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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JUNE 1979 Alternative Measures of the Monetary Base Do Rising U.S. Interest Rates Imply A Stronger Dollar? . V ol. 61, N o. 6 Alternative Measures of the Monetary Base ALBERT E. BURGER J3 e C A U S E this Bank has long considered the monetary base an important variable in economic analysis, it has published monetary base data since Au gust 1968 and has published numerous articles explain ing the derivation of the monetary base and its uses in monetary analysis.1 Several months ago, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (BOG) be gan publishing monetary base data in their H.3 and H.9 Statistical Releases and in the Federal Reserve Bul letin. Beginning on March 16, 1979, they published two monetary base series: a level series which did not incorporate the effects of reserve requirement changes and a growth rate series which incorporated such effects. Since the St. Louis series is adjusted for these effects, this Bank designated it the “Adjusted Mone tary Base” to facilitate a clearer public differentiation between the alternative monetary base levels then being published. On June 15, 1979, the BOG began publishing the adjusted monetary base from which their previously published growth rate series had been derived. There are several important differences among the various monetary base series now being published. 'This Bank publishes monetary base data in its weekly publi cation, “U.S. Financial Data,” and its monthly publication, “Monetary Trends.” See also Leonall C. Andersen and Jerry L. Jordan, “The Monetary Base — Explanation and Analytical Use,” this Review (August 1968), pp. 7-11; Albert E. Burger, Lionel Kalish III, and Christopher T. Babb, “Money Stock Control and Its Implications for Monetary Policy,” this Review (October 1971), pp. 6-22; Albert E. Burger, “Explanation of the Growth of the Money Stock: 1974-Early 1975,” this Re view (September 1975), pp. 5-10; Albert E. Burger, “The Relationship Between Monetary Base and Money: How This article explains the key distinctions between the series in order to clarify the public’s understanding of these differences. Computation of the Unadjusted Monetary Base: Similarities and Differences The St. Louis unadjusted base and the unadjusted monetary base initially published by the BOG have much in common. The basic components of both are (1) member bank deposits at Federal Reserve Banks and (2) currency in circulation, which consists of currency held by the nonbank public and vault cash in commercial banks. Also, as shown in Table I, the largest “source” of the unadjusted monetary base is Federal Reserve holdings of Government securities, which accounts for about 80 percent of the total. Two minor ways in which computation of the St. Louis and the BOG unadjusted monetary base differ are in the methods of (1) treatment of member bank vault cash and (2) seasonal adjustment of data. They differ primarily in the degree of emphasis placed on the “sources” relative to the “uses” of the monetary Close?” this Review (October 1975), pp. 3-8; Leonall C. Andersen, “Selection of a Monetary Aggregate for Economic Stabilization,” this Review (October 1975), pp. 9-15; Anatol B. Balbach and Albert E. Burger, “Derivation of the Mone tary Base,” this Review (November 1976), pp. 2-8; Albert E. Burger and Robert H. Rasche, “Revision of the Monetary Base,” this Review (July 1977), pp. 13-23; and Leonall C. Andersen and Denis S. Kamosky, “Some Considerations in the Use of the Monetary Aggregates for the Implementation of Monetary Policy,” this Review (September 1977), pp. 2-7. Page 3 JUNE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S 1979 T a b le 1 Sources a n d Uses o f the U nadju sted M o n e t a r y B a s e 1 ( M illio n s of D o lla rs) U se s S o u rc e s2 M e m b e r B a n k D e p osits at Fed eral Reserve B a n k s Fed eral Reserve Credit H o ld in g s o f G o ve rn m e n t Securities $ 1 1 4 ,9 6 3 D iscou nts a n d A d v a n c e s 1 ,3 9 6 Float 6 ,4 0 7 O th e r Fed e ral Reserve A sse ts $ 2 9 ,8 4 4 C urren cy in C ircu lation 6 ,2 8 8 C u rre n cy H eld b y the Public V a u lt C a sh o f B a n k s U n a d ju ste d M o n e ta r y B a se 1 0 1 ,7 0 0 1 4 ,1 0 0 $ 1 4 5 ,6 4 4 O th e r Sou rces of M o n e ta r y B a se G o ld Stock 1 1 ,3 2 8 S p e cia l D ra w in g Rights T re a su ry C u rre n cy O u t s ta n d in g T re a su ry D e p osits at Fed eral Reserve B a n k s 1 ,8 0 0 1 2 ,3 4 9 — 3 ,2 7 0 T re a su ry C a sh H o ld in g s — 378 Foreign D e p o sits with Federal Reserve B a n k s — 284 O th e r Liabilities & C a p ita l A ccou nts -4 ,2 9 3 O th e r Fed e ral Reserve D ep osits — U n a d ju ste d M o n e t a r y B ase 662 $ 1 4 5 ,6 4 4 1 Monthly averages o f daily figures fo r June 1979, not seasonally adjusted. 2The sign attached to each item indicates its direction o f influence on the monetary base. F or example, the item Treasury deposits at Federal Reserve Banks has a negative sign attached to it because an increase in these deposits reduces bank reserves and currency held by the public. base (Table I). In general, these differences result in only small divergences between the growth rates of the two unadjusted monetary base series, as shown in Table II. Vault Cash — The BOG unadjusted monetary base series includes the vault cash that member banks can use to meet their reserve requirements in the current week. Under the present system of lagged reserve ac counting, this consists of vault cash held by member banks two weeks earlier ( the member bank vault cash component of member bank reserves as reported in the Federal Reserve Bulletin). Since the St. Louis un adjusted monetary base is computed from a balance sheet identity (the sources of the base equal its uses), the current week’s member bank vault cash appears in this series. Seasonal Adjustment — The monetary base is “used” by commercial banks as member bank reserves and vault cash held by nonmember banks, and is also “used” by the nonbank public as currency. These items represent the demand for the base. The Board of Governors seasonally adjusts each of these three use components of the base separately, then totals them to obtain its unadjusted monetary base. In contrast, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis focuses on the “sources” of the monetary base, which reflect the factors that change the total amount of base supplied Page 4 to the public and banks. Consequently, the source components of the base are first totalled (with ap propriate sign), then this total is seasonally adjusted. The Rationale for Adjusting the Monetary Base for Changes in Reserve Requirements The monetary base has three main characteristics that make it useful in monetary analysis. First, it com prises the set of assets that constrain the amount of money supplied to the public. Second, it can be measured and controlled on a short-term basis by the Federal Reserve. Finally, it can be used as a sum- ’ mary measure of the net effect of Federal Reserve actions on the money stock.2 The monetary base incorporates the effects of two of the three major direct Federal Reserve actions that influence the money stock: open market operations (changes in Federal Reserve holdings of Government 2In the Report of the Advisory Committee on Monetary Statis tics, “Improving the Monetary Aggregates,” Board of Gov ernors of the Federal Reserve System (June 1976), p. 8, the Advisory Committee on Monetary Statistics acknowledged the importance of the monetary base, noting that “it is the total among those considered here that can probably be most ac curately measured and most precisely controlled by the Fed [and] . . . this total does have the great advantage of being less subject to influence by financial innovations than are broader totals. Hence, we recommend that the Fed regularly publish figures on the base . . . ” F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S JUNE T a b le II G ro w th T a b le III Rates o f the St. Louis a n d Board of Govern ors Unadjusted M o netary Base Series: G row th Rates o f the St. Louis Adjusted an d U nadjusted M o n e ta ry Base Series.- Selected Periods Selected Periods of Reserve Requirement of Reserve Requirem ent C h a n g e s Changes (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates) (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R ate s) Period St. Louis U n a d ju ste d M o n e ta r y B ase Series B o a rd o f G o v e rn o rs U n ad ju ste d M o n e ta r y B a se S e rie s 1 Difference 1 .7 % 1 .6 % A m o u n t of Reserves R elea sed b y C h a n g e s In L e ga l Reserve Requirem ent Ratios 0 .1 % Period 11/6 2 -1 / 6 3 1979 St. Louis A d juste d M o n e ta r y B a se Series St. Louis U n a d ju ste d M o n e ta r y B a se Series Difference 1/6 3 -1 1 / 6 6 5 .4 5 .4 0 .0 11 6 2 -1 / 6 3 / 4 .3 % 1 .7 % 2 .6 % I I / 6 6 - IV / 6 6 5 .4 5 .7 -0 .3 1/6 3 -1 1/6 6 5 .8 5 .4 0 .4 IV / 6 6 - II/ 6 7 3 .8 4.2 -0 .4 I I / 6 6 - IV / 6 6 3 .5 5 .4 -1.9 -8 6 5 I I / 6 7 - IV / 6 7 7 .2 7 .0 0 .2 IV / 6 6 - II/ 6 7 5 .9 3.8 2.1 850 IV / 6 7 - 1 / 6 8 9 .0 8 .7 0 .3 I I / 6 7 - IV / 6 7 6 .8 7 .2 -0 .4 1 / 6 8 -1 / 6 9 7.1 7 .0 0.1 IV / 6 7 - 1 / 6 8 7 .3 9 .0 -1 .7 1/6 9 -1 1 / 6 9 6 .0 6.2 -0 .2 1 / 6 8 -1 / 6 9 6.5 7.1 -0 .6 0 11/69-111/69 1.5 2.8 -1 .3 1 / 69-11/69 3 .0 6 .0 -3 .0 -6 6 0 I I I / 6 9 - IV / 6 9 7 .6 6 .7 0 .9 11/69-111/69 3 .6 1.5 2.1 0 -0 .3 III/ 6 9 - IV / 6 9 5 .4 7 .6 -2 .2 -4 1 5 $ 770 0 0 -5 5 0 IV / 69-111/70 5 .6 5 .9 II I / 7 0 - I / 7 3 6 .4 6 .3 0.1 IV / 6 9 - I I I / 7 0 6 .4 5 .6 0.8 I/ 7 3 -IV / 7 3 9 .8 10.1 -0 .3 111/70-1/73 8 .0 6 .4 1.6 3 ,7 0 0 IV / 7 3 - 1 / 7 7 6 .3 6.2 0.1 I/ 7 3 - I V / 7 3 7 .6 9 .8 -2 .2 -1 ,3 1 5 I/ 7 7 - I II/ 7 8 8.8 8 .9 - 0 .1 IV / 7 3 - 1 / 7 7 8.3 6 .3 2 .0 4,1 3 5 111/78-1/79 1 2 .2 1 2 .0 0 .2 I/ 7 7 - I I I / 7 8 9 .3 8.8 0 .5 0 III/ 7 8 - I/ 7 9 8 .0 1 2 .2 -4 .2 -3 ,0 0 0 0 'These growth rales are computed from the levels o f m onetary base initially published by the Board o f Governors in the March 16, 1979 Statistical Release H.3. securities) and Federal Reserve Bank loans to mem ber banks. However, it excludes the effects on the monetary aggregates of the third major direct policy action, changes in legal reserve requirement ratios. If the monetary base is to be used as a measure that summarizes the effects of all Federal Reserve actions on the monetary aggregates, the effects of reserve re quirement changes must also be included in the com putation of the base. If legal reserve requirement ratios were never changed and were uniform for all banks and all sizes of deposits, growth rates of both an adjusted and an unadjusted monetary base would be virtually the same. For example, there were no changes in legal reserve requirement ratios that noticeably affected required reserves from 1/63 to 11/66 and from 1/77 to 111/78. During these periods, the growth rates of all of the monetary base series, both adjusted and un adjusted, were approximately the same (Tables II and III). However, whenever legal reserve requirement ratios are changed, the growth rates of a monetary base that incorporates these effects and one that does not in corporate these effects usually diverge markedly. This is what happened, for example, at the end of 1978. During the first ten months of that year, the growth rate of the “base” was about 10 percent regardless of the base measure used. However, from October 1978 to February 1979, an adjusted series indicates a decel eration in base growth to a 6.3 percent rate. In sharp contrast, a growth rate calculated using the levels of an unadjusted series, shows an acceleration in base growth to a 12.7 percent rate. This difference occurred in the November-December period when a change in reserve requirement ratios on time deposits (Table IV) increased member bank required reserves by about $3 billion. A monetary base that incorporates the effect of higher reserve requirements indicates that the base grew at a 6.6 percent rate during this period. A monetary base that does not include such an adjustment indicates a 21.8 percent rate of growth. This is not an isolated instance of the importance of incorporating the impact of changes in reserve requirements into a monetary base measure. Between mid-1960 and early 1977, the Board of Governors made Page 5 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S JUNE 1979 T a b le IV C h a n g e s in Legal Reserve Requirement Ratios Change Effective D ate Se p te m b e r 1, 1 9 6 0 The reserve requirem ent o f central reserve city b a n k s a g a in s t their net d e m a n d d e p o sits w a s reduced from 18 percent to 1 7 % percent. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 1 2 0 m illion. Novem ber 24, 1 9 6 0 T he reserve req u ire m e nt o f co un try b a n k s a g a in s t their net d e m a n d d e p o sits w a s in cre a se d from percent to 12 percent. This action in cre a se d req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 8 0 m illion. Decem ber 1, 1 9 6 0 The reserve requirem ent of central reserve city b a n k s a g a in s t their net d e m a n d d e p o sits w a s reduced from 1 7 % percent to 1 6 % percent. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 2 5 0 m illion. O cto b e r 2 5 , The reserve requirem ent o f reserve city b a n k s a g a in s t their time d e p o sits w a s reduced from 5 percent to 4 percent. T his action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 4 1 0 m illion. 1962 11 N o v e m b e r 1, 1 9 6 2 T he reserve requirem ent of co un try b a n k s a g a in s t their time d e p o sits w a s reduced from 5 percent to 4 percent. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 6 0 m illion. J u ly 1 4 , 1 9 6 6 The reserve requirem ent o f reserve city b a n k s a g a in s t time d e p o sits (o th e r tha n s a v in g s d e p o sits) in excess o f $ 5 m illion w a s in cre a se d from 4 percent to 5 percent. This action in cre a se d re q u ire d re serves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 5 0 m illion. J u ly 2 1 , The reserve req u ire m e nt o f co un try b a n k s a g a in s t time d e p o sits (oth er tha n s a v in g s d e p o sits) in excess o f $ 5 m illion w a s in cre a se d from 4 percent to 5 percent. This a ction in cre a se d re q u ire d re serves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 7 0 m illion. 1966 Se p te m b e r 8, 1 9 6 6 The reserve requirem ent of reserve city b a n k s a g a in s t time d e p o sits (oth e r tha n s a v in g s d e p o sits) in excess o f $ 5 m illion w a s in cre a se d from 5 percent to 6 percent. This a ction in cre a se d req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 7 0 m illion. Se p te m b e r The reserve requirem ent o f co un try b a n k s a g a in s t time d e p o sits (o th e r tha n s a v in g s d e p o sits) in excess of $ 5 m illion w a s in cre a se d from 5 percent to 6 percent. This action in cre a se d req u ire d re serve s a p p ro x im a te ly $ 7 5 m illion. 15, 1 9 6 6 M a rc h 2, 1 9 6 7 The reserve requirem ent o f all m em ber b a n k s a g a in s t s a v in g s d e p o sits a n d the first $ 5 m illion of time d e p o sits w a s reduced from 4 percent to 3 % percent. This action red u ced re q u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 4 2 5 m illion. M a rc h 16, 1 9 6 7 The reserve req u ire m e nt o f all m em ber b a n k s a g a in s t s a v in g s d e p o sits a n d the first $ 5 m illion o f time d e p o sits w a s reduced from 3 % percent to 3 percent. T his action reduced re q u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 4 2 5 m illion. Jan uary 11, 1 9 6 8 T he reserve requirem ent o f reserve city b a n k s a g a in s t net d e m a n d d e p o sits in excess o f $ 5 m illion w a s in creased from 1 6 % percent to 1 7 percent. T his action in cre a se d req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 6 0 m illion. J a n u a r y 1 8, 1 9 6 8 The reserve requirem ent of co u n try b a n k s a g a in s t net d e m a n d d e p o sits in excess o f $ 5 m illion w a s in creased from 1 2 percent to 12 % percent. T his action in creased re q u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 1 9 0 m illion. A p ril The reserve requirem ent of a ll m em ber b a n k s a g a in s t net d e m a n d d e p o sits w a s in crea sed c e n ta ge point. This action in crea sed re q u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 6 6 0 m illion. 17, 1 9 6 9 % p e r O c to b e r 1 6, 1 9 6 9 A 1 0 percent m a rg in a l reserve requirem ent w a s e sta b lish e d o n certain fo re ig n b o rro w in g s, p rim a rily E u ro d o lla rs, b y m em ber b a n k s a n d o n the sa le o f a sse ts to their fo re ig n bra nche s. This action in cre ase d req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 4 1 5 m illion. O c to b e r 1, 1 9 7 0 The reserve requirem ent o f a ll m em ber b a n k s a g a in s t time d e p o sits (oth er than s a v in g s d e p o sits) in excess o f $ 5 m illion w a s reduced from 6 percent to 5 percent. A t the sa m e time, a 5 p ercent re serve requirem ent w a s im p ose d a g a in s t fu n d s o b ta in e d b y m em ber b a n k s th ro u g h the issu a n c e o f com m ercial p a p e r b y their affiliates. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 5 0 0 m illion (n e t). 30 adjustments to legal reserve requirement ratios, as shown in Table IV. Twenty-five of these adjustments took place in the approximately 10-year period from mid-1966 to early 1977. Table III shows that these changes frequently resulted in a divergence of 2 to 3 percentage points between the growth rates of an adjusted and an unadjusted measure of monetary base. More important, the direction of change was usually different — one measure indicating an acceleration in the base, the other measure indicating a deceleration or no change in the growth rate. The data in Table III show a consistent relation ship between the difference in the growth rates of the two base series and changes in legal reserve re quirements. For example, during a period when re serve requirement ratios were increased (denoted in Table III by a minus sign preceding the amount of F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S Effective D ate JUNE 1979 Change J a n u a r y 7, 1 9 7 1 The reserve p e rce n tage req u ire d to be m a in ta in e d a g a in s t certain fo re ig n b o rro w in g s, p rim a rily E u ro d o lla rs, b y m em ber b a n k s , a n d the sa le o f a sse ts to their fo re ig n b ra n c h e s w a s ra ise d from 1 0 p e r cent to 2 0 percent. This action h a d little effect on req u ire d reserves. N o v e m b e r 9, 1 9 7 2 R e g u la tio n s D a n d J w ere revised to ( 1 ) a d o p t a system o f reserve req u ire m e nts a g a in s t d e m a n d d e p o sits o f a ll m em ber b a n k s b a se d on the a m ou n t of such d e p o sits h e ld b y a m em ber b a n k , a n d ( 2 ) to re q u ire b a n k s — m em ber a n d n on m e m b e r — to p a y cash item s p re se n te d b y a Federal Reserve B a n k c n the d a y o f p re sen ta tion in fu n d s a v a ila b le to the Reserve B a n k o n that d a y . These c h a n g e s reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 2 . 5 b illion , effective N o v e m b e r 9 ; $ 1 . 0 b illion, effective N o v e m b e r 1 6 ; a n d in crea sed req u ire d reserves $ 3 0 0 m illion, effective N o v e m b e r 23. Ju n e 2 1 , The B o a rd a m e n d e d its R e g u la tio n D to esta b lish a m a rg in a l reserve requirem ent o f 8 percent a g a in s t certain time d e p o sits a n d to subject to the 8 percent reserve req u ire m e nt certain d e p o sits exem pt from the rate lim itation s of the B o a r d 's R e g u la tio n Q . In a d d itio n , reserves a g a in s t certain fo re ig n branch d e p o sits w ere reduced from 1 0 percent to 8 percent. T he se c h a n g e s h a d little effect on req u ire d reserves. 1973 J u ly 1 2 , 1 9 7 3 Reserve requirem ents w ere im p ose d a g a in s t finance bills. T his action in cre a se d req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 9 0 m illion. J u ly 1 9 , 1 9 7 3 The reserve requirem ent a g a in s t a ll net d e m a n d d e p o sits, except the first $ 2 m illion, w a s in creased % p e rce n ta ge point. This action in crea sed req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 7 6 0 m illion. O cto b e r 4, 1 9 7 3 The m a rg in a l reserve req u ire m e nt a g a in s t certain time d e p o sits w a s in crea sed from percent. This action in creased req uired reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 4 6 5 m illion. 8 percent to 11 D ecem ber 2 7 , The m a rg in a l reserve requirem ent a g a in s t certain time d e p o sits w a s reduced percent. T his action reduced re q u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 6 0 m illion. 11 1973 from percent to 8 Se p te m b e r 1 9, 1 9 7 4 The m a rg in a l reserve req u ire m e nt a g a in s t time d e p o sits in d e n o m in a tio n s gre a te r tha n $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 a n d m ore than fo u r-m on th m aturity w a s elim ina ted. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 5 1 0 m illion. D ecem ber 1 2 , 1 9 7 4 The reserve requirem ent a g a in s t a ll time d e p o sits with a n o r ig in a l m aturity of six m onths o r lo n g e r w as red u ced from 5 percent to 3 percent; the reserve requirem ent a g a in s t a ll time d e p o sits with a n o r ig in a l m aturity o f less than six m onths w a s in cre a se d from 5 to 6 percent; a n d the reserve re q u ire m ent a g a in s t net d e m a n d d ep o sits o v e r $ 4 0 0 m illion w a s reduced from 18 percent to 1 7 % percent. In a d d itio n , the 3 percent m a rg in a l reserve requirem ent o n la rg e certificates o f d e p o sit w ith an initial m aturity o f less than fo u r m onths w a s rem oved. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p r o x i m ate ly $ 7 1 0 m illion. F e b ru a ry 13, 1 9 7 5 The reserve req u ire m e nt a g a in s t a ll ca te g orie s o f net d e m a n d d e p o sits up to $ 4 0 0 m illion w a s re d uced b y % p e rce n tage point, a n d the reserve requirem ent a g a in s t net d e m a n d d e p o sits of m ore than $ 4 0 0 m illion w a s reduced 1 p erce nta ge point. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 1 , 0 6 5 m illion. M ay 1975 The reserve req u ire m e nt a g a in s t fo re ign b o rro w in g s o f m em ber b a n k s, p rim a rily E u ro d o lla rs, w a s reduced from 8 percent to 4 percent. This action reduced req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 8 0 m illion. 22, O cto b e r 3 0 , 1975 The reserve requirem ent a g a in s t m em ber b a n k time d e p o sits with a n o r ig in a l m aturity o f fo u r y e a rs o r m ore w a s reduced from 3 percent to 1 percent. This action red u ced req u ire d reserves a p p r o x i m ately $ 3 6 0 m illion. J a n u a r y 8, 1 9 7 6 The reserve requirem ent on time d e p o sits m a tu ring in 1 8 0 d a y s to 4 y e a rs w a s reduced from 3 p e r cent to 2 % percent. This action reduced req u ire d reserves b y a p p ro x im a te ly $ 5 0 0 m illion. D ecem ber 3 0 , The reserve requirem ent a g a in s t net d e m a n d d e p o sits u p to $ 1 0 m illion w a s reduced b y % p erce nt a g e p oint, a n d the reserve requirem ent a g a in s t net d e m a n d d ep o sits o v e r $ 1 0 m illion w a s reduced b y % p e rce n tage point. This action reduced req u ire d reserves b y a p p ro x im a te ly $ 5 5 0 m illion. 1976 N o v e m b e r 2, 1 9 7 8 A su p p le m e n ta ry reserve req u ire m e nt o f 2 p e rce n ta ge p oin ts w a s im p o se d on time $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 o r more. This action in cre a se d req u ire d reserves a p p ro x im a te ly $ 3 . 0 billion. reserves released), an unadjusted monetary base ex hibits a faster growth rate than one which has been adjusted. The opposite is clearly the case when reserve requirement ratios are lowered. The growth rates of the two monetary base series diverge primarily because the Federal Reserve tends to use open market operations to offset the effects of changes in reserve requirement ratios. An increase in d e p o sits of reserve requirement ratios, by itself, leads to a sharp rise in the Federal funds rate. Since the Federal Re serve usually follows a policy of preventing sharp fluctuations in the Federal funds rate, it engages in open market operations (increases its rate of purchases of Government securities) to offset the impact of the rise in reserve requirement ratios on interest rates. The effect of open market operations is included in an unadjusted base series, but the opposite effect of Page 7 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S the increase in reserve requirement ratios is not. Con sequently, an unadjusted series shows an acceleration in base growth. When reserve requirement ratios are lowered, the opposite prevails: the unadjusted series shows a reduction in the growth rate of the mone tary base. Therefore, during periods when legal reserve re quirement ratios are changed, an unadjusted series JUNE 1979 gives a misleading indication of both the “intent” and the “effect” of Federal Reserve policy actions. It would be hard to argue that the intent of raising re serve requirement ratios is to “ease” monetary policy, or the intent of lowering them is to “tighten” policy. Furthermore, the only way one can actually judge the effect of such actions on the monetary aggregates is to balance them against the impact of contemporane ous open market operations. Alternative Adjustments for Reserve Requirement Changes This Bank uses the reserve adjustment magnitude ( RAM) to incorporate into the monetary base measure the effects of changes in legal reserve requirement ratios on the monetary aggregates. In general, the computation of RAM involves the following steps:3 (1 ) For the week in which reserve requirements against deposits, net demand or time and sav ings, change due to a change in Regulation D, required reserves are calculated on both the old and the new reserve requirement basis for the type of deposits affected. (1 ) Determine the distribution of member bank de mand and time deposits subject to reserve re quirements according to reserve requirement categories two weeks earlier. ( 2 ) The ratio of “new” required reserves to “old” required reserves for the particular deposit type is calculated and this ratio is applied to actual required reserves for that deposit type for all weeks prior to the change in Regulation D. (2 ) Compare the current reserve requirement ratio with the corresponding 1929 equivalent ratio for each reserve requirement category. Multiply the difference between the 1929 equivalent ratio and the current ratio by the amount of deposits in that category two weeks earlier. If the current reserve requirement ratio exceeds the 1929 ratio, RAM is reduced. If the current ratio is less than the 1929 ratio, RAM is increased. (3 ) Subtract the amount of required reserves on all deposits subject to special reserve requirements. (4 ) Add the amount of waiver privileges. (5 ) Add the amount of vault cash held by member banks two weeks earlier. The BOG uses an alternate approach to comput ing RAM for the adjusted monetary base series they began publishing on June 15, 1979. The BOG com putation involves the following steps:4 •"'The derivation and computation of RAM is described in detail in Burger and Rasche, “Revision of the Monetary Base,” p. 22. 4For a technical description of the method used by the BOG to adjust their monetary base, contact the Banking Section of the Division of Research and Statistics at the Board of Gov ernors in Washington, D. C. Page 8 ( 3 ) As the ratio is applied back through time, it is adjusted for earlier breaks in series due to changes in Regulation D by multiplying the cur rent ratio by the ratio calculated at the time of the previous change in Regulation D. (This pro cedure is carried back, weekly, to January 1959; monthly averages are derived from prorations of the weekly data.) (4 ) Adjustments for breaks in series due to changes in Regulations D and M affecting other reservable liabilities (i.e., commercial paper, finance bills, Eurodollar borrowings, and marginal re serve requirements against large denomination ($100,000 or more) CDs in effect from mid1973 to late 1974) are made additively. That is, required reserves for earlier periods are raised or lowered by the estimated difference in reserve requirements that would have been implied if the regulation had been in effect in earlier periods. The major difference between these two alternate procedures is that the BOG method requires that a new historically adjusted series which reflects the latest reserve requirement be constructed each time Regu lation D or M changes. In contrast, the St. Louis ap proach leaves the past data unaltered. Do Rising U.S. Interest Rates Imply A Stronger Dollar? DOUGLAS R. MUDD ECENT U.S. monetary actions have been viewed, in part, as a reaction to the rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar on foreign exchange markets over much of last year. Typical of this view is the statement: “The U.S. Federal Reserve . . . confirmed its determi nation to push U.S. money market interest rates higher to support the dollar.”1 This view interprets rising U.S. interest rates as both an incentive for investors to purchase U.S. financial assets instead of foreign securities and a deterrent to U.S. residents’ spending on goods and services, including imports. Such an interpretation may be consistent with short-run analysis. Over an extended period of time, however, rising U.S. interest rates are not necessarily accompanied by a rising foreign exchange value of the dollar. Moreover, this short-run view of the rela tionship between changes in U.S. interest rates and movements in the foreign exchange value of the dol lar is not supported by a casual examination of recent data. For example, both long- and short-term U.S. in terest rates rose, on average, relative to foreign interest rates from late 1977 to late 1978. In addition, U.S. in terest rates generally were higher than foreign interest 1Stewart Fleming and Peter Riddell, “Fed Confirms Aim to Raise Interest Rates in Aid of Financial Times, July 24, 1979. Also see Robert A. Bennett, “Fed Raises Rates to Aid Dollar,” New York Times, July 21, 1979. rates during this period. Yet, the weighted-average foreign exchange value of the dollar declined 17 per cent between September 1977 and October 1978 (see Chart I ) .2 This article examines the relationship between changes in the U.S.-foreign interest rate differential and movements in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. The analysis is consistent with recent events and emphasizes the role of monetary disturbances in determining movements in both exchange rates and interest rates. Changes in Money Stock Growth and Interest Rate Movements The nation’s money stock grows primarily through Federal Reserve purchases of government securities. To induce holders of securities to sell, the Federal Reserve offers them more than the currently prevail ing market price for their securities. As a result, the price of government securities rises and the interest 2The countries included in the weighted-average foreign in terest rate and exchange rate series are Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The weights and formula used in constructing these series are from “Index of the Weighted-Average Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar: Revision,’ Federal Reserve Bulletin (August 1978), p. 700. Page 9 Chart I Foreign Exchange V a lu e of the U.S. Dollar a n d Interest Rate Differentials Ratio Scale Ratio Scale Sources: Federal Rese rve Statistical Release H.13; Federal Rese rve Bulletin; Intern ational M o n e t a ry Fund, Intern ational F in ancial Statistics. L i S e c o n d a r y market rates for 9 0 - d a y la rg e certificates of d e p o s it in the United S tates less the weighted a v e r a g e of foreig n three-month m oney market rates. 12 U.S. lo n g -t e rm g o v e r n m e n t b o n d y i e ld s less the w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e of fo re ig n long-term g o v e r n m e n t b o n d y ie ld s . Latest da ta plotted: M a y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S rate declines. Thus, an acceleration in money stock growth is associated, at least initially, with a decline in interest rates. Conversely, a deceleration in money stock growth initially is accompanied by a rise in interest rates. An acceleration in money stock growth, however, is unlikely to produce permanently lower interest rates. One factor that would produce upward pressure on interest rates following an acceleration in money stock growth is an acceleration in the growth of aggregate spending. The acceleration in spending growth could be viewed as a direct result of the acceleration in money stock growth or as a result of the stimulation of consumption and investment spending by the initial decline in interest rates. In either case, an acceleration in spending would be accompanied by an acceleration in the growth of the quantity of credit demanded (to finance the accelerated pace of investment and con sumption spending). If the rate at which the quantity of credit demanded grows more rapidly than the rate at which credit is being supplied, the price of credit (the interest rate on loans) rises. The longer-term impact of faster money stock growth on the rate of inflation is another factor which would exert upward pressure on interest rates. Over longer periods of time, a sustained acceleration in the growth of aggregate spending will increase the rate of inflation (given that output growth is constrained in the long run by real factors which are unaffected by monetary disturbances). It is generally accepted that movements in interest rates are, to some extent, influenced by changes in the expected rate of inflation.3 If, for example, the interest rate is 6 percent and the price level is con stant ( that is, the inflation rate is zero), then the “real interest rate” would be 6 percent. Now, suppose in flation is widely expected to increase from zero to a 3 percent rate. Lenders would then require a 9 percent return on funds loaned (to prevent the real value of interest income and principal from fall ing) and borrowers would generally be willing to accept a 9 percent interest rate.4 Thus, factors that cause an increase in the expected rate of inflation also 3See Irving Fisher, The Theory of Interest (New York: Kelley & Millman, Inc., 1954), pp. 36-44. 4This example is oversimplified in several respects. However, the basic point that an increased value of the expected rate of inflation raises nominal interest rates remains valid. For a concise theoretical discussion, see Robert Mundell, “Inflation and Real Interest,” Journal of Political Economy (June 1963), pp. 280-83. JUNE 1979 produce upward pressure on interest rates. One such factor is a sustained acceleration in monev stock growth. Within the context of this discussion, an accelera tion in money stock growth initially will be associ ated with a decline in interest rates. If, in the longrun, however, the real interest rate is unaffected by monetary disturbances and the acceleration of money stock growth is sustained, interest rates ultimately will rise.5 In other words, changes in money stock growth initially are related inversely to changes in in terest rates, but, in the long-run, money stock growth, the inflation rate, and interest rates all move in the same direction. Changes in Money Stock Growth and Exchange Rate Movements When a currency is traded in foreign exchange markets, the exchange rates which evolve are the prices of that currency in terms of each of the other currencies traded. Thus, relative changes in the total amounts of these national moneys supplied and demanded will determine exchange rate move ments. Only if the amounts of all national moneys de manded increase at the same rate would relative changes in money stock growth rates alone determine exchange rate movements. For example, suppose that growth in both the U.S. and German money stocks equal the rates at which the amounts of these national moneys demanded increase. Assume that interest rates in both countries are equal and that neither central government inter venes in the foreign exchange market. Now let U.S. money stock growth accelerate. As previously dis cussed, this acceleration, at first, will be accom panied by a decline in U.S. interest rates. Initially, given interest rates in Germany, U.S. capital outflows will be encouraged (that is, the rate at which U.S. residents invest in German securities will rise) and German capital outflows would be discour aged (the rate at which German residents invest in U.S. securities will fall). This results in an increase in the amount of dollars supplied in the foreign exchange market (by U.S. residents wishing 5For a more technical theoretical discussion of this relationship, see Milton Friedman, “Factors Affecting the Level of Interest Rates,” in John T. Boorman and Thomas M. Havrilesky, Money Supply, Money Demand, and Macroeconomic Models (Northbrook, 111.: AHM Publishing Corporation, 1972), pp. 200-18. For empirical support of this view, see William E. Gibson, “Interest Rates and Monetary Policy,” Journal of Political Economy (May/June 1970), pp. 431-55. Page 11 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S to purchase marks to invest in German securities) relative to the amount of dollars demanded (by Ger man residents desiring dollars to spend in the United States). Therefore, the U.S. dollar price of one Ger man mark will be subject to upward pressure — the dollar will fall in value on the foreign exchange market. The stimulative effect of the U.S. monetary expan sion on the growth of U.S. income and spending will also contribute to this downward pressure on the value of the dollar. In other words, the rate at which U.S. residents purchase both domestic and German goods and services will rise. This acceleration in U.S. im port growth will also contribute to the acceleration in the rate at which dollars are supplied on foreign exchange markets.® If the faster pace of U.S. money stock growth con tinues, the U.S. inflation rate will eventually rise. Thus, the faster U.S. money stock growth will tend to increase the expected future rate of U.S. inflation. This, in turn, will cause U.S. interest rates to rise relative to German interest rates. The increase in the U.S.-German interest rate differential, however, will not necessarily produce capital flows from Germany into the United States. Instead, the foreign exchange value of the dollar might depreciate at the same time that U.S. interest rates are higher than, and rise rela tive to, German interest rates. Interest Hate Differentials and Exchange Rate Movements The preceding analysis indicates that U.S. interest rates could be both higher than, and rise relative to, foreign interest rates without providing an in centive for foreign investors to increase their pur chases of U.S. securities (or U.S. investors to de crease their purchases of foreign securities). The reason for this is that the difference between U.S. and foreign interest rates is, in fact, not the rele vant factor in inducing capital flows. Rather, the in terest rate differential adjusted for expected future exchange rates is the relevant factor inducing inter national capital flows. Exchange rate expectations, interest rate differen tials, and exchange rates will, in the absence of 6The acceleration in U.S. import growth would accelerate in come growth in the German export sector. However, from a monetarist viewpoint, German aggregate income growth would remain constant since German money stock growth is constant. This implies a deceleration in income growth in other sectors of the German economy. Page 12 JUNE 1979 controls on international capital flows, be related ac cording to the equilibrium condition, (1 ) (1 + r„.) —i - . (1 + rf ) x‘, where, ru = the U.S. interest rate s it = the foreign interest rate x=the spot (currently prevailing) U.S. dollar/foreign currency exchange rate x' = the expected future value of the U.S. dollar/foreign currency exchange rate. Consider the following example. Suppose the spot U.S. dollar/German mark exchange rate is $.33/DM and that the value of the dollar in terms of the mark is expected to decline to $.36/DM during the next year (an expected depreciation of 9 percent). Suppose the interest rate on one-year German Treasury bills was 5 percent, so that $1.00 could be used to purchase 3.03 marks which would yield 3.18 marks (DM3.03 • (1 + .05)) after one year. When the marks are converted back to dollars, U.S. investors expect to receive $1.14 (DM3.18 • ($.36/DM)). If U.S. investors could earn $1.14 on a $1.00 investment in U.S. Treasury bills, the U.S. interest rate would be 14 percent and no capital flows would occur. Thus, in equilibrium, the differen tial between U.S. and foreign interest rates equals the expected dollar-denominated return on investments in foreign securities.7 This can be expressed (2) r„» — it — (“ - 1) • (1 + r f ), y e where (-----1) is the expected change in the foreign x exchange value of the dollar. If U.S. interest rates rise relative to foreign interest rates and equation (2) holds, the foreign ex change value of the dollar could decline (that is, x could rise), but the expected future foreign ex change value of the dollar could decline even faster (xe could rise faster). In other words, for given levels of foreign interest rates, a rising U.S. interest rate could be offset by progressively larger declines in the expected foreign exchange value of the dollar. 7Although this relationship does not hold exactly, the differ ences between the interest rate differential and the forward premium or discount (the expected change in the exchange rate) may reflect the existence of transactions costs and polit ical risk (for example, the likelihood that a country will im pose exchange controls). See Jacob A. Frenkel and Richard M. Levich, “Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?” Journal of Political Economy (April 1975), pp. 325-38 and Robert Z. Aliber, “The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation,” Journal o f Political Economy ( November/ December 1973), pp. 1451-59. F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S One explanation for the occurrence of this situa tion is that monetary disturbances dominate both changes in interest rates and exchange rates. As previ ously discussed, a sustained acceleration in U.S. money stock growth will ultimately result in an increase in the expected rate of inflation. This, in turn, produces an increase in U.S. interest rates. Given the expected foreign rate of inflation, the differential between U.S. and foreign interest rates will be rising. Simul taneously, the faster rate of U.S. spending growth would produce a declining foreign exchange value of the dollar. In addition, if U.S. money stock growth and inflation are expected to continue at the faster pace, the expected future value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets will tend to decline faster.8 Summary The assertion that rising U.S. interest rates (rela tive to foreign rates) produce an increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar has not been supported by recent experience. If monetary dis turbances are important determinants of changes in both interest rates and exchange rates, a widen ing positive differential between U.S. and foreign interest rates and a declining foreign exchange value of the dollar are consistent developments. If the ex pected rate of U.S. inflation increases because of a sustained acceleration in U.S. money stock growth 8These results have been derived by assuming that current accelerations in U.S. money stock growth and inflation are important variables in the formulation of increases in the expected rate of inflation which, in turn, is important in de termining changes in the expected foreign exchange value of the dollar. JUNE 1979 ( while foreign expected rates of inflation remain rela tively stable), U.S. interest rates will rise relative to foreign interest rates. The faster pace of U.S. money stock growth also will produce an increase in U.S. spending growth, which, in turn, will result in a de preciating foreign exchange value of the dollar. If the higher expected rate of U.S. inflation also results in an offsetting decline in the expected value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets, no capital inflow will be induced by the rising differential between U.S. and foreign interest rates. Conversely, a sharp deceleration in U.S. money stock growth (not matched by equally restrictive for eign monetary developments) will produce an ap preciation of the dollar. In this case, initially U.S. interest rates will rise relative to foreign rates and U.S. spending growth will slow. As a result, the supply of dollars on foreign exchange markets will fall (as U.S. residents reduce spending for foreign goods, services, and securities) relative to the demand for dollars (as foreign investors increase purchases of U.S. securities in response to the higher U.S. inter est rate). However, if the slower U.S. money stock growth is sustained and the expected rate of U.S. inflation is revised downward, U.S. interest rates will decline relative to foreign rates. Further, if the re strictive U.S. monetary actions also produce large upward revisions in the expected future value of the dollar, no capital outflow will result from the declin ing U.S.-foreign interest rate differential. In this case, an appreciation of the dollar on foreign exchange markets will initially be associated with a rising U.S.-foreign interest rate differential. Eventually, how ever, the interest rate differential will decline while the dollar continues to appreciate. Page 13 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S Publications of This Bank Include: Weekly U. S. FINANCIAL DATA Monthly REVIEW MONETARY TRENDS NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS Quarterly CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Annually ANNUAL U. S. ECONOMIC DATA Single copies of these publications are available to the public without charge. For information write: Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P. O. Box 442, St. Louis, Missouri 63166. Page 14 JUNE 1979
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