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L 3l . 3 / 5”3 6,
B U L L E T IN N O . 1536
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATE
COLLEGE LIBRARY
U. S. DEPOSITORY COPY
DEC 2 8 1966
PROiECTIONS 1970
Interindustry Relationships
Potential Demand
Employment
J. S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR ,W. Willard Wirtz, Secretary - bureau
5 ^
of labor statistics ,
Arthur m . Ross, commissioner
BULLETIN NO. 1536
PROJECTIONS 1970
Interindustry Relationships
Potential Demand
Employment
U. S. D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR
W. Wi l l ard W i r t z , S e c r e t a r y
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, Arthur M. Ross, Commissioner
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 2 0 4 0 2 - Price $ 1 .00
PREFACE
This bulletin provides projections to 1970 of potential demand,
interindustry relationships, and employment under alternative
assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth. It represents a
report on a major phase of the work of the Interagency Growth Study
Project.
This project was started several years ago by the U.S. Department
of Labor, in cooperation with other Government agencies and private
research organizations. It represents an effort to develop a more
comprehensive and integrated framework than had previously been avail
able for analyzing the implications of long-term economic growth for a
number of problem areas, particularly problems of manpower utilization.
Guidance for the research program is provided by an interagency
coordinating committee, consisting of representatives from the U. S.
Departments of Labor and Commerce, the Bureau of the Budget, and the
Council of Economic Advisers. The chairman of the corranittee is the
representative of the Council of Economic Advisers.
The actual work on the projections is shared by a number of
Government agencies, private research organizations, and universities.
The central project staff is located in the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS).
The growth project research program uses the input-output tables
prepared by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce, as the basic analytical tool for the evaluation of alternative
economic policies and projections. This program has been coordinated
with related work on technological and manpower outlook of the Produc
tivity and Manpower Offices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.*
*For further information about the related work, see: (1) Techno
logical Trends in Major American Industries (BLS Bulletin 1474, 1966);
and (2) "America’s Industrial and Occupational Manpower Requirements,
1965-1975," prepared for the National Commission on Technology, Auto
mation, and Economic Progress, by the BLS, and published in The Outlook
for Technological Change and Employment, appendix volume I, February
1966, to the Commission’s report, Technology and the American Economy
(1966), pp. 3-187.
iii
This bulletin was prepared in the Division of Economic Growth,
under the general supervision of Jack Alterman, Director of Economic
Growth Studies. Ronald E. Kutscher, with major assistance by Eva E.
Jacobs, was responsible for coordinating the various elements of the
projections and for direct supervision of the projections in a number
of specific areas. Individual members of the staff had primary respon
sibility for specific areas as follows: Eva E. Jacobs and Carolyn A.
Jackson, potential gross national product (GNP), 1970 and review of
the productivity projections prepared by the Division of Productivity
Measurement; Donald P. Eldridge, consumer expenditures; Richard P.
Oliver, Federal Government defense expenditures; Myrtle G. Nelson,
Federal Government nondefense expenditures; Arlene K. Shapiro, capital
flow projections and producer durable equipment; Joseph C. Wakefield,
construction, public and private, and State and local government expend
itures; Daniel Roxon, exports and imports; William I. Karr, projections
of input-output coefficients.
The projections are based also on the major research contributions
of other units within the Bureau of Labor Statistics, other Government
agencies, private research organizations, universities, and individuals.
The contributors include various offices of the BLS (Productivity,
Technology and Growth; and Manpower and Employment Statistics); U. S.
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; U.S. Department
of Agriculture; U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines; Harvard
Economic Research Project, Harvard University; National Planning Asso
ciation; George Washington University; Council of State Governments;
and Jack Faucett Associates (Silver Spring, Maryland).
The use of the material developed by others will be noted at the
appropriate places in the bulletin. In addition to providing materials
for this publication, the staff of the Office of Business Economics
assisted in many aspects of the research program. Comments on an
earlier draft by members of the Business and Labor Research Advisory
Councils of BLS, and individuals in private research organizations,
universities, and other Government agencies were helpful in the
preparation of this report. However, BLS assumes responsibility for
the interpretation of the data and the projections.
iv
CONTENTS
Page
Introduction....................................................
1
Summary.........................................................
7
Chapter:
I.
The framework for the projections......................
13
II*
Potential output in 1970...............................
22
III.
Distribution of potential output among major categories
of final demand.......................................
29
IV.
Detailed final demand "bill ofgoods"...................
37
V.
The interindustry employmenttable......................
85
VI.
Patterns of employment, 1970...................
110
Bibliography....................................................
128
Appendix........................................................
132
v
CONTENTS--Continued
Page
Tables:
Labor force, employment, annual hours and gross national product:
II-l. Actual 1957 and 1965 and potential 1970...............
Gross national product:
III-l. Major components, selected years and projected 1970....
III-2. Changes by major component, selected periods and
projected 1965-70....................................
Industry numbering system:
IV-1. 1958 input-output study................................
Industrial composition of purchases, 1958, 1962, and
projected 1970. 1958 dollars:
IV-2.
Federal Government...................................
IV-3. Federal Government, percent distribution..............
IV-4. State and local government.............................
IV-5. State and local government, percent distribution.......
IV-6. Private fixed capital investment.......................
IV-7. Private fixed capital investment, percent distribution.
IV-8.
Gross private domestic investment....................
IV-9.
Personal consumption expenditures....................
Personal consumption expenditures:
IV-10. Major type, selected years and projected 1970.........
Industrial composition of purchases, 1958, 1962, and
projected 1970. 1958 dollars:
IV-11. Personal consumption expenditures, percent
distribution..........................................
IV-12. Net exports...........................................
IV-13. Total final demand....................................
IV-14. Total final demand, percent distribution..............
IV- 15. Total final demand,by major industry group...........
Index of coefficient change:
V- l. 1958-70...............................................
Total employment:
V- 2.
Primary and indirect per billion dollars delivery to
final demand, 1970. Summary table...................
Civilian employment:
VI- 1. Major industry groups, selected years and
projected 1970.......................................
VI-2. Change by major industry groups, selected periods
and projected 1970...................................
VI-3.
ISP industry, selected years and projected 1970.......
VI-4. ISP industry, selected years and projected 1970,
percent distribution.................................
VI-5.
ISP industry, 1965-70, average annual rate of change...
vi
28
35
36
58
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
76
78
80
82
84
103
105
120
121
122
124
126
CONTENTS--Continued
Page
Appendix tables:
A-l.
A-2.
Gross national product, bymajorcomponent, 1950-65...
Personal consumption expenditure, by major type,
1950-65.............................................
A-3.
Total employment (primary and indirect) per billion
dollars delivery to final demand, 1970..............
Wage and salary employment by ISP:
A-4.
Selected years andprojected 1970.....................
A-5.
Selected years and projected 1970, percent
distribution........................................
vii
132
134
136
152
154
Projections of Potential Demand,
Interindustry Relationships, and Employment, 1970
INTRODUCTION
This study provides projections of industry employment requirements
in 1970 under alternative assumptions about the rate and pattern of
growth. The employment projections are essential to the development of
estimates of occupational requirements, information that is needed to
implement the U.S. Department of Labor's responsibilities in the areas
of occupational guidance and longer run training programs.
The 1970 Projections
The projections contained in this report are not forecasts. They
provide detailed and consistent projections of what the economy may look
like in 1970. These projections are dependent on assumptions about unem
ployment rates, growth in productivity, the mix of consumption, invest
ment, government expenditures, and other key economic variables. A
crucial assumption underlying the projections is that the Viet Nam situ
ation will have been resolved by 1970 and defense expenditures reduced
to a more normal level.
The bulletin contains four sets of projections. The major differ
ences among these projections result from use of alternative assumptions
about unemployment (4 and 3 percent of the civilian labor force) and
about the composition of final demand (i.e., consumption, investment,
government expenditures for goods and services, and net exports).
The various sets of projections are designed to evaluate, among
other things, the extent to which the composition of employment may be
affected by alternative assumptions regarding the continuation of the
unusually high rates of increase in expenditures for consumer durables
and for business investment in plant and equipment during the past few
years.
The basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models assume that, by 1970,
expenditures for consumer and producer durable goods will return to a
pattern in line with postwar relationships. An alternative (high
durables) to the basic 4-percent unemployment model assumes that the
increase in expenditures for durable goods would continue at high rates.
Although this rate of increase for durable goods is lower than in the
preceding few years, it would still be higher than the rate that gener
ally prevailed during the postwar period. An additional alternative
(high services) to the 4-percent unemployment model assumes that, due to
increased productivity of capital, capital expenditures will continue to
increase, but at a lower rate than the increase in real output, with the
result that capital expenditures for nonresidential plant and equipment
will fall as a proportion of gross national product. It also assumes
1
2
that the anticipated increases in residential construction postulated in
the basic models will be delayed somewhat and will increase only moder
ately by 1970. The slower increase in private domestic investment in
the high services model is assumed to be offset by larger increases in
consumer expenditures, primarily in consumer services, and increased
State and local government expenditures for education and health func
tions .
The projections are developed in a series of interrelated stages in
which the starting point is the projection of potential output in 1970,
based on estimated growth in the labor force, alternative assumptions
regarding the unemployment rate, and projections of labor productivity
and hours of work.
The distribution of total employment among the various industries
in the economy is, in turn, based on projections of how potential output
may be distributed among the various categories and detailed components
of final demand, i.e., consumption, investment, government expenditures
for goods and services, and net exports. Estimates of final demand for
detailed items, such as food, clothing, automobiles, medical care,
machine tools, aircraft, etc., are converted into industry employment
requirements through the use of an interindustry employment table. An
interindustry employment table shows how much direct and indirect employ
ment would be required in each industry to meet the demand for final
goods and services, including employment in the supporting industries
which provide the raw materials, parts, components, fuel, transportation
and distribution services embodied in the end products and services.
An interindustry employment table is derived from an input-output
table which shows the direct and indirect impact of changes in one part
of the economy on the rest of the economy. The projections developed in
this study use input-output tables prepared by the Office of Business
Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, as the framework for the
estimates.
Although the projections developed in this study represent a major
phase of the work of the Interagency Growth Study Project, they should
be considered as part of a broader framework of growth studies. To put
the present bulletin in perspective, it may be useful to outline some of
the major elements involved in the study of the complex process of eco
nomic growth and indicate some of the areas which need additional work.
Economic Growth Studies in Perspective
The study of economic growth includes (though neither exhaustively
nor exclusively) the following elements:
1.
The supply side (economic potential). Potential gross national
product (GNP) is defined as that GNP which could be produced by
a fully employed labor force. In addition to full employment,
3
potential GNP depends, in the first instance, upon (a) the size
of the labor force, (b) the average hours worked per year, and
(c) the average output per man-hour. The growth in potential
GNP, therefore, depends upon the growth in these separate com
ponents .
A number of complicated relationships is basic to each of these.
For example, the rate of growth of the labor force depends not
only upon the rate of growth of the working-age population, but
also upon changes in labor force participation; these, in turn,
are subject to a number of influences, such as the age-sex mix of
the working-age population, the unemployment rate, the sectoral
composition of output, sociological and institutional factors.
Similarly, changes in the workweek depend upon such factors as
changes in the unemployment rate and the speed of adjustment
of employment to changes in output. Determination of the rate
of growth of output per man-hour is perhaps the most complex of
all. It depends upon (a) the change in the skills of the labor
force as determined by educational achievement, manpower train
ing, etc., (b) changes in the size and age distribution of the
capital stock, (c) the rate of utilization of capacity, (d) the
distribution of output among industries, (e) the state of tech
nology, and many other factors.
2.
The demand side. It is true that the growth of potential GNP
is itself sufficient to determine the rate of growth in output
along a full-employment path. However, it is nevertheless
generally believed that there exists an interaction between
actual and potential growth. It is likely that the rate of
growth of potential GNP is itself retarded by persistent under
utilization of productive resources. Idle resources--both
manpower and plant capacity--tend to dampen the incentive to
invest. Low rates of investment, in turn, retard the rate of
growth of potential GNP.
3.
The pattern of final demand. For any given level of national
output, the following factors determine the pattern of final
demand:
a.
There is first the broad distribution of final demand among
the general categories of consumer expenditures for goods
and services, government purchases, business investment,
and net exports. This distribution, in turn, depends upon
(1) the allocation of personal income between consumption
and savings, (2) the profitability of investment, as deter
mined by the state of technology, the utilization of exist
ing capacity, rate of growth, etc., and (3) government
policy. Government policy affects the above distribution
through the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on
4
private investment and consumption decisions, and through
direct government investment to fulfill social objectives
and to meet defense requirements. Net exports depend on
relative prices here and abroad, need for critical materi
als, constraints affecting the balance of payments, etc.
b.
Given aggregate consumer demand, the pattern of demand for
individual goods and services depends upon consumption
patterns of individuals and families and the distribution
of income and change in income among individuals and fami
lies, relative prices, etc.
c.
The distribution of aggregate investment demand among types
of equipment and buildings depends upon a host of factors
such as the relative profitability of various industries;
the introduction of technological developments; relative
growth rates of industries; and the types of equipment and
structures used by different industries.
4.
The pattern of intermediate demand. Given any pattern of final
demand, it is possible to derive the interindustry structure of
output--including both final and intermediate goods--using the
input-output tables. These tables show the sales and purchases
among all the industries in the economy and can be used to show
the direct and indirect impact of changes in demand in one part
of the economy on the rest of the economy.
5.
The impact of the pattern of final and intermediate demand.
Projected changes in the interindustry structure of output, as
determined by the pattern of final and intermediate demand,
have a number of important implications for the growth process
and for the formulation of economic policy:
a.
In the first place, the rate of growth of productivity for
the entire economy is affected by the changing distribution
of output among sectors and industries. For example, the
secular decline in the farm sector, relative to the nonfarm
sector, has in the past added to the rate of growth of total
private productivity because the level of output per man
hour in the farm sector is approximately half the level in
the nonfarm sector. Conversely, the shift in the distribu
tion of output from the manufacturing sector to the service
sector and to government tends to lower the rate of growth
of productivity.
b.
The distribution of output between investment goods and con
sumer goods has important implications for the rate of growth
of potential GNP.
5
6.
c.
The pattern of final and intermediate demand also has
important implications for the distribution of payments to
labor, property, and government, and among income groups.
d.
The pattern of employment, and therefore the occupational
requirements, of the future depends upon the interindustry
structure of output.
The role of government policy in the growth process. A crucial
determinant of the rate of growth of GNP and of the changing
pattern of output is government policy, for these reasons:
a.
The role of fiscal policy in equating aggregate supply and
demand at full employment is essential to the growth
process.
b.
Government policies on investment significantly affect eco
nomic growth, since investment in plant and equipment is
the process by which new productive capacity is brought
about, and by which productivity of labor is enhanced.
c.
Finally, the rate of growth of labor productivity is closely
related to educational expenditures and to manpower training
programs. Conversely, the form and direction which training
and educational programs should take depends upon the pro
jection of the pattern of final and intermediate demand,
industry employment, and occupational patterns.
The present study is based on extensive research and analysis cover
ing a number of areas included in the foregoing discussion. These relate
primarily to the projection of potential output, the distribution of out
put among the major components and detailed items of final demand, and
the conversion of demand into employment requirements through the use of
the input-output approach. Other areas of research have been sponsored
by the Interagency Growth Study Project, but are not included in this
bulletin. Moreover, some of the areas have been covered only partially
or not at all.
Finally, as part of the continuing program of growth studies, the
projections contained in this bulletin will be revised and extended as
new information, revisions in the historical data, and the results of
studies sponsored by the Growth Project become available. This should
also make it possible to explore the implications for the economy of a
broader range of assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth.
As part of an evolving research program, the various specialized
studies of economic growth will need to be integrated into a broader
and consistent framework in which additional elements are taken into
6
account. For example, more attention will have to be given to the rela
tionship between:
(1)
changes in technical input-output relationships and changes
in labor and capital productivity and occupational patterns,
(2)
the rate of investment and the rate of growth of potential
GNP,
(3)
changes in skills and education of the labor force and growth
in labor productivity,
(4)
government fiscal and monetary policies and the rate of growth
of GNP and its distribution,
(5)
government policies and programs and projected government and
private employment, and
(6)
the pattern of demand, employment, and the distribution of
income among factor shares and among income groups.
SUMMARY
A major objective of this study is to develop projections of the
industrial distribution of employment in 1970 under alternative assump
tions regarding rates and patterns of growth.
The projections, developed in a series of interrelated stages, use
the latest input-output tables prepared by the U.S. Department of Com
merce as the framework for the estimates. These tables make it possible
to show the direct and indirect impact of changes in demand in one part
of the economy on all parts of the economy, including itself. In this
study, projections of input-output relationships, along with projections
of hours of work and industry productivity, are used to link detailed
projections of demand for goods and services to employment requirements
by industry. Thus, the projected structure of demand--the demand of
individuals, business, and government, and the net demand of foreign
purchasers of the products of American industry--are converted, by appli
cation of appropriate relationships, into projections of direct and in
direct manpower requirements of the specific industries.
A broad range of projections can be developed, based on alternative
assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth. These preliminary
efforts, however, present four sets of estimates--all based on the
assumption of high levels of employment and a stable economic growth
rate. The four models are (a) a 4-percent unemployment model, (b) a 3percent unemployment model, (c) a high durables model, and (d) a high
services model. The latter two are variations of the basic 4-percent
unemployment model.
The 4-percent unemployment model assumes that by 1970, the economy
will continue to expand sufficiently to maintain the unemployment rate
at 4 percent of the civilian labor force. This means that the number of
new jobs will be sufficient to accomodate the anticipated growth in the
labor force and to offset gains in productivity. The 3-percent unemploy
ment model assumes that the unemployment rate is reduced to 3 percent
and maintained at that rate through 1970. It assumes further expansion
in programs designed to provide training and retraining, worker experi
ence, labor mobility, and employment in public service projects. Most
of the increased employment, however, is expected to be in the private
sector of the economy. The patterns of final demand in both the basic
4- and 3-percent models are similar.
The other two models (high durables and high services) assume a
4-percent unemployment rate. They are designed to evaluate the implica
tions of alternative assumptions regarding one of the major uncertainties
7
8
in the projections of final demand--the outlook for consumer durable
expenditures and private investment in plant and equipment, given their
unusually high rates of increase during the past 2 years.
Projected Growth Rates and Potential GNP
Between 1965 and 1970, the labor force is expected to grow at a
much more rapid pace than over most of the postwar years--almost 2 per
cent a year, compared with the postwar average increase of 1.3 percent.
The "normal" increase in the labor force would account for 1.7 percent a
year; an additional 0.2 percent a year may be anticipated because the
labor force participation rates at the present time are below the trend
rates.
Given the anticipated acceleration in the growth of the labor force
and assuming increases in productivity of 3.2 percent a year and modest
declines in hours of work, GNP would have to grow by about 4.3 percent a
year between 1965 and 1970 to provide jobs for additional workers and to
maintain the unemployment rate at 4 percent.
It would take a growth rate of about 4.5 percent a year for the re
mainder of the decade to reduce the unemployment rate to 3 percent. The
4.5-percent growth rate is lower than the 5.5-percent annual average in
crease during the past 2 years, but it is still much higher than the
3.7-percent annual growth rate experienced over the entire period since
1947. This rate of growth would imply an increase of almost 25 percent
in the Nation's real output by 1970.
Potential GNP in 1970 would be about $835 or $845 billion (in 1965
prices),_1/ depending on the unemployment assumption.
The 4.3- to 4.5-percent annual increases in GNP are averages for
the remainder of the decade. Part of the increase is related to the re
duction in the unemployment rate, thus the projections imply a somewhat
higher growth rate until the 4- or 3-percent unemployment rate has been
achieved. Once achieved, the continuing growth rate would be closer to
4 percent. This is still higher than the postwar average and provides
some indication of the task involved if the national policy of maintain
ing full employment is to be realized. If it is assumed that the remain
der of the decade will see an acceleration in the overall rate of produc
tivity, compared with the longer run trend, even higher rates of growth
required to achieve and maintain full employment are implied.
1/ $750 and $760 billion, respectively, in 1958 dollars.
9
Projected Industry Employment Requirements
In order to achieve an overall unemployment rate of 4 percent by
1970, total civilian employment would have to be about 81.6 million, rep
resenting an addition of about 1.5 million jobs a year for a total of
7.5 million more jobs in 1970 than in 1965.2 / A 3-percent unemployment
rate for 1970 would require an addition of about 1.7 million jobs a year
or a total of 8.5 million, bringing total civilian employment to 82.8
million in 1970. This represents an increase in employment of about 1.9
percent a year for a 4 -percent unemployment rate, or about 2.2 percent a
year for a 3-percent unemployment rate. Both the 1.9 and 2.2 rates of
employment increase are substantially higher than the rates for most of
the postwar period. The higher rates of increase are attributable pri
marily to accelerated growth in the labor force as the children born
during the early post-World War II years reach working age. Adding to
the increase in employment is the assumed reduction in the unemployment
rate from the 4.6-percent average in 1965 to 4 or 3 percent by 1970.
Within the overall employment increases projected to 1970, the pro
jections for individual industries show highly divergent trends for any
one model, as well as variations among the alternative models. In gen
eral, service industries are expected to show higher gains in employment
than goods-producing industries. This represents a continuation of the
long-run postwar trends, but there are some important modifications.
Among the service industries, the highest annual rate of employment
increase, about 5 percent or more, is projected for State and local gov
ernment. Growth in this sector would be attributable to the continued
expansion of schools, medical care, and other public services for a
growing population, with some stimulus from Federal grants. In contrast,
Federal Government civilian employment is projected to increase only
moderately from the 1965 level.
Many of the Federal Government programs which may be expanded sub
stantially by 1970 involve expenditures which are considered, in the
national income and product accounts, as either transfers of funds to
individuals and nonprofit organizations or grants to State and local gov
ernments. Examples of such programs are aid to education, training and
retraining, and antipoverty programs, Medicare, and area development.
From the viewpoint of demand for final goods and services, expenditures
resulting from these programs appear as purchases of goods and services
by consumers and State and local governments rather than as purchases
2/ The employment estimates cover wage and salary workers on estab
lishment payrolls, self-employed, unpaid family workers, and domestics.
The estimates refer to number of jobs and are, therefore, higher than the
number of persons employed as measured in labor force surveys. This is
due to dual jobholding and statistical differences between the two series.
239-877 0 66-2
-
10
by the Federal Government. A further caution about Federal Government
projections concerns the assumption that there will be no military en
gagement in Viet Nam or elsewhere in 1970.
The projection of employment in personal, business, and private edu
cational and medical services shows the next largest increase--about
2.7 to 4.2 percent a year, depending on the models used. The high rates
of increase would reflect the continuing shift in demand for such serv
ices and the lower than average increases in productivity (as commonly
measured) in the individual industries providing these services.
Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate is projected to
continue to increase at a faster rate than the overall average and to
account for a somewhat larger share of total employment in 1970 than in
1965. Under the high durable alternative, however, its share would re
main about the same.
Communications and public utilities are characterized by rapid in
creases in productivity. The result is that, although services provided
by these industries are expected to increase sharply, employment would
remain at about the 1965 level and decline as a proportion of total
employment.
Employment in the trade sector is dependent, to a considerable ex
tent, on activity in the goods-producing areas. The projections of em
ployment in trade vary, depending on the relative importance of goods
production in the various models. Productivity gains in trade are lower
than the average for the total private economy. Consequently, the em
ployment increases (1.6-2.1 percent a year) would be above the rate for
the private economy and about the average for total employment in the
basic model. They are somewhat higher in the high durable alternative
and lower in the high service model. The increase is one of the largest
among the various sectors because the trade sector accounts for such a
large proportion of total employment. In fact, in terms of absolute
numbers, trade and two other major sectors--State and local government
and services (business, professional, private educational and medical,
and personal) accounted for about 45 percent of total employment in 1965
In the aggregate they would be the source of about 72 to 82 percent of
the total employment increase projected.
Total transportation employment has been declining during much of
the postwar period, primarily due to the reduction in railroad employ
ment. Employment has increased within the past few years, largely in
trucking and air transportation. Although productivity gains in trans
portation are above average, the increase in demand is projected to be
sufficient to provide the basis for continued small gains in employment.
The increase, however, would not be enough to arrest the continuing de
cline in the sector's share of total employment.
11
Within the goods-producing sectors, agricultural employment is pro
jected to continue its long-term decline, both in absolute numbers and
as a percentage of the total work force. The decline would be due pri
marily to very high rates of increase in agricultural productivity
(about 5.5 percent a year), with only moderate increases in the demand
for farm products. In line with the long-term shift in the composition
of the agricultural work force, most of the decline is projected to be
among the self-employed and unpaid family workers, with the numbers of
wage and salary employees remaining relatively stable.
Mining employment, until recently, had been declining for many
years. This is attributable largely to substantially better-than-average
gains in productivity and relative declines in the demand for coal--one
of the larger mining industries. Employment in mining is projected to
continue to decline, although at a reduced rate.
Contract construction employment is projected to show the largest
percentage increase of any major goods-producing industry. This would
be due to projected increases in construction activity to meet rising
State and local government needs, increased housing requirements, and
expanding business investment in plants. In addition, productivity
gains in construction (as measured conventionally) are lower than the
average for the economy. The combined effect of these two factors
would be a very substantial increase in construction employment by 1970.
Finally, what are the prospects for increased employment in manu
facturing industries? One of the most important developments in the
economy during the past 2 years has been the dramatic increase in manu
facturing employment--the major source of blue-collar employment--coming
after a period of decline in manufacturing employment and a modest re
covery following the recession of 1961.
Recent increases in factory jobs reflect both expansion in aggre
gate demand and special factors affecting the character of this demand,
notably the very large increases in demand for automobiles and other
consumer durables and the unprecedented growth in capital investment.
Expenditures for consumer and producer durables have increased, on the
average, twice as fast as the increase in real output during the past
few years. A return to more sustainable rates of increase in expendi
tures for these categories of final demand would have obvious implica
tions for employment requirements in manufacturing industries. The
range of projections of manufacturing employment in the alternative
models indicates that there is some prospect for increased growth in
factory jobs of about 0.5 percent a year between 1965 and 1970 even
under the lowest estimate. The high durables set of projections implies
an increase of about 1.2 percent a year.
(The 3-percent unemployment
model, roughly adjusted to reflect a high durable goods alternative,
would show an even higher rate of increase--about 1.5 percent a year.)
12
The projected increase in manufacturing employment represents a
reversal of the 1957-63 experience when manufacturing employment showed
no increase over the period. It should be noted, however, that the pro
jected rate of increase in employment in manufacturing, even at the
upper end of the range of estimates, would still be substantially lower
than that for the economy as a whole. The projections also represent a
slowdown from the more recent gains in manufacturing employment in 1965
and early 1966. The basic models imply even smaller increases in manu
facturing employment between 1965 and 1970. Under all the alternatives,
manufacturing would continue to decline as a proportion of total employ
ment, from 25.9 percent of the total in 1957, to 24.8 percent in 1965
and to 23.1-23.9 percent by 1970.
A major qualification needs to be made regarding these projections.
Expansion 6f defense expenditures, if the Viet Nam buildup continues,
will involve increased employment in defense oriented manufacturing in
dustries and their supplying industries. The projections developed by
BLS assume that by 1970, the Viet Nam conflict will have been resolved
and defense expenditures reduced to a more normal level. During the
period of the buildup, manufacturing employment may exceed the projected
employment in a number of industries.
A resolution of the Viet Nam situation and a return to more sus
tainable rates of increase in the demand for durable goods would imply
substantial reductions in employment in some industries, particularly
defense oriented industries. This still leaves room for growth in em
ployment for a number of industries under the high durables alternative--furniture, paper, printing and publishing, chemicals, computers,
and selected metal fabricating and machinery industries. However, the
projections indicate little increase or even reductions from mid-1966
levels for two of the basic industries--automobiles and steel.
Chapter I*
The Framework for the Projections
By 1970, the labor force is expected to grow to about 86 million
persons, or about 7.5 million more than in 1965. If the economy in 1970
will provide employment for all except 4 or 3 percent of the civilian
labor force, these questions arise:
1.
How might the industrial distribution of employment in 1970
differ from the present distribution?
2.
To what extent do the implied growth rates of employment
among the various industries represent continuation of past
trends or modification of these trends?
3.
More specifically, will there be a return to the experience
of the 1957-63 period, when there was little or no employ
ment increase in manufacturing and construction--the prime
source of blue-collar employment?
4.
To what extent are the projected results affected by dif
ferent assumptions regarding continuation of the recent
sharp increases in expenditures for consumer and invest
ment durable goods?
This report attempts to provide some tentative answers to these and
related questions. It does this by developing detailed projections of
the demand for goods and services, under various assumptions regarding
unemployment rates, potential output, and patterns of expenditures in
1970. The report then traces the impact of these expenditures on indus
try employment, based on interindustry (input-output) relationships
projected to 1970.
The projections are developed in a series of interrelated stages in
which the first two stages provide the broad framework. The remaining
stages fill in the detailed components of final demand, which are then
converted into industry employment.
The objective of the first stage is the projection of potential
national output (real GNP) in 1970, consistent with low rates of unem
ployment. Estimates of potential real output are based on separate
projections of the labor force, employment, hours of work, and produc
tivity (output per man-hour).
The second stage is concerned with how the real GNP is distributed
among the major categories of final demand. These categories include
personal consumption expenditures, private domestic investment for plant
and equipment, residential construction, net inventory change, Federal
and State and local government expenditures for goods and services, and
net exports.
13
14
The third stage involves the distribution of the major components of
the major components of final demand into detailed items such as food,
clothing, automobiles, television sets, medical care, rent, machine tools
highway construction, etc. If the detailed estimates of consumer demand,
investment demand, government demand, etc., are added together industryby-industry, we obtain the aggregate final demand for the products of
each industry in 1970. For some industries (e.g., apparel, footwear,
household appliances, farm machinery), the 1970 demand of final purchas
ers will represent the major portion of total output of the industry.
For other industries (among them, primary iron and steel manufacturing,
coal mining, lumber and wood products, transportation), the demand of
final purchasers will constitute only a small part of total output. Such
industries produce goods and services primarily for further processing
and intermediate use, not for final demand. Some method is required to
estimate the output of raw materials and intermediate goods and services
required to satisfy the demand for end products and services.
Final demand for passenger cars, for example, implies a demand for
materials such as steel, aluminum, glass, tires, upholstery, and related
transportation and distributive services. Similarly, demand for apparel
implies output requirements from the textile industry. The textile indus
try, in turn, generates demand for cotton and wool from the agricultural
sector of the economy and synthetic materials from the chemicals sector.
Given sufficient information on the material and service require
ments for each of the different final products, it would be possible to
derive the direct and indirect output requirements implied by a given
level of demand for final goods and services. The basis for such compu
tations is provided by a study of interindustry (input-output) relation
ships.
There is a long history of work in the United States and in other
countries on input-output tables and analyses. The results of this work
are not nearly as well known as the national income and product accounts
and their related analyses. For readers who are not familiar with inputoutput analysis, it may be useful, therefore, to indicate briefly what
it is and how it may be used to bridge the gap between demand for end
products and the direct and indirect industry output required to produce
these products; including output at the earlier stages of production,
transportation, and distribution.
The development of the input-output tool of economic analysis and
the actual construction of the first input-output tables were the work
of Professor Wassily Leontief of Harvard University. Recognizing the
potential of using input-output tables as a tool for manpower analysis,
staff of BLS, under the guidance of W. Duane Evans, worked with
15
Professor Leontief 3/ to develop an input-output table for 1939. This
subsequently was used as a framework for analyzing patterns of industry
employment, production, and industrial capacity in the post-World War II
economy.
That major study, "Full Employment Patterns, 1950," prepared by
W. Duane Evans, Marvin Hoffenberg, and Jerome Cornfield, was published
in 1947 in the February and March issues of the Monthly Labor Review.
In subsequent years, the Bureau developed a detailed input-output table
for 1947.4/ Although major research in this area was sharply curtailed
in 1953, the Bureau has continued to use this approach in its studies of
direct and indirect employment generated by various types of construc
tion and also in its studies of the employment impact of foreign trade.5/
In 1960, work on a new input-output table was started, based on the
voluminous Censuses of Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade for the year 1958
The work on the new table was centered in the Office of Business Econom
ics to ensure that it would be developed as part of an integrated set of
GNP, national income, and input-output accounts. This effort resulted
in the development of a new input-output table and revisions in the GNP
and national income estimates so as to be consistent, both conceptually
and statistically, with the input-output table for 1958. The results of
this work were published in 1964 and 1965. 6/
Wassily Leontief, The Structure of the American Economy, 19191939 (Oxford University Press, New York), Second Edition, 1951.
4/ W. Duane Evans and Marvin Hoffenberg, "The Interindustry Rela
tions Study for 1947," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1952,
pp. 97-142; also, National Bureau of Economic Research, Input-Output
Analysis: An Appraisal, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 18 (New York,
1955).
5J Claiborne M. Ball, "Employment Effects of Construction Expendi
tures," Monthly Labor Review, February 1965, pp. 154-158; also, Eva E.
Jacobs and Ronald E. Kutscher, Domestic Employment Attributable to U.S,
Exports, 1960 (BLS, January 1962), summarized in Monthly Labor Review,
March 1962, pp. 277-279; and The Relationship Between Imports and
Employment (BLS, April 1962), summarized in Monthly Labor Review, July
1962, pp. 771-773.
6/ Morris R. Goldman, Martin L. Marimont, and Beatrice N. Vaccara,
"The Interindustry Structure of the United States, A Report on the 1958
Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business, November 1964, pp. 10-29
Also, National Economics Division staff, "The Transactions Table of the
1958 Input-Output Study and Revised Direct and Total Requirements Data,"
Survey of Current Business, September 1965, pp. 35-56. The revised and
benchmarked national income and product estimates consistent with the
1958 input-output table are described in an article by staff of the
Office of Business Economics, "The National Income and Product Accounts
of the United States, Revised Estimates, 1929-1964," Survey of Current
Business, August 1965, pp. 6-56.
16
In anticipation of the new table of interindustry relationships,
the Interagency Growth Study Project started work several years ago on
the use of the input-output and related accounts as the framework for
developing projections of the economy in considerable industry detail
under alternative assumptions regarding rates and patterns of growth.
What is an input-output table and how does it provide the basis for
converting estimates of final demand into impact on industry output and
employment?
An input-output transactions table is like a giant checkerboard, in
that every entry in the table can be read two ways. Reading across the
rows shows what each industry sells to every industry in the economy,
including itself, as well as to final demand, i.e., consumption invest
ment, government expenditures, and net exports. Reading down the
columns of the input-output table shows what each industry buys from
every industry, including itself, in order to produce its own output.
The table also shows, at the bottom of the columns, the value added 7/
by the industry. The sum of the individual purchases from other indus
tries and itself, plus the "value added" equals the value of production.
It is the information in the columns on purchases of specific materials,
parts, fuels, business services, etc., which is used as the basis for
deriving the input-output ratios.
An input-output transactions table, when converted into ratio form,
shows, for example, how much the automobile industry must buy from the
steel, aluminum, glass, textile, rubber, plastics, transportation and
trade industries in order to produce a dollar's worth of output. If we
are interested in determining what effect increased automobile demand
would have, not only on the automobile industry but on all its supply
ing industries, the input-output ratios or direct "coefficient" can be
used to measure the impact on all the immediate supplying industries.
Each of these industries, however, has its own supplying industries.
The steel industry, for example, needs coal and iron ore to make steel.
The coal and iron ore industries, in turn, need fuel to run the powerful
machines used in mining and repair parts for equipment. By linking all
the input-output coefficients together in a consistent and integrated
set of relationships, it becomes possible to trace the impact of the
initial demand for automobiles on each industry back along the produc
tion process. This covers raw materials, parts, components, fuels, and
transportation and distributive services which are ultimately involved
in making the final product--the automobile.
7/ "Value added" consists of labor compensation, proprietors'
income, profits, interest, depreciation, and indirect business taxes.
17
It is the table of direct and indirect interindustry relationships
(table 3 of the 1958 Interindustry Study) which is used as the framework
for exploring the implications of alternative assumptions regarding
rates and patterns of growth on the industrial composition of employment
in 1970. The concepts, special definitions, and classification system
of the input-output table are described in the article on the 1958
input-output study published in the Survey of Current Business
(November 1964).8/ The detailed description need not be repeated here.
There are, however, a few major aspects of the input-output study which
need to be mentioned so that the form and detail in which the projec
tions are developed can be better understood.
Classification system. The 1958 input-output table classifies all
productive activities in the economy into 86 industries. In addition,
there are a number of categories representing final demand and one com
posite category representing value added. Each of the producing indus
tries may cover a broad range of products and services. Most of the
producing industries are combinations of detailed industries, as defined
in the Standard Industrial Classification Manual (SIC), 1957 edition,
prepared by the Bureau of the Busget. The SIC coverage of the 1958
interindustry classification system is given in table IV-1.
The detailed projections of final demand are also classified by pro
ducing industry, in order to be consistent with the classification used
in the input-output table. This means, for example, that a projection
of consumer demand for food is further distributed to show how much of
the total will be from the farm industries (e.g., eggs from industry 1,
fresh fruit and vegetables from industry 2, or bread and meat from the
food processing industry, industry 14). Purchases of "shoes" are dis
tributed between leather shoes made in industry 34 and shoes, boots, and
sneakers made in industry 32, rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Trade. The input-output tables do not trace actual flows to and
from the trade industry. If trade were shown as a buying and selling
activity, the detailed connections would be between trade and the pro
ducing industries, while the consuming industries would purchase most
of their inputs from a single source--trade. To show the links between
producing and consuming industries, or final markets, commodities are
shown as if moving directly from producer to user, bypassing trade.
Therefore, the output of trade is measured only in terms of total
margins; that is, operating expense plus profit.
Valuation of transactions. Input-output relationships can be
expressed, in concept, in either producers* value of purchasers* value.
Specifically, the inputs for making an automobile can be related to the
price received by the producer or to the price paid by the purchaser.
In the input-output tables, the valuation is at producers* value.
8/Morris R. Goldman, Martin L. Marimont, and Beatrice N. Vaccara,
op. cit.
18
Under a system using producers* valuation, the individual inputs
into a consuming industry are valued at producers' prices. The trade
margins and transportation costs associated with all of these inputs
appear as direct purchases from the trade and transportation industries,
respectively. On consequence of using the producers' valuation of trans
actions as the basis for deriving output is that the generated output
includes only requirements at earlier stages of the production process;
it does not cumulate forward to cover the transportation and trade
activity required to move the product of a given industry on to the next
stage of production or to final demand.
In using the input-output table to convert estimates of final demand
(usually stated in purchasers' value) into output requirements, addi
tional information is needed on the margins for transportation and trade.
These values can then be deducted from purchasers value to derive the
appropriate producers' value. A final demand "bill of goods," therefore,
consists of expenditures for specific goods and services, valued at pro
ducers' prices, plus separate purchases from the transportation and
trade industries for the services involved in getting the product from
producer to purchaser. Information on trade and transportation margins
associated with each transaction was developed as part of the 1958
Interindustry Study. This information is used to convert the final
demand expenditures for goods and services, initially estimated in pur
chasers' value, into producers' value.
Secondary product transfers. A final demand "bill of goods" shows
the demand for end items, classified by specific groups of products or
services. However, a product may be made in an industry where it repre
sents the principal proportion of the industry's output; or it may be
made as a "secondary" product in some other industry. For example,
synthetic resins are made in both industry 28, plastics and synthetic
materials and industry 27, chemicals and selected chemical products. In
the input-output table, to avoid the problem of splitting the demand for
synthetic resins between the two producing industries, the interindustry
study adopts the convention of transferring the synthetic resins products
produced in the chemical industry to industry 28. Thus, the latter
industry meets the entire demand for synthetic resins from the total
supply, wherever produced. This approach implies that the "bill of goods"
in the input-output system classifies specific items of final demand by
the industries producing the items as primary products. The primary
industries will, in turn, generate demand for these items in the indus
tries where they are produced as secondary products. In this way, the
output generated by the demand for a product or service covers the
industries where the actual production takes place, both in the "primary"
industry and also in the industry where the product is a secondary
product.
19
This approach of transferring products, wherever made, to a single
industry is based on the assumption of fictitious sales to the primary
producing industry. It is used in a number of areas in the input-output
table. This approach permits the demand for products or services to be
distributed back to the original producing industries in the proportion
that they contributed to the supply.
However, in some industries where secondary production is large and
considerably different from the primary output, such as automobile repair
performed in automobile dealer establishments, the industries involved
are redefined. To accomplish this redefinition, the secondary products
and their associated inputs are taken out of the producing industries
and assigned to the primary industry.
Imports. Imports used for production (intermediate goods and serv
ices) which can be substituted for domestically produced goods and serv
ices are treated in a parallel manner to secondary products. These
imports are assigned to the industry producing the domestic equivalent
as an addition to output and a purchase from imports. This approach
results in demand for a product (for example, steel) being met in part
by domestic production and in part by imports.
Imports used in production which have no domestic counterparts and
imports purchased by final demand in substantially the same form in which
they are imported are shown as purchased directly by the consuming indus
try or final market.
Consistency with base year prices. The basic input-output table is
for the year 1958 and reflects the 1958 price level. In order to use
the input-output relationships, the detailed projections of final demand
expenditures must either be stated in 1958 prices, or the basic inputoutput table must be converted to the price level underlying the final
demand estimates. In this study, the projections of final demand expend
itures are developed in constant 1958 prices.
This does not mean that changes in relative price 9/ are ignored.
For example, projected changes in relative price are used in developing
the detailed estimates of consumer expenditures.
In another area, the change in relative price is implicit in pro
jections of input-output relationships. Technological change affects
input-output coefficients. Similarly, the substitution of one material
for another due to relative price changes may affect input-output
9/ Relative price change is the relationship between the change in
pric6 of a given commodity or service and the average price change of
all commodities and services.
20
coefficients. Where past trends are used as the basis for projecting
input-output relationships, the past impact of relative prices is
assumed to continue.
Investment requirements. The table of direct and indirect inter
industry relationships shows what each industry must produce in order to
provide the materials, transportation, and distributive services ulti
mately embodied in the final products of the economy.
The direct and indirect inputs are limited, however, to current
account of purchases of goods and services. The input-output relation
ships do not cover the purchases of capital goods required, directly or
indirectly, for the production of final goods and services. In using
the input-output relationships as the basis for converting final demand
into direct and indirect industry output requirements, independent pro
jections must be made for investment expenditures for plant and equip
ment required by an expanding economy. The methods used in developing
the projection for this component of final demand are discussed later
in this bulletin.
Employment. The basic interindustry relationships are limited to
production relationships. They show what each industry must produce in
order to meet the demand for final goods and services. The basic inputoutput ratios or coefficients do not cover employment requirements. In
order to evaluate the employment implications of demand for final goods
and services, the output requirements need to be converted into employ
ment requirements. This is accomplished by applying appropriate ratios
of employment per dollar of output to the derived levels of industry
output. This can be done either as a separate stage in the computations
or by converting the basic interindustry table into an interindustry
employment table. The latter shows the employment that is required in
each industry, directly or indirectly, to meet the demand for final
goods and services. As in the case of output, the employment covers all
the intermediate stages of production, transportation, and distribution
ultimately embodied in the final good or service, as well as in the
final stage itself. In this study, the projections for final demand are
converted into employment requirements through the use of an inter
industry employment table.
Projections. Finally, the basic input-output relationships and the
ratios of employment per dollar of output reflect the relationship which
existed in some base period--1958 in this instance. The objective of
the study, however, is to evaluate the employment implications of final
demand, projected to 1970. Consistent with this objective, the inter
industry employment table has also been projected to reflect changes in
input-output relationships as well as changes in unit labor requirements
21
by 1970. The projection of unit labor requirements in each industry is
based, in turn, on the projections of labor productivity (output per
man-hour) and annual hours paid.
The various stages of the projections can, therefore, be considered
as falling into three main categories: (1) projections of the 1970
final demand "bill of goods," classified by input-output industry and
valued in 1958 constant prices; (2) development of a 1970 interindustry
employment table; and (3) the projection of 1970 industry employment,
derived by multiplying the final demand bill of goods by the relation
ships derived from the interindustry employment table.
Balances. A distinctive feature of the approach is that the pro
jections are developed as a series of successive approximations in which
initial estimates of major aggregates and even detailed components may
be modified by later stages in the computations until the various
elements of the models are in balance. For example, the first set of
generated employment requirements may not, in the aggregate, be consist
ent with the projected supply of labor, given the assumed unemployment
rate. If there is a disparity between the supply of labor and the
demand generated by the model, this implies that either the level of
potential output needs to be modified or the elements of the projections
(composition of final demand, input-output relationships, output per
man-hour) leading up to the derived employment requirements need to be
reviewed and modified. Either approach may require several iterations
to achieve a balanced set of estimates. The projections shown in this
bulletin are the final result of this process of successive approxima
tions, using the approach of achieving a balance by modifying each of
the elements.
Chapter II.
Potential Output in 1970
The starting point for the projections of the industrial distribution
of employment is the potential output of final goods and services in 1970.
The projections are based on the assumption that between 1965 and 1970 the
economy will continue to grow sufficiently to provide jobs for the expand
ing labor force and to maintain relatively high rates of employment. For
the purpose of this study, high rates of employment are defined as being
consistent with 4- and 3-percent civilian unemployment rates. Projections
of potential national output have been developed, based on these alterna
tive assumptions regarding the unemployment rate. The projection of
potential output (GNP in constant dollars) involves additional projections
of the labor force, annual hours per worker, and output per man-hour.
The projections of potential national output are developed in constant
(1958) dollars in order to exclude the effect of a change in price. The
projections of constant dollar GNP are stated in 1958 prices to be consist
ent with the price level of the basic input-output table and the detailed
estimates of constant dollar expenditures for final goods and services,
developed by the Office of Business Economics. 10/
The various elements of the projections of potential output are
described below and summarized in table II-l. (See end of chapter.)
In 1965, the labor force (defined as those in the population 14 years
and over at work or seeking work) was 78.4 million. By 1970, assuming a
4-percent unemployment rate, the labor force is expected to grow to about
86 million, an increase of about 7.6 million over the 5-year period.11/
There is some evidence, however, that the labor force participation rate
will respond to the unemployment rate--that more people will seek to enter
the labor force at higher levels of employment. To reflect this, under
the assumption of 3-percent unemployment, the labor force has been
increased by an additional 400,000.12/
The labor force is projected to increase between 1965 and 1970 at 1.9
percent a year in the 4-percent model and 2 percent a year in the 3-percent
model. This may be compared with a growth in the labor force of 1.3
percent a year in the period between 1957--the last previous year in which
unemployment approached 4 percent--and 1965. This increase in the rate is
10/The GNP estimates for 1965, used in deriving potential GNP for
1970, were preliminary. The annual revisions shown in the July 1966
Survey of Current Business were not incorporated in any of the estimates,
nor in any of the tables showing 1965 GNP. However, the magnitude of the
annual revisions are such that it is unlikely that any of the results
would be changed significantly.
11/Sophia Cooper and Denis F. Johnston, "Labor Force Projections for
1970-80," (Special Labor Force Report No. 26), Monthly Labor Review,
February 1965, pp. 129-40.
12/Sophia Cooper and Denis Johnston, op. cit., p. 140.
22
23
largely the result of the entrance into the labor force of the large number
of persons born in the immediate post-war period who will reach working age
during 1965-70. Another reason is the higher labor force participation
rates for women. Applying the assumed unemployment rates to the projected
civilian labor force gives the level of employment in 1970. The size of
the Armed Forces is estimated separately. The projections assume that the
conflict in Viet Nam will be over by 1970, but that defense expenditures
and the size of the Armed Forces will be maintained at a level somewhat
above the pre-Viet Nam level.
In 1965, the labor force was below the level implied by the projec
tions for the 1960-70 period. It is difficult to judge how much of this
"shortfall" is transitory and how much of it reflects factors which would
affect the trend in labor force participation rates over a longer term.
Acceptance of the original labor force estimates for 1970 assumes that
participation rates will return to the trend levels. On this basis, the
1.9-percent projected increase in the labor force from 1965 includes the
acceleration required to make up the shortfall, in addition to the
increases normally to be expected. The projected rate of growth of the
labor force, excluding the shortfall, would be about 1.7 percent a year,
still considerably above that of the previous rate (1.3 percent).
The detailed employment projections, which are developed later in the
models, are based on data consistent with establishment reporting systems
which count jobs; the data thus reflect dual jobholding. In contrast, the
labor force estimates are based on household interviews which count indi
viduals, rather than jobs. An adjustment is made to the projection of the
labor force in order to make it consistent with the establishment reporting
system.13/ The establishment-based estimates of employment used in the pro
jections are those developed by the Office of Productivity, Technology and
Growth, BLS, as part of its program of productivity measures.
The estimate of total employment, based on establishment reports, is
derived by adding estimates of government employment, agricultural employ
ment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, and domestics to BLS estimates
of private nonfarm wage and salary employment.
The difference between the labor force estimate of total employment
and that based on the adjusted establishment series reflects both statis
tical differences as well as differences due to dual jobholding. The
13/
cedures
note in
Monthly
For a discussion of the differences in the labor force survey pro
and the nonfarm establishment reporting system, see the technical
any current issue of BLS periodical, Employment and Earnings and
Report on the Labor Force.
24
adjustment factor has varied over the historical period. In the projec
tions developed for this bulletin, it has been assumed that the difference
between the two employment estimates will remain at about the level of the
average difference for the past few years.
The projections of hours of work and productivity use estimates for
the postwar years which are prepared by the Office of Productivity, Tech
nology and Growth. These are used as a statistical frame of reference,
thus assuring consistency between historical data and projections of
employment, hours of work, productivity and output.14/
These projections of employment, hours of work, and productivity are
developed for broad sectors (i.e., government, agriculture and nonagri
culture).
This is done to take into account the fact that aggregate
productivity may be affected by shifts in the relative importance of
sectors which have different levels of productivity.
The separate projections of labor force, unemployment, employment,
annual hours per job, and productivity (output per man-hour) are combined
to develop the estimates of potential GNP in 1970. Derived from these are
the implied growth rates between 1965 and 1970 required to achieve and
then maintain the rates of unemployment at 4 and 3 percent of the civilian
labor force.
Total employment, on an establishment basis, is projected to increase
by 1.9 or 2.2 percent a year, depending on the unemployment assumption.
The rates among the major sectors of the economy vary considerably. Fed
eral Government employment is projected to increase only moderately--at
about half the rate of increase of total employment. The moderate increase
in Federal employment is consistent with the assumption regarding the end
of the Viet Nam conflict by 1970. In addition, the projections of Federal
Government programs developed in the final demand "bill of goods" stage
imply that most of the increases in Federal Government expenditures are not
for direct purchases of goods and services, including Federal employment.
They are for grants to State and local governments for such programs as,
aid to education, and manpower training or for transfer of funds to indi
viduals, as under the social security programs. Federal Government
employment would, therefore, be affected only moderately by the expansion
of such programs as aid to education, antipoverty, and Medicare.
14/lrends in Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy, 1909-1958,
Bulletin 1249, 1960. For the most recent information on indexes of output
per man-hour, see release "Indexes of Output per Man-Hour for the Private
Economy, 1947-1965," Office of Productivity, Technology and Growth, BLS,
October 1966.
25
State and local government employment, on the other hand, is pro
jected to continue to increase much faster than the average, as it has
been doing for most of the postwar period. The projected increase in
State and local government employment of 5 percent or more a year is
based on a detailed study of the expected expansion in State and local
government expenditures over the next 5 years. The details are discussed
later1in the bulletin, when describing the projection of the "bill of
goods" for State and local government.
The 3-percent unemployment model allows for a somewhat higher rate
of increase in State and local government employment than does the
4-percent model. This is based on the assumption that some increases in
manpower training and antipoverty programs will be necessary to achieve
and then maintain a 3-percent unemployment rate. Such programs would
require some increase in State and local employment because of the expan
sion in training staff. Also, in the case of certain programs such as
Neighborhood Youth Corps, trainees are considered as State and local
employees.
The difference in State and local government employment between the
3- and 4-percent unemployment models represents only a third of the total
difference of 1.2 million jobs between the two models. Most of the
increased employment is assumed to be in the private sector of the economy.
Employment in the agricultural sector is projected on the basis of a
continuation of the postwar decline in employment for this sector. The
rate of decline is somewhat reduced, however.
Given the projected increase in total employment and the separate
projections of Federal Government employment, State and local government
employment, and farm employment, total private nonagricultural employment
is derived as a residual. The projected increases for this sector are
1.9 and 2.1 percent a year over the 1957-65 period. The increased rate
of employment reflects both acceleration in the growth of the labor force
and reduction in the unemployment rate.
Within the total private nonagricultural sector, the projected
increase in employment varies by type of employment. Self-employed and
unpaid family workers, for example, are assumed to increase at half the
rate of total employment, continuing the past decline in this whole
class of employment relative to wage and salary employment.
The projections of annual hours per job are developed separately for
each major sector.15/ Hours per person employed in the government sectors
are assumed to remain the same as in 1965. Average hours in agriculture
15/Hours used are payroll hours or hours paid, which include paid
holidays, paid vacations, and paid sick leave.
239-877 0 66-3
-
26
are expected to decline at about the rate for the postwar period, exclud
ing the change for the last year or two which saw a slowing down in the
decline in hours.
Hours per job for the private nonfarm sector are expected to decline
at about 0.3 percent a year. The decline reflects a projection of little
or no change in manufacturing hours and a continuation of declines in the
nonmanufacturing sector. In the 1963-65 period, average hours increased
rather than followed the trend toward reduced hours. It is assumed,
however, that average hours, which in 1965 already included substantial
overtime in the manufacturing sector and increases in other sectors, will
revert to stability in manufacturing and to continued reductions in non
manufacturing. The much larger labor force being projected includes, by
assumption, increased part-time employment among students and women.
Both groups are traditionally employed in the large nonmanufacturing
sectors of trade and services, which provide most of the opportunity for
part-time employment.
The trend of output per man-hour is the most difficult element to
project. It reflects changes in technology, quality of the labor force,
rate of capital investment, and capacity utilization. These factors in
turn reflect many other elements in the economic, political, and social
structure of the Nation.
For the purpose of these projections, it is assumed that the trend
in output per man-hour since 1957 would continue over the next 5 years.
The 1957-65 period was chosen, because 1957 was the last year in which
the unemployment rate was close to 4 percent. Thus, the distortions
resulting from changes in capacity utilization are minimized. The rate
of growth in output per man-hour during this period was 3.2 percent a
year for the private economy.16/ Productivity increases in the agricul
tural sector were considerably higher than the average. They are pro
jected to continue their increase--about 5.5 percent a year--a more
rapid rate than that of the nonfarm sector. The rate of change for the
private nonfarra sector is projected at the past rate of 2.9 percent a
year.
The separate projections of the labor force, employment, annual
hours per worker, and output per man-hour yield a projected growth rate
of 4.3 percent a year, under the 4-percent unemployment assumption, and
4.5 percent a year, under the 3-percent unemployment assumption. Real
GNP in 1958 prices is projected to grow by 1970 to about $750 billion
under the first assumption, and to almost $760 billion under the latter
assumption.
(In 1965 prices, potential GNP in 1970 would be about $835
or $845 billion, depending on the unemployment assumption.)
16/In accordance with the conventions in the measurement of constant
dollar GNP, output per man-hour for government is assumed to be constant,
i.e., it is assumed that there is no increase in the productivity of gov
ernment employees.
27
These projected rates of increase are annual averages for the
remainder of the decade. The sustainable growth rate, estimated to be
about 4 percent a year by 1970, would be lower because part of the
increase is related to the reduction in unemployment rate from the 4.6
average in 1965 and making up the "shortfall" in the growth in the
labor force. The projected growth rates are lower than those achieved
over the past few years, but are still significantly higher than the
actual growth rate of 3.7 percent a year over the entire post-war period
It should be emphasized that the projected growth rates are based
on a number of assumptions. If the labor force shortfall is not made
up, the growth rate would be about 0.2 percent a year lower. If the
decline in average hours is eliminated or reduced, the growth rate
would be higher. Finally, the growth rate would be somewhat higher or
lower depending on the assumption about the trend in output per man-hour
28
Table II-l.
Labor Force, Employment, Annual Hours, Productivity, and Gross National Product
Actual 1957 and 1965, and Potential 1970
Actual
1965-70
Item
1957
Total labor force (thousands)...............................
Average annual. .
rate of c h a n g e ^
Projected 1970
1965— ^
3 percent 4 percent
unemploy unemploy
ment
ment
1957-65
3 percent 4 percent
unemploy unemploy
ment
ment
70.744
78.357
86.400
86.000
1.3
2.0
Unemployed..................................................
2,936
3,456
2,507
3,326
1.4
-6.2
-.7
Employed.......................... ........ .................
67,808
74,901
83,893
82,674
1.3
2.3
2.0
Employment:
1.9
establishment basis— ^ (thousands).............
71,117
77,347
86,193
84,974
1.1
2.2
1.9
Gover n m e n t ^ ...............................................
9,756
12,003
14,718
14,301
2.6
4.2
3.6
Federal...................................................
4,531
4,560
4,795
4,790
.1
1.0
1.0
Military............... ................................
2,786
2,720
2,850
2,850
-.3
.9
.9
Civilian................................................
1,745
1,840
1,945
1,940
.7
1.1
1.1
5.0
State and local..........................................
5,225
7,443
9,923
9,511
4.5
5.9
Private.....................................................
61,361
65,344
71,475
70,673
.8
1.8
1.6
Agriculture..... ........................................
6,222
4,585
4,080
4,080
-3.8
-2.4
-2.4
Nonagriculture................ ..........................
55,139
60,759
67,395
66,593
1.2
2.1
1.9
Hours of work (annual average)— p r i v a t e ^ ..................
2,112
2,081
2,040
2,040
-.2
-.4
-.4
Agriculture......... ........................ ...... ........
2,371
2,345
2,298
2,298
-.1
-.4
-.4
Nonagriculture..............................................
2,089
2,061
2,030
2,030
-.2
-.3
-.3
Total man-hours (millions)— private.........................
129,619
135,969
145,806
144,272
.6
1.4
1.2
-2.7
Agriculture.................................................
Nonagriculture.............................................
GNP per man-hour (1958 dollars)— private— ^ .......... .......
14,752
10,752
9,376
9,376
-3.8
-2.7
114,867
125,217
136,430
134,896
1.1
1.8
1.5
3.15
4.07
4.76
4.75
3.2
3.2
3.2
5.4
Agriculture.................................................
1.38
2.17
2.83
2.82
5.8
5.5
Nonagriculture..............................................
3.38
4.24
4.89
4.89
2.9
2.9
2.9
Gross national product (1958 dollars).......................
452.5
609.0
^759.0
^750.7
3.8
4.5
4.3
2.1
4.5
5.0
5.0
10.0
2.1
2.1
GNP (domestic)..............................................
450.4
604.5
754.0
745.7
3.7
4.5
4.3
Government, general......................................
41.9
50.6
60.0
59.3
2.7
3.5
3.2
Federal........... .....................................
21.5
21.6
22.8
22.8
.1
1.1
1.1
Military...........................................
11.1
10.9
11.4
11.4
-.2
.9
.9
Civilian.............................................
10.3
10.7
11.4
11.4
.5
1.3
1.3
Rest of the w o r l d ^ ................ .......................
State and local........................................
20.4
29.0
37.2
36.5
4.5
5.1
4.7
Private..................................................
408.5
553.9
694.0
686.4
3.9
4.6
4.4
Agriculture............................................
20.3
23.3
26.5
26.4
1.7
2.5
2.5
Nonagriculture.........................................
388.2
530.6
667.5
660.0
3.5
4.7
4.5
1/ Preliminary estimate.
2/ Compound interest rate based on terminal years.
3/ The total civilian employment differs from that shown
in table VI-1 and table VI-3 because of differences in the
treatment of government employees.
4/ For consistency with measures of government output,
estimates of government employment used are those developed
by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics.
5/ In accordance with the conventions in the measurement
of constant dollar gross national product, productivity for
government is assumed constant.
Since no change in average
hours is projected for this sector, the change in govern
ment product is equal to the change in employment.
6/ Gross national product for 1970 shown here is as com
puted but has been rounded to $760 and $750 for use as control
totals for the various models.
Rest of the world reflects U.S. income and product orig
inating outside the United States.
U
SOURCE: Historical data on gross national product are from
the U.S. Department of Comaerce, Office of Business Economics.
All other historical data and projections are from the U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Chapter III.
Distribution of Potential Output Among Major Categories
of Final Demand
The projections developed in this bulletin are based on the assump
tion that potential demand for end products and services by the various
final demand claimants are exactly equal in total to the potential out
put of the economy in 1970. This chapter describes how the total final
demand may be distributed among the major categories of consumer goods
and services, private investment goods, public goods and services, and
net exports.
In general, the composition of final demand is projected on the
basis of a combination of assumptions and independent studies for spe
cific final demand components. Because the assumptions are basic to an
understanding of the projections, it may be useful to start with an
explanation of these assumptions.
Assumptions
Some of the basic assumptions have already been mentioned. The
major assumption is that the Viet Nam conflict will have been resolved
by 1970 and that defense expenditures and the size of the Armed Forces
will be reduced to a level somewhat higher than that which existed prior
to the Viet Nam buildup. In the event of a large scale military build
up, the resulting patterns of demand and employment would, of course, be
significantly different. This is especially true for several of the
defense-related Industries--ordnance, aircraft, and electronics and
communications equipment, among others.
It is further assumed that growth in the economy will be based pri
marily on the expansion of consumption and investment demand and of State
and local government expenditures. Federal Government direct purchases
of goods and services are projected to expand only moderately.
As previously stated, it should be noted that expenditures result
ing from many Federal Government programs are treated in the national
income accounts, and therefore in these projections, as expenditures by
consumers (Medicare), and by State and local governments (highway
construction).
In general, the projections are based on the assumption of contin
uation of past relationships, e.g., relationships of consumer expendi
tures for specific items to the level and change in personal income, or
extension of existing government programs to provide public services.
The projections of demand are not based on a systematic analysis of
national goals and what would be required to achieve these goals, e.g.,
achievement of minimum nutritional standards or elimination of substand
ard housing. However, the basic assumptions of high rates of employment
29
30
and continued economic growth underlying these projections would imply
gains in the attainment of minimum standards or goals.17/
It is also assumed that maintenance of growth rates consistent with
high levels of employment would be implemented by appropriate fiscal and
monetary policies designed to maintain adequate aggregate demand. In
addition, continuation of specialized programs to provide training and
retraining, worker experience, labor mobility, and employment in public
service projects would be essential. Implementation of these special
programs will involve the active participation of labor, management, non
profit organizations, and agencies of Federal, State, and local government.
It is assumed that Federal Government policy places more emphasis on
expansion of specialized programs under the 3-percent unemployment model
than under the 4-percent unemployment model. Expansion of these special
ized programs will involve some increase in direct government employment
(primarily State and local government), but most of the increase is ex
pected to be in the private sector of the economy. Consistent with the
assumption that the primary objective of the specialized programs is to
facilitate employment in the private sector, the patterns of final demand
in both the 4- and 3-percent unemployment models are similar. A moder
ately higher level of employment in State and local governments is projec
ted for the 3-percent unemployment model.
One of the major uncertainties in the projections of final demand is
the extent to which the unusually high rates of increase during the past
few years for consumer durables, particularly automobiles, and for domes
tic private investment for plant and equipment may be expected to continue.
The substantial increases in demand for durable goods account in large part
for the reversal of the previous sluggish growth in manufacturing employ
ment. In order to explore the implications of changes in this dynamic
component of final demand, several alternative assumptions have been devel
oped. The basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models assume that by 1970,
expenditures for consumer and producer durable goods will return to a pat
tern based on past relationships. An alternative to the basic 4-percent
unemployment model (high durables) assumes that the recent sharp increase
in expenditures for consumer durables and capital goods will continue, but
at a more moderate rate. This rate is still above that implied by past
relationships, however. An additional alternative to the 4-percent unem
ployment model (high services) assumes that, as a result of increased
productivity of capital, capital expenditures will continue to increase,
but at a lower rate than the increase in real output; therefore, capital
17/ For research on the achievement of national goals, see: (1)
Leonard Lecht, The Dollar Cost of Our National Goals, (Washington, D. C.,
National planning Association, 1965); and (2) the section on "Manpower
Requirements to Achieve National Goals" in the 1966 Manpower Report of
the President, pp. 45-47.
31
expenditures for plant and equipment would decline as a proportion of GNP.
This alternative model also assumes that the anticipated sharp increase in
residential construction, postulated in the basic models, will be delayed
somewhat and will only increase moderately by 1970. The slower increase
in private domestic investment in this model is assumed to be offset by
larger increases in consumer expenditures, primarily in consumer services
and increased State and local government expenditures.
Although the alternative projections are only applied to the basic
4-percent unemployment model in this bulletin, they can be considered as
equally applicable to the basic 3-percent unemployment model.
Based on the assumptions indicated above and on the studies of a num
ber of the final demand categories, the projections of the major components
of final demand in 1970, as shown in tables III-l to 3, are developed. These
projections are as follows:
Government expenditures. By 1970, Federal Government expenditures
are projected to increase about $6.5 billion (in constant 1958 prices)
above the 1965 level. This implies moderate increases for nondefense
programs and a leveling off of military expenditures below the 1966 level,
but still somewhat higher than the 1965 level. The projection of Federal
nondefense purchases of goods and services is based in part on some of the
long-run projections developed by the National Planning Association in a
study for the Brookings Institution.18/
Federal expenditures for goods and services are projected to increase
at a slower rate than the growth in total final demand. The result is that
this component will decline from about 9.4 percent of real GNP in 1965 to
about 8.4 percent by 1970.
In contrast, State and local government expenditures for goods and
services are projected to increase substantially faster than any other ma
jor component of final demand. This reflects the rapid growth in services,
particularly in the education area, required by an expanding and continual
more urban population. As a result, the relative increase in State and
local government expenditures for goods and services is expected to almost
offset the relative decline in Federal Government expenditures for goods
and services. The increase in State and local government expenditures
would be from about 9 percent in 1965 to about 10 percent in 1970. By
1970, State and local government expenditures for goods and services are
projected to be substantially higher than those made by the Federal Gov
ernment. The projection for State and local government expenditures is
somewhat higher in the high service (low investment) model than in the
other models.
18/ Gerhard Colm and Peter Wagner, Federal Budget Projections in the
Perspective of Economic Growth, National Planning Association, Studies of
Government Finance, (Washington, D. C., The Brookings Institution, 1965).
32
The estimates of State and local government expenditures are based
on an evaluation of the extent to which existing programs may be modified,
extended, or expanded by 1970. This is based on a detailed analysis of
each function performed by State and local governments, taking account of
such specific factors as the effect of anticipated increases in school en
rollment on education expenditures.
The estimates of State and local government expenditures for goods
and services are based on two separate but complementary approaches: one,
an evaluation of functions for all State and local governments combined;
the other, a much more detailed State-by-State approach. The first ap
proach was developed by staff of the Bureau*s Division of Economic Growth
and the second by a special study group cosponsored by the Council of
State Governments and George Washington University.19/ The projections of
expenditures by these different approaches yield approximately the same
results.
Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists of three
items; expenditures for private residential construction, expenditures for
private plant and equipment, and net change in business inventories.
In the basic projections, private residential construction is projec
ted to increase rapidly by 1970 to provide housing for the growing number
of families and to meet the large demand for replacement of old units.
Housing starts (single family housing and multiunit dwellings) are projec
ted to increase from about 1.5 million in 1965 to about 1.9 million in 1970
This is consistent with the intermediate projection of housing starts for
the 1965-75 decade, developed by the Office of Business Economics, U.S.
Department of Commerce.20/
Nonhousekeeping units (hotels, motels) are projected to increase even
faster than housekeeping units. The rate of increase in total private resi
dential construction is somewhat higher than for the economy as a whole.
However, because housing starts have shown little growth for several years
and because construction might not respond to increases in family formation
until after 1970, the high service (low investment) model assumes a lower
rate of increase than the basic model.
As previously indicated, the projection of private nonresidential fix
ed investment represents one of the most difficult areas in the entire set
of projections. For several years, expenditures for this category have
been increasing substantially faster than real output in the economy. By
1965, this component accounted for 10.7 percent of GNP (in 1958 prices), a
somewhat higher ratio than that achieved in the capital goods boom of
1955-57. Information on expenditures for private nonresidential fixed in
vestment during 1966 indicates that this relative increase will continue.
19/ This project was under the direction of Selma Mushkin, see Biblio
graphy in Appendix.
20/ L. Jay Atkinson, "Long-Term Influences Affecting the Volume of New
Housing Units," Survey of Current Business, November 1963, pp. 8-19.
33
There is considerable uncertainty, however, as to how much longer this can
continue before increases in capacity exceed demand.
Since there is so much uncertainty in this area, the projection for
this category has not been limited to a single estimate. Instead, three
alternative assumptions have been introduced into the models to test the
implications of these alternatives on the structure of demand and
employment.
The basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models assume that private
nonresidential fixed investment in 1970 will account for approximately
the same ratio of total final demand as in 1965--10.7 percent. The high
durable goods alternative to the basic 4-percent unemployment model assumes
that the relative increase in expenditures for this category will continue
for most of the remainder of the decade, but at a slower rate than that of
the past few years. By 1970, the ratio of private nonresidential fixed in
vestment to output (GNP in constant prices) is projected to increase to
11.5 percent--$6.5 billion more than in the basic model.
Recent research at the Brookings Institution suggests a different
alternative. Namely, that as a result of increasing efficiency in the
use of capital, the proportion of output devoted to private nonresiden
tial fixed investment may decline rather than increase.21/ In order to
examine this possibility, the high service (low investment) alternative
assumes that private nonresidential fixed investment will continue to
increase, but at a slower rate than real output, and by 1970 will repre
sent a smaller proportion of real GNP than in 1965. It is further assumed
that this reduction will be offset by increases in consumer and State and
local government expenditures, primarily for services.
By 1970, under the assumptions of this model, the proportion of GNP
devoted to private nonresidential fixed investment is projected to decline
to 10 percent— about $5 billion lower than in the basic model. Thus, the
implications of a range of almost $12 billion in private nonresidential
fixed investment is explored in these models.
The projection for this component is further distributed between con
struction and producer durable equipment. This is done on the assumption
that the long-run increase in the proportion going to equipment will con
tinue, but at a diminishing rate. In 1965, investment in equipment repre
sented 67 percent of this total; by 1970, it is projected to increase to
almost 70 percent, a higher ratio than at any time during the postwar years.
21/ Bert G. Hickman, Investment Demand and U.S. Economic Growth,
(Washington, D. C., The Brookings Institution, 1965).
34
The last category of investment, the change in inventories is projec
ted on the assumption that it will increase sufficiently to maintain the
ratio to real output it achieved in 1964. The year 1964 rather than 1965
was selected as a more appropriate base because of the special factors
affecting inventories during 1965. For example, steel was stockpiled in
anticipation of a steel strike. Also, the ratio of inventory change to
GNP in 1964 is about the same as that for the entire period 1957-65.
Net exports. The projection of net exports is based on a study by
the Office of Business Economics which projects the major components of
the United States balance of payments, including separate estimates of
imports and exports. It is assumed that by 1970 international payments
among the major regions of the world will be roughly in balance.22/ Net
exports as a percentage of GNP are projected to increase from 1.0 percent
in 1965 to about 1.4 percent in 1970.
Personal consumption. The largest category of final demand, consumer
expenditures, is initially derived as a residual. It is then evaluated to
determine whether its relationship to total final demand is reasonable from
the viewpoint of the past trend in its share of output. Because the esti
mate of consumer expenditures is derived initially as the residual component,
the share of consumer expenditures in the models varies, depending on the
assumptions underlying the models.
In general, the share of consumer expenditures in the basic models is
approximately the same as that during most of the period since 1957--almost
65 percent of GNP. The high durable goods alternative, which includes a
larger share for investment, has a somewhat smaller ratio of consumer ex
penditures. Conversely, the high service (low investment) alternative has
a higher proportion of GNP going to consumer expenditures. The difference
between the alternatives amounts to $12 billion.
The various models make it possible to explore the implications for
employment of possible changes in both the level and composition of con
sumer demand. The composition of consumer expenditures has already been
mentioned in the earlier discussion of the alternative models. It will
be discussed further in the next section which deals with the methodology
used to develop the more detailed distribution of the major components of
final demand.
22/ Evelyn M. Parrish, A Pattern of Balances of Payments between World
Regions in 1970, Staff Working Paper in Economics and Statistics, No. 9,
Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, September 1964
(unpublished).
35
Table Ill-l.
Gross National Product, by Major Components, Selected Years and Projected 1970
(Billions of 1958 dollars)
Selected years^7
Projected 1970
Major component
1962
1957
1965^
3 percent
unemploy
ment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High-7
durables
High^
services
Gross national product.....................................
452.5
530.0
609.0
760.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
Personal consumption expenditures......................
288.2
338.6
394.1
492.6
485.5
478.5
490.5
Durable goods........................................
41.5
49.2
65.4
83.1
81.9
89.7
82.2
Nondurable goods.....................................
138.7
158.4
177.0
212.1
209.0
208.2
209.8
Services.............................................
108.0
131.1
151.6
197.4
194.5
180.6
198.5
Gross private domestic Investment......................
68.8
79.4
96.1
118.6
117.0
124.0
110.0
Fixed investment.....................................
67.6
73.4
88.9
112.6
111.0
118.0
104.0
Nonresidentlal....................................
47.4
49.7
65.0
81.3
80.0
86.5
75.1
Structures.....................................
18.2
17.9
21.2
25.3
25.0
27.0
23.6
Producers' durable equipment.................
29.1
31.7
43.8
56.0
55.0
59.5
51.5
Residential structures...........................
20.2
23.8
23.9
31.3
31.0
31.5
28.9
Change in business inventories......................
1.2
6.0
7.2
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
Net exports of goods and services......................
6.2
4.5
6.0
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
Exports.................. ............................
26.2
30.0
37.3
45.2
45.2
45.2
45.2
Imports...............................................
19.9
25.5
31.3
34.7
34.7
34.7
34.7
Government purchases of goods and services............
89.3
107.5
112.8
138.4
137.0
137.0
139.0
Federal................................ .............
51.7
60.0
57.2
63.7
63.5
63.5
63.5
State and local......................................
37.6
47.5
55.6
74.7
73.5
73.5
75.5
Gross national product.....................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Personal consumption expenditures......................
63.7
63.9
64.7
64.8
64.7
63.8
65.4
9.2
9.3
10.7
10.9
10.9
12.0
11.0
Nondurable goods............................. .......
30.7
29.9
29.1
27.9
27.9
27.8
28.0
Services.............................................
23.9
24.7
24.9
26.0
25.9
24.1
26.5
15.2
15.0
15.8
15.6
15.6
16.5
14.7
14.9
13.8
14.6
14.8
14.8
15.7
13.9
Nonresidentlal....................................
10.5
9.4
10.7
10.7
10.7
11.5
10.0
Structures.....................................
4.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.1
Producers' durable equipment.................
6.4
6.0
7.2
7.4
7.3
7.9
6.9
Residential structures............. ........... .
4.5
4.5
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.9
0.3
1.1
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Net exports of goods and services......................
1.4
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Exports...............................................
5.8
5.7
6.1
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.0
Imports........................... ...................
4.4
4.8
5.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
Government purchases of goods and services............
19.7
20.3
18.5
18.2
18.3
18.3
18.5
Federal...................................... ........
11.4
11.3
9.4
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
State and local......................................
8.3
9.0
9.1
9.8
9.8
9.8
10.1
Percent distribution
Durable goods................ .................. .
Gross private domestic investment......................
Fixed investment....................................
Change in business Inventories...........
1/ See table A-l for data covering 1950-65.
2/ Preliminary estimate.
3/ The high durables model assumes continuation of above
average Increases In expenditures for consumer durables and
fixed nonresidential investment.
4/ The high services model assumes a lower than average
increase in consumer durables and fixed nonresidentlal invest
ment with the difference made up by increases In consumer and
State and local expenditures for medical and educational
services.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals or 100 percent.
SOURCE: Historical data on gross national product are
from U.S. Department of Cosmerce, Office of Business Economics.
Projections are by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
36
Table III-2.
Changes in Gross National Product, by Major Components,
Selected Periods and Projected 1965-70— 7
(Average annual rate o£ change)
Selected periods
Projected 1970
Major component
1957-65
1957-62
1962-65
3 percent
unemploy
ment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High-7
durables
High— 7
services
3.8
3.2
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.3
Personal consumption expenditures.
4.0
3.3
5.2
4.6
4.3
4.0
4.5
Durable goods.................. .
5.9
3.5
9.9
4.9
4.6
6.5
4.7
Nondurable goods................
3.1
2.7
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.5
Services.............. .
4.3
4.0
5.0
5.4
5.1
3.6
5.5
Gross private domestic investment.
3.9
2.9
6.5
4.3
4.0
5.2
2.7
Fixed investment................
3.2
1.7
6.6
4.8
4.5
5.8
3.2
Nonresidential................
3.6
0.9
9.3
4.6
4.3
5.9
2.9
Structures......... .
1.1
-0.3
5.8
3.6
3.3
5.0
2.2
Producers' durable
equipment...................
5.1
1.7
11.4
5.0
4.7
6.3
3.1
Residential structures.......
2.1
3.3
0.1
5.5
5.3
5.7
3.9
23.6
38.0
6.3
-3.6
-3.6
-3.6
-3.6
Net exports of goods and
services..........................
1.5
-6.2
10.0
11.9
11.9
11.9
11.9
Exports............ •••.•••••••••
4.6
2.8
7.5
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
Imports............. ...........
5.5
5.1
7.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
Government purchases of goods
and services......................
2.9
3.8
1.6
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.3
Federal.........................
1.3
3.0
-1.6
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
State and local.................
4.9
4.8
5.4
6.1
5.8
5.8
6.3
Gross national product.......... .
Change in business inventories..
1/ Compound interest rates based on terminal
years.
2J See footnote 3 in table III-l for explanaation.
3/ See footnote 4 in table I1I-1 for explanation.
Chapter IV.
Detailed Final Demand "Bill of Goods"
The objective in this phase of the work is to distribute the aggre
gate estimate of expenditures for each major component of potential GNP
into detailed expenditures for specific goods and services. The distri
bution must be consistent with the industry classification system and spe
cial definitions of the input-output framework used in the models. The
detailed estimates have been developed by projecting, wherever possible,
the changing composition of the individual categories of goods and ser
vices for each major component of final demand. The methods vary, depend
ing on the particular component and the availability of historical data
which can be used to develop functional relationships or trends. For some
of the areas, several stages are involved in the estimating procedures.
The historical data (primarily from the Office of Business Economics)
used in evaluating past and prospective changes in patterns of expenditures
vary from category to category in the level of detail available. In this
report, these data have been used for the initial projection of the distri
bution of final demand. The data were then adjusted and modified to be
consistent with the input-output classification system (table IV-1). The
detailed projections, stated in producers' value at 1958 prices are shown
in a series of tables which also include the comparable expenditures for
each item as shown in the basic input-output table for 1958. In addition,
in order to provide estimates of final demand in full input-output detail
for a more recent year than 1958, estimates for 1962 also have been devel
oped and included in the tables.
Before discussing demand by industry, certain industry conventions
within the input-output structure should be mentioned. First, a number
of industries are not industries in the usual sense. Three of the indus
tries are synthetic or "dummy" industries. Such industries generally con
sist of numerous commodities or services which originate in different in
dustries. Their use is related to a common activity for which information
on consumption is generally limited to the group as a whole. In such in
stances, products made in different industries are channeled through a
fictitious distributing industry. An example is industry 82, office sup
plies, which "buys" and then distributes paper clips, typewriter paper,
and similar office supplies through one central source. The two other
dummy industries which provide a similar function are industry 81, busi
ness travel, entertainment, and gifts; and industry 83, scrap, used and
secondhand goods.
To anticipate the discussion later in the report, purchases from in
dustries 81 and 82 do not generate employment in these industries, but in
the industries which actually produce those products and services which
are channeled through the two dummy industries. Industry 83, the ficti
tious scrap industry, is actually not used when tracing the impact of
final demand in industry output and employment since this would imply that
industries would generate output in order to produce scrap to sell to the
scrap industry.
37
38
The treatment of government also requires some special explanation.
Industries 78 and 79, Federal and State and local government enterprises
respectively, cover governmental activities which are analogous to com
mercial activities in that they sell a product or service. Examples are
the Post Office and local transportation agencies. Industry 84 covers
government employment involved in general functions of Federal, State,
and local government (e.g., general administration, teaching, etc.).
Industry 80, gross imports of goods and services, represents U.S.
payments to foreigners for merchandise, services, and factors of produc
tion. The treatment of imports in the input-output system has been dis
cussed in chapter I. Industry 86, households, covers the service of
domestics.
Finally, there are three industries which have been modified in the
present report from their treatment in the original input-output table.
Industry 11, new construction, is a single industry in the input-output
table. Because inputs vary considerably for different types of construc
tion, and information is available on these input patterns by type of
construction, the projections for new construction actually have been
developed in considerable detail and then consolidated to a single in
dustry to simplify the presentation in the report.
The second modified industry is industry 74, research and develop
ment. It is treated in the basic input-output table as analogous to a
dummy industry which buys all research and development (R&D), wherever
conducted. It then sells this package of R&D to purchasing industries.
The R&D which is done on an independent commercial basis, e.g., in test
ing laboratories, is also included in this industry. For the purpose of
this study, the R&D industry is redefined so that it is limited to inde
pendent commercial establishments. Host R&D is treated as a direct sale
from the producing industry to the purchaser. For example, R&D on mili
tary aircrafts by the aircraft industry is sold directly to the Federal
Government.
In the original input-output table, industry 85, rest of the world,
covered U.S. income and product (including Federal Government interest
receipts) originating in the rest of the world; travel receipts from
foreign visitors, and personal remittances-in-kind to foreigners. The
industry has been modified for this study to exclude travel receipts and
personal remittances-in-kind. This adjustment affects the industry de
tail of the personal consumption expenditures and export sectors. These
adjustments are discussed in the appropriate sections.
In general, the descriptions of methods used to develop the projec
tions of final demand by industry for each component refer to the esti
mates in the basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models. The distribution
39
of expenditures within each major component or subgroup under the high
durable and high service alternatives is derived by applying the basic
model distribution to the new level of expenditures for each component
in the alternative models.
The tables at the end of this chapter show constant dollar esti
mates for 1958, 1962, and 1970 and also the percent distribution of the
expenditures for each category of final demand. A primary concern in
this study is the effect the changing composition of final demand and
other factors have on the relative growth and industrial composition of
employment. The discussion of the projections, therefore, emphasizes
the relative change in the distribution of expenditures rather than the
absolute dollar change.
Government Expenditures
The projections of government expenditures are based on analyses
of factors affecting growth in the various governmental functions.
Federal Government expenditures are divided, for this study, into those
for defense (including space exploration) and nondefense. State and lo
cal government expenditures are analyzed with reference to these func
tions: education, highways, public health and sanitation, natural
resources, and other categories.
Each of these functions is initially distributed into three major
items--employee compensation,23/ construction, and all other purchases.
Employee compensation, in constant dollars, is the same as the projected
change in government employment. This is consistent with the assumption
in the national income accounts of no productivity change in the govern
ment sector. The construction expenditures are further distributed by
type of construction. The "other purchases" for each function are dis
tributed into detailed requirements based on separate expenditure pat
terns for each function.
Federal Government. In 1962, total Federal Government expenditures
for goods and services, excluding transfer payments to individuals and
grants to State and local governments, amounted to $60.0 billion (1958
prices). In 1965, total expenditures had declined to $57.1 billion. By
far, the greatest part of this total, about 85 percent, was used to sup
port Federal defense and space programs (Department of Defense, National
23/ In the input-output system of accounts, employee compensation
does not include the payroll of "force accounts" government employees
working on new or maintenance construction. Their payroll is included
as part of the new and maintenance construction expenditures by govern
ment .
ko
Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Atomic Energy Commission).
Only about 15 percent of the expenditures were for the myriad other
activities of the Federal Government.24/
Between 1965 and 1970, Federal Government purchases of goods and
services are projected to increase by about $6.5 billion, to a total of
about $63.5 billion. About half of the increase is projected to be due
to increased expenditures for defense and space programs, the other half
for the remaining programs.
A major part of the increase in nondefense expenditures is related
to antipoverty and health, education, conservation, and welfare programs.
This is reflected in increases for new construction and other purchases
from the private sector; relatively smaller increases are due to in
creased employment. Nondefense expenditures are slightly higher under
the 3-percent unemployment assumption than under the 4-percent unemploy
ment model. Most of the difference is related to education and health
functions.
The detailed projections of Federal Government expenditures for
goods and services, classified by producing industry and converted to
producers* value in 1958 prices, are shown in tables IV-2 and 3. Com
parable data for 1958 and 1962 also are shown. By 1970, compensation of
general government employees (industry 84), both civilian and military,
would account for about 35 percent of total expenditures--about the same
proportion as in 1962 but below that of 1965. New construction (indus
try 11) is projected to increase from almost 6 percent of the total in
1962 to over 7 percent. For the remaining purchases, the projections
reflect the long-term shift from aircraft to missiles, including the
replacement of existing missiles with more advanced types. The relative
decline in aircraft procurement is offset in part by increased expendi
tures for missile and space components which are also made by the air
craft industry (industry 60). Expenditures for missiles, space and other
ordnance (including anti-missile missiles) made in industry 13, ordnance
and accessories, are projected to increase as a proportion of total pur
chases. Purchases from industry 51, computers; industry 57, electronic
components; industry 59, motor vehicles; and industry 77, medical, educa
tional, service and nonprofit organizations are all projected to increase
as a proportion of the total. Purchases from the chemical industry (in
dustry 27), a major supplier of materials to the Atomic Energy Commission,
is projected to decline as a proportion of total expenditures. This re
sults from the decline of this program relative to other Federal Govern
ment programs.
24/ These estimates of Federal Government expenditures do not include
current operating expenses of government enterprises such as the Post Office
which sell their services or products and are considered part of the "pri
vate" sector in the national income accounts. However, capital expenditures
by government enterprises are included in general government expenditures
for goods and services.
kl
Two special aspects of the estimates of Federal expenditures should
be noted. One is the previously mentioned modification of industry 74,
research and development, which has been modified so that the purchases
by the Federal Government of research and development are treated as a
direct sale from the producing industry to the purchaser. The 1958
estimates have been modified to reflect this change. Two, in the national
income accounts, food and clothing supplied to the Armed Forces are con
sidered a supplement to the pay of military personnel. The imputed value
of the food and clothing are included as part of the compensation of gov
ernment employees, classified in industry 84, government industry. The
compensation of government employees is included in total personal income
and the food and clothing supplied to the military are considered as part
of personal consumption expenditures. The direct purchases of these items,
therefore, are not shown as part of the Federal Government bill of goods,
but they are included in personal consumption expenditures.
State and local government. As previously indicated in chapter III,
State and local government expenditures are projected to increase substan
tially more than Federal Government expenditures for goods and services.
The State and local government expenditures, which amounted to $55.6 bil
lion in 1965 are projected to increase to about $73.5 to $75.5 billion by
1970. The $18 to $20 billion increase in expenditures, in constant
dollar terms, would be about three times as much as the increase in Fed
eral Government expenditures for goods and services over the same period.
Expenditures for education, which accounted for almost 40 percent of
all State and local government expenditures for goods and services in 1965,
are projected to increase substantially over the next 5 years. This re
flects the increase in enrollment at all levels of education and particu
larly in higher education. The increase in expenditures for higher edu
cation is due to a number of factors: (a) completion of the educational
cycle as the children born during the early post-World War II years grow
up and increasing numbers go on to college; (b) a higher proportion of
students are expected to finish high school and enter college; and (c) a
continuation of the shift in enrollment from private schools and colleges
to public institutions. Public colleges and universities may be enrolling
about 70 percent of all students in 1970, compared to less than 60 percent
in 1960. A substantial part of the increase in higher education will be
in junior or community colleges.
Elementary and secondary school enrollment is also projected to
increase, but not at as rapid a rate as the enrollment in higher insti
tutions. The estimates do attempt to take account of the impact of the
Head Start Program and the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965.
Education expenditures are higher in the high service model by about $1.5
billion than in the basic models.
239-877 0 - 6 6 - 4
42
The next largest category of expenditures, highways, accounts for
almost 20 percent of State and local government expenditures. This cat
egory is projected to grow at a somewhat higher rate than in the past,
as the Federal Interstate Highway Program continues through the remainder
of the decade and into the early 1970*s.
Expenditures for public health, hospitals, and sanitation, which
account for about 9 percent of total State and local expenditures, are
projected to increase at a more rapid rate, due in part, to the impact
of Medicare and other Federal aid programs. Much of the recent increases
in hospital and nursing home construction and operation has been in the
private sector. More of this may be undertaken by the public sector dur
ing the remainder of the 1960's, however. Here, too, the high service
model implies a higher level of expenditures for this function than in
the basic model.
Expenditures for conservation and natural resources, including parks
and recreation, are projected to continue the very rapid increases wit
nessed during the period since 1958. Expenditures may be further accel
erated if Federal aid programs in these areas are fully implemented.
Functions such as police, fire, and other public administrative
activities will Increase at higher rates than in the past. Population
growth and the continuing rural-urban and suburban shift in population
are the primary reasons.
The projections of the various functions of State and local govern
ment, distributed into purchases by producing industry and combined into
a final demand "bill of goods," are shown in tables IV-4 and 5. About
45 percent of the projected total expenditures for goods and services in
1970 is for compensation of government employees. This is a decline from
the 1962 and 1965 ratios, both about 47 percent. New construction would
increase somewhat from 1962, to about 29 percent of total expenditures.
Maintenance construction is projected to decline to 7 percent of the total.
The remaining purchases would account for about 20 percent of the
total. They are broadly distributed among a wide variety of industries,
primarily food, furniture, printing and publishing, chemicals, petroleum
products, motor vehicles, office supplies, and various services. These
services include transportation, telephone, electricity and other utili
ties, trade, real estate, and business services.
The relatively high proportion of State and local government expend
itures that would be accounted for by payrolls and construction (80 per
cent) is in sharp contrast to Federal Government expenditures for these
purposes, accounting for only about 44 percent of the total.
^3
The shift in relative importance from Federal to State and local
government expenditures would result in an increasing proportion of total
government expenditures for goods and services going to employee compen
sation and construction. A smaller share would be accounted for by direct
purchases from other major producing industries in the economy. The im
pact of this shift is reflected in the employment projections discussed in
the concluding section of the bulletin.
Investment
Residential Construction. Turning to the private domestic invest
ment area, the projection of total residential construction is distribu
ted into types of residential construction, such as single- and multi
family dwellings, etc. Consistent with the projection of increased new
family formation during the latter part of the decade, apartment con
struction is projected to increase faster than single-family housing.
Nonhousekeeping units (hotels, motels, etc.) will be the fastest growing
element of private residential construction. Its growth over the latter
part of the decade, however, will be somewhat reduced from that during
the earlier years of the decade.
Plant and equipment. Investment in nonresidential plant and equip
ment is distributed into detailed components by a series of successive
approximations in which the results of alternative approaches are brought
into balance. This approach is followed because the projection of demand
for different types of equipment and construction requires information on
the relative rates of increase among various industries, each with dif
ferent patterns of capital expenditures. The rate of growth of the steel
industry may be quite different from that of the food industry, and each
industry may require substantially different levels of capital expendi
tures and types of equipment to provide for expansion of capacity. In
the initial stage of the models, however, the relative changes in indus
try output and their associated capital expenditures are unknown.
The procedure followed is to develop initial projections of the
various types of equipment, based on past trends and information on pro
spective demand for some categories of equipment. These projections are
modified later in the models when estimates of industry output require
ments, with their implied differential growth rates, are derived. The
growth rates are then used as the starting point for the derivation of
equipment expenditures. The projections of equipment expenditures by
purchasing industry are developed by applying the industry growth rates
to estimated industry capital expenditures for equipment during the re
cent period. The projected equipment purchases are then converted to
output requirements from capital goods producing industries through the
use of a special capital flow table developed by the Division of Economic
Growth, BLS. The capital flow table shows the detailed distribution of
bb
capital purchases classified by producing and consuming industries, con
sistent with the new input-output table.25/ As part of the procedure, the
major changes in capital input patterns are projected to 1970.
The derived projections of equipment expenditures, classified by
producing industry, are then compared to the initial detailed projections
of equipment expenditures. If there are substantial differences between
the two, a new "bill of goods" for plant and equipment expenditures is
developed. This is used as part of a revised sequence of input-output
computations. The projections of capital expenditures developed in this
bulletin reflect several rounds of such successive approximations.26/
A similar procedure is used in the development of projections of
various types of private nonresidential construction.
The detailed "bill of goods" for fixed private domestic investment,
covering private plant and equipment expenditures and residential con
struction is shown in tables IV-6 and 7. The equipment expenditures are
classified by producing industry. The construction expenditures, although
developed in some detail, are combined into an aggregate estimate for the
purpose of presentation in the final demand tables. However, the detail
is retained in the actual computations used to derive the requirements
for various types of construction materials. The methods used are dis
cussed in chapter V.
Producer durable equipment. As indicated in chapter III, the dis
tribution of total plant and equipment expenditures assumes a continua
tion of the increase in expenditures for producer durable equipment rela
tive to nonresidential construction. Within the equipment category, the
largest share of expenditures will continue to be made up of motor vehi
cles (trucks and business use of automobiles). The greatest increase
relative to other types of equipment would be in the projected demand
for computers and office machines (industry 51), which represents a
continuation of past trends. Electrical transmission and distribution
equipment (industry 53), photographic equipment (industry 63), and ser
vice industry machines (industry 52) are also projected to increase
relative to other categories. The relative increase in photographic
25/ The capital flow table will be published in a separate report
which will provide a detailed description of the methodology used in
developing the estimates.
26/ The projections of capital expenditures are based, in part, on
preliminary estimates developed by Jack Faucett Associates, Silver Spring,
Md.
^5
equipment is due in part to the growth in demand for photocopy machines.
Service machine growth reflects expansion of merchandising through vend
ing machines. Metalworking machinery, special industrial machinery, and
general industry machinery (industries 47, 48, and 49) are projected, in
the aggregate, to remain about the same proportion as in recent years.
The modernization of railroad equipment (industry 61) is a major factor
underlying the relative increase in this category of expenditures.
Although increasing in absolute dollar terms, engines and turbines, (in
dustry 43) and farm machinery (industry 44) are projected to follow the
past trend and to decline as proportions of the total expenditures for
equipment.
Wholesale trade (industry 69) and transportation (industry 65),
representing the margin between producers' and purchasers* value are
projected to increase as a proportion of total expenditures for fixed
investment, because of the shift in fixed investment toward equipment
and away from construction, which has no trade or transportation margin.
Nonresidential construction. The projections of nonresidential
construction indicate that public utility construction and, to a lesser
extent, commercial buildings (offices, stores, etc.) will be the main
growth categories over the next 5 years. Within the utility group, elec
tric utility and telephone construction are the main categories showing
growth.
Industrial plant is projected to continue to be the largest single
category of nonresidential construction, but its growth will not be as
rapid as in the past. Other nonresidential construction is projected to
increase only moderately, partly on the basis of the assumption that, for
the major category, education, there will be a shift toward construction
by State and local governments.
Inventory change. Change in inventories, classified by producing
industry, is projected by assuming the inventory change for each indus
try in 1962 moved with the output change derived by the model. The pro
jected inventory change for each industry does not represent a signifi
cant proportion of total output for the industry. For this reason, and
because the method used is admittedly crude, the estimates are not shown
separately; they are included in table IV-8, total private domestic in
vestment .
Personal Consumption
By far, the largest component of final demand is personal consump
tion expenditures--accounting for about 65 percent of total demand. Ex
penditures for personal consumption are projected on the basis of over
80 consumption equations or "functions" developed for the individual items
of consumption as shown in the national income and product accounts. The
46
consumption functions were developed by Prof. Hendrik Houthakker and
Dr. Lester D. Taylor for the Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard
University.27/ The estimating equations are based on time series of con
stant dollar expenditures for the individual items, converted to a per
capita basis, covering the historical period since 1929. The demand
function for each item of expenditure is designed to describe the in
fluence of total purchasing power (as measured by per capita personal
consumption expenditure in constant dollars on all items). It also
measures any other relevant variables, in particular, the price of the
item. In most cases, the demand function is dynamic in the sense that
it allows the effect of a change in any explanatory variable to be dis
tributed over time. Thus, a change in income may not have its full im
pact on the consumption of housing services until a fairly long adjust
ment period has elapsed. On the other hand, a change in income may have
a strong temporary effect on the purchase of a durable good. This might
occur when consumers attempt to bring their inventories of that durable
in line with a new level of income. Thus, an increase in income will
initially have a strong impact on durables and a relatively smaller one
on other goods and services.
Both of these phenomena can be captured by the same general form of
estimating equation. This form is one in which per capita consumption
of an item is a function of; (a) past consumption of the item, (b) the
level and change in total consumption of all items, (c) past total con
sumption, and (d) possibly other variables. This dynamic approach gives
reasonably satisfactory results when applied to data since 1929 (exclud
ing the war years). Total consumption of all items is, by far, the most
important explanatory variable. Relative prices appear in about half of
the equations. In addition, one or two other variables appear in some
of the equations. It is important to note that projections from this
type of behavioral model do not necessarily agree with straightforward
trend extrapolations.
The equations for each of the separate categories of consumer
expenditures are balanced with the projected total consumer expenditures.
This is accomplished by using the elasticities for each of the equations
as the factor for prorating the difference between the sum of the indi
vidual consumption equation and the projected total consumer expendi
tures. The functions and projections derived from these equations have
been reviewed and in some instances modified by the staff of the Division
of Economic Growth. In addition, the projections have been adjusted for
consistency with recent revisions in the historical series on personal
consumption expenditures.
A final stage in the estimating procedure is the conversion of the
projections from groups of products and services to the input-output in
dustry classification system. This is done by a set of conversion factors,
27/ Hendrik Houthakker and Lester D. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the
United States, 1929-1970 (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press,
1966).
47
developed by the Office of Business Economics as part of the input-output
study.28/ When an item of personal consumption expenditures consists of
a single commodity, the demand for that item represents demand from a
single input-output industry. This occurs, for example, with the demand
for electricity and gas which in both cases is directly transferable into
demand for the output of an industry defined as "electric, gas, water and
sanitary services." On the other hand, when an item is composed of a
broad group of commodities, it is usually necessary to separate the demand
for that category into demand from several input-output industries. To
illustrate, the demand for the item "shoes and other footwear" must be
distributed among demand from the leather products industry, the rubber
products industry, and imported footwear.
In some instances, the factors used to distribute demand for a cat
egory have been modified to take account of the trend in the industrial
composition of individual consumption items. For example, the producing
industry mix of expenditures for food has been modified to reflect the
trend toward more purchases of processed food and less direct purchases
from the agricultural sector. In another instance, consumer demand for
fuel oil and coal--both Included in one consumption item--has been ad
justed to reflect the increased demand from the petroleum refining indus
try and the decline in the demand from the coal mining industry.
In estimating personal consumption expenditures, a different treat
ment is used for personal remittances-in-kind to foreigners and expendi
tures of foreign visitors in the United States for food, lodging, enter
tainment, etc., from that used in the national income accounts and in the
original input-output table. In the latter data, such expenditures are
included in the commodity or industry detail of personal consumption ex
penditures. However, such expenditures are also included in exports.
To avoid double counting, these remittances and foreign visitor expendi
tures are deducted in total from personal consumption expenditures. This
lump sum deduction is shown as a negative entry in industry 85, rest of
the world in the original input-output table.
In this study, this deduction is made on an individual industry
basis. This treatment eliminates the need for a single negative entry
in industry 85. The 1958 data have been modified to reflect this change.
The projections are developed initially in purchasers* value and
then, as for all the other categories of final demand, they are converted
to producers* value, based on the 1958 proportions of transportation and
28/ Nancy W. Simon, "Personal Consumption Expenditures in the 1958
Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business, October 1965, pp. 7-20, 28.
1+8
trade margins. The margins are aggregated and included as separate
purchases from the trade and transportation industries in the final
demand "bill of goods" for personal consumption. In some instances,
the 1958 margins have been modified to reflect more recent information.
The projections of consumer demand, classified by producing industry,
are shown in tables IV-9 to 11.
In order to put the projections of personal consumption expenditures
into broader historical perspective, they have been aggregated to the
level of detail usually shown in the national income constant dollar
table for personal consumption expenditures. The table shows consumption
expenditures for three major groups--durables, nondurables, and services-and 11 subgroups. The estimates of expenditures are in purchasers* value,
whereas the input-output "bill of goods" is in producers* value, with the
trade margins and transportation charges shown separately. The estimates
(see table IV-10) cover selected years during the postwar period and the
1970 projections.
The comments which follow are based on both the consolidated table
and the more detailed ,fbill of goods" table for personal consumption
expenditures.
During most of the postwar period, as income per capita increased,
the composition of consumption expenditures has been changing. An in
creasing proportion of the total has been going to services, particularly
housing. This is associated with a secular decline in the proportion
accounted for by nondurable expenditures, e.g., food and clothing. Ex
penditures for durables, the most volatile element in total consumer de
mand, have varied, with no evidence of any long-term trend. Within the
past few years, durable expenditures, particularly for automobiles, have
begun to increase as a proportion of total consumption expenditures.
In general, the basic model projections show a continuation of past
trends. Expenditures for services increase from 38.5 percent of total
consumer demand in 1965 to about 40 percent in 1970. Durable goods in
crease somewhat, from 16.6 to 16.9 percent. The downward trend in non
durable goods is projected to persist, declining from about 45 percent
in 1965 to 43 percent in 1970.
Within these aggregates, however, there are varying trends with
important implications for differential impact on industry employment.
The decline in the proportion of nondurable expenditures is the
result of the projected drop in the share of food and clothing, which
more than offsets relative increases in purchases of gasoline and "other
nondurables." Major components of the "other" group are drugs and cos
metics and semidurable house furnishings. These are expected to increase
their share of total consumption expenditures.
49
The small increase in the proportion of durable expenditures also
reflects the net impact of divergent trends. Automobile expenditures,
although continuing to increase in absolute dollar terms, are projected
to decline from the very high proportion reached in 1965. However, ex
penditures for furniture, household appliances, color television sets,
and other consumer durables are projected to increase sufficiently to
raise somewhat the share of total durables.
The services aggregate covers the most heterogeneous group of activ
ities, including housing, transportation, medical services, laundries,
and private education. The housing portion of the total, consisting of
space rental values, is projected to increase. This is consistent with
the increases in the home-oriented expenditures in the other expenditure
classes. The small increase in the household operation portion obscures
the substantial rise projected in the share of electricity, gas, and
telephone, because it also includes a projected decline in the domestic
service ratio. In transportation, the decline in the historical trend
is expected to be reversed. Increasing air travel and certain automobileassociated costs included in services are expected to overcome the effect
of declines in expenditures for other forms of transportation.
An important element of the "other services" group is composed of
several types of expenditures concerned with medical care. The projec
tions for these generally follow the pattern of large increases in con
stant dollar expenditures for hospital care and medical insurance in
recent years. The share of personal services in total consumer demand
is projected to decline, while expenditures for recreation and private
education will increase.
Because of the continued shift away from goods and toward services
in the basic models, trade and transportation associated with the hand
ling of consumer goods are projected to decline somewhat, as a proportion
of total consumer demand.
In interpreting the results summarized above, two considerations
should be kept in mind: one, the observations refer to the changing share
of individual items in total consumption expenditures--not to changes in
the dollar level of expenditures; two, the differential changes reflect
constant dollar estimates.
It should be noted that the projections of consumption expenditures
in the basic 4- and 3-percent unemployment models are based on the esti
mating equations for the 82 individual items of consumption. The con
sumption estimates for the high durable and high service alternatives are
derived by applying the consumption patterns within the three major groups-durables, nondurables, and services--developed in the basic models--to new
levels of expenditures for the three groups in the alternative models.
There is one modification, however. The high service model provides for
more than proportionate increases in private educational and medical
services.
50
Net Exports
The detailed projections of exports and imports of goods and ser
vices are derived by distributing into input-output industry detail the
estimates made by the Office of Business Economics for seven major cat
egories .29/
The distribution of estimates for the seven major categories into
approximately 80 industries was made on the basis of 1958-65 trends and
a review of the shifts in the relationship of specific imports and exports
to domestic production during this period.
The estimates for intermediate imports, however, are left undistri
buted, because the input-output relationships contain coefficients for
imports of intermediate goods. Therefore, these relationships generate
their own requirements for imports. These derived import estimates are
compared with the intermediate imports incorporated in the initial final
demand ''bill of goods." If there are major differences, import coeffi
cients or the level of projected imports may be modified. The computa
tions are repeated until the generated and estimated imports are in
balance.
The 1970 projections of U.S. exports and imports suggest that the
ratio of net exports (gross exports less gross imports) of goods and
services to the gross national product would be moderately higher than
those of most recent years. It would be about equal to the high ratio
of 1964. Gross exports in 1970 may be expected to constitute about the
same share of GNP as in 1965, while the import proportion may be lower.
The anticipated greater expansion in exports than in imports is based on
(a) the assumption of continued competitiveness of U.S. products in world
markets, (b) the return to a relatively higher rate of growth in foreign
countries than in the past few years resulting in increased imports from
the United States, and (c) the continued shift in the United States to
ward services and away from goods, requiring less imports.
The merchandise and nonmerchandise components of the net export
balance are likely to increase at about the same rate from 1965 to 1970.
The net merchandise export balance may account for about two-thirds of
the total balance in 1970, about the same as in 1965. The merchandise
share of the overall balance, however, has moved steadily downward since
1959, and was at a low point in 1965.
The net export balance on nonmerchandise transactions stems largely
from increased royalty receipts and income from investments abroad. It
has accounted for an increasing proportion of the total export balance
in recent years and may be expected to hold at the 1965 share in 1970-about one-third of the total.
29/ Evelyn M. Parrish, op. cit., p. 34.
51
Industry structure of exports. The projected industry composition
of gross exports indicates that products of manufacturing industries in
1970 may be expected to account for a greater proportion of total exports.
It is projected to be nearly 50 percent, compared with about 45 percent
in 1962. Computers, aircraft, and communications and scientific instru
ments are projected to show the greatest rate of increase from 1962 to
1970. Engines and machinery, particularly metalworking machines may also
bulk large in 1970 exports. Foreign sales of nondurable manufactured
commodities and agricultural products and services are estimated to ex
pand at a slower pace. Mining products are expected to consist of about
the same share of total exports as in 1962.
Industry structure of imports.30/ Changes in the 1970 projected
industry composition of imports of goods and services from those in 1962
generally parallel those outlined for exports. However, imports of non
durable manufactured products (except food) and durable commodities are
also expected to expand significantly. Imports of agricultural products
and processed food in 1970 make up a smaller portion of the total than
in 1962.
Among the durable manufacturing industry sectors, imports of auto
mobiles and other transportation equipment, steel, radios, television
sets, and lumber are expected to increase their share of total Imports
in 1970. Advances in the nondurable sector (excluding food) are fairly
widespread over a number of industries. Changes in the share of total
imports for any individual industry are expected to be small.
Payments to foreign freight carriers are expected to rise sharply
from 1962 to 1970. They constitute the principal change anticipated in
imports of services.
Imports assigned to final demand sectors are estimated to account
for a smaller share of total imports in 1970 than in 1962. The projec
ted decline in purchases abroad by the Department of Defense, the Atomic
Energy Commission (for uranium), and other Federal Government agencies
more than offset the sizable expansion in personal consumption expendi
tures on imported goods and services, including those on foreign travel.
The reduction in defense expenditures abroad assumes that there is no
major military action in 1970.
30/ Imports discussed here cover both types: (a) those "directly al
located" to the consuming industry or final demand categories; and (b)
"transferred" types assigned to domestic industries producing goods and
services for which these imports are substitutes.
52
Import coefficients. The 1970 projections of input-output relation
ships are discussed in the following chapter. The projections for import
coefficients— industry requirements for imports per dollar of output-are
discussed in this section, since they are related to the analysis of 1970
imports.
The 1970 estimates of import coefficients are based on a review and
analysis of past trends in the relationships of imports to domestic out
put. Changes from 1962 to 1970 are generally small except in a few in
dustries. The principal coefficient changes are described below.
The projected lower import coefficient in the agricultural sector
in 1970 stems from the sharp reduction in the use of foreign farm work
ers. Imports of fishery products are estimated to constitute an increas
ing portion of total supplies in 1970, but the rate of increase is expec
ted to be somewhat less than from 1958-62.
In the mining sector, imports of iron ore are likely to be a slightly
lower share of total output in 1970 than in 1962 (but much higher than
in 1958) as processed low-grade domestic ore becomes available in increas
ed quantities. The requirements of the chemical and fertilizer mineral
mining industry for imported sulphur, potash, and similar materials, how
ever, are likely to be somewhat greater in 1970 than in the recent past.
Projected increases in the relationship of imports to total output
in the manufacturing area are significant in four industries— lumber, in
dustrial leather, aircraft, and farm machinery. The higher import coef
ficient in lumber (including plywood) is linked to the anticipated large
rise by 1970 in residential construction, which accounts for about threefourths of total U.S. lumber consumption. Imports of lumber, continuing
past trends, may be expected to constitute an increased share of total
supply by 1970, as domestic requirements expand sharply.
In industrial leather, the projected continued sluggishness of do
mestic output led to greater reliance on imported supplies and to con
tinued substitution of rubber, plastics, and other fabrics for leather.
In addition, demand for imported specialty leather— calf, kip, goat,
etc.— is expected to display further growth to 1970.
Similarly, the higher import coefficient projected for the aircraft
industry in 1970 reflects a moderate increase in imports and stability
in the industry's output. Exports of aircraft, however, are projected
to expand rapidly. The net export balance may, therefore, be consider
ably higher in 1970 than in either 1958 or 1962. These foreign trade
data relate primarily to civilian aircraft. However, nearly three-fifths
of the output of this industry consists of military aircraft. Production
53
of the latter is expected to drop as military expenditures shift from
aircraft to missiles. This is the primary factor behind the projected
slight decline in output of this industry from 1962 to 1970. Thus, a
higher import coefficient is based on imported civilian aircraft's re
lationship to domestic output of civilian and military aircraft.
The import coefficient for farm machinery in 1970 continues the
slow upward trend evident from 1958-1962. Component parts from U.S.owned plants in Canada and the United Kingdom may be imported in in
creased quantities for incorporation in final products produced domes
tically.
Net Export "Bill of Goods"
The "bill of goods” for net exports is shown in table IV-12. The
detailed entries reflect gross exports of goods and services from each
producing industry. Consistent with the treatment of imports in the
input-output table, gross imports for intermediate and final demand sec
tors are shown only in the aggregate as a negative entry in industry 80,
imports.
Supplementary estimates of purchases by the final demand sectors of
imported goods and services, such as bananas and other types of food,
liquor, apparel, household appliances, foreign travel, etc., are shown
in the aggregate as purchases from imports in the "bill of goods" for
consumption expenditures in tables IV-9 and 11. Military expenditures
abroad are shown in the aggregate as purchases from imports in the dis
tribution of Federal Government purchases, tables IV-2 and 3.
Intermediate imports of specific categories of materials, products,
and services are generated by the models through the use of the import
coefficients previously discussed. They are not shown separately in the
tables, but are included as part of total imports. They are deducted
from total exports in order to derive the net export estimate.
In this study, as previously mentioned, the detailed export esti
mates differ in their treatment of personal remittances-in-kind to for
eigners and expenditures by foreigners in the United States, from that
shown in the original 1958 input-output table. In that table, such ex
ports are shown only in total in industry 85, rest of the world. In
this study, such exports are distributed among the individual producing
industries and deducted from industry 85. The original 1958 data have
been revised to incorporate these modifications.
5^
Total Final Demand
The last stage in the development of the final demand projections
is the consolidation of the detailed projections for each component of
final demand into a single "bill of goods" covering total final demand.
The total "bill of goods" is shown in tables IV-13 and 14. The detailed
final demand projections, as shown in these tables, are used along with
the industry employment table to derive 1970 employment requirements.
In addition to providing an important element in the whole sequence
of projections leading up to the employment estimates, the final demand
estimates are useful in themselves. They provide information on the
changing structure of final demand.
Analysis of changing patterns of final demand may be obscured, how
ever, by the large amount of detail shown in the total "bill of goods"
tables. In order to highlight the major changes in the composition of
final demand, the detailed estimates have been aggregated into broad
sector detail as shown in table IV-15. In addition, in order to provide
some indication of developments since 1962 (the last year for which a
detailed set of final demand estimates are available), preliminary esti
mates of final demand for 1965 have been developed and are also included
in this table.
The summary tables include an adjustment for imports which needs to
be clarified. GNP excludes the value of all imports. Final demand ex
penditures for various goods and services, however, implicitly include
the value of all intermediate imports embodied in final products (e.g.,
imported iron ore used ultimately to make automobiles). They explicitly
cover those imports which are directly allocated to final demand (e.g.,
imported shoes). In order to balance out to the total GNP, the aggregate
value of all imports is shown as a negative item at the bottom of the
table.
Finally, in evaluating the changes in the percentage distribution
of final demand (see tables IV-14 and 15), it should be kept in mind
that relatively small changes may represent substantial differences in
absolute dollar terms.
Specifically, with potential final demand in 1970 equal to $750$760 billion, an increase in an industry*s share of GNP by only 1 percent,
e.g., from 10 percent in 1965 to 11 percent in 1970 would add $7.5 billion
more to the final demand for that industry*s output than it otherwise
would have been. An increase in the share of only one-tenth of 1 percent
is equivalent to an extra three-quarters of a billion dollars. With this
caution regarding seemingly small changes in the industrial distribution
of final demand, what do the tables show?
55
Industrial composition of final demand. The change in the indus
trial composition of total final demand reflects the combined influence
of two factors: (2) the change in the relative importance of consumption,
investment, and the other components of final demand; and (b) the shift
in the composition of expenditures within each component of final demand.
The analysis which follows, on the changing industrial composition
of the total "bill of goods," takes into account both of these factors.
The analysis is based primarily on the summary tables, because it pro
vides a more recent reference point. It also highlights the major changes
in the industrial distribution of final demand.
Basic models. Direct purchases by final demand categories from the
agricultural and mining sectors account for a very small proportion of
total final demand. Their share is projected to decline even further by
1970. The decline in the share of final demand by these two sectors is
due to the relative decline in the projected exports of agricultural and
mining products as a proportion of potential GNP. In addition, both sec
tors are affected by the continuing relative decline in direct consumer
demand for the output of these sectors, particularly mining (coal).
The construction sector has been declining as a proportion of final
demand in the recent past. It has been estimated in the basic models,
however, that construction will increase its share of final demand, from
about 11.3 percent in 1965 to about 11.7 percent in 1970. This increase
in the construction sector's portion comes largely from the projected
increase in demand for new construction by the public sector. Private
demand is expected to have only a moderate influence in the construction
industry's share.
The manufacturing share, which constituted over 38 percent of final
demand in 1965, is projected to decline to slightly above 37 percent in
1970, distributed almost equally between durable and nondurable goods.
The decline in the durable goods share is due largely to the relative
decline in Federal Government purchases of durable goods and the relative
decline in the change in durable goods inventories from the very high ra
tio in 1965.
Within the durable goods share of final demand, there are divergent
changes in the composition of demand. (See table IV-15.) For example,
the demand for office and computing machines, industry 51, and for radio,
television, and communications equipment, industry 56, is estimated to
increase substantially relative to other categories of durable products.
The relative decline in expenditures for military aircraft is projected
to more than offset the increase in civilian aircraft.
The decline in the nondurable goods share primarily represents a
continuation of the long-term decline in the proportion of the consumer
dollar expenditure for food and apparel.
56
Transportation accounts for only a small part of total final demand,
about 3 percent. Its share does not change in direct proportion to the
change in final demand for goods, because it is related to the transpor
tation of persons as well as goods. In fact, the share of transportation
in all the models is about the same, because of roughly offsetting changes
in personal transportation and the transportation of goods.
On the other hand, activity in trade, which accounts for nearly 15
percent of total final demand, is almost entirely related to the hand
ling of goods. In the basic model, it declines as a proportion of the
total) corresponding to the reduction in the share accounted for by the
demand for manufactured products.
Communications and public utilities, finance and insurance, real
estate (housing), and other services are all projected to increase their
share. The primary reason being an increase in consumer demand for the
output of these sectors. In the aggregate, the increase in these sectors
is from almost a quarter of total GNP in 1962 to more than 26 percent in
1970.
General government, which represents the constant dollar compensa
tion of government employees (excluding Post Office, local transit oper
ations, and other "enterprises” activities) is projected to continue to
decline as a proportion of total final demand. This is consistent with
the earlier projection (table II-l) that the compensation of general
government employees (in constant dollars) would Increase about 3.2 to
3.5 percent a year between 1965 and 1970, whereas the GNP (total final
demand) is projected to increase about 4.3 to 4.5 percent a year.
Final demand imports as well as total imports are projected to
decline from their relatively high proportions in 1965.
Alternative models. The alternative models do introduce variations
in the sector mix of final demand, particularly in construction; durable
manufacturing; trade; finance, insurance and real estate; and other ser
vices (which include personal and business services, private educational
and medical services).
The high durable alternative assumes continuation, with some modera
tion, of the recent high rates of increase for consumer durables and in
vestment in plant and equipment. Thus, in this model, the greatest vari
ation from the basic 4-percent model would be in durable goods manufac
turing. The difference between the models (18.4 percent for the basic
model compared with 19.5 percent for the alternative) amounts to a full
percentage point of final demand. This is equivalent to about $7.5 bil
lion or an average annual rate of increase between 1965 and 1970 of 3.7
percent a year in the basic 4-percent model to 4.9 percent a year in the
high durable model.
57
The shares of construction and trade are also increased, but pro
portionately less than for durable manufacturing. The increase for
construction is dampened by the fact that residential construction and
construction expenditures by government are kept at the same levels in
the basic 4-percent and high durable models. The increase in the share
for trade is also moderated since trade involves the handling of both
durable and nondurable goods, even though, in this instance, the share
of nondurable goods remains the same in both models.
The increases for construction, durable manufacturing, and trade in
the high durable model are offset by relative declines in the share of
final demand for the output of communications and public utilities, fi
nance and insurance, real estate (primarily housing), and other services.
Transportation has about the same share, resulting from offsetting changes
in the transportation of goods and of persons.
The government constant dollar payroll share increases somewhat in
the high service model, with all the increase in State and local govern
ment .
The high service model assumes a relative decline in investment in
plant and equipment and relative increases in services. Consumer dura
bles are assumed to maintain about the same share as in the basic model.
The pattern of demand under the high service model reduces the construc
tion and durable manufacturing proportions considerably below the high
durable model. However, these proportions are only moderately below those
of the basic model.
Trade is also reduced relative to the high durable model, but it
remains about the same proportion as in the basic model. This is due to
the fact that consumer durables are not reduced below their share in the
basic model, and nondurable manufacturing maintains a stable proportion.
The major increases In services are in private medical and educa
tional services. There are relatively smaller increases in communica
tions and public utilities, housing, and public educational and medical
services.
239-877 0 - 6 6 - 5
58
Table IV-1.
Industry number and title
AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY, AND FISHERIES:
1 Livestock and livestock products........
2 Other agricultural products
3 Forestry and fishery products...............
4 Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services..
MINING:
5 Iron and ferroalloy ores raining.............
6 Nonferrous metal ores mining................
7 Coal mining...................................
8 Crude petroleum and natural g a s.............
9 Stone and 'clay mining and quarrying.........
10 Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining.....
CONSTRUCTION:
11 New construction.............................
12 Maintenance and repair construction.........
MANUFACTURING:
Ordnance and accessories.....................
Food and kindred products....................
Tobacco manufactures.........................
Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread
mills.
17 Miscellaneous textile goods and floor
coverings.
18 Apparel.......................................
13
14
15
16
Industry Numbering for the 1958 Input-Output Study
Related SIC
codes
(1957 edition)
013,part 014,
0193,part 02,
part 0729
011,012,part
014,0192,0199,
part 02
074,081,082,
084,086,091
071,0723,part
0729,085,098
1011,106
102-105,108,
109
11,12
1311,1321
141,142,144,
145,148,149
147
19
20
21
28
29
30
31
32
33
265
27
281(except
alumina part
of 2819),
286,287,289
282
283,284
285
29
30
311,312
35 Glass and glass products.....................
36 Stone and clay products......................
37 Primary iron and steel manufacturing........
38 Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing....
39 Metal containers.............................
40 Heating,plumbing,and fabricated structural
metal products.
41 Screw machine products,bolts,n u t s ,etc., and
metal stampings.
42 Other fabricated metal products.............
43 Engines and turbines.........................
44 Farm machinery and equipment................
45 Construction,mining,oil field machinery and
equipment
46 Materials handling machinery and equipment..
59
60
61
62
63
65
66
67
68
69
FINANCE,INSURANCE.AND REAL ESTATE:
70 Finance and insurance..................
71 Real estate and rental.................
SERVICES:
72 Hotels and lodging places;personal and repair
services.except automobile repair.
73 Business services.
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
31(except 311,
312)
321-323
324-329
331,332,3391,
3399
2819(alumina
o n ly),
333-336,3392
3411,3491
343,344
81
82
83
84
85
86
Research and development............ ......
Automobile repair and services............
Amusements..................................
Medical.educational services and nonprofit
organizations.
GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES:
Federal Government enterprises............
State and local government enterprises....
IMPORTS:
Gross imports of goods and services......
DUMMY INDUSTRIES:
Business travel,entertainment,and gifts...
Office supplies............................
Scrap, used and secondhand goods..........
SPECIAL INDUSTRIES:
Government industry........................
Rest of the world................. ........
Household industry.........................
Related SIC
codes
(1957 edition)
354
355
356
359
357
358
361,362
363
364
365,366
367
369
371
372
373-375,379
381,382,384,
387
383,385,386
39(except 3992)
40-42,44-47
481,482,489
483
49
5 0 (except m a n
ufacturers
sales offices),
52-59,part 7399
60-64,66,67
6 5 (except 6541
and part 6561)
70,72,76
(except 7694
and 7699)
6541,73(except
7361,7391 and
part 7399),
7694,7699,81,
89(except 8921)
75
78,79
0722,7361,80,
82,84,86,8921
87 Inventory valuation adjustment...................
345,346
342,347-349
(except 3491)
351
352
3531-3533
3534-3537
NOTE: The industry titles in this table are full and
complete titles of the respective sectors in the 1958 Office
of Business Economics input-output system and are consistent
54
55
56
57
58
Metalworking machinery and equipment.........
Special industry machinery and equipment....
General industrial machinery and equipment...
Machine-shop products.........................
Office,computing and accounting machines.....
Service industry machines........ .......... .
Electric transmission and distribution equip
ment,and electrical industrial apparatus.
Household appliances..........................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment.......
Radio,television,and communication equipment.
Electronic components and accessories.... .
Miscellaneous electrical machinery.equipment
and supplies.
Motor vehicles and equipment.... ............
Aircraft and parts............................
Other transportation equipment...............
Professional,scientific,and controlling
instruments and supplies.
Optical,ophthalmic,and photographic equip
ment and supplies.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...................
TRANSPORTATION.COMMUNICATION.ELECTRIC,
GAS,SANITARY SERVICES:
Transportation and warehousing...............
Communications,except radio and television
broadcasting.
Radio and television broadcasting............
Electric,g a s ,w a t e r ,and sanitary services....
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE:
Wholesale and retail trade....................
221-224,226,
228
227,229
19
20
21
22
23
24
Plastics and synthetic materials............
Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations.....
Paints and allied products..................
Petroleum refining and related industries...
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..
Leather tanning and industrial leather
products.
34 Footwear and other leather products.........
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
64
138,part 15,
part 16,part
17,part 6561
Part 15,part
16,part 17
225,23(except
239),3992
239
2 4 (except 244)
244
251
25(except 251)
2 6 (except 265)
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...
Lumber and wood products,except containers..
Wooden containers............................
Household furniture..........................
Other furniture and fixtures................
Paper and allied products,except containers
and boxes.
25 Paper board containers and boxes..... ......
26 Printing and publishing.......... ...........
27 Chemicals and selected chemical products....
Industry number and title
with the sectors in the Interagency Growth Project.
In other
tables in this report, however, some sector titles have been
shortened for space and presentation purposes.
59
Table IV-2.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
-1
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 2/
durables
High 3/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
-3
5
8
8
8
8
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
1,073
205
11
11
11
11
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
-137
-107
-250
-250
-250
-250
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
45
38
71
71
71
71
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
192
283
200
196
196
196
7.
Coal mining............................................
-
56
45
45
45
45
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
1
-
-
-
-
-
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
10
-
-
-
-
-
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
11
2
3
3
3
3
11.
New construction.......................................
3,388
3,448
4,701
4,701
4,701
4,701
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
1,081
1,204
1,504
1,504
1,504
1,504
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
3,329
3,824
4,770
4,770
4,770
4,770
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
55
269
381
372
372
372
15.
Tobacco manufactures..................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s .....
51
34
34
34
34
34
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
5
10
10
10
10
10
18.
Apparel................................................
41
71
104
103
103
103
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
103
77
75
74
74
74
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
-6
-6
-5
-5
-5
-5
21.
Wooden containers......................................
2
12
13
13
13
13
22.
Household furniture....................................
25
42
48
48
48
48
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
26
69
83
81
81
81
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
72
54
69
67
67
67
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
5
88
27
27
27
27
26.
Printing and publishing...............................
92
176
204
202
202
202
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
824
678
570
567
567
567
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
13
32
6
6
6
6
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
150
222
260
252
252
252
30.
Paints and allied products............................
3
13
25
23
23
23
912
1,032
1,032
1,032
1,032
122
31.
Petroleum refining and related Industries............
745
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
130
70
122
122
122
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
23
69
13
12
12
12
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
3
-
-
-
-
-
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
5
3
4
4
4
4
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
118
116
114
113
113
113
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
343
46
45
44
44
44
39.
Metal containers.......................................
18
20
21
21
21
21
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
17
304
324
324
324
324
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
94
79
100
97
97
97
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
132
194
219
218
218
218
233
43.
Engines and turbines...................................
288
220
234
233
233
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
17
11
12
12
12
12
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
84
143
128
127
127
127
See footnotes at end of table.
6o
Table IV-2.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
-
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 2/
durables
High 3/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
139
144
128
128
128
128
47.
Metal working machinery and equipment................
273
227
263
262
262
262
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
33
35
25
24
24
24
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
203
237
203
203
203
203
50.
Machine shop products..................................
44
51
38
38
38
38
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
87
212
344
344
344
344
52.
Service industry machines.............................
73
34
38
37
37
37
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus..........
351
245
240
240
240
240
54.
Household appliances...................................
171
17
19
19
19
19
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
89
19
20
12
12
12
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
1,770
3,190
3,772
3,771
3,771
3,771
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
375
524
635
635
635
635
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
113
62
66
65
65
65
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
490
562
831
826
826
826
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
8,047
8,456
7,892
7,892
7,892
7,892
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
655
943
976
974
974
974
62.
Scientific and controlling instruments...............
658
815
767
762
762
762
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.......
168
123
140
140
140
140
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
41
57
37
36
36
36
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
1,439
1,834
1,700
1,693
1,693
1,693
425
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
169
354
431
425
425
67.
Radio and television broadcasting.....................
-
3
2
2
2
2
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
348
486
539
535
535
535
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
645
989
1,120
1,113
1,113
1,113
70.
Finance and insurance.................................
1
30
46
46
46
46
71.
Real estate and rental................................
112
621
713
708
708
708
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
246
297
372
364
364
364
73.
Business services......................................
492
1,019
1,034
1,032
1,032
1,032
74.
Research and development..............................
372
344
390
390
390
390
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
129
108
151
148
148
148
76.
Amusements.............................................
18
40
52
52
52
52
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
654
697
1,209
1,209
1,209
1,209
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
56
49
62
60
60
60
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
113
210
255
247
247
247
80.
Gross Imports of goods and services..................
2,717
2,799
2,430
2,430
2,430
2,430
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
74
Ill
Ill
109
109
109
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
117
196
-
-
-
-
84.
Government Industry....................................
19,951
21,184
22,014
21,987
21,987
21,987
85.
Rest of the world Industry............................
-307
-895
-750
-750
-750
-750
86.
Household Industry.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
53,594
60,010
63,650
63,500
63,500
63,500
Federal Government have been changed to conform with the treat
ment of research and development (1962 and 1970).
2/ The high durable model assumes continuation of above
average Increases In expenditures for consumer durables and
fixed nonresidentlal Investment.
The high service model assumes a lower than average
Increase In consumer durables and fixed nonresidentlal Invest
ment with the difference made up by Increases In consumer and
3/
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may not
equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business
September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated
by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
61
Table IV-3.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products......................
-.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
2.00
.34
.02
.02
.02
.02
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
-.26
-.18
-.39
-.39
-.39
-.39
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
.08
.06
.11
.11
.11
.11
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
.36
.47
.31
.31
.31
.31
7.
Coal mining............................................
-
.09
.07
.07
.07
.07
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
.02
-
-
-
-
-
10.
Chemical and fertiliser mineral m ining...............
.02
-
-
-
-
-
11.
New construction.......................................
6.32
5.75
7.39
7.40
7.40
7.40
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
2.02
2.01
2.36
2.37
2.37
2.37
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
6.21
6.37
7.49
7.51
7.51
7.51
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
.10
.45
.60
.59
.59
.59
15.
Tobacco manufactures...................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s .....
.10
.06
.05
.05
.05
.05
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
18.
Apparel.................................................
.08
.12
.16
.16
.16
.16
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
.19
.13
.12
.12
.12
.12
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
-.01
-.01
-.01
-.01
-.01
-.01
21.
Wooden containers......................................
-
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
22.
Household furniture....................................
.05
.07
.08
.08
.08
.08
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
.05
.11
.13
.13
.13
.13
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
.13
.09
.11
.11
.11
.11
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
.01
.15
.04
.04
.04
.04
26.
Printing and publishing........... ....................
.17
.29
.32
.32
.32
.32
27.
Chemicals and selected cheaiical products.............
1.54
1.13
.90
.89
.89
.89
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
.02
.05
.01
.01
.01
.01
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
.28
.37
.41
.40
.40
.40
30.
Paints and allied products............................
.01
.02
.04
.04
.04
.04
31.
Petroleum refining and related industries............
1.39
1.52
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.63
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
.24
.12
.19
.19
.19
.19
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
.04
.11
.02
.02
.02
.02
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
.01
-
-
-
-
-
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
.01
-
.01
.01
.01
.01
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
.22
.19
.18
.18
.18
.18
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
.64
.08
.07
.07
.07
.07
39.
Metal containers.......................................
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
.03
.51
.51
.51
.51
.51
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
.18
.13
.16
.15
.15
.15
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
.25
.32
.34
.34
.34
.34
43.
Engines and turbines...................................
.54
.37
.37
.37
.37
.37
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
.03
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
.16
.24
.20
.20
.20
.20
See footnotes at end of table.
62
Table IV-3.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by Federal Government
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
1/
High
durables
High 2/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
.26
.24
.20
.20
.20
.20
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
.51
.38
.41
.41
.41
.41
48.
Special Industry machinery and equipment.............
.06
.06
.04
.04
.04
.04
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
.38
.39
.32
.32
.32
.32
50.
Machine shop products.................................
.08
.08
.06
.06
.06
.06
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
.16
.35
.54
.54
.54
.54
52.
Service Industry machines.............................
.14
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
53.
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus..........
.65
.41
.38
.38
.38
.38
54.
Household appliances...................................
.32
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
.17
.03
.03
.02
.02
.02
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
3.30
6.32
5.93
5.94
5.94
5.94
1.00
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
.70
.87
1.00
1.00
1.00
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
.21
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
.91
.94
1.31
1.30
1.30
1.30
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
15.01
14.09
12.40
12.43
12.43
12.43
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
1.22
1.57
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.53
62.
Scientific and controlling instruments...............
1.23
1.36
1.21
1.20
1.20
1.20
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
.31
.20
.22
.22
.22
.22
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
.08
.09
.06
.06
.06
.06
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
2.69
3.06
2.67
2.67
2.67
2.67
.67
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
.32
.59
.68
.67
.67
67.
Radio and television broadcasting....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
.65
.81
.85
.84
.84
.84
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
1.20
1.65
1.76
1.75
1.75
1.75
70.
Finance and insurance.................................
-
.05
.07
.07
.07
.07
1.11
71.
Real estate and rental................................
.21
1.03
1.12
1.11
1.11
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
.46
.49
.58
.57
.57
.57
73.
Business services......................................
.92
1.70
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.63
74.
Research and development..............................
.69
.57
.61
.61
.61
.61
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
.24
.18
.24
.23
.23
.23
76.
Amusements........................ .....................
.03
.07
.08
.08
.08
.08
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
1.22
1.16
1.90
1.90
1.90
1.90
.09
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
.10
.08
.10
.09
.09
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
.21
.35
.40
.39
.39
.39
80.
Gross Imports of goods and services..................
5.07
4.66
3.82
3.83
3.83
3.83
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
.14
.18
.17
.17
.17
.17
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
.22
.33
-
-
-
-
84.
Government Industry....................................
37.23
35.30
34.59
34.63
34.63
34.63
85.
Rest of the world Industry............................
-.57
-1.49
-1.18
-1.18
-1.18
-1.18
86.
Household industry.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1/
2/
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business. September 1965.
The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
63
Table IV-4.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
3 percent
unemployment
1962
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
11
15
27
27
27
27
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
27
19
35
35
35
35
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
-
-
1
1
1
1
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
-68
-86
-195
-195
-195
-195
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
61
66
118
115
115
115
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.
Coal mining............................................
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
-12
-6
-18
-18
-18
-18
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
12
6
18
18
18
18
11.
New construction.......................................
12,069
13,387
21,975
21,475
21,475
22,315
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
3,339
3,871
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
4
7
13
13
13
13
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
272
304
578
569
569
569
15.
Tobacco manufactures..................................
-
-
1
1
1
1
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s .....
9
10
18
18
18
18
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
1
1
2
2
2
2
18.
Apparel.................................................
92
116
216
212
212
212
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
-
1
1
1
1
1
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
1
1
2
1
1
1
21.
Wooden containers......................................
-
1
1
1
1
1
22.
Household furniture....................................
57
94
166
162
162
169
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
126
226
342
337
337
354
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
6
4
10
10
10
10
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.
Printing and publishing...............................
173
204
475
467
467
501
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
242
322
606
600
600
637
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
179
189
327
326
326
379
30.
Paints and allied products........... .
-
-
-
-
'
-
31.
Petroleum refining and related industries............
382
549
1,060
1,040
1,040
1,040
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
75
129
242
235
235
235
33.
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products...... ...........
2
2
3
3
3
3
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
-
-
-
-
-
11
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
4
6
11
11
11
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
1
2
3
3
3
3
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
-
-
-
-
-
-
39.
Metal containers.......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
5
4
9
9
9
9
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
46
64
106
104
104
117
43.
Engines and turbines..................................
3
6
11
11
11
11
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
17
30
43
43
43
56
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
21
16
40
40
40
40
See footnotes at end of table
6k
Table IV-4.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
3 percent
unemployment
1962
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
50
70
107
105
105
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
5
11
19
19
19
19
48.
Special Industry machinery and equipment.............
30
60
92
90
90
90
132
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
5
9
14
13
13
13
50.
Machine shop products.................................
35
50
76
74
74
103
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
89
214
240
234
234
371
52.
Service industry machines.............................
21
38
64
63
63
63
53.
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus..........
5
10
18
18
18
18
54.
Household appliances...................................
1
1
2
2
2
2
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
8
13
18
18
18
18
62
56
130
128
128
128
-
-
-
-
-
-
56.
Radio, television and coonsinlcation equipment........
57.
Electronic components and accessories........... .
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
33
48
69
68
68
94
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
438
621
1,098
1,078
1,078
1,078
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
38
79
135
135
135
135
62.
Scientific and controlling lnstruaients...............
86
119
202
201
201
220
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
15
29
38
37
37
51
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
179
274
463
452
452
452
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
402
406
826
809
809
891
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
190
263
493
481
481
481
67.
Radio and television broadcasting.....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
486
473
947
921
921
921
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
183
320
602
592
592
566
70.
Finance and insurance..................................
191
210
447
437
437
437
71.
Real estate and rental................................
233
423
742
722
722
722
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
87
-17
128
127
127
127
73.
Business services......................................
555
744
1,339
1,316
1,316
1,386
74.
Research and development..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
83
134
255
249
249
249
76.
Amusements.............................................
-44
-98
-79
-77
-77
-77
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
311
232
428
428
428
508
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
67
105
184
179
179
179
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
6
12
21
21
21
21
80.
Gross imports of goods and services..................
3
4
8
8
8
8
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
132
220
381
371
371
371
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
342
474
732
732
732
732
84.
Government industry....................................
19,078
22,299
33,214
32,772
32,772
33,300
85.
Rest of the world industry............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household industry.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
40,564
47,466
74,700
73,500
73,500
75,500
1/
2/
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual Items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Comswrce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business. September 1965.
The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
65
Table IV-5.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products......................
.03
.03
.04
.04
.04
.04
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
.07
.04
.05
.05
.05
.05
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
-
-
—
-
-
-
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
-.17
-.18
-.26
-.27
-.27
-.26
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.
Coal mining............................................
.15
.14
.16
.16
.16
.15
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
-.03
-.01
-.02
-.02
-.02
-.02
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
.03
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
11.
New construction.......................................
29.75
28.20
29.42
29.22
29.22
29.56
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
8.23
8.16
6.69
6.80
6.80
6.62
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
.01
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
.67
.64
.77
.77
.77
.75
15.
Tobacco................................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls.....
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
18.
Apparel................................................
.23
.24
.29
.29
.29
.28
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
-
-
-
-
-
-
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
21.
Wooden containers......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.
Household furniture....................................
.14
.20
.22
.22
.22
.22
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
.31
.48
.46
.46
.46
.47
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.
Printing and publishing...............................
.43
.43
.64
.64
.64
.66
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
.60
.68
.81
.82
.82
.84
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
.44
.40
.44
.44
.44
.50
30.
Paints and allied products............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
31.
Petroleum refining and related industries............
.94
1.16
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.38
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
.18
.27
.32
.32
.32
.31
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
-
-
-
-
-
-
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
-
-
-
-
-
-
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
-
-
-
-
-
-
39.
Metal containers.......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
-
*
-
-
-
-
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
.11
.13
.14
.14
.14
.15
43.
Engines and turbines..................................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
.04
.06
.06
.06
.06
.07
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
.05
.03
.05
.05
.05
.05
See footnotes at end of table.
66
Table IV-5.
Industrial Composition of Purchases by State and Local Governments
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
1958
Industry number and title
1962
3 percent
unemployment
. 4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
.12
.15
.14
.14
.14
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
.01
.02
.03
.03
.03
.03
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
.07
.13
.12
.12
.12
.12
.17
49.
General industrial machinery and equipment...........
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
50.
Machine shop products.................................
.09
.11
.10
.10
.10
.14
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
.22
.45
.32
.32
.32
.49
52.
Service industry machines.............................
.05
.08
.09
.09
.09
.08
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus..........
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
54.
Household appliances...................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
.02
.03
.02
.02
.02
.02
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
.15
.12
.17
.17
.17
.17
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
-
-
-
-
-
-
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
.08
.10
.09
.09
.09
.12
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.47
1.47
1.43
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
.09
.17
.18
.18
.18
.18
62.
Scientific and controlling instruments...............
.21
.25
.27
.27
.27
.29
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
.04
.06
.05
.05
.05
.07
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...... ....................
.44
.58
.62
.61
.61
.60
65.
Transportation and warehousing....,..................
.99
.86
1.11
1.10
1.10
1.18
.47
.55
.66
.65
.65
.64
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.00
1.27
1.25
1.25
1.22
broadcasting............................
broadcasting...............................
66.
Communications; except
67.
Radio and television
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
1.20
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
.45
.67
.81
.81
.81
.75
70.
Finance and insurance.................................
.47
.44
.60
.59
.59
.58
71.
Real estate and rental................................
.57
.89
.99
.98
.98
.96
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
.21
-.04
.17
.17
.17
.17
73.
Business services......................................
1.37
1.57
1.79
1.79
1.79
1.84
74.
Research and development..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
.02
.28
.34
.34
.34
.33
76.
Amusements.............................................
-.11
-.21
-.11
-.10
-.10
-.10
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
.77
.49
.57
.58
.58
.67
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
.17
.22
.25
.24
.24
.24
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
.01
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
80.
Gross Imports of goods and services..................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
81.
Business travel, entertainment and g ifts .............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
.33
.46
.51
.50
.50
.49
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
.84
1.00
.98
1.00
1.00
.97
84.
Government industry....................................
47.03
46.98
44.46
44.59
44.59
44.11
85.
Rest of the world industry............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household industry.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1/
2/
See footnote 2, table 1V-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projec
tions are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
Table IV-6.
Industrial Composition of Private Fixed Capital Investment
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
_________________________ (Millions of 1958 dollars)________________________
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
3 percent
unemployment
1962
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High
durables
High
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.
Coal mining............................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
-
-
-
-
-
-
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.
New construction.......................................
36,957
41,236
55,932
55,382
57,882
51,982
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
14.
Food and kindred products..... .......................
-
-
T
-
-
-
15.
Tobacco manufactures...................................
-
-
*
-
-
-
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
45
64
78
77
83
77
18.
Apparel.................................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
-
-
-
-
-
-
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
6
6
9
9
9
8
21.
Wooden containers......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.
Household furniture....................................
126
142
247
243
263
228
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
798
1,020
1,647
1,620
1,742
1,516
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
-
-
-
-
-
-
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.
Printing and publishing...............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
30.
Paints and allied products............................
-
-
-
-
-
31.
Petroleum refining and related Industries............
-
-
-
-
-
-
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
52
14
18
18
20
17
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
5
-
-
-
-
-
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
-
-
-
-
-
-
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
-
-
-
-
-
-
39.
Metal containers.......................................
10
11
23
23
25
21
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
708
560
1,036
1,019
1,098
955
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
166
169
290
285
306
267
43.
Engines and turbines...................................
576
474
577
567
610
531
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
1,670
1,532
2,256
2,220
2,389
2,079
45.
Construction, mining and oil field siachinery.........
1,319
1,272
2,531
2,490
2,678
2,331
See footnotes at end of table,
68
Table IV-6,
Industrial Composition of Private Fixed Capital Investment
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
3 percent
unemployment
1962
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
durables
High
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
352
434
699
688
740
644
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
1,153
1,328
2,191
2,156
2,319
2,018
48.
Special Industry machinery and equipment.............
1,468
1,848
2,907
2,860
3,076
2,677
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
1,051
1,141
1,741
1,713
1,844
1,599
50.
Machine shop products.................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
1,016
1,430
3,743
3,683
4,500
3,448
52.
Service industry machines.............................
955
1,243
2,455
2,416
2,599
2,262
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus..........
1,617
1,918
3,371
3,317
3,569
3,106
54.
Household appliances...................................
93
101
210
207
222
194
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
25
39
58
57
61
54
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
1,009
1,634
2,541
2,500
2,689
2,342
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
27
52
92
90
97
84
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
83
125
223
220
237
206
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
3,575
5,917
10,115
9,870
10,480
9,242
60.
Aircraft and parts..... ...............................
358
883
1,379
1,357
1,461
1,271
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
1,178
1,167
2,652
2,610
2,808
2,443
62.
Scientific and controlling Instruments...............
532
704
1,156
1,137
1,224
1,065
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
163
252
593
583
627
546
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
279
381
599
589
633
551
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
507
640
1,142
1,121
1,234
1,038
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
362
469
721
709
772
664
67.
Radio and television broadcasting....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
-
-
-
-
-
-
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
3,747
4,742
8,564
8,410
8,945
7,893
70.
Finance and insurance.................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,250
71.
Real estate and rental............ ....................
1,209
1,100
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
-
-
-
-
-
-
73.
Business services...... ...............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
74.
Research and development..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
76.
Amusements.......... ........ ..........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
-
-
-
-
-
-
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
-
-
-
-
-
-
80.
Gross Imports of goods and services..................
16
21
36
36
33
29
-
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
-822
-668
-632
-632
-625
-638
84.
Government industry....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
85.
Rest of the world Industry............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household Industry.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
62,392
73,399
112,550
111,000
118,000
104,000
1/
2/
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business, September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
69
Table IV-7.
Industrial Composition o£ Private Fixed Capital Investment
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
_________________________ (Percent distribution)_____________________________
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
.
-
-
-
.
.
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
-
-
-
-
-
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
-
-
-
-
-
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
-
-
-
-
-
7.
Coal mining............................................
-
-
-
-
-
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
-
-
-
-
-
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
-
-
-
-
-
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m ining...............
-
-
-
-
-
11.
New construction.......................................
59.23
49.70
49.89
49.05
49.98
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
15.
Tobacco manufactures...................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
56.18
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s .....
-
-
-
-
-
-
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
.07
.09
.07
.07
.07
.07
-
18.
Apparel.................................................
-
-
-
-
-
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
-
-
-
-
-
-
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
21.
Wooden containers......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.
Household furniture....................................
.20
.19
.22
.22
.22
.22
1.46
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
1.28
1.39
1.46
1.46
1.48
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
-
-
-
-
-
-
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.
Printing and publishing..... ......... ................
-
-
-
-
-
-
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
-
-
*
-
-
*
30.
Paints and allied products...........................
-
-
-
*
-
-
31.
Petroleum refining and related Industries............
-
-
-
-
-
-
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
.08
.02
.02
.02
.02
.02
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
.01
-
-
-
-
-
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
-
-
-
-
-
-
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
-
-
-
-
-
-
39.
Metal containers.......................................
.02
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
1.13
.76
.92
.92
.93
.92
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
.27
.23
.26
.26
.26
.26
43.
Engines and turbines...................................
.92
.65
.51
.51
.52
.51
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
2.68
2.09
2.00
2.00
2.02
2.00
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
2.11
1.73
2.25
2.24
2.27
2.24
See footnotes at end of table.
70
Table IV-7.
Industrial Composition of Private Fixed Capital Investment
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970— Continued
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
.56
.59
.62
.62
.63
.62
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
1.85
1.81
1.95
1.94
1.97
1.94
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
2.35
2.52
2.58
2.58
2.61
2.57
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
1.68
1.55
1.55
1.54
1.56
1.54
50.
Machine shop products..................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
1.63
1.95
3.33
3.32
3.81
3.32
52.
Service industry machines.............................
1.53
1.69
2.18
2.18
2.20
2.18
53.
Electric industrial equipatent and apparatus..........
2.59
2.61
3.00
2.99
3.02
2.99
54.
Household appliances...................................
.15
.14
.19
.19
.19
.19
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
.04
.05
.05
.05
.05
.05
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
1.62
2.23
2.26
2.25
2.28
2.25
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
.04
.07
.08
.08
.08
.08
58.
Miscellaneous electrical siachlnery and supplies.....
.13
.17
.20
.20
.20
.20
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..... ....................
5.73
8.06
8.99
8.89
8.88
8.89
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
.57
1.20
1.23
1.22
1.24
1.22
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
1.89
1.59
2.36
2.35
2.38
2.35
62.
Scientific and controlling Instruments...............
.85
.96
1.03
1.02
1.04
1.02
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
.26
.34
.53
.53
.53
.53
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
.45
.52
.53
.53
.54
.53
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
.81
.87
1.01
1.01
1.05
1.00
66.
Communications; except broadcasting.............. .'. ..
.58
.64
.64
.64
.65
.64
67.
Radio and television broadcasting.....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
-
-
-
-
-
-
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
6.01
6.46
7.61
7.58
7.58
7.59
70.
Finance and Insurance..................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
71.
Real estate and rental................................
1.94
1.50
1.20
1.22
1.14
1.20
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services.................
-
-
-
-
-
-
73.
Business services......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
74.
Research and development..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
76.
Amusements.............................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
-
-
-
-
-
-
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
-
-
-
-
-
-
80.
Gross Imports of goods and services............. .
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
.03
-
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
-1.32
-.19
-.56
-.57
-.53
-.61
84.
Government industry....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
85.
Rest of the world Industry............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household Industry.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1/
2/
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2,
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
71
Table IV-8.
Industrial Composition of Gross Private Domestic Investment
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.................... .
601
698
388
388
388
388
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
428
-144
236
236
236
236
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
19
16
34
34
34
34
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
20
14
31
31
31
31
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-23
-5
2
2
2
2
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining..........................
-32
4
12
12
12
12
7.
Coal mining............................................
-22
-17
25
25
25
25
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
-40
21
34
34
34
34
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..... ........... .
4
8
17
17
17
17
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
-1
-
5
5
5
5
11.
New construction.......................................
36,957
41,236
55,932
55,382
57,882
51,982
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
84
-
29
29
29
29
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
248
494
463
463
463
463
15.
Tobacco manufactures...................................
-26
16
10
10
10
10
10.
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m ills.....
-104
148
111
111
111
111
17.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
18
137
143
142
148
142
618
18.
Apparel.................................................
-123
629
618
618
618
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
-1
27
19
19
19
19
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
68
62
69
69
69
68
21.
Wooden containers.............. .......................
-9
18
11
11
11
11
22.
Household furniture....................................
120
177
276
272
292
257
23.
Other furniture and fixtures........... ...............
799
1,025
1,654
1,627
1,749
1,523
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
-3
68
73
73
73
73
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
-1
30
22
22
22
22
26.
Printing and publishing...............................
11
70
78
78
78
78
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
-24
69
65
65
65
65
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
-44
91
99
99
99
99
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
56
142
148
148
148
148
30.
Paints and allied products................ ...........
-4
2
4
4
4
4
31.
Petroleum refining and related Industries............
-186
157
114
114
114
114
90
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
20
85
91
91
93
33.
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.....
-3
-4
5
5
5
5
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
37
102
21
21
21
21
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
-5
14
12
12
12
12
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
28
32
42
42
42
42
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
-160
-102
100
100
100
100
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..... ........
-10
99
112
112
112
112
39.
Metal containers.......................................
23
16
29
29
31
27
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
639
545
1,042
1,025
1,104
961
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
-67
5
13
13
13
13
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
118
268
392
387
408
369
43.
Engines and turbines...................................
516
524
627
617
660
581
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
1,648
1,648
2,374
2,338
2,507
2,197
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
1,246
1,310
2,580
2,539
2,727
2,380
See footnotes at end of table.
72
Table IV-8.
Industrial Composition of Gross Private Domestic Investment
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
3 percent
unemployment
1962
1958
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 1/
durablaa
High 2/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
328
416
734
723
775
679
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
1,022
1,402
2,277
2,242
2,405
2,104
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
1,361
1,860
2,915
2,868
3,084
2,685
49.
General industrial machinery and equipment...........
970
1,209
1,809
1,781
1,912
1,667
50.
Machine shop products..................................
-10
39
33
33
33
33
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
1,001
1,498
3,836
3,776
4,593
3,541
52.
Service Industry machines.............................
919
1,288
2,500
2,461
2,644
2,307
53.
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus..........
1,484
1,973
3,436
3,382
3,634
3,171
54.
Household appliances...................................
29
174
296
293
308
280
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
-4
56
85
84
88
81
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
938
1,805
2,805
2,764
2,953
2,606
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
-21
202
205
203
210
197
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
59
150
254
251
268
237
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
3,046
6,657
10,894
10,649
11,259
10,021
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
96
1,068
1,542
1,520
1,624
1,434
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
1,103
1,309
2,801
2,759
2,957
2,592
62.
Scientific and controlling instruments...............
524
776
1,225
1,206
1,293
1,134
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
168
267
608
598
642
561
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
313
485
712
702
746
664
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
661
783
1,287
1,266
1,379
1,183
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
362
469
721
709
772
664
67.
Radio and television broadcasting.....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
-
-
-
-
-
-
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
3,816
5,213
9,002
8,848
9,383
8,331
70.
Finance and Insurance..................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,209
1,100
1,350
1,350
1,350
1,250
-
71.
Real estate and rental....................... .........
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
-
-
-
-
-
73.
Business services......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
74.
Research and development..............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
-
-
-
-
*
-
76.
Amusements.............................................
22
15
41
41
41
41
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
-
-
-
-
-
-
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
-
-
-
-
-
-
80.
Gross imports of goods and services..................
24
-112
-348
-348
-351
-355
-
81.
Business travel, entertainsmnt and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
-1,028
-701
-632
-632
-625
-638
84.
Government Industry....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
85.
Rest of the world industry............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household industry.....................................
' -
-
-
-
-
-
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-311
269
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
60,901
79,403
118,550
117,000
124,000
110,000
J
1
2/
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE:
Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
73
Table IV-9.
Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
_
Industry number and title
1958
y
3 percent
unemployment
1962
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
High 2/
durables
Basic
model
High 3/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
2,110
1,883
1,651
1,632
1,617
1,638
2.
Other agricultural products...........................
2,428
2,297
2,644
2,608
2,597
2,617
384
3.
Forestry and fishery products.........................
281
301
390
383
382
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores m i ning..........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.
Coal mining............................................
261
186
181
179
178
180
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s .......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
17
21
30
29
28
29
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
1
2
2
2
2
2
-
-
-
11.
New construction.......................................
-
-
-
12.
Maintenance and repair construction..................
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.
Ordnance and accessories..............................
158
201
344
341
353
342
14.
Food and kindred products.............................
45,376
50,547
64,556
63,585
63,356
63,811
15.
Tobacco manufactures..................................
4,249
4,847
6,517
6,419
6,393
6,442
1,193
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls.....
696
825
1,214
1,188
1,206
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
743
909
1,473
1,450
1,582
1,454
18.
Apparel................................................
11,033
12,719
17,789
17,521
17,462
17,583
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
1,101
1,339
1,993
1,965
1,991
1,972
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
149
174
268
263
283
264
21.
Wooden containers......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.
Household furniture....................................
2,416
2,606
4,321
4,258
4,663
4,271
23.
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
129
158
264
260
285
261
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
848
1,039
1,550
1,528
1,522
1,533
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
38
45
66
65
65
65
26.
Printing and publishing...............................
2,444
2,991
4,130
4,066
4,192
4,079
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
213
259
388
384
394
385
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
10
14
20
19
19
19
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
3,704
4,669
8,569
8,441
8,412
8,471
30.
Paints and allied products.... .
18
22
32
31
31
31
31.
Petroleum refining and related Industries............
7,257
8,134
11,685
11,511
11,464
11,552
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
1,308
1,731
2,640
2,601
2,790
2,609
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products......
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products..................
2,594
2,597
2,943
2,887
2,891
2,898
35.
Glass and glass products..............................
130
147
214
211
229
213
36.
Stone and clay products...............................
214
243
349
344
361
345
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................
19
22
28
28
28
28
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
11
13
21
20
22
20
39.
Metal containers.......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
70
84
131
131
143
132
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
249
267
380
374
407
375
42.
Other fabricated metal products.......................
372
451
775
764
807
766
43.
Engines and turbines...... ...........................
126
150
286
282
309
283
44.
Farm machinery and equipment..........................
8
11
18
17
19
17
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
-
-
-
-
-
-
See footnotes at end of table.
239-877 0-66-6
Jk
Table 1V-9.
Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures
1958, 1962, and Projected— Continued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
-
3 percent
unemployment
1962
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 1/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
-
-
-
.
_
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
31
39
64
63
69
63
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
19
24
41
40
44
40
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
-
-
-
-
-
-
50.
Machine shop products..................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
58
73
126
124
136
125
52.
Service Industry machines.............................
247
301
481
473
518
474
-
53.
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus..........
15
18
29
28
30
28
54.
Household appliances...................................
2,371
2,853
5,372
5,288
5,782
5,305
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
313
388
615
605
632
607
56.
Radio, television and communication equlpsmnt........
1,353
1,826
4,428
4,364
4,779
4,377
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
149
201
405
401
439
402
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
260
333
551
545
587
546
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
9,198
13,222
21,095
20,780
22,753
20,843
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
27
33
63
62
68
62
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
725
979
1,662
1,637
1,793
1,642
62.
Scientific and controlling Instruments...............
349
496
723
713
764
716
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
451
612
1,093
1,077
1,149
1,080
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
2,526
3,004
5,306
5,233
5,514
5,251
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
8,568
9,958
14,031
13,819
13,605
13,895
66.
Communications; except broadcasting.......... ........
3,908
4,918
8,555
8,428
7,823
8,502
67.
Radio and television broadcasting.....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
8,058
10,023
15,731
15,496
14,333
15,632
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
61,483
71,336
101,638
100,383
102,828
100,728
70.
Finance and Insurance.................................
11,813
13,604
20,780
20,471
19,024
20,650
71.
Reel estate and rental,,................. .
39,946
47,587
72,396
71,517
66,419
72,144
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
9,263
10,747
15,053
14,697
13,653
14,826
73.
Business services......................................
1,888
2,263
2,796
2,753
2,556
2,777
74.
Research and development..............................
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
7,228
7,120
6,609
7,182
-
4,386
4,818
76.
Amusements.............................................
3,186
3,501
4,678
4,609
4,277
4,648
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
20,445
23,944
36,890
36,271
33,685
38,885
1,129
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
632
747
1,136
1,119
1,038
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
312
405
765
753
699
759
80.
Gross imports of goods and services..................
3,855
5,209
7,403
7,297
7,108
7,340
81.
Business travel, entertainsmnt and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
-55
-44
3
-
10
-
84.
Government Industry....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
85.
Rest of the world Industry............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household industry.....................................
3,502
3,322
3,601
3,547
3,293
3,578
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-
-
-
-
-
.
Total.................................................
290,069
338,641
492,600
485,500
478,500
490,500
1/
Travel receipts from foreign visitors to the United
States were distributed among the individual producing indus
tries for all years.
Therefore, 1958 data differ from that
presented in the 1958 input-output table, where it is shown
as a single item in industry 85. A corresponding, but off
setting adjustment has also been made in net exports, as
shown in table IV-12.
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
2/
3/
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not
equal totals.
SOURCE:
Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business
September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated
by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
75
Table IV-10.
Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, for Selected Years and Projected 1970
(Billions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Selected years
3 percent
Major type
1950
1957
1962
1965
-1
4 percent unemployment
ment
Basic
model
Basic
model
U
High
durables
y
High
services
Total personal consumption expenditures..........
Durable goods...................................
Automobiles and parts........................
Furniture and household equipment...........
Other.........................................
230.5
288.2
492.6
485.5
478.5
490.5
41.5
18.8
17.4
5.3
338.6
49.2
21.8
20.5
6.8
394.1
34.7
15.9
15.1
3.7
65.4
30.1
26.5
8.8
83.1
34.8
36.6
11.7
81.9
34.3
36.1
11.5
89.7
37.5
39.6
12.6
82.2
34.4
36.2
11.6
Nondurable goods................................
Food and beverages...........................
Clothing and shoes...........................
Gasoline and oil .............................
Other.........................................
114.0
63.2
21.8
6.5
22.5
138.7
76.2
24.4
10.5
27.5
158.4
84.1
28.4
12.5
33.4
177.0
91.7
32.8
13.9
38.6
212.1
106.8
37.9
18.1
49.3
209.0
105.2
37.3
17.9
48.6
208.2
104.8
37.2
17.8
48.4
209.8
105.6
37.5
18.0
48.7
Services.........................................
Housing.......................................
Household operation..........................
Transportation...............................
Other.........................................
81.8
26.8
11.7
8.5
34.8
108.0
39.2
16.7
9.5
42.5
131.1
49.1
20.4
9.9
51.7
151.6
59.2
23.3
10.6
58.4
197.4
74.8
31.2
14.9
76.5
194.5
73.7
30.7
14.6
75.5
180.6
68.4
28.5
13.6
70.1
198.5
74.3
31.0
14.8
78.4
Percent distribution
Total personal consumption expenditures..........
100.0
100.0
14.5
6.4
6.1
2.0
100.0
16.6
7.6
6.7
2.2
100.0
15.1
6.9
6.6
1.6
100.0
14.4
6.5
6.0
1.8
100.0
Durable goods...................................
Automobiles and parts........................
Furniture and household equipment...........
Other.........................................
16.9
7.1
7.4
2.4
16.9
7.1
7.4
2.4
100.0
18.7
7.8
8.3
2.6
100.0
16.8
7.0
7.4
2.4
Nondurable goods................................
Food and beverages...........................
Clothing and shoes...........................
Gasoline and o i l .............................
Other.........................................
49.4
27.4
9.5
2.8
9.8
48.1
26.4
8.5
3.6
9.5
46.8
24.8
8.4
3.7
9.9
44.9
23.3
8.3
3.5
9.8
43.1
21.7
7.7
3.7
10.0
43.0
21.7
7.7
3.7
10.0
43.5
21.9
7.8
3.7
10.1
42.8
21.5
7.6
3.7
9.9
Services.........................................
Housing.......................................
Household operation..........................
Transportation...............................
Other.........................................
35.5
11.6
5.1
3.7
15.1
37.5
13.6
5.8
3.3
14.8
38.7
14.5
6.0
2.9
15.3
38.5
15.0
5.9
2.7
14.8
40.1
15.2
6.3
3.0
15.5
40.1
15.2
6.3
3.0
15.6
37.7
14.3
6.0
2.8
14.6
40.5
15.1
6.3
3.0
16.0
Average annual rate of change
Selected periods
1950-57
1957-65
1957-62
Projected 1 9 6 5 - 7 0 ^
1962-65
3 percent
unemployment
mir
4 percent unemployment
Ra
model
Basic
model
High
durables
y
High
services
Total personal consumption expenditures..........
3,2
4.0
3.3
5.2
4.6
4.3
4.0
4.5
Durable goods....................................
Automobiles and parts........................
Furniture and household equipment...........
Other.........................................
2.6
2.4
2.0
5.3
5.9
6.1
5.4
6.6
3.5
3.0
3.3
5.1
9.9
11.4
8.9
9.0
4.9
2.9
6.7
5.8
4.6
2.7
6.4
5.5
6.5
4.5
8.4
7.5
4.7
2.7
6.4
5.7
Nondurable goods................................
Food and beverages...........................
Clothing and shoes...........................
Gasoline and oil .............................
Other.........................................
2.8
2.7
1.6
7.1
2.9
3.1
2.4
3.8
3.6
4.3
2.7
2.0
3.1
3.6
4.0
3.8
2.9
4.9
3.6
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.9
5.4
5.0
3.4
2.8
2.6
5.2
4.7
3.3
2.7
2.5
5.1
4.6
3.5
2.9
2.7
5.3
4.8
Services.........................................
Housing.......................................
Household operation..........................
Transportation...............................
Other.........................................
4.1
5.6
5.2
1.6
2.9
4.3
5.3
4.3
1.4
4.1
4.0
4.6
4.1
0.8
4.0
5.0
6.4
4.5
2.3
4.1
5.4
4.8
6.0
7.0
5.5
5.1
4.5
5.7
6.6
5.3
3.6
2.9
4.1
5.1
3.7
5.5
4.6
5.9
6.9
6.1
\l
2/
3/
4/
Preliminary.
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
Compound Interest rates based on terminal years.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual items may not
equal totals.
SOURCE: Historical data on personal consumption expendi
tures are from U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics.
Projections are by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
76
Table IV-11.
Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 1/
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products....................
.73
.56
.34
.34
.34
.33
2.
Other agricultural products..........................
.84
.68
.55
.54
.54
.53
3.
Forestry and fishery products........................
.10
.09
.08
.08
.08
.08
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.........
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.
Nonferrous metal ores m ining.........................
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.
Coal mining ...........................................
.09
.05
.04
.04
.04
.04
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ......................
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining..............
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.
New construction......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
12.
Maintenance and repair construction.................
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.
Ordnance and accessories.............................
.05
.06
.07
.07
.07
.07
14.
Food and kindred products............................
15.64
14.93
13.11
13.10
13.24
13.01
15.
Tobacco manufactures..................................
1.46
1.43
1.32
1.32
1.34
1.31
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.....
.24
.24
.25
.24
.25
.24
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....
.26
.27
.30
.30
.33
.30
-
-
-
-
-
-
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
18.
Apparel...................... .........................
3.80
3.76
3.61
3.61
3.65
3.58
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
.38
.40
.40
.40
.42
.40
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers.........
.05
.05
.05
.05
.06
.05
21.
Wooden containers.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.
Household furniture...................................
.83
.77
.88
.88
.97
.87
23.
Other furniture and fixtures.........................
.04
.05
.05
.05
.06
.05
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers........
.29
.31
.31
.31
.32
.31
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes......................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
26.
Printing and publishing.............. .......... .
.84
.88
.84
.84
.88
.83
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products............
.07
.08
.08
.08
.08
.08
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
-
-
-
-
-
-
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............
1.28
1.38
1.74
1.74
1.76
1.73
30.
Paints and allied products............ ...............
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
31.
Petroleum refining and related Industries...........
2.50
2.40
2.37
2.37
2.40
2.36
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
.45
.51
.54
.54
.58
.53
33.
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products....
-
-
-
-
-
-
34.
Footwear and other leather products.................
.89
.77
.60
.59
.60
.59
35.
Glass and glass products.............................
.04
.04
.04
.04
.05
.04
36.
Stone and clay products..............................
.07
.07
.07
.07
.08
.07
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
-
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
-
-
-
-
-
39.
Metal Containers......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
40.
Heating,
structural metal products....
.02
.02
.03
.03
.03
.03
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.........
.09
.08
.08
.08
.09
.08
42.
Other fabricated metal products.... .................
.13
.13
.16
.16
.17
.16
plumbing and
43.
Engines and turbines..................................
.04
.04
.06
.06
.06
.06
44.
Farm machinery and equipment........... .............
-
-
-
-
-
-
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........
-
-
-
-
-
-
See footnotes at end of table
77
Table IV-11.
Industrial Composition of Personal Consumption Expenditures
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Contlnued
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
V
High
durables
y
High
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
48.
Special Industry machinery and equipment............
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
49.
General industrial machinery and equipment..........
-
-
-
-
-
-
50.
Machine shop products................................
-
-
-
-
-
.03
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines...........
.02
.02
.03
.03
.03
52.
Service Industry machines............................
.09
.09
.10
.10
.11
.10
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.........
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
54.
Household appliances.................................
.82
.84
1.09
1.09
1.21
1.08
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
.11
.11
.12
.12
.13
.12
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment.......
.47
.54
.90
.90
1.00
.89
57.
Electronic components and accessories...............
.05
.06
.08
.08
.09
.08
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies....
.09
.10
.11
.11
.12
.11
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment.........................
3.17
3.90
4.28
4.28
4.76
4.25
60.
Aircraft and parts....................................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
61.
Other transportation equipment.......................
.25
.29
.34
.34
.37
.33
62.
Scientific and controlling Instruments..............
.12
.15
.15
.15
.16
.15
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.....
.16
.18
.22
.22
.24
.22
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing..........................
.87
.89
1.08
1.08
1.15
1.07
65.
Transportation and warehousing.......................
2.95
2.94
2.85
2.85
2.84
2.83
1.73
66.
Communications; except broadcasting.................
1.35
1.45
1.74
1.74
1.63
67.
Radio and television broadcasting...................
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services..........
2.78
2.96
3.19
3.19
3.00
3.19
20.54
69.
Wholesale and retail trade................... .......
21.20
21.07
20.63
20.68
21.49
70.
Finance and Insurance................................
4.07
4.02
4.22
4.22
3.98
4.21
71.
Real estate and rental...............................
13.77
14.05
14.70
14.73
13.88
14.71
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto...
3.19
3.17
3.06
3.03
2.85
3.02
73.
Business services............. .......................
.65
.67
.57
.57
.53
.57
74.
Research and development.............................
-
-
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services.......................
1.51
1.42
1.47
1.47
1.38
1.46
76.
Amusement8............................................
1.10
1.03
.95
.95
.89
.95
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
7.05
7.07
7.49
7.47
7.04
7.93
78.
Federal Government enterprises.......................
.22
.22
.23
.23
.22
.23
79.
State and local government enterprises...,..........
.11
.12
.16
.16
.15
.15
80.
Gross imports of goods and services.................
1.33
1.54
1.50
1.50
1.49
1.50
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies.....................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods............ ........
.01
-.01
-
-
-
-
84.
Government industry............ ......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
85.
Rest of the world industry............ ...............
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.
Household industry....................................
1.21
.98
.73
.73
.69
.73
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total................................................
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
J
J
1
2
See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual Items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business. September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Departswnt of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
78
Table IV-12.
Industrial Composition of Net Exports— ^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
2/
-
3 percent
unemployment
1962
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 3/
durables
High 4/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products....................
38
27
44
44
44
44
2.
Other agricultural products..........................
1,814
2,473
3,171
3,171
3,171
3,171
62
3.
Forestry and fishery products........................
30
38
62
62
62
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.........
3
6
10
10
10
10
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.....................
41
70
113
113
113
113
6.
Nonferrous metal ores m ining.........................
4
6
14
14
14
14
7.
Coal mining...........................................
332
239
370
370
370
370
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ......................
28
20
29
29
29
29
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................
23
29
41
41
41
41
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..............
55
64
90
90
90
90
11.
New construction............... ......................
2
2
4
4
4
4
12.
Maintenance and repair construction.................
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.
Ordnance and accessories.............................
17
135
264
264
264
264
14.
Food and kindred products............................
1,681
1,900
2,371
2,371
2,371
2,371
15.
Tobacco manufactures.................................
437
480
605
605
605
605
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i lls....
227
212
185
185
185
185
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....
46
66
61
61
61
61
18.
Apparel................................................
273
298
342
342
342
342
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
19
23
17
17
17
17
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers.........
110
149
284
284
284
284
21.
Wooden containers.....................................
3
3
5
5
5
5
22.
Household furniture............... ...................
16
14
11
11
11
11
23.
Other furniture and fixtures................. .......
18
13
10
10
10
10
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers........
262
395
598
598
598
598
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes......................
19
23
38
38
38
38
26.
Printing and publishing..... .................... .
94
139
193
193
193
193
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products...........
676
977
1,523
1,523
1,523
1,523
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
339
513
650
650
650
650
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............
330
369
487
487
487
487
30.
Paints and allied products...........................
27
27
39
39
39
39
31.
Petroleum refining and related industries...........
657
627
776
776
776
776
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
212
255
361
361
361
361
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products....
28
32
50
50
50
50
34.
Footwear and other leather products.................
49
33
30
30
30
30
35.
Glass and glass products.............................
69
81
106
106
106
106
36.
Stone and clay products..............................
100
108
137
137
137
137
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing................
535
416
550
550
550
550
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
305
399
553
553
553
553
39.
Metal containers......................................
26
23
25
25
25
25
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products....
225
251
339
339
339
339
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.........
28
35
44
44
44
44
42.
Other fabricated metal products......................
258
262
347
347
347
347
43.
Engines and turbines..................................
211
277
525
525
525
525
44.
Farm machinery and equipment.........................
188
228
394
394
394
394
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.......
709
872
1,322
1,322
1,322
1,322
See footnotes at end of table.
79
Table IV-12.
Industrial Composition of Net Exports—1/
1 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
-1
3 percent
unemployment
1962
Basic
model
46.
Materials handling swchlnery and equipment..........
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment................
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 3/
durables
High 4/
services
76
86
172
172
172
172
331
524
976
976
976
976
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment............
370
555
915
915
915
915
49.
General industrial machinery and equipment..........
275
333
672
672
672
672
50.
Machine shop products................................
15
5
10
10
10
10
322
779
779
779
779
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines...........
136
52.
Service industry machines............................
135
179
342
342
342
342
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.........
281
344
601
601
601
601
54.
Household appliances..................................
208
194
321
321
321
321
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
64
75
123
123
123
123
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment.......
212
317
719
719
719
719
57.
Electronic components and accessories..... .........
90
147
292
292
292
292
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
71
77
129
129
129
129
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment.........................
921
1,138
1,799
1,799
1,799
1,799
60.
Aircraft and parts....................................
559
1,068
1,883
1,883
1,883
1,883
61.
Other transportation equipment.......................
299
191
267
267
267
267
62.
Scientific and controlling Instruments..............
183
336
638
638
638
638
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.....
107
150
309
309
309
309
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing................. ........
125
188
250
250
250
250
65.
Transportation and warehousing.......................
2,393
2,872
4,089
4,089
4,089
4,089
111
66.
Communications; except broadcasting.................
65
82
111
111
111
67.
Radio and television broadcasting........... ........
9
20
37
37
37
37
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services..........
36
35
54
54
54
54
2,836
69.
Wholesale and retail trade...........................
1,500
1,990
2,836
2,836
2,836
70.
Finance and Insurance................................
23
28
63
63
63
63
71.
Real estate and rental.......... .....................
271
429
580
580
580
580
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto...
192
202
303
303
303
303
73.
Business services.....................................
249
330
425
425
425
425
74.
Research and development.............................
-
17
-
-
-
-
75.
Automobile repair and services.......................
1
1
1
1
1
1
335
346
492
492
492
492
76.
Amusements............................................
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organisations....
9
10
14
14
14
14
78.
Federal Government enterprises.......................
61
76
66
66
66
66
79.
State and local government enterprises..............
3
-1
-
-
-
-
80.
Gross Imports of goods and services.................
-21,082
-25,474
-34,308
-34,308
-34,308
-34,308
-
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts............
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies.......................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods....................
250
324
510
510
510
510
84.
Government industry...................................
-
-
-
-
-
-
85.
Rest of the world Industry...........................
2,867
4,420
6,842
6,842
6,842
6,842
86.
Household industry......................... ..........
1
1
2
2
2
2
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment.......................
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total................................................
2,206
4,545
10,499
10,499
10,499
10,499
1/ The detailed entries reflect gross exports of goods
and services from each producing Industry.
Imports in total
are shown as negative entries in these columns on row 80.
Therefore, the sum of each column equals the GNP component,
"net exports of goods and services" for the selected year.
2/ See footnote 1, table IV-9.
3/ See footnote 2, table IV-2.
4/ See footnote 3, table IV-2.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Coveerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business, September 1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the D.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
8o
Table IV-13.
Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
______________________ (Millions of 1958 dollars)_________________________________
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
-
1962
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 3/
durables
High 4/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
2,758
2,629
2,118
2,099
2,084
2,105
2.
Other agricultural products..........................
5,770
4,850
6,097
6,061
6,050
6,070
3.
Forestry and fishery products........................
194
249
237
230
229
231
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.........
0
-27
-83
-83
-83
-83
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores m i ning......................
18
65
115
115
115
115
6.
Nonferrous metal ores m i ning.........................
163
293
226
222
222
222
7.
Coal adning...........................................
631
530
739
734
733
735
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ......................
-11
41
63
63
63
63
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................
41
52
70
69
68
69
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining..............
78
74
118
118
118
118
11.
New construction......................................
52,416
58,071
82,608
81,558
84,058
78,998
12.
Maintenance and repair construction.................
4,420
5,075
6,504
6,504
6,504
6,504
13.
Ordnance and accessories.............................
3,592
4,167
5,420
5,417
5,429
5,418
14.
Food and kindred products............................
47,633
53,514
68,349
67,360
67,131
67,586
5,342
7,133
7,035
7,009
7,058
15.
Tobacco manufactures............... ..................
4,661
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread sdlls....
879
1,229
1,562
1,536
1,554
1,541
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....
813
1,124
1,689
1,665
1,803
1,669
18.
Apparel................................................
11,315
13,833
19,069
18,796
18,737
18,858
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
1,221
1,466
2,105
2,076
2,102
2,083
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers.........
323
381
618
612
632
612
21.
Wooden Containers.....................................
-4
34
30
30
30
30
22.
Household furniture...................................
2,634
2,933
4,822
4,751
5,176
4,756
23.
Other furniture and fixtures.........................
1,099
1,490
2,353
2,315
2,462
2,229
24.
Fapar and allied products, except containers........
1,185
1,559
2,300
2,276
2,270
2,281
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes......................
61
187
153
152
152
152
26.
Printing and publishing..............................
2,813
3,580
5,080
5,006
5,132
5,053
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products............
1,931
2,309
3,152
3,139
3,149
3,177
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
319
649
775
774
774
774
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............
4,419
5,592
9,791
9,654
9,625
9,737
30.
Paints and allied products...........................
44
64
100
97
97
97
31.
Petroleum refining and related industries..........
8,855
10,378
14,667
14,473
14,426
14,514
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
1,744
2,270
3,456
3,410
3,601
3,417
33.
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products....
25
28
55
55
55
55
34.
Footwear and other leather products.................
2,704
2,803
3,010
2,953
2,957
2,964
35.
Glass and glass products.............................
196
242
332
329
347
331
36.
Stone and clay products..............................
350
392
543
538
555
539
37.
Primary iron and steel manufacturing................
514
453
795
794
794
794
729
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
650
557
731
729
731
39.
Metal containers......................................
68
60
75
75
77
73
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products....
951
1,185
1,836
1,819
1,910
1,756
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts........
310
390
546
537
570
538
42.
Other fabricated metal products......................
927
1,239
1,839
1,820
1,884
1,817
43.
Engines and turbines.................................
1,145
1,177
1,683
1,668
1,738
1,633
44.
Farm M c h i n e r y and equipment.........................
1,878
1,927
2,841
2,804
2,975
2,676
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........
2,060
2,340
4,070
4,028
4,216
3,869
See footnotes at end of table.
8l
Table 1V-13.
Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^ 1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1958
3 percent
unemployment
1962
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High 3/
durables
High 4/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
593
717
1,141
1,128
1,180
1,111
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
1,662
2,203
3,599
3,562
3,731
3,424
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.... ........
1,814
2,535
3,988
3,937
4,157
3,754
49.
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
1,451
1,787
2,698
2,669
2,800
2,555
50.
Machine shop products.................................
83
145
157
155
155
184
5,160
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
1,372
2,318
5,325
5,257
6,086
52.
Service industry machines.............................
1,397
1,840
3,425
3,376
3,604
3,223
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus..........
2,136
2,589
4,324
4,269
4,523
4,058
54.
Household appliances..................................
2,780
3,238
6,010
5,923
6,432
5,927
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
471
550
861
842
873
841
11,601
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
4,333
7,794
11,854
11,746
12,350
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
593
1,074
1,537
1,531
1,576
1,526
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
537
670
1,069
1,058
1,117
1,071
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
14,094
22,199
35,717
35,132
37,715
34,567
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
8,730
10,624
11,380
11,357
11,467
11,271
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
2,820
3,500
5,841
5,772
6,126
5,610
62.
Scientific and controlling instruments...............
1,800
2,541
3,555
3,520
3,658
3,470
2,141
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
909
1,180
2,188
2,161
2,277
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
3,184
4,008
6,768
6,673
6,998
6,653
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
13,463
15,852
21,933
21,676
21,575
21,751
10,183
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
4,694
6,086
10,311
10,154
9,612
67.
Radio and television broadcasting.....................
9
23
39
39
39
39
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
8,929
11,017
17,271
17,006
15,843
17,142
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
67,627
79,848
115,198
113,772
116,752
113,574
70.
Finance and insurance.................. ...............
12,028
13,872
21,336
21,017
19,570
21,196
71.
Real estate and rental............ ....................
41,772
50,160
75,781
74,877
69,779
75,404
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto..,.
9,788
11,228
15,856
15,491
14,447
15,620
73.
Business services......................................
3,184
4,355
5,594
5,526
5,329
5,620
74.
Research and development..............................
372
360
390
390
390
390
75.
Automobile repair and services........................
4,599
5,061
7,635
7,518
7,007
7,580
76.
Amusements.......................... ......... ....... .
3,516
3,805
5,184
5,117
4,785
5,156
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
21,418
24,883
38,541
37,922
35,336
40,616
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
817
977
1,448
1,424
1,343
1,434
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
434
625
1,041
1,021
967
1,027
80.
Gross imports of goods and services..................
-14,483
-17,575
-24,815
-24,921
-25,113
-24,885
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
207
331
492
480
480
480
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods......................
-374
248
613
610
627
604
84.
Government industry....................................
39,029
43,483
55,228
54,759
54,759
55,287
85.
Rest of the world Industry............................
2,560
3,525
6,092
6,092
6,092
6,092
86.
Household industry.....................................
3,503
3,323
3,603
3,549
3,295
3,580
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-311
269
-
-
-
-
447,344
- /530,062
760,000
750,000
750,000
750,000
Total................................................
1/ In this context, total final demand is the sum of
demand from consumers, government, business, and foreign.
The data are sums of tables IV-2, 4, 8, 9, and 12.
2
The presentation of the data on 1958 purchases by
the Federal Government have been changed to conform with
the treatment of research and development (1962 and 1970).
2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2.
4/ See footnote 3, table IV-2.
5/ In table III-l, total final demand or GNP is
J
shown as $530.0 while in this table, it is shown as 530,062 (530.1
rounded) which is the unrounded sum of each of the categories of
final demand.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual items stay not
equal totals.
SOURCE:
Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business, September
1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
82
Table IV-14.
Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
1962
1958
3 percent
unemployment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
it
High
durables
High 2/
services
1.
Livestock and livestock products....................
.62
.50
.28
.28
.28
.28
2.
Other agricultural products..........................
1.29
.92
.80
.81
.81
.81
3.
Forestry and fishery products........................
.04
.05
.03
.03
.03
.03
4.
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.........
-
-.01
-.01
-.01
-.01
-.01
5.
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining......................
★
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
6.
Nonferrous metal ores mining.........................
.04
.06
.03
.03
.03
.03
7.
Coal mining...........................................
.14
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
8.
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ......................
*
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
9.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
10.
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining..............
.02
.01
.02
.02
.02
.02
11.
New construction......................................
11.72
10.96
10.87
10.87
11.21
10.53
12.
Maintenance and repair construction.................
.99
.96
.86
.87
.87
.87
13.
Ordnance and accessories.............................
.80
.79
.71
.72
.72
.72
14.
Food and kindred products............................
10.65
10.10
8.99
8.98
8.95
9.01
15.
Tobacco manufactures.................................
1.04
1.01
.94
.94
.93
.94
16.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread m i l l s ....
.20
.23
.21
.20
.21
.21
17.
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....
.18
.21
.22
.22
.24
.22
18.
Apparel................................................
2.53
2.61
2.51
2.51
2.50
2.51
19.
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
.27
.28
.28
.28
.28
.28
20.
Lumber and wood products, except containers.........
.07
.07
.08
.08
.08
.08
21.
Wooden containers.....................................
*
.01
*
*
*
*
22.
Household furniture...................................
.59
.55
.63
.63
.69
.63
23.
Other furniture and fixtures.........................
.25
.28
.31
.31
.33
.30
24.
Paper and allied products, except containers........
.26
.29
.30
.30
.30
.30
25.
Paperboard containers and boxes......................
.01
.04
.02
.02
.02
.02
26.
Printing and publishing...... .......................
.63
.68
.67
.67
.68
.67
27.
Chemicals and selected chemical products............
.43
.44
.41
.42
.42
.42
28.
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
.07
.12
.10
.10
.10
.10
29.
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............
.99
1.06
1.29
1.29
1.28
1.30
30.
Paints and allied products...........................
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
31.
Petroleum refining and related industries...........
1.98
1.96
1.93
1.93
1.92
1.94
32.
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
.39
.43
.45
.45
.48
.46
33.
Leather tanning and industrial leather products....
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
34.
Footwear and other leather products.................
.60
.53
.40
.39
.39
.40
35.
Glass and glass products.............................
.04
.05
.04
.04
.05
.04
36.
Stone and clay products..............................
.08
.07
.07
.07
.07
.07
37.
Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................
.11
.09
.10
.11
.11
.11
38.
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
.15
.11
.10
.10
.10
.10
39.
Metal containers................................. .
.02
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
40.
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products....
.21
.22
.24
.24
.25
.23
41.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.........
.07
.07
.07
.07
.08
.07
42.
Other fabricated metal products......................
.21
.23
.24
.24
.25
.24
43.
Engines and turbines..................................
.26
.22
.22
.22
.23
.22
44.
Farm machinery and equipment.........................
.42
.36
.37
.37
.40
.36
45.
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........
.46
.44
.54
.54
.56
.52
See footnotes at end of table.
83
Table IV-14. Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand^
1958, 1962, and Projected 1970--Continued
(Percent distribution)
Projected 1970
Industry number and title
3 percent
unemployment
1962
1958
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic
model
High 2/
durables
High 3/
services
46.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
.13
.14
.15
.15
.16
.15
47.
Metalworking machinery and equipment............. .
.37
.42
.47
.47
.50
.46
48.
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
.41
.48
.52
.52
.55
.50
49.
General industrial machinery and equipment...........
.32
.34
.36
.36
.37
.34
50.
Machine shop products.................................
.02
.03
.02
.02
.02
.02
.69
51.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
.31
.44
.70
.70
.81
52.
Service industry machines.............................
.31
.35
.45
.45
.48
.43
53.
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus..........
.48
.49
.57
.57
.60
.54
.79
54.
Household appliances..................................
.62
.61
.79
.79
.86
55.
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
.11
.10
.11
.11
.12
.11
56.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
.97
1.47
1.56
1.57
1.65
1.55
57.
Electronic components and accessories................
.13
.20
.20
.20
.21
.20
58.
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies.....
.12
.13
.14
.14
.15
.14
59.
Motor vehicles and equipment..........................
3.15
4.19
4.70
4.68
5.03
4.61
60.
Aircraft and parts.....................................
1.95
2.00
1.50
1.51
1.53
1.50
61.
Other transportation equipment........................
.63
.66
.77
.77
.82
.75
62.
Scientific and controlling instruments...............
.40
.48
.47
.47
.49
.46
63.
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
.20
.22
.29
.29
.30
.29
64.
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........................
.71
.76
.89
.89
.93
.89
65.
Transportation and warehousing........................
3.01
2.99
2.89
2.89
2.88
2.90
1.05
1.15
1.36
1.35
1.28
1.36
.01
.01
.01
.01
66.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
67.
Radio and television broadcasting....................
68.
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
2.00
2.08
2.27
2.27
2.11
2.29
*
★
69.
Wholesale and retail trade............................
15.12
15.06
15.16
15.17
15.57
15.14
70.
Finance and insurance.................................
2.69
2.62
2.81
2.80
2.61
2.83
71.
Real estate and rental................................
9.34
9.46
9.97
9.98
9.30
10.05
72.
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
2.19
2.12
2.09
2.07
1.93
2.08
73.
Business services......................................
.71
.82
.74
.74
.71
.75
74.
Research and development..............................
.08
.07
.05
.05
.05
.05
75.
Automobile repair and services............... ........
1.03
.95
1.00
1.00
.93
1.01
76.
Amusements.............................................
.79
.72
.68
.68
.64
.69
77.
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
4.79
4.69
5.07
5.06
4.71
5.42
78.
Federal Government enterprises........................
.18
.18
.19
.19
.18
.19
79.
State and local government enterprises...............
.10
.12
.14
.14
.13
.14
80.
Gross imports of goods and services..................
-3.24
-3.32
-3.27
-3.32
-3.35
-3.32
81.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
-
-
-
-
-
-
82.
Office supplies........................................
.05
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
83.
Scrap, used and secondhand goods.....................
-.08
.05
.08
.08
.08
.08
84.
Government industry....................................
8.72
8.20
7.27
7.30
7.30
7.37
85.
Rest of the world industry............................
.57
.67
.80
.81
.81
.81
86.
Household industry.....................................
.78
.63
.47
.47
.44
.48
87.
Inventory valuation adjustment........................
-.07
.05
-
-
-
-
Total.................................................
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
♦Less than .01.
1/ In this context, total final demand is the sum of
demand from consumers, government, business, and foreign.
The data are sums of tables IV-2, 4, 8, 9, and 12.
2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2.
See footnote 3, table IV-2.
3/
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not
equal totals.
SOURCE: Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of Commerce
Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current Business. September
1965. The year 1962 and 1970 projections are estimated by the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
814Table IV-15.
Industrial Composition of Total Final Demand by Major Industry Group
Selected Years and Projected 1970
(Millions of 1958 dollars)
Projected 1970
Selected years
3 percent
unemploy
ment
1958
Major industry group
1962
1965— 7
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
Basic 2/
durables
Basic 2/
services
447,344
530,062
609,600
760,000
750,000
750,000
750,000
8,722
8,323
7,701
6,948
8,369
8,307
8,280
Mini n g ...................................................
4/
Construction ” .............................................
Agriculture..................................................
920
1,055
1,511
1,331
1,321
1,319
1,322
56,836
63,146
68,784
88,862
88,062
90,562
85,502
Manufacturing................................................
158,074
196,404
232,949
282,417
278,791
286,925
276,963
Durables.................................................
67,452
90,479
115,258
139,971
138,334
146,351
135,947
Nondurables.............................................
90,622
105,925
117,691
142,446
140,457
140,574
141,016
Transportation..............................................
13,463
15,852
18,122
21,933
21,676
21,575
21,751
Communications and public utilities........................
13,632
17,126
20,125
27,621
27,199
25,494
27,364
Trade........................................................
67,627
79,848
93,305
115,448
113,772
116,752
113,574
Finance, insurance, and real estate........................
53,800
64,032
76,500
97,117
95,894
89,349
96,600
Services.....................................................
42,877
49,692
55,432
73,200
71,964
67,294
74,982
Government enterprises......................................
1,251
1,602
1,770
2,489
2,445
2,310
2,461
General government — .......................................
39,029
43,483
46,799
55,228
54,759
54,759
55,287
Federal..................................................
19,951
21,184
20,856
22,014
21,987
21,987
21,987
State and local.........................................
6/
Miscellaneous — .............................................
19,078
22,299
25,943
38,214
32,772
32,772
33,300
5,585
7,696
9,450
10,800
10,731
10,494
10,756
Final demand Imports........................................
6,795
8,186
9,024
9,920
9,814
9,622
9,850
Total Imports — ^..........................................
-21,277
-25,761
-31,200
-34,735
-34,735
-34,735
-34,735
l
Percent distribution
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Agriculture..................................................
1.95
1.45
1.14
1.10
1.11
1.10
1.11
Mining.......................................................
.21
.20
.25
.18
.18
.18
.18
Construction.................................................
12.71
11.91
11.28
11.69
11.74
12.07
11.40
Manufacturing................................................
35.34
37.05
38.22
37.16
37.17
38.26
36.93
Durables.................................................
15.08
17.07
18.91
18.42
18.44
19.51
18.13
Nondurables.............................................
20.26
19.98
19.31
18.74
18.73
18.74
18.80
Transportation..............................................
3.01
2.99
2.97
2.89
2.89
2.88
2.90
Communications and public utilities........................
3.05
3.23
3.30
3.63
3.63
3.40
3.65
Trade........................................................
15.12
15.06
15.31
15.19
15.17
15.57
15.14
Finance, insurance, and real estate........................
12.03
12.08
12.55
12.78
12.79
11.91
12.88
Services.....................................................
9.58
9.37
9.09
9.63
9.60
8.97
10.00
Government enterprises......................................
.28
.30
.29
.33
.33
.31
.33
General government..........................................
8.72
8.20
7.68
7.27
7.30
7.30
7.37
Federal................ .................................
4.46
4.00
3.42
2.90
2.93
2.93
2.93
State and local.........................................
4.26
4.21
4.26
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.44
Miscellaneous................................................
1.25
1.45
1.55
1.42
1.43
1.40
1.43
Final demand Imports........................................
1.52
1.54
1.48
1.31
1.31
1.28
1.31
Total imports.............................................
-4.76
-4.86
-5.12
-4.57
-4.63
-4.63
-4.63
1/ This GNP is a preliminary revision of the GNP shown in
table III-l and table A-l. The revisions are minor and do not
substantially affect the total or distribution of final demand.
2/ See footnote 2, table IV-2.
3/ See footnote 3, table IV-2.
4/ Construction includes both new and maintenance con
struction.
Does not include compensation of government forceaccount construction employees which is included in construc
tion.
_6/ Includes industries 81 through 83 and industries 85
through 87.
5_/
7/ The item "total imports" is an adjustment factor to
total final demand to balance to GNP.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
SOURCE:
Data for 1958 are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, Survey of Current
Business, September 1965.
The year 1962 and 1970 projections
are estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Chapter V.
The Interindustry Employment Table
The interindustry employment table provides the means for convert
ing the projections of final demand for goods and services into estimates
of industry employment requirements. 31/ The table is derived by con
verting the total requirements table of the basic set of input-output
tables into employment terms. The interindustry employment table shows
the direct and indirect employment required in each industry to produce
the raw materials, parts, components, fuel, transportation, distribu
tion, etc., embodied in the various final products and services produced
by the economy.
The application of the employment conversion factors in the inter
industry employment table to the projections of final demand described
in the previous chapter yields the projections of industry employment
requirements. Before the interindustry employment table can be used for
this purpose, however, the basic 1958 input-output relationships have to
be projected to 1970 to take account of changes in technology, substitu
tion of one type of material for another, product mix, industry integra
tion, etc. In addition, the estimates of unit labor requirements used
to convert output to employment also need to be projected to 1970. The
interindustry employment table used in this bulletin reflects the pro
jection of both input-output relationships and unit labor requirements
to 1970.
Input-Output Coefficients
Causes of changes in coefficients. Input-output relationships or
coefficients may change for a variety of reasons. Obviously, technolog
ical change is a major factor underlying changes in coefficients, from
period to period. For example, the introduction of nuclear electric
power plants requires a new input--nuclear fuel. Growth of nuclear
electric power reduces the relative need for other fuels such as coal
and gas.
Other factors such as product mix or price changes can also cause
significant changes in coefficients. Product mix problems result from
the industry classification used. In dividing the U.S. economy into
about 80 sectors, very large industry groups such as "food and kindred
products" or "chemicals" are created. These large sectors include dif
ferent commodities and services, each with its own set of input require
ments. If the output of the various commodities changes at different
31/ In concept, there should be a separate interindustry employment
table for each set of final demand projections. Only the one that is
used for converting the "bill of goods" in the basic 4-percent unemploy
ment model into employment is shown. The implied differences in produc
tivity are discussed on page 101.
85
86
rates, then the total input coefficients of the sector may also be
changed. This can occur even if there are no technological changes in
the producing industries. For example, plastics and rubber are both
included in the "rubber and miscellaneous plastics products" sector.
Since the output of plastic products is growing more rapidly than rubber
products and the material and service requirements of each differ, then
the sector coefficients may change for this reason alone.
Price competition can also change coefficients. Iron ore and scrap
are the two basic and interchangeable sources of raw material for the
steel industry. The current technological trend is toward the use of
more iron ore and less scrap. However, in 1963 the use of scrap
increased relative to iron ore due, in part, to the low price of scrap
in that year.
Another kind of coefficient change, difficult to project, arises
from the definition of an industry's output. The input-output system
generally records market transactions. Many intermediate materials may
not go through a market transaction. Instead, these materials may be
produced and used within a single plant. If the operation of an indus
try changes so that more of a previously purchased "intermediate" is now
manufactured intraplant, then the input-output coefficient may be
affected.
Other sources of coefficient changes arise from design changes,
varying levels of output requiring different mixes of materials, and
mixes of several processes using different materials for manufacturing
the same final product.
Most coefficients change slowly, since existing processes often use
long-lived capital equipment. Even a profitable innovation, such as the
basic oxygen steel furnace (BOF), takes time to become widely adopted
throughout the industry. Oxygen furnaces were first introduced into the
United States in 1954. In the first three quarters of 1965, they still
accounted for only about 17 percent of ingot steel output. This process
is spreading rapidly, however, and it is estimated that the BOF will pro
vide over 40 percent of total ingot supply by 1970.
A variety of methods are used to estimate the 1970 coefficients.
In general, the approaches include analyses of specific industries and
coefficients and more general methods which cover all coefficients.
The coefficient projections used to develop the 1970 interindustry
table represent a synthesis of both approaches. The projections are
generally based on an evaluation of past trends in coefficients, to the
extent that these can be ascertained. They are modified in a number of
areas to take account of changing technology and other factors. Some of
the techniques and studies used to develop 1970 coefficients are described
below.
87
Detailed industry studies. The projections of inputs for the agri
cultural sector were developed by the Economic Research Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture.32/ The coefficient projections for the live
stock and crop sectors were part of a broad analysis of agriculture.
Inputs such as fertilizer, feed, seed, petroleum products, etc., were
estimated within a framework of projected yields, acreage planted, trends
in per capita food and textile consumption, etc. The broad scope of
these estimates was made possible by the wealth of available data.
The study indicates that selected purchased inputs, including agri
cultural services, fertilizers, insecticides, lime, and seed are rising
relative to output. Sectors supplying these inputs are agricultural
services, chemicals, and trade. The long-term trend in agriculture
toward using more purchased materials and services and fewer selfsupplied inputs is expected to continue. For example, farmers increas
ingly are purchasing high-grade seed instead of retaining a portion of
the crop for this purpose. Significant expansion has already occurred
in services provided to farmers. Such services, provided both by ser
vice and trade establishments, include feed and fertilizer mixing, deliv
ery to the farm, and distribution of fertilizer and insecticides
directly on the fields and crops.
The above trends are resulting in large investments being made in
fertilizer, sulphuric acid, and related plants and in the development of
supporting mineral industries, such as sulphur and phosphate mining.
The growth in both custom material mixing and the service requirements
of farmers is resulting in a number of new establishments specializing
in these activities. Such establishments are often sponsored by or are
part of large manufacturers of agricultural materials, such as fertil
izers .
In contrast to the agricultural sector's wealth of data on inputs,
the data on intermediate inputs into the minerals sector are quite
limited. In addition, the diversity of mining operations, even within
a single industry, makes any given mining operation unique. As a result,
the Bureau of Mines 33/ projections of input coefficients for the miner
als sectors were based, to a considerable extent on the knowledge and
experience of its industry specialists. This was the only way these
32/ The work in this area was under the direct supervision of the
late Robert Masucci.
33/ The projections by the Bureau of Mines were coordinated by
Robert Johnson, Jr., under the direction of William Vogley, Chief Econ
omist for that Bureau.
88
estimates could be developed short of an extensive survey. It should be
noted here that Bureau of Mines data on output and uses of minerals were
very useful in developing coefficient projections in the mineral and ore
processing manufacturing industries.
Projections for other important sectors of the economy were devel
oped by the Harvard Economic Research Project.34/ These were based on
individual industry studies and across-the-board approaches. The indus
try studies covered the more important inputs into a number of manufac
turing industries, particularly the textiles, glass, and metalworking
sectors. They also covered several nonmanufacturing industries, includ
ing gas and electric utilities and transportation.35/ Summaries of tech
nological developments in two major sectors--steel and textiles--may be
useful in illustrating the approach used in these studies.
Technological change in the iron and steel sector, particularly
through the introduction of new and improved types of capital equipment,
often results in a different and, in net, more economical material use
per unit of final product. Three major materials of steelmaking have
been affected--oxygen, iron ore, and scrap.
The greater use of oxygen has contributed significantly to the im
proved rates of output in steelmaking. BOF, which require large quanti
ties of oxygen, are replacing open hearth furnaces at a rapid rate. The
industry has also found that the speed and efficiency of both open hearth
and blast furnaces are increased by the use of oxygen. In these two
stages of steelmaking, the cost of converting furnaces to the use of oxy
gen is relatively modest. However, a nearby source of vast quantities
of oxygen is generally needed. Oxygen plants, requiring large invest
ments, are therefore being added to the traditional steel triumvirate of
coke ovens, blast furnaces, and steel mills.
In some cases, the oxygen plant is owned by the steel company, and
the oxygen becomes "produced and consumed" in a single establishment.
Thus, it is not included in input-output coefficients. In other cases,
it is purchased or transferred from the oxygen plant operator and repre
sents an interplant transfer. These transfers are counted in computing
the coefficient. Therefore, the projected coefficient for oxygen in
1970 includes an estimate of the possible degree of integration in the
production of oxygen.
34/ The work on coefficient projections at the Harvard Economic
Research Project is under the direction of Dr. Anne Carter. Professor
Wassily Leontief is the Director of the Harvard Economic Research Pro
ject.
35/ See the bibliography for the industries covered by the Harvard
Economic Research Project program.
89
Continuous casting is another new process requiring sizable new in
vestment. In this process, slabs and billets are cast directly from
molten metal, eliminating the previous ingot stage which required hand
ling and reheating prior to being rolled into slabs and billets. This
bypassing of several steps in the processing of raw materials not only
cuts costs, but also results in the saving of scrap formerly generated
in the old process. Continuous casting, presently quite small, is grow
ing rapidly and is expected to be significant by 1970.
Iron ore and scrap are the two basic sources of metal in the steel
industry. In the last decade, the depletion of domestic high-grade ore
sources has been an impetus to the development of processes for upgrad
ing the vast quantities of available leaner grades. These new techniques
result in a processed ore with a higher iron content and more optimal
forms than even the old high-grade natural ore. Such processed ore com
mands a premium price, as it results in substantial savings of time and
material in the operation of blast furnaces. However, the lean ore re
quires a very large capital expenditure at or near the mine, as the pro
cessing is a factory-type operation. The efficiency of processed ore is
such that, by 1970, virtually all ore will be processed before being
used in blast furnaces.
New developments have also had a significant influence on the scrap
sector. So far, the rapidly growing basic oxygen process has been lim
ited in the extent to which scrap can be used, while the cost of iron
derived from iron ore has been reduced. On the other hand, the output
of electric furnaces, which are heavy scrap users, is growing. More re
cently, the resurgence in the use of castings, made in large part from
scrap, has bolstered the scrap market. Mounting supplies of scrap and
the weakening in the market for low-grade scrap, however, has placed
considerable downward pressure on scrap prices. As a result, the scrap
industry has been required to improve its product by better grading and
classification. There are indications that some scrap dealers may be
come pig iron suppliers by converting the scrap into ingot pig, espe
cially for foundry (castings) uses. In general, it can be assumed that
the industry may change, but scrap use will remain at a high level.
For many years, the steel sector has been successfully decreasing
the quantity of coal (coke) used per ton of steel output. This is
expected to continue as improved iron ore requires less coke and as con
tinuous casting eliminates the "soaking" or reheating of ingots. These
improvements will also help to conserve the limited supplies of highgrade coking coal.
An important aspect of these and other changes is the decreased
amount of waste and scrap arising in internal operations, which means
that less material and raw steel are needed per unit of final product.
Ore "fines" (small ore particles), previously vulnerable to losses are
rendered more usable through new processes. Larger heats (batches) in
239-877 0 - 6 6 - 7
90
blast furnaces and elimination of scrap made possible by continuous
casting are examples of material saving operations. On the other hand,
steel products are often being upgraded or changed, with the result that
losses at subsequent processing operations may be greater. For example,
more intensive processing, such as finer machining, may create more
scrap than previously. Net losses due to this type of change are hard
to measure, and no specific estimate of such changes are included in the
1970 projections.
The textile area, studied by the Harvard Economic Research Project,
includes several sectors in the input-output system. Significant trends
in materials use show a continuation of the substitution of synthetics
for natural fibers, substitution of noncellulosics 36/ (such as nylon)
for cellulosics (rayon), and the increased use of chemicals.
Increased use of synthetics is derived by pure substitution (i.e.,
rayon for cotton) and by partial substitution, as in blends. Blends of
natural and synthetic fiber impart the useful qualities of each fiber to
the fabric. Initially, blends tend to displace natural fibers but in
the longrun they may add an element of stability to the natural fiber
market. That is, the natural fiber may share in the increased use of
the blended fabric. Nevertheless, the continuing rapid growth in syn
thetics has led to 1970 coefficients which assume an increase in their
relative share of the fiber market. Also, other uses, beyond those
available to the natural fibers, have been found for the synthetic mate
rials. An example is the use of nylon instead of metal for rollers and
bearings.
In addition, the relatively new cellulosic fibers are themselves
being displaced by noncellulosics and fiberglass. Recent improvements
in the cellulosics (sometimes so different as to require a new plant)
are aiding this type of fiber in its contest for a share of the market,
but the newer noncellulosic fibers continue to grow rapidly. Fibers
with unusual qualities are being made from other materials, such as bo
rates and will probably be in use by 1970.
Increased use of chemicals in textiles is an outgrowth of success
ful efforts at imparting new and useful qualities to cloth (permanent
press characteristics, dirt shedding ability, etc.). Many of these
processes require some type of chemical coating or treatment of the
fabric to obtain the desired result. Therefore, the chemical input into
the textile sectors has been increased significantly for 1970.
General approaches. In addition to the industry studies described
above, the Harvard Economic Research Project used another approach to
the projection of coefficients to 1970. This involved aggregation and
adjustment of the earlier and more detailed 1947 input-output table so
36/ Cellulosics (rayon) are made from wood pulp, i.e., cellulose.
The term noncellulosics refers primarily to petroleum-based fibers,
such as nylon. Use of fiberglass made from glass is also growing
rapidly.
91
as to make it consistent with the more recent 1958 input-output table.
The two tables were then compared to ascertain the major changes in co
efficients between 1947-58. The projections developed by the Harvard
Project were based in part on the analysis of the 1947-58 coefficient
changes. The 1947-58 changes were not extrapolated mechanically but
were used, along with information from a wide variety of sources, to
develop coefficient projections on a selective basis.
Another general approach to the analysis of aggregate coefficient
changes was developed by BLS, Division of Economic Growth. It was used
to ascertain the change between 1958 and 1962. This method involves
several steps. First, estimates are developed of total output and final
demand for each industry during a particular year--in this instance,
1962.37/ Deducting the estimate of final demand from industry output
yields an estimate of actual intermediate output. In the second step,
another estimate of intermediate demand is derived by applying the 1958
coefficient matrix to the actual 1962 outputs. If there have been no
substantial changes in input-output coefficients since the base period
(1958), application of the base year coefficients to the industry output
levels for the more recent year should yield approximately the same esti
mate of total intermediate output as the "actual" intermediate output.
If the two estimates differ, this implies that, in the aggregate, the
intermediate industries using a particular industry's output have in
creased or decreased their use of this industry's product or service per
dollar of their own output.
The method is useful in determining how coefficients have changed
in the aggregate; that is, for the total intermediate use of the output
of a particular industry. It does not indicate how the change may be
distributed among the individual consuming industries. The coefficient
changes implied by the 1962 study were compared with similar estimates
derived from a 1961 input-output table being developed by the Office of
Business Economics.
This comparison attempted to determine whether the derived changes
in coefficients reflected a time trend. The rates of coefficient change
implied by the 1962 study, modified on the basis of the 1961-62 compari
son, were used as a check on the independent industry coefficient projec
tions and also to determine whether further coefficient changes were
needed. In some cases the study results justified adjustments to the
independently estimated coefficients. Also, a number of previously un
changed 1958 coefficients were modified for inclusion in the 1970 inputoutput chart.
37/ The 1962 final demand estimates, used as part of the method to
determine coefficient changes between 1958 and 1962, are the same esti
mates used in the previous chapter on changes in the final demand "bills
of goods."
92
The estimates from both approaches--the individual industry analyses
and the general approach--were combined to complete a coefficient matrix
for 1970. Precedence was given to those coefficients derived from anal
ysis of individual industries, with the residual coefficients determined
through the more aggregative approaches. However, before inclusion in
the final set of coefficient projections, the projections developed in
the individual industry studies were reviewed. In a number of instances,
they were modified on the basis of additional information. The final
input-output coefficient projections, as in other parts of the economic
growth model, were arrived at after a series of successive approximations.
1970 coefficient projections. A change in the unit requirements
(coefficients) for intermediate materials and services affects both the
industry in which the change takes place and the industry which produces
the intermediate good or service. The projections of the input-output
coefficients can, therefore, be described in terms of the change in
input coefficients of the purchasing industry or from the viewpoint of
the net impact on the producing industry.
The section on detailed industry studies discussed coefficient pro
jections in which the analysis was focused on the industry as a consumer
of other industry products. In this section the discussion will examine
the impact of coefficient changes on industries from a different viewpoint--namely, as a seller of output to other industries.
Table V-l summarizes the net impact of the coefficient projections
on the industries producing intermediate goods and services. It shows,
for example, that by 1970 the coal requirements per dollar of output of
all intermediate coal-using industries (excluding final demand use of
coal) is projected to be about 82 percent of the 1958 level. This is a
decline of about 18 percent. This does not mean that coal output is pro
jected to decline by this amount. The industries using coal may grow
sufficiently so that their combined coal requirements may, in fact,
increase. Collectively, however, their coal requirements per dollar of
output are declining.
In a similar fashion column 1 of the table shows the direct effect,
on the output of each industry, of the weighted change (1958-70) in unit
requirements by all intermediate users of the industry*s output. The
second column indicates the average annual rate of change between 1958
and 1970. The third column provides information on how much of the
total output of each industry is consumed by intermediate industries,
as distinguished from consumer, government, investment, and net export
demand.
It might be useful to summarize the major impact of the coefficient
changes for selected industries. In industry 1, livestock and products,
the modest decrease is due in part to the relative decline in the sale
93
of dairy products to food processing, per dollar of output. A contrib
uting factor in this general change is the increased amount of process
ing by the food and kindred products industry.
Industry 2, other agricultural products, is comprised of all farm
crops. The decline here is brought about by several factors, including
reductions as inputs into food processing (industry 14), tobacco (indus
try 15), and textiles (industries 16 and 17). The latter involves the
substitution of synthetics for cotton. This substitution is offset
elsewhere in the table by the growth in the use of synthetic fibers
(industry 28).
The projected growth in iron ore (industry 5) results from the in
creased use of this ore by the primary iron and steel manufacturing
industry. This is due to the fact that the oxygen process, which is re
placing the open hearth process, is limited in the quantity of scrap it
can use. As a result, more pig iron is needed, and blast furnaces which
use more iron ore will supply more of the raw material for steel.
The decline in the coefficient for coal mining (industry 7) results
from three major contributing factors. The first of these is the declin
ing use of coal for process heat. The second is the general decline due
to the competition from other fuels, such as gas and oil. The third
factor is the increasing efficiency in the use of coal. This is true
for uses in processing, generation of electric energy, and steelmaking.
It was noted earlier that there are several reasons, other than a
change in technology, why coefficients can change in an industry. An
illustration of this can be seen in ordnance and accessories (industry
13). A part of the drastic decline projected for industry 13 is due to
the expanding practice of the defense sector to buy all items of a sys
tem directly and provide them for private prime contractors as govern
ment-furnished equipment. This operates, in the input-output system, as
a cutting back in intermediate transactions between the various sectors,
particularly the ordnance and aircraft industries. Another example can
be seen in the aircraft industry, which produces missiles as a secondary
product. That is, proportionately more and more missile production is
being done in the ordnance industry, where it is a primary product, than
in the aircraft industry. As a result, the reduction in the fictitious
sales or transfers of missiles to the ordnance industry shows up as a
coefficient reduction for the output of the aircraft industry.
In the lumber and wood products sector (industry 20) the modest
growth rate of the coefficient has masked the spectacular growth in the
use of plywood. Other lumber products are growing more slowly.
Wooden containers (industry 21) has a very sharp decline in its co
efficient. This decline is attributable to competitive inroads of other
materials in providing alternative packaging or containers. Also some
9^
industries which still use wooden containers are purchasing the raw mate
rials and fabricating the wooden containers themselves. The net result
of these two factors is the sharp drop in intermediate output relative
to 1958.
The printing and publishing industry (26) is another illustration
of coefficient change which is nontechnological. A large part of the
output of printing and publishing is the advertising revenue of news
papers and magazines. In the input-output system, this revenue is
transferred to industry 73, business services, which includes advertising.
In the business services sector, other forms of advertising revenue,
largely TV, are expected to grow at a very rapid rate. Since this is
true, the projected advertising revenues of publications will be a lesser
part of total advertising revenue in 1970 than in 1958. In this industry,
the coefficient decline comes from a slower growth of newspaper and mag
azine advertising than that expected for TV advertising.
The chemicals industry (27) coefficient index is increasing. This
is due to several factors. First, a number of basic chemicals are con
tinuing their growth. An important example is the expansion of chemi
cals into the fertilizer sector.38/ Second, certain customers, such as
the apparel and textile industries, are increasing their use of chemi
cals. As mentioned previously, this is for the treatment of materials
to give them greater qualities of resistance to dirt and wrinkling.
Other uses of chemicals which show rapid growth are fertilizer by the
agricultural sector and oxygen by the iron and steel industry.
Petrochemicals, which are products of the petroleum industry (31),
supply the primary inputs for plastics and synthetics. Petrochemicals
are growing very rapidly. However, this growth is obscured by the rel
atively slower growth of fuel oils, which are the major products of the
petroleum industry. Plastics and synthetic materials (industry 28) also
show an increase which is widespread throughout most intermediate users.
At the same time, it is large in relation to the coefficient changes of
other industries. This change is a continuation of the expansion of
plastics and synthetic materials into a wide range of manufactured items,
such as textiles, containers, building materials, and a wide variety of
household items.
There is a projected decline for the coefficient in industry 33,
leather tanning and industrial leather products. It is related, in part,
to the substitution of other materials--such as "corfam" for leather.
38/ Since fertilizer and basic organic and inorganic chemicals are
both in the same sectors, this change is, in fact, an increase of the
intraindustry transactions or purchases by this industry from itself.
95
The coefficient projections show moderate declines in the use per
unit of output of primary iron and steel (industry 37) and moderate in
creases for primary nonferrous metals (industry 38). The increase in
the nonferrous metal industry is almost entirely due to the expanded use
of aluminum rather than any of the other nonferrous metals.
The decline in the coefficient index of stampings, screw machine
products, and bolts (industry 41) is due partly to the increase in new
and alternative fastening methods. Epoxy glues are an example of these
newer developments.
Industry 51, office computing and accounting machines, shows no
change in its coefficient index. This rather surprising result is due
to two factors. First, much of the output goes into capital equipment
and thus is not in the intermediate output. Second, receipts from leas
ing of business machines are a declining portion of this industry's
output, since more firms are purchasing these machines directly.39/
Industry 56, radio, TV, and communication equipment, shows the
largest coefficient increase of any industry. This is related to a gen
eral and widespread increase in the use of communications. With the ex
pansion of communications equipment, an increase in the proportion of
the cost of each industry's output must go for spare parts for this
equipment. At the same time, and perhaps the most important, there is a
very large expansion in the amount of electronic equipment --guidance,
radar, and sonar--which goes into most military hardware. Closely rela
ted to this industry is sector 57, electronic components. This industry
supplies the basic inputs--transistors, tunnel diodes, and capacitors-used in television sets, military equipment, and computers.
The increase for electric, gas, water, and sanitary services (indus
try 68) reflects the widespread expansion in the power requirements, per
dollar of output, for most manufacturing and a number of nonmanufacturing
industries.
Industry 75, automobile repair and services includes truck and auto
leasing. The increased coefficients projected are related to the expanded
use of motor vehicles, particularly trucks in business and truck and auto
leasing.
Construction coefficient projections. Although the input-output
table shows all new construction as a single industry (industry 11), the
coefficients for this industry are a weighted average of coefficients
39/ Leasing receipts are considered a secondary product of sector 51
and are transferred to the primary industry--in this case sector 73.
96
for many different types of new construction-highway, residential, etc.
Information on the inputs for various types of construction was devel
oped by the Office of Business Economics as part of its basic 1958
input-output study.40/ These estimates were based, in part, on informa
tion obtained by BLS in its studies of direct and indirect employment
generated by various types of construction.41/
The coefficients for the new construction industry in the 1970
interindustry employment table are derived by combining the coefficients
for each type of construction. This method takes into account the rela
tive growth rate projected for each type of construction between 1958
and 1970. In addition, the coefficients for two major types of construc
tion, single family housing and highway construction, have been modified
to take account of changes in material requirements projected to 1970.42/
The study on single family housing indicates the increasing impor
tance of prefabricated components. Although newer materials are being
used, such materials often come from the traditional supplying industries.
As a result, coefficient changes in this respect are relatively modest.
An exception occurs in the use of wood, for which the decline per unit
is noteworthy.
In the case of highways, the type of highway being built is unques
tionably being improved. These better highways require more material
per mile of road. However, the unit of highway construction is $1 mil
lion of contract cost. Changes in this unit are less than the changes
would have been per mile. Further, many of the technological innova
tions in highway construction are laborsaving rather than material
saving. As a result, drastic changes in coefficients are the exception.
Here also, the projected decline in wood use is significant. Blast
ing powder (from chemicals) is declining because of cheaper explosives
rather than a lesser use of blasting. Steel use patterns are changing
in that some of the steel now comes from the prestressed and preformed
components. These components replace some of the former direct steel
use by the contractor.
The input from the stone and clay manufacturing sector is increas
ing due to the type of road. There is an increased use of prefab cement
and concrete products. Bitumens are declining slightly in the Federal
40/ Norman Frumkin, "Construction Activity in the 1958 Input-Output
Study," Survey of Current Business, May 1965, pp. 13-24.
41/ Claiborne M. Ball, "Employment Effects of Construction Expend
itures," Monthly Labor Review, February 1965,pp. 154-158.
42/ Jack Faucett Associates, Projections to 1970 of Input Coeffi
cients for Selected Construction Activities (unpublished), Silver Spring,
Maryland, July 1964.
97
aid highway program. However, little information is available on the
status of non-Federal aid roads. Therefore, the coefficient has not been
changed.
Output Per Man-Hour
Method. The impact of changes in material and service coefficients
on output and, therefore, employment varies from industry to industry.
In some cases, as in coal mining, employment is reduced. In others, such
as plastics and synthetic materials, employment is increased as a result
of the substitution of new materials for older types. In contrast, long
term changes in unit labor requirements or its reciprocal, output per
man-hour, have almost always resulted in reductions in manpower require
ments. The 1970 interindustry employment table attempts to take account
of the combined effect of both of these projected changes. The inputoutput coefficient changes have already been discussed. This section is
concerned with the other element in the table--the projections of output
per man-hour.
The projections of output per man-hour are developed initially on
the basis of preliminary estimates of past trends in industry productiv
ity. The trend during the 1957-63 period is used for the initial pro
jection. Prior to the current period, 1957 is the last year in which
unemployment was close to 4 percent and 1963 is the latest year for
which comprehensive, but still preliminary, estimates of industry output
are available.
Furthermore, the average annual rate of increase in total private
output per man-hour for the 1957-63 period is about the same as that for
the 1957-65 period. This period was used as the basis for projecting
private output per man-hour to 1970 in chapter II.
The initial projections of output per man-hour for a number of in
dustries have been reviewed and modified to take into account a variety
of special factors.
The projections have been modified in most cases where the derived
industry output rate is substantially higher or lower than the past rate.
The historical trend in output per man-hour is, therefore, not considered
consistent with the projected rate of output. For some industries, both
data on employment and rough indicators of output between 1963 and 1965
imply substantial departure from the past rate of productivity. In such
instances, the projections of output per man-hour have been adjusted to
reflect, to some extent, the more recent changes. In a few industries,
the projection based on the 1957-63 trend has been modified, because the
product mix of the projected period is different from that of the past
period. Industry classification problems may also distort past rates of
increase in output per man-hour.
98
In addition, for several industries where there are indications of
significant technological changes, allowances have been made for accel
eration in the rate of productivity gain.
Pro jections--1963-70. As previously indicated in the discussion of
the factors underlying the 1970 projections of potential GNP (chapter
II), the average rate of increase in output per man-hour for all indus
tries in the private sector is 3.2 percent a year.
(Productivity in the
government sector, consistent with the treatment in the national income
constant dollar accounts, is assumed to remain unchanged.)
Within the private sector, there is a wide range of industry pro
ductivity gains around the 3.2 percent average. Agricultural productiv
ity, at 5.5 percent a year, is projected to continue to grow at almost
twice the rate of the nonfarm economy. Within the nonfarm sector, the
manufacturing industries as a whole are projected to achieve a somewhat
higher rate of productivity growth than the nonfarm average of 2.9 per
cent a year.
Some of the nondurable manufacturing industries, particularly the
highly automated processing industries--chemicals, paints, petroleum
refining, etc. --are projected to maintain their higher than average in
creases in productivity. Food processing, tobacco, and the drug, clean
ing, and toilet preparations industries are other nondurable manufactur
ing industries projected to increase faster than the average. Industries
with lower than average gains include the paperboard containers and boxes
and the leather, footwear, and leather products industries. Productivity
gains in remaining nondurable industries are projected at about the 3.2
percent average of the private sector.
In the durable manufacturing sector, above average increases in pro
ductivity are concentrated for the most part in selected machinery indus
tries. These include office computing and accounting machines; service
industry machines; electric transmission and distribution equipment;
household appliances; radio, television and communications equipment;
and miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment. Motor vehicles
and instruments are also projected at above average rates. Lower than
average increases are projected for furniture; stamping and screw machine
products; other fabricated metal products; farm machinery; metalworking
machinery; general industry machinery and equipment; machine shop prod
ucts; electric wiring and lighting equipment; and aircraft and other
transportation equipment. Productivity in the remaining durable manu
facturing industries are projected at about the average rates for the
private sector.
In the nonmanufacturing group, higher than average increases in pro
ductivity are expected to continue in mining, transportation, public util
ities, and communication. On the other hand, there are lower than aver
age increases in trade, services, construction, and finance and real
estate. It should be pointed out that there are difficult conceptual and
99
statistical problems involved in measuring the output of many of the
industries in this latter group. The available measures for these indus
tries may understate output and, therefore, understate productivity
changes.
Output per man-hour for the economy as a whole and for each indus
try was assumed to be the same for all the models in the first approxi
mation for deriving employment. Theoretically, this could prove incon
sistent, since the changing importance of industries with different
levels of productivity could affect the weighted averages for the total
economy and require changes in the aggregate GNP. Actually, the overall
impact of industry shift among the models was less than 0.1 percent a
year. The aggregate was not changed, nor was total employment. The
effect of industry shift, such as it was, is then implicitly reflected
in slight variations in industry productivity among the various models.
Annual Hours Per Worker
To translate output per man-hour projections into output per worker
requires projections of annual hours per worker. To be consistent with
establishment employment as explained in chapter II, hours are defined
as payroll hours per worker, including paid leave, holidays,43/ etc.
Part-time employment, either by dual jobholders or part-time workers,
lowers the level of average hours. An increase in the number of parttime employees results in a decline in average hours, even if the hours
of full-time employees have not changed. The labor force projections
imply substantial increases in workers (youths and women) who may be
seeking part-time work.
Trends in average hours were projected for major industry groups
and then applied to each industry within the group. The projections
were made after consideration of long-term trends in average hours and
changes within subperiods.
For manufacturing, stability in average hours is projected to occur
after some reduction from the high levels of overtime in the 1963-65
period. Annual hours in the nonmanufacturing sector are expected to con
tinue to decline. Hours in the trade and service industries are project
ed to decline faster than the average for nonmanufacturing. Lower hours
in trade and services are a result of increases in part-time employment
and continuation, at a reduced rate, of the secular decline in average
hours of full-time employees.
43/ For a discussion of the concepts of hours paid and hours worked
and their impact on the measurement of output per man-hour see, Trends
in Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy, 1909-1958 (BLS Bulletin
1249, 1960).
100
Average hours in construction are expected to decline at a long
term rate which is below that for the nonfarm private sector. Hours in
the other nonmanufacturing industries--mining, utilities, finance, insur
ance,and transportation--are expected to decline only slightly, as the
long-term secular reduction in hours in these areas is moderated.
Assumptions about the trend in average hours are the same in all of
the models. Differences in the average hours due to industry weighting
are negligible.
The Interindustry Employment Table
The 1970 interindustry employment table combines the projections of
input-output coefficients with those of productivity (adjusted for chang
es in hours of work). These form a comprehensive and consistent set of
estimates of total employment in 1970 attributable to a billion dollars
of delivery to final demand by each industry in the economy. The bil
lion dollars of sales to final demand is at producers' value, 1958
prices. Employment includes proprietors and unpaid family workers, as
well as wage and salary workers. Total employment covers primary employ
ment in the industry producing the particular product or service, and
indirect employment covering employment in each of the supporting indus
tries. These estimates refer to jobs rather than number of persons, be
cause the employment estimates are based primarily on payroll reports
from establishments.
Primary employment covers employment initially required in the in
dustry producing the product or service. Thus, it includes the produc
tion of parts within the industry as well as the production of the final
product. For example, workers employed in both the pig iron stage and
the finishing stages of the steelmaking process are counted as primary
employment in the steel industry. Primary employment is defined to in
clude also some small additional employment in the initial industry, due
to the "feedback" effect. For example, the additional employment in the
steel industry required to produce steel for repair parts for trucks
which transport materials used in the steelmaking process are considered
part of primary employment.
The detailed interindustry employment table is included in the
appendix to this bulletin.
(See table A-3.)
However a summary version
101
of the table (table V-2) is provided below.44/ For the summary table,
the detailed industry estimates of indirect employment have been aggre
gated into nine major sectors. Also, the manufacturing employment esti
mates have been further distributed into durable and nondurable industry
subgroups. As a measure of the extent to which the employment impact
ramifies beyond the initial employment, the table shows the ratio of in
direct to primary employment generated by a billion dollars of delivery
to final demand.45/
An example from the summary table will illustrate the way the inter
industry employment implications are traced for a billion dollars of de
livery to final demand. In industry 22, household furniture, 115,930
jobs would be generated in 1970 by a billion dollars of delivery of the
products of this industry to final demand. Of this total, there would
be 66,470 jobs in the industry itself and an additional 49,460 jobs in
the industries supplying the raw materials, parts, trade and transporta
tion, and miscellaneous services, required to produce the end product.
As the table shows, most of the indirect employment would be in manufac
turing (lumber and wood products, fabrics, and rubber and plastics prod
ucts), with employment of 27,988. There are 2,871 employed in agricul
ture and forestry, and additional numbers employed in the transportation,
trade, and service industries. Thus, for every 100 jobs in the house
hold furniture industry, there would be about 74 additional jobs in the
various supporting industries.
44/ The consolidated 1970 interindustry employment table differs in
several respects from a similar table for the year 1962, published in the
Monthly Labor Review, July 1965, pp. 841-850. The earlier table was
based on the original 1958 input-output coefficients, and no attempt was
made to project them to a later date. However, the unit labor require
ments estimates were brought forward to 1962. The delivery to final
demand was stated in 1962 prices.
The 1970 table is based on projections to 1970 of both the inputoutput coefficient and unit labor requirements. Also, in order to be
consistent with the price level used in the basic input-output table and
the constant dollar estimates of final demand, the billion dollars of
final demand expenditures for the output of each industry are in 1958
prices.
45/ The 1970 interindustry employment table excludes all producing
industries which, in the input-output system, do not purchase products
or services from other industries and would not, therefore, generate in
direct employment requirements. Industries excluded are industry 80,
gross imports of goods and services; industry 83, scrap, used and second
hand goods; industry 84, government industry (covers general government
employment and excludes purchases); industry 85, rest of the world; and
industry 86, household industry (domestics).
102
Analysis of the table reveals a wide range in the total employment
attributable to the sales from the various industries. The figures
range from about 31,000 jobs per billion dollars of sales by industry 71,
real estate and rentals, to about 182,000 jobs per billion dollars of
sales by industry 72, personal and repair services, excluding auto repair.
This is better than a 5 to 1 range.
Variations in employment per billion dollars of output reflect not
only differences in productivity, but also the particular definitions of
output and employment used in this study. Productivity differences may
result from the nature of the industry; capital intensive sectors, such
as petroleum refining and chemicals, generate less employment per dollar
than the service industries. Industries closer to the natural resource
level, such as mining, will generate less indirect employment than those
in the finished manufactured goods stage.
In the input-output system, imports and excise taxes are included
in total output, which is part of the employment-output ratio. An indus
try which has relatively high proportions of either imports or excise
taxes will, therefore, show lower employment per dollar of output. An
other kind of definitional distinction involves the trade sector. Trade
output is defined as the margin between sales and cost of goods sold.
Employment per dollar of output in this industry is, therefore, much
higher than it would be if measured against total sales of wholesale and
retail trade.
At this point, it also bears repeating that employment in this study
refers to full and part-time workers, including the self-employed. Dif
ferences in employment coefficients may be due to variations in the pro
portion of part-time employees. These might be equalized if employment
was translated into hours.
The average employment per billion dollars of final demand in the
total private economy, excluding domestics, is about 100,000 jobs.
About 60 percent of the 100,000 would be in the industries producing,
transporting, and distributing the final goods and services. The other
40 percent would be in the supporting industries.
103
Table V-l.
Index of Coefficient Change, 1958-70—^
(1958-100)
Industry number and title
Index of
coeffi
cient
change
1958-70
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Livestock and livestock products..................
Other agricultural products............ .
Forestry and fishery products..................
Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services..........
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................. .
Nonferrous metal ores mining........................
Coal mining.........................................
Crude ppf-rn1 eum and natural gas.....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............. .
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining... ....... .
New construction 3/...............................
Maintenance and repair construction..... .
Ordnance and a c c e s s o r i e s ... ........... .
Food and kindred products........... ........... .
Tobacco manufactures......... ...................
Broad and narrow fabrics,yam apd thread mills......
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings....
Apparel.............................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
Lumbar and wood products,except containers..........
Wooden containers...................... ...... .
Household furniture...........................
Other furniture and fixtures........................
Paper and allied products,except containers.........
Paperboard containers and boxes... .
Printing and publishing.............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products... .
Plastics and synthetic materials....................
Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations........
Paints and allied products................... .
Petroleum refining and related industries...........
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
Footwear and other leather products
Glass and glass products............................
Stone and clay products........... ..... .
Primary iron and steel manufacturing................
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
Metal containers.o...............................
Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products....
Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts..........
Other fabricated metal products.............. .
Engines and turbines....... ...... ..............
Farm machinery and equipment........................
Construction,mining,and oil field machinery.......
See footnotes at end of table.
96.0
95.0
97.0
101.0
114.0
88.0
82.0
93.0
102.0
85.0
80.0
45.1
101.0
95.0
99.0
106.0
98.0
101.0
103.0
69.0
87.0
100.0
101.0
104.0
89.0
109.0
130.0
123.0
93.0
98.0
130.0
88.0
100.0
99.0
105.0
94.0
106.0
96.0
101.0
85.0
100.0
88.0
97.0
102.0
Inter
Average mediate
annual
output as
rate of
percent
of total
change
output
1970 2/
1958-70
-0.4
-0.2
0.1
1.1
-1.1
-1.7
—0 •6
0.2
-1.4
-1.9
-6.5
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.3
-3.0
-1.2
0ol
0.3
-1.0
0.7
2.2
1.7
—0 •6
-0.2
2.2
-1.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.5
0.5
—0 •3
0.1
-1.4
-1.1
-0.3
0.2
93.8
79.7
88.9
100.0
95.3
89.6
80.5
99.6
97.6
86.8
65.9
8.7
28.2
21.1
91.6
66.3
20.6
48.0
95.3
92.9
15.9
23.4
88.1
97.7
77.1
87.0
92.8
33.5
97.1
50.7
78.1
94.5
16.1
91.8
95.9
97.6
96.2
97.6
86.8
91.4
85.0
49.9
28.2
30.3
Table V-l.
Index of Coefficient Change, 1958-70—^--Continued
(1958-100)
Index of
coeffi
cient
change
Industry number and title
1958-70
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
Materials handling machinery and equipment......
Metalworking machinery and equipment.... ..... .....
Special industry machinery and equipment.... .
General industrial machinery and equipment........
Machine shop products...........................
Office,computing,and accounting machines...... .
Service industry machines.•••••..............•••••
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus........•
Household appliances.......... ..................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment........ .
Radio,television,and communication equipment.....
Electronic components and accessories..... ••••••••
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment...•
Motor vehicles and equipment......... .......... .
Aircraft and parts•••••....•••••.......... ......
Other transportation equipment....... .......... .
Scientific and controlling instruments..........
Optical,ophthalmic,and photographic equipment••...••
Miscellaneous manufacturing......................
Transportation and warehousing...................
Communications; except broadcasting...............
Radio and television broadcasting.••••••..........
Electrie,gas,water,and sanitary services.... ••••••
Wholesale and retail trade................. .
Finance and insurance................... ........
Real estate and rental....... ....... ...........
Hotels;personal and repair services,except auto....
Business services..... ...... ..... .........
Research and development............... .........
Automobile repair and services........... ........
Amusements............ ............... ........
Medical,educational and nonprofit organizations.
Federal Government enterprises.... .............
State and local government enterprises.
Gross imports of goods and services..............
Business travel,enterta’tnrnent ,and
Office supplies......... .
83 Scrap,used and secondhand goods
8 4 Government industry
85 Rest of the world industry
86 Household industry..
. . . •
.......
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
g i £ t s - - - - - r - - - - - - -
................................................................................................................................................................................
110.0
97.0
91.0
113.0
112.0
100.0
119.0
100.0
126.0
106.0
166.0
117.0
105.0
103.0
66.0
100.0
125.0
100.0
100.0
101.0
117.0
100.0
125.0
93.0
100.0
100.0
95.0
119.0
110.0
120.0
90.0
100.0
84.0
98.0
. . . .
100.0
105.0
Inter
mediate
Average
output as
annual
percent
rate of
of total
change
output
1970 2/
1958-70
0.8
-0.2
-0.8
1.0
0.9
mmmm
1.5
....
1.8
0.5
4.3
1.3
0.4
0.2
-3.5
mmmm
1.9
. . . .
mmmmmmmm
0.1
1.3
1.9
-0.6
. . . .
....
-0.4
1.5
0.8
1.5
-0.9
. . . .
-1.5
-0.2
. . . .
0.4
48.5
50.2
24.1
63.7
94.8
27.7
37.0
58.1
22.6
80.5
33.4
79.3
66.6
38.0
20.6
22.9
51.5
37.8
38.9
61.9
50.0
98.8
60.6
27.6
54.1
31.2
20.4
88.8
49.5
46.5
37.2
5.4
78.0
89.0
M
«BM
M
100.0
82.0
mmm mmmm
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
m m m m
mmmm
—
—
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
1/ The index of coefficient change is
the weighted average change in the use of
this industry's output by intermediate
users*
2J This column shows the proportion of
each industry's total output which goes
—
to intermediate users. The remaining por
tion of total output would go to final
demand.
3/ New construction has no coeffi
cients inasmuch as none of its output is
sold intermediate.
105
Table V-2.
Total Employment
y
(Primary and Indirect) 2/ Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970
(Producers' value, 1958 prices)
Employment
Live
stock
and
live
stock
products
1
Total.....
Primary..
Indirect.
125,514
68,724
56,790
Other
Forestry
agricul
and
tural
fishery
products products
2
115,155
79,835
35,320
Agricul
Iron and
tural ,
ferro
forestry,
alloy
and
ores
fishery
mining
services
Nonferrous
metal
ores
mining
Coal
mining
Stone
Crude
and clay
petro
mining
leum and
and
natural
quarry
aa
ing
8
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
95,069
57,475
37,594
180,047
122,144
57,903
39,973
13,218
26,755
53,574
29,064
24,510
63,772
42,120
21,652
25,316
6,381
18,935
70,737
44,726
26,011
6,737
393
662
750
9,138
6,763
2,375
2,898
411
228
565
9,548
7,223
2,325
1,286
726
94
1,195
4,248
2,492
1,756
1,998
370
421
665
11,988
8,946
3,042
1,981
1,047
3,672
604
1,754
1,248
3,716
Distribution of indirect
|
Industry group
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining.....................
Construction..............
(12)
(13-64)
Manufacturing.............
(13,20-23,35-64) Durable..............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable...........
(65)
Transportation............
(66-68)
Communications and public
utilities...............
Trade......................
(69)
(70-71)
Finance, insurance,and
real estate.............
(72-79)
Services and miseellaneous.................. .
(1-4)
Ratio of indirect to primary...........
31,187
271
1,269
8,439
2,103
6,336
2,539
11,259
524
1,467
7,288
2,689
4,599
1,723
16,162
172
549
6,291
4,169
1,528
42,078
247
852
5,225
1,761
3,464
1,442
693
5,397
809
4,431
667
2,383
611
2,582
991
2,574
1,470
3,165
2,100
2,524
2,558
1,629
1,923
2,274
1,784
3,225
1,842
3,763
3,112
5,092
3,781
.84
.51
2.97
.58
Broad
and
Tobacco
narrow
menufabrics,
yarn
factures
and
thread
mills
Mi scellaneous
textile
goods
and
floor
coverings
4,897
5,290
7,289
3,241
.83
.44
.65
.47
Cheadcal
and fertilizer
mineral
mining
Total.....
Primary..
Indirect.
2,122
MainteNew
nance and Ordnance
construe- repair
and action
construe- cessories
tion
10
11
44,713
21,582
23,131
102,694
46,719
55,975
12
91,527
62,716
28,811
13
85,894
41,861
44,033
/
531
1,311
996
8,264
6,144
2,120
3,428
2.02
Food and
kindred
products
14
91,686
24,571
67,115
15
50,424
10,896
39,528
16
17
Apparel
18
91,928
47,044
44,884
66,761
22,405
44,356
124,795
77,606
47,189
Distribution of indirect
Industry group
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining.....................
Construction..............
(12)
Manufacturing.............
(13-64)
(13,20-23,35-64) Durable..............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable...........
(65)
Transportation............
(66-68)
Communications and public
utilities...............
Trade......................
(69)
(70-71)
Finance, insurance and
real estate.............
(72-79)
Services and miscellaneous.......
(1-4)
Ratio of indirect to primary...........
See footnotes at end of table.
239-877 0-66-8
381
1,097
677
7,210
4,554
2,656
4,741
1,753
1,383
655
28,020
23,545
4,475
3,829
613
842
—
14,208
10,916
3,292
2,060
626
499
525
29,150
24,803
4,347
2,229
37,623
316
1,084
8,713
4,195
4,518
4,116
18,464
207
504
7,164
1,846
5,318
1,643
11,362
478
786
14,420
2,942
11,478
3,542
4,350
338
616
22,184
2,755
19,429
3,433
4,989
245
569
25,909
2,914
22,995
2,281
1,293
2,865
1,094
8,618
523
6,614
829
4,151
900
5,738
626
2,590
1,040
5,532
845
5,799
801
5,274
1,288
2,060
1,028
1,482
1,986
1,127
2,020
2,130
1,868
3,574
8,569
2,916
4,539
6,638
7,203
5,703
4,666
5,248
.46
1.05
2.73
3.63
.95
1.98
.61
1.07
1.20
106
Table V-2.
Total Employment
v
(Primary and Indirect)
2/
Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970--Continued
(Producers' value, 1958 prices)
Employment
Miscel
laneous
fabri
cated
textile
products
19
Total.....................................
111,700
47,556
64,144
Lumber
and
wood
products,
except
con
tainers
20
109,904
69,231
40,673
Wooden
con
tainers
21
141,367
77,571
63,796
House
hold
furni
ture
Other
furni
ture
and
fix
tures
Paper
and
allied
prod
ucts,
except
con
tainers
Paperboard
con
tainers
and
boxes
Print
ing and
pub
lishing
Chemi
cals
and
selected
chemi
cal
prod
ucts
22
23
24
25
115,930
66,470
49,460
96,918
52,854
44,064
70,487
32,727
37,760
81,044
36,293
44,751
100,229
65,189
35,040
56,076
23,067
33,009
1,032
287
905
13,887
3,870
10,017
2,755
1,435
1,830
747
11,145
5,243
5,902
4,043
26
27
Distribution of Indirect
Industry group
(1-4)
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining.....................
(12)
Construction............. .
(13-64)
Manufacturing..............
(13,20-23,35-64)
Durable...............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable............
(65)
Transportation.............
(66-68)
Communications and public
utilities................
(69)
Trade.......................
(70-71)
Finance, insurance,and
real estate.......... .
(72-79)
Services and miscellan
eous......... ............
Ratio of indirect to primary............
5,811
333
680
38,786
4,184
34,602
3,009
12,705
280
774
8,384
3,655
4,729
4,712
5,576
333
721
37,564
34,144
3,420
4,590
946
6,894
848
5,330
932
6,193
1,990
1,895
5,696
1.35
Plastics
and
syn
thetic
mat e
rials
28
Total....
Primary.
Indirect
59,923
21,753
38,170
1,331
551
581
25,633
19,449
6,184
2,795
1,825
777
916
17,094
9,165
7,929
3,938
1,085
457
892
25,658
5,718
19,940
4,008
6,093
938
5,826
1,366
4,865
5,170
1,450
3,629
1,407
4,022
1,896
1,670
1,555
1,613
1,730
2,193
2,121
5,746
5,989
5,679
4,852
5,369
4,740
8,902
6,256
.59
.82
.74
.83
1.15
1.23
.54
1.43
Drugs,
clean
ing,
and
toilet
prepara
tions
Paints
and
allied
prod
ucts
Petro
leum
refin
ing and
related
indus
tries
Rubber
and
miscel
laneous
plas
tics
prod
ucts
Leather
tanning
and
indus
trial
leather
prod
ucts
Foot
wear
and
other
leather
prod
ucts
29
65,188
17,378
47,810
30
62,223
19,012
43,211
2,871
408
626
27,988
16,866
11,122
3,125
1,002
31
33,988
6,117
27,871
32
69,458
33,523
35,935
33
1,010
35
34
55,934
36,602
19,332
Class
and
glass
prod
ucts
Stone
and
clay
prod
ucts
36
138,690
101,157
37,533
78,085
46,934
31,151
74,804
42,488
32,316
1,016
634
3,939
735
9,875
4,055
5,820
4,550
1,438
3,791
Distribution of indirect
Industry group
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services.....
(5-10)
Mining.................... .
Construction...............
(12)
(13-64)
Manufacturing..............
(13,20-23,35-64) Durabl.................
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable............
(65)
Transportation.......... .
(66-68)
Cosmunications and public
utilities......... .......
(69)
Trade...................
(70-71)
Finance, insurance and
real estate..............
(72-79)
Services and oiscellaneous.....................
(1-4)
Ratio of indirect to primary......... .
See footnotes at end of table.
966
981
935
18,686
3,795
14,881
3,796
1,687
599
583
18,054
5,791
12,263
2,762
1,479
828
722
21,480
5,632
15,848
4,000
1,152
3,628
1,449
3,911
1,101
1,001
5,157
2,254
1,903
6,120
1.75
596
3,594
1,056
6,331
3,221
3,110
4,125
1,032
535
627
18,734
4,976
13,758
2,943
536
381
323
7,367
2,104
5,263
2,154
411
21,417
3,636
17,781
2,072
726
976
596
13,945
6,053
7,892
2,739
960
4,306
607
3,060
752
3,843
1,340
4,068
222
1,996
2,080
2,686
1,621
1,319
1,631
1,667
1,902
16,872
6,362
6,229
5,179
3,584
6,173
5,093
5,453
2.75
2.27
4.56
1.07
.53
.37
.66
.76
107
Table V-2.
Total Employment
y
(Primary and Indirect) 2/ Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970— Continued
(Producers' value, 1958 prices)
Employment
Primary
iron
and
steel
manufac
turing
37
71,106
3 8 j202
32 j904
Primary
nonferrous
metals
manufac
turing
38
60,857
29,929
30928
Metal
con
tainers
39
70,626
24^371
4 6 i255
Heating,
plumb
ing, and
struc
tural
metal
prod
ucts
40
Stamp
ings ,,
screw
machine
prod
ucts
and
bolts
42
41
83,215
38^503
44^712
Other
fabri
cated
metal
prod
ucts
99,165
58*1158
40^977
Engines
and
tur
bines
43
82,791
40^980
41*811
Farm
machin
ery and
equip
ment
44
Construc
tion,min
ing and
oil field
machin
ery
45
70,776
29^625
41,151
83,100
39 j096
44,004
78,668
37^030
41,638
Distribution of indirect
Industry group
U-4)
Agricultural, forestry,
(5-10)
(12)
(13-64)
{13.20-23.3
{14-19.24-34 ^ * Nondurable............
(65)
(66-68)
Communications and public
(69)
(70-71)
Trade.......................
Finance, insurance,and
(72-79)
Services and miscellan-
434
2,842
1'186
10^540
7,488
3*052
5^022
441
3,551
606
11,217
7*627
3*590
2*903
424
1,326
752
27,309
22,554
4^755
3^839
513
1,153
689
26,274
23 j156
3^118
3^158
562
1,058
670
23,749
19^628
4*121
3^003
619
1,063
636
24,062
20*117
3*945
2^893
461
724
504
25,705
22,578
3'127
2,406
708
705
572
26,115
21^819
4*296
2*615
494
783
567
24,964
21*807
3 *157
2 *,693
1,654
4^500
1,326
4*647
1,118
5*088
1,134
4^885
1,082
4 i315
1,081
4^674
844
4,004
950
4,736
981
4,619
1,814
1,799
1,727
1,824
1,787
1,667
1,480
1,694
1,629
4,908
4,437
4,677
5,086
4,739
5,114
5,027
5,904
4,905
1.03
1.90
1.16
.70
1.39
1.13
.86
Mate
rials
handling
machin
ery and
equip
ment
46
Primary................................
87,580
37*954
49,626
Metal
working
machin
ery and
equip
ment
47
Special
indus
try
machin
ery and
equip
ment
49
48
86,150
52*005
34,145
General
indus
trial
machin
ery and
equip
ment
85,671
44^328
41,343
Machineshop
prod
ucts
50
82,134
41^866
40,268
1.02
Office,
com
puting,
and
account
ing
machines
52
51
117,138
85^503
31,635
Service
indus
try
machines
65,795
35*504
30,291
Elec
tric
indus
trial
equip
ment
and
appa
ratus
1.12
House
hold
appli
ances
54
53
71,304
21,438
49,866
77,424
41,532
35,892
76,978
23,797
53,181
Distribution of indirect
Industry group
(1-4)
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining......................
(12)
Construction...............
(13-64)
Manufacturing..............
(13,20-23,35-64) Durable...............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable............
(65)
Transportation.............
(66-68)
Communications and public
utilities.........
(69)
Trade................. .
(70-71)
Finance, insurance and
real estate..............
(72-79)
Services and miscellaneoua................••••••
Ratio of indirect to primary......... .
See footnotes at end of table.
625
682
595
31,298
27,055
4,243
2,667
493
587
621
19,667
17,173
2,494
1,977
640
679
580
24,574
21,092
3,482
2,383
553
807
597
23,062
20,126
2,936
2,515
<44
797
724
16,(47
14,334
2,313
2,059
628
270
414
14,816
11,168
3,648
1,852
677
737
665
30,156
25,349
4,807
2,799
647
673
533
20,517
16,739
3,778
2,414
657
691
606
29,125
21,767
7,358
2,769
986
5,501
1,026
3,842
1,157
4,812
1,160
5,231
1,030
3,913
736
4,836
1,011
6,334
846
4,175
1,305
5,339
1,844
1,642
1,645
1,552
1,691
1,224
1,934
1,317
1,524
5,427
4,291
4,872
4,789
4,331
5,512
5,554
4,770
11,167
.93
.96
.37
.85
2.33
1.31
.66
.86
2.23
106
Table V-2.
Total Employment 1/ (Primary and Indirect)
2/
Per Billion Dollars of Delivery to Final Demand, 1970— Continued
(Producers' value, 1958 prices)
Employment
Total.....................................
Primary.................................
Indirect.......... .....................
Elec
tric
light
ing and
wiring
equip
ment
Radiotelevi
sion,and
communi
cation
equip
ment
Elec
tronic
com
ponents
and
acces
sories
Miscel
laneous
elec
trical
machin
ery and
equip
ment
Motor
vehicles
and
equip
ment
Aircraft
and
parts
Other
trans
porta
tion
equip
ment
Scien
tific
and
con
trol
ling
instru
ments
Optical,
ophthal
mic, and
photo
graphic
equip
ment
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
85,953
46,230
39,723
76,908
32,168
44,740
81,952
46,812
35,140
81,754
37,118
44,636
67,003
19,653
47,350
73,870
45,264
28,606
91,767
45,892
45,875
81,410
41,891
39,519
75,347
41,918
33,429
Distribution of Indirect
Industry group
(1-4)
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining........... .........
(12)
Construction...............
(13-64)
Manufacturing..............
(13,20-23,35-64)
Durable...............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable............
(65)
Transportation.............
(66-68)
Conmunicatlons and public
utilities...............
(69)
Trade......................
(70-71)
Finance, insurance.,and
real estate.............
(72-79)
Services and miscellan
eous .....................
582
697
516
22,096
16,339
5,757
2,445
719
372
528
27,612
23,003
4,609
2,547
706
504
550
18,430
13,623
4,807
2,225
615
864
525
26,663
19,577
7,086
2,605
595
722
796
27,106
20,565
6,541
3,267
349
432
451
18,284
15,920
2,364
1,593
887
769
597
27,352
23,137
4,215
3,040
1,050
466
477
22,502
17,282
5,220
2,297
565
516
457
15,056
8,488
6,568
2,162
841
6,197
775
4,893
782
5,489
966
4,903
1,063
5,237
731
2,907
965
5,755
815
5,276
885
4,269
1,416
1,322
1,455
1,480
1,626
970
1,565
1,439
1,510
4,932
5,972
4,999
6,009
6,939
2,884
4,944
5,194
8,011
1.39
.75
2.41
.63
.86
Ratio of indirect to primary............
Miscel
laneous
man u
factur
ing
64
Total....
Primary.,
Indirect
89,890
46,857
43,033
Trans
porta
tion
and
ware
housing
Com
munica
tions;
except
broad
casting
1.20
Radio
and
televi
sion
broad
casting
Elec
tric ,
gas,
water,
and
sanitary
services
65
66
67
68
75,989
52,493
23,496
45,745
33,552
12,193
85,764
38,862
46,902
46,150
16,876
29,274
Whole
sale
and
retail
trade
69
1.00
Finance
and
insur
ance
70
137,074
116,010
21,064
.94
Real
estate
and
rental
.80
Hotels;
per
sonal
and
repair
ser
vices,
except
auto
72
71
104,377
82,724
21,653
30,992
8,024
22,968
182,177
152,615
29,562
Distribution of Indirect
Industry group
(1-4)
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining.....................
(12)
Construction........ .
(13-64)
Manufacturing..............
(13,20-23,35-64) Durable...............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable............
(65)
Transportation............
(66-68)
Communications and public
utilities...............
(69)
Trade......................
(70-71)
Finance, insurance and
real estate.............
(72-79)
Services and miscel
laneous ............ .
Ratio of indirect to primary...........
See footnotes at end of table,
1,355
517
721
22,305
10,323
11,982
2,650
575
313
2,953
6,050
3,406
2,644
—
218
83
1,803
4,313
2,293
516
993
6,355
910
3,140
1,963
1,111
309
1,900
3,875
3,810
2,288
1,522
2,096
1,036
162
1,044
5,047
2,009
3,038
1,149
694
115
1,092
5,211
1,178
4,033
1,495
2,890
174
5,166
3,190
1,639
1,551
833
855
250
797
12,355
6,139
6,216
1,496
244
931
1,956
1,948
316
2,044
1,273
1,317
1,656
530
2,104
4,285
2,730
878
2,216
1,351
2,420
864
3,106
2,582
6,174
6,825
3,207
30,588
13,572
8,933
9,206
4,976
5,844
.92
.45
.36
1.73
.18
.26
2,020
725
96
1,117
7,144
3,989
3,155
1.21
—
2.86
1,102
.19
109
Table V-2.
Total Employment
y
(Primary and Indirect)
u Per Billion Dollars of Delivery
to Final Demand, 1970— Continued
(Producers' value, 1958 prices)
Employment
Business
services
73
74
105,260
63^791
41^469
Indirect.
Research
and
develop
ment
Auto
mobile
repair
and
services
76
75
102,231
g p '885
21^346
Amuse
ments
110,382
70'534
39*848
Medical,
educa
tional
and
non
profit
organi
zations
78
77
158,921
137^245
21*676
Federal
Govern
ment
enter
prises
170,611
146^361
24^250
156,233
126*281
29^952
State
and
local
govern
ment
enter
prises
Business
travel,
enter
tain
ment,
and
gifts
79
81
86,870
55^646
31^224
Office
supplies
82
96,130
89,967
13,544
291
1,738
17,387
5,167
1,277
470
Distribution of indirect
Industry group
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery services....
(5-10)
Mining.......... ...........
(12)
Construction...............
(13-64)
Manufacturing..............
(13,20-23,35-64) Durable...............
(14-19,24-34)
Nondurable............
(65)
Transportation.............
(66-68)
Communications and public
utilities................
(69)
Trade.......................
(70-71)
Finance, insurance, and
real estate..............
(72-79)
Services and mlscellan(1-4)
COllS # e .........
Ratio of indirect to primary............
J
744
21,045
4,530
16,515
1,634
721
93
342
7,780
2,495
5,285
1,359
546
392
1,440
17,869
12,360
5,509
1,827
1,993
5,112
2,337
2,775
1,096
4,313
2,728
544
2,387
1,294
7,510
890
1,936
669
221
101
1,026
157
2,187
7,369
2,634
4,735
1,296
1,101
2,358
2,822
577
1,028
6,346
1,885
4,461
10,307
345
1,007
13,085
5,666
3,368
2,298
887
2,413
2,125
2,462
1,668
868
22,227
69,097
14,433
54,664
3,044
924
7,409
1,344
4,393
12,220
2,335
1,485
3,533
3,517
2,235
1,099
1,516
2,329
1,992
7,783
6,633
5,437
6,074
6,520
4,475
3,347
30,282
7,482
.65
.26
.56
.16
.17
.24
.56
J The figures in each column shorn total employment
directly and Indirectly attributable to $1 billion of deliv
ery to final demand by the industry named at the top.
Employment shown does not include any multiplier effects from
respending of income generated.
2/ Primary employment is employment required in the
industry producing the product or service. This includes not
only the employment initially required by this industry but
any indirect employment effect from its supporting industries
requirements.
Indirect employment covers employment in each
of the supporting industries. Employment covers wage and
salary employees, self-employed and unpaid family workers.
Employment is not generated by the following industries
because they do not purchase goods and services from other
industries: Gross imports of goods and services (80); Scrap,
957
used and second-hand goods (83); Rest of the world (85);
Households (86); and Inventory valuation adjustment (87).
There is no employment in Business travel, entertainment and
gifts (81); and Office supplies (82) which are dumny sectors
and serve in an input-output framework as a central distrib
uting mechanism for items produced by various industries but
with a similar distribution pattern.
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of individual items
may not equal totals.
This table represents a sumnary of the information
shown in table A-3.
Chapter VI.
Patterns of Employment, 1970
The 1970 projections of industry employment are derived by con
verting the final demand projections into total employment requirements
through the use of the 1970 interindustry employment table. The derived
industry employment estimates are initially on an input-output industry
basis. They are then adjusted to be consistent with the classification
system underlying the industry estimates of employment regularly compiled
and published by the BLS.
One of the significant adjustments required to convert the employ
ment estimates from the input-output classification to the standard
industrial classification involves the construction industry. In the
input-output system, the construction industry includes force account
construction activity.46/ To derive contract construction employment
consistent with BLS employment classification requires transfer of esti
mated force account construction employees to the industries performing
the construction, i.e., transportation, oil well drilling, utilities,
communications, and government.
The other transfers which affect employment to any significant
extent involve the trade and service sectors. In the input-output sys
tem, these industries are defined on an activity basis so that all serv
ices performed in the trade sector are transferred to the appropriate
services industry and vice versa. For example, automobile repair serv
ices performed by retail automobile dealers are classified in services
rather than trade. This procedure is reversed to obtain employment in
these sectors consistent with the BLS classification system. In this
sense, consistency refers to industry classification and not to types of
workers covered.
The regularly published industry employment estimates of the BLS
are limited to nonagricultural wage and salary employees, excluding
domestics. In order to cover the total work force, the BLS industry
estimates of wage and salary employment for 1957 and other selected
years have, therefore, been expanded to include self-employed, unpaid
family workers, domestics, and agricultural workers. These estimates
are included in the study to provide some historical perspective on the
projected change in the industrial composition of the total work force.
The detailed industry employment projections and estimates for
selected years are summarized by major sectors in tables VI-1 to 4.
Full
46/ Force account construction is work done by government and busi
ness firms using their own employees; that is, not contracted out.
110
I ll
detail is provided in tables VI-5 to 7.47/ In another set of tables,
the projections have been adjusted to exclude the self-employed and unpaid
family workers in nonagricultural industries in order to provide estimates
which are directly comparable with those regularly published by BLS. These
are shown, along with data for earlier years, in appendix tables A-4 and A-5.
The Changing Composition of Employment
To return to the questions raised at the very beginning of the
study:
1.
How might the industrial distribution of employment
in 1970 differ from the distribution in 1965?
2.
Do the projected patterns of employment reflect
a continuation of past trends or modifications
of these trends?
3.
More specifically, what are the implications for
the continuation of the long-term shift from goods
producing to services industries?
4.
To what extent are the results affected by different
assumptions regarding continuation of the sharp in
creases in recent years for consumer and investment
durable goods?
The observations which follow will try to provide some answers, based
on the employment projections for major sectors of the economy. Additional
detail is provided for some of the larger industries and industry groups.
47/ The total civilian employment shown in these tables differs from
that included in table II-l because of differences in the treatment of
government employment. Government employment in table II-l is based on
national income measures of civilian government employment. This is done
in order to assure consistency with the national income measure of govern
ment output, used in deriving total GNP. As part of the conversion of the
employment projections from the input-output classification system to that
used in the BLS establishment series, the government employment estimates
have been adjusted to conform to a level consistent with BLS estimates.
Government employment shown in the tables includes the Armed Forces.
Government employment in the summary tables includes employees of
government enterprises as well as general government workers. In the
detailed industry tables, employment in government enterprises is shown
separately.
112
Employment changes since 1957. In order to put the projections into
some historical perspective, it may be useful to review some of the major
changes in the composition of employment since 1957 when the unemployment
rate was relatively low— 4.3 percent of the civilian labor force. The
years that followed, however, saw a sharp slackening in the rate of eco
nomic growth and a rise in the rate of unemployment. Between 1957 and
1960, the growth rate was only 2.5 percent a year compared with almost
4 percent during the previous decade. Unemployment increased and by 1960
was at 5.6 percent. In the recession of 1961, it jumped to 6.7 percent.
In the recovery years of 1962 and 1963, employment increased rapidly but
not enough to reduce the unemployment rate below 5.6 percent.
Over the 6-year period, 1957-63, total employment (as measured in
tables VI-1 to 7) increased by only 0.7 percent a year compared with an
average annual rate of increase of 1.2 percent over the 1947-57 decade.
In addition, much of the increase from 1957 to 1963 was concentrated in
two sectors: State and local government and personal, business, and pro
fessional services. Trade, domestic service, Federal Government, and
finance, insurance, and real estate also showed above average increases.
In contrast, employment in the other sectors either declined sub
stantially or showed little or no increase in employment opportunities.
The agricultural work force declined by over 1.2 million during the
6-year period> almost 4 percent a year. Employment in mining, transpor
tation, and communications and public utilities all showed substantial
reductions. The largest sector, manufacturing, still had not regained
the 1957 level of employment by 1963. Most of the reduction was in the
durable goods industries. Contract construction employment was only
slightly higher in 1963 than in 1957.
It was during this period that concern began to develop regarding
the impact of technological change on the structure of employment oppor
tunities. It was felt that acceleration of technological change had so
altered the industrial and occupational requirements for manpower that
there existed the very real prospect that expansion of the economy would
not provide jobs for those "structurally" unemployed, particularly "bluecollar" workers with limited skills.
Economic developments since then have served to put into perspective
the problems of the structurally unemployed, including those groups requir
ing special training and assistance to meet the changing manpower require
ments of an expanding economy.
Between 1963 and 1965, due in part to the cut in personal and corpo
rate taxes under the Revenue Act of 1964, real growth in the economy
exceeded 5 percent a year. Expansion in aggregate demand, supported by
active manpower training and education programs, resulted in an increase
in employment of almost 3.5 million in 2 years, or 2.4 percent per year-
113
more than twice the long-term rate. Most of the increase in employment
occurred in 1965, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.6 percent for
the year as a whole and to below 4 percent by the year's end.
State and local government, trade, and personal, business, educa
tional, and medical services continued as major sources of increased
employment. In the goods producing area, employment in agriculture con
tinued its long-term decline, but mining stabilized at about the 1963
level. However, employment in construction and manufacturing, partic
ularly in durable manufacturing, increased dramatically, reversing the
previous trend. With both consumer and investment expenditures for dura
ble goods increasing at twice the rate of real output for the economy,
manufacturing employment expanded sufficiently to reach an alltime high
and exceed the previous peak levels of World War II and the Korean con
flict. Most of the gain was in durable manufacturing. This, along with
the growth in construction, provided expanded employment opportunities
for "blue-collar" workers, including those with limited skills. The
general acceleration in employment also provided the basis for some im
provements in the job situation for youths and nonwhites--groups that had
been particularly affected by the sluggish growth in the past.
Employment increased sharply, particularly in manufacturing, during
the latter part of 1965 and continuing into 1966. This was due to the
expansion in demand resulting from Viet Nam defense expenditures, the
continuing investment boom for plant and equipment, and strong consumer
demand for durables.
However, the growth in demand for consumer durables and capital
goods could not continue indefinitely at the unusually high rates experi
enced during the past few years. In addition, the Viet Nam conflict is
projected to be resolved over the next few years, permitting a cutback in
military expenditures.
What are the implications for the industrial distribution of employ
ment of a return to more sustainable patterns of final demand and lower
levels of defense expenditures? Within the general framework of the study,
the employment projections provide some answers to this and related ques
tions raised at the beginning of the chapter. The analysis which follows
is based, in part, on computations of average annual rates of change in
employment between 1965 and 1970. The conversion of the employment pro
jections into average annual rates carries no implication regarding the
timing of these changes. In fact, for some industries affected by the
current expansion in expenditures for defense and for consumer and pro
ducer durable goods, employment may increase more during the early part
of the 5-year period and less, or even be reduced, during the latter part
of the decade.
lib
Employment Projections--1970
As indicated in chapter II, total employment requirements over the
next 5 years are projected to increase on the average about 1.9 percent
a year under the 4-percent unemployment assumption and about 2.2 percent
under the 3-percent unemployment assumption. Both the 1.9- and 2.2-per
cent rates of employment increase are substantially higher than that for
most of the postwar period. The higher rates of increase are attributable
primarily to the accelerated growth in the labor force. Adding to the in
crease in employment is the assumed reduction in the unemployment rate,
from the 4.6 percent average in 1965 to 4 or 3 percent by 1970. The pro
jected increases amount to 1.5-1.7 million jobs a year. Achievement of
such increases represents a major challenge, but these increases were
actually exceeded in the employment gains recorded in 1965.
Within the overall employment increases projected to 1970, the pro
jections for individual industries show highly divergent trends for any
one model, as well as variations among the alternative models. The al
ternative models refer to the basic 4-percent unemployment model, but the
differences between the basic 4-percent model and either of the alterna
tives generally can be applied to the basic 3-percent unemployment model.
The largest annual rate of employment increase, about 5 percent, is
projected for State and local government. Growth in this sector is attrib
utable to the continued expansion in schools, medical care, and other public
services for a growing population. Federal grants would provide additional
stimulus. In contrast, Federal Government civilian employment is projected
to increase only moderately from the 1965 level.
By 1970, State and local government employment would amount to about
10 million workers. This is about 12 percent of the total work force,
compared with somewhat more than 10 percent in 1965. The ratio of State
and local government to Federal Government employment would increase from
about 3 to 1 to almost 4 to 1. Total government employment would account
for about 15 percent of total employment compared with 13.5 percent in 1965.
The projection of employment in personal, business, private educa
tional, and medical services in the basic models shows the next largest
increase--almost 4 percent a year. This reflects the continued shift in
demand for such services and the lower than average increases in produc
tivity (as commonly measured) in the individual industries providing these
services.
The rate of increase for these services would be lower in the high
durable alternative, but it is still substantially higher than the over
all average increase. By 1970, this major group of services would increase
to 15.7-16.9 percent of total employment, compared with about 15 percent
in 1965. For all except the high durables alternative, this represents an
acceleration in the past rate of growth in employment.
115
Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate in the basic models
is projected to increase at a faster rate than the average. It would ac
count for 4.7 percent of the total by 1970— somewhat larger than that in
1965. Under the high durable alternative, its share would remain about
the same as in 1965.
Communications and public utilities are characterized by rapid in
creases in productivity. Thus, although services provided by these indus
tries are expected to increase sharply, employment would remain at about
the 1965 levels and decline as a proportion of total employment— from about
2 percent in 1965 to 1.8 percent in 1970.
Employment in the trade sector is dependent to a considerable extent
on activity in the goods producing areas. The projections of employment
in trade vary, depending on the relative importance of goods production
in the various models. Productivity gains in trade are lower than the
average for the total private economy. As a consequence, the employment
increases (1.6-2.1 percent a year) are above the rate for the private
economy and about the average for total employment in the basic model;
somewhat higher in the high durables alternative and lower in the high
services model. As a result, trade is projected to remain about the same
proportion of total employment, 20 percent, as in 1965. Trade accounts
for such a large number of workers, over 15.1 million in 1965 compared
with 18.4 in manufacturing, that the employment increase is one of the
largest among the various sectors— an additional 1.3-1.7 million by 1970.
Total transportation employment has been declining during much of
the postwar period, primarily due to the reduction in railroad employment.
Employment has increased within the past few years, largely in trucking
and air transportation. Although productivity gains in transportation are
above average, projected demand is sufficient to provide the basis for
continued further small gains in employment. The increase would not be
enough to arrest the continuing decline in the sector's share of total
employment— from 4.3 percent in 1957, to 3.7 percent in 1965, to 3.4
percent in 1970. Because transportation involves both personal transpor
tation and transportation of goods, changes in this sector are not affect
ed as much as those in trade, which is primarily dependent on distribution
of goods. Thus, the projections of transportation employment are approxi
mately the same for all models.
Within the goods producing sectors, agricultural employment is pro
jected to continue its long-term decline, both in absolute numbers and
as a percentage of the total work force. The decline is due primarily
to very high rates of increase in agricultural productivity (about 5.5
percent a year), with only moderate increases in the demand for farm
products. In line with the long-term shift in the composition of the
agricultural work force, most of the decline is projected to be among
the self-employed and family workers; the number of wage and salary
employees would remain relatively stable.
116
By 1970, the agricultural work force would account for only 5 percent
of total employment, compared with about 9 percent in 1957 and 6 percent
in 1965. This is one of the lowest ratios of any nation in the world, and
it reflects the major technological revolution that has taken place and is
projected to continue in this sector of the economy. Part of the reduc
tion in farm employment is accompanied, of course, by increases elsewhere
in the economy--in the industries producing farm machinery and tractors,
fertilizer, feed, petroleum products, trucks and autos, etc. Nevertheless
the shift from farm to nonfarm jobs presents major problems of transition,
which may be made more difficult by developments in the manufacturing
sector, to be discussed shortly.
Mining employment, until recently, had been decreasing for many years
This is attributable in large part to substantially better than average
gains in productivity and relative declines in the demand for coal--one of
the larger mining industries. Employment in mining is projected to contin
ue to decline, although at a reduced pace. By 1970, total mining employ
ment is projected to decline to about three-quarters of 1 percent of total
employment, compared with somewhat less than 1 percent in 1965. The reduc
tions would occur chiefly in coal mining and crude petroleum production.
Contract construction employment is projected to show the largest
percentage increase of any major goods producing industry. This is due
to projected increases in construction activity to meet rising State and
local government needs, increased housing requirements, and expanding
business investment in plant. However, as noted in chapter IV on final
demand, the major impetus arises from the expansion in construction ex
penditures by State and local government, with more moderate increases
accounted for by the other two categories. In addition, productivity
gains in construction (as conventionally measured) are lower than the
average for the economy. The combined effect of these two factors is
a continuation of the very substantial rates of increase in construction
employment by 1970. Construction's share of total employment would be
increased from 5.4 percent of the total in 1965 to about 5.6 percent or
more by 1970. The increase is reduced in the high services model and is
a little higher than the average for the economy as a whole.
What are the prospects for increased employment in manufacturing
industries? Here the projections differ considerably, depending on the
variations among the alternatives. This is particularly true in the
durable goods industries. Nondurable industries, in the aggregate, are
projected to increase by about 0.7-1.0 percent a year, considerably be
low the average for the economy as a whole or for the total private
economy. This is, however, a significant improvement over the small
gains experienced during most of the postwar period, but there is some
decline from the recent very high rates of increase.
The modest increase in employment in nondurable goods represents
largely offsetting changes within the group as a whole. Employment in
117
food processing, tobacco, textiles, and petroleum is projected to decline.
Employment is projected to increase in apparel, paper and paper products,
paperboard and boxes, printing and publishing, chemicals, plastics and
synthetics, drugs and toilet preparations, and rubber and miscellaneous
products.
The explanation for the divergent projections of employment among
the industries varies from industry to industry. The decline in employ
ment projected for food processing, the largest single industry in the
group, reflects moderate increases in demand with better than average
increases in productivity. Demand for plastics and synthetic materials
is projected to increase very rapidly, but this is largely offset by
better than average increases in productivity. Average increases in the
demand for petroleum products are more than offset by higher than average
increases in productivity, resulting in a decline in employment
requirements.
As would be expected, the estimates of employment in the durable
goods area are much more affected by the various alternatives than the
nondurable goods projections. In the basic models, the projected rates
of employment increase for durable goods industries are approximately
the same as those for nondurable manufacturing. Both are considerably
below the average for the economy as a whole or for the private sector.
Here, too, the overall increase in employment reflects substantial
increases for a number of industries, offset in part by reductions or
very little change for a number of basic industries. Included among the
latter are ordnance, lumber, steel, communications equipment (defense
part), motor vehicles, and aircraft (defense part). Increases are fairly
general for all the machinery industries (particularly computers), fabri
cated metal products, furniture and fixtures, stone, clay and glass prod
ucts, nonferrous metals, the nondefense part of communications equipment
(e.g., color television), electrical transmission and distribution equip
ment, household appliances, electronic components, civilian aircraft,
railroad and other transportation equipment, instruments, and optical and
photographic equipment.
In the aggregate, the basic 4-percent unemployment model indicates
modest increase in employment for durable goods industries of about 0.7
percent a year between 1965 and 1970. However, the high durable alter
native, with its assumption of higher than average increases in demand
for consumer and producer durables, indicates a rate of increase twice
as high--1.5 percent a year. This is lower than the very unusual in
creases from 1963-65. It is about the same as the projected rate of
increase in employment for the total private economy.
118
The high service model, on the other hand, would lower the potential
increase in durable goods manufacturing employment to only 0.4 percent
a year. In absolute numbers, the difference in 1970 between the high
durable and high service models is substantial; the former indicating
an increase of 826,000 from 1965 to 1970, the latter an increase of only
194,000. The differences affect almost all the durable manufacturing in
dustries, except those which are heavily dependent on defense expenditures.
For manufacturing as a whole, covering both nondurable and durable
goods industries, the range of projections of manufacturing employment
in the alternative models indicate that there is some prospect for in
creased growth in factory jobs of about 0 , 5 percent a year between 1965
and 1970, even under the lowest estimate. The high durable set of pro
jections implies an increase of about 1.2 percent a year.
(The 3-percent
unemployment model, roughly adjusted to reflect a high durable goods
alternative, would show an even higher rate of increase--about 1.5 percent
a year.)
The projected increase in manufacturing employment represents a
reversal of the 1957-63 experience when manufacturing employment showed
no increase over the period. It should be noted, however, that the pro
jected rate of increase in employment in manufacturing, even at the upper
end of the range of estimates, would still be substantially lower than
that for the economy as a whole. The projections also represent a slow
down from the more recent gains in manufacturing employment in 1965 and
early 1966. The basic models imply even smaller increases in manufac
turing employment between 1965 and 1970. Under all the alternatives,
manufacturing would continue to decline as a proportion of total employ
ment from 25.9 percent of the total in 1957, to 24.8 percent in 1965, and
to 23.1-23.9 percent by 1970.
A major qualification needs to be made regarding these projections.
Expansion of defense expenditures, if the Viet Nam buildup continues,
will involve increased employment in defense oriented manufacturing in
dustries and their supplying industries. The projections developed by
BLS assume that by 1970, the Viet Nam conflict will have been resolved
and defense expenditures would be reduced to a more normal level. Dur
ing the period of the buildup, manufacturing employment may exceed the
projected employment in a number of industries.
The military buildup since the early part of 1965, coupled with a
continuation of the capital goods boom and consumer demand for durables,
has resulted in greater than average increases in manufacturing employ
ment, particularly in the durable goods industries. By mid-1966, manu
facturing employment had almost reached the levels projected for 1970
under the high durable goods alternative.
119
A resolution of the Viet Nam situation and a return to more sustain
able rates of increase in the demand for durable goods would imply sub
stantial reductions in employment in some industries, particularly defense
oriented industries--ordnance, aircraft, communication equipment and elec
tronic components, shipbuilding, etc. This still leaves room for growth
in employment for a number of industries under the high durables alternative--furniture, paper, printing and publishing, chemicals, computers, and
selected metal fabricating and machinery industries. However, the projec
tions indicate little increase or even reductions from mid-1966 levels for
two of the basic industries--automobiles and steel.
The structure of employment which emerges from these projections is
a continuation of the long-term shift towards the service industries.
The shift is at a somewhat reduced rate, however, compared with the period
1957-63 when manufacturing employment showed no growth for a period of 6
years.
Goods producing industries declined from about 42 percent of total
employment in 1957 to 37 percent in 1965. The projections indicate a
further decline by 1970 for all the alternative models. By 1970, the *
share would be down to 34 or 35 percent of the total.
Goods related industries, i.e., trade and transportation, have been
about 24 percent of total employment and are projected to remain at about
the same proportion.
Service industries, including utilities and government, increased
from 34 percent of the total in 1957 to 39 percent in 1965. They are
projected to increase to 41 or 42 percent of the total by 1970.
The differential impact on employment of changes in final demand,
input-output coefficients and productivity, varies from industry to in
dustry; the shift towards services seems to be largely due to the lower
rate of productivity gains among the major service sectors relative to
goods producing industries, and partly to changes in the structure of
final demand. Even in the high durables alternative, service industries
are projected to increase their share of total employment.
The shift to services is also reinforced by the direction of the
interindustry coefficient changes. The effect of coefficient changes
on several service industries (e.g., electric, gas, water, communications,
business services, and auto repair) is to increase employment. The
changes are largely offsetting among the goods producing industries.
However, the effect of coefficient changes on the major goods related
industry, trade, is to reduce employment.
The full implications of these results for manpower policy, train
ing programs, and occupational outlook will be explored as part of the
further review of the projections and evaluation of the results. This
will involve conversion of the employment projections into occupational
requirements.
120
Table VI-1.
Civilian Employment,— by Major Industry Group,
Selected Years and Projected 1970
(In thousands)
Selected years
Major industry group
1957
1963
Projected 1970
3 percent
unemploy
ment
1965
Basic
model
Total— ^........................................................
Agriculture................ .................................
Mining.......................................................
Construction.................................................
Manufacturing................................................
Durable....................................................
Nondurable........................................... .
Transportation....................... ............. .........
Communications and public utilities........................
Trade................................... ........... .........
Finance, insurance, and real estate..... .......... .......
Services and miscellaneous..................................
Government.................................................
Federal..................................... ...............
State and local...........................................
Private households..........................................
68,006
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
durables
High
services
70,727
74,190
82,823
81,613
81,613
81,613
4,946
671
3,728
17,396
9,856
7,540
2,654
1,451
14,296
3,201
10,503
9,225
2,358
4,080
624
4,620
19,282
11,134
8,148
2,799
1,523
16,718
3,896
13,598
12,683
2,524
10,159
3,000
4,080
618
4,576
19,075
2,656
4,585
662
3,987
18,383
10,626
7,757
2,721
1,519
15,114
3,371
11,198
10,046
2,379
7,667
2,604
4,080
622
4,701
19,519
11,452
8,067
2,781
1,478
16,779
3,665
12,802
12,236
2,497
9,739
2,950
4,080
616
4,423
18,856
10,820
8,036
2,760
1,514
16,374
3,846
13,783
12,411
2,508
9,903
2,950
68,006
70,727
74,190
9,225
61,502
26,741
16,950
17,811
10,046
64,144
27,617
17,835
18,692
82,823
12,683
70,140
28,606
19,517
22,017
81,613
7,616
60,391
28,362
16,354
15,675
81.613
12,236
69,377
28,922
19,560
20,895
81.613
12,411
69,202
27,975
19,134
22,093
6,222
863
3,691
17,586
10,099
7,487
2,888
1,555
13,466
2,803
8,873
7,616
2,217
5,399
2,444
6,868
11,022
8,053
2,770
1,504
16,535
3,838
13,405
12,262
2,510
9,752
2,950
Addendum:
Government...................................................
Private......................................................
Goods producing industries...............................
Goods related industries 3 / ..............................
Service industries................. ......................
12,262
69,351
28,349
19,305
21,697
Percent distribution
Agriculture..................................................
Mining.......................................................
Construction.................................................
Manu fac tur ing................................................
Durable......... ................................ ....... .
Nondurable................. ........... .................
Transportation...............................................
Communications and public utilities........................
Trade........................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate................ .......
Services and miscellaneous................................
Government........................ ....... ...................
Federal..... ...... ..................... ..................
State and local...........................................
Private households..........................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
9.15
1.27
5.43
25.86
14.85
6.99
.95
5.27
24.60
13.94
11.01
10.66
4.25
2.29
19.80
4.12
13.05
4.93
.75
5.58
23.28
13.44
9.84
3.38
1.84
20.19
4.70
16.42
15.31
3.05
12.27
3.62
5.00
.76
5.61
23.37
13.51
9.87
3.39
1.84
20.26
4.70
16.43
15.02
3.08
11.95
3.61
5.00
.76
5.76
23.92
14.03
9.88
3.41
1.81
20.56
4.49
15.69
14.99
3.06
11.93
3.61
5.00
.75
5.42
23.10
13.26
9.85
3.38
20.21
6.18
.89
5.37
24.78
14.32
10.46
3.67
2.05
20.37
4.54
15.09
13.54
3.21
10.33
3.51
11.20
3.26
7.94
3.59
3.75
2.05
4.53
14.85
13.04
3.33
9.71
3.76
1.86
20.06
4.71
16.89
15.21
3.08
12.13
3.61
Addendum:
Government............................................. ......
Private.................................................. .
Goods producing industries...............................
Goods related industries 3 / ..............................
Service industries........................................
1/ Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed, and
unpaid family workers.
2 See footnote 3, table II-l.
3/ Trade and transportation; part of the latter is for
transportation of persons.
J
100.0
11.20
88.80
41.71
24.05
23.05
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
13.04
86.96
37.81
23.97
25.18
13.54
86.46
37.22
24.04
25.19
15.31
84.69
34.54
23.56
26.58
15.02
84.98
34.74
23.65
26.59
14.99
85.01
35.44
23.97
25.60
15.21
84.79
34.28
23.44
27.07
NOTE: Because of rounding, sums of Individual items
may not equal 100.
121
Table VI-2.
Change in Civilian Employment,^ by Major Industry Group,
Selected Periods and Projected 1965-70
Projected 1965-70
Selected periods
Major industry group
1957-65
1957-63
1963-65
3 percent
unemploy
ment
Basic
model
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
durables
High
services
Aggregate change
Total..........................................
Agriculture.................................
Mining............. .........................
Construction................................
Manu fac turing...............................
Durable....................................
Nondurable................................
Transportation..............................
Communications and public utilities........
Trade........................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate.......
Services and miscellaneous.................
Government..................................
Federal....................................
State and local...........................
Private households........ .................
6.184
2.721
3.463
8.633
7,423
7,423
7.423
-1,637
-1,276
-192
37
-190
-243
53
-234
-104
830
398
1,630
1,609
141
1,469
-361
-9
259
987
770
217
67
799
-52
-505
-38
633
899
508
391
78
4
1,604
525
2,400
2,637
145
2,492
396
-505
-44
589
692
396
296
49
-15
1,421
467
2,207
2,216
131
2,085
346
-505
-40
714
1,136
826
310
60
-41
1,665
294
1,604
2,190
118
2,072
346
-505
-46
436
473
194
279
39
-5
1,260
475
2,585
2,365
129
2,236
346
3,463
----2,642
876
885
881
8.633
2,637
5,996
989
1,682
3,325
7.423
2,216
5,207
732
1,470
3,005
7.423
2,190
5,233
1,305
1,725
2,203
7.423
2,365
5,058
358
1,299
3,401
-201
296
797
527
270
-167
-36
1,648
568
2,325
2,430
162
2,268
160
68
818
170
695
821
21
212
Addendum:
Total............... ..........................
Government..................................
Private....................... ..............
Goods producing industries...............
Goods related industries 2 / ..............
Service industries........................
6.184
2,430
3,753
-745
1,481
3,017
2.721
1,609
1,111
-1,621
596
2,136
3/
Average annual rate of change—
Total........................ ..................
Agriculture.................................
Mining.......................................
Construction............................... .
Manufacturing............. ..................
Durable....................................
Nondurable................................
Transportation.... .........................
Communications and public utilities........
Trade................ .......................
Finance, insurance, and real estate.......
Services and miscellaneous.................
Government...................................
Federal................. ..................
State and local.... ......................
Private households..........................
1.1
-3.8
-3.3
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.4
-0.8
-0.3
1.5
2.3
3.0
3.5
0.9
4.5
0.8
0.7
2.4
-3.8
-4.1
-3.8
-0.6
3.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
-1.4
-1.2
1.0
2.2
2.9
3.2
1.0
4.1
1.4
2.8
3.9
1.4
1.2
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.3
4.4
0.5
5.6
-1.0
2.2
-2.3
-1.2
3.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
-2.3
-1.4
-2.3
-1.2
3.3
-2.3
-1.4
2.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.4
-0.2
1.8
2.6
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.4
-0.6
2.1
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.3
-0.1
2.1
1.6
1.7
2.7
4.0
2.7
4.2
4.3
2.9
4.0
4.8
3.7
4.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
5.8
2.9
4.9
2.5
4.9
2.5
5.3
2.5
1.9
4.3
1.5
0.3
1.4
3.4
1.2
Addendum:
Total..........................................
Government...................................
Private......................................
Goods producing industries...............
Goods related industries 2 / ..............
Service industries........................
J
1.1
3.5
0.8
-0.3
1.1
2.2
1 Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed, and
unpaid family workers.
2/ Trade and transportation; part of the latter is for
transportation of persons.
3/ Compound interest rates based on terminal years.
239-877 0 -66— 9
0.7
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.9
3.2
0.3
-1.0
4.4
4.8
4.1
4.0
0.7
0.5
3.3
3.0
0.9
1.9
2.3
0.6
2.1
2.1
1.6
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
NOTE:
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
122
Table VI-3. Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry,
Selected Years and Projected 1970
(In thousands)
Selected years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
3 per
cent
unem
ploy
ment
1965
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
Total— ^ ...................... ................................
66.336
70.127
70.727
72.194
74,190
82.823
81,613
81.613
81,613
5,844
5,190
4,946
4,761
4,585
4,080
4,080
4,080
4,080
1,2
Agriculture.........................................
3
Forestry and fishery products......................
4
Agricultural.forestry,and fishery services........
110
211
109
110
114
115
119
118
119
116
212
219
224
228
242
241
241
241
29
3
Iron and ferroalloy ores m i ning...................
38
28
28
28
30
30
30
31
6
Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................
57
56
54
53
55
52
52
53
51
7
Coal mining.........................................
224
161
157
156
150
133
131
131
131
8
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..... .............
350
319
310
309
302
262
260
260
261
9,10
Nonmetallic mining and quarrying..................
120
123
122
122
125
147
145
147
144
3,987
4,620
4,576
4,701
4,423
11,12 Construction........................................
3,521
3,689
3,728
3,831
13
Ordnance and accessories...........................
145
269
266
247
236
235
235
236
234
14
Food and kindred products..........................
1,816
1,803
1,793
1,783
1,778
1,735
1,725
1,705
1,714
IS
Tobacco manufactures...............................
16
Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills....
17
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...
105
105
105
107
18
Apparel..............................................
1,284
1,363
1,372
1,389
19
95
90
89
89
84
81
80
79
80
609
579
569
571
579
565
558
561
558
111
1,445
101
1,540
99
104
99
1,520
1,572
1,520
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.........
127
147
151
155
162
179
176
178
177
20,21 Lumber and wood products...........................
711
685
683
693
699
668
661
676
646
22
Household furniture................................
273
290
294
308
326
375
371
400
369
23
Other furniture and fixtures.......................
107
118
118
122
127
159
157
166
152
24
Paper and allied products,except containers.......
400
429
430
432
436
497
491
494
490
25
Paperboard containers and boxes...................
165
187
26
Printing and publishing............................
948
1,004
190
1,010
194
202
229
226
229
226
1,024
1,053
1,228
1,213
1,217
1,215
27
Chemicals and selected chemical products..........
403
417
411
411
422
428
424
427
422
28
Plastics and synthetic materials..................
143
165
175
183
199
224
221
226
219
29
Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations............
190
208
221
223
221
239
235
233
238
30
Paints and allied products................. .......
61
63
63
64
65
65
64
65
59
31
Petroleum refining and related industries.........
224
195
189
183
178
167
164
164
165
496
32
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........
346
411
420
436
466
505
499
514
33
Leather tanning and industrial leather products...
41
36
34
35
35
33
32
33
32
34
Footwear and other leather products...............
320
329
318
316
321
332
326
326
326
35
Glass and glass products.......................
144
160
162
164
169
182
179
184
179
36
Stone and clay products............................
434
450
456
464
468
492
488
498
477
37
Primary iron and steel manufacturing..............
847
841
845
899
935
940
931
966
910
38
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing...........
308
327
330
334
363
389
386
399
379
39
Metal containers....................................
70
70
72
73
73
76
75
75
75
40
Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products....
429
416
425
446
467
521
518
533
504
41
Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts........
253
282
287
292
317
352
349
364
343
42
Other fabricated metal products...................
343
379
385
398
425
476
471
487
464
43
Engines and turbines...............................
90
84
85
87
90
90
89
93
44
Farm machinery and equipment.......................
116
115
123
129
138
149
147
154
141
45
Construction,mining,and oil field machinery.......
145
149
152
163
172
203
201
209
194
46
Materials handling machinery and equipment........
61
62
72
77
80
83
78
66
79
88
123
Table VI-3.
Civilian Employment,—^ by ISP Industry--Continued
Selected Years and Projected 1970
(In thousands)
Selected years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
1965
3 per
cent
unem
ploy
ment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
339
Basic
model
47
Metalworking machinery and equipment..............
246
274
283
296
314
352
349
363
48
Special industry machinery and equipment..........
164
174
175
184
193
220
217
228
209
49
General industrial machinery and equipment........
210
235
240
249
264
283
280
292
271
50
Machine-shop products..............................
156
189
191
193
205
233
231
238
230
51
Office,computing,and accounting machines..........
133
159
163
175
197
238
234
263
230
52
Service industry machines..........................
90
101
102
106
111
110
109
115
105
53
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......
304
350
339
341
366
395
392
410
378
Household appliances...............................
148
150
156
161
167
182
179
192
179
Electric lighting and wiring equipment............
124
147
153
159
170
194
191
198
188
56
Radio,television,and communication equipment.....
400
555
549
532
568
530
523
548
516
57
Electronic components and accessories.............
179
266
262
265
304
325
322
333
318
58
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment..
97
103
99
94
101
113
112
117
112
59
Motor vehicles and equipment..... .......... .
604
693
742
757
852
789
778
826
763
60
Aircraft and parts.................................
785
635
640
605
618
551
551
547
546
61
Other transportation equipment....................
218
219
231
248
274
324
320
336
311
275
62
Scientific and controlling instruments............
223
249
253
254
262
281
278
m
0
0
CM
54
55
63
Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment....
103
112
115
119
127
140
138
142
138
64
Miscellaneous manufacturing.................... .
395
418
414
424
451
487
481
496
479
65
Transportation and warehousing....................
2,703
2,661
2,654
2,672
2,721
2,799
2,770
2,781
2,760
66
Communications;except broadcasting................
775
732
727
747
775
742
732
718
735
67
Radio and television broadcasting.................
89
97
101
105
110
123
121
121
121
68
Electric,gas.water,and sanitary services..........
622
624
623
626
634
658
651
639
658
69
Wholesale and retail trade............... .........
13,589
14,262
14,296
14,677
15,114
16,718
16,535
16,779
16,374
70
Finance and insurance...........................
2,137
2,410
2,471
2,544
2,608
3,031
2,994
2,864
2,999
71
Real estate and rental.............................
676
707
730
748
763
865
844
801
847
72
Hotels{personal and repair services.except auto...
2,503
2,683
2,714
2,804
3,161
3,102
2,953
3,111
73 74 Business services and research and development....
2,746
2,866
2,201
1,526
2,008
2,064
2,139
2,781
2,752
2,753
75
Automobile repair and services...... .............
399
480
452
466
476
535
527
507
527
76
Amusements........... .................... ..........
635
689
698
733
753
889
879
830
883
77
Medical.educational and nonprofit organizations...
3,486
4,046
4,246
4,409
4,559
5,871
5,786
5,399
6,159
78
Government enterprises - Federal....... ..........
79
Government enterprises - State and local..........
84
Government, total............................... .
86
See NOTE.
See N0TE.
7,839
8,890
9,225
9,565
10,046
12,683
12,262
12,236
12,411
Federal...........................................
2,191
2,340
2,358
2,348
2,379
2,524
2,510
2,497
2,510
State and local...................................
5,648
6,550
6,868
7,248
7,667
10,159
9,752
9,739
9,901
2,550
2,694
2,656
2,683
2,604
3,000
2,950
2,950
2,950
Private households.................................
1/ Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and unpaid
NOTE:
ISP»interindustry sales and purchases.
ISP 78
family workers.
and 79 are included in ISP 84.
2/ See footnote 3, table II-l.
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not
equal totals.
124
Table VI-4. Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry,
Selected Years and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Selected Years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
1965
3 per
cent
unem
ploy
ment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Total..
1,2
Agriculture..... ...... .............................
8.81
7.40
6.99
6.59
6.18
4.93
5.00
5.00
5.00
3
Forestry and fishery products......................
.17
.16
.16
.16
.16
.14
.14
.14
.14
4
Agricultural.forestry and fishery services........
.32
.30
.31
.31
.31
.29
.30
.30
.30
5
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...... .
.06
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
6
Nonferrous metal ores m ining.................. .
.09
.08
.08
.07
.07
.06
.06
.06
.06
7
Coal mining................................. ........
.34
.23
.22
.22
.20
.16
.16
.16
.16
8
Crude petroleum and natural gas...........
.53
.45
.44
.43
.41
.32
.32
.32
.32
9,10
Nonmetallic mining and quarrying..................
.18
.18
.17
.17
.17
.18
.18
.18
.18
11,12 Construction............................... ........
5.31
5.26
5.27
5.31
5.37
5.58
5.61
5.76
5.42
13
Ordnance and accessories.... ......................
14
Food and kindred products..........................
.22
.38
.38
.34
.32
.28
2.74
2.57
2.54
2.47
2.40
2.09
.29
.29
.29
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.........
.19
.21
.21
.21
.22
.10
.68
.12
1.86
.22
.22
2.10
.10
.68
.12
1.86
.22
20,21 Lumber and wood products.... ......... .......... .
22 Household furniture....................... .........
1.07
.98
.97
.96
.94
.81
.81
.83
.79
.41
.41
.42
.43
.44
.45
.45
.49
.45
23
Other furniture and fixtures.......................
.16
.17
.17
.17
.17
.19
.19
.20
.19
.60
15
Tobacco manufactures............. ..................
.14
.13
.13
.12
.11
16
Broad and narrow f a b r i c s , y a m and thread mills....
.92
.83
.80
.79
.78
17
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...
18
Apparel.... ........................................
19
.16
.15
.15
.15
.15
1.94
1.94
1.94
1.92
1.95
2.11
.10
.68
.12
1.86
.22
2.09
.10
.69
.13
1.85
24
Paper and allied products,except containers.......
.60
.61
.61
.60
.59
.60
.60
.61
25
Paperboard containers and boxes....................
.25
.27
.27
.27
.27
.28
.28
.28
.28
26
Printing and publishing............................
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.42
1.48
1.49
1.49
1.49
27
Chemicals and selected chemical products.........
.61
.59
.58
.57
.57
.52
.52
.52
.52
28
Plastics and synthetic materials..................
.22
.24
.25
.25
.27
.27
.27
.28
.27
29
Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations............
.29
.30
.31
.31
.30
.29
.29
.29
.29
30
Paints and allied products................ ........
.09
.09
.09
.09
.09
.08
.08
.08
.07
31
Petroleum refining and related industries.........
.34
.28
.27
.25
.24
.20
.20
.20
.20
32
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........
.52
.59
.59
.60
.63
.61
.61
.63
.61
33
Leather tanning and industrial leather products...
.06
.05
.05
.05
.05
.04
.04
.04
.04
34
Footwear and other leather products.......... .
.48
.47
.45
.44
.43
.40
.40
.40
.40
35
Glass and glass products................. .........
.22
.23
.23
.23
.23
.22
.22
.23
.22
36
Stone and clay products................ ..........
37
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.... .
.65
1.28
.64
1.20
.64
.64
.63
.59
.60
.61
1.19
1.25
1.26
1.13
1.14
1.18
.58
1.12
38
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing...........
.46
.47
.47
.46
.49
.47
.47
.49
.46
39
Metal containers..... ..............................
.11
.10
.10
.10
.10
.09
.09
.09
.09
40
Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products....
.65
.59
.60
.62
.63
.63
.63
.65
.62
41
Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts........
.38
.40
.41
.40
.43
.43
.43
.45
.42
42
Other fabricated metal products...................
.52
.54
.54
.55
.57
.57
.58
.60
.57
43
Engines and turbines...............................
.14
.12
.12
.12
.12
.11
.11
.11
.11
44
Farm machinery and equipment.......................
.17
.16
.17
.18
.19
.18
.18
.19
.17
45
Construction,mining,and oil field machinery.......
.22
.21
.21
.23
.23
.25
.25
.26
.24
See footnotes at end of table.
125
Table VI-4.
Civilian Employment,— by ISP Industry— Continued
Selected Years and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Selected years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
1965
3 percent
unemploymen t
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
46
Materials handling machinery and equipment........
.09
.09
.09
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
47
Metalworking machinery and equipment...............
.37
.39
.40
.41
.42
.43
.43
.44
.42
48
Special industry machinery and equipment..........
.25
.25
.25
.25
.26
.27
.27
.28
.26
49
General industrial machinery and equipment........
.32
.34
.34
.34
.36
.34
.34
.36
.33
50
Machine-shop products..............................
.24
.27
.27
.27
.28
.28
.28
.29
.28
.28
51
Office,computing,and accounting machines..........
.20
.23
.23
.24
.27
.29
.29
.32
52
Service industry machines................... ......
.14
.14
.14
.15
.15
.13
.13
.14
.13
53
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......
.46
.50
.48
.47
.49
.48
.48
.50
.46
54
Household appliances...............................
.22
.22
.22
.22
.24
.22
.19
.22
.22
.22
Electric lighting and wiring equipment............
.21
.21
.23
55
.23
.23
.23
.24
.23
56
Radio,television,and communication equipment.....
.60
.79
.78
.74
.77
.64
.64
.67
.63
57
Electronic components and accessories.............
.27
.38
.37
.37
.41
.39
.39
.41
.39
58
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment..
.15
.15
.14
.13
.14
.14
.14
.14
.14
59
Motor vehicles and equipment............ ..........
.91
.99
1.05
1.05
1.15
.95
.95
1.01
.93
60
Aircraft and parts.................................
1.18
.91
.90
.84
.83
.67
.68
.67
.67
61
Other transportation equipment....................
.33
.31
.33
.34
.37
.39
.39
.41
.38
62
Scientific and controlling instruments............
.34
.36
.36
.35
.35
.34
.34
.35
.34
.17
63
Optical,ophthalmic,and photographic equipment....
.16
.16
.16
.16
.17
.17
.17
.17
64
Miscellaneous manufacturing........................
.60
.60
.59
.59
.61
.59
.59
.61
.59
65
Transportation and warehousing.....................
4.07
3.79
3.75
3.70
3.67
3.38
3.39
3.41
3.38
66
Communications;except broadcasting................
1.17
1.04
1.03
1.03
1.04
.90
.90
.88
.90
67
Radio and television broadcasting.................
.13
.14
.14
.15
.15
.15
.15
.15
.15
68
Electric,gas,water,and sanitary services..........
.94
.89
69
Wholesale and retail trade.........................
20.49
20.34
.88
20.21
.87
.85
.79
.80
.78
.81
20.33
20.37
20.19
20.26
20.56
20.06
70
Finance and insurance........... ...................
3.22
3.44
3.49
3.52
3.52
3.66
3.67
3.51
3.67
71
Real estate and rental............. .
1.02
1.01
1.03
1.04
1.03
1.04
1.03
.98
1.04
72
Hotels;personal and repair services.except auto...
3.77
3.83
3.84
3.88
3.86
3.82
3.80
3.62
3.81
73 74 Business services and research and development....
2.30
2.92
2.96
2.97
3.36
3.37
3.37
3.36
75
Automobile repair and services.....................
.60
2.86
.68
.64
.65
.64
.65
.65
.62
76
Amusements.................. ................... .
.96
.98
1.01
1.07
1.08
1.02
1.08
5.26
5.77
1.02
6.11
6.15
7.09
7.09
6.62
7.55
15.21
77
Medical,educational and nonprofit organizations...
78
Government enterprises, Federal...................
79
Government enterprises, State and local...........
84
Government, total..... .............................
86
.99
6.00
See NOTE.
See NOTE.
12.68
13.04
13.25
13.54
15.31
15.02
14.99
Federal...........................................
3.30
3.34
3.33
3.25
3.21
3.05
3.08
3.06
3.08
State and local...................................
8.51
9.34
9.71
10.03
10.33
12.27
11.95
11.93
12.13
3.84
3.84
3.76
3.72
3.51
3.62
3.61
3.61
3.61
Private households.................................
11.82
J
1 Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and unpaid
are included in ISP 84.
family workers.
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not
NOTE:
.65
ISP“interindustry sales and purchases.
ISP 78 and 79
equal 100.
126
T a b l e V I-5.
Civilian Employment,—
by
ISP Industry,
P r ojected 1965-70
2/
(Average annual rate of change)—
Projected 1965-70
Industry number and title
3 percent
unemploy
ment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
durables
High
services
Basic model
1,2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9,10
11,12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20,21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.9
Agriculture....... ................................
Forestry and fishery products.....................
Agricultural,forestry and fishery services.......
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining...................
Nonferrous metal ores mining......................
Coal mining........................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas...................
Nonmetallic mining and quarrying..................
Construction................. .....................
Ordnance and accessories..........................
Food and kindred products.........................
Tobacco manufactures..............................
Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills....
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...
Apparel........ ...................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........
Lumber and wood products..........................
Household furniture...............................
Other furniture and fixtures......................
Paper and allied products,except containers......
Paperboard containers and boxes.................. .
Printing and publishing...........................
Chemicals and selected chemical products........ .
Plastics and synthetic materials..................
Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations.......... .
Paints and allied products.................. ......
Petroleum refining and related industries.... .
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.......
Leather tanning and industrial leather products...
Footwear and other leather products............ .
Glass and glass products..........................
Stone and clay products....... ...................
Primary iron and steel manufacturing......... .
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..........
Metal containers..................................
Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products....
Stampings,screw machine products,and bolts.......
Other fabricated metal products...................
-2.3
0.7
1.2
—
-1.1
-2.3
-2.8
3.3
3.0
-0.1
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-1.9
1.3
2.0
-0.9
2.8
4.6
2.7
2.5
3.1
0.3
2.4
1.6
—
-1.3
1.6
-1.2
0.7
1.5
1.0
0.1
1.4
0.8
2.2
2.1
2.3
Farm machinery and equipment..................... .
Construction,mining,and oil field machinery......
Materials handling machinery and equipment.......
1.6
3.4
0.8
-2.3
0.5
1.1
—
-1.1
-2.7
-2.9
3.0
2.8
-0.1
-0.6
-1.0
-0.7
-2.2
1.0
1.7
-1.1
2.6
4.3
2.4
2.3
2.9
0.1
2.1
1.2
-0.3
-1.7
1.4
-1.8
0.3
1.2
0.8
-0.1
1.2
0.5
2.1
1.9
2.1
-0.2
1.3
3.2
0.5
-2.3
0.7
1.1
0.7
-0.7
-2.7
-2.9
3.3
3.3
—
-0.8
-1.2
-0.6
-1.3
0.9
1.9
-0.7
4.2
5.5
2.5
2.5
2.9
0.2
2.6
1.1
—
-1.7
2.0
-1.2
0.3
1.7
1.2
0.6
1.9
0.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
0.7
2.2
4.0
1.5
-2.3
0.2
1.1
-0.7
-1.5
-2.7
-2.9
2.9
2.1
-0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-0.7
-2.2
1.0
1.8
-1.6
2.5
3.7
2.4
2.3
2.9
—
1.9
1.5
-2.0
-1.5
1.2
-1.8
0.3
1.2
0.4
-0.6
0.9
0.5
1.5
1.6
1.8
-0.4
0.4
2.4
0.3
• ••
See footnotes at end of table.
127
T a b l e V I-5.
Civilian Employment,— ^ by
ISP Industry,
Projected 1965-70--Continued
2/
(Average annual rate of change)—
Projected 1965-70
Industry number and title
3 percent
unemploy
ment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
durables
High
services
Basic model
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73, 74
75
76
77
78
79
84
86
Metalworking machinery and equipment...............
Special industry machinery and equipment.... ......
General industrial machinery and equipment........
Machine-shop products........................ .
Office,computing,and accounting machines..........
Service industry machines..........................
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......
Household appliances...............................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment............
Radio,television,and communication equipment......
Electronic components and accessories.............
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment...
Motor vehicles and equipment..... ....... ..........
Aircraft and parts............. ............ .......
Other transportation equipment.....................
Scientific and controlling instruments............
Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment.....
Miscellaneous manufacturing.......... ........... .
Transportation and warehousing.....................
Communications;except broadcasting............... .
Radio and television broadcasting................ .
Electric,gas,water,and sanitary services..........
Wholesale and retail trade....... .................
Finance and insurance.......... ................. .
Real estate and rental.......................... .
Hotels;personal and repair services.except auto....
Business services and research and development....
Automobile repair and services...... .
Amusements.......... ............... ............ .
Medical,educational and nonprofit organizations....
Government enterprises - Federal...................
Government enterprises - State and local..........
Government - general...............................
Private households.......... ......... .......... .
1/ Covers wage and salary employees, self-employed and
unpaid family workers.
2.3
2.7
1.4
2.6
3.9
-0.2
1.5
1.7
2.7
-1.4
1.3
2.3
-1.6
-2.2
3.4
1.4
2.0
1.6
0.6
-0.9
2.3
0.7
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
4.8
2.4
3.4
5.2
1.4
3.5
5.1
2.9
2.1
2.4
1.2
2.4
3.5
-0.4
1.4
1.4
2.4
-1.7
1.2
2.1
-1.8
-2.2
3.2
1.2
1.7
1.3
0.4
-1.1
1.9
0.5
1.8
2.8
2.0
1.6
4.6
2.1
3.1
4.9
1.2
3.2
4.3
2.5
2.9
3.4
2.0
3.0
5.9
0.7
2.3
2.8
3.1
-0.7
1.8
3.0
-0.6
-2.4
4.2
1.7
2.3
1.9
0.4
-1.6
1.9
0.2
2.1
1.9
1.0
0.6
4.6
1.3
2.0
3.4
0.9
2.7
4.3
2.5
1.6
1.6
0.5
2.3
3.2
-1.1
0.7
1.4
2.0
-1.9
0.9
2.1
-2.2
-2.4
2.6
1.0
1.7
1.2
0.3
-1.1
1.9
0.7
1.6
2.8
2.1
1.6
4.5
2.1
3.2
6.2
1.2
3.3
4.6
2.5
2J Compound interest rates based on
terminal years.
BIBLIOGRAPHY OF REPORTS USED IN ECONOMIC GROWTH STUDIES
A.
Labor Force Projections
Cooper, Sophia and Johnston, Denis F., "Labor Force Projections for 1970-80"
(Special Labor Force Report No. 26) Monthly Labor Review, February 1965,
pp. 129-140.
B.
Projections of Final Demand
1.
Federal Government
Colm, Gerhard and Wagner, Peter, Federal Budget Projections, Studies of
Government Finance, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., 1965.
2.
State and Local Government
Financing Public Hospitals and Health Services: 1970 Projections,
Council of State Governments, Research Memorandum.
Public Spending for Higher Education, 1970, Council of State Governments,
Research Memorandum 374, February 1965.
Transportation Outlays of States and Cities: 1970 Projections, Council
of State Governments, Research Memorandum 375, May 1965
Financing Public Welfare: 1970 Projections, Council of State Governments,
Research Memorandum 380, July 1965.
Local School Expenditures: 1970 Projections, Council of State Governments,
Research Memorandum 382, November 1965.
Mushkin, Selma J., and Lupo, Gabrielle C., "Project *70: Projecting the
State-Local Sector," The George Washington University, State-Local
Finances Project, Washington, D.C., March 1966.
3.
Residential Construction
Atkinson, L. Jay, "Long-Term Influences Affecting the Volume of New
Housing Units," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 43, No. 11, Office of
Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 1963, pp. 8-19.
4.
Plant and Equipment Investment
Projections of Business Investment Levels to 1970, Jack Faucett
Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland, August 1965 (unpublished).
128
129
Bibliography--Continued
5.
Net Exports
Parrish, Evelyn M. , "A Pattern of Balances of Payments between World
Regions in 1970," Staff Working Paper in Economics and Statistics,
No. 9, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce,
September 1964.
6.
Consumption Expenditures
Friedman, Charles S., "Stocks of Passenger Cars: Postwar Growth and
Distribution," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 43, No. 9, Office of
Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, September 1963,
pp. 17-24.
Houthakker, Hendrik and Taylor, Lester D., Consumer Demand in the
United States, 1929-1970, Vol. 126, Harvard University Press, 1966.
Simon, Nancy W . , "Personal Consumption Expenditures in the 1958
Input-Output Study," Survey of Current Business. Vol. 45, No. 10,
Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce,
October 1965, pp. 7-20.
C.
Interindustry Relationships
1.
Agriculture
"Agriculture 1970: Its Markets and Selected Characteristics of Its
Structure," Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,
June 1963 (unpublished).
2.
Bureau of Mines
"Methodology Used to Estimate 1970 Inputs and Outputs of Six Interindustry
Sales and Purchases (ISP) Mining and Two Refining Sectors," Bureau of
Mines, U.S, Department of Interior, January 1964 (unpublished).
(Industries covered were: 5, Iron and steel; 6, Nonferrous metals: mining;
7, Coal mining; 8, Petroleum and related products: mining; 9, Stone and
clay and their products: mining; 10, Chemicals: mining; 31, Petroleum
and related products: manufacturing; and 38, Nonferrous metals:
manufacturing.)
3.
Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University, Cambridge,
Massachusetts (unpublished)
(a)
Projections of 1958 Input-Output Coefficients to 1970
(b)
Projections of Input Structure for the Textile Industry,
(ISP 16, 17, 18, 19)
130
Bibliography--Continued
(c)
Projections of Input Structure for the Paper and Allied Products
Industry, Except Containers (ISP 24); Paperboard (ISP 25)
(d)
Projections of Input Structure for the Petroleum Refining
Industry (ISP 31)
(e)
Projections
(f)
Projections of Input Structure for the Iron and Steel
Manufacturing Industry (ISP 37)
(g)
Input Structure for Metal Containers (ISP 39)
(h)
Projections of Input Structure for Heating, Plumbing, Fabricated
Structural Metal Products (ISP 40)
(i)
Projections of Input Structure for Screw Machine Products and
Other Fabricated Metal Products (ISP 41 and 42)
(j)
Projections
of Input Structure for Engines and Turbines (ISP 43)
(k)
Projections
(ISP 44)
of Input Structure for Farm Machinery and Equipment
(l)
Projections of Input Structure for Construction and Mining
Machinery and Equipment (ISP 45)
(m)
Projections
of Input Structure for Household Appliances (ISP 54)
(n)
Projections
of Input Structure for Motor Vehicles (ISP 59)
(o)
Projections
(ISP 61)
of Input Structure for Other Transportation Equipment
(p)
Input Structure for Transportation and Warehousing (ISP 65)
(q)
Projections
(r)
Projections of Input Structure for the Gas Utility Industry
(Part ISP 68)
(s)
Coefficient Projections in the Metalworking Sectors: General
Considerations
of Input Structure for the Glass Industry (ISP 35)
of Input Structure for Electricity (Part ISP 68)
131
Bibliography--Continued
4.
Construction
Frumkin, Norman, "Construction Activity in the 1958 Input-Output
Study," Survey of Current Business, Vol. 45, No* 5, Office of
Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, May 1965, pp. 13-24.
Projections to 1970 of Input Coefficients for Selected Construction
Activities, Jack Faucett Associates, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland,
July 1964 (unpublished).
132
Table A-l.
Gross National Product, by Major Components, 1950-65
(Billions of 1958 dollars)
Selected years
Major components
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Gross national product.............................
355.3
383.4
395.1
412.8
407.0
438.0
446.1
452.5
Personal consumption expenditures...............
230.5
232.8
239.4
250.8
255.7
274.2
281.4
288.2
Gross private domestic investment...............
69.3
70.0
60.5
61.2
59.4
75.4
74.3
Fixed investment...............................
61.0
59.0
57.2
60.2
61.4
69.0
69.5
67.6
Nonresidential...............................
37.5
39.6
38.3
40.7
39.6
43.9
47.3
47.4
Structures.................................
12.7
14.1
13.7
14.9
15.2
16.2
18.5
18.2
29.1
20.2
1.2
6.2
Producers' durable equipment.... .........
24.8
25.5
24.6
25.8
24.5
27.7
28.8
Residential structures.......................
23.5
19.5
18.9
19.6
21.7
25.1
22.2
68.8
Change in business inventories................
8.3
10.9
3.3
0.9
-2.0
6.4
4.8
Net exports of goods and services...............
2.7
5.3
3.0
1.1
3.0
3.2
5.0
Exports............. ............................
16.3
19.3
18.2
17.8
18.8
20.9
24.2
26.2
Imports.........................................
13.6
14.1
15.2
16.7
15.8
17.7
19.1
19.9
Government purchases of goods and services.....
52.8
75.4
92.1
99.8
88.9
85.2
85.3
89.3
Federal.........................................
25.3
47.4
63.8
70.0
56.8
50.7
49.7
51.7
State and local................................
27.5
27.9
28.4
29.7
32.1
34.4
35.6
37.6
Percent distribution
Gross national product.............. ...............
Personal consumption expenditures...............
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
64.9
60.7
60.6
60.8
62.8
62.6
63.1
63.7
16.7
15.2
Gross private domestic investment...............
19.5
18.3
15.3
14.8
14.6
17.2
Fixed investment...............................
17.2
15.4
14.5
14.6
15.1
15.8
15.6
14.9
Nonresidential............ ...................
10.6
10.3
9.7
9.9
9.7
10.0
10.6
10.5
Structures...... ............ .......... .
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.7
4.1
4.0
Producers' durable equipment..............
7.0
6.7
6.2
6.3
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.4
6.6
5.1
4.8
4.7
5.3
5.7
5.0
4.5
1.1
1.1
0.3
Residential structures.......................
Change in business inventories................
Net exports of goods and services...............
Exports......... ................................
2.3
2.8
-0.5
1.5
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.7
4.6
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.4
5.8
4.3
4.4
1.4
Imports.........................................
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
4.0
Government purchases of goods and services.....
14.8
19.7
23.3
24.2
21.8
19.5
19.1
19.7
Federal.........................................
7.1
12.4
16.2
17.0
14.0
11.6
7.7
7.2
7.2
7.9
11.1
8.0
11.4
7.3
State and local.... ............................
See footnotes at end of table
7.9
8.3
133
Table A-l.
Gross National Product, by Major Components, 1950-65--Continued
(Billions of 1958 dollars)
Selectee years
Major components
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Gross national product.............................
447.3
475.9
487.8
497.3
530.0
550.0
577.6
609.0
Personal consumption expenditures...............
290.1
307.3
316.2
322.6
338.6
352.4
372.1
394.1
Gross private domestic investment...............
60.9
73.6
72.4
69.0
79.4
82.3
86.3
96.1
Fixed investment...............................
62.4
68.8
68.9
67.0
73.4
76.6
81.7
88.9
Nonresidential...............................
41.6
44.1
47.1
45.5
49.7
51.9
57.1
65.0
19651'
Structures.................................
16.6
16.2
17.4
17.4
17.9
18.0
18.9
21.2
Producers' durable equipment..............
25.0
27.9
29.6
28.1
31.7
33.8
38.3
43.8
20.8
24.7
21.9
23.8
24.7
24.6
23.9
Residential structures.......................
Change in business inventories................
Net exports of goods and services...............
-1.5
2.2
4.8
3.5
21.6
2.0
6.0
5.7
4.6
7.2
0.3
4.3
5.1
4.5
5.6
8.5
6.0
Exports.........................................
23.1
23.8
27.3
28.0
30.0
32.2
36.5
37.3
Imports............... .........................
20.9
23.5
23.0
22.9
25.5
26.5
27.9
31.3
Government purchases of goods and services.....
94.2
94.7
94.9
100.5
107.5
109.8
110.7
112.8
Federal.............. ........... ...............
53.6
52.5
51.4
54.6
60.0
59.7
57.8
57.2
State and local................................
40.6
42.2
43.5
45.9
47.5
50.0
52.8
55.6
Percent distribution
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Personal consumption expenditures...............
64.9
64.6
64.8
64.9
63.9
64.1
64.4
64.7
Gross private domestic investment...............
13.6
15.5
14.8
13.9
15.0
15.0
14.9
15.8
Fixed investment...............................
14.0
14.5
14.1
13.5
13.8
13.9
14.1
14.6
Gross national product.......................... .
Nonresidential...............................
9.3
9.3
9.7
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.9
10.7
Structures..................................
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
Producers' durable equipment..............
5.6
5.9
6.1
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.6
7.2
Residential structures.......................
4.7
5.2
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.3
3.9
Change in business inventories....... ........
-0.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
0.8
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.5
1.0
5.2
5.0
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.9
6.3
6.1
Net exports of goods and services...........
Exports.........................................
Imports...... ..................................
4.7
Federal............................. ...........
21.1
12.0
State and local................................
9.1
Government purchases of goods and services.....
J Preliminary
1
estimate.
NOTE:
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
4.9
4.7
19.9
19.5
11.0
10.5
20.2
11.0
4.6
8.9
8.9
9.2
4.8
4.8
5.1
20.3
20.0
19.2
18.5
11.3
10.9
10.0
9.4
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.1
4.8
SOURCE: Historical data on gross national product are from
U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
131*
Table A-2.
Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, 1950-65
(Billions of 1958 dollars)
Selected years
Major type
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Total, personal consumption expenditures..........
230.5
232.8
239.4
250.8
255.7
274.2
281.4
288.2
Durable goods....................................
34.7
31.5
30.8
35.3
35.4
43.2
41.0
41.5
Automobiles and parts........................
15.9
13.3
12.3
16.0
15.7
21.2
17.9
18.8
Furniture and household equipment...........
15.1
14.3
14.4
15.0
15.3
17.1
17.9
17.4
Other.........................................
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.3
Nondurable goods................................
114.0
116.5
124.4
125.5
131.7
136.2
138.7
Food and beverages...........................
63.2
64.5
66.3
68.4
69.4
72.4
74.8
76.2
Clothing and shoes...........................
21.8
21.6
22.7
22.9
24.6
24.4
6.5
7.2
7.8
8.5
22.8
8.8
24.0
Gasoline and o i l .............................
10.1
10.5
Other.........................................
22.5
23.3
24.0
24.6
24.6
25.8
26.8
27.5
Services.........................................
81.8
84.8
87.8
91.1
94.8
99.3
104.1
108.0
Housing.......................................
26.8
28.8
30.7
32.3
33.9
35.7
37.4
39.2
Household operation..........................
11.7
12.4
12.7
13.2
13.7
15.1
16.1
16.7
Transportation................................
8.5
Other.........................................
34.8
8.8
34.9
120.8
9.6
8.7
8.9
8.7
8.9
9.4
9.5
35.8
36.6
38.5
39.7
41.2
42.5
Percent distribution
100.0
100.0
Durable goods....................................
15.1
13.5
Automobiles and parts........................
6.9
5.7
5.1
6.4
6.6
1.6
6.1
6.0
6.0
Total, personal consumption expenditures..........
Furniture and household equipment...........
100.0
12.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.1
13.8
15.8
14.6
14.4
7.8
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.0
6.1
6.0
6.2
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
Nondurable goods................................
49.4
50.0
50.5
49.6
49.1
48.0
48.4
48.1
Food and beverages...........................
27.3
27.6
27.7
27.3
27.2
26.3
26.6
26.4
Clothing and shoes...........................
9.5
9.3
9.5
9.1
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.5
Gasoline and o i l .............................
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
Other.........................................
9.8
10.0
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.6
Services.........................................
35.5
36.5
36.7
36.3
37.1
36.2
37.0
37.5
12.4
12.8
Other.........................................
1.9
Housing.......................................
11.6
12.9
13.3
13.0
13.3
13.6
Household operation..........................
5.1
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.8
Transportation...............................
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
Other.........................................
15.1
15.0
15.0
14.6
15.0
14.5
14.7
14.8
See footnotes at end of table
135
Table A-2.
Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, 1950-65— -Continued
(Billions of 1958 dollars)
Selected years
Major type
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Total, personal consumption expenditures..........
290.1
307.3
316.2
322.6
338.6
352.4
372.1
Durable goods....................................
37.9
43.7
44.9
43.9
49.2
53.2
58.5
65.4
Automobiles and parts........................
15.4
19.0
20.0
18.4
21.8
24.1
25.6
30.1
Furniture and household equipment...........
17.1
18.8
18.7
19.2
20.5
22.0
24.9
26.5
6.2
6.8
8.0
1965^
394.1
8.8
Other................... .....................
5.4
5.9
Nondurable goods................................
140.2
146.9
149.7
153.1
158.4
161.8
169.4
177.0
6.4
7.1
Food and beverages..... .....................
76.4
79.7
80.9
82.3
84.1
85.3
88.3
91.7
Clothing and shoes...........................
24.7
26.1
26.6
26.9
28.4
29.0
31.4
32.8
Gasoline and o i l .............................
11.0
11.5
11.8
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.7
13.9
Other.........................................
Services............. ............................
28.2
29.6
31.9
33.4
34.4
36.1
38.6
112.0
116.8
121.6
30.4
125.6
131.1
137.3
144.2
151.6
Housing...... ................................
41.1
42.9
44.9
46.6
49.1
51.9
55.0
59.2
Household operation..........................
17.3
18.0
18.8
19.4
20.4
21.2
22.3
23.3
Transportation...............................
9.3
9.7
9.7
9.9
10.3
10.4
10.6
Other.........................................
44.3
46.1
49.8
51.7
54.0
56.5
58.4
10.1
47.9
Percent distribution
Total, personal consumption expenditures..........
Durable goods.............................. .
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
13.1
14.2
14.2
15.1
15.7
16.6
6.9
7.6
13.6
14.5
6.3
5.7
6.4
6.8
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.9
6.0
6.7
6.7
1.9
2.0
1.9
6.1
2.0
6.3
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
48.3
47.8
Automobile and parts.........................
5.3
Furniture and household equipment...........
Other......................... ................
Nondurable goods................................
Food and beverages.......................... .
26.3
Clothing and shoes.... ......................
8.5
47.3
47.5
46.8
45.9
45.5
44.9
25.9
25.6
25.6
24.8
24.2
23.7
23.3
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.4
8.2
8.4
8.3
Gasoline and o i l .............................
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.5
Other.........................................
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.7
9.8
Services............ .......... ..................
38.6
38.0
38.5
38.9
38.7
39.0
38.8
38.5
Housing................ ......................
14.2
14.0
14.2
14.4
14.5
14.7
14.8
15.0
Household operation..........................
6.0
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.0
Transportation...............................
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
Other.........................................
15.2
15.0
15.2
15.5
15.3
15.4
1/ Preliminary estimate.
NOTE:
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may
not equal totals.
6.0
2.8
15.2
5.9
2.7
14.8
SOURCE: Historical data on personal consumption expendi
tures are from U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics,
TABLE A-3.
1/
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)" PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970-'
3/1958 prices)
(Producer*' valu*,—
Industry number and title
Livestock
and
livestock
products
Other
agricul
tural
products
Forestry
and
fishery
products
Agricul
tural,
forestry,
and
fishery
services
Iron and
ferro
alloy
ores
mining
1
2
3
4
5
Nonfer
rous
metal
ores
mining
Coal
mining
6
7
Crude
petro
leum and
natural
8**
Stone
and clay
mining
and
quarrying
8
9
10
ChesdLcal
and fer
tilizer
mineral
mining
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Livestock end livestock products....................
Other agricultural products.........................
Forestry and fishery products.......................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.........
Iron end ferroalloy ores mining.....................
68 ,7 2 4
26,516
67
4,604
9
6,059
79,835
39
5, 161
13
4,305
9,771
57,475
2,086
6
1 1,209
30,841
28
1 22,144
8
173
266
57
35
1 3,218
142
195
27
29
222
130
19C
60
31
30
256
408
18
44
8
138
181
22
29
44
152
179
23
27
40
6.
7.
d.
9.
10.
Nonferrous metal ores mining........................
Coal mining..........................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas.....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining..............
15
60
HI
75
01
25
65
163
179
79
10
34
72
35
15
14
39
77
33
875
280
86
48
22
29,064
223
92
76
49
45
42,1 2 0
78
62
13
14
43
6,381
21
8
41
201
1C9
44,726
26
46
157
103
753
21,582
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
New construction....................................
Maintenance and repair construction.................
Ordnance and accessories............................
Food and kindred products...........................
Tobacco manufactures............... .................
i,269
549
852
3,748
2
1,467
1
430
2
652
1
775
1
396
1
109
2
7 50
1
116
3
565
1
100
1,195
1
106
2
665
1
112
3
677
1
143
3
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.....
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
Apparel..............................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
Lumber and wood products, except containers.........
79
47
26
77
164
114
69
22
106
247
133
222
19
32
164
144
236
17
52
144
51
23
23
19
491
120
18
23
19
195
92
36
25
15
541
32
2C
18
13
131
70
42
26
18
165
58
23
20
19
149
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Wooden containers....................................
Household furniture.................................
Other furniture and fixtures........................
Paper and allied products, except containers........
Paperboard containers and boxes..................... ■
125
5
3
251
2 03
31.6
6
4
233
98
45
10
6
489
291
129
5
3
246
220
11
9
4
141
54
9
5
3
3 76
60
8
8
5
268
86
6
5
3
165
41
13
5
3.
516
162
9
4
3
326
93
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing.............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products............
Plastics and synthetic materials....................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............
Paints and allied products..........................
597
704
85
69
26
835
1,775
141
47
22
1 ,288
337
121
21
39
476
744
107
30
18
395
661
96
25
27
452
861
99
32
.25
287
274
136
20
26
774
225
53
16
30
488
410
171
34
21
403
910
104
31
21
1b
2
239-877 0-66— 10
Petroleum refining and related Industries.......... ..
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products......... ..
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.... .
Footwear and other leather products................ .
Glass and glass products........................... .
1 37
2 54
3
18
129
288
377
3
27
47
123
3 81
3
12
41
134
248
2
14
42
126
356
3
9
35
115
245
2
9
29
107
662
2
36. Stone and clay products............................ ..
37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing............... .
38. - Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............ .
39. Metal containers................................... .
40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products....
95
229
93
131
53
152
245
121
56
62
57
168
69
31
49
7b
179
78
42
38
352
1,260
201
i5
128
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts........ .
Other fabricated metal products....................
Engines and turbines...............................
Farm machinery and equipment........................ .
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.......
126
1 34
’4
137
17
75
200
24
370
30
47
114
29
68
14
57
342
12
147
15
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment.........
Metalworking machinery and equipment...............
Special Industry machinery and equipment...........
General Industrial machinery and equipment......... .
Machine shop products..............................
6
39
75
36
60
9
48
51
59
70
6
32
19
35
37
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines.......... .
Service Industry machines.......................... .
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus........ .
Household appliances..... .........................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
29
7
34
7
23
44
9
46
9
28
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and consunlcation equipment...... .
Electronic components and accessories.............. .
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment....
Motor vehicles and equipment.......................
Aircraft and parts.................................
28
22
46
78
13
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment..................... .
Scientific and controlling Instruments.............
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.....
Miscellaneous manufacturing........................
Transportation and warehousing.....................
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
12
37
61
185
2
5
27
159
755
3
12
39
120
369
2
11
31
615
2,329
525
17
88
223
1,007
393
13
1C3
83
229
115
1C
81
2,564
1,364
183
15
83
155
1 ,C34
231
18
69
121
204
68
46
1 ,686
133
242
54
37
1, 183
441
426
5b
46
1,650
81
271
62
20
158
125
245
56
46
1,564
123
187
49
32
1,017
5
35
26
32
40
184
114
31
196
114
30
142
37
2 32
126
221
2 32
28
294
132
8
52
51
331
51
5t>0
124
34
363
154
242
87
35
204
105
69
12
45
7
21
24
5
27
5
18
21
9
127
8
49
23
8
273
8
59
20
9
411
9
126
42
11
230
8
27
25
1C
328
8
50
21
7
285
7
31
32
27
58
73
11
30
24
17
29
11
23
17
28
40
8
104
57
40
128
31
34
36
30
67
17
35
39
29
103
14
33
136
2C
47
14
35
39
29
82
17
35
37
28
89
23
31
72
20
o7
2,539
31
20
28
80
1,723
6 Cl
14
40
159
1,52 8
20
14
16
67
1 ,442
177
33
17
67
6,737
48
48
19
61
2,898
267
34
15
143
1,286
29
26
26
67
1,598
51
41
20
105
1,581
75
36
18
77
4,741
Communications; except broadcasting................
Radio and television broadcasting..................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.........
Wholesale and retail trade.........................
Finance and Insurance........ .....................
314
85
254
5,397
1,703
326
135
348
4,431
1,832
2 95
22 9
143
2,383
2,181
341
73
197
2 ,582
1,239
223
53
715
2,574
1,264
226
59
1,185
3, 165
1,950
161
5C
836
3,672
1,476
165
133
3C2
1,754
1, 701
219
66
563
3,716
1,523
219
54
1,02 0
2,865
1,090
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental.............................
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto...
Business services..................................
Research and development...........................
Automobile repair and services.....................
397
272
2, 108
14
615
692
305
3,360
25
444
377
255
5,707
8
222
390
197
1 ,817
.12
273
659
435
1,316
15
356
324
479
1,457
20
220
306
349
1,247
12
195
1,524
406
3,284
6
308
319
486
1,629
14
227
198
500
1,353
17
272
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements.........................................
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
Federal Government enterprises.......... ..........
State and local government enterprises.............
Gross Imports of goods and services................
104
1,146
3 76
262
141
281
455
279
139
24 0
513
.150
81
352
332
177
96
221
414
575
90
2 70
509
718
76
273
462
496
162
222
393
311
53
2 54
454
622
93
232
438
669
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts...........
Office supplies............ ........................
TOTAL............................................ .
125,514
115,156
95,069
1 80,047
39, 9 7 3
53 , 5 7 4
63,771
25,316
70,737
44,716
See footnotes at end of table,
137
TABLE A-3.
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT) —^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND
,1970-/--Continued
(Producers1 value,—^ 1958 prices)
New
construction
Industry number and title
11
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Mainte
nance and
repair
construc
tion
12
Ordnance
and ac
cessories
Food and
kindred
products
13
14
Tobacco
manu
factures
15
Broad
and
narrow
fabrics,
yarn and
thread
mills
16
Miscel
laneous
textile
goods
and floor
coverings
Apparel
Lumber
and wood
products,
except
con
tainers
20
19
18
17
Miscel
laneous
fabri
cated
textile
products
Livestock and livestock products................... ..
Other agricultural products................. .........
Forestry and fishery products...................... ..
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services........ .
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.................... .
272
847
522
1)2
88
141
235
189
48
43
262
287
34
43
50
20, 5 2 0
14,941
338
1,824
19
1,4 20
15,959
36
1 ,047
7
1*627
9 ,048
45
o4 2
16
1,422
2,641
44
242
12
719
3, 312
653
265
969
4,427
ac
335
13
906
4,009
7,173
617
11
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................
Coal mining.................................... .
Crude petroleum and natural gas....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining.............
..
.
..
..
.
123
170
118
859
25
9C
88
105
496
20
239
93
45
53
14
22
99
82
67
27
17
54
52
49
28
35
191
96
57
63
27
130
69
4
5e
22
92
51
30
40
28
128
65
45
50
25
75
92
54
23
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
New construction.....................................
Maintenance and repair construction................ ..
Ordnance and accessories........................... ..
Food and kindred products........... ..................
Tobacco manufactures............................... .
46,719
655
3
190
4
62,716
1
120
2
526
41,361
265
7
1,084
l
24,571
3
504
334
10,896
7 86
1
354
3
6 16
1
290
'
569
1
236
4
68C
1
2 92
4
774
1
249
4
Ill
50
55
94
4,975
56
26
30
20
1, 779
139
73
107
25
232
129
44
78
137
2 88
70
30
38
37
2 86
47,044
702
2 07
282
258
9,606
22,405
289
338
z
n
15,642
402
7 /» 6 C 6
826
2C3
21,953
2,213
8 74
47,556
358
119
73
147
42
69,231
45
3 36
226
656
209
23
17
60
36 5
138
65
71
16
336
27i
168
8
4
8fci
164
4
3
y48
6 13
50
12
5
764
614
24
156
6
955
498
24
11
7
5 64
557
32
197
157
1,165
750
193
169
32
671
343
1,336
569
237
5)
128
417
545
253
39
716
763
374
3C3
47
39
1,059
603
122
1 24
37
1 ,353
723
715
62
19
6 35
2 , 526
4 , 094
165
64
68C
1 97 8 8
2t 544
101
5S
768
1,189
1, 867
75
37
8 71
1,482
2,377
115
967
647
433
64
158
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.... .
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.... ..
Apparel............................................. .,
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.......... .
Lumber and wood products, except containers........
Wooden containers................................... .
Household furniture.................................
Other furniture and fixtures....................... .
Paper and allied products, except containers.......
Paperboard containers and boxes....................
Printing and publishing............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products...........
Plastics and synthetic materials...................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations...........
Paints and allied products.........................
Ibi
c
31.
32.
33.
3A.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industries...........
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.....
Footwear and other leather products.................
Glass and glass products............................
.
.
.
.
.
159
619
6
21
192
185
363
3
13
286
67
1,416
9
46
159
135
385
3
18
626
88
291
4
13
33
150
679
14
25
217
107
G91
15
65
131
78
466
129
131
97
105
1,944
37
328
163
152
630
4
26
132
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Stone and clay products................ ............
Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
Metal containers....................................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
.
.
.
.
.
3,764
2,995
1,080
27
3,8 93
1,629
1,416
eo7
55
2, G49
387
l ,580
2,2 79
21
167
116
591
162
716
56
63
147
114
63
25
118
25b
167
54
49
12 7
74
178
126
29
33
110
269
167
37
45
326
306
179
31
7C
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.........
Other fabricated metal products.....................
Engines and turbines................................
Farm machinery and equipment........................
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........
.
.
.
.
.
All
1, 1 68
48
48
?17
231
381
21
17
95
724
866
77
66
73
256
229
18
85
20
49
169
16
91
14
86
210
15
54
28
112
296
13
34
20
67
189
11
26
16
235
583
19
32
21
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment..........
Metalworking machinery and equipment................
Special Industry machinery and equipment............
General industrial machinery and equipment..........
Machine shop products...............................
.
.
.
.
.
2 30
208
68
AA5
2 36
36
100
38
148
116
18
921
1 18
53 l
8,276
7
79
31
50
84
4
37
32
30
37
11
83
44 3
76
63
S
67
165
51
57
6
47
163
4C
44
9
80
230
82
81
34
73
117
129
113
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines........... .
Service Industry machines......... ................. .
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.........
Household appliances............................... . .
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
75
141
578
145
83 3
23
56
313
131
407
84
126
1,255
37
73 2
46
10
51
11
51
64
10
28
5
23
39
10
71
9
48
32
7
53
35
6
46
10
29
40
10
67
12
46
32
9
60
10
108
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and communication equipment....... .
Electronic components and accessories........... .
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment....
Motor vehicles and equipment........................
Aircraft and parts..................................
117
195
12
86
33
118
73
44
45
17
1 t 6l C
7.71
91
l 35
1,529
37
31
40
74
22
27
22
20
29
10
43
36
24
40
19
A2
25
3e
33
16
28
13
50
47
22
43
29
39
34
39
81
24
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment......................
Scientific and controlling instruments.............. .
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment...... .
Miscellaneous manufacturing......................... .
Transportation and warehousing......................
10A
305
48
238
3, 829
51
111
18
204
2, 06C
235
1 ,223
74
254
2,229
49
27
31
120
4 ,116
23
15
41
148
1,643
42
31
49
225
3,542
39
26
AO
512
A 23
36
35
34
1, 161
2,281
39
2C5
41
1 ,C39
3, C09
175
30
26
193
4,712
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Communications; except broadcasting................. .
Radio and television broadcasting...................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services..........
Wholesale and retail trade............... .......... .
Finance and Insurance............................... .
A ’0
216
468
8,6'.8
1,806
204
55
264
6,614
880
4G7
84
338
4,151
1 ,307
379
142
379
5,738
1 ,667
227
210
189
2,590
905
336
108
596
5,532
1,745
327
85
A33
799
352
95
354
5,274
1,595
374
1C1
471
6,894
1,687
341
93
414
5 ,330
1,632
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental.............................. .
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
Business services................................... .
Research and development............................
Automobile repair and services......................
25 A
605
5,384
26
904
148
322
) ,371
19
368
1 75
963
2 , 099
27
22 5
319
522
3,531
23
901
22 2
347
5,2 38
19
257
275
809
2,691
106
405
231
273
1,027
2,364
47
288
303
971
2,518
60
455
263
808
2,315
16
1,258
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements....... ...................................
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
Federal Government enterprises......................
State and local government enterprises..............
Gross Imports of goods and services.................
? IQ
37 2
647
412
80
204
319
233
152
326
679
269
160
614
518
369
177
290
706
169
141
423
676
452
352
635
362
136
412
687
287
149
432
723
386
134
347
454
414
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts............
Office supplies.....................................
TOTAL............................................. •
102,694
9 1,527
85,894
>1,685
5 0,425
91,929
761
:4,788
111,699
109 ,905
2C5
136
AO
37
76
2ul
13
37
6
A1
36
31
2G
ess
&5A
116
71
357
ns
Sea footnotes at end of table
139
TABLEA-3.
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^--Continued
(Producers' v a l u e d 1958 prices)
Industry number end title
Wooden
con
tainers
21
House
hold
furniture
Other
furniture
and
fixtures
22
23
Paper
and
allied
prod
ucts
except
con
tainers
24
Paperboard
con
tainers
and
boxes
Printing
and pub
lishing
Chemicals
and
selected
chemical
products
Plastics
and
synthetic
materials
25
26
27
28
Drugs,
cleaning,
and
toilet
prepara
tions
29
Paints
and
allied
products
30
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Livestock end livestock products.....................
Other agricultural products..........................
Forestry and fishery products........................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining......................
497
1,804
2, 993
282
50
564
1,338
808
160
50
282
539
42 9
81
117
409
710
604
102
14
286
443
289
67
12
366
458
147
61
9
555
645
151
8C
98
384
432
53
57
42
805
717
72
53
28
676
636
81
86
55
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrous metal ores mining.........................
Coal mining...........................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas......................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
25
113
84
47
14
69
143
55
61
26
96
184
56
79
19
33
292
110
248
80
23
170
85
124
43
23
102
52
68
33
233
336
294
17C
695
97
293
179
96
274
49
133
ICO
93
56
89
193
150
129
212
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
New construction......................................
Maintenance and repair construction..................
Ordnance and accessories.............................
Food and kindred products............................
Tobacco sianufactures............. ....................
721
1
217
4
626
1
423
4
581
3
2C9
5
916
1
366
4
.892
2
258
4
905
4
338
8
747
1
507
7
935
1
358
4
583
2
843
5
722
1
74 3
6
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills......
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings......
Apparel...............................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
92
46
79
31
26 , 8 4 8
3,03S
506
1C2
112
7,697
494
524
135
84
4,057
531
136
104
170
5,706
293
90
125
91
2,696
169
86
41
55
1,297
156
52
73
174
482
187
73
ec
83
487
135
69
70
79
44 8
121
43
75
70
394
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Wooden containers.....................................
Household furniture...................................
Other furniture and fixtures.........................
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
Paperboard containers and boxes.................... .
77,571
406
78
489
2 72
51
66.47C
411
788
932
44
1,564
52,854
757
981
61
22
17
32,727
1,337
62
13
10
14,820
36,293
20
11
30
7 , 119
545
32
8
5
843
426
31
7
5
1,710
476
25
10
6
1,362
1,466
25
7
4
1,059
671
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing...............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
Paints and allied products...........................
853
366
228
52
100
851
715
762
55
475
73 3
502
383
45
355
1 ,494
1 ,404
691
55
47
1,398
841
539
73
34
65 , 1 8 9
807
210
46
25
586
23.C67
907
39 7
125
502
8,887
21,753
365
196
3,327
3,073
391
17,378
85
1,079
6,914
3,768
397
19,012
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industries........... .
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... •
Footwear and other leather products.................
Glass and glass products............................ •
134
432
4
n
89
89
2,157
51
61
782
81
762
57
32
1,865
162
1 ,391
5
32
76
130
1,199
6
39
152
74
458
5
31
47
487
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Stone and clay products............... ............. .
Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................ .
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
Metal containers....................................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
274
1,750
179
23
33
312
1,673
581
54
201
330
4,125
811
41
5 86
394
330
213
38
56
219
323
158
118
51
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts......... .
Other fabricated metal products..................... .
Engines and turbines................................
Farm machinery and equipment........................
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........ .
262
633
17
23
27
458
2,753
18
27
38
613
1,894
22
51
62
186
716
16
17
38
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment..........
Metalworking machinery and equipment................
Special Industry machinery and equipment............
General Industrial machinery and equipment..........
Machine shop products.............. ............... .
20
102
227
109
156
4C
221
197
12C
149
18
323
75
206
220
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines...........
Service industry machines...........................
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.........
Household appliances................................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
29
10
70
11
162
40
18
99
52
106
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and communication equipment.......
Electronic components and accessories...............
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment....
Motor vehicles and equipment...................... .
Aircraft and parts..................................
.
.
.
.
41
37
41
90
23
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment......................
Scientific and controlling Instruments..............
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
Miscellaneous manufacturing.........................
Transportation and warehousing......................
.
.
.
.
.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Communications; except broadcasting.................
Radio and television broadcasting...................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services..........
Wholesale and retail trade..........................
Finance and insurance...............................
.
.
159
296
1,202
4
18
118
166
1,159
5
24
987
249
628
4
21
101
135
192
165
24
44
298
709
736
257
62
195
406
352
150
63
22 9
626
244
572
48
609
1 ,125
359
1,142
78
166
477
14
13
26
95
293
16
23
21
159
393
2C
SC
141
302
17
16
49
279
564
33
54
35
156
299
17
25
44
15
120
202
96
108
11
112
256
94
103
7
64
191
52
58
46
135
527
121
126
22
147
273
99
106
11
105
158
70
92
19
122
183
91
122
110
263
189
59
114
43
10
88
10
111
32
9
71
12
84
81
12
74
12
46
65
14
159
46
47
11
119
10
56
167
32
80
18
39
49
11
89
14
46
70
66
29
61
24
147
103
33
120
47
41
36
24
42
22
39
34
22
39
22
90
59
19
36
48
55
5C
28
46
24
59
44
22
37
22
67
60
22
42
22
49
40
25
45
24
116
31
24
152
4,590
59
53
33
372
3,125
89
3 84
29
852
2,795
55
48
45
162
3,938
48
35
33
162
4 ,008
38
40
2 38
288
2,755
53
53
57
195
,C43
47
49
140
155
3, 796
42
248
101
253
2,762
48
45
56
168
4,000
.
.
3 36
80
516
6,193
1,624
445
111
446
6, 093
1,404
383
85
470
5,826
1,316
351
99
916
4,865
1,412
333
80
597
5,170
1,493
806
2C2
442
3 , 629
1,721
425
112
87C
i,022
,818
377
110
665
3,628
1,660
508
534
407
3,911
1,705
446
123
532
5,157
1,780
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental.............................. .
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... .
Business services................................... .
Research and development............................ .
Automobile repair and services...................... .
272
1,043
2,003
15
1,426
266
928
2, 766
28
545
239
855
2,121
30
485
201
646
2 ,464
49
453
2 37
7 39
2,005
29
437
472
1,111
5,025
19
390
302
,785
261
459
243
602
2,754
365
371
291
765
13,340
45
408
300
807
3,070
126
503
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements............................... ...........
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
Federal Government enterprises........ .............
State and local government enterprises.......... .
Gross Imports of goods and services.................
136
381
519
466
152
362
533
365
133
333
531
364
130
329
620
o78
123
365
563
479
247
349
1,399
362
171
337
80C
613
143
338
1,052
495
437
32 8
1,215
334
174
376
869
437
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts............
Office supplies.....................................
TOTAL.............................................
141,367
1 15,930
96,918
70,487
81,044
1 00,228
i,C75
59,922
65,189
62,224
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
652
5
22
20
12
820
See footnotes at end of table,
H
4="
W
TABLEA-3.
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)—^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^/— Continued
(Producer*' value,^ 1958 prices)
Industry number and title
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
..................................... .
.
.
.
.
.
Livestock and livestock products
Other agricultural products............... .........
Forestry and fishery products.......................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services.........
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.................. .
Petroleum
refining
and
related
industries
Rubber
and mis
cellaneous
plastics
products
31
32
220
313
25
38
16
Leather
tanning
and in
dustrial
leather
products
33
336
572
6C
64
22
198
214
91
33
11
Footwear
and
other
leather
products
Glass and
glass
products
Stone and
clay
products
34
35
36
Primary
iron
and
steel
manufac
turing
Primary
nonferrous
metals
manufac
turing
37
38
Metal
contain
ers
39
Beating,
plumbing
and struc
tural
metal
products
40
257
574
122
63
9
194
293
192
47
12
219
215
58
42
35
161
200
39
34
1,057
16C
210
36
35
96
159
194
36
35
399
187
233
54
49
340
108
3, 312
95
181
1,223
132
216
31
3,059
199
77
87
33
214
502
62
107
22
319
358
78
111
16
186
1
147
6C6
2
147
3
752
2
148
3
689
4
177
269
.
24
100
3,228
194
32
48
175
30
102
108
26
147
59
60
81
20
79
38
43
33
30
165
70
657
42
New construction....................................
Maintenance and repair construction.................
Ordnance and accessories............................
Food and kindred products........................... .
Tobacco manufactures................................ .
1,056
1
140
2
627
2
240
4
323
1
202
2
411
1
178
4
596
1
174
4
735
1
206
4
44
21
32
25
168
1,476
1,450
249
83
395
96
38
22
103
158
1 ,759
549
479
82
945
94
32
118
30
1,764
189
54
29
52
468
74
29
66
29
305
188
45
81
36
272
90
51
59
25
2 84
114
33
121
42
452
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrous metal ores mining........................
Coal sdning..........................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas.....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral sdning..............
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
.
If
3
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.....
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.....
Apparel .................. ...........................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products...........
Lumber and wood products, except containers.........
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Wooden containers...................................
Household furniture.................................
Other furniture and fixtures........................
Paper and allied products, except containers........
Paperboard containers and boxes.....................
10
6
4
354
142
20
24
13
849
515
117
4
2
335
177
52
30
6
864
651
295
135
5
1,575
3,233
95
7
5
1,213
5 06
24
14
6
335
123
12
10
5
377
135
41
11
6
582
546
74
74
99
397
278
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing............................. .
Chemicals and selected chemical products............
Plastics and synthetic materials....................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations............
Paints and allied products..........................
907
970
114
91
39
943
2,795
4 , 659
128
62
555
2,029
174
593
20
1 ,301
837
679
152
22
778
1,058
164
72
25
819
997
551
179
54
691
658
137
79
51
631
795
603
64
46
84 6
541
301
10i
384
707
42 7
181
48
.
.
.
99
320
3
15
54
120
924
17
17
54
lit.
349
10
20
240
482
1,346
29,929
21
79
451
14,270
1,767
24,371
298
606
9,494
2,894
23
38,503
246
787
836
25
20
159
934
725
28
44
112
1,200
1 ,786
144
109
218
52
143
81
92
122
41
558
104
304
1 013
21
642
54
324
575
24
901
67
504
5C6
69
611
208
778
798
32
13
85
21
162
34
11
123
10
228
32
15
343
18
87
29
19
347
3C
451
32
18
254
93
94
52
243
780
249
214
40
71
16
27
19
33
32
22
34
15
42
52
31
59
26
54
52
37
118
30
125
95
318
109
22
50
47
41
89
100
93
156
66
189
68
25
40
21
90
2 ,154
30
133
81
324
2 , 072
36
73
29
132
2,739
52
60
31
220
4,550
125
5 C22
81
73
27
175
2,903
76
65
28
139
3,839
405
561
36
163
3,158
344
103
513
4,306
1, 390
244
58
305
3,060
1,200
335
137
280
3 , 843
1 ,425
293
88
959
4,063
1,480
339
94
1,005
3,791
1,675
1 203
4 50C
1 579
336
77
913
4,647
1,606
301
86
731
5,088
1,524
407
92
635
4,885
1 ,613
900
375
3, 738
53
434
231
733
2,570
92
300
119
460
1,441
26
242
206
955
3 ,421
21
266
187
7 32
2,192
101
332
227
714
2 , 350
22
627
235
600
1 985
367
193
576
1,919
88
313
203
6C3
2,152
55
336
211
772
2 ,285
67
463
1.64
315
657
493
138
333
624
389
79
247
83 7
252
156
342
776
236
123
296
711
606
132
314
562
732
115
337
579
809
110
335
507
587
117
358
536
520
134
351
555
459
138 , 6 9 0
78,085
71, 106
60,858
70,626
83,214
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industries........... .
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... .
Footwear and other leather products................. .
Glass and glass products............................
6,1!7
217
2
io
42
124
3 3,523
40
141
595
89
595
36,602
233
68
57
3 ,099
7,068
1C1 ,157
97
83
4 32
3
17
4 6,934
153
785
8
21
101
19C
393
3
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Stone and clay products.............................
Primary Iron and steel manufacturing................
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. .
Metal containers....................................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
190
3 86
>55
186
73
292
423
270
51
63
501
153
110
46
21
279
212
130
23
34
1,455
260
194
30
54
42,488
509
226
30
76
745
38 202
945
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.........
Other fabricated metal products.....................
Engines and turbines................................
Farm machinery and equipment.........................
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........
94
657
43
20
98
262
643
15
18
31
85
166
8
8
19
113
494
12
20
15
2°6
337
13
21
42
173
707
19
18
151
543
1 117
37
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment..........
Metalworking machinery and equipment................
Special Industry machinery and equipment............
General Industrial machinery and equipment..........
Machine shop products.... ...........................
11
76
52
195
62
13
121
137
103
33 C
7
67
56
38
48
7
63
54
44
74
15
130
58
113
116
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines...........
Service Industry machines........................... .
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus.........
Household appliances................................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
49
11
151
9
29
39
10
97
24
116
22
5
58
5
63
46
9
50
9
76
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and communication equipment.......
Electronic components and accessories...............
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment....
Motor vehicles and equipment........................
Aircraft and parts..................................
52
90
23
47
21
89
70
26
35
73
23
21
13
23
12
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment......................
Scientific and controlling Instruments..............
Optical, ophthalsiic and photographic equipment......
Miscellaneous manufacturing.........................
Transportation and warehousing......................
47
31
31
103
4,125
51
109
64
352
2,943
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Communications; except broadcasting.................
Radio and television broadcasting...................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services..........
Wholesale and retail trade..........................
Finance and Insurance...............................
253
151
597
2,254
1,786
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental..............................
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
Business services...................................
Research and development........................... .
Automobile repair and services......................
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements............... ............................
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
Federal Government enterprises......................
State and local government enterprises..............
Gross Imports of goods and services.................
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts............
Office supplies.....................................
TOTAL............................................. .
33,989
69,460
55,934
74,805
1A
47
22
2oe
86
60
26
125
371
8C
116
See footnotes at end of table,
w
■pUl
TABLEA-3.
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OP DELIVERY TO PINAL DEMAND, 1970^--Continued
(Producer*' v a l u e 1958 prices)
Industry number sad title
Stamp
ings, screw
machine
products,
and bolts
41
Other
fabricated
metal
products
42
Engines
and
turblnaa
43
Farm
machin
ery and
equip
ment
Construc
tion,min
ing and
oil field
machinery
Materials
handling
machin
ery and
equipment
Metal
working
machin
ery and
equipment
Special
industry
machin
ery and
equipment
General
industrial
machin
ery and
equipment
Machineshop
products
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Livestock and livestock products......................
Other agricultural products...........................
Forestry and fishery products.........................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services...........
Iron and ferroalloy ores and nlnlng...................
196
251
75
40
244
205
272
98
44
239
184
211
30
36
145
199
266
55
188
170
192
224
38
40
207
241
2 94
43
47
162
192
230
35
36
117
233
288
74
45
127
217
252
42
42
145
179
209
23
33
111
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrous natal ores mining..........................
Coal mining............................................
Crude petroleum and natural gaa.......................
Stona and clay mining and quarrying...................
Chemical and fertiliser mineral mining................
280
342
81
101
20
291
330
74
105
24
187
241
57
82
12
100
268
60
92
15
101
299
65
97
14
131
228
61
85
15
159
169
55
76
11
215
187
62
74
14
172
215
58
2C4
13
311
176
75
113
11
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
New construction.......................................
Maintenance and repair construction...................
Ordnance and accessories..............................
Pood and kindred products.............................
Tobacco manufactures...................................
670
5
183
4
636
3
191
5
504
4
179
5
572
14
175
4
567
4
186
5
595
3
230
6
621
4
178
5
58C
9
224
6
597
7
212
6
724
2
167
4
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.......
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.......
Apparel................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.............
Lumber and wood products, except containers...........
122
48
129
45
645
157
71
128
30
864
103
46
105
36
218
125
73
107
32
461
100
46
110
29
291
220
72
121
32
320
10 3
39
124
43
274
166
49
127
25
626
119
34
122
26
32 7
83
24
137
22
152
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Wooden containers......................................
Household furniture....................................
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
Paper and allied products, except containers..........
Paperboard containers and boxes.;.....................
43
29
16
568
468
59
82
62
4 94
318
13
15
9
365
294
31
16
40
341
205
16
26
10
299
144
19
20
37
368
189
15
15
8
238
113
25
42
11
352
133
22
42
20
387
183
12
12
6
215
83
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing................................
Chemicals and selected chemical products..............
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
Drug*, cleaning, and toilet preparations..............
Paints and allied products............................
729
513
330
58
142
866
605
231
50
68
726
288
193
44
59
895
376
27 6
49
113
709
324
193
47
64
812
372
304
55
95
588
262
158
38
3*
723
364
238
49
39
6 91
321
169
43
48
563
240
132
44
25
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industries............
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products......
Footwear and other leather products..................
Glass and glass products.............................
•
•
•
•
•
1 20
600
12
50
126
109
584
9
29
74
87
561
12
24
98
91
1 ,366
43
25
82
97
773
11
20
68
92
1,213
18
44
104
83
452
9
27
88
96
619
45
23
77
86
455
15
22
70
113
277
25
154
44
36.
37.
38.
3?.
40.
Stone and clay products..............................
Primary Iron and steel manufacturing.................
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..............
Metal containers.....................................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products......
•
•
•
64 3
8,589
2,529
107
410
6C7
8,401
2,572
40
45 0
586
5,075
1,701
18
193
526
6,062
819
23
241
558
7,385
807
19
837
485
5,725
1,134
23
6 83
559
4,009
1,455
23
269
451
4,415
1,985
19
576
695
5,093
1,557
19
8 84
1 ,048
3,783
2,950
15
171
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
Other fabricated smtal products......................
Engines and turbines.................................
Farm machinery and equipment.........................
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.........
• 58,188
•
1,763
•
71
•
76
•
98
1,515
40 , 9 8 0
61
77
201
1,509
569
2 9,625
603
1 ,192
2 ,119
712
1 ,271
39, 0 9 6
556
893
1,065
895
783
37,030
1,293
1,432
482
263
2,002
1,68C
1,322
103
93
148
982
1,127
90
146
378
947
1,261
406
131
396
528
1 ,249
164
54
194
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment...........
Metalworking machinery and equipment.................
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
General Industrial swchlnery and equipment...........
Machine shop products....... ........................
.
.
•
•
•
31
871
79
218
726
68
1, 600
168
606
64 3
94
1 , 337
116
1,636
3,41 8
60
1 ,274
184
2 ,775
1 ,905
287
1,280
152
2,956
920
37 , 9 5 4
1,244
265
3,701
1,9 54
132
5 2 , C05
402
1,805
892
246
1,480
44,328
2,927
697
368
1,250
350
41,866
925
38
1,197
316
671
85,503
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines............
Service Industry machines............................
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus..........
Household appliances.................................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment...............
•
.
.
.
.
55
65
374
98
293
44
56
396
86
207
35
29
1,064
24
157
47
47
608
129
128
48
53
783
31
139
82
90
2 ,493
31
273
33
81
1,423
84
137
93
160
2,007
70
152
41
263
2,571
42
186
53
34
411
21
130
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and communication equipment........
Electronic components and accessories................
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.....
Motor vehicles and equipment.........................
Aircraft and parts...................................
.
.
.
.
.
90
124
88
661
58
89
116
69
212
47
106
117
784
718
269
88
87
375
483
104
123
108
139
419
73
140
201
165
338
106
116
127
90
1,140
158
712
488
72
168
132
258
242
1C5
252
418
110
85
137
175
98
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment.......................
Scientific and controlling Instruments...............
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.......
Miscellaneous manufacturing..........................
Transportation and warehousing.......................
.
•
.
.
.
77
169
48
353
3,003
102
237
36
267
2, 893
527
139
30
175
2 , 406
184
160
38
170
2,615
330
133
31
145
2,693
301
167
37
1,442
2 , 667
77
152
32
223
1,577
230
218
116
165
2,383
330
467
43
138
2,515
205
127
31
111
2,059
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Communications; except broadcasting..................
Radio and television broadcasting....................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services...........
Wholesale and retail trade...........................
Finance and Insurance................................
.
.
.
•
•
331
83
668
4,315
1,567
349
97
635
4, 674
1,468
331
88
425
4 ,004
1 ,305
356
131
463
4 , 736
1,500
374
96
511
4,619
1,438
420
107
459
5,501
1,604
525
80
421
3,842
1,377
616
89
450
4,812
1,420
597
88
475
5,231
1,348
469
75
486
3,913
1,440
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental...............................
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
Business services....................................
Research and development.............................
Automobile repair and services.......................
.
.
.
.
.
220
802
2,071
44
339
199
e2 5
2,422
42
358
175
748
2,190
553
256
194
733
3 , 274
52
344
191
779
2,392
47
3 30
240
913
2,674
38
338
265
819
1,985
26
266
225
505
2,225
25
377
204
874
2,204
34
315
251
836
1 ,874
26
325
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements...........................................
Medical, educational and nonprofit organisations..... .
Federal Government enterprises....................... .
State and local government enterprises............... .
Gross Imports of goods and services..................
128
342
541
472
140
332
545
450
137
32 5
497
321
157
325
661
358
139
337
506
375
161
345
607
351
126
303
453
307
144
331
518
339
143
329
531
355
121
314
489
346
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
Office supplies......................................
TOTAL.............................................. • 99,165
82,791
70,776
83,099
78,665
8 7 ,580
86,148
85,672
82,135
117,138
•
See footnotes at end of table,
H
TABLEA-3
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AMD INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^ — Continued
(Producer*1 value,2^ 1958 prices)
Service
industry
machines
Electric
Industrial
equipment
and
apparatus
House
hold
appliances
Electric
lighting
and
wiring
equlpsMnt
Radio,
televi
sion,and
comaunlcation
equipment
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
.
.
.
.
.
268
283
33
44
34
244
305
77
51
122
266
293
44
44
93
236
310
63
48
120
224
2 63
49
46
97
2 82
325
63
49
36
285
323
48
50
4S
245
290
36
44
89
201
306
43
45
151
126
162
36
25
61
6.
7^
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrous metal oras mining......................... .
.
.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. .
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............... .
85
72
32
37
10
246
203
61
83
22
2 92
153
51
66
18
202
205
56
85
23
271
161
52
90
26
127
95
40
55
19
177
114
50
77
.37
442
143
56
96
38
147
256
63
84
21
164
110
38
49
10
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Hew construction......................................
.
.
Food and kindrad products............................ .
.
414
13
274
8
665
8
229
6
533
15
269
7
6 06
7
220
5
516
3
217
5
528
132
281
8
550
47
276
7
525
5
237
6
796
6
172
4
451
336
116
3
.
.
.
.
,
91
42
103
20
223
149
62
120
37
651
115
41
117
25
325
292
104
121
36
519
120
58
123
27
379
163
51
119
27
498
115
38
143
29
335
217
127
134
49
229
548
252
115
474
341
104
50
113
20
293
29
49
23.
24.
25.
.
.
.
.
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
Paperboard containers and boxes...................... .
542
182
306
92
53
619
518
16
49
10
612
292
316
33
33
671
550
25
22
7
707
895
17
1,207
15
652
416
21
356
9
798
426
17
29
7
519
449
22
41
27
557
267
11
68
113
230
134
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing..............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
Paints and allied products...........................
. 1.021
.
261
.
214
.
29
.
40
8C6
582
330
58
160
692
493
413
39
93
1,879
622
4 86
51
165
706
742
8 29
50
135
928
5 54
465
42
47
660
1,114
438
46
46
869
1,090
685
53
42
1, C81
557
478
66
150
457
262
184
33
4
Industry number and tltl.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Livestock and livestock products.....................
Other agricultural products..........................
Forestry and fishery products........................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining......................
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings......
Apparel...............................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
Lumber and wood products, except containers..........
ia
Elec
tronic
com
ponents
and ac
cessories
Miscel
laneous
electrical
machin
ery and
equipment
Office,
com
puting,
and
account
ing
machines
58
Motor
vehicles
and
equipment
59
Aircraft
and
parts
60
1
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industrie*........... .
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products...........
leather tanning and Industrial leather products..... .
Footwear and other leather products..................
Glass and glass products............................ .
91
992
13
35
247
76
460
9
25
165
81
1,890
26
159
196
77
1,029
12
25
1,470
61
755
13
27
555
73
564
7
25
1, 120
82
2,486
10
31
220
92
1,675
21
28
765
55
537
5
19
89
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Stone and clay products..............................
Primary Iron and steel manufacturing.................
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............. .
Metal containers.....................................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products......
573
4,164
2,280
33
1,096
473
2 ,816
2,756
25
199
614
4,108
1,843
34
756
551
3,219
2,168
31
162
373
1,156
1,179
23
91
515
1,505
1,620
29
82
681
2,186
3,924
28
92
455
5,311
1,274
30
173
363
2,076
1,543
15
101
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..........
Other fabricated metal products..................... .
Engines and turbines.............................. .
Farm machinery end equipment.........................
Construction, mining and oil field machinery..... .
..
2, 546
1,577
116
52
97
1,161
686
43 7
39
113
3,271
1 ,724
61
51
80
1,591
1,052
35
35
65
1,469
813
28
21
44
1,637
855
30
18
66
1, 626
693
76
55
121
2,708
2,557
165
95
98
1 ,345
801
69
26
51
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment.............
Metalworking suchlnery and equipment.................
Special industry machinery and equipment.............
General Industrial machinery and equipment...........
Machine shop products................................
12
74
527
185
1,027
405
35
875
95
601
432
23
693
71
720
381
14
511
52
218
379
11
461
59
172
268
12
474
70
154
253
22
1,005
69
995
1,068
34
1,113
79
570
1,162
35
1 ,317
63
738
1 ,347
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing end accounting machines........... ...35, 504
Service Industry machines........................... .
Electric Industrial equipment and apparatus............
95>4
Household appliances................................ .
Electric lighting and wiring equipment.................
296
57
21,438
4,234
1,617
54C
68
26
41,532
40
974
119
786
2,119
23, 7 9 7
526
39
37
1,628
31
46,230
133
32
1,157
35
607
214
14
1,595
42
515
72
27
1,305
103
2,013
61
89
376
29
414
56
38
425
95
178
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
775
Radio, television and communication equipment..........
Electronic component* and accessories................ .. 7.586
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment.......
51
52
Motor vehicles end equipment.........................
Aircraft and parts................................... ..
179
359
349
83
389
189
801
1,844
174
122
62
158
218
73
165
53
238
375
1,211
92
24
32,168
11,197
67
64
220
1,227
46,812
75
62
30
432
550
37,118
849
53
544
313
887
19,653
50
1 ,495
938
205
242
45,264
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment.........................
36
263
Scientific and controlling Instruments............... ..
41
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.......
181
Miscellaneous manufacturing..........................
Transportation and warehousing....................... .. 1,852
118
1,035
48
222
2,799
300
799
64
142
2 , 414
165
1 ,461
136
254
2,769
52
223
37
363
2,445
52
436
146
225
2,547
44
341
48
192
2,225
62
321
58
180
2,605
120
397
46
213
3,267
53
1,083
127
185
1,593
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
3 59
Coomunicatlons; except broadcasting....................
Radio and television broadcasting......................
121
256
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.............
Wholesale and retail trade........................... ^ 4,836
1,039
Finance and insurance............................... .
416
109
486
6,334
1,657
364
81
401
4,175
1,122
515
318
472
5 ,339
1 ,290
324
94
423
6,197
1,194
362
122
291
4, 893
1,106
310
81
391
5,485
1,157
385
125
456
4,503
1,263
384
162
517
5,237
1,428
349
49
333
2,907
823
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental............................... ,.
1 85
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.... ,. 1,014
3,025
Business services....................................
17
Research and development............................ .
225
Automobile repair and services...... ...... ......... ..
277
881
2, 708
34
399
195
1,004
2,021
33
271
234
894
7,933
33
337
222
860
2,3 36
37
286
216
1,045
3 , 056
70
265
298
1, C89
2,014
10 2
24C
217
526
3,131
43
305
198
700
4,040
102
340
147
385
1,231
118
168
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements........................................... ..
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations..... ,.
Federal Government enterprises....................... ,.
State and local government enterprises............... ,.
Gross Imports of goods end services..................
181
269
566
2 15
160
361
634
377
151
324
652
309
298
351
955
366
145
328
609
331
184
338
758
256
156
320
77C
308
170
346
737
351
177
395
785
400
78
274
387
243
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts.............
Office supplies......................................
TOTAL.............................................. ^.65,796
71,305
77,425
7 6,978
85,951
76,908
81,953
81,752
67,003
73,870
3C
See footnotes st end of table,
4="
TABLEA-3
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^--Continued
(Producers' value,2/ 1958 prices)
Industry number and title
Other
transpor
tation
equipment
Scientific
and con
trolling
instru
ments
Optical,
ophthal
mic and
photo
graphic
equipment
61
62
63
64
65
Miscel
laneous
manu
facturing
Trans
porta
tion and
ware
housing
Com
munica
tions;
except
broad
casting
66
Radio and
televi
sion
broad
casting
67
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Livestock and livestock products......................
Other agricultural products...........................
Forestry and fishery products.........................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services...........
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.......................
233
359
235
60
160
383
553
46
68
51
213
261
51
40
26
339
700
231
85
48
201
308
27
39
10
85
105
14
14
3
302
343
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrous metal ores mining.......... ................
Coal mining............................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas.......................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying...................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................
163
257
69
98
22
202
100
41
55
17
127
140
55
110
58
185
126
60
63
35
21
65
166
43
8
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
New construction.......................................
Maintenance and repair construction...................
Ordnance and accessories..............................
Food and kindred products...... .......................
Tobacco manufactures..................................
597
3
208
5
477
151
378
8
457
11
203
4
721
3
274
6
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.......
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.......
Apparel....... ........................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.............
Lumber and wood products, except containers...........
174
69
139
55
2,161
567
111
259
55
318
133
48
97
36
367
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Wooden containers.....................................
Household furniture....................................
Other furniture and fixtures..........................
Paper and allied products, except containers..........
Paperboard containers and boxes.......................
28
412
251
394
187
33
94
215
613
470
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing...............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products..............
Plastics and synthetic materials......................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations..............
Paints and allied products........................... .
699
588
624
60
221
769
448
348
79
44
Electric,
M *.
water,
and
sanitary
services
68
Whole
sale
and
retail
trade
69
Finance
and
insur
ance
70
56
4
120
143
23
23
9
359
408
28
241
5
276
356
21
41
3
16
24
18
19
3
13
33
24
18
4
20
1,325
4S3
46
7
9
64
53
26
5
6
49
35
18
4
2 , 953
2
169
2
1,803
4
72
2
1,117
7
233
7
3,675
1
1C6
2
1,044
1
328
5
1,092
1
204
5
1 ,155
289
176
105
1 , 822
76
46
29
42
196
39
20
10
34
108
101
54
22
1C7
157
31
13
15
11
188
65
27
56
40
195
81
47
19
87
147
17
21
8
1,494
432
43
39
58
1 ,687
1,598
34
10
8
221
70
3
32
3
221
38
7
60
4
473
128
6
5
5
183
42
56
14
10
446
198
6
4
4
555
102
1 ,295
1,768
236
53
29
1 ,271
992
1 ,171
116
192
740
203
116
26
72
1,305
70
41
10
24
1,542
112
74
17
20
555
190
52
15
5C
1,264
137
63
43
24
2,427
107
60
29
18
24
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industries...........
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..........
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products.....
Footwear and other leather products.................
Glass and glass products............................
61
843
41
126
295
86
576
10
68
575
93
1 ,937
26 9
651
338
300
514
6
12
70
25
98
2
9
31
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Stone and clay products.............................
Primary iron and steel manufacturing................
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............
Metal containers....................................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.....
359
1 , 660
1, 800
83
130
979
618
1,101
31
43
279
1 ,511
1 ,710
41
81
132
310
178
20
126
67
101
149
5
64
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.........
Other fabricated metal products.....................
Engines and turbines................ .......... .
Farm machinery and equipment...................... ...
Construction, mining and oil field machinery........
1,243
1,054
41
38
68
439
607
24
26
42
818
982
22
35
37
106
201
81
15
23
58
69
6
8
7
25
89
15
75
117
106
141
2
8
32
73
23C
5
34
91
53
216
3
20
27
199
298
131
11
140
119
144
75
18
82
53
82
50
11
42
99
90
12
19
63
438
17
11
74
73
115
16
27
23
31
61
12
18
9
2
25
8
15
22
3
39
14
12
52
15
56
4C
9
39
26
40
67
3
21
14
16
28
59
4C
8
88
11
47
72
20
46
18
33
63
9
24
8
17
42
35
16
39
11
87
54
40
99
24
48
32
16
32
9
36
19
16
86
2,096
25
44
52
155
1,149
41
18
40
181
1,495
579
179
515
116,010
1,897
918
175
224
1,656
82,724
33
160
8
64
50
66
131
112
11
45
10
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment..........
Metalworking machinery and equipment................
Special Industry machinery and equipment............
General industrial machinery and equipment..........
Machine shop products................ ...... ..... .
15
872
127
444
966
10
331
116
79
164
12
183
85
135
355
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines...........
Service industry machines...........................
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.........
Household appliances................................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment..............
537
63
1,731
52
306
96
15
657
12
258
140
22
350
80
221
31
11
109
13
59
25
5
51
7
33
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and communication equipment.......
Electronic components and accessories...............
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment....
Motor vehicles and equipment........................
Aircraft and parts..................................
887
1, 990
102
402
398
357
205
169
49
25
22 7
225
49
79
39
84
90
125
172
190
824
322
27
15
9
1, 530
547
12
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment......................
Scientific and controlling instruments..............
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment......
Miscellaneous manufacturing.........................
Transportation and warehousing......................
121
41,891
2 83
404
2,297
60
76 8
4 1,918
208
2,162
139
122
41
46 , 8 5 7
2,650
453
72
20
144
5 2,493
32
20
20
116
516
21
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Communications; except broadcasting.................
Radio and television broadcasting...................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services..........
Wholesale and retail trade..........................
396
100
319
5,276
1,215
357
213
315
4,269
1,269
456
129
408
6,355
1,681
556
83
271
3,140
2,344
3 3 ,552
68
176
931
700
1, 744
38, 862
1: 948
1 630
246
70
16,876
2,044
1,126
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental..............................
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto....
Business services...................................
Research and development............................
Automobile repair and services......................
224
1,096
2,490
27
264
241
74 8
5,324
144
2 93
282
931
3,218
37
431
386
289
2,052
10
2 ,072
178
217
1,704
4
215
586
726
4, 419
7
250
225
265
1,733
6
325
523
902
4,460
5
925
864
598
4,362
5
517
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements..........................................
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations....
Federal Government enterprises......................
State and local government enterprises..............
Gross imports of goods and services.................
173
329
547
268
216
285
742
259
172
343
7 04
338
193
247
502
1,460
112
183
633
139
24, 219
28C
501
186
eo
229
2,490
8,444
315
244
1,538
544
230
1,054
2,054
386
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts............
Office supplies.....................................
TOTAL....... .................................... .
8 1 ,410
75,348
89 , 8 9 0
7 5,989
4 5,745
85 ,764
46,150
137,074
104,377
2,180
21
33
11
78
11
44
20
17
35
82
532
1, 111
212
See footnotes at end of table,
•6"
VO
150
TABLE A-3.
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (PRIMARY AND INDIRECT)^ PER BILLION DOLLARS OF DELIVERY TO FINAL DEMAND, 1970^/--Continued
(Producer*1 value,!/ 1958 price*)
Industry number and title
Real
estate
and
rental
71
Hotel*;
per
sonal
and
repair
service*,
except
auto
72
Business
service*
Research
and
develop
ment
73
74
Auto
mobile
repair
and
servlcas
75
Medical,
educa
tional
and non
profit
organisa
tions
Aanisements
76
Federal
Govern
ment
enter
prises
78
77
State
and
local
govern
ment
enter
prises
7*
Business
travel,
enter
tain
ment,
and
gifts
81
Office
supplies
*
82
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Livestock and livestock products....................
Other agricultural product*..........................
Forestry and fishery product*........................
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services..........
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining......................
951
1,747
26
166
7
284
474
41
56
10
263
317
46
43
8
303
345
30
43
6
193
277
27
49
36
415
387
22
133
4
453
485
30
58
fc
1,493
1,145
41
143
11
108
151
48
38
13
6,662
5, 944
257
681
13
371
558
273
75
20
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nonferrou* metal ores mining.........................
Coal mining........................................ .
Crude petroleum and natural ga*......................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............
14
38
53
56
6
27
77
76
43
17
19
110
45
28
11
10
30
20
17
10
59
160
56
66
15
10
36
24
23
4
13
57
42
3C
5
10
454
59
37
6
26
715
130
112
11
24
77
108
52
17
55
159
70
115
51
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
New construction......................................
Maintenance and repair construction..................
Ordnance and accessories.............................
Food and kindred products............................
Tobacco manufactures.................................
1
125
1
797
3
224
5
744
2
228
5
342
1
293
8
1,440
2
143
3
1,593
1
203
6
2,187
3
420
6
1,028
1
1,716
3
13,065
1
87
2
1,738
7
7,487
238
868
3
334
6
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills......
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings......
Apparel...............................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products............
Lumber and wood product*, except container*..........
45
14
41
17
210
960
122
612
554
265
113
56
41
76
370
258
173
90
250
188
266
183
64
207
202
65
39
18
74
149
126
52
145
96
187
55
21
18
51
158
43
27
35
14
430
241
59
198
141
273
426
142
81
93
2,461
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Wooden container*.....................................
Household furniture..................................
Other furniture and fixtures.........................
Paper and allied products, except containers.........
Paperboard containers and boxes......................
13
6
7
149
44
16
69
24
728
225
11
12
9
1,729
191
9
10
6
669
221
17
16
10
344
178
7
4
5
284
81
5
8
8
467
158
21
4
3
534
164
8
6
14
268
59
79
31
9
533
3 76
34
15
31
12,512
905
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Printing and publishing..............................
Chemicals and selected chemical products.............
Plastics and synthetic materials.....................
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations.............
Paint* and allied product*...........................
621
155
51
22
66
931
506
225
339
28
1 3,170
280
113
47
20
897
249
277
239
15
50
400
3 94
60
213
1 , 334
103
60
20
29
1,832
241
87
679
33
1, 328
136
59
20
25
86C
306
88
30
1 54
989
418
160
204
50
36,805
1,189
530
63
58
1
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Petroleum refining and related Industries.........
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........
Leather tanning and Industrial leather products....
Footwear and other leather products...............
Glass and glass products..........................
115
526
14
94
114
64
345
7
30
46
31
1 ,575
7
33
63
73
2 , 000
7
24
773
31
136
23
249
32
54
284
4
31
91
86
211
4
30
74
114
197
2
8
73
187
479
36
425
270
103
1,240
47
130
133
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Stone and clay products...........................
Primary iron and steel manufacturing..............
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing...........
Metal containers..... .............................
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products....
296
286
215
27
55
88
223
1 56
14
42
52
162
80
20
43
431
1,198
508
26
93
77
114
87
10
71
97
161
10 2
39
81
197
172
78
55
45
373
42 5
216
18
435
166
409
198
233
87
236
538
444
32
55
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.......
Other fabricated metal products...................
Engines and turbines..............................
Farm machinery and equipment......................
Construction, mining and oil field machinery......
167
279
14
17
17
103
149
122
225
48
60
102
19
18
11
544
1,138
41
30
38
42
66
11
18
10
106
106
11
16
12
67
139
21
15
27
85
343
12
11
53
191
2 54
42
43
21
245
647
17
23
29
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Materials handling machinery and equipment........
Metalworking machinery and equipment..............
Special Industry machinery and equipment..........
General industrial machinery and equipment........
Machine shop products.............................
5
66
37
48
73
5
98
54
61
75
5
116
21
33
42
12
273
39
151
1,551
3
22
11
17
24
4
35
21
27
43
9
40
13
30
74
13
48
18
52
66
14
85
27
63
97
11
109
179
82
126
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Office, computing and accounting machines.........
Service industry machines.........................
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus.......
Household appliances..............................
Electric lighting and wiring equipment............
54
106
160
32 6
83
74 9
100
90
18
38
45
81
56
17
21
47
24
166
16
337
55
10
33
11
24
54
1C
6C
13
31
28
6
40
7
30
27
15
90
30
S8
45
28
115
171
65
256
14
132
22
94
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
Radio, television and communication equipment.....
Electronic components and accessories.............
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment...
Motor vehicles and equipment......................
Aircraft and parts......................... ......
132
1,083
38
67
15
177
131
31
54
22
40
30
10
21
12
134
99
755
3,198
23
41
30
10
15
7
84
73
34
33
14
36
31
45
129
40
45
32
27
82
10
431
326
72
109
89
104
93
27
45
41
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
Other transportation equipment....................
Scientific and controlling Instruments............
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment....
Miscellaneous manufacturing................ ......
Transportation and warehousing....................
62
374
407
1 ,137
1,496
62
40
405
700
1,634
509
27
34
531
1 ,359
99
203
33
133
1,827
28
20
267
1,005
1,096
61
6 36
172
186
1,296
96
24
22
108
10,307
29
32
20
131
1,668
2 07
167
161
582
22,227
59
64
495
7,533
3,044
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Communications; except broadcasting...............
Radio and television broadcasting.................
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services........
Wholesale and retail trade........................
Finance and Insurance.............................
402
134
566
4,285
2 , 068
1 , 369
2,552
3 92
2,728
1,838
293
144
107
2,387
1 , 223
521
130
643
7,510
3 , 052
440
173
277
1 ,936
2,909
486
126
485
2,356
1, 583
305
8C
502
2,413
88C
335
74
1,716
2,462
1,290
451
120
353
7,409
1,950
621
162
561
4,393
1,62 6
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Real estate and rental............................
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto.. ...
Business services.................................
Research and development..........................
Automobile repair and services....................
514
152,615
3, 337
15
1 , 057
497
1,333
63,791
12
654
262
847
3,602
80,885
150
431
475
3,229
28
70,534
608
614
4, 299
4
153
652
1,356
3, 181
165
360
219
365
2,001
35
1,284
226
465
1,856
277
379
21,036
2,996
17
1,300
366
954
4,032
34
410
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
Amusements.................... ...................
Medical, educational and nonprofit organizations...
Federal Government enterprises....................
State and local government enterprises............
Gross imports of goods and services...............
163
280
533
459
1,832
184
3,465
303
1 ,348
246
324
117
152
3 32
637
5 84
1 37,245
284
493
227
630
146 , 3 61
475
353
117
130
126,281
543
83
113
545
55,646
2,398
1,171
567
797
203
342
1,067
440
81.
82.
Business travel, entertainment and gifts..........
Office supplies...................................
TOTAL...........................................
i 82;176
105,259
102,231
110,382
1 58,921
1 70,611
156*233
86,869
96,130
89,966
771
There is no eaiployment in Business travel, entertainment and gifts (81); and Office supplies (82)
which are duemy sectors and serve in an input-output framework as a central distributing mechanism
for itama produced by various industries but with a similar distribution pattern.
The figures in each column show total amployment directly and indirectly attributable to
$1 billion of delivery to final demand by the Industry named at the top. Employment shown does
not Include any multiplier effects from responding of income generated.
Valuation of final demand is at the site of production and excludes cost of transporting
and handling necessary to bring the item to the final user.
U
2/
151
1/ Primary mnployment ia employment required in the induatry producing the product or aervlce.
Thia lncludea not only the employment initially required by thia Induatry but any indirect employ
ment effect from ita aupportlng induatriea requiramanta. Indirect maployment covera employment in
each of the aupportlng induatriea. Employment covera wage and salary amployeaa, aelf-employed and
unpaid family workere.
Employment ia not generated by the following induatriea becauae they do not purchase goods and
services from other industries: Gross imports of goods and services (80); Scrap, used and second
hand goods (83); Rest of the world (85); Household (86); and Inventory valuation adjustment (87).
6
152
Table A-4.
Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970
(In thousands)
Sele cted years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
1965
3 per
cent
unem
4 percent unemployment
ploy
ment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
59,762
63,398
64,208
65.600
67,621
75,823
74,673
74,673
74,673
1,2
Agriculture— ^......................................
5,844
5,190
4,946
4,761
4,585
4,080
4,080
4,080
4,080
3
Forestry and fishery products.....................
61
61
63
66
68
69
68
69
67
4
Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services......
118
121
126
132
136
143
143
142
143
28
5
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.,.,..... ........
37
27
27
27
28
29
29
30
6
Nonferrous metal ores m ining......................
56
55
53
52
55
51
51
52
50
7
Coal mining............................... ........
215
152
149
148
142
124
122
122
122
8
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..................
328
298
289
289
282
240
238
238
239
9,10
Nonmetallic mining and quarrying.................
115
118
117
117
120
142
140
142
139
2,777
2,902
2,963
3,056
3,211
3,700
3,663
3,753
3,535
11,12 Construction.......................... .............
13
Ordnance and accessories.......... ...............
14
Food and kindred products.........................
IS
Tobacco manufactures..............................
16
Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills...
145
269
266
247
236
235
235
236
234
1,773
1,762
1,752
1,746
1,738
1,693
1,683
1,664
1,673
95
90
89
89
84
81
80
79
80
608
578
568
570
578
564
557
560
557
17
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings..
104
104
104
106
110
100
98
103
98
18
Apparel.............................................
1,256
1,337
1,346
1,363
1,419
1,514
1,494
1,487
1,495
19
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products........
126
146
150
154
161
178
175
177
176
20,21 Lumber and wood products................. ........
615
590
593
603
606
578
571
583
558
22
Household furniture...............................
260
275
279
293
311
360
356
384
354
23
Other furniture and fixtures......................
100
110
110
113
118
151
149
158
144
24
Paper and allied products,except containers.....
399
428
429
431
435
496
490
493
489
25
Paperboard containers and boxes..................
165
187
190
194
202
229
226
229
226
26
Printing and publishing................. .........
873
926
931
950
977
1,128
1,114
1,117
1,116
27
Chemicals and selected chemical products.........
401
414
408
409
419
425
421
424
419
28
Plastics and synthetic materials.... .............
143
165
175
183
199
224
221
226
219
29
D r u g s ,c l e a n i n g ,an d toilet p r e p a r a t i o n s ............
189
207
219
221
219
237
233
231
236
30
Paints and allied products.......................
61
63
63
64
65
65
64
65
59
31
Petroleum refining and related industries........
224
195
189
183
178
167
164
164
165
494
32
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products......
344
408
418
434
464
503
497
512
33
Leather tanning and industrial leather products..
41
36
34
35
35
33
32
33
32
34
Footwear and other leather products.........
318
325
315
314
319
329
323
323
323
35
Glass and glass products.......... ...............
142
158
160
162
167
180
177
182
177
36
Stone and clay products...........................
421
435
441
450
454
477
473
483
462
37
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.........
846
840
844
898
934
939
930
965
909
38
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing..........
307
326
329
333
362
388
385
398
378
39
Metal containers...................................
70
70
72
73
73
76
75
75
75
40
Heating.plumbing,and structural metal products...
421
407
416
435
456
512
509
524
495
41
Stampings.screw machine products,and bolts......
249
278
283
288
313
348
345
360
339
42
Other fabricated metal products....... ..........
336
373
379
392
419
470
465
481
458
43
Engines and turbines......................... .
90
84
85
87
90
90
89
93
88
44
Farm machinery and equipment......................
113
112
120
126
135
146
144
151
138
45
Construction,mining,and oil field machinery.....
145
149
152
163
172
203
201
209
194
See footnotes at end of table
153
Table A-4.
Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry and Selected Years and Projected 1970--Continued
(In thousands)
Selected years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
3 per
cent
unem
ploy
ment
1965
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
46
Materials handling machinery and equipment........
61
62
66
72
77
80
79
83
78
47
Metalworking machinery and equipment..............
231
259
267
281
299
336
333
346
323
48
Special industry machinery and equipment..........
161
171
172
181
190
217
214
225
206
49
General industrial machinery and equipment........
204
229
234
243
258
277
274
286
265
50
Machine-shop products..............................
136
167
169
172
184
211
209
215
208
51
Office,computing,and accounting machines..........
133
159
163
175
197
238
234
263
230
52
Service industry machines..........................
90
101
102
106
111
110
109
115
105
53
Electrical industrial equipment and apparatus....
304
350
339
340
365
395
392
410
378
54
Household appliances...............................
148
150
156
161
167
182
179
192
179
55
Electric lighting and wiring equipment............
121
143
150
156
167
191
188
195
185
56
Radio,television,and communication equipment.....
400
555
549
532
568
530
523
548
516
57
Electronic components and accessories.............
179
266
262
265
304
325
322
333
318
58
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment..
97
103
99
94
101
113
112
117
112
59
Motor vehicles and equipment.......................
603
692
741
755
850
788
777
825
762
60
Aircraft and parts................. ................
784
634
639
604
617
550
550
546
545
61
Other transportation equipment....................
217
217
229
246
272
322
318
334
309
62
Scientific and controlling instruments............
221
246
250
250
258
277
274
281
271
63
Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment....
103
112
115
119
127
140
138
142
138
64
Miscellaneous manufacturing........................
369
390
387
398
424
461
455
469
453
65
Transportation and warehousing....................
2,506
2,472
2,470
2,486
2,530
2,600
2,573
2,580
2,563
66
Communications;except broadcasting..... ..........
773
729
725
745
773
740
730
716
733
67
Radio and television broadcasting.................
87
95
99
103
108
121
119
119
119
68
Electric,gas,water,and sanitary services..........
610
610
610
614
620
645
638
626
645
69
Wholesale and retail trade.........................
10,750
11,566
11,778
12,132
12,588
14,195
14,037
14,237
13,898
2,013
2,270
2,334
2,406
2,468
2,864
2,828
2,704
2,833
492
518
543
558
574
650
631
597
632
70
Finance and insurance..............................
71
Real estate and rental.......... .
72
Hotels{personal and repair services,except auto...
1,672
1,787
1,804
1,878
1,951
2,168
2,119
2,011
2,121
73 74 Business services and research and development....
2,226
1,127
1,532
1,597
1,664
1,730
2,258
2,233
2,230
75
Automobile repair and services....................
257
321
288
302
314
360
354
339
354
76
Amusements.... .....................................
542
583
591
615
639
750
741
698
744
3,051
3,554
3,757
3,912
4,065
5,349
5,268
4,908
5,600
77
Medical.educational and nonprofit organizations...
78
Government enterprises, Federal...... ............
79
Government enterprises, State and local..........
84
Government, total...................................
86
See NOTE.
See NOTE.
7,839
8,890
9,225
9,595
10,046
12,683
12,262
12,236
12,411
Federal...........................................
2,191
2,340
2,358
2,348
2,379
2,524
2,510
2,497
2,510
State and local...................................
5,648
6,550
6,868
7,248
7,667
10,159
9,752
9,739
9,901
Private households........................... ......
2,550
2,694
2,656
2,683
2,604
3,000
2,950
2,950
2,950
1/ Agricultural employment includes self-employed and unpaid
family workers, as well as wage and salary employees.
NOTE:
ISP=interindustry sales and purchases.
ISP 78 and 79
are included in ISP 84.
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not
equal totals.
154
Table A-5.
Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970
(Percent distribution)
Selected years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
1965
3 percent
unem
ploy
ment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1,2
Agriculture— ^ .................................. .
3
Forestry and fishery products......................
4
Agricultural,forestry,and fishery services........
9.78
.10
.20
8.19
.10
.19
7.70
.10
.20
7.26
.10
.20
6.78
.10
.20
5.38
5.46
5.46
.09
.09
.09
5.46
.09
.19
.19
.19
.19
5
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining....................
.06
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
6
Nonferrous metal ores mining.......................
.09
.09
.08
.08
.08
.07
.07
.07
.07
7
Coal mining.........................................
.36
.24
.23
.23
.21
.16
.16
.16
.16
8
Crude petroleum and natural ga s...................
.55
.47
.45
.44
.42
.32
.32
.32
.32
9,10
Nonmetallic mining and quarrying..................
.19
.19
.18
.18
.18
.19
.19
.19
.19
11,12 Construction........................................
4.65
4.58
4.61
4.66
4.75
4.88
4.91
5.03
4.73
13
Ordnance and accessories........... ................
.24
.42
.41
14
Food and kindred products..........................
2.97
2.78
2.73
.38
2.66
.35
.31
.31
.32
.31
2.57
2.23
2.25
2.23
2.24
15
Tobacco manufactures................................
.16
.14
.14
.14
.12
.11
.11
.11
.11
16
Broad and narrow fabrics,yarn and thread mills....
1.02
.91
.88
.87
.85
.74
.75
.75
.75
17
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings...
18
Apparel..............................................
19
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.........
20,21 Lumber and wood products...........................
22 Household furniture.... ................. ..........
.17
.16
.16
2.10
.21
2.11
2.10
.23
.23
1.03
.93
.92
.16
.16
.13
.13
2.10
2.00
2.00
.23
.24
.23
.23
.24
.24
.92
.90
.76
.76
.78
.75
2.08
.14
1.99
.13
2.00
.44
.43
.43
.45
.46
.47
.48
.51
.47
23
Other furniture and fixtures......................
.17
.17
.17
.17
.17
.20
24
Paper and allied products.except containers......
.67
.68
.67
.66
.64
.65
.20
.66
.21
.66
.65
25
Paperboard containers and boxes...... ............
26
Printing and publishing....................... .
.19
.28
.30
.30
.30
.30
.30
.30
.31
.30
1.46
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.44
1.49
1.49
1.50
1.49
27
Chemicals and selected chemical products..... .
.67
.65
.64
.62
.62
.56
.56
.57
.56
28
Plastics and synthetic materials..................
.24
.26
.27
.28
.29
.30
.30
.30
.29
29
Drugs,cleaning,and toilet preparations............
.32
.33
.34
.34
.32
.31
.31
.31
.32
30
Paints and allied products.........................
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.09
.09
.09
.08
31
Petroleum refining and related industries.........
.37
.31
.29
.28
.26
.22
.22
.67
.69
.22
.66
32
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.... .
.58
.64
.65
.66
.69
.22
.66
33
Leather tanning and industrial leather products...
.07
.06
.05
.05
.05
.04
.04
.04
.04
34
Footwear and other leather products...............
.53
.51
.49
.48
.47
.43
.43
.43
.43
.24
35
Glass and glass products.... ......................
.24
.25
.25
.25
.25
.24
.24
.24
36
Stone and clay products......... ......... ........
.70
.69
.69
.69
.67
.63
.63
.65
37
Primary iron and steel manufacturing.......... .
1.42
1.32
1.31
1.37
1.38
1.24
1.25
1.29
.62
1.22
38
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing...........
.51
.51
.51
.51
.54
.51
.52
.53
.51
39
Metal containers............................ .
.12
.11
.11
.11
Heating,plumbing,and structural metal products....
.70
.64
.65
.67
.10
.68
.10
.68
.10
40
.11
.66
.10
.66
41
Stampings.screw machine products and bolts........
.42
.44
.44
.44
.46
.46
.46
.48
.45
42
Other fabricated metal products...................
.56
.59
.59
.60
.62
.62
.62
.64
.61
43
Engines and turbines......... .................. .
.15
.13
.13
.13
.13
.12
.12
44
Farm machinery and equipment............ ..........
.19
.18
.19
.19
.20
.19
.19
.12
.20
.18
45
Construction,mining,and oil field machinery.......
.24
.24
.24
.25
.25
.27
.27
.28
.26
See footnotes at end of table.
.70
.12
155
Table A-5.
Wage and Salary Employment, by ISP Industry, Selected Years and Projected 1970— Continued
(Percent distribution)
Selected years
Industry number and title
1958
1962
1963
Projected 1970
1964
1965
3 percent
unem
ploy
ment
4 percent unemployment
Basic
model
High
dur
ables
High
ser
vices
Basic
model
46
Materials handling machinery and equipment........
.10
.10
.10
.11
.11
.11
.11
.11
47
Metalworking machinery and equipment..............
.39
.41
.42
.43
.44
.44
.45
.46
.43
48
Special industry machinery and equipment..........
.27
.27
.27
.28
.28
.29
.29
.30
.28
49
General industrial machinery and equipment........
.34
.36
.36
.37
.38
.37
.37
.38
.35
50
Machine-shop products..............................
.23
.26
.26
.26
.27
.28
.28
.29
.28
.u
51
Office,computing,and accounting machines..........
.22
.25
.25
.27
.29
.31
.31
.35
.31
52
Service industry machines.... ...... ...............
.15
.16
.16
.16
.16
.15
.15
.15
.14
53
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus......
.51
.55
.53
.52
.54
.52
.52
.55
.51
54
Household appliances...............................
.25
.24
.24
.25
.25
.24
.24
.26
.24
55
Electric lighting and wiring equipment............
.20
.23
.23
.24
.25
.25
.25
.26
.25
56
Radio,television,and communication equipment.....
.67
.88
.86
.81
.84
.70
.70
.73
.69
57
Electronic components and accessories...... .
.30
.42
.41
.40
.45
.43
.43
.45
.43
58
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and equipment..
.16
.16
.15
.14
.15
.15
.15
.16
.15
1.10
1.02
59
Motor vehicles and equipment.................. .
1.01
1.09
1.15
1.15
1.26
1.04
1.04
60
Aircraft and parts........................... .
1.31
1.00
1.00
.92
.91
.73
.74
.73
.73
61
Other transportation equipment....................
.36
.34
.36
.38
.40
.42
.43
.45
.41
62
Scientific and controlling equipment..............
.37
.39
.39
.38
.38
.37
.37
.38
.36
63
Optical.ophthalmic,and photographic equipment....
.17
.18
.18
.18
.19
.18
.18
.19
.18
64
Miscellaneous manufacturing.......................
.62
.62
.60
.61
.63
.61
.61
.63
.61
65
Transportation and warehousing.................. .
4.19
3.90
3.85
3.79
3.74
3.43
3.45
3.46
3.43
66
Communications;except broadcasting............... .
1.29
1.15
1.13
1.14
1.14
.98
.98
.96
.98
67
Radio and television broadcasting.................
.15
.15
.15
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
.16
68
Electric,gas .water and sanitary services..........
1.02
.96
.95
.94
.92
.85
.85
.84
69
Wholesale and retail trade..... ........... .......
17.99
18.24
18.34
18.49
18.61
18.72
18.80
19.07
18.61
3.78
3.79
3.62
3.79
70
Finance and insurance...........................
3.37
3.58
3.64
3.67
3.65
71
Real estate and rental.............................
.82
.82
.85
.85
.85
72
Hotelsjpersonal and repair services.except auto...
2.80
2.82
2.81
2.86
73, 74 Business services and research and development....
.86
.85
.80
.85
2.89
.86
2.86
2.84
2.69
2.84
2.98
1.89
2.42
2.49
2.54
2.56
2.98
2.99
2.99
75
Automobile repair and services............ .
.43
.51
.45
.46
.46
.47
.47
.45
.47
76
Am u s e m e n t s
.91
.92
.92
.94
.94
.99
.99
.93
1.00
5.11
5.61
5.85
5.96
7.05
7.05
6.57
7.50
16.62
6.01
77
Medical.educational and nonprofit organizations...
78
Government enterprises, Federal....... .
79
Government enterprises, State and local..........
84
Government, total........................... .......
13.12
14.02
14.37
14.63
14.86
16.73
16.42
16.39
Federal............................ ...... ........
3.67
3.69
3.67
3.58
3.52
3.33
3.36
3.34
3.36
State and local..................................
9.45
10.33
10.70
11.05
11.34
13.40
13.06
13.04
13.26
4.27
4.25
4.14
4.09
3.85
3.96
3.95
3.95
3.95
86
Private households............................
See NOTE.
See TOTE.
1/ Agricultural employment includes self-employed and unpaid
family workers, as well as wage and salary employees.
NOTE:
ISP=interindustry sales and purchases.
ISP 78 and 79
are included in ISP 84.
Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not
equal totals.
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1966 0 - 2 3 9 - 8 7 7
@FedFRASER