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MONGJrHLG)( REVIEW FEDERAL Vol. 41, No.1 RES E R V E o BANK DALLAS F January 1,1956 DALLAS, TEXAS THE SOUTHWESTERN ECONOMY IN In IIcarly every phase of the southwes tern and national cconomies, with the exception of agriculture, 1955 was a year in which new records of production, consumption, income, credit, and employment were established. More people were employed at higher levels of income for steadier periods of time and were more productive than in any previous year. From the early days in January (with economic recovery well under way) through the closing days of December (with a strong economic boom in evidence) , the attitude of both consumers and businessmen became more and more optimistic. Not even the shock of the President's illness could long restrain the broad wave of confidence. This exuberance was manifest in the willingness of consumers to buy unprecedented amounts, either with their own expanding incomes or with borrowings. While consumer buying spread throughout the market, its strength was most noticeable in consumer durable goods, where it was supported by a substantial expansion of consumer instalment credit. Industrial production in both the Southwest and the Nation rose steadily throughout the year, and although manufacturing employment remained below its 1953 peak, the physical output of goods was higher than in 1953. Durable goods manufacturing industries, which experienced the greatest declines in 1954, showed the sharpest increases in 1955. Nondurable goods industries showed smaller production increases but, as a whole, reached record levels before the durable goods industries. Shortages of many basic raw materials (such as steel and copper), as well as shortages of other factors of production, hampered output in a few indus· tries in the last half of the year. 1955 In the Southwest, 1955 will be remembered as one of the best years for the majority of consumers and businessmen. In order to take a closer look at the individual areas of the Southwest and their particular changes, it is necessary to consider the various facets of the economy and the relative changes in those areas since 1954. Production While there is no comprehensive measure of industrial production for the Southwest, the measurement of changes in output can be obtained by consideration of the major com· ponents where direct production data are available and by an analysis of the level of employment for the remaining sectors of our industrial complex. Manufacturing employment in the five southwestern states in 1955 averaged more than 2 percent above that of 1954, and, at an estimated total of 736,600 in November, was within 4,000 of the record established in 1953. The majority of the gain was in Texas and Oklahoma, although marked increases occurred in certain categories of manufacturing employment in all District states except Louisiana. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT F I VE SOUTHWESTERN STATES US A NO S THOUS4NDS OF 1'[11;, ONS or PER SONS ! 0 7 40 / '''-J. 73 0 72 7 30 JiY 0 7 20 ~551 The only segment which did not participate in this new I ... ~ ';; 7 10 71 expansion was agriculture. Although total agricultural proo duction in 1955 was comparable to that of 1954, there were / ,,- _ ......",. 7 00 still large differences among areas and among crops. More7001--... over, price declines caused a further contraction of cash farm 0 .. { I income. The trends toward a smaller agric ultural population N 69 J M A o A M 0" 90 and an enlarging farm size continued in 1955, although the [-[.I ,""orI4. number of farm workers employed was about the same as in SOI,lRCE Stoh 0tlftcln . the previous year. This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) V ~Ii--j-( ."'~ Iormlnl I. /11 , __ ' " -- MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 As measured by manufacturing employment, the major gains in 1955 occurred in lumber and wood products, primary metals, machinery, printing and publishing, and chemicals and allied products_ The tremendous demand for steel, stemming from the continued growth in oil activities, steadily expanded the demand for labor in the primary metals industry _ The gains in machinery employment stemmed largely from increased plant and equipment expenditures, particularly in the latter half of the year_ The improved demand for lumber and other building materials occasioned an iucrease in lumber and wood products employment, which reversed the long-term decline in snch employment. Increased employment in the chemical and allied products industry reflected the enlargement of existing plants and the construction and operation of new plants_ Employmen t in transportation equipment industries in 1955 was virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The Texas aircraft industry maintained a relatively steady level of activity, but aircraft manufacturing employment rose markedly in the Tucson, Arizona, area. Automobile manufactnring employment increased, while shipbuilding fluctuated considerably during 1955. Activity in the Nation's oil industry was particularly strong in 1955, and every major phase-from drilling through production, refining, and marketing--set new records of performance. Moreover, domestic production was supplemented by a higher level of imports, which was 15 percent above the 1954 total. Demand for petroleum products increased 4 percent; demand for gasoline and residual fuel oj) was especially strong. The growth in the number of automobiles and trucks and their more intensive use were the major causes of the increased use of gasoline, while the greater demand for resid· ual oil stemmed from improved operations of factories, power plants, and transportation agencies. The improvements in the Nation 's oil industry were reflected in similar gains in the District. As demand increased, District crude oil production also rose and for the year as a DAILY AVERAGE CRUDE OI L PRODUCT ION ELEVENTH FEDERA L RESERV E DISTRICT ,." ,., l LlOI'IS 4 - or 1II 11..t. IOl'l 5 BA R RELS 2 ,A, ~ ,/~ c-\ .1 ,, ,. :,)(, ~"" ,... F M A M so U",ts·~;:~,'cY::;~~lg~ ~'i:~ " . !It~ It. .4 ./ , / , ,/~ 3.0 \l .... • .S, / \ 0 -,'" 1954 E-hli",OI.'. ," 8"'FlIl[ , ,., \ 955 ,. 2. or .!- , I 'll"( , A S 0 2 .9 N 2 .8 DAILY AVERAGE CRUDE RUNS TO REFINERY STILLS EL E VENTH FEDE RAL RE SERVE DI STRI CT "'2.Io4 LIONS OF ."' RA(t. S 2. 2. "II LLIOHS OF eMUIE , /'1'---- , 1 2.O ~' ,,-----L 2 .3 /~ 955 "I 2/ /""-: " / -.J , .. " " ''''~ .2 2 I I '~ 2 .'. .....L " ' ,,,...... .... , 2 .0 1954 1.9 9 I. 8, " 2 .4 F (' ( It!m eled SOV ~CES U S. eu" gUIII " A M , , A S 0 N oI. 8 "' ,UI. Am" ';GII Pel ' lI leum I" "I,Iu te. whole averaged nearly 3,200,000 barrels per da y, or 194,000 barrels more than in 1954. However, the number of statewide producing days in Texas, at 1<)4, was unchanged from a year earlier, indicating a further noticeable rise in productive capacity. Crude oil production and refining activity reached new records early in 1955 and, after a slight cu tback in late spring and summer, rebounded to even higher levels in November and December. District refinery r uns averaged 2,190,000 barrels per da y, which is nearly 156,000 barrels- or 8 percentabove the 1954 average. This District percentage increase is slightly above the gain registered for the Nation, reflecting the improvement in refining activity along the Texas Gulf Coast. The stronger demand situation and strengthening pdces, coupled with increases in production and refining, stimulated drilling during 1955. Total well completions in the District reached a new record and were about 3 percent above those of 1954·, compared with a nationwide increase of 1 percent, The major gain in the District was in development drilling, while in the Nation, wildcat drilling showed the sharpest increase. Alth ough no major fields were discovered in the District in 1955, there was considerable activity in extending existing fields into new pay sands . The marketed production of natural gas in the four producing states lying wholly or partially within the District continued to expand in 1955, and it appears that such production may exceed that of 1954 by nearly 15 percent. Demand also increased appreciably, as new consuming areas were connected by pipelines and existing customers increased conswnption. Other hasic mllllllg activities in the District-including ~ potash, sulfur, and copper-recorded substantial increases over production in 1954. The recovery of potash from mines near Carlsbad, New Mexico, rose sharply as new producers entered the field and as the demand for fertilizers increased J MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT MILLIONS 01 DOL ILLlOfrtSOlflOU"'" "2 ,"0 ! 160 140 ~ ____1\ ' ~ , _/ 120 I , ! .,.;- .... - ~ - ... ~ ---i--I" i --I. 1,....... ' RESIDENTIAL F .......... " ' 19'4 M ... A .. " I60 I40 I20 ISS4' I 80~ " F--_...... ,"'-, I ', ~ ~-- 60 l ~"_~/_ TOTAL: " ~"" -d::J , I 80 I ,I ', II V '1 1 0 0 -;,' tts -/,. A L'" 2 00 /ii' I I00 __ "1 o . 8 ' ... - - I level in the last 6 months. On an annual-rate basis, new housing starts in the Nation began 1955 at about 1,400,000 but by November had declined to 1,200,000, averaging about 1,300,000 for the year. In the Southwest, most of the fluctuation in residential construction activity occurred in or near the larger cities, since construction activity in the smaller areas was relatively stable. 6o '-IElII.,,". SOUftGE" .• . OHgt 0.., ..... 11011. with more intensive farming. Sulfur production likewise expanded in 1955, primarily in response to increased demands from improved industrial activity and the discovery of new sulfur deposits in the Southwest. Copper production, although quite active in most months, did not show the expected gain, largely because of shutdowns due to labor disputes. In other areas of production, such as building materials, tbe strong demand for cement caused capacity operations in the Southwest's cement mills during most of 1955. Total production of portland cement in Texas mills increased 12 percent over that of 1954, and with continuing strong demands in prospect, producers are planning substantial increases in capacity during 1956. The demand for and price of cement moved up sharply in the summer months, but seasonal cutbacks eased the cement sbortage toward the end of the year. Scattered reports indicate that lumber production increased only slightly in 1955, while industry sources in brick, stone, and clay plants relate a picture of intense activity througbout the year. Construction activity in the Southwest and in the Nation increased sharply over that in 1954, although the year-to-year comparisons tend to show reverse patterns of development. In 1954, construction activity did not begin developing rapidly until the latter part of the year, whereas in 1955 the greatest growth was evident in the first half of the year. Tbe value of construction contracts awarded in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District was nearly 21 percent above that of 1954; in the Nation, such awards increased nearly 22 percent. Construction employment in the five states of the District in 1955 averaged slightly higher than in 1954. Most of the regional gain in construction during the first half of 1955 stemmed from an increase in residential construction; in the second half of the year, nonresidential construction was much stronger. In the District and in the Nation, residential construction activity accelerated quickly through the first half of the year but eased to a more moderate Nonresidential construction, on the other hand, showed fairly consistent gains throughout 1955 and provided most of the stimulus to total construction during the latter half of the year. The principal areas of increase in this activity were commercial, public works, and manufacturing building construction. As reflected by contract awards in Texas, the only District state for which detail is available, the value of construction awards for commercial buildings rose to a new record in 1955, exceeding the 1954 total by more than 13 percent_ Similarly, public works construction reached a new high in 1955, with the value of awards increasing 31 percent over the 1954 level, and public and institutional construction contract awards rose 36 percent to a new record_ Utility construction, while nearly 5 percent over the previous year, was well below the record established in 1952. The gain in manufacturing construction, as reflected by a 190-percent increase in the value of contract awards in 1955, shows the continued growth of industrialization in the Southwest. Industrial manufacturing contract awards reached their fourth highest level in the history of Texas. This gain is particularly significant in the face of a nearly 8-percent decline in military construction in the five District states and a 50percent decline in such construction in Texas. From scattered information, it seems probable that much of the increased construction occurred in those same areas of growth as has been the case in the past few years--Le., chemical, petroleum, and fabricated metals industries. Agricultural production in the District states in 1955 was virtually equal to output in 1954, despite drought and unfavorable growing conditions during the early part of the CASH RECEI PTS FROM FARM MAR KETINGS FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES or DOLLARS Wl l LIONS 4'0 .. I LL ION' 0' DOLL.lItS .!.. 40'~--~-+--1---~-+--1---r--t~"1 E ,I ,"/V .0 o \ 19.4 / Y ' ! 'O~\ 0( " 5 t-E"""gltd ,___~,' ,~ i J J A SOU PICE U S OUOflmtfti 01 A, ,,ul lw ... M ' 350 ,00 19.' 1 A ~ 400 250 1 \:"- ,I ~' ,' 1 -V I M 450 i::?\ '00 SON 0 '50 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 4 year- which reduced the production of wheat, oats, barley, and other winter grains. Favorable moisture conditions at critical periods and the increased usage of fertilizers, better seeds, and other improved practices combined to provide record and near· record yields for many spring·planted crops. The 1955 District cotton crop is estimated at approximately the same as tbe 1954 crop, despite a 14-percent reduction in acreage allotments; while the rice crop was only 11 percent below 1954 output, even with a 21.percent curtailment in acreage. The production of grain sorghums, corn, and peanuts in 1955 was sbarply above tbe levels in the previous year. The relative abundance of feed grains at somewhat lower prices, the reduction in acreages of some important crops, and the relative improvement in range conditions after mid· year encouraged high.level output of meat animals and ani· mal products in the District during 1955. Although the production of wool was slightly below that in 1954" the out· put of poultry products and red meat was sharply above the year·earlier levels. Live.weight cattle and calf slaughter was up about 2 percent from the preceding year; sheep and lamb slaughter, up 12 percent; hogs, up 17 percent; and poultry, up 14 percent. Although agricultural output in the District in 1955 gen· erally compares favorably with that in 1954, production in a few areas was disappointing. Drought in tlle early part of the year severely affected tlle income of farmers in the High Plains wheat area and in south Texas counties. Late.spring freezes damaged citrus fruits and pecans; virtually destroyed other fruit; and necessitated the replanting of cotton, sor· ghums, corn, and some vegetables in many parts of the Dis· trict. Moreover, heavy rains and early fall freezes damaged cotton and decreased yields on the South Plains of Texas. Severe insect infestations reduced yields in parts of Texas and Louisiana. Under the impact of large carry·over supplies, lower sup· port levels for many products, and the high level of produc. tion in 1955, prices received by District farmers-as evi· denced by Texas midmonthly farm prices- continued to weaken and averaged about 2 percent below the 1954 aver· age, with livestock prices registering the greatest decline. Moreover, production costs rose substantially above those of the previous year. Outlays for replanting, higher labor and equipment costs, and more intensive applications of fertilizer added to out·of·pocket expenses. For ranchers, the cost of providing supplemental feed made livestock operations more expensive. As a result of these increased costs, net farm in· come was not as satisfactory as the large marketings would indicate. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES ElEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT :~lg;'-'_'----._--._r('-'I"·4:;7-,-4 ::.:·:.:c·r 'O,,, 0.!.. ) ,-....,.--r- t -( II""al _" fo, ua,ona l ' O, far loft, A~j ult'd over inventory buying, consumer demand was so strong that inventories rose more slowly than sales. At the manufacturers' level, shortages of basic raw materials also retarded inven· tory accumulation. Department store sales in the District established a new record in 1955 and were nearly 8 percent above those of 1954; the strongest demand centered upon consumer duro ables, which showed a year·to·year gain of about 15 percent. Soft goods sales were fairly steady until early fall, when an upturn thrust the year· end total to a level nearly 6 percent above that of 1954. Average month·end department store inventories reached a new record in 1955, being 8 percent more than those of 1954 and 2 percent more than the previous record-established in 1953. Total retail trade apparently was as strong as, if not strong· er than, department store trade. New automobile sales in four major cities in the District-Dallas, El Paso, Houston, and San Antonio- increased nearly 45 percent above those DEPARTMENT STORE STOCKS ElEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE: OISTRICT (1947 49.100) '" '" I. • I. a 14 S Underlying these production movements was a broad and rising demand for nearly all types of consumer goods. In the Nation and in the Southwest, consumers were willing to buy in increasing amounts the goods produced by the mines and factories. Nevertheless, the liquidation of inventories in 1954 turned to an accumulation in 1955, although at a relatively modest rate. While businessmen adopted fairly tight controls 13 , ' / .,.. 0 12 I .0 J , ,... - - I , -- ..... -- ., I 40 _L ..,,---... 'I / - 1 ........ _ -;::::- ,.,- I M :.- v,••• :.- V • 12 0 J '"I " L , •• !..-V 14 0 Consumption ,--'{'NfS:o A [ - £.11"' 01,,, " " ju liO I". "D. o~ol .Q ,jo !l o" M .. 19'4 I '0 I I 25 A o I MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW in 1954, compared with a nationwide gain of about 39 percent. Competition among dealers was very strong, thereby reducing profit margins_ Moreover, the extension of consumer credit with unusually long maturities and low down payments intensified the competitive efforts. Scattered information on retail sales outlets in the Eleventh District indicates that total sales increased slightly faster than in the Nation. Sales at District gasoline service stations; automotive stores; and lumber, building materials, and hardware establishments increased much faster than those at comparable stores in the Nation_ On the other hand, sales at furniture, furnishings, and appliance stores; food stores; and eating and drinking places in the Nation rose considerably faster than those in the District. The demand for agricultural products showed some further gain, but with large surpluses and substantial production, demand was insufficient to maintain steady prices. During 1955, consumers continued to spend about one-fourth of their incomes for food, and with higher average incomes, the total expenditures for food were above those in 1954. Demands for services were at record levels, and nearly all businesses connected with the tourist industry reported excellent sales in 1955. Transportation companies, except local transit firms, showed substantial increases in business, with motor truck, barge, and tanker traffic reported as being very heavy. Employment, Income, and Credit Employment conditions in the five states of the District improved steadily throughout 1955, reaching a new record in September and in each subsequent month of the year. Total nonagricultural employment averaged nearly 3,895,400 workers in 1955, compared with 3,799,300 workers in 1954. Although all major categories of employment had shown some improvement by the end of the year, the primary gains were made in manufacturing, mining, trade, service, and govern- NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT .• FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IL.LIOfilS OF P[R SOh'S WILI.. I O" S OF P[ ASO N .1 4 , y 4 .0 4 .0 --"f'fflt 4±1 1 ~--------- • 8 ~ , ' ____ ,-' ;:;::::;;1 .7 .6JV .,.--' 3 .9 3 5 ment employment. Percentagewise, the greatest increases were in finance, mining, and manufacturing employment. The smallest gain was registered by transportation and utility concerns . The increase in government employment was primarily at the state and local level. Federal Government employment declin ed early in the year and then leveled out, except for seasonal fluctuations. The gains in trade and service employment reflected the improved business conditions, as well as the population and sub urbanization growth near the larger metropolitan areas. Shortages of skilled workers were common by the end of the year. Unemployment declined rapidly as workers found new jobs in the expanding economy. In Texas, unemployment decreased from a 1954 average of 128,500 to a 1955 level of 113,600, with all major labor market areas sharing in the decline. The two markets classified as areas of substantial surplus in 1954--San Antonio and Texarkana- made considerable improvement, although Texarkana remained a labor surplus area. The people of the Southwest and of the Nation received higher incomes in 1955 than in any previous year. The average weekly earnings of southwestern manufacturing workers, including substantial overtime payments, rose to a record level of nearly $77 in the latter part of the year, or about 7 percent above those in 1954. The highest average weekly earnings were in the durable goods and mining industries, led by petroleum workers-whose earnings averaged in excess of $100 per week in the last part of 1955. Average hourly earnings of Texas manufacturing workers increased almost 5 percent during the year. Cash farm income in 1955 declined nearly 5 percent compared with the previous year. However, it should be noted that an increasing number of farmers held nonfarm jobs at least part of the year, and income from such jobs was a valuable addition to their farm income_ A considerable increase in consumer credit supplemented the generally rising level of income. Southwestern purchasers, along with those in the Nation, bought more and more consumer durables on instalment credit and charge accounts at retail establishments. At the end of 1955, consumer credit outstanding at District department stores was about 8 percent above a year earlier, with instalment credit up 15 percent and charge account credit up 4 percent_ During the past year, instalment sales at District department stores were nearly 28 percent above those in 1954, and regular charge accounts increased 6 percent. .S 1954 , Banking and Finance .7 • M A [ - (tl' '''OIAd :OOU AC[ ' S lot •• ",p lo,,,, ... ' OC. ~ ( I .' M J J A S 0 N -" 3 . The economic growth of the Southwest during 1955 was stimulated and facilitated by a large increase in credit. Businessmen required more working capital to produce and distribute a larger volume of goods and also needed loans to finance capital expenditures for plant and equipment. In MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 6 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND TOTAL DEPOSITS MEMBER BANKS - ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ~~bllONSOFOOlL RS "(lIOH! Of' DOL ~~8 8.0=:-" .or-= ..... .... _ ~r--=:: 8.0 1900 1" --,.V:J...:.., ........... , """" 100.. _ ' OEPOSITS -........ ) , - - __ !.-_- I .. ' 1... ..- ....... 8.0 19S4 7.01--+-+-1--+-,---1--+-+---11--+----i 7.• of--I--+-+-L--+-+-I--+-+-1---1 7.0 190' ~ •.• l! I ......~ 6.' I I ~ LOANS and INVESTMENTS I , ___(,,,, .,-'r-i-r-- 60'-.:1= 5.SJ F I _--"'=+-1--+-+---16.0 1904 M A he • s o addition, the consumer used larger amounts of credit than in any previous year to buy these goods and services. The result of all these credit requirements was a very strong loan demand at commercial banks in this District throughout 1955. Total loans and discounts at the end of November were 16 percent above those on the corresponding date in 1954. Much of the increase was attributable to credit demands in the commercial, industrial, and agricultural; rcal-estate; and "all other" (primarily consumer) categories. In view of near-c'apacity industrial production, shortages of raw materials, narrowing margins of unused labor, strong demands for credit, and developing inflationary pressures, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System shifted from one of ease at the start of 1955 to mild restraint in the second quarter and, finally, to increasing restraint in the closing 6 months. Four separate increases were made in the Reserve bank discount rates, and System policies limited the amount of reserves supplied through open market operations to meet seasonal demands for credit. Thus, member banks had to rely more extensively upon borrowing from the Federal Reserve bank to provide needed reserves. Most of the pressure on bank reserve positions fell upon the larger reserve city banks, which normally keep only a small amount of excess reserves. In meeting the loan demand, banks relied primarily upon an internal shifting of assets, since deposits increased very little. Total loans and investments evidenced only a moderate gain, as an increase in loans was largely counterbalanced by a decrease in investments. When excess reserves declined and credit demands continued, banks liquidated investments, especially short-term Government securities holdings. At the end of November, total investments of member banks were nearly 8 percent below a year earlier, with holdings of Government securities down 11 percent while holdin gs of other securities increased 10 percent. At the same time that they liquidated investments, banks also drew down cash and balances at the Federal Reserve and other banks. Most of the decline came as a res ult of the withdra wal of interbank deposits, which decreased more than 10 percent. One result of these moves to meet the loan demand was a decline in liquidity. Many large banks used all their excess reserves and had to borrow from the Federal Reserve System in order to maintain the required level of reserves. Borrowings by member banks expanded sharply during 1955, with the larger banks accounting for most of the increase . While the lotals of the major banking measurements portray most of the significant changes during the year, a breakdown of loans, investments, deposits, and capital accounts reveals certain other important developments. The strong loan demand by business firms was highlighted by the requirements of trade and sales finance concerns, although petroleum, coal, chemical, and rubber; food and liquor; and textile and apparel manufacturers and utilities also expanded their credit demands substantially. Changes in investment portfolios were selective during 1955; short-term Government holdings generally were liquidated, while holdings of intermediate· and long-term Government securities were fairly stable and holdings of other secu rities increased. Most issues of intermediate- and longterm bonds sold below par much of the year, and for that reason, banks were reluctant to dispose of them. Total deposits of member banks at the end of November 1955 showed less than a I-percent rise from a year earlier, with demand deposits down nearly 2 percent although time deposits gained more than 14 percent. An increase in demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations was offset by decreases in demand deposits of other banks and the United States Government. However, deposit turnover was more rapid in 1955, indicating a more intensive use of available funds. Another significant change in banking measurements was the marked increase in capital accounts during the past year. TOTAL LOANS AND TOTAL INVESTMENTS MEMBER BANkS - ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (lILLIONS OF DOll ""'5 40 8 1LLIONS Of' OOLL il.RS 4.0 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW The renewed economic growth of the Southwest and the especially high demands for credit induced a large number of banks to expand their capital structures. Capital accounts of member banks in this District increased 12 percent from November 1954 to November 1955. While both large and small banks increased their capital structures, the most substantial gains were at the larger reserve city banks. Summary and Outlook In considering the possibilities of economic development during 1956, a number of current trends affecting the entire economy need to be weighed carefully. The inAationary pres· sures which developed in the latter half of 1955 seem likely to continue into 1956. With a number of basic industries operating near capacity and with shortages of most basic raw materials, as well as other factors of production, a further 5ignificant expansion in the physical output of goods and services cannot be expected in the first half of 1956. On the other hand, with a possibility of tax cuts, a rise in the minimum wage. and general increases in most wages, the purchasillg power of individual consumers is expected to expand, thus creating further demands upon these short supplies. In addition, the increasing level of plant and equipment expenditures will mean a further drain upon basic raw materials and labor. 7 However, it should be noted that there are some possibilities of a developing weakness in the economy. A sharp upturn in the rate of inventory accumulation, a continued decline in residential construction, or a further weakening of the agricultural situation could create other destabilizing influences which might disturb the balance within the economy. Nevertheless, at the present time, it appears that the other factors in the economy are sufficiently strong to outweigh these potential weaknesses. In consequence, the economy probahly will be faced with problems of further increases in wages and prices and other inAationary pressures, rather than difficulties of a deflationary nature. In the Southwest, although these trends will set the general economic environment, other trends may be of equal significance to the regional economy_ The dronght, acreage allotments, and declining agricultural price problems are of particular importance in the Southwest, and with the large crop surpluses, it seems unlikely that either of the latter two will be corrected this year. The construction picture for the Southwest is not markedly different from that of the .Nation except in the nonresidential fields, where continued industrial growth is expected to cause a somewhat brighter picture for this area. In fact, the only major differences in outlook between the Southwest and the Nation appear to be a more concentrated effect of the agricultural conditions and an offsetting element of growth in industrial, commercial, and service industries. ·s MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW REVIEW OF BUSINESS, AGRICULTURAL, AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Christmas buying at Eleventh District department stores in 1955 increased moderately above the record-high Christmas volume of 1954. Novem ber department store sales were 4 percent above those of November 1954 but showed a less than seasonal gain of 2 percent over October. Inventories at the close of November were 13 percent above a year earlier, and orders outstanding were up 12 percent. Moisture is needed in much of the District. The 1955 cotton crop in the District states is placed at 6,025,000 bales, or about the same as output in 1954. Cash receipts from farm marketings in the District states during the January-October period in 1955 totaled $2,292, 164,000, or 8 percent less than in the same months in 1954. The sharply rising demand for heating oil, stimulated by markedly colder weather, caused a moderate increase in crude oil production and a decline in crude stocks during December. Texas oil allowabies for January are unchanged from the midDecember level, but total production should increase as new wells are brought in. Refinery activity in the District in December was down slightly from the November level. Total nonagricultural employment reached its third successive monthly record during November at 3,966,800 workers. The major gains were associated with seasonal increases in trade and government employment. Manufacturing employment rose to 736,600, with transportation equipment and food-processing manufacturers accounting for most of the gain. Christmas b uying at depar tment stores in the Eleventh Feder al Re· serve Distr ict, stimu lated by the higher Icvel of incomcs a nd ri si ng employment, increased moder ately above the reco rd volume of the 1954 Chr istmas season . With one more shopping day during Christmas week in 1955 than in 1954, sales reached an all-time high. The rush of Christmas business at department stor es began dur ing the f irst week of December, when the daily average sales volume r ose 55 percent above the p revious week. Christ· mas buying during the week ended D ecem ber 17 was 5 percent more than the former recor d sales volume established dur ing th e comparable week in 1954. Department store sales in the District in November showed a small increase over the gener ally hi gh vo lume of the pre· vious mon th, but the rise was less than had been evident fr om October to November in other r ecent years. The doll ar sales volume was 2 percent higher than in October and was 4 percen t higher than in November 1954. Refl ecting a less than seasonal gain , the adj usted in dex of sales declined fr om 138 in October to 136 in Novem ber, compared wi th 131 fo r November 1954. Sales of most consumer durable goods items in November continued to run substantially above the 1954 volumes. Sales of domestic fl oor coverings showed the pr incipal gain, rising 18 percent above the year·earlier level. Major househol d appli . ances showed a year· to· year sales increase of 17 percent ; furniture an d bedding, a 12·percen t increase; and television sets, radios, and phonographs, a 3·percent increase. RETAil TRADE STATISTICS ( Percentage cha nge) NET SALES Nov. 19S5 f rom Line of trQd e by a rea District construction activity increased in Novem ber, with the value of total awards 9 percent above the October level. Residential awards were down 20 percent, while "all other" awards rose 27 percent. Cumulative total awards through November were 21 percent higher than in the comparable period of 1954. Gross loans of District weekly reporting member banks increased 1 percent during the 4 weeks ended December 14, with loans to banks and " all other loans" showing the largest gains . Total investments declined 5 percent as holdings of Treasury bills, certificates, and notes were reduced. Bank debits and deposit turnover held steady in November. DEPARTMB'-IT STORES Total Seventh District •••• . ••• • • • • Corp us Chrilti •• • ••••••• • •• • ••• .. Da llal •••..••••••••••• • ••••••• • EI Palo •...•••.••••••••• •• • •••• Fort Worth •••• . • . •• . ••••• • • • ••• Houston •••••••••• • •• •• •.•••• .. Sa n Antonio •• ••• • ••• ••. •• •• • •.• Shreve port, la . •• ••.••• • ••.•.• . • Waco • • •••• . • • •••••••••••• • .. . O ther cities • ••••••••• •• • ..• •• . • FURNITURE STO RES Totcl Eleventh District ••••••••• • •• Amarillo •••• • •• . •••• .. • • •• . ••. • Austin .• ••• • •• • •••••••••••••. . • Da llas ••••••••••••••••••••••.•. HOlJSton ••••••••••••••••• • ••• •• l ub b ock •.••••• .... • .• • .•.. • . • . Port Art hur . ....•. . . . ••.•••••••• San Antonio . . ..•• .. ••..•.•••..• Shreve p o rt, La .•• • •.• . ••• • ••• • •• Wrchito Fa lls •• . ••...••. . .•. .. .• Other cities ••••••. • •. . • • •••.••• HOUSEHO LD APPUANCE STOR ES Total Eleventh District •••••••••• • • Dallas • • • • • •• • ••••.•••••••••••• I Stocks at e nd of month. Nov. Oct. 195 4 1955 4 2 -1 2 5 - 5 13 2 - 2 _ 4 •2 6 5 I 5 8 7 9 13 18 I 17 - 9 6 -u -I - 3 0 -3 _5 0 - 13 -.-. I 6 18 10 7 -1 0 0 3 0 -2 U -. STOCKS I II mo. 1955 cam p . with " Nov. 1955 f rom Nov. Oct. 1954 1955 6 13 33 19 3 5 5 _5 9 12 12 mo. 195 4 9 10 8 7 7 6 13 6 •9 " .. 18 " 16 15 15 17 13 10 23 -II 9 8 15 10 - 7 6 13 " 5 .... 2 -... 0 - I 3 0 3 -1 2 8 0 2 6 - I MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS [1947-49 Area a year earlier but were down 15 percent from October. New car sales in the four cities for the January-November period in 1955 were 405 percent more than in the comparable period of 1954. = 1001 UNADJUSTED Nov. ADJUSTED I Sept. Hov. Nov. Ocr. Sept. Nov. 140 165 131 131 149 149 146 168 136 132 154 138 130 160 131 125 147 131 127 147 167p 162 155 148r 151p 147 146 133 Ce'. 1955 1955 1955 1954 1955 1955 1955 1954- SALES-Daily overage Eleventh District • . ..• . ...••• Dallas ......... ..•. ...... . Houston •.. • . •.. • •. • •.•.•. STOCKS-End of month Eleventh District . ........... 9 155 152 175 146r Adjusted for seasonol variotion. r-Revised. p-Preliminart. I In the soft goods departments during November, sales of piece goods and household textiles made the strongest showing, with a 4-percent gain over those of November 1954. Sales of women's and misses' ready-to-wear apparel and accessories were up 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively. On the other hand, sales of men's and boys' wear and small wares did not change from the year-earlier levels_ Instalment sales during November declined 5 percent from October but were 21 percent above those in November 1954. However, cash and charge account sales increased 3 percent and 9 percent, respectively, from October and were slightly higher than in November 1954.. The proportion of instalment sales to total store sales rose during 1955 and in November was 13 percent, compared with 11 percent a year earlier. The increase in the proportion of instalment sales has offset the reduction in the proportion of charge sales, which was down to 55 percent in November, compared with 57 percent in November 1954. Charge accounts receivable at department stores followed tl,e usual pattern during November, rising 8 percent above October, and at the end of the month were 4 percent above the amount outstanding on the same date of 1954. Instalment accounts showed little change from October but were 15 percent above a year earlier. Department store inventories rose 3 percent during N ovember to reach another new high and were 13 percent higher than on the corresponding date of 1954. Orders ou tstanding declined 3 percent during November, in line with the pattern which normally prevails at this time of year. At the end of November, however, orders outstanding were 12 percent higher than a year earlier, as compared with a 21-percent year-to-year gain at the end of October. Sales at District furniture stores during November continued to show a substantial gain over a year earlier, with a 9-percent increase over November 1954, but were down 3 percent from October 1955. Inventories at the end of the month were 1 percent less than in October but were up 4 percent from the year-earlier figure. Accounts receivable at the close of November were 16 percent above those of a year ago, while collections showed an increase of 19 percent. Registrations of new cars during November in Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio were up 18 percent from Field work is seasonally slow in most parts of the District except the winter vegetable areas of south Texas and the late cotton-growing regions of west Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. Harvesting in these cotton regions is virtually complete. During the first part of December, rains and snow fell over many sections of the District, with the largest amounts occurring in the eastern third. Only light and ineffectual precipitation was received in the western parts of the District. Small grains, winter legumes, and pastures responded to the improved moisture conditions in the eastern sections of the District; but strong, dry winds have dissipated much of the moisture. Rain is especially needed in north and northeastern Texas to maintain development of these crops. Crop and weather conditions in the High Plains area of Texas and New Mexico are following a pattern similar to that which prevailed during the fall of 1954. Winds depleted the moisture provided by light snows early in December, and recurring freezing and thawing, winds, and blowing dust are combin ing to damage wheat. In many northern Plains counties, fields are being chiseled to retard soil erosion. Commercial vegetables in south Texas-particularly hardy-type vegetables and early spring onions-are making good progress. Moisture conditions remain favorable, and most of the crops have escaped damage from low temperatures. Cabbage, cauliflower, and spinach are being shipped; and citrus fruits are moving in volume, with a substantial part of the shipments in mid-December comprising gift packages for the holiday trade. In the Nation the 1955 cotton crop is forecast, as of December 1, at 14,,663,000 bales, or 180,000 bales below the monthearlier estimate but 7 percent larger than production in 1954, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Cotton production in the District states in 1955 is placed at 6,025,000 bales, or 4 percent below the November 1 estimate and 7,000 bales less than output in 1954.. The reduction from the November 1 estimate occurred primarily in the High Plains area of Texas, where yields were considerably below preharvest expectations. The estimates for Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas showed declines from a month earlier, while the forecast for Oklahoma was unchanged and the Arizona estimate was increased slightly. In Texas the 1955 cotton crop is forecast at 4,025,000 bales, or 5 percent below the November 1 estimate but 2 percent larger than production in 1954. With less favorable crop prospects in the High Plains area, the estimated average yield per harvested acre for the State is placed at 2~2 pounds-2~ pounds below the November 1 forecast but 3/ pounds mor~ than in 1954. It is estimated that all crop reporting district~ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 10 COTTON PRODUCTION CITRUS FRUIT PRODUCTION Texas Crop Reporting Districts (In thousands of boxes) (In thousand, of bales-SOO lb . gron wi. ) Average of 10 seasons 1955 1955 Indicated December 1 1954 1953 1954 8·N ...•.•.....• •••• ...... •. 8·5 ..•••.•....•...•••..•..• 9 •••• .•.•.•..•..........•.• 10·N . •.•.••.••••.•••• ..• •• 10·5 .•.......... •.•..... ... 405 1,005 270 255 21 640 145 9S 270 32 160 69 235 36 387 512 1,098 221 180 20 448 75 74 261 25 142 218 192 67 407 548 835 U3 285 39 1,101 136 119 253 39 215 76 238 32 258 79 92 122 U2 105 143 193 128 103 128 113 32 122 54 95 State ...•.. .•• •.•..•..• .• 4,025 3,940 4,317 102 Crop r.porting district I.N .... .......... • •........ 1·5 • .•• ...•.••.•.••••.•.... 2·N .•. •.....••••• • •••.•.• • . 2·5• ..•. ..•.•..•..•••••...• 3 •.••..••. •••• ••••• •••••••• 4 ..••• ..•.. • •.• • ••• • •. • ••.. 5·N ••.•... • . .••••.••••••.•• 5·5 •.•.• •••. •• •.•••••••••.. 6 .•••.. . ••.••• •• •••.••••• •• 7 •.•..•.•...•• •••.•.•.• . •.• Indicated Slate as pel'(enl of 1955·56 1954-5 5 1953·5' ended 1944·53 ARIZONA SOURCE, United States Department of Agriculture. in Texas except Districts 1, 8·S, and 10 produced more cotton, with higher yields, during 1955 than in the previous year. In the Nation, cotton ginnings prior to December 1, 1955, totaled 13,052,006 bales, or 5 percent more lhan during the same period in 1954, according to the United States Department of Commerce. In the District states, 5,149,153 bales of cotton had been ginned prior to December 1, or 2 percent fewer than a year earlier. Approximately 85 percent of the 1955 cotton crop had been ginned by December 1. In the Nation, approximately 89 percent of the cotton had been ginned. The production of winter vegetables in Texas during the 1956 season is estimated, as of December] , 1955, at 7 percent above output in the previous season and 21 percent more than the 6-year (1949-54) average, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Although the estimated acreage of principal winter vegetables is only slightly larger than it was a year earlier, higher per acre yields are indicated for most of the vegetable crops, Oranges. .... . . . . ......... 1.000 1,02" 2.~OO 1, 130 2,470 1, 170 Grapefruit . ......... . . ... , LOUISIANA 2,670 3.119 Oranges . ... ..... . . .. ..... 215 175 100 257 1,800 1,500 2,500 900 1,200 2,946 11,980 TEXAS Oranges ... . . ... .. . ... .. , . Grapefruit.. ......... . .... 2,200 SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. Livestock remain in fair to good condition throughout most of the District. As of December 1, ranges in all of the District states were improved from a year earlier, according to the Department of Agriculture. As a result of the improvement in ranges, cattle and sheep are in better condition than they were at the same time a year earlier. Although supplemental feeding is increasing, ranchers generally are feeding less as compared with the fall of 1954. During December, additional cattle were removed from dry-land wheat pastures in the High Plains, and most of the livestock remaining on wheat pastures are being grazed on irrigated fields. Pasture feed is short in the Plateau area and in a few counties in south Texas, where ranchers are burning prickly pears for feed. Receipts of cattle, calve!, and sheep on local southwestern markets during November and the first part of December were sharply below those during the same period a year earlier. Marketings of cattle and calves from Oklahoma, Texas, alld New Mexico during the peak fall shipping months of October and November 1955 were smaller than in the same months in 1954. The index of prices received by Texas farmers on November 15 was 250 percent of the 1910·14 average, or 1 percent below the mid-October index and about 4 percent lower than a year ago. The crop index increased about 2 percent from mid-October. while the livestock index declined 4 percent. Lower prices for cattle, calves, and hogs contributed heavily to the decline in the livestock price index. Subsequently, grain prices on local southwestern markets have shown slight seasonal increases, while cattle prices have shown mixed trends. Hog prices through mid-December werc generally below month·earlier levels. Cash receipts from farm marketings in District states during the January-October period in 1955 totaled $2,292,164,000, or 8 percent below the same months in 1954, according LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS (Number) FORT WORTH MARKET CROP REPORTING DISTRICTS OF TEXAS No .... No .... Closs 1955 195~ Cattle . • ....... . Colves • . .. .... . 59,709 18,12 3 72,696 ,(5,642 80,77.4 29,734 .49,594 60,353 Hags .••....... , Sheep •• . •. .. .. . I Includes gogts. 0". 1955 72,4 07 22,3~6 60,022 58,903 SAN ANTONIO MARKET Nov. 1955 28,525 23,011 2,179 114,399 Nov. 195.( 35,~"O 3 1,853 2,14 1 116,33 9 Oct. 1955 39,036 28.51 7 3,826 12.4,845 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS (In thousands of dollors) September Area 1955 1954 October 1955 January-October 1954 1955 1954 Arizona .... $ 14,136 $ 19,528 $ 25,207 $ 36,902 45,406 louisiana ... 55,332 63,786 60,701 8,565 New Mexico. 11 ,090 36,188 41,919 Oklahoma .. 44,783 52,771 66,975 55,022 Texas .. .... 177,101 194,061 243,840 219,843 $ 212,744 2.47,989 1,338,438 248,603 272,359 128,175 457,915 1,380,223 $332,782 $435,996 $414,387 $2,292,164 $2,487,275 Tota l..... $289,991 117,979 375,014 SOURCE; United Slates Department of Agriculture. to the United States Department of Agriculture. Receipts from crops were 12 percent smaller than a year earlier, and those from livestock were 3 percent less. In the Nation, cash receipts from farm marketings during the first 10 months of 1955 were about 3 percent below those in the same period a year ago. FARM COMMODITY PRICES Top Prices Paid in Local Southwest Markets 11 Demand deposits of District weekly reporting member banks diminisbed $73,094,000 during the 4-week period, mainly because United States Government balances in the amount of $55,201,000 were withdrawn. The other principal declining deposit accounts included local government balances and bank drafts, which decreased $16.348,000 and 5.37,064,000, respectively. The accounts of individuals and business firms grew $21,269,000. During the 4 weeks, time deposits rose $18,696,000 and were $142,829,000 higher than on the corresp on ding date in 1954. Total deposits showed a monthly decline of $54,398,000 but a year-to·year increase of $46,943,000. The banks were using $34,950,000 of borrowed funds on December l4., in contrast to $5,500,000 on November 16. The data on all District member banks disclose a monthly increase of $104,743,000 in gross demand deposits in November. At reserve city banks, gross demand deposits declined nominally from the October level and were $63,591,000 below the November 1954 total. The District country banks recorded an increase of $107,725,000 in gross demand deposits between October and November, but the November Comparable Comparab le week, Week ended Commodity and market COTTON, Middling 15 / 16-inch, Dallas .... WHEAT, No.1 hard, Fort Worth .••..•..• OATS, No.2 white, Fort Worth .••.••••.• CORN, No.2 yellow, Fort Worth .•..•.... SORGHUMS, No.2 yellow, Fort Worth .•.• HOGS, Choice. Fort Worth . .. .....•••... SLAUGHTER STEERS, Choice. Fort Worth •.. SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice. Fort Worth .• STOCKER STEERS. Choice, Fort Worth ....• BROILERS1 south Texas ...... ... ......... Unit 018(.20, 1955 lb. bu. bu. bu. cwt. cwl. cwl. cwl. cwl. lb. $ .3350 2.44 .90 1.62Yl 2.24 12.00 21.00 19.00 19.00 .20 pre ...lous month .3405 2.39'4 .88 1.52 2.12 13.25 21.00 19 .00 19.00 .24 $ week, previous year $ .3380 2.70~ CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN lEADING CITIES Eleventh Federel Reserve District 1.04 '4 (In thousands of dollors) 1.87Y2 2.75 19.00 25.00 20.00 21.00 .20 On December 14 the net earning assets of District weekly reporting member banks totaled $3,845,691,· 000, reflecting a decrease of $41,. 327,000 since November 16, but gross loans were up $25,769,000. All of lhe loan accounts were higher, with loans to banks showing the largest monthto·month gain of $10,506,000. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural credits registered an increase of $6,424,000. The reporting banks lent an additional $1,316,000 for real estate and $5,693,000 to consumers and others included in the "all other loans" category. Brokers' loans and other credits for purchasing securities rose $957, 000 and $873,000, respectively. Each of the investment classifications was below its Novem· ber 16 level. The banks decreased their Treasury bill and certificate holdings very sbarply, the combined reduction being $41,429,000. In view of their current relatively low level, these assets probably will continue to show rather prominent month·to-month variations compared with total holdings, depending upon the banks' reserve positions and the demands for credit. The weekly reporting banks dimin· ished their stock of Treasury notes by $13,984,000 and United States Government bonds by $5,791,000. Other securities declined $5,461,000. Item Dec. 14, 1955 Dec. 15, 1954 Nov. 16, 1955 ASSETS Commercia l, industrial, and agricultural loans •• • $1,588,705 $1,439,680 $1,582,281 16,936 15,817 15,979 Loans 10 brokers and dealers in securities . ....• Olher loans for purchasing or carrying securities. 117,533 102,689 116,660 210,964 166,844 209,648 Real·estate loons ...... ...... .. ........... . 14,065 12,429 3,559 loans to banks .... . .... ... . ............ ..• 534,219 416,154 528,526 All other loans .. . ..... . ....... . ... .. . • . • •• Gross loons •••.•••••••••••••••••••••••• Less reserns and unallocated charge·off, .. 2,482,422 25,568 2,153,613 18,040 2,456,653 25,137 141,460 245,518 900,491 227,774 64,192 255,750 828,723 246,505 1,455,502 435,018 455,687 1,761 46,037 571,931 142,332 --2,135,573 2,431,516 -129,088 -- -60,332 Net loans . .... .•. . ....•...... . .....•... 2,456,854 U. S. Trea sury bills ..•• ..... . .......• . .... .. U. S. Trea sury certificates of indebtedness ..•. .• U. S. Trea sury notes ...... . ....... .. ....• • . • U. S. Government bonds (inc. gtd. obligationl).•• Other securities .. ..................•....•• 42,601 40,494 241,766 822,932 241,044 Total inveitmenfl . ..•.••.•..........•.... Cash items in proceu of collection . . •....••.. . Balances with banks in the United States ... .•.. Balances with banks in foreign countries ..•.. . . Currency and coin ........................• Reserves with federal Reserve Bank .••• ...• ..• Other auets .••. ....................... ... 1,388,837 431,983 475,161 2,128 52,554 566,276 144,733 1,644,331 364,844487,720 2,174 48,463 613,390 120,506 TOTAL ASSETS •••.•••••.••••••.•..••• 5,518,526 5,417.001 -5,539 784 LlA81L1TIES AND CAPITAL Demand deposits Individuals, partnerships, and corporations.... United States Government • ..............• States and political subdivisions ..•....•...• Bonks in the United States ..••.. .... ..•.... Banks In foreign countries .. ..... ... ... .•. . Certitled and officers' checks, etc....•. ..•.. 2,862,338 49.936 186,590 955,522 16,567 67,275 2,826,799 125,903 178,885 1,021,307 14,395 66,825 2,841,069 105, 137 202,938 939,086 18,753 104.339 Total demand deposits .•.. . ....... ....• 4,138,228 4,234,114 4,211,322 Time deposits Individuals, partnerships, and corporations .•.• United States Government . ..............• POltal savings ...•............ ....•. •••• Stotes ond politica l subdlvl'slons ... . ...•.•.• Banks in the U. S. and foreign countries • . .•• . 710,922 11,874 452 142,449 2,025 612,234 13,369 451 97,861 978 701,972 11,874 452 132,703 2,025 1 Totol time deposits .. ..... . ........... . 867,722 724,893 849,026 Total deposits . .. •......... ... ..•. . . Bills paYable, rediscounts, etc ...•... .. . .. .• . • All other liabilities ..............•..•....... Toiol ct:lpilt:ll t:lccounfs .....••.••.•.......... 5,005,950 34,950 70,312 407,314 4,959,007 29,500 70,587 357,907 5,060,348 5,500 66,674 407,262 TOTAL liABIlITIES AND CAPiTAL •.• . OW" 5,518,526 -5,417,001 5,539,784 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 12 BANK DEBITS, END·OF·MONTH DEPOSITS AND ANNUAL RATE OF TURNOVER OF DEPOSITS CONDITION STATISTICS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Amounts in thousands of dollorsT (In millions of dollars) hem Nov. 30, 1955 Nov. 2.4, 1954 Oct. 26, 1955 $3,892 2,345 570 969 148 1,009 2 $3,351 2,649 519 1,050 132 1,137 2 352 170 $3,782 2,373 572 968 142 950 2 '02 195 DEBITSI ASSETS lOClns and dlscounh ••••••••••••••••••••.•••••• United Stale, Gonmment obligations •••••••••••. Other securities •••••• • • • ••••••••• •• • • ••• • •••• Reserv •• with Federal Reserve Bonk •••••••••••••• Cash in vault e •••••• • •••• • ••• •• •••••••••• • ••• Bala",., with banks In the Un1t.d Slat.s •...•••... Balance. with banks in foreign countries' ••••••• •• Cash items in prOC8U of collection ••••••••••••••• Other oneue •••.•.•.•.••••..•.....••••••.... AU 199 TOTAL ASSETS- ••• • • • ••••• •• ••• •• •• •• •••• • 9,362 1,002 6,381 1,287 1,121 6,394 1,1 23 1,00 1 6,315 1,267 Total deposits •• •••••••.•••• •• ••••• ••••• • • • Borrowlngs e ••••••••• •••••••••••.•••••• •• •• •• Other lIabllltiese ••••• •••••• • •••••••• • • ••• ••• • Total capitol accounts- • •••••••• •••. • •••••• •••• 8,670 96 82 700 8,638 20 79 625 8,583 34 TOTAL LlABILInES AND CAPITAL-... .. ....... 9,548 9,362 9,386 _ Are a ARIZONA Tucson •••••. ••••..•• LOUISIANA Monroe ••••••••••••• Shreveport ••• ••••••• NEW MEXICO Roswell ••••••••••••• TEXAS L1A81L1TIES ANO CAPITAL Demond deposih of banks ••••••••••••••••••••• Other demand deposits •••••• • .••••• •• ••.••••• • Time deposits •••• • •••• •• ••••••••••••• •••••••• 7'- 695 Estlmat.d. total was only slightly above that of a year earlier. The monthly change 111 time deposits at all member banks m November was an increase of $14,456,000. The November records of reporting banks in 24 District cities indicate virtually no change in total debits to deposit accounts from the preceding month but a 12.percent increase from a year earlier. Individual cities, as usual, exhibited variations around the District trend, The range of monthly fluctuations for each city is affected by economic conditions and money flows peculiar to the reporting cen ter; hence, the District total is probably a more reliable guide in evaluating monthly changes in deposit activity. For the 24 centers, the rate of deposit turnover in November was 19.1, compared with 19.2 in October and 17.9 in November 1954. In the 4 weeks ended December 14, member bank reserve balances declined $16,858,000; for the year to date, they had decreased $38,071,000. The transactions having the largest quantitative influence in the period arose from interdistrict money flows, which resulted in a net movement of $122,737,000 of funds away from the District, and Treasury operations, which increased member bank reserve accounts by $87,932,000. Changes in local Federal Reserve creditnamely, float and member bank borrowing- added $16,· 922,000 to reserve accounts. These accounts were expanded further by the net return of currency amounting to $1,118,000, DEPOSITS' Percentage change from Abilene ............ . Amarillo ••• ••••••••• Austin ••••••••• ••• • • Beaumont ••••.•••••• Corpus Christi ••••.•.• Corsicana • •• ••••• • • • Dallas •• • •..•••• .•• • EI Paso • ••• • ••••• •. • Fort Worth • •• •• .. •. . Galveston ••••.••••• • Houston ••••• ••••• •• Laredo ••••••.•.•••• Lubbock •••••••••••• Pori Arthur •••••••••. San Angelo •• • •.••• • San Antonia ••.••••.. Texarkana ' •••••• •.• Tyler .............. . Waco • • •• • ••••• •••• Wichita Falls ••..•••• November 1955 137,823 Annual rate of turnover Nov. Oct. 1954 1955 18 -1 Nov. 30, 1955 $ 99,212 17.0 16.1 17.4 15.6 15.0 13.2 14.4 16.2 15.5 13.2 11.9 12.7 62,384 236,011 26 12 0 -3 48,512 188,988 30,431 • 8 27,798 73,375 159,015 129,841 131,648 160,174 15,111 2,055,169 241,829 599,466 78,019 1,981,107 20,341 159,510 53,543 43,668 446,277 19,394 69,881 86,257 101,524 TOlol-24 cities ••••••• • $7,091,798 9 7 13 -2 15 - 7 7 6 I -3 24 -12 11 -2 9 7 15 0 2 -1 7 -1 14 -3 14 9 -1 22 -1 -1 10 14 12 -1 _1 1 6 -6 15 8 12 o Nov. Nov. Oct. 1955 1954 1955 68,417 13.8 14.3 13.9 108,975 17..4 15.S 17.9 116,357 13..4 12.0 14.3 106,129 15.1 14.5 14.9 111,314 17.4 15.6 18.2 22,413 8.2 6.8 9.4 993,860 24.7 23..4 '24.8 130,963 22.3 '21.0 21.0 374,060 19.4 17.9 19.9 71,618 13.0 13.1 13.2 1,196,594 19.7 18.2 19.9 19,386 12.6 12.1 12.7 94,431 20.6 21.4 17.6 46,157 14.0 14.3 14.2 45,900 11.4 10.3 11.6 345,059 15.5 15.0 15.6 17,79113.111.913.3 57,224 14.8 13.3 14.8 68,972 14.8 1.4.4 15.8 105,371 11.6 10.3 10.8 $4,465,501 - 19.1 17.9 19.2 1 Debits to demand deposit accounts of Individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of slates and poUtical subdivisions. I Demond deposit accounts of Individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions. • These flgures include only one bank In Texarkana, Texa s. Total debits for all banks in Texarkana, Texas·Arkansas, including two banks located In the Eighth District, amounted to $41,990,000 for the month of November 1955. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas owned $1,009,075,000 in earning assets on December 14, representing a growth of about 40,000,000 since November 16. The volume of memo ber bank discounts, which fluctuated within wide limits in the 4 weeks, expanded to $30,415,000, reflecting a $22,719,000 increase. Federal Reserve notes of this bank in actual circulation rose $5,132,000. The United States Treasury refinanced $12,213,000,000 of the Federal debt, consisting of the 114 -percent certificate and 1% ·percent note maturing December 15. These securities were replaced by a 2%'percent certificate maturing Decem· ber 1, 1956, and a 2% -percent note expiring June 15, 1958. Maturing securities amounting to $847,438,000 were reo CHANGES IN FACTORS AFFECTING MEMBER BANK RESERVE BALANCES Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousands of dollau) GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS CHANGEI Eleventh Federal Reserve Oistrid 4 weeks ended Dec. 14, 1955 (AVerages of daily figures. In thousands of dollars) COMBINED TOTAL Dole Gross demand Time RESERVE CITY 8ANKS Gross demand Time COUNTRY BANKS Grass dem and Time Nov. 1953., •• $6,948,849 $ 936,1 75 $3,369,875 $516,162 $3,578,974 $420,013 Nov. 1954 •••• 7,46.4,379 1,126,793 3,650,354 635,036 3,814,025 491,757 July 1955 •• •• 7,218,169 1,273,'23 3,545,239 753,896 3,672,930 519,527 Aug. 1955 • • .• 7,144 ,992 1,276,939 3,'80,158 755,28' 3,664,834 521,655 Sept. 1955 .... 7,195,579 1,27 1,089 3,517,182 748,666 3,678,397 52'2,.423 Oct. 1955 . ... 7,304,808 1,260,749 3,589,745 736,233 3,715,063 524,516 Nov. 1955 .. .. 7,409,551 1,275,205 3,586,763 7'7,023 3,822,788 528,182 FACTORS Federal Re$er~e credit-local ............... . .. . Interdistrict commercial and flnancial transactions ••• Treasury operations ••.•....•••••••••.•.•.•.•.• Currency transactions ......................... . Other deposIts at Federal Reserve Bonk •••.•••••• Other Federal Reserve accounts •• ...•• •• ••.. ..•• RESERVE BALANCES November 16, 1955. ......... . . . December 1.4, 1955............. $985,298 $968,440 lSign of change indicates effect on reserve ba lances. +5 16,922 - 122,737 87,932 1,118 203 110 Dec. 29, 195.4_ Dec. 14, 1955 +$ 5,650 597,092 + + + - -$ 16,858 -$ 38,071 + 526,881 + 15,183 629 + 11,936 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 13 CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS CRUDe OIL, DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION lin thousands of dollorsl lin thousands of barrels} Item Dec. 14, Dec. 15, 1955 1954 Tota l gold ce rtiAcate reserves ............ . . . $ 717.402 Discounts for member bonh . . . ....... .. ... . 30,415 Other discoun ts and advances . ... ... . .. . . . . o U. S. Government securities ..•.. ... . ........ 978,660 Tofa l earning a uets ............. . ........ . Member bank reserv e de posits ...... ... . .. ,. Federal Reserve notes in actuol circulation •••.• 1,009.075 968."0 727,096 $ 80 •• 153 U.OOO 8.115 977.963 1.000.078 1,002,441 751.315 Nov, 16, 1955 $781.301 7.696 o 961.827 969.523 985.298 721.964 Change from The Treasury subsequently borrowed about $1,500,000,000 in new money through the issuance of a 99-day Tax Anticipation bill dated December 15. This issue was offered with two features designed to increase its attractiveness: Qualified depositary banks were permitted to credit up to 60 percent of their purchases to the Tax and Loan Account; and these securities can be offered for redemption at par on March 15 (8 days prior to maturity) in payment for taxes. In the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, subscribers applied for $160,727,000 of these bills and were awarded $79,067,000. For the country as a whole, the corresponding figures were $4.,129,518,000 and $1,500,689,000. The average issuing rate was 2.465 percent. NEW PAR BANK The Idalou State Bank, Idalou, Texas , an insured, nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Head Office 0/ the Federal Reserve Bank of DaUas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, November 28,1955. The officers are: C. L. Haley, President, and Jerry Denny, Cashier. The outstanding developments in the petroleum industry during late November and early December were the sharply rising demand for heating oil, resulting from markedly colder weather throughout most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States, and the continuing demand for residual fuel oiL In the 5 weeks ended December 16, the demand for distillate fuel oil was 15 percent greater than on the comparable date a year earlier_ Kerosene demand was also strong in early December. Total demand for the four major refined products was 18 percent above that in the previous 5-week period and was 9 percent more than in the same period of ~ 1954. As a consequence of this sharp increase in demand, crude slocks continued to decline and on December 10 were 2 percent lower than in November and 4 percent lower than in November 19542 1955 1 1954 3.025.7 2.698.0 580.0 1.037.4 213.0 89.9 777.7 219.2 108.5 3.3 19.9 6.345.6 3.155.8 2.815.0 583.9 1.101_4 212.9 90.2 826.6 225.0 115.8 3.575.6 6,731.4 199.9 184.5 12.5 102.4 6.3 .3 63.0 7.7 7.7 285.0 484.9 November Area 1955 1 ElEVENTH DiSTRiCT ••••• _._ Texas .................. Gulf COO It • •••••••••.• West Teltos ........... Ea st Texas (proper) •.•.. Panhandle ••••.•.•.•.• 3.225.6 2.882.5 592 .5 1.139.8 219.3 90.2 840.7 226.9 116.2 3.604.9 6/830.5 Rest of Stat••• . . . •••.• Southeasfern New Mexico .• deemed for cash; subscriptions of $9,082,247,000 were made for the new certificate; and an exchange of $2,283,165,000 for the 1958 note also was effected. In the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, $57,080,000 of the new certificate and S75,006,000 of the note were taken. October November North.rn LouisianQ .......• OUTSIDE ELEVENTH DISTRICT. UNITED STATES •• ••••••• _._ SOURCES: Oaober 1955 69.8 67.5 8.6 38.4 M 0 14.1 1.9 .4 29.3 99.1 I Estimated from American Petrol.um Institute weekly reports. : United States Bureau of Mines. December a year earlier. Stocks of major refined products on December 16 were 5 percent below the November level but 1 percent above those in December 1954_ In a year-to-year comparison, gasoline stocks were up 6 percent and distillate fuel oil stocks were up 7 percent, while kerosene and residual fuel oil stocks were down 6 percent and 22 percent, respectively_ Crude oil production in the first 16 days of December averaged 3,276,000 barrels per day, or 50,000 barrels above November and 232,000 barrels above December a year earlier_ In the Nation, crude oil production averaged 6,922,000 barrels per day, or 1 pcrcent above November production and 8 percent over production in December 1954_ Texas allowables for January, at 3,275,891 barrels daily, remain unchanged from the mid-December level and are 2 percent higher than a year earlier. The number of producing days is unchanged at 17, indicating a slight rise in total production for January as new wells are brought in. Louisiana allowables also are expected to remain unchanged between December and January. Refinery activity in the District was down slightly in the first 16 days of December but, at 2,242,000 barrels per day, was 97,000 barrels---or 5 percent- above the level of December 1954. Refinery runs in the Nation followed a similar pattern, with a slight decline in early December from the November level. At 7,670,000 barrels per day, national runs were 6 percent above the average in December 1954. Imports in the 5 weeks ended December 16 reached 1,336,000 barrels per day, or 193,000 barrels above the average for the previous 5 weeks and 166,000 barrels above the average in December 1954. Most of the month-to-month increase came from larger imports of refined products, which rose 35 percent; crude oil imports were up 9 percent. During November, total nonagricultural employment in the five states lying wholly or partly within the District established an all-time record for the third successive month. November employment of 3,966,800 was nearly 20,000 above the October level and almost 115,000 more than in MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 14 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BUILDING PERMITS Five Southwestern Stalesl 11 months 1955 Pe rcentage change in va luation from Percent change Number of persons Type of employment November 1955. November 1954r Nay. 1955 from October 1955 Nay. 1954 November 1955 Oct. 1955 Number Areo Total nonagricultural woge and salary workers .• 3,966,800 Manufacturing •..••••• .•• 736,600 Non~~nufacturing ••••••• • 3,230,200 Mining • ••.. • .•. •• . ••• 245,1 00 269,800 Construction . . . .......• Transportation and public: utilities ........•••.• 399,000 Trade ............ ..•• 1.01.4.700 164,200 finance ..........•..•• 458,300 Service .........•.••.. Government .....• .. ..• 669,100 3,851,900 712,500 3,139,400 233,500 269,700 390,600 996,000 156,200 3,947,200 731,300 3,215,900 242,700 275,700 397,400 445,500 1,0 13,200 163.700 458,300 647,900 664,900 3.0 3.4 2.9 5.0 0 .5 .7 .4 1.0 -2.1 2.2 2.9 5.1 2.9 3.3 .4 1.1 .3 0 .6 1 Arh:ono, louisiana, New Mexico, Okla homa, and Teaos. • -Estimated. t-Revlsed. SOURCES, LOUISIANA Shreveport .•.. Abilene ..•• .. . Amarillo •••••• Austin . . ... . . . Beaumont •••• • Corpus Christl.. Dallas ...... . . EI Paso •...•.. Fort Worth .••. Galveston •••• • Houston ••••• • Port Arthur • • •• Son Antonio •.• Waco ••...... Wichita Foils . • Nov. Oct. 1954 1955 Number -7 5,330 33,887,072 30 58 -64-39 -26 -59 -15 _2 1 1 -33 -33 27 _52 20 129 -21 5 -50 -16 _25 1,799 2,777 3,327 18,513,503 20,064,177 38,844,323 8,211,141 27,382,956 163, 117,446 32,274,519 54,178,066 ",820,142 131,477,852 26,038,467 5,053,330 53,950,401 38 6 -7 -4 -14 18 20 28 -33 -14 7 161 226 221 260 330 1,869 339 675 92 763 175 141 1,251 231 150 1,413,775 1,135,25.4 2,38-',125 438,707 1,188,787 10,683,173 2,"20,0"7 3,025,679 406,112 8,231,0,14 1,067,533 336,055 ".195,450 1,184,957 1,259,417 -22 -15 -51 54 -19 - 57 -47 -4 7 23 3,413 ",661 24,977 ",760 8,573 1,157 11,.435 3,098 1,7.45 18,786 3,238 1,584 10101-16 cilles .. 7,428 $41,596,230 -27 -24 100,660 November 1954. The sharpest seasonal gain occurred in trade employment, which was stimulated by the pre·Christmas seaSOD. Significant increases also occurred in mining and government employment. Construction employment showed a sharp seasonal decline, Manufacturing employment during November increased to 736,600; most of the gain occurred in transportation equipment manufacturing, as aircraft factories expanded employment. Increases also occurred in the maj or manu· facturing groups-food processing and textile mill products. Unemployment during November remained near the sea· sonal low reached in October. In Texas, the only District state for which data are available, unemployment declined from 98,300 in October to 97,400 in November, the lowest level for that month since 1952. Construction contracts awarded in the D;strict during November were moderately above those in the preceding month and in November 1954. The value of awards during the month totaled $134,,931,000, which is 9 percent above October and 6 percent above the level of a year ago. Sharp, offsetting changes for the major types of construction underlay the upward movement in the total value of awards, Resi- Valua tion 544 $ 2,226,11 5 -5 TEXAS lubbock .. .. . . ~~dt:r:il~~!~:n~:ngke:,iD~llas. Valuation Pe rcentage change in yaluation from 11 months 195" H 12,768,099 3 2 35 $644,982,861 5 14,401,367 dential awards continued to decline and were down 20 percent from October and 43 percent from a year earlier. Awards for "all other" construction increased 27 percent from the previous month and were up 62 percent from November 1954. Tn the Nation, the value of construction contract awards during November was 4 percent less than in October but 20 percent above a year ago. Residential awards declined 7 percent from October but were 2 percent more than a year earlier. "All other" awards decreased 1 percent but were up 36 percent from November 1954, Cumulative construction awards between January 1 and November 30, 1955, were 21 percent higher in the District and 22 percent higher for the Nation than in the comparable period a year earlier. Residential awards showed a 4-percent increase in the District and a 22.percent increase in the Nation. However, "all other" awards in this same period were 37 percent bigher in the District, compared with a 21-percent gain in the Nation. DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON IBales) VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED Areo (In thou la nds of dollars) October 1955 1 October 1954 August-October September 1955 1 This season last sealOfl CONSUMPTION January-November Area ond type November November October 1955p 1954 1955 ElEVENTH DISTRICT•• $ 134,9 31 $ 127,115 $ 123,602 Residential. . . . • . . 38.382 67,417 47,768 AU ather...... . .. 96,5"9 59,698 75,834 UNITED STATES' .• •• 1,796,787 1,498,850 1,862,692 Residential.. ..... 725,712 708,691 782,791 All oth.r ......... 1,071,075 790,159 1,079,901 1 37 states east of Ihe Rocky Mountains. p-Pr.Umlnory. SOURCE, F. W. Dodge Corporation. 1955p 1954 $ 1,590,714 $ 1,312,264 666,306 638,277 924,408 21,843,523 673,987 17,941,430 9.493,053 7,756.71.4 12,350,470 10,184,716 Total 11,504 12,966 35,679 Teaa s mills . ..•...... 11.519 36,37 3 874,837 2,329,120 2,192,157 737,056 706,936 U. S. mills.. .... . ..... Doily average 519 549 575 576 560 TUa, mill .. . ........ 34,994 35,833 36,853 35,347 33,725 U. S. mills. •.•........ STOCKS, U.S.-End of period Consuming estobllshments. 1,362,267 1,392,963 1,209,252 Public storoge and compresses • . ........ 14,543,307 12,845,924 11,796,569 Four weeks ended October 29. 2 Five weeks end.d October 1. SOURCE, United Stotes Bureau of the Census. 1