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FEDERA1 'JORKS AGZGCY
':70R_T{ PRO.J'~CTS Am:r:-JISTP..A':t:'IJ:tJ
Fo r .2.cleo.se on Delive r y
Satu.rct.,\ f , l:Ic:,,rc}1 ~;3 , 1940 .
CAH LillTJS T~Y ~IRE Tl8 UiifEl1:?LOY:r;D?
The f ollowinc; actd.r 0ss was d.ol i ver 8d. bzr CorrL:1c:;t on Gill ,
AssistE,nt Comrn.i ssio1i e r of t h e; ~io r k Pr:) j,::,cts Aa_::1L.1istr.?.tion , ov ci·
1:- . B . C., on Satur day , :-,iarci1 23 , 1940 , at 1 : 30 p . :-.1. (3ST ) , at a.
l 1.L>1cheo n :.1eeti n~ of The Peo:;:,lc I s Lobo;v , :i:J~s ti onal Pr c r-is Club ,
~7as:j_i~1c;to~1 , D. C.:
The q_uc s ti on
tL:10l y •
11
02.n I nclus try i-: i r,:l thn Uncm, l n='od ? 11 i s c c r t,., i~i l y
Li}: o ;c1&.n:,r oth•J r l a rg0 q_ues ti o ns , all kinc1..s of o.nsw0rs a:;: e 6 i v un .
All xind. s of :t ,::o.s on.s a r o advanc ed t o nx ::i lain 11.ne:np loymcm t .
bring a ne w cro:9 .
This y ,)2.1· ,_-, ill
Next t o the wai· i n Euro p e , ~c r c bably no otr1t' r ~, 1·ob }. u 1
will receive so ~uch att e ntion .
Soille peop l e blame indus try for no t a.0 inb somc t .1 i w~ .:.,to·it un-
can d.o li t tlo o r no thins dir e ctly ab ou t it .
it can .
If business p r osp e cts ar o goor1. y ou con b e, sur e thn.t i nc_\,.str;;r Hill
r oor.r9loy p oo:siLJ .
n e ed - no
Indu s try hir os :,.11 t :1,:i r!,H~~e rs
::10 1·0 ,
Indi vid:llal bus i no"',S cn t ,,rp ris os hir e ,,:ha t l c..b o r t:.--1':,y
no l e ss .
If 10 ;n illi on pOOT.Jl · a r c urw -,'J'J ~: loy c-ci. it i s :co t
b0cc.u i;e ind.ustry doi:, s no t wo.n t to g i vo t h-:!G j obs .
Tl10 re::i.1 r or:.so n :. s t ~1~, t
From tho depths of t ho d.opr c i,si on in 1933 to the cn -:l of 1 9~-i 9 ,
0
Tr1is ic o, rco,l
about u.nc:nn lo:rK. nt n.nd tho r 0s:oonsibi li ti c s of bus i :1,'.,sG .
Thin b i ~ L 1cr,x.1. sc
busL1oss r ocr.:-:;ilo;:,:,Jo. ab out e i gh t r..nd :1. half mil li on n0r:: , rs .
in CT.1) lo3rmont wc•,s D:lde b c c :-,, use business tJ ros ·_,c ct::i wc:..·e f;oocl. .
Any f 1:.rt:-1 ,r
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incr ccts os in cmp l0ymont ,vill C!omo :ib ou t f o r t he
s n.1:1 0
r oo.:,o n .
This b rings u s t o th e qucs ti on c : How ma ny wo r J-: or s must industry 1· oom:pl oy in orde r t o bri ne un ompl0 ymc n t rlown t o r>. l ow l e v el?
c:m go t n goo d i dea of th o s iz e of th o j ob by l ooking o. t
;io
t hJ numb e r of
pP.opl o n ow r ogul :-;rly omrJ l oy " d and the numb or L'.V(.\.i J. o..b l o fo r w0 r k .
Thor c i s v e r y li ttl o gu,Jss 'i ng on t :1.0s c po i,1ts .
Som e TJCO:_,;l o
1 94.-0 census r e t ·:.ir ns .
L ot t s l ook o.t t h o s i r:rp l ci fnc t s ,
s how us rrhc,t
':IG
h.:.'.v o t o f n,co .
;,,1;.d
e.dd
U':l
th e f i guHrn ,hicl1
Ir::. t h o f ir s t i-:: l o.c o , h o•:; d oP. s r oc:;ul::-.r orin! l oy-
mon t c or-rDc;::•CJ no..-: \·,it h t h o p r os-p0. r ity e r[)., of o. l i ttl e ov r: r n a.cc ::-,d o ::.::;o ?
Offici o..l f i ~-;i.E· os sho \7 t h ~s~ omp l 0ymont n
f ,\ \7
mont h s
::.·.,'?;O
i n c r ea s e d to -'.'.. h i c h
knoH t ::ic .t t h s>. v oJmnc, of i ndu s tri o..l p r oducti on r oc,chc d o.n Csll- t i r:c :'.::-c 2,:c.
oop l oyr.wnt h ::..s J.rop~od d r ~.s ti ca1.l y i n t >'. J l ::.st ic1ont l1 o r b :o .
Nou , l ot I s l o ok o.t th o s occnd c.nd ln.r g f:' st e L in on t i n ou r un-
nl .:1c o s inc ,J 1929 .
Tho i nc r c.:-.so h:,s 2.n ou.:.1t cd. to 6 , 600 , 000 pe rs on s - t h ['_, t is ,
,.,. thi s
t :1G nu.r10 ,:;r n o r t :L1c o r l oe,ki n6 fo r 1:rc r k has L1cr o::i,s:::,d h... ,•
tho n u.;:fb c, r y;o r li:i21g o r l ool:ing fr-,r
t h is g r o11t h .
·•10 r
;{: i n 19 29 .
cl.TJOl.Dl
t o v e: r
Tl-.1.•-:· r 1.) ~~r o t ,.;o r ct-:.ro ~1s fo r
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In t he fir st pl a c e norr.1a l po~ulation g r on t h o..dds t o t ~10 lo.ba r
supply .
Soc onclly - c,no. t h is po int is c onfu s i ng t o nos t Dcor,il e - tl10 "Go
The r o o. r o now r e l r>, tiv ol ;;; nore
struct 1.11·e of our popula tion is chang ing .
peopl e of no rki ar, 0..'-':o tho..::1 t he r e ntre t en :J t'.) C~rs .:1:;o •
Diffi cult o.s it i s t o
b eli ovo , t he incro.:..1.sc in th e nunb or of pco"9l e of -_;o r z.:i :-if; n.6 0 h.:1.s been g r oo.to r
t h.:m the L1croo,se in tl:e total -populD.ti on .
This f a ct is ir.ipo rtnnt .
It h.:..,s b co,1 ovo rlo o~-rnd by sor::10 ·. 1011-
k no-. 111 110·.1spo.po r columni str;; , and otho rs .:1,s ·.1c~11 , rlith th~ r ,i sult tho. t t~10y
t h i n:;: 1mer.:pl oy,:10nt i s lees se r fous t ho..n it r ec..11:r i s .
The fncts of the
si tu.c,tion o..re t hat t he J. ,"..bo r ::n1.r,::ily i s mien l a r ge r t h.'..ln 1 1 y oo. rs n~;o o.nd
t h1J r o o,r•c fo,.'e r j obs t o ,'.;o 8. r o 1.n:d. .
Ar:.:;r,·g_1.y ;;i oll lo ok C1. t it , you cannot cs-
capo the fD..ct t h['_,t t h,:: si ~rn of t ho p r o b l er.: h (,s g ITorm .
L ot I s ndd. t ~18GO fi f;·nr",s up .
The f ir st fi gur e I g:wc ,1.:1.s t .:.10
1 , 500 , 000 u:.1 01:-,~) l<'ycd rrho r o:'._) r csont t he d ocre2.so in cup l o~•nont fr on 1 929 t o
1 939 .
Tho,1 c,dd to t h i s th e 6 , 600 , 000 r:1ore -,,o:rl:crs i n t~1e l G.b C'r su1Y9ly .
Tl:is
con') s t o 8 , 100 , 000 i nc r ease i n uncnp l oyncnt ove r .::m ost i nntod 2 ::,il ~io;.1 i:1
Th o s i tua.tirin then is t h i s .
ar c still 8 r. illi on uo r e Hho ncod j obs .
I ncl.us try h::,s r ·.leD:-;l o~r od :_,'bout 8
L ,Li.ustr:, c .::mno t :!_:' Ut L~,·t1c- ['..1 1 to
vmr k quic l:l y e v en unde r v e r y Lw0 r o.b l e c j_rcw1s t:1;.1ces .
t o do th o j ob .
supply .
It r:il l t -L~ :o ;/oar s
A.1d or:.ch y o:.1.r .:::moth0 r 600 , 000 r;o r:w r s arc o,ddod to the l.::~oor
Wo h::..ve t o k oep on i :1c r o::is i::.1g on r loy::1e:1 t e-7.c i:1 y,:2,r by this fisnro
jus t t o h ol d. ou r g r ound. ; i f we ncnt c.ny r educ ti on i n th o 8 nilli on Hho ouc;i.1t
to go t j obs nc r.ms t i n crec.sc o.c ti vi t y Duch Do r e ,
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Sono idem of t ho s i zo of tho -p r obl or.1 CD.,n b e soon in t l1i s rmy .
If i ndus try i nc r ease d em1)l oyment each year by the enormous fi gur e of 2
million , at t }1e end of five y ears we would nave unemp loyment dorm t o about
3 milli on .
Such an increase is most i mp r obcib l e .
I n dustr~r does not e~::-0a11d
Whnt a re the
t hst rnuc:l or t h :.,t steadily for s o me:.ny yecl.rs at a s tr e tcli.
_p ro s:9e c ts tt;:.,, t l)rivate industry will be ab l e t o a~so r b t :10 se une m1 l oyec.
wo r kers?
I 2.m not go i n g t o try my hltnd t odo.y at the tric;cy- game of
"bus i ness forecctsting .
Th C:J re are serio1is obstD. cles t o t :'l.e r a·c i cl n.nd e.'.',sy.
s ort of long- ti me e conomi c ex:\Jansion we be co.rae .::.c c u.stor:1ed t o in t he :90..s t .
Th e disc.p)ec.ro,nce o f t he f r on ti e r a nd t he o..upe,r on t absence of e,ny revol "'.1t i onz-,ry d.ove l o1mcmt li ke t he n.ut omob il e h nv o moite it , c. nd still ;:v.\~:e it ,
difficult to fin d. o..dequ..'1 te outl e t s f or tho slwings we , as o. nation , t(md
t o o.cc·:..uaulo.tc:.i in p r os:perous tim0s .
·17n. r nnd c th,::: r clifficul ti c s c,bro ::-,d. d.i n
tlrn ch:v1c cs of foru i ?,:n i m,· ,:rn tm ent as :-., s timulus .
Ri gid. p ric e nnd cost
po li ci ,: s '"\nd t h.:; c r ow t h of trr;cle b n,rri 8 rs botvr,""cn the stz~t,:,s in roco;1t yc,c..rs
ho.v 0 h andicc1..p;,0C:. e conomi c 0X9ans i on .
Eow r :-:-,:·, i d
0 1i r
pro~rcss will be in
ovurcominc; o r circumve nt i ng t hoJo obst~1.cl cs I woul c1. no t r.'c.n t t o :)roclict .
Twe nty yn~~s , o r ov en t on yours fr om now , t ho level o f ~c0nomi c ~c ti vity
mew bo such t h.'.)_, t uncmpl oymon t will no l o!lgcr b ,:, c., sc ri cis p rob l o::i .
'.7o c..1'O conccrnocl , howovor , a bout t he ·,:irossn t n nd. t to iri1;:10d.i.".. to
fut ure .
''~ n1,,
.-,;
u.1,
Tho .-io lic i os wo ,::.rG no'.·.r formul"'ting mu0 t bo ~~o lici 0 s t lnt Hill
··
t 0 tl'lO
llOX t
f ~J\7 yen, r S •
;,..1.-_ !",,~,:,_1
H,
- -"'· t_·_.1.· r 1,__-~, 0.' .cfini t o c ~'..l1 bo sc.,i c3c
•• .-_-. 1· 0 I t ·n1.· .,.,
,:,,bout tho ~~i ros i:::c, ct f or t !:l.G o.,bso r p ti on of t:i.c un cm)loy"d •
Fr om 1 933 to
1937 t ~:o r~:,t -:J of r e c overy r,:-·,s , it i s e;onn r 0,llJ ,':'..d.nit tod , :pro tty r ,:.:,:i i C:. ; ::::,s
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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY
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r -'.lv i d , cort o..i n l y , ,.·.s no nro lil::::o l y t o s e:o i n tho next foH y o~~rs .
Ev o~1 if
we co1llc:t l1i t t l1..o ro c ov cry ~1 :-1.c o of 1 9;52- 1937 agai n , i t r:,oul d t o.lee ·us fi vc
nr
S l' .:r :_
•ro,...,__· ,_.,"~
. •.,.r od .
•os+v o r~ t 'no mnoin'_,'. l "'·.,'
to .c<~.'o ,~o
~ rb m
·· +•c
· bv,.
A r o·
.• U. 11
,. 1 ,-~1
. . . -r L•
,~LS
,~,,.,_\.:
O:...r
t 's'10
present :01 :i.·os:-:,o cts fo r bus in uss c:x:p<1.n s ion suggos ts t i1c. t o.n~' such r['.t c of incr cc.s c iG ~1i ghly unlikely .
It i s no t nmi n. ques t ion of r c cov.-_,ry .
t he 1929 l ev el of o.cti vi ty .
Wo :c oc on t ly r i:.: covoi· od. t .J
:7hc.t we n ood is o~-:.ac::~';ion fc .r b oyo;1d t:·10 J.J v ols
of <'.n;f o!'·. rlicr pe ri od .
TT c must , o f c oursl; , ccntinuc c...:i.d j_nt .~·1:.sif/ o-u..~.. effo rt s to
stimu.lc.t o c.nc'~ cmc.our:cg,c cx-o,·.nsicn cf cconcE1ic .-,.ctivi t y in nvc r ;y \l::c~' p o r;si_blo .
si de r c1,bl o t ine t o cnmo .
co rchnG;l;y .
I t i s betto r , not onl;'/ f er the" u ,~,-:-rn,::,l o:,rr:-:d. O'.lt for
rot only rr.ust n c -o : .· ovido o. ;:10:1::..1s of liv::lihoo:"'. f 0r t~:o
r l oyccl, out ,rn shoul d C1.ls0 m8.k:e the full.::·st po:.1s i b l o uso
c1f
lU1<:u--
t hi$ o~:-'o:ct·c,:1ity
to tu1·11 thei r d,Js i re for useful woric t o (1.ccorn1t in ,·,::.vs that \! ill be of
d ofi ,1ite v.:., luc: t o the ir commurii ty
,
::i.ttd.
t o tho ::int i o11 .
oo nOooo
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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY
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@FedFRASER