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Monthly Review A Volume X X X I N K Number 6 JUNE, 1949 Survey of Current Conditions The nation’s economy continues to drift toward lower levels, but there is little evidence that the downward movement has gained momentum. At the present time observers of the economic scene tend to agree that further adjustments are to be expected but that the over-all decline in activity this year will be moderate rather than precipitous. This view of the near term future is based largely on the belief that reductions in expenditures by con sumers and businesses will not be wholly offset by increased public outlays for goods and services. In the first three months this year, consumers’ expenditures were estimated at about $4.4 billion less than in the fourth quarter of 1948, on a sea sonally adjusted annual basis, according to the Department of Commerce. The decline in expendi tures was considerably larger than the $1 billion re duction in aggregate income (after taxes) received by individuals, and resulted in a sharp increase in consumers’ savings. Business expenditures for equipment were at an annual rate of about $1 billion less than in the fourth quarter of last year, while net investment in inventories declined about $3 billion on an annual basis. Private investment in new construction was off $2 billion, reflecting declines in residential build ing and other principal categories of privately fi nanced construction. Part of the decrease in do mestic investment expenditures was offset by an increase in private investment abroad. In the ag gregate, however, business expenditures here and abroad were at an adjusted annual rate $3 billion below that in the closing months last year. These cutbacks in private expenditures were not offset, as some observers had expected, by a larger demand for goods and services by federal, state and local governments. In fact, government ex penditures also declined, on an adjusted annual basis, to a total about $1.4 billion less than in the preceding quarter. It should be noted, however, that public expenditures were relatively more important in total spending than in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, total government outlays for goods and services were larger than gross private investment expenditures here and abroad for the first time since the first half of 1946. In general, the outlook for the remainder of the year is for some further reductions in spending by consumers and business and for a slightly higher level of expenditures by government. The antici pated declines in consumers’ spending are expected to reflect some decrease in employment and income, together with further downward adjustments in PRICES W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N IT E D S T A T E S A pr. , '49 Bureau o f L abor com pared with Statistics A pr., 48 A p r., *49 M ar., *49 A pr., *48 Mar., *49 (1 9 2 6 = 1 0 0 ) — 3.6% 162.7 — 0.9 % A ll Commodities .... 156.9 158.4 — 8.8 186.7 — 0.6 171.3 Farm Products .... 170.3 — 7.9 176.8 -0 162.9 F oods .................... . 162.9 4 - 0.2 Other .................... . 148.8 150.8 148.5 — 1.3 R E T A IL F O O D P R IC E S A pr. 15, *49, Bureau o f L abor com pared with A pr. 15, M ar. 15, A p r. 15, Statistics 1949 1948 Mar. 1 5 ,'4 9 A pr. 15, 48 1949 (1935-39 = 100) — 2.5% 201.6 207.9 -f- 0 .6 % U . S. (51 c itie s).... . 202.8 -0 — 2.9 St. L ouis ............. . 207.5 213.6 207.6 — 2.5 198.0 4 - 1.6 Little R o ck ......... . 201.2 206.4 — 5.3 187.7 198.2 — 0.1 L ouisville ........... .. 187.6 — 3.3 211.9 222.2 M emphis ............. . 214.9 + 1.4 average prices of the goods consumers buy. Business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to total less than in 1948, with a large part of the decrease occurring in the last half of the year. Industry has virtually completed its postwar plant expansion programs. Investment in equipment is not likely to decline as rapidly as expenditures for new plant facilities but present indications point toward a smaller volume of such outlays than in 1948. The net investment in business inventories also is ex pected to be of less significance during the remainder of the year. While the trend in economic activity in the com ing months is toward a generally lower level than in 1948, the elements of support are still strong and the basic need for goods and services is extensive. Even adjustments of the magnitude generally fore cast by observers would leave activity at an ex tremely high level relative to any previous year except 1948. EMPLOYMENT Employment in the nation increased slightly between March and April, but the increase was not so large as normally expected for this season of the year. The entire gain occurred in agriculture, with nonagricultural industries showing a small decline. Preliminary and incomplete figures indicate that CONSTRUCTION BUILDING PERMITS Month of April New Construction Repairs, etc. (Cost in Number Cost Number Cost thousands) 1949 1948 1949 1948 1949 1948 1949 1948 Evansville ..... 50 $ 357 $1,091 ' '121 201 $ 83 $ 99 Little Rock.......... 83 100 602 810 152 232 240 347 .... 130 188 850 1,375 68 107 75 108 Memphis ....... . ... 1,624 1,156 2,694 3,380 197 1 1 224 2 179 St. Louis.........,.... 288 302 2,058 1,755 281 366 423 512 Apr. Totals..,....2,177 L79? $^56l $8,411 838 1,246 $1,012 $1,040 Mar. Totals..,....1,475 1,793 $6,265 $9,567 841 836 $1,276 $ 819 CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY No. of A p r., _ Ai Mar., Apr., 1949 (K.W .H. Custom-1949 1949 compared with in thousands) ers* K.W.H. K.W.H. K.W.H. Mar., *49 Apr., *48 Evansville........ 40 8,227 8,431 8,424 R — 2.4% — 2.3% Little Rock....... 35 4,863 4,479 4,156 + 8.6 +17.0 Louisville ........... 80 68,942 70,408 67,940 R — 2.1 + l.S Memphis 31 6,167 5,773 6,527 — 5.5 + 6.8 Pine Bluff........... 26 4,706 6,111 4,983 —23.0 — 5.6 St. Louis. 139 79,971 85,261 74,251 R — 6.2 + 7.7 Totals ............. 351 172,876 181,217 165,527 R — 4.6% + 4.4% _ •Selected industrial customers. R—Revised. LOADS INTERCHANGED FOR 25 RAILROADS AT ST. LOUIS First Nine Days Apr., *49 Mar., *49 Apr., *48 May, *49 May, *48 4 mos. *49 4 mos. *48 103,103 108,966 121,571 29,780 36,994 422,398 484,391 Source: Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis. CRUDE O IL PRODUCTION—D AILY AVERAGE Apr., 1949 April, March, April, compared with 1949 1949 1948 Mar., 1949 Apr., 1948 81.2 81.6 -0 -% 175.9 173.9 4* 2 23.3 22.9 +23 + — 4 23.4 22.9 + 2 303.8 301.3 - 0 -9 + 1% (In thousands ofbbls.) Arkansas ........ Illinois ........... Indiana ......... Kentucky ..... T o ta l........... Page 86 | employment in the Eighth District followed the national pattern between March and April. Agri cultural employment increased, while a decline in manufacturing employment more than offset small seasonal gains in construction, trade and service. In wholesale and retail trade and in public utilities employment remained about the same. Nonagricultural employment in the St. Louis area dropped slightly between March and April as the result of a decrease of about one per cent in manufacturing employment which was not com pletely offset by increases in the service and con struction industries. Nonagricultural employment in St. Louis in April fell below the year ago level for the first time since May, 1946. Manufacturing em ployment, which dropped below the year ago level in February, continued to be lower this April than last. A slow but steady decline has been apparent in manufacturing employment since last October. Generally, the construction industry is expected to show the largest gain during the next few months, although seasonal increases also are expected in the transportation, and trade and service industries. Manufacturing employment will probably fluctuate in the immediate future, and the extent of these fluctuations will determine the near term trend in total nonagricultural employment. Although unemployment has been increasing in the district as the result of employment declines and the growth of the labor force, the number of unemployed persons is still considerably below pre war levels. Approximately 78,000 persons were looking for work in the five major district labor market areas in March, 1949 as compared with about 170,000 in 1940. This is a decrease of about 54 per cent as compared with a national decrease of 62 per cent. INDUSTRY Over-all industrial activity in the district during April declined somewhat from the March level. In some lines, however, activity was at a slightly higher level. Production of such basic raw ma terials as lumber and steel decreased, as did manu facturing output in nearly all lines. Production of crude oil and coal was higher, although the increase in coal was exaggerated by the fact that the mine holiday curtailed March production. Construction activity was fractionally higher than in March, but expected seasonal increases were not apparent. Electric power consumption in the district’s major industrial centers during April decreased 5 per cent, but on a daily average basis was somewhat higher than during March. Power consumption increased 4 per cent by comparison with April, 1948. Manufacturing.—Aggregate production of the dis trict’s manufacturing industries was somewhat lower in April than in March. However, divergent trends were apparent in some parts of the district and in different lines. Decreases in total output were in dicated in brewing; chemicals; electrical products; machinery; metals and metal products; stone, clay and glass products; transportation equipment and meat packing operations. Increases were shown in manufacture of automobiles, iron and steel products and rubber products, whereas manufacture of food products remained about the same as in March. Steel.— During April, the basic steel industry in the St. Louis area operated at 70 per cent of capacity. This was 4 per cent lower than the scheduled ca pacity in March and 12 per cent below the rate of a year ago. The lowered April schedule was in part due to shutdowns for maintenance but also reflected some easing in demand. Lumber.— Production of lumber in April was somewhat lower than a month ago and remained under year ago levels. W eekly production of southern hardwood opera tors in April averaged only 59 per cent of capacity, the lowest monthly average since 1946. This was 24 per cent lower than in March and 32 per cent below that a year ago. Operations of reporting southern pine producers were up 2 per cent from the March level but down 12 per cent from April, 1948. Whiskey.— Operations of Kentucky’s distilleries continued at about the same rate as in previous months. Thirty-seven of the state’s 63 distilleries were in operation at the end of the month as com pared with 39 a month earlier and 48 at the end of April last year. In the first quarter of 1949, 23.6 million tax gallons of whiskey were produced in Kentucky, a 3 million gallon gain over 1948. Meat Packing.— Meat packing operations in the St. Louis area in April declined from March, both on an aggregate and a daily average basis and con tinued below the level of the comparable month of a year ago. In April 365,000 animals were slaughtered under Federal inspection, a decrease of 12 per cent by comparison with March, and of nearly 36 per cent by comparison with April, 1948. Shoes.— District shoe production in March, according to preliminary reports, increased 16 per cent over February. March output was estimated at 8.6 million pairs, compared with 7.4 million pairs produced in February and 9.5 million pairs produced in March, 1948. Output in the first quarter totaled nearly 24 million pairs, about 2j^ million short of the first quarter output last year when production was the largest on record. Oil and Coal.— The daily average output of crude oil in the district states in April increased slightly over March and approximately equaled the output of a year ago. In April, output averaged 304,000 barrels daily, compared with a 301,000 barrel aver age in March. The gain was due to slight increases in Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois. Recovering from the decline in March which reflected the mine holiday, April output in the district’s coal mines totaled 8.5 million tons. This was a 22 per cent increase over March and 8 per cent over a year ago. Compared with last year April output increased 12 per cent in Illinois and 65 per cent in Indiana, offsetting considerable decreases in the other producing areas. Construction.— The dollar value of permits awarded for new construction and repairs in the district’s major cities in April was fractionally higher than in March but 20 per cent below that of a year ago. Authorizations totaled $7.6 million. Permits issued for new construction totaled $6.6 million, of which $3.4 million was for residential dwellings. The value of new construction was 5 per cent higher than in March because of a sizable month-to-month increase in new nonresidential per mits, which offset a 16 per cent decline in residen tial awards. Compared with 1948 the value of both residential and nonresidential permits was down. TRADE Consumers’ expenditures in the nation in the first quarter of 1949 declined from the previous quarter for the first time since the end of the war. Purchases of goods and services in the first quarter are estimated at $176.6 billion on a seasonally ad justed annual basis according to the U. S. Depart ment of Commerce. In the last quarter of 1948 con sumers’ outlays were at an annual rate of $181.0 billion. Although between two and three per cent below late last year, expenditures were at a higher level than in the first quarter of 1948. WHOLESALING N et Sales Line of Comm odities A pril, 1949 Data furnished by com pared with Bureau o f Census A p r., 1948 U .S . Dept, o f Comm erce* M ar., 1949 — 4% D rugs and Chem icals........ — 12% — 12 — 13 — 9 — 7 — 26 Hardware ............................ — 13 — 6 T o b a cco and its P roducts — 2 — 15 — 19 M iscellaneous ................... — 15% * *T otal A ll L ines.......... — 12% •Preliminary. **Includes certain items not listed above. Stocks A pr. 30, 1949 com pared with A p r. 30, 1948 — 1% — 4 +1 ! + I 4- 6 4* 8 % Page 87 TRADE D E PA RTM EN T STORES Stocks S tock N et Sales__________ on H and T urnover A p r.,’ 49 4 m o s/4 9 A p r. 30,’ 49 Jan. 1 com pared with to same com p, with to A p r. 30, M a r.,’49 A p r.,’48 period *48 A p r. 3 0 /4 8 1949 1948 8th F .R . D istrict........ + 1 1 % + 1% — 3% — 5% 1.24 1.23 F t. Smith, A rk ........... + 1 4 +11 + 1 — IS 1.29 1.24 L ittle R ock, A rk ......... + 2 1 + 1 - 0 — 2 1.30 1.34 Q uincy, 111.................... + 12 4 -2 — 8 — 8 1.02 1.18 Evansville, In d ............ + 16 — i —n — 21 1.08 1.17 Louisville, K y .............. + 2 5 + 9 -0 — 3 1.35 1.39 St. Louis A r e a 1.......... + 6 — 2 — 5 — 5 1.23 1.23 St. Louis, M o ......... + 5 — 1 — 5 — 5 1.23 1.24 E* St. Louis, 111..... + 2 3 — 3 — 8 ........ .................... Springfield, M o ............ + 2 1 — 13 — 18 — 16 .98 1.09 + 4 + 2 — 1 1.31 1.19 Memphis, T enn............ + 9 *A11 other cities.......... + 2 1 + 2 — 1 — 9 .96 .97 *E1 D orado, Fayetteville, Pine B luff, A r k .; H arrisburg, M t. V ernon, 111.; N ew A lbany, Vincennes, I n d .; Danville, H opkinsville, M ayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o .; Greenville, M is s .; and Jackson, Tenn. 1 Includes St. L ouis, M o .; A lton , Belleville, and E ast St. L ou is, 111. Outstanding orders o f reporting stores' at the end o f A pril, 1949, were 39 per cent less than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding A p ril 1, 1949, collected during A pril, b y citie s : Q uincy .......... St. L ouis........ Other Cities.... 8th F .R . D ist. E x cl. Instal. Instal. A ccou n ts A c counts 2 4% 62% 27 56 21 52 26 52 E xcl. Instal. Instal. A ccoun ts A ccou n ts F ort S m it h ................... % 5 0% Little R ock.... 22 50 25 49 Louisville ...... M emphis ........ 28 45 IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S A N D ST O C K S 8th Federal Reserve D istrict A p r., 1949 327 321 321 321 M ar., 1949 287 309 314 323 F eb., 1949 261 310 282 313 A p r., 1948 326 343 331 331 * D aily A verage 1 93 5 -3 9 = 1 0 0 . 8 End o f M onth A verage 1 9 3 5 -3 9 = 1 0 0 . S P E C IA L T Y STO R ES Stocks Stock N et Sales___________ on H and T urnover A p r /4 9 4 m o s/4 9 A p r. 3 0 /4 9 Jan. 1, com pared with to same com p, with to A pr. 30 M a r/4 9 A p r /4 8 period ’48 A p r. 3 0 /4 8 1949 1948 M en’s Furnishings + 3 1 % +18% ' +3% — 3% .89 .93 B oots and Shoes.. + 5 0 +48 +4 —n 1.42 1.36 Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding A p ril 1, 1949, collected during A p ril: M en’ s Furnishings ................... 4 2 % B oots and Shoes.......................... 4 5% Trading d a ys: A p ril, 1949— 2 6 ; M arch, 1949— 2 7 ; A pril, 1948— 26. RETAIL FURNITURE STORES** N et Sales Inventories A p ril, 1949 A pril, 1949 com pared with com pared with M a r./4 9 A p r ./4 8 M a r./4 9 A p r ./4 8 8th Dist. T otal 1 ... + 1 2 % — 11% — 3 % — 2 % St. Louis A r e a 2.... + 4 — 12 — 7 — 3 St. L ou is............ + 2 — 13 — 7 — 3 Louisville A rea*.... +30 — 25 — 5 +14 Louisville .......... + 2 8 — 25 — 5 +14 M emphis ................. + 1 9 — 1 +9 —20 Little R o ck .......... + 2 4 + 1 + 6 + 2 F o rt Smith............... + 1 9 +22 * * R atio o f Collections A p r ./4 9 A p r ./4 8 2 6% 3 0% 33 41 33 42 19 20 18 18 17 22 22 25 * * *N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in E ighth D istrict totals. 1 In addition to follow in g cities, includes stores in Blytheville, F ort Smith and Pine B lu ff, A rka n sas; H opkinsville, O w ensboro, K en tu ck y ; Greenville, Greenw ood, M ississippi; Hannibal and Springfield, M issou ri; and Evansville, Indiana. * Includes St. L ouis, M issou ri; and A lton , Illinois. * Includes Louisville, K e n tu ck y ; and N ew A lbany, Indiana. ** 43 stores reporting. PERCENTAGE D ISTRIBU TIO N OF FURNITURE SALES Cash Sales ......................................................... Credit Sales ......................................................... T otal Sales ....................................................... Page 88 A p r ./4 9 13% 87 100% M a r./4 9 13% 87 100% A p r ./4 8 14% 86 100% Apparently the increase from the first three months of 1948 reflects increased expenditures for services. The dollar volume of retail sales was 4 per cent smaller than in the first quarter of 1948 (daily average sales, seasonally adjusted, were frac tionally larger than last year). The decline in dollar volume of sales was general, affecting almost all lines of goods. Of the twentytwo major groups of retail outlets covered in the Department of Commerce reports, only the automo tive group showed an increase from the first quarter of 1948. Within these twenty-two major groups, increases were reported by only six lines of trade: dairy products stores, milk dealers, radio and musi cal instrument stores, paint glass and wallpaper stores, automobile dealers and book stores. In creases in these stores ranged from 10 per cent in the radio and musical instrument outlets to 4 per cent in the dairy products stores. On the other hand, de clines of as much as 17 per cent (lumber-building materials) were reported by other types of stores, with a few lines showing no change from last year. In the St. Louis area, dollar volume of retail sales declined 3 per cent as compared with the 4 per cent national decrease. Automotive dealers, whose sales were up 6 per cent, and drug stores, reporting an increase of 7 per cent, recorded the only gains over last year. Department Store Sales.—At reporting district department stores preliminary figures for the period January 1 through April 30, 1949 indicate that dollar sales volume in the four-month period was 3 per cent less than in the comparable period of 1948. In only two of four months have dollar sales at these stores totaled larger than last year: February, when sales volume was greater by 1 per cent; and April, when it was up 1 per cent over the same month last year. For the four-month period sales volume in report ing stores in Memphis gained 2 per cent and in Fort Smith were 1 per cent larger than last year. In Little Rock and Louisville dollar sales showed little change from year ago levels but declined 5 per cent in St. Louis, 11 per cent in Evansville and 18 per cent in Springfield. By April, however, comparisons with a year ago were more favorable than indicated by the first four-month estimates. Dollar sales registered in creases in April amounting to 11 per cent in Fort Smith, 9 per cent in Louisville and 4 per cent in Memphis. In Little Rock sales were unchanged from those last year and in Evansville and St. Louis declined 1 per cent from year ago levels. In Spring field dollar sales dropped 13 per cent below last year. For the district as a whole, seasonally adjusted daily average sales have been under year ago figures in every month so far this year with the exception of February. Despite a much longer Easter shopping period, unseasonable and unfavorable weather plus an apparent reluctance by consumers to purchase seasonal merchandise in the pre-Easter period, re sulted in a drop in the adjusted index from 343 per cent of the 1935-39 average in April, 1948 to 321 per cent in April, 1949. In St. Louis, Memphis and Little Rock seasonally adjusted sales registered much the same as those for the district as a whole. In Louisville, however, seasonally adjusted sales were 391 per cent of the five year base as compared to 368 per cent for April, 1948. In those St. Louis department stores reporting data of sales by departments, total store sales in April were slightly less than last year. Main store departments averaged 5 per cent less than in April 1948, while the basement divisions totaled 14 per cent more than a year earlier. In the upstairs store only women’s and misses’ ready-to-wear accessories and miscellaneous merchandise departments gained over last year. In the former sales were up 14 per cent while in the latter a gain of 5 per cent was re ported, due to a 68 per cent increase in candy sales. W om en’s and misses’ ready-to-wear apparel sales averaged fractionally more than in April, 1948, and men’s and boys’ wear were down 1 per cent. The housefurnishings divisions dropped 23 per cent and small wares and piece goods and household textiles were both 5 per cent under April, 1948. Almost with out exception sales in the comparable basement store divisions gained more or dropped less, per centagewise, than in the main store. Downstairs women’s and misses’ ready-to-wear apparel and accessories gained 24 per cent, men’s and boys’ wear increased 26 per cent and housefurnishings declined 10 per cent from total of dollar sales in April, 1948. On a seasonally adjusted basis the value of in ventories held by reporting district department stores has been maintained at slightly more than three times the 1935-39 base period since Decem ber, 1947, with the exception of July and August, 1948. In the first four months of 1949 seasonally adjusted end-of-month stocks averaged less than for the same dates in 1948 but were somewhat higher in dollar value than during the first four months of 1947. On April 30 the index was at 321 per cent of 1935-39. A year ago it was 331 per cent. BANKING P R IN C IP A L A SSE T S A N D L IA B IL IT IE S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U IS Change from M ay 18, *Apr. 20, M ay 19, ( I n thousands o f dollars) 1949 1949 1948 Industrial advances under Sec. 13b............ $ ............... $ ............... $ ................. Other advances and rediscounts................... 12,959 + 1,684 + 967 U .S . Securities .................................................. 1,064,970 — 85,479 — 44,714 T otal earning assets.....................................$1,077,929 $— 83,795 $— 43,747 T otal reserves .................................................... $ 763,728 $ + 2 7 ,1 1 7 $+1 1 2 ,5 62 Total deposits .................................................... 749,838 — 43,358 4 - 59,470 F .R . notes in circulation................................ 1,083,923 — 6,862 + 5,039 Industrial commitments under Sec. 13b....$ .............. $ ............... $— 580 P R IN C IP A L A SSET S A N D L IA B IL IT IE S W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S E IG H T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T (I n thousands o f dollars) 34 banks reporting. Change from M ay 18, A pr. 20, M ay 19, ASSETS 1949 1949 1948 Gross, commercial, industrial, and agricul tural loans and open market paper..........$ 517,431 $— 29,859 * Gross loans to brokers and dealers in securities ........................................................... 5,885 + 421 * Gross loans to others to purchase and carry securities ........ ......................................♦ 20,791 — 770 * Gross real estate loans....................................... 163,384 + 2,488 * Gross loans to banks........................................... 4,605 + 3,355 * Gross other loans (largely consum er credit loans) ................................................................. 206,949 — 3,014 * T otal ................................................................... 919,045 — 27,379 * Less reserve for losses.............................. 9,770 + 14 * Net total loans.................................................. $ 909,275 $— 27,393 + 8,167 Treasury bills ...................................................... 36,667 + 8,552 — 11,191 Certificates of indebtedness.............................. 172,727 + 699 + 47 ,98 1 Treasury notes .................................................... 49,862 + 4,004 — 36,198 737,867 + 2 1 ,3 3 6 + 968 U .S. bonds and guaranteed obligations........ Other secu rities.................................................. 136,967 + 2,181 — 9,545 T otal investments ........................................... $1,134,088 $ + 3 6 ,7 7 2 $— 7,985 Cash assets ...........................................................755,553 — 16,614 + 3 3 ,3 5 1 Other assets ........................................................ 24,974 + 1,202 — 740 T otal assets ..................................................... .$2,823,890 $— 6,033 $ +3 2 ,7 9 3 L IA B IL IT IE S Demand deposits o f individuals, partner ships, and corporations...................................$1,438,030 $ + 8,557 $ + 1 5 ,2 0 5 Interbank deposits ........................................... 539,348 — 3,514 + 1 3 ,9 9 7 U .S . Government deposits................................ 33,255 — 18,391 — 18,067 Other deposits ..................................................... 124,790 + 249 + 3,372 T otal demand deposits.................................. $2,135,423 $— 13,099 $ + 1 4 ,5 0 7 484,715 + 2,806 4 - 9,654 Tim e deposits ...................................................... Borrowings ........................................................... 9,620 + 3,145 + 5,020 Other liabilities .................................................... 17,537 4 - 1,249 4 212 Total capital accounts......................................... 176,595 — 134 + 3,400 Total liabilities and capital accounts........$2,823,890 $— 6,033 $ + 3 2 ,7 9 3 Demand deposits, adjusted * * ..........................$1,353,004 $ + 729 $ + 2 3 ,9 3 0 * Comparative data not available due to change in m ethod o f reporting. * * Other than interbank and governm ent demand deposits, less cash items on hand or in process o f collection. DEBITS TO DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS A pr. , 1949 (I n thousands A p r., M ar., A p r., com pared with o f dollars) 1949 1949 1948 M a r.,*49 A p r.,’ 48 E l Dorado, A rk ........ . $ 20,670 $ 23,398 $ 21,701 — 12% — 5% F ort Smith, A rk ......... 39,890 39,320 37,135 4- 7 4- 1 Helena, A rk .................. 7,034 7,982 6,952 — 12 + 1 Little R ock, A rk ....... 118,345 132,089 120,298 — 2 — 10 Pine B luff, A rk ........... 26,397 22,388 28,643 — 8 +18 Texarkana, A rk .*...... 9,806 11,142 — 4 10,244 — 12 A lton, 111...................... — 3 23,083 23,848 — 6 24,445 E .S tL .-N a t .S .Y ., 111. 101,672 114,259 106,651 — 5 — 11 Quincy, 111.................... 28,710 29,784 28,882 — 4 — 1 109,488 Evansville, In d ........... 108,467 106,350 + 3 + 1 Louisville, K y ............ 458,718 507,028 462,781 — 10 — 1 Owensboro, K y ........... 26,978 31,012 — 13 26,400 + 2 Paducah, K y ................ 13,414 14,724 14,354 — 9 — 7 18,457 Greenville, M iss.......... 22,692 17,631 — 19 + 5 10,486 Cape Girardeau, M o. 10,981 11,243 — 7 — 5 7,560 Hannibal, M o .............. 7,874 7,345 — 4 + 3 Jefferson City, M o ..... 58,178 36,562 41,986 +59 +39 St. Louis, M o ............. 1,413,310 1,549,525 1,441,441 — 9 — 2 9,883 Sedalia, M o .................. 9,614 9,818 + 3 + 1 52,519 Springfield, M o ........... 53,983 54,851 — 3 — 4 16,799 Jackson, T enn............. 17,172 18,310 — 8 — 2 466,450 Memphis, Tenn........... 529,653 472,361 — 12 — 1 Totals ....................... $3,037,847 $3,311,487 $3,061,832 — 8% — 1% * These figures are: for Texarkana, Arkansas only. T otal debits for banks in Texarakana , Texas-Arkansas, including banks in the Eleventh District, amounted to $23,745. Page 89 The dollar value of inventories held by district department stores at the close of April was 3 per cent less than on March 31 and 5 per cent under the comparable date in 1948. At those St. Louis depart ment stores where data of inventories by major di visions are available, stocks in the main store were larger than a year earlier only in two departments — housefurnishings (plus 5 per cent) and men’s and boys’ wear (plus 2 per cent). In the basement di vision, housefurnishings were up 19 per cent from a year ago. fact that the Treasury’s cash surplus developed in the first quarter of 1949 amounted to $2.2 billion in comparison with $5.5 billion in the first quarter of 1948. BANKING AND FINANCE Investments.— The larger member banks in the district added $35 million to their investments in Governments in the four weeks ending May 18, 1949. From the low point reached at the end of March, the expansion in Governments totaled $73 million, $11 million more than in the comparable period in 1948. The small country banks, with a seasonal demand for business and agricultural credit in the spring, reduced their holdings of Governments in April. The reduction in total investments during the first four months of the year at the small country banks, however, has been $17 million as compared with $48 million in the same period last year. Decreased Reserve Requirements.— Effective May 1, 1949 at non-reserve city member banks and May 5, 1949 at central reserve city and reserve city mem ber banks, the Board of Governors reduced the reserves required against demand and time deposits. The reduction amounted to 2 points against demand deposits at central reserve city member banks (New York and Chicago), 1 point against demand deposits for all other member banks, and y2 of 1 percentage point (from 7 ^ to 7 per cent) against time deposits at all member banks. The reduction was estimated to amount to $1,200 million nationally. In the Eighth District, approximately $36 million was released: a total of $18 million to the reserve city banks and about the same amount to the non-reserve city banks. Loan Volume.— Total loans declined further in May to approximately the level of May 11, 1948. Compared with a year ago, real estate loans and “ all other” (largely consumer credit) loans increased while business and agricultural loans and loans on securities declined. The decrease in total loans for the first four months of the year has been greater in 1949 than in 1948— 5 per cent compared with 2 per cent. The decline at reserve city banks has been greater this year, but the seasonal expansion at rural banks has been less this year than last. It should be noted, however, that the behavior of loan volumes represents, in part, a return to normal sea sonal movements. Deposit Volumes.— Data for all member banks for the end of April show that demand deposits declined only slightly during the month (J^ per cent) in contrast with the 3 per cent shrinkage in March which resulted principally from the heavy tax collec tions. The $15 million decline in April left these demand deposits somewhat more than 1 per cent above April, 1948. Considering the four months together, the loss in demand deposits during 1949 was less than in 1948, principally reflecting the Page 90 Time deposits gained $7 million in April at all member banks, about half at small rural banks and half at all other banks, continuing the growth which began about the first of the year. The four months’ gain of $21 million was greater than that in the corresponding period of 1948 or 1947. AGRICULTURE Crop growing conditions through the first week of May seemed to justify continued favorable re ports for abundant production in 1949. The May 1 indicated wheat production was 1,021 million bushels, 2 million bushels more than a month earlier. The first estimate of spring wheat production will not be made until June 10, but even an average yield will bring total production to 1,312 million bushels. Winter wheat acreage is 1.5 per cent larger than the 1947 record acreage, and the indi cated yield of 18.4 bushels per acre is only 0.3 bushels less than in 1948. AGRICULTURE (I n thousands Mar. o f dollars) 1949 Arkansas ....$ 34,411 Illinois ........ 138,087 Indiana ...... 71,514 K entucky .... 22,727 Mississippi.... 39,320 M issouri .... 63,168 Tennessee .... 25,960 T otals ......$395,187 CASH F A R M IN C O M E M ar., 1949 3 m onth total Jan. to M ar. com pared with 1949 com pared with Feb. Mar. 1948 1947 1949 1949 1948 +24% +40% — 5% +36% $ 122,255 — 2 413,812 +14 +14 — 1 202,967 +16 + 1 — 21 150,273 — 21 — 1 +62 158,604 — 21 +13 t n 207,706 — 1 — 3 + 5 — 14 101,960 — 7 — 11 — 15 + 1% + 8% $1,357,577 - 0 -% + 8% ±5 R E C E I P T S A N D S H IP M E N T S A T N A T I O N A L S T O C K Y A R D S Receipts Shipments A p r., 1949 A p r., 1949 com pared with A pr., A p r., com pared with M ar.,’ 49 A p r.,’ 48 1949 1949 M ar.,’ 49 A p r.,’ 48 29,305 — 17% — 36% Cattle and calves.... 86,215 — 10% — 2 3% — 11 85,100 + 37 — 37 11,685 + 2 8 9 Sheep ....................... 24,445 + 2 — 55 — 51 840 — 58 H orses ................... 840 — 58 — 51 126,930 + 24% — 2 2% T otals .................366,307 — 2 % — 15% Field work throughout most of the Eighth Dis trict, as compared with other years, was advanced by mid-May as a result of good weather during the latter part of April and early part of May. Many fields of cotton were up to good stands by the end of the first week in May, and chopping was well underway in some sections. Field work progressed rapidly in the northern part of the Eighth District, with some corn already up by mid-May. For the first time in ten years farm real estate values turned downward nationally during the fourmonth period ending March, 1949. The index in March, 1949 was 1 per cent less than in November but 3 per cent more than a year earlier. Among the district states, however, values showed a decrease in only one state— Indiana— during the four-month pe riod, and values in five states increased. During the year ending March, 1949 all district states, ex cept Indiana, registered gains in land values exceed ing the national average. P E R C E N T A G E C H A N G E IN A V E R A G E V A L U E PER ACRE 0 3 FARM R EAL ESTATE Change in Farm Value F rom N ov. *48 F rom M arch ’48 F rom 1935-39 to M arch *49 to M arch '49 to M arch *48 Arkansas ................................ - 0 -% -4-11 % * 4 -1 7 9 % Illinois .................................. + 2 4 -5 4-131 Indiana .................................. — 1 4-2 +157 Kentucky .............................. + 3 + 8 +192 Mississippi ........................... 4- 4 4- 5 4-155 Missouri ................................ 4 -4 4 -6 4-109 Tennessee .............................. 4- 4 4- 5 4-174 United S ta te s ....................... — 1% 4- 3 % + 111% S ou rce: U . S. Departm ent o f A griculture, Bureau o f Agricultural E conom ics. About 17 per cent fewer farms were sold during the year ending March 1, 1949 than in a like period a year earlier. The amount of new farm mortgage credit was only 1 per cent less than a year earlier despite the 17 per cent decrease in the number of sales. Total outstanding farm mortgage credit was about 9 per cent larger than the low point in 1946. Cash farm receipts for the first four months of 1949 were estimated to be 4 per cent lower than in 1948. Receipts from livestock were 7 per cent lower and receipts from crops were slightly higher than a year earlier..
@FedFRASER