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Business Review

-

Infiation_
Temporary or Ongoing
Is the Question for the 1970's

June 1975

This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org)

Inflation_

Temporary or Ongoing
Is the Question for the 1970's
Even
ant. tho ugh' fl atIOn was seen as
In .
a a lonal crisis only a few months
s~o, Some recent easing in wholebell ~~d r~tail prices has led to a
th e It will slow significantly by
re;l:~~o.f the ?"ear. Recession has
' e
top lC of InflatIOn as an economic
.
atte t ' pnmary concern as public
lever ~on has focused on the high
o unemployment.
The ill li
.
Price d p cations of these latest
evelopments however
should
'
,
not
do not n be overdrawn. They
.
of P' ecessal'lly portend an era
Statrtce stability for the United
rapiJs. ~n f~ct, the persistence of
ext Prtce Increases in the face of
de~ellle slumps in aggregate
Scor and and production underinfl.a~~ how powerful and ingrained
p ,lOnary forces have become.
sho rtces in the United States
tnu ~ed considerable stability for
peo~l of the postwar period. Many
infl.at~ began to regard rampant
Atn ~on as peculiar to Latin
cou~~l~an and other foreign
rtes.
lev!~tfSin~e the midsixties, the
incre 0 . prIces has been rising
thre asmgly faster. After nearly
peac~lears of unprecedented
Pric lllle controls on wages and
pric!S, the l!.S. economy suffered a
last explOsIon of crisis proportions
"spe~fa~; And while a number of
tion ,al factors worsened inflaalon~n recent years, these factors
the h' are not sufficient to explain
the Jdsh~r r~tes of inflation since
lxtles.
Contr'b .
h,. 1 Ubng factors
.l.i.1Slng h
1973 s. arply under controls in
the f' Prtces climbed in 1974 at
astest pa ce SInce reconverSIOn
'
.
nUsines R .
s eVlew I June 1975

after World War II. The surge was duction bottlenecks. Vitally needed
even more alarming because it
supplies either were diverted to
came as the economy was slipping
export markets or became too
into the deepest recession in the
unprofitable to produce. Inflation
last year was particularly worspostwar years.
The level of prices was raised, to ened, however, by a quadrupling of
some extent, by lingering effects
world oil prices, the end of wageprice controls, and poor agriculof earlier events. Devaluations of
the dollar in 1971 and 1973, poor
tural production.
farm output in 1972, the failure
The Arab embargo on oil shipments to the United States and
of Peru's anchovy catch in 1973,
Russia's unexpectedly large wheat the decision of the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries
purchase in 1973, and the simulto establish a high price for crude
taneous expansion of industrial
petroleum forced prices up, both
economies worldwide in 1973-all
directly-consumers had to pay
provided upward stimulus.
In addition, wage-price controls more for petroleum productsand indirectly-production costs
that began in 1971 contributed to
increased for goods and services
raw materials shortages and pro-

Price performance has worsened since midsixties , , ,
180 1967=1 0 0 --------------------------------------I

150 -

120

,

-

...... 1--- 1 ~,~.
•.
" '. __ ....

, ..... '

WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX

90

-

60

.... ,.,'
#

40

11

z<l:

30

-

o?:

Uiz

en

<I:

WW

ua:
wO
a:lO:

0

I

1945

1950

"
en
I

...J

0

.....

a:

I-

Z

0

U

w
~

Z

Q

z
Q

Z

Q

en
en

u
w

en
en

en
en

u
w

W

a:

1955

W

a:
<I:
?:
:E
<I:
z

W

u

I-

a:

a:

>

w

~

I
1960

1965

a:

a.
zc
Qz

en

<I:

enw

~(!)
1.iJ

<I:

a:?:

1970

w
~

a:

a.
c
z
<I:

w
(!)

<I:

?:
LL.

0
C

z

w

I

1975

SOURCE: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics

1

.. . as growth in money supply has outpaced production
10 PERCENT CHANGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

5 -

0--

-5 -

-10 -

-15

REAL GNP

~------~----~------TI------~----~------T--

1945
SOURCES:

1950

1955

1960

requiring energy-related inputs.
Too, higher oil prices spurred
demand for substitute energy
sources like coal and natural gas,
driving up their prices as well.
Effects of the late-1973 embargo
surfaced quickly. In the first quarter of 1974, the energy component of the consumer price index
(CPI) -gasoline and motor oil, fuel
oil and coal, and gas and electricity-rose at a 70.7-percent annual
rate, accounting for more than a
fourth of the overall rise in consumer prices.
Energy prices continued to
advance sharply in the second
quarter-at a 22.3-percent annual
rate-before slowing considerably
over the last half of the year.
Nevertheless, the index for gas and
electricity was still climbing rapidly in the fourth quarter.
Retail food prices also climbed
strongly in the first quarter of
2

1965

1970

1975

Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System
U.S. Department of Commerce

1974. Food distribution was disrupted by a truckers' strike and
fuel shortages. And retail prices
were further boosted by disappointing fresh vegetable harvests
and sharply higher sugar prices
worldwide. Although the price rise
for food was much less than that
for energy, it contributed more to
the surge in consumer prices
because food has a much greater
weight in the CPI.
In the second quarter, the rise
in retail food prices slowed, reflecting weakening farm prices. But
over the rest of the year, food prices
climbed faster, partly because of
smaller supplies due to cutbacks in
production and partly because of a
severe runup in the price of sugar.
The surge in fuel and food costs
does not, however, fully explain
inflation in 1974. Prices for all
other retail items in the CPI rose
at an annual rate of 8.6 percent in

the first quarter, accelerated
sharply in the second quarter, and
reached an annual rate of 15.3
percent in the third quarter. In
fact, they did not begin slowing
until the sharp drop in economic
activity at year-end.
End of controls
Higher prices for retail items other
than food and fuel were influenced
to some extent by the termination
of Phase IV controls. To have
wage-price controls suspended by
April 30, 1974, dismantling was
started seven months before. By
the termination date, prices of lesS
than a tenth of the items contained in the CPI (excluding 3.5
percent that were put under control of the Federal Energy Office)
were still controlled. And wage
controls affected only 24.1 percent
of the civilian labor force.
Severe inflation after controls,
therefore, involved more than a
simple "bubble" once artificially
suppressed prices were freed. In
fact, changes in employee COIDpensation and productivity showed
strong cost-push pressures-even
as the economy braked with the
deepening recession.
In manufacturing, for example,
unit labor costs accelerated
throughout 1974. Compensation
per manhour increased rapidly,
especially in the second quarter.
By contrast, output per manhou!'
fell in each quarter but the second.
Gains in productivity did not offset increases in compensation in
any period.
Unit labor costs also soared in
the private nonfarm economy.
Productivity sagged, even while
compensation was increasing
substantially.
Inflation of the past 18 monthS,
therefore, cannot be dismissed as
solely a product of special causes
and transitory phenomena. And
despite recent slowing in price

increases th
.
that i fl '. ere IS reason to believe
ing .n at~onary pressures are still
ramed m the economy.
P orexam 1
P e, even though wholesale P .
lllont~ces fell for four consecutive
in A ~ be~ore turning upward
ste~ril thIS year, the decline
ThUs ed entirely from agriculture.
ucts ,when prices for farm prodApriland processed foods rose in
(WpiJ~e wholesale price index
trial . Increased markedly. Indusat tn prIces continued to rise-but
first ~Calhfslower rates than in the
A
of 1974.
tnong nonagricultural items
weak
'
for crness h as b een most apparent
d
crudeu e m~terials: Prices for
the di:naterI~s rose rapidly with
began ~~~ng of controls but
Pearin h ng last November.
Pric g s ortages and higher
es, produ
stOcked
cers apparently overinvent ~nd, then, liquidated
sales ~~es of basic materials as
Sinc prod~ction slumped.
intenn e ~atenals and goods in
Proces ~diate or final stages of
costs S~g ~ntail higher labor
have ~~~~e In.dexes for these items
rates h
eclined. But growth
recent aVe slowed substantially in
Th months.
e
prices hate of rise in consumer
Octobera~a!so abated since last
COlnpo . nces for the three broad
lllOdit.nents of the CPI-food comles oth
'
Vices_haver than food, and serrapid!
e recently risen less

y.

But whil
...
has sub .d e double-dIgIt mflation
dards t~ ed! by historical stanat a f~ t e pnce level is still rising
cuttin: i:ate . ~nd continued price
tained
n~t likely to be susin line :~~ Inventories are brought
't..~
sales.
J.-;ear-ter . fl
on the t mIn ation will depend
recove~ rength of the expected
aggre ' especially growth in
ior of ~a~e demand and the behavless, an~ p~t and wages. RegardYSIS of other postwar
nUs'
lltess R .
eVlew I June 1975

Money supply and prices rise faster with federal deficits
15 PERCENT CHANGE-------------------------------CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

10 -

5-

-5-T------~----~-----.------,------.------~

15 BILLION DOLLARS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

5O __JL~~LJ~~rL~~~~,r~~~,,~~~~--5 BUDGET DEFICIT

-15 -

-25~1----~1----~Ir----.-----,-----.I-----.I-

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

SOURCES : Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System
U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics
U .S . Department of Commerce

experiences with price increases
suggests the rate of inflation will
substantially exceed that of previous recoveries.
Early postwar experiences
Prices mushroomed immediately
after World War II. Between 1945
and 1948, the GNP deflator-the
broadest measure of the price
level-rose a third. Hidden price
increases that emerged once wartime controls were lifted contributed to the initial surge, as did
labor costs that began climbing
after dismantling of wage controls
started in 1945. In the second half
of 1946, consumer prices advanced
15 percent and wholesale prices
soared 25 percent.
Inflation was sustained by
strong consumer demand, however,
as households sought to make up

for wartime austerity. Durable
goods, especially, were in short
supply. Residential construction
boomed.
Investment rose sharply as business responded to consumer wants
and converted to peacetime production. Too, net exports soared
when war-ravaged countries turned
to America for aid.
At the same time, the economy
was very liquid. Savings had accumulated during the war, and the
Federal Reserve System was prepared to purchase Government
securities in quantities sufficient
to maintain low and stable interest
rates for the Treasury. Only sizable budget surpluses restrained
aggregate demand-until the economy went into recession in the
fourth quarter of 1948, which
broke the price level.
3

Before the outbreak of the
Korean conflict in 1950, the generallevel of prices had fallen 3
percent from the start of the
1948-49 economic contraction. But
with the Korean conflict came a
new wave of inflation.
Businesses, expecting shortages
to ensue from the entry of the
United States into the conflict,
began buying heavily. Wholesale
prIces advanced more than 16 percent in eight months.
Consumers likewise had not forgotten shortages during World War
II. Sales of consumer durables
surged 26.5 percent in the third
quarter of 1950. And consumer
prices rose almost 8 percent from
June 1950 to February 1951.
The sharp outburst in demand
was short-lived. Inflationary pressures were quelled by wage and
price controls, tax increases, and
credit restrictions. So, although
growth in the money supply did
not slow-even with the TreasuryFederal Reserve accord in March
1951-consumer prices edged up
only about 3 percent in the next
two years. l And wholesale prices
actually fell around 6 percent.
By contrast, average hourly earnings rose about 12 percent in the
same period.
Stimulative fiscal and monetary
policies prompted another increase
in prices in the midfifties. From
1955 to 1958, the cost-of-living
index rose at an annual rate of 2.6
percent and the wholesale price
index rose 2.5 percent. This round
of inflation was highlighted primarily by the 1955 boom in new
car sales.
Expenditures on automobiles
soared 35 percent in 1955, forcing
the auto industry to draw heavily
on its suppliers. Order books soon
bulged in other industries, and
businessmen rushed to expand

Prices rise with unit labor costs,
as compensat'ion outstrips productivity
180 1967=100

140 -

100
NONFARM

UNIT LA BICO~R~C:O~S~T~S~fflf'''~~~
OUTPUT PER
MANHOUR

60

20

I

1945

1950

I

1955

I
1960

1965

I
1970

I

1975

SOURCE: U.s . Bureau of Labor Statistics

capacity, creating a capital goods
boom. But just when sales and
profits looked promising, union
contracts in many important
industries were renegotiated.
Wage settlements were large,
and many labor pacts included
deferred increases and escalator
clauses. Average hourly earnings
(excluding overtime) in durable
goods industries climbed 3.2 percent in the last half of 1955.
Demand for higher pay spread
from industry to industry, so that
even as excess demand began to
abate, prices rose on the strength
of cost-push pressures. Spurred by
rising unit labor costs, prices
climbed steadily throughout the
1957 -58 recession.
Prices showed greater stability
from 1958 to 1965. On average, the
GNP deflator rose only 1.6 percent
a year. Growth in compensation
per manhour averaged 4.8 percent annually, but productivity
gains held the average yearly rise

in ucit labor costs to less than 1
percent.
Slack in the economy helped
keep prices fairly stable. In the
aftermath of recession, 6.8 percent
of the civilian labor force was
unemployed in 1958. The unemployment rate did not average
below 5.0 percent until 1965, when
it dipped to 4.5 percent. Moreover,
the Federal Reserve's index of
capacity utilization stood at a
low 75.1.
After a cyclical downturn in
1960-61, business picked up.
Unfilled orders mounted, and
capacity utilization rose steadilY,
Fiscal policy included such expansionary elements as accelerated
depreciation guidelines in 1961 d't
and 1962, an investment tax cre I
in 1962, and a tax cut in 1964.
Monetary policies were also
expansive. augmenting aggregatetb
demand. The annual rate of ~row6
in the money supply rose from.a.
percent in 1960 to 4.6 percent 111

1. The understanding with the Treasury freed the Federal Reserve from the responsibility of supporting Government bond prices- a consideration

that had interfered with formulating monetary policy,

4

1965 P ,
We ' nce pressures, however,
b re probably mitigated somewhat
~ ~~ge-Price guidelines initiated
2.
:ra of rising inflation
b ~ late 1965, the gap closed
G~;een actual GNP and potential
-the measure of what the
e
Conomy would pro d uce If all ItS
'
.
re
bes~urces were fully used. Demand
av g,t~o press relentlessly against
I
lab a Je ,supplies of products and
con~' uIldup for the Vietnam
tur ct pushed defense expendifro: fP more than 60 percent
for s ~65 to 1968, while outlays
an 0 OCI~ programs' further fueled
eral ~e~ eated economy. The feddefic'~ get plunged deeply into
inco~' even though a 10-percent
red e tax surcharge in 1968
;ced the deficit somewhat.
erra:?wth in the money supply was
Seco IC. A sharp slowdown in the
,,~d half of 1966 preceded the
But t~ecesSion" late that year.
the n e money supply rose faster
Perceen){tt . two years, increasing 7.9
\Vb In 1968.
eran ~e movements in prices gengrovYt ~g movements in money,
h
erated /n consumer prices accel42
rom 2.9 percent in 1966 to
the ~~rc~nt in 1968. And although
steaJse In wholesale prices was less
aYe y, ,a~eraging about 2 percent
.
thatar It 18 ob'
th
Vlous In retrospect
era of e e~onomy had entered an
persIstent
rncrease . inflation.
Period
s In wages over this
Probl underline the nature of the
Unemef' From 1966 to 1969, the
than ~ oyment rate averaged less
stand p;rcent-the then-accepted
With
for full employment.
earninas or markets tight, wage
So e" g rose rapidly. Demand was
....cessive . f t h
Price u' ~ In ac ,t at wagetotall g .Idehnes were rendered
'In Y Ineffective by 1967.
YVnere wa .
4.1 Perc
.ge Increases averaged
ent In the private nonfarm

f\

BUs'

llless Review I June 1975

economy in 1966, they were averaging 6.3 percent in 1968. Firstyear increases obtained in major
collective-bargaining situations
climbed from 4.8 percent in 1966
to 7.2 percent in 1968.
The seriousness of inflation
became apparent in the period
from 1969 through mid-1971. Fiscal and monetary policy tightened
in 1969. The Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 pushed
the federal budget abruptly into
surplus. And growth in the money
supply slowed in the second half
of 1969.
Prices continued to rise that
year-the CPI advancing 5.4 percent and the WPI 3.9 percen~and
the unemployment rate dipped to
3.5 percent. Nevertheless, under
pressure of policy restraints, the
economy slipped into recession.
Beginning in late 1969, the recession lasted most of 1970. The
unemployment rate advanced
sharply that year, reaching 5.9
percent in 1971.
'
Despite a sluggish economy,
inflation persisted, cost-push pressures picking up where demandpull forces left off. Consumer prices
rose 5.9 percent in 1970-the third
consecutive year of acceleration. That was the fastest rate of
increase since the Korean conflict.
Large increases were posted by
wholesale prices as well.
Wage pressures also began to
mount, especially in construction.
Wage-rate adjustments won by
construction workers in major
collective-bargaining settlements
in the third quarter of 1970 averaged 21.3 percent for the first contract year. The GNP deflator rose
at a 6.4-percent annual rate in the
fourth quarter of 1970, and unit
labor costs increased 5.4 percent.
As the price level continued to
advance, despite low capacity utilization and high unemployment,
sentiment for direct controls

mounted. In response, Congress
enacted the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970.
In March 1971, President Nixon
established the Construction
Industry Stabilization Committee
to moderate wage-price increases.
And after consumer prices seemed
to surge in early summer, he
announced a New Economic Policy-including a wage-price freeze
(Phase I)-on August 15, 1971.
Implications
Review of postwar price experiences suggests that special factors-like poor farm production
and disruptions in the flow of oil
supplies-clearly boost prices of
basic commodities. Likewise, an
abrupt change in the composition
of demand, such as an investment
boom, can aggravate inflation.
But, in general, inflation results
from sharp increases in aggregate
demand-increases that exceed
previous expectations and, thus,
overtax the productive resources
available in the real economy.
To maximize long-run profits,
producers plan output around
expectations about prices and
costs-including interest rates and
unit labor costs. Households offer
labor services in response to prevailing wage rates and expectations about prices for consumer
goods and services.
In the short run, productive
capacity can be considered almost
fixed. Producers can raise output
by using more labor, but productivity will eventually decline.
Aggregate demand rises directly
when government spending or foreign (export) demand increases.
But, in particular, total demand is
raised by sharp increases in money
and credit, which boost consumer
spending and business investment.
When demand increases faster
than the ability of the economy to
produce goods and services-a
5

capacity based on lower expectations-inflationary pressures mount.
If there is excess capacity,
higher output tends to reduce
price pressures by spreading costs
on a per-unit basis. But as excess
demand persists, unit costs rise
since capital and labor are used
less efficiently. And when effective
capacity is exhausted, excess
demand must translate into higher
prices ..
Unfortunately, the reverse-an
unexpected fall in demand-generally does not lower the price level.
Many costs in the economy, including wage and benefit increases
locked in by collective-bargaining
agreements, are contractual. They
can keep rising in the short term. If
output falls, unit costs tend to rise
even faster.
In addition, some markets may
not be very competitive with
regard to prices. Producers in
these markets can adjust to lower
demand by reducing output (and
employment) instead of prices.
Similarly, in a recession, unions
may gain wage hikes to offset past
inflation-even at the expense of
employment and output.
Recent experience indicates
inflation has become increasingly
ingrained in the economy. And
despite recent price softness,
another outburst of inflation cannot be ruled out.
Already conditioned to doubledigit inflation, households and
businesses can now easily lift price
expectations. And wage increases
won in major collective-bargaining
settlements accelerated in the first
quarter of this year despite rising
unemployment and slowing prices.
Long-term interest rates have
remained high and have been rising recently. This suggests borrowers and lenders of long-term
money do not yet expect a sharp
and sustained slowing in the rate
of inflation. Credit market expec6

tations are likely based, in part, on
the large federal deficits planned
for fiscal 1975 and 1976.
Since the economy is depressed,
a sharp pickup in spending will
likely increase the rate of inflation.
But as idle supplies of labor and
materials are drawn down, inflationary pressures could mountand rapidly if business and labor
adjust prices and wages in anticipation of more double-digit inflation. Therefore, it would be
premature to draw long-range
implications from the slower rise
in prices in recent months. Progress toward price stability will be
better measured when the economy moves into advanced stages
of recovery.
Economic policies need to treat
inflation as a long-run problem.
Even in the midst of recession,
monetary and fiscal policies should
be formulated in the knowledge
that excess stimulus will exacerbate inflation later.
And while attention must be
given continuously to aggregate
demand, policies also need to be
initiated to increase aggregate supply. Measures should be addressed
to improving the competitive efficiency of product and factor markets, increasing investment and
productivity, and increasing the
availability of raw materials in
world markets as domestic supplies become exhausted.

-J ohn R. Stodden

-

Urban
Family
Budgets
22 THOUSAND DOLLARS --------------------------------------------------------------

--20

-HIGHER-=-$i~777---- - - - --- - ------ - ------ - ------- - ------ - -------------- - ------- -- - - .

18
16

1"4 __ .!~T~~M~E~!.E--------------------------u.s. BUDGET - $14,333
12
10
-- _____ LOWER - $9198

8

----------~------------ -

6

4

2

.

,:-

o
So

AUSTIN

URCe·. us. Bureau
.

DALLAS HOUSTON

DALLAS HOUSTON

AUSTIN

DALLAS HOUSTON

of Labor Statistics

DeSpite th
..
Prices I e sharp rIse m consumer
the lar a;t ~e~r, family budgets in
belo g r cItIes of Texas remain
itan:rthe average for 39 metropolthe B eas regularly sampled by
Au~~ea~ of. Labor Statistics.
city in ~~ IS stIll the least expensive
fatnily f ~ country for a typical
lIo
0 our. And Dallas and
ust on do not lag far behind.

.......

AUSTIN

Families with what the bureau
considers a low budget find Dallas
less expensive than Houston.
Those with intermediate and high
budgets find their money will go
further in Houston.
Part of the reason for lower living costs in Texas is the absence of
a state income tax. Without a
state tax, Texans pay roughly a

third less in personal income taxes
than the average urban American
family.
But also helping hold down family costs in Texas are the smaller
outlays required for food and housing. Regardless of budget size,
these outlays are less than in most
other cities across the country.
They are especially low in Austin.

n~~.------------------------------------------------------7
llless R eVlew I June 1975
.

New par banks

Citizens Progressive Bank, Columbia, Louisiana, an insured nonmember bank
located in the territory served by the Head Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas, began remitting at par May 1, 1975. The officers are: R. O. Cummings,
President; Johnny W. James, Executive Vice President; Mary L. Douglas,
Cashier; and Frances Childers, Assistant Cashier.
Bank of Sierra Blanca, Sierra Blanca, Texas, a newly organized insured
nonmember bank located in the territory served by the EI Paso Branch of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, opened for business May 8, 1975, remitting at
par. The officers are: Landon Derryberry, President; Leon Goswick, Vice
President (Inactive); and E. A. Wright, Secretary.

8

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
June 1975

Statistical Supplement to the Business Review

--~eekly reporting banks in the
in eVenth District continued to
tn~~~ase th~~ h~ldings of Governendedsecunties m the four weeks
of tn ~~y 14 but reduced holdings
in h ~:IPal securities. The decline
app 0
gs of these securities
res ~ently reflected, in part, a
fin~ ~se t~ recent reports ofthe
City. cial difficulties of New York
in ~~af loan demand kept the rise

small~ bank .credit considerably
ods of t~han m comparable peri-

stren
e ~ast five years. After
Vious gth~lllng markedly in the preBoftene nod,. .
pe a overall loan demand
Busine d gam m the four weeks.
nies In ss loans declined, as compaborrowade net repayments of funds
e
tions in fo: quarterly tax obligaA . Pril.
in gS ~zabl~ inflow of time and savdem eposits offset a decline in
rise ~~d deposits, producing a slight
the pattotal ?eposits. In contrast to
Cn's ern m recent months large
?\fost ~~~~and~ng rose sharpI~.
efforts
e gam resulted from
ance th~~ s?m~ ~arge banks to balshift· It liability structure by
borr:'~ Some debt from short-term
Ing
longer t of Federal funds to
- erm CD's.

!

Depart
enth n;:e?t store sales in the Elevmid-A ~nct turned upward from
increa~ril. to mid-May-the first
clearane SInce post-Christmas
adjuste~e 1es ended. Seasonally
Was up 7' e value of purchases
llted in percent. Retailers attribllpswin cr.e ased buying to an
and to g ~ consumer confidence
W:l espread price reductions.
Seasonall
.
new ca .y adjusted registrations of
POlitanr~ In t~e four largest metroountIes of Texas rose 12

:h

percent in April. Nevertheless,
sales were well below the depressed
level a year earlier. Most of the
recent strength has stemmed from
increased sales of smaller models.

put of utilities was also up slightly,
as the distribution of electricity
increased.

Agricultural conditions in states of
the Eleventh District were generAfter remaining stable most of the
ally favorable in May. Planting
first quarter of 1975, the labor marof cotton, corn, and sorghum,
ket in the five southwestern states
though lagging year-earlier scheddeteriorated in April. Employment
ules, was progressing well. Seeding
in all job categories except governof rice in Louisiana and Texas was
ment was lower than in March,
ahead of schedule and, by mid-May,
was nearly completed.
with the largest reductions in durable goods manufacturing and conWheat, oat, and flax harvests,
struction.
after being delayed by wet weather,
were underway in southern areas of
As a result, unemployment was
up sharply. The number of jobless
the District. Based on May 1 conditions, the winter wheat crop in the
workers rose 8 percent to a level
nearly two-thirds higher than a
five southwestern states had been
year before. And the unemployestimated at 342 million bushelstwo-thirds larger than drouthment rate reached 7.2 percent, up
plagued production last year.
from 6.7 percent in March.
Pasture and range conditions
were good. Spring rains had
The decline in industrial output in
Texas appears to have bottomed
improved soil moisture in most of
out. The seasonally adjusted Texas
the District. But in South Texas,
limited moisture was curtailing
industrial production index, which
grazing.
had trended downward for three
Cattle feeding was still depressed.
months before leveling off in
Compared with a year earlier, cattle
March, rose modestly in April.
on feed in Texas on May 1 had been
In manufacturing, strength was
. widespread among major industries reduced by half. And in Arizona,
nearly 40 percent fewer head were
in the state. But primarily because
being fed. Even though the number
of substantial declines in the outof cattle and calves slaughtered in
put of chemicals and primary
the first four months ofthis year
metals, total manufacturing was
was 45 percent higher than in the
down from the previous month.
Chemical production has trended same period last year, the liveweight total was 33 percent higherdownward since late in 1974, as
many users have reduced purchases reflecting a falloff in the average
weight of cattle marketed.
while continuing to liquidate large
After declining for five months,
inventories built up last year. And
the index of prices received by farmfurther cutbacks in the manuers and ranchers in Texas rose 6
facture of reinforcing steel bars,
percent in the month ended April
reflecting sluggishness in construc15. Higher prices for wool and
tion, contributed to restricted promohair and meat animals lifted
duction of primary metals.
Mining rose, on the strength of
prices for livestock and livestock
gains in crude oil recovery. The out- (Continued on back page)

CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District

--

(Thousand dollars)
May 14,
1975

ASSETS
Federal fund s sold and securities purchased
under agreements to resell ........ ..
Other loans and discounts, gross .. .
Commercial and Industrial loans ..
Agricultural loans, excluding CCC
certificates of Interest .... ................................. ..
Loans to brokers and dealers for
purchasing or carrying :
U.S. Government securities ........ .. .................... ..
Other securities ................................................ ..
Other loans for purchasing or carrying:
U.S. Government securities ................ ............... .
Other securities .............. .......... ........................ ..
Loans to nonbank financial Institutions:
Sales finance , personal finance, factors ,
and other business credit companies .... .. .. ... .
Other ......... .......... .
Real estate loans ........................ .
Loans to domestic commercial banks .... .
Loans to foreign banks .. .. ..................... .
Consumer Instalment loans .............. ..
Loans to foreign governments, official
Institutions, central banks, and International
Institutions ........................ ..
Other loans .............................. ..
Total Investm ents .........
.. ......................... ..
Total U.S. Government securities ...................... .. ..
Treasury bills ............
.. .......................... .
Treasury certificates of Indebtedness ............... .
Treasury notes and U.S. Government
bonds maturing :
Withi n 1 year .......... ..
1 year to 5 years ............................................ ..
After 5 years ...... .. .......... ................ .
Obligations of states and pelltlcal subdivisions:
Tax warrants and short-term notes and bills .. ..
All other .... .... ...... .. ............................................. .
Other bonds, corperate stocks, and securities:
Certificates representing participations In
federal agency, loans .. ...................... ..
All other (Includ ng corporate stocks) .. .......... .. ..
Cash Items In process of collection ........................ ..
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank .... .... ..
Currency and coin .................................................. ..
Balances with banks In the United States .... ..
Balances with banks In foreign countries .... .......... ..
Other assets (Including Investments In subsidiaries
not consolidated) ..........
.. ...................... ..
TOTAL ASSETS ............................................... .

Apr. 16,
1975

Ma~ 15,

1 74

1,311 ,149
1,889,475
1,945,167
10,471 ,306 10,466,314 10,166,471
5,061,594

5,081,684

4,510,536

190,645

195,086

273,490

200
27,488

200
26,835

1,264
48,014

2,226
388 ,179

2,334
394,543

3,789
448,71 0

134,961
588,353
1,519,107
63,532
91 ,618
1,101,941

139,618
569,145
1,495,489
44,889
88,548
1,109,270

156,615
760,703
1,497,064
45,512
72,370
1,039,665

3
1,301 ,459
4,834,296

5
1,318,668
4,796,629

17
1,308,722
4,240,139

1,264,325
199,797
0

1,249,044
198,083
0

1,002,433
162,003
0

May 14,
1975

LIABILITIES

16,168,136 16,162,422

Total deposits
Total denland depeslts .. ................ ....................... .
Individuals, partnerships , and corporations .. .. ..
States and political subdivisions ...................... ..
U.S. Government ... .. .... .. .................................... .
Banks In the United States .. .... ..
Foreign :
Governments, official Institutions, central
banks, and International Institutions .. .. .. .. ..
Commercial banks .............. ........... ............ .... .
Certified and officers' checks, etc . .. ............... .. .
Total time and savings deposits .............. ............. .
Individuals, partnerships, and corporations:
Savings depeslts ................ ............ .............. ..
Other time depeslts .... .. ........................ ........ ..
States and political subdivisions ................ ...
U.S. Government (Including postal savings).
Banks In the United States ............ .................. ..
Foreign :
Governments, official Institutions, central
banks, and International Institutions
Commercial banks ................. .
Federal funds purchased and securities sold
under aweements to repurchase ....................... ..
Other lIabl Itles for borrowed money .. .................. .
Other liabilities ...................................... ................ .
Reserves on loans ..... .. .... ................ .. .
Reserves on securities .... ................ ....... .
Total capital accounts .................... .......... .
TOTAL LIABILITIES, RESERVES , AND
CAPITAL ACCOUNTS .................. .

227,914
686,426
150,188

220,847
692,987
137,127
105,121
3,140,909
5,404
296,151
1,547,846
1,203,379
130,306
462,694
27,396

44,661
239,727
1,612,389
882,057
126,894
479,415
31 ,175

1,025,563

1,002,684

19,677,529

7,165,4

3,274
64,394
110,541
8,700,771

2,622
69,435
141,801
8,489,806

62:8 77
116,499
7,361,723

1,297,828
4,667,454
2,343,225
9,724
353,872

1,273,222
4,452,336
2,401 ,581
9,857
325,277

4,070,~0

23,161
5,507

22,133
5,400

2,902,332
56,864
631,504
202,722
22,199
1,474,816

3,020,047
80,917
578,629
204,526
22,183
1,457,979

---- - ---

5,139,8~

543,1
118,146
1,181,800

310 3

1,158,5~

2,01~'989
80:538

12,1~~

14,1

2,898,3~~
198,4

535,9 08
173,7 11
24,2 88
1 319,652
~

~
::::::::--

DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Averages of dally figures. Million dollars)

--'

TIMEDEPO~

DEMAND DEPOSITS
Date

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Million dollars)

item

Apr. 30,
1975

Mar. 26,
1975

Apr. 24,
1974

ASSETS
Loans and discounts, gross
U.S. Government obligations
Other securities ...................................
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ...................
Cash In vault ....
Balances with banks i ':'''iii;; ·Unlted''Siiiies ·::.
Balances with banks In foreign countrles e
Cash Items In process of collection .
.
Other assets e .... .. ....

21,345
2,546
7,384
1,912
375
1,455
33
1,821
1,884

22 ,115
2,296
7,319
1,762
374
1,406
36
1,704
1,837

20,465
2,301
6,592
1,856
363
1,286
23
1,614
1,621

38,755

38,849

36,121

Total

Adjusted '

U.S.
Government

1973: April ...... .. .. .. ..
1974: Aprll. .. .. .... .....
May .. .......... ..
June .... .... .. ..
July .....
August.. .. ... ...
September ....
October ........
November ....
December ...
1975: January .. ......
February .. ....
March .
April ..

CONDITION STATISTICS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS

TOTAL ASSETse .

.:....:-16

7,672,636
5,604,107
404,441
140,509
1,309,721

827,840

21,458,573 21 ,526,723

.14527,139

176,326
2,776,992

5,450
353,438
1,486,942
1,090,545
131,038
448 ,955
24,761

Ma~16,
1 74

7,467,365
5,461,930
490,626
56,108
1,280,492

21,458,573 21 ,526,723

118,490
539,345
182,595

104,958
3,106,125

Apr. 16,
1975

13,237
13,984
13,553
13,742
13,809
13,634
13,740
13,687
13,843
14,351
14,180
13,956
14,114
14,247

9,550
10,289
9,880
10,030
10,056
9,988
9,973
9,976
10,148
10,355
10,353
10,245
10,349
10,572

331
236
278
240
212
175
222
149
138
208
166
150
165
213

Total

1. Other than those of U.S. Government and domestic commercial
Items In process of collection

RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Averages of dally figures. Thousand dollars)

LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS
Demand depOSits of banks ........
Other demand depeslts
...........................
Time deposits
................. , ....

1,695
12,592
17,194

1,721
12,181
17,315

1,643
11,937
15,116

Total depeslts .............. .......... ,,, ............ ,,.
Borrowings .....................
Other lIabllitlese ..... .. ...... .. .. ........... .... ............. " ....
Total capital accountse .................... ...... " ...........

4 weeks ended
4 weeks ended
4 weekS ~~74
------------------------------------------~:.ded
Item
Apr. 30, 1975
Apr. 2, 1975
M~

31 ,481
2,938
1,625
2,711

31 ,217
3,265
1,682
2,685

28,696
3,543
1,351
2,531

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : - : 2 0 1 7 , 914
Total reserves held ............
2,022,415
1,995,532
1'693,850
With Federal Reserve Bank ........
1,674,984
1,660,621
'324,064
Currency and coin ............. .... .....
347,431
334,911
2013,092
Required reserves .......
2,008,628
1,985,320
' 4 822
Excess reserves .
13,787
10,212
114:280

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
ACCOUNTSe .............. .............. .
e-Estlmated

. :. . . . . . . . . . . .

~~:~~:~~~e.s

::~~g

---'

9,~~~~

--------------------------------------

BANK DEBIT

S, END-OF-MONTH DEPOSITS, AND DEPOSIT TURNOVER

SMSA's I
(00
n Eleventh Federal Reserve District
liar amount I
-.
s n thoussnds, seasonally adjusted)
DEBITS TO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS'
DEMAND DEPOSITS'
Percent change
Standard metropolitan
statistical area
ARIZONA.~~~--______~~=LOU
: Tucson
ISIANA: Monroe '
.................. .. . ..............................

Annual rate
A
,
Apr. 1975 from
4 months,
of turnover
(Annual-rate
Mar.
Apr.
1975 from
Apr. 30,
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
~
b~a~SI~S)~____~19~7~5~__~
1:97~4~____~'9~7~4________'~9~7:5______~':97 5~__~'~9~75~____~~7~4~__
~
'9

__________________

:~}~~j~~,2",i,

Brownsvllle-Harlingen_Sa~nJ:n'li'o""""" " """ " '" ... ... . ........

t;!;

$17,754,739

7%

16%

28

12

3
5
3
0
9
6
16
3
32
21
2
24
2
27

'f

fEr~~~~~i~;~:~J:~·: : :;: : : :":';:·.: ".: :: : : : : :;.: : : : : : : : : : JiiHU

W~~~t~::~~il~ :'::<::::::::"" ''':::: .. :: .. ::: .. ::::::::.: .::.:..............

1. Dep

................ ....... .....................

g~~,~~~

~~

5,047,880

- 10

~:gg~:!g~

~

................ ............................................................ $795,618,588

16

~~:m

12

181,820

27.7

30.5

$13,702,906

57.3

55.7

53.6

350,413
128,270
60,905
300,629
44,047
3,150,723
318,603
940,851
147,969
3,924,883
124,253
71,325
234,857
173,011

~~

fil

32.3
31 .5
32.0
39.0
17.8
85.7
49.1
43.3
34.7
65.3
24.5
31.2
43.4
29.7

30.8
31 .1
28.8
40.3
19.9
79.7
39.8
43.8
33.7
66.8
21 .9
28.7
43.3
27.2

!iHH lH

~r

12%

2%

44 .2

~i:ili ~I

5
10
7
2
10
6
1
3
29
26
6
14
- 16
23

Ii
7

=
!

47.2

40.6
44.1
51 .1
23.1
25.4
46.8
51.7
34.6
29.8
30.7
40.9
17.0
81.9
43.7
44.2
28.7
58.8
24.1
27.2
40.3
25.5
16.2
23.3
27.8
34.0
20.0
22.8
25.3
32.3
28.3

fi

o

iot I
a-30centers

$371,318

! JI 'I

~ml~

11,292,005

12
- 4
- 8
7
18
- 1
5
-3
14
11

~1~~rkana(TeXaa_A~k·ansa·s)·.· .'.::: .. :: .. : ::"'::::::'::.... ......

9%

13%

m:ggi

iH

~g:f

~~:~

~~j

~i:~

2. Co uOslta of Individuals
nty basis
' partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions

CONDITION
OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS

(Thou

sand dOllars)

............
i

~----------------

¥.
.s

~~I.n..a.~t~.al.. ·:

Mal21 ,
1 75

May 22,
1974

422,062
0
0
263,884
4,311 ,707
4,575,591
1,972,160

264,629
179,683
0
119,527
3,500,214
3,799,424
1,557,918

1,010,255
29,1 00
0
235 ,748
3,716,045
3,980,893
1,829,059

2,467,527

2,674,191

VALUe OFC
(Million d
...............lI ars)

ONSTRUCTJON CONTRACTS

~---------------January-April

~

Area and type
IVESO

Apr.

Mar.

Feb.

~~~____~~7 __~ ~___ '~9~7~5____~19~7~5____~ r _
1 9 ~5~ 1~9~75
1~97~4~

SiATE~~HWESTERN

ReSide t ........
Non. n lal bulidi;; """"""""
1,724
1,167
693
4,334
3,591
Nonb~~:ddel ntlal bUII~i~ii"""'"
410
325
231
1,230
1,478
UNliE
ngconstructl, """"
596
619
335
1,869
1,390
Resl~STATES .....
on ....
718
223
128
1,234
722
NOnreentlal bUlldlri ""''''''''''''
9,598
6,574
4,955
26,096
28,184
NOnbuSldential bUII~i~""""'"
3,029
2,316
1,583
8,470
11,860
Ildlng COnstru ~ ........
2,987
2,402
2,199
9,726
10,015
ArllOn
--:;;;-;:;ct:o-::n:-;....
__...:.
1:,8::5::6____
__
____
N-ReYls a, LOUIsiana N
SDiE: ~d
, ew Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
DURCE·etalis may not a
. F. W. DOdge MddGto totals because of rounding.
, c raw-Hili , Inc.

~.

-:-_3.:.,5:-:8:.:2~

VALUATION (Dollar amounts In thou sands)

Apr. 23,
1975

2,705,572

Item
otal gOld
Loans to Certificate reserves
Othen member bank
'" .......
~ederaf:ns "'" '" .s ""'" """ '''' """"""'"
GOy gency Obligatio ns " . .. . . "'"
Otal earernment SeCUrltl .. """"""
Memba nlng assets
es . "'" ''''''
~ad
r bank re
""""" .
serve depOSits
eral rese
............ , .........

BUILDING PERMITS

',:,': .:. ~ ...:.7.:
17.::2
,9~0~0

...:6~,:::30:9:...-

Percent change
Apr. 1975
from

NUMBER

Area

Apr.
1975

ARIZONA
552
Tucson ....
LOUISIANA
Monroe93
West Monroe ....
Shreveport ........ 743
TEXAS
112
Abilene ...
311
Amarillo ....
527
Austin,...... ..
Beaumont ........ 213
Brownsville ...... 111
Corpus Christi .. 268
Dallas ................ 1,924
90
Denison ...........
EI Paso .............. 568
382
Fort Worth .......
62
Galveston ........
Houston ............ 1,806
57
Laredo ...........
Lubbock ........... 199
117
Midland ............
145
Odessa ......... .....
99
Port Arthur ........
San Angelo ......
80
San Antonio ...... 1,494
41
Sherman ..........
62
Texarkana ........
Waco ................ 234
Wichita Falls ....
121
Total-26 cities .... 10,411

4 mos.

1975

Apr.
1975

4 mos.
1975

Mar.
1975

Apr.
1974

265%

228%

4 months,
1975 from
1974

1,893

$21,052

$37,231

278
2,139

1,367
8,280

5,131
18,823

59
121

25
- 26

- 21
- 44

372
969
1,659
806
450
961
6,203
150
1,646
1,364
189
7,398
239
563
435
445
295
265
5,420
117
226
784
349

6,312
5,632
13,314
2,043
858
15,331
18,532
205
13,430
25,293
253
51 ,874
480
8,814
2,226
1,156
274
1,315
13,447
489
597
1,405
1,125

11,384
16,165
41,761
10,213
2,937
24,231
91 ,019
826
45,232
48,308
1,870
189,781
3,271
56,109
7,908
7,196
1,122
4,371
38,405
2,006
1,835
4,932
6,219

213
31
91
- 52
12
848
- 19
7
134
73
36
17
- 76
- 78
0
- 52
- 16
- 2
15
- 13
64
120
- 65

363
27
- 29
- 88
- 22
412
- 48
125
- 19
-23
- 75
- 20
170
- 3
63
5
50
39
- 38
- 31
- 4
- 62
- 61

149
- 22
- 49
- 55
- 74
74
- 19
23
- 38
- 39
- 66
- 19
234
1
- 49
- 15
27
14
- 55
11
- 15
-68
17

- 16%

- 27%

35,615

$215,104

$678,286

18%

19%

DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(Thousand barrels)

Five Southwestern States'
Perc ent change from

Area
FOUR SOUTHWESTERN
STATES .... .
Louisiana .... .
New Mexico ..
Oklahoma ........... .... ..
Texas .......
Gulf Coast ...
West Texas ....
East Texas ( proper) ... ..
Panhandle ............... .
Rest of state .... .
UNITED STATES .... .

Apr.
1975

Mar.
1975

Apr.
1974r

Mar.
1974r

Apr.
1974

5,880.5
1,800.0
260.0
461 .5
3,359.0
650.3
1,796.3
217.7
58.0
636.7
8,389.4

5,882.3
1,801 .1
261 .6
450.4
3,369.2
652.0
1,806.7
21 5.6
58.0
636.9
8,394.5

6,361 .7
2,121 .7
270.9
466 .0
3,503. 1
687 .9
1,838.0
201 .7
60 .5
715 .0
8,952.4

0.0%
-. 1
- .6
2.5
- .3
-.3
- .6
1.0
.0
.0
-. 1%

- 7.6%
- 15.2
- 4.0
- 1.0
- 4.1
- 5.5
- 2.3
7.9
- 4.1
- 11.0
- 6.3%

r- Revlsed
SOURCES: American Petroleum Institute
U.S. Bureau of Mines
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Percent change

Apr. 197~

, Thou sands of persons

Apr.
1974

Apr.
1975p

Item
Civil ian labor forc e
Total employment ..... : .. ::: ...
Tot al unemployment..
Unemploym ent rate ...
Total nonagricultural wag e
and salary employment ......
Manufacturing ..
Durable ....... ...................
Nondurable ........
Nonmanufacturlng
Min ing .. ......
Construction ...........
Transportation and
public utilities
Trade ........
Finance
Service ........
Government " ...... .............

Mar.
1975

Apr.
1974r

Mar.
1975

9,238.3
8,571 .0
667.4
7.2%

9,240,7
8,623 .5
617.2
6.7%

8,946.6
8,527.6
419.0
4.7%

0.0%
-.6
8.1
' .5

7,546.0
1,244.6
699.4
545.2
6,301.4
266.5
487.4

7,581 .0
1,252.5
705.3
547.2
6,328 .6
266.8
500.0

7,523.4
1,320.4
745.2
575.2
6,203.0
255.2
519.6

503.9
1,808.1
416.9
1,294.1
1,524 .5

506.0
1,814 .0
420.1
1,300.8
1,520.9

51 2.1
1,776.0
407.8
1,263.1
1,469.1

1. Ari zona, Lou isiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
2. Actu al ch ange
p- Prellmln ary
r- Revlsed
NOTE: Details may not add to totals because of rounding .
SOURCES : State employment agencies
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (seasonal adjustm ent)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

--

( Seasonally adjusted)

--;;;
.5
59.3
'2.5
.3
_ 5,7
_ 6.1
_ 5.2

- .5
- .6
- .8
- .4
- .4
- .1
- 2.5
-

1.6
4.4
_6.2

.4
.3
.8
.5
.2%

_1.6
1.6
2.2
2.5~
3.6

---

(Seasonally adjusted Indexes, 1967 - 100)

Area and type of Index
TEXAS
Total Industrial production
Manufacturing
Durable
Nondurable
." ....................
Min ing ....
............... ",.,,, ..
Utilities ..
UNITED STATES
Total Industri al production .
Manufac turing ..
Dureble ....
Nondura ble
Mining ..
Utilities ..

Apr.
1975p

Mar.
1975

Feb.
1975

Apr.
1974

133.3
138.0
158.3
123.3
112.5
169,0

132.9
138.4
157.9
124.3
110.4
167.7

133.4r
138.7
157.6
125.1
112.6r
164.0r

138.2
143.9
158.7
133.2
117.5
164.9

109.4
107.7
102.8
114.8
105.9
150.4

109.8
107.8
103.0
114.8
106.4
150.2

111.2r
109.3r
104.8r
115.8r
107.0r
150.5r

124.9
124.8
120.7r
130.4r
111.3
148.7

p- Prellmlnary
r- Revl sed
SOURCES : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

products 10 percent over a month
before, Even with the upturn in
April, however, the index averaged
15 percent lower than a year before.
Prices for cotton, food grains, and
meat animals had tumbled significantly.
Meanwhile, the index of prices
paid by farmers and ranchers
moved up 2 percent in April. The
index was 11 percent higher than a
year earlier, as prices for fertilizer
and liming materials-mixed fertilizer and nitrogen, in particularhad increased markedly.

WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION
(Thousand bushels)
1975,
Indic ated
May 1

Area
Arizon a .
Louisian a
New Mexico
Oklahoma
T exas ... ......
Tot al.

...................

............ " ......

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Cash receipts from farm and
ranch marketings in states of the
District in the first three months of
1975 totaled $2 .1 billion, 28 percent
less than a year before. Crop sales
were 29 percent lower, while livestock sales were down 26 percent.

1974

20,300
550
10,696
172,500
137,500

15,510
600
2,835
134,400
52,800

341 ,546

206,145

---

~
0

15,12
396
8526
157:800
98,60 0

-

~