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MONTHLY BlUSINESS REVIEW o f the ~lume 27, No.2 FEDERAL RESERVE o f Dallas 'l:'his, copy is released for pub· hcatlOn In afternoon papers- Dallas, Texas, April 1, 1942 DISTRICT SUMMARY The influence of the war effort upon the National economy and the attendant readjustments necessary to effect a coordinated program of production and distribution are having ~n increasing effect upon operations in some lines. of industry 1~ this district. In the petroleum industry, productIOn of crude 011 and refinery operations are being curtailed substantially in order to bring about a better alignment between supplies and the effective demand. Drilling of new oil wells has also been reduced in order to conserve strategic materials. At the same time, construction activity is being well sustained due chiefly to large awards for publicly-financed defense projects. In February, the value of construction contracts let in this district was more than three-fourths greater than a month earlier and a year ago. Shipments of lumber continued to expand coincident with subStantial increases in the volume of new orders. Production and shipments of cement were sustained at a much higher level than a year ago. Cotton consumption at processing establishments in Texas during February was at a slightly slower rate than in that month a year earlier. Although the volume of sales at retail outlets in this district declined somewhat from January to February, Consumer purchases continued well above those of a year ago. Distribution of merchandise through wholesale channels during February was nearly one-fourth higher than in February, 1941. BUSINESS The wave of anticipatory buying at retail outlets that swept the country in January appears to have subsided to some extent during February. Nevertheless, consumer purchases were maintained at a high level. In this district, the value of sales during February at reporting department stores was .10 per ce~t greater than in the corresponding month a year earlier, and this bank's seasonally adjusted index of sales stood at 127 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, which closely approximates the avera~e for the four months preceding the marked increase recorded 10 January. Department store sales appear to have i~creased ~ore than seasonally during the first half of March, and 10 compamon With that period of 1941 the distribution of merchandise at weekly reporting firms was up 16 per cent. Department store inventories were increased by more than the average seasonal amount in February, and at the month-end the value of stocks was 37 per cent greater than a year earlier. !t is probable that about one-half of the increase over the year IS accounted for by the higher prices of goods carried at department stores. Merchandise orders outstanding on February 28 Were 10 per cent higher than a month earlier and about twothirds greater than on that date of 1941. The distribution of merchandise through most reporting lines of Wholesale trade in this district declined seasonally from JanUh~ry to February, but sales continued at a level about one-fourth Igher than in the corresponding month a year earlier. Among the individual lines of trade, the most pronounced increase over a year ago occurred in the distribution of drugs, groceries, machinery and equipment, hardware, and surgical equipment. Stacks of goods on hand at reporting wholesale firms on February 28 were valued about one-fifth higher than on that date in 1941. BAN K March 3 1 continued the rise that has been uninterrupted since January last year. According to the Bureau of Business Research of the University of Texas, employment during February was one-fifth greater than a year earlier and payrolls were 47 per cent higher. The number and liabilities of business failures in the Eleventh District continued in comparatively small volume in February, notwithstanding an increase as compared with a month earlier. Dun and Bradstreet reported 19 insolvencies in February with 3 total indebtedness of $253,000. AGRICULTURE Weather conditions during February continued generally favorable for field work, with the result that farmers in the Eleventh District made further progress in the preparation of soil for spring planting. At the same time, seeding of cotton and corn made considerable headway in south Texas, and is being gradually extended northward. Snows in north and northwest Texas and fairly general rains in several areas elsewhere early in March partially relieved a deficiency in surface moisture, which was becoming serious in some localities. Additional rains in most areas, particularly southwest Texas, would be very beneficial to growing crops and to livestock ranges. The growth of winter wheat and oats in central and north Texas, which had been retarded by the lack of adequate moisture, was stimulated by the widespread rains and snows in early March. Reports indicate, however, that the condition of the crops in those areas is below normal and that insects have caused considerable damage. On March 1, the condition of wheat in the heavy producing area of the Texas Panhandle was reported to be generally good, with prospects favorable for above-average yields. Growth of commercial vegetable crops in the truck growing area of south Texas, which had been good in February, was retarded by low temperatures early in March and some crop damage resulted from frosts and high winds. These unfavorable factors were accompanied by generous rains in virtually all dry-land areas, however, and the outlook for the production of spring truck crops is still good, though harvesting may be later than was anticipated earlier. Livestock ranges, particularly in the sheep producing area of southwest Texas, deteriorated further in February as a result of insufficient rainfall and cold nights, which retarded the growth of range feeds. Nevertheless, the Department of Agriculture CASH , FARM INCOME ELEVENTH FeDERAL RUERVE OISTRtcT " 1600~...j....~--I--I--l-+-l-+-+-1--I--I-+-t-+-I'_ , FollOWing a seasonal decline in January, employment in nonpgricultural businesses in Texas resumed the upward trend in ebruary that was in evidence throughout 1941, and payrolls This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 reports that on the whole the outlook for spring ranges is favorable due to the abundant supply of subsoil moisture in most areas. Wheat pastures in north and northwest Texas are still supplying feed for livestock, though not to the extent that was anticipated earlier. The condition of cattle showed little change in February and it is probable that animals will emerge from the winter in above-average flesh. Demand for cattle, especiaUy feeders and stockers, has been strong. Prospects indicate a large 1942 caIf crop. The deterioration of ranges in the Edwards Plateau region of Texas has had a very adverse effect upon the condition of sheep, with the result that prospects are unfavorable for a large supply of grass-fat lambs for spring marketing. In some areas the lamb crop is expected to be short. Moreover, the development of early lambs generally has been unsatisfactory. The condition of sheep and their ranges in New Mexico and Arizona continues generally good. Increased production of livestock in this district during 1941 was accompanied by reduced marketings due in part to the fact that generally favorable range conditions and ample feed supplies were conducive to an expansion in the number of animals retained on farms and ranches. In consequence of these developments, the number of livestock on farms and ranches in this district at the beginning of 1942 was 1,267,000 head greater than a year earlier and only fractionally below the total on January 1, 1934, when the all-time peak for that date was established. In the five states wholly or partially included in the Eleventh District, the inventory of cattle and calves on January 1 this year was 680,000 head greater than a year earlier, and the number of sheep and lambs increased 450,000 head. The number of hogs on farms, which had shown a pronounced decline in 1940, increased considerably during the past year. Marketings of hogs also increased, reflecting rising prices and a favorable hog-corn ratio. The aggregate value of livestock on farms and ranches in the five states at the beginning of the current year amounted to $8 52,000,000 as against $647,000,000 a year earlier. Production of wool during 1941 in the five states wholly or partially included in this district showed little change from that a year earlier, despite an increase in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Production in New Mexico fell off nearly 600,000 pounds and a small decline was recorded for Arizona. In Texas, wool WHOLESALE AND RETAIL 'IlRADE STATISTICS ~-----Percentage ohange in:----~ Number Not sales Stook. t -~ of Fcb., 1942 from Jan. 1, to Feb., 1942 trom reporting February, January, Feb. 28, 1942 February, January, Retail trade: firm. 1941 1942 from 1941 1941 1942 Department etore.: Totol11th Dist ..... 48 +LO - 16 +19 +37 +11 Dalla•............ 7 + 6 -10 +12 +29 + 8 4 +19 -21 +27 +40 +16 Fort Worth . . .. .. . . Houston ... . ... . .. . 7 + 7 -28 +21 +49 +21 San Antonio ..... . . 6 +20 - 9 +28 +34 + 7 Shreveport . . .. . . . . 3 +18 - 17 +31 Other oities . . ..... . 22 + 8 -14 +17 +ii Independent stores:" -7 Arizona. . . . . . . . . . . 250 +12 +15 -12 -1 New Mexico. . . . .. . 190 -6 Oklahoma. . . . . . . . . 524 -6 -16 +3 Toxas .... . . .. ... . . 1,195 -18 +4 +5 Whol_le trade:" Maohinery, eqpt. &: .upplies......... 4 +18 + 7 + 2 +·i Automotive supplie. 5 + 2 -19 + 0 +ii 10 +17 -10 +15 Drugs (inol.liquore). +21 +1 l!,leetri~al supplie.. . a - 8 - a - 8 +·4 28 +29 - 6 +30 Groceries. . . . . . . . . . Hnrdware . . . . . . . .. 11 +24 - 4 +29 -3 No ohg. Surgioal eqp't.. . . . . 6 +24 - 0 +31 Tobaoco & produots. 4 - 2 + 9 + 1 "Compiled by United Stat.. Bureau of Cen.UI. tBtookJ at end of month. INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS (1923·1925 average - 100) February February January Deoember 1942 1942 1941 1941 8ILIes (daily average): 100r 108 122 222 Without seasonal adjustment ..... .. . 127 161 128 118 With seasonal adjustment .......... . Stooks (end of month): 67r 04 82 77 Without seasonal adjustment ....... . 70r 94 88 With seasonal adjustment .......... . 98 r-Revised. production rose moderately to a new peak of 80,250,000 pounds, and cash income from the disposition of the dip rose 28 per cent to $29,700,000, reflecting chiefly a substantial increase in the average price received for wool. The wool clip in the five states as a whole totaled 104,300,000 pounds and cash receipts from wool sales amounted to $37,29 0,000 . Mohair production in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona during the past year increased 3 per cent to a peak of 20,800,00 0 pounds, and cash income of farmers and ranchmen from that source totaled $12,0 00,000, as against $10,140,000 in 1940. Cash income of farmers in the five states wholly or partially included in the Eleventh District evidenced a pronounced increase during 1941, reflecting chiefly higher prices received for farm products. Government benefit payments to farmers in this district declined further by $34,000,000 as compared with a year earlier; nevertheless, cash income from all sources for 1941 was placed at $1, 340,000,000, which was about $305,000,000 greater than the revised estimate for 1940. Income during 1941 from the sale of cotton and cottonsed increased $160,900,000 over that a year earlier, which accounts for threefourths of the total gain in receipts from the sale of all agricultural crops. Aggregate receipts from the latter source amounted to $679,000,000 as against $463,000,000 in 1940. The livestoCk NUMBER AND VALUE OF LIVESTOCK ON FARMS AS OF JANUARY 1, 1942 AND 1041 (000'. omitted) ~--- Texas Eleventh Di.triot" No. head Total Value No. head Total Value 1942 1941r 1942 1941r 1942 1941r 1942 1941 r 600 638 $ 28,142 $ 30,270 1,290 1,340 $ 61,215 $ 63'r~~ Horses and colts . .... . Mules nnd oolts...... 484 526 34,568 39,390 821 868 63,174 68, 67 All cattle and onlves. . 7,444 7,090 318,641 223,078 13,653 12,972 585,793 419'~S2 Milk eowst ..... 1,473 1,444 81,015 59,204 2,790 2,701 154,075 113'231 Hogs, including pig.. . 2,042 1,926 23,246 12,530 4,110 3,878 44,498 23 '731 2 All sheep and lambs . .. 10,349 9,831 69,810 51,359 14,035 13,584 97,138 7, - - - - --- --- - - - - ---- Total. .......... 20,919 20,01l $474,407 $356,627 33,909 32,642 5851,818 $647,432 "Eleventh Distriot figure. are combined tot.l. for the five .tate. "holly or partially inoluded in the Elevonth Distriot. tCows and heifers tlfO years old and over kept for milk; number and valuo inolud.d io "all oattle and oalvel." r-Revised, CASH FARM INCOME (In tbou .. nd. of dollafl) ~---Texas 1941 Cotton ...... . ... . . ...... $235,943 Cottonsced. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,896 Food grainst.... . . .... . .. 43,770 Wheat. . . . .. . ... .•. . .. 27,207 Feed oropst.. . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,468 Corn..... . .. . ...... . .. 6,773 All vegetablcs!... . .. . .... 31,495 Irish potatoe... . . ... .. . 2,454 Truok orops . .... . .. .... 26,548 Fruits ... . . .. . ... ........ 16,762 Citrus fruits... . ....... 13,127 Total inoome from all crops 403,144 Livestock- ............... 303,331 Government income pmts . 63,647 1940 $130.047 20,826 32,421 19,631 14,930 50435 30,290 1,540 26,467 0,350 6,546 262,824 239,827 86,489 Eleventh Di.trlot"-;;-1939 1941 1940 103. $128,137 S 347,202 S 214,03g $ lD9'm 15,812 58,636 31,030 26, 30 26,326 104,004 80,012 7N38 18,410 68,778 51,980 ~'675 11,360 34,856 28,582 8'560 4,158 11,598 10,011 '911 23,795 59,290 53,915 4~'B03 1,431 4,888 4,091 '693 20,519 47,783 44,366 3~'0IQ 11,447 26,676 18,100 19'93Q 8,358 16,381 9,136 '424 230,209 679,0 15 462,830 48~'695 233,210 552,712 429,846 41 'ISg 110,755 108,532 142,667 1~ Total farm income .... 770,122 589,140 574,172 1,340,259 1,035,343 1,019,308 "Eleventh Di.trict figures are combined totnls for the fivo .tates wholly or partiatJlY 10· cluded in the l!,lcventh Di.trjot. tIlIcludes "heat, rye, rice and buokwh ••. tlncludes corn, oats, barley, grain .orghuma and hay. Unoludes lri.h and ,,,eet potatoes and truok orop•. 5Inoludes receipt, from the ule of Iivutock and live.toek produot •. LIVESTOCK RECEIPT8-(Numblr) ~For~ Worth---~-- San Antonio---;;;; Cattle . . .....•... . .•.. . .. Calve•........... . •.... . Hog•................ . ... Sheep ...... . •........ . . . February ~'ebruary 1042 1941 38,705 20,300 15 15,122 ]6 '3'5 8 50,923 '8'7,9 37,699 1, , 0 January 1042 45,682 6244,'969 131 43,766 February February 1942 1941 15,748 12,9 1B 262 75 13 '8 11~,'867672 10, 5",831 7,899 Ja~g42 Q67 ~~'B29 12'008 o'~gO ' COMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICES (Dolla .. per hundred".iKbt) - - - F ort Worth---~-- San Antonio---;;';; February February J~nuary February February Jaf042 1942 1941 1942 1042 IOU 60 $11.60 $12.50 $11.00 $11.75 SI1. Beer .teers .... . ...... . .. . 512.00 11.25 11.50 ... ··6 Stooker .teers . .. ........ . 11.50 12.75 12.00 12.50 ·ia:2il ·iiJ:iJiJ 12 ·~0 Heifers and yearling•..... Butoher oows ........... . 9.25 7.50 8.85 0.00 7.00 Iho Calves .............. . .. . 12.50 10.60 11.50 11.75 10.50 11.00 Hog•..... . .. . .....•..... 13 .10 8.LO 11.75 12.75 7.85 10.60 W.oO U.U U.OO 0.50 Lambs ................. . U.OO MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW industry in this district has shown rapid growth in recent years, and cash receipts from the sale of livestock and livestock prodUCts have been rising. During 1941, total cash receipts amounted to $552,700,000, which is $122,900,000 greater than in 1940 and nearly double the annual average cash receipts from that source during the five years 1924-1928, inclusive. FINANCE Effective March 21, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reduced from 10 per cent to 1 per cent per annum the rate on discounts of eligible paper for member banks and advances thereon, under Sections 13 and 13 a of the Federal Reserve Act, as amended. Member bank reserve balances maintained at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which had declined substantially in the last half of February, reflecting primarjl.y withdrawals by the Treasury of funds held in depositary banks and payments in cash for Government securities allotted in connection with the recent Treasury offering, rose considerably during the first two weeks of March. Daily average reserve balances in the latter period were $1,800,000 greater than in the first half of February and only fractionally below the all-time peak of $311,200,000 recorded during the first hal.f of December, 1941. Daily average excess reserves likewise increased during the initial two Weeks of March to, a level closely approximating that one month earlier, which averaged nearly $90,000,000. Federal Reserve notes of this bank in actual circulation showed a further substantial increase during February and the early part of March, reaching a new aU-time peak of $142,680,O?O on March 9. The latter amount is approximately $4,300,000 higher than the previous peak reached early in February, and $42,570,000 greater than on the corresponding date in 1941. The increase in this bank's note circulation during February and early March was reflected principally in currency of $10 and $~O denominations, but there were also sizable increases in the Circulation of currency of some of the larger denominations. Subscriptions by banks and other investors in trus district to the new issue of 2Y4 per cent Treasury bonds of 1952-195', dated February 25,1942, amounted to $101,830,000, and allotrnents, which were at a rate of 32 per cent of subscriptions, tOtaled $32,8 5 5,300. Total investments of thirty-three weekl.y reporting member ~al1ks in leading cities of this district rose $12,900,000 between ebruary 11 and March 11, reflecting chiefly purchases of the new issue of Treasury bonds. Total loans at these banks declined f1,soo,000 during the four-week period due to reductions in oans On securities and in "all other" loans which include instalrnent and personal loans. Contrary to the usual trend at that season, commercial loans increased moderatel.y, due apparently , t? the Sustained demand for funds generated by the war produc~Ion program. Aggregate loans and investments showed a net ~ncrease of $11,400,000 during the four weeks ended Marc!} 11, d on that date the total of $695,700,000 was $104,300,000 . gher than a year earlier. The gain over the year comprises Increases of $38,600,000 in loans and $65,700,000 in investrnents. 70Totai deposits at reporting banks increased further by $11,. 0,000 during the four weeks ended March 11, reflecting gains ~ a~justed demand and United States Government deposits. e illcrease in Government deposits was due chiefly to "book ~edit.s" resulting from Government security purchases which ere 111 excess of the Treasury's withdrawals from its accounts at those banks during the four-week period. INDUSTRY D.The value of construction contracts awarded in the Eleventh t'lstrict expanded sharply from January to February, due en~rely to an increase in awards for publicly-financed projects ost of which will be used directly or indirectly in the war i: 8 effort. In the residential field, awards for the construction of additional army cantonments showed a pronounced increase, and the value of contracts let for one-family dwellings that will CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK (In ihoullnd. of dollan) March 15. Maroh 15, 1942 1041 Total cnoh rcoervet . ....... .. ... . . . .... . . . ....... . $398,105 $311,SO~ Discount. for member bank... . ...... . ......... .. . . 103 None Industrial advances .. . .. , ..................... ... . 238 277 United States Govornment .eourities ...........• . ... 87,797 8M35 88,138 Total earning nsoots .... . ................... . .... . 87,112 Member bank re.erve depo.its ... . ................ . 31M25 255,05~ i.deral Rea"vI nol •• in aetual oireuJation .. . ...... . 140,210 08,70~ F.b.15, 1042 UIO,OOO 87 24~ 87.301 87,724 317,310 130.402 CONDITION STATISTICS OF MEMBER BANKS TN LEADING CITIES (In thousandl of dollan) Maroh 11, Maroh 12, Feb. 11, 1042 1041 1042 Totalloana aod invettment.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . $695.083 $591,360 $~8U43 Total loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35S,88~ 820,300 3~0,385 Commeroial, indu.trialand 19rioulturallo.nl. . . . . . 255,433 220,046 255,027 Opoo markot paper... ..... .. .. .. ............... 2,460 1,050 2,333 Lo.ns to broken .nd dealera in leouritie.. . . . . . . . . . 4,637 3,S54 4,051 Oth~r loan8 for purohasing or carrying lecurities.... 12,244 11,895 12,882 Real estate loans. . .. ............ ............... 21,~80 23,471 21,617 Loao. to banks...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. . 301 640 327 All other 10.08................................. ~2,041 57,844 84.148 United Stat.. Government direot oblig.tions.... . . . . . 233,875 1~0,00+ 221,005 Obligations fully ~u.ranteed by United St.tel Gov!... 88,109 40,385 30,123 Other securities. . ... ... ....... .. .............. ... 64,753 61,671 63,730 ncsorves with Federal Reserve Bank.... . . . . .. .... .. 190.187 101,057 102,157 nalanoe8 with domestic bankl..... .............. .. . 302,010 307,400 301,110 Dem.nd deposita-adiu.ted' ... '" .........•..... . 645,203 556,70~ ~3M16 TIme doposlt!....... .. ............ ........ . ... .. . 129,582 137,000 130,131 United Slote. Government depo.ita... . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 44,185 22,420 35,187 Interbank deposit........ .......... .. .. ........... 31~J209n3e 204,526 325.042 Borrowings from Federal Re.crve nank . . . . . . . . .. . . . N Noae Non. 'Inoludet all demand depositl other than interbank and United St.tea Government, 1m ouh itema roported u on hand or in procell of collection. DEBITS TO TNDJVIDUAL ACCOUNTS (In thoulands of doUars) Febru.ry, Fobruary, PotK.ohang. January, 1041 over year 1042 1942 Abilen ............. ..... S 12,445 12,224 2 $ 15,072 AUltin . ........ '" ...... 41,175 34,088 47,752 21 Beaumont. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . 32,413 27,103 37,1~ 10 Corsicana. . . . . . . . . . .... . 4,155 3,373 5,022 23 Dallas. . . . .. .. .. . ... . ... 354,133 266,639 897,888 33 El Palo................. 41,011 46,800 50,900 - 10 Fori Worth.... .... .. . .. . 100,900 88,361 128,521 32 Galve.ton. . . . .. . . .• . . . . . 2M71 24,440 37,011 0 Houlton.. .. . .. .. . .. .. .. . 322,120 200,147 371,302 24 Port Arthur. . . .. .. .. .. .. 13,061 10,188 14,107 28 Ro9"ell. '" . . . . . . . ...... 4,665 4.577 5,351 2 San Antonio. .. . .. .. .. .. . 89,043 78,347 97,038 15 Shreveport. . . . . . • . . . . . . . 58,500 45,716 ~0,004 28 Texarkana'.... . . . . . . .... 26,451 8,40~ 22,304 +215 TuMan.................. 15,410 13,387 17,505 16 Tyler. ................. . 12,750 11,430 15,151 +11 Waco................... 10,078 14,606 21,044 31 Wiohitl Fall.. . . . . . . . . . . . 20,078 15,508 24,280 20 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Pet, .• h.ngo onr month -11 -14 -18 -17 -10 - 18 - 11 -28 -13 -8 -18 -7 -16 +10 -12 -1~ -12 -17 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,204,058 900,348 +25 1,373,284 -12 'Includes tho figures of two banks in Tcx.rkan8, Arkan!a., located in the Eighth Di.triot, GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS (Averag. of d.ily figures-in thousands of doll an) Combined total Relerve oity b.nk. Country banb February, February, October, November, December, January, February, Groa. dem.nd 1040 ......... $1,365,474 $ 1941. ........ 1,533,864 1041 ......... 1.662,400 1941 ......... 1,742,340 1041 . ....... . 1,803,330 1042 ... ..... . 1,801,210 1042 ......... 1,805,645 Grall Time demand 234,300 $ 785,130 S 241,491 870,181 287,607 962,113 238,150 998,310 236,810 1,028,881 281,871 1,026,507 227,643 1,034,477 GrOll Time demand 129,055 $570,344 $ 134,200 657,683 132,050 700,353 132,582 744,036 131,048 774,449 128,427 774,043 120,400 771,108 Time 105,251 107,285 105,617 105,62~ 104,871 103,H4 101,044 SAVINGS DEPOSITS Febru.ry 28, 1042 Number of re~orting ne.umont ............... Dall .................... El Paso ................ . Fort Worth ......... . .... Galveston ............... Hou.ton ..... . ........... Lubbook ................ Port Arthur .. ......... .. San Antonio .. .... ..... .. Shreveport ........• . .... Waoo ................... Wiohita F.lls ............ All oth~r ......... . . .. ... Total. .............. anka 3 8 2 3 4 10 3 2 5 3 a 3 64 113 Percentaae change in savings oposits from Number of Amount of savings savings Feb. 28, Jan.31. dopositors deposits 1941 1942 10,368 $ 4,224,706 .0 .S 90,507 25,176,041 - 5.6 .0 18,614 6,873,520 -17.6 - 3.4 33,401 12,450,788 - 5.2 .8 18,353 10,844,745 -10.0 .0 75,353 31,102,357 - 3.8 - 1.2 1,403 548,001 - 1.2 1.3 5,513 2,070.076 - 8.8 + .~ 22,702 17,503,578 - 2.6 .1 25,834 12,004,SOI - 3.0 - .03 7,307 4,084,114 - 0.4 .7 7,171 3,382,406 - 7.5 .1 68,027 27,502,078 - 8.8 - 1.1 - - + - 870,603 --158,857,415 - 0.8 - .0 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 4. be placed on the " for sale" or "for rent" market when completed rose by about one-third. The value of awards for private onefamily dwellings for owner occupancy declined to the lowest level since December, 1938. Non-residential building, including commercial, manufacturing, and military facilities buildings, was nearly two and one-half times that in January and about t wo-thirds greater than in February, 1941. Engineering construction, comprising public works and public utilities construction, totaled $11,000,000 during the month, virtually all of which was publicly-financed work. The aggregate value of contracts awarded in February totaled $43,000,000, which was about 82 per cent greater than a month earlier and year ago. Only one-fifth of the total value of awards in February this year was privately-financed. The demand for lumber at pine mills in this district, which had shown a substantial gain in the initial month of 1942, increased sharply further in February, and at the month-end unfilled orders on the books of reporting mills averaged onefourth higher than a month earlier and 71 per cent greater than a year ago, Mill shipments of lumber during February exceeded production by a wide margin, with a consequent decline in in ven tories. Further dislocations in the distribution of petroleum and refined products, as a result of tanker sinkings by enemy submarines and the diversion of many additional tankers for military purposes, are having pronounced effects upon operations in the petroleum industry in the southwest. In view of the increases in above-ground stocks of crude oil in recent months and the current decreases in the use of crude oil in this area, proration authorities in Texas and New Mexico reduced substantially production allowables for March, and the National Petroleum Coordinator has recommended a further curtailment for April. In February the daily average output of crude oil in the Eleventh District had risen to a newall-time peak, which was 17 per cent higher than a year ago, The high rate of production during February, and the decreased use of crude oil resulted in a 7,000,000 barrel increase in stocks of crude petroleum in this district, and at the month-end, inventories were the highest since the spring of 1939. In contrast with the gain in this district, crude oil inventories elsewhere in the United States showed little change in February. In addition to the increase that occurred in stocks of crude BUILDING PERMITS Percentage ehange Percentage February, 1942 valuation from Jan. 1 to Feb. 28, 1942 ohan~e valuatIOn Valuation Feb., 1941 Jan. 1942 No. No. Vaillation from 1941 Abilene ... . ... Amarillo . . ... . Austin ..... . .. Beaumont .. ... Corcus Christi. Dal as ...... .. El Paso . .. .... Fort Worth .... Galveston ..... HOlls!on ... . .. Lubbock ...... Port Arthur . . . San Antonio ... Shreveport .. . . Waco .. ....... Wiohita Falls . . . 41 S 101,744 + 82 93,776 288,301 318,528 1,189.417 904,952 76,032 447,720 163,336 1,400,890 563,894 60,118 727,429 183,283 219,858 55,339 - 53 - 63 +260 - 18 7 - 78 + 28 + 58 + 25 + 48 - 35 + 92 - 39 + 45 - 32 . 93 - + 3 +100 + 10 + 90 +229 -63 - 38 9 - 19 5 +205 + 7 + 26 - 33 +1 84 +124 260 322 287 1,329 145 488 208 914 200 147 1,471 184 141 63 $ 200,119 140,551 537,522 486,170 1,561,057 3,33S,786 198,659 940,927 342,623 2,881,425 748,579 133,673 1,303,573 456,366 297,321 80,096 +53 -62 - 54 +23 -42 +65 -61 +10 +65 - 8 +26 -30 -11 -27 -6 -42 - 125 178 155 791 64 256 91 404 173 57 691 86 75 40 0,342· 14,751,488 -8 - 6,793,017 + t 1 Totnl .. .. . 3,227· tIndicates change of less tban one·half of one pcr cent. ·N umber of permits for Amarillo not nvnilable, VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED (In thousands of dollars) February February January Jan. 1 to Fob. 28 1942 1941 Eleventh District-total.. $ 42,981 $ 23,681 Residontial. . . . .. . . ... . 18,564 7,665 All other.. ....... .. ... 24,417 16,016 United States ·~total. .. . . 433,567 270,343 Residential. . ... .. .. . . . 168,014 116,459 All other . , . ... . . . . . .. . 265,543 153,884 ·37 States cast of the Rocky Mountains SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation, 1942 1942 $ 23,209 r $ 66,190 10,105 28,669 37,521 13,104r 750,403 316,846 270,772 102,758 214,088 479,631 r-Rovisedl 1941 $ 44,349 16,013 28,336 512,548 227,765 284,783 petroleum in this district during February, inventories of gasoline increased sharply further, notwithstanding a curtailment in crude oil runs to' refinery stills. Stocks of motor fuel in Texas increased 18 per cent during February, and inventories in the United States as a whole rose 8 per cent to 106,000,000 barrels, the highest of record. Civilian consumption of gasoline has already declined, reflecting the voluntary decrease in the use of automobiles for the purpose of conserving tires and tubes. The War Production Board, effective March 19, has reduced by 20 per cent the deliveries of gasoline to retail outlets in seventeen states along the East Coast and in the states of Washington and Oregon, so that additional transportation facilities may be utilized in the movement of other essential products. Inventories of fuel oil on the East Coast declined further by about 1,000,000 barrels during the five weeks ended March 7. The rate of drilling activity in this district and in the United States declined further in February, and although the daily average number of wells completed in the nation as a whole was 5 per cent higher than in February, 1941, the number of completions in the Eleventh District was at a 7 per cent slower race chan a year ago. Since December, 1941, the rate at which neW wells are being completed in this district has been reduced 22 per cent due to priQJ:ity restrictions. The number of drilling rigs in operation in this district and in the United States declined further in February to a level one-fifth smaller than a year agO, A further expansion in the demand for cotton textiles to supply military requirements was experienced by cotton mills ill the United States during February and the first half of March, At the same time, trading for civilian account was again curtailed despite a further increase in the rate of production of cotton cloth and yarns. There were 893,700 bales of cotton consumed during February, which represents a new high for the second consecutive month in the daily average rate of consumption, Mills continued to build up their stocks of raw cotton; at the close of February inventories at mills amounted to 2,580,000 bales which was 3 per cent higher than a month earlier and about one-third greater than a year ago. STATISTICS ON COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS ~---Texas United StatesAugust 1 to Fcbruary 28 August 1 to February 28 This season Last season This season Last senson Cottonseed received at mills (tons) .... , . .. . . ... . . .. .. . . 940,421 1,089,615 8,811,046 4,13 8,S96~ Cottonseed crushed (tons) , . . . . 808,210 916,718 3,178,236 3,836,2 u Cottonseed on band Feb. 28 841,405 (tons) ... ... . , ... ....... . .. 159,406 138,044 768,339 Production of products: Crude oil (thousand 100.) . . . . 233,821 278,598 1 ,065,3~~ 980.061 Cakc and meal (tons) ... . .. . 356,566 1,481,9 6 427,474 1,383,727 837,56 Hulls (tons) ... .. ......... . 211,384 233,896 789,783 895,79 2 Linters (running bales) . . ... . 221,772 225,300 930,748 Stocks on hand Feb. 28: 88,6S0 Crudo oil (thousand Ib,,) . . . . 14,937 29,552 42,760 Cake and meal (tons) . . . . .. . 113,083 74,595 372,208 253,O~~ 211,S Hulls (tons) . , ..... ....... . 99,113 97,561 206,627 271.349 Linters (running bales) . . ... . 47,370 74,619 148,761 SOURCE: Bureau of Census. DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON- (Bales) 8 February Fobruary January AUj!ust 1 to FebruarY~n Consumption at: 1942 1941 1942 Th,s Reasen Last seOS Texas mills . . . ....... , , 18,828 19,368 21 036 136,472 1 29,O~~ United States mills. .. . . 893,745 793,428 945:909 6,280,108 5,216,8 U.S. stocks-cnd of month: In consuming estab'mts. 2,579,789 1,906,835 2,495,186 Pub. slg. '" compresses . . 12,213,134 14,045,487 12,857,321 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION- (Barrcls) . .ilY Fcbruary, 1942 Increase or deorease '{ dill avcrage produotio~ Total Daily avg. 42 produotion production Feb., 1941 Jan. 19 464 North Texas .... . ... ..... . .. . 0,600,050 235,738 + 33,042 + West Texas ... , .... .. . .. .... . 8,773,450 313,337 + 77,576 + 6'150 hal + 30,028 + East Tcxaa . .... . ........... . 13,380,150 South Texas ..... , ... . ...... . 6,440,350 Texas Coastal. . . .. , .... , , ... . _8_ 4R_ oo ,6_ ,5_ _ 477,862 230,013 __ 08_ 75 3_ ,8__ + 26,868 + 64,815 Total Tex1l8. , , . . •. .... 43,843,100 New Mexico . ........ .... . , . . 3,372,600 North Louisiana ...... .. . .. ... 2,265,200 1,565,825 120,450 80,900 + 222,329 + 18,238 + 11,273 ~ +251,840 + 10,021 Total District .......... 49,480,900 1,707,175 SOURCE: Amcriean Petroleum Institute Weekly reports. 1'168 ++ '303 .....:---:::;; ++ 1~':~~ '082 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW APRIL 1, 1942 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SY8tem) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION "'hrI, III 1D"~ II..... 2.00 ","n '" toTAl. INOUlt lnIoI. PIIODUOnoN leo t-+-+-t-- t- 'Of.~ '"011 60 .....NU'.CTUU. PRODUCTION t -+---i 160 1-_t_+_+-I-h'4---I 140 I-_t_+_+-I-.('-_t_-I 120 1-1rn--_+-Rrf-I-_t_-I 100 H/' +-4f~~_/ -+-t---i ~ eo t-+--PY-- t- In February the Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production rose from l7l to 173 per cent of the 1935-39 average. As in other recent months, activity in the durable goods manufacturing industries, where the majority of military products are made, continued to advance, while in industries making nondurable goods and at mines activity was maintained at about the levels reached last autumn. t-+---i ~~~ 1 936 193e 1940 1942 1936 _ _ le3e __ 1940 0 ~~ le42 Federal Reserve monthly index of physical volume of Production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1935-39 average 100. Subgroups sbown are expres~ed io terms of points in the total index. Latest figures shown are for February, 1942. = WHOLESALE PRIOES h~ DtI!T 120 fU r - - - . - -.-- -.- - , - --,.- - , ---"i el" 120 1I°1--+--I---+--I---+- -t_--1110 1 001--+--1---+- -1-- -+- --,(,---1 100 ·° I---~~I--t_-_+--_t_-_+ __~4_-~ .0l---+---I---+~L-t----+--t_---I GO eo 19S8 1939 1940 1942 1941 Bureau of Labor Statistics' weekly indexes, 1926 average 100. Latest figures shown are for week ending Marcb 21, 1942. = I. MEMBER BANKS IN 101 LEADING CITIES kl.1OIIt orOOl.u •• ' II.UOIIIor I. 14 . OO\.~ ..... I I I .r/ u" ClOY'" oau&4flON./" , _.. "i-_..... . .f'~.w--' ~ <>? 4 J/-t- , )...-~/' I ~ 1 931 193 8 1039 1 940 1 941 1 42 9 ~ednesday fipures. Commercial loaDS', which in- pl,!de industrial and agricultural loans, represent 'or to May Iben reported. 19, 1937, so-called "Otber for March loans" as Latest figures sbown are 11, 1942. .. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS ~. or5Ol.u ' &IJOIIt oi MI.U,U ' IICTOtI IIUP'l'\.YWO ,,".JIVI: nncos ....,nL ...---r20 I. L 1----1- - - + - - - - i 1 6 / 16 DISTRIBUTION Value of retail trade continued large ill February. Sales at general merchandise stores and variety stores increased more than seasonally, while sales at department stores declined. In the first half of March department store sales increased by about the usual seasonal amount . Freight-car loadings, which in January had been unusually large for this time of year, declined somewhat in February owing to smaller shipments of coal, grain, and miscellaneous freight. Wholesale prices continued to advance from the middle of February to the middle of March, particularly those for finished consumer goods such as meats, fruits and vegetables, shoes, clothing, and household items. Temporary maximum price orders were issued covering wholesale prices of some of these products, including pork, canned fruits and vegetables, finished cotton and rayon fabrics, cotton rugs, and bedding equipment. These orders, according to statute, used as maximums the prices prevailing within five days prior to issuance. They are effective for only 60 days and may be replaced by regular schedules. TREASURY FINANCING AND BANK CREDIT In March income tax receipts by the Treasury for the first time reflected the higher schedule of rates. The effect of these recipts on the money market was largely offset by redemption of Treasury bills previously issued to mature during the tax collection period, by tax-anticipation notes turned in on payment of taxes, and by continued heavy Treasury expenditures. As a consequence a record volume of Treasury operations was effected with little influence on conditions in the market. Excess reserves of member banks showed no large change and on March 18 amounted to about $ 3.2 billion. United States Government obligations held by member banks in leading cities showed little change during the first three weeks of March following a sharp rise in February. Commercial loans increased further . 14 • In residential building, contracts for private work changed little from January, while those for publicly-financed projects increased sharply and amounted to about half of the total for the first time on record. For the past six months there has been a noticeable shift in privately-financed housing activity from building for owner-occupancy to building for sale or rent; in February, awards for the former constituted only about one-fifth of the small-homes total. This shift is attributable mainly to the activicy in defense areas and co legislation enacted last spring making possible the insurance of mortgages taken out by builders. COMMODITY PRICES V I 1 93(i In nonresidential building, awards for public projects increased materially, while those for private projects continued to decline. There was a slight rise in awards for public utility construction. /,' c~l~ ./'/" Value of construction contract awards increased considerably in February, according to figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation, owing mainly to a sharp rise in awards for public projects. Total awards in February were half again as large as last year, and public awards were about three times as large. I I 10 There were further increases in output at cotton textile mills and at chemical factories, reflecting an increasing amount of work on military orders. At meatpacking establishments activity was maintained near the high rate reached in January. Shoe production increased by less than the usual seasonal amount. Anthracite production rose sharply in February and bituminous coal production was maintained near the high rate of other recent months. Output of crude petroleum, which had been at record levels in December and January, declined somewhat in the latter part of February and in the first half of March, reflecting transportation difficulties. CONSTRUCTION 7P 19:57 Steel production rose to 96 per cent of capacity in February and increased further to 98 per cent in the third week of March-which corresponded to an annual rate of nearly 87 million net tons. Lumber production also increased, following less than the usual seasonal decline during the previous two months. In the machinery and transportation equipment industries, now engaged mainly in armament production, activity continued to advance rapidly as plant utilization increased and capacity expanded. Conversion to armament production in the automobile industry, where output of civilian products was discontinued in early February, is apparently being effected much more rapidly than had been anticipated earlier. 90 eo 19;' 6 Industrial activity increased further in February and the first half of March. Retail trade was sustained at high levels and commodity prices continued to advance. r-::::-'!~r~" r- UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT SECURITY PRICES ,r-"''j'''''''.j o 19"0 19 41 1942 '--_--'_ _ -'-___-' 1940 10041 0 Ut42 \1(Iednesday figures. Latest figures shown are for Marcb 11, 1942. Prices of United States Government bonds advanced steadily from the middle of February to the middle of March. Long-term taxable bonds yielded 2.35 per cent compared with an average of 2.39 per cent in February. Prices of short-term securities have held steady since the first of the year, with Treasury bills selling at around .20 per cent. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW THERE MUST NOT BE A LET -DOWN IN SALES OF DEFENSE SA VINGS BONDS General Douglas MacArthur, in assuming command of the Allied Forces in the Far East, said in part: "I have every confidence in the ultimate success of our joint cause. But success in modern war requires something more than courage and willingness to die. It requires careful preparation. "This means the furnishing of sufficient troops and sufficient materiel to meet the known strength of the potential enemy. No general can make something of nothing. "My success or failure will depend primarily on the resources which the respective governments place at my disposal. My faith in them is complete." That statement emphasizes a condition that requires speed, speed and more speed in converting our tremendous resources into airplanes, tanks, guns, and ships and the transportation of those implements of war to the plac.es of action where their use by our fighting forces will be most effective in admin~ istering a disastrous defeat to the enemy. The need is urgent; the task is difficult. It means that everY individual must do his utmost and make whatever sacrifices are necessary to protect our national secu~ rity. In performing that duty we must not spare time, energy, or money for none of these would have value without liberty and freedom of action. An essential factor in that effort is providing the funds to pay for the materials produced. The President has estimated that war expenditures during the fiscal year ending June 30, 1943, will rise to 56 billion dollars, and only a part of that enormous sum can be raised through taxation. The remainder, of course, must be obtained by borrowing, but so far as possible, it should be provided by the public out of current income, as that method of borrowing will create the least disturbance to our economy· That means that sales of Defense Savings bonds must rise to higher and higher levels as war expenditures increase and as national income expands. Prior to December, 1941, sales of Defense Savings bonds had averaged less than $300,000,000 per month, but after Pearl Harbor sales rose sharply and exceeded a billion dollars in January this year. Sales declined to about $700,000,000 in February, and amounted to only $300,000,000 in the first half of March. While this decline may be attributable in part to the need of individuals for funds to pay the quarterly instalment of income taxes due this month, it does not constitute a valid reason for indi~ viduals to diminish their purchases of Defense Savings bonds. Even higher taxes must be paid at the same time that more Defense Savings bonds must be bought. It does emphasize the need for budgeting savings on a monthly basis so as to provide funds for paying taxes as well as buying Defense SavingS bonds. In recent months, more and more business institutions have been inaugurating the voluntary pay~ roll deduction plan so that their employees may set set aside regular amounts each pay day for the pur~ chase of Defense Savings bonds, and it is estimated that more than one-half of all persons working ill trade and industry have that method for buying Defense Savings bonds available to them. To discharge our full responsibility to the Government and to the men in our fighting forces, it is essential that everY person save something each month for investment in Defense Savings bonds and that that amount should be as large as individual circumstances will permit. There must not be a let-down in the sale of Defense Savings bonds! MAKE PAY DAY BONO DAY!