Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) : August 1, 1947

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Monthly Review
F

E

D

E

Volume X X IX

R'

A

L

R E S E R V E

B A N K

AU GU ST 1, 1947

Number 8

Retail Trade: Review and Outlook
The American public spent more money at retail
stores in the past eighteen months, and received a
larger volume of goods in return, than in any sim­
ilar period since the first retail transaction took
place in this country. As a result of this outpour­
ing of dollars in exchange for goods, retail sales
volume in 1946 totaled $97 billion, more than in
any previous year in history. But even this record
is being surpassed in 1947. Through May, con­
sumer purchases at retail stores were at an annual
rate of $113 billion or almost 16 per cent more than
last year. Sales of durable goods, which have re­
turned to dealers' shelves in increasing quantities,
were 41 per cent ahead of 1946 while the dollar
volume of nondurable sales was 11 per cent larger
than in the first five months of last year.
In the past few weeks, however, the margin over
1946 has tended to narrow, both in terms of value
of sales and of physical volume. Currently, almost
all the increase in dollar volume over a year earlier
reflects higher prices. In terms of dollars, 1947
sales gains over like months in 1946 probably will
continue to narrow as the year advances, and in
terms of physical volume may even be reversed.
Nevertheless for the whole year 1947 dollar sales
should be well above 1946 and unit volume as high
or slightly higher than last year.
The record of retail trade since early 1946 is at
once a reflection of, as well as a contributing factor
to, the highest level of economic activity this
country has ever experienced under peacetime con­
ditions. Essentially, the fact that consumers since
the war have spent a larger amount of money in
retail establishments than ever before in history




results from the tremendous current demand plus
the war-created backlog of demand for all types of
goods. This potential demand, despite price in­
creases, has been backed up by purchasing power
sufficient to translate it into effective demand. This
in itself is a reflection of the fact that employ­
ment and income since the war have been main­
tained at levels substantially higher than ever be­
fore in peacetime years. Income payments, which
in the first quarter of last year were at an annual
rate of $157 billion, climbed to an estimated $170
billion average in the first half of 1947, and in May
were at an annual rate of $178 billion. In addition
to high current income, consumers have had at
their disposal past savings and abundant credit.
As a result, people have more spending money than
ever before and the sales figures are ample evidence
that they are spending it.
Striking as the trend of retail sales volume has
been during the past eighteen months, the growth
in dollar volume was only one of a number of im­
portant developments in retail trade in this period.
Of primary significance, particularly with respect
to longer-term implications for sales volume, is the
fact that after the wartime interruption the prewar
relationship between sales and disposable income
is becoming re-established. During the war years,
retail sales rose steadily as measured in terms of
dollar value. However, the rate of increase was
not as great as the gain in disposable income, or
the amount of money consumers as a whole had left
after taxes. Thus, retail sales in 1944 represented
only 51 per cent of total disposable income as com­
pared with 63 per cent in 1941.

Since the end of the war, however, the prewar
relationship of spending to income has become re­
established. In 1946 consumer spending at retail
stores was slightly above the 1941 rate. In the first
half of 1947 this ratio registered little change from
the preceding year.
The chief reasons for the decline in the ratio of
retail sales to the amount of money consumers had
to spend during the war were that goods were not
available in sufficient quantity and that prices were
controlled. Production of many consumers* goods
was curtailed and output of some items was halted
entirely. Particularly was this true of certain dur­
ables such as automobiles, refrigerators and stoves.
In addition to the war-enforced shortages of
many items that tended to restrict the expansion of
consumer buying, retail dollar volume was also held
in check by rationing and price controls that were
in effect during the war period. W ith the lifting of
rationing controls on most items after the end of
the war and the virtual abandonment of price regu­
lations in mid-1946, retail sales increased more than
seasonally through the end of 1946.
During the first half of 1947, as noted, dollar
volume of retail trade has continued to rise. It has
shown, however, smaller month-to-month changes
than the gains recorded in the immediate postwar
period. For example, March, 1947, marked the first
month in more than a year that sales at durable
goods stores did not better the usual seasonal per­
formance. For some time it has been apparent that
sales of so-called luxury lines have been impaired
by the higher cost of basic living necessities even
though retailers have been offering more complete
lines of merchandise.
In the soft-goods line,
women’s apparel stores have afforded an example
of lower sales volume.
A. second important development in retail trade
in recent months has been the reappearance of
normal seasonal sales patterns in many lines of
goods. For example, the traditional post-holiday
clearance sales and special sales events once more
are being utilized to sustain sales volume and to
clear unseasonal merchandise f r o m retailers’
shelves.
Finally, the rising volume of sales since early last
year has reflected the steadily increasing supply of
cdnsumers' goods. As a result, the sellers’ market,
which characterized retail trade during the war
Page 86




period and was still dominant in 1946, has begun
to change to a limited buyers’ market and consumers
are able to exercise some degree of choice between
styles and price ranges in some lines. At the end of
the war all retailers were combating unfavorably
low stocks-sales ratios. Today there are increasing
signs that inventory accumulation in many lines
has reached the point where retailers are buying
goods more cautiously. The list of products which
are hard to obtain is shrinking, although the major
durable items are still in short supply and are ex­
pected to be the last to become plentiful. In non­
durables, some lines and types of men’s wear have
not yet been produced in sufficient quantity to sat­
isfy demand. Style changes in women’s wear have
resulted in some lines of women’s accessories be­
coming outmoded.
In the first half of 1946, sales at nondurable
stores were at an annual rate of $75 billion, 20 per
cent larger than in the previous year. The annual
rate of $85 billion reached in the second half of
the year chiefly reflected sharply increased prices.
Total durable goods sales amounted to $19 billion
during 1946— about two-thirds greater than in 1945
and well above those in 1941.
As a result of shortages of durables during the
war, consumer spending spilled over into nondur­
ables. In the early postwar period nondurable sales
gains have partly reflected transitory factors such
as very heavy purchases of clothing by returned
service personnel, lack of lower-priced goods which
forced buying of higher-priced lines, and a decline
in the rate of savings. It is important to note, how­
ever, that so far the heavy buying at nondurables
stores has not yet fallen off to any significant
degree.
A comparison of sales by lines of trade shows
many contrasting developments in the trends
among the durable and nondurable goods lines.
W omen’s apparel stores experienced a greatly in­
creased volume of sales during the war years and
registered an even higher volume during most of
1946. At the end of the year and during the first
half of 1947, sales gains over the previous year
were halted, at least temporarily, by the availability
of other wanted merchandise and consumer insist­
ence on different styling and better grades of goods.
Sales at men’s wear stores during the war period
experienced a considerably smaller gain in total
volume than occurred in women’s stores. W ith the

return of servicemen to civilian life, sales at men’s
stores increased sharply. However, late in 1946 it
became apparent that the rate of increase was de­
clining and in the first half of 1947 the monthly
gains continued to slacken.

amounted to about $400 million and might have
been even larger had the supply of goods been more
adequate. For the first six months of 1947 dollar
sales averaged 8 per cent more than in the like
period of 1946.

A somewhat different picture was recorded in
department store sales. In the first half of 1946,
just as during the war years, department stores
expanded their total sales by means of soft goods;
hard goods, of course, could not be sold in any
volume. With the slackening in demand for soft
goods, especially higher-priced and luxury items,
the increased availability of consumer durables
offset the threatened lower sales volume.

Department stores normally depend primarily on
the sale of women’s apparel, men’s wear, and other
lines of soft goods for a major share of their total
volume. As was noted earlier, department store
sales gains in wartime were based mainly on the
fact that they handled the more plentiful soft goods
lines in substantially larger volume. Currently, the
fact that they also handle hard goods has main­
tained sales gains for them. In 1941, for example,
18 per cent of their total sales were accounted for
by home furnishings. In 1944, this percentage
dropped to 14. Presently, hard goods account for a
significantly larger portion— 19 per cent in 1946 and
an estimated 21 per cent for 1947. With the in­
creased supply of major household appliances in the
latter part of 1946, dollar sales of home furnishings
for the year were more than double those of 1941.
In 1947, sales of such items seem likely to triple
the 1941 volume.
In the soft lines, men’s and women’s clothing in
1946, also doubled the 1941 volume, but so far in
1947 are little above this level. In the latter part
of last year and continuing into 1947 sales of luxury

The backlog of demand plus establishment of
new households kept home-furnishing sales moving
at a rapid pace throughout 1946 and the first half
of 1947. While goods steadily became more avail­
able, sales volume continued to be limited to some
extent by supply of merchandise.
Jewelry store sales, in sharply increased volume
during the war years, were virtually the only dur­
ables line to experience a decline in sales during
the latter part of 1946 and first half of 1947. Gen­
eral price rises coupled with the increased avail­
ability of more essential goods cut into the luxury
jewelry trade.
In the remaining durable goods stores, varia­
tions of sales volume were effected primarily by
condition of supply. In light of the tremendous
backlog for most of the major consumer durables,
prices apparently were no deterrent to sales.

INDEXES

OF

EIGHTH
DISTRICT
DEPARTMENT
SALES AND STOCKS

ADJUSTED

FOR

SEASONAL

STORE

VARIATION

EIGHTH DISTRICT TRADE IN 1946 AND 1947

Retail merchants in the Eighth District have had
experience similar to that of their fellow merchants
throughout the United States. As in the nation,
1946 dollar volume of sales in this district reached
new highs, and 1947 is running well ahead of 1946.
The high level of income attained during the war
years probably has been held better in the district
than in the nation. Since the district traditionally
has depended to a large degree on agricultural in­
come, Eighth District per capita income has been
affected very favorably by the increased prices
farmers have received. Nonagricultural employ­
ment is very high also; nonfarm activity has in­
creased sharply in this area.

Department Stores—At department stores in this
district, the dollar volume of sales during 1946




Page 87

goods — furs, silverware, jewelry and the like —
slackened considerably, partly reflecting consumer
uncertainty over the removal of the Federal excise
tax.
The general movement of department store sales
in the past eighteen months has been fairly similar
in all major cities of the Eighth District. Fort
Smith and Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis, Ten­
nessee; and Springfield, Missouri, however, have
lagged behind the average increase for the district.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, department store
sales for the district as a whole in 1947 have re­
mained at about the same level as in the latter half
of 1946. Sales (adjusted) peaked during August,
1946, at Louisville, Kentucky; Memphis, Tennes­
see; and Little Rock, Arkansas. The volume of
sales at St. Louis during August, 1946, the highest
point previously reached, was bettered in Novem­
ber, 1946.
In terms of dollars, total inventories at depart­
ment stores are reverting to more normal (prewar)
stocks-sales ratios.
However, some lines may
never return to the prewar ratio due to more effici­
ent merchandising methods born of wartime short­
ages. Ratio of present value of inventory to sales
at department stores is approximately equivalent to
that of prewar years. As in the case of total
department store sales, however, over-all inventory
figures conceal the lack of balance between the var­
ious lines of merchandise within the store.
Low stocks-sales ratios continue to exist in some
lines where production is at an all-time high, due
to the seemingly endless demand. For example,
although most of the major manufacturers of
household appliances are producing far more units
than in prewar times, the change from an underto over-supply of major appliances, originally fore­
cast by some to come late in 1946, has not yet
materialized. However, in some lines of minor
durables, supply has come into, balance with de­
mand, and in a few, over-supply exists. Retail
inventories of some small electrical items have in­
creased uncomfortably.
In some lines of soft goods, particularly men's
suits, there are shortages of certain sizes and styles
despite the fact that total production is high. In
addition an unbalanced condition exists between de­
mand and supply of known brands as compared
with demand and supply of unknown brands of
goods. Unseasonal weather in the past few months
also has aggravated unbalanced inventories.
Apparel Stores— At women’s apparel stores in
this district, sales experience was like that in the
Page 88




comparable divisions of department stores in the
early postwar months. Sales at both were in large
dollar and unit volume. W om en’s apparel stores,
however, seem to be more sensitive to market con­
ditions than the like department store divisions.
Sales volume registered large year-to-year gains
during the first part of 1946, but in the latter part of
the year the gains narrowed. During the first part
of 1947, sales volume has been virtually unchanged
from the same months last year. Keener considera­
tion of the price and quality of merchandise, un­
seasonal weather, and as yet untried style changes
have had a limiting effect on total volume. Sales
of women’s accessories have been limited by the in­
ability of some accessory manufacturers to catch
up with changing styles.
During 1946, women’s wear inventories rose very
sharply in some lines. With sales failing to regis­
ter anticipated gains the overstocking resulted in
extensive price reductions, particularly in lowpriced and inferior quality lines of goods. Dollar
value of inventories at women’s wear stores showed
little change in the first half of 1947 as compared
to the same period a year earlier. In general, in­
ventories at women’s stores (in terms of value) are
beginning to reflect the end of the sellers’ market.
W omen’s store buyers recently have been able
to shop for style, quality, and quantity of merchan­
dise.
The volume of sales at men’s wear stores since
the end of the war has been very large. In terms
of dollars, sales doubled those of prewar years. Some
of the increase in demand, however, reflected tem­
porary factors and by the end of 1946 some indica­
tions of a slackening in demand became apparent.
While men’s wear stores are not as affected by
style changes as women’s apparel shops, they are
just as sensitive to market conditions. Consider­
able resistance on the part of the consumer to in­
ferior quality, high-priced goods has been encount­
ered. One other limiting factor on total sales
volume has been the shortage of certain styles and
lines of apparel coupled with unseasonal deliveries
of some types of the major items of men’s apparel.
In terms of value, inventories at men’s wear stores
on June 30 were one-third greater than those held
last year.
Furniture and Appliance Stores— In the durables
group of reporting stores, the volume of sales at
furniture stores and household appliance stores has
been booming since the beginning of the flow of
goods from the reconverted durable goods indus­
tries. Sales of district furniture stores held close to
the prewar level during the war years. At the end

of the war, previously missing household durables
began to reach the consumers' market in increasing
quantities and the backlog of demand has been
such as to skyrocket sales. Actually, sales volume
has been limited by supply of goods. Some signs
of more selective buying by consumers have become
evident recently, but have not appreciably affected
volume. Inventories in terms of value were about
two-thirds greater for the first half of 1947 than for
the comparable period last year.
Total home-furnishing inventory figures, while
in fair balance with regard to anticipated sales,
conceal an unbalanced picture as between lines of
merchandise. Popular priced lines of certain types
of furniture have not yet been produced in suffici­
ent volume to satisfy demand. The major electric
durables, with production at peak levels, are still
in short supply and hard and soft floor coverings
are in inadequate volume.
Wartime-produced
goods, in some cases foreign to normal furniture
retailing, have been moved from the merchants’
storerooms. Quality of home furnishings has been
greatly improved and some very real “ hidden” price
reductions have been accomplished by this increase
in quality.
Jewelry Stores— Jewelry s t o r e s registered a
sharply increasing level of sales during the war
years. Merchandise was in fairly adequate supply
and demand was heavy for costume jewelry, glass­
ware, and general gift lines. For some time it has
PER

CENT OF TOTAL SALES IN SELECTED DIVISIONS
EIGHTH DISTRICT DEPARTMENT STORES

been apparent that jewelry store sales volume had
been adversely affected by the increased cost of
basic living necessities. One other limiting factor
in total jewelry store sales is the excise tax. In­
ventories at jewelry stores, not affected to the ex­
tent of other durable goods stores during the war
period, were in fair balance on June 30 with the
exception of a few lines of goods.
THE OUTLOOK
The future of retail sales over the next year—
that is, through mid-1948— is a key question in the
economic outlook. The sales level will depend, of
course, upon two major factors— the volume of
purchasing power in the hands of the consuming
public and the people's decisions as to its disposal.
In connection with the amount of purchasing
power two points should be made. First, as long
as current activity remains high current income
should remain high, and it is current income which
supplies the great bulk of buying power. Here it
should be noted, however, that income in the aggre­
gate can be high and still be badly distributed, so
that the people who want goods and services are
unable to purchase as much as they want while
those with adequate means satisfy their demands
with less than the funds they have at hand. Such
a situation tends to limit effective demand and hold
down the level of activity. This is where the dan­
ger of sharp price rises lies— it tends to result in
maldistribution of income. Furthermore, as prices
rise, buying, of necessity, focuses more and more
on basic items such as food and shelter and demand
for other items slackens.
The second point is that high current incomes
constitute now a more important segment of total
purchasing power than they did at the end of the
war. The most recent Federal Reserve survey of
liquid assets indicates a growing concentration of
such assets in the higher income groups, which
means simply that for a large segment of the popu­
lation wartime savings no longer are a factor in
buying power. The extent to which the increased
use of consumer credit will add to current buying
power of these people remains to be seen.

0

■

20

'

40

'

60

WOMENS AND
f ""
|MEN AND
M ISSESS APPAREL |_____ |B0YS WEAR

||||j|plECE GOODS

jj| | | M ISC E LLA N E O U S

80

i00

[ H i l HOUSE FURNISHINGS
|

[s T O R f ^ 1

As far as the public's decisions as to spending are
concerned one important point was made earlier.
Basic necessities must be purchased and the more
purchasing power such items siphon off, the less
will be available for other goods. General price
rises, without attendant rises in income of the
mass of consumers, would lead to such a situation.
T o get the reaction of the various retailers who
report regularly to this bank, a number of them

* F'T iV U T E D




Page 89

were asked to give their opinions of the outlook
for sales and prices of the lines they handled and
what policies they were following in the light
of their anticipations.
In general, the retailers contacted expect for the
last half of 1947 higher sales than in the last half
of 1946, although the year-to-year increase is esti­
mated at less than took place in the first half of
1947. For the first half of 1948 they expect the
sales gains over the comparable period a year
earlier to narrow still further and in many cases
they anticipate dollar sales to decline from a year
earlier. By and large, retailers in the bigger cities
of the district are more optimistic in their outlook
than those in the smaller cities, a position easily
understandable since so far in 1947 larger sales
increases over the comparable period a year earlier
have been reported in the major cities than in the
minor urban areas.
The notable exception to the foregoing is in the
hard goods lines, particularly the appliance re­
tailers, where sales gains of astonishing magnitude
are forecast for the last half of 1947 relative to the
last half of 1946. Appliance dealers apparently
still expect sales to be limited to some extent by
supply of goods throughout the balance of this
year.
In line with their belief about sales performance,
most retailers expect the prices of goods they buy
and the prices of goods they sell to hold about
constant for the last half of 1947. Declines are an­
ticipated for the first half of 1948 but the price
decreases which are expected are relatively small,
averaging perhaps 10 per cent. Again, hard goods
dealers’ opinions vary from the average in that
many of them expect further price advances in the
last half of 1947 to be followed by a decline in the
first half of 1948.
Practically all stores report instances of consumer
resistance but, by and large, such consumer resist­
ance seems to be manifested in objections to quality
of goods, style, etc., and not to the actual amount
of money required for a particular item. As a
matter of fact the general feeling seems to be that
consumers would object little to present money
prices if quality and styling improved. There were
few instances where retailers felt that lack of pur­
chasing power was keeping consumers out of their
stores and such cases as were noted related pri­
marily to luxury items.
Thus, according to the retailer, the consuming
public apparently has enough money to hold sales
at very high levels but such resistance as is evident
Page 90




is likely to bring prices down to some extent, and
the decline in dollar sales volume will reflect, almost
completely, a decline in prices. In these retailers’
opinions buying will continue if the types of goods
consumers wish to buy are made available.
Eighth District retailers have adopted a much
more cautious attitude toward inventories and
orders. As noted earlier, inventories are still out
of balance and it should ,be stressed that such lack
of balance reflects overages in certain lines as well
as shortages in others. T o move out lines that are
overstocked in terms of anticipated sales levels,
prices have been and are being sliced, special sales
events are becoming more common, and in general
considerable effort is being devoted to bringing
stocks into better balance.
Furthermore, outstanding orders have been
slashed severely and many stores are now pursuing
a policy of ordering far less than anticipated needs,
rather than purchasing any and every item that is
offered them. For example, at district department
stores the dollar value of outstanding orders is
about one-third what it was this time last year. If
sales hold at the present levels such cautious buy­
ing could place stores in the embarrassing position
of running short on merchandise for which their
customers were clamoring.
Finally, it might be noted that unusual borrowing
from banks to finance inventory is uncommon at
Eighth District retail stores. Traditional borrow­
ers for this purpose are using bank credit as they
always have, and since goods costs are higher more
dollars are being borrowed. The relative propor­
tion of inventory so financed, however, is not much
different from the prewar amount. Many retailers
are buying goods completely with cash or by means
of trade payables.
In summary, then, it might be said that the out­
look for retail trade in this area seems fundament­
ally good. For the balance of 1947 sales should
continue above the like period of 1946 but with the
gains narrowing. In 1948, the dollar volume of
sales may decline somewhat but would still be at an
extremely high level. This view, of course, pre­
supposes that income will remain high, that prices
will show relatively little change for the rest of
this year and decline somewhat in 1948.
Despite the general feeling of optimism, how­
ever, cautious buying policies are being followed
by retailers so that if the anticipated sales levels
are not reached a minimum of trouble with inven­
tory acquired at high cost will result.

Alfred C. Kearschner.

Survey of Current Conditions
Public attention continues to be focused on the
problem of cost and prices. Increased production
costs in the coal industry, and higher coal prices,
are expected to be reflected in higher costs and
prices in all coal-consuming industries, beginning
with steel. Thus, another wave of increases may
move through the entire price structure, ultimately
ending in higher living costs for consumers.
Wholesale prices generally tended to level off
during the second quarter, and at the end of June
averaged only 6 per cent higher than in the first
week in January. Larger-than-average increases
in the first six months of the year occurred in
prices of farm products and manufactured goods,
but the movement in finished goods prices varied
considerably among the various commodity groups.
For example, average prices of building materials
at the end of June were 14 per cent higher than
at the beginning of the year, but the price of chem­
icals as a group was 3 per cent lower than early
in January.
The extent to which higher costs will be ab­
sorbed by manufacturers, without subsequent price
increases, remains to be seen. It has become in­
creasingly apparent, however, that such increases
are placing manufacturers under growing pressure
to discover methods of cutting costs. One such
method is the substitution of new machines for
manpower and for obsolete machines. A hint of
things to come is contained in reports from the
machine tool industry describing new equipment
currently in production and on the drafting boards.
For example, a machine which does in 90 minutes
a job which formerly required two days. Or a
machine which in 35 seconds produces bearing
rings that used to take two minutes to make. Or
a machine which with one operator does a job that
formerly required eight machines and eight op­
erators.
However, the impact on the price structure from
this source cannot be expected to exert much in­
fluence on near term price trends. Of greater sig­
nificance during the coming months is the nation’s
foreign lending and export program. In the post­
war period to date an important portion of produc­
tion has been channeled into exports. As a result,
prices of many commodities have been at levels
higher than would have prevailed in the absence of
foreign demand. However, the growing shortage
of dollar exchange abroad raises some doubt as to
the permanence of this source of demand for Amer­
ican goods. Unless foreign credits are continued




until such time as other nations are able to increase
their shipments to this country in order to pay for
our exports, one current important upward pressure
on prices will decline in strength.
EMPLOYMENT
During the first half of 1947, the supply of and
demand for labor were in closer balance than at
any time in 1945 or 1946. Matching of workers
with jobs became less difficult, and the majority
of the veterans were absorbed satisfactorily by
industry.
In June more civilians were employed in the
nation than ever before, but in the Eighth District
employment was still not as great as at the wartime
peak. As a result, district unemployment is cur­
rently a somewhat higher proportion of the labor
force than the national average, although no large
labor surplus exists here. If future employment
forecasts are correct, however, this district should
approach by the end of the year the peak employ­
ment reached during the war.
Both employment and unemployment increased
in the Eighth District during June due principally
to seasonal factors. School graduates and summer
workers who entered the labor market in large
numbers more than offset employment increases in
agriculture, construction, public utilities and serv­
ice. A few scattered layoffs due to order cancella­
tions, shortages or uneven flow of materials, labor
disputes, etc., also resulted in some increased un­
employment.
In contrast to 1946, a year of rapidly expanding
employment ip practically all industry groups, the
first half of 1947 has been a period of relative sta­
bility. Non-agricultural employment in the five
major labor market areas in the district has in­
creased less than 1 per cent this year as compared
with a rise of 7 per cent during the same months of
1946. Manufacturing has had the largest numerical,
and construction the largest percentage increase in
employment during the early part of this year, al­
though these gains have been relatively minor
when compared with the larger ones of 1946.
Trade and service employment has increased
slightly, that in mining and public utilities has re­
mained fairly constant, and Government employ­
ment has decreased so far in 1947.
Evansville and St. Louis, each with an estimated
5,000 worker gain, have had the largest increases in
total non-agricultural employment so far this year.
Louisville has registered a rise of slightly less than
Page 91

1,000; Memphis has had a drop of almost 2,500; and
Little Rock employment has decreased almost 500.
Manufacturing employment h a s increased in
Evansville, Louisville and Little Rock, remained
constant in St. Louis, and decreased in Memphis.
The estimated total non-agricultural employ­
ment of 1,164,000 in the five areas in May, 1947 was
only 8,000 more than at the beginning of the year
but was 95,000 more than in January, 1946. Cur­
rent employment is 80,000 below the wartime peak
but is almost a quarter of a million above the 1940
census figure.
INDUSTRY
Eighth District industrial activity in the second
quarter remained at the high level reached in the
first three months of the year. It was more than
15 per cent higher than in the second quarter of
1946. Increases in most manufacturing industries
and in construction offset declines in the output
of coal and crude oil.
The consumption of industrial power in the sec­
ond quarter was 6 per cent higher than in the first
quarter this year and was 14 per cent over the
second quarter of 1946. In the first quarter the
rise over the comparable months of 1946 was 18
per cent. The smaller gain from a year earlier in
the June quarter is not to be taken as indicating a
declining trend. Activity in the early months of
1946 was curtailed considerably by materials short­
ages and labor disputes and consequently the com­
parison with 1947 was distorted somewhat. All
cities except Memphis reported an increase from
the first quarter of 1947 and in each city consump­
tion was larger than in the second quarter of 1946.
INDUSTRY
C O N S U M P T IO N
( K .W .H .
in thous.)

O F E L E C T R IC IT Y

Cus1947
tom ers* K .W .H .

1947
K .W .H .

8,779
Evansville ...... 40
Little R o c k .... 35
3,830
Louisville ...... 80
56,329
M em phis ........ 31
5,448
Pine B lu f f ...... 22
4,388
St. L ou is........ 99
70,803
Totals ........ 307
149,577
•Selected industrial custom ers.
R — Revised.

8,730
3,458
63,179
5,266
1,065
62,865
144,563

1946Compared with
K .W .H . M a y,*47 June/46
6,504 +
1%
3,334 4* 11
52.993R — 11
4,925 4 - 3
1,146 4-312
58,442R 4 - 13
127.344R 4 - 3

4* 35%
4 -1 5
4 -6
4- H
4-283
4 - 21
4 -1 7

L O A D S I N T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A I L R O A D S A T ST. L O U I S
June, *47

M ay, *47

June, *46

First N ine Days
July, *47 July, *46

6 mos. *47

119,120
131,959
125,012
29,996
33,404
770,730
S ou rce: Term inal Railroad Association of St. Louis.

6 mos. *46
717,967

C R U D E O IL P R O D U C T IO N — D A IL Y A V E R A G E
( I n thousands
o£ bbls.)

June, *47

Arkansas ................. 81.2
Illinois ....................... 187.9
Indiana .................... . 17.7
K entucky ............. . 25.9
T otal ..................... 312.7

Page 92




M ay, *47

June, *46

June, *47 comp, with
M ay, *47
June, *46

80.4
78.8
4 - 1%
187.0 207.3
-0 17.8
20.0
— 1
25.7
30.7
4- 1
310.9
336.8
4- 1

4 -3 %
— 9
— 11
— 16
— 7

Manufacturing— Manufacturing operations in the
June quarter averaged higher than in the first three
months of the year and were at a substantially
higher level than in the second quarter last year
when schedules reflected work stoppages and short­
ages of materials and supplies. However, the gains
this year have not been uniform. Production of
chemicals, electrical equipment, paper, foods, and
stone, clay and glass products was larger than in
the first three months, output of shoes changed
little, while whisky production and operations in
the basic steel industry declined.
The St. Louis steel industry increased operating
schedules in June to 65 per cent of capacity from
41 per cent in May. For the second quarter as a
whole the industry was held to 57 per cent of ca­
pacity, due to work stoppages and maintenance
requirements in May, as compared with 70 per cent
in the first three months. Only 28 per cent of ca­
pacity was realized in the June quarter of 1946.
Lumber production increased only slightly in
the second quarter, according to preliminary esti­
mates, but output continued larger than in 1946.
In the first four months production in the district
states totalled 1.7 billion board feet as compared
with 1.5 billion through April, 1946. Inventories of
lumber held by mills and concentration yards in
these states increased proportionately more than
total U. S. stocks during the first four months. At
the end of April district states* stocks amounted to
887 million board feet, an increase of 20 per cent
since the end of 1946. Total U. S. stocks were ex­
panded only about 10 per cent during the same
period.
At the end of June there were fewer whisky
distilleries in operation in Kentucky than at any
time since the end of May, 1946. Only 25 distil­
leries were operating as compared with 40 at the
end of May and 31 at the close of June, 1946. While
the number of units in operation on a single day is
not a fully adequate measure of production trend,
there is increasing evidence that current cost levels
plus difficulties encountered in selling whisky at
present prices have resulted in substantial curtail­
ment in output. Production in Kentucky this year
has declined monthly from a peak of 12.6 million
gallons in January to 8.3 million gallons in May.
In the first five months of 1947 district shoe fac­
tories produced more than 40 million pairs of shoes
as compared with 37.5 million pairs in the same
period last year. In April and May production was
smaller than a year earlier but the unfavorable com­
parison results largely from the fact that in these
two months last year, output was at or near the all­

time peak.
Meat-packing operations in the St. Louis area
increased slightly in June and in the second quar­
ter averaged approximately 10 per cent higher than
in the first three months. The number of animals
slaughtered under Federal inspection in the June
quarter totalled 1.3 million as compared with 1.2
million in the first quarter. Slaughter of calves,
hogs and sheep increased sharply but the number
of cattle killed declined from 206,000 to 194,000. In
the first six months of this year 24 per cent more
animals were slaughtered than in the first half of
1946 and 9 per cent more than in the last six months
of 1946.
Petroleum— Daily average production of crude
oil in district states increased slightly in June, but
in the second quarter output averaged less than in
the first three months of 1947 and below that in the
second quarter of last year. In each of the pro­
ducing states except Arkansas, daily average out­
put in the June quarter declined from a year ago.
Daily production in Arkansas was higher than in
the first quarter of 1947 and in Indiana was un­
changed, but in Illinois and Kentucky output de­
clined from the levels reported in the first three
months. In the June quarter district output aver­
aged 311,000 barrels per day as compared with 319,000 barrels in the first three months and 338,000
barrels in the second quarter of 1946.
Construction— Despite a sharp increase in build­
ing permits awarded in the major district cities
during the three months to June 30, their value in
the first half of the year was substantially less than
in the same period last year when volume totalled
$45.9 million. Building permits valued at $10.3
million were awarded in the major district cities in
June, lifting the total for the second quarter to
$24.4 million as compared with $13.6 million in the
first three months and $16,0 million in the second
quarter of 1946.
The value of awards in each of the cities in the
second quarter was larger than in either the first
quarter of 1947 or the June quarter last year.
These increases over a year ago contrast sharply
to the declines which occurred in all cities in the
first three months of 1947 as compared with a year
earlier. However, only in Little Rock was the sec­
ond quarter increase over a year ago sufficient to
offset the unfavorable comparison earlier in the
year.
TRADE
At reporting department stores in the Eighth
District unseasonable weather combined with a
two-week public transportation strike in St. Louis
to produce a June, 1947, sales volume that was 19




per cent less than in May, 1947, and 2 per cent
below June, 1946. On a seasonally adjusted basis,
however, the dollar value of goods moving from the
retailers' shelves was but slightly lower than dur­
ing December, 1946. Some shortages are continu­
ing to limit sales, but the number of products in
low supply is diminishing. In terms of value, in­
ventories of reporting department stores on June
30, 1947, were 4 per cent less than at the end of the
previous month but were 12 per cent larger than
those on June 30, 1946.
W omen’s apparel store sales during June were
36 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively, below
the volume of the previous month and the compar­
able month in 1946. Dollar sales at St. Louis
women's apparel stores during June, 1947, prob­
ably were curtailed more than at department stores
by adverse weather conditions, the transit strike,
changing styles and continuing consumer resist­
ance to price and quality of merchandise. The
value of inventories in these stores at the end of
June, 1947, showed little change from May 31, 1947,
and were 23 per cent smaller than on the corre­
sponding date last year.
During June, dollar sales at reporting furniture
stores were 12 per cent less than in May but were
11 per cent more than in June, 1946. Inventories
(in dollars) at the end of June were virtually the
same as at the end of the previous month but were
54 per cent higher than on June 30, 1946.
WHOLESALING
N et Sales

Lines o f Com m odities

Groceries

.......— 2

......................... ..

Stocks

June, 1947
June 30, 1947
com pared with
com pared with
M ay, ’ 47
June, '46 June 30, 1946

Data furnished by
Bureau o f Census,
U . S. Dept, o f Com m erce*

.—

4- 2

— 11%
4*14
— 20
- f5 3
4-18
— 3
+59
4- 1
— 3
—. I

........ %
4-20

....

4 -4 6
4*85

....

4 -14
4-37

* Preliminary.
* "Includes certain lines n ot listed above.

CONSTRUCTION
B U IL D IN G P E R M IT S
(M o n th o f June)
N ew Construction
N um ber
(C ost in
1946
1947
thousands)
72
Evansville ........... ..7132
116
176
Louisville ...........
610
Memphis ...........
204
St. L ouis............. ... 253
June

T o t a ls .......

1,177
1,409

Repairs, etc.

C ost
N um ber
1947 1946
1947
1946
$ 382 $ 174 101 219
2,220
612 172 168
1,827
841 107
61
2,912
1,202 177 233
2,043
2,228 305 279
$9,384
$5,370

$5,057
$4,306

862
942

960
891

1947
$ 68
134
70
245
387

C ost
1946
$
96
434
46
180
632

$904
$729

$1,388
$ 839

Page 93

______________________ TRADE______________________
D E PA RTM EN T STORES
Stocks
on Hand

N et Sales

Stock
Turnover

6 mos.
June, 1947
1947 June 30/4 7
Jan. 1, to
com pared with
to same com p, with
June 30,
M ay, *47 June, *46 period *46 June 3 0 /4 6 1947 1946
2.75
1.99
Ft. Smith, A rk ........ — 23% — 20% — 11%
— 10%
3.04
2.32
— 7
—
6
-0 L ittle R ock , A rk ...... — 17
2.75
0
2.19
Q uincy, 111................. — 21
— 10
4- 7
1.78
2.17
Evansville, In d .........
— 9
4- 5
4 - 16
4 - 17
3.32
2.33
+
2
3
L ouisville, K y ............ — 16
4 - 12
4- 6
2.69
1.92
+ 15
St. Louis Area1....... — 20
—
5
4 - 10
2.69
—
6
1.92
+ 14
St. Louis, M o ...... — 20
4- 9
E . St. Louis, 111.. — 20
4 - 96
4 - 75
2.88
+ 17
1.93
— 12
— 4
Springfield, M o .......
4- 3
2.16
3.01
+ 6
Mem phis, Tenn........ — 22
—
3
4- 5
2.83
1.95
— 12
+31
*A11 other cities.......
4- 5
4 - 11
2.03
2.84
—
2
8th F. R. District.... — 19
+12
4- 8
*E1 D orado, Fayetteville, Pine B luff, A r k .; A lton, Harrisburg, Mt.
Vernon, 111.; N ew A lbany, Vincennes, I n d .; Danville, Hopkinsville,
M ayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o .; and Jackson, Tenn.
in c lu d e s St. Louis, M o., East St. Louis and Belleville, 111.
T rading da ys: June, 1947— 2 5 ; M ay, 1947— 2 6 ; June, 1946— 25.
Outstanding orders of reporting stores at the end of June, 1947, were
58 per cent less than on the corresponding date a year ago.
Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding June 1, 1947,
collected during June, by citie s :
Instalm ent E xcl. Instal.
Instalment E x c l Instal.
A ccou n ts
A ccoun ts
A ccounts
Accounts
F ort Smith.............. %
Little R o ck ...... 28
Louisville ........ 31
M emphis ........ 33
IN D E X E S

OF

51%
55
49
46

Q uincy ................ 3 3%
St. L ouis.............. 32
Other cities .... 3G
8th F. R . Dist. 32

DEPARTM ENT

STORE

SALES

AND

8th Federal Reserve District
June, M ay,
1947
1947
Sales (daily average), U nadjusted2............
Sales (daily average), Seasonally adjusted2
Stocks, U nadjusted3 ........... .................. ..........
Stocks, Seasonally adjusted3.........................
2 Daily Average 1 93 5 -3 9= 1 0 0.
8 End of M onth Average 1935-39 = 100.

269
299
267
267

62%
58
56
54

315
321
272
272

STOCKS

April,
1947

June,
1946

297
306
281
281

274
305
222
222

S P E C IA L T Y STO R ES
Stocks
on Hand

N et Sales

Stock
Turnover

6 mos.
June, 1947,
1947
June 30, 1947 Jan. 1, to
com pared with
to same comp, with June 30,
M a y /4 7 Ju n e/46 period *46 June 3 0 /4 6 1947 1946
M en’ s Furnishings...... — 16%
+ 4%
4 - 5%
4 -3 5 %
1.84
3.61
B oots and Shoes........ — 8
— 4
+ 5
+53
2.27
4.37
Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding June 1, 1947,
collected during June:
M en's Furnishings.....................4 9%
B oots and Shoes......................... 45%
Trading d a ys: June, 1947— 2 5 ; M ay, 1947— 2 6; June, 1946— 25.
R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STO RES
N et Sales

Inventories

June, 1947,
June 30, 1947,
Ratio of
com pared with
compared with
Collections
M ay,
June, M ay 31, June 30, June, June,
1947
1946
1947
1946
1947 ,1 9 4 6
St. Louis A rea1.....
— 14% + 1 2 %
43% 45%
-0 -% + 6 9 %
St. Louis .............
— 12
-0+69
44
45
+14
— 9
Louisville A r e a 2 ...
+25
— 3
34
27
+45
Louisville .............
— 12
33
— 5
+42
+21
25
Memphis ....................
— 23
— 27
31
+
3
3
24
+ 1
L ittle R ock ..............
+28
— 1
+31
30
37
+ 5
*
*
*
Springfield ................
*
— 9
+ 12
8th D istrict T otal 3...
— 12
— 1
37
40
+54
+11
*N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in
Eighth D istrict totals.
xIncludes St. Louis, M issou ri; East St. Louis and A lton, Illinois.
2Includes Louisville, K en tu ck y ; and N ew Albany, Indiana.
sIn addition to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, F ort Smith
and Pine Bluff, A rkansas; H enderson, Hopkinsville, Owensboro, K e n ­
tu ck y ; Greenville, Greenwood, M ississippi; Hannibal, M issouri; and
Evansville, Indiana.
PERCENTAGE

D IS T R IB U T IO N

O F F U R N IT U R E

June, 1947
Cash Sales ...........................................
Credit Sales .......................................
Total Sales .......................................

Page 94




20%
80
100

M ay, 1947
21%
79
100

SALES

June, 1946
26%
74
100

B A N K IN G AND F IN A N C E

During the first six months of 1947, Eighth Dis­
trict member bank assets continued the decline
begun in 1946, reflecting the cash redemption of
Government securities and an apparent seasonal
contraction in commercial, industrial and agricul­
tural loans. The decline extended to nearly all
major asset and liability items, the only exceptions
being a continued expansion in real estate and
“ other” loans (mostly consumer), Treasury bonds,
time deposits, borrowings and capital accounts.
There was practically no change in the relative in­
vestment position of district member banks, earn­
ing assets constituting about 75 per cent of total
assets both at the beginning and middle of the year.
The decrease in member bank resources was
greater in reserve city banks than in country banks.
Both loans and Government security holdings of
reserve city banks were lower at mid-year than at
the beginning, the former by $66 million, the latter
by $61 million. But country banks, while ex­
periencing about the same proportionate loss in
Government securities, increased their loans $50
million.
Total loans of Eighth District reporting banks
dropped $43 million during the first half of the
year as compared to a net decrease of $28 million
during the first half of 1946. Commercial, indus­
trial and agricultural loans accounted for most of
the decrease with a decline of $36 million. This
was appreciably less, however, than the $50 million
drop in these types of loans during the same period
last year. The decline in business and agricultural
loans this year was about average and was due
primarily to a seasonal decline in cotton loans.
Commercial, industrial and agricultural loans were
up slightly at each of the reporting centers except
St. Louis and Memphis. A decrease of $39 million
was registered in the Memphis reporting banks
which do a substantial amount of cotton financing.
Loans to others than brokers and dealers for pur­
chasing and carrying securities were off $22 million
in the six months, most of the decrease being at
weekly reporting banks in St. Louis and Louisville.
Loans on real estate increased $13 million, approxi­
mately the same as during the first half of 1946.
Real estate loans were up slightly at all reporting
centers but St. Louis reporting banks accounted
for about three-fourths of the increase. Other
loans, mostly consumer loans, gained only $4 mil­
lion to the end of June as compared to a gain of $25
million in the same period last year. Increases of
$13 million at reporting banks in St. Louis and of
$2 million in Little Rock were largely offset by de­

creases of $9 million and $3 million, respectively, at
Memphis and Louisville.
The decline in investments of district reporting
member banks has been much less during the first
half of 1947 than for the same period of 1946—$48
million instead of $225 million. The total on July 2
was $1,098 million or $272 million below a year
ago. The major influence on member bank invest­
ments this year has been the cash redemption by
the Treasury of $7.7 billion o f Treasury securities
— $2.0 billion of notes, $4.5 billion of certificates and
$1.2 billion of bills. The result has been both a
decline in total investments and some lengthening
of Government security portfolios. On July 2, dis­
trict reporting bank holdings of Treasury certifi­
cates were down $26 million, Treasury notes $23
million and other securities $4 million from six
months earlier. Government bond holdings were
up $5 million. The decrease in short term Govern­
ment holdings and the increase in bonds character­
ized the adjustments in Government security port­
folios at Memphis, Little Rock and Louisville
banks. At Evansville and St. Louis, holdings of
bonds and certificates of indebtedness decreased
and Treasury note holdings increased. St. Louis
reporting banks sold $17 million of Government
bonds and added $8 million of Treasury notes.
The decline of loans and investments in Eighth
District weekly reporting banks was reflected in a
decline in deposits. The decrease, $167 million, was
accounted for mainly by a $119 million reduction
in interbank deposits and a $47 million decline in
Government deposits. The decline in interbank
deposits was about the same as for the first half of
1946 but Government withdrawals from W ar Loan
accounts were much smaller than the $256 million
decline during the same period last year. Demand
deposits of individuals and business firms decreased
only $18 million and time deposits continued to in­
crease, being up $12 million. The pattern of de­
posit change was similar at all reporting centers
except St. Louis where demand deposits of individ­
uals and business firms increased $13 million.
AGRICULTURE
Despite a number of unfavorable conditions a
good crop year is now in prospect for farmers in
the Eighth Federal Reserve District. Flood dam­
age has been severe along the Missouri and upper
Mississippi Rivers, and spring sown crops are two
to three weeks later than normal. Wheat produc­
tion, however, is at a record level and the estimated
reduction in corn production is not as great in this
district as for the nation as a whole. Cotton acre­
age is higher than last year, and the crop is reported
in good condition, generally, throughout the district.




PRICES
W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N IT E D S T A T E S
Bureau o f Labor
M ay, ’ 47 compared with
Statistics
A p r., ’ 47
M ay, ’46
M ay, ’ 47 A pr., ’ 47 M ay, ’ 46
(1926 = 100)
A ll Commodities .... 146.9
Farm Products,.... 175.7
Foods ...............
Other ................

147.7
177.0
162.4
131.8

111.0
137.5
111.5
103.9

— 0.6%
— 0.7
— 1.6
— 0.1

4 -3 2 .3 %
4-27.8
4-43.3
4-26.8

C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X
Bureau of Labor
M ay 15, A pr. 15, M ay 15,
M ay 15, ’47 com p, with
Statistics
1947
1946
A pr. 1 5 ,’ 47
M ay 15, 46
(1935-39 = 100) 1947
4 -18 .5%
— 0.2%
131.5
156.1
United States ..... . 155.8
4-19.3
— 1.3
129.5
155.0
St. Louis ......... . 154.5
*
*
*
*
Memphis ...........
*N ot available.
R E T A IL F O O D P R IC E S
Bureau of Labor
,
,
Statistics
June 15,
M ay 15,
June 15, June 15, ’47 Comp, with
(1935-39 = 100) 1947
1947
1946
M ay 15, 47 June 15, 46
4 -3 1 %
145.6
4- 2%
187.6
U . S. (51 cities) 190.5
4-34
147.4
193.4
4- 2
St. L ouis.......... 196.8
4-36
139.1
188.1
4* 1
Little R o ck ...... 189.8
4-35
135.6
180.0
4- 2
Louisville ........ 183.4
4-34
153.6
4- 2
201.6
205.1

BANKING

C H A N G E S IN P R I N C I P A L A S S E T S A N D L I A B I L I T I E S
F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
Change from
July 16,
June 18,
July 17,
(I n thousands o f dollars)
1947
1947
1946
Industrial advances under Sec. 13b......$ ............... $
........ $
.................
Other advances and rediscounts..........
12,104
—
99
641
-4- 34,001
4 - 30,795
U. S. securities........................................... 1,100,786
Total earning assets.............................. 1,112,890

4 - 33,902

4 - 30,1 $4

Total reserves.............................................
619,050
T otal d ep osits.............................................
650,475
F. R. notes in circulation....................... 1,075,206

44 - 41,037
4*
953

4-

-0 -

—

Industrial commitments under Sec. 13b

400

"h
Jf,679
4 - 18,060
3,200

P R IN C IP A L A SSET S A N D L IA B IL IT IE S
W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S
(In Thousands o f D ollars)
Change from
July 16,
June 18,
July 17,
Assets
1947
1947
1946
T otal loans and investments............. .......$2,013,904 $— 18,404 $— 185,386
(Comm ercial, industrial, and agricul­
tural loans, open market p a p er)........
425,596 4 - 4,983 4 - 98,480
Loans to brokers and dealers in se­
curities ..........................................................
8,605 4 - 2,848 —
3,652
Other loans to purchase and carry se­
curities .......... ..................... ..........................
48,306 —
8,924
41,779
Real estate loans..........................................
129,340 4 - 1,936 4 - 33,782
Loans to banks................................................
1,529 —
854 —
612
Other loans........................................................
161,578 4 - 6,134 4 - 32,548
Total lo a n s ....................................................
774,954 4 - 6,123 4-113,767
Treasury bills............... ......... ..........................
10,215 — 8,347 — 9,400
Certificates of indebtedness.........................
89,135 —
9,278 — 145,593
Treasury n o t e s ............... ................... ............
135,058 —
810 — 98,765
U. S. bonds including guaranteed obliga­
tions ...............................................................
860,928 — 4,808 — 36,340
Other securities...............................................
143,614 —
1,284 — 14,055
Total investm ents...................................... 1,238,950 — 24,527 — 304,153
Cash assets........................................................
731,176 4 - 21,213 4 - 21,794
Other assets............................................. ........
23,198 —
125 —
1,028
T otal assets ............................ ...... ............... 2,768,278 4 - 2,684 — 164,620
Liabilities
Demand deposits— total .............................. $2,107,487 $4- 1,099 $— 202,678
Individuals, partnerships, and corpora­
tions .............................................. ............ 1,398,313 4 56 4-103,808
Interbank demand deposits.....................
580,028 4 - 2,051 — 75,583
U . S. Government deposits.....................
20,468 4 - 3,882 — 235,968
Other demand d ep o sits............................
108,678 — 4,890 4 - 5,065
Demand deposits— adjusted*....................... 1,286,372 — 27,115 4 - 79,399
Tim e deposits....................................................
471,809 4 - 2,573 4 - 27,179
B orrow ings .....................................................
10,830 4 140 4 - 2,765
Other liabilities........... ....................................
14,359 —
825 —
893
Total capital accounts..................................
163,793 —
303 4 - 9,007
Total liabilities and capital accounts...... 2,768,278 4- 2,684 — 164,620
*
Other than interbank and Governm ent deposits, less cash items on
hand or in process o f collection.

Page 95

The July 1 figures on planted acreage and esti­
mated production of corn reflect the relatively bet­
ter crop condition in the district. Compared with
1946, a 2 per cent reduction in acreage in this area
and a 19 per cent decline in output, contrast with a
5 per cent reduction in acreage and a 21 per cent
drop in production for the nation. Largest produc­
tion decreases in the district are forecast for Illi­
nois (21 per cent), Indiana (25 per cent), and
Missouri (21 per cent). Smaller declines are ex­
pected in Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas, and
a 10 per cent increase is probable for Mississippi.
The July 1 condition of the corn crop in district
portions of Illinois and Indiana was better than
their respective state averages. Besides, counties
in the district portions of these states are normally
favored with a growing season one to two weeks
longer than counties outside the district. This
should permit a larger proportion of late-planted
corn to mature. Weather since the July 1 crop
report was released has been favorable and corn
production estimates for July 15 were increased
from July 1 estimates by 158 million bushels.
E S T IM A T E D

C O R N A C R E A G E A N D P R O D U C T I O N IN
E IG H T H D IS T R IC T STATE S
(I n thousands)
July 1, 1947

Change from

Production
July 1, 1946
A v . July 1, 1936-45
Acres
(bushels) Acres Production Acres Production
Arkansas .......... . 1,340
Illinois ...............,. 9,024
Indiana ............ 4,331
Kentucky .......... . 2,179
Mississippi
,. 2,298
Missouri ........... .. 4,386
Tennessee ....... . 2,189
District States ,. .25,747
United

States.. ..84,331

29,480
406,080
173,240
71,907
40,215
135,966
61,292

— 9%
- 0 — 5
— 3
4 -4
—6
- 0 -

— 5%
— 21
— 25
— 12
+ 10
— 21
— 7
— 19

— 32%
+ 8
4- 1
— 15
— 19
4- 1
— 16
— 4

— 1 3%
+ 7
— 7
+ 8
— 11
+15
— 3
+ 3

918,180

—2

2,612,809

— 5

— 21

—

—

6

1

Even though the July 1 estimated 1947 corn crop
in district states is considerably lower than last
year’s record crop, it is 3 per cent above the ten-

year, 1936-45, average. Nationally, a drop of 1 per
cent from the ten-year average is indicated.
Total grain supplies on hand July 1, plus prospec­
tive production for 1947 as of July 15, are 3 per cent
less than last year, but are 13 per cent above the
1936-45 average. Reduced to a corn equivalent
basis, there is expected to be available 727 million
bushels more in 1947 than the average for 1936-45.
However, 1947 supply will be 162 million bushels
(corn equivalent) less than in 1946. With antici­
pated large exports of wheat, considerable com­
petition can be expected for available grain. Total
hay production is estimated to be 3 per cent above
the 1946 crop and 11 per cent above the 1936-45 av­
erage, which will permit considerable substitution
of hay for grain in livestock feed.
E S T I M A T E D G R A IN S U P P L Y , U N IT E D S T A T E S , 1947
1947*

______Change from______

(million pounds)
Corn (56 l b s ./b u .) ............................. ~... 193,682**
W heat (60 l b s ./b u .) .................................
88,560
48,212
Oats (32 l b s ./b u .) ...................................
Barley (48 lb s ./b u .) ..............................
13,674
Rye (56 l b s ./b u .) ......................................
1,412

1946*

A v . 1936-45*

— 9%
4-2 3
— 16
4 -8
4-35

4- 5%
4 -3 6
+20
— 1
— 33

Total .................................................... 345,540
^~3
* Includes carry-over July 1.
** July 15 indicated production plus carry-over July 1.

+13

Cotton acreage in district states is expected to be
10 per cent greater in 1947 than in 1946, but this
gain is smaller than the 18 per cent increase fore­
cast for the entire country. In the district in­
creases in planted acreage over 1946 vary from
38 per cent in Missouri to 3 per cent in Mississippi.
E S T IM A T E D C O T T O N A C R E A G E , E IG H T H D IS T R IC T S T A T E S
Acreage

____________________Change from

July 1, 1947
July 1, 1946
(Thousands (Thousand?
of acres)
of acres) (P e r ce n t)
Mississippi ........... 2,420
+
71
+ 3 %
Arkansas ................ 2,070
4 - 341
+20
Tennessee .............
665
+
40
+ 6
Missouri ..................
440
+
122
+38
District States...... 5,595
+
574
+10
United S ta te s ...... 21,389
+ 3 ,1 9 9
+18

A v . July 1, 1936-45
(Thousands
_ o f acres)
(P ercen t)
—
—
—
+

226
50
71
36

—

311

— 9%
— 2
— 10
+ 9
—

— 3,128

6

— 13

AGRICULTURE

DEBITS TO DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS

C A S H F A R M IN C O M E
June,
M ay,
( I n thousands
June,
June, *47 comp, with
of dollars)
1947
1947
1946
M ay, *47 June, '46
IJI Dorado, A rk... .$
+35%
17,058 $
13,238
17,825 $
+ 4%
— 17
F ort Smith, Ark..
32,481
31,033
39,303
+ 5
5,271
5,166
Helena, A rk ..............
+ 2
4-16
4,525
Little R ock, Ark.. .
102,321
102,302
90,787
-0 +13
Pine Bluff, Ark...,
18,895
18,898
19,007
- 0— 1
Texarkana, A rk.-Tex.:.
8,351
8,529
8,336
— 2
- 021,981
20,473
A lton, 111.........
+15
19,051
4- 7
3$. S t.!,.-N a t. S. Y.,III..
107,018
101,656
62,724
+ 5
4-71
25,013
27,309
Quincy, 111.........
— 8
21,634
+16
EJvansville, Ind..
90,867
91,327
76,045
— 1
+19
Louisville, K y....
.
456,711
425,387
+ 7
404,461
+13
O w ensboro, K y ..
20,814
20,616
20,268
+ 1
+ 3
Paducah, K y ......
15,370
13,414
12,289
+15
+25
Greenville, Miss,
12,673
12,625
12,406
- 0+ 2
Cape Girardeau,
8,626
9,672
7,735
+ 12
—11
H annibal, M o ............
6,552
6,563
5,875
- 0+ 12
Jefferson City, M
36,217
39,144
29,129
— 7
+24
St. Louis, M o.... . 1,340,059 1,259,948 1,202,051
+ 6
+ 11
Sedalia, M o ..........
9,844
9,807
8,327
- 0+18
Springfield, M o....
53,823
51,464
45,952
+ 5
+17
Jackson, T enn......
14,632
14,995
— 2
+16
12,611
— 4
Memphis, Tenn. . .
361,383
375,987
323,178
+12
,$2,766,727 $2,663,373 $2,438,932

Page 96




4- 4

4-13

(I n thousands
M ay,
of dollars)
1947
Arkansas ........$ 23,14 4
Illinois ............ 142,260
Indiana ............
77,754
Kentucky ^ ........ 26,160
Mississippi ...... 17,183
Missouri .......... 69,393
Tennessee ........ 28,404
T otal ............ $384,298
R E C E IP T S A N D

S H IP M E N T S A T
Receipts

12 mo. total June to M ay
’ 46-’ 47 Comp, with
>46-’47 ’45-’46
*44-’45
$ 499,451 + 7 3 %
+39%
1,622,211 + 3 8
+43
885,046 + 2 9
+35
472,583 + 2 3
+13
_ 4
339,784 + 1 6
959,501 + 4 0
+34
455,768 + 4 3
+36
$5,234,344 + 3 7
+32
N A T IO N A L

STOCK YA R D S
Shipments

June,

Change from

June,

Change from

1947

M a y ,’ 47 June,’ 46

1947

M a y,’ 47 June,*46

Cattle and C alves..l67,280
H ogs ....................... 239,477
Sheep

M ay, *47,
com p, with
Apr.,
M ay,
1947
1946
+ 19% + 4 2 %
+ 35
4- 1
+31
4- 4
+36
4-21
+29
+33
+45
4- 6
+35
+39
+ 8
+37

..................... 132,347

+ 21 %
+ 8
— 41
4-27

— 89
— 20

4-16

+

+

24%

+210

40

79,814
75,024
923
80,729

+28%

— 34%

— 41
4-16

— 89
— 12

236,490

4-21

—

+21

+102

8