Full text of Productivity and Costs : Third Quarter 1986
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News Bureau of Labor Statistics United States Department of Labor Washington, D.C. 20212 Historical, technical information: (202) 523-9261 Current data : (202) 523-1221 or 1208 Media contact: (202) 523-1913 USDL 86-438 For Release 10:00 PK EST Wednesday, October 29, 1986 PRODUCTIVITY MID Third Quarter 1986 The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor todafc reported preliminary productivity data—as measured by output per hour of all persons—for the third quarter of 1986. Based on information now available, the seasonally-adjusted anfitml rates of productivity increase in the third quarter were: 0.1 0.2 4.2 3.8 4.9 percent percent percent percent percent in in in in in the business sector* the nonfarm business sector, manufacturing, durable goods manufacturing, and nondurable goods manufacturing. Third-quarter measures are summarized in table A and appear in detail in tables 1 through 5. Business Productivity increased at a 0,1 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 1986 in the business sector, as output rose 2.5 percent and hours of all persons engaged in the sector increased 2.4 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates). Although productivity gains in both the second and third cjuarter were small, the third-quarter results reflect stronger underlying gains in both output and hours. During the second quarter of 1986, output rose only 0.3 percent and hours of all persons declined 0.2 percent (table 1). Hourly compensation increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 1986, compared with a 2.8 percent gain during the second quarter. This marked the third quarter during which hourly compensation increases were smaller than 3.0 percent, and only the second time since 1960 so little growth occurred over a 9-month period, this measure includes wages and salaries, supplements, employer contributions to employees-benefit plans, and taxes. Unit labor costs, which reflect changes in hourly compensation and productivity, increased at a 2.8 percent annual rate during the third quarter, compared with a 2.3 percent increase during the second quarter. Real hourly compensation, which takes into account the increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPt-U), increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter. Real hourly compensation increased 4.5 prcent in the second quarter of 1986, partly reflecting falling consumer prices. -2Table A. Productivity and costs: Preliminary third quarter 1986 measures (Seasonally adjusted annual rates) Sector Productivity Output Hours Hourly compensation Real hourly compensation Unit labor costs 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.8 2.1 -1.5 -1.1 -l.R CO 2.8 2.5 :r*-<< 0.1 0.9 --< -0,9 »*«™; Percent change from preceding quarter Business Nonfarm business Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 0.1 0.2 4.2 3.8 4.9 2.5 3.2 3.4 1.8 5.9 2.4 3.0 -0.8 -2.0 0.9 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.0 r"T*T| c^ny*. CD Percent change from same quarter a year ago Business Nonfann business Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 0.1 0.3 2.4 1.9 3,5 2.1 2.5 2.1 0.5 4.7 2.0 2.1 -0.3 -1.3 1.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 0,8 The implicit price deflator for the business sector, which changes in unit labor costs and unit nonlabor payments, increased 3.1 percent in the third quarter. Nonfarm business Productivity increased 0.2 percent in the nonfarm business sector during the third quarter of 1986, as output rose 3.2 percent and hours of all persons -^employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers—increased 3.0 percent. As in the ifere comprehensive business sector, output and hours grew more strongly in the third than in the second quarter, althou^i productivity gains were small (table 2). Hourly compensation increased a modest 2.3 percent in the third quarter, but fell 0.2 percent when the increase in the CPI-U is taken into account. Although hourly compensation increased at the same rate in the second and third quarters, real hourly compensation moved quite differently, reflecting the changes in the CPI-U. Unit labor costs increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter. The imgilicit price deflator, for the nonfarm business sector rose 3.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 1.0 percent increase one quarter earlier. -3lianafac taring Productivity increased at a 4.2 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate in manufacturing in the third quarter of 1986, as output rose 3,4 percent and hours of all persons decreased 0.8 percent. During the second quarter, output and hours both declined (table 3). Productivity grew in both durables and nondurables, bui. hours of all persons declined in durables while increasing slightly in the nondurable subsector (nearly half again as many people are employed in producing durables as are in nondurable goods). Output grew more slowly among durable goods industries (tables 4,5). Hourly compensation of manufacturing workers increased 2.7 percent during the third quarter, or 0.1 percent when the increase in consumer prices is taken into account. Unit labor costs fell at a 1.5 percent annual rate, compared with a 0.5 percent decrease during the second quarter of 1986. This was the third quarter during which labor costs have fallen in manufacturing. Next release date The AM EST, measures measures next issue of Productivity and Costs is scheduled for release at 10:00 Tuesday, December 2, 1986, and will contain revised third-quarter for business, nonfarm business* and manufacturing and preliminary for nonfinaneial corporations. -4- TBOWICAL NOTES Business sector output is equal to gross national product in constant 1982 dollars, less the rest-of~the-world sector, general government, output of nonprofit institutions, output of paid employees of private households, rental value of owner-occupied dwellings, and the statistical discrepancy in computing the national income accounts. Corresponding exclusions are also made in labor inputs. Business output has accounted for about 77 percent of gross national product in recent years. Total manufacturing measures are computed by sunning series prepared for the durable and nondarables goods sectors. The durable sector includes the following 2-digit SIC industries: Primary metals; fabricated metal products; nonelectrical machinery; electrical machinery; transportation equipment; instruments; lumber and lumber products; furniture and fixtures; stone, clay, and glass products; and miscellaneous manufactures. The nondurable sector includes these 2-digit SIC industries: Textile mill products, apparel products, leather and leather products, printing and publishing, chemical and chemical products, petroleum products, rubber and plastic products, food, and tobacco products. Manufacturing output has accounted for about 24 percent of gross national product in recent years, Nonfinancial corporate output is equal to gross national product in constant 1982 dollars, less the rest-^of-the-world sector, general government, unincorporated business, output of paid employees of private households and nonprofit institutions, rental value of owner-occupied dwelling, the output of corporations engaged in baking, finance, stock and commodity trading, and credit and insurance agencies, and the statistical discrepancy in computing the national income accounts. Nonfinancial corporate output has accounted for about 59 percent of gross national product in recent years. The productivity and associated cost measures in this news release describe the relationship between output in real terms and the labor time involved in its production. They shew the changes from period to period in the amount of goods and services produced per hour* Although these measures relate output to hours of all persons engaged in a sector, they do not measure the specific contribution of labor, capital, or any other factor of production. Rather, they reflect the 'joint effects of many influences, including changes in technology; capital investment; level of output; utilization of capacity, energy, and materials; the organization of production; mangerial skill; and the characteristics and effort of the work force. -5- Table 1. Business sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor cost, and prices, seasonally adjusted Year atid quarter Output per hour of all persons Output Hours of all persons Ccropensation per hour(l) Real conpensa* tion per hour(2) Unit labor cost Unit nonlabor payments(3) Inplicit price d@flatar(4) Indexes 1977«100 1985 I II III IV ANNUAL 1986 I II III 105,7 106.4 107.3 106.4 121.3 122.3 123.5 123.8 114.8 115.0 115.2 116.4 172.3 174.5 176.4 178.0 98.4 98.7 99.1 99.0 163.1 164.0 164.4 167.3 158.3 160.0 161.4 159.6 161.4 162.6 163.4 164.6 106.4 122.7 115.3 175.3 98.8 164.8 159.7 163.0 107.3 r!07.4 p!07.4 125.3 r!25.4 p!26.2 116.8 rl!6.7 pi 17.5 179.1 180.4 p!81.7 99.2 100.3 plOO.4 167.0 r 168.0 p!69.1 162.2 161.9 p!63.4 165.3 r!65.8 pl67.1 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate<5) 1985 1986 I II III rr 0.9 2.7 3.4 -3.2 3.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 2.6 0.6 0.7 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.4 3.8 1.0 1.0 1.8 -0.5 3.3 2.4 1.0 7.2 1.6 4.2 3.7 -4.3 2.7 3.0 1.9 3.0 ANNUAL 1.0 3.3 2.2 4.3 0.7 3.2 2.2 2.9 I II III 3.3 rO.5 pO.l 4.7 rO.3 p2.5 1.4 r-0.2 p2.4 2.5 r2.8 p2.9 1.0 4.5 pO.3 -0.7 r2.3 p2.8 6.6 -0.7 p3.8 1.8 rl.2 p3.1 Percent change from corresponding quarter of previous year 1985 1986 I II III IV 0.8 0.8 1.7 0.9 3.8 2.8 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.7 2.1 3.9 4.5 4.4 4.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 3.1 3.6 2.6 3.4 2.7 2.0 2.8 1.2 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 ANNUAL 1.0 3.3 2.2 4.3 0.7 3.2 2.2 2.9 I II III 1.5 rl.O pO.l 3.3 r2.5 p2.1 1.8 1.6 p2.0 3.9 r3.4 p3.0 0.8 1.7 ' pi. 3 2.4 r2.4 p2.8 2.5 1.2 pi. 2 2.4 r2*0 p2.3 See footnotes following table 6. r*revised p-preliminary October 29, 1986 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -6- Table 2. Nonf^rm business sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor oast, and prices, seasonally adjusted Year and quarter Output per hour of all persons Output Hours of all persons Compensation per hour(l) Real compensatlon per hour(2) Unit labor cost Unit nonlabor payments(3) Implicit price deflator (4) Indexes 1977-100 1985 1<W> I II [II ttf 104.4 104.9 105.4 104.5 121.1 122.1 123.3 123.6 116.0 116.4 116.9 118.2 172.1 174.0 175.4 177.0 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.4 164.8 165.9 166.3 169.3 158.9 160.8 163.0 160.3 162.7 164.1 165.2 166.2 ANNUAL 104.8 122.5 116,9 174.6 98.4 166.7 160.6 164.6 I II til 105.$ r!05.7 plOS.8 12S.1 r!25.3 pi 26. 3 118.5 118.5 pU9.4 178.3 179.3 p!80.4 98.8 r99.8 p99.7 168.8 rl69.6 p!70.5 163.9 r!63.7 pl65.7 167.1 r!67.5 p!68.8 Percent change Craa. previous quarter at annual rate(5) I II I£I IV 0.3 1.8 2.2 -3,5 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.9 1.2 1.8 4.6 3.9 4.6 3.2 3.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 -0.6 3.6 2.7 1.0 7.4 2.5 4.7 5.7 -6.6 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 ANNUAL 0.5 3,0 2.6 4.0 0.4 3.5 2.9 3.3 19«*> I II (U 4.3 rl>.5 pO,2 5.1 rO.6 p3.2 0.8 rO.l p3.0 -1.2 3.1 1.6 r4,0 rl.8 r2. 3 p-0.2 p2.1 p2.3 —^—^i Quarter of previous year Percent change from cc>r responding 9.3 r-0.6 p5,0 2.3 rl.O p3. 1 1985 I It til tv 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.2 3.6 2.5 3.1 2.8 3,1 2.3 2.1 2.6 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 3.4 4.0 3.0 3.7 3.7 2.8 3.7 1.5 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.9 ANNUAL 0.5 3.0 2.6 4^0 0.4 3.5 2.9 3.3 I II III 1.2 rO.8 pO.3 3.3 r2.7 p2.5 2.1 1.8 p2.1 3.6 3.1 p2.8 0.5 1.4 pl.2 2.5 r2.2 p2.5 3.1 rl.8 pi. 6 2.7 r2.1 P 2.2 19B5 1986 See Cootrv^te.^ following t^ble 6. 3.2 October 29P 1986 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Table 3, Manufacturing sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor cost, seasonally adjusted Year and quarter Output per hour of all persons Output (6) Hours of all persons Conpensation per hour(l) Real conpensation per hour (2) Unit labor cost Indexes 1977-100 1985 I II III IV ANNUAL 1986 I II III 119.3 121.7 123.0 122.9 118.8 119.9 121.2 121.9 99.6 98.5 98.5 99.1 173.8 175»6 178.1 179.3 99.2 99.3 100.0 99.7 145.7 144.3 144.8 145.8 121.7 120.4 98.9 176.7 99.5 145.1 r!23.7 r!24.7 p!26.0 r!22.8 r!22.7 p!23.7 99.3 98.4 p98.2 180.2 181.4 pl82.6 99.8 100.9 plOl.O r!45.7 r!45.5 p!44.9 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate(5) 1985 1986 I II III IV 3.9 8.2 4.4 -0.3 3.2 3.7 4.3 2.4 -0.6 -4.2 -0.1 2.7 5.5 4.3 5.6 2.8 2.2 0.3 3.0 -1.4 1.5 -3.6 1.2 3.0 ANNUAL 4.4 3.8 -0.5 5.0 1.4 0.6 I II III r2.6 r3.2 p4.2 r3.0 r-0.4 p3.4 0.4 r-3.5 p-0.8 2.1 r2.7 p2.7 0.6 r4.4 pO.l r-0.5 r-0.5 p-1.5 Percent change from corresponding quarter of previous year 1985 1986 I II III IV 4.0 5.2 4.4 4.0 4.8 4.0 3.2 3.4 0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 5.1 5.3 5.3 4.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.9 0.5 ANNUAL 4.4 3.8 -0.5 5.0 1.4 0.6 I II III r3.7 r2.5 p2.4 r3.4 r2.3 p2.1 -0.3 r-0.2 p-0.3 3.7 3.3 p2.6 0.6 1.6 pO.9 rO.O rO.8 pO.l See footnotes following table 6. rsrevised preliminary October 29, 1986 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -8Table 4. Durable manufacturing sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor cost, seasonally adjusted Year and . quarter Output per , Output hour '46) of all persons Hours of aU persons Compensation per hour(l) , Real ' •; ."." compensaUnit tion -per ' labor hour{2) cost Indexes 1977=100 1985 I II III IV ANNUAL 1986 121.4 124.4 126.3 126.4 122.6 124.1 125.6 126.4 100.9 99.8 99.5 100.0 172.0 173.2 176.5 .178.0 98.2 97.9 99.2 98.9 124.6 124.7 100.1 174.9 98.5 * 140.3 99.1 100.2 plOO.2 r!40.8 r!41.4 p!41.0 6.1 3.0 7.8 3.3 2.8 -1.0 5.1 -0.9 •''*'' "-1.9 r-6.61.6 r2.8 : -0.2 5.0 1.4 -0.6 r-4.8 p-2.0 2.2 r2.8 p2.7 0.7 r!27.1 r!27.4 p!28.6 I II III rl26.9 r!25.7 p!26.2 99.9 98.7 p98.2 178.9 rl80.2 pl81.4 " J 141.6 ,139.2 "139.8 140.8 '• Percent change from previous, quarter at annual rate(5) 1985 IV .8.2 10.2 6.1 0.5 ANNUAL 6.8 I II - Ill . >', : 7.2 5.1 4.9 2.7 6.6 -0.9 . -4.6 • -1.1' 2.2 -1.7 • 1. *" 1986 I II III r2.1 rl.O ,p3.8 ,' rl.5 r-3.8 pi. 8 .: r4.5 pO.l '•-,. rO.l •••/ rl.7 p-1.1 Percent change from, corresponding quarter of previous year 1985 I II III IV 6.5 r7.9 r6.8 6.2 8.7 7.4 5.4 . 5.0 2.0 -0.4 -1.2 . -1.1 4.8 4.8 5.6 5.0 1.1 1.1 ,, " ;£»1 .. ".r .-^g, r-1.7 -2.8 ': ' .;/.•. -i.T'' i- ??!.! . , . - , " '-'I,,.'..' :'. ANNUAL 1986 I II III 6.8 6.6 -0.2 5.0 1.4 -1.7 r4.7 r2.4 pi. 9 r3.5 rl.3 pO.5 -1.1 -1.1 p-1.3 4.1 4.0 p2.7 0.9 2.3 pl.l r-0.6 rl.6 pO.9 See footnotes following table 6* r=revised p=preliminary October 29, 1986 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -9Tablo 5. Nondurable manufacturing sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor cost, seasonally adjusted Year and quarter Output per hour of ell persons Output (6) Hours of all persons Compensation per hour(l) Real corapensation per hour (2) Unit labor cost Indexes 1977*100 1985 1986 I II III IV 116.0 117.5 118.0 117.6 113.2 113.6 114.5 115.1 97.6 96.7 97.0 97.9 176.5 179.4 180.4 181.3 100.8 101.5 101.3 100.8 152.1 152.7 152.8 154.1 ANNUAL 117.3 114.1 97.3 179.4 101.0 152.9 I II III rl!8.6 r!20.7 p!22.1 rll6.7 rl!8.2 pl!9.9 98.3 r97.9 p98.2 182.2 183.5 p!84.9 100.9 102.1 p!02.2 rl53.6 r!52.1 p!51.4 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate(5) 1985 1986 I II III IV -2.6 5.2 1*8 -1.4 -2.8 1.5 3.3 ANNUAL I II III 1..9 -0.2 -3.5 1.5 3*4 4.4 6.9 2.1 1.9 1.2 2.8 -0.4 -2.3 7.2 1.7 0.3 3.4 0.7 -0.3 -1.0 5.0 1.4 4.3 r3.5 r7.0 p4.9 r5.6 r5.3 p5.9 2.0 r-1.6 pO.9 2.2 r2.9 p3.C 0.7 r4.6 pO.4 r-1.3 r-3.9 p-1.8 Percent change from corresponding quarter of previous year 1985 1986 I II III IV 0.1 1.2 0.9 U.7 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 1.0 -1.0 -2.3 -1.1 0.3 5.3 6.1 4.9 3.8 1.7 2.3 1.5 0.3 5.2 4.8 4.0 3.1 ANNUAL 0.7 -0.3 -1.0 5.0 1.4 4.3 I II III r2.2 r2.7 p3.5 r3.1 r4.0 p4.7 0.8 1.3 3.3 2.3 P2.5 0.2 0.6 pO.8 rl.O r-0.4 p-0.9 See footnotes following table 6* r-revised p-prwlirainary pia October 29, 1986 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Table 6. Nonfinancial corporations: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor cost, unit profits, and prices, seasonally adjusted Output Year per alland quarter employee hour Output Employee Hourly Real hours canpensa- hourly tion ccmpen(1) sation<2) Unit labor cost Unit nonlabor ccst(7) Total unit cost (8) Unit Implicit pro- price fits deflator (9) (4) Indexes 1977*100 1985 1986 I II III IV 106.0 106.5 107.8 107.0 123.1 124.2 126.0 126.1 116.1 116.6 116.8 117.8 169.9 171.6 173.1 174.5 97.0 97.0 97.2 97.0 160.3 161.1 160.5 163.0 178.5 179.8 178.3 179.8 164.9 165.8 165.0 167.2 129.3 130.2 141.7 131.2 160.6 161.6 162.2 162.9 ANNUAL 106.8 124.8 116.9 172.3 97.0 161.2 179.1 - 165.8 133.1 161.8 106.9 r!06.8 126.9 r!26.6 118.7 118.5 175.4 r!76.1 97.1 97.9 164.0 r!64.8 168.3 r!68.6 131.7 r!32.3 164.0 r!64.3 I II 181.1 r!79.9 Percent change fran previous quarter at annual rate(5) 1985 1986 I II III IV 0.8 2.2 4.9 -2.8 3.2 3.7 5.9 0.5 2.4 1.4 1.0 3.4 3.6 4.2 3.4 3.3 0.6 0.2 0.9 -0.9 3.0 2.0 -1.4 6.3 2.2 3.0 -3.3 3.3 2.8 2.3 -1.9 5.5 -3.6 3.0 40.1 -26.4 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.7 ANNUAL 1.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 0.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 -0.2 2.4 I II -0.5 r-0.3 2.6 r-1.1 3.1 r^0.8 2.0 rl.6 0.5 r3.3 2.5 rl.9 3.1 r-2.7 2.7 rO.6 1.3 r2.0 2.5 rO.7 Percent change from corresponding quarter of previous year 1985 1986 I II III IV 0.6 0.6 2.2 1.2 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.3 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.1 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 3.2 3.5 1.6 2.4 4.3 3.9 1.1 1.3 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.1 -3.8 -5.9 8.7 0.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.0 ANNUAL 1.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 0.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 -0.2 2.4 I II 0.9 rO.3 3.2 r2.0 2.2 1.7 3.2 2.6 0.2 0.9 2.3 r2.3 1.5 rO.O 2.1 rl.7 1.8 rl.6 2.1 rl.7 See footnotes following table 6. r«revised p^preliminary October 29, 1986 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -11SOUPCE: Output data from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commence, and the Federal Reserve Board. Compensation and hours data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. RELIABILITY: Productivity and cost measures are regularly revised as more complete information becomes available. Preliminary results are published 30 days after the close of the reference period; revisions appear 30 days later, and second revisions after an additional 60 days. In the business sector, the probability is 0.95 that the third publication (second revision) of a quarterly index of output per hour of all persons will differ from the preliminary value by between -1.7 and +1.9 index points. Ihis interval is based on the performance of this measure between the first quarter of 1976 and the second quarter of 1985. Footnotes, Tables 1-6 (1) Wages and salaries of the employees plus employers' contributions for Social insurance and private benefit plans. Bccept for nonfinancial corporations, vrtiere there are no self-employed, data also include an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. (2) Condensation per hour adjusted for changes in the Consumer Price Indec for All Urban Consumers. (3) Unit nonlabor payments include profits, capital consumption allowances, interest, rental income of persons, and indirect taxes. (4) Current dollar gross product divided by constant dollar gross' product. (5) Quarterly changes: percent change compounded at annual rate from the original data rather than index numbers. Annual changes: percent change between annual average levels. (6) Quarterly manufacturing output measures are based on the indet of industrial production prepared monthly by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve adjusted by BLS to annual manufacturing output levels (gross product originating) from the National Income and Product Accounts prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. (7) Unit nonlabor cost includes capital consumption allowances, rental income of persons, and indirect taxes. interest, (8) Total unit cost is the sun of labor and nonlabor costs. (9) Unit profits include corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.