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t.l b!&)3'i 'f ",A 'ppi":. "& DEC p~.". &jiff 1 I' ~ 1ggg p„ Treas. HJ 10 .A13P4 v. 244 U. S. Dept. of the (; Treasury PRESS RELEASES apartment of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Washington, O.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 RELEASE Friday, March 5, 1982 There were no injuries and only limited damage from Bureau of Engraving and Printing this morning. The fire, of undetermined cause, apparently started in duct work in a pressroom devoted to postage stamp printing. It was discovered at approximately 2:45 a. m. and, aided by automatic extinguishers, employees at the scene contained the fire until D. C. firemen arrived and brought it under complete control by 4:00 a. m. a fire at the The fire was confined to a 4, 000 square foot wing of the Bureau's Annex Building, east of 14th at C Street. Two of the four printing presses in the area are expected to be in operation next week, and the two others will require refurbishment. It is expected that some stretchout in scheduled delivery of selected postage stamps will be required, but rearrangement of production schedules will result in minimal impact on the overall Postal Service product program. in Cost of repairing the damage has not yet been determined detail, but is not expected to exceed $75, 000. R-G61 epartmeni of the Treasury o Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone %66-2041 March BIOGRAPHICAL 5, 1982 NOTES DORE MCLAUGHL IN SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS ANN ASSISTANT Ann was confirmed on June 12, 1981 Secretary of the Treasury for Public Affairs. Dore McLaughlin as Assistant Since 1977 Mrs. McLaughlin has been President of D. C. and Washington McLaughl in & Company o f Washington, Manager of Braun and Company of Los Angeles, California. Both firms are public affairs companies. In 1974-77 she was with the Union Carbide Corporation. director, Office of Public Affairs, Environmental Protection Agency, in 1973-74. Mrs. McLaughlin was Assistant to the Chairman and Press Secretary, Presidential Inaugural Committee in 1972-73. In 1971-72 she was Director of Presidential Election Committee. Communications, Previously she served as an Account Executive with Myers-Infoplan International, Ines of New York City. Mrs' McLaughlin was Director, Alumnae Relations, Marymount College in 1966-69; and Supervisor, Network Commercial Scheduling, American Broadcasting Company, in 1963-66. She was was graduated from Marymount College and attended the University of London, Queen Mrs. McLaughlin (B.A. , 1963) Mary College in 1961-62. Mrs. McLaughlin is married D. C. She was born in Chatham, R-662 and New resides in Washington, Jersey on November 16, 1941. partmeni of the Treasury ~ Washington, March O.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 8, 1982 B I OGRAPH Y Michael A. Driggs Acting Director of the Office of Chrysler Finance Michael A. Driggs is currently the Executive Director of the Chrysler Corporation Loan Guarantee Board and the acting Director of the Office of Chrysler Finance for the Office of the Secretary. The Office of Chrysler Finance is responsible for supporting the activities of the Chrysler Corporation Loan Guarantee Board, which has the authority to guarantee up to He has been $1.5 billion in loans to the Chrysler Corporation. in the Office since its inception in January 1980. the Office of Management and Budget from responsible for review of federal transportation activities concentrating on the railroad industry. His first three years at OMB were spent in review of the activities Previously, 1973 through he was with 1979. was He of several foreign intelligence agencies. was an intelligence officer in the United States Army from 1969 to 1972. He had several assignments in the United States and the Republic of Viet Nam. He Mr. Driggs Virginia. R-663 has an He MPA and BA degree and resides is single from the University in Washington, D. C. of West )epartment of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE D.C. ~ Telephone %66-2041 ~ Washlnyion, 1982 March 8 RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS for $4, 802 million of 13-week bills and for $4, 802 million of 26~eek bills, both to be issued on March 11, 1982, were accepted today. Tenders OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: RANGE High Low Average a/ Excepting b/ Excepting Tenders Tenders 13-week bills June 10, 1982 Investment Discount Rate 1/ Rate Price 26~eek bills Se tember maturin maturin : Price Discount Rate 9, 1982 Investment Rate 1/ 93.947 b/ 11.973% 12.92% 12. 55% 93.885 12.096% 13.06% 12.65% 12.098% 93.901 12.064% 2/ 13.03% 12.61% 12.058% 5 tenders totaling $4, 100, 000. 3 tenders totaling $3, 000, 000. at the low price for the 13~eek bills were allotted 33%. at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 87%. 96. 967 a/ 11.999% 96 942 96. 952 TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED (In Thousands) Location Received Boston 66, 425 8, 318, 100 82, 065 New $ York Philadelphia 65. 415 43, 245 Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury TOTALS Competitive Noncompetitive Subtotal, Public Federal Reserve Foreign Official Institutions TOTALS 55, 300 776, 255 33, 535 20, 985 55, 025 29, 105 544, 365 225, 855 $10, 315, 675 $ $ 8, 165, 080 1, 054, 295 9, 219, 375 1, 080, 100 16, 200 $10, 315, 675 ~dcce ted : Received 50, 345 : $ 107, 310 $ 3, 692, 900 : 7, 225, 930 22, 580 32, 065 : 59, 585 44, 415 : 112,530 43, 245 : 54, 550 : 374, 505 : 32, 535 : 18, 975 : 55, 025 : 25, 755 : 41, 025 42, 840 43, 675 22, 060 637, 930 151,415 : 272, 550 225, 855 : $4, 801, 585 : $9, 374, 750 97, 530 75, 625 288, 510 31, 725 39, 840 43, 675 17, 060 148, 930 272, 540 $4, 802, 240 : $6, 816, 520 : 980, 730 $2, 344, 010 : $7»797. 250 980, 730 $3 324, 740 975, 000 875, 000 602, 500 16, 200 $4, 801, 585 : $9»374»750 602, 500 $4, 802, 240 $2, 75Q, 99Q Q54, 295 $3, 805, 285 980, 100 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. 2/ The four-week average for calculating the maximum on money market certificates is 12.976%. R-664 76, 625 710, 110 ted 77, 310 3, 637, 330 22, 580 49, 585 ~dcce $ interest rate payable epartment of the Treasury ~ Washlneton, O.C. ~ Telephone 566-204% For Immediate Release: March 9, 1982 Remarks Prepared For Delivery By The Honorable Donald T. Regan Secretary of The Treasury To The Chamber of Commerce Winston Salem, North Carolina Tuesday, March 9, 1982 -- I am delighted to be here in North Carolina a state with a long and glorious history. Through the years North Carolina has given many a prominent son and daughter to the service of the United States not least among them are Senators Jesse Helms and John East. -- This state has a gift for producing talented people ask any Virginian and they' ll tell you about the talents Perkins, James Worthy and Dean Smith. Most of us here have studied at have probably found a collection dispassionate it analysis. -- of just Sam least some history. And most of dry facts and cold, if one were to trace the development of that to its origins, one would find that history was intermingled with mythology. The ancient Greek historian Herodotus is a case in point: Confronted with an event that could not interpret, Herodotus and other ancient historians simply resorted to a myth in order to explain it. However, discipline he I mention this only because today there are some who would use the same technique to impugn this Administration's policies and purposes. The confusion of myth and reality may have been harmless in the ancient world; but in these times the consequences of that confusion can be profound indeed. I'm afraid that myths about the Administration's program are and communicated I'd like to instantaneously. spend some time today examining some of those myths to see if there is any element of truth in them, or whether reality is so far divorced from myth as to leave them empty slogans -- mere propaganda in the service of politics-as-usual. concocted daily, The first myth ago and we should inflation economy. is that things were better just a few years return to those wonderful days of a high For those of you who have forgotten the joys of 13 percent inflation and 21 percent interest rates, it must be reassuring to hear that ghostly call from our opponents for easy money, R-665 quick-fix tax increases, and less defense spending. As former Vice President Mondale assumes the mantel of economic spokesman, we can almost see the current Democratic leadership in the Congress feeding him talking points on the glories of past policies -- the policies of failure that got us into this mess in the first place. It was during the Carter Administration that inflation and interest rates reached all time highs: that the market for I suggest housing and autos started their trek to all-time lows. I those policies. return to if they want a we ask the unemployed who ageeed just suggest we ask the Ford Motor Company employees to pay cuts in order to save their jobs if they also want new tax increases and a return to higher inflation. Those are the people in the front lines of this fight for economic recovery. And they know better than to believe the myths of the gloomocrats who shout depression and hope for a failure of our program. The second myth is: "Reaganomics has been tried and found the To paraphrase wanting. " Reality, however, says otherwise. English author G. K. Chesterton: The Administration's program has been found difficult, and has not yet been fully tried. Let me just remind you of how the program was fashioned in the first place. Shortly after the Administration took office, a carefully integrated economic game plan was developed. Simply stated, it was a fourfold program: first, we asked for an across-the-board tax cut of thirty percent over three years; second, we asked for major cuts in the fiscal 1982 budget; third, we instituted a program of regulatory reform; and fourth, we encouraged the Federal Reserve Board in a policy of slow, steady growth in the money supply -- one that did not alternately starve and force feed the economy. Only one element of the program is ~full operative. Regulatory reform is being carried out under the auspices of Vice president Bush. It's been remarkably successful so far, saving the private sector $2 billion in annual operating costs, and perhaps $5 billion in initial capital costs. Other parts of the program are only partially operative. Accelerated cost recovery for capital investments went into effect last year. All told American business will realize an increase of around $10 billion in cash flow in 1982 That's $10 billion that American businesses won't be alone' dipping into the credit markets for. The thirty percent across-the-board personal tax reductions that we originally proposed were reduced and delayed by the Last year's five percent cut, coming as it did in the Congress. fourth quarter, swallowed whole 1. was only 25 by inflation. percent for the year, and was truly significant cuts won't begin until this July when tax rates will be cut by ten percent. I might add that this will be the first time in recent history that a tax cut has become effective during a recovery rather than later, as was so often the case in the past. The personal July's cut will be followed next year by an additional percent rate cut, making the cumulative cut in tax rates twenty-five percent. ten The Administration's advocacy of slower growth in the money In 1980, supply brought results even beyond our expectations' the annual inflation rate was 12. 4 percent. In January of this year it was down to 8. 4 percent, and in the previous four months it was running at an even lower rate. The fourth element in our program was a reduction in the efforts federal spending. As a result of bipartisan to cut $35 billion from the fiscal 1982 budget. growth of were able we still is sufficient to put the United States back real, noninflationary growth. If Congress will give it the time, the program will work; if Congress will cooperate with the Administration's latest economic proposals, the program will lead us out of this recession and onto the The program on the road to of prosperity. The third myth that we find circulating goes something like this: When the Federal government dips into the credit market to finance the deficit, it will bid up interest rates, and crowd out other borrowers. The reality that we see is a credit market that will accommodate both government and private borrowers. Let's be clear from the outset; the Administration is deeply troubled by deficits. Like taxes, deficits are used to finance excessive government spending which absorbs resources better left in the private sector. We are opposed to them as a matter of principle; and intend to see a budget in balance ultimately. economic high ground But the deficit must be put in some perspective; it can't be viewed in isolation from the rest of the economy. Granted, viewed in isolation and in terms of sheer dollars, the projected budget deficit is the largest in our history. But that does not hold true if you put the deficit in the context of the total economy. For fiscal 1983, we' re projecting a deficit that amounts to 3. 1 percent of the gross national The fiscal 1976 deficit amounted to 4. 5 percent of the product. gross national product. Nevertheless, won't financing a deficit of that magnitude drive up interest rates don't believe it will. Private saving, and "crowd out" other borrowers? We from normal growth and the effects Tax Act, will be several times the total the federal government in fiscal 1983 resulting of the Economic Recovery borrowing requirement of and fiscal 1984. year-to-year increases in saving exceed $40 billion personal each year. This will be supplemented by the additional tax cuts. the induced by savings and additional business earnings Compared to 1981, private saving will be more than $60 billion higher in 1982, more than $170 billion higher in 1983, and more than $260 billion higher in 1984. Private saving was just under $480 billion in 1981; it will rise to more than $740 billion in 1984. The net additions to total private saving are larger than the increase in the deficit. If anything, we' ll see "crowding in, " " rather than "crowding out. Normal fourth myth one hears repeated taxes to balance the budget. The -- it. lately is: We must raise The cause of the current and projected deficits other factor -- is a lack of economic growth. Far from more than any to balance the budget, while raising living through economic growth that enlarges the tax base. We want to see growing payrolls that will contribute to federal not taxes on a declining number of workers and revenues, higher The only way is standards, businesses. has tried time and time again to balance the increases. And it hasn't accomplished the The government budget with tax objective. 1974 and 1981, despite several legislated tax overall federal tax receipts rose $338 billion; yet accumulated deficits of $350 billion, and today have a debt in excess of a trillion dollars. Between reductions, we still national Raising taxes does not balance budgets; raising taxes makes easier. Tax increases simply give the federal spending government more constituencies to spend on federal programs for even greater spending. that create re f aced with any number of proposal s to raise taxes the name of balanced budgets. Many a member of Congress who once worshipped at the shrine of John Maynard Keynes and deficit financing has undergone a transformation more sudden and miraculous than St. Paul's conversion on the road to Damascus. Now we ' -- One proposal a course ~pending and stopped dead would would that have increased taxes by some $200 billion have meant massive cuts in defense Security benefits. The economy would have in Social in its tracks for years. of Congress believe the deficits are caused by tax cuts enacted last year. The general perception is that federal revenues have been slashed to an historically low level, aad that revenue increases are needed to fund essential Government functions. This is. another myth. Many members the massive In the 1960's, taxes as a percent of GNP averaged 18.6 In the:. 1970's, taxes as a percent of GNP averaged 18.9 percent. percent. In 19 of the last 25 years, taxes as a percent of GNP were lower t'han the 19.4 percent level projected in fiscal 1983. P'ostponinQ the %ax cuts-, or eliminating them altogether would transform'"&a. -t'ax program oriented toward work, and saving, and productivity into just another attempt to fine tune the economy. Tampering' With the July '82 tax cut should be anathema to even the most: doctrinaire-%(eynsian. That tax cut will occur at just the right- time to feed' the momentum -of recovery. Eliminate it and recovery would probably be out of the question during 1982. or made And, '-if -the 1983 tax cut' is postponed, or eliminated, contingent 'or? future' economic performance, we'd be injecting the most toxic of elements into 'the economic system -- uncertainty. I might add that the small businessman would be especially affecte'd'by any change in the Administration's program of general tax rate-ieductien bec'ause typical small businessman is unincorporated and pays a per'sonal income tax. the President took office, he promised the country that That is no longer be subjected to business-as-usual. it precisely 'what we'd have if. the program of tax rate reduction is When would undermined. ' "History makes men wzse, " then we'd do well to learn from past attempts to attack deficits through tax increases rather than spending cuts. President Lyndon Johnson imposed a surtax of 7. 5 percent in 1968, ten percent in 1969, and 2. 5 percent in 1970 ' If, as, Francis Bacon sand, ' And from late 1969 to late 1970, real gross national product But more declined one percent and unemployment almost doubled. to the point, the deficit -- from being marginally in balance in 1969 -- grew to $23 billion in 1971. The tax increases reduced saving, higher deficit. If anything, investment and gross national product, and led to a balance of $3. 2 billion in the 1969 budget was an exception that proved the rule: Taxes won' t balance the budget, they' ll simply bloat the governments Tampering with the tax program in the name of balancing the budget would send a clear, unmistakable message to the economy a message that would say, "We' re back to business-as-usual back to the old stop and go policies. " that marginal will confirm the market's belief that the specifically the legislative branch -- is incapable of taking the long-term actions necessary for real growth. And that belief in turn will keep interest rates high. These are just a few of the myths that have gained currency For example, some still in recent weeks' There are others: believe we' re cutting government spending in an absolute sense. We' re not; we' re simply slowing the rate at which government That message -- government has grown. spending last time that federal spending accounted for less than percent of the gross national product was in 1974. Last year it accounted for twenty-three percent -- almost one in every four dollars generated by the economy. The twenty is not to cut government spending per se, but to In this way we share of the gross national product. can make greater resources available to the private sector Our purpose its reduce that can be used productively. resources Another myth is that we' re cutting taxes. In fact, we' re not cutting taxes in an absolute sense; we' re preventing them from rising as high as they would have because of increases in social security taxes during the last Administration, and because of bracket creep. nor our efforts to cut the growth of are mere doctrinaire adherence to ideology. They are very much the product of pragmatism. Our objective in both instances is to prevent the government from encroaching further on the resources that the private sector needs in order Neither our tax program federal spending to grow in productivity. Having said that, I would also point out that our economic do rest on a foundation of principle. has been and again, and can be summed up quite handily in two again proven private enterprise. words policies It -- in the market place, we believe that the We believe given enough incentive and enough regulatory room entrepreneur, to maneuver, will work miracles, using what President Reagan called "the magic of the marketplace. " Far too often we in government think, and act, and speak in terms of what we -- the government -- will do. In fact, there is little of a lasting and productive nature that government can do, other than to establish a hospitable atmosphere for the intelligence, the creativity, and the talent of individuals men and women who are willing take the risks that have made this nation the great economic power that it is. That is precisely what this Administration is trying to do-establish an economic atmosphere that is conducive to work and to saving, to risk and to enterprise. We believe in the words of the Seventeenth Century English poet James Graham that, "He either fears h is fate too much or his desserts are small, who will not put it to the touch to win or lose it all. " We alive believe that the adventurous still We is the believe that the free marketplace of allocating goods and services . We it that, if given the right circumstances, the economy. and again pervade means spirit of the entrepreneur believe in applying all because indivisible. economic will is effective most most of these free market principles and political freedom are freedom Shakepeare wrote that brevity is the soul of wit. And, if that ' s true, then one of our Presidents, Calvin Coolidge to be precise, was one of the wittiest men to live in this century. story is told of a White House press conference during reporters were vainly firing their questions at Calvin Coolidge . "Have you anything to say about Prohibition?" The which II Nope lf to say about the situation?" "Have you anything fl If Nope "About the farm "Nope. " "About the Il Nope II f orthcoming The meeting the room. At that "And don' t World Court?" senator ial campaign?" broke up and the reporters began to file point Coolidge called out to the departing quote me. " out of reporters, that I can' t approach Nr Coolidge in brevity, I ' m not so sure about wit . But one thing I ' m positive of is this: You certainly may quote me as I touch on It ' s and obvious sometimes ~ the final myth. That myth has not gained widespread attention, but some of you may have heard speculation about the possibility of another depression. Nothing could be more absurd nor further from reality. This nation is nowhere near that fate. contrary, our program -- combined with a resolve to continue reducing the growth in spending this nation out of the twilight of recession and We are about to see the daylight of prosperity. dawn of a new era -- an era marked by stable prices and low interest rates -- an era marked by productivity and initiative an era marked by confidence and growth. Quite the Congressional will bring into the broad can only create the environment As I said earlier, government for capital investment, only you can put that capital to work. hospitable to talent and Government can create an environment innovation, but only you can bring them to bear in the economy. Government what rewarded; risk. can create climate in which risk is the willingness to take that an economic it can't create is others like you throughout the country, can summon the entrepreneurial spirit that welcomes risk. I'm asking asked others around the country, to seize the as I have you, program offers. opportunity that the Administration's Only you, and Churchill once pleaded with Franklin Roosevelt, "Give us the tools and we will finish the job. " Winston saying: We' ve given you the tools, finish the job of restoring Thank you. and trust that the nation's you economy. will, begin and )epartment of the TreasurV ~ Washlnpton, 4:00 FOR RELEASE AT PE M. O.c. ~ Telephone S66-204$ March 9, 1982 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills totaling approximately $9, 600 million, to be issued March 18, 1982. This offering will provide $325 million of new cash for the Treasury, as the maturing bills are outstanding in the amount of $9, 280 million, including $1, 222 million currently held by Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities and $2, 197 million currently held by Federal Reserve Banks for their own account. The two series offered are as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) for approximately $4, 800 million, representing an additional amount of bills dated June 18, 1981, and to mature June 17, 1982 (CUSIP No. 912793 7J 9), currently outstanding in the amount of $11,630 million, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills for March 18, 1982, No. 912794 BL 7). approximately and to mature $4, 800 million, to be dated (CUSIP September 16, 1982 Both series of bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing March 18, 1982. Tenders from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities will be accepted at the weighted average prices of accepted competitive tenders. Additional amounts of the bills may be issued to Federal Reserve Banks, as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities, to the extent that the aggregate amount of tenders for such accounts exceeds the aggregate amount of maturing bills held by them. The bills will be and noncompetitive issued on a discount basis under competibidding, and at maturity their par amount Both series of bills will be will be payable without interest. issued entirely in book-entry form in a minimum amount of $l0, 000 and in any higher $5, 000 multiple, on the records either of the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, or of the Department of the Tr easur y. tive Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D ~ C. 20226, up to 1:30 p .m , Eastern Standard time, Monday, March 15, 1982. Form PD 4632-2 (for 26-week series) or Form PD 4632-3 (for 13-week series) should be used to submit tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . . . Tenders over Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000 of competicase the In $10,000 must be in multiples of $5, 000 basis of on the expressed tive tenders the price offered must be be used not Fractions may 100, with three decimals, e g , 97 920 . . . . . . and dealers who make primary markets in Banking institutions Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities if the names of the may submit tenders for account of customers, Others customers and the amount for each customer are furnished Each account. own are only permitted to submit tenders for their bills in the tender must state the amount of any net long position This being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million Eastern 12:30 m information should reflect positions held as of p Such positions would include bills time on the day of the auction. acquired through "when issued" trading, and futures and forward transactions as well as holdings of outstanding bills with the same maturity date as the new offering, e .g . , bills with three months to . . . . . Dealers, who make previously offered as six-month bills markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million maturity primary . Payment for the full par amount of the bills applied . for must accompany all tenders submitted for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the difference between the par payment submitted and the actual . issue price as determined in the auction. deposit need accompany tenders from incorporated banks companies and and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches. A deposit No trust . percent of the par amount of the bills applied for must accompany tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company of 2 accompanies the tenders. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Competitive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection' of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretary's action shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500 000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on March 18, 1982, funds in cash or other immediately-available or in Treasury bills maturing March 18, 1982. Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the of discount at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax return of the owner as ordinary income. The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount is determined by multiplying such discount by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of the bill. If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer's ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gain. Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series Nos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the Public Under amount Debt. epartment of the Treasury ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2044 REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE R. T. McNAMAR DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE CALIFORNIA SAVINGS AND LOAN LEAGUE 1982 MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE DIEGO, CALIFORNIA SAN MARCH Good morning. It's a pleasure I'd like to begin Today picture of 4, 1982 my I' In low and interest by trying to paint a course, since this is to paint my picture with remarks an economic environment. and not an easel, ll have podium some words. to be here. Of a this economic environment, year after year went by with a stab3. e inflation rate, coupled with low and stable rates. The country's industrial structure had emerged from a terrible war, and was the envy of the entire increases in national income and productivity meant rising real incomes for the majority of the populace. unscathed world. Real consistently Cheap gasoline opened up more cheap land in the suburbs, helping to control housing costs. And economic growth and rising real incomes, combined with the growing families of the baby boom era, generated both the demand for more and larger houses, and the ability of more people to pay for them. of previous, less stable environments a financial that encompassed a variety of specialized institutions. Specialization was defined by law, and included restrictions on geographic, product and price competition. Out structure had developed banking was separated from commercial banking, Thrifts were restricted in banking was forbidden. activities to mortgage lending on the asset side, and to Investment and interstate their the short The end of the yield curve on the liability side. fixed rate, level payment, long-term mortgage replaced the short-term, balloon payment mortgage that had proven to be such disaster in the deflation of an earlier era. R-667 a Special tax breaks for thrifts as well as the deductibility of interest expense to mortgage holders reflected a national priority to house the baby boom generation, and to use thrift passbook savings as the means to finance that housing. Computers were developed during this period, and as they became larger and more efficient, they became more and more affordable to financial institutions. Indeed, no institution to be without one, because they were the means by which productivity improvements came to financial services and kept unit costs declining. could afford In this economic environment, thrift institutions prospered as in no other. In many years their market share of savings flows increased, and never did it seriously decline; short-term sources of funds had every appearance of being long-term; liquidity was not a problem. And with a yield curve that was sloped positively year in and year out, borrowing short from passbook savers and lending long to mortgage holders was a sure blueprint for success, particularly when unit operating costs were declining through automation, and when competition was limited by law and by regulation. this economic environment, each year and every year substantial profits. Management was handsomely compensated and the shareholders annually rewarded with dividend increases. In thrifts made Of course, have portrayed. is until and It is description a 1973 -- all recognize you the economic environment that I States, circa 1957. Indeed, the United of the America that existed from about 1948 a full quarter century of unparalleled prosperity What a wonderful time. security. There is only That environment one problem. longer no again. THE CHANGING today, The world different. and Someone exists. this is And defaced my painting. will never exist it ENVIRONMENT revelation, is radically the price of oil has And with every increase the luster of that house in the suburbs no In just the last nine years, one thousand five hundred percent. risen in the price has dimmed a Real dropped percent GNP of OPEC little growth, oil, more. to 3. 2 percent in 1980. it after averaging 4. 2 percent in the 1970s, and plunged in the 1960s, to minus 0. 2 rate of productivity growth decreased from an annual of 3. 1 percent during the first twenty years after World War II to 0. 7 percent in the 1973-80 period. America' s industrial plant, in short, is no longer the world's envy, but instead is locked in a worldwide competitive struggle for survival. The average In the latter part of the last decade, the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI) almost tripled in four years to over 12 percent in 1980. Federal spending rose from $270 billion in 1974 to 8660 billion in FY81, and now claims 23 percent of GNP almost one dollar in every four generated by our massive economy. In fact, if one adds to our Federal on-budget deficit the off-budget deficit, Federal loan guarantees, and the credit demands of state and local governments, almost one-half of all credit flows in our economy are now preempted by government. All those babies of the Demographics have also changed. baby boom generation don't require a third and fourth bedroom any longer. They need a job. Unemployment, which used to be shockingly high when it reached five percent, to stick in the area of seven to nine percent. considered seems now Today a larger proportion are opting for an apartment or townhouse close to their place of work, rather than a house in the suburbs. At today's inflated prices, and with no money to put down, and facing expensive commuting, heating and cooling costs, they couldn't afford that house even if they wanted it. Further, the parents of the baby boom generation are now aging. The medical care costs of our society as a whole therefore are rising at an unprecedented rate, as are the costs of income transfer payments from the current working generation to the retired generation, that is, social security. The external environment The U. S. no has also changed. longer possesses the preeminent military superiority that made the world of the 1950s and 1960s so relatively secure. Reclaiming some measure of the military security that was frittered away in the 1970s is thus another, and expensive, national priority. the technological environment has changed. computers, of course, have continued to advance, and this continued reduction in processing costs has been of growing as wage inflation threatened importance to financial institutions to get totally out of hand in the last decade. Finally, Mainframe However, of even greater technological importance has been the extraordinarily rapid development of mini- and micro-computers and of telecommunications. Together these two developments have brought a true revolution to the financial services industry. It is these that have made possible both automated tellers that improve the profitability of traditional depository institutions -- and also money market mutual funds and cash management accounts that in combination with inflation and Regulation Q erode their market share. Who could have handled a sweep account in 1960? 1970? Inflation provided the impetus for innovation and automation. Mini-computers and telecommunications provided means. Indeed, the pace of change is accelerating. the The result has been the de facto repeal of a whole host of statutes and regulations that attempted to protect each type of institution from competition by all the others. Glass-Steagall severed depository banking from investment banking. Mini-computers, telecommunications, and money market mutual funds packaged together in cash management accounts -- have rebridged the gap. McFadden separated banking in California from banking in New York. Mini-computers, telecommunications, and the American Express card have re-established the link. Interstate banking does take place -- just branching and deposit taking are prohibited today. Yes, the world has changed. National defense, reindustrialization and medical and old age benefits now compete directly with housing and low mortgage rates as national priorities. And we must find a way to satisfy each and balance them all. Regardless of what the law tries to establish, virtually all financial institutions now compete directly with virtually all others. And those most bound by the old laws that once seemed so protective are those most mortally threatened by the new economic, technological, and national priority environments. THE COMPETITION today's of you are only too painfully financial services environment, to show how much Most services they offer, but let change me and reintroduce has already of the players in of the wide range of a few of them to you aware taken place. competitors -- the money center banks -- offer corporate financial planning, municipal bond underwriting, business loans, credit cards, check cashing, consumer finance, travel planning nationwide, commercial loans in most states, and mortgages in multiple locations. Your Your competitor, Manufacturers bought a string of sixty-seven Oregon, and Washington. Hanover of New York, recently finance offices in California, Your competitor, Merrill services, and money Lynch, offers stock and bond underwriting, mortgages, check-writing, trust and estate Planning, real estate brokerage, personal property management relocation Your Those are only a few examples of your regulated competitors. "unregulated" competitors have even greater flexibility. Your consumer Sears, has long offered insurance and has recently acquired the nation's fifth firm, decided to establish a money market fund, competitor, It credit. largest brokerage and and management. purchased the nation's largest real estate brokerage firm. It is also the largest savings and loan holding company in the United States. Its announced intent is to become "the largest consumer oriented financial service entity". And how many of you don't have at least a Sears catalog store in your town? Your competitor, American Express, offers credit cards, cable television, securities brokerage, travelers' checks, travel planning, and cash withdrawal at airports nationwide. Your competitor, General estate loans, second mortgages, mortgage insurance Electric, is commercial leasing. leveraged and in real real estate financing, involved could get into the act. How long deregulated AT&T sells home computers in its Phone Center Stores? And how long before the combination of debit cards, telecommunications, and that home computer are put together to offer true banking in the home'? Even the do you think telephone it company will be before a A journalist recently compared the state of financial services today with the grocery business of the 1920s. Fifty years ago, butchers sold meat, green grocers sold produce, drugstores sold medicines, and other shops sold sundries. The advent of the supermarket put many of these single-service shops out of business, and substantially changed the way the remainder conducted their operation. A recent private study found perhaps an interesting parallel. The average consumer now uses over thirty financial services per year, and goes to more than a dozen financial institutions to obtain them. We are witnessing today a reasonably orderly, but extraordinarily fast-paced, change in this structure, and, as illustrated by my recitation of your competitors, the emergence services industry. Qf course, implicit of supermarkets in in the financial all these "supermarket" the recognition of the convenience importance of customer contact. strategies of one-stop shopping and the is the demise of specialized financial financial services are not cabbages, and the customer's need for specialized, individual assistance for his financial affairs will remain, and may even increase. A market for specialized institutions will continue to exist. However, financial institutions that wish to specialize should do so by choice; they should not specialize because they are required to do so by government regulation. Yet, for the last half century, that's exactly what we' ve done. Government erected seemingly countless barriers to keep the cabbages from spilling over into the tomato bin, and to keep California tomatoes from being sold in Florida and vice versa. In a changed and changing environment, that just is not possibles The regulatory walls that serve to keep competitors out under one set of circumstances serve only to keep the so-called protected hemmed in in another. am not predicting institutions: REAGANOMICS So what about are we in the Reagan Administration going all of this? We' re going to do two things. First, as Ed Meese described at length to you last to do summer, re going to do everything we can to restore more stable economic conditions in this country -- conditions of low inflation, low and stable interest rates, economic growth, and reward for work, saving and investment. Fortunately, we' re beginning to make progress in this area -- particularly in reducing inflation and interest rates. we' more stable economic conditions has been the objective of the four-part Program for Economic Recovery that Ed reviewed with you -- the slow and steady growth of the money supply to reduce inflation, the budget cuts to reduce the bloated size of the Federal Government, the incentive-oriented tax cuts to promote work, saving, and investment, and the regulatory reform program to eliminate costly and counterproductive regulations. Achieving overriding regulatory reform brings me to the second part of what Administration are going to do about all of this. We can't promise that, even after more healthy economic conditions are restored, someone else won't be elected someday who will mess it all up again. And we won't and probably couldn't promise to halt or even slow down technological change. What we can do is free all financial institutions to compete and adapt to all manner of changes in our economy, technology, or national priorities. And we in the Reagan is precisely the purpose of the legislation embodied in the so-called Garn Bill, S. 1720, and the Administration's proposal regarding financial services affiliates. We want to give thrifts the expanded asset powers that will allow them to compete with commercial banks. We want to give banks the expanded securities powers that will allow them to better compete with investment banks. And we want to give to both the liberalized liability powers that will allow them to compete with money market mutual funds. Further, we support other efforts to remove legal and regulatory barriers that inhibit the process of adjustment to economic change. Thus we support the thrusts of the Garn Bill that overturn usury laws and strengthen the enforceability of due-on-sale clauses, for example. thrust But we do not support protec'ting existing suggestions institutions that have as their from competition. main short, we believe that the safety and soundness of our system will best be served not by protecting each and every institution as it existed in 1981, but by freeing all institutions to compete and adjust in 1982 and beyond. In financial I know that some of you feel that, while the level playing field is a great idea, getting from here to there isn't going to be a very fair game, because the players are starting from very unequal positions. In particular, you feel that the thrifts are in such a weakened condition relative to the commercial banks that they cannot possibly hold their own. While that certainly may be true in a number of individual cases, I'm not so sure it will bear up under scrutiny across the board. For example, a recent study by a major consulting firm found that the impact of deregulation on commercial banks is For that industry as a whole, likely to be of major proportions. the value of the Regulation Q interest subsidy was estimated at over $40 billion in 1980. By contrast, industry earnings in that Thus, all other things being equal, year were $20 billion. complete immediate deregulation of interest rates in that year swing from $20 billion would have resulted in an industry-wide losses. billion in Clearly, the per year in profits to $20 some of them banks, too, will have to make a lot of adjustments, dramatic. probably quite the spectre of multinational banks running rampant the countryside gobbling up every thrift and bank in their paths, and ultimately ending up as the sole survivors of the deregulatory process just doesn't seem very plausible to me. Thus through Why that buy money way? To the contrary, it seems to me that all our financial institutions face the same threat, and that threat is not deregulation. The threat comes from inflation and an economy that has spiraled downhill over the last decade. Such ostensible solutions as All-Savers tax give-aways and mortgage bail-outs are not long-term solutions at all. To the extent that they increase the Federal deficit and increase the Federal role in credit allocation they are, in fact, a major part of the problem. real solution is to continue our battle to restore to our fiscal and monetary processes, and to free the industry to compete and adjust. The only integrity financial C ONC LOS I ON Success in implementing these policies will result in an economic upturn beginning in the spring, and renewed vigor for all our 'financial institutions. Already there are signs that that development. may be foretelling By the last half of the year, a very strong period of economic growth should be under way. success, however, depends very much on how the Congress are, and on the response of As I suggested management in the private sector to that program. earlier, we -- the Reagan Administration fully intend to stay the course. Long-term resolute we and intend to succeed and I believe that you, certainly as any others, have a major stake in that success. We much Thank you. as OF: TESTIMONY NARC LELAND ED ASSISTANT SECRETARY INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE: SUBCOMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS WEDNESDAY, I WELCOME TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT MY COMMENTS TO RESOLVE THOSE STATES PUT REVIEW CANADA H AND DEPTH TO OF ONE INVESTMENT R-668 AND WE HOW OF IN MIGHT THE IN OUR DONE DATE TO BETWEEN PROCEED THE ECONOMIC IN CONTEXTS RELATIONS ~ ATTEMPT TO CONTENTION LARGER RELATIONS ECONOMIC CANADIAN HAVE WE BEFORE THIS SUBCOMMITTEE THE UNITED FUTURES IT MAY WITH BE USEFUL CANADA ~ P UNITED STATES CONCERNS POLICIES STEMS ANOTHER, FLOWS S LI ISSUES ECONOMIC APPEAR TO OF WHAT ON DIMENSIONS THE S ECONOMIC ECONOMIES STATUS THIS DISCUSSION A THE FOCUS CANADA, AND TO TO WILL 10, 1982 MARCH THIS OPPORTUNITY POLICY WHICH AND THE FROM THE WITH GREAT MAGNITUDE THESE POLICIES THE OF MAY CURRENT IMPORTANCE THE TREND OF IN OUR BILATERAL TRADE JEOPARDIZE . ARE WE S TRADE FOR NEARLY U WITH TRADE WITH OF CANADA AT THE END TERMS, THE $45 BILLION, TOTALS DIRECT IT IS CLEAR TRADE IT IS ECONOMIC EFFORTS TO OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT PLAN ~ THE APPROACH ON REPRESENTS S 70X IN TOTALLED CANADA S. U INVEST QF IN STATES UNITED THE FOREIGN S TOTAL CANADA IS OF ECONOMIES A ARE STRONG ECONOMIES' SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THIS ADMINISTRATION MARKETS CORNERSTONE THE FOR OF OUR EFFORTS ARE DIRECTED AND SO CONTROL OR FOR BOTH CONCERN CAPITAL OPEN TRADE CURRENT SUCH THIS IS TO OUR INVESTMENT& AND AT FREE FLOW ECONOMIC AT ELIMINATING, REDUCING INVOLVEMENTS GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC CONTROL GOVERNMENTS 55K OR THE INTERNATIONAL BARRIERS ISSUES SPECIFICALLY CANADIAN INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS THAT MAINTAINING OUR TRUDEAU TO U INVESTMENT BETWEEN MAJOR APPROACHES COMMITTED GOVERNMENT THE EITHER SIDE TO RESTRICT ON HAVE IS CREATING, TIES THE OUR NOT S U $10 BILLION, IN RECOVERY WITH DEPENDENT MORE TRADE. DIRECT THIS REASON FOR EVEN ACCOUNTING TRADE FOREIGN ST REPRESENTS 20X OF TOTAL WHICH THAT INVESTMENT AND $77 BILLION, INVESTMENTS GOVERNMENTAL THAT TRADE 1980, S PRIVATE CANADA THUS, IS U 1980, IN ABROAD' MENTS NOW S U TOTAL CANADA S FOREIGN OF OF PARTNER TRADING EXCEEDED CANADA FIFTH ONE RELATIVE IN S LARGEST OTHER EACH OF ISSUES ADVOCATES IN GENERAL, NATIONALISM, THE A ECONOMY~ WHICH IS THE MORE AND INTERVENTIONIST TRADE AND TRANSLATES CENTRAL INVESTMENT INTO THEME OF INCREASED THE CURRENT WHILE OWNERSHIP TO IN MAKE WE IS USING MENT SEGMENTS DQ IN WORLD MENT A N'A GN TMENT CANADA THE HAVE EVEN THAT WAS IN TO PROLIFERATION OF LIBERALIZATION A FOREIGN OF CONCERN POLICY, Y. THE ESTABLISHED DIRECT APPLY THUS ACTIVITIES INVOLVE THE UNRELATED TRANSFER SERIOUS RESERVATIONS OF QF WE UNITED THE TQ BEEN HAVE THE ANADIAN FOREIGN 1973 SCREEN IN OR ESTABLSH PARENT OWNERSHIP ON FIRA CANADA CANADIANS INVEST ACQUIRE BUSINESSES, NEW EXISTING BUSINESSES TQ OF TO NQN ONE SIGNIFICANT ABOUT ( IN BETWEEN ITS DECISION INVESTMENT WHICH INVESTMENT BEFORE EXTEND TQ MERGERS F IRA BASES SUBSIDIARY' IS NEW AREAS BUSINESS ENTERPRISES, (. ANADIAN REQUIREMENTS GEN TYPES OF FOREIGN REQUIREMENTS OF ARE THE CANADIANS' V (F IRA ) SCREENING UNDERTAKE SPECIFIC ADDRESS WITH TQ ALL OR THE FLOWS INVESTMENT CANADIAN VIRTUALLY OF BY GOVERNMENTS EFFORTS TQ ACHIEVE OUR OF NUMBER REVIEW AGENCY CONTROL THESE MEASURES DISCONCERTING MORE TREND GENERAL A INVESTMENT UNDERCUTS STATES REGARDING FORE OF GOVERN CANADIAN THE WHILE EVEN CANADIAN DECISION S CANADA OF MEASURES THEY ARE INCREASE ECONOMY' THERE ARE ATTEMPTING AND NUMBER IS THAT ECONOMY A PRINCIPLE, TRADE S DESIRE TO CANADA ITS OBJECTIVES INDICATIVE THESE MEASURES THE OBJECT TO IN THEY ARE INTERVENE ITS OF TO ACHIEVE OBJECTIONABLE THAT OBJECT TQ NQT DO WE OF PRINCIPLE BENEFIT IN MANNER WHICH OUTSIDE COMPANIES A TQ F IRA (. ANADIAN CRITERION: (, ANADA. FIRA WE IS BEING ADMINISTERED, ' FIRA EXACTS LEGALLY ENFORCEABLE INVESTING IN CANADA WHICH MAY DISTORT COMMITMENTS TRADE AND FROM INVESTMENT FIRMS FLOWS ~ THESE A INCLUDE MAY CERTAIN CERTAIN SHARE INVESTMENTS NEW TORS& AND BY PROHIBITING THE FIRMS F IRA ACTION BLOCK THE DIAN A SUBSIDIARY FROM A IS DESIGNED PROVISIONS UNITED OF PROMOTE TO THAT IMPLEMENTING BY ASSETS TO FIRM TO ANOTHER ENERGY NATIONAL INCREASED OF LEAD COULD INVES (. ANADIAN CANA A THE TO THIS SPECIFIC LEGISLATION WHICH S OF CANADA CONTAINS PROGRAM INTERNATIONAL THESE PROVISIONS HAVE (NEP), PROGRAM EXPROPRIATORY' AND/OR ACCEPTED TO THE CONCERN OWNERSHIP CANADIAN IMPLEMENTING TREATMENT WE NON OF OWNERSHIP ALSO OF SERIOUS FROM ~ A RESTRICT FOREIGN CAN EXISTING FOREIGN OR NEW TRANSFER PRE DISCRIMINATORY, STATES FIRMS EXPORT TO AND DEPRESSED PRICES' AT LEGISLATION NATIONAL AS FOREIGN THE CANADIAN SIGNIFICANTLY DEPART SUCH IS SECTOR ENERGY ONE PURCHASE TO ~ SALE OF CANADIAN P A STATES UNITED TO ASSETS SALE OF FOREIGN PRODUCTION ITS REVIEW PROCESS F 1RA OF BY BLOCKING FOR GOODS AN THINGS, OTHER AMONG PRODUCTION OF CANADIAN VIRTUE HY ENTRY' (ANADI OF AMOUNT i COMMITMENTS WHICH AND PRINCIPLES' ECONOMIC WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT PROBLEMS WITH THE TWO PIECES ~ -48 OUR PROBLEMS WITH INADEQUATE IN BILL COMPENSATION OIL EXPLORATION LEASES ARROGATED THE REQUIREMENT CANADIAN LICENSE OWNED ON PROVISIONS 48, C WHICH FOR PERMITS LICENSES (AND RETROACTIVELY TO THE FIRMS CONSORTIA THAT AND FEDERAL DESIGNED OR CONTROLLED LANDS; TO ENACTED, INCLUDE: 25 PERCENT INTEREST THE AND RECENTLY WAS TO SOME) GOVERNMENT; OBTAIN BE A 50 PERCENT PRODUCTION AND ENSURE THAT (. ANADIAN SUPPLIERS CONSIDERED ARE ON SIONS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED INDUSTRIAL WHY CANADIAN HOW THE GOODS FIRM WEREN INVOLVED PLANS THE ACT (ESA), 28, AND IS EXPECTED ESA CONTAINS INCENTIVES IN THE CANADA TO TO THE BE ENACTED (PIP) ELIGIBLE ARE 25K GIVEN AND DEPLETION ALLOWANCES TO CANADIAN PERMIT CANADIAN FOR IN LI S THE AND ENERGY SECTOR. MAY PROMOTE INVESTOR THEY CONFIDENCE IN MAY PETROLEUM EXCESS OF IN CANADIAN PIP WILL REPLACE ONEROUS LEAD THAT FOREIGN AGAINST THE ~ THEIR WILL IN APPLICATION CERTAINLY COMPANIES OF IN NEASURES ~ LOSSES CANADIAN COMPANIES ON AND SHAREHOLDERS SUBSTANTIAL TO SECURITIES FIRMS' FLOWS PROVISIONS THESE PROVISIONS ACT SHAREHOLDERS ( ANADA THE MEET CERTAIN THE SPILLOVER EFFECTS CAPITAL THE MONTH- FIRMS OPERATING INCENTIVES THESE CORPORATIONS FOREIGN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OF OTHER IT ALSO APPEARS HAVE A FEBRUARY ON INCLUDING FORCE MINORITY MINORITY' FOREIGN SECTORS, PARTICULARLY THESE DISTORT IN TO WITHIN SECURITY FIRMS' ALL THESE PROVISIONS OTHER THESE PROVISIONS TO NUMBER A IF CRITERIA AVAILABLE CORPORATIONS OF PIP, ONLY CONTROL SELL THEIR HOLDINGS IMPLEMENTATION AND CANADIAN THE ENERGY PARLIAMENT MEASURES, BUSINESS CORPORATIONS THE CANADA PROJECT FUTURES LAW RECEIVE FEDERAL THE ESA ALSO CONTAINS TO INTO THE uNDER COMPANIES TO ALL OWNERSHIP AMENDING CANADIAN SEVERAL DISCRIMINATORY PROGRAM A THAT LEGISLATION, IMPLEMENTING OF INTRODUCED WAS ENSURE THE IN FOR ) PIECE OTHER TO NEGAPROJECT ON WILL DETERMINE WHICH PURCHASED T SUPPLIERS ARE CONSIDERED ( THESE PROVI BY THE COMMITTEE BENEFITS, REGIONAL AND BASIS COMPETITIVE A OTHER SUCH AS WILL NOT 0. S- THE POLICIES' WE AND/OR STATES ACTIONS AFFECT 0~S RECOVERY ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE IN INDUCING 0NITED STATES THE POLICIES IN HAS BILATERALLY' PURSUED ITS INTERESTS, IN SYSTEMS INTERESTS OUR 0NITED THE IN THE AND PROBABLY WOULD AND A NOT BE POLICIES' CONCERNS WITH CANADIAN FORA; OF NUMBER A INVESTMENT CANADIAN DIFFERENT OF NUMBER A IN IN NATIONAL ECONOMIC NATIONAL PROGRAM, CHANGES 0-S TO INTERNATIONAL THE RESTRICT FOREIGN TO THESE POLICIES TO BE DETRIMENTAL WOULD ADVERSELY WOULD DOMESTIC WHICH RESPOND CANADIAN WITH EXTREMELY CONCERNED TO WANT JEOPARDIZE WOULD VIEWS ANY NOT DO HOWEVER, WAYS IS 6OVERNMENT LEVEL CONSULTATIONS HIGH HAVE OCCURRED' NULT ILATERALLYp AT RA ON A WITH CONSULTATIONS BASIS, THE THESE CONSULTATIONS NOT SUFFICIENT' THE NEP OF THE TRADE AND FIRA THE DOMESTIC UNDER CONCERNS LAW, ACT 60VERNMENT ARE WE ~ 0. S THEIR CONCERNS OF PRODUCED HAVE WE ADMINISTRATION THE IN THE OECD CANADA SOME HAS REGARDING CHANGES EXTENSIVE HELD ITS POLICIES BUT THEY ACTIONS, ARE CONSIDERING INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ACTION ~ CLEARLY ARE PRESSING FOR FURTHER MODIFICATIONS IN THEREFORE, UNDER SECTION 301 ~ GOVERNMENT REGARDING 0 T V 7HE OUR V BILATERAL AND RAISED INITIATIVES' WILL BRIEFLY REVIEW THESE t A HAVE THE GATT. AND B WE p AS WELL CANADA AS D OTHER S TRADE AND COUNTRIES, INVESTMENT HAVE EXPRESSED POLICIES BOTH THE GATT THE AND OECD ARTICLE XXII CONSULTATIONS REQUIREMENTS ASSOCIATED XXIII, ARTICLE UNDER SPECIFIC THE GATT OUT IN CANADIAN TRADE DISCRIMINATORY XXII CONSULTATIONS HAVE ON TUTED WHICH MANNERS THE NEP INITIATED RELATED CASE A ITS OBLIGATIONS WHETHER UNDER ARE CARRIED NEP INITIATING WILL CONSIDER WE PERFORMANCE CONSIDER WOULD OF THE HELD AND PREPARING ARE PANEL IF CERTAIN ASPECTS EARLIER, BY THE CANADIAN WE GATT A ARTICLE ~ RAISED THESE ISSUES ALSO AS MENTIONED OECD FIRA- THE PRACTICES VIOLATE ADDITION, IN A WE UNDER WE RESPECT TO TRADE WITH WITH GATT, THE IN ~ BELIEVE WE THAT OF INST I TREND GENERAL A THE IN THESE MEASURES INDICATIVE ARE GOVERNMENT SEVERAL OCCASIONS ON USERS INTERVENE, IN TRADE BY GOVERNMENTS TO DISCRIMINATORY REQUIREMENTS' PRACTICES& AND THEREFORE, WE THE OECD, TRADE AND ULTIMATELY COMMITTEE PLEASED WITH INITIATE TO ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS' INVESTMENT DISCIPLINE SOME INCENTIVES WORK THE ON IMPOSED EXAMINATION STUDY A THERE RECENT BY APPLYING NEEDS TO BE OF THESE BY THE IN PERFORMANCE THE AND ISSUES BY THE OECD RELATED THIS SUBJECT WILL ALSO BE DONE THEIR ON AGREEMENT TRADE ON FLOWS EFFECT OF THESE TYPES OF OF THE PRESSED FOR FURTHER WERE OPINIONS OUR CONSIDERATION INTERNATIONAL MORE IN INVESTMENT AND ISSUE OF INVESTMENT OECD COMMITTEES IN ADDITION, SEPTEMBER OF 1981 THE GATT TRADE-RELATED THE MEASURES COMPARABLE NEGOTIATIONS' THAT TO THE THE GATT PERFORMANCE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROPOSED GOVERNMENT MEETINGS INVESTMENT STARTING ROUND lJ-S. NTB OF AN THE uNDERTAKE REQUIREMENTS EXHAUSTIVE INVENTORY AT MARCH A DEVELOPED SYSTEMATIC AND LISTING FOR AND STUDY INCENTIVESJ OF THESE THE TOKYO THERE ARE COMI NG AT MONTHS DISCUSSION INCLUDE JUNE, AND WH I PRACTICES BUT IT IS A RELATIONS GATT ADOPTION THI S OBJECT I VE INTEND DEVELOPED WORK DISCRIMINATORY AND TQ REVEW DEAL WOULD WOULD PROVIDE NEGOTIATION OF THE p WE ARE SUCH ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE THIS OBJECTIVE BASIS TO WHICH FOR MULTILATERAL SUPPORT HAVE AND ORDER IN TQ AT THESE MEETINGS TO INITIATE INCLUDES OF HOW INVESTMENT PROCEEDING FOR A OUR RELATED SUMMIT INITIATIVE ~ INCLUDED 6ATT MIGHT POLICIES WITH THE RQADN ON TO ~ AT THE REVIEW QF MAJOR POLICIES THE RULES OF THE ECONOMIC MINISTERS AGREE THE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS RELATED BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO RULES OF THE ROAD COUNTRY DISTORTfNG AN INTERNATIONAL OF IT IS TIME THAT RULES HAVE ~ HOPE PROGRAM BE TRADE WITH ON AREA USE THE OECD t1 IN I STER I AL AND TO MINI STER IAL OF OUR ~ AGREEMENT A THIS IN THE POLICIES S EMPLOYS WHICH A PRACTICES AND t. ANADA NG ~ SUMMIT VI EWr OUR MULTILATERAL EVERY OTHER BASIS EFFECTIVE BEGIN TO GENERATE THE POLICIES COUNTRY AND BELIEVE HE THESE PRACTICES TOWARDS WE THE ONLY VI RTUALLY IN WILL BE TQ REACH WORK IN THIS ISSUE. INSTITUTIONS MULTILATERAL CONTROL NOT THE ECONOMIC NAY, IN NOVEMBER IN PRACTICES DISCRIMINATORY AND OPEN I IN LEAD THE TO TAKE THE IN ~ BEEN DEVELOPED ON PLANS INVESTMENT ESCALATE TO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC S~ POLICY EGREGIOUS IT ESSENTIAL EXEMPLARY' ~ MINISTERIAL THE GATT OF lJ OECD NINI STERIAL THE PROLIFERATION MAKE THE CH MEETINGS LEVEL MULTILATERAL HIGH OF NUMBER INVESTMENT OF THESE A THIS BE STRENGTHENED WORK DEVELOPMENT FOR IN PROGRAM AND INVESTMENT ~ ARE AT THE 60VERNMENT FOREIGN TIME PUZZLING SAME OF ALSO QUESTIONED FOREIGN POINTED THE OFF AN THE 60VERNMENT ARE IN OF CANADA, DISCRIMINATORY AT THE HIGHEST TO THE 6ATT PERFORMANCE INVESTMENT THAT 0. S WELCOMES CANADA INTERESTS THEY ARE, AS HAS WE ( ANADIAN TO THE VERY HARMFUL HAVE ECONOMY' DECIDED THAT THESE POLICIES IS SERIOUSLY DISTURBED IN ADDITION, REQUIREMENTS PRACTICES BILATERALLYJ RESOLVE OUR POLICIES' WE HAVE LEVELS IN BILATERAL MEETINGS. PROBLEMS VIGOROUSLY TO NDI CATE HOWEVER, INVESTMENT BE UNDERTAKEN CANADA I HAVE PUBLIC SAME THE AT ECONOMY AN THEIR BEST INTERESTS' THIS ADMINISTRATION WORK HARM POTENTIALLY ALSO S METHODS ALS t. ANADI OF THE ATTRACT TO ~ THESE POLICIES OUT, I CI ITS DESIRE ABOUT ELEMENTS GOVERNMENT BY (-ANADI INVESTMENT WHILE CERTAIN ~ BUT US CONCERN, POLICIES BEING ENACTED BY THE THE ~ RAISE QUESTIONS CANADA INVESTMENT STATEMENTS POLICIES CLEARLY CAUSE INVESTMENT CANADIAN IN IN IN AND THE THE AND HAVE WE WE OTHER OECO GATT NE RAISED NE FURTHER TAKEN' CANADA WORK TRADE WILL PROPOSE THAT WILL CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE FORAi TO PURSUE AS WELL& S CONCERNS OUR HAVE DISCRIMINATORY AND MULTILATERAL DIFFERENCES INITIATED BY CANADA ON AND SIMILAR TO WORK WITH THESE IN AN EFFORT ~epartNent of the Treasiiry ~ Washington, FOR RELEASE AT O.C. ~ Telephone S66-204f 4:00 P. M. TREASURY TO AUCTION TOTALING March 2-YEAR $9, 000 AND 10, 1982 4-YEAR NOTES MILLION The Department of the Treasury will auction $5, 250 million of 2-year notes and $3, 750 million of 4-year notes to refund $6, 037 million of notes maturing March 31, 1982, and to raise $2, 963 million new cash. The $6, 037 million of maturing notes are those held by the public, including $335 million of maturing 2-year notes and $356 million of maturing 4-year 1-month notes currently held by Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities. In addition to holdings, tFie public Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for their own accounts, million of the maturing', hotes«that may be refunded additional a~aunts pg. . the new, notes at the average prices of accepted competitive tenderS. Additional amounts of the 'new securities may' also. be issued at the average prices to-:Federal Reserve Banks as agents for' foreign and international . monetary authorities, to 'the extent that their aggregatetenders for each of the new notes exceed their aggregate holdings of each of the maturing notes. hold $888 by issuing - "-' ~ Details about the new securities highlights of the offerings offering circulars. attached Attachment o0o R-669 are given in the in the official and HIGHLIGHTS OF TREASURY OFFERINGS TO THE PUBLIC OF 2-YEAR AND 4-YEAR NOTES TO BE ISSUED MARCH 31, 1982 iount Offered: public. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5, 250 million . scription of Security: . . . . .2-yeares notes Term and type of security. . . . . . . .Serj. Q-l'984 Series and CUSIP designation To the (CUSIP No. 912827 .March Naturity date. . . . . . ~. . . Call date. . . . . . . . . . . . . rate. . . yield. . . . . . . coupon NZ 2) 31, 1984 .No provision .To be determined ~ Interest based on the average of accepted bids .To be determined" at auction Investment after auction .To be determinedand March . . Premium or discount. . 31 30 September . dates. Interest payment 000 . . ailable $5, av denomination Minimum Terms of Sale: Nethod of sale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Yield Auction Accrued interest payabl .None by investor. . . . . . . . . . . . bid for .Noncompetitive Preferred allotment. . . . 000 or less ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ $1,000, Payment by investors. non-institutional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Full with ~ ~ ~ Deposit guarantee by designated institutions. Key Dates: Deadline for receipt of payment tender 10, 1982 $3, 750 million ~ ~ March to be submitted . . . . . . . . . . . .Acceptable tenders. . . . . .Wednesday, Narch 17, by 1:30 p. m. , EST 4-year notes Series G-1986 (CUSIP No. 912827 Narch 31, 1986 No provision NA 6) determined based on the average of accepted bids at auction To be determined after auction determined be To September 30 and March 31 To be $1,000 Yield Auction None Noncompetitive $1,000, 000 or Full payment with tender bid for less to be submitted Acceptable ~ 1982, date (final payment f rom institutions) March 31, 1982 a) cash or Federal funds. ~. . . . . . . . ..Wednesday, March 29, 1982 Monday, . . . . check. . b) readily collectible Delivery date for coupon securities .Wednesday, April 7, 1982 Wednesday, March 24, by 1:30 p. m. , EST 1982, Settlement due ~ Narch 31, 1982 Monday, March 29, 1982 Wednesday, April 14, 1982 Wednesday, epartment of the Treasury FOR RELEASE UPON ~ Washlnoton, O.C. ~ Telephorle 556.2041 DELIVERY Expected at 7:30 P. M. , Thursday, March 11, 1982 ADDRESS BY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY . T REGAN' BEFORE THE DONALD FINANCIAL NEW WORLD DINNER CITY, NEW, YORK MARCH 1 1 1 982 YORK . It is good . to be back in New York among so many friends. left the f inancial world and gone to the nation' s Capitol, can tell you that my new job is really much easier than yours. Having I we have to do in Washington' is get interest rates down, recession, pay off a trillion dollar. -debt, and find out who takes notes. at Al Haig''s staff meetings. I do have one advantage that Al doesn' t. I know where my critics are: on Wall Street, on the record, and on television. It's getting so the two most valued qualifications' for a good All end the analyst are an MBA-. from Harvard. and makeup from Elizabeth Arden. Nevertheless, there is a very legitimate debate going on in this country about the economy. Most would say it was sparked by the recession and ignited by the Administration'e, fiscal 1983 budget. Perhaps so, in the short term. But in the long term it was sparked by the people . of this c'ountry who said in the last election they had had enough short term economic thinking. They asked for' a recovery program that would reduce inflation, reduce interest rates and get us moving toward sustained economic growth. The President responded to that challenge. And I believe we are on a soundly constructed course to realize those objectives. Tonight I want to discuss one of the elements of the President's program that is crucial to achieving real non-inflationary growth. It also goes to the heart of our short-term debate. That issue is money and monetary policy. I realize that talking to this audience about the basics of money is a little like talking to the New York Yankees about how to hit a baseball. But I also know that within the last two weeks we have seen some heavy hitters from a variety of chief . R-670 executive suites express some rather harsh views about deficit interest rates. So let's go back to basics for a momentFirst, 'the basics' is where the truth is. And secondly' there is a lingering, serious misunderstanding among many people about the role of money and monetary policy. and Paul Volcker testified last me give you one example. It was an open before the House Banking Committee. hearing, with written copies of the testimony available to anyone who wanted them. The following morning the Washington Post account of the hearings was headlined (front page) "Fed Plans to the New York Times Ease Monetary Policy. " Simultaneously, headline, based on the same hearing was, "Volcker Says Fed Plans to Continue Tight Money Stand. " Is it any wonder people are Let month confused about what The monetary is going on along the Potomac? policy of this Administration inflation is fundamentally -- First, a situation which cannot persist basic ideas. rests on two a monetary without excessive Second, the rate of monetary expansion is the result of the actions of the Federal Reserve. Within this framework, the task of monetary policy is simple and achieve and maintain a steady moderate rate of straightforward: money growth. phenomenon money growth. to emphasize this point -- the correct monetary is absolutely necessary for reducing inflation and less policy inflation is absolutely necessary for achieving the full I want potential of the economic recovery program. The most important requirement is that the Federal Reserve not back away from its efforts to reduce the trend of money Monetary finetuning -- aimed either at driving interest growth. rates down or boosting output and employment -- must be avoided. I hear a growing chorus of recommendations from some segments of the economic profession that we need an "easier" monetary policy to stave off the recession. Those critics would have us return to the very type of policy which helped greatly to create the problem of stagflation. We must not again lose sight of the fact that money is not a substitute for economic incentives. Money is not the football game, it is only the ticket into the stadium. What is truly important in an economy are the real assets: the real property, the capital and, most important, the human resources: the creativity, dedication and plain hard work of the men and women who make the economy go. Money exists to provide a consistent measure of the value of their real resources and their It facilitates trade and ultimately outputs. productivity of human resources. "Money, " as Henrik Ibsen once wrote, increases the "may be the husk of kernels " things, but not the Past policy failures reflected efforts to substitute money for real goods. And those failures were based on the logical fallacy that since money represents goods, more money means more many goods. Despite recent financial between despite the principally innovations, the fundamental And and economic activity has not changed. determined innovations, money growth is by the actions of the Federal Reserve Board. money still link also central feature of the monetary policy of this -- I'm sure you have heard this a thousand times is that we want a slow, steady growth in the money supply. The Administration In an ideal world, the supply of money should expand at the same rate at which the real economy is expanding' Money growth throughout the entire term of the Carter Administration was not only too rapid but too erratic, and it brought us high inflation and interest rates. The key words in this are moderate and ~stead Administration The Administration agrees with and supports the Federal Reserve Board's announced target ranges for both 1981 and this year. Our support for their stated objective is complete and unequivocal. If there have been disagreements they are emphatically not over policy. The disagreements -- to the extent that there have been any -- have arisen when actual money growth strayed for several months either significantly above or below those ranges. When the markets see an accelerating money growth pattern, When they increase interest rates to cover for future inflation. the markets see the money supply shoot up and don't know if they are seeing a pattern or not, they raise interest rates even That's where the uncertainty to cover for the unknown. comes in. In spite of the recent upward movement, the basic policy is yielding, and will continue to yield, lower interest rates. Clearly, many observers do not agree. Now why is there such a lack of consensus even on the basic direction that interest rates will head? I think there are two reasons. First, there is a difference of opinion over the relative power of market forces. further premium Our critics believe, I think, that the level of interest rates will be forced up by a forthcoming expansion of the demand for credit colliding with an alleged restriction of supply by the Federal Reserve. After all, they reason, we are talking about the largest deficits in history -- they must have a large effect. According to this argument, big borrowing by the government puts upward pressure on interest rates. Economic growth produces corporate demand for loans for business expansion -- which also puts upward pressure on interest rates. And if you have big government deficits and economic expansion -- as we will have t»s year -- then you will supposedly get a double whammy effect on credit demand. If you add to this the popular notion that the Fed is keeping credit tight, you can see why some believe that interest rates will go through the roof. to be saying that it is the law of demand to A greater supply and demand that is controlling. -borrow money when its supply is being held in check -- will supposedlyespecially result in a higher price for the money. And the price of money, it is often said, is interest. All that sounds very compelling. But it is wrong. So what is the case for declining interest rates? Our case, it turns out is based on Adam Smith -- the part in his book where he says people would rather make money than lose money. Interest rates consist of three parts: the real rate, the inflation premium and an uncertainty premium. Deficits, if they are very large, tend to put upward pressure on the real rate which has historically been around 3-4 percent; this effect, however, is slight. Of more consequence is the inflation premium. If a lender thinks the rate of inflation will be lower in the future, he can reduce his overall rates and still expect to make a buck. Today, slow, steady money growth and declining inflation are putting strong downward pressure on the other two This argument appears components. There is unquestionably pressure pushing rates both ways. But the downward pressure is much stronger than the upward prcssure' If it rains over there in the East River it will tend to raise the level of the river. But if the tide is running out, the level of the water will drop no matter how hard it rains. It's a question of which force is predominant. Now if the argument forget theory for in the abstract leaves you cold, and look at history. a moment, let' s In the Fall of 1975, as post-recession real economic growth gaining speed, interest rates moved up for a few weeks. However, the Fed maintained a steady hand on the tiller: growth in money compared to growth in output was slower over much of 1976 than in 1975. was Fall And and what happened? As into the following the economy continued to grow that year, inflation continued to go down. This was a period, deficits: please remember, billion in Fiscal year '76. of large Federal A deficit which, as a than the deficit projected for this year. And yet there was solid economic growth. And as inflation was declining to 5 percent, interest rates continued their downward trend. Not until late 1976 did rates move up. Because not until late 1976 was money growth increased sharply. percentage I 66 of GNp is larger to downplay the significance of the budget I want to put it in perspective. We see the projected deficits as a sign os a serious lack of discipline on the part of government. Certainly, growth in government spending represented by the deficit crowds out the private sector. The underlying problem is the enormous amount of resources which flow to or through the government. Restoring the potential of the economy requires that we attack the deficit problem at its source the growth of government spending. do not mean deficit. Instead, Today, the market place has become very astute in analyzing the actions and intentions of the Fed. It sees very clearly the cause and effect relationship between money supply, inflation and -- what you might call the "eternal infernal interest rates " One leads to the other which leads to the other. triangle. Now, the market doesn't even bother to wait for the middle step: visible inflation. Instead, as soon as weekly reports of high come money growth out, interest rates -- immediately -- move up. That is exactly what began to happen a few months ago. not one -- where there has been sustained high inflation and moderate, stable growth in the And, the other half of the picture is that there money supply. has never been an economy which has -- over any length of time had high interest rates and low inflation. There is no example The second reason in history why -- there is disagreement direction of interest rates has to do with of therefore critical -- misunderstanding is not credit. someone believes that inflation and credit, he would also believe policy would have to anti-inflationary money and credit. If money over the future a fundamental what money is -- not. and It is caused by excessive an effective that restrict the supply of many people view our monetary policy as an Unfortunately, And, of course, they see a conflict: that. attempt to do just the supply of credit while the restricting the Fed is seen as When in credit demand. increase an represents budget deficit is obvious result the increases, demand and supply declines prices rise. But, you see, the argument ends up wrong because it starts Unless The Fed is dealing with the supply of money. out wrong. -nor neither we the which monetized is deficit the budget Federal Reserve intends -- it affects for credit. only the demand is not inflationary. Let me put it this way: More money does not credit and less money does not mean less credit. in credit Growth mean more The tax cut element of the President's program was designed specifically to increase savings -- that is, real credit -- and thereby expand the economy's ability to supply more goods. And this has already started to happen. We are projecting that the increase in total private savings from last year to this year will be in the neighborhood of $60 billion and that the savings pool will grow by some $250 billion by 1984. It that Federal borrowing this year, off-budget financing, will consume 22 percent of total funds raised in the credit market. This compares, by the way, with 1975 when government borrowing constituted 42 percent: A year when interest rates were declining. including end. has been projected In summary, we must view monetary policy, as a means to an -- is to get And the end -- the goal of this Administration real growth Let me up and inflation and interest rates down. conclude with a very simple analogy. Ask yourself Does eating food make children grow? Think about this question: that for just a moment. tend to think that the answer is yes. But it does not that way. As the body develops, it demands food to replace the expended energy and perpetuate the on-going growth. Stuffing a kid with too much food doesn't make him grow faster; it makes him sick. Similarly, injecting a lot of money into an economy We work does not make Economies, it grow faster. like people, have a natural tendency toward self-correction. Money exists to follow and facilitate that activity; not to make it happen. The course we have charted requires discipline and courage on the part of all of us. But, believe me, it is the only course which will lead to sustained lowering of interest rates. creative growth and toward Sound public policy can come from the government. But real economic growth can only come from the private sector. And that of those of you in business. l eads to the responsibility Recently we have heard from the Business Roundtable and CEO's about the need to raise taxes. They even suggested other that we might want to raise individual tax rates and keep the cuts for business. That's not exactly the kind of big-picture thinking that will engender much support from the American people. Nor does it hold much water with me. Now business leaders to show strength, not timidity; not parochial interests. is the time for statesmanship, economy, the most massive and complex in the You can' t one of those million-ton oil tankers. on a dime, or slam on the brakes if they are off But the captain on the Our economy is the same way. has signalled the turn, the rudder has been moved, the room is operating under a new set of commands, and I The American world, resembles turn them around course. bridge engine believe the economy will respond. I will be the first to admit that when you' re sitting in a corporate management seat today, the view is bleak. Unemployment is up. Sales and profits are down. And when managers start to lose money, they ask what national policies can be changed to help rewrite their profit and loss sheets. That's a legitimate question. But its a little like schedule. Yet the minute shout, "We' re in a slump, the baseball team that has a 162 game they lose three in a row, the fans bench the pitchers and fire the coach. " That's the short term thinking that has prompted some professional critics to start shouting, "depression. " That kind of fire-in-the-theatre language is just plain irresponsible. community should not forget the free enterprise Don't forget that if which our program is based. in your economic business, means you want less government putting more of your business in the economy of the country. The principles business upon it It also means helping Congress get on with the job of passing the President's budget, cutting Federal spending, and giving the country some assurance that our program will be enacted. Flailing at windmill will short-sighted attempts business tax incentives. deficits will not get them to sacrifice the economic down. and Nor And neither will reneging on the personal tax cuts, hoping that the increased revenue will wipe out the deficit. On the face of it this seems like common sense. But it won't be used that way. We' ve got to recall what Columbus told Isabella: "Common sense tells you that the world is flat. " That kind of common sense doesn't work in the Washington environment where Congress tends to keep its spending up to the level of your taxes. Lest we forget, in 1980 tax revenues increased by $54 billion. Did that mean the money was used to eliminate the deficit. No. Congress found ways, as it will find ways, to spend that. money. In 1980, instead of a shrinking deficit, we had one of our largest deficits in history. always government way to end deficits is controlling not tax on the one hand„ and increasing revenues rates, but tax revenues as a result of expanded economic activity. And that is precisely the program that this The spending right -- -- Administration is pursuing. of the deficit is a transition problem caused by the should improve as the economy recovers. Nevertheless, government spending is the root cause. And I would personally support the idea that, over time, we should require a balanced budget forcing the Administration and Congress to reduce Federal spending and limit the growth in tax revenues. Nuch recession, and it That's the course budget. we' re taking today in the President's It is a budget that accommodates the need for a defense. It meets our compassionate social And it restores trust in the integrity of government. not quibbling about this or that percentage, this or line item, is what it is all about. national strong commitments. That, and that budget We are on our way toward gaining a treasure beyond value: currency and an economic policy we can trust, not one that, because of cynicism linked to lack of imagination, seeks once again to corrupt our system by perverting its economic and psychological foundation. no mistake about it, ladies and gentlemen, we are for high stakes in this budget and in this economic policy. The stakes are nothing less than the survival of a free Nake playing economic system. Now is the time for strength and courage in seeing that we are successful -- and that we move on to the lasting prosperity our economic system can provide. Thank you. a !Partment oy the treasury FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Nashincl RELEASE ton, D.C. CONTACT: 11, 1982 March ~ TelePhone 566-2D4' George G. Ross (202) 566-2041 STEVEN R. LAINOFF APPOINTED ASSOCIATE INTERNATIONAL TAX COUNSEL of the Treasury today announced the appointment of Steven R. Lainoff as Associate International Tax Counsel and Associate Director of the Office of International Tax Affairs. The appointment was effective as of March 1, 1982. The Department Prior to joining the Treasury in January 1981, Mr. Lainoff was with the New York law firm of Coudert Brothers, and was an Adjunct Assistant Professor of Law at the New York University School of Law, Graduate Tax Program. Tax Counsel, Mr. Lainoff As Associate International will assist International Tax Counsel Alan Winston Granwell in the formulation of policy, legislation, and regulations tax matters, including the taxation of on international foreign source income of U. S. taxpayers, the taxation of foreigners receiving income from U. S. sources, and the tax evasion. prevention of international Office of International Tax Counsel is one of three under the Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy. other units are the Office of Tax Legislative Counsel the Office of Tax Analysis. The major units The and native of New York City, Mr. Lainoff received his B.A. degree from Boston University in 1974; his D. in 1977 from the University of Arizona School of Law; and his LL. M in Taxation in 1978 from the New York University School of A Law. R-671. J. epattmeni of ice TIeasury o Washington, D.C. FOR 'RELEASE AT 12:00 NOON ~ Telephone S66-2041 March 12, 1982 TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for approximately $5, 250 million, of 364-day Treasury bills to be dated and to mature March 25, 1982, March 24, 1983 (CUSIP No. 912794 CA 0). This issue will provide about $575 million new cash for the Treasury, as the maturing 52-week bill was originally issued in the amount of $4, 684 million. The bills will be issued for cash and bills maturing March 25, 1982. in exchange for In addition to the maturing 52-week bills, there are $9, 255 million of maturing bills which were originally issued as 13-week and 26-week bills. The disposition of this latter amount will be announced next week. Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities currently hold $1, 961 million, and Federal Reserve Banks for their own account hold $3, 110 million of the maturing bills. These amounts represent the combined holdings of such accounts for the three issues of maturing bills. Tenders from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities will be accepted at the weighted Additional amounts average price of accepted competitive tenders. of the bills may be issued to Federal Reserve Banks, as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities, to the extent that the aggregate amount of tenders for such accounts exceeds the aggregate amount of maturing bills held by them. For purposes of determining such additional amounts, foreign and international million monetary authorities are considered to hold $ 502 of the original 52-week issue. Treasury bills will be issued on a discount basis under competinoncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their par amount This series of bills will be will be payable without interest. issued entirely in book-entry form in a minimum amount of $10,000 and in any higher $5, 000 multiple, on the records either of the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, or of the Department of the tive The and Tr e as ur y. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D. C. 20226, up to 1:30 p. m. , Eastern Standard time, Thursday, Form PD 4632-1 should be used to submit 18, 1982. tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury. March p-672 . Each tender must be for a minimum of $10, 000 Tenders over $10 &000 must be in multiples of $5, 000 . In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with three decimals, e .g . , 97 .920 . Fractions may not be used . Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities may submit tenders for account of customers, if the names of the Others customers and the amount for each customer are furnished are only permitted to submit tenders for their own account. Each tender must state the amount of any net long position in the bills being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million . This information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p .m . Eastern time on the day of the auction . Such positions would include bills acquired through "when issued" trading, and futures and forward transactions' Dealers, who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million. . Payment for the full par amount of the bills applied for accompany all tenders submitted for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the difference between the par payment submitted and the actual issue price as must . determined No in the auction . deposit need accompany tenders from incorporated banks trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches . A deposit of 2 percent of the par amount of the bills applied for must, accompany tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company accompanies the and tenders . Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids . Competitive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretary's action shall be final . Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for $500, 000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids . Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of Federal Reserve Banks. and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on March 25, 1982, funds in cash or other immediately-available or in Treasury bills maturing March 25, 1982 ' Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value' of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the of discount at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section l232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax return of the owner as ordinary income. The acquisition discount is the excess of the. stated redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount Under amount is determined by multiplying such discount by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer 's date of purchase to the maturity of the bill If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer 's ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gain. Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series Nos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the Public ~ Debt. lepartmeni of the Treasury ~ wash}noton, O.C. ~ Telephone 566-204% STATEMENT OF R. T. McNAMAR DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, NUTRITION AND FORESTRY UN1TED STATES SENATE MARCH 12, 1982 to discuss the welcome this opportunity the Polish financial and economic situation export lending activities and the Commodity Credit Corporation's with you and other members of the Committee. MR. CHAIRMAN: relationship between I for the record the we have already submitted to the questions you posed in preparation for these I have attached those questions and answers to this hearings. statement. Therefore, in my prepared statement, I will elaborate on two of the major points of your concern. As you know, answers I like to begin on the reasons why the by commenting declare Poland to in default at, not has chosen this time. There has been considerable confusion and . misunderstanding in the press and elsewhere regarding this would Administration decision. of martial law in Poland on and other official creditors decided to take the following initial steps to bring financial pressure to bear on the military government of Poland: (1) Government credits and export guarantees, except those of a humanitarian nature, were terminated; (2) 1982 Polish debt rescheduling discussions were indefinitely suspended; and (3) official creditors insisted that Poland meet its 1982 obligations as they fall due and pay up the arrearages on the 1981 obligations that were not previously rescheduled during 1981. Subsequent December R-673 to the imposition 13, 1981, the United States U. S. has also taken 1982 fishing Poland's have suspended We of additional a number waters. steps: rights in U. S. have halted the renewal of the U. S. Export-Import Bank's line of credit insurance to Poland. We have held We the shipment up have suspended in the U. S. We of surplus Polish civil aviation dairy products. landing rights taking these steps we instituted a process so that money flowing from poland to the west rather than the West to Poland as was the case during the last several years. By adhering to a policy of insisting on repayment while not providing any new funds -- the private lenders have also severely curtailed lending to Poland -- we are creating a situation that maintains financial pressure on the Polish military regime and through them on th'e USSR. is By now Some have argued that. a formal declaration of default would serve to curtail financial credit to Poland. There are no credits going to Poland at, this time, and some of the other Soviet bloc countries, which are experiencing serious economic and financial problems, are finding it increasingly difficult to borrow. Although a formal declaration of default would not affect Poland's le al obli ation to repay its debts to U. S. lenders, the Polish government could attempt to avoid paying U..S. lenders. In turn, this would make scarce hard currency available to pay for additional imports which they otherwise could not purchase. suggested that the United States 'should declare in default of its obligations and satisfy these Some have Poland obligations by attaching its assets. the United States could attempt to recover some of the loaned Poland in this way there are, however, virtually In fact, the court costs involved in such an no Polish assets. effort might even exceed the value of the property attached. While funds it In short, we for an approach that is draining rather than taking what would essentially And, by not declaring Poland in default have opted resources out of Poland gesture. to insist on their meeting their obligations, we are also indirectly bringing additional financial pressure to the real instigator of the repressive bear on the Soviet Union As a result of not declaring a default, the regime in Poland. be a symbolic and continuing — Soviets are now pressured to provide additional economic resources to keep the Polish economy f unctioning at some minimally acceptable level and to assist the Poles in meeting their hard currency debt service payments to avoid further damage to Poland, other bloc countries, and the Soviet Union. I will briefly on the CCC export guarantee offer to U. S. banks that has also been the subject of much discussion. When an exporter enters into a guarantee contract with CCC, CCC becomes legally obligated to make payments to the exporter or its assignee bank in the event the foreign importer's bank. fails to meet its payment obligations. This obligation is similar to that undertaken in other U. S. Government loan guarantee programs such as the Export-Import Bank's Financial Guarantee Program for program and now comment on CCC's exports of manufactured goods. In order for the holder of the guarantee to collect from CCC, the holder must first ~notif CCC that a payment has been missed and then file a claim together with the necessary supporting documentation. Once the holder of the guarantee has filed its claim with CCC, CCC must then pay the The holder then transfers to holder the amount of the guarantee. borrower is in no wa the identical amount. payments . remaining and it relieved Only now of an it obli ation must pay CCC continue paying the guarantee as they fall due. must. payments I would also like to emphasize -as has been alleged -- that that these the CCC is banks. The banks were certain of being paid. the credits involved. In the absence of Polish mean is obligated to honor its guarantees. —it still owes for the missed holder the do not out the The CCC guaranteed payments, the CCC payments bailing refer to the notice document as a Although CCC regulations "notice of default, " it in fact is simply a notice of nonpayment. It does not constitute a formal declaration by the holder of the or by the. U. S. Government that the foreign bank is in declaration of default in a loan agreement involves triggering specific penalty provisions of the loan agreement, including declaring the entire debt to be immediately due and payable, and perhaps increasing the rate of interest charged on the outstanding balance due. A formal declaration may also entitle the loan holder to seize the debtor's assets in an attempt to satisfy the debt. guarantee default. typically A formal point to be made is that although the underlying credit. agreement the exporter has with the foreign bank may permit the exporter to declare a formal default in the event of missed payment, CCC does not ~re uire the guarantee holder to declare a formal default in order to trigger CCC's liability. simply requires prompt. notice that a payment has been missed to exercise its obligation to honor its guarantee. The key The January obligations it 28 offer of CCC to had made to exporters (or the assignee Poland banks) repurchase who does not had guarantee extended credits differ substantially to from would happen if the holders filed a notice and claim as its provided under CCC regulations. (CCC would discharge obligations by purchasing the claim rather than have the banks file and then paying. ) However, CCC made this offer because of the concern that some of Poland's other official or unofficial what a CCC guarantee January 28 offer that, could have of default based notice and claim I will be of the members Attachment constituted is intended a declaration to prevent of default. the adverse The consequences non-CCC declaration from an unintended on a misunderstanding of the meaning of the procedures used by the CCC. resulted happy to answer any Committee may have. questions which you a or other Dear Nr. Chairman a is in reply to your letter of March 2, 1982, in raised a number of questions relating to the vhich you Corporation's (CCC) export lending Credit Ccenodity activities in Poland. The c7uestions you raised and our responses to then are encloseR. This I trust this is the info~ation you renuire. Sincerely, (Signed) Narc E. Lelana Hare ED Leland Assistant Secreta' International Affairs The Honorable Jesse Helns Chairman Ccmnittee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry United States Senate Washington, D. C. 20515 Enclosure IttlttATOw wcvlcwcN ttcv t a wc tt COOC Nlettatta SHAPIRO CANNER GALE AHMERHAN EIGHER IFFFEL tttITIAL/OATC iD F104)A Q.77) nP4caaOENL9E 0-7@~ COMEaFONQENCE APPRQVAI. AND CLE~PLCE (l) Why did the Administration in defaults Question: Poland choose not to declare believe that by not declaring Poland in default to bear on maximum pressure we are bringing Poland and the Soviet Union by promoting a continued flow of hard currency from Poland to the West. We still retain the option of declaring Poland in default. Answer: at this We time (2) Question: Were the USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation's (CCC) regulations on paying guarantees to the banks adhered to in payment to U. S. banks? The January 28, 1982 of fer of the CCC to holders of CCC guarantees covering credits to Poland is clearly within the CCC's legal authority and is consistent with the laws and regulations governing the CCC. This conclusion is based on two elements: (1) the January 28 of fer in no way alters the basic zights and liabilities of CCC under its obligations but instead offers a possibility of improving CCC's position concerning those obligations, and (2) CCC has broad statutory authority to enter into contracts of this type for the settlement of its claims and obligations. Answer: The regulations that set forth the procedures for payment in connection with CCC's guarantees under the GSM-101 and GSM-102 programs provide that in order for the holder of the guarantee to collect from CCC, the holder must f irst ~notif CCC that a payment has been missed and then file a claim, togethez with supporting documentation. Although the notice document provided for in CCC's regulations is termed a notice of default, " CCC's definition of default for purposes of notification is fundamentally different Moreover, the from the concept of default in banking circles' notice required by CCC's regulations has a different purpose from a declaration of default in the banking context. "default" is defined as occurring The purpose of holder of the guarantee to CCC that the the notify requiring foreign bank has failed to make a remittance is to alert CCC to its imminent liability for that payment and to allow it to take such actions as it considers appropriate to protect its interests. of default in the banking On the other hand, a formal declaration context commonly involves triggering the penalty pzovisions contained in the agreement with the debtor, including declaring the entire debt to be due and payable and increasing the rate of interest charged on the outstanding balance due. A formal declaration may also trigger efforts to seize the debtor's assets in an attempt to satisfy the debt. CCC does not require such a declaration of default by the holder in order to trigger CCC's liability. CCC simply requires prompt notice that a The notice could have as well been payment has been missed. styled a notice of overdue payment" or a "notice of nonpayment". CCC nevertheless made its Janauzy 28 offez to guarantee-holders because it felt that other lenders not familiar with the CCC terminology might mistakenly believe that the filing of a notice of default" with the CCC constituted a declaration of default. when Under the CCC regulations, a payment by the borrower has been missed. to file a notice While dispensing wi th the requirement the January 28 offer otherwise closely approximates the terms on which the CCC would make payment on a claim. under the offer provide CCC the The procedural requirements as same protection with respect to its rights and liabilities of default", the procedural notice and claim requirements of the regulations. the terms and conditions under which Noreover, substantively, and, in fact, under one CCC made its offer did not alter option of the offer there was the potential to improve =- the financial position of CCC compared to its position under the original guarantee contract. — for the second element set forth above, the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter act, 15 U. S.C. sections 714 ~et se (the "CCC Act"), confers broad authority upon the CCC to manage its fiscal affairs. The CCC, therefore, is not limited to making payments under its guarantees only according to the terms of its regulations. Xt has sufficient statutory authority to amend the terms of the guarantee contracts without, amending its regulations. Xn exercising this authority, CCC is subject to the duty to act in accordance with customary standards of prudent business management. Section 4(g) of the CCC Act empowers CCC to "enter into and carry out such contracts or agreements as are necessary in the Section 4(j) gives CCC the power to conduct of business". "determine the character of and the necessity for its obligations and expenditures and the manner in which they shall be incurred, allowed, and paid". Section 4(k) authorizes CCC 'to make final and conclusive settlement and adjustment of any claims by or against the Corporation or the accounts of its fiscal officers". Finally, section 4(m) provides that CCC "[s]hall have such powers as may be necessary or appropriate for the exercise of powers specifically vested in the Corporation, and all such incidental powers as are customary in corporations generally". (15 U. S.C. section 714b. ) As making its January 28 offer, CCC was thus using its make and amend such contracts as necessary to the management of its obligations and its powers to settle claims arising under those contracts. CCC was not obligated Xn to judicious powers its to amend its regulations in order to make this offer. Those regulations prescribe the rules and conditions under which CCC is willing to issue its guarantees, but once issued, those guarantees are contracts between the holders and CCC. Like any other contract, the guarantees are subject to amendment by the parties to the contract. (3) Question: What are the ramifications of declaring Poland possibly other nations in default under the program? and The ramifications of declaring Poland and possibly other nations in default under the program would depend to a large extent on the reactions of other governments and private creditors. Other western governments are not obligated to follow the United States in this respect. Private banks would be under no compulsion to declare a default, and they would only have a clear incentive to do so if they expected the U. S. or other governments, as a result of their declarations of default, to obtain a preferred position in any subsequent legal steps against Polish assets. Banks probably would not follow suit if they felt that declaration of default would prejudice their chance of ultimately being paid. Thus, it is conceivable that a declaration of default under the CCC program would not basically alter the status quo. Answer: However, a declaration of default could conceivably trigger the invocation of cross default clauses in private bank loans to Poland. Syndicated or negotiated loans normally carry default and "cross-default" clauses in the loan agreement. These clauses describe when and how the lenders can declare a borrower to be in default. The clauses are not uniform and vary from loan agreement to loan agreement and bank to bank. "cross default" clause merely states that a default can on a specific loan if any other loan to the borrower is in default. The invocation of cross default clauses could trigger legal action by creditors in an effort to seize Polish assets, of which there are few in the West. It would also reduce Poland's ability to earn the hard currency necessary to service its debts to the West. A be declared (4) Question: What is the probability o T'olan~ anc other Eastern arrricultural bloc nations' a".. ility to pay for 3rrerts of U. crnods? r: ". . A natinn's ahilitv to irrort is directly re lated to its earnincs export capabilities and underlying crcRitworthlness. hi."., ir. turn, depends upon such factors as the econor. .ic performance of tl e exrorting country, econnnic develop) ents in the potent'ial iver". tin~ count+~, the availability, oualitv and price of cor.petina goods and the existence or absence of inpedirents to trade flows. Civen Polanc''s extra.-;ely serious financial, econc~ic and Reht, troller. ".s, it is unlikely that they will be in a position to inport significant amounts of U. S. agricultural gooP . in the ir.".~ediate future. Romania's financial difficulties also raise guestions about it. -F:ilit;- to i. ~-. .rt e"ri. .ltu". .=. 1 e od. '.. c rrent circu~. «-r cr s. The other Soviet bloc countries have sufficient hard currency earnings to enable then to purchase U. S. agricultural goods for cash i. those &cvern~cnts Rcc'i+r to allocate t~ese funds for that Xf they do so, it will reduce the resources they have purpose. availahle for other purposes. Answer (5) Question: What is the likelihood the United States vill be able to obtain repayment from Poland on guarantees paid to U. S. bank s? it Answer: In the short run, is highly doubtful that Poland vill pay these obligations in full, although some payments are being Over the long run, the likelihood of payment would appear made. to be much greater. Poland has such basic resources as an educated technically skilled population, coal, copper, sulphur and other rav materials to earn the foreign exchange needed to pay its debts. As it is in the economic interest of Poland to retain its business and financial ties with the West, it can be expected to make all Poland has repeatedly possible efforts to meet these obligations. indicated its intention to do so, and we will make every effort to pressure Poland to make its payments in full. and (6) Question: Exactly what are the cases this century where foreign governments have defaulted to the U. S. Government, U. S. citizens, and to U. S. corporations'P Is the U. S. Government owed money today from any of these cases' Are U. S. citizens or corporations owed If money is owed from these cases money from any of these cases. precisely what are the current amounts dueV Me are not aware of any country that has been formally Answer: declared in default by the U. S. Government. Affairs The Office of the Assistant, Secretary for International publishes data semi-annually on foreign indebtedness to the United States Government. One of these publications singles out, Amounts Doe and Unpaid 90 Days or More". This information has been compiled since June 30, 1972. In cases of loan agreements with scheduled repayment dates, the 90 days are calculated from the due dates of incomplete payments. For accounts receivable, the reference , the point. is that date on which repayment, is customarily expected. Ve are enclosing, for your information, a copy of the latest report, which was published September 30, 1981. The United States Government. basis information on amounts due citizens or U. S. corporations. does not maintain on a regular foreign governments to U. S. by Departnleni of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Washlnyton, N. C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 March RELEASE 15, 1982 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $4, 802 million of 13~eek bills bills, 26-week both to be issued on Average Tenders Tenders at the at the 12.822% 12.948% 12.909% $ 4, 802 million of were accepted today. 26~eek bills maturin 96. 759 96. 727 96. 737 Low for and 18, 1982, 13"week bills June 17, 1982 Discount Investment Price Rate Rate 1/ OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: RANGE High March maturin Price 13.44% 13.57% 13.53% Se tember 16, 1982 Investment Discount Rate Rate 1/ 13.99% 93. 478 12.901% 93.435 12.986% 14.09% 93.447 12.962% 2/ 14.06% price for the 13-week bills were allotted 90%. price for the 26-week bills were allotted 92%. low low TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED (In Thousands) Location Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury TOTALS Competitive Noncompetitive Subtotal, Public Federal Reserve Foreign Official Institutions TOTALS ted : Received ~Ace e t ed " 590 60, 040 74, 53, 040 $ $ $ 3, 697„955 : 9, 341, 170 3, 634, 170 56, 705 : 25, 265 25, 265 48, 280 : 108, 450 88, 450 48i015 45, 000 : 92, 575 49, 075 50, 490 50, 455 : 55, 985 50, 035 284, 745 : 1, 011,505 1, 103, 770 258, 605 38, 410 36, 410 : 26, 510 23, 510 26, 715 16, 715 : 21, 510 13, 510 41, 025 38, 525 : 48, 775 48, 275 31, 775 26, 775 : 21, 295 16, 295 448, 080 215, 980 : 822, 230 227, 230 223, 480 223, 480 ; 314, 465 314, 465 $10, 938, 365 $4, 801, 615 ; $11,963, 775 $4, 801, 925 Received 92, 090 8, 673, 005 108, 180 53, 330 $ ~dcce 8, 626, 165 $2, 489, 415 1, 031, 670 1, 031,670 9, 657, 835 $3, 521, 085 1, 147, 030 1, 147, 030 133, 500 $10, 938, 365 133, 500 $4, 801, 615 $ 970, 075 $10, 267, 275 1, 050, 000 646, 500 : $11,963, 775 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. the maximum 2/ The four-week average for calculating certificates is 12. 626%. market on money R-674 9, 297, 200 $2, 135, 350 970, 075 $3, 105, 425 1, 050, 000 646, 500 $4, 801, 925 interest rate payable RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE The Treasury March today that the 2-1/2 year 155 1992, averaged five basis points. the nearest on 15, 1982 yield curve rate for the five business Treasury ending announced MARCH this rate will be in effect ~Q !L days to rounded Ceiling rates based from Tuesday, March 16, 29, 1982. Detailed rules as to the use of this rate in 1982 through Monday, establishing the ceiling rates for small saver cates were published March certifi- in the Federal Register on July 17, 1981. Small saver is available The phone ceiling rates and related from the DIDC on a recorded number information telephone messages is (202)566-3734. Approve y avanaugh Francis X. Acting Director Office of Market Analysis Finance & Agency HALI LLPIV L, VDC: %0 IU DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS DEREGULATION COMMITTEE Wa. binet()n. l).C. 20220 COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD GOVERNMENT Time and FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION IN THE SUNSHINE MEETING NOTICE 3:30 p. m. , Date: FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK BOAR DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASUR March 22, 1982 Place: Cash Room, Department of the Treasury (Use Pennsylvania Avenue Entrance) Pennsylvania Avenue between 15th Street and East Executive Avenue Washington, D. C. , 20220 Status: Open l. to be Considered: Election of Chairman 2. Consideration Matters limitations of a plan to deregulate interest rate deposits. of short-term deposit instrument proposals' of the interest rate ceiling for savings on time 3. Consideration 4. Consideration deposits' NOTE: and Vice Chairman. will be recorded for the benefit of those to attend. Cassettes will be available for listening in the DIDC offices at the Department of the Treasury, and copies may be purchased for $5. 00 per cassette by calling (202) 566-5152 or by writing to: Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee Department of the Treasury, Room 1054 MT This meeting unable Washington, For further D. C. , 20220 information about the please call (202) 566-3734. Steven L. Skancke, DIDC and the March 22 meeting, Executive Secretary of the Committee lepartmeni of the Treasiiry Washington, ~ D.C. ~ Telephone S66-204$ For Release U on Deliver Expected at 10:00 A. M. EST STATEMENT THE HONORABLE JOHN OF E. CHAPOTON ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR TAX POLICY DEPARTMENT BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE HOUSE OF THE TREASURY ON SELECT REVENUE COMMITTEE I am and Members pleased AND 16, 1982 MARCH Mr. Chairman WAYS ON of the Subcommittee: to have the opportunity views of the Treasury MEASURES MEANS Department on to present the the following bills: 612, 2647, 2981, and 4592, relating to gambling winnings; H. R. 4990, relating to the tax-exempt status of certain amateur athletic organizations; H. R. 4473, relating from qualified plans to rollovers of partial distributions and tax-sheltered annuities to individual retirement accounts; H. R. 3191, relating to the deductibility of expenses of attending conventions on domestic cruise ships; H. R. 4444, relating to the exclusion of research expenses from the capital expenditure limitation for small issue industrial development bonds; H. R. 2597, relating to for tax-exempt veterans membership requirements organizations; H. R. 4577, relating to the effective date for the restricted property provision of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981; H. R. 5630, relating to deferred compensation plans for State judges; and H. R. 1808, relating to transfers of certain imported beer from customs custody to a domestic H. R. brewery. After setting out a summary and the position of the with respect to these bills, I will discuss the proposals in detail: Treasury — ~Summa H. R. 2981, for withholding H. R. 612 requirement limit -. and H. R. 4592 would and H. R. 2647 would ~ a the instances in which winnings i repeal the applies to gambling raise the dollar threshold at as it information reporting on gambling winnings is required and would allow taxpayers to carry a net wagering loss back 3 years and forward 3 years. R-675 is strongly opposed to any efforts to repeal, significantly, the provisions of current law and information reporting or gambling withholding In addition, Treasury opposes that provision of winnings. H. R. 4592 which would allow a 3-year carryback and carryforward for net gambling losses. which foster H. R. 4990 would provide that organizations Treasury or limit imposing amateur sports competition are or xnternational entitled to tax-exempt status without regard to their Additionally, special provision of facilities or equipment. to such contributions limitations on of the deductibility arear' national organizations are provided. supports legislation to clarify this certain issues remain under H. R. 4990. We would to assist in fashioning a solution which would balance the interests of all concerned. from H. RE 4473 would allow certain partial distributions stock bonus, and annuity qualified pension, profit-sharing, plans to be "rolled over" to individual retirement accounts without the payment of current tax. Treasury supports the concept of H. R. 4473. These changes would promote private saving for retirement and would simplify one of the most complex areas of the tax law. Treasury is concerned, however, that the bill may have a negative impact on revenue in the short term and we therefore cannot support this bill at th is time . Treasury strongly However, be pleased H. R. 3191 would allow a deduction for business expenses for attending a convention, seminar, or similar meeting aboard a domestic cruise ship to the same extent as other business expenses if all ports of call of the cruise are within the North America area. Treasury is strongly opposed to HER. 3191. H. R. 4444 would that provide R6D expenses which the taxpayer elects to deduct under section 174 will not be treated as capital expenditures for purposes of the $10 million limitation on small issue industrial development bonds. Treasury believes that it is inappropriate to make the change effected by this bill without a complete review of the basic issues presented by section 103. H. R. 2597 would broaden the membership requirements tax-exempt veterans organizations, for to apply the 75 percent veteran membership requirement without regard to whether such service was in war or peace. Treasury opposes HER. 2597 ' H. R. 4577 would make retroactive to 1969 section 252 of the Economic Recovery Tax Act, which permits a taxpayer who receives stock subject to certain Federal securities or accounting law restrictions to include the value of the stock in income when those restrictions terminate. Treasury opposes H. R. 4577. ~ H. R. 5630 would exempt certain State judicial retirement plans from the disqualification rules of section 457(e)(1). Treasury supports H. R. 5630. certain imported beer to be ~ Treasury opposes H. R. 1808. H. R. 1808 would ~ brewery. - permit 612, H. R. 2647, H. R. 2981, and H. R. 4592 Modification, of the Re eal, or Substantial uirements for Withholdin and Information Re ortin H. R. Re xn t e Case o Certain Gamb xn Wxnnxn s Current law provides for information reporting and in the case of the payment of certain gambling withholding Three of these bills would repeal the requirement winnings. One of for withholding as it applies to gambling winnings. limit the these three biLls, H. R. 4592, would substantially This instances in which information reports are required. bill would also allow taxpayers to carry net wagering losses The fourth bill, H. R. back 3 years and forward 3 years. 264'7, although not repealing withholding, would raise the dollar threshold at which withholding begins. Present Law Since 1977, withholding, at a 20 percent rate, has been Net required in the case of certain gambling winnings. proceeds from the following categories of gambling winnings are subject to withholding: 1. Proceeds of more than $5, 000 from a lottery conducted by a State agency acting under State law. 2. Proceeds of wagering Lottery. more pool or $1, 000 from a sweepstakes, lottery, other than a State than 3. Proceeds of more than $1, 000 from a parimutuel pool respect to horse or dog racing, or )ai alai, if the betting odds are at least 300 to with l. 4. Proceeds of more than $1, 000 from any other wagering transactions if the betting odds are at least 300 to l. Winnings from keno, slot machines, and bingo are exempt from the current law provisions for withholding . In addition to the requirement for withholding, information returns (Forms W-2G) generally must be filed when the winnings from wagering activities exceed $600 and the payout is based on betting odds of 300 to 1, or higher. Although the $600 threshold is provided for by . statute, the 300 to 1 odds requirement is a product of longstanding administrative practice. In the case of winnings from bingo or slot machine play, the dollar threshold is set at $1, 200 and, in the case of keno, it is set at $1, 500. In neither of these cases is there an "odds requirement. " When an information return is required, the person receiving the payment must furnish the payor with his name, address, and taxpayer identification number. This information, in turn, must be reported to the Internal Revenue Service. Under current law, losses from wagering transactions are deductible only to the extent of gains from such transactions in the taxable year. Current law does not permit the carryover of such losses to a later or earlier taxable year . Pro osed Le islation are identical bills. Both would the provisions of current law relating to withholding on gambling winnings. They would leave the information reporting requirements intact. The provisions of H. R. 612 and H. R. 2981 would be effective for payments made after date of enactment. H. R. 612 and H. R. 2981 repeal H. R. 2647 would amend the withholding provisions of law by raising the dollar threshold from $1, 000 to The betting odds requirement at 300 to 1 would be retained. H. R. 2647 would not modify the information reporting requirements of current law and would be effective for payments made after date of enactment. current q5, 000. provisions of it would amend the current information reporting requirement so that reports would be required only where the amount of gambling winnings was $10, 000, or greater. In addition to these changes, H. R. 4592 would allow taxpayers to carry a net wagering loss back 3 years and forward 3 years. H. R. 4592 would repeal law. In addition, current Treasur the withholding Position Treasury is strongly opposed to any efforts to repeal, or limit significantly, the provisions of current law imposing withholding and information reporting on gambling winnings. In addition, Treasury opposes that provision of H. R. 4592 which would allow a 3-year carryback and carryforward for net gambling losses. At the outset, it should be noted that the withholding provisions of current law do not apply to the overwhelming majority of payoffs from wagering transactions. There is not only a dollar threshold requirement (generally $1,000) but also an odds limitation, e. , the betting odds generally must be at least 300 to 1. Thus, the withholding provisions are directed at those special types of wagers which represent unique and occasional windfalls. These are the cases in which it is reasonable to expect a taxpayer to have significant net gambling winnings for the year and, as a result, a substantial income tax liability. We strongly believe that it is both necessary and appropriate to retain the withholding provisions in those instances. i. Secondly, it must be recognized that withholding is an important tool available to the Internal Revenue Service to insure compliance in the reporting of income. Withholding is an element in improving compliance in two respects. First, it provides an incentive for taxpayers who have substantial winnings to report those winnings accurately in order to claim the benefit of the withheld amounts 'on their income tax returns. Second, withholding provides a means of collecting at least a portion of the tax due from winners who fail to file income tax returns. An Internal Revenue Service study of compliance in the reporting of gambling winnings, mandated by the Tax Reform Act of 1976, concluded that there was a strong correlation between rates of compliance and the presence of withholding at the source. Taxpayers subject to withholding had consistently higher rates of compliance than those subject only to information reporting . the viewpoint of tax administration, provides a far better mechanism to ensure Withholding than does mere information reporting. collects a on significant gambling winnings automatically portion of the tax liability attributable to those vinnings. This helps to reduce the tax agency's audit and collection workloads. Withholding contributes to the efforts by the Internal Revenue" Service to discourage the use of so-called "10 percenters, and similar practices to avoid tracing of significant winnings. Withholding raises the cost to the bettor of using a "10 percenter" because the bettor cannot claim a refund for the taxes withheld. Withholding is also superior to mere information reporting because information reporting requires both accurate information documents and a properly " filed income tax return to achieve an acceptable "match, as well as the resources to follow up where there are apparent discrepancies. In the absence of withholding, neither the payor nor the payee has any real incentive to verify the accuracy of the statements made on the information return. Inaccuracies, whether intentional or inadvertent, frustrate the ability to match the documents, and raise the overall cost of tracing gambling winnings to the returns. While information reporting is an effective tool to increase compliance, its combination with a system of withholding is a significant benefit from the standpoint of tax Third, from withholding compliance administration. Finally, some in the industry have argued that the imposition of withholding and information reporting creates an incentive for patrons to wager with illegal bookmakers rather than with legalized and state-regulated wagering establishments . Proponents of this view argue that withholding and information reporting cause the gambling dollars of these bettors to flow to the criminal elements that operate the illegal wagering activity. Furthermore, they argue that legalized establishments whose income is a function of the gross amount wagered are financially disadvantaged by this decrease in the amount wagered. . ln our view, this argument proves too much On careful analysis, one must ask the question why such bettors prefer~ to place their bets with illegal bookmakers. One natural conclusion is that some, if not a substantial portion, of these bettors must be attempting to avoid the reporting and withholding requirements of current lav. It is also logical to assume that these individuals are failing to report this income on their returns. Reduced to its essential points, this argument asks us to condone implicitly a failure to report income by making easier to win at legalized it establishments and not report the winnings. This also provides a net economic benefit to the legalized establishments by allowing them to profit from the winnings which vill go unreported. Treasury simply cannot stand by and acquiesce in a change which will encourage, rather than discourage, the failure to report income accurately. For the reasons set forth above, Treasury strongly opposes the provisions of these four bills which would eliminate, or significantly modify, the information reporting and withholding requirements of current law. H. R. 4990 —Amateur clarifies H. R. 4990 amateur sports S orts the tax-exempt organizations. S. 1757, concept but taking a somewhat different introduced in the Senate. The Treasury on December ll, 1981. anizations Or status of certain bill similar in a approach, testified has been on S. 1757 The Treasury Department strongly supports clarifying in this area. While both H. R. 4990 and S. 1757 would provide this clarification, from a technical standpoint H. R. 4990 would accomplish the objectives in a more direct manner, although there are still several provisions in H. R. 4990 which need further consideration and which we will address. We would be pleased to assist in fashioning a legislation solution interests to these issues which would effectively of all concerned. To put the issues in perspective, balance I believe that the some background may be useful. Prior to 1976, organizations which were engaged in the teaching of sports or promoting sports for youth generally qualified for tax exemption as educational or charitable organizations under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code and were thereby eligible recipients of tax deductible contributions. organizations which were engaged in promoting, governing, and regulating amateur sports but not for youth were generally exempt under section 501(c)(4) or 501(c)(6), with the result that contributions to such organizations were generally not eligible for tax deduction. However, of 1976 sought to provide in this area. Additionally, Congress considered it appropriate to encourage organizations which contributed to developing athletes for competition in the Olympic games and other national or international competition. Accordingly, section 1313 of the Act created, as a separate category of exempt organization under section 501(c)(3), organizations organized and operated exclusively to foster national or international amateur sports The provision was intended not to affect competition. adversely the qualification of any organization which would qualify under the standards of prior law. The Tax Reform Act clarification and uniformity -8In the development of this provision there was substantial concern that organizations which foster amateur sports could prove to be vehicles through which individuals paid for private recreational activities with tax-deductible the Conference Committee added as a condition to exemption the parenthetical phrase "(but only if the activities involve no part of [the organization's] " Although or equipment). provision of athletic facilities the legislative history of the 1976 Act indicates that the for purpose of this limitation was to prevent qualification organizations which, like social clubs, provide facilities or equipment to their members, the statute is absolute, stating Thus, the that any provision of facilities bars exemption. effect of the clear provisions of the statute is to prevent exemption, not only for social clubs, but also for other dollars. amateur Accordingly, sports organizations. limitation The existence of this facilities-equipment has created serious administrative problems. Compelled to follow the unambiguous language of the statute, the Internal that Revenue Service and Treasury have determined organizations providing facilities cannot be recognized as exempt, unless the organization could otherwise qualify under section 501(c)(3). As a complicating factor, the Congress in 1978 enacted the Amateur Sports Act, a purpose of which was to coordinate and reorganize amateur sports in this country. The Act requires that the national governing bodies for Olympic sports be incorporated as separate autonomous entities. As a result, a number of former components of the Amateur Athletic Union (AAU) have been spun off and have applied for exemption under the amateur sports provisions However, as many of these organizations provide facilities and equipment, they could not qualify under the 1976 Act amendments. Further, it was not at all clear that they could qualify under the standards of prior law. This created the ironic situation where, while the AAU was an exempt section 501(c)(3) organization when the 1976 amendments were enacted, the national governing bodies might not qualify for exemption under present law. . Me Service and Treasury have been reluctant to take the draconian measure of issuing adverse rulings to organizations providing facilities and equipment. At the same time, however, we have been unable to fashion an approach administratively which would appropriately draw the lines between qualified and nonqualified organizations. Only Congress can provide the solution to this dilemma. In the meantime, numerous applications for exemption are pending at the IRS and Treasury awaiting a solution. We therefore appreciate the introduction of legislation to solve this problem. As I stated earlier, from a technical standpoint, H. R. 4990 solves the problem in a more direct fashion than does S. 1757. The Senate bill makes certain changes to the exemption section, section 501(c)(3), which defines a qualified organization. The goal of these provisions, of course, is to differentiate organizations which truly foster national or international amateur sports competition from those which are merely for private This line, however, is a difficult, if not impossible, one to draw. Further, we do not believe it necesssary to make the attempt in the exemption provisions. As we see it, the problem is not one of exemption ~er se but rather the deductibility of the contributions to the organization. We do not anticipate that these organizations will have substantial income. However, we are concerned that individuals will be able to pay for recreational activities with tax-deductible contributions. recreation. In this connection, I should note that some may argue that legislative changes are unnecessary in light of the principle that no charitable contribution deduction is allowed where the donor receives a benefit by reason of the contribution. While this ~uid ~ro ~uo doctrine is an important and long-standing principle of law, its reaches are uncertain and it is not easy to apply. While the ~uid pro duo doctrine should continue to apply in this, as well as in aa5er, areas, we believe that certain specific rules, over and above ~uid pro ~uo, are necessary. Thus, H. R. 4990 attacks the problem by focusing on the deduction rather than the exemption sections and by providing specific disallowance rules. Under that bill, the parenthetical to section 501(c)(3) would be eliminated, with the result that any otherwise eligible organization which fosters national or international amateur sports competition will be eligible for exemption without regard to its However, provision of athletic facilities or equipment. specific provisions would be added to the income, estate, and gift tax charitable contribution sections which will preclude deduction for contributions to these organizations under the provision As a general matter, certain circumstances. if the would disallow a deduction to the organization a member of his or a is made person (or contribution by by her family) who uses any athletic facility or equipment provided by the organization within a period beginning 12 months before and ending 12 months after the day the contribution is made. -20The changes to the section 501(c) (3) rules would be retroactive to the effective date of the 1976 Act. The changes to the contribution rules would apply prospectively to contributions made after December 31, 1981. Thus, contributions made to these organizations in prior years would be allowed without regard to the specific disallowance rules. H. R. 4990 provides three exceptions to the disallowance rule. The first, intended as a de minimis rule, provides that contributions up to $500 per year will be insulated from This exception the specific disallowance provision. area. We recognize this highlights one of the problems in that there will be cases where a person makes a very small contribution to an organization and he (or a member of his In this family) makes considerable use of the facilities. the other allowed. At be should case, probably no deduction substantial makes a donor the extreme are cases where contribution and uses the facilities to a relatively insignificant extent. In these cases, at least some portion In of the contribution should be allowed as a deduction. between are the vast majority of cases where there is some contribution and some use of facilities. In these cases, it is very difficult to determine the amount, if any, of the contribution which should be allowed. Compounding the difficulties of measuring, problem are the administrative under any of these scenarios, the extent and value of the use, and the limited audit resources of the Internal Revenue Service to make this measurement. While the ~uid pro ~uo doctrine is available to handle some of the clearer cases when selected for audit, we believe that a rule is necessary in other instances. to facilitate administration The approach taken by H. R. 4990 is to provide a strict disallowance rule, barring all deduction when there is use of the facilities, and then providing the de minimis exception. we believe there is considerable merit to tttrs approach. The strict disallowance rule will eliminate the requirement that the Service monitor in every case the extent and value of use, and the de minimis exception carves out those cases where the amounts are small and therefore not of substantial concern. In this connection, however, we think the $500 exception may be too high. Inasmuch as the purpose of the disallowance rule in the first instance is to police the financing of private recreation with deductible contributions, the exception should be limited to relatively small amounts. We would recommend a $200 de minimis emphasize that if a de minimis I is provided (whatever the amount), it sEouuu ~no Thus, even any way affect the ~uid pro ~uo principle. contributions within the de minimis limit would be subject to disallowance if the link between tEe contribution and benerit to the contributor could be established. exception. exception Further, must -11A second exception to the specific allowance rule (also subject to ~uid pro ~uo) applies to contributions to the U. S. We have Olympic Committee or to a national governing body. no objection to this exception since contributions to these types of organizations were generally allowed under the law prior to 1976 without regard to the provision of facilities or equipment to the contributor or the contributor's family. We agree that a similar rule should now apply. out-ofThe third exception applies to non-reimbursed, pocket expenditures made incident to the rendering of services by a noncompetitor. We are troubled by this provision in that it may be subject to abuse. For example, a parent wanting to watch his or her child participate in an out-of-town athletic competition may arrange to render some nominal service to the sponsoring organization and thereby claim a deduction for the travel and lodging expenses incurred. While this abuse potential is not unique to amateur sports organizations, its impact becomes more acute given the nature of the organization involved and the of family members incurring the expenses likelihood described . We believe, and we think supporters of the bill would agree, that charitable contribution deductions should not be allowed under these circumstances. Further, we believe that under current law such deductions would not be allowed. Under existing authority, if an out-of-pocket expenditure is made primarily for the personal benefit of the contributor, it is not a deductible contribution. Similarly, with respect to expenses which have a dual character (in that they benefit both the charity and the taxpayer), which are incurred incident to the rendering of services, the presence of a substantial direct personal benefit to the taxpayer or someone other than the charity is fatal to the claim for a charitable contribution. In this area also the legislative history should confirm that the exception is subject to this rule of existing law. In this connection, I must add that we do not want to limit the deductibility of expenses incurred by the bona fide volunteers of amateur sports organizations. We understand that many organizations depend upon these volunteers as their life blood and we do not want to interfere with that Our concern is rather with the abusive cases relationship. where the service rendered is disproportionate in relation to the expenses claimed. strongly support an effort to reach a legislative to the problems raised in this area. Accordingly, would be pleased to assist in fashioning a measure that is satisfactory for all concerned. We solution -12- —Rollover of Partial Distributions H. RE 4473 would amend the Internal Revenue Code to allow from pension, profit-sharing, many partial distributions stock bonus, and annuity plans to be "rolled over" to H. R. 4473 individual payment retirement arrangements of current tax. (IRA's) without the concept of H. R. 4473. would promote private saving for retirement of the most complex areas of the tax law. concerned, however, that this bill may have short-term revenue impact and we therefore We support this bill at this time. the These changes simplify one Treasury is a negative cannot support and distribution from a qualified plan requirements of a lump sum distribution is entitled to various forms of special tax relief. First, part of the distribution may be eligible for capital gains treatment. Second, if employer securities attributable to employer contributions are included in the distr ibution, any increase in the value of the secur ities since their acquisition by the plan is not subject to tax until the securities are sold. Under current law a that meets the technical The most recent form' of special tax relief for lump sum distributions was provided by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) which amended the Code to allow special 10-year forward income averaging. Roughly, this treats the distribution as if it were received ratably over a 10-year period and was the only income earned in each such ostensible purpose of such relief was to mitigate the impact of a progressive tax cn individuals who receive extraordinary amounts of income in one year and perhaps to recognize the general applicability of lower marginal rates af ter retirement. year. The Since the 10-year forward averaging provision seems to that the taxpayer would have little or no additional in his post retirement years, it is appropriate that a taxpayer who elects this special tax relief not be entitled to additional retirement benefits. Hence, in order to qualify as a lump sum distribution, the distribution must constituteg among other things, a distribution of the total balance to the credit of the employee in all similar assume income tax-qualified plans. -13of the total requirement of a distribution to the credit of the employee applies to tax-free rollovers of distributions from qualified plans. Under the rollover rules, taxpayers receiving lump sum distributions from qualified plans can avoid current tax by "rolling over" the distribution into an IRA or another tax-qualified plan. Tax is payable only as distributions are made from the IRA or other plan. None of the special forms of tax treatment available to is applicable to an IRA distribution. lump sum distributions Rollovers to IRA's therefore enable a recipient to avoid current tax only if the recipient forgoes favorable forms of tax treatment and retains the plan distribution until retirement years. The same balance A distribution constitute a lump under current law. qualified plan that does not distribution is taxed very differently Partial distributions are includible in income in the year in which received. They cannot be rolled over to an IRA or to another qualified plan, and they do not qualify for any of the forms of special tax relief available for so-called lump sum distributions. However, a subsequent distribution from the same plan may qualify as a lump sum distribution. That second distribution can then be rolled be eligible for special tax relief. over and may The current tax treatment of partial distributions is harsh when a substantial partial distribution is received. It can also act as a tax trap for the unwary. This can occur if, for example, the employee terminates employment before full vesting, receives a distribution of the vested balance to his credit, and is reemployed before the nonvested balance to this credit is forfeited. In this case, current law requires that the first distribution be treated as ineligible Thus, if for special tax treatment and for IRA rollovers. the employee has already made an IRA rollover, the employee will be subject to tax penalties on his "excess " contribution. from a sum will Expanded rollover treatment for plan distributions This eliminate or reduce the problems I have described. expansion would continue the recent trend of liberalizing the rollover rules. In 1974, when rollovers were introduced, only complete rollovers of all proceeds of lump sum However, we have since distributions were permitted. consistent with the policy rollovers which are realized that individuals to save for retirement and to have of encouraging for their available retirement period need not be tied assets " distributions. sum "lump to -14rules have been liberalized to permit partial rollovers, rollovers of proceeds from the sale of property, rollovers of section 403(b) annuities and custodial accounts, rollovers of lump sum distributions received by a spouse upon the death of a participant, rollovers of total distributions that did not meet certain technical lump sum distribution rules, and rollovers of distributions received due to a plan distribution or a sale of a subsidiary or assets. In 1980, Congress first extended tax-free rollover An employee treatment to one type of partial distribution. from a money purchase pension was who received a distribution as eligible for rollover allowed to treat the distribution to have an interest in a continued the even though employee defined benefit pension plan. However, the employee then lost the benefit of special tax treatment for later distributions from either plan. that in light of the substantial retirement We suggest plan policies which are served by rollovers, the rollover H. R. 4473 is a rules should be still further liberalized. step in this 'direction, but additional action is needed. For example, rollover treatment should also be extended to partial distributions received after a plan termination or discontinuation of plan contributions; and to distributions received due to sale of a corporate subsidiary or assets. Rollovers of lump sum distributions are permitted in these circumstances and there is no reason to exclude partial rollovers. However, as provided under H. R. 4473, an employee should not be eligible for who rolls over such a distribution 10-year forward averaging, capital gains treatment, or exclusion of net unrealized appreciation on employer securities attributable to employer contributions with respect to any further distributions from the plan or any other plan that would be aggregated with it under the lump sum distribution rules. Since 1974, the rollover We agree that rollover treatment should not be extended to payments under a life annuity or payments under a term certain annuity for a substantial period because of the abuses which might result. For example, an employee who begins to receive an annuity at age 60 could obtain substantial deferral of tax by rolling over each annuity payment into an IRA. No distributions would be required to be made from the IRA until the participant reached age 70-1/2 and then the amounts which would be required to be distributed would be less than the amounts otherwise includible in the employee's income from the qualified plan. Since the purpose of allowing for tax-favored retirement plans is to provide for retirement savings, we believe a rollover in these annuity situations would be inappropriate since the ultimate beneficiary of the retirement plan might be someone other than the employee or the employee's beneficiary. -15believe that the expanded rollover rules of H. R. 4473 simplify the law in the area of ro' lovers and w''' prevent the harsh results that can now occur. We would While we support the concept of H. R. 4473, we are concerned that it may have a negative impact on revenue in the short term and we therefore cannot support this bill until we know what the revenue impact would be. This could occur because partial distributions would otherwise be taxed at an individual's marginal tax rate, as would earnings on the after-tax portion of the distribution. H. R. 4473 will exclude partial distributions that are rolled over from current taxation and will increase the pool of tax-sheltered earnings until IRA distributions begin. H. R. Attendin 3191 —Deductibilit Conventions of Ex enses of on Domestic Cruise Shi s Back round The restrictions placed on the deductibility of expenses relating to foreign conventions were first enacted in 1976. At that time, Congress recognized the growing practice among professional, business, and trade organizations to sponsor cruises, trips and conventions during which only a small portion of time was devoted to business activity. The promotional material often highlighted the deductibility of expenses incurred in attending a foreign convention and, in some cases, described the meeting in such terms as a "tax-paid vacation" in a "glorious" location. In short, many taxpayers were attending foreign conventions that were really thinly-disguised vacations and then deducting these personal vacation expenses as business expenses. Deductions for attending foreign conventions had thus become a source of tax abuse. In response to the problem, Congress adopted rules which allowed the claiming of deductions for two conventions per year if the primary purpose for the trips was business and not pleasure. These rules did not eradicate tax-subsidized vacations, however, and were therefore supplemented in 1980 with a "reasonableness" test. Under this test, the expenses of attending a foreign convention, seminar, or similar meeting are not deductible unless it is more reasonable to hold the convention outside the North American area than within The factors to be considered in determining reasonableness of the convention site are: the purpose and activities of the convention; the the purpose and activities of the sponsoring organization; residence of active memb rs of the sponsoring organization; and the places at which other meetings of the sponsoring organization have been held. it. -16- if significant portion of an resided in France, it could be considered more reasonable for the organization to hold a convention in France than in the United States. Similarly, if the members of an organization composed of individuals engaged in a certain type of business regularly conducted a portion of their business in Germany, it could be considered to hold a convention in more reasonable for the organization Germany than in the United States. For example, organization's a members H. R. 3191 the present statute, a convention held on any cruise ship is not considered as satisfying the reasonableness test and no deduction is allowed in connection H. R. 3191 would modify this rule and permit the therewith. deduction of attending a convention, seminar, or similar meeting held on a domestic cruise ship if all ports of call of such cruise are inside the North American area. A domestic cruise ship is defined to mean any cruise ship documented under the laws of the U. S. Under , Treasury is strongly opposed to H. R. 3191. test adopted in 1980 was intended to The reasonableness deal with the primary problem with foreign conventions, namely, the selection of the foreign site because of vacation Even motives without regard to business considerations. though a convention benefits a taxpayer's business to some degree, there is no justification for a tax deduction where the convention is held at a foreign site having nothing to do In such cases the personal with the taxpayer's business. benef it predominates. this reasoning is sound and applies to conventions held aboard cruise ships. The only reason for holding a convention or seminar on a cruise ship would be for personal enjoyment. It would be a rare case where a cruise has any connection with the topic of the convention or with the organization. In short, we think allowing a deduction for expenses of attending a convention aboard a cruise ship would too closely resemble a tax-subsidized vacation. It is the type of deduction that discredits our entire tax system. We think particularly -17- -- H. R. 4444 Ca Small Issue ital Ex enditures Limitation Industrial Develo ment Bonds on Under present law, interest on IDBs is generally not exempt from Federal income tax since the bond proceeds are used in a private trade or business and payment of the bonds is derived from the business. Exceptions are provided, however, for certain quasi-public "exempt facilities" (such as airports) and for certain "small issues. " The small issue exception applies to single issues of $1 million or less, if the bond proceeds are used for land or depreciable property. election of the issuer, the $1 million cap may be to $10 million, provided that all outstanding exempt small issues plus other capital expenditures (not financed out of exempt small issues) within a 6-year period with respect to the business project are aggregated for purposes of the limitation. This $10 million cap on the aggregate of prior issues and capital expenditures has the effect of denying tax-exemption to IDBs used in connection with large and expensive projects. At the increased Under Treasury regulations, the amount of capital the usual tax rules for from currently deductible expenditures is distinguishing capital charges expenses. Thus, the research and development cost of developing a new formula, product or other capital asset with respect to the IDB project are capital in nature and now count against the $10 million cap. determined under It would provide H. R. 4444 would alter this result. the project user eLects to deduct .currently R&D which under section 174 would not be counted as capital for IDB Section 174, of course, was originally enacted not purposes. of R&D from capital to to change the general characterization that noncapital, but only to allow otherwise capital R&D expenses to be treated in effectively the same manner as ordinary deductible expenses. generally is capital in nature, we believe that the proposal to treat it as noncapital for IDB purposes has some merit. The interaction of the R&D rules could, in some and the section 103 small issue requirements bias an inequitable of creating effect the cases, have of make use the small to firms desiring against R&D-intensive issue exemption. Even though R&D -18this background, we must balance the perceived to encourage R&D activities against tax policy considerations which militate against creating an exception to the general Code treatment of R&D as capital in nature. that we are not writing on a clean We must also recognize slate. Substantial tax incentives for R&D were enacted as part of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Finally, we of piecemeal change to the must consider the appropriateness -an area fraught with numerous and tax rules governing IDBs A comprehensive very basic unresolved questions. reexamination of this area by Congress is clearly in order. We are therefore of the view that it is inappropriate to make the change effected by this bill in the absence of a complete review of the basic issues presented by section 103. In addition, several technical points should be stressed. First, it is not clear whether the bill applies only to items such as labor and supplies, or whether it also H. R. applies to capital R&D equipment and leased quipment. 4717, passed by the Senate in December of last year, applies only to labor and supplies and we think it is a sound rule . Given need Second, HER. 4717 has, properly in our view, delimited the scope of permissible R&D expenditures in one other way: The exclusionary rule is not extended to contract research expenses. Particularly in light of the substantial tax credit for such expenditures and current budgetary constraints, we feel that this limitation is appropriate. Third, we think any new rule should only apply to R&D expenditures made after the date of enactment. H. RE 4444 provides for retroactive change of treatment and is deficient in that regard. H. R. 2597 -- Membershi Veterans Or Re uirements anizations for Since 1969, Code section 501(c)(19) has granted status to certain groups of veterans. In order to qualify for such status, the group must be composed of at least 75 percent war veterans. The remaining 25 percent must be substantially composed of veterans (other than war veterans), veterans' widows or widowers, and military cadets. A war veteran is defined by the regulations as any person who served in the U. S. Armed Forces during a period of war (including the Korean and Vietnam conflicts) tax-exempt . -19Prior to the enactment of section 501(c) (19) in 1972 the veterans organizations generally qualified for exemption as social welfare organizations under section 501(c)(4) or as social clubs under section 501(c)(7). This special category of exemption was created to allow veterans organizations more advantageous treatment with respect to their unrelated business income from the sale of insurance coverage. Qualifying veterans organizations are exempt from unrelated business income tax on any amounts attributable to payments for life, sick, accident or health insurance coverage with respect to members or their dependents, provided that such amounts are set aside for purposes of providing for the payment of insurance benefits or for a qualified charitable purpose. ~ The problem faced by these organizations is that the combination of a prolonged period of peace and the natural attrition rate among surviving war veterans is rapidly reducing the percentage of "war" veterans in section H. R. 2597 would amend the 501(c)(19) organizations. test of section 501(c)(19) to provide tax membership exemption for an otherwise qualifying organization, provided that at least 75 percent of its members are past or present members of the U. S. Armed Forces, without regard to whether these veterans had served during a period of war. Treasury opposes HER. 2597 because we oppose any expansion of a rule which exempts from subchapter L (dealing with the taxation of life insurance companies) an organization which engages in the life insurance business at a time when the taxation of life insurance companies is under active study by the Treasury Department. H. R. 4577 -- Transfers of Restricted Stock any taxpayer who received stock subject The Securities Exchange Act of 1934, profit may be recovered by a an 'insider's" the stock is sold within 6 months of receipt), to treat the value of the stock (less any amount Prior to ERTA, to section 16(b) of (under which corporation if required paid) as compensation when received. ~/ Section 252 of ERTA revised this rule, on the theory that restrictions on transferability which are mandated by Federal securities laws or accounting principles should be taken into account in the time in which the value of the stock should determining was See Horwith v. Comm'r, 71 T. C. 932 (1979). -20in income. Af ter ERTA, any taxpayer who receives stock subject either to section 16(b) or to the "pooling-of-interest" accounting rules will be treated as risk of forfeiture within the being subject to a substantial meaning of Code section 83 for the 6-month period during apply. Thus, the employee which the mandated restrictions will include in income, and the employer may deduct at the time the restriction lapses, the difference between the value of the stock at that time and the amount paid for the stock This provision applies to transfers after ( if any). be included 31, 1981. December H. R. 4577 would make the above-described change in the restricted stock transfer rule retroactive to June 30, 1969, provided that any person who received restricted stock after The same effective date that date elects the tax deferral. of this amendment to the appeared in the original version of H. R. 4242. Under section 810 restricted property rules, this original proposal, any individual who had received restricted stock in the latter half of any year after 1968 could elect to defer tax liability on the value of the transferred property from the year of receipt until the next The original proposal year (when the restriction lapsed). did not, however, provide for any adjustment in the corresponding business expense deduction of the employer, which under the principles of section 83 should be claimed in the same year the property is taken into income by the would prevent any The statute of limitations employee. adjustment in returns filed up to 14 years prior to the time of an employee's election, thus defeating the correlation between employer deduction and employee inclusion that is mandated by section 83. When this provision appeared in the Conable-Hance It was II bill, it this version ultimately became which law. was given prospective effect only. was supported by Treasury and which Treasury continues to oppose of ERTA's change in the restricted opposition is consistent with our retroactivity even where, as here, the law is sound. any retroactive application property rules. This general oppostion to the substantive change in There are additional reasons why retroactivity is in this case. First, by going back to 1969, inappropriate the bill would permit taxpayers to elect to open years closed statute of limitations. The purpose of a statute of limitations is to prevent both the Internal Revenue Service and taxpayers from reopening issues after a certain period of time regardless of how meritorious the position may be. by the -21legislation clearly violate that rule. Secondly, the apply the new rule to past years. Rather, it provides taxpayers with the option of applying either the old rules or the new rules. Such an optional substantive rule does not represent sound tax policy. bill would does not simply For these reasons, H. R. 5630 Treasury —State oppoSes H. R. 4577. Judicial Retirement Plans Section 457, as added to the Code by the Revenue Act of 1978, generally permits employees of a state or local government to defer compensation under an eligible state deferred compensation plan, if the deferral does not exceed $7, 500 or 25 percent of compensation. Amounts of compensation deferred under an eligible plan, plus interest thereon, are includible in the income of the participant or the participant's beneficiary only when paid or made available under the plan (e.cC. , upon the participant's separation from service). If a deferred compensation plan fails to meet the of an eligible plan, sectionCodex' requirements 457(e)(l) provides that all compensation deferred under this ineligible plan after January 1, 1982 will be included in income for the first year in which there is no substantial risk of Section 457(e)(2) lists five exceptions to this inclusion rule, encompassing plans that are governed by other retirement rules set forth in the These exceptions are: (1) a qualified plan which includes an exempt trust; (2) a section 403 annuity plan or contract; (3) a qualified bond purchase plan (4) a section 83 arrangement; and (5) a nonqualified but funded trust. forfeiture. broad This statutory list of exceptions does not include certain regular but unfunded state retirement plans i. e. , plans that provide benefits solely by periodic appropriations from the state's general fund. by the state legislature Participants in all such regular state retirement plans are therefore facing current taxation of amounts deferred under the plan as of January 1, 1982, when section 457 took full — effect. It is clear from the legislative history of section 457 that unfunded regular retirement plans of a state were not intended to be disqualified by section 457(e)(l) the limited exceptions provided by section (notwithstanding 457(e)(2)). See H. R. Rep. No. 95-1445, 95th Cong. , 2d Sess. -22- (1978); S. Rep. . No. 95-1263, 95th Cong. , 2d Sess. 70 (1978) . The fact that the legislation was prompted by the Service's position under Prop. Reg. S 61-16, pertaining to compensation deferred under an individual o tion, and the deferral, provide further indication that Congress did not intend to disqualify those mandatory unfunded state 57 for individual retirement plans that provide no opportunities salary reduction arrangements. 457 (issued on respect to whether regulations could appropriately be drafted to exclude regular retirement plans from the current taxation unfunded rule of section 457(e)(1). However, given the clear and language of the statute, Treasury and the unambiguous Internal Revenue Service have been unable to justify drafting a regulatory exception which would accomodate certain under section The proposed regulations December 29, 1980) requested comments with unfunded state retirement plans but which would not exclude from section 457(e)(1) those ineligible plans that properly belong within its scope. clarification of the status of all unfunded retirement state plans, Treasury has provided in its proposed regulations under section 457 that the income inclusion rule of section 457(e)(1) will apply only to compensation deferred under these plans after December 31, 1981. (See Prop under section 457 can 5 1.457-3(c). ) The final regulations be expected to contain the syme rule. As a result, participants in these unfunded state retirement plans will not be penalized as of January 1, 1982, by the current inclusion in income of all amounts deferred under these plans pending the 1978-81 transitional during period. H. R. 5630 provides unfunded state retirement statutory clarification of the plan issue only for certain plans plan meets the following requirements: covering state judges. Specifically, the bill exempts certain qualified state judicial plans from the income inclusion rule of section 457(e)(1), provided that such (1) has been in existence (2) requires j udges; 100 percent (3) bases contributions compensation; (4) includes no continuously participation on a uniform salary reduction a since 1978; by eligible fixed percentage options; of -23retirement benefits for each judge equal to of the compensation of all judges of the state holding similar positions (Texas provides for a deferral of 6 percent of judges' compensation); and (5) provides a percentage (6) pays limits. A seventh no benefits requirement, in excess of the section 415(b) which would have prevented judges participating in the plan from being eligible to participate (on the basis of judicial service) in any other state deferred compensation plan that qualifies under section 457, appeared in S. 1855 and in H. R. 4881, the original version of H. R. 5630, but has recently been deleted from this bill. Treasury supports H. R. 5630, based upon our recognition that certain state unfunded plans were not intended to be covered by the section 457(e)(1) disqualification rules. We would also recommend, however, that Congress make a future attempt to exempt from section 457 other state unfunded which are not judicial plans, but retirement arrangemuents which are also unfairly disadvantag~e by section 457(e). This broader exception, which would apply generally to regular state retirement plans, should cover any defined benefit pension plan established and maintained by a state of (or by a political subdivision, agency, or instrumentality a state) for the exclusive benefit of state employees, even if the plan is unfunded, provided that (1) the plan has been continuously in existence since 31, 1978; (2) the plan benefits a significant number of employees, all of whom are similarly situated; (3) all employees eligible to benefit under the plan are required to participate, and, if contributions to the plan are required, to contribute the same fixed percentage of their basic or regular rate of compensation under the plan; December (4) the plans applies uniform retirement methods to determine the accrued or vested benefits of participants under the plan; (5) the plan cannot pay benefits with respect to any participant which exceed the limitations on benefits permitted under tax-qualified plans; and (6) the plan provides no option to plan participants as to contributions or benefits the exercise of which would affect the amount of any participant's currently includible compensation. -24H. R. 1808 -- Tax-Free Transfers Present law provides separate of Im orted Beer excise tax rules for imported beer. Domestically produced beer is subject to a $9 per barrel excise tax ($7 per barrel for certain small producers) at the time the beer is removed from the brewery for consumption or sale. Imported beer is subject to a $9 per barrel tax at the time the beer is removed from customs custody, even if the beer is then transferred to a domestic brewery. domestic and H. R. 1808 would change the point of imposition of the excise tax on imported beer from the point of removal from customs to the point of sale from the brewery, in the case of any beer brought into the United States in bulk containers. Because bulk beer can be stored indefinitely and transferred (either in the pressured containers or by pipeline) tax-free between producers and bonded warehouses, this bill could provide a lengthy deferral of excise tax liability for all beer imported in these containers. Treasury understands that very few domestic brewing companies currently import beer in pressurized bulk containers for bottling in the United States. The bill would place these few with the capability of importing container beer at a competitive advantage relative to those importers that will continue to be liable for excise taxes at the point of removal from customs custody. Treasury believes that the beer excise tax should continue to be imposed uniformly on all importers of beer at the point of removal from customs custody, and therefore opposes H. R. 1808. I would be pleased to answer any questions you may have. Department of the Treasury FOR RELEASE AT ~ Washinion, p.g. 4:00 P. M. ~ Telephone 566-2041 March 16, 1982 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills totaling approximately $9, 600 million, to be issued March 25, 1982. This offering will provide $350 million of new cash for the Treasury, as the maturing bills were originally issued in the amount of $9i255 million. The two series offered are as follows: 91 -day bills (to maturity date) for approximately $4. 800 million, representing an additional amount of bills dated December 24, 1981, and to mature June 24, 1982 (CUSIP No- 912794 AU 8 ), currently outstanding in the amount of $4, 715 million, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182 -day bills for March 25, 1982, (CUSIP No. 912794 BM 5 dated approximately ). and $4, 800 million, to to mature September be 23, 1982 Both series of bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing March 25, 1982 ' In addition to the maturing 13-week and 26-week bills, there are $4I 684 million of maturing 52-week bills. The disposition of this latter amount was announced last week. Federal Reserve Banks, as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities, currently hold $1, 946 million, and Federal Reserve Banks for their own account hold $3, 110 million of the maturing bills. These amounts represent the combined holdings of such accounts for the three issues of maturing bills. Tenders from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities will be accepted at the weighted average prices of accepted competitive tenders. Additional amounts of the bills may be issued to Federal monetary Reserve Banks, as agents for foreign and international authorities, to the extent that the aggregate amount of tenders for such accounts exceeds the aggregate amount of maturing bills For purposes of determining such additional held by them. monetary authorities are amounts, foreign and international considered to hold $1, 444 million of the original 13-week and 26-week issues. The bills will be and noncompetitive issued on a discount basis under competibidding, and at maturity their par amount Both series of bills will be will be payable without interest. issued entirely in book-entry form in a minimum amount of $10,000 and. in any higher $5, 000 multiple, on the records either of the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, or of the Department of the Tr easur y. tive Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D . C 20226, up to 1:30 p .m . , Eastern Standard time, Monday, March 22, 1982. Form PD 4632-2 (for 26-week series) or Form PD 4632-3 (for 13-week series) should be used to submit tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . ~ Each tender must be for a minimum of $10, 000 . Tenders over 000 must be in multiples of $5, 000. In the case of competi$10, tive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with three decimals, e g , 97 920 . Fractions may not be used. . . . and dealers who make primary markets in Banking institutions Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities if the names of the may submit tenders for account of customers, customers and the amount for each customer are furnished . Others are only permitted to submit tenders for their own account Each tender must state the amount of any net long position in the bills being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million This information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p .m . Eastern time on the day of the auction. Such positions would include bills acquired through "when issued" trading, and futures and forward transactions as well as holdings of outstanding bills with the same maturity date as the new offering, e .g . , bills with three months to maturity previously offered as six-month bills . Dealers, who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million . . . Payment for the full par amount of the bills applied for must accompany all tenders submitted for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the difference between the par payment submitted and the actual . issue price as determined No in the auction deposit need accompany tenders . from incorporated banks trust companies and from responsible and recogni&ed dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches' A deposit of 2 percent of the par amount of the bills applied «r must accompany tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company and accompanies the tenders . Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Competitive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection: of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretary's action shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500, 000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch f unds in cash or other immediately-available on March 25, 1982, Cash adjustments or in Treasury bills maturing March 25, 1982. will be made for differences between the par value of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the of discount at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax return of the owner as ordinary income. The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated' redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount is determined by multiplying such discount by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the from the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer's the bill. ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gains Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series Nos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the Public Under amount Debt. partment of the Treasury ~ washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204'5 FOR IMPS DIATE RELEASE March J 7, 1982 Sale of Chrysler Defense to General Dynamics On March 15, 1982, the members of the Chrysler Loan Guarantee Board approved the sale of Chrysler Defense, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Chrysler Corporatj. on, General Dynamics, Inc. for approximately &335 mj. llj. on dollars. By selling this subsidiary Chrysler j.mproves cash position and strengthens it's ability to conduct business R-577 xn a sagging automotive market. Inc. , to it' s Department of the Treasury ~ Washington, Q.C. ~ Telephone S66-204% For Release U on Deliver Expected at 10:00 a. m. , EST STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE JOHN ED CHAPOTON ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR TAX POLICY BEFORE THE SENATE COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET March Chairman Mrs and Members of this 17, 1982 Committee: I am pleased to be here today to discuss tax expenditures. think everyone would agree, there are many provisions of the Internal Revenue Code specifically designed as incentives to encourage selected economic activities. These special tax provisions are commonly referred to as "tax expenditures, " and I will therefore use this term in my testimony today. However, it should be noted that the label "tax expenditu're" is misleading. Special tax provisions are not equivalent to direct Government expenditures on goods and services. Direct expenditures involve the purchase of labor, capital, and materials that are used directly by the Government to achieve public goals, such as In contrast, most special tax provisions national defenses provide a subsidy to an activity carried out in the private sector. For this reason, the label "tax subsidies" may better describe these special tax provisions " than does the more But even the label "tax conventional term "tax expenditures. subsidies" is misleading, for many special tax provisions simply reduce disincentives in our tax Code. This is particularly true in the case of special tax provisions which have the effect of reducing the double taxation of corporate income. As I The Administration is opposed to attempts to legislate Such blanket, across-the-board limitations on tax expenditure@. limitations do not account for the different, sometimes highlyInstead, this desirable, effect of different tax expenditures. Administration is committed to a reevaluation of all Government activity in the economy, whether that activity is undertaken through direct outlay and subsidy programs, loan and loan guarantee programs, regulations, or through tax expenditures. Resources can be allocated to achieve public goals by each of But, that these methods, and they must therefore be evaluated. evaluation must deal with each program, regulation, or tax provision individually on its own merits. For example, a review of Government energy policy would be incomplete unless it covered (such as expensing of exploration and energy tax expenditures development costs, the excess of percentage over cost depletion, and various energy credits, which will total $8. 8 billion in FY 1983), energy loan and loan guarantee programs (which will total $9. 4 billion, net, in FY 1983), the cost of energy regulations (for example, price controls on natural gas and the 55 MPH speed limit, for which cost estimates are not included in the Budget), as well as direct outlays for energy (which will total $4. 2 billion in FY 1983)For Government management purposes, it is essential that the resource cost of Government programs be comparably measured, regardless of the particular method by which the allocation of was resources is accomplished. The concept of tax expenditures developed to provide such comparability between programs effected through special tax provisions and programs effected through other methods. Properly defined, measured, and applied, therefore, the tax expenditure concept can serve as a very useful tool. Like many other concepts, however, it. is management and therefore has subject to misuse as well as misunderstanding, received some well-founded criticism. today, I will review the definition and of tax expenditures, as well as some of the related concepts and measures that have been confused with tax expenditures. I will discuss the relative efficiency of tax expenditures as a method of achieving public goals. I will also discuss the control of tax expenditures under the Budget Act. In my remarks measurement Tax Ex enditures Definin Section 3 of the Budget Act defines tax expenditures as losses attributable to provisions of the Federal tax laws which allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or which provide a special credit, a preferential rate of tax, or a deferral of tax liability. " This definition requires a distinction to be drawn between the special provisions of the tax structure, which are designed to to achieve public goals, and the normal provisions, which are necessary to make the tax system operational. Obviously, there are different ways to draw this distinction, a point to which I will return later. Nhat follows, then, is the Administration's "revenue view of how this distinction should be drawn. of the income tax include the subject to tax and allowable deductions, including some provision for the recovery of the cost of depreciable assets; taxable units and their threshold levels of The normal definition of provisions income taxability; the relationship between the taxation of corporations and their shareholders; the schedule of tax rates; the basic tax rules, including the accounting period for taxation income is taxed as it is realized or as it accrues; the treatment of international transactions; and the system of tax administration. Unlike the special tax expenditure provisions, these normal provisions are essential to the income tax. In our view, for a provision to be special, two conditions accounting and whether must be met: provision must apply to a narrow class of transactions or taxpayers; and o The o There must be a general provision to which the special provision is a clear exception. Some examples of tax expenditures, from Special Analysis G of the Budget, will illustrate this definition. Under the general provisions of the income tax code, interest received from any source is includable in income subject to tax. However, a special provision allows interest on obligations of State and local Governments to be excluded from taxable income. The exclusion is therefore considered a tax expenditure intended to reduce the cost of borrowing for State and local Governments, even though some of the benefits accrue to lenders. A second example is the statutory exclusion of certain fringe benefits, such as employer-paid medical The insurance premiums, from the taxable income of employees. inclusion of wages in the tax base is a normal rule of the tax Code, and the exclusions of these fringe benefits are special Other provisions, and therefore constitute tax expenditures. include special provisions that examples of tax expenditures promote homeownership, exports, and employment of the handicapped. Several features noted. First, provisions of the tax expenditure concept should be while the distinction of the between the normal and special tax may be clear in the abstract, in difficulty in applying the distinction tax expenditures. income always practice there is in order to delineate Second, the definition of tax expenditures taken to suggest that the normal tax provisions should not be no tax incentives or disincentives. All existing taxes affect economic incentives to some extent, and therefore the level and allocation of resources' In fact, some of the normal provisions of the income tax have effects very similar to special provisions. involve is provided by the A good example of this similarity Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS) rules and the investment tax credits Any income tax requires a set of rules for determinThe ACRS ing how the cost of depreciable assets is recovered. provisions now constitute the general income tax rules for that" purpose. To see this, one need only ask: If ACRS is "special, what is the "general" rule in the Internal Revenue Code governing the recovery of cost of depreciable property to which ACRS is an exception? Absent some other general provisions, the ACRS provisions must be treated as part of the normal tax structure In contrast, and therefore do not constitute a tax expenditure. the investment credit is considered a tax expenditure because, unlike ACRS, it does not deal with one of the basic structural elements of an income tax. Third, as I noted previously, there are other possible definitions of tax expenditures. It has often been suggested that tax expenditures be defined relative to the standard of an "ideal" income tax. However, there is no consensus among tax experts on the structure of an "ideal" tax relative to which special (tax expenditure) provisions could be delineated, and few would seriously regard an "ideal" tax as a practical tax structure. For example, under an "ideal" income tax, the rental value of owner-occupied housing would have to be added back (imputed) to homeowners' money income to arrive at the "ideal" income tax base. In addition, using an "ideal" income tax as a standard the double taxation of dividends at the corporate and individual levels would constitute a ne«eative tax expenditure. The more common approach to tax expenditures has simply been to list possible "tax reform" items. This approach has led to much confusion about the concept and measurement of tax expenditures. Further, neither the "ideal tax" or "tax reform" approaches has the pragmatic advantage of the definition used here and in Special Analysis G of identifying those provisions of the Internal Revenue Code that deal with basic structural features of the income tax, and those that provide special exceptions to those structural rules. the fact that a provision is a tax expenditure this definition says nothing about the desirability or the effectiveness of the provision. This is also true, it should be noted, for direct outlay programs' The definition (and measurement) of tax expenditures is not a substitute for the analysis and evaluation of programs implemented through the tax system any more than a listing of direct outlays by program is a substitute for their evaluation. Further, the designation of a provision in the income tax Code as "normal" does not imply that the provision is desirable. under Fourth, Clearly, there are many tax expenditures that serve desirable purposes in an efficient manner. The investment credit provides investment incentives for economic growth. The special tax treatment afforded pension savings, including IRA's Note that and Keogh's, provide important incentives to save. these provisions were expanded by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. It is also clear that there are some undesirable tax expenditures and the Administration has proposed to repeal or modify them. Specifically, under our tax proposals the business energy tax credits would be repealed, corporations would be required to capitalize and amortize construction period interest and certain restrictions and taxes on commercial structures, would be placed on issues of tax-exempt bonds for private activities. In addition to repealing or revising certain tax has expenditure provisions, however, the Administration proposed, for example, to revise the modified coinsurance provision, which has never appeared on any official list of tax expenditure items. Similarly, the special treatment of tax straddles, which was extensively revised by the Economic of 1981, was never listed as a tax expenditure. The fact that these provisions have not been listed as tax expenditures well-illustrates the confusion that has arisen from considering tax expenditures as a list of "tax reform" items. The tax expenditure concept is a tool for budget review and analysis; tax policy review and analysis, on the other hand, need not and should not be limited to an examination of some, rather than all, of the provisions of the income tax Code. Recovery Tax Act Measurin Tax Ex enditures Tax expenditure estimates are intended to show the cost of To insure resource allocations caused by special tax provisions. comparability between tax expenditure estimates and direct outlay estimates, tax expenditures must be measured in the same manner as are direct outlays. This requires that specific conventions be followed in measuring tax expenditures. First, as with budget outlay estimates, tax expenditure estimates are made on the assumption that all other provisions of the tax Code and all other laws governing market exchanges are unchanged. The same levels of aggregate income and economic growth that underlie direct outlay estimates are also assumed. Second, tax expenditure and direct outlay estimates are both based on the actual level of activities given the program; neither estimates what the level of the activity would be in the absence of the program. This is a particularly important point. in the case of tax expenditure estimates, because they are often incorrectly assumed to be estimates of the revenue that would be gained if the special tax provision were repealed. changes that may follow the repeal special tax provision, the revenue gain from repeal may An example be much lower than the tax expenditure estimate. would be the taxation of a particular employee fringe benefit which is currently untaxed, such as employer-paid medical The expected response would be a decrease in insurance premiums. the amount of employer-paid medical insurance premiums, but an increase in the amount of other still untaxed fringe benefits, and educational such as employers' pension contributions assistance. Thus, the revenue gain from the change would be less than the tax expenditure estimate, which only measures, quite correctly, the reduction in tax receipts from the actual level of employer-paid medical insurance premiums in the particular year Note that there would be analogous behavioral responses if many direct outlay programs were eliminated or curtailed. For example, the removal of a price support for a particular agricultural commodity could be expected to lead to somewhat In commodities. higher production of other, price-supported, lower would be outlays in budget reduction net the cases, such than the savings from the eliminated (or curtailed) program. of a Because of behavioral ~ revenue gains estimates is the from repeal of provisions and tax expenditure income and level of effect repeal would have on the aggregate well as as economic growth. For example, all receipts expenditure figures in the Budget are based on projections of income and growth which assume the investment tax credit, as currently enacted, will continue to operate. If, however, the investment credit were repealed (or curtailed) without being replaced by a comparable investment incentive, the current projections of income and growth would have to be revised Consistent with these revisions, receipts and downward. The expenditure projections would also have to be revised. estimated net effect of repeal of the investment tax credit on receipts, therefore, would not be equivalent to the tax expenditure estimate shown in the Budgets A second reason for the difference between Third, comparability with direct outlay estimates requires that tax expenditures be measured as "outlay equivalents. " Most outlays in the Federal Government are measured in pretax dollars. That is, the outlay of the Federal Government is taxable income to someone. Tax expenditures directly return income in the form of after-tax dollars in most cases. That is, a tax credit of $10 is a subsidy of $10 after taxes. The measurement of tax expenditures in outlay equivalent form converts the after-tax dollars that the subsidy directly gives rise to into a pretax equivalent amount. For example, in the case of the $10 credit, if the average tax rate of recipients of that credit were 20 percent, the outlay equivalent of the $10 credit would be $12. 50. If a $12. 50 payment were made in place of the cred't re it, the tax would be $2-50 leaving $10 after tax, the same amount the credit. In addition to following these measurement conventions, adjustments must be made for the interactions between various tax expenditure provisions in order to make total tax expenditure estimates by budget function. These interactions may be demonstrated by comparing the result of deleting two tax expenditures simultaneously to that of deleting them separately. In some cases, the reduction in tax expenditures from the deletion of two items simultaneously would he ~rester than the from the deletion of the two items sum of the reductions This increase is due to "stacking" of the two items separately. For example, if interest income when they are taken together. from State and local Government bonds were made taxable and capital gains on home sales were not deferred, more individuals would be pushed into higher tax brackets than if just one of these sources of income were treated under the normal rules of the tax Code; the combined reduction in tax expenditures would be greater than the sum of the two separate effects. In other cases, the reduction in tax expenditures from the deletion of two items together would be smaller than the sum of the reductions considered separately. For example, if the deductibility of mortgage interest payments and homeowner property taxes were both repealed and the zero bracket amount (standard deduction) were left unchanged, more individuals who now itemize their deductions would opt for the zero bracket The reduction amount than if only one preference were repealed. in tax expenditures would therefore be lower from repealing both preferences together than the sum of the two estimates obtained from repealing each one separately. Total tax expenditures for each functional category, such as national defense and energy, are shown in this year's Budget. In making the estimates, all of these interaction effects were taken into accounts Note, however, that the Budget does not present a total of tax expenditures for all functional categories combined. This omission is not due to an inability to take all interactions into account for purposes of such a total. Rather, the omission is due to the fact that such a total carries little meaning. As noted above, tax expenditure estimates are based on the assumption that the programs are in place and that the level of These assumptions aggregate income and growth are unchanged. would clearly be wrong if all tax expenditure provisions were repealed. Further, tax expenditures represent only one method by which Government allocates resources in the economy to achieve public goals; a total for any particular method in isolation is therefore not very useful for Budget review and analysis. There is one other aspect of the measure of tax expenditures that should be noted. Tax expenditure estimates are measures of the difference between the cost of resources allocated under current law and the cost of the allocation which would take place under the assumption that each tax expenditure provision had never been in effects The estimates, therefore, generally larger amounts than would be saved in the first years of transition to a tax law without one of the special provisions' This is analogous to the "phase-out" likely to accompany reductions in outlay programs as previously authorized and appropriated funds are spent. Relative Efficienc of Tax Ex enditures Several factors must be considered to determine the efficiency of tax expenditures relative to other methods the Government uses to allocate resources in the economy to achieve public goals. Separate from the determination of the relative efficiency of methods, of course, a determination must be made of whether each program serves a useful public goal. Furthermore, there should be no illusion that somehow programs effected through the tax system are "cheaper" than other This is one reason why it is so important to measure programs. tax expenditures on an "outlay equivalent" basis. I will simply assume in the following that the usefulness and cost determinations One have been made. consideration in choosing a method to implement a is the level of Government administration required for the program to be effective. If little or no Government administration is required, and other conditions described below are met, the program might efficiently be designed as a tax expenditure. An example of such a program is the investment tax credit. However, if a high level of Government involvement in the program is required, such as is true, for example, of many agricultural programs, a direct outlay program may be far more efficient. A second consideration is the specific design of tax program Because of the graduation of income tax or deduction has more value to a high-bracket taxpayer than to a taxpayer in a lower bracket. is the reason, for example, that. some of the benefits ofThis the exclusion of interest on State and local bonds accrues to lenders, as I noted earlier. Credits, on the other hand, are of equal value to all taxpayers. Thus, generally, tax expenditure programs are more efficiently designed as credits, rather than as exclusions or deductions. expenditure rates, programs' an exclusion Third, the relative efficiency of a tax expenditure e may m or activity which is to receive the subsidy, For example, many low-income individuals have no taxablee income and therefore could only benefit. from a tax credit if wer e refundable. Further, to receive the refundable credit. ey would have to file an income tax return, which many would not oth otherwise have to do. A direct outlay or other program might theref ore be a much more efficient way to reach such groups' depend on the group Fourth, it must be remembered that the normal provisions of the income tax Code interact with, and therefore affect the value For example, an across-the-board rate cut of, tax expenditures. e. , the subsidy provided by, many tax changes the value of, If a stable subsidy, or one that should not depend expenditures' is required on tax rates and other features of the tax structure, for the efficient operation of the program, the program should not be framed as a tax expenditure. i. final consideration is that there is a hidden, although the tax system with too Tax expenditures complicate the tax many subsidy programs. system for taxpayers and the Internal Revenue Service, and contribute to the view (whether or not well founded) that the tax system is "unfair. " These compliance and perceived equity costs should be included in any assessment of the relative efficiency of tax expenditures. A very Bud real, cost involved in et Control of burdening Tax Ex enditures Given the importance of tax expenditures as a method of allocating resources in the economy in order to achieve public goals, there is naturally concern within the Administration and the Congress in exerting proper budget control over tax At present, this control is exerted in several expenditures. ways. Section 303 of the Budget Act prohibits the consideration of tax legislation effective for a fiscal year before the first Similarly, budget resolution for that year has been adopted. Section 311 of the Act prohibits tax legislation that conflicts Section with the revenue floor set by the second resolution. new that provides resolution 308(a) requires that every bill or or increased tax expenditures be accompanied by estimates for In addition, the current fiscal year and a five-year projection. Section 601 of the Act requires a list of tax expenditures to be included in the President's Budget, and similar lists are prepared annually by the Congressional Budget Office (under Section 308(c) of the Act), and by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation. These provisions provide some control, albeit indirect, over tax expenditures. and directly, however, tax expenditures More importantly are consistently subject to review during consideration of major tax legislation. Most recently, as I have noted, there were substantial changes made in several tax expenditure items in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. In addition, changes in tax current expenditure items are included in the Administration's tax proposals. A number of proposals have recently been made to require for tax expenditures, or to more formal Budget control procedures place explicit limitations on them. I believe these proposals Changes in tax expenditure are undesirable for several reasons. -10provisions should be based on long-run considerations of economic and equity, rather than on short-run Budget consider- efficiency ations. Especially for those tax expenditures that concern long-term investments such as housing and business plant and equipment, decisions are made for several years at a time and a stable set of tax laws is the refore essential. Furthermore, other policy instruments in addition to direct outlays, such as regulations and loan guarantee programs, are alternative ways to achieve the objectives of tax expenditures. is intended to allocate resources in Each of these instruments the economy in order to achieve public goals. A possible therefore, might be to consequence of limiting tax expenditures, not subject to the same is which increase off-budget spending direct outlays. In as are Act restraints under the Budget be replaced by even might expenditures tax certain areas, in order to achieve the same or similar Government regulations objectives. It should also be noted that there is not universal agreement on the definition and measurement of tax expenditures. This lack of agreement is not critical to the current Budget With an explicit procedures for controlling tax expenditures. limitation or more formalized control procedures, however, both the concept and the measurement of tax expenditures would have to be precisely defined. This would not be an easy task. of tax Even with precise definition and measurement however, severe difficulties would be encountered an explicit limitation or more formalized control procedures were imposed on tax expenditures. One such difficulty is that the normal provisions of the income tax Code interact with tax expenditure provisions. For example, when individual income tax expenditures, if rates are lowered or increased, the value of most tax expenditures changes' How would these changes be handled? A second type of difficulty would arise with some of the limitations that have been proposed, for example, limiting tax expenditures to a fixed percentage of net revenues. Such a limitation could be Codex' exceeded during a short-run downturn in economic activity. It would therefore become necessary to reduce tax expenditures or to increase taxes, steps which could prolong and deepen the downturn. Another difficulty with measures that would focus attention on "special" tax provisions, however defined and measured, is that it would take attention away from all other tax provisions. Thus, there would be a real danger that provisions such as those that allowed tax straddles would persist in the tax The conclusion to be drawn from such considerations is not, of course, that tax expenditures should be free from review and control. Instead, I conclude that because tax expenditures arise from special tax provisions. they are best -11reviewed and thereby controlled in the context of the entire tax Code, including the normal as well as the special tax provisions' This review takes place currently during consideration of tax legislation. No further Budget limitations or control procedures are required. ~Suama r Tax expenditures are one method by which the Government allocates resources in the economy in order to achieve public goals. Many tax expenditures, such as the investment credit and those that encourage pension savings, serve important public goals in an efficient manner. Others, such as the business and should be repealed. are desirable less credits, energy The concept of tax expenditures, properly defined, measured, and applied, is a useful tool for Budget analysis and control. The concept should not be confused with tax reform proposals, nor should estimates of tax expenditures be taken as equivalent to revenue gains from repeal. The efficiency of tax expenditures relative to other methods of implementing programs depends on the required level of Government program administration, whether the tax expenditure is in the form of an exclusion or deduction rather than a credit, the specific group or activity the program will subsidize, the effect of other tax provisions on the tax expenditure, and the effect of the tax expenditure provision on income tax compliance costs and the perceived equity of the tax system. While there has been some interest in imposing an explicit limitation or additional controls on tax expenditures, they would be difficult to implement and could seriously interfere with the desirable incentives provided by some tax expenditures' I will be pleased to answer any questions you may have. partmeni of ihe Treasury ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Te)ephone 566-2041 FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY EXPECTED AT 2:00 P. M EST We nes ay, Mare , 1982 8 ~ STATEMENT OF GREGORY BALLENTINE DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY (TAX ANALYSIS) DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON TRADE OF THE HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE of the Subcommittee: I am pleased to have the opportunity to appear before your Subcommittee in support of the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act. As the President noted in his transmittal message, this Act is an integrated program designed to improve the lives of the peoples of the Caribbean Basin. The tax provisions of the Act are a vital element of this integrated program. The tax incentives in this legislation may be divided into two parts: the investment tax credit designed to promote investment in Caribbean Basin countries and the investment tax credit and other tax incentives designed to restore the favored tax status of Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands, the two U-ST possessions in the region, as well as the other U. S. possessions . I will first address the Caribbean Basin aspects of the legislation. Before discussing the specifics of the legislation, it will be useful to describe the economic characteristics of the region and the current levels of U. S. investment in the region. of the parts of the legislation pertaining to My discussion Puerto Rico and other U. S. possessions will also include a review of the relevant economic context of these proposals. Mr. Chairman I. and Members The Caribbean Basin Characteristics of the Caribbean Basin The term "Caribbean Basin" as used in this discussion describes those Caribbean countries which are designated by the President as qualifying for the benefits of the Act. These may Economic R-679 in Central America and include Guyana, Suriname, and countries be with reference to all will remarks islands. My the Caribbean of Cuba. Although exception the the countries in the region with jurisdictions qualifying the by any reasonable standard all of countries, they are not. a homowould be classified as developing They share certain features, such as low per geneous group. dependcapita income, high unemployment, , lack of skilled le labor, manufacturing litt. very s, product. ence on one or a few primary activity, and small markets. But they vary widely in resources, institutions, A few and countries facilities for foreign have investment, profitable mineral in Jamaica, . resources Suriname, (oil in and and Tobago and bauxite base (the Some have a reasonably sound. agricultural trade developed have Some Guatemala). Dominican Republic and British (the Some Rica) Costa and (Panama services sectors Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and the Trinidad Guyana). . or Netherlands Antilles) are able to generate income from marketing Others have practically no cash tax savings to nonresidents. Although tourism economy (Barbuda, St . Lucia, and St. . Vincent) is a major industry in the region, it. cannot. be relied on to Some are support the economies of all the Caribbean countries. Kingdom United the of not independent. countries, but dependencies Netherlands the of or Islands) part. the British Virgin (e.g. , (Netherlands Antilles). . 'Phe languages spoken include Dutch, English, French, Spanish, Communications The currency units differ. and various dialects. and transportation facilities range from extremely poor to excellent. Political and economic stability vary, but are generally fragile. The total population of the area, 41 million, is The most populous governed by over 20 separate governments. country is Guatemala, with about, 7 million inhabitants; the smallest are the Turks and Caicos Islands, with less than 10, 000 persons. Per capita income varies from less .than $300 per year in Haiti and St. Vincent to more than $3000 annually in the Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago. A discouraging demographic factor is the high percentage of the population under 15 years is dependent for support, upon a relatively unskilled work force. old which U. ST Investment in the Caribbean Basin At the end of 1980, U. S. direct investment (equity investment in foreign affiliates plus net outstanding loans to foreign affiliates) in the Caribbean Basin jurisdictions had a value of $10. 2 billion, ignoring the Netherlands Antilles where a negative investment was recorded due to the borrowings of U. S. parent corporations through Netherlands Antilles affiliatesOW that amount, $5. 9 billion, or 60 percent, was in the Bahamas and about $1.0 Panama. Of the remaining $4. 3 billion in investment, billion was in Trinidad and Tobago, $2. 3 billion in Jamaica, the other Caribbean islands, Guyana, and Suriname, and the remaining A significant in Central American countries. $. 1-0 billion portion of the investment in Jamaica, Suriname, and Trinidad and U. S. direct investTobago is in mining (bauxite) or petroleum. ment in manufacturing in the region at the end of 1980 was about $1.0 billion, or approximately 10 percent of the total U. S. investment. Over 70 percent of the investment classified as was in Panama and the Bahamas. Majority owned manufacturing Caribbean basin affiliates of U. S. companies planned about $680 million in capital expenditures during 1980, of which $480 million was in mining manufacturing. II ' and petroleum and $65 million in of the Pro osal Re uirements of an Effective Tax Incentive To be effective, a U S tax incentive must cause more U. S. investment to take place in the Caribbean Basin than would otherwise occur. An incentive does this by raising the rate of return on investments, making some profitable which were previously unacceptable . An effective incentive should also attract projects which will continue to benefit the recipient economy after the expiration of the incentive period. The incentive should promote an increase in local production and employment in the Caribbean Basin, rather than simply encouraging transfers of financial or intangible assets. This can best be achieved by encouraging investment in real physical capital. An increased transfer of financial assets to the Caribbean Basin will contribute to economic growth in the Caribbean only if it increases the or reduces its cost. This growth amount of physical investment objective will be frustrated if the increased inflow of funds into the Caribbean is offset by an increased outflow of funds for Outlines ~ investment ~ outside the Caribbean. Descri tion of the Pro osed Le islation extension for five years of The Act includes an unprecedented the investment tax credit to property which is used predominantly in certain Caribbean Basin countries and which would otherwise qualify for the domestic investment tax credit. A Caribbean Basin country will qualify for this benefit if, first, it has been designated by the President as a country entitled to the benefits of the Act, and second, it enters into a bilateral executive agreement with the United States for exchange of purposes . information for tax administration rules and limitations which apply to the allowance of the in the investment tax credit for property used predominantly Caribbean Basin to property. generally apply will United States credit is generally available for up to The regular investment ten percent (10%) of the cost, of tangible personal property and other tangible property (generally not, including buildings or structural components) used in connection with manufacturing, A few production, agriculture or certain other activities. rehabilitated narrow categories of property, such as qualified buildings and qualified t, imber property, will not be eligible for the credit, if located in a Caribbean Basin country because of the specific statutory provisions governing their eligibility for the credit, . In our judgment, it. is not advisable to extend the credit, for these specialized categories of property. The provision reiterates that, this is a special to provide economic assistance in an extraordinary situation. At the end of five years consideration may be given to an extension of the credit. on a bilateral basis through a tax treaty. The sunset measure intended Relative Advanta A wage credit, subsidy es of the Investment and were considered Tax Credit tax sparing, along with the investment tax as possible incentives for the Caribbean Since the Caribbean Basin needs to develop the skills of labor force, a labor oriented subsidy has considerable intuitive appeal. This type of incentive, however, does not increase the capital-labor ratio and therefore it. does not improve the long run product, ivity of the labor force. It is temporary incentive that ceases to have effect as soon as wages are no longer subsidized. A country merely tends to become dependent, on the wage subsidy, with little prospect, for the type of growth and development that will lead toward economic selfsufficiency. The recipient countries themselves may resent. a wage subsidy. They may view it as a "colonialist, ic" attempt by the United States to restrict .the Caribbean Basin to the role of a supplier of low wage goods. For these reasons, it is preferable to rely on a capital incentive which indirectly encourages the employment of more labor and which will improve the overall productivity of labor. Basin. its indigenous Tax sparing is often proposed as an investment incentive for regions like the Caribbean. Tax sparing allows a credit against domestic taxes for taxes an investor is spared from paying when a foreign country reduces or waives tax liabilities as an investment incentive. There are two major economic objections to tax sparing as an investment incentive. The first is that tax sparing is a reward to profits earned during the incentive period, regardless of whether such profits come from prior or new investments. That is, no new investment is needed to obtain the benefits. Thus, there is no assurance that tax sparing will contribute to economic growth by increasing real physical capital investment in the recipient country. Secondly, tax sparing invites non-productive investments, such as the transfer of financial or other intangible assets and the assignment of artificially high profits to such assets, in order to generate tax spared income. In contrast, the investment tax credit which we are proposing will encourage the placement of machinery and equipment in the Caribbean Basin. The credit depends directly on an investor making a productive investment in the Caribbean Basin. By providing workers with additional capital, it will increase labor productivity and economic growth and development in the region. Finally, the investment tax credit is independent of the foreign tax credit, requires no revenue sacrifice by the developing. countries, and is relatively simple. Potential U. S. investors in the Caribbean Basin region are familiar with the credit as it applies to domestic investments' Its effectiveness will not be undercut by the, uncertainty which would accompany any totally new incentive. III. Details of the Pro osal' Qualif in Caribbean Basin Countries Basin country which is designated by the A Caribbean President as eligible for the benefits of the Act will qualify for the extension of the credit only if the country enters into a bilateral executive agreement with the United States to exchange such information as is necessary and appropriate to carry out and, enforce the tax laws of the two countries . of the Exchange of tax information assists the administration tax laws of both the United States and the qualifying country. The tax administrators of the Caribbean Basin countries will have access to information from the IRS regarding their taxpayers who engage in economic activities in the United States and thereby should strengthen their own tax administration. This self-help aspect of the measure is consistent with the overall concept of the Caribbean Basin Initiative. Moreover, the United States will itself require access to such i'nformation to adequately administer the tax credit, particularly where a "pass-through" credit is claimed by a five percent (5%) or greater U. S. shareholder in a foreign corporation. (The "pass-through" aspect of the proposal is discussed below. ) in the Caribbean Basin region both for avoidance and used been are tax havens which have believe that it. is appronot do We laws. evasion of U. S. tax S. tax incentives unless U. from benefit to priate for countries they are willing to cooperate with the United States in matters In addition, several countries of tax administration. Exchan e of Information A reements authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to . negotiate and conclude the exchange of information agreements 'kinds what regarding discretion accorded is While the Secretary the exchange of information will be included within the scope ofminimum certain Act imposes the provisions, of information standards for such agreements . The exchange of information provisions in the agreements must. scope tax informat, ion pertaining to "thirdinclude within their " of countries that is, nationals or residents country persons, country that Basin Caribbean the or States United the other than with is a party to the agreement. This approach is consistent. the U. S. our present tax treaty policy, embodied in Article 26 of a that, policy, In accordance with Model Income Tax Treaty. jurisdiction with restrictions on disclosure of information regarding such third country persons ~ould be required to modify The same principle applies with respect to such restrictions. disclosure of information regarding ownership of bank accounts or Nost. countries do not. place restrictions on share ownership. disclosure of such information; such limitations are characteristic primarily of jurisdictions which have organized themselves as tax havens. The legislation of information agreements will be terminable on reasonable notice by either party. This will permit the credit to be terminated with respect to future investment. in the event that. the President revokes his designation of the country as a country eligible for the benefits of the Act, The Secretary may incorporate by reference in an exchange of information agreement the exchange of information provisions of an existing income tax treaty with a Caribbean Basin country, provided such treaty provisions otherwise satisfy the requirements of the statute. Our more recent tax treaties, -such as the recently ratified treaty with Jamaica, will satisfy such standards and we would be desirous of extending this tax incentive to these treaty partners as expeditiously as possible . It should be clearly understood that exchange of information agreements may be entered into with a country whether or not. the country has a tax treaty with the United States. The exchange ~ It is of information agreements signature. The text of the agreements will, of course, be transmitted to Congress not later than sixty days after the agreement has been signed, in accordance with the prescriptions of the Case Act (1 U. ST CD section 112b). expected that the exchange will generally Predominant become effective on Use Property used predominantly outside the United States generally is not eligible for the investment tax credit. The Act establishes an additional exception to this rule for Caribbean Basin property; that is, property used predominantly in one or more qualifying Caribbean Basin countries is made eligible for the credit. Under existing Treasury regulations the test for test determining predominant use is the physical location Thus, if property or equipment is located in one or more qualifying Caribbean Basin countries during more than 50 percent of the taxable year, the predominant use test will be satisfied. The same regulations also provide that the determination of whether a credit is allowable with respect to any property is made only with respect to the year the property is placed in service. If property is thereafter used predominantly outside the United States the credit taken with respect to such property will be subject to recapture. A credit taken with respect to qualifying Caribbean Basin property will be subject to recapture if the property is used predominantly outside one or more qualifying Caribbean Basin countries and the United States. The Act provides an exception to this recapture rule in the case where a qualifying Caribbean Basin country no longer constitutes a qualifying country because the President' s designation of the country as eligible for the benefits of the Act is terminated or the exchange of information agreement is terminated. In such a circumstance, property which continues to be used predominantly in the country in succeeding taxable years without interruption will not be subject to the recapture rules. It would not be equitable to subject the credit for such property to recapture because of an event which is not within the taxpayer's control. of Credit to Five Percent U. S. Shareholder of oration Forei n Cor To summarize my discussion to this point, the credit will be allowed to a UPS. citizen, resident, or corporation that invests in property that is used predominantly in one or more qualifying Caribbean Basin countries after the enactment of the Act. Under present law, however, the credit, would not be available to a U. S. Pass-throu h that makes an equity investment in a foreign corporaWhere, for reasons of tion that invests in qualifying property. local law or accepted business practice, it is necessary that the business activity be carried on through a "host country" corporation, allowance of the credit solely with respect, to property a U. S. person would not constitute an effective owned directly-by investment, incentive. shareholder this problem and ensure the effectiveness of the incentive, we have designed a passallow the credit. on a current basis would which mechanism through to a U. S. shareholder that, owns five percent or more in value of a foreign corporation's stock, subject to certain limitations. credit. is computed with respect to the The pass-through shareholder' s pro rata share of the foreign corporation' s investThe shareholder's ment in Caribbean Basin property. pro rata share of such investment is limited for this purpose, however, to the amount of the shareholder's actual additional equity investment in the corporation after the date of enactment of the Act. The purpose of this limitation the incentive in . these fi. s to key circumstances to new equity investment, which is permanent in nature and subordinate to debt claims or trade payables. In our view, new equity investment. is the kind of investment. which is likely to be responsive to the credit and which will form the base for continued future growth in the Caribbean Basin To surmount. credit. as an investment economies. The limitations on the pass-through credit also take into account the concern that the credit is allowed currently while income earned by a foreign corporation is generally not subject to U. S. taxation until it, is repatriated as a dividend to the U S. shareholder. It is for this reason that. the pass-through credit is not allowed with respect to investment of retained earnings of the foreign corporation in Caribbean Basin property. The foreign corporation's investment must. be attributable, directly or indirectly, to new equity investment by the U. ST shareholder. This protects against, the possibility of an initial profitable investment, generating a continuous series of credits for a shareholder while U. S. tax on the income generated by such investment is deferred. Summar View of Investment Tax Credit, The five year extension of the credit I have described is an innovative, carefully targeted incentive for new physical investment in Caribbean Basin countries . This proposal represents as powerful a tax incentive for investment as is feasible without disturbing the integrity of our tax system. Its revenue cost, will be about $50 million in 1983. Relation of Extension of Credit to U. S. Tax Treaties The United States has a number of tax treaties with countries in the Caribbean Basin region, including extensions of certain of our older treaties with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. It is our longstanding tax treaty policy to provide U. S. source basis tax benefits to the residents of the treaty partner and to obtain tax benefits for U. S. residents . Ne do not, as a general rule, limit our residence basis taxation of our citizens and residents . The decision to provide a tax credit incentive for investment in qualifying Caribbean Basin countries is generally at variance with our treaty policy of not limiting (or reducing) U. S. taxation of our citizens and residents. This decision highlights the special nature of our relationship to the Caribbean Basin region and the importance we attach to this Initiative. Countries outside the Caribbean Basin region will, no doubt, seek similar benefits through tax treaties . The United States has exchanged notes with a number of developing country tax in which we acknowledge the partner's desire to incentives in the treaty, but state that the United States is not in a position to agree to such incentives' The letters go on to state that if policies change in this regard in the future, the United States will reopen discussions with a view to amending the treaty to include an investment incentive. These countries may view the extension of the tax credit as such a change in our policy. A decision regarding further extensions of the investment tax credit, both to existing and new treaty partners, would not be made without full consultation with interested Congressional committees. treaty partners include investment tax credit for Caribbean The extension of the investment Basin property is not inconsistent with this Administration's strong policy against use of our tax treaties for conduit investments in the United States by residents from countries other than our treaty partner. Our opposition to such tax treaty abuse is tax policy and consistent with the objectives sound international The purpose of the Initiative of our Caribbean Basin Initiative. is served by encouraging increases in productive economic activity and self-sustaining growth in the Caribbean Basin countries . This purpose is not served by creating or sustaining tax haven activity which is contrary to U. S. tax treaty policy, undermines of the Internal Revenue Code, and administration and fosters an increased dependence by the tax haven country on the United States . the operation IV. Puerto Rico and Other U. S. Possessions essential counterpart to the proposals to assist Basin countries, the Act includes important tax incentive and revenue measures for Puerto Rico and the U-S. Some of these measures will also benefit other Virgin Islands. U S, possessions As an Caribbean ~ ~ -10Back round of the Legislative Measures Affectinq the Possessions have a special Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands the United States which this Adminihistoric relationship with S- tax policy has long stration recognizes and values. U.investment in Puerto Rico, the extended favored tax treatment to The passage of possessions. U. S. Virgin Islands and other U. S. substantially, however, (ERTA), 1981 the Economic Recovery Act of incenthese of effectiveness the reduced but unintentionally, to available credit, tax investment the Further, making t, ives. encourage investment in qualifying Caribbean Basin countries will investment in the Caribbean Basin, possibly to the detrimentthatof It, is essential Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands' in the expected share Puerto Rico and the U. .S. Virgin Islands region. Special this in stability economic progress, growth, and so possessions these for provided be investment incentives must. the induced by Basin Caribbean the in that the development Initiative does not occur at the expense of Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands. The importance of the measures contained in this legislation facing Puerto is underscored by the adverse economic situation 22 approximately rate is unemployment. Rico. The Puerto Rican in Investment decreasing. of prospect, immediate percent, with no was inflation, for adjusting after in 1980, and equipment plant only one-half the value of investment. in 1970. Between 1980 and 1981, the number of contractual agreements between the Puerto and potent, ial non-local Rican Economic Development Administration contractual agreenew in This drop investors dropped sharply. plants beginning manufacturing ments indicates that the number of is likely to future immediate in the operation in Puerto Rico fall. for the impact, of ERTA and the Caribbean Basin is proposing to extend certain tax the Administration incentives for investment. -to the U. S. possessions and to modify the rum excise tax payment arrangements with Puerto Rico and the U. ST Vi Virgin Islands. Although the tax incentives will be available to the U. S. Virgin Islands and all other possessions, their principal impact will be with regard to business operations in Puerto Rico. To adjust, Initiative, ~ .S . Tax Polic Toward Puerto Rico The encouragement of manufacturing investment in puerto Rico is a longstanding tenet of Federal tax policy. This principle is rooted in the belief that increased capital investment is the most effective way of encouraging real economic growth in Puerto Rico. Generally speaking, the Federal tax laws have encouraged Existin U -11Puerto Rican investment by exempting income from such investment from U. S. taxation. Puerto Rico has, in turn, granted tax holidays for most manufacturing operations. Thus, U. S. manufacturing corporations operating in Puerto Rico generally pay little or no U-S. or Puerto Rican tax. Under section 936 of the Code, a U. S. corporation (the 936 corporation) deriving income from Puerto Rico is subject to Federal tax on its worldwide income, but a special credit available under section 936 fully offsets the Federal tax on income from a trade or business in Puerto Rico or from "qualified possessions source investment income. " A U. S. corporation which owns at least 80 percent of a section 936 corporation is also exempt from Federal tax on the dividend income from the 936 corporation. Since 1948, Puerto Rico has had a complementary program of tax exemption, called Operation Bootstrap, under which exemptions from Puerto Rican tax have been offered as incentives to U. S. companies to invest in manufacturing plants in Puerto Rico ~ Prior to the passage of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, section 936 provided a significant incentive to invest in Puerto Rico compared to the United States . By reducing the effective corporate tax burden on U. S. investment through the Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS) and liberalizing the investment tax credit, ERTA erodes the relative value of the Puerto Rican tax incentive. Once the provisions of ERTA are will be amount of U. ST investment substantial a fully effective, taxed nearly as favorably as Puerto Rican investments, thus eliminating any tax incentive for investing in Puerto Rico. The Administration proposes to restore the incentive to invest in Puerto Rico by extending the benefits of ACRS and the investment tax credit to U. S. corporations operating in Puerto Rico and the Restoration of the incentive will require other possessions. that the full investment tax credit plus one-half of the ACRS deductions be made available to a U. S. corporation owning a section 936. corporation. Descri tion of Tax Incentives present law, property used predominantly outside the United States generally is not eligible for the investment tax credit. However, property owned by a domestic corporation and in a U. ST possession qualifies for the credit used predominantly unless the domestic corporation has in effect an election to claim a Puerto Rico or possession tax credit under section 936 (a section 936 corporation) or is entitled to the benefits of section 934(b), relating to reduction in tax liability incurred to the Virgin Islands (a section 934(b) corporation). Also, in a U. S. property owned by a AS ~ citizen and used predominantly Under U is qualifies for the credit, unless the U. S. citizen taxaU. S. limit which sections entitled to the benefits of Code tion of income derived in a U. S. possession. The Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act would allow the investment tax credit, for any property owned by a section 936 or 934(b) corporation or by a U. S. citizen entitled to the benefits of such Code sections and in a possession of the United States. which is used predominantly The Act also provides that property used in a possession would be eligible for the recovery lives generally available for property not used predominantly outside the U. S. Thus, it. will extend ACRS to property used in a possession. Because section 936 and 934(b) corporations would be unable use these tax benefits, the Act provides for a pass-through of to the investment tax credit and fifty percent of the cost, recovery deductions attributable to property owned by a section 936 or a domestic section 934(b) corporation to certain U. S. corporations that together own 80 percent, or more of the stock of the section Thus, a U. S. corporation that would 936 or 934(b) corporations. be a member of an affiliated group that includes the section 936 or domestic 934(b) corporation (but for special rules excluding section 936 and 934(b) corporations from an affiliated group), tax credit and fifty percent of would be allowed the investment the cost recovery deductions otherwise allowable to the section 936 or domestic 934(b) corporation. Effect of Pro osal These investment incentive provisions will reduce the cost of capital and promote real economic growth in Puerto Rico, the U. ST This proposal will Virgin Islands, and other U. S. possessions. restore the relative preference for investment in Puerto Rico that existed prior to the passage of ERTA. It reaffirms the Congressional policy of encouraging investment in Puerto Rico and provides a significant, incentive to invest in the plant and equipment which is vital to economic growth of the possessions. Its revenue cost vill be about 955 million in 1983, rising to possession . $100 million annually by 1985- Dis osition of Excise Taxes on Rum law, the Internal Revenue Code imposes an exAll taxes collected under the Internal Revenue Code on rum produced in Puerto Rico or the U. S. Virgin Islands and transported to the United States (less the estimated amount necessary for payment of refund and drawbacks), are paid to Puerto Rico or the U. S. Virgin Islands, respectively. Under cise tax present on rum. At present, Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands supply about 90 percent of the U. S. rum market. Rum produced in Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands enters the United States duty -13free in import duties on rum produced in other Basin countries, provided for in the trade title of the Act, will reduce the Puerto Rican and U. S. Virgin Islands' share of the U. S. rum market. This will adversely affect the rum industry in Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands and reduce the amount of U. S. excise tax collections which they receive. ~ The reduction Caribbean In order to maintain this revenue source for the islands, the legislation provides that all excise taxes collected at the current tax rates on rum imported into the United States from any country (less the estimated amount necessary for payment of refunds and drawbacks) will be paid over to the treasuries of Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands. The amount per proof gallon paid over will not exceed the amount per proof gallon would have been paid over if the rum had been produced in Puerto Rico or the U. S. Virgin Islands. The Secretary of the Treasury will prescribe by regulations a formula for the division of these tax collections between Puerto Rico and the U. ST Virgin Islands. The estimated revenue cost of this provision is about $18 million in 1983. which oOo of the Treasury apartment FOR IMMEDIATE March 16, 1982 U. S. AND ~ Washington, RELEASE SWEDEN D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 CONTACT: GEORGE G. ROSS (202) 566-2041 TO CONDUCT INCOME TAX TREATY NEGOTIATIONS The Treasury Department today announced that representatives of the United States and Sweden will meet in Washington during the week of March 22, 1982 to renegotiate the income tax treaty between the two countries which has been in effect since 1939. Since the treaty has been in effect for so many years, the negotiations will encompass a complete review of all of its will take into account changes in provisions. The discussions in the model the tax laws of both countries and developments for Fconomic income tax treaties published by the Organization Cooperation and Development (OECD) and by the United States. to provide information or comments on tax wishing related to the forthcoming negotiations is invited to do writing to A. W. Granwell, International Tax Counsel, U. S. Anyone matters so by Treasury Department, Room 3064, Washington, This notice will appear 1982. in the Federal o 0 o R-680 D. C. 20220. Register on March 18, , pariment of the Treasury FOR INNEDIATE ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-20m March 17, 1982 RELEASE RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 2-YEAR NOTES The Department of the Treasury has accepted $5, 254 million of 10. 507 million of tenders received from the public for the 2-year notes, Series Q-1984, auctioned today. The notes will be issued March 31, 1982, and mature March 31, 1984. The interest coupon rate on the notes will be 14-1/89-. The range of accepted competitive bids, and the corresponding prices at the 14-1/8~ coupon rate are as follows: $ Prices 100. 076 Bids Lowest yield yield yield Highest Average Tenders at the high 14. 08'-o 1/ 14. 16% 14. 14% yield were allotted 99. 941 99. 975 48%. TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED Location Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury Tot al s Rece ived $ 97, 510 8, 075, 120 85, 600 201, 185 114, 940 108, 650 1, 048, 335 128, 000 59, 155 91, 795 61, 220 (In Thousands) Accepted 69, 495 3, 938, 735 67, 000 175, 435 93, 340 91, 620 281, 395 115, 735 54, 655 91, 295 53, 620 212, 580 8, 615 426, 740 8, 615 $ 10, 506, 865 $5, 253, 520 The $ 5, 254 million of accepted tenders includes $1, 327 million of noncompetitive tenders and $3i592 million of competitive tenders from private investors. It also includes $335 million of tenders at the average price from Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities in exchange for maturing securities. In addition to the $ 5 ' 254 million of tenders accepted in the auction process, $600 million of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks for their own account in exchange for maturing securities, and $225 million of tenders were accepted at the average price from Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities for new cash. 1/ Excepting 1 tender of $25, 000. epartment of the Treasury ~ Washington, For Release Upon Deliver p. m. Expec e a : D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204% Address by Beryl W. c'prinkel before the Conference on clupply Side Economics Atlanta, Georgia The Honorable March Goad 18, 1982 Afternoon. to be down here in Atlanta with you. I think it is fair to say that this city has definitely become —the hub of on their way In fact people joke that when they die the south. in chance planes have to will to heaven (or wherever) they It is good Atlanta! Judging a from the program certified supply sider — stay awhile in Atlanta. you here, it appears that in order to be also need to chanae planes — and I know that Dave Meiselman spoke to you yesterday about the Ho I relationship. between supply side and monetarist economics' am not aoing to dwell on it. But I would like to kick in my two cents on the subject because there is such a pervasive on this point. misunderstanding these days that How many times do you read in the newspapers Fed's tiaht money the and fiscal policy the Administration's other? each policy are runnina head long into And how many times do you read that the supply side and the policies are fighting monetarist side of the Administration's with each other? In spite of the frequency of their appearance in the media, Not only are supply side both of these statements are untrue. is essential that they go it compatible, policies and monetarist together. R-682 There are three great challenges to economic policy. The up with the riaht policy in the first first challanae is coming And the third is implementing is place. The second that the public a such way in that policy communicating understands For those who still think there is some kind of conflict with the supply side and monetarist economics, perhaps it i~s use uZ to think of the situation this way. it. it. heart and soul of any economy are the freedom, opportunity, and incentives which it provides to individual are based on the initiative. Monetary and supply side economics source of wealth and the is initiative that private proposition Both theories argue that. government higher standards of livings policies can be a significant detriment to private initiative and both seek to reduce this perverse government influence. The characterized as the supply side of our economic policy deals with the effect government spending and financing has on the willingness and ability of individuals to The monetarist component take a chance on productive venturese deals with money in the belief that. high and variable inflation And that is detrimental to work, savings and investment. inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The goal of the supply side to increase the and monetary elements of. our policy is the same: productive potential of tHe economy. The only difference is that they focus on different aspects of government behavior. What has been is carefully designed to rid Beaqanomics us of stagflation limiting money growth and inflation, while increasing to produce more real goods and services. Let me Reaganomics: now turn to the subject that The Monetary Component. I was asked incentives by to speak on- First, the monetary component, of the President's overall economic policy must, be seen in the light of our single over riding objective. And that, objective is to obtain real and sustained non-inflationary economic growth in this country. That, is what we are all about on the economic front. want inflation to keep coming down and to down. We interest rates to keep coming down. We want stay to balance the budget. And we want to reduce Federal spending as a percent of CNP. But all of these objectives — while very important in their own right - are keyed in to the over riding goal of achieving We want strong, sustained economic growth in America. Now, achieving role does money and monetary policy play in that objective? In order to answer that auestion, what we clear on what money is and, perhaps more importantly, purpose is to it is not. Money is a construct, whose sole faciiitate trade and to improve the efficiency of markets. It exists to provide a consistent measure of the relative value of real resources, both currently and over time. In sum, it is the Money is not the ball game; it is only the medium of exchange. ticket into the stadium. maximum efficiency of our monetary It is our view that thestraightforward policy: moderate, a simple, requires system must be what . ~stead growth in the money supply. Earlier this year, the Fed announced money growth targets for 1982. They are, xn our view, appropriate target ranges and the endorsement of them is total. Administration's are, however, lingering doubts in the financial markets There are a variety of that this policy will be maintained. is one of the major condition reasons for these fears, and this high-inflation/low-growth from a obstacles in the transition growth. economy to one of low-inflation/high Imagine for a moment, that investors, bankers — the public at large — was very confident that money growth was going to be sure Whether there was an election, whether and steady and gradual. whether there was a budget deficit; there was a recession; It was going to stay the same. whatever. make any that is, the belief itself Would that difference in terms of our goal of ancreased real arowth? I Because savings, investment and capital submit that it would. expansion decisions would be made in an environment where "the Other element of the unknown" was significantly reduced. countries, such as Japan and Germany, have that type of environment and they have enjoyed enviable rates of inflation and interest as well as economic growth. They have established that environment because they have a sound, credible monetary policy. Let's look at it this way: The whole point of monetary policy is to establish and maintain an environment where the A positive effects of supply side actions can be maximized. the of sound monetary policy simply sets up the nominal side equation so that supply side economics can really qo to work on the real output side. And that is why it is essential that supply side economics go hand in hand with a stable monetary policy. One cannot work without the other. There — — interest rates consists of three parts: the real rate, the inflation premium and an uncertainty premium. Deficits, if they are very .large, do tend to put upward pressure on the real rate This effect, which has historically been around 3-4 percent. the inflation is conseauence more Of however, is slight. Xf a lender thinks the rate of inflation will be lower premium. in the future, he can reduce his overall rates and still expect, to make a buck. Today, slow, steady money growth and declining inflation are putting strong downward pressure on the other two componentse Now, how do we achieve this stable money policy'P of financial innovation in recent, years has the idea that monetary policy has been (or i, s being) xendered ineffective as a tool for economic stabi3. ization. However, the evidence that, is provided to support. this conclusion is largely anecdotal. People look at the rapid growth of new types of tx'ansfex accounts and money market mutual funds, and conclude that they must, have a fundamental impact on monetary The burst. reinforced relationships. The implication of all these anecdotes is that. the nature of 'money" in our economy is changing so xapidly that either (1) the Fedex'al Reserve can no longer define money, let alone control adeguately, or (2) controlling money, possible, is no longex' a if useful policy. it all these changes are undeniably going on and are important, they do not lead eithex to the conclusion that the Federal Resexve's ability to conduct monetary policy is being hampered, ox to the conclusion that the economic impact, of monetary policy has been weakened. Effective monetary policy actions reauire only that there exist, some economic variablebe it the money supply, the monetary base, or the price of carrots —that awhile meets two conditions: First, it must be controllable -- and ideally with some recision by the Federal Reserve. condition eliminates ot of potential candidates, including This the price of carxots. Second, it needs to be an economic variable that is related in a reliable way to the economy. — Consider the first condition. Relative to the thousands of pieces of economic data that we regularly collect in this country, there are but, a handful of economic variables that. the Federal Reserve can control to some degree. That small group includes, of course, several measures of the money supply, monetary base, and several measures of bank reserves1 sh;-=", ]d a add that some would also include interest rates or bank credit as candidates, but in my view the Federal Reserve cannot effectively control either with an acceptable level of precision over the long run. Certainly the Federal Reserve cannot control total credit. opinion, the monetary base is a useful and reliable of the monetary actions of the Federal Reserve. The base is simply the sum of certain items on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and since it can exactl control the largest asset (its portfolio of government secure mes) the monetary base can be closely controlled even in the short run. This is less true of the money stock and the precision of control declines as we move from M1 out to the broader money measures, M2 or M3. It is certainly true that financial innovations can change the assets that constitute transaction balances in our economy. At times, these changes have necessitated chances in the definitions of money, such as in 1981 with the introduction of nationwide NOW accounts. But with the information, and technical expertise available to the Federal Reserve, such adjustments can be, and have been, made. The particular menu of items which is included in the measure of "money" is not the most important issue. Instead, the major concern is to define a monetary aaaegate that the Federal Reserve can control. In measure my — Financial innovation has no effect on controlling the monetary base. Despite the large growth of NOW accounts in 1981, the ability of the Federal Reserve to control the average growth of M1 was apparently unimpaired. relationship between the monetary base and M1 has extremely stable over the past decade, despite the much talked about increased pace of financial innovation. If one looks at the trends over the past decade, one will find that the link between the base and- the money supply did not become less predictable as the pace of financial innovation has auickened. If financial changes were interfering with the Fed' s ability to control M1 we would observe increased variation between changes in the base, which the Fed can control exactly, and money growth. shows that this is simply The stability of the money multiplier not the case. The remained it to my second condition: that once we control money, be predictably and reliably related to the economic If financial innovation variables we really want to influence. has reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy, we would expect to see greater variability in the relationship between money and Now, must GNP; that is, velocity. from one auarter to velocity does vary substantially over periods variation the next, it, has shown remarkably little arowth of 3.1 txend a constant of several quarters and has hadThere this that, sian no percent per. year since 1959.in recentis years by financial relationship has been upset While innovationo innovation has been a clear effect of recent financial of various measuxes of growth of rates wide divergence among the of This is nothing new. Since N2 contains a number money. have rates interest in variations interest, -sensitive components, N1. of that from diverae to P2 of arowth always caused the and other Before the introduction of money market certificates qrowth would N2 rate of interest, items that pay a market-related savinqs out of slow when interest rates rose as funds were drawn Now, with the relaxation accounts and into market instruments. in N2 of instruments. inclusion of interest rate ceilings and the that pay a market. return, N2 gro~s more rapidly than N1 as interest rates rise. This was the case during 1981, when N2 qrew much more xapidly than N1B. However, this does not mean that. the efficacy of monetary policy has been diminished because when N2 qrowth divexges from N1, GHP (which is what, we want to influence) has not, followed the path of N2, but instead has continued to follow (defined to include NOW accounts). That, is, the N1 growth, x'eliable and predictable relationship between N1 arowth and GNP One is not chanqed by divergent experience only reaffirms this. arowth growth in N2. The 1981 Differing rates of arowth in N1 and N2 typically lead to auestions and concerns about which monetary aggregate is the better guide to monetary actions. Returnina to the two conditions I listed earlier, the money aaareqate that, is most controllable by the Federal Reserve and most xeliably related to activity is, either criterion, N1. . At the present time, I see no need for changes in regulations or in the Federal Reserve's powers to compensate for the effects of financial innovation. Arguments for changes in regulation might, also be based on issues of equity between types of financial institutions and organizations. Whatever the motive —whether out of perceived concern about monetary control or about, equity -- action to stop or reduce the effects of financial innovation usually involve some addition to, or extension of, government regulation. It is important to recognize that much of' the financial innovation we have witnessed in recent years has been in res onse to regulation. None) Market Nutual Funds are probably the most successful example f such innovation. If we have slow, steady money growth, this will -.voramly affect investment decisions and contribute to lower rates of ~+crest, economic by , . There is a rather subtle shift taking place in America. In periods of accelerating inflation -- which is what we had until last year -- real assets tend to have a greater real rate of return than financial assets. As a result, over the last several years, savvy investors have tended to move out of such things as stocks and bonds and into such things as houses, land and antiques. there Conversely, in periods of decelerating inflation, which is now, is a tendency for investors institutions and individual — -- to shift their portfolios somewhat from real assets to financial assets. The reason for the shift, of course, is that investors see a shift in the rate of return of one category of assets relative to the other category. I am not saying that everyone is selling rugs and condominiums and buying stock. But there is some of that going on. And in a 4 trillion dollar economy -- which we are on the verge of having -- a shift of 1 or 2 or 3 percentage points puts tens of billions of dollars into the system in the form of expanded potential credit. Thanks to declining inflation, that phenomenon is already happening, and additional credit needed for economic expansion is Volatility in policy delays desired movement into forming rapidly. households stocks and bonds. Conclusion Let me sum up then, in a very brief fashion, what we have here. First, the monetary component of Reaganomics is critical to tne The old garden-and-soil analogy is applicable here. overall program. is sound. The The supply side promise of real growth and prosperity incentive effects will work in America in the 1980's just as they have worked hundreds of times before in our own country and in other countries' But they will not work unless there is a fertile, stable monetary You can have the best seeds in the world, but they will environment. not grow without the proper soil. Secondly, the Fed can control the money supply and therefore the If you look at the data you environment" for the economy. will see the following relationships: "monetary Inflation, nominal GNP and interest rates follow Ml growtn. follows the growtn of the monetary base. And if it chose, control the base -- to the could, the Federal Reserve are of this approach, I say "Try it, who skeptical To those penny. " you' ll like Nl growth, in turn, it. Let me that history will record this Administration -- high growth Administration. inherited a pretty tough situation. conclude by saying as a low inflation But please remember, -- low we interest rate felt like and found I first went to Washington, on a tour of an art gallery alone in a room of modern sculpture. Staring broken glass, and tangled shapes, one of tgqg Don Regan and, two teenage boys who were You know, when themselves at, the twisted pipes, said, ."Let's get out of here before they accuse us of wrecking this place!" We were tempted to leave, but, we stayed, and we are staying. And in the last twelve months we have had to spend a great, deal of But we time repairing the wreckage from the last Administration. are now on a sure, steady course toward low inflation, lower interest rates and real economic growth in America. For us fully to realize our potential, we must have less volatility in monetary growth, Thank you. department of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE March 18, 1982 RELEASE Unblocking ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204% Contact: Stephen Hayes 566-2041 of Czechoslovak Assets of the Treasury announced today the of Czechoslovak assets located in the United States. This action was taken in accordance with the Settlement of Certain Outstanding Claims and Financial Issues, which was signed by the United States and the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic on January 29, 1982. Czechoslovak assets were previously blocked under the Foreign Funds Control Regulation, 31 C. F. R. Part 520. The initial blocking, which occurred in 1941, was intended to prevent nationals of Czechoslovakia from being forced under duress to transfer to the Axis powers their claims to assets in the United States. The Department unblocking The blocking also served as a weapon of economic warfare to hamper the financial and comtnercial activities of the World War II enemies of the United States. After the end of World War II, the United States continued to block Czechoslovak assets as a response to the nationalization by the Czechoslovak Government without compensation of property of certain United States nationals. R-683 of the Treasury Department FOR IMMEDIATE S.C. ~ ~ Washington, RELEASE March Telephone 566-204% 18, 1982 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL AUCTION Tenders for to mature as follows: and RANGE $ 5, 251 million of 52-week bills to be issued March 25, 1982, were accepted today. The details are 24, 1983, March OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE (Excepting BIDS: Price Discount Rate — 87. 391 High 12.470% — 87. 328 Low 12.533% 12. 509% Average — 87. 352 Tenders at the low 2 tenders totaling Investment Rate Coupon-issue (Equivalent $3, 195, 000) Yield) 1/ 13.98% 14.06% 14.03% price were allotted 38%. TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED (In Thousands) Location Boston New York Philadelphia Received $ 40, 715 7, 363, 490 31, 845 95, 920 99, 090 45, 270 Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury TOTALS 702, 635 56, 385 14, 415 28, 195 15, 515 795, 850 63, 050 $9, 352, 375 Accepted 21, 715 4, 277, 750 31,845 71, 920 $. 60, 470 44, 770 152, 635 35, 045 10, 415 27, 695 15, 515 437, 750 63, 050 $5, 250, 575 ~T8 Competitive Noncompetitive Subtotal, Public Federal Reserve Foreign Official $7, 422, 390 428, 185 $7, 850, 575 1,000, 000 $3, 320, 590 501, 800 501, 800 $9, 352, 375 $5, 250, 575 Institutions TOTALS An additional $3, 300 to foreign official institutions thousand for new 428, 185 $3, 748, 775 1,000, 000 of the bills will be issued cash. 1/ The average annual investment yield is 14. 52%. This requires an annual investment yield on All-Savers Certificates of 10. 16%. R-684 lepartmeni of the Treasury ~ Washington, O.C. ~ Telephone 566-2O41 I„,„H'(" For Release Uaon Deliver Expected at 10: 0 a. m. March 22, 1982 STATEMENT THE HONORABLE JOHN OF E. CHAPOTON ASSISTANT SECPETARY (TAX POLICY) BEFORE THE SUBCONNITTEE ON OVERSIGHT CF THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE COMMITTEE Nr. Chairman and Members ON FINANCE of this Committee: I am pleased to be here today to discuss the provisions of S. " 2198, the "Taxpayer Compliance Improvement Act of 1982. In general, we view this bill as an important step in reducing has the compliance just described. tax gap -- which Commissioner Egger Overview is a particularly appropriate time to consider steps that might be taken to collect taxes due under existing law which, for a variety of reasons, currently escape collection. I would like to compliment the Chairman and this Committee for holding hearings on the issues presented by the tax gap. I would also like to thank the Chairman and other sponsors of S. 2198 for introducing tnis measure, which we think takes important steps toward reducing the compliance tax gap as well as preserving the integrity of our voluntary tax ccmpliance system. This The provisions of S. 2198 may be divided into five categories: (1) broadening the scope of and improving the quality of information reporting; (2) reworking the penalty structure of the Internal Revenue Code to correct certain deficiencies, and to deter troublesome and growing abuses R-685 that may reflect increasing public acceptance of (3) adjusting the method of computing in« on payments and receipts by the IRS; (4) revising the antiquated rules dealing with voluntary withholding of retirement plan distributions; and (5) ancillary issuesI chiefly application of the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980 Treasury and IRS. I will discuss each of these provisions turn. noncompliance; Re ortin Requirements General existing law, many types of payments are subject Most payments of dividends and to information reporting. than $10 in a year are required to interest aggregating more 1099. Copies of Form 1099 are Form on be reported to the IRS also required to be sent to taxpayers so that they will have The the amount of income from each source readily available. these chief class of obligations that is not covered by reporting rules is obligations of the United States (although there is reporting by the Bureau of the Government Payments Public Debt to IRS on some types of obligations). such as royalties, rents and annuities are subject to information reporting if the payor is engaged in a trade or business, and the payments in a year exceed $600. are subject to information Wages paid to individuals reporting in addition to withholding of tax at source. The system has been in place for almost forty wage withholding the years; system has long been accepted, and it is generally agreed that the system functions well. Under S. 2198 would effect major changes to the tax rules The thrust of these information reporting. provisions is to increase the number of transactions subject to information reporting and, in conjunction with certain governing penalty provisions, to improve the quality and of reported information. that We recognize information reporting on taxable transactions is valuable both to the Government to enable it to check the information reported by taxpayers -- and to the vast majority of taxpayers who conscientiously attempt to report all of their income. Time and experience have shown, however, that infcrmation reporting is not a panacea: We need only contrast the rate of taxpayer compliance in the wage area, where withholding is generally required, with current levels of compliance in areas where only information reporting is proposed usability — required. It is estimated that wage and salary income, most of which is subject to withholding, is underreported by onlY 2 or 3 percent; on the other hand, the comparable figure for interest and dividend income, most of which is subject to information reporting only, is between 10 and 16 percent. Twenty dividend billion dollars or income more each year goes unreported. in interest and There is little question that compliance is substantially higher under a withholding system than under a system of information reporting only. We therefore believe the time has come for imposing withholding on interest and dividend income as long as the costs to withholding agents of this system are not excessive. For that reason, implementing has proposed withholding on interest and the Administration dividends. Thus, while improving and extending the information reporting network is desirable, particularly to the extent that U. S. Government and corporate bearer obligations would become subject to reporting, we believe that the tax gap has grown too large for us to continue to take limited incremental steps toward improved taxpayer compliance in the interest and dividend area. the The balance of the bill's provisions broadening on reporting for: (1) scope of information reporting call on governments local and State charged tips; (2) reporting by tax refunds; and (3) issuance of regulations requiring reporting by commodities and securities brokers. Let me discuss these proposals in turn. Char ed Ti s Employees who receive tips of $20 or more in a month are required under present law to report such tips to their The employer, in turn, is required to report to emp'oyer. the IRS (and to the employee) the amount of tips reported by the employee. The employer is similarly obligated to on tips reported by the employee. withhold tax constitute employees report This is simply income. their tip of less than 20 percent require would 2198 S. compliance. unsatisfactory taxpayer employers to treat tips that are charged on a credit card, and paid over by the employer to an employee, as wages Small emp'oyers, who are subject to information reporting. or fewer employees five had defined as those who normally be exempt from this would calendar year, during the preceding Tips are clear" y compensation taxable income. Current estimates and thus show that reporting generated requirement. Since a paper record is already the credit card transaction, there should be little additional paperwork burden as a result of this it is therefore desirable to impose informatio~ requirement; reporting in these circumstances. by State are required to include in income the amount State or local income tax refund, if the tax was deducted in a prior year, and the deduction gave rise to a tax benefit. Frequently, however, taxpayers fail to include these refunds in income. Doubtless this noncompliance sometimes results from taxpayer ignorance of the requirements of substantive law. In addition, we believe that taxpayers often completely overlook the fact that they received a refund in the prior year, or lack the particulars about the S. 2198 refund when they fill out their income tax returns. of Receipt problems. would go far to remedy both of these taxing local and States information reports from the jurisdictions would heighten taxpayers' awareness that the the requirement would refunds are taxable. Additionally, of . Tax Refunds Taxpayers any provide taxpayers with a timely paper record of the informatiorr which they require. Although this provision is clearly desirable from the we must tread point of view of Federal tax administration, carefully in imposing a requirement of even this limited nature on State and local governments, if for no other reason than out of concern for the costs to the States of complying with these new reporting requirements. Ne note, however, that there has been a proliferation of information exchange agreements between the Federal and State governments. It is anticipated that many States would satisfy their obligations under this provision of S. 2198 by simply providing the information called for by current agreements (although information would also be required to be provided to the inaividual taxpayer, a practice that is not now in effect). It thus appears that it would not be unduly burdensome to ask the States and local governments to take the further step of insuring that taxpayers have the needed records concerning State tax refunds to complete their Federal tax returns. Re orts b Securities and Commodities Brokers The tax law has long provided the Internal Revenue Service with authority to require reporting by brokers of the profits and losses and other information concerning their customers' effect. S. At present, there are no such requirements in the issuance of regulations 2198 would requiring information reporting by commodities and securities brokers on capital transactions, as well as the sale or transfer before maturity of any bond or other evidence of indebtedness (other than Treasury Bills or commercial papez' sold or transferred by corporations). In its present form, S. 2198 would reauire that this information be reported only to the IRS, not to the taxpayers involved. In our view, a 'substantial part of the value of reporting lies in the fact that it informs taxpayers of their taxable income -- in this case, gains and losses on securities and commodities transactions. The failure of taxpayers to receive this could well account for the very high rate of information noncompliance -- 56 percent -- for capital transactions If reporting of capital transactions is to be generally. mandated, we hope the Committee will give careful consideration to the desirability of furnishing information to taxpayers as well as the IRS. mandate In cases where a brokerage house does not possess all of the information necessary for the taxpayer to compute gain or loss on a given item, we would anticipate that regulations would simply require that the brokerage house report the information that it has. For example, in the case of a customer who brings a security to a brokerage house for sale, the brokerage house would report the sale proceeds' While this would not provide full information on the amount of gain or loss from this transaction, it would give the IRS sufficient information to determine that the full proceeds were correctly reported, and would fully inform the taxpayer of the sale transaction, requiring only that he ascertain his tax Lasis to report the transaction correctly. poor rate of compliance for capital generally leads us to the conclusion that information reporting by securities and commodities brokers is desirable. However, we would like an opportunity to consider certain questions that are raised by this provision. First, we would wish to consider the types of information that would be useful to IRS in improving compliance in this az'ea. Second, we would like to examine the costs both to the Lrokerage industry and to the IRS of producing information that would be useful to the Government and taxpayers. We of the look forward to working with you and representatives brokerage industzy to develop answers to these questions. The extremely transactions Re ortin S. 2198 would permit In Machine-Processable Form the Commissioner to require filed in a machine-processable form, media in the case of a person who is on magnetic including It is substantially required to file multiple returns. simpler and cheaper for the IRS to process documents filed in machine processable form. Many persons filing large numbers of returns now voluntarily report in magnetic form. Reporting on magnetic media is typically no more expensive At a (and often less expensive) than reporting on paper. that tax returns be time when businesses are increasingly relying on computers to perform basic information processing functions, it seems appropriate to confirm that the Commissioner may require reporting in this manner, recognizing that it will be necessary to employ a flexible approach to take into account situations where persons do not have computer capability. Penalt Provisions Penalties in a voluntary tax compliance system must have basic characteristics. First, the penalties must deter taxpayer behavior that would impair the voluntary tax compliance system; persons who purposely or recklessly fail to comply with the tax law must be subject to sanctions. Second, penalties must take into account, through abatement processes or otherwise, reasonable errors or omissions made in good faith. This second element is particularly important given the degree of complexity of our tax laws. two A'though most taxpayers wish to pay their fair share of taxes, there is an institutionalized minority that relies on flaws in the existing penalty structure to avoid taxes. This avoidance results, in part, from the opportunity under current rules to take highly questionable or aggressive positions on tax returns with knowledge that even if the position taken is struck down, no penalty will be imposed on the resulting tax deficiency so long as a "reasonable basis" for the position taken exists. Because only a small percentage of returns are audited each year, these aggressive positions may never be scrutinized or questioned by the Internal Revenue Service (although it is true that IRS audits a relatively high percentage of c rtain returns based on selection techniques indicating a high probability of a substantial audit adjustment). Thus, the combination of rhe audit lottery and the absence of effective penalties makes it prof' able for taxpayers to reduce their tax liability through aggressive positions on their masquerade as good faith constructions Revision of the penalty structure is tax returns which of the tax law. thus clearly in order. progress has been made in dealing with abusive behavior of this sort. An over-valuation penalty was added by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 to deter taxpayers from claiming exaggerated deductions or credits based on an overstated valuation of property. As structured, the penalty will apply if the claimed value of property exceeds 150 percent of its true value; appraisal reports or opinions of experts will not, in general, prevent application of the penalty. Some taxpayer Audit Lotter Penalt S. 2198 would impose an "audit lottery" penalty equal to of tax liability if the 10 percent of an understatement understatement is substantial. understatement A substantial is defined as 10 percent of tax liability, but at least $5, 000 for individuals, subchapter S corporations and personal holding companies, and $10,000 for other corporations. In computing the understatement, items giving rise to a deficiency would be treated as having been reported properly and full tax paid thereon if the taxpayer adequately disclosed on the return or an attachment to the return that the reporting of the item was questionable. Thus, taxpayers about the resolution of an issue may who are uncertain continue to take "reasonable basis" positions, just as under existing law. Taxpayers would, however, be required to disclose to IRS the fact that the questionable or aggressive position has been taken or else face the possibility that this penalty would be imposed. I applaud the sponsors of S. 2198 for squarely facing the difficult issue of overly aggressive returns filed by taxpayers attempting to take advantage of perceived It is weaknesses in our voluntary compliance system. important to reverse the perception among some taxpayers that aoopting aggressive tax return positions is necessary or appropriate to avoid "overpaying" taxes relative to other The audit lottery penalty would undoubtedly taxpayers. go far in reducing that perception. There are certain aspects of this penalty that we Whether believe are in need of careful consideration. set forth in a tax return been adeouate disclosure has difficult to resolve in certain cases. Also, we wonder may if be application of the penalty might be inequitable in cetain circumstances, such as in the case of ill-informed taxpayers. like to work with this Committee to fashion a We would penalty that would avoid or minimize these difficulties. Cor orate Officer/A ent Fraud Penalt penalty measure of S. 2198 that I wish to penalty for review in detail is the corporate office'r/agent Under this corporation. participation in the tax fraud of a as or employee, director, officer, provision, a corporate civil for a liable be would corporate agent, well as a of tax by a penalty equal to 50 percent of an underpayment "knowingly corporation if the corporate officer or agent participated" in the fraud. Knowing participation would include direct participation in the fraud by the individual, ordering a subordinate (whether or not the subordinate was to participate in the fraud, or employed by the corporation) to prevent participation in the knowing of and not attempting conduct would constitute However, subordinate. fraud by a "knowing participation" only if the individual knew or should would result in an have Known that the participation The second underpayment of tax. Under present law, corporate officers are subject to criminal penalties but not civil penalties for participating in the tax fraud of a corporation. Agents who are tax return preparers may be subject to civil liability of $500 for participating in such fraud. The unavailability of civil sanctions against corporate officers for participating in the fraud of a corporation leaves the IRS without an effective civil remedy agaiimt corporate officers who engage in conduct constituting tax fraud of a corporation. While a civil fraud penalty may be asserted against the corporation itself, the burden of such a penalty is borne by the shareholders; particularly in the context of a publicly held corporation, the corporate officer might not feel the "sting" of that penalty. Initially, the issue of the overlap of the return penalties and the corporate officer/agent penalty should be clarified. the amount of any corporate Presumably, preparer officer/agent fraud penalty should be reduced by the amount, of any return preparer penalty. Second, we wonder whether a penalty of $100, 000, particularly in the case of relatively low-level employees, issues, however, conceived. may Conduct high. Aside from these in our view, soundly to tax fraud committed by a be somewhat the penalty amounting is, doing business in noncorporate form would give rise to It is difficult to see why a fraud penalty. different result should obtain merely because the business is carried on in corporate form. Therefore, we view the concept of this penalty as a logical and necessary supplement to the Code provisions dealing with tax fraud. person a civil Penalties Tax a er The penalty for Failure to File Returns Identification bill provides for provisions relating or Provide Number a series of revisions to the to information reporting, and reguirement in the situation where no social security number or other taxpayer identification number is provided to a payor, or where an incorrect taxpayer identification number is provided to a payor, after the IRS has notified the payor that the number is incorrect. Briefly, these provisions are as follows: adds a withholding a person fails (1) to furnish a taxpayer identification number to a payor, (2) to include a taxpayer identification number in a return, or (3) to include the taxpayer identification number of another person in a statement or return filed (e. cC. , A' s failure to include B's social security number on a Form 1099 issued to B), the $5 penalty provided under present law would be increased to $50, with a maximum of $50, 000 (increased from $25, 000) for all such failures during a calendar year. Where the failure to include another person's taxpayer identification the penalty number in a return filed is intentional, would be $100 per failure, with no limit. Where Where a payor dividends, fails to file interest or other an information return on amounts, the penalty would be increased from $10 to $50 per failure, but not to exceed $50, 000 ( increased from $25, 000). If the failure to file such returns is due to intentional disregard of the filing reauirements, the penalty would be 10 percent of the amount of the payment (5 percent in the case of reports by brokers). If fails to provide a taxpayer identification at the rate of 15 a payor, withhclding IRS Alternatively, percent would be reauired. cetermines that the taxpayer identification number provided to the payor is incorrect, the payor would a payee number to if -10upon notice from the IRS that the withholding to supply the correct taxpayer failed taxpayer has identification number. Withholding would continue as long as the taxpayer fails to provide a number, or does not correct an incorrect number. start or deliberately with the will provoke, at income expectation that a failure to report the making to far 2198 goes S. sanctions. most, trivial generally meaningful by requirements various Code reporting increasing the penalties for refusals to comply. I would like to comment on two of these penalty provisions. Persons should not be able to disregard avoid information reporting responsibilities The minimum penalty of 10 percent of the amount subject the to reporting requirement (5 percent in the case of reports by brokers) where a payor intentionally disregards the filing requirements would in some cases result in a However, we think significant penalties substantial penalty. are appropriate where parties knowingly attempt to subvert the reporting requirements that are crucial to the functioning of our tax system. Next, let me mention the "penalty withholding" reports which are received provision. Ktany information or number altogether, identification either lack a taxpayer show an incorrect number. Fully 11 percent of the reports on These dividends and interest payments lack this information. defective reports are in many cases worthless to the Internal Revenue Service; those reports that are corrected are done at a system of source very substantial expense. By implementing withholding on persons who are not willing to provide correct taxpayer identification numbers, this provision will place the onus of correct information reporting on the person best able to insure that the reporting is accurate. We think this is an appropriate and desirable sanction. Minimum Penalt for Extended Failure to File Under present law, a person who fails to file a tax return on a timely basis is subject to penalties based on a percentage of the amount of tax due. Thus, where no tax is due, no civil penalty can be assessed. In many cases, IRS finds it necessary to seek out persons who have failed to file their tax returns, in order to obtain such persons' returns. Many of these persons ultimately are entitled to refunds. In those cases, IRS' efforts tc compel the filing are not recompensed, except for the value of the right to use -11the refund without interest expense (assuming IRS pays the refund within 45 days after the return is filed). S. 2198 addresses this problem by imposing a minimum late filing penalty of $100 when a return is filed more than 60 days after the return due date (including extensions). We reservations about this provision. are concerned about the effect of codifying a late filing by 60 days. Although we recognize have two Initially, we rule allowing that there could be substantial practical problems in applying this penalty without a grace period, we are not persuaded that Code-sanctioned late filing is a desirable rule of law. Second, we are concerned that application of the penalty could give rise to a perception of government insensitivity in certain cases where a penalty was applied to poorly-informed persons; however, a liberal construction by IRS of the "reasonable cause" exception to the penalty would go far toward allaying those concens. Relief From Criminal Estimated Tax Return Penalt Where far Failure to File licable A Exce tions present law, the obligation to file an estimated and the criminal sanction for failure to file such a return, are not correlated with the exceptions to the Thus, a of estimated tax liability. penalty for underpayment sanction for failure to file an estimated tax return may exist for a person who would incur no penalty for underpayment of estimated taxes because one of the statutory exceptions is applicable. S. 2198 would conform the rules imposing criminal liability for failure to file a return to of estimated the exceptions from liability for underpayment taxes. We support this provision. Under tax return, Interest Com utation Method S. 2198 provides a number of adjustments to the Internal Revenue Code interest computation provisions, which apply both to interest due to IRS as well as interest due to taxpayers. welcome. Com At computed In our view, these changes oundin present, are appropriate and of Interest interest on a simple rather under the Int mal than a compound Revenue basis. Code is -12Particularly in the case of an underpayment or overpayment. that is outstanding for several y'ears, the simple interest the amount computation has the effect of greatly understating of interest due. For example, 15 percent simple interest for 1 year is equivalent to 14.5 percent interest compounded semi-annually However, 15 percent simple not a significant difference. interest for 5 years is equivalent to only 11.5 percent For 10 years, a interest compounded semi-annually. rate of 9 4 percent is equivalent to 15 percent compounded for longer Thus, for debts outstanding simple interest. — does not rate even at a high periods, simple interest As a money. of the use for provide adequate compensation Code in the rate interest of compound the absence a result, discourages prompt settlement of disputes and prompt payment. S. 2198 would require interest to be compounded — — This would bring the tax interest computation into line with modern commercial practice, and would insure that both taxpayers and the Government are treated fairly when they are in a position to receive interest payments. We do wish to point This is a change that is long overdue. out, however, that taxpayers who compute their own interest on deficiencies could have some difficulty in doing so when a compound rate is employed. like the opportunity to We would further consider wheather it would be appropriate to use simple interest, rather than a compound interest. computation. for deficiencies that are outstanding for a relatively short period of time. semi-annually. Interest Bate Ad 'ustments Under present law, the interest, rate applicable to tax deficiencies and overpayments is adjusted each January 1 effective for the ensuing calendar year to a rate equal to 100 percent of the average prime rate in effect during September of the preceeding year, rounded to the nearest full percentage. This rule was adopted as part of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Prior to the 1981 Act, the rate was adjusted every two years, based on a rate equal to 90 percent of the prime interest rate. S. 2198 would provide for semi-annual adjustments on the average prime rate charged banks (rounded to the nearest full percentage) during six-month period ending three months prior to the date change. interest rate, based to the by the of the -13I think it is important concerns about high interest that we rates, not and let our basic large fluctuations in interest rates, affect our analysis of the proper interest rate to be charged on tax overpayments and deficiencies. Regardless of the formula employed to fix interest rates, during periods when there are significant interest rate fluctuations, the possibility of significant differences between the interest rate determined under the formula and a market interest rate will exist. Under many circumstances, however, the proposed interest formula will yield an interest rate that more provided formula closely approaches Restrictions under present on Pa ment a market law. rate than the of Interest In a study by the General Accounting Gffice, it was pointed out that taxpayers who file a late return are able to earn interest on a refund from the due date of the return if the IRS is not able to process the return within 45 days after receipt. The GAO perceived this to be a potential abuse, and we agree. S. 2198 would change this result by providing that interest would be paid only from the date on which a tax return is filed, if it is filed late. Although interest is compensation for the use of money over time, the principle that interest should not generally be paid on a refund is presently established in the tax law -- no interest is due unless IRS fails to pay the required refund within 45 The proposed days of the date that the return is filed. change would not diminish the Service's incentive to issue refunds promptly; it would merely deny a windfall benefit to . taxpayers who might deliberately delay f'ling their return, We think, hoping that the IRS will miss the 45 day deadline. therefore, that this is a desirable change. In the same vein, S. 2198 provides that interest will be only from the date that a return is received by IRS in "processable" form. For a variety of reasons IPS receives a number of returns each year which it unfortunately Although IRS prefers to cannot process through its system. it is not work with taxpayers to rectify filing deficiencies, equi-able for IRS to be burdened with the obligation of dealing with such a return within the 45-day period. Therefore, it is appropriate to limit the IRS' obligation to after 45 days following filing pay interest on overpayments of a return so that the return is not be considered filed until is received in a processable form. computed 't -14Finally, the bill would limit interest o~ refunds resulting from operating loss and capital loss carrybacks as Under present law, interest well as tax credit carrybacks. from such a carryback is computed on a refund resulting commencing with the first day of the taxable year following the year in which the loss or credit giving rise to the carryback occurs. We understand that some taxpayers might in the seek to take advantage of this rule, particularly context of the current high interest rates applicable to to delay filing a refund claim, thereby earning interest on the tax refund in excess of what they might earn S. 2198 would at a bank or other financial institution. from such a resulting provide that interest on an overpayment carryback would be computed from the date on which a claim for refund is filed, except that interest accruing prior to March 12, 1982 would not be affected. Although we think the tax system should not create artificial incentives to defer filing of a tax refund claim, some persons have asserted that the rule proposed by S. 2198 would unduly restrict the payment of interest to taxpayers who are unable to file their returns, and, therefore, their refund claims, prior to the due date of the return for the loss or credit year. Therefore, we would like-to work with this Committee to insure that there would not be inequitable application of this rule in some cases. Withholdin on Retirement Plan and Annuit Distributions S. 2198 would impose reporting requirements on employers who maintain qualified pension, profit-sharing, stock bonus and annuity plans and on administrators of such plans; would extend the withholding system to total distributions, and, on a voluntary basis, to periodic payments from qualified overpayments, retirement plans, technical changes, individual retirement accounts and commercial annuities; and would reverse the thrust of the current withholding system for distributions by such plans by requiring that a recipient be subject to withholding unless he elects not to have withholding apply. Subject to certain Current we support these provisions of S. 2198. Law The basic principle that underlies the taxation of distributions from qualified retirement plans or commercial annuities is a familiar one: Distributions that exceed the recipient's basis are generally includible in income in the year received. However, the rules for determining the -15basis are often complex, and significant exceptions to the general rule exist. As a result, taxpayers often do not understand the extent to which distributions constitute taxable income. The problem is compounded by the current withholding system and exacerbated by inadequate reporting requirements. Under current law, there is no mandatory or voluntary Thus, the on total or lump sum distributions. withholding recipient of such a distribution may find it necessary either to increase wage withholding or to make estimated tax of payments in order to avoid a penalty for underpayment estimated taxes. In the case cf periodic pension or annuity recipient's is possible, but only if it is withholding Thus the current withholding by the recipient. payments, requested is partial, voluntary, system by the recipient. and requires an affirmative act In addition, the present information reporting system is not effective in providing taxpayers and the Internal Revenue Service with the information required to determine tax liab'lity. Re ortin reporting requirements contained steps in closing the important constitute a person who makes current law, Under compliance gap. of $600 or more in a excess in pension or annuity payments taxable year must report such payments in accordance with from pension Lump sum distributions Treasury regulations. plans and commercial annuities are reported on Form 1099R while Form W-2P is used in the case of periodic payments. These forms are designed to provide taxpayers and the to Internal Revenue Service with the information neededHowever, in liability. tax individual's income calculate the the to access no has the payment making the party cases, many For example, in order to compute the required information. capital gains portion of the recipient's distribution, it is necessary to know when the recipient's plan participation is In most cases, that 'nformation began and when it ended. rather than the in the possession of the plan administratcr, While bank trustee or insurance company making the payments. provide generally employers and plan administrators is no recipients with the required information, there 2198, plan S. Under do so. that they statutory obligation the both provide to required be administrators would recipients of distributions and the Internal Revenue Service The pension in S. 2198 would and annuity with the information needed it is to determine income tax that such an liability. We and we administrators, . on plan imposed be obligation therefore support this portion of S. 2198. on Periodic Pa ments Withholdin S. 2198 would also institute a new system of voluntary under qualified on periodic benefit payments withholding would apply provisions These annuities. commercial or plans to typical pension or annuity payments that are made for a specific number of years or over the recipient's lifetime. which is the amount The taxable portion of these payments, would be subject to contributions, attributable to employer believe withholding as if it The withholding imperative were wages. system on periodic payments would be voluntary; the recipient could elect on an annual basis not to have withholding apply. Payors would be required to notify recipients of the opportunity to elect out of the withholding system. We support these measures to make it easier for pension recipients to use withholding and to avoid the obligation to make estimated tax payments and unanticipated tax burdens at the end of the year. However, we have some concern that the notice provisions of the bill may impose undue burdens on to work with this We would be happy plan administrators. Committee to insure that these provisions pose the minimum administrative burden consistent with informing pension recipients of their right not to have withholding apply. Withhcldin on Total Distributions S. 2198 would also impose withholding on the taxable portion of a "total distribution. " A total distribution is a distribution within one taxable year to the recipient of the balance to his credit under an eligible retirement plan or commercial annuity. As with periodic payments, only the taxable portion of the distribution would be subject to withholding. However, unlike withholding on periodic distributions, withholding on total distributions would be unless the recipient notified the payor that the distribution would be rolled over to an individual retirement account (IRA) or a qualified plan. Further, withholding would be calculated on the basis of the ten-year averaging rules of section 402(e) of the Code. This will generally result in lower withholding than if normal wage withholding tables and computational procedures were used. mandatory -17generally suppor t the withholding system that would to total distributions. Specifically, we agree that it is appropriate to institute withholding on these payments; we believe that an exception for rollovers must be made; and we believe that use of the ten-year forward averaging rates on total distributions is an appropriate way to minimize overwithholding. We apply Other Provisions Issuance of Re ulations S. 2198, the Internal Revenue Code would be to require tl at rules and regulations necessitated by future Code amendments be issued "as soon as possible " I am not certain of the purpose for this provision. I have no hesitancy in saying that Treasury and IRS today issue all regulations "as soon as possible. " Continual changes in the law, the need to carefully consider technical and policy issues presented in the interpretation of complex statutory provisions, and the need to carefully consider the views of affected taxpayers, all delay the issuance of regulations. While I share the general concern about the backlog of regulations projects, I am uncertain about the desirability of writing this measure into the public law. Under amended Effective Dates I have not in this statement attempted to systematically comment on the effective date of each of the many provisions of S. 2198. I do wish to note, however, that it appears to us that early effective dates for certain of the provisions -- particularly, for example, where new reporting requirements are involved -- could create hardships for as well as persons required to comply with the requirements, for the Internal Revenue Service, in preparing to comply with these measures. Just as an example, I note that December 31, 1981 on obligations of interest paid after corporations issued in bearer form would be subject to reporting for the first time. Obviously, it would be difficult to comply with this requirement in many cases. We would Le happy to work with effective dates for these provisions into account practical difficulties implementing some of the the Committee in devising take which adequately which could arise in bill's provisions. -18OMB Oversi ht last provision of S. 2198 that I would like to mention is section 202(b), which would eliminate oversight by the Office of Management and Budget over certain Treasury functions, particularly those discharged by IRS, under the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980. is still considering the application The Administration The of the Paperwork Reduction Act to Treasury and IRS, and respectfully requests an opportunity to advise the Committee of its views at a later time. Revenue Estimates The Office of Tax Analysis in the Treasury is currently in the process of estimating the revenue effects of the bill's provisions. These estimates are expected to be completed within the next, three weeks. We will furnish these estimates for the record as soon as they are available. department of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Washineion, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2048 RELEASE 22, 1982 March RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS for $4, 804 million of 13~eek bills Tenders bills, 26~eek both to be issued on Average at the at the Tenders Tenders low low for $4, 800 million of were accepted today. 26~eek bills maturin 96. 837 12. 513% 96.821 12. 576% 96. 827 12. 553% Low and 25, 1982, 13-week bills June 24, 1982 Discount Investment Price Rate Rate 1/ OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: RANGE High March maturin Price 13. 10% 13. 17% 13. 14% Se tember 23 1982 Investment Rate 1/ Discount Rate 13.64% 13.77% 13.73% 93.630 12.600% 93. 577 12. 705% 93.593 12.673% 2/ price for the 13~eek bills price for the 26-week bills were were allotted 12%. allotted 53%. TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACC EPTED (In Thousands) Location Boston New York Recetved 76, 335 $ ted 44, 835 $ 4, 154, 215 38, 600 64, 580 40, 350 53, 480 804, 490 34, 205 36, 535 42, 080 37, 005 50, 250 11,676, 245 Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis 19, 995 60, 695 27, 485 629, 630 170, 935 Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury TOTALS Received 62, 915 $ 925 604, 8, 25, 030 79, 050 51, 370 57, 905 627, 880 31, 360 29, 875 43, 310 22, 475 666, 365 233, 775 ~Aece 101,640 23, 125 10, 995 40, 715 22, 485 69, 630 170, 935 $13, 697, 025 $4, 804, 445 $11,446, 550 $2, 553, 970 964, 420 $3, 518, 390 1, 195, 855 : $10, 536, 235 ted 415 825 898, 3, 25, 030 ~Acce $56, 61,050 51, 370 53, 655 132, 880 27, 360 21, 875 41, 040 22, 475 174, 365 233, 775 $4, 800, 115 ~Te Competitive Noncompetitive Subtotal, Public Federal Reserve Foreign Official Institutions TOTALS 964, 420 $12, 410, 970 1, 195, 855 90, 200 $13, 697, 025 , R-686 $4, 804, 445 886, 640 8, 988, 735 1, 000, 000 886, 640 $3, 252, 615 1, 000, 000 547, 500 $10, 536, 235 547, 500 $4, 800, 115 $ 90, 200 : 8, 102, 095 $2, 365, 975 yield. for calculating the maximum interest rate payable market certificates is 12. 621%. coupon-issue 1/ Equivalent 2/ The four-week average on money $ of th 'treasury yeyartment D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204 Washington, ~ C FOR Z2'IEDZMZ I'Unsay, RELE'ASE Narc' 22, 1982 CONTACZ: Rabert Don Le~e (202) 566-2041 SECIWZARY' REGAN ON THRZFTS TO TIIE DIDC THI S (.OMMITTEE TODAY, THAT PAYING BE DI SCUSS I INSTITUTIONS WILL HELP DEPOSITORY ORGANIZATIONS WILL AGAIN I THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED INCREASE MODEST A IN NET WITH AM PLEASED TO THRIFT INSTITUTIONS SINCE THE LAST COMMITTEE MEETINGS NOTE PROPOSALS FOR FUNDS COMPETE INTEREST RATES. MARKET NG DEPOSITS NEW THE DIRAC CONTRIBUTION MAJOR RATE CEILINGS WERE ELIMINATED' BY THE IN 1981 ITS EFFORTS TO INSURE HAVE FUNDS ADEQUATE AWHILE IN THIS INCREASE TO THE MANY CURRENT STRONGER INST I ~ WITH THRIFT ECONOMIC I TUTIONS RAISED TO NEAR MARKET LEVELS& OR THE COMMITTEE THRIFT AND OTHER WHICH TO CONDUCT HAVING ENVIRONMENT AND SOME AGENCIES ~ THE ARE NO EXISTING ADEQUATE TO INSTITUTIONS THEIR BUSINESS ARE i THERE SHOULD BE WILL CONTINUE DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS VIABILITY OF THIS INDUSTRY DEPOSIT INSURANCE BEEN FROM DEPOSITS WHOSE THAT KNOW THAT HAS FINANCIAL MAY HAVE TO PUBLIC CONCERN RESOURCES DEAL WITH ~ DIFFICULTIES MERGE WITH ABOUT THE OF THE ANY FEDERAL PROBLEM INSTITUTIONS ARISES THE ~ AND THESE RESOURCES WILL BE EXPANDED FEDERAL 60VERNMENT THAT THE SAY I NGS AND IN A LOAN TO INSURANCE INSURANCE SAFEGUARD THRIFT IS, AND WILL TAKE ALL NECESSARY FEDERAL OEPOSIT COMMITMENTS FUNDS S POLICY THI S ADMINISTRATION ( THE INSTITUTION CORPORATION ORPORATI ON WILL IF BE, STEPS AND THE TO NEED THAT ASSURE THE FEDERAL WILL BE ABLE TO MEET THEIR INTEGRITY OF EACH OR COMMERCIAL INSURED BANK ~ DEPOSITOR S partmeni of the Treasury ~ Washington, For Release U March 23, 1982 n D.C. ~ Tele@hone 566-204' Delive Remarks by Donald T. Regan Secretary of the Treasury Before the Union League Philadelphia, March 'Res nsibilit Pennsylvania 23, 1982 and Ca italism' I need hardly tell you what a pleasure it is for me to be here this afternoon. The Washington press corps is fond of the Reagan Administration's ambassador to Wall Street. fondness for Walnut Street. I am my personal delighted to be back in Philadelphia to see old friends and renew old ties in this city that was my home for ten years. calling me They overlook I also have cherished the greatest of Americans, memories of this by an organization hall, dedicated to dedicated to his memory and his ideals. I think of Lincoln often, peering through the smoke and division of civil war, seeing history beyond the horizon cannot escape history, " he said in the darkest days of battle. "We of this Congress and this Administration will be remembered in spite of ourselves. or No personal significance, insignificance, can spare one or another of us. The fiery trial through which we pass will light us down in honor, or dishonor, to the latest generation. We, even we here, hold the power, and bear the responsibility. " 'We Responsibility can be a heavy load, a double-edged sword, or the key that unlocks the door to tomorrow. None of us can escape A11 of us, as Lincoln said, will be remembered in spite of ourselves. So this afternoon I'd like to spend a few minutes on I'd like to share some straight the subject of responsibility. talk with some old friends. Earlier today, I spoke at Bucknell University on The Morality of Capitalism. ' To me, the relationship is self-evident. For no other system in no other more social land has produced more abundance, more opportunity, mobility or more freedom. No other way of life provides a more equal distribution of profit or demands a broader assumption of it. responsibility. echoes my belief. We recognize that without risk, no prosperity without toil. We have set out to encourage the risktakers, and provide for those who would tap their own ingenuity in new incentives The Reagan Administration there can be no security R-688 creating jobs and restoring America's cutting edge in the world We hold to the maxim first expressed by Theodore marketplace. Roosevelt, eighty years ago. . . "The first requisite of a good citizen in this Republic of " "is that he shall be able and willing to pull his ours, he " said, weight. policies are designed to give every American In the last fifteen months, the ability to pull his own. weight. Think back to we' ve made striking progress toward that goal. I know it's painful, but try it anyway. January, 1981 Americans on the eve of the Reagan presidency were suffering a double whammy of 12 percent inflation and the highest interest rates since the time of Lincoln. Government, already bloated, itself, feasting on a stagnant economy and was merrily indulging waistline. adding 14 percent a year to an ever-expanding Business languished in a regulatory straightjacket, -starved for new capital, deprived of old markets. Our economic — scent of hypocrisy lingered in the air, mixed with the stale aroma of the government printing press. For years, Washington had waged an ineffective war on poverty — without once trying to make peace with prosperity. A It our currency, tarnished our ideals, and millions of our people to unemployment lines "and welfare- lines instead of assembly lines. had cheapened condemned It claimed a near-monopoly on little or nothing to alleviate compassion for the poor — yet did the suffering they felt every time they walked into a grocery store or drove up to a gas pump. So intent had government become in protecting us from ourselves, it didn't seem to mind that we had fewer dollars in our pockets, or less faith in our futures. In a word, government had behaved irresponsibly. The extent of its failure could be measured in the numbers of economic activity — hardly a passing grade. President Reagan was determined to do better. In partnership with the Congress and the American people, he has charted a new course; not a midcourse correction, but a virtual U-turn. Again, let me resort to some numbers. For the first time in four years, inflation has fallen below double-digit levels. Less than 9 percent for all of 1981, consumer prices will fall further this year, to around 7 percent or less. And if you don't believe me, take a look at February's producer price index, which registered the first actual drop over six years. still too high, have declined by more since the President took office. The tide of regulation has itself been regulated; there were Interest rates, while than five points government 23, 000 fewer pages in the Federal Register last year than in 1980. is up. The number of people The rate of personal savings at all levels is down. So, unfortunately, employed by government You don't need me to tell you are the ranks of other jobholders. we' ve been in a recession. I say "been" because of mounting that the worst is behind us. Last month's sharp retail sales — led by a 3 percent gain in durable goods — is just the latest and most encouraging sign that the economy is coming out of its slump. evidence increase in course, we still have our critics, those mail-order prophets of doom who toss around words like "depression" and who probably would get a thrill out of shouting fire in a crowded theatre if they weren't so worried about getting trampled in the Of ensuing stampede. that's all right. We' ll let them do their worst; we' ll It was Nark Twain who counseled a be content to do our best. friend, "Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest. " For fifteen months, this Administration has — and much of A lot of people are grateful been doing right. official Washington is still rubbing its eyes in disbelief. a President who does in office what he said he would do Imagine: on the stump; whose campaign promises turn into tax cuts, not tax increases; who is daring enough to utter words like "profit" and "incentive" right out loud. I think you' ll agree with me: this is heady stuff. I think you' ll agree as well, that this President is living to his responsibility to lead us away from the failed dogmas up —without of fifty years' standing. He is leading a revolution the support of some of those cautious businessmen who were at our side last summer, but who have since deserted the streets for the relative safety of their boardrooms. Of course, they run the risk of abandoning the field of battle to the counterrevolutionaries, those who have lain in wait for this chance to avenge their earlier defeat and restore business as usual -- that But is to say, anti-business as usual. For as long as I can remember, you and I have argued that We were alone could not guarantee economic advance. right then -- and we are still right. Government could not tax and spend and regulate cannot and government us to prosperity, the Not without retrench its way to prosperity. Not alone. active participation of a private sector whose own authority to make decisions has expanded along with its tax base. government It will lead us of the recession. re seeing evidence of that already. let ultimately, any lasting recovery will depend on the decisions 'of investors and producers. is never a spur to Now uncertainty And it's not surprising investing. that much of the business oUt has been said more than once that consumers We' world has responded with caution to the economic program enacted Commerce Department, capital last summer. According to the fall about to 1 percent. expected by are 1982 for plans spending survey by McGraw-Hill points to a larger dropoff; A more narrow according to the while the nation's largest manufacturers, gain in capital 10 percent a to post Conference Board, expect spending this year. the numbers were compiled during the worst of the recession, that may not seem too bad. Compared with the 10 percent drop in capital spending that occurred in the 1975 Considering recession, they So why am may seem downright cheerful. I not smiling? is an inexact science, influenced Such numbers have on current psychology. influential by and They can set a tone for recovery, or political ramifications. paint a bleak picture of the status quo. And in today' s Washington, especially on Capitol Hill, there is a growing uneasiness about all this. There's a feeling that last year' s most fervent believers in tax cuts have become this year' s agnostics on the subject of business investment. Even more than in the stock exchanges and brokerage houses, in the world of politics, appearances and realities are easily This year alone, Yet some realities are undeniable. confused. American business will recover around $13 billion as a result of the Economic Recovery Program passed by the Congress and signed By 1986, that figure will rise to by the President last summer. infusion of cold cash comes a billion. With the around $75 to use it The wisely. responsibility program President Reagan achieved last year is yours as well as ours. The cuts in taxes and spending, the accelerated cost recovery, the pursuit of deregulation and a slow, steady growth in the money supply: these are reflections of common priorities and long-frustrated preferences. You raised your voices, you rolled up your sleeves. You helped us to overcome the entrenched opposition of those who Because economic planning wouldn't Washington recognize a budget surplus Monument. if it jumped over the Deficits are much in the news these days. Some of the capital's biggest spenders have taken to denouncing them as too large. I trust you' ll forgive me for not joining in the crocodile tears. Just last week, an informal poll of congressional committee forecast a 1983 budget nearly $30 billion higher than chairmen what the President has asked for. I think you have a to oppose such a cynical effort at budget-busting. think have I a responsibility to ask the next congressman you seen mopping his brow over deficits how he voted on synfuels a„d student loans and price supports. And I think you have a responsibility to demand straight talk from your elected responsibility -- the subject of their own spending habits that equates a smaller deficit with lower interest rates. Of course, if they really cared about reducing the size of the deficit, they might face up to the need for rather than the individual further belt-tightening by Washington, consumer whose tax cut, after all, does little more than keep pace with the built-in appetite of inflation for more and more revenue. representatives and on on the subterfuge first responsibility of any capitalist is to himselfa good product, and earn a fair profit. We have given Now we ask that you put them to work. you the tools to do both. We did not confuse October 1, 1981 with the Millenium. We did not expect overnight recovery or instant Utopia. At a time when inventories were high and plant utilization relatively low, it to anticipate an immediate surge of would have been unrealistic to The make visible investment. Yet there were lawyers and accountants poised to take Someone was planning immediate advantage of safe harbor leasing. And now is a time for making some additional something. plans that take into account the following factors: Inventories are falling, and falling fast. By $3. 4 billion in December, by an additional $2. 1 billion in January. In tandem with the increase in consumer spending, there is solid ground for optimism. — —Inflation, too, is coming down. This isn't due to any stroke of luck, nor any fortuitous mingling of random elements. On the contrary, the progress we' ve made in fighting inflation is due to fundamentals. Energy prices are down, and the oil glut We' re on the right track with wage shows no sign of vanishing. negotiations, with a host of upcoming contracts pointing in the same general direction as the historic agreement between Ford and the U. A. W. And might I add here a note of praise to union leaders and rank and file members, who have seen and grasped their own responsibility to make our products more competitive and our plants and factories more efficient. They deserve prosperity; they already have the Reagan Administration's gratitude. far as the deficits are concerned, the President has his willingness to look closely at any comprehensive to his own. But Package the Congress fashions as an alternative our primary responsibility to the American people remains unchanged. We want to balance the budget -- but we must restore economic health first. And we cannot do the latter by imposing ~ew taxes or retreating from the basic provisions of the As 8ignalled President's This know. the program. is for one, ought to back a few years, to of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. In 1976, the something They should presidencies the Business Roundtable, also be able to remember sustained a $66 billion deficit, the largest Ford Administration fifteen times the size of the '74 deficit. and in U. S. history, two that same year period, interest rates declined Yet during The deficit run up in from 12 percent to less than 7 percent. Far from Even with 1976 did not stall economic recovery. modest growth in the money supply, the economy grew at a vigorous clip for three Administration inflation and more years boasted a —until it. 1979, deficit cut to interest rates both doubled the Carter billion —and over their '76 levels. when $27 What's more, those who conclude an automatic cause and between federal deficits and interest rates have conveniently left out of the equation the most potent single the rate of personal savings. weapon in our economic arsenal This year alone, we expect that private savings, which were running at $480 billion in 1981, will increase by $60 billion. By next year, the increase will reach $170 billion. By 1984, it will hit $260 billion, totaling $740 billion in 1984. And those numbers are far larger than anything glimpsed by even the effect relation -- gloomiest deficit-monger. So let me suggest, as a member in good standing Hardheaded Businessman's Club, that your own primary of the to retool, to succeed mirrors the nation's need agressively pursue new ideas and new markets. Verbal assurances of longrange investment are not enough. As John Maynard Keynes used to say, "In the longrun, we' re all dead. " And he ought to know. Your second responsibility is to the program itself. No team can expect to win for long if half the players refuse to leave the sidelines. Yet that is exactly what has happened with some advocates of the President's program. Having sought, and achieved an atmosphere of stability and predictability within which to make longrange decisions, they now troop to Washington to beseech Congress to raise taxes. It won't wash. responsibility modernize and Less defensible still are proposals to delay or cancel individual tax cuts while leaving business untouched. To be sure, this year's deficit might be reduced by a few billion dollars. But who can calculate the jobs uncreated, the businesses failed, the opportunities for expansion unrealized'P It is narrow thinking at best to believe you can stimulate the economy by raising labor costs or by shrinking savings power. It threatens both the labor supply and consumer the pool of new capital on which we rely for lasting prosperity. the stability business itself seeks. severe political backlash. It is the sensibilities. It runs the It undermines a risk of appearance of selfishness that aggravates public In fact, what the public demands is not far removed from what the Administration expects. We don't expect free enterPrise to take over the social welfare system, but expect it to participate in the President's Private Sector we do We expect it to give generously of its program. We expect it to imagination and its sweat equity. join vigorouslv in our campaign to restore the inner cities and reclaim millions of young people for the system in which we place our faith. We expect an aroused business community to sustain our belief that it can be an engine of social progress and not one more sacred cow feeding at the Washington trough. Initiatives its knowhow, responsibilities in the days ahead: to accept the risks and calculate the odds on America's economic rebirth; to consolidate the gains and know the political realities that have prevailed since passage of the President's program; to unleash your ingenuity on a troubled society as well These are your as a revised tax code. I hope these words don't sound too poetic. Because I know each of you go back to the grindstone when you take another look at the corporate ledger sheet you will be hit by And I know that the sobering reality of our economic situation. the profit and loss statement speaks to your daily concern for But I also know that the Reagan corporate performance. Administration and the business community have a unique to reorient the government of this country and to opportunity: reinstitute the marketplace as the driving force in our economy. that when -- So I He said, — ash that as you consider short term versus long term objectives; as you consider the responsibilities of capitalism in our society; remember the words of Winston Churchill during the War. "Do not rather of sterner ... days and we must to play a part I let us speak of darker days; let us speak These are not dark days; they are great all thank God that we have been allowed days. Let there be no mistaking the fact that in these days, this debate, each of us can play a part. Together, we will put America back to work. We will give America back to those who make her work. That is our responsibility. during Thank you. Ipartment of the TrecssurV ~ WclshlnSton, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY Expected at 10:00 23, 1982 a. m. March STATEMENT OF MARK E. STALNECKER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY (FEDERAL FINANCE) BFFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON DOMESTIC MONETARY POLICY THE HOUSE COMMITTTEE ON BANKING' FINANCE AND URBAN AFFAIRS of the Subcommittee: It is a pleasure to be here this morning to discuss the objectives of public debt management and the financing techniques employed by the Treasury. I also want to discuss our concerns regarding certain limitations imposed by the Second Liberty Bond Act, the governing statute for Treasury Mr. Chairman and Members debt management. public debt includes both marketable and nonmarketable The tables attached to my issued by the Treasury. statement present data on public debt securities and ownership over the last decade. The Treasury issues these securities to finance both budget deficits and off-budget deficits, including the borrowing needs of the. Federal Financing Bank, and to refund maturing debt. My prepared statement will deal primarily with Treasury marketable securities, but I will also comment on the savings bond program and I will be happy to answer any questions you may have regarding other nonmarketable The securities Treasury Marketin issues. Techni ues Treasury marketable securities include (1) Treasury bills, of less than which are sold at a discount and have maturities interest 1 year; (2) Treasury notes, which have semiannual coupons and maturities from 2 to 10 years; and (3) Treasury in excess bonds, which have semiannual coupons and maturities of 10 years. The Treasury and R-. coupon 689 currently sells all of its marketable in competitive auctions. securities bills and sales of regular 13-, 26- and 52-week Announcements bills are on a well-known schedule that varies only on holidays or when interrupted by Congressional inaction on debt limit legislation. With regard to coupon securities (notes and bonds), participants are generally cognizant of the schedule of Treasury issues, because of the regularity of the new issue a sale of When the Treasury announces and maturity cycles. announcement of the amount its makes it marketable securities, financial available to the press sale and other terms of the news organiso that no and news wire services simultaneously, of advance zation or market participant has the advantage information. The Treasury announces its offerings far enough to be disseminated ahead of the sale dates to permit information to all interested parties. for its marketThe Treasury does not purchase advertising able securities, nor does it pay commissions to dealers who make markets in Treasury securities. Dealers and investors submit subscriptions to Treasury offerings directly to the Treasury or to Federal Reserve Banks and Branches which act as the Treasury's fiscal agency. Dealers in U. S. Government securities often are awarded the major share of issues in competitive auctions, and dealers subsequently distribute the securities to their customers. Dealer profits or losses on the transactions are determined by the difference between the price the dealer pays to the Treasury and the price the dealer receives from the customer. The dealer's capital is at risk in each transaction, since the dealership is trading for its own account. market bill The Treasury accepts noncompetitive tenders in and coupon auctions up to pre-announced limits Treasury for each investor at the average price of accepted competitive tenders. on noncompetitive tenders are made prior to awards on competitive bids. The purpose for accepting tenders on a noncompetitive basis is to achieve a wider distribution of the securities by attracting tenders from small banks and other investors who are generally thought to have limited access to up-to-date information on market conditions. Allotments Re ularization of Issues Treasury debt management operations are directed to meeting the U. S. Government's daily cash needs in order to assure that sufficient funds are available to pay obligations when and as due, while providing a prudent cash balance. Our operations in the market are conducted so as to minimize disruption and thereby reduce the cost of our debt operations. Disruptive financing operations increase market uncertainty and hence the risk of purchasing securities, raising the rates paid on Treasury obligations. Treasury feels that the most important element in reducing market uncertainty about debt f inancing is the maintenanc~ of a regular, predictable cycle of security issuance' Regularity of debt management removes a major source of market uncertai ain tyy, assures that Treasury debt. can be sold at the lowest possible interest rate consistent with market conditions at the time of and the sale. Predictability of debt management is important for another reason, as well. Because Treasury securities are the benchmark for the Nation's fixed income market, Treasury mismanagement of the debt can destabilize the entire financial system. Treasury has raised large amounts in the market over the past few years. In FY 1979, net market borrowing amounted to $27. 4 billion. This total rose to $83.6 billion in FY 1980, and to $90. 5 billion last year. Although market interest rates were historically high during this period, Treasury financing operations, per se, did not disrupt the market. Leaving aside the issue of whether a given level of deficit financing raises interest rates, the conduct of debt management during this period prevented major market dislocations. massive had been met in a borrowing requirements If these haphazard manner, significant damage to the financial markets Unpredictable shifts of Treasury financing would have occurred. out of one sector of the market to'another based on interest rate forecasts or other "opportunistic" rationales could have seriously damaged market confidence and driven rates significantly higher. This potential for damage to the market is yet another reason to pursue prudent, predictable debt operations. The current regular issue "cycles" for Treasury financing notes, and bonds began in the early 1970's sales of bills, still evolving. Treasury sells securities in all maturity ranges to meet the needs of the broadest possible array of investors. Establishment of this regular pattern has contributed to a positive market climate in several ways: 1) By creating a schedule of Treasury security auctions, different investors, as well as dealers, can plan portfolio strategies in advance. 2) By establishing the potential Treasury new issue calendar in advance, other issuers, including Federallysponsored agencies and private borrowers, can plan their financing operations with more certainty. 3) By spreading Treasury maturities more evenly over time, through and are market disruptions are lessened and future refunding and borrowing operations can be facilitated. Not all Treasury borrowing can be done on this regular schedule, because there are seasonal flows in U. S. Government budget receipts Receipts, for instance, tend to be concentrated in and outlays. Seasonal borrowing to adjust for this misthe April-June quarter. has been accomplished by selling cash management flows cash match in period to mature in the cash surplus period. deficit the bills in used to cash shortfalls resulting from also bridge are These bills in Nevertheless, receipts or bulge in outlays. drop an unanticipated of operations. debt keystone Treasury regularity is a Lon -Term Bonds I would especially like to address the role of long bond in the overall scheme of Treasury debt management and regularization. Long bond issuance is an integral part of Two bond sales Treasury's regularization of debt operations. are normally conducted each quarter, with a 20-year bond auction in the last month of the quarter and a 30-year bond sale as part of the mid-quarter refunding operation. The Treasury bond market is deep and liquid, with cash market trading aided by issuance a well-developed futures market. I would like to note at this point that the Treasury believes that the financial futures markets have on balance facilitated the management of the public debt, by shifting able to bear it, by price discovery and dissemination, increasing the liquidity of the cash market for Treasury A liquid underlying cash market. securities is in Treasury's interest because it increases the attractiveness of its offerings, thus reducing the cost of servicing the public debt. risk to those willing and and by In addition to meeting the investment needs of long-term portfolio managers, sale of long-term obligations extends the average life of Treasury debt, which reduces the disruptive effects of frequent Treasury operations to refund maturing issues. Almost one half of outstanding marketable debt matures within one year (See Chart 1). This refunding need must be added to Treasury's new cash borrowing requirement to determine gross Treasury issuance in the market. Because of the short average maturity of outstanding Treasury debt (See Chart 2), long bond issuance must remain an integral part of Treasury's debt management policy. Some observers have suggested that Treasury should avoid the sale of long-term securities when interest rates are "high, " in order to avoid locking in high interest costs. However, any definition of "high" interest rates is extremely subjective and carries with it an implicit forecast of future interest rates. If Treasury "temporarily" "withdrew from the bond market because it felt rates were "high, market reaction to reentry in the long market could well be that rates were "low. " Thus, reentry could be interpreted as a government forecast of higher rates in the future. Management of the debt based on interest rate forecasts would create tremendous uncertainty as to Treasury's financing schedule and, over the long run, would result in higher costs to the Government by reducing the market's willingness to bid in auctions. Therefore, a consistent policy Qf debt issuance across the maturity spectrum must be maintained without regard to expected interest rate developments. I would also note that, because of the large volume of maturi~9 obligations refinanced each year, interest expense on the public debt is extremely sensitive to interest rate movements. This volatility to the interest expense component of Federal outlays. As interest rates move up and down, Treasury's interest expense also rises or falls. As long as the debt outstanding adds retains this short-term character, part of our debt operations. debt extension must be a At this point I would like to mention that market uncertainty recently arisen because of Congressional inaction on Treasury's request to repeal the 4 1/4% ceiling on long bonds. The face amount of Treasury bonds held by the public with interest rates in excess of 4 1/4% may not exceed $70 billion. Treasury has exhausted this authority (See Chart 3). Unless Congress repeals the 4 1/4% ceiling, or grants additional issuing authority, no more bonds may be sold. In fact, Treasury would normally announce its regular auction of 20-year bonds today. It cannot do so because of Congressional inaction. Unless authority is granted next few weeks the usual sale the of 30-year bonds as part of in is also in our Nay refunding Inability to sell these jeopardy. securities has created dislocations in the market and raised questions about the Treasury's ability to carry out predictable, I urge Congress to expedite prudent debt management policies. the long bond authority legislation so that this uncertainty can be resolved. has States Savin s Bonds I would like to turn now to our current proposal for the The Treasury has sent a request for savings bond program. expedited action on new savings bond legislation to the Chairman Savings bond legislation of the House Ways and Means Committee. is urgently needed to give savings bond investors a fair rate of return and to stem the cash outflow from savings bonds that the Treasury has sustained since late 1978 (Chart 4). Under existing law the Treasury is not permitted to offer an interest rate on savings bonds that will keep up with the interest rates available from other investments. The legislation Treasury submitted to Congress in January will remove the statutory interest rate ceiling on savings bonds and thus will enable Treasury to guarantee the small, long-term savings bond investor that the interest rate will always be reasonably in line with This is current market rates available to larger investors. the only way that we can revitalize the savings bond program. savings bond program is not only good for A healthy small savers, it is good for the Treasury too. Even at the rates we propose to pay to savings bond higher market-related holders the costs to the Treasury will be somewhat less than cost of financing this debt in the open market. the alternative of the new variable Thus, the longer we delay the introduction rate savings bond, the greater the cost of financing the debt. United SUNNARY of Treasury debt management policy is that it is most effective when it is least obtrusive. Debt extension, regularization of new issues and maturities, the use of auctions to sell new Treasury securities at prevailing market yields, the communication of Treasury financing needs to the public, and the maintenance of a viable savings bond program all help to minimize the potential disruptive effects of the Treasury's large refunding and new financing tasks, and to minimize the cost of financing the public debt. A capsule summary Nr. Chairman, that concludes debt management matters of primary but I prepared statement on concern to the Treasury, will be happy to answer any questions at this time. OoO my Table Changes in Interest-Bearing public Debt Securities Held by private (Calendar years, in billions of dollars) 1971 Total Debt Held by Public* Marketable Bills Coupons Maturing in: under 1 year 1-5 years 5-10 years 10-20 years 20 years and over Nonmarketable Savings bonds Foreign series State and & notes local I 972 973 1974 1975 $246. 0 $260.5 $259.7 $269.9 $348.4 976 977 Investors 978 979 198 980 $408.4 $459.2 $502.8 $539.4 $615.1 $693.1 173.4 180.2 170.7 181.0 255. 8 307.8 344. 3 365.2 402. 2 492. 3 580.7 65.9 73.4 70.4 82.2 119.3 122.3 119.0 119.3 127.3 172.1 195.3 107.5 106.8 100.5 98.8 136.7 185.6 225. 3 245. 9 274. 9 320. 2 385.4 15.9 60.7 16.9 17.6 57.6 17.5 50.9 22. 9 18.1 54.2 13.5 35.2 103.8 53.0 119.5 4. 3 5.9 7.4 8.2 8.3 11.7 63.1 133.2 36.6 4.3 8.7 54.9 128.3 33.6 4.4 9.1 30.8 74.7 16.7 15.3 19.8 22. 3 67.5 159.6 41.2 27.3 24. 6 80.0 188.4 50.9 34.1 32.0 6.6 7.3 9.6 13.2 8.5 31.0 32.8 13.8 72.7 80.2 88.9 88.8 92.5 100.6 114.9 137.5 137.1 122.8 112.4 54.9 58.1 20.6 60.9 26.0 63.8 22.8 67.9 21.6 72. 3 22.3 77.0 22.0 79.9 28.8 24. 6 72. 5 24.0 23.8 68.1 13.9 80. 9 29.6 24. 3 101.2 109.6 117.5 121.3 130.9 16.8 1.1 Other 0.4 1.6 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 78. 5 80.5 4.5 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.8 2.5 19.0 23. 0 2.3 Memo: Holdings Banks Federal Reserve 62. 1 70. 2 69.9 97.0 Offzce of the Secretary of the Treasury *Excludes U. S. Government March accounts and Federal Reserve Banks' holdings of public debt securities. 17, 1982 II Table Changes in Interest-Bearing (Calendar 1972 Total Debt Held by Public* Marketable 1~ 8 -3.1 1-5 years 5-10 years 10-20 years Nonmarketable Savings bonds Foreign series & notes local Other Federal Reserve 5' 3 7 2'9 -6. -4 ' 3 -0.5 7'6 8.7 3~3 3~9 2'7 5~4 4 2 0.6 20 years and over and 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 -2 ' 9 0.4 -0 ~ 3 0. 0. 8. 6 -4. 8 3.3 0. 3 -0.4 3.0 0. 2 -3 ' 2 2. 0 12.7 20. 5 3'2 4. 4 29. 5 14.3 17.8 15.7 1.8 0.9 1.8 8.8 0. 8 5.5 -0.2 1.6 3.7 -1.1 1 4. 4 0~7 3'2 0~2 -0.3 -0. 1 9.4 0.2 3.9 7.4 10.4 0.9 7. 4 9.0 4. 2 8. 4 4' -1.2 0. 6 2' 3 8.0 ~ ~ ~ 3.5 14.3 4. 7 3'6 22 ' 6 8'2 4.9 3'0 6.0 7. 0 4. 4 4. 6 7 5 2. 3 26. 4 ~ accounts and Federal Reserve Banks' holdings 12.5 28 ~ 8 9.7 6 ~8 7~4 -0.4 -14.3 -10.4 -1.1 -7. 4 -4 4 -0.7 -4.8 -5 0 0. 3 -0.8 -0 8 1.1 -1.3 -0 ' 2 ~ ~ 7'8 3'8 March Office of the Secretary of the Treasury *Excludes U. S. Government ~ ~ ~ ~ Maturing in: under 1 year Holdings Banks 1975 $14.5 $-0. 8 $10.2 $78. 5 $60.0 $50. 8 $43.6 $36.6 $75.7 $78. 0 6.9 -9 5 10 3 74 9 52. 0 36 5 20. 9 37.0 90. 1 88. 4 8.0 44 8 23 ' 2 0.3 3 2 3.0 11.9 37. 1 3 2 7 6 65 ' 2 45 3 29 0 -0 ' 7 -6 ' 3 -1.7 37 8 49 0 39.7 20. 6 ~ Coupons Memo: 1974 Investors ~ Bills State 1973 public Debt Securities Held by private years, in billions of dollars) 9.6 17, 1982 of public debt securities. Table Ownership End of Calendar ar Total Privately Held i970 971 972 973 974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 $229. 1 247. 1 261.7 260.9 271.0 349.4 409.5 461.3 508.6 540. 5 616.4 694.5 of Public Debt III Securities by Private Investors~ Billions of Dollars Mutual State Ccmmercial Banks Indzvlduals Savings Other Insurance Savings Local Foreign and Other Bonds Companies Banks Governments International Investors $62. 7 $52. 1 65.3 67.7 60.3 55. 6 85 ' 1 103.8 101.4 93.2 96.4 116.0 109.4 54.4 57.7 60.3 63.4 67.3 72.0 76.7 80.7 79.9 72. 5 68.1 Securities $7.4 $29. 1 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2 9.5 18.8 16.2 16.9 20. 8 21.3 12.7 15.5 15.7 16.7 29.6 31.1 33.3 36.2 56.7 75.6 20. 1 19.1 $3.1 3.1 3.4 2.9 2. 5 4.5 5.9 5.9 5.0 4.7 5.4 5.2 Co rations $7. 3 11.4 9.8 and $27. 8 12.4 21.3 25.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 34.2 19.6 64. 4 10.9 26. 1 20.5 22.9 25. 7 37.8 41.6 50.8 69.9 78.8 85.6 $19.8 46. 1 $19.9 58.8 66.5 78. 1 109.6 137.8 123.7 134.3 141.5 22. 1 54. 5 54.7 15.6 17.0 19.3 37.4 39.7 49.7 58.9 90.1 106.9 152.2 Percentage Distribution End of Calendar Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Total Privately Held 100% 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 ~rcial Banks 27. 4% 26.4 25.9 23.1 20. 5 24. 4 25. 3 22. 0 18.3 17.8 18.8 15.8 Indzvzduals Savings Other Mutual State Insurance Savings Local Bonds Ccanpanies Banks 22. 7% 22. 0 22. 0 23.1 23.4 19.3 17.6 16.6 15.9 14.8 11' 8 9.8 Securities 12.7't 7.6 6.2 6.5 7.7 6.1 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.7 9.2 10.9 3.2% 2.8 2.5 2.5 2. 3 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 3 2 ~ 2.8 1.4% 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 Office of the Secretary of the Treasury "Includes small amounts of matured debt on which interest has ceased. Corporations 3.2% 4.6 3.7 4.2 4.6 6.1 6.4 4.4 3.9 4.2 4. 2 5.4 and Governments 12.1% 10.3 11.0 11.2 10.8 9.8 11.0 10.2 12.7 12.9 12.7 12.3 Foreign and Other International Investors 8.6% 18.7 20. 8 21.0 21.7 19.0 19.1 23.8 27. 1 22.9 21.8 20.4 8.7% 6.3 6.5 7.4 8.2 10.7 9.7 10.8 11.6 16.7 17.3 21.9 March 17 1982 Chart j. PRIVATE HOLDINGS OF TREASURY MARKETABLE DEBT BY MATURITY $Bil 600 500 COUPONS 580.7 ~Over 10 years : ~~;. 2-10 years A@1-2 years ggg1 66.1 year & under 149.0 BILLS 400 300 80.0 200 195.3 100 0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 As of December Olleu ol the gestatory ol tha Treasury Ogica ot Government Financing 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 31 January 2$, 1982.1 Chart 2 AVERAGE LENGTH OF THE MARKETABLE DEBT Years 10 ~ Privately Held June 1947 10 Years Months 5 Months December 1981 48 Months g 50 45 40 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 1961 December 1975 2 Years 5 Months 1945 47 Once ol the Secreterr ol the Treasure Or. ,ce ol Government Financing 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 Jenuery 26 ltt82 4 Chart 3 USE OF AUTHORITY TO ISSUE TREASURY BONDS WITH INTEREST RATE OVER 4'/4 PERCENT $Bil. 100 $Bil. 100 Gelling increased to $70 billion 80 80 October 3, 1980 60 60 Amount 40 40 Outstanding $10 billion ceiling $10 billion applied only authority enacted March 17, 1971 Privately Held to private holdings July 1, 1973 20 20 ~OOOOOOOOO 1971 1972 1973 OOO~N~OO™~ 1974 1975 1977 of December 31 As &Issued or annoiJnced Ollfce of Ihe ruecretary ol the Treasury Oltfce ol Gwemment Finanong 1976 through December 1978 1979 1980 1981~ 31, 1981 January 26, ttt82. 21 Chart CUMULATIVE $Bil 0 l 4 NET CASH FLOW IN SAVINGS BONDS' $Bil. '00000000000000000000 000000000000000000000000 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ~ 000000 ~0000000 000000 0 1978 ~e ~ 1979 1981 ~e ~O ~ 0 ~ ~ 1980 -10 -10 ~ 0 ~ eo F M A 0 M N p 12 Month pf yest Oflme of Ihe Secretary of the Treasury Goaernment Financing Ofhce d Cash sales less redemptions jj e January 1982 estimated partly January 26, 1662.5 epartment of the treasurV ~ Washinclton, For Release Upon Delivery Expected at 7:30 p. m. , EST p.c. ~ TelePhone 568-2O4 Remarks Prepared For Delivery By The Honorable Donald T. Regan Secretary of the Treasury The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Dinner The Bellevue Stratford Hotel Philadelphia, Tuesday, Pennsylvania 23, 1982 "Choices" Narch Senator Heinz, thank you for a very kind introduction. The are fortunate indeed to have you people of Pennsylvania representing them in Washinaton. I might also add that the Administration has had numerous reasons to be appreciative of your presence in the Senate. Some of you may be aware of the fact that I once ran the merrill Lynch office in Philadelphia. That was a very happy experience for me, so I'm especially delighted to groin you here tonight. In fact, the only thina I'd welcome more than an opportunity to address this group is an eight percent prime rate. The vitality of this city is manifest in the new structure It's particularly that houses the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. fitting that the Exchange's opening be celebrated this year-the three hundredth anniversary of the founding of Pennsylvania. I was e pecially taken with the design of a trading floor I'm that allows the public to observe the exchange in operation. sure the public will be edified by the civility, protocol and decorum that prevail among the traders on the floor. I'm very impressed by the new building that now the exchange. The structure's modern design and sophisticated communications systems bespeak a forward looking, innovative and energetic financial community in Philadelphia. Seriously, houses Still, in the course of the transition, you' ve been able to preserve some of the old values and traditions. For instance, I believe that -- despite the move -- you' re still within range of Bogart's and the Newstand. And I'm clad the Exchange has stayed in the center city area, because the truest test nf any broker's mettle is a daily commute down the Schuylkill Expressway. That experience is one cf the in Philadelphia since my departure. few things unchanged In ano ir the nation. But much else has changed in Philadelphia the pace and scope of change durina recent years is fact, R-690 to validate the observation by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who said: "Nothina endures but change. " nealected to say was that chanae occurs What the philosopher either by chance or by choice. It's that last factor -- choice the truly human element in chanae -- that I'd like to address this evenina. choices by the American people One of the most sianificant was made more thar. a year aao with the election of Ronald Reagan. That was when the electorate said, "enouah"-- erouah of erratic economic policies -- enouah of inflation -- enouah of tax rates that penalize incentive and discouraae investment -- enough of aovernment that hinders productivity by absorbing resources from the private sector -- and enouah of aovernment that sacrifices initiative on the altar of reaulation. The electorate voted for enouah chanae. In making that choice, the American people didn't merely swap one Administration for another, or place a new tenant in the White House; they demanded a new course in the affairs of the nation -- tack for the ship of a new state. It' s The new course we' ve plotted is for the iona term. intended to produce sustained economic growth and it will. It' s intended to produce jobs -- and it wil3. It's intended to produce lower interest rates -- and zt will. These are the objectives that the Administration sought when it first devised its program for economic recovery. That program emeraed from a series of choices. We could have chosen to seek a balanced budaet on the backs of the taxpayers; we chose instead to cut back the arowth of aovernment spendina. we We could have allowed inflation to increase federal revenues; chose instead to cut personal tax rates and index them. We could have chosen the auick fix of inflatina our way into prosperity; we chose instead to encouraae the Federal Reserve in a policy of slow, steady arowth in the money supply. Fir. ally, marketplace, endeavor. we chose to reduce reaulatory intrusions into the eminently successful in that and we' ve been The cumulative effect of all those choices is a policy that has begun to turn the economy back to the producers of this country -- to those who can aenerate growth, and jobs, and real wealth. And we' ve begun to see some of the results of policy. For the declined. phenomenon. first time in seven years, inflation has actua, say that was an anomaly -- a transitory That may be partially true, but I' ll waaer that Some there will be more of those phenomena in the months ahead -- more indicators of progress toward our qoals of strona, real economic arowth. for the are beginning For example, first time in years union contract to reflect -- at least in part -- the lowering of inflationary expectations. That's been manifest most recently in the automobile industry. Those settlements are portents of declining inflation. settlements if We are we have approaching a new economic environment. not as yet broken the back of inflation, we at pinned to the mat. it have rapidly And least And inflation will stay pinned even durina the economic recovery that is beginr inq to emerae. Last week, for example, the Federal Reserve announced a 1.6 percent increase in industrial production and 1.2 percent rise in capacity use. as Aristotle said: "One swallow does not a summer " And one or even two positive indicators does not make a recovery. Nevertheless, as sprinq continues, we' ll see more swallows in the form of positive indicators, and we' ll come into the summer with the recovery under a full head of steam. Granted, make. All this of course is predicated on prompt, deliberate conaressional action on President Reagan's budget. Adlai Stevenson once said: ".. . there are no qains without pains. " This Administration made the tough choices that went into our budqet proposal. It's time for Conqress to accept its portion of pain, and the fiscal choices that will stimulate economic growth and maintain the nation's security. I believe the Administration would welcome bipartisan alternatives that don't try to balance the budget on the backs of the taxpayers, or impede our ability to defend the nation. make We others understand the misqivings of members of Congress are worried about budaet deficits. and who Let's outset; this Administration is deeply Like taxes, deficits finance excessive by deficits. government spending and absorb resources better left in the private sector. We are opposed to them as a matter of principle; and intend to see a budqet in balance ultimately. But the deficit must be put in some perspective; it can't be viewed in isolation from the rest of the economy. Granted, viewed in isolation and in terms of sheer dollars, the prospected budget deficit is the largest in our history. troubled be clear from the But that does not hold true if you put the deficit in the context of the total economy. For fiscal 1983, we' re proiectina a deficit that amounts to 3. 1 percent of the qross national product. The f isca1 1976 def icit amounted to 4. 5 percent of the qross national product. In fact, a number of other industrial nations during the last several years have consistently posted deficits areater than ours products. And I include when compared to their gross national amona them West C-'ermany, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom. While our estimated budget deficit for 1981 amounts to two percent of our aross national product, Japan's is estimated at 3.6 percent. Indeed, Japan has in the past run a deficit as high as 5. ~ percent of its qross national product. Japan's experience with inflation, interest real growth stands in marked contrast to ours. The reason is primarily its stable monetary policy and hiah rate of In 1980, for example, gross savina as a percentaae of savinq. Japan's GNP was a little more than 30 percent. Our gross savinq rate, on the other hand, was 18.3 percent, sliqhtly more than half that of Japan. Deficits must be financed, either by borrowing a portion of national savings, or by inflationary money creation. Japan has a hiqh enouqh savinas rate to finance a deficit with enough savinqs left over for investment and growth without rapid money creation. Conseauently, Japan's inflation rate and interest rates have Nevertheless, rates and remained low. The U. F. on the other hand has done too little saving and allowed too much money creation over time. The result has been slow arowth, rapid inflation and hiqh interest rates. We irtend to chanqe that. Increasing the rate of saving in the United States has been of our major objectives. We believe that goal has been achieved, and that as a result, private savinq will be several times the total borrowina reauirement of the federal government in fiscal 1983 and fiscal 1984. one If current and projected deficits it is a lack of economic qrowth. are symptomatic of anything to balance the budaet, while raising living through economic growth that enlarges the tax base. We want to see arowinq payrolls that will contribute to federal revenues, not higher taxes on a declining number of workers and The only way standards, is businesses. The Conqress budqet with tax objective. Between has tried time increases. And and it 1974 and 1981, despite time aqain to balance the hasn't accomplished the several leaislated tax reductions, we still national overall federal tax receipts rose S338 billion; yet. accumulated deficits debt in excess of a of S350 billion, trillion dollars. and today have a Raising taxes does not balance budgets. Tax increases simply give the federal qovernment more to spend on federal programs that create constituencies for even qreater spendinq. postponinq the tax transform a tax proqram cuts, or eliminatina altoqether would savino, and productivity into just another attempt to fir e tune the economy. If, as Francis Bacon said, "History makes men wise, " then we'd do well to learn from past attempts to attack deficits throuah tax increases rather than spending cuts. President Lyndon Johnson imposed a surtax of 7. 5 percent in 1968, ten percent in 1969, and 2. 5 percent in 1970. oriented toward them work, And from late 1969 to late 1970, real gross national product almost doubled. But more declined one percent and unemployment to the point, the deficit -- from beina marginally in balance in 1969 -- arew to S23 billion in 197 1. The tax increases reduced savinq, investment and qross national product, and led to a hiqher deficit. If anythinq, that marqinal balance of S3.2 billion in the 1969 budget was an exception that proved the rule: Taxes won' balance the budaet, they' ll simply bloat the government. You know, I know, money to Washinqton, way every taxpayer knows that, if you send The only ll find a way to spend spending is to tighten the purse strings. and it. they' to cut qovernment That's what we did t Now the free when we cut tax rates. are complaininq about deficits. They' re tryina to conceal their real desires for more taxes and more spenders in Conaress spendina. fact is plain to anyone who's paid attention to It's a fundamental-Washington during that last two decades. That principle then some. Another that Congress will spend everything principle of Congress is this: it It is limit action on the tax code once Congress opens takes in and impossible to up to chance. it Their leqislative axe will fall on much more than just the third year of the tax cut. It will very likely fall on other tarqets -- the cut in the tax on unearned income from seventh' to fifty percent, for example, or the reduction in the long term capital qains tax to twenty percent. trust. that no one here is naive enough to believe that Conqress will eliminate or PostPone Personal tax relief, and leave other aspects of the tax program untouched. tax on unearned income and the twenty And if the maximum percent tax on long term capital gains are chanqed -- and they very well could be -- you can kiss much of the strenqth in the new issues market goodbye. The proqram have we in place should stay in place. Tampering with the tax program in the name of balancing the message to the economy-budget would send a clear, unmistakable a message that would say, "We' re back to business-as-usual back to the old stop and ao policies. belief that the branch -- is incapable of takinq the long-term actions necessary for real growth. And that belief in turn will keep interest rates high. That message will confirm the markets government specifically the leqislative -- to the current crux of the economic problem-interest rates. Looked at from my vantage point, there is little reason for rates to be as high as they are. &o now we come hiqh The more I search for a reason for current the more I'm reminded of the young Irish girl Confession. interest rates, who went to She told the kindly have committed the sin old curate that she was afraid she might of vanity. "Every mornina I look in the mirror, " she told the father, "and I think how beautiful I am. " The voice in the confessional replied: "Dc n't be afraid. That's not a sin. It's a mistake. " Today's interest rates are no lauahinq matter. After all, real interest rates have historically run three or four percent above the inflation rate. But in recent years, layered on top of real rates, have been premiums for inflation and for uncertainty. Those premiums were understandable in the climate of inflation that existed before this Administration took office. Clearly, today there is little reason for addina a premium for inflation -- at least not at the levels that obtpin today. does it take to convince the markets that the committed to slow, steady growth in the money supply, to not monetizina the debt, and to restoring the economy to a non-inflationary course? How much government is seriously Think about this for a moment; Federal borrowing this year will take about twenty-two market. percent of the funds in the credit In 1975, the government preempted fourty-two percent of the credit available and interest rates were declining. In light of this year's relatively minor pressure on the credit markets, one can only conclude that real interest rates of seven or eight percent -- if not unconscionable -- are at least paradoxical. I'm sure that in time that paradox will be resolved as we toward a growing economy -- one without the torments of inflation -- one that affords every one the prospect of move prosperity. In the final analysis problems of economic policy are human Behind the cold numbers issued by the Bureau of Labor problems. Statistics are people and families who ask only the opportunity to put their skills to work in some productive endeavor. understand that human dimension, to put our policy where our principles We President announced creating enterprise that and we' re are. This leaislation he would send zones that will promote fu3 ly prepared mornina the to Congress eccnomic orowth in areas. It's a strategy that we believe will revitalize many of the in the inner depressed areas in this country -- particularly depressed cities' that reducing the burdens of taxation ar d federal We believe regulation will create a hospitable economic atmosphere in these zones -- one that encourages new businesses and preserves existing businesses. combination of tax incentives will be provided for tax credit employers: among them are a five percent investment tax credit and a for capital investments in personal property, for waaes paid to employees who were considered disadvantaged A when hired. The program also contain incentives over welfare; it's a five percent working in the Fnterprise Zone. work for people who choose tax credit to employees incentives is built into the j egislation. A host of other estimate that the package, as proposed, will allow the creation of as many as twenty-five Fnterprise Zones. We This program represents more than mere abstract care for the Our concern is real, active, and in a poor and disadvantaged. President Reagan, myself and most of the cabinet sense personal. are old enough to remember the lean years. Our generation has been marked by that experience, iust as a later aeneration was Ard to marked by the experience of the war in Vietnam. Rememberina our past, we will not paraphrase George Santayana: be condemned to repeat it. Rather than repeatina the past -- either the past of the thirties, or the recent past of inflation and periodic slumps-we instead look to a future that will be different. And In that future we see a vibrant, this year. we see it beainnina Thank you. secure, productive nation. epartment of the vreasury d'or Release U n March 23, 1982 9:00 AM EST ~ Washinciion, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 Deliver Contact: Marlin Fitzwater 566-5252 Remarks by Donald T. Regan Secretary of the Treasury Bucknell University Lewisburg, Pennsylvania March 22, 1982 "Moralit and Ca italism" I am delighted to be at Bucknell University today to talk tomorrow's entrepreneurs about capitalism and the values that make it work. You know, one of the elements essential to which is why I know is faith the character of an entrepreneur I'm preaching to the choir here at Bucknell. You see, I know there's no doubt in your minds that the next time you meet Lehigh in a football game you' re going to win with -- Perhaps I shouldn't have taken such liberty, however, in The any of you expect or want to become entrepreneurs. highbred and highbrows of this world have often looked askance at those "in trade. " The very name "capitalist" was dreamed up by intellectuals in the middle 1800's as an insult. You know the went: capitalists are a useful sort, but you wouldn' t way assuming it to marry one too many Americans really do feel that Unfortunately, capitalism is not very noble, that somehow our economic system is something to apologize for. Today I hope to rid you of any such I believe capitalism proves its misplaced feelings of guilt. character traits engendered those two first, morality in ways: in the people who practice it and second, the effect it has had The theory of in raising the standard of living for all mankind. capitalism may be prosaic, but its effects make it the most moral want any your daughter people have ever tried. capitalist, and proud to be one. part of this country's phenomenal I have been contributing to the growth of process of production. -increasing its well-being, not just spending its cur society Benefits. I believe capitalism to be an honorable way of life a.-d one that encourages man's better nature. I have no intention of defending big Don't get me wrong. business or corporate America.-- Those impersonal institutions no much of their stock is held by longer belong to individuals groups -- so they feel less strongly the constraints of Belonging to no one in individual values, needs and morality. to only the bottom responsible line, too many have particular and bureaucracies government than cradles of become more like Not R-69] Well, I stand before you a just a consumer, I am risk-taking What It entrepreneurial and I may is do defend be dull, and spirit. commerce. rarely heroic, but a nation of small is a nation whose people hold close those practical virtues known as "bourgeois" values. Democratic capitalism encourages thrift, discipline, hard word, public-spiritedness It rewards individual effort, which is why it and, yes, honesty. is no accident that capitalist countries in the world are outproducing socialist ones by nearly 2 to 1. merchants But I don't think capitalism's intellectual critics find a lack of morality in our system, I think they just find its code of ethics, the values it encourages, to be, well, boring. Commercial societies tend to produce a citizenry that is non-ideological, moderate, and willing to non-self-righteous, split the difference. It must seem terribly unromantic to those yearn for righteous purity, but it kept society from the frequent divisive strife endemic to so many other lands. who Americans have been called every name in the book materialistic, narcissistic, selfish, mean-spirited and petty. After all, their entire way of life is based on self-interest. But a funny thing happens to the theory on its way to reality. Somewhere along the line we all realize that we can't calculate our self-interest properly without having a respect for others. The merchant who cheats his customers, belittles his clients, the the' salesman who gouges his buyers will soon be looking for other ways to make a living. We learn, in our free commercial dealings, to be sensitive to the desires of others, tolerant of their differences, understanding of their wants and even neighborly to our fellow citizens. businessman who The theory of capitalist selfishness is forever belied the truth of the reality. We are, in fact, a nation of volunteers, friends. of charitable organizations, of magnanimity and by of As a matter of fact, it has recently been estimated that about 52 percent of adult Americans -- 84 million of us -- work in our spare time at some worthy cause, or contribute to That's the kind of people our system produces, and that's the kind of character that keeps us strong. it. But, in truth, I have stepped out of my capitalist role temporarily. I went to Washington at President Reagan's request because I feel, as he does, that this country is drifting dangerously far from that well-charted course first laid out for us by our Founding Fathers. Past leadership in Washington has falsely led too many of our people to believe that somehow our system of democratic capitalism caused our economic problems at home and around the world. We' ve been told that our appetites have ravaged nations underdeveloped their resources. Well, let's just of Democratic Ca States -- robbing and plundering take a look at what capitalism italism -- lays it our pretty has done clearly. to Until came into being in 1776, the classical pattern of political economy was mercantilist. Famines ravaged the civilized world on the average of once a generation. Plagues the United seized scores of thousands. In the 1780's four out of five French families devoted 90 percent of their incomes simply to buying bread -- only bread -- to stay alive. Life expectancy in France was about 27 years for women and 23 for men. the beginning of the 19th century, travelers from Europe, accustomed to poverty at home, were appalled by the still more unspeakable conditions they found in Africa and Asia. In most places, elementary hygiene seemed unknown. In Africa, the wheel had never been invented. Most of the planet was unmapped Hardly any of the world's cities had plumbing systems. Potable water was mostly unavailable, and ignorance was so extreme that most humans did not know that unclean water spreads disease. At ~ But the American revolution exploded onto the scene at almost the same time as Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations. The world would never be the same. In reality the American way of life, enterprise in liberty, is the world's only hope. There should be no doubt that our Founding Fathers fully intended this land to be one of commerce, encouraging creativity, risk-taking, investment and moral responsibility. By the year 1800 there were more private business corporations in the infant United States than in all of Europe combined. It's it's hard to write a poem about The inspiring song about the marketplace. theoretical of socialism seems much more attractive and noble. But all we have to do is look around us to see the proof that America has been the glory of modern times. been said that or sing equality moneymaking an have brought light where before there was We capitalists darkness, heat where once there was only cold, medicines where there was sickness and disease, food where there was scarcity, and wealth where humanity In Novak's words, beings finally figured sustained, systematic was living in squalor. "After five millennia of blundering, out " how wealth may be produced in a way. human look beyond the theory to find the morality of look too far. We have only to see its we needn't effects to realize that democratic capitalism has lifted the standard of living for more people in more places in a shorter period of time than any other system in the history of mankind. We must capitalism, but It is a system that requires the apology of no American. scratch the surface of even its theory, if you look closely at what makes capitalism work, you will also find, as Irving Kristol writes, its moorings in morality. Alexander Hamilton, the first Secretary of Treasury, made of public clear that the maintenance of good credit, theitspaying He citizens. and Nation debts, was essential for both the "States, said "good faith" was key to our success, explaining, are respected like individuals, who observe. their engagements, who pursue of those, fate the is while the reverse and trusted: " " and said, "in He cited "moral obligation, an opposite conduct. "between public the order of Providence" there is a connection virtue and public happiness. " But What if you has become known as the Puritan ethic was the Our system. with taking of America's political Fathers did not equate self-interest They designed a political and economic advantage of others. system to be run by a people under God and trusting in God, working His will in their daily lives. can work is way capitalism As a matter of fact, the ~onl fairness and compassion when equity, when it is tied to morality, are the hallmarks of its people, and when the limited government that oversees the system is ready and able to help those who cannot help themselves. foundation Founding and economic of capitalism that I have just gone through is also at the heart of this Administration's economic policy. human drive to make a The same key elements -- the natural, better life; the risk-taking and the faith in the entrepreneurial spirit -- are also the keys to the President's program for The philosophy economic recovery. believes, as I do, that big government has been booming out of control in the last few decades while our We don' t economy has limped from one recession to another. believe the system has suddenly failed us, that it has outlived its usefulness, or that it is too simple for today's complex world. We believe that some of our leaders have failed the President Reagan system. the tax burden has escalated -- increasing more than 200 percent in the last ten years -- and as social spending has -- Government outlays in the same period went up by mushroomed 300 percent the values of work and family were slowly being eroded. As — last 15 years, the cost of our food stamp program has gone up more than 16, 000 percent. In just 10 years Medicaid and Medicare have increased by more than 500 percent. At the same time inflation and interest rates were soaring, unemployment was In the climbing and the misery index for Americans hit an all-time high. is no question that we in this country have a solemn to take care of our needy, to feed those who are hungry and shelter those who are cold. Our elderly must be allowed to live out their lives in security and dignity. We do not propose to abandon those values nor undo that style of compassionate life known as the American Way. Far from it, we are desperately trying to save it. On behalf of the young couple who dreams of buying their own to wring out inflation and bring these home, we are struggling intolerable interest rates down. On behalf of those who have no jobs, we have proposed programs that will provide them work. We have created new incentives for small business and for industry, incentives that will result in new jobs and new opportunities. On behalf of our elderly, our handicapped and our disadvantaged we have reaffirmed our commitment and redoubled our efforts to protect them from the inflation that has been ravaging their On behalf of all Americans, pensions. we are returning our government and our economy to the people. After too many decades of more and more spending and more and more taxing, our program for economic recovery returns sane fiscal policy to Washington. The joke is that if you laid all the economists in Washington end to end they'd never reach a conclusion, but the truth is that the economic advisors in Washington have consistently believed that all our problems would There obligation if only we would spend more. and then spent even more than that. go away So our leaders taxed more This Administration has no intention of turning its back on Americans in need of help, but when these programs have been growing with wanton disregard for so many years, why does a proposal to cut their rate of growth send so many people on Capitol Hill up in arms? automobile workers are suggesting their own has no pay cuts just to keep their jobs, this Administration intention of succumbing to the spending addiction so rampant in the Congress. At a time when salary increases are no longer just falling behind but the wages themselves are being cut, well, the believes big government should tighten its belt, Administration as well. At a time when all-intrusive Federal Government never has worked and it will, and it is time some people in Washington realized the rest of the country is tired of it. me be very clear that we in the Reagan Administration An never believe that economic sanity includes balancing wholeheartedly I wouldn't mind if balancing the budget budget. the Federal a requirement of the Constitution. became But I don' every year t it. is by making that auto worker's check even smaller. we refuse to balance the budget on the back of the already weary American taxpayer. We appreciate you see, we believe in the American system. of capitalism have done for what the incentives and motivations this country and the world. We propose to unleash them again. spirit back in the center of to put the entrepreneurial We intend the be wellspring of progress our economy so once again it can and the promise of a better life for all our people. Our programs have only begun to take effect, but surprise! Look what has happened in only half a year! Changes in the capital gains tax have spurred investor interest in new In that companies, with more than 400 going public last year. investor the sense, 1981 was a record year for the risk-taker, That means more competition, more progress and the entrepreneur. and a better deal for the consumer. think the way to do Such a program, instant gratification. it is true, offers But it is fair, no quick fixes, no and is compassionate. it Although we were able Let me also set the record straight. to pass, last year, the largest budget cuts in history, these And cuts only slowed the rapid increase in government spending. across-the-board, tax our 25 rate 3-year, percent although reduction is the largest tax cut working Americans have ever experienced, it also only offsets the incredible increase already in our scheduled If taxes. the rate at which government programs are you understand the salaries of the a rate which by far outdistances Americans who must pay for them you get a better perspective on the cuts we propose. We have never suggested -- growing working -- spending less in next year's budget only want to reduce the increase! Let services me we than in the year before. give you a few examples of the level of are still providing in the 1983 budget: We human -- Nearly 7 million separate loans or awards will be made available for students in higher education through Federal assistance programs. Since the college-level population numbers only slightly more than 11 million, that means better than one out of every two students has the opportunity for assistance. Although reduced from last year by about $1.5 billion, the 1983 budget provides more than $12 billion in total tuition support, nearly three times the level available in 1977. -- The Federal Government will subsidize approximately 95 million meals per day, or l4 percent of all meals served in the United -- States' Through Medicaid and Medicare, the Federal Government wi» pay for the medical care of 99 percent of those Americans over the age of 65: approximately 47 million aged, disabled and needy people, 20 percent of our population. -- Twenty-eight percent of all Federal spending will go to the elderly -- an average of $7, 850 per senior citizen in services' -- About $2. 8 billion will be spent on training and employment programs for almost 1 million low-income people, nearly 90 percent of whom will be below the age of 25 or recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children. payments and -- About -- And 3.4 million American households will receive housing assistance at the beginning of 1983. By the end of 1985, under Reagan Administration proposals, 400, 000 more households will be added to the list. subsidized just today, President Reagan sent to the Hill for a new effort to revive the decaying areas of legislation America's inner cities and rural towns. The "Enterprise Zone Tax Act" is an experimental, free market program for dealing with the severe problems of our Nation's economically depressed areas. I think Admnistration safety net is these examples clearly demonstrate that we in this are not turning our backs on America's needy. The still there. But our program to rely again our people in so found their much to cut spending, cut taxes, cut regulations -- on the magic of the marketplace only hope of avoiding the scarcity of the rest of the world. also offers and misery the globe for proof that control, further punishing our producers robbing everyone of incentive -- in short socializing our One need increasing only look around government and economy -- will not work. In Russia, the average worker produces only half the goods and services of his American counterpart. His economy has been described as one of "scarcity underlined by bribe giving and bribe long lines at stores, black marketeering, taking. " Already grim, his living standards are expected to decline even more. Economic growth rates are sliding to near zero levels' admits publicly that, "It is becoming clear that for a full 30 years we have been unable to solve problems associated "with production under socialism, either As a news magazine recently reported, in theory or in practice. for the 1.5 billion inhabitants of the Communist world, the Marxist promise of a worker's paradise has turned into a nightmare of permanent scarcity, economic stagnation and A Czechoslovak economist discontent. In poland such economic discontent was put down with off. Travel was forbidden. Mail was restricted, telegrams. You couldn't send or receive rounded were Malcontents up and imprisoned. opened and censored. Newspapers were closed down and television was taken over by the tactics. Orwellian Phones were cut army. It not long after that military crackdown in Poland that intellectual who Susan Sontag, the very model of a left-liberal the of her colleagues jeers through visited Hanoi, spoke had once to revise her assessment of communism. was "There are many lessons to be learned from the Polish events, " she said, "but I would maintain, the principle lesson is the . . . failure of communism, the utter villainy of the It has been a hard lesson to " learn. And I communist system. struck by how long it has taken us to learn it. I only hope we am have. and Our system of democratic genius of the individual, for it capitalism, with based on the freedom individual rights and responsibilities under representative government and the rule of law, was a unique and precious gift to the world. It has been handed carefully to us by our forefathers, and it is ours to protect and nurture for the generations that are to follow. to America's youth, as they rise to take their My message places in American business, government and society, is to care well. Lincoln once said that we Americans, the freest will determine our own fate. If it is to be greatness, we will have built it; if it is to be destruction, then we will have wrought it. "As a Nation of freemen, " he said, "we must live through all time or die by suicide. " Abraham people in the world, leave Bucknell that responsibility will become needs the dreams of its youth. We need their and their passion for equity, justice and fairness. Our country needs its best minds and all our energies as much now as in any crisis in our history. There can be no new wealth unless we create it, no new discoveries unless we find them. And we will neither create nor discover until we once again are willing to gamble that we have it within ourselves to shape a better tomorrow -- to bring progress and prosperity to our country and the world When yours. ideals you America Join us in our crusade to breathe new life into our system of enterprise in liberty. Restore with us the values that make it work. Together let us be sure that future generations never freedom say was Thank lost between you very much. us. of ihe Treasury ~apartment FOR RELEASE AT 4: 00 P . M ~ Washington, D.C. o Telephone 566-204% March ~ TREASURY'S NEEKLY 23, 1982 BILL OFFERING of the Treasury, by this public notice, for two series of Treasury bills totaling approximately $9, 400 million, to be issued April 1, 1982. This offering will result in a paydown for the Treasury of about $50 million, as the maturing bills are outstanding in the amount of $9, 444 million, including $2, 043 million currently held by Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities and $1, 426 million currently held by Federal Reserve Banks for their own account . The two series offered are as follows: The Department invites tenders 91 -day million, bills (to maturity date) for representing December 31, 1981, (CUSIP No 912794 AV 6 currently $4, 922 million, the additional and . interchangeable ), . 182-day bills April 1, 1982, No. 912794 BN 3) approximately $4, 700 of bills dated 1, 1982 outstanding in the amount of an additional amount and to mature July original bills to be for approximately $4, 700 million, to and to mature September 30, 1982 freely be dated (CUSIP ~ series of bills will be issued for cash and in exchange bills maturing April 1, 1982. Tenders from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities will be accepted at the weighted average prices of accepted competitive tenders . Additional amounts of the bills may be issued to Federal Reserve Banks, as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities, to Both for Treasury the extent that the aggregate amount of tenders for such accounts exceeds the aggregate amount of maturing bills held by them . bills will be issued on a discount basis under competinoncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their par amount Both series of bills will be will be payable without interest. issued entirely in book-entry form in a minimum amount of $10, 000 on the records either of the and in any higher $5, 000 multiple, Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, or of the Department of the Treasury tive The and . R-692 Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D. C . 20226, up to 1:30 p .m . , Eastern Standard time, Monday, March 29, 1982. Form PD 4632-2 (for 26-week series) or Form PD 4632-3 (for 13-week series) should be used to submit tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000 . Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5, 000 . In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with three decimals, e .g . , 97 .920 . Fractions may not be used . Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities if the names of the may submit tenders for account of customers, customers and the amount for each customer are furnished . Others are only permitted to submit tenders for their own account. Each tender must state the amount of any net long position in the bills being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million . This information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p .m . Eastern time on the day of the auction . Such positions would include bills acquired through "when issued" trading, and futures and forward transactions as well as holdings of outstanding bills with the same maturity date as the new offering, e .g . , bills with three months to maturity previously offered as six-month bills . Dealers, who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million . Payment for the full par amount of the bills applied for must accompany all tenders submitted for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the difference between the par payment submitted and the actual issue price as determined in the auction . deposit need accompany tenders from incorporated banks companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches . A deposit No trust and percent of the par amount of the bills applied for must tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company accompanies the tenders . of 2 accompany Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Compet. itive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection' of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all .tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretary's action shall be final Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500 i000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. ~ Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on April 1, 1982, funds in cash or other immediately-available or in Treasury bills maturing April 1, 1982. Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the of discount at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax return of the owner as ordinary income The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount Under amount is determined by multiplying such discount by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of the bill. If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer's ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gain. of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the Public Department Nos. 26-76 and Debt. epcmrtment of ihe Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE March 23, 1982 No ~ Washington, RELEASE Change D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204 CONTACT: in the Sale of Treasury Robert Don Levine (202) 566-2041 Securities The Department of the Treasury announced today that it has completed its review of procedures for small investor participation in Treasury security auctions and has decided not to It will continue to sell change its procedures at this time. Treasury bills, notes and bonds as has in the past at the main Treasury building in Washington and at Federal Reserve Banks and branches across the country. There will be no change in the minimum tender and no charge for this service. it R-693 department of the Treasliry FOR RELEASE AT ~ Washington, 4:00 P. M. O.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 March 23, 1982 $3, TREASURY TO AUCTION 250 MILLION OF 7-YEAR NOTES TREASURY CANCELS 20-YEAR BOND The Department of the Treasury will auction $3, 250 million of 7-year notes to raise new cash. Additional amounts of the notes may be issued to Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities at the average price of accepted competitive tenders. Treasury has exhausted its $70 billion authority to issue long bonds with coupons in excess of 4-1/4%. Due to Congressional inaction to expand Treasury's authority to issue long bonds, the 20-year bond normally announced at this time will not be sold. Details about the new security are given in the attached highlights of the offering and in the official offering circular. Attachment oOo R-,694 HIGHLIGHTS OF TREASURY OFFERING TO THE PUBLIC OF 7-YEAR NOTES 1982 ISSUED APRIL BE TO ' 7, 23, 1982 March Amount Offered: public. .... .. . . . . .. . .. ....... To the De scr ipt ion o f Sec ur Term and type o Series and CUSIP it . . ... . . ... . security. designation. .. ... . . . . . ... . ..... . . . . .. . ... ... . . . . . . . coupon rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . Maturity date. Call date. . . . Interest yield. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . or discount. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Investment Premium Interest Minimum Terms payment dates. denomination . .. . ...... available. investor. interest payable Payment by investors. non-institutional ~ due from None Noncompetitive $1,000, 000 or Full payment with tender .... Wednesday, date (final payment institutions) .... a) cash or Federal funds. . b) readily collectible check. Delivery date for coupon 4) at auction To be determined after auction To be determined October 15 and April 15 (first payment on October 15, 1982) Acceptable for receipt of tenders. Settlement NB April 15, 1989 No provision based on To be determined the average of accepted bids . . . . .by. . .designated . . . . .. . . .. .. ... Deposit guarantee Deadline (CUSIP No. 912827 by . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. .. .. . institutions. Series D-1989 Yield auction ... . . .. . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . allotment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Preferred 7-year notes . . . . . $1,000 of Sale: Accrued $3, 250 million . securities. 1:30 p. m. bid for less to be submitted March , EST 31, 1982, Wednesday, April 7, 1982 Monday, April 5, 1982 Monday, April 19, 1982 by Department of the Treasury Washington, ~ STATEMENT MARGERY O.C. ~ Telephone 566-204$ OF TAXMAN DEPUTY GENERAL COUNSEL DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS UNITED ON CONCERNING STATES SENATE MARCH PROPOSED 25i 1982 LEGISLATION INSPECTOR GENERAL ACT OF TO EXTEND THE 1978 TO THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to have the appear before this Committee and to provide Treasury concerning the proposed amendments General Act of 1978. Accompanying me is the Inspector General, Paul Trause. opportunity to the views of to the Inspector Department's the Assistant Secretary for Administration stated in her testimony before this Committee on April 8, 1981, the Treasury Department supports the establishment of a statutory Inspector General and agrees with the general thrust af this bill. In fact, we have had an administratively created Office of Inspector General since July 1978, and we are proud of the way that Office has functioned As . '81 the Department's internal half billion dollars in audit penalties, recoveries and additional revenues; $2 million in questioned costs disallowed through audits and approximately $9. 7 million in possible savings through new procedures. Further, the Department's internal investigators completed about 8500 investigations. These investigations resulted in over 210 prosecutions and over 1900 administrative disciplinary actions. The investigations also produced over $8. 8 million in penalties, recoveries and additional revenues . These accomplishments and the future of the Inspector General's office must be viewed in light of Treasury's mission. Unlike most Departments with statutory Inspectors General, the Treasury Department, with the exception of the revenue sharing program, administers neither grant nor entitlement programs. Further, Treasury does not engage in extensive contracting. Rather, Treasury's responsibilities During fiscal year produced over a auditors R-695 are in economic, tax, and monetary policy, tax administraIt also receives and disburses tion, and law enforcement. Thus, Treasury's audits and the Government's funds. investigations have focused on the adequacy of the Their goal has Department's internal control procedures. systems Department's the of the integrity been to protect are Treasury the monies handled that the ensure by and to processed expeditiously and safely. recognizes the unique nature The proposed legislation of the Treasury by protecting the Department's mandate to help establish the nation's economic policies and its law enforcement priorities while ensuring the independence of the Inspector General Because of the nature of Treasury's mission, the sensitivity of its activities, and its role in formulating that the economic and monetary policy, we have maintained must be kept functions internal audit and investigation the Department. separate from the unique policy functions of Section 8C(c) of the proposed amendments to the Act would . ensure this separation. for separating policy and audit functions can be seen most clearly as you begin to examine Treasury's For various economic and law enforcement functions. example, Treasury has offices which are involved in such areas as trade and investment policy, bank regulation, loan guarantees, international and domestic tax policy, foreign assets control and multilateral development banks. Decisions made by Treasury officials with respect to these activities are made in the context of broad economic and public policy considerations, both domestic and international. Empowering an Inspector General to review these policy decisions could not only affect Treasury, but the nation's economic and foreign policy as well. Second-guessing economic policy decisions through the Inspector General's Office could have a significant unintend« effect on the financial markets whose performance often reflects these policy decisions . This is particularly true because the Inspector General would be obligated by the Inspector General Act to make public semi-annual reports whic" would contain recommendations for corrective action in the Department's programs and operations. The need The same argument holds true in the area of law enforcement. For example, a decision made by officials of t&~ Customs Service to commit vast resources and staff power to & lengthy drug smuggling investigation might be viewed by an But law as inefficient or ineffective. Inspector activities are not meant to be measured solely enforcement in terms of cost effectiveness or from the Inspector General' s General Program officials with direct responsibility must exercise their professional judgment in these unique areas without the harmful effects of second-guessing by the Inspector General perspective. and expertise . Finally, to the extent that an Inspector General makes recommendations as to the wisdom of policy objectives of a particular program, he or she acquires a stake in the perceived effectiveness of these objectives. If the organization accepts the recommendations, the Inspector General is not then in a position to be as objective in assessing the achievement of its goals. The proposed legislation, however, does not limit the Inspector General's authority to review allegations that a decision was improperly influenced, or that funds, once allocated, were not properly expended or administered . This function traditionally has been at the heart of the Inspector General's role and, as the figures which I cited show, can be and has been performed effectively by the Treasury's Inspector General. Because this bill will protect the Inspector General's independence and enhance his ability to act aggressively against fraud, waste and abuse without functions, the impeding the Department's key policy-making Department, as previously stated, agrees with the establishment of a statutory Inspector General. We believe, however, that two changes should be made in specific bill. First, the program review function and the in the Customs Service, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms and the Secret Service should not be transferred to the Inspector General's Office. These units have f unctioned as in-house management consultants rather than as true internal auditors or investigators. ability to diagnose They are essential to line management's and to address problems before they become major crises. If managers are deprived of these resources, they simply will be forced to divert other resources to meet their legitimate needs. Therefore, transferring these resources management to the Inspector General's office will result in unnecessary duplication and will not add materially to the Inspector General's ability to combat waste, fraud and abuse. the related resources Second, Treasury does not believe that the Inspector General should be authorized to release information about an on-going criminal investigation The Department has adopted should not a consistent policy that this type of information be released and does not believe that the Inspector General should be exempted from this important policy. The official release of information about which there has been public speculation obviously could harm on-going investigations. . This concludes Thank you, that you I will may have. my now remarks on the proposed legislation. be pleased to answer any questions department of the Treasury ~ Washington, O.C. ~ Telephone 566-2141 FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY Expected at ll:30 24, 1982 March Testimony a. m. of the Honorable Assistant Subcommittee House Committee Mr. Chairman Roger N. Mehle, Secretary of the Treasury Jr. (Domestic Finance) Be fore the on Housing and Community Development of the on Banking, and members Finance and Urban Affairs of this distinguished Subcommittee: tions'~ I appreciate this opportunity to review with you again the condition of depository institutions, their ability to deliver credit to all sectors of the economy and the contingency plans available to deal with any problems confronting the instituIn particular, Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to present the Administration's testimony on H. R. 5568, the "Home Mortgage Capital Stability Act" introduced by Chairman St Germain. My testimony thrift institutions, today will focus on the current how we should be structuring condition of and modernaffect them, Chairman izing legislative and regulatory constraints that the role for measures like those suggested in St Germain's proposed legislation. Every action we take should be part of a process of building a strong and competitive framethe flexibility to work that will give our thrift institutions and to a changing financial environment forces for years to come. respond and shifting market of Thrift Institutions Despite enormous inflationary pressures, our depository institutions generally have been performing adequately. The foreign and domestic assets of Federally insured commercial banks increased 9-1% in 1981 and their return on equity, Condition R-696 after tax, was a healthy 13 2%, compared with 13.7% in 1980. Bank net worth increased 9. 3%. Federal credit unions increased their assets by 6. 4% in 1981 and achieved a rate of return on assets of . 57% in 1981 which is a three fold increase over their . 14% rate of return in 1980. (savings The one problem area involves thrift institutions assets of The banks). and loan associations and mutual savings mutual and savings associations Federally insured savings and loan in 1981. However, banks increased 5. 2% and 2. 4%, respectively, as a result of operating losses experienced by both types of institutions, their net worth declined 15.0% and 12. 38, respectively. There should be no doubt that the Administration is very much aware of the thrift industry's earnings, and hence, its net worth problems. We are concerned both for the health of the industry itself and for the flow of funds to the housing sector. As we discussed during my appearance before the full Committee last July, the fundamental problem facing thrift institutions is the structural imbalance between an asset portfolio dominated by long-term, fixed rate, low-yield mortgage instruments and liabilities increasingly dominated by rate-sensitive shorter-term deposit instruments. Thrift institutions are using an increasing amount of deposit liabilities with interest rates that vary with market rates to make new mortgage loans or to carry long-term mortgages The institutions' made in prior years at fixed rates of interest. deposits which are under Federal interest rate ceilings are inevitably eroding as customers take advantage of alternative market rate accounts both within and outside the institutions. This imbalance between increasingly rate sensitive liabilities and long-term rate insensitive assets is central to the thrift industry's earnings problems. For almost two years, short-term interest rates have exceeded the rates on most of the institutions' existing mortgages. As a result, thrift institutions have been paying more for their liabilities than they are earning on their assets, thus operating at a loss and eroding their net worthy Declining Net Worth; Until short-term cost of funds falls thrift institutions Adequacy of Cash Flow interest rates decline, and the average asset portfolio yield, will continue to experience operating losbelow the average ses eroding their net worth. The decline in net worth is important not for its own sake, since it does not determine a depository institution's ability to conduct its business, but because at some point depositors and lenders may become troubled by the erosion of an account commonly (and correctly) thought of as a mark of financial soundness for non-depository institutions. In addition, some state regulatory officials and others concerned with the industry's condition have come to accept net worth declines below some arbitrary minimum level as automatically necessitating a merger or liquidation of the institution in question. In at least one state a thrift institution may not pay interest on deposits if its net worth falls below a specified percentage of deposits. This is true despite the fact, as I said, that a decline in net day-to-day worth does not necessarily inhibit the institution's operations so long as the institution can maintain a positive cash flow. In contrast to its poor earnings performance for the past two years, the thrift industry has had, and continues to have, ample cash flow with which to conduct its business and meet its obligations to depositors. Interest income, mortgage principal repayments and Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings have more than offset withdrawals of thrift industry deposits Such excess funds have been during the last twelve months. invested in new, higher yielding assets, principally. mortgage loans, and have resulted in an increase in savings and loan assets by 5. 6% between the end of January 1981 and the end of January 1982. Interest Rate Dere ulation What the industry needs most immediately, along with the entire economy, is lower short-term interest rates. But for a long-term solution to the industry's problems, we must also deal with the asset and liability structure that limits the ability of thrifts to cope with high interest rates. During the twelve months ended January 31, 1982 only deposit categories paying market and near market rates of interest have generated additional deposit flows. Such accounts at savings and loan associations increased by $70. 2 billion, or 24. 6%, between January 1981 and January 1982, while those accounts paying less declined in the aggregate the 2-1/2 year by $55. 6 billion, also 24. 6%. In particular, alone an additional small saver certificate provided $40 billion -- an increase of 66% in 6 months -- after the Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee (DIDC) removed the 12% interest rate cap last August and let the rate float with the 2-1/2 year Treasury note yield. To assure all depository institutions' ability to continue to obtain deposit resources, the DIDC has acted to raise interest rate ceili'ngs and create new deposit strangulating account categories competitive with open market alternatives, particularly money market funds. On Monday, March 22, the time deposit indexed to 91-day DIDC created a three-month Treasury bill rates with a quarter of a percentage point interest rate differential in favor of thrift institutionsIn addition, the Committee acted to begin phasing out interest rate ceilings on time deposits starting with maturities of 3-1/2 years and over. Deregulation at the longer end of the maturity structure of regulated deposit accounts will enable all depository institutions to attract a more stable base of longer-term funds. Thrift Industry Problems Apart from the necessity for competitive deposit accounts, let us focus on the basic structural problems of the thrift industry. As I stressed in my July testimony before the full Committee, thrift institutions must have the ability to invest in a portfolio of assets which will provide greater rate sensitivity and allow a sufficient rate of return during all phases of the business cycle The long-time limitations imposed upon them to invest nearly exclusively in fixed rate mortgages is largely responsible for their present plight' Legislation has been introduced in both the House and the Senate to accomplish an important first step in removing governmental restrictions on the thrift industry. The relevant bills are the "Thrift Institutions Restructuring Act of 1981, " H. R. 4724, introduced by Congressman Stanton, and S. 1720, the "Financial Institutions Restructuring and Services Act of 1981." Congressman Stanton's bill and the comparable provisions of ST 1720 have the Administration's strong support, with few exceptions, and I urge the House Banking Committee to take prompt action on H. R. 4724. I will now review the most significant features of the legislation in the Administration's view and set forth our reasons for supporting them. Structural ~ Expanded tions Asset Powers Title II of the Stanton bill many commercial of the would give and lending such as the power same investment thrift institupowers that have, to make commercial and agricultural loans, with only such limitations as are applicable to a national bank of the same size. The bill' s banks now is appropriate, since our goal is to permit all depository institutions eventually to compete on equal terms. We recognize that this legislation would not eliminate all approach inequalities between thrift institutions and commercial banks, but would move us a long way in that direction. It is important that we make as much progress as possible in deregulating thrift institutions at this time; we can deal with remaining inequalities at a later date in other legislation. it Providing thrift institutions with new investment and lending powers need not diminish their contribution to housing finance, howevers Real estate lending is their area of greatest expertise and they are likely to continue expanding this activity. The ability to make a broader range of loans and investments should supplement their real estate lending and help the industry stabilize its earnings in periods when there is strong demand for other services, such as commercial and consumer loans, but a relatively lower demand for mortgages ~ Interstate and Interindustry Both HER. 4724 and interstate and rescue troubled Mergers S. 1720 interindustry commercial would authorize emergency mergers and acquisitions to banks and thrift institutions. so granted would greatly assist the regulaIt should tory agencies in coping with problem organizations. also reduce the cost to the Federal deposit insurance agencies by opening attractive markets to acquirers who might pay a in order to enter one of premium for a troubled institution those markets. for interstate and We regard provisions interindustry mergers and acquisitions as an essential element of any legislative assistance to the thrift industry . The flexibility Preemption of Due-on-Sale Clause Prohibitions has reviewed provisions of H. R. 4724 which would preempt state due-on-sale clause prohibitions and has determined that preemption is necessary The and Administration S. 1720 to Federally We would confine the preemption appropriate. chartered depository institutions, as well as lenders other than state chartered depository institutions -- approved for participation by the Secetary of Housing and Urban Development in any mortgage insurance program under the National Housing Act. State-chartered depository institutions have the ability to convert to a Federal charter if state due-on-sale prohibitions prove onerous or if the states do not eliminate such prohibitions. and Preemption of State Usury Ceilin s Deregulation and Monetary The Depository Institutions Control Act of 1980 preempts state usury ceilings on mortgage do not reinstate and commercial loans, if state legislatures the ceiling for their states within three years from the effective date of the Act. We favor provisions of S. 1720 which would preempt usury ceilings for all loans in the manner prescribed in the Deregulation Act. In our opinion, usury ceilings can only distort financial markets and credit flows Moreand do not reduce the cost of credit in the economy. over, if usury ceilings on consumer loans are not preempted thrift institutions will be discouraged from developing their new consumer loan powers. Now, Mr. Chairman, of thrift institutions. let me turn to the short term problems Institutions One of the principal advantages of a Federally insured depository institution is that it can offer accounts insured by an agency of the Federal government for the first $100, 000 of a customer's total deposits4 Although we believe that there is, no reason to question the ability of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) to meet their insurance obligations, a variety of commentators has expressed concern about whether the insurance agencies would be able to handle the problems of the thrift industry arising from their losses and consequent net worth decline. As a result, several actions have been taken to eliminate those concerns. First, senior Administration officials have stated publicly that the United States Government will do whatever might be necessary to aid the insurance agencies in their protection of depositors. The Secretary of the Treasury made this point specifically on Monday in an opening statement at the quarterly DIDC meeting. Second, Congressional resolutions have been passed by both the House and Senate which make clear Congress' position in this regard. We are not assuming the insurance agencies' liabilities and their responsibilities, but we are committing to assist them in the unlikely event that they need assistance. Public Confidence in Depository At the present time, the Treasury line of credit to the FDIC fund is $3 billion and to the FSLIC fund is $750 million. There seems to be question as to the adequacy of the FDIC line of credit, and the Administration cannot now foresee that even the FSLIC will have any need to draw on line little its of credit. Even after merger assistance, the FSLIC insurance fund balance at the end of 1981 was $6. 3 billion, as compared to $6. 5 billion at the end of 1980. The fund appears to be adequate for presently projected needs and certainly any likely rate of utilization will be slow enough to permit due reconsideration by Congress and the Administration of any need to expand the backup line. Income Capital Certificate Program To the extent that specific assistance is required to alleviate temporary net worth problems for those members of the industry that otherwise are viable, we believe that Federal agencies have the authority and means to furnish such assistance under current law. We believe the recently developed FSLIC Income Capital Certificate (ICC) program shows that adequate relief can be provided. The ICC is a security issued by savings and loan associations to the FSLIC in exchange for an FSLIC note, which provides the issuing association with net worth. These FSLIC notes do not require the use of cash except for interest payments, and therefore have only a limited Federal budget impact. There would be an additional budget expenditure only if the notes were required to be paid off in cash to an institution, which, given the adequacy of the industry's cash flow, is extremely unlikely. Already the FSLIC has used ICCs on four occasions to adjust net worth in connection with the merger of certain troubled institutions, and we understand that they will be using the In our opinion this program more extensively in the futures is exactly what is needed to accomodate thrift institution net worth problems. HER. 5568 Mr. Chairman, although we remain committed to working together with you in addressing the problems that prompted Chairman St Germain to introduce H. R. 5568, our objective is to obtain a solution to thrift industry problems that will minimize the cost to the Government and maintain the framework in which depository institutions have been able to serve the We have needs of their communities and the nation at larger examined H. R. 5568 carefully and have concluded that it is Moreover, we believe that certain parts of it unnecessary. would in fact harm the thrift industry. Under the current regulatory system the responsibility for maintaining solvency and ensuring profitable operation of thrift institutions resides first with the institutions themselves. The Federal insurance agencies share responsibility for insured deposits and so they assume a supervisory role in assuring that, by their own standards, an institution is operating so as to protect the integrity of insured deposits. operating with losses automatically Mandating that institutions qualify for restoration of net worth to some arbitrary level absolves both the institution and the agency of a substantial portion of their responsibility for protecting the income Providing continuing replenishment stream of the institution. of subsequent earnings losses further constrains the insurance agencies from taking corrective action they may deem necessary. The Federal deposit insurance agencies are experienced in their current range of remedial measures to individual institutions that are quite different with respect to financial structure and outlook, competitive market position, and other relevant factors. A rigid legislative assistance program with fixed terms can not be developed to meet all the circumstances H. R. 5568 is addressed to a broad the regulators encounter. financial need, but it does not provide sufficient flexibility to the regulatory agencies, flexibility necessary for ICC structuring features. such as eligibility, repayment terms, yield, level of net worth restoration, and treatment of future asset growth. Trying to make some statutory rule a common denominator will result in an inefficient and possibly adapting damaging program. With regard to its specific focus on housing, it is not clear to us that H. R. 5568 will generate additional funds for home building. Moreover, we are concerned about the specific requirement that 50 percent of an institution's net new deposits be used to issue mortgages at a rate of interest not more than one percent greater than the average cost of funds for the institution. This provision would further exacerbate the earnings and net worth problem of the institutions the bill is designed to help. In November 1981, insured savings and loan associations were earning 10.40% on their assets and paying 12. 04% for their funds. Charging no more than 1% greater than average funds costs would not close the earnings gap, but more importantly, it probably would not even cover the cost of the funds used for the loans because new funds now cost more than the average. The Money Market Certificate (MMC) ceiling rate for March 16-22 was 13.2% and the ceiling rate for thrift Small Saver Certificates (SSCs) was 14. 1%. Over half of the savings and loan industry deposits are held in MMCs and SSCs, and another ten percent of deposits are held in large certificates of deposit with no What is accomplished when savings and loan must pay 14% or more for new money but can only 13% for the loans made with those funds? ceilings. associations charge In addition, I would point out that savings and loan institutions are continuing to invest principally in housings During 1981 the net increase in mortgage loans outstanding at savings and loan associations contributed to 46% of the total increase in savings and loan association assets. Increases in mortgage backed securities were another 18% of the asset increase. As a result, mortgage related investments continue to constitute more than half of the total increase in assets even at a time when savings and loan associations might naturally try to arrange for greater diversity in their portfolios. H. R. 5568 would have had no effect over the past year, since there were no net new deposits requireand therefore no funds to which H. R. 5568's investment ments would have applied. Even if interest credited were included in the definition of net new deposits, as we believe it should be, only $6. 7 billion in housing investments would have been required in 1981. The $20. 8 billion increase in mortgage loans outstanding and mortgage backed securities was triple the size of this deposit increase. All of this leads me to conclude, Mr. Chairman, that H. R. 5568 does not advance our mutual objectives. Assistance to troubled depository institutions provided in the bill is not likely to be greater than that available through existing programs, and indeed the reinvestment requirement may be harmWe should observe carefully as ful to thrift institutions. the insurance agencies exercise existing authority and expand their use of the ICC program, rather than attempt to revise their authority before it becomes apparent that they need our assistance. In summary, we believe that the thrift industry can successfully weather the current adverse economic environment. It will need some help, but the wherewithal for that assistance is already available from the FDIC and FSLIC. If additional money or powers are needed by the agencies, the Administration will join the Congress in responding to that need. In the meantime, we should encourage the use of ICCs where appropriate and provide legislation supporting private solutions to the industry's problems, such as authorizing interstate and interpreempting due on industry mergers of troubled institutions, state and usury ceilings. sale clause prohibitions preempting 10 we must remove the legal restrictions lending and investment activities as institutions' on thrift do. No public policy dealing with would 1720 S. H. R. 4724 and if it did not attempt to deal sufficient be would this industry The public must not problems. structural industry's with the and inadequate thrift industry troubled a with be forced to cope short-term interest rates risc' everytime funds for housing Most importantly, Mr. Chairman, that concludes my testimony. pleased to answer any questions the Subcommittee I will be may have. Department of the Treasury ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2141 For Release U on Deliver Expected at 9:30 AM March 25, 1982 TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE MARC E. ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR INTERNATIONAL BEFORE THE IELAND AFFAIRS SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN INITIATIVE ON MARCH 25, 1982 Mr. Chairman, I welcome the opportunity to appear before your Committee to discuss the Caribbean Basin Initiative. This is a foreign policy program of high priority for this Administration and I hope we will be able to move forward quickly with The are proposing it. has been carefully crafted over the past several months and is aimed at addressing- the serious economic problems which confront the nations of the Caribbean and Central America. Through it we hope to be able to help its beneficiaries establish the foundations for more stable and sustained economic development and enhance their ties with the United States. package we of the Problems of the Countries in the Region The Caribbean Basin Initiative includes about two dozen countries with a total population of about 41 million. Combined GNP is about $40 billion, or $975 per capita but it ranges from less than $300 annually in Haiti to over $3000 annually in the Bahamas. These countries exported a total of about $10 billion to the U. S. in 1980, but only $4 billion if petroleum is excluded. Although the countries of the region are quite diverse in terms of size, resource endowment, and heritage, many of them suffer from a number of common economic problems. Nearly all have been hard hit by the precipitous rise in energy costs since 1974 which have increased their petroleum import bills on average six fold. Costs of financing other imports, notably by more than capital goods and food, have also risen rapidly. Nature on On the other hand, most of them are heavily dependent or a small number of primary products for the bulk of their In general, price increases for these products export earnings. one R-697 have not kept pace with those of imports. squeeze foreign exchange balance of payments larger countries. which The result has been a increasingly serious particularly for some of the has produced difficulties, At the same time, rising interest rates in international financial markets over the past few years have made it more difficult and expensive for them to borrow. In some instances, such borrowing was not even a possibility because of the perception This has that the prospective borrower was not creditworthy. and real capital made it difficult to obtain both the financial economic growths necessary to produce an acceptable rate of Another problem is limited market size. Virtually all of the countries in the area have populations of less than 7 million While people and several have less than one hundred thousand. inteeconomic greater made to promote been have strong efforts these countries, in some cases with success, the of intra-regional trade has been far from sufficient to meet their needs. Nor does such integration alone have the potential to do so, given that these nations are already poor and lack the means to create sufficient demand. gration among expansion Most of the area's economies are also heavily dependent on The public sector spending and investment to stimulate growth. even more so private sector is relatively weak and has been made recent in prevalent by the depressed economic conditions widely years. In some cases inappropriate development strategies have aggravated these problems. Political upheavals economic activity with several cases such turmoil in also In a negative impact. a prolonged contraction an incalculable economic and psycho- have had has produced Real standards of living logical impact on the people involved. have fallen dramatically from already low levels, thereby contributing to further social unrest. In El Salvador, for example, real GNP has declined by 20 percent over the past two years. During the 1970's Jamaica suffered seven consecutive years of negative growth and is only now beginning to recover. I need not dwell on the implications for the United States of the problems just described except to say that obviously it is not in our best interests to allow them to persist. Many of the potential beneficiaries are already trying to implement the necessary economic adjustment measures. Several countries have undertaken IMF supported stabilization programs and others are in the process of negotiations with the IMF. But these problems are difficult and the negative economic environment they have created has tended to be self-perpetuating' They will not be overcome unless they are addressed resolutely with the proper mix of internal economic policies and external assistance. Sound monetary, fiscal, and other economic policies which allow market mechanisms to operate as freely as possible are of paramount importance. We intend to use our program to help induce recipient countries to move in this direction. With the proper responses it can help create the necessary environment to make their economies stronger and more self-sufficient. The Pro osed Pro ram heart of the Administration's proposal is a free trade which will allow beneficiary countries improved access for their products to the U. S. market. It is evident that such trade opportunities are critical to the ability of developing countries to provide the necessary stimulus to their economies. One has only to look at the experiences of the newly industrialized countries of Latin America and Asia which have emerged over the past decade. In every case a the creation of an environment favorable to rapid export growth has been a key element of their success. We expect that tnis will be a major drawing card for new investment in the region to take advantage of these improved market possibilities and lower cost structures. The arrangement As an additional and reinforcing inducement for investment are proposing an important tax incentive for potential investors in the area. This is the investment tax credit of up to 10 percent of the cost of machinery and equipment used in qualifying This incentive will increase labor producbeneficiary countries. tivity and help to encourage the employment of labor. It will which will stimulate the economic promote productive investments development of the region. we of the program -- trade and tax incentives at encouraging medium and longer term But many countries require an immediate injection development. of financial resources to purchase imports to keep their economies is also proposing a $350 million going. Thus, the Administration this year to help countries meet their immediate aid supplemental needs. The bulk of these funds would go to a few countries These two elements are primarily aimed Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras and Jamaica -whose balance of payments problems are most pressing. These funds along with the other elements of our FY 82 aid program can both relieve the immediate financial problem and create an incentive for economic reforms required to assure sustained economic growth over the longer term. Impact on the U. S. Administration's proposal is not a one way street. It subtantial benefits the for United States. reap promises to Obviously it is in our own best security interests to help insure But there are that our neighbors are healthy and prosperous. for us as well. The gains access of improved potential other The Caribbean products to the U. S. market promises to benef it our Also, as the economies in the consumers through lower prices. region expand, new market opportunities will arise for U. ST producers. This program is not expected to exert much, if any, adverse effect on the U. S. economy, either in the short run or over the longer term. To give you an idea of the possible economic impact of the is useful to look at the current level program on the U. S , of dutiable imports from the Caribbean and how these might change In 1980 duties were collected on $800 million under our program. in imports from the Caribbean and Central America, excluding of tariffs, even if With the elimination textiles and apparel these import figures doubled or tripled over the next few years the impact in the U. S. would be negligible. ~ it Of course, this in possible impact because itself may not be a good measure of the expect the program to promote a since exportdynamic response and help to promote new industries Another point of comparison, ing now would be more attractive. Since its inception then, is our experience with the GSP program. in 1975 duty-free imports under this program have grown to slightly more than $8 billion last year. Of course, this includes imports from countries such as Brazil, Korea and Hong Kong with much greater production capacities than any of the potential beneficiary Even if the program were spectacularly countries. successful the additional exports which it. would generate almost certainly we would not even approach this figure. But this in no way diminishes the importance of the program. Given the size of the economies it would be helping, we expect it to be of substantial benefit would to them. Tax Incentives tax incentives may be divided into two parts: (a) the for 5 years of the investment tax credit aimed at promoting investment in the Caribbean Basin countries and. ; gb) the expansion of the property eligible for the investment tax credit and other incentives which are intended to restore the favored tax status of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The extension Basin investment tax credit is designed to in machinery and equipment in qualifying Basin countries' Generally, it is not extended for buildings or other structural components. This incentive was selected because it requires the investor to make a productive investment in order to qualify. The additional real capital which it generates will help to strengthen the production base of the region's economies, improve labor productivity, and stimulate new employment. At the end of five years, consideration may be The Caribbean encourage Caribbean investment of the credit on a bilateral basis through a tax treaty. A decision regarding extension of the tax credit, both to existing and new treaty partners, will not be made without full consultation with interested Congressional Committees. given to an extension prerequisite to qualify for the tax credit a country enter into a bilateral agreement with the United States for exchange of information for tax administration Treasury purposes. believes that such agreements are useful because they will help tax administrators in both countries. The U. S. will benefit in particular by access to information which is needed to properly administer the investment tax credit and other U. S. tax laws. Moreover, since some countries in the Caribbean are tax havens used to contravene U. S. tax laws, they should not benefit from these tax incentives unless they are willing to cooperate with the U. S. on tax matters. As a must The extension of the investment tax credit for Caribbean Basin property is not inconsistent with this Administration's strong policy against use of our tax treaties for conduit investments in the United States by residents from countries other than our treaty partner. Our opposition to such tax treaty abuse is sound international tax policy and consistent with the objectives of the Caribbean Basin Initiative. The purpose of the Initiative is served by encouraging increases in productive economic activity and self-sustaining growth in the Caribben Basin countries. This purpose is not served by creating or sustaining tax haven activity which is contrary to U. S. tax treaty policy, undermines the operation and administration of the Internal Revenue Code, and fosters an increased dependence by the tax haven country on the United States. A part of the U. S. longstanding special relationship with Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands has been favored tax treatment of taxpayers operating in these jurisdictions. The passage of the Economic Recovery Act of 1981 unintentionally reduced the At the same time, the effectiveness of this special treatment. extension of the investment tax credit to the Caribbean Basin will encourage investment there, perhaps to the disadvantage of In light of these Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands. facts the Administration proposes to extend to them additional tax incentives for investment. corporations operating in Puerto Rico and the U. S. currently benefit from special provisions in the Internal Revenue Code (principally sections 936 and 934) which effectively eliminate Federal tax on income from a trade or Puerto Rico and, to a certain extent, the U. S. business there. Virgin Islands, in turn, grant tax holidays for most manufacturing These corporations have not been eligible for the operations. investment tax credit and the benefits of accelerated cost in recovery deductions (ACRS) for property used predominately Puerto Rico or a possession. Most UPS. Virgin Islands legislation allows these corporations the tax credit. Since such corporations generally pay little or no tax in the U. S. , they are unable to use these tax benefits to reduce their tax liabilities in the UPS. The proposed legislation therefore also allows such domestic companies to pass the investment tax credit and a portion of the tax benefits of ACRS to their parent corporations in the UPS. This will restore the relative preference for investment in Puerto Rico and offer an important incentive to investment in the Virgin The proposed investment Islands. Finally, the legislation provides for some modifications in the disposition of excise taxes collected on rum. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands currently provide about 90 percent of the U. S. rum market and, at present, the entire amount of U. S. excise taxes collected on rum produced there is transferred to them. Since the Act proposes to reduce import duties on rum produced in other Caribbean Basin countries, the Puerto Rican and U. S. Virgin Islands' share of the U. S. rum market may decrease. This could adversely affect the rum industries in Puerto Rico and the UPS. Virgin Islands and reduce the amount of UPS. excise tax collections the island governments currently receive. To maintain this revenue source the legislation provides that excise taxes collected at the current rates on rum imports into the U. S. from ~an country will be transferred to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, provided that the amount transferred will not exceed the amount per proof gallon which would be paid over if the rum was produced in Puerto Rico or the U. S. Virgin Islands. Conclusion The Caribbean Basin Initiative is a bold and imaginative which promises to reap substantial benefits both for beneficiary countries and the United States. will embody a substantial increase in U. S. economic assistance in support of a concerted effort on the part of the Basin Countries to pursue appropriate economic policies and offer them the chance to take package It of new opportunities in the U. S. market as well as incentives for new investment. It will help to restore greater stability to the region and strengthen mutually beneficial ties with the U. S. I would urge the Congress to move ahead quickly with the legislative proposal so that we may begin to implement the program as soon as possible. advantage important Department of the Treasury EMBARGOED Nashlngton, D.C. e Telephone 566-214% FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY 9:30 A. M. , EST Expected at, Wednesday, ~ March 24, 1982 TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE DONALD SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE Mr. Chairman and Members of the T. REGAN Committee, It is a pleasure to be with you today to discuss the economic outlook and the Budget. I hope this occasion will be part of an on-going dialogue between the Committee and the Administration over the need to restore a stable fiscal climate to promote long-term noninflationary growth in the American economy. As you know, the economy continues in the grip of the second recession in two years. This latest downturn began in July 1981, hard on the heels of the sharp recession of 1980, from which the economy had never really recovered. are clear: years of excessive rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising tax rates, and rising Federal spending as a share of GNP. With the help of this Committee, we hope to continue the fight to bring Federal spending and deficits under control. With the help of the Federal Reserve, we hope to bring inflation and interest rates down. These steps will lead to an early end to the current downturn. In spite of the continued slide in the first quarter of 1982, there are some hopeful signs. Excess inventories are being drawn down at a rapid rate. This is typical of the last stages of a recession. Retail sales are rising. Housing starts are up slightly. Durable goods orders have leveled off. And, very important for the financial well-being of all Americans, whether of working age or retirees, inflation continues to fall. we have in place a sound long-run tax More importantly, system for the 1980's. It will not only help bring an early end to the current recession, but will promote rapid growth of income, savings, investment and employment for years to come. That tax system, with a healthy economy, will generate The causes of the two downturns money growth, as much revenue to spend. R-698 as government should reasonably be allowed However, the short-run revenue picture has been heavily the recession and the drop in by two factors: one bitter pill and one piece of candy which affected inflation — together have significantly decreased revenue to the point of causing large deficits. The recession is temporary, and the decline in inflation is most welcome. Nonetheless, nominal GNP is estimated to be 4 percent lower than was forecast last March, and the 1982 unemployment These rate over one and one-half percentage points higher' changes in economic assumptions have added roughly $60 billion to the deficit projections for FY-1983 compared to our estimate last year. Higher interest rates and a higher level of national debt by FY-1983 have added $30 billion more. We, therefore, had to face some tough decisions about how to cover the costs of some very important government programshow to make up the difference between the $666. 1 billion in revenues and the $757. 6 billion in outlays -- until the growing economy triggered by our reformed tax system brings growing revenues into line with restrained outlays. tax Some have urged us to revoke the incentive-creating cuts already in place. The result would have been lower real It would have involved growth for many years into the future. a self-defeating major change in a permanent tax program. to Instead, we shall propose certainhandle a temporary problem. worthwhile tax reforms, upgrade our tax collection program, renew our efforts at controlling spending, and borrow to cover the remaining deficit. Deficits are not good. They rob the private sector of financial and real resources needed for growth, and divert those resources into government consumption. So do taxes. The root of the problem is the Federal spending which appropriates those real resources and then must find the means to pay for them in one way or another. The budget deficit can and must be narrowed from the spending side. For too long, spending has been rising faster than the economy has grown. The economy can no longer support Some progress was made last year in reducing the the burden. runaway rate of growth in Federal non-defense spending. Further efforts will be required this year and into the future. Insofar as spending is not reduced, i.t is preferable to close the remaining transitional recession deficits of the sort now being experienced by borrowing rather than by taxing. The funds are pulled from the private sector in either case, but taxes impose a larger cost in terms of reduced incentives for real growth. Borrowing takes a portion of current national savings out of current national income (which equals current net output) to enable the government to gain command over a portion of current Taxing also enables the government to have at its output. Like borrowing, taxation disposal a portion of current output. reduces the supply of savings for investors to borrow by a substantial amount. However, there is a difference. In recent years, tax increases have generally taken the form of allowing inflation to push taxpayers into higher brackets, or allowing inflation The former to erode the value of depreciation allowances. reduces the value of incremental present or future wages and interest income; the latter reduces the rate of return on The effect is to reduce the supply of plant and equipment. labor, savings, plant and equipment, cutting down on future output. Thus, taxation often produces disincentives which adversely affect future output, as well as directing a portion of current output to the government. Federal borrowing creates debt that must be serviced, and this implies the future payment of taxes, but it need not require an increase in marginal tax rates, as long as economic Thus, borrowing should growth produces an enlarged tax basehave less adverse impact on future output than taxation. Therefore, in deciding how to cover the transitional deficits associated with the current recession, we feel it is better to borrow, while leaving the tax incentives in place for long-run growth, rather than to undo the structural tax reforms of the ERTA, which would choke off future expansion. to strive to reduce the deficit by real growth. The budget we are proposing take major steps toward closing that deficit In the interim, it can be over the next several years. fashion. The first three charts handled in a nondisruptive help to put the deficit into perspective. The projected deficits, though some of them are at record dollar levels, are not unusual following a recession when measured as a percent of GNP. On- and off-budget deficits were 3.6 and 4. 5 percent of GNP in Fiscal Years 1975 and 1976, Deficits are projected due largely to the 1974-1975 recession. GNP in Fiscal Years 1982 of and 3. 1 percent to be 3.8 percent the current recession. a result of as and 1983, largely There has been considerable concern that our projected deficits will put extr~me pressure on credit markets and thus However, we believe there will be drive up interest rates' We must continue curtailing spending and promoting private sector saving to finance these deficits without excessive pressure on the credit markets or inflationazy money creation by the Federal Reserve. ample In the past, deficits were often accompanied by falling interest rates. It should be particularly true this time, tax program in with falling inflation and a savings-oriented place. The deficits will be manageable because of the growth of private sector saving. Pzivate saving resulting from normal year-over-year and the Economic Recovery Tax Act will be several times greater than the total borrowing requirement, of the Federal Government in 1983 and 1984 and thereafter. growth net additions to total private saving are larger rise in the deficit. "They will produce "crowding in" rather than "crowding out. This extra shot in the arm of capital markets will put downward. pressure on interest rates. Even after financing the Federal deficit, there will be billions of additional dollars each year for private The than the investment. Normal year-to-year increases in saving exceed $40 billion each year. This will be supplemented by the additional personal savings and additional business retained earning induced by the tax cuts. Compared to 1981, private saving will be more than $60 billion higher in 1982, more than $170 billion higher in 1983, and more than $260 billion higher in 1984. Private saving was $480 billion in 1981. It is projected to rise to more than $740 billion in 1984. It has been lack of growth, more than anything else, that has been responsible for the current and projected deficit. As a rough rule of thumb, each time growth falls off by enough to produce a 1 percent increase in unemployment, the budget deficit widens by more than $25 billion. In fact, if we had grown fast enough over the past four years to get unemployment down below 6 percent, the current deficit would be roughly $75 billion lower. Growth is the only way to balance the budget while promoting rising real income and employment. I would like to point out, very firmly, that any changes in the economic recovery program which reduce real growth will tend to worsen the budget picture. Changes which reduce individual or business saving by as much as or more than the deficit will only worsen the situation in the credit markets. The budget is not merely an accounting document. One cannot simply take a billion dollars out of column A and put it in column B. There are behavior changes and economic repercussions from tax and spending shifts which affect saving, investment, labor supply, income and revenue. Very often, changes which may look good on paper will buy little or no progress toward solving a budget problem, especially compared to the economic cost to the whole nation of the policy shift. the These facts should be kept clearly in deficits in this budget. Taxation, S ending and mind as we look at the Budget The tax code we have in place, plus the tax proposals contained in the Administration's budget regarding obsolete provisions and improved tax compliance measures, will generate as much revenue over the long term as the government should reasonably be allowed to spend. We project long-term receipts of between 19 and 19-1/2 percent of GNP between 1983 and 1985 These percentages would rise slowly thereunder our proposals. after with real economic growth and scheduled payroll tax increases. This compares with 18.7 percent from 1964 through 1974 and 19.0 percent from 1975 through 1979. Receipts were 20 ' 1 and 21.0 percent of GNP in 1980 and 1981, respectively, 20. 3 percent in 1982. Receipts, and will be approximately therefore, will be in line with, or even higher than historical levels. the other hand, spending, on- and off-budget, is already It was 23. 0 and 23. 7 too high and threatening to go higher. and will exceed and respectively, in 1980 1981, percent of GNP to 19. This compares 8 percent from in 1982. 24 percent of GNP 1964 through 1974 and 22. 1 from 1975 through 1979 ' We have recommended a decline to just over 21 percent of GNP by 1985, thereafter. declines and further On is a general perception that spending and taxes slashed. In fact, all we have done so far is 'to reduce the rate of growth of spending, and we have just begun to see a modest tax reduction. The personal tax rate reductions in the ERTA are not substantially larger between 1981 and 1984 than the continuing bracket creep and the payroll tax increases of 1981 and 1982. In fact, there was a net. personal tax increase of roughly $15 billion in 1981. In 1982, taxpayers will barely break even. Not until 1983 and 1984 will there be real tax cuts for most families, totalling $12 to $15 billion each year. Taxes will rise again in 1985 due to a scheduled payroll There have been tax increase. the other hand, even under our proposed spending spending will remain well above long-term averages for several years to come. If major budget changes are to be made, they should be in spending levels, not taxes. On restraint, of a Stable Tax Polic could It is unlikely in the extreme that tax increases First, they would weaken succeed in balancing the budget. the economy, and be partially offset by slower growth. In spite of Second, they would encourage higher spending. the fact that the tax receipts of the Federal Government rose 'nearly $250 billion from FY-1977 to FY-1981, the government ran deficits of nearly $200 billion. the Administration hopes to balance the Consequently, Importance budget by restraining spending and encouraging a stable incentive-creating tax program. growth through Business Taxes Stability in tax policy is essential f' or private sector planning and economic recovery. Consider the impact of sudden changes in the tax law on the cost of plant and equipment and the related investment decisions. Millions of firms planning billions of dollars of investment decisions must be in a situation of great uncertainty with respect to leasing, ACRS and other provisions. There is no way for a firm to determine whether an investment is practical or not until the tax picture is clarified. The decisions of the Congress regarding ACRS and related provisions have the power to unleash a flood of investment or to choke off tens of billions of dollars of spending on modernization and expansion of plant and equipmentUntil the political decisions are made, the economic decisions, and the economic recovery, are on hold. The right decisions will start the economy climbing. The wrong ones will set it tumbling. Taxes on Saving Consider the impact on personal saving of a decision to the third year of the tax cut and indexing. Under current law, over the life of a 10-year bond purchased in 1983, a taxpayer who will be in the 33 percent bracket following the third year of the tax cut would pay roughly one-third of his interest to the government. But without the third year and indexing, that tax rate would start at 39 percent and rise within a decade to 44 percent and 49 percent, as the taxpayer's income rises through the tax brackets with inflationThe average of these tax rates would probably be nearly 44 percent compared to roughly 33 percent under current law. suspend At a 10 percent nominal interest rate and 5 percent or percent inflation, this rise in the tax rate would be enough to cut a 2 percent real after-tax interest rate in half, or a 1 percent real after-tax interest rate to zero. Historically, such swings in the real after-tax interest rate have shifted the personal savings rate by one or even two percentage points. 6 This would be enough to remove $25 to 850 billion dollars per year from the credit markets over the next decade, with obvious adverse consequences for interest rates, investment, and real growth. Furthermore, the potential were repealed saver would know as soon as what the impact would be on He would react at once, before these provisions the rate of return to saving. the bond were purchased, not 5 or 10 years later after having committed money in good faith. Taxes on Labor There are those who would preserve the business portions of the ERTA, and cancel most of the remaining individual tax Such a move would be extremely counterrate reductions. I am frankly productive to business as well as to individuals. amazed at the lack of thought behind such proposals. In my years at Merrill Lynch, I came to appreciate the importance of the individual in his or her role as saver, I am surprised that others in investor and entrepreneur. commerce or industry do not appreciate the importance of the individual in the roles of employee and customer. Those who think of business only in terms of large corpoproprietorships rations forget the millions of partnerships, are taxed at the whose profits S corporations and sub-chapter decisions of rates. The tax individual at individual level influenced are heavily -entrepreneurs owner-investorsand these reforms tax estate and and gift reductions by the personal rate recently enacted. and consumers, consider the effect of As for employees of the tax cut and indexing on the third year the suspending standard of living of the American the and cost of labor f amily. Total net output of goods and services in the economy results from the combination of labor and capital. The value added by these two factors of production is reflected in the wages, salaries, rents, royalties, Value added equals they receive. total net output. It away may come as a surprise the larger of the two interest and dividends total national income and to some, but labor is far and Value added by labor is factors. two-thirds and three-quarters of the total in most Labor inputs outweigh years for most products and industries. capital inputs two or three to one. It is time to remember that taxes on labor and the resulting higher labor costs are extremely damaging to American business. between Over the last 15 years, inflation, bracket creep and payroll tax hikes have sharply increased the pre-tax cost to the firm of giving a worker a one dollar after-tax wage increaseA median income worker now faces 40 percent to 44 percent tax rates on added income- This is the sum of social security and Federal marginal income tax rates, plus state and local taxes at the margin. It is up sharply from the late 1960's, when the marginal rates would have been roughly 26 percent to 30 percent. it now costs a firm more than $1.70 to Consequently, compensate a worker for a $1.00 increase in the cost of living. This is up from $1.40 in the late 1960's. Without indexing, will rise to $2. 00 by the late 1980's, and to $2. 50 or higher in the 1990's. Any wage increase, whether merely COLA's or a real wage hike, would send taxes rising and tend to push . labor costs up faster than the prices the firm receives f' or it its products. Profits, employment, or real wages would tend to fall continually over time in the absence of extraordinary productivity increases. The competitive position of U-S. labor in the world economy would suffer. The likely consequence of such a tax situation will be falling after-tax wage. Labor will absorb a substantial portion of the tax burden. The cost of eliminating the third year of the tax cut, and indexing to a wage earner making $20, 000 in 1982 and receiving a cost-of-living increase thereafter would be substantial: $80 in 1983, $203 in 1984, $289 in 1985, and $369 in 1986. . This is only the direct cost. a economy, reduced saving, investment and growth, lower productivity and reduced demand for American labor would lower the market wage itself, reducing the family' s real earnings by two or three times the direct cost of the higher taxes. American workers and savers are the primary customers of American business. There is no way such an impact on the real income of its customers would be good for The weaker business. ortance of a Stable Monetary Policy The President's original economic program included the that money growth be gradually reduced to a nonrecommendation inflationary pace. During the past year, the Federal Reserve made significant progress toward that goal. Im Fourth quarter to fourth quarter, M1B grew by 5 percent in 1981. December to December, the rate was 6 ' 4 percent due to rapid money growth at year's end. Compared to the inflationary rates of monetary expansion in the past -- 7. 3 percent in 1980 and an annual average of 8-0 percent in the preceding three years -- this is a substantial deceleration in money The Federal Reserve's tentative target ranges for growth. 1982, 2-1/2 to 5-1/2 percent for Ml, represent continued money growth and the Adminisprogress toward noninflationary tration fully supports that general policy. Administration's original recommendation was that the growth gradually be cut in half by 1984 from the average 7.8 percent rate of the prior four years; this is the assumption that we built into our economic projections. The deceleration that has actually occurred was initially much almost three-fourths of the planned reduction more rapid until end-of-year increases in money in the first year growth rates raised the level of M1B above the lower end of last year's target range. Currently, the level of Ml is $4 billion above the target range for 1982. The rate of money — — This more rapid deceleration of money growth has economic consequences -- some good, some bad. It is leading to a faster reduction in inflation, but it also means reductions in real output, employment, and real .income. Lower inflation and lower real output mean lower GNP and lower Federal tax revenues. Lower inflation also means lower Federal outlays on indexed In the interim, programs, but only with a considerable time lag' is clear from It amply history, both here the deficit widens. do not produce not monetized, and abroad, that deficits, if inflation the lower rate of is a partial inflation. Indeed, deficit. the current cause of the short-run costs and the long-run benefits the Administration. . remains committed to its goal of slow and steady money growth over the long run. Given that goal, we supported money growth in the middle of the Federal Reserve's M1B target range in 1981, and we support money growth in the upper third of the Federal Reserve's tentative Ml target range for 1982. There are those who are urging the Federal Reserve to abandon its goal of a steady and moderate growth rate of the They- believe that faster money growth would money supply. depress interest rates. History does not support that view, as the attached charts show. Recognizing of controlling inflation, For many Years, it has been apparent that inflation is the main factor determining the level of interest rates. Excessively rapid moneY growth in the past has brought about 10 the current high levels of interest rates. As inflation has risen or fallen in the past, interest rates haved moved in step. last year or two, however, interest rates have risen relative to the inflation rate. This may be due, in part, to the unusual volatility of money growth rates since In the 1980. In the last two months of 1980, Ml fell at an annual rate of 1.4 percent per year, after a sharp rise in the previous five months. All of the growth in Ml in 1981 occurred in the first four months of the year, when it grew at a 14. 2 percent annual rate, and the last two months of the year, when Ml In the interim, Ml oscilgrowth was at a 11.6 percent rate. months from April to the six week. week In lated from to October, the net change was a decrease of 0. 2 percent, annual rate. Early 1982 saw a very rapid increase in the money supply through January, followed by a levelling off in February as the Fed has tried to bring Ml back inside its target range. The rapid growth or money from November through January was accompanied by rising interest rates, reversing the dramatic decline in interest rates that had been under way since September. The evidence long-run lenders two years is very clear: growth undermines the credibility of monetary controls, adds to uncertainty and and thereby helps keep interest rates high as Volatile risk, of the past money seek to protect their principal. Faster growth of Ml and the monetary base is associated with rising interest rates. Slower growth of Ml and the monetary base is associated with falling interest rates. The Administration strongly supports the Federal Reserve's announced goal of a steady and moderate rate of growth of the money supply, not because we seek to drive interest rates up, but because it is the only known way to bring inflation and interest rates down on a permanent basis. It is easy to illustrate why the financial markets watch supply so closely, and why variability of inflation and interest rates creates turmoil and uncertainty in the bond markets. Old securities must fall in price to remain competitive with new issues as interest rates rise. Conversely, bond prices rise when interest rates fall. Consider the history of the Treasury's 6-3/4 percent 20-year bond issued on October 1, 1973, priced at $99. 50 per $100 of face value the money to yield 6. 79 percent. Its value over time has fluctuated substantially with market interest rates: Price 9/30/74 9/30/75 9/30/76 9/30/77 9/30/78 9/30/79 9/30/80 9/30/81 latest As interest rates Yield to Maturity 84-63 8.41 92 ' 19 95 ' 44 7 ' 59 7 ' 25 8 ' 44 9 ' 38 85. 69 8 ' 32 86. 06 80 ' 19 69-69 11 ' 37 14 ' 96 55. 75 62. 50 and bond 13.38 prices have become increasingly in recent years, the risk involved in buying bonds This has resulted in greater reluctance to buy has increased. the bonds on part of those who cannot afford a risky porfolio, of a risk or volatility premium which has the emergence and driven interest rates higher than normal relative to inflation in recent years. This is why stability in the rate of money growth and interest rates is critical to the success of our unstable program. APPENDIX Full One way Deficit the impact of the back-to-back Employment to illustrate recessions of 1980 and 1981-1982 on the budget deficit is to examine the high employment budget deficit. This concept has been used in the past to measure the "stimulus" of budget policy, on the theory that deficits increase total spending and pump up "demand". We reject the notion that deficits per se are inherently stimulative. They must be financed by borrowing in the absence of inflationary monetary creation. Nonetheless, the one useful insight the high employment budget does provide is a measure of the fundamental relationship between the current policy level of spending and the current tax code's capacity to generate revenue with the distorting effects of the recession removed. I am happy to comply with the Chairman' s request to present the high employment figures. The high employment budget estimates the budget aggregates that would result if the economy were continuously operating at a high level of employment under the tax and spending proposals contained in the FY-1983 Budget documents. The rate at high employment is traditionally estimated for this purpose to be about 5. 0 percent. (However, many observers feel the real economy has a long-term basic unemployment rate somewhat higher. ) Potential real GNP is assumed to grow 3. 2 percent ahnually. (We believe this potential growth rate can be increased by proper policies, but have conformed to convention to provide estimates consistent with those of earlier years. ) unemployment The CEA has estimated the high employment deficit through FY-1985 on a unified budget basis. (The high employment deficit can be computed on a national income accounts (NIA) basis or on a unified budget basis. The major differences are the inclusion of offsetting receipts from oil and mineral leases and asset sales the netting out of Federal retirement receipts and in the unified budget. ) The figures are available FY-1985- and outlays through FY Receipts Outlays Deficit (-) 81 FY 82 FY 83 FY 84 FY 85 636 644 691 702 739 723 768 793 830 860 -8 -ll -16 -25 -30 is clear from the tables that the major portion of the projected deficits of nearly $100 billion in FY-1982 and FY-].983 is due to the fact that the economy is operating at less than The phased tax reductions result in small fu]1 employment. in the high employment deficit, and, increments year-to-year Zt even in "demand" terms, cannot, be regarded as large or excessively stimulative. The bulk of the deficit increase, from $11 to $25 billion, is completed by FY 1984. By FY-1985, high employment receipts grow 8.1 percent over FY-1984, nearly matching the gro~h of outlays at 8.4 percent. Savin s Flows and How They Fit into the Scenario The f'ollowing outlines some of the concepts underlying the gross and net private savings figures commonly cited and provides background on the savings numbers consistent with the economic scenario underlying the budget. By whatever savings measure one prefers, projected deficits as a share of savings are less than in the 1974-1975 recession and the subsequent recovery, and are I am happy to submit these comments at the Chairman's declining. request. Concepts o Zn the National and product Zncome rivate saving is the sum of: Accounts (NZpA), gross -- the difference between after-tax of the household sector and outlays of that sector for consumer goods and services, interest Personal personal saving payments, etc. z. ncome Corporate saving, consisting of' depreciation allowances after-tax profits. (This is equivaplus undistributed lent to the cash flow available to corporations, both to maintain and add to productive assets. Inventory profits are excluded. ) Depreciation allowances of the noncorporate sector including unincorporated business enterprises plus The on owner-occupied homes. ~im uted depreciation latter, roughly $40 billion or about one-twelfth of gross private saving, is the only item in the saving figures which does not represent true cash flow. far the larger part of total includes the surplus of state and local governments (largely the surplus of the pension funds for their employees, as surpluses on operating account have been fairly narrow) The and the surplus or deficit of the Federal Government. latter is on a NIPA basis. In the next couple of years, the NZPA deficit will be wider than the more widely cited unified budget deficit (the difference arising from sales of mineral rights and other transactions that are not reflected in the NIPA but affect the unified budget). attached presents historical data on gross savings flows as percentages of GNP. Gross private saving forms by 3/23/82 private saving in the accounts is comprised of per profits of corporate sonal saving and the undistributed unincorporated businesses business. (Profit-type income of allowances are gets into personal saving. ) Depreciation (The net saving figures are not included in net saving. close to, but do not quite represent available cash for net investment, as undistributed profits and returns to unincorporated enterprises are after allowances have been of inventories and fixed capital made for full replacement They exclude inventory used in the production process. profits, and depreciation is on a so-called economic e. , replacement rather than rather than book-basis, historical cost. ) Savings or dissavings of government can be added to net private saving to get total net saving. Net saving figures are commonly compared with net national product (NNP, or GNP less depreciation allowances). Thus, depreciation is excluded from both numerator and denominator. Table 2 attached presents net savings flows as percentages of NNP. Net i. 0 Domestic augmented savings flows, either gross or net, may be by inflows from abroad, which are likely to be attracted 0 by the new tax climate. In an accounting sense, total gross saving (including any dissaving by the Federal Government) must match total gross investment the net additions to the stock of — plant, equipment, inventories, and residential structures plus an amount sufficient to replace existing assets that have worn out or become obsolete. In any year, investment to replace existing assets far exceeds net additions to the stock of productive assets. Similarly, total net saving must equal net investment. Gross Savings Flows in the Scenario Savings flows consistent with the economic scenario underlying the 1983 Budget were worked up by the CEA. They were, of course, forced to fit within the constraint of the total uses of savings overall investment response to the rate of return changes in the ERTA plus Federal, state and local deficits and foreign flows. The breakdown between corporate and personal savings within the totals can be affected by dividend payout assumptions, capital intensity assumptions across corporate and non-corporate businesses, etc. In keeping within the totals, personal savings rates appear to have come out a bit low by historical standards. -- yield substantial private savings flows, they do not appear to be out of line with the sum of normal year-to-year growth, the business share of ERTA and historical responses by individuals to tax reductions. The although estimates Historically, gross private saving has averaged about 16-1/2 percent of GNP. The peak ratio in the postwar period was 18.2 percent in the recession year of 1975. The next highest ratio was 17.5 percent in 1967. (See left-hand column of table 1 attached. ) 0 Gross Private Saving as a Percent of GVI. P Budget scenario 16.3 1956-65 1966-75 1976-80 1981 16 ' 6 16 ' 7 16 ' 4 17.2 projected 1982 1983 1984 18 ' 5 19 ' 1 The impact of ERTA on gross private saving can roughly be estimated by calculating saving on the assumption that the historic 16-1/2 percent share of GViP had been maintained and comparing those numbers with the higher The implicasaving flows projected in the new scenario. tion of these calculations is that gross private saving in the new scenario in 1985 is $101 billion more than if old saving patterns prevail. o Gross Private Level Calendar Year Level Saving Dif ference Yearly — — 1981 1982 1983 1984 actual project. ed Tax at 16.5% from Cut Increase of GNp Budget ERTA Budcuet (2) (3) (4) = (1)-(3) (5) (1) . ----(---billions of dollars ---- ---— ) in 480 542 651 742 62 109 91 521 581 641 21 70 101 58 115 151 Added Savings as o f ERTA (6)=(4) (5) (percent) 36 61 67 0 Com 0 In terms of total saving flows, including government surplus, note that increased government deficits (dissaving) resulting from a tax cut have no effect on total saving if those tax cuts flow directly into increased private saving, as the funds from ACRS, which are recorded as retained earnings, might be expected to de Of course, private saving may increase by more or less than any tax cut, depending on responses of households and businesses to changes in after-tax real rates of return on prospective investments. In the mid-1960's, personal savings increases, as result of above average income growth, exceeded a partly 70 percent of the marginal tax rate reductions for three years, rising to exceed the tax reductions in the fourth The personal savings rates in the year and thereafter. scenario assume a savings increase averaging roughly 45 percent of the personal tax cuts from 1982 to 1984. osition of Gross Private Savin The in the Bud et Scenario rise in business saving reflects: A recovery of the profit share (before allowance for ACRS) and retention of a large portion of those increased profits, rather than their distribution in dividends. 2~ other tax changes which reduce profits taxes by about $10 billion in CY-1982, $19 billion in CY-1983, and $27 billion in CY-1984 ' 3. rising stoc3c of capital. path of the personal saving rate is as follows: The ACRS and The depreciation thrown off by a Personal Saving Rate (%) Budget scenario 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 5. 6 5'3 6. 7 projected 7'0 6' 1 I~ II The dip in 1984 was conditioned by overall constraints imposed on the forecast, and appears to be an understate- ment. Personal saving available to households is related to prospective real after-tax rates of return; these should be vastly improved from returns available during the 1970's, and higher in 1984 than in 1983. savings rates averaged 7. 6 percent from 1965 to 1975 ' Net Private Savin s in the Scenario Net saving figures indicate resources available to increase the stock of productive capital after allowance has been made for its maintenance. indicated by the figures in the left-hand columns of table 2, ratios of total and net private saving to net national product (NNP) were severely eroded in the late 1970's. In 1981, net private saving was 6. 1 percent of with 8-3/4 percent during the late 1960's. NNP compared The scenario shows that late 1960's ratio being restored, As though not surpassed. Net private saving as percent of NNP 1956-65 1966-75 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 pro j ected 1983 1984 o 8. 1 8' 6 7. 6 8.9 7'7 7'3 6'9 6'7 6'2 Federal deficit as percent of net private savings plus S&L surplus 2'8 -14-5 -10 ' 9 -53.8 -39-0 -30 ' 0 -17 ' 9 8' 6 -35 ' 0 6. 1 -31 ' 8 7'0 F 7 8'8 -45 ' 0 -32 ' 0 -28 ' 0 column of table 2 and the tabulation on the prior page show the ratio of the NIPA Federal deficit to the total net private savings plus supluses (if any) of The right-hand That ratio hit a peak of 54 state and local governments. As indicated on the prior page, that 1975. percent in never approaches the 1975 scenario for 1982 the ratio in ratios for 1983 and 1984 stay below respective figure, and and 1977. 1976 for figures GROSS SAVING AND INVESTMENT LEVELS 1979 Gross Private Personal Business Saving 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 400. 0 434. 1 478. 7 542. 0 650. 7 741.8 86. 2 101.4 106.6 150.8 171.7 163.4 313.9 332. 7 372. 1 391.3 479. 0 578. 4 PERCENTS OF GNP Gross Private Personal Business Saving 16-6 13-0 16.5 12.7 16.4 17.2 18.5 19 ' 1 3~6 4. 8 12.4 4. 9 13.6 4. 2 14.9 12-7 G«OSS 54'NI«GS PFNCP. NT EF CNP ~ esei«i«ease««s ~ 'si«a«««ea««s ~ ess«ii«es«i«ii«s ~ sa«sess%esse%sea«ee««ee'««eee«asses««s«es«««s«aeee«ae«s«s««ees«sa« GPOSS CON PONA IV. GPOSS PVTa NONC01P% I'P I VI TP. NFTAINFO NNFSTIC CAP%CONS ~ CAP% CoNS% Tof AL STATP. 4 NFT FOPF ICN SAVING PthSONAL CONPOAATK flhNINGS ALLONANCF. ALLINAHCF. Gov1 e F FOP. hit LOCAL INVFSIMFNT INVFStllFNT 1417 Ioib I oi 0 1450 '11%715 15% 01) 15 0$0 'Ii% 591 1951 1. 4%062 8%100 2% 021 ~ % 011 3 818 le 252 2% 806 5% 370 3% 761 2% 520 2% 293 2% 356 l60 ~ % 856 6, 455 QQI d. 967 ~e 15% 371 145? 145 ) 2%217 242 I 15%116 15% idT 15 829 5 oio ~ %6?4 4%792 ded30 7 ?11 5 ~ 1)0 1%97) 2% 285 )s 283 ?%520 1455 1056 16.OQO ls I ll I 451 I6 138 5%020 7%777 7%716 So?11 ~ 3)2 1%13) 5 211 3 881 ~ e 386 T%766 2% Il?7 2% 3$I 1%719 2% 375 8% 339 3% 221 3% ~ 19 II ~ 712 1458 Id, T39 14&0 Id 360 15 340 14& I 15% 815 14&2 16%010 196) 19&1 'IS%566 'Ibad70 10&5 19&6 5 050 Iat?2 I 2% 3? 1%$27 3%669 1%635 bei13 11%)16 'l1%01 ~ 1% 871 9% 171 3.712 1,3)6 ~ 75d IQ&7 17, 197 5%'512 9%052 8 To5 3% 72O 14&8 14&4 tda?51 ~ 802 ~ a 300 IQTO I97I 1472 1413 1«TI I«75 147& 1417 1418 1419 IQSO I«St I'051«'I 955 1 old»19&O 15%214 15 918 16%7)~ 15 458 11% 166 . , 5 610 5e d?$ 8%669 ba? I ~ 7%591 4.038 231 3, 200 ?.ii) I ~ 188 Tet"12 5 076 7%788 6%719 8% 300 8%512 2% 115 2% 576 3%8&) 3%51'I 16,525 9% 101 9% 009 2%725 2% d85 )%570 b%855 16%185 1&%)11 )a 857 8% 3&6 2 111 I ~ 687 'I 641 I& ~ )5) 18~ 21'1 11~ I 36 lb. 8ob 'Id% 183 15%Tot 16%101 ~ %136 5 45) 5% 435 6 ~ OU& 1.SO? 3% &lb ~ 5, 150 728 7% 151 i, 707 Id%214 ~ % 33'7 1%T4) 8% idb I odd» I 970 16% 342 5%001 8% 100 1471»1475 1916 1980 16 841 16, 687 5% 608 3% 927 T%711 8%7SI 1961»1965 I ' 2% l)5 0 436 I ~ 878 ?%lib 2%1)8 2% 31$ 3 110 3a011 I ~ 988 2% 335 )% 100 6 178 3%'5)S 3% 255 ~ % 603 3% 832 «I ~ 302 1% 168 3%731 2%74i 711 I ~ 8)~ l, i90 3% 1% 611 3%800 O'I ~ 65T 3% 784 41& 840 1% 958 3 456 ~ s 856 3% SILO 5 218 5%153 5a 606 5% 387 S%385 5% 311 5% lb 087 it. ops 0% 186 «0, 3?I 3% 710 i?e 808 0% 611 1%819 485 3% 206 Wa 110 3% 250 5% 011 «I ~ 181 3%238 Sa 119 3% 325 3% 121 3% 12'4 Wa)56 «0%?j) io o 500 «0%7il 0%012 W%070 «0%752 0%013 0% 082 0% 077 «0%513 0%077 0%1S6 oot 6 000 Ii% 231 5%100 I. Wa 067 1%012 0 140 6%1?2 6 345 6% 380 3% S&1 6% 32 ~ 3% 1% 070 -2%1?5 «3%040 3 811 W%456 93) Wool 0 0% 141 Wa ~ 1$ I ~ 355 Wad II «2%330 «2%105 il ~ 257 d 670 ~ 222 Ia 233 6%T65 Ws 850 ~ esses ~ ««ei ~ «s« ~ F)VK Thdh AVE hlOF. S )% 820 Weldt 3% 903 So019 5% 083 )%171 W%216 Ws 328 3%288 W% 529 5%723 )%572 «1 ~ 189 )a 979 W%7&1 Wa 315 0% 007 Wa 37T W%58T «I ~ 832 «I ~ 461 0% 171 0% 0% 461 35) ls Id3 I ~ 311 I ~ '105 'I ~ 105 219 ~ ss«i« 1% W% 116 We?2 3 6% 200 0%140 oTo 0%786 0%230 We 330 I ~ 114 1% 100 51) «I ~ 25) Ms 014 »I ~ I lb 3% 664 7% 300 7%200 'II% 010 «I ~ Od5 «I ~ 805 5%81) d, 6oo d. ooo 0% 6oo 0, 728 0%012 Ws 122 Wa SOI I ~ 172 15.281 1% 300 1% 300 5% 600 6% 300 0% 159 0% 155 0% 540 16% llb 'lie 779 'I ~ 075 11%123 11,7oo 15% 601 15,72$ 0%5'57 W, do) I ~ 135 11 Si1 11%853 I ~ 344 ~0%68) I ~ 053 0% 843 je 100 5%900 1%000 5 b00 7%100 11% '101 0, 323 «I 618 II, 767 15% 856 0 149 «0, 2)d W%132 Oaolo 3, 12$ 6% 113 «0% 207 «0% 306 W% 523 «0% 231 «0% 281 3, 743 «2% 281 Wa)1$ 0% 339 Weoot 0% 064 3%173 ~ a716 Se ltd 0%062 0% I I I 0%655 1%083 3%823 I, o&6 0%076 6.1)1 Wa 303 I ~ 130 3%275 5% 527 5% 500 5% 35) «0%318 0%51 ~ 835 5.iSo 0% 030 'I %231 5%021 ~ %9?7 I I ~ 029 «I ~ 615 I ~ I oi 0%?08 «Oabll We&10 0%120 I ~0 615 0%266 O. ISO 936 3%713 3%518 3%151 3% 366 I 0%136 0% 051 «0% 281 «0%I? I W%131 Wa 01 ~ 3% 912 3% 3% 48 i 0%930 5%713 )%205 «I ~ 021 3%211 I ~ 468 «1%073 PfhSONAL SAVING PATS 0% lot 0% 060 0% 323 W, I20 0.2ol 1.11o 0% 248 Wa 723 Wa d34 W%010 0% 225 0%079 ~ «sss ~ 0%019 0%051 0%152 0%785 0% 055 Oo 4i3 0%?TII Ie 147 «0% 182 0% 232 'l3% I ~ 385 15.ool I ~, T58 % 11%069 11% 360 11%113 'II% 202 I ~, 1)) '15%583 15,4) I 11 456 1)%744 11% 321 15 709 16% 3SI 6 700 7%100 1%000 8 100 1% 100 6% 100 8% 000 8% IOO 6% 500 8% &00 8% 500 8.&oo 6% 400 5%600 Sa 200 ld. 501 5% 200 15% 217 TQT 5% 300 Ii. lla T31 11%813 11 289 11%~ 33 11%401 15%6)b 5% 600 ~ «se«' 6% 860 d TIO ds 300 Ts 320 5%0&0 5% 700 Table tEtCKNT lF ttZVAIK tLUS SSL (f tEtCKNT NET NATZONAL ttOOVCT $$$$$$$$$$ ~ $$$$$$$$$$ ~ $$00$$$ ~ ee ~ $$ ~ $ ~ eoe ~ $$$$$ ~ $$$ ~ $$$$$$$ STATE 6 LCCAL tKDKt. AL ttZVATE tbtSONAL CObtOtATE TOTAL t9i7 2a i3 ia 55 3o 14 11$29 12 36 io 61 Se 46 10e 32 7$28 7$28 9$79 4ebi 5$60 7$19 1954 SoiS 1955 be 96 t956 1957 9o71 be 33 7$S9 4 10 4$36 5$04 8$50 5 57 5$ 81 tMb 19i 9 1950 1951 1952 1953 bo 83 2a T5 4$03 5$29 5 i5 ToST 5$5'1 2$50 2 37 2$ 1S 2 51 4$11 1958 io72 Te82 T$53 7$49 6$89 Toi3 4$0i 1i62 So5i 7$31 t$63 Tabb 196i be 75 ll4 7$7i 9$13 5$5i ie 77 ion io42 8$51 ~ $01 5$15 5$30 3$17 '10 10e02 9$59 4015 To 98 9oTT '10$09 be 72 4o 52 6e 63 To 37 ie70 Te 81 6» tT 4$52 TeiO 8$50 6$18 ie4T 9adi 9$21 ' t97i 1975 T$23 ~ 29 To59 4$44 '1975 5$37 6$27 1965 1$66 1967 1968 1969 . 1971 1971 1972 1973 1977 1978 1941 1941 Te TO 7$7i 7$3i 6o Oi Sa 23 5$53 4e 56 4a74 5 35 Oo 30 4$ 93 6$ 9i 7$24 4$ T2 3$ 99 io45 4 23 4 00 A$33 5o Oi io17 ie tl io53 1959 1961 1961 7$57 2$14 3 95 ie10 ~ 122$ 1 1 &o 31 3 ib «to12 &$15 3 50 2$ 1i 39e12 «16$00 51 ~ 35 24$05 Oe iT Oo 06 Mib $0$01 l40i ~33 %$35 2$T9 2 56 be 02 3 tt 2 62 «0$23 4$ 3i @$58 eOe 10 l401 2$6t 3 S3 &$08 ie18 Oo 1T 6 T2 ~e51 0 0 19 0$04 l400 i9 a.01ti 2$67 le 63 0 21 3 2o 32 2 83 2e ST 1«03 2 09 2$39 ,3$03 2 99 2 T3 tRÃtAL «Eat 4020 3$61 be 05 SJVZNCS ~$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ OT Oo 0017 0 25 1025 le 11 l452 Oo 39 le 07 le 63 le 50 la 2% to49 1$2i 1$90 ~ $$$ ~ $$$$ lei0 «le '17 «'lie63 '1 «27$32 «bio44 «le 4t 1021 le 58 l4S7 %$53 Mo26 0 56 We 41 «0$42 a.00 551815 %So 4'1 t9$ i9 7$30 3io90 «3$30 9$55 «ttoOT «1 0, 12 0$60 4$01 0 83 «Oo 26 &$61 «1$40 «1 8$06 «boSi 12 9i «17o 17 «25$60 «17o iO Oe 75 0 98 «to 3T «2$2i «1$56 4e i5 «Oe89 «io 98 - «3oii &$49 «1$51 «ie ib «10e 9i «53$7T «39$ Oi «3l40i «2$ 62 «17$49 We 52 «35$03 «31 ~ 98 $$$$$$ %$35 «io 5i ~4$ 37 &$59 ~3T ZEAt. AVE 1451 1955 tOSC 1$51 1961 1965 1964 '1970 1971 1975 1976«t 980 7$33 To 57 4$11 4$17 To 05' So fi Ta83 7$41 4oiT be 75 4o 37 4 99 5 17 5$19 ioTi SoiS 2$67 2$ 62 4e 14 3 73 3 29 2$19 io38 2e 61 $0o 16 ~25 0 15 0001 Aoit 0 04 «0$6i l4'Tl «2e03 1$ 3i Ae '19 &$15 &$71 «22o ii &6$13 ' Budget Deficits in Relation to GNP* Percent 1975 1976 1977 197,8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 198 ' I It Actual + On and off budget as percent of fiscal year GNP. Projected Budget Fiscal Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 actual 1982 projected 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Notes Deficits in Relation to Deficits (Bil. of dols. ) Percent of GNP -3.6 -53 ' 2 -4 ' 5 73 ~ 7 -2. 9 -53.6 -59. 2 -40. 2 -73. 8 -78. 9 -2 ' 8 -1.7 -2. 9 -2. 8 -118.3 -107 ' 2 -97. 2 -82. 8 -77. 0 -62. 5 Figures include off-budget GNP -3 ' 8 -3.1 -2 ' 6 -2. 0 -1.7 -1.3 entities. 3/23/82 Interest Rates and the Relative Size of the Deficit Percent 15 I I I I I 10 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate r v I I I I I II ~ P Q Deficit as a Percent of GNP* 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 Fiscal Year + Federal surplus or deficit includes off-budget items. Points below zero line represent surplus as percent of GNP, points above line a deficit. Projected Borrowing Requirement in Relation to Private Saving Billions of Dollars 700 600 :,"::::::::::::::: Federai Borrowing :': ':''::-. Requirements 500 Gross Private Saving 400 300 200 ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' Y Y 'eve'e ~ e Y ~ ~~~~ ~~ 975 1 976 1 lge Ve ~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~ oVOVoVge ~ ~~~~ ~ 1 978 1 979 1 980 ' ace ace O 977 ~~~ ~~~~~ ~ oYe'e'OVO'e ~ ~ ~~~~ ac~aYaoooao ~ ~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~ Ee oYoYOVOV O ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~~ Y 'Yo' O O ~~~~~~~ oeoeoeeeoeoeoeoe 0 V Yo ~ o ~~~o e'oeoeeoe', O, 100 1 981 ov 1 ~~ ~ 982 ~~OVOVo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Ye ~ ~ ~ ;o' oooooo YOVe~ avoeevaV ~ ~ OA ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ov 983 ~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~ 1 984 Projected Actual Fiscal Year + Total budget deficit including off-budget entities. Note: Saving flows do not reflect surpluses of state and local governments from abroad. or infiows March 24. 1992 Projected Borrowing Requirement Fiscal ~ear 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 actual 1982 projected 1983 1984 Gross in Relation to Private Saving Federal Deficit as share of deficit including private savin off-bud et savin ---billions of dollars —— percent 253. 4 295. 6 309.8 347. 4 392. 2 423. 0 462. 3 -53 ' 2 523 624 -118.3 -107.2 -97. 2 712 73 ~ 7 -53 ' 6 -59. 2 -40. 2 -73.8 -78. 9 -21 ' 0 -24. 9 -17 ' 3 -17.0 -10.2 -17 ' 4 -17 ' 1 -22. 6 -17 ' 2 -13.7 3/23/82 Consumer Prices (percent change from year earlier) percent 15 gIPV I 1' les~ / / 13 1V SV lVP 12 All Itema ii' VP ~ 4' 11 10 11 Vy1 / ~101 j Exctudtng Food and Energy 11 11 1 BLOOP goya 11 llar1i PIPv 1P 1%%% Vi+~ 11 VIP VP I V (II 1 ~ &VlV1 1976 I 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Producer Prices perceni (percent change from year earlier) 16 15 Finished Goods? 14 13 ~ t~ j ~ 1 Og~ 'S 0 12 thIa4 Excluding Food and Energy 10 )I~ IISINO ~ ~ \\ ~ I /Ill p 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Current Law Tax Reduction vs. Quick Fix Alternative Worker with $20, 000 in Wage Income in 1982 Rising with Cost of Living Percent 1 Effective Tax Rate 0.5 1 1 r~ 0.0 9.80 ~W 9.51 9.5 9.19 9.0 Quick Fix ~~ r S8S ~~ 8.50 8.5 8.0 0.07 Current Law 1982 1983 1984 1, 1982 tax 8.25 8.24 8.24 1985 1986 1987 rate reduction Quick Fix alternative leaves the July but cancels the July 1, 1983 tax rate reduction and indexing. in place, RATES OF CHANGE OF MONEY AND PRICES Percent " N 10 GNP Deflator ti 10 I I I I I I:. I . II I I 1 1 't I 1 I I I \ I I 't I I \ )I I V' hq \ I M1B Trend & 'I I I I ~1 I LI I p arLirrLirrrlrlrrllrulrrrlmalrulr)ILIIILLILul 1957 I I I I I I 1V I \ I . IIilLL J Il LliiLLLl LLI I p 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 rate of change; quarter rate of change; data prior to 1st quarter Four-quarter Q Twenty. Latest data plotted: 4th quarter 1 964 are M1. Jrrrww V 21. 1882A 188 Mi VERSUS TARGET RANGE" 470 5k% 460 ~o o~ ~ oo oo 8.5% ~o 0 450 ~o ~o o 6.0% ~o o + oo ~~ o ~~ o Actual ~o ~ ~ ~o ~~ ~ ~ ~o o 440 ~~ ~o ~o ~ ~o ~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~o $ o~ ~~~ ~ ~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~ ~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ boffo ~ o o o oo 430 ~ 420 o ~ ~ ~ ~ oo o o, ~ o o o o ~ ~ o ~ ~~ 0~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ 410 1 980 «Weekly Averages-Seasonally 1 981 Adjusted ~o o 1982 ~, o ~ o / "' ohio ~o 2'h % INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION Percent 15 ~0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 10 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~0 ~0 ~~ 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~0 ~0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ 0Og 4 yO ~~ I ~ ~ ~ ~0 ~ ~ 0 ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ;t ~ ~ ~i0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 y ~0 63 ~ Inflation Rate* 65 67 69 ~ Growth from year earlier in GNP deflator. Plotted quarterly. 71 75 77 79 S1 July 17. 1981 A169 CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY MONTHLY Percent ISE ~ E ~ I ~ Sdd ~ I ~ I ~ I W I ~ ESSES~ ~ IE ~ I ~ IIEISS~ EEI ~ I ~ SIISSIEISEIS~ IIS H R Q 1.5 R M1 W 1.0 I ~ ~ SESS~ ~~ ~ IS ~ E ~ E ~ II ~ IIISI ~ ISIS~ I ~ IIS ~ ~ I I II ~ I ~ E ~ E ~ I ~ I ~ I ~ I ~ I ~ ~ I ~ ~ I ~ II ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ SIS I IIIIII ~ ~ IS ~ IS ESI ~ ~ I I II ~ II ~ I ~ ~ ~ I I Il ~ Sd ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ I' ~ ~ I ~ SSISSI~ ~ SIISEESSI I ~ SSSSSEESSS~ ~ ESEESESSSISSESISIS —1.0 —1.5 1978 1979 19SO 1981 Quarterly Rates of Growth of Monetary Base and the Money Supply (M~) Percent 16 14 12 Monetary Base (St. Louis) 10 pl l \ I I I I I lt r+ 8% I I I I 4% 0 0% 1979 1980 1981 Weekly ~Quarterly growth rates based on four-week averages compared with four-week averages thirteen weeks earlier, at annual rates. Latest week plotted: March 3 for M1, March 10 for monetary base. 1982 Base Growth vs. 3-Month T-Bill Monetary 7 I I I I g g 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate 'L (right scale) g 6 lpl I Monetary Growth~ (left scale) Base~ 1 31 20 JAN 26 FEB +S2 Week Growth on 26 22 20 MAR APR MAY 4-Week Moving Averages 17 16 JUL 1981 JUN 12 AUG 9 SEP 7 OCT 4 2 NOV 30 DEC 27 JAN 10 24 FEB 1982 THE THREE-MONTH TREASURY BILL RATE AND GROWTH OF Mt Percent Percent ~ vv ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 18 18 Bank discount rate on 13-week Treasury bills, ~a level 16 16 14 14 12 12 a ~vv ~Pl ~ 10 10 Mu annualize d ttrowth rate over Ihe prevlo us 13 weeks, computed by Ioa rettresstons ~ on time ~ ae vv ~ vs+ 0 ~~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ vv vv ~ ~ ~ ~ vv ~e ~v ~ ~v ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ Jan. Feb, Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. 1981 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1982 6 INTERMEDIATE AND LONG MARKET RATES Weekly Averages ~e 18 18 New Conventional Mortgages ~ eo ~ eo e 16 ~ ~ ~ oo w e ee ~ ~ Ioee 13 ~ ,8 iJ ~e ~ &e A 16 oo+ r ~Oo e~e+eoeeeoom ee eo ooo Oe ~ g Oe 8 oeeooo ~ ~e Ooo~ e eoooooe oe eo ~oo ~, e e eo ~~Corporates New Aa 14 12 eee~e 13 Treasury 10-Year Treasury 20- Year Through March t9 10 10 8 Feb Jan Mar Apr May June July 1981 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 8 1982 Note: Mortgage data plotted monthly ollro ol IIO slclmel7 ol Ollre III~ I&ooome d Cmommool f moncioo Clmcb 24 IC$2 SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES Weekly Averages Prime Rate 20 20 Federal Funds 18 18 16 /"'g» ~ ~ i~o Og -. g~ 14 i ~~ ~ ~ +OiO 14 3 Month Treasury Bill / t ~ gl 12 Through March 12 22 ~so +et 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1981 olive Oft & ~ d lie Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 10 Mar 1982 Secreury el llw Isosauey d Governnanl f wsnc&ng MsrCk 2t, 10' pepartment of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone %66-2041 March RELEASE RESULTS OF AUCTION 24, 1982 OF 4-YEAR NOTES of the Treasury has accepted $3i753 million of $8i297 million of tenders received from the public for the 4-year notes, Series G-1986, auctioned today. The notes will be issued Narch 31, 1982, and mature March 31, 1986. The range The interest coupon rate on the notes will be 149 . of accepted competitive bids, and the corresponding prices at the 14% coupon rate are as foJ, lows: Bids Prices Lowest yield 14. 02% 99. 940 Highest yield 14. 08% 99. 762 Average yield 14. 05% 99. 851 Tenders at the high yield were allotted 13%. The Department TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED Boston New S Received 603 ~3, 6, 650, 338 26, 000 65, 045 66, 311 48, 525 914, 485 71, 459 14, 982 43, 574 20, 999 337, 960 York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury Totals (In Thousands) Accepted 25, 303 3, 162, 879 25, 000 49, 695 24, 701 40, 829 194, 060 63, 219 13, 645 42, 074 3, 350 18, 999 89, 535 3, 348 $8 296, 631 $3, 753, 287 million million of accepted tenders includes $ 722 675 of tenders million competitive tenders and $2, It also includes $356 million of tenders at the from private investors. average price from Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities in exchange for maturing securities. 1n addition to the $3 753 million of tenders accepted in the auction process, $288 million of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks for their own account in exchange for maturing securities, and $144 million of tenders were accepted at the average price from Federal Reserve Banks as agents monetary authorities for new cash. for foreign and international $3, 753 of noncompetitive The ~ R-699 !partment of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE Mare 25, 1982 ~ Washington, RELEASE Statement D.C. ~ Teleilhone S66-204' Contact: Charles Powers 566-2041 by Donald T. Regan Secretary of the Treasury Safe Harbor Leasing There has been much debate about the safe harbor leasinq of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. In order to enhance the discussion and encourage informed review of this important issue, we are releasing preliminary information on total 1981 safe harbor leasing activity. Our information is based on a representative sample of 2000 leases. When a larger sample has been analysed, additional information will be provision released. Overall, our analysis indicates that the value of leased property in 1981 totaled $19.3 billion, very close to the figure In addition, upon which we based our initial revenue estimates. most of the tax benefits from leased property, about 84 percent, go to the lessee, while 15 percent is retained by lessors with the remaining one percent covering transaction costs to third parties. of the dollar value of all leased property More than in transactions in excess of $10 million. however 60 percent of the number of actual lease transactions, involved less than 8100,000 of property, and nearly 95 percent Transaction costs for involved less than $1 million of property. small lease arrangements appear to be no larger, relative to the size of the transactions, than they are for large lease transactions. These facts indicate that there are no real barriers to leasing by small companies. Over 85 percent was involved Finally, companies in mining, oil and gas drilling, lumber and paper, chemicals, airlines, primary metals, motor vehicles, railroads, shipping and utilities were major lessees. This list includes most of those industries that have been considered "distressed. " Safe harbor leasing is a significant element in this effort to increase growth and productivity in Administration's provide jobs. It is a realistic attempt to and the economy incentives to invest to all firms. If our further provide egual we will propose modifications the need, in the study indicates harbor leasing rules. existing safe R-700 apartment of the Treasiiry FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Washington, RELEASE TREASURY OFFERS $8, 000 MILLION additional by this public notice, $8, 000 million of 20 -day of the Treasury, for approximately be issued April 2, 1982, representing an maturing amount of bills dated April 23, 1981, invites tenders Treasury 20 -DAY BILLS CASH MANAGEMENT The Department OF D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 March 26, 1982 bills to April 22, 1982 (CUSIP No. 912793 7G 5). Competitive tenders will be received at all Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to 1:30 p. m. , Eastern Standard time, Tuesday, blarch 30, 1982. Wire and telephone tenders may be received at the discretion of each Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. Each tender for the issue must be for a minimum amount of $1,000, 000. Tenders over $1,000, 000 must be in multiples of $1,000, 000. The price on tenders offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with. three decimals, e. g. , 97=920. Fractions may not be used. tenders from the public will not be accepted. Noncompetitive Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competiand at maturity their par amount will be payable interest. The bills will be issued entirely in book-entry tive bidding, without form in a minimum denomination of $10,000 and in any higher $5, 000 on the records of the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches. Additional amounts of the bills may be issued to Federal Reserve monetary authorities Banks as agents for foreign and international multiple, at the average price of accepted competitive tenders. institutions and dealers who make primary markets securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities may submit tenders for account of customers, if the names of the customers and the amount for each customer are furnished. Others are only permitted to submit tenders for their own account. Each tender must state the amount of any net long position in the bills being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million. This information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p. m. , Such positions would Eastern time, on the day of the auction. include bills acquired through "when issued" trading, futures, and Banking in Government R- 701 transactions as well as holdings of outstanding bills with the same maturity date as the new offering, e. g. , bills with three Dealers, months to maturity previously offered as six-month bills. and securities report daily Government in who make primary markets in and their positions York New of Bank Reserve to the Federal borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net. long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million. tenders from incorporated banks No deposit need accompany and recognized dealers from responsible and and trust. companies of 2 percent of the par A deposit securities. in investment tenders for such must for accompany bills applied amount of the of an express payment by an unless guaranty from others, bills tenders. the accompanies bank trust or company incorporated forward Public announcement will be made by the Department, of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretary's action shall be final. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch in cash or other immediately-avai:lable funds on Friday, April 2, 1982. Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the of discount, at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax return of the owner as ordinary income The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount Under amount is determined by multiplying such discount by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of the bill. If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer's ratable portion of the acquisition discount, treated as short. -term capital gain. the excess gain is Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt SeriesNos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. Department of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 ~ Washington, 29, 1982 March RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $4, 701 million of 13-week bills and for $4, 703 million of were accepted today26~eek bills, both to be issued on April 1, 1982, 13-week OF ACCEPTED RANGE COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturi bills July 1, 1982 Investment Rate 1/ Discount . Rate High Low Average a/ Excepting 3 Tenders Tenders maturi Price Price 96. 627 13.344% 14.00% 96. 603 13.439% 14. 10% 14.06% 96. 613 13.399% tenders totaling $3, 040, 000. at the at the low low 26"week bills September 30, 1982 Investment Discount Rate 1/ Rate 14.36% 93.320 a/ 13.213% 14.41% 93.296 13.261% 93.305 13.243% 2/ 14.39% price for the 13-week bills were allotted price for the 26-week bills were allotted 16%. 18%. TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED ted:: 42, (In Thousands) Received Location Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury TOTALS ~e Competitive Noncompetitive Public Federal Reserve Subtotal, Official Institutions Foreign TOTALS $ 53, 455 9, 185, 525 64, 585 54, 210 36, 860 51, 855 817, 655 39, 960 ~Acce $ 775 3, 666, 525 64, 070 36, 510 35, 860 46, 460 370, 390 37, 360 11,750 11,750 46, 195 28, 370 784, 045 183, 075 $11,357, 540 45, 865 28, 370 132, 265 183, 075 $4, 701, 275 726, 290 $2, 836, 935 897, 150 $3, 734, 085 726, 290 240, 900 $11,357, 540 9, 493, 200 897, 150 $10, 390, 350 : $ : : : : : : : : : : : 88, 725 733, 765 39, 015 18, 795 44, 940 23, 960 888, 950 247, 875 : $11, 113,755 8, 695, 915 ~dcce $ ted 48, 300 3, 670, 840 22, 435 67, 855 45, 535 45, 725 179, 815 33, 015 15, 235 43, 695 23, 960 258, 450 247, 875 $4, 702, 735 700, 000 $2, 284, 895 864, 640 $3, 149, 535 700, 000 240, 900 853, 200 853, 200 $4, 701, 275 $11, 113,755 $4, 702, 735 $ 864, 640 9, 560, 555 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. the maximum 2/ The four-week average for calculating is 12. 735%. certificates on money market R-702 Received 78, 940 8;709, 275 23, 255 123, 085 93, 175 interest rate payable FOR IMMEDIATE The Treasury announced today that the 2-1/2 year yield curve rate for the five business Treasury ending 29, 1982 RELEASE MARCH March the nearest 29, 1982, averaged five basis points. /W90 % days rounded to Ceiling rates based this rate will be in effect from Tuesday, March 30, 1982 through Monday April 12, 1982. Detailed rules as to the use of this rate in establishing the ceiling rates for small saver certificates were published in the Federal Register on July 17, 1981. Small saver ceiling rates and related information on is available The phone from the DIDC on a recorded number telephone message. is (202)566-3734. Approved ncis X. Cavanaugh cting Director Office of Market Analysis & Agency Finance impartment of' the Treasury ~ Washington, O. c. ~ Telephone 566-IC4'3 ADDRESS BY BERYL W. SPRINKEL, UNDER SECRETARY FOR MONETARY AFFAIRS, BEFORE THE TWENTY-THIRD ANNUAL MEETING OF THE INTER AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANKS CARTAGENAg COLOMBIA March 30, 1982 Mr. President, fellow Governors, ladies a great honor and a pleasure for me to be here today to represent the United States at this twentythird annual meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank. Secretary Regan has asked me to convey his regards and best wishes for a successful meeting. Mr. Chairman, and gentlemen, it is I would like to offer my thanks to the government and people of Colombia for the warm welcome and generous hospitality they have extended to me and all the members of the It has been a real pleasure to visit this U. S. delegation. beautiful and historic city of Cartagena. This year's meeting has provided me with a wonderful opportunity to meet with my colleagues from Latin America, and to learn more about the Inter-American Development Bank and the important role it plays in the hemisphere. role of the Bank in furthering the growth and developof Latin America and the Caribbean has been highlighted at this year's meeting by the ongoing discussions of the proposed replenishment of IDB resources. In this context, I would like to take this opportunity to describe for you today the framework within which my government will be formulating its final position regarding participation in the proposed sixth I would hope that this will help to maintain replenishment. the momentum of the negotiations, and aid others in formulating their positions, so that fruitful discussions can continue at the next session in Berlin in July. The ment The survival since its and growth creation more of the Inter-American Development years ago adequately testifies to the importance of the institution and the mutual benefits derived by borrowers and donors alike. I do not need to remind you of the special importance of Latin America President Reagan's and the Caribbean to my government. Organization American States outlined to the of recent address to deal with the special initiative designed a bold new needs of the countries of the Caribbean critical problems and Bank than twenty Basin. Basin Initiative is a multi-nation plan in the Caribbean and Central in cooperation with Canada, Mexico, more Colombia. recently, We are now seeking and This Caribbean to promote economic growth America, and was developed Venezuela, R-703 Congressional approval of the major elements of our contribution to the Caribbean Basin, which include first, a onefor way free trade area; second, special tax incentives assistance. financial increased third, and investment; a key role in this The IDB itself has undertaken of economic developformulation the coordinate to intiative We would like America. Central of countries ment plans for the undertake this program. to willingness to commend the IDB for its the United supported are by strongly All of these efforts States as positive measures to address immediate, specific needs which are unique to countries of this particular region. — But, "the special programs I have mentioned are just that— "special. They can only be complementary to the long-term, on-going work of the Inter-American Development Bank. The best hope for sustained growth and prosperity in the region lies in the hands of the countries themselves. The multilateral development banks, in particular the IDB, can play a key role in ecnouraging growth and prosperity. It was within this context of better defining the role of development banks that we undertook just the multilateral over a year ago to assess U. S. participation in the MDBs. study. The Many of you now have read the recently completed central conclusions of that study are that the multilateral for promoting a development banks are effective instruments healthy and growing world economy, and that U. S. participation in the MDBs has served and humanitarian important interests. U. S. economic, political, the Assessment recognizes that the of the multilateral development banks can be improved by enhancing their role as financial catalysts, and as providers of sound economic policy advice, through insistence on appropriate macro economic and sector policies. The Assessment also recognizes the considerable scope for increased financial leverage of the capital resources of all the banks, in particular the IDB, whose financial strength and degree of recognition in capital markets is consistently reflected in its Triple-A At the same time, effectiveness bond ratings. We will be seeking, within the context of the proposed sixth replenishment of IDB resources, to implement many of the recommendations of the Assessment. We believe these recommendations are critical to the future effectiveness and viability of the IDB; and the extent to which they are implemented will play a major role in determining the nature of U. S. participation in the institution. are aware of the fact that the IDB is a multilateral and that the influence of any single shareholder But, I believe we can arrive at a consensus which supports our objectives, and that, together we can move forward in a deliberate and well conceived fashion. Our major goal is, after all, to make the IDB an even more effective institution; this is a goal which we all share. We institution, is limited. Turning now to the specifics of our program, there are three basic objectives which we are pursuing. These objectives are: greater private sector involvement; a shift in the allocation of resources towards those countries which are most in need, and which demonstrate a desire and ability to make the best use of those resources; and, while bearing in mind the need to maintain the strong financial reputation of the IDB, an increase in the financial leverage of contributions and subscriptions to the IDB, to reflect the strengthened position in international financial markets of some of the IDB's major borrowers. respect to the first of these objectives -- greater private sector involvement -- let me emphasize that our attitude toward international policy questions generally is consistent with our own internal economic policy. Internationally, as well as domestically, we are committed to the free market that economic growth and productivity We are convinced system. can be advanced most effectively, both at home and abroad, through greater reliance on private economic activity. With In terms of the IDB, we anticipate an increased emphasis as a catalyst for private investment flows. Taxpayers in the donor countries should not be expected to shoulder burdens which can be accommodated by the free play To this end the IDB can facilitate of market incentives. attractive investment environments in their borrower countries by: on its role -- free and open markets; reducing barriers to private capital investment encouraging encouraging limiting helping sound economic policies; the scope of government; those countries flows; prepared and to help themselves. private sector co-financing represents a significant source of potential private sector involvement in development. twenty The IDB has already begun to tap this source, approving "complementary" loans totalling $513 million in the period 1976 through ]981. This is a commendable effort, and we fully support IDB's plans to expand its complementary financing program. All of the multilateral development banks must recognize that public sources of development resources will remain strictly limited over the coming years, and steps must be If taken to increase the flow of private co-financing. its full realizing to potential, co-financing is to come close of the three it must be shown to be --in the best interests the borrower, the private lender, participating parties of co-financing and the IDB. The terms and flexibility instruments will have to be made more attractive to the private lenders. The borrowers will need to realize that limited IDB funds can be blended with additional resources are through private co-financing, and that such arrangements process of development a natural element of the evolutionary assistance. Discussion of the IDB's catalytic role brings me to our second major objective in the bank: the pursuit of wellIn the IDB formulated maturation and graduation policies. member incomes of borrowing capita where in particular, per an we will be encouraging countries are relatively high, window on hard funds, its borrowers reliance increasing by thereby releasing scarce concessional funds for allocation among only the poorest countries. the substantial development needs of Latin We understand America and the Caribbean. We are not convinced, however, that these needs can be financed ~onl with concessional funds of the amount and on the terms currently provided by the Fund for While we are willing to consider some Special Operations. replenishment of resources to be provided on terms more concessional than in the IDB's capital window, these resources should be allocated only to the poorest countries of the region which cannot afford nor have adequate access to alter- native sources of finance. time, in order that sufficient hard window can be made available to "maturing" IDB borrowers, the higher income borrowers must reduce their reliance on IDB capital, and turn increasingly to private markets in which they have already demonstrated their credit-worthiness. At the same funds I have already discussed the role of private co-financing in providing assistance to IDB borrowers. Such co-financing is a natural element of the maturation/graduation process which we foresee in the IDB. But, in order for this graduation/maturation policy to be successfully implemented, and in order to attract th~ private co-financing which is a part of that process, the IDB must link its loans and technical assistance to appropriate micro economic and sector policy advice, and to the pursuit by its borrowers of appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. On the micro-economic policy side, this advice should address: reducing impediments minimizing -- eliminating private producer to market determination and consumer bureaucratic subsidies; constraints of prices; and to a dynamic sector. the macro-economic side, the IDB should, through its of IMF support and facilitate the implementation and generally work to ensure that programs where appropriate, its projects are being carried out in an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth and development. On lending, are convinced that when such policies are introduced, rigorously adhered to, the climate for both domestic and foreign private investment will significantly improve. We and third major objective we will be pursuing in the sixth is increased financial leverage of the IDB's capital resources. As the IDB prepares for another expansion of its resources, we believe it is imperative to question how great an increase is needed, given the considerable scope for further expansion of the Bank's financial leverage. The IDB is a mature financial institution with a proven track record credit markets. Given the obvious constraints in international on budgetary outlays from IDB donor countries in the eighties, A replenishment and need for a significant IDB lending program, that use of IDB resources be maximized. the. continuing it is essential There are two specific areas in which we are focusing our attention: paid-in capital and usable callable capital. While I will leave the details to our representative in the replenlet me just make a few key points. ishment negotiations, First, we believe there is considerable potential for expanding the Bank's lending program without requiring an unrealistic direct budgetary contribution from participating countries. Second, a key component of a successful matura- policy will be an increasing use of higher tion/graduation contributions and subscriptions as backing income borrowers' for IDB bonds. These countries already borrow considerable sums on their own in commercial markets, and there is no reason their paid-in and callable capital cannot be l00 percent usable by the bank in its borrowing operations. Third, as retained earnings provide for higher levels of accumulated reserves, the argument in favor of high proporMaintenance tions of paid-in capital becomes less convincing. covers all Bank's which fully the rate costs and lending of a in amortization and adjustments grace periods appropriate wi]l permit the IDB's existing paid-in capital and reserves to continue to generate further profits, thereby enhancing of equity cushion and preventing the decapitalization the institution. today the three goals which are the of our approach to the proposed underpinnings resource replenishment for the IDB. These goals were formulated in the context of a thorough assessment of all the multilateral development banks. We are pursuing these goals not because we believe the banks have done a bad job in the past, or because U. S. support for these institutions has weakened, but rather because we believe that the banks can do an even better job in the future, and because achievement of our goals and objectives will result in stronger, more effective institutions which can count on the support of both traditional and new donor countries. I have mentioned structural In sum, we support continued growth in the IDB's lending reliance on nonWe favor the concept of increasing program. traditional donors to help finance that lending program. process Development assistance should support an evolutionary in which funds are allocated to countries most in need, while those countries which already have access to alternative sources of finance rely less and less on development bank funds. Consistent with maintaining the financial integrity of the Bank and its financial maturity we- expect the Bank to be able to better leverage subscriptions made by member governments. Development assistance should be seed money to encourage the adoption of appropriate economic policies which will result, in turn, in increased access to private markets. The IDB itself has evolved over the previous twenty years so that it also can "mature" out of total dependence on donor country contributions to a reliance on its own ability to attract private resources. This is the future we foresee for the IDB, and we believe it is a promising one. yepcmrisnent of |:he 'treessury ~ Ncmshinston, D.c. o Telephone 566-204% For Release Upon Delivery Expected at 10:00 a. m. EST STATEMENT OF DAVID G - GLICKMAN DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY ( TAX POLICY) BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND AGRICULTURAL TAXATION OF THE SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE MARCH Mr. Chairman I and Members 30, 1982 of the Subcommittee: pleased to appear before you today to present the Department's views on S. 1819, a bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code with respect to the taxation of crude oil purchasing cooperatives. Under the bill, crude oil purchasing cooperatives would be treated in a manner similar to that accorded exempt farmers' cooperatives under section 521 of the Code. Consequently, unlike so-called "subchapter T" cooperatives which are taxable on all nonpatronage business, crude oil purchasing cooperatives would be able to claim deductions against income for amounts paid to patrons from nonpatronage sources, including income from business done with the United States and its agencies. am Treasury Treasury opposes enactment of S. 1819. advised that this Committee is also We were recently considering S. 2151, a bill to amend the Code to add an additional item to the list of specially defined energy time to study the bill We have not had sufficient property. However, we would be pleased and comment on its provisions. to forward our comments for the record if the Chairman would perm it us to do so. Taxation of Cooperatives In general, cooperatives governed by subchapter T of the Code are not subject to tax when operating on a cooperative basis with patrons. The advantage of operating on a cooperative basis is that it allows small businesses to form association which may use its large size to obtain purchasing and marketing economies and efficiencies for the benefit of its patrons without incurring a corporate tax at the association level. The elimination of the corporate level tax is accomplished by permitting a deduction for distributions (or deemed distributions) from cooperatives to patrons which are based on the amount of business done with are the patrons on a cooperative basis. Such distributions includible in the income of the patron. Use of the cooperative form enables patrons to defer the recognition of These benefits are not income in patronage transactions. available with respect to transactions which are not carried out on a cooperative basis' "Tax-exempt" farmers' cooperatives calculate their income in the same way as subchapter T cooperatives but, in addition, receive other significant tax benefits, including the ability to deduct from gross income dividends paid on capital stock and amounts paid to patrons with respect to earnings derived from business done with the United States Government or its agencies or (to a limited extent) from other nonpatronage sources. an Descri tion of the Bill S. 1819 is intended to provide crude oil purchasing cooperatives the same tax benefits as are available to farmers' cooperatives. In addition, the bill would grant to significant benefits not available to such organizations farmers' cooperatives. S. 1819 would exempt from income tax crude oil The membership of such cooperatives purchasing cooperatives. must consist of independent refiners or subchapter T cooperatives and must be organized for the purpose of: (1) purchasing crude oil and reselling it to members, nonmember refiners and nonmember subchapter T cooperatives independent and turning back to them the proceeds of such resale less necessary expenses; (2) purchasing supplies and equipment for the use of members, nonmember independent refiners and nonmember subchapter T cooperatives and turning over such supplies and equipment to them at actual cost plus necessary expenses; (3) trading crude oil; (4) storing crude oil; and (5) insuring risks associated with any of the enumerated activities. The bill describes necessary expenses as being the greater of 15 percent of the costs allocable to such activity or the amount demonstrated by the cooperative as being properly allocable to the costs of such activity. oil purchasing cooperatives in a manner which is far less to farmers' cooperatives. Crude operate applied under S. 1819 could restrictive than First, membership of farmers cooperatives is limited to fruit growers and like organizations. Membership in crude oil purchasing cooperatives is not limited in any respect since, in addition to independent refiners, any subchapter T cooperative may be a member. There is no requirement that the subchapter T cooperative members must be independent refiners. farmers, Second, section 521 does not specifically authorize farmers' cooperatives to trade or store agricultural products, nor does it authorize the insurance of risks relating to such activities. S. 1819 does so with respect to activities of crude oil purchasing cooperatives. More importantly S. 1819 allows the oil purchasing cooperative to engage in "any other activity incidental to" the itemized purposes or "designed to increase the efficiency of the associations" in carrying out the itemized activities. This would appear to permit these organizations to engage in refining activities and to purchase and market refined It may also permit the cooperatives to construct products. and sell refining equipment. 1819 contains a "necessary expense" rule which the cooperative to treat as a expense with respect to a patronage transaction 15 percent of costs allocable to an activity even when the actual cost attributable to the patronage activity is less. This would permit the cooperative to make a profit on cooperative transactions with patrons. Furthermore, this profit would to not be subject to tax to the extent it is distributed members as a dividend on capital stock. Neither section 521 farmers' cooperatives nor other cooperatives are granted such Third, would ST permit benefits. Fourth, S. 1819 would increase the amount of business that can be done on a nonpatronage basis by crude oil Under section 521, purchasing cooperatives to 25 percent. farmers' cooperatives are limited in the amount of business they can do with nonpatrons to 15 percent of the value of all the cooperative's purchases' 27, 1981, this Subcommittee held hearings on One of the tax incentives for independent refiners. incentives then considered was a proposal to allow refiners to organize crude oil purchasing independent At that hearing the Treasury Department cooperatives. Since opposed adoption of the exempt cooperative proposal. and detail greater in that time we have studied the proposal The refiners. independent of have met with representatives Treasury Department remains strongly opposed to the enactment of ST 1819. Statements submitted on March 27, 1981 on behalf of the American Petroleum Refiners Association and the Independent Refiners Association of America indicated that the rationale for the exempt cooperative proposal was: (1) to enable refiners to negotiate long-term oil supply independent contracts at a level equivalent to that of government-to(that is, it was felt that in dealing government negotiations with foreign government oil marketing organizations, purchasing cooperatives would have greater bargaining leverage than an individual independent refiners); (2) to obtain broader access to financial markets; and (3) to avoid antitrust complications. On March It has not been demonstrated that the achievement of the goals of this legislation can not be accomplished under current law in a variety of ways. refiners can combine to attain these goals Independent without incurring a corporate level tax through the use of form of operation, the corporate form (but the partnership with the additional cost of a seven-plus percent tax on intercorporate dividends) or as a subchapter T cooperative. refiners contend that the Although the independent partnership and corporate forms are deficient for a variety of reasons (a contention with which we disagree), subchapter the three goals. T of the Code can clearly accommodate three avowed First, independent refiners can establish cooperatives crude oil from foreign suppliers under long-term contracts. Their larger size may assist them in dealing with foreign governments on a more advantageous basis. Second, the combined financial resources of the purchasing cooperatives may permit such organizations to obtain more favorable financing than they would if they seek to purchase oil independently. Third, whatever antitrust implications exist for subchapter T cooperatives presumably exist for crude oil purchasing cooperatives. to purchase Since under subchapter T such cooperatives will not pay an income tax to the extent they deal with their members or patrons on a cost plus expenses basis it is not apparent why there is a need to amend the tax laws to provide tax exemption for crude oil purchasing cooperatives. Obviously, refiners in this bill must be seeking something independent more than freedom to operate in a cooperative form on behalf of patrons. S. 1819 allow such cooperatives to operate in the taxable corporations in dealing with without the obligation to pay a corporate income tax. We see no justification for exempting crude oil purchasing cooperatives from income tax where they are not In that operating on a cooperative basis with customers. business are not different than other they capacity any entity and should be taxed accordingly. Although Congress has provided rules permitting cooperatives to avoid a corporate level tax, these rules generally apply only to the extent of business done with patrons on a cooperative basis. While this restriction is relaxed somewhat in the case of farmers' cooperatives, S. 1819 would grant to crude oil purchasing cooperatives benefits in excess of even those available to farmers. There is no justification for such a tax preference. would same manner as nonmembers but Finally, such an amendment could have an adverse impact corporate tax receipts to the extent that exempt cooperatives deprive taxable corporations of profits from crude oil purchasing and related business. In addition, companies which must pay corporate taxes currently would be placed at a competitive disadvantage. upon the Federal For S. 1819. all these reasons we oppose the enactment of department of the Treasury EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE UPON ~ Expected at 10:30 A. M. , EST Tuesday, March 30, 1982 Washington, DELIVERY TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE DONALD SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE HOUSE BANKING COMMITTEE Mr. Chairman D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204'l and Members of the T. REGAN Committee, It is a pleasure to be with you today to discuss the economic outlook and the Budget. I hope this occasion will be part of an on-going dialogue between the Committee and the Administration over the need to restore a stable fiscal climate to promote long-term noninflationary growth in the American economy. As you know, the economy continues in the grip of the second recession in two years. This latest downturn began in July 1981, hard on the heels of the sharp recession of 1980, from which the economy had never really recovered. Together they form one long period of near zero growth. The causes of the problem are clear: years of excessive rising interest rates, rising money growth, rising inflation, tax rates, and rising Federal spending as a share of GNP. With the help of the Congress, we hope to continue the fight to bring Federal spending and deficits under control. With the help of the Federal Reserve, we hope to bring inflation These steps will lead to an early end and interest rates down. to the current downturn. In spite of the continued slide in the first quarter of 1982, there are some hopeful signs. Excess inventories are being drawn down at a rapid rate. This is typical of the last stages of a recession. Retail sales are rising. Housing starts Durable goods orders have leveled off. And, are up slightly. very important for the financial well-being of all Americans, whether of working age or retirees, inflation continues to fall. importantly, we have in place a sound long-run tax system for the 1980's. It will not only help bring an early end to the current recession, but will promote rapid growth of income, savings, investment and employment for years to come. tax system, with a healthy economy, will generate as much revenue as government should reasonably be allowed to spend. More R-705 However, the short-run revenue picture has been heavily the recession and the drop in by two factors: one bitter pill and one piece of candy which affected inflation -- together have significantly decreased revenue to the point of causing large deficits. The recession is temporary, and the decline in inflation is most welcome. Nonetheless, nominal GNP is estimated to be 4 percent lower than was forecast last March, and the 1982 unemployment rate over one and one-half percentage points higher. These changes in economic assumptions have added roughly $60 billion to the deficit projections for FY-1983 compared to our estimate last year. Higher interest rates and a higher level of national debt by FY-1983 have added $30 billion more. We, therefore, had to face some tough decisions about how to cover the costs of some very important government programs how to make up the difference between the $666. 1 billion in revenues and the $757. 6 billion in outlays -- until the growing economy triggered by our reformed tax system brings growing revenues into line with restrained outlays. Some have urged us to revoke the incentive-creating tax cuts already in place. The result would have been lower real growth for many years into the future. It would have involved a self-defeating major change in a permanent tax program to handle a temporary problem. Instead, we shall propose certain worthwhile tax reforms, upgrade our tax collection program, renew our efforts at controlling spending, and borrow to cover the remaining deficit. Deficits are not good. They rob the private sectoi of financial and real resources needed for growth, and divert those resources into government consumption. So do taxes. The root of the problem is the Federal spending which appropriates those real resources and then must find the means to pay for them in one way or another. The budget deficit can and must be narrowed from the spending side. For too long, spending has been rising faster than the economy has grown. The economy can no longer support progress was made last year in reducing the in Federal non-defense Further efforts will be required this year and into thespending future. the burden. runaway Some rate of growth . Insofar as spending is not reduced, it is preferable to close the remaining transitional recession deficits of the sort now being experienced by borrowing rather than by taxing. The funds are pulled from the private sector in either case, but taxes impose a larger cost in terms of reduced incentives for real growth. Borrowing diverts a portion of private savings away from capital formation to enable the government to gain command over a portion of current output. Taxing also enables the government to have at its disposal a portion of current output. Taxation reduces private saving and it too cuts back the resources available for capital formation. However, there is a difference. In recent years, tax increases have generally taken the form of allowing inflation to push taxpayers into higher brackets, or allowing inflation The former to erode the value of depreciation allowances. reduces the value of incremental present or future wages and interest income; the latter reduces the rate of return on The effect is to reduce the supply of plant and equipment. labor, savings, plant and equipment, cutting down on future output. Thus, taxation often produces disincentives which adversely affect future output, as well as directing a portion of current output to the government. Federal borrowing creates debt that must be serviced, and this implies the future payment of taxes, but it need not require an increase in marginal tax rates, as long as economic growth produces an enlarged tax base. Thus, borrowing should have less adverse impact on future output than taxation. Therefore, in deciding how to cover the transitional deficits associated with the current recession, we feel it is better to borrow, while leaving the tax incentives in place for long-run growth, rather than to undo the structural tax reforms of the ERTA, and choke off future expansion. to strive to reduce the deficit by real growth. The budget take major steps toward closing that deficit we are proposing In the interim, it can be over the next several years. fashion. The first three charts handled in a nondisruptive help to put the deficit into perspective. The projected deficits, though some of them are at record dollar levels, are not unusual following a recession when measured as a percent of GNP. On- and off-budget deficits were 3.6 and 4. 5 percent of GNP in Fiscal Years 1975 and ].976, Deficits are projected due largely to the 1974-1975 recession. to be 3.8 percent and 3.1 percent of GNP in Fiscal Years 1982 and 1983, largely as a result of the current recession. There has been considerable concern that our projected deficits will drive up interest rates. However, we believe there will be ample private sector saving to finance these We must continue curtailing spending and promoting deficits and strong will be no need for Reserve, which would The There increases in capital formation. creation the money Federal by inflationary indeed deficits will drive up be manageable interest rates. because of the growth of private sector saving. Private saving resulting from growth and the Economic Recovery Tax normal year-over-year Act will be several times greater than the total borrowing requirement of the Federal Government in 1983 and 1984 and thereafter. additions to total private saving are larger in the deficit. They will produce "crowding the rise than in" rather than "crowding out. " This extra shot in the arm of capital markets will put downward pressure on interest rates. Even after financing the Federal deficit, there will be billions of additional dollars each year for private investment. The annual increases in saving exceed $40 billion Normal year-to-year each year. This will be supplemented by the additional personal savings and additional business retained earning induced by the tax cuts. Compared to 1981, private saving will be more than $60 billion higher in 1982, more than $170 billion higher in 1983, and more than $260 billion higher in 1984. Private saving was $480 billion in 1981. It is projected to rise to more than $740 billion in 1984. not all of this saving is available for Unfortunately, and financing deficits. Some is needed to replace wornout equipment. Net saving, which is gross saving less depreciation, is being diverted to finance government spending at an alarming rate, although not so severely as in the recession of 1974-1975 (see appendix). Fortunately, net saving will rise with gross saving. Nonetheless, every effort should be made to restrain Federal spending to promote future investment and growth. growth of growth has been responsible for much of the current deficit. As a rough rule of thumb, each time growth falls off by enough to produce a 1 percent increase in unemployment, the budget deficit widens by more than $25 billion. In fact, if we had grown fast enough over the past four years to get unemployment down below 6 percent, the current deficit would be roughly $75 billion lower. Growth is the only way to balance the budget while promoting ri'sing real income and employment. I would like to point out, very firmly, that. any changes in the economic recovery program which reduce real growth will tend to worsen the budget picture. Changes which reduce individual or business saving by as much as or more than the deficit will only worsen . the situation in the credit markets. Lack and projected The budget is not merely an accounting document. One cannot simply take a billion dollars out of column A and put it in column B. There are behavior changes and economic repercussions from tax and spending shifts which affect saving, investment, labor supply, income and revenue. Very often, changes which may look good on paper will buy little or no progress toward solving a budget problem, especially compared to the economic cost to the whole nation of the policy the shift. These facts should be 'kept clearly in deficits in this budget. Taxation, Spending mind as we look at and the Budget The tax code we have in place, plus the tax proposals contained in the Administration's budget regarding obsolete provisions and improved tax compliance measures, will generate as much revenue over the long term as the government should reasonably be allowed to spend. We project long-term receipts of between 19 and 19-1/2 percent of GNP between 1983 and 1985 under our proposals. These percentages would rise slowly thereafter with real economic growth and scheduled payroll tax increases' This compares with 18.7 percent from 1964 through 1974 and 19.0 percent from 1975 through 1979. Receipts were 20 ' 1 and 21.0 percent of GNP in 1980 and 1981, respectively, and will be approximately 20. 3 percent in 1982. Receipts, therefore, will be in line with, or even higher than historical levels. On the other hand, spending, on- and off-budget, is already too high and threatening to go higher. It was 23. 0 and 23. 7 percent of GNP in 1980 and 1981, respectively, and will exceed 24 percent of GNP in 1982. This compares to 19.8 percent from 1964 through 1974 and 22. 1 from 1975 through 1979. We have recommended a decline to just over 21 percent of GNP by 1985, and further declines thereafter. is a general perception that spending and taxes In fact, all we have done so far is to reduce the rate of growth of spending, and we have just begun to see a modest tax reduction. There have been slashed. The personal tax rate reductions in the ERTA are not substantially larger between 1981 and 1984 than the continuing bracket creep and the payroll tax increases of 1981 and 1982. In fact, there was a net personal tax increase of roughly $15 billion in 1981. In 1982, taxpayers will barely break even. Not until 1983 and 1984 will there be real tax cuts for most families, totalling $12 to $15 billion each year. Taxes will rise again in 1985 due to a scheduled payroll tax increase. On the other hand, restraint, spending even under our proposed spending will remain well above long-term averages for several years to come. If major budget changes are to made, they should be in spending levels, not. taxes. Importance of a Stable Tax Polic could It is unlikely in the extreme that tax increases First, they would weaken succeed in balancing the budget. the economy, and be partially offset by slower growth. In Second, they would encourage higher government spending. spite of the fact that the tax receipts of the Federal Government rose nearly $250 billion from FY-1977 to FY-1981, the government ran deficits of nearly $200 billion. the Administration hopes to balance the Consequently, budget by restraining spending and encouraging growth through tax program. a stable incentive-creating Business Taxes Stability in tax policy is essential for private sector Consider the impact of sudden planning and economic recovery. on in the tax law the cost of plant and equipment and changes the related investment decisions. Millions of firms planning billions of dollars of investment decisions must be in a situation of great uncertainty with respect to leasing, ACRS and other provisions. There is no way for a firm to determine whether an investment is practical or not until the tax picture is clarified. The decisions of the Congress regarding ACRS and related provisions have the power to unleash a flood of investment or to choke off tens of billions of dollars of spending on modernization and expansion of plant and equipment. Until the political decisions are made, the economic decisions, and the economic recovery, are on hold. The right decisions will start the economy climbing. The wrong ones will set it tumbling. Taxes on Saving Consider the impact on personal saving of a decision to the third year of the tax cut and indexing. Under current law, over the life of a 10-year bond purchased in 1983, a taxpayer who will be in the 33 percent bracket following the third year of the tax cut would pay roughly one-third of his interest to the government. But. without the third year and indexing, that tax rate would start at, 39 percent and rise within a decade to 44 percent and 49 percent, as the taxpayer's income rises through the tax brackets with inflation. The average of these tax rates would probably be nearly 44 percent suspend At a 10 percent nominal interest rate and 5 percent or percent inflation, this rise in the tax rate would be enough to cut a 2 percent real after-tax interest rate in half, or a 1 percent. real after-tax interest rate to zeros Historically, such swings in the real after-tax interest rate have shifted the personal savings rate by one or even two percentage points' This would be enough to remove $25 to $50 billion dollars per year from the credit markets over the next decade, with obvious adverse consequences for interest rates, investment, and real 6 growth. Furthermore, the potential saver would know as soon as these provisions were repealed what the impact would be on He would react at once, before the rate of return to saving. the bond were purchased, not 5 or 10 years later after having committed money in good faith. Taxes on Labor and Small Business There are those who would preserve the business portions of the ERTA, and cancel most of the remaining individual tax Such a move would be extremely counterrate reductions' I am frankly productive to business as well as to individuals' amazed at the lack of thought behind such proposals' In my years at Merrill Lynch, I came to appreciate the importance of the individual in his or her role as saver, I am surprised that others in investor and entrepreneurs commerce or industry do not appreciate the importance of the individual in the roles of employee and customer. Those who think of business only in terms of large corporations forget the millions of partnerships, proprietorships whose profits are taxed at the S corporations and sub-chapter The decisions of individual level at individual tax rates' are heavily influenced and entrepreneurs these owner-investors by the personal rate reductions and estate and gift tax reforms recently enacted' consider the effect of As for employees and consumers, the tax cut and indexing on the of suspending the third year standard of of the American living the cost of labor and family. Total net output of goods and services in the economy results from the combination of labor and capital. The value added by these two factors of production is reflected in the wages, salaries, rents, royalties, interest and dividends they receive. Value added equals total national income and total net outputs to some, but labor is far and It may come ofas thea surprise two factors. Value added by labor js larger away the two-thirds and three-quarters of the total in most Labor inputs outweigh years for most products and industries. time to remember is It one. to capital inputs two or three labor costs are higher that taxes on labor and the resulting business. extremely damaging to American between 15 years, inflation, bracket creep and payroll tax hikes have sharply increased the pre-tax cost to the firm of giving a worker a one dollar after-tax wage increase. Over the last median income worker now faces 40 percent to 44 percent tax rates on added income. This is the sum of social security and Federal marginal income tax rates, plus state and local is up sharply from the late 1960's, taxes at the margin. would have been roughly 26 percent rates when the marginal A, It to 30 percent. it now costs a firm more than $1.70 to Consequently, a $1.00 increase in the cost of living. for compensate a worker the late 1960's. Without indexing, in 40 from $1. This is up and to $2. 50 or it will rise to $2. 00 by the late 1980's, whether merely COLA's increase, 1990's. wage in the Any higher or a real wage hike, would send taxes rising and tend to push labor costs up faster than the prices the firm receives for its products. Profits, employment, or real wages would tend to fall continually over time in the absence of extraordinary productivity increases. The competitive in the world economy would suffer. position of U. S. labor likely consequence of such a tax situation will be after-tax wage. Labor will absorb a substantial the third The cost of eliminating portion of the tax burden. year of the tax cut and indexing to a wage earner making $20, 000 in 1982 and receiving a cost-of-living increase thereafter would be substantial: $80 in 1983, $203 in 1984, $289 in 1985, and $369 in 1986. This is only the direct cost. The a falling economy, reduced saving, investment and growth, lower productivity and reduced demand for American labor would lower the market wage itself, reducing the family' s real earnings by two or three times the direct cost of the higher taxes. American workers and savers are the primary customers of American business. There is no way such an impact on the real income of its customers would be good for The weaker business. Regulatory Reform emphasis on the importance of the structural reof our tax system is consistent with this Administration's general regulatory reform program, the goals of which are also to promote savings and investment and to reduce the costs of government regulation for all sectors of the economy. The Administration's efforts are nowhere My forms clear than with regard to the financial system, where in past years an outdated regulatory system has caused the redistribution of funds out of depository institutions to institutions offering new financial products and services. Thus, to assist our troubled thrift industry, the Administration has supported legislation to remove or lessen more restrictions which prohibit thrift institutions from exercising broader lending powers and would permit, through separate subsidiaries, banks to compete in certain securities activities. Further, as a member of the Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee, I have been involved in the process of removing interest rate limitations on depository institutions so that they can compete equally to obtain funds with which to support their vital lending functions. In addressing the earnings losses of thrift institutions, a variety of programs have been proposed which would involve costly temporary infusions which would increase the Federal believe that Federal regulators now have the necessary powers to assist troubled institutions and that subsidy programs are not necessary. We have focussed on structural changes to give the industry the ability to be healthy in changing economic circumstances. budget deficit. We Importance of a Stable Monetary Policy The President's original economic program included the recommendation that money growth be gradually reduced to a noninflationary pace. During the past year, the Federal Reserve made significant progress toward that goals Fourth quarter to fourth quarter, M1B grew by 5 percent in 1981. December to December, the rate was 6. 4 percent due to rapid money growth at year's end. Compared to the inflationary rates of monetary expansion in the past -- 7. 3 percent in 1980 and an annual average of 8. 0 percent in the preceding three years -- this is a substantial deceleration in money The Federal Reserve's tentative target ranges for growth. 1982, 2-1/2 to 5-1/2 percent for Ml, represent continued money growth and the Adminisprogress toward noninflationary that general policy. original recommendation was that the The Administration's rate of money growth gradually be cut in half by 1984 from the average 7. 8 percent rate of the prior four years; this is the The assumption that we built into our economic projections. deceleration that has actually occurred was initially much of the planned reduction more rapid -- almost three-fourths in the first year -- until end-of-year increases in money growth rates raised the level of M1B above the lower end of last year's target range. tration fully supports 10 This more rapid deceleration of money growth has economic consequences -- some good, some bad. It is leading to a faster reduction in inflation, but it also means reductions in real output, employment, and real income. Lower inflation and lower real output mean lower GNP and lower Federal tax revenues. Lower inflation also means lower Federal outlays on indexed programs, but only with a considerable time lag. In the interim, It is amply clear from history, both here the deficit widens. if not monetized, do not produce deficits, and abroad, that rate of inflation is a partial lower the Indeed, inflation. deficit. current of the cause Recognizing the short-run costs and the long-run benefits inflation, the Administration remains committed controlling of of slow and steady money growth over the long run. its to goal Given that goal, we supported money growth in the middle of the Federal Reserve's M1B target range in 1981, and we support money growth in the upper third of the Federal Reserve's tentative Ml target range for 1982. There are those who are urging the Federal Reserve to its goal of a steady and moderate growth rate of the They believe that faster money growth would money supply. depress interest rates. History does not support that view, as the attached charts show. abandon For many years, it has been apparent that inflation is the main factor determining the level of interest rates. Excessively rapid money growth in the past has brought about the current high levels of interest rates. As inflation has risen or fallen in the past, interest rates haved moved in step. In the last year or two, however, interest rates have risen relative to the inflation rate. This may be due, in part, to the unusual volatility of money growth rates since 1980. In the last two months of 1980, Ml fell at an annual rate of 1.4 percent per year, after a sharp rise in the previous five months. All of the growth in Ml in 1981 occurred in the first four months of the year, when it grew at a 14. 2 percent annual rate, and the last two months of the year, when Ml growth was at a 11.6 percent rate. In the interim, Ml was fairly flat. In the six months from April to October, the net change was a decrease of 0. 2 percent, annual rate. . Early 1982 saw a very rapid increase in the money supply January, followed by a levelling off in February. Currently, the level of Ml is $4 billion above the target range for 1982. The rapid growth of money from November through 11 through January was accompanied by rising interest rates, rates that had the dramatic decline in interest been under way since September. reversing The evidence Volatile lenders two years is very clear: growth undermines the credibility of monetary controls, adds to uncertainty and and thereby helps keep interest rates high as long-run risk, of the past money seek to protect their principal. Faster growth of the monetary base produces faster growth of Ml and is associated with rising interest rates. Slower growth of the monetary base leads to slower money growth and falling interest rates' Administration strongly supports the Federal Reserve's goal of a steady and moderate rate of growth of the money supply, not because we seek to drive interest rates up, but because it is the only way to bring inflation and interest The announced basis. It is easy to illustrate why the financial markets watch the money supply so closely, and why variability of inflation and interest rates creates turmoil and uncertainty in the bond markets. Old securities must fall in price to remain competitive with new issues as interest rates rise. Conversely, bond prices rise when interest rates fall. Consider the history of the Treasury's 6-3/4 percent 20-year bond issued on October 1, 1973, priced at $99. 50 per $100 of face value to yield 6. 79 percent. Its value over time has fluctuated substantially with market interest rates: rates down on a permanent 9/30/74 9/30/75 9/30/76 9/30/77 9/30/78 9/30/79 9/30/80 9/30/81 latest As interest rates Price 84. 63 85. 69 92. 19 Yield to Maturity 8. 41 8 ' 32 7 ' 59 7. 25 8. 44 9 ' 38 11.37 14.96 13.38 95 ~ 44 86. 06 80. 19 69.69 55. 75 62. 50 and bond prices have become increasingly in recent years, the risk involved in buying bonds This has resulted in greater reluctance to buy has increased. bonds on the part of those who cannot afford a risky porfolio, and the emergence of a risk or volatility premium which has driven interest rates higher than normal relative to inflation in recent years. This is why stability in the rate of money growth and interest rates is crit, ical to the success of our program. unstable APPENDIX Full One way Deficit the impact of the back-to-back Employment to illustrate recessions of 1980 and 1981-1982 on the budget deficit is to This concept examine the high employment budget deficit. has been used in the past to measure the "stimulus" of budget policy, on the theory that deficits increase total spending We reject the notion that deficits per and pump up "demand". se are inherently stimulative. They must be financed by borrowing in the absence of inflationary monetary creation. Nonetheless, the one useful insight the high employment budget does provide is a measure of the fundamental relationship between the current policy level of spending and the current tax code's capacity to generate revenue with the distorting effects of the recession removed. The high employment budget estimates the budget aggregates that would result if the economy were continuously operating at a high level of employment under the tax and spending The proposals contained in the FY-1983 Budget documents. rate at high employment is traditionally estimated unemployment (However, many for this purpose to be about 5. 0 percent. observers feel the real economy has a long-term basic unemployment rate somewhat higher. ) Potential real GNP is assumed to grow 3. 2 percent annually. (We believe this potential growth rate can be incr'eased by proper policies, but have conformed to convention to provide estimates consistent with those of earlier years. ) The CEA has estimated the high employment deficit through FY-1985 on a unified budget basis. (The high employment deficit can be computed on a national income accounts (NIA) basis or on The major differences are the inclusion a unified budget basis. of offsetting receipts from oil and mineral leases and asset sales outlays the netting out of Federal retirement receipts and in the unified budget. ) The figures are available FY-1985: and through FY Receipts Outlays Deficit (-) 81 FY 82 FY 83 FY 84 FY 85 636 644 691 723 702 739 768 793 830 860 -8 -11 -16 -25 -30 is clear from the tables that the major portion of the projected deficits of nearly $100 billion in FY-1982 and FY-1983 is due to the fact that the economy is operating at less than full employment. year-to-year tax reductions result in small in the high employment deficit, and, The phased increments as large or excessively the deficit increase, from $11 to $25 billion, is completed by FY-1984. By FY-1985, high employment receipts grow 8. 1 percent over FY-1984, nearly matching the growth of outlays at 8.4 percent. even in "demand" stimulative. terms, cannot be regarded The bulk of' Savings Flows and How They Fit into the Scenario The following outlines some of the concepts underlying the gross and net private savings figures commonly cited and provides background on the savings numbers consistent with the economic scenario underlying the budget. By whatever savings measure one prefers, projected deficits as a share of savings are less than in the 1974-1975 recession and the subsequent recovery, and are declining. Concepts o Zn the National Income and Product rivate saving is the sum of: Accounts (NZPA), ~ross —the difference between after-tax of the household sector and outlays of that sector for consumer goods and services, interest Personal personal saving payments, etc. income Corporate saving, consisting of depreciation allowances after-tax profits. (This is equivaplus undzstrzbuted lent to the cash flow available to corporations, both to maintain and add to productive assets. Inventory profits are excluded. ) Depreciation allowances of the noncorporate sector including unincorporated business enterprises plus on owner-occupied homes. The ~im uted depreciation latter, roughly $40 billion or about one-twelfth of gross private saving, is the only item in the saving figures which does not represent true cash flow. P "' """— far the larger part of total includes the surplus of state and local governments (largely the surplus of the pension funds for their employees, as surpluses on operating account have been fairly narrow) The and the surplus or deficit of the Federal Government. latter is on a NIPA basis. In the next couple of years, the NIPA deficit will be wider than the more widely cited unified budget deficit (the difference arising from sales of mineral. rights and other transactions that are not reflected in the NIPA but affect the unified budget). Table 1 attached presents historical data on gross savings flows as percentages of GNP. Gross private 0 saving forms by saving in the accounts sonal saving and the undistributed Net private is comprised of per profits of corporate (Profit-type income of unincorporated businesses business. gets into personal saving. ) Depreciation allowances are (The net saving figures are not included in net saving. available cash for represent close to, but do not quite and returns to profits undistributed net investment, as have been allowance~ after are enterprises unincorporated fixed and capital inventories of made for full replacement exclude inventory process. They used in the production profits, and depreciation is on a so-called economic e. , replacement rather than rather than book-basis, or dissavings of government Savings cost. historical ) saving to get total net saving. net private added to can be i. figures are commonly compared with net national or GNP less depreciation allowances). product Thus, depreciation is excluded from both numerator and Table 2 attached presents net savings flows denominator. as percentages of NNP. Net saving (NNP, savings flows, either gross or net, may be by inflows from abroad, which are likely to be attracted by the new tax climate. Domestic augmented In an accounting sense, total gross saving (including any dissaving by the Federal Government) must match total gross investment -- the net additions to the stock of plant, equipment, inventories, and residential structures plus an amount sufficient to replace existing assets that have worn out or become obsolete. In any year, investment to replace existing assets far exceeds net additions to the stock of productive assets. Similarly, total net saving must equal net investment. Gross Savings Flows in the Scenario Savings flows consistent with the economic scenario underlying the 1983 Budget were worked up by the CEA. They were, . of course, forced to fit within the constraint of the total uses of savings -- overall investment response to the rate of return changes in the ERTA plus Federal, state and local deficits and foreign flows. The breakdown between corporate and personal savings within the totals can be affected by dividend payout assumptions, capital intensity assumptions across corporate and non-corporate businesses, etc. In keeping within the totals, personal savings rates appear to have come out. a bit low by historical standards. estimates yield substantial private savings flows, they do not appear to be out of line with the sum of normal year-to-year growth, the business share of ERTA and historical responses by individuals to tax reductions. The although Historically, gross private saving has averaged about 16-1/2 percent of GNP. The peak ratio in the postwar period was 18.2 percent in the recession year of 1975. The next highest ratio was 17.5 percent in 1967. (See left-hand column of table 1 attached. ) o Gross Private Saving as a Percent Bud 1956-65 1966-75 1976-80 1981 GNP et scenario 16.3 16 6 16 ' 7 ~ 16.4 17.2 projected 1982 1983 1984 18 ' 5 19 ' 1 The impact of ERTA on gross private saving can roughly be estimated by calculating saving on the assumption that the historic 16-1/2 percent share of GNP had been maintained and comparing those numbers with the higher saving flows projected in the new scenario. The implication of these calculations is that gross private saving in the new scenario in 1985 is $101 billion more than if old saving patterns prevail. o Gross Private Level Level Saving Di f f erence Tax at 16.5% from Cut Increase of GNP Budget Budget ERTA — billions of dollars -----------) (--------— in Calendar Year 1981 1982 ] 983 1984 of actual projected II 480 542 651 742 Yearly 62 l09 91 521 581 641 21 70 101 58 115 151 Added Savings as o f ERTA 6 = 4 (percent, 36 61 67 5 ) total saving flows, including government surplus, note that increased government deficits (dissaving) resulting from a tax cut have no effect on total saving if those tax cuts flow directly into increased private saving, as the funds from ACRS, which are recorded as retained earnings, might, be expected to do. Of course, private saving may increase by more or less than any tax cut, depending on responses of households and businesses to changes in after-tax real rates of return on prospective In the mid-1960's, personal savings increases, investments. of above average income growth, exceeded result as a partly tax rate reductions for three the marginal 70 percent of the exceed tax reductions in the fourth to rising years, The thereafter. personal savings rates in the and year scenario assume a savings increase averaging roughly 45 percent of the personal tax cuts from 1982 to 1984. In terms of of Gross Private Saving in the Budget Scenario Composition rise in business The saving reflects: recovery of the profit share (before allowance for retention of a large portion of those increased profits, rather than their distribution in dividends. A ACRS) and 0 2. ACRS and other tax changes which reduce profits taxes by about $10 billion in CY-1982, $19 billion in CY-1983, and $27 billion in CY-1984. 3. rising stock of capital. path of the personal saving rate is as follows: The The depreciation thrown off by a Personal Saving Rate (4) Budget scenario 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 5~6 5'3 6. 7 projected 7'0 6. 1 tl II The dip in 1984 was conditioned by overall constraints imposed on the forecast, and appears to be an understate- Personal saving available to households is related to prospective real after-tax rates of =eturn; these should be vastly improved from returns available during the 1970's, and higher in 1984 than in 1983. Personal savings rates averaged 7. 6 percent from 1965 to 1975. ment. Private Savings in the Scenario Net saving figures indicate resources available to increase the stock of productive capital after allowance has been made for its maintenance. Net o As indicated by the figures in the left-hand columns of table 2, ratios of total and net private saving to net national product (NNP) were severely eroded in the late 1970's. In 1981, net private saving was 6. 1 percent of NNP compared with 8-3/4 percent during the late 1960's. The scenario shows that late 1960's ratio being restored, though not surpassed. private saving as percent of Net NNP o Federal deficit as percent of net private savings plus SSL surplus 1956-65 1966-75 F 1 8' 6 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 7. 6 8.9 6. 2 6. 1 -35. 0 1982 projected 1983 1984 7 0 8'7 8. 8 -45. 0 -32. 0 -28. 0 2'8 -14.5 -10 ' 9 -53.8 -39.0 7' 7 7'3 -30 ' 0 -17 ' 9 6' 9 6 7 8' 6 ~ -31.8 ~ column of table 2 and the tabulation on the prior page show the ratio of the NIPA Federal deficit to the total net private savings plus supluses (if any) of That ratio hit a peak of 54 state and local governments. percent in 1975 ' As indicated on the prior page, that ratio in the scenario for 1982 never approaches the 1975 figure, and ratios for 1983 and 1984 stay below respective figures for 1976 and 1977. The right-hand Gross private saving as percent of 1981 actual 16.4 17.2 18 5 19.1 ~ private as percent Of GNP Administration 1982 1983 1984 Net saving DRI 16.3 16.7 17.7 18.4 NNP Administration 6-1 7. 0 8. 7 8 8 ~ DRI 6. 0 5. 8 7. 0 7. 6 GROSS SAVING AND INVESTMENT LEVELS 1979 Gross Private Personal Business Saving 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 434. 1 478. 7 542. 0 650. 7 741.8 86. 2 101.4 106.6 150.8 171-7 163.4 313.9 332. 7 372. 1 391.3 479. 0 578. 4 400-0 PE RC ENT S OF GNP Gross Private Personal Business Saving 16 ' 6 3' 6 13-0 16 ' 5 3'9 12 ' 7 16 ' 4 3~6 12 ' 7 17 ' 2 4.8 12.4 18 5 ~ 4 9 ~ 13-6 19.1 4 2 14.9 ~ Table 9EKEIT C' tOXtAIE fLUO 4LL FCRCEÃT % ICT OATXOIAL ItOOOCT ~oeeooooeoeeoeoeoeoooooeeooeoos«see«oooo«oooo«osoeooeoeoen ltt40NAL CORPORATE STATE 6 lCCJL MRf&L TOTAL JRZVAIE ttAT tOI4 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 ttSA 1955 tt56 1957 le54 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1+$6 1967 1964 1969 1970 1971 Ao61 5«N T024 T«24 L43 10«32 fe'Ft te79 L03 6«CI 5«60 fe67 fo59 5«AS Oo96 410 434 tsT1 L33 Re I3 L65 2e14 ~ lT Oeef 11 «443t 3o 16 Ae Ae 53 R«T5 5«29 2«50 2«57 2« 15 5«AS 5«51 5«04 0«50 2 51 3s60 Reft 2 56 SoST Rs 10 S«SA LTR To42 T«49 So 40 ~ TT Rs02 7«53 7«57 4 49 A«27 2«62 A. 2«6t 3o53 Cod 7s31 fo44 Te43 lL10 ~ OA foR to13 LT5 3«1t a isSt 3e Ti 4«01 . 5 05 Oo06 420 3e IC «le 12 3s 50 ~0«15 ~0«01 «tolf «O«33 «te41 Os' ~35 W34 4«54 ~10 0«01 «0«04 0«09 Oe04 A«04 Oe'1T Oe 00 OoOT 2«1A «Ltt tQCtAL tRRo ll 3ts 12 «1LOO 5'le 35 RLOS «tio63 «Rf s32 ~RO«4 55«C'l l«54 0«57 ~53 ~26 Oo66 ~41 ~42 a.00«050456 tteAt fo30 «3Ae90 «3«30 te55 «1'lo07 «tOe12 0 40 «6«01 Oo43 ~ L61 10s02 3«30 ~ 72 ts59 L15 ts77 10 09 5o 1T CoOA A«60 O«05 To 94 Oo72 5«23 3oit Oe01 T«37 Te40 A LRt «lo37 LSO 4 17 6« 14 2«6T 1« 63 Rs 32 0«17 6 43 Oo26 «2«RA «RL60 7«AO '7«TO LRT 2«43 «le «tfoAO 9«44 to20 197' fs23 ltFS ttF6 'T«59 Os44 1«25 i« 1 1 0 52 5 37 Toft ttFT 1974 C«RT T«3A 6 e3 197'9 Ltl 'Ts24 t940 ~o45 5«04 C«72 Co23 LOO 1972 1973 ' 11o29 '12s 36 4691104 «nneeeeoeoeen 1941 1951 1955 t!54 1!60 1961«1965 t966 1970 ttf 1«t 975 1976«t 980 L52 452 ~s29 70 L53 Ro 6T 456 le03 2s09 2«39 4 74 5«35 3«03 Rot9 3s95 3«99 A« 33 ~e10 nse 2 T3 449 IJtE lo90 Nee «Ostl Oo 39 teOT t«63 i«50 te2% 1 ~i4 16 ~25 4 AT AoTA 0 OS 5«AC fo05' L75 L37 3«T3 Oo06 Oo71 Ce1 ~ 6 99 3o29 2«19 2 61 . L14 io34 «Oo IC 12o9~ «t?stf «A AO «Oo49 &o 94 «tOstl W«TT «l«51 ~69 «30«OI «'lf o49 «4«62 ~35 ~6A At «0«CA W«15 «R«03 «RRs AA «RCo 1 3 ~ 3«4 4«69 inn Ro62 Llf 56 «1L04 4«64 «jSo03 «31s94 TEAR A 2 67 L'll 0«94 toAO 5 1T So t9 T«57 «le 40 &o75 RA To43 T«41 7s33 «O«26 te 3i 0«01 a ~19 ~Oo 37 Aoft ' Budget Deficits in Relation to GNP* Percent 1 975 1 976 1 977 1 978 1 979 1 980 1 98 1 Actual + On and off budget as percent of fiscal year GNP. 1 l I I 982 1 983 1 984 1 985 Projected 1 986 1 987 Budget Fiscal Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 actual 1982 projected 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Notes Deficits in Relation to Deficits (Bil. of dols -53. 2 GNP Percent of ) -3 ' 6 -4 ' 5 73 ~ 7 -59. 2 -2. 9 -2. 8 -73. 8 -78. 9 -2 ' 8 -53 ' 6 -1.7 -40 ' 2 -2. 9 -118.3 -107.2 -97. 2 -82 ' 8 -77. 0 -62. 5 Figures include off-budget GNP -3 ' 8 -3. 1 -2 ' 6 -2. 0 -1.7 -1.3 entities. 3/23/82 Interest Rates and the Relative Size of the Deficit Percent 15 I I I I 10 3-Month +r pg I I I I Treasury Bill Rate I I I I & r Q Deficit as a Percent of GNP* 1 956 1 958 1 960 1 962 1 964 1 966 1968 1970 Fiscal Year 1 972 1 + Federal surplus or deficit includes off-budget items. Points below zero line represent surplus as percent of GNP, points above line a deficit. 974 1976 1 978 1 980 Projected Borrowing Requirement in Relation to Private Saving Billions of Dollars 700 600 :;:.":::::":;~ Federal Borrowing ':"':":::::Requirements 500 Gross Private Saving 400 300 200 ~~ 1,1',1 111 ~ ~~ e 11 sess ~ ~1'1 '1'1 ~ ~ 1111 100 CA 'CVe, 1111~ ~ ~~ 1' Veo '1V 11 jlaaaaCCCa a 11 Ya 11CA Yeas' 1 jVasaC a ~ ~1~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1111 1975 satanas CCA oP+VoCaa atat11 Ao op» ~ C1st A Ce ~ 1\ \essa +CjaoCCCga\Yoaas 11 111 ~~ a~ asses 1111 Ca 1YCo YotArj11 0 1V ~~ 1976 111 oee 1aeotot ~ 1977 re 1978 1979 C \ a \ \ \ 11s11 1980 1',1 1Va ~ ~111 ~~~ ~ ~ootAe~ 1st ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~\Va ~ 1981 ~ ~ 11\ 11 'A' ~ VA;A'a ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~oC ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~11 Y,~ ~ ~ ~ C 'o~ 'el% ate ~ ~ A 1, Ass 11 ~ og ~~ 1982 'I% ~~ 11 ~ ~~ ~ 11 ~ 11~ ~ A'o +a 1C 11 ~~~~~~~ 11at taeaaasaaa 'A ~ ~ 1983 1984 Projected Actual Fiscal Year + Total budget deficit including off-budget entities. Note: Saving flows do not reflect surpluses of state and local governments three srl (' e, 'e+Ve Ce',1 e', ~~ or inflows March 24. 1982 Projected Borrowing Requirement Fiscal ~ear 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 actual 1982 projected 1983 1984 Gross in Relation to Private Saving Federal deficit including off-bud et ---billions of dollars---53. 2 253. 4 295 ' 6 73 7 -53.6 309. 8 -59. 2 347. 4 -40. 2 392. 2 -73.8 423. 0 -78. 9 462. 3 private savin ~ 523 624 712 -118.3 -107.2 -97. 2 Deficit as share of savin percent -21.0 -24. 9 -17.3 -17 ' 0 -10.2 -17.4 -17.1 -22. 6 -17.2 -13.7 3/23/82 Consumer Prices tpercent change. from year earlier) percent 15 uSVV ii '4l ee tsetse ee sl 12 AII Items ll V I 10 'l ,ss' S~ vest ill lest eet esses . ill Vi tet ~ il ssss e Vll" t Excluding Food and Energy t ~ ll stti 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Producer Prices percent (percent change from year earlier) 16 15 Finished Goods 14 i ! s, 13 12 hemi t 10 t C ~ I I ~ I ~ I ~ ~ I ~0 +i ~ \+ ~ Excluding Food and Energy E' ' ~ ~ t /II' '~ '~ +%I 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Current Law Tax Reduction vs. Quick Fix Alternative Worker with $20, 000 in Percent 1 0.5 Wage Income in 1982 Rising with Cost of Living Effective Tax Rate 1 1 0.07 ~P 0.0 9.80 ~W 9.51 Quick Fix ~t' 9.19 9.0 888 ~~ r~ 8.5 8.0 Current Law 1982 1983 l984 1, 1982 tax 1985 rate reduction Quick Fix alternative leaves the July but cancels the July 1, 1983 tax rate reduction and indexing. in 8.24 8.24 1986 1987 place, RATES OF CHANGE OF MONEY AND PRICES Percent a II', GNP Deflator tj I 10 I I I I I I::; \ Il l 1 /' l 't 10 II "I 't t I I I I +arr I M1B Trend (4 r~l- J 1957 r I 'l~ 0 & -' v~, i I I I I 1i 'l I iv I I & J~ 0 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 Four-quarter rate of change; g/ Twenty-quarter rate of change; data prior to 1st quarter Latest data plotted: 4th quarter g1 1964 are M1. January 27, 1982.A164 M| VERSUS TARGET RANGE 470 5'/a 460 '/o e ~e 6 450 ee 5'/o e ~~ e ee ~ e e ~e ~ ~ ~~ ~e ~e e~ e e e 440 6.0'/o ee e e e ~ ~e e e Actual e e' ~ ~e e' etc' e ~ ~e ~ ee 'e ~~ ~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ e~~ ~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~e e + e ee 430 e e 420 e e ~ ~ ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~e e e e e ee ee e ~ ~~ 410 1 980 "Weekly Averages-Seasonally 1981 Adjusted 1982 2 '/~ o/o INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION Percent 15 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 10 ~ 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~o ~~ ooo ~ oo ~ oooO o~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~o 63 ~ ~ ~~ Inflation Rate* 65 67 69 ~ Growth from year earlier in GNP deflator. Plotted quarterly. 71 73 75 77 79 81 January 21, 198'J.A161 CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY MONTHLY Percent $$$$ ~ $ ~ $ ~ $ ~ $ ~ $$$ ~ ~ $ ~ $ ~ $ ~ $ ~ $$$$$$$$$$ ~ $ ~ $$$ ~ $ ~ as$$$$$$$$$$$$ ~ 1.5 M$ W 1.0 ~ $$$$$$$ ~s eaeeeeeesseeseesassaaaassass sssssssssssssssssesseassasa R ~ aasssass ~ aaaaeeaaaaaaeeaeaa aasaaeeseese ssssese ~ eel 0 W W R H R ease 1978 1979 ~ eaaaasaaaaaasaaseae 1980 esaeeaaaaeasaaaaeeaaaaeaaaaeseas 1981 Quarterly Rates of Growth of Monetary Base and the Money Supply (M1)* Percent 16 14 12 Monetary Base (St. Louis) 10 \ I I I l~ I j r+ 8% I I I I 4% 0 0% 1979 1980 1981 Weekly *Quarterly growth rates based on four-week averages compared with four-week averages thirteen weeks earlier, at annual rates. Latest week plotted: March 3 for M1, March 10 for monetary base. NOTE: Monetary Base data do not reflect recent revisions in the series by the St. Louis Federal Reserve. 1982 Base Growth vs. 3-Month T-Bill Monetary 18 I I I I I I g 7 y4s 3-Month Treasury Rate (right scale) Bill h, ~ I I r~ \ 6 lpl I Monetary Growth~ 14 Base~ (left scale) 20 31 JAN +52 26 FEB 26 MAR 22 APR 20 MAY 17 16 12 JUN JUL AUG 1981 9 SEP Week Growth on 4-Week Moving Averages - ssnnotaru Rico rlata rln not reflect recent revisions in the series by the MAT'6 10 2 30 27 24 4 7 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB 1982 March 24, 1982 THE THREE-MONTH TREASURY BILL RATE AND GROWTH OF Mt Percent Percent ~ ~ 18 ~ ~ Bank discount rate on 13-week Treasury bills ~ ~ 18 ~ ~0 level 16 16 14 14 12 12 Qv 10 Mu snnustlze d growlh rate over the prevlo us 13 weeks, computed by Iog regressions on time 10 e ~ vv ~v ~ ~ ~ 4~ +vs ~ 0 ~ vv vv ~ ~ ~ ~ vv ~s ~ vvv ~v ~ ~ ~ vvv Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. ~ C Jul. 1981 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1982 6 INTERMEDIATE AND LONG MARKET RATES Weekly Averages ,re~. ~ ~a ~ 18 New Conventional Mortgages ~ ae ~ e w e en e me a aa e ne e ea e ee e ee .J e ~e~ 13 ~e oo L- r ~ ~oooo ~ ee ~ aa e w eoe w, r' +e a a ae a oe e a 17 eo ~ eee ~oe ee „P QP eeeoo oe ~ oo eeo eo e no e A a -y L Cor porates ~ooeo ~ ... erne' New Aa r' ~ P~P 13 Treasury 10-Year Treasury 20- Year hoUgh March qg 10 10 8 Note: Mortgage data plotted monthly Otic e ol Ihe Sacretarr ot Ihe Transom Otrce ot Coremment Fmanang 1981 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1982 Mar 8 trtarch 24, 19B2 SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES Weekly Averages Prime Rate 20 20 Federal Funds 18 18 16 ~0'000 16 0000 ~ 0000000 /0 14 ~0 '0000 14 3 Month Treasury Bill ~ 12 10 00 / Through March Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1981 0000 ce Ine eecrehre re ItNI Treeeere 0000 CC Grnrernmenl Frnencrng Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1982 22 Mar 12 10 of the Treasury apartment FOR RELEASE UPON Narch 30, 1982 ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204$ DELIVERY STATEMENT BY ROBERT E. POWIS DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR ENFORCEMENT DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCONNITTEE ON CRINE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY Mr. Chairman It is and members of the Subcommittee: pleasure to appear before you today in response of the Treasury Department to supply information about bullets capable of piercing soft body armor and the so-called "Devastator" bullet. I am accompanied this morning by Nr. Edward N. Owen, Chief of the Firearms Technology Branch and Mr. Alfred C. Johnson, Senior Firearms Examiner of the Forensic Science Branch, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. Also with me is Special Agent Gary McDermot from the U. S. Secret Service. These gentlemen will be in a position to answer technical questions which you may have ammunition. regarding armor-piercing my to your request shares the concern of the Committee and large number of people who also expressed concern followa TV program regarding the ing recent publicity surrounding "KTW" armor-piercing bullet. Although armor and ordinance experts have been aware that there has been in existence for a number of years many types of handgun ammunition capable of penetrating soft body armor, criminals and persons who would cause harm to others were generally unaware of this situation until the exposure on the television program and the resulting publicity. of The Department a R-706 reaction of most people after the publicity }i.-~t. this bullet must be banned. People at all levels in and out of government voiced a feeling that legislation should be passed or regulations promulgated that would make the manufacture and possession of these and similar bullets illegal. There was a feeling that this would cure the problem. I would submit for the Subcommittee's consideration that the issue is far more complex than meets the eye and that there are no easy answers. wa' The immediate i.. A number of practical problems arise in attempting to legislate against the importation, manufacture or sale of armor-piercing ammunition. I would like to apprise you of the significant problems we see in this effort. An attempt to define projectile-type ammunition as H. R. 5437 would seek to do, invariably includes a wide range of ammunition commonly used for hunting, target shooting or other legitimate and long-established sporting purposes. The task is further confounded by the fact that soft body armor is not designed This is a very to repel any and all armor-piercing bullets. Soft body armor is important fact and is worth repeating. It should not designed to repel any and all handgun bullets. also be noted that serious injury can and does occur even This is by shock though a bullet fails to penetrate armor. transmitted through the vests into the body and may, in a Mr. given situation, be more serious than a bullet wound. I intend Chairman, in my testimony today do not for obvious reasons to identify the numerous speciality cartridges which have the ability to penetrate soft body armor. I would like to point out that we have difficulty with the terminology of H. R. 5437 which would restrict handgun This is impractical bullets rather than complete cartridges. because the performance of a bullet or projectile is dependent the quantity and type of upon a number of factors including propellent power used to assemble the bullet into a cartridge. The performance of a bullet which will not penetrate armor can be changed by varying the quanity and/or type of propellent, so that the same bullet will indeed penetrate Legislation or regulations which attempt to address armor. this problem should deal with complete cartridges rather than mere bullets or projectiles. of the bill is to oroscribe ammunition will Penetrate bullet-resistent vests and as stated, would, previously be to include it likely apparel, available in readily commercial ammunition channels other While such as the intent "KTW" which is not or intended to penetrate soft body currently produced fire rifle-type ammunition. It is likely that much sporting rifle ammunition when fired from a 5-inch barrel, would penetrate soft armor. Therefore, under H. R. 5437, all cartridges for which a handThis would be a monugun is made would have to be tested. mental task. Many sporting rifle cartridges would end up being restricted by this bill. Even though regulations may be prescribed which will list certain restricted ammunition, the physical identification of the restricted ammunition, as opposed to similar cartridges which are not restricted, contemThe testing of ammunition would be very difficult. plated by the bill would be burdensome because virtually all ammunition would need to be tested. Additionally, the bill imported would mandate the testing of all foreign ammunition into the United States. The changing of ammunition designs would create an additional burden under the bill by mandating which armor. Many continuous designed handguns testing. if The purpose of H. R. 5437 may be thwarted ammunition, which although tested and determined to be non-armor piercing, is used in firearms having a barrel length exceeding that of A longer barrel can cause increased muzzle the test weapon. in can which turn, give a projectile from a nonvelocity, the ability to penetrate soft body restricted cartridge armor. In response to the Subcommittee's question as to how quickly regulations implementing H. R. 5437 could be issued, as to how much time would be required to we are uncertain where proposed regulations would be approreach the point for prescribing regulations listing In preparation priate. a testing procedure must be estabammunition, restricted be obtained, test fixtures would lished, equipment must and the acquisition of additional have to be constructed, In addition, barrels specialized space may be necessary. in all needed calibers for virtually all kinds of ammunition would have to be acquired, as well as the ammunition to be tested. Moreover, it would be necessary to consult outside experts to develop test procedures and equipment before regulations are proposed. Based upon the above, it would probably be six months, perhaps longer, before regulations could be proposed implement H. R. 5437. Once proposed, the regulation process This includes a usually takes 60 to 120 days to complete. period, generally 60 days, and time for evaluating review of the proposed regulation, and issuance of the final regulation. It is our judgment that the end product would be difficult to achieve, would include many cartridges that are commonly used for sporting purooses and would invariably fail to include certain cartridges that could, under certain different conditions, be able to penetrate soft body comment comments, armor. respect to "Devastator" or other exploding bullets we cannot conclude at this point in time that this ammunition ooses any more of a serious problem or threat than other However, the Subcommittee may be intertypes of ammunition. ested to know that small arms projectiles containing explosive materials designed to explode on impact already are regulated under existing law administered and enforced by the Department and ATF. Aside from the fact that the ammunition is subject to regulation under the Gun Control Act, the explosive ingredients of such ammunition constitute "explosive materials" under Title XI of the Organized Crime Control Act of 1970 (18 U. S.C. Chapter 40). Among other things, Title XI requires licensing of those engaged in the business of importing, manufacturing and dealing in such materials and permits for others who ship, transport, or receive explosive materials In other words, . a dealer in explodin interstate commerce. ing bullets must be licensed under Title XI and may only distribute the ammunition in interstate commerce to other Furthermore, these materials must licensees or permittees. be stored safely and securely in conformity with Federal is exempt regulations. Although "small arms ammunition" from regulation under Title XI, "Devastator" bullets do not constitute exempt ammunition since their high explosive ingredients are not treated as small arms ammunition With components. In the Secret Service, protective armor is not viewed as a panacea for the inherent dangers associated with Secret It Service protective and investigative responsibilities. is merely a tool to help reduce the incidence of injury to person being protected or an employee of the Secret Service in the event that all other security measures fail. a The Service depends primarily on security arrangements prior to the visit of the protectee to prevent injury to that protectee, i. e. , intelligence gathering, physical security, check points, locks, special lighting, explosives detection, counter-sniper support, magnetometers, etc. The Service has made for a long period of t ime the fact that soft body is not designed to defeat all handgun cartridges. Intelligence regarding utilization or possession of armor-piercing bullets by terrorists groups is classified information. I would like to suggest, Mrs Chairman, the information in this matter be handled in Executive Session. Nr. Chairman, let me conclude by stating in summary that we are not certain that this legislation — H. R. 5437 will be effective in proscribing ammunition which can penetrate soft body armor. We do have a concern about the availability of armor-piercing ammunition in the hands of people who want to harm others' With this in mind, recognized armor the Treasury of some Department of the used primarily several manufacturers armor-piercing bullets have asked these manufac- has contacted more commonly in handguns. known We turers to voluntarily restrict their sales to legitimate law enforcement organizations at the Federal, state and local level and to the armed services. We have asked them The not to make sales to Federal firearms licensees. I do not suggest that response so far has been excellent. this is a full solution to this problem. However, we believe In the meantime, that it is a step in the right direction. we are continuing to explore with the Justice Department We will, of course, report other legislative alternatives. to the Committee if and when we are better able to deal with this issue by means of legislation. have also been asked to comment on H. R. 2280 and 5392, which are bills authorizing the Secretary of the Treasury to conduct a study of handgun ammunition manufactured in, or imported into the United States, to determine which have the capacity to penetrate bulletproof vests commonly used by most enforcement officers. There were previous studies conducted by the Department of the Army for the Department of Justice at the cost of From these studies and others approximately $1. 4 million. and which exists in law knowledge expertise the and from at the Federal, state and local levels, we know enforcement bullets of which the to oenetrate have capacity of a number vests. The as indicated problem arises, above, bul]. et-proof define to what it we wish to is prohibit. in the effort about the value of these bills in light of We have doubts known and whetner already or not the amount of information be sufficient would to do worthwhile a study if S500, 000 indeed is needed. another one We HER. At this time, Mr. Chairman, I or one of my associates from ATF and the Service would be pleased to attempt to answer any questions which you or the members of the Subcommittee might have. leportinent of the Treasury ~ Washlnclton, FOR RELEASE AT 4: 00 P . M ~ O.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 March 30, 1982 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING of the Treasury, by this public notice, for two series of Treasury bills totaling approximately $9, 400 million, to be issued April 8, 1982. Th is of fering will result in a paydown for the Treasury of about $75 million, as the maturing bills are outstanding in the amount of $9, 479 million, including $1, 065 million currently held by Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities and $1, 479 million currently held by Federal Reserve Banks for their own account. The two series offered are as follows: The Department invites tenders bills (to date) for approximately $4, 700 of bills dated January 8, 1982 in the amount of (CUSIP No . 912794 BD 5 ), currently outstanding $4, 929 million, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable . 91-day million, representing 7, 1982, bills (to maturity an additional amount and to mature July date) for approximately $4, 700 additional amount of bills dated October 7, 1982 (CUSIP to mature October 8, 1981, in the amount of $5, 251 outstanding No . 912794 AZ 7), currently million, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable . 182-day million, representing maturity an and series of bills will for cash and in exchange Tenders from for Treasury bills maturing April 8, 1982. Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities will be accepted at the weighted Additional amounts average prices of accepted competitive tenders. Reserve Banks, as agents for of the bills may be issued to Federal to the extent that authorities, foreign and international monetary accounts exceeds the the aggregate amount of tenders for such them held . by aggregate amount of maturing bills The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their par amount will be payable without interest . Both series of bills will be issued entirely in book-entry form in a minimum amount of $10, 000 on the records either of the and in any higher $5&000 multiple, and Branches, or of the Department of the Federal Reserve Banks Both Treasury li-707 . be issued Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D C . 20226, up to 1:30 p .m . , Eastern Standard time, Monday, April 5, 1982. Form PD 4632-2 (for 26-week series) or Form PD 4632-3 (for 13-week series) should be used to submit tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . . Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000 . Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5, 000 . In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with three decimals, e .g . , 97 .920 . Fractions may not be used and dealers who make primary markets in Banking institutions Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities may submit tenders for account of customers, if the names of the customers and the amount for each customer are furnished . Others are only permitted to submit tenders for their own account. Each tender must state the amount of any net long position in the bills being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million . This information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p .m . Eastern time on the day of the auction. Such positions would include bills acquired through "when issued" trading, and futures and forward transactions as well as holdings of outstanding bills with the same maturity date as the new offering, e .g . , bills with three months to maturity previously offered as six-month bills. Dealers, who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million . Payment for the full par amount of the bills applied for must accompany all tenders submitted for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the difference between the par payment submitted and the actual . issue price as determined No in the auction deposit need accompany tenders . from incorporated banks trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches . A deposit of 2 percent of the par amount of the bills applied for must accompany tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company and accompanies the tenders . . Public announcement will be made the Department of the Treasury of the amount. and price range byof accepted bids. Competitive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection' of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves th«ight to accept or reject any or all .tenders, in whole or in parti and the Secretary's action shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500, 000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on April 8, 1982, in cash or other immediately-available funds or in Treasury bills maturing April 8, 1982 ' Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills' Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue the of discount at which these bills are sold isCode, considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income oftaxthe return of the owner as ordinary income. The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated redemption price over the taxpayer 's basis (cost) for the bill. ' The ratable share of this discount is determined by multiplying such discount by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of the bill. If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer 's ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gain. Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series Nos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the public Under amount Debt. )partment of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE ~ Washinc)ion, D.C. ~ Te)ephone 566-2048 March 30, 1982 RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURY'S AUCTION OF 20-DAY CASH MANAGEMENT BILLS $8, 016 million of 20-day Treasury bills to and to mature April 22, 1982, were accepted at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: for Tenders be issued on April 2, 1982, RANGE Price 99. 198 99. 189 — 99. 192 Average Tenders at the High Low OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE Discount Investment Rate Coupon-Issue (Equivalent Rate 14. 436' 14. 598% 14. 544% — — low price BIDS: 14. 75% 14. 92% 14. 87% were allotted 82%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: (In Thousands) Location Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco TOTALS R-708 Received Accepted 000 $40, 28, 500, 000 6, 941, 700 40, 000 20, 000 1, 645, 000 10, 000 407, 300 2, 640 12, 000 35, 000 25, 000 1, 355, 000 619, 000 $31, 637, 000 $8, 015, 640 Yield) iepart~ent of the Vreosiiry For Release Expected at ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-204% on Deliver 9:00 a.m. EST U 31, 1982 March STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE JOHN E. CHAPOTON ASSISTANT SECRETARY (TAX POLICY) DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND OF THE HOUSE SMALL BUSINESS COMMITTEE Mr. Chairman I and Members SAFETY of the Subcommittee: here today to discuss the views of the Treasury Department on guarantees by the Small Business Administration development bonds issued to (SBA) of tax exempt industrial finance pollution control facilities. am Department opposes SBA guarantees of tax control obligations. In addition, the Administration is now proposing that Congress enact additional restrictions on all types of private purpose tax Before commenting upon our particular concerns exempt bonds. with respect to pollution control obligations and the SBA program, I would like to review some of the factors that have caused us to conclude that additional limits are needed on all types of private purpose tax exempt bonds. The Treasury exempt pollution There has been a virtual explosion in the last five or six years in the issuance of private purpose tax exempt This includes bonds issued for single family obligations. housing, student loans, and nonprofit hospitals and colleges as well as industrial development bonds (IDBs). More than $25 billion were issued in 1981, up from $8. 5 billion in 1976. Private purpose bonds accounted for 24 percent of the long term tax exempt, bond market in 1976, but rose to 48 percent in 1981. The Treasury Department estimates that 55 percent of the tax exempt bonds sold in 1982 will be for private activities. The volume of tax exempt pollution control obligations issued for private businesses was $3. 8 billion in 1981, representing approximately 7 percent of the entire long term tax exempt market, and will be an estimated $4. 2 billion in 1982. R-709 largest growth has occurred in small issue IDBs, which allow virtually any business to obtain tax exempt Small issue IDBs financing for land or depreciable property. have been used extensively by the largest corporations in the For example, one of the largest retailing chains country. has used small issue IDBs to finance $240 million of facilities since 1976. Small issue IDBs marketed in 1981 were an estimated $10.5 billion of the total $25 billion of private purpose bonds. Small issues represented 20 percent of the entire long term tax exempt market in 1981, as compared with only 4 percent in 1976. The estimated revenue loss to the Federal Treasury from small issue IDBs alone will be $1.65 billion in fiscal 1982 and will exceed $2. 1 billion in fiscal 1983 unless additional restrictions are imposed. Moreover, we estimate that less than 15 percent of the new investments made in 1981 that were eligible for small issue This IDB financing were in fact financed by that method. means that the potential for future growth in the volume of The small issue IDBs remains enormous. proliferation of private purpose tax exempt bonds— demand for tax exempt bonds by institutional investors and the tax rate reductions and other structural tax changes enacted in the Economic Recovery Tax Act —has contributed to a significant narrowing of the difference in interest rates between tax exempt and taxable bonds. While the tax exempt rate historically has been about 65 to 75 percent of the taxable rate, issuers of tax exempt bonds currently have to pay about 80 to 85 percent of the taxable rate. This erosion of the relative advantage of tax exempt financing has increased significantly the interest costs incurred by state and local governments in financing essential public services and facilities. The increasing volume of private purpose tax exempt bonds has also caused mounting Federal revenue losses. We estimate that the total Federal revenue loss from private purpose tax exempt bonds outstanding in fiscal year 1981 was $3. 22 billion and will be $4. 19 billion for fiscal 1982. The proliferation of tax exempt bonds has made them less cost-effective as subsidy mechanisms for private activities. Tax exempt financing has often been criticized as an inefficient means of granting Federal subsidies. The revenue loss to the Treasury from the income tax exemption is significantly greater than the interest cost savings to users of the bond proceeds. For example, if we assume that an investor in the 40 percent bracket purchases a bond bearing interest at 70 percent of the taxable rate, the Treasury loses $1.33 for every $1.00 of interest savings to the bond user. Even more of the benefit is siphoned off by investors as tax exempt bond rates grow closer to taxable rates, as they have recently. The along with reduced These and other considerations have caused us to conclude that additional restrictions are needed to reduce the growth of private purpose tax exempt obligations. The specific details of our proposal are described in the general and technical explanations released by the Treasury Department on February 26. Copies of those explanations are attached to this statement. special provision for small business under our relating to small issue IDBs should be of particular interest to this Subcommittee. Under the Administration's proposal, small issue IDBs will be retained for businesses that have capital expenditures of less than $20 million over the 6-year period from 3 years before to 3 years after the issuance of the bonds. In addition, no single firm will be able to have over $10 million of IDB-financed facilities at small However, subject to these restrictions, any one time. issue IDBs could be marketed as a part of a composite or umbrella bond issue. These changes will make it easier for small and medium-sized businesses to use small issue IDBs and will prevent the use of small issue IDBs by large corporations that are able to raise funds readily in capital markets without an interest subsidy from the Federal The proposal government. I would now like to discuss the policy considerations relating specifically to tax exempt financing for pollution control facilities and the SBA guarantee program. It is often argued that Federal assistance for construction of pollution control facilities is justified because pollution control requirements are special burdens However, in our view businesses by government. be regarded as part should pollution the cost of controlling and should be reflected in of the cost of producing goods of goods produced by The consumption market prices. techniques that create air or water pollution as a by-product will be excessive if the market prices of those goods do not reflect all production costs. Thus, providing tax exempt financing for investments in pollution control facilities produces undesirable economic distortions, in that it results in a higher level of investment in polluting industries and a lower level of investment in other economic activities. Another result of the subsidy is that part of the cost of controlling pollution is borne by taxpayers in general, rather than by the purchasers of the goods produced. imposed on also Tax exempt financing for pollution control has been justified in the past by the need facilities to assist businesses in bringing existing plants into compliance with Now, however, most control requirements. new pollution pollution control bonds are issued to finance pollution control facilities for new plants rather than existing plants. Thus, the "transition rule" argument for the tax exemption is no longer applicable in the majority of cases. Furthermore, it is difficult in many cases t. o determine what portion of a newly constructed plant constitutes pollution control facilities, particularly if the plant employs new or innovative processes or equipment rather than facilities of a type that have previously been recognized as qualifying for tax exempt financing. This inevitably creates an undesirable bias against new technology and in favor of particular types of pollution control equipment which are recognized as eligible for tax exempt financing. Providing Federal guarantees for tax exempt obligations raises additional problems. Placing the credit of the United States behind an obligation that is exempt from Federal taxation creates a security which is superior in the market to the direct obligations issued by the Federal government. A Federally guaranteed tax exempt obligation also has a distinct competitive advantage over all other tax exempt obligations issued by State and local governments. As a result, Federal guarantees of tax exempt, obligations increase the borrowing costs of Federal, State and local governments. Because of these and other considerations, the Treasury Department has consistently opposed Federal guarantees of tax exempt obligations. Moreover, the Public Debt Act of 1941 prohibits the Federal government from issuing tax exempt obligations directly; and numerous other statutes preclude Federal guarantees of tax exempts in other contexts. Allowing SBA guarantees of tax exempt pollution control obligations would be directly contrary to the policies expressed by Congress in those enactments. Finally, in these times of budgetary constraint, we believe that SBA guarantees of tax exempt obligations would represent an unwarranted duplication of Federal benefits. Both the SBA guarantee and the income tax exemption are implicit subsidies that reduce the interest rate that borrowers must pay. In view of the pressures on the tax exempt bond market and the inherent inefficiencies involved with using tax exempt financing as a subsidy mechanism, we believe that it is appropriate for the Small Business Administration to restrict its guarantee program to taxable financings. I will be happy to answer your questions. 21TAX-EXEMPT BONDS FOR PRIVATE ACTIVITIES General Explanation Current Law The interest on State and local bands issued for piivate activities is generally taxable, with certain exceptions enumerated in the Code. The exceptions include three general categories of tax-exempt revenue bonds for private purposess 1) industrial development bonds that qualify as exempt small issues' 2) industrial development bonds issued to finance certain exempt activities' and 3) certain other private purpose revenue bonds. A State or local gavernment obligation is an industrial development bond (IDB) if all or a ma)or portion af its proceeds are to be used in the trade ar business of a non-exempt person (that is, a person other than a State or local governmental unit ar an organixation exempt from tax under section 501(c)(3) af the Code) and the obligation is secured by or is to be repaid from trade or business property or receipts. Exe t Small Issues: Exempt small issue IDB's can be issued n amounts of $1 million or less for the acquisition, construction or improvement of land or depreciable property The $1 million located in any ane city or county. limitation can be increased to $10 million at the election of the goveaunental issuer provided the aggregate amount af small issues outstanding and capital expenditures tother than those financed with exempt anall issues) of the business in the particular Jurisdiction do not exceed $10 million over. a 5-year period. Current law haposes no restrictions on the type or location of business activities that may be financed with exenpt small issues. Industrial Revenue Bonds For Exe t Activities: Current or terest on law also provides an income tax exemption bonds used to finance certain specific "exempt activities. Some af these bonds are used to provide quasi-. public facilities such as airports and mass commuting facilities, but others are used for strictly private purposes such as industrial parks and pollution control facilities. No limitation exists on the aneunt of these obligations or the locations in which they may be used. exempt, Pu ose Revenue Bonds: Specific statutory ow tax-exempt a xnancing for student current y exempt ons that for tax organizations exemption qualify loa"~ and for The section 5~1(c)(3). principal 501(c)(3) under section organixations that use tax-exempt financing are Private and private non-profit educational non-profit hospitalsaddition, mortgage revenue bonds to finance In institutions. ~her private ~22~ certain owner-occupied housing are eligible for tax-exempt financing through 1983. Reasons for Chance of tax-exempt, bonds issued for users has grown rapidly during the past five non-governmental years. The largest growth has occurred in small issue ZDB's, which allow access to tax-exempt financing for any type of trade or business. Continued growth in the use of tax-exempt bonds for private purposes is expected unless actions are taken to limit their use. The expansion of tax-exempt bonds for private purposes affects the market for tax-exempt securities ae a whole, raising the cost of State and local governments of financing traditional public services' Many of the private activities using tax-exempt financing would not have received direct Federal or local Access to tax-exempt financing is government assistance. offered in almost all political jurisdictions, either by State or local governments or by authorities acting on their behalf. These authorities are often established for the sole purpose of issuing tax-exempt revenue bonds for .private entities and generally serve as mechanisms for avoiding local The volume voter approval requirements. Providing tax exemption private purpose obligations purposes f.n some instances. for the interest may on serve legitimate certain public Current law, however, does not require the showing of any genuine public purpose for the project to be financed with tax-exempt obligations. A requirement that private purpose tax-exempt obligations be shown to serve the needs of the local community would improve the uses of the Federal tax benefit and would limit the volume of such obligations, thus reducing their impact on the market for traditional municipal bonds and on the Federal government's revenue loss. , Tax exemption of interest on bonds issued by State or local governments is an important element of the Federal system of government. However, State and local governments have in many cases become merely conduits through which rivate parties gain access to the tax-exempt bond market. n addition. some local issuing authorities have profited from their ability to pass on the tax exemption by obtaining fees for authorixing bonds for facilities located outside of their own jurisdictions. Private purpose tax-exempt obligations have also been used to obtain substantial arbitrage profits on reserve funds and funds held during temporary construction periods. availability of tax-exempt financing for exempt and other private purposes causes distortions in the allocation of scarce capital resources. The ability to The activities ~23~ obtain a lower cost of borrowing for certain activities, for example, businesses requiring pollution control facilities, through the use of tax-exempt financing creates a bias in favor of investment in those activities. Zn effect, those favored activities, for example, businesses that create pollution, are subsidixed at the expense of other activities. Thus, the allocation of capital investments is based upon government decisions rather than their relative economic Moreover, in combination with the Accelerated productivity. Cost Recovery System (ACRS) provided by the Economic Recovery Tax Act, tax-exempt financing can result in a substantial negative tax or subsidy for qualifying activities. Presently, eligible activities are able to add the tax benefits from ZDB's to the tax benefits from ACRS. Permitting tax-exempt financing for private investments that also qualify for ACRS would allow companies to borrow at tax-exempt interest rates for investments that provide generally tax-free income. Those companies could then deduct 'the tax-exempt interest to shelter income from their other assets- contrast with other categories of private purpose bonds, exempt small issues may be used in limited dollar amounts for any type of investment in depreciable property or )and. Large businesses presently are able to finance numerous facilities nationwide with small-issue ZDB's because .the dollar limit applies only to a single city or countyMany large firms are using small issue ZDB's even though they are able to raise funds readily in capital markets without a government subsidy or guarantee. ~Pro osal Zn tax-exempt limits tax exemption for private purpose currently eligible under section 103 to those issued under the following conditions: (1) The highest elected official or legislative body, for example, the mayor or city council, of the governmental unit issuing the bonds and in which the facility is located must approve the bonds after a public hearing. Alternatively, the public approval requirement could be met by a voter referendum on the bonds to be issued for the particular facility. after December 31, 1985, (2) Zn the case of bonds issued make a contribution or the governmental unit must commitment to the facility financed with tax-exempt bonds. The contribution could take the form of a cash payment, tax credit or abatement, provision of additional services, or payment of the bond issuance expenses with a value on the date the bonds are issued equal to one percent of the face amount of the bonds. Alternatively, the issuing governmental The proposal obligations -24unit can satisfy the commitment requirement by insuring ar guaranteeing the bonds or by designating the bonds as general obligations af the State or local government. (3) The costs of depreciable assets financed with tax-exempt bonds must be recovered using straight-line depreciation aver the extended recovery period used for earnings and profits computation purpases. issue ZDB's will be limited to small businesses. A small business is defined as a business that has capital expenditures of less than Zn addition, $20 million over a six-year period. bonds would not qualify as exempt small issue ZDB's of if the business will have mare than $10 million ZDB's outstanding after issuance af the bands. (5) With these restrictions, small issue ZDB's could be sold as a part of a composite or umbrella issue of (4) Exempt small bonds- bond must be in registered form and information concerning the issuance of the obligations must be reparted by the State or local government to the (6) Each Internal Revenue (7) Restrictians Service- yield from the use of the proceeds af the obligations are extended to reserve funds and funds held during the temporary construction period. Bond costs may not be taken into account in determining the yield for purposes of the arbitrage limitations. (8) Except as indi. cated above with respect to the financial contribution ar commitment requirement. the additional restri. ctians generally apply to private purpose bonds issued after December 31, 1982. Swever, the restrictions will not apply to single-family mortgage subsidy bonds issued before January 1, 1984, since such bands after 1983 will be denied tax~xempt status. Effects af Pro sal on the investment The proposal will impose needed limitations on access to the tax-exempt market for private activities. The volume of tax-exempt financing for private purposes has grown enormously during the past five years. New issues of private purpose tax-exempt bonds rose from $8. 5 billion in 1976 to over $25 billian in 1981, as shown in the following table. The dollar volume af private purpose bonds increased at an annual rate of 25 percent between 1976 and 1481. while public «25» bond volume rose at a 1 percent annual rate during the same period. Private purpose bonds accounted for 48 percent of the tax-exempt bond market in 1981 ccaapared with only 24 percent in 1976. purpose in Private Purpose Tax-Exempt Financing 1976 to 1981 Growth a e Volume of Tax-Exempt Sew Issues s a Sousing Private Hospitals Student Loans Control Issue IDB's Tatal Pollution Small ($ billions) 19 6 1981 $3.0 19 0' 1 2'1 ~ 1.4 ~5 $6 ~ 9 3.5 1' 0 3 8 10 ~ 5 25 ' 7 s a e Annual Rate of Growth t 1981 (In Percent) Between 1976 e 18% 13 58 13 50 25 in private purpose tax-exempt bonds will of tax-exempt financing for traditional governmental purposes and'will reduce the growing Federal revenue loss attributable to the increasing valume of The benefit from private purpose tax-exempt obligations. been a borrawers has to traditionally tax»exempt financing savings of 30-35 percent of the taxable interest rate. The benefit from tax-exempt financing has fallen to 15-20 percent af the taxable rate on 20-year obligations in 1981, due in large part to the high volume of private purpose tax-exempt bonds. Lowering the volume of private purpose tax-exempt bonds vill reduce the interest rates necessary to attract funds to the tax-exempt market, The reduction help restore the benefit . requires business users to choose between financing and the tax savings from the benefits af allowances. The result is to make depreciation accelerated the after-tax cost of capital for businesses using ACRS without taxexempt financing nearly equal to the cost for For example, a firm choosing to those using IDB financing. finance a plant with IDB's after the propasal will have tax of each dollar invested benefits equal to 23-24 percent IDB's. Similarly, for firms without percent 26 with compared ACRS (5-year recovery property), the tax equipment financing 48-54 percent with ZDB s invested will be dollar savings per proposal compared with 49 percent without IDB ' s yithout the proposal the combination of tax-exempt financing, and the investment tax credit for equipment results in savings of 61«67 percent per dollar invested, which future income tax attributabl e to the o f fsets not only the the tax on income from other investments. but also The propasal tax»exempt 5 ~ -28These restrictions on the use of tax-exempt bonds by private entities are consistent with the goals of the Economic Recovery Tax Act. ACES provides tax incentives similar to tax-exempt financing, but does so for all capital investments, not )ust a select group ACRS is, therefore, an appropriate substitute for tax-exempt financing. Sub]ect to the additional restrictions on IDB's generally and small issue IDB's in particular, small issue IDB's would be allowed to be sold as a part of a composite or umbrella issue of bonds. When these bonds are limited to small companies, it is appropriate to permit the marketing of packages of these issues to reduce transaction costs and to provide a degree of diversification that may decrease the risk premiums demanded by investors. Revenue Estimate Fiscal Years 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 l 3' 2 t$ billions) 0' 2 0.3 l. l 2 TAX-EXEMPT BONDS FOR PRIVATE ACTIVITIES Technical Explanation af the Summa Ta insure Pro sal that tax-exempt obligations issued tor private activities serve valid public purposes, the obligations must be appioved, after a public hearing by the highest elected official ar legislative body af the jurisdiction in which the project is to be located or by a voter referendum. For bonds issued after December 31, 1985, the governmental unit must make a financial contribution or commitment to the project. The contribution may be a direct grant, tax abatement, ar provision of additional services having a value of at least ane percent of the face ameunt of the bonds. The financial commitment may take the form of a general abligation of the governmental unit, or primary guarantee or insurance of the bonds. Depreciable assets financed with tax-exempt bonds must be written off using the straight-line method over the extended cost recovery period used for computing earnings and profits. Small issue ZDB's will be limited to small businesses no more than $20 million of capital expenditures during a six;year period and have no more than $10 million industrial development bonds outstanding immediately after that have of the issue. The bonds must be must be reparted to the issuance of the bonds. in registered form and information Internal Revenue Service upon the Restrictions will be placed profits. earn arbitrage on the ability of issuers to Except as otherwise indicated abov~, the additional generally would apply to bonds issued after requirements 31, 1982. Detailed Descri tion December The proposal imposes four additional requirements on State and local governments issuing tax-exempt bonds for private purposes. Private purpose tax-exempt bonds subject these requirements include industrial development bonds (se«ion 103(b) (2) ): qualified scholarship funding bonds (section 103(a)(2)); and bonds issued for use in a trade or business by section ~01(c)(3) organizations (section 103(b)(3)(B)) ~ A fifth requirement prohibiting double dipping" of tax benefits will apply to all industrial development bonds ~ A sixth requirement limits small-issue Mortgage subsidy bonds (section IDB's to small businesses. January lr 1984 (the "sunset" date for 103A) issued before to these requirements. subject such bonds), are nat additional requirement is that the band issue must be approved by the highest elected official or legislative body of the governmental unit hy ar on whose behalf the bonds are issued and in which the project financed by the bonds is to be 1ocated (ar in which the eligible sellers of student loan notes are located, in the case of qualified schalarship funding bands) ~ To satisfy this requirement, bonds issued by or on behalf of a state could be and bands approved by the governor or the State legislaturet be could approved a of city by the issued by or on behalf . the alternative, an As cauncil. mayor or the elected city voter met a by public approval requirement could be referendum on the bonds to be issued for the particular project. Any bonds issued by or on behalf of more than one governmental unit must be approved by each governmental unit involved. The public approval requirement would be an additional requirement af the Pederal tax law and'would not affect the procedures used to approve bonds under applicable The first local law. Prior to approval of a band issue, a public hearing must be held to give members of the public the apportunity to Notice of the comment upon the proposed bond issuancepublic hearing must be given prior to the date the public hearing is held. Similarly, natice must be given to the public promptly after the approval of the .bands. Cenerally, the notice wauld be sufficient if given in the same manner as required for other legal purposes, for example, by Both the notice of the advertising in local newspapers. the notice of of the bond issue and . approval public hearing must describe the facility or activity to be financed by the bond issue and must specifically state the public purpose or purposes that will be served. is that the The second additional requirement governmental unit issuing the bonds must make a financial contribution ar commitment to the project. This requirement will apply to bonds issued after December 31, 1985. A contribution to the facility or project must have a present value equal to one percent of the face amount of the bond. The contribution can take the form of a cash payment, tax credit or abatement, provision of additional services, or The present value of payment of bond issuance expenses. scheduled future contMibutions to the facility or project must be determined by discounting the future contributions by the yield on the bands- The contribution must be specifically earmarked for the facility or project and must be approved by the elected official or legislative bady that ~29~ the band issue. General tax reductions ar regular services provided to all facilities are not counted for this purpose. However, general tax exemptions provided for exempt organixations under State law could be used to satisfy the contribution requirement with respect to pro)ects for exempt arganixations. The governmental unit may nat be reimbursed by the user of the facility for any contribution used to satisfy this requirement. approves As an alternative means of satisfying the second additional requirement, the issuing gavernmental unit can make a financial commitment to the prospect in either of twa The financial commitment requirement could be ways satisfied if the bonds issued are general obligation bonds of the State or lacal government, or if the State ar local government assumes responsibility as the primary insurer ar guarantor of the bonds. ~ third additional requirement is that the bonds must form and the issuance of the obligations by the State ar local government to the Internal Revenue Service. The fourth requirement is related to the unlimited yields issuers presently can earn on private purpase tax-exempt bond proceeds during the temporary construction (section 103(c) (4)). The period and on reserve funds proposal eliminates the exceptions for the temporary construction period and reserve funds for determining whether the bonds are arbitrage bonds. The yield calculation for arbitrage limitation purposes cannot take bond issuance costs into account. The be in registered must be reparted A limitation applying to all industrial development bonds (section 103(b)(2)) is that the costs of depreciable asse4s financed with tax-exempt ZDB's must be recovered using the straight-line method over extended earnings and profit recovery periods (section 312(k), as amended by Section 206 of the Economic Recovery Tax Act af 1981). Assets will not qualify for treatment under the Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS) if they are subject to IDB financing when placed in service by the taxpayer even though the ZDB financing was originally obtained by another person or is Assets qualifying for the investment subsequently paid off tax credit under present law (section 38) will remain even though they are financed with eligible for the credit The allowance for any asset depreciation tax-exempt bondsZDB's tax-exempt shall be the amount determined financed with method (using a half-year convention under the straight-line other than the 15-year real property, property of case in the to value), using the following salvage regard without and periods: recovery 30ACRS Classification 3-year 5-year 10-year 15-year 15-year Straight-Line Period property property property real property public utility property if Recovery IDB Financed 5 years 12 years 25 years 35 years 35 years For depreciable assets that are not completely financed with IDB's the denial of ACRS will apply only to the portion financed with tax-exempt debt. Special rules will be provided for determining which assets are deemed to be financed with IDB's. The final limitation on private purpose tax-exempt bonds restricts the use of small issue IDB's (section 103(b)(6)) to small businesses, defined as those with capital expenditures of less than $20 million during the period from three years before through three years after the issuance af the bonds. In addition, bonds will not qualify as exempt small issue IDB's if the businesy would have more than $10 million of industrial development bonds autstanding immediately after the sale of the bonds (excluding any previously issued bonds redeemed with the proceeds af the bonds in question) The ~ $1 million and $10 million continue to be applicable, disqualified solely because compasite or umbrella issue limitations of existing law will except that bonds will not be they are sold as a part of a of bands- Effective Date Except as otherwise noted with respect to the financial or commitment requirement, these provisions will apply to all private purpose bonds issued after December 31~ 1982, including refunding bonds. However, the provisions will not apply to single-family mortgage subsidy bonds issued before January 1, 1984, since such bonds after 1983 will be contribution denied tax-exempt status. of the TreasurV apartment FPR INMFDIATF Ncishingion, RFLFASE Narch yednesdav, ~ 31, 1982 Contact: SUBMITS GOLD COMYIcSION SFCRETARY RFCAN O. C. o Telephone 566-204' Nary Boswell Watkins 566-204l REPORT TO CONGRFcS Treasury Secretary Donald T. Reaan today submitted the report of the Gold Commission to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives The U. S. in Commission directed the establishment of the Gold 96-389 in order to assess the role of aold in the domestic and international monetary systems and to study the U. S. pclicies related to gold. Secretary Reaan chaired the Commission which included seven members of Conaress, three members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, two members of the Council of Fconomic Advisors and four distinauished private citizens. The Commission held its first of nine meetings on July 16, 1981, and thereafter met on Conaress Public Law a monthly basis. Twenty-three witnesses presented approximately In addition, a number of testimony at two of these meetinas. writter. points of view were submitted bv members of the public. The report consists of an Introduction, which includes the Commission's recommerdations, and four. chapters. Six members of in order to clarify the Commission drafted minority statements their views, and these appear in an amex of. the report. Another annex contains written statements submit. that the public The report may be obtained from Documents, U. S. Government Printina 048-000-00353-2, Phone Number l'202) records of transcripts, all Comr. was invited to of the Superintendent Office, Stock Number 783-3238. The c'etailed ission proceedings, staff includina meetina ard all papers in an annex to the written testimony, to the Commission, are cataloaued report and are available for public inspection at the Library of Cor. aress, the National Archives and Records Service, and the circulated Treasury R710 Department library. memoranda IpartNent of the Treasur V ~ D.C. ~ Telephone 585-204 Ncmshington, STATEMENT DONALD T. BY REGAN SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY GOLD COMMISSION WEDNESDAY, MARCH 31, 1982 As Chairman of the Gold Commission, I have submitted today the report of the Gold Commission to the president of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Although the Commission concluded essentially that not favor a renewed role for gold at this time, it has it did that the Treasury issue gold bullion coins of specified weight without dollar denomination or legal tender status, and to be exempt from capital gains and sales taxes. recommended In domestic policy, the majority concluded that, under present circumstances, restoring a gold standard does not appear to be a fruitful method for dealing with the continuing problem of inflation. In international policy, the majority concluded that it favored no change in the use of gold in the operation of present exchange rate arrangements. Other specific findings and recommendations regarding the policy towards the role of gold in the domestic and international monetary systems are presented in this report. These recommendations represent the views of the majority of the have been included Commission. Minority views or recommendations where appropriate. In many instances, the members of the Gold Commission had differing opinions on the questions raised. This was evident in the lively discussions we had and the many position papers that were written. In spite of the diversity of the group, however, the report represents the product of the Gold Commission as a U. S. Government's whole. like to take this opportunity to thank my colleagues I for devoting so much of their time to serve on the Commission. testif ied who would also like to thank the many individuals I would before and submitted and It written statements to the Commission. has been an honor for me to have chaired to have contributed in this capacity. R-711 this Commission Department of the Treasury FOR RELEASE UPON ~ Washington, O.C. ~ Telephone %66-2041 DELIVERY Expected at 9:30 A. M. , EST Thursday, April 1, 1982 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE DONALD T. REGAN SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON FOREIGN OPERATIONS COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES APRIL 1 Mr. Chairman Thank you and Members for giving me 1982 of the Committee: this opportunity to address you. Mr. Chairman, under your able leadership and that of Jack Kemp, Members of this Subcommittee were able to set aside differences last year in order to enact the first foreign assistance bill in three years and, in the process, further U. S. foreign policy interests. I know the President appreciates what you did. For my part, I admire your achievement. Mr. Chairman, I remember from our hearing last year that you and your Committee prefer to have a give-and-take in your hearing rather than to listen to a lengthy prepared I prefer that myself. statement. With your permission and since Mare Leland, my Assistant Secretary for International Affairs, has already presented our FY 83 request, I will share with you a few ideas which reflect my perspective on the MDBs. R-71 2 as I First, to our budget request which for increased funding for the stress three points: you know would with regard -- calls MDBs, The largest part, of the request is based on preThe viously negotiated international agreements. President has stressed the importance of living up to these agreements. reason for an increase in the request the proposed addition of $245 million for IDA The main --is an increase which is directly traceable to this Administration's decision to reduce contributions in the early years of the sixth replenishment within the context of fulfilling our commitments under the agreement. the trend of our contribution 85, when the replenishments will have been largely negotiated by this Administration, we plan total appropriation request levels of about In the longer is down. term, By FY $1.2 billion annually. Since becoming Secretary, I have met regularly with my counterparts from Japan, Germany, France, and Great Britain. The NDBs represent one of the most visible and concrete examples of allied cooperation in international economic relations -- not just cooperation for cooperation's sake, but because these institutions serve our common interests. Our common long term goal is to build and maintain an international economic system that is open, growing and characterized by increased efficiency and output. We hope and expect that such a system will encourage the development of democratic, pluralistic and free market societies, such as ours. As you know, since last year Treasury has conducted an assessment of the MDBs. Our assessment leads us to that the NDBs can act as catalysts in the economic system and, indeed, references to encouraging private investment and international trade are embedded in the Charters of these institutions. the conclusion international We can see an example of the catalytic role the MDBs can play close to home and in strong support of U. S. for- eign policy goals. The World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank chair consultative groups for the Caribbean and Central America, respectively, which will contribute to the President's Caribbean Basin Initiative. While providing a forum for donor coordination, the MDBs are also expected to provide development assistance in the range of $700 to $800 million annually to the region. In addition to these traditional roles of donor and coordinator, a critically important goal of the MDBs in the future will be to encourage the private sector to invest its ow'n capital and expertise in sound projects. It is in this role, as a catalytic agent in the enhanceinvestment capital and producment of entrepreneurship, tion, that the MDBs can make a significant contribution to economic development. A fair question is how can the Administration be proto the NDBs posing both a reduction in our contributions and continued growth in lending levels. that the NDBs can use their resources by exercising greater selectivity in providing loans, the NDBs can channel financing to those countries that have adopted sound micro and macro economic policies. Financing for countries pursuing ineffective We more are convinced effectively. First, policies should be curtailed, tate, terminated. and, if circumstances dic- Second, the MDBs should adopt effective policies to "graduate" countries from the hard windows, when these countries have advanced to the point that they can rely fully on private capital flows. Similarly, countries that have achieved the requisite level of creditworthiness, such as India, should "mature" from the soft loan windows and should borrow from the hard loan windows. these two policies, we can ensure that By pursuing scarce resources are concentrated on those countries which can best employ them and which are in the greatest need. And we can obtain more cost-effective development financing from the MDBs, while limiting budgetary outlays. The ability of the NDBs to support sound programs will be expanded and enhanced by catalyzing private capital through cofinancing and by working more closely with private investors. Treasury's assessment found indications that past overemphasis on lending targets had eroded MDB effective ness in encouraging sound economic policies. Our message is getting through This is changing. and clear: The World Bank is implementing uation and maturation policies in many years. rigorously its grad- for the f irst time The United to encourage States has minimum worked standards hard in the IDB for realistic user charges in power and transport projects. These user charges will be designed to cover operating and capital costs of these services. States will no longer passively support loans to countries pursuing ineffective economic policies. We vetoed our first loan in the Fund for Special Operations, opposed several other MDB loans for economic reasons and stand ready to oppose misdirected loans again in the future. The United During the course of this year, the Administration for the hard and will be negotiating replenishments soft loan windows of the Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank. We plan to participate fully in these replenishments, but, we will insist Members I realism and restraint in future lending Before this Administration makes any comthere will be thorough consultations with of this Committee and other interested Members. on programs. mitments, understand that Members of this Committee have expressed a strong preference for continuing to include the requirement for paid-in capital in the Inter-American capital increases. believes that reduction or eliminaThe Administration tion of paid-in capital would reduce the budgetary cost of U. S- participation in the MDBs. Reduced levels of paid-in capital would have the effect of bringing MDB lending interest rates closer to market levels and of shifting the program cost from non-borrowing shareholders to borrowers, since interest-free paid-in capital would be replaced by borrowing from capital markets to and Asian support Bank lending programs. Our analysis indicates that the impact integrity of the MDBs would be minimal and by relatively modest increases in financial on the financial would be offset charges. The Congress would retain full control over callable capital subscriptions to the MDBs No U. S. subscriptions to callable capital could be made without approval by the Congress in authorizing and appropriations legislation. Callable capital subscriptions could only be made to the extent that the Congress provides for program limitations ~ in appropriations acts. to stress today that during the course we will keep the Committee's negotiations, of this year's to continue and intend consultations with views in mind this Committee and other interested Members on this issue. However, I want Some have asked how can we maintain sufficient influence to implement our policies when we are limiting our contributions to the MDBs. The United States remains the largest contributor to the MDBs, and our leadership position ensures that our views will We believe our recommendabe given serious consideration. tions are sound and that they reflect not only our national interests, but the common interests of the democratic, capitalist countries, who provide the major share of resources We are committed to pursuing actively to these institutions. recommendations in our assessment and to continuing to be a reliable financial supporter of the MDBs. These factors provide solid foundations pating continued strong influence in these for anticiinstitutions. Last year, this Committee strengthened the Administration's hand in the MDBs by providing the first foreign assistance appropriations act in three years. You deserve the credit for some of the changes we are seeing in the MDBs. I hope we can continue to rely on your support this together we can shape the MDBs into effective and vigorous proponents of market-oriented econo- year, because working mic growth. epartment of the Treasury ~ Washington, FOR IMMEDIATE D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 March RELEASE RESULTS OF AUCTION 31, 1982 OF 7-YEAR NOTES of the Treasury has accepted $3, 253 million million of tenders received from the public for the 7-year notes, Series D-1989, auctioned today. The notes will be The Department of $6, 142 7, 1982, issued April April and mature 15, 1989. coupon rate on the notes will be 14-3/8' of accepted competitive bids, and the corresponding prices at the 14-3/84 coupon rate are as follows: The The range interest yield Highest yield Average yield Lowest Bids 14. 38% 1/ 14. 45% 14. 42% at the high yield Tenders were Prices 99. 957 99. 655 99. 784 allotted 40%. TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED Location Boston Ne w York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury Received 26, 066 $ 5, 206, 397 21, 300 40, 710 37, 134 25, 086 510, 775 61, 317 12, 882 17, 691 10, 051 171, 291 1, 278 (In Thousands) ~Acce ted 13, 066 2, 816, 847 14, 700 25, 710 34, 834 24, 586 137, 175 54, 017 12, 562 17, 686 10, 051 90, 691 1, 278 $3, 253, 203 $6, 141, 978 includes $535 The $3, 253 million of accepted tenders million of competiand 718 $2, million of noncompetitive tenders investors. tive tenders from private to the $3, 253 million of tenders accepted in Zn addition the auction process, $75 million of tenders were accepted at the average price from Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign monetary authorities for new cash. and international 1/ Excepting 1 tender of $10, 000. Total s R-713 of the Treasury Oepartment FOR IMMEDIATE ~ WashinQton, D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2640 RELEASE REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE JOHN M. WALKER, JR. ASSISTANT SECRETARY (ENFORCEMENT AND OPERATIONS) DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE CONNECTICUT BUSINESS INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION AND CONNECTICUT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AT THE ANNUAL CONNECTICUT BUSINESS DAY CONFERENCE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS THURSDAY, APRIL 1982 1, As one whose home for 18 years was in Connecticut, it gives great pleasure to speak to you tonight. As both neighbor to New York City and gateway to New England, Connecticut provides a fine mix of values which are manifested in its business life a dynamic, farsighted appr'oach to business tempered by oldfashioned Yankee realism. me I should also add that few states equal the Nutmeg state in physical beauty -- from Sharon and Lakeville in the Northwest to Mystic in the East. And your institutes of higher learning including one in New Haven where I spent four years -- are second to none. In sum, you have chosen a great place to work, to live and to raise your families. Connecticut has changed a lot since I was a boy in Fairfield County in the early 1950's, as has the nation. In fact, the pace and scope of change during recent years is sufficient to validate the observation by the Greek neglected to say was that change occurs What the philosopher or chance by choice. It is that last factor either by -that is the subject of my remarks this choice change by evening. choices by the American people One of the most signifcant a than with the election of Ronald Reagan. year more ago was made "enough" electorate the said, enough of erratic when That was -- R-714 -- enough of inflation -- enough of tax rates -- enough of and discourage investment incentive that penalize hinders productivity absorbing resources government that by from the private sector -- and enough of government that sacrifices initiative on the altar of regulation. The elececonomic policies torate voted for change. In making that choice, the American people did not merely for another, or place a new tenant swap one Administration in the White House; they demanded a new course in the affairs of the nation. The new It is It is intended intended we have plotted is for the long term. to produce sustained economic growth, and it will to produce jobs -- and it will. It is intended course objectives that the Administration sought its program for economic recovery. when it first That program emerged from a series of choices. have chosen to seek a balanced budget on the backs taxpayers; we chose instead to cut back the growth spending. ment We nues; them . we We devised could of the of govern- could have allowed inflation to increase Federal revechose instead -to cut personal tax rates and index our way We could have chosen the quick f ix of inflating into prosperity; we chose instead to encourage the Federal Reserve in a policy of slow, steady growth in the money supply. Finally, that efforts we the marketplace; chose to reduce regulatory intrusions into and we are well on our way to success in The cumulative effect of all those choices is a policy that has begun to turn the economy back to the producers of this country -- to those who can generate growth, and jobs, And we have begun to see some of the and real wealth. results of that policy. For the first time in seven years, inflation has actually declined. Some say this is an anomaly -- a transitory phenomenon. believe that there If this is true,the wemonths ahead -- more in those phenomena progress toward our goal of strong, will be more of indicators of real economic growth. ~ For example, for the first time in years, union contract settlements are beginning to reflect -- at least in part -- the That has been manifest lowering of inflationary expectations. automobile the Those settlements industry. in most recently are important portents of declining inflation. are rapidly approaching a new economic environment. have not as yet broken the back of inflation, we at least have it pinned to the mat. We And, if we inflation will stay pinned even during the economic is beginning to emerge. In spite of the continued decline in the current quarter, there are some hopeful signs. Excess inventories are being drawn down at a rapid rate. This is typical of the last stages of a recession. Retail sales are rising. Housing starts are and durable goods orders have leveled off. up slightly, Granted, as Aristotle said: "One swallow does not a summer make. " And one or even two positive indicators does And recovery that Nevertheless, as spring continues, we not make a recovery. will see more swallows in the form of positive indicators, and we will come into the summer with the recovery under a full head of steam. All this, of course, is predicated on prompt, deliberate Cong'ressional action on President Reagan's budget. Adlai Stevenson once said: " . .there are no gains without pains. " made the tough choices that went into our This Administration budget proposal. to accept its portion of pain, Now it is time for Congress and make the fiscal choices that will stimulate economic growth would The Administration and maintain the nation's security' that do not try to balance welcome bipartisan alternatives the budget on the backs of the taxpayers, or impede our ability to defend the nation. the misgivings of members of Congress and We understand others who are worried about budget deficits. is Let us be clear from the outset; this Administration finance deficits deficits. Like taxes, troubled by deeply excessive government spending and absorb resources better left in the private sector. We are opposed to them as a matter of principle, and intend to see a budget in balance ultimately. But the deficit must be put in some perspective; it cannot Granted, be viewed in isolation from the rest of the economy. the dollars, in projected and terms of sheer isolation in viewed the history. is largest in our deficit budget ~ put that does not hold true if you put the deficit in the context of the total economy. For fiscal 1983, we are projecting a deficit that amounts to 3. 1 percent of the gross national product. The fiscal 1976 deficit amounted to 4. 5 percent of the gross national product. In fact, a number of other industrial nations during the last several years have consistently posted deficits greater than ours when compared to their gross national products. And I include among them West Germany, Japan, Italy and the United Kingdom. deficit for 1981 amounted to 2 percent of our This compares, by the way, with products West Germany — 4. 8 percent; Italy — 9.4 percent; the United Kingdom — 5. 0 percent and Japan — 3.6 percent. Indeed, Japan has in the past run a deficit as high as 5. 5 percent of its GNP Our budget gross national ~ Japan's experience with inflation, interest real growth stands in marked contrast to ours. The reason is primarily its stable monetary policy and high rate of saving. In 1980, for example, gross saving as a percentage of Japan's GNP was a little more than 30 percent. Our gross saving rate, on the other hand, was 18.3 percent, slightly more than-half that of Japan. Deficits must be financed, either by borrowing a partion of national savings, or by inflationary money creation. Japan has a high enough savings rate to finance a deficit with enough savings left over for investment and growth without rapid money creation. Consequently, Japan's inflation rate and interest rates rates Nevertheless, and have remained low. The U. S. on the other hand has done too little saving and The result has been allowed too much money creation over time. slow growth, rapid inflation and high interest rates. We intend to change that. the rate of saving in the United States has We believe that goal has been one of our major objectives. been achieved, and that as a result, private saving will be several times the total borrowing requirement of the Federal Government in fiscal 1983 and fiscal 1984. Increasing projected deficits are symptomatic of to date anything, it is the budget, while We believe the best way to balance standards, is economic growth that through living raising enlarges the tax base. We want to see growing payrolls that If current and a lack of economic growth ~ will contribute to Federal revenues, not higher taxes declining number of workers and businesses. on a The Congress has tried time and time again to balance And it has not accomplished the budget with tax increases. the objective. Between 1974 and 1981, despite several legislated tax reductions, overall Federal tax receipts rose $338 billion; yet we still accumulated deficits of $350 billion; and today have a national debt in excess of a trillion dollars. Raising taxes does not balance budgets. Tax increases simply give the Federal Government more to spend on Federal for yet more spendings programs that create constituencies the tax cuts, or eliminating them altogether, a tax program oriented toward work, saving into just another attempt to fine tune the Postponing would transform and productivity economy. as Francis Bacon said, "History makes men wise, " then we would do well to learn from past attempts to attack deficits through tax increases rather than spending cuts. The Federal Government imposed a surtax of 7. 5 percent in 1968, 10 percent in Z969 and 2. 5 percent in 1970. If, from late 1969 to late 1970, real gross national declined 1 percent and unemployment almost doubled. But more to the point, the deficit -- from being marginally in balance in 1969 -- grew to $23 billion in 1971. The tax increases reduced saving, investment and gross national product, and led to a higher deficit. And product If anything, that marginal balance of $3. 2 billion in the 1969 budget was an exception that proved the rule: Taxes will not balance the budget, they simply bloat the Government. You know, I know and every taxpayer knows that, if you it. send money to Washington, they will find a way to spend If you want to stop the child from eating the cookies, you have to take away the cookie jar. is what we did when we cut tax rates. Now the free They Congress are complaining about deficits. in spenders are trying to conceal their real desires for more taxes and That. -- cookies. That fact is plain to anyone who has paid attention to It is a fundamental Washington during the last two decades. it takes in will everything Congress spend that principle more spending and then some. more principle of Congress is this: It is impossible to limit action on the tax code once Congress opens it up to Another change. Their legislative axe will fall on much more than just the third year of the tax cut. It will very likely fall on other targets -- the cut in the tax on unearned income from seventy to 50 percent, for example, or the reduction in the long-term capital gains tax to 20 percent. no one here is naive enough to believe that will eliminate or postpone personal tax relief, and leave other aspects of the tax program untouched. I trust that Congress And if the maximum tax on unearned income and the 20 percent tax on long-term capital gains are increased -- and they very well could be -- you can kiss much of the strength in the new issues market goodbye. The program we have in place should stay in place. Tampering with the tax program in the name of balancing the budget would send a clear, unmistakable message to the economy -- a message that would say, "We are back to businessas-usual -- back to the old stop-and-go policies. " belief that the the legislative branch -- is incapable of taking the long-term actions necessary for real And that belief in turn will keep interest rates high. growth. That message will confirm the market's government -- specifically to the current crux of the economic problem-Looked at from Treasury's vantage point, there is little reason for rates to be as high as they are. The more we search for a reason for current interest rates, the more we are reminded of the young Irish girl who went to So now we come high interest rates. Confession. told the kindly old curate that she might have committed the sin of vanity. She was afraid she "Every morning I look in the" mirror, " she told the Father, "and I think how beautiful I am. Don't be afraid. The voice in the confessional " replied: It's a mistake. sin. That's not a rates are no laughing matter. After all, real interest rates have historically run percent above the inflation rate. But in recent years, Today's interest 4 3 or layered on top of real rates, have been added premiums for uncertainty and for the expectation of future inflation. in the climate of Those premiums were understandable inflation that existed before this Administration took office. Clearly, today there is little reason for adding a premium for inflation -- at least not at the levels that exist today. it take to convince the markets that the committed to slow, steady growth in the money supply, to not monetizing:the debt, and to restoring the course? economy to a non-inflationary How much does is seriously Government this for a Think about will take about 22 moment; Federal borrowing this year percent of the funds in the credit market. preempted 42 percent of the credit interest rates were declining. In light of this year's relatively minor pressure on the credit markets, one can only conclude that real interest rates of 7 or 8 percent -- if not unconscionable -- are at least In 1975, the Government available and paradoxical. I am sure that in time that paradox will be resolved as toward a growing economy -- one without the torments of inflation -- one that affords every one the prospect of we move prosperity. In the final analysis, problems of economic Behind the cold numbers issued problems. of Labor Statistics are people and families who opportunity to put their skills to work in some endeavor. human policy are by the Bureau ask only the productive that human dimension, and we are fully We understand prepared to put our policy where our principles are. Last week, the President announced that he would send legislation to Congress creating enterprise zones that will promote economic growth in depressed areas. It is a strategy that we believe will revitalize of the depressed areas in this country -- particularly the inner cities. many in believe that reducing the burdens of taxation and Federal regulation will create a hospitable economic atmosphere in these zones -- one that encourages new businesses and preserves existing businesses. The course we have charted requires discipline and courage on the part. of all of us. But, believe me, it is We the only course which will lead to sustained -- interest rates and recovery. lowering of Sound public policy can come from the Government. But real economic growth can only come from the private sector. And that leads to the responsibility of those of you in business. Now is the not timidity; time for business leaders to show strength, statesmanship, not parochial interests. The American economy, the most massive and complex in the world, resembles one of those million-ton oil tankers. You cannot turn it around on a dime, or slam on the brakes if it is goes too far in any one direction. Our economy is the same way. But the captain on the bridge has signalled the turn, the rudder has been moved, the engine room is operating under a new set of commands, and -- if we will just be patient the economy will respond. — Thank you very much. Oepartment of the Treasury FOR IMMEDIATE D.C. ~ Telephone 566-2041 Washington, ~ April 5, 1982 RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $4, 701 million of 13-week bills and for $4, 703 million of 26~eek bills, both to be issued on were accepted todayApril 8, 1982, OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: 13-week RANGE maturin Price 96. 747 96. 729 96. 741 High Low Average at the at the Tenders Tenders low low bills 26-week maturi Price October 7, 1982 Investment Discount Rate 1/ Rate 13.49% 13.56% 13.51% 93.550 93.514 93.528 13 ' 83% 12. 758% 13.91/ 12. 829% 12.802% 2/ 13.88% 12.869% 12.940% 12.893% price for the 13-week bills were allotted 34%. price for the 26-week bills were allotted 42%. TENDERS RECEIVED (In Location Boston New York $ Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco Treasury TOTALS ~e Competitive Noncompetitive Subtotal, Public Federal Reserve Foreign Official Institutions TOTALS Received 64, 740 10, 487, 770 46, 815 AND ~Acce ted 67, 245 51, 555 66, 270 987, 130 36, 770 48, 880 3, 550, 085 44, 245 52, 180 50, 955 60, 670 134, 770 36, 110 22, 955 55, 195 46, 640 925, 885 54, 825 46, 640 280, 365 331, 170 $13, 190, 140 $11,066, 130 1, 225, 950 $ ACC EPTED Thousands) $ 9, 955 331, 170 $4, 700, 850 : Received 100, 325 10, 025, 765 25, 300 88, 770 52, 740 59, 175 1,005, 490 32, 785 25, 280 47, 190 23, 060 1, 224, 010 269, 965 $12, 979, 855 $2, 576, 840 1, 225, 950 $3, 802, 790 752, 960 $10, 994, 455 981, 600 $11,976, 055 145, 100 145, 100 $13, 190, 140 . $4, 7pp, 85p 258, 800 $12, 292, 080 752, 960 745, 000 $12, 979, 855 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. calculating maximum 2/ The four-. week average for on money market certificates is 12 92py R-715 bills July 8, 1982 Discount Investment Rate Rate 1/ ~dcce ted $ 69, 825 3, 279, 965 25, 300 52, 270 50, 740 56, 775 278, 790 30, 785 17, 280 46, 430 23, 060 502, 010 269, 965 $4, 703, 195 $2, 717, 795 981, 600 $3, 699, 395 745, 000 258, 800 $4, 703, 195 interest rate payable DEREGULATION DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS COMMITTEE (12 CFR Part 1204) [DOCKET 91-Day Time Deposits AGENCY: Depository ACTION: Final rule. Institutions NO ~ D-00231 of Less Deregulation Than $100, 000 Cormnittee. Deregulation Cormnittee ("Committee" ) The Depository Institutions established a new category of time deposit that will enable depository institutions to compete more effectively with short-term market instruments. The new deposit category has the following principal characteristics: (1) a minimum denomination of $7, 500; (2) a maturity of exactly 91 days; (3) a fixed ceiling rate of interest based on the most recent rate established and announced for V. S. Treasury bills with rnaturities of 91 days (auction average on a discount basis); and (4) compounding The Committee also established a temporary of interest is not permitted. in, favor of thrift institutions for one 25 basis point differential year and a separate minimum early withdrawal penalty for this deposit category. The temporary differential will also not apply when the Treasury bill rate is 9 per cent or less for four consecutive 'auctions. SUMMARY: has EFFECTIVE DATE: May 1, 1982. Rebecca Laird, Senior Associate General INFORMATION CONTACT: Federal Home Loan Bank Board (202/377-6446), Mark Leemon, Attorney, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (202/447-1880), F. Douglas Birdzell, Counsel, or Joseph A. DiNuzzo, Attorney, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (202/389-4147), Daniel L. Rhoads, Attorney, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (202/452-3711), or Elaine Boutilier, AttorneyAdvisor, Department of the Treasury (202/566-8737). FOR FURTHER Counsel, Deregulation The Depository Institutions 12 U. S. C. et ~se ) ("Act") 96-221; 3501 L. Act of 1980 (Title II of P. $$ and ultimate elimination phaseout the orderly was enacted to provide for of that rates interest and dividends maximum of the limitations on the institutions as depository rapidly accounts by may be paid on deposit as economic conditions warrant and with due regard for the safety and Under the Act, the Committee soundness of depository institutions. is authorized to phase out interest rate ceilings by any one of a number of methods, including the creation of new account categories either or with interest rate ceilings not subject to interest rate limitations set at market rates of interest. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: . its June 25, 1981 meeting, the Committee considered the issue of short-term time deposit instruments and decided to request public comment on the desirability of authorizing a new deposit instrument similar to money market mutual funds (MMFs) having characteristics 46 Fed. Reg. 36712 (July 15, 1981). The Committee did not put forth Over 400 comments were received by a specific proposal at that time. (An analysis of the comments is contained the Committee on this issue. in the DIDC staff paper "Proposals to Change the Method of Calculating the Ceiling Rate of MMCs and Consideration of Creation of a New ShortSeptember 16, 1981, which is available upon Term Deposit Instrument", request from the Executive Secretary of the Committee. ) Approximately half of the respondents favored creation of a new short-term instrument Those opposing the authorization of a and about half were opposed. short-term instrument, thrift institutions, that generally argued new costs associated with new instrument the a deposit and potential the higher shifts from savings accounts would add to their current earnings problems. At . At its September 22, 1981 meeting, the Committee decided to solicit additional public comment (46 Fed. Reg. 50804, October 15, 1981) on several specific deposit proposals as well as the general features The three specific proposals were& of short-term instruments. (1) ceilingless, $5, 000 minimum denomination account with a transactions (2) a time deposit with an initial maturity' of 91 days, and a 14-day notice period thereafter, with a ceiling rate tied 'to the 13week Treasury bill rate; and (3) a ceilingless $25, 000 minimum denomination 1-day notice account. was requested on several specific account Cogent characteristics as well. ' a . feature; The Committee received 844 responses on the three proposals for comment and considered these comments at its March 22, in the memorandum to the The comments are summarized 1982, meeting. Committee dated December 10, 1981, entitled "Short-Term Investment Proposals, commenting favored a more competitive About 58 per cent of all respondents short-term instrument. The proposal was favored by a majority of commercial banks and was opposed by a majority of the thrift institutions commenting. thrift institutions including opposed to any Many of the respondents, published short-term instrument, stated that competition for short-term funds is no longer limited to competition among depository institutions but now also includes competition with MMFs. Some respondents argued that regulation of MMFs would be preferable to authorizing a new short-term new instrument. While the respondents opposing a new short-term instrument generally declined to comment on the specific proposals, those respondents a ceilingless, $5, 000 minimum denomination who did comment preferred This proposal was perceived as deposit with a transaction feature. being the most effective of those proposed for meeting MMF competition. Those opposing the proposal argued that it would cause an increase in the cost of funds, primarily in shifts from passbook and NOW accounts Commercial banks opposed the establishment into the new instrument. of thrift institutions while thrift institutions favor in of a differential differential. a such were in favor of " the $10, 000 minimum denomination time deposit with a minimum initial maturity of 91 days and a 14-day notice period thereafter, was the least popular among those favoring a new instrument. About 50 comments favored the adoption of this proposal. The comments were divided on the 14-day notice feature, and proponents Opponents were generally satisfied with its other characteristics. criticized its similarity to 26-week money market certificates and its likely inability to attract new funds, particularly funds held by MMFs. The second proposal, The third proposal, a ceilingless $25, 000 minimum denomination with a 1-day notice requirement and no transaction feature, account second-most Proponents stated popular of the three proposals. was the that the category would allow them to compete for deposits of corporations while opponents felt that would only benefit larger, and individuals, highly liquid institutions. it One of the more popular of several alternative short-term instruments suggested in response to the Committee's proposal was a of $5, 000, no 91-day or 30-day instrument with a minimum denomination transactions feature, and a rate tied to a comparable Treasury bill yield. About 100 respondents favored this suggested category. its December 16, 1981, meeting, the Committee postponed of its proposals until its March 22, 1982 meeting. Since the December 16, 1981 meeting, the Committee has received over 2, 500 letters (over 90 per cent of which were from commercial banks) urging active pQrsuit of deregulation. At consideration behind the Committee's consideration of a shortinstrument has been the continued strong growth of MMFs while growth of small time and savings deposits at commercial banks and at thrift institutions has been weak. MMFs, though uninsured, offer an investment of a market return, liquidity, a which includes the characteristics transaction feature, no early withdrawal penalty, and can be obtained in denominations as low as $1, 000. Short-term Treasury and U. S. agency securities also provide competition to depository institutions in that tax advantages, liquidity, safety, and can they offer a market return, of $5, 000 to $10,000. be obtained in minimum denominations The impetus term In order to assist depository institutions in competing with that offer alternative short-term instruments, non-depository institutions to authorize a new deposit instrument that the Committee has determined to attract new funds, will help will enable depository institutions to stem deposit outflows and will enhance the ability of institutions relationships. customer retain valuable After consideration of the comments received, the Committee has determined to authorize, effective May 1, 1982, a new category of ~"crt-term time deposit as follows: --minimum denomination of $7i500 —91-day maturity —a fixed ceiling rate for savings and loan associations and savings banks equal to the 91-day Treasury bill rate (auction average on a discount basis) at the most recent auction. The ceiling rate for commercial banks will be 25 basis points less than the thrift ceiling rate. The rate will become effective the day following the auction. mutual —no compounding of interest is permitted —may be offered in either negotiable or nonegotiable —the 25 basis points differential in favor of thrift is form institutions authorized until May 1, 1983. In addition, the differential will not apply whenever the 13-week Treasury bill rate is at or below 9 per cent for the four most recent consecutive auctions. When the differential is not in effect, commercial banks may pay the thrift ceiling rate. —a separate only of —the minimum early withdrawal all interest earned, account penalty of forfeiture and is available to all depositors. United States Treasury bills. maturing in 91 days are auctioned normally on Monday. The 91-day United weekly by the Treasury Department, States Treasury bill rate will be announced by Treasury and is published The ceiling rate throughout the country. widely in many newspapers payable for new deposits, as determined by the most recent auction, will be effective on the day following the auction. The rate payable on these deposits may not exceed the ceiling If such deposits are renewed, rate in effect on the date of deposit. automatically or othe~wise, the maximum rate that may be paid may not exceed the 91-day Treasury bill rate in effect at the time of renewal of the deposits' Unlike the money market certificate, averaging of Premiums, the four most recent auction rates will not be permitted. however, will be permitted in accordance with the Committee's rules. in 25 basis point ceiling rate differential on will expire 1983. In May addition, 1, institutions favor of thrift will not apply if the 91-day Treasury bill the temporary differential is at or below 9 per cent for the four average) discount rate (auction bills held immediately prior Treasury 91-day of most recent auctions differential is not in effect, commercial the When to the date of deposit. rate authorized for thrift the ceiling to pay banks wi] 1 be permitted institutions. The temporary recognizes that the new deposit category will offered by non-depository not be fully competitive with instruments institutions. Therefore, the Committee has also directed its staff to consider additional short-term deposit categories to enable depository institutions to compete more effectively with non-depository institutions. to present its recommendations to the Committee The staff was requested within 30 days. The Committee the potential effect on small entities the instrument, as required of this new category In this by the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5 U. S.C. g 603 et ~se regard, the Committee's action would not impose any new reporting or Small entities which are depositors generally recordkeeping requirements. should benefit from the Committee's proposal, since the new instrument would provide them a market rate of return. If low-yielding deposits shift into the new account, small entities which are depository institutions However, their might have increased costs as a result of this action. competitive position vis-a-vis nondepository competitors should be enhanced short-term instrument at market by their ability to offer a competitive rates. The new funds attracted by the new instrument (or the retention of deposits that might otherwise have left the institution) could be invested at a positive spread and would therefore at least partially offset the higher costs associated with the shifting of low-yielding accounts. The Committee considered when it established .). Pursuant to its authority under Title II of Public Law 96221, 94 Stat. 142 (12 U. S.C. $ 3501 et ~se ), to prescribe rules governing the payment of interest and dividends on deposits of federally' insured commercial banks, savings and loan associations, and mutual savings banks, effective May 1, 1982, the Committee amends Part 1204 (Interest on Deposits) by adding section 120 as follows: . $ 1204. 120 — 91-Da (a) Time De Commercial osits of Less banks, mutual than $100, 000. savings banks, and savings and associations may pay interest on any negotiable or nonnegotiable time deposit of $7, 500 or more, with a maturity of 91 days, at a rate Rounding any rate not to exceed the ceiling rates set forth below. and interest may not be compounded during the upward is not permitted, term of this deposit. loan The ceiling rate of interest payable by mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations shall be the rate established (auction average on a discount basis) for U. S. Treasury and announced (b)(1) bills with maturities of 91 days at the auction held immediately prior of deposit ("Bill Rate" ). Except as provided in subparagraphs the ceiling rate of interest payable by commercial banks the Bill Rate minus one-quarter of one percentage point (25 basis points) . Rate is 9 per cent or below at the four Treasury bills with maturities of 91 days most he]d immediately prior to the date of deposit, the ceiling rate of interest e by commercial banks shall be the Bill Rate. payab pay b]e Bill recent auctions of U. S. Zf the (2) (3) Effective May 1, 1983, the ceiling rate of interest Payable by commercial banks on this category of deposit for deposits issued or renewed on or after that date shall be the Bill Rate. (c) Section 103 of this Part shall not apply to time deposits this section. Where all or any part of a time deposit issued under this section is paid before maturity, a depositor shall forfeit an amount equal to at least all interest earned on the amount withdrawn. By order of the Committee, April 1, 1982. Steven L. Skancke Executive Secretary DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS (12 CFR DEREGULATION COMMITTEE Part 1204) LDOCKET NO. D-0022) Time Deposits of Less Than $100, 000 with Original Maturit, ies of 3-1/2 Years or More AGENCY: Depository ACTION: Final Rule Institutions Deregulation Committee Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee a new deposit category with a min) has established maturity of 3-1/2 years and no interest rate ceiling. imum original Under a schedule established by the Committee, the maturity of the will be reduced annually by one year until March 31, new instrument 1986, at which time it will have the minimum maturity for time deposits (currently 14 days). The schedule will also reduce the and maximum maturities of the small saver certificate (SSC), minimum but other existing categories of time deposits will not be changed by the plan. SUMMARY: The ("Committee" EFFECTIVE DATE: May 1, 1982. F. Douglas Birdzell, Counsel, or Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Joseph DiNuzzo, Attorney, (202) 389-4147; Paul S. Pilecki, Senior Attorney, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (202)452-3281; Elaine Boutilier, Department of the Treasury (202) 566-8737; Rebecca Attorney-Advisor, Laird, Senior Associate General Counsel, Federal Home Loan Bank Board (202) 377-6446; or Mark Leemon, Attorney, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (202) 447-1880. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: On October 6, 1981, the Committee INFORMATION: requested public comments on two related proposals to help accompobjective of an orderly lish the Committee's statutorily-required phaseout of deposit interest rate ceilings giving due regard to (see 46 Federal the safety and soundness of depository institutions Committee requested comment on whether The 49137). ister ~Re establish a new time deposit account. category that, would have the (1) an initial minimum orj. gifollowing principal characteristics: or more; years 3-1/2 (2) no interest rate limitations of nal maturity of an early withdrawal denomination $250; (4) penalty (3) a mj. nimum interest; and optional simple features months' that would equa] to 9 account the the first during to year without increasa]low additions to be negotiable. ing the maturity and would permit the instrument SUppLEMENTARY proposal also would have established two new deposit categories Committee also requested comments on a sched1984 and 1985. The each reduce year the minimum maturity of this new ule that would one year. de osit category bY The response to its request, the Committee received 580 let ters public on the new deregulation plan and the proposed new account. Of the 121 savings and loan associations and 27 mutual savings banks responding, about 79 percent indicated they did not schedule that, included a cei 1 ingle s s deposit want a deregulation instrument. Accordingly, most of them did not respond to the specific questions regarding the characteristics of the proposed new instrument . Zn from the over 80 percent Of the 375 commercial banks that responded, favored a scheduled phaseout but disagreed over the characteristics The 9 regulatory agencies and of the proposed new instrument. Federal Reserve Banks and most of the 28 commercial bank trade associations wrote in support of the proposed plan while the 10 thrift trade associations expressed opposition. Ten individinstitutions offered comments and half of uals and non-depository them were opposed to the plan. Those opposed to the proposals questioned the authority of schedule at this time the Committee to introduce a deregulation that authorizes new ceilingless instruments . They argued that mandate that the such action is contrary to the Congressional out interest rate Committee phase ceilings only if economic conditions warrant and only after due regard for the sa fety and soundness of depository institutions . the proposals expressed the view that a schedule institutions with an opportunity to plan for the legislated goal of ceil ing less depos it accounts . By beg inning with long-term accounts, they argued it will permit financial institutions to better control their asset-liability risk and to attract longer-term deposits that are most appropriate for longer-term Those favoring wil 1 provide lending ~ After considering al 1 of the comments, the Committee has established a new deposit category to become effective on May 1, 1982 . The new category will have the following characteristics: ( 1 ) no a minimum 3-1/2 original maturity of years, (2) interest rate ceiling, but the account must be made available denomination ( 3 ) no minimum (4) permits additions to an account during in a $500 denomination, its maturity ( optional ), and ( 5 ) extending the f irst year without be negotiable to (optional) . 1/ The existing permits the instrument will t withdrawal apply o the new instrument . The penalty for early 1/ Federal Home Loan Bank Board adopted on March 24, 1982 a regulation permitting institutions insured by the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation to 0 f f er certif icates Prior to this action which o f deposit in negotiable form. 1982 25, savings and loan associations wil 1 take effect April to of permitted fer negotiable certi f icates generally not no re were denomination $100, 000) certificates . ( large for ept excep The will be reduced annually by one year, new deposit category will be used in conjunction with a designed to phaseout interest, rate ceilings on time deposits. In addition the minimum maturity of the SSC will be adjusted downward The schedule the schedule to complement the new deposit. category. by follows: as is adopted by the Committee maturity and the schedule of the Step 1 (May new instrument 1, 1982) 3-1/2 year or longer, ceilingless deposit category becomes effective. The maturity for SSCs is adjusted to 2-1/2 years to less than 3-1/2 years. The new 2 Step (April 1, 1983) 2 1. 2 The minimum maturity on the ceilingless deposit category is reduced to 2-1/2 years. The maturity on the SSC is reduced to 1-1/2 years to less than 2-1/2 years, ~ rate is tied to the average 1-1/2 year Treasury securifor yield ties with the 25 basis point differential retained. and the Step 3 (April 1, 1984) l. The minimum maturity for the ceilingless deposit category is reduced to 1-1/2 years. Step 4 (April 1, 1985) for the ceilingless 1. The minimum maturity deposit category is reduced to 6 months. Step 5 (March 1. 31, 1986) The minimum maturity for the ceilingless deposit. category is reduced to the minimum maturity for time deposits in effect on that date. rules applY onlY to new time deposits issued on or dates; the rates payable on existing after each of the relevant are unaffected by the new rules. deposits time and savings new time deposits with maturities for rates Moreover, ceiling in the phaseout schedule on each of specified other than those will remain unchanged unless dates implementation the relevant in the future the Committee. upon by specifically acted The new taking this action, the Committee concluded that the plan is necessary to Provide additional returns to savers and to provide Zn depository institutions and their customers with a specific schedule so that institutions may better plan their asset and liability strategies in anticipation of an environment without deposit interest rate ceilings. Nonetheless, the Committee will monitor the schedule at least annually, taking into account economic conditions of depository and with due regard for the safety and soundness institutions. for public comment on two other new account established as part of the deregulation These accounts, like the SSC, would be indexed to Treas- The Committee asked would be categories that schedule. securities but would have no thrift differential and would have reduced minimum and maximum maturity. 2/ However, since these new accounts would not become effective until April 1984 and April should consider the necessity 1985, the Committee determined that of such accounts at that time instead of authorizing them now. This is in keeping with the public comments, which indicated that most depository institutions would prefer fewer rather than more new ury it accounts. In its rulemaking, proposed the Committee requested comments features, including a minimum denomination of $250, withdrawal penalty, and allowing additional deposits during the first year of an account without extending its maturity. of $250 were mixed. The public comments on a minimum denomination commented that no minimum denomination should be Some respondents required, thereby allowing the institution to set whatever it indicated that believed was appropriate. However, mo'st respondents The Committee concluded that. the institutions $250 was acceptable. should be allowed the maximum flexibility possible to set a minimum denomination on the new category of time deposit without disadvantaging the small saver, and, therefore, adopted the provision curon a number of a 9-month early no minimum denomirently used with the All Savers Certificate: made available in $500 must be account nation is mandated, but the free institutions to accept deposits the denominations. This leaves account is also available. a $500 of any amount, as long as feature of additional deposits during the first year, most respondents indicated that it would be feasible offered it in conjunction with a floating only if an institution and Many opposed this feature as too complicated rate instrument. The Committee has authorized additional confusing to the depositor. deposits during the first year as an optional feature of the new In commenting on the to be established in 1984 would have a 1-1/2 years and could be offered at a rate to maturity of 26-week U. S. Treasury rate (auction average on the not to exceed account proposed to be established in 1985 The discount basis). 14-daYto six months and could be offered of maturitY wou]d have a 13 U. S. Treasury bill rate (auction the week exceed to at a rate not 2/ The average account proposed 6 months on a discount basis). deposit category. Under this feature (which an institution is not required to offer) the institution may accept additional deposits at any time during the first year of the account. without extending the maturity of the account. The deposit contract shall specify the method to be used for determining the rate of interest to be paid on additions to an account during that first year. The comments received on the proposed 9-month early withdrawal penalty primarily opposed the proposal as adding confusion and making less attractive to depositors. Furthermore, they noted penalty longer than 6 months can be required the existing regulation. The Committee has the determined that existing early withdrawal penalty of a forfeiture at least 6 months' interest on the amount withdrawn will apply to It should be noted, however, that under the schedthe new account. ule, the minimum maturity of the new account will be less than one year effective April 1, 1985. At that time the early withdrawal penalty would be that which applies to accounts of less than one the account that an early withdrawal under by an institution year, i.e. 3 months' interest. The minimum early withdrawal penalty for a floating rate time deposit (for which the interest rate varies during the term of the deposit) with a maturity of more than one year is an amount equal to six months' simple .interest. If a depository institution ties the interest rate on its new account to an index that is beyond its control (e. cC. , Treasury security rate, commercial paper rate, Federal funds rate, Federal Reserve discount rate) for the entire term of the deposit, the institution may base the simple interest rate, for purposes of calculating the minimum early withdrawal penalty, on the rate in effect on the date the account is opened, or on the date of withdrawal, or on an average of the rates in effect during the term of the deposit. The institution must specify, however, whether it will use the initial interest rate, the rate on the date of withdrawal, or the average rate. For example, if the rate on the account is set at the twenty-six week Treasury bill discount rate plus 100 basis points and it changes weekly with the most recent auction results, the early withdrawal penalty rate could be the discount rate (plus 100 basis points) in effect on the date the account was opened, or the date of the withdrawal, or an average of all the rates in effect during the term of the deposit; but the method to be used must be specified in the deposit agreement. the depository institution chooses not to tie the interest rate on its new account to an index, but instead chooses to set precise way in which the rate varies over the term of the deposit, or if it changes the relationship of the rate to the index (e. cC. , the commercial paper rate minus 50 basis points for the first six and the commercial Paper rate at minus months of the instrument then the early withdrawal penalty thereafter), 100 basis points of the simple interest rates on an average using must be computed that the deposit was outstanding. time period the t&e deposit during established is intervals and remains rate If the interest regular Periods (~e. . . attheregular rate is established once in effect for If in effect for one month), the average simple be the sum of the rates established at each interest interval. while the funds were on deposit, divided by the number of periods the funds were on deposit. Each partial period will be For considered a full period for the purpose of this calculation. example, if a 2-1/2 year time deposit with an interest rate that varies monthly was established on hlay 15, 1983, and withdrawn on July 7, 1983, the average simple interest rate would be the sum of the May, June, and July rates, divided by three. a month and remains rate would If the length of the periods for which rates are effective varies, the average simple interest rate would be calculated by dividing the amount of time a deposit was outstanding into equal periods and then adding the rates that were in effect during The period those periods and dividing by the number of periods. used should be the shortest period for which a rate was in effect. For example, a time deposit might have the following rates in effect for the following periods at the time a depositor wished to withdraw the funds: six months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15% 1-1/2 years. . . . . . . . . . . 16% 1 year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14% was 3 years The total amount of time the deposit was outstanding + + 3-year l-l/2 years 1 year). This period would then (6 months Then the rates in be divided into 6 periods of 6 months each. effect for each period would be: ~ 1st six six 3rd six 4th six 5th six 6th six 2nd To ~ period. period. period. period. period. period. month month month month month month ~ . . 15% ~ ~ . . . 16% ~ 16% 16% ~ 14% ~ 14% ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ calculate the average simple interest rate, the rate in effect be added together -- 15 + 16 + 16 + 16 during each period would sum would then be divided by the + 14 + 14 = 91. The resulting to yield an average 91 divided by 6 number of periods simple interest rate of 15.17%. -- -- In the case of lump-sum payments of cash that would be regarded as interest (see e. cC. , 12 C. F. R. 1204. 109 and 12 C. F. R. 1204. 111), such payments must be taken into account in computing the penalty rate. Any lump-sum payment must be prorated over the life of the deposit. The portion that is attributed to the time period during must be regarded as interest which the deposit was outstanding for purposes of computing the penalty rate. The portion attributable to the remaining life of the deposit is regarded as unearned interest and must be deducted from the principal amount of the deposit and returned to the institutions For example, assume that cash of $100 that would be regarded as interest. were given to a depositor at the opening of a $1, 000, 4-year variable rate time deposit, that the entire amount is withdrawn after one year, and that the average of the rates paid on the deposit during the time it was outstanding was 12 percent. The lump-sum of $100 would be regarded by the Committee as a payment of interest and must be taken into account in computing the penalty rate. Because the deposit was outstanding for one-fourth of its expected life, a corresponding amount of the lump-sum must be taken into account in computing the penalty rate. Thus, 2. 5 percent (25 divided by 1, 000) must be added to the average of the rates paid during the time the deposit was outstanding (12 percent) to achieve a penalty rate of 14. 5 percent. The remaining three-fourths of the lump-sum payment ($75) would be regarded as unearned interest and would be returned to the institution. Thus, the amount that the customer would return would be $147. 50. The new rule provides greater flexibility in designing accounts. Depository institutions will be permitted to accept additions in the first year to a new account governed by whatever interest rate structure -- fixed or floating -- they would choose, provided that the method of varying the interest rate is adequately disclosed in the deposit contract. The Committee also considered the proposal to phaseout interest rate ceilings in terms of its impact on small entities, as required by the Regulatory Flexibility Aot (5 U. R. C. $$ 601, ~et ee . ). In this regard, the Committee's action does not impose any new regulatory burden, or increase any exi'sting or add any new reporting or record keeping requirements. Instead, this action eliminates regulatory restrictions on the maximum interest rate payable for certain time deposits on May 1, 1982. Small entities that are depositors generally should benefit from the Committee's action because they will be able to earn higher rates of interest on their time deposits. could have increased Small entities that are depository institutions operating expenses as a result of this action, because it is likely that they will be paying higher interest rates on certain time deposits; on the other hand, their competitive position vis-a-vis nondepository institution competitors should be enhanced by their ability to offer higher rates on time deposits, thereby attracting new funds that can be reinvested profitably. By law, the Committee is required to work towards the ultimate The Comelimination of interest rate ceilings on time deposits. mittee considered several alternatives to accomplish this objective; is available from the Executive an analysis of these alternatives Committee's view, the plan that the In Secretary of the Committee. for all depository was adopted provides the greatest flexibility without having a disproporinstitutions during the phaseout period, tionately adverse impact on any particular size of depository insti- tution. pursuant Institutions to its authority under Title II of the Depository Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980, 94 Stat. 142 (12 U. S. C. $ 3501 ~et se . ), to prescribe rules governing tbe payment of interest and dividends on deposits of Federally insured commercial banks, savings and loan associations, and mutual savings Interest on Deposits (12 banks, the Committee amends Part. 1204 CFR -- Part 1204) as follows: l. Effective new 1204. 106 May paragraph -- Time De of 2-1 1, 1982, Section 106 is amended by adding (c) to read as follows: osits of Less Than $100, 000 With Maturities a Years to 4 Years. 2 (c)(1) Effective May 1, 1982, this section is amended by the term "2-1/2 years to less than 4 years" wherever it appears and inserting in its place "2-1/2 years to less than 3-1/2 striking years". (2) Effective April 1, 1983, this section is amended striking the term "2-1/2 years to less than 3-1/2 years" wherever it appears and inserting in its place "l-l/2 years to less than 2-1/2 years", and by striking the term "average 2-1/2 year yield" wherever it appears and inserting in its place "average 1-1/2 year yield". by 2. Effective would 1204. 119 -- 1, 1982, May read as follows: Time De a new section 119 is added that osits of Less Maturities of 3-1 2 Than $100, 000 with Ori inal Years or More. (a) A commercial bank, mutual savings bank, or savings and association may pay interest at any rate as agreed to by the depositor on any time deoosit with an original maturity of 3-1/2 years or more that has no minimum denomination but is made available in a denomination of $500. (b) Any time deposit with an original maturity of 1-1/2 years or more issued pursuant to this section may provide by contract that additional deposits may be made to the account for a period of one year from the date that it is established without extending the original maturity date of the account. Deposits made to the account shall extend more than one year after the date that it is established the maturity of the entire account for a period of time at least equal to the original term of the account. (c) Any. time deposit offered pursuant to this section may loan issued in a negotiable or nonnegotiable form. April 1, 1983, this section is (d) Effective"3-1/2 years" wherever it appears striking the term "2-1/2 years". term the ing in its place be amended by and insert- (e) Effectj. ve Apri]. 1, 1984, this sectj-on is amended by striking the term "2-1/2 years" wherever it appears and inserting in its place "l-l/2 years". E f feet j.ve April 1, 1985, this section is amended by ( f) striking the term "1-1/2 years" wherever it appears in paragraph (a) and inserting in its place "6 months". (g) Effective March 31, 1986, this section is amended by striking the term "with an original maturity of 6 months or more" wherever it appears. By order of the Committee, March 26, 1982. Steven L. Skancke Executive Secretary of the TreaslirV pepartment FOR ~ NashinQton, RELEASE IMMEDIATE TREASURY' S WEEKLY O.C. o Telephone %66-2041 April 6, 1982 BILL OFFERING of the Treasury, by this public notice, for two series of Treasury bills totaling approxiThis mately $ 9, 400 million, to be issued April 15, 1982. offering will result in a paydown for the Treasury of about $100 million, as the maturing bills are outstanding in the amount of million currently held by Federal including $754 $ 9, 509 million, for Reserve Banks as agents foreign and international monetary authorities and $1, 942 million currently held by Federal Reserve The two series offered are as follows: Banks for their own account. The Department invites tenders bills (to maturity date) for approximately $4, 700 million, representing an additional amount of bills dated and to mature July 15, 1982 July 16, 1981, in the amount of (CUSIP No . 912794 AW 4 ), currently outstanding the additional and bills to be freely original $8, 982 million, interchangeable . 91 -day 182-day bills for April 15, 1982, No. 912794 BP 8). approximately and to mature $4, 700 million, to October 14, 1982 be dated (CUSIP Both series of bills will be issued for cash and in exchange Tenders from for Treasury bills maturing April 15, 1982. for foreign and and as themselves agents for Banks Reserve Federal at the will be accepted authorities international monetary Additenders. competitive of accepted prices weighted average to Federal Reserve Banks, issued be bills the of may tional amounts authorities, to monetary international and foreign as agents for accounts tenders for such of amount the aggregate the extent that exceeds the aggregate amount of maturing bills held by them . The bills will be issued on a discount basis bidding, and at maturity and noncompetitive under competi- their par amount tive bills will be series of Both interest . without payable will be amount of $10, 0pp minimum in a form book-entry in entirely issued records either of the the on 000 multiple, higher $5, and in any of the the Department of or Branches, and Banks Reserve Federal Treasury R 716 . Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D . C . 20226, up to 1:30 p .m . , Eastern Standard time, Monday, Form PD 4632-2 (for 26-week series) or Form April 12, 1982. PD 4632-3 (for 13-week series) should be used to submit tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . . Tenders over Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000 case of competiIn the 000. 000 in multiples of $10, must be $5, tive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with three decimals, e g , 97 920 Fractions may not be used . . . . institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities if the names of the may submit tenders for account of customers, furnished . Others customer are customers and the amount, for each for their own account . Each submit tenders are only permitted to in the bills amount of net position the tender must state long any excess of million . This is in $200 being offered if such position information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p .m . Eastern Such positions would include bills time on the day of the auction. "when issued" acquired through trading, and futures and forward transactions as well as holdings of outstanding bills with the same maturity date as the new offering, e .g . , bills with three months'-to maturity previously offered as six-month bills . Dealers, who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the: Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million . Payment for the full par amount of the bills applied for must accompany all tenders submitted for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the difference between the par payment submitted and the actual issue price as determined in the auction . Banking No deposit need accompany tenders from incorporated banks trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches . A deposit of 2 percent of the par amount of the bills applied for must accompany tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company and accompanies the tenders . . Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount, and price range of accepted bids. Competitive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or r'ejection' of their tenders. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretar; 's action shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500, 000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch April 15, 1982, in cash or other immediately-available funds on or in Treasury bills maturing April 15, 1982. Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the of discount at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax return of the owner as ordinary income. The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount Under amount such discount by a fraction, the by multiplying numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of the bill. If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer's is determined ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gain. Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series Nos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the Public Debt. ylpartment oy the Treasury ~ Washincl ton, D.C. ~ TelePhone 588-2041 BY THE HONORABLE BERYL W. SPRINKEL SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR MONETARY AFFAIRS BEFORE THE TRADE CONFERENCE NINTH INTERNATIONAL HOUSTON, TEXAS REMARKS UNDER April 6, 1982 Economic Policies Rea an Administration International of the I am happy to have this opportunity to address the International I enjoy opportunities like this to spend some Trade Conference. It gives me a time back in the company of the business people. You chance to catch my breath after the battles in Washington. know, I went to Washington hoping to change things, and I never At least I haven' t expected to avoid criticism and controversy. on the latter scorch been disappointed topic of The my presentation today is the international I can almost hear economic policies of the Reagan Administration. your chins drop at the thought of a luncheon speech on so broad a to try to make it easier on you by keeping my remarks as brief as possible, bearing in mind the old rule: a good speech should be short enough that when the speaker reaches the topic. I end you can promise still remember the beginning. of this conference is stated as a question, "Has America's New Economic Policy Taken Hold?" I am here to answer Our policies perspective. that question from the Administration's issues economic international to approach represent a sweeping of the S. policies U. from departures notable which entail some our allies. of of many policies current the and recent past, The theme We are working change cannot occur overnight. are we confident And view. to convince others of our point of direction. our in that momentum will continue to swing Such a fundamental Overall Economic Philoso h said, just what are these new international approach to We have a consistent oursp of ici policies economicc po identical to our is which issues, economic t'onal e internationa W market. the free b 1' in believe we i o economic p hilosophy: t' through private market a mic decision-making that economic efficient results than decisions imposed This having produces ments. more been pproac»cross the fu] 1 — to such diverse areas as economic policies our international economic consultation and cooperation with our Allies, our approach to foreign exchange markets, international trade and investment, and our response to the challenges of global economic development. ones. title of this conference refers to our policies as "new" The to us, But, what makes the free-market, approach so appealing difficult for its critics to refute, is precisely that, but tested and proven to work. There is ample it is historical experience which demonstrates that private markets generally produce the most efficient economic outcomes. Government, on the other hand, is an inefficient planning and intervention, it is too economic activity: and costly means of organizing and so not, new, inflexible environment, to react to the constantly changing economic and too limited in resources to duplicate the mechanisms and automatic allocation and coordination intricate built into the market system. A vivid historical testimonial to the effectiveness of a free-market approach to international economic issues is the Western economic recovery from World War II, and the decades of Domestically, the Western rapid economic growth which followed. industrial nations were rebuilt with a general free-market the major factor underlying the orientation. Internationally, ensuing growth performance was a dramatic expansion in world trade and capital flows. This expansion would not have taken place without the progressive liberalization of international trade and capital markets, in. which the United States played a role. Restoration of convertible currencies, gradual of exchange and capital controls, and the reduction of tariffs and quotas all gave impetus to vigorous postwar economic both in industrial countries and developing ones. growth leading removal — During the first two postwar decades, the United States was not just a leader in liberalizing the international trading our strong currency and our comparatively good domestic system economic performance made United States a reliable center for the international economy. However, in the past decade or so the United States has often been a source of instability most — particularly due to its deteriorating growth and inflation — per- formance. Some of this deterioration in U. S. performance reflected a response to the oil shocks, which we experienced in common with every other oil-importing nation. But a significant, cause of our disappointing record has been domestic economic policy. Sometimes the U. S. took interventionist approaches to domestic problems which the market mechanism could have addressed more And attempts at fine-tuning with a short-term appropriately. policy horizon ended up giving other goals so much precedence over economic efficiency that the ultimate results were a substantial worsening in U. S. productivity peformance, and an inflationary bias in wage and price formation. As you know, our domestic reverse this process. will bring substantial And benefits for the rest is intended to in order of the world, from a economic program our domestic putting house pressures, strong and stable dollar, a lessening of Protectionist a market for as foreign economY S. U. and a healthy and growing intermediarY. goods and a reliable financial Interest Rates and Exchan e Rates and destabilizing from a period of inflationary Our transition has unfortunately growth non-inflationary path economic policy to a — difficult one to go through, and turned out to be a difficult the implementation problem has Domestically difficult to implement. interest rates. And in interest clearly high been manifested most as well. attention abroad of rates have drawn plenty I am sure that you are familar with the basic foreign criticisms of U. S. economic policy. They believe we should not persist in a tight monetary policy in the face of an already weak economy, a large government budget deficit, and historically high interest rates. They feel that our interest rates contribute to rising unemployment in Europe. And at the same time, they suggest that because high U. S. interest rates and volatile U. S. monetary policy are causing exchange market instability and adding to the uncertainties of an already difficult environment, we should be willing to intervene in exchange markets to dampen exchange rate in exchange markets is Our distaste for intervention movements. sometimes described as ~rima facie evidence of our insensitivity to cooperate with to European interests and our unwillingness other countries. In our direct discussions with foreign governments, we believe these criticisms successfully —although not we have answered believe that the best We honestly always to their satisfaction. growth path non-inflationary way of getting back on a vigorous, will be to persevere in our efforts to get inflation under control, to revitalize to reduce the size and intrusiveness of government, and leaders foreign think I And the private sector of the economy. Most the logic of our approach. and economic officials understand economic policies sounder of them are also attempting to implement in order to control inflation and restore the dynamism of their But for now, the difficult political problems of the economies. transition period are more painfully clear than the benefits we stand to gain. that our interest The standard foreign argument has beenmistaken "policy mix" a to due necessary, than rates are higher -these high and that policy of loose fiscal and tight monetary feel they have currencies. Many U. S. interest rates weaken their artificially rates to interest forced to drive their own an even more dramatic currency high levels, in order to avoid Their basic prescription has been that we should the budget (through higher taxes if necessary), f ster to balance po' move faster icy, and join them in coordinated ex h y perhaps ease m market intervention. f some impact, we believe the impact Wh'le Whz e there is been has rope interest ra e gn currencies have inter st ra to U. S. monetary policy and interest rates. increases in foreign interest rates can Qn some occasions, even more to do with events abroad like past inflation performance, persistent. inflation expectations, and the large budget, deficits and external financing needs faced by some countries. The weakness of some foreign currencies has also reflected Negative many other factors besides high U. S. interest rates. factors for Europe have included inflation trends during the last year, uncertainty over the resolve of European governments to continue the fight against inflation, generally weak European current account positions, and political developments such as analysis which looks only at A partial the Polish situation. the simple correlation between two variables and assigns a causal But, in fact, there was relationship is usually misleading. usually very little correlation between changes in international interest, rate differentials and exchange rate movements last year. This winter, the rebound in U. S. interest rates did seem to have some direct exchange market impacts, but that correlation is already weakening again. As UPS. interest rates decline again differentials may move against us, but the dollar might well remain strong for other reasons. to we believe it would be counterproductive More generally, manner Large budget suggested. change our policy mix in the deficits are putting some upward pressure on interest rates, as But government financing needs crowd out private credit demand. to explain the level of interest rates we have seen recently. Furthermore, the total available pool of credit available is both by the measures which this being expanded dramatically, has taken to increase savings, and by an unwinding Administration speculative investment in real assets which Qf the widespread took place as a result of accelerating inflation over the last These factors further dilute the crowding-out effect. few years. Finally, inflation itself has come down dramatically since the beginning of of this Administration, so that cannot be the reason for persistently high interest rates either. passive reactions So excluding these explanations, we have to assume that what going on is some combination of persistently high inflation expectations and a "risk premium, " reflecting the basic unwillingness of investors to risk being trapped for long in fixed-interest investments until they are sure inflation is firmly under control. When market participants are uncertain, they tend to over-react to otherwise minor events like a transient upturn in money growth, and generate the self-fulfilling prophecy of higher interest is rates. The key to controlling inflation is a credible policy of slow, steady monetary growth. The task of establishing the credibility of the Federal Reserve was set back by its poor performance in controlling the money supply in the past -- and until credibility is established, financial markets will probably recent acceleration of money growth to be skittish. The confusing signals on fiscal policy did little to help this, and basic What the uncertainty. to options in recent months added that economic will stay on policy is needed is a clear perception Administration course. This is going a steady, non-inflationary to stick to a steady course, and we fully support the Fed, s intention to do the same. International Economic Coo eration continue to foreign Although we are sometimes accused of insensitivity concerns, the fact is we are very aware of the opinions and aspirations of our allies, and try to take every available opportunity to consult with them and arrive at common understandings. Secretary Regan and other Treasury officials -- myself included both in Washington and abroad, with our foreign meet frequently, counterparts to discuss key economic issues and to exchange I am hopeful that as we get further down the road information. in our own process of controlling inflation and stabilizing the the other major Western industrial economic policy environment, countries will also have been moving with us toward a consistent approach to controlling inflation and setting the and coordinated stage for strong and sustainable economic growth. in economic cooperation and consultation with our candid exchange of new ideas and points of view, in timely notifications of policy changes or upcoming economic events which impact on one another's policies, and in a thorough airing of grievances in hopes of finding mutually acceptable solutions. cooperation aware that the demands of international We are fully sometimes require a country to forego its immediate self-interest to We are receptive common goals. in pursuit of fundamental approaches which trade short-run losses for more significant But we are wary of approaches which run counter long-run gains. such as ones which imply collaboration to to the fundamentals, circumvent the market system and further distort global resource cartelization allocation. We are not backers of subtle international"organization" . governmental schemes, or of proposals to substitute for the free international trading system. believe allies -- in a We Our foreign exchange market policy --is a case in point our minimizing are we straightforward policy in that area is it to intervention in foreign exchange markets, by restricting of functioning normal the disrupt which cases of serious disorder European some in described been has Our policy these markets. " But this description is countries as one --of "benign neglect. that as a result we are "gaining" it impliesourbothallies, very misleading and that we are "neglecting" something at the expense of Neither is true. to influence events. an opportunity policy. have two basic reasons for our minimal intervention individual or government believe any we do not first is that what the correct level of an exchange second-guessing of capable that, historically, intervention is second should be. The rates simply hasn't worked. fix or manage exchange Our ~ Economists have plausible theories about the main factors determining exchange rates in the long run. But in the short, run, a much greater variety of factors can influence exchange rates, not. all of which are measurable or obvious. Exchange markets are large and efficient, and market participants make rapid use of all available information in arriving at. a collective "decision" as to what rates should be. What, quite often drives short-run rate of market. fundamentals like inflation rates But these expectations do of payments developments. not necessarily bear any relationship to what those fundamentals are doing currently, and may even turn out to be inaccurate predictions of their future behavior. the future and balance behavior Thus, it is presumptuous for anybody, governments included, to think they have sufficient information to pinpoint an equilibrium exchange rate different from what the market has produced at any given point in time. Even if intervention were capable of moving rate levels against market forces, in doing so it would be more likely to do harm than good. At best it would be a waste of money. So perhaps it is fortunate that intervention to fix or manage exchange rates has been so spectacularly unsuccessful. The major Western governments intervened frequently and massively during the late 1970s, but this did not prevent large and rapid exchange rate movements in the very directions they were trying to avoid . There is only one way to attain exchange rate stability, and that is through greater similarity in the economic policies and performance of the major economies. I would welcome with open arms any attempt to get stability this way. fact, I expect this will be a major theme for the Economic meeting in Versailles this June. We will be discussing ways that the major industrial countries can undertake a more similar set of stable and non-inflationary economic policies, based on monetary and fiscal discipline and free-market. principles. In Summit International Trade and Investment In the area of international trade, postwar economic history home the lesson that a liberal trading system is good for all participants, while any tendency toward increased protectionism. threatens this major source of dynamism in the international The Administration economy. is on guard against encroachments to the free international system of trade and investment and is pushing for further liberalization. We hope that other countries both developed and developing will do their part as well, since we all share equally in the gains. hammered — — topic of particular concern to us is international Anything that distorts or impedes the free flow of international investment has unfortunate implications for global resource allocation and growth. feel they have Many countries legitimate reasons to offer incentives to attract foreign investors; A investment. to force those investors to meet performance requirements; to control foreign investment in sensitive sectors of their economies; or to ensure that the achievement of their most basic domest, ic frustrated by the actions of economic goals is not arbitrarily We are not always multinational corporations. in sympathy with all of their goals, but we recognize that the autonomy of national economic policies is a basic and desirable feature of international relations. Nevertheless, we believe there must be limits on such measures. are very concerned with the recent proliferation of government interventions which attempt to appropriate the benefits of foreign investment -- and at the same time seriously distort trade and investment flows. Use of investment incentives and performance requirements can be tantamount to an unsubtle version of beggarthy-neighbor trade competition. In some countries, the property rights of foreign investors have become unacceptably tenuous; and many treat foreign investors in ways that leave them at a significant competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis local firms. We the United States has bilateral agreements covering international investment issues, and is a participant in multilateral investment codes under the auspices of the OECD and the United Nations, we believe these agreements are woefully inadequate to address current problems. They don't cover all the relevant issues or countries, and they are not binding mechanisms for resolving disputes. The most comprehensive of the agreements, those negotiated in the OECD, bear no relation to the activities While some of the LDCs. we are pressing to begin negotiations on a set of rules to govern restrictions on international investment. We have taken with our up this topic in bilateral consultations We major trading partners, and in appropriate OECD meetings. expect that it will be a major topic of discussion at the Versailles Summit in June, and at the November GATT Ministerial. This year, binding Economic Growth it and Develo ment come as no surprise to this audience that free-market approach, nor Administration's neither the Reagan government of spending, has required our actions to cut the growth countries. We us to turn our backs on the needs of developing believe that all countries should have the opportunity to grow, more fully in the benefits and obligations of and to participate trading system. the international I hope will this end, in the latest budget, we are proposing to expand for both bilateral and multilateral foreign economic assistance next year, in contrast with actual cutbacks in many significant domestic programs. we believe that the domestic economic of developing countries are the most important determinant po]'cies po 1cles 0 pf their growth rates, although assistance should be available to urgent needs of the desperately poor. And to these mos meett the t e most ends we are increase. ng our support for the orzgznal purposes and To our expenditures philosophies of multilateral institutions such as the development banks and the International Monetary Fund. We recognize that these institutions serve a number of purposes. to the expansion of private They have been important contributors economic activity which underlay the world's rapid postwar economic growth. They are supportive of fundamental U. S. economic, political, and security interests. And by promoting sound economic policies, these institutions make lasting and tangible contributions to economic and social advancement, in borrowing countries. Overall, they are clearly among the most successful cooperative economic endeavors in history. its role as the world's central official international monetary institution, the INF performs a number of functions. It provides a mechanism through which governments can consult and cooperate to maintain and improve the functioning of the international monetary system. It serves as a means for monitoring the appropriateness of its member's exchange arrangements and policies. The IMF is also charged with reviewing the adequacy of international liquidity and supplementing reserves when necessary by allocating Special Drawing Rights. Finally, the INF provides technical assistance and temporary balance-of-payments financing to its members, conditional on their implementation of economic policies designed to correct their domestic and external imbalances. In This Administration as a cornerstone of our support the key roles the INF plays in the international monetary system, and welcome the INF's focus on market. forces, economic fundamentals, and the need for sound economic policy. We are also working actively to ensure that INF conditionality is used effectively to bring about economic adjustment, by supporting economic policies in borrowing countries which give wider scope to market forces. international We economic also see views policy. an important the IMF We continuing role for the multilateral development banks. With some modification in their procedures, the banks can .expand their-role as catalysts for the mobilization of the private sector resources which are essential to growth and development. In late February, we released a thorough report on U. S. participation in the MDBs which stressed the directions in which we think their activities should be guided. Our suggestions are aimed at enhancing both the catalytic role of the NDBs and their ability to provide sound economic policy advice. The key elements of our proposals are straightforward. We will seek to have MDB lending practices place greater stress on market forces -- on the importance of appropriate pricing structures and incentives. We are asking the banks to make greater resort to guarantees, participations, and co-financing as ways of stimulating increased private foreign investment in developing countries. Rather than continuing to meet arbitrary annual lending targets, we are suggesting that the banks take a selective approach gearing their lending to the willingness of borrowers to implement needed policy changes through stricter conditionality. And we will be working to ensure that scarce concessional loan funds are The MDBs reserved for the poorest of the developing countries. should have a «maturation" policy which reduces borrowing countries' "soft, " loans as their economic conditions and " improve -- eventually aiming at "graduation, creditworthiness Finally, when access to "soft" loans can be cut off entirely. since the banks will be working more with private lenders, we expect there will be a phasing-out of paid-in capital subscriptions As a result, we will be reducing in as a source of MDB resources. real terms the U. S. budget outlays which provide resources for direct MDB loans in future years. the MDBs will be able to move further in these We are hoping In this way, their effectiveness directions in the near future. will grow and they will be able to play an important role over the remainder of this decades Conclusion . While I have than you expected brief, I fear I may have spoken longer our "not-so-new" approach to international economic policies. Please don't let my elaboration of details in the many specific policy areas obscure the clarity and simplicity of our basic message. We believe in the market and we believe that the freeapproach to economic decision-making, economic problems. answer most to market answer is the right We are trying tried to be in describing to avoid building up unrealistic expectations economic system in the international about what the participants In a cynical mood, Toulouse-Lautrec once can hope to accomplish. said, "Marriage is a long dull meal with dessert at the beginning. Unlike his idea of marriage, we have not tried to put dessert at the beginning by concocting dramatic strategies for "a quick fix" of the world's problems. But we know the policies have been in the past. Such strategies are always disappointed. have chosen will be effective, as they we " of the TreasurV pepartment For release after 7:00 April 6, 1982 ~ Washington, D.C. ~ Telephone %66-2041 p. m. Address Donald T. by Regan Secretary of the Treasury to the Harvard Business School Statesman Award Dinner York, New York April 6, 1982 New of course, both touched and honored to receive this to join a distinguished company of past recipients. bit leery of being called a statesman. A statesman, you know, has been defined as a politician who's been dead for But it's always ten years -- or a businessman dead for twenty. Actually, women. men and Harvard of the company to rejoin nice English Harvard a of the idea scoffed at who those there were in the But Secretary. Reagan's Treasury Ronald becoming major fifteen months since this administration took office, I like to For instance, who better than a think I' ve proved my worth. Harvard English major to explain the significance of a Trojan Horse? And if there's little poetry in supply side economics, I' ve found more than enough creative fiction in trillion dollar I am, award, and But I'm a deficits. In truth, I' ve looked forward to this evening with more than affection for nostalgia in mind. Like you, I retain a special -even if some of us that intellectual hothouse called Harvard Nowhere else Charles. got our education on the other side of the inspiring and ideas compelling is there such a congregation of red Ralph green ivy, and brick of mile ghosts. In one square life. fossil studied Agassiz Louis and Waldo Emerson ruminated called Marshall George and Crimson the Franklin Roosevelt edited old. the of rubble the from rise to for a new Europe of Harvard Business School is one of the brightest facets wide. and far known Their case study methods are the University. a take now can School I'm told that students in the Business special course in business ethics. boy who asked his father to I am reminded of the" young -- a merchant himself-man The define "business ethics. described the following example. someone buys something from me, gives "Son, suppose -$5. 00 -- and starts towards the door. And price me the exact I'm on my way to the cash register I realize suppose that while given That bills stuck together. that he's actually question mefortwome:$5. 00 Dartner?" tell my I Should poses an ethical — whether from the business school post graduates of- Harvard words of a Harvard the mindful of are or any other program 0 R-719 Charles William Elliot, who had carved over one in entrance to the Yard his personal motto . . "Enter to grow " I and kind. thy wisdom, depart better to serve thy country I Treasury, of the Secretary became might add that. when I first carved own of inscription an my toyed with the notion of having from Dante like, "Abandon into the Treasury building, something " hope, all ye who enter here. president, . enjoys a premier position in the intellectual and And it isn't due simply to great public lives of this country. For teachers, or innovative labs, or world-class libraries. without the tradition of service, personified by Elliot and continued across the span of three and a half centuries, Harvard Harvard little be would more than a provincial cloister. In my own life, I have because I believe in pursued it within the capitalist framework more freedom, the power of capitalism to deliver more opportunity, more social mobility and more abundance than any other system devised by man. I believe in rewarding the risktaker. I believe in profit as an incentive and in the widest possible distribution of justice, as well as wealth. Service can be defined in many ways. Roosevelt used to say that the inherent vice of the unequal sharing of blessings -- while the inherent virtue of socialism was the equal sharing of misery. Nineteenth century intellectuals practically coined the word "capitalist" as an insult to the countinghouse society. And Franklin capitalism was with a 1.6 billion dollar uncomfortable with M. entrepreneurial zeal. In the land of K. Galbraith and Keynes, profit has not always been regarded as a positive thing, of and capitalism has often been regarded as the handmaiden Harvard itself, for an has sometimes endowment, institution seemed J. J. greed. I have in mind demands more than fair distribution of profit and a widespread assumption of responsibility. For there can be no real prosperity in a land where millions are denied a chance at success. Profit itself has little justification unless it becomes the fuel for social progress and capitalism must have an underlying morality if it is not to degenerate into mere acquisition on a grand scale. But the kind of capitalism creature comfort. It demands a administration holds. Imagine the economic system as a kind of race. Government maintains the track and provides basic training to all the racers. It strives to insure all runners an equal shot at the start. It umpires the race to insure fairness. Butit cannot guarantee the outcome. If it were government of elite, it could select those who would run and those who would it could compel all the win. If it were a Socialist government, runners to run slowly and to end the race evenly matched. President Reagan ahead, " he told the behind. " sees NAACP it differently."but last The Reagan White House lonely outpost of -- laissez-faire. summer, like our "We we all must move anyone can't leave alma mater -- is the last half century of the old gulf between business no has seen a constant narrowing and so government has come to assume an ever-greater the humanities, role in economic affairs. For fifty years, we have turned to Washington to feed the hungry, house the homeless, provide work for the unemployed. So government swelled to meet our demands, it came to confuse responsibility with dictation. It promised to realize our dreams but spent much of its time merely sleepwalking. It vowed to raise the floor beneath the poor-but lowered the ceiling on everyone else. It sought to divide existing wealth more evenly -- rather than foster the creation of new wealth for millions of Americans. As -- with the best of intentions -- and it became little more than a costly of do's and don'ts, seeking to be to be competent. And nowhere did its mismanagement have more disastrous or ironic effects than in the economic realm. Compassion is a word much in today's headlines. Like. all words, it is vulnerable to distortion. Real compassion does not tolerate double-digit inflation. It does not accept welfare lines in lieu of lasting jobs. It is not comfortable with a spider's web of red tape that cripples the small businessman or woman without adding materially to the protection of anything, except the bureaucratic peace of mind. Government somewhere along set out the way, burden. An assembly-line compassionate, forgetting Real compassion is contained in a weekly paycheck with a reduced tax bite a grocery or gas bill that doesn't force a Real compassion offers a hand choice between eating or heating. Real compassion defines the ultimate up instead of a hand out. -- social justice as the right of individual self-support. Real compassion and capitalism of the American brand have For it was capitalists who always been comfortable partners. cursed the darkness and replaced it with light -- who replaced cold with heat, scarcity with plenty, and squalor with comfort. Capitalists put Americans on the road -- and sent other Americans Capitalists have brought better hygiene to up into the heavens. world -- more food to feed hungry mouths-the underdeveloped and more hope in lands where that most precious of all extinct. Capitalism succeeds best when allied with what called illustrious "predecessor, Alexander Hamilton,atmosphere reaches zenith an commodities obligation. would It be otherwise its in my "moral of It is democracy, equitY, fairness and, yes, real compassion. and individual men and women, based on the genius of individuals are protected and wherever thrive:-. , wherever those a dirty word maintained. So is why is capitalism their :iversity to so many -- fifty years to conversation including, keep words in our own land? Well, for one thing, appreciation of of the marketplace. an to say -- some who have sought for like profit and incentive out of polite sad ethic said to engender also recoils at public celebration So-called "bourgeois values" strike us as the very puritan moneymaking dull; it is hard to imagine many banners proclaiming the philisophical thrills of thrift, discipline, hard work and moderation. Yet if it isn't romantic, then capitalism is not without a heart of its own. If you doubt that, consider the fact that more than half of the adults in America -- 84 million in all -- give some of their spare time to a cause worthier than their That's 84 million of us, rolling up our own line of work. sleeves instead of twiddling our thumbs. 84 million potential solutions to America's problems. And because we recognize the voluntary spirit in this country, the President has launched a major campaign to tap the ingenuity as well as the corporate coffers of the capitalists among us. His Private Sector Initiatives program is already unleashing the skill and enthusiasm of an aroused private sector on some of our most intractable social ills. More than any in memory, this administration is counting on the marketplace to improve the standard of living for millions. This does not mean retreat from social responsibility; rather, it means sharing that responsibility with more partners than ever before. We areletting more dollars stay in more hands. We are hacking our way through the regulatory jungle. We are on our way toward making free enterprise freer than it's been in half a century. is only because we care about people as well as Society holds the ultimate franchise on free enterprise -- and we intend to use that franchise. In Urban Enterprise Zones, we will invite business and industry to generate hope as well as income. Where Washington has behaved irresponsibly, we will call on capitalism to act responsibly. We will turn away from the failed dogmas of recent history, and we will insist on a creative alternative from you, who are among the most creative of Americans. But that profits. For as long as I can remember, you and I have argued that could not, by itself, guarantee economic prosperity. It could not tax and tax, spend and spend its to social justice. It could, with the help of a vigorouswayprivate sector, achieve both. And so it is that the Reagan Administration has departed from the rutted road of paternalistic government, to try something different. I don't have to describe our program for you, but perhaps I need to remind you of some of its accomplishments. Perhaps I need to point out. that inflation for the first three months of this year is running around 3.5 percent, less than where it stood the day Jimmy Carter took office. Perhaps I should say something about interest rates that, while still too high, have come down by over 20 percent government since Ronald Reagan took of f ice. Perhaps I should mention that the rate of growth in federal spending is being reduced If dramatically -- along with the pace of government regulation. you don't take my word for it, then take a look at last year' s Federal Register; you' ll find it 23, 000 pages slimmer than in 1980. Finally, perhaps I ought to say something about the rate Qf savings in this country, which is finally turning around, and the rate of taxation, which without the President's program would have consumed more than 24 percent of the GNP by 1986. Then, having said all that, perhaps I should point out the which is more of the same pump-priming and logrolling that have characterized our opponents for all of their political lives. Incredibly the people who caused them have now taken to criticizing the federal deficit. alternative, Deficits are a problem. Personally, I'd be more comfortable could name a date when the budget would be in balance But we were elected to restore the economic health of this country. tax and other incentives begin to do just Once the President's that, then we will see the way toward a budget with a lot less red ink in it. For now, I would simply point out that Gerald Ford's administration sustained a $66 billion deficit in 1976 while Jimmy Carter managed to whittle that figure down to just $27 billion by 1979. Yet in the same time, inflation doubled and interest rates soared to record levels. I'd be a lot more worried about the size of the current deficit if it weren't for the size of new savings built in to the President's program: this year alone, new savings will reach $60 billion and by 1984, and new savings will have added $260 billion to retool, modernize if I aggressively pursue new innovations and new markets. the tools for quick recovery -- and for And oppose any cutback in the President's lasting prosperity. basic program of tax relief precisely because it would reduce consumer purchasing power as well as the pool of available program capital, thereby delaying recovery. We have defended the stale the to return and against those who would dull the tools solutions of an earlier time. We have even stood up against some elements of the business community itself, who have called for a rollback in personal tax cuts while preserving accelerated cost in recovery and safe harbor leasing. We have done so, not only one -with tampering because but fairness elemental the name of element of the basic tax program puts the entire program at risk. We' ve provided the public demands of American business is very close just to what the Reagan Administration expects. We don't want we cities. S. in U. more plants more yachts in U. ST harbors, but welfare social the over don't expect free enterprise to take own programs -- but we do expect it to join vigorously in our urban of hundreds and millions of our reclaim young efforts to for the economic system in which we share a common neighborhoods business to sustain our behalf that it can be expect We social progress, and not merely one more sacred cow of an enqine What feeding at the Washington trough. Earlier, I spoke of President Elliot, and of the tradition of service he bequeathed to each succeeding Harvard generation. Elliot had another admonition to give to the forty classes over It's just as relevant today. "Look up and which he presided. not down, " he told his fellow Harvard men, "look out and not in; " look forward and not back, and lend a hand. If I statistics could leave you with a message beyond the economic and political arguments, that would be That, in a nutshell, sums up both the morality and the responsibility of. capitalists as well as scholars. It is a formula for statesmanship that goes beyond any award. And it is the credo to which it. this administration will adhere. After so many years in your ranks, I know that it is a credo share. And so it is, that I ask you to join me now, in transforming that noble ideal into living reality. I ask you all to be statesmen of a capitalistic and caring society. you Thank you. ¹ ¹ ¹ PePrtmeni of tNe TreasiirY FOR RELEASE AT 12:00 ~ Waslllneton, O.C. ~ Telepgon~ April NOON TREASURY'S 8, 1982 g66.go41 52-WEEK BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for approximately $5, 250 million of 364-day Treasury bills to be dated April 22, 1982, and to mature April 21, 1983 (CUSIP No. 912794 CB 8). This issue will provide about $1,000 million new cash for the Treasury, as the maturing 52-week bill was originally issued in the amount of $4, 261 million. The additional issues of 136-day and 20-day cash management. bills totaling $10,017 million issued on December 7, 1981, and April 2, 1982, and maturing April 22, 1982, will be redeemed at maturity. The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing April 22, 1982. In addition to the maturing 52-week bills, there are $9, 473 million of maturing and cash management bills which were originally issued as 13-week and 26-week bills. The disposition of this latter amount will be announced next week. Federal Reserve Banks as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities currently hold $2, 266 million, and Federal Reserve Banks for their own account hold $2, 346 million of the These amounts represent the combined holdings of maturing bills. such accounts for the three regular issues of maturing bills. Tenders from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities will be accepted at the weighted average price of accepted competitive tenders' Additional amounts of the bills may be issued to Federal Reserve Banks, as agents for foreign and international monetary authorities, to the extent that the aggregate amount of tenders for such accounts exceeds the aggregate amount of maturing bills held by For purposes of determining such additional amounts, foreign them. monetary authorities are considered to hold and international million of the original 52-week issue. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competipar amount tive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their will be bills of series This will be payable without interest. of amount $10,000 minimum in a issued entirely in book-entry form of the either records the on and in any higher $5, 000 multiple, of the Department the of or Branches, Federal Reserve Banks and Treasury. Tenders will be received at Federal Branches and at the Bureau of the Public 20226, up to 1:30 p. m. , Eastern Standard 1982. Form PD 4632-1 should be used to be maintained on the book-entry records Treasury. R-720 Reserve Banks and Debt, Washington, D. C. time, Thursday, April 15, submit tenders for bills to of the Department of the Each tender must be for a minimum of $10, 000. Tenders over must be in multiples of $5, 000. In the case of competitiv'e the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 1M', . Fractions may not be used with three decimals, e .g . , 97 920 $10,000 tenders, . . . institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities if the names of the. may submit tenders for account of customers, are furnished . Others. . customer each customers and the amount for own account. Each their tenders for are only permitted to submit tender must state the amount of any net long position in the biII, s being offered if such position is in excess of $200 million . This, information should reflect positions held as of 12:30 p .m . Eastern time on the day of the auction . Such positions would include bills Banking issued" trading, futures and forward transactions . Dealers, who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions in and borrowings on such securities, when submitting tenders for customers, must submit a separate tender for each customer whose net, long position in the bill being offered exceeds $200 million. acquired through "when and of the bills applied for for bills to be maintained on the book-entry records of the Department of the Treasury . A cash adjustment will be made on all accepted tenders for the diffeience between the par payment submitted and the actual issue price as determined in the auction. must Payment for the full par amount accompany all tenders submitted deposit need accompany No tenders from incorporated banks trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities for bills to be maintained on the bookentry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches . A deposit of 2 percent of the par amount of the bills applied for must accompany tenders for such bills from others, unless an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company accompanies the and tenders ~ Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids . Competitive bidders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection of their tenders . The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and the Secretary's action shall be final . Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for $500, 000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the weighted average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids. Settlement for accepted tenders for bills to be maintained the book entry records of Federal Reserve Banks and Branches must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch in cash or other immediately-available funds on April 22, 1982, Cash adjustments or in Treasury bills maturing April 22, 3.982. will be made for differences between the par value of the maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. on Section 454(b) of the Internal Revenue Code, the amount of discount at which these bills are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed, or otherwise disposed of. Section 1232(a)(4) provides that any gain on the sale or redemption of these bills that does not exceed the ratable share of the acquisition discount must be included in the Federal income tax retur'n of the owner as ordinary income. The acquisition discount is the excess of the stated redemption price over the taxpayer's basis (cost) for the bill. The ratable share of this discount . is determined such discount by a fraction, the by multiplying numerator of which is the number of days the taxpayer held the bill and the denominator of which is the number of days from the day following the taxpayer's date of purchase to the maturity of If the gain on the sale of a bill exceeds the taxpayer's the bill. ratable portion of the acquisition discount, the excess gain is treated as short-term capital gain. Department of the Treasury Circulars, Public Debt Series Nos. 26-76 and 27-76, and this notice, prescribe the terms of these Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circulars and tender forms may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch, or from the Bureau of the Public Under Debt. &SERT BQOkBIHDI Mic NC, ncav~a ia OEC. 83