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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW of the =- Volume 25, No. 11 FEDERAL RES E R VE BANK of Dallas This COpy is released for pub· lication in morning papers-- Dallas, Texas, January 1, 1941 = , The output of manufactures in the Eleventh District dur- D ec. 30 substantial decline in business. Sales of tobacco and drugs at Ing November continued at the advanced level attained in wholesale closely approximated those in November last year. ?ther recent months, and consumer buying showed a marked Stocks of merchandise at reporting firms were lowered 2 per Increase, following a substantial decline in October. Employ- cent in Novembel', but the total on hand at the close of the ment increased further and payrolls remained virtually un- month in a majority of lines continued well above that of a changed from the ten-year high recorded in October. Con- year ago. The rate of collections on accounts receivable averSUmer purchases at department stores during November ex- aged 75 per cent in November, which is about the same as ceeded those a year ago by about 13 per cent. Distribution of that in the preceding month but moderately lower than in merchandise through wholesale channels evidenced the usual November, 1939. seasonal contraction from October to November, but conAccording to the Bureau of Business Research of the Unitinued much greater than in November, 1939. Activity in versity of Texas, the number of workers employed in manuth~ building and allied industries, including lumber, cement, facturing and extractive industries and at trade and service ~rlck and tile, and structural steel, was well sustained, exceed- establishments in Texas, which, on a seasonally adjusted basis, Ing that of a year ago by a substantial margin. The value of had risen in September and October to a point above that for construction contracts awarded in November was nearly 80 any month since the latter part of 1937, increased moderately p,er cent greater than in November, 1939. Petroleum produc- further in November, and payrolls remained at about the Octotion and refinery operations showed little change over the ber level, which was the highest iri more than ten years. In month, but the rate of drilling operations increased moder- comparison with November, 1939, employment and payrolls ately. Consumption of cotton at Texas textile mills registered were up 3 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively. Among india new high for recent years, the November consumption ex- vidual manufacturing lines, substantial increases over a year ceeding the average amount utilized during the first quarter of ago in both the number of workers employed and the amount the current season by 31 per cent. Loans at weekly reporting of payrolls were recorded at cotton textile mills and at those member banks continued to advance sharply, the total out- establishments producing foods, lumber, stone and clay, and Standing on December 11 exceeding that of a year ago by structural iron and steel products. According to Dun & Bradstreet, liabilities of commercial ~23,100,000. The outlook for the agricultural and livestock failures in this district showed a further sharp increase in IndUstries has been improved by widespread rains. November, reflecting chiefly the failure of one large industrial BUSINESS Department store trade in the Eleventh District, which had concern. The number of bankruptcies, on the other hand, f allen off sharply in October, showed a marked expansion in declined 21 per cent from October to November. There were ~Ovember. Daily average sales showed a counter-to-seasonal 26 insolvencies during the latter month, with an aggregate Increase of 15 per cent from October to November, and as a indebtedness of $3,145,000. AGRICULTURE Consequence this bank's seasonally adjusted index rose 18 points Weather conditions had varying effects upon conditions in to, 117 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, which compares With 115 per cent during the third quarter of this year, and the agricultural and livestock industries in this district during ~04 per cent in November, 1939. The dollar value of sales November. Washing rains and floods in the central and eastern In November this year exceeded that in the corresponding portions of the district and a heavy ice coating in the northern mOnth of 1939 by 13 per cent. Reports indicate that the half of the Texas Panhandle caused considerable damage to Strong demand for merchandise during November was general property and growing crops as well as some loss of livestock. OVer the district, with all reporting stores participating in the In addition, unseasonably cold weather in the northern part of eXpansion over a year ago. Cumulative sales during the eleven the commercial truck growing area of south Texas reduced the mhonths ended November 30 were 5 per cent greater than in prospective yield of some vegetable crops in that area. Despite t at period of 1939. During the first half of December con- these unfavorable developments, the general outlook for the sUmer buying at weekly reporting firms averaged about 2 per agricultural and livestock industries was greatly improved by the betterment in moisture supplies. Rainfall during Novemcent smaller than in the corresponding period of 1939. h Inventories of merchandise at reporting department stores ber, which was general over the district, supplied a good subs OWed little net change in November, and at the month-end DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS the value of stocks on hand was 3 per cent smaller than a year ElEVENTH rEOERAI.. AE.S£RVE DISTRICT ptA tt NT ~go. The rate of collections on regular accounts outstanding ~ CLHT 130 ~ncreased seasonally in November and exceeded that in Novem- '20 120 er last year by 6 per cent. N ,~ - - ltOEXCS lJusTtD I"OR suLNAL. vJIATIO '0 , '\.ggregate sales of merchandise at reporting wholesale firms 110 ~ _'10"'. ,... " _"",,, '00 ,J ~~\,fy In eight lines of trade in this district showed the usual sea- '00 I,) ~ ~onal Contraction from October to November; nevertheless, 00 00 SALES cmand for goods by retailers continued strong, reflecting in 60 ~.,-, ~" -~ ~ 60 ~rt numerous replacement orders, and sales exceeded those in V '\" " Y' ~ • I, ovember, 1939, by about 10 per cent. The latter figure com- 70 "~)J\ STOCKS 1\ '-"\_ ~_,::..,,,f,' ....,... '!r..l\V,~ . P~res with an average gain over a year ago of 6 per cent in 60 60 "I '\ ... ,..-',., i~ es during the first eleven months of the year. In individual !O \ v 1"".", alnes of trade, pronounced increases in sales over those of a year 40 l'o Were recorded in five of the eight lines, with the distribu- 40 IOn of surgical equipment being the only line to evidence a 30 _ .... ' f'~N .. _+, ., - V1II NY ' "- ,,, ... . .... Vi'v .... This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 soil season, replenished stock water, and placed the soil in good condition for plowing and seeding operations. Although the Texas wheat crop on December 1 was spotted and in various stages of development, due chiefly to delayed planting and inadequate rainfall, prospects are now favorable for rapid grow th. The Department of Agriculture reports that moistur~ conditions in the Texas wheat belt are now the best in recent years. R eflecting the effects of the adverse weather prevailing in November, the quality of cotton that remained to be gathered in this district was damaged considerably, and the prospective production was also reduced, with the greatest loss occurring in north and northwest Texas. The final production estimate for the State was lowered 95,000 bales to a total of 3,285,000 bales, which compares with a harvest of 2,846,000 bales in 1939. The average per acre yield of cotton in Texas was placed at 185 pounds, which is sharply higher than the 1939 and tenyear average yields. The prospective production of cotton in Oklahoma was lowered 20,000 bales in November, but the December forecast of 805,000 bales is nearly as high as the ten-year average production. In contrast with the declines in Texas and Oklahoma, the production forecast fo r New Mexico was raised to 123,000 bales, which is one-fifth higher than the 1939 harvest. The final estimate of cotton production in the United States during 1940 was placed at 12,686,000 bales, representing an average yield of 252 pounds per acre on the 25,073 ,000 acres harvested. The totals for production and per acre yield average about 7 per cent higher than in 1939. Although frosts and cold weather resulted in a considerable loss of tender, f all maturing vegetables in portions of the truck growing area of south Texas during November, the outlook for the production of winter vegetable crops in this area is still favorable. The acreages planted to several crops are somewhat larger than a year ago, and on December 1 the condition of cabbage, carrots, Bermuda onions, and spinach was considerably higher than on the corresponding date a year earlier. The average condition of livestock ranges in this district, which ordinarily declines in November, showed little change during that month of 1940 and continued much higher than a year ago. In the eastern portion of the district excessive rain fall caused some deterioration of ranges by grass-rot, but elsewhere ranges held up well or improved. Furthermore, the outWHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS ~---Poroontago ohango in: ,Ratio Nov. colleotions Stocks" to acoounts ontstandNet sales , . - - - - - -- - -.....v , ing November I Jan. 1 to Nov., 1940 (rom ,~----_____ , Nov. , 1940 from Nov., Oot., Nov. 30, 1040 Nov., Oot. , In6talRetail trade: 1980 1940 from 1930 1980 1040 Rogular mont Department storcs: 44. 5 .8 14 .4 - 3.4 + 4.9 Totnlllth Dist .. +12 .8 + 6. 7 .2 46.2 16.3 Dallas .. . .. .. ... +11 . 1 + 3.4 + 4.8 + .5 38 .7 10 .4 - 6.5 + 2.3 Fort Worth ...... 7.5 .9 + 3. 8 42 .8 - 3 .9 - 2.9 Houston .. .. ..... + 10. 1 +17 .5 + 3.1 47 .2 12 . 1 +12 .0 SnnAntonio . .... +26.8 + 9.0 + .2 + .4 17.9 44.7 3.0 - 9.7 Other oities .... .. +11 .7 + 5 .0 + 2. 0 Independont stores:t Anlona .. ... .... +10 .0 + 6.0 New Mexioo .. ... 6.0 .. .... + 2 .0 Oklahoma .. .. . .. +12. 0 + 3.0 + 3.0 Texas ..... .. . .. . +11.0 + 2.0 6.0 Wholesalo trade:t Maohincry, eqp't & suppli es (except eleotric.I) ...... . +10.6 - 9.1 + 9. 5 - 0. 6 + .8 47 .1 ..... + 2.6 - 7.7 Automotive supl's . +54 .4 +15 .2 + 7:1 + 6. 5 + .3 68.8 Drugs (inoI.IiQu'rs) - 1.3 - . 7 E1eotrical supplies . + 28 .1 0'. 47 ++ 3 . 3 _ 2.0 ':":" 1' .'8' 72.3 77.8 Grooeries ......... + 8.0 6 8 + 5.8 + 7.0 - 4.3 77. 8 Hardware .... .... +17 .6 - 13. 8 Surgioal eQP't .. ... -29. 9 - 16 .9 +11 .6 No ohg. 57 .3 .4 +18. 0 - .7 .......... .. 88. 5 Tobaooo& prod's .. "Stooks at olose of month. fCompiled by Unitod Statcs Buroau of Census. - + + + + = INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOOKS (1923-25 average = 100) With BCasonal adjustment Without seasonal adjustmont Total Eleventh Dist .. DaUas . .. . .... .. .... Fort Worth .. .. .... .. Houston.. .. .. .. .. .. San Antonio .... ... .. Sales-Nov. 1940 1939 117 .3 104.4 120.5 108.5 106 .7 98. 9 119 .5 107. 1 109 .9 85 .0 Stocks-Nov. 1940 1989 69. 1 71. 6 75 .0 74.1 66. 0 70.6 50 .3 53.1 58. 8 58 .6 Sales-Nov. 1940 1939 131.4 116.9 142.2 128. 0 128. 0 118. 7 139. 8 125. 3 126.4 97 .7 Stooks-Nov. 1940 1939 77. 4 80.2 81.7 80.8 74 .6 79.8 57 .8 61.1 65 .3 65 .0 look for winter grazing on range weeds and grasses over most of the district was much improved by the betterment in moisture conditions, and prospects are now favorable for widespread grazing on small grain fields in north and northwest Texas by early January. Although some losses of cattle occurred during November as a result of the cold weather and floods, the number was comparatively small, and, on the whole, livestock continued in good condition. The average weight of animals on December 1 was considerably higher than that of a year ago and the ten-year average for that date. According to the Department of Agriculture, a material increase in lamb feeding is expected in Texas during the current season, reflecting the favorable range conditions existing in the sheep-groWing areas. Cash income of farmers in this district during the third quarter of 1940 was sharply lower than in the corresponding period of 1939, reflecting a smaller amoun t of Government benefit payments and smaller marketings of cotton, occasioned by the lateness of the 1940 crop. Income from the sale of livestock and livestock products during the three-month period continued at about the same rate as that during the first half of the year, which was 2 per cent higher than in 1939. Reflecting chiefly heavy marketings of the 1940 cotton crop, total farm income during October showed a marked increase, eXceeding that of a year ago by 28 per cent. This expansion more than offset decreases from a year ago that had been recorded in preceding months, with the result that total income during the first ten months of 1940 was about 1 per cent higher than in the corresponding period of 1939. FINANCE The demand for funds to finance commerce, industry and agriculture continued unabated during the four weeks ended December 11, and as a consequence, total loans at weekly reporting banks in this district rose further by $13,100,000 to the highest level since April, 1931. The expansion in loans at these banks since the beginning of last August has amounted to $43,700,000 which is the largest gain for any corresponding period for which data are available. Total loans amounted to $308,700,000 on December 11, and of this amount more than two-thirds represented advances for commercial, industrial and agricultural purposes. Reporting banks, however, reduced their investments by $4,200,000 during the four weeks. Total loans and investments at these banks on December 11 CASH FARM INOOME FROM THE SALE OF PRINCIPAl, FARM PRODUCTS AND GOVERNM ENT BENEFIT PAYMENTS (In thouBandBof dollars) ,,---- Soptember, 1940 ---.. Reoeipts from: Govorn- , Total reocip t s ~----____, ment Sept. Sept. Jan. 1 to Sept. 390 Crops Livestock" payments 1040 1939 1940 103 Arizona . ...... 1,656 1,850 80 3,586 3,801 37,477 35,627 Louisiana. . . . . . 5,681 1,890 1,957 0,528 18,287 69,452 74,~~¥ New Moxico.. . 1,409 2,585 84 4,078 6,516 28,045 27, 6 5,510 10,170 340 16,020 20,653 131,065 136'lk Oklahoma. . . .. Toxas... ..... . 37,544 20,150 9,589 67,283 81,904 351,639 ~ Total. .... 51 ,800 36,645 12,050 109,495 131,161 "Inoludes receipts from the ..Ie of Iivestook and livestock produots. SOUROE: United Stat.., Department of Agriculture. 617,678 646,955 LIVESTOOK RECEIPTS (Nnmber) r ---Fort Worth-----v---- San Aatonio----Nov. Nov. Oot. Nov. Nov. Oot. 1940 1939 1940 1940 1939 1940 Oattlo. .. . .. ... ... . . . .. . . 47,103 54,420 58,621 16,066 17,502 16,~~~ Oalves.. .. ...... .... .. .. 42,722 44,937 57,051 25,555 81,892 30, 96 25,209 37,300 13,650 12,549 17,1 3 HogB......... . ... . .. . . . . 35,594 Shoop. .. ...... . ........ 44.654 38,006 63,570 4,446 4,896 11.10 OOMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICES (Dollars per hundredwoight) ,----Fort Wortb-----v---- San Antonio ~~o Bcof BteerB ............. . $10 .50 Stooker Bteers .. ... . .. . .. . 9.m HoiforBand ycarlingB.... . 10 .50 Butcher cows . ..... . . .. . . 6. W Oalves . . .. ... . . . . . .... . . 0.00 Hogs .. .. ..... .. ........ . 6.80 Lambs . . .. . . . . ... • . ..... 9.09 ~39 ~4~ ~~o f939 $ 9. 25 8 .W 10.00 6. M 8.75 6.70 8 .M $10 .75 9. M 11 .00 6.W 8 .75 6.60 8. 25 $ 9. 00 7.W 11 .00 6. U 9.00 6.60 . 8.00 S 8 .00 7.M 9.25 5 .W 8.00 6.40 7.75 0;1940 S 8.~~ 7. 10' 00 6.~ 9 ' 40 ho. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW \\Tere up $8,800,000 from those four weeks earlier, and $20,000,000 as compared with a year ago. The daily average of combined gross demand and time deposits at all member banks in this district has increased by ~153,600,000 since last August, reflecting principally increases In adjusted demand and interbank deposits. Total deposits in ~ovember averaged $1,700,000,000, which was an all-time Igh, exceeding those of a year ago by $131,000,000. Member bank reserves carried with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas continued to rise between the middle of No"ember and the middle of December, though at a more moderate rate than in the preceding sixty days. Nevertheless, reserve balances on December 15 were at a new high level of ~242,800,000. Daily average excess reserves of member banks In this district, which amounted to $'8 6,400,000 during the first half of November, showed little net change during the month ended December 15, since the expansion in total reser"es was counterbalanced by a corresponding increase in required reserves. Participation by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in the ~ystem's investment account declined further by $2,000,000 etween November 15 and December 15, reflecting this bank's pro-rata share of a net liquidation in the System's holdings of ~nited States Government securities. Discounts for member a.nks were virtually liquidated during the month and indus~rtal advances declined $140,000. Federal Reserve notes of this ank in actual circulation, which had shown a net increase in each of the preceding six months, reached an all-time peak of $95,900,000 on December 9. Although a moderate decline occurred in the subsequent week; total circulation on December 15 Was $2,600,000 higher than a month earlier and $12,000,0.00 greater than at the middle of December, 1939. The expanbon in note circulation that has occurred since mid-year has een at a much faster rate than in any of the three preceding Years, which is indicative of the widespread increase in business and industrial activity. On December 11 the United States Treasury invited cash ~ubscriptions to a $500,000,000 issue of National Defense, per cent, Treasury notes dated December 18, 1940, In the leventh District subscriptions amounted to $71,756,000, but allotments against these subscriptions totaled only $9,443,500. INDUSTRY Construction activity in the Eleventh District during No~e,?b.er was featured by marked increases in non-residential dlUI~lng and in public utilities construction. In the non-resientlal field, important gains were recorded in awards for c?mmercial and manufacturing buildings and in the construction of facilities at various army camps. The total value of COntracts awarded for all non-residential building during Nomber was 5 8 per cent greater than in October and nearly t lree times the amount of awards in November, 1939. The lue of utilities construction started in November exceeded ~ at of a year ago by more than three and one-half1 times. de\\T~rds for residential building and public works construction . chned considerably from October to November, but continued in excess of the respective totals for the corresponding onth of 1939. The value of all contracts awarded in Novemth r this year was 78 per cent greater than a year ago. During e past four months there have been wide fluctuations from mOnth to month in the volume of contracts awarded for the ~~"eral classes of construction work, but despite these varia~ons the total value of contracts let in each of those months enas approximately the same, totaling about $22,500,000 otnthly. It is significant, moreover, that the heavy volume h construction work initiated in this district since last June i as nOt been limited to any particular type or class of builds~g, A.lthough publicly-financed building accounted for about per cent of the June-November total, privately-financed r work begun during that period was 13 per cent higher than in the comparable period of 1939. Production and snipments of lumber at pine mills in this district showed a further seasonal decline in November, and the rate of incoming orders also fell off. Nevertheless, operations were maintained at a comparatively high level; during the first week of December production and new orders received expanded substantially. Shipments of lumber have continued in CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK (In thoueande of dollars) Dec. 15, Dec. 15, 1040 1030 Total eaeh reservee. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . $204,542 $260,098 Dieoounte for member banks...................... . 17 4 Other bills dieoounted............................. 28 140 Industrial advances ......... ... ......... , .... .. .. . 82 506 United States Government eeeurities... .. ..... .. . . . • 84,023 00,875 Total earning RBSeta. . . . . ... ...... . ............... 85,050 01,525 Member bank reserve depoeita. ........ . .. ......... 242,800 215,606 Federal Reserve notes in aotual eiroulation . . . . . . . . . . 05,257 83,200 Nov. 15, 1940 $204,414 58 24 222 86,028 87,227 236,350 02,665 CONDITION STATISTICS OF MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES (In thousands of dollars) Dee. II, Deo. 13, Nov. 13, 1040 1030 1040 Totalloane and investmente . .... ... . . ... .... .... ,. $580,037 $560,005 $571,216 Totalloane . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . ... 308,653 285,551 295,505 Commercial, induetrial and agriculturalloane. ..... 200,133 100,101 190,064 Open market paper. ............................ 1,611 1,858 1,611 Loane to brokere nnd dealers in securities. .. ....... 4,004 5,163 2,836 Other loans for purchasing or carrying seeuritiee. . .. 13,337 14,036 13,348 Real estate loans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 23,833 21,635 28,523 Lonns to banks. . . . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. 552 246 504 All other loans. ' . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. 56,183 52,422 54,700 United States Government direet obligations . ...... . . 171,245 164,368 170,533 Obligations fully guaranteod by United States Govl.. 41,087 52,200 45,387 Other seeuritie.. . .. ...... . .... . .. . ............... 58,152 57,877 59,701 Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank. .. .. . . .. . . .. .. . 145,846 138,860 151,705 Balances with domestio banks.... ..... ............. 277,402 264,231 291,251 Demand deposits-adjusted·. . . ................... 510,015 472,883 515,300 Time de'poslts .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. . . . 135,264 135,504 133,877 United Statoe Government deposita... . . . .. . . .. .. .. . 25,470 33,375 32,386 Interbank depoeits........... . ... ................. 274,807 272,431 283,636 Borrowings from Federal Reserve Bank. .. .......... None None None ·Ineludes nil demand depoeits other than intarbank and United Statoe Government, Ie •• oash items reported as on band or in process of oolleotion. DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS (In thousands of dollars) November November Petg.ohange 1040 1039 over year Abilene . . ........... . .. . $ 0,081 $ 8,200 +20.3 Auetin ................. . 32,704 20,250 +12.1 Beaumont . . ......•..... . 27,270 24,513 +11.3 Corsicana . ... . . .. . .... . . 3,550 3,315 7 .1 Dallas . ....... . ... .... .. 254,047 281,346 +10.7 EI Paso ......... . ...... . 42,569 31,808 +33.8 87,810 Fort Worth ............. . 8a.o37 5.7 Galveston .............. . 29,452 38,463 +30 .6 230,214 270,000 Houston ......... ....... . +13 .2 Port Arthur ............ . 10,033 0,355 7.2 7,048 Roewell ....... . ...... .. . 5,848 +20.6 65,961 San Antonio ............ . 76,046 +16.7 45,657 Shreveport . ............ . 46,068 .0 7,304 Texarkana· ... . . .. ...... . 8,278 +13 .3 12,055 12,042 Tueson ................. . 7.4 12,023 11,727 'I'yler ...... .. .......... . 2.5 13,815 14,753 Waco . ....... .. . ..•..... 6.8 13,031 Wiehita Falls .. ......... . 17,588 +35.0 + + + + + + + Oetobor 1040 $ 10,788 33,575 24,9 12 4,882 203,501 33,482 87,808 20,588 265,575 10,324 5,758 78,126 46,601 9,064 13,354 13,594 16,748 17,831 ~~~~.~~~~ -7.5 - 2.3 9.5 -27.3 - 4.1 +27.1 + - .1 +30.0 2.0 - 2.8 +22.4 + -1.5 - 1.3 - 8.7 -3. 1 - 11. 6 -11.0 - 1.4 Total.. .. .. .. ... $1,000,366 $887,683 +12 .7 $905,691 +.5 ·Inoludes the figures of tIVO banks in Texarkana, Arkaneas, looated in the Eighth Distriot, GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS (Average of daily figures-in thousnnds of dollars) Combined total Reserve eity banks Country banks "t "h 8 November, November, July, August, September, Ootober, November, GroBS demand 1038 .......... $1,188,460 1030 .... . . . ... 1,340,118 1940 ... ..... .. 1,332,386 1040 ..... , .... 1,315,554 1040 ....... . .. 1,346,346 1040 ........ .. 1,408,515 1040 .... ..... . 1,469,805 b Time $222,020 232,340 234,758 234,123 233,023 233,323 283,412 GrOBS demand 5667,021 777,045 778,481 768,031 783,742 814,555 842,576 Time Sl22,980 128,081 129,001 128,963 128,161 128,205 128,213 SAVINGS DEPOSITS November, 30,1940 Beaumont . ......•. . ..... DaUas .................. El Paeo . ............. ... Fort Worth .............. Galveston .............. . Houeton ................. Port Arthur ........ . .... San Antenio .. ....... . ... Shreveport ..... .. ....... Waco . . .... ... .......... Wiehita Falls. , .......... All others ............... Total •• : ........ Numbor of rec::rting nks 3 8 2 3 4 10 2 5 3 3 3 60 115 GroBS demand $521,448 563,073 553,005 547,523 562,604 503,060 627,310 Time S 00,940 104,250 105,757 105,160 104,862 105,028 105,199 Peroentage ehan~e in snvings deposita rom Number of Amount of , savings Nov.30, Oet.31, savin~s depesitors 1040 1039 doposlta 0,087 $ 4,135,620 + 6.4 + .8 00,706 26,407,180 .4 + .0 8,303,238 + .2 18,636 + .5 13,011,311 - 4.1 35,127 + .3 .2 18,512 12,175,171 + .4 77,320 31,822,166 + 3.5 + .5 6,037 3,281,428 + 7.5 - 2.4 22,874 17,061,127 + .6 + .2 25,042 12,290,585 + 3.3 - .2 8,151 4,612,611 - 2.5 .5 7,216 3,649,234 - 3.3 .2 61,655 31,021,906 + 2.8 +1.1 , - - - 381,263 $168,680,667 + 1.2 + .4 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 4. excess of production and mill stocks have been reduced further to a new 1939-1940 low. Although the backlog of unfilled orders on the books of reporting mills showed a net reduction of 5 per cent during the five weeks ended December 7, on the latter date they were about 75 per cent larger than on the comparable date of 1939. Production of crude petroleum and the volume of crude oil runs to refinery stills in the Eleventh District and in the United States showed only moderate changes from October to November, and the rate of operations in the nation as a whole closely approximated that in the corresponding month of 1939. In this district daily average crude oil production was 4 per cent smaller than in November, 1939, but refinery operations were 6 per cent higher. The rate of crude oil production both in this district and in the nation was in close alignment with the amount of petroleum utilized during November; in consequence, above-ground stocks of crude oil showed little change over the month. The production of refined products in November was also in line with the demand, thereby enabling the industry to further improve its inventory position in relation to that of a year ago. Following a further substantial non-seasonal decline in the first week of November, stocks of gasoline increased during the subsequent three weeks, but the volume on hand at the close of the month was still fractionally below that of a month earlier. Moreover, the accumulation of inventories during the last three weeks of November was at a much slower rate than in that period of 1939, with the result that the spread between the volume of stocks on hand this year and last year was reduced further to an excess of only 5 per cent, as against an excess of 17 per cent at the beginning of last September. Coincident with lower temperatures, the demand for heating oil expanded seasonally in November, and stocks of that product VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED (In thousands of dollars) November November Ootober Jan. 1 to 1940 1939 1940 1940 22.500 12,672 22,798 Eleventh Distriot-total. .. 228,971 7,636 6,186 10,560 Residential. ..... ..... . 83,977 14,864 6,486 12,238 All other .......... .. . . 144,994 380,347 209,847 383,069 United States<-total .... . 3,547,768 152,838 116,588 148,469 1,437,669 Residential ........... . 227,509 183,259 234,600 2,110,000 All otber .. ......... .. . <37 states cast of the Rooky Mountains. SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Abilene ........ Amarillo ..• •. .. Austin ......... Beaumont . ..... Coreus Christi .. Dalas< .••..... EI Paso ...... .. Fort Worth ..•.. Galveston ..... . Houston ........ Port Artbur .... San Antonio .... Sbreveport ..... Waoo ........ .. Wiohita Falls ... No". 30 1939 181,507 78,672 102,835 3,106,445 1,245,501 1,050,854 BUILDING PERMITS Percentage ehange Perceatage valuation from Jan. I to Nov. 30, 1040 ohan~o November, 1040 valuatIon v Valuation from 1089 No. Valuation Nov.,IOaO 00t.,1040" No. 267 $ 601,354 + 7.3 17 $ 37,425 + 20.5 - 39 .0 829 2,340,565 - 7.0 49 165,820 - 8.3 + 9.6 2,769 6,716,315 - 2.7 737,343 +113 .9 +45.7 127 1,528 1,456,659 - 10 .6 131 163,152 - 40 .5 +29 .0 2,233 7,845,560 +22.2 280,746 - 79 .3 -37.6 157 7,208 13,261,537 + 8.6 686,582 .7 -40.8 526 4.4 - 2.3 985 2,923,129 +21.2 131,899 87 2,817 4,668,901 -30.5 407,557 + 1.0 - 20 .7 160 1,620 2,045,615 +53.9 231,314 +212.0 +95.7 188 43.3 5,277 21,098,260 1,088,580 21.0 -10.0 316 2.182 1,077,909 + .4 71,617 - 41.0 -30.5 146 7,120 8,430,503 2,151,097 +103.8 +83.2 478 + 6.0 1,934 4,595,706 -17.9 373,609 + 33 .8 +41.0 111 810 2,482,115 +72.5 62 102,713 + 70.7 -87.6 513 1,208,316 +27.6 27 74,130 - 34.1 -72.5 - Total. ... 2,541 $6,600,484 + 2. 2 - 13.9 <Inoludes ffigbland Park aad University Park. 38,092 $80,852,624 - .5 ORUDE OIL PRODUCTJON-(Barrels) November, 1040 Increase or decrcase in daily averago production from Total Dailyavg. produotion production Nov., 1039 Oot., 1940 5,300,100 176,670 +14,097 - 15,869 Nortb Texas ..... , , , ....... , • 13,482 7,446,850 248,228 -11,845 West Texas ................. . 446,112 -62,211 +21,639 Enst Texas ... , ............. . 13,883,350 6,023,050 200,768 -16,664 - 6,015 Soutb Texas ................ . 235,972 7,079,150 +10,829 +13,550 Telaa Coastal.. ............. . Total Telas .• , . .. , .. New Mexico ...... " . .. ..... . North Louisiana ........... , .. 39,232,500 3,032,650 2,002,450 1,307,750 101,088 66,748 --- -54,052 + 438 765 Total Distriot, ..... ,. 44,267,600 1,475,586 -54,379 SOURCE: Estimated from American Petroleum Institute weekly reports, -11,910 + 400 + 454 -11,047 in the United States were reduced 5 per cent over the month. Inventories of industrial fuel oil also declined and at the end of November were 3 per cent lower than a year earlier. Drilling activity in this district and in the United Stat~S expanded moderately from October to November, and was In about the same volume as that of a year ago. The rate of activity at cotton textile mills in the Unite~ States rose further during November. The Board of Governors index of cotton consumption increased from 126 per cent 0 f the 1935-1939 average in October to 135 per cent in Nove~ ber, an all-time high level. Due to fewer working days In November, the quantity of raw cotton utilized during the month was moderately smaller than in October, but on a daily average basis consumption exceeded that of a month earlier by 7 per cent and was 9 per cent greater than in November, 1939. Mill sales of cotton products during November were fairly Vle~ sustained, though reports indicate that the commercial dema n dropped off somewhat during the latter part of the month and in early December. Prices of cotton goods have advanced moderately further, and mill margins continue to widen. Stocks of raw cotton at consuming establishments were increased seasonally by 24 per cent in November, but at the close of the month they were still 6 per cent smaller than a year ago. Exports of cotton from the United States .during November continued at the sharply reduced rate that has prevailed t~US far this season. Shipments totaled only 144,700 bales, which was about one-fourth the volume in November last year. Great Britain, Russia and Canada continue to be the chief importers of American cotton. Russian takings during the first fo~r months of the current season have been at the highest rate many years, and they represent about one-fourth of the tota shipments during the season. The Commodity Credit Corporation reported that 2,384,5 00 bales of the 1940 cotton crop had been placed in government loan stocks prior to December 9, including 1,223,000 bales of the Texas crop. 11 STATISTICS ON COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS ,,-----Texas _________ United Stntes-----August 1 to November 30 August 1 to November 30 This season Last sea.on This season Last sensOD Cottonseed received at milia (tons) .. .. ... .. . . . .. . ..... . 787,708 769,024 2,896,024 3,203,6~~ Cottonseed crushed (tons) .... . 533,639 544,144 1,773,304 2,031,5 Cottonseed on band Nov. 30 270,481 270,848 1,162,227 1,202,777 (tons) . ................... . Produotion of produots: 630 238,96~ Crude oil (pounds) .... . ... . 150,824,189 155,088,720 563,566,351 '910,310 Cake and meal (tons) ...... . 240,161 256,852 700,651 516,321 Hulls (tons) ..... .. . ...... . 137,061 142,810 442,023 407,530 Lintars (running bales) .. .. . . 128,015 121,635 401,447 Stooks on hand November 30: Crude oil (pounds). . . . . . . . . 34,617,804 25,542.545 110,476,264 86,899'~b: 206, Cake and meal (tons). . . . . . . 59,778 81,602 153,465 Hulls (tons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,087 71,918 159,1:~ 143,021 374,1 Linters (running bales)... . .. 05,407 113,003 202,118 SOURCE: United Slates Bureau of Consus. CONSUMPTION, STOCKS November Consumption nt: 1040 Texas mills............ 20,583 United States mills . .. .. 744,088 U.S. stocks-end of month: In oonsuming estab'mts. 1,682,278 Publiestg.&00mpresses . 14,727,234 EX.JlOrts from U. S. to: United Kingdom. . .. . . . 51,850 France. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . None Italy....... ... ........ None Germany . . . . . . . . . . . .. . None Othor Europo . . . . . . .. .. 44,878 AND EXPORTS OF COTTON-(Bales) Novomber October Au~ust 1 to November O 3~ 1939 1040 Th,s soason Last seaB 12,800 15,772 67 774 47,12~ 781,719 770,702 2,808;545 2,060,02 1,782,580 15,484,383 1,354,063 13,848,115 111,005 None None None 54,573 7,056 20,717 288,080 None None None 101,239 20,851 85,214 194,251 495,300 iir~~h~~ c~~;;t~icS·.·. ~ ~ :: 4~:m 158,364 49,378 30,810 None 124,504 116,707 103,782 Total exports. . .... 144,710 583,644 .. .. RECEIPTS, EXPORTS, AND STOCKS OF COTTON AT THE PORTS OF HOUSTON AND GALVESTON-(B.lcs) ber 30 November November October AU$ust 1 to Novem .-00 ThIS senson Last se1040 1039 1040 1j189,007 2,24 320,964 555,844 346,684 30 428,329 1,4, 131,441 350,357 125,079 ~~~~r~ 1,766,000 1,723,622 Stooks, end of month ....• 1,805,820 . . :::::::: ::::::: 3,m .... MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW JANUARY 1,1941 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Complied by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Jou 140 OtlfT I'V\ Or.NT 140 I~O \ \ 110 100 IIJ 90 90 10 'v'- I 120 V~ / ) J \ h./ I 130 120 90 ,,} 60 60 1 93 ~ 19 ~6 1938 1937 1939 1940 Index of physical volume of production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1935-1939 average = 100_ By months, January, 1934 to November, 1940. FRElGKT CAR UJAOINGS POINTS IN TOTAl. It«>EX 100 ~ndex of total loadings of revenue freight, o~ seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average ~Iscellaneous, coal, and all other expressed o points in the total index. By months, 1934 to N ovember, 1940. .. ts~ON S CONSTRUCTION Volume of industrial production, which usually declines at this season, showed little change from Oct ober to November, and the Board's seasonally adjusted index rose 3 points further to 132 per cent of the 1935-1939 average. eo 70 19 ~4 PRODUCTION 110 100 v Industrial actIvity continued at a high rate in November and the first half of December and distribution of commodities increased considerably. Commodity prices generally showed little change following earlier advances. CONTRACTS AWARDED OF' DOloLARS t.4 II..LIDN8 adjusted = 100. io terms January, Reflecting work needs, activity in the plants and at cotton close to the previous On a large volume of orders for national defense purposes and for civilian machinery and textile industries cont inued to increase sharply. At machioery textile mills activity reached new high levels and at woolen mills output was peak reached early in 1937. Steel ingot production, which had been at about 94 per cen~ of capacity in October, increased somewhat further in November and the first half of December. Automobile production continued in unusually large volume, amounting in November to around 500,000 cars and trucks. Retail sales of new cars have been large this autumn and production has been maintained at high levels in order to supply this demand and to build up dealers' stocks. Lumber production declined less than seasonally from October to November. New orders for lumber continued somewhat above the current rate of production although below the high level of the three preceding months when large orders were placed f or cantonment construction. Lumber stocks at mills continued to decline and were smaller than at any time in recent years. Bituminous coal production increased considerably in November, following a sharp decline in the previous month, while output of crude petroleum was maintained at about the October rate. Production of most metals continued in large volume. Value of total construction contract awards declined less than seasonally in November. In the 37 eastern States for which F. W. Dodge Corporation data are available total cont racts showed little change ; awards for public const ruction increased further and those for private work declined by somewhat less than the usual seasonal amount. In the far western States contract awards showed a decline from the unusually high level reached in October. DISTRIBUTION or DOL5~~ Distribution of commodities to consumers increased considerably in November. Sales at department stores and mail-order houses rose sharply, while variety store sales iocreased by about the usual seasonal amount. In the first half of December there was the customary large expansion in retail sales. Total freight -car loadings showed considerably less than the usual seasonal decline in November and the early part of December. Loadings of coal, which had been curtailed in October, increased sharply and shipments of ore and of miscellaneous merchandise declined much less than is usual at this time of the year. WHOLESALE COMMODITY PRICES RESIDENTIAL 0 Prices of basic commodities, which had risen substantially since August, generally showed little 1934 1 9~ ~ 1 9~6 1937 1938 1939 1940 change from the middle of November to the middle of December. Prices of a few imported comThree-month moving averages of 1'. W. Dodge Cor- modities, particularly cocoa, burlap, and shellac, increased considerably and there were small advances ~ora tion data for value of contracts awarded in 37 , astern States, adjusted for seasonal variation . Late't in steel scrap and some other domestic commodities, while moderate declines were reported for such 'Igures based on data for October and November and varied commodities as lead, grains, and lard. estimate for December. ----~ ____ ~ __ ~ _ _ _ __ L_ _ _ _ ~ _ __ L_ ___J BANK CREDIT MEMBER BANKS IN 101 LEADING CITIES BilliONS Of ~ ..w OfIlOUARS 10 Y ~ u.s.loo~ ~ /' ~ 12 10 ,.j"'." .... "" 8 6 r;/ ...... DANS .-L-...,./ 4 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT SECURITY PRICES OTHER SECU Ill ts ...... Total loaos and investments at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities have increased sharply since the beginning of October. Commercial loans continued to increase in November and the fi rst half of December, and holdings of United States Government obligations at New York City banks rose sharply. Principally as a result of the expansion of bank loans and investments, Government expenditures, and foreign disbursements financed by additional gold imports, bank depClsits increased to new high levels. At the same time there has been a considerable increase in currency in circulation partly in response to seasonal trade demands . 2 Prices of United States Government securities continued to rise during the latter half of Noveml.OAN!lTO BI'DK£RS MD O!AL.fJlS ber and the early part of December, and the 1960-65 bonds advanced to successive new high levels, 0 34 1 83~ 1836 1837 1838 1839 1940 with a peak of about 111 Va on December 10. The yield on this issue decHned to a low point of 2.03 iiednesday figures, September 5, 1934 to December per cent on the latter date, but increa&ed slightly toward the middle of the month, reflecting some , 1940. Comrjlercial loans based on new classificaeasing in prices. tion begiaaing May 19, 1937. ----
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