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Monthly m April, 1953 1 9 5 3 Volume X X X V w Number 4 r u r v e y or D e p o s it O w n e r s h i p S The 1953 Survey of Deposit Ownership in the Eighth Dis trict shows significant increases in demand deposits of (1) individuals, (2) financial concerns, and (3) nonprofit organi zations. On the other hand, it shows that farmers drew down bank balances and business concerns lost ground relative to the total of surveyed deposits. On the basis of geographic divisions, deposit growth yearend to year-end was shared in by all but two of the thirteen survey areas — Springfield and an Indiana-Kentucky area. Substantial growth was recorded for Evansville and in the area around Paducah. Over-all, there was little difference between metropolitan and rural deposit growth rates. M e mber Bank Earnings and Expenses 1952 was a year of all-time highs for Eighth District mem ber banks in earnings, expenses, and net current earnings from operations. Total incoming funds subject to disposition by bank management (net current earnings plus recoveries and reserve adjustments) reached $70.5 million. Income taxes took the biggest share of these incoming funds. Stock holders received a lesser proportion and a smaller amount remained to strengthen capital accounts. Losses and chargeoffs were high in dollar amount. Fede B an k o f St. Louis The 1953 Survey o f Deposit Ownership in the Eighth District shows significant increases in demand deposits o f ( 1 ) individuals, • . . "T \E P O SITS in the Eighth Federal Reserve District have undergone significant changes in ownership and volume during the past year. These changes reflect many of the trends felt by business and agriculture and thus shed further light on the district economy and its relationship to the banking community. The 1953 Survey of Deposit Ownership was con ducted by the Federal Reserve System with the cooperation of member and nonmember banks. It covers demand deposit holdings of individuals, part nerships, and corporations (about three-fifths of all demand and time deposits) within the Eighth District. The most significant change in deposit ownership disclosed by the 1953 Survey was the growth in personal deposits, other than farmers’. Individuals had more “ cash in the bank” and a larger share of the demand deposits surveyed than last year. Growth in these deposits exceeded $100 million and amounted to 7 per cent in the year period. During the previous survey year these deposits increased much less and lost ground relative to the total. Generally, personal savings channeled into the bank ing system take the form of time deposits. This year’s expansion suggests that a part of the con tinued high level of personal saving in the district took the form of additions to demand, as well as to time, deposits. In fact the percentage increase in personal demand deposits (other than farmers’) at all banks in the district exceeded slightly the per centage gain in time deposits at all district member banks— 7 per cent as compared with 6 per cent. . • . ( 2 ) financial concerns9 . . . Deposits of financial concerns increased about $33 million (12 per cent) over the survey year and accounted for a somewhat larger proportion of the total in the 1953 pattern than in 1952. This growth, like that of individuals’ demand deposits, is probably related to the continued high level of personal sav ing, particularly in the form of life insurance pay ments (net) and purchases of shares in savings and loan companies and credit unions. It also reflects increased activity on the part of sales finance companies. . . . and ( 3 ) nonprofit organizations. Nonprofit organizations, such as hospitals, com munity chests, and religious organizations, ex panded their deposit holdings, absolutely and as a share of the total of surveyed deposits. The increase in these deposits, amounting to $18 million (about Page 38 10 per cent), reflects the growth in personal incomes and, to some extent, the higher effective tax rates in 1952 over 1951, which encouraged giving. On the other hand, it shows that farm ers drew down bank balances . • • Counter-balancing these expansions in deposit holdings and in the proportionate shares of the total of deposits, there were two important downward movements over the survey period. The more im portant of the two came in farmers’ deposits. Farmers had less money on deposit with banks January 31, 1953, than they did a year earlier. The 1953 estimates show a decline in farmers’ deposits of $9 million over the year period, and a shrinkage of nearly one full percentage point in farmers’ share of the total. The decline in farmers’ deposits is not surprising in view of the drop in prices received and the pricecost squeeze suffered by agriculture during 1952. The moderateness of the decline— a little over one per cent— suggests that greater output on district farms helped alleviate the burden in many cases despite flood and drouth damage in certain areas. . • . and business concerns lost ground relative to the total o f surveyed deposits. Deposits of nonfinancial business concerns were off with regard to the pattern of ownership, although up from the level of the previous survey by some $45 million. The significant contraction in relation to the total of deposits came in the trade category and appeared to be influenced by the less-than-usual volume of cotton financing by banks at Memphis during the last quarter of 1952. Net repayments of trade loans, particularly in the wholesale field were probably influential too. The decline in the percentage share of manufacturing and mining concerns is larger than that shown for trade accounts but is partly the result of changes in the sample of reporting banks. The broad changes in patterns of ownership of deposits shown by the 1953 Survey contrast with those indicated by the previous one. Then, the increase in deposits over the year period favored business and farmers. During the 1953 Survey year, as has been noted, the growth in deposits flowed chiefly to individuals and financial institutions. Busi ness concerns got some of the increase, but lost ground in terms of their share of total deposits. And farmers’ deposits were actually reduced. The patterns of ownership established by the survey for January 31, 1953, and January 31, 1952, together with the change between these two dates and those of a year ago are shown in Table I. TABLE I O W N E R S H IP O F D E M A N D D E P O S IT S O F IN D IV ID U A L S , P A R T N E R S H IP S A N D C O R P O R A T IO N S A ll Banks in E ighth Federal Reserve District <Dollar amounts in millions) January, 1953 Am ount Per Cent January, 1952 A m ount Per Cent Corporate business............................. Noncorporate business..................... To ta l business....................................... $1,479.3 839.5 2,318.8 Nonfinancial...................................... M anufacturing and mining.. Public utilities............................ Trade............................................... Other nonfinancial.................... 2,006.4 644.4 219.5 868.6 273.9 40.8 13.1 4.4 17.7 5.6 1,960.5 645.4 203.0 851.6 260.5 Financial............................................. Insurance companies................ A ll other financial..................... 312.4 80.7 231.7 6.4 1.7 4.7 T rust funds of banks....................... Foreign..................................................... Nonprofit.................................................. Personal.................................................... Farmers................................................ Other.................................................... . 56.2 ** 1.1 * 201.2 2,337.5 659.2 1,678.3 4.1 47.6 13.4 34.2 T otal.................................................. $4,913.7 3 0 .1 % 17.1 47.2 $1,403.2 837.0 2,240.2 10 0 .0 % + + + 3% 16 7 + 2 - 0+ 8 + 2 + 5 + 133.8 + 23.8 + 4.9 + 82.2 + 22.9 + + + + + 7 4 2 11 10 32.7 16.2 16.5 + + + 12 25 8 + — + + — + 8 1 11 1.3 ** + 2 76.1 2.5 78.6 + 5% - 0+ 4 41.6 13.7 4.3 18.1 5.5 + — + + + 45.9 1.0 16.5 17.0 13.4 279.7 64.5 215.2 5.9 1.4 4.5 + + + 54.9 0.1 183.5 2,234.0 668.5 1,565.5 1.2 * + 3.9 47.4 14.2 33.2 1 0 0 .0 % Change Jan. ’ 51 - Jan. '52 Per Cent Am ount $ + 38.7 + 116.4 + 155.1 $+ + + $4,712.7 2 9 .8 % 17.7 47.5 Change Jan. ’ 52 - Jan. *53 Am ount Per Cent + "io + 17.7 + 103.5 — 9.3 + 112.8 + — + 5 1 7 $ + 201.0 + 4% 21.3 0.8 22.1 — 0.1 — 0.2 + 14.1 + 101.2 + 43.4 + 57.8 $ + 270.1 - 0+ *"*8 + 5 + 7 + 4 + 6% *L ess than 0 .0 5 % **L ess than $100,000 On th e b a sis o f g e o g r a p h i c d iv is io n s , d e p o s it g r o w th y e a r -e n d to y e a r - e n d w a s s h a r e d in b y a ll b u t tw o o f t h e th ir te e n s u r v e y a rea s— S p r in g fie ld a n d a n In d ia n a -K en tu ck y a r ea . Another way in which the data have been an alyzed in this and previous surveys is in terms of geographic areas.1 The growth in deposit volume during 1952 was shared by all but two of the thirteen survey areas comprising the Eighth Dis trict and was about equally divided between the group of metropolitan and the group of rural areas. The two areas with virtually no deposit growth from year-end 1951 to year-end 1952 were Area V I, metropolitan Springfield, and Area IX, southeast ern Indiana and eastern district-Kentucky. Spring field, the new addition to metropolitan areas in the district according to Census definition, has the lowest proportion of income payments to individuals T A B L E II C H A N G E S IN D E M A N D D E P O S IT S O F IN D IV ID U A L S , P A R T N E R S H IP S A N D C O R P O R A T IO N S A ll Banks in Eighth Federal Reserve D istrict B y Areas* (D ollar amounts in millions) I II Ill IV V VI V II V III IX X XI X II X III Change from 1945 to 1952 A m ount Per Cent St. Louis............................ . .. $ + Louisville............................... .. + M em phis................................ ... + Little R ock........................... ... + Evansville............................. ... + Springfield............................ .. + 570.0 127.3 114.4 36.3 40.2 11.8 Total— Metropolitan A reas...... .. $ + Corn Belt Farm ing........... .. $ + Coal, Chemicals and Oil..... + Tobacco and Livestock... + Ozark R egion...................... .. + Lum ber and O il................. .... + Delta Cotton and Rice.... ... + Cotton and Livestock...... ., + Total— Rural Areas.......... .. $ + Total— D istrict.................. .. + + + + + + 64% 47 59 49 62 28 $+ + + + + + 64.2 16.1 10.2 8.0 17.1 0.2 900.0 + 59% $+ 115.8 + 5% 167.2 111.4 53.0 40.7 31.3 97.8 37.8 + + + + + + + 35% 28 20 13 23 39 14 $+ + + + + + + 21.7 37.9 1.2 12.5 8.1 11.4 17.2 + + - 0 + + + + 3% 8 4 5 3 6 539.2 + 26% $+ 110.0 + 4% $ + 1,439.2 + 39% $+ 225.8 + 5% * Areas are newly defined as described in the text. Change from 1951 to 1952 Am ount Per Cent + + + + + -0 5% 4 3 8 20 - arising from labor and the highest proportion aris ing from farm proprietorship of any of the district’s six metropolitan areas. Area IX, designated the Tobacco and Livestock Area, has relatively little industrial development except along the Ohio River and was hit by the agricultural price decline and by the drouth in 1952. S u b sta n tia l g r o w t h w as r e c o r d e d f o r E van sville a n d in t h e a r ea a r o u n d P a d u ca h . The sharpest rate of increase occurred in metro politan Evansville and reflected improved indus trial activity and employment levels there in 1952 as compared with a year earlier. The top rate of growth (8 per cent) among non-metropolitan areas came in Area V III, the coal and oil producing region of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky which embraces the large industrial development along the Ohio River centering around Paducah. O ver-a ll , t h e r e w a s little d i f fe r e n c e b e tw e e n m e tr o p o lita n a n d ru r a l d e p o s it g r o w th r a tes . Notwithstanding the variations in percentage gains over the year 1952 as between areas, the rural areas as a group gained 4 per cent, very close to the 5 per cent gain for metropolitan areas, with the slight decline in farmers’ deposits helping explain the secondary position of rural area growth. The l Th e deposit areas are now combinations of economic areas of the Bureau of the Census. A t the same time, the new areas are closely related to those previously used, which combined counties partly by similarity in deposit growth from 1941-43, partly by trade channels, and partly by production characteristics. The new deposit areas are also related to production regions and revised income areas defined by this B ank (September, 1952, M on th ly R ev ie w ) f The 13 deposit areas are now composed of 6 metropolitan and^ 7 other areas. T h e metropolitan areas a re: St. L ouis, Louisville, M em phis, Little R ock, Evansville, and Springfield. The other 7 can be identified according to the following brief and broadly descriptive n a m e s: Area V I I Corn Belt Farm ing Area V I I I Coal, Chemicals, and O il Area I X Tobacco and Livestock Area X Ozark Region A rea X I Lum ber and Oil Area X I I Delta Cotton and Rice Area X I I I Cotton and Livestock Page 39 TREND OF DEPOSITS, 1945-1952, BY AREAS DEMAND DEP OS IT S OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS IN THE EIGHTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (ALL BANKS) VER TIC A L SC AL E OF ALL LI NE EQUAL D I S T A N C E S REPRESENT CHANGES IN D E P O S I T S TABLE III— D E M A N D (Dollar amounts in millions) I II III IV V VI V II. V III IX X XI X II X III St. Louis............ ................................'...... Louisville................................................... M em phis..................................................... Little R ock............................................... .Evansville.................................................. Springfield...... .......................................... Total— Metropolitan A reas.............. Corn B elt Farm ing............................. Coal, Chemicals and O il................... Tobacco and Livestock..................... Ozark R tg io n .......................................... Lum ber and O il.................................... Delta Cotton and Rice..................... Cotton and Livestock.......................... Total— Rural A reas............................. Total— D istrict....................................... * Areas are newly defined as described in Page 40 CHARTS EQUAL IS L O GA RI TH M IC PER CE N TA GE D E P O S IT S O F A ll Banks Dec. 31, 1945 $ 891.2 271.1 194.0 74.6 64.5 41,8 $1,537.2 $ 482.3 400.9 270.7 301.7 133.4 247.6 273.5 $2,110.1 $3,647.3 the text. IN D IV ID U A L S , D IS T R I C T P A R T N E R S H IP S AND in Eighth Federal Reserve District B y Areas* D ec. 31, D ec. 31, Dec. 31, D ec. 31, 1949 1946 1947 1948 $1,180.9 $1,034.8 $1,142.0 $1,138.3 311.6 301.8 320.4 323.9 . 234.2 264.8 261.8 258.8 88.0 80.1 84.1 84.8 68.3 80.9 81.0 79.5 45.0 46.2 46.5 43.7 $1,971.2 $1,765.4 $1,935.8 $1,929.0 $ 558.8 $ 552.8 $ 578.2 $ 565.7 430.5 430.9 452.2 445.8 289.0 292.2 309.8 306.8 327.7 287.4 300.2 311.5 144.2 138.1 149.8 143.3 310.9 304.7 330.1 321.7 294.6 298.3 271.3 300.0 $2,292.1 $2,396,7 $2,341.0 $2,416.7 $4,106.4 $4,325.7 $4,263.3 $4,352.5 METROPOLITAN RURAL C O R P O R A T IO N S D ec. 31, 1950 $1,324.6 3519 295.6 95.7 84.1 50.0 $2,201.9 $ 585.6 426.2 287.1 297.9 154.1 333.4 271.8 $2,356.1 $4,558.0 D ec. 31, 1951 $1,397.0 382.3 298.2 102.9 87.6 53.4 $2,321.4 $ 627.8 474.4 322.5 329.9 156.6 334.0 294.1 $2,539.3 $4,860.7 D ec. 31, 1952 $ 1,461.2 398.4 308.4 110.9 104.7 53.6 $2,437.2 $ 649.5 512.3 323.7 342.4 164.7 345.4 311.3 $2,649.3 $5,086.5 nearly uniform rate of growth for metropolitan and rural, areas is in contrast with the change over the full seven-year period from 1945 to 1952* Over the longer period, as Table III and the small insert charts in connection with the map show, growth in deposit volume has been considerably faster at the metropolitan areas than at the rural ones, meas 111 W illia m N orm a B. J. A b b o t t , Jr. L y n c h ember Bank Earnings and Expenses 1952 w as a y e a r o f a ll-tim e h ig h s f o r E igh th D istrict m e m b e r bank s in e a r n in g s . . . E of Eighth District member banks moved I NCOM up in 1952 to the highest level in history. The growth in income resulted from enlarged resources and higher rates of return. Resources continued to expand in 1952 and at the end of the year amounted to $6.3 billion. Com pared with the $5.9 billion of total resources at the close of 1951, this was an increase of almost 6 per cent. In the use of these funds district member bankers followed rather closely the pattern of the previous year. They invested 38.8 per cent of total assets in United States Government securities and 7.3 per cent in other securities, the same percentages as in 1951. They made loans equalling 27.7 per cent of total assets, just a shade less than last year.1 In addition to enlarged resources, higher rates obtained on both investments and loans were an important factor in the increase in earnings. The average interest rate rose on Government securities from 1.79 per cent in 1951 to 1.92 per cent in 1952, on other securities from 2.49 per cent to 2.60 per cent, and on loans from 5.64 to 5.82 per cent. The larger dollar volume of earning assets, coupled with higher rates of return, brought district member bankers the largest earnings of record, $153 million. This total topped by $16 million the pre vious high reached in 1951. 1 Ratios used in this article are from the annual study of operating ratios made by this Bank. A sset and liability volumes used as bases or denominators in com puting the ratios are averages of items reported in the December 3 1 , 1951, June 30, 1952, and September 5, 1952, reports of condition. Earnings and expense items were for the calendar year 1952. R atios are arithmetic averages of individual ratios of 489 member banks. Ratios computed in this way differ in some instances from ratios computed from aggregate dollar amounts. Averages of individual ratios are useful primarily to those interested in studying the financial results of oper ations of individual banks. Copies of the operating ratio report m ay be obtained from the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of S t. Louis. uring the return flow of funds to the cities after the scattering' that took place during W orld W ar II years. The nearly uniform growth during 1952 sug gests that this war-time geographical disturbance of deposit holdings has been adjusted. . . • ex p e n s e s , . • . At the same time, rising operating costs pushed expenses to a new peak of $90 million in 1952, an increase of $9 million over the year before. Thus, over half of the $16 million gain in operating earn ings went to pay mounting expenses. Interest paid on time deposits during 1952 ab sorbed a larger percentage of earnings than in 1951, while salaries and other expenses accounted for a smaller share. The average interest rate paid to depositors of time money was increased from the .98 per cent paid in 1951 to 1.02 per cent. . . . a n d n e t c u r r e n t ea r n in g s fr o m o p e r a tio n s . As a result of the expansion of earnings and the lesser increase in expenses, net current earnings for 1952 also increased, reaching $63 million—-the high est of record. Net current earnings represented 1.11 per cent of total assets of district member banks in 1952 compared with 1.06 per cent in the previous year. Measured against capital accounts these earn ings were 15.7 per cent in 1952 and 15.0 per cent the year before. T otal in c o m in g fu n d s s u b je c t to d is p o s itio n b y bank m a n a g e m e n t ( n e t c u r r e n t e a r n in g s p lu s r e c o v e r i e s a n d r e s e r v e a d ju s tm e n ts ) r e a c h e d $7 0 .5 m illio n • Analysis of bank earnings and expenses over a year period is not complete with consideration of the factors affecting net current earnings alone. Certain charge-offs and recoveries, as well as addi tions to reserve accounts and withdrawals from previously established reserves, should be taken into account in determining the amount of funds that bank managements had at their disposal. A picture of the gross sources and uses of district member bank funds for the years 1949 through 1952 is pre sented in the table on the next page. Page 41 B A N K M A N A G E M E N T O F N E T C U R R E N T E A R N IN G S P L U S O T H E R IN C O M IN G F U N D S A N D P R E V IO U S L Y S>ET-ASIDE R E S E R V E S * (E igh th District M em ber B anks) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. (Thousands of D ollars) 1949 Sources of Incom ing Funds Earnings ..................................... ... $113,500 t«ess Expenses..............;..*.. 69,109 N et Current Earnings........... 44,391 Recoveries and Profits Credited to Incom e.............. 5,160 Recoveries Credited to Reserves .................................... 632 Transfers from Reserves to Incom e (Release of re serves previously set aside to cover possible losses).... 1,200 Portion of Reserves called into U se during Year (N e t reduction in previously setaside r e s e r v e s : line 10 minus line 5 ............................ 1,217 Total Incom ing Funds........... $ 52,600 U ses of Funds Losses and Charge-offs M ade against Incom e......... $ 6,010 Losses Charged to Reserves 1,849 Additions to Reservts from Income ...................................... 6,755 Additions to Capital A c c o u n ts ........... ........................ 17,256 10,703 Taxes on N et Incom e.............. 10,027 Total Uses of Funds..... . $ 52,600 1950 1951 1952 $124,528 74,339 $137,126 81,052 $152,900 89,919 50,189 56,074 63,081 4,374 3,601 3,255 556 540 974 678 825 806 979 2,271 2,444 $ 56,776 $ 63,311 $ 70,560 $ $ $ 5,103 1,535 8,733 2,811 9,446 3,418 5,484 5,202 4,928 19,658 11,275 13,721 16,816 11,850 17,899 $ 63,311 17,809 12,942 22,017 $ 56,776 $ 70,560 * Includes only reserves for bad debt losses on loans, and valuation reserves on loans and securities. Item 3 of the table shows net current earnings, and items 4 through 7 the additional sources of income. As indicated in items 4 and 5, profits and recov eries of previous losses and charge-offs were $4.2 million. O f this amount, $3.3 million was credited to income (item 4), and less than $1 million was credited directly to reserves (item 5). Transfers of $800,000 were made from reserves to income (item 6) and there was a net reduction in previously setaside reserves of $2.4 million (item 7). W ith these additions incoming funds totaled $70.5 million in 1952, about 10 per cent more than in the year before. I n c o m e tax es to o k t h e b i g g e s t s h a r e o f th e s e in c o m in g fu n d s . Income taxes paid by district member banks took the biggest share of incoming funds in 1952. This was also true in 1951, but was not the case in prior years. In 1949 income taxes of $10 million (item 14) were smaller than the amounts of either dividends or additions to capital. In 1950 income taxes of $13.7 million exceeded dividends but were still less than the amount added to capital accounts. By 1951 income taxes of $17.9 million exceeded by $1 million the additions made to capital, surpass ing by $6 million the amount of cash dividends. In 1952 the $22 million tax bill was $4.2 million more than the amount added to capital and $9.1 million above dividends. When 1952 totals are compared with those of the prewar year of 1939, the increase in income taxes stands out even more. Additions to capital in 1952 Page 42 were two and one-half times those of 1939, dividends were just over two times, but income taxes were more than ten times their prewar amount. S to ck h o ld er s r e c e i v e d a le s s e r p r o p o r t io n . . . There has been a steady though small decline in the percentage of total funds going to stock holders as cash dividends. In 1949 and 1950, cash dividends were 20 per cent of total incoming funds, in 1951 they were 19 per cent, and in 1952 they were 18 per cent. W hile dividends were losing ground percentagewise, they were increasing in dollar amount. Stockholders received $12.9 million in cash dividends in 1952, an increase of $1 million over 1951, and a gain of $2 million over 1949 (item 13). Dividends computed against total capital accounts reflected an earning rate of 3.0 per cent in 1952, down slightly from the 3.1 per cent in 1951. • • • a n d a s m a lle r a m o u n t r e m a in e d to s t r e n g t h e n ca p ita l a c c o u n t s . As deposits increase, good banking practice re quires that capital structures backing these deposits be increased also. Capital structures were increased in 1952 by $17.8 million (item 12). This amount just maintained relative proportions. Capital accounts were 7.3 per cent of total assets in both 1952 and 1951, and 8.0 per cent of total deposits in both years. L osses a n d c h a r g e - o ffs w e r e h ig h in d o lla r a m o u n t • Tw o other uses of funds are shown in the table, actual losses and charge-offs, and additions to reserves to cover potential bad debt losses. Actual losses and charge-offs are made against income or against previously established reserves. In 1952 district member banks charged the largest dollar volume of losses in the four-year period directly against income— $9.4 million (item 9). Losses charged against reserves were $3.4 million, also the highest in the period shown in the table (item 10). As a protection against potential losses and for income tax purposes district member banks trans ferred $4.9 million to reserves (item l l ) . 1 E. F rancis D eV os C a t h e r in e P assiglia 1 The building in reserves for potential losses has been m ost marked since the income tax law was clarified in 1947. U nder the law banks are allowed for tax purposes to use an average experience factor for the determination of the ratio of losses to outstanding loans. The ratios of losses (or recoveries) for each of the last twenty years, including the taxable year, are averaged to obtain the experience factor. The per centage so obtained, applied to loans outstanding at the close of the taxable year, determines the amount which may be taken as a deduction in the bank’s income tax return for that year. Continued deductions from tax able income will be allowed only in such amounts as will bring the accumu lated total of the reserve account at the close of any taxable year to an amount not exceeding three times the m oving average loss-ratio applied to outstanding loans. For all member banks in the Eighth District the twenty-year average loss-ratio (1931-195 0, the latest dates for which all-bank experience is available) was 0.51 per cent of outstanding loans. O n this basis and excluding certain recovery credits, the m aximum amount of reserves that district banks could carry would be 1.53 per cent (three times 0.51 per cent) of outstanding loans. This percentage is larger than the loss-ratio in 18 of the 20 years. In 1933 the ratio was 3.17 per cent and in 1934 it was 2.60 per cent. Survey of Current Conditions A K IN G income tax settlement problems in its stride, the Eighth District economy increased its activity slightly during February and the first half of March (after allowance for expected sea sonal differences). Manufacturing activity and em ployment increased in February over the previous month and both were substantially larger than a year earlier. Construction activity continued at a high level, although contracts awarded for the first two months failed to show as much improvement over a year ago as nationally. Consumers, generally in a confident frame of mind as to their own financial prospects, purchased more goods in February than in January, taking seasonal experience into account. Bank loans to individuals and business, after shrink ing some in February, increased in the first week of March. Deposits (except interbank) increased, with time deposits gaining nearly twice their aver age increase in February, and the rate of turnover of deposits expanded. The moderateness and direction of price changes in this period were significant. Price controls were removed during February and early March, but only a few prices increased. Retail food prices, in fact, continued to decline in February, dropping 1 per cent between January 26 and March 2 largely as a result of the decline in beef prices. Over-all living costs also declined in the month. At the same time, the long-term downward trend of whole sale and basic commodity prices was halted at least temporarily. Nearly all categories of wholesale prices showed strength after early February and the index as a whole moved upward slightly from midFebruary to the week ended March 17. Farm prod ucts prices, which have been among the weakest in recent months, recovered, while commodities other than farm and food products remained relatively stable. Nationally, as in the Eighth District, the over-all rate of economic activity inched upward. The Fed eral Reserve index of industrial production was estimated at 239 per cent of the 1935-39 average, 0.8 per cent higher than in January and 7.7 per cent greater than a year earlier. As in January, both durable and nondurable output increased, while mineral production decreased slightly. The auto mobile industry paced the nation as output rose from an annual rate of 5.5 million passenger cars in T January to 6.2 million. Production of major house hold goods, which had increased more than sea sonally in January, continued at high rates. Steel ingot production held close to the record rate achieved in January. And shoe plants and paper board mills both operated at substantially higher rates than in February, 1952. However, mineral production continued to decline in February, primarily as a result of a further cur tailment of coal output to a level about one-sixth below that of February last year. Lead and zinc output was curtailed in the month as prices dropped, reflecting lagging demand and the availability of lower-priced foreign supplies. Crude oil production held steady at a rate slightly above a year earlier. Reflecting the rising level of economic activity, nonfarm employment in the nation increased slight ly between January and February although little change is usually expected. Unemployment was little changed from the seasonally advanced January level, but was substantially less than a year earlier. Construction activity was also a strengthening factor during the period. The physical volume of work put in place decreased less than seasonally from January and contracts awarded during the month continued substantially larger than a year ago. The substantial increase in industrial and commercial building contracts awarded so far this year over the comparable period of 1952, together with the expansion in machine tool orders since W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N ITE D S T A T E S Bureau of Labor Statistics (1947.49 = 100) A ll Commodities........ Farm Products...... Foods......................... Other......................... F e b .,’ 53 Jan.,’ 5 3 F e b .,*52 109.6 97.9 105.1 113.1 109.9 99.6 105.5 113.1 112.6 107.8 109.7 114.3 February, 1953 compared with Jan.,’ 53 F e b .,*52 -0 -% — 2 - 0- 0 - — 3% — 9 — 4 — 1 C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X * B ureau of Labor Statistics (1 9 4 7 -4 9 = 1 0 0 ) F e b .,*53 United States............... 113.4 Jan.,*53 113.9 F e b .,*52 112.4 February, 1953 compared with Jan.,*53 F e b .,*52 — 1% + 1 % R E T A IL F O O D * Bureau of Labor Statistics (1 9 4 7 -4 9 = 1 0 0 ) F e b .,’ 53 U .S . (51 cities).......... 111.5 St. Louis................. . 112.8 * N ew series. Jan .,*53 113.1 113.5 F e b .,*52 112.6 114.0 February, 1953 compared with F e b .,*52 2% — 1% 1 — 1 Jan.,*5-3 — — Page 43 relaxation of priorities in November, suggests that private investment is an important element in the high level of business activity. Much of the busi ness investment in plant and equipment is for civil ian uses rather than a result of defense mobilization. Consumers, too, were purchasing goods at a rapid rate and a recent survey conducted by the Federal Reserve System indicated they expected to pur chase a large volume of durable goods and homes this year. More consumers reported plans to buy new cars this year than had so indicated in early 1952 or 1951. Plans to purchase major household goods, especially television sets and furniture, are more numerous than a year earlier. Intentions to buy refrigerators appear little changed from last year. Plans to purchase new and used houses in 1953 appear to be slightly more numerous than a year ago. W ith substantial Government purchases of de fense and civilian goods and services, with an indi cated high level of business investment in plant and equipment, and with consumers’ confident attitudes toward their financial positions and expectations to purchase durable goods and houses in large volume, the underpinnings of economic activity in the near future seem firmly based. Nonfarm employment in the nation, which usually changes little at this time of year, increased sub stantially in February to reach a record high for the month of 55.6 million, about 1.9 million higher than a year earlier. Agricultural employment de clined somewhat and was well under the level of a year ago. Unemployment after a seasonal rise in January, reflecting curtailment of construction and other outdoor activities, declined slightly to 1.9 mil lion. The unemployed represented about 2.9 per cent of all civilian workers this February, compared with 3.4 per cent a year earlier. Seasonal layoffs in large Louisville industries, primarily food processing, distilled liquors and tobacco manufacturing, as well as in retail trade and transportation, caused total employment in that area to drop from January to February. Expansions at ordnance, explosives, and electrical equipment plants only partially offset these seasonal influ ences. Nonfarm employment in the Louisville area was still substantially above year earlier levels with gains centered in defense industries, machinery and equipment manufacturing, and construction. Defense d e m a n d s , combined with seasonal strength shown in the consumer durable markets for automobiles and refrigerators, were reflected in the high level of employment and manufacturing activity in Evansville. Refrigerator plants, as in the past several months, increased employment during February as a result of both their civilian and defense manufacturing activities. Automobile assembly employment moved upward slightly; other industries showed little change from January. The number at work in fabricated metal production increased following settlement of a labor dispute. C O N S U M P T IO N O F E L E C T R IC IT Y -D A IL Y A V E R A G E * F eb., Jan., ( K . W .H . 1953 1953 in thous.) K .W . H . K .W . H . 998 977 Evansville............. Little R ock ........... 211 218 Louisville............... 4,241 4,117 M em phis................ 1,620 1,569 Pine B lu ff.............. 464 452 St. Louis................ 5,370 5,219 12,904 12,552 T otals................. * Selected M anufacturing Firm s. Page 44 February, 1953 compared with Jan .,’ 53 F e b .,*52 + 2% +31% — 3 +13 + 3 +13 + 3 + 6 + 3 — 9 + 3 +13 + 3% +13% L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D F O R 2 5 R A IL R O A D S A T ST . L O U IS First Nine D ays F e b .,*53 Jan .,’ 53 F e b .,’ 52 M a r .,’ 53 M a r .,’ 52 2 mos. ’ 53 2 mos. ’ 52 107,130 109,490 112,784 34,863 32,049 216,620 223,368 Source: Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis. C R U D E O IL P R O D U C T IO N —D A IL Y A V E R A G E ( I n thousands of bbls.) F eb., 1953 T o ta l........................... In the St. Louis area, nonfarm employment in creased substantially in February and early March, largely as a result of the addition of a second shift at the two automobile assembly plants. Some other industries, primarily those manufacturing machin ery, electrical equipment and transportation equip ment, also added workers in the period. Offsetting these increases to a minor extent was the layoff of about 400 workers at one defense plant and other scattered layoffs in retail trade and construction. Feb., 1952 K .W . H . 759 187 3,753 1,526 507 4,735 11,467 Jan., 1953 76.2 164.0 33.6 30.1 303.9 307.3 F eb., 1952 76.2 163.7 30.0 34.5 304.3 F eb., 1953 compared with F e b .,*52 Jan .,’ 53 + 2% + 2% + 1 + 1 + 13 + 1 — 1 — 14 + 1% + 1% C O A L P R O D U C T IO N IN D E X 1935-39 = 100 Feb., ’ 53 Unadjusted Jan., ’ 53 Feb., >52 Feb., ’ 53 Adjusted Jan., ’ 53 F eb., ’ 52 139.3 P 158.5 P 164.9 122.2 P 136.6 P 144.6 S H O E P R O D U C T IO N IN D E X 1 9 3 5 -3 9 = 1 0 0 _____________ Unadjusted_____________ _______________Adjusted______________ Jan., ’ 53 D ec., ’ 52 Jan., ’ 52 Jan., ’ 53 D ec., ’ 52 Jan., ’ 52^ 169.9 P 151.1 P— Preliminary 143.9 166.6 P 154.2 ' 141.1 Industry Industrial activity in the Eighth District in Febru ary and early March continued at a high level, with a number of factories expanding their output. The steel ingot production rate at St. Louis, however, fell off slightly and livestock slaughter declined seasonally. Manufacturing— In February, most manufactur ers in the district were operating their plants at a rate as high as or better than that of January (after allowing for the shorter number of working days) according to the reported use of electricity at se lected firms in six district cities. Textile, lumber and wood-products manufacturers showed absolute gains in use of power over the month of 12 and 15 per cent, respectively, more than the usual spring pickup. Fabricated metals and transportation equip ment producers also used substantially more power. One large shoe manufacturer (with factories in four district states) reported that from December 1 to February 15 output increased 22 per cent over the comparable period a year ago. Steel ingot production fell off slightly, however. In the St. Louis area, the rate was 94 per cent of capacity in February, down 3 points from January. And the drop continued in the first three weeks of March which averaged 90 per cent. However, dis trict output will be increased in the near future with the opening of a new steel mill at Owensboro, Kentucky. This mill will add 198,000 tons poten tial capacity to the district, an increase of about 12 per cent. The number of livestock slaughtered in the St. Louis area was down 17 per cent from January (on a weekly average basis), the drop being in large part seasonal. Compared with February, 1952, the number slaughtered was off 6 per cent, largely reflecting a decline in pig marketings over the na tion. A larger number of cattle and calves were processed. Whiskey production held even over the month with 28 Kentucky distilleries in operation, the same as a month earlier, but six less than a year ago. The continued low rate of production is beginning to be more than offset by withdrawals, making some dent in the large accumulated stocks. Lumber production increased during February with activity in hardwoods continuing to be greater than that in softwoods. Further cutbacks in the output of the district zinc and lead industry resulted from the shutdown of a zinc smelter at Fort Smith, Arkansas, during the month. Coal and Petroleum Output— W ith the continua tion of mild weather, district coal production in February dropped even more, 16 per cent below both January and year-ago figures, according to preliminary estimates. However, crude oil produc tion in district states recovered from the slight decline experienced in January. Constrnetion As in recent months, construction activity in the nation continued strong during February. Out lays for new construction were at a record level for the month and construction contracts awarded continued larger than year earlier levels. Costs remained stable although higher than a year earlier. Outlays for new construction put in place de clined less than seasonally to a total of $2.2 billion during the month. In the first two months of the year, such expenditures were 6 per cent larger than in the comparable period of 1952, with most major types of construction showing dollar increases. However, the physical volume of work put in place was only slightly larger than a year earlier. Contracts awarded for new construction during the short month of February declined somewhat from the January total but were about 16 per cent larger than a year earlier. The latter increase was primarily due to larger amounts of commercial, in dustrial, and private residential building projects. Public contracts for highways and bridges were also substantially larger than a year earlier. The number of new housing starts increased 8 per cent from January to 77,000 units in February, a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.2 million, units con tinuing the high level of the two preceding months. In the Eighth Federal Reserve District construc tion contracts awarded during February increased slightly from January to a total of $57 million, as reported by the F. W . Dodge Corporation. This increase contrasted to a 5 per cent drop nationally. However, total contracts, both in the district and in the United States, were substantially larger in B U IL D IN G P E R M ITS M onth of February, 1953 N ew Construction ________ Repairs, etc. (Cost in Num ber Cost N um ber Cost thousands) 1953 1952 1953 1952 1953 1952 1953 1952 Evansville............. 29 36 $ 384 $ 72 75 48 $ 68 $ 31 Little R ock...... . 53 62 606 557 166 164 109 107 Louisville............... 101 197 1,776 892 108 78 145 111 Mem phis..........1,356 1,404 2,178 2,770 198 171 190 133 St. Louis.......... 265 215 _ 2 ,6 0 7 1,448 212 208 644 601 Feb. Totals...... 1,804 1,914 $ 7,551 $ 5,739 759 669 $ 1,156 $ 983 Jan. T otals....... 1,727 1,975 $ 6,485 $ 5,287 544 569 $ 963 $ 842 Page 45 DEPARTMENT STORES Stocks ____________ N et Sales____________ on H and Stock Turnover F eb., 1953 2 mos. ’ 53 Feb. 28,’ 53 Jan. 1 to compared with to same comp, with Feb. 28, Jan.,’ 53 F e b .,’ 52 period ’ 52 Feb. 2 9 ,’ 52 1953 1952 8th F . R . District T o ta l............................... Ft. Smith, A r k .i............ Little Rock Area, A r k .2............................... Quincy, 111........................ Evansville Area, In d .2. Louisville Area, K y ., In d .2................................ St. Louis Area, M o ., 111.2.................................. Springfield Area, M o .2. Memphis Area, T enn.2 A ll Other Cities3............ — 2% - 0 - + 4% - 0 - + — + 5 + 3 + 5 + 3 + 1 +17 + 6 _ 7 + 4 + 4 + 3 2% 1 + 3% - 0 - .55 .51 .56 .51 + 2 — 3 +18 + 6 +15 ......... .51 + 6 + 3 + 5 .52 .56 + 3 — 1 + 5 +10 + 2 — 4 - 0 +14 + 1 + 4 + 2 +11 .57 .43 .62 .39 .57 .45 .59 .43 .53 .54 ........................ .48 1 In order to permit publication of figures for this city (or area), a spe cial sample has been constructed which is not confined exclusively to depart ment stores. Figures for any such nondepartment stores, however, are not used in computing the district percentage changes or in computing depart ment store indexes. 2 The sample for these areas is unchanged from the sample previously reported for the principal cities in these areas. The area designations follow the definition of Standard Metropolitan Areas established by the Bureau of the Budget on October 17, 1950. The areas consist of the following counties: Little Rock Area— Pulaski County, Arkansas; Evansville Area — Vanderburgh County, Indiana; Louisville Area— Jefferson County, K en tucky, Clark and Floyd counties, In d ian a; St. Louis Area— St. Louis City, St. Charles and St. Louis counties, Missouri, Madison and St. Clair coun ties, Illinois; Springfield Area— Greene County, M issouri; Memphis Area — Shelby County, Tennessee. 3 Fayetteville, Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Harrisburg, M t. Vernon, Illinois; Vincennes, Ind ian a; Danville, Hopkinsville, Mayfield, K entucky; Chillicothe, M issouri; Greenville, M ississippi; and Jackson, Tennessee. O U T S T A N D I N G O R D E R S of reporting stores at the end of February, 1953, were 15 per cent larger than on the corresponding date a year ago. PERCENTAGE OF ACCOUNTS AND N O T E S R E C E IV A B L E Outstanding Feb. 1 , 1953, collected during February: Instalm ent Excl. Instal. Instalment Excl. Instal. Accounts Accounts Accounts Accounts 5 5% 42% Quincy ........... .... 19% Fort Smith... % 43 St. Louis ...... .... 20 51 Little Rock... ..... 14 44 44 Other Cities.. ... 11 Louisville ... ..... 18 46 8 th F .R . Dist. .... 19 34 Memphis ..... ..... 19 ...... IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E SA LE S A N D STOCK S 8 th Federal Reserve District Dec., 1952 179 113 Feb., 1952 80 1 12 109 128 ..... 125 Stocks, seasonally adjusted 5 ............................ . 4 Daily average 1947-49 = 1 0 0 . 5 End of month average 1947-49= 100. Trading d a ys: Feb., 1953— 2 4 ; Jan., 1953 -- 2 6 ; Feb., 1952 --2 5 . 1 12 Feb., 1953 Sales (daily average), unadjusted 4 ..................... ...... Sales (daily average), seasonally adjusted4.... ...... Stocks, unadjusted^ ....... .......................................... 85 106 122 Jan., 1953 79 108 113 130 100 R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E S T O R E S Inventories Ratio N et Sales of Feb.,, 1953 F eb., 1953 Collections compared with compared with Jan.,*53 F e b .,’ 52 Jan.,’ 53 F eb.,’ 52 F e b ./53 Feb.,'52 22% 24% + 12% + 6% + 15% + 3% 56 + 17 60 + 14 + 5 + 11 __ 7 11 13 + 22 + 8 + 5 12 + 26 — 7 11 + 5 + 8 * * 13 12 + 11 + 11 + 11 19 + 2 15 + 8 + 11 Little R ock.. 14 16 + 8 + 17 + 2 + 11 * * * * + 18 + 18 * N o t shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in Eighth District totals. 1 In addition to following cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Pine B luff, A rkan sa s; Hopkinsville, Owensboro, K entucky; Greenwood, M is sissippi ; and Evansville, Indiana. 2 Includes Louisville, K en tu ck y; and N ew Albany, Indiana. P E R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N O F F U R N IT U R E SA L E S Feb., *53 Jan., *53 Cash Sales............................................................................ 16% Credit Sales........................................................................ . 84 Total Sales....................................................................... 1 0 0 % Page 46 18% 82 100% Feb., *52 14% 86 100% February than a year earlier. All of the increase in district awards from January to February was due to a greater value of residential contracts awarded. Data for the first two months of the year suggest that the district construction industry is not moving ahead as fast as nationally. Total contracts awarded in the district during the first two months of 1953 showed little change from the same period in 1952, whereas nationally contracts awarded have totaled approximately 17 per cent more. Most of this disparity is in the lower value of nonresidential construction activity started so far this year in the district. Trade During February, sales at reporting district retail stores moved seasonally from January and com pared favorably with those in February, 1952. Both durable and nondurable lines recorded increases. Homefurnishing sales, a usual February feature, were termed satisfactory. And a somewhat earlier date of Easter in 1953 than in 1952 signaled the start of spring merchandise promotions toward the end of the month. At district department stores February sales totaled slightly under those in January but were 4 per cent above those a year ago. But with fewer trading days in February, 1953, than in either the previous month or the comparable month in 1952, seasonally adjusted daily sales averaged 106 per cent of the 1947-49 period in comparison to 108 per cent in January and 100 per cent in February, 1952. Cumulative sales in the first two months of 1953 were 2 per cent larger than in 1952. At women’s specialty stores in the district the sales level during February was not much changed from that in January and was somewhat higher than that in February, 1952. Men’s wear store sales volume in the month dropped substantially below that in January and was slightly less than a year ago. Furniture sales volume at reporting district out lets totaled somewhat larger than in both January, and February, 1952. W H O L E SA L E TRADE Line of Commodities________ _________ N et Sales_______ D ata furnished by F eb., ’ 53 Bureau of Census compared with U .S . D ept, of Commerce* Jan., *53 F eb., *52 Autom otive Supplies.......................— 1 8 % — 2% D rugs and Chemicals.................. ....— 15 — 2 D ry Goods............................................ — 3 + 6 Groceries........................................... ....— 6 + 2 H ardware............ ............................ .... + 1 3 — 11 Tobacco and its Products.............. + 2 + 4 Miscellaneous......................................— 4 + 3 * * Total A ll Lines.................... ....+ 1 % — 2% * Preliminary. * * Includes certain items not listed above. Stocks February 28, 1953 compared with February 28, 1952 — % + 19 + 1 —13 + 7 — 13 3% Banking and Finance During February and early March the money market remained tight as it has during most of the past twelve months. Reflecting the pressure, banks sold securities and continued to borrow heavily. Business and consumer loans declined during February but showed some expansion in early March. Real estate loans continued to decline. Banking— Loans at district member banks rose $7 million during February, primarily because of a growth in loans by the larger city banks to other banks. Normally loans decline at this time. Both the larger and smaller banks reported a moderate expansion offset in part by a net contraction at the medium-sized banks. The increase at the smaller banks reflected loans to farmers. Commercial, real estate, and consumer loans declined during the month. However, in early March business loans rose contraseasonally and consumer borrowing in creased at the weekly reporting banks. Investment holdings were reduced $63 million during February at district member banks. Twothirds of the reduction was in Government securi ties (largely Treasury bills) at the larger urban banks. Individuals and businesses increased their de posits, both demand and time, during the month. The gain in time deposits was about double the average February growth in the postwar years. Nevertheless, total deposits declined moderately due to a reduction in correspondent bank accounts. The amount of checks cashed was at a high level in February. Debits to deposit accounts (except interbank) at 22 centers in the Eighth District were $3.9 billion. On a seasonally adjusted basis this was up somewhat from the levels of recent months and only slightly below the peak reached last October. Gold Movements— Since December 10 there has been a net drain on the nation's gold. From that date through March 16, the United States Treasury gold stock has declined by $725 million. This out flow of gold, although it represents only 3 per cent of the monetary gold stock of the United States, has been one of the important factors maintaining pressure on bank reserves. D EBITS TO D E P O S IT A C C O U N T S F eb., 1953 Jan., F eb., 1953 1952 E l Dorado, A rk ........... ... $ 22,955 $ 30,683 $ 27,447 Fort Smith, A rk .......... 51,230 43,828 Helena, A r k .................. 8,880 10,454 7,594 Little Rock, A rk ......... 136,263 161,400 36,530 40,183 Pine Bluff, A rk ........... 32,749 16,162 19,148 Texarkana, A r k .* ....... 15,540 30,102 33,339 A lton , 111........................ 28,874 113,018 136,192 E .S t .L .-N a t .S .Y .,I ll., 119,147 32,297 36,951 33,134 156,730 171,578 129,667 Evansville, In d ........... 675,213 Louisville, K y .......^...... 725,928 645,512 42,766 49,867 37,124 Owensboro, K y ........... 42,047 Paducah, K y ............... 45,118 34,868 Greenville, M iss..... .... 24,104 30,281 21,964 Cape Girardeau, M o.. 12,246 16,096 12,272 Hannibal, M o ............... 10,173 9,035 Jefferson City, M o ..... 112,810 51,428 St. Louis, M o ............. ... 1,765,348 2,026 ,1 8 4 1,714,146 11,475 11,709 11,113 Springfield, M o ........... 59,925 69,288 62,256 Jackson, Tenn.............. 19,937 22,357 19,772 Memphis, Tenn........... 629,943 730,157 607,935 ... $3,939,772 $4,541,126 $3,801,688 * These figures are for Texarkana, Arkansas, only. banks in Texarkana, Texas-Arkansas, including banks D istrict, amounted to $34,640. (In thousands of dollars) Feb., 1953 compared with Jan .,53 F e b .,*52 ___ 2 5 % ___ 16 % ___ 15 ___ 1 — 15 + 17 — 14 + 2 — 9 + 12 — 16 4 + — 10 4 + ___ 17 ___ 5 — 13 ___ 3 — 9 + 21 7 5 + 14 + 15 — 7 + 21 — 20 + 10 _ _ 24 0 ___ 16 __ 6 ___ ; 56 __ 3 ---- 13 + 3 — 2 3 + ---- 14 4 ■ .--- 11 1 + '---- 14 +. 4 ---- 1 3 % + 4% Total debits for in the Eleventh E IG H TH D IST R IC T M E M B ER B A N K A S S E T S A N D LIABILITIES B Y S E L E C T E D G R O U P S A ll M ember_____________ ( I n M illions of D ollars) Assets Feb., 1953 1. 3. Loans and Investments.................................. a. L oan s.................................................................. b. U .S . Government O bligations............... c. Other Securities.;.......................................... Reserves and Other Cash Balances........ a. Reserves with the F . R . bank...*........ b. Other Cash Balances 3 ................................ Other A sse ts.......... ............................................... 4. T otal A sse ts.......................................................... 2. 1,493 727 Change fro m : Jan., 1953 F eb., 1952 to to Feb., 1953 F eb., 1953 $— + — — + — + + $— 56 7 56 7 42 22 64 2 12 _______ Large City Banks 1 _________ $ + 365 + 190 + 168 + 7 + 78 + 15 + 63 + 4 $+447 Feb., 1953 $2,664 1,398 1,085 181 926 466 460 34 $3,624 $+281 + 38 +243 + 62 + 74 + 30 $ + 447 $2,763 714 2,049 509 126 226 $3,624 Change fro m : Jan., 1953 Feb., 1952 to to Feb., 1953 Feb., 1953 $+237 $— 44 + 130 + 5 — 42 + 105 — 7 + 2 ' + 44 + 42 + 4 — 17 + 61 + 38 + 2 + 1 $+ 2 $ + 280 ' _________Smaller Banks 2 Feb., 1953 $1,893 682 1,006 205 567 261 306 22 $2,482 Change fro m : Jan., 1953 F eb., 1952 to to Feb., 1953 Feb., 1953 $— 1 2 $ + 128 + 2 + 60 — 14 + 63 - 0 + 5 — 2 + 36 — 5 + 11 + 3 + 25 - 0 + 3 $— 14 $ + 167 Inabilities and Capital $— 5 — 27 + 22 + 9 — 17 + 1 CM . $4,505 756 3,749 1,066 139 396 $6,106 I Gross Dem and D eposits.................................. a. Deposits of B anks........................................ b. Other Dem and D eposits.......................... Tim e D eposits................ ...................................... Borrowings and Other Liabilities............. Total Capital A ccounts................. .................. T otal Inabilities and Capital Accounts.. $ + 16 — 23 + 39 + 5 — 19 - 0 - $+ 2 $ + 177 + 37 + 140 + 21 + 71 + 11 v $ + 280 $1,742 42 1,700 557 13 170 $2,482 $— — — + + + $— 21 4 17 4 2 1 14 ' $ + 104 + 1 + 103 + 41 + 3 + 19 $ + 167 1 Includes 13 St. Louis, 6 Louisville, 3 M em phis, 3 Evansville, 4 Little Rock, and 4 East St. Louis-N ational Stock Yards, Illinois, banks. Some of these batiks are located in smaller urban centers, but the majority are rural area banks. 3 Includes vault cash, balances with other banks in the United States, and cash items reported in process of collection. 2 Includes all other Eighth D istrict member banks. Page 47 restrictions found it easier to buy our goods. As a result, the United States gold flow again reversed about mid-1951. From mid-1951 through mid-1952 the inflow of gold amounted to over $1.5 billion. In consequence, the monetary reserves of many countries declined again. Many countries such as the British Commonwealth countries, the Scandinavian countries and Belgium, stiffened import restrictions. In addition, several countries, such as France, Germany, Holland, and Denmark, were able to expand their exports by the so-called export bonus system. Also there were large mili tary and economic aid grants and some increased offshore military procurement by this country. Thus, the gold inflow halted and since December 10 gold has again begun to flow out. At the present time, the country’s gold stock stands at roughly $22.5 billion. This amount is presently adequate for monetary purposes and com prises about two-thirds of the world’s monetary gold supply outside the U.S.S.R. Movement of gold between countries is one of the ultimate means by which international balances are settled. On the one side of the ledger are pay* ments received for goods, services, and securities the United States sells to other countries, and on the other side are payments due for goods, services, and securities the United States buys from others. In addition, there are other payments that must be taken into account, such as government aid, private remittances and tourist expenditures abroad. If, after all items have been taken into account, there is a balance due to one country from the other, it can be met by one of several methods: by borrowing in the foreign market, by deposit changes in foreign banks, or by the movement of gold. For four years after the end of W orld War II, foreigners purchased a sizable amount of goods from us on balance. These net purchases were paid for, in part, by shipping us gold. However, in late 1949, the gold flow reversed, caused in great part by the devaluation of many foreign currencies to more realistic levels and by large strides toward economic recovery over the whole period on the part of European nations. Thus, foreign govern ments were able to buy back a little of the gold they had previously sold us. After Korea, the gold outflow increased as the United States made heavier purchases of raw materials driving the prices of these commodities up sharply. Early in 1951, United States exports rose, as for eigners with larger dollar earnings and less import Page 48 Crop prospects in the Eighth District remained favorable throughout February and early March, with winter wheat continuing its satisfactory con dition and mild weather permitting some field work, particularly in the mid-South. The open weather was also quite favorable for winter forage, thus benefiting the many farmers who were short of hay due to the 1952 drouth. Farm Income— Despite lower agricultural prices, farm income for the nation during January and February was estimated at $4.7 billion, about the same as for the first two months of 1952. Increased receipts from crops about offset the lower income from livestock. C A S H F A R M IN C O M E January, 1953 (I n thousands of dollars) Jan., 1953 $ 28,417 Arkansas........................................ Illinois............................ ................ 179,939 Indiana........................................... 86,226 K entucky.................. .................... 126,969 Mississippi..................................... 32,476 Missouri......................................... 79,079 Tennessee...................................... 54,520 7-States Totals....................... $587,626 8 th D ist. Totals..................... 265,801 D e c ., 1952 — 52% — 3 — 9 — 14 — 46 — 22 — 12 — 17% — 24 Jan., 1952 — 33% + 12 - 0 +21 + 8 — 5 + 13 + + 6% 2 R E C E IP T S A N D S H IP M E N T S A T N A T IO N A L STOCK YAR D S Receipts February, 1953 compared with F eb., 1953 Jan.,’ 53 F e b .,'52 +35% Cattle and calves..... 91,865 — 1 6 % — 21 .. 224,445 — 20 — 25 .. 28,151 — 29 — 11% . 344,461 — 2 0 % Feb., 1953 30,073 45,495 6,557 82,125 Shipments February, 1953 compared with Jan.,*53 F e b .,'52 — 29% + 1% — 13 — 46 — 33 — 60 — 22% — 37%