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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW o f the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of Dallas ================r===================================== Volume 29, No.5 Dallas, Texas, July 1, 1944 '.rhis COpy is r eleased for pubJuly 2 licntion in morning papers - ~ =================================~~~~~~~= DISTRICT SUMMARY The ratio of collections during May to receivables outstandDepartment store sales in this district, which had declined in ing at the first of the month was 66 per cent as compared with A.pril, increased by a smaller amount than is usual in May, but 64 per cent in April and 63 per cent in May last year. The avertOtal sales for the month were 23 per cent larger than in the age ratio during the first five months of 1944 was 65 per cent sal11e month of 1943. The daily average production of crude as compared with 62 per cent in the corresponding period of petroleum in this district reached a new peak in May at a level 1943. about 30 per cent higher than a year ago, and on the basis of According to Standard and Poor's, furniture shipments allowables further increases in production are in prospect for June and July. Drilling activity showed a further increase d~r throughout the country for the first quarter of 1944 declined Ing May and was higher than a year ago. Cotton consumptlOn 5 per cent from those in the corresponding period of 1943, and at Texas mills increased substantially from April to May but new orders decreased by 13 per cent. In this district, the demand Was considerably smaller than in May last year. Construction for furniture is good while inventories remain comparatively actiVity decreased further during May. Field operations and low. Dollar sales at reporting furniture stores in May increased crop growth were retarded by excessive rains in the ea~tern half 7 per cent over the preceding month and were 3 per cent above of ~he district during May and early June but the unproved those for May, 1943. Most of this increase is probably attributed l110lsture conditions in most of the western half of Texas were to the purchase of higher priced items rather than to a greater ?eneficial to crops and ranges. Heavy yields of small gra.ins a~e volume. Stocks at the end of May l'emained at about the same I~ prospect. The deposits of weekly reporting banks 10 tlllS level maintained during the past three months but were 11 per district increased approximately $60,000,000 between May 10 cent lower than those of a year ago. and June 14. These banks utilized a portion of the funds to expand their investments but also added substantially to their According to the Departmen.t of Commerce, retail sales of balances with the Federal Reserve Bank and with correspondent independent stores in 34 states during the first four months of banks. 1944 were 6 per cent above those for the same period in 1943, while in Texas the increase for the same period amounted to 9 BUSINESS per cent. t .A heavy demand for department store merchandise was mainAGRICULTURE alUed during May when dollar volume sales were 23 per cent above those for the same month a year ago. This increase comWeather conditions continued to have varied effects upon pares with an average gain of 16 per cent during the first five i11.onths of the current year. The seasonally adjusted index crops during May and the first half of June. Frequent and heavy reached 228 per cent of the 1935-1939 average compared with rains in the eastern half of Texas and in north Louisiana, which 232 per cent for April and 191 per cent for May, 1943. Dollar flooded low lands, caused considerable damage to row crops, sales of weekly reporting firms during the first two weeks of retarded crop growth and cultivation, and necessitated extenJune Were 17 per cent above those for the same period last year, sive replanting of crops. In these areas most row crops are later reflecting a continuation of large scale buying of merchandise than usual and many fields are badly in need of cultivation. On e~e~ though an increased proportion of current income of in- the other. hand, the rains supplied much needed moisture in most d1V~d.uals is being diverted to the purchase of Government se- of the western half of Texas, greatly improving range and livestock conditions and insuring satisfactory conditions for curities during the Fifth War Loan Drive. planting operations and crop growth. In the Low Rolling Plains Cash sales at reporting firms accounted for 54 per cent of and Pecos-EI Paso areas of Texas and in southern New Mexico tOtal sales for the second consecutive month, and increased at and southern Arizona drought conditions still prevail and rain a faster rate over a year ago than did credit sal'es. Whereas cash is urgently needed. Small grains made excellent progress and sales represented approximately one-third of total sales during heavy yields are in prospect. 19 41, they accounted for slightly more than one-half of total The Department of Agriculture reported that unusually fa~ales since April, 1943. Inventories at the end of May averaged per cent above those on the corresponding date last year, but vorable May weather increased the indicated production of all wheat in the United States this year to a record total of 1,034,rei11.ained practically the same as those a month earlier. 785,000 bushels, which is slightly larger than the previous During May, sales of piece goods, women's apparel and record crop produced in 1915, and sharply higher than the 10accessories, men's and boys' wear and home furnishings reflected year average production of 760,199,000 bushels. In Texas the Substantial increases over those in both the preceding month and indicated wheat production of 61,095,000 bushels is only modthe Corresponding month last year. Sales of toilet articles and erately lower than the record crop of 67,983,000 bushels har?~ugs and silverware and jewelry, which had declined sharply vested in 1931 and compares with 36,366,000 bushels produced I~ April, increased during May and were well above those in last year and the 10-year average production of 28,195,000 t le Corresponding month last year. The May volume, however, bushels. The June 1 estimate indicates a per acre yield of 15.0 ~as considerably lower than that in March this year, when buy- bushels, as compared with 11.0 bushels in 1943, 16.5 bushels ~ng in these departments was exceptionally heavy pri~r to the in 1942 and the 1933-1942 average of 9.7 bushels. Timely rains itlauguration of the new and higher excise taxes apphcable to during May in most of the important wheat growing counties caused continued improvement in the crop and good yields are i11.any of these items. This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) 2 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW in prospect in all areas except parts of the Low Rolling Plains. Harvesting in north Texas is well advanced, despite some delays by rains and wet fields, and is expected to be well under way in northwest Texas by the latter part of June. Much better than average crops of oats and barley were in prospect in Texas on June 1. The forecast of 45,400,000 bushels of oats, although considerably below the record crop of 65,205,000 bushels in 1919, is considerably above the relatively small crops of recent years, which amounted to 21,780,000 bushels last year and 11,210,000 bushels in 1942. This year's barley production is indicated at 7,293,000 bushels as compared with 3,341,000 bushels in 1943, and the 1933-1942 average harvest of 3,131,000 bushels. Open weather is needed in many areas to avoid losses. Prospects for peanuts are good in south Texas following the recent beneficial rains, but planting in the important peanut producing counties in north Texas was delayed by wet fields. The condition of the corn crop varied extremely over the State. In a large part of north central, eastern and upper coastal areas of Texas and in north Louisiana excessive rains and flooding of bottom lands have severely damaged the corn. Crop growth has been retarded and many fields are badly in need of cultivation. In the sO\'lth central part of the State the corn crop made good progress. The crop was greatly improved by rains through the Low Rolling Plains, and in many central, western and plateau counties growth has been very satisfactory. Grain sorghum crops in the principal producing areas made good progress. Conditions in early June were still unfavorable for cotton in much of central, eastern and southeastern Texas and in north Louisiana. In these areas excessive rains which flooded low lands retarded planting and replanting operations and crop cultivation. Many fields are grassy and will be difficult to work out. Prospects were more favorable in northwestern areas because of timely rains and planting and cultivation progressed at a rapid rate. In south Texas cotton is making good growth and was fruiting well. Insect infestation has developed, however, in extreme southern counties. A production of 1,554,000 bushels of peaches was forecast as compared with 900,000 bushels produced last year and a 10year average production of 1,543,000 bushels. Production of peaches this year is confined largely to eastern and north central counties as late freezes severely damaged the crop in other areas. The pear crop forecast at 469,000 bushels is well above the 1943 production of 211,000 bushels. Harvesting of the commercial vegetable crops in all areas was delayed because of rains and wet fields which caused some damage to matured stock. East Texas tomatoes are of good quality but prospective yields are below earlier estimates. In some south Texas areas onions were abandoned in the fields because of lowered quality and poor market demand. North Texas onions were subjected to damage in quality because of adverse weather conditions which delayed the harvest. The potato harvest was practically state-wide except in some areas where summer crops are produced. Many fields were harvested in advance of maturity to avoid loss by rotting with the attendant lowering of quality and yield. Cantaloupe harvest was extended from the Laredo area to the Coastal Bend non-irrigated district with the quality reported as generally good. Following the deterioration during April, range feed and pasturage showed a marked improvement during May throughout most of the district, the principal exceptions being portions of west Texas, southern New Mexico and southern Arizona, where moisture conditions continue unsatisfactory. Livestock made satisfactory gains during May except in the dry areas and are CASH FARM INCOME (Thousands of dollars) ~ March 1044 r~----'Total receipts ~ ~Recoipts from~ March March January 1 to March 31 Crops Livestock" 1044 1943 1944 1943 11,053 4,000 10,043 16,3S9 37,223 37,309 : 6,214 4,647 10,861 8,884 40,059 32,48 2 New Mexioo ........ .... . 032 3,248 4,180 5,000 13,411 17,IP 0 Oklahoma ............. .. 4,023 23,487 27,510 27,123 76,049 72,109 Texas ................. . . 20,248 41,861 68,109 80,331 227,271 223,409 ti~i~f:n·o·.·.::::::::::::: Total.. . .......... 48,470 78,233 126,703 138,067 394,013 ·Includes receipts from the sale of livestock and livestock produets. SOURCE: United Stotcs Deportment of Agriculture. 'ii82,505 LIVESTOCK RECEIPT8-(Number) ~--Fort Worth---~-- May 1044 Cottle ................ . .. 102,098 Calves ................. . 25,400 117,041 605,432 §10:'Ji:.'. ::::::::: :: :::: : May 1943 56,402 18,971 88,255 198,344 April 1944 86,813 16,187 11 2,505 108,332 May 1944 31,OS9 25,342 16,468 52,343 Ban Antonio----:-May Apr!l 1043 1044 10,432 24,056 19,041 21,354 11,539 13,07 1 27,710 19,073 COMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICEB (DoUars per hundred weight) ~Fort Worth---~--S.n Beefsteers ............... Stocker steers ............ Heifers and yearlings..... Buteher cows............ Calves ........ .. .. ..... . Hogs.................... Lambs.................. May 1944 S16.25 - 13.00 16 .00 12.50 14 .50 13 .65 14.50 May 1043 $16.60 16.00 16.50 13.25 15 .00 14 .50 15.00 April 1944 $15 .50 14 .00 15.50 12.50 14.50 13.65 15.00 May 1044 S13.50 Antonio--:-May Apr! l 1043 1044 $13.60 $14.50 14.00 11 .40 14.00 13 .55 13 .25 .i,i>75 12 .50 15 .00 14 .50 .ida 12.00 13.50 13.55 13.05 COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTB ~-- Texas--v---United Cottonseed received at mills (tons) ... . .. ............. .. Cottonseed crushed (tona) .... . Cottonseed on hand May 31 August 1 to May 31 This aeason Last seasoa 900,880 1,011,476 927,410 1,010,016 27,145 (toilS) .......... . ........ .. Produetion of products: Crude oil (thousand lbs.) ... . 270,642 Cake and meal (tons) .. . ... . 440,741 210,190 Hulls (tons) ............. .. Linters (running bales) ..... . 277,256 Stooks on hand May 31: Crude oil (thousand lbs.). . . . 7,200 Cake and meal (tons).. ... .. 13,010 Hulls (tons). . . .. .. .. .. . .. . 3,093 Linters (running bales). . . . . . 51,425 SOURCE: United States Bureau of Ceasus. States----August 1 to May 31 This season Last sensen 3,015,188 4,448,464 3,825,215 4,344,561 27,815 178,749 175,024 202,854 455,074 252,855 300,677 1,195,426 1,774,064 804,077 1,142,381 1,350,380 1,024,476 1,048,266 1,305,8 13 2,167 5,015 3,876 69,058 16,212 40,345 26,343 170,623 16,762 36,321 22,134 252,260 DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON-(Bales) May August 1 to May 31 May April 1044 1943 This senson Last senson 1044 Consumption at: 210,820 Texas mills . ........ . .... 17,270 23,515 15,533 172,189 0,341,781 831,880 United States mills ....... 002,301 776,007 8,412,168 U. S. stocks-cnd of month : , , In consumiog estab'ments. 2,110,581 2,320,197 Public stg. & compresses . . 9,582,675 9,666,082 .. .... now in generally good condition. Shipments of cattle from the Southwest increased during May but for the spring season wete considerably below those in the same period of 1943. 1'eJ(as moved a record number of sheep during May, consisting largelY of yearlings, with some aged sheep and wethers and early lambs, Prices received by Texas farmers for most of their prod uc.tS during April and May continued near the high levels attaine~ ~ 1943. The average farm prices for wheat, corn and oats W~l1Cd reached a peak during March and April, 1944, were maintall1e during May. FINANCE The reserve balances of member banks in this district, after having remained relatively steady during the first four monthS of the current year, increased moderately in May and ros~ sharply during the first half of June, reaching an all-time pea of $561,000,000 toward the middle of the month. The average during the first half of June amounted to $544,000,000 as colli' pared with $523,000,000 in May and $473,000,000 in June last year. The excess reserves of member banks during Maya" et'I aged approximately $ 89,000,000, which is the lowest le"e reached in about two years. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW . Federal Reserve notes of this bank in actual circulation contlUued to expand at a substantial rate during the past month. Th~ total circulation on June 15 amounted to $46 1,644,000 '''hlch was $14,200,000 higher than a month earlier, and $151,600,000 above the total on the corresponding date last year. ~es?ite the rapid increase in Federal Reserve note circulation ur~ng the past sixty days, the net expansion of $45,3 00,000 dUrmg the first five and one-half months of the current year Was substantially smaller than the $58,200,000 increase that OCcl1~red during the corresponding period of 1943. Total circhiatlOn is now nearly six times that in June, 1940, at the time t e national defense program was inaugurated. f Th.e gross deposits of weekly reporting banks in leading cities F this district, which had declined about $69, 000,000 between ebruary 16 and May 10, rose by nearly $6 0,000,000 during the five weeks ended June 14. This increase reflected a further el(pansion of $51,100,000 in adjusted demand deposits and $5,~OO,OOO in time deposits, and an increase of $4 1,300,000 in I~terbank deposits which more than offset the net withdrawal b $38,500,000 from Government deposit accounts at these a~ks. Government deposits, consisting chiefly of war loan dePOSltS, are at the lowest level since last September, but are ex~~ted to rise sharply during the course of the Fifth War Loan b rlV'e as investors make payments for security purchases. Interdan~ deposits, which had shown an irregular downward trend Unng the preceding six months, have increased sharply in recent weeks and on June 14 were only slightly under the peak reached last November. The reporting banks utilized the funds :cqu~red through the increase in deposits to expand their loans 'n~ mVestments by $13,9 00,000 and to add $29,700,000 to ~helr reserve balances with the Federal Reserve Bank and $15,00,000 to their balances with correspondents. b The commercial, industrial and agricultural loans of these fianks, which had shown a contra-seasonal increase during the brst fOtlr and one-half months of 1944, decreased $3,500,000 etWeen May 10 and June 14, but on the latter date the total ~as about $9,000,000 higher than at the end of 1943. The Investments of reporting banks, which had been reduced apprOximately $28,0 00,000 between March 15 and May 10 were ~creased $17,200,000 during the five weeks ended June 14. though these banks decreased their holdings of Government ~uaranteed obligations and non-Government securities by $11,00,000, they added $28,900,000 to their holdings of Governhen~ direct obligations, with the principal increase being in oldmgs of certifiGates of indebtedness. INDUSTRY F The value of construction contracts awarded in the Eleventh ederal Reserve District aggregated $11,366,000 in May this Ye.ar as compared with $12,865,000 in the preceding month, and With $25,548,000 in May, 1943. The continued decline in the '1aiue of awards covered all types of construction. The total '1alue of construction awards in May this year was 56 per cent: sInaHer than in the same month last year. The completion of Inajor projects in this district during recent months has been reflected by a pronounced decline in awards for all types of c~nstruction. This slackening of activ~ty has brought a~o~t surP Uses of skilled building craftsmen 111 some communities but as shortages of lumber and some other critical building supplies COntinue to exist, the restrictions on all types of non-essential new construction have remained in force. l:: In May, the daily average production of crude oil in the bieventh District reached a newall-time high of 2,181,710 arrels, surpassing by about 3 per cent the previous peak. of 2,115,000 barrels attained in November, 1943. The productIOn rate during May was about 4 per cent higher than in April and Was approximately 30 per cent above that in May, 1943. All 8 CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK (Thouaanda or dollars) June 15, June 15, 1944 1943 Total cash reserves ..... • •...•................•... S512,387 $606,732 Discounts ror member banks ...................... . None 1,450 Industrial advances ...................... .. ...... . None 18 542,922 United States Government securities ..... . ......... . 227,062 Total earning ll88ets ............................ .. 542,922 228,530 555,779 Member bank reservo deposits . ............ ... . ... . 488,524 461,644 310,007 Federal Roecrvo Notoe in actual circulation ......•... May 15, 1944 $572,949 250 2 483,645 483,897 535,101 447,485 CONDITION STATISTICS OF 3a MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES (Thouaands of dollars) June 14, June 16, May 10, 1044 1043 1044 Total loans and investmcnts .....••.. .. ..... ..... .. $1,382,170 $1,102,808 Sl,368,206 327,938 278,810 331,244 Total loans. ................... .. ............. .. Commercial, industrial, and aj!rlculturalloans..... . 232,650 202,071 236,106 Loaas to brokers and dealcrs In securities .. '........ 2,387 1,507 2,952 Other loans for purchosing or carrying seourities.... 28,191 14,503 27,324 Real estatc loans...... ....... ....... . . .... ..... 10,633 18,002 10,713 Loons to bankn.. .. • .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 177 126 92 All othcr loons. ..... .. ....... .. ... ..... . .. ... .. 44,001 41,611 46.057 Total invcstments................... . ... .. ...... 1,054,232 013,908 1,037,052 U. S. Tronsury bills.... .... .. .. ... .. ... .. .... ... 80,035 124,066 88,330 U. S. Treasury corti6oateB of indebtedness.. ....... 276,022 200,257 264,213 U. S. Trcosury notcs... .. ....................... 203,371 105,904 100,163 U. S. Government bonds.. ................ . .. ... 412,361 360,266 410,064 Obligations guarantecd by United States Gov't..... 20,719 58,574 80,031 Othcr securities. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. . 43,824 55,032 45,342 Roeervcs with Federal Roeerve Bonk........... .. .. . 320,054 202,083 201,300 Balane.. with domestic banks............... ..... .. 216,445 263,164 100,693 Dcmand deposits-ndjustedo. . . ................... 1,124,603 973,412 1,073,578 Ti,¥e deposlt..... . .. .. ..•. ... ... ... .... ... .. .. . .. . 184,366 143,336 178,747 UDlted States Government depOSIts: ... .. . . ...... .. . 07,707 140,314 136,256 Intcrbapk deposits......... .. .. ..... ... .. .. .. . . . .. 451,384 44~JI00 41~J004 BorrOWings from Federal Roeerve Bank. • . . . . . . . . . . . Nono None None 0Includes all demand dcposits other than interbank and United Stoics Governmont, lee cosh items reported as on hand or in process of colleotion: DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS (Thousands of dollars) May May Pctg.chango 1044 1043 over year Abilene ................. $ 16,252 $ 16,490 + 5 Amarillo................ 41,751 42,075 - 3 Austin.................. 76,106 92,471 -18 Beaumont.... ... ........ 51,155 52,442 - 2 Corpus Christi........... 45,038 41,031 +12 Corsioana............... 5,263 9,479 -44 Dallos.. • .. • .. .. .. .. .. .. 511,070 427,726 + 10 El Poso.. • .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 56,883 51,301 + 11 204,004 176,026 +16 Fort Worth.............. Galveston. .............. 40,140 36,735 + 0 Houston .. .. , .. .. .. .. .. . 525,068 425,210 +24 Laredo.................. 12,834 11,134 +15 Lubbock................ 24,374 20,735 +18 Monroo, La.............. 16,718 15,376 + 0 Port Arthur.. . .. .. .. .. .. 21,802 18,845 + 16 Roswell, N. M........... 8,232 7,078 +16 Son Angelo.............. 14,286 14,286 No ehg. San Antonio............. 148,585 131,384 +13 Shreveport, La......... .. 78,704 72,214 + 9 17,452 14,006 +25 Texnrkana o.... ......... . Tueson, Ariz............. 29,072 25,132 +16 Dler................... 20,840 16,418 +27 Waco................... 22,131 25,863 - 14 Wichita Falls............ 28,030 20,509 +37 April Pctg.change 1944 over month 16,738 - 3 39,623 + 5 80,977 -12 54,501 - 6 46,061 - 2 5,830-10 509,363 + t 61,220 - 7 186,423 +10 41,432 - 3 500,232 + 6 11,458 +12 25,874 - 6 16,322 + 2 22,237 - 2 7,685 + 7 12,709 +142 142.357 + 73,200 + 8 17,457 - t 27,735 + 5 20,241 + a 24,844 -11 28,885 +17 ToW-24 citi............ $2,017,290 $1,763,883 +14 $1,074,304 + 2 .Ineludoe the figures of two banks in Tcxarkana, Arkansns, located in the Eighth District. fChange less tban one-half of one pcr cent. GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS (Average of doily figures-Thousands of dollars) Combined total Rescrve city banks Country banks Gross demand 1042 .... ..... . . $1,820,568 May 1043 . .... ...... 2,846,872 May January 1044.. ......... 3,242,366 February 1944 ........... 3,277,127 March 1044 ...... ... .. 3,320,227 ~ril 1044.. ......... 8,202,252 ay 1044 .......•... 3,276,467 Gro .. Gross demand Time Time demand Timc $227,607 $1,030,887 $127,432 S 780,676 $100,175 235,518 1,580,606 139,352 1,266,266 96,166 270,576 1,690,310 165,073 1,543,056 104,603 274,586 1,608,420 169,105 1,578,OP8 105,481 277,705 1,725,356 171,302 1,594,870 .100,313 284,538 1,709,275 175,021 1,682,077 108,918 291,280 1,604,017 180,464 1,581,460 110,775 SAVINGS DEPOSITS May 31, 1944 Number of reporting banks 3 Beaumont .. .... ....... .. 8 Dallas ................. . 2 EIPoso .... ........ .... . 3 Fort Worth ............. . 4 Galveston .............. . 10 Houston ................ . 2 Lubboek ............... . 2 Port Arthur .... ....... .. 6 Ssn Antonio .. ... .. ..... . 3 Shrcveport, La ..... ..... . 3 Waco ........ ... ....... · 3 Wiohita Foll•••.••••••••• 58 Allo\her .............. .. ToW .......... . 106 Percentage ohango in Bavings deposits from Number of Amount of ~ savings Bavings May 31, depositors depositB 1043 11,305 $ 5,462,068 +22.1 09,950 40,502,072 +35.6 23,685 12,514,741 +41.6 34,764 19,009,126 +32.5 21,631 14,294,860 +22.7 83,371 43,585,192 +22.2 848 478,185 + 3.8 5,302 3,772,310 +21.2' 31,341 25,876,633 +26.3 28,545 ' 15,863,022 +20.0 8,115 6,427,538 +13 .6 6,627 3,652,400 + 7.6 52,365 32,541,500 +16.8 ----407,880 $223,081,453 ----+25.8 ~ April 80, 1944 + 3.7 + 3.5 • + 3.7 + 3.2 + 2.3 + 2.7 +.7 + 3.0 + 2.0 + 3.4 + 3.2 +.0 + 2.5 + 3.0 4 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW producing areas in this district showed an increase over the same month last year with the exception of northern Louisiana which reflected a decrease in daily average of 12,874 barrels. The largest increase occurred in the west Texas field where the daily average production was 203,736 barrels above that in May, 1943. Daily average production outside this district increased only slightly over that in the previous month, less than 1 per cent, and remained at about the same level as in May, 1943. The allowables set by the Texas Railroad Commission for June and July indicate a continued expansion in daily crude production. An increase of 25,000 barrels daily requested for July over the June production will come largely from the west Texas sour crude fields. Despite the substantial increase in production in the United States during the current year, the demand for crude oil has exceeded output, necessitating substantial withdrawals from above-ground stocks. Net withdrawals of crude oil from storage throughout the country have totaled approximately 7,000,000 barrels since the first of this year. Although stocks of crude oil in this district at the end of May, which amounted to 124,395,000 barrels, was considerably below the peak of 127,000,000 barrels reached in February this year, they were approximately 3 per cent higher than on the same date last year. Stocks of crude oil outside this district, which have remained generally steady during the past three months, amounted to approximately 110,000,000 barrels at the end of May and were 12 per cent smaller than a year earlier. Drilling activity in the Eleventh District, as measured by well completions, has shown a steady increase during the current year and in May was at the highest level since the early part of 1942, but is still considerably below the level in 1941 and prior years. Approximately 2,456 wells were completed in the district during the first five months of 1944 as compared with 1,707 wells completed during the same period in 1943. Dry wells comprised approximately 37 per cent of total completions in both periods. The greatest drilling activity in the district was concentrated in the west and upper Gulf Coastal Texas fields. Cotton consumed at United States textile mills during May totaled 832,000 bales, representing an increase of 7 per cent over the 776,000 bales consumed in April, but a decrease of approximately 8 per cent from the 902,000 utilized in the same month of 1943. Throughout the current season the monthly consumption has been running consistently lower than in the corresponding months of the preceding season. The total consumption for the ten-month period ended May 31, 194'4, amounted to 8,412,000 bales as compared with 9,342,000 during the same period last year, or a decrease of 10 per cent. During recent months the cotton textile industry has been unable to meet the heavy demand for cotton goods for military and civilian use due in part to the decline in employment at textile mills. In an effort to improve the situation, the industry was placed on a minimum work week of 48 hours, effective May 14. Stocks of cotton on hand in consuming establishments at the end of May totaled 2,110,000 bales, as compared with 2,320,000 bales in May last year, indicating a decrease of 9 per cent. Stocks held in public storage and compresses .on May 31 were 9,583,000 bales, which was slightly below the amount on hand at the end of May, 1943. Cotton consumed in Texas mills during May amounted to 17,270 bales as compared with 23,515 bales during the same period last year, a decrease of approximately 27 per cent. The consumption for the ten-month period ended May 31, 1944, amounted to 172,000 bales as compared with 220,000 bales during the corresponding period of the preceding season, or a decrease of 22 per cent. While the May consumption was 7 per cent above that for April, it was the smallest for any corresponding month since 1940. WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS ~----- Number ~ or Retail trade: . reporting Department stores: firms Totaillth Dist.... 48 Dallas............ 7 4 Fort Worth........ Houston........... 7 San Antonio. ... ... 5 Shreveport. . . . . . . . 3 Other cities..... ... 22 Percentage change in ~ Net IIl\les v---Btooks~--May 1944 rrom Jan. 1 to May 1044 fro"'l May April May 31, 1944 May Apr! 1043 1044 from 1043 1043 1044 +23 +11 +16 +15 - 1 +36 +12 +24 +20 - 3 +17 + 8 i14 +23 - t +18 +11 15 +24 - 1 +19 +11 8 +11 + 2 +26 +18 +22 .... +10 + 0 +12 + 2 Retail rurniture: Total 11th Dist .... Dallas ............ El Paso ........... Fort Worth ........ Houston ........... San Antonio ....... 66 7 3 3 8 3 +3 -3 +17 - 0 +7 +7 +t +15 -6 +21 +16 Independent stores:· Oklahoma.... .... . Toxas..... ... ... .. 300 088 +24 +18 +10 + 8 -t - 17 -20 -30 -1 -4 +4 -28 .:-::3 +12 +1l Wholesale trade:· Machinery, cqp't & supplies.. .... .. . 3 +30 + 2 . . . . . .. . Automotive supplics 7 +15 +21 +34 - 1 7 +15 + 3 +i5 +16 - 1 Drugs ... .... . . .... Eleotrical supplies. . 3 + 0 + 0 .... .... .:_:: 4 Grocerics.......... 25 +11 + t + 9 + 5 Hardware. . . ..... . 10 + 1 + 1 + 4 - 5 + 3 Surgicol equipment. 4 +41 +10 +27 Tobaoco & products. • 4 + 17 + 18 + 15 ·Compiled by United States Bureau or Census (wholesale trade figures preliminary). ~Stoeks end 01 month. tChange less than one-hol! 01 ono per cent. INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS Soles ~935-1039 = I00J Wit out seasonal a iustment .. • ..... With soasonal adiustment .... ....... Stocks (1023·1025=100) Without seasonal adiustment ........ With seasonal adiustment ........... Moy 1944 228 228 April 1044 228 232 08 07 00 06 May 1043 101 101 Moreh 1044 227 247 86 85 101 08 BUILDING PERMITS May 1044 No. Valuation 21 $ 13,460 Abilene ......•.•. 124,036 05 Amarillo ......... 46,448 06 Austin ........... 41,450 138 Boaumont ....•... 110 115,553 C0lf,UB Christl .... Da as ....•.. •. . . 579 1,400,102 226,590 114 El Paso ........ .. 320,427 Fort Worth ....... 300 87 128,010 Galveston : •...... 798,430 Houston .......... 305 81,648 166 Lubbock ......... 26,483 77 Port Arthur .•.... 312,553 San Antonio ...... 1,108 105 65,546 Shreveport. La .... 258,072 Waco ............ 101 18 0,590 Wiehi to Falls ..... Total. •.... 3.570 $4,057,304 Percentage Percentage ehange valuation rrom Jan. 1 toMay31, 1044 chanSOn valuatlo May 1043 Apr.l044 No. Valuation rrom 1943 - 76 131 174,035 +109 + 0 - 20 487,052 + 31 330 + 31 463 105,687 + 36 +65 + 5 - 59 - 60 370,123 __81 630 43 - 17 - 22 590 600,205 +589 3,037 4,312,442 +436 +110 +378 525,661 _+130 + 17 390 38 - 77 1,270 - 30 1,606,940 44 +500 444 418,305 _+ 30 +460 1,184 2,640,968 + 40 +116 +471 236,525 _+2401 + 26 565 -77 - 31 250 W,005 - 10 4,352 1,732,447 +11 6 04 160 324,004 +154 606 + 22 +224 422 778,759 :1=101 + 8 21 102,235 - 30 - 58 154 + + 30 + 38 14,895 114,606.523 ---+ 8 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED (Thousands 01 dollars) May May 1044 1043 Eleventh District-total. . . $ 11,366 S 25,548 Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . 2,078 7,340 All other. . . .. . . . . . . . . . 0,288 18,208 United Stotcs·-total.. . . . 144,202 234,426 Residential. . . . . . . .. ... 34,476 63,291 100,726 171,135 All other . .... ... . .. ... ·37 states east 01 the Rocky Mountains. SOUROE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. January 1 to May 31 1044 194 a $ 72,060 $23t,a04~ 10,455 56,7 55,505 174,0 45 706,355 1,621'm 173,270 418, 65 623,085 1,203,0 April 1944 S 12,865 2,815 10,050 170,286 37,772 141,514 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION- (Barrels) May 1944 Inoronse or deorease in d.ily avorage produetion ~ Total Dailyavg. May 1043 April 1044 produotion produotion 15,411 3,312 North Texas .. .. .•.•......... 7.390,000 238,387 West Texas ..•.........•..... 13,335,850 430,180 +203,730 +55,~~: East Tex"" ........•.•....... 15,544,050 501,450 + 30,508 + 11, 008 South Texas ................ . 9,528,550 307,373 + 04,457 + 13, 650 Texas Coastal. ............. .. 16,130,150 520,327 +146,006 ~ + Total Texas......... New MOIico.. ... ...... .... . . North Louisiana.. .. . ......... 01,929,600 3.404,660 2,208,050 1,097,726 109,824 74,160 +400,118 + 12,843 - 12,874 --- --- --- Total Distriet .......• 67.633,000 +490,087 2,181.710 SOURCE: Eatimatod Irom American Petroleum Institute weekly roportl. + ---+86,lil - 2,O~ - 1,73 +81,71 2 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW JULY 1, 1944 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF .BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION "'. U~I • ~ l" C . ~ " 0 "'UU!)OOU'AIIooNITIII, II "'.lto . . '" 1/ "0 ./ ' r-' ..... 220 / 1/ '00 180 "0 , ./ ) -'1 100 I. 1137 / IV VI 240 200 leo / 160 '40 120 100 eo. 1. 38 ,.38 1040 1041 1043 IOU 1044 ahFedera l Reserve index. Month ly figures, latest own is for May, 1944. ",,",. -.., NIIIAL UIU. M.UOOIIoUY _no , 20 , '<0 It- / / TOT"" "0 V 100 ~V 60 ,/ / 80 I00 IALAII,IU AHDWAGt'j 60 -...,.,. V --- eo V ---rr- . . .........~- 40 T~tHTi 20 o '0 1940 1942 1944 1940 194 4 1942 \\TBased on Department of Commerce estimates. n ages and salaries include military pay. Monthly AB'Ures raised to annual rates, latest shown are for <'Dri!, 1944. MEMQER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES ' IUIGUor DOI.U'. 50 r-----4----~----4-----+_--~~---i40 30 20 10 o 1939 1 8~ 1 1940 IVf2 I ~' b emand deposits (adjusted) exclude U. s. G!'v. ~rnm en t and inter.bank deposits and collection ItemS. Government securities include direct and liullranteed issues. Wednesday figures, latest shown nre for June 14, 1944. MEMBER BANK RES~RVES AND RELATED ITEUS ~.- -. -~ /----..-. ·····--·r··---·· OOLotTOCK 20 r---+- '" 13 -,;.-0' F....c.'. .-",_ +-_ c•• ~----·Al~--_+~I--_1'· 11 ,.... ,",0 ,0 CI~~~~T%N. 7 1941 1M2 1843 ___-' 10 1944 la¥"ednesday figures, latest shown are for June 14, 4. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production continued to decline in May and the Board's seasonally adjusted index was 237 per cent of the 1935-39 average as compared with 239 in April. Small declines in output of metal prbducts and nondurable goods accounted for most of the decrease in the total index. Steel prod uction was maintained at a high rate. Supplies of aluminum and magnesium continued to exceed military requirements after further curtailment of output in May, and relaxation of rcstrictiollS on the usc of these metals in civilian products was annoWlced on June 18 . Activity in munitions industries declined slightl y in May. Aircraft production was at approximately the same daily average rate as in the preceding month. Deliveries of merchant ships declined somewhat from the April rate, re£lecting curtailment of Liberty Ship construction; the number of Victory ships delivered rose further in May. Outpu t of lumber and of stone, clay, and glass products declined further in May. Additional Federal control was established over lumber consumption, effective in t he third quarter, in order to assure sufficient supplies for essential requirements. INCOME PAYMENTS TO INDIVIDUALS 160 Industrial activity and employment declined slightly further in May. Value of retail trade was maintained in May and the first three weeks of June and commodity prices showed little change . Production of most nondu rable goods was likewise somewhat lower in May than in April. Cotton consumption declined 6 per cent from the rate prevailing earlier this year to a level 16 per cent below May 1943. Output of manufactured dairy products showed a large seasonal rise in May while manufacture of most other food products declined somewhat, after allowance for seasonal changes. Output of crude petroleum and coal continued to rise and iron are production reached an exceptionally high level for this season of the year. DISTRIBUTION Department store sales in May were mnintained at the April level, and the Board's seasonally adjusted index, as recently revised , was 173 per cent of the 1935 -39 average. During the first half of June sales continued at about the April-May rate and were 4 per cent larger than in the corresponding period last year. R ailroad freight traffic was maintained at a high level during May and the early part of June. COMMODITY PRICES Wholesale commodity pr ices continued to show little change in May and the early part of June. Retail prices showed a further slight increase in May. The wholesale price index and the cost of living index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics were both at the same level as they were in May 1943. AGRICULTURE Crop prospec ts on June 1 were better than on the same date in the last 10 years except 1942. The total wheat crop appeared likely to exceed a billion bushels as compa red with a harvest of 836 million bushels in 1943 and 974 million in 1942 . Prospects for other grains, however, were not as favora ble and, with grain stocks reduced, it is expected that total supplies available to meet food, feed, and industrial needs will continue short. In recent months the feed situation has beell eased by generally good condition of the h ay crops and pastures. BANK CREDIT In the five months from ti,e beginning of the Fourth War Loan Drive to the beginning of t he Fifth Drive, Federal Reserve Bank holdings of U. S. Government securities increased by more than 3 billion dollars. Member bank borrowi ngs at Federal R eserve Banks also increased somewhat during the period, and at times exceeded 200 million dollars for the first time in more than a decade. These additions to Reserve Bank credit supplied the market with funds to meet a growth of nearly 2 billion dollars in money in circulation, an increase of 700 million in member bank required reserves, and a loss of gold of 700 million. Excess reserves, which declined to as low as 600 million dollars during the period, amounted to 1.1 billion on June 14. During the Drive, purchases of Government securities by businesses and individuals will shift deposits to reserve-exempt Government war·loan accounts and reduce the amount of reserves that member banks arc required to hold . This will result in some further increase in excess reserves and some repurchases of Government securities by member banks from the Reserve Banks. Adjusted demand deposits at member banks in leading cities have risen by about 5 ~ billion dollars since the end of the Fourth Drive and arc more than 2 ~ billion dollars above the level prevailing prior to that D rive. Time deposits also increased steadily. Government security holdings at reporting banks declined by close ro 2 billion dollars between mid-February and mid -June, following an increase of around 3 billion during the Fourth Drive. Bill holdings declined substantia lly, paralleling increases in such holdings at the R eserve Banks. Loans to brokers and dea lers in securities, which by the end of May had declined well below their early January levels, increased somewhat in the first two weeks of June preparatory to the Drive. Other loans for handling Government securities are close to their pre-Fourth Drive level. Again in the Fifth Drive, as in the previous one, borrowings for speculative purchases will be discouraged.
@FedFRASER