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Monthly Review FE B R U A R Y 1, 1946 1945 in Review For the Eighth District, 1945 was a year of continued high business activity. Income for the year as a whole was about as large as in 1944. During the first part of the year, activity ran at an all-time high level, but the sudden end of war brought a sharp drop in industrial output. Even in the latter part of 1945, however, income ran more than twice as high as in prewar years. As the year ended, the district economy was well into the transition period between war and peace and had excellent prospects for the future. So far the transition period has been relatively smooth with nothing like the severe dislocations that were forecast. For the most part, district plant needed little physical reconversion to permit peacetime output, and most of what was needed was completed by year end. Such transition period problems as remain have to do largely with factors other than retooling production lines. Some of the problems, notably those in connec tion with obtaining materials, scheduling produc tion, increasing efficiency and re-establishing distributive organizations, should be resolved quickly by the ingenuity of management. Others involve such questions as general wage increases and cost-price relationships and require national policy decisions before they can be solved. Assuming that the problems of the transition period will be settled with reasonable promptness and that they will not operate to hold back produc tion and reduce income for more than a short period, the Eighth District's major problem in the coming years is how to hold and consolidate its war time income gains. Income in this district during the war years rose substantially more percentagewise than did that for the nation as a whole. Since relatively more of the district income increase was due to war activity, however, the district now is faced with the problem of providing other income to balance the probable loss of some of that engendered by the war. Military payrolls alone accounted for a substantial share of district income increases, particularly in the southern portions of the region where even relatively low pay for mili tary service plus dependency benefits was better than average income received from civilian activity. Rising farm income also was responsible for a large part of the district income increase over the war years. The long-run outlook for the district is favorable. Surveys of future prospects have indicated that employment will be substantially higher after full reconversion than before the war, perhaps as much as 25 per cent more. Areas formerly dominated completely by agriculture are seeking to expand projects to balance such activity with industry and thus add to income. The movement to decentralize plant, actually retarded by the war, is expected to quicken and the district should be a net gainer in this process. EM PLOYM ENT For the remainder of the transition period the employment situation, while not as favorable as in the long-run outlook, appears brighter than in prewar years. In 1946 all industry is expected to employ more workers than in the immediate prewar period, although employment in Government work and manufacturing will be lower than at the war time peak. The largest gains over current employ ment are anticipated in construction, trad6, and service, with some rise from present lows in indus trial lines. Unemployment, however, is also expected to rise, at least until midyear when the number of new jobs available should exceed the number of new entrants into the labor market. The fact that present official estimates of unem ployment are much lower than was anticipated reflects mainly three factors: more rapid absorption of displaced war workers by other industry than was believed possible; heavy withdrawals from the labor market, many of them probably temporary for vacation or migration back to former residence; and the slowness of the mass of veterans in enter ing the civilian labor market. Unemployment might be even lower if present difficulties in match ing workers and jobs did not exist. There are shortages in some clerical and skilled occupations but most job openings are for relatively unskilled workers and here comparatively low wage rates are the chief deterrent to placement. During most of 1945 the labor market was in a state of constant flux with much heavier than normal movements into and out of it. This was particularly true after V-J Day when large-scale war plant shutdowns plus equally large military discharges caused the employment picture to change radically. The low point in postwar employment was reached in September, 1945, when war production MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE EIGHTH DISTRICT. 1940 TO 1945 M O N T H L Y IN D E X , 1937 -1 0 0 layoffs were practically completed but reconversion and the shift to nonmanufacturing lines had only begun. Even at that time, in the five major cities in this district total employment was 13 per cent and manufacturing employment 30 per cent higher than in 1940. At the lowest post-V-J Day level, employment in Memphis and St. Louis was 14 per cent higher, in Louisville and Little Rock 11 per cent higher, and in Evansville 6 per cent higher than in 1940. During the war years Evansville had the largest proportionate increase in employ ment. When full postwar employment is reached, total employment in these cities is expected to be one-third and manufacturing employment one-half higher than in 1940. IN D U S T R Y Any meaningful review of district industrial activity in 1945 necessarily involves a backward glance at the entire war period and the immediate prewar era. The year 1945 was one in which sharply divergent trends were evident from its beginning to its close. In one sense the first eight months were merely a continuation of the war period in which the economy was dominated by military requirements. Even in this period, how ever, certain lines of war output increased sharply while others declined from peaks reached much earlier in the war program. Some production of civilian durable goods was coming from district factories and there was a very high level of civilian nondurable goods production. The last four months of the year were char acterized by even more sharply divergent trends. By and large war production stopped. Civilian production of nondurables continued at a high level, but output of durables did not increase to any marked degree due partly to reconversion diffi culties but mostly to lack of materials and labor problems, the latter involving both difficulties in securing workers and strikes. Industrial output in the district in the last four months was sharply lower than in the first eight months, although by the close of the year the production curve had turned upward from its transition period low. For 1946 production should be higher than in the latter part of 1945 but off appreciably from the peak reached prior to V -E Day. Manufacturing — Production of manufactured goods in the Eighth District during 1945 was less than in 1944. Value of output is estimated at $6.7 billion in contrast to $7.7 billion in 1944 and $7.1 billion in 1943. W ith these two exceptions, however, value of production in 1945 was higher than in any other previous year. In 1939, the last INDUSTRIAL POWER CONSUMPTION. EIGHTH DISTRICT INDEX. 1939 MONTHLY AVERAGE • 100 Percent Percent peacetime year, output was valued at $2.4 billion. In terms of physical output, adjusted for price changes, the volume of manufactured goods turned out in this district in 1945* was about 15 per cent less than in 1944, but well over twice that of 1939. Manufacturing activity in the district during the first half of the year was higher than in 1944 reach ing a peak in. May, but the pronounced decline that took place after the German surrender caused the level for the year as a whole to be lower than in 1944. At peak the rate of physical volume of production in district factories was more than three times as large as in 1939. By the close of the year, output was at a rate slightly less than double that of 1939 and about 35 per cent less than in 1944. W ar Facilities— Relatively little in the form of new industrial facilities was added to Eighth District war plant in 1945. Most of the war con struction program in this district was completed by mid-1943. There was, however, some new war plant building in the early part of 1945, most of it earmarked for production of rocket ammunition. One problem that faces the district in the coming year concerns disposal of war plant. During the entire war program the district received new facility awards of all types totaling about $2.2 billion in cost. About 90 per cent of this amount was received by the close of 1944. Slightly more than $1.6 billion in cost was for new industrial facilities. The balance, about $550 million, was for new military facilities. Expenditures on the new industrial plant were divided about equally on structure and equipment. About 58 per cent of the total was for munitions plant; another 25 per cent for other durables1 pro duction, mostly metal working industry; and the balance for nondurables factories, mostly the warsupporting lines of chemicals, petroleum and rubber products. Government ownership of district war plant is heavy, practically all munitions establish ments, more than three-fourths of the metal work ing plants and three-fifths of the chemical, petroleum and rubber factories being so owned. Apparently not much of the facilities born during the war years will be useful for peacetime produc tion. For the most part, district munitions plants that are up for disposal are attracting no bidders. Some are being kept in standby condition and some have been converted to other Government use, the most notable example being the huge St. Louis Ordnance plant which is being turned into an army records center. Much of the metal working plant is in similar case, although the large aluminaaluminum plants in Arkansas were leased at year end and presumably will be put to peacetime use in the near future. Munitions Production— Output of munitions in the district in 1945 was much smaller than in 1944 since most war production stopped after V-J Day. Actually output of war goods reached its peak in this district late in 1943, and while production spurted again in the first part of 1945, it never approached the peak level. Some munitions pro duction is still going on, particularly in rockets and some aircraft, but it is only a fraction of the volume produced at peak. During the war years the district received some $6.2 billion in prime war contracts (those of more than $50,000 each, excluding food processing). In addition, district manufacturers obtained a sub stantial volume of subcontracts both from district prime contractors and those outside the district. While some district prime contractors placed sub contracts with firms outside the district, the flow of work into the region far surpassed the flow outside so that the district was a net gainer in subcontract work. About 75 or 80 per cent of all war orders received were completed and district war output for the period June, 1940, to V-J Day is estimated at slightly more than $7 billion. Probably an equal amount of other production, a substantial volume of which was food products, should also be classed as war orders. This means that about 45 per cent of district production went for direct or indirect war purposes. This proportion, of course, was much larger in the latter stages of the war program than in the earlier years. Page 3 Other Production— In addition to the decline in munitions output, most of the important district manufacturing industries in 1945 operated some what below the level of 1944. Virtually all of the decrease was concentrated in the last part of the year. In steel, the production rate a t . the close of 1945 was about 15 per cent below that of the beginning of the year. The operating rate of ingotproducing furnaces in this district averaged 73 per cent of capacity in 1945 as against 79 per cent in 1944 and 99 per cent in 1943. From January through May, 1945, the operating rate averaged almost 80 per cent, but from August through December was about 67 per cent of capacity. Total production of steel in 1945 in this district was substantially in excess of that in 1939 and 1940. The capacity for steel production in this district, both for ingots and castings, was increased considerably during the war years. While current demand for steel is very high and orders are backlogged far into 1946, the increased productive capacity is not being used primarily because of two factors: steel plants are still experiencing contination of the wartime difficulty of securing sufficient workers, and most steel producers feel that present cost-price relationships are too unsatisfactory to utilize all capacity, much of which is high cost. The important whiskey-producing industry, most of which in this district is located in Kentucky, operated in 1945 at a rate far below that of the previous war years. In October, 1942, distilleries ceased making whiskey and thereafter, with the exception of three month-long holidays, produced industrial alcohol or high wines which were further processed into industrial alcohol. W ith the end of the war, distilleries resumed whiskey production but their operations during the latter part of 1945 were sharply curtailed because of difficulties in securing grain for distillation. Current production is substantially less than in the war years. It is, however, approximating the 1941 rate and is higher than in the prewar years of 1939 and 1940. For the coming year, if adequate supplies of raw mate rials can be obtained, whiskey distilleries are expected to operate at close to capacity in view of the very short supply of whiskey and the high level of demand. Production of shoes in Eighth District factories in 1945 totaled about 84 million pairs, approxi mately the same amount as was produced in 1944 and more than was produced in any other previous year with the exception of 1941 when output totaled slightly more than 85 million pairs. In 1939, the district shoe industry produced less than 70 million Page 4 pairs. The basic difficulties which confronted the shoe industry during the war period, labor and material shortages, have been appreciably eased since the war ended. In view of the exceptionally strong demand, 1946 output is expected to be higher than in 1945 and perhaps larger than in 1941. The district shoe industry is currently in process of further decentralization with new shoe factories under construction or projected in various smaller towns and cities throughout the district. Activity in meat packing plants in 1945 was sharply lower in terms of animal units slaughtered than in 1944. This reflects primarily the substan tial decrease in the pig crop. For example, Federally inspected slaughter of pigs at St. Louis in 1945 totaled 2.6 million head as compared with 4.8 million head in 1944. Meat packing activity last year, however, was considerably greater than in the prewar years and should at least hold its own for the coming year. Among other important district industries, 1945 output of machinery, both electrical and non-elec trical, was in much greater volume than in the prewar period, although the latter type especially was off substantially from the war peak. Chemicals production apparently remained about the same as in 1944. Apparel output, while large, fell far below the quantity necessary to meet demand. Lumber production generally ran below 1944 with the decline most marked after V-J Day. Output of both southern hardwood and pine in 1945 is esti mated as smaller than in any year since 1939. Lumber remains in critically short supply in view of the large demand for new construction. Mining— Production of coal at Eighth District mines in 1945 was somewhat below that of 1944, but was greater than in any other year since war began. Output in 1945 totaled 183 million tons in contrast to 186 million tons in 1944 and 125 million tons in 1939. Production was curtailed somewhat by labor unrest, particularly in the last part of 1945. Other mining activity in the district in 1945 was below both 1944 and 1943. W ith the easing of the metal supply situation, output of both lead and zinc decreased somewhat while production of bauxite fell off very sharply from the wartime peak level. Fluorspar and manganese production also ran behind the previous year. Production of all these metals, however, was substantially higher than in the prewar period. For most of 1945, production of petroleum at Eighth District oil fields was Less than in 1944 with the decline from the comparable period of a year earlier somewhat sharper after V-J Day than before. Crude petroleum output in this district has decreased every year since 1940, reflecting mostly controlled operations under the quota system. Exploratory activity in 1945 was considerably below 1944, much of the decline being attributable to unfavorable weather for new drilling operations. The number of new wells drilled in 1945 in all district fields totaled 2,770, as compared with 3,200 in 1944. Most of the decline reflects decreased activity in Kentucky and Illinois fields. Construction— Building activity in the Eighth District in 1945 was considerably higher than in 1944, although far below the wartime construction peak. F. W . Dodge reports indicates $330 million in new construction contracts of all types let in the district in 1945. Contracts let in 1944 totaled $140 million and in 1942 were $742 million. It should be stressed that the Dodge figures represent merely contracts let and not work put in place. In 1945, in particular, the difference between work contracted for and that put in place was substantial. Many of the projects started were expected to take some time to complete. Also a large share of the new contracts were placed at the close of the year with actual work to be performed mostly in 1946. During 1946 construction activity in the district is expected to increase considerably. Construction work here picked up after V-J Day, although the gain was somewhat less than anticipated due to a continuation of materials scarcity and lack of suffi cient labor. Abandonment of controls in the fall of 1945 resulted in most materials and labor going into nonresidential construction. Recent moves attempt to insure that at least half of the avail able materials will be utilized for new dwelling accommodations. Most of the new construction in 1945 was non residential, only $29 million or 9 per cent of the total contracts let going for new dwelling accommo dations. Residential construction has been small in this district for the past three years, being especially low in 1944 with less than $11 million in new resi dential contracts let. This district, in common with the rest of the country, is currently suffering from an extremely severe housing shortage. Practically every goodsized city in the United States has a very low vacancy rate at the present time, but the major district cities seem to be in worse shape than most other urban centers. During the last 25 years, residential building in the major district cities was generally smaller relative to population than the national average. In St. Louis, for example, during the 1920’s the average amount of dwelling units built per 10,000 families was almost one-fifth less than the average for all urban areas in its size class. In the 1930’s and during the defense period, build ing in St. Louis approximated the national average rate, but in the last three years it has run well below it. TRADE CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT AWARDS, EIGHTH DISTRICT 1927 THROUGH 1945 400 1927 SOURCE* 1933 F. W. Dodge Corporation Despite decreased income and employment during the latter part of the year, consumer expenditures reached new high levels in 1945. Much of the increase in dollar volume of retail sales was due to price advances. While direct price increases in 1945 were smaller than in 1944, they alone were responsible for about half of the total dollar increase in sales. Actual consumer preference for more expensive goods and the relatively small amount of lower-priced products in the market resulted in indirect price rises which also accounted for a substantial share of the dollar sales gain. Increases in consumer expenditures generally follow closely increases in income and thus retail sales curves tend to parallel income curves. During the war years this has not been true and retail sales, influenced by price controls, short supplies, and rationing, have risen relatively less than income. At the same time regional and area income gains which were larger than average have usually Page 5 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES IN SELECTED CITIES TO TA L ANNUAL S A L E S -1 9 4 5 ,1 9 4 4 AND 1939 Millions of Dollars SA IN T LOUIS, MO. _ _______ WX><X>QQQQ<XXX>QQ< MEMPHIS. TE N N . E S S S S c a LO U IS VILLE, KY. rS S S S S T L IT T L E ROCK, ARK 6000001 While purchasing of all types of goods at depart ment stores was heavy in 1945, sales of women’s and men’s clothing and housefurnishings registered larger increases than those of other items. Late in the year the holiday shopping season brought great increases in sales of luxury goods-—furs, sil verware, jewelry, and the like. In the same period some durables began to make their appearance and their sales gains over the wartime lows of the previous year were substantial. For the year as a whole, however, such items accounted for not much more than their usual share of sales. SPRINGFIELD. MO. EVA N S V ILLE. IND. FO RT S M ITH. ARK QU IN CY. IL L 0 50 100 been reflected in better than average sales increases even though the latter were not as large as might have been expected under more normal conditions. As the war period advanced in time, regional differences in income tended to lessen. This condi tion reflected the gradual diffusion throughout the economy of wartime income gains, originally con centrated in war production centers, areas with large military or other Government payrolls, and agricultural sections. As income flow became more widely diffused, cumulative gains in retail sales of different regions tended to cluster more closely around the average. The accompanying chart illustrates this situation in the Eighth District. Comparison of 1944 sales volume with 1939 gives a sharper picture of area differences than comparison of 1945 with the pre war year. At the same time, however, it is appar ent that some differences still exist among the cities shown and in general the larger the sales increase (percentagewise) the larger was the war time income increase. In this district Evansville is the only important exception to this generaliza tion. At department stores in the Eighth District the volume of trade in 1945 was about $310 million, 13 per cent more than in 1944 and slightly more than double that of 1939. Increases over compar able months of 1944 were especially large in the first and last quarters of the year. There were, however, Page 6 no pronounced buying waves during 1945 such as characterized most other war years, despite an increasing supply of goods and release of some items from ration lists. The return of men from military service strongly increased demand for men’s clothing and furnish ings in 1945. Since separations from service were particularly heavy after V-J Day, sales of men’s wear in the last quarter were proportionately larger than in other quarters of 1945. The very large increases in sales of men’s apparel would probably have been even more striking had supply of goods been more adequate. Sales gains over 1944 at men’s apparel stores generally ran below those of men’s departments at department stores. In contrast to this situation, women’s apparel stores showed relatively larger sales increases over 1944 than did comparable sections at department stores. The gains at both types of store reflect the same factors, however; price rises, scarcity of lower-priced lines, and lack of sufficient supplies of piece goods for home dressmaking. Taking price increases into account, it is doubtful whether unit volume of goods sold in 1945 was appreciably larger than in 1944. Sales of housefurnishings at department stores boomed in 1945 with larger supplies of goods avail able. At regular furniture stores sales gains were somewhat smaller than at department stores. Furniture stores during the war years added varied lines of goods in an effort to maintain sales volume in the face of shrinking furniture supplies. They are now much more comparable to housefurnish ings departments of department stores than in prewar years. The erratic movement of inventories under present peacetime conditions is not much different from that of the war period. Manufacturers have yet to attain sufficient production to enable retailers to build adequate inventories. Volume of out standing orders is currently about one-fourth more than a year ago, with most stores taking deliveries when they can get them. Generally speaking, the experience of retail lines reporting to this bank reflects the strain of con tinued heavy sales volume on inventories. Depart ment store and furniture store stocks at the close of 1945 were slightly larger in dollar volume than a year earlier. Men’s apparel stores evidently have had greater difficulty in maintaining stocks than the men’s wear departments in department stores. Year-end stocks at men’s apparel stores were 48 per cent less than in December, 1944, in contrast to a drop of only 37 per cent at men’s wear sec tions in department stores. Conversely, less diffi culty has been encountered by women’s apparel stores than women’s wear divisions of department stores. The specialty store stocks at the end of 1945 were about equal in dollar volume to a year earlier, while women’s apparel divisions in depart ment stores were somewhat less. The ratio of cash sales to credit sales changed but little during 1945 with continued consumer credit regulation and consumer preference for cash buying. At department stores in 1945 about twothirds of charge account and one-third of instalment account receivables were collected in the month following purchase. B A N K IN G A N D F IN A N C E In the field of banking, developments throughout 1945 represent merely a continuation of the war time situation. In contrast to many other activities, the end of war last August brought no change in Treasury financing policy. This factor was the dominant influence on banking throughout the war years. The Victory Loan came at the close of the year, some three months after actual cessation of hostilities. in previous years, every effort was made to borrow as much as possible from nonbank sources, but despite this effort commercial banks added about $10 billion to their Government security holdings. As a result, deposits continued to rise in 1945. Between December, 1941 and 1945, deposits of the commercial banking system increased from $71 billion to $144 billion. Increases were strikingly different among the various Federal Reserve dis tricts and in different size groups of banks. A major part of the increase in national income during the war period was due to war manufacturing and to increases in agricultural income, Federal civilian payrolls and military payments. Since Federal expenditures for these items in relation to Treasury receipts from taxation and borrowing varied con siderably among the different districts, deposit changes varied also. Very large deposit increases occurred in the Dallas, Atlanta, San Francisco, Kansas City and Minneapolis districts. Gains in the Richmond, Chicago and St. Louis districts were somewhat smaller but above average also. The New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Cleveland dis tricts had relatively small increases in deposits. Both demand and time deposits have increased more in rural banks than in urban institutions. The greater increase in the country banks reflects largely the great rise in agricultural income accom panied by relatively smaller expenditures (plus tax payments and Government security purchases) by farmers than by urban residents. In the Eighth District, total deposits of report ing member banks rose $342 million or about 15 ESTIMATED DEPOSITS ANO CURRENCY- EIGHTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT In view of the tremendous response to the V ic tory Loan, it seems unlikely that new Treasury requirements for 1946 will be particularly heavy even though refunding operations will be. These, however, unless they result in substantial shifts of holdings from nonbank investors to banks will have relatively little effect on the banking system from the standpoint of deposit growth and invest ment and loan policy. Consequently, 1945 may be taken as the probable end of the second era of war finance in the United States in this century. During the past year, as in the other war years, taxation did not yield enough revenue to meet Federal expenditures and it was necessary for the Treasury to continue to borrow large sums. As Page 7 per cent in 1945. As compared with December, 1941, total deposits of these banks at the close of 1945 were up 82 per cent. Continuing wartime experience, the smaller banks— those in rural sections and small cities— experienced greater deposit growth than did the larger urban institutions. In towns of less than 15,000 population demand deposits increased 31 per cent in contrast to the rise of only 15 per cent in the major cities. Among the latter areas, banks in St. Louis, Louisville, and Memphis registered gains about equal to the five-city average, Little Rock demand deposits rose 19 per cent, and those in Evansville dropped 7 per cent. The latter city has been affected much more adversely by recon version problems than other metropolitan areas in this district. Time deposit growth in the smaller towns in 1945 was about 30 per cent as compared with a 24 per cent gain in the large cities. Here again Evansville ran behind the urban area average with an increase of only 17 per cent, while Memphis, Louisville, and Little Rock banks showed better than average gains. LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AT EIGHTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS Billions of Dollars 4 Billions of. Dollars 4 1941 1944 1943 1942 1945 long-term interest rate and in the bond market. The reporting member banks added $187 million to their holdings of Government securities in 1945, an increase of approximately 15 per cent. The composition of the portfolios changed appreciably. Treasury certificates decreased 16 per cent and bonds increased nearly 43 per cent as banks shifted from low yielding short-term issues to the higher rate long-term issues. This shift to bonds appar ently reflects general belief in the stability of the Loans at reporting member banks rose $130 mil lion or 28 per cent in the past year. An important part of this increase was in loans on Government securities which were unusually large at the year end due to the Victory Loan drive. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans increased $76 mil lion during the year, some rise occurring in each of the major cities. Much of the gain, however, was concentrated in Memphis where loans rose $37 million and in St. Louis where they gained $27 million. Real estate loans rose very slightly in 1945 indicating that bank credit was not being used in this district to finance a real estate boom such as occurred after W orld War I. Consumer A G R IC U L T U R E P R IC E S CASH F A R M IN C O M E November UlUU5aiiU5 dollars) 1944 1945 ansas ..............$ 53,999 lois ................. 119,471 ian& ................ 68,640 itucky ...._____ 17,369 sissippi ______ 57,827 souri ..... .......... 70,446 nessee ........... 33,370 $ 59,434 112,892 59,530 20,559 70,571 77,401 34,624 $ 287,787 1,071,523 623,633 340,787 302,139 634,079 280,669 $ 305,361 1,078,335 623,999 296,875 318,479 656,659 284,796 $ 257,519 1,049,710 603,299 267,598 279,088 594,434 251,650 Totals ........... 421,122 435,011 3,540,617 3,564,504 3,303,298 C E IPTS A N D 1945 Cumulative for 11 months 1944 1943 S H IP M E N T S A T N A T IO N A L STOCK YAR D S Shipments Receipts Dec., 1945 Nov., 1945 Dec., 1944 T>ec., 1945 Nov., 1945 Dec., 1944 tie and Calves...111,116 .228,553 ■ses and Mules... 3,123 ep ..................... . 67,645 181,093 213,788 3,423 74,880 134,972 259,862 1,704 49,976 57,577 80,199 3,363 15,206 90,067 72,791 3,263 12,650 57,318 79,780 1,698 4,617 otals .......... .......410,437 473,184 446,454 156,345 178,771 143,413 Page 8 W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N IT E D STATE S Bureau of Labor Dec., Nov., Dec., Dec., ’ 45 comp, with Statistics 1945 1945 1944 Nov., ’45 Dec., ’44 (1926=100) 107.1 106.8 104.7 All Commodities.. 4- 0.3% 4- 2.3% 131.1 Farm Products ___ 131.5 125.5 4- 0.3 4- 4.8 108.6 107.9 Foods ........... .... 105.5 4 - 0.6 4- 2.9 Other ............... 100.5 100.2 + 0.3 98.9 4- 1.6 COST Bureau of Labor Statistics (1935-39 = 100) St. Louis...... Memphis ..... *Not available. Nov. 15, 1945 129.2 .... 126.7 * OF Oct. 15, 1945 128.9 126.9 * L IV IN G Sept. 15, Nov. 15, ’ 45 comp, with 1942 Oct. 15, '45 Sept. 15, ’ 42 117.8 116.6 119.3 + 0.2% — 0.2 4* 9.7% 4 - 8.7 --- COST O F FO O D Bureau of Labor Nov. 15, Statistics 1945 (1935-39 = 100) 140.1 U. S. (51 cities).. St. Louis........ . .... 141.4 Little R ock---- , 138.8 ... 134.2 .... 148.8 * Revised. Oct. 15, Sept. 15, Nov. 15, '45 com p. with 1942 Oct. 15, ’ 45 Sept. 15, *42 1945 139.3 141.4 138.3* 133.5* 148.6 126.6 126.7 129.2 124.2 129.7 4 -0.6% -0+ 0 .4 4-0.5 4 -0.1 4-10.7% + 11.6 + 7.4 + 8.1 + 14.7 loans of 22 reporting banks in the district were up about $4 million, or about 44 per cent, con tinuing the increase which began after the *war time low was reached in the early part of 1944. The outlook for 1946 is for relatively little change in the general pattern of banking in this district. As noted earlier the volume of new Treasury financing probably will be much smaller than in the war years which means that, unless nonbank investors shift some of their holdings to banks, bank investments in Governments will show small increase. There is also little indication that bank loans will rise appreciably. Security loans should decline if Treasury financing is on a smaller scale. Business and agricultural loans may increase somewhat, but many businesses and farmers have large liquid asset holdings and may prefer to use these funds rather than borrow. The outlook for consumer credit is more favorable but depends largely upon the volume of durable goods produced this year, and upon whether purchasers of such goods prefer to buy them out of anticipated income or with savings. Deposit changes for the nation as a whole should be relatively small. Deposit growth during the war period was based largely on bank purchases of Government securities. The major factor retard ing deposit growth was the outflow of money in circulation, supplemented to some extent by a decline in the gold stock. While these factors are expected to operate less strongly in 1946 and perhaps even to become neutral, prospects are slight IN D U S T R Y L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A IL R O A D S A T ST. L O U IS First nine days Dec.,*45 N ov.,*45 Dec.,’44 Jan.,’ 46 Jan.,’ 45 12 mos.’45 12 m os/44 109,245 117,257 154,325 31,739 41,780 1,711,510 1,903,880* Source: Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis. ^Revised. C O A L P R O D U C T IO N (In thousands Dec., ’45 comp. with Dec., '45 Nov., *45 Dec., *44 of tons) N ov., '45 Dec.,,*44 6,056 2,229 5,711 1,509 Totals .............. .. 15,505 6,024 2,200 5,909 1,618 15,751 6,127 2,430 5,247 1,633 15,437 Even with the national deposit level relatively stable there are possibilities of shifts between regions, but in 1946 these should be at a minimum. As far as this district is concerned there seems to be little likelihood of major deposit shifts either within the district or from it to other regions. A G R IC U L T U R E Total farm production in the Eighth District in 1945 was at near record levels despite obstacles of unfavorable weather and short supplies of labor, fertilizer, new machinery and replacement parts. Pasture and hay production were at record levels this year. The district wheat and rice crops some what exceeded those of 1944. Tobacco production was only slightly under the bumper output of the previous year. The district corn crop, while slightly less than the 1942-44 crops, exceeded the prewar average production. Cotton suffered more than any crop in the district, with the 1945 harvest being ap proximately one-third less than 1944 production in physical volume and in many areas the quality of the crop being low. The spring season was unusually wet. Severe floods covered much of the rich bottomlands of the district’s major river systems. Long and heavy rains retarded planting in the upland areas. Some breaks in the wet weather during the late spring and early summer, however, enabled district farmers to plant crops, which they did with amazing rapidity. D E B IT S T O D E P O S I T A C C O U N T S C O N SU M P T IO N O F E L E C T R IC IT Y No. of Dec., Nov., Dec., Dec., 1945 (K .W .H . Custom1945 1945 1944 compared with inthous.) ers* K .W .H . K .W .H . K .W .H . Nov., ’ 45 Dec., *44 5,248 4,693 8,199 4-12% — 36% Evansville ..... 40 Little R ock..... 34 3,383 3,590 2,848 — 6 +19 Louisville ____ 82 15,634 14,971 16,726 + 4 — 7 Memphis ....... 31 5,489 5,492 6,973 - 0 — 21 Pine Bluff....... 19 1,393 2,008 7,831 — 31 — 82 St. Louis...... . 127 47,71157,514 71,592 — 17 — 33 T o ta ls ____ 333 78,858 88,268 114,169 — 11 — 31 *Selected industrial customers. Illinois ................... Indiana .................. Kentucky .............. .. Other Dist. States... for them to reverse sharply enough to lead to appre ciable deposit growth. -f + — — 1% 1 3 7 — 2 ___ ___ 4- 1% 8 9 8 (In thousands of dollars) Dec., 1945 Nov., 1945 Dec., 1944 13,168 $ 11,415 $ 12,150 El Dorado, Ark...... $ 33,448 25,761 41,806 Fort Smith. Ark.... 5,692 7,265 7,941 Helena, Ark....... ...... 93,194 92,587 89,631 Little Rock, Ark.... 30,315 21,777 24,126 Pine Bluff, Ark----14,514 Texarkana, Ark.-Tex. 9,662 9,110 18,792 15,134 16,409 Alton, 111................... E.St.L.-Nat.S.Y.,Ill. 83,513 74,604 83,483 21,433 18,554 20,515 Quincy, 111............... 115,229 71,860 78,122 Evansville, Ind....... 435,042 358,501 Louisville, K y....... 443,941 23,313 23,778 21,878 Owensboro, K y....... 9,648 9,407 10,860 Paducah, K y ............ 14,492 12,864 12,991 Greenville, Miss....... 6,337 6,210 7,004 Cape Girardeau, Mo. 5,547 5,395 5,859 Hannibal, Mo.......... 23,882 18,543 25,968 Tefferson City. Mo. St. Louis. M o.... 1,285,971 1,077,348 1,133,853 6,325 7,172 7,573 Sedalia, M o......... .— 32,915 38,578 36,765 Springfield, M o...... 14,763 11,095 13,993 Jackson, Tenn. ___ 331,621 376,817 Memphis, Tenn....... 376,699 Totals ................... 2,632,656 2,331,537 2,429,965 D ec.,’45 comp, with N ov.,’ 45 Dec.,*44 +15% -4-25 — 9 H- 1 — 20 4- 6 +24 — 11 _ 4 + 9 +24 + 9 +13 — 10 +11 + 9 + 9 +19 + 6 — 5 — 5 -0- + 8% +62 +28 + 4 + 11 — 33 +15 — 11 + 11 — 32 + 2 + 2 +15 + 1 +13 + 6 + 40 +13 +20 +12 +26 +14 +13 + s 0- Page 9 R E T A IL T R A D E D E P A R T M E N T STORES Stocks on Hand Net Sales Stock Turnover Dec., ’ 45 12 mos. ’ 45 Dec. 31, ’45 Jan. 1, to compared with to same comp, with Dec. 31, Nov. ’ 45 Dec., ’ 44 period ’44 Dec. 31/44 1945 1944 — 8% 5.38 5.04 ‘t. Smith, Ark... -f-35% + 12% + 6% — 5 6.22 5.51 +13 -ittle Rock Ark. + 3 5 + 7 +14 6.44 5.79 fuincy, I I I __...... 4-30 +14 +16 ..... ..... — 1 ivansville, In d .- 4-23 + 1 "6.59 5.78 fOuisville, Ky.__ 4-32 +13 +12 + 4 +14 5.26 4.97 t. Louis Area1- 4-15 + 10 + 7 +10 +14 5.26 4.97 t Louis, M o.— 4-14 + 7 ..... J. St. Louis, 111. 4-24 + 5 *4” l — 29 5.95 4 '.79 +19 +19 pringfield, M o... 4-38 — 6 5.92 5.47 + 8 +12 femphis, Tenn___ j-30 5.06 -0+13 5.38 All other cities., + 3 1 +11 +13 +10 5.60 5.20 th F. R. District + 2 3 + 2 * El Dorado, Fayetteville, Pine Bluff, A rk .; Alton, Harrisburg, acksonville, Mt. Vernon, 111.; New Albany, Vincennes, In d .; Danville, lopkinsville, Mayfield, Paducah, K y .; Chillicothe, M o .; and Jackson, ’enn. l Includes St. Louis, Mo., East St. Louis and Belleville, 111. Trading days: Dec., 1945— 25; Nov., 1945— 25; Dec., 1944— 25. Outstanding orders of reporting stores at the end of December, 1945, rere 25 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding December 1, 945, collected during December, by cities: Instalment Excl. Instal. Accounts Accounts ‘o r t - S m i t h ,ittle R o c k .... ,ouisville ........ femphis ....... ....% 35 34 67 (57% 64 59 63 Instalment Excl. Instal. Accounts Accounts Quincy ______ St. Louis......... Other cities-.... 8th F.R. Dist. 49% 45 52 46 78% 71 67 67 IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T STO R E SALES AN D STOCKS 8th Federal Reserve District Dec., Nov., 1945 1945 ..365 . 227 .. 85 .. 92 Oct., 1945 Dec., 1944 255 248 121 108 333 207 83 90 303 266 116 103 Daily Average* 1935-39=100. Monthly Average 1923-25=100. S P E C IA L T Y STORES Net Sales Stocks on Hand Stock Turnover Dec., ’ 45 12 mos. ’ 45 Dec. 31, *45 Jan. 1, to compared with to same comp, with Dec. 31 Nov., *45 Dec., ’44 period ’ 44 Dec. 31/44 1945 1944 ten’s Furnishings+10% — 2% +16% — 48% 4.94 3.42 loots and Shoes..+15 +10 +17 — 28 11.37 8.53 Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding December 1, 945, collected during December: ten’s Furnishings........... —...65% Boots and Shoes---------- -------55% Trading days: December, 1945— 25; November, 1945— 25; December, 944— 25. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STORES Net Sales Inventories Ratio of December, 1945 December 31, 1945 Collections compared with compared with ------------------------Nov., *45 Dec., *44 Nov.30/45 Dec.31/44 Dec./45 Dec., 44 34% t. Louis Areai + 1 7 % +23% 42% — 13% + 2% St. Louis____ + 1 6 +26 — 13 33 41 + 2 — 6 33 +10 39 ouisville Area* + 1 7 +17 Louisville .... + 2 0 +15 — 10 37 33 + 6 * * [emphis ....__ — 4 +20 31 32 ittle R o c k ___ + 5 +18 — 9 31 29 + i3 * » * ort Smith------ + 1 0 +48 — 9 39 34 th Dist. Total8 + 1 4 +22 + 8 *Not shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included i Eighth District totals. ^Includes St. Louis, M issouri; East St. Louis and Alton, Illinois. ^Includes Louisville, Kentucky; and New Albany, Indiana. 3In addition to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Pine Bluff, rkansas; Henderson, Hopkinsville, Owensboro, Kentucky; Greenwood, tississippi; Hannibal and Springfield, Missouri. P E R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N OF F U R N IT U R E SALES Dec., *45 Nov., *45 Dec., *44 ash Sales.................................................. 29% redit Sales................................................ 71 Total Sales............................................ 100 Page 10 27% 73 100 28% 72 100 Most of the intended crops were put in, although some bottom areas, particularly regions in eastern and c'entral Arkansas, remained idle throughout the year. During most of the remainder of 1945, weather was favorable, although drouth conditions developed in the summer in several rather small areas. This, however, caused no serious damage. Harvesting was completed in a fairly orderly man ner. Some of the early hay crops were damaged by excessive moisture, however, and considerable diffi culty was experienced in picking the cotton crop. Also in some areas of Illinois, the soybean harvest was slow. During the war period total crop production in the United States increased by about one-fourth and total food output by about one-third. Agricultural production gains in this district generally were not as large as those for the country as a whole, pri marily because of adverse weather. Embracing as it does parts of the mightiest river system of the nation, the Eighth District is particularly vulnerable to floods and they have visited the district in every war year with more or less severe repercussions on crop output. Drouth has also played its part in curtailing agricultural production here in the past few years. When weather conditions are considered, it is amazing that district production in the early 1940’s has been as large as it was. The chart shows annual output of the five basic crops, corn, cotton, rice, tobacco and wheat, in the Eighth District during the past ten years. In the aggregate, district production of these crops in the period 1941-45 averaged 7 per cent above that for the years 1935-40. The nationwide gain was 18 per cent. The district’s biggest cash crop, cotton, was not particularly larger in volume in the 1941-45 period than in the prewar years. In fact, 1937 production of cotton was 25 per cent more than the wartime record of 1942 and 71 per cent more than last year’s poor crop. The important tobacco crops, particularly those of 1944 and 1945, however, were considerably larger than prewar output. Tobacco accounts for a sizable share of district cash farm income. Tobacco production is confined to small acreages on most farms and at best uses a relatively small percentage of the farm land, even in the major producing states of Kentucky and Tennessee. It does, however, require considerable labor. The unusually high prices of the war years were primarily responsible for the tremendous output. Of the two cereal food crops, district wheat pro duction in the war period averaged less than in pre war years while the wartime district rice crops were considerably larger than those of the 1930’s. Both of these developments were merely continuations of longer-term trends, partially arrested in the case of wheat, and somewhat accentuated in the case of rice. The gain in rice production, while striking, has not been of major importance as a contribution to district farm income, since production is not large relative to other cash crops and is confined to a relatively small area of the district. Corn production in the district during the war years increased considerably, but the gain was less than that of the nation as a whole. The 1945 district corn crop was 14 per cent larger than that of the period 1935-40, in contrast to an increase of 29 per cent for the total United States crop. There were substantial increases in some other district crops in the past few years. Soybean acreage expanded tremendously, for example, as did hay and pasture production. Peanuts and hemp were pro duced in sufficient volume to be noted. Truck crops, fruits, berries and vegetables all showed large gains in output with sweet potatoes in particular rising in importance as a district crop. Cash farm income soared to record heights during the war period. This has been true in the district as well as in the nation. Total cash farm income in Eighth District states in the prewar years, 193539, averaged about $1.5 billion. During the last three years of war it was only slightly under $4 billion. This tremendous increase in income partly reflects the increased production, but to a far greater extent reflects the tremendous rise in farm prices. Farm product prices rose at a more rapid rate during the war period than the cost of goods bought by farmers. Thus net income of farmers was unusually high. They have improved their financial position throughout the period. At the present time, how ever, the trend apparently is toward a continued rise in costs and a leveling off of gross income, which is likely to result in some reduction in net farm income in the months and years immediately ahead. The outlook for production in coming years in this district and in the United States is for a slight decline from the heavy output of the war years. In general, for the country as a whole, good farm weather has existed since 1937 and there has not been a serious national crop disaster due to unfavor able weather conditions. As was noted earlier, the district experienced much less favorable weather than did the nation and as a result, district crop production did not increase as sharply as that for the country as a whole. It seems unlikely that weather will be so consistently favorable in the W H O L E S A L IN G ______ Lines of Commodities_____________ Net Sales December, 1945 Data furnished by Bureau of Census, compared with U. S. Dept, of Commerce.* Nov., *45 Dec., *44 Drugs and Chemicals______________ — 6 % Dry Goods___....-____ _______ ______ — 10 Electrical Supplies________ .___ — 31 Groceries ............ ................................. — 19 Hardware ......... .................................. + 1 Plumbing Supplies________ ________ 4- 15 Tobacco and its Products....-....—,....—■4 - 4 Miscellaneous ____ ....______________ 4 - 6 Total all lines**....___...._______ ......... 6 •Preliminary. **Includes certain lines not listed above. Stocks Dec. 31, 1945 comp, with Dec. 31, 1944 4- 15% 4- 10 — 12 4444+ 4-12 — (-20 4- 1 4-33 33 23 18 14 15 -04-15 C O N S T R U C T IO N B U IL D IN G P E R M IT S New Construction (Cost in thousands) Number 1945 1944 Evansville __.... Little Rock.... .... Louisville ..... Memphis ___ .... St. Louis..... __ Dec. Nov. 1945 Repairs, etc. Cost 1944 32 62 63 474 136 12 18 29 233 68 $ 661 476 1,466 3,889 1,189 Totals...._ 767 773 T otals, 360 454 7,681 5,484 $ Number 1945 1944 Cost 1945 1944 23 43 432 311 362 67 116 28 126 139 37 ' 81 17 110 137 $ 183 87 39 192 202 1,171 828 476 771 382 789 703 783 $ 17 26 7 103 183 336 682 B A N K IN G CHANGES IN P R IN C IP A L A SSE TS A N D L IA B IL IT IE S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U IS Change from Jan. 16, Dec. 19, Jan. 17, (In thousands of dollars) 1946 1945 1945 Industrial advances under Sec. 13b............ $ ............... 4,123 — *12,737 — 26,777 Other advances and rediscounts........ U. S. securities...___________ _____ — ____ 1,082,817 4- 18,257 4-276,811 Total earning assets..... .................... ..... 1,086,940 4- 5,520 4-250,034 Total reserves........................................... 624,636 664,224 Total deposits........................... .............. ..... F. R. notes in circulation.................... ..... 1,053,056 ___ — — 15,078 17,681 9,815 — 45,945 4 - 73,752 4-126,016 — 55 Industrial commitments under Sec. 1 3 b ................................. . P R IN C IP A L R E SO U R CE A N D L I A B I L IT Y ITE M S OF R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B AN KS Change from Jan. 16, Dec. 19, Jan. 17, (In thousands of dollars) 1946 1945 1945 Total loans and investments....................... $2,238,752 +29,358 -f-347,197 Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans* ......................... ................................ 344,137 - f 5,638 + 76,300 Loans to brokers and dealers in securities 10,652 — 1,931 2,459 Other loans to purchase and carry securi ties ................... ~ ....................................... 82,738+ 6 4 . 45,673 Real estate loans............................................ 69,693 4- 1,497 -j- 4,558 Loans to banks.............................................. 2,477 4 - 1,214 4459 Other loans ...... ............................................. 95,736 — 5,906 4 - 10,997 Total loans ............................................ 605,433 + 518 4-140,446 Treasury bills ................................................ 68,391 4-20,347 4- 22,571 Certificates of indebtedness............... ........ 293,219 -j-34,971 — 20,579 326,410 — 33,905 — 12,364 Treasury notes .............................................. U. S. bonds... ................................................ 806,422 -f-10,739 4-217,649 Obligations guaranteed by U. S. Govern ment ............... ............................................ 1,852 4- 1,490 — 24,136 Other securities ............................................ 137,025 — 4,802 4- 23,610 Total investments „ ......... ...................... 1,633,319 4-28,840 4-206,751 Balances with domestic banks.................... 119,413 — 4,058 — 823 Demand deposits— adjusted** .................... 1,079,199 4-16,840 -f- 58,808 Time deposits .......... .............................. ....... 341,970 -j- 6,500 -j- 65,293 U. S. Government deposits......................— 487,180 -{- 1,093 4-197,952 Interbank deposits ........................................ 704,074 -j-21,654 4- 74,762 Borrowings .................................................... 2,485 — 12,765 — 29,915 * Includes open market paper. ** Other than interbank and Government deposits, less cash items on hand or in process of collection. Above figures are for selected member banks in St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis, Little Rock and Evansville. Page 11 years ahead as the past record indicates that good and bad crop weather tends to move in cycles. Con sequently, total crop production may well recede slightly from the wartime peak. Despite the probable decrease in total agricultural output from record wartime levels, it appears likely that farm production in the coming years will be in much greater total volume than in the prewar period. Population has increased, and if total national in come can be maintained at a high level, domestic demand for farm products should be much stronger than in prewar years. There is also hope for a larger export market than existed prior to W orld War II. Furthermore, much of the increase in total food output during the war period reflects substantial expansion in production of livestock and livestock products. This has resulted partly because of in creased crop production, but partly because of con sumption of the large stocks of feed crops built up prior to the outbreak of war. Output of livestock and livestock products may need to be adjusted downward to stay in line with feed crop production. The critical feed situation which has faced the live stock farmer for the past two years and continues to be a factor in livestock production today is evidence pointing toward this development. •Even with these developments, however, agri culture will probably be required to shift its pro duction pattern somewhat, and demand for certain crops may well be depressed even in the midst of generally favorable agricultural conditions. One crop which may find itself in this position is burley tobacco, which is one of the major crops in this dis trict. Burley prices in the present marketing season have been reduced sharply from last year’s level. The crop is still selling at relatively favorable prices but its current experience is evidence of what can happen when supply outruns demand even though the latter is at a very high level. It should serve as a warning of probable developments in other crops where production during the war was ex panded beyond a peacetime level of demand. Finally, productivity of the soil has been strained tremendously during the war period, and soil de pletion apparently has advanced at an increasingly rapid rate. A general shift toward fewer acres in row crop production and more acres in hay and pasture seems indicated. Along with this an in creased use of soil treatment will be necessary if part of the soil deficiency accumulated during the war years is to be replaced. PRODUCTION OF BASIC FARM CROPS AND CASH FARM INCOME * IN THE EIGHTH DISTRICT ThouMndt ot Bole* C O TTO N Billion* of Dollar. Millions of Bu*h«l* W H EA T Million* of Bu*h«l* Page 12 CASH FARM INCOME * RICE Million* of Bu*h«l* CORN Million* of Pound* TO BA CCO