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L 3l . 3 / 5”3 6, B U L L E T IN N O . 1536 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATE COLLEGE LIBRARY U. S. DEPOSITORY COPY DEC 2 8 1966 PROiECTIONS 1970 Interindustry Relationships Potential Demand Employment J. S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR ,W. Willard Wirtz, Secretary - bureau 5 ^ of labor statistics , Arthur m . Ross, commissioner BULLETIN NO. 1536 PROJECTIONS 1970 Interindustry Relationships Potential Demand Employment U. S. D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR W. Wi l l ard W i r t z , S e c r e t a r y BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, Arthur M. Ross, Commissioner For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 2 0 4 0 2 - Price $ 1 .00 PREFACE This bulletin provides projections to 1970 of potential demand, interindustry relationships, and employment under alternative assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth. It represents a report on a major phase of the work of the Interagency Growth Study Project. This project was started several years ago by the U.S. Department of Labor, in cooperation with other Government agencies and private research organizations. It represents an effort to develop a more comprehensive and integrated framework than had previously been avail able for analyzing the implications of long-term economic growth for a number of problem areas, particularly problems of manpower utilization. Guidance for the research program is provided by an interagency coordinating committee, consisting of representatives from the U. S. Departments of Labor and Commerce, the Bureau of the Budget, and the Council of Economic Advisers. The chairman of the corranittee is the representative of the Council of Economic Advisers. The actual work on the projections is shared by a number of Government agencies, private research organizations, and universities. The central project staff is located in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The growth project research program uses the input-output tables prepared by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, as the basic analytical tool for the evaluation of alternative economic policies and projections. This program has been coordinated with related work on technological and manpower outlook of the Produc tivity and Manpower Offices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.* *For further information about the related work, see: (1) Techno logical Trends in Major American Industries (BLS Bulletin 1474, 1966); and (2) "America’s Industrial and Occupational Manpower Requirements, 1965-1975," prepared for the National Commission on Technology, Auto mation, and Economic Progress, by the BLS, and published in The Outlook for Technological Change and Employment, appendix volume I, February 1966, to the Commission’s report, Technology and the American Economy (1966), pp. 3-187. iii This bulletin was prepared in the Division of Economic Growth, under the general supervision of Jack Alterman, Director of Economic Growth Studies. Ronald E. Kutscher, with major assistance by Eva E. Jacobs, was responsible for coordinating the various elements of the projections and for direct supervision of the projections in a number of specific areas. Individual members of the staff had primary respon sibility for specific areas as follows: Eva E. Jacobs and Carolyn A. Jackson, potential gross national product (GNP), 1970 and review of the productivity projections prepared by the Division of Productivity Measurement; Donald P. Eldridge, consumer expenditures; Richard P. Oliver, Federal Government defense expenditures; Myrtle G. Nelson, Federal Government nondefense expenditures; Arlene K. Shapiro, capital flow projections and producer durable equipment; Joseph C. Wakefield, construction, public and private, and State and local government expend itures; Daniel Roxon, exports and imports; William I. Karr, projections of input-output coefficients. The projections are based also on the major research contributions of other units within the Bureau of Labor Statistics, other Government agencies, private research organizations, universities, and individuals. The contributors include various offices of the BLS (Productivity, Technology and Growth; and Manpower and Employment Statistics); U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; U.S. Department of Agriculture; U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines; Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University; National Planning Asso ciation; George Washington University; Council of State Governments; and Jack Faucett Associates (Silver Spring, Maryland). The use of the material developed by others will be noted at the appropriate places in the bulletin. In addition to providing materials for this publication, the staff of the Office of Business Economics assisted in many aspects of the research program. Comments on an earlier draft by members of the Business and Labor Research Advisory Councils of BLS, and individuals in private research organizations, universities, and other Government agencies were helpful in the preparation of this report. However, BLS assumes responsibility for the interpretation of the data and the projections. iv CONTENTS Page Introduction.................................................... 1 Summary......................................................... 7 Chapter: I. The framework for the projections...................... 13 II* Potential output in 1970............................... 22 III. Distribution of potential output among major categories of final demand....................................... 29 IV. Detailed final demand "bill ofgoods"................... 37 V. The interindustry employmenttable...................... 85 VI. Patterns of employment, 1970................... 110 Bibliography.................................................... 128 Appendix........................................................ 132 v CONTENTS--Continued Page Tables: Labor force, employment, annual hours and gross national product: II-l. Actual 1957 and 1965 and potential 1970............... Gross national product: III-l. Major components, selected years and projected 1970.... III-2. Changes by major component, selected periods and projected 1965-70.................................... Industry numbering system: IV-1. 1958 input-output study................................ Industrial composition of purchases, 1958, 1962, and projected 1970. 1958 dollars: IV-2. Federal Government................................... IV-3. Federal Government, percent distribution.............. IV-4. State and local government............................. IV-5. State and local government, percent distribution....... IV-6. Private fixed capital investment....................... IV-7. Private fixed capital investment, percent distribution. IV-8. Gross private domestic investment.................... IV-9. Personal consumption expenditures.................... Personal consumption expenditures: IV-10. Major type, selected years and projected 1970......... Industrial composition of purchases, 1958, 1962, and projected 1970. 1958 dollars: IV-11. Personal consumption expenditures, percent distribution.......................................... IV-12. Net exports........................................... IV-13. Total final demand.................................... IV-14. Total final demand, percent distribution.............. IV- 15. Total final demand,by major industry group........... Index of coefficient change: V- l. 1958-70............................................... Total employment: V- 2. Primary and indirect per billion dollars delivery to final demand, 1970. Summary table................... Civilian employment: VI- 1. Major industry groups, selected years and projected 1970....................................... VI-2. Change by major industry groups, selected periods and projected 1970................................... VI-3. ISP industry, selected years and projected 1970....... VI-4. ISP industry, selected years and projected 1970, percent distribution................................. VI-5. ISP industry, 1965-70, average annual rate of change... vi 28 35 36 58 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 76 78 80 82 84 103 105 120 121 122 124 126 CONTENTS--Continued Page Appendix tables: A-l. A-2. Gross national product, bymajorcomponent, 1950-65... Personal consumption expenditure, by major type, 1950-65............................................. A-3. Total employment (primary and indirect) per billion dollars delivery to final demand, 1970.............. Wage and salary employment by ISP: A-4. Selected years andprojected 1970..................... A-5. Selected years and projected 1970, percent distribution........................................ vii 132 134 136 152 154 Projections of Potential Demand, Interindustry Relationships, and Employment, 1970 INTRODUCTION This study provides projections of industry employment requirements in 1970 under alternative assumptions about the rate and pattern of growth. The employment projections are essential to the development of estimates of occupational requirements, information that is needed to implement the U.S. Department of Labor's responsibilities in the areas of occupational guidance and longer run training programs. The 1970 Projections The projections contained in this report are not forecasts. They provide detailed and consistent projections of what the economy may look like in 1970. These projections are dependent on assumptions about unem ployment rates, growth in productivity, the mix of consumption, invest ment, government expenditures, and other key economic variables. A crucial assumption underlying the projections is that the Viet Nam situ ation will have been resolved by 1970 and defense expenditures reduced to a more normal level. The bulletin contains four sets of projections. The major differ ences among these projections result from use of alternative assumptions about unemployment (4 and 3 percent of the civilian labor force) and about the composition of final demand (i.e., consumption, investment, government expenditures for goods and services, and net exports). The various sets of projections are designed to evaluate, among other things, the extent to which the composition of employment may be affected by alternative assumptions regarding the continuation of the unusually high rates of increase in expenditures for consumer durables and for business investment in plant and equipment during the past few years. The basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models assume that, by 1970, expenditures for consumer and producer durable goods will return to a pattern in line with postwar relationships. An alternative (high durables) to the basic 4-percent unemployment model assumes that the increase in expenditures for durable goods would continue at high rates. Although this rate of increase for durable goods is lower than in the preceding few years, it would still be higher than the rate that gener ally prevailed during the postwar period. An additional alternative (high services) to the 4-percent unemployment model assumes that, due to increased productivity of capital, capital expenditures will continue to increase, but at a lower rate than the increase in real output, with the result that capital expenditures for nonresidential plant and equipment will fall as a proportion of gross national product. It also assumes 1 2 that the anticipated increases in residential construction postulated in the basic models will be delayed somewhat and will increase only moder ately by 1970. The slower increase in private domestic investment in the high services model is assumed to be offset by larger increases in consumer expenditures, primarily in consumer services, and increased State and local government expenditures for education and health func tions . The projections are developed in a series of interrelated stages in which the starting point is the projection of potential output in 1970, based on estimated growth in the labor force, alternative assumptions regarding the unemployment rate, and projections of labor productivity and hours of work. The distribution of total employment among the various industries in the economy is, in turn, based on projections of how potential output may be distributed among the various categories and detailed components of final demand, i.e., consumption, investment, government expenditures for goods and services, and net exports. Estimates of final demand for detailed items, such as food, clothing, automobiles, medical care, machine tools, aircraft, etc., are converted into industry employment requirements through the use of an interindustry employment table. An interindustry employment table shows how much direct and indirect employ ment would be required in each industry to meet the demand for final goods and services, including employment in the supporting industries which provide the raw materials, parts, components, fuel, transportation and distribution services embodied in the end products and services. An interindustry employment table is derived from an input-output table which shows the direct and indirect impact of changes in one part of the economy on the rest of the economy. The projections developed in this study use input-output tables prepared by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, as the framework for the estimates. Although the projections developed in this study represent a major phase of the work of the Interagency Growth Study Project, they should be considered as part of a broader framework of growth studies. To put the present bulletin in perspective, it may be useful to outline some of the major elements involved in the study of the complex process of eco nomic growth and indicate some of the areas which need additional work. Economic Growth Studies in Perspective The study of economic growth includes (though neither exhaustively nor exclusively) the following elements: 1. The supply side (economic potential). Potential gross national product (GNP) is defined as that GNP which could be produced by a fully employed labor force. In addition to full employment, 3 potential GNP depends, in the first instance, upon (a) the size of the labor force, (b) the average hours worked per year, and (c) the average output per man-hour. The growth in potential GNP, therefore, depends upon the growth in these separate com ponents . A number of complicated relationships is basic to each of these. For example, the rate of growth of the labor force depends not only upon the rate of growth of the working-age population, but also upon changes in labor force participation; these, in turn, are subject to a number of influences, such as the age-sex mix of the working-age population, the unemployment rate, the sectoral composition of output, sociological and institutional factors. Similarly, changes in the workweek depend upon such factors as changes in the unemployment rate and the speed of adjustment of employment to changes in output. Determination of the rate of growth of output per man-hour is perhaps the most complex of all. It depends upon (a) the change in the skills of the labor force as determined by educational achievement, manpower train ing, etc., (b) changes in the size and age distribution of the capital stock, (c) the rate of utilization of capacity, (d) the distribution of output among industries, (e) the state of tech nology, and many other factors. 2. The demand side. It is true that the growth of potential GNP is itself sufficient to determine the rate of growth in output along a full-employment path. However, it is nevertheless generally believed that there exists an interaction between actual and potential growth. It is likely that the rate of growth of potential GNP is itself retarded by persistent under utilization of productive resources. Idle resources--both manpower and plant capacity--tend to dampen the incentive to invest. Low rates of investment, in turn, retard the rate of growth of potential GNP. 3. The pattern of final demand. For any given level of national output, the following factors determine the pattern of final demand: a. There is first the broad distribution of final demand among the general categories of consumer expenditures for goods and services, government purchases, business investment, and net exports. This distribution, in turn, depends upon (1) the allocation of personal income between consumption and savings, (2) the profitability of investment, as deter mined by the state of technology, the utilization of exist ing capacity, rate of growth, etc., and (3) government policy. Government policy affects the above distribution through the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on 4 private investment and consumption decisions, and through direct government investment to fulfill social objectives and to meet defense requirements. Net exports depend on relative prices here and abroad, need for critical materi als, constraints affecting the balance of payments, etc. b. Given aggregate consumer demand, the pattern of demand for individual goods and services depends upon consumption patterns of individuals and families and the distribution of income and change in income among individuals and fami lies, relative prices, etc. c. The distribution of aggregate investment demand among types of equipment and buildings depends upon a host of factors such as the relative profitability of various industries; the introduction of technological developments; relative growth rates of industries; and the types of equipment and structures used by different industries. 4. The pattern of intermediate demand. Given any pattern of final demand, it is possible to derive the interindustry structure of output--including both final and intermediate goods--using the input-output tables. These tables show the sales and purchases among all the industries in the economy and can be used to show the direct and indirect impact of changes in demand in one part of the economy on the rest of the economy. 5. The impact of the pattern of final and intermediate demand. Projected changes in the interindustry structure of output, as determined by the pattern of final and intermediate demand, have a number of important implications for the growth process and for the formulation of economic policy: a. In the first place, the rate of growth of productivity for the entire economy is affected by the changing distribution of output among sectors and industries. For example, the secular decline in the farm sector, relative to the nonfarm sector, has in the past added to the rate of growth of total private productivity because the level of output per man hour in the farm sector is approximately half the level in the nonfarm sector. Conversely, the shift in the distribu tion of output from the manufacturing sector to the service sector and to government tends to lower the rate of growth of productivity. b. The distribution of output between investment goods and con sumer goods has important implications for the rate of growth of potential GNP. 5 6. c. The pattern of final and intermediate demand also has important implications for the distribution of payments to labor, property, and government, and among income groups. d. The pattern of employment, and therefore the occupational requirements, of the future depends upon the interindustry structure of output. The role of government policy in the growth process. A crucial determinant of the rate of growth of GNP and of the changing pattern of output is government policy, for these reasons: a. The role of fiscal policy in equating aggregate supply and demand at full employment is essential to the growth process. b. Government policies on investment significantly affect eco nomic growth, since investment in plant and equipment is the process by which new productive capacity is brought about, and by which productivity of labor is enhanced. c. Finally, the rate of growth of labor productivity is closely related to educational expenditures and to manpower training programs. Conversely, the form and direction which training and educational programs should take depends upon the pro jection of the pattern of final and intermediate demand, industry employment, and occupational patterns. The present study is based on extensive research and analysis cover ing a number of areas included in the foregoing discussion. These relate primarily to the projection of potential output, the distribution of out put among the major components and detailed items of final demand, and the conversion of demand into employment requirements through the use of the input-output approach. Other areas of research have been sponsored by the Interagency Growth Study Project, but are not included in this bulletin. Moreover, some of the areas have been covered only partially or not at all. Finally, as part of the continuing program of growth studies, the projections contained in this bulletin will be revised and extended as new information, revisions in the historical data, and the results of studies sponsored by the Growth Project become available. This should also make it possible to explore the implications for the economy of a broader range of assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth. As part of an evolving research program, the various specialized studies of economic growth will need to be integrated into a broader and consistent framework in which additional elements are taken into 6 account. For example, more attention will have to be given to the rela tionship between: (1) changes in technical input-output relationships and changes in labor and capital productivity and occupational patterns, (2) the rate of investment and the rate of growth of potential GNP, (3) changes in skills and education of the labor force and growth in labor productivity, (4) government fiscal and monetary policies and the rate of growth of GNP and its distribution, (5) government policies and programs and projected government and private employment, and (6) the pattern of demand, employment, and the distribution of income among factor shares and among income groups. SUMMARY A major objective of this study is to develop projections of the industrial distribution of employment in 1970 under alternative assump tions regarding rates and patterns of growth. The projections, developed in a series of interrelated stages, use the latest input-output tables prepared by the U.S. Department of Com merce as the framework for the estimates. These tables make it possible to show the direct and indirect impact of changes in demand in one part of the economy on all parts of the economy, including itself. In this study, projections of input-output relationships, along with projections of hours of work and industry productivity, are used to link detailed projections of demand for goods and services to employment requirements by industry. Thus, the projected structure of demand--the demand of individuals, business, and government, and the net demand of foreign purchasers of the products of American industry--are converted, by appli cation of appropriate relationships, into projections of direct and in direct manpower requirements of the specific industries. A broad range of projections can be developed, based on alternative assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth. These preliminary efforts, however, present four sets of estimates--all based on the assumption of high levels of employment and a stable economic growth rate. The four models are (a) a 4-percent unemployment model, (b) a 3percent unemployment model, (c) a high durables model, and (d) a high services model. The latter two are variations of the basic 4-percent unemployment model. The 4-percent unemployment model assumes that by 1970, the economy will continue to expand sufficiently to maintain the unemployment rate at 4 percent of the civilian labor force. This means that the number of new jobs will be sufficient to accomodate the anticipated growth in the labor force and to offset gains in productivity. The 3-percent unemploy ment model assumes that the unemployment rate is reduced to 3 percent and maintained at that rate through 1970. It assumes further expansion in programs designed to provide training and retraining, worker experi ence, labor mobility, and employment in public service projects. Most of the increased employment, however, is expected to be in the private sector of the economy. The patterns of final demand in both the basic 4- and 3-percent models are similar. The other two models (high durables and high services) assume a 4-percent unemployment rate. They are designed to evaluate the implica tions of alternative assumptions regarding one of the major uncertainties 7 8 in the projections of final demand--the outlook for consumer durable expenditures and private investment in plant and equipment, given their unusually high rates of increase during the past 2 years. Projected Growth Rates and Potential GNP Between 1965 and 1970, the labor force is expected to grow at a much more rapid pace than over most of the postwar years--almost 2 per cent a year, compared with the postwar average increase of 1.3 percent. The "normal" increase in the labor force would account for 1.7 percent a year; an additional 0.2 percent a year may be anticipated because the labor force participation rates at the present time are below the trend rates. Given the anticipated acceleration in the growth of the labor force and assuming increases in productivity of 3.2 percent a year and modest declines in hours of work, GNP would have to grow by about 4.3 percent a year between 1965 and 1970 to provide jobs for additional workers and to maintain the unemployment rate at 4 percent. It would take a growth rate of about 4.5 percent a year for the re mainder of the decade to reduce the unemployment rate to 3 percent. The 4.5-percent growth rate is lower than the 5.5-percent annual average in crease during the past 2 years, but it is still much higher than the 3.7-percent annual growth rate experienced over the entire period since 1947. This rate of growth would imply an increase of almost 25 percent in the Nation's real output by 1970. Potential GNP in 1970 would be about $835 or $845 billion (in 1965 prices),_1/ depending on the unemployment assumption. The 4.3- to 4.5-percent annual increases in GNP are averages for the remainder of the decade. Part of the increase is related to the re duction in the unemployment rate, thus the projections imply a somewhat higher growth rate until the 4- or 3-percent unemployment rate has been achieved. Once achieved, the continuing growth rate would be closer to 4 percent. This is still higher than the postwar average and provides some indication of the task involved if the national policy of maintain ing full employment is to be realized. If it is assumed that the remain der of the decade will see an acceleration in the overall rate of produc tivity, compared with the longer run trend, even higher rates of growth required to achieve and maintain full employment are implied. 1/ $750 and $760 billion, respectively, in 1958 dollars. 9 Projected Industry Employment Requirements In order to achieve an overall unemployment rate of 4 percent by 1970, total civilian employment would have to be about 81.6 million, rep resenting an addition of about 1.5 million jobs a year for a total of 7.5 million more jobs in 1970 than in 1965.2 / A 3-percent unemployment rate for 1970 would require an addition of about 1.7 million jobs a year or a total of 8.5 million, bringing total civilian employment to 82.8 million in 1970. This represents an increase in employment of about 1.9 percent a year for a 4 -percent unemployment rate, or about 2.2 percent a year for a 3-percent unemployment rate. Both the 1.9 and 2.2 rates of employment increase are substantially higher than the rates for most of the postwar period. The higher rates of increase are attributable pri marily to accelerated growth in the labor force as the children born during the early post-World War II years reach working age. Adding to the increase in employment is the assumed reduction in the unemployment rate from the 4.6-percent average in 1965 to 4 or 3 percent by 1970. Within the overall employment increases projected to 1970, the pro jections for individual industries show highly divergent trends for any one model, as well as variations among the alternative models. In gen eral, service industries are expected to show higher gains in employment than goods-producing industries. This represents a continuation of the long-run postwar trends, but there are some important modifications. Among the service industries, the highest annual rate of employment increase, about 5 percent or more, is projected for State and local gov ernment. Growth in this sector would be attributable to the continued expansion of schools, medical care, and other public services for a growing population, with some stimulus from Federal grants. In contrast, Federal Government civilian employment is projected to increase only moderately from the 1965 level. Many of the Federal Government programs which may be expanded sub stantially by 1970 involve expenditures which are considered, in the national income and product accounts, as either transfers of funds to individuals and nonprofit organizations or grants to State and local gov ernments. Examples of such programs are aid to education, training and retraining, and antipoverty programs, Medicare, and area development. From the viewpoint of demand for final goods and services, expenditures resulting from these programs appear as purchases of goods and services by consumers and State and local governments rather than as purchases 2/ The employment estimates cover wage and salary workers on estab lishment payrolls, self-employed, unpaid family workers, and domestics. The estimates refer to number of jobs and are, therefore, higher than the number of persons employed as measured in labor force surveys. This is due to dual jobholding and statistical differences between the two series. 239-877 0 66-2 - 10 by the Federal Government. A further caution about Federal Government projections concerns the assumption that there will be no military en gagement in Viet Nam or elsewhere in 1970. The projection of employment in personal, business, and private edu cational and medical services shows the next largest increase--about 2.7 to 4.2 percent a year, depending on the models used. The high rates of increase would reflect the continuing shift in demand for such serv ices and the lower than average increases in productivity (as commonly measured) in the individual industries providing these services. Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate is projected to continue to increase at a faster rate than the overall average and to account for a somewhat larger share of total employment in 1970 than in 1965. Under the high durable alternative, however, its share would re main about the same. Communications and public utilities are characterized by rapid in creases in productivity. The result is that, although services provided by these industries are expected to increase sharply, employment would remain at about the 1965 level and decline as a proportion of total employment. Employment in the trade sector is dependent, to a considerable ex tent, on activity in the goods-producing areas. The projections of em ployment in trade vary, depending on the relative importance of goods production in the various models. Productivity gains in trade are lower than the average for the total private economy. Consequently, the em ployment increases (1.6-2.1 percent a year) would be above the rate for the private economy and about the average for total employment in the basic model. They are somewhat higher in the high durable alternative and lower in the high service model. The increase is one of the largest among the various sectors because the trade sector accounts for such a large proportion of total employment. In fact, in terms of absolute numbers, trade and two other major sectors--State and local government and services (business, professional, private educational and medical, and personal) accounted for about 45 percent of total employment in 1965 In the aggregate they would be the source of about 72 to 82 percent of the total employment increase projected. Total transportation employment has been declining during much of the postwar period, primarily due to the reduction in railroad employ ment. Employment has increased within the past few years, largely in trucking and air transportation. Although productivity gains in trans portation are above average, the increase in demand is projected to be sufficient to provide the basis for continued small gains in employment. The increase, however, would not be enough to arrest the continuing de cline in the sector's share of total employment. 11 Within the goods-producing sectors, agricultural employment is pro jected to continue its long-term decline, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the total work force. The decline would be due pri marily to very high rates of increase in agricultural productivity (about 5.5 percent a year), with only moderate increases in the demand for farm products. In line with the long-term shift in the composition of the agricultural work force, most of the decline is projected to be among the self-employed and unpaid family workers, with the numbers of wage and salary employees remaining relatively stable. Mining employment, until recently, had been declining for many years. This is attributable largely to substantially better-than-average gains in productivity and relative declines in the demand for coal--one of the larger mining industries. Employment in mining is projected to continue to decline, although at a reduced rate. Contract construction employment is projected to show the largest percentage increase of any major goods-producing industry. This would be due to projected increases in construction activity to meet rising State and local government needs, increased housing requirements, and expanding business investment in plants. In addition, productivity gains in construction (as measured conventionally) are lower than the average for the economy. The combined effect of these two factors would be a very substantial increase in construction employment by 1970. Finally, what are the prospects for increased employment in manu facturing industries? One of the most important developments in the economy during the past 2 years has been the dramatic increase in manu facturing employment--the major source of blue-collar employment--coming after a period of decline in manufacturing employment and a modest re covery following the recession of 1961. Recent increases in factory jobs reflect both expansion in aggre gate demand and special factors affecting the character of this demand, notably the very large increases in demand for automobiles and other consumer durables and the unprecedented growth in capital investment. Expenditures for consumer and producer durables have increased, on the average, twice as fast as the increase in real output during the past few years. A return to more sustainable rates of increase in expendi tures for these categories of final demand would have obvious implica tions for employment requirements in manufacturing industries. The range of projections of manufacturing employment in the alternative models indicates that there is some prospect for increased growth in factory jobs of about 0.5 percent a year between 1965 and 1970 even under the lowest estimate. The high durables set of projections implies an increase of about 1.2 percent a year. (The 3-percent unemployment model, roughly adjusted to reflect a high durable goods alternative, would show an even higher rate of increase--about 1.5 percent a year.) 12 The projected increase in manufacturing employment represents a reversal of the 1957-63 experience when manufacturing employment showed no increase over the period. It should be noted, however, that the pro jected rate of increase in employment in manufacturing, even at the upper end of the range of estimates, would still be substantially lower than that for the economy as a whole. The projections also represent a slowdown from the more recent gains in manufacturing employment in 1965 and early 1966. The basic models imply even smaller increases in manu facturing employment between 1965 and 1970. Under all the alternatives, manufacturing would continue to decline as a proportion of total employ ment, from 25.9 percent of the total in 1957, to 24.8 percent in 1965 and to 23.1-23.9 percent by 1970. A major qualification needs to be made regarding these projections. Expansion 6f defense expenditures, if the Viet Nam buildup continues, will involve increased employment in defense oriented manufacturing in dustries and their supplying industries. The projections developed by BLS assume that by 1970, the Viet Nam conflict will have been resolved and defense expenditures reduced to a more normal level. During the period of the buildup, manufacturing employment may exceed the projected employment in a number of industries. A resolution of the Viet Nam situation and a return to more sus tainable rates of increase in the demand for durable goods would imply substantial reductions in employment in some industries, particularly defense oriented industries. This still leaves room for growth in em ployment for a number of industries under the high durables alternative--furniture, paper, printing and publishing, chemicals, computers, and selected metal fabricating and machinery industries. However, the projections indicate little increase or even reductions from mid-1966 levels for two of the basic industries--automobiles and steel. Chapter I* The Framework for the Projections By 1970, the labor force is expected to grow to about 86 million persons, or about 7.5 million more than in 1965. If the economy in 1970 will provide employment for all except 4 or 3 percent of the civilian labor force, these questions arise: 1. How might the industrial distribution of employment in 1970 differ from the present distribution? 2. To what extent do the implied growth rates of employment among the various industries represent continuation of past trends or modification of these trends? 3. More specifically, will there be a return to the experience of the 1957-63 period, when there was little or no employ ment increase in manufacturing and construction--the prime source of blue-collar employment? 4. To what extent are the projected results affected by dif ferent assumptions regarding continuation of the recent sharp increases in expenditures for consumer and invest ment durable goods? This report attempts to provide some tentative answers to these and related questions. It does this by developing detailed projections of the demand for goods and services, under various assumptions regarding unemployment rates, potential output, and patterns of expenditures in 1970. The report then traces the impact of these expenditures on indus try employment, based on interindustry (input-output) relationships projected to 1970. The projections are developed in a series of interrelated stages in which the first two stages provide the broad framework. The remaining stages fill in the detailed components of final demand, which are then converted into industry employment. The objective of the first stage is the projection of potential national output (real GNP) in 1970, consistent with low rates of unem ployment. Estimates of potential real output are based on separate projections of the labor force, employment, hours of work, and produc tivity (output per man-hour). The second stage is concerned with how the real GNP is distributed among the major categories of final demand. These categories include personal consumption expenditures, private domestic investment for plant and equipment, residential construction, net inventory change, Federal and State and local government expenditures for goods and services, and net exports. 13 14 The third stage involves the distribution of the major components of the major components of final demand into detailed items such as food, clothing, automobiles, television sets, medical care, rent, machine tools highway construction, etc. If the detailed estimates of consumer demand, investment demand, government demand, etc., are added together industryby-industry, we obtain the aggregate final demand for the products of each industry in 1970. For some industries (e.g., apparel, footwear, household appliances, farm machinery), the 1970 demand of final purchas ers will represent the major portion of total output of the industry. For other industries (among them, primary iron and steel manufacturing, coal mining, lumber and wood products, transportation), the demand of final purchasers will constitute only a small part of total output. Such industries produce goods and services primarily for further processing and intermediate use, not for final demand. Some method is required to estimate the output of raw materials and intermediate goods and services required to satisfy the demand for end products and services. Final demand for passenger cars, for example, implies a demand for materials such as steel, aluminum, glass, tires, upholstery, and related transportation and distributive services. Similarly, demand for apparel implies output requirements from the textile industry. The textile indus try, in turn, generates demand for cotton and wool from the agricultural sector of the economy and synthetic materials from the chemicals sector. Given sufficient information on the material and service require ments for each of the different final products, it would be possible to derive the direct and indirect output requirements implied by a given level of demand for final goods and services. The basis for such compu tations is provided by a study of interindustry (input-output) relation ships. There is a long history of work in the United States and in other countries on input-output tables and analyses. The results of this work are not nearly as well known as the national income and product accounts and their related analyses. For readers who are not familiar with inputoutput analysis, it may be useful, therefore, to indicate briefly what it is and how it may be used to bridge the gap between demand for end products and the direct and indirect industry output required to produce these products; including output at the earlier stages of production, transportation, and distribution. The development of the input-output tool of economic analysis and the actual construction of the first input-output tables were the work of Professor Wassily Leontief of Harvard University. Recognizing the potential of using input-output tables as a tool for manpower analysis, staff of BLS, under the guidance of W. Duane Evans, worked with 15 Professor Leontief 3/ to develop an input-output table for 1939. This subsequently was used as a framework for analyzing patterns of industry employment, production, and industrial capacity in the post-World War II economy. That major study, "Full Employment Patterns, 1950," prepared by W. Duane Evans, Marvin Hoffenberg, and Jerome Cornfield, was published in 1947 in the February and March issues of the Monthly Labor Review. In subsequent years, the Bureau developed a detailed input-output table for 1947.4/ Although major research in this area was sharply curtailed in 1953, the Bureau has continued to use this approach in its studies of direct and indirect employment generated by various types of construc tion and also in its studies of the employment impact of foreign trade.5/ In 1960, work on a new input-output table was started, based on the voluminous Censuses of Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade for the year 1958 The work on the new table was centered in the Office of Business Econom ics to ensure that it would be developed as part of an integrated set of GNP, national income, and input-output accounts. This effort resulted in the development of a new input-output table and revisions in the GNP and national income estimates so as to be consistent, both conceptually and statistically, with the input-output table for 1958. The results of this work were published in 1964 and 1965. 6/ Wassily Leontief, The Structure of the American Economy, 19191939 (Oxford University Press, New York), Second Edition, 1951. 4/ W. Duane Evans and Marvin Hoffenberg, "The Interindustry Rela tions Study for 1947," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1952, pp. 97-142; also, National Bureau of Economic Research, Input-Output Analysis: An Appraisal, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 18 (New York, 1955). 5J Claiborne M. Ball, "Employment Effects of Construction Expendi tures," Monthly Labor Review, February 1965, pp. 154-158; also, Eva E. Jacobs and Ronald E. Kutscher, Domestic Employment Attributable to U.S, Exports, 1960 (BLS, January 1962), summarized in Monthly Labor Review, March 1962, pp. 277-279; and The Relationship Between Imports and Employment (BLS, April 1962), summarized in Monthly Labor Review, July 1962, pp. 771-773. 6/ Morris R. Goldman, Martin L. Marimont, and Beatrice N. Vaccara, "The Interindustry Structure of the United States, A Report on the 1958 Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business, November 1964, pp. 10-29 Also, National Economics Division staff, "The Transactions Table of the 1958 Input-Output Study and Revised Direct and Total Requirements Data," Survey of Current Business, September 1965, pp. 35-56. The revised and benchmarked national income and product estimates consistent with the 1958 input-output table are described in an article by staff of the Office of Business Economics, "The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, Revised Estimates, 1929-1964," Survey of Current Business, August 1965, pp. 6-56. 16 In anticipation of the new table of interindustry relationships, the Interagency Growth Study Project started work several years ago on the use of the input-output and related accounts as the framework for developing projections of the economy in considerable industry detail under alternative assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth. What is an input-output table and how does it provide the basis for converting estimates of final demand into impact on industry output and employment? An input-output transactions table is like a giant checkerboard, in that every entry in the table can be read two ways. Reading across the rows shows what each industry sells to every industry in the economy, including itself, as well as to final demand, i.e., consumption invest ment, government expenditures, and net exports. Reading down the columns of the input-output table shows what each industry buys from every industry, including itself, in order to produce its own output. The table also shows, at the bottom of the columns, the value added 7/ by the industry. The sum of the individual purchases from other indus tries and itself, plus the "value added" equals the value of production. It is the information in the columns on purchases of specific materials, parts, fuels, business services, etc., which is used as the basis for deriving the input-output ratios. An input-output transactions table, when converted into ratio form, shows, for example, how much the automobile industry must buy from the steel, aluminum, glass, textile, rubber, plastics, transportation and trade industries in order to produce a dollar's worth of output. If we are interested in determining what effect increased automobile demand would have, not only on the automobile industry but on all its supply ing industries, the input-output ratios or direct "coefficient" can be used to measure the impact on all the immediate supplying industries. Each of these industries, however, has its own supplying industries. The steel industry, for example, needs coal and iron ore to make steel. The coal and iron ore industries, in turn, need fuel to run the powerful machines used in mining and repair parts for equipment. By linking all the input-output coefficients together in a consistent and integrated set of relationships, it becomes possible to trace the impact of the initial demand for automobiles on each industry back along the produc tion process. This covers raw materials, parts, components, fuels, and transportation and distributive services which are ultimately involved in making the final product--the automobile. 7/ "Value added" consists of labor compensation, proprietors' income, profits, interest, depreciation, and indirect business taxes. 17 It is the table of direct and indirect interindustry relationships (table 3 of the 1958 Interindustry Study) which is used as the framework for exploring the implications of alternative assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth on the industrial composition of employment in 1970. The concepts, special definitions, and classification system of the input-output table are described in the article on the 1958 input-output study published in the Survey of Current Business (November 1964).8/ The detailed description need not be repeated here. There are, however, a few major aspects of the input-output study which need to be mentioned so that the form and detail in which the projec tions are developed can be better understood. Classification system. The 1958 input-output table classifies all productive activities in the economy into 86 industries. In addition, there are a number of categories representing final demand and one com posite category representing value added. Each of the producing indus tries may cover a broad range of products and services. Most of the producing industries are combinations of detailed industries, as defined in the Standard Industrial Classification Manual (SIC), 1957 edition, prepared by the Bureau of the Busget. The SIC coverage of the 1958 interindustry classification system is given in table IV-1. The detailed projections of final demand are also classified by pro ducing industry, in order to be consistent with the classification used in the input-output table. This means, for example, that a projection of consumer demand for food is further distributed to show how much of the total will be from the farm industries (e.g., eggs from industry 1, fresh fruit and vegetables from industry 2, or bread and meat from the food processing industry, industry 14). Purchases of "shoes" are dis tributed between leather shoes made in industry 34 and shoes, boots, and sneakers made in industry 32, rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Trade. The input-output tables do not trace actual flows to and from the trade industry. If trade were shown as a buying and selling activity, the detailed connections would be between trade and the pro ducing industries, while the consuming industries would purchase most of their inputs from a single source--trade. To show the links between producing and consuming industries, or final markets, commodities are shown as if moving directly from producer to user, bypassing trade. Therefore, the output of trade is measured only in terms of total margins; that is, operating expense plus profit. Valuation of transactions. Input-output relationships can be expressed, in concept, in either producers* value of purchasers* value. Specifically, the inputs for making an automobile can be related to the price received by the producer or to the price paid by the purchaser. In the input-output tables, the valuation is at producers* value. 8/Morris R. Goldman, Martin L. Marimont, and Beatrice N. Vaccara, op. cit. 18 Under a system using producers* valuation, the individual inputs into a consuming industry are valued at producers' prices. The trade margins and transportation costs associated with all of these inputs appear as direct purchases from the trade and transportation industries, respectively. On consequence of using the producers' valuation of trans actions as the basis for deriving output is that the generated output includes only requirements at earlier stages of the production process; it does not cumulate forward to cover the transportation and trade activity required to move the product of a given industry on to the next stage of production or to final demand. In using the input-output table to convert estimates of final demand (usually stated in purchasers' value) into output requirements, addi tional information is needed on the margins for transportation and trade. These values can then be deducted from purchasers value to derive the appropriate producers' value. A final demand "bill of goods," therefore, consists of expenditures for specific goods and services, valued at pro ducers' prices, plus separate purchases from the transportation and trade industries for the services involved in getting the product from producer to purchaser. Information on trade and transportation margins associated with each transaction was developed as part of the 1958 Interindustry Study. This information is used to convert the final demand expenditures for goods and services, initially estimated in pur chasers' value, into producers' value. Secondary product transfers. A final demand "bill of goods" shows the demand for end items, classified by specific groups of products or services. However, a product may be made in an industry where it repre sents the principal proportion of the industry's output; or it may be made as a "secondary" product in some other industry. For example, synthetic resins are made in both industry 28, plastics and synthetic materials and industry 27, chemicals and selected chemical products. In the input-output table, to avoid the problem of splitting the demand for synthetic resins between the two producing industries, the interindustry study adopts the convention of transferring the synthetic resins products produced in the chemical industry to industry 28. Thus, the latter industry meets the entire demand for synthetic resins from the total supply, wherever produced. This approach implies that the "bill of goods" in the input-output system classifies specific items of final demand by the industries producing the items as primary products. The primary industries will, in turn, generate demand for these items in the indus tries where they are produced as secondary products. In this way, the output generated by the demand for a product or service covers the industries where the actual production takes place, both in the "primary" industry and also in the industry where the product is a secondary product. 19 This approach of transferring products, wherever made, to a single industry is based on the assumption of fictitious sales to the primary producing industry. It is used in a number of areas in the input-output table. This approach permits the demand for products or services to be distributed back to the original producing industries in the proportion that they contributed to the supply. However, in some industries where secondary production is large and considerably different from the primary output, such as automobile repair performed in automobile dealer establishments, the industries involved are redefined. To accomplish this redefinition, the secondary products and their associated inputs are taken out of the producing industries and assigned to the primary industry. Imports. Imports used for production (intermediate goods and serv ices) which can be substituted for domestically produced goods and serv ices are treated in a parallel manner to secondary products. These imports are assigned to the industry producing the domestic equivalent as an addition to output and a purchase from imports. This approach results in demand for a product (for example, steel) being met in part by domestic production and in part by imports. Imports used in production which have no domestic counterparts and imports purchased by final demand in substantially the same form in which they are imported are shown as purchased directly by the consuming indus try or final market. Consistency with base year prices. The basic input-output table is for the year 1958 and reflects the 1958 price level. In order to use the input-output relationships, the detailed projections of final demand expenditures must either be stated in 1958 prices, or the basic inputoutput table must be converted to the price level underlying the final demand estimates. In this study, the projections of final demand expend itures are developed in constant 1958 prices. This does not mean that changes in relative price 9/ are ignored. For example, projected changes in relative price are used in developing the detailed estimates of consumer expenditures. In another area, the change in relative price is implicit in pro jections of input-output relationships. Technological change affects input-output coefficients. Similarly, the substitution of one material for another due to relative price changes may affect input-output 9/ Relative price change is the relationship between the change in pric6 of a given commodity or service and the average price change of all commodities and services. 20 coefficients. Where past trends are used as the basis for projecting input-output relationships, the past impact of relative prices is assumed to continue. Investment requirements. The table of direct and indirect inter industry relationships shows what each industry must produce in order to provide the materials, transportation, and distributive services ulti mately embodied in the final products of the economy. The direct and indirect inputs are limited, however, to current account of purchases of goods and services. The input-output relation ships do not cover the purchases of capital goods required, directly or indirectly, for the production of final goods and services. In using the input-output relationships as the basis for converting final demand into direct and indirect industry output requirements, independent pro jections must be made for investment expenditures for plant and equip ment required by an expanding economy. The methods used in developing the projection for this component of final demand are discussed later in this bulletin. Employment. The basic interindustry relationships are limited to production relationships. They show what each industry must produce in order to meet the demand for final goods and services. The basic inputoutput ratios or coefficients do not cover employment requirements. In order to evaluate the employment implications of demand for final goods and services, the output requirements need to be converted into employ ment requirements. This is accomplished by applying appropriate ratios of employment per dollar of output to the derived levels of industry output. This can be done either as a separate stage in the computations or by converting the basic interindustry table into an interindustry employment table. The latter shows the employment that is required in each industry, directly or indirectly, to meet the demand for final goods and services. As in the case of output, the employment covers all the intermediate stages of production, transportation, and distribution ultimately embodied in the final good or service, as well as in the final stage itself. In this study, the projections for final demand are converted into employment requirements through the use of an inter industry employment table. Projections. Finally, the basic input-output relationships and the ratios of employment per dollar of output reflect the relationship which existed in some base period--1958 in this instance. The objective of the study, however, is to evaluate the employment implications of final demand, projected to 1970. Consistent with this objective, the inter industry employment table has also been projected to reflect changes in input-output relationships as well as changes in unit labor requirements 21 by 1970. The projection of unit labor requirements in each industry is based, in turn, on the projections of labor productivity (output per man-hour) and annual hours paid. The various stages of the projections can, therefore, be considered as falling into three main categories: (1) projections of the 1970 final demand "bill of goods," classified by input-output industry and valued in 1958 constant prices; (2) development of a 1970 interindustry employment table; and (3) the projection of 1970 industry employment, derived by multiplying the final demand bill of goods by the relation ships derived from the interindustry employment table. Balances. A distinctive feature of the approach is that the pro jections are developed as a series of successive approximations in which initial estimates of major aggregates and even detailed components may be modified by later stages in the computations until the various elements of the models are in balance. For example, the first set of generated employment requirements may not, in the aggregate, be consist ent with the projected supply of labor, given the assumed unemployment rate. If there is a disparity between the supply of labor and the demand generated by the model, this implies that either the level of potential output needs to be modified or the elements of the projections (composition of final demand, input-output relationships, output per man-hour) leading up to the derived employment requirements need to be reviewed and modified. Either approach may require several iterations to achieve a balanced set of estimates. The projections shown in this bulletin are the final result of this process of successive approxima tions, using the approach of achieving a balance by modifying each of the elements. Chapter II. Potential Output in 1970 The starting point for the projections of the industrial distribution of employment is the potential output of final goods and services in 1970. The projections are based on the assumption that between 1965 and 1970 the economy will continue to grow sufficiently to provide jobs for the expand ing labor force and to maintain relatively high rates of employment. For the purpose of this study, high rates of employment are defined as being consistent with 4- and 3-percent civilian unemployment rates. Projections of potential national output have been developed, based on these alterna tive assumptions regarding the unemployment rate. The projection of potential output (GNP in constant dollars) involves additional projections of the labor force, annual hours per worker, and output per man-hour. The projections of potential national output are developed in constant (1958) dollars in order to exclude the effect of a change in price. The projections of constant dollar GNP are stated in 1958 prices to be consist ent with the price level of the basic input-output table and the detailed estimates of constant dollar expenditures for final goods and services, developed by the Office of Business Economics. 10/ The various elements of the projections of potential output are described below and summarized in table II-l. (See end of chapter.) In 1965, the labor force (defined as those in the population 14 years and over at work or seeking work) was 78.4 million. By 1970, assuming a 4-percent unemployment rate, the labor force is expected to grow to about 86 million, an increase of about 7.6 million over the 5-year period.11/ There is some evidence, however, that the labor force participation rate will respond to the unemployment rate--that more people will seek to enter the labor force at higher levels of employment. To reflect this, under the assumption of 3-percent unemployment, the labor force has been increased by an additional 400,000.12/ The labor force is projected to increase between 1965 and 1970 at 1.9 percent a year in the 4-percent model and 2 percent a year in the 3-percent model. This may be compared with a growth in the labor force of 1.3 percent a year in the period between 1957--the last previous year in which unemployment approached 4 percent--and 1965. This increase in the rate is 10/The GNP estimates for 1965, used in deriving potential GNP for 1970, were preliminary. The annual revisions shown in the July 1966 Survey of Current Business were not incorporated in any of the estimates, nor in any of the tables showing 1965 GNP. However, the magnitude of the annual revisions are such that it is unlikely that any of the results would be changed significantly. 11/Sophia Cooper and Denis F. Johnston, "Labor Force Projections for 1970-80," (Special Labor Force Report No. 26), Monthly Labor Review, February 1965, pp. 129-40. 12/Sophia Cooper and Denis Johnston, op. cit., p. 140. 22 23 largely the result of the entrance into the labor force of the large number of persons born in the immediate post-war period who will reach working age during 1965-70. Another reason is the higher labor force participation rates for women. Applying the assumed unemployment rates to the projected civilian labor force gives the level of employment in 1970. The size of the Armed Forces is estimated separately. The projections assume that the conflict in Viet Nam will be over by 1970, but that defense expenditures and the size of the Armed Forces will be maintained at a level somewhat above the pre-Viet Nam level. In 1965, the labor force was below the level implied by the projec tions for the 1960-70 period. It is difficult to judge how much of this "shortfall" is transitory and how much of it reflects factors which would affect the trend in labor force participation rates over a longer term. Acceptance of the original labor force estimates for 1970 assumes that participation rates will return to the trend levels. On this basis, the 1.9-percent projected increase in the labor force from 1965 includes the acceleration required to make up the shortfall, in addition to the increases normally to be expected. The projected rate of growth of the labor force, excluding the shortfall, would be about 1.7 percent a year, still considerably above that of the previous rate (1.3 percent). The detailed employment projections, which are developed later in the models, are based on data consistent with establishment reporting systems which count jobs; the data thus reflect dual jobholding. In contrast, the labor force estimates are based on household interviews which count indi viduals, rather than jobs. An adjustment is made to the projection of the labor force in order to make it consistent with the establishment reporting system.13/ The establishment-based estimates of employment used in the pro jections are those developed by the Office of Productivity, Technology and Growth, BLS, as part of its program of productivity measures. The estimate of total employment, based on establishment reports, is derived by adding estimates of government employment, agricultural employ ment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, and domestics to BLS estimates of private nonfarm wage and salary employment. The difference between the labor force estimate of total employment and that based on the adjusted establishment series reflects both statis tical differences as well as differences due to dual jobholding. The 13/ cedures note in Monthly For a discussion of the differences in the labor force survey pro and the nonfarm establishment reporting system, see the technical any current issue of BLS periodical, Employment and Earnings and Report on the Labor Force. 24 adjustment factor has varied over the historical period. In the projec tions developed for this bulletin, it has been assumed that the difference between the two employment estimates will remain at about the level of the average difference for the past few years. The projections of hours of work and productivity use estimates for the postwar years which are prepared by the Office of Productivity, Tech nology and Growth. These are used as a statistical frame of reference, thus assuring consistency between historical data and projections of employment, hours of work, productivity and output.14/ These projections of employment, hours of work, and productivity are developed for broad sectors (i.e., government, agriculture and nonagri culture). This is done to take into account the fact that aggregate productivity may be affected by shifts in the relative importance of sectors which have different levels of productivity. The separate projections of labor force, unemployment, employment, annual hours per job, and productivity (output per man-hour) are combined to develop the estimates of potential GNP in 1970. Derived from these are the implied growth rates between 1965 and 1970 required to achieve and then maintain the rates of unemployment at 4 and 3 percent of the civilian labor force. Total employment, on an establishment basis, is projected to increase by 1.9 or 2.2 percent a year, depending on the unemployment assumption. The rates among the major sectors of the economy vary considerably. Fed eral Government employment is projected to increase only moderately--at about half the rate of increase of total employment. The moderate increase in Federal employment is consistent with the assumption regarding the end of the Viet Nam conflict by 1970. In addition, the projections of Federal Government programs developed in the final demand "bill of goods" stage imply that most of the increases in Federal Government expenditures are not for direct purchases of goods and services, including Federal employment. They are for grants to State and local governments for such programs as, aid to education, and manpower training or for transfer of funds to indi viduals, as under the social security programs. Federal Government employment would, therefore, be affected only moderately by the expansion of such programs as aid to education, antipoverty, and Medicare. 14/lrends in Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy, 1909-1958, Bulletin 1249, 1960. For the most recent information on indexes of output per man-hour, see release "Indexes of Output per Man-Hour for the Private Economy, 1947-1965," Office of Productivity, Technology and Growth, BLS, October 1966. 25 State and local government employment, on the other hand, is pro jected to continue to increase much faster than the average, as it has been doing for most of the postwar period. The projected increase in State and local government employment of 5 percent or more a year is based on a detailed study of the expected expansion in State and local government expenditures over the next 5 years. The details are discussed later1in the bulletin, when describing the projection of the "bill of goods" for State and local government. The 3-percent unemployment model allows for a somewhat higher rate of increase in State and local government employment than does the 4-percent model. This is based on the assumption that some increases in manpower training and antipoverty programs will be necessary to achieve and then maintain a 3-percent unemployment rate. Such programs would require some increase in State and local employment because of the expan sion in training staff. Also, in the case of certain programs such as Neighborhood Youth Corps, trainees are considered as State and local employees. The difference in State and local government employment between the 3- and 4-percent unemployment models represents only a third of the total difference of 1.2 million jobs between the two models. Most of the increased employment is assumed to be in the private sector of the economy. Employment in the agricultural sector is projected on the basis of a continuation of the postwar decline in employment for this sector. The rate of decline is somewhat reduced, however. Given the projected increase in total employment and the separate projections of Federal Government employment, State and local government employment, and farm employment, total private nonagricultural employment is derived as a residual. The projected increases for this sector are 1.9 and 2.1 percent a year over the 1957-65 period. The increased rate of employment reflects both acceleration in the growth of the labor force and reduction in the unemployment rate. Within the total private nonagricultural sector, the projected increase in employment varies by type of employment. Self-employed and unpaid family workers, for example, are assumed to increase at half the rate of total employment, continuing the past decline in this whole class of employment relative to wage and salary employment. The projections of annual hours per job are developed separately for each major sector.15/ Hours per person employed in the government sectors are assumed to remain the same as in 1965. Average hours in agriculture 15/Hours used are payroll hours or hours paid, which include paid holidays, paid vacations, and paid sick leave. 239-877 0 66-3 - 26 are expected to decline at about the rate for the postwar period, exclud ing the change for the last year or two which saw a slowing down in the decline in hours. Hours per job for the private nonfarm sector are expected to decline at about 0.3 percent a year. The decline reflects a projection of little or no change in manufacturing hours and a continuation of declines in the nonmanufacturing sector. In the 1963-65 period, average hours increased rather than followed the trend toward reduced hours. It is assumed, however, that average hours, which in 1965 already included substantial overtime in the manufacturing sector and increases in other sectors, will revert to stability in manufacturing and to continued reductions in non manufacturing. The much larger labor force being projected includes, by assumption, increased part-time employment among students and women. Both groups are traditionally employed in the large nonmanufacturing sectors of trade and services, which provide most of the opportunity for part-time employment. The trend of output per man-hour is the most difficult element to project. It reflects changes in technology, quality of the labor force, rate of capital investment, and capacity utilization. These factors in turn reflect many other elements in the economic, political, and social structure of the Nation. For the purpose of these projections, it is assumed that the trend in output per man-hour since 1957 would continue over the next 5 years. The 1957-65 period was chosen, because 1957 was the last year in which the unemployment rate was close to 4 percent. Thus, the distortions resulting from changes in capacity utilization are minimized. The rate of growth in output per man-hour during this period was 3.2 percent a year for the private economy.16/ Productivity increases in the agricul tural sector were considerably higher than the average. They are pro jected to continue their increase--about 5.5 percent a year--a more rapid rate than that of the nonfarm sector. The rate of change for the private nonfarra sector is projected at the past rate of 2.9 percent a year. The separate projections of the labor force, employment, annual hours per worker, and output per man-hour yield a projected growth rate of 4.3 percent a year, under the 4-percent unemployment assumption, and 4.5 percent a year, under the 3-percent unemployment assumption. Real GNP in 1958 prices is projected to grow by 1970 to about $750 billion under the first assumption, and to almost $760 billion under the latter assumption. (In 1965 prices, potential GNP in 1970 would be about $835 or $845 billion, depending on the unemployment assumption.) 16/In accordance with the conventions in the measurement of constant dollar GNP, output per man-hour for government is assumed to be constant, i.e., it is assumed that there is no increase in the productivity of gov ernment employees. 27 These projected rates of increase are annual averages for the remainder of the decade. The sustainable growth rate, estimated to be about 4 percent a year by 1970, would be lower because part of the increase is related to the reduction in unemployment rate from the 4.6 average in 1965 and making up the "shortfall" in the growth in the labor force. The projected growth rates are lower than those achieved over the past few years, but are still significantly higher than the actual growth rate of 3.7 percent a year over the entire post-war period It should be emphasized that the projected growth rates are based on a number of assumptions. If the labor force shortfall is not made up, the growth rate would be about 0.2 percent a year lower. If the decline in average hours is eliminated or reduced, the growth rate would be higher. Finally, the growth rate would be somewhat higher or lower depending on the assumption about the trend in output per man-hour 28 Table II-l. Labor Force, Employment, Annual Hours, Productivity, and Gross National Product Actual 1957 and 1965, and Potential 1970 Actual 1965-70 Item 1957 Total labor force (thousands)............................... Average annual. . rate of c h a n g e ^ Projected 1970 1965— ^ 3 percent 4 percent unemploy unemploy ment ment 1957-65 3 percent 4 percent unemploy unemploy ment ment 70.744 78.357 86.400 86.000 1.3 2.0 Unemployed.................................................. 2,936 3,456 2,507 3,326 1.4 -6.2 -.7 Employed.......................... ........ ................. 67,808 74,901 83,893 82,674 1.3 2.3 2.0 Employment: 1.9 establishment basis— ^ (thousands)............. 71,117 77,347 86,193 84,974 1.1 2.2 1.9 Gover n m e n t ^ ............................................... 9,756 12,003 14,718 14,301 2.6 4.2 3.6 Federal................................................... 4,531 4,560 4,795 4,790 .1 1.0 1.0 Military............... ................................ 2,786 2,720 2,850 2,850 -.3 .9 .9 Civilian................................................ 1,745 1,840 1,945 1,940 .7 1.1 1.1 5.0 State and local.......................................... 5,225 7,443 9,923 9,511 4.5 5.9 Private..................................................... 61,361 65,344 71,475 70,673 .8 1.8 1.6 Agriculture..... ........................................ 6,222 4,585 4,080 4,080 -3.8 -2.4 -2.4 Nonagriculture................ .......................... 55,139 60,759 67,395 66,593 1.2 2.1 1.9 Hours of work (annual average)— p r i v a t e ^ .................. 2,112 2,081 2,040 2,040 -.2 -.4 -.4 Agriculture......... ........................ ...... ........ 2,371 2,345 2,298 2,298 -.1 -.4 -.4 Nonagriculture.............................................. 2,089 2,061 2,030 2,030 -.2 -.3 -.3 Total man-hours (millions)— private......................... 129,619 135,969 145,806 144,272 .6 1.4 1.2 -2.7 Agriculture................................................. Nonagriculture............................................. GNP per man-hour (1958 dollars)— private— ^ .......... ....... 14,752 10,752 9,376 9,376 -3.8 -2.7 114,867 125,217 136,430 134,896 1.1 1.8 1.5 3.15 4.07 4.76 4.75 3.2 3.2 3.2 5.4 Agriculture................................................. 1.38 2.17 2.83 2.82 5.8 5.5 Nonagriculture.............................................. 3.38 4.24 4.89 4.89 2.9 2.9 2.9 Gross national product (1958 dollars)....................... 452.5 609.0 ^759.0 ^750.7 3.8 4.5 4.3 2.1 4.5 5.0 5.0 10.0 2.1 2.1 GNP (domestic).............................................. 450.4 604.5 754.0 745.7 3.7 4.5 4.3 Government, general...................................... 41.9 50.6 60.0 59.3 2.7 3.5 3.2 Federal........... ..................................... 21.5 21.6 22.8 22.8 .1 1.1 1.1 Military........................................... 11.1 10.9 11.4 11.4 -.2 .9 .9 Civilian............................................. 10.3 10.7 11.4 11.4 .5 1.3 1.3 Rest of the w o r l d ^ ................ ....................... State and local........................................ 20.4 29.0 37.2 36.5 4.5 5.1 4.7 Private.................................................. 408.5 553.9 694.0 686.4 3.9 4.6 4.4 Agriculture............................................ 20.3 23.3 26.5 26.4 1.7 2.5 2.5 Nonagriculture......................................... 388.2 530.6 667.5 660.0 3.5 4.7 4.5 1/ Preliminary estimate. 2/ Compound interest rate based on terminal years. 3/ The total civilian employment differs from that shown in table VI-1 and table VI-3 because of differences in the treatment of government employees. 4/ For consistency with measures of government output, estimates of government employment used are those developed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics. 5/ In accordance with the conventions in the measurement of constant dollar gross national product, productivity for government is assumed constant. Since no change in average hours is projected for this sector, the change in govern ment product is equal to the change in employment. 6/ Gross national product for 1970 shown here is as com puted but has been rounded to $760 and $750 for use as control totals for the various models. Rest of the world reflects U.S. income and product orig inating outside the United States. U SOURCE: Historical data on gross national product are from the U.S. Department of Comaerce, Office of Business Economics. All other historical data and projections are from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chapter III. Distribution of Potential Output Among Major Categories of Final Demand The projections developed in this bulletin are based on the assump tion that potential demand for end products and services by the various final demand claimants are exactly equal in total to the potential out put of the economy in 1970. This chapter describes how the total final demand may be distributed among the major categories of consumer goods and services, private investment goods, public goods and services, and net exports. In general, the composition of final demand is projected on the basis of a combination of assumptions and independent studies for spe cific final demand components. Because the assumptions are basic to an understanding of the projections, it may be useful to start with an explanation of these assumptions. Assumptions Some of the basic assumptions have already been mentioned. The major assumption is that the Viet Nam conflict will have been resolved by 1970 and that defense expenditures and the size of the Armed Forces will be reduced to a level somewhat higher than that which existed prior to the Viet Nam buildup. In the event of a large scale military build up, the resulting patterns of demand and employment would, of course, be significantly different. This is especially true for several of the defense-related Industries--ordnance, aircraft, and electronics and communications equipment, among others. It is further assumed that growth in the economy will be based pri marily on the expansion of consumption and investment demand and of State and local government expenditures. Federal Government direct purchases of goods and services are projected to expand only moderately. As previously stated, it should be noted that expenditures result ing from many Federal Government programs are treated in the national income accounts, and therefore in these projections, as expenditures by consumers (Medicare), and by State and local governments (highway construction). In general, the projections are based on the assumption of contin uation of past relationships, e.g., relationships of consumer expendi tures for specific items to the level and change in personal income, or extension of existing government programs to provide public services. The projections of demand are not based on a systematic analysis of national goals and what would be required to achieve these goals, e.g., achievement of minimum nutritional standards or elimination of substand ard housing. However, the basic assumptions of high rates of employment 29 30 and continued economic growth underlying these projections would imply gains in the attainment of minimum standards or goals.17/ It is also assumed that maintenance of growth rates consistent with high levels of employment would be implemented by appropriate fiscal and monetary policies designed to maintain adequate aggregate demand. In addition, continuation of specialized programs to provide training and retraining, worker experience, labor mobility, and employment in public service projects would be essential. Implementation of these special programs will involve the active participation of labor, management, non profit organizations, and agencies of Federal, State, and local government. It is assumed that Federal Government policy places more emphasis on expansion of specialized programs under the 3-percent unemployment model than under the 4-percent unemployment model. Expansion of these special ized programs will involve some increase in direct government employment (primarily State and local government), but most of the increase is ex pected to be in the private sector of the economy. Consistent with the assumption that the primary objective of the specialized programs is to facilitate employment in the private sector, the patterns of final demand in both the 4- and 3-percent unemployment models are similar. A moder ately higher level of employment in State and local governments is projec ted for the 3-percent unemployment model. One of the major uncertainties in the projections of final demand is the extent to which the unusually high rates of increase during the past few years for consumer durables, particularly automobiles, and for domes tic private investment for plant and equipment may be expected to continue. The substantial increases in demand for durable goods account in large part for the reversal of the previous sluggish growth in manufacturing employ ment. In order to explore the implications of changes in this dynamic component of final demand, several alternative assumptions have been devel oped. The basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models assume that by 1970, expenditures for consumer and producer durable goods will return to a pat tern based on past relationships. An alternative to the basic 4-percent unemployment model (high durables) assumes that the recent sharp increase in expenditures for consumer durables and capital goods will continue, but at a more moderate rate. This rate is still above that implied by past relationships, however. An additional alternative to the 4-percent unem ployment model (high services) assumes that, as a result of increased productivity of capital, capital expenditures will continue to increase, but at a lower rate than the increase in real output; therefore, capital 17/ For research on the achievement of national goals, see: (1) Leonard Lecht, The Dollar Cost of Our National Goals, (Washington, D. C., National planning Association, 1965); and (2) the section on "Manpower Requirements to Achieve National Goals" in the 1966 Manpower Report of the President, pp. 45-47. 31 expenditures for plant and equipment would decline as a proportion of GNP. This alternative model also assumes that the anticipated sharp increase in residential construction, postulated in the basic models, will be delayed somewhat and will only increase moderately by 1970. The slower increase in private domestic investment in this model is assumed to be offset by larger increases in consumer expenditures, primarily in consumer services and increased State and local government expenditures. Although the alternative projections are only applied to the basic 4-percent unemployment model in this bulletin, they can be considered as equally applicable to the basic 3-percent unemployment model. Based on the assumptions indicated above and on the studies of a num ber of the final demand categories, the projections of the major components of final demand in 1970, as shown in tables III-l to 3, are developed. These projections are as follows: Government expenditures. By 1970, Federal Government expenditures are projected to increase about $6.5 billion (in constant 1958 prices) above the 1965 level. This implies moderate increases for nondefense programs and a leveling off of military expenditures below the 1966 level, but still somewhat higher than the 1965 level. The projection of Federal nondefense purchases of goods and services is based in part on some of the long-run projections developed by the National Planning Association in a study for the Brookings Institution.18/ Federal expenditures for goods and services are projected to increase at a slower rate than the growth in total final demand. The result is that this component will decline from about 9.4 percent of real GNP in 1965 to about 8.4 percent by 1970. In contrast, State and local government expenditures for goods and services are projected to increase substantially faster than any other ma jor component of final demand. This reflects the rapid growth in services, particularly in the education area, required by an expanding and continual more urban population. As a result, the relative increase in State and local government expenditures for goods and services is expected to almost offset the relative decline in Federal Government expenditures for goods and services. The increase in State and local government expenditures would be from about 9 percent in 1965 to about 10 percent in 1970. By 1970, State and local government expenditures for goods and services are projected to be substantially higher than those made by the Federal Gov ernment. The projection for State and local government expenditures is somewhat higher in the high service (low investment) model than in the other models. 18/ Gerhard Colm and Peter Wagner, Federal Budget Projections in the Perspective of Economic Growth, National Planning Association, Studies of Government Finance, (Washington, D. C., The Brookings Institution, 1965). 32 The estimates of State and local government expenditures are based on an evaluation of the extent to which existing programs may be modified, extended, or expanded by 1970. This is based on a detailed analysis of each function performed by State and local governments, taking account of such specific factors as the effect of anticipated increases in school en rollment on education expenditures. The estimates of State and local government expenditures for goods and services are based on two separate but complementary approaches: one, an evaluation of functions for all State and local governments combined; the other, a much more detailed State-by-State approach. The first ap proach was developed by staff of the Bureau*s Division of Economic Growth and the second by a special study group cosponsored by the Council of State Governments and George Washington University.19/ The projections of expenditures by these different approaches yield approximately the same results. Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists of three items; expenditures for private residential construction, expenditures for private plant and equipment, and net change in business inventories. In the basic projections, private residential construction is projec ted to increase rapidly by 1970 to provide housing for the growing number of families and to meet the large demand for replacement of old units. Housing starts (single family housing and multiunit dwellings) are projec ted to increase from about 1.5 million in 1965 to about 1.9 million in 1970 This is consistent with the intermediate projection of housing starts for the 1965-75 decade, developed by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce.20/ Nonhousekeeping units (hotels, motels) are projected to increase even faster than housekeeping units. The rate of increase in total private resi dential construction is somewhat higher than for the economy as a whole. However, because housing starts have shown little growth for several years and because construction might not respond to increases in family formation until after 1970, the high service (low investment) model assumes a lower rate of increase than the basic model. As previously indicated, the projection of private nonresidential fix ed investment represents one of the most difficult areas in the entire set of projections. For several years, expenditures for this category have been increasing substantially faster than real output in the economy. By 1965, this component accounted for 10.7 percent of GNP (in 1958 prices), a somewhat higher ratio than that achieved in the capital goods boom of 1955-57. Information on expenditures for private nonresidential fixed in vestment during 1966 indicates that this relative increase will continue. 19/ This project was under the direction of Selma Mushkin, see Biblio graphy in Appendix. 20/ L. Jay Atkinson, "Long-Term Influences Affecting the Volume of New Housing Units," Survey of Current Business, November 1963, pp. 8-19. 33 There is considerable uncertainty, however, as to how much longer this can continue before increases in capacity exceed demand. Since there is so much uncertainty in this area, the projection for this category has not been limited to a single estimate. Instead, three alternative assumptions have been introduced into the models to test the implications of these alternatives on the structure of demand and employment. The basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models assume that private nonresidential fixed investment in 1970 will account for approximately the same ratio of total final demand as in 1965--10.7 percent. The high durable goods alternative to the basic 4-percent unemployment model assumes that the relative increase in expenditures for this category will continue for most of the remainder of the decade, but at a slower rate than that of the past few years. By 1970, the ratio of private nonresidential fixed in vestment to output (GNP in constant prices) is projected to increase to 11.5 percent--$6.5 billion more than in the basic model. Recent research at the Brookings Institution suggests a different alternative. Namely, that as a result of increasing efficiency in the use of capital, the proportion of output devoted to private nonresiden tial fixed investment may decline rather than increase.21/ In order to examine this possibility, the high service (low investment) alternative assumes that private nonresidential fixed investment will continue to increase, but at a slower rate than real output, and by 1970 will repre sent a smaller proportion of real GNP than in 1965. It is further assumed that this reduction will be offset by increases in consumer and State and local government expenditures, primarily for services. By 1970, under the assumptions of this model, the proportion of GNP devoted to private nonresidential fixed investment is projected to decline to 10 percent— about $5 billion lower than in the basic model. Thus, the implications of a range of almost $12 billion in private nonresidential fixed investment is explored in these models. The projection for this component is further distributed between con struction and producer durable equipment. This is done on the assumption that the long-run increase in the proportion going to equipment will con tinue, but at a diminishing rate. In 1965, investment in equipment repre sented 67 percent of this total; by 1970, it is projected to increase to almost 70 percent, a higher ratio than at any time during the postwar years. 21/ Bert G. Hickman, Investment Demand and U.S. Economic Growth, (Washington, D. C., The Brookings Institution, 1965). 34 The last category of investment, the change in inventories is projec ted on the assumption that it will increase sufficiently to maintain the ratio to real output it achieved in 1964. The year 1964 rather than 1965 was selected as a more appropriate base because of the special factors affecting inventories during 1965. For example, steel was stockpiled in anticipation of a steel strike. Also, the ratio of inventory change to GNP in 1964 is about the same as that for the entire period 1957-65. Net exports. The projection of net exports is based on a study by the Office of Business Economics which projects the major components of the United States balance of payments, including separate estimates of imports and exports. It is assumed that by 1970 international payments among the major regions of the world will be roughly in balance.22/ Net exports as a percentage of GNP are projected to increase from 1.0 percent in 1965 to about 1.4 percent in 1970. Personal consumption. The largest category of final demand, consumer expenditures, is initially derived as a residual. It is then evaluated to determine whether its relationship to total final demand is reasonable from the viewpoint of the past trend in its share of output. Because the esti mate of consumer expenditures is derived initially as the residual component, the share of consumer expenditures in the models varies, depending on the assumptions underlying the models. In general, the share of consumer expenditures in the basic models is approximately the same as that during most of the period since 1957--almost 65 percent of GNP. The high durable goods alternative, which includes a larger share for investment, has a somewhat smaller ratio of consumer ex penditures. Conversely, the high service (low investment) alternative has a higher proportion of GNP going to consumer expenditures. The difference between the alternatives amounts to $12 billion. The various models make it possible to explore the implications for employment of possible changes in both the level and composition of con sumer demand. The composition of consumer expenditures has already been mentioned in the earlier discussion of the alternative models. It will be discussed further in the next section which deals with the methodology used to develop the more detailed distribution of the major components of final demand. 22/ Evelyn M. Parrish, A Pattern of Balances of Payments between World Regions in 1970, Staff Working Paper in Economics and Statistics, No. 9, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, September 1964 (unpublished). 35 Table Ill-l. Gross National Product, by Major Components, Selected Years and Projected 1970 (Billions of 1958 dollars) Selected years^7 Projected 1970 Major component 1962 1957 1965^ 3 percent unemploy ment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High-7 durables High^ services Gross national product..................................... 452.5 530.0 609.0 760.0 750.0 750.0 750.0 Personal consumption expenditures...................... 288.2 338.6 394.1 492.6 485.5 478.5 490.5 Durable goods........................................ 41.5 49.2 65.4 83.1 81.9 89.7 82.2 Nondurable goods..................................... 138.7 158.4 177.0 212.1 209.0 208.2 209.8 Services............................................. 108.0 131.1 151.6 197.4 194.5 180.6 198.5 Gross private domestic Investment...................... 68.8 79.4 96.1 118.6 117.0 124.0 110.0 Fixed investment..................................... 67.6 73.4 88.9 112.6 111.0 118.0 104.0 Nonresidentlal.................................... 47.4 49.7 65.0 81.3 80.0 86.5 75.1 Structures..................................... 18.2 17.9 21.2 25.3 25.0 27.0 23.6 Producers' durable equipment................. 29.1 31.7 43.8 56.0 55.0 59.5 51.5 Residential structures........................... 20.2 23.8 23.9 31.3 31.0 31.5 28.9 Change in business inventories...................... 1.2 6.0 7.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Net exports of goods and services...................... 6.2 4.5 6.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 Exports.................. ............................ 26.2 30.0 37.3 45.2 45.2 45.2 45.2 Imports............................................... 19.9 25.5 31.3 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Government purchases of goods and services............ 89.3 107.5 112.8 138.4 137.0 137.0 139.0 Federal................................ ............. 51.7 60.0 57.2 63.7 63.5 63.5 63.5 State and local...................................... 37.6 47.5 55.6 74.7 73.5 73.5 75.5 Gross national product..................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Personal consumption expenditures...................... 63.7 63.9 64.7 64.8 64.7 63.8 65.4 9.2 9.3 10.7 10.9 10.9 12.0 11.0 Nondurable goods............................. ....... 30.7 29.9 29.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.0 Services............................................. 23.9 24.7 24.9 26.0 25.9 24.1 26.5 15.2 15.0 15.8 15.6 15.6 16.5 14.7 14.9 13.8 14.6 14.8 14.8 15.7 13.9 Nonresidentlal.................................... 10.5 9.4 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.5 10.0 Structures..................................... 4.0 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.1 Producers' durable equipment................. 6.4 6.0 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.9 6.9 Residential structures............. ........... . 4.5 4.5 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.9 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Net exports of goods and services...................... 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Exports............................................... 5.8 5.7 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 Imports........................... ................... 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Government purchases of goods and services............ 19.7 20.3 18.5 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.5 Federal...................................... ........ 11.4 11.3 9.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 State and local...................................... 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.1 Percent distribution Durable goods................ .................. . Gross private domestic investment...................... Fixed investment.................................... Change in business Inventories........... 1/ See table A-l for data covering 1950-65. 2/ Preliminary estimate. 3/ The high durables model assumes continuation of above average Increases In expenditures for consumer durables and fixed nonresidential investment. 4/ The high services model assumes a lower than average increase in consumer durables and fixed nonresidentlal invest ment with the difference made up by increases In consumer and State and local expenditures for medical and educational services. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals or 100 percent. SOURCE: Historical data on gross national product are from U.S. Department of Cosmerce, Office of Business Economics. Projections are by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 36 Table III-2. Changes in Gross National Product, by Major Components, Selected Periods and Projected 1965-70— 7 (Average annual rate o£ change) Selected periods Projected 1970 Major component 1957-65 1957-62 1962-65 3 percent unemploy ment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High-7 durables High— 7 services 3.8 3.2 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 Personal consumption expenditures. 4.0 3.3 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.5 Durable goods.................. . 5.9 3.5 9.9 4.9 4.6 6.5 4.7 Nondurable goods................ 3.1 2.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.5 Services.............. . 4.3 4.0 5.0 5.4 5.1 3.6 5.5 Gross private domestic investment. 3.9 2.9 6.5 4.3 4.0 5.2 2.7 Fixed investment................ 3.2 1.7 6.6 4.8 4.5 5.8 3.2 Nonresidential................ 3.6 0.9 9.3 4.6 4.3 5.9 2.9 Structures......... . 1.1 -0.3 5.8 3.6 3.3 5.0 2.2 Producers' durable equipment................... 5.1 1.7 11.4 5.0 4.7 6.3 3.1 Residential structures....... 2.1 3.3 0.1 5.5 5.3 5.7 3.9 23.6 38.0 6.3 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 Net exports of goods and services.......................... 1.5 -6.2 10.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 Exports............ •••.••••••••• 4.6 2.8 7.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Imports............. ........... 5.5 5.1 7.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Government purchases of goods and services...................... 2.9 3.8 1.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.3 Federal......................... 1.3 3.0 -1.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 State and local................. 4.9 4.8 5.4 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.3 Gross national product.......... . Change in business inventories.. 1/ Compound interest rates based on terminal years. 2J See footnote 3 in table III-l for explanaation. 3/ See footnote 4 in table I1I-1 for explanation. Chapter IV. Detailed Final Demand "Bill of Goods" The objective in this phase of the work is to distribute the aggre gate estimate of expenditures for each major component of potential GNP into detailed expenditures for specific goods and services. The distri bution must be consistent with the industry classification system and spe cial definitions of the input-output framework used in the models. The detailed estimates have been developed by projecting, wherever possible, the changing composition of the individual categories of goods and ser vices for each major component of final demand. The methods vary, depend ing on the particular component and the availability of historical data which can be used to develop functional relationships or trends. For some of the areas, several stages are involved in the estimating procedures. The historical data (primarily from the Office of Business Economics) used in evaluating past and prospective changes in patterns of expenditures vary from category to category in the level of detail available. In this report, these data have been used for the initial projection of the distri bution of final demand. The data were then adjusted and modified to be consistent with the input-output classification system (table IV-1). The detailed projections, stated in producers' value at 1958 prices are shown in a series of tables which also include the comparable expenditures for each item as shown in the basic input-output table for 1958. In addition, in order to provide estimates of final demand in full input-output detail for a more recent year than 1958, estimates for 1962 also have been devel oped and included in the tables. Before discussing demand by industry, certain industry conventions within the input-output structure should be mentioned. First, a number of industries are not industries in the usual sense. Three of the indus tries are synthetic or "dummy" industries. Such industries generally con sist of numerous commodities or services which originate in different in dustries. Their use is related to a common activity for which information on consumption is generally limited to the group as a whole. In such in stances, products made in different industries are channeled through a fictitious distributing industry. An example is industry 82, office sup plies, which "buys" and then distributes paper clips, typewriter paper, and similar office supplies through one central source. The two other dummy industries which provide a similar function are industry 81, busi ness travel, entertainment, and gifts; and industry 83, scrap, used and secondhand goods. To anticipate the discussion later in the report, purchases from in dustries 81 and 82 do not generate employment in these industries, but in the industries which actually produce those products and services which are channeled through the two dummy industries. Industry 83, the ficti tious scrap industry, is actually not used when tracing the impact of final demand in industry output and employment since this would imply that industries would generate output in order to produce scrap to sell to the scrap industry. 37 38 The treatment of government also requires some special explanation. Industries 78 and 79, Federal and State and local government enterprises respectively, cover governmental activities which are analogous to com mercial activities in that they sell a product or service. Examples are the Post Office and local transportation agencies. Industry 84 covers government employment involved in general functions of Federal, State, and local government (e.g., general administration, teaching, etc.). Industry 80, gross imports of goods and services, represents U.S. payments to foreigners for merchandise, services, and factors of produc tion. The treatment of imports in the input-output system has been dis cussed in chapter I. Industry 86, households, covers the service of domestics. Finally, there are three industries which have been modified in the present report from their treatment in the original input-output table. Industry 11, new construction, is a single industry in the input-output table. Because inputs vary considerably for different types of construc tion, and information is available on these input patterns by type of construction, the projections for new construction actually have been developed in considerable detail and then consolidated to a single in dustry to simplify the presentation in the report. The second modified industry is industry 74, research and develop ment. It is treated in the basic input-output table as analogous to a dummy industry which buys all research and development (R&D), wherever conducted. It then sells this package of R&D to purchasing industries. The R&D which is done on an independent commercial basis, e.g., in test ing laboratories, is also included in this industry. For the purpose of this study, the R&D industry is redefined so that it is limited to inde pendent commercial establishments. Host R&D is treated as a direct sale from the producing industry to the purchaser. For example, R&D on mili tary aircrafts by the aircraft industry is sold directly to the Federal Government. In the original input-output table, industry 85, rest of the world, covered U.S. income and product (including Federal Government interest receipts) originating in the rest of the world; travel receipts from foreign visitors, and personal remittances-in-kind to foreigners. The industry has been modified for this study to exclude travel receipts and personal remittances-in-kind. This adjustment affects the industry de tail of the personal consumption expenditures and export sectors. These adjustments are discussed in the appropriate sections. In general, the descriptions of methods used to develop the projec tions of final demand by industry for each component refer to the esti mates in the basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models. The distribution 39 of expenditures within each major component or subgroup under the high durable and high service alternatives is derived by applying the basic model distribution to the new level of expenditures for each component in the alternative models. The tables at the end of this chapter show constant dollar esti mates for 1958, 1962, and 1970 and also the percent distribution of the expenditures for each category of final demand. A primary concern in this study is the effect the changing composition of final demand and other factors have on the relative growth and industrial composition of employment. The discussion of the projections, therefore, emphasizes the relative change in the distribution of expenditures rather than the absolute dollar change. Government Expenditures The projections of government expenditures are based on analyses of factors affecting growth in the various governmental functions. Federal Government expenditures are divided, for this study, into those for defense (including space exploration) and nondefense. State and lo cal government expenditures are analyzed with reference to these func tions: education, highways, public health and sanitation, natural resources, and other categories. Each of these functions is initially distributed into three major items--employee compensation,23/ construction, and all other purchases. Employee compensation, in constant dollars, is the same as the projected change in government employment. This is consistent with the assumption in the national income accounts of no productivity change in the govern ment sector. The construction expenditures are further distributed by type of construction. The "other purchases" for each function are dis tributed into detailed requirements based on separate expenditure pat terns for each function. Federal Government. In 1962, total Federal Government expenditures for goods and services, excluding transfer payments to individuals and grants to State and local governments, amounted to $60.0 billion (1958 prices). In 1965, total expenditures had declined to $57.1 billion. By far, the greatest part of this total, about 85 percent, was used to sup port Federal defense and space programs (Department of Defense, National 23/ In the input-output system of accounts, employee compensation does not include the payroll of "force accounts" government employees working on new or maintenance construction. Their payroll is included as part of the new and maintenance construction expenditures by govern ment . ko Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Atomic Energy Commission). Only about 15 percent of the expenditures were for the myriad other activities of the Federal Government.24/ Between 1965 and 1970, Federal Government purchases of goods and services are projected to increase by about $6.5 billion, to a total of about $63.5 billion. About half of the increase is projected to be due to increased expenditures for defense and space programs, the other half for the remaining programs. A major part of the increase in nondefense expenditures is related to antipoverty and health, education, conservation, and welfare programs. This is reflected in increases for new construction and other purchases from the private sector; relatively smaller increases are due to in creased employment. Nondefense expenditures are slightly higher under the 3-percent unemployment assumption than under the 4-percent unemploy ment model. Most of the difference is related to education and health functions. The detailed projections of Federal Government expenditures for goods and services, classified by producing industry and converted to producers* value in 1958 prices, are shown in tables IV-2 and 3. Com parable data for 1958 and 1962 also are shown. By 1970, compensation of general government employees (industry 84), both civilian and military, would account for about 35 percent of total expenditures--about the same proportion as in 1962 but below that of 1965. New construction (indus try 11) is projected to increase from almost 6 percent of the total in 1962 to over 7 percent. For the remaining purchases, the projections reflect the long-term shift from aircraft to missiles, including the replacement of existing missiles with more advanced types. The relative decline in aircraft procurement is offset in part by increased expendi tures for missile and space components which are also made by the air craft industry (industry 60). Expenditures for missiles, space and other ordnance (including anti-missile missiles) made in industry 13, ordnance and accessories, are projected to increase as a proportion of total pur chases. Purchases from industry 51, computers; industry 57, electronic components; industry 59, motor vehicles; and industry 77, medical, educa tional, service and nonprofit organizations are all projected to increase as a proportion of the total. Purchases from the chemical industry (in dustry 27), a major supplier of materials to the Atomic Energy Commission, is projected to decline as a proportion of total expenditures. This re sults from the decline of this program relative to other Federal Govern ment programs. 24/ These estimates of Federal Government expenditures do not include current operating expenses of government enterprises such as the Post Office which sell their services or products and are considered part of the "pri vate" sector in the national income accounts. However, capital expenditures by government enterprises are included in general government expenditures for goods and services. kl Two special aspects of the estimates of Federal expenditures should be noted. One is the previously mentioned modification of industry 74, research and development, which has been modified so that the purchases by the Federal Government of research and development are treated as a direct sale from the producing industry to the purchaser. The 1958 estimates have been modified to reflect this change. Two, in the national income accounts, food and clothing supplied to the Armed Forces are con sidered a supplement to the pay of military personnel. The imputed value of the food and clothing are included as part of the compensation of gov ernment employees, classified in industry 84, government industry. The compensation of government employees is included in total personal income and the food and clothing supplied to the military are considered as part of personal consumption expenditures. The direct purchases of these items, therefore, are not shown as part of the Federal Government bill of goods, but they are included in personal consumption expenditures. State and local government. As previously indicated in chapter III, State and local government expenditures are projected to increase substan tially more than Federal Government expenditures for goods and services. The State and local government expenditures, which amounted to $55.6 bil lion in 1965 are projected to increase to about $73.5 to $75.5 billion by 1970. The $18 to $20 billion increase in expenditures, in constant dollar terms, would be about three times as much as the increase in Fed eral Government expenditures for goods and services over the same period. Expenditures for education, which accounted for almost 40 percent of all State and local government expenditures for goods and services in 1965, are projected to increase substantially over the next 5 years. This re flects the increase in enrollment at all levels of education and particu larly in higher education. The increase in expenditures for higher edu cation is due to a number of factors: (a) completion of the educational cycle as the children born during the early post-World War II years grow up and increasing numbers go on to college; (b) a higher proportion of students are expected to finish high school and enter college; and (c) a continuation of the shift in enrollment from private schools and colleges to public institutions. Public colleges and universities may be enrolling about 70 percent of all students in 1970, compared to less than 60 percent in 1960. A substantial part of the increase in higher education will be in junior or community colleges. Elementary and secondary school enrollment is also projected to increase, but not at as rapid a rate as the enrollment in higher insti tutions. The estimates do attempt to take account of the impact of the Head Start Program and the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965. Education expenditures are higher in the high service model by about $1.5 billion than in the basic models. 239-877 0 - 6 6 - 4 42 The next largest category of expenditures, highways, accounts for almost 20 percent of State and local government expenditures. This cat egory is projected to grow at a somewhat higher rate than in the past, as the Federal Interstate Highway Program continues through the remainder of the decade and into the early 1970*s. Expenditures for public health, hospitals, and sanitation, which account for about 9 percent of total State and local expenditures, are projected to increase at a more rapid rate, due in part, to the impact of Medicare and other Federal aid programs. Much of the recent increases in hospital and nursing home construction and operation has been in the private sector. More of this may be undertaken by the public sector dur ing the remainder of the 1960's, however. Here, too, the high service model implies a higher level of expenditures for this function than in the basic model. Expenditures for conservation and natural resources, including parks and recreation, are projected to continue the very rapid increases wit nessed during the period since 1958. Expenditures may be further accel erated if Federal aid programs in these areas are fully implemented. Functions such as police, fire, and other public administrative activities will Increase at higher rates than in the past. Population growth and the continuing rural-urban and suburban shift in population are the primary reasons. The projections of the various functions of State and local govern ment, distributed into purchases by producing industry and combined into a final demand "bill of goods," are shown in tables IV-4 and 5. About 45 percent of the projected total expenditures for goods and services in 1970 is for compensation of government employees. This is a decline from the 1962 and 1965 ratios, both about 47 percent. New construction would increase somewhat from 1962, to about 29 percent of total expenditures. Maintenance construction is projected to decline to 7 percent of the total. The remaining purchases would account for about 20 percent of the total. They are broadly distributed among a wide variety of industries, primarily food, furniture, printing and publishing, chemicals, petroleum products, motor vehicles, office supplies, and various services. These services include transportation, telephone, electricity and other utili ties, trade, real estate, and business services. The relatively high proportion of State and local government expend itures that would be accounted for by payrolls and construction (80 per cent) is in sharp contrast to Federal Government expenditures for these purposes, accounting for only about 44 percent of the total. ^3 The shift in relative importance from Federal to State and local government expenditures would result in an increasing proportion of total government expenditures for goods and services going to employee compen sation and construction. A smaller share would be accounted for by direct purchases from other major producing industries in the economy. The im pact of this shift is reflected in the employment projections discussed in the concluding section of the bulletin. Investment Residential Construction. Turning to the private domestic invest ment area, the projection of total residential construction is distribu ted into types of residential construction, such as single- and multi family dwellings, etc. Consistent with the projection of increased new family formation during the latter part of the decade, apartment con struction is projected to increase faster than single-family housing. Nonhousekeeping units (hotels, motels, etc.) will be the fastest growing element of private residential construction. Its growth over the latter part of the decade, however, will be somewhat reduced from that during the earlier years of the decade. Plant and equipment. Investment in nonresidential plant and equip ment is distributed into detailed components by a series of successive approximations in which the results of alternative approaches are brought into balance. This approach is followed because the projection of demand for different types of equipment and construction requires information on the relative rates of increase among various industries, each with dif ferent patterns of capital expenditures. The rate of growth of the steel industry may be quite different from that of the food industry, and each industry may require substantially different levels of capital expendi tures and types of equipment to provide for expansion of capacity. In the initial stage of the models, however, the relative changes in indus try output and their associated capital expenditures are unknown. The procedure followed is to develop initial projections of the various types of equipment, based on past trends and information on pro spective demand for some categories of equipment. These projections are modified later in the models when estimates of industry output require ments, with their implied differential growth rates, are derived. The growth rates are then used as the starting point for the derivation of equipment expenditures. The projections of equipment expenditures by purchasing industry are developed by applying the industry growth rates to estimated industry capital expenditures for equipment during the re cent period. The projected equipment purchases are then converted to output requirements from capital goods producing industries through the use of a special capital flow table developed by the Division of Economic Growth, BLS. The capital flow table shows the detailed distribution of bb capital purchases classified by producing and consuming industries, con sistent with the new input-output table.25/ As part of the procedure, the major changes in capital input patterns are projected to 1970. The derived projections of equipment expenditures, classified by producing industry, are then compared to the initial detailed projections of equipment expenditures. If there are substantial differences between the two, a new "bill of goods" for plant and equipment expenditures is developed. This is used as part of a revised sequence of input-output computations. The projections of capital expenditures developed in this bulletin reflect several rounds of such successive approximations.26/ A similar procedure is used in the development of projections of various types of private nonresidential construction. The detailed "bill of goods" for fixed private domestic investment, covering private plant and equipment expenditures and residential con struction is shown in tables IV-6 and 7. The equipment expenditures are classified by producing industry. The construction expenditures, although developed in some detail, are combined into an aggregate estimate for the purpose of presentation in the final demand tables. However, the detail is retained in the actual computations used to derive the requirements for various types of construction materials. The methods used are dis cussed in chapter V. Producer durable equipment. As indicated in chapter III, the dis tribution of total plant and equipment expenditures assumes a continua tion of the increase in expenditures for producer durable equipment rela tive to nonresidential construction. Within the equipment category, the largest share of expenditures will continue to be made up of motor vehi cles (trucks and business use of automobiles). The greatest increase relative to other types of equipment would be in the projected demand for computers and office machines (industry 51), which represents a continuation of past trends. Electrical transmission and distribution equipment (industry 53), photographic equipment (industry 63), and ser vice industry machines (industry 52) are also projected to increase relative to other categories. The relative increase in photographic 25/ The capital flow table will be published in a separate report which will provide a detailed description of the methodology used in developing the estimates. 26/ The projections of capital expenditures are based, in part, on preliminary estimates developed by Jack Faucett Associates, Silver Spring, Md. ^5 equipment is due in part to the growth in demand for photocopy machines. Service machine growth reflects expansion of merchandising through vend ing machines. Metalworking machinery, special industrial machinery, and general industry machinery (industries 47, 48, and 49) are projected, in the aggregate, to remain about the same proportion as in recent years. The modernization of railroad equipment (industry 61) is a major factor underlying the relative increase in this category of expenditures. Although increasing in absolute dollar terms, engines and turbines, (in dustry 43) and farm machinery (industry 44) are projected to follow the past trend and to decline as proportions of the total expenditures for equipment. Wholesale trade (industry 69) and transportation (industry 65), representing the margin between producers' and purchasers* value are projected to increase as a proportion of total expenditures for fixed investment, because of the shift in fixed investment toward equipment and away from construction, which has no trade or transportation margin. Nonresidential construction. The projections of nonresidential construction indicate that public utility construction and, to a lesser extent, commercial buildings (offices, stores, etc.) will be the main growth categories over the next 5 years. Within the utility group, elec tric utility and telephone construction are the main categories showing growth. Industrial plant is projected to continue to be the largest single category of nonresidential construction, but its growth will not be as rapid as in the past. Other nonresidential construction is projected to increase only moderately, partly on the basis of the assumption that, for the major category, education, there will be a shift toward construction by State and local governments. Inventory change. Change in inventories, classified by producing industry, is projected by assuming the inventory change for each indus try in 1962 moved with the output change derived by the model. The pro jected inventory change for each industry does not represent a signifi cant proportion of total output for the industry. For this reason, and because the method used is admittedly crude, the estimates are not shown separately; they are included in table IV-8, total private domestic in vestment . Personal Consumption By far, the largest component of final demand is personal consump tion expenditures--accounting for about 65 percent of total demand. Ex penditures for personal consumption are projected on the basis of over 80 consumption equations or "functions" developed for the individual items of consumption as shown in the national income and product accounts. The 46 consumption functions were developed by Prof. Hendrik Houthakker and Dr. Lester D. Taylor for the Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University.27/ The estimating equations are based on time series of con stant dollar expenditures for the individual items, converted to a per capita basis, covering the historical period since 1929. The demand function for each item of expenditure is designed to describe the in fluence of total purchasing power (as measured by per capita personal consumption expenditure in constant dollars on all items). It also measures any other relevant variables, in particular, the price of the item. In most cases, the demand function is dynamic in the sense that it allows the effect of a change in any explanatory variable to be dis tributed over time. Thus, a change in income may not have its full im pact on the consumption of housing services until a fairly long adjust ment period has elapsed. On the other hand, a change in income may have a strong temporary effect on the purchase of a durable good. This might occur when consumers attempt to bring their inventories of that durable in line with a new level of income. Thus, an increase in income will initially have a strong impact on durables and a relatively smaller one on other goods and services. Both of these phenomena can be captured by the same general form of estimating equation. This form is one in which per capita consumption of an item is a function of; (a) past consumption of the item, (b) the level and change in total consumption of all items, (c) past total con sumption, and (d) possibly other variables. This dynamic approach gives reasonably satisfactory results when applied to data since 1929 (exclud ing the war years). Total consumption of all items is, by far, the most important explanatory variable. Relative prices appear in about half of the equations. In addition, one or two other variables appear in some of the equations. It is important to note that projections from this type of behavioral model do not necessarily agree with straightforward trend extrapolations. The equations for each of the separate categories of consumer expenditures are balanced with the projected total consumer expenditures. This is accomplished by using the elasticities for each of the equations as the factor for prorating the difference between the sum of the indi vidual consumption equation and the projected total consumer expendi tures. The functions and projections derived from these equations have been reviewed and in some instances modified by the staff of the Division of Economic Growth. In addition, the projections have been adjusted for consistency with recent revisions in the historical series on personal consumption expenditures. A final stage in the estimating procedure is the conversion of the projections from groups of products and services to the input-output in dustry classification system. This is done by a set of conversion factors, 27/ Hendrik Houthakker and Lester D. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the United States, 1929-1970 (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1966). 47 developed by the Office of Business Economics as part of the input-output study.28/ When an item of personal consumption expenditures consists of a single commodity, the demand for that item represents demand from a single input-output industry. This occurs, for example, with the demand for electricity and gas which in both cases is directly transferable into demand for the output of an industry defined as "electric, gas, water and sanitary services." On the other hand, when an item is composed of a broad group of commodities, it is usually necessary to separate the demand for that category into demand from several input-output industries. To illustrate, the demand for the item "shoes and other footwear" must be distributed among demand from the leather products industry, the rubber products industry, and imported footwear. In some instances, the factors used to distribute demand for a cat egory have been modified to take account of the trend in the industrial composition of individual consumption items. For example, the producing industry mix of expenditures for food has been modified to reflect the trend toward more purchases of processed food and less direct purchases from the agricultural sector. In another instance, consumer demand for fuel oil and coal--both Included in one consumption item--has been ad justed to reflect the increased demand from the petroleum refining indus try and the decline in the demand from the coal mining industry. In estimating personal consumption expenditures, a different treat ment is used for personal remittances-in-kind to foreigners and expendi tures of foreign visitors in the United States for food, lodging, enter tainment, etc., from that used in the national income accounts and in the original input-output table. In the latter data, such expenditures are included in the commodity or industry detail of personal consumption ex penditures. However, such expenditures are also included in exports. To avoid double counting, these remittances and foreign visitor expendi tures are deducted in total from personal consumption expenditures. This lump sum deduction is shown as a negative entry in industry 85, rest of the world in the original input-output table. In this study, this deduction is made on an individual industry basis. This treatment eliminates the need for a single negative entry in industry 85. The 1958 data have been modified to reflect this change. The projections are developed initially in purchasers* value and then, as for all the other categories of final demand, they are converted to producers* value, based on the 1958 proportions of transportation and 28/ Nancy W. Simon, "Personal Consumption Expenditures in the 1958 Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business, October 1965, pp. 7-20, 28. 1+8 trade margins. The margins are aggregated and included as separate purchases from the trade and transportation industries in the final demand "bill of goods" for personal consumption. In some instances, the 1958 margins have been modified to reflect more recent information. The projections of consumer demand, classified by producing industry, are shown in tables IV-9 to 11. In order to put the projections of personal consumption expenditures into broader historical perspective, they have been aggregated to the level of detail usually shown in the national income constant dollar table for personal consumption expenditures. The table shows consumption expenditures for three major groups--durables, nondurables, and services-and 11 subgroups. The estimates of expenditures are in purchasers* value, whereas the input-output "bill of goods" is in producers* value, with the trade margins and transportation charges shown separately. The estimates (see table IV-10) cover selected years during the postwar period and the 1970 projections. The comments which follow are based on both the consolidated table and the more detailed ,fbill of goods" table for personal consumption expenditures. During most of the postwar period, as income per capita increased, the composition of consumption expenditures has been changing. An in creasing proportion of the total has been going to services, particularly housing. This is associated with a secular decline in the proportion accounted for by nondurable expenditures, e.g., food and clothing. Ex penditures for durables, the most volatile element in total consumer de mand, have varied, with no evidence of any long-term trend. Within the past few years, durable expenditures, particularly for automobiles, have begun to increase as a proportion of total consumption expenditures. In general, the basic model projections show a continuation of past trends. Expenditures for services increase from 38.5 percent of total consumer demand in 1965 to about 40 percent in 1970. Durable goods in crease somewhat, from 16.6 to 16.9 percent. The downward trend in non durable goods is projected to persist, declining from about 45 percent in 1965 to 43 percent in 1970. Within these aggregates, however, there are varying trends with important implications for differential impact on industry employment. The decline in the proportion of nondurable expenditures is the result of the projected drop in the share of food and clothing, which more than offsets relative increases in purchases of gasoline and "other nondurables." Major components of the "other" group are drugs and cos metics and semidurable house furnishings. These are expected to increase their share of total consumption expenditures. 49 The small increase in the proportion of durable expenditures also reflects the net impact of divergent trends. Automobile expenditures, although continuing to increase in absolute dollar terms, are projected to decline from the very high proportion reached in 1965. However, ex penditures for furniture, household appliances, color television sets, and other consumer durables are projected to increase sufficiently to raise somewhat the share of total durables. The services aggregate covers the most heterogeneous group of activ ities, including housing, transportation, medical services, laundries, and private education. The housing portion of the total, consisting of space rental values, is projected to increase. This is consistent with the increases in the home-oriented expenditures in the other expenditure classes. The small increase in the household operation portion obscures the substantial rise projected in the share of electricity, gas, and telephone, because it also includes a projected decline in the domestic service ratio. In transportation, the decline in the historical trend is expected to be reversed. Increasing air travel and certain automobileassociated costs included in services are expected to overcome the effect of declines in expenditures for other forms of transportation. An important element of the "other services" group is composed of several types of expenditures concerned with medical care. The projec tions for these generally follow the pattern of large increases in con stant dollar expenditures for hospital care and medical insurance in recent years. The share of personal services in total consumer demand is projected to decline, while expenditures for recreation and private education will increase. Because of the continued shift away from goods and toward services in the basic models, trade and transportation associated with the hand ling of consumer goods are projected to decline somewhat, as a proportion of total consumer demand. In interpreting the results summarized above, two considerations should be kept in mind: one, the observations refer to the changing share of individual items in total consumption expenditures--not to changes in the dollar level of expenditures; two, the differential changes reflect constant dollar estimates. It should be noted that the projections of consumption expenditures in the basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models are based on the esti mating equations for the 82 individual items of consumption. The con sumption estimates for the high durable and high service alternatives are derived by applying the consumption patterns within the three major groups-durables, nondurables, and services--developed in the basic models--to new levels of expenditures for the three groups in the alternative models. There is one modification, however. The high service model provides for more than proportionate increases in private educational and medical services. 50 Net Exports The detailed projections of exports and imports of goods and ser vices are derived by distributing into input-output industry detail the estimates made by the Office of Business Economics for seven major cat egories .29/ The distribution of estimates for the seven major categories into approximately 80 industries was made on the basis of 1958-65 trends and a review of the shifts in the relationship of specific imports and exports to domestic production during this period. The estimates for intermediate imports, however, are left undistri buted, because the input-output relationships contain coefficients for imports of intermediate goods. Therefore, these relationships generate their own requirements for imports. These derived import estimates are compared with the intermediate imports incorporated in the initial final demand ''bill of goods." If there are major differences, import coeffi cients or the level of projected imports may be modified. The computa tions are repeated until the generated and estimated imports are in balance. The 1970 projections of U.S. exports and imports suggest that the ratio of net exports (gross exports less gross imports) of goods and services to the gross national product would be moderately higher than those of most recent years. It would be about equal to the high ratio of 1964. Gross exports in 1970 may be expected to constitute about the same share of GNP as in 1965, while the import proportion may be lower. The anticipated greater expansion in exports than in imports is based on (a) the assumption of continued competitiveness of U.S. products in world markets, (b) the return to a relatively higher rate of growth in foreign countries than in the past few years resulting in increased imports from the United States, and (c) the continued shift in the United States to ward services and away from goods, requiring less imports. The merchandise and nonmerchandise components of the net export balance are likely to increase at about the same rate from 1965 to 1970. The net merchandise export balance may account for about two-thirds of the total balance in 1970, about the same as in 1965. The merchandise share of the overall balance, however, has moved steadily downward since 1959, and was at a low point in 1965. The net export balance on nonmerchandise transactions stems largely from increased royalty receipts and income from investments abroad. It has accounted for an increasing proportion of the total export balance in recent years and may be expected to hold at the 1965 share in 1970-about one-third of the total. 29/ Evelyn M. Parrish, op. cit., p. 34. 51 Industry structure of exports. The projected industry composition of gross exports indicates that products of manufacturing industries in 1970 may be expected to account for a greater proportion of total exports. It is projected to be nearly 50 percent, compared with about 45 percent in 1962. Computers, aircraft, and communications and scientific instru ments are projected to show the greatest rate of increase from 1962 to 1970. Engines and machinery, particularly metalworking machines may also bulk large in 1970 exports. Foreign sales of nondurable manufactured commodities and agricultural products and services are estimated to ex pand at a slower pace. Mining products are expected to consist of about the same share of total exports as in 1962. Industry structure of imports.30/ Changes in the 1970 projected industry composition of imports of goods and services from those in 1962 generally parallel those outlined for exports. However, imports of non durable manufactured products (except food) and durable commodities are also expected to expand significantly. Imports of agricultural products and processed food in 1970 make up a smaller portion of the total than in 1962. Among the durable manufacturing industry sectors, imports of auto mobiles and other transportation equipment, steel, radios, television sets, and lumber are expected to increase their share of total Imports in 1970. Advances in the nondurable sector (excluding food) are fairly widespread over a number of industries. Changes in the share of total imports for any individual industry are expected to be small. Payments to foreign freight carriers are expected to rise sharply from 1962 to 1970. They constitute the principal change anticipated in imports of services. Imports assigned to final demand sectors are estimated to account for a smaller share of total imports in 1970 than in 1962. The projec ted decline in purchases abroad by the Department of Defense, the Atomic Energy Commission (for uranium), and other Federal Government agencies more than offset the sizable expansion in personal consumption expendi tures on imported goods and services, including those on foreign travel. The reduction in defense expenditures abroad assumes that there is no major military action in 1970. 30/ Imports discussed here cover both types: (a) those "directly al located" to the consuming industry or final demand categories; and (b) "transferred" types assigned to domestic industries producing goods and services for which these imports are substitutes. 52 Import coefficients. The 1970 projections of input-output relation ships are discussed in the following chapter. The projections for import coefficients— industry requirements for imports per dollar of output-are discussed in this section, since they are related to the analysis of 1970 imports. The 1970 estimates of import coefficients are based on a review and analysis of past trends in the relationships of imports to domestic out put. Changes from 1962 to 1970 are generally small except in a few in dustries. The principal coefficient changes are described below. The projected lower import coefficient in the agricultural sector in 1970 stems from the sharp reduction in the use of foreign farm work ers. Imports of fishery products are estimated to constitute an increas ing portion of total supplies in 1970, but the rate of increase is expec ted to be somewhat less than from 1958-62. In the mining sector, imports of iron ore are likely to be a slightly lower share of total output in 1970 than in 1962 (but much higher than in 1958) as processed low-grade domestic ore becomes available in increas ed quantities. The requirements of the chemical and fertilizer mineral mining industry for imported sulphur, potash, and similar materials, how ever, are likely to be somewhat greater in 1970 than in the recent past. Projected increases in the relationship of imports to total output in the manufacturing area are significant in four industries— lumber, in dustrial leather, aircraft, and farm machinery. The higher import coef ficient in lumber (including plywood) is linked to the anticipated large rise by 1970 in residential construction, which accounts for about threefourths of total U.S. lumber consumption. Imports of lumber, continuing past trends, may be expected to constitute an increased share of total supply by 1970, as domestic requirements expand sharply. In industrial leather, the projected continued sluggishness of do mestic output led to greater reliance on imported supplies and to con tinued substitution of rubber, plastics, and other fabrics for leather. In addition, demand for imported specialty leather— calf, kip, goat, etc.— is expected to display further growth to 1970. Similarly, the higher import coefficient projected for the aircraft industry in 1970 reflects a moderate increase in imports and stability in the industry's output. Exports of aircraft, however, are projected to expand rapidly. The net export balance may, therefore, be consider ably higher in 1970 than in either 1958 or 1962. These foreign trade data relate primarily to civilian aircraft. However, nearly three-fifths of the output of this industry consists of military aircraft. Production 53 of the latter is expected to drop as military expenditures shift from aircraft to missiles. This is the primary factor behind the projected slight decline in output of this industry from 1962 to 1970. Thus, a higher import coefficient is based on imported civilian aircraft's re lationship to domestic output of civilian and military aircraft. The import coefficient for farm machinery in 1970 continues the slow upward trend evident from 1958-1962. Component parts from U.S.owned plants in Canada and the United Kingdom may be imported in in creased quantities for incorporation in final products produced domes tically. Net Export "Bill of Goods" The "bill of goods” for net exports is shown in table IV-12. The detailed entries reflect gross exports of goods and services from each producing industry. Consistent with the treatment of imports in the input-output table, gross imports for intermediate and final demand sec tors are shown only in the aggregate as a negative entry in industry 80, imports. Supplementary estimates of purchases by the final demand sectors of imported goods and services, such as bananas and other types of food, liquor, apparel, household appliances, foreign travel, etc., are shown in the aggregate as purchases from imports in the "bill of goods" for consumption expenditures in tables IV-9 and 11. Military expenditures abroad are shown in the aggregate as purchases from imports in the dis tribution of Federal Government purchases, tables IV-2 and 3. Intermediate imports of specific categories of materials, products, and services are generated by the models through the use of the import coefficients previously discussed. They are not shown separately in the tables, but are included as part of total imports. They are deducted from total exports in order to derive the net export estimate. In this study, as previously mentioned, the detailed export esti mates differ in their treatment of personal remittances-in-kind to for eigners and expenditures by foreigners in the United States, from that shown in the original 1958 input-output table. In that table, such ex ports are shown only in total in industry 85, rest of the world. In this study, such exports are distributed among the individual producing industries and deducted from industry 85. The original 1958 data have been revised to incorporate these modifications. 5^ Total Final Demand The last stage in the development of the final demand projections is the consolidation of the detailed projections for each component of final demand into a single "bill of goods" covering total final demand. The total "bill of goods" is shown in tables IV-13 and 14. The detailed final demand projections, as shown in these tables, are used along with the industry employment table to derive 1970 employment requirements. In addition to providing an important element in the whole sequence of projections leading up to the employment estimates, the final demand estimates are useful in themselves. They provide information on the changing structure of final demand. Analysis of changing patterns of final demand may be obscured, how ever, by the large amount of detail shown in the total "bill of goods" tables. In order to highlight the major changes in the composition of final demand, the detailed estimates have been aggregated into broad sector detail as shown in table IV-15. In addition, in order to provide some indication of developments since 1962 (the last year for which a detailed set of final demand estimates are available), preliminary esti mates of final demand for 1965 have been developed and are also included in this table. The summary tables include an adjustment for imports which needs to be clarified. GNP excludes the value of all imports. Final demand ex penditures for various goods and services, however, implicitly include the value of all intermediate imports embodied in final products (e.g., imported iron ore used ultimately to make automobiles). They explicitly cover those imports which are directly allocated to final demand (e.g., imported shoes). In order to balance out to the total GNP, the aggregate value of all imports is shown as a negative item at the bottom of the table. Finally, in evaluating the changes in the percentage distribution of final demand (see tables IV-14 and 15), it should be kept in mind that relatively small changes may represent substantial differences in absolute dollar terms. Specifically, with potential final demand in 1970 equal to $750$760 billion, an increase in an industry*s share of GNP by only 1 percent, e.g., from 10 percent in 1965 to 11 percent in 1970 would add $7.5 billion more to the final demand for that industry*s output than it otherwise would have been. An increase in the share of only one-tenth of 1 percent is equivalent to an extra three-quarters of a billion dollars. With this caution regarding seemingly small changes in the industrial distribution of final demand, what do the tables show? 55 Industrial composition of final demand. The change in the indus trial composition of total final demand reflects the combined influence of two factors: (2) the change in the relative importance of consumption, investment, and the other components of final demand; and (b) the shift in the composition of expenditures within each component of final demand. The analysis which follows, on the changing industrial composition of the total "bill of goods," takes into account both of these factors. The analysis is based primarily on the summary tables, because it pro vides a more recent reference point. It also highlights the major changes in the industrial distribution of final demand. Basic models. Direct purchases by final demand categories from the agricultural and mining sectors account for a very small proportion of total final demand. Their share is projected to decline even further by 1970. The decline in the share of final demand by these two sectors is due to the relative decline in the projected exports of agricultural and mining products as a proportion of potential GNP. In addition, both sec tors are affected by the continuing relative decline in direct consumer demand for the output of these sectors, particularly mining (coal). The construction sector has been declining as a proportion of final demand in the recent past. It has been estimated in the basic models, however, that construction will increase its share of final demand, from about 11.3 percent in 1965 to about 11.7 percent in 1970. This increase in the construction sector's portion comes largely from the projected increase in demand for new construction by the public sector. Private demand is expected to have only a moderate influence in the construction industry's share. The manufacturing share, which constituted over 38 percent of final demand in 1965, is projected to decline to slightly above 37 percent in 1970, distributed almost equally between durable and nondurable goods. The decline in the durable goods share is due largely to the relative decline in Federal Government purchases of durable goods and the relative decline in the change in durable goods inventories from the very high ra tio in 1965. Within the durable goods share of final demand, there are divergent changes in the composition of demand. (See table IV-15.) For example, the demand for office and computing machines, industry 51, and for radio, television, and communications equipment, industry 56, is estimated to increase substantially relative to other categories of durable products. The relative decline in expenditures for military aircraft is projected to more than offset the increase in civilian aircraft. The decline in the nondurable goods share primarily represents a continuation of the long-term decline in the proportion of the consumer dollar expenditure for food and apparel. 56 Transportation accounts for only a small part of total final demand, about 3 percent. Its share does not change in direct proportion to the change in final demand for goods, because it is related to the transpor tation of persons as well as goods. In fact, the share of transportation in all the models is about the same, because of roughly offsetting changes in personal transportation and the transportation of goods. On the other hand, activity in trade, which accounts for nearly 15 percent of total final demand, is almost entirely related to the hand ling of goods. In the basic model, it declines as a proportion of the total) corresponding to the reduction in the share accounted for by the demand for manufactured products. Communications and public utilities, finance and insurance, real estate (housing), and other services are all projected to increase their share. The primary reason being an increase in consumer demand for the output of these sectors. In the aggregate, the increase in these sectors is from almost a quarter of total GNP in 1962 to more than 26 percent in 1970. General government, which represents the constant dollar compensa tion of government employees (excluding Post Office, local transit oper ations, and other "enterprises” activities) is projected to continue to decline as a proportion of total final demand. This is consistent with the earlier projection (table II-l) that the compensation of general government employees (in constant dollars) would Increase about 3.2 to 3.5 percent a year between 1965 and 1970, whereas the GNP (total final demand) is projected to increase about 4.3 to 4.5 percent a year. Final demand imports as well as total imports are projected to decline from their relatively high proportions in 1965. Alternative models. The alternative models do introduce variations in the sector mix of final demand, particularly in construction; durable manufacturing; trade; finance, insurance and real estate; and other ser vices (which include personal and business services, private educational and medical services). The high durable alternative assumes continuation, with some modera tion, of the recent high rates of increase for consumer durables and in vestment in plant and equipment. Thus, in this model, the greatest vari ation from the basic 4-percent model would be in durable goods manufac turing. The difference between the models (18.4 percent for the basic model compared with 19.5 percent for the alternative) amounts to a full percentage point of final demand. This is equivalent to about $7.5 bil lion or an average annual rate of increase between 1965 and 1970 of 3.7 percent a year in the basic 4-percent model to 4.9 percent a year in the high durable model. 57 The shares of construction and trade are also increased, but pro portionately less than for durable manufacturing. The increase for construction is dampened by the fact that residential construction and construction expenditures by government are kept at the same levels in the basic 4-percent and high durable models. The increase in the share for trade is also moderated since trade involves the handling of both durable and nondurable goods, even though, in this instance, the share of nondurable goods remains the same in both models. The increases for construction, durable manufacturing, and trade in the high durable model are offset by relative declines in the share of final demand for the output of communications and public utilities, fi nance and insurance, real estate (primarily housing), and other services. Transportation has about the same share, resulting from offsetting changes in the transportation of goods and of persons. The government constant dollar payroll share increases somewhat in the high service model, with all the increase in State and local govern ment . The high service model assumes a relative decline in investment in plant and equipment and relative increases in services. Consumer dura bles are assumed to maintain about the same share as in the basic model. The pattern of demand under the high service model reduces the construc tion and durable manufacturing proportions considerably below the high durable model. However, these proportions are only moderately below those of the basic model. Trade is also reduced relative to the high durable model, but it remains about the same proportion as in the basic model. This is due to the fact that consumer durables are not reduced below their share in the basic model, and nondurable manufacturing maintains a stable proportion. The major increases In services are in private medical and educa tional services. There are relatively smaller increases in communica tions and public utilities, housing, and public educational and medical services. 239-877 0 - 6 6 - 5 58 Table IV-1. Industry number and title AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY, AND FISHERIES: 1 Livestock and livestock products........ 2 Other agricultural products 3 Forestry and fishery products............... 4 Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services.. MINING: 5 Iron and ferroalloy ores raining............. 6 Nonferrous metal ores mining................ 7 Coal mining................................... 8 Crude petroleum and natural g a s............. 9 Stone and 'clay mining and quarrying......... 10 Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining..... CONSTRUCTION: 11 New construction............................. 12 Maintenance and repair construction......... MANUFACTURING: Ordnance and accessories..................... Food and kindred products.................... Tobacco manufactures......................... Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills. 17 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings. 18 Apparel....................................... 13 14 15 16 Industry Numbering for the 1958 Input-Output Study Related SIC codes (1957 edition) 013,part 014, 0193,part 02, part 0729 011,012,part 014,0192,0199, part 02 074,081,082, 084,086,091 071,0723,part 0729,085,098 1011,106 102-105,108, 109 11,12 1311,1321 141,142,144, 145,148,149 147 19 20 21 28 29 30 31 32 33 265 27 281(except alumina part of 2819), 286,287,289 282 283,284 285 29 30 311,312 35 Glass and glass products..................... 36 Stone and clay products...................... 37 Primary iron and steel manufacturing........ 38 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.... 39 Metal containers............................. 40 Heating,plumbing,and fabricated structural metal products. 41 Screw machine products,bolts,n u t s ,etc., and metal stampings. 42 Other fabricated metal products............. 43 Engines and turbines......................... 44 Farm machinery and equipment................ 45 Construction,mining,oil field machinery and equipment 46 Materials handling machinery and equipment.. 59 60 61 62 63 65 66 67 68 69 FINANCE,INSURANCE.AND REAL ESTATE: 70 Finance and insurance.................. 71 Real estate and rental................. SERVICES: 72 Hotels and lodging places;personal and repair services.except automobile repair. 73 Business services. 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 31(except 311, 312) 321-323 324-329 331,332,3391, 3399 2819(alumina o n ly), 333-336,3392 3411,3491 343,344 81 82 83 84 85 86 Research and development............ ...... Automobile repair and services............ Amusements.................................. Medical.educational services and nonprofit organizations. GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES: Federal Government enterprises............ State and local government enterprises.... IMPORTS: Gross imports of goods and services...... DUMMY INDUSTRIES: Business travel,entertainment,and gifts... Office supplies............................ Scrap, used and secondhand goods.......... SPECIAL INDUSTRIES: Government industry........................ Rest of the world................. ........ Household industry......................... Related SIC codes (1957 edition) 354 355 356 359 357 358 361,362 363 364 365,366 367 369 371 372 373-375,379 381,382,384, 387 383,385,386 39(except 3992) 40-42,44-47 481,482,489 483 49 5 0 (except m a n ufacturers sales offices), 52-59,part 7399 60-64,66,67 6 5 (except 6541 and part 6561) 70,72,76 (except 7694 and 7699) 6541,73(except 7361,7391 and part 7399), 7694,7699,81, 89(except 8921) 75 78,79 0722,7361,80, 82,84,86,8921 87 Inventory valuation adjustment................... 345,346 342,347-349 (except 3491) 351 352 3531-3533 3534-3537 NOTE: The industry titles in this table are full and complete titles of the respective sectors in the 1958 Office of Business Economics input-output system and are consistent 54 55 56 57 58 Metalworking machinery and equipment......... Special industry machinery and equipment.... General industrial machinery and equipment... Machine-shop products......................... Office,computing and accounting machines..... Service industry machines........ .......... . Electric transmission and distribution equip ment,and electrical industrial apparatus. Household appliances.......................... Electric lighting and wiring equipment....... Radio,television,and communication equipment. Electronic components and accessories.... . Miscellaneous electrical machinery.equipment and supplies. Motor vehicles and equipment.... ............ Aircraft and parts............................ Other transportation equipment............... Professional,scientific,and controlling instruments and supplies. Optical,ophthalmic,and photographic equip ment and supplies. Miscellaneous manufacturing................... TRANSPORTATION.COMMUNICATION.ELECTRIC, GAS,SANITARY SERVICES: Transportation and warehousing............... Communications,except radio and television broadcasting. Radio and television broadcasting............ Electric,g a s ,w a t e r ,and sanitary services.... WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE: Wholesale and retail trade.................... 221-224,226, 228 227,229 19 20 21 22 23 24 Plastics and synthetic materials............ Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations..... Paints and allied products.................. Petroleum refining and related industries... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.. Leather tanning and industrial leather products. 34 Footwear and other leather products......... 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 64 138,part 15, part 16,part 17,part 6561 Part 15,part 16,part 17 225,23(except 239),3992 239 2 4 (except 244) 244 251 25(except 251) 2 6 (except 265) Miscellaneous fabricated textile products... Lumber and wood products,except containers.. Wooden containers............................ Household furniture.......................... Other furniture and fixtures................ Paper and allied products,except containers and boxes. 25 Paper board containers and boxes..... ...... 26 Printing and publishing.......... ........... 27 Chemicals and selected chemical products.... Industry number and title with the sectors in the Interagency Growth Project. In other tables in this report, however, some sector titles have been shortened for space and presentation purposes. 59 Table IV-2. Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 -1 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 2/ durables High 3/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... -3 5 8 8 8 8 2. Other agricultural products........................... 1,073 205 11 11 11 11 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... -137 -107 -250 -250 -250 -250 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... 45 38 71 71 71 71 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... 192 283 200 196 196 196 7. Coal mining............................................ - 56 45 45 45 45 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... 1 - - - - - 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. 10 - - - - - 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... 11 2 3 3 3 3 11. New construction....................................... 3,388 3,448 4,701 4,701 4,701 4,701 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. 1,081 1,204 1,504 1,504 1,504 1,504 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. 3,329 3,824 4,770 4,770 4,770 4,770 14. Food and kindred products............................. 55 269 381 372 372 372 15. Tobacco manufactures.................................. - - - - - - 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s ..... 51 34 34 34 34 34 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... 5 10 10 10 10 10 18. Apparel................................................ 41 71 104 103 103 103 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ 103 77 75 74 74 74 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 21. Wooden containers...................................... 2 12 13 13 13 13 22. Household furniture.................................... 25 42 48 48 48 48 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... 26 69 83 81 81 81 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... 72 54 69 67 67 67 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... 5 88 27 27 27 27 26. Printing and publishing............................... 92 176 204 202 202 202 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. 824 678 570 567 567 567 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... 13 32 6 6 6 6 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. 150 222 260 252 252 252 30. Paints and allied products............................ 3 13 25 23 23 23 912 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 122 31. Petroleum refining and related Industries............ 745 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... 130 70 122 122 122 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. 23 69 13 12 12 12 35. Glass and glass products.............................. 3 - - - - - 36. Stone and clay products............................... 5 3 4 4 4 4 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. 118 116 114 113 113 113 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. 343 46 45 44 44 44 39. Metal containers....................................... 18 20 21 21 21 21 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 17 304 324 324 324 324 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... 94 79 100 97 97 97 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... 132 194 219 218 218 218 233 43. Engines and turbines................................... 288 220 234 233 233 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... 17 11 12 12 12 12 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... 84 143 128 127 127 127 See footnotes at end of table. 6o Table IV-2. Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 - 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 2/ durables High 3/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... 139 144 128 128 128 128 47. Metal working machinery and equipment................ 273 227 263 262 262 262 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............. 33 35 25 24 24 24 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... 203 237 203 203 203 203 50. Machine shop products.................................. 44 51 38 38 38 38 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 87 212 344 344 344 344 52. Service industry machines............................. 73 34 38 37 37 37 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......... 351 245 240 240 240 240 54. Household appliances................................... 171 17 19 19 19 19 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... 89 19 20 12 12 12 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ 1,770 3,190 3,772 3,771 3,771 3,771 57. Electronic components and accessories................ 375 524 635 635 635 635 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 113 62 66 65 65 65 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 490 562 831 826 826 826 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... 8,047 8,456 7,892 7,892 7,892 7,892 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 655 943 976 974 974 974 62. Scientific and controlling instruments............... 658 815 767 762 762 762 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment....... 168 123 140 140 140 140 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... 41 57 37 36 36 36 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 1,439 1,834 1,700 1,693 1,693 1,693 425 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. 169 354 431 425 425 67. Radio and television broadcasting..................... - 3 2 2 2 2 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... 348 486 539 535 535 535 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 645 989 1,120 1,113 1,113 1,113 70. Finance and insurance................................. 1 30 46 46 46 46 71. Real estate and rental................................ 112 621 713 708 708 708 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... 246 297 372 364 364 364 73. Business services...................................... 492 1,019 1,034 1,032 1,032 1,032 74. Research and development.............................. 372 344 390 390 390 390 75. Automobile repair and services........................ 129 108 151 148 148 148 76. Amusements............................................. 18 40 52 52 52 52 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 654 697 1,209 1,209 1,209 1,209 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ 56 49 62 60 60 60 79. State and local government enterprises............... 113 210 255 247 247 247 80. Gross Imports of goods and services.................. 2,717 2,799 2,430 2,430 2,430 2,430 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ 74 Ill Ill 109 109 109 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... 117 196 - - - - 84. Government Industry.................................... 19,951 21,184 22,014 21,987 21,987 21,987 85. Rest of the world Industry............................ -307 -895 -750 -750 -750 -750 86. Household Industry..................................... - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - - Total................................................. 53,594 60,010 63,650 63,500 63,500 63,500 Federal Government have been changed to conform with the treat ment of research and development (1962 and 1970). 2/ The high durable model assumes continuation of above average Increases In expenditures for consumer durables and fixed nonresidentlal Investment. The high service model assumes a lower than average Increase In consumer durables and fixed nonresidentlal Invest ment with the difference made up by Increases In consumer and 3/ NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 61 Table IV-3. Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products...................... -.01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 2. Other agricultural products........................... 2.00 .34 .02 .02 .02 .02 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... -.26 -.18 -.39 -.39 -.39 -.39 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... .08 .06 .11 .11 .11 .11 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... .36 .47 .31 .31 .31 .31 7. Coal mining............................................ - .09 .07 .07 .07 .07 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... - - - - - - 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. .02 - - - - - 10. Chemical and fertiliser mineral m ining............... .02 - - - - - 11. New construction....................................... 6.32 5.75 7.39 7.40 7.40 7.40 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. 2.02 2.01 2.36 2.37 2.37 2.37 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. 6.21 6.37 7.49 7.51 7.51 7.51 14. Food and kindred products............................. .10 .45 .60 .59 .59 .59 15. Tobacco manufactures................................... - - - - - - 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s ..... .10 .06 .05 .05 .05 .05 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 18. Apparel................................................. .08 .12 .16 .16 .16 .16 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ .19 .13 .12 .12 .12 .12 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 21. Wooden containers...................................... - .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 22. Household furniture.................................... .05 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... .05 .11 .13 .13 .13 .13 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... .13 .09 .11 .11 .11 .11 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... .01 .15 .04 .04 .04 .04 26. Printing and publishing........... .................... .17 .29 .32 .32 .32 .32 27. Chemicals and selected cheaiical products............. 1.54 1.13 .90 .89 .89 .89 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... .02 .05 .01 .01 .01 .01 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. .28 .37 .41 .40 .40 .40 30. Paints and allied products............................ .01 .02 .04 .04 .04 .04 31. Petroleum refining and related industries............ 1.39 1.52 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.63 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... .24 .12 .19 .19 .19 .19 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. .04 .11 .02 .02 .02 .02 35. Glass and glass products.............................. .01 - - - - - 36. Stone and clay products............................... .01 - .01 .01 .01 .01 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. .22 .19 .18 .18 .18 .18 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. .64 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 39. Metal containers....................................... .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... .03 .51 .51 .51 .51 .51 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... .18 .13 .16 .15 .15 .15 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... .25 .32 .34 .34 .34 .34 43. Engines and turbines................................... .54 .37 .37 .37 .37 .37 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... .03 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... .16 .24 .20 .20 .20 .20 See footnotes at end of table. 62 Table IV-3. Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model 1/ High durables High 2/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... .26 .24 .20 .20 .20 .20 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. .51 .38 .41 .41 .41 .41 48. Special Industry machinery and equipment............. .06 .06 .04 .04 .04 .04 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... .38 .39 .32 .32 .32 .32 50. Machine shop products................................. .08 .08 .06 .06 .06 .06 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ .16 .35 .54 .54 .54 .54 52. Service Industry machines............................. .14 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 53. Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.......... .65 .41 .38 .38 .38 .38 54. Household appliances................................... .32 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... .17 .03 .03 .02 .02 .02 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ 3.30 6.32 5.93 5.94 5.94 5.94 1.00 57. Electronic components and accessories................ .70 .87 1.00 1.00 1.00 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... .21 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... .91 .94 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.30 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... 15.01 14.09 12.40 12.43 12.43 12.43 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 1.22 1.57 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 62. Scientific and controlling instruments............... 1.23 1.36 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.20 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... .31 .20 .22 .22 .22 .22 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... .08 .09 .06 .06 .06 .06 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 2.69 3.06 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.67 .67 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. .32 .59 .68 .67 .67 67. Radio and television broadcasting.................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... .65 .81 .85 .84 .84 .84 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 1.20 1.65 1.76 1.75 1.75 1.75 70. Finance and insurance................................. - .05 .07 .07 .07 .07 1.11 71. Real estate and rental................................ .21 1.03 1.12 1.11 1.11 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... .46 .49 .58 .57 .57 .57 73. Business services...................................... .92 1.70 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.63 74. Research and development.............................. .69 .57 .61 .61 .61 .61 75. Automobile repair and services........................ .24 .18 .24 .23 .23 .23 76. Amusements........................ ..................... .03 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 1.22 1.16 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 .09 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ .10 .08 .10 .09 .09 79. State and local government enterprises............... .21 .35 .40 .39 .39 .39 80. Gross Imports of goods and services.................. 5.07 4.66 3.82 3.83 3.83 3.83 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ .14 .18 .17 .17 .17 .17 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... .22 .33 - - - - 84. Government Industry.................................... 37.23 35.30 34.59 34.63 34.63 34.63 85. Rest of the world Industry............................ -.57 -1.49 -1.18 -1.18 -1.18 -1.18 86. Household industry..................................... - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - - Total................................................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1/ 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 63 Table IV-4. Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 3 percent unemployment 1962 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... 11 15 27 27 27 27 2. Other agricultural products........................... 27 19 35 35 35 35 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... - - 1 1 1 1 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... -68 -86 -195 -195 -195 -195 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... - - - - - - 61 66 118 115 115 115 - - - - - - 7. Coal mining............................................ 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. -12 -6 -18 -18 -18 -18 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... 12 6 18 18 18 18 11. New construction....................................... 12,069 13,387 21,975 21,475 21,475 22,315 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. 3,339 3,871 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. 4 7 13 13 13 13 14. Food and kindred products............................. 272 304 578 569 569 569 15. Tobacco manufactures.................................. - - 1 1 1 1 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s ..... 9 10 18 18 18 18 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... 1 1 2 2 2 2 18. Apparel................................................. 92 116 216 212 212 212 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ - 1 1 1 1 1 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... 1 1 2 1 1 1 21. Wooden containers...................................... - 1 1 1 1 1 22. Household furniture.................................... 57 94 166 162 162 169 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... 126 226 342 337 337 354 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... 6 4 10 10 10 10 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... - - - - - - 26. Printing and publishing............................... 173 204 475 467 467 501 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. 242 322 606 600 600 637 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... - - - - - - 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. 179 189 327 326 326 379 30. Paints and allied products........... . - - - - ' - 31. Petroleum refining and related industries............ 382 549 1,060 1,040 1,040 1,040 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... 75 129 242 235 235 235 33. Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products...... ........... 2 2 3 3 3 3 35. Glass and glass products.............................. - - - - - 11 36. Stone and clay products............................... 4 6 11 11 11 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. 1 2 3 3 3 3 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. - - - - - - 39. Metal containers....................................... - - - - - - 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... - - - - - - 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... 5 4 9 9 9 9 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... 46 64 106 104 104 117 43. Engines and turbines.................................. 3 6 11 11 11 11 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... 17 30 43 43 43 56 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... 21 16 40 40 40 40 See footnotes at end of table 6k Table IV-4. Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 3 percent unemployment 1962 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... 50 70 107 105 105 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. 5 11 19 19 19 19 48. Special Industry machinery and equipment............. 30 60 92 90 90 90 132 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... 5 9 14 13 13 13 50. Machine shop products................................. 35 50 76 74 74 103 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 89 214 240 234 234 371 52. Service industry machines............................. 21 38 64 63 63 63 53. Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.......... 5 10 18 18 18 18 54. Household appliances................................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... 8 13 18 18 18 18 62 56 130 128 128 128 - - - - - - 56. Radio, television and coonsinlcation equipment........ 57. Electronic components and accessories........... . 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 33 48 69 68 68 94 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 438 621 1,098 1,078 1,078 1,078 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... - - - - - - 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 38 79 135 135 135 135 62. Scientific and controlling lnstruaients............... 86 119 202 201 201 220 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... 15 29 38 37 37 51 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... 179 274 463 452 452 452 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 402 406 826 809 809 891 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. 190 263 493 481 481 481 67. Radio and television broadcasting..................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... 486 473 947 921 921 921 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 183 320 602 592 592 566 70. Finance and insurance.................................. 191 210 447 437 437 437 71. Real estate and rental................................ 233 423 742 722 722 722 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... 87 -17 128 127 127 127 73. Business services...................................... 555 744 1,339 1,316 1,316 1,386 74. Research and development.............................. - - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services........................ 83 134 255 249 249 249 76. Amusements............................................. -44 -98 -79 -77 -77 -77 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 311 232 428 428 428 508 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ 67 105 184 179 179 179 79. State and local government enterprises............... 6 12 21 21 21 21 80. Gross imports of goods and services.................. 3 4 8 8 8 8 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ 132 220 381 371 371 371 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... 342 474 732 732 732 732 84. Government industry.................................... 19,078 22,299 33,214 32,772 32,772 33,300 85. Rest of the world industry............................ - - - - - - 86. Household industry..................................... - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - - Total................................................. 40,564 47,466 74,700 73,500 73,500 75,500 1/ 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual Items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Comswrce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 65 Table IV-5. Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products...................... .03 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 2. Other agricultural products........................... .07 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... - - — - - - 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... -.17 -.18 -.26 -.27 -.27 -.26 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... - - - - - - 7. Coal mining............................................ .15 .14 .16 .16 .16 .15 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... - - - - - - 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. -.03 -.01 -.02 -.02 -.02 -.02 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... .03 .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 11. New construction....................................... 29.75 28.20 29.42 29.22 29.22 29.56 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. 8.23 8.16 6.69 6.80 6.80 6.62 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. .01 .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 14. Food and kindred products............................. .67 .64 .77 .77 .77 .75 15. Tobacco................................................ - - - - - - 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls..... .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... - - - - - - 18. Apparel................................................ .23 .24 .29 .29 .29 .28 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ - - - - - - 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... - - - - - - 21. Wooden containers...................................... - - - - - - 22. Household furniture.................................... .14 .20 .22 .22 .22 .22 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... .31 .48 .46 .46 .46 .47 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... - - - - - - 26. Printing and publishing............................... .43 .43 .64 .64 .64 .66 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. .60 .68 .81 .82 .82 .84 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... - - - - - - 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. .44 .40 .44 .44 .44 .50 30. Paints and allied products............................ - - - - - - 31. Petroleum refining and related industries............ .94 1.16 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.38 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... .18 .27 .32 .32 .32 .31 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. - - - - - - 35. Glass and glass products.............................. - - - - - - 36. Stone and clay products............................... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. - - - - - - 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. - - - - - - 39. Metal containers....................................... - - - - - - 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... - * - - - - 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... .11 .13 .14 .14 .14 .15 43. Engines and turbines.................................. .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... .04 .06 .06 .06 .06 .07 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... .05 .03 .05 .05 .05 .05 See footnotes at end of table. 66 Table IV-5. Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 1958 Industry number and title 1962 3 percent unemployment . 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... .12 .15 .14 .14 .14 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. .01 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............. .07 .13 .12 .12 .12 .12 .17 49. General industrial machinery and equipment........... .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 50. Machine shop products................................. .09 .11 .10 .10 .10 .14 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ .22 .45 .32 .32 .32 .49 52. Service industry machines............................. .05 .08 .09 .09 .09 .08 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......... .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 54. Household appliances................................... - - - - - - 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... .02 .03 .02 .02 .02 .02 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ .15 .12 .17 .17 .17 .17 57. Electronic components and accessories................ - - - - - - 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... .08 .10 .09 .09 .09 .12 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 1.08 1.31 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.43 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... - - - - - - 61. Other transportation equipment........................ .09 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 62. Scientific and controlling instruments............... .21 .25 .27 .27 .27 .29 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... .04 .06 .05 .05 .05 .07 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing...... .................... .44 .58 .62 .61 .61 .60 65. Transportation and warehousing....,.................. .99 .86 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.18 .47 .55 .66 .65 .65 .64 - - - - - - 1.00 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.22 broadcasting............................ broadcasting............................... 66. Communications; except 67. Radio and television 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... 1.20 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ .45 .67 .81 .81 .81 .75 70. Finance and insurance................................. .47 .44 .60 .59 .59 .58 71. Real estate and rental................................ .57 .89 .99 .98 .98 .96 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... .21 -.04 .17 .17 .17 .17 73. Business services...................................... 1.37 1.57 1.79 1.79 1.79 1.84 74. Research and development.............................. - - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services........................ .02 .28 .34 .34 .34 .33 76. Amusements............................................. -.11 -.21 -.11 -.10 -.10 -.10 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... .77 .49 .57 .58 .58 .67 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ .17 .22 .25 .24 .24 .24 79. State and local government enterprises............... .01 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 80. Gross Imports of goods and services.................. .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 81. Business travel, entertainment and g ifts ............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ .33 .46 .51 .50 .50 .49 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... .84 1.00 .98 1.00 1.00 .97 84. Government industry.................................... 47.03 46.98 44.46 44.59 44.59 44.11 85. Rest of the world industry............................ - - - - - - 86. Household industry..................................... - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - - Total................................................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1/ 2/ See footnote 2, table 1V-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projec tions are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table IV-6. Industrial Composition of Private Fixed Capital Investment 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 _________________________ (Millions of 1958 dollars)________________________ Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 3 percent unemployment 1962 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High durables High services 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... - - - - - - 2. Other agricultural products........................... - - - - - - 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... - - - - - - 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... - - - - - - 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining....................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... - - - - - - 7. Coal mining............................................ - - - - - - 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... - - - - - - 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. - - - - - - 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... - - - - - - 11. New construction....................................... 36,957 41,236 55,932 55,382 57,882 51,982 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. - - - - - - 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. - - - - - - 14. Food and kindred products..... ....................... - - T - - - 15. Tobacco manufactures................................... - - * - - - 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls..... - - - - - - 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... 45 64 78 77 83 77 18. Apparel................................................. - - - - - - 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ - - - - - - 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... 6 6 9 9 9 8 21. Wooden containers...................................... - - - - - - 22. Household furniture.................................... 126 142 247 243 263 228 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... 798 1,020 1,647 1,620 1,742 1,516 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... - - - - - - 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... - - - - - - 26. Printing and publishing............................... - - - - - - 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. - - - - - - 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... - - - - - - 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. - - - - - - 30. Paints and allied products............................ - - - - - 31. Petroleum refining and related Industries............ - - - - - - 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... 52 14 18 18 20 17 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. 5 - - - - - 35. Glass and glass products.............................. - - - - - - 36. Stone and clay products............................... - - - - - - 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. - - - - - - 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. - - - - - - 39. Metal containers....................................... 10 11 23 23 25 21 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 708 560 1,036 1,019 1,098 955 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... - - - - - - 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... 166 169 290 285 306 267 43. Engines and turbines................................... 576 474 577 567 610 531 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... 1,670 1,532 2,256 2,220 2,389 2,079 45. Construction, mining and oil field siachinery......... 1,319 1,272 2,531 2,490 2,678 2,331 See footnotes at end of table, 68 Table IV-6, Industrial Composition of Private Fixed Capital Investment 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 3 percent unemployment 1962 Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High durables High services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... 352 434 699 688 740 644 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. 1,153 1,328 2,191 2,156 2,319 2,018 48. Special Industry machinery and equipment............. 1,468 1,848 2,907 2,860 3,076 2,677 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... 1,051 1,141 1,741 1,713 1,844 1,599 50. Machine shop products................................. - - - - - - 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 1,016 1,430 3,743 3,683 4,500 3,448 52. Service industry machines............................. 955 1,243 2,455 2,416 2,599 2,262 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......... 1,617 1,918 3,371 3,317 3,569 3,106 54. Household appliances................................... 93 101 210 207 222 194 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... 25 39 58 57 61 54 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ 1,009 1,634 2,541 2,500 2,689 2,342 57. Electronic components and accessories................ 27 52 92 90 97 84 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 83 125 223 220 237 206 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 3,575 5,917 10,115 9,870 10,480 9,242 60. Aircraft and parts..... ............................... 358 883 1,379 1,357 1,461 1,271 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 1,178 1,167 2,652 2,610 2,808 2,443 62. Scientific and controlling Instruments............... 532 704 1,156 1,137 1,224 1,065 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... 163 252 593 583 627 546 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... 279 381 599 589 633 551 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 507 640 1,142 1,121 1,234 1,038 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. 362 469 721 709 772 664 67. Radio and television broadcasting.................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... - - - - - - 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 3,747 4,742 8,564 8,410 8,945 7,893 70. Finance and insurance................................. - - - - - - 1,350 1,350 1,350 1,250 71. Real estate and rental............ .................... 1,209 1,100 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... - - - - - - 73. Business services...... ............................... - - - - - - 74. Research and development.............................. - - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services........................ - - - - - - 76. Amusements.......... ........ .......................... - - - - - - 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... - - - - - - 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ - - - - - - 79. State and local government enterprises............... - - - - - - 80. Gross Imports of goods and services.................. 16 21 36 36 33 29 - 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ - - - - - - 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... -822 -668 -632 -632 -625 -638 84. Government industry.................................... - - - - - - 85. Rest of the world Industry............................ - - - - - - 86. Household Industry..................................... - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - - Total................................................. 62,392 73,399 112,550 111,000 118,000 104,000 1/ 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business, September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 69 Table IV-7. Industrial Composition o£ Private Fixed Capital Investment 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 _________________________ (Percent distribution)_____________________________ Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... . - - - . . 2. Other agricultural products........................... - - - - - - 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... - - - - - 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... - - - - - 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... - - - - - 7. Coal mining............................................ - - - - - 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... - - - - - 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. - - - - - 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral m ining............... - - - - - 11. New construction....................................... 59.23 49.70 49.89 49.05 49.98 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. - - - - - - 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. - - - - - - 14. Food and kindred products............................. - - - - - - 15. Tobacco manufactures................................... - - - - - - 56.18 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s ..... - - - - - - 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... .07 .09 .07 .07 .07 .07 - 18. Apparel................................................. - - - - - 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ - - - - - - 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 21. Wooden containers...................................... - - - - - - 22. Household furniture.................................... .20 .19 .22 .22 .22 .22 1.46 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... 1.28 1.39 1.46 1.46 1.48 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... - - - - - - 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... - - - - - - 26. Printing and publishing..... ......... ................ - - - - - - 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. - - - - - - 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... - - - - - - 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. - - * - - * 30. Paints and allied products........................... - - - * - - 31. Petroleum refining and related Industries............ - - - - - - 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... .08 .02 .02 .02 .02 .02 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. .01 - - - - - 35. Glass and glass products.............................. - - - - - - 36. Stone and clay products............................... - - - - - - 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. - - - - - - 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. - - - - - - 39. Metal containers....................................... .02 .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 1.13 .76 .92 .92 .93 .92 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... - - - - - - 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... .27 .23 .26 .26 .26 .26 43. Engines and turbines................................... .92 .65 .51 .51 .52 .51 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... 2.68 2.09 2.00 2.00 2.02 2.00 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... 2.11 1.73 2.25 2.24 2.27 2.24 See footnotes at end of table. 70 Table IV-7. Industrial Composition of Private Fixed Capital Investment 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970— Continued (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... .56 .59 .62 .62 .63 .62 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. 1.85 1.81 1.95 1.94 1.97 1.94 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............. 2.35 2.52 2.58 2.58 2.61 2.57 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... 1.68 1.55 1.55 1.54 1.56 1.54 50. Machine shop products.................................. - - - - - - 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 1.63 1.95 3.33 3.32 3.81 3.32 52. Service industry machines............................. 1.53 1.69 2.18 2.18 2.20 2.18 53. Electric industrial equipatent and apparatus.......... 2.59 2.61 3.00 2.99 3.02 2.99 54. Household appliances................................... .15 .14 .19 .19 .19 .19 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ 1.62 2.23 2.26 2.25 2.28 2.25 57. Electronic components and accessories................ .04 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 58. Miscellaneous electrical siachlnery and supplies..... .13 .17 .20 .20 .20 .20 59. Motor vehicles and equipment..... .................... 5.73 8.06 8.99 8.89 8.88 8.89 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... .57 1.20 1.23 1.22 1.24 1.22 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 1.89 1.59 2.36 2.35 2.38 2.35 62. Scientific and controlling Instruments............... .85 .96 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.02 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... .26 .34 .53 .53 .53 .53 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... .45 .52 .53 .53 .54 .53 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ .81 .87 1.01 1.01 1.05 1.00 66. Communications; except broadcasting.............. .'. .. .58 .64 .64 .64 .65 .64 67. Radio and television broadcasting..................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... - - - - - - 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 6.01 6.46 7.61 7.58 7.58 7.59 70. Finance and Insurance.................................. - - - - - - 71. Real estate and rental................................ 1.94 1.50 1.20 1.22 1.14 1.20 72. Hotels; personal and repair services................. - - - - - - 73. Business services...................................... - - - - - - 74. Research and development.............................. - - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services........................ - - - - - - 76. Amusements............................................. - - - - - - 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... - - - - - - 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ - - - - - - 79. State and local government enterprises............... - - - - - - 80. Gross Imports of goods and services............. . .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 .03 - 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ - - - - - - 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... -1.32 -.19 -.56 -.57 -.53 -.61 84. Government industry.................................... - - - - - - 85. Rest of the world Industry............................ - - - - - - 86. Household Industry..................................... - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - - Total................................................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1/ 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2, NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 71 Table IV-8. Industrial Composition of Gross Private Domestic Investment 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products.................... . 601 698 388 388 388 388 2. Other agricultural products........................... 428 -144 236 236 236 236 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... 19 16 34 34 34 34 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... 20 14 31 31 31 31 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... -23 -5 2 2 2 2 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................... -32 4 12 12 12 12 7. Coal mining............................................ -22 -17 25 25 25 25 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... -40 21 34 34 34 34 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying..... ........... . 4 8 17 17 17 17 Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... -1 - 5 5 5 5 11. New construction....................................... 36,957 41,236 55,932 55,382 57,882 51,982 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. - - - - - - 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. 84 - 29 29 29 29 14. Food and kindred products............................. 248 494 463 463 463 463 15. Tobacco manufactures................................... -26 16 10 10 10 10 10. 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m ills..... -104 148 111 111 111 111 17. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ 18 137 143 142 148 142 618 18. Apparel................................................. -123 629 618 618 618 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ -1 27 19 19 19 19 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... 68 62 69 69 69 68 21. Wooden containers.............. ....................... -9 18 11 11 11 11 22. Household furniture.................................... 120 177 276 272 292 257 23. Other furniture and fixtures........... ............... 799 1,025 1,654 1,627 1,749 1,523 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... -3 68 73 73 73 73 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... -1 30 22 22 22 22 26. Printing and publishing............................... 11 70 78 78 78 78 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. -24 69 65 65 65 65 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... -44 91 99 99 99 99 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. 56 142 148 148 148 148 30. Paints and allied products................ ........... -4 2 4 4 4 4 31. Petroleum refining and related Industries............ -186 157 114 114 114 114 90 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... 20 85 91 91 93 33. Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... -3 -4 5 5 5 5 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. 37 102 21 21 21 21 35. Glass and glass products.............................. -5 14 12 12 12 12 36. Stone and clay products............................... 28 32 42 42 42 42 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. -160 -102 100 100 100 100 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..... ........ -10 99 112 112 112 112 39. Metal containers....................................... 23 16 29 29 31 27 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 639 545 1,042 1,025 1,104 961 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... -67 5 13 13 13 13 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... 118 268 392 387 408 369 43. Engines and turbines................................... 516 524 627 617 660 581 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... 1,648 1,648 2,374 2,338 2,507 2,197 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... 1,246 1,310 2,580 2,539 2,727 2,380 See footnotes at end of table. 72 Table IV-8. Industrial Composition of Gross Private Domestic Investment 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 3 percent unemployment 1962 1958 Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 1/ durablaa High 2/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... 328 416 734 723 775 679 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. 1,022 1,402 2,277 2,242 2,405 2,104 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............. 1,361 1,860 2,915 2,868 3,084 2,685 49. General industrial machinery and equipment........... 970 1,209 1,809 1,781 1,912 1,667 50. Machine shop products.................................. -10 39 33 33 33 33 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 1,001 1,498 3,836 3,776 4,593 3,541 52. Service Industry machines............................. 919 1,288 2,500 2,461 2,644 2,307 53. Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.......... 1,484 1,973 3,436 3,382 3,634 3,171 54. Household appliances................................... 29 174 296 293 308 280 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... -4 56 85 84 88 81 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ 938 1,805 2,805 2,764 2,953 2,606 57. Electronic components and accessories................ -21 202 205 203 210 197 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 59 150 254 251 268 237 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 3,046 6,657 10,894 10,649 11,259 10,021 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... 96 1,068 1,542 1,520 1,624 1,434 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 1,103 1,309 2,801 2,759 2,957 2,592 62. Scientific and controlling instruments............... 524 776 1,225 1,206 1,293 1,134 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... 168 267 608 598 642 561 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... 313 485 712 702 746 664 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 661 783 1,287 1,266 1,379 1,183 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. 362 469 721 709 772 664 67. Radio and television broadcasting..................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... - - - - - - 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 3,816 5,213 9,002 8,848 9,383 8,331 70. Finance and Insurance.................................. - - - - - - 1,209 1,100 1,350 1,350 1,350 1,250 - 71. Real estate and rental....................... ......... 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... - - - - - 73. Business services...................................... - - - - - - 74. Research and development.............................. - - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services........................ - - - - * - 76. Amusements............................................. 22 15 41 41 41 41 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... - - - - - - 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ - - - - - - 79. State and local government enterprises............... - - - - - - 80. Gross imports of goods and services.................. 24 -112 -348 -348 -351 -355 - 81. Business travel, entertainsmnt and gifts............. - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ - - - - - - 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... -1,028 -701 -632 -632 -625 -638 84. Government Industry.................................... - - - - - - 85. Rest of the world industry............................ - - - - - - 86. Household industry..................................... ' - - - - - - 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ -311 269 - - - - Total................................................. 60,901 79,403 118,550 117,000 124,000 110,000 J 1 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 73 Table IV-9. Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 _ Industry number and title 1958 y 3 percent unemployment 1962 Basic model 4 percent unemployment High 2/ durables Basic model High 3/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... 2,110 1,883 1,651 1,632 1,617 1,638 2. Other agricultural products........................... 2,428 2,297 2,644 2,608 2,597 2,617 384 3. Forestry and fishery products......................... 281 301 390 383 382 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... - - - - - - 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores m i ning.......................... - - - - - - 7. Coal mining............................................ 261 186 181 179 178 180 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ....................... - - - - - - 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. 17 21 30 29 28 29 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... 1 2 2 2 2 2 - - - 11. New construction....................................... - - - 12. Maintenance and repair construction.................. - - - - - - 13. Ordnance and accessories.............................. 158 201 344 341 353 342 14. Food and kindred products............................. 45,376 50,547 64,556 63,585 63,356 63,811 15. Tobacco manufactures.................................. 4,249 4,847 6,517 6,419 6,393 6,442 1,193 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls..... 696 825 1,214 1,188 1,206 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... 743 909 1,473 1,450 1,582 1,454 18. Apparel................................................ 11,033 12,719 17,789 17,521 17,462 17,583 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ 1,101 1,339 1,993 1,965 1,991 1,972 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... 149 174 268 263 283 264 21. Wooden containers...................................... - - - - - - 22. Household furniture.................................... 2,416 2,606 4,321 4,258 4,663 4,271 23. Other furniture and fixtures.......................... 129 158 264 260 285 261 24. Paper and allied products, except containers......... 848 1,039 1,550 1,528 1,522 1,533 25. Paperboard containers and boxes....................... 38 45 66 65 65 65 26. Printing and publishing............................... 2,444 2,991 4,130 4,066 4,192 4,079 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. 213 259 388 384 394 385 28. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... 10 14 20 19 19 19 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. 3,704 4,669 8,569 8,441 8,412 8,471 30. Paints and allied products.... . 18 22 32 31 31 31 31. Petroleum refining and related Industries............ 7,257 8,134 11,685 11,511 11,464 11,552 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... 1,308 1,731 2,640 2,601 2,790 2,609 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products...... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products.................. 2,594 2,597 2,943 2,887 2,891 2,898 35. Glass and glass products.............................. 130 147 214 211 229 213 36. Stone and clay products............................... 214 243 349 344 361 345 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................. 19 22 28 28 28 28 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. 11 13 21 20 22 20 39. Metal containers....................................... - - - - - - 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 70 84 131 131 143 132 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... 249 267 380 374 407 375 42. Other fabricated metal products....................... 372 451 775 764 807 766 43. Engines and turbines...... ........................... 126 150 286 282 309 283 44. Farm machinery and equipment.......................... 8 11 18 17 19 17 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... - - - - - - See footnotes at end of table. 239-877 0-66-6 Jk Table 1V-9. Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures 1958, 1962, and Projected— Continued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 - 3 percent unemployment 1962 Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 1/ durables High 1/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... - - - . _ 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. 31 39 64 63 69 63 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............. 19 24 41 40 44 40 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... - - - - - - 50. Machine shop products.................................. - - - - - - 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 58 73 126 124 136 125 52. Service Industry machines............................. 247 301 481 473 518 474 - 53. Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.......... 15 18 29 28 30 28 54. Household appliances................................... 2,371 2,853 5,372 5,288 5,782 5,305 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... 313 388 615 605 632 607 56. Radio, television and communication equlpsmnt........ 1,353 1,826 4,428 4,364 4,779 4,377 57. Electronic components and accessories................ 149 201 405 401 439 402 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 260 333 551 545 587 546 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 9,198 13,222 21,095 20,780 22,753 20,843 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... 27 33 63 62 68 62 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 725 979 1,662 1,637 1,793 1,642 62. Scientific and controlling Instruments............... 349 496 723 713 764 716 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... 451 612 1,093 1,077 1,149 1,080 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... 2,526 3,004 5,306 5,233 5,514 5,251 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 8,568 9,958 14,031 13,819 13,605 13,895 66. Communications; except broadcasting.......... ........ 3,908 4,918 8,555 8,428 7,823 8,502 67. Radio and television broadcasting..................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... 8,058 10,023 15,731 15,496 14,333 15,632 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 61,483 71,336 101,638 100,383 102,828 100,728 70. Finance and Insurance................................. 11,813 13,604 20,780 20,471 19,024 20,650 71. Reel estate and rental,,................. . 39,946 47,587 72,396 71,517 66,419 72,144 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... 9,263 10,747 15,053 14,697 13,653 14,826 73. Business services...................................... 1,888 2,263 2,796 2,753 2,556 2,777 74. Research and development.............................. - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services........................ 7,228 7,120 6,609 7,182 - 4,386 4,818 76. Amusements............................................. 3,186 3,501 4,678 4,609 4,277 4,648 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 20,445 23,944 36,890 36,271 33,685 38,885 1,129 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ 632 747 1,136 1,119 1,038 79. State and local government enterprises............... 312 405 765 753 699 759 80. Gross imports of goods and services.................. 3,855 5,209 7,403 7,297 7,108 7,340 81. Business travel, entertainsmnt and gifts............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ - - - - - - 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... -55 -44 3 - 10 - 84. Government Industry.................................... - - - - - - 85. Rest of the world Industry............................ - - - - - - 86. Household industry..................................... 3,502 3,322 3,601 3,547 3,293 3,578 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ - - - - - . Total................................................. 290,069 338,641 492,600 485,500 478,500 490,500 1/ Travel receipts from foreign visitors to the United States were distributed among the individual producing indus tries for all years. Therefore, 1958 data differ from that presented in the 1958 input-output table, where it is shown as a single item in industry 85. A corresponding, but off setting adjustment has also been made in net exports, as shown in table IV-12. See footnote 2, table IV-2. 2/ 3/ See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 75 Table IV-10. Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, for Selected Years and Projected 1970 (Billions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Selected years 3 percent Major type 1950 1957 1962 1965 -1 4 percent unemployment ment Basic model Basic model U High durables y High services Total personal consumption expenditures.......... Durable goods................................... Automobiles and parts........................ Furniture and household equipment........... Other......................................... 230.5 288.2 492.6 485.5 478.5 490.5 41.5 18.8 17.4 5.3 338.6 49.2 21.8 20.5 6.8 394.1 34.7 15.9 15.1 3.7 65.4 30.1 26.5 8.8 83.1 34.8 36.6 11.7 81.9 34.3 36.1 11.5 89.7 37.5 39.6 12.6 82.2 34.4 36.2 11.6 Nondurable goods................................ Food and beverages........................... Clothing and shoes........................... Gasoline and oil ............................. Other......................................... 114.0 63.2 21.8 6.5 22.5 138.7 76.2 24.4 10.5 27.5 158.4 84.1 28.4 12.5 33.4 177.0 91.7 32.8 13.9 38.6 212.1 106.8 37.9 18.1 49.3 209.0 105.2 37.3 17.9 48.6 208.2 104.8 37.2 17.8 48.4 209.8 105.6 37.5 18.0 48.7 Services......................................... Housing....................................... Household operation.......................... Transportation............................... Other......................................... 81.8 26.8 11.7 8.5 34.8 108.0 39.2 16.7 9.5 42.5 131.1 49.1 20.4 9.9 51.7 151.6 59.2 23.3 10.6 58.4 197.4 74.8 31.2 14.9 76.5 194.5 73.7 30.7 14.6 75.5 180.6 68.4 28.5 13.6 70.1 198.5 74.3 31.0 14.8 78.4 Percent distribution Total personal consumption expenditures.......... 100.0 100.0 14.5 6.4 6.1 2.0 100.0 16.6 7.6 6.7 2.2 100.0 15.1 6.9 6.6 1.6 100.0 14.4 6.5 6.0 1.8 100.0 Durable goods................................... Automobiles and parts........................ Furniture and household equipment........... Other......................................... 16.9 7.1 7.4 2.4 16.9 7.1 7.4 2.4 100.0 18.7 7.8 8.3 2.6 100.0 16.8 7.0 7.4 2.4 Nondurable goods................................ Food and beverages........................... Clothing and shoes........................... Gasoline and o i l ............................. Other......................................... 49.4 27.4 9.5 2.8 9.8 48.1 26.4 8.5 3.6 9.5 46.8 24.8 8.4 3.7 9.9 44.9 23.3 8.3 3.5 9.8 43.1 21.7 7.7 3.7 10.0 43.0 21.7 7.7 3.7 10.0 43.5 21.9 7.8 3.7 10.1 42.8 21.5 7.6 3.7 9.9 Services......................................... Housing....................................... Household operation.......................... Transportation............................... Other......................................... 35.5 11.6 5.1 3.7 15.1 37.5 13.6 5.8 3.3 14.8 38.7 14.5 6.0 2.9 15.3 38.5 15.0 5.9 2.7 14.8 40.1 15.2 6.3 3.0 15.5 40.1 15.2 6.3 3.0 15.6 37.7 14.3 6.0 2.8 14.6 40.5 15.1 6.3 3.0 16.0 Average annual rate of change Selected periods 1950-57 1957-65 1957-62 Projected 1 9 6 5 - 7 0 ^ 1962-65 3 percent unemployment mir 4 percent unemployment Ra model Basic model High durables y High services Total personal consumption expenditures.......... 3,2 4.0 3.3 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.5 Durable goods.................................... Automobiles and parts........................ Furniture and household equipment........... Other......................................... 2.6 2.4 2.0 5.3 5.9 6.1 5.4 6.6 3.5 3.0 3.3 5.1 9.9 11.4 8.9 9.0 4.9 2.9 6.7 5.8 4.6 2.7 6.4 5.5 6.5 4.5 8.4 7.5 4.7 2.7 6.4 5.7 Nondurable goods................................ Food and beverages........................... Clothing and shoes........................... Gasoline and oil ............................. Other......................................... 2.8 2.7 1.6 7.1 2.9 3.1 2.4 3.8 3.6 4.3 2.7 2.0 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.8 2.9 4.9 3.6 5.0 3.7 3.1 2.9 5.4 5.0 3.4 2.8 2.6 5.2 4.7 3.3 2.7 2.5 5.1 4.6 3.5 2.9 2.7 5.3 4.8 Services......................................... Housing....................................... Household operation.......................... Transportation............................... Other......................................... 4.1 5.6 5.2 1.6 2.9 4.3 5.3 4.3 1.4 4.1 4.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 4.0 5.0 6.4 4.5 2.3 4.1 5.4 4.8 6.0 7.0 5.5 5.1 4.5 5.7 6.6 5.3 3.6 2.9 4.1 5.1 3.7 5.5 4.6 5.9 6.9 6.1 \l 2/ 3/ 4/ Preliminary. See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. Compound Interest rates based on terminal years. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Historical data on personal consumption expendi tures are from U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics. Projections are by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 76 Table IV-11. Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 1/ durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products.................... .73 .56 .34 .34 .34 .33 2. Other agricultural products.......................... .84 .68 .55 .54 .54 .53 3. Forestry and fishery products........................ .10 .09 .08 .08 .08 .08 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services......... - - - - - - 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...................... - - - - - - 6. Nonferrous metal ores m ining......................... - - - - - - 7. Coal mining ........................................... .09 .05 .04 .04 .04 .04 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...................... 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying................. 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining.............. - - - - - - 11. New construction...................................... - - - - - - 12. Maintenance and repair construction................. - - - - - - 13. Ordnance and accessories............................. .05 .06 .07 .07 .07 .07 14. Food and kindred products............................ 15.64 14.93 13.11 13.10 13.24 13.01 15. Tobacco manufactures.................................. 1.46 1.43 1.32 1.32 1.34 1.31 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills..... .24 .24 .25 .24 .25 .24 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... .26 .27 .30 .30 .33 .30 - - - - - - .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 18. Apparel...................... ......................... 3.80 3.76 3.61 3.61 3.65 3.58 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... .38 .40 .40 .40 .42 .40 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers......... .05 .05 .05 .05 .06 .05 21. Wooden containers..................................... - - - - - - 22. Household furniture................................... .83 .77 .88 .88 .97 .87 23. Other furniture and fixtures......................... .04 .05 .05 .05 .06 .05 24. Paper and allied products, except containers........ .29 .31 .31 .31 .32 .31 25. Paperboard containers and boxes...................... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 26. Printing and publishing.............. .......... . .84 .88 .84 .84 .88 .83 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............ .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 28. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... - - - - - - 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............ 1.28 1.38 1.74 1.74 1.76 1.73 30. Paints and allied products............ ............... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 31. Petroleum refining and related Industries........... 2.50 2.40 2.37 2.37 2.40 2.36 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... .45 .51 .54 .54 .58 .53 33. Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.... - - - - - - 34. Footwear and other leather products................. .89 .77 .60 .59 .60 .59 35. Glass and glass products............................. .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .04 36. Stone and clay products.............................. .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .07 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................ .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 - 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. - - - - - 39. Metal Containers...................................... - - - - - - 40. Heating, structural metal products.... .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... .09 .08 .08 .08 .09 .08 42. Other fabricated metal products.... ................. .13 .13 .16 .16 .17 .16 plumbing and 43. Engines and turbines.................................. .04 .04 .06 .06 .06 .06 44. Farm machinery and equipment........... ............. - - - - - - 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ - - - - - - See footnotes at end of table 77 Table IV-11. Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model V High durables y High services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment.......... - - - - - - 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................ .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 48. Special Industry machinery and equipment............ .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 49. General industrial machinery and equipment.......... - - - - - - 50. Machine shop products................................ - - - - - .03 51. Office, computing and accounting machines........... .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 52. Service Industry machines............................ .09 .09 .10 .10 .11 .10 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 54. Household appliances................................. .82 .84 1.09 1.09 1.21 1.08 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. .11 .11 .12 .12 .13 .12 56. Radio, television and communication equipment....... .47 .54 .90 .90 1.00 .89 57. Electronic components and accessories............... .05 .06 .08 .08 .09 .08 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.... .09 .10 .11 .11 .12 .11 59. Motor vehicles and equipment......................... 3.17 3.90 4.28 4.28 4.76 4.25 60. Aircraft and parts.................................... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 61. Other transportation equipment....................... .25 .29 .34 .34 .37 .33 62. Scientific and controlling Instruments.............. .12 .15 .15 .15 .16 .15 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment..... .16 .18 .22 .22 .24 .22 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing.......................... .87 .89 1.08 1.08 1.15 1.07 65. Transportation and warehousing....................... 2.95 2.94 2.85 2.85 2.84 2.83 1.73 66. Communications; except broadcasting................. 1.35 1.45 1.74 1.74 1.63 67. Radio and television broadcasting................... - - - - - - 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.......... 2.78 2.96 3.19 3.19 3.00 3.19 20.54 69. Wholesale and retail trade................... ....... 21.20 21.07 20.63 20.68 21.49 70. Finance and Insurance................................ 4.07 4.02 4.22 4.22 3.98 4.21 71. Real estate and rental............................... 13.77 14.05 14.70 14.73 13.88 14.71 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto... 3.19 3.17 3.06 3.03 2.85 3.02 73. Business services............. ....................... .65 .67 .57 .57 .53 .57 74. Research and development............................. - - - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services....................... 1.51 1.42 1.47 1.47 1.38 1.46 76. Amusement8............................................ 1.10 1.03 .95 .95 .89 .95 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 7.05 7.07 7.49 7.47 7.04 7.93 78. Federal Government enterprises....................... .22 .22 .23 .23 .22 .23 79. State and local government enterprises...,.......... .11 .12 .16 .16 .15 .15 80. Gross imports of goods and services................. 1.33 1.54 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.50 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............ - - - - - - 82. Office supplies..................................... - - - - - - 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods............ ........ .01 -.01 - - - - 84. Government industry............ ...................... - - - - - - 85. Rest of the world industry............ ............... - - - - - - 86. Household industry.................................... 1.21 .98 .73 .73 .69 .73 87. Inventory valuation adjustment....................... - - - - - - Total................................................ 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 J J 1 2 See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Departswnt of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 78 Table IV-12. Industrial Composition of Net Exports— ^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 2/ - 3 percent unemployment 1962 Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 3/ durables High 4/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products.................... 38 27 44 44 44 44 2. Other agricultural products.......................... 1,814 2,473 3,171 3,171 3,171 3,171 62 3. Forestry and fishery products........................ 30 38 62 62 62 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services......... 3 6 10 10 10 10 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining..................... 41 70 113 113 113 113 6. Nonferrous metal ores m ining......................... 4 6 14 14 14 14 7. Coal mining........................................... 332 239 370 370 370 370 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...................... 28 20 29 29 29 29 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying................. 23 29 41 41 41 41 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .............. 55 64 90 90 90 90 11. New construction............... ...................... 2 2 4 4 4 4 12. Maintenance and repair construction................. - - - - - - 13. Ordnance and accessories............................. 17 135 264 264 264 264 14. Food and kindred products............................ 1,681 1,900 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 15. Tobacco manufactures................................. 437 480 605 605 605 605 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls.... 227 212 185 185 185 185 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... 46 66 61 61 61 61 18. Apparel................................................ 273 298 342 342 342 342 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... 19 23 17 17 17 17 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers......... 110 149 284 284 284 284 21. Wooden containers..................................... 3 3 5 5 5 5 22. Household furniture............... ................... 16 14 11 11 11 11 23. Other furniture and fixtures................. ....... 18 13 10 10 10 10 24. Paper and allied products, except containers........ 262 395 598 598 598 598 25. Paperboard containers and boxes...................... 19 23 38 38 38 38 26. Printing and publishing..... .................... . 94 139 193 193 193 193 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products........... 676 977 1,523 1,523 1,523 1,523 28. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... 339 513 650 650 650 650 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............ 330 369 487 487 487 487 30. Paints and allied products........................... 27 27 39 39 39 39 31. Petroleum refining and related industries........... 657 627 776 776 776 776 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... 212 255 361 361 361 361 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products.... 28 32 50 50 50 50 34. Footwear and other leather products................. 49 33 30 30 30 30 35. Glass and glass products............................. 69 81 106 106 106 106 36. Stone and clay products.............................. 100 108 137 137 137 137 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................ 535 416 550 550 550 550 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. 305 399 553 553 553 553 39. Metal containers...................................... 26 23 25 25 25 25 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.... 225 251 339 339 339 339 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... 28 35 44 44 44 44 42. Other fabricated metal products...................... 258 262 347 347 347 347 43. Engines and turbines.................................. 211 277 525 525 525 525 44. Farm machinery and equipment......................... 188 228 394 394 394 394 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery....... 709 872 1,322 1,322 1,322 1,322 See footnotes at end of table. 79 Table IV-12. Industrial Composition of Net Exports—1/ 1 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 -1 3 percent unemployment 1962 Basic model 46. Materials handling swchlnery and equipment.......... 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................ 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 3/ durables High 4/ services 76 86 172 172 172 172 331 524 976 976 976 976 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............ 370 555 915 915 915 915 49. General industrial machinery and equipment.......... 275 333 672 672 672 672 50. Machine shop products................................ 15 5 10 10 10 10 322 779 779 779 779 51. Office, computing and accounting machines........... 136 52. Service industry machines............................ 135 179 342 342 342 342 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......... 281 344 601 601 601 601 54. Household appliances.................................. 208 194 321 321 321 321 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. 64 75 123 123 123 123 56. Radio, television and communication equipment....... 212 317 719 719 719 719 57. Electronic components and accessories..... ......... 90 147 292 292 292 292 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 71 77 129 129 129 129 59. Motor vehicles and equipment......................... 921 1,138 1,799 1,799 1,799 1,799 60. Aircraft and parts.................................... 559 1,068 1,883 1,883 1,883 1,883 61. Other transportation equipment....................... 299 191 267 267 267 267 62. Scientific and controlling Instruments.............. 183 336 638 638 638 638 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment..... 107 150 309 309 309 309 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing................. ........ 125 188 250 250 250 250 65. Transportation and warehousing....................... 2,393 2,872 4,089 4,089 4,089 4,089 111 66. Communications; except broadcasting................. 65 82 111 111 111 67. Radio and television broadcasting........... ........ 9 20 37 37 37 37 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.......... 36 35 54 54 54 54 2,836 69. Wholesale and retail trade........................... 1,500 1,990 2,836 2,836 2,836 70. Finance and Insurance................................ 23 28 63 63 63 63 71. Real estate and rental.......... ..................... 271 429 580 580 580 580 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto... 192 202 303 303 303 303 73. Business services..................................... 249 330 425 425 425 425 74. Research and development............................. - 17 - - - - 75. Automobile repair and services....................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 335 346 492 492 492 492 76. Amusements............................................ 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organisations.... 9 10 14 14 14 14 78. Federal Government enterprises....................... 61 76 66 66 66 66 79. State and local government enterprises.............. 3 -1 - - - - 80. Gross Imports of goods and services................. -21,082 -25,474 -34,308 -34,308 -34,308 -34,308 - 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............ - - - - - 82. Office supplies....................................... - - - - - - 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods.................... 250 324 510 510 510 510 84. Government industry................................... - - - - - - 85. Rest of the world Industry........................... 2,867 4,420 6,842 6,842 6,842 6,842 86. Household industry......................... .......... 1 1 2 2 2 2 87. Inventory valuation adjustment....................... - - - - - - Total................................................ 2,206 4,545 10,499 10,499 10,499 10,499 1/ The detailed entries reflect gross exports of goods and services from each producing Industry. Imports in total are shown as negative entries in these columns on row 80. Therefore, the sum of each column equals the GNP component, "net exports of goods and services" for the selected year. 2/ See footnote 1, table IV-9. 3/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. 4/ See footnote 3, table IV-2. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Coveerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business, September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the D.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 8o Table IV-13. Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 ______________________ (Millions of 1958 dollars)_________________________________ Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 - 1962 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 3/ durables High 4/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... 2,758 2,629 2,118 2,099 2,084 2,105 2. Other agricultural products.......................... 5,770 4,850 6,097 6,061 6,050 6,070 3. Forestry and fishery products........................ 194 249 237 230 229 231 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services......... 0 -27 -83 -83 -83 -83 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores m i ning...................... 18 65 115 115 115 115 6. Nonferrous metal ores m i ning......................... 163 293 226 222 222 222 7. Coal adning........................................... 631 530 739 734 733 735 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...................... -11 41 63 63 63 63 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying................. 41 52 70 69 68 69 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining.............. 78 74 118 118 118 118 11. New construction...................................... 52,416 58,071 82,608 81,558 84,058 78,998 12. Maintenance and repair construction................. 4,420 5,075 6,504 6,504 6,504 6,504 13. Ordnance and accessories............................. 3,592 4,167 5,420 5,417 5,429 5,418 14. Food and kindred products............................ 47,633 53,514 68,349 67,360 67,131 67,586 5,342 7,133 7,035 7,009 7,058 15. Tobacco manufactures............... .................. 4,661 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread sdlls.... 879 1,229 1,562 1,536 1,554 1,541 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... 813 1,124 1,689 1,665 1,803 1,669 18. Apparel................................................ 11,315 13,833 19,069 18,796 18,737 18,858 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... 1,221 1,466 2,105 2,076 2,102 2,083 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers......... 323 381 618 612 632 612 21. Wooden Containers..................................... -4 34 30 30 30 30 22. Household furniture................................... 2,634 2,933 4,822 4,751 5,176 4,756 23. Other furniture and fixtures......................... 1,099 1,490 2,353 2,315 2,462 2,229 24. Fapar and allied products, except containers........ 1,185 1,559 2,300 2,276 2,270 2,281 25. Paperboard containers and boxes...................... 61 187 153 152 152 152 26. Printing and publishing.............................. 2,813 3,580 5,080 5,006 5,132 5,053 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............ 1,931 2,309 3,152 3,139 3,149 3,177 28. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... 319 649 775 774 774 774 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............ 4,419 5,592 9,791 9,654 9,625 9,737 30. Paints and allied products........................... 44 64 100 97 97 97 31. Petroleum refining and related industries.......... 8,855 10,378 14,667 14,473 14,426 14,514 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... 1,744 2,270 3,456 3,410 3,601 3,417 33. Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.... 25 28 55 55 55 55 34. Footwear and other leather products................. 2,704 2,803 3,010 2,953 2,957 2,964 35. Glass and glass products............................. 196 242 332 329 347 331 36. Stone and clay products.............................. 350 392 543 538 555 539 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................ 514 453 795 794 794 794 729 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. 650 557 731 729 731 39. Metal containers...................................... 68 60 75 75 77 73 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.... 951 1,185 1,836 1,819 1,910 1,756 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts........ 310 390 546 537 570 538 42. Other fabricated metal products...................... 927 1,239 1,839 1,820 1,884 1,817 43. Engines and turbines................................. 1,145 1,177 1,683 1,668 1,738 1,633 44. Farm M c h i n e r y and equipment......................... 1,878 1,927 2,841 2,804 2,975 2,676 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ 2,060 2,340 4,070 4,028 4,216 3,869 See footnotes at end of table. 8l Table 1V-13. Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1958 3 percent unemployment 1962 Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High 3/ durables High 4/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... 593 717 1,141 1,128 1,180 1,111 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment................. 1,662 2,203 3,599 3,562 3,731 3,424 48. Special industry machinery and equipment.... ........ 1,814 2,535 3,988 3,937 4,157 3,754 49. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... 1,451 1,787 2,698 2,669 2,800 2,555 50. Machine shop products................................. 83 145 157 155 155 184 5,160 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ 1,372 2,318 5,325 5,257 6,086 52. Service industry machines............................. 1,397 1,840 3,425 3,376 3,604 3,223 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......... 2,136 2,589 4,324 4,269 4,523 4,058 54. Household appliances.................................. 2,780 3,238 6,010 5,923 6,432 5,927 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... 471 550 861 842 873 841 11,601 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ 4,333 7,794 11,854 11,746 12,350 57. Electronic components and accessories................ 593 1,074 1,537 1,531 1,576 1,526 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... 537 670 1,069 1,058 1,117 1,071 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 14,094 22,199 35,717 35,132 37,715 34,567 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... 8,730 10,624 11,380 11,357 11,467 11,271 61. Other transportation equipment........................ 2,820 3,500 5,841 5,772 6,126 5,610 62. Scientific and controlling instruments............... 1,800 2,541 3,555 3,520 3,658 3,470 2,141 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... 909 1,180 2,188 2,161 2,277 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... 3,184 4,008 6,768 6,673 6,998 6,653 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 13,463 15,852 21,933 21,676 21,575 21,751 10,183 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. 4,694 6,086 10,311 10,154 9,612 67. Radio and television broadcasting..................... 9 23 39 39 39 39 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... 8,929 11,017 17,271 17,006 15,843 17,142 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 67,627 79,848 115,198 113,772 116,752 113,574 70. Finance and insurance.................. ............... 12,028 13,872 21,336 21,017 19,570 21,196 71. Real estate and rental............ .................... 41,772 50,160 75,781 74,877 69,779 75,404 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto..,. 9,788 11,228 15,856 15,491 14,447 15,620 73. Business services...................................... 3,184 4,355 5,594 5,526 5,329 5,620 74. Research and development.............................. 372 360 390 390 390 390 75. Automobile repair and services........................ 4,599 5,061 7,635 7,518 7,007 7,580 76. Amusements.......................... ......... ....... . 3,516 3,805 5,184 5,117 4,785 5,156 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 21,418 24,883 38,541 37,922 35,336 40,616 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ 817 977 1,448 1,424 1,343 1,434 79. State and local government enterprises............... 434 625 1,041 1,021 967 1,027 80. Gross imports of goods and services.................. -14,483 -17,575 -24,815 -24,921 -25,113 -24,885 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ 207 331 492 480 480 480 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods...................... -374 248 613 610 627 604 84. Government industry.................................... 39,029 43,483 55,228 54,759 54,759 55,287 85. Rest of the world Industry............................ 2,560 3,525 6,092 6,092 6,092 6,092 86. Household industry..................................... 3,503 3,323 3,603 3,549 3,295 3,580 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ -311 269 - - - - 447,344 - /530,062 760,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 Total................................................ 1/ In this context, total final demand is the sum of demand from consumers, government, business, and foreign. The data are sums of tables IV-2, 4, 8, 9, and 12. 2 The presentation of the data on 1958 purchases by the Federal Government have been changed to conform with the treatment of research and development (1962 and 1970). 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. 4/ See footnote 3, table IV-2. 5/ In table III-l, total final demand or GNP is J shown as $530.0 while in this table, it is shown as 530,062 (530.1 rounded) which is the unrounded sum of each of the categories of final demand. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual items stay not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business, September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 82 Table IV-14. Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 1962 1958 3 percent unemployment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model it High durables High 2/ services 1. Livestock and livestock products.................... .62 .50 .28 .28 .28 .28 2. Other agricultural products.......................... 1.29 .92 .80 .81 .81 .81 3. Forestry and fishery products........................ .04 .05 .03 .03 .03 .03 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services......... - -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...................... ★ .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining......................... .04 .06 .03 .03 .03 .03 7. Coal mining........................................... .14 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 8. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ...................... * .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying................. .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining.............. .02 .01 .02 .02 .02 .02 11. New construction...................................... 11.72 10.96 10.87 10.87 11.21 10.53 12. Maintenance and repair construction................. .99 .96 .86 .87 .87 .87 13. Ordnance and accessories............................. .80 .79 .71 .72 .72 .72 14. Food and kindred products............................ 10.65 10.10 8.99 8.98 8.95 9.01 15. Tobacco manufactures................................. 1.04 1.01 .94 .94 .93 .94 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s .... .20 .23 .21 .20 .21 .21 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... .18 .21 .22 .22 .24 .22 18. Apparel................................................ 2.53 2.61 2.51 2.51 2.50 2.51 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... .27 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers......... .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .08 21. Wooden containers..................................... * .01 * * * * 22. Household furniture................................... .59 .55 .63 .63 .69 .63 23. Other furniture and fixtures......................... .25 .28 .31 .31 .33 .30 24. Paper and allied products, except containers........ .26 .29 .30 .30 .30 .30 25. Paperboard containers and boxes...................... .01 .04 .02 .02 .02 .02 26. Printing and publishing...... ....................... .63 .68 .67 .67 .68 .67 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............ .43 .44 .41 .42 .42 .42 28. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... .07 .12 .10 .10 .10 .10 29. Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............ .99 1.06 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.30 30. Paints and allied products........................... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 31. Petroleum refining and related industries........... 1.98 1.96 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.94 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... .39 .43 .45 .45 .48 .46 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products.... .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 34. Footwear and other leather products................. .60 .53 .40 .39 .39 .40 35. Glass and glass products............................. .04 .05 .04 .04 .05 .04 36. Stone and clay products.............................. .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 .07 37. Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................ .11 .09 .10 .11 .11 .11 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. .15 .11 .10 .10 .10 .10 39. Metal containers................................. . .02 .01 .01 .01 .01 .01 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.... .21 .22 .24 .24 .25 .23 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... .07 .07 .07 .07 .08 .07 42. Other fabricated metal products...................... .21 .23 .24 .24 .25 .24 43. Engines and turbines.................................. .26 .22 .22 .22 .23 .22 44. Farm machinery and equipment......................... .42 .36 .37 .37 .40 .36 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ .46 .44 .54 .54 .56 .52 See footnotes at end of table. 83 Table IV-14. Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued (Percent distribution) Projected 1970 Industry number and title 3 percent unemployment 1962 1958 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic model High 2/ durables High 3/ services 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... .13 .14 .15 .15 .16 .15 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment............. . .37 .42 .47 .47 .50 .46 48. Special industry machinery and equipment............. .41 .48 .52 .52 .55 .50 49. General industrial machinery and equipment........... .32 .34 .36 .36 .37 .34 50. Machine shop products................................. .02 .03 .02 .02 .02 .02 .69 51. Office, computing and accounting machines............ .31 .44 .70 .70 .81 52. Service industry machines............................. .31 .35 .45 .45 .48 .43 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......... .48 .49 .57 .57 .60 .54 .79 54. Household appliances.................................. .62 .61 .79 .79 .86 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... .11 .10 .11 .11 .12 .11 56. Radio, television and communication equipment........ .97 1.47 1.56 1.57 1.65 1.55 57. Electronic components and accessories................ .13 .20 .20 .20 .21 .20 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies..... .12 .13 .14 .14 .15 .14 59. Motor vehicles and equipment.......................... 3.15 4.19 4.70 4.68 5.03 4.61 60. Aircraft and parts..................................... 1.95 2.00 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.50 61. Other transportation equipment........................ .63 .66 .77 .77 .82 .75 62. Scientific and controlling instruments............... .40 .48 .47 .47 .49 .46 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... .20 .22 .29 .29 .30 .29 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing........................... .71 .76 .89 .89 .93 .89 65. Transportation and warehousing........................ 3.01 2.99 2.89 2.89 2.88 2.90 1.05 1.15 1.36 1.35 1.28 1.36 .01 .01 .01 .01 66. Communications; except broadcasting.................. 67. Radio and television broadcasting.................... 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... 2.00 2.08 2.27 2.27 2.11 2.29 * ★ 69. Wholesale and retail trade............................ 15.12 15.06 15.16 15.17 15.57 15.14 70. Finance and insurance................................. 2.69 2.62 2.81 2.80 2.61 2.83 71. Real estate and rental................................ 9.34 9.46 9.97 9.98 9.30 10.05 72. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... 2.19 2.12 2.09 2.07 1.93 2.08 73. Business services...................................... .71 .82 .74 .74 .71 .75 74. Research and development.............................. .08 .07 .05 .05 .05 .05 75. Automobile repair and services............... ........ 1.03 .95 1.00 1.00 .93 1.01 76. Amusements............................................. .79 .72 .68 .68 .64 .69 77. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... 4.79 4.69 5.07 5.06 4.71 5.42 78. Federal Government enterprises........................ .18 .18 .19 .19 .18 .19 79. State and local government enterprises............... .10 .12 .14 .14 .13 .14 80. Gross imports of goods and services.................. -3.24 -3.32 -3.27 -3.32 -3.35 -3.32 81. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. - - - - - - 82. Office supplies........................................ .05 .06 .06 .06 .06 .06 83. Scrap, used and secondhand goods..................... -.08 .05 .08 .08 .08 .08 84. Government industry.................................... 8.72 8.20 7.27 7.30 7.30 7.37 85. Rest of the world industry............................ .57 .67 .80 .81 .81 .81 86. Household industry..................................... .78 .63 .47 .47 .44 .48 87. Inventory valuation adjustment........................ -.07 .05 - - - - Total................................................. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 ♦Less than .01. 1/ In this context, total final demand is the sum of demand from consumers, government, business, and foreign. The data are sums of tables IV-2, 4, 8, 9, and 12. 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. See footnote 3, table IV-2. 3/ NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 814Table IV-15. Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand by Major Industry Group Selected Years and Projected 1970 (Millions of 1958 dollars) Projected 1970 Selected years 3 percent unemploy ment 1958 Major industry group 1962 1965— 7 Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model Basic 2/ durables Basic 2/ services 447,344 530,062 609,600 760,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 8,722 8,323 7,701 6,948 8,369 8,307 8,280 Mini n g ................................................... 4/ Construction ” ............................................. Agriculture.................................................. 920 1,055 1,511 1,331 1,321 1,319 1,322 56,836 63,146 68,784 88,862 88,062 90,562 85,502 Manufacturing................................................ 158,074 196,404 232,949 282,417 278,791 286,925 276,963 Durables................................................. 67,452 90,479 115,258 139,971 138,334 146,351 135,947 Nondurables............................................. 90,622 105,925 117,691 142,446 140,457 140,574 141,016 Transportation.............................................. 13,463 15,852 18,122 21,933 21,676 21,575 21,751 Communications and public utilities........................ 13,632 17,126 20,125 27,621 27,199 25,494 27,364 Trade........................................................ 67,627 79,848 93,305 115,448 113,772 116,752 113,574 Finance, insurance, and real estate........................ 53,800 64,032 76,500 97,117 95,894 89,349 96,600 Services..................................................... 42,877 49,692 55,432 73,200 71,964 67,294 74,982 Government enterprises...................................... 1,251 1,602 1,770 2,489 2,445 2,310 2,461 General government — ....................................... 39,029 43,483 46,799 55,228 54,759 54,759 55,287 Federal.................................................. 19,951 21,184 20,856 22,014 21,987 21,987 21,987 State and local......................................... 6/ Miscellaneous — ............................................. 19,078 22,299 25,943 38,214 32,772 32,772 33,300 5,585 7,696 9,450 10,800 10,731 10,494 10,756 Final demand Imports........................................ 6,795 8,186 9,024 9,920 9,814 9,622 9,850 Total Imports — ^.......................................... -21,277 -25,761 -31,200 -34,735 -34,735 -34,735 -34,735 l Percent distribution 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Agriculture.................................................. 1.95 1.45 1.14 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.11 Mining....................................................... .21 .20 .25 .18 .18 .18 .18 Construction................................................. 12.71 11.91 11.28 11.69 11.74 12.07 11.40 Manufacturing................................................ 35.34 37.05 38.22 37.16 37.17 38.26 36.93 Durables................................................. 15.08 17.07 18.91 18.42 18.44 19.51 18.13 Nondurables............................................. 20.26 19.98 19.31 18.74 18.73 18.74 18.80 Transportation.............................................. 3.01 2.99 2.97 2.89 2.89 2.88 2.90 Communications and public utilities........................ 3.05 3.23 3.30 3.63 3.63 3.40 3.65 Trade........................................................ 15.12 15.06 15.31 15.19 15.17 15.57 15.14 Finance, insurance, and real estate........................ 12.03 12.08 12.55 12.78 12.79 11.91 12.88 Services..................................................... 9.58 9.37 9.09 9.63 9.60 8.97 10.00 Government enterprises...................................... .28 .30 .29 .33 .33 .31 .33 General government.......................................... 8.72 8.20 7.68 7.27 7.30 7.30 7.37 Federal................ ................................. 4.46 4.00 3.42 2.90 2.93 2.93 2.93 State and local......................................... 4.26 4.21 4.26 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.44 Miscellaneous................................................ 1.25 1.45 1.55 1.42 1.43 1.40 1.43 Final demand Imports........................................ 1.52 1.54 1.48 1.31 1.31 1.28 1.31 Total imports............................................. -4.76 -4.86 -5.12 -4.57 -4.63 -4.63 -4.63 1/ This GNP is a preliminary revision of the GNP shown in table III-l and table A-l. The revisions are minor and do not substantially affect the total or distribution of final demand. 2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2. 3/ See footnote 3, table IV-2. 4/ Construction includes both new and maintenance con struction. Does not include compensation of government forceaccount construction employees which is included in construc tion. _6/ Includes industries 81 through 83 and industries 85 through 87. 5_/ 7/ The item "total imports" is an adjustment factor to total final demand to balance to GNP. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business, September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chapter V. The Interindustry Employment Table The interindustry employment table provides the means for convert ing the projections of final demand for goods and services into estimates of industry employment requirements. 31/ The table is derived by con verting the total requirements table of the basic set of input-output tables into employment terms. The interindustry employment table shows the direct and indirect employment required in each industry to produce the raw materials, parts, components, fuel, transportation, distribu tion, etc., embodied in the various final products and services produced by the economy. The application of the employment conversion factors in the inter industry employment table to the projections of final demand described in the previous chapter yields the projections of industry employment requirements. Before the interindustry employment table can be used for this purpose, however, the basic 1958 input-output relationships have to be projected to 1970 to take account of changes in technology, substitu tion of one type of material for another, product mix, industry integra tion, etc. In addition, the estimates of unit labor requirements used to convert output to employment also need to be projected to 1970. The interindustry employment table used in this bulletin reflects the pro jection of both input-output relationships and unit labor requirements to 1970. Input-Output Coefficients Causes of changes in coefficients. Input-output relationships or coefficients may change for a variety of reasons. Obviously, technolog ical change is a major factor underlying changes in coefficients, from period to period. For example, the introduction of nuclear electric power plants requires a new input--nuclear fuel. Growth of nuclear electric power reduces the relative need for other fuels such as coal and gas. Other factors such as product mix or price changes can also cause significant changes in coefficients. Product mix problems result from the industry classification used. In dividing the U.S. economy into about 80 sectors, very large industry groups such as "food and kindred products" or "chemicals" are created. These large sectors include dif ferent commodities and services, each with its own set of input require ments. If the output of the various commodities changes at different 31/ In concept, there should be a separate interindustry employment table for each set of final demand projections. Only the one that is used for converting the "bill of goods" in the basic 4-percent unemploy ment model into employment is shown. The implied differences in produc tivity are discussed on page 101. 85 86 rates, then the total input coefficients of the sector may also be changed. This can occur even if there are no technological changes in the producing industries. For example, plastics and rubber are both included in the "rubber and miscellaneous plastics products" sector. Since the output of plastic products is growing more rapidly than rubber products and the material and service requirements of each differ, then the sector coefficients may change for this reason alone. Price competition can also change coefficients. Iron ore and scrap are the two basic and interchangeable sources of raw material for the steel industry. The current technological trend is toward the use of more iron ore and less scrap. However, in 1963 the use of scrap increased relative to iron ore due, in part, to the low price of scrap in that year. Another kind of coefficient change, difficult to project, arises from the definition of an industry's output. The input-output system generally records market transactions. Many intermediate materials may not go through a market transaction. Instead, these materials may be produced and used within a single plant. If the operation of an indus try changes so that more of a previously purchased "intermediate" is now manufactured intraplant, then the input-output coefficient may be affected. Other sources of coefficient changes arise from design changes, varying levels of output requiring different mixes of materials, and mixes of several processes using different materials for manufacturing the same final product. Most coefficients change slowly, since existing processes often use long-lived capital equipment. Even a profitable innovation, such as the basic oxygen steel furnace (BOF), takes time to become widely adopted throughout the industry. Oxygen furnaces were first introduced into the United States in 1954. In the first three quarters of 1965, they still accounted for only about 17 percent of ingot steel output. This process is spreading rapidly, however, and it is estimated that the BOF will pro vide over 40 percent of total ingot supply by 1970. A variety of methods are used to estimate the 1970 coefficients. In general, the approaches include analyses of specific industries and coefficients and more general methods which cover all coefficients. The coefficient projections used to develop the 1970 interindustry table represent a synthesis of both approaches. The projections are generally based on an evaluation of past trends in coefficients, to the extent that these can be ascertained. They are modified in a number of areas to take account of changing technology and other factors. Some of the techniques and studies used to develop 1970 coefficients are described below. 87 Detailed industry studies. The projections of inputs for the agri cultural sector were developed by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.32/ The coefficient projections for the live stock and crop sectors were part of a broad analysis of agriculture. Inputs such as fertilizer, feed, seed, petroleum products, etc., were estimated within a framework of projected yields, acreage planted, trends in per capita food and textile consumption, etc. The broad scope of these estimates was made possible by the wealth of available data. The study indicates that selected purchased inputs, including agri cultural services, fertilizers, insecticides, lime, and seed are rising relative to output. Sectors supplying these inputs are agricultural services, chemicals, and trade. The long-term trend in agriculture toward using more purchased materials and services and fewer selfsupplied inputs is expected to continue. For example, farmers increas ingly are purchasing high-grade seed instead of retaining a portion of the crop for this purpose. Significant expansion has already occurred in services provided to farmers. Such services, provided both by ser vice and trade establishments, include feed and fertilizer mixing, deliv ery to the farm, and distribution of fertilizer and insecticides directly on the fields and crops. The above trends are resulting in large investments being made in fertilizer, sulphuric acid, and related plants and in the development of supporting mineral industries, such as sulphur and phosphate mining. The growth in both custom material mixing and the service requirements of farmers is resulting in a number of new establishments specializing in these activities. Such establishments are often sponsored by or are part of large manufacturers of agricultural materials, such as fertil izers . In contrast to the agricultural sector's wealth of data on inputs, the data on intermediate inputs into the minerals sector are quite limited. In addition, the diversity of mining operations, even within a single industry, makes any given mining operation unique. As a result, the Bureau of Mines 33/ projections of input coefficients for the miner als sectors were based, to a considerable extent on the knowledge and experience of its industry specialists. This was the only way these 32/ The work in this area was under the direct supervision of the late Robert Masucci. 33/ The projections by the Bureau of Mines were coordinated by Robert Johnson, Jr., under the direction of William Vogley, Chief Econ omist for that Bureau. 88 estimates could be developed short of an extensive survey. It should be noted here that Bureau of Mines data on output and uses of minerals were very useful in developing coefficient projections in the mineral and ore processing manufacturing industries. Projections for other important sectors of the economy were devel oped by the Harvard Economic Research Project.34/ These were based on individual industry studies and across-the-board approaches. The indus try studies covered the more important inputs into a number of manufac turing industries, particularly the textiles, glass, and metalworking sectors. They also covered several nonmanufacturing industries, includ ing gas and electric utilities and transportation.35/ Summaries of tech nological developments in two major sectors--steel and textiles--may be useful in illustrating the approach used in these studies. Technological change in the iron and steel sector, particularly through the introduction of new and improved types of capital equipment, often results in a different and, in net, more economical material use per unit of final product. Three major materials of steelmaking have been affected--oxygen, iron ore, and scrap. The greater use of oxygen has contributed significantly to the im proved rates of output in steelmaking. BOF, which require large quanti ties of oxygen, are replacing open hearth furnaces at a rapid rate. The industry has also found that the speed and efficiency of both open hearth and blast furnaces are increased by the use of oxygen. In these two stages of steelmaking, the cost of converting furnaces to the use of oxy gen is relatively modest. However, a nearby source of vast quantities of oxygen is generally needed. Oxygen plants, requiring large invest ments, are therefore being added to the traditional steel triumvirate of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and steel mills. In some cases, the oxygen plant is owned by the steel company, and the oxygen becomes "produced and consumed" in a single establishment. Thus, it is not included in input-output coefficients. In other cases, it is purchased or transferred from the oxygen plant operator and repre sents an interplant transfer. These transfers are counted in computing the coefficient. Therefore, the projected coefficient for oxygen in 1970 includes an estimate of the possible degree of integration in the production of oxygen. 34/ The work on coefficient projections at the Harvard Economic Research Project is under the direction of Dr. Anne Carter. Professor Wassily Leontief is the Director of the Harvard Economic Research Pro ject. 35/ See the bibliography for the industries covered by the Harvard Economic Research Project program. 89 Continuous casting is another new process requiring sizable new in vestment. In this process, slabs and billets are cast directly from molten metal, eliminating the previous ingot stage which required hand ling and reheating prior to being rolled into slabs and billets. This bypassing of several steps in the processing of raw materials not only cuts costs, but also results in the saving of scrap formerly generated in the old process. Continuous casting, presently quite small, is grow ing rapidly and is expected to be significant by 1970. Iron ore and scrap are the two basic sources of metal in the steel industry. In the last decade, the depletion of domestic high-grade ore sources has been an impetus to the development of processes for upgrad ing the vast quantities of available leaner grades. These new techniques result in a processed ore with a higher iron content and more optimal forms than even the old high-grade natural ore. Such processed ore com mands a premium price, as it results in substantial savings of time and material in the operation of blast furnaces. However, the lean ore re quires a very large capital expenditure at or near the mine, as the pro cessing is a factory-type operation. The efficiency of processed ore is such that, by 1970, virtually all ore will be processed before being used in blast furnaces. New developments have also had a significant influence on the scrap sector. So far, the rapidly growing basic oxygen process has been lim ited in the extent to which scrap can be used, while the cost of iron derived from iron ore has been reduced. On the other hand, the output of electric furnaces, which are heavy scrap users, is growing. More re cently, the resurgence in the use of castings, made in large part from scrap, has bolstered the scrap market. Mounting supplies of scrap and the weakening in the market for low-grade scrap, however, has placed considerable downward pressure on scrap prices. As a result, the scrap industry has been required to improve its product by better grading and classification. There are indications that some scrap dealers may be come pig iron suppliers by converting the scrap into ingot pig, espe cially for foundry (castings) uses. In general, it can be assumed that the industry may change, but scrap use will remain at a high level. For many years, the steel sector has been successfully decreasing the quantity of coal (coke) used per ton of steel output. This is expected to continue as improved iron ore requires less coke and as con tinuous casting eliminates the "soaking" or reheating of ingots. These improvements will also help to conserve the limited supplies of highgrade coking coal. An important aspect of these and other changes is the decreased amount of waste and scrap arising in internal operations, which means that less material and raw steel are needed per unit of final product. Ore "fines" (small ore particles), previously vulnerable to losses are rendered more usable through new processes. Larger heats (batches) in 239-877 0 - 6 6 - 7 90 blast furnaces and elimination of scrap made possible by continuous casting are examples of material saving operations. On the other hand, steel products are often being upgraded or changed, with the result that losses at subsequent processing operations may be greater. For example, more intensive processing, such as finer machining, may create more scrap than previously. Net losses due to this type of change are hard to measure, and no specific estimate of such changes are included in the 1970 projections. The textile area, studied by the Harvard Economic Research Project, includes several sectors in the input-output system. Significant trends in materials use show a continuation of the substitution of synthetics for natural fibers, substitution of noncellulosics 36/ (such as nylon) for cellulosics (rayon), and the increased use of chemicals. Increased use of synthetics is derived by pure substitution (i.e., rayon for cotton) and by partial substitution, as in blends. Blends of natural and synthetic fiber impart the useful qualities of each fiber to the fabric. Initially, blends tend to displace natural fibers but in the longrun they may add an element of stability to the natural fiber market. That is, the natural fiber may share in the increased use of the blended fabric. Nevertheless, the continuing rapid growth in syn thetics has led to 1970 coefficients which assume an increase in their relative share of the fiber market. Also, other uses, beyond those available to the natural fibers, have been found for the synthetic mate rials. An example is the use of nylon instead of metal for rollers and bearings. In addition, the relatively new cellulosic fibers are themselves being displaced by noncellulosics and fiberglass. Recent improvements in the cellulosics (sometimes so different as to require a new plant) are aiding this type of fiber in its contest for a share of the market, but the newer noncellulosic fibers continue to grow rapidly. Fibers with unusual qualities are being made from other materials, such as bo rates and will probably be in use by 1970. Increased use of chemicals in textiles is an outgrowth of success ful efforts at imparting new and useful qualities to cloth (permanent press characteristics, dirt shedding ability, etc.). Many of these processes require some type of chemical coating or treatment of the fabric to obtain the desired result. Therefore, the chemical input into the textile sectors has been increased significantly for 1970. General approaches. In addition to the industry studies described above, the Harvard Economic Research Project used another approach to the projection of coefficients to 1970. This involved aggregation and adjustment of the earlier and more detailed 1947 input-output table so 36/ Cellulosics (rayon) are made from wood pulp, i.e., cellulose. The term noncellulosics refers primarily to petroleum-based fibers, such as nylon. Use of fiberglass made from glass is also growing rapidly. 91 as to make it consistent with the more recent 1958 input-output table. The two tables were then compared to ascertain the major changes in co efficients between 1947-58. The projections developed by the Harvard Project were based in part on the analysis of the 1947-58 coefficient changes. The 1947-58 changes were not extrapolated mechanically but were used, along with information from a wide variety of sources, to develop coefficient projections on a selective basis. Another general approach to the analysis of aggregate coefficient changes was developed by BLS, Division of Economic Growth. It was used to ascertain the change between 1958 and 1962. This method involves several steps. First, estimates are developed of total output and final demand for each industry during a particular year--in this instance, 1962.37/ Deducting the estimate of final demand from industry output yields an estimate of actual intermediate output. In the second step, another estimate of intermediate demand is derived by applying the 1958 coefficient matrix to the actual 1962 outputs. If there have been no substantial changes in input-output coefficients since the base period (1958), application of the base year coefficients to the industry output levels for the more recent year should yield approximately the same esti mate of total intermediate output as the "actual" intermediate output. If the two estimates differ, this implies that, in the aggregate, the intermediate industries using a particular industry's output have in creased or decreased their use of this industry's product or service per dollar of their own output. The method is useful in determining how coefficients have changed in the aggregate; that is, for the total intermediate use of the output of a particular industry. It does not indicate how the change may be distributed among the individual consuming industries. The coefficient changes implied by the 1962 study were compared with similar estimates derived from a 1961 input-output table being developed by the Office of Business Economics. This comparison attempted to determine whether the derived changes in coefficients reflected a time trend. The rates of coefficient change implied by the 1962 study, modified on the basis of the 1961-62 compari son, were used as a check on the independent industry coefficient projec tions and also to determine whether further coefficient changes were needed. In some cases the study results justified adjustments to the independently estimated coefficients. Also, a number of previously un changed 1958 coefficients were modified for inclusion in the 1970 inputoutput chart. 37/ The 1962 final demand estimates, used as part of the method to determine coefficient changes between 1958 and 1962, are the same esti mates used in the previous chapter on changes in the final demand "bills of goods." 92 The estimates from both approaches--the individual industry analyses and the general approach--were combined to complete a coefficient matrix for 1970. Precedence was given to those coefficients derived from anal ysis of individual industries, with the residual coefficients determined through the more aggregative approaches. However, before inclusion in the final set of coefficient projections, the projections developed in the individual industry studies were reviewed. In a number of instances, they were modified on the basis of additional information. The final input-output coefficient projections, as in other parts of the economic growth model, were arrived at after a series of successive approximations. 1970 coefficient projections. A change in the unit requirements (coefficients) for intermediate materials and services affects both the industry in which the change takes place and the industry which produces the intermediate good or service. The projections of the input-output coefficients can, therefore, be described in terms of the change in input coefficients of the purchasing industry or from the viewpoint of the net impact on the producing industry. The section on detailed industry studies discussed coefficient pro jections in which the analysis was focused on the industry as a consumer of other industry products. In this section the discussion will examine the impact of coefficient changes on industries from a different viewpoint--namely, as a seller of output to other industries. Table V-l summarizes the net impact of the coefficient projections on the industries producing intermediate goods and services. It shows, for example, that by 1970 the coal requirements per dollar of output of all intermediate coal-using industries (excluding final demand use of coal) is projected to be about 82 percent of the 1958 level. This is a decline of about 18 percent. This does not mean that coal output is pro jected to decline by this amount. The industries using coal may grow sufficiently so that their combined coal requirements may, in fact, increase. Collectively, however, their coal requirements per dollar of output are declining. In a similar fashion column 1 of the table shows the direct effect, on the output of each industry, of the weighted change (1958-70) in unit requirements by all intermediate users of the industry*s output. The second column indicates the average annual rate of change between 1958 and 1970. The third column provides information on how much of the total output of each industry is consumed by intermediate industries, as distinguished from consumer, government, investment, and net export demand. It might be useful to summarize the major impact of the coefficient changes for selected industries. In industry 1, livestock and products, the modest decrease is due in part to the relative decline in the sale 93 of dairy products to food processing, per dollar of output. A contrib uting factor in this general change is the increased amount of process ing by the food and kindred products industry. Industry 2, other agricultural products, is comprised of all farm crops. The decline here is brought about by several factors, including reductions as inputs into food processing (industry 14), tobacco (indus try 15), and textiles (industries 16 and 17). The latter involves the substitution of synthetics for cotton. This substitution is offset elsewhere in the table by the growth in the use of synthetic fibers (industry 28). The projected growth in iron ore (industry 5) results from the in creased use of this ore by the primary iron and steel manufacturing industry. This is due to the fact that the oxygen process, which is re placing the open hearth process, is limited in the quantity of scrap it can use. As a result, more pig iron is needed, and blast furnaces which use more iron ore will supply more of the raw material for steel. The decline in the coefficient for coal mining (industry 7) results from three major contributing factors. The first of these is the declin ing use of coal for process heat. The second is the general decline due to the competition from other fuels, such as gas and oil. The third factor is the increasing efficiency in the use of coal. This is true for uses in processing, generation of electric energy, and steelmaking. It was noted earlier that there are several reasons, other than a change in technology, why coefficients can change in an industry. An illustration of this can be seen in ordnance and accessories (industry 13). A part of the drastic decline projected for industry 13 is due to the expanding practice of the defense sector to buy all items of a sys tem directly and provide them for private prime contractors as govern ment-furnished equipment. This operates, in the input-output system, as a cutting back in intermediate transactions between the various sectors, particularly the ordnance and aircraft industries. Another example can be seen in the aircraft industry, which produces missiles as a secondary product. That is, proportionately more and more missile production is being done in the ordnance industry, where it is a primary product, than in the aircraft industry. As a result, the reduction in the fictitious sales or transfers of missiles to the ordnance industry shows up as a coefficient reduction for the output of the aircraft industry. In the lumber and wood products sector (industry 20) the modest growth rate of the coefficient has masked the spectacular growth in the use of plywood. Other lumber products are growing more slowly. Wooden containers (industry 21) has a very sharp decline in its co efficient. This decline is attributable to competitive inroads of other materials in providing alternative packaging or containers. Also some 9^ industries which still use wooden containers are purchasing the raw mate rials and fabricating the wooden containers themselves. The net result of these two factors is the sharp drop in intermediate output relative to 1958. The printing and publishing industry (26) is another illustration of coefficient change which is nontechnological. A large part of the output of printing and publishing is the advertising revenue of news papers and magazines. In the input-output system, this revenue is transferred to industry 73, business services, which includes advertising. In the business services sector, other forms of advertising revenue, largely TV, are expected to grow at a very rapid rate. Since this is true, the projected advertising revenues of publications will be a lesser part of total advertising revenue in 1970 than in 1958. In this industry, the coefficient decline comes from a slower growth of newspaper and mag azine advertising than that expected for TV advertising. The chemicals industry (27) coefficient index is increasing. This is due to several factors. First, a number of basic chemicals are con tinuing their growth. An important example is the expansion of chemi cals into the fertilizer sector.38/ Second, certain customers, such as the apparel and textile industries, are increasing their use of chemi cals. As mentioned previously, this is for the treatment of materials to give them greater qualities of resistance to dirt and wrinkling. Other uses of chemicals which show rapid growth are fertilizer by the agricultural sector and oxygen by the iron and steel industry. Petrochemicals, which are products of the petroleum industry (31), supply the primary inputs for plastics and synthetics. Petrochemicals are growing very rapidly. However, this growth is obscured by the rel atively slower growth of fuel oils, which are the major products of the petroleum industry. Plastics and synthetic materials (industry 28) also show an increase which is widespread throughout most intermediate users. At the same time, it is large in relation to the coefficient changes of other industries. This change is a continuation of the expansion of plastics and synthetic materials into a wide range of manufactured items, such as textiles, containers, building materials, and a wide variety of household items. There is a projected decline for the coefficient in industry 33, leather tanning and industrial leather products. It is related, in part, to the substitution of other materials--such as "corfam" for leather. 38/ Since fertilizer and basic organic and inorganic chemicals are both in the same sectors, this change is, in fact, an increase of the intraindustry transactions or purchases by this industry from itself. 95 The coefficient projections show moderate declines in the use per unit of output of primary iron and steel (industry 37) and moderate in creases for primary nonferrous metals (industry 38). The increase in the nonferrous metal industry is almost entirely due to the expanded use of aluminum rather than any of the other nonferrous metals. The decline in the coefficient index of stampings, screw machine products, and bolts (industry 41) is due partly to the increase in new and alternative fastening methods. Epoxy glues are an example of these newer developments. Industry 51, office computing and accounting machines, shows no change in its coefficient index. This rather surprising result is due to two factors. First, much of the output goes into capital equipment and thus is not in the intermediate output. Second, receipts from leas ing of business machines are a declining portion of this industry's output, since more firms are purchasing these machines directly.39/ Industry 56, radio, TV, and communication equipment, shows the largest coefficient increase of any industry. This is related to a gen eral and widespread increase in the use of communications. With the ex pansion of communications equipment, an increase in the proportion of the cost of each industry's output must go for spare parts for this equipment. At the same time, and perhaps the most important, there is a very large expansion in the amount of electronic equipment --guidance, radar, and sonar--which goes into most military hardware. Closely rela ted to this industry is sector 57, electronic components. This industry supplies the basic inputs--transistors, tunnel diodes, and capacitors-used in television sets, military equipment, and computers. The increase for electric, gas, water, and sanitary services (indus try 68) reflects the widespread expansion in the power requirements, per dollar of output, for most manufacturing and a number of nonmanufacturing industries. Industry 75, automobile repair and services includes truck and auto leasing. The increased coefficients projected are related to the expanded use of motor vehicles, particularly trucks in business and truck and auto leasing. Construction coefficient projections. Although the input-output table shows all new construction as a single industry (industry 11), the coefficients for this industry are a weighted average of coefficients 39/ Leasing receipts are considered a secondary product of sector 51 and are transferred to the primary industry--in this case sector 73. 96 for many different types of new construction-highway, residential, etc. Information on the inputs for various types of construction was devel oped by the Office of Business Economics as part of its basic 1958 input-output study.40/ These estimates were based, in part, on informa tion obtained by BLS in its studies of direct and indirect employment generated by various types of construction.41/ The coefficients for the new construction industry in the 1970 interindustry employment table are derived by combining the coefficients for each type of construction. This method takes into account the rela tive growth rate projected for each type of construction between 1958 and 1970. In addition, the coefficients for two major types of construc tion, single family housing and highway construction, have been modified to take account of changes in material requirements projected to 1970.42/ The study on single family housing indicates the increasing impor tance of prefabricated components. Although newer materials are being used, such materials often come from the traditional supplying industries. As a result, coefficient changes in this respect are relatively modest. An exception occurs in the use of wood, for which the decline per unit is noteworthy. In the case of highways, the type of highway being built is unques tionably being improved. These better highways require more material per mile of road. However, the unit of highway construction is $1 mil lion of contract cost. Changes in this unit are less than the changes would have been per mile. Further, many of the technological innova tions in highway construction are laborsaving rather than material saving. As a result, drastic changes in coefficients are the exception. Here also, the projected decline in wood use is significant. Blast ing powder (from chemicals) is declining because of cheaper explosives rather than a lesser use of blasting. Steel use patterns are changing in that some of the steel now comes from the prestressed and preformed components. These components replace some of the former direct steel use by the contractor. The input from the stone and clay manufacturing sector is increas ing due to the type of road. There is an increased use of prefab cement and concrete products. Bitumens are declining slightly in the Federal 40/ Norman Frumkin, "Construction Activity in the 1958 Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business, May 1965, pp. 13-24. 41/ Claiborne M. Ball, "Employment Effects of Construction Expend itures," Monthly Labor Review, February 1965,pp. 154-158. 42/ Jack Faucett Associates, Projections to 1970 of Input Coeffi cients for Selected Construction Activities (unpublished), Silver Spring, Maryland, July 1964. 97 aid highway program. However, little information is available on the status of non-Federal aid roads. Therefore, the coefficient has not been changed. Output Per Man-Hour Method. The impact of changes in material and service coefficients on output and, therefore, employment varies from industry to industry. In some cases, as in coal mining, employment is reduced. In others, such as plastics and synthetic materials, employment is increased as a result of the substitution of new materials for older types. In contrast, long term changes in unit labor requirements or its reciprocal, output per man-hour, have almost always resulted in reductions in manpower require ments. The 1970 interindustry employment table attempts to take account of the combined effect of both of these projected changes. The inputoutput coefficient changes have already been discussed. This section is concerned with the other element in the table--the projections of output per man-hour. The projections of output per man-hour are developed initially on the basis of preliminary estimates of past trends in industry productiv ity. The trend during the 1957-63 period is used for the initial pro jection. Prior to the current period, 1957 is the last year in which unemployment was close to 4 percent and 1963 is the latest year for which comprehensive, but still preliminary, estimates of industry output are available. Furthermore, the average annual rate of increase in total private output per man-hour for the 1957-63 period is about the same as that for the 1957-65 period. This period was used as the basis for projecting private output per man-hour to 1970 in chapter II. The initial projections of output per man-hour for a number of in dustries have been reviewed and modified to take into account a variety of special factors. The projections have been modified in most cases where the derived industry output rate is substantially higher or lower than the past rate. The historical trend in output per man-hour is, therefore, not considered consistent with the projected rate of output. For some industries, both data on employment and rough indicators of output between 1963 and 1965 imply substantial departure from the past rate of productivity. In such instances, the projections of output per man-hour have been adjusted to reflect, to some extent, the more recent changes. In a few industries, the projection based on the 1957-63 trend has been modified, because the product mix of the projected period is different from that of the past period. Industry classification problems may also distort past rates of increase in output per man-hour. 98 In addition, for several industries where there are indications of significant technological changes, allowances have been made for accel eration in the rate of productivity gain. Pro jections--1963-70. As previously indicated in the discussion of the factors underlying the 1970 projections of potential GNP (chapter II), the average rate of increase in output per man-hour for all indus tries in the private sector is 3.2 percent a year. (Productivity in the government sector, consistent with the treatment in the national income constant dollar accounts, is assumed to remain unchanged.) Within the private sector, there is a wide range of industry pro ductivity gains around the 3.2 percent average. Agricultural productiv ity, at 5.5 percent a year, is projected to continue to grow at almost twice the rate of the nonfarm economy. Within the nonfarm sector, the manufacturing industries as a whole are projected to achieve a somewhat higher rate of productivity growth than the nonfarm average of 2.9 per cent a year. Some of the nondurable manufacturing industries, particularly the highly automated processing industries--chemicals, paints, petroleum refining, etc. --are projected to maintain their higher than average in creases in productivity. Food processing, tobacco, and the drug, clean ing, and toilet preparations industries are other nondurable manufactur ing industries projected to increase faster than the average. Industries with lower than average gains include the paperboard containers and boxes and the leather, footwear, and leather products industries. Productivity gains in remaining nondurable industries are projected at about the 3.2 percent average of the private sector. In the durable manufacturing sector, above average increases in pro ductivity are concentrated for the most part in selected machinery indus tries. These include office computing and accounting machines; service industry machines; electric transmission and distribution equipment; household appliances; radio, television and communications equipment; and miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment. Motor vehicles and instruments are also projected at above average rates. Lower than average increases are projected for furniture; stamping and screw machine products; other fabricated metal products; farm machinery; metalworking machinery; general industry machinery and equipment; machine shop prod ucts; electric wiring and lighting equipment; and aircraft and other transportation equipment. Productivity in the remaining durable manu facturing industries are projected at about the average rates for the private sector. In the nonmanufacturing group, higher than average increases in pro ductivity are expected to continue in mining, transportation, public util ities, and communication. On the other hand, there are lower than aver age increases in trade, services, construction, and finance and real estate. It should be pointed out that there are difficult conceptual and 99 statistical problems involved in measuring the output of many of the industries in this latter group. The available measures for these indus tries may understate output and, therefore, understate productivity changes. Output per man-hour for the economy as a whole and for each indus try was assumed to be the same for all the models in the first approxi mation for deriving employment. Theoretically, this could prove incon sistent, since the changing importance of industries with different levels of productivity could affect the weighted averages for the total economy and require changes in the aggregate GNP. Actually, the overall impact of industry shift among the models was less than 0.1 percent a year. The aggregate was not changed, nor was total employment. The effect of industry shift, such as it was, is then implicitly reflected in slight variations in industry productivity among the various models. Annual Hours Per Worker To translate output per man-hour projections into output per worker requires projections of annual hours per worker. To be consistent with establishment employment as explained in chapter II, hours are defined as payroll hours per worker, including paid leave, holidays,43/ etc. Part-time employment, either by dual jobholders or part-time workers, lowers the level of average hours. An increase in the number of parttime employees results in a decline in average hours, even if the hours of full-time employees have not changed. The labor force projections imply substantial increases in workers (youths and women) who may be seeking part-time work. Trends in average hours were projected for major industry groups and then applied to each industry within the group. The projections were made after consideration of long-term trends in average hours and changes within subperiods. For manufacturing, stability in average hours is projected to occur after some reduction from the high levels of overtime in the 1963-65 period. Annual hours in the nonmanufacturing sector are expected to con tinue to decline. Hours in the trade and service industries are project ed to decline faster than the average for nonmanufacturing. Lower hours in trade and services are a result of increases in part-time employment and continuation, at a reduced rate, of the secular decline in average hours of full-time employees. 43/ For a discussion of the concepts of hours paid and hours worked and their impact on the measurement of output per man-hour see, Trends in Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy, 1909-1958 (BLS Bulletin 1249, 1960). 100 Average hours in construction are expected to decline at a long term rate which is below that for the nonfarm private sector. Hours in the other nonmanufacturing industries--mining, utilities, finance, insur ance,and transportation--are expected to decline only slightly, as the long-term secular reduction in hours in these areas is moderated. Assumptions about the trend in average hours are the same in all of the models. Differences in the average hours due to industry weighting are negligible. The Interindustry Employment Table The 1970 interindustry employment table combines the projections of input-output coefficients with those of productivity (adjusted for chang es in hours of work). These form a comprehensive and consistent set of estimates of total employment in 1970 attributable to a billion dollars of delivery to final demand by each industry in the economy. The bil lion dollars of sales to final demand is at producers' value, 1958 prices. Employment includes proprietors and unpaid family workers, as well as wage and salary workers. Total employment covers primary employ ment in the industry producing the particular product or service, and indirect employment covering employment in each of the supporting indus tries. These estimates refer to jobs rather than number of persons, be cause the employment estimates are based primarily on payroll reports from establishments. Primary employment covers employment initially required in the in dustry producing the product or service. Thus, it includes the produc tion of parts within the industry as well as the production of the final product. For example, workers employed in both the pig iron stage and the finishing stages of the steelmaking process are counted as primary employment in the steel industry. Primary employment is defined to in clude also some small additional employment in the initial industry, due to the "feedback" effect. For example, the additional employment in the steel industry required to produce steel for repair parts for trucks which transport materials used in the steelmaking process are considered part of primary employment. The detailed interindustry employment table is included in the appendix to this bulletin. (See table A-3.) However a summary version 101 of the table (table V-2) is provided below.44/ For the summary table, the detailed industry estimates of indirect employment have been aggre gated into nine major sectors. Also, the manufacturing employment esti mates have been further distributed into durable and nondurable industry subgroups. As a measure of the extent to which the employment impact ramifies beyond the initial employment, the table shows the ratio of in direct to primary employment generated by a billion dollars of delivery to final demand.45/ An example from the summary table will illustrate the way the inter industry employment implications are traced for a billion dollars of de livery to final demand. In industry 22, household furniture, 115,930 jobs would be generated in 1970 by a billion dollars of delivery of the products of this industry to final demand. Of this total, there would be 66,470 jobs in the industry itself and an additional 49,460 jobs in the industries supplying the raw materials, parts, trade and transporta tion, and miscellaneous services, required to produce the end product. As the table shows, most of the indirect employment would be in manufac turing (lumber and wood products, fabrics, and rubber and plastics prod ucts), with employment of 27,988. There are 2,871 employed in agricul ture and forestry, and additional numbers employed in the transportation, trade, and service industries. Thus, for every 100 jobs in the house hold furniture industry, there would be about 74 additional jobs in the various supporting industries. 44/ The consolidated 1970 interindustry employment table differs in several respects from a similar table for the year 1962, published in the Monthly Labor Review, July 1965, pp. 841-850. The earlier table was based on the original 1958 input-output coefficients, and no attempt was made to project them to a later date. However, the unit labor require ments estimates were brought forward to 1962. The delivery to final demand was stated in 1962 prices. The 1970 table is based on projections to 1970 of both the inputoutput coefficient and unit labor requirements. Also, in order to be consistent with the price level used in the basic input-output table and the constant dollar estimates of final demand, the billion dollars of final demand expenditures for the output of each industry are in 1958 prices. 45/ The 1970 interindustry employment table excludes all producing industries which, in the input-output system, do not purchase products or services from other industries and would not, therefore, generate in direct employment requirements. Industries excluded are industry 80, gross imports of goods and services; industry 83, scrap, used and second hand goods; industry 84, government industry (covers general government employment and excludes purchases); industry 85, rest of the world; and industry 86, household industry (domestics). 102 Analysis of the table reveals a wide range in the total employment attributable to the sales from the various industries. The figures range from about 31,000 jobs per billion dollars of sales by industry 71, real estate and rentals, to about 182,000 jobs per billion dollars of sales by industry 72, personal and repair services, excluding auto repair. This is better than a 5 to 1 range. Variations in employment per billion dollars of output reflect not only differences in productivity, but also the particular definitions of output and employment used in this study. Productivity differences may result from the nature of the industry; capital intensive sectors, such as petroleum refining and chemicals, generate less employment per dollar than the service industries. Industries closer to the natural resource level, such as mining, will generate less indirect employment than those in the finished manufactured goods stage. In the input-output system, imports and excise taxes are included in total output, which is part of the employment-output ratio. An indus try which has relatively high proportions of either imports or excise taxes will, therefore, show lower employment per dollar of output. An other kind of definitional distinction involves the trade sector. Trade output is defined as the margin between sales and cost of goods sold. Employment per dollar of output in this industry is, therefore, much higher than it would be if measured against total sales of wholesale and retail trade. At this point, it also bears repeating that employment in this study refers to full and part-time workers, including the self-employed. Dif ferences in employment coefficients may be due to variations in the pro portion of part-time employees. These might be equalized if employment was translated into hours. The average employment per billion dollars of final demand in the total private economy, excluding domestics, is about 100,000 jobs. About 60 percent of the 100,000 would be in the industries producing, transporting, and distributing the final goods and services. The other 40 percent would be in the supporting industries. 103 Table V-l. Index of Coefficient Change, 1958-70—^ (1958-100) Industry number and title Index of coeffi cient change 1958-70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Livestock and livestock products.................. Other agricultural products............ . Forestry and fishery products.................. Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services.......... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................. . Nonferrous metal ores mining........................ Coal mining......................................... Crude ppf-rn1 eum and natural gas..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............. . Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining... ....... . New construction 3/............................... Maintenance and repair construction..... . Ordnance and a c c e s s o r i e s ... ........... . Food and kindred products........... ........... . Tobacco manufactures......... ................... Broad and narrow fabrics,yam apd thread mills...... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... Apparel............................................. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... Lumbar and wood products,except containers.......... Wooden containers...................... ...... . Household furniture........................... Other furniture and fixtures........................ Paper and allied products,except containers......... Paperboard containers and boxes... . Printing and publishing............................. Chemicals and selected chemical products... . Plastics and synthetic materials.................... Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations........ Paints and allied products................... . Petroleum refining and related industries........... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... Footwear and other leather products Glass and glass products............................ Stone and clay products........... ..... . Primary iron and steel manufacturing................ Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. Metal containers.o............................... Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products.... Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts.......... Other fabricated metal products.............. . Engines and turbines....... ...... .............. Farm machinery and equipment........................ Construction,mining,and oil field machinery....... See footnotes at end of table. 96.0 95.0 97.0 101.0 114.0 88.0 82.0 93.0 102.0 85.0 80.0 45.1 101.0 95.0 99.0 106.0 98.0 101.0 103.0 69.0 87.0 100.0 101.0 104.0 89.0 109.0 130.0 123.0 93.0 98.0 130.0 88.0 100.0 99.0 105.0 94.0 106.0 96.0 101.0 85.0 100.0 88.0 97.0 102.0 Inter Average mediate annual output as rate of percent of total change output 1970 2/ 1958-70 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 1.1 -1.1 -1.7 —0 •6 0.2 -1.4 -1.9 -6.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -3.0 -1.2 0ol 0.3 -1.0 0.7 2.2 1.7 —0 •6 -0.2 2.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.5 —0 •3 0.1 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 0.2 93.8 79.7 88.9 100.0 95.3 89.6 80.5 99.6 97.6 86.8 65.9 8.7 28.2 21.1 91.6 66.3 20.6 48.0 95.3 92.9 15.9 23.4 88.1 97.7 77.1 87.0 92.8 33.5 97.1 50.7 78.1 94.5 16.1 91.8 95.9 97.6 96.2 97.6 86.8 91.4 85.0 49.9 28.2 30.3 Table V-l. Index of Coefficient Change, 1958-70—^--Continued (1958-100) Index of coeffi cient change Industry number and title 1958-70 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 Materials handling machinery and equipment...... Metalworking machinery and equipment.... ..... ..... Special industry machinery and equipment.... . General industrial machinery and equipment........ Machine shop products........................... Office,computing,and accounting machines...... . Service industry machines.•••••..............••••• Electric industrial equipment and apparatus........• Household appliances.......... .................. Electric lighting and wiring equipment........ . Radio,television,and communication equipment..... Electronic components and accessories..... •••••••• Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment...• Motor vehicles and equipment......... .......... . Aircraft and parts•••••....•••••.......... ...... Other transportation equipment....... .......... . Scientific and controlling instruments.......... Optical,ophthalmic,and photographic equipment••...•• Miscellaneous manufacturing...................... Transportation and warehousing................... Communications; except broadcasting............... Radio and television broadcasting.••••••.......... Electrie,gas,water,and sanitary services.... •••••• Wholesale and retail trade................. . Finance and insurance................... ........ Real estate and rental....... ....... ........... Hotels;personal and repair services,except auto.... Business services..... ...... ..... ......... Research and development............... ......... Automobile repair and services........... ........ Amusements............ ............... ........ Medical,educational and nonprofit organizations. Federal Government enterprises.... ............. State and local government enterprises. Gross imports of goods and services.............. Business travel,enterta’tnrnent ,and Office supplies......... . 83 Scrap,used and secondhand goods 8 4 Government industry 85 Rest of the world industry 86 Household industry.. . . . • ....... • • • • • • • • • • • • • g i £ t s - - - - - r - - - - - - - ................................................................................................................................................................................ 110.0 97.0 91.0 113.0 112.0 100.0 119.0 100.0 126.0 106.0 166.0 117.0 105.0 103.0 66.0 100.0 125.0 100.0 100.0 101.0 117.0 100.0 125.0 93.0 100.0 100.0 95.0 119.0 110.0 120.0 90.0 100.0 84.0 98.0 . . . . 100.0 105.0 Inter mediate Average output as annual percent rate of of total change output 1970 2/ 1958-70 0.8 -0.2 -0.8 1.0 0.9 mmmm 1.5 .... 1.8 0.5 4.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 -3.5 mmmm 1.9 . . . . mmmmmmmm 0.1 1.3 1.9 -0.6 . . . . .... -0.4 1.5 0.8 1.5 -0.9 . . . . -1.5 -0.2 . . . . 0.4 48.5 50.2 24.1 63.7 94.8 27.7 37.0 58.1 22.6 80.5 33.4 79.3 66.6 38.0 20.6 22.9 51.5 37.8 38.9 61.9 50.0 98.8 60.6 27.6 54.1 31.2 20.4 88.8 49.5 46.5 37.2 5.4 78.0 89.0 M «BM M 100.0 82.0 mmm mmmm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . m m m m mmmm — — . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1/ The index of coefficient change is the weighted average change in the use of this industry's output by intermediate users* 2J This column shows the proportion of each industry's total output which goes — to intermediate users. The remaining por tion of total output would go to final demand. 3/ New construction has no coeffi cients inasmuch as none of its output is sold intermediate. 105 Table V-2. Total Employment y (Primary and Indirect) 2/ Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970 (Producers' value, 1958 prices) Employment Live stock and live stock products 1 Total..... Primary.. Indirect. 125,514 68,724 56,790 Other Forestry agricul and tural fishery products products 2 115,155 79,835 35,320 Agricul Iron and tural , ferro forestry, alloy and ores fishery mining services Nonferrous metal ores mining Coal mining Stone Crude and clay petro mining leum and and natural quarry aa ing 8 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 95,069 57,475 37,594 180,047 122,144 57,903 39,973 13,218 26,755 53,574 29,064 24,510 63,772 42,120 21,652 25,316 6,381 18,935 70,737 44,726 26,011 6,737 393 662 750 9,138 6,763 2,375 2,898 411 228 565 9,548 7,223 2,325 1,286 726 94 1,195 4,248 2,492 1,756 1,998 370 421 665 11,988 8,946 3,042 1,981 1,047 3,672 604 1,754 1,248 3,716 Distribution of indirect | Industry group Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining..................... Construction.............. (12) (13-64) Manufacturing............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durable.............. (14-19,24-34) Nondurable........... (65) Transportation............ (66-68) Communications and public utilities............... Trade...................... (69) (70-71) Finance, insurance,and real estate............. (72-79) Services and miseellaneous.................. . (1-4) Ratio of indirect to primary........... 31,187 271 1,269 8,439 2,103 6,336 2,539 11,259 524 1,467 7,288 2,689 4,599 1,723 16,162 172 549 6,291 4,169 1,528 42,078 247 852 5,225 1,761 3,464 1,442 693 5,397 809 4,431 667 2,383 611 2,582 991 2,574 1,470 3,165 2,100 2,524 2,558 1,629 1,923 2,274 1,784 3,225 1,842 3,763 3,112 5,092 3,781 .84 .51 2.97 .58 Broad and Tobacco narrow menufabrics, yarn factures and thread mills Mi scellaneous textile goods and floor coverings 4,897 5,290 7,289 3,241 .83 .44 .65 .47 Cheadcal and fertilizer mineral mining Total..... Primary.. Indirect. 2,122 MainteNew nance and Ordnance construe- repair and action construe- cessories tion 10 11 44,713 21,582 23,131 102,694 46,719 55,975 12 91,527 62,716 28,811 13 85,894 41,861 44,033 / 531 1,311 996 8,264 6,144 2,120 3,428 2.02 Food and kindred products 14 91,686 24,571 67,115 15 50,424 10,896 39,528 16 17 Apparel 18 91,928 47,044 44,884 66,761 22,405 44,356 124,795 77,606 47,189 Distribution of indirect Industry group Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining..................... Construction.............. (12) Manufacturing............. (13-64) (13,20-23,35-64) Durable.............. (14-19,24-34) Nondurable........... (65) Transportation............ (66-68) Communications and public utilities............... Trade...................... (69) (70-71) Finance, insurance and real estate............. (72-79) Services and miscellaneous....... (1-4) Ratio of indirect to primary........... See footnotes at end of table. 239-877 0-66-8 381 1,097 677 7,210 4,554 2,656 4,741 1,753 1,383 655 28,020 23,545 4,475 3,829 613 842 — 14,208 10,916 3,292 2,060 626 499 525 29,150 24,803 4,347 2,229 37,623 316 1,084 8,713 4,195 4,518 4,116 18,464 207 504 7,164 1,846 5,318 1,643 11,362 478 786 14,420 2,942 11,478 3,542 4,350 338 616 22,184 2,755 19,429 3,433 4,989 245 569 25,909 2,914 22,995 2,281 1,293 2,865 1,094 8,618 523 6,614 829 4,151 900 5,738 626 2,590 1,040 5,532 845 5,799 801 5,274 1,288 2,060 1,028 1,482 1,986 1,127 2,020 2,130 1,868 3,574 8,569 2,916 4,539 6,638 7,203 5,703 4,666 5,248 .46 1.05 2.73 3.63 .95 1.98 .61 1.07 1.20 106 Table V-2. Total Employment v (Primary and Indirect) 2/ Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970--Continued (Producers' value, 1958 prices) Employment Miscel laneous fabri cated textile products 19 Total..................................... 111,700 47,556 64,144 Lumber and wood products, except con tainers 20 109,904 69,231 40,673 Wooden con tainers 21 141,367 77,571 63,796 House hold furni ture Other furni ture and fix tures Paper and allied prod ucts, except con tainers Paperboard con tainers and boxes Print ing and pub lishing Chemi cals and selected chemi cal prod ucts 22 23 24 25 115,930 66,470 49,460 96,918 52,854 44,064 70,487 32,727 37,760 81,044 36,293 44,751 100,229 65,189 35,040 56,076 23,067 33,009 1,032 287 905 13,887 3,870 10,017 2,755 1,435 1,830 747 11,145 5,243 5,902 4,043 26 27 Distribution of Indirect Industry group (1-4) Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining..................... (12) Construction............. . (13-64) Manufacturing.............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durable............... (14-19,24-34) Nondurable............ (65) Transportation............. (66-68) Communications and public utilities................ (69) Trade....................... (70-71) Finance, insurance,and real estate.......... . (72-79) Services and miscellan eous......... ............ Ratio of indirect to primary............ 5,811 333 680 38,786 4,184 34,602 3,009 12,705 280 774 8,384 3,655 4,729 4,712 5,576 333 721 37,564 34,144 3,420 4,590 946 6,894 848 5,330 932 6,193 1,990 1,895 5,696 1.35 Plastics and syn thetic mat e rials 28 Total.... Primary. Indirect 59,923 21,753 38,170 1,331 551 581 25,633 19,449 6,184 2,795 1,825 777 916 17,094 9,165 7,929 3,938 1,085 457 892 25,658 5,718 19,940 4,008 6,093 938 5,826 1,366 4,865 5,170 1,450 3,629 1,407 4,022 1,896 1,670 1,555 1,613 1,730 2,193 2,121 5,746 5,989 5,679 4,852 5,369 4,740 8,902 6,256 .59 .82 .74 .83 1.15 1.23 .54 1.43 Drugs, clean ing, and toilet prepara tions Paints and allied prod ucts Petro leum refin ing and related indus tries Rubber and miscel laneous plas tics prod ucts Leather tanning and indus trial leather prod ucts Foot wear and other leather prod ucts 29 65,188 17,378 47,810 30 62,223 19,012 43,211 2,871 408 626 27,988 16,866 11,122 3,125 1,002 31 33,988 6,117 27,871 32 69,458 33,523 35,935 33 1,010 35 34 55,934 36,602 19,332 Class and glass prod ucts Stone and clay prod ucts 36 138,690 101,157 37,533 78,085 46,934 31,151 74,804 42,488 32,316 1,016 634 3,939 735 9,875 4,055 5,820 4,550 1,438 3,791 Distribution of indirect Industry group Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..... (5-10) Mining.................... . Construction............... (12) (13-64) Manufacturing.............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durabl................. (14-19,24-34) Nondurable............ (65) Transportation.......... . (66-68) Cosmunications and public utilities......... ....... (69) Trade................... (70-71) Finance, insurance and real estate.............. (72-79) Services and oiscellaneous..................... (1-4) Ratio of indirect to primary......... . See footnotes at end of table. 966 981 935 18,686 3,795 14,881 3,796 1,687 599 583 18,054 5,791 12,263 2,762 1,479 828 722 21,480 5,632 15,848 4,000 1,152 3,628 1,449 3,911 1,101 1,001 5,157 2,254 1,903 6,120 1.75 596 3,594 1,056 6,331 3,221 3,110 4,125 1,032 535 627 18,734 4,976 13,758 2,943 536 381 323 7,367 2,104 5,263 2,154 411 21,417 3,636 17,781 2,072 726 976 596 13,945 6,053 7,892 2,739 960 4,306 607 3,060 752 3,843 1,340 4,068 222 1,996 2,080 2,686 1,621 1,319 1,631 1,667 1,902 16,872 6,362 6,229 5,179 3,584 6,173 5,093 5,453 2.75 2.27 4.56 1.07 .53 .37 .66 .76 107 Table V-2. Total Employment y (Primary and Indirect) 2/ Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970— Continued (Producers' value, 1958 prices) Employment Primary iron and steel manufac turing 37 71,106 3 8 j202 32 j904 Primary nonferrous metals manufac turing 38 60,857 29,929 30928 Metal con tainers 39 70,626 24^371 4 6 i255 Heating, plumb ing, and struc tural metal prod ucts 40 Stamp ings ,, screw machine prod ucts and bolts 42 41 83,215 38^503 44^712 Other fabri cated metal prod ucts 99,165 58*1158 40^977 Engines and tur bines 43 82,791 40^980 41*811 Farm machin ery and equip ment 44 Construc tion,min ing and oil field machin ery 45 70,776 29^625 41,151 83,100 39 j096 44,004 78,668 37^030 41,638 Distribution of indirect Industry group U-4) Agricultural, forestry, (5-10) (12) (13-64) {13.20-23.3 {14-19.24-34 ^ * Nondurable............ (65) (66-68) Communications and public (69) (70-71) Trade....................... Finance, insurance,and (72-79) Services and miscellan- 434 2,842 1'186 10^540 7,488 3*052 5^022 441 3,551 606 11,217 7*627 3*590 2*903 424 1,326 752 27,309 22,554 4^755 3^839 513 1,153 689 26,274 23 j156 3^118 3^158 562 1,058 670 23,749 19^628 4*121 3^003 619 1,063 636 24,062 20*117 3*945 2^893 461 724 504 25,705 22,578 3'127 2,406 708 705 572 26,115 21^819 4*296 2*615 494 783 567 24,964 21*807 3 *157 2 *,693 1,654 4^500 1,326 4*647 1,118 5*088 1,134 4^885 1,082 4 i315 1,081 4^674 844 4,004 950 4,736 981 4,619 1,814 1,799 1,727 1,824 1,787 1,667 1,480 1,694 1,629 4,908 4,437 4,677 5,086 4,739 5,114 5,027 5,904 4,905 1.03 1.90 1.16 .70 1.39 1.13 .86 Mate rials handling machin ery and equip ment 46 Primary................................ 87,580 37*954 49,626 Metal working machin ery and equip ment 47 Special indus try machin ery and equip ment 49 48 86,150 52*005 34,145 General indus trial machin ery and equip ment 85,671 44^328 41,343 Machineshop prod ucts 50 82,134 41^866 40,268 1.02 Office, com puting, and account ing machines 52 51 117,138 85^503 31,635 Service indus try machines 65,795 35*504 30,291 Elec tric indus trial equip ment and appa ratus 1.12 House hold appli ances 54 53 71,304 21,438 49,866 77,424 41,532 35,892 76,978 23,797 53,181 Distribution of indirect Industry group (1-4) Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining...................... (12) Construction............... (13-64) Manufacturing.............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durable............... (14-19,24-34) Nondurable............ (65) Transportation............. (66-68) Communications and public utilities......... (69) Trade................. . (70-71) Finance, insurance and real estate.............. (72-79) Services and miscellaneoua................•••••• Ratio of indirect to primary......... . See footnotes at end of table. 625 682 595 31,298 27,055 4,243 2,667 493 587 621 19,667 17,173 2,494 1,977 640 679 580 24,574 21,092 3,482 2,383 553 807 597 23,062 20,126 2,936 2,515 <44 797 724 16,(47 14,334 2,313 2,059 628 270 414 14,816 11,168 3,648 1,852 677 737 665 30,156 25,349 4,807 2,799 647 673 533 20,517 16,739 3,778 2,414 657 691 606 29,125 21,767 7,358 2,769 986 5,501 1,026 3,842 1,157 4,812 1,160 5,231 1,030 3,913 736 4,836 1,011 6,334 846 4,175 1,305 5,339 1,844 1,642 1,645 1,552 1,691 1,224 1,934 1,317 1,524 5,427 4,291 4,872 4,789 4,331 5,512 5,554 4,770 11,167 .93 .96 .37 .85 2.33 1.31 .66 .86 2.23 106 Table V-2. Total Employment 1/ (Primary and Indirect) 2/ Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970— Continued (Producers' value, 1958 prices) Employment Total..................................... Primary................................. Indirect.......... ..................... Elec tric light ing and wiring equip ment Radiotelevi sion,and communi cation equip ment Elec tronic com ponents and acces sories Miscel laneous elec trical machin ery and equip ment Motor vehicles and equip ment Aircraft and parts Other trans porta tion equip ment Scien tific and con trol ling instru ments Optical, ophthal mic, and photo graphic equip ment 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 85,953 46,230 39,723 76,908 32,168 44,740 81,952 46,812 35,140 81,754 37,118 44,636 67,003 19,653 47,350 73,870 45,264 28,606 91,767 45,892 45,875 81,410 41,891 39,519 75,347 41,918 33,429 Distribution of Indirect Industry group (1-4) Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining........... ......... (12) Construction............... (13-64) Manufacturing.............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durable............... (14-19,24-34) Nondurable............ (65) Transportation............. (66-68) Conmunicatlons and public utilities............... (69) Trade...................... (70-71) Finance, insurance.,and real estate............. (72-79) Services and miscellan eous ..................... 582 697 516 22,096 16,339 5,757 2,445 719 372 528 27,612 23,003 4,609 2,547 706 504 550 18,430 13,623 4,807 2,225 615 864 525 26,663 19,577 7,086 2,605 595 722 796 27,106 20,565 6,541 3,267 349 432 451 18,284 15,920 2,364 1,593 887 769 597 27,352 23,137 4,215 3,040 1,050 466 477 22,502 17,282 5,220 2,297 565 516 457 15,056 8,488 6,568 2,162 841 6,197 775 4,893 782 5,489 966 4,903 1,063 5,237 731 2,907 965 5,755 815 5,276 885 4,269 1,416 1,322 1,455 1,480 1,626 970 1,565 1,439 1,510 4,932 5,972 4,999 6,009 6,939 2,884 4,944 5,194 8,011 1.39 .75 2.41 .63 .86 Ratio of indirect to primary............ Miscel laneous man u factur ing 64 Total.... Primary., Indirect 89,890 46,857 43,033 Trans porta tion and ware housing Com munica tions; except broad casting 1.20 Radio and televi sion broad casting Elec tric , gas, water, and sanitary services 65 66 67 68 75,989 52,493 23,496 45,745 33,552 12,193 85,764 38,862 46,902 46,150 16,876 29,274 Whole sale and retail trade 69 1.00 Finance and insur ance 70 137,074 116,010 21,064 .94 Real estate and rental .80 Hotels; per sonal and repair ser vices, except auto 72 71 104,377 82,724 21,653 30,992 8,024 22,968 182,177 152,615 29,562 Distribution of Indirect Industry group (1-4) Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining..................... (12) Construction........ . (13-64) Manufacturing.............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durable............... (14-19,24-34) Nondurable............ (65) Transportation............ (66-68) Communications and public utilities............... (69) Trade...................... (70-71) Finance, insurance and real estate............. (72-79) Services and miscel laneous ............ . Ratio of indirect to primary........... See footnotes at end of table, 1,355 517 721 22,305 10,323 11,982 2,650 575 313 2,953 6,050 3,406 2,644 — 218 83 1,803 4,313 2,293 516 993 6,355 910 3,140 1,963 1,111 309 1,900 3,875 3,810 2,288 1,522 2,096 1,036 162 1,044 5,047 2,009 3,038 1,149 694 115 1,092 5,211 1,178 4,033 1,495 2,890 174 5,166 3,190 1,639 1,551 833 855 250 797 12,355 6,139 6,216 1,496 244 931 1,956 1,948 316 2,044 1,273 1,317 1,656 530 2,104 4,285 2,730 878 2,216 1,351 2,420 864 3,106 2,582 6,174 6,825 3,207 30,588 13,572 8,933 9,206 4,976 5,844 .92 .45 .36 1.73 .18 .26 2,020 725 96 1,117 7,144 3,989 3,155 1.21 — 2.86 1,102 .19 109 Table V-2. Total Employment y (Primary and Indirect) u Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970— Continued (Producers' value, 1958 prices) Employment Business services 73 74 105,260 63^791 41^469 Indirect. Research and develop ment Auto mobile repair and services 76 75 102,231 g p '885 21^346 Amuse ments 110,382 70'534 39*848 Medical, educa tional and non profit organi zations 78 77 158,921 137^245 21*676 Federal Govern ment enter prises 170,611 146^361 24^250 156,233 126*281 29^952 State and local govern ment enter prises Business travel, enter tain ment, and gifts 79 81 86,870 55^646 31^224 Office supplies 82 96,130 89,967 13,544 291 1,738 17,387 5,167 1,277 470 Distribution of indirect Industry group Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.... (5-10) Mining.......... ........... (12) Construction............... (13-64) Manufacturing.............. (13,20-23,35-64) Durable............... (14-19,24-34) Nondurable............ (65) Transportation............. (66-68) Communications and public utilities................ (69) Trade....................... (70-71) Finance, insurance, and real estate.............. (72-79) Services and mlscellan(1-4) COllS # e ......... Ratio of indirect to primary............ J 744 21,045 4,530 16,515 1,634 721 93 342 7,780 2,495 5,285 1,359 546 392 1,440 17,869 12,360 5,509 1,827 1,993 5,112 2,337 2,775 1,096 4,313 2,728 544 2,387 1,294 7,510 890 1,936 669 221 101 1,026 157 2,187 7,369 2,634 4,735 1,296 1,101 2,358 2,822 577 1,028 6,346 1,885 4,461 10,307 345 1,007 13,085 5,666 3,368 2,298 887 2,413 2,125 2,462 1,668 868 22,227 69,097 14,433 54,664 3,044 924 7,409 1,344 4,393 12,220 2,335 1,485 3,533 3,517 2,235 1,099 1,516 2,329 1,992 7,783 6,633 5,437 6,074 6,520 4,475 3,347 30,282 7,482 .65 .26 .56 .16 .17 .24 .56 J The figures in each column shorn total employment directly and Indirectly attributable to $1 billion of deliv ery to final demand by the industry named at the top. Employment shown does not include any multiplier effects from respending of income generated. 2/ Primary employment is employment required in the industry producing the product or service. This includes not only the employment initially required by this industry but any indirect employment effect from its supporting industries requirements. Indirect employment covers employment in each of the supporting industries. Employment covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and unpaid family workers. Employment is not generated by the following industries because they do not purchase goods and services from other industries: Gross imports of goods and services (80); Scrap, 957 used and second-hand goods (83); Rest of the world (85); Households (86); and Inventory valuation adjustment (87). There is no employment in Business travel, entertainment and gifts (81); and Office supplies (82) which are dumny sectors and serve in an input-output framework as a central distrib uting mechanism for items produced by various industries but with a similar distribution pattern. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. This table represents a sumnary of the information shown in table A-3. Chapter VI. Patterns of Employment, 1970 The 1970 projections of industry employment are derived by con verting the final demand projections into total employment requirements through the use of the 1970 interindustry employment table. The derived industry employment estimates are initially on an input-output industry basis. They are then adjusted to be consistent with the classification system underlying the industry estimates of employment regularly compiled and published by the BLS. One of the significant adjustments required to convert the employ ment estimates from the input-output classification to the standard industrial classification involves the construction industry. In the input-output system, the construction industry includes force account construction activity.46/ To derive contract construction employment consistent with BLS employment classification requires transfer of esti mated force account construction employees to the industries performing the construction, i.e., transportation, oil well drilling, utilities, communications, and government. The other transfers which affect employment to any significant extent involve the trade and service sectors. In the input-output sys tem, these industries are defined on an activity basis so that all serv ices performed in the trade sector are transferred to the appropriate services industry and vice versa. For example, automobile repair serv ices performed by retail automobile dealers are classified in services rather than trade. This procedure is reversed to obtain employment in these sectors consistent with the BLS classification system. In this sense, consistency refers to industry classification and not to types of workers covered. The regularly published industry employment estimates of the BLS are limited to nonagricultural wage and salary employees, excluding domestics. In order to cover the total work force, the BLS industry estimates of wage and salary employment for 1957 and other selected years have, therefore, been expanded to include self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, and agricultural workers. These estimates are included in the study to provide some historical perspective on the projected change in the industrial composition of the total work force. The detailed industry employment projections and estimates for selected years are summarized by major sectors in tables VI-1 to 4. Full 46/ Force account construction is work done by government and busi ness firms using their own employees; that is, not contracted out. 110 I ll detail is provided in tables VI-5 to 7.47/ In another set of tables, the projections have been adjusted to exclude the self-employed and unpaid family workers in nonagricultural industries in order to provide estimates which are directly comparable with those regularly published by BLS. These are shown, along with data for earlier years, in appendix tables A-4 and A-5. The Changing Composition of Employment To return to the questions raised at the very beginning of the study: 1. How might the industrial distribution of employment in 1970 differ from the distribution in 1965? 2. Do the projected patterns of employment reflect a continuation of past trends or modifications of these trends? 3. More specifically, what are the implications for the continuation of the long-term shift from goods producing to services industries? 4. To what extent are the results affected by different assumptions regarding continuation of the sharp in creases in recent years for consumer and investment durable goods? The observations which follow will try to provide some answers, based on the employment projections for major sectors of the economy. Additional detail is provided for some of the larger industries and industry groups. 47/ The total civilian employment shown in these tables differs from that included in table II-l because of differences in the treatment of government employment. Government employment in table II-l is based on national income measures of civilian government employment. This is done in order to assure consistency with the national income measure of govern ment output, used in deriving total GNP. As part of the conversion of the employment projections from the input-output classification system to that used in the BLS establishment series, the government employment estimates have been adjusted to conform to a level consistent with BLS estimates. Government employment shown in the tables includes the Armed Forces. Government employment in the summary tables includes employees of government enterprises as well as general government workers. In the detailed industry tables, employment in government enterprises is shown separately. 112 Employment changes since 1957. In order to put the projections into some historical perspective, it may be useful to review some of the major changes in the composition of employment since 1957 when the unemployment rate was relatively low— 4.3 percent of the civilian labor force. The years that followed, however, saw a sharp slackening in the rate of eco nomic growth and a rise in the rate of unemployment. Between 1957 and 1960, the growth rate was only 2.5 percent a year compared with almost 4 percent during the previous decade. Unemployment increased and by 1960 was at 5.6 percent. In the recession of 1961, it jumped to 6.7 percent. In the recovery years of 1962 and 1963, employment increased rapidly but not enough to reduce the unemployment rate below 5.6 percent. Over the 6-year period, 1957-63, total employment (as measured in tables VI-1 to 7) increased by only 0.7 percent a year compared with an average annual rate of increase of 1.2 percent over the 1947-57 decade. In addition, much of the increase from 1957 to 1963 was concentrated in two sectors: State and local government and personal, business, and pro fessional services. Trade, domestic service, Federal Government, and finance, insurance, and real estate also showed above average increases. In contrast, employment in the other sectors either declined sub stantially or showed little or no increase in employment opportunities. The agricultural work force declined by over 1.2 million during the 6-year period> almost 4 percent a year. Employment in mining, transpor tation, and communications and public utilities all showed substantial reductions. The largest sector, manufacturing, still had not regained the 1957 level of employment by 1963. Most of the reduction was in the durable goods industries. Contract construction employment was only slightly higher in 1963 than in 1957. It was during this period that concern began to develop regarding the impact of technological change on the structure of employment oppor tunities. It was felt that acceleration of technological change had so altered the industrial and occupational requirements for manpower that there existed the very real prospect that expansion of the economy would not provide jobs for those "structurally" unemployed, particularly "bluecollar" workers with limited skills. Economic developments since then have served to put into perspective the problems of the structurally unemployed, including those groups requir ing special training and assistance to meet the changing manpower require ments of an expanding economy. Between 1963 and 1965, due in part to the cut in personal and corpo rate taxes under the Revenue Act of 1964, real growth in the economy exceeded 5 percent a year. Expansion in aggregate demand, supported by active manpower training and education programs, resulted in an increase in employment of almost 3.5 million in 2 years, or 2.4 percent per year- 113 more than twice the long-term rate. Most of the increase in employment occurred in 1965, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.6 percent for the year as a whole and to below 4 percent by the year's end. State and local government, trade, and personal, business, educa tional, and medical services continued as major sources of increased employment. In the goods producing area, employment in agriculture con tinued its long-term decline, but mining stabilized at about the 1963 level. However, employment in construction and manufacturing, partic ularly in durable manufacturing, increased dramatically, reversing the previous trend. With both consumer and investment expenditures for dura ble goods increasing at twice the rate of real output for the economy, manufacturing employment expanded sufficiently to reach an alltime high and exceed the previous peak levels of World War II and the Korean con flict. Most of the gain was in durable manufacturing. This, along with the growth in construction, provided expanded employment opportunities for "blue-collar" workers, including those with limited skills. The general acceleration in employment also provided the basis for some im provements in the job situation for youths and nonwhites--groups that had been particularly affected by the sluggish growth in the past. Employment increased sharply, particularly in manufacturing, during the latter part of 1965 and continuing into 1966. This was due to the expansion in demand resulting from Viet Nam defense expenditures, the continuing investment boom for plant and equipment, and strong consumer demand for durables. However, the growth in demand for consumer durables and capital goods could not continue indefinitely at the unusually high rates experi enced during the past few years. In addition, the Viet Nam conflict is projected to be resolved over the next few years, permitting a cutback in military expenditures. What are the implications for the industrial distribution of employ ment of a return to more sustainable patterns of final demand and lower levels of defense expenditures? Within the general framework of the study, the employment projections provide some answers to this and related ques tions raised at the beginning of the chapter. The analysis which follows is based, in part, on computations of average annual rates of change in employment between 1965 and 1970. The conversion of the employment pro jections into average annual rates carries no implication regarding the timing of these changes. In fact, for some industries affected by the current expansion in expenditures for defense and for consumer and pro ducer durable goods, employment may increase more during the early part of the 5-year period and less, or even be reduced, during the latter part of the decade. lib Employment Projections--1970 As indicated in chapter II, total employment requirements over the next 5 years are projected to increase on the average about 1.9 percent a year under the 4-percent unemployment assumption and about 2.2 percent under the 3-percent unemployment assumption. Both the 1.9- and 2.2-per cent rates of employment increase are substantially higher than that for most of the postwar period. The higher rates of increase are attributable primarily to the accelerated growth in the labor force. Adding to the in crease in employment is the assumed reduction in the unemployment rate, from the 4.6 percent average in 1965 to 4 or 3 percent by 1970. The pro jected increases amount to 1.5-1.7 million jobs a year. Achievement of such increases represents a major challenge, but these increases were actually exceeded in the employment gains recorded in 1965. Within the overall employment increases projected to 1970, the pro jections for individual industries show highly divergent trends for any one model, as well as variations among the alternative models. The al ternative models refer to the basic 4-percent unemployment model, but the differences between the basic 4-percent model and either of the alterna tives generally can be applied to the basic 3-percent unemployment model. The largest annual rate of employment increase, about 5 percent, is projected for State and local government. Growth in this sector is attrib utable to the continued expansion in schools, medical care, and other public services for a growing population. Federal grants would provide additional stimulus. In contrast, Federal Government civilian employment is projected to increase only moderately from the 1965 level. By 1970, State and local government employment would amount to about 10 million workers. This is about 12 percent of the total work force, compared with somewhat more than 10 percent in 1965. The ratio of State and local government to Federal Government employment would increase from about 3 to 1 to almost 4 to 1. Total government employment would account for about 15 percent of total employment compared with 13.5 percent in 1965. The projection of employment in personal, business, private educa tional, and medical services in the basic models shows the next largest increase--almost 4 percent a year. This reflects the continued shift in demand for such services and the lower than average increases in produc tivity (as commonly measured) in the individual industries providing these services. The rate of increase for these services would be lower in the high durable alternative, but it is still substantially higher than the over all average increase. By 1970, this major group of services would increase to 15.7-16.9 percent of total employment, compared with about 15 percent in 1965. For all except the high durables alternative, this represents an acceleration in the past rate of growth in employment. 115 Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate in the basic models is projected to increase at a faster rate than the average. It would ac count for 4.7 percent of the total by 1970— somewhat larger than that in 1965. Under the high durable alternative, its share would remain about the same as in 1965. Communications and public utilities are characterized by rapid in creases in productivity. Thus, although services provided by these indus tries are expected to increase sharply, employment would remain at about the 1965 levels and decline as a proportion of total employment— from about 2 percent in 1965 to 1.8 percent in 1970. Employment in the trade sector is dependent to a considerable extent on activity in the goods producing areas. The projections of employment in trade vary, depending on the relative importance of goods production in the various models. Productivity gains in trade are lower than the average for the total private economy. As a consequence, the employment increases (1.6-2.1 percent a year) are above the rate for the private economy and about the average for total employment in the basic model; somewhat higher in the high durables alternative and lower in the high services model. As a result, trade is projected to remain about the same proportion of total employment, 20 percent, as in 1965. Trade accounts for such a large number of workers, over 15.1 million in 1965 compared with 18.4 in manufacturing, that the employment increase is one of the largest among the various sectors— an additional 1.3-1.7 million by 1970. Total transportation employment has been declining during much of the postwar period, primarily due to the reduction in railroad employment. Employment has increased within the past few years, largely in trucking and air transportation. Although productivity gains in transportation are above average, projected demand is sufficient to provide the basis for continued further small gains in employment. The increase would not be enough to arrest the continuing decline in the sector's share of total employment— from 4.3 percent in 1957, to 3.7 percent in 1965, to 3.4 percent in 1970. Because transportation involves both personal transpor tation and transportation of goods, changes in this sector are not affect ed as much as those in trade, which is primarily dependent on distribution of goods. Thus, the projections of transportation employment are approxi mately the same for all models. Within the goods producing sectors, agricultural employment is pro jected to continue its long-term decline, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the total work force. The decline is due primarily to very high rates of increase in agricultural productivity (about 5.5 percent a year), with only moderate increases in the demand for farm products. In line with the long-term shift in the composition of the agricultural work force, most of the decline is projected to be among the self-employed and family workers; the number of wage and salary employees would remain relatively stable. 116 By 1970, the agricultural work force would account for only 5 percent of total employment, compared with about 9 percent in 1957 and 6 percent in 1965. This is one of the lowest ratios of any nation in the world, and it reflects the major technological revolution that has taken place and is projected to continue in this sector of the economy. Part of the reduc tion in farm employment is accompanied, of course, by increases elsewhere in the economy--in the industries producing farm machinery and tractors, fertilizer, feed, petroleum products, trucks and autos, etc. Nevertheless the shift from farm to nonfarm jobs presents major problems of transition, which may be made more difficult by developments in the manufacturing sector, to be discussed shortly. Mining employment, until recently, had been decreasing for many years This is attributable in large part to substantially better than average gains in productivity and relative declines in the demand for coal--one of the larger mining industries. Employment in mining is projected to contin ue to decline, although at a reduced pace. By 1970, total mining employ ment is projected to decline to about three-quarters of 1 percent of total employment, compared with somewhat less than 1 percent in 1965. The reduc tions would occur chiefly in coal mining and crude petroleum production. Contract construction employment is projected to show the largest percentage increase of any major goods producing industry. This is due to projected increases in construction activity to meet rising State and local government needs, increased housing requirements, and expanding business investment in plant. However, as noted in chapter IV on final demand, the major impetus arises from the expansion in construction ex penditures by State and local government, with more moderate increases accounted for by the other two categories. In addition, productivity gains in construction (as conventionally measured) are lower than the average for the economy. The combined effect of these two factors is a continuation of the very substantial rates of increase in construction employment by 1970. Construction's share of total employment would be increased from 5.4 percent of the total in 1965 to about 5.6 percent or more by 1970. The increase is reduced in the high services model and is a little higher than the average for the economy as a whole. What are the prospects for increased employment in manufacturing industries? Here the projections differ considerably, depending on the variations among the alternatives. This is particularly true in the durable goods industries. Nondurable industries, in the aggregate, are projected to increase by about 0.7-1.0 percent a year, considerably be low the average for the economy as a whole or for the total private economy. This is, however, a significant improvement over the small gains experienced during most of the postwar period, but there is some decline from the recent very high rates of increase. The modest increase in employment in nondurable goods represents largely offsetting changes within the group as a whole. Employment in 117 food processing, tobacco, textiles, and petroleum is projected to decline. Employment is projected to increase in apparel, paper and paper products, paperboard and boxes, printing and publishing, chemicals, plastics and synthetics, drugs and toilet preparations, and rubber and miscellaneous products. The explanation for the divergent projections of employment among the industries varies from industry to industry. The decline in employ ment projected for food processing, the largest single industry in the group, reflects moderate increases in demand with better than average increases in productivity. Demand for plastics and synthetic materials is projected to increase very rapidly, but this is largely offset by better than average increases in productivity. Average increases in the demand for petroleum products are more than offset by higher than average increases in productivity, resulting in a decline in employment requirements. As would be expected, the estimates of employment in the durable goods area are much more affected by the various alternatives than the nondurable goods projections. In the basic models, the projected rates of employment increase for durable goods industries are approximately the same as those for nondurable manufacturing. Both are considerably below the average for the economy as a whole or for the private sector. Here, too, the overall increase in employment reflects substantial increases for a number of industries, offset in part by reductions or very little change for a number of basic industries. Included among the latter are ordnance, lumber, steel, communications equipment (defense part), motor vehicles, and aircraft (defense part). Increases are fairly general for all the machinery industries (particularly computers), fabri cated metal products, furniture and fixtures, stone, clay and glass prod ucts, nonferrous metals, the nondefense part of communications equipment (e.g., color television), electrical transmission and distribution equip ment, household appliances, electronic components, civilian aircraft, railroad and other transportation equipment, instruments, and optical and photographic equipment. In the aggregate, the basic 4-percent unemployment model indicates modest increase in employment for durable goods industries of about 0.7 percent a year between 1965 and 1970. However, the high durable alter native, with its assumption of higher than average increases in demand for consumer and producer durables, indicates a rate of increase twice as high--1.5 percent a year. This is lower than the very unusual in creases from 1963-65. It is about the same as the projected rate of increase in employment for the total private economy. 118 The high service model, on the other hand, would lower the potential increase in durable goods manufacturing employment to only 0.4 percent a year. In absolute numbers, the difference in 1970 between the high durable and high service models is substantial; the former indicating an increase of 826,000 from 1965 to 1970, the latter an increase of only 194,000. The differences affect almost all the durable manufacturing in dustries, except those which are heavily dependent on defense expenditures. For manufacturing as a whole, covering both nondurable and durable goods industries, the range of projections of manufacturing employment in the alternative models indicate that there is some prospect for in creased growth in factory jobs of about 0 , 5 percent a year between 1965 and 1970, even under the lowest estimate. The high durable set of pro jections implies an increase of about 1.2 percent a year. (The 3-percent unemployment model, roughly adjusted to reflect a high durable goods alternative, would show an even higher rate of increase--about 1.5 percent a year.) The projected increase in manufacturing employment represents a reversal of the 1957-63 experience when manufacturing employment showed no increase over the period. It should be noted, however, that the pro jected rate of increase in employment in manufacturing, even at the upper end of the range of estimates, would still be substantially lower than that for the economy as a whole. The projections also represent a slow down from the more recent gains in manufacturing employment in 1965 and early 1966. The basic models imply even smaller increases in manufac turing employment between 1965 and 1970. Under all the alternatives, manufacturing would continue to decline as a proportion of total employ ment from 25.9 percent of the total in 1957, to 24.8 percent in 1965, and to 23.1-23.9 percent by 1970. A major qualification needs to be made regarding these projections. Expansion of defense expenditures, if the Viet Nam buildup continues, will involve increased employment in defense oriented manufacturing in dustries and their supplying industries. The projections developed by BLS assume that by 1970, the Viet Nam conflict will have been resolved and defense expenditures would be reduced to a more normal level. Dur ing the period of the buildup, manufacturing employment may exceed the projected employment in a number of industries. The military buildup since the early part of 1965, coupled with a continuation of the capital goods boom and consumer demand for durables, has resulted in greater than average increases in manufacturing employ ment, particularly in the durable goods industries. By mid-1966, manu facturing employment had almost reached the levels projected for 1970 under the high durable goods alternative. 119 A resolution of the Viet Nam situation and a return to more sustain able rates of increase in the demand for durable goods would imply sub stantial reductions in employment in some industries, particularly defense oriented industries--ordnance, aircraft, communication equipment and elec tronic components, shipbuilding, etc. This still leaves room for growth in employment for a number of industries under the high durables alternative--furniture, paper, printing and publishing, chemicals, computers, and selected metal fabricating and machinery industries. However, the projec tions indicate little increase or even reductions from mid-1966 levels for two of the basic industries--automobiles and steel. The structure of employment which emerges from these projections is a continuation of the long-term shift towards the service industries. The shift is at a somewhat reduced rate, however, compared with the period 1957-63 when manufacturing employment showed no growth for a period of 6 years. Goods producing industries declined from about 42 percent of total employment in 1957 to 37 percent in 1965. The projections indicate a further decline by 1970 for all the alternative models. By 1970, the * share would be down to 34 or 35 percent of the total. Goods related industries, i.e., trade and transportation, have been about 24 percent of total employment and are projected to remain at about the same proportion. Service industries, including utilities and government, increased from 34 percent of the total in 1957 to 39 percent in 1965. They are projected to increase to 41 or 42 percent of the total by 1970. The differential impact on employment of changes in final demand, input-output coefficients and productivity, varies from industry to in dustry; the shift towards services seems to be largely due to the lower rate of productivity gains among the major service sectors relative to goods producing industries, and partly to changes in the structure of final demand. Even in the high durables alternative, service industries are projected to increase their share of total employment. The shift to services is also reinforced by the direction of the interindustry coefficient changes. The effect of coefficient changes on several service industries (e.g., electric, gas, water, communications, business services, and auto repair) is to increase employment. The changes are largely offsetting among the goods producing industries. However, the effect of coefficient changes on the major goods related industry, trade, is to reduce employment. The full implications of these results for manpower policy, train ing programs, and occupational outlook will be explored as part of the further review of the projections and evaluation of the results. This will involve conversion of the employment projections into occupational requirements. 120 Table VI-1. Civilian Employment,— by Major Industry Group, Selected Years and Projected 1970 (In thousands) Selected years Major industry group 1957 1963 Projected 1970 3 percent unemploy ment 1965 Basic model Total— ^........................................................ Agriculture................ ................................. Mining....................................................... Construction................................................. Manufacturing................................................ Durable.................................................... Nondurable........................................... . Transportation....................... ............. ......... Communications and public utilities........................ Trade................................... ........... ......... Finance, insurance, and real estate..... .......... ....... Services and miscellaneous.................................. Government................................................. Federal..................................... ............... State and local........................................... Private households.......................................... 68,006 4 percent unemployment Basic model High durables High services 70,727 74,190 82,823 81,613 81,613 81,613 4,946 671 3,728 17,396 9,856 7,540 2,654 1,451 14,296 3,201 10,503 9,225 2,358 4,080 624 4,620 19,282 11,134 8,148 2,799 1,523 16,718 3,896 13,598 12,683 2,524 10,159 3,000 4,080 618 4,576 19,075 2,656 4,585 662 3,987 18,383 10,626 7,757 2,721 1,519 15,114 3,371 11,198 10,046 2,379 7,667 2,604 4,080 622 4,701 19,519 11,452 8,067 2,781 1,478 16,779 3,665 12,802 12,236 2,497 9,739 2,950 4,080 616 4,423 18,856 10,820 8,036 2,760 1,514 16,374 3,846 13,783 12,411 2,508 9,903 2,950 68,006 70,727 74,190 9,225 61,502 26,741 16,950 17,811 10,046 64,144 27,617 17,835 18,692 82,823 12,683 70,140 28,606 19,517 22,017 81,613 7,616 60,391 28,362 16,354 15,675 81.613 12,236 69,377 28,922 19,560 20,895 81.613 12,411 69,202 27,975 19,134 22,093 6,222 863 3,691 17,586 10,099 7,487 2,888 1,555 13,466 2,803 8,873 7,616 2,217 5,399 2,444 6,868 11,022 8,053 2,770 1,504 16,535 3,838 13,405 12,262 2,510 9,752 2,950 Addendum: Government................................................... Private...................................................... Goods producing industries............................... Goods related industries 3 / .............................. Service industries................. ...................... 12,262 69,351 28,349 19,305 21,697 Percent distribution Agriculture.................................................. Mining....................................................... Construction................................................. Manu fac tur ing................................................ Durable......... ................................ ....... . Nondurable................. ........... ................. Transportation............................................... Communications and public utilities........................ Trade........................................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate................ ....... Services and miscellaneous................................ Government........................ ....... ................... Federal..... ...... ..................... .................. State and local........................................... Private households.......................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 9.15 1.27 5.43 25.86 14.85 6.99 .95 5.27 24.60 13.94 11.01 10.66 4.25 2.29 19.80 4.12 13.05 4.93 .75 5.58 23.28 13.44 9.84 3.38 1.84 20.19 4.70 16.42 15.31 3.05 12.27 3.62 5.00 .76 5.61 23.37 13.51 9.87 3.39 1.84 20.26 4.70 16.43 15.02 3.08 11.95 3.61 5.00 .76 5.76 23.92 14.03 9.88 3.41 1.81 20.56 4.49 15.69 14.99 3.06 11.93 3.61 5.00 .75 5.42 23.10 13.26 9.85 3.38 20.21 6.18 .89 5.37 24.78 14.32 10.46 3.67 2.05 20.37 4.54 15.09 13.54 3.21 10.33 3.51 11.20 3.26 7.94 3.59 3.75 2.05 4.53 14.85 13.04 3.33 9.71 3.76 1.86 20.06 4.71 16.89 15.21 3.08 12.13 3.61 Addendum: Government............................................. ...... Private.................................................. . Goods producing industries............................... Goods related industries 3 / .............................. Service industries........................................ 1/ Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. 2 See footnote 3, table II-l. 3/ Trade and transportation; part of the latter is for transportation of persons. J 100.0 11.20 88.80 41.71 24.05 23.05 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 13.04 86.96 37.81 23.97 25.18 13.54 86.46 37.22 24.04 25.19 15.31 84.69 34.54 23.56 26.58 15.02 84.98 34.74 23.65 26.59 14.99 85.01 35.44 23.97 25.60 15.21 84.79 34.28 23.44 27.07 NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual items may not equal 100. 121 Table VI-2. Change in Civilian Employment,^ by Major Industry Group, Selected Periods and Projected 1965-70 Projected 1965-70 Selected periods Major industry group 1957-65 1957-63 1963-65 3 percent unemploy ment Basic model 4 percent unemployment Basic model High durables High services Aggregate change Total.......................................... Agriculture................................. Mining............. ......................... Construction................................ Manu fac turing............................... Durable.................................... Nondurable................................ Transportation.............................. Communications and public utilities........ Trade........................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate....... Services and miscellaneous................. Government.................................. Federal.................................... State and local........................... Private households........ ................. 6.184 2.721 3.463 8.633 7,423 7,423 7.423 -1,637 -1,276 -192 37 -190 -243 53 -234 -104 830 398 1,630 1,609 141 1,469 -361 -9 259 987 770 217 67 799 -52 -505 -38 633 899 508 391 78 4 1,604 525 2,400 2,637 145 2,492 396 -505 -44 589 692 396 296 49 -15 1,421 467 2,207 2,216 131 2,085 346 -505 -40 714 1,136 826 310 60 -41 1,665 294 1,604 2,190 118 2,072 346 -505 -46 436 473 194 279 39 -5 1,260 475 2,585 2,365 129 2,236 346 3,463 ----2,642 876 885 881 8.633 2,637 5,996 989 1,682 3,325 7.423 2,216 5,207 732 1,470 3,005 7.423 2,190 5,233 1,305 1,725 2,203 7.423 2,365 5,058 358 1,299 3,401 -201 296 797 527 270 -167 -36 1,648 568 2,325 2,430 162 2,268 160 68 818 170 695 821 21 212 Addendum: Total............... .......................... Government.................................. Private....................... .............. Goods producing industries............... Goods related industries 2 / .............. Service industries........................ 6.184 2,430 3,753 -745 1,481 3,017 2.721 1,609 1,111 -1,621 596 2,136 3/ Average annual rate of change— Total........................ .................. Agriculture................................. Mining....................................... Construction............................... . Manufacturing............. .................. Durable.................................... Nondurable................................ Transportation.... ......................... Communications and public utilities........ Trade................ ....................... Finance, insurance, and real estate....... Services and miscellaneous................. Government................................... Federal................. .................. State and local.... ...................... Private households.......................... 1.1 -3.8 -3.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.8 -0.3 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.5 0.9 4.5 0.8 0.7 2.4 -3.8 -4.1 -3.8 -0.6 3.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 -1.4 -1.2 1.0 2.2 2.9 3.2 1.0 4.1 1.4 2.8 3.9 1.4 1.2 2.8 2.6 2.3 3.3 4.4 0.5 5.6 -1.0 2.2 -2.3 -1.2 3.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 -2.3 -1.4 -2.3 -1.2 3.3 -2.3 -1.4 2.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 -0.2 1.8 2.6 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 -0.6 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 -0.1 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.7 4.0 2.7 4.2 4.3 2.9 4.0 4.8 3.7 4.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 5.8 2.9 4.9 2.5 4.9 2.5 5.3 2.5 1.9 4.3 1.5 0.3 1.4 3.4 1.2 Addendum: Total.......................................... Government................................... Private...................................... Goods producing industries............... Goods related industries 2 / .............. Service industries........................ J 1.1 3.5 0.8 -0.3 1.1 2.2 1 Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. 2/ Trade and transportation; part of the latter is for transportation of persons. 3/ Compound interest rates based on terminal years. 239-877 0 -66— 9 0.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 3.2 0.3 -1.0 4.4 4.8 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.5 3.3 3.0 0.9 1.9 2.3 0.6 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. 122 Table VI-3. Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970 (In thousands) Selected years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 3 per cent unem ploy ment 1965 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model Total— ^ ...................... ................................ 66.336 70.127 70.727 72.194 74,190 82.823 81,613 81.613 81,613 5,844 5,190 4,946 4,761 4,585 4,080 4,080 4,080 4,080 1,2 Agriculture......................................... 3 Forestry and fishery products...................... 4 Agricultural.forestry,and fishery services........ 110 211 109 110 114 115 119 118 119 116 212 219 224 228 242 241 241 241 29 3 Iron and ferroalloy ores m i ning................... 38 28 28 28 30 30 30 31 6 Nonferrous metal ores mining....................... 57 56 54 53 55 52 52 53 51 7 Coal mining......................................... 224 161 157 156 150 133 131 131 131 8 Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..... ............. 350 319 310 309 302 262 260 260 261 9,10 Nonmetallic mining and quarrying.................. 120 123 122 122 125 147 145 147 144 3,987 4,620 4,576 4,701 4,423 11,12 Construction........................................ 3,521 3,689 3,728 3,831 13 Ordnance and accessories........................... 145 269 266 247 236 235 235 236 234 14 Food and kindred products.......................... 1,816 1,803 1,793 1,783 1,778 1,735 1,725 1,705 1,714 IS Tobacco manufactures............................... 16 Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills.... 17 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings... 105 105 105 107 18 Apparel.............................................. 1,284 1,363 1,372 1,389 19 95 90 89 89 84 81 80 79 80 609 579 569 571 579 565 558 561 558 111 1,445 101 1,540 99 104 99 1,520 1,572 1,520 Miscellaneous fabricated textile products......... 127 147 151 155 162 179 176 178 177 20,21 Lumber and wood products........................... 711 685 683 693 699 668 661 676 646 22 Household furniture................................ 273 290 294 308 326 375 371 400 369 23 Other furniture and fixtures....................... 107 118 118 122 127 159 157 166 152 24 Paper and allied products,except containers....... 400 429 430 432 436 497 491 494 490 25 Paperboard containers and boxes................... 165 187 26 Printing and publishing............................ 948 1,004 190 1,010 194 202 229 226 229 226 1,024 1,053 1,228 1,213 1,217 1,215 27 Chemicals and selected chemical products.......... 403 417 411 411 422 428 424 427 422 28 Plastics and synthetic materials.................. 143 165 175 183 199 224 221 226 219 29 Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations............ 190 208 221 223 221 239 235 233 238 30 Paints and allied products................. ....... 61 63 63 64 65 65 64 65 59 31 Petroleum refining and related industries......... 224 195 189 183 178 167 164 164 165 496 32 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........ 346 411 420 436 466 505 499 514 33 Leather tanning and industrial leather products... 41 36 34 35 35 33 32 33 32 34 Footwear and other leather products............... 320 329 318 316 321 332 326 326 326 35 Glass and glass products....................... 144 160 162 164 169 182 179 184 179 36 Stone and clay products............................ 434 450 456 464 468 492 488 498 477 37 Primary iron and steel manufacturing.............. 847 841 845 899 935 940 931 966 910 38 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing........... 308 327 330 334 363 389 386 399 379 39 Metal containers.................................... 70 70 72 73 73 76 75 75 75 40 Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products.... 429 416 425 446 467 521 518 533 504 41 Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts........ 253 282 287 292 317 352 349 364 343 42 Other fabricated metal products................... 343 379 385 398 425 476 471 487 464 43 Engines and turbines............................... 90 84 85 87 90 90 89 93 44 Farm machinery and equipment....................... 116 115 123 129 138 149 147 154 141 45 Construction,mining,and oil field machinery....... 145 149 152 163 172 203 201 209 194 46 Materials handling machinery and equipment........ 61 62 72 77 80 83 78 66 79 88 123 Table VI-3. Civilian Employment,—^ by ISP Industry--Continued Selected Years and Projected 1970 (In thousands) Selected years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 1965 3 per cent unem ploy ment 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices 339 Basic model 47 Metalworking machinery and equipment.............. 246 274 283 296 314 352 349 363 48 Special industry machinery and equipment.......... 164 174 175 184 193 220 217 228 209 49 General industrial machinery and equipment........ 210 235 240 249 264 283 280 292 271 50 Machine-shop products.............................. 156 189 191 193 205 233 231 238 230 51 Office,computing,and accounting machines.......... 133 159 163 175 197 238 234 263 230 52 Service industry machines.......................... 90 101 102 106 111 110 109 115 105 53 Electric industrial equipment and apparatus...... 304 350 339 341 366 395 392 410 378 Household appliances............................... 148 150 156 161 167 182 179 192 179 Electric lighting and wiring equipment............ 124 147 153 159 170 194 191 198 188 56 Radio,television,and communication equipment..... 400 555 549 532 568 530 523 548 516 57 Electronic components and accessories............. 179 266 262 265 304 325 322 333 318 58 Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.. 97 103 99 94 101 113 112 117 112 59 Motor vehicles and equipment..... .......... . 604 693 742 757 852 789 778 826 763 60 Aircraft and parts................................. 785 635 640 605 618 551 551 547 546 61 Other transportation equipment.................... 218 219 231 248 274 324 320 336 311 275 62 Scientific and controlling instruments............ 223 249 253 254 262 281 278 m 0 0 CM 54 55 63 Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment.... 103 112 115 119 127 140 138 142 138 64 Miscellaneous manufacturing.................... . 395 418 414 424 451 487 481 496 479 65 Transportation and warehousing.................... 2,703 2,661 2,654 2,672 2,721 2,799 2,770 2,781 2,760 66 Communications;except broadcasting................ 775 732 727 747 775 742 732 718 735 67 Radio and television broadcasting................. 89 97 101 105 110 123 121 121 121 68 Electric,gas.water,and sanitary services.......... 622 624 623 626 634 658 651 639 658 69 Wholesale and retail trade............... ......... 13,589 14,262 14,296 14,677 15,114 16,718 16,535 16,779 16,374 70 Finance and insurance........................... 2,137 2,410 2,471 2,544 2,608 3,031 2,994 2,864 2,999 71 Real estate and rental............................. 676 707 730 748 763 865 844 801 847 72 Hotels{personal and repair services.except auto... 2,503 2,683 2,714 2,804 3,161 3,102 2,953 3,111 73 74 Business services and research and development.... 2,746 2,866 2,201 1,526 2,008 2,064 2,139 2,781 2,752 2,753 75 Automobile repair and services...... ............. 399 480 452 466 476 535 527 507 527 76 Amusements........... .................... .......... 635 689 698 733 753 889 879 830 883 77 Medical.educational and nonprofit organizations... 3,486 4,046 4,246 4,409 4,559 5,871 5,786 5,399 6,159 78 Government enterprises - Federal....... .......... 79 Government enterprises - State and local.......... 84 Government, total............................... . 86 See NOTE. See N0TE. 7,839 8,890 9,225 9,565 10,046 12,683 12,262 12,236 12,411 Federal........................................... 2,191 2,340 2,358 2,348 2,379 2,524 2,510 2,497 2,510 State and local................................... 5,648 6,550 6,868 7,248 7,667 10,159 9,752 9,739 9,901 2,550 2,694 2,656 2,683 2,604 3,000 2,950 2,950 2,950 Private households................................. 1/ Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and unpaid NOTE: ISP»interindustry sales and purchases. ISP 78 family workers. and 79 are included in ISP 84. 2/ See footnote 3, table II-l. Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. 124 Table VI-4. Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Selected Years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 1965 3 per cent unem ploy ment 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Total.. 1,2 Agriculture..... ...... ............................. 8.81 7.40 6.99 6.59 6.18 4.93 5.00 5.00 5.00 3 Forestry and fishery products...................... .17 .16 .16 .16 .16 .14 .14 .14 .14 4 Agricultural.forestry and fishery services........ .32 .30 .31 .31 .31 .29 .30 .30 .30 5 Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...... . .06 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 6 Nonferrous metal ores m ining.................. . .09 .08 .08 .07 .07 .06 .06 .06 .06 7 Coal mining................................. ........ .34 .23 .22 .22 .20 .16 .16 .16 .16 8 Crude petroleum and natural gas........... .53 .45 .44 .43 .41 .32 .32 .32 .32 9,10 Nonmetallic mining and quarrying.................. .18 .18 .17 .17 .17 .18 .18 .18 .18 11,12 Construction............................... ........ 5.31 5.26 5.27 5.31 5.37 5.58 5.61 5.76 5.42 13 Ordnance and accessories.... ...................... 14 Food and kindred products.......................... .22 .38 .38 .34 .32 .28 2.74 2.57 2.54 2.47 2.40 2.09 .29 .29 .29 Miscellaneous fabricated textile products......... .19 .21 .21 .21 .22 .10 .68 .12 1.86 .22 .22 2.10 .10 .68 .12 1.86 .22 20,21 Lumber and wood products.... ......... .......... . 22 Household furniture....................... ......... 1.07 .98 .97 .96 .94 .81 .81 .83 .79 .41 .41 .42 .43 .44 .45 .45 .49 .45 23 Other furniture and fixtures....................... .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 .19 .19 .20 .19 .60 15 Tobacco manufactures............. .................. .14 .13 .13 .12 .11 16 Broad and narrow f a b r i c s , y a m and thread mills.... .92 .83 .80 .79 .78 17 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings... 18 Apparel.... ........................................ 19 .16 .15 .15 .15 .15 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.92 1.95 2.11 .10 .68 .12 1.86 .22 2.09 .10 .69 .13 1.85 24 Paper and allied products,except containers....... .60 .61 .61 .60 .59 .60 .60 .61 25 Paperboard containers and boxes.................... .25 .27 .27 .27 .27 .28 .28 .28 .28 26 Printing and publishing............................ 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.42 1.42 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 27 Chemicals and selected chemical products......... .61 .59 .58 .57 .57 .52 .52 .52 .52 28 Plastics and synthetic materials.................. .22 .24 .25 .25 .27 .27 .27 .28 .27 29 Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations............ .29 .30 .31 .31 .30 .29 .29 .29 .29 30 Paints and allied products................ ........ .09 .09 .09 .09 .09 .08 .08 .08 .07 31 Petroleum refining and related industries......... .34 .28 .27 .25 .24 .20 .20 .20 .20 32 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........ .52 .59 .59 .60 .63 .61 .61 .63 .61 33 Leather tanning and industrial leather products... .06 .05 .05 .05 .05 .04 .04 .04 .04 34 Footwear and other leather products.......... . .48 .47 .45 .44 .43 .40 .40 .40 .40 35 Glass and glass products................. ......... .22 .23 .23 .23 .23 .22 .22 .23 .22 36 Stone and clay products................ .......... 37 Primary iron and steel manufacturing.... . .65 1.28 .64 1.20 .64 .64 .63 .59 .60 .61 1.19 1.25 1.26 1.13 1.14 1.18 .58 1.12 38 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing........... .46 .47 .47 .46 .49 .47 .47 .49 .46 39 Metal containers..... .............................. .11 .10 .10 .10 .10 .09 .09 .09 .09 40 Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products.... .65 .59 .60 .62 .63 .63 .63 .65 .62 41 Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts........ .38 .40 .41 .40 .43 .43 .43 .45 .42 42 Other fabricated metal products................... .52 .54 .54 .55 .57 .57 .58 .60 .57 43 Engines and turbines............................... .14 .12 .12 .12 .12 .11 .11 .11 .11 44 Farm machinery and equipment....................... .17 .16 .17 .18 .19 .18 .18 .19 .17 45 Construction,mining,and oil field machinery....... .22 .21 .21 .23 .23 .25 .25 .26 .24 See footnotes at end of table. 125 Table VI-4. Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry— Continued Selected Years and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Selected years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 1965 3 percent unemploymen t 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model 46 Materials handling machinery and equipment........ .09 .09 .09 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 47 Metalworking machinery and equipment............... .37 .39 .40 .41 .42 .43 .43 .44 .42 48 Special industry machinery and equipment.......... .25 .25 .25 .25 .26 .27 .27 .28 .26 49 General industrial machinery and equipment........ .32 .34 .34 .34 .36 .34 .34 .36 .33 50 Machine-shop products.............................. .24 .27 .27 .27 .28 .28 .28 .29 .28 .28 51 Office,computing,and accounting machines.......... .20 .23 .23 .24 .27 .29 .29 .32 52 Service industry machines................... ...... .14 .14 .14 .15 .15 .13 .13 .14 .13 53 Electric industrial equipment and apparatus...... .46 .50 .48 .47 .49 .48 .48 .50 .46 54 Household appliances............................... .22 .22 .22 .22 .24 .22 .19 .22 .22 .22 Electric lighting and wiring equipment............ .21 .21 .23 55 .23 .23 .23 .24 .23 56 Radio,television,and communication equipment..... .60 .79 .78 .74 .77 .64 .64 .67 .63 57 Electronic components and accessories............. .27 .38 .37 .37 .41 .39 .39 .41 .39 58 Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.. .15 .15 .14 .13 .14 .14 .14 .14 .14 59 Motor vehicles and equipment............ .......... .91 .99 1.05 1.05 1.15 .95 .95 1.01 .93 60 Aircraft and parts................................. 1.18 .91 .90 .84 .83 .67 .68 .67 .67 61 Other transportation equipment.................... .33 .31 .33 .34 .37 .39 .39 .41 .38 62 Scientific and controlling instruments............ .34 .36 .36 .35 .35 .34 .34 .35 .34 .17 63 Optical,ophthalmic,and photographic equipment.... .16 .16 .16 .16 .17 .17 .17 .17 64 Miscellaneous manufacturing........................ .60 .60 .59 .59 .61 .59 .59 .61 .59 65 Transportation and warehousing..................... 4.07 3.79 3.75 3.70 3.67 3.38 3.39 3.41 3.38 66 Communications;except broadcasting................ 1.17 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.04 .90 .90 .88 .90 67 Radio and television broadcasting................. .13 .14 .14 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 .15 68 Electric,gas,water,and sanitary services.......... .94 .89 69 Wholesale and retail trade......................... 20.49 20.34 .88 20.21 .87 .85 .79 .80 .78 .81 20.33 20.37 20.19 20.26 20.56 20.06 70 Finance and insurance........... ................... 3.22 3.44 3.49 3.52 3.52 3.66 3.67 3.51 3.67 71 Real estate and rental............. . 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.03 .98 1.04 72 Hotels;personal and repair services.except auto... 3.77 3.83 3.84 3.88 3.86 3.82 3.80 3.62 3.81 73 74 Business services and research and development.... 2.30 2.92 2.96 2.97 3.36 3.37 3.37 3.36 75 Automobile repair and services..................... .60 2.86 .68 .64 .65 .64 .65 .65 .62 76 Amusements.................. ................... . .96 .98 1.01 1.07 1.08 1.02 1.08 5.26 5.77 1.02 6.11 6.15 7.09 7.09 6.62 7.55 15.21 77 Medical,educational and nonprofit organizations... 78 Government enterprises, Federal................... 79 Government enterprises, State and local........... 84 Government, total..... ............................. 86 .99 6.00 See NOTE. See NOTE. 12.68 13.04 13.25 13.54 15.31 15.02 14.99 Federal........................................... 3.30 3.34 3.33 3.25 3.21 3.05 3.08 3.06 3.08 State and local................................... 8.51 9.34 9.71 10.03 10.33 12.27 11.95 11.93 12.13 3.84 3.84 3.76 3.72 3.51 3.62 3.61 3.61 3.61 Private households................................. 11.82 J 1 Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and unpaid are included in ISP 84. family workers. Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not NOTE: .65 ISP“interindustry sales and purchases. ISP 78 and 79 equal 100. 126 T a b l e V I-5. Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry, P r ojected 1965-70 2/ (Average annual rate of change)— Projected 1965-70 Industry number and title 3 percent unemploy ment 4 percent unemployment Basic model High durables High services Basic model 1,2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9,10 11,12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20,21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 Agriculture....... ................................ Forestry and fishery products..................... Agricultural,forestry and fishery services....... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................... Nonferrous metal ores mining...................... Coal mining........................................ Crude petroleum and natural gas................... Nonmetallic mining and quarrying.................. Construction................. ..................... Ordnance and accessories.......................... Food and kindred products......................... Tobacco manufactures.............................. Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills.... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings... Apparel........ ................................... Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........ Lumber and wood products.......................... Household furniture............................... Other furniture and fixtures...................... Paper and allied products,except containers...... Paperboard containers and boxes.................. . Printing and publishing........................... Chemicals and selected chemical products........ . Plastics and synthetic materials.................. Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations.......... . Paints and allied products.................. ...... Petroleum refining and related industries.... . Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products....... Leather tanning and industrial leather products... Footwear and other leather products............ . Glass and glass products.......................... Stone and clay products....... ................... Primary iron and steel manufacturing......... . Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.......... Metal containers.................................. Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products.... Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts....... Other fabricated metal products................... -2.3 0.7 1.2 — -1.1 -2.3 -2.8 3.3 3.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -1.9 1.3 2.0 -0.9 2.8 4.6 2.7 2.5 3.1 0.3 2.4 1.6 — -1.3 1.6 -1.2 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.8 2.2 2.1 2.3 Farm machinery and equipment..................... . Construction,mining,and oil field machinery...... Materials handling machinery and equipment....... 1.6 3.4 0.8 -2.3 0.5 1.1 — -1.1 -2.7 -2.9 3.0 2.8 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -2.2 1.0 1.7 -1.1 2.6 4.3 2.4 2.3 2.9 0.1 2.1 1.2 -0.3 -1.7 1.4 -1.8 0.3 1.2 0.8 -0.1 1.2 0.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 -0.2 1.3 3.2 0.5 -2.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 -0.7 -2.7 -2.9 3.3 3.3 — -0.8 -1.2 -0.6 -1.3 0.9 1.9 -0.7 4.2 5.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 0.2 2.6 1.1 — -1.7 2.0 -1.2 0.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 1.9 0.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 0.7 2.2 4.0 1.5 -2.3 0.2 1.1 -0.7 -1.5 -2.7 -2.9 2.9 2.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -2.2 1.0 1.8 -1.6 2.5 3.7 2.4 2.3 2.9 — 1.9 1.5 -2.0 -1.5 1.2 -1.8 0.3 1.2 0.4 -0.6 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.4 2.4 0.3 • •• See footnotes at end of table. 127 T a b l e V I-5. Civilian Employment,— ^ by ISP Industry, Projected 1965-70--Continued 2/ (Average annual rate of change)— Projected 1965-70 Industry number and title 3 percent unemploy ment 4 percent unemployment Basic model High durables High services Basic model 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73, 74 75 76 77 78 79 84 86 Metalworking machinery and equipment............... Special industry machinery and equipment.... ...... General industrial machinery and equipment........ Machine-shop products........................ . Office,computing,and accounting machines.......... Service industry machines.......................... Electric industrial equipment and apparatus....... Household appliances............................... Electric lighting and wiring equipment............ Radio,television,and communication equipment...... Electronic components and accessories............. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment... Motor vehicles and equipment..... ....... .......... Aircraft and parts............. ............ ....... Other transportation equipment..................... Scientific and controlling instruments............ Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment..... Miscellaneous manufacturing.......... ........... . Transportation and warehousing..................... Communications;except broadcasting............... . Radio and television broadcasting................ . Electric,gas,water,and sanitary services.......... Wholesale and retail trade....... ................. Finance and insurance.......... ................. . Real estate and rental.......................... . Hotels;personal and repair services.except auto.... Business services and research and development.... Automobile repair and services...... . Amusements.......... ............... ............ . Medical,educational and nonprofit organizations.... Government enterprises - Federal................... Government enterprises - State and local.......... Government - general............................... Private households.......... ......... .......... . 1/ Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and unpaid family workers. 2.3 2.7 1.4 2.6 3.9 -0.2 1.5 1.7 2.7 -1.4 1.3 2.3 -1.6 -2.2 3.4 1.4 2.0 1.6 0.6 -0.9 2.3 0.7 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 4.8 2.4 3.4 5.2 1.4 3.5 5.1 2.9 2.1 2.4 1.2 2.4 3.5 -0.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 -1.7 1.2 2.1 -1.8 -2.2 3.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.4 -1.1 1.9 0.5 1.8 2.8 2.0 1.6 4.6 2.1 3.1 4.9 1.2 3.2 4.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 2.0 3.0 5.9 0.7 2.3 2.8 3.1 -0.7 1.8 3.0 -0.6 -2.4 4.2 1.7 2.3 1.9 0.4 -1.6 1.9 0.2 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.6 4.6 1.3 2.0 3.4 0.9 2.7 4.3 2.5 1.6 1.6 0.5 2.3 3.2 -1.1 0.7 1.4 2.0 -1.9 0.9 2.1 -2.2 -2.4 2.6 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.3 -1.1 1.9 0.7 1.6 2.8 2.1 1.6 4.5 2.1 3.2 6.2 1.2 3.3 4.6 2.5 2J Compound interest rates based on terminal years. BIBLIOGRAPHY OF REPORTS USED IN ECONOMIC GROWTH STUDIES A. Labor Force Projections Cooper, Sophia and Johnston, Denis F., "Labor Force Projections for 1970-80" (Special Labor Force Report No. 26) Monthly Labor Review, February 1965, pp. 129-140. B. Projections of Final Demand 1. Federal Government Colm, Gerhard and Wagner, Peter, Federal Budget Projections, Studies of Government Finance, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., 1965. 2. State and Local Government Financing Public Hospitals and Health Services: 1970 Projections, Council of State Governments, Research Memorandum. Public Spending for Higher Education, 1970, Council of State Governments, Research Memorandum 374, February 1965. Transportation Outlays of States and Cities: 1970 Projections, Council of State Governments, Research Memorandum 375, May 1965 Financing Public Welfare: 1970 Projections, Council of State Governments, Research Memorandum 380, July 1965. Local School Expenditures: 1970 Projections, Council of State Governments, Research Memorandum 382, November 1965. Mushkin, Selma J., and Lupo, Gabrielle C., "Project *70: Projecting the State-Local Sector," The George Washington University, State-Local Finances Project, Washington, D.C., March 1966. 3. Residential Construction Atkinson, L. Jay, "Long-Term Influences Affecting the Volume of New Housing Units," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 43, No. 11, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 1963, pp. 8-19. 4. Plant and Equipment Investment Projections of Business Investment Levels to 1970, Jack Faucett Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland, August 1965 (unpublished). 128 129 Bibliography--Continued 5. Net Exports Parrish, Evelyn M. , "A Pattern of Balances of Payments between World Regions in 1970," Staff Working Paper in Economics and Statistics, No. 9, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, September 1964. 6. Consumption Expenditures Friedman, Charles S., "Stocks of Passenger Cars: Postwar Growth and Distribution," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 43, No. 9, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, September 1963, pp. 17-24. Houthakker, Hendrik and Taylor, Lester D., Consumer Demand in the United States, 1929-1970, Vol. 126, Harvard University Press, 1966. Simon, Nancy W . , "Personal Consumption Expenditures in the 1958 Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business. Vol. 45, No. 10, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, October 1965, pp. 7-20. C. Interindustry Relationships 1. Agriculture "Agriculture 1970: Its Markets and Selected Characteristics of Its Structure," Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, June 1963 (unpublished). 2. Bureau of Mines "Methodology Used to Estimate 1970 Inputs and Outputs of Six Interindustry Sales and Purchases (ISP) Mining and Two Refining Sectors," Bureau of Mines, U.S, Department of Interior, January 1964 (unpublished). (Industries covered were: 5, Iron and steel; 6, Nonferrous metals: mining; 7, Coal mining; 8, Petroleum and related products: mining; 9, Stone and clay and their products: mining; 10, Chemicals: mining; 31, Petroleum and related products: manufacturing; and 38, Nonferrous metals: manufacturing.) 3. Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts (unpublished) (a) Projections of 1958 Input-Output Coefficients to 1970 (b) Projections of Input Structure for the Textile Industry, (ISP 16, 17, 18, 19) 130 Bibliography--Continued (c) Projections of Input Structure for the Paper and Allied Products Industry, Except Containers (ISP 24); Paperboard (ISP 25) (d) Projections of Input Structure for the Petroleum Refining Industry (ISP 31) (e) Projections (f) Projections of Input Structure for the Iron and Steel Manufacturing Industry (ISP 37) (g) Input Structure for Metal Containers (ISP 39) (h) Projections of Input Structure for Heating, Plumbing, Fabricated Structural Metal Products (ISP 40) (i) Projections of Input Structure for Screw Machine Products and Other Fabricated Metal Products (ISP 41 and 42) (j) Projections of Input Structure for Engines and Turbines (ISP 43) (k) Projections (ISP 44) of Input Structure for Farm Machinery and Equipment (l) Projections of Input Structure for Construction and Mining Machinery and Equipment (ISP 45) (m) Projections of Input Structure for Household Appliances (ISP 54) (n) Projections of Input Structure for Motor Vehicles (ISP 59) (o) Projections (ISP 61) of Input Structure for Other Transportation Equipment (p) Input Structure for Transportation and Warehousing (ISP 65) (q) Projections (r) Projections of Input Structure for the Gas Utility Industry (Part ISP 68) (s) Coefficient Projections in the Metalworking Sectors: General Considerations of Input Structure for the Glass Industry (ISP 35) of Input Structure for Electricity (Part ISP 68) 131 Bibliography--Continued 4. Construction Frumkin, Norman, "Construction Activity in the 1958 Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 45, No* 5, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, May 1965, pp. 13-24. Projections to 1970 of Input Coefficients for Selected Construction Activities, Jack Faucett Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland, July 1964 (unpublished). 132 Table A-l. Gross National Product, by Major Components, 1950-65 (Billions of 1958 dollars) Selected years Major components 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 Gross national product............................. 355.3 383.4 395.1 412.8 407.0 438.0 446.1 452.5 Personal consumption expenditures............... 230.5 232.8 239.4 250.8 255.7 274.2 281.4 288.2 Gross private domestic investment............... 69.3 70.0 60.5 61.2 59.4 75.4 74.3 Fixed investment............................... 61.0 59.0 57.2 60.2 61.4 69.0 69.5 67.6 Nonresidential............................... 37.5 39.6 38.3 40.7 39.6 43.9 47.3 47.4 Structures................................. 12.7 14.1 13.7 14.9 15.2 16.2 18.5 18.2 29.1 20.2 1.2 6.2 Producers' durable equipment.... ......... 24.8 25.5 24.6 25.8 24.5 27.7 28.8 Residential structures....................... 23.5 19.5 18.9 19.6 21.7 25.1 22.2 68.8 Change in business inventories................ 8.3 10.9 3.3 0.9 -2.0 6.4 4.8 Net exports of goods and services............... 2.7 5.3 3.0 1.1 3.0 3.2 5.0 Exports............. ............................ 16.3 19.3 18.2 17.8 18.8 20.9 24.2 26.2 Imports......................................... 13.6 14.1 15.2 16.7 15.8 17.7 19.1 19.9 Government purchases of goods and services..... 52.8 75.4 92.1 99.8 88.9 85.2 85.3 89.3 Federal......................................... 25.3 47.4 63.8 70.0 56.8 50.7 49.7 51.7 State and local................................ 27.5 27.9 28.4 29.7 32.1 34.4 35.6 37.6 Percent distribution Gross national product.............. ............... Personal consumption expenditures............... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 64.9 60.7 60.6 60.8 62.8 62.6 63.1 63.7 16.7 15.2 Gross private domestic investment............... 19.5 18.3 15.3 14.8 14.6 17.2 Fixed investment............................... 17.2 15.4 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.8 15.6 14.9 Nonresidential............ ................... 10.6 10.3 9.7 9.9 9.7 10.0 10.6 10.5 Structures...... ............ .......... . 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.0 Producers' durable equipment.............. 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.6 5.1 4.8 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.0 4.5 1.1 1.1 0.3 Residential structures....................... Change in business inventories................ Net exports of goods and services............... Exports......... ................................ 2.3 2.8 -0.5 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.7 4.6 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.8 4.3 4.4 1.4 Imports......................................... 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 Government purchases of goods and services..... 14.8 19.7 23.3 24.2 21.8 19.5 19.1 19.7 Federal......................................... 7.1 12.4 16.2 17.0 14.0 11.6 7.7 7.2 7.2 7.9 11.1 8.0 11.4 7.3 State and local.... ............................ See footnotes at end of table 7.9 8.3 133 Table A-l. Gross National Product, by Major Components, 1950-65--Continued (Billions of 1958 dollars) Selectee years Major components 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Gross national product............................. 447.3 475.9 487.8 497.3 530.0 550.0 577.6 609.0 Personal consumption expenditures............... 290.1 307.3 316.2 322.6 338.6 352.4 372.1 394.1 Gross private domestic investment............... 60.9 73.6 72.4 69.0 79.4 82.3 86.3 96.1 Fixed investment............................... 62.4 68.8 68.9 67.0 73.4 76.6 81.7 88.9 Nonresidential............................... 41.6 44.1 47.1 45.5 49.7 51.9 57.1 65.0 19651' Structures................................. 16.6 16.2 17.4 17.4 17.9 18.0 18.9 21.2 Producers' durable equipment.............. 25.0 27.9 29.6 28.1 31.7 33.8 38.3 43.8 20.8 24.7 21.9 23.8 24.7 24.6 23.9 Residential structures....................... Change in business inventories................ Net exports of goods and services............... -1.5 2.2 4.8 3.5 21.6 2.0 6.0 5.7 4.6 7.2 0.3 4.3 5.1 4.5 5.6 8.5 6.0 Exports......................................... 23.1 23.8 27.3 28.0 30.0 32.2 36.5 37.3 Imports............... ......................... 20.9 23.5 23.0 22.9 25.5 26.5 27.9 31.3 Government purchases of goods and services..... 94.2 94.7 94.9 100.5 107.5 109.8 110.7 112.8 Federal.............. ........... ............... 53.6 52.5 51.4 54.6 60.0 59.7 57.8 57.2 State and local................................ 40.6 42.2 43.5 45.9 47.5 50.0 52.8 55.6 Percent distribution 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Personal consumption expenditures............... 64.9 64.6 64.8 64.9 63.9 64.1 64.4 64.7 Gross private domestic investment............... 13.6 15.5 14.8 13.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.8 Fixed investment............................... 14.0 14.5 14.1 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.6 Gross national product.......................... . Nonresidential............................... 9.3 9.3 9.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.9 10.7 Structures.................................. 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 Producers' durable equipment.............. 5.6 5.9 6.1 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.6 7.2 Residential structures....................... 4.7 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.9 Change in business inventories....... ........ -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.0 5.2 5.0 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.1 Net exports of goods and services........... Exports......................................... Imports...... .................................. 4.7 Federal............................. ........... 21.1 12.0 State and local................................ 9.1 Government purchases of goods and services..... J Preliminary 1 estimate. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. 4.9 4.7 19.9 19.5 11.0 10.5 20.2 11.0 4.6 8.9 8.9 9.2 4.8 4.8 5.1 20.3 20.0 19.2 18.5 11.3 10.9 10.0 9.4 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 4.8 SOURCE: Historical data on gross national product are from U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics. 131* Table A-2. Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, 1950-65 (Billions of 1958 dollars) Selected years Major type 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 Total, personal consumption expenditures.......... 230.5 232.8 239.4 250.8 255.7 274.2 281.4 288.2 Durable goods.................................... 34.7 31.5 30.8 35.3 35.4 43.2 41.0 41.5 Automobiles and parts........................ 15.9 13.3 12.3 16.0 15.7 21.2 17.9 18.8 Furniture and household equipment........... 15.1 14.3 14.4 15.0 15.3 17.1 17.9 17.4 Other......................................... 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.3 Nondurable goods................................ 114.0 116.5 124.4 125.5 131.7 136.2 138.7 Food and beverages........................... 63.2 64.5 66.3 68.4 69.4 72.4 74.8 76.2 Clothing and shoes........................... 21.8 21.6 22.7 22.9 24.6 24.4 6.5 7.2 7.8 8.5 22.8 8.8 24.0 Gasoline and o i l ............................. 10.1 10.5 Other......................................... 22.5 23.3 24.0 24.6 24.6 25.8 26.8 27.5 Services......................................... 81.8 84.8 87.8 91.1 94.8 99.3 104.1 108.0 Housing....................................... 26.8 28.8 30.7 32.3 33.9 35.7 37.4 39.2 Household operation.......................... 11.7 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 15.1 16.1 16.7 Transportation................................ 8.5 Other......................................... 34.8 8.8 34.9 120.8 9.6 8.7 8.9 8.7 8.9 9.4 9.5 35.8 36.6 38.5 39.7 41.2 42.5 Percent distribution 100.0 100.0 Durable goods.................................... 15.1 13.5 Automobiles and parts........................ 6.9 5.7 5.1 6.4 6.6 1.6 6.1 6.0 6.0 Total, personal consumption expenditures.......... Furniture and household equipment........... 100.0 12.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 14.1 13.8 15.8 14.6 14.4 7.8 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Nondurable goods................................ 49.4 50.0 50.5 49.6 49.1 48.0 48.4 48.1 Food and beverages........................... 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.3 27.2 26.3 26.6 26.4 Clothing and shoes........................... 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 Gasoline and o i l ............................. 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 Other......................................... 9.8 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 Services......................................... 35.5 36.5 36.7 36.3 37.1 36.2 37.0 37.5 12.4 12.8 Other......................................... 1.9 Housing....................................... 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.0 13.3 13.6 Household operation.......................... 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 Transportation............................... 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 Other......................................... 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.6 15.0 14.5 14.7 14.8 See footnotes at end of table 135 Table A-2. Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, 1950-65— -Continued (Billions of 1958 dollars) Selected years Major type 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Total, personal consumption expenditures.......... 290.1 307.3 316.2 322.6 338.6 352.4 372.1 Durable goods.................................... 37.9 43.7 44.9 43.9 49.2 53.2 58.5 65.4 Automobiles and parts........................ 15.4 19.0 20.0 18.4 21.8 24.1 25.6 30.1 Furniture and household equipment........... 17.1 18.8 18.7 19.2 20.5 22.0 24.9 26.5 6.2 6.8 8.0 1965^ 394.1 8.8 Other................... ..................... 5.4 5.9 Nondurable goods................................ 140.2 146.9 149.7 153.1 158.4 161.8 169.4 177.0 6.4 7.1 Food and beverages..... ..................... 76.4 79.7 80.9 82.3 84.1 85.3 88.3 91.7 Clothing and shoes........................... 24.7 26.1 26.6 26.9 28.4 29.0 31.4 32.8 Gasoline and o i l ............................. 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.7 13.9 Other......................................... Services............. ............................ 28.2 29.6 31.9 33.4 34.4 36.1 38.6 112.0 116.8 121.6 30.4 125.6 131.1 137.3 144.2 151.6 Housing...... ................................ 41.1 42.9 44.9 46.6 49.1 51.9 55.0 59.2 Household operation.......................... 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.4 20.4 21.2 22.3 23.3 Transportation............................... 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.4 10.6 Other......................................... 44.3 46.1 49.8 51.7 54.0 56.5 58.4 10.1 47.9 Percent distribution Total, personal consumption expenditures.......... Durable goods.............................. . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 13.1 14.2 14.2 15.1 15.7 16.6 6.9 7.6 13.6 14.5 6.3 5.7 6.4 6.8 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.7 6.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 6.1 2.0 6.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 48.3 47.8 Automobile and parts......................... 5.3 Furniture and household equipment........... Other......................... ................ Nondurable goods................................ Food and beverages.......................... . 26.3 Clothing and shoes.... ...................... 8.5 47.3 47.5 46.8 45.9 45.5 44.9 25.9 25.6 25.6 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.3 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.3 Gasoline and o i l ............................. 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 Other......................................... 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.8 Services............ .......... .................. 38.6 38.0 38.5 38.9 38.7 39.0 38.8 38.5 Housing................ ...................... 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 Household operation.......................... 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 Transportation............................... 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 Other......................................... 15.2 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.3 15.4 1/ Preliminary estimate. NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. 6.0 2.8 15.2 5.9 2.7 14.8 SOURCE: Historical data on personal consumption expendi tures are from U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, TABLE A-3. 1/ TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)" PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970-' 3/1958 prices) (Producer*' valu*,— Industry number and title Livestock and livestock products Other agricul tural products Forestry and fishery products Agricul tural, forestry, and fishery services Iron and ferro alloy ores mining 1 2 3 4 5 Nonfer rous metal ores mining Coal mining 6 7 Crude petro leum and natural 8** Stone and clay mining and quarrying 8 9 10 ChesdLcal and fer tilizer mineral mining 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Livestock end livestock products.................... Other agricultural products......................... Forestry and fishery products....................... Agricultural, forestry and fishery services......... Iron end ferroalloy ores mining..................... 68 ,7 2 4 26,516 67 4,604 9 6,059 79,835 39 5, 161 13 4,305 9,771 57,475 2,086 6 1 1,209 30,841 28 1 22,144 8 173 266 57 35 1 3,218 142 195 27 29 222 130 19C 60 31 30 256 408 18 44 8 138 181 22 29 44 152 179 23 27 40 6. 7. d. 9. 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining........................ Coal mining.......................................... Crude petroleum and natural gas..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining.............. 15 60 HI 75 01 25 65 163 179 79 10 34 72 35 15 14 39 77 33 875 280 86 48 22 29,064 223 92 76 49 45 42,1 2 0 78 62 13 14 43 6,381 21 8 41 201 1C9 44,726 26 46 157 103 753 21,582 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. New construction.................................... Maintenance and repair construction................. Ordnance and accessories............................ Food and kindred products........................... Tobacco manufactures............... ................. i,269 549 852 3,748 2 1,467 1 430 2 652 1 775 1 396 1 109 2 7 50 1 116 3 565 1 100 1,195 1 106 2 665 1 112 3 677 1 143 3 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills..... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... Apparel.............................................. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... Lumber and wood products, except containers......... 79 47 26 77 164 114 69 22 106 247 133 222 19 32 164 144 236 17 52 144 51 23 23 19 491 120 18 23 19 195 92 36 25 15 541 32 2C 18 13 131 70 42 26 18 165 58 23 20 19 149 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Wooden containers.................................... Household furniture................................. Other furniture and fixtures........................ Paper and allied products, except containers........ Paperboard containers and boxes..................... ■ 125 5 3 251 2 03 31.6 6 4 233 98 45 10 6 489 291 129 5 3 246 220 11 9 4 141 54 9 5 3 3 76 60 8 8 5 268 86 6 5 3 165 41 13 5 3. 516 162 9 4 3 326 93 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing............................. Chemicals and selected chemical products............ Plastics and synthetic materials.................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............ Paints and allied products.......................... 597 704 85 69 26 835 1,775 141 47 22 1 ,288 337 121 21 39 476 744 107 30 18 395 661 96 25 27 452 861 99 32 .25 287 274 136 20 26 774 225 53 16 30 488 410 171 34 21 403 910 104 31 21 1b 2 239-877 0-66— 10 Petroleum refining and related Industries.......... .. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products......... .. Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.... . Footwear and other leather products................ . Glass and glass products........................... . 1 37 2 54 3 18 129 288 377 3 27 47 123 3 81 3 12 41 134 248 2 14 42 126 356 3 9 35 115 245 2 9 29 107 662 2 36. Stone and clay products............................ .. 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing............... . 38. - Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............ . 39. Metal containers................................... . 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.... 95 229 93 131 53 152 245 121 56 62 57 168 69 31 49 7b 179 78 42 38 352 1,260 201 i5 128 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts........ . Other fabricated metal products.................... Engines and turbines............................... Farm machinery and equipment........................ . Construction, mining and oil field machinery....... 126 1 34 ’4 137 17 75 200 24 370 30 47 114 29 68 14 57 342 12 147 15 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment......... Metalworking machinery and equipment............... Special Industry machinery and equipment........... General Industrial machinery and equipment......... . Machine shop products.............................. 6 39 75 36 60 9 48 51 59 70 6 32 19 35 37 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines.......... . Service Industry machines.......................... . Electric industrial equipment and apparatus........ . Household appliances..... ......................... Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. 29 7 34 7 23 44 9 46 9 28 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and consunlcation equipment...... . Electronic components and accessories.............. . Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.... Motor vehicles and equipment....................... Aircraft and parts................................. 28 22 46 78 13 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment..................... . Scientific and controlling Instruments............. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment..... Miscellaneous manufacturing........................ Transportation and warehousing..................... 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 12 37 61 185 2 5 27 159 755 3 12 39 120 369 2 11 31 615 2,329 525 17 88 223 1,007 393 13 1C3 83 229 115 1C 81 2,564 1,364 183 15 83 155 1 ,C34 231 18 69 121 204 68 46 1 ,686 133 242 54 37 1, 183 441 426 5b 46 1,650 81 271 62 20 158 125 245 56 46 1,564 123 187 49 32 1,017 5 35 26 32 40 184 114 31 196 114 30 142 37 2 32 126 221 2 32 28 294 132 8 52 51 331 51 5t>0 124 34 363 154 242 87 35 204 105 69 12 45 7 21 24 5 27 5 18 21 9 127 8 49 23 8 273 8 59 20 9 411 9 126 42 11 230 8 27 25 1C 328 8 50 21 7 285 7 31 32 27 58 73 11 30 24 17 29 11 23 17 28 40 8 104 57 40 128 31 34 36 30 67 17 35 39 29 103 14 33 136 2C 47 14 35 39 29 82 17 35 37 28 89 23 31 72 20 o7 2,539 31 20 28 80 1,723 6 Cl 14 40 159 1,52 8 20 14 16 67 1 ,442 177 33 17 67 6,737 48 48 19 61 2,898 267 34 15 143 1,286 29 26 26 67 1,598 51 41 20 105 1,581 75 36 18 77 4,741 Communications; except broadcasting................ Radio and television broadcasting.................. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services......... Wholesale and retail trade......................... Finance and Insurance........ ..................... 314 85 254 5,397 1,703 326 135 348 4,431 1,832 2 95 22 9 143 2,383 2,181 341 73 197 2 ,582 1,239 223 53 715 2,574 1,264 226 59 1,185 3, 165 1,950 161 5C 836 3,672 1,476 165 133 3C2 1,754 1, 701 219 66 563 3,716 1,523 219 54 1,02 0 2,865 1,090 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental............................. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto... Business services.................................. Research and development........................... Automobile repair and services..................... 397 272 2, 108 14 615 692 305 3,360 25 444 377 255 5,707 8 222 390 197 1 ,817 .12 273 659 435 1,316 15 356 324 479 1,457 20 220 306 349 1,247 12 195 1,524 406 3,284 6 308 319 486 1,629 14 227 198 500 1,353 17 272 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements......................................... Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... Federal Government enterprises.......... .......... State and local government enterprises............. Gross Imports of goods and services................ 104 1,146 3 76 262 141 281 455 279 139 24 0 513 .150 81 352 332 177 96 221 414 575 90 2 70 509 718 76 273 462 496 162 222 393 311 53 2 54 454 622 93 232 438 669 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts........... Office supplies............ ........................ TOTAL............................................ . 125,514 115,156 95,069 1 80,047 39, 9 7 3 53 , 5 7 4 63,771 25,316 70,737 44,716 See footnotes at end of table, 137 TABLE A-3. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT) —^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND ,1970-/--Continued (Producers1 value,—^ 1958 prices) New construction Industry number and title 11 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Mainte nance and repair construc tion 12 Ordnance and ac cessories Food and kindred products 13 14 Tobacco manu factures 15 Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills 16 Miscel laneous textile goods and floor coverings Apparel Lumber and wood products, except con tainers 20 19 18 17 Miscel laneous fabri cated textile products Livestock and livestock products................... .. Other agricultural products................. ......... Forestry and fishery products...................... .. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services........ . Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.................... . 272 847 522 1)2 88 141 235 189 48 43 262 287 34 43 50 20, 5 2 0 14,941 338 1,824 19 1,4 20 15,959 36 1 ,047 7 1*627 9 ,048 45 o4 2 16 1,422 2,641 44 242 12 719 3, 312 653 265 969 4,427 ac 335 13 906 4,009 7,173 617 11 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining....................... Coal mining.................................... . Crude petroleum and natural gas.................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............. .. . .. .. . 123 170 118 859 25 9C 88 105 496 20 239 93 45 53 14 22 99 82 67 27 17 54 52 49 28 35 191 96 57 63 27 130 69 4 5e 22 92 51 30 40 28 128 65 45 50 25 75 92 54 23 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. New construction..................................... Maintenance and repair construction................ .. Ordnance and accessories........................... .. Food and kindred products........... .................. Tobacco manufactures............................... . 46,719 655 3 190 4 62,716 1 120 2 526 41,361 265 7 1,084 l 24,571 3 504 334 10,896 7 86 1 354 3 6 16 1 290 ' 569 1 236 4 68C 1 2 92 4 774 1 249 4 Ill 50 55 94 4,975 56 26 30 20 1, 779 139 73 107 25 232 129 44 78 137 2 88 70 30 38 37 2 86 47,044 702 2 07 282 258 9,606 22,405 289 338 z n 15,642 402 7 /» 6 C 6 826 2C3 21,953 2,213 8 74 47,556 358 119 73 147 42 69,231 45 3 36 226 656 209 23 17 60 36 5 138 65 71 16 336 27i 168 8 4 8fci 164 4 3 y48 6 13 50 12 5 764 614 24 156 6 955 498 24 11 7 5 64 557 32 197 157 1,165 750 193 169 32 671 343 1,336 569 237 5) 128 417 545 253 39 716 763 374 3C3 47 39 1,059 603 122 1 24 37 1 ,353 723 715 62 19 6 35 2 , 526 4 , 094 165 64 68C 1 97 8 8 2t 544 101 5S 768 1,189 1, 867 75 37 8 71 1,482 2,377 115 967 647 433 64 158 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.... . Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... .. Apparel............................................. ., Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.......... . Lumber and wood products, except containers........ Wooden containers................................... . Household furniture................................. Other furniture and fixtures....................... . Paper and allied products, except containers....... Paperboard containers and boxes.................... Printing and publishing............................ Chemicals and selected chemical products........... Plastics and synthetic materials................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations........... Paints and allied products......................... Ibi c 31. 32. 33. 3A. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industries........... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... Leather tanning and industrial leather products..... Footwear and other leather products................. Glass and glass products............................ . . . . . 159 619 6 21 192 185 363 3 13 286 67 1,416 9 46 159 135 385 3 18 626 88 291 4 13 33 150 679 14 25 217 107 G91 15 65 131 78 466 129 131 97 105 1,944 37 328 163 152 630 4 26 132 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Stone and clay products................ ............ Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................ Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. Metal containers.................................... Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... . . . . . 3,764 2,995 1,080 27 3,8 93 1,629 1,416 eo7 55 2, G49 387 l ,580 2,2 79 21 167 116 591 162 716 56 63 147 114 63 25 118 25b 167 54 49 12 7 74 178 126 29 33 110 269 167 37 45 326 306 179 31 7C 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... Other fabricated metal products..................... Engines and turbines................................ Farm machinery and equipment........................ Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ . . . . . All 1, 1 68 48 48 ?17 231 381 21 17 95 724 866 77 66 73 256 229 18 85 20 49 169 16 91 14 86 210 15 54 28 112 296 13 34 20 67 189 11 26 16 235 583 19 32 21 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment.......... Metalworking machinery and equipment................ Special Industry machinery and equipment............ General industrial machinery and equipment.......... Machine shop products............................... . . . . . 2 30 208 68 AA5 2 36 36 100 38 148 116 18 921 1 18 53 l 8,276 7 79 31 50 84 4 37 32 30 37 11 83 44 3 76 63 S 67 165 51 57 6 47 163 4C 44 9 80 230 82 81 34 73 117 129 113 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines........... . Service Industry machines......... ................. . Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus......... Household appliances............................... . . Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. 75 141 578 145 83 3 23 56 313 131 407 84 126 1,255 37 73 2 46 10 51 11 51 64 10 28 5 23 39 10 71 9 48 32 7 53 35 6 46 10 29 40 10 67 12 46 32 9 60 10 108 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and communication equipment....... . Electronic components and accessories........... . Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.... Motor vehicles and equipment........................ Aircraft and parts.................................. 117 195 12 86 33 118 73 44 45 17 1 t 6l C 7.71 91 l 35 1,529 37 31 40 74 22 27 22 20 29 10 43 36 24 40 19 A2 25 3e 33 16 28 13 50 47 22 43 29 39 34 39 81 24 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment...................... Scientific and controlling instruments.............. . Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... . Miscellaneous manufacturing......................... . Transportation and warehousing...................... 10A 305 48 238 3, 829 51 111 18 204 2, 06C 235 1 ,223 74 254 2,229 49 27 31 120 4 ,116 23 15 41 148 1,643 42 31 49 225 3,542 39 26 AO 512 A 23 36 35 34 1, 161 2,281 39 2C5 41 1 ,C39 3, C09 175 30 26 193 4,712 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Communications; except broadcasting................. . Radio and television broadcasting................... Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.......... Wholesale and retail trade............... .......... . Finance and Insurance............................... . A ’0 216 468 8,6'.8 1,806 204 55 264 6,614 880 4G7 84 338 4,151 1 ,307 379 142 379 5,738 1 ,667 227 210 189 2,590 905 336 108 596 5,532 1,745 327 85 A33 799 352 95 354 5,274 1,595 374 1C1 471 6,894 1,687 341 93 414 5 ,330 1,632 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental.............................. . Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... Business services................................... . Research and development............................ Automobile repair and services...................... 25 A 605 5,384 26 904 148 322 ) ,371 19 368 1 75 963 2 , 099 27 22 5 319 522 3,531 23 901 22 2 347 5,2 38 19 257 275 809 2,691 106 405 231 273 1,027 2,364 47 288 303 971 2,518 60 455 263 808 2,315 16 1,258 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements....... ................................... Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... Federal Government enterprises...................... State and local government enterprises.............. Gross Imports of goods and services................. ? IQ 37 2 647 412 80 204 319 233 152 326 679 269 160 614 518 369 177 290 706 169 141 423 676 452 352 635 362 136 412 687 287 149 432 723 386 134 347 454 414 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............ Office supplies..................................... TOTAL............................................. • 102,694 9 1,527 85,894 >1,685 5 0,425 91,929 761 :4,788 111,699 109 ,905 2C5 136 AO 37 76 2ul 13 37 6 A1 36 31 2G ess &5A 116 71 357 ns Sea footnotes at end of table 139 TABLEA-3. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^--Continued (Producers' v a l u e d 1958 prices) Industry number end title Wooden con tainers 21 House hold furniture Other furniture and fixtures 22 23 Paper and allied prod ucts except con tainers 24 Paperboard con tainers and boxes Printing and pub lishing Chemicals and selected chemical products Plastics and synthetic materials 25 26 27 28 Drugs, cleaning, and toilet prepara tions 29 Paints and allied products 30 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Livestock end livestock products..................... Other agricultural products.......................... Forestry and fishery products........................ Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...................... 497 1,804 2, 993 282 50 564 1,338 808 160 50 282 539 42 9 81 117 409 710 604 102 14 286 443 289 67 12 366 458 147 61 9 555 645 151 8C 98 384 432 53 57 42 805 717 72 53 28 676 636 81 86 55 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining......................... Coal mining........................................... Crude petroleum and natural gas...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... 25 113 84 47 14 69 143 55 61 26 96 184 56 79 19 33 292 110 248 80 23 170 85 124 43 23 102 52 68 33 233 336 294 17C 695 97 293 179 96 274 49 133 ICO 93 56 89 193 150 129 212 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. New construction...................................... Maintenance and repair construction.................. Ordnance and accessories............................. Food and kindred products............................ Tobacco sianufactures............. .................... 721 1 217 4 626 1 423 4 581 3 2C9 5 916 1 366 4 .892 2 258 4 905 4 338 8 747 1 507 7 935 1 358 4 583 2 843 5 722 1 74 3 6 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills...... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...... Apparel............................................... Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... 92 46 79 31 26 , 8 4 8 3,03S 506 1C2 112 7,697 494 524 135 84 4,057 531 136 104 170 5,706 293 90 125 91 2,696 169 86 41 55 1,297 156 52 73 174 482 187 73 ec 83 487 135 69 70 79 44 8 121 43 75 70 394 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Wooden containers..................................... Household furniture................................... Other furniture and fixtures......................... Paper and allied products, except containers......... Paperboard containers and boxes.................... . 77,571 406 78 489 2 72 51 66.47C 411 788 932 44 1,564 52,854 757 981 61 22 17 32,727 1,337 62 13 10 14,820 36,293 20 11 30 7 , 119 545 32 8 5 843 426 31 7 5 1,710 476 25 10 6 1,362 1,466 25 7 4 1,059 671 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing............................... Chemicals and selected chemical products............. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. Paints and allied products........................... 853 366 228 52 100 851 715 762 55 475 73 3 502 383 45 355 1 ,494 1 ,404 691 55 47 1,398 841 539 73 34 65 , 1 8 9 807 210 46 25 586 23.C67 907 39 7 125 502 8,887 21,753 365 196 3,327 3,073 391 17,378 85 1,079 6,914 3,768 397 19,012 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industries........... . Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... • Footwear and other leather products................. Glass and glass products............................ • 134 432 4 n 89 89 2,157 51 61 782 81 762 57 32 1,865 162 1 ,391 5 32 76 130 1,199 6 39 152 74 458 5 31 47 487 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Stone and clay products............... ............. . Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................ . Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. Metal containers.................................... Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 274 1,750 179 23 33 312 1,673 581 54 201 330 4,125 811 41 5 86 394 330 213 38 56 219 323 158 118 51 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... . Other fabricated metal products..................... . Engines and turbines................................ Farm machinery and equipment........................ Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ . 262 633 17 23 27 458 2,753 18 27 38 613 1,894 22 51 62 186 716 16 17 38 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment.......... Metalworking machinery and equipment................ Special Industry machinery and equipment............ General Industrial machinery and equipment.......... Machine shop products.............. ............... . 20 102 227 109 156 4C 221 197 12C 149 18 323 75 206 220 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines........... Service industry machines........................... Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......... Household appliances................................ Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. 29 10 70 11 162 40 18 99 52 106 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and communication equipment....... Electronic components and accessories............... Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.... Motor vehicles and equipment...................... . Aircraft and parts.................................. . . . . 41 37 41 90 23 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment...................... Scientific and controlling Instruments.............. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... Miscellaneous manufacturing......................... Transportation and warehousing...................... . . . . . 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Communications; except broadcasting................. Radio and television broadcasting................... Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.......... Wholesale and retail trade.......................... Finance and insurance............................... . . 159 296 1,202 4 18 118 166 1,159 5 24 987 249 628 4 21 101 135 192 165 24 44 298 709 736 257 62 195 406 352 150 63 22 9 626 244 572 48 609 1 ,125 359 1,142 78 166 477 14 13 26 95 293 16 23 21 159 393 2C SC 141 302 17 16 49 279 564 33 54 35 156 299 17 25 44 15 120 202 96 108 11 112 256 94 103 7 64 191 52 58 46 135 527 121 126 22 147 273 99 106 11 105 158 70 92 19 122 183 91 122 110 263 189 59 114 43 10 88 10 111 32 9 71 12 84 81 12 74 12 46 65 14 159 46 47 11 119 10 56 167 32 80 18 39 49 11 89 14 46 70 66 29 61 24 147 103 33 120 47 41 36 24 42 22 39 34 22 39 22 90 59 19 36 48 55 5C 28 46 24 59 44 22 37 22 67 60 22 42 22 49 40 25 45 24 116 31 24 152 4,590 59 53 33 372 3,125 89 3 84 29 852 2,795 55 48 45 162 3,938 48 35 33 162 4 ,008 38 40 2 38 288 2,755 53 53 57 195 ,C43 47 49 140 155 3, 796 42 248 101 253 2,762 48 45 56 168 4,000 . . 3 36 80 516 6,193 1,624 445 111 446 6, 093 1,404 383 85 470 5,826 1,316 351 99 916 4,865 1,412 333 80 597 5,170 1,493 806 2C2 442 3 , 629 1,721 425 112 87C i,022 ,818 377 110 665 3,628 1,660 508 534 407 3,911 1,705 446 123 532 5,157 1,780 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental.............................. . Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... . Business services................................... . Research and development............................ . Automobile repair and services...................... . 272 1,043 2,003 15 1,426 266 928 2, 766 28 545 239 855 2,121 30 485 201 646 2 ,464 49 453 2 37 7 39 2,005 29 437 472 1,111 5,025 19 390 302 ,785 261 459 243 602 2,754 365 371 291 765 13,340 45 408 300 807 3,070 126 503 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements............................... ........... Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... Federal Government enterprises........ ............. State and local government enterprises.......... . Gross Imports of goods and services................. 136 381 519 466 152 362 533 365 133 333 531 364 130 329 620 o78 123 365 563 479 247 349 1,399 362 171 337 80C 613 143 338 1,052 495 437 32 8 1,215 334 174 376 869 437 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............ Office supplies..................................... TOTAL............................................. 141,367 1 15,930 96,918 70,487 81,044 1 00,228 i,C75 59,922 65,189 62,224 . . . . . . . . . . . . 652 5 22 20 12 820 See footnotes at end of table, H 4=" W TABLEA-3. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)—^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^/— Continued (Producer*' value,^ 1958 prices) Industry number and title 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ..................................... . . . . . . Livestock and livestock products Other agricultural products............... ......... Forestry and fishery products....................... Agricultural, forestry and fishery services......... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.................. . Petroleum refining and related industries Rubber and mis cellaneous plastics products 31 32 220 313 25 38 16 Leather tanning and in dustrial leather products 33 336 572 6C 64 22 198 214 91 33 11 Footwear and other leather products Glass and glass products Stone and clay products 34 35 36 Primary iron and steel manufac turing Primary nonferrous metals manufac turing 37 38 Metal contain ers 39 Beating, plumbing and struc tural metal products 40 257 574 122 63 9 194 293 192 47 12 219 215 58 42 35 161 200 39 34 1,057 16C 210 36 35 96 159 194 36 35 399 187 233 54 49 340 108 3, 312 95 181 1,223 132 216 31 3,059 199 77 87 33 214 502 62 107 22 319 358 78 111 16 186 1 147 6C6 2 147 3 752 2 148 3 689 4 177 269 . 24 100 3,228 194 32 48 175 30 102 108 26 147 59 60 81 20 79 38 43 33 30 165 70 657 42 New construction.................................... Maintenance and repair construction................. Ordnance and accessories............................ Food and kindred products........................... . Tobacco manufactures................................ . 1,056 1 140 2 627 2 240 4 323 1 202 2 411 1 178 4 596 1 174 4 735 1 206 4 44 21 32 25 168 1,476 1,450 249 83 395 96 38 22 103 158 1 ,759 549 479 82 945 94 32 118 30 1,764 189 54 29 52 468 74 29 66 29 305 188 45 81 36 272 90 51 59 25 2 84 114 33 121 42 452 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining........................ Coal sdning.......................................... Crude petroleum and natural gas..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral sdning.............. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. . If 3 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills..... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..... Apparel .................. ........................... Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........... Lumber and wood products, except containers......... 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Wooden containers................................... Household furniture................................. Other furniture and fixtures........................ Paper and allied products, except containers........ Paperboard containers and boxes..................... 10 6 4 354 142 20 24 13 849 515 117 4 2 335 177 52 30 6 864 651 295 135 5 1,575 3,233 95 7 5 1,213 5 06 24 14 6 335 123 12 10 5 377 135 41 11 6 582 546 74 74 99 397 278 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing............................. . Chemicals and selected chemical products............ Plastics and synthetic materials.................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............ Paints and allied products.......................... 907 970 114 91 39 943 2,795 4 , 659 128 62 555 2,029 174 593 20 1 ,301 837 679 152 22 778 1,058 164 72 25 819 997 551 179 54 691 658 137 79 51 631 795 603 64 46 84 6 541 301 10i 384 707 42 7 181 48 . . . 99 320 3 15 54 120 924 17 17 54 lit. 349 10 20 240 482 1,346 29,929 21 79 451 14,270 1,767 24,371 298 606 9,494 2,894 23 38,503 246 787 836 25 20 159 934 725 28 44 112 1,200 1 ,786 144 109 218 52 143 81 92 122 41 558 104 304 1 013 21 642 54 324 575 24 901 67 504 5C6 69 611 208 778 798 32 13 85 21 162 34 11 123 10 228 32 15 343 18 87 29 19 347 3C 451 32 18 254 93 94 52 243 780 249 214 40 71 16 27 19 33 32 22 34 15 42 52 31 59 26 54 52 37 118 30 125 95 318 109 22 50 47 41 89 100 93 156 66 189 68 25 40 21 90 2 ,154 30 133 81 324 2 , 072 36 73 29 132 2,739 52 60 31 220 4,550 125 5 C22 81 73 27 175 2,903 76 65 28 139 3,839 405 561 36 163 3,158 344 103 513 4,306 1, 390 244 58 305 3,060 1,200 335 137 280 3 , 843 1 ,425 293 88 959 4,063 1,480 339 94 1,005 3,791 1,675 1 203 4 50C 1 579 336 77 913 4,647 1,606 301 86 731 5,088 1,524 407 92 635 4,885 1 ,613 900 375 3, 738 53 434 231 733 2,570 92 300 119 460 1,441 26 242 206 955 3 ,421 21 266 187 7 32 2,192 101 332 227 714 2 , 350 22 627 235 600 1 985 367 193 576 1,919 88 313 203 6C3 2,152 55 336 211 772 2 ,285 67 463 1.64 315 657 493 138 333 624 389 79 247 83 7 252 156 342 776 236 123 296 711 606 132 314 562 732 115 337 579 809 110 335 507 587 117 358 536 520 134 351 555 459 138 , 6 9 0 78,085 71, 106 60,858 70,626 83,214 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industries........... . Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... . Footwear and other leather products................. . Glass and glass products............................ 6,1!7 217 2 io 42 124 3 3,523 40 141 595 89 595 36,602 233 68 57 3 ,099 7,068 1C1 ,157 97 83 4 32 3 17 4 6,934 153 785 8 21 101 19C 393 3 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Stone and clay products............................. Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................ Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. . Metal containers.................................... Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 190 3 86 >55 186 73 292 423 270 51 63 501 153 110 46 21 279 212 130 23 34 1,455 260 194 30 54 42,488 509 226 30 76 745 38 202 945 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... Other fabricated metal products..................... Engines and turbines................................ Farm machinery and equipment......................... Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ 94 657 43 20 98 262 643 15 18 31 85 166 8 8 19 113 494 12 20 15 2°6 337 13 21 42 173 707 19 18 151 543 1 117 37 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment.......... Metalworking machinery and equipment................ Special Industry machinery and equipment............ General Industrial machinery and equipment.......... Machine shop products.... ........................... 11 76 52 195 62 13 121 137 103 33 C 7 67 56 38 48 7 63 54 44 74 15 130 58 113 116 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines........... Service Industry machines........................... . Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus......... Household appliances................................ Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. 49 11 151 9 29 39 10 97 24 116 22 5 58 5 63 46 9 50 9 76 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and communication equipment....... Electronic components and accessories............... Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.... Motor vehicles and equipment........................ Aircraft and parts.................................. 52 90 23 47 21 89 70 26 35 73 23 21 13 23 12 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment...................... Scientific and controlling Instruments.............. Optical, ophthalsiic and photographic equipment...... Miscellaneous manufacturing......................... Transportation and warehousing...................... 47 31 31 103 4,125 51 109 64 352 2,943 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Communications; except broadcasting................. Radio and television broadcasting................... Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.......... Wholesale and retail trade.......................... Finance and Insurance............................... 253 151 597 2,254 1,786 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental.............................. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... Business services................................... Research and development........................... . Automobile repair and services...................... 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements............... ............................ Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... Federal Government enterprises...................... State and local government enterprises.............. Gross Imports of goods and services................. 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............ Office supplies..................................... TOTAL............................................. . 33,989 69,460 55,934 74,805 1A 47 22 2oe 86 60 26 125 371 8C 116 See footnotes at end of table, w ■pUl TABLEA-3. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OP DELIVERY TO PINAL DEMAND, 1970^--Continued (Producer*' v a l u e 1958 prices) Industry number sad title Stamp ings, screw machine products, and bolts 41 Other fabricated metal products 42 Engines and turblnaa 43 Farm machin ery and equip ment Construc tion,min ing and oil field machinery Materials handling machin ery and equipment Metal working machin ery and equipment Special industry machin ery and equipment General industrial machin ery and equipment Machineshop products 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Livestock and livestock products...................... Other agricultural products........................... Forestry and fishery products......................... Agricultural, forestry and fishery services........... Iron and ferroalloy ores and nlnlng................... 196 251 75 40 244 205 272 98 44 239 184 211 30 36 145 199 266 55 188 170 192 224 38 40 207 241 2 94 43 47 162 192 230 35 36 117 233 288 74 45 127 217 252 42 42 145 179 209 23 33 111 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Nonferrous natal ores mining.......................... Coal mining............................................ Crude petroleum and natural gaa....................... Stona and clay mining and quarrying................... Chemical and fertiliser mineral mining................ 280 342 81 101 20 291 330 74 105 24 187 241 57 82 12 100 268 60 92 15 101 299 65 97 14 131 228 61 85 15 159 169 55 76 11 215 187 62 74 14 172 215 58 2C4 13 311 176 75 113 11 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. New construction....................................... Maintenance and repair construction................... Ordnance and accessories.............................. Pood and kindred products............................. Tobacco manufactures................................... 670 5 183 4 636 3 191 5 504 4 179 5 572 14 175 4 567 4 186 5 595 3 230 6 621 4 178 5 58C 9 224 6 597 7 212 6 724 2 167 4 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills....... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....... Apparel................................................ Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............. Lumber and wood products, except containers........... 122 48 129 45 645 157 71 128 30 864 103 46 105 36 218 125 73 107 32 461 100 46 110 29 291 220 72 121 32 320 10 3 39 124 43 274 166 49 127 25 626 119 34 122 26 32 7 83 24 137 22 152 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Wooden containers...................................... Household furniture.................................... Other furniture and fixtures.......................... Paper and allied products, except containers.......... Paperboard containers and boxes.;..................... 43 29 16 568 468 59 82 62 4 94 318 13 15 9 365 294 31 16 40 341 205 16 26 10 299 144 19 20 37 368 189 15 15 8 238 113 25 42 11 352 133 22 42 20 387 183 12 12 6 215 83 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing................................ Chemicals and selected chemical products.............. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... Drug*, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............. Paints and allied products............................ 729 513 330 58 142 866 605 231 50 68 726 288 193 44 59 895 376 27 6 49 113 709 324 193 47 64 812 372 304 55 95 588 262 158 38 3* 723 364 238 49 39 6 91 321 169 43 48 563 240 132 44 25 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industries............ Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... Leather tanning and Industrial leather products...... Footwear and other leather products.................. Glass and glass products............................. • • • • • 1 20 600 12 50 126 109 584 9 29 74 87 561 12 24 98 91 1 ,366 43 25 82 97 773 11 20 68 92 1,213 18 44 104 83 452 9 27 88 96 619 45 23 77 86 455 15 22 70 113 277 25 154 44 36. 37. 38. 3?. 40. Stone and clay products.............................. Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............. Metal containers..................................... Heating, plumbing and structural metal products...... • • • 64 3 8,589 2,529 107 410 6C7 8,401 2,572 40 45 0 586 5,075 1,701 18 193 526 6,062 819 23 241 558 7,385 807 19 837 485 5,725 1,134 23 6 83 559 4,009 1,455 23 269 451 4,415 1,985 19 576 695 5,093 1,557 19 8 84 1 ,048 3,783 2,950 15 171 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... Other fabricated smtal products...................... Engines and turbines................................. Farm machinery and equipment......................... Construction, mining and oil field machinery......... • 58,188 • 1,763 • 71 • 76 • 98 1,515 40 , 9 8 0 61 77 201 1,509 569 2 9,625 603 1 ,192 2 ,119 712 1 ,271 39, 0 9 6 556 893 1,065 895 783 37,030 1,293 1,432 482 263 2,002 1,68C 1,322 103 93 148 982 1,127 90 146 378 947 1,261 406 131 396 528 1 ,249 164 54 194 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment........... Metalworking machinery and equipment................. Special industry machinery and equipment............. General Industrial swchlnery and equipment........... Machine shop products....... ........................ . . • • • 31 871 79 218 726 68 1, 600 168 606 64 3 94 1 , 337 116 1,636 3,41 8 60 1 ,274 184 2 ,775 1 ,905 287 1,280 152 2,956 920 37 , 9 5 4 1,244 265 3,701 1,9 54 132 5 2 , C05 402 1,805 892 246 1,480 44,328 2,927 697 368 1,250 350 41,866 925 38 1,197 316 671 85,503 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines............ Service Industry machines............................ Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.......... Household appliances................................. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............... • . . . . 55 65 374 98 293 44 56 396 86 207 35 29 1,064 24 157 47 47 608 129 128 48 53 783 31 139 82 90 2 ,493 31 273 33 81 1,423 84 137 93 160 2,007 70 152 41 263 2,571 42 186 53 34 411 21 130 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and communication equipment........ Electronic components and accessories................ Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment..... Motor vehicles and equipment......................... Aircraft and parts................................... . . . . . 90 124 88 661 58 89 116 69 212 47 106 117 784 718 269 88 87 375 483 104 123 108 139 419 73 140 201 165 338 106 116 127 90 1,140 158 712 488 72 168 132 258 242 1C5 252 418 110 85 137 175 98 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment....................... Scientific and controlling Instruments............... Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment....... Miscellaneous manufacturing.......................... Transportation and warehousing....................... . • . . . 77 169 48 353 3,003 102 237 36 267 2, 893 527 139 30 175 2 , 406 184 160 38 170 2,615 330 133 31 145 2,693 301 167 37 1,442 2 , 667 77 152 32 223 1,577 230 218 116 165 2,383 330 467 43 138 2,515 205 127 31 111 2,059 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Communications; except broadcasting.................. Radio and television broadcasting.................... Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........... Wholesale and retail trade........................... Finance and Insurance................................ . . . • • 331 83 668 4,315 1,567 349 97 635 4, 674 1,468 331 88 425 4 ,004 1 ,305 356 131 463 4 , 736 1,500 374 96 511 4,619 1,438 420 107 459 5,501 1,604 525 80 421 3,842 1,377 616 89 450 4,812 1,420 597 88 475 5,231 1,348 469 75 486 3,913 1,440 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental............................... Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... Business services.................................... Research and development............................. Automobile repair and services....................... . . . . . 220 802 2,071 44 339 199 e2 5 2,422 42 358 175 748 2,190 553 256 194 733 3 , 274 52 344 191 779 2,392 47 3 30 240 913 2,674 38 338 265 819 1,985 26 266 225 505 2,225 25 377 204 874 2,204 34 315 251 836 1 ,874 26 325 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements........................................... Medical, educational and nonprofit organisations..... . Federal Government enterprises....................... . State and local government enterprises............... . Gross Imports of goods and services.................. 128 342 541 472 140 332 545 450 137 32 5 497 321 157 325 661 358 139 337 506 375 161 345 607 351 126 303 453 307 144 331 518 339 143 329 531 355 121 314 489 346 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. Office supplies...................................... TOTAL.............................................. • 99,165 82,791 70,776 83,099 78,665 8 7 ,580 86,148 85,672 82,135 117,138 • See footnotes at end of table, H TABLEA-3 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AMD INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^ — Continued (Producer*1 value,2^ 1958 prices) Service industry machines Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus House hold appliances Electric lighting and wiring equlpsMnt Radio, televi sion,and comaunlcation equipment 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 . . . . . 268 283 33 44 34 244 305 77 51 122 266 293 44 44 93 236 310 63 48 120 224 2 63 49 46 97 2 82 325 63 49 36 285 323 48 50 4S 245 290 36 44 89 201 306 43 45 151 126 162 36 25 61 6. 7^ 8. 9. 10. Nonferrous metal oras mining......................... . . . Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. . Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... . 85 72 32 37 10 246 203 61 83 22 2 92 153 51 66 18 202 205 56 85 23 271 161 52 90 26 127 95 40 55 19 177 114 50 77 .37 442 143 56 96 38 147 256 63 84 21 164 110 38 49 10 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Hew construction...................................... . . Food and kindrad products............................ . . 414 13 274 8 665 8 229 6 533 15 269 7 6 06 7 220 5 516 3 217 5 528 132 281 8 550 47 276 7 525 5 237 6 796 6 172 4 451 336 116 3 . . . . , 91 42 103 20 223 149 62 120 37 651 115 41 117 25 325 292 104 121 36 519 120 58 123 27 379 163 51 119 27 498 115 38 143 29 335 217 127 134 49 229 548 252 115 474 341 104 50 113 20 293 29 49 23. 24. 25. . . . . Paper and allied products, except containers......... Paperboard containers and boxes...................... . 542 182 306 92 53 619 518 16 49 10 612 292 316 33 33 671 550 25 22 7 707 895 17 1,207 15 652 416 21 356 9 798 426 17 29 7 519 449 22 41 27 557 267 11 68 113 230 134 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing.............................. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. Paints and allied products........................... . 1.021 . 261 . 214 . 29 . 40 8C6 582 330 58 160 692 493 413 39 93 1,879 622 4 86 51 165 706 742 8 29 50 135 928 5 54 465 42 47 660 1,114 438 46 46 869 1,090 685 53 42 1, C81 557 478 66 150 457 262 184 33 4 Industry number and tltl. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. Livestock and livestock products..................... Other agricultural products.......................... Forestry and fishery products........................ Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...................... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...... Apparel............................................... Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ Lumber and wood products, except containers.......... ia Elec tronic com ponents and ac cessories Miscel laneous electrical machin ery and equipment Office, com puting, and account ing machines 58 Motor vehicles and equipment 59 Aircraft and parts 60 1 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industrie*........... . Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... . Footwear and other leather products.................. Glass and glass products............................ . 91 992 13 35 247 76 460 9 25 165 81 1,890 26 159 196 77 1,029 12 25 1,470 61 755 13 27 555 73 564 7 25 1, 120 82 2,486 10 31 220 92 1,675 21 28 765 55 537 5 19 89 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Stone and clay products.............................. Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. . Metal containers..................................... Heating, plumbing and structural metal products...... 573 4,164 2,280 33 1,096 473 2 ,816 2,756 25 199 614 4,108 1,843 34 756 551 3,219 2,168 31 162 373 1,156 1,179 23 91 515 1,505 1,620 29 82 681 2,186 3,924 28 92 455 5,311 1,274 30 173 363 2,076 1,543 15 101 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......... Other fabricated metal products..................... . Engines and turbines.............................. . Farm machinery end equipment......................... Construction, mining and oil field machinery..... . .. 2, 546 1,577 116 52 97 1,161 686 43 7 39 113 3,271 1 ,724 61 51 80 1,591 1,052 35 35 65 1,469 813 28 21 44 1,637 855 30 18 66 1, 626 693 76 55 121 2,708 2,557 165 95 98 1 ,345 801 69 26 51 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment............. Metalworking suchlnery and equipment................. Special industry machinery and equipment............. General Industrial machinery and equipment........... Machine shop products................................ 12 74 527 185 1,027 405 35 875 95 601 432 23 693 71 720 381 14 511 52 218 379 11 461 59 172 268 12 474 70 154 253 22 1,005 69 995 1,068 34 1,113 79 570 1,162 35 1 ,317 63 738 1 ,347 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing end accounting machines........... ...35, 504 Service Industry machines........................... . Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus............ 95>4 Household appliances................................ . Electric lighting and wiring equipment................. 296 57 21,438 4,234 1,617 54C 68 26 41,532 40 974 119 786 2,119 23, 7 9 7 526 39 37 1,628 31 46,230 133 32 1,157 35 607 214 14 1,595 42 515 72 27 1,305 103 2,013 61 89 376 29 414 56 38 425 95 178 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 775 Radio, television and communication equipment.......... Electronic component* and accessories................ .. 7.586 Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment....... 51 52 Motor vehicles end equipment......................... Aircraft and parts................................... .. 179 359 349 83 389 189 801 1,844 174 122 62 158 218 73 165 53 238 375 1,211 92 24 32,168 11,197 67 64 220 1,227 46,812 75 62 30 432 550 37,118 849 53 544 313 887 19,653 50 1 ,495 938 205 242 45,264 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment......................... 36 263 Scientific and controlling Instruments............... .. 41 Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment....... 181 Miscellaneous manufacturing.......................... Transportation and warehousing....................... .. 1,852 118 1,035 48 222 2,799 300 799 64 142 2 , 414 165 1 ,461 136 254 2,769 52 223 37 363 2,445 52 436 146 225 2,547 44 341 48 192 2,225 62 321 58 180 2,605 120 397 46 213 3,267 53 1,083 127 185 1,593 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 3 59 Coomunicatlons; except broadcasting.................... Radio and television broadcasting...................... 121 256 Electric, gas, water and sanitary services............. Wholesale and retail trade........................... ^ 4,836 1,039 Finance and insurance............................... . 416 109 486 6,334 1,657 364 81 401 4,175 1,122 515 318 472 5 ,339 1 ,290 324 94 423 6,197 1,194 362 122 291 4, 893 1,106 310 81 391 5,485 1,157 385 125 456 4,503 1,263 384 162 517 5,237 1,428 349 49 333 2,907 823 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental............................... ,. 1 85 Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... ,. 1,014 3,025 Business services.................................... 17 Research and development............................ . 225 Automobile repair and services...... ...... ......... .. 277 881 2, 708 34 399 195 1,004 2,021 33 271 234 894 7,933 33 337 222 860 2,3 36 37 286 216 1,045 3 , 056 70 265 298 1, C89 2,014 10 2 24C 217 526 3,131 43 305 198 700 4,040 102 340 147 385 1,231 118 168 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements........................................... .. Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations..... ,. Federal Government enterprises....................... ,. State and local government enterprises............... ,. Gross Imports of goods end services.................. 181 269 566 2 15 160 361 634 377 151 324 652 309 298 351 955 366 145 328 609 331 184 338 758 256 156 320 77C 308 170 346 737 351 177 395 785 400 78 274 387 243 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............. Office supplies...................................... TOTAL.............................................. ^.65,796 71,305 77,425 7 6,978 85,951 76,908 81,953 81,752 67,003 73,870 3C See footnotes st end of table, 4=" TABLEA-3 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^--Continued (Producers' value,2/ 1958 prices) Industry number and title Other transpor tation equipment Scientific and con trolling instru ments Optical, ophthal mic and photo graphic equipment 61 62 63 64 65 Miscel laneous manu facturing Trans porta tion and ware housing Com munica tions; except broad casting 66 Radio and televi sion broad casting 67 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Livestock and livestock products...................... Other agricultural products........................... Forestry and fishery products......................... Agricultural, forestry and fishery services........... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................... 233 359 235 60 160 383 553 46 68 51 213 261 51 40 26 339 700 231 85 48 201 308 27 39 10 85 105 14 14 3 302 343 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining.......... ................ Coal mining............................................ Crude petroleum and natural gas....................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................ 163 257 69 98 22 202 100 41 55 17 127 140 55 110 58 185 126 60 63 35 21 65 166 43 8 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. New construction....................................... Maintenance and repair construction................... Ordnance and accessories.............................. Food and kindred products...... ....................... Tobacco manufactures.................................. 597 3 208 5 477 151 378 8 457 11 203 4 721 3 274 6 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills....... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....... Apparel....... ........................................ Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............. Lumber and wood products, except containers........... 174 69 139 55 2,161 567 111 259 55 318 133 48 97 36 367 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Wooden containers..................................... Household furniture.................................... Other furniture and fixtures.......................... Paper and allied products, except containers.......... Paperboard containers and boxes....................... 28 412 251 394 187 33 94 215 613 470 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing............................... Chemicals and selected chemical products.............. Plastics and synthetic materials...................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............. Paints and allied products........................... . 699 588 624 60 221 769 448 348 79 44 Electric, M *. water, and sanitary services 68 Whole sale and retail trade 69 Finance and insur ance 70 56 4 120 143 23 23 9 359 408 28 241 5 276 356 21 41 3 16 24 18 19 3 13 33 24 18 4 20 1,325 4S3 46 7 9 64 53 26 5 6 49 35 18 4 2 , 953 2 169 2 1,803 4 72 2 1,117 7 233 7 3,675 1 1C6 2 1,044 1 328 5 1,092 1 204 5 1 ,155 289 176 105 1 , 822 76 46 29 42 196 39 20 10 34 108 101 54 22 1C7 157 31 13 15 11 188 65 27 56 40 195 81 47 19 87 147 17 21 8 1,494 432 43 39 58 1 ,687 1,598 34 10 8 221 70 3 32 3 221 38 7 60 4 473 128 6 5 5 183 42 56 14 10 446 198 6 4 4 555 102 1 ,295 1,768 236 53 29 1 ,271 992 1 ,171 116 192 740 203 116 26 72 1,305 70 41 10 24 1,542 112 74 17 20 555 190 52 15 5C 1,264 137 63 43 24 2,427 107 60 29 18 24 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industries........... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......... Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... Footwear and other leather products................. Glass and glass products............................ 61 843 41 126 295 86 576 10 68 575 93 1 ,937 26 9 651 338 300 514 6 12 70 25 98 2 9 31 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Stone and clay products............................. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................ Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. Metal containers.................................... Heating, plumbing and structural metal products..... 359 1 , 660 1, 800 83 130 979 618 1,101 31 43 279 1 ,511 1 ,710 41 81 132 310 178 20 126 67 101 149 5 64 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... Other fabricated metal products..................... Engines and turbines................ .......... . Farm machinery and equipment...................... ... Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ 1,243 1,054 41 38 68 439 607 24 26 42 818 982 22 35 37 106 201 81 15 23 58 69 6 8 7 25 89 15 75 117 106 141 2 8 32 73 23C 5 34 91 53 216 3 20 27 199 298 131 11 140 119 144 75 18 82 53 82 50 11 42 99 90 12 19 63 438 17 11 74 73 115 16 27 23 31 61 12 18 9 2 25 8 15 22 3 39 14 12 52 15 56 4C 9 39 26 40 67 3 21 14 16 28 59 4C 8 88 11 47 72 20 46 18 33 63 9 24 8 17 42 35 16 39 11 87 54 40 99 24 48 32 16 32 9 36 19 16 86 2,096 25 44 52 155 1,149 41 18 40 181 1,495 579 179 515 116,010 1,897 918 175 224 1,656 82,724 33 160 8 64 50 66 131 112 11 45 10 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment.......... Metalworking machinery and equipment................ Special Industry machinery and equipment............ General industrial machinery and equipment.......... Machine shop products................ ...... ..... . 15 872 127 444 966 10 331 116 79 164 12 183 85 135 355 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines........... Service industry machines........................... Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......... Household appliances................................ Electric lighting and wiring equipment.............. 537 63 1,731 52 306 96 15 657 12 258 140 22 350 80 221 31 11 109 13 59 25 5 51 7 33 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and communication equipment....... Electronic components and accessories............... Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.... Motor vehicles and equipment........................ Aircraft and parts.................................. 887 1, 990 102 402 398 357 205 169 49 25 22 7 225 49 79 39 84 90 125 172 190 824 322 27 15 9 1, 530 547 12 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment...................... Scientific and controlling instruments.............. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... Miscellaneous manufacturing......................... Transportation and warehousing...................... 121 41,891 2 83 404 2,297 60 76 8 4 1,918 208 2,162 139 122 41 46 , 8 5 7 2,650 453 72 20 144 5 2,493 32 20 20 116 516 21 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Communications; except broadcasting................. Radio and television broadcasting................... Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.......... Wholesale and retail trade.......................... 396 100 319 5,276 1,215 357 213 315 4,269 1,269 456 129 408 6,355 1,681 556 83 271 3,140 2,344 3 3 ,552 68 176 931 700 1, 744 38, 862 1: 948 1 630 246 70 16,876 2,044 1,126 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental.............................. Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... Business services................................... Research and development............................ Automobile repair and services...................... 224 1,096 2,490 27 264 241 74 8 5,324 144 2 93 282 931 3,218 37 431 386 289 2,052 10 2 ,072 178 217 1,704 4 215 586 726 4, 419 7 250 225 265 1,733 6 325 523 902 4,460 5 925 864 598 4,362 5 517 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements.......................................... Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations.... Federal Government enterprises...................... State and local government enterprises.............. Gross imports of goods and services................. 173 329 547 268 216 285 742 259 172 343 7 04 338 193 247 502 1,460 112 183 633 139 24, 219 28C 501 186 eo 229 2,490 8,444 315 244 1,538 544 230 1,054 2,054 386 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts............ Office supplies..................................... TOTAL....... .................................... . 8 1 ,410 75,348 89 , 8 9 0 7 5,989 4 5,745 85 ,764 46,150 137,074 104,377 2,180 21 33 11 78 11 44 20 17 35 82 532 1, 111 212 See footnotes at end of table, •6" VO 150 TABLE A-3. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^/--Continued (Producer*1 value,!/ 1958 price*) Industry number and title Real estate and rental 71 Hotel*; per sonal and repair service*, except auto 72 Business service* Research and develop ment 73 74 Auto mobile repair and servlcas 75 Medical, educa tional and non profit organisa tions Aanisements 76 Federal Govern ment enter prises 78 77 State and local govern ment enter prises 7* Business travel, enter tain ment, and gifts 81 Office supplies * 82 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Livestock and livestock products.................... Other agricultural product*.......................... Forestry and fishery product*........................ Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.......... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...................... 951 1,747 26 166 7 284 474 41 56 10 263 317 46 43 8 303 345 30 43 6 193 277 27 49 36 415 387 22 133 4 453 485 30 58 fc 1,493 1,145 41 143 11 108 151 48 38 13 6,662 5, 944 257 681 13 371 558 273 75 20 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Nonferrou* metal ores mining......................... Coal mining........................................ . Crude petroleum and natural ga*...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... 14 38 53 56 6 27 77 76 43 17 19 110 45 28 11 10 30 20 17 10 59 160 56 66 15 10 36 24 23 4 13 57 42 3C 5 10 454 59 37 6 26 715 130 112 11 24 77 108 52 17 55 159 70 115 51 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. New construction...................................... Maintenance and repair construction.................. Ordnance and accessories............................. Food and kindred products............................ Tobacco manufactures................................. 1 125 1 797 3 224 5 744 2 228 5 342 1 293 8 1,440 2 143 3 1,593 1 203 6 2,187 3 420 6 1,028 1 1,716 3 13,065 1 87 2 1,738 7 7,487 238 868 3 334 6 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills...... Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...... Apparel............................................... Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............ Lumber and wood product*, except container*.......... 45 14 41 17 210 960 122 612 554 265 113 56 41 76 370 258 173 90 250 188 266 183 64 207 202 65 39 18 74 149 126 52 145 96 187 55 21 18 51 158 43 27 35 14 430 241 59 198 141 273 426 142 81 93 2,461 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Wooden container*..................................... Household furniture.................................. Other furniture and fixtures......................... Paper and allied products, except containers......... Paperboard containers and boxes...................... 13 6 7 149 44 16 69 24 728 225 11 12 9 1,729 191 9 10 6 669 221 17 16 10 344 178 7 4 5 284 81 5 8 8 467 158 21 4 3 534 164 8 6 14 268 59 79 31 9 533 3 76 34 15 31 12,512 905 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Printing and publishing.............................. Chemicals and selected chemical products............. Plastics and synthetic materials..................... Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............. Paint* and allied product*........................... 621 155 51 22 66 931 506 225 339 28 1 3,170 280 113 47 20 897 249 277 239 15 50 400 3 94 60 213 1 , 334 103 60 20 29 1,832 241 87 679 33 1, 328 136 59 20 25 86C 306 88 30 1 54 989 418 160 204 50 36,805 1,189 530 63 58 1 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Petroleum refining and related Industries......... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........ Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.... Footwear and other leather products............... Glass and glass products.......................... 115 526 14 94 114 64 345 7 30 46 31 1 ,575 7 33 63 73 2 , 000 7 24 773 31 136 23 249 32 54 284 4 31 91 86 211 4 30 74 114 197 2 8 73 187 479 36 425 270 103 1,240 47 130 133 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Stone and clay products........................... Primary iron and steel manufacturing.............. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing........... Metal containers..... ............................. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.... 296 286 215 27 55 88 223 1 56 14 42 52 162 80 20 43 431 1,198 508 26 93 77 114 87 10 71 97 161 10 2 39 81 197 172 78 55 45 373 42 5 216 18 435 166 409 198 233 87 236 538 444 32 55 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts....... Other fabricated metal products................... Engines and turbines.............................. Farm machinery and equipment...................... Construction, mining and oil field machinery...... 167 279 14 17 17 103 149 122 225 48 60 102 19 18 11 544 1,138 41 30 38 42 66 11 18 10 106 106 11 16 12 67 139 21 15 27 85 343 12 11 53 191 2 54 42 43 21 245 647 17 23 29 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Materials handling machinery and equipment........ Metalworking machinery and equipment.............. Special Industry machinery and equipment.......... General industrial machinery and equipment........ Machine shop products............................. 5 66 37 48 73 5 98 54 61 75 5 116 21 33 42 12 273 39 151 1,551 3 22 11 17 24 4 35 21 27 43 9 40 13 30 74 13 48 18 52 66 14 85 27 63 97 11 109 179 82 126 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Office, computing and accounting machines......... Service industry machines......................... Electric industrial equipment and apparatus....... Household appliances.............................. Electric lighting and wiring equipment............ 54 106 160 32 6 83 74 9 100 90 18 38 45 81 56 17 21 47 24 166 16 337 55 10 33 11 24 54 1C 6C 13 31 28 6 40 7 30 27 15 90 30 S8 45 28 115 171 65 256 14 132 22 94 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Radio, television and communication equipment..... Electronic components and accessories............. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment... Motor vehicles and equipment...................... Aircraft and parts......................... ...... 132 1,083 38 67 15 177 131 31 54 22 40 30 10 21 12 134 99 755 3,198 23 41 30 10 15 7 84 73 34 33 14 36 31 45 129 40 45 32 27 82 10 431 326 72 109 89 104 93 27 45 41 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Other transportation equipment.................... Scientific and controlling Instruments............ Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.... Miscellaneous manufacturing................ ...... Transportation and warehousing.................... 62 374 407 1 ,137 1,496 62 40 405 700 1,634 509 27 34 531 1 ,359 99 203 33 133 1,827 28 20 267 1,005 1,096 61 6 36 172 186 1,296 96 24 22 108 10,307 29 32 20 131 1,668 2 07 167 161 582 22,227 59 64 495 7,533 3,044 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Communications; except broadcasting............... Radio and television broadcasting................. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........ Wholesale and retail trade........................ Finance and Insurance............................. 402 134 566 4,285 2 , 068 1 , 369 2,552 3 92 2,728 1,838 293 144 107 2,387 1 , 223 521 130 643 7,510 3 , 052 440 173 277 1 ,936 2,909 486 126 485 2,356 1, 583 305 8C 502 2,413 88C 335 74 1,716 2,462 1,290 451 120 353 7,409 1,950 621 162 561 4,393 1,62 6 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Real estate and rental............................ Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.. ... Business services................................. Research and development.......................... Automobile repair and services.................... 514 152,615 3, 337 15 1 , 057 497 1,333 63,791 12 654 262 847 3,602 80,885 150 431 475 3,229 28 70,534 608 614 4, 299 4 153 652 1,356 3, 181 165 360 219 365 2,001 35 1,284 226 465 1,856 277 379 21,036 2,996 17 1,300 366 954 4,032 34 410 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Amusements.................... ................... Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations... Federal Government enterprises.................... State and local government enterprises............ Gross imports of goods and services............... 163 280 533 459 1,832 184 3,465 303 1 ,348 246 324 117 152 3 32 637 5 84 1 37,245 284 493 227 630 146 , 3 61 475 353 117 130 126,281 543 83 113 545 55,646 2,398 1,171 567 797 203 342 1,067 440 81. 82. Business travel, entertainment and gifts.......... Office supplies................................... TOTAL........................................... i 82;176 105,259 102,231 110,382 1 58,921 1 70,611 156*233 86,869 96,130 89,966 771 There is no eaiployment in Business travel, entertainment and gifts (81); and Office supplies (82) which are duemy sectors and serve in an input-output framework as a central distributing mechanism for itama produced by various industries but with a similar distribution pattern. The figures in each column show total amployment directly and indirectly attributable to $1 billion of delivery to final demand by the Industry named at the top. Employment shown does not Include any multiplier effects from responding of income generated. Valuation of final demand is at the site of production and excludes cost of transporting and handling necessary to bring the item to the final user. U 2/ 151 1/ Primary mnployment ia employment required in the induatry producing the product or aervlce. Thia lncludea not only the employment initially required by thia Induatry but any indirect employ ment effect from ita aupportlng induatriea requiramanta. Indirect maployment covera employment in each of the aupportlng induatriea. Employment covera wage and salary amployeaa, aelf-employed and unpaid family workere. Employment ia not generated by the following induatriea becauae they do not purchase goods and services from other industries: Gross imports of goods and services (80); Scrap, used and second hand goods (83); Rest of the world (85); Household (86); and Inventory valuation adjustment (87). 6 152 Table A-4. Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970 (In thousands) Sele cted years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 1965 3 per cent unem 4 percent unemployment ploy ment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model 59,762 63,398 64,208 65.600 67,621 75,823 74,673 74,673 74,673 1,2 Agriculture— ^...................................... 5,844 5,190 4,946 4,761 4,585 4,080 4,080 4,080 4,080 3 Forestry and fishery products..................... 61 61 63 66 68 69 68 69 67 4 Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services...... 118 121 126 132 136 143 143 142 143 28 5 Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.,.,..... ........ 37 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 6 Nonferrous metal ores m ining...................... 56 55 53 52 55 51 51 52 50 7 Coal mining............................... ........ 215 152 149 148 142 124 122 122 122 8 Crude petroleum and natural g a s .................. 328 298 289 289 282 240 238 238 239 9,10 Nonmetallic mining and quarrying................. 115 118 117 117 120 142 140 142 139 2,777 2,902 2,963 3,056 3,211 3,700 3,663 3,753 3,535 11,12 Construction.......................... ............. 13 Ordnance and accessories.......... ............... 14 Food and kindred products......................... IS Tobacco manufactures.............................. 16 Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills... 145 269 266 247 236 235 235 236 234 1,773 1,762 1,752 1,746 1,738 1,693 1,683 1,664 1,673 95 90 89 89 84 81 80 79 80 608 578 568 570 578 564 557 560 557 17 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.. 104 104 104 106 110 100 98 103 98 18 Apparel............................................. 1,256 1,337 1,346 1,363 1,419 1,514 1,494 1,487 1,495 19 Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........ 126 146 150 154 161 178 175 177 176 20,21 Lumber and wood products................. ........ 615 590 593 603 606 578 571 583 558 22 Household furniture............................... 260 275 279 293 311 360 356 384 354 23 Other furniture and fixtures...................... 100 110 110 113 118 151 149 158 144 24 Paper and allied products,except containers..... 399 428 429 431 435 496 490 493 489 25 Paperboard containers and boxes.................. 165 187 190 194 202 229 226 229 226 26 Printing and publishing................. ......... 873 926 931 950 977 1,128 1,114 1,117 1,116 27 Chemicals and selected chemical products......... 401 414 408 409 419 425 421 424 419 28 Plastics and synthetic materials.... ............. 143 165 175 183 199 224 221 226 219 29 D r u g s ,c l e a n i n g ,an d toilet p r e p a r a t i o n s ............ 189 207 219 221 219 237 233 231 236 30 Paints and allied products....................... 61 63 63 64 65 65 64 65 59 31 Petroleum refining and related industries........ 224 195 189 183 178 167 164 164 165 494 32 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...... 344 408 418 434 464 503 497 512 33 Leather tanning and industrial leather products.. 41 36 34 35 35 33 32 33 32 34 Footwear and other leather products......... 318 325 315 314 319 329 323 323 323 35 Glass and glass products.......... ............... 142 158 160 162 167 180 177 182 177 36 Stone and clay products........................... 421 435 441 450 454 477 473 483 462 37 Primary iron and steel manufacturing......... 846 840 844 898 934 939 930 965 909 38 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.......... 307 326 329 333 362 388 385 398 378 39 Metal containers................................... 70 70 72 73 73 76 75 75 75 40 Heating.plumbing,and structural metal products... 421 407 416 435 456 512 509 524 495 41 Stampings.screw machine products,and bolts...... 249 278 283 288 313 348 345 360 339 42 Other fabricated metal products....... .......... 336 373 379 392 419 470 465 481 458 43 Engines and turbines......................... . 90 84 85 87 90 90 89 93 88 44 Farm machinery and equipment...................... 113 112 120 126 135 146 144 151 138 45 Construction,mining,and oil field machinery..... 145 149 152 163 172 203 201 209 194 See footnotes at end of table 153 Table A-4. Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry and Selected Years and Projected 1970--Continued (In thousands) Selected years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 3 per cent unem ploy ment 1965 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model 46 Materials handling machinery and equipment........ 61 62 66 72 77 80 79 83 78 47 Metalworking machinery and equipment.............. 231 259 267 281 299 336 333 346 323 48 Special industry machinery and equipment.......... 161 171 172 181 190 217 214 225 206 49 General industrial machinery and equipment........ 204 229 234 243 258 277 274 286 265 50 Machine-shop products.............................. 136 167 169 172 184 211 209 215 208 51 Office,computing,and accounting machines.......... 133 159 163 175 197 238 234 263 230 52 Service industry machines.......................... 90 101 102 106 111 110 109 115 105 53 Electrical industrial equipment and apparatus.... 304 350 339 340 365 395 392 410 378 54 Household appliances............................... 148 150 156 161 167 182 179 192 179 55 Electric lighting and wiring equipment............ 121 143 150 156 167 191 188 195 185 56 Radio,television,and communication equipment..... 400 555 549 532 568 530 523 548 516 57 Electronic components and accessories............. 179 266 262 265 304 325 322 333 318 58 Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.. 97 103 99 94 101 113 112 117 112 59 Motor vehicles and equipment....................... 603 692 741 755 850 788 777 825 762 60 Aircraft and parts................. ................ 784 634 639 604 617 550 550 546 545 61 Other transportation equipment.................... 217 217 229 246 272 322 318 334 309 62 Scientific and controlling instruments............ 221 246 250 250 258 277 274 281 271 63 Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment.... 103 112 115 119 127 140 138 142 138 64 Miscellaneous manufacturing........................ 369 390 387 398 424 461 455 469 453 65 Transportation and warehousing.................... 2,506 2,472 2,470 2,486 2,530 2,600 2,573 2,580 2,563 66 Communications;except broadcasting..... .......... 773 729 725 745 773 740 730 716 733 67 Radio and television broadcasting................. 87 95 99 103 108 121 119 119 119 68 Electric,gas,water,and sanitary services.......... 610 610 610 614 620 645 638 626 645 69 Wholesale and retail trade......................... 10,750 11,566 11,778 12,132 12,588 14,195 14,037 14,237 13,898 2,013 2,270 2,334 2,406 2,468 2,864 2,828 2,704 2,833 492 518 543 558 574 650 631 597 632 70 Finance and insurance.............................. 71 Real estate and rental.......... . 72 Hotels{personal and repair services,except auto... 1,672 1,787 1,804 1,878 1,951 2,168 2,119 2,011 2,121 73 74 Business services and research and development.... 2,226 1,127 1,532 1,597 1,664 1,730 2,258 2,233 2,230 75 Automobile repair and services.................... 257 321 288 302 314 360 354 339 354 76 Amusements.... ..................................... 542 583 591 615 639 750 741 698 744 3,051 3,554 3,757 3,912 4,065 5,349 5,268 4,908 5,600 77 Medical.educational and nonprofit organizations... 78 Government enterprises, Federal...... ............ 79 Government enterprises, State and local.......... 84 Government, total................................... 86 See NOTE. See NOTE. 7,839 8,890 9,225 9,595 10,046 12,683 12,262 12,236 12,411 Federal........................................... 2,191 2,340 2,358 2,348 2,379 2,524 2,510 2,497 2,510 State and local................................... 5,648 6,550 6,868 7,248 7,667 10,159 9,752 9,739 9,901 Private households........................... ...... 2,550 2,694 2,656 2,683 2,604 3,000 2,950 2,950 2,950 1/ Agricultural employment includes self-employed and unpaid family workers, as well as wage and salary employees. NOTE: ISP=interindustry sales and purchases. ISP 78 and 79 are included in ISP 84. Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. 154 Table A-5. Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970 (Percent distribution) Selected years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 1965 3 percent unem ploy ment 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1,2 Agriculture— ^ .................................. . 3 Forestry and fishery products...................... 4 Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services........ 9.78 .10 .20 8.19 .10 .19 7.70 .10 .20 7.26 .10 .20 6.78 .10 .20 5.38 5.46 5.46 .09 .09 .09 5.46 .09 .19 .19 .19 .19 5 Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.................... .06 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 6 Nonferrous metal ores mining....................... .09 .09 .08 .08 .08 .07 .07 .07 .07 7 Coal mining......................................... .36 .24 .23 .23 .21 .16 .16 .16 .16 8 Crude petroleum and natural ga s................... .55 .47 .45 .44 .42 .32 .32 .32 .32 9,10 Nonmetallic mining and quarrying.................. .19 .19 .18 .18 .18 .19 .19 .19 .19 11,12 Construction........................................ 4.65 4.58 4.61 4.66 4.75 4.88 4.91 5.03 4.73 13 Ordnance and accessories........... ................ .24 .42 .41 14 Food and kindred products.......................... 2.97 2.78 2.73 .38 2.66 .35 .31 .31 .32 .31 2.57 2.23 2.25 2.23 2.24 15 Tobacco manufactures................................ .16 .14 .14 .14 .12 .11 .11 .11 .11 16 Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills.... 1.02 .91 .88 .87 .85 .74 .75 .75 .75 17 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings... 18 Apparel.............................................. 19 Miscellaneous fabricated textile products......... 20,21 Lumber and wood products........................... 22 Household furniture.... ................. .......... .17 .16 .16 2.10 .21 2.11 2.10 .23 .23 1.03 .93 .92 .16 .16 .13 .13 2.10 2.00 2.00 .23 .24 .23 .23 .24 .24 .92 .90 .76 .76 .78 .75 2.08 .14 1.99 .13 2.00 .44 .43 .43 .45 .46 .47 .48 .51 .47 23 Other furniture and fixtures...................... .17 .17 .17 .17 .17 .20 24 Paper and allied products.except containers...... .67 .68 .67 .66 .64 .65 .20 .66 .21 .66 .65 25 Paperboard containers and boxes...... ............ 26 Printing and publishing....................... . .19 .28 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .31 .30 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.44 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.49 27 Chemicals and selected chemical products..... . .67 .65 .64 .62 .62 .56 .56 .57 .56 28 Plastics and synthetic materials.................. .24 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .30 .30 .29 29 Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations............ .32 .33 .34 .34 .32 .31 .31 .31 .32 30 Paints and allied products......................... .10 .10 .10 .10 .10 .09 .09 .09 .08 31 Petroleum refining and related industries......... .37 .31 .29 .28 .26 .22 .22 .67 .69 .22 .66 32 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.... . .58 .64 .65 .66 .69 .22 .66 33 Leather tanning and industrial leather products... .07 .06 .05 .05 .05 .04 .04 .04 .04 34 Footwear and other leather products............... .53 .51 .49 .48 .47 .43 .43 .43 .43 .24 35 Glass and glass products.... ...................... .24 .25 .25 .25 .25 .24 .24 .24 36 Stone and clay products......... ......... ........ .70 .69 .69 .69 .67 .63 .63 .65 37 Primary iron and steel manufacturing.......... . 1.42 1.32 1.31 1.37 1.38 1.24 1.25 1.29 .62 1.22 38 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing........... .51 .51 .51 .51 .54 .51 .52 .53 .51 39 Metal containers............................ . .12 .11 .11 .11 Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products.... .70 .64 .65 .67 .10 .68 .10 .68 .10 40 .11 .66 .10 .66 41 Stampings.screw machine products and bolts........ .42 .44 .44 .44 .46 .46 .46 .48 .45 42 Other fabricated metal products................... .56 .59 .59 .60 .62 .62 .62 .64 .61 43 Engines and turbines......... .................. . .15 .13 .13 .13 .13 .12 .12 44 Farm machinery and equipment............ .......... .19 .18 .19 .19 .20 .19 .19 .12 .20 .18 45 Construction,mining,and oil field machinery....... .24 .24 .24 .25 .25 .27 .27 .28 .26 See footnotes at end of table. .70 .12 155 Table A-5. Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970— Continued (Percent distribution) Selected years Industry number and title 1958 1962 1963 Projected 1970 1964 1965 3 percent unem ploy ment 4 percent unemployment Basic model High dur ables High ser vices Basic model 46 Materials handling machinery and equipment........ .10 .10 .10 .11 .11 .11 .11 .11 47 Metalworking machinery and equipment.............. .39 .41 .42 .43 .44 .44 .45 .46 .43 48 Special industry machinery and equipment.......... .27 .27 .27 .28 .28 .29 .29 .30 .28 49 General industrial machinery and equipment........ .34 .36 .36 .37 .38 .37 .37 .38 .35 50 Machine-shop products.............................. .23 .26 .26 .26 .27 .28 .28 .29 .28 .u 51 Office,computing,and accounting machines.......... .22 .25 .25 .27 .29 .31 .31 .35 .31 52 Service industry machines.... ...... ............... .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .15 .15 .15 .14 53 Electric industrial equipment and apparatus...... .51 .55 .53 .52 .54 .52 .52 .55 .51 54 Household appliances............................... .25 .24 .24 .25 .25 .24 .24 .26 .24 55 Electric lighting and wiring equipment............ .20 .23 .23 .24 .25 .25 .25 .26 .25 56 Radio,television,and communication equipment..... .67 .88 .86 .81 .84 .70 .70 .73 .69 57 Electronic components and accessories...... . .30 .42 .41 .40 .45 .43 .43 .45 .43 58 Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.. .16 .16 .15 .14 .15 .15 .15 .16 .15 1.10 1.02 59 Motor vehicles and equipment.................. . 1.01 1.09 1.15 1.15 1.26 1.04 1.04 60 Aircraft and parts........................... . 1.31 1.00 1.00 .92 .91 .73 .74 .73 .73 61 Other transportation equipment.................... .36 .34 .36 .38 .40 .42 .43 .45 .41 62 Scientific and controlling equipment.............. .37 .39 .39 .38 .38 .37 .37 .38 .36 63 Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment.... .17 .18 .18 .18 .19 .18 .18 .19 .18 64 Miscellaneous manufacturing....................... .62 .62 .60 .61 .63 .61 .61 .63 .61 65 Transportation and warehousing.................. . 4.19 3.90 3.85 3.79 3.74 3.43 3.45 3.46 3.43 66 Communications;except broadcasting............... . 1.29 1.15 1.13 1.14 1.14 .98 .98 .96 .98 67 Radio and television broadcasting................. .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 .16 68 Electric,gas .water and sanitary services.......... 1.02 .96 .95 .94 .92 .85 .85 .84 69 Wholesale and retail trade..... ........... ....... 17.99 18.24 18.34 18.49 18.61 18.72 18.80 19.07 18.61 3.78 3.79 3.62 3.79 70 Finance and insurance........................... 3.37 3.58 3.64 3.67 3.65 71 Real estate and rental............................. .82 .82 .85 .85 .85 72 Hotelsjpersonal and repair services.except auto... 2.80 2.82 2.81 2.86 73, 74 Business services and research and development.... .86 .85 .80 .85 2.89 .86 2.86 2.84 2.69 2.84 2.98 1.89 2.42 2.49 2.54 2.56 2.98 2.99 2.99 75 Automobile repair and services............ . .43 .51 .45 .46 .46 .47 .47 .45 .47 76 Am u s e m e n t s .91 .92 .92 .94 .94 .99 .99 .93 1.00 5.11 5.61 5.85 5.96 7.05 7.05 6.57 7.50 16.62 6.01 77 Medical.educational and nonprofit organizations... 78 Government enterprises, Federal....... . 79 Government enterprises, State and local.......... 84 Government, total........................... ....... 13.12 14.02 14.37 14.63 14.86 16.73 16.42 16.39 Federal............................ ...... ........ 3.67 3.69 3.67 3.58 3.52 3.33 3.36 3.34 3.36 State and local.................................. 9.45 10.33 10.70 11.05 11.34 13.40 13.06 13.04 13.26 4.27 4.25 4.14 4.09 3.85 3.96 3.95 3.95 3.95 86 Private households............................ See NOTE. See TOTE. 1/ Agricultural employment includes self-employed and unpaid family workers, as well as wage and salary employees. NOTE: ISP=interindustry sales and purchases. ISP 78 and 79 are included in ISP 84. Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1966 0 - 2 3 9 - 8 7 7