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^JTTR^I Released for Publication ir\ Marairj/g.JfojiJrs of February 3, 1945 1— . J L ^ . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RUD O LPH H ELB A C H P H O TO IN D U STR Y AND E M P LO YM E N T H E year 1944 witnessed a slow decline from peak levels of war production in the Eighth District and some shift from manufacturing to nonmanufacturing activity. The previous year saw a steady and rapid growth in war output to the peak reached in the early fall of 1943. After that date production for war in the district fell off gradually until by September, 1944 it was well below peak level. The down trend leveled off during the banance of the year and by year-end war output was rising again, although it seemed unlikely that it would again attain its previous peak. T The decline in war output in the district is attested to some extent by the lower volum e of new war supply contracts let in 1944. A bout $1.8 billion in new large war supply contracts (those of $50,000 or more each, exclusive’ of food contracts) were let in 1944, about one-fourth less than in the previous year. Prewrar (1939) value of all manufactured products in the district was $2.4 billion. Excluding food products, it was probably less than $2 billion. Between June, 1940 and December, 1942 the Eighth District, like the nation as a whole, prepared its in dustries for war by building new facilities and con verting established factories. In this period the v ol ume of facility awards, $1.8 billion, about equaled the volume of large supply contracts. Since Decem ber, 1942 dollar volume of facility awards in the dis trict has been relatively small. The net change, which includes some offsets in the form of cancellations of awards made prior to December, 1942, has been only $30 million. In the same period, however, more than $4 billion in supply contracts have been let in the district. Some 40 per cent were in ordnance con tracts, another 40 per cent in aircraft and ship con tracts, and the balance in other war goods. Ord nance contracts in the district were about three times as important relatively as they were in na tional schedules. This concentration of district supply contracts in ordnance resulted in an appreciable slackening in district war output when ordnance schedules were cut back nationally. The cutbacks were not offset in this area by expansions in other lines, since district aircraft and ship manufacture was not of the type marked for rapid expansion and consequently did little more than hold its own. The cutbacks in war major industrial areas Louis and Evansville. program, emphasis on Page 2 output primarily affected the of the district, especially St. A t the beginning of the war decentralization resulted in some industrialization of areas outside the metro politan regions, but as the program grew, the big cities got more and more supply contracts. A t the peak almost 90 per cent of all large supply contracts in the district were with firms in St. Louis, Louis ville, Memphis and Evansville. W ith cutbacks con centrated in these cities, the close of 1944 saw but 86 per cent of total supply awards held there. The decline in war output in the district in 1944 was offset to some extent by increases in other lines, primarily food, apparel and leather manufacture. The offset, however, was not complete and total manufacturing activity slackened somewhat after midyear. Reflecting this condition, consumption of industrial electric power in important district cities in 1944 was 2 per cent below that of 1943. In the last half of the year only one month, October, showed greater use of electrical power than in the corres ponding month of 1943, whereas three of the first six months in 1944 were higher than those of 1943. The record of the year in manufacturing shows that output of steel, alcohol, lumber and petroleum in the district ran below that of 1943, while shoe production, meat packing and coal mining were above the previous year. These latter industries picked up most of their gains in the last half of the year. For example, shoe production in the first six months of 1944 was virtually unchanged from that of the comparable period in 1943, but for the entire year the gain over 1943 was about 3 per cent. The drop in total industrial output in the district was accompanied by declining industrial em ploy ment. Layoffs at the major war plants ran into the thousands. Most of these displaced workers were usable in other manufacturing lines or in nonmanu facturing activity, but many of them left the labor market. Despite this fact, and additional with drawals for military service, labor supply in the dis trict eased appreciably over the year. At the close of 1944 there were no rated labor shortage areas in the district and only Louisville and Pine Bluff were classed as regions with any immediate prospects of labor shortages. St. Louis, Memphis and Little R ock were all classed as labor surplus areas, and Evansville, once the tightest labor market region in the district, was rated as an area of current surplus with only some future possibility of a shortage de veloping. In September, the latest month for which data is available, factory employment in St. Louis and Evansville was off 17 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. R E T A IL The dollar volume of 1944 retail trade ran well ahead of 1943, as consumer purchasing power con tinued to expand, despite heavy taxes and large pur chases of Government securities. Buying, of neces sity, was concentrated in the nondurable goods field, since most durables either were not available or wrere in very short supply. Much of the increase in dollar sales was due to price advances, both direct and indirect. Indirect price rises resulted from a combination of factors, such as disappearance of lower priced lines, con sumer preference for higher priced lines, additions of unnecessary, and in some cases, unwanted features to standard items, and the like. Perhaps as much as half of the total dollar increase in retail sales other than food over the prewar level is due to direct price advances, and a considerable portion of the balance is due to indirect price increases. A t department stores in the Eighth Federal R e serve District the dollar volum e of trade in 1944 totaled about $270 million, 12 per cent more than in 1943. Increases over the comparable period of 1943 were larger in the latter part of the year than in the earlier portion. There were, however, no pronounced scare-buying waves in 1944. Purchasing was on a broad scale in terms of goods-types and was heavy throughout the year. W ith the exception of Feb ruary, dollar sales in every month of 1944 were greater than in the corresponding month of 1943. February, 1943 sales were abnormally high, as that month was characterized by the last scare-buying movement evident in this district. Sales increases over 1943 at department stores were largest in w om en’s wear, piece goods, small wares and miscellaneous items departments. Sales of m en’s and b oy s’ clothing and of home furnishings, while larger than a year earlier, did not register the pronounced increases characteristic of the other lines. These circumstances reflect the removal of most young men from the civilian goods market in the case of the small gains in men’s wear sales, and the lack of goods to sell in the case of home furnish ings sales. The so-called soft home furnishings lines showed relatively high increases over 1943, but dur able goods sales shrank still further from the very low level of 1943. Other lines of retail trade whose statistics are available to this bank did not show as large gains in dollar volume of sales as did department stores. W om en ’s apparel shops in St. Louis merely main tained their 1943 volume, while district men’s fur TRADE nishings stores registered an increase of but 3 per cent. District shoe stores showed a gain of about 11 per cent over 1943. Furniture stores located in the St. Louis district sold 4 per cent more in 1944 than in 1943. Most of the increase in sales in these various types of trade was due to pronounced sales gains in the last part of the year which more than compensated for sales declines in the first part of 1944. A t fur niture stores, for example, sales in the first eight months of 1944 averaged some 5 per cent below the comparable period in 1943, with only two months, March and May, showing increases over the com parable months of the earlier year. In the last four months, however, furniture store sales averaged some 20 per cent higher than in 1943. Performance in men’s furnishings stores and wom en’s apparel stores was much like that of furniture stores. Shoe store sales showed more consistent gains over the same months for 1943 than did the other lines. Generally speaking, inventories of retail lines re porting to this bank were maintained in 1944 at about the same level as in 1943. Department store, men’s store and shoe store stocks ran somewhat ahead of the earlier year in dollar volume, while fur niture stocks were somewhat lower. In every in stance, however, except for shoe stores, year-end stocks were below the level of December, 1943. The movement of stocks under present conditions is considerably more erratic than under more normal circumstances. The volume of outstanding orders runs appreciably higher than usual, with most stores taking deliveries whenever they can get them, This fact, coupled with inventory control, tends to make stock volume change more violently than is true of peacetime periods. The volume of purchases for cash continued to grow relatively more than those for credit in 1944. The change, however, was not as great as in earlier years, as consumer preference for cash buying ap parently has approached its maximum and controls over the volume of consumer credit have reduced credit sales to close to minimum levels. Thus, at furniture stores cash sales accounted for 21 per cent of total sales in 1944, as compared with 20 per cent in 1943. A t department stores in 1944 about tw othirds of all charge account receivables were col lected in the month follow ing purchases and about one-third of all instalment receivables were so col lected, ratios not much changed from the previous year. Page 3 B A N K IN G AN D FIN AN CE Banking developments in the Eighth District in 1944 were dominated by the needs of war financing and the accumulations of liquid funds by business concerns and the general public. During the year there was a continuation of deposit grow th as banks added heavily to their holdings of Government securities. Since the year-end came shortly after the close of the Sixth W ar Loan Drive, a consider able part of the deposit growth during the year occurred in U. S. Government deposits. Demand deposits of business concerns and individuals also increased and a particularly marked rise occurred in time and savings deposits, which are largely held by individuals. The grow th in deposits was m ostly concentrated in banks in rural areas, where the gap between in come and expenditures plus taxes and Government security purchases is greater than in the urban centers. M ost of the deposit grow th in private de mand accounts was in balances of individuals. At the close of the year total loans outstanding at the weekly reporting member banks of the district amounted to $473 million, some $58 million, or 14 per cent higher than a year earlier, and slightly above the level reached just before Pearl Harbor. For the 12-month period total loan volume ran about 7 per cent ahead of 1943, with O ctober the only month of the year in which loans were smaller than in the corresponding month in 1943. The rela tively high volume of bank loans at the year-end resulted largely from loans for the purpose of financ ing securities purchased during the Sixth W ar Loan Drive, and about two-thirds of the increase over the year occurred in such loans. Loans for this purpose reach peak levels during W ar Loan drive periods and are retired in subsequent months. The balance of the loan increase was in the “ other” category, as commercial, industrial and agricultural loans at dis trict reporting banks did little more than hold even in 1944. A t the banks located in the smaller centers and rural sections of the district demand for bank credit remained extremely light during most of the year. Farmers in the district added to their already strong cash position and in most areas the liquidation of old loans exceeded new advances. A t the end of December bankers in many rural sections of the dis trict reported loan volum e to be at a new low. The total amount of demand deposits held at the large city banks at year’s end was about $300 million greater than at the close of 1943. Alm ost one-half Page 4 the gain was temporarily in Government accounts, which were at peak levels at the close of December, follow ing the Sixth W ar Loan Drive. During the year a substantial volume of the public's spendable funds was used for purchases of Government securi ties, resulting in periodic transfers of deposits to W ar Loan accounts. As the Treasury draws upon its balances to meet expenditures, funds are shifted back to private accounts. W hen averaged over the 12-month period, the increase in Goverment deposits wras about $76 million over a year earlier, and the increase in deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations about $66 million. Tim e deposits at the city banks increased about 25 per cent in the same period. A t rural banks in the district heavy income pay ments to farmers swelled deposit totals during the year, particularly in the months of the fall crop mar keting season. A t these smaller banks deposit v ol ume is not affected greatly by Treasury transactions, as the use of W ar Loan accounts is not so wide spread nor so intensive as at urban institutions. Consequently, a sizable portion of their rise in de posits was added to balances with correspondent city banks. A t the close of 1944 interbank deposits at the larger district banks totaled over $600 million, some $90 million more than in December, 1943. Deposit grow th in the past year continued to stem primarily from bank investment in Government securities, and the ratio of investments to loans in' creased to about 3 to 1 in 1944. A t the end of the year the total amount of Government securities held at banks located in the major cities of the district had increased $267 million. Two-thirds of the gain was in Treasury notes and the remainder was about equally divided between bonds and certificates. H oldings of notes and bonds registered a fairly steady grow th during the year, while holdings of 90-day Treasury bills showed large fluctuations as banks used these securities to adjust their reserve positions. A t the end of December holdings of bills were at about the same level as a year earlier. Required reserves of Eighth District banks rose about $70 million from December, 1943 to December, 1944. Funds to meet increased reserve requirements and the heavy flow of money into circulation were supplied largely by Federal Reserve purchases of Government securities. Since the last issue of this Review the Bank of Holden, Holden, Missouri has becom e a member of the Federal Reserve System. AGRICULTURE General Farming Conditions — In terms of aggre gate production and cash income, Eighth District agriculture broke all records in 1944. This achieve ment is all the more notew orthy in the light of dif ficulties encountered during the year— flood, drouth, less labor than in 1943, and less farm machinery than could have been used. The year opened with favorable weather, although the outlook was not as good as in 1942 and 1943 since very light rainfall in the previous autumn left subsoil moisture less than desired. In February, heavy rains corrected much of this condition but did not retard farm work appreciably, so that routine was relatively ahead of schedule. In March, April and early May, continued heavy precipitation again „ brought widespread floods over much of the district. The amount of crop lands inundated in 1944 was about as large as in 1943, but the results of the'floods were not as disastrous as in that year, since they came earlier in 1944 and most m ajor crops had not been planted prior to the high waters. As the waters receded, farmers took full advantage of the favor able weather of late May and June to plant large acreages. There were some shifts from original planting intentions, due to the lateness of the season. In July and early August widespread drouth brought fears of substantial crop losses. July pre cipitation averaged less than 50 per cent of normal in regions east of the Mississippi River and but 75 per cent of normal in areas west of the river. The drouth broke in August, however, and most crops were restored by rainfall. Mild temperatures and dry fields in September, O ctober and early N ovem ber proved exceptionally favorable to harvests, so that final outturn of district crops was excellent, with yields at or near record levels. District farmers probably worked longer hours in 1944 than in any recent year, since the farm labor supply was considerably less than normal. Despite the smaller amount of farm labor, it was generally adequate to plant, cultivate and harvest district crops. The exceptionally long and favorable harvest season proved very helpful, in view of the short labor supply, and due primarily to this factor most crops were harvested with relatively little loss, al~ though some stili remained in the fields in late December. W hile the over-all supply of farm labor was generally adequate to handle 1944 production, certain areas experienced rather serious labor short ages. This was particularly true of some cotton and tobacco-grow ing sections. Farm wage rates rose appreciably in 1944. A t the beginning of the current year, farm wage rates in district states averaged some 15 per cent higher than a year earlier, increases ranging from 7 per cent in Indiana to 22 per cent in Missouri. For the country as a whole, farm wage rates on January 1, 1945 were more than three times as large as in the 1910-1914 period. Despite this rapid rise, however, agriculture had difficulty in com peting for labor, since industrial wages were running more than four times as much as in the pre-W orld W ar I period. Production in 1944 of the five basic crops, all of which are grown in the district, was considerably greater than in 1943. In aggregate, the increase in physical output over 1943 was about 16 per cent. The corn harvest was 367 million bushels, 1 per cent greater than in 1943 and 20 per cent above the 19331942 average. Cotton production totaled 3,866,000 bales, 20 per cent more than in 1943 and 17 per cent larger than the ten-year average. W inter wheat out put was 48.5 million bushels, up 73 per cent from the previous year, but 10 per cent below the long time average. T obacco production totaled 324 million pounds, 23 per cent more than in 1943 and one-third greater than the 1933-1942 average. Output of rice in Arkansas was 14.2 million bushels, as compared with 11.9 million bushels in 1943 and an average of 9.1 million bushels in the period 1933-1942. Am ong other important district field crops, 1944 output of tame hay and oats was less than in 1943, but was above ten-year average production. Soy bean production in 1944 was somewhat higher than in the previous year and was more than double average output in the 1933-1942 period. Production of most fruits was considerably greater than in 1943. Peach production was three times as great as in 1943, the pear harvest was up about 75 per cent, and grape output 25 per cent from the pre vious year. The commercial apple crop was down slightly from 1943. W aterm elons were produced in greater volume in 1944 than in 1943. Cantaloupe output was down slightly in the year and straw berry production was off almost 50 per cent. Am ong the more important truck crops, both white and sweet potato production were down from last year, with the former crop off considerably more than the latter. Production of snap beans, spinach and tomatoes for the fresh market was off from 1943, while output of cabbage and onions was somewhat higher. Total production of livestock and livestock proPage 5 ducts in 1944 was not much changed from 1943. The 1944 pig crop in the district was off about 24 per cent from the record set in 1943. The district de cline was not as great as that for the nation as a whole, since pig production in Illinois and Indiana held up very w^ell in 1944. The 1944 lamb crop in district states was also below that of 1943. Slaughter of lambs and sheep was down appreciably in 1944 and as of January 1, 1945 the number on feed in dis trict Corn Belt states was 12 per cent less than a year earlier. The number of cattle on feed in the same states at the beginning of 1945 was 2 per cent more than a year earlier. Milk and egg production in the district were both higher in 1944 than in 1943. The livestock feed situation eased appreciably during 1944, as slaughter reduced livestock numbers considerably and consequently feed supplies per animal unit increased. A t the beginning of 1945, however, feed stocks on Eighth District farms were less than a year earlier, despite the extremely high production of the year. Agricultural prices w^ere generally higher in 1944 than in 1943. Production expenses also increased in the year and the rise in prices paid by farmers, plus interest and taxes, was relatively larger than the gain in prices received. Consequently, the over-all parity ratio m oved downward. In 1944 it averaged 116, in contrast to 119 in 1943. In the prewar year 1939 the ratio of prices paid to prices received aver aged 77 per cent of parity. Total cash farm income in the district in 1944 ran appreciably higher than in 1943, reflecting both in creased prices and larger production, and the fact that 1943 income in the district was somewhat de pressed by the large crop losses resulting from flood and drouth. Returns for the first eleven months of 1944 show cash farm income in Eighth District states at $3.6 million, up 8 per cent from the com parable period in 1943. Increases in income from crops were substantially larger than increased live stock and livestock products receipts, since the latter reflect pure price rises to a greater degree than does crop income. The war period has brought more emphasis on crops in the district and has raised district income relative to the nation. In 1944 it is estimated that about 44 per cent of total cash income in the district came from crops and 56 per cent from livestock, in^ contrast to a 41-59 break in 1940. District cash in-| 1 come in 1944 is estimated at about 8 per cent of theV^j national total, in contrast to 7 per cent four years psjl earlier. Page 6 CASH FARM IN C O M E Cumulative for 11 months November (In thousands of dollars) 1944 1943 1942 305,361 1,0.78,335 623,999 296,875 318,479 656,659 284,796 3,564,504 $257,519 1,049,710 603,299 267,598 279,088 594,434 251,650. 3,303,298 $270,385 855,673; 491,428 191,99 5; 261,203 48i;??8210,338 2,762,820 1943 1944 $ $ 35,542 113,146 60,739 20,424 31,045 74,563 29,656 365,115 Arkansas. . . $ 59,434 Illinois................ . . 112,892 . . 59,530 Kentucky.......... . 20,559 Mississippi........ . . 70,571 . 77,401 Tennessee.......... . . 34,624 R E C E IPTS A N D S H IP M E N T S A T Receipts Dec., Nov., 1944 1944 Cattle and Calves.......... 114,972 189,393 H og s................................ 259,802 264,880 Horses and M ules........ j 1,704 2,429 Sheep............................... 49,976 62,787 Totals.......................... 426,454 519,489 N A T IO N A L STOCK Y A R D S Shipments Dec., Dec., Nov., Dec., 1943 1944 1944 1943 125,341 57,318 85,439 50,658 341,945 79,780 57,198 93,075 2,141 1,698 2,423 2,143 57,724 4,617 8,282 3,210. 527,151 143,413 153,342 149,086 W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N IT E D STATES Bureau of Labor Statistics Dec., Nov., Dec., Dec.,’ 44 comp, with (1926=100) 1944 1944 1943 N ov.,’44 Dec.,’43 All Commodities. . 104.7 Farm Products, . 125.5 F oods.............. . 105.5 Other 98.9 104.4 124.4 105.1 98.8 10.3.2 121.8 105.6 97.6 COST OF L IV IN G Dec. 15, Nov. 15, Dec. 15, 1944 1944 1943 Bureau of Labor Statistics (1935-39=100) United States. . . . . 127.0 Bureau of Labor Statistics (1935-39=100) Dec. 15, 1944 U. S. (51 cities) . . . St. Louis.......... , Little R ock . . . . , Louisville.......... Memphis.......... , 126.5 136.5 138.5 136.3 131.0 144.9 + + — + 1.5% 3.0 0.1 1.3 Dec. 15,’44 comp, with Nov. 15,’ 44 Dec. 15/43 124.4 COST OF F O O D Nov. 15, Dec. 15, 1944 1943 137.4 139.5 137.0 132.0 145.6 + 0.3% + 0.9 + 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.4% + 2.1% Dec. 15/44 comp, with Nov. 15/44 Dec. 15/43 137.1 139.3 135.5 134.0 144.5 + + + + + 0.7% 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 + + + — + 0.2% 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 C O A L P R O D U C T IO N (In thousands of tons) Dec.,’44 N ov.,’44 Dec./43 5,939 2,309 5,750 1,743 15,741 6,100 2,234 4,80.1 1,654 14,789 6,127 2,430 ■ 5,247 Other dist. states. 1,633 15,437 (Cost in thousands) + 3% + 5 9 — 6 - 0-9 + 9 + 9 —1 + 4 B U IL D IN G P E R M IT S New Construction Repairs, etc. Number Number Cost Cost 1944 1943 1944 1943 1944 1943 1944 1943 . . 12 Little R ock . . . . . 18 . . . 29 . . 233 . . 68 360 Dec. Totals. . . Nov. Totals. . . 454 (K .W .H . in thous.) Dec.,’44 comp, with N ov.,’44 Dec.,’43 10 7 34 279 33 363 256 $ 23 43 432 311 362 $ 1,171 828 9 56 131 352 19 567 291 37 81 17 110 137 382 789 126 45 20 256 98 545 803 $ 17 26 7 103 183 336 682 $ 59 11 23 139 66 298 566 C O N S U M P T IO N OF E L E C T R IC IT Y No. of Dec., Nov., Dec., December, 1944 Custom - 1944 1944 1943 compared with ers* K .W .H . K .W .H . K .W .H . Nov., 1944 Dec. 194 • Evansville. . . 40 8,120 8,227 Little R ock . . 35 2,982 3,0.55 Louisville . 82 17,497 16,726 Memphis. . . . 31 6,973 6,717 7,831 Pine Bluff. . . . . 19 8,197 93,081 93,098 St. Louis. . . . . 138 135,713 136,791 . 345 ^Selected industrial customers. fRevised. 10,416 2,878 17,194 6,597 7,342 95,692f 140,119f — — — + — -0 — 1% 2 4 4 4 1 __ 22% 4 3 6 + 7 + 3 — 3 + V A L U E C O N S T R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S L E T (In thousands _ _ ............. _ DeG.,’^4 eomp. with Nov.,’44 Dec.,*43 Dec.,’ 44 N ov,’44 Dec.,’43 of dollars) — 48% + 58% Total 8th Dist. . . $ 16,562 $ 32,067f $10,4611Source : F. W . Dodge Corporation. fRevised. D E P A R T M E N T STORES Stocks Net Sales on Hand Dec., 1944 12 mos.’ 44 Dec. 31/44 compared with to same comp, with N ov.,’44 Dec.,*43 period ’43 Dec. 31/43 Stock Turnover Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 1944 1943 Ft. Smith, Ark.. + 4 1 % + 27% + 18% — 9% 5.07 4.24 + 19 Little Rock, Ark. + 35 — 11 5.54 4.57 +11 Quincy, 111. . . . . + 28 +21 +21 Evansville, In d .. + 24 + 13 + 1 — 3 Louisville, K y .. . + 2 5 5*88 5.84 20 + 17 + 19 — 7 St. Louis, Mo. 4.97 4.51 + 15 +11 +29 + 28 Springfield, M o .. + 2 8 5.47 5.00 + 18 Memphis, Tenn.. + 36 + 16 + 4 — 14 4.98 4.44 + 15 *A11 other cities. + 35 + 10 — 6 5.21 4.72 + 12 8th F. R. D ist.. . + 2 6 + 17 *E1 Dorado, Fayetteville, Pine Bluff, A rk.; Alton, East St. Louis, Harrisburg, Mt. Vernon, 111.; Vincennes, I n d .; Danville, Hopkinsville, Mayfield, Paducah, K y .; Chillicothe, M o.; Jackson, Tenn. Trading days: December, 1944— 25; November, 1944— 25; December, 1943— 26. Outstanding orders of reporting stores at the end of December, 1944, were 41 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding December 1, 1944, collected during December, by cities: Instalment Excl. Instal. Instalment Excl. Instal. Accounts Accounts Accounts Accounts + Fort S m ith ... Little Rock . . L o u isv ille .... Memphis . . . . ..% 43 36 75 69% 63 59 66 Q u in cy ........ St. Louis. . . . Other cities. . 8th F.R. Dist. 78% 73 63 46% 47 38 49 68 Stocks, Unadjusted2.................... Stocks, Seasonally adjusted2 . . . . iDaily average 1935-39=100. ^Monthly average- 1923-25=100. ,333 .207 83 . 90 268 235 108 96 221 215 115 102 S P E C IA L T Y STORES Stocks on Hand Net Sales 12 mos.’ 44 Dec. 31,’ 44 ’ D«c., 1944 comp, with to same compared with Nov.,’44 Dec.,’ 43 period ’43 Dec. 31/43 277 172 88 95 Stock Turnover Men’s Furnishings + 4 3 % + 2 2 % + 3% — 11% 3.55 Boots and Shoes + 31 +25 +11 + 22 8.53 Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding December 1, 1944, collected during December: Men’s Furnishings.................. 63 % Boots and Shoes......................... 51% Trading days: December, 1944— 25; November, 1944— 25; December, 1943— 26. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STORES Net Sales Inventories Ratio of Dec. 31, 1944 Dec., 1944 Collections compared with compared with N ov./44 Dec./43 N ov.30/44 Dec.31/43 D ec./44 D ec./43 43% 47% + 31% — 9% St. Louis Area1 . + 10% + 2 3 % 44 48 + 21 — 9 + 31 St. Louis........ + 5 32 34 — 2 + 19 — 10 Louisville Area2. + 37 32 33 — 8 + 17 + 1 Louisville.. . .» + 3 8 42 36 + 15 + 28 Memphis. — . . . 26 28 * + 25 +27 Little R ock ........ * 42 29 +40 + 4 * ■ * * + 34 Fort Smith........ * — 5 * 33 39 + 31 Pine B luff.......... + 10 37 51 + 15 — 10 +68 Evansville----- -- + 4 0 37 40 — 7 — .10 +24 8th Dist.Totals3. + 15 but included in *Not shown separately due to insufficient coverage, Eighth District totals. 1Includes St. Louis, Missouri; East St. Louis, and Alton, Illinois. ^Includes Louisville, Kentucky; New Albany, and Jeffersonville, Indiana. 3In addition to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Arkansas; Henderson, Hopkinsville, Owensboro, Kentucky; Columbus, Greenwood, Starkvilfe, Mississippi; Hannibal, Missouri; and Dyersburg, Tennessee. PE R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N D ec./44 OF SALES N ov.,’ 44 Dec./43 Cash Sales....................................... •••• 28 % Credit S ales........................................... '2 Total S a le s ............ .........................1 0 0 24% 76 100 . 26% 74 100 L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A IL R O A D S AT ST. L O U IS First nine days ^ D e c ;/44 N oy./44 D ec./43 Jan./45 Jan.,’ 44 12 mos.’ 44 12 mos.?43 154,325' 157,366 155,864 41,780 41,929 Source: Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis. Data furnished by Bureau of Census, U. S. Dept, of Commerce. Stocks December, 1944 compared with Nov.,’44 Dec./43 — 9% — 12 , — 12 Hardware................................................ — 5 Plumbing Supplies................................. . — 14 Tobacco and its Products.................... . — 4 Miscellaneous........................................ . + 6 Total all lines**.................................... • + 1 * Preliminary. **Includes certain lines not listed above. Drugs and Chemicals............................ Electrical Supplies................................ Dec. 31, 1944 compared with Dec. 31, 1943 — 9% + 5 + 6 + 4 + 14 — 20. — 17 — 5 1 1 'i — i — 22 — 10 COM M ERCIAL F A IL U R E S IN E IG H T H F. R. D IS T R IC T Dec.,’44 Nov.,’44 Dec./43 1 Number.......................................... -0Liabilities...................................... >$ - 0 Source: Dun and Bradstreet. 1 $1,516,000 1, 0.00 CHANGES IN P R IN C IP A L ASSETS AN D L IA B IL IT IE S FE D E RA L R E SE RV E B A N K OF ST. L O U IS Change from Jan. 17, Dec. 13, Jan. 19, (In thousands of dollars) 1945 1944 1944 $ IN D E X E S OF D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E SALES A N D STOCKS 8th Federal Reserve District Dec., Nov., Oct., Dec., 1943 1944 1944 1944 Sales (daily average), Unadjusted1. W H O L E S A L IN G * Lines of Commodities Net Sales 1,903,859 1,816,895 30,900 806,006 U. S. securities. Total reserve Total deposii F. R. notes Industrial commitments under Sec. 13b.. + + 836,906 + 670,581 590,472 927,040 — ■ — + 55 8,70.0 1,021 9,721 + 25,890 +308,797 + 334,687 7,506 8,643 5,237 — 84,894 + 44,453 +202,026 -0- — 261 P R IN C IP A L R E SO U R CE A N D L IA B IL IT Y ITE M S OF R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R BAN KS Change from Jan. 17, Dec. 20, Jan. 19, (In thousands of dollars) 1945 1944 1944 Total loans and investments.................... $1,891,555 + 37,580 +327,609 Commercial, industrial, agricultural loans* 267,837 + 1,783 + 17,896 Loans to brokers and dealers in securities. 8,193 — 498 + 2,663 Other loans to purchase and carry securities 37,065 ■— 9,742 + 14,474 Real estate loans......................................... 65,135 — 258 + 1,712 Loans to banks........................................... 2,018 — 2,127 + 419 Other loans.................................................. 84,739 + 303 + 2 0 ,3 2 7 Total loans................................................. 464,987 *— 10,539 + 57,491 Treasury bills................................................ 45,820. — 12,483 — 31,051 Certificates of indebtedness...................... 313,798 + 5,607 + 51,056 Treasury notes............................................... 338,774 + 19,246 +193,541 U. S. Bonds................................................ 588,773 + 28,668 + 70,613 Obligations guaranteed by U. S. Govt.. 25,988 + 6,031 ■— 17,879 Other securities............................................. 113,415 + 1,050 + 3,838 Total investments..................................... 1,426,568 + 48,119 +270,118 Balances with domestic banks................ 120.,236 + 22 + 5,170 Demand deposits — adjusted**................ 1,020,391 + 25,678 + 65,859 Time deposits................................................ 276,677 + 7,163 + 53,826 U. S. Government deposits...................... 289,228 — 23,044 +128,868 Interbank deposits....................................... 629,312 + 28,761 + 71,117 Borrowings................................................... 32,400 + 13,900 + 27,400 *Includes open market paper. **Other than interbank and Government deposits, less cash items on hand or in process of collection. Above figures are for 24 member banks in St. Louis, Louisville, Mem phis, Little Rock and Evansville. Their resources comprise approximately 75% of the resources of all member banks in this district. (In thousands of dollars) D E B ITS T O IN D IV ID U A L A C C O U N TS December, November, December, D ec./44 comp, with 1944 1944 1943 N ov./44 D ec./43 El Dorado, A rk.. $ 12,150 Fort Smith, A rk.. 5,692 Helena, Ark........ 89,631 Little Rock, Ark. 21,777 Pine Bluff, Ark. . 14,514 Texarkana, Ark.-'; :. 16,409 Alton, 111.............. . . 83,513 E.St.L.-Nat.S.Y.jIll. 18,554 Quincy, 111................ Evansville, Ind........ . 115,229 Louisville, K y.......... . 435,042 23,313 Owensboro, K y........ 9,407 Paducah, K y............ 12,864 Greenville, Miss----Cape Girardeau, Mo, 6,210 Hannibal, M o.......... 18,543 Jefferson City, M o.. .. St. Louis, M o.......... 6,325 Sedalia, M o.............. 32,915 Springfield, Mo........ 11,0,95 Jackson, Tenn.. . . . . Memphis, Tenn........ . 331,621 Totals.................. 2,429,965 (Completed January 27, 1945) $ 9,686 25,990 5,877 77,269 21,215 12,176 14,390 84,554 17,612 96,70,7 351,620 19,938 8,539 12,387 5,105 4,964 18,196 1,105,418 5,980 33,623 10,903 307,213 2,249,362 $ 11,182 22,117 5,267 78,979 17,585 10,873 15,355 89,475 18,499 116,014 375,209 16,387 8,286 13,253 5,751 4,859 18,348 1,067,295 6,120 29,245 11,276 280,851 2,222,226 + 25% — 1 — 3 + 16 4" 3 + 19 + 14 — 1 + 5 + 19 +24 + 17 +10 + 4 +22 + 12 + 2 + 3 + 6 — 2 + 2 + 8 + 8 + 9% + 16 + 8 + 13 + 24 + 33 + 7 — 7 -0— 1 + 16 + 42 + 14 — 3 + 8 + 14 + 1 + 6 + 3 + 13 — 2 + 18 + 9 Page 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NATIONAL SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS BY B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF F E D E R A L R E SE R V E SYSTEM Federal Reserve indexes. Groups are expressed in terms of points in the total index. Monthlv figures, latest shown are for November, 1944. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS Federal Reserve indexes. are for November, 1944. Monthly figures, latest shown GOVERNMENT SECURITY HOLDINGS OF BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Excludes guaranteed securities. Data not available prior to February 8, 1939; certificates first reported on April 15, 1942. Wednesday figures, latest shown are for De cember 13, 1944. MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Demand deposits (adjusted) exclude TJ. S. Government and interbank deposits and collection items. Government securities include direct and guaranteed issues. Wednes day figures, latest shown are for December 13, 1944. Page 8 Output at factories and mines showed little change from October to November. Retail trade expanded further to new record levels. Industrial production — Industrial output in November and the early part of December was maintained at approximately the same level that had prevailed during the previous four months. Production of durable goods declined slightly in November, while output o f other manufactured goods, especially war supplies, increased somewhat further and mineral production was maintained in large volume. Output of critical war equipment was larger in November than in October but was still behind schedule, according to the W ar Production Board. Activity in the durable goods industries, particularly machinery, trans portation equipment, and lumber, continued to be limited in part by man power shortages. Employment in the transportation equipment industries has declined by about one-fifth during the past twelve months, but total output of aircraft, ships, and combat and motor vehicles has declined by a much smaller amount owing to greater efficiency. In most nondurable goods industries, production was somewhat greater in November than in the previous month. Activity at explosive and small-arms ammunition plants increased, reflecting enlarged war production schedules, and output in most other branches of the chemical industry also expanded, reaching levels above those of a year ago. Production in the petroleum refining and rubber industries, chiefly for war uses, increased somewhat in November. Output of manufactured foods showed less decline than is usual for this season and was as large as in November, 1943. In the textile industry, out put at woolen and worsted mills continued to advance in October from the reduced level of operations prevailing during the summer. Cotton consump tion in November was above October and rayon deliveries were at a new record level. Mineral production was maintained in November. Coal output was onefifth larger than in November, 1943 when operations were sharply reduced by a work stoppage. In the early part of December, however, coal pro duction was nearly 10 per cent less than in the same period last year. Distribution — Value o f department store sales in November was 14 per cent above the exceptionally high level last year, about the same year-toyear increase which prevailed in the previous four months. In the first half of December, sales were about 20 per cent larger than last year. All Federal Reserve districts have shown large increases over last year in pre-Christmas sales. Railroad freight carloadings, adjusted for seasonal changes, were main tained at a high level in November and the first two weeks o f December. Shipments o f most classes of freight, however, were not quite as great as the exceptionally large movement of freight during the same period o f last year. Com m odity prices— Changes in wholesale prices of agricultural and in dustrial products were mostly upward in November and the early part of December. Retail prices of foods and various other commodities were slightly higher in November than in October. During the past year there has been a slight upward tendency in prices of most commodities, both in wholesale and retail markets. Bank credit — Banking developments during the four weeks ended D e cember 13 were largely determined by the Sixth W ar Loan Drive. Govern ment deposits at weekly reporting banks in 101 cities increased by approxi mately 8 billion dollars while adjusted demand deposits o f individuals and business were drawn down about 2.6 billions in payment for securities pur chased. The reporting banks added 3.7 billion dollars to their holdings of Governments securities and increased their loans by 1.7 billion. As a result of the transfer of deposits of individuals and businesses to war loan accounts, reserves required by member banks declined by about 700 million dollars from the beginning of the Drive through mid-December. In addition, reserve funds were supplied to the banking system through the purchase by the Federal Reserve Banks of 640 million dollars of Govern ment securities. These additional reserves were used in part to reduce member bank borrowings at the Reserve Banks, which had risen to nearly 600 million dollars in the latter part of November, and to meet the demand for currency. This demand, though slackened somewhat by the W ar Loan Drive, amounted to 450 million dollars for the four weeks ended December 13. Excess reserves increased by 300 million dollars, principally at country banks.
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