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MONTHLY
BUSINESS
REVIEW
of
the
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of Dallas
Volume 30
Dallas, Texas, June 1, 1945
DISTRICT SUMMARY
~ eather conditions continued to have diverse effects upon
~grlCultural developments in this district during April and the
b r~t half of May, field operations and crop growth generally
/In~ retarded by excessive rainfall in the eastern half of the
Istnct and by moisture deficiency over a large part of the westehn half. Prospective production of wheat in Texas decreased
s arply, the May 1 estimate being about 25 per cent lower than
a month earlier. Despite a moisture deficiency in some areas,
rangkes on the whole are in better than average condition. LiveStoc . have made good gains and are moving to market in sub~~~ntlal v?lume at higher prices than a year ago. The value of
I structlon contracts awarded declined 17 per cent from the
rge
March volume but were more than double that in April
aa~: year. J?aily average petroleum production in April reached
Drilf all-tl~e. peak at a level 12 per cent higher than a year ago.
Ing activity continued to expand. Consumer buying at depa1tme.nt stores declined more than seasonally in April and was
on y slIghtly larger than in the corresponding month last year.
t
BUSINESS
S~les at reporting department stores in this district during
pnl Were at approximately the same level as a year ago and 21
p~~ cent lower than the March sales to which Easter buying contn uted so heavily. Indications from weekly reporting firms
seed- to allay any fears that V -E Day would bring about imme lately a substantial change in consumer demand at department stores. Sales during the first two weeks of May this year
v:e~e per cent higher than a year ago. Among the principal
Cities In which gains in April sales over a year ago were reported
were San Antonio, Dallas, and Fort Worth, while decreases were
reported in Shreveport and Houston. During the first four
~nths of this year, sales in the district were 15 per cent higher
t an those for the comparable period a year ago.
A
?
~n tpril ~he ratio of cash sales to total sales was 52 per cent,
an ht e ratio of collections during the month to outstandings
a.t t first of the month was 65 per cent. Neither ratio changed
SlgtU cantly from that of a month ago or a year ago.
.fi
Sales at reporting furniture firms in April were at approxi-
~thly the same level as last year but were 11 per cent less than
J
e preceding month. On the other hand, inventories at the
en o~ the month were 1 per cent lower than last year and 5 per
ce~t gher than a month earlier. Cash sales during both March
a~ April represented 23 per cent of total sales, whereas in April
o 1944 this ratio stood at 19 per cent.
1Q
. Tt~
furniture trade represents an important type of business
w lch credit plays a very significant role. As a result of the
ma~~ed expansion in consumer incomes, as well as Government
cre It regulations, during the war years cash sales increased
ap
.
I
'
. prOXimate y four-fold from 1939 to 1944, whereas total sales
~~;:44 were only about one and one-half times the .amount ~
h . In other words, the tremendous percentage mcrease m
cas Isales becomes less significant when the ratio of cash sales to
~ota sales i~ analyzed. This ratio, which stood at approximately
hPer cent m 1939, had increased to 19 per cent in 1944. AIthough there has been a considerable expansion in cash sales over
~ e ~ast fiye y~ars, roughly four-fifths of every dollar spent on
~rUi~ure 1Q thiS district during 1944 involved a credit transaction, ut credit regulations h~ve shortened considerably the time
1Q
Number 4
element involved in credit transactions. Year-end accounts receivable have shown a marked downward trend since 1941 and
at the end of 1944 were approximately 45 per cent lower than
at the close of 1939.
The dollar value of year-end inventories at a selected group of
reporting firms, after rising sharply in 1941, declined in subsequent years and in 1944 was 11 per cent below those reported
in 1939. The decrease in the physical volume of inventories between the end of 1939 and the close of 1944 was probably much
larger than the decline in dollar value, since prices have increased
considerably during the war period.
According to Dun and Bradstreet, Incorporated, no business
failures were reported in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District
during the month of April, and only one such failure has been
reported during the first four months of this year.
AGRICULTURE
Excessive rains continued during April over most of the eastern half of the district, further delaying necessary spring field
work which is behind schedule for the district as a whole, although more favorable weather during the first half of May
permitted considerable progress in all areas. Rainfall in midMay over the northern and eastern areas, while temporarily retarding field work, was generally beneficial to growing crops,
but some fields in the lowlands are still too wet to work. In a
considerable part of the western half of the district, continued
dry weather, especially in northwestern and western areas, further threatened the wheat crop; and in many western and southwestern counties additional moisture is needed for both land
preparation and growing crops. Considerable hail damage was
reported from many sections of Texas, oth~r than the High
Plains and far western areas. Range conditions are favorable except in local areas, with cattle and sheep in good condition and
moving to market in volume.
The May 1 estimate of the 1945 Texas wheat crop, as reported
by the Department of Agriculture, is now placed at 56,562,000
bushels, as compared with an indicated yield of 75,420,000
bushels on April 1, representing a decline during the month of
about 19,000,000 bushels. Adverse weather during April, with
excessive rainfall in north-central wheat districts, freezes in the
southern counties of the High Plains, and continued dry weather
in the heavy producing areas of the northern High Plains, caused
heavier damage than had been anticipated and accounted for the
sharp reduction in the over-all forecast for the State. The indicated yield on May 1 was 12.5 bushels per acre, as compared
with 15.0 bushels a month earlier and an actual yield of 19.0
bushels in 1944. Although the indicated production of 56,562,000 bushels is nearly double the 10-year (1934-1943) average
of 30,377,000 bushels, it represents a decline of approximately
25 per cent from last year's record crop of 74,746,000 bushels .
Some wheat acreage in the Low Rolling Plains is being grazed
or plowed under; and total abandonment is now indicated at 10
per cent of seeded acreage, leaving 4,028,000 acres for harvest
this year, as compared with 3,934,000 acres in 1944 and 2,954,000 acres for the 10-year average. Stocks of wheat at interior
Texas mills on April 1, 1945 were estimated by the Department
of Agriculture at 7,520,000 bushels, as compared with 1,305,000 bushels a year earlier and 4,381,000 bushels for the 9-year
(1934-1943) average. Farm stocks of wheat in Texas on April 1
This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org)
2
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
were estimated at 5,980,000 bushels, as compared with 16,440,000 bushels held on January 1, 1945, and 2,364,000 bushels held
on April 1 a year ago. Combined interior mill and farm stocks
on April 1 totaled 13,500,000 bushels, indicating a disappearance during the quarter of about 13,500,000 bushels, as compared with approximately 10,500,000 bushels in the same period
last year and an average of about 3,225,000 bushels during the
preceding nine years.
Corn planting has been irregular in southern and central
counties, and condition of growing crops in these areas is only
fair. Much of the acreage intended for corn in the important
north-central and eastern areas had not been planted by the
middle of May, and considerable abandonment is expected.
Cotton planting, which had been delayed by adverse weather
conditions in April, made good progress early in May in northern
black land and northeastern counties but had not been started
in the High Plains due to the moisture deficiency. Some replanting has been necessary in south-central, central and southern
counties, but early cotton is being chopped in the south; squares
arc reported in the Coastal Bend area, and some cotton is blooming in the Lower Valley, with insect activity in evidence. Planting of such crops as rice, peanuts and sorghums is well advanced,
and alfalfa is being cut in western and some eastern counties.
Heavy rains early in the season retarded planting and harvesting operations in the commercial vegetable areas in April, but
good weather developed in May and fields are being actively
worked and are recovering to some extent from unfavorable
conditions caused by excessive moisture. While the rains replenished irrigation water supplies and were beneficial to the Rio
Grande Valley tomato crop and south Texas cucumber crop,
they were harmful in the late spring onion, potato and tomato
areas. Considerable insect damage is reported in the early cantaloupe and watermelon areas, but the green corn crop improved
both in the irrigated districts of the Lower Valley and in other
early areas. With the exception of the extreme northwestern
counties, fruit and nut prospects continued good. Peach production was indicated on May 1 at 2,394,000 bushels, as compared
with 1,517,000 bushels last year and 1,567,000 bushels for the
10-year average.
Production of Texas grapefruit during the 1944-45 season is
now estimated at 21,800,000 boxes, representing increases of
about 4 per cent over earlier estimates and of 23 per cent above
the record crop harvested last season. The estimated orange production for the current season indicates a record harvest of 4,000,000 boxes, with favorable prospects for the 1945-1946
crop. Despite the fact that harvest of the Texas grapefruit crop
of the 1944-1945 season is practically over, the Office of Price
Administration on May 4 changed the basing point on white
Texas grapefruit from Homestead, Florida, to Weslaco, Texas,
for the remainder of the season, in order to permit shipments
into northeastern areas without excessive freight penalties for
the purpose of offsetting in part the deficiency in Florida grapefruit caused by the hurricane damage earlier in the season. Carlot shipments have continued in volume, and total movements
through May 19 were abollt 33 per cent above those for the
entire preceding season.
CASH FARM INCOMF.
(Thousnnd, of dollars)
~ ~'ebrunry 1945
'I'oL,1 reeeipls----~Rcccipl' from- Februnry Februnry
Jnn. 1 to Feb . 28
Crops Livestock"
19<15
1944
1915
1944
Arizona................ .
0,116
2,491
8,607
8,492
21,300
21,~~~
Loui.iona .... .... . .. ,. .. .
7,358
3,49a
10,851
11,445
20,382
30'931
New Mexieo.............
3,560
1,715
5,275
4,373
12,169
9'-39
Oklnhoma ........... ,... 11,204
17,456
28,660
21,709
01 ,762
48'~62
Texas..... . . ...... ...... 46,650
31,a05
78,045
67,954
156,479
15Y,
Total......... 74,888
50,550
131,438
113,973
281,101
'Includes rcceipts from the RUle of Iivestoek and livestock products.
SOURCE: United Stales Department of Agriculture.
208.2To
LIVESTOCK RECEIPT8-(Number)
~FortW"rth--~-
April
1045
Cattle .................. . 127,483
Cnlves . ................ . 18,008
42,044
170,242
M~!'p.·:: ::::::::: :::::::
April
1041
86,813
10,187
112,565
108,332
March
1045
56,333
22,0 17
47,007
05,813
April
1045
26,328
10,569
6,203
43,354
San Antonio--;
April
MlITc
1944
1045
24,056
20,U~
21,354
13, 81
13,071
7,1
10,073
22,8i1
COMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICES
(Dollars per hundred weight)
Sau Antonio ----"'h
- - - F o r t Worth,---~April
Marc
April
March
April
April
1044
1045
1045
1045
1945
1044
S14.50
$15. 25
S15.75
$10.25
Beef sleers ..... ......... . S10.50
S15.50
14.00
14.50
14.00
Stocker steers .... . . .... . .
14.50
15.00
16.50
16.50
15.50
Heifers and yearlinge ..... .
12.50
12.75
13.00
12.50
Butohcr COW" ........... .
12.00
l::~
14.50
14.50
15.00
14 .50
Cnlvcs ................. .
iU~
14.55
14 .55
\4 .55
14 .55
13.65
Hogs .................. .
13.65
15.00
14.50
10.00
15.75
15.00
L..mbs .... , ......... ... .
'ids
COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS
~--- Texa,
United States----August 1 to April 30
August I to April 30
'l'his senson
Last ~cnson
This Henson
Last season
Cottonseed reecivod at mills
031,170
005,481
4,253 ,901
3,880, 185
(tons) ... ..... ............ .
3,773,887
3,601,255
830,455
802,821
Cotton,eed crushed (tons) .... .
Cottonseed on hand ApTlI 30
286,706
591,620
132,361
57,320
(tons) .................... .
Production of produets:
1,152,13 1
1,109,147
268,578
254,020
Crude oil (thousnnd Ibs.) ... .
1712,526
1,732,321
424,186
302,775
Cake and menl (toilS) ..... .
'S63,30 1
873,766
210,930
Hl~1s (tons) ..... ......... .
103,387
1.102,558
1,104,828
Linters (runniug bales) ..... .
253,332
267,076
Stoeks on hand April 30:
24,375
29,860
Crude oil (thousand Ibs.). . . .
8,964
10,724
59,205
104,345
15,270
Cnke and meal (tons). . . . . . .
26,807
25,711
06,035
4,202
Uulls (tons) . . . ... .........
21,401
216,063
Lintere (running bales).. . . . .
10,528
70,855
58,979
SOURCE: United States Burenu of Census.
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON-(Bales)
April
April
Mareh
August 1 to AI"i130
1945
1044
1945
'I'h;" season Lnet seasen
Consumption at:
lIi,282
15,533
17,041
141,808
!li4,0 ID
'I'c""" mill•..... .........
760,678
775,017
857,603
7,280,11 1
7,581,333
United States mills .. . ... .
U. S. stoeks-end of mOllth:
In consuming ostablO 't~.. . 2,187,016
2,22 1,530
Public Btg. '" eompros.~cs ... 11,025,514 10,272,200
...... . .
during March was estimated at 11,800,000 chicks, as compar~
with 13,300,000 in March, 1944, and the record high of 15,'
985,000 during March, 1943.
Range feeds and past~re grasses continued to make season;
improvements throughout the district as a whole during ~Pl1l
although some counties of the High Plains, western countlCS 0
1
the Edwards Plateau, a~d parts of ~he ~rans-Pccos C?untrf all\i
of southern New MeXICO were still w1thout effect1ve ra1n£a
needed to revive range vegetation and to replenish stock wa ceJ
supplies. The condition of Texas ranges on May 1, at 88 p~
cent, increased 1 point during April and was 6 points above cI.i
20-year (1924-1943) average for that date. Cattle made g()O"
gains and were generally in good flesh with a good calf ccof
Production of eggs during April in Texas was estimated at reported in all areas, and the May 1 condition of 86 t:>er cent £~
436,000,000, a decline of 9 per cent from the record of 480,- Texas cattle was slightly above that a month earher and l
000,000 eggs produced in April a year earlier. On the other 20-year average. Sheep and lambs have made good ~ai11S, and . ~
condition of 90 per cent on May 1 represented a gam of 3 POIll
hand, 'both the number of layers on farms and eggs laid per
during the month and was 5 points above the 20-year avera~;
100 hens continue at levels well above any pre-war year. The A much better than average lamb crop is reported from "! ,
current meat situation has caused an exceptionally strong de- tually all areas and, despite delays occasioned by frequent ral~:
mand for baby chicks and on April 1 was greater than the ability and cool weather, shearing is under way in most sections. :Ma~\
of commercial hatcheries to supply, cue largely to the shortage ketings of early lambs, yearlings and sheep were larger in Aptl
of satisfactory hatching eggs. The output of Texas hatcheries than a year ago.
d
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
During April, total receipts of cattle, calves, hogs and sheep
at the Fort Worth and San Antonio markets increased about 62
per cent Over those in the previous month and were 12. per cent
more than those in April a year earlier. Despite a declll1e of 58
;cr cent in hog marketings, total receipts of livestock at the two
narkets for the first four months of 1945 exceeded those for
the same period last year by about 2 per cent.
Prices received in April by Texas farmers, as reported by the
Department of Agriculture showed moderate gains for grain
srrghu ms , Irish potatoes, sw~et potatoes, beef cattle, veal calves,
leep, c!lickens, eggs, wool, and citrus fruits. On the other
.and, sltght seasonal declines were indicated for oats, barley,
n~~, COtton, cottonseed, peanuts, butterfat, lambs and all hay,
W lile prices for such products as wheat, corn, cowpeas, hogs
~~~ butter r~mained at about the same level as in March. P.rices
meat anunals and most livestock products were conSlderably higher than those in April last year, but most farm products Were at a lower level.
h
FINANCE
haJh~ reserve bala.nces ?f member ban~s in this dist~ict, which
rIsen substantially 111 March rema111ed at the higher level
.
111 A ~n'1 and then increased sharply
'
in the first hal£ of May,
reaching an all-time peak on May 15 at $680,000,000. Average
~~erve ~alances during the first half of May totaled $652,000,000, wluch Was $20,000,000 above the April average and $13 0,~,OOO above that in May last year. As is customary during
~eno~s between war loan drives, when reserve-exempt war loan
ep.oSltS of the Treasury are being converted into private depOSIt S h' l '
.
b k w IC ~ reqUire reserves, the reqUired
reserves of member
an shave II1creased sharply since the first of the year and excess teserves have shown a substantial decline. On May 15,
War oan deposits at banks in this district totaled $208,000,000,
as compared with $520,000,000 at the beginning of the year.
TI.le circulation of Federal Reserve notes of this bank has
ctntmued to expand during the current year but at a much
~~wer rate than in the preceding two years. Total circulation on
006 ~5 amounted to $565,000,000, which was about $7,000,gher than a month earlier and '$116,000,000 above that a
year ago.
d' Tl~e gross deposits at weekly reporting member banks in this
Is~nCt, after having declined sharply in January, have shown
~~ ~r{~gular upward trend since that time. Despite a net decline
It
d,20 0 ,000 between April 11 and May 9, the total on the
/ ter ate was still about $38,000,000 above the low point in
I anu~ry. ,During the past three months Government deposits
l~ve echned sharply, reflecting Treasury withdrawals from war
an accounts, but all other deposits have increased.
' .1l1g 0 f 1945, the loans of these banks h ave
fol!Since th e b.eg1l1n
oW d ?n Irregular downward trend representing in large
~It t seasonal liquidation of commercial, industrial, and agriu tura loans, and the repayment of 101ns secured hy Government sec '. D
.
unties. uring the four weeks ended May 9, there was
~~llchas,~ of $2,900,000 in loans to brokers and dealers and in
in ~t er loans, but this increase was largely offset by declines
amOtle~ types of loans. On May 15, total loans of these banks,
ountll?g to $407,000,000, were $76,000,000 greater than a
ye ar
ear ler.
hi
pr D~Jinf the past four weeks, the reporting banks, in order to
h
sel~vvi e . nds to meet deposit withdrawals, reduced their re-
Jnc cs ''':It the Federal Reserve Bank by $6,000,000, their bal~oc~s. ~lt\correspondents by $3,000,000, and their holdings of
the'1rn~leid' y $3,200,000. These banks continued to liquidate
secu .? lUgs of Treasury bills and to add to holdings of other
CIties.
8
INDUSTRY
The termination of the war in Europe is expected to bring
about substantial readjustments in the economy of the district,
as well as the nation, within a reasonable period. The volume of
production cutbacks is still uncertain, but they are expected to
be in large volume as soon as requirements can be more definitely estimated. The cutbacks will be of three kinds, all of
which will involve cancellation of advance orders for raw materials: (1) reduction or cancellation of contracts on which
production has not yet started, (2) runoff of contracts without
replacement orders, and (3) cancellation of work now in process. Substantial cutbacks, largely of the first and second kinds,
have already been made in aircraft, combat and cargo ships,
heavy artillery, and certain types of ammunition; and it is probable that many other products will be affected in the near future. In this district, reports have indicated that in recent
months some prime contractors, chiefly in aircraft and shipbuilding, have not been renewing contracts with subcontractors
as existing contracts were completed. Although some of the
aircraft companies have already shifted to products that will be
used in the Pacific war, some reductions in personnel are being
made. Early in May, some cutbacks in ordnance were announced.
It is possible, however, that the southwest may not experience as
drastic cutbacks in the immediate future as some other sections
of the country, in view of the fact that the products of some
industries, such as petroleum, rubber, carbon black, textiles,
chemicals and lumber, are likely to be in heavy demand throughout the Pacific phase of the war.
Reconversion preparations are proceeding rapidly, and the
policies covering the period between V -E Day and V -J Day
have been set in motion by the War Production Board, suggesting a transition period extending progressively through the remainder of 1945 .
Effective July 1, 1945, manufacturers of civilian durable
goods will be permitted to enter orders for steel, copper and
aluminum without Controlled Materials Plan allotments where
delivery can be made without interference with previously authorized C.M.P. orders. The War Production Board warns, however, that permission to place unrated orders does not guarantee
delivery of the material, and even though manufacturing controls have been lifted to permit manufacture of substantial
quantities of household appliances such as vacuum cleaners,
washing machines, sewing machines and electric toasters, it may
be some months before such items appear on the market in appreciable quantities. Moreover, due to continued shortages of
such important items as textiles, rubber, lumber, tin and many
others, manufacturing controls will be continued, at least for
the present, on such items as trucks, passenger automobiles,
domestic mechanical refrigerators, electric ranges and cooking
appliances, farm machinery, wood and steel furniture, and
radios.
The general over-all plan of the War Production Board is
either to relax or to revoke completely controls covering output
of civilian goods as rapidly as war production cutbacks release
resources of materials, manpower and facilities. It is emphasized,
however, that the removal of W.P.B. controls in no way affects
the validity of the continuing controls of other war agencies.
W.P.B. officials further point out that in resuming or expanding
civilian production, manufacturers remain subject to all applicable regulations of the Office of Price Administration, the
War Manpower Commission, and other Federal agencies.
The value of construction contracts awarded in this district
during April, amounting to $31,402,000, declined 17 per cent
from the relatively high awards of $38,000,000 in March, but
was more than double that for April, 1944. Although nonresidential construction in April showed a decline of 37 per cent
from t he preceding month, this decrease was partially offset by
4.
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
marked increases in awards for residential, public works and
utility construction. Moreover, total construction awards in this
district for the first four months of the year, amounting to
$102,476,000, were 69 per cent above the total of $60,684,000
in the same period a year earlier. Lumber continues in tight supply; and as direct military demands for crating and shipping
purposes will increase greatly during the period of redeployment
of men and materials from the European theatre to the Pacific,
the War Production Board will continue to exercise rigid controls until lumber production is materially increased. On the
other hand, the supply of steel, copper, aluminum and other
construction materials should become more plentiful before the
end of the year. Production of 576,000 barrels of Portland cement at Texas mills during March exceeded that in February by
100,000 barrels and was the largest output since September,
1944. Shipments of 600,000 barrels of cement during March
exceeded production and caused stocks to decline at the end of
the month to about 1,000,000 barrels, or less than two months'
supply at the current rate of shipments.
Production of crude petroleum in the Eleventh District during April reached an all-time high with a daily average rate of
2,346,000 barrels, representing an increase of 12 per cent over
that in April a year earlier. Production outside this district remained at about the previous month's level, although operators
on the West Coast had been requested to materially increase output to partially relieve the transportation bottleneck to that
area. During the period of shifting military forces to the Pacific
the over-all military demand for petroleum products will decline, but the current high production rates are to be maintained
to accumulate supplies needed for intensified activity in the
Pacific at a later period and to increase allotments for civilian
use as soon as circumstances will permit. The Petroleum Administrator's May certification for Texas calls for the continued
high production rate of 2,170,000 barrels of crude oil daily,
with a production of 483,000 barrels per day of sour crude requested from west Texas fields.
Reflecting the seasonal trend, drilling activity in the United
States and in the Eleventh District increased further in April,
with daily completions representing approximately the rate necessary to reach the 1945 goal of 27,000 wells requested by the
Petroleum Administrator for War. Daily well completions during April for the district as a whole averaged 24 wells, as compared with a daily average of 20 wells during the first quarter
of 1945. Although Texas showed the greatest gain in the number of completions throughout the United States, with the
greatest activity being concentrated in west, north and south
Texas fields, most of the other oil producing areas of the Eleventh District also showed gains. As the necessary steel has been
set aside to provide drilling equipment and as the most favorable
months for drilling are ahead, it is expected that drilling activity
will materially increase during the summer months.
Military and civilian requirements for cotton textiles are
larger than at any time during the war and will greatly increase
with the transfer of troops to the Pacific theatre, where lightweight cotton uniforms are used. Despite continued efforts of
the War Production Board and other Government agencies to
increase mill output, the general production trend since April,
1942 has been downward. Mill consumption of cotton at United
States textile mills during April totaled 770,000 bales, a decline
of 10 per cent from the 858,000 bales consumed in March and
fractionally less than the consumption in April a year earlier.
Cotton consumption for the first nine months of the 1944-1945
season totaled 7,286,000 bales, as compared with 7,581,000
bales for the same period last season, indicating a decline of 4
per cent. Manpower shortages due to the relatively low wage
scales prevailing in the textile industry are given as the chief
cause for declining production rates. As textiles have been declared one of the most pressing war needs, the War Production
Board announced on May 8 that, in an effort to increase textile
production sufficiently to meet the acute shortages, large segments of the textile industry had been given productionurgency rating as munitions producers. The present goal is to
increase output by at least 18 per cent, which would bring production back to 1942 and 1943 levels.
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
JUNE I,
1945
NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
(Complied by tho Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
I.I.VOlUMI'UIOt~,:!:!~D,ln)'3g.IOO'OfIITOT4L
'<'260 r240
c--Rd,:ff:
r\·rI _ I'-JOTAL
200
-
20
nlA=~m~N
V 1'' +1
''''',...."" .~I
-I--
~AHUf"AC'_i,;
180
I
160
100
J
rL
/
'--
~
140
120
I'OlNlt lNT OTAL
40
f-
.1..
1940
1942
r
I I
40
~OTl1l"
RAOLE
20
FffHftj
80
1944
1940
19U
80
60
t---'l eJ 11
.
I00
20
o
19 44
Federal Rese
. d
exes. ~roups are expressed in
terms of poinc: v.e
latest shown a Ifn (A,e ~otal lOde)(. Montbly figures,
re or prll, 1945.
"I
_
B
a
~
42
1944
1940
1942
1944
ased on De
Wages and salarfar~menr of.<;:ommerce est im ates.
ures raised to es lOclude milItary pay. Montbly figMarcil, 1945.
annual rates, latest shown are for
OOST OF LIVING
Output ~nd employment at factories decliped somewhat in April. Dep~rtmellt store sales showed
decline and wholesale commodity prices continued to advance sligh tl y.
~ m~rked
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production, which had advanced earlier this year, declined in April to the same general
level that prevailed during the last half of 1944. The Board's seasonally adjusted index was 231 per cent
of the 19 35-39 average as compared with 2H in the first quarter.
Activity in the machinery ~nd transportation equipment industries declined about 3 per cent in
April, reflecting curtailed munitions production; the largest p~rt of the dtcrease w~s accounted for by
a further reduction in operations at shipyards. As a result of the decline in shipbuilding during the last
12 months, activity in the transportation equipment industries in April was 10 per cent below a year ago.
Steel production was maint~ined at the March level as a declin e in output at open hearth furnaces
was offset by a further rise in steel produced in electric furnaces. Production of nonferrous metals,
which had increased somew hat during the first quarter of this year, showed little change ill April. Output of stone, clay, ~nd glass products w~s maintained at the first quarter level, while lumber production
continued to decline.
Production of textiles and manufactured food products declined slightly in April and was at the
level of a year ago. COtton consumption showed a decrease of 5 per cent from March but rayon shipments
rose further to a record level. Activity at meatp~cking establishments, which had shown little change
during the first quarter after allowing for seasonal fluctuations, declined 10 per cent in April. Output of
rubber products decrt":lsed as the shortage of c~rbon black continued to limit prod uction despite measures to stretch available supplies. Production of most other nondurable goods showed little change.
Bituminous coal production recovered in the latter part of April from a substantial decline e~r1ier
in the month due to work interruptions accompanying contract negotiations. Output for the month was
S per cent below that of March and in the first two weeks of May continued at this lower r~te. Anthracite production in April waS 14 per cent higher than in the preceding month hut declined sharply in May
prior to agreement on a new wage contract on May 19. Output of crud~ petroleum has been maintained
at record levels and iron are production has shown an exceptionally large increase this spring due to
early opening of the navigation season on the Great Lakes.
DISTRIBUTION
Department store sales declined sharply in April and the Board's se",onally adjusted index w~s 181
pel' cent of the 193 S-39 average as compared with an average of 211 in the first quarter and with 172 in
April, 1944. Sales in the first half of May were only slightly larger than in the corresponding period a
year ago. Owing to unseasonably warm we~ther and expectations of shortages, much spring shopping,
which would usua lly be done in April and May, occurred this year in February and March. In mid-April
many stores were closed immediately following the death of President Roosevelt. Also, in particular
cities part of the recent decrease in sales ~ppears to have been associated with actual or anticipated income
declines resulting from cutbacks in war production.
Freight carloadings of most manufactured products were maintained ~t a high level in April and
the early part of May and were above the same period a year ago. Shipments of coal ~nd lumber, however, were in sma ller volume, reflecting reductions in output of these commodities.
COMMODITY PRICES
90
80,--
1';'3~7~1~.~38~~'.~3;.~::~~~---l--__~__1-__J80
B
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
ureau of Lab S "
,.
each calendar Or tatlStlcs Indexes. Last month in
monthly thereaft~uart~r through September, 1940,
ate for April, 194;: MId-month figures, latest shown
MEMBER BANK
;~'"'''LL'''
RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS
--r---t---+---+---~~~--~
..
20
1944
194 5
figures, latest sbown arc for May 23,
\Vho!esale prices of farm products advanced in April and then showed little change in the first
three weeks of May. Maximum prices for coal, steel products, and various other industrial commodities
have been raised somewhat in recent weeks.
Retail price changes for foods and other commodities apparently have continued to be small 111
April and the early part of May.
BANK CREDIT
During the four wecks ended May 16 total deposit and currency holdings of businesses and individuals increased by nearly 3 billion dollars. Increases of about 300 million in currency and of over 400
million in reserves required to be held against expanding deposits at member banks resulted in an increased demand for reserve funds by member b~nk s . This demand was supplied largely by an increase of
about S00 millions of dollars in Reserve Bank holdings of Government securities, mostly bills and certificates, and in part by a temporary decline in Treasury deposits at the Reserve Banks. Excess reserves
rose slightly to around a billion dollars.
In the five months between war loan drives, December 20 to May 16, reporting banks in 101 cities
reduced their holdings of short-term Government sec urities by around 2.3 billion dollars in order to
maintain adequate reserve balances. But during the same period bond holdings of these banks were
increased by 1.6 billion dollars.
Loans to brokers and dealers for purchasing or carryillg Government secu rities, which had declined
in early April to a level comparable with that rcached before the Sixth War Loan Drive, rose substantially during the three weeks immediately preceding the Seventh \Var Loan Drive. Commercial loans
declined during the interdrive period, reaching a level about SOO million dollars lower than that prevailing just before the Sixth War Loan Drive.
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
(Thousands of doll.rs)
May 15,
May 15,
1045
1044
Tot.1 cash rcscrvos ........ ......... .. . .......... . $554,513
S572,040
Discounts for member b.nks ........•......... . .•..
200
250
Industrial advances .................... ... ....... .
Nono
2
U. S. Govcrnmont scouritios ...................... .
725,6R5
483,645
Total onrning IlSS<lts . .. ....... .... ....... .... .... .
725,805
483,807
Member blinks reserve deposits ........ ... .. . ..... .
680,235
535,101
Federal Resorvo Notos in actual oiroulation ......... .
565,363
447,485
April 15,
1045
$55~~~~
Nono
609,005
600,005
644,547
556,066
CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING ME~mER BANKS
IN LEADING CITIES
(Thousands of dollars)
May 0,
May 10,
Aprilll,
1045
1944
1045
Total loans .nd investmonts . .... .... ..... ......... SI,673,I86 $1,368,206 $1,676.312
Totalloans. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .
400,071
331.244
400,407
Commorei.I, industrial, ond oJ!rieulturnllonns... .
267,427
260,225
236.100
5,057
Loons to brokers and dealers In securities.... . .. .
2.052
4.702
Other lonns for purchnsillg or carrying soeuritios. .
40,866
27,324
50.527
Re.1 estoto lo.ns. . . . .. .. . . . . .. .. . . . . . . .. . . . ..
22,440
10,713
22,366
Lonns to banks...... .. . . . . .. .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .
154
02
154
All oth~r lo.ns................. ..............
61,118
45.057
50.433
Total investments.............................. 1,200,165
1,037,052
1,260,005
U. S. Trensury bills...................... .....
58,030
88.330
71.892
U. S. Treasury certifiontos of indobtedness.......
300,176
254.213
388.445
U. S. Trcnsury notos..........................
220,732
219,816
100,163
U. S. Govcrnmont bonde......................
530,341
410.064
533,231
Obligations gunronteed by United States Gov't..
0,740
30.031
0,081
Other securities.......... .. . .... ....... . .....
48,137
45,342
40,540
Reserves with Federnl Rcscrvo Bank. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
340,840
201,300
355,825
Balances with domestic b.nks....... .. . . . . . •.. .. . . .
222,527
100.693
225,485
Dem3nd dejlOSits-ndjusted°. . . . . .. . .. . .. ..• . . . . .. 1,274,630
1.073,578
1,252,069
Time deposIts... . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . .. . .. . . .... .. .. .
243,401
178,747
238,744
Unitod Statos Government doposits.... .. . . .. . . . . . . .
135.120
136,256
177,873
Intorba!,k deposits..... . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51~1255
41~~~!
51~~~~
BorrOWings from Federal Reservo B.nk. ........... .
Nono
'Includos all demnnd deposits other thnn interbank and United Statos Governmont, less
ensh itoms reportod lIS on hand or in process of collection.
DEBITS TO INDMDUAL ACCOUNTS
(Thousonds of doll.rs)
April
April
Pctg.eh.ngo
1045
1944
over year
Abilene. . . .. .. .. .. • .. ... S 15.724 $ 16.738
-6
Am.rillo ................
45,481
39.023
+15
Austin ..................
66,252
-24
86.977
Bonumollt .. . ............
52,777
54,501
-3
Corpus Christi. ..........
46,961
51.984
+11
Corsionnll ...............
5,840
5.830
+ t
D.llas ..................
645,684
500,363
+7
EIPaso .................
56.351
' 61.220
-8
102,011
Fort Worth ....... .......
185,423
+4
G.lveston ...............
40.865
41.432
- I
Houston ............ .....
664,337
500.232
+13
Laredo ..................
12.223
11.458
+7
25,874
Lubbock ................
28.667
+11
Monroe, La..............
16,322
-2
15.060
Port Arthur .............
22,237
23.058
+4
Roswell, N. M............
8.060
7,685
+13
S.n AnRelo ............ ..
15.374
12,709
+21
San Antonio ......... . ...
147.452
142,357
+4
Shreveport, La ... , .......
73,200
84.792
+16
20,301
17,457
Texnrknnu' .... .... . . ... .
+17
Tucson, Anz .. ...........
82,760
27.735
+18
20,241
23.627
+17
..
26,003
24.844
Wicbita Falls ....... . :
23,885
20.120
r,,~~~::::::::::::: :
..
:j:2~
..
March
1945
19.740
51.084
07.966
61,808
57.713
6,746
588.680
06.170
224.125
50,266
634,303
12,604
33,3~9
18,073
26.410
0,444
16.008
104. 177
84,828
23,260
85,205
24,207
20,410
30,262
Petg.ohant!:'
over mont
-20
-11
-32
-15
-10
- 13
-7
-15
-14
-10
- 11
-3
-14
-16
-13
-8
-4
-10
-t
-12
-7
-2
-11
-4
Total-24 cities .. ........ $2,105,458 $1,074,304
+ 7
$2.362,002
-11
°Includos the figures of two banks in Texarknnn. Arkansntl, 10ont<Jd in tho Eighth District.
tChange less th.n one·half of one pcr cent.
GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF ME~ER BANKS
(Avernge daily figures-Thousands of dollars)
Reserve city b.nks
Country b.nks
Combined total
Gross
dem.nd
April
1943 ....... . . . $2,718.087
April
1044 .......... 3,202.252
December 1044 .....• . ... 4,024.828
J.nu.ry 1045 .......... 4.104,746
Febru.ry 1045 .......... 4,016.752
1045 .......... 4,050,000
M.rch
April
1045 .......... 4.030,267
Gross
Gross
Time
demalld
Time
dcmand
Timo
$234,701 $1,182,055 $188,031 $1,235,132 S 00.760
284.539 1,700.275 175.621 1.582,977 108,018
338.089 2,066,046 213,060 1,057,882 125,620
345,591 2,000,671 218.338 2.014,075 127.253
354,580 2,020.060 224.548 1,000.002 130.038
307,380 2.045,585 232,600 2.004,415 134,780
380,585 2,030,420 242.778 2,008,838 137.807
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL 'rRADE STATISTICS
, - - - - - - -'Porcent.ge changp in:
•
,------Net snlos-----v---Stoeks f---.
Number
April 1045 from
J.n. 1 to
April 1045 from
of
April
March
Apr. 30, 1045
April
M.rch
Retail tr.de:
firms
1044
1045
from 1044
1044
1045
Department storos:
Tot.1 11th Dist .... .
48
+ 2
-21
+15
+ 6
+ q
Dallas .......... ..
7
+ 0
-22
+10
+11
+ 7
Fort Worth ... ... ..
4
+ 5
-24
+17
-15
- 1
Houston ..... ... .. .
7
- 7
-24
+ 8
+ 3
+14
San Antonio ... ... .
5
+11
-18
+23
Shrevcpnrt, J..... . . .
a
- R
-25
+11
Other cities ....... .
22
+ 2
-18
+13
- 3
Retail furniture:
Total 11th Dist.. .. .
68
-11
+3
-1
+5
DallllS ........... .
-1
o
-6
-2
+31
Houston .......... .
7
-0
+9
Port Arthur ..... . .
4
-8
-5
+'7
S.n Antoaio .. .... .
3
-10
+15
Wichita Falls ..... .
3
-20
+14
Independo ,t storos:·
Arizona .......... . 142
-2
+ .8
Now Moxieo .... .. .
115
-4
+11
Oklahoma ........ . 350
-16
+15
Texas ..........• . .
044
-18
+12
Wholesale trode:o
Automotive supplios
1
+30
-15
Drugs.. .. .. .. .. .. .
4
+ 3
- 0
Groceries..........
20
- 7
- 7
-18
':':'2
H.rdware. . .......
14
+13
- 4
+12
+ 5
+ 6
°Compiled by United States Bureau of Consus (wholosn1e trode figure., prelimin.ry) .
fStocks .t end of month.
tCh.nge less th.n one-h3lf of one per cent.
+'"
':':' f
':':'f
INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS
D.ily .veroge snIcs -(1035·1030-100)
Un.djust<Jdtt
Adjusted
April
March Fcbru.ry April
M.roh February
1045
1945
1045
1044
1045
1945
District ... ..
228
269
230
228
240
283
284
D.llas ......
225
267
248
214
250
276
260
Houston .....
210
255
231
226
23a
274
206
184~
Stocks-(1023-1925 ~ 100)
~---Unndjustodtt'---------Adiustodl-----
April
M.rch Fcburnry
1945
1045
1D45
District . . . . . 111
106
07
ttUn.djusted for scasoll.1 variotion.
rer.~~g
Bonumont ...............
D.Uas ..................
EI Paso .................
Fort 1V0rth ..............
Galvoslon ...............
Houston .................
Lubbock ................
Port Arthur .............
San Antonio .............
Shreveport, La .. ...•. . ...
lV.eo ...................
Wichita F.IIs ............
All other ................
3
8
2
3
4
0
2
2
5
3
3
3
58
Total. .........
105
Percen ta~e change in
savings eposits from
Number of Amount of
savings
April 30,
March 31.
snvinf!S
deposIts
depositors
1044
1945
12,029 $ 6,004,105 +27.1
+ 1.0
105,051
55,820.072 +42.4
+ 2.7
25.356
17.138.358 +42.0
+ 2.0
37.506
25.832,288 :j:a9.8
+ 2.2
21,246
10,800,800
20.0
+ 1.6
88,080
55.075,031 +20.0
+ 2.4
801
509.842
oo
+ 4.8
5.622
4,500,415
25.4
+ 2.0
,
32,444
34,272.700
36.4
+ 3 .0
31.014
21.040,203
37.2
+ 3.7
8,712
7,040.035 +33.0
+ 3.8
6,705
4,172,471 +15.2
+ .6
56.403
41,810.508 +31.7
+ 2 .8
r
432,559
$200,078,833
+34 .8
+ 2.7
April
1044
99
April
1045
107
March Fcbruary
1045
1945
103
101
April
1944
06
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION-(Bnrrcls)
April 1045
Incronee or dccranse in d.ily
avernge production from
Tot:ll
Dnily nVR.
production
production
April 1044
M.rch 1045
North Tcxas.................
7,207.800
240,200
+ 5,185
+ 3,008
West Texas..................
14,696,600
489.887
+115,152
+13,755
Enst Texas. .... .......•..... 15.649,200
521.040
+ 31.908
- 7.473
SOllth Tcxas. .. ...... . . .. .. . . 10.591.500
353.050
+ 50,585
+ 1.308
Texns CalISta!..... .. .. . . . .. .. 16,053.600
505.120
+ 46.452
+ 808
Total Toxas.. ....
New Mcxieo ... ...... ,.. .....
North Louisiana..............
05.008.700
3,141,500
2,133,050
2,160,057
104.716
71.102
+258,342
7,772
4,708
+11,586
+
834
+
805
Tot. 1 District. .... 70,373.250
2.345.775
+245,777
SOURCE: Estim.tod from Amerionn Pctroleum Institute weekly rcports.
+13.225
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED
(Thousands of dollors)
March
April
April
Janu.ry 1 to
1045
1044
1945
1045
Elcventh District-total. . $ 31.402
$ 12,865
$ 38.058 S lO2.476
Residential. . . . . . . . . . . .
3,283
2,815
2,482
7,848
All othcr" ............
28,110
lO,050
85,570
04.614
United Statos°-tota!.... .
305.708
170,286
828,874
1.012,578
IWidenti.l. . . .. .. .. . .
42,745
37,772
20.043
108,524
All other. . . . . .. . .. ....
353,053
141.514
301,031
904,054
°37 statos cast 01 tho Rocky Mountains.
SOURCE: F. IV. Dodge Corporation.
SAVINGS DEPOSITS
April 30, 1045
Number of
April
1044
232
225
233
April 30
1944
$ 00.084
14,371
40.301
652,168
13R.704
518,359
BUILDING PERMITS
Pereentagc ehaugo
Percentagt
valu.tion from
J.n.l to Apr. 30.1045 ch.a~e
valu.tloD
Valuation Apr.1944 Mar.l04S No.
V.luation from 1944
$ 19,650
+ 50
46 $
+383
51.870 -63
104.187
+ 10
322
- 53
580.003 + 02
135.773
+213
- 28
502
+352
070.501
85,027
-16
- 45
630
400.660 + 19
205,340
+ 47
- 24
666
704,541
644.012
0
2,520
2.060,080
+ 3
40.388
- 75
212
+ 85
196,053 - 34
543,000
+ 19
4
1.210
1,860,674 + 46
53.652
+ 17
249
218.810 -25
:j:135
1.177.776
210
- 77
1,206
7,000.726 +882
133,387
+105
+ 18
513
570,481 +263
66,607
+ 82
+lO2
203
143,764 +~
433.30 1
8
3.546
1.742,431
+23
:j: 12
1
150,041
180
826
+ 20
717.227 _+ 17
48
57,840
-15
- 76
242
272,705
23,403
3
152
+
16
52
107,530
+
April 1045
No.
Abilcne ..........
Am.rillo .........
Austill. ..........
Bonumont ..... . ..
Coreus Christi ....
D.IIIS ...........
ElPaso ......... .
Fort Worth .. . ....
Galveston ........
Houston ..........
Lub~ock .........
Port Arthur ......
San Antonio .. . " .
Shreveport. La ....
W.eo ............
Wichita Falls .....
8
78
IS8
154
163
602
58
801
63
388
134
71
S90
215
68
45
------
Total" ...... 3,527 $3,885.143
:!:~
-
-
+ 32
-
52
13,147 $18.408.205
-+ 13
@FedFRASER