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M m itM yMew July 1958 ^ Volume X X X X Number 7 d n J P%jpe7* I n J m t r y m tTte M ts s & ip p i, T e n n e ^ e e P U LP A N D P A P ER IN D U S T R Y grew rapidly in the mid-South . states o f Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee during the decade 1947 to 1957. ^ ^ # ^ Pu!p mil! capacity increased almost threefold. The number of people em- ; - ployed by the industry in the forests and in the mills rose from 22,000 to 38,000 . Substantial expansion of the industry in these three states appears likely because of the growing demand for paper and paperboard products, avail ability of timber supplies, and the use and development of new processes. F e d e r a ! B a m k St. L ottis Survey o f Current C onditions— p. 9 0 T7ie ^nd Paper Ind^styy in Ae Mi&So^th,— Ay^dnsds^ Mississippi, Tennessee DuRING T H E FA ST Q U A R T E R C E N T U R Y the pulpwood, pulp, and paper industry in the m id-South has brought broad econom ic improvements to the area's population.* It has been a m ajor factor in the vigorous developm ent and greater diversification of industry and com m erce in mid-South communities. The feature article, Currant and Prospec^u^ Ptt%pPro& tcfion in EigTifA D istrict Sfafes, in the Sep tem ber 1957 AfonfMy discussed trends in pulpwood production, pointing out its im portance as a source of incom e, especially in the southern district states. Increased sales of pulpwood have been re flected in more jobs in tim ber harvesting and m anage ment occupations. G reater returns have accrued to tim ber owners and higher values have been placed on "worn out" farm land with the realization of new productive potential. O nce southern pine was found suitable for conver sion into paper, the rapid growth of the industry in the South began. M ill owners, faced w ith declining supplies of spruce and Er in other parts of the nation, realized that new sources of raw m aterials m ust b e obtained if the industry was to expand. T h e supply of tim ber appeared adequate in fast-grow ing southern forests. Mild clim ate minimized m ill construction costs and perm itted alm ost year-round woods opera tions. F u el and w ater supplies were readily available, and the supply of labor, although untrained, was abundant, with relatively low wage rates prevailing. The three mid-South states of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi, on w hich this article focuses, are favorably located for providing a share of the future growth of the industry in the South. Eventually the im pact of the developm ent should spread to the forested areas of other Eighth D istrict states. T h e future of the mid-South's pulp and paper industrial developm ent w ill probably be determ ined not only by the m arket for pulp and paper products, b u t also by the extent to which a sustained yield of desirable tim ber can be provided by the area. D espite its maturity in age, the pulp and paper in dustry continues to rank far above the national aver age in growth rate. Com pared with the gross national product rise of six times from 1900 to 1955, paper and board production increased fourteen times. W h ile pulp and paper output may not grow as rapidly in the future as in the past, a relatively high growth ra te w ill u n d o u b te d ly co n tin u e fo r a n u m b er o f decades. T h e United States D epartm ent of Com m erce, in a detailed analysis of the pulp, paper, and board indus try, e stim a te d that the n a tio n 's d em an d for paper and board in 1965 would be 48.6 million tons, an in crease of 34 per cen t over 1956 production.- In a 1954 report, the Stanford R esearch Institute projected a domestic paper and paperboard consumption in 1975 of 53.5 million tons, approximately 50 per cen t above consumption in 1956.'^ TABLE 1 PROJECTED DEMAND FOR VAR!OUS PAPER PAPERBOARD PRODUCTS !N 1 9 6 5 Commodity Percentage increase 1956 to 1965 Tota! paper and board. . 48.6 + 34 Tota! p ap er.................... 23 6 + 24 Newsprint ................. Printing p a p e r s .... Fine papers............... Coarse and specia! industria! papers. Sanitary and tissue p a p e r s .................... 8.3 5.0 2.0 + + + 21 18 25 5.7 + 24 Tota! paperboard . . . . Containerboard . . . Bending board.......... Specia! food board. Nonbending and other paperboard Tota! buitding paper and board ................. Buitding p a p e r .. . . Buitding b o a r d .. .. Source: 2 P#//?, 3 Page 82 Protected demand in 1963 (mihtons of short tons) AND 2.6 + 46 20.5 + 45 10.2 3.7 3.1 + 34 + 31 + 148 3.5 + 41 4.5 2.2 2.3 + + 47 60 36 United States Department of Commerce, VP37. /or 1957. 7929-7973, 1934. The D epartm ent of Commerce estim ated that 34 million tons of woodpulp will be required in the United States for paper, board, and nonpaper uses in 1965, or 42 per cent more than actual 1956 consum p tion. In addition to the above projections, the Paley Commission and the Forest Service have made fo re casts of paper and board consumption and woodpulp production in 1975.* Both estimates are substantially above current output. Thus, from the standpoint of the nation's demand for pulp, paper, and board products, it appears that the industry will continue at a high rate of growth except for temporary periods of overcapacity and excessive inventories. T he three mid-South states apparently have the re sources to support a large share of national pulp and paper industry growth. W ithin the boundaries of the three states lie 46 million acres of tim ber, or alm ost 10 per cent of the com m ercial forest land of the nation. Furtherm ore, net annual timber growth of 1.5 billion cubic feet in the area in 1952 was almost 11 per cent of net annual growth in the continental United States. And the relationship betw een net annual growth and tim ber cut of desirable pulping species in the three states is more favorable than that of the national totals. In 1952 softwood growth (pine) in the three states was 26 per cent in excess of cut, whereas for the nation net softwood growth was only 93 per cent of cut. This is an especially im portant factor in pulpmill locations, since much of the softwood tim ber in the three states consists of young growing stock, from w hich the highest quality pulp can be produced. Also, because of high pulpmill investm ent costs and the expense of hauling bulky pulpwood over long distances, it is im portant for mills to locate near sus tainable supplies of desirable species. Hardwoods, plentiful in other sections of the nation as well as in the South, have been used increasingly for pulpmaking in recent years. However, the pro portion of hardwoods to total pulpwood consumption has been maintained at about 15 per cent during the past three decades. D espite recent technical de velopments in making pulp and paper from such species, it does not appear that paper of sufficient strength to m eet most industrial requirem ents can be made from the hardwood fibers, which are shorter than those of softwoods, without blending them in some proportion with softwood. Thus, while hard wood pulps are used successfully for stiff corrugating board, liner board, and similar purposes, for most pur poses a blending of the longer coniferous fibers is necessary to obtain the desirable strength and tear resistance. T h e increasing use of such blending is a distinct possibility as the shortage of conifers becom es more acute. 4 A substantial margin of softwood growth over cut is necessary if the nation is to maintain present soft wood Rber content in anticipated pulp and paper production in the next two decades. Despite im provements in tim ber management on the nation s forest lands and the increased use of mill residues, it does not seem likely that this level of sustainable production will be achieved very soon. Prospects are that the 1952 relationships betw een growth and cut of softwood will deteriorate further in both the nation and the mid-South before improving. Thus, the outlook for the pulp and paper industry will probably be characterized by a scarcity of more de sirable softwoods and greater use of hardwoods via various blending processes. This is a favorable factor for the three mid-South states where large supplies of low -quality hardwoods and pine for blending pur poses are both available for industrial use. The other district states of Missouri and Kentucky, as well as parts of Indiana and Illinois, whose tim ber supplies are predom inately hardwoods, may also benefit from these developments as thev increase their own soft wood supplies and draw from southern softwood regions. F/ri/ P/J/7 AM/ J9 7 3 T he era of pulp and paper m anufacturing began in the mid-South in 1913 when the Southern Paper Com pany, largely financed from England, built a mill at Moss Point, Mississippi, for processing southern pine pulpwood into kraft paper (a strong paper generally used for w rapping and packaging). Previously, the various species of southern pine had been considered too resinous for pulping (red u cing to fibers). Some difficulty was encountered by the Moss Point mill in the early stages, but the troubles were soon rectified. In 1928 the mill was sold to the International Paper Company.^ Attracted by the success of this mill and the huge potential supply of pine pulpwood, other paper mills began to spring up throughout the South, several of them in the mid-South states. By 1930, pulp and paper or paperboard mills had been built at Cam den, Arkansas, Harriman and Kingsport, Tennessee, and Laurel, Mississippi, in addition to the Moss Point mill. All were designed for making kraft paper w ith the exception of the Laurel mill w hich made paperboard. Th e depression brought pulp and paper mill devel opments in the m id-South to a standstill in the early thirties. But in the last h alf of the decade new mills followed, including the Crossett Paper M ill at Crossett, Arkansas, and the United States Gypsum C om pany's plant at Greenville, Mississippi. on V ol. V , 1952. U n it e d States D e p a r t m e n t of A gr ic ul tu r e , 1955. 5 January, 1934, p. 57. Page 83 Pine Putpwood Production by County in the Mid-South, 1 9 5 6 Hardwood Putpwood Production by County in the Mid-South, 1 9 5 6 I N A D D ITIO N to principal producing counties shown above, the following counties had from 1 to 3,000 tons of total pulpwood (both pine and hardwood) output: Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Monroe, and White Counties in Arkansas; Benton, Clay, and L ee Counties in Mississippi; and Bledsoe, Grundy, Hardeman, Marion, and W hite Counties in Tennessee. (Maps reproduced from United States Forest Service Release 80, 1937.) Page 84 In 1940 the possibility of making newsprint from southern pine was conclusively demonstrated. This developm ent opened up a vast new m arket for forest resources in the mid-South. Soon thereafter a mill was constructed for making dissolving pulp ( used for making fine paper and such nonpaper products as rayon, cellophane, plastics, photographic Rim, and explosives) from southern pine, further broadening the use of m id-South forests for producing practically all types of paper and paperboard. compares with a low of 81.3 per cent for the nation and 68 per cent for the Middle Atlantic States. A number of factors contributed to the higher oper ating ratios of southern mills. First, average pulp production per employee has been somewhat higher in Southern mills than the national average, probably reflecting improved technology in mill construction and pulping processes. Mills in the South are gener ally newer than those in other parts of the nation, so, on the average, they no doubt incorporate more of the recent technological improvements. They have con centrated on output of a smaller num ber of pulp and paper grades. Also, the average capacity per mill in the South is substantially greater than that of the nation. There was an annual capacity of 167,000 tons per mill for the South as compared with 83,000 tons for the nation, according to estimates from the latest Census data. Second, pulp and paper making mills in the South are mostly integrated operations (pulp and paper making are carried out at the same loca tio n ), located near the forests from which pulpwood supplies are cut. In some instances, plants which con vert the paper into boxes, envelopes and other products are located near the paper mills. Still another factor is that pulpwood prices are lower in the South than elsewhere. In 1955 rough pine pulpwood averaged about $2 per cord less in the South than in the Lake States. Furtherm ore, the price spread between south ern pine and northeastern softwood was even greater. Pulp mill capacity in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee increased from 783,000 tons in 1947 to a little over 2 million tons in 1957, an increase of 167 per cent (T a b le 2 ) . F ifteen mills were operating in TABLE 2 ANNUAL WOODPULP PLANT CAPAQTY (thousands of tons) 1947________1957 Mid-South ............................................... 783 South" ...................................................... 6 ,024 United S ta te s..........................................12,789 Sources: Per cent increase 2 ,0 9 3 * 167 14,780 145 26,159 105 United States Pulp Producers Association, Inc., i/4/Ar//<r.r, 22nd Edition, 1957. Divisions of Forest Economics, United States Department of Agriculture, <?/ 1951. ^Estimated by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on basis of data in United States Forest Service Release 80, 1936 .Sox;/?, 1957. the area in late 1957, and plans for sub stantial additional capacity had been announced. Mill capacity grew 145 per cent in the twelve southern states cov ered in T able 2 and doubled in the na tion in the same period. T he mid-South's share of the nation's mill capacity in creased from 6 to 8 per cent and its share of pulp production in 1957 was estimated at 9 per cent. Mills throughout the South have op erated at a high per cent of c a p a c ity higher than the national average and s u b s t a n t i a l l y higher than some other m ajor producing c e n t e r s . ^ D uring the eleven years 1946 to 1956, inclusive, output from southern mills averaged 92.7 per cent of capacity. T he minimum of 85.7 per cent in any year (T a b le 3 ) TABLE 3 WOODPULP PRODUCTtON A S PER CENT OF PLANT CAPAOTY FOR SELECTED REC!O N S AND FOR THE UNiTED STATES 1 946-1956* Year New Engtand Middie Attantic Lake West South United States 1946 89.3 85.7 87.9 85.2 87.9 87.4 1947 91.9 87.8 90.2 94.1 95.6 93.4 91.3 1948 92.3 79.0 85.1 91.1 95.0 1949 82.3 68.0 70.9 82.6 85.7 81.3 1950 87.6 80.4 82.1 91.6 96.9 91.8 1951 92.2 88.0 86.6 93.6 96.2 93 .5 77.4 79.4 89.2 91.2 87.8 74.6 82.3 89.1 95.5 89.9 88.6 89.5 86.0 9 2 .6 1952 1953 1954 84.7 81.7 84.4 71.1 83.7 1955 93.3 76.3 87.9 9 4 .6 94.4 1956 93.2 85.8 88.5 92 .7 91.8 9 1.4 October 1957, pp. 240-243. Page 85 The Ftow of Pu!p Products from Fibrous Raw M a te ria l to Markets, United States, 1955 T .L H E F L O W of various raw materials to the final paper and paper board markets is shown in the above chart. United States production of pulpwood accounted for about 60 per cent of the total domestic supply of fiber for the industry in 1955. Imports of pulpwood and woodpulp accounted for about 10 per cent, w astepaper 27 per cent, and rags plus other fibrous m aterials 3 per cent. About 2 per cent of the domestic supply of pulp m aterials was exported, and 3 per cent was used in non paper products, such as rayon, acetate, cellophane, and plastics. About 30 million tons of fibrous materials were used in domestic production of paper and paperboard. An additional 5.4 million tons were imported in the form of paper and paperboard (prim arily newsprint from C an a d a ); exports totaled 800 thousand tons, about 2 per cent of the total supply. Almost h alf (4 6 per cen t) of paper and paperboard consumed dom es tically is converted into boxes, bags, shipping crates and the like, for use Page 86 in industry, trade, and in the home. About 24 per cent moves directly into wholesale and retail trade, and 30 per cen t is used for printing and publishing purposes. On balance, the nation is an importer of both raw materials for the pulp and paper industry, and paper and paperboard products. About 20 per cent of the fiber in domestically consumed pulp and paper products in 1955 was im ported. Newsprint accounts for about two-thirds of the total imports, w ith woodpulp and pulpwood com prising most of the rem aining third. D om estic consumption of newsprint in 1955 was about 6.5 million tons, of w hich 5.6 million, or more than 80 per cent, was imported. P ractically all pulpwood, pulp, and paper imports are obtained from Canada. W hile the pulpwood t.and pulp imports are generally for deliverv to mills near the border, newsprint is shipped to cities through out the United States. D uring the course of history, the pulp and paper making industry has made use of a wide choice of raw materials. Most all low -cost fibrous materials have been used by the industry. According to historians, the Chinese made paper out of bamboo and m ulberry in the second centurv A.D. Flax and cotton were m ajor sources of fiber for paper in the Arab nations prior to the development of the industry in Europe. E u ro pean papermakers used linen rags, waste paper, fishing nets, grasses, cereals, jute esparto, and many other fibrous raw materials. Prior to the Civil W ar, rags were the major source of raw material for pulp and paper in the United States. B ut as the war progressed, the heavy demand for paper caused an acute rag shortage, and many papci mills began to use esparto (a grass imported from the M editerranean a rea ). About 1870, woodpulp came into use as a source of raw material for pulp and paper. Its use advanced steadily, and in 1956 woodpulp accounted for about 70 per cent of all fibers consumed in the nation's pulp and paper industry. Page 87 Kinds of Woodpuip and Paper Produced in the Mid-South A t , L OF THE MAJOR PROCESSES for making pulp are used in the mid-South. However, of the three chemical pulps, sulphite, soda, and sulphate ( or kraft), only the latter two are used, and output of kraft is by far the greater of the two. Only three mills in 1957 used more than one pulp manufacturing process. Sulphate (Kraft) Pulp—The first pulp mills in the mid-South were designed exclusively for the production of sulphate, or kraft, pulp, and this remains the leading pulp produced in the area despite the rapid expansion of groundwood pulp capacity in recent years. In the sulphate process, debarked and chipped wood is cooked in a digester with sodium sulphate and steam under high pressure for two to three hours. Ugnin and other materials in the wood are dissolved, leaving the more resistant cellulose fibers. These fibers are brought into the paper machine in a near liquid state and formed into a continuous sheet of paper or board. Heat and the added chemicals are recovered from the dissolved materials. In addition, valuable by-products, such as sulphate turpentine, lignin, and tall oil (a source of fatty acids, resin, and pitch) are recovered when pine pulpwood is used. The market for kraft from southern pine has greatly expanded in recent years. Initially, kraft produced in the mid-South was classed as number "two" and had limited usage. It now, however, stands out as the universal pulp Rber usable in all types of paper and paper board, rayon and other cellulose products, as well as in tissues. Kraft is the strongest paper made from wood, making it especially desirable for packaging and wrapping. While its natural color is brown, it may be bleached or semibleached. Unbleached kraft is used primarily for industrial papers, such as boxboard, bags or wrapping paper. Early bleaching processes resulted in a weaker paper, but about the beginning of World War II a multistage process which left kraft fibers with most of their original strength and toughness came into use. Now bleached and semibleached kraft are considered substantially interchangeable with all other types of white pulp. They may be used in books, fine bond, envelopes, writing paper, and newsprint, as well as for industrial purposes. Initially, kraft pulps in the mid-South were made almost exclu sively from fresh-cut southern pine. While the best kraft paper is still made from freshly cut softwoods, practically all types of hard wood and all ages of wood may now be made into pulp by the kraft process. One of the major disadvantages of kraft pulp is that its fiber yield is only about 30 per cent (a half ton of fiber for each ton of wood) compared to a yield of almost 100 per cent for both groundwood and semichemical pulp. Groundwood Pulp—Groundwood pulp is next in importance in the mid-South. This pulp is produced by a mechanical process in which the logs are pressed against rapidly revolving stone wheels, reducing them to small fibrous particles. This method produces a high yield of pulp and paper at relatively low cost. It is especially adapted for making newsprint, where strength and durability are of secondary importance. Prior to World War II most newsprint was made from groundwood and unbleached sulphite. However, about that time, the process was perfected for making newsprint from southern pine groundwood blended with semibleached or unbleached kraft at the ratio of approximately five pounds of groundwood to one pound of kraft pulp. When this was done, the newsprint indus try in the South was born. It grew rapidly, and in 1937 Tennessee became one of the largest producers of newsprint in the United States. Page 88 TABLE 5 PULP GRADES PRODUCED )N THE MtD-SOUTH 1947 Grades of pu!p Number of produced Sutphate ............................. Groundwood and M echanical............... Dissolving .............................. Expioded ................................ Semichemica! 1957 Capacity Number in tons of Capacity in tons Mi!!s per day Mi)!s per day 3 1,084 6 3,000 5 1,492 0 1 2 307 0 800 1 1 863 800 437 ...................... 3 210 4 S o d a .......................................... JL 140 1 200 Tota!.............................. 10 2,541 15* 6 ,794 * Total adds to 18 because three mills produce two kinds of pulp. Sources: Divisions of Forest Economics, United States Department of A gricultu re, /w/ofyyMf/on /or 1951. January 1954 and October 1957. Semichemical Process-The semichemical process of pulp making is an in-between method consisting of cooking pulpwood chips in one of the chemicals to soften them and separating the fibers in disc refiners. This process is a recent discovery for making desirable pulps from hardwoods. Prior to 1940, the soda process was used to make most hardwood pulps, which were manufactured into printing papers whose lower folding strength and tear resistance are not im portant factors. With the semichemical process, much stronger paper from hardwood pulps is possible. Possibilities for blending semichemica! hardwood pulps with kraft pine pulp are opening up a whole new market for many hardwood species. In 1936 one mill in the mid-South went into full production of such blended paper, from which milk cartons, paper cups, and similar packaging materials are made. These developments are espe cially important in this area where both hardwoods and pine are abundant and the market for hardwoods was previously limited to high-quality trees of a few species. Defibrated Pulp—Exploded, or defibrated, pulp is used in making various types of insulation and hardboards, including acoustical ceil ing tile, accounting for about one-eighth of the pulp produced in the mid-South. Apparently, pine is the only species of timber to which this process is adapted. Dissolving Pulp—Over 10 per cent of the mid-South plant capacity in 1937 was designed for making dissolving woodpulp, using the sulphate process. Paper and board mills use certain grades of this product, but its major use is in nonpaper products. Rayon and ace tate account for about 60 per cent of the nonpaper consumption, and cellophane for about 18 per cent. Other uses include cellulose plas tics, sponges, sausage casings, and miscellaneous specialties. Appar ently, only the conifers are adapted to making dissolving pulps. The Soda Process—Only a small per cent of mid-South pulp is produced by the soda process, which, however, preceded the kraft process and was the chief way of making pulp from hardwoods prior to 1940. Wood chips are boiled in caustic soda under steam pressure, breaking them down into fibers. The soda is recovered and used again. Such pulp is used primarily for making books and fine paper. in the large, modern mills in the area. Em ploym ent in y 4 r^ i E r^ ^ w y In 1956 pulp and paper company purchases of pulpwood in the South totaled $405 millioiT and mill and factory payrolls totaled $351 million, while $21 million was spent for professional and other forestry services, according to the Southern Pulpwood Con servation A s s o c i a t i o n . Together these i t e ms are equivalent to almost one-fourth of the total farm pro prietors' income in the South. In the three mid-South states, wages and salaries paid out by the pulpwood. pulp, and paper industry cutting and transporting the pulpwood to concentra tion centers rose from about 10.000 in 1947 to about 17,000 in 1957, or approxim ately the same percent age as the increase in pulpwood production. The rapid increase in pulpwood consumption in the South during the three decades 1926 to 1956 further indicates the impact of the industry on the three midSouth states. Consumption of pulpwood at southern mills rose from 1.1 million cords in 1926 to 20.2 million cords in 1956 (T a b le 4 ) . The South's share of total national consumption increased from 16.7 per cent in 1926 to 56.5 per cent in 1956. in 1956 arc estimated at $128 million, or approximately one-sixth as much as farm proprietors earned there. TABLE 4 Furtherm ore, such wages and salaries more than tri PULPWOOD CONSUMPTtON BY YEARS pled in the decade betw een 1947 and 1957, while farm (th o u s a n d proprietors' income declined about 15 per cent, M!D-SOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS !N THE PULP AND PAPER !NDUSTRY - l t30 co rd s) Year The South 1926 1,134 6,766 16.7 1931 1,925 28.7 34.9 37.5 Yota! United States 1936 3,047 6,723 8.716 1941 6,227 16,580 of Iota! 1946 7,518 17,818 42.2 1951 12,854 26,522 48.5 1936 20,196 35,749 56.5 Source: for 1926-1951 data. October 1954, p. 2 14, O ctober 19 5 7 , p. 243 for 1956 data. Pu!p mms 20 65 i9 4 7 )957 [9 4 7 !9 5 7 The industry in the mid-South is, to a great extent, integrated with that of the rest of the South. For example, pulp mills in Louisiana process some pulp wood from Arkansas. Alabam a mills purchase pulp wood from Mississippi, and some Georgia wood is shipped to mills in E a st Tennessee. On balance, the three mid-South states exported about 5 per cent of their pulpwood production in 1957, processing about M iss is sip pi and T e n n e s s e e E m p l o y m e n t Sec ur ity D iv is io n s . Data for p u l p w o o d ha r ve st in g e st im at ed by the F e d e ra l R ese rv e B a n k o f 95 per cent. The pulp and paper industry is one of the fastest Em ploym ent, like wages and salaries, also increased substantially. From approximately 22,000 in 1947, the number of workers in the industry increased to approximately 38,000 in 1957. Th e estimated number of factory workers engaged in making paper and con verted paper products rose Irom about 12,000 to approximately 21,000, an increase of 75 per cent during the decade. Pulp production increased by 2.5 times over the period as production per man rose much faster than total employment. This change points up the increasing cfRcicncy of labor utilization growing industries in the m id-South, and prospects are excellent lor additional growth. W ith the nation's demand for paper and paperboard expected to con tinue upward, a substantial portion of the additional plant capacity necessary for m eeting demand growth will probably be located there. Supplies of suitable timber, a major factor in determ ining the location of new plants, appear more nearly adequate in the midSouth than in most other sections of the nation. C L IF T O N PHYLLIS B. LU TTRELL C. ELSASS Page 89 O F CURRE NT C O N D ! T ) O N S T M ID -Y EA R , hopeful signs of a firming trend in the econom y are emerging. Some slowing of the decline was evident in M ay and June, when several key indicators registered the best showing since the beginning of the recession. A possible sign of improvement is the rise in the basic steel industry. Steel mill operations had dropped to 47 per cent of capacity during April. After eight successive weekly gains, production in the week end ing June 21 was 1.73 million tons with mills running at 64 per cent of capacity. An upsurge in activity at steel plants in the St. Louis area brought production from 61 per cent of capacity in April to 95 per cent in June, the highest rate since the beginning of the downturn last fall. However, the prospect of a price rise in July makes the substantial gain in steel pro duction and shipments difficult to assess, since some of the upturn may have resulted from hedge buying. On the other hand, consumption has run ahead of production all of this year and replenishment of depleted inventories probably accounts for some of the increase. Auto production in M ay was up from the April rate and continued firm in June, but output was still down about one-third from year-ago levels. More cutbacks are scheduled for early summer in prepara tion for the new models. new nonfarm private housing starts in the nation moved upward from an annual rate of 950,000 in April to about 1,000,000 in May. Applications for FH A insurance of mortgages on proposed one to fourfamily-homes rose sharply to the highest level since early 1955, suggesting a further expansion in building activity. Personal income, which has been maintained at a relatively high rate throughout the recession, has been rising for three successive months. Gains in M arch and April stemmed largely from increases in unemployment compensation and a rise in social security benefit payments. In May, however, the gain of $1.2 billion included a $700 million gain in wages and salaries, the first increase from this source since last August. T h e num ber of persons receiving unemployment benefits, w hich had mounted steadily since last fall, began leveling off in mid-April. By the end of May, insured unemployment was about the same as in Ja n uary of this year. T h e drop in insured unemploy m ent betw een April and May was the result of more than 200,000 persons exhausting their benefit rights and some persons being recalled to work. Total unem ployment, although improved by the recall of workers (especially those engaged in outdoor w o rk), was aggravated by the usual spring entrance of students to the labor force. T he increased activity in steel and autos was reHected in the Fed eral Reserve Board's national index of industrial production, which edged up one point in M ay to 127 per cent of the 1947-1949 average. This was the Rrst month-to-month gain in the index since June 1957. Im provem ent was also shown by the num ber of railroad cars moving ores, grain, and finished products. F reig h t car loadings reached 622,000 on June 14, the highest recorded this year. D istrict lum ber production is up. Southern pine output has been running ahead of year-ago levels since the m iddle of M ay, and in the week ending June 14 was 13 per cent over the like week in 1957. Hardwood mills w hich have been running at about 70 per cent of capacity increased in June to 82 per cent. O utput of aluminum and lead, however, was cut in May at district plants. Stim ulated by an increase in the supply of m ort gage money and liberalization of VA and FHA terms, Page 90 Unemployment in the major metropolitan areas of the E igh th Fed eral Reserve D istrict was reduced slightly betw een April and May. Th e number of claimants for unemployment insurance decreased from m id-April to m id-M ay in E v a n s v ille , L ittle Rock, Memphis, and St. Louis bu t increased in Louisville. M id-June insured unemployment decreased in all five areas from m id-M ay levels. Nationally, nonagricultural em ployment in May showed an increase over April, w hich was the first better than seasonal rise since last August. M anufac turing em ploym ent fell again in M ay and was 1.7 million, or 10 per cent, under th at of a year ago. Sea sonal resumption of construction activity was the big factor in offsetting the decrease in m anufacturing em ploym ent betw een April and M ay. Although the num b er of people working in the nation's factories in May was down from April, the average num ber of hours worked per week was up slightly. In the five largest district m etropolitan areas, em ployment remained at about the same levels from April to May. W ith the exception of L ittle Rock and St. Louis, February em ployment was at the 1958 low point in district areas. A February to May com pari son shows employment increases of less than 1 per cent in Evansville and Memphis, white Louisville had the same number employed in May as February. L ittle Rock has had increases each month since the beginning of the year, but St. Louis area employment was at its 1958 low point in May. holdings of district banks, which have been occurring for several months, reflect reduced business activity and a n o n re stric tiv e monetary policy. In v e stm e n t holdings of weekly reporting banks in the district, as well as in the rest of the nation, have increased sub stantially in recent months, as can be seen from the accompanying chart, which shows the cumulative LOANS AND !NVESTMENTS WEEKLY REPORUNG BANKS Bittion DoHars Unemployment averaged 8 to 10 per cent of the labor force in May in Evansville, Louisville, Memphis and St. Louis. W ith the addition of Memphis on M ay 28, all four areas are now officially classified by the D epartm ent of Labor as areas of substantial labor surplus. In M ay a year ago unemployment averaged betw een 4 and 5 per cent in these areas. Consumer spending has held at a high rate all year, although the pattern of spending has changed, with less going for durable goods and more for nondurables and services. Nationally, total retail and department store sales in May were slightly less than a year ago. At district departm ent stores, sales through June 21 were down 4 per cent from last year. Another factor to be taken into account is the re duced outlay for plant and equipment. According to the latest Commerce D epartm ent-SEC Survey, antici pated business outlays for fixed capital in 1958 will be $30.8 billion, 17 per cent less than actual expenditures in 1957. E arning assets of district weekly reporting banks rose $42 million from mid-April through June 18, with all of the growth occurring in investment hold ings. Holdings of United States Government bonds increased $45 million in the nine weeks. Businesses, on the other hand, reduced their indebtedness at district banks at a somewhat sharper rate than in the like period of recent years. N et repayments of these loans amounted to $40 million, or 5 per cent. Partially offsetting the contraction in business loans were sizable net increases ($ 2 8 m illion) in loans on securities, primarily to brokers and dealers. In late May and early June, loans on securities at district weekly reporting banks exceeded $100 million, the highest level of borrowings on securities at these banks since early 1946. "O ther," largely consumer, loans rose moderately, while advances to finance real estate declined somewhat. T h e recen t changes in business loans and investment changes in bank loans and investments since the beginning of the year. Largely as a result of the lowered reserve requirem ents on demand deposits of banks and the smaller demand for business loans, dis trict weekly reporting banks have purchased invest ments on balance. Investm ents of district banks at the beginning of the year were 40 per cent of total earn ing assets, whereas on June 18 these holdings con stituted 45 per cent of the total. In contrast to the sizable loan contraction at the urban banks during the first half of the year, indica tions are that the rural area banks extended an aver age amount of credit in the Erst half of this year. Page 91 ^ VARiOUS !ND!CATORS OF !NDUSTR[AL ACT!V!TY Coal Production Index— 8^h^^ist. ^Seasonally adjusted, 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 = ^ 1 0 0 ) .......................... ^84.1 p 1?" .) E a st St. Louis— N ational Stock Yards, IH....................................... $ 1 4 4.2 Evansville, In d ............ 1 6 4 .6 L ittle Rock, Ark. . . 2 1 3 .9 Louisville, K y ................. 9 3 4 .7 Memphis, Tenn. 74 5.5 St. Louis, M o ................. _ 2 ,2 3 5 .7 1958 1957 3S 3 1 — — — — — 13 + 2 + 6 — 4 — 9 3 Tota l— Six Largest C e n ters........................$ 4 ,4 3 8 .6 5% $ E l Dorado, Ark............ F ort Sm ith, Ark. G reenville, M iss.......... H annibal, Mo. Owensboro, Ky............ Paducah, Ky. ............. Pine Bluff, Ark............... Quincy, 111................... S edalia, M o ................... Springfield, M o............. T exarkana, A r k ........... —16 M ;"y 21 1958 $ 1 ,5 8 9 762 107 273 474 1 ,0 3 0 259 28 951 43 $ 3 ,9 0 0 $— 4 — 15 + H — 3 + 5 + 7 + 10 + 23 + 00 — 1 $ + 95 4 2 .8 1 6 .2 2 9 .5 5 8 .7 2 7 .2 12.0 8.0 2 6 .0 12 1.0 4 8 .7 2 9 .7 3 9 .4 4 5 .8 18 .0 100.8 19.8 + H% — 6 — 1 -{- 1 + 7 - 0— 18 — 2 — 21 + 4 + 7 — 4 + 6 + 7 + 5 + 3 - 0- % — 2 — 8 6 4 3 .6 — + Dem and D eposits of Banks Other Demand Deposits + ? + 1 + 9 — g - 0+ 45 $ 722 2 ,1 2 7 661 83 307 § 3 ,9 0 0 $ + 25 + 67 + 6 — 4 + 1 $ -9 5 ^ 'w e e k f % S d ? d ^ 6 -1 8 -5 8 Business of Borrower M anufacturing and M ining: S— 4 — 7 + 3 2 1 — — Retail .......... —- 1 Com modity d ca t.rs — 4 4 . + 1 — 1 + 5 All Other T o ta l.................................................. $— 17 elude loans to banks; the total is reported n et; breakdowns are reported - Changes in business loans by industry classification from a sample of banks holding roughly 9 0 % of the total com m ercial and industrial loans outstanding at Eighth D istrict weekly reporting m em ber banks. -— 5 — 4 4- 6 + 10 + 10 — 3 CASH FAR/A !N C O M E C O N S T R U C T IO N C O N TR A C T S A W ARDED )N EtGHTH FEDERAL RESERVE D iSTR iC T * T o ta l— Other Centers T otal— 2 2 Centers Jun<-18 1958 Liabilities and Capital Other Reporting C enters: . + ^^ ! D !ST R !C T W EEKLY R E PO R TtN G MEMBER BA N KS Six Largest C enters: ^ - 4 M ay 1 9 5 8 ^ 1958 A lto n ^ Ill. ^ — ^7 r J^ad ^ ^ ^ )y Vv^ ^ ) SA N K D E B !T $ I May 1958^ Compared with Apr. ! 9 5 8 May 1 95 7 May $ . $ 5 ,0 8 2 .2 3 % - 0- % 8% Apr. '5 8 — 3% IN D E X O F BANK D E B I T S — 2 2 Centers Seasonally Adjusted ( 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 4 9 = 1 0 0 ) 1958 1 7 3 .2 1957 *173.6 179.3 7 States 8th D istrict! 195 8 $ 3 2 ,1 4 0 1 5 4 ,8 7 5 8 4 ,2 0 7 2 5 ,4 2 6 2 8 .7 1 3 7 7 ,2 5 6 2 6 ,3 9 6 4 2 9 ,0 1 3 1 7 7 ,6 0 9 1 9 58*^ * A jr ."'5 7 9 5 7 ^ ' '1 9 5 ^ + 2 3% + 9 % — 17% 3 + 10 + ^ + 14 + 8 + 1 13 — 6 + 6 + 19 — 23 + 8 + 16 + 12 + 7 + 17 . + — 6 1 + 12 - 0+ 2 — 3 + 13 +* 2 19 5 8 1957 $ 1 2 1 ,5 0 4 4 0 ,8 2 3 5 4 ,8 5 4 $ 1 0 6 ,2 6 2 4 7 ,5 3 0 3 6 ,5 8 9 2 5 ,8 2 7 2 2 ,1 4 3 1958 Total .............$ 1 2 9 ,5 5 2 Residential 5 0 ,3 6 0 PubH ^w Skf and Utilities 3 2 ,5 3 6 ra tio n .""^ ^ !N D EX ES O F SA LES A N D S T O C K S — 8TH D iSTR tCT DEPARTM ENT S TO R ES M ay 1958 Apr. 1958 Mar. 1958 May 1957 1 37 . . 136 123 130 1 49 141 117 134 146 140 138 137 151 151 Outstanding Apr. 3 0 / 5 8 , N et Sales M ay, 1 9 5 8 8th F .R . D istrict T otal F ort Sm ith Area, A rk.l L ittle Rock Area, Ark. E vansville Area, Ind. Louisville Area, Ky., Ind. Louisville (City) Paducah, Ky. St. Louis Area, M o., 111. ^ St. L o iu s^ C ity )^ All Other Cities- + 11% + 23 + 11 — 7 + 7 + 5 + 2 + 1 + 16 + 14 -j-1 3 + 13 + 6 — 6 ^ 5 n i o s .'5 8 — 4% — 1% — 4 + 7 - 0+ 1 — 3 - 0— 20 — 20 — 5 + 1 :— 7 — 3 + 2 + 16 — 3 + 1 — 5 — 1 — 4 — 6 ^ 7 — 5 — 11 — 9 ^ ^ Excluding 15% 52% 41 30 15 41 16 62 13 36 2 Fayetteville, Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Harrisburg, Mt. Vernon, Illinois; V incennes, Indiana; D anville, Hopkinsville, MavReld, Owensboro, Kentucky; C hillicothe, M is souri; G reenville, Mississippi; and Jackson, Tennessee. 3 D aily average 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 — 100 4 E n d of M onth average 1 9 4 7 -4 9 — 1 0 0 T rading days: M ay, 1 9 5 8 — 2 6 ; Apr., 1 9 5 8 — 2 6 ; M ay, 1 9 5 7 — 2 6 . RETAtL FURN !TURE S T O R E S N et Sales M ay, 1958 Apr., '5 8 8th D ist. T otal* + + + + + + 15% 13 26 3 38 36 May, '5 7 — 2% — 6 + 3 + 6 + 1S — 2