Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) : March 1919
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• Federal Reserve Banl~ of Dallas This summary of agrlcultural and commercial conditions In the Eleventh Federal Reserve District Is Issued In the belief that a concise review of trade will be of Interest to our member banks, business men of the district and friends of the Federal Reserve Bystem. The Information given Is obtained by the Federal Reserve Agent from various sources throughout the district, and In our opinion the same Is reliable. Those desiring the letter furnished them regularly wlll receive It without charge upon appllcatlon. DALLAS, MARCH, 1919 'rhe undertone of caution and hesitancy in various lines of business, pending more settled market conditions, price adjustments, and further progr·ess in the transitory period is still conspicuous. There were evidences in February of the return to normal and pre-war conditions in the district, as reflected ?y the slight reduction in prices of food-stuffs durll1g the month. The decline in the market affected princ.ipally dairy products, country produce and certall1 grocery commodities. Some relief is thus afforded from the abnormal cost of living to which We had become more or less accustomed during the wa:, and the reduction in prices is quite welcome. It IS at least indicative that a start has been made in ~eadjustments, and we look for further favorable developments. Excellent crop prospects may be considered an accur.ate barometer as to the futur'e and present indi~atlOns forecast very heavy yields of farm products. rrade conditions, summarized, continue fair to good, and our correspondents, with few exceptions, are optimistic over the outlook This is especially true in sections of the West and Southwest where drouth conditions .up to a few months ago were extremely bad. There has been little change in the c.ot ton. situation during the month, as slow collechons 111 the agricultural belt testify, and trade in those sections plainly shows this ~~ation. In the to'W11S adjacent to the oil fields-Ranger, Burkburnett and Wichita Falls-conditions are abnormal and business activiti'es are unprecedented. The prediction of unusually heavy yields in grain and other foqd crops is amply AGRICULTURE justified by the advanced reports. It will be gratifying if . thl~ condition materializes and the pr'e sent campaign for a rediJction of one-third in the cotton acreage is a success. . Meetings of agricultural and bankers' associations, of farmers unions and commercial organiza- tions have recently been held for the purpose of effectually securing a reduction in the area planted in cotton the present seas.on. The proposed plan is to secure pledges from cotton planters, agreeing to reduce the acreage at least one-third under that planted in 1918. Increased grain and food pi-<;>duction is especially urged, and this of course will automatically decrease the cotton acreage. It is very difficult to Qrophesy the result of the present campaign. February 22 was designated as "Pledge Day" when farmers and planters gathered in their respective community centers and agreed to support the movement. The conditions now obtaining on account of the slow marketing of cotton and the fact that another crop will soon be upon us, make it imperative that concerted action be taken, else a very dangerous situation obtain when ' the new crop is ready for market. As commented upon in a preceding paragraph, prospects for crops in 1919 could hardly be improved upon; there is an excellent season in the ground and good weather alone is needed for farm work The planting season is at least thirty days late, especially in South and East Texas on account of excessive moisture in those sections. Very little farm Work has thus far been attempted. The excellent crop prospects and ' improved conditions in the live stock industry make BANKING necessary the use of large sums in loans to stockmen and farmers in the West, and the demand for money in those sections, especially, was never heavi·er. The facilities of this b~nk are freely sought and the previous heavy demand continues unabated. Our total bills discounted and bought show a slight increase during the month. It has neeessitated this institution rediscounting with ,other Federal Reserve banks. Interest rates have not changed within the past thirty days, and are steady at 6 to 8 per, cent . .' Deposits have increased slightly during the past month~ Fed- This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) eral reserve note circulation decreased $4,500,000 in the same period. Reserve deposits of member banks increased $500,000 111 the past thirty days. At the risk of repetition it may be stated that on account of memher banks of this immediate section carrying large loans against cotton they are finding it extremely difficult to maintain required reserves, and in addition care for their regular customers. r\ very serious condition exists with some of the banks in the cotton district, and they are badly extended on account of the unusual and abnormal situation. As a consequence, of the quotas of Treasury certificates allotted this district in the several issues recently only 25 to 50 per cent has been subscribed. It is also necessary, as in other districts of course, for our banks to carry a large amount of Liberty bonds for their customers. This demand absorbs funds which would ordinarily be used in commercial channels. Clearings at the principal cities in January show an increase of 5.2% over the same month of 1918. We consider this an excellent showing, following the holiday period and unsettled conditions since the signing of the armistice. A comparison follows: Austin ....... _....... ..............$ Beaumon t ........................ Dal1as .............................. E1 Paso ............................ Fort Worth .................... Galveston ........................ Houston ............................ Shreveport ...................... 1918 25,136,587 5,8'03,764 97,213,510 17,196,483 71,336,212 27,949,634 76,728,607 12,804,331 1919 $ 21,231,642 6,500,000 119',925,880 22,629,859 65,625,074 27.252,666 75,095,229 13,370,1'81 Inc. or Dec. *15.0 12.0 111 valuation, over January 1918. The showing is better than for December 1918, however, and not altogether disappointing. Detailed figures follow: No. Austin .................................. 11 Beau mon t ....... _................... Dalla s ................................ 55 Fort 'Wo rth ...................... 24 Galveston .......................... 189 Houston ............................ 168 Sa n Antonio ................... .233 Shreveport ........................ 38 E1 Paso .............................. 72 Total ........................$334,159,128 $351,630,531 Increase-$17,461,403-5.2% * Deer'e ase Improved weather conditions obtained during February and created renewed activity BUILDING in the building industry. We d.o not expect any general recovery in operations until the Spring and Summer months. The present outlook, however, is very ·e ncouraging. The greatest activity is reported from the cities in the oil fields. At Wichita Falls, particularly, contracts aggregating over $1,000,000 have recently been let. Locally, the construction of residences of the better class has been resumed and some small contracts for improvements have been made. Architects, and dealers in lumher aJ!td building material, report an increased number of inquiries, and predict that as Spring opens the buildii1g industry will again become very active. The labor situation, and inability to fill orders for materials are restricting op·erations.' A comparison of the permits issued at the principal cities of the district in J anuary shows an increase in number, but a decrease No . 4 ,~ tV~luation. 46 59 548 140 211 72 75 Total... ..................... 790 $1 ,308,876 1,155 Increase in llu111ber-365 Decrease ill valuation-$61l,903-46.7% $ ' 2,450 28,956 109,820 92.725 61,108 152,507 127,942 82.215 39,250 $696,~73 hxports from the Galveston district during D ecember, the last month for which figEXPORTS ures are ava.ilable, were valued at $40,910,428, a n i ncr ea 5 e 0 f $25,859,684, or 171.8%, over November. Better shipping facilities are now available and the early resumption of ·exp'0rt trade is expected. 'l'he record of bu siness mortalities in the district in January shows the same number as FAILURES in January, 1918, but an increase in the amount involved. The figures, as furnished by R. G. Dun & Company, are: 23.4 31.6 *8.0 *2.5 *0.8 3.9 1918 Valuation. $ 26,355 78,757 381,941 55,550 11,285 378,555 302,210 17,883 56,340 No . 48 191? 1919 Liabilities. No. Liabilities. 48 $695,082 $455,538 Increase in liabilities-$239,544 Indications of labor troubl·es are much stronger than a month ago. The unemployment LABOR situation is becoming serious in many parts of the district. There does not seem toO be any considerable disposition on the part of employers to reduce wages at this time, but the general tread is in that directi0n. This movement will, of C0urse, be str0ngly resisted by the laborer, and we may shortly witness some disturbanc·es caused by strikes and lock-outs. One of the principal difficulties now being encountered is the apparent disinclination of men released from the army to accept positions at the prevailing wages. 'fhe cattle industry throughout the district continues to improve. Abundant LIVE STOCK rains and snows have fallen over the range country within the past 1110nth. Losses during that period have been light; grass is starting in good shape and prospects for early feed are thefoefore excellent. A large number of ranchmen are feeding weak and thita cattle, and total losses have so far been nominal. Receipts at the markets are limited and the qual- ity is very poor. Prices are hi gh and entirely satisfactory. It is anticipated that the number of cattle coming to the markets for some months yet will be quite limited. In about thirty days shipments from South Texas will be received and while this will relieve the scarcity to some extent large runs are not 'expected. It has been necessary for the past thirty or sixty days for packers to ship hogs and furnish meats from the Northern markets to care for needs in this district, and prices are therefore materially advanced. They will probably remain at a high level for sometime yet. In the Arizona section there is a brisk dem and for steers for Spring shipment, but few contracts have b.een made, as dealers are awaiting definit'e indicabons as to prevailing prices and the condition of cattle at shipping time. While we may not expect the cattle industry to become normal at a very early date, it is a fact that conditions have generally improved in the past few weeks. Manufacturers of lumber report that since the first of February the number of inquiries LUMBER has greatly increased and during that time they have received more requests for prices of materials of all classes than for. ~a.ny months past. In addition to the incr-eased actlVltles locally, there is a great demand for export material, and European prime, saps, deals and s~wn lumber are readily salable in almost any quantIty. Exporters are still speculating, as the actual orders placed with them by foreign buyers are light, but as stocks on hand are very low they are buying them up and expecting a large business. Stocks in r'e tail yards throughout the district are below normal, while stocks on hand at mills in th e producing territory are only sixty per cent. of normal. .In addition to this the weather during the past. SIxty to ninety days has been such that prodUction was greatly curtailed. Very little lumb-er Was C-cumufated during tbe Winter, as the mills e.ntered the season with large orders. This condition seems to be general, as excessive rains have pWr~ven.ted. the mills from keeping supplied with logs. lt~ lIldlcations for a rather limited lumber productIOn for the next few months, the outlook is for good demand and higher prices, especially in view of ~he fact that building operations have been neces~anly curtailed for the past two years. Prices have een practically at a standstill since December last, and .the mere fact that they have not appreciably dechned is ample indication that the market is strong. Production in the copper mining district of Arizona is not more than one-half normal, and MINING all development work has been closed down. No labor troubles have been experienced thus far. T he activities in the oil fields of the district are reflected in many cities in the North, NorthOIL west and Central Texas. The produ ction is increasing daily and confidence in the permanency of the fields appears justified by recent developments. Large and small wells are being added to the already long list of producers. a nd new wells are being rapidly sunk. Authorities concede that the Texas fields compare favorably with the largest in the country. Post off ice r eceipts at the prinCipal cities of the district in January show a dePOST OFFICE creas'e of .3 per cent., as shown RECEIPTS by the figur es below: 1918 Austin ........................................................$ 22,641 Beaumont ........ .......................................... 13,944 Dallas ........................................................ 156,567 E I Paso .................................................... 36,102 Fort Worth .............................................. 71,116 Galveston .................................................. 16,809 Houston .................................................... 90.023 San Antonio ............................................ 93,959 Shreveport ................................................ 23,582 Wa co .......................................................... 46,029 1919 $ 22,184 16,214 174,551 35,461 74,263 20,076 93,145 83,664 24,300 24,935 Total...............................................$570,772 Decrease-$1,979-.3% $568,793 Bu sin ess in wholesale and jobbing lines continues to be affected by uncertain WHOLESALE prices and .disturbed market AND RETAIL conditions. There have been TRADE no developments of interest during the month. The policy of buying tor immediate necessities only is being strictly followed, according to our reports. In the mail order trade, and wholesale dry goods and notions, orders are light. The demand for farm implements and machine~y and articles necessary for the planting season is very active, and dealers report a satisfactory trade. The same is also true in seeds and bulbs: Some improvement is noted in wholesale drugs. The revival in building operatio_ has also created a good demand for paints and ns wall paper. While some commodities in the grocery line have shown a sharp reaction in prices, other staples have advanced, and there seems to be no indication of a general reduction. Wholesale grocers advise that attempts are being made among the trade to cancel and repudiate contracts' previously entered into, on account of a decline in some commodities. These measures are heing vigorously opposed by the wholesaler. Retail trade is onl~ fair. Unseasonable weather during February has contribut·ed .to this condition, and while ' the distribution is generally satisfactory, it has been mainly stimulated by clearance sales and the disposition of retail merchants to reduce stocks of Winter merchandise. There is some advanced activity in goods for Spring, principally millinery. There is also reported a fairly active business in men's wearing apparel, with the return of troops to civil life. / STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS At the Close of Business February 28, 1919. RESOURCES g~l~ ~~i~~~2:f;~::~~~::i~::~~~;:~:::::::: : : : : : : : : : : : : :: : ~: : : = : : : : : : : : : : : : : :: : :: :: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : ::: : $ H~!:~~H~ Gold held with foreign agencies.......................................................................................................................................... Gold with Agent for retir~ment of F. R. Notes ..................: .. ........................ ........................................... .l.................. 204,()10.61 19,764,805.00 Total ........................................... _.......... _.............................._......................................................................................... $35,325,915.36 Legal tender notes, silver. etc ....................................................._...................................................................................... 1,979,976.00 Total ................................................................................................................................................................................. $37.305,~91.36 ~1;e~f~b~~t~Jun~e~:~ ~:~.~_~~.~~~.::..::::..::....::..~:::::..~~::::::::~~~.:.....:....~::..:::..:::::::::::.:::::::::::::::~..:::::::..:::::::..:::::.:::.::::::::....::....:: 56,~~~,,~~g·.~~ Bills bought in open market ...................................................... _...................................................................................... 1,758,000.00 Total Bills on Hand ............................... _.. _.......... _.. _.................................................................................................. $58,345,862.57 Investments-U. S. Bonds............................................................. ...................................................................................... 3,967,250.00 U . S. Certificates of Indebtedness....................................................................................................................................... 3,900,000.00 Total earning assets ...................................................................................................................................................... $66,213,112.57 Federal Reserve Banks-Transfers Bought-(net) ............... ................................................. _................................... 2,754,982.53 Checks and drafts in process. of collection...................................................................................................................... 7,766,534.71 ·AII other resources ....................................................... _.................. ...................................................................................... 3,121,872.75 Total Resources ............................................................................................................................................................ $117,486,093.92 LIABILITIES . Capital paid in ...............................................:................................... ............................................................•......................... $ 3,199,800.00 592,204.25 Surplus ............................................................................................................................................. :....................................... . Government deposits ............................................................................................................................................................ 7,863,246.14Due to member banks' reserve account ......._..... _.................... _...................................................................................... 38,780,266.67 7,441,898.33 Deferred credits, account checks and drafts in process of collection ........................................... _............... .... Federal Reserve Notes in circulation ............................................................................................................................. . 51,167,235.00 F. R. Bank Note Circulation ............................................................................................................................................. . 6,212,100.00 Due t9 oth er Federal Reserve Banks (net) ................................................................................................................... 747,438.53 1,481,905.00 All other Iiabilities............................. _........................................ _........................................................................................ Total Liabilities ....... _...... _.. _.._.. _.. _.... _ .. _.................. _...... .................................................................................... $117,486.093.92 OFFICERS W. F. RAMSEY, Federal Reserve Agent. R.. L. VAN ZANDT, Governor. LYNN P. TALLEY, Depu ty Gqvernor-Cashier. PAUL G. TAYLOR, CHARLES C. HALL, R. R. GILBERT, Ass't Federal Reserve Agent. Assistant Cashier. Assistant Cashier. R. BUCKNER COLEMAN, FRED HARRIS, Assistant Cashier. Assistant Cashier.