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SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEM ENT Bulletin No. 1351-1 PRICES: A CHARTBOOK, 1953-62 • A N A LY SIS • CHARTS U N IT E D ST A T E S D E P A R T M E N T OF L A B O R BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS RECENT BLS PUBLICATIONS ON PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS Prices: A Chartbook, 1953-62. Bulletin 1351. 206pp. $1.50 An analysis of price trends containing a summary text, 165 charts on prices and related economic indicators, and 280 tables. Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes, 1960. Bulletin 1376. 305pp. $1.50 Price indexes for commodity groups and specific commodities as well as actual prices for selected commodities. Also includes brief descriptions of index methodology, relative importances of groups and commodities, item specifications, and I960 price developments. Seasonal Factors, Consumer Price Index: Selected Series, June 1953-May 1961. B L S Bulletin 1366. 47pp. 30 cents Tables giving seasonal factors and matching indexes for 66 series are preceded by brief methodological and technical notes. Survey of Consumer Expenditures, 1960-61 Advance reports on family expenditures and income from the I960 part of the survey of consumer expenditures. Data for 23 metropolitan areas are classified by family income, family size, age of head, occupation of family head, and tenure. Supplement 1 to each report gives education of family head, race, family type, and full-time earners. Data for 16 smaller cities are grouped in four regional reports. Single copies free. Report No. Atlanta, Ga. Austin, Texas Baltimore, Md. Boston, Mass. Buffalo, N.Y. Cedar Rapids, Iowa Champaign-Urbana, 111. Chicago, 111. Cleveland, Ohio Dallas, Texas Detroit, Mich. Indianapolis, Ind. Los Angeles, Calif. New York, N.Y. Northern New Jersey 237-6 237-12 237-16 237-7 237-18 237-17 237-23 237-5 237-21 237-20 237-1 237-10 237-22 237-4 237-13 Report No. Orlando, Fla. Philadelphia, Pa. Pittsburgh, Pa. Portland, Maine St. Louis, Mo. San Francisco, Calif. Seattle, Wash. Washington, D. C. 237-19 237-8 237-11 237-14 237-15 237-2 237-9 237-3 Regional North Central: 5 cities Northeast: 3 cities South: 6 cities West: 2 cities 237-27 237-24 237-25 237-26 Order sale publications from the Bureau’ s regional offices (see inside back cover) or from the Super intendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington 20402, D. C. Single copies of free publications can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Wash ington 25, D. C. or regional offices. SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Bulletin No. 1351-1 PRICES: A CHARTBOOK, 1953-62 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR B U REA U OF L A B O R S T A T IST IC S by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 2 0 4 0 2 - Price 4 5 cents DigitizedFor forsale FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ II Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREFACE In this supplement to Prices: A Chartbook, 1953-62 the Bureau of Labor Statistics has brought up to date key charts from the more comprehensive volume. The September 1963 Supplement includes data through June 1963, and consists of an analytical text, followed by a chart section and appendix tables. Although dealing primarily with the Consumer and Wholesale Price Indexes regularly pub lished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a variety of other pertinent economic statistics are included. The Supplement was prepared u n d e r the supervision of Pearl C. Ravner under the general direction of Arnold E. Chase, Assistant Commissioner, Prices and Living Conditions. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ IV Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONTENTS Page Preface ............................................................................................................................ iii Recent price tre n d s ...................................................................................................... Used car prices ............................................................................................................ Measuring changes in the general price level ............................................................ 8 13 1 Chart Section List of c h a r t s .............................................................................................................. T re n d s ............................................................................................. Farm and food prices, wholesale and consumer, since 1953 .............................................................................................................. Wholesale Price Index, since 1953 ...................................................................... Consumer Price Index, since 1953......................................................................... 25 27 34 40 46 Appendix Tables Table 1. Consumer Price In d e x e s ................................................................ Table 2. Wholesale Price In d exes...................................................................... Table 3. Related economic trends...................................................................... 55 57 60 V CHART 1. DAILY INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, MONTHLY AVERAGES, SINCE JANUARY 1961 In d e x In d e x CHART 2. ' n<^ex VI PRICES, PRODUCTION, AND CONSUMER EXPENDITURES, JANUARY 1961-JUNE 1963 In d e x SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT RECENT PRICE TRENDS CHART 3. CONSUMER AND WHOLESALE PRICES, DECEMBER 1960-JUNE 1963 Prices were relatively stable throughout the first half of 1963 while industrial produc tion turned upward and the amount of consumer spending continued to advance. (See chart 2.) Overall wholesale prices have changed very little in the last 5 years and, in June 1963, were almost identical with their 1957-59 level. The Consumer Price Index has continued to move upward at an average rate between 1.0 and 1.5 percent a year, chiefly because of fur ther price increases for services. In June 1963, the C o n s u m e r Price Index was 6.6 percent higher than in the 1957-59 base period and 1.2 percent above the previous June. At the wholesale level, farm product prices have tended down, processed food prices were relatively stable except for seasonal influences and the impact of the much-publicized rise in sugar prices, and prices of industrial commod ities as a group were virtually motionless. At retail, prices of durable commodities, food, and other nondurables have trended upward slightly. Consumer service prices have continued their long-term advance, but at a diminishing rate. The current business expansion, however, has been reflected to a certain extent by in creases in the prices of some industrial com modities, notably steel, nonferrous metals, some types of machinery, and certain construction materials. Despite peak automobile sales and production, new car prices—both at wholesale and retail—are slightly below June 1962 levels. On the other hand, used car prices which fell sharply in January, have moved substantially upward since then, and are responsible for the uptrend in prices of consumer durables. Considerable stability has also been evi denced thus far in 1963 by the raw industrial component of the daily index of spot market prices (composed of 22 basic commodities, par ticularly sensitive to market conditions). A slight overall d o wn t r e n d in raw industrials resulted from a decline in textiles and fibers Digitized PRICES: for FRASERA CHARTBOOK prices which more than offset a rise in the metals index. (See chart 1.) At the consumer level, increases in State and local sales taxes, as well as real estate taxes on owned homes, have been significant factors. As pressure for educational and other services to meet the needs of the expanding population increase, some States have turned to new or higher sales taxes as a means of solving their financial problems. Thus, in June 1963, the rise in the Consumer Price Index was in some part due to higher sales taxes adopted in Pennsylvania and in New York City. Price developments during the first half of this year do not seem to indicate any signif icant upward pressures—other than seasonalon -farm and food prices. However, if price changes in some areas announced by producers occur as planned, a moderate uptrend in whole sale prices of industrial commodities may take place in the latter part of 1963 which will prob ably be reflected subsequently at the consumer level. Prices of c o n s u m e r services are 1 expected to continue to advance, slower rate. but at a No strong inflationary forces appear at work in the economy today. Excess demand pressures appear to be absent. Increasing pro ductive capacity and improving technology, as well as competition from foreign imports, will probably temper any upward price impetus. were 2.7 percent higher than a year ago. All major groups in the service component have showed a slackening in their upward trend. (See chart 4.) In each instance, the annual rate of price increase since I960 has been significantly below the 1952-60 average and, in a number of cases, has slowed down even more in the first half of 1963. Consumer Services Percent Increase in Annual Average The prices that consumers pay for serv ices continued to move upward, as they have each year s i n c e the end of World War II. However, the rate of increase, which slowed significantly after I960, has continued to mod erate. (See chart 4.) Between 1953 and I960, the annual increase in service prices averaged 2.9 percent a year. From I960 to 1961, the rate dropped to 1.9 percent and, during the first half of this year, prices averaged 1.6 percent above the first 6 months of 1962. Prices of medical care services, as in the past, are ad vancing the most rapidly and, in June 1963, 2 for FRASER Digitized Average annual increase^ 1962-6 31 1961-62 1960-61 1952-60 All services 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.9 Rent Household operation Transportation Medical care Other services 1.0 1.8 0.4 2.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 3.3 1.8 1.3 1.2 2.3 3.7 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.7 3.9 2.5 * F o r f i rst 6 mont hs of e a c h y e a r onl y. While the rate of increase slackened for all groups, the deceleration was greatest for transportation services. Each component—auto CHART 4. YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN CONSUMER SERVICE PRICES, SINCE 1959 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT repairs, registration, and insurance, as well as public transit and railroad fares—slowed its rate of advance after I960. In the medical care services group, hospitalization insurance was chiefly responsible for the slowdown in the rate of increase. From a 1952-60 average in crease of 7.6 percent, the rate of advance for hospitalization insurance receded to 4.6 per cent between 1961 and 1962, and to 3.7 per cent between the second quarter of 1962 and the second quarter of 1963. This, of course, was still a substantial rise. On the other hand, physicians’ fees and hospital charges have continued to advance at about the same rate as in earlier years. In the large "other services” category, the decline in mortgage interest rates since I960 has been most significant. In the past few years, funds available for investment in mortgages have exceeded the demand. (See chart 5.) However, for movie admissions, men’s haircuts, shoe repairs, and floor refinishing, the rate of price increase quickened during the first half of 1963. Between 1952 and June 1963, the price of consumer services rose 32 percent compared with 8 percent for food, and 7 percent for retail prices of all other commodities. In relation to the prewar price structure, however, consumer services have not yet caught up with increased food prices and have only recently caught up with price increases for nonfood commodities. (The cost of services rose much less than com modity prices during World War 11—13 percent compared with 55 percent from 1939 to 1946.) One source of upward pressure upon serv ice prices has come from increased expendi tures for services. The services share of total consumer spending has trended upward since 1947, in both real and current dollar terms. In addition, the rate of productivity improvement is lower for certain services than for most goods-producing industries. Although satisfactory data concerning output per-manhour in the service industries are not available, it is generally accepted that http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ PRICES: A CHARTBOOK Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CHART 5. TIME DEPOSITS AND MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES, JANUARY 1962-JUNE 1963 productivity gains in some service industries have lagged behind those of the economy as a whole. For many services included in the Con sumer Price Index, such as haircuts, auto repair, and housepainting, increased costs often can not be sufficiently offset by greater efficiency. (An outstanding exception has been the utility sector which has experienced greater than average productivity gains.) On the whole, therefore, prices in the service industries—particularly those where productivity gains are limited—are generally responsive to increases in costs. As a result, some of the recent slowdown in the uptrend of service prices may be due to the slackening pace at which costs have increased over the last few years. Despite the recent diminishing upward rate, there is little indication of any overall leveling off in service prices. Scarcities in some of the services such as hospital care and low-cost housing; the effect of declining de mand on unit costs in railroad and public transit systems; and the fact that many service industries are not readily susceptible to im provements in productivity will tend to maintain the uptrend for the near future. 3 Digitized 4 for FRASER Farm a n d Food Prices In the first half of 1963, farm product prices edged down; wholesale prices of proc essed foods, which declined early in the year, turned up in late spring, and retail prices of food at home were consistently above yearearlier levels. (See chart 6.) Restaurant meals— with their high service component—continued to rise each month. Fa rm Products. The downturn of farm products prices in the first 5 months of 1963 was largely due to heavy livestock marketings. This was, in part, an aftermath of the price up trend which began in the summer of 1962 and reached a peak in September as farmers with held meat animals from slaughter. Subsequently, both cattle and hog prices moved downward, and the decline continued throughout most of the first half of 1963. Hog prices rose sharply in May and June as market supplies became seasonally low. Fed cattle prices showed signs of recovering in late June and are expected to increase during the third quarter of 1963. However, supplies continue sufficiently high to keep prices from rising unduly. On January 1 this year, there were 4 percent more cattle on farms than a year earlier, and the number of hogs had risen 3 per cent. 1 In contrast with the decrease in livestock prices in early 1963, grain prices reached their highest levels in 5 years in April due to lowered supplies of both wheat and corn. (The defeat of the May 1963 wheat referendum is not ex pected to directly affect prices of this year's crop.) Freeze damage during the winter con tinued to push the price of citrus fruits upward. Despite the general uptrend for grains and fruits over the first half of the year, and the substantial May to June increases in corn ^"Cattle, Hogs, and T u r k e y s Increase—Sheep and Chickens Down” Agricultural Situation, (monthly) March 1963, p. 1. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Wash.) SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT and hog prices, farm product prices in June were fractionally lower than the year before, and about 5 percent below the 1957-59 level. In June 1963, wholesale prices of vegetables, wheat, and steers were well below year-earlier levels. came a major cause of the 0.9 percent increase over May in the index for all food consumed at home. Prices of I n d u s t r i a l C o m m o d i t i e s a drop in wholesale prices for processed foods, chiefly meats, but a swing upward after April. Retail prices for food at home remained rela tively stable throughout the first half of the year. Lower prices for meats, dairy products, and eggs offset higher prices for other foods, particularly fruits and vegetables. Restaurant meal prices continued upward and, in June 1963, were 13 percent above their 1957-59 average and over 2 percent higher than in June of 1962. Overall wholesale prices for all commod ities other than farm and food r e ma i n e d unchanged in the first half of 1963, while con sumer prices for nonfood commodities rose 0.6 percent. Thus, the price stability in the indus trial sector which the economy has experienced since the late 1950’s continued. Wholesale i n d u s t r i a l prices have been almost at a standstill since 1958, with some downward drift after I960. Consumer nonfood commodity prices—pushed by small increases for nondura bles—have inched upward. Sharp price increases for raw and refined sugar caused the wholesale processed foods index to rise 2.4 percent between mid-April and mid-May. By mid-June, raw sugar prices had declined but were still over 40 percent higher than last June. Meanwhile, the price increase had been passed on to producers of some prod ucts containing sugar. The impact was felt at the retail level in June when sugar prices rose 32 percent above the previous month, and be In spite of this overall stability, signifi cant price movements have occurred in certain commodity groups which reflect, to some extent, the current business expansion. These include steel, nonferrous metals, prices for certain types of m a c h i n e r y , and some construction materials. On the other hand, average whole sale prices of some industrial commodities— chemicals, leather, and pulp and paper—were below last year’s levels. Food. The early months of 1963 also saw K E Y W H O L E S A L E AND C O N S U M E R P R I C E S , 1 953-June 1963 (1957-59=100) Consumer Wh o l e s a l e P r i c e I n d e x Price Index Co mmo di t i e s Y ear or Month 1953 1954 1 955 1956 1 95 7 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 All c o m mod ities ............................. . 9 2 . 7 92 .9 ............................. 93.2 ............................. 96.2 ............................. 99.0 ............................. 100.4 ............................. ............................. 1 0 0 . 6 ............................. 1 0 0 . 7 ............................. 100.3 ............................. 1 0 0 . 6 1 963 J a n .................................. F e b ................................. M a r .................................. A p r .................................. M a y ............................. J u n e ............................. 1 00.5 100.2 99.9 99.7 100.0 100.3 F arm P r o c e s s e d p r o duc t s f oods All ot her c ommoditle s Dur abi l i t y Al l i t e ms Nondur abl e Services Al l Dur abl e Nondur abl e g oo d s goods Dur abl e F ood L e s s f ood 105.9 104.4 97.9 96.6 99.2 103.6 97.2 96.9 96.0 97.7 97.0 97.6 94.3 94.3 97.9 102.9 99.2 100.0 100.7 101.2 Annual Averages 90.1 8 5 .2 98.3 90.4 86.0 98.1 96.1 92.4 89.5 96.5 95.4 96.9 98.6 99.2 99.4 99.5 99.6 101.0 1 01.8 99.6 101.3 1 01.7 99.9 101.3 100.8 99.6 101.3 100.8 101.0 100.1 Mont hl y I n d e x e s , 1 9 6 3 93.2 93.6 93.3 94.7 98.0 100.7 1 01.5 1 03.1 104.2 105.4 87.5 89.8 91 . 4 93.4 97.0 100.3 102.7 105.6 107.6 109.5 96.4 95.4 94.4 95.3 98.4 100.7 101.0 101.7 102.4 103.2 101.6 97.7 94.9 94.9 98.2 99.7 102.0 100.7 100.5 101.5 95.6 95.4 94.0 94.7 97.8 101.9 100.3 101.4 102.6 103.6 94.0 94.4 94.4 96.5 99.1 99.8 101.0 102.6 103.2 103.8 98.5 96.5 95.4 95.4 94.4 94.9 100.8 100.5 99.0 99.3 101.7 102.1 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.4 100.5 1 00.6 106.0 1 06.1 106.2 1 06.2 106.2 1 06.6 110.5 110.5 110.8 111.1 111.1 111.3 103.6 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.6 104.1 100.4 100.6 100.8 100.9 101.0 101.3 104.7 105.0 104.6 104.3 104.2 105.0 104.0 1 04.1 104.2 1 04.3 1 04.2 104.5 PRICES: A CHARTB00K 100.7 1 00.7 1 00.6 1 00.6 100.8 1 00.8 100.2 99.7 99.2 99.0 99.4 99.7 5 CHART 7. STEEL AND DURABLES, JANUARY 1962-JUNE 1963 In d ex no- (1957-59=100) 105- •WPI-Machinery an d equipm ent W PI-Steel mill products z_ 100 - 95- ^ ^ W P I-H o u s e h o ld applian ces I 90 * J F M A M J J 1962 A I S O I I 1 I N D J I I I F M A M J 1963 A key factor in the 1963 increase in business activity has been the heavy demand for automobiles. New car sales were at record levels and automobile production in July reached an all-time high for a model year. Despite heavy sales, automobile prices — both wholesale and retail—were slightly below last year’s levels. Intensive selling efforts by the industry included granting relatively high trade-in allowances and discounts earlier in the model year than usual, as well as some slight lengthening of a v e r a g e maturities of automobile installment credit. In June 1963, the amount of automobile installment credit out standing was 13.5 percent above that of June 1962. Wholesale prices of tires turned up in late 1962 and were 3 percent higher than a year earlier in June of 1963. Automobiles. Nonferrous metals. The steady recovery in some nonferrous metals prices since last December has reflected the 1963 industrial expansion. After rising in the first few months of the economic recovery in 1961, nonferrous metals prices d r o p p e d 4 percent between September 1961 and December 1962. Since then, they have risen a little over one percent. While the largest increases have occurred in the scrap markets and for primary shapes, price increases have been recorded also for some finished prod ucts. 6 Steel. In April of this year, the steel in dustry raised prices on approximately 40 percent of their output. The direct effect of this in crease upon average prices for all steel mill products was about one p e r c e n t and was reflected in the wholesale price index for May. By June, prices for some steel-using products showed increases while others--notably house hold a p p l i a n c e s and automobiles—did not. Wholesale prices for household appliances, which due to highly competitive conditions have trended down throughout the last decade, fell slightly between April and June, led by a relatively large drop in prices for refrigerators and freezers. (See chart 7.) Overall machinery and equip ment prices in June were over 3 percent above their 1957-59 average but approximately the same as the June before. The greatest advance was in the prices of agricultural, construction, and metalworking machinery which were all ap proximately 10 percent higher than in 1957-59. However, only agricultural and construction machinery were substantially above their yearearlier levels. Machinery. Agricultural m a c h i n e r y and equipment prices have been rising each year since 1955. While the rate of increase slackened in I960, prices have not evidenced the recent stability shown by some other machinery prices but have continued to advance approximately 2 percent each year. Demand has been high as a result of the continuing efforts of farmers to raise proffits by maintaining the high rate of agricultural productivity characteristic of the entire postWorld War II period. In contrast, average prices of electrical machinery continued their downtrend of recent years. Excess capacity and lagging demand for important items were among the factors which caused p r i c e s to decline 5 percent from the October 1959 high point. Sales of electrical machinery rose only 0.5 percent between May 1962 and May 1963, compared with a 3.2 percent increase in sales of nonelectrical machinery. SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Increases in plant and equipment expend itures which are expected in the latter half of 1963, may bring a more general firming in the prices of m a c h i n e r y and equipment. For the near future, however, the continued presence of excess capacity—of both users and manufac turers of machinery and equipment—will prob ably prevent any sizeable increase in average prices for the machinery group. CHART 8. CONSTRUCTION: PRICES AND CONTRACTS, JANUARY 1962-JUNE 1963 Construction. Total new construction ex penditures in June 1963 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $63.7 billion, 1.6 per cent above that of June 1962. Housing starts, for the first half of 1963, were about 7 percent higher than in 1962, and within 2 percent of the level in the 1959 boom. Average prices of construction materials, however, were slightly below the levels of 1962 throughout the first half of 1963, although they have been rising fractionally each month since February of this year. Heavy demand for lum ber and wood materials plus s t r i k e s against West Coast producers of Douglas fir lumber and softwood plywood have been chiefly responsible for the price increase. Since February, whole sale p r i c e s for these two products have in creased 5 percent and 4 percent respectively. Offsetting this rise in the "construction mate rials" index have been price declines for con crete ingredients and p r o d u c t s , paint, and various metal products used in construction. (See chart 8.) PRICES: A CHARTBOOK Construction machinery prices, after re maining stable for over a year, began to rise in the fall of 1962 and, by June 1963, had advanced almost 2 percent. Rising expenditures for new construction and the consequent demand for new machinery created a favorable climate for such price increases. 7 USED CAR PRICES Toshiko N a k a y a m a * Prices of used cars began their latest up trend in the spring of 1961 and, reaching a peak in September 1962, continued strong in the first half of 1963. (See chart 1.) In 1962, prices averaged 9 percent above those of the year be fore and, so far this year, have been slightly higher than in 1962. Whether used car prices are likely to stay at their present high level is a question of cur rent interest. Some observers believe that, if new car sales continue at present peak rates, the resulting influx of trade-ins will boost used car inventories and result in a weakening of prices. Others see indications of a strong and *Of Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Sta tistics. persistent demand that will continue to bolster prices, particularly over the long run. The M i d - 1 9 6 3 Situation Monthly price indexes for used cars have been slightly higher in the first half of 1963 than for corresponding months in 1962, despite their December 1962-January 1963 price drop resulting largely from lagging winter sales caused by unusually severe weather. Typically, prices of used cars at mid-year are on a slight seasonal uptrend. (See chart 2.) They gener ally rise somewhat in the spring and summer with increased travel and begin to decline in the fall with the end of the summer vacation periods, the introduction of next-year car mod els, and the onset of bad weather. Used car sales by franchised dealers in 1963 have, like prices, been higher each month (except March) than in 1962. By July 10, fran chised dealers had sold over 5 million used CHART 1. FLUCTUATIONS IN USED AND NEW CAR PRICES, JANUARY 1953-JUNE 1963 8 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT cars—the largest number since 1956. These dealers, who account for about two-thirds of the used cars sold in this country, expect t o surpass last year’s sales of 8,863,000 cars. (Historically, sales reached by the end of the first week in July have represented about 55 percent of total annual s a le s .)1 Despite the record number of new cars sold, used car inventories held by franchised dealers—in terms of days of supply—were not unduly high in mid-1963, as sales of used cars have kept pace with new car sales. Recent high prices of used cars have also encouraged many owners to sell their old cars directly to buyers rather than to use them as trade-ins.2* Supplies of trade-ins have been further limited by the growing trend to keep used cars as a second or third car in a family instead of utilizing them as partial payment for a new car. Fluctuations in Used Car Prices For three years following introduction into the Consumer Price Index in January 1953, ^ prices for used cars fell and continued to do so, with only a few minor seasonal interruptions. By March 1956, prices were almost one-third below their January 1953 level. The proportion of all families owning automobiles increased from 65 percent in 1953 to 73 percent in 19564 and, as new car sales reached peak levels in 1955, the deluge of trade-ins caused a sharp drop in used car prices. Since early 1956, the basic price move ment has been upward. This general uptrend, however, was interrupted by the price drop which began in late 1959* Domestic compact cars were 1Ward’ s Automotive Reports, (weekly) July 22, 1963 (Detroit, Mich.). ^Ibid., November 5, 1962. ^For a detailed description see ’ 'Automobile Prices in the Consumer Price Index” by Louise J. Mack, Monthly Labor Review, November 1955, pp. 1269-1273. .Automobile Facts and Figures, 1961 (Automobile Man ufacturers Association, Detroit, Mich.), p. 33. PRICES: ACHARTBOOK CHART 2. MONTHLY USED CAR PRICE MOVEMENTS COMPARED, JANUARY 1961-JUNE 1963 J F M A M J J A S O N D introduced at prices that were competitive with late-model used cars, and at a time when busi ness activity was beginning to slacken. Prices fell more than one-sixth between September 1959 and March 1961, the beginning of the current used car price uptrend. Although prices of used cars are generally responsive to economic con ditions, they do not always reflect the business cycle as clearly as they did in I960 when they fell during the recession, and as they did in 1961 and 1962 when they rose in the recovery period after, the February 1961 general economic trough. The fluctuations in used car prices re flect seasonal, cyclical, and other influences. Consumer motoring and vacation habits, weather conditions, and introduction of new car models affect the seasonal pattern. The supply of trade-ins, the level of new car inventories, gen eral economic conditions, and the availability of credit are major short-run determinants of used car prices. Among important long-term in fluences are changing consumer preferences, growth in population, development of the subburbs, and rising income levels. In almost every instance, the same factors affect new car prices—though not necessarily the same way— for the used and new car markets are inextrica bly interdependent. 9 Trade-ins. Used as partial payment by about 80 percent of all new car buyers, tradeins are the chief s o u r c e of used car supply. When trade-ins flooded the market due to record new car sales in 1955, prices of used cars reached their lowest level in the postwar period in March 1956. As new car sales declined drastically in the next 2 years and thus lowered the supply of trade-ins, used car prices rose. (See chart 16 in Chart Section.) Both the availability of of credit and the specific credit terms offered have influenced automobile sales and prices.5 Although the majority of used car purchasers generally cannot afford new cars, a substantial group of automobile buyers switch back and forth between new and used cars. For some, this decision is determined by the credit terms available for used cars compared to those for new ones. Use of Credit. The tremendous gain in new car sales in 1955 resulted, in part, from a marked easing of installment financing t e r ms on new car pur chases. Maturities on new automobile paper gen erally were lengthened to 36 months, and the down p a y m e n t required tended to be lower. Credit terms on used cars were not eased as much as for new cars until after 1956. Fin ancing for late-model used cars was lengthened to more than 24 months as used car prices began their upswing. Thirty-month contracts on latemodel used cars increased rapidly between 1956 and 1959, and 36-month maturities were intro duced. Credit terms were tightened in I960 when prices of used cars fell, but they became easier again in 1961, and the number of 30-month or longer maturities grew.6 cars and late-model used cars,7 a prospective used car buyer is generally willing, in prosper ous times, to go a little further into debt to buy a new car. On the other hand, in the recession years of 1954, 1958, and I960, used car sales were proportionately better than the sales of new cars as buyers held back from incurring addi tional debts. (See chart 3.) Scrappage. The rate of scrappage ofolder cars is a factor, which, on the whole, tends to strengthen used car prices by reducing supplies. The average age of cars on the road declined from 7.8 years in 1950 to 5.5 years in 1957 with the great gains in number of new cars sold in the mid-1950*s. In 1962, the average age was 6 years.8 At the end of 1962, there were 9.1 million cars over 10 years of age on the road, almost 50 percent more than the 6.4 million in 1959. As a result, the scrappage rate in 1963 is expected to be higher than the 4.5 million annual average of recent years.9 7Average monthly retail time payment in 1962 was $86 for new and $58 for used cars. Ward’ s Automotive R e ports, (weekly) May 27, 1963, and “ Used Cars: SecondHand Siren,” op. cit. o Automobile Facts and Figures, 1963, p. 9. ^Automobile Facts and Figures, 1962, p. 20; and 1963, pp. 9 and 22. CHART 3. RATIO OF USED CAR PURCHASERS TO NEW CAR PURCHASERS, ANNUAL AVERAGES, 1953-61 Because of the relatively small difference between the monthly payment required for new 5,<Used Cars: Second-Hand Sirens,” in B usiness R e view, April 1959, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and “ Consumer Credit R ise,” Federal R eserve Bulletin, June 1962, p. 686. 6Ibid., p. 687. 10 for FRASER Digitized SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Inventories. Fluctuations in new car in ventories also affect used car prices. Invento ries of new cars held by franchised dealers have tended to increase during the latter part of most business expansions when diminishing demand failed to keep pace with new car out put . A dealer, under pressure to unload overstocked new cars, is then apt to over-allow extensively on trade-ins which must then be sold at a loss in the used car market. In the last few years, however, inventories of new cars have fluctuated l e s s than in the past, partly because of the absence of major work stoppages and, partly, because of the more important role inventory controls are playing in the planning of automobile production. This has resulted in less d i s r u p t i o n to used car prices since dealers have fewer carryovers of new cars they are forced to liquidate before the model changes. A very low rate of carryover is expected at the end of the 1963 model year as tighter inventory controls are assisted by record new car sales. C h a n g in g Buying Patterns Growing resistance by consumers to higher prices of new cars as well as more than usual concern a b o u t the size, style, and design of available models became increasingly apparent after 1956. New car prices increased consider ably each year b e t w e e n 1956 and 1959 with higher labor and materials costs, changes in automobile size and power, and additional equip ment such as automatic transmissions and power steering. Despite higher trade-in allowances, final outlays for new cars increased. A growing number of consumers began to shift their pur chases to used cars and to imported automo biles. To compete with the small and lower-priced foreign automobiles, which often were also more economical to operate, major domestic produc ers brought out their compact cars in late 1959 with the introduction of I960 models.10 Be cause of the small price differential between late-model used cars and the new compacts, A CHARTBOOK PRICES: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 698-317 0 - 63-3 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis which had the advantage of a new car guarantee for parts and service, many consumers began to prefer compacts, and prices of used cars fell substantially. Long-Term Stre ngt h The rapid rise in multicar households which accompanied the population shift to the suburbs significantly enlarged the demand for used cars. In the 8 years between 1954 and 1962, the num ber of multicar households increased 90 per ce n t.11 This rapid growth accounts for not only the greater demand for used cars but also for much of the interest in foreign cars and com pacts. As incomes continue to rise, the number of multicar families is expected to grow at an accelerated pace. Our population expansion may have an even greater impact on used car demand in the future than in the past. Babies born during the years immediately following the end of World War II are now reaching the driving age. With limited incomes, and great interest in cars, teenagers are excellent prospects for used car sales. In general, used car buyers are in the lower age and income groups. In addition, automobile travel-one of the Nation’s favorite pastimes—has jumped 45 per cent in the last 10 years to 629 billion vehicles miles a year.12* This, too, is expected to grow with increased leisure time, rising income, and the major road construction programs currently underway. The number of passenger cars registered—both new and used—increased from 46 to 66 million between 1953 and 1962.15 10For a discussion of pricing compact cars, s e e MCompact C^rs in the Consumer Price Index,” Technical Note, by Olga A. Larsgaard and Louise J. Mack, Monthly Labor Review, May 1961, pp. 519-23. 11 Automobile F a cts and Figures, 1963, p. 39. 12U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Public Roads. Unpublished estimate. 13 JAutomobile Facts and Figures, 1963, p. 18. 11 As a result, overall demand for automo biles, both new and used, is expected to con tinue upward. In such a complex market as that which exists for used cars, a certain amount of price fluctuation is to be anticipated, particu Digitized 12 for FRASER larly in the short-run. However, if the market for used cars expands as anticipated, current indi cations are that this increasing demand will supply an underlying strength to used car prices over the long run. SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT M EASURING CHANGES IN THE GENERAL PRICE LEVEL G e o f f r e y P. F a u x * In early 1963, the Gross National Product Implicit Price Deflator was 6 percent higher than in 1958, the Consumer Price Index was 5 per cent higher, and the Wholesale Price Index was at the same level as in 1958. Such differences in behavior among the three most wi d e l y used measures of change in the general price level are not limited to this recent period. Between 1951 and 1955, for example, the GNP Implicit Deflator rose 5-2 p e r c e n t and the Consumer Price Index, 3»1 percent, while the Wholesale Price Index fell. Over the last 16 years, the Implicit Deflator has shown the greatest upward movement. (See chart 1.) The varying trends of these three price measures result from basic conceptual differ *Of Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Sta tistics. ences. Because of these differences, each ex cludes sectors of the e c o n o m y from its uni verse, even though they may be important in the analysis of general price trends. Both the Con sumer and Wholesale Price Indexes are inde pendently derived measures of p r i c e change specifically designed for that purpose. On the other hand, the GNP Implicit Deflator is a by product of Gross National Product, adjusted for price change (with a variety of price indexes and other data) in order to determine changes in real output. Although differences in methods of con struction and weighting play a part, trend vari ations are primarily due to the price universe of each measure. The user, therefore, should be clear as to how these measures define the "general price level” before analyzing their movements. Does he wish to measure changes in the average price of goods and services for private consumption? C h a n g e s in average prices of current final output? Changes in av erage prices of goods sold by producers in the network of transactions throughout the produc tion process? CHART 1. TRENDS OF THE THREE GENERAL PRICE MEASURES, SINCE 1947 PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 13 CHARACTERISTICS OF THREE GENERAL PRICE INDEXES Consum er P rice Ind ex C h a ra cteristic Coverage G o o d s and s e r v i c e s p u r c h a s e d by f a m i l i e s of u rban w a g e e a r n e r s and s a la r ie d c le r ic a l workers. In c o m e t a x e s , e x i s t i n g M ajor exclu sio n s P rice co lle ctio n W e ig htin g a s s e t s , s e c u r i t i e s , goods p u r c h a s e d s o l e l y by rural f a m i l i e s or t h o s e w ith v e ry h ig h i n c o m e s , c o n s u m p tio n i t e m s for w h ic h th e re i s no d i r e c t p a y m e n t. W holesale P ric e Index G N P I m p l ic i t P r ic e D efla to r A n n u al G r o s s N a t i o n a l C o m m o d itie s s o l d in primary m a rk e ts in th e U . S . P r o d u c t , i . e . , v a l u e of t o t a l a n n u a l output of U . S . in in c lu d in g im p o r ts , e x p o r t s f i n a l m ark e t p r i c e s . (up to th e p o in t of d e p a r ture from d o m e s t i c m a rk e t) , and g o o d s at v a r io u s s t a g e s of p r o c e s s i n g . T ran sp o rtation , re a l e s E x istin g a s s e t s , se c u ri t a t e , s e r v i c e s , e x i s t i n g a s t i e s , prim ary and i n t e r m e d i s e t s , s e c u r i t ie s , goods sold a te goods and s e r v i c e s c o n sum ed in p r o d u c t io n . only to g o v ern m e n t, go o d s s o l d a t r e t a i l by p r o d u c e r s . S a m p le of 3 0 0 ite m s c o l l e c t e d in 4 6 c i t i e s by t r a i n e d i n t e r v i e w e r s u s in g p re cise sp e cifica tio n . S am p le of 2 , 2 0 0 it e m s c o l l e c t e d by m a ile d s c h e d ule from s e l l e r . D e t a i l e d s p e c i f i c a t i o n s for i t e m s . No d i r e c t p r i c e c o l l e c tio n . C om ponents a d ju ste d w ith a v a r i e t y of i n d e x e s ( i n c l u d in g t h e C P I and W P I) and d a ta from s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s ; government a g e n c i e s , trad e a s s o c i a t i o n s , c a t a l o g s . Many p r i c e s i n pu ted w ith q u a n t i t y and c o s t d ata. F ix e d w eights re fle c tin g a v e r a g e c o n s u m e r pu r c h a s e s . C u rre n t in d e x b a s e d upon 1 9 5 0 S u r v e y of C onsum er E xp en d itu res. F ix e d w eights r e fle c t in g p r o d u c e r s ’ s h i p m e n t s . C u r re n t w e i g h t s d e r iv e d from 1 9 5 8 and 1 9 5 9 e c o n o m ic censuses. W e ig h t s r e f l e c t i n g a l l o c a t i o n of c u r r e n t ou tpu t. C h a n g e from y e a r - t o - y e a r and th u s i n f l u e n c e i n d e x b e h a v io r . S e a so n a lly a d ju s t e d No Yes 1957-59= 100 1957-59= 100 1954=100 Monthly Monthly Q u a rt e r ly No P u b lish ed b a s e period P u b lica tio n frequency P u b lish ed d etail A ctual p rices available M o n th ly : Major g ro ups and s u b - g r o u p s , food and f u e l i t e m s for U . S . and selected c itie s. Q u a r t e r l y : I n d iv id u a l item s. F o o d and f u e l p r i c e s Digitized 14 for FRASER M o nthly: A l l gro ups and i n d iv id u a l i t e m s . S e l e c t e d c o m m o d it ie s Q u a r t e r ly : M ajor c o m p o n e n t s and g r o u p s . A n n u a l ly : s e l e c t e d s u b g ro u p s . None SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Despite differences among the overall measures, the trends of their components are necessarily often similar. The wide economic sectors reflected by the general measures over lap, and a substantial number of CPI and WPI components are used to deflate the GNP. Coverage The Consumer Price Index, the most nar rowly defined of the three, was developed to measure price changes for a "market basket” of goods and services which reflects average ex penditures of urban workers’ families. Although not intended to represent changes in prices paid by other population groups—rural families, el derly couples, or single individuals—it may re flect these changes to the e x t e n t that their expenditure patterns are s i m i l a r to those of urban workers’ families. (See summary table.) While the CPI measures final retail price to the consumer, the Wholesale Price Index rep resents prices at the primary market level. The universe of the WPI includes the first important commercial transaction for almost all commodi ties sold in the United States. The index does not cover service, real e s t a t e , and security prices. In addition, goods produced solely for government and those sold directly at retail by the producers are excluded. Goods are priced for the Wholesale Price Index at all stages of processing. Thus, prices for iron ore, finished steel, and automobiles are all included in the index and weighted accord ing to their relative individual value in the uni verse of primary m a r k e t transactions. As a result of this "vertical” coverage, the compo nents of the index can be rearranged into a vari ety of subindexes representing price movements at various production levels of the economy.1 The Implicit Price Deflator—like the Gross National P r o d u c t from which it is derivedcovers to.tal annual output of the national econ ^ e c a u s e the weights are based upon the relative val ues of individual items at all stages of production, the weights of goods consumed in production are duplicated in the weight of the finished commodity. Thus, this index does not identify value added by industry. PRICES: A CHARTBOOK omy. "Horizontally”, therefore, its scope is significantly broader than that of either the Con sumer or Wholesale Price Index. However, be cause GNP is a measure of value of final out put, the Implicit Deflator r e p r e s e n t s price change to the ultimate buyer. Only to the extent that price fluctuations for crude and interme diate materials are transmitted to the last mar ket will they be- reflected in the Implicit De flator. I n d e x Construction Both the Consumer and Wholesale Price Indexes are intended to measure cdirectly changes in prices of identical or comparable items over time. They are constructed from price data ob tained, for the most part, by field agents (CPI) or from schedules mailed by the seller (WPI). Items to be priced are described in detailed specifications so that changes in the index from one period to another will, as much as possible, reflect p r i c e r a t h e r than product changes. The GNP Implicit Deflator is the result of deflating GNP aggregates to constant dollars in order to measure real output. Computation of the Deflator is not based upon a direct price collection program; the detailed components of current dollar Gross National Product are ad justed to 1954 dollars with a variety of price indexes from many different sources. Compo nent indexes of both the CPI and WPI are used in substantial number. (The CPI is the chief source of price data for the deflation of Per sonal Consumption Expenditures, while WPI item indexes are used in several GNP compo nents.) When price information is not available, cost and quantity data are utilized. The U.S. Department of Commerce, which publishes the Implicit Deflator, is necessarily dependent upon outside sources—both public and private—for its deflation data. As these statistical series generally have been c o l l e c t e d for purposes other than the deflation of the GNP, and since adequate price data are not available for some sectors, the quality of the individual item defla tors is uneven. 15 The sum of the deflated expenditures is GNP in constant dollars. The GNP Deflator is the quotient of constant divided into current dol lar aggregates and, thus, is "implicit” in the deflation process. W eighting The varying purposes for which the three general price measures were developed lead to important differences in their weighting struc tures. The WPI and CPI measure price changes of a specific group of commodities or services— in fixed proportion—between any two periods. While these fixed proportions, or weights, are revised periodically to maintain correspondence with current demand patterns, they do notchange with each pricing period. The current CPI car ries weights derived from the 1950 BLS Survey of Consumer Expenditures in which consumers were interviewed concerning their purchases of CHART 2. RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF PRICE VERSUS CONSUMPTION CHANGES TO INCREASE IN SERVICE SHARE OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, 1952-62 goods and services. (A new survey was con ducted in 1960-61 and a revised index will be i n t r o d u c e d in early 1964.) The present WPI weights were developed from the 1958 and 1959 Economic Censuses. In describing changes from the base year (1954) to any other year, the Implicit Deflator, like the CPI and WPI, measures average price movements. However, derived from the defla tion of current output, the I m p l i c i t Deflator always reflects the current proportions in which items are produced. Since these proportions are constantly changing, comparisons between the Implicit Deflator for years other than 1954 will reflect the shifting pattern of output as well as price change. In the absence of abrupt shifts in composition of output, the resultant distor tion can be overlooked for most short-run analy sis. The impact of the different w e i gh t i n g structures becomes evident when comparing the significance of changes in the relative impor tance of items. Between any two periods, a change in the relative importance of an item in the CPI or WPI reflects its price change rela tive to changes in the prices of other items. For example, the rise in the relative importance of services in the CPI from 33 percent in December, 1952, to 37 percent in December, 1962, was the result of a 28 percent rise in consumer service prices versus a 7 percent rise in average prices of commodities.2 In contrast, the Implicit Deflator reflects changes in the importance of an item in GNP and thus represents the influence of both price change and changes in the relative amount con sumers are buying. Therefore, the increase in services as a portion of the Personal Consump tion Expenditures component of GNP (current dollars) from 34 to 41 percent between 1952 and 1962 represents not only the 25 percent change in the Implicit Deflator for Services (as com- Importance x Price change December 1952 December 1952-Decem (percent) Services Commodities All Items 33 67 100 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis x x 128 107 114 r 1962 = = Column (1) Relative x Importance Column (2) December 1962 42 72 114 37 63 100 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT pared with an 8 percent rise in the Deflator for all other Personal Consumption Expenditures) but also the increase in real expenditures for services from 36 to 39 percent of the total. (See chart 2.) The W h o le s a l e Price I n d e x a n d the G N P Implicit D ef la to r The inclusion of three major sectors of additional coverage in the GNP Implicit Deflator —government purchases, services, and com pleted construction5 —has been the chief cause of the steady uptrend of the GNP Implicit Defla tor as compared to the WPI. Since 1947, the Implicit Deflator for the three areas together has risen 59 percent as opposed to a 26 per cent rise for private goods (total GNP less gov ernment purchases, services, and construction).2*4 When these differences in coverage are elimi nated, the movements of the two indexes are similar, as is shown in the comparison of the WPI for finished goods with the Deflator for private goods. (See chart 3.) While the GNP Implicit Deflator is con siderably broader in scope than the WPI, weak nesses in the deflation data seriously limit the accuracy of the Implicit Deflator for the sectors of additional coverage. These limitations in volve failure to separate price change reflecting market conditions from those reflecting changes in the quality of the product. Although the prob lem is present in all price index construction, adjustment for such changes are especially dif ficult for government purchases, services, and construction. In the consumer area, for example, changes in the quality of services generally, particular ly medical care services, have resisted system atic measurement within the framework of price 2 JOnly construction materials are represented in the WPI. ^Although these three GNP sectors overlap (for ex ample, government purchases include services and con struction as well as commodities) the data are presented in such a way as to permit the figures for the three sec tors to be totaled without double counting. See Survey of Current B usiness, National Income Number, July 1963, and previous July issues. CHART 3. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX AND GNP IMPLICIT DEFLATOR SECTORS, SINCE 1947 PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 17 index construction.5 This applies to the Im plicit Deflator as well as to the service s e c tor of the CPI from which most of the item de flators are obtained. Similar difficulties exist in measuring government purchases of goods. Many of these, such as m i l i t a r y and space items, are uniquely governmental in nature. They are often custom-made and, because little is known about their specifications, it is diffi cult to obtain prices of comparable items from period to period. For both new c o n s t r u c t i o n and most government purchases of services, the quality problem relates primarily to production factors. The deflation of current dollar expenditures for most new construction is accomplished with in dexes of labor and material costs and adjust ments for profit margins. Inadequate allow ance is made for productivity changes. Govern ment expenditures for services are composed ^For discussions, see: Ethel D. Hoover, ’’The CPI and Problems of Quality Change ," Monthly Labor Review, November 1961, pp. 1175-1185; Milton Gilbert, ’ ’The Problem of Quality Changes andlndex Numbers,” Monthly Labor Review, September 1961, pp. 992-997; and a cri tique of Mr. Gilbert’s a r t i c l e by Zvi Griliches and Mr. Gilbert’s reply, Monthly Labor Review, May 1962, pp.542-545. largely of employee compensation. Indexes of man-hours worked are used to deflate these ex penditures and, to an even greater extent than in the construction sector, the Deflator fails to reflect productivity gains. While the absence of market value for most of government output precludes the measurement of true price and productivity changes, available evidence sug gests that improvement in the efficiency of many government operations has been considerable.6 Since it is more d i f f i c u l t to make ade quate allowances for quality improvements in government purchases, services, and construc tion than in other GNP sectors, the Implicit De flator for these components has a greater ten dency, particularly during periods of economic growth, to overstate the a mo u n t of price in crease. The upward bias, resulting from the nature of the concepts of output and the lack of ^For examples of efficiency change, see: Impact of Office Automation in the Internal Revenue Service (BLS Bulletin 1364, 1963); Henry Lytton, ’ ’Recent Productiv ity Trends in the Federal Government: An Explanatory Study,” Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1959; and U.S. House of Representatives, House Com mittee on Post Office and Civil Service, 87th Cong., 2nd Sess., Use of Electronic Data Processing Equipment., CHART 4. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND IMPLICIT DEFLATOR FDR PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SINCE 1947 18 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT adequate price data, m a k e s the Implicit De flator least r e l i a b l e as a measure of price change in these three sectors, although it is the only general statistic which attempts to measure all of them. The CPI a n d the Implicit D e f l a t o r for CPI and PCE Deflator h a v e followed each other closely since 1947, and, in early 1963, were both 6 percent above their 1957-59 aver age. (See chart 4.) Much of the similarity is due to the deflation of the major portion of Per sonal Consumption Expenditures with CPI com ponents. P e r so n a l Consumption Ex pe nd it ur es Although the Consumer Price Index and the GNP Deflator for Personal Consumption Ex penditures both measure price change in the consumer sector of the economy, the coverage of the two series differs significantly. Since the CPI relates to a v e r a g e expenditures of urban workers’ families within definite income ranges, certain items—luxury goods, foreign travel, farm house rental—are excluded from its coverage. Moveover, some items are excluded from the CPI because they are not sold in retail markets but are given a value in Personal Con sumption Expenditures as they represent a claim upon resources (for example, expense of han dling life insurance and services furnished free by financial intermediaries). Despite differences in c o v e r a g e , the One area for which coverage in the two indexes is radically different is housing. Home purchase in the CPI is treated as a consump tion item and, for any given year, represents current purchase prices. In the GNP accounts, home construction (current output) rather than home purchase is reflected and these expendi tures are placed in the investment sector. A rental value is i mp u t e d for owner-occupied homes and counted, along with rent paid by tenants, as part of Personal Consumption Ex penditures. The coverage of rent is also dis similar, chiefly in that the CPI reflects contract rent or actual rent paid while the Deflator re flects space rent (excluding utilities and fuel) only. In addition, Personal Consumption Ex penditures for housing includes space rent for farmhouses and rural dwellings as well as all CHART 5. GNP IMPLICIT DEFLATOR AND CPI FOR AUTOS AND PARTS, SINCE 1953 A CHARTBOOK PRICES: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 698-317 0 - 63-4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 spending for hotels, tourist homes, and other miscellaneous housing. In the CPI, rural hous ing is specifically excluded and the miscel laneous category represented only in proportion to its importance in total expenditures by urban workers’ families. The influence of conceptual differences upon the trends of the PCE Implicit Deflator and the CPI can be clearly seen in their auto motive components. A comparison of the PCE Implicit Deflator for automobiles and parts7 with a special index covering the same class of durables in the CPI (new cars, used cars, and tires)8 s h o w s that the CPI components have fluctuated more sharply. In 1962, the CPI was at a 10-year high while the PCE Implicit Deflator was at the same level as in 1957-59The different treatment given to used cars in the price measures has been a major cause of variations in their behavior and illustrates the effect of the underlying concepts. (See chart 5.) Since GNP is a measure of the value of annual output, total used car values are not in cluded in Personal Consumption Expenditures. Only that part of used car sales that represents current demand for resources (i.e., gross mar gins of sellers) are a part of the GNP aggre gates. The CPI, however, represents the whole range of consumer purchases and thus includes used car values in proportion to the amount con sumers buy. Used car prices, therefore, have a much greater weight in the Consumer Price Index than they do in Personal Consumption Expenditures and, because of their fluctuations, have greater influence upon the CPI than upon the PCE Implicit Deflator. Price In d e x e s as Cyclical In dic at or s The three overall measures of the general price level neither forecast nor adequately re- Deflators for Personal Consumption Expenditures for durables are available for only two components: "auto mobiles and parts” and "other durables.” O °This special index was computed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the techniques described in "R e la tive Importance of CPI Items,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1954, pp. 891-6. The article outlines the proce dure for recombining CPI items into special indexes. 20 for FRASER Digitized fleet business cycle trends. The absence of primary markets from the coverage of the GNP Implicit Deflator and the inclusion of services and government tend to make the Deflator insen sitive to short-run changes in economic condi tions. The Consumer Price Index, like the Deflator, reflects the relatively rigid final mar ket prices and includes the insensitive service sector. On the other hand, the Wholesale Price Index includes so many diverse products and levels of processing that price movements by cyclically responsive items are often offset by opposite movements in markets—such as for farm products—relatively unrelated to the busi ness cycle. Selected industrial components of the WPI are, however, extremely useful as indicators of individual market conditions and, when aggre gated into special groupings, such as the index for crude nonfood materials, have often accu rately reflected the movements of the business cycle. The price index most satisfactory as an advance economic indicator has been the Spot Market Index for raw industrials. (The Spot Market Index, computed independently of the WPI, is based upon daily prices for 22 basic commodities; the raw i n d u s t r i a 1 component covers 13 crude materials.) Until mid-196l, this index was a reasonably reliable guide to the business cycle but, in the last two years, weak metal prices have given a deflationary character to the index in the face of expanding industrial production. Conclusion Since the analysis of price change is a vital part of public and private economic think ing, it is important that the basic differences among the three general price measures be un derstood, and their effects upon the behavior of the indexes recognized. Conceptual differ ences result in variations in both weighting structure and in the nature of what the measures describe. The WPI and CPI are designed to measure price change only, while the Implicit Deflator—when used as a series—reflects, in addition, changes in composition of output. SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT In terms of total output, the GNP Implicit Deflator has the widest coverage although, in the areas of additional coverage, it is less re liable. On the other hand, the WPI which repre sents producers’ sales of commodities, is a better indicator of changes in total cost (includ ing profit margin) of goods p r o d u c t i o n . To e s t i m a t e the effects of price change upon consumer purchasing power, however, one must turn to the CPI. Thus, there is no completely satisfactory single measure of all price changes in the econ omy. The CPI, WPI, and GNP Implicit Price Deflator represent price change in specific, although overlapping, sectors. Used with some understanding of their basic differences, each can be a valuable tool in the analysis of prices and economic conditions. References The following publications contain detailed descriptions of the concepts and method ology of the Consumer and Wholesale Price Indexes and the GNP Implicit Deflator. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: T he Co n s u me r P r i c e Index, A Short De sc r i p t i on . January 1959- C o n su me r P r i c e s in the United States 1953-58, P r i c e T r e n d s and I n d e x e s , BLS Bulletin 1256, 1959. Wholesale P r i c e s and P r i ce I n d e x e s 1 95 9 , BLS Bulletin No. 1295, June 1961. " Wh ol e s al e P r ic e I n d e x , " Reprint of Chapter 10, from BLS Bulletin 1168, T e c h n i q u e s of Preparing Major B L S Stati st ic al S e r i e s , 1954. U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics: National Income, 1954 Edition, A Suppl ement to the Survey of Current B u s i n e s s , 1954. U.S. Income and Output, A Suppl ement to the Survey o f Current B u s i n e s s , November 1958. A CHARTB00K PRICES: 21 CHART SECTION PRICES A N D E C O N O M IC RELATED T R E N D S R E L A T I V E I M P O R T A N C E - D E C E M B E R 1962 CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X R E L A T I V E I M P O R T A N C E - D E C E M B E R 1962 TRENDS 1. W h o l e s a l e and c o n s u m e r p r i c e i n d e x e s , by m a jo r s e c t o r , s i n c e 1 9 5 9 2. B u sin ess cy cle: 3. B u s i n e s s c y c l e : W h o l e s a l e p r i c e s of d u rab le m a n u f a c t u r e s from trough to p e a k o f th r e e 4. B u sin ess c y cle : C o n s u m e r p r i c e s and ke y i n d i c a t o r s s i n c e th e F e b r u a r y 19 6 1 trough 5. B u sin ess cy cle: C o n s u m e r p r i c e s of d u rab le c o m m o d i t ie s from*trough to p e a k of t h r e e c y c l e s 6. I n d u s tria l c o m m o d i t ie s : I n d u s tr ia l p r i c e s and ke y i n d i c a t o r s s i n c e th e F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 1 trough cy cles W h o l e s a l e and c o n s u m e r p r i c e s and i n d u s t r i a l p ro d u ctio n o f c o n s u m e r goods, s in c e 1953 7. N ond u rable c o m m o d i t ie s ( e x c e p t fo o d ): W h o l e s a l e and c o n s u m e r p r i c e s and p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p tion e x p e n d i t u r e s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 8. D u r a b le c o m m o d i t ie s : P e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n e x p e n d i t u r e s , c o n s u m e r p r i c e s , and w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s o f raw d u r a b l e s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 9. W h o l e s a l e p r i c e s and o utput o f c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s , and e x p e n d i t u r e s fo r n ew c o n s t r u c t i o n put in p l a c e , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 10. M o rtgage i n t e r e s t r a t e s , and p r i v a t e nonfarm d w e ll i n g u n it s s t a r t e d , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 11. R e n t , and d w e ll i n g u n it s s t a r t e d in 2-or-m ore fam ily s t r u c t u r e s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 12. Iron and s t e e l : 13. C o n s u m e r p r i c e s o f d u r a b l e s , and w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s o f raw and m an u fa c tu re d d u r a b l e s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 14. A u t o m o b il e s : P r o d u c t i o n , new o r d e rs , hourly e a r n i n g s , and w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 C o n s u m e r p r i c e s o f new c a r s and w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s o f f i n i s h e d s t e e l p r o d u c t s , sin c e 1953 15. New c a r s : 16. A u t o m o b il e s : D e a l e r s ’ i n v e n t o r i e s , a s s e m b l i e s , and w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 C o n s u m e r p r i c e s o f u s e d c a r s and f a c t o r y s a l e s o f ne w c a r s , s i n c e 1 9 5 3 FARM AND FOOD PRICES: WHOLESALE AND CONSUMER, SINCE 1953 17. C o m p a ris o n of r e c e n t farm and food p r i c e s with t h e ir s e a s o n a l tre n d s 18. C P I: F o o d a t ho m e, and food aw ay from home 19. C P I: M e a t s , p o u ltry , and f i s h 20. C P I: B e e f and v e a l , and pork 21. WPI: A ll farm p r o d u c t s , and l i v e s t o c k 22. W PI: A ll p r o c e s s e d f o o d s , and m e a t s 23. W PI: F r e s h f r u i t s , and c a n n e d fru its and j u i c e s 24. WPI: F r e s h and dried v e g e t a b l e s , and c a n n e d v e g e t a b l e s and s o u p s 25. WPI: S t e e r s , and h o g s 26. WPI: G r a i n s , and m an u fa c tu re d a n im a l f e e d s 27. WPI: Wheat, c o r n , and c e r e a l and b akery p ro d u c ts 28. M eat c y c l e : 29. A n nual s u p p ly , p e r c a p i t a c o n s u m p tio n , and c o n s u m e r p r i c e s o f b e e f and m ilk W h o l e s a l e p r i c e s of s t e e r s , c o n s u m e r p r i c e s o f b e e f , and c a t t l e m a r k e tin g s 30. M eat c y c l e : 31. A n nual su p p ly , p e r c a p i t a co n s u m p tio n , and c o n s u m e r p r i c e s fo r pork W h o l e s a l e p r i c e s of h o g s , c o n s u m e r p r i c e s o f pork , and h o g m a r k e tin g s WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, SINCE 1953 32. M ajo r gro u p s: M a c h in e ry and motor v e h i c l e s , m e t a l s , and f u e l and po w er 33. M ajor g ro u p s : T e x t i l e s and a p p a r e l , h i d e s and l e a t h e r , and t o b a c c o and b o t t l e d b e v e r a g e s 34. M ajor g ro u p s: C h e m i c a l s , n o n m e t a l l i c m in e ra l p r o d u c t s , and ru bb er 35. M ajor g ro u p s: P a p e r and p r o d u c t s , fu rn iture and h o u s e h o ld d u r a b l e s , and lumber and wood p ro d u cts 36o R u b b e r: 37. A ll m ac h in e ry and e q u ip m en t, and a l l motor v e h i c l e s N a tu ra l, s y n t h e t i c , and t i r e s RICES: A CHARTBOOK L IS T O F C H A R T S — Continued 38. Motor tr u c k s , p a s s e n g e r c a r s , and t r a c t o r s 39. H i d e s and s k i n s , l e a t h e r , and fo o tw e a r 40. In d u s tria l c h e m i c a l s , and drugs and p h a r m a c e u t i c a l s 41. In d u s t r i a l c h e m i c a l s : 42. P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s , and p a in t m a t e r i a l s O r g a n i c and i n o r g a n ic CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, SINCE 1953 43. A l l item s 44. A ll s e r v i c e s and c o m m o d i t ie s 45. F o o d and n o n d u rab le c o m m o d i t ie s l e s s food 46. N o n d u ra b le s l e s s fo od, d u r a b l e s , and d u r a b l e s l e s s c a r s 47. D u rables: 48. A p p a re l, and a l l n o n d u r a b le s l e s s food and a p p arel New c a r s , a p p l i a n c e s , and fu rn iture and b ed d ing 49. N ondurables: 50. M ajor g ro u p s : G a s o l i n e , t o i l e t g o o d s , t o b a c c o p r o d u c t s , and a l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s F o o d , h o u s i n g , and t ra n s p o rta tio n 51. M ajo r g ro u p s : A p p a re l, m e d i c a l c a r e , r e a d in g and r e c r e a t i o n , and p e r s o n a l c a r e 52. A ll h o u s in g , h o u s e h o ld o p e r a t io n , and h o u s e f u m i s h i n g s 53. S e l e c t e d hom e-o w n er c o s t s : F i r s t m o rtgage i n t e r e s t r a t e s , property i n s u r a n c e r a t e s , and hom e m a i n t e n a n c e and r e p a i r s 54. A ll a p p a r e l , and f o o tw e a r 55. M e n ’ s and b o y s ’ a p p a r e l , and w o m e n ’s and g i r l s ’ a p p a r e l 56. A p p a re l, by t y p e o f f a b r i c : 57. Serv ices: 58. M e d ic a l c a r e s e r v i c e s : fees 26 C o t t o n , man-made f i b e r s , and wo ol T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , m e d ic a l c a r e , h o u s e h o ld o p e r a t io n , and r e n t H o s p i t a l i z a t i o n i n s u r a n c e , h o s p i t a l r a t e s , p h y s i c i a n s ’ and d e n t i s t s ’ SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT CH A RT Is W H O LESALE AND CONSUM ER P R IC E IN D E X E S NOTE: All tables referred to in the charts are contained in B L S Bulletin No. 1351, Prices, A Chartbook, 1953- 62. Current data are given in tables at back of this volume. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis C H A R T 2: IN D U ST R IA L P R IC E S AND K E Y IN D IC A T O R S SIN C E THE F E B R U A R Y 1961 TROUGH C H A R T 3: W H O LESALE P R IC E S OF D U R A B L E M A N U F A C T U R E S FROM TROUGH TO P E A K OF T H R E E BU SIN ESS C Y C L E S 28FRASER Digitized for SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT O U ^ IIN < ^ Y < ^ L .tL C H A R T 4: CONSUM ER P R IC E S AND K E Y IN D IC A T O R S SIN C E TH E F E B R U A R Y 1961 TROUGH INDEX INDEX (February 1961=100) ^Seasonally adjusted 130— — 130 125 — — 125 120- Installment credit extended — Disposable personal income 120 ■115 —110 Consumer expenditures — 105 August, 1954 to July, \9 5 1 ^ I I II M i l | I I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 !I 5 I 6 !I 7 I 8 I 9 I 10 PRICES: A CHARTB00K 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 15 1 16 1 17 M O N T H S FR O M TRO U G H 29 I IN U U C H A R T 6: I K IA L U U IV 1IV 1U U I I It- O W H O LESALE AND CONSUM ER P R IC E S OF IN D U ST R IA L COMMODITIES, AND IN D U ST R IA L PR O D U C T IO N OF CONSUMER GOODS CONSTRUCTION AND HOUSING 31 U U K A BLtb C H A R T 12s IRON AND S T E E L : PRODUCTION , NEW O RD ERS, H O U R LY EARN IN G S, AN D W H O LESALE P R IC E S C H A R T 13: CONSUMER P R IC E S OF D U R A B LE S, AND W H OLESALE P R IC E S OF RAW AND 32 MANUFACTURED DURABLES SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT CHART 14: CONSUMER P R IC E S OF NEW C A R S AND W H O LESALE P R IC E S OF F IN ISH E D S T E E L PR O D U C T S PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 33 o tA oC JN A L C H A R T 17: COMPARISON OF R E C E N T P R IC E S WITH T H E IR SEASO N A L T R E N D S* CPI: 110- 90 1963 WPI: EGGS CPI: FRESH FRUITS Seasonal 1963 1961 120 1962 1962 1963 80Tables: D—50, C—16 *The seasonal trends relate to the year 1960 and are based on a five-year weighted average which, for the C P I, includes data through November 1961 and for the WPI, includes data through June 1961. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Reduced seal*) (1957-59=100) C H A R T 18: FOOD AT HOME, AMD FOOD AWAY FROM HOME http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ PRICES: A CHARTBOOK Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis C H A R T 19: MEATS, PO U LT R Y AND FISH 35 PROCESSED FO O DS (1957-59=100) (Reduced scale) C H A R T 21: A L L FARM PR O D U C T S,AN D L IV E S T O C K C H A RT 22: A L L P R O C E SSE D FOODS,AND M EA TS C H A R T 23: FRESH FR U IT S,A N D C A N N E D FR U IT S AND JU IC E S C H A R T 24: FRESH AND D R IE D V E G E T A B L E S , AND C A N N E D V E G E T A B L E S AND S O U P S , Digitized 36for FRASER SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT PR O C ESSED FOODS (Reduced scale) (1957-59=100) C H A R T 25: S T E E R S,A N D HOGS C H A R T 26: GRAINS, AND M A N U F A C T U R E D ANIM AL F E E D S CH A R T 27: WHEAT, CORN, AND C E R E A L AND B A K E R Y PRO D U CTS PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 37 C H A R T 28: W H O LESALE P R IC E S OF ST E E R S, CONSUM ER P R IC E S OF B E E F , AND C A T T L E M A R K E T IN G S C H A R T 29: ANN UAL SU P P LY , P E R C A P IT A CONSUMPTION, AND CONSUMER P R IC E S OF B E E F AND M ILK BEEF CATTLE O N FA R M S, JAN U ARY 1 Head (In millions) PRICES O F BEEF A N D V E A L A N D PER C A P IT A C O N S U M P T IO N O F BEEF Pounds M IL K C O W S O N FA R M S, J A N U A R Y 1 PRICES A N D PER C A P IT A C O N S U M P T IO N O F M ILK Price index Price index (1 9 5 7 -5 9 -1 0 0 ) (1 9 5 7 -5 9 -1 0 0 ) 80 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Digitized 38for FRASER SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT IVIE.A1 (JYC^Lfc. C H A R T 30: F A R M -F O O D W H OLESALE P R IC E S OF HOGS( CONSUM ER P R IC E S OF PORK, AND PRICES: A CHARTBOOK HOG M A R K E T IN G S P R IC E S FOR PORK 39 M A J O R IN D U S T R IA L O R U U R S (1957-59=100) C H A R T 3:is M A CH IN ER Y AND MOTOR V E H IC L E S , M ETALS, AND F U E L AND POWER INDEX INDEX 110—1 i-IIO 105 — -1 0 5 100- -100 95- -9 5 90— -9 0 Relative imDortance — December 1962 85- Machinery and motive products Machinery, e t c ......... ............. 17.6% Metals and products ............. 12.7% Fuels and power . . . . ................7.8% 80- -8 5 - 80 Tables: C—40, C—71, C -8 0 _____I_______ 1___ 75- -7 5 C H A R T 33: T E X T IL E S AND A P P A R E L , H ID ES AND L E A T H E R , AN D TO BACCO AND B O T T L E D B E V E R A G E S Digitized 40for FRASER SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT I K I A L b K lJ U P b (1957-59=100) C H A R T 34: C H EM IC ALS, N O N M E T A LLIC M IN E R A L PRO D U CTS, AND R U B B E R CH A RT 35: P A P E R AND PRODUCTS, F U R N IT U R E AN D H O U SEH O LD D U R A B LE S,A N D L U M B E R AND WOOD P R O D U C T S PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 41 rxu D D U K (1957-59=100) C H A R T 36 s R U BB ER: N A T U R A L, SY N T H E T IC , A N D T IR E S INDEX SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT M A C H IN E R Y AND M U I I V E R K U D U C I S> (1957-59=100) C H A R T 37: A L L M A C H IN E R Y AN D EQ U IPM EN T, AND A L L MOTOR V E H IC L E S PRICES: ACHARTBOOK 43 g>— (1957-59=100) — i— — (1957-59=100) C H A R T 40 s IN D U ST R IA L C H E M IC A L S,A N D DRUGS AND P H A R M A C E U T IC A L S C H A R T 41 : IN D U ST R IA L C H EM IC A LS: O RG AN IC AND IN O R G AN IC C H A R T 42: P L A S T IC M A T ER IA LS,A N D P A IN T M A T E R IA L S PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 45 (1957-59=100) C H A RT 43: A L L - ITEM S CPI INDEX INDEX CH A RT 44:|ALL S E R V IC E S AN D COM MODITIES INDEX INDEX 3HART 45: FOOD AND N O N D U R A B LE COM M ODITIES LE SS FOOD 1A C . rable commodities less food Tables: A -2 , A -7 8 1953 I '54 46 I '55 > ^6 I *57 '62 I 1963 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT (1957-59=100) C H A RT 46: N O N D U R A B LES LE SS FOOD, D U R A B LE S, AND D U R A B L E S LESS CARS INDEX INDEX CH A RT 47: D U R A B LES: NEW CARS, A P P L IA N C E S , AN D F U R N IT U R E AND BED D IN G Digitized PRICES: for FRASERA CHARTBOOK 47 (1957-59=100) C H A R T 18: A P P A R E L , AND A L L N O N D U R A B LE S L E SS FOOD A N D A P P A R E L IN D E X IN D E X 110 105 -1 0 5 ...x ’ 90- -9 5 Nondurable commodities less food and apparel -9 0 Concludes footwear) Tables: A —42, A —79 85' C H A R T 4<>: N O N D URABLESs GASO LIN E, T O IL E T GOODS, T O B A C C O PRODUCTS, AND A L C O H O LIC B E V E R A G E S 90 March, June, September and December indexes 10 -110 Tobacco 95 -95 . . . 1953 I ’ 54 Digitized for48 FRASER T *55 I ' 5 6 I ’5 7 I ’58 I 9?” ____ A —74, A —75 1963 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT C H A R T 51: A P P A R E L , M E D IC A L C AR E, READ IN G AND R E C R E A T IO N , AND P ER SO N A L C A R E P R IC E S : A CHARTBOOK nv^u^>M N ^j 0957-59=100) C H A R T 52: A L L HOUSING, H O U SEH O LD O PERATION, AND HO U SEFU RNISH ING S C H A R T 53: S E L E C T E D HOME-OWNER COSTS: FIR ST M O RTG AG E IN T E R E S T RATES, P R O P E R T Y IN SU R A N C E RATES, AND HOME M A IN T E N A N C E AND R E P A IR S SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT APPAREL (1957*59=100) C H A R T 54*. A L L A P P A R E L , AN D FOOTW EAR C H A R T 56: A P P A R E L , BY T Y P E OF FA B R IC : COTTON, M A N -M A D E F IB E R S , AN D WOOL http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ PRICES: A CHARTBOOK Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 51 (1957-59=100) CH A R T 57: SE R V IC E S: TR A N SPO R T A T IO N , M E D IC A L C A R E . HOUSEHOLD O PE R A T IO N , AND REN T IN D E X INDEX M e d ica l Care Servi at ion Transportation Services’ Includes only the service component of tke “ Transportation” and “Medical Care* major CPI groups (which are composed of both services and commodities.) Tables: A - 2 8 , A - 8 5 , A -8 6, A - 8 7 Y E A R -T O -Y E A R C H A N G E S,SIN C E 1953 (Percent changes in annual averages) A L L S E R V IC E S RENT HO USEHO LD O P E R A T IO N S E R V IC E S T R A N S P O R T A T IO N S E R V IC E S M E D IC A L C A R E S E R V IC E S PERCENT n 59 60 52 62 63 54 ER L 57 59 60 62 63 53 54 56 57 59 60 62 63 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT (1957-59=100) C H A R T 58s H O S P IT A L IZ A T IO N , H O SP IT A L RATES, P H Y S IC IA N S #AND D E N T IS T S 'F E E S INDEX INDEX 155—t r -1 5 5 150 — -1 5 0 -1 4 5 145 — Y E A R -T O -Y E A R C H A N G E S S IN C E 1953 (Percent changes in annual averages) 12D 10- 140 — 8 -140 H O SPITA L RATES - 6135 — PH Y SIC IA N S' FEES 2- 0- — 135 D EN TIST S' FEE S 4- I 130 — H O SPIT A L IZ A T IO N IN SU R AN C E mLMhJ -1 3 0 125— -1 2 5 120 — 120 -115 110— -110 105- -1 0 5 100 -9 5 -9 0 / .• •••*** Hospitalization insurance -8 5 -8 0 8 0 - ...* / 75 - * 70- * — 75 fr * * Tables: A —57, A - 5 8 , A - 5 9 , A - 6 0 ■70 1953 55 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ PRICES: A CHARTBOOK Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ’56 ‘57 ’58 '61 '62 1963 54 SE PT E M BE R 1963 SU P P L E M E N T Table 1. Consumer Price Indexes, October 1962-June 1963 (1957-59=100 unless otherwise indicated) Index Table No.1 1962 annual average 1962 1963 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June A L L IT E M S .................................... A-l 105.4 106.0 106.0 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.2 106.2 106.2 106.6 Food (1957-59=100)..................................... Food (1947-49=100)..................................... Food (1939= 100)........................................... Food away from h o m e ............................ Food at h o m e ........................................... Cereal and bakery products................... Flour, w h ea t.............................................. Bread, w h ite .............................................. M e a t s .......................................................... Beef and v e a l ........................................... P o r k ............................................................. Poultry, fryers ........................................ F i s h ............................................................. Dairy products........................................... Milk, fresh (grocery)............................... B u t t e r .......................................................... Cheese, American p r o c e s s .................. Fruits and vegetables............................ Fresh fruits and v e g e ta b le s ............... Tom atoes.................................................... Oranges ....................................................... P o t a t o e s .................................................... Canned fruits and vegetables . . . . . C o ffee.......................................................... Margarine.................................................... Eggs, Grade A, l a r g e ............................ Sugar............................................................. A-2 A-2a A-2b A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 A-8 A-9 A-10 A-ll A-l 2 A-l 3 A-14 A-l 5 A-16 A-17 A-18 A-19 A-20 A-21 A-22 A-23 A-24 A-2 5 A-26 103.6 122.3 259.6 110.7 102.2 107.6 104.0 110.3 102.5 106.2 99.1 90.7 110.2 104.1 103.5 101.1 109.8 105.0 106.3 97.9 120.1 104.9 103.3 78.8 98.4 94.6 104.6 104.3 123.1 261.4 111.8 102.9 108.0 104.7 110.4 105.4 109.5 102.2 91.0 110.7 104.3 104.0 100.9 109.6 102.0 102.3 73.9 140.8 101.9 102.4 78.9 97.0 104.6 105.0 104.1 103.5 122.8 122.1 260.9 259.4 111.9 112.2 102.6 101.9 108.4 108.2 104.9 104.7 111.0 110.7 104.5 104.1 109.5 109.8 100.2 99.1 86.8 92.5 110.2 110.4 104.2 103.9 104.6 103.4 100.9 100.9 109.6 109.5 102.1 100.2 102.6 99.6 87.1 108.8 127.1 110.4 100.7 100.6 102.0 102.0 77.1 77.5 96.8 96.2 101.1 101.8 105.2 105.1 104.7 123.5 262.4 112.3 103.2 108.7 104.6 111.7 103.6 109.3 98.4 90.0 111.0 103.8 103.3 101.0 109.6 106.4 108.3 126.7 119.4 103.0 102.7 77.2 96.4 103.1 105.2 105.0 123.9 263.1 112.5 103.5 109.2 103.3 113.0 102.8 108.9 97.1 91.0 111.0 103.6 103.1 100.7 109.4 109.4 111.9 129.3 130.5 103.1 104.6 77.1 95.7 100.1 106.2 104.6 1*23.4 262.1 112.6 103.0 109.1 103.1 113.0 101.2 107.1 95.2 91.1 110.4 103.5 102.8 100.8 109.5 109.6 111.8 124.0 141.8 103.9 105.0 76.7 95.2 98.6 106.7 104.3 123.1 261.4 112.8 102.6 109.2 103.4 112.9 98.3 103.5 91.9 89.8 110.5 102.9 102.1 100.6 109.4 112.0 115.1 94.4 145.5 104.6 105.5 76.7 95.2 96.1 107.3 104.2 123.0 261.1 112.9 102.5 109.3 104.7 112.8 98.1 103.3 91.5 88.5 111.1 102.8 101.6 100.8 110.0 113.9 117.4 112.5 150.5 106.9 106.2 76.9 95.0 85.2 113.9 105.0 123.9 263.1 113.0 103.4 109.2 105.3 112.6 98.6 101.8 94.1 89.4 110.3 102.8 101.4 100.7 110.1 115.6 119.7 103.2 143.6 112.3 107.0 77.4 94.9 83.6 150.2 H o u s in g .......................................................... R e n t ............................................................. First mortgage interest r a t e s ............ Property insurance r a t e s ...................... Home maintenance and repairs............ Gas ............................................................. E l e c t r i c i t y ................................................. Solid f u e l s ................................................. Petroleum fuels . ..................................... Housefurnishings..................................... Furniture and bedding............................ Appliances................................................. Household operation............................... Dry cleaning.............................................. T e le p h o n e ................................................. A-27 A-28 A-29 A-30 A-31 A-32 A-33 A-34 A-35 A-36 A-37 A-38 A-39 A-40 A-41 104.8 105.7 102.0 105.8 105.9 112.4 103.0 102.5 101.4 98.9 101.6 93.5 107.4 105.2 104.3 105.0 106.1 112.4 103.2 103.7 100.6 98.8 . 107.6 105.1 106.2 . 112.5 103.2 103.9 102.9 98.7 _ 107.8 _ 105.4 106.3 112.8 103.1 104.8 104.6 97.9 - 105.7 106.6 112.4 103.0 101.7 103.0 98.4 _ - - - 105.7 106.4 101.2 106.7 112.5 103.0 104.9 104.5 98.6 101.9 91.8 109.7 106.1 104.3 105.8 106.5 - 109.3 105.4 106.4 112.5 103.1 104.9 104.5 98.3 _ _ 109.3 - 105.2 106.2 101.6 107.5 106.4 112.6 103.2 104.8 109.6 98.6 101.8 92.2 108.1 106.1 104.3 Apparel............................................................. Men’s and boys’ a p p a r e l ...................... Women’s and girls’ apparel................... F o o tw e a r.................................................... Wool apparel.............................................. Cotton apparel........................................... Manmade fibers a p p a r e l......................... A-42 A-43 A-44 A-45 A-46 A-47 A-48 103.2 103.3 100.9 109.3 103.1 103.6 99.9 104.9 104.2 104.0 109.6 - 104.3 104.3 102.5 109.7 . - 103.9 104.3 101.5 109.9 102.3 104.0 100.3 103.0 103.5 100.2 109.8 - 103.3 103.7 100.7 109.9 _ - Transportation.............................................. Private transportation............................ New c a r s .................................................... Used c a r s .................................................... G a s o l i n e .................................................... A-49 A-50 A-51 A-52 A-5 3 107.2 105.9 102.1 115.2 102.7 108.1 106.9 102.5 119.4 104.3 108.3 107.2 103.8 119.4 103.7 108.0 106.8 102.6 116.7 105.0 106.6 105.3 102.1 108.2 104.2 106.8 105.3 101.7 110.7 103.1 *T a b le num ber is th a t of A ppend ix T a b le in P RIC ES: A CHARTBOOK P rices: A Chartbook, 1953-62, _ 109.9 110.0 - - 105.9 106.7 100.7 108.2 106.6 112.6 103.2 101.6 102.4 98.5 102.0 91.6 110.2 106.8 104.5 103.6 103.9 101.1 110.0 104.7 99.7 103.8 104.1 101.4 110.2 _ - 103.7 104.2 101.1 110.3 - 103.9 104.4 101.2 110.6 104.6 100.0 107.0 105.6 101.4 113.3 103.0 107.0 105.5 101.1 115.4 101.4 107.4 106.0 101.1 115.7 102.1 107.4 106.1 101.2 117.7 100.9 112.4 103.1 103.8 104.5 98.5 _ _ B L S B u lle tin N o. 1 3 5 1 . 55 Table 1. Consumer Price Indexes, October 1962-June 1963 - Continued (1957-59=100 unless otherwise indicated) Table No.1 1962 Annual average Auto rep air................................................. Auto insurance........................................... Public transportation........................... A-54 A-88 A-55 Medical C a r e ................................................. Physicians* f e e s ..................................... Dentists* f e e s ........................................... Hospital r a t e s ........................................... Hospitalization in s u r a n c e .................. Prescriptions and drugs........................ P r e s c r i p t io n s ........................................... Aspirin t a b l e t s ........................................ Multiple vitamin concentrate............... Index 1962 1963 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 107.7 111.5 115.4 . 116.0 . 115.4 108.2 110.0 115.7 115.7 . 116.3 108.7 112.1 116.4 116.5 116.5 108.8 113.5 116.6 A-56 A-57 A-58 A-59 A-60 A-61 A-62 A-63 A-64 114.2 112.2 108.3 130.4 136.5 99.6 95.3 106.1 95.8 114.9 - 115.3 113.1 109.9 132.3 138.1 98.5 93.7 105.9 94.2 115.5 - 115.6 _ - - - - - 115.8 114.1 110.1 136.3 138.6 98.7 93.3 106.7 94.6 116.1 _ . - - 115.0 - - 116.4 - 116.8 114.4 110.9 137.9 141.7 98.7 93.1 105.6 96.0 Personal C a r e .............................................. Men’s haircuts........................................... Toilet g o o d s .............................................. A-65 A-66 A-67 106.5 10 9.9 102.6 106.9 _ 107.1 _ 107.4 _ 107.3 107.8 - - - 107.3 112.4 102.3 107.6 - 107.6 112.4 102.9 - - 107.8 113.5 102.3 Reading and R e crea tio n ........................... Motion picture a d m issio n s.................. N ew sp a p e rs.............................................. Television sets ..................................-. Radios, t a b l e ........................................... Sporting goods........................................... A-68 A-69 A-70 A-71 A-72 A-73 109.6 121.1 109.6 94.2 92.0 103.0 109.5 _ - 110.1 - 110.0 122.5 110.7 93.1 91.4 103.2 110.2 _ - 110.0 _ _ _ _ - 110.1 122.8 111.0 92.7 91.3 102.7 111.0 - 110.7 _ - - 111.0 124.3 117.9 92.1 90.1 102.7 Other Goods and Services Tobacco products.................................... Alcoholic b everages.............................. A-74 A-75 108.9 102.9 - - 109.2 103.2 - - 109.1 103.2 . - - 113.2 104.0 All Commodities........................................... Nondurables.............................................. Nondurables less food............................ Nondurables less food and apoarel . . Apparel less footwear........................... D u r a b l e s .................................................... Durables less new and used cars . . . A-76 A-77 A-78 A-79 A-80 A-81 A-82 103.2 103.6 103.8 104.2 101.8 101.5 98.8 104.0 104.4 104.6 104.5 103.8 102.0 98.6 103.9 104.2 104.4 104.5 103.0 102.2 98.6 103.6 104.0 104.6 105.1 102.5 101.7 98.6 103.6 104.3 104.0 104.7 101.5 100.4 98.5 103.8 104.5 104.1 104.6 101.8 100.6 98.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 104.7 102.1 100.8 98.5 103.6 104.2 104.3 104.7 102.3 100.9 98.4 103.6 104.2 104.2 104.7 102.2 101.0 98.3 104.1 104.8 104.5 105.1 102.4 101.3 98.4 All Commodities Less F o o d .................. All Commodities Less Food (1947-49=100) ........................................... All Commodities Less Food (1939=100) ................................................. A-83 102.8 103.6 103.5 103.4 102.6 102.7 102.9 103.0 103.0 103.3 A-83a 116.8 117.7 117.6 117.5 116.6 116.7 116.9 117.0 117.0 117.3 A-83b 196.5 198.0 197.8 197.6 196.1 196.3 196.7 196.9 196.9 197.4 All Services ................................................. All Services (1 9 4 7 -4 9 = 1 0 0 )..................... All Services (193 9 = 1 0 0 ) ........................... A-84 A-84a A-8 4b 109.5 155.5 193.3 109.8 155.9 193.8 110.0 156.2 194.1 110.1 156.3 194.3 110.5 156.9 195.0 110.5 156.9 195.0 110.8 157.3 195.6 111.1 157.8 196.1 111.1 157.8 196.1 111.3 158.0 196.4 A-85 A-86 A-87 108.5 111.2 116.8 108.7 110.8 117.8 108.8 110.7 118.0 109.1 110.9 118.2 109.9 111.1 118.5 109.9 111.4 118.7 110.2 111.8 118.9 110.2 112.0 119.2 110.2 112.2 119.5 110.6 112.3 120.1 - - _ _ SPECIAL GROUPS Household operation services1............ Transportation services ..................... Medical care s e r v i c e s ............................ *T ab le num ber is th a t of A p pend ix T a b le in P r i c e s : A Chartbook, 1 953-62, B L S B u lle tin N o. 1 3 5 1 . 56 SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Table 2. Wholesale Price Indexes, October 1962-June 1963 (1957-59=100 unless otherwise indicated) Table No.1 1962 Annual average Oct. Nov. Dec. J an. Feb. A L L C O M M O D IT IE S ....................... C-l 100.6 100.6 100.7 100.4 100.5 100.2 99.9 Farm Products and Processed Foods. . C-27 99.6 100.3 100.4 99.3 99.8 98.7 Farm Products (1957-59=100).................. Farm Products (1947-49=100).................. Farm Products (1939=100)......................... Fresh and dried fruits and vegetables.............................................. Fresh f r u i t s .............................................. Fresh and dried v e g e ta b le s ............... Grains.......................................................... C o rn ............................................................. W h eat.......................................................... Livestock.................................................... Steers, choice ........................................... Hogs (barrows and gilts) 200-240 lbs. Live poultry.............................................. Plant and animal fibers........................ Raw cotton................................................. Fluid m i l k ................................................. E g g s ............................................................. C-2 C-2a C-2b 97.7 89.5 245.0 98.7 90.4 247.5 99.3 91.0 249.0 97.3 89.1 244.0 98.5 90.2 247.0 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6 C-7 C-8 C-9 C-10 C -ll C-l 2 C-l 3 C-l 4 C-l 5 C-16 97.7 107.0 90.5 98.8 89.4 103.3 97.6 102.6 95.3 85.3 98.4 98.9 101.2 95.2 97.5 122.7 75.7 98.5 88.9 104.1 100.3 108.9 93.0 85.5 97.5 97.5 102.5 103.1 96.4 108.8 86.0 99.5 87.3 105.6 100.1 110.3 94.0 84.1 97.6 97.4 102.1 112.4 88.5 95.0 82.3 101.1 92.7 105.5 97.4 107.5 93.0 86.0 98.1 97.6 101.9 99.3 C-l 7 C-l 7a C-l 7b C-l 8 C-l 9 C-20 C-21 C-22 101.2 109.1 252.0 107.6 97.8 103.3 97.9 106.9 101.5 109.5 252.8 107.6 99.3 106.4 99.5 107.7 101.3 109.2 252.3 107.7 99.5 108.4 95.1 108.0 C-2 3 C-2 4 C-2 5 C-26 98.0 95.6 83.2 101.3 96.4 94.1 82.1 99.0 C-28 100.8 C-28a Index Processed Foods (1957-59=100)............ Processed Foods (1947-49=100)............ Processed Foods (1939=100).................. Cereal and bakery products ............... M e a t s .......................................................... Beef, cho ice.............................................. Pork loins, f r e s h ..................................... Dairy products and ice c r e a m ............ Canned and frozen fruits and vegetab les.............................................. Canned fruits and j u i c e s ..................... Frozen fruits and j u i c e s ..................... Canned vegetables and soups............ All Other than Farm and Food (1957-59=100).............................................. All Other than Farm and Food (1947-49=100).............................................. All Other than Farm and Food (1939=100).................................................... Textile Products and A p p a re l.......... Cotton products........................................ Wool products........................................... Manmade fiber textile products . . . . Apparel....................................................... Women’s, misses’ , and juniors’ a p p a r e l.................................................... Men’s and boys’ a p p a r e l..................... Hides, Skins, Leather and Leather P ro d u cts......................... Hides and skins........................................ L e a th e r....................................................... Footwe ar (leather ) .................................. ^T able number is that of Appendix T able In PRICES: A CHARTBOOK 1962 1963 May June 99.7 100.0 100.3 97.4 97.6 98.4 98.9 96.5 88.4 242.0 95.4 87.4 239.2 95.4 87.4 239.2 94.4 86.5 236.7 94.9 86.9 238.0 104.0 111.4 99.8 102.0 95.6 106.2 95.1 103.3 88.2 85.8 99.3 98.7 101.3 100.1 96.5 105.4 89.8 103.0 96.3 107.3 98.2 93.0 86.1 90.7 100.8 99.5 101.1 99.1 99.0 114.2 86.9 103.7 95.4 108.7 85.0 86.5 78.6 89.5 101.8 100.5 99.6 99.8 99.6 117.3 85.6 105.1 96.0 111.0 87.9 91.2 79.6 89.5 102.0 100.8 98.3 81.3 99.8 118.9 84.7 102.9 97.4 105.3 87.1 85.1 86.1 83.5 101.7 100.9 97.3 77.1 96.8 108.3 88.1 101.4 103.5 98.5 89.8 85.1 95.3 84.5 101.4 100.4 97.9 79.2 100.9 108.8 251.3 107.6 98.1 108.9 89.9 108.1 100.8 108.7 251.1 107.4 96.2 105.1 93.2 107.8 100.5 108.4 250.3 108.6 92.8 97.1 90.6 108.0 99.0 106.8 246.6 108.0 88.4 90.4 82.2 107.1 99.3 107.1 247.3 108.1 87.2 91.7 78.6 106.9 101.7 109.7 253.3 107.6 89.2 92.0 87.0 106.8 102.1 110.1 254.3 107.0 92.1 90.3 98.5 106.6 96.3 94.5 82.0 98.4 95.7 92.9 81.6 98.4 100.0 96.5 110.8 98.3 99.8 ,96.4 109.0 98.7 101.3 98.6 116.7 98.7 102.9 100.5 128.3 98.1 103.4 102.0 128.3 98.2 104.5 104.4 128.3 98.9 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.4 100.5 100.6 127.6 127.5 127.5 127.5 127.5 127.4 127.4 127.1 127.3 127.4 C-28b 219.6 219.4 219.4 219.4 219.4 219.1 219.1 218.7 218.9 219.1 C-2 9 C-30 C-31 C-3 2 C-3 3 100.6 101.7 99.1 93.9 101.5 100.5 101.0 99.6 93.6 101.7 100.5 100.7 100.1 93.6 101.7 100.6 100.8 100.2 93.7 101.7 100.4 100.6 100.7 93.7 101.3 100.3 100.5 100.7 93.7 101.4 100.2 100.2 100.8 93.8 101.4 100.1 100.1 100.8 93.8 101.3 100.2 99.7 100.6 93.8 101.6 100.3 99.7 100.6 93.8 101.9 C-3 4 C-3 5 100.5 103.8 100.6 104.3 100.5 104.2 100.4 104.3 100.1 104.1 100.3 104.1 100.3 104.1 100.2 104.1 100.3 105.0 100.5 105.7 C-36 C-3 7 C-3 8 C-39 107.4 106.2 108.5 108.7 107.4 108.8 106.5 108.4 107.3 107.1 106.8 108.4 106.9 101.6 106.1 108.5 106.0 95.2 105.2 108.3 105.1 85.9 104.7 108.3 105.1 88.4 103.7 108.3 104.5 85.0 102.8 108.2 104.8 87.4 103.2 108.2 104.4 85.8 102.5 108.2 P rices: A Chartbook, 1953-62, Mar. Apr. B L S B u lletin No. 1351. 57 Table 2. Wholesale Price Indexes, October 1962-June 1963 - Continued (1957-59=100 unless otherwise indicated) Index 1962 Table No.1 1962 Annual average Oct. Nov. Dec. J an. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1963 Fuels and Related Products and Power Bituminous coal, screening, industrial u s e ........................................... Natural g a s ................................................. Electric power, in d ustrial...................... Crude petro leum ........................................ G a so lin e ....................................................... Residual fuels ........................................... C-40 100.2 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.4 100.3 100.8 100.3 100.4 100.9 C-41 C-42 C-43 C-44 C-45 C-46 94.9 134.0 104.0 97.7 97.3 95.2 94.8 133.7 103.9 97.7 99.7 94.4 94.8 133.2 104.0 97.7 98.4 94.4 94.8 134.1 104.0 97.7 97.0 95.4 94.8 131.3 103.8 97.7 95.3 94.4 95.1 135.4 103.9 97.3 93.2 94.2 95.2 135.4 103.7 97.3 95.3 93.3 94.5 135.4 103.7 97.3 96.3 92.2 94.9 135.0 103.4 97.3 99.4 92.2 94.9 135.0 103.3 97.3 101.0 91.0 Chemicals and Allied P ro d u c ts........... Industrial chemicals.................................. Inorganic ch e m ica ls.................................. Organic .......................................................... Paint m aterials........................................... Drugs and pharm aceu ticals................... Plastic materials........................................ C-47 C-48 C-49 C-50 C-51 C-52 C-53 97.5 96.3 102.4 92.6 95.6 96.0 91.7 97.1 96.1 102.5 92.1 93.9 95.1 91.7 97.0 95.9 102.5 91.8 93.9 95.1 91.7 96.8 95.9 102.5 91.8 92.9 94.8 91.7 96.9 96.0 102.9 91.7 93.0 95.2 91.7 96.7 95.2 102.9 90.5 93.0 95.1 91.6 96.8 95.4 102.8 90.6 93.0 95.2 91.6 96.3 95.0 102.0 90.4 91.5 95.1 89.1 96.4 95.0 102.0 90.4 91.7 95.2 89.1 96.3 95.1 102.0 90.4 91.1 95.2 89.1 Rubber and Rubber Products............... Crude rubber................................................. Natural rubber.............................................. Synthetic r u b b e r ........................................ T i r e s ............................................................. C-54 C-55 C-56 C-57 C-58 93.3 93.6 89.9 96.8 86.1 93.1 92.7 89.0 95.7 85.5 93.7 92.8 90.5 95.1 87.1 93.4 94.7 92.0 97.4 88.1 94.3 94.1 89.3 98.0 88.1 94.2 93.7 88.1 98.0 88.1 94.1 92.7 85.3 98.0 88.1 94.1 92.8 85.6 98.0 88.1 93.2 92.6 85.1 98.0 88.1 93.1 92.5 84.7 98.0 88.1 Lumber and Wood Products................. L um ber.......................................................... Douglas fir ................................................. Millwork.......................................................... Softwood p ly w o o d ..................................... Hardwood plywood..................................... C-59 C-60 C-61 C-62 C-63 C-64 96.5 96.5 97.7 101.8 87.3 97.8 96.6 96.7 96.9 102.3 86.7 97.3 96.3 96.3 96.4 102.3 85.6 98.0 95.8 95.8 95.5 102.1 84.6 96.9 95.9 95.9 96.0 102.3 84.7 96.9 96.1 96.2 97.6 102.3 84.8 96.9 96.5 96.6 98.6 102.5 85.9 96.9 97.0 97.6 99.4 102.4 85.6 96.9 97.5 98.4 101.1 102.4 85.4 96.9 98.2 99.0 102.6 102.8 88.3 96.9 Pulp, Paper and Allied P ro d u c ts........ Woodpulp....................................................... Wastepaper.................................................... P a p e r ............................................................. Paperboard.................................................... Converted paper and paperboard products .................................................... C-65 C -66 C-67 C-68 C-69 100.0 93.2 97.5 102.6 93.1 99.3 91.3 96.1 102.3 94.0 99.1 89.4 96.0 102.2 94.1 99.0 89.4 94.6 102.2 94.1 99.0 89.4 94.7 102.2 94.1 99.1 89.4 96.1 102.2 94.1 99.0 89.4 96.6 102.2 94.1 99.0 91.3 92.5 102.2 94.1 99.1 91.3 89.8 102.2 94.1 99.3 91.3 90.8 102.2 94.1 C-70 101.0 100.0 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.9 99.7 99.7 99.9 100.1 Metals and Metal P ro d u c ts................. Iron and s t e e l .............................................. Iron ore .......................................................... Iron and steel s c r a p .................................. Finished steel products ......................... Foundry and forge shop products . . . . Pig iron and fe r ro a llo y s ......................... Nonferrous m e t a l s ..................................... Fabricated structural metal products. . Fabricated nonstructural metal products C-71 C-72 C-129 C-73 C-74 C-75 C-76 C-77 C-78 C-79 99.9 99.3 93.9 69.0 101.4 103.6 91.1 99.2 98.2 103.9 99.4 98.7 93.2 61.9 101.3 103.9 90.5 97.9 98.2 103.8 99.3 98.4 93.2 58.9 101.3 103.8 87.8 98.3 98.1 103.9 99.3 98.7 93.2 62.7 101.3 103.8 87.8 97.7 98.1 103.8 99.5 98.8 93.2 65.2 101.2 103.9 87.8 98.0 98.1 103.7 99.4 98.6 93.2 67. L 101.2 103.7 81.0 98.0 98.0 103.7 99.4 98.4 93.2 66.6 101.1 103.6 81.0 98.1 97.8 103.7 99.4 98.5 93.2 67.0 101.2 103.5 81.0 98.2 97.6 103.8 99.9 99.3 93.2 68.6 102.0 103.5 82.6 98.7 98.2 104.0 100.0 99.0 93.2 65.1 102.1 103.3 82.6 98.7 98.3 104.9 Machinery and Motive P ro d u c ts........... Agricultural machinery............................ Construction machinery and equipment Metalworking machinery and equipment General purpose machinery and equipm ent................................................. Oil field machinery and equipment. . . Electrical machinery and equipment. . Motors, generators, and motor gener ator s e t s .................................................... Switchgear, switchboard, etc., equip ment ............................................................. C-80 C-81 C-82 C-83 102.3 109.5 107.8 109.3 102.2 109.6 108.0 109.3 102.2 110.2 108.2 109.3 102.3 110.5 108.3 109.3 102.3 110.8 108.3 109.2 102.2 110.8 108.5 109.1 102.0 111.0 108.8 109.1 101.9 110.9 108.8 109.4 102.0 110.9 109.2 109.4 101.9 111.0 109.5 109.6 C-84 C-85 C-86 103.3 103.2 98.4 103.7 103.4 98.4 103.7 103.4 98.1 103.8 103.5 98.1 103.9 103.2 98.0 103.6 102.5 97.8 103.4 102.4 97.1 103.4 102.4 97.0 103.4 102.1 97.7 103.5 102.1 97.7 C-87 89.8 89.7 89.7 89.6 89.2 89.1 88.9 88.9 89.1 89.3 C-88 101.8 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.5 101.8 101.8 102.0 102.0 102.0 * T a b le num ber is th a t of A p p en d ix T a b le in Digitized 58 for FRASER f rices: A Chartbook, 1953-62, B L S B u lle tin N o . 1 3 5 1 . SEPTEMBER 1963 SUPPLEMENT Table 2. Wholesale Price Indexes, October 1962-June 1963 - Continued (1957-59=100 unless otherwise indicated) Index 1962 Table Annual No.1 average 1962 1963 Oct. Nov. Dec. J an. Feb. Mar. Apr. May J une Motor vehicles 2........................................ Passenger cars2. ' ..................................... Motor trucks 2 ........................................... C-89 C-90 C-91 100.5 99.3 99.7 100.7 99.3 98.7 100.8 99.4 98.9 100.8 99.4 98.9 100.8 99.4 98.9 100.8 99.4 98.7 100.7 99.3 98.7 100.2 98.6 98.7 99.8 99.1 98.7 99.3 98.4 98.7 Furniture and Other Household Durables Household furniture............................... Commercial furniture............................... Floor coverings........................................ Household appliances............................ Household laundry equipment............ Household refrigeration equipment. . C-92 C-93 C-94 C-95 C-96 C-97 C-98 98.8 103.8 102.3 97.0 94.0 95.6 84.7 98.5 104.0 102.5 96.8 93.0 94.7 83.3 98.6 104.1 102.5 96.8 93.1 94.7 83.2 98.4 104.2 102.3 96.4 93.0 94.3 83.2 98.3 104.5 102.3 96.2 92.3 94.2 82.4 98.2 104.5 102.3 95.9 92.3 94.1 82.5 98.2 104.6 102.3 96.0 92.3 94.1 82.5 98.1 104.4 102.3 95.9 92.1 94.8 82.3 98.0 104.4 102.3 95.7 92.0 94.8 82.2 98.1 104.4 102.4 95.9 91.9 94.9 81.7 Nonmetallic Mineral P ro d u c ts.......... Window g l a s s ........................................... Sand, gravel, and crushed stone . . . Portland c e m e n t..................................... Concrete products .................................. Structural clay p ro d u c ts ...................... C-99 C-100 C-101 C-102 C-103 C-104 101.8 100.6 103.4 103.1 102.6 103.5 101.6 101.8 103.7 102.9 102.7 103.4 101.6 101.8 103.7 102.9 102.8 103.4 101.5 101.8 103.7 102.8 102.5 103.5 101.4 101.8 103.7 101.9 102.5 103.7 101.5 101.8 104.2 101.9 102.2 103.6 101.5 101.8 104.5 101.8 102.2 103.6 101.5 101.8 104.5 101.8 102.2 103.8 101.3 101.8 104.5 101.7 101.9 104.0 101.1 101.8 104.5 101.6 101.9 104.0 Tobacco Products and Bottled Beverages .................................... C ig a re tte s ................................................. Alcoholic beverages ............................ Nonalcoholic b e v e ra g e s ...................... C-105 C-106 C-107 C-108 104.1 101.4 101.0 116.9 104.5 101.4 101.5 117.4 104.5 101.4 101.5 117.4 104.3 101.4 101.1 117.4 104.3 101.4 101.1 117.4 104.3 101.4 101.1 117.4 104.3 101.4 101.1 117.4 104.4 101.4 101.1 117.4 105.2 104.2 101.0 117.4 105.6 105.6 101.0 117.4 Manufactured Animal F e e d s ............. C-109 110.6 112.8 114.9 115.7 118.3 118.2 117.1 111.9 111.2 112.1 C-110 C -lll 97.1 96.8 97.4 97.9 97.6 98.2 96.8 97.1 96.8 97.1 95.6 94.7 94.5 92.8 95.0 93.9 94.2 92.8 94.8 93.7 C-112 97.4 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.8 96.4 96.7 96.5 96.6 96.4 C-113 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.1 100.0 99.9 100.5 100.6 c - ii4 98.0 97.6 97.4 97.3 97.3 97.2 97.1 97.1 97.1 97.0 C-115 100.4 100.1 100.1 99.9 100.0 99.8 99.7 99.6 100.1 100.4 C-116 C-117 C-130 C-118 101.7 101.2 101.6 102.9 101.9 101.5 101.8 102.8 102.0 101.5 101.7 102.9 101.6 101.0 101.8 103.0 101.8 101.2 101.7 103.0 101.5 100.9 101.7 103.0 101.1 100.3 101.8 102.9 100.8 99.9 101.6 102.9 101.1 100.4 101.8 102.9 101.3 100.7 102.1 102.9 C-119 101.0 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.8 100.8 C-120 C-121 C-122 89.2 101.3 100.1 86.3 101.1 100.4 85.4 101.1 100.5 86.4 101.1 100.0 87.7 101.1 100.2 88.6 101.0 99.7 88.7 100.9 99.2 89.4 100.9 99.0 89.9 101.1 99.4 89.1 101.2 99.7 C-123 C-124 C-131 100.1 100.1 100.8 101.0 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.2 100.7 100.1 100.0 100.6 100.9 100.0 100.6 99.7 99.7 100.4 98.9 99.2 100.2 98. 9 98.9 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.4 98.6 100.1 100.7 C-125 C-126 C-127 C-128 101.4 102.9 109.4 98.3 101.4 103.0 109.5 98.0 101.3 102.8 110.0 97.9 101.3 103.0 110.2 97.7 101.3 103.0 110.4 97.7 101.3 102.9 110.5 97.6 101.1 102.6 110.6 97.7 101.2 102.7 110.7 97.8 Stage of Processing Crude materials for further p rocessin g.............................................. Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs. . . . Crude nonfood materials, except fuel............................................................. Intermediate materials, supplies and components..................................... Intermediate materials for non durable manufacturing......................... Intermediate materials for durable manufacturing........................................ Finished goods (goods to users, including raw foods and fuels) . . . Consumer finished goods...................... Consumer other nondurable goods. . . Producer finished g o o d s ...................... Durability of Product Total durable g o o d s............................... Durable raw or slightly processed g o o d s ....................................................... Durable manufactures............................ Total nondurable goods......................... Nondurable raw or slightly processed goods ....................................................... Nondurable manufactures...................... Total manufactures.................................. Special Commodity Group Steel mill products.................................. Machinery and equipment...................... Total tra cto rs........................................... Construction m a te ria ls......................... * T a b l e number i s t h a t of Ap pendix T a b l e in 2 I n d e x e s r e v i s e d b a c k to O c t o b e r 1 9 6 1 . PRICES: A CHARTBOOK Prices: A Chartbook, 1953-62, 102.1 103.1 111.1 111.3 9 8 . 1 . 98.3 102.0 103.0 B L S B u l l e t i n No. 1 3 5 1 . 59 — rm m . m n m ueiuieu L tuiium it i i h i u s , u u v u e i iz u r ju n e 1700 Table N o .1 , 2 1962 1963 O ct. Nov. Dec. J an. Feb. Mar. Apr. May J une BU S IN E SS C Y C L E ( F e b r u a r y 19 6 1 = 1 0 0 , u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e no t e d ) T o t a l i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n d e x ( s e a s , a d j . ) ............... D-2 115.3 115.6 115.2 115.3 116.2 117.3 118.5 120.0 G r o s s N a t i o n a l p r o d u c t in 1 9 5 4 d o l l a r s ( s e a s , a d j . ) ( 1 s t qu a rt er 19 6 1 = 1 0 0 ) .............................................................. D-3 - - 110.1 - - 111.2 - - All e m p l o y e e s in n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s ( s e a s , a d j . ) ....................................................................................... D-4 104.0 103.9 103.9 103.8 104.2 104.6 105.1 105.5 WPI: All co m m o d i t i e s o t h e r th a n farm an d food . . . . D- 5 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.2 99.3 1 2 1.0 p - 1 0 5 .7 P 99 .4 M a n u f a c t u r e r s ’ new o r d e r s , n e t ( s e a s , a d j . ) .................. D-6 116.2 116.0 113.5 116.5 118.8 120.4 123.0 122.2 M an u fa c t u r er s* i n v e n t o r i e s , boo k v a l u e ( s e a s , a d j . ) . D-7 106.8 106.7 107.1 107.2 107.6 108.0 108.4 109.0 1 0 9 .7 P A v e r a g e w e e k l y ho u r s ( s e a s , a d j .) of pr odu ct ion w o rk er s in m a n u f a c t u r i n g ....................................................... D-8 102.0 102.8 102.5 102.3 102.5 102.8 102.5 103.6 1 0 3 .6 P Spot Market I nd ex : D-9 95.6 97.1 96.5 96.2 95.8 95.1 95.2 95.9 94.6 Ra w i n d u s t r i a l s .................................... - C o n s u m e r i n s ta l l m e n t c r e d i t e x t e n d e d ( s e a s , a d j . ) . . D -l 0 122.3 129.6 126.1 127.2 127.6 128.8 131.4 129.3 - P e r s o n a l co ns u m p t i o n e x p e n d i t u r e s ( s e a s , a d j .) ( 1 s t q u a rte r 19 6 1 = 1 0 0 ) .............................................................. D-l 1 - - 110.0 - - 111.2 - - 112.0 D i s p o s a b l e p e r s o n a l in c om e ( s e a s , a d j .) ( 1 s t q u ar t er 1 9 6 1 = 1 0 0 ) .............................................................. D -l 2 - - 109.9 - - 110.8 - - 1 1 2 .9 P C P I : A ll i t e m s ....................................................................................... D-l 3 102.0 102.0 101.8 102.0 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.6 C o n s u m e r g o o d s —In du st r ia l p r o d u c t i o n ( s e a s . a d j . ) . . D -l 4 112.3 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.4 114.6 114.1 115.0 116.4 R e ta il store s a l e s ( s e a s , ad j.) ............................................... D-l 5 111.4 113.7 113.5 113.7 114.3 114.4 114.2 114.2 114.1 P F o o d .............................................................................................. D-l 6 101.4 101.2 100.6 101.7 102.0 101.7 101.4 101.3 102.0 C PI: ............................................ D -l 7 101.9 101.8 101.7 100.9 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.3 101.6 ....................................................... D -l 8 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.5 99.7 99.8 .................................................................................... D -l 9 102.5 102.7 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.3 101.4 101.5 101.8 C ons um er g o o d s —In du st r ia l p r o d u c t i o n i n d e x ( s e a s , a d j . ) ( 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 - 1 0 0 ) ................................................... D-2 7 120.6 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.9 123.1 122.5 123.5 12 5 .0P A v e r a g e hourly e a r n i n g s ( e x c l u d i n g o v e r t i m e ) of p r o d u c t i o n w o rk er s in m a n u f a ct u ri n g ( 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 = 1 0 0 ) D-2 8 113-0 114-0 115.0 1 15.0 115.0 115.0 116.0 1 1 6 .0 - D urable m a n u f a c t u r e s —I n d u st r ia l p r o d u c t i o n inde x ( s e a s , a d j . ) ( 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 = 1 0 0 ) ................................................... D-29 118.8 119.2 118.9 119.0 120.0 121.5 122.8 125.2 126.9 Iron and s t e e l —I nd u st ria l pr o d u c t i o n i nd e x ( s e a s , a d j . ) ( 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 = 1 0 0 ) ................................................... D-36 91 .0 95.3 95.8 96.0 102.2 111.5 121.7 129.0 1 2 3 . (F N ew o r d e r s , n e t ( s e a s , a d j . ) for iron and s t e e l (b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) ..................................................................... D - 37 G r o s s a v e r a g e hourly e ar ni ng ( e x c l u d i n g o ve r ti m e) of b l a s t f ur na ce and b a s i c s t e e l p r o du c ti on work ers ( 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 - 1 0 0 ) .................................................................................... D -38 112.5 112.5 112.9 113.6 114.3 114.6 118.1 F a c t o r y s a l e s (in U . S . ) of d o m e s t i c p a s s e n g e r c a r s ( t h o u s a n d s ) ....................................................................................... D -39 705.7 669.6 647.4 6 58.0 592.8 637.1 New c a r d e a l e r s ’ i n v e n t o r i e s of U . S . make c a r s ( t h o u s a n d s ) ....................................................................................... D-40 732.2 749.6 827.3 9 6 0.4 1,0 2 1 .0 1 ,004.0 D-4 1 723.6 687.4 648.4 687.4 6 01.0 647.4 D - 44 102.2 104.2 98.5 96.0 96.9 106.2 C P I : A l l c o m m o d i t i e s l e s s food W PI : Durable m a n u f a c t u r e s C P I : Durables INDUSTRIAL COMM ODITIES DURABLES P a s s e n g e r c a r a s s e m b l i e s ( t h o u s a n d s ) .................. ... 1.28 1.18 1.22 1.25 1.34 - - 671.8 - . 972.8 952.7 993.5 691.1 715.1 6 9 0 .0 111.6 - - 1 .6 1 1.93 C O N ST R U C T IO N I n d e x of c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l output ( 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 = 1 0 0 ) . H o u si n g s t a r t s : P r i v a t e nonfarm dw e l l i n g units ( t h o u s a n d s ) ....................................................................................... D - 45 H o u si n g s t a r t s : 2 or more f am il y st r u c t u r e ( t h o u s a n d s ) D-46 45 .4 43.5 38.4 35.9 35.2 45.2 50.9 - E x p e n d i t u r e for new c o n s t r u c t i o n ( m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) D -4 3 63.5 62.6 61 .8 62.9 60 .2 61.0 60.5 62.7 1 , 5 0 4 . 0 1 , 5 7 1 . 0 1 , 4 5 3 . 0 1, 2 2 0 . 0 1 , 2 5 5 . 0 1 , 4 9 7 .0 1 , 6 0 5 . 0 1 , 6 6 3 . 0 1 , 5 6 8 . 0 i T a b l e number is t h a t of A p p e n d i x T a b l e in P ric e s i A Cbartbook, 1 953-62, B L S B u l l e t i n N o . 1 3 5 1 . 2 Ej c ce pt for B u s i n e s s C y c l e S e r i e s , qu ar t e r l y and an n u a l d a t a not in c lu d e d for R e l a t e d E c o n o m i c 63.7 P p - Pr e li m in a ry . S e r i e s w h i c h a p p e a r e d in the Cbartbook. SEPTEM BER 7963 SU P P LEM E N T U .S . G O V E R N M E N T P R IN T IN G O F F IC E : 1963 0 - 6 9 8 - 3 1 7
@FedFRASER