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T /U4*3 LIBRARY ROOM 5030 .JUL 9. it 1976 TREASURY DEPARTMENT I 7-13-07 5 TVe/\sfy FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE FRIDAY, AUGUST 1, 1975 CONTACT: PRISCILLA R. CRANE (202) 634-5248 A new reference book issued today by the Office of Revenue Sharing lists each state and local government's share of the over $20 billion the office has distributed since 1972. Fiscal year 1976 estimated allocations to more than 38,000 recipient governments are shown as well. The figures are presented in such a way as to enable the reader to compare amounts by jurisdiction from one payment period to another. The document is entitled Payment Summary: Entitlement Periods 1 through 5 with Period 6 Estimate. "Its publication is part of an ongoing effort to keep the public fully informed about all aspects of the program," said Graham W. Watt, Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing. "From the beginning of the General Revenue Sharing program, it has been our practice to publish all data, payment amounts, and descriptions of procedures for public use and review," Watt stated. / -2 Copies of the publication may be obtained from the C.overnment Printing Office. Reference copies are available in the Treasury Department's Library at 15th and Pennsylvania Avenue, and at the Office of Revenue Sharing, 2401 E. Street, N.W., Washington, D. C. The figures published include any adjustments to initial allocations that were made at the end of each of the first five entitlement periods as a result of improvements to the data used to calculate individual governments' amounts. Each year, the Office of Revenue Sharing invites each recipient government to review and propose improvements to its own data on population, per capita income and tax effort. These numbers are used to allocate shared revenues for all governments. The State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 (P.L. 92-512) authorizes the distribution of $30.2 billion over five years ending in December 1976. President Ford has proposed to Congress that the program be renewed through September, 1982. -30- REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY AT THE BICENTENNIAL DEDICATION OF THE CUSTOMHOUSE IN NEW YORK NEW YORK CITY, AUGUST 1, 1975 MAYOR BEAME, DISTINGUISHED GUESTS, MEMBERS OF THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT, AND FELLOW CITIZENS: IT IS WITH A DEEP SENSE OF AWE THAT I SPEW TO YOU FROM THESE STEPS TODAY. IF YOU WILL PAUSE FOR A MOMENT TO REFLECT UPON OUR HISTORY AS A NATION, YOU WILL SOON REALIZE THAT THERE ARE PERHAPS A HALF-DOZEN SITES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHERE ONE CAN BREATHE DEEPLY OF OUR EARLY EXPERIENCES AS AMERICANS — HISTORIC SITES THAT STIR THE HEART AND RECALL THE SPIRIT OF YESTERYEAR. THINK, FOR INSTANCE, OF HOW.MUCH OF THE AMERICAN STORY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO PLYMOUTH ROCK AND TO WILLIAMSBURG; HOW MUCH OF IT WAS WRITTEN IN BLOOD AT BUNKER HLLL AND IN THE SNOW AT VALLEY FORGE; AND HOW FREEDOM TOOK ROOT AND FLOURISHED - 2AT INDEPENDENCE HALL AND IN THE NEW CAPITAL ALONG THE POTOMAC EACH OF THOSE SITES IS HISTORIC, AND YET NONE OF THEM HAS PLAYED A MORE VITAL AND CONTINUING ROLE IN AMERICA'S GROWTH THAN THE GROUNDS WHERE WE GATHER TODAY AND THIS CUSTOMHOUSE THAT WE FORMALLY DEDICATE, IT WAS HERE ON THIS SITE OVER 200 YEARS AGO, IN THE CITY HALL THAT ORIGINALLY OCCUPIED THESE GROUNDS, THAT JOHN PETER ZENGER WAS ACQUITTED FOR LIBEL, STRIKING THE FIRST BLOW FOR FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IN THE NEW WORLD. IT WAS HERE THAT THE CONTINENTAL CONGRESS MET AND ISSUED ITS FAMOUS CHALLENGE TO THE ENGLISH PARLIAMENT, INSISTING THAT THE COLONIES WOULD NOT TOLERATE TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION. IT WAS HERE, AFTER THE CITY HALL WAS RENOVATED AND RENAMED FEDERAL HALL, THAT THE FIRST CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES GATHERED IN 1789. - 3HERE GEORGE WASHINGTON WAS INAUGURATED AS OUR FIRST PRESIDENT. HERE THE FIRST THREE EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS WERE ESTABLISHED -- STATE, WAR AND TREASURY — AND THOMAS JEFFERSON, HENRY KNOX, AND ALEXANDER HAMILTON ENTERED THE FIRST CABINET. HERE THE BILL OF RIGHTS WAS SENT BY THE CONGRESS TO THE STATES FOR RATIFICATION. AND HERE, IN 1842, THE PRESENT BUILDING WAS COMPLETED AND BECAME ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS CUSTOMHOUSES IN THE NATION. WITH AMERICAN TRADE RAPIDLY EXPANDING, THE CUSTOMS DEPARTMENT SOON OUTGREW THESE ACCOMMODATIONS AND MOVED A SHORT DISTANCE AWAY, SO THAT THIS BUILDING SERVED FOR MANY YEARS AS SUB~ TREASURY OFFICE BEFORE IT WAS DESIGNATED AS A NATIONAL MONUMENT. 1*0 - 4As PART OF OUR BICENTENNIAL CELEBRATION, IT IS CERTAINLY FITTING THAT THE CUSTOMHOUSE AND THE U.S. CUSTOMS SERVICE ITSELF BE RECOGNIZED AS AN IMPORTANT PART OF OUR NATIONAL HERITAGE. THE CUSTOMS SERVICE WAS CREATED EVEN BEFORE THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT BECAUSE OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT'S DESPERATE NEED FOR FUNDS. AND FOR A CENTURY AND A HALF, IT PROVIDED THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WITH ITS PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF REVENUE — UNTIL, OF COURSE, SOMEONE DECIDED THAT THE GOVERNMENT COULD SPEND EVEN MORE MONEY IF IT ALSO TAXED YOUR INCOME. TODAY THE CUSTOMS SERVICE PROVIDES ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF GOVERNMENT REVENUES, BUT IT REMAINS'AN ESSENTIAL ARM OF THE FEDERAL ESTABLISHMENT, AND WE ARE PROUD OF ITS COMMISSIONER, VERNON ACREE, AS WELL AS THE THOUSANDS OF DEDICATED CIVIL SERVANTS WHO FILL ITS RANKS. IT IS ALSO FITTING, I WOULD SUGGEST, THAT THE BUILDING WE DEDICATE TODAY -- THIS SYMBOL OF OUR FREEDOM AND - 5INDEPENDENCE -- IS NESTLED HERE AMONG THE LOFTY SPIRES OF COMMERCE AND FINANCE. THROUGHOUT OUR HISTORY, FREEDOM AND COMMERCE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY INTERTWINED. EACH HAS GIVEN STRENGTH AND NOURISHED THE OTHER; NEITHER COULD HAVE SURVIVED WITHOUT-THE SUPPORT OF THE OTHER. • INDEED, THE FREEDOM TO SEEK ONE'S FORTUNE WITHOUT FEAR OR FAVOR, THE FREEDOM TO BUY AND SELL IN OPEN MARKETS, THE FREEDOM TO BUILD A BETTER MOUSETRAP ~ THESE ARE THE FOUNDATIONS OF OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEM. AND IT IS THAT FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM, WE SHOULD REMEMBER, » THAT HAS PROVIDED THIS NATION WITH THE GREATEST PROSPERITY AND THE HIGHEST STANDARD OF LIVING ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. AS WE SEEK AN UPWARD PATH OUT OF ECONOMIC RECESSION AND AS WE TRY TO CONQUER THE THREAT OF INFLATION, THERE WILL BE - 6CONTINUING TEMPTATIONS TO, REPLACE OUR FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM WITH THE FORCES OF GOVERNMENTAL CONTROL. WE HAVE ALREADY DRIFTED FAR -- MUCH TOO FAR, IN MY OPINION ~ TOWARD A CENTRALIZED ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES. WHEN THE STORY OF THIS ERA IS WRITTEN, IT WILL REVEAL, I BELIEVE, THAT MANY OF OUR CURRENT ECONOMIC TROUBLES CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE RAPID GROWTH OF GOVERNMENTAL SPENDING AND REGULATION. OUR MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT DECADE IS TO CORRECT THE BALANCE BETWEEN PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POWER AND TO RESTORE THE VIGOR OF OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEM. DELVING BACK INTO HISTORY, ONE IS REMINDED TIME AND AGAIN OF HOW UNIQUE OUR EXPERIENCE IS AMONG THE FAMILY OF-NATIONS AND HOW MUCH HUMAN HOPE IS INVESTED IN OUR EXPERIMENT AS A DEMOCRACY. As GEORGE WASHINGTON TOLD HIS FELLOW COUNTRYMEN IN THAT FIRST INAUGURAL ADDRESS DELIVERED HERE IN 1789: - 7"THE PRESERVATION OF THE SACRED FIRE OF LIBERTY, AND THE DESTINY OF THE REPUBLICAN MODEL OF GOVERNMENT, ARE JUSTLY CONSIDERED AS DEEPLY, PERHAPS AS FINALLY STAKED, ON THE EXPERIMENT ENTRUSTED TO THE HANDS OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE." LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, LIKE MANY OF YOU, I HAVE LABORED LONG HOURS IN THE VINEYARDS ON WALL STREET AND KNOW FULL WELL THE ENORMOUS TALENTS AND ENERGY THAT ARE CENTERED HERE. AS WE CELEBRATE THIS BICENTENNIAL, I WOULD MAKE A SPECIAL APPEAL THAT ALL OF US RENEW OUR COMMITMENT TO BUILDING AN AMERICA WHERE FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY MAY ONCE AGAIN FLOURISH TOGETHER. LET THIS FAMOUS OLD SITE HERE IN THE HEART OF OUR FINANCIAL COMMUNITY SERVE AS A REMINDER OF WHAT GR.EAT GOOD » CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED WHEN THESE FORCES ARE UNITED -AND AS A VISIBLE SYMBOL OF OUR CONTINUING COMMITMENT TO THEM IN THE FUTURE. THANK YOU. # » # Department of theJREASURY \SHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 )0 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 4, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $3.0 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $3.0 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on August 7, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing November 6, 1975 High Low Average Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ 98.384 98.365 98.368 6.393% 6.468% 6.456% 6.61% 6.69% 6.67% 26-week bills maturing February 5, 1976 Price Discount Rate 96.564 a/6.796% 96.524 6.876% 96.530 6.864% Investment Rate 1/ 7.16% 7.24% 7.23% a/ Excepting 1 tender of $10,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 40%. , Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 59%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 59,580,000 $ Boston ,446,565,000 New York 93,625,000 Philadelphia 86,345,000 Cleveland 40,175,000 Richmond 46,690,000 Atlanta 338,775,000 Chicago 50,630,000 St. Louis 16,740,000 Minneapolis 54,305,000 Kansas City 45,095,000 Dallas San Francisco 314,225,000 TOTALS$5,592,750,000 Received Accepted $ 34,100,000 2,443,365,000 48,755,000 47,070,000 30,125,000 39,845,000 165,745,000 31,380,000 12,740,000 41,105,000 27,095,000 79,025,000 $ 61,035,000 4,534,755,000 35,695,000 168,550,000 73,915,000 41,780,000 275,745,000 33,425,000 12,130,000 40,535,000 43,830,000 183,505,000 $ 24,985,000 2,681,805,000 10,590,000 65,915,000 50,955,000 17,270,000 43,535,000 17,015,000 7,310,000 28,640,000 15,830,000 36,255,000 $3,000,350,000 b/ $5,504,900,000 $3,000,105,000 c/ Accepted h/ Includes $ 524,690,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. ~/ Includes $ 251,465,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. T/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. OH .E vo aeraiWASHINGTON, nnancmg DanK D.C. 20220 «/> CsJ a> o // FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 4, 1975 SUMMARY OF LENDING ACTIVITY July 14 - July 31, 1975 Federal Financing Bank lending activity for the period July 14 through July 31, 1975, was announced as follows by Roland H. Cook, Secretary: The FFB made the following loans to telephone and electric utility companies guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration: Date July 15 July 15 July 16 July 21 July 23 July 23 .July 31 Interest Borrower Amount Rate Maturity Colorado-Ute Electric $2.3 million 7.491 7/15/77 Association Tri-State Generation § Transmission Assoc. $3.9 million 8. 28% 12/31/09 (Kansas City, Mo.) Cooperative Power $1.3 million 8.281 12/31/09 Association (Minneapolis, Minn.) South Mississippi Electric7.65% 7/25/77 Power Assoc. $3.8 million Leesport Telephone Co. 8.36% 12/31/09 $3.2 million Dallas, Pa. United Power Assoc. Elk River, Minn. $1.2 million 8.36% 12/31/09 Oglethorpe Elec. Membership Corp. (Georgia) $1.7 million 7.89 8/10/77 The above interest rates on the REA loans are quarterly rates. (Overl 2 The Bank made the following advances to borrowers guaranteed by the Department of Defense under the Foreign Military Sales Act Date July 16 July 16 Amount $2.3 million $15.0 million Borrower Government of Greece Government of Greece Interest Rate Maturity 8.125% 3/1/85 6/30/85 8.125 The United States Railway Association made two drawings against its line of credit with the Bank: Interest Maturity Rate 8/25/75 6 4961 8/25/75 6 675% On July 18, the Department of Health, Education and Welfare borrowed $4 million from the Bank under the Medical Facilities Loan Program. The interest rate is 8.31 and the maturity is July 1, 1999. •u u AMTRAK, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation,made three drawings against its line of credit with the Bank: Interest Date Amount Maturity Rate July 21 $4.0 million 9/30/75 6.471% July 28 $13.5 million 9/30/75 6.596% July 29 $12.5 million 9/30/75 6.602% On July 23, the Bank purchased $3,760,000 of debentures from the following Small Business Investment Companies: Date July 17 July 31 Amount $2.2 million $23.0 million Company Midland Capital Corp. New York, New York Enterprise Capital Corp. Houston, Texas Alliance Business Investment Co., Tulsa, Oklahoma Enterprise Capital Corp. Houston, Texas Alliance Business Investment Co., Tulsa, Oklahoma Atlas Capital Corp., Boston, Massachusetts Amount $ Interest Rate Maturity 500,000 7.98% 7/1/78 200,000 8.16% 7/1/80 400,000 8.23% 7/1/82 200,000 8.23% 7/1/82 710,000 8.29% 7/1/85 150,000 8.29% 7 /l/85 3 Interest Rate Company Amount Maturity Cascade Capital Corp., Portland, Oregon $1,000,000 8.29% 7/1/85 Enterprise Capital Corp., Houston, Texas 200,000 8.29% 7/1/85 Northwest Small Business Investment Corp., Boston, Massachusetts 400,000 8.29% 7/1/85 The SBIC debentures are guaranteed by the Small Business Administration. On July 31, the Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae) rolled over a $25 million loan maturing with the Bank. The interest rate is 6.55%. The loan matures on October 30, 19 On July 31, the FFB purchased a $200 million power bond from the Tennessee Valley Authority at 8.47% interest. The maturity is July 31, 2000. On the same day, TVA borrowed $120 million 92-day funds at 6.634% interest. Proceeds of the TVA loans were used to pay off $310 million maturing with the Bank. Federal Financing Bank loans outstanding on July 31, 1975 total $13.9 billion. o 0 o /</ FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. August 5, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $6,100,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued August 14, 1975, as follows: 9tday bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $3,000,000,000* or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated May 15, 1975, and to mature November 13, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XX9 ) , originally issued in the amount of $2,800,775,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 183-day bills, for $3,100,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated August 14, 1975, and to mature February 13, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YT7 ). ' The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing August 14, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,304,165,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $3,157,485,000 . These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, August 11, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their position! with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on August 14, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing August 14, 1975. ment. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this noticf prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or FOR RELEASE AT 3:30 P.M. August 6, 1975 TREASURY OFFERS $1.0 BILLION OF TREASURY BILLS The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for $1.0 billion of 18-day Treasury bills to be issued August 8, 1975, to mature [ August 26, 1975. The bills will be an additional issue of Treasury bills now outstanding dated August 27, 1974, due August 26, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 WS1). The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be , issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. i Tenders will be received only at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York up to noon, Eastern Daylight Saving time, Thursday, August 7, 1975. Wire and telephone tenders may be received at the discretion of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000,000. Tenders over $10,000,000 must be Klin multiples of $1,000,000. The price on tenders offered must be expressed on the .basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities land report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others ski will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others iemust be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the tl(amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and ill his action in any such respect shall be final. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on ^August 8, 1975, in immediately available funds. ^ Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are ^excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount .actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, ^prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. oOo For information on submitting tenders: TELEPHONE W04-2604 FOR RELEASE AT 3:30P.M. August 6, 1975 DETAILS OF TREASURY'S NOTE AUCTIONS The notes to be auctioned to the public will be: $2.0 billion of Treasury Notes of Series L-1977 dated August 29, 1975, due August 31, 1977 (CUSIP No. 912827 EV 0) with interest payable on February 29, 1976, August 31, 1976, February 28, 1977, and August 31, 1977, and $2.0 billion of Treasury Notes of Series F-1979 dated September 4, 1975, due September 30, 1979 (CUSIP No. 912827 EW 8) with interest payable on March 31 and September 30. Ihe coupon rates will be determined after tenders are allotted. Additional amounts of the notes may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and to Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. The 2-year notes will be issued in registered and bearer form in denominations of $5,000, $10,000, $100,000 and $1,000,000. The 4-year 1-month notes will be issued in registered and bearer form in denominations of $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, $100,000, and $1,000,000. Both notes will be issued in book-entry form to designated bidders. Delivery of 2-year bearer notes will be made on August 29, 1975, and delivery of 4-year 1-month bearer notes will be made on September 4, 1975. Payment for the notes may not be made through tax and loan accounts. Tenders for the 2-year notes will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Thursday, August 14, and tenders for the 4-year 1-month notes will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Thursday, August 21 at any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D. C. 20226; provided, however, that noncompetitive tenders will be considered timely received if they are mailed to any such agency under a postmark no later than August 13 for the 2-year notes and August 20 for the 4-year 1-month notes. Each tender for the 2-year notes must be in the amount of $5,000 or a multiple thereof. 2ach tender for the 4-year 1-month notes must be in the amount of $1,000 or a multiple thereof. Each tender must state the yield desired, if a competitive tender, 5r the term "noncompetitive", if a noncompetitive tender. Competitive tenders must be expressed in terms of annual yield in two decimal )laces, e.g., 7.11, and not in terms of a price. Tenders at the lowest yields, and loncompetitive tenders, will be accepted to the extent required to attain the amounts )ffered. After a determination is made as to which tenders are accepted, a coupon rield will be determined for each issue to the nearest 1/8 of 1 percent necessary :o make the average accepted prices 100.000or less. Those will be the rates of nterest that will be paid on all of the securities of each issue. Based on such -2interest rates, the price on each competitive tender allotted will be determined and each successful competitive bidder will pay the price corresponding to the yield he bid. Price calculations will be carried to three decimal places on the basis of price per hundred, e.g., 99.923, and the determinations of the Secretary of the Treasury shall be final. Tenders at a yield that will produce a price less than 99.501 for the 2-year notes and 99.001 for the 4-year 1-month notes will not be accepted. Noncompetitive bidders will be required to pay the average price of accepted competitive tenders; the price will be lOO.OQOor less. Fractions may not be used in tenders. The notation "TENDER FOR TREASURY NOTES (Series L^1977 or Series F-1979)" should be printed at the bottom of envelopes in which tenders are submitted. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders,.in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations noncompetitive tenders for $500,000 or less for each issue of notes will be accepted in full at the average price of accepted competitive tenders. Commercial banks, which for this purpose are defined as banks accepting demand deposits, and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, may submit tenders for the account of customers, provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from commercial and other banks for their own account, Federally-insured savings and loan associations, States, political subdivisions or instrumentalities thereof, public pension and retirement and other public funds, international organizations in which the United States holds membership, foreign central banks and foreign States, dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, Federal Reserve Banks, and Government accounts. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 5 percent of the face amount of notes applied for. However, bidders who submit checks in payment on tenders submitted directly to a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury may find it necessary to submit full payment for the notes with their tenders in order to meet the time limits pertaining to checks as hereinafter set forth. Allotment notices will not be sent to bidders who submit noncompetitive tenders. Payment for accepted tenders for the 2-year notes must be completed on or before Friday, August 29, 1975. Payment for accepted tenders for the 4-^year 1-month notes must be completed on Thursday, September 4, 1975. Payment must be in cash, in other funds immediately available to the Treasury by the payment date or by check drawn to the order of the Federal Reserve Bank to which the tender is submitted, or the United States Treasury if the tender is submitted to it, which must be received at such Bank or at the Treasury no later than: (1) Tuesday, August 26, 1975, for the 2-year notes and Friday, August 29, 1975, for the 4-year 1-month notes if the check is drawn on a bank in the Federal Reserve District of the Bank to which the check is submitted, or the Fifth Federal Reserve District in case of the Treasury, or (2) Friday, August 22, 1975, for the 2-year notes and Wednesday, August 27, 1975, for the 4-year 1-month notes if the check is cfrawn on a bank in another district. Checks received after the dates set forth in the preceding sentence will not be accepted unless they are payable at a Federal Reserve Bank. Where full payment is not completed on time, the allotment will be canceled and the deposit with the tender up to 5 percent of the amount of notes allotted will be subject to forfeiture to the United States. August 6, 1975 RUSSELL L. MUNK NAMED ASSISTANT GENERAL COUNSEL Treasury Secretary William E. Simon announced today the appointment-of Russell L. Munk as Assistant General Counsel. He succeeds Michael Bradfield who left the Department to enter private law practice. Mr. Munk will provide legal advice to the Under Secretary (Monetary Affairs), the Assistant Secretary (International Affairs), the Assistant Secretary (Trade, Energy, and Financial Resources Policy Coordination), the Assistant Secretary (Economic Policy), and the Special Assistant to the Secretary (National Security). He was born July 10, 1939 in Montpelier, Idaho. Prior to joining Treasury, he was Senior Counsel, Office of the General Counsel in the Asian Development Bank. Mr. Munk was graduated from Harvard College in 1957 with an A.B. degree in government, cum laude. He attended the University of Utah College of Law. He received a J.D. degree from Harvard Law School in 1967. Mr. Munk is married to the former Margaret Rampton of Salt Lake City, Utah. They have a daughter, Laura and a son, Daniel Ramon. oOo /? FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 6, 1975 , TREASURY FINANCING ANNOUNCEMENT In order to meet the major part of its new money requirements through the first week of September, the Treasury Department will sell the following securities during the next two weeks to raise $6 billion in new cash: (1) Up to $1.0 billion of an additional amount of bills dated August 27, 1974 which mature August 26, 1975, to be sold only through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in minimum tenders of $10 million, on August 7 for payment Augus (2) Up to $2.0 billion of 2-year notes dated August 29, tiid 1975 and maturing August 31, 1977; ,^ ^ (3) Up to $2.0 billion of 4-year 1-month notes dated September 4, 1975 and maturing September 30, 1979; and (4) Up to $1.0 billion of 13- and 26-week bills in the regular weekly bill auction of August 18, 1975 in addition to the amount maturing on August 21. The addition to the 52-week bills maturing on August 26, will increase the amount outstanding from $1.8 billion to $2.8 billion. It is anticipated that the whole $2.8 billion will be rolled over at maturity. - 2 The 2-year Treasury note, due August 31, 1977, to be sold on August 14, will be an additional issue in the sequence of 2-year cycle notes. The 4-year 1-month note, due September 30, 1979, will be sold on August 21 and will be the second 4-year cycle note to be issued by the Treasury. $6.3 billion of 13- and 26-week bills will be auctioned on August 18, for payment on August 21, to refund $5.3 billion of maturing weekly bills and to raise $1.0 billion of new money. Details of the note offerings and the special offering of additional bills maturing August 26 are contained in separate announcements issued today. Details of the regular bill auction of August 18 will be announced in the usual form next week. Department of theTREASURY \SHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 JJL> August 7, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF AUCTION OF $1.0 BILLION OF 18-DAY TREASURY BILLS The Treasury has accepted $1.0 billion of the $6.7 billion of tenders received for the 18-day Treasury bills to be issued August 8, 1975, and to mature August 26, 1975, auctioned today. The range of accepted bids was as follows Price Discount Rate Investment Rate High Low Average 99.691 99.684 99.686 6.180% 6.320% 6.280% Tenders at the low price were allotted 69%. 6.30% 6.45% 6.40% X UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Room 4121 Treasury Building 15th & Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. ihington, D.C. FRIDAY, August 8, 1975 12s00 m. PRESS BRIEFING DAVID U. MACDOWALD Assistant Secretary EH?ORCE^l^-r OPERATIONS AND TARIFF TJ?FT,IRS - on TREASURY INITIATION OF INVESTIGATION INTO ALLEGED D'£J2$PIEG OF IMPORTED AUTOMOBILES •oOo- PARTICIPANTS:PETER SUCH-CAN, Deputy Director for Tariff Affairs LYNN BARDEN, General Counsel's Office and MEMBERS OF THE PRESS -0O0- IKTRODUCriON BYs CHARLES ARNOLD Office of Public Affairs ~G0O 3 MR. ARNOLD: Ladies and gentlemen: We are ready to start. The deal is that at 12:16, the wires are free to go' SECRETARY MACDONALD: $ Thanks very much for putting up with a slight delay in this press conference. My name is David M&cdonald. 1 am Assistant Secretary for Enforcement Operations and Tariff Affairs of the Treasury Department. On my right is Peter Suchman, Deputy for Tariff Affairs. On my left is Lynn Harden from our General Counsel's Office* The Treasury Department, yesterday, determined to initiate a formal investigation into alleged dumping of automobiles from eight Countries. The eight Countries are: West Germanyj United Kingdom? France ? Belgium; Italy? Sweden; Japan and Canada. As you may know, th-^r-s are tio facets ec a 4 Dumping investigation. The Treasury Department determines whether sales are being made at less-than-fair-value; and this determination must be made within six months or—in complicated cases-within nine months. If a positive determination is made in that respect by the Treasury Department, the case is referred to the U. S. International Trade Coramission — formerly the Tariff Commission — which then determines whether U.S. Industry has been~or is likely to be—injured by reason of the sales at less than fair value. As a result of the enactment of the Trade Act of 1974, there is a new procedure which has been legislated, whereby-»if the Treasury Department has "substantial doubt" that the sales at less than fair value are a cause of the injury—the Treasury Department can refer it, immediately, over to the U.S. International Trade Commission for a preliminary look-see to determine whether that doubt can be resolved. In this particular case, we have substantial doubt that tho alleged sales-at-less-than-fair-value are, indeed, a cause of injury to the U.S., Industry, and we have that uouot because automobile coxm-irr^ officials have stated that 9v-t drop in domestic saias that has occurred with respect •?*o v.h'2 Domestic Industry has not be^n caused by imports. We think- therefore, that the U.S. International Trade Coraais.c?icn should take a preliminary look to determine 5 ^ r \ whether or not there is 'no likelihood"*^ "No reasonable indication" — I should say — of injury. If they find that there is no reasonable indication of injury in thirty days, we will drop our Complaint. In the meantime, however, we will proceed just as though we had not even referred referred it over to the United States International Trade Commission. We transmitted a letter to the International Trade Commission last night. Va are not releasing that letter. They may release it. Incidentally, if they determine that they cannot find that there is no reasonable indication of no injury then we proceed through our six or nine month period. find sales-at-iess-than-fair-value, If we then we will send it over to the International Trade Commission again — this time, for a full Injury Investigation which they have to complete within another three months. At the time we send it over to the International Trade i minission or, possibly, in one case before wo do so, we begin withholding appraisement on all injuries. That means that we do not liquidate ths injury so that--if actual injury ir= found-we can later go back and assess dumping duties against the imports. If the Interrrr.tionsl Trade Ccmmis~'.Gi. -rnds posit:.-.rely, the result, is that a x-mioing Orasr is entered and every injury, from the time of the withholding of appraisement, is then re-assessed and dumping duties, if any, are imposed on the import. The size of those dumping duties is equal to the price discrimination found between sales by the foreign manufacturer in its own Countryr and the export sales to the United States. As you can imagine, this is a complex factual investigation that requires a number of adjustments to be made to raw wholesale prices but, basically, the concept of the Dumping Act is that price discrimination on an international basis as well as on a domestic basis is an unfair method of competition and should not be tolerated except where no injury exists. As a result, the theory of the Act is to compare ths sales of cars—both domestically and for export-—on a mill-net basis, back to the foreign factory. Now, there are several things involved in this initiation of i\n investigation that I want to get over very clearly, if I may — several things that are not true. No. 1: Thin procedure *— when a valid complaint is filed — is mandatory. We must initiate the investigation.' This is not a discretionary thing with the Secretary of the Treasury or the Treasury Department/ No. 2: The procedure is fully consistent with U.S. International obligations, ar.d with our own Anti- 1 Dumping law. Finally, This procedure does not — repeat, not — evidence*-on the part of the United States-an intent to adopt a protectionist posture with respect to its foreign trading partners. Questions. Yes, sir: MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Who made the complaint? SECRETARY MACDONALD: There were two complaints filed. One was made by Congressman John Dent of Pennsylvania, and one was filed hy the United Auto Workers. The United Auto Workers0 complaint was limited to three Countries: Italy, Germany, and the U.K. Yes, siri MEMBER OF THE PRESS: As I recall it, Belgium was not in the original complaint? SECRETARY MACDONALD: It was in the original complaint of Congressman Dent* MEMBER OF THE PRESSs In that connection, Mr. Macdonald, the Common Market reportedly has said that only ccr.Tplaiits from the Industry are valid complaints. What is the answer to that? &ECPJ3TARY MACDONALDs The answer to that is a twofold err. In the first place, the International Antinrirpin:? Code provides that ^f;>rnallvf an investigation will be C9h:.,rc need upon the tiling of a ccmplarnt T*?hich7 obviously, 3 indicates that it can b& filed without any complaint in a particular case. So that that argument is not valid. Moreover, our own law and regulations require a fxlmg on behalf of an Industry. We feel that that entitles anyone who purports to be actingnon behalf'of an Industry to file a complaint and, in fact, past complaints have tean filed-under the Dumping Laws— not by the manufacturers, as such, but (1) by Congressmen — (in the matter of) namely^ pig iron from several Countries filed by Congressman Dulski. several years ago; and (2) by a Union — namely; potash from Canada; and fur felt hat bodies from Czechoslovakia. MEMBER OF 1HL PRESS: Mr. Macdonald, some Washington "Anti-Dumping" lawyers feel that Treasury's "case*is very weak/because the Trade Act of '74 gives parties claiming anti-damping the remedy of going against a decision of the Treasury,, And then the Trade Act stipulates that only manufacturers, wholesalers, or other firms, have that right to go to Court and fight a Decision of the Treasury not to initiate Anti-Dumping. Now, they alto e&y — concluding from that — that the Trade Act givo^ tr»rouoh tho Adjustment Provision— the function of helping workers, Union3 — the L:-.tor side ~ through the Adjustment Provision of the Tradr Act; and the Ox:\grc30 did, indeed, intend to give the manufacturer."3 -but oroly to manufacturers —• the rrrirdy of instigating Dumping cases. SECRETARY TiAtDONALD: I am aware of the argument We don't believe that argument has merit. In order for it to have merit you would have to argue the mutual exclucivity, in the first place, of adjustment assistance in Anti Dumping. Moreover, you have to argue that the Congress in 1974, when it passed the Trrde Act of '74 intended to limit what warj otherwise a broader capacity for complaint. Having lived through a good part of the legislative history of the enact.-jr.ont of the Trade Act of 1974, and having read the rarerts on it, I find no such intention evidenced. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Under the regulations, if sorueono made a complaint about alleged dumping and you thought the complaint was patently ridiculous, would you have to do this s.:tr.e thing? SECRETARY MACDONALD: No* -Je look at the validity of the complaint, and we «lso look at the identity of the complainant, but ha is addressing himself to the ^n"~ c.a:mificc.ition of tto coirplainant~not the merits« MEMBER OF THE PRESS: I am a little unclear abort V'our s;'-c tement. You &m Treasury has substantial doubt? SECRETARY MV'^CMAIxD: As to injury; not a*1 to sales at l$sn than fair value„ We investigate sal^s at less than 10 ^ fair value. Now, you say we hsyrirt got: substantial doubt as to sales of less than fair value. At the end of the 30-day period in which Customs has made what you might call an "in house" — well, not just an "in house", but checks preliminary verifications—of more or less raw, unadjusted data, and has recommended to us--and we have adopted that recommendation'—that this investigation be informally initiated. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Would you state that in more direct terms? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Incidentally — yes, that is a good pointI Is there anyone here who feels that we have made a determination that sales of lass than fair value exist?' If you dof pleaset you are wrong! We are nor oj^o^t to initiate _h_ i nve s t icy a % ion to make that deterzainatioa-at .which time all parties will have plenty of chance to answer. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Hox^ far back will this 'investigation go? Over what calendar period will you make your de termination? SECRETARY MACDONALD: I think ti..^ complaint roXatus tp the last two years but, normally:. the investigation wovild .ce for the si^-month period -- straddling t'se f ..ling of 11 tie complaint which was filed on July 8. MEMBER OF TH3 PRESS: Mr. Secretary, will you detail your complaint against Canada? What specific areas and firms will you be investigating? SECRETARY MACDONALD: We investigate on a Country by Country basis so, whenever a Complaint is filed against a particular manufacturer in a Country, we initiate an investigation relatrng to all manufacturers within that Country. We will investigate all products that are being exported. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Which manufacturer was complained against oricinaliy? SECRETARY MACDONALD: A multitude of them. The Complaint actually, is a Public Document of Events. MEMBER OF THE PRtiSS: $ave you made a potential estimate as to the dollar volume involved here? SECRETARY MACDOiJALD- Yes. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Whac is that? SECRETARY ]:t\CJOMALD: $7.5 billion. MEMBER OF THE P3ES3: $7.5 billion in salss at, allegedly, less than fair value? SECRETARY IlAC.X>NAL)>s No. Noi Nof That is the total nvrmt of trade involved. MEMBER OF THE PP-ES^J In calendar '74? 12 SECRETARY MACyt'tSALD: Yes. ;vZMBBR OF THE PRrJSS: Imports? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Yes. MEMBER OF TKtf FREES: I understand the White House asked you to delay thi< contc-rence in order to give the European Exchange a chance to close. Is that true? Do you feel this is going to have a negative impact on your trading partners, regardless? SECRETARY bmCDCFlTD: Let's just say we ran into an Administrative snag: MR. ARNOLD: It is time for the Wires to go! All right. Goi {At this pointf Wire Service r^r rasentatives left the press briefing.) MEMBER OF TW1 PRE££:. Mr. Macdraald, did you 300— in your opening staterert—that you will drop the whole investigation if the InternTitic-nal Trad-3 Commission sxtb-r stantiates yorr doubts --> ttat there is no injury? SECRETARY MACDC2?ALD: We have a slightly different tort than they have* Our t^st is: If '*3 have substantial douot as to injury, we will ?:;rr<-d it over there. Their test is: If rlr-'vs i;3 no reasonable i;..di'>?tion of injury after thay make a 30 day quick investigation then they would advise U3 of ichot faot, ard wa would drcr the; whole thing. 3~ 13 MEMBER OF THE PRESS: The whole thing? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Absolutely! MEMBER OF THE PRESS: You don't even want to know if there is dumping, or net? SECRETARY MACDONALD: It would not be relevant b-ucause thsre would be no injury,, Both requirements are necessary before d'orping duti.33 can be assessed. MEMBER OF THli PRESS: On the question of Canadian imports, the Canadian Auto Pact — does it not — seems to treat all North American auto3 as practically under one umbrella--and many U.S. companies ere, at least, involvedc How would thc.it be resolved? SECRETARY MACDONALD: It makes certain imports and exports duty-free. It does not purport to amend our — what you might:call ™ Unfair Trad© Laws, including the Ant i--Dumping Act. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: But it does recognize the fact tint many Canadian companies are, in fact, subsidiaries of American companies? SECRETARY MACDONALD: That is sort of ~~ I would not want to quibble with that—but it has certain results of excluding from dut.ios~~certe-.in shipments. MEMBER OF Tim PRESS: If that is the situation, t.!r;n you have U.S. versus German cor^paniosT—or Japanese corapanios • 14 SECRETARY MCDONALD: I don't think roar conclusion i.o accurate. .! don't tlirr : that is a recognition that I would make. I4EMBER OF THIl PRESS: Mr. Macdonald, can I gee back to niy earlier questi.cn to you^ Would you explain why Congress, when they wrote the provisions in the rrrds Act as to the remedy for the decision of the Treasury,. why, they did not include Unions? They include< narrfacturers; they included wholesalers• SECRETARY MAf;DCHA.LD: Okay. This is an extremely technical point. Whsr, yc & ere going up on appeal, you are in a ^judicial'posture. Ka e.re now in a:i ^investigative" pos-Jture. vvhen you aro in a judicial posture, you have a classical Anglo Saxon concept of "parties in interest". Apparently, Congress- wanted to expand — which they did -the number of parties in interest to take appeals from Dipping determinations, They expanded it. .MEMBER OF THE P3I2£S: Not to the Unions. SECRETARY MACDONALD: Okay, On appeals at the original-investigation-posture--as far as I am aware--there war* no change* at all made in the law. They are two oersxertf: animals. In fact, the Treasury Department, under our own iar/, can investigate and initiate an investigation w:\thout any complaint at all/ MEMBER OF THE PRESS: I want to be perfectly clear that, when you are naming Countries, you are including all of the manufacturers within the Country. For example, you are including Ford and G.M. within Germany; G.M. in Belgium. SECRETARY MACDONALD: Yes. Exactly/ MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Mr. Macdonald, doesn't the fact of floating exchange rates alter the nature of dumping/ and complicate the investigation of dumping? As an example, if the Mark goes down and Volkswagen^just because it cannot change its price every day--keeps its price stable* for a while, it is less than the home market value but, really, without an intent to dump. Do you understand the point? SECRETARY MACDONALD:. Yes. I would say that it does complicate the investigation,, Avd. I would say that if it trrns out that exchange rates arcs the only cause of a sale at less than fair value, we have sufficient discretion to go to a termination procedure, after we have xr:£dc- our investigation — if that can be isolated as the cause. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: What inputs have you received from the State Department^ if any? SECRETARY MACICroliIDs Well, we have been approached by nur^eroufs foreign Governments and, of coursef all of the rcpronoi.tatives of the fcraicn •— I should not say all — but 9JJ 16 a --:9?y^-: yy''~%3£> ?tt.tfrr of re.?rssentrvdves of foreign auto companies rto pointed out some of tna things that have been pointed out here todcy by sore of you gentlemen, and have-- further—indicated political rami i'icat ions that are involved in a decision of this sort. The State Departments of course, is the channel through which a lot of that coifr.es. We have taken cognizance of those "Aid iAcs:oire&I! a:ad have advised those Countries thrt X'jo are ™ at trt treasury Department ~ entrusted with administering a law--and it is rather a specific law-- and the investigation that is involved is a rather specific factual investigation &nd we, <ut the Treasury Depart::-tnt, intend to ororate under the law. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Hah Ambassador Dent's office also given inputs, so far a.e this relates to the multi-lateral trade talks* ir Geneva? SECRETARY MACDONALD: 'r® have kept him fully advin-Bd I could not answer, really, "YesK to that question. MEMBF1. OF THH PR3;i.Ss EGO Canada cut try 1^-put iaio your investigation at tai£ point'5 SECJtil'-^HY MACDCHA~Ds 9le -have talked with Canada, MEMBER OF TirlS: PRSSSs Along what lines? Does Canada rLrim the Artr ?c\at is ir. peine on tt.:s? SECRETARY MACDOtTALD: I &m advised-by Counsel aero-- that the Auto Pact specifically excludes the Anti-Dumping Act. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: What has Canada said to you? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Pretty much the same thing that I just summarized with respect to most foreign Countries. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Mr. Macdonald, would you endorse the theory that after the United States adopted the International Anti During Code, that, based on the legislative experience, there has been a sort of liberalization of the ca3es — the number of "Injury" findings •— compared to the time befcre '67? Would you endorse that theory that there were relatively more Injury findings by the I.T.C., or the thenTariff CoEnrdssion, than before? SECRETARY MACDONALD: I think that is something you really ought to address to the Tariff Commission. I could •act"endorse*it-~I am not saying it is wrong, MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Before proceeding to Japan in your ii^t of Countries, did you get more data, than existed , (Congressman) „ . :in the/D-sfit or the U.A.T*. Coiaplr.ints ••? They were ?.&i.:-:3.v polite, 1 think, cr non-existent, on the price table for JapanSECRETARY MACDOKALDs The answer —» the .simple ansuer —- to your question is, "Yes1'. WB got more data. There 18 were some peculiarities involved in the Japanese situation which were taken into account. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Was there any reaction from the U.K. government? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Absolutely! (Laughter) MEMBER OF THE PRESS: What sort of reaction? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Well, the same matter — I think if you don't understand the fact that we have a Statute that says, "You will commence a 30-day inquiry period. At the end of 30 days, if you find some verification and reason to proceed with an investigation, you will investigate," it you don't understand that concept, and you look at it as a purely political matter, you can draw all sorts of conclusions as to the «U.5.. intention. But the reason that I am sitting here as an Assistant Secretary . —- not. Secretary Simon/ or someone else~~is an indication that we are proceeding with this matter as we have proceeded with all of our other matters. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: What is the British Government's understanding? SECRETARY MACDONALD: I think the British Government UD.dersta.nds that. The^y are extremely competent, :L"i my view. MEMBER OF THE PR3SS: You mentioned —• there has b:»on t^rti-ony — ycu talked "-frith U.S. aiitc producers v;he said there was no injury- -or vh?.t they had doubt£ 19 SECRETARY il-A^DONALD: There was no injury, yes. I don't wr.nt to paraphrase — William Eberly, President of the Motor Vehicles Association said, "The drop in domestic sales and the rise in unemployment have not been caused by the import of motor vehicles in the United States— as such." MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Did you speak to G.K.? To Ford? If so, to whcm? SECRETARY MACDONALD: No. That really is a determination. The Injury determination is really a determination to be made by the U.S.I.T.C. We make the "sales at less than th.ir value" judgement. What we do is, having said that, of course, we have to, in our own minds, deternine: "Is there something peculiar about this case that 'it ^uld cause us to send it over for a particular determination?" We felt, "that statements of the sort that I have just que ted., yes. V©g« They go beyond thQ threshhold of 9 creating substantial d.c-ubt. MEMBER OF TB£ PRESS? Is it unusual to a^k the I.T.C.to do the 3Q-dry preliminary injury s\:udy at this point? SECRETARY -JACM^ALD 5 This is the sesond time we have don3 it since t^iv anact^^nt cf the Trade Act. MEMBER CF THE PFJ2SS • Would yc v. state, yourself ~ 20 maybe other people understand it — ANOTHER MEMBER OF THE PRESS: What was the first time? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Neoprene rubber from Japan. They sent it back and said, "Go ahead with the investigation." MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Would you re-state yourself? Maybe other people understand it better than I do; but you state yourself in a negative sense., as to what you are doing here — that there is a"doubt* and you are /still, sending it over? Do you make it absolutely clear, exactly what you feel is going on, and what you are doing with it? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Let me try again: There are two legs to the Anti-Dumping table — if that is a correct simile. I have a little trouble visualising that, myself! (Laughter) There are two pillars to that particular — I forget what it is that goes across. One is sales-at-less-than-fair-value./ One is Injury. As to 3ales-at-iess-than-fair-value, we have had allegations of dumping margins. Dumping sales at less-thanfair-value are a fairly substantial percentage and just a preliminary verification has indicated that we should look into that aspect of the case. However, we also just look at this other pillar and 21 ^5 we say, "How about injury? Is there injury alleged?" That is, in the first instance. If there is injury alleged: "Is there something in this whole procedure that should cause us to cut short the pain that an investigation of this sort inevitably causes to foreign Countries?" That is a second assessment in judgemental call that we make-over here at the Treasury. And the test, statutorily, is: Is there substantial doubt as to injury? Not as to sales-at~less~than-fair-valuei That is over at this other side, now. We concluded* "Yes", for the reasons I have just stated: Namely, representatives of the Industry itself saying, "Our injury is not caused by this problem", and, as a result of that, we are sending it over to the I.T.C. who handles that pillar, Ke don1't handle that pillar. That is their pillarJ They will make a 30-day investigation into that particular problem. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: There were t-*?o matters in the Dent proposal: one having to do with the Custom's classification of the £::iiciil Japanese tracks as "Chassis cabs" r«.ther tha:'.\ "trucks'". And the other one had. to do with the Custom's — what 1 think is called rready acceptance- «— of cost valuations of production costs. SECRETARY MACDONALD: These are issues that are not involved in the Dumping at all. There are other questions of valuation that have arisen. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Have you looked at that? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Yes, we have looked at that. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: You have not reached any decision? SECRETARY MACDONALD: No. However, we are investigating them, and we have certain entries — certain automobile imports. Customs is in a dispute as to several automobile exporters right now and has those entries open for the reasons — some of the reasons — that you were just mentioning. That is another matter, however. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Was it triggered by the Dent thing? SECRETARY MACDONALD: No. Well, that investigation has been going on. I think those entries have not been liquidated ~;ince 1972. Some of them may have been. I don8t want to say it was not. I just don't know. I cannot remember. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: This is not the investigation because of the •— in 19 71 — slapping on of the iirport •surcharge? SECRETARY MACTONALDs Ho. Yf ?3 I think they do yrc-date the Doyit inquiry, alchurch Congressriaxi Dent is foccssing right in on that a::ee. Thrt is antthsr issvi-r. 2-GrBEh OF Thh PhhtS: Mr0 21^adcnaldf where, s^ctiy, do you ^v:±.:i the price comparison in the progress froir the factory — from the manufacturer — to the United states? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Wholesale. Usually, wholesale quantity• MEMBER OF THE PRESS: I see. Naturally, bccf^re any local taxation in th# Country? SECRETARY MACDONALD: There are adjustnieirts made for various taxes in orccr to equats the two sales right back to the factory. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Bi;h after tha imposition of Tr.; dutyl SECRF^ARy MACDONALD: Yes. Th^t is backed OUtc *nreic?ht ±z backed out; differences in quantity? difference;"; ir style? arrt accoutriraets to the car are backed out* MEMl?£;h OF ihh PHBSSs before the imposrition of the value-added tax? S&CRhi'hR^ MAC-.DONALD s Thfiit is, of course,, on the 24 idea as to the amount of the dumping margins that you found— so far—from the raw data? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Well, the Complaints allege dumping margins of, I think — in some cases - - up to 70%. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Did you say seventy? SECRETARY MACDONALD: Yes, 70% less than the price being charged abroad. I don't know what to say. I stand the danger of giving you the impression that we confirmed that. Let me say that we have gst sufficient information to cause us to want to investigate that^ thoroughly/ MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Mr. Macdonald, do you mean 70% of the price charged ir the United States, or 70% less than the. price charged in the United States? SECRETARY MACDONALD: 70% less. MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Thank you. ANOTHER MEMBER OF THE PRESS: Sir* you had the German Ambassador hera yesterday, or the day before yesterday. What are the German arguments against this investigation? SECRETARY MACDONALD: I think I pretty raech answered that as to all Countries, They are pointing out both what they belizve to be legal questions that were raised, and political questions that are always involved in a proceeding like this. MEMBER OF THE PRESS^ Thank you. (Wheteupor;. the prscs h-'-'^fhifT <•»•••;> ^ r;~. -,.,A*?.A A. -»-».. *7 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 8, 1975 TREASURY INITIATES INVESTIGATION INTO ALLEGED DUMPING OF IMPORTED AUTOMOBILES Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today that the Treasury Department is initiating a formal investigation into allegations that imported automobiles are being "dumped" on the U.S. market in violation of the Antidumping Act of 1921. The investigation involving automobiles from West Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Japan, and Canada will be conducted by the U.S. Customs Service to determine whether imports from these countries are being sold in the United States at prices below the prices charged for the same products in the individual home markets. At the same time, Mr. Macdonald announced that the Treasury Department had requested the U.S. International Trade Commission to conduct a preliminary inquiry to determine whether, based on the information currently available, there is any reasonable indication that the U.S. industry is being or is likely to be injured by reason of these automobile imports. The USITC will have 30 days within which to conduct an inquiry. If they find that there is no such reasonable indication, the Customs investigation will be terminated. Mr. Macdonald explained that referral of the matter by the Treasury to the USITC at the preliminary stage of the proceedings is a new procedure authorized by the Trade Act of 1974. He said that recent statements by spokesmen for the domestic auto industry, minimizing the impact of auto imports on the current condition of the U.S. industry, had raised substantial doubt that there is a link between the allegedly dumped imports and the depressed state of the industry, as is required by the law. The decision to initiate the investigation should not be viewed as a determination that dumping exists, Mr. Macdonald emphasized. The Treasury action only means that a sufficient amount of information has been received to warrant further, indepth inquiry concerning whether foreign autos are being sold in this country at "less than fair value". The Treasury must make a tentative decision by February 7, 1976, unless complexities in the case require an extension of up to 3 months. If a determination is made that the imports are being sold at "less than WS-37^ fair value", the case will be referred to the U.S. International whether Trade Commission or not the for U.S. a full industry scale is investigation, being or is likely concerning to be - 2injured by such imports. If the USITC finds actual or likely injury, special dumping duties would be assessed on an entryby-entry basis to eliminate any price discrimination. Mr. Macdonald added that, contrary to recently reported statements from abroad, the action announced today (1) is required by law in the event a valid complaint is filed with the Treasury Department, (2) is fully consistent with the international obligations of the U.S., and (3) in no way indicates a decision by the Administration to pursue a "protectionist" international trade policy. U.S. procedures under the Antidumping Act, which dates from 1921, are well established, circumscribed by extensive regulations, and in conformity with the International Anti-Dumping Code. oOo DepartmntoftheTREASURY ASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 August 11, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURYTS WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $ 3.0billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $3.1 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on August 14, 1975, lt were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing November 13, 1975 Discount Investment Price High 98.406a/ 6.306% Low 98.390 Average 98.395 Rate 6.369% 6.349% Rate 1/ 6.51% 6.58% 6.56% 26-week bills maturing February 13, 1976 Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ 96.569 96.525 96.539 6.750% 6.836% 6.809% 7.11% 7.20% 7.17% , a/ Excepting 1 tender of $420,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 73%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted^ 7%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 61,710,000 Boston $ ,064,805,000 New York 4 33,985,000 Philadelphia 115,915,000 Cleveland 42,035,000 Richmond 57,350,000 Atlanta 466,200,000 Chicago 50,755,000 St. Louis 28,160,000 Minneapolis 72,105,000 Kansas City 34,835,000 Dallas San Francisco_ 278,405,000 TOTALS$ 5 > 306 > 260 > 000 Accepted Received Accepted 34,665,000 53,915,000 $ $ 40,710,000 .$ 2,268,150,000 4,392,125,000 2,287,660,000 56,405,000 32,105,000 82,405,000 73,925,000 48,925,000 68,215,000 119,455,000 36,765,000 132,105,000 33,940,000 42,805,000 45,020,000 241,085,000 414,815,000 226,160,000 27,435,000 39,935,000 40,505,000 : 12,000,000 36,440,000 16,160,000 48,585,000 . 29,055,000 24,945,000 26,835,000 23,995,000 16,995,000 217,750,000 349,750,000 132,425,000 $3,001,145,000 b/$5,671,270,000 $3,101,750,000 c/ )/ Includes $ 524,275,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. :/ Includes $ 264,005,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. L/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. FOR A.M. RELEASE AUGUST 12, 197 5 ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE 3 2nd ANNUAL JUNIOR ACHIEVERS CONFERENCE BLOOMINGTON, INDIANA, AUGUST 12, 1975 9:00 A.M., C.S.T. This is a very special and happy occasion for me. During the last three years that I have spent in Washington, I have come to believe more and more strongly in the need for fresh vision and vigorous, dynamic leadership in private industry. Today I am proud to come here and salute many of the young men and women who will provide that leadership in the future. In speaking to you, I am reminded of a young man who was struggling during the middle of the nineteenth century to establish himself as a poet. To win recognition, he decided to send a manuscript of his poetry to the giant of American Literature, Ralph Waldo Emerson. Emerson read the work, entitled Leaves of Grass, and sent this note back to the young man: "Dear Mr. Whitman," he said, "I greet you at the beginning of a great career." Emerson was right, of course; Walt Whitman went on to become one of the most cherished of America's poets. And so, too, I greet you as members of Junior Achievement at the beginning of what in many cases will be great careers. Through your participation in organizations such as Junior Achievement, I know that you are learning not only the techniques of organizing and running a successful business venture but that you are also coming to appreciate the contribution that free enterprise makes to this great nation. Your attendance at this year's convention of Junior Achievers comes at a particularly opportune moment because we will soon celebrate the 200th anniversary of the Republic. Coming here and meeting other young men and women from all corners of America, hearing the Southern drawl and the Midwestern twang, seeing the fashions from the East and hearing the spicey stories about what WS-373 - 2it's like out West, each of you must be deepening your understanding of America and the rich, incredible diversity which makes us such a restless and energetic people. This is a good time for all of us to reflect on the American experience and what it means. Some of you may remember the first pilgrims who came to these shores. Crossing the Atlantic to Plymouth Rock, huddled together against the winds of adversity, they heard John Winthrop deliver one of the most famous sermons in our history. In the New World, Winthrop told them, "we must consider that we shall be a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us ... we shall be made a story and a byword through the world." And that has been the American experience: to be that city upon a hill, a bright jewel in the galaxy of nations that holds out to all mankind the dream of "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." What has made this such a great nation? What has made people talk about the American Dream? Has it been the land? To be sure, we have been blessed by an abundance of natural resources, but in the Soviet Union we see a land mass that is much larger than our own, is equally well endowed, and yet the Russian land yields a smaller harvest of goods for its people. Today the Soviets turn to the United States for the grain they so badly need. Does our secret lie in the talent of our people? To be sure, we are blessed with one of the largest and most talented populations that the world has ever known, but in China we see a population that is four times as large as our own, whose civilization! was developed far in advance of our own, and yet today their standard of living is far below our own. Our land and our people, then, have both been essential parts of the American story, but they are not the whole story. A third ingredient -- the ingredient that is missing in the Soviet Union and China, the ingredient that has always made us different -- has been our freedom. The early Americans streamed to these shores in search of freedom -- freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, and freedom to seek their fortunes without fear or favor of the government. Each of these freedoms was planted firmly in our Constitutional soil; each grew and bore fruit; but each has become such a familiar part of our landscape that I now wonder whether we take them too much for granted. Those of you who have had the privilege to travel in other lands have seen how precious freedom has become in the world today. Only a tiny handful of nations now permit their citizens the liberty we enjoy here. It is no accident that in every country where people have been given a free choice between communism and democracy, risked they have their voted lives for in democracy. desperate And attempts thousands to escape of people from have tyranny gladly into S" - 3freedom. There is nothing plastic or artificial about freedom, nor is there any guarantee of its permanency. As Dwight Eisenhower once said, "Freedom has its life in the hearts, the actions, and the spirits of men, and so it must be daily earned and refreshed -- else like a flower cut from its lifegiving roots, it will wither and die." I worry greatly today about the survival of one of the most vital but least understood of our freedoms in America: our freedom of enterprise. The free enterprise system is the foundation of our economy, the rock upon which we have built our earthly kingdom. It is the system of free enterprise that has summoned forth the genius of our people -- young men and women like you who wanted to make a difference in the world. One of our greatest inventors, Ben Franklin, was a printer's appretice at 12, was writing and selling ballads at 15, and was publishing his own newspaper less than a decade later. Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin within a year after he graduated from college. By the age of 26, John D. Rockefeller had emerged from the obscurity of being a sales clerk to owning his own oil refinery. At the same time, 10-year-old Thomas Edison -- expelled from school because his teacher thought he was retarded -- was working in his own chemistry lab and by the time he was 30, had invented the phonograph. And at the age of 13, Andrew Carnegie went to work in a cotton factory - - a poor immigrant from Scotland. It is the system of free enterprise that has also provided productive jobs for the great majority of workers, fulfilled basic wants, enabled people to live more satisfying lives, and enriched the human experience. The cotton gin that Eli Whitney invented not only increased our cotton exports by more than a hundred fold within less than 20 years, but it also provided inexpensive clothing to millions of people. The mass production introduced by Henry Ford gave the world a cheap form of transportation that has been crucial for our industrial progress and has provided us with personal mobility that would have seemed impossible a century ago. And the little Brownie camera that George Eastman marketed in 1895 opened the way to a whole new art form that has given us all an extra sense of understanding and joy. Nor have such advances been limited to work done by men. There have been a countless number of women whose stories are not as well known but have also been a vital part of our history -- women such as Eliza Pinckney whose perfection of methods for growing the indigo plant gave the Carolinas a product that was the main staple of their economy before the Revolutionary War. Each of these men and women enjoyed and thrived on the freedom provided by our economic system. - 4It is, indeed, the system of free enterprise that has given this country the greatest prosperity and the highest standard of living ever known to man: -- In the last 15 years, poverty in this nation has been cut in half. -- Our farms today are harvesting more than twice as much grain as they were a quarter of a century ago -- and with far fewer people to get the job done. Each American farmer now feeds as many as 50 of his fellow citizens with one of the most nutritious diets anywhere in the world. -- Our technology has made us the only nation on earth to place a man on the moon -- and we've done that six times now. -- Our medical science has extended average life expectancy by more than 10 years since the turn of the century. -- Our technology has provided us with more leisure time -time for recreation, hobbies and for being with friends -- than any society since the days of the ancient Greeks. -- And our economic wealth has allowed us to give other nations over $110 billion in food and economic assistance in the last 30 years generosity that finds no parallel in world history. It is also the system of free enterprise that has fired the imagination and determination of our people. No mountain has ever been too high nor has any ocean ever been too wide to cross. To cite but one example, you may recall that a century ago the Civil War practically destroyed the country's whaling fleet, bringing a collapse to the industry that provided the major source of lighting. Within a few years the price of whale oil shot up from a few pennies to over $2 a gallon. Cries went up across the land, "We are ruined." What happened? Men with vision who had discovered a way to make kerosene began marketing kerosene lamps in place of whale oil lamps and before the end of the century two new industries -petroleum and electrical -- were rapidly developing. As for whale oil lamps, they were sent to the museum - - a useful reminder of how our system has been able to respond to crises. It is also the system of free enterprise that has taught us never to give up, never to fall prey to the cynics, and the preachers of gloom and doom. That fine old gentleman, Thomas Edison, is said to have tried 586 experiments to find the right filament for an electric light. None of them worked. "It's a shame," his assistant told him, "to have tried 586 times and failed." "But we haven't had 586 failures," Edison replied. "But, sir, we have," cried the assistant. - 5"No," said Edison, "we now know 586 ways that won't work and won t have to be tried again." Edison would not allow himself to be defeated, and eventually, of course, he made one of those breakthroughs that has changed the course of civilization. Edison was never a quitter. To him, as he once said, "genius is one percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration." Yet today, I submit to you that it is this same system of free enterprise -- the system that has given us so much -- that has been placed in greater danger than at anytime in my memory. For years America has be-en drifting away from her moorings, lured by the false promise of those who say that the government can do the job better than the people themselves and that we can no longer trust the individual to look out for himself. h We see the threat to free enterprise in the growing domination of government spending within our economy. Back in the 1920s, •:L2 cents out of every dollar spent in the United States was spent by the government. Today 33 cents out of every dollar is spent by the government. And if these trends continue, before the end of this •:entury -- when most of you will still be in the prime of life -i;he government could be spending as much as 60 cents out of every lollar. If we ever reach that dreaded day when you spend half of ;very day just earning money for the government, you had better have tt'our hand on more than your wallet: you will also find that your personal and political freedoms may be stolen. As President Ford ha aid, "a government big enough to give us everything we want is a overnment big enough to take from us everything we have." Why has government spending exploded? Because, I would suggest, e have been willing to assign to the government the responsibility or solving many of the problems that people should be solving for hemselves. We being with the best of intentions but wind up with ocial programs that are spinning out of control. The food stamp rogram began as a small, $14 million experiment in 1962. By 1976, t will cost over $6.6 billion a year -- a 47,000 percent increase -id it is a well-known haven for the chislers and rip-off artists. ily a few weeks ago, a national magazine advertised a booklet that old people how to obtain food stamps even if they earned as much as L6,000 a year. So much for the spirit of self-reliance. i We also see the threat to free enterprise arising in the army of Wernment regulators that has been marshalled along the banks of the >tomac. The regulators are a little different from the traditional ireaucrat. There was a time when a story about Pope John rang :ue for Washington as well. The Pope was asked by a visitor how j',ny people worked in the Vatican. He thought for a moment and swered, "I would say about half." The regulators are changing that adition in Washington: they are all working full-time, and they em to be working overtime on the business community. f - 6Let's suppose for a moment that you lived in Chicago and borrowed some money to start a small trucking business to carry freight to Cleveland, Ohio. That seems easy enough: Cleveland is not tar from Chicago. Should you then rush out and invest in a few trucks? Sorry, the first thing you should do is file a request with the Interstate Commerce Commission. That will cost you $350 in filing tees, and you'll probably need a private lawyer to boot. Well, you say, the request must be only a formality and you can get started in a tew weeks time. Sorry, but the request will almost inevitably lead to legal hearings and you will have to prove that existing service to Cleveland is inadequate and that existing carriers cannot be made to provide it. The average request now takes 10 months to process and some have been known to take over three years. Protests by existing carriers often lead the ICC to give only restricted approval to requests from new carriers and, especially along well-traveled routes, to deny many requests altogether. Undaunted, you wait it out, obtain your approval, and decide that the best way to get a break on your competitors is to reduce the prices you charge to your customers. Sorry, your proposed rate reduction will probably be protested by other carriers and then suspended by the ICC. In effect, the government will force you to charge higher prices, even though you could afford to charge lower ones. Nonetheless, even with the higher rates you win a few customers with exceptionally good service, and new customers appear, asking that you carry their goods from Cleveland back to Chicago. Good, you say, your business is expanding. Sorry, the ICC won't allow it unless your original certificate specifically authorizes you to carry those products on the backhaul to Cleveland. The ICC requires instead that you drive back to Chicago with an empty truck - - a practice that is still frequent even in a day of high cost energy. Despite all of these problems, you persevere and customers soon want you to carry their goods not only to Cleveland but also downstate to Columbus, Ohio. Sorry, but your ICC certificate says you can only go between Chicago and Cleveland; to drive to Columbus, you'll have to get a new certificate, and that means you'll have to start the whole process all over again -- lawyers, forms hearings, rate settings, the works. At that point, you might be justified in throwing up your hands and sending off for that pamphlet which tells you how to collect food stamps. I wish that I were exaggerating the complexities and frustrations of dealing with the government bureaucracy, but I'm sad to say that it's all true. In this and a countless number of other ways, the Government's regulatory process has become so heavy handed that it is beginning to strangle the free enterprise system in this country. Nor do regulations provide much help for consumers, for they breed inefficiency and run up operating costs -- costs that reflect themselves ment business of them." than in the has GM auto tens producing proven system of industry, billions that incars, this it once of country. is it would dollars noted simply be that, not Even ofthe equipped inflated Ralph "If U.S. there Nader, government prices. to is replace the one Your arch producing thing thegoverncritic private worse r^ - 7Most of our major public institutions in this country -- the government, our schools and our places of worship -- have all declined in public esteem in recent years, but none has suffered as severe a drop as business. Young people in particular show a dismaying lack of trust in the business community: to many of your peers, profits are not properly understoodtas the basis for creating new jobs but as an example of human greed; corporations are thought to be raping the environment; and big oil companies are said to be conspiring against the consumer. The misconceptions that exist about business today are staggering. A recent poll conducted by George Gallup among college students found that the average estimate of business profits was 45 cents on every dollar; in reality, profits are only one-tenth that amount. It's that kind of misunderstanding which has led to laws in the United States that impose a heavier tax burden on corporations than do the tax laws of almost any other major country in the world. Some two hundred years ago, when the founding fathers gathered in Philadelphia, there was a great deal of secrecy about the constitution they were drafting. As their meetings broke up, a woman rushed up to Ben Franklin and asked, "Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?" Franklin looked at her a second and then answered, "A Republic, Madam, if you can keep it." That, my friends, is the question we face today: can we keep this great free enterprise system that our forefathers helped to provide for us in the early days of our nation? Two hundred years ago, when America fought for her independence, do you realize what that struggle was all about? Economic freedom -- that was the central issue. Now, as we celebrate our Bicentennial, it is certainly ironic that economic freedom has become a central issue once again -and once again, we must fight to secure our liberties. Let us not deny that there are flaws in this system. It does not provide all of the answers to our problems and it creates problems of its own. But it has proved over and over again in history that it provides greater opportunity for career development and personal fulfillment, greater material wealth for more people, and a better guarantee of our personal and political freedoms than any other system ever known. Instead of blindly condemning the system, let us open our eyes to its faults and work to correct them. Instead of tearing down the foundations of America, let us build upon them. And instead of turning our backs and dropping out when the going is too rough for any one of us, let us unite and join forces so that we will have the strength of ten. In many ways, I find that young people are way out in front of the rest of society. You insist upon straight answers. You will no longer accept rhetoric in place of reality, promises in place - 8of performance. If I understand the voice of the young, you are saying that our loss of faith in our ideals does not mean that the ideals have failed but that we have failed to live up to them. And a growing number of young people are beginning to recognize the grave dangers which overweening governmental power poses to their own hopes for personal fulfillment. Through all the ages of man, one of the greatest threats to individual freedom and individua progress has been concentrated power -- whether that power has resided in the State, the church, big business, big labor, or whatevi Now more young people are frequently telling us -- and rightly so, I believe -- that our democracy's vast and growing governmental machinery is rapidly becoming a new menace to individual freedom in the United States. In my generation, there are many men and women who are struggle to reform and preserve the democracy that you will inherit. We are trying to introduce a greater sense of discipline in government spending so that our Nation will not drown in the red ink of budget deficits and there will be enough money to invest in the future. We trying to lift the dead hand of governmental regulation so that the spirit of free enterprise can flourish again. And as we work to end those abuses which do exist in the business community, we are also trying to educate more Americans about the unparalleled virtues of 01 political and economic system. Yet my generation knows full well that even if we can stop the tide running toward a government managed economy, it will be up to your generation to reverse that tide and to rebuild and revitalize our democracy for the twenty-first century. Our challenge is a great one, but yours perhaps will be greater still. The world will long remember the chapter that you write into human history. There is an old, familiar story -- perhaps you have heard it -about a wise man in Damascus who could answer any riddle in life. One day a young boy decided to play a trick on the old man. The boy said to himself: "I will capture a bird, hold it cupped in my hand, and ask the old man if it is dead or alive. If he says dead, I shall let it fly away, but if he says alive, I shall crush it in my hands. The old man shall certainly give me the wrong answer." So the young boy caught a bird and went to the wise old man. "Is the bird dead or alive?" he asked. "My son,"said the man, "the answer to that question is in your hands." Shall freedom live or perish in America? My friends, the answe to that question is in your hands. Thank you. - oOo - Departmental theTREASURY HINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. August 12, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $6,300,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued August 21, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $3,100,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated May 22, 1975, and to mature November 20, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XY7), originally issued in the amount of $2,800,560,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $3,200,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated August 21, 1975, and to mature February 19, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YU4). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing August 21, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,305,370,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,977,265,000 . These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, August 18, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positioi with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject. to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on August 21, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing ment. August 21, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954, the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this noti< prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. August 14, 1975 TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice\ invites tenders for 364-day Treasury bills to be dated August 24, 1976 August 26, 1975, and to mature (CUSIP No. 912793 ZRQ . The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing August 26, 1975. Tenders in the amount of $2,210 million, or thereabouts, will be accepted from the public, which holds $2,205 million of the maturing bills. Additional amounts of the bills may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, which hold $598 million of the maturing bills. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value) and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Wednesday, August 20, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without (OYER) -2deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities, Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will he accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on August 26, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing equal treatment. August 26, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. ^x Contact: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE L. F. Potts x2951 August 14, 1975 ANTIDUMPING INVESTIGATION INITIATED ON KNITTING MACHINERY FOR LADIES' SEAMLESS HOSIERY FROM ITALY Acting Assistant Secretary of the Treasury James B. Clawson announced today the initiation of an antidumping investigation on imports of knitting machinery for ladies' seamless hosiery from Italy. Notice of this action will be published in the Federal Register of August 15, 1975. The Treasury Department's announcement followed a summary investigation conducted by the U.S. Customs Service after receipt of a petition alleging that dumping was occurring in the United States. The information received tends to indicate that the prices of the merchandise to unrelated U.S. purchasers are less than the constructed value. Imports of the subject merchandise from Italy during CY 1974 were valued at roughly $2.25 million. Contact: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE R. B. Self x8256 August 14, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATIONS ON CHEESE FROM FINLAND AND SWEDEN Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today that the Treasury Department is initiating investigations under the Countervailing Duty Law against imports of cheese from Finland and Sweden. A "Notice of Receipt of Countervailing Duty Petition and Initiation of Investigation" will be published on these cases in the Federal Register of August 15, 1975. Under the Countervailing Duty Law (19 U.S.C. 1303) the Secretary of the Treasury is required to assess an additional (countervailing) duty on imported merchandise equal to the amount of the "bounty or grant" which has been paid or bestowed on such merchandise. The Treasury Department must issue a preliminary determination as to whether or not a "bounty or grant" is being paid or bestowed on cheese from Finland by no later than December 10, 1975, and on Swedish cheese by no later than December 18, 1975. Final determinations must be issued on Finland by no later than June 10, 1976, and Sweden by no later than June 18, 1976. During 1974, imports of cheese from Finland were valued at $11.2 million. Swedish cheese imports during the same year were $1.5 million. In another action under the Countervailing Duty Law, Mr. Macdonald announced that the period of time for written views provided in a series of preliminary determinations published in the June 30 and July 3, 1975 Federal Register would be extended until September 3, 1975. / 6rt£^*Z ->M 7J> 7. tV 70 ?//?/ Cfr5y^fr ?-^2- 9<9 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 14, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $2.0 billion,of the $4.9 billion of tenders received from the public for the 2-year notes auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield 8.15% 1/ Highest yield Average yield 8.29% 8.25% The interest rate on the notes will be 8-1/4%. At the 8-1/4% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.180 High-yield price Average-yield price 99.926 99.998 The $2.0 billion of accepted tenders includes 27% of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $0.5 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $10 million of tenders were accepted at the averageyield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Exoepting 17 tenders totaling $9,920,000 Contact: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE L. F. Potts x2951 August 15, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES TENTATIVE REVOCATION OF DUMPING FINDING ON POTASSIUM CHLORIDE FROM FRANCE Acting Assistant Secretary of the Treasury James B. Clawson announced today a tentative determination to revoke a finding of dumping in the case of potassium chloride, otherwise known as muriate of potash, from France under the Antidumping Act, 1921, as amended. Notice of this decision will appear in the Federal Register of August 18, 1975. A finding of dumping with respect to potassium chloride from France was published in the Federal Register of December 19, 1969. The Federal Register notice of August 18, 1975, will state in part the finding that the sole exporter, Societe Commerciale des Potasses et de 1'Azote, previously known as Societe Commerciale des Potasses d'Alsace, is no longer selling, or likely to sell, potassium chloride to the United States at less than fair value and that assurances have been received that future sales of potassium chloride to the United States will not be made at less than fair value. There were no imports of potassium chloride from France during the period January 1973 through March 1975. "•• W W — J ~ Departmental theJREASURY iwrrmw DC. nr ormn HINGTON, 20220 TPI EDunwc MUHA on>ii TELEPHONE W04-2041 j| UV- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 18, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $3.1 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $3.2 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on August 21, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing November 20, 1975 Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ High Low Average 98.381a/ 6.405% 98.363 6.476% 98.369 6.452% a/ Excepting 1 tender of $140,000 ¥/ Excepting 1 tender of $605,000 6.62% 6.69% 6.67% 26-week bills maturing February 19, 1976 Price 96.478b/ 96.450 96.461 Discount Rate 6.967% 7.022% 7-000% Investment Rate 1/ 7.34% 7.40% 7.38% Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 15%. Tenders at the loxv price for the 26-week bills were allotted 97% TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE' DISTRICTS: District Received Boston 43,785,000 $ New York ,800,020,000 Philadelphia 33,800,000 Cleveland 55,595,000 Richmond 46,460,000 Atlanta 41,890,000 Chicago 296,420,000 St. Louis 51,225,000 Minneapolis 22,685,000 Kansas City 64,805,000 Dallas 32,405,000 San Francisco 243,475,000 TOTALS$4,732,565,000 Accepted $ 33,055,000 2,456,995,000 28,800,000 45,595,000 33,760,000 38,940,000 183,420,000 36,405,000 14,285,000 49,525,000 23,405,000 156,385,000 Received $ 55,905,000 4,420,095,000 59,515,000 159,610,000 57,085,000 39,300,000 699,055,000 52,005,000 46,545,000 26,355,000 31,335,000 269,290,000 $3,100,570,000 c/ $5,916,095,000 Accepted $ 18,755,000 2,278,245,000 44,515,000 78,860,000 31,270,000 31,400,000 543,405,000 44,555,000 28,395,000 18,490,000 11,835,000 70,605,000 $3,200,330,000 d/ £/ Includes $484,185,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. £/ Includes $232,550,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equiyalent coupon-issue yield. FOR RELEASE AT 12:00 NOON EDT STATEMENT OF SIDNEY L. JONES ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR ECONOMIC POLICY BEFORE THE ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN ACCOUNTING ASSOCIATION TUCSON, ARIZONA AUGUST 19, 1975 ECONOMIC POLICY AT THE TURNING POINT The famous author George Santayana once wrote: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Analysis indicates that each repetition requires a higher price to be paid. While public attention is focused on current developments, as the economy moves from severe recession into moderate recovery, the major challenge is to plan beyond existing problems and uncertainties. Economic policies at this turning point must concentrate on the persistent problems of inflation, excessive unemployment, low productivity, capital formation, energy resource development and conservation and international economic instability. Thirty years ago the Employment Act of 1946 declared the objective of national economic policy to be: "To promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power" through actions consistent with "other essential considerations of national policy" in ways "calculated to foster and promote free competitive enterprise and the general welfare . . . . " Within this general framework specific fiscal and monetary policies have achieved mixed economic and social results with occasional recessions to remind us that economic growth is not guaranteed. The United States has generally experienced rising output, expanding personal consumption, relatively low levels of inflation and growing employment opportunities. At the same time, the dominant influence of rising expectations has created a confrontation between two basic economic truths: (1) the list of claims against the national output of goods and services is literally endless; and (2) human, material and capital resources are limited even in the advanced U. S. economy. This obvious contradiction requires a more careful ranking of claim priorities and effective management of economic policies. In particular, we need more stable fiscal and monetary programs which do not overreact to fluctuating economic developments. Over the past decade WS-375 recession and expansion trends have too often been exaggerated by a problem frequentoffine-tuning deciding what policy to do adjustments. as it is oneIt ofissustaining not so much basic 0 - 2 policies long enough to encourage stable growth and longerterm planning. I. Current Economic Outlook Current policy decisions must begin with an understanding of the background and current status of the economy. During the mid-1960*s the simultaneous escalation of public spending for the Vietnam War and various social programs combined with a capital investment boom in the private sector to overheat the economy and create accelerating inflation pressures. That rapid expansion was followed by a relatively mild recession and gradual improvement in reducing inflation. Then a sharp econoroi recovery from 1971 through 1973 resulted in an annual rate of increase in the "real" GNP of 5.5 percent which was well above the long-term capacity of the U. S. economy to expand real output approximately 4 percent each year. During that same three-year period the average annual increase in the GNP price deflator was 4.7 percent and unemployment declined from 6 percent to 4.6 percent by October 1973 as 7.2 million additional people were employed. The trade deficits of 1971 and 1972 were reversed and a small surplus was reported in 1973. In general, the performance of the U. S. economy was impressive throughout that period but the pace of expansion could not be sustained. The housing and automobile industries began to falter as inflation surged upward early in 19 73. Raw material and productive capacity shortages also restricted growth. Finally, the oil embargo declared against the United States in October 1973 disrupted economic activity and created great uncertainties. In the first quarter of 19 74 real output declined sharply at a 7.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate. The economy then stabilized temporarily in mid-year before rapidly deteriorating into a severe recession in the fall as residential construction, automobile sales, business investment, and consumer spending all declined. During the last three months of 19 74 real output fell at a 9.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate and it became clear that economic policies had to focus on reversing the sharp deterioration in output and final sales without abandoning the necessary effort to control the double-digit inflation which had been largely responsible for the serious erosion of home building* consumer spending and business investment. By yearend 19 74 some analysts believed that the sharp deterioration in economic activity would continue leading to a - 3 world-wide depression comparable to the traumatic experiences of the 1930's. Others argued that economic recovery would begin long before such catastrophic developments occurred. The Administration based its policy recommendations on analysis that a turning point would occur about mid-year if three fundamental adjustments could be accomplished: (1) the unwanted accumulation of inventories could be cleared out and new orders increased; (2) "real incomes" of consumers could be restored by significantly reducing the level of inflation and initiating tax reductions and rebates; and (3) the "lay-off rate"—the number of workers losing their jobs—could be reduced so that unemployment would stop rising so rapidly and consumer confidence could be strengthened. During the first quarter of 1975 real output of goods and services continued to decline at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.4 percent but economic conditions were already beginning to shift. During those first three months of 1975 personal consumption, net exports of goods and services and government spending at all levels reported strong gains. Most of the economic weakness was concentrated in the private investment sector where residential construction and business spending declined and a massive turnaround in inventories occurred. During the last three months of 1974 unwanted inventories were accumulated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $18 billion. In the first quarter of 19 75 the situation was reversed as inventories were liquidated at an adjusted annual rate of $19 billion. Since final sales were basically flat, the severe drop in total output reported during the first three months of this year was a direct result of the large swing in inventories which was a necessary prereguisite for future recovery. As the spring progressed other signals that an economic adjustment was occurring became evident. The current rate of consumer price increases dropped from the double-digit level of 1974 to a 6 to 7 percent zone and the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 was finally passed in March. As a result, real disposable personal income (stated in constant dollars) increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21.5 percent during the second quarter of 1975 following five consecutive quarterly declines. This improvement was reflected in strong retail sales. The "lay-off" rate declined steadily throughout the first half of 1975, employment began rising again in April and the average number of hours worked and the amount of overtime increased. As the inventory liquidation cleaned out unwanted stocks new orders turned up in April and industrial production bottomed - 4 out early in the summer. Exports continued at a strong pace throughout this period and rising government spending provided anticipated stimulus. The downward slide in new home and automobile sales finally stabilized and modest gains occurred in both sectors by late spring. Publication of preliminary GNP figures for the second quarter indicates that the sharp decline in real output has ended and that the U. S. economy has entered into the expected recovery period. The level of real economic activity (adjusted to remove the effects of price changes) was basically stable— down only 0.3 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate— according to the preliminary estimates which will be revised Thursday. This turnaround represents a major improvement following five consecutive quarterly declines in the real GNP. While it is gratifying that the turning point was reached sooner than expected and the pace of recovery is somewhat stronger than anticipated, this shift in direction does not mean that everything is now fine. To the contrary, a turning point at the bottom of a cycle represents the worst combination of economic conditions experienced during a recession. It is likely that there will be many more economic disappointments during the coming months as the moderate recovery accelerates. But it is certainly encouraging to note the upward tilt of most economic statistics, particularly: (1) the improvement in employment and the related drop in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 9.2 percent in May to 8.4 percent in July; (2) the increase in retail and wholesale inventories in June in response to several months of strong sales; (3) the second consecutive monthly gain in industrial production reported for July; and (4) the strong upward trend, beginning in March, of the new composite index of twelve leading statistical indicators. These developments provide a necessary foundation for a sustained recovery into 1976 based on rising personal spending which will eventually stimulate a resumption of business investment to meet the demand for goods and services. Although the shape and speed of this recovery is still uncertain, because of the dominant role of inventory adjustments and the continuing problems in the housing and automobile sectors, moderate expansion of economic activity is now clearly underway. - 5 - 7/ II. Economic Policies While there is widespread agreement that a moderate-to-strong economic recovery has begun, there is justified concern about its sustainability. The severe recession just experienced clearly demonstrated that the U.S. economy can be constrained by shortages of oil and other industrial raw materials. Consumer sentiment is still fragile and directly dependent upon future employment developments. Business capital investment must be increased if the nearterm expansion is to continue and needed productive capacity and future jobs are to be created. Because the immediate pattern of business investment will be largely determined by the strength of personal consumption, it is crucial at this stage of the recovery that a surge of new inflation pressures be avoided. Prices are still increasing at an unsatisfactory seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 to 7 percent. An escalation of current prices—or of inflationary expectations—during the next few months would quickly disrupt both personal and business spending plans which would, in turn, curtail both the strength and sustainability of the recovery. Therefore, current policies must guard against fiscal and monetary excesses which would disrupt the current expansion and complicate the problems of creating a more stable economy. The fiscal dilemma of rapidly increasing government expenditures and lagging revenues continues to distort economic planning. During the past decade fiscal policies have had to adapt to the surge of spending for the Vietnam War and various social spending programs, the major impact of inflation and the sharp erosion of revenues and increased transfer payments caused by two recessions. From Fiscal Year 1966 through Fiscal Year 1975, Federal budget outlays increased from $134.6 billion to $325.1 billion (Table 1). During that decade the cumulative budget deficit totaled $14 8.7 billion and the "net increase" in borrowing for various "off-budget" programs excluded from the Federal budget totaled an additional $149.7 billion. In attempting to respond to the severe recession, the President originally submitted a proposed Federal budget for Fiscal Year 1976 which called for outlays of $349.4 billion and a deficit of $51.9 billion. The mid-session review published May 30 subsequently increased the expected outlays to $358.9 billion and the deficit to $59.9 billion. In a separate action by Congress, their first concurrent Resolution on the budget published May 9 recommended outlays of $367.0 billion and a deficit of $68.8 billion. Whatever the final figures turn out to be it is obvious that another large increase in spending and a record-level budget deficit will occur. - 6 - The President also asked for a temporary cut in taxes to help stimulate the economic recovery expected by mid-year. In March the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 was finally passed which provided approximately $20 billion of net tax relief. About $17 billion of the tota was allocated to individuals in the form of a rebate on 1974 taxes and temporary reductions for 1975 were provided by increasing the standard deductions, an additional $30 exemption credit, a 5 percent housing credit and an earned income credit for eligible low-income families. Business tax relief was provided by increasing the invest ment tax credit to 10 percent and by raising the surtax exemption fo: small firms. At the same time, the depletion allowance for oil and natural gas was phased out and limitations added in the use of foreii tax credits associated with foreign oil and gas operations. Dur the next few months important decisions about possible extension of parts of the 1975 tax cuts must be made as the pattern of economic recovery becomes clearer. The rapid growth of Federal spending during the past decade has increasingly eroded our fiscal flexibility. Many government programs involve an "entitlement authority" which makes the actual outlays open-ended depending upon the eligibility rules and benefit levels established. There has been a tendency to liberalize both guidelines and benefits for Federal retirement, social security and other income maintenance programs are now indexed so that they rise automatically as inflation occurs. Other outlays are required by specific legislation and contractual agreements. As a result, the Federal budget is increasingly committed to the priorities of the past which makes it difficult to respond to current problems and future claims. Approximately three-fourths of the Federal budget is now considered to be "uncontrollable" because of existing entitlement and contractual obligations. In theory, there is no such thing as an "uncontrollable" budget commitment since Congress controls the annual appropriations process. In reality, existing programs are rarely eliminated or reduced and new claims are typically "added on" to current outlays. The near-term prospects are for continued increases in outlays and more Federal budget deficits. This trend can either be modified by Congressional action or resources can be transferred from the private sector which would mean a further increase in the role of government in the economy. A second important problem concerns the proper role of the Federal budget. In preparing the budget plan government officials are actually allocating the human and material resources available and determining the division of responsibilities between the public and private sectors. This is clearly a proper function. However, since the 1930's the Federal budget has been used more and more as a tool for economic stabilization. Increased outlays and resultant deficits to replace are private defended demand by claiming during periods that Federal of slack. spending The is size required of the 73 - 7 - Federal budget is then manipulated to meet current economic stabilization goals in this system of economic management. Unfortunately the balance turns out to be asymmetrical, because deficits usually occur during periods of both strong and weak economic activity. Federal budget deficits have been recorded in fourteen out of the last fifteen fiscal years—or forty of the last forty-eight years—and more are expected according to our current five-year projections. The overall results of using the budget for stabilization purposes are not clear because of the complexity of the total economy and the lagged impact of such policies. But one specific result does seem obvious: The creation of new spending programs during periods of economic slack typically creates a permanent sequence of outlays that continues far beyond the immediate need for stabilization. Hopefully, increased realism in determining future fiscal policies will result from the recent creation of a Congressional Budget Office which is required to provide overall Federal budget targets for receipts and outlays for the guidance of the new Congressional budget committees. In the past, appropriations have been approved by individual committees so that it was impossible to develop a comprehensive overview of the total impact of the specific legislative actions. Under the new procedures, the two Congressional budget committees will prepare a concurrent Resolution establishing the basic budget goals and identifying their impact on the entire economy. The actions of each appropriation committee will then be combined and compared with the budget committee recommendations before preparing a second concurrent Resolution for Congress to approve. A trial run using these procedures over the past few months for coordinating spending decisions has been encouraging and a new sense of priorities and discipline may well result from this new approach. The combination of increased government spending and tax reductions has provided extensive stimulus for the economy in moving back to a recovery pattern. Given the severity of the recession, particularly the large increase in unemployment, a sizable budget deficit during the past year was a suitable response. But such fiscal actions must be carefully controlled, even during difficult periods, to avoid more permanent erosion of our future flexibility. Fiscal responsibility is particularly important in providing a necessary balance with monetary policies. The Federal Reserve System is too often required to bear a disproportionate - 8 burden in restraining inflation pressures whenever government spending and tax policies create excessive stimulus. Extensive criticism was directed at monetary authorities during the last few months of 1974 and early 1975 because of the very low rate of growth of the money supply at an annual rate of only 1 percent during the six months period ending January 15, 1975. Since late January the money stock has increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.4 percent. Combining these two periods indicates that the money supply has increased about 5 percent over the past year with almost all of the growth occurring during the last few months. Given the volatile nature of short-term monetary developments, a longer-term perspective of monetary policy indicates that officials are moving toward the policy commitment of keeping the money supply growth in the 5 to 7-1/2 percent zone while also giving careful attention to interest rates and other monetary measures. This policy goal appears to be a reasonable target when SUMMARY combined with the existing III. stimulus being provided by fiscal actions. Although the recovery is apparently well underway, the next few months are likely to be a turbulent period as fiscal and monetary policies will probably be under intense pressure to respond to specific inflation and unemployment developments. In such a volatile environment, those who advocate more stable economic policies will be considered naive at best and insensitive at worst. Nevertheless, there must be a longer-term perspective in determining policies if we are to ever avoid the "stop-go11 results of the past. Recent events clearly demonstrate that the U.S. economy will not function properly with high single or double-digit inflation just as it cannot survive for very long with such excessive levels cf unemployment. The constant shifting of policies and resulting uncertainties about the lagged impact of such actions has too often frustrated the basic goal of promoting "maximum employment, production and purchasing power." The beginning point in adopting more stable fiscal and monetary policies is a restoration of public confidence in the government's ability and willingness to establish longer-term economic goals. As members of the American Accounting Association you have an important education role in describing how the American economy works and in preserving the integrity of the comprehensive system of financial accounts which provides most of the information required for public and private sector economic decisions. As you fulfill this important assignment, I hope that you will also communicate to your students, business associates and the general public a greater awareness of the productivity and creativity of the U.S. economy when it is allowed to function properly. - 0TABLE 1 FEDERAL BUDGETS CHANGES IN THE UNIFIED BUDGET OUTLAYS BY FISCAL YEAR, 1961-1976 (dollars in billions) Fiscal Year over Preceding Year 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Federal Outlays Dollar Increase Percentage Increase Surplus or Deficit $ 97.8 106.8 111.3 118.6 118.4 134.7 158.3 178.8 184.5 196.6 211.4 231.9 246.5 268.4 325.1 $ 5.6 9.0 4.5 7.3 -0.2 16.3 23.6 20.5 5.7 12.1 14.8 20.5 14.6 21.9 56.7 6.1 9.2 4.2 6.1 -3.4 -7.1 -4.8 -5.9 -1.6 -3.8 -8.7 -25.2 +3.2 -2.8 -23.0 -23.2 -14.3 -3.5 -44.2 — 13.8 17.5 13.0 3.2 6.6 7.5 9.7 6.3 8.8 21.1 Source; Economic Report of the President, February 1975, Table C-64, p.324, for years 1961 through 1974; 1975 figure published in joint statement of Secretary William E. Simon and Director James T. Lynn concerning "Budget Results for Fiscal Year 1975," July 28, 1975. oOo TELEPHONE W04-2041 HINGTON, DC. 20220 ?£ FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. August 19, 1975 TREASURYfS WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $6,300,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued August 28, 1975, as follows: 92-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $3,100,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated May 29, 1975, and to mature November 28, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XZ4) , originally issued in the amount of $2,802,710,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $3,200,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated August 28, 1975, and to mature February 26, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YV2). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing August 28, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,352,665,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,578 430 000 These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, August 25, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the . Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on August 28, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing August 28, 1975. ment. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954, the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice* prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Contact: Helene L. Melzer 964-8706 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 20, 1975 ARTHUR D. KALLEN NAMED TREASURY'S BUDGET CHIEF Assistant Secretary (Administration) Warren F. Brecht has announced the selection of Arthur D. Kallen as Director of the Office of Budget and Finance. Mr. Kallen fills the vacancy left by Edward J. Widmayer, who retired last December. In announcing the appointment, Mr. Brecht stated: "The Director of the Office of Budget and Finance is one of the most vital and influential positions in the entire Treasury Department. Mr. Kallen comes highly recommended by his past and present superiors at the Office of Management and Budget. We in Treasury consider ourselves most fortunate in attracting an individual of his caliber." Until his Treasury appointment, Mr. Kallen had been deputy division chief for the Community and Veterans Affairs Division of the Office of Management and Budget since 1973. He was responsible for administering programs relating to budgeting and management for key Federal agencies, including the Departments of Transportation and Housing, the Veterans Administration, Federal Communications Commission, Action, the District of Columbia and civil rights agencies. He developed budget policies, legislative proposals and management improvements for agencies and advised top 0MB and White House officials on those issues. In his long association with 0MB and its predecessor, the Bureau of the Budget, dating back to 1960, Mr. Kallen also worked on budget and management policies for the Departments of Justice, Treasury, the Post Office, the Civil Service Commission and the Executive Office of the (more) President. The new Treasury Budget Director was born in Chicago April 27, 1927, attended Wilson Junior College and earned a master's degree in political science at the University of Chicago in 1951. Mr. Kallen began his government service as a management intern in the Navy Department's Bureau of Ships in 1951 and served as a training director and a computer systems analyst, moving on to management analyst at the Bureau of the Budget in 1960 'where he was affiliated with the Government Organizations Branch. As Treasury's Budget Officer, he will supervise budget planning and implementation for the Department and coordinate budget operations for all the bureaus. Mr. Kallen is married to the former Vivian Margaris also of Chicago. They have two children and reside in Arlington, Virginia. oOo Tie Department of thefREASURY HINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 August 20, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ft RESULTS OF TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL AUCTION Tenders for $2,210,000,000 of 52-week Treasury bills to be issued to the public, to be dated August 26, 1975, and to mature August 24, 1976, x;ere opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: (Excepting 3 tenders totaling $1,020,000) Price High Low Average - 92.620 92.570 92.588 Discount Rate 7 .299% 7 348% 7 .331% Investment Rate " (Equivalent Coupon-Issue Yieldj 7.86% 7.91% 7.89% TOTAL TENDERS FROM THE PUBLIC RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS District Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco TOTAL Accepted Received $ 140,155,000 4,426,835,000 28,120,000 276,080,000 87,850,000 17,245,000 782,740,000 55,105,000 108,665,000 33,105,000 28,980,000 453,220,000 $ 46,605,000 1,585,880,000 3,120,000 113,080,000 20,100,000 13,145,000 267,720,000 11,105,000 35,665,000 20,605,000 6,980,000 86,245,000 $6,438,100,000 $2,210,250,000 The $2,210,250,000 of accepted tenders includes 23% of the amount of bills bid for at the low price and $189,070,000 of noncompetitive tenders from the public accepted at the average price. In addition, $679,165,000 of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. a> 1-1 o- *• E <o tederai nnancing ranK </> CM « O WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 /*" CM ?/ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 21, 1975 SUMMARY OF LENDING ACTIVITY August 1 - August 15, 1975 Federal Financing Bank lending activity for the period August 1 through August 15, 1975, was announced as follows by Roland H. Cook, Secretary: On August 1, 1975, the Government of the Republic of China borrowed $10.1 million from the FFB under the Foreign Military Sales Act, guaranteed by the Department of Defense. The interest rate is 8.231, and the loan matures September 30, 1983. The General Services Administration made the following drawings against commitments with the Bank: Date August 4 August 12 Amount $2,500 $119,178 Interest Rate 8.605& 8.6951 Maturity 6/15/05 11/15/04 The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare made two drawings against its commitment with the Bank: Date August August Amount 3,600,000 1,475,000 Interest Rate 8.6351 8.725% Maturity 7/1/99 7/1/99 On August 8, 1975, the FFB made its first advance under a June 1, 1975 agreement with Amtrak, in connection with a sale and lease back agreement by Amtrak of 25 General Electric diesel electric locomotives. The first advance, in the amount of $838,853.96 and at a rate of interest of 7.92%, was to finance the purchase of two locomotives. The advance will be repaid in equal installments with a final maturity of 1988. On August 11, the US Railway Association borrowed $10 million from the Bank under USRA Note #3 which matures on August 25, 1975. The rate of interest is 6.827%. - Over - The FFB made the following loans to electric utility companies guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration: Interest Date Borrower Amount Rate Maturity August 13 Colorado-Ute Electric $ 3,900,000 8.14% 8/13/77 Association, Inc. August 15 Oglethorpe Electric $81,608,000 8.68% 12/31/09 Membership Corp. Interest payments are made quarterly on the above REA loans. On August 15, Amtrak, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, borrowed $10 million from the Bank against its $100 million line of credit which matures September 30, 1975. The interest rate is 6.734%. Federal Financing Bank loans outstanding on August 15, 1975 total $14 billion. oOo r/t/yy \ LfvUj % 7^Z <?-yi, a'"/ft"" £> Departmental theTREASURY , D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 If 8 73 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 21, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 4-YEAR 1-MONTH TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $2.0 billion of the $4.3 billion of tenders received from the public for the 4-year 1-month notes, Series F-1979, auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield 8.45% 1/ Highest yield Average yield 8.56% 8.54% The interest rate on the notes will be 8-1/2%. At the 8-1/2% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.145 • High-yield price Average-yield price 99.773 99.840 The $2.0 billion of accepted tenders includes 90 % of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $0.5 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $50 million of tenders were accepted at the average-yield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. II Excepting 13 tenders totaling $617,000 / FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. August 22, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $6,300,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued September 4, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount,of $3,100,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of.bills dated June 5, 1975, and to mature December 4, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 YA8), originally issued in the amount of $2,700,995,000, the additional and original bills to be freely _., , interchangeable. ,,...--., 182-day bills, for $3,200,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated September 4, £975, and to mature March 4, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793. YW0). . , . . . , The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing September 4, 1975, outstanding in the amount,of $5,303,550,000, of,which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities,., presently hold $1,904,575,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. . The bills will be issued on a discpunt basis un4er competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form,in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated.bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve.Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Friday, August 29, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of.competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions 'I with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. own account. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves 'the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on September 4, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing September 4, 1975. ment. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954.the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this noticef prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or • MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESS August 22, 1975 Edwin H. Yeo, III, Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs of the Department of the Treasury, will hold a press briefing at 3:30 p.m., Wednesday, August 27, in Room 4121 Main Treasury. The briefing will provide background on international monetary issues and the IMF/IBRD annual meetings scheduled to be held the first week of September. oOo f7 Contact: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE H.C. Shelley x8256 August 25, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY COUNTERVAILING DUTY DETERMINATION Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today a preliminary determination in the countervailing duty investigation of glazed ceramic wall tile from the Philippines. Under the U.S. Countervailing Duty Law (19 U.S.C. 1303), the Secretary of the Treasury is required to issue a preliminary determination within six months after a petition has been received. The petition in this case was received on February 26, 1975, and a notice to that effect was published in the Federal Register of April 9, 1975. The Treasury has until February 26, 1976 in which to issue a final determination. Treasury's preliminary affirmative determination indicates :hat bounties or grants are being paid or bestowed within the cleaning of the statute. If a final affirmative determination .s made, the Countervailing Duty Law requires the Secretary )f the Treasury to assess an additional duty on merchandise >enefiting from such bounties or grants. Notice of this action will appear in the Federal Register f August 26, 1975. During calendar year 1974, imports of lazed ceramic wall tile from the Philippines were valued at 1.6 million. 'TREASURY , DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 ii fr FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS UNITED STATES SENATE REGARDING LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION'S FOREIGN SALES ACTIVITIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON THE EMERGENCY LOAN GUARANTEE PROGRAM AUGUST 25, 1975, 10:00 A.M. Mr. Chairman, my testimony concerns the Emergency Loan Guarantee •program, and in particular the recent disclosures of secret payments made by Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, the sole borrower under the program, to officials of foreign governments. Let there be no misunderstanding: the Emergency Loan Guarantee Board does not, and will not, condone illegal or unethical activities by American business, here or abroad. The Board condemns such actions in the strongest terms and is deeply concerned about the possible improper use of Lockheed's corporate funds and its impact on the guarantee program. We are disturbed that Lockheed's apparent long-standing practice of resorting to bribery to sell its products in foreign markets has escaped detection by the Board, and others monitoring the company's activities. We are distressed that Lockheed's management has apparently not been forthright with the Board and with Congress. As a Government official who has spoken out about the importance of maintaining the free enterprise system, I find Lockheed's actions deplorable. Lockheed's executives in making WS-376 - 2 application for a Government benefit — a guarantee of some of their borrowings — have not disclosed what may prove to be material information to the Administration and the Congress. We recognize that very serious consequences are involved for Lockheed, for the aerospace industry, and for the loan guarantee program. Before providing the Committee with an overview of the problem, let me summarize briefly the steps the Board is taking: The Board has requested by letter that Lockheed: (1) confirm its oral understanding with the Board that it is to provide all material information concerning the bribes; (2) will request its auditor to furnish separately to the Board additional information regarding the transactions; and (3) furnish any additional information regarding the payments that the Board may deem necessary. The Board has notified Lockheed that the Guarantee Agreement does not provide for any waiver of the Board's rights or remedies unless expressly waived in a writing signed by the Board. In addition, the acceptance of any certificates, representations, or other documents required to be furnished by Lockheed, under the Agreement, should not be deemed to constitute a waiver of any of the Board's rights. - 3 As part of the Fiscal Agent's ongoing monitoring activities, the Board has requested that it prepare a current assessment of the Government's collateral under the Credit Agreement. The Board has asked the Fiscal Agent to carefully consider the Expenditure Plans, which Lockheed furnished to the Board in connection with each drawdown of guarantee funds, to determine whether the Expenditure Plans should be regarded as false or incomplete in that no information regarding the bribes was provided. The Board's staff has questioned past officials associated with the Guarantee program. None can recall any information coming to his attention which indicated that Lockheed was paying bribes to foreign officials. The Board has requested that Lockheed's Agent Banks review the information in their possession to advise whether it indicates that Lockheed has been paying bribes. The Board's staff is in the process of undertaking a complete review of its files, and has asked its Fiscal Agent to do the same, in order to confirm that the Board had no information about Lockheed's payments of bribes until June of this year. - 4 The Board has requested that the General Accounting Office, which is required to audit any borrowers under the Emergency Loan Guarantee program and to report its findings to the Board, search its files to determine whether or not they contain any information regarding the payment of bribes by Lockheed. — The Board's staff met with the GAO staff on August 19 for the purpose of creating a cooperative program whereby the Board may obtain whatever additional information it deems necessary to assess its position under the Guarantee Act and the Agreements. Lockheed's Disclosure Let me turn now to a discussion of how the Board learned of the Lockheed bribes. The Board did not become aware that Lockheed had paid bribes to foreign officials until early June of this year. This information was first transmitted orally to the Board's staff by Lockheed's financial officers. They advised that while proxy materials had been cleared by the Securities and Exchange Commission staff in connection with the company's scheduled annual meeting on July 18, 1975, Lockheed was unable to mail these materials to its shareholders. This was because Lockheed's independent auditor, Arthur Young and Company, would not certify Lockheed's - 5 financial statements, unless the company acknowledged that bribes had been paid to foreign officials and that the extent of such payments was defined. The Board's staff was told that the company's financial officers and its independent auditor were reviewing foreign sales practices and that the Board would be kept advised. The Board was aware that Lockheed paid sales commissions to foreign consultants. This practice was not cause for alarm in that it is a usual way of doing business. Of course, the Board recognizes the difference between legitimate and appropriate finders' fees and commissions to sales consultants and bribes paid to governmental officials, either directly or through commissioned agents. As a result of its initial inquiries, the Board's staff was left with an impression that there were isolated instances of bribes and that the amounts involved, while large, were not significant when viewed in comparison with those reported to have been made by other corporations. An allegation which has appeared in the press on June 6 by the Northrop Corporation that it had modeled a Swiss subsidiary utilized to facilitate payments to its agents after one established by Lockheed had triggered Arthur Young and Company's - 6 inquiry. Discussions between the Board's staff and Lockheed officials about these developments included the procedures Lockheed was following in its review of foreign bribes and the time period to be covered. The staff began to become concerned that the dollar amount of payments made by Lockheed was substantial and that bribery might have been in issue in more than a few isolated instances. Additionally, Lockheed advised that it had made political contributions of approximately $25,000 in one country, but that such contributions were legal under local law. On June 16, the Board's staff met with the Arthur Young and Company partner in charge of the firm's audit of Lockheed to discuss what Arthur Young was doing in connection with its review of the Lockheed bribes and the company's foreign sales activities generally. This meeting reinforced the staff's concern as to the magnitude of payments made. On June 17 the Board's staff and a representative of its Fiscal Agent, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, met with Lockheed's Senior Vice President for Finance at Lockheed's headquarters to discuss matters further with him. The Lockheed official indicated that he and Arthur Young were making a thorough review of the transactions in issue - 7 with a view towards reporting their findings to Lockheed's Board of Directors on June 23. He also stated that the Guarantee Board's staff'would be provided with all relevant information relating to payments by Lockheed to foreign officials. The staff recalls that it was at this meeting that it became aware of a letter, dated April 29, 1975, to Lockheed from the Securities and Exchange Commission staff requesting that the company respond to certain general questions regarding payments it may have made to officials of foreign governments. Initial Response by the Board Once it had learned of the SEC's inquiry, the Board's staff was kept advised by Lockheed on the status of this inquiry. The staff has also received information about an inquiry into Lockheed's activities by the Senate Subcommittee on Multinational Corporations. Further, Lockheed has furnished the Board with its submissions to the SEC describing a number of transactions known or suspected by the company to have involved payments to foreign officials. Copies of these submissions were furnished to the Chairman of this Committee by the Board on August 15, 1975. The Board's staff visited Lockheed's corporate headquarters again on July 21 and 22 to review the most current information about the bribery inquiry and to evaluate Lockheed's operating progress on its L-1011 program. - 8 Lockheed permitted the staff to review Arthur Young's report to Lockheed's Board of Directors, which described payments made to foreign officals and the establishment of a slush f fund. The report substantiated the information contained in Lockheed's submissions to the SEC. The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board staff was informed by Lockheed officials that some bribes involved efforts to market the L-1011 aircraft. At various times in mid- and late July, the Board's Executive Director, Edward C. Schmults, talked with each of the three Members of the Board to alert them of the magnitude of the problem. He also advised the Board Members that the staff was in the process of reviewing the Emergency Loan Guarantee Act and the Agreements between Lockheed and the ELGB to assess whether any violations or defaults have occurred by reason of Lockheed's foreign payments and what legal courses of action were available to the Board. As this review developed in late July and early August, it became apparent that additional information was needed in order to determine whether the Guarantee Act or the provisions of Lockheed's agreements with the ELGB had been violated. Additional issues also had to be considered. These included the purposes underlying the Emergency Loan Guarantee Act, the Board's responsibilities under the Act, general U.S. policy with regard to bribery of foreign - 9 officials by U.S. corporations, and, finally, what actions the Board ought to pursue in response to these considerations. These considerations present difficult questions for the Board to resolve. Among issues to be addressed are: 1. How can the Board distinguish between proper commissions to sales consultants and instances where consultants use a portion of their fees to bribe foreign governmental officials? 2. With the purpose of the Guarantee program being the preservation of Lockheed's viability, should the Board take action which (a) might put the company at a competitive disadvantage with respect to both other U.S. corporations and foreign competitors, or (b) might cause Lockheed to fail, especially where rules have yet to be prescribed? 3. Would Board action have broad application affecting the ability of U.S. corporations to compete in certain parts of the world, given local business practices and customs? In fact, the Board met earlier today in order to continue its attempts to resolve these difficult questions. Parenthetically, the Board reviewed a routine rollover of $30 million of guaranteed notes due today. - 10 The Board's Monitoring Functions I think it would be useful at this point to explain the procedure which the Board has followed to keep apprised of developments regarding Lockheed. In passing on the Emergency Loan Guarantee program, Congress had, as one of its primary purposes, a desire to avoid creating another bureaucracy. For this reason, among others, Congress directed the General Accounting Office to audit any borrower under the program and to report the results of its audits to the Board and to the Congress. In this connection, I want to acknowledge the controversy that took place in 1972 with regard to the GAO's role. Treasury General Counsel Pierce contended that the GAO ;Of did not have the statutory authority to review Board internal :o* records relating to its own decision making. In any event, and in response to the position taken by Senator Proxmire and then Chairman Sparkman of this Committee, the Board has 9: provided the GAO with every record in its files that has been •fi- requested. I want to point out that there was no question ever raised that the GAO could not inquire fully into Lockheed's own affairs. In fact, the Board demanded a provision in the Guarantee Agreement whereby Lockheed is required to provide the GAO full access to its records. The Board is supported by a very small staff and by its Fiscal Agent, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which 97 - 11 utilized officers and employees of its Credit and Discount Department. The largest the Board's staff has been was three full-time employees in.the spring of 1973. The staff's efforts are supplemented on a when-neede.d basis by personnel from the Board Members' respective agencies. At the present time, the staff is comprised of an Executive Director, Edward C. Schmults, who also is the Under Secretary of the Treasury, and a full-time Secretary, Alan Vinick. A tech- nical consultant and an attorney, assigned from Treasury, also work for the Board on a part-time basis. The Board's staff and the Fiscal Agent have continuously A,"' monitored Lockheed's operations, particularly since the If company experienced results in early 1972 which fell far short of expectations. Monitoring activities have included review of various Lockheed financial and production data, and regular meetings with Lockheed officials, with Lockheed's independent auditor (Arthur Young and Company), with customer airlines, and with lending banks. The Board's staff has made frequent trips to Lockheed's facilities to review various programs in order to better assess the financial statements provided by the company. In the last two and a half years, the staff has spent approximately 158 days reviewing Lockheed's operations at the company's facilities. This figure excludes numerous visits by the Fiscal Agent's representatives to Lockheed's facilities. - 12 Others have also been actively involved in reviewing Lockheed's circumstances. The Agent Banks advised us that, based on a preliminary review of the information in their files, their monitoring activities found no indication of any bribes. Further, Arthur Young and Company, Lockheed's independent auditor, which employs in excess of 200 people, or 25,000 hours, to perform Lockheed's yearly audit, has orally advised us that until early June 1975 they too were unaware of the fact that Lockheed had paid bribes. The point that I want to make is that if a system of making payoffs is well contrived, monitoring a multi-billion-dollar corporation's activities in a diligent fashion will usually not uncover such practices. Additionally, the Board has never sought in its monitoring of Lockheed the task of verifying all of the company's cash receipts and expenditures, but rather has relied upon such information being furnished to it in the form of consolidated financial statements or program financial statements by the company's financial officers, its independent public auditors, and the General Accounting Office. The Board's role in monitoring Lockheed has been through a credit analysis approach which relies upon internal and independent auditors, the normal practice employed by commercial lenders. /** - 13 Extension of the Guarantee As you are aware, the Guarantee Board recently approved a proposed refinancing plan for Lockheed which extended the Government's guarantee for two years through December 31, 1977. I think it should be made clear that when the Board met on May 17, 1975, to reach this decision, it had no knowledge of Lockheed's payments to foreign officials. At its May meeting the Board reviewed Lockheed's draft financial statements for the year ended December 29, 1974. The Board's staff was advised by Lockheed that these statements were in the form as to which Arthur Young and Company was prepared to issue its audit certification subject only to completion of Lockheed's pending refinancing plan. In fact, at the time the formal agreements were executed, on May 20, the Board was furnished with certified financial statements signed by Arthur Young and Company, which, except for minor modifications, were identical to those supplied to the Board for its May 17 meeting. The Board's staff and Fiscal Agent also reviewed the five-year financial forecast completed by Lockheed in April of this year. This financial forecast completed by Lockheed in April of this year. This financial forecast was discussed thoroughly at the Board's meeting. No reference was made in the forecast about the payment of the bribes by Lockheed to procure foreign business. - 14 In addition, Lockheed's Chairman and its Senior Vice President for Finance appeared before the Board on May 17, 1975, to discuss the risks associated with the company's business and to review the refinancing plan. Again, no mention was made of the company's payments to foreign officials. I emphasize that this was at the time that Lockheed had in its possession a letter from the SEC's staff' asking for information about bribes paid by the company. It was also during this time that Senator Church's Subcommittee on Multinational Corporations was holding hearings on foreign bribes paid by U.S. corporations. * Because of allegations that had appeared in the press about other corporations, the Board's staff, in the process of briefing itself and the Board, asked Lockheed whether it had "laundered" funds through overseas subsidiaries for the purpose of making political contributions in this country. Lockheed's response to this question was that no such activity had occurred. In retrospect, it would have been advantageous to inquire as to whether Lockheed had made any payments to foreign officials. however, considered at the time. That question was not, f° - 15 Concluding Remarks From Lockheed's public statements, as well as from information which we received from Lockheed, it is clear that bribes had been paid prior to the Guarantee program. I want the record to reflect that all of the Members of the Guarantee Board are not only deeply concerned by Lockheed's failure to have advised us of these practices, but are distressed that the Government has been involved, even indirectly, in the L-1011 program if, as intimated by Lockheed, that program is partially dependent upon bribes for its success. Whether laws of the United States have been violated is to be determined following the reviews underway by the various Congressional committees and the agencies investigating these questions. A broader policy, however, is at stake here. The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board has been put in the position of seeking to protect the Government's interest as guarantor for creditors of Lockheed. In so doing, it finds itself working with a company that alleges that foreign payments of this nature are a normal and necessary method of doing business abroad in the highly competitive aerospace market. While the Board does not believe it is the approp- riate agency to develop rules or standards of general applicability, it is formulating its own assessment of what has transpired in order to determine an appropriate course of action under the Guarantee Act. This assessment will - 16 include a balance of competing interests between the public's right to know and the alleged potential adverse impact of detailed disclosure on Lockheed's outstanding orders. Congre likewise, has a responsibility to determine what actions it should take in connection with the Government guarantee of loans to Lockheed. When the Board has completed its review it will then be in a position to recommend whether a change in the Guarantee legislation is desirable. Mr. Chairman, let me repeat what the Board is doing. In accordance with our responsibilities under the Act, we have sought all pertinent information from Lockheed, and others, so that we can address the underlying issues thoroughly and intelligently. We are hesitant to prejudice our position by presupposing what our response will be until we are sure of the facts, are informed of the conclusions of the SEC investigation, and have evaluated our own responsibilities under the Act. At that time, the Board will take whatever actions it concludes are warranted in response to Lockheed's misconduct. Mr. Chariman, a crucial challenge facing us today is the preservation of the free enterprise system. Practices such as bribes made to secure foreign business can only increase the distrust and suspicion that is straining our national institutions. To argue that bribes to foreign - 17 officials are necessary for effective competition is contrary to every principle under the free market system. The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board wants to go on record as condemning these practices. /if FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 25, 1975 CONTACT: Alan Vinick 964-5512 EMERGENCY LOAN GUARANTEE BOARD MEETS TO CONSIDER IMPLICATIONS OF LOCKHEED'S IMPROPER PAYMENTS TO FOREIGN OFFICIALS AND POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board met today for the purpose of considering what actions it should take in response to the recent disclosures by Lockheed that the company had made certain improper payments to foreign governmental officials and political organizations. Lockheed's Chairman, Daniel J. Haughton, and other company officials, met with the Guarantee Board and advised that a policy which would prohibit the company from making improper payments to foreign officials or political organizations, directly or indirectly, will be considered at a meeting of Lockheed's Board of Directors in early September. For the present, Mr. Haughton stated that Lockheed management has suspended all payments to consultants. Meeting alone later, the Guarantee Board decided that unless directed by Congress to the contrary it will require that Lockheed not make any future improper payments, directly or indirectly, to foreign governmental officials or political organizations, including any such payments presently committed. Specific measures directed to this essential objective are in the process of being worked out. 5s ie Deporfmem o/f/ief/JfylSt/fJK ;HINGT0N, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 M7 August 25, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF TPvEASURYTS WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $3.1 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $3.2 billion if 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on August 28, 1975 rere opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: 13-week bills ANGE OF ACCEPTED OMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing November 28, 1975 Price High Low Average Discount Rate 98.335 a/ 6.515% 98.307 6.625% 98.315 6.593% 26-week bills maturing February 26, 1976 Investment Rate 1/ Investment Rate 1/ Price Discount Rate 6.74% 6.85% 6.82% 96.436 96.413 96.418 7.050% 7.43% 7.095% 7.48% 7.085% 7.47% / Excepting 2 tenders totaling $5,220,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 73% Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 93%, TAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 44,885,000 Boston *$ New York 3 ,508,095,000 60,335,000 Philadelphia 72,210,000 Cleveland 62,425,000 Richmond 51,650,000 \tlanta 293,430,000 Chicago 55,700,000 >t. Louis 22,695,000 linneapolis 47,595,000 Kansas City 40,495,000 Jallas an Francisco— 185,980,000 TOTALS^ 4 ' 4 4 5 ' 4 9 5 ' 0 0 0 Accepted $ 42,885,000 2,425,215,000 58,335,000 67,210,000 51,575,000 47,335,000 164,380,000 44,200,000 9,695,000 45,595,000 35,495,000 108,980,000 Received Accepted $ 50,775,000 4,979,035,000 41,320,000 272,230,000 72,690,000 51,000,000 367,265,000 49,480,000 27,835,000 39,300,000 43,195,000 250,415,000 $ 18,775,000 2,802,605,000 16,320,000 143,015,000 30,190,000 30,170,000 45,510,000 22,430,000 4,835,000 31,335,000 18,195,000 37,105,000 $3,100,900,000 b/ $6,244,540,000 $3,200,485,000 c/ Includes $495,975,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. Includes $307,795,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. Equivalent coupon-issue yield. UKK3.0 STATES DBPASS^CTl- OF TES TKE/^SORT WASHINGTON, D*C. PRESS CONFERENCE Roora 4X21, Main Treasury Building 15th and £ennsylvaaia Ave,, N.W. Washington, D,C, Wednesday, August 27, 1975 Convened at 3s45 p.au PARTICIPANTSs Lisle Widaan, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Monetary and Investment Affairs John Bttehnell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for fev^icoing Nations **»« Finance Sam Cross*, United States Executive Director, International Monetary Tm\& Charles A. Cooper, Assistant Secretary fcr International Affairs * Bdwin B« Yeo, Under Secretary for r-so^etavy Affairs 3 l& views* We are particularly interested in discussing with our colleagues the nature of the recovery in the United States econoa&y and our views on how that recovery can best be facilitated for the good of usf Americans, and for the good of the world corsmunity* X aia open to your questions* QOESTIO&s Mr. 1Teo, there has been some suggestion that the package that was discussed in Paris, the split issue, m the government willing to split the package* MR* TEOs We are reviewing the possibility of soma unbundling for the purposes of d£scussionr wiMHiliBp* As you know from our country's standpoint a final conclusion on parts of all three issues involves legislation. So as a legislative matter it is quite unlikely that we can unbundle* But for purposes of discussion we are reviewing the possibility of unbundling* We are interested in a flexible framework for talks* We are interested in anything that tends to add rigidity to our conversationsFor that reason we are reviewing the possibility of unbundling* QUESTIONS Does that foreclose the possibility of an agreement on one or two of the issites? in the negotiations? MR. YEOs That does not foreclose it* but what it says is we are reviewing the possibility of unbundling* 4 /T* j QUESTION: Is it possible we could get an agreement j on gold questions or the various details here this coming week? MR. YEO: It is possible we can reach near agree- ment on gold or on any of the other three economic discussi jpHntee*, exchange rate* That is certainly possible. But th question remains whether or not it is possible to put together some agreements until we have a package as a whole As I said we are reviewing that aspect of it with an eye to what we can do to open up conversations and provi a flexible framework for them* QUESTION: Will this review be completed before the meetings start? MR* YEO: Yes. QUESTIONS You will go to the Saturday interim meeting knowing whether or not you will unbundle? MR. YBOs That is correct, and if so, where, QUESTION: What does that mean? MR* YEO: There are any number of ways these issues can be unbundled. We have four issues* You have better math mind than I have, but what is it ~- square root? QUESTION: What about the fifth issue of oil, and the sixth issue of developing countries? You mentioned four Issues• MR* YBO: They are certainly important issues* I was 5 { addressing *in terms of >~he four %te explicit issues that j Concern ! •&HSKA£h the interim committee- But in terms of the total j j meetings there are the probieaas of developing countries. Problems that are underlined by the experience we have had in the last 18 months in petroleum, and underlined by a second phenomenon which.is the largest^ in terms of amplitude, dnd broadest in terms of pervasiveness, inventory cycles since 1&21* It is these circumstances that make the challenges and problems of developing countries particularly irrelevant to our meetings that are coming up* I think you will see in our conversations and ideas that we have had this aspect much in mind* QUESTION: It used to be the interim committee / •T"OT IV) (inaudible). There is a possibility I gather of the )mmm of taking risks and responsibility for the system of compensating balances for the developing countries* Is this not going to be discussed with the new U.S. proposals? MR* YBOt I think it will be included in the general formal and informal discussions* The principal things within the interim committee we hope to concentrate on: (1) economic discussions* It is clear there is a felt need for economic consultations and we have a readymade vehicle, a group, a continuing group in which these consultations can take place. 6 irr j QUESTION: What do you expect those economic consultations to lead to? It is a little vague the way you have put it* MR. YEO: I think a principal achievement, certainly an objective would be more comprehensive understanding on all of our parts, ours included, of the factors that are affecting the world economy and its major constituent parts* This is not just a matter of talking economics. We are in an unusual period, an unprecedented period* And a shared perception of our problems, of our challenges and problems ^is a prerequisite for effective individual action. For example, why can we observe in many developed economies a shift in liquidity preference on the part of individuals? Why are we experiencing such high savings rates? This is no small question* It is a difference between recovery and no recovery in several key economies. Is it a structural change or is it a temporary change? That in turn is no small question. Because if it is a temporary change when will the shift in liquidity preference go the other way. Or in other words, when will we have a consumer boom* Because that is what it entails* Will it be. under Murphy's law, at the wors£ possible time? This is something we need a shared understanding about* vmwtm "Ihe potential power of shifts in W H t t s rates far exceeds ism impact on aggregate demand £ 7 /r2 1 ^-— Mr changes in fiscal policies which are discussed J } day by clay by day continuously* It is a very powerful factor. 1 QUESTION: Is this proposal meant to be an alter- 4S ; fa I native suggestion by the President «fc.the summit conference on J * I economic issues? MR* YEO: No* It is not meant to be an alternative \ i i to anything. It comes from the very specific types of con! cerns that I mentioned In a sense that at this time these are j approprxate — urgent — items ^§ discussion within the context of the appropriate group. QUESTION: Would you go on and finish the list you j started awhile ago one should concentrate on, first economic j consultations? what is second, third and fourth? I MR* YEO: Economic consultations, this was within j the interim committee. Economic consultations, th& exchange I rate question, the gold question, the quota question, all are I i np for discussion within the broader context of this community j i of meetings. j r ( The problems of LDCs X think you will find will j receive a very high priority. QUESTION: Do you expect compromise will be struck j on the exchange rate question between d'Hstaing and the U.S.? ; MR* YEO: We are negotiating and that process I implies some ultimate accommodation* I think there will be j an ultimate accommodation. 8 M | } QUESTION: Can you be specific at all? J MR. YEO: No, ma'am. QUESTION: Will the G-5 meet, and if so, when and where? MR. YEOs One of the characteristics of the meetings we are going into, and one of the values is that there are a number of bilateral meetings, multilateral meetings, and opportunity for discussion, and I assume that which has characterised past meetings will characterize this one* QUESTION: Where will the meetings be held? Will it be a dinner? Will it be a Camp David thing, or what? MR* YEO: There will be a number of meetings on an informal and ad hoc basis. As you well know they will be held in corridors, at dinner parties, and elsewhere. QUESTION: Will you say something about the spirit with which you will approach this exchange rate system? Is it along the way you recently outlined, or the way the Secretary said about floating -- Is there any change or any possibility for an approach to the French relaxation of their stand on that? MR. YEO: It is our feeling that what we ought to have is a voluntary system. That those who wish to float can float, and those who wish to peg their currencies in terms of a fixed relationship can operate with a fixed exchange rate system. I We also mmmmmm believe that onex ought not to appear j to be second-class or transitory. It is our interpretation, j and I think it is becoming shared by many people? that the j exchange rate system that we have, the voluntary system, and l particularly the floating aspect of it,has served the world well. | It is our view that stability is a result,— \ particularly financial stability^!© a result of the economic \ j equilibrium* That you cannot impose financial stability In an economy character!zed by economic disequilibrium. \ ' It is our view that the world is wary of broken promises* of promises of superimposed stability that lasts for j a month, a year and then you blink your eyes and they are gone*] \ You have devaluations. We don't think it is politically j i desirable to establish a system that sets the stage for j additional broken promises • *M» we can make a contribution > in the direction of economic — of political stability by j operating within the context of a system that is elastic enough to function in the kinds of conditions that have characterised the last three years* Moreover we think, those of us, and particularly I think the President, the Secretary, those of us who set a high ; priority on price stabilization,which I think is really a j euphemism for economic equilibrium^feel that concentration on ; V a mechanical, although important, aspect distracts attention } 10 )?? | from the mainfevent which is the development of domestic policies that will lay down the concrete, provide the basis for price stabilization and economic equilibrium. And in turn provide the basis for sustainable economic recovery. QUESTION: I am curious as to why you feel these meetings of the interim committee would be inappropriate for discussion of matters such as the level of savings rates in various countries given the complexity of the other issues before the committee and the regular OECD meetings to normally • economic questions of that sort. Could you explain, perhaps, in more detail why you think this is an appropriate topic? I am not questioning its importance* MR* YEO: Given its importance^"we have established its importanceXand given the importance of the participants in the Interim meeting why is this not a good forum, a good context within which to discuss these questions? It seems to me it is very appropriate and will not preclude the necessary energy and focus on other issues. QUESTION: I am curious as to what the interim committee might conclude might be relevant to questions of savings rate. What might come out of that committee given its various mandates? Obviously we are all concerned about the state of the world economy, and the state of that economy is relevant 11 /id I j to these other issues. But are you suggesting what this j interim committee has to do in order to solve questions of the I i J exchange rates, role of gold, and so on? They must first find. ! a way to get the economic —• i • j MR. YEO: I am not suggesting one as a prerequisite ! to the oth&Tt but I am also not suggesting they are not in r 1 some &ense interrelated. Economic discussions are certainly ! not a prerequisite in terms of other areas. The re&soas for 1 discussions of this mature at the interim committee level are \ cTo W ^ ! (a) it is very important, (b) it isAappropriate fin terms of j its composition* an appropriate group. • If you attach the priority we do to these dis~ j i cussions? we think it is a meaningful addition to the agenda* [ In terms of what will be accomplished, will there be an agree- \ ment on savings rates? No, there will not be. \ Will there be a better understanding as a result? i j I am sure* Will there be a shared perception? It is probable,; j That in my mind represents the opportunity at this time for ] a significant advance. 1 i QUESTIONt A two-part question. In addition to savings rates what might be some other issues to come up? And secondly, have you sounded out other members of the committee? Do they agree it is an appropriate forum for \ discussion? J MR* YEO: I think there is general agreement it is I I 12 /(>l an appropriate issue. QUESTION: How is it appropriate? Is it because of participation of LDC« in it? MR* YEOs It is appropx*iate because of its significance* It is appropriate because of its importance at this time* QUESTION: There was another part to this question* What might be other subjects that would come up in the economic discussion? MR. YEO: I gave savings rates, not as a subject but as an example in an attempt to respond to the n^ed to be specific. The subject is going to be the various state&of various principal economies in the world* This is what we are all concerned and interested in. What is going on in the United States? What is going on in Germany, France, and a number of other significant to all of those economices. And that this is an unusual time is symbolized only by the savings rate mechanism* This is not a conference to discuss savings rates. QUESTION: In discussing the state of the economy and various economies what do you hope to be able —• do you hope to be able to prove something relative to these Issues such as exchange rates? Do you have to be able to solve some of these problems such as exchange rates? MR. YEO: Not in the direct sense. As I said this 13 /Ms is not a prerequisite. It contributes to better understanding vvhich in term facilitates negotiations in other areas. Are *?e looking at issues through the same lens? Through the saise outlook in terras of economic prospects, economic problems? A shared perception of where the world's economy is now facilitates understanding and therefore agreement. QUESTION: Mr. Yeo, you spend a good deal of your time talking about the state of the various economies of the world* Will you not reduce th.^ chances you will have time to solve some of the Issues on the specific issues? MR. YBOs No, I do not think so. As a matter of fact I think it could go quite the other way. Economic Or} unanimity is not prerequisite for agreem»nt«*Ma# the other principal item)'? of business on the agenda* 1 On the other hand it can facilitate agreement. For example, do we perceive as a group continued stagnation? 1 don't personally. This has an i&paat on soiae of the other areas under consideration. There is a need for a ssore cosiplete understanding, a dialogue of shared perception, and we think it is quite important. QUESTIONS I am thinking in the practical terms of the time available for the ministers to get together and discuss things, and X can easily envision you spending all of i « /&3 the tiiae discussing these very broad, diffuse complex questions of the world economy and never coming to grips with such things as exchange rates and gold. MR* YEO: QUESTION: The intention is the opposite* Suppose you coiss to agreement that there is a general level of stagnation. Could you envision the interim committee making any recommendations to deal with them? MR. YEO: I am not sure the interim committee would make any recosmaendations that would take the form of an announcement. But I am reasonably sure if that were the perception that it would have an impact on various country policies. I will take one more question* QUESTION: You always have discussions at these meetings on the general state of world economies. The communiques are always full of Information about world economies* I fail to see what is new about your proposal except right at the beginning of this press conference you mentioned there might not be announcements. And the sug- gestion one comes away with you will come out with a long communique again about the state of the world economy and no detailed statement on anything. Is this a false conception? MR* YEO? I think so. That is not the intention is /0</ at all. The intention is not to load the discussions with \*ery general economic review type conversation. The intention is to move forward, our hope is to move forward on the four Issues. And in particular the three issues that have been before the committee for sozm months* By the same token it seems to me we could all agree it is appropriate to Include in our discussions, perhaps, in greater depth than in the past and with more structure than in the past, a dialogue, conversations on principal developments in key world economies* It seems to me that we would almost be remiss if that were not on the agenda. And I don't mean to suggest that we are taking international the idea of crowding out* Thank you very much. (Conference concluded at 4:21 p.m.) Contact: Joyce Barbee 964-5844 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 27, 1975 TREASURY RELEASES FINAL BUDGET RESULTS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1975 Attached is the Final Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 1975. The final budget deficit is $43,604 million as compared to the preliminary published deficit of $44,212 million, a decrease of $608 million. The change is attributable to a net increase in receipts of $76 million and a net decrease in outlays of $532 million. Each year there are differences between the preliminary and final; however, this year's difference is higher than normal due to an adjustment of $427 million relating to food stamp program outlays. The remaining changes result from giving effect to final transactions (including many overseas transactions) of Government disbursing, collecting and adminis- trative agencies, which could not be reported in the preliminary statement. tfS-377 ^O^'O^ Final1 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for period from July 1,1974 through June 30,1975 /fo (? TABLE I--TOTALS OF BUDGET RESULTS AND FINANCING (IN MILLIONS) Budget Receipts and Outlays Fiscal Year Receipts Actual 1975 (twelve months) Z!omparative data: Actual 1974 (full year) Estimated 1975 2 2 Estimated 1976 Outlays M e a n s of Financing Budget Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) By Borrowing from the Public By Reduction of Cash and Monetary Assets Increase (-) J* Other Means Total Budget Financing $280,997 $324,601 -$43,604 $50,853 -$320 -$6,929 $43,604 264,932 280,963 299,000 268,392 323,612 358,900 -3,460 -42,649 -59,900 3,009 50,800 73,900 2,519 2,700 -2,068 -10,851 -14,000 3,460 42,649 59,900 TABLE II--SUMMARY OF BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS (In thousands) Classification Actual This Fiscal Year to Date Budget Estimates Full Fiscal Y e a r 2 RECEIPTS ndividual income taxes lorporation income taxes ocial insurance taxes and contributions: Employment taxes and contributions Unemployment insurance Contributions for other insurance and retirement ixcise taxes Istate and gift taxes ustoms Hscellaneous Total OUTLAYS egislative Branch he Judiciary xecutive Office of the President unds Appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Other spartment of Agriculture apartment of C o m m e r c e apartment of Defense - Military apartment of Defense - Civil apartment of Health, Education, and Welfare apartment of Housing and Urban Development ipartment of the Interior spartment of Justice spartment of Labor spartment of State ipartment of Transportation spartment of the Treasury: Interest on the public debt General Revenue Sharing Other. «rgy Research and Development Administration ivironmental Protection Agency neral Services Administration tional Aeronautics and Space Administration terans Administration tependent agencies Lowances, undistributed distributed offsetting receipts: Federal employer contributions to retirement funds •merest on certain Government accounts , footnotes on page 3. tents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf lands ., Total rce: Bureau of Government Financial Operations. Department of the Treasury Plus (+) or deficit (-) $122,385,980 40,621,179 75,204,416 6,770,706 4,465,868 16,550,686 4,611,125 3,675,532 6,711,349 280,996,840 $121,648,000 41,000,000 75,147,000 6,887,000 4,474,000 16,536,000 4,440,000 3,770,000 7,061,000 280,963,000 726,049 283,754 92,826 994,262 1,556,625 1,020,996 9,724,876 1,582,926 85,420,124 2,051,164 112,410,756 7,488,207 2,161,594 2,066,906 17,648,568 844,292 9,246,562 32,665,008 6,137,917 2,374,224 3,198,199 2,530,463 -624,054 3,266,708 16,575,008 -3,980,206 17,255,173 -7,690,002 -2,427,965 742,896 308,127 108,674 1,266,600 1,624,149 1,022,947 10,333,818 1,630,997 85,885,000 2,167,331 112,188,536 5,707,227 2,190,627 2,061,192 17,444,299 965,363 9,328,514 32,800,000 6,129,000 2,290,629 3,128,267 2,936,736 -766,166 3,267,200 16,726,121 -3,998,105 16,181,881 -7,759,517 -2,300,000 324,600,960 323,612,343 -43,604,120 -42,649,343 TABLE HI-BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS (In thousands) Current Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification of Receipts Gross Receipts Refunds (Deduct) Net Receipts Gross Receipts Refunds (Deduct) Net Receipts to i '$10,026,793 314 '4,540,362 Total--Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions: E m p l o y m e n t taxes and contributions: Federal old-age and survivors ins. trust fund: Federal Insurance Contributions Act taxes Self-Employment Contributions Act taxes Total--FOASI trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund: Federal Insurance Contributions Act taxes Self-Employment Contributions Act taxes... Deposits by States Total--FDI trust fund ,. Federal hospital insurance trust fund: Federal Insurance Contributions Act taxes. . .. Self-Employment Contributions Act taxes. Receipts from railroad retirement account P r e m i u m s collected for uninsured individuals Net Receipts Refunds (Deduct) Gross Receipts 1 Individual income taxes: Withheld Presidential Election Campaign Fund ........!'.' Other !.'!.*.'! 9 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Y e a r •:: - $112,064,207 27,592 30,811,851 $122,071,480 31,657 34,296,301 ^ m - * $122,385,980 142,903,650 $23,952,018 $118,951,631 5,125,481 40,621,179 41,744,444 3,124,789 38,619,654 46,904,675 2,674,426 5,897,892 269,650 46,635,025 2,674,426 5,897,892 40,835,583 2,345,208 4,989,458 392,557 40,443,026 2,345,208 4,989,458 3,958,376 55,476,993 269,650 55,207,343 48,170,250 392,557 47,777,693 '527,343 '37,320 152,334 527,343 37,320 152,334 6,158,949 350,742 775,875 35,350 6,123,599 350,742 775,875 5,259,583 305,414 632,646 50,217 5,209,366 305,414 632,646 716,997 716,997 7,285,567 35,350 7,250,217 6,197,642 50,217 6,147,425 '826,582 '46,025 826,582 46,025 55,000 238,401 673 9,519,540 391,251 126,749 1,214,297 5,685 9,090,690 357,588 96,163 1,099,424 4,281 92,432 238,401 673 8,998,258 357 588 96 163 1,099,424 4.281 1,111,680 1,111,680 9,574,540 391,251 126,749 1,214,297 5,685 11,312,522 55,000 11,257,522 10,648,146 92,432 10,555,714 1,489,333 1,411,830 497 1,411,333 156,399,438 $34,013,458 14,567,469 $1,444,362 $13,123,107 10,241,243 663,693 9,577,550 45,746,660 '4,016,054 3 289,826 4 -347,504 4,016,054 289,826 -347,504 3,958,376 Railroad retirement accounts: T o t a l — E m p l o y m e n t taxes and contributions Unemployment insurance: U n e m p l o y m e n t trust fund: State taxes deposited in Treasury Federal Unemployment T a x Act taxes Railroad Unemployment Ins. Act contributions .... Contributions for other insurance and retirement: Federal supplementary medical ins. trust fund: P r e m i u m s collected for the aged Total--FSMI trust fund Federal employees retirement contributions: Foreign service retirement and disability fund.... T o t a l — F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s retirement contributions - - - - . . . - - . - . . . . . . . . _ _ . . . . 1 1 139,450 28 139,421 1,489,548 214 5,926,502 28 5,926,474 75,564,630 360,214 75,204,416 66,427,868 535,703 65,892,164 62,125 10,761 23,466 4,229 62,125 6,532 23,466 5,299,041 1,388,082 116,719 33,137 5,299,041 1,354,945 116,719 5,263,812 1,480,574 118,362 26,202 5,263,812 1,454,371 118,362 96,352 4,229 92,123 6,803,843 33,137 6,770,706 6,862,748 26,202 6,836,546 155,695 12,038 155,695 12,038 1,750,060 150,827 1,750,060 150,827 1,578,919 125,452 1,578,919 125,452 167,733 167,733 1,900,887 1,900,887 1,704,371 1,704,371 233,827 1,210 3,634 233,827 1,210 3,634 2,495,159 12,952 4,437 2,495,159 12,952 4,437 2,290,206 9,579 2,261 2,290,206 9,579 2,261 238,671 238,671 2,512,548 2,512,548 | 2,302,047/ j 2,302,047 Gross Receipts Refunds (Deduct) Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification of RECEIPTS—Continued Net Receipts Gross Receipts Refunds (Deduct) Net Receipts Gross Receipts Refunds (Deduct) Net Receipts Social insurance taxes and contributions—Continued Contributions for other insurance and retirement— Continued Other retirement contributions: Civil service retirement and disability fund Total—Contributions for other insurance and retirement $6,113 $6,113 $52,434 $52,434 $44,925 v44) «N9V 412,517 412,517 4,465,868 4,465,868 4,051,343 4,051,343 Total—Social insurance taxes and contributions.... 6,435,371 $4,257 6,431,114 86,834,341 $393,351 86,440,989 77,341,958 $561,906 76,780,053 894,686 85,610 519,200 23,526 75 12,000 871,160 85,535 507,200 9,550,060 963,729 6,334,253 149,907 1,369 146,080 9,400,153 962,360 6,188,173 9,883,874 842,273 6,383,707 140,624 2,163 123,399 9,743,249 840,110 6,260,309 1,499,496 35,601 1,463,895 16,848,041 297,356 16,550,686 17,109,853 266,185 16,843,668 Estate and gift taxes 425,177 13,412 411,765 4,688,079 76,954 4,611,125 5,100,675 66,034 5,034,641 Customs duties. 311,468 10,073 301,395 3,781,601 106,069 3,675,532 3,444,059 109,920 3,334,139 483,769 5,776,550 5,776,550 4,845,423 Excise taxes: Miscellaneous excise taxes Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust fund Total—Excise taxes Miscellaneous receipts: Deposits of earnings by Federal Reserve Banks. Fees for licenses to import petroleum and petroleum products All other Total—Miscellaneous receipts Total—Budget receipts. 483,769 4,845,423 122,111 -97,986 57 122,111 -98,043 442,615 492,471 287 442,615 492,184 523,469 278 523,191 507,894 57 507,837 6,711,636 287 6,711,349 5,368,892 278 5,368,614 33,988,119 2,171,456 31,816,664 321,009,795 40,012,956 280,996,840 293,013,531 28,081,131 264,932,401 FOOTNOTES Note: Throughout this statement, details may not add to totals because of rounding. ^his statement contains the final figures showing budget results for fiscal 8Amounts for "Rents and Royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf Lands" year ending June 30, 1975. These figures reflect a net change of $608 million previously shown under proprietary receipts for the Interior Department are (decrease) in the deficit published in the preliminary statement. The differnow being shown as undistributed offsetting receipts to conform with the 1976 ences between results as shown in this statement and the preliminary figures Budget presentation. 9 released in July result from giving effect to final transactions (including many Pursuant to Treasury Department Order No. 229-1, as of March 17, 1974, overseas transactions) of Government disbursing, collecting, andadministraall remaining current activity for the Office of the Treasurer was transferred tive agencies, which could not be reported in the preliminary statement. to the Bureau of Government Financial Operations. 10 The principal changes in receipts are increases in individual income Represents $50 special payments m a d e pursuant to Public Law 94-12. xl taxes, $64 million, estate and gift taxes increased $22 million and miscelPursuant to Public Law 93-438, the activity for the Atomic Energy C o m laneous taxes decreased $36 million. Total receipts increased $76 million. mission other than nuclear regulatory and reactor safety research was transThis year's difference in outlays in higher than normal due to an adjustferred to the Energy Research and Development Administration. 12 ment of $427 million relating to food stamp program outlays. Total outlays Excludes $825 million of notes issued to the International Monetary Fund decreased $532 million. to conform with the Budget presentation. 2 13 Based on revised estimates of the 1975 Budget released M a y 30, 1975, The June 30, 1974, balance shown under the former General Account of in the Mid-Session review of the 1976 Budget. the U.S. Treasury is now presented in the following lines: 3 In accordance with the provisions of the Social Security Act, as amended "Individual income taxes withheld" have been increased and "Federal Insury.S. Treasury Operating Cash. $9,159,226 ance Contributions Act taxes "have been decreased in the amount of $82,021,346 Other cash monetary assets 1,034,230 to correct estimates for quarter ended September 30, 1974, and prior. "IndiMiscellaneous asset accounts 158,534 vidual income taxes other" have been decreased and "Self Employment Con' tributions Act taxes" have been increased in the amount of $158,170,243 to As of December 9, 1974, gold certificates have been issued to the correct estimates for the calendar year 1973 and prior. Federal Reserve against all of the gold owned by the United States, and any ^Includes $390,735,220 distribution to Federal Disability and Hospital disposition of gold hereafter will.be the result of announced sales. The inforInsurance Trust Funds. mation will be published monthly in the Treasury Bulletin. Gold holdings, 'Represents reclassification of amount previously reported in the Budget gold certificates and other liabilities, and gold balance are included in miscelreceipt clearing account in the amount of approximately $248 million. laneous asset accounts. 6 14 T h e activity formerly included in the Office of Economic Opportunity Non-interest bearing notes held by the I M F were redeemed1 and demand Program has been transferred to the Community Service Administration. liabilities to the Fund were increased by issuance of a letter of credit in a 7 Food stamp program outlays have been revised in this final statement to like amount. : reflect an adjustment of -$426,946,000 to the amounts reported in the pre*Less than $500.00 ' ' liminary June 1975 Statement. **Less than $500,000.00 G) TABLE HI-BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Continued (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS Applicable Receipts Outlays egislative Branch: ' Senate House of Representatives Joint items Architect of the Capitol ; Library of Congress Government Printing Office: General fund appropriations Revolving fund (net) General Accounting Office United States Tax Court Other Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions Total--Legislative Branch le Judiciary: Supreme Court of the United States Courts of Appeals, District Courts, and other judicial services Federal Judicial Center Other Proprietary receipts from the public Total—The Judiciary $8,934 30,552 1,141 4,217 9,797 13,977 3,981 13,593 828 489 $9 3,201 -4 87,505 , , tecutive Office of the President: Compensation of the President The White House Office. Office of Management and Budget, Office of Telecommunications Policy Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention. Other Total—Executive Office of the President.... 3,210 504 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays Outlays $8,934 30,543 1,141 4,217 9,797 $102,237 179,033 44,989 50,893 100,795 13,977 3,981 13,593 828 489 -3,201 -4 84,294 106,735 14,701 125,941 11,028 5,114 504 Applicable Receipts $45 15,059 -3li 741,153 15,103 Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays $102,237 178,988 44,989 50,893 100,795 $93,066 158,093 37,178 48,139 86,121 $93,066 158,093 37,178 48,139 86,121 106,735 14,701 125,941 11,028 5,114 -15,059 -311 726,049 102,015 -6,396 106,920 13,479 2,507 102,015 -6,396 106,920 13,479 2,507 -15,190 -592 625,341 $15,190 -592 640,530 15,190 6,875 6,875 5,793 5,793 25 19,403 206 963 -25 268,038 2,374 8,547 2,079 268,038 2,374 8,547 -2,079 192,898 1,863 8,475 3,841 192,898 1,863 8,475 -3,841 25 21,050 285,833 2,079 283,754 209,029 3,841 205,188 21 1,602 2,075 305 5,795 1,868 21 1,602 2,075 305 5,795 1,868 250 15,294 21,736 7,754 33,794 13,999 250 15,294 21,736 7,754 33,794 13,999 250 10,384 18,271 2,385 21,463 13,312 250 10,384 18,271 2,385 21,463 13,312 11,665 11,665 92,826 92,826 66,065 66,065 23,103 14,009 94,966 311,746 205,858 95,337 311,374 205,858 831 289,690 250,085 3,364 19,403 206 963 21,075 6 nds Appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Disaster relief Expansion of defense production Foreign assistance: International security assistance: Liquidation of foreign military sales fund ... Military assistance Foreign military credit sales Security supporting assistance Emergency security assistance for Israel... Military credit sales to Israel Advances, foreign military sales Proprietary receipts from the public: Advances, foreign military sales Other Total--International security assistance e footnotes on page 3. 23,108 14,009 94,948 3,722 52,874 27,593 101,770 182,515 -1,901 554,607 921,179 5 '-is 22,743 -61,543 555,663 246,586 395,769 930,239 -1,901 3,536,939 531,665 4,854 -19,021 52,874 27,593 101,770 182,515 -1,901 554,607 -531,665 -4,854 559,262 361,917 5,601,752 372 *94|505 22,743 -64,085 459,963 406,008 381,862 640,278 4,435 2,675,051 4,415,270 169,477 -84,285 555,663 246,586 395,769 930,239 -1,901 3,536,939 -4,415,270 -169,477 4,607,490 994,262 4,503,511 238 i59,*254 25,842 289,452 250,085 -155,890 3,167,364 109,095 -89,927 459,963 406,008 381,862 640,278 4,435 2,675,051 -3,167,364 -109,095 3,302,301 1,201,211 ^_-_-_- - v f ^ - ^ ^ - . T ^ " ^ - ^ ^ ^ ° ^ ; ; > . " - "- "- "•"-"-"- V - - ---"-"•----- OUTLAYS—Continued Funds Appropriated to the President—Continued Foreign assistance - - Continued Indochina postwar reconstruction assistance International development assistance: Multilateral assistance: International financial institutions ....... . International organizations and programs Bilateral assistance: Public enterprise funds: Development loans revolving fund Overseas Private Investment Corporation... Inter-American Foundation Other Functional development assistance program... Payment to foreign service retirement and disability fund American schools and hospitals abroad Other assistance programs Intragovernmental funds Tnis Montn Outlays Applicable Receipts *-«« 1 :-----; Net Outlays Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays $91,213 $91,213 $496,437 $496,437 $246,316 $246,316 49,306 3,382 49,306 3,382 569,239 115,460 569,239 115,460 446,312 168,357 446,312 168,357 69,667 -6,508 482 495 48,586 564,850 63,964 7,744 4,367 401,201 258,757 12,307 7,732 1,204 401,201 568,428 19,362 6,294 3,580 161,503 16,090 20,547 261,140 5,710 112,761 16,090 20,547 261,140 5,710 -112,761 22,039 331,391 -1,258 98,325 16,090 5,168 30,798 1,092 -98,325 226,528 158,983 67,545 1,345,614 473,688 871,926 Total—International development assistance... 279,216 158,983 120,233 2,030,312 473,688 President's foreign assistance contingency fund ... -2,140 -2,140 4,316 571,223 8,132,818 Total—Foreign assistance. Other Total—Funds Appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture: Departmental management Science and education programs: Agricultural Research Service Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Cooperative State Research Service National Agricultural Library Total--Science and education programs 122,346 1,327 482 639 48,586 $52,679 7,835 145 16,090 5,168 30,798 1,092 1,289,469 718,245 -1,081 1,420,452 718,232 $306,093 51,657 12 3,164 $220,060 39,962 10 3,073 348,368 -20,600 6,283 507 161,503 62,888 22,039 331,391 -1,258 -62,888 1,111,339 325,993 785,347 1,556,625 1,726,007 325,993 1,400,015 4,316 25,224 5,081,177 3,051,641 6,501,059 5,176,055 -1,081 2,180 2,180 72,766 702,220 8,747,938 3,571,883 7,116,964 25,224 3,628,293 2,872,766 72,766 3,787,785 3,329,180 1,327 1,327 45,525 45,525 43,887 43,887 21,350 27,478 11,221 31,487 616 21,350 27,478 11,221 31,487 616 232,841 345,276 95,833 219,202 4,872 232,841 345,276 95,833 219,202 4,872 210,866 315,644 85,374 193,339 4,527 210,866 315,644 85,374 193,339 4,527 92,153 92,153 898,023 898,023 809,750 809,750 2,443 3,382 626 2,443 3,382 626 27,947 25,701 10,037 27,947 25,701 10,037 23,800 18,840 8,947 23,800 18,840 8,947 3,890 166,053 3,890 166,053 32,933 778,473 32,933 778,473 28,157 553,638 28,157 553,638 28,237 2,193 27,242 -37 532 244 39 28,237 2,193 27,242 -37 532 244 39 158,069 77,084 244,786 41,223 8,153 244 4,460 158,069 77,084 244,786 41,223 8^153 244 4,460 150,622 82,744 1,551 47,143 18,195 150,622 82,744 1,551 47,143 18,195 5,178 5,178 58,450 58,450 534,019 534,019 305,433 305,433 Agricultural economics: International programs: Foreign Agricultural Service Foreign assistance and special export programs ... Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service: Sugar act program , Agriculture conservation program ( R E A P ) Cropland adjustment program Emergency conservation measures Forestry incentives programs Other Total--Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service 01 0) TABLE MI-BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Continued (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS--Continued Outlays jfepartment of Agriculture--Continued Corporations: Federal Crop Insurance Corporation: Federal Crop Insurance Corporation fund..., Administrative and operating expenses , Commodity Credit Corporation: Price Support and related programs Special activities: Intragovernmental funds , National Wool Act program , Total--Commodity Credit Corporation.... Total--Corporations Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Net Outlays $45,680 $18,331 11,939 $30,511 11,456 $44,045 -$13,533 11,456 339,741 424,952 -85,211 3,211,577 2,487,189 724,388 5,378,355 4,374,288 1,004,067 8,381 2,385 16,974 -8,593 2,385 39,488 18,887 42,009 -2,521 18,887 179,442 7,735 29 179,413 7,735 350,507 441,926 -91,419 3,269,952 2,529,198 740,754 5,565,532 4,374,316 1,191,216 353,097 442,663 -89,566 3,345,903 2,574,878 771,024 5,607,500 4,418,361 1,189,138 78 2,199 825 18,891 825 18,891 1,905 17,388 3,856,371 2,517,933 598,025 365 35,118 134,298 10,400 7,152,511 4,754,750 2,650,701 766,468 64 1,716,770 458,308 2,859 33,990 117,246 6,185 8,171,983 -898,378 -132,768 -168,443 301 35,118 134,298 10,400 -1,019,472 8,171,983 188,833 Total--Rural development 468,047 188,833 279,214 7,172,227 12,481 10,211 6,990 oBee le»o+"otes on page 3. Applicable Receipts $64,011 11,939 465,771 Total—Consumer Programs Outlays $3,030 -1,176 78 2,199 222,310 192,470 38,104 4,477 7,386 1,023 . Net Outlays $736 105,377 129,911 28,779 -16 4,477 7,386 1,023 276,938 Food and Nutrition Service: Child nutrition programs Special milk program • Food stamp program vi Total--Food and Nutrition Service Applicable Receipts $3,766 -1,176 Rural development: Rural Development Service Rural Electrification Administration Farmers H o m e Administration: Public enterprise funds: Rural housing insurance fund Agricultural credit insurance fund Rural development insurance fund Other Rural water and waste disposal grants Salaries and expenses Other Total--Farmers Home Administration Soil Conservation Service: Conservation operations Watershed and flood prevention operations Other Consumer programs: Agricultural Marketing Service: Marketing Services ^ Funds for strengthening markets, income and supply Milk market orders assessment fund Other Total--Agricultural Marketing Service Current Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date 116,933 62,559 9,325 16 12,481 10,211 6,990 1,905 17,388 1,655,906 1,623,198 309,661 7,547 1,290,034 93,572 148,647 -4,688 33,990 117,246 6,185 5,281,296 3,596,311 1,684,985 -999,756 5,300,589 3,596,311 1,704,277 187,197 144,142 63,410 187,197 144,142 63,410 165,135 131,576 56,553 165,135 131,576 56,553 3,519 3,519 40,171 40,171 33,318 33,318 27,734 3,676 3,605 1,833 27,734 1,843 3,605 469,014 22,309 43,644 24,008 469,014 -1,699 43,644 786,846 19,885 49,327 18,758 786,846 1,128 49,327 38,533 1,833 36,700 575,138 24,008 551,130 889,377 18,758 870,619 199,615 20,150 424,178 643,943 1,452,267 122,858 4,598,956 6,174,080 1,452,267 122,858 4,598,956 6,174,080 751,325 50,236 2,844,815 3,646,377 680,643 6,749,219 6,725,210 4,535,753 199,615 , 20,150 7 424,178 643,943 682,476 1,833 24,008 751,325 50,236 2,844,815 3,64M*r 18,758 4,516,996 ^omparaDie Period Prior Fiscal xear lU LIHIC U i d S B U l C i t U U n OI OUTLAYS—Continued Outlays department of Agriculture—Continued Forest Service: Intragovernmental funds Forest protection and utilization. Construction and land acquisition Forest roads and trails Forest Service permanent appropriations Cooperative work Other Total—Forest Service Total—Department of Agriculture 1,901,912 Promotion of Industry and Commerce: Domestic and International Business Administration, Minority Business Enterprise United States Travel Service Total—Promotion of Industry and Commerce 3cience and Technology: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration... National Fire Prevention and Control Administration Patent and Trademark Office Science and Technical Research Total—Science and Technology Maritime Administration: Public enterprise funds Ship construction Operating-differential subsidies Other Total--Maritime Administration , /oprietary receipts from the public , [ntrabudgetary transactions Total—Department of Commerce , , , , , , Outlays Applicable Receipts -107,113 740,442 1,161,470 21,008,488 -425 -957 13,738 76,819 Net Outlays -$5,492 526,832 87,515 114,545 194,659 60,234 15,441 993,733 -$5,492 526,832 87,515 114,545 194,659 60,234 15,441 993,733 $107,113 -425 -957 , Net Outlays -$16,655 76,106 2,655 16,161 1,742 -42,733 3,008 40,285 -$16,655 76,106 2,655 16,161 1,742 -42,733 3,008 40,285 Proprietary receipts from the public spartment of Commerce: General Administration. Social and Economic Statistics Administration Economic Development Assistance: Economic Development Administration: Economic development revolving fund Economic development assistance programs Other Regional Action Planning Commissions Total--Economic Development Assistance , Applicable Receipts Outlays Applicable Receipts -$2,667 440,866 33,825 110,570 181,628 59,573 9,400 833,194 -$2,667 440,866 33,825 110,570 181,628 59,573 9,400 833,194 $512,744 -512,744 11,283,613 9,724,876 18,422,752 13,738 76,819 21,666 59,468 Net Outlays $622,430 -622,430 8,655,861 9,766,891 21,666 59,468 8 27,105 24,073 6,413 2,910 -2,902 27,105 24,073 6,413 20,413 235,133 44,005 64,236 40,893 -20,480 235,133 44,005 64,236 19,579 236,633 20,151 57,972 40,605 -21,027 236,633 20,151 57,972 57,599 2,910 54,689 363,787 40,893 322,894 334,335 40,605 293,730 5,227 4,151 1,315 5,227 4,151 1,315 66,180 50,305 11,667 66,180 50,305 11,667 58,308 46,637 10,906 58,308 46,637 10,906 10,693 10,693 128,151 128,151 115,852 115,852 39,059 445,447 443,316 411,075 1,246 7,013 5,612 3,234 71,119 74,125 3,234 71,119 74,125 8,712 131,306 39,162 102 1,246 7,013 5,612 2,132 4,545 406,529 8,712 131,306 53,033 102 52,930 593,925 2,132 591,794 551,093 4,545 546,548 1,384 27,222 19,089 3,611 1,526 -142 27,222 19,089 3,611 6,802 240,828 243,152 65,663 21,702 -14,900 240,828 243,152 65,663 3,341 200,257 257,919 59,435 18,117 -14,775 200,257 257,919 59,435 51,305 1,526 49,779 556,445 21,702 534,743 520,953 18,117 502,836 5,933 -5,933 -10,159 56,264 -56,264 -28,951 62,361 -28,951 -22,468 -62,361 -22,468 150,618 1,703,916 1,582,926 1,580,899 125,629 1,455,271 -10,159 161,090 10,472 120,990 00 TABLE III--BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Contlnued (In thousands) Current Fiscal Year to Date Classification of O U T L A Y S — C ontinued Outlays Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel: Department of the ANavy rmy Department of the Operation and maintenance: Department of of the the ANavy rmy. Department Department of the Air Force, Defense agencies » Procurement: Department of the A r m y Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force Research, development, test and evaluation: Department of the A r m y <>... Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays ^ £ v $822,003 692,142 640,937 2,155,082 $822,003 692,142 640,937 2,155,082 $9,271,331 7,882,597 7,813,683 24,967,611 $9,271,331 7,882,597 7,813,683 24,967,611 $8,732,551 7,336,978 7,658,659 23,728,188 $8,732,551 7,336,978 7,658,659 549,809 549,809 6,241,772 6,241,772 5,127,554 5,127,554 545,884 782,655 718,113 196,348 2,243,000 545,884 782,655 718,113 196,348 2,243,000 7,544,610 8,043,606 8,380,381 2,327,939 26,296,536 7,544,610 8,043,606 8,380,381 2,327,939 26,296,536 7,039,395 6,511,116 7,336,135 1,591,434 22,478,080 7,039,395 6,511,116 7,336,135 1,591,434 192,525 745,899 460,811 10,155 1,409,390 192,525 745,899 460,811 10,155 1,409,390 2,514,507 8,056,830 5,389,674 80,830 16,041,841 2,514,507 8,056,830 5,389,674 80,830 16,041,841 2,784,016 7,026,616 5,366,504 64,112 15,241,248 176,045 274,351 231,838 52,570 176,045 274,351 231,838 52,570 1,964,406 3,020,979 3,307,947 573,167 1,964,406 3,020,979 3,307,947 573,167 2,189,724 2,623,433 3,239,566 529,563 2,189,724 2,623,433 3,239,566 529,563 734,805 734,805 8,866,499 8,866,499 8,582,286 8,582,286 39,016 54,445 30,839 1,739 126,038 39,016 54,445 30,839 1,739 126,038 624,246 516,518 303,380 17,623 1,461,767 624,246 516,518 303,380 17,623 1,461,767 693,362 413,746 286,042 13,390 1,406,540 693,362 413,746 286,042 13,390 1,406,540 23,728,188 22,478,080 2,784,016 7,026,616 5,366,504 64,112 15,241,248 Total—Research, development, test and Military construction: Family housing: 958 108,064 $1,746 -789 108,064 5,683 1,121,738 $3,123 2,559 1,121,738 7,825 878,914 $2,417 5,408 878,914 109,022 1,746 107,275 1,127,421 3,123 1,124,297 886,739 2,417 884,322 8,280 649 44,474 5,519 86,404 4,382 402,411 33,097 86,404 4,382 402,411 33,097 75,333 3,895 8,280 649 44,474 5,519 75,333 3,895 T A B L E III--BUDGET R E C E I P T S A N D OUTLAYS—Continued (In thousands) Department of Defense--Military--Continued Revolving and management funds: Public enterprise funds: Department of the A r m y Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force Intragovernmental funds: Department of the A r m y Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force Defense agencies Total--Revolving and management funds Miscellaneous trust revolving funds Miscellaneous trust funds Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions Total--Department of Defense—Military pepartment of Defense--Civil: Cemeterial expenses, A r m y Corps of Engineers: Intragovernmental funds Other Proprietary receipts from the public Ryukyu Islands, A r m y Wildlife conservation, etc., military reservations .. Soldiers' and Airmen's Home: Soldiers' and Airmen's H o m e revolving fund Other The Panama Canal: Panama Canal Company Other Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions Total--Department of Defense—Civil department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Food and Drug Administration: Revolving fund for certification and other services Other Health Services Administration: Health maintenance organization loan and loan guarantee fund Health services Indian health Other Center for Disease Control lee footnotes on page 3. Applicable Receipts Outlays Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification of O U T L A Y S - -Continued Net Outlays Applicable Receipts Outlays (*) $164 2 (*) $1,152 2 3,065 2 -3,500 -75,904 -60,868 -34,541 -3,500 -75,904 -60,868 -34,541 38,581 -123,393 -74,669 188,445 Net Outlays Outlays $1 36,704 2 38,000 38,581 -123,393 -74,669 188,445 12,645 134,322 74,292 71,246 -$33,639 Applicable Receipts $19 62,402 15 -174,647 -988 -173,659 32,032 -33,639 65,671 330,505 62,436 9,812 1,418 7,355 2,456 1,418 7,087 -5,574 95,107 7,634 91,231 64,965 6,797 82,643 -6,523 3,876 7,634 -177,152 -6,523 -6,552 7,216,049 85,657,991 85,420,124 77,925,579 523 7,751 7,751 11,104 -14,691 2,089,095 -14,691 2,089,095 -49,671 -408 868 -641 1,690,819 12 239 -7,087 -5,574 7,217,077 1,027 523 -45,593 262,869 1,509 70 101 27 1,113 13,359 10,404 25 -45,593 262,869 -1,509 -70 101 2 1,113 11,073 1,130 -4,895 177,152 2 868 286 15,744 2,286 10,404 -1,130 -4,895 -20,945 251,704 67,928 237,867 49,671 410 274 254,728 41,494 152,638 300,135 35,539 381 -84 595 254 15,744 14,257 -3,023 67,928 -41,494 -20,945 213,031 62,300 213,044 37,097 "*-23,'625 237,909 13,807 224,102 2,397,740 346,576 2,051,164 1,967,995 286,316 460 14,877 404 56 14,877 5,490 200,924 5,715 -226 200,924 5,208 165,084 5,411 50,511 22,684 2 8,700 -33,000 785,037 282,795 519 154,491 -33,000 785,037 282,795 519 154,491 680,431 216,057 9,664 133,515 50,511 22,684 2 8,700 (0 TABLE HI-BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Contlnued (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS—Continued Outlays artment of Health, Education, and Welfare—Continued ational Institutes of Health: Intragovernmental funds Cancer research Heart and lung research Arthritis, metabolism and digestive diseases Neurological diseases and stroke Allergy and infectious diseases General medical science Child health and human development Other research institutes Other Total--National Institutes of Health Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration: Alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health Saint Elizabeths Hospital Other iealth Resources Administration: Public enterprise funds Health resources Dffice of Assistant Secretary for Health. education Division: Office of Education: Student loan insurance fund. Higher education facilities loan and insurance fund Elementary and secondary education. Indian education, School assistance in federally affected areas Emergency school aid, Education for the handicapped Occupational, vocational, and adult education..... Higher education Library resources Educational development Other Total—Office of Education National Institute of Education Office of the Assistant Secretary for Education Total—Education Division Social and Rehabilitation Service: Public assistance: Health care services Public assistance and other income supplements«. Social services W o r k incentives 4 Assistance to refugees in the United States Other Total—Social and Rehabilitation Services Applicable Receipts Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays $109,420 52,204 14,128 3,193 7,608 -226 6,185 8,586 13,612 3,660 218,370 $109,420 52,204 14,128 3,193 7,608 -226 6,185 8,586 13,612 3,660 218,370 $1,329 612,246 303,007 145,032 122,092 104,693 147,301 130,435 264,063 59,146 1,889,343 $1,329 612,246 303,007 145,032 122,092 104,693 147,301 130,435 264,063 59,146 1,889,343 $19,594 423,063 269,311 149,182 118,107 104,815 161,037 117,834 193,951 45,837 1,602,730 $19,594 423,063 269,311 149,182 118,107 104,815 161,037 117,834 193,951 45,837 1,602,730 41,004 3,554 34 41,004 3,554 34 905,100 45,163 10 905,100 45,163 10 591,211 40,388 10 591,211 40,388 -24 $10,061 3,093 58,087 27,119 74,330 1,099,257 65,505 1,212 11,117 1,099,257 65,505 32,427 929,013 55,410 1,970 9,024 124,882 13,795 111,087 94,230 26,226 137,536 492 28,733 8,447 17,054 70,879 13,003 45,745 8,882 13,864 379,884 41,752 2,277,069 40,035 618,711 215,943 151,244 652,751 1,838,066 225,810 174,505 97,906 6,458,674 16,293 2,277,069 40,035 618,711 215,943 151,244 652,751 1,838,066 225,810 174,505 97,906 6,419,420 39,816 1,666,900 15,694 558,527 204,575 122,744 569,638 1,176,308 149,896 246,112 78,617 4,923,058 25,382 1,096 82,771 12,557 82,771 12,557 96,635 1,488 406,362 6,554,002 6,514,748 5,021,180 809,227 628,933 205,079 32,017 6,840,366 5,120,577 2,048,758 313,837 88,136 67,783 6,840,366 5,120,577 2,048,758 313,837 88,136 67,783 5,818,391 5,423,353 1,472,201 339,862 13,155 58,087 27,119 10,995 27,215 137,536 492 28,733 8,447 17,054 70,879 13,003 45,745 8,882 13,864 382,843 989 2,959 25,382 1,096 409,321 809,227 628,933 205,079 32,017 19,399 3,553 1,698,208 2,959 19,399 3,553 1,698,208 14,479,457 25,459 39,254 39,254 14,479,457 107,770 63,786 13,225,363 $33 5,985 10,406 27,735 38,142 26,442 929,013 55,410 83,823 12,081 1,666,900 15,694 558,527 204,575 122,744 569,638 1,176,308 149,896 246,112 78,617 4,884,916 96,635 1,488 38,142 4,983,039 5,818,391 5,423,353 1,472,201 339,862 107,770 63,786 13,225,363 V U- T A B L E III—BUDGET R E C E I P T S A N D OUTLAYS—Continued (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS--Continued •epartment of Health, Education, and Welfare--Continued Social Security Administration: Intragovernmental funds Payments to social security trust funds: Health care services General retirement and disability insurance Special benefits for disabled coal miners Supplemental security income program Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund: Administrative expenses and construction Benefit payments Vocational rehabilitation services Payment to railroad retirement account Total—FOASI trust fund Outlays Applicable Receipts $503 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays $503 Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts -$933 $757 $757 Net Outlays 2,527,706 493,788 1,000,055 2,256,654 2,527,706 493,788 1,000,055 2,256,654 847,837 54,838,818 7,731 981,785 723,362 47,847,417 3,873 908,585 723,362 47,847,417 3,873 908,585 56,676,171 56,676,171 49,483,237 49,483,237 22,665 663,851 9,217 28,514 252,148 7,630,633 70,936 28,514 252,148 7,630,633 70,936 28,514 154,281 6,157,797 49,670 22,327 154,281 6,157,797 49,670 22,327 724,247 724,247 7,982,231 7,982,231 6,384,075 6,384,075 12,952 910,765 12,952 910,765 256,142 10,355,390 256,142 10,355,390 258,066 7,806,687 258,066 7,806,687 Total--FHI trust fund 923,717 923,717 10,611,532 10,611,532 8,064,753 8,064,753 Federal supplementary medical ins. trust fund: Administrative expenses and construction Benefit payments 47,638 339,204 47,638 339,204 404,458 3,765,397 404,458 3,765,397 409,150 2,873,649 409,150 2,873,649 Total—FSMI trust fund 386,842 386,842 4,169,855 4,169,855 3,282,799 3,282,799 8,343,559 8,343,559 88,546,903 88,546,903 73,492,135 73,492,135 131 -108 2,558 7,576 131 -108 2,558 7,576 1,994 9,887 27,397 84,574 1,994 9,887 27,397 84,574 1,817 12,168 19,286 79,228 1,817 12,168 19,286 79,228 10,157 10,157 123,852 123,852 112,499 112,499 97,478 75,315 121 97,478 75,315 121 1,109,310 511,922 2,499 1,109,310 511,922 2,499 958,465 420,929 2,777 958,465 420,929 2,777 -6,779 1,685 8,104 106 -6,779 1,685 8,104 106 -2,199 -232 19,616 105,234 1,573 -232 19,616 105,234 1,573 -14,170 -5,090 13,754 72,821 1,048 -5,090 13,754 72,821 1,048 -15,578 X 129,299 129,299 83,696 382,745 "83^696 382,745 73,213 4,655,156 2,356 981,785 73,213 4,655,156 2,356 981,785 847,837 54,838,818 7,731 981,785 5,712,510 5,712,510 Federal disability insurance trust fund: Administrative expenses and construction Benefit payments Vocational rehabilitation services Payment to railroad retirement account 22,665 663,851 9,217 28,514 Total—FDI trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund: Administrative expenses and construction Benefit payments Total--Social Security Administration Special institutions: American Printing House for the Blind National Technical Institute for the Deaf Gallaudet College Howard University Total--Special institutions Assistant Secretary for Human Development: Elementary Secondary and vocational education Social services Research and training activities overseas Departmental management: Intragovernmental funds Office for Civil Rights General departmental management Other Proprietary receipts from the public ;2,199 2,859,995 499,323 967,782 4,779,258 2,859,995 499,323 967,782 4,779,258 U4,170 $15,578 X TABLE HI—BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS—Continued (In thousands) ment of Health, Education, and Welfare—Continued budgetary transactions: Payments for health insurance for the aged: Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Payments for military service credits and special benefits for the aged: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Receipts transferred to railroad retirement account. Interest on reimbursement of administrative and vocational rehabilitation expenses: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Other Total--Department of Health, Education, and Welfare >artment of Housing and Urban Development: [ousing production and mortgage credit: Federal Housing Administration: Public enterprise funds: College housing loans and other expenses Federal Housing Administration Fund Other Other Total--Federal Housing Administration . Government National Mortgage Association: Public enterprise funds: Special assistance functions M a n a g e m e n t and liquidating functions Guarantees of mortgage-backed securities. Participation sales fund Total--Government National Mortgage Association Total—Housing production and mortgage credit ousing management: Public enterprise funds: Rental housing assistance fund Other. Intragovermental funds Housing payments: College housing grants ggw-rent public housing t o m e ownership assistance ... tenia! housing assistance " Supplement • Total Housing m a n a g e m e n t Outlays Applicable Receipts -$129,299 -1,010,299 -24,519 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification of OUTLAYS--Continued Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts ro Net Outlays Outlays -$481,353 -$481,353 -$450,780 -$129,299 -2,329,590 -2,329,590 -2,028,926 -1,010,299 -447,323 -52,000 -48,000 4,010,299 -447,323 -52,000 -48,000 -1,010,299 -441,788 -52,000 -48,000 -930,912 1,886 304 -1,054 1,886 304 -1,054 1,074 -2,661 269 -24,519 -1,136 -27,427 -1,136 -27,427 1,318 -21,113 Applicable Receipts 9,931,712 $15,623 9,916,089 112,533,108 $122,352 112,410,756 93,803,511 $65,149 1,544 325,277 2,330 440 6,706 139,278 44,591 -5,162 185,999 -42,261 440 113,436 2,487,629 667,156 13,673 168,854 1,399,180 723,111 -55,418 1,088,449 -55,955 13,673 136,227 2,146,618 658,912 5,246 172,256 1,283,851 660,655 329,592 190,575 139,016 3,281,894 2,291,145 990,749 2,947,003 2,116,761 260,248 3,349 485 7,365 347,472 25,573 1,284 -87,224 -22,224 -798 7,365 4,044,129 61,913 6,443 -4,676 1,863,861 123,561 16,165 2,180,268 -61,648 -9,723 -4,676 1,895,200 69,453 3,051 32,901 1,853,427 135,693 10,946 2,500 271,448 374,329 -102,881 4,107,809 2,003,587 2,104,222 2,000,604 2,002,567 601,039 564,904 36,135 7,389,703 4,294,731 3,094,971 4,947,607 4,119,328 1,075 24,186 -1,523 2,380 3,183 -1,306 21,002 -1,523 -64 69,980 -37,554 14,799 1,311,617 15,138 12,652 -15,202 57,328 -37,554 -558 731 -3,482 10,573 6,847 14,799 1,311,617 193,996 391,949 174,746 24,430 2,116,107 12,147 1,115,656 249,473 273,666 137,383 26,040 1,811,057 854 854 100,422 16,855 34,623 17,073 697 194,261 100,422 16,855 34,623 17,073 697 188,697 5,564 193,996 391,949 174,746 24,430 2,143,898 27,791 17,419 1,793,638 Classification of OUTLAYS—Continued Department of Housing and Urban Development—Continued Community planning and development: Public enterprise funds: Urban renewal fund. Rehabilitation loan fund Public facility loans Comprehensive planning grants Salaries, expenses and other Model cities programs Open space land programs Grants for neighborhood facilities Grants for basic water and sewer facilities Total—Community planning and development Federal Insurance Administration Policy development and research Fair Housing and equal opportunity Departmental management: Intragovernmental funds Other Other Proprietary receipts from the public Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior:8 Land and Water Resources: Bureau of Land Management: Management of lands and resources Payments to counties, Oregon and California grant lands Payments to states from receipts under Mineral Leasing Act Other Bureau of Reclamation: Colorado River and Fort Peck projects Construction and rehabilitation Operation and maintenance Other Office of Water Research and Technology Total—Land and Water Resources Fish and Wildlife and Parks: Bureau of Outdoor Recreation United States Fish and Wildlife Service: Resource management Recreational resources Other National Park Service: Operation of the National Park System Planning and construction Other Total--Fish and Wildlife and Parks Outlays $165,863 3,902 Applicable Receipts $34,055 1,651 Net Outlays $131,808 2,251 Outlays 217,310 35,706 181,603 $1,949,100 47,779 45,656 96,883 80,175 344,588 51,123 32,646 105,774 2,753,724 6,782 4,780 344 712 6,069 4,780 344 53,941 58,652 11,887 -8,248 1,441 3,521 -97 -20,248 64,699 14,932 6,119 14,828 26,597 -8,248 1,441 3,503 1,021,211 "*'6,*ii9 14,828 26,597 -18 97 606,965 12,221 3,250 414,247 12,471,188 12,221 Applicable Receipts $601,668 18,339 22,270 12,084 642,277 3,629 2,468 4,982,981 Net Outlays $1,347,432 29,440 23,386 96,883 80,175 344,588 51,123 32,646 105,774 2,111,447 Outlays J, 056,324 22,785 45,538 101,302 36,298 468,475 79,928 40,465 136,055 2,987,169 41,858 58,652 11,887 61,884 58,382 9,777 -20,248 64,699 11,303 -2,468 -2,396 47,796 2,388 Applicable Receipts $930,304 17,940 27,254 975,497 14,690 3,946 6,968 Net Outlays ; 1,126,021 4,845 18,284 101,302 36,298 468,475 79,928 40,465 136,055 2,011,672 47,194 58,382 9,777 -2,396 47,796 -1,558 -6,968 7,488,207 9,923,664 159,861 159,861 105,825 105,825 57,789 57,789 47,191 47,191 3,250 117,151 50,087 117,151 50,087 56,748 36,736 56,748 36,736 5,137,849 4,785,815 9,752 25,216 11,184 -41,379 2,117 -5,042 14,794 25,216 11,184 -41,379 2,117 105,820 261,781 101,178 67,236 23,252 54,161 51,659 261,781 101,178 67,236 23,252 125,918 233,046 86,342 55,081 26,594 50,577 75,341 233,046 86,342 55,081 26,594 22,361 -5,042 27,403 944,155 54,161 889,993 773,479 50,577 722,901 38,842 38,842 288,871 288,871 252,970 252,970 7,299 11,557 194 7,299 11,557 194 99,211 68,019 27,812 99,211 68,019 27,812 83,307 51,185 27,013 83,307 51,185 27,013 19,608 4,769 7,354 19,608 4,769 7,354 224,209 56,092 61,497 224,209 56,092 61,497 170,890 39,778 39,815 170,890 39,778 \ 39,815 89,623 89,623 825,709 825,709 664,958 664,958 ^ ee footnotes on page 3. 0) TABLE HI-BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Continued (In thousands) > Current Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification of O U T LAYS- -C ontinued _,artment of the Interior—Continued Energy and Minerals: Geological Survey Mining Enforcement and Safety Administration and Bureau of Mines: Other, Bonneville Power Administration. Outlays Applicable Receipts $19,422 $637 Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts N Net Outlays $178,363 $224,910 $178,363 6,437 161,426 152,798 6,202 $8,052 25,758 -455 181,562 164,379 6,423 -1,616 161,426 152,798 6,202 $19,422 $224,910 6,901 181,562 190,136 6,423 $7,356 587 19,783 15,770 610 -161,817 -50 19,783 177,587 610 56,172 -161,180 217,352 609,931 33,113 576,818 505,226 8,052 497,173 1,831 42,623 15,139 7,599 241 1,590 42,623 15,139 7,599 9,026 469,155 143,635 219,368 1,800 7,226 469,155 143,635 219,368 2,251 401,386 129,004 316,259 2,407 -156 401,386 129,004 316,259 67,192 241 66,951 841,184 1,800 839,384 848,899 2,407 846,492 107,025 44,958 1,074,821 948,343 -47,473 107,025 44,958 -1,074,821 -47,473 101,776 31,316 247,460 8,449 2,332 -247,460 -9,847 -123,670 101,776 31,316 -948,343 -123,670 154,803 3,325,490 2,161,594 2,801,983 1,009,380 1,792,603 2,062 17,422 37,680 12,307 21,015 226,391 438,501 178,765 21,015 226,391 438,501 178,765 17,319 183,031 380,580 148,847 -999 -16 20,127 83,339 10,336 -2,278 179,980 1,039 7,026 225,607 852,863 132,230 -1,195 6,642 203,311 770,428 97,635 2,083,436 1,039 -233 225,607 852,863 132,230 -9,271 2,066,906 1,806,598 592,696 139,127 121,284 592,696 139,127 121,284 2,803,020 372,646 748,648 2,803,020 372,646 748,648 1,453,589 604,978 361,905 1,453,589 604,978 361,905 9,759 9,759 -18,666 -18,666 60,011 60,011 372,000 -4,217 372,000 -4,217 785,000 69,270 785,000 69,270 -8,524 61,038 -8,524 61,038 Bureau of Indian Affairs: Indian tribal funds 8,449 2,332 Proprietary receipts from the public -9,847 236,281 Department of Justice: General administration Legal activities Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Prison System: Other o 81,478 2,062 17,422 37,680 12,307 -999 634 20,127 83,339 10,336 182,908 650 2,278 2,928 1,163,896 7,258 9,271 16,530 17,319 183,031 380,580 148,847 6,928 3,147 10,074 -1,195 -285 203,311 770,428 97,635 -3,147 1,796,523 Jepartment of Labor: Manpower Administration: Temporary and emergency employment assistance .. Grants to states for unemployment insurance and Advances to the unemployment trust fund and other o This Month Classification of OUTLAYS—Continued Department of Labor--Continued Unemployment trust fund: Unemployment insurance and employment services: Grants to States for unemployment insurance and employment services Federal—State unemployment insurance: State unemployment benefits Federal administrative expenses: Direct expenses, reimbursements and recoveries Interest on refunds "!''"."!" Repayment of advances to the general fund!!!"."." Railroad unemployment insurance: Railroad unemployment benefits Administration expenses Payments of interest on borrowings from railroad retirement account Outlays Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays $122,521 $122,521 $1,117,141 $1,117,141 $831,829 $831,829 1,475,206 1,475,206 11,958,177 11,958,177 5,138,719 5,138,719 2,926 116 2,926 116 61,144 660 61,144 660 69,956 625 50,000 69,956 625 50,000 5,888 41 5,888 41 67,113 6,888 67,113 6,888 50,472 6,885 50,472 6,885 80 80 13,211,123 6,148,566 6,148,566 17,971,039 17,971,039 8,681,563 8,681,563 1,885 27,388 27,388 23,550 23,550 5,691 35,283 160 9,257 3,196 3,014 -68 -372,147 71,991 192,334 2,723 90,115 52,150 27,162 55,519 106,523 2,516 69,313 48,681 21,408 -785,147 71,991 192,334 2,723 90,115 52,150 27,162 -1,187 -785,147 -40,976 55,519 106,523 2,516 69,313 48,681 21,408 -1,968 -40,976 2,523,618 17,649,755 17,648,568 8,968,097 -783 5,131 -783 5,131 -468 378,865 -468 378,865 -2,242 328,848 -2,242 328,848 5,593 5,593 30,216 30,216 28,354 28,354 24,120 5,100 476 24,120 5,100 476 29,055 55,322 4,019 29,055 55,322 4,019 36,935 39,358 3,808 36,935 39,358 3,808 Total--Administration of foreign affairs 39,637 39,637 497,009 497,009 435,061 435,061 International organizations and conferences International commissions Educational exchange "" *" Other !'*'"!''"''"*! Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions: Foreign service retirement and disability fund: Receipts transferred to civil service retirement and disability fund. General fund contributions Other '. 1,079 2,456 6,180 21,084 1,079 2,456 6,180 21,084 -278 222,733 22,286 58,331 97,268 222,733 22,286 58,331 97,268 -7,249 223,398 16,827 54,496 52,679 223,398 16,827 54,496 52,679 -7,477 -433 -45,135 -519 -103 -36,935 -2,719 844,292 742,704 Total--Unemployment trust fund 1,606,698 1,606,698 13,211,123 Total--Manpower Administration 2,837,346 2,837,346 1,885 5,691 35,283 160 9,257 3,196 3,014 Labor-Management Services Administration Employment Standards Administration: Salaries and expenses Special benefits other "!"'*'*'! Occupational Safety and Health Administration ..''.'." Bureau of Labor Statistics Departmental management ...'. Proprietary receipts from the public " Intrabudgetary transactions Total—Department of Labor Department of State: Administration of foreign affairs: Intragovernmental funds Salaries and expenses '.'.'.'. Acquisition, operation and maintenance of buildings* * abroad Payment to foreign service retirement and disability fund Foreign service retirement and disability fund*.'.'.'.".'.' Other Total--Department of State -372,147 2,523,685 68 278 -40,200 -86 30,150 278 $1,187 1,187 7,249 -40,200 -433 -45,135 -519 29,872 851,541 7,249 $1,968 1,968 7,477 8,966,129 -103 -36,935 -2,719 7,477 735,227 01 TABLE HI-BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Contlnued (In thousands) Applicable Receipts Outlays Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification of O U T L A Y S - -Continued Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts 0) Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Department of Transportation: $17,728 $17,728 $65,329 -225 449 58,791 7,492 9,343 5,666 81,516 4,286 5,002 652,273 106,110 104,875 60,790 933,337 $4,531 5 137,661 99 2,716 5 137,661 99 2,716 26 1,394,715 13,363 30,344 5,954 30,428 19,219 2,304 30,428 19,219 2,304 -31 -31 51,920 51,920 291,870 223,351 63,612 7 218 579,058 192,400 192,400 2,017,507 4,261 2,305 4,261 2,305 276,797 2,001 6,659 $49,249 $65,329 $49,249 -246 5,002 652,273 106,110 104,875 60,790 928,805 4,407 -7,337 574,385 131,486 86,397 65,619 854,958 $4,442 -36 -7,337 574,385 131,486 86,397 65,619 4,442 850,515 -5,928 1,394,715 13,363 30,344 394 1,290,781 18,733 24,131 19 291,870 223,351 63,612 7 218 579,058 242,999 207,203 68,146 39 2,727 521,114 2,011,552 1,855,152 31,074 67,653 31,074 67,653 28,268 47,496 28,268 47,496 276,797 2,001 6,659 4,619,181 37,006 81,536 4,619,181 37,006 81,536 4,464,462 23,002 22,100 4,464,462 23,002 22,100 292,023 292,023 4,836,450 4,836,450 4,585,327 4,585,327 1,820 18,100 -3,973 1,820 18,100 -3,973 39,106 105,368 5,158 39,106 105,368 5,158 38,649 89,449 29,083 38,649 89,449 29,083 Coast Guard: 201 449 58,791 7,492 9,343 5,666 81,941 Federal Aviation Administration: Aviation w a r risk insurance revolving fund. Operations Civil supersonic aircraft development—termination. Airport and airway trust fund: Grants-in-aid for airports Facilities and equipment Research, engineering and development Other o..... c $426 426 4,531 5,954 375 1,290,781 18,733 24,131 242,999 207,203 68,146 39 2,727 521,114 19 1,855,134 Federal Highway Administration: Other Highway trust fund: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Federal Railroad Administration: Grants to National Railroad Passenger Corporation. Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation 5,061 3,309 8,614 78,100 1,135 5,928 -867 3,309 8,614 78,100 1,135 52,614 51,078 169,004 299,000 14,827 54,222 -1,609 51,078 169,004 299,000 14,827 26,354 38,269 22,518 128,600 33,643 27,424 -1,070 38,269 22,518 128,600 33,643 96,219 5,928 90,291 586,522 54,222 532,300 249,384 27,424 221,960 136,222 537 124 1,304 3,349 136,098 -767 -3,349 753,742 5,264 496 6,764 29,252 753,246 -1,500 -29,252 439,532 4,700 20,579 7,459 31,342 418,954 -2,759 -31,342 833,017 — 11,131 821,887 9,347,781 101,219 9,246,562 8,195,482 91,264 8,104,218 T A B L E III—BUDGET R E C E I P T S A N D OUTLAYS—Continued (In This Month OUTLAYS--Continued ipartment of the Treasury: Office of the Secretary: Public enterprise funds Other f Outlays Total—Bureau of Government Financial Operations Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms United States Customs Service: Salaries and expenses Bureau of Engraving and Printing Bureau of the Mint Bureau of the Public Debt Internal Revenue Service: Federal tax lien revolving fund Salaries and expenses Accounts, collection and taxpayer service.... Interest on refunds of taxes Payments to Puerto Rico for taxes collected... Total—Internal Revenue Service lunited States Secret Service lOffice of the Comptroller of the Currency •Interest on the public debt (accrual basis): Total—Interest on the public debt Total—Department of the Treasury footnotes on page 3. Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts $504 Net Outlays -$509 19,691 -$3,034 27,426 -$6 19,691 1 126,785 179,332 8,031 210 8,333 1 126,785 179,332 8,031 210 8,333 10 88,678 110,899 6,091 413 88,678 110,899 6,091 1,678,074 164 1,678,074 1,714 1,678,074 1,714 2,483 2,483 1,808,909 1,808,909 2,002,481 2,002,481 208,573 208,573 10,631 10,631 94,828 94,828 78,822 78,822 31,302 11,186 -2,786 -1,468 9,490 31,302 11,186 -2,786 -1,468 9,490 298,539 183,329 -4,358 35,421 100,222 298,539 183,329 -4,358 35,421 100,222 224,792 105,371 1,519 22,235 75,909 224,792 105,371 1,519 22,235 75,909 -24 4,853 80,096 91,535 16,385 11,278 495 42,825 731,096 827,859 235,628 121,519 380 114 42,825 731,096 827,859 235,628 121,519 320 35,815 585,976 651,888 220,243 101,484 311 -$232 2,595 $90 27,426 21,805 107,055 1,737 74 21,805 107,055 1,737 74 1,678,074 164 $232 $3,124 } 10 10 413 9 43 4,853 80,096 91,535 16,385 11,278 67 204,189 67 204,122 1,959,421 380 1,959,041 1,595,726 311 1,595,415 391 8,930 7,323 85,775 65,458 57,654 85,775 7,804 68,041 47,577 52,052 68,041 -4,475 2,167,477 597,482 2,167,477 597,482 25,165,328 7,499,680 25,165,328 7,499,680 22,898,573 6,420,360 22,898,573 6,420,360 2,764,959 2,764,959 32,665,008 32,665,008 29,318,933 29,318,933 4,770 -31,176 -66,299 -186,573 6,137,917 6,105,921 -1,344,941 6,137,917 -563,581 -504,727 -1,344,941 -1,250,661 4,575,683 42,306,616 41,177,149 36,622,446 8,930 7,713 4,770 proprietary receipts from the public Receipts fr'om Off-budget Federal agencies Intrabudgetary transactions Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays $<£, uuo „ Bureau of Government Financial Operations:"3 Check forgery insurance fund *.... Salaries and expenses .... Claims, judgements, and relief acts Interest on uninvested funds .... Payment of Government losses in shipment Eisenhower College grants Special payments to recipients of certain retirement and survivor benefits Other Applicable Receipts thousands) -186,573 4,673,849 31,176 66,299 98,166 563,581 504,727 1,129,466 35,815 585,976 651,888 220,243 101,484 371,338 205,489 6,105,921 -371,338 -205,489 -1,250,661 629,695 35,992,751 TABLE HI—BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS—Continued (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS—Continued Energy Research and Development Administration^ Environmental Protection Agency: Revolving fund for certification and other services Research and development Abatement and control Construction grants Other Proprietary receipts from the public Total--Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration: Real property activities Personal property activities: Intragovernmental funds Federal supply service, operating expenses Records activities Automated data and telecommunications activities: Intragovernmental funds , Other Property management and disposal activities Preparedness Activities General activities: Public enterprise funds Intragovernmental funds Other Proprietary receipts from the public: Stockpile receipts Other Intrabudgetary transaction Total--General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Research and development Construction of facilities Research and program management Other Proprietary receipts from the public Total—National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration: Public enterprise funds: Loan guaranty revolving fund Direct loan revolving fund ^Veterans special life Education loan fund • Other Compensation and pensions Readjustment benefits Medical care Medical and prosthetic research See footnotes on page 3. Outlays Applicable Receipts Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays $382,432 $125 $382,307 ,211,574 $13,375 3,198,199 !,370,123 r,921 $2,362,202 (*) 12,703 26,819 264,148 32,497 126 405 166,608 265,349 1,937,575 161,408 651 506 204 2,531,346 883 -246 166,608 265,349 1,937,575 161,408 -232 2,530,463 693 118,496 193,371 1,553,421 166,892 336,167 -126 12,703 26,819 264,148 32,497 -78 335,964 2,032,873 187 118,496 193,371 1,553,421 166,892 -268 2,032,100 42,228 42,228 145,724 145,724 830,469 830,469 -732 12,646 5,642 -732 12,646 4,895 8,112 151,552 60,290 5,901 8,112 151,552 54,389 30,466 104,945 45,374 5,700 30,466 104,945 39,674 9,271 795 -280 1,654 9,271 795 -280 1,654 -6,283 7,020 4,143 8,257 342 -6,283 7,020 4,143 7,915 7,985 6,606 18,992 8,398 30 7,985 6,606 18,992 8,368 80 6,705 -1,065 831 58,676 5 80 6,705 78 747 23 108,312 8,652 -11,872 117,711 -43,005 426,473 -119 105,030 10,543 69,303 231 119 2,420,387 85,307 760,797 3,931 185,107 -119 185,226 35,697 8,018 18,049 12,763 383 28,337 645,983 348,556 363,801 9,712 14 40,498 74,706 105,030 10,543 69,303 231 1,087 831 58,676 -108,312 -8,652 -3,302 -3,302 232 989,520 53,676 -989,520 -53,676 -11,872 268 773 965 1,141 5,918 -959 1,141 5,918 1,282,161 40,944 -1,282,161 -40,944 -6,332 1,329,799 -275,831 5,355 2,421,552 75,127 759,537 1,445 -5,355 -6,332 1,050,527 -624,054 1,053,968 3,714 2,420,387 85,307 760,797 3,931 -3,714 2,421,552 75,127 759,537 1,445 3,270,422 3,714 3,266,708 3,257,661 5,355 3,252,305 17,648 -4,745 420,438 108,064 348,883 149,511 71,555 -41,447 455,410 93,726 390,808 193,114 64,602 -99,388 369 -12,161 645,983 348,556 363,801 9,712 l',448 273,991 7,580,717 4,591,079 3,405,053 93,196 46 305,138 1,402 -31,147 7,580,717 4,591,079 3,405,053 93,196 208,509 6,633,219 3,248,899 2,789,001 77,696 241,139 -32,630 6,633,219 3,248,899 2,789,001 77,696 T A B L E III—BUDGET R E C E I P T S A N D OUTLAYS—Continued (In thousands) Classification of OUTLAYS—Continued «rans Administration—Continued Jeneral operating expenses nsurance funds: Government life National service life ".".*.".".*.*.*.*.*.*.".".".".' Veterans special life insurance fund )ther \ 'roprietary receipts from the public: Government life insurance fund National service life insurance fund Other. '//[ htrabudgetary transactions: Payments to veterans life insurance funds: Government life insurance fund National service life insurance fund '.'.'.'. Total—Veterans Administration lependent agencies: Action A r m s Control and Disarmament Agency! !!!!!!!*!!! Board for International Broadcasting Civil Aeronautics Board: Payments to air carriers Salaries and expenses ] Proprietary receipts from the public !.!!! Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement and disability fund Payment to civil service retirement and disability fund Government payment for annuitants, employees health benefits Employees health benefits fund. [ Employees life insurance fund Retired employees health benefits fund Other Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions: Civil service retirement and disability fund: Receipts transferred to foreign service retirement and disability fund General fund contributions Total—Civil Service Commission Commission on Civil Rights Community Services Administration Consumer Product Safety Commission Corporation for Public Broadcasting District of Columbia: Federal payment Loans and repayable advances Emergency Loan Guarantee Board. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission • footnotes on page 3. This Month Outlays Applicable Receipts $42,897 5,188 43,276 1,869 11,770 (*) -152 1,545,335 Net Outlays Outlays $42,897 $444,566 $672 7,370 14,532 11 651 43,491 234 4,516 35,906 -12,662 11,760 -651 -43,491 -234 95,078 825,311 27,561 161,032 -27 -2,074 138,286 (*) -152 1,407,049 16,204 3,119 16 5,165 1,370 16,200 3,119 16 5,165 1,370 -5 629,773 629,773 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Applicable Receipts $9,383 94,551 68,818 172 6,830 464,948 2,145 Net Outlays Outlays $444,566 $336,976 85,695 730,760 -41,257 160,859 -6,830 -464,948 -2,145 86,967 710,706 23,037 138,737 -27 -2,074 -45 -2,138 $9,240 87,823 64,127 160 7,301 468,036 2,081 77,72 622,88 -41,09 138,57 -7,30 -468,03! -2,08! -4! -2,13c 16,575,008 14,800,701 1,463,828 13,336,871 178,397 9,726 49,858 63,581 17,437 147 (*) 166,943 8,894 50,674 73,362 15,297 195 (*) 7,071,144 178,250 9,726 49,858 63,581 17,437 -134 7,071,144 5,668,972 166,746 8,895 50,674 73,362 15,297 -146 5,668,972 2,384,313 134 3,792,282 3,792,282 2,384,313 51,000 141,318 -41,207 1,163 8,390 51,000 -55,721 -98,666 1,219 8,390 -1 251,000 1,711,895 304,605 17,687 102,584 251,000 -63,079 -303,660 5,760 102,584 -85 163,114 1,425,169 360,240 17,311 88,583 -400 -3,791,292 -27,427 -3,792,282 -27,427 -3,792,282 -15,279 -2,384,236 254,443 535,594 9,431,488 7,036,236 7,708,188 739 54,942 4,806 60 (*) 739 54,882 4,806 5,000 20,072 18 5,463 25,000 111 -4 5,000 -4,928 -93 5,467 6,920 543,589 34,213 62,000 231,800 232,938 -5,570 56,131 6,920 543,351 34,211 62,000 231,800 197,512 -7,144 56,120 6,056 680,813 18,711 47,750 191,533 153,543 -2,863 42,103 790,038 $336,97 1,450,426 3,791,292 -400 -3,791,292 Net Outlays 18,025,433 3,791,292 197,039 57,460 -56 Applicable Receipts 1,774,974 608,265 11,928 85 2,395,252 238 2 35,425 1,574 10 146 1,487,290 515,768 12,041 730 163,114 -62,121 -155,528 5,271 88,583 -730 -15,279 -2,384,236 2,015,828 338 2 12,943 2,006 5 5,692,360 6,056 680,474 18,709 47,750 191,533 140,599 -4,868 42,098 <0 10 o TABLE III--BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-Continued (In thousands) This Month Classification of O U T L A Y S - -Continued Independent agencies--Continued Federal Communications Commission Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Energy Administration Federal H o m e Loan Bank Board: Public enterprise funds: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp. Fund . Federal H o m e Loan Bank Board Revolving Fund.. Interest adjustment payments Federal Maritime Commission Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service Federal Power Commission Federal Trade Commission Foreign Claims Settlement Commission Historical and Memorial Commissions Indian Claims Commission Intergovernmental agencies: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority . Other International Trade Commission Interstate C o m m e r c e Commission National Capital Planning Commission , National Credit Union Administration , National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities.. National Labor Relations Board National Science Foundation National Transportation Safety Board Nuclear Regulatory Commission Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission.. Postal Service: Payment to the postal service fund Railroad Retirement Board: Payment to railroad retirement trust funds Railroad retirement accounts: Administrative expenses Benefit payments, etc Interest on refunds of taxes Payment to railroad unemployment ins. account. Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions: Railroad retirement accounts: Payment to railroad retirement trust funds... Payment from railroad retirement supplemental receipts transferred to railroad unemployment insurance account Interest transferred to federal hospital insurance trust fund Total—Railroad Retirement Board Securities and Exchange Commission Selective Service System See footnotes on page 3. Outlays $3,631 40,164 6,929 6,131 101,393 148 697 1,679 3,340 4,074 109 2,084 119 11,628 281 982 3,617 276 1,393 17,464 4,458 51,804 1,390 20,659 585 46,456 Applicable Receipts 36,843 16,033 3,244 2 (*) -265 3 49 (*) 119 2 (*) 1,111 1 16 (*) 3 2 2,336 296,889 2 Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays Applicable Receipts $47,963 553,878 120,697 $25 961,559 26 $47,938 -407,682 120,671 -9,902 98,149 148 694 1,679 3,605 4,071 109 2,035 119 11,628 162 982 3,615 276 282 17,464 4,442 51,804 1,387 20,657 585 46,456 -35,669 1,308,445 2,478 7,250 15,498 34,424 38,732 1,272 17,764 1,243 175,306 3,807 8,296 46,148 1,742 19,591 128,084 61,100 662,372 8,629 52,792 5,292 1,877,112 279,961 71,093 -315,630 1,237,352 2,478 7,229 15,497 34,407 38,703 1,272 11,581 1,243 175,306 2,357 8,296 43,962 1,742 -13,537 128,082 60,889 662,165 8,617 52,791 5,292 1,877,112 22 1 17 29 '"h',m (*) 1,450 2,186 (*) 33,128 2 211 207 13 2 3,439 3,486 (*) (*) Applicable Receipts Net Outlays $38,146 474,330 29,580 $22 698,063 $38,124 -223,733 29,580 8,380 39,455 2,707 6,488 11,783 26,669 32,359 5,630 10,527 1,161 170,453 4,070 7,079 38,097 1,510 12,300 96,329 55,312 651,630 8,171 4,596 385,455 34,785 -377,075 4,670 2,707 6,475 11,782 26,656 32,339 5,630 5,241 1,161 170,453 2,855 7,079 37,731 1,509 -12,615 96,324 55,073 651,298 8,171 4,596 13 1 13 20 5,286 (*) 1,215 367 (*) 24,914 5 239 331 1,698,000 1,698,000 3,516 22,478 22,478 25,231 3,052,039 18 25,231 3,052,039 18 21,603 2,648,544 15 5,067 21,603 2,648,544 15 5,067 (*) (*) (*) '(*) (*) -3,516 5,748 (*) Outlays 3 3,516 -3,516 299,226 Net Outlays $3,630 3,322 6,929 2,336 296,889 2 (*) Outlays Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year 5,748 -22,478 -22,478 -5,067 -5,067 2,939 2,939 299,226 3,083,037 (*) 3,083,036 2,673,100 (*) 2,673,100 3,438 3,485 44,419 48,465 23 3 44,395 48,463 34,537 59,525 21 22 34,516 59,503 T A B L E H I — B U D G E T R E C E I P T S A N D O U T L A Y S — C o n t i n u e d (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS—Continued Independent agencies--Continued Small Business Administration: Public enterprise funds: Business loan and investment fund Disaster loan fund Surety bond guarantees revolving fund Lease guarantees revolving fund Salaries and expenses Proprietary receipts from the public Intrabudgetary transactions Total—Small Business Administration Smithsonian Institution Temporary Study Commissions Tennessee Valley Authority: Tennessee Valley Authority fund Proprietary receipts from the public Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays , , , United States Information Agency: Salaries and expenses Special international exhibitions Other Proprietary receipts from the public Total--U.S. Information Agency United States Railway Association Water Resources Council Other independent agencies Total--Independent agencies Undistributed offsetting receipts: Federal employer contributions to retirement and social insurance funds: Legislative Branch: United States Tax Court: Tax court judges survivors annuity fund The Judiciary. Judicial survivors annuity fund Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Department of State: Foreign service retirement and disability fund ... Other independ( nt agencies: Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement and disability fund.... Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies: Other independent agencies: Civil Service Commission: Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund Subtotal See footnotes on page 3. $81,776 38,302 819 320 -3,621 Applicable Receipts Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date Net Outlays Applicable Receipts Outlays Net Outlays $574,613 641,242 $311,073 175,624 $263,540 465,618 7,417 21,909 '"*5,'326 2,091 21,909 -11 117,597 47,448 70,149 1,113,249 495,355 1,245,181 492,034 753,147 9,140 1,451 10 88 9,131 1,363 103,132 14,199 29 588 103,103 13,610 84,288 7,181 22 550 84,265 6,631 245,824 139,736 3 106,088 -3 1,976,757 1,209,502 30 767,255 -30 1,265,175 864,038 32 401,137 -32 245,824 139,739 106,085 1,976,757 1,209,532 767,225 1,265,175 864,070 401,105 39,675 610 169 -46 40,408 231,431 7,096 1,742 208,122 5,136 1,639 240,269 736 231,431 7,096 1,742 -736 239,533 214,897 521 208,122 5,136 1,639 -521 214,377 3,200 1,306 1,791 1,441,240 22,700 10,628 24,592 22,758,196 1,213 6,646 22,700 9,415 17,946 1,200 7,694 20,907 906 5,801 1,200 6,788 15,106 5,503,023 17,255,173 18,209,448 4,546,139 13,663,309 -30 -30 -30 -751 -751 39,675 610 169 40,454 3,200 1,322 3,485 1,967,065 i 46 46 16 1,693 525,825 $717,773 354,176 16,392 3,414 21,493 Applicable Receipts Outlays $404,146 176,911 13,554 2,307 21,493 -517 (*) 617,893 129,617 17,481 293 56 $52,159 20,821 527 264 -3,621 -1 Net Outlays -1 (*) $313,628 177,265 2,838 1,107 hii 736 -75,000 -9,000 -18,000 -1,159 -75,000 -9,000 -18,000 -1,159 -810,000 -106,000 -166,000 -12,598 -810,000 -106,000 -166,000 -194,189 -194,189 -1,918,235 -1,918,235 -243,247 -243,247 -966,591 -966,591 -540,596 -540,596 -3,980,206 -3,980,206 -12,598 ii 521 -30 -751 -751 -677,000 -87,000 -147,000 -9,351 -677,000 -87,000 -147,000 -9,351 -1,756,301 -1,756,301 -642,031 -642,031 -3,319,464 -3,319,464 • ^ 10 IV) TABLE MI-BUDGET RECEIPTS A N D OUTLAYS-Continued (In thousands) This Month Classification of OUTLAYS--Continued Outlays Undistributed offsetting receipts--Continued Interest on certain Government accounts: Interest credited to certain Government accounts: The Judiciary: Judicial survivors annuity fund Department of Defense: Civil: Soldiers' and Airmen's H o m e permanent fund Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors ins. trust fund.. Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical ins. trust fund,, Department of Labor: Unemployment trust fund Department of State: Foreign service retirement and disability fund. Department of Transportation: Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust fund Veterans Administration: Government life insurance fund National service life insurance fund Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement and disability fund.... Railroad Retirement Board: Railroad retirement accounts Other Subtotal. Adjustment of interest on public debt issues to Rents and royalties on thebasis outer continental shelf convert to the accrual lands Applicable Receipts Net Outlays -1,628 -144,287 Outlays Applicable Receipts Net Outlays Net ^^ Outlays Applicable Receipts ^v. Outlays -$9 -$586 -$586 -$428 -$428 -1,628 -6,759 -6,759 i -4,112 -4,112 | 1 | ! -2,296,332 -511,841 -607,134 -104,403 -144,287 ; -639,167 1,003,255 -236,298 -298,928 -44,791 -1,003,255 -236,298 -298,928 -44,791 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year Current Fiscal Year to Date N ^ -2,296,332 l -511,8411 -607,134 -104,403 -2,039,730 -479,022 -408,542 -77,243 -2,039,730 -479,022 -408,542 -77,243 -639,167 -649,666 -649,666 -7,162 -3,752 -3,752 -3,583 -7,162 -57,398 -296,483 -57,398 -296,483 -95,957 -585,638 -95,957 I -585,638 1 -28,107 -414,574 -28,107 -414,574 -15,027 -175,567 -15,027 -175,5671 -30,823 -368,048 -30,823 -368,048 -31,098 -338,258 -31,098 -338,258 -963,021 -963,021 -2,135,524 -2,135,524 -1,837,601 -1,837,601 -110,680 -5,387 -110,680 -5,3871 -274,453 -26,175 -274,453 -26,175 -257,039 -8,632 -257,039 -8,632 2,591,500 2,591,500' -7,690,002 -7,690,002 -6,577,804 -6,577,804 -3,583 -764,840! -764,840 -295,420 $295,420 5,427,965 -2,427,965 i,748,394 -6,748,394 Total--Undistributed offsetting receipts -1,305,436 295,420 i -1,600,857 -11,670,208 2,427,965 -14,098,173 -9,897,268 6,748,394 -16,645,662 Total outlays 33,676,874 3,381,302 i 30,295,572 359,758,034 35,157,074 324,600,960 302,621,804 34,229,821 268,391,983 TOTAL BUDGET (Net Totals) (Net Totals) (Net Totals) Receipts (+) 31,816,664 280,996,840 264,932,401 Outlays (-) Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-) MEMORANDUM Receipts offset against outlays (In thousands) Current Fiscal Year to Date Proprietary receipts $11,266,358 Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Intrabudgetary transactions Total receints off«=«»* orr?i„ct ™,tio,rc 40-159.926 Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year $14,241,414 205,489 23,870,115 504,727 28,388,842 i". r, H £i 38.317.019 TABLE IV-MEANS OF FINANCING (In thousands) Classification (Assets and Liabilities Directly Related to the Budget) 23 Net Transactions (-) denotes net reduction of either liability or assets accounts Fiscal Year to Date Account Balances Current Fiscal Year Beginning of This Month This Year Prior Year This Year This Month This Month LIABILITY A C C O U N T S Borrowing from the public: Public debt securities, issued under general financing authorities: Obligations of the United States, issued by: $5,030,269 $58,944,447 $16,918,210 9,000 -460 Deduct: Accrued interest receivable on public debt securities Total accrued interest payable to the public Deposit funds: Miscellaneous liability accounts (Includes checks $474,234,816 $528,148,994 $533,179,263 9,460 9,000 474,234,816 528,158,454 533,188,263 5,029,809 58,953,447 16,918,210 -55,203 -1,069,141 903,209 4,974,606 57,884,306 17,821,420 486,247,088 539,156,788 544,131,393 4,407,351 7,031,178 14,812,849 140,193,922 142,817,748 147,225,099 567,254 50,853,128 3,008,571 346,053,166 396,339,040 396,906,294 -2,077,142 398,631 46,613 2,920,613 5,396,385 3,319,243 -2,617,914 -26,414 357,447 357,447 2,948,947 331,033 540,772 425,045 -310,834 2,563,166 2,447,438 2,988,210 -23,867 -320,992 68,969 510,473 276,733 -296,062 2,767,339 3,357,391 2,860,174 4,188,855 2,836,308 3,867,863 -3,822,315 -366,117 313,251 7,813,617 11,269,815 7,447,500 -3,059,147 51,491,497 2,991,659 -949,038 -1,570,086 -3,416,725 9,159,226 8,538,179 7,589,140 -20,344 222,925 -100,000 245,288 2,194,738 -400,000 2,438,007 -500,000 2,417,663 -500,000 -20,344 122,925 245,288 1,794,738 1,938,007 1,917,663 6,700,000 1,382,534 -825,000 -6,167,242 6,700,000 1,382,534 6,700,000 1,583,970 -21,000 201,436 825,000 248,000 808,251 -5,898,242 -5,919,242 -153,639 -153,639 26,797 1,120,797 524,759 1,090,292 2,184,292 2,211,088 48,982 646,532 119,130 3,549,185 4,146,735 4,195,717 -893,604 320,167 -2,527,548 15,593,442 16,807,2121 -1,251,139 -1,329,763 1,281,389 -2,144,743 -1,009,597 -1,246,159 -914,404 +52,501,093 +4,237,818 -8,896,973 -778,236 -1,521,092 +43,604,120 +3,459,583 Agency securities, issued under special financing authorities (See Schedule B. For other agency Deduct: Federal securities held as investments of 12 12,012,272 10,943,131 10,998,334 362,554,679 417,105,322 414,046,175 A S S E T A C C O U N T S (Deduct) ash and monetary assets:13 Special drawing rights: SDR certificates issued to Federal Reserve Banks Gold tranche drawing rights: U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund: Maintenance of value adjustments (see note on page 24)... Receivable/Payable (-) for U.S. currency valuation Transactions not applied to current year's surplus or deficit Total budget financing [Financing of deficit (+) or , disposition of surplus (-)] See footnotes on page 3. 201,436 14 -606,688 -283,492 -153,639 15,913,609 4,037,74911 2.786,610 4,116,373 L ( ! 20,844,961 18,700.219 19,709,815 ! lj 1 +342,844,864 +396,260,361 +395.345.957 -8,896,973 -8,290,285 i +342.844,864 +387,970,0761+386.448.984 -A-. ; 24 •m TABLE IV-SCHEDULE A-ANALYSIS OF CHANGE IN EXCESS OF LIABILITIES (In thousands) Fiscal Year to Date This Month Classification Excess of liabilities beginning of period: Based on composition of unified budget in preceding period Adjustments during current fiscal year for changes in composition of unified budget Excess of liabilities beginning of period (current basis) , Budget surplus (-) or deficit: Based on composition of unified budget in prior fiscal year , Adjustments during current fiscal year for changes in composition of unified budget Budget surplus (-) or deficit (Table HI). Transactions not applied to current year's surplus or deficit: Seigniorage Increment on gold Net gain (-)/loss for U.S. currency valuation adjustment (see note below) Conversion of interest receipts of government accounts to an accrual basis Off-budget Federal agencies: Export-Import Bank of the United States Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Postal Service Rural electrification and telephone revolving fund Rural telephone bank Housing for the elderly handicapped fundyear's surplus Total--transactions not or applied to current Federal Financing Bank or deficit Excess of liabilities close of period. This Year Prior Year $396,260,361 $342,844,864 $338,607,046 396,260,361 342,844,864 338,607,046 -1,521,092 43,604,120 3,459,583 -1,521,092 43,604,120 3,459,583 -64,469 -626,373 -320,707 -1,219,103 (*) -47,797 -47,797 26,414 26,414 36,612 -119 462,227 54,821 14,284 -1,137 125,852 1,503,701 -34,047 1,112,248 476,670 109,701 -12,928 6,389,383 1,228,276 606,688 8,896,973 778,236 395,345,957 395,345,957 342,844,864 -357,447 773,277 484,402 87,537 102,000 See footnotes on page 3. Note: Beginning with this issue, the U. S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $8,083 billion is reflected on two lines—Direct quota payments and Maintenance of value adjustments (IMF currency valuation adjustments and par value modifications). The balance of $6. 7 billion represents th(; U. S. subscription of $6.7 billion SDR's when S D R 1 = $1. 00. The balance of $1.383 billion represents adjustments reported in May 1972 and October 1973 in the amounts of $574,283,000 and $808,251,000 respectively, for the Par Value Modification Act, as amended. Includes the following currency valuation adjustments for fiscal year 1975; future adjustments will be reported monthly: ^ MOV adjustments Receivable/payable (-) Gain(-)/loss MOV adjustments Receivable/payable (-) Gain(-)/los1974-July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. -22,703 -123,021 16,931 53,153 79, 454 116,796 19,798 102, 409 -13,732 -41,632 -61,776 -90,499 2,905 20,612 -3,199 -11,521 -17,678 -26,297 Jun. 97,483 143,925 -86,518 -40,383 36,028 -69,709 -75,168 -108,241 63,541 29,848 -26,779 48,592 Totals 201,436 -153,639 197 5-Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May TABLE IV-SCHEDULE B-AGENCY SECURITIES, ISSUED UNDER SPECIAL FINANCING AUTHORITIES (In thousands) Classification Agency securities, issued under special financing authorities: Obligations of the United States, issued by: Export-Import Bank Obligations guaranteed by the United States, issued by: Department of Defense: Family Housing Mortgages 4 Department of Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Family Housing Mortgages Obligations not guaranteed by the United States, issued by: Department of Defense: Homeowners Assistance Mortgages . v Department of Housing and Urban Development: Government National Mortgage Association Department of the Treasury: Federal F a r m Mortgage Corporation Liquidation Fund . Independent agencies: Federal "Home Loan Bank Board: Federal H o m e Loan Bank Board Revolving Fund Total agencyLoan securities. Homeowners' Corporation Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority Net Transactions (-) denotes net reduction of liability accounts Account Balances Current Fiscal Year -22,315 -: -35,684 22,977 10,535 : -9,249 21,117 » -47,797 I ^ TABLE IV-SCHEDULE C (MEMORANDUM)-AGENCY BORROWING FINANCED THROUGH ISSUE OF PUBLIC DEBT SECURITIES (In thousands) Transactions Classification Fiscal Year to Date This Month This Year Prior Year Account Balances Current Fiscal Year Beginning of This Year This Month 25 Close of This Month Borrowing from the Treasury: Agency for International Development Commodity Credit Corporation Export-Import Bank of the United States Federal Financing Bank Federal H o m e Loan Bank Board Federal Housing Administration: General insurance fund Special risk insurance fund Government National Mortgage Association: Emergency H o m e Purchase Assistance fund Management and liquidating functions Special assistance functions Rural Electrification Administration Department of Health, Rural Telephone Bank Education, and Welfare:'.'.'.'. Commissioner of Education, student loan insurance Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation........ fund of Agriculture, F a r m e r s H o m e Administration: Secretary Rural housing insurance fund. Agricultural credit insurance fund Rural development insurance fund Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development: College housing loans Low-rent public housing National flood insurance fund Public facility loans Urban renewal fund Secretary of the Interior: Bureau of Mines, helium fund Secretary of Transportation: Washington Metropolitan A r e a Transit Authority. , Smithsonian Institution: John F. Kennedy Center parking facilities , Tennessee Valley Authority , United States Information Agency '/.., Veterans Administration: Veterans direct loan , Total Borrowing fromprogram the Treasury . Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended: Borrowing the Federal Financing Bank: General from Services Administration Secretary of Agriculture '..999999.'. Postal Service SecretaryValley of the Authority.".".' Interior, Defense Tennessee .*.''.'.'..Minerals " .*."." Exploration Bank Administration Export-Import of the United States D.C.Total Commissioners: sinking fund,Bank. Armory Borrowing fromStadium the Federal Financing Board, D.C . . ... Total Agency Borrowing financed through issues of Public Debt Securities -$94,287 141,096 53,353 351,736 98,500 202,268 75,000 70,400 -15,590 -109,440 15,700 -950,000 -138,711 -$94,287 -3,561,667 -2,249,825 12,864,003 1,247,488 730,268 485,000 504,680 -16,710 1,791,560 445,772 82,648 -1,200 -925,000 *-i38*7ii 16,045 25,000 -$46,491 -2,256,284 569,238 602,000 $327,311 8,608,036 2,456,902 602,000 476,000 345,000 1,307,000 1,155,000 -5,320 86,020 74,900 3,058,435 -15,000 400,694 49,422 -2,200 925,000 "i6,*666 42,833 20,000 $327,311 4,905,273 153,724 13,114,267 1,148,988 1,835,000 1,565,000 434,280 i 73,780 4,959,435 6,963,336 49,422 121,076 1,480,718 676,000 388,711 7,409,108 116,370 119,876 1,505,718 676,000 388,711 2,811,000 2,811,000 "*53,'879 360,500 800,000 251,650 "**69J924 385,500 800,000 251,650 20,400 100,000 22,114 1,730,078 1,877,500 98,608 38,800 20,400 150,000 22,114 1,730,078 831 416 44.973.923 $233,024 5,046,369 207,077 13,466,003 1,247,488 2,037,268 1,640,000 -4,505 50,000 -1,877,500 -98,608 -38,800 867 416 -299.559 225,000 225.000 -74,559 9,240.156 1.197.274 1,000,000 1,435,000 4,049,400 6.484.400 500,000 500,000 500.000 500.000 1,697,274 35,934,207 15,724,556 35.434.207 1,500,000 1,210,000 4,049,400 6,759.400 51,733,323 Note: Includes only amounts loaned to Federal Agencies in lieu of Agency Debt issuance and excludes Federal Financing Bank purchase of loans made or guaranteed by Federal Agencies. T h e Federal Financing Bank borrows from Treasury and issues its o w n securities and in turn may loan these funds to Agencies in lieu of Agencies borrowing directly through Treasury or issuing their own securities. TTT 26 TABLE IV-SCHEDULE D--INVESTMENTS OF GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS IN FEDERAL SECURITIES (In thousands) Securities Held as Investments Current Fiscal Year Net Purchases or Sales (-) Classification This Month Federal Funds: Department of Agriculture: Agency securities Department of Commerce Department of Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration: Federal housing administration fund: Public debt securities Agency securities Government National Mortgage Association: Special assistance function fund: Agency securities Management and liquidating functions fund: Agency securities Guarantees Of Mortgage-Backed Securities: Public debt securities Agency securities. Participation sales fund: Public debt securities Agency securities Housing Management: Community disposal operations fund: Agency securities Rental housing assistance fund N e w Communities Administration: N e w communities fund Federal Insurance Administration: National insurance development fund Department of the Interior: Bonneville Power Administration Department of Treasury Veterans Administration: Veterans reopened insurance fund Veterans special life insurance fund Independent agencies: Emergency Loan Guarantee Board Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation: Public debt securities Agency securities National Credit Union Administration Other Total public debt securities Total agency securities Total Federal funds Trust Funds: Legislative Branch: United States Tax Court Library of Congress The Judiciary: Judicial Survivors Annuity Fund Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce , Department of Defense , Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund: Public debt securities , Agency securities , Federal disability insurance trust fund , Federal hospital insurance trust fund: Public debt securities , Agency securities Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund, Other , Beginning of Fiscal Year to Date This Month Prior Year This Year This Month Close of This Month -$6,000 -$6,000 $47,215 $41,215 $41,215 16,012 14,800 62,911 78,923 78,923 1,406,484 191,222 -$242 (*) 199,657 -65 68,450 -5,710 1,206,827 191,288 1,406,726 191,222 111 6,472 -5,731 84,802 91,164 -142 -4,208 -916 47,120 43,054 42,912 1,463 -664 7,345 2,378 7,876 15,958 21,840 3,043 23,303 ' 2,378 28,807 249,018 -25,925 191,193 -7,455 1,068,309 112,670 1,288,520 86,745 1,317,327 86,745 154 14,737 11,001 388 19,572 388 34,155 388 34,309 91,274 , -1,325 -6,500 3,640 11,978 6,803 5,478 -12,300 -7,800 4,800 85,786 90,286 77,986 ^165,564 10,815 176,379 10,815 -1,146,861 -912,537 -570,156 2,363,945 2,598,269 1,451,408 i 11,054 12,083 32,798 41,586 31,322 37,937 284,315 390,575 306,059 420,078 75 7,232 4,755 9,070 16,227 317,113 432,161 16,302 37,410 3,284,343 141,950 40,769 170,630 3,589,989 141,950 53,373 200,235 3,599,854 141,977 16,168 -27,321 234,474 -25,811 9,014,988 625,432 10,287,862 598,780 9,031,156 598,111 -11,153 208,663 9,640,420 10,886,642 9,629,267 398 468 468 1,340 9,865 27 970 5,115 315,511 27 13,574 34,720 377,767 -1,256,706 -670 -1,257,376 13,680 70 -138 50 1,340 1,478 205,350 9,055 9,971 9,956 -91 942 453 508 -19 5 130 328 111 -207 -52 292 1,309 1,463 1,257 -541,720 2,175,159 2,216,641 *23ia08 "-36J822 "391^359 490,474 1,896,528 3,641,990 "^45', 003 "*i47i529 531,054 100 -15 901 55 -434 -217 907 37,162,264 555,000 8,194,588 7,814,355 50,000 1,230,685 182 39,879,143 555,000 7,926,658 9,220,409 50,000 1,423,217 182 39,337,423 555,000 8,157,766 9,710,883 50,000 1,378,214 182 TABLE IV-SCHEDULE D--INVESTMENTS OF GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS »N FEDERAL SECURITIES-Contlnued (In thousands) Securities Held as Investments Current Fiscal Year Net Purchases or Sales (-) Classification This Month Fiscal Year to Date This Year Trust Funds—Continued Department of the Interior, Department of Labor: Unemployment trust fund Other Department of State: Foreign service retirement and disability fund, Other Department of Transportation: Airport and airway trust fund, Highway trust fund , Other Department of the Treasury.... General Service Administration Veterans Administration: Government life insurance fund National service Ufe insurance fund: Public debt securities Agency securities General Post Fund National H o m e s ., Independent agencies: Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement and disability fund: Public debt securities Agency securities Employees health benefits fund Employees life insurance fund , Retired employees health benefits fund ', Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation , Railroad Retirement Board: Public debt securities , Agency securities [.] Total public debt securities, Total agency securities Total trust funds. Off-budget Federal agencies: Postal Service: Public debt securities Agency securities Rural Telephone Bank Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation* Total public debt securities, Total agency securities. Total Off-budget Federal agencies, Grand Total $8,810 -785,463 $7,879 -4,937,917 27 . Prior Year $1,151 1,164,643 Beginning of This Year This Month Close of This Month $2,066 $1,135 $9,945 12,121,390 31 7,968,936 31 7,183,473 31 40,788 48,659 10 38,884 -90 103,446 100 111,317 110 152,105 110 142,932 455,693 1,058,309 1,936,620 877,839 2,049,152 -13 877,839 7,599,203 10 1,793,216 9,080,130 10 1,936,148 9,535,823 10 -7,246 -7,846 4,450 38,506 37,906 30,660 -525 -135 607 3,088 3,478 2,953 10,026 -47,145 -38,860 650,845 593,674 603,700 170,571 110,546 177,823 6,605,188 310,000 1,429 6,545,163 310,000 2,029 6,715,734 310,000 1,429 ""-600 4,809,637 4,275,919 3,465,344 ""42,'878 98,513 -2,937 -5,171 *63^38i 302,503 -7,000 404,284 ""57 ,'144 154,044 -7,300 224,983 965,714 -290,345 -59,778 6,077,957 7,101,921 6,077,957 -413,436 205 -413,231 33,956,123 375,000 245,751 1,396,825 29,081 5,860,812 33,422,405 375,000 266,254 1,600,815 25,018 6,270,267 38,232,042 375,000 309,132 1,699,328 22,081 6,265,096 4,499,124 50,000 3,243,065 50,000 4,208,779 50,000 14,892,328 128,404,763 1,340,000 129,428,727 1,340,000 135,506,684 1,340,000 7,101,921 14,892,328 129,744,763 130,768,727 136,846,684 -71,541 -18,800 -3,629 34,379 -310,058 17,775 4,140 774,855 22,775 11,109 1,116,750 3,975 7,480 34,174 703,315 3,975 7,480 34,379 -40,791 -18,800 -305,918 17,775 785,964 22,775 1,158,404 3,975 745,174 3,975 -413,231 -59,591 -288,143 808,739 1,162,379 749,149 4,407,351 7,031,178 14,812,849 140,193,922 142,817,748 147,225,099 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 MEMORANDUM Investments in securities of privately owned Government-sponsored enterprises: Milk market orders assessment fund Total. Note: Investments are in public debt securities unless otherwise noted. 28 n TABLE V--COMPARATIVE STATEMENT OF BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BY MONTHS OF CURRENT FISCAL YEAR (Figures a r e rounded in millions of dollars a n d m a y not a d d to totals) Classification July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March Fiscal Year To Date Comparable Period Prior F.Y. $16,065 $1,630 $13,123 122,386 5,093 1,174 9,578 40,621 118,95 38,62 April May June RECEIPTS Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions: Employment taxes and contributions Unemployment insurance ... Contributions for other insurance and retirement.. Excise taxes Estate and gift taxes Customs Miscellaneous Total—receipts this year iio,806 1, 485 110,485 $13,947 $10,590 $10,832 $10,799 $15,487 $7,747 778 6,268 1,188 828 797 5,647 1,206 $4,134 6,579 005 418 7,813 1,363 5,668 62 4,558 221 6,633 762 4,995 89 5,025 245 7,895 732 6,476 21 7,181 557 8,029 2,209 5,926 75,204 92 6,771 358 517 418 325 607 368 1,415 453 355 540 389 1,465 352 305 543 363 1,401 370 347 578 353 1,474 350 319 773 356 1,489 341 307 301 402 1,351 385 307 629 352 1,277 399 260 535 373 1,160 356 295 741 388 1,166 317 286 399 350 1,373 459 270 559 413 4,466 1,464 16,551 412 4,811 301 3,676 508 6,711 20,939 23,620 28,377 19,633 22,292 24,946 25,020 19,975 20,134 31,451 12,793 31,817 280,997 18.210 24,843 17,642 20,206 23,475 20.224 16,819 29,660 59 -1 61 53 Total-receipts prior year .... 21,365 21,990 19,240 31,259 68 18 42 16 60 18 1 4,05) 16,84 5,03l 3,33: 5,36! m 264,93* I OUTLAYS Legislative Branch. The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Other Department of Agriculture: Foreign assistance, special export programs and Commodity Credit Corporation Other Department of C o m m e r c e .... Department of Defense: Military: Department of the A r m y . . Department of the Navy... Department of Air Force Defense agencies ........ Civil defense Allowance undistributed .. Total Military Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social and Rehabilitation Service Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trudt fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Other. 65,89 6,83 726 284 62,' at 93 i E -313 -136 222 59 137 67 75 79 71 59 141 77 102 206 165 100 216 73 -150 223 137 60 35 216 168 362 994 170 65 75 69 161 60 120 220 1,557 1,021 i,£ i EE is -118 502 127 -65 411 128 73 •543 111 1,663 2,086 1,783 781 1 1,994 2,187 2,126 747 8 1,866 2,124 1,982 766 7 1,992 2,277 2,189 781 6 1,869 2,258 2,200 1,055 7 1,920 2,315 2,137 879 6 1,832 2,296 2,108 984 10 1,749 2,185 2,103 999 8 1,815 2,369 2,084 1,024 8 1,536 2,326 2,162 960 5 6,313 7,062 6,745 7,246 7,389 7,258 7,231 7,044 7,300 6,989 125 177 203 200 456 307 149 162 327 127 136 769 133 148 1,397 155 219 549 123 151 678 141 182 847 128 id: 75 1,087 151 1,519 8,206 1,583 1,913 2,497 2,154 1,054 9 1,768 2,472 2,017 950 8 21,918 27,393 25,042 10,980 7,627 7,216 85,420 77,6^ 2,051 l,6!v 101 789 109 8,irc ____ — t 21,3f 23|9t 23>9V 211 198 1,114 1,108 1,149 1,101 1,133 1,299 1,243 1,225 1,006 676 1,728 1,698 14,479 4,435 4,505 4,579 4,598 4,581 4,673 4,628 4,717 4,739 4,732 4,779 5,713 56,678 617 623 610 651 658 679 662 669 702 675 712 724 7,983 6,3K 793 823 765 860 832 872 908 901 976 1,004 953 924 10,610 8,0f 309 1,422 313 1,436 292 1,450 339 1,491 349 1,579 332 1,582 385 1,963 344 1,361 368 1,937 403 2,640 387 471 4,169 18,492 3,2! 13.2J 153 129 137 138 156 347 1,161 224 13,21, 49,45 TABLE V--COMPARATIVE STATEMENT OF BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BY MONTHS OF CURRENT FISCAL YEAR-Contlnued 29 (Figures are rounded in millions of dollars and m a y not add to totals) July Classification Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June Comparable Period Prior F.Y. Fiscal Year To Date OUTLAYS—Continued Department of Housing __l Urban Development Department of the Interior.... Department of Justice ^apartment of Labor: U n e m p l o y m e n t trust fund ... Other Department of State rtment of Transportation: riiway trust fund aer rtment of The Treasury: •rest on the public debt.. erest on refunds, etc. ... aeral revenue sharing ... ler Energy Research and Development Administration Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration: Compensation, pension, and benefit programs Government life insurance fund National service life Insurance fund Other... Independent agencies: Civil Service Commission .. Postal federalService employer contribuSmall tions Business to retirement fund .., Administration Interest credited to certain Tennessee accounts Valley Authority. Other andRoyalties on Outer Rents Undistributed re- .., Continentaloffsetting Shelf Lands Allowances Undistributed Total outlays—this year.. Total Outlays-prior year 240 146| 597' 355j 166 j 230 277 ' 2,687 | 19, 1,538; 23 j 121 i 119 \ $573 $606 180 ; 176 173; 150 556 i 561 207 ! 258 67 538 561 322 i 406 $621 133 152 933 217 62 2,714 |2,662 19 | 41 1,533 i 4 -88 j 145 272 ! 300 I 165 i 200 2,794 18 (**) -135 259 481 353 205 i -296 i -10 216 247 -24 ; -170 | -2 267 281 I 297 96 288 $501 70 185 1,727 482 51 359 361 $514 $414 $7,488 ! •4,786 155 1,793 163 2,162 ! 180 1,797 172 2,067 1,610i 1,607 13,211 i; 6,149 2,818 917 4,437 457! 735 30 844 57: 4,738! 4,510 285 334 4,509 3,595 536 449 162 293 2,740 15 1,524 180 308 2,7611 2,765 18 23 5 (**); 18! 1,788 382 244 271 325 258 69 -133 -25; -43 $372 $794 75 216 175 167 1,293 1,456 I 1,738 475 343 ; 275 I 74 j 48 81 i 385 399! 284 j 353 405; 355 265 205 2,739 20 2,810 2,621 12 20 (**) 1,528 105 -114! 1 308 235 | 205 ! 201 I -122 | 36 298 ! 283 («*) 336 32,665 i 244 6,138| 2,131j 3,198 29,319 226 6,106 342 2,362 2,530 2,032 -624! -276 1 3,267 1 3,252 315 287 301 185 628 639 639 646 7,581 6,633 5 5 86 78 40 821 39 779 36 721 731 8,178 623 6,003 639 671 536 46 7,036 1,877 5,692 1,698 18 70 106 69 683 553 618 767 6,957 753 401 5,119 i 666 i 621 612 | 621 615 ; 622 653 ; 619 j i 9 ; 5 ; 59 i 50 522 j 557 6 : l 59; 539 597 7 5 7! 51 474 | 489 j 528 562 388 ; 1,163 : ! 671 577 281 553 I 633 ! -271 ; -286 -309 -269 -717 -692 | -527 i 191 i 46 750 | 722 61 677 30 21 308 53 75 543 35 69 543 -278 j -619 -285 -232 -327 -3,980 | -3,319 -749 ! -697 -427 -693 -691 i -530 -765 -7,690 1 -6,578 -312 -295 i-2,428 | -6,748 i i -697 ! -492 I i ! -30 ' -59 -48 -317 !-1,148 -49 Surplus (+) or deficit (-) prior year .... -4,506 20,670 I 23,105 -1,787 +3,666 -6,827 -745 +4,173 22,079 -2,673 -5,463 -1,873 -34 -58 -300 -35 ! -44 -541 28,934 26,200 27,986 29,601 j28,186 130,296 324,601 19,681 I 23.664 ,21,039 22,902 22,219 -2,496 -3,914 -6,225 -7,852 | +1,850 •15,394 nl,521 -43,604 24,411 ! 25,408 > 24,712 , 26,46024,965 27,442 22,717 i 22,110 581 23 59 461 23 i 62 122 70 I 580 j 854 -264 1 5 21 ! 6 56 947 12 70 825 55 I 46 i 694 6 j 44 669 31 ! 205 ! 27 i 33 ! 471 441 Surplus (+) or deficit (-) this -3,472 year See footnotes on page 3. $681 i 242 : 159 : ! 540 | 593 ' 196 i 256 74 | 67 ! i 413 ! 469 | 357 \ 333 : ! 2,657 ! 20 : 2,715 18 ! (**) , 7! -125 ! 168 j 235 \ 242 139 j 107 231 202 +2,309 -189 -815 -6,083 +7,441 24,034 \24,172 •4,794 +7,087 268.392 -3.460 /7> 30 TABLE VI--TRUST FUND IMPACT ON BUDGET RESULTS AND INVESTMENT HOLDINGS (In millions) Classification Receipts Trust receipts, outlays, and investments held: Federal old-age and survivors Federal supplementary medical Federal employees retirement.... Federal employees life and health Receipts Outlays Excess of receipts or outlays^) .. Beginning of This year This month Close of this month $3,650 450 610 $309 267 502 $55,207 7,250 11,258 $52,143 7,284 9,305 $3,065 -34 1,952 $37,717 8,195 7,864 $40,434 7,927 9,270 $39,892 8,158 9,761 168 245 213 -4,602 -45 4,847 1,901 2,565 1,737 -1,779 166 4,344 1,231 34,435 1,423 1,378 38,759 -153 3 -5 5 7 23 189 678 -242 323 153 -3 91 -5 500 -23 -49 -586 242 -321 -361 -408 483 6,138 4,257 -878 2,805 11,788 -99 16 361 408 479 67 1,931 878 -1,316 -5,017 99 24 1,672 5,861 878 1,892 6,270 1,793 2,031 6,265 1,936 7,599 9,080 9,536 4,549 12,121 7,567 56 3,293 7,969 7,452 57 4,259 7,184 7,631 7,026 1,148 5,878 99,836 92,428 7,408 129,745 130,769 136,847 8,362 8,362 19,726 19,726 15,388 9,510 5,878 119,562 112,154 7,408 24,791 29,148 -4,357 187,366 238,377 -51,012 11 11 130 130 24,802 29,159 187,496 238,507 -8,373 -8,373 -26,061 -26,061 31,817 30,296 280,997 324,601 86 507 139 92 2 Trust funds receipts and outlays on the basis of Table DJ and investments held from Excess of Outlays receipts or outlays^) $3,958 717 1,112 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp... Railroad retirement Securities Held as Investments Current Fiscal Year Fiscal Year to Date Current Month Interfund receipts offset against 962 6,205 6,188 1,489 6,771 40 57 Total trust fund receipts and Federal fund receipts and outlays on the basis of Table HI Interfund receipts offset against Total Federal fund receipts and Total interfund receipts and outlays ... -4,357 1,521 -51,012 ' -*'iSE */- -43,604 See footnotes on page 3. Note: Interfund receipts and outlays are transactions between Federal funds and trust funds, such as, Federal payments and contributions, Federal employer contributions, and interest and profits on investments in Federal securities. They have no net effect on overall budget receipts and outlays since the receipt side of such transactions is offset against budget outlays. In this table, interfund receipts are shown as an adjustment to arrive at total receipts and outlays of trust funds and Federal funds respectively. Included in total interfund receipts and outlays are $6,205 million in federal funds transferred to trust funds for general revenue sharing. TABLE VII-SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION (In thousands) 7 31 Total Budget Source This Month Fiscal Year T o Date Comparable Period Prior Fiscal Year NET RECEIPTS t idividual income taxes orporation income taxes ocial insurance taxes and contributions: , Employment taxes and contributions Unemployment insurance Contributions for other insurance and retirement ... xcise taxes .state and gift taxes justoms liscellaneous | Total .. $13,123,107 9,577,550 $122,385,980 40,621,179 $118,951,631 38,619,654 5,926,474 92,123 412,517 1,463,895 411,765 301,395 507,837 31,816,664 75,204,416 6,770,706 4,465,868 16,550,686 4,611,125 3,675,532 6,711,349 280,996,840 65,892,164 6,836,545 4,051,342 16,843,668 5,034,640 3,334,138 5,368,613 264,932,400 7,854,311 557,031 256,456 787,840 178,844 1,288,859 452,558 1,684,441 2,594,133 11,564,166 1,412,451 237,629 521,010 -14,400 2,521,100 -1,600,857 30,295,572 88,238,343 4,198,391 4,153,842 7,921,034 1,991,066 15,565,537 4,410,026 15,110,280 27,444,483 108,888,538 16,595,145 2,759,043 3,704,602 6,699,984 31,018,819 324,600,960 -14,098,173 78,568,540 3,593,005 4,154,043 6,390,241 2,230,029 13,100,014 4,910,094 11,600,144 22,073,035 84,431,067 13,386,006 2,462,102 3,327,174 6,746,029 28,072,121 -16,651,661 268,391,983 ', OUTLAYS 'ational defense i&ernational affairs and finance Jeneral science, space, and technology Jatural resources, environment, and energy •griculture Commerce and transportation ommunity and regional development ducation, manpower, and social services ealth come security Veterans benefits and services 7lw enforcement and justice eneral government jvenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance. terest Distributed offsetting receipts Total GP0 BHi'l For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C. 20402 I Subscription price $62.20 per year (domestic), $15. 55 per year additional (foreign mailing), includes all issues of daily Treasury statements, i the Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States and the Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts 5 and Outlays of the U. S. Government. N o single copies are sold. ^ — — — — — — * —————mmmmm-m^——. [fie Department of theTREASURY ASHINGTON, D.C. 2022 TELEPHONE 964-2041 r •a- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 29, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $3.1 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $3.2 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on September 4, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are. as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing December 4, 1975 Discount Rate 98.407 a/ 6.302% 98.381 6.405% 98.387 6.381% Price Investment Rate 1/ High Low Average a/ Excepting 1 tender of $1,295,000 b/ Excepting 1 tender of $1,000,000 6.51% 6.62% 6.59% 26-week bills maturing March 4, 1976 Discount Price Rate 96.552 b/ 6.820% 96.520 6.884% 96.529 6.866% Investment Rate 1/ 7.18% 7.25% 7.23% Tenders at the low price for the 13-weak bills were allotted 77%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 71%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District R Bceived Boston $ 55,945,000 New York 3 ,876,690,000 63,335,000 Philadelphia 129,960,000 Cleveland 94,690,000 Richmond 37,395,000 Atlanta 326,430,000 Chicago 52,970,000 St. Louis 44,470,000 Minneapolis 46,230,000 Kansas City 32,175,000 Dallas 604,090,000 San Francisco T0TALS$5,364,380,000 Accepted Received Accepted $ 81,180,000 $ 26,180,000 $ 39,945,000 4,909,245,000 2,130,595,000 2,069,555,000 61,875,000 16,875,000 46,335,000 233,940,000 172,940,000 89,960,000 : 98,915,000 72,335,000 82,940,000 67,325,000 54,325,000 36,515,000 547,590,000 181,880,000 178,055,000 63,360,000 39,360,000 2. 38,940,000 51,395,000 27,395,000 ~ 29,470,000 44,230,000 43,650,000 35,035,000 33,880,000 19,380,000 27,175,000 680,785,000 424,545,000 417,940,000 $3,101,060,000 c/ $6,873,140,000 $3,200,845,000 d/ c/ Includes $518,160,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. d/ Includes $293,260,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. JuoKy 3\}\°n5 UNITED STATES SAVINGS BONDS ISSUED AND REDEEMED THROUGH (Dollar amounts in millions - r o u n a W and will not necessarily add to totals) DESCRIPTION AMOUNT REDEEMED- AMOUNT ISSUE o-f AMOUNT OUTSTANDING—' % OUTSTANDIN* OF AMOUNT ISSU MATURED Series A-1935 thru D-1941 _ Series F and G-1941 thru 1952 ^TOOA Series J and K 1 9 5 2 thru 1957 INWATURED Series E-^ : 1941 1942__ 1943. 1944. 1945 1946. 1947 1948 1949 1950. 1951 1952 1953 1954. 1955 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965_ 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972_ 1973_ 1974. 1975. Unclassified Total Series E ierres H (1952 thru May, 1959) 4L H (June, 1959 thru 1974$ _ Total Series H Total Series E and H Total matured All Series Total unmatured Grand Total I 7hi •' 9 t /3?c /fr/4'7 MZ ian M^.T? S.O'-H *\ 700 J£lTO__ _L20I _± o tfO r rfiii ^^.i •T 7fe ? 9 9 -• c^ TO 3/ 1± iS 71 J.) .T ?fe5 r >L o I ToT ^ SlQ__ M ")0l Tm ^g vs 77^ 331 VL 5090 r _l 'JL \H5 ^ ^05 k ^ r 9 -f ^11 3o____ c*L H 3'9r I7& 7 76. LOS* 9X7 22 / 7^ ££5 ?6>7L /^•/V i^S 7, 9 ? /£3/ C7i £ /T7^ 1 2 etc 8 ^ 3h78 11 /-.'• ?A L± o o ^ 4 /*/<? ^iL ?^/7 3 75-^ 3 3 ?5' 3.3 k.? 3£fl7 ^, H 'i 7 -— 172 3-XZH 3 ^ V.? -? ? ^ ••o XLX(r.O JIHD ?5 AJ1L -' 7*. 4 S3. L 'To i JLl. Q(o v • " — 91 i • iM 5//5 s~ If 7T~ o 99 ^ £ or Z^foJ- JL I VIS ± -ill 76~,<V n I PO 9___ r lA9L /5g3 7T sWH ./) Yf /•^-7 / -"• a, ,c ^7 ?.a ^ ^ CL • ?^-/>^ X ^ 6 '.2. AI'3,f -OL .12. /J^^ / </S J 5iq /£S7 /£*,/ /££>£> ^0^7 -£^i -J c-£LVl 3S-9>9 ;?.*>. 3X 2iL •?/•>?£ ^cyg ^.o^/ 43£k p.o^rW^A?*? 3<H7 ^ 51L ^"^ r? I'c 7 ^"^ t?7-V7 ^7. ^// :££_£ ,r/-7r^ •5 7'3P> £; /' In { .21>A9L ?^>7^r 0-5^ ^y 7- ^.7'YJ ^S 3 'r^'V /0?3b ist^h 1o o-n lU 3^-</ a?ni ^r~ II ILI3L.X ^50 /g5?r?ft HW1 59,00 • ?ftr-^6 2 &J..Cl__l ^ ^ « « sa The DepartmentoftheTREASURY tfHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 / FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. September 2, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $6,100,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued September 11, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,900,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated June 12, 1975, and to mature December 11, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 YB6), originally issued in the amount of $2,591,450,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $3,200,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated September 11, 1975, and to mature March 11, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YX8). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing September 11, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,107,490,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,873,815,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, September 8, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99-925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000 o r less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on September 11 1975 ^-n cas b or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing September 11, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treatment. Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or £6/ For Release on Delivery at 11:00 a.m., EDT, Tuesday, September 2, 1975 ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY OF THE UNITED STATES BEFORE THE 1975 ANNUAL MEETINGS OF THE BOARDS OF GOVERNORS OF THE WORLD BANK GROUP AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AT THE SHERATON PARK HOTEL WASHINGTON, D . C , SEPTEMBER 2, 1975 Mr. Chairmen, Mr. McNamara, Mr. Witteveen, Fellow Governors and Ladies and Gentlemen: It is a privilege to address this distinguished audience once again and to share with you today the views of the United States on the major economic issues facing the world. In general, the outlook for the international economy is now more hopeful than it was earlier this year. Most of the major industrial countries have adopted vigorous expansionary policies. Several nations, including the United States, have begun the process of recovery. Despite serious strains, the level of international cooperation remains undiminished. Few countries have resorted to policies which might yield domestic gains at the expense of their neighbors. And the more affluent nations are strengthening their efforts to assist those who are less fortunate. Yet there can be no doubt that the pattern of progress is highly uneven. In a number of countries, the downward economic spiral continues still, becoming more prolonged and severe than once expected. The hardships created by an inflation of unparalleled strength, brutally sharp and unanticipated increases in the cost of energy, and a harsh recession -- all of these remain a painful, living reality in too many parts of the world. Thus, the urgent task still before us is to work together in restoring a broadly based, forward momentum to the world economy which will provide the foundation for sustained, non-inflationary growth in every nation. As we press forward, it is essential that we maintain our bearings: -- We must carefully support and encourage the forces of recovery without yielding to the temptations of excessive stimulation; S-378 Jhz, -- We must persevere in our efforts to control inflation without disrupting the process of recovery. A durable recovery will be possible only if we master the causes of inflation; -- We must reach a better accommodation on the problems of energy while continuing to support the oil-exporting nations in their quest for economic advancement; -- We must encourage economic development among poorer nations; -- And we must ensure that we have a smoothly functioning monetary system. Let me turn now to a more detailed consideration of each of these issues. Prospects for Economic Growth The United States is acutely aware that its own economic policies bear heavily not only upon the livelihoods of our own citizens but upon those in other nations as well. While our economy is no longer as predominant in the world economy as it once was, our gross national product still amounts to over one-quarter of the world total and we represent the world's largest import market. Therefore, the single most important contribution we can make to the health of the world economy is to achieve durable, non-inflationary growth within our own borders. Fortunately, there is now abundant evidence that an economic recovery is well underway in the United States. My government is determined to sustain this recovery while also bringing inflation under control and adopting those policy measures necessary for lasting growth. We need not, and we should not, seek to choose among these objectives. We have learned from hard experience that all of our economic goals must be pursued simultaneously. We will not provide excessive stimulation that would only intensify inflationary pressures, preempt the capital that is needed to sustain the recovery, and run the risk of setting off another vicious cycle of inflation and recession. Nor will we allow our concern with inflation to prevent us from actively supporting the natural forces of recovery or taking additional expansionary measures if they should be needed. We are not ready to acquiesce in either stagnation or inflation as a way of life. Some have suggested that in order to help other nations out of recession, the United States should embark upon much more stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. We respectfully disagree. Too many of our current domestic troubles are rooted in such excesses in the past. - 3 Since 1965, the average U.S. Federal budget deficit and the average annual growth in our money supply have been about three times as large as in the preceding decade. It is no accident that during the earlier period our country enjoyed reasonable price stability while in recent years we have had increasing difficulty in containing inflation. And inflationary expectations are now so deeply embedded in our society that they will not disappear quickly. The financial sins of a decade cannot be forgiven by a day of penance. Our policies in the United States must be designed to attack the causes of inflation, not their results. In the long run, that will bring the most lasting benefits to us all. While the revival of the United States economy will help to bolster both the economic prospects and the confidence of other nations, it would be unrealistic to expect that any single country could lead the rest of the world out of recession. Expanded world trade should not be regarded as the source but as the product of recovery. Indeed, let us recognize that the process of solving our economic troubles must begin at home with each country acting on its own to make the tough decisions that are essential for sound, durable growth. As that process spreads from one nation to the next, it will become mutually reinforcing and all nations will realize greater benefits. In addition to the expansionary efforts undertaken by the United States earlier this year, several other major industrialized nations have now adopted more stimulative policies. Taken together, these actions should provide a forward thrust to the world economy. As our policies of expansion gradually take effect, we ask ourselves: Have we done enough? Should we do more to speed up the effects? To the extent that some of our people believe we are not moving rapidly enough to create jobs and to restore our standard of living, there may be adverse social and political pressures. Yet it is equally clear that if we overheat our economies, we will re-ignite the fires of inflation and create another recession with more serious economic and social consequences. Our highest responsibility as finance ministers, I would respectfully suggest, is to pursue sound, balanced policies which promote economic growth without encouraging renewed inflation. That often proves to be politically unpopular in the short run, but in the long run it will do far more to create jobs and serve the best interests of our people than the palliatives so often urged upon us. History is littered with the wreckage of governments that have refused to face up to the ravages of inflation, and none of us can afford, either through short-sightedness or lack of determination, to yield to these temptations. Beyond the problems of determining fiscal and monetary policies, nations must also deal with the difficulties created by high oil prices. Almost two years after the first oil price shock, it is evident that we are only beginning to understand the full impact as well as the threat to our future which is posed by escalating oil prices. It is now - 4 obvious that the most serious consequences are not financial but political and economic. While we must and will continue to devote special attention to the problems of the financial system in adjusting to new realities, we can be confident of our capacity to manage such problems. But the economic consequences of these oil policies -- the higher costs that have come not just in energy but in many other vital commodities such as food, the structural adjustments that have been necessary, the loss of jobs, and the obstacles to economic growth -- cannot be so easily managed. In our view, current price levels for international oil can be justified on neither economic nor financial grounds. The present pricing policies of the OPEC countries mean that cheap energy remains in the ground and that the prosperity of all nations is diminished. Moreover, high oil prices lie at the root of much of the world's recent inflation and the recession that followed. Yet now the possibility of another increase in oil prices looms on the horizon. Let there be no misunderstanding about the result of another major price increase: it would seriously jeopardize the balance upon which global economic recovery now depends. We urge the OPEC nations to recognize, as others have done in the past, that the prosperity of each nation is deeply intertwined with the prosperity of all nations. Another price increase seems especially inappropriate in light of our efforts to address the legitimate problems facing the oil exporting nations as well as other developing countries. We have taken significant steps to bring about a dialogue between producers and consumers. We have proposed the establishment of commissions to deal with critical problems in the areas of energy, raw materials, development and related financial questions. Special bilateral programs have been set up with the oil exporting countries and considerable progress has been recorded. All of these measures reflect our sincere desire to work cooperatively with the oil exporters as they strive for higher standards of living and more diversified economies. In turn, we urge that they work cooperatively with us and with other nations to enhance the prospects for a world economic recovery. Let me add that the substantial financing requirements of industrial countries in this period of OPEC surpluses dictate that we continue to keep the adequacy of international financing arrangements under review. I am confident that in the future, as in the past two years, private financing mechanisms will continue to play the dominant role in channeling OPEC funds to various borrowers. At the same time, we welcome the prospective establishment of the Financial Support Fund agreed upon among the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That fund will supplement IMF resources and provide - 5 needed insurance in an uncertain period. Particularly important in present circumstances is the assurance thereby provided that, if needed, financing will be available to facilitate the pursuit of sound expansionary policies by the industrial countries. Problems of the Developing Countries Those who have suffered the most from higher oil prices and the deterioration in world economic conditions have been those who least deserve to suffer and are least able to protect themselves -- the poor and the needy of the developing countries. In the industrialized nations, the problems of inflation, exorbitant energy prices and the resulting recession have often meant hardships, but they have not brought large numbers of people to the edge of desperation. Hopes for the future may have been dampened but they have not been crushed. Sadly, the same cannot be said of the less fortunate nations of the world, where hunger and illness are the immediate result of reduced incomes. In these circumstances, the United States and other industrial nations are determined to make special efforts to assist developing nations in their efforts to sustain the momentum of their economic and social progress. We do so from a sense of compassion, and out of a realization that the prosperity of the developing world also serves to support our own continued prosperity. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have already proven that they are highly effective instruments for working with developing countries in devising the most promising plans for economic growth. But we believe that more must now be done within the framework of those institutions to assist the developing countries. Yesterday, in a speech read on his behalf at the United Nations, Secretary Kissinger set forth a range of proposals that he and I, under the leadership of President Ford, have developed together. Three of those proposals are of particular importance for the Fund and the Bank. First, the United States proposes as a matter of high priority that a development security facility be created in the IMF to meet the needs of those developing nations suffering from sharp fluctuations in export earnings. It would replace the existing compensatory finance facility. We fully recognize that excessive fluctuations in export earnings can disrupt development efforts and that many producing nations lack sufficient financial reserves to cushion themselves against sharp drops in their earnings. We believe that compensatory facilities to finance shortfalls in export earnings would be both more effective and more efficient in reducing such disruptions than commodity pricing arrangements. Shortly after the completion of these meetings, we will submit detailed proposals to the Executive Board of the IMF calling for the _3*fi -6 creation of the facility. They will also call for broadening the purposes of the proposed Trust Fund, enabling it to provide grants to the poorest countries experiencing export shortfalls and allowing some use of the Trust Fund resources to supplement the proposed facility. Secondly, we pledge our support to a major expansion of the International Finance Corporation, permitting that organization to serve as a more effective catalyst for growth of the private sector in developing countries. We agree with Mr. McNamara that the role of the IFC in mobilizing additional private investment is now more important than ever. There can be little doubt that much of the increase in living standards within developing countries must come from increased private sector production of goods and services. Arrangements should be made in the next few months to give the International Finance Corporation better tools to assist the domestic private sector and to make the IFC a full partner in the Bank Group. Moreover, the IFC should play an active part in bringing together foreign and domestic investors. It should act aggressively to arrange financing for mineral production in developing countries where, as an impartial international party, it can help to smooth relationships between international companies with technology and markets and national authorities who understandably wish to strike the best bargain for their countries. The IFC should also develop imaginative financial arrangements, including a new investment trust, so that equity shares in joint ventures can gradually be purchased by private individuals and firms in developing countries. All of these activities will complement the ongoing work of the World Bank, which must continue to assist in financing related infrastructure such as ports and roads and will, we expect, give higher priority to the most important aspect of identifying obstacles to private savings and domestic private investment in developing countries. Thirdly, the United States once again urges that agreement be promptly reached on the establishment of a Trust Fund managed by the IMF in order to provide highly concessional balance of payments financing for the poorest developing countries. Nearly a year has passed since my government first proposed the Trust Fund and urged that a portion of the IMF gold be sold to help finance this worthy cause. We are pleased that there has been increasing recognition that the Trust Fund concept represents the most effective means of providing fast-disbursing financial support. This is one way we can move ahead immediately to respond to the severe financing needs faced by the developing countries; we can agree now to see a portion of IMF gold used without waiting for time-consuming amendments of the Articles. Even as we have delayed in establishing this fund, the need for it has grown. Let us resolve to act promptly. - 7 In addition to these major initiatives, other steps should be taken so that the Bank and the Fund can more adequately meet today's needs. As the oil facility of the IMF phases out this year, we should take action to assure the immediate useability of all currencies held by the IMF. We also need to direct early attention to a review of the tranche policies of the Fund and to consider whether changes should be introduced in these policies in order to provide increased access to the Fund's regular drawing facilities. This would enable the Fund to play the expanded and more active role required of it in today's world. The World Bank is by far the largest and most influential development lending institution and as such has a major role to play in assisting developing nations achieve their development goals. It is of the greatest importance that the quality of this work and the soundness of its financial position be sustained. Since the lending program now being implemented by the Bank carries with it demanding assumptions about the Bank's long term ability to borrow funds, it is important that the management and executive directors of the Bank work together to assess carefully the role the Bank should play in the development process in the next decade and to examine the implications of this for the capital of the Bank and the nature of its programs. With capital an increasingly scarce resource, critical for the growth of the developed as well as the developing countries, it is essential that we have a clear understanding of the priorities which should govern the lending of an institution whose borrowing now approaches $5 billion per year. The U.S. will continue to provide strong support to the Bank, and we will assist in helping it maintain a sound financial position. As I said last year, we support a substantial increase in World Bank share ownership and voting power for countries newly able to make a major contribution to development through the Bank Group. Such an increase should be determined country-by-country and increases in capital should be accompanied by commensurate contributions to the International Development Association to help the poorest countries as well as the middle-level countries. I stress the importance of IDA contributions because of the association's central role in meeting the needs of the poorest and least developed countries. They have the least ability to deal with the impact of economic events on their development and only a combined effort of present members and nations newly able to contribute will enable IDA to assist those countries adequately in the future. Mr. McNamara has announced that negotiations for the next replenishment of IDA will commence in November. A satisfactory agreement on extending IDA's resources will be possible only with the full collaboration of all countries in a position to contribute. Beyond these measures, developed nations must also support the long-standing development efforts such as the regional development banks and our bilateral assistance programs. These programs have shown their effectiveness over the years and deserve to be strongly supported. It is also important for all countries to open their capital markets to the borrowing of the Bank and of the developing countries themselves. In setting forth these proposals today and reviewing the activities of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, I would be less than candid if I did not add that in and of themselves, the measures I have outlined will not be sufficient to ensure economic development. We must not mislead ourselves on this matter. Far more important to the developing nations than the financial assistance that industrialized countries may provide to them is the restoration of stable, non-inflationary growth around the world. And, in the long run, the policies and efforts of the developing countries themselves will be the most decisive. History has shown that no matter how generous others may be, those who have been helped the most are those who have helped themselves. While the developed nations must provide financing and open up their markets, the effectiveness of such assistance depends heavily upon the ability of the developing countries themselves to assure the best use of all resources, domestic as well as foreign. Development assistance should be thought of not as an international welfare program to redistribute the world's wealth but as an important element of an international investment program to increase the rate of economic growth in developing nations and to provide higher living standards for people of ^4^ nation. The effectiveness of international investment, private and public, depends fundamentally on the policies and efforts of each developing country. I am particularly struck by the impressive economic and social progress made by countries which participate fully in the world market, which rely on market forces to provide incentives for efficient use of resources, and which maintain a favorable climate for foreign and domestic private investment. In short, the process of economic development requires the cooperation and full efforts of each of us in pursuing economic policies to maximize production, income and trade for all countries. International Monetary Arrangements Let me turn now to a discussion of international monetary issues. We have achieved a significant breakthrough in our meetings this week in resolving many of the most difficult international monetary -9- *^A? issues before us and in paving the way for a final comprehensive agreement in January. The technically complex -- and politically sensitive -question of arranging a major quota increase and allocating national shares is substantially resolved. We have also succeeded in settling the thorny issues involved in phasing gold out of the international monetary system. Both of these agreements required concessions by many, but the result provides concrete evidence of the continuing spirit of cooperation and good will on which these institutions are founded. Once again we have demonstrated that through patient negotiation it is possible to arrive at an accommodation of conflicting views which is acceptable to each of us and beneficial to all of us. Let us now proceed to the final component of our negotiations -- an agreement on amendment of the exchange rate provisions of the Articles -which will enable us to put into practice the accords reached here this week. Amended provisions are needed which give legal recognition to the realities of today's world and reflect the evolution of the system that has occurred in recent years. Two and a half years ago the par value system gave way to a voluntary system of exchange rate practices under which some countries float independently, some float jointly and some use pegged rates. We are fortunate that this system was actually in place before the oil crisis hit, and its flexibility has served us well in difficult circumstances. 1 .Let those who see stability in par values review again the chaos and disorder of the closing years of the Bretton Woods system. Think back to those days of market closures which disrupted trade and commerce. Recall that the only sure winners were the speculators, who could be assured that with time and persistence they would inevitably carry the day. Remember, too, the hurried international conferences to try to patch together some solution so that markets might open again. Think back to the duration and difficulty of the Smithsonian negotiations and the tensions associated with those negotiations. Those were the days when our political cohesion was threatened by monetary difficulties. The basic logic of the par value system implies a world which does not now exist -- one in which prices are reasonably stable, and in which current account balances adjust to capital flows that are relatively slow to change. But the world has changed and we need a system that is adaptable and is appropriate for the world as it is today, not as it once was or as we might like it to be. Today we have a system which is flexible and resilient. It has enabled exchange markets to remain open and viable in the face of pressures that would have previously been overwhelming. Even the massive accumulations by the OPEC countries and occasional significant fluctuations in particular exchange rates have not unsettled the system. It has been - 10 possible to relax or eliminate many of the extensive restrictions on capital movements and to find viable alternatives to restrictive current account measures. The large payments deficits of today have provoked fewer import restrictions by major countries than did the comparatively minor payments difficulties of earlier years. Although rates of inflation have varied enormously, from 6 percent in some countries to 25 percent in others, the flexibility of our system has allowed exchange rates to move so as to reflect these divergences in costs and prices. Attempts to maintain fixed exchange rates under these circumstances would have quickly and inevitably collapsed under the strain. Some contend that the abandonment of par values is one of the causes of the tidal wave of inflation which has swept the world and that the voluntary system fails to provide the discipline needed to induce countries to restrain their inflation. I cannot agree. It was inflation which made floating necessary. Of course, floating does not prevent home-grown inflation or protect a country from drastic real changes from abroad such as the sudden jump in oil prices. It can, however, shield a country from imported inflation that results from overly expansive fiscal and monetary policies abroad. As for floating as an instrument of discipline, I believe that when a depreciating exchange rate in a free market directly increases the costs of imported goods, that has more meaning to the general public and political leaders than the level of central bank reserves or official borrowing. U.S. policy is to have our own exchange rate determined essentially by market forces, and not by arbitrary official actions. We do not propose to object if foreign countries elect to establish fixed exchange rates among themselves -- the essence of a voluntary system is to permit a free choice -- so long as our own desire for essential freedom of the dollar exchange rate is respected. We are prepared to intervene whenever necessary to maintain orderly exchange market conditions. However, sizeable movements in exchange rates over a period of several months are not necessarily indicators of disorderly markets -- and the fact that such movements are sometimes reversed does not demonstrate that it would have been possible for governments to prevent the initial movement in rates, nor desirable to try. When the pressures of inflation subside and economies recover, when periods of calm between unexpected shocks become longer, then the behavior of exchange rates will become more stable. The greater exchange stability we all would like to see can only be achieved through sound economic policies which result in greater domestic stability in all of our economies. - 11 - <£// We believe strongly that countries must be free to choose their own exchange rate system and that all countries, whatever choice they make, must be subject to the same agreed-upon principles of international behavior. The right to float must be clear and unencumbered. In view of the great diversity in political systems, institutional arrangements, size of national economies, and degree of dependence on foreign trade and investment, our present world requires an open mind about the future. I do not pretend to have the wisdom or the clairvoyance to predict the precise exchange arrangements the world may desire or require far in the future. Experience with the present Articles provides clear evidence of the difficulty of specifying in rigid detail an exchange rate system that can be expected to last forever. We must deal with the world as it is today, and that now requires a system that can easily adapt to rapid change. I know this can be done. Our agreements this week on gold and quotas show that we can find answers to difficult problems -- and that a mutually acceptable accommodation on exchange rates can be achieved. The United States will approach the search for a resolution of this problem with imagination and an appreciation of others' views. We know that others will do the same. Conclusion Ladies and Gentlemen, it is apparent that the agenda for the future is formidable: -- To achieve lasting, non-inflationary growth; --To reach an accommodation on energy; --To encourage economic development; and, -- To maintain a monetary system adapted to today's needs. Each of these demands our full attention. The agreements we have reached this week demonstrate that through cooperation and perseverance, we can succeed. It is in that spirit that we must continue to move forward. I pledge to you that the United States will remain a reliable partner in this journey. Thank you. 0O0 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS UNITED STATES SENATE REGARDING LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION'S FOREIGN SALES ACTIVITIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON THE EMERGENCY LOAN GUARANTEE PROGRAM AUGUST 25, 1975, 10:00 A.M. Mr. Chairman, my testimony concerns the Emergency Loan Guarantee program, and in particular the recent disclosures of secret payments made by Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, the sole borrower under the program, to officials of foreign governments. Let there be no misunderstanding: the Emergency Loan Guarantee Board does not, and will not, condone illegal or unethical activities by American business, here or abroad. The Board condemns such actions in the strongest terms and is deeply concerned about the possible improper use of Lockheed's corporate funds and its impact on the guarantee program. We are disturbed that Lockheed's apparent long-standing practice of resorting to bribery to sell its products in foreign markets has escaped detection by the Board, and others monitoring the company's activities. We are distressed that Lockheed's management has apparently not been forthright with the Board and with Congress. As a Government official who has spoken out about the importance of maintaining the free enterprise system, I find Lockheed's actions deplorable. Lockheed's executives in making WS-376 application for a Government benefit — a guarantee of some of their borrowings — have not disclosed what may prove to be material information to the Administration and the Congress. We recognize that very serious consequences are involved for Lockheed, for the aerospace industry, and for the loan guarantee program. Before providing the Committee with an overview of the problem, let me summarize briefly the steps the Board is taking: The Board has requested by letter that Lockheed: (1) confirm its oral understanding with the Board that it is to provide all material information concerning the bribes; (2) will request its auditor to furnish separately to the Board additional information regarding the transactions; and (3) furnish any additional information regarding the payments that the Board may deem necessary. The Board has notified Lockheed that the Guarantee Agreement does not provide for any waiver of the Board's rights or remedies unless expressly waived in a writing signed by the Board. In addition, the acceptance of any certificates, representations, or other documents required to be furnished by Lockheed, under the Agreement, should not be deemed to constitute a waiver of any of the Board's rights. - 3 — As part of the Fiscal Agent's ongoing monitoring activities, the Board has requested that it prepare a current assessment of the Government's collateral under the Credit Agreement. — The Board has asked the Fiscal Agent to carefully consider the Expenditure Plans, which Lockheed furnished to the Board in connection with each drawdown of guarantee funds, to determine whether the Expenditure Plans should be regarded as false or incomplete in that no information regarding the bribes was provided. The Board's staff has questioned past officials associated with the Guarantee program. None can recall any information coming to his attention which indicated that Lockheed was paying bribes to foreign officials. The Board has requested that Lockheed's Agent Banks review the information in their possession to advise whether it indicates that Lockheed has been paying bribes. — The Board's staff is in the process of undertaking a complete review of its files, and has asked its Fiscal Agent to do the same, in order to confirm that the Board had no information about Lockheed's payments of bribes until June of this year. - 4 — The Board has requested that the General Accounting Office, which is required to audit any borrowers under the Emergency Loan Guarantee program and to report its findings to the Board, search its files to determine whether or not they contain any information regarding the payment of bribes by Lockheed. The Board's staff met with the GAO staff on August 19 for the purpose of creating a cooperative program whereby the Board may obtain whatever additional information it deems necessary to assess its position under the Guarantee Act and the Agreements. Lockheed's Disclosure Let me turn now to a discussion of how the Board learned of the Lockheed bribes. The Board did not become aware that Lockheed had paid bribes to foreign officials until early June of this year. This information was first transmitted orally to the Board's staff by Lockheed's financial officers. They advised that while proxy materials had been cleared by the Securities and Exchange Commission staff in connection with the company's scheduled annual meeting on July 18, 1975, Lockheed was unable to mail these materials to its shareholders. This was because Lockheed's independent auditor, Arthur Young and Company, would not certify Lockheed's _ 5 financial statements, unless the company acknowledged that bribes had been paid to foreign officials and that the extent of such payments-was defined. The Board's staff was told that the company's financial officers and its independent auditor were reviewing foreign sales practices and that the Board would be kept advised. The Board was aware that Lockheed paid sales commissions to foreign consultants. This practice was not cause for alarm in that it is a usual way of doing business. Of course,, the Board recognizes the difference between legitimate and appropriate finders' fees and commissions to sales consultants and bribes paid to governmental officials, either directly or through commissioned agents. As a result of its initial inquiries, the Board's staff was left with an impression that there were isolated instances of bribes and that the amounts involved, while large, were not significant when viewed in comparison with those reported to have been made by other corporations. An allegation which has appeared in the press on June 6 by the Northrop Corporation that it had modeled a Swiss subsidiary utilized to facilitate payments to its agents after one established by Lockheed had triggered Arthur Young and Company's inquiry. Discussions between the Board's staff and Lockheed officials about these developments included the procedures Lockheed was following in its review of foreign bribes and the time period to be covered. The staff began to become concerned that the dollar amount of payments made by Lockheed was substantial and that bribery might have been in issue in more than a few isolated instances. Additionally, Lockheed advised that it had made political contributions of approximately $25,000 in one country, but that such contributions were legal under local lawOn June 16, the Board's staff met with the Arthur Young and Company partner in charge of the firm's audit of Lockheed to discuss what Arthur Young was doing in connection with its review of the Lockheed bribes and the company's foreign sales activities generally. This meeting reinforced the staff's concern as to the magnitude of payments made. On June 17 the Board's staff and a representative of its Fiscal Agent, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, met with Lockheed's Senior Vice President for Finance at Lockheed's headquarters to discuss matters further with him. The Lockheed official indicated that he and Arthur Young were making a thorough review of the transactions in issue - 7- J/? with a view towards reporting their findings to Lockheed's Board of Directors on June 23. He also stated that the Guarantee Board's staff.would be provided with all relevant information relating to payments by Lockheed to foreign officials. The staff recalls that it was at this meeting that it became aware of a letter, dated April 29, 1975, to Lockheed from the Securities and Exchange Commission staff requesting that the company respond to certain general questions regarding payments it may have made to officials of foreign governments. Initial Response by the Board Once it had learned of the SEC's inquiry, the Board's staff was kept advised by Lockheed on the status of this inquiry. The staff has also received information about an inquiry into Lockheed's activities by the Senate Subcommittee on Multinational Corporations. Further, Lockheed has furnished the Board with its submissions to the SEC describing a number of transactions known or suspected by the company to have involved payments to foreign officials. Copies of these submissions were furnished to the Chairman of this Committee by the Board on August 15, 1975. The Board's staff visited Lockheed's corporate headquarters again on July 21 and 22 to review the most current information about the bribery inquiry and to evaluate Lockheed's operating progress on its L-1011 program. Lockheed permitted the staff to review Arthur Young's report to Lockheed's Board of Directors, which described payments made to foreign officals and the establishment of a slush fund. The report substantiated the information contained in Lockheed's submissions to the SEC. The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board staff was informed by Lockheed officials that some bribes involved efforts to market the L-1011 aircraft. At various times in mid- and late July, the Board's Executive Director, Edward C. Schmults, talked with each of the three Members of the Board to alert them of the magnitude of the problem. He also advised the Board Members that the staff was in the process of reviewing the Emergency Loan Guarantee Act and the Agreements between Lockheed and the ELGB to assess whether any violations or defaults have occurred by reason of Lockheed's foreign payments and what legal courses of action were available to the Board. As this review developed in late July and early August, it became apparent that additional information was needed in order to determine whether the Guarantee Act or the provisions of Lockheed's agreements with the ELGB had been violated. Additional issues also had to be considered. These included the purposes underlying the Emergency Loan Guarantee Act, the Board's responsibilities under the Act, general U.S. policy with regard to bribery of foreign - 9~ 929c: officials by U.S. corporations, and, finally, what actions the Board ought to pursue in response to these considerations. These considerations present difficult questions for the Board to resolve. Among issues to be addressed are: 1. How can the Board distinguish between proper commissions to sales consultants and instances where consultants use a portion of their fees to bribe foreign governmental officials? 2. With the purpose of the Guarantee program being the preservation of Lockheed's viability, should the Board take action which (a) might put the company at a competitive disadvantage with respect to both other U.S. corporations and foreign competitors, or (b) might cause Lockheed to fail, especially where rules have yet to be prescribed? 3. Would Board action have broad application affecting the ability of U.S. corporations to compete in certain parts of the world, given local business practices and customs? In fact, the Board met earlier today in order to continue its attempts to resolve these difficult questions. Parenthetically, the Board reviewed a routine rollover of $30 million of guaranteed notes due today. The Board's Monitoring Functions I think it would be useful at this point to explain the procedure which the Board has followed to keep apprised of developments regarding Lockheed. In passing on the Emergency Loan Guarantee program, Congress had, as one of its primary purposes, a desire to avoid creating another bureaucracy. For this reason, among others, Congress directed the General Accounting Office to audit any borrower under the program and to report the results of its audits to the Board and to the Congress. In this connection, I want to acknowledge the controversy that took place in 1972 with regard to the GAO's role. Treasury General Counsel Pierce contended that the GAO did not have the statutory authority to review Board internal records relating to its own decision making. In any event, and in response to the position taken by Senator Proxmire and then Chairman Sparkman of this Committee, the Board has provided the GAO with every record in its files that has been requested. I want to point out that there was no question ever raised that the GAO could not inquire fully into Lockheed's own affairs. In fact, the Board demanded a provision in the Guarantee Agreement whereby Lockheed is required to provide the GAO full access to its records. The Board is supported by a very small staff and by its Fiscal Agent, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which utilized officers and employees of its Credit and Discount Department. The largest the Board's staff has been was three full-time employees in- the spring of 1973. The staff's efforts are supplemented on a when-needed basis by personnel from the Board Members' respective agencies. At the present time, the staff is comprised of an Executive Director, Edward C. Schmults, who also is the Under Secretary of the Treasury, and a full-time Secretary, Alan Vinick. A technical consultant and an attorney, assigned from Treasury, also work for the Board on a part-time basis.' The Board's staff and the Fiscal Agent have continuously monitored Lockheed's operations, particularly since the company experienced results in early 1972 which fell far short of expectations. Monitoring activities have included review of various Lockheed financial and production data, and regular meetings with Lockheed officials, with Lockheed's independent auditor (Arthur Young and Company), with customer airlines, and with lending banks. The Board's staff has made frequent trips to Lockheed's facilities to review various programs in order to better assess the financial statements provided by the company. In the last two and a half years, the staff has spent approximately 158 days reviewing Lockheed's operations at the company's facilities. This figure excludes numerous visits by the Fiscal Agent's representatives to Lockheed's facilities. p3 Others have also been actively involved in reviewing Lockheed's circumstances. The Agent Banks advised us that, based on a preliminary review of the information in their files, their monitoring activities found no indication of any bribes. Further, Arthur Young and Company, Lockheed's independent auditor, which employs in excess of 200 people, or 25,000 hours, to perform Lockheed's yearly audit, has orally advised us that until early June 1975 they too were unaware of the fact that Lockheed had paid bribes. The point that I want to make is that if a system of making payoffs is well contrived, monitoring a multi-billion-dollar corporation's activities in a diligent fashion will usually not uncover such practices. Additionally, the Board has never sought in its monitoring of Lockheed the task of verifying all of the company's cash receipts and expenditures, but rather has relied upon such information being furnished to it in the form of consolidated financial statements or program financial statements by the company's financial officers, its independent public auditors, and the General Accounting Office. The Board's role in monitoring Lockheed has been through a credit analysis approach which relies upon internal and independent auditors, the normal practice employed by commercial lenders. - 13 Extension of the Guarantee As you are aware, the Guarantee Board recently approved a proposed refinancing plan for Lockheed which extended the Government's guarantee for two years through December 31, 1977. I think it should be made clear that when the Board met on May 17, 1975, to reach this decision, it had no knowledge of Lockheed's payments to foreign officials. At its May meeting the Board reviewed Lockheed's draft financial statements for the year ended December 29, 1974. The Board's staff was advised by Lockheed that these statements were in the form as to which Arthur Young and Company was prepared to issue its audit certification subject only to completion of Lockheed's pending refinancing plan. In fact, at the time the formal agreements were executed, on May 20, the Board was furnished with certified financial statements signed by Arthur Young and Company, which, except for minor modifications, were identical to those supplied to the Board for its May 17 meeting. The Board's staff and Fiscal Agent also reviewed the five-year financial forecast completed by Lockheed in April of this year. This financial forecast completed by Lockheed in April of this year. This financial forecast was discussed thoroughly at the Board's meeting. No reference was made in the forecast about the payment of the bribes by Lockheed to procure foreign business. <J99 - 14 In addition, Lockheed's Chairman and its Senior Vice President for Finance appeared before the Board on May 17, 1975, to discuss the risks associated with the company's business and to review the refinancing plan. Again, no mention was made of the company's payments to foreign officials. I emphasize that this was at the time that Lockheed had in its possession a letter from the SEC's staff' asking for information about bribes paid by the company. It was also during this time that Senator Church's Subcommittee on Multinational Corporations was holding hearings on foreign bribes paid by U.S. corporations. Because of allegations that had appeared in the press about other corporations, the Board's staff, in the process of briefing itself and the Board, asked Lockheed whether it had "laundered" funds through overseas subsidiaries for the purpose of making political contributions in this country. Lockheed's response to this question was that no such activity had occurred. In retrospect, it would have been advantageous to inquire as to whether Lockheed had made any payments to foreign officials. That question was not, however, considered at the time. - 15 Concluding Remarks From Lockheed's public statements, as well as from information which we received from Lockheed, it is clear that bribes had been paid prior to the Guarantee program. I want the record to reflect that all of the Members of the Guarantee Board are not only deeply concerned by Lockheed's failure to have advised us of these practices, but are distressed that the Government has been involved, even indirectly, in the L-1011 program if, as intimated by Lockheed, that program is partially dependent upon bribes for its success. Whether laws of the United States have been violated is to be determined following the reviews underway by the various Congressional committees and the agencies investigating these questions. A broader policy, however, is at stake here. The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board has been put in the position of seeking to protect the Government's interest as guarantor for creditors of Lockheed. In so doing, it finds itself working with a company that alleges that foreign payments of this nature are a normal and necessary method of doing business abroad in the highly competitive aerospace market. While the Board does not believe it is the appropriate agency to develop rules or standards of general applicability, it is formulating its own assessment of what has transpired in order to determine an appropriate course of action under the Guarantee Act. This assessment will include a balance of competing interests between the public' right to know and the alleged potential adverse impact of detailed disclosure on Lockheed's outstanding orders. Congr likewise, has a responsibility to determine what actions it should take in connection with the Government guarantee of loans to Lockheed. When the Board has completed its review it will then be in a position to recommend whether a change in the Guarantee legislation is desirable. Mr. Chairman, let me repeat what the Board is doing. In accordance with our responsibilities under the Act, we have sought all pertinent information from Lockheed, and others, so that we can address the underlying issues thoroughly and intelligently. We are hesitant to prejudice our position by presupposing what our response will be until we are sure of the facts, are informed of the conclusions of the SEC investigation, and have evaluated our own responsibilities under the Act. At that time, the Board will take whatever actions it concludes are warranted in response to Lockheed's misconduct. Mr. Chariman, a crucial challenge facing us today is the preservation of the free enterprise system. Practices such as bribes made to secure foreign business can only increase the distrust and suspicion that is straining our national institutions. To argue that bribes to foreign - 17 officials are necessary for effective competition is contrary to every principle under the free market system. The Emergency Loan Guarantee Board wants to go on record as condemning these practices. SECRETARY SIMONs Good morning, l&dias and gentlemen, I would like to get going, I know John Turner and Dennis Healey have a press conference,and you may wish to attend those as well. I feel this session is a little anti-climatic, my being with you, ladies and gentlemen, to explain what arrangements have been arrived at in the International Monetary Fund meetings, because of the agreements that were made over the weekend and the visits that I have had with the press subsequently. As 1 said at that time, we have made great progress and had a significant breakthrough on soma of the controversial issues, gold and quotas, and we remain in the negotiation in order to arrive at a final agreement on this package of International Monetary reform, which I expect we will be able to arrive at in January, after a hopefully satisfactory conclusion of the exchange rate arrangements and the adoption of the amendment that would address itself to that question* Now, having said that, I would like to open this session up for Q's and A?s, recognizing that we don't have much time. QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, the South Africans and other people who really like gold are jumping up and down saying the interim committee agreement is good for gold, - la* that it just might freeze gold out of one monetary system % % and go out into another since it w i l l give central banks || the time to sell some dollars for gold — in exchange, it will give central banks the chance to sell some dollars for IMF gold and get more gold, and will give them the chance to exchange among themselves* The question I have is if this is so, why did the United States agree to the gold accord, and 1 if it is not so, why did the United States decline to unbundle the gold issue and make it contingent on the implementation of the gold issue? SECRETARY SIMON. We believe we need a comprehensive 11 agreement on the international monetary reform arrangements which include the exchange rate issue. We have a clear n mandate from our Congress that if we do not direct ourselves to the exchange rate issue, allowing the freedom we desire in these arrangements, that they would not act upon any amendifents relating to gold or to quotas, and this is very clear. 17 I do not subscribe to the notion that I have heard I in the past day that this is in danger of moving gold back in the center of the system* We believe we have agreed to adequate safeguards for the gradual phasing of gold out of the system. The abolition of the official price^ the safeguards the central bankers will adopt on trading among each other, and, of course, &3 the most important part, the aboliton of the official settlements of gold and in the International Monetary Fund, and the p< li elimination of the IMF's ability to purchase gold, except f S ii I! under extraordinary circumstances which will require an 85 j t I I 5 'lit per cent vote. The United States, from time to time, as you well know, will continue to sell gold on the marketplace, as I assume so will others. As I say, with these arrangements we have agreed to, or we will agree to, but also we have all agreed at the beginning to commence the phase out of gold as the center of the monetary system so it can be treated like any [ other commodity*. .0 As I say, when I say phase out, this does not mean selling the gold precipitously and doing it in any specified period of time. We must look at the markets. We donct want to create disorderly markets. This will be done over a long period of time. QUESTION. Sir, suppose the price of gold drops whan the /Mbnetary Fund sells it in the market. Would in such circumstance the American Treasury completely rule out the possibility of buying some of that gold in order to sustain the receipts of the so-called Trust Fund? SECRETARY SIMON: We never rule out any possibility. 2! we judge a market on what is happening, the market at that time, and make our decisions relative to that. That goes i\ as far as our yelling is concerned. I would expect the -.- i} ! United States would refrain from selling its own stocks when I 4 ^3-^ gold w a s being disposed of by the INternational Monetary Fund. | I would not rule anything out in this regard. i What I am saying is w h a t w e are trying to do in an orderly fashion is phase gold out o f the international system, at the same time while not disrupting markets. 5 Now the important aspect of this, there is n o price fixing. Indeed, one of the arrangements made over the weekend is that no actions would be taken by any governments to peg the prices o f gold. If w e are going to phase out gold, the only way it can be done is to do it in an orderly fashion. QUESTION: You w e r e saying Sunday night the one-sixth j 11 sale could go ahead immediately without waiting for the 12 meeting in Jamaica. £s that still y o u r position? SECRETARY SIMON: it could happen. I am told legally that is correct, Whether it will or not remains to be seen. QUESTION. What will b e done legally? \ j i SECRETARY SIMON: It can for the benefit of the j developing countries; gold can b e sold without any amendments ! to the articles. 19 QUESTION: { I M r . Secretary, my name is Evelyn Y. Davis, j I am editor of Highlights and Lowlights of Annual Meetings ; i i from New York City. I am known as the nation's leading j 22 minority stockholder. I am also a city of New York bondholder. j n in the last few w e e k s , naturally, myself and thousands of other • bondholders have been concerned about the situation in New York. 1 viz. i{ W h a t a d v i c e d o y o u h a v e to g i v e u s ? il | SECRETARY SIMON: Let me say, Miss Davis, I am also 1 concerned about New York City and hopeful the necessary li actions are going to be taken by the State and the City that J are going to prevent a default of New York City obligations, ] m jj which I consider to be a very bad idea, to put it mildly. . i Now, as to advice, I don't think it is really the function of the chief financial officer to give advice to bondholders. All X can say is I am sure if these actions were taken by New York City, by New York State, the necessary *.® i actions, they ara going to restore the financial credibility i to this city. It will again regain access to the capital markets, the bondholders can rest assured their coupons will be u paid on time as they have always been in the past. But this is what must be done. They must place a credible program before the investors in this country, you 3& and thousands of other investors that own them. New York City obligations, and convince them of their fiscal integrity. QUESTION^ Is there anything to what the City SJ Corporation Counsel was talking about, the employees of th* city will get paid before the bondholders, which is a direct ! violation of the Constitution of the bonds which says the 12 jj ', bondholders have first daim to the full access of the city — til : ii I i SECRETARY SIMON: T h a t xs my u n d e r s t a n d i n g , b o n d h o l d e r s d o h a v e t h e first p o s i t i o n . the 6 QUESTION: & u Does the Treasury know anything about I J this? I SECRETARY SIMON: The Treasury has no legal ability to do anything about it* I would assume there would be j f bondholders' suits if indeed the funds were attempted to be diverted to other than constitutional uses. QUESTION: years — The taxes I have been paying over the you are welcome to look at my tax returns. I don't believe the city is broke at ail. v SECRETARY SIMON: QUESTION: Thank you, Miss Davis. A Paris communique mentioned the possibility to work with the gold substitution account. that around here today. We haven't heard Is that going forward or will it provide a means for a study of the gold? SECRETARY SIMON: They will continue to study the 1 i substitution of the hold, the substitution account, as we decided at the June Interim Committee meeting. I don't wish to ] I pre-judge the outcome of the study, and how it would affect, but j s I see no way it would conflict with the arrangements that we J have agreed to over the weekend. i QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, do the agreements reached have any significance or importance in terms of this nation's economic problems of recessbn and inflation, and if so, would you address yourself to those? SECRETARY SIMON: I would not say they have any direct bearing on the present p r o b l e m s , the economic problems ! 'I || of any o f the countries of the w o r l d . Certainly a smooth 2 ii j functioning international monetary system is important to all of the world's economies. I think there also is a psychological and confidence factor involved. We have been negotiating these very difficult areas for almost four years now. I have felt, on the confidence factor, that the people around the world might begin to question the ability o f j governments in general and finance ministers in particular to i arrive at and make the necessary concessions, difficult ; i it compromises, political decisions, as well as financial and ! economic decisions necessary to arrive at a package that I represents the compromises for all* that w i l l be beneficial n for everyone. 14 A s far as the immediate recession and inflation, none of these arrangements w i l l directly affect that, except to ameliorate the effects of deepening the recession on S7 the most serious affected nations in some areas. QUESTION: M r . Secretary, did I understand you to say || the Treasury wouldnot sell gold while the IMF is selling its gold? SECRETARY SIMON: U I said it depends, Bart, completely on <what is going on in the marketplace and what the demand 23 I factors are in the marketplace at that time. I could envisage, if the IMF were in the process of disposing of a certain amount P ft i! • ' of its gold in the marketplace, the Treasury would refrain at 0 that time from disposing of its own gold. Just to maintain, 3 I said, orderly markets. as QUESTION: Inasmuch as the IMF process might take two or thr^e years, we haven't been told how long, does that # mean the Treasury might conceivably be out of tie market for that length of time? SECRETARY SIMON: No, it doesn't, because it is 9 unclear yet. This will unfold over the coming months, exactly 10 the IMF would dispose of the gold, whether initially how it 1! will sell gold to the central banks around the world. That 12 part of the global limit, you know, that has been set on is 13 holdings, which is one of the safeguards we have gold negotiated. QUESTION: Mr. Simon, Dr. Wittftveen specifically named the United States as one of the three strong countries which would afford to do something to get trade moving — the other two have told us they think they have done enough. Jr. Witteveen has also cited fiscal methods which would appear to take the problem away from Mr. Burns and put it towards you. What is your response in view of the size of the deficit? SECRETARY SIMON: My response in view of the size 12 of the deficit in this country is predictable. We believe we have taken adequate measure to protect our economy in ;$ Jj coopar^afririn unrh^Arthur Burns, the Federal Reserve Board, & j their expansionary economic policies so far this year* We have a deficit of §60 billion, but it is still unclear, and Congressional actions and inactions w i l l determine what that deficit w i l l b e . We have presented a mid-session review of the budget about a month a g o . Jim Lynn, and I, and it illustrates very eloquently the size o f our deficits, n o t only this y e a r but in the fiscal y e a r 1977 and beyond. have not done enough. QUESTION: ii *$y concern is not that we My concern is have w e done too much. M r . Secretary, y o u are against fixed exchange rates and y o u are against gold in the monetary system. What foundation do y o u expect ~ SECRETARY SIMON: I believe, to that issue. discipline — (inaudible) In my speech today, I direct myself, You know, it is not William Simon who is opposed to gold in the central system. This was a general agreement among the Finance Ministers of the world over the past four y e a r s . They have agreed to phase out this commodity from the center of the system, recognizing the world today we live in versus the world when that system was designed. What is the foundation of a stable currency? A sound, durable, non-inflationary economy at home is what 22 the basic foundation of a sound currency i s , and I think that is illustrated in the recent strengthening of our dollar in the world markets as a result of our being able to begin to win — I sav begin, w® won a battle, n o t the war -- our 10 battle against inflation. QUESTION: M r . Secretary, are you comfortable with the statements made yesterday on Secretary Kissinger's behalf concerning attempts to negotiate monetary agreements intended to stabilize prices of those commodities in international markets? SECRETARY SIMON: Yes, I am. Just a word of background on that, because lots is often written about economic policy of the State Department, and the Treasury Department. Let's understand one thing. I saw by the New York 10 11 12 13 Times this morning, Leonard Silk treated this in a very even-handed factual manner* foreign policy and economic policy have different objectives and they are going to be necessarily Conflicting views If there were not conflicting views, one of us would not be doing our job properly in designing 15 initiatives consistent with our free market principles in the United States, which remain our fundamental principles. We have to resolve these differences and make concessions, never against the free market principles that we adhere to, and we have done this. 20 £1 n Henry and I worked very closely in developing these initiatives, and the State Department and we agree that the tin agreement and the other agreements we are studying on a case by case basis, we believe this tin agreement does not interfere with our free market forces nor is it joining a } 11 cartel. •I 4 5 A cartel is a group of producer countries that rig the prices o f a commodity. 3 1 as 1S9 This agreement includes consumers well as p r o d u c e r s , w i t h a buffer stock arrangement to assure adequate supply during periods of shortage. QUESTION: The IMF did some, but most of the burden « of payments financing has been on the shoulder of the American 7 banking establishment, so with the phasing out of the gold if there is n o SDR in the central system, w i l l n e t the burden be too heavy for the governments DO 11 SECRETARY SIMON: — The SDR is the center of the system. We want to strengthen the SDR. W e are all agreed upon trat. 12 N o w w h a t was the first part of your question? 13 QUESTION: (inaudible) — the question, the financing burden for the American banking system. 15 SECRETARY SIMON: I don't consider the recycling process as a burden on the dollar. 17 If it were a burden on the dollar, the dollar would not b e , in my judgment, increasing in value as it h a s . T h e private financial markets have, as we have maintained for the past year, done a magnificant job, in bearing the burden of most of the recycling. SI Simultaneously, w e have established mechanisms that would smooth out this flow and I look forward to continued smooth markets in the international financial markets. Our Si problem in respect t o the oil price area is n o t the financial problem, it is the economic and p o l i t i c a l . ^ 12 QUESTION: JW Mr. Secretary, if a number of key third party countries have coxae here specifically for the purpose 3 of scraping up immediate short term public or private 4 credit to finance vital food imports, specifically Argentina 5 and Egypt, now the next major step according to a number of e thes& 7 hundred million dollars for imports, then the next step will be 3 a default, a declaration, what is the possibility of avoiding countries is that they cannot scrape up just a few a revolt of the slaves? SECRETARY SIMON: A revolt of the slaves? not agree with that comment at all. I 11 certainly would I think VI tli® United States approach €o the developing countries has been extremely forthcoming, not just in the initiatives that u Henry and I, yesterday and today, have announced but also during the past 25 years, or 30 years since World War II. We selves. continue to wish to help these nations help them- In the final analysis, their prosperity is dependent on how they use their resources and the domestic policies that they promote to achieve the permanent increase in the standards of living for all of their peoples that all of them desire* I don't anticipate a so-called revolt. I think they recognize we, the industrialized world, are sincerely trying to help them. QUESTION: Sir, you said here today you think we 13 £<// * jihava done enough to inflate our economy this year, what 2 I about next year and the tax cut being extended? SECRETARY SIMON: expandionary measures. I would not pre-judge any further If they are needed we will take them. If an extension of the tax reduction is required, as I have said h the past, I would recommend to the President that it be i 7 ] extended, but it is pretty much hard to judge that at this a S&time. With the revised figures on our GNP for the second quarter which show a positive 1.6 per cent real growth. We expect w© are going to h a w significant growth in the third and fourth quarters in 1976. We believe we have had adequate expansion in this country. What we must do now is attempt to manage this recovery so we do not have a resurgence of the inflationary m pressure which is our true long-term enemy. QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, when the Committee of 20 n I met last January, the only topic worth speaking of was the H I so-called Kissinger Safety Net. Nobody speaks about it «9 j now. Do you think it is still useful? •i ^ | SECRETARY SIW3N: Of course it is still useful. 31 I The Financial Support Fund is a needed safety net, a lender of n last resort, that is going through the various legislative i! processes in the countries in the world who have agreed to join this insurance mechanism. I am optimistic we are goint I 23 Jjtolmva early Congressional approval. 1 4 ^ Yes, it aaost certainly is still needed. 2 QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, in regard to a response a minute ago on that third world question, how do you explain what is your response to the criticism contained in the communique by the third world on the arrangements on gold? SECRETARY SIMON: People always want more. Here again, attempting to design agreements and reach complete 100 per cent agreement on every one of these issues is going to be impossible. That is what compromise is. We think this compromise that was worked out is fair. QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, according to the main Treasury bulletin, the United States commercial banks have about $20 billion worth of short-term debt outstanding to third world countries; another $10 to $15 billion of such debt can be calculated to be outstanding to such countries on the Euro-dollar market, almost all of this debt was issues since the oil market and since the 1974 drop in commodity price to finance the huge third world balance of payments, deficits now running $40 billion a year — most commercial bankers note the repayment of such debts is well nigh impossible, at !>t jj least half of this debt is right new being rolled over on tec? $2 j Euro-dollar market and the implication of maintenance of such i t-i j debts is expected to reduce third world imports by a nuii-bsar cf M !• UN experts, by approximately 50 per cent by the end of the year. The two pert question I have on this is first of all, has the Treasury anticipated the effect of this short term third world debt on international trade and secondly, has it anticipated the effect of a moratorium on this debt, most of which is considered by commercial bankers to be well nigh unpayable on the U. S* commercial banking system? SECRETARY SIMON: I don't subscribe to that notion t that it is well nigh unpayable* That is not clear to any i one. It seems we succumb so often, an we ha-sns in the past j \ \ two years, to the Calamity Janes in this world on almost j I any subject without taking any balanced measured judgment of i ! what some of the alternatives are. We have very competant and active bank regulatory mechanisms here in the United j j States, the Comptroller of the Currency and a Federal Reserve i System. I do not anticipate any financial problems as a J ? \ result of what you describe* No, X do not. Now, as far as debt rescheduling, we will approach j rescheduling on a case by case basis. Thus far we have not « seen any evidence of this'problem of the magnitude that j » you describe, j 1 QUESTION: Th« figures mentioned by Secretary \ Moynihan on the trust fund are significantly larger than mentioned by Dr. Wifcteveen. What is the United States seeking j there and what kind of lick have you had in conversations \ H with your colleagues frost overseas? § f | ^>:CRBTARY S1K09: l thiiik since we proposed ths it; I jl trust fund concept a year ago, we have had general agreement 1 I | among the countries of the world on the concept. As far as 4 what the exact aiaomit will turn out to be it depends on the negotiations t&a-j; proceed from here. QUESTION: On the remaining issue of exchange :^3s, which you feel will be resolved by January, would you elaborate a bit on what you consider to be the minimum conditions for settlement of this issue? SECRETARY SIMON: I think there are probably a couple of minimum conditions. One, we have to recognize the n world we are in today, the present ARticles of Agreement state that par values must be maintained, but that is not happening in today's world. There is a view that this living in sin as far as the j present Artciles of Agraeisent must be addressed. We feel, | I and so does our Congress, that the freadosa by any country to \ have floating rates must also be recognized in the new Ltt amendments and we ara going to attempt to agree on words to j tit do this. ] i The Congress has be&n very clear in its attitude on S1 this, relative to its agreement on quotas, gold, end othei suggestions wa send up with that. m » QUESTION: Can you explain in more detail how the i a icommodity financing :Cheav; -- (inaudible) \ 5 17 1 | QUESTION: Would you repeat the question, Mr. Secretary? SECRETARY SIMOH: Explain commodity financing *agreements • We do not have all of the specifics on all of the commodity financing agreements. We do not wish to attempt to impose all of the specifics of our ideas upon the rest | of the world. W& have ideas based around broad concepts in the area of commodities. Let us get together now and work out all of the details of these issues. The specifics will become apparent to all over the next couple of months. •2One more. QUESTION? Mr. Secretary, is it correct to say the American position on the exchange rate indicated tha- you j believe — in your position on exchange rates, is it correct I' \ i to assume that you view currencies as nothing more or less I 17 than commodities, subject to the forces of the marketplace? SECRETARY SIMON: So, I would not go that far. But j I believe currencies certainly are subject to the free force:; If of markets. If one attempts to peg the rate at aa \ ! artificial level, ultimately, as we have seen so often during the *< /. current crises during the last five years of the Bret :on j Woods system, devaluations, and revaluations occur, in | U recognition of whai the market forces are dictating on the jj exchange rate. ! If W& thirik the new flexible system, the voluntary ll 4 system we have now, recogniz s this fact. Minimal changer* * it f| over short periods of time are less disruptive than the 4 I jj abrupt market closings, ate, that we had in the five years if 3 ji that preceded th-n end of the Bretton Woods agreement. 3 h Again, I discuss this in my speech* Copies are W 7 | available in the rear of the room, embargoed for 11 o'clock. it f? U -• .v\-..UUK 5* ' OiA *~ (Whereupon, at 8:40 a.m., the press c o n i r e ^ c was concluded.) + + + 5I " i tti 1 ' <Jt FOR. RELEASE AT 9:00 A.M., EDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 1975 MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESS Attached for your information is a discussion draft of proposed amendments to the income tax regulations respecting the taxability of fringe benefits, which the Treasury Department sent to the Federal Register September 2, 1975. These amendments are being released as a discussion draft rather than as a formal notice of proposed amendments in order to provide an opportunity for review and comment by all interested parties, including the tax writing committees of Congress. An explanation of the considerations underlying the precedents and the proposed rules is also attached in the hope that it will assist in focusing public discussion. September 2, 1975 J"? DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE [26 CFR PART I] INCOME TAX Fringe Benefits; Notice of Publication of Discussion Draft of Regulations Notice is hereby given that the Department of the Treasury is currently considering proposed amended regulations prescribing standards for determining whether incidental facilities, goods and services benefiting employees, commonly referred to as fringe benefits, result in compensation includible in gross income. The proposed regulations are set forth below in discussion draft form. The Internal Revenue Code does not provide specific rules for determining which economic benefits provided to employees by their employers are required to be included in gross income. Administrative practice over the years has permitted certain items to be excluded from the employees' income. The need to provide guidance for all taxpayers has been apparent for some time. Before publishing a notice of proposed rulemaking, the Department of the Treasury is publishing the attached discussion draft to provide an opportunity for review and comment by all interested parties, including the tax writing committees of Congress. Consideration will be given to any comments or suggestions with respect to the provisions contained in the discussion draft. Such comments or suggestions should be submitted in writing (preferably in duplicate) to ^ - 2 - the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Tax Policy, Washington, D.C, 20220, with copies (preferably four) sent to the Commissioner of Internal Revenue, Attention: CC:LR:T, Washington, D C. 20224, within the period of 60 days from the date of publication of this notice in the Federal Register. Designations of material as confidential or not to be disclosed, contained in such comments, will not be accepted. Thus, a person submitting written comments should not include therein material that he considers to be confidential or inappropriate for disclosure to the public. It will be presumed that every written comment submitted in response to this notice is intended by the person submitting it to be subject in its entirety to public inspection and copying in accordance with the same procedures as are prescribed in 26 CFR 601.702(d)(9) for public inspection and copying of written comments received in response to a notice of proposed rulemaking. Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy APPENDIX (DISCUSSION DRAFT OF PROPOSED REGULATIONS) TITLE 26--INTERNAL R E V E N U E CHAPTER I--INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE D E P A R T M E N T OF THE TREASURY SUBCHAPTER A--INCOME TAX [INCOME TAX REGULATIONS] PART I--INCOME TAX; TAXABLE YEARS BEGINNING A F T E R D E C E M B E R 31, 1953 Incidental Facilities, Goods, and Services Benefiting Employees DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, Office of Commissioner of Internal Revenue Washington, D.C. 20024 TO OFFICERS AND EMPLOYEES OF THE INTERNAL. R E V E N U E SERVICE A N D OTHERS CONCERNED: Preamble This document contains proposed amendments to the Income Tax Regulations (26CFR Part 1) prescribing rules to determine whether or not incidental facilities, goods, and services benefiting employ result in compensation includible in gross income. These benefits commonly are referred to as fringe benefits. - 2Some fringe benefits, such as the provision of health insurance by an employer for his employees, are excluded expressly from gross income by statute. The status of most other fringe benefits is not answered expressly by statute. The amendments to the regulations prescribe rules to determine whether or not these fringe benefits constitute compensation includible in gross income. The general rule of the proposed amendments permits an employer to share with its employees benefits arising from its business where the employer incurs no additional cost. To prevent abuse, the general rule does not apply to fringe benefits that are available only to the most highly compensated employees. An example covered by the general rule is the stand-by travel privileges accorded to flight attendants by commercial airlines. Failure of a benefit to qualify under the general rule does not automatically mean that the benefit results in taxable income. In all cases where the requirement of the general rule is not met the fringe benefits must be examined more closely to determine whether or not the benefit derived is taxable as compensation. Under the proposed amendments where the benefit provided by an item is so small as to make accounting for it unreasonable or administratively impractical, there is no taxable compensation. This de minimis exception applies, for example, to an employee having his secretary type a personal letter. X<r3 - 3Where a fringe benefit does not meet all of the tests of the general rule and it is too significant to be ignored under the de minimis exception, whether or not the benefit conferred constitutes compensation includible in gross income is determined on the basis of all the relevan facts and circumstances. The proposed amendments set out nine of the factors to be taken into consideration. Among these factors are: (i) whether or not the employer incurs a substantial and identifiable additi cost, (ii) whether or not the benefit is reimbursement of an unusually large expense of the employee incurred on account of his employment, (iii) whether or not the benefit is provided to employees in a way that does not discriminate in favor of the most highly compensated employees, and (iv) the relationship of the expense to the employers' business. Where a fringe benefit is determined to result in compensation includible in gross income, the amount of compensation is the fair market value of the benefit. This is the amount that the employee would have to pay on an arm's-length basis for the benefit or its equivalent. Among the examples included in the proposed amendments applying the facts and circumstances test is an executive who has a company jet make a special trip to enable him and his wife to shop and attend a play in another city. The executive is held taxable on an amount equal to the cost of chartering an equivalent plane to make the trip. Another - 4example states that an employee does not have gross income where his employer provides him with protection in response to threats made by terrorists alleging that the employer has exploited the terrorists' country. A number of examples deal with the use of an automobile furnished by the employer. One example holds that a fire chief does not have compensation from the use of a car to enable him to go on short notice to the scene of major fires. Another example holds that the use of a government automobile by a United States ambassador to travel to and from work, as permitted by Federal statutes regulating the use of official vehicles, does not result in gross income. There also is an example holding that providing a chauffeur-driven car to take a top executive of a corporation to and from work results in compensation, but that use of the car to take the executive from his office to business appointments does not result in compensaiion. Proposed amendments to the regulations. In order to provide rules relating to whether or not incidental facilities, goods, and services benefiting employees result in gross income to the employees, the Income Tax Regulations (26 CFR PART I) are amended as follows: Paragraph 1. Immediately after section 1. 61-15 there is added the following new section: 4rs - 51.61-16 Incidental facilities, goods, and services benefiting employees. (a) In general. Where an employer makes available to its employees generally facilities, goods, or services that exist incidentally to its trade or business, the resulting benefits to employees, their immediate families, or guests accompanying the employees shall not be treated as compensation includible in gross income under the following circumstances: (1) The facilities, goods, or services are owned by or under the control of the employer for purposes proper to the conduct of the trade or business involved and are primarily unrelated to the personal use or consumption of such items by employees of the employer, (2) The facilities, goods, or services are made available to employees under terms and conditions such that the employer incurs no substantial additional cost in making them so available, and (3) The facilities, goods, or services are made available to employees generally or to reasonable classifications of employees determined, for example, on the basis of the nature of their work, seniority, or similar factors (but not including classifications primarily including only the most highly compensated employees). The extension under like circumstances of similar privileges by an employer to individuals who are employees of another employer in the same or a related trade or business shall not be included in the income of such individuals or their employer. - 6(b) Other benefits. Where facilities, goods, or services are made available under circumstances that do not meet the requirements of paragraph (a), whether or not the benefit conferred constitutes compe sation includible in gross income will be determined on the basis of all the facts and circumstances. The following factors, among others, shall be considered where present. The presence of one or more of them wili not necessarily be controlling, but will be a fact tending to indicate that the benefit does not constitute compensation includible in gross income. (1) The cost incurred by the employer in providing the benefit is not identifiable or is not significant in relation to the fair market value of the benefit received by the employee. (2) The personal use occurs during, immediately before, or immediately after working hours at or near the business premises of the employer and has a proximate relation to work performed by the employee. (3) The benefit is provided to employees generally or to reasonable.classifications of employees determined, for example, on the basis of the nature of their work, seniority, or similar factors (but not including classifications primarily including only the most highly compensated employees). (4) The benefit is similar to a service or other benefit which is commonly provided by state or local governments in the United States, but which is not readily available to the employees because of the location of their employment. P1 - 7(5) The benefit accommodates an important requirement of the employer or relieves the employer of significant expense or inconvenience. (6) The benefit is reimbursement of a greater than usual item of expense which was incurred by the employee for a purpose normally thought primarily personal but which was incurred because a business requirement of the employer prevented the employee from obtaining the item in the ordinary manner. (7) The benefit is provided primarily to insure the employee's safety by protecting against a significant risk arising from the employment relation. (8) The benefit is not a substantial amount absolutely or in comparison to the employee's stated compensation. (9) The item generally is not thought of as constituting compensation includible in gross income. The failure of a benefit to qualify under one or more of the above factors, in appropriate cases, may be a fact tending to indicate that it does constitute compensation includible in gross income. (c) De minimis exception. The provision of facilities, goods, or services shall not be deemed to give rise to compensation includible in gross income when the amount of such item is so small as to make accounting for it unreasonable or administratively impractical. 2* - 8 - (d) Amount of income. If it is determined that an item is conpemsation includible in an employee's gross income, then the amount included in gross income is the fair market value of the item, which is the amount that the employee would have had to pay, on an arm's - length basis, to obtain use or possession of equivalent facilities, goo or services. (e) Definition. For purposes of this section the term "employee" includes self-employed individuals, independent contractors, and office of a corporation, but does not include shareholders of a corporation as such. (f) Examples. The principles of this section are illustrated by the following examples. Example (1). Flight attendants for a commercial airline are permitted to make a specified number of trips each year at no cost. The number of trips allowed each flight attendant depends upon the length of time each flight attendant has been an employee of the airline. A flight attendant must have been an employee for at least six months before being eligible to take any such flight. Flight attend may travel to any destination served by the employer airline or by any airlines with which the employer has reciprocal arrangments. Trips are permitted only on a space available basis and do not result in loss of revenue to the airline. The trips taken by a flight attendant on the employer airline, or on another airline with which the employer has a reciprocal arrangement, qualify under paragraph (a) - 9and are not compensation includible in gross income because the flights on which the flight attendant travels are a part of the airline's regula business and are primarily unrelated to personal use by employees, the employer incurs no substantial additional cost, and the classification of employees by their function as flight attendants and sub-classification by seniority is a reasonable method of classification. Example (2). A commercial airline encourages bona fide travel agents to take a reasonable number of trips each year on a stand-by basis at a nominal price. The purpose of making the travel privileges available to the travel agents is to familiarize them with the airline's services and with the attractions at destinations served by the airline, and thus to increase the likelihood that they will arrange for their customers' travel using services provided by the airline. The business of travel agents is related to that of the airline. The extension of transportation to a travel agent for a nominal price qualifies under paragraph (a) for the reasons given in Example (1) regarding the similar benefit made available to a flight attendant. Example (3). A retail store allows its employees with at least six months' service a discount on purchases made at the store. The price of merchandise net of the discount to the employees is not less than the wholesale price of the merchandise. The benefits received by an employee may qualify under the de minimis exception of paragraph (c). Even if they do not so qualify, the merchandise discounts do qualify under paragraph (a) because the merchandise is from normal inventory, the employer merely forgoes additional income and does not incur any significant additional costs, and the discount is generally available to all employees. An employee does not realize compensation includible in gross income by reason of the discount. Example (4). An interior decorator purchases furniture for her own home at the wholesale price generally charged interior decorators by the manufacturer. The business of the interior decorator is related to that of the furniture manufacturer. The lower price to the interior decorator does not result in compensation includible in gross income under paragraph (a) for the reasons given in Example (3) regarding similar benefits to employees of a retail store. Example (5). (a) An executive of a company and his wife travel in a company-owned plane to City A to shop and attend the theater. The plane otherwise would not have made the flights. The executive works during the flights to and from City A. Company policy allows top executives to use its planes for such personal trips. The use of the company plane does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the employer incurred substantial additional cost and because such use of company planes is restricted to top executives. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the large identifiable costs incurred by employer, the absence of a proximate relationship of the trip to the executive's employment, and the limitation of the use of the company planes to top executives. The executive has compensation includible -11 in gross income. Since the company plane made the trip solely for the benefit of the executive and his wife, the amount of gross income is the cost of chartering the same or an equivalent plane for the round trip to City A. (b) The executive's secretary accompanied him on the trip to City A to take dictation and perform other secretarial duties during the flight. Since the secretary's primary purpose of traveling to City A was to be available to the executive, the incidental personal pleasure which she derives from the travel qualifies under the de minimis exception of paragraph (c). The secretary's travel also qualifies under paragraph (a) because the use of the plane to transport the secretary to City A was proper to the secretary's employment as the executive's personal secretary, the employer incurred no substantial additional cost in her traveling, and the availability of such travel t the secretary under such circumstances constitutes a reasonable classification because of the nature of her duties. The Secretary has no compensation includible in gross income as a result of traveling to City A. (c) The secretary's mother also accompanied her on the trip at no additional cost to the company. Since the travel did not Constitute compensation includible in gross income to the secretary under paragraph (a), the same benefit extended to her mother, as a member of her immediate family, did not constitute compensation includible in income to anyone. - 12 - ^^^ Example (6). A company executive travels to City B on a company-owned plane to attend a two-day trade convention important to the business of the company. At his invitation he is accompanied by his wife and daughter and the president of a college located in the same community as the company. The wife, daughter, and college president occupy seats on the plane that otherwise would have gone unused. The wife, daughter, and the college president do not attend the trade convention. Under paragraph (a) transportation furnished to the wife, daughter, and college president do not constitute compensation includible in gross income to anyone because under paragraph (a) the flight to City B was primarily for a business purpose and was primarily unrelated to the personal enjoyment of the executive, the furnishing of transportaion to additional persons did not entail any substantial additional expense to the company, and the extension of the privilege of inviting guests to those classes of employees who are themselves traveling for a proper purpose of the employer is a reasonable classification. The furnishing of transportation to the wife, daughter, and college president does not constitute compensation includible in gross income. Example (7). A company's plant is located in an area which is unsafe at night and in which there is not suitable public transportation available to employees leaving work between midnight and 6 a.m. An employee finishing work at 2 a.m. is reimbursed exactly for taxi fare home under a general policy extending taxi service or reimbursement to all employees finishing work between midnight and 6 a.m. Employees who drive their own automobiles may park in a protected area, but are not paid for taxi service not used. 3L3 - 13 The furnishing of taxi fare at night does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the employer incurs substantial additional cost in furnishing it. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the exact reimbursement of a greater than usual expense incurred by an employee who would ride mass public transportation if it were available, the safety factor, and the general availability of the taxi fare to similarly situated employees. The taxi fare reimbursement does not constitute compensation includible in gross income. Example (8). A.n accounting firm reimburses an employee the exact amount the employee spends on dinner and on taxi fare home where the employee works several hours beyond his normal quitting time because of the press of the employer's business. The reimbursement does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the employer incurs substantial additional expense. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the exact reimbursement of a greater than usual expense incurred by the employee, the accommodation of an important business requirement of the employer, and the proximate relation of the reimbursement to the overtime period. The reimbursement does not constitute compensation includible in gross income to the employee. Example (9). A company provides a chauffeur-driven automobile to and from work for each of its top executives. The cars also are available to the executives for trips to and from business appointments. The furnishing of such service to the executives does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the cars and chauffeurs are not primarily - 14 - JW unrelated to the personal use by the executives, the employer incurs substantial additional cost, and the service is limited to the highest paid executives. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the limitation of the chauffeur service to the top executives, the proximate relation of the transportation to the executiv work, and the accommodation of the needs of the employer. In this case a distinction must be made between providing transportation to and from work, which is a personal commuting expense, and transportation to and from business appointments, which is a business expense. The former constitutes compensation includible in gross income while the latter does not. The amount of compensation realized by the executives is the cost of obtaining the same or equivalent chauffeur service to and from work on an arm's-length basis. Example (10). A company's headquarters are in an office building which it owns in the downtown area of a large city. The building has garage space in the basement that is used for deliveries and guest parking. A limited number of spaces also are available for parking by the company's employees. In allotting those spaces among its employees, the company gives preference to those employees whose duties require them to work irregular hours, who frequently use their cars for business purposes during the day, and, other things being equal, to employees with seniority. These criteria, in fact, result in most of the spaces being alloted to executives, but spaces also are provided to others who meet the criteria and are not available to executives who do not meet the criteria. The employer incurred a substantial additional cost in acquiring the parking facility and incurs continuing substantial additional costs in maintaining and operating the facility. Because the parking spaces are assigned to employees on a guaranteed basis, the use by the employees preempts other potential uses. Accordingly, the use of a parking space does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the employer incurs substantial additional cost. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the availability of the parking in the employer's building during working hours, the reasonbleness of the classification, and the accommodation of the employer's important requirement that the employees using the parking facilities be readily available0 The employees using the parking facility do not have compensation includible in gross income. Example (11). United States ambassadors are furnished an official vehicle and driver. An ambassador uses his car on official business and for commuting from his residence to the embassy. Federal laws governing the use of funds appropriated for Executive departments and agencies prohibit the use of appropriated funds to opera and maintain any Government-owned automobile that is not used exclusively for official purposes. Under these provisions, official purposes does not, with limited exceptions, include transporting a govern ment employee to and from work. An employee who willfully uses, or authorizes the use of, a government vehicle for such transportation may suspended from employment or, if the circumstances warrant, summarily removed from office. However, these prohibitory provisions do not 9 - 16 apply to vehicles for official use of the President, the heads of certain enumerated executive departments, ambassadors, minister, charges d'affaires, and other principal diplomatic and consular officials. The providing of an official vehicle and driver to ambassadors does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the vehicles and drivers are not primarily unrelated to the personal use by the executive, the employer incurs substantial additional cost, and the benefit is limited to the most highly compensated officials. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factor is the finding by Congress, implicit in the provisions regulating use of appropriated funds, that the official duties of certain federal employees require that they be on call at all times and have the use of an official vehicle for transportation to and from work. Depending on the circumstances provision of an official vehicle and driver also may protect the ambassador from a danger arising from the employment relationship. See examples (7) and (13). The use of the official vehicle and driver by the ambassador does not constitute compensation includible in gross income. Example (12). The fire chief of City C is required to be available by telephone at all times and to be able to go on short notice to the scene of major fires. The city provides a car and driver which is available at all times. The fire chief occasionally uses the car for nonbusiness purposes. The providing of the car and driver to the fire chief does not qualify under paragraph (a) because it requires substantial additional expenses by the employer. - 17 Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the proximate relation of the car and driver to the fire chief's duty to supervise personally fighting of all major fires and the accommodation of the employer's requirement that the fire chief be readily available for this duty. The use of the car and driver by the fire chief to go to fires does not constitute compensation includible in gross income. The occasional personal use of the car and driver by the fire chief qualifies under the de minimis exception of paragraph (c) and does not constitute compensation includible in gross income. Example (13). The president of a multi-national corporation is threatened by an organization of political extremists in a foreign country who allege that the corporation has exploited their country. The corporation provides bodyguards for the president and his immediate family. The protection does not qualify under paragraph (a) because it requires substantial additional expense by the employer. The most important relevant factor under paragraph (b) is providing for protection of the executive and his family from a danger arising from the employment relationship. The protection does not result in compensation includible in gross income. Example (14). An automobile agency furnishes cars to its employees as "demonstrators" without charge. The employees use the automobiles primarily for personal use. Because of such use the employer receives a reduced price when the demonstrators are sold. The furnishing of the automobiles does not qualify under paragraph (a) because the employer incurs substantial additional cost. Under paragraph - 18 - " (b) the most important relevant factors are the significant cost incurred by the employer and the absence of a proximate relation of the furnishing of the automobiles to the employees' employment. The employees each have compensation includible in gross income in an amount equal to the cost of leasing the same model automobile in an arm's-length transaction. Example (15). An employer furnishes automobiles to all 30 of its outside traveling salesmen who are away from home an average of four days a week. The company permits the employees to keep the cars over weekends and to use them for personal purposes, provided that they pay for all gasoline they consume for personal use. The employer does not incur any substantial and identifiable cost to maintain and operate the cars because of the personal use of them by the employees. When the employer trades in the fleet of automobiles used by the salesmen, personal use of the cars does not materially affect the price it is able to obtain. The furnishing of the automobiles qualifies under paragraph (a) because the use of the automobiles is proximately related to the employer's business and the personal use by the employees is not the primary purpose for their acquisition, the employer incurs no substantial additional cost, and providing the benefit for a class consisting of all the outside traveling salesmen is a reasonable classification. The use of the automobiles by the salesmen does not result in compensation includible in gross income. - 19 Example (16). An employee occasionally has his secretary type a personal letter and make a copy of it for his records on his employer's electric copying machine. The personal use of the secret and the copying machine qualifies under the de minimis exception of paragraph (c) and does not result in compensation includible in gross income. Example (17). A law firm pays bar association dues of lawyers employed by it. The firm also has a monthly cocktail party for all attorneys and paralegal personnel and has an annual golf, tennis, and swimming outing at a country club. (a) The payment of bar association dues may qualify under the de minimis exception of paragraph (c). If the amount paid by the employer on behalf of each attorney is a substantial additional cost, then paragraphs (a) and (c) will not apply. For purposes of paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the proximate relation of t bar association dues to the practice of law, the general availability o the dues reimbursement to all employed attorneys, and the employer's interest in having its attorneys participate in local bar associations. No compensation includible in gross income results from the payment of the dues. (b) The monthly cocktail party and the annual outing may qualify under the de minimis rule of paragraph (c). If the costs incurred by the employer are substantial, then paragraphs (a) and (c) will not appl For purposes of paragraph (b) the most important relevant factors are the general availability of the cocktail party to all attorneys and par legal personnel and the employer's interest in having all of the legal staff become acquainted with each other and the on-going work in the firm. Permitting only attorneys and paralegal personnel to attend the cocktail parties and outing is a reasonable classification of employees. No compensation includible in gross income results from the cocktail parties and outing. Example (18). A corporation maintains American-style schools for the children of its employees at overseas locations where local schools either are not available or are not comparable to American schools. No tuition is charged. Paragraph (a) does not apply because the employer incurs substantial additional expenses. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factor is that the school provides benefit similar in nature to services provided in the United States by local governments. The employees have no compensation includible in gross income as a result of their children attending the employersponsored school without paying tuition. Example (19). An employer maintains a day care center on its premises for pre-school children of its employees who desire to use the facility. Paragraph (a) does not apply because the employer incurred substantial additional costs. Under paragraph (b) the most important relevant factor in this case is that section 214 of the Internal Revenue Code provides special rules regarding the deduction of day care and certai other expenses. It would frustrate the policy of section 214 if the fair value of the services of the day care center were not included in gross income of the employees utilizing them and then deducted only to the extent provided in section 214. The employees whose pre-school children use the day care center have compensation includible in gross income. They may have an offsetting deduction under section 214. - 21 (g) Effective date. (1) No employee of the United States shall be treated as having compensation includible in gross income by reason of the use of any official vehicle owned or operated by or on behalf of the United States on or before [insert date this Notice is published in the Federal Register], (2) No employer of an automobile agency or related business shall be treated as having compensation includible in gross income by reason of the use of a car furnished by his employer as a "demonstrator" without charge (see example (14) of paragraph (f)) on or before [insert date this Notice is published in the Federal Register]. Paragraph 2. Paragraph 1. 61-2(d) is amended by adding at the end thereof the following new subparagraph: 1.61-2. Compensation for services, including fees, commissions, and similar items. %!>• O- *.!„ 0> -I- O*V* T "i*- "f -'i'* "T* (d) Compensation paid other than in cash. * * * (6) For special rules relating to certain incidental facilities, goods, and services benefiting employees, see 1.61-16. - 2As we publish these proposed regulations, the tax writing committees of Congress are embarking on a reconsideration of a substantial segment of the tax law. In that effort, Congress, too, may wish to focus on certain aspects of the proposals and, perhaps, to modify the results proposed. While we believe Treasury has authority to deal with these issues through the adoption of regulations, Treasury would not object to workable legislative changes or expansion. The lines drawn in the proposals fall in gray areas and could well be different in a number of respects and still be sound. The following summary and discussion are published in the hope that an explanation of the considerations underlying the precedents and the proposed rules will better focus public discussion. I. Summary General rules. (1) Employees do not have taxable compensation where the benefit is on hand anyway, it costs nothing additional to provide it, and it is not limited to top executives. (2) If a benefit does not qualify under (1), then its tax status is determined by looking at all of the facts and circumstances. Among the factors indicating whether or not a benefit is not taxable are: Whether the employer incurs a substantial and identifiable cost. Whether the expense is clearly related to the employer's business. Whether the benefit is exact reimbursement of an unusually large personal expense incurred by the employee on account of the employer's business. Whether the benefit is limited to top executives. (3) Small amounts are not taxed. ^^iiir^^^pi^^^---^1111^the general——' (1) Airline employees and travel agents are not taxed on travel passes. (2) Store employees are not taxed on merchandise discounts. -3(3) An interior decorator is not taxed on the purchase of furniture for personal use at wholesale prices. (4) Use of a business jet is not taxed where employees and their guests use otherwise empty seats. But a flight made only for personal entertainment purposes of an executive and spouse is taxed. (5) Benefits to insure safety are not taxed. Examples are taxi fare home at night from a plant in an unsafe area and bodyguards after a threat by terrorists. (6) Cars are not taxed to the extent required for the job. A specific example deals with and exempts transportation provided the President, and those cabinet officers, ambassadors, and consuls, for whom Congress has impliedly recognized that transportation to and from home is "official. " Officials not covered by Congressional authorization are taxable on the personal use of government cars, including commuting between their homes and offices. Another example covers officials such as fire chiefs, who must be on duty at all hours. Also not taxed are cars for outside salesmen who pay for gas for personal use. Cars are not taxed where they are provided to take an executive from his office to business appointments, but there is tax to the extent the car is used for commuting. The use of "demonstrators" by employees of an auto agency who do not primarily use the car for business is taxed. (7) Free parking spaces in a company garage are not taxed under most circumstances. (8) Having one's secretary type a personal letter is not taxed. (9) Payment of bar association dues by a law firm is not taxed. (10) Periodic social functions of a firm are not taxed to employees. (11) Tuition-free American-style schools operated for overseas employees are not taxed to the employee. (12) The use of a free company day care center results in income that may be offset by a deduction expressly allowed by statute. - 4II. Discussion. The taxation of economic benefits which individuals receive in kind has been troublesome since our income tax system began in 1913. Fringe benefits have proliferated as our industries and working conditions have grown ever more complex. Generalized principles have been slow to develop, and there has inevitably been nonuniformity of treatment of different taxpayers in similar situations. The statutory definition of "gross income"--like most broad and sweeping definitions--fails to provide certainty in a multitude of individual situations. As a result, interpreting and applying the definition have become major tasks for the courts and administrative officials. As in the case of such other broad phrases as "due process" and "equal protection, " a substantial gloss on the statutory language has evolved and become a part of the law. Our Anglo-American system of law rests firmly on precedent, but as precedents amass, it has been the role of jurists and scholars to rationalize the accumulation and to seek the threads of underlying principle. In the process, some precedents are discarded as defective; others are recognized as correct conclusions, but for reasons different from those advanced at the time; and the entire process is subject to constant revision for, as Cardozo said, "if we were to state the law today as well as human minds can state it, new problems, arising almost overnight, would encumber the ground again. "* This constant and dynamic search for organizing principles is the genius of our legal system. The proposed regulations represent a limited effort to apply that process to a narrow but vexing area of the tax law, in which more than half a century of judicial and administrative precedent have produced considerable confusion and uncertainty. There are no general principles which will accommodate every judicial decision and administrative action that has occurred in the last 62 years, for a number of those decisions and actions are inconsistent with each other and with the general lines of precedent that have developed. The attempt has been to discover those organizing principles which best conform to the body of precedent and which themselves represent sound and equitable policies. The proposals are presented with the awareness that the principles expressed are not all-encompassing and that the principles will themselves require modification in time, for it is no doubt *£ardozo, "The Growth of the Law" (1924), p. 19. These lectures, addressed in part to the then current effort of the American Law Institute to "restate" the law in a number of areas, contain a discussion of this process. - 5necessary to a sound and practical income tax that the content of "income' should remain somewhat fluid, so that the application of the tax can keep pace with changing conditions. * It is intended that the proposed regulations be viewed as broad principles suggesting a rationale and path to a reasonable solutions in particular cases. They are essentially different from those highly technical provisions of the Code and regulations intended to deal definitively with all aspects of a narrow problem. They are not to be construed or applied in a narrow and literal fashion to exclude every situation which fails to be described by the precise language employed. "As in other sciences, so in politics, it is impossible that all things should be precisely set down in writing; for enactments must be universal, but actions are concerned with particulars. "** The Definition of "income. " The Internal Revenue Code states simply that Gross income means all income from whatever source derived.... As a definition, that language has an obvious defect, for to say that gross income includes income still fails to tell us what income is. The statutory language should be viewed rather as broad authorization to reach such items as may be appropriate, in the context of our overall system. It is clearly broad enough to encompass almost any economic benefit, but it is equally clear that it has not been construed to do so. To the uninitiated layman the language may appear sufficient. For perhaps the great majority of taxpayers, no ambiguities exist. Income from wages and salaries, dividends, interest from savings deposits, and the like are universally regarded as income under any definition, and for the majority that appears to take care of all of the problems. But students of the tax law know better, and most of the hundreds of pages of the Internal Revenue Code were written to help draw the lines between what will and what will not be treated as income. *Cf. Surrey and Warren, Federal Income Taxation, 1972, vol. 1, p. 115 -^Aristotle, Politics, Book II, quoted by Cardozo, op. cit. - 6Even for theoretical economists, there has been great confusion as to exactly what constitutes income. The classic work on the subject is Professor Simons', Personal Income Taxation (1938), which comments on the task of defining "income": Many writers have undertaken to formulate definitions, and with the most curious results. Whereas the word is widely used in discussions of justice in taxation and without evident confusion, the greatest variety and dissimilarity appear, as to both content and phraseology, in the actual definitions proposed by particular writers. The consistent recourse to definition in terms which are themselves undefinable (or undefined or equally ambiguous) testifies eloquently to the underlying confusion. ** Professor Simons' own theoretical definition of income (generally known as the Haig-Simons definition) has become the definition perhaps most widely accepted among economists. However, the theoretical definitions of income have not been used for the practical purpose of assessing taxes, except as a frame of reference against which to judge the existing system. Thus, Professor Simons, himself, says: If one accepts our definition of income, one may be surprised that it has ever been proposed seriously as a basis for taxation. .. One may remark at the outset that no government has ever undertaken to graduate taxes really on the basis of personal income. The actual tax base is merely something calculated according to more or less carefully defined methods; and these methods may be regarded as designed to give results which are in most instances something like true personal income. Indeed, every income tax is, and probably must be, based largely on presumptions.. . . Tax laws do not really define income but merely set up rules as to what must be included and what may be deducted; and such rules by no means define income because they are neither exhaustive nor logically coherent.. .. Indeed, if there be any excuse for a treatise like this, it must lie in the importance of maintaining some broad--and perhaps quite "impractical"--conception in terms of which existing and proposed practices in income taxation may be examined, tested, and criticized. * *Simons, op. cit., pp.~TU3-T06 **pp. 41-42 - 7It is sometimes asserted simply that income includes any "economic benefit" received, and "economic benefit" is the germ of the more elegant theoretical definition which Professor Simons developed. But the concept of "economic benefit" does not explain 60 years of actual experience. Nor does it conform to public understanding and custom. The fact that economic logic and theory are separated by a substantial gap from the legal rules that have actually developed is neither unique nor undesirable, for as Justice Holmes said: The life of the law has not been logic: it has been experience. The felt necessities of the time, the prevalent moral and political theories, intuitions of public policy, avowed or unconscious, even the prejudices which judges share with their fellow-men, have had a good deal more to do than the syllogism in determining the rules by which m e n should be governed. * A few examples will suffice to show that the concept of "economic benefit" does not explain the law: (1) Social security, welfare, and unemployment compensation payments are not taxable as income under our system. There is no section of the Code which so provides. The exclusion grew up as a result of administrative action, undoubtedly in response to what Justice Holmes called "the felt necessities of the times. " (2) Persons who purchase life insurance pay premiums which are in effect invested on their behalf. Income from those investments is not taxed to the purchaser, notwithstanding that they clearly represent economic benefits. (3) Taxpayers who invest money in the purchase of a house realize income in kind consisting of the right to live in the house. That income is not taxed under our tax system although there is nothing in the Code which expressly excludes it. (Such income has been taxed at various times under other systems. ) A taxpayer who invests the same money in stocks or bonds with the intention of using the income to rent a house, on the other hand, must pay tax on the income from the stocks and bonds, which reduces the amount available to pay rent. (4) Meals and lodging provided to taxpayers by their employers clearly constitute an economic benefit but are not taxable to the extent they are provided "for the convenience of the employer. " This exclusion was initiated early by administrative ruling and existed for 40 years on that basis. In 1954, it was written into the Internal Revenue Code in somewhat modified fashion. ^'Holmes, The C o m m o n Lav, p. I. - 8(5) Entertainment, meals, travel, and lodging received in a business context are in large part untaxed under current statutory provisions. At the higher levels of today's business communities, individuals' personal and business lives tend to meld into an indistinguishable whole, and many persons spend much of their lives in such activities. It is a legitimate conjecture whether the restaurant and resort industries would be decimated without these provisions. (6) Large elaborate offices for executives, attended with employees and accompanied by working conditions designed to provide every creature comfort and convenience are commonplace and obviously constitute an economic benefit which has both personal and business aspects. Those benefits are not taxed. (7) A great variety of miscellaneous benefits provided by employers have been held administratively not to constitute income. Examples include group-term life insurance and compensation for tornado damage. None of the economic benefits in the foregoing examples was originally excluded from income because of a clear and specific statutory exclusion. Nor were they excluded because of insurmountable administrative considerations. For the billions of dollars of additional revenues which could be obtained from these sources, it would obviously be possible to devise workable administrative rules. The results are better explained by what Justice Holmes called "the prevalent moral and political theories, " than by strict theory. The attitude of labor unions on some of these items is interesting as an expression of one view as to "prevalent theories. " Justice Goldberg speaking in his earlier role as General Counsel, CIO, took the following position: The line between [compensation and conditions of employment] is, perhaps, not susceptible of precise definition. The reason it is not is because the line is really an institutional and sociological one. It depends very much on what our current conception of the relative responsibilities of employer and employee happen to be. The question is whether the benefit in question is one which we regard as a proper responsibility which employers should supply for employees as a condition of employment wholly apart from the compensation for their work. And the answers to that question vary from time to time. - 9To the extent that benefits are usually or normally provided by employers, even though they m a y involve a saving to an employee over alternative methods of providing this facility by himself, then, to that extent the provision of such benefits should not be considered as compensation to the employee but as the provision of improved conditions of work. Applying these views to employer-provided insurance, he concluded the benefit to be nontaxable, stating: How about insurance? With this principle in mind, are the insurance programs negotiated by unions just a disguised way of paying compensation, or are they offered on a service basis as a condition of employment? Clearly the latter. * The Internal Revenue Code as presently interpreted by the regulations and the better reasoned case law requires more than a finding that an employee enjoyed an economic benefit. Section 61(a)(1) of the Code speaks of "compensation for services. " The regulations condition taxability upon finding a situation where "services are paid for other than in money. " Treas. Reg. Sec. 1. 61-2(d)(l). And, in the Supreme Court's words, section 61 "is broad enough to include in taxable income any economic or financial benefit conferred on the employee as compensation. " Comm'r v. Smith, 324 U.S. 177, 181 (1945) (emphasis added). The notion of a bargain between employer and employee--that there must be a payment in exchange for services--has been added as an essential element for the taxation of compensation, including fringe benefits. Policy Considerations. In sum, there is no easy or entirely satisfactory answer as to how all economic benefits should be taxed or not taxed. Professor Simons says with respect to income in kind: There is here an essential and insuperable difficulty, even in principle. The problem. . . certainly is not amenable to reasonable solution on the basis of simple rules which could be administered by revenue agents. . . . At all events, let it be recognized that one faces here one of the real imponderables of income definition. ** ^Quoted in Surrey and Warren, o£). cit. , p. 139 ** Simons, op. cit., pp. 123-24 <T - 10 - The principles governing the taxation of fringe benefits inescapably involve a large degree of judgment not reducible to a single formulistic test or tests. Simple mechanical formulas are not possible. In reaching the judgments embodied in the proposed regulations, the following policy considerations were taken into account. (1) Present practices in general are codified. Sixty-two years of experience must be given great weight. The practices which have developed provide a reasonable and pragmatic guide to which economic benefits are appropriate for taxation. The general rules of the proposed regulations excluding benefits inherent in the employer's business under certain circumstances deal with a category of clear economic benefits that have not been generally taxed and which, we believe, generally should not be taxed. The first eight factors set out in the proposed regulations are distillations of principles from experience and are applications of the ninth factor, which states that an item is not taxed if it is not thought of as constituting compensation paid for services. While these factors necessarily lack particularity in m a n y respects, they are m u c h m o r e specific than the statutory language and far preferable to some simplistic theory (such as "economic benefit") that is at odds with our national conception of what realistically constitutes taxable compensation for services. In s o m e instances, where precedent was slim, or unconvincing, questions have been resolved in favor of taxpayers. In other cases, rules were resolved against taxpayers even though good arguments would be m a d e for a contrary result. For example, in the case of executive transportation furnished by employers, it might arguably have been reasonable to hold that private transportation was not taxable to the extent it was furnished to permit the executive to perform work while commuting. However, the line of precedent with respect to commuting expense is so extensive and so firmly established that such a rule did not appear to be an administrative option. (2) Statutory authority is broad but not mandatorily all-encompassing. The statutory definition of income is very broad. That broad scope provides the residual authority to deal with new forms of compensation and other income generally as they develop without having to amend the statute each time. Inherent in that authority is the flexibility and, indeed, the necessity to distinguish between economic benefits which should be taxed and those which should not. The draft regulations do not extend the reach of the income tax to fringe benefits so far as they could legally, but only so far as they m a y practically. (3) Equity among taxpayers. As indicated earlier, many highincome persons, particularly those whose business and personal lives are in effect melded, enjoy mstjor economic benefits in the form of meals, lodging, travel,and entertainment, m u c h of which goes untaxed under rules that are statutory. W h e n this is occurring in -11 - so widespread a fashion, it seems particularly unfair, for example, to tax ordinary airline employees for traveling in otherwise empty seats or to tax retail clerks for discounts received on goods purchased from their employers. If all taxpayers had fringe benefits or other benefits in kind and those benefits were roughly in proportion to their other income, then the uniform exclusion of all such benefits from tax would be as equitable as tax matters are likely ever to be and would probably contribute to a m o r e efficient and effective tax system, as it would avoid the valuation and withholding problems discussed below. But the non-uniform exclusion of such benefits-exclusions for s o m e but not others--would be clearly inequitable. Thus, in drafting the proposed regulations a special effort was m a d e to be sure that ordinary taxpayers in the lower and middle income classes were treated in a fashion as generous as that which very high income taxpayers already enjoy, subject to the overriding principle that the integrity of the system must be protected. (4) Valuation problems. Valuation of benefits in kind is extremely difficult in many, if not most cases, and the necessity for valuation vastly complicates the tax law. What is the value to a stewardess of riding in an otherwise empty seat? In most cases the privilege would not be worth to her the retail price of a ticket, i. e., she would not m a k e the trip if she had to pay for it. Thus, in Reginald Turner, 13 T. C. M . 462 (1954), the court dealt with taxpayers who had won a free trip to South America and stated: The winning of the tickets did not provide them with something which they needed in the ordinary course of their lives and for which they would have m a d e an expenditure in any event, hut merely gave them an opportunity to enjoy a luxury otherwise beyond their means. Their value to the petitioners was not equal to their retail cost. Similarly, how would one tax free or subsidized medical and recreational services and facilities for employees? Or company cafeteria meals provided at prices less than the prices prevailing in comparable restaurants? Valuation of such items comes very close to valuing working conditions as such, an undertaking that would encounter almost insurmountable difficulties. * In general, it is desirable to avoid the complications of taxing such items, unless their omission constitutes a serious threat to the tax base or creates inequities that are significant in the context of the system as a whole. -See Vickrey, Agenda for Progressive Taxation (1947), p. 123. - 12 (5) Withholding considerations. Our system relies on wage withholding to collect most of the personal income tax. In 1972, $91 billion of $110 billion personal income tax collected was withheld from wages. The system works well only because almost all of the tax is collected automatically on cash payments. Withholding involves only easy arithmetic applied to unambiguous dollar amounts. Audit of withheld amounts is easy. If we should attempt to include in the withholding base every economic benefit enjoyed by great numbers of employees, the operation of the system would be seriously jeopardized. Taxpayers would have many ingenious theories to justify exclusion from gross income and, when taxed, there would be an infinity of valuation problems, of the kind referred to above. This reliance on a simple self-executing system to collect most income tax leads to the policy judgment that, as a general rule, only those fringe benefit cases which threaten the integrity of the basic system should be taxed. Thus, the proposed regulations reach private junkets on corporate aircraft, personal use of company cars (and drivers) by executives, and discriminatory use of company facilities generally. While the proposed regulations reach these obvious cases, they do not involve the esoteric problems of taxing, and thus valuing, for example, the right to occupy an otherwise empty seat on a commercial flight. Employee discounts and free travel for airline flight attendants do not threaten the integrity of our income tax system. There is a great risk that trying to tax these and similar items would threaten the continued success of our self-assessment system. (6) Retroactivity. In some cases, notwithstanding that existing precedent might have supported an assertion of taxability, it is in fact the case that tax has not been generally collected. This is true, for example, in the case of automobiles and automobile transportation provided in a variety of situations. In such cases, it seems unfair to impose heavy tax liabilities retroactively on unsuspecting laymen. Thus, in a few instances, the proposed regulations would exercise the statutory discretion given by the Code to the Secretary to apply administrative rules on a nonretroactive basis. Conclusion. The proposed regulations are published for discussion as an attempt to provide guidelines that will afford greater degrees of certainty, uniformity, and fairness in an area which has become steadily more significant. They will not provide simple formulas which can be mechanically applied by revenue agents. That is not a defect, as present law provides no such formula either, except insofar as the broad sweep of the existing statutory language m a y in practicality give a revenue agent the personal discretion to include anything and everything that appears to result in economic benefit - 13 - to the employee--an obviously unsatisfactory state of affairs. There is no way to avoid judgments in this difficult area, and w e can only work to insure that those judgments are as sound and uniform as possible. The draft regulations are published in the hope that they will provide the basis for prescribing better guidelines to that end. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy September 2, 1975 - 13 to the employee--an obviously unsatisfactory state of affairs. There is no way to avoid judgments in this difficult area, and we can only work to insure that those judgments are as sound and uniform as possible. The draft regulations are published in the hope that they will provide the basis for prescribing better guidelines to that end. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy September 2, 1975 FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. , r , . ,. September 3, 1975 TREASURY OFFERS $1.5 BILLION OF TREASURY BILLS -• i 9 j"7 ' + The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $1,500,000,000, or thereabouts, to be issued September 5, 1975, as follows: 13-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $800,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated March 20, 1975, maturing September 18, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XP6), and 20-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated March 27, 1975, maturing September 25, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XQ4). The bills will be issued on a discount and at maturity their face amount will be be issued in bearer form in denominations $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), bidders. basis under competitive bidding, payable without interest. They will of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, and in book-entry form to designated Tenders will be received for each issue only at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York up to noon, Eastern Daylight Saving time, Thursday, September 4, 1975. Wire and telephone tenders may be received at the discretion of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each tender for each issue must be for a minimum of $10,000,000. Tenders over $10,000,000 must be in multiples of $1,000,000. The price on tenders offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on September 5, 1975, in immediately available funds. (OVERl FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. \. , ^. L ;r ~September3, 1975 TREASURY OFFERS $1.5 BILLION OF TREASURY BILLS r f \ j-y <- .• The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $1,500,000,000, or thereabouts, to be issued September 5, 1975, as follows: 13-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $800,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated March 20, 1975, maturing September 18, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XP6), and 20-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated March 27, 1975, maturing September 25, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XQ4). The bills will be issued on a discount and at maturity their face amount will be be issued in bearer form in denominations $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), bidders. basis under competitive bidding, payable without interest. They will of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, and in book-entry form to designated Tenders will be received for each issue only at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York up to noon, Eastern Daylight Saving time, Thursday, September 4, 1975. Wire and telephone tenders may be received at the discretion of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each tender for each issue must be for a minimum of $10,000,000. Tenders over $10,000,000 must be in multiples of $1,000,000. The price on tenders offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on September 5, 1975, in immediately available funds. COVERS -2- < ^ Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. . FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 3, 1975 TREASURY FINANCING ANNOUNCEMENT In order to meet its financing needs through the low point of its operating cash balance in mid-September, the Treasury will sell up to $0.8 billion of an additional amount of the bills maturing September 18, 197 5, and up to $0.7 billion of an additional amount of the bills maturing September 25, 1975. These 13- and 20-day bills will be auctioned only through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on September 4 for payment on September 5. The minimum acceptable tender for each of these issues will be $10 million, with increments of $1 million above that minimum. The need for a short-term cash management instrument of this type has substantially increased over the past several- years and is a result of the growing concentration of large payments in the first several working days of each month. This in turn has led to the substantial increase in the variability of the Treasury's cash balance, thereby requiring that the Treasury either maintain abnormally high balances to accommodate the intra-monthly low point in the balance or to borrow directly from the Federal Reserve. The resulting variability of the Treasury's balance at the Federal Reserve Bank affects the reserves of the banking system in a manner that often requires the Federal Reserve to undertake large open market operations to offset this reserve impact. These operations have at times been unsettling to the market. Use of short-dated bills of this type, first offered by the Treasury in August of this year, represents a new means for the maintenance of orderly markets. As such,this offering serves much the same purpose as Tax Anticipation Bills which have been offered from time to time in the past to provide financing over a low point in the Treasury's cash balance prior to a major tax date. Unlike the use of Tax Anticipation Bills, however, the sale of these bills carries no implication of a future paydown. However, depending upon cash requirements, the Treasury may choose to either increase or decrease the amounts to be offered when these bills mature. -2These short-dated bills have been referred to as "Federal Funds Bills." The minimum $10 million tender size and the offering solely through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York simplify the auction and permits these bills to be sold on much shorter notice than is the case with regular bill auctions.Investors outside of New York may subscribe through correspondent banks or dealers in New York or directly with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by wire. HINGTON, D.C. 20220 fASHir Jf* September 4, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF AUCTION OF $1.5 BILLION OF 13-DAY AND 20-DAY TREASURY BILLS The Treasury has accepted $0.8 billion of the $3.0 billion of tenders received for the 13-day Treasury bills and $0.7 billion of the $3.2 billion of tenders received for the 20-day Treasury bills, to be issued September 5, 1975, auctioned today. The range of accepted bids was as follows: OF ACCEPTED ITIVE BIDS: High Low Average 13-day bills maturing September 18, 1975 Price Discount Rate 99.782 99.775 99.777 6.037% 6.231% 6.175% : Investment : Rate : 6.15% 6.35% 6.29% : : : 20-day bills maturing September 25, 1975 Price Discount Rate 99.664 99.656 99.658 6.048% 6.192% 6.156% Tenders at the low price for the 13-day bills were allotted 95%. Tenders at the low price for the 20-day bills were allotted 90%. Investment Rate 6.17% 6.32% 6.28% £f/ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 4, 1975 Contact: H.C. Shelley 964-8256 TREASURY ANNOUNCES ACTION ON ANTIDUMPING INVESTIGATION Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, David R. Macdonald, announced today a final determination that certain non-powered hand tools from Japan (chisels, punches, vises, c-clamps, hammers and sledges, and battery service tools) were being sold at less than fair value within the meaning of the Antidumping Act of 1921, as amended. The U.S. International Trade Commission has been advised of this decision and must now determine whether such imports are injuring a U.S. industry. Five Japanese firms, Imoto Hamono Co., Ltd., Kyoto Tool Co., Ltd. (hammers), Hiroto Tekko K.K. (sledges), Tashiro Seisakusho, and Japan Export Brush Co. (battery servicing tools), were found to have had no less than fair value sales during the investigatory period and have been excluded from the determination. Mr. Macdonald also announced that the investigation with respect to micrometers, vernier calipers, and dial indicators had been discontinued. Margins of sales at less than fair value for these categories of tools were minimal and assurances were received from the Japanese manufacturers that future sales would be at fair value. Imports of these tools will be monitored for a two-year period by the U.S. Customs Service. A withholding of appraisement notice and a tentative discontinuance of the investigation for the respective categories of tools was published in the Federal Register of June 5, 1975. Interested persons were given the opportunity to present their views on the investigations. Notice of these final actions will be published in the Federal Register of September 5, 1975. During calendar year 1974, imports of these non-powered hand tools from Japan were valued at approximately $11 million. June 30, 1975 3fZ UNITED STATES SAVINGS BONOS ISSUED AND (ADEEMED THROUGH (Dollar amounls in millions - rounded >nd will not necessarily add to totals) DESCRIPTION A M O U N T ISSUED-^/ MATURED 5003 29521 3754 S^ri^ A-10.15 thru D-1941 snrios V and G-1941 thru 1952 pnrios .1 and K-1952 thru 1957 AMOUNT REDEEMED—' AMOUNT OUTSTANDING--/ 4999 29502 3749 "/r O U T S T A N D I N C OF A M O U N T ISSUf 4 19 5 .08 .06 .13 176 794 9.05 9.25 9.11 9.60 12.02 13.12 15.35 16.65 17.95 18.98 19.00 19.48 20.95 22.03 22.82 23.27 24.06 25.81 25.45 28.30 30.55 32. 10 35.32 34.98 35.44 37.59 38.23 UNMATURED Scries V.-* : 194 2 1944 8580 1943 13/94 1941 16118 12/12 -5808 5549 5761 5726 5032 4353 4564 5242 5360 5595 5402 5099 4999 4695 4732 4838 4719 5325 5189 5082 5509 5464 5169 4868 5102 5889 6501 6433 6501 2047 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 195G 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 II (\Tnnp 109,8 1181 1277 1257 1227 1290 1242 1339 1478 1515 1881 1815 18012071 2089 2034 2011 2318 3045 3727 3910 4597 1856 1290 6574 23.52 63.51 15835 7969 7864 49.66 226341 160859 65480^ 28.91 38278 38250 226342 264620 660 147 y 160859 199109 _j ... Include accrued discount. Cwrom redemption value. '4. ™ * P M o n of owner bonds may be held and will earn intereit {or additional periods e tier original maturity datt ; 28 65480 65508 st9 : » : : ; 3 9 . "56 4194 3775 '• Total Series H Grand Total 955 827 889 5484 10351 807 I Q ^ Q thru 1 0 7 5 ^ Total Strips F" and H 1028 57616^ v UnclassifipH in^cn 9/ 762 852 959 152890^ 1973 1974 SeriO~S H Mtl'iO thru I h v 1257 1547 1364 210,506 1971 1972 -Total Series E \ 41.31 45.43 51.71 57.33 60.78 70.71 90.67 18.22 27.37 1969 1970 1975 1768 //86 12537 14571 11348 5046 4697 4802 4698 4077 3526 3676 4144 4179 4318 4145 3872 3709 3452 3393 3360 3204 3444 3373 3281 3439 3374 3134 2857 2785 2844 2774 2523 1903 191 . " .07 78793 24.76 • 293 The Absorptive Capacity Of The OPEC Countries September 5, 1975 The Absorptive Capacity of OPEC Countries Page I. Executive Summary i II. Introduction 1 III. The Absorptive Capacity of OPEC Countries 2 IV. Imports in 1980 and 1985 5 V. Country Analyses Iran 8 Saudi Arabia Kuwa it Nigeria The United Arab Emirates Iraq Algeria Qatar Venezuela Ecuador Indonesia Libya VI. Policy Implications 40 Annex - Trends in OPEC Current Account Position 11 15 18 20 23 26 28 30 32 35 37 J?r Executive Summary 1. The sharp increases in the price of oil in late 1973 and early 1974 and the consequent jump in the revenues of the oil producing countries have generated considerable interest in the question of the absorptive capacity of these countries and the extent to which they will be able to utilize their oil revenues for domestic investment and consumption. The question is central to the issues of real resource transfer, recycling and to the impact of these issues on the domestic economic objectives of the consumer countries. 2. These issues have resulted in a number of efforts to gauge the size and structure of the evolving payments position of the OPEC countries. Little effort, however, has been devoted to analyzing the capacity of individual OPEC countries to utilize domestically (or absorb) oil revenues despite large differences in the economic structure of these countries. Most of the forecasts have been of aggregate imports for OPEC as a whole. A few have attempted to separate OPEC into two groups — high absorbers and low absorbers and have projected imports for each of these groupings. This study investigates factors which will bear heavily on each country's import levels over the next decade. 3. During the past year and a half, oil revenues have trickled through broad segments of almost all of the OPEC economies, in consequence of sharply rising government expenditures. In most cases public outlays have increased more rapidly than imports and this pattern has been a major factor in intensifying domestic price pressures. There is considerably greater scope for further massive redistribution of oil revenues in OPEC countries, but an effort in this direction is not a prerequisite for sustained high levels of imports. The extent to which OPEC revenues will be redistributed, however, will affect the mix of OPEC imports. 4. The OPEC countries are beginning to face major problems in further expanding their import levels. These problems have become increasingly apparent in the aftermath of the sharp increase in OPEC imports since 1973 which has strained certain facilities in a number of countries to their limits. Most OPEC countries have recognized these constraints, however, and have in train policies and programs to mitigate or overcome them in the framework of their ^ domestic development plans. The most serious of these constraints are in transportation and manpower. Foreign exchange availabilities are already limiting the import capability of one OPEC country and several others are expected to experience a similar constraint within the next few years. 5. Infrastructure expenditures now have the highest priority in most of the OPEC countries, but many OPEC governments have plans for diversification into industrial activities and establishment of broader agricultural bases. The prospects for successful diversification are uneven and for some countries further development of the energy sector may be the most profitable avenue. Many of the OPEC countries have limited non-hydrocarbon resources and in addition small domestic markets will severely limit the possibility of achieving economies of scale without access to broader regional or world outlets. This access in turn will depend on comparative costs which have not yet been sorted out for many of the plans and projects under consideration. Duplication of effort in some areas which could lead to oversupply problems is also likely to occur. The completion of investment projects in industry and agriculture will frequently result in either increased exports or import substitution, so that the absorptive capacity of these countries will change. The direction of this change will vary from country to country. 6. The Gulf States are least likely to be able to utilize their oil revenues domestically during the next five years, in a reasonably efficient manner. But perhaps only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will sustain large current account surpluses into the 1980,s. On the whole we would expect to see aggregate OPEC imports grow from $37 billion in 1974 to $89 billion in 1980 and to $133 billion by 1985, (all in 1974 prices). This would mean a continuous decline in the annual increase in real OPEC imports from 45 percent in 1974 and 33 percent in 1975, to an average increase of 16 percent annually through the end of this decade, and then to an average increase of only 8 percent from 1980 to 1985. Employing the OECD's forecasts of the growth in OPEC's oil earnings, these import levels would imply an OPEC current account surplus of about $13 billion in 19 80, and a cumulative surplus through 1980 of $195 billion, both in 1974 dollars. 7. In comparison, the aggregate OPEC investible surplus in 1974 is estimated at $59 billion which we anticipate will decline this year to a surplus of about $46 billion. iii Saudi Arabia and Iran, which accounted for more than half of the aggregate OPEC surplus last year, will have an even more dominant position in 1975, despite extremely large increases in their import levels. 8. The issue of absorptive capacity — through its determination of how rapidly the transfer of real resources from the consuming to the producing countries will proceed — relates to several key goals which the industrial countries would seem to have in their relations with OPEC nations. In particular absorptive capacity raises questions with respect to the compatibility of the policies and objectives of the two groups of countries and efforts to ensure that current and prospective oil earnings have minimum disruptive effects on the Western economy and its growth prospects. 9. In the debate that has followed the large and abrupt change in oil prices, there appears to have emerged a preference in many industrial countries for a continued rapid increase in OPEC imports, i.e., a continued rapid transfer of real resources. The preference for present versus future transfers, however, involves a number of complex considerations which have not previously been adequately explored and some of the key arguments in favor of one option or the other fail to hold up under intensive scrunity. Some of the more widely discussed factors bearing on this issue include the effects on: the total level of transfers that would result; the capacity to service OPEC claims; the problem of recycling and cyclical conditions in the major consumer countries. 10. It is far from certain that delayed transfers of real resources will mean a larger total transfer over time. As long as general price movements are as large as pecuniary returns on OPEC investment then the size of the transfer will be unchanged. But recent history indicates a less than complete interest rate accommodation to the rate of inflation. 11. On the other hand, OPEC investment in the consuming countries will not necessarily permit a greater increase in their capacity to service OPEC claims, since export income not only also generates investment capital, but equally important, it increases the demand for such capital through fuller utilization of existing capacity. 12. It is probably impossible for either OPEC governments or OECD governments to develop a trading pattern which will always complement the domestic economic policies of the exporting country, nor would this appear to be necessary. iv Export markets cannot predictably be turned on and off with ease and foreign trade has seldom been used successfully as a major counter-cyclical device. On the other hand domestic authorities are able to create or extinguish domestic demand with greater ease, particularly since policy shifts to change overall demand and supply conditions must be taken quickly. Finally, from a micro viewpoint it is not practical to assume that OPEC countries are ready or able to confine their purchases to the more severely depressed sectors of the economy during periods of economic slowdown. 13. Similarly it should not be assumed that the main solution to short-term adjustments in the international payments position of the major consuming countries, either individually or collectively would lie in a sharp acceleration of exports. The ability to increase exports depends upon the pace and manner of implementation of the highly diverse and uncertain plans of the OPEC countries. As a general proposition the high degree of mobility of capital makes short term adjustments through financial flows far more practical than through changes in current transactions. Previous fears that the market mechanism would be incapable of handling such large financial adjustments have proved to be largely unfounded. 14. There is likely to be a significant relationship between the absorption rate of the OPEC countries and their policies with respect to oil production and prices. But the manner in which these relationships will evolve is highly uncertain at the present time. To date the OPEC countries have been able to reconcile their respective revenue availabilities and requirements through selected changes in both prices and production. Whether countries which have excess revenues will be prepared to continue to make adjustments for the sake of countries facing revenue constraints remains to be seen. Similarly, it is not clear whether the success of the development efforts of OPEC governments which would graphically demonstrate the utility of their oil revenues, would encourage them to maintain high revenue levels through higher prices or higher production. Conversely, the failure to utilize OPEC revenues in a productive way could prompt either conservation efforts or lower prices. 15. Regardless of the preference that individual oil consuming countries may have with respect to the timing of real resource transfers to OPEC countries, a number of constraints will intervene which will make it difficult to carry out major policies designed to achieve the preferred result. In the first place, commercial exchanges of the oil V consuming countries are heavily dominated by the activities of private firms who cannot easily be convinced to undertake unproductive ventures, nor sacrifice productive undertakings against the interests of their shareholders and communities. Furthermore, policy decisions which would attempt to channel oil revenues in a particular way could lead to preferential trade and investment policies which would compromise the economic liberalization that has been so painstakingly established in the post-war period. 16* Governments must guard against a tendency toward a competitive race among them for OPEC markets and investment capital, through subsidies, guarantees or the like. Otherwise the total cost of their oil burden could easily increase. Moreover, they must recognize that countries which rely heavily on specific foreign markets are no less vulnerable to them than are countries which rely on specific sources of oil. 17. We would conclude that the appropriate policy framework in the OECD countries for the transfer of real resources to OPEC governments would be one which would maximize the play of market forces. Not only is this likely to prove necessary for practical reasons, but advantageous from the viewpoint of maximum efficiency and world income. Introduction The sharp increase in the price of internationally traded oil has posed complex problems to both producing and consuming countries which both are now beginning to sort out. The consuming countries are seeking to find ways of minimizing the adverse impact on their economies, while the producing countries are attempting to sustain high oil prices and to utilize their increased oil receipts in a productive manner. The policy issues which have evolved from the sharp redistribution of world income to the oil producing countries have directed considerable attention to the absorptive capacity of these oil producing countries. It is central to the issue of real resource transfer and to the associated issues of recycling and consistency with the domestic economic objectives of the consumer countries. Finally, it is relevant to the industrialization efforts of the OPEC countries and consumer country response. These issues have prompted a number of analysts to investigate the evolving size and structure of OPEC revenues and expenditures in the years ahead. The analysis behind most of the forecasts of the OPEC current account position which have appeared to date has focused mainly on the outlook for oil revenues. Far less effort has been devoted to an analysis of the capacity of each of the OPEC countries to utilize (or absorb) oil revenues despite their distinct differences. Some forecasts have applied a common growth rate in forecasting imports for the OPEC countries. Others have separated OPEC members into a high absorber group and a low absorber group, and have applied separate growth rates to each group. As a step toward further refinement of forecasts of the OPEC payments position, this study investigates factors in each of the OPEC countries which will bear heavily on their respective import levels over the next decade. Rough estimates of each country's imports in 1980 and 1985 have been derived from these analyses. The study benefits from the considerable work that has been done in estimating oil revenues, to identify possible cases of revenue constraints. It should be emphasized that significant problems and uncertainties remain in attempting to analyze OPEC's payments position. Most notable are a paucity of hard data and the somewhat related problem of a still less than perfect understanding in the industrial world of the evolving structure of each OPEC economy. The Absorptive Capacity of the OPEC Countries Although the absorptive capacity of the OPEC countries can be measured by the current level of their imports relative to their current oil revenues, this measurement is not indicative of future absorptive capability. Countries which will have mounted large current account surpluses in 1974-75 may nevertheless eventually be able to employ the bulk of their current oil earnings for domestic purposes. After a time most of them may be able to utilize even their accumulated wealth domestically, especially those countries with major infrastructure requirements and/or moderately large population bases. In order to accelerate the utilization of their new wealth and to do so in the most efficient manner, OPEC countries have been relying heavily on foreign contractors and consultants in implementing their investment plans. Imports of consumer goods continue to be dominated by government imports, particularly of agricultural commodities and foodstuffs. Changes in this trend will depend upon the increase in disposable income in the hands of individuals which more than ever will depend upon the willingness and ability of OPEC governments to redistribute oil revenues, directly and/or indirectly. With respect to the "non-commercial" category of imports, several OPEC countries, particularly in the Middle East, have exhibited a strong desire to import military equipment. On the other hand, "prestige" expenditures have not been pronounced to date. Developments in the aftermath of the abrupt and massive increases in petroleum prices have presented OPEC countries with problems as well as opportunities. In most cases they have been unable to absorb fully the resulting large infusions of foreign exchange. Oil revenues have trickled through broad segments of the economy both directly through government transfer programs and indirectly through the demand for services associated with government investment and consumption. Increases in government expenditures have generally exceeded increases in imports and domestic price pressures have intensified. The effects of oil revenues on the private sectors in the OPEC countries and on their propensity to consume pose a complex situation which is not easily understood. Strength- J3*L ening the private sector is not a goal in all of the OPEC countries. Nor is it clear to what extent income redistribution can be accomplished through traditional fiscal policies on the income and expenditure side. A major redistribution of oil revenues within OPEC economies, however, is not a prerequisite for sustained high levels of imports, but the extent to which this is accomplished will have an important bearing on the import mix. Direct government expenditures will mean continued emphasis on imports for infrastructure development, and other forms of investment, in addition to food and in some cases military imports. A major redistribution of income into private hands, will result in imports of a broader range of goods, particularly for consumption. Most, but not all, OPEC countries have established development plans that provide a general framework for future development but their capacity to execute these plans differs. In some countries, but not all, the decisionmaking process is highly centralized and commitments can be taken expeditiously. As noted earlier, some countries rely heavily on foreign advisors and contractors to expedite development spending. As the following country overview papers indicate, a major constraint in the development efforts of the OPEC countries is insufficient skilled manpower and managerial talent which is characteristic of both the public and private sectors in most of the OPEC countries. Inadequate ports and transport facilities are often a constraint to an immediate increase in imports (representing a source of import demand as well), but this problem is generally not insurmountable. Private sectors are typically small and financial and other institutions, rudimentary. Technology and entrepreneurial talent will have to be imported. In a few countries, there are political, social and/or cultural restraints that will have a significant effect on the pace and direction of government expenditure patterns. Almost all OPEC countries have recognized the importance of emphasizing the building blocks of a modern economy, by concentrating on the development of modern and adequate infrastructure. Some have looked beyond and have already developed ambitious plans for wide-ranging development of industry and agriculture. The industrialization prospects of the OPEC countries, however, are uneven. In each case the extent to which comparative advantages can be identified and opportunities in these areas maximized will have important long-term policy implications both for the OPEC countries and theto rest the world. These relative cost of considerations remain be of sorted out. Moreover, duplication industrial •133 projects in different OPEC countries is not unlikely, and can lead to serious oversupply problems in world or regional markets. The importance of early formulation of a sound development strategy should not be underestimated for the momentum of plans and projects is likely to prove very difficult to reverse. Some countries, e.g., Indonesia and Nigeria, have important non-oil natural resources and large populations, potentially providing both ample labor and markets, and thus offer good prospects. In other cases, major industrial development will require larger markets than the national economies will provide. If successful, these efforts could have a significant effect on foreign exchange revenues and expenditures. An increase in production for export should increase imports of raw materials, and semi-finished products, while the increase in export earnings will expand import demand over a wider range of goods. Import policies may tighten, however, to protect infant industries, thus limiting absorptive capacity. The net effect will probably differ from country to country. While diversification of their economies to lessen the dependence on oil exports is an important goal of most of the OPEC nations, in some of them the energy sector offers the best potential for development, if outside technical and managerial assistance is available. Development of Venezuela's tar sands, Algeria's LNG processing and transport facilities, and ambitious petrochemical projects in a number of countries are areas in which Western technology and services will be needed. For some countries, like Indonesia, oil revenues may be a relatively minor factor in determining the course of development given its large population, its major development requirements, and low per capital income relative to potential oil earnings. Countries like Algeria, Iran and Nigeria will use oil and gas revenues in developing both the energy sector and in diversifying their economies. A potentially large, albeit currently meagerly employed outlet for surplus OPEC funds is in the non-oil exporting developing world which can accommodate substantial aid and investment flows. OPEC bilaterial aid commitments have been substantial—although concentrated geographically—but There arehave alsobeen smallconsiderably but growing more flowslimited. of investment disbursements funds to LDC's from OPEC countries. Many projects in the - 5 - primary sector may eventually be included in the OPEC investment portfolio, particularly as the more populated OPEC countries seek to secure long-term agricultural and raw material supplies. The importance of these flows to the less-developed countries will depend upon a complex of factors including the relative profitability of funds in the developed consuming countries and in OPEC domestic economies, the evolution of a greater willingness by OPEC financial managers to accept investment risks, the availability of technical services from the developed countries, and the emphasis OPEC countries place on aid as a political device. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar would appear to be the OPEC countries with the least likelihood of being able to utilize "efficiently" at home the major portion of their accumulated oil earnings over the next decade or so, given their high per capita oil revenues, small labor force and domestic markets, limited natural resources, and problems of wealth concentration. On the other hand, several OPEC countries will face revenue constraints some time during the next ten years, in the absence of dramatic changes in their export earnings. Algeria is already experiencing a significant current account deficit and a relatively large current account deficit is emerging in Indonesia. Moreover, these countries have not had the opportunity to build up sizeable assets abroad and consequently further rapid increases in their imports will depend upon their ability to obtain external financing. By the turn of the decade the net excess revenues of most of Imports Inwill 1980probably and 1985have disappeared. the remaining OPEC countries The country analyses which follow provide estimates of import levels of each of the OPEC countries for 1980 and 1985. These should be viewed as indicative estimates which will become increasingly precise with the passage of time. The point estimates from this paper are presented in the following table together with forecasts by the World Bank and the OECD. 9" - 6 OPEC Imports f.o.b. (billions of 1974 dollars) 1974 1980 1985 Algeria Ecuador Indonesia Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Venezuela Total 3.7 0.8 3.9 8.0 3.5 1.5 3.0 2.5 0.3 3.5 1.6 4.7 37.0 6.5 1.5 9.4 24.4 9.5 3.4 5.2 8.5 0.6 7.5 3.9 9.4 89.8 10..0 2..2 12,.3 32..0 14..0 6..4 6..5 12..6 0.,9 17..4 6..9 12..0 133.2 IBRD c.i.f. OECD f.o.b. 44 32 92.0 78.5 NA 114 The 1980 estimate of total imports of $90 billion would represent a real growth rate of 16 percent per annum from 1974. The estimate of $133 billion for 1985 imports represents a halving of the average growth rate to only about 8.0 percent in real terms, and corresponds closely to the growth in global imports from 19 68 to 1973. The 1980 estimates are appreciably higher than those of the OECD and the IBRD (after adjustment for freight and insurance), both of which divided OPEC into high absorber and low absorber groups for the purpose of forecasting. The 1985 estimates are substantially higher than the OECD's forecasts in absolute terms, but the percentage changes for the period are quite similar. The country analyses in this paper suggest that only Iran will have an average real rate of growth of imports of 20% or more in the period 1975-1980. Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Libya will have average real import growth rate of less than 10% a year from 1975 to 1980. During the period 198085 the real growth rate of imports will fall below 10 percent for all of the OPEC countries with the possible exception of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Only in Saudi Arabia will imports accelerate sharply from the pace of the previous five years, while the growth rates for Kuwait - 7 - and the Emirates remain relatively constant. Iran and Indonesia should experience a pronounced decline in import growth during this period. In identifying possible cases of revenue constraints on imports, the country analyses have assumed small annual increases in real oil revenues over present levels for OPEC as a whole, generally in line with aggregate estimates by the OECD. Differential growth factors were applied to individual countries, within a relatively narrow range to take into account cases of new and depleting reserves. A significantly different pattern would affect the import estimates for some countries. Employing the OECD's growth estimates for aggregate OPEC oil revenues, the import forecasts in the table above would imply a current account surplus for OPEC as a whole of $13 billion in 1980 (in 1974 dollars). The cumulative surplus over the period 1974-80 would total about $195 billion, also in 1974 dollars. -8 Iran The Government of Iran contemplates that it will be able to utilize fully its annual oil earnings in the very near future, and some Iranian observers are predicting that by 1976 or 1977 Iran will become once again a net importer of capital.* This assessment has been greeted with skepticism by a number of analysts, particularly in light of Iran's impressive current account surpluses over the past year and a half. An assessment of Iran's evolving payments position, however, must take into account the sizeable outstanding Iranian commitments which even if not fully implemented will entail major expenditures abroad in the coming years, particularly for purposes of foreign assistance and domestic project development. This situation and a desire to sort out domestic priorities have prompted the recent Iranian reassessment of its spending plans. The extent to which Iran's plans and commitments will be translated into actual imports will depend in part on the ability to alleviate bottlenecks which are becoming increasingly apparent in face of the dramatic surge in import levels since 1973. But revenue constraints might also arise. major problem is an inadequate transportation system where demurrage can run up to 60 days and railroads and warehouses become periodically overburdened. Another problem is the lack of skilled labor and a growing shortage of semiskilled or unskilled labor, which the Iranians estimate could total 700,000 workers during the present plan period. These two problems may not be as severe or as intractable as commonly believed. More effective utilization of port capacity in the past two years has enabled a 100% increase in the volume of cargo entering Iran's seaports. Moreover, expanded air freight and truck transportation has been used to alleviate the burden somewhat and use of these modes of transport should expand further in the coming years. More importantly, plans are underway to expand both port capacity and the domestic rail network. Port capacity should jump from 10 million to 18 million tons during Iran's current development plan period (ending March 1978), but continued expansion of the ports and domestic transport network will small be required if Iran is Eurodollar to continuemarket to expand * A recent borrowing in the by an its imports at a pace commensurate with the economy's growth Iranian bank should be viewed as a step toward familiarizpotential. ing the international financial market with Iranian paper and potential Iranian borrowers. - 9 - Despite the projected labor gap, the plan indicates that the labor force will increase by 1.4 million workers, or by nearly 15%. This would appear to be a conservative estimate. In the fourth plan period, the labor force in industry and services alone rose by 1.5 million people. In addition an increase in the low participation rate (29%), increased vocational training to upgrade the skills of the indigenous population and recourse to foreign labor could fill any remaining gap. Iran's current development plan (March 1973-March 1978) calls for expenditures of over $123 billion, with a foreign component of $95 billion. Foreign exchange receipts are estimated at $114 billion of which $102 billion would be derived from energy exports. The revenue projections may be somewhat high, particularly in the case of energy exports which at present prices and levels would be overstated by about 10%. On the other hand it is also unlikely that merchandise imports, which at the halfway mark totaled about $22-25 billion, will reach the $79 billion target. We would anticipate total merchandise imports of about $65-70 billion in current prices, assuming average annual import price increases of about 10% a year, with allowances for a reduction in transport costs as a result of the opening of the Suez Canal. This would imply a merchandise import level in 1977 of between $17 and $20 billion on an f.o.b. basis, in current prices or about $13 to $15 billion in 1974 dollars. The current account surplus would shrink to about $3 to $4 billion and could disappear the following year. These estimates would mean continued full utilization of port capacity. Looking beyond, it is clear that the Iranian authorities are determined to proceed with the rapid development of the Iranian economy, with initial emphasis on infrastructure and energy and then on industrial and agricultural development. Many extremely large projects are planned and a number of major contracts have already been awarded. These include, for example, $500 million for. modernization and expansion of the telephone network, rail contracts estimated at $1.5 billion, $250 million for a wood products complex, $550 - 10 " million for expansion of the Tehran airport and about $2 billion for nuclear power plants. Other projects in the billion dollar range are under consideration, particularly in the energy area. In addition, Iran also expects to expand considerably its military establishment and import payments for military equipment could reach $5 billion annually toward the end of the decade. Agricultural imports are also likely to be extremely high over the next five years, perhaps exceeding $2 billion a year by 1980. The extent to which Iran will be able to continue to increase imports at a rapid pace in the late 1970's will depend in large part upon its ability to increase export revenues. It is difficult to quantify the pace at which export capacity will increase as a result of Iran's industrialization efforts. The plan's estimate of $4.9 billion in non-oil exports over the five years ending March 1977, would imply a 10-15% annual increase during the second half of the plan period and does not appear to be unrealistic. It is even more difficult to assess the extent to which Iran's natural gas exports will be expanded. In Iranian Year 74/75 these exports amounted to about $200 million. Completion of the proposed Kalingas LNG plant and the expansion of the Iranian Gas Truckline could raise gas export levels to $750 million or so by the end of the plan period. Large Iranian gas reserves could enable Iran to expand sharply this level in the 1980's, if arrangements can be made to construct costly LNG facilities. In looking at Iranian import requirements over the next decade, we find that the experience in the 1960's demonstrates an especially close link between public and private investment and public consumption, on the one hand, and Iranian import levels, on the other. This relationship provides remarkably good estimates of the large increases in imports in IY 1973/74 and IY 74/75 and indicates that a 1% increase in the real value of 'these components will prompt a 1.2% increase in real imports. Using this relationship, based on plan targets, non-military imports in IY 77/78 would run about $11.5 billion in 1974 prices. We would expect that the growth of Iran's GNP would continue to taper off toward a more mature level in the Sixth and Seventh Plan periods. The 16.5% real growth rates expected in 1976-77 could decline to a 6% level by the mid1980 's which would imply a non-military import level of about $28 to $30 billion (in 1974 prices). A higher growth rate is probably not obtainable within the limits of present plans for expanding port capacity and the internal transport network even might at this level physical any significant of its military limits. and imports stretch capacitylevel beyond - 11 Saudi Arabia During the past year the marked increase in the efficiency of the Saudi Arabian Government to respond bureaucratically and administratively to developmental needs bodes well for Saudi Arabia's ability to spend a substantially larger portion of oil revenues in the coming five years than had been previously thought. The extraordinary sum of $144 billion in expenditures has recently been announced for the 1975-80 Development Plan. Progress toward this developmental goal will require Saudi Arabia to increase the efficiency of its air and sea ports, to attract skilled and semi-skilled foreign labor, to expand an already strained construction industry, and to upgrade the quality of the Saudi civil service. The economic development of Saudi Arabia will clearly be dependent on its ability to import. The Development Plan anticipates annual import levels rising by 30% a year. This is somewhat below the increases in Saudi Arabia's imports in 1974 and 1975, which are estimated at 57% and 43%, respectively. The present facilities in Saudi Arabia are not capable of handling the plan's target for import growth, but projects now either under active consideration of construction will gradually alleviate some of the more pressing bottlenecks to further rapid increases in imports. There is little question but that Saudi Arabia's requirements are sufficient to accomodate sharply expanding import levels at least in the short-term. Expenditures for large and costly capital projects as well as for defense material could easily increase the still low absolute level of Saudi Arabia's imports by 207o to 30%, a year if bottlenecks to delivery and implementation are reduced. There is some question, however, whether Saudi Arabia will take this course. The Government is clearly determined not to be stampeded into ill-conceived expenditures and is taking considerable pains both to set in place administrative machinery which can handle a sharp acceleration in investment activity and to assess carefully both the need and efficiency of the many (and occasionally conflicting) project ideas which have been proposed. Instead, we would expect the trend in Saudi Arabia's imports to follow a somewhat different course than trends in most of the other OPEC countries. Over the next decade a number of the other oil exporting nations may experience a continuous tapering off of import growth levels from the rapid Saudi Arabia, increases however, of 1974may andprove 1975.to The be roughly growth curve N-shaped, for -12 with relatively small increases in the near term, followed by significant acceleration a few years from now, as plans and programs become sorted out and major bottlenecks are breached. Thus, the volume of Saudi Arabia's imports might increase by less than 10% on average until the turn of the decade, when the rate accelerates sharply to perhaps 18 to 20% a year during the period 1980-85. Service payments over the next ten years, however, may well increase more rapidly than merchandise imports. Saudi Arabia's development plan earmarks almost $15 billion for the hydrocarbon industries, including a gas gathering system, five petrochemical complexes, three export refineries, an aluminum plant and a 3.5 million ton gas reduction steel plant. The $15 billion target does not include investment financed by the Saudi private sector or by foreign firms such as oil companies, which are expected to provide at least 307o of equity capital. These major industrial undertakings will be sited at Jubail, near the oil fields on the Arabian Gulf and at Yenho on the Red Sea. The implementation of these projects will rely on the ability of foreign joint-venture firms to develop their own supply lines and services and to recruit manpower first to construct these installations and then to operate them. The prospects are good that these projects will be on stream on schedule between 1978 and 1980. The largest allocations in the development plan are for defense and education; $24 billion and $22 billion, respectively. About $10 billion has been allocated to school construction while planned military construction amounts to only $3 billion. By and large, more of the defense budget can be expected to be utilized than the education budget, given the nature of the expenditures involved and the substantially different capacities of the two sectors. The majority of defense expenditures will be for sophisticated, expensive and mobil hardware. In addition, the Defense establishment already has relatively sophisticated infrastructure, ready access to educated manpower and independent means of facilitating imports. Other sectors on which the plan places heavy emphasis, also do not share the same capabilities of the defense establishment and will have greater difficulty in utilizing planned allocations. These have been set at $15 billion for urban development, $10 billion for water and desalination, $7 billion for health, $5 billion for social welfare, $5 billion for electricity, telecommunications. $2 billion for agriculture, and $1 -13 The principal constaint on Saudi Arabia's absorptive capacity remains the small manpower base and an extreme shortage of persons with technical skills. Unofficial estimates set the Saudi labor force (including foreigners) at 1.5 billion men. Traditional restraints effectively prohibit women from entering the labor pool, but this situation can be expected to change and with it Saudi Arabia's absorptive capacity. In order to meet the manpower requirements of major projects scheduled to be on stream by 1980, the total labor force will have to increase by more than 500,000, according to the Plan. More than 150,000 Saudis will enter the labor force before 1980, with the balance of the plan's manpower requirements satisfield by an increased level of non-Saudi labor. The port situation is also a major stumbling block. Large quantities of unclaimed and uncleared tonage clog transit sheds. Demmurage charges regularly range between 20-40%, as turn-around time hovers between 30-60 days. In 1974, about four million tons of general cargo valued at $3.5 billion were imported. Port development plans such as the addition of 20 new berths at Jidda and 16 at Dammam and the increasing mechanization of both ports are expected to raise Saudi Arabia's import capacity to 13 million tons a year by 1980. Contracts involving $1 billion for construction and equipment have already been awarded for the port expansion at Jidda and Dammam. The development of new ports, in addition to Jabail and Yenbo, is also being contemplated. Not all the solutions to port congestion are physical; improved port administration could make the ports more equal to the burden. A first step in this direction was taken by the Saudi Customs Service's recent decision to drastically cut-back the number of signatures required to clear goods from land, sea, and air ports. The Saudi construction industry is heaviliy overburdened. Last year's outlay of about $3 billion is projected to expand by 60% a year, a goal which is unattainable given present construction techniques in Saudi Arabia. But, the influx of more labor-saving, capital-intensive construction techniques can be expected to transform this sector into a responsive and productive industry during the next couple of years. The long-term prospects for the development for Saudi Arabia also depend on the improvement and ungrading of the Saudi administrative machinery. The Saudi administrative infrastructure is sometimes frustratingly thin, despite the large number of Saudi graduates returning from Western, mainly American universities. It is not uncommon for the .14 Saudi private sector to attract talented young Saudi bureaucrats and administrators from their government positions. Aware of the problem, the Saudi Arabian Government is developing incentives to attract and t keep that talent to respond to the administrative ne of the rapidly expanding economy. - 15 KUWAIT Because of the high level of Kuwait's oil earnings and projected income on foreign investment, its ability to import will, for the foreseeable future, be constrained only by what it can physically and economically absorb, by government policies which impinge on consumption, investment and imports, and by the comparative costs and advantages of domestic vs foreign investment. Kuwait's oil earnings are expected to continue to be well above its import needs despite a pattern of production cuts which had by mid-1975 brought output down to about 55% of its pre-crisis level. Kuwait's capacity to import is limited primarily by its small population (under 1 million) and land area and lack of non-hydrocarbon natural resources. The effect of these limitations is reinforced by various government policy decisions: restrictions on immigration to check the growth of the non-Kuwaiti population (now 55% of the total); unwillingness to facilitate investment projects of questionable economic efficiency or which would degrade the environment; and an unwillingness to lock itself into a higher rate of petroleum production that it will want to sell abroad. The requirement for 51% Kuwaiti ownership of businesses tends to discourage foreign investment and associated imports. The government's policy of restricting imports on competing products to encourage development of new, small industries will also inhibit the growth of imports over the longer term as the output of these new industries increases. Thus, the more rapidly Kuwait's imports of capital equipment increase, the more likely will there be a shift away from imports of selected consumption and intermediate goods. Although the government is prepared to continue to utilize a portion of its oil earnings for domestic investment and consumption, pressures for substantial increases in expenditures are not significant, given Kuwait's present high standard of living, extensive welfare services and well-developed infrastructure which have been achieved through judicious use of oil revenues in the past decade. The most important factor stimulating Kuwait's imports is the government's domestic current and investment expenditures. Earnings from petroleum production accrue directly to the government and contribute to disposable income in the - 16 private sector as they are spent by the government. The government's domestic spending has been directed toward transferring income to its citizens, toward providing a high level of public services and to a lesser extent, toward investment (16% of total domestic expenditures from FY 197174 1/). Kuwait's FY 1975 budget called for total domestic expenditures of about $3 billion, up 70 percent from FY 1974. Domestic expenditures in the FY 1976 budget, reflecting a balancing of needs and problems associated with rapid growth, are only 13% above FY 1975 levels. This approximates the more traditional pattern in the period FY 1971-74 when expenditures rose by an annual average of 16%. Public consumption will continue to account for a major share of total budget outlays - about 60 percent. Although a new development program has not yet been formulated, the 114% projected increase in capital expenditures in FY 1975, while not fully realized, and the 62% increase projected for FY 1976 (to over $800 million) indicate that the government will be encouraging a much more extensive domestic development effort than it has in the past. Development is likely to be centered in hydro-carbon-based, high technology, non-labor-intensive industries and in light industries which are not labor-intensive. Some $3 billion or more is expected to be earmarked for industrial projects over the next five years, including a very large LPG plant, petrochemical plants and expansion of refineries, fertilizer plants and the oil tanker and general cargo fleets. Public sector plans include $1 billion in new public housing, expansion of power and water desalting facilities, improvement and expansion of education, medical, transportation and communication facilities. Because of the lack of domestic resources, the import component for these projects will be very high. The projected improvement in Kuwaiti military equipment and facilities, which is expected to cost at least $1.4 billion by 1980, will largely entail imports from abroad. The rate of growth of Kuwait's imports in constant prices during the next ten years may be expected to range from 10% to 20% compared with an average annual increase of about 7% from 1968 to 1973 and estimated increases of 60% in 1974 and 40% in 1975 (in current prices). These estimates assume thatyears the growth in the 1/ Fiscal end March 31.government's domestic expenditures in the near term will be closer to the FY 1976 budget target than the FY 75 surge which resulted from - 17 _ the abrupt jump in oil receipts. The lower end of the range (around 10%) would reflect a continuation of present fairly conservative policies with respect to immigration and development, and assumes that development expenditures will rise more rapidly than in the pre1973 period. An average increase of 20 percent in imports would reflect a more dynamic government policy and a willingness to accept an increasing number of problems associated with sustained and fairly rapid development of the economy. A growth rate nearer the lower end of the range is likely in any event in the earliest and latest years of the 1975-1985 period. In the early years, if the government attempts to implement an ambitious development program it will take time to import or develop the necessary managerial and technical skills and organization. In the later years, military spending should decline after the present modernization of the military forces is completed, and a portion of the greater industrial output resulting from the new development projects will be in import substitutes. Based on an estimated 1975 import level of $2 billion, these growth patterns would lead to an import level of about $3-4.5 billion in 1980 and of $5-7 billion in 1985. 7 Nigeria Nigeria's imports have accelerated sharply over the past year, putting a great strain on ports and on available managerial and technical manpower. However, neither constraint is expected to continue for long, and balance of payments deficits are expected to develop by 1980, if not before. The government has liberalized imports during the past year in order to help control inflation and this is resulting in a substantial increase in consumer goods imports. At the same time, development spending is expected to increase as a result of the government's policy of meeting its manpower needs by undertaking crash training programs to the maximum extent possible and of relying on private foreign investment as necessary to organize and implement many of the larger and more complex development projects. Major programs are also underway to recruit foreign experts to fill planning and technical positions throughout the public sector. The revenue side of Nigeria's international accounts may, therefore, prove to be the chief constraint on imports by the early 1980's. With a large population (75-80 million), a low per capita income ($270), inadequate physical and social infrastructure, a need to improve the agricultural sector which provides income and employment for most of the population, and natural resources which include oil, gas, coal and tin, the scope for development and imports is great. Nigeria's Third Five Year Plan, covering the period from 1975 to 1980 calls for expenditures of $45 billion, compared with actual expenditures of $7.9 billion under the Second Five Year Plan. Of the $45 billion to be spent under the current plan, $30 billion is to be financed by government revenues - mostly oil receipts - and the balance from the private sector. Major emphasis will be on development of infrastructure (roads, communications, airports, and housing), the agricultural and rural sectors, and large scale industry to produce steel, pulp and paper, fertilizers, petrochemicals and refined petroleum products. The Nigerians will have to turn to foreign sources for much of the capital goods, consumer goods and services needed to fulfill the Plan. Imports under the Plan are projected to increase at an annual average rate of 20%, in real terms, to 95% of oil revenues by 19 80. While experience under the Second Five-Year would seem to point to nonfulfillment of Plan goals, revenue constraints have been perhaps temporarily peaking lifted by and 19 80accelerated - seem likely development as plans outlays which were - to <2<s? - 19 - have been implemented earlier finally get underway toward the end of the decade. The current plan envisions large accumulations of reserves during the early years which would be utilized to finance the deficits projected in the early 1980's. However, this goal is currently in jeopardy because the projected oil revenues for 1975, the first year of the plan, are running well below the target figure. At the same time, domestic inflation has continued to increase and may cause imports of consumer goods to increase more rapidly than projected. Furthermore, unless agricultural production is increased substantially, Nigeria, which has traditionally been a large exporter of agricultural commodities, may become a net importer as higher incomes are reflected in increased spending on foodstuffs. This shift is already occurring, causing more funds than projected to be spent on food imports. As a result of these factors, Nigeria's surpluses in the early years may prove to be smaller than projected in the Five Year Plan, deficits may develop before 1980 and accumulated reserves may be inadequate to finance the projected deficits in the early 1980's. Under current Plan assumptions, Nigeria's imports would be close to $9 billion by 1980 and as much as $11 billion by 1985 (in 1974 prices). However, if recent trends persist and consumption is not restrained, import capacity could be as much as $3 billion higher in 198Q and Nigeria's ability to realize the import level projected for 1985 would depend on its ability to mobilize sufficient external aid. -20 The United Arab Emirates The UAE's capacity to import is determined primarily by consumption and development activity stimulated by the domestic expenditures of the government of Abu Dhabi, which accounts for 85% of the oil receipts of the Emirates and finances most of the UAE budget as well as its own budget. The import level is also affected, to a lesser extent, by the general level of economic activity in the Persian Gulf region, since Dubai, the second most important of the Emirates serves as a large entrepot center. Abu Dhabi has projected a balanced budget (of about $3.3 billion) for 1975. The projected budget calls for a 50% increase in current expenditures over the 1974 level, a doubling of both Abu Dhabi's contribution to the UAE budget and its assistance to third countries, and a quadrupling of development spending. The balanced budget for 1975 is in marked contrast with Abu Dhabi's previous experience of governmental surpluses, when oil revenues outpaced expenditures. The disappearance of this budget surplus, which in 1974 was estimated to have been $1.5 billion dollars, together with drastic cutbacks in oil production in the earlier part of this year led to expressions of concern that Abu Dhabi was facing a financial squeeze. This concern has proven to be unfounded, as oil production once again picked up and actual foreign exchange disbursements lagged behind the expenditures committed in the 1975 budget. The expenditure targets, especially for domestic development, are not likely to be realized in 1975 due to persistence of the constraints which impeded implementation of Abu Dhabi's development activities even before the fourfold increase in oil prices. The most important of these obstacles are the shortage of skilled and unskilled labor, slow implementation of economic plans by a governmental apparatus beset by organizational and institutional problems and restrictions on foreign ownership of businesses. The latter discourages foreigners from taking too active and direct a part in the economy of Abu Dhabi. However, the estimated 50% increase in development expenditures which was achieved in 1974 in real terms indicates that the government has made progress in overcoming these problems. As a result of projects now under consideration (see below), government outlays are likely to reach the levels projected for 1975 within a year or two. It would appear that after 1977 further increases in budget expenditures ^ t e - 21 " for domestic development will have to be limited to the amount of any increased receipts from oil, gas, or investment, or to a reduction in actual disbursement of foreign aid commitments, unless the government is willing to engage in deficit financing, which the governments in the area have generally not been inclined, or pressed by their citizens, to do. The 1975 budget, which includes new projects with a total estimated value of well over $600 million, continues Abu Dhabi's pre-1974 emphasis on the development of infrastructure services while embarking on an extensive industrialization program. Abu Dhabi's plans include the following infrastructure projects: a $300 million expansion of its port, $30 million extension of its international airport, construction of a road to the Qatari border expected to cost over $60 million, construction of general hospitals ($80 million) and over $100 million in power and water projects. In addition, Abu Dhabi's industrialization program includes: the Das Island LNG complex, expected to cost $1 billion, a $40 million oil refinery, a $20 million cement plant, a $20 million flour mill, and construction of new hotels worth more than $70 million. Abu Dhabi has also indicated preliminary interest in an aluminum smelter, a small steel mill, petrochemical plants, and a large civic and sports center, although the magnitude of expected outlays has not yet been determined. Dubai has also embarked on a program to expand its trade and services capacities and to diversify its limited industrial base. Decision-making in Dubai is concentrated in the hands of Sheikh Rashid and a small group of advisors and, thus, decisions are made more expeditiously than in Abu Dhabi. Furthermore, Dubai encourages foreigners to help implement the economic decisions. Dubai has recently completed a $70 million deep water expansion of its port and has started construction of a $300 million dry dock. In addition it plans a $400 million LNG plant, a $125 million trade center, and a $70 million cement plant. The UAE (Federal) budget also provides a source of development expenditures, primarily for infrastructure projects in the poorer, non-oil producing Emirates. In 1974, the Federal Government spent about $40 million on development and has earmarked about $244 million in 1975 for development projects. The major projects are in the sectors of housing, and hospital construction; roads (approximately $50 million), ports, electricity and water .22 - desalinization. The UAE Federal Government also plans to expand its military forces and military imports are expected to run $100-$200 million annually over the next five years. In addition to expenditures by Abu Dhabi, Dubai and the Federal Government, the only other source of any major expenditure is the oil revenue accruing to the Emirate of Sharjah. Infrastructure projects totalling over $60 million as well as a $50 million expansion of its port facilities, extensive construction of hotels and a $25 million cement plant have been initiated there. With little domestic agriculture and industrial production as yet, the UAE economy is almost wholly dependent on the import of goods for consumption as well as for investment. Import levels have followed the pattern of the domestic expenditures of the government of the UAE, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and more than doubled from 1971 to 1973 and almost doubled again in 1974 to about $1.6 billion. Imports for 1975 are projected at about $2.4 billion or 47% over the 1974 level. While substantial increases (perhaps 20-30%) may continue over the next couple of years, as the UAE's new wealth reflects itself in increased development and private consumption, budget constraints coupled with domestic production of import substitutes can be expected to result in smaller increases in subsequent years. As a result, imports from 1975 to 1980 should increase by an average of about 15% per year, leading to an import level in 1974 prices of almost $3.9 billion in 1980. After 1980, as basic infrastructure requirements are satisfied, expansion of the military is completed, and the disruptions caused by rapid industrialization and competing development in the individual emirates begin to be felt, the small size of the population (about 350,000, the majority of whom are foreigners) and the barren land will limit import growth to about 10% a year. If oil exploration in the other Emirates is successful, however, these states can be expected to pursue an independent development effort and imports will continue to grow rapidly. A range of imports of $6-8 billion (in 1974 prices) is therefore possible by 1985. - 23 Iraq Iraq's pattern of foreign trade during this decade will be fashioned from an ongoing balancing of objectives and performance of the country's development plans. The financing requirements of large prospective levels of imports appear to be within the level of foreign exchange receipts that the plan will provide over the span of several years, but the surplus is not likely to be so large as to encourage grossly inefficient expenditure, nor oil revenues so predictable as to preclude financial stringencies over short intervals of time. The first years of the development program should see the implementation of many infrastructure projects that will ease bottlenecks to further development and, being capable of multiple productive uses, should prove to be economically worthwhile. The subsequent stages of development, and their success cannot be as readily assessed. The energy sector is being given high priority by the Iraqi authorities and further development of this sector is likely to result in a significant "recycling" of oil revenues into Iraq's energy development. Petroleum exports, currently about 2.4 million b/d is considerably less than can be realized with additional investment. Output is more or less restricted to current levels by the capacity of transit and terminal facilities. Heavy investment such as the Hoditha-Rumaila pipeline and new terminals on the Persian Gulf, due to be complete in the next year, should raise capacity significantly. Furthermore, there has been little exploration for oil in Iraq during the past decade, and it is believed that a $1.5 billion exploration program to be carried out during the next five years will substantially increase proven reserves. As part of a general pruning of its development plan, and in response to possible continued sluggish growth in the consumption of petroleum, Iraq recently lowered its targeted 1980 production capacity from 6.5 million b/d to around 4 million b/d, but this level could be exceeded since the change in target levels was not accompanied by corresponding changes in capacity expanding investment. Under the influence of expanded budgets and development plans, imports which tripled between 1973 and 1974 should continue to increase rather rapidly. The development budget for 1976-1980 calls for expenditures of $34 billion, or triple the previous five-year plan, of which $10 billion is targeted for agricultural development. J93 Industrial projects involving production of fertilizer and farm machinery are important steps toward achieving the goal of agricultural self-sufficiency. The plan also provides $7 billion for education, communication and transport which will expand both import and export capacity substantially. In particular ports will be expanded from a capacity of 1 million tons in 1973 to 2.5 million tons by 1980, while overland connections to a free port that Iraq has arranged to use in Kuwait will be improved to relieve any potential port congestion that might arise before the completion of the port expansion program. Many of the individual projects that make up the plan are drawn from a backlog of projects that Iraq has studied for years, and,considering the large number contracted for on a turnkey basis, the large majority should be completed according to schedule, significantly improving an implementation rate that only reached 65% during the 1965/66 - 1969/70 development plan. The course of economic development should affect the demand for imported goods in several ways. First, the demand for capital goods, most of which will have to come from abroad, should be sustained by that projected high level of capital investment. Second, to the extent that oil revenue is redistributed as disposable income to the private sector the demand for consumer goods, and consequently for imports of consumer goods will rise. We would expect, however, that government investment would continue to have a substantially greater impact on the demand for imports than funds transferred to the private sector, especially in light of the governments emphasis on import substitution for noninvestment goods. The government has influenced the level of private imports, both directly through its foreign exchange licensing procedures, and indirectly through the budget's influence on private disposable income, hence on the demand for goods. This influence was exercised forcefully during the period 1969/74 when, anticipating a fall in oil revenue, the growth in real private disposable income was completely stopped. In the future, the policy of promoting the production of import substitutes should restrict the level of imports without recourse to the traditional controls. The government has in fact begun to stimulate private demand by granting extensive tax cuts and expanding welfare programs. Since the current account is very close to being in balance, it is to be expected that temporary shortfalls in revenue will occur in the near future. Iraq's recent borrowing of will public rather $500 meet million expenditure. than such byfrom disrupting shortfalls the Eurocurrency by therecourse expansion market toof foreign suggests either capital private that itor .a - 25 - The expansion of various sectors of the economy should be sufficiently in tandem to avoid heavy reliance on external financing. Merchandise imports may be expected to reach, in constant 1974 prices, $9.5 billion in 1980, and $14 billion in 1985, while the current account balance which showed a small surplus in 1975 can be expected to gradually reach a surplus of about $4 billion in 1980 then to decline to a deficit of perhaps $1 billion in 1985 (both in current prices) .. Balanced economic expansion will result from an expected high rate of implementation of the current development program and an expanded program for 1981/85, while attaining a petroleum production level of 4.5 million b/d by 1980, and maintaining it at that level through 1985. The goal of agricultural self-sufficiency may not be met, but the growth of agricultural imports should stop. On the other hand, imports of raw materials and capital goods should increase markedly as private income and capital expenditures under the development plan increase. r^ - 26 Algeria The substantial current account deficit projected for 1975, despite continued restraints on consumption through strict controls on wages and nonessential imports, clearly demonstrates that the most significant constraint on Algeria's ability to import will be the availability of foreign exchange. As a result of a deterioration in the trade account and some prepayment of external debt, Algeria's net foreign reserves dropped by 75% from September 1974 through May 1975, to $428 million, or less than 2 months' imports at the projected 1975 rate. (A $350 million increase during June is attributable in large part to recent borrowings.) The crucial question is whether Algeria can obtain sufficient external financing during the next few years to enable it to implement its development program as scheduled and whether development of its gas reserves will proceed at a sufficiently rapid pace to eliminate the resource gap after 1980. Algeria's economic development program is dominated by intensive efforts to industrialize as well as to meet the country's substantial needs for food,imports of which are projected at over $1 billion for 1975. Key areas of effort include continued rapid development of basic industries (hydrocarbon, steel, fertilizers), accelerated growth of the processing industries (metals and construction materials) and increased production of consumer goods. The potential for absorption of imports in Algeria is significant given: 1) the need for infrastructure development as a result of the low priority which has been given to this sector in the past, 2) the large potential labor supply based on a large population, a rapidly increasing labor force and a high level of unemployment and underemployment which is estimated at 12 percent of the labor force, and 3) lack of additional land suitable for cultivation which means that a large volume of food imports will be required at least until 19 80 as Algeria attempts to increase the productivity of land now under cultivation. The Algerian Government has shown itself able to make decisions to commit funds for domestic development purposes. Actual expenditures under the 1970/73 Plan were 20% higher than projected although, as a result of delays and constraints in project preparation, adoption of new techniques, and unavailability of qualified manpower and basic raw materials, a backlog of projects remained at the end of the Plan period. - 27 - A The 1974-77 Plan calls for public investments of $27 billion, triple the total expended under the previous plan, with an import component of about $10 billion. In 1977, the last year of the present plan period, imports of investment and consumer goods are expected to reach a level of $8 billion under the original plan estimates. Difficulties in achieving these targets are likely, however, primarily because of an increasingly serious foreign' exchange constraint. The 1977 target would imply a current account deficit of $4-5 billion, the full financing for which may not be readily available. Another major factor in Algeria's evolving payments position is repayment of principal and interest on its public external debt, which is already running in the neighborhood of $600 million on an outstanding debt level of almost $3.5 billion. In order to avoid adding to its debt burden in the near future, Algeria is seeking longer term credit to cover present current account deficits. Inadequate infrastructure is emerging as another constraint. Unless greater emphasis is given to infrastructure which is to account for only 14 percent of total expenditures in the present plan - severe bottlenecks will emerge with consequent implications for the efficiency of industrial undertakings and import levels. The government must also train and educate its labor force to operate an evolving industrial economy. At present the lack of skilled technical and managerial workers causes serious problems which may ultimately result in investment slippages. Algeria's imports will probably be affected mainly by its ability to expand its gas exports and by the amount of external capital Algeria can obtain. If Algeria is successful in obtaining the external financing it needs, it should be able to maintain an 8 percent real growth in GNP - the 1974 rate - and based on present income propensities to import, the level of merchandise imports in 1974 prices would reach $6 to $8 billion by 1980 and $10.5 to $12.5 billion by 19 85. We would expect imports to be in the lower end of these ranges because of foreign exchange constraints, and even these levels will not be achievable without a substantial increase in export earnings. Qatar Qatar's use of its oil revenue to further the country's economic development will be restricted by its small population and lack of skilled indigenous labor force. However, imports of consumer goods, as well as intermediates for domestic production of consumer goods, should grow substantially. Capital investment is largely in the hands of the government, although the absence of comprehensive national income data precludes an accurate assessment of the size and the influence of private investment activity on imports. The major thrust of the development effort has been and will continue to be in the area of infrastructure facilities such as communications networks, power plants, and power transmission facilities. More recently, decisions have been made to undertake a number of industrial projects including an asbestos cement plant, gas-based petrochemical plants, worth over $200 million; a $200 million steel-rolling mill, and a $100 million natural gas liquefication and ancillary facility. These projects are not expected to come on stream before 1977, and some slippage in the time table can be expected. The development budget which targets nearly $500 million of capital expenditures for 1975/76 should be difficult to implement. This would represent an increase of more than 200% over the previous year's budgeted capital expenditure, which in itself represented an increase of over 130% over the 1973/74 budget. These increases are difficult to administer as Qatar does not have a centralized planning authority, and the administrative machinery for planning and executing government projects is still in its formative stages. As a result, actual expenditures are usually but a fraction of budgeted expenditures (only 65% in 1972). Efficiency is also hindered by public policy which guarantees jobs to all nationals and requires that middle and upper management slots in many of the proposed heavy industries be reserved ultimately for Qatari citizens. The industrial sector has grown substantially during the recent past. Annual cement production expanded by 21%, frozen shrimp, 15% and electricity generation, 13%. Moreover, new activities, such as the production of flour and desalinized water, have been introduced. There are indications, however, that further expansion will be limited. First, the shortage of labor in Qatar has resulted in the -29 _ use of substantial imported labor, with the result that Qatari nationals constitute only a small portion of the economically active work force. But industrial development in the countries which are important sources for Qatar's labor (for example, Iran and Oman) has restricted the flow of labor to Qatar and substantially increased wage rates. This trend should continue and labor should become increasingly scarce and expensive. Moreover, there is major concern over further dilution of the national character of the labor force which will be a restraining influence. Second, some key sectors have been neglected. Agricultural production, after a decade of flourishing growth, began to decline in 1972 as agricultural labor left the land for more renumerative employment in construction. Also until recently, when the government began to invest in industrial plants, private investment was channelled into construction and trade rather than into industry, because of the higher short-term profits in these activities and the minimal requirements for capital and technical know-how. In the past the public sector has redistributed a substantial part of its oil earnings through its current expenditures, and this policy should continue in the future. Public expenditures support a growing social welfare program. in the areas of housing, education and health. These programs, as they supplement the income of the private sector, will stimulate the demand for consumption goods and, with limited domestic production, the demand for imported consumption goods. A rough indication of the magnitude of income redistribution is the level of annual current government expenditures which in the past has amounted to 50% of the previous year's oil revenue. Last year, Qatar's balance of payments showed a current account surplus equivalent to 75% of its oil revenues, a historical high. This is a natural reflection of the difficulty of making prompt adjustments to the surge of oil revenues, but in the next few years the absorptive rate is expected to increase substantially. Qatar can be expected to increase its merchandise imports by 13% a year to about $600 million in 1980, and by 9% annually thereafter, reaching $900 million in 1985, (both in 1974 prices). jiri - 30 Venezuela The growth in Venezuela's imports will be subjected to financial constraints by 1978, when the current account, having shown substantial surpluses in 1974 and 1975, again moves into deficit. Oil revenues are expected to fall 12% between 1974 and 1975, and Venezuela planning authorities anticipate that they will continue to fall at a rate of 5% per year at least through 1980. These declines, resulting from a fall in oil production to a level that currently stands at 76% of capacity, are attributable in the short run to decreased demand for petroleum and perhaps to production rationing as well. The depletion of oil reserves, which has reduced productive capacity by 97> since 1973, will compel reduced levels of production in the long term unless new petroleum sources are developed. The ambitious development plans of the Venezuelan Government will require large amounts of foreign exchange. Investment in transportation, communication and power infrastructure is well advanced. The new Government of President Carlos Andres Perez has greatly accelerated long-standing programs for the development of Venezuela's steel, petrochemical and aluminum industries. Venezuela has nationalized the iron mines and will do the same with the petroleum companies during 1975. The Government intends to move quickly into new industries, such as aircraft and shipbuilding, and has budgeted large inincreases in credit to be extended to the agricultural and industrial sectors. Large new investments will be necessary in the petroleum sector, particularly in the Orinoco tar sands, if Venezuela is to continue to be a major petroleum producer in the future. Notwithstanding such hopes, the National Planning Office is just completing a Fifth National Plan which, according to the press, projects a gradual decline in the output of petroleum, which is to be offset by a general increase in the other economic sectors. Plans for capital intensive and highly sophisticated industries will require a level of managerial and technical skill that is very scarce, and substantial imports of capital goods. In light of the shortage of labor and apprehension over the disruption that sharp increases in o2£o - 31 demand can cause, a substantial part of the oil revenues in 1974 and 1975 will be held abroad to sterilize its impact on the domestic economy, but will be drawn down over time to finance the foreign exchange costs of the investment program. For 1976, recent estimates by the Finance Ministry call for an "austerity program" in order to minimize the impact of an estimated $1 billion decline in government income from the petroleum industry resulting from declining output as well as anticipated effects in the post-Nationalization period. The total ordinary budget for 1975 amounts to $6.6 billion, as compared to actual cash outlays of $5.1 billion in 1974 and $3.4 billion in 1973. Roughly 40 percent or $2 billion of the 1974 ordinary budget was devoted to domestic investment, but 47 percent or $3.8 billion is allocated to investment in the 1975 budget. The major persistent obstacle to long-term development in Venezuela, is the economy's lack of diversification and a failure to mobilize domestic resources outside the petroleum sector. Agriculture accounts for less than 5 percent of GDP and is technologically backward by Latin American standards. The manufacturing sector is high cost and highly protected. Skilled labor and managerial and scientific talent are in short supply despite very large educational expenditures over the past decade. Income distribution is extremely skewed. On the other hand, transport, communications, and power infrastructure are well advanced, and the natural resource endowment is exceptionally rich. Venezulan imports rose 65% in 1974 and should increase about 40% in 1975. But, as a result of an emerging foreign exchange constraint, the growth in imports should decline sharply, perhaps to 20% in 1976. The current account may go into deficit in 1977, and import growth may not exceed 10% a year through 1980. The severe financial constraints that will become apparent by then, and the completion of the first stages of the development program may further reduce the growth in imports to 5% per year during the period 1980-85. At these rates imports (in 1974 prices) will amount to about $9.5 billion in 1980 and $12 billion in 1985. - 32 - 9( Ecuador Ecuador should have the capacity to absorb oil revenues over the next ten years under any reasonable scenario of production and prices. Public sector infrastructure is undeveloped and the country is starting from a low level of economic development. Increasing imports of industrial inputs are easily absorbing Ecuador's foreign exchange at the present time. Ecuador's 1973-77 Development Plan presents a comprehensive strategy for maximizing the impact of petroleum revenues and achieving self-generating growth. The plan calls for: (a) expanding and improving the physical infrastructure by extending transportation, energy and other basic facilities into new potentially productive areas and improving such facilities as now exist, (b) expanding and improving the provision of services and technical inputs needed for raising productivity in agriculture, industry and supporting services and (c) expanding and improving the provision of education, training, health and other social services to upgrade the quality and raise the living standards of the labor force and the population generally. In order to implement the Plan efficiently, the Planning Board has been considerably strengthened with personnel and financial resources. Serious efforts are also being made to strengthen and accelerate the process of project preparation in the Planning Board and public agencies. Government planners have just completed an inventory of projects, and a Pre-Investment fund for financing pre-feasibility and feasibility studies through final engineering design has been established. Complementing these efforts, the Government he segregated from the budget the additional revenues accruing to the Central Government from the increase in petroleum prices. These resources, accumulated in the National Development Fund, will finance investment projects as they become ready, over and above those already included in budgetary appropriations. The Government plans to invest $1.7 billion during 1974-78, with emphasis on rural infrastructure projects and manpower development. Imports for the same period are expected to reach $3.8 billion of which close to $3 billion are expected to be producer goods—which should impact favorably on future growth rates. The progress of the country's growth has emphasized industrial development. In 1973 industrial production -33 - o^r^ increased by 8% and by 12% in 1974. Revenue increases from rising oil prices have enabled Ecuador to sustain real growth in manufacturing and agriculture. Availability of foreign exchange reserves has enabled Ecuador to decrease tariffs on imports of materials inputs and intermediate goods, encouraging domestic industrial growth. Imports of capital goods for industry increased 112% in 1974 over 1973's level. The principal item in this category of imports was industrial machinery which grew by about 120%. Construction has been another growing sector with an average annual growth in output of 9% over 1972-1974. At present the capacity for producing inputs for construction is severely limited. Demand for capital goods and intermediate inputs for construction has been met by a substantial increase in imports, doubling from 1973 to 1974. Government policy has been to subsidize imports of construction materials, especially cement and iron, in order to increase national production in other sectors. Total imports in 1974 increased by 72% over 1973. Although the annual rate of increase of imports should slacken in succeeding years, we anticipate no serious obstacles to utilization of Ecuador's oil revenues through the 1970*s. Tariffs have been reduced and the Government is offering expanded credit facilities for imports. Ecuador should have no port capacity bottlenecks to slow import growth. There are only two elements in Ecuador's development policy which signal a lower level of imports in 5 years time. The first of these factors is a conscious part of the GOE development goal. Ecuador's industrial development is primarily based on import substitution in the consumer goods sector. The country is beginning to enter a period of substitution of imports of raw materials, intermediate products and small capital goods and as Ecuador's industrial sector expands it will require lower levels of imports of many of these items. Imports of larger and more sophisticated capital equipment, however, should continue to increase at a significant pace in the foreseeable future. An associated second factor which will affect Ecuador's import trends over the next five or ten years results from emphasis on capital intensive and technologically led development. As a result of tariff and tax reductions benefitting capital inputs in industrial projects, industrial growth in recent years has been heavily labor saving. Employment has lagged behind the forecasts for the 1973-1977 Plan and underemployment is likely to remain a social problem - 34 - 3 9 in the coming years. Income will probably remain skewed in the absence of a major income redistribution effort. As a consequence, the growth in the internal market for consumer goor^s will be somewhat limited. Thus the growth rate of imports should average about 10% to 15% per annum, toward the end of this decade, and decline perhaps to about 8% a year during the first half of the 1980's. If the Government continues its conservationist poliq in petroleum production, it should be able to absorb revenues quite easily. But if oil production is greatly expandec' in the next five to ten years, revenues will probably far exceed the country's import level in the next decade. - 35 Indonesia c*/<£<f Indonesia's oil revenues are of relatively smaller magnitude than other OPEC members, comprising 18% of GNP ($19 billion in 1974). At the same time, with a per capita income of $150, the need for capital investment and the scope for growth is large. Accordingly, Indonesia should continue to have little difficulty in utilizing its oil revenues. Instead Indonesia will probably continue to face financial constraints as it seeks to enhance domestic economic growth. The small current account surplus in 1974 is expected to disappear in 1975, and a growing deficit to appear thereafter. To avoid this development the government hopes to double petroleum output by 1980, develop LNG exports, and to encourage the production of important import substitutes such as rice. The financial constraint may not be felt for several years if external aid and private capital flows continue at their current levels. The most important physical obstacle to import expansion is Indonesia's limited port capacity. Cargo handling capacities in almost all ports are relatively low, Equioment and navigational aids remain inadequate. Wide-ranging port projects which include, the design and engineering of new quays and warehouses, construction, dredging and dockyard rehabilitation, are to be completed in the next two to five years and should offer considerable relief to the physical limitation of ports. Administrative inefficiencies arising from poor organization and low levels of trained manpower have hindered the effective utilization of external assistance, and retarded the speed of development. In fact, Indonesia was unable to utilize fully available external aid in 1974, and the size of the year-end aid pipeline rose to an estimated $1.7 billion. Reforms involving Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned oil company, will interrupt the schedule of investment spending in a broad range of activities, until the reorganization is complete. Indonesia's inadequate infrastructure has hindered the growth of import substitutes. For example, fertilizer and insecticide distribution has been slowed by the irregular and expensive transportation system. The second five year plan has allocated 19% of its funds to the development of agriculture and irrigation, and 1570 to communication and transport related activities, which may aid in the development of import substitutes. - 36 - In the last three years, Indonesia's imports have nearly tripled, soaring from $1.7 billion in 1972-73 to an estimated $4.5 billion in 1974-75. During the next decade the largest increase in import volume is expected to come from capital goods imports necessary to fulfill the country's ambitious development goals. The share of imported consumer goods should fall from 31.9% in 1973/74 to about 17% in 1980 and perhaps 10% in 1985. The share of intermediate goods and raw materials should rise somewhat from its 1973/74 level of 37% to about 50% in 1980 and beyond. Merchandise imports in 1974 prices could reach about $9.5 billion by 1980, and around $12.5 billion by 1985, if petroleum revenues can be doubled through expanded output. Even then Indonesia will probably be facing persistent current account deficits over the next decade which will require continued flows of foreign aid. - 37 - J160 Libya The recent increases in oil prices have radically increased Libya's national income to $4,600 per capita (in 1974). The maintenance of a high level of investment, to ensure that these income levels are sustained in the face of depleting oil reserves, has resulted in correspondingly high levels of imports. The future growth of imports, however, may be restricted if inadequate infrastructure facilities — especially port congestion--and shortages of skilled manpower cannot be overcome. Programs are now in train to deal with these problems but in the near term they will remain important constraints to absorption. Gross capital formation has traditionally accounted for some 30% of GNP. This has been a major stimulant to imports as increases in capital goods imports have generally amounted to about 657o °f increases in gross investment. Substantial capital formation has also engendered a rapid growth in the non-oil sector of the economy, which expanded from 33% to 50% of GNP between 1970 and 1973. Libya is presently in the last year of its three year Development Plan (1973-1975). Expenditure targets of the plan were increased by over 120% to $8.5 billion in light of increased oil revenue. The plan continues the emphasis of previous plans on infrastructure development (1/3 of total outlays), with emphasis especially on port expansion, electrification, housing and public works. It also gives high priority (22% of total outlays) to increasing agricultural output in order to reduce Libya's reliance on food imports. The Plan's allocation to industry, which comprises 13% of total outlays, seeks to maximize the use of the domestic resource base and produce goods for which there is a large domestic demand. Thus, most of the investments are being put into plants for construction materials and food industries. Complementing the import substitution goals of Libya's agricultural and industrial development plans is the emphasis that the Plan gives to the expansion of the export-oriented oil industry and ancillary facilities. New projects either under way or proposed include: a $150 million desalination and electrical power complex in Tobruk--part of a $675 million plan to build similar complexes throughout the country; a $100 million oil refinery; > / a $230 million petrochemical plant; construction and expansion of cement plants worth over $150 million; a $240 million expansion of Tripoli harbor; new housing projects worth over $200 million; and a $100 million prefabricated housing factory. In addition, an experimental nuclear power plant, new roads, bridges, as well as clinics, schools and universities are either under construction or being planned. The revolutionary government has also included ambitious social goals in its development plan. It seeks to eradicate illiteracy by 1980 through increased outlays in education, especially in the construction of schools for children and illiterate adults, and universities. In addition, the government seeks to redistribute income to the low-income groups through increased taxation of the upper-income classes and increased government expenditures on health, education, housing and food subsidies. These programs are only in their initial stages and the problems they seek to alleviate are so large that Libya's consumption base will not be significantly widened in the next ten years in the absence of substantially larger expenditures than now contemplated. Implementation of the Development Plan has been hampered by the continued intensification of manpower constraints arising in part out of the government's agricultural support program which discourages migration from the farm despite the increased demand for non-farm labor engendered by the Plan. Thus, 1973 development expenditures fell 27% short of plan targets and it can be expected that total actual expenditures will fall short of the Plan's targets. Although Libya's small population of 2.3 million should encourage the use of capital intensive production, both skilled and unskilled labor are required at levels not presently available indigeneously. Only one quarter of the population is in the active labor force, due to both the age distribution of the population, the effects of the literacy campaign in delaying initial entry into the labor force and a very low (7%) participation rate for women. As a result, Libya has permitted substantial immigration, and the foreign component of its labor force has increased from 8% in 1971 to over 50% in 1975. Libya's program to develop its infrastructure and train its manpower will not have an immediate impact and the implementation of capital projects should become increasingly difficult during the near term. Shortages of labor will also put pressure on wage rates. These constraints could discourage the maintenance of investment at the traditional proportion of 30% of GNP. If this proportion should fall, the decrease in the level of capital goods imports would probably not be entirely offset by increased levels of consumer imports. Moreover, this flagging growth in import levels could be reinforced by the falling growth rates of GNP that are bound to result from a projected leveling off of real oil earnings. In addition to manpower and infrastructure problems and lack of resources other than oil, Libya faces a financial constraint on the revenue side in the absence of new oil discoveries. Although it had a $2.3 billion current account surplus in 1974--primarily due to the difficulty of making prompt adjustments to the surge of oil revenues, Libya's strict oil conservation policies will bring its current account balance to near equilibrium within a few years and make it a net importer of capital in the longterm. Libya's concern for its depleting oil resources, which accounts for 987> of its export earnings, is reflected in the heavy investment in oil exploration and in the emphasis in the development plan on import substitution and export diversification. Since 1973, imports have increased.in nominal terms at a rate of about 35% a year with imports in 1975 expected to reach about $4.1 billion. The concentration on developing improved infrastructure facilities and a wider industrial base should result in an annual growth rate of about 870 during the next few years to a level of $5.2 billion in 1980. Between 1980 and 1985, we can expect the annual growth rate of imports to fall to about 5% as domestic industrial production replaces imports and increased capital investment slackens off. Thus, in 1985 we can expect an import level of $6.5 billion. These levels would suggest a current account position that will be approximately in equilibrium in 1980, perhaps moving into a deficit of about $2 billion by 1985. - 40 - Policy Implications Objectives The consumer countries have several basic policy objectives in their relations with OPEC countries which would seem to include: a) Encouraging establishment of an OPEC oil pricing policy which would simultaneously permit a more efficient allocation of world resources and allow the OPEC nations to obtain a reasonable return on their major resource. b) Avoiding fruitless confrontation which would create greater instability in the Middle East, increase the friction between consumers and producers in general, and render the economic objectives of both the consumer countries and OPEC difficult to acheive, and c) Ensuring that current and prospective OPEC oil earnings have minimum disruptive effects on the world economy and its growth prospects. The rise in oil prices has increased OPEC claims on the consuming countries' goods and services without increasing OPEC provision of real goods and services. These claims may be exercised in two ways — OPEC importation of goods and services, or purchase of financial assets, — but each case will represent a loss in well being to the oil consuming countries. The first policy objective addresses itself to the attenuation of this burden. The discussion of OPEC absorptive capacity touches largely on the last two policy objectives, through its determination of how rapidly the transfer of real resources from the consuming to the producing countries will proceed. It must be stressed that, in the face of continuing high oil earnings, satisfaction over the lower than anticipated OPEC current account surpluses which have been evolving indicates a preference for substantial OPEC imports over OPEC foreign investment — that is for the rapid transfer of real resources - 41 This preference, however, involves a number of complex considerations which do not yet appear to have been adequately explored. A number of arguments have been posited in support of each option, but many of them fail to hold up under intensive scrutiny. A brief discussion will help sort through the various policy considerations that spring from the absorptive capacity issue. From this discussion the conclusion emerges that attempts to influence the timing of the flow of real resources to the OPEC countries should be discouraged and that this would best be left to market forces. Level of Transfer of Real Resources If the obligations that the consuming countries have incurred are to be honored, there will eventually be a transfer of real resources. The choice is to transfer now or to transfer over the future. The quantity and value of the resources transferred to the OPEC countries will naturally depend upon the nature of the claims they hold, the productivity of capital and the course and anticipation of future prices. That is to say that the real resources transferred will be the same at any two dates if the rise in export prices is sufficient to offset the pecuniary return on the obligations held by OPEC. Even though anticipated general price movements will be a determinant of pecuniary return, recent history suggests a divergence between general and export price increases, and indicates a less than complete interest rate accommodation to the rate of inflation. Accordingly, investment of OPEC revenues abroad could result in a lower total transfer of real resources to OPEC over time. The oil producing countries, however, are not likely to be indifferent between transferring the same quantity of goods at two dates. First, goods transferred now could be put into productive use, and so generate more goods than if the transfer of real resources was deferred (these might come through additional trade with consuming countries). Second, the present valuation of future consumption is likely to be lower than that of current consumption. Capacity to Transfer Real Resources Deferred transfer would in some respects, give the consuming countries greater flexibility to determine the conditions upon which the transfer would take place. This flexibility however may not lead to formation of a greater productive base from which to produce goods for future transfer. Any change in the level of productive capacity from what it would have been in the absence of real resource transfers will depend not only upon the investment propensity of the consuming countries' private sectors, but also upon government policies of the consumer countries. First, the availability of financial capital does not automatically ensure increased demand for investment goods. The rate of capital formation will be sensitive to the level of idle capacity and this in turn will depend upon government policy directed toward influencing the level of economic activity. It will also depend on the sources that private firms traditionally employ to finance capital expenditures, particularly for those firms which rely on internally generated funds. Second, exports directly and through the multiplier effect also generate income that can finance investment activity. Moreover, exports represent additional effective demand that will result in increased capacity utilization which in turn will spur demand for investment capital. Finally, there is a fundamental question of whether an expansion of capacity requires foreign capital or income generated from abroad. This might be as readily achieved by appropriate domestic economic policies to influence the size of the domestic capital stock and the uses to which it will be applied. The Short Term Financial Problem While OPEC investment in the industrial countries would help increase their capability to eventually redeem OPEC claims through increases in productive capacity, questions have been raised concerning the short-term adjustment to higher oil prices. Indeed, the desire in some quarters to see rapid utilization by OPEC of its oil revenues has stemmed at least in part from a fear that high oil prices would create major recycling problems. Specifically, this would have resulted from 1) the inability of Western financial institutions to perform their intermediation function because of the sudden surge of liquid funds from the OPEC countries and/or 2) an insufficient flow of such funds to Europe — the major oil importing area of the world — on reasonable terms, thus forcing severe domestic policy adjustments. These fears have proved unfounded on the basis of experience to date, and indeed there should have been no presumption that the necessary recycling efforts would be more difficult to accomplish than a sharp sudden expansion J?7JL - 43 of exports of a magnitude necessary to cover the potential deficit, nor that financial intermediaries should prove to be the weakest link in the chain of transfers of claims. There was in fact no alternative to recycling in the very short term given the abrupt and massive shifts brought about by the increase in the price of oil. To be sure the adjustments to higher oil prices have been imperfect, but it is highly improbable that export expansion to OPEC countries would more perfectly match the pattern of increased expenditures for imported petroleum in the short-term. During the past year the OPEC countries have demonstrated portfolio management objectives similar to most other investors. In particular, they have recognized the desirability of risk spreading both among geographical areas and types of investment assets. Moreover, the intermediary function performed by financial institutions in the postwar period, through a well established institutional framework and open capital markets, has traditionally assured a high degree of mobility of capital and last year was no exception. As a general proposition financial adjustments have continued to be executed by the market's rearrangement of interest rates, reconciling differing preferences for financial instruments as well as adapting the capital structure of financial institutions to new needs of the market. The creation of the OECD Solidarity Fund together with other existing arrangements will, of course, serve as supplements to the private market mechanism as each country attempts to adjust financially to higher oil prices. Transfers During Cyclically Slack Periods It has also been suggested that increases in exports to the OPEC countries would clearly complement domestic policy in periods of economic slow-down, but the practical case for encouraging transfers of real resources during such cyclically slack periods is weak. In the first place, the absorptive capacity of OPEC countries is the main determinant of the rate of the export response to any policy shifts in the consuming countries, and because of the uncertain knowledge of this structure, attempts to manipulate OPEC demand would probably be unsuccessful. Second, it should not be forgotten that in many cases increasing slackness may reflect an attempt to bring inflation under control, so that this goal could be compromised were export demand to increase. But there are also problems even where this is not the case and where an expansion of foreign ^ - 44 - demand would complement domestic economic policies. As a general matter, the tempo of expansion of both foreign demand and domestic supply is extremely uncertain. Increased utilization of capacity, spurred by export orders, can be accomplished only after a lag. Above and beyond this is the fundamental question of whether export led growth is essential to economic recovery or whether domestic policy instruments are adequate to insure recovery without the need to transfer real resources abroad. There are other major problems as well. At some point, an expansion of domestic and foreign demand can quickly outstrip improved supply conditions and the pressures to curtail dynamic export markets would begin to mount. A policy of turning on and turning off exports to OPEC through the course of cyclical swings is not a viable long-term proposition. Yet, if not curtailed these exports put added pressures on domestic economies in times of total excess demand. Moreover, the effects within an economy of a cyclical slowdown are uneven. OPEC nations cannot be expected, however, to confine their purchases to the most depressed sectors in a cyclically slack period. Indeed their demand for imports from these sectors may be minimal or nil. If transfers are delayed, the resulting infusions of OPEC financial capital might alleviate some of the financial stringencies that firms suffer during contractionary periods. But the firms in greatest need are generally those with the weakest capital structure, or those who find the cost of borrowing high relative to the return on their enterprise. It is doubtful that investments in failing firms would prove to be a very attractive proposition to OPEC countries. It is also doubtful that substantial OPEC funds would be invested at lower than market rates of return. There is the general question, moreover, of whether marginal operations can be sustained through special and, perhaps, one-time arrangements with OPEC countries. Absorption and Oil Price Policy There is also likely to be a significant relationship between the absorption rate of OPEC countries and their policies with respect to oil production and oil prices. In the case of countries with relatively low levels of oil reserves and revenues, successful implementation of domestic development plans and substantial utilization of oil revenues for domestic purposes are likely to result in a - 45 decision either to seek higher oil prices or to increase oil production. The choice will be influenced by 1) the ease with which either course of action can be taken, 2) assessments of the supply and demand elasticities for oil over the short and longer terms, and 3) the relative importance attached to protecting long-term interests by accepting short-term discomfort. The experience to date has suggested that when faced with revenue constraints, individual OPEC countries are more likely to opt for efforts to maintain production. It is not clear, however, that this process can or will continue, particularly if such action would represent a clear break of OPEC solidarity. But it is also not clear to what extent those countries whose revenues substantially exceed domestic needs are prepared to reduce further their own level of production to sustain oil price levels for the benefit of the other OPEC countries. In the case of countries with relatively high levels of oil reserves and revenues, their continued inabilty to utilize a substantial proportion of oil receipts for domestic development purposes, and the consequent recycling of substantial levels of funds for the use of the consuming countries, might also prompt them to reassess their policy. The options open in this situation are the reverse of the revenue constraint case. Oil production that results mainly in the build up of assets abroad may suggest to individual OPEC countries that either production should be reduced or that some price relief should be extended for the sake of the interests of the rest of the world. Experience to date, however, indicates that the latter trade-off has unfortunately not dominated the thinking of these few producers. The present situation, of course, contains elements of both of the cases described above. Compatibility has been found in a combination of price and production cutbacks. The question, of course, is whether this pattern can or will be perpetuated if the disparities between revenues and need continue and/or accentuate, or whether different OPEC policy responses will evolve. The outcome will naturally depend upon a number of factors including the ability of the OPEC countries to use their oil revenues for domestic development. Constraints on Policy Actions By Consumer Countries Should consumer countries decide to emphasize either exports to OPEC countries or OPEC investment in the industrial world, the question becomes whether the consumers can influence this course of events, and, if so, how. There are obvious problems and pitfalls. Many governments in one degree or another must operate in an environment of both significant private sector control of, and interest in commercial exchanges. Governments in their efforts to spur exports or investment inflows must recognize the limitations imposed by both of these facts. It is difficult to restrain or prevent firms' efforts to maximize commercial exchanges that will directly benefit their shareholders and communities. Conversely, it is difficult to persuade firms to commit themselves to unprofitable operations. Policy decisions which would attempt to channel oil revenues in a particular direction risk preferential or exceptional approaches and a departure from basic policies. Development of OPEC industrial capacity will almost certainly enhance desires for preferential access to consumer country markets. We have already witnessed some pressure in this direction. Growing OPEC investment abroad, on the other hand, could lead to pressures to limit such investments in additional sectors and/or conversely may require special inducements. All of this would further distort the world's economic structure. Another factor which the consumer countries must guard against is a possible tendency toward a competitive race among them for OPEC markets or investment capital. While such promotional efforts would not necessarily render longterm balance of payments adjustment within the consumer bloc more difficult if exchange rates remain flexible, the end result could be an even greater transfer of real resources to OPEC countries, since increased costs from exchange rate adjustments might not offset the savings to OPEC from subsidies, etc. Moreover, economies heavily reliant on specific foreign markets are no less vulnerable to them than are the countries heavily reliant on specific sources of oil. Conclusion There are, of course, factors other than those discussed above which bear on the real resource transfer problem, but most of the main economic considerations have been covered. These would suggest in varying degrees of force that a policy of permitting both merchandise and capital flows to be determined primarily by economic forces would be the most prudent course for the consumer countries. The emphasis individual OPEC members will place on domestic versus foreign investment will shift over time according to their investment plans. The diversity of such plans among - 47 - J9C the OPEC countries, and the highly uncertain manner in which they will be carried out, suggest that the most flexible economic institutions, to wit free markets, are best adapted to the orderly transfer of real and financial resources. A plethora of nonmarket arrangements in such a fluid situation is almost certain to hamper effective adjustments among the industrial countries. Beyond this, emphasis on economic efficiency will help ensure producer country investment in areas where their comparative advantage will be the greatest. The same criterion would ensure a substantial flow of investment capital to the West, both directly and indirectly. World income would of course be maximized, and the burden which oil price increases have imposed on the consuming countries would probably be eased. Flexible policy instruments will also enable consuming countries to take maximum advantage of the return flow of OPEC capital. Annex 39? Trends in the OPEC Current Account Position Developments in 1974 The most recent available data indicate that the OPEC current account surplus in 1974 reached $59 billion, excluding government grants (when oil receipts are recorded on a payments basis). This is somewhat lower than a number of initial forecasts made last year which anticipated surpluses in the range of $65-70 billion. The initial forecasts did not fully anticipate the extent to which OPEC import demand would respond to the high level of oil earnings. It became apparent, however, over the course of 1974 and early 1975, that estimates of growth of imports were too low, and many projections were revised accordingly. Comprehensive, accurate import data remain unavailable. The statistical reporting systems of some countries do not pick up all imports and the true current account position of the OPEC countries may never be known. Presently available data including export data for the major industrial countries suggest that the increase in OPEC imports last year was approximately 80%. Price increases on average accounted for somewhere around 25% of this increase. OPEC's non-oil exports also rose sharply, by nearly 40% above the level of 1973. The major factor was the boom in commodity prices, although for Indonesia which accounts for 40% of all OPEC non-oil exports, volume increases were also large. We would estimate that the deficit on services rose somewhat last year to $4.8 billion. Investment income increased sharply as a consequence of the build up of assets abroad, but this was more than offset by freight and insurance payments associated with the dramatic jump in OPEC imports, as well as an increase in workers remittances, particularly, in the Persian Gulf countries. The balance of payments data for 1974 show striking contrasts between the OPEC members. Three countries, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait, account for almost two-thirds of the OPEC surplus. Of the remaining eight members only Nigeria, Venezuela and the UAE had significant surpluses. The dissimilar financial accumulations were primarily the result of different levels of oil production. Although imports increased markedly in all OPEC countries, there were - 2significant differences among them. At the extreme the imports of Iraq and Iran increased nearly 200% and 125% respectively, while the imports of Libya and Nigeria rose less than 40% in nominal terms. Outlook for 1975 The OPEC current account surplus for 1975 should be down sharply from last year. This should result from further large increases in imports, but much smaller increases in oil revenues due to cyclically depressed demand in the industrialized countries during the first half of 1975, stock drawdowns, a mild winter and some demand response to the oil price increases. Although the value of imports should increase by about half last year's rate, a sharp decline in import price increases to about 12% will mean that the reduction in real terms will not be as great. We would also expect to see little change in the services deficit this year. Investment income will continue to mount, but so will freignt and insurance payments. Workers remittances, travel expenditures and payments on government debt will continue to be substantial and together will be nearly as large as either investment income or freight and insurance payments. A light reduction of about $300 million in the services deficit is projected. The distribution of the surplus among the OPEC countries is likely to become even more.skewed during 1975. We would expect the share of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait in the total surplus to grow at about 80%. Algeria should emerge as the first OPEC country to run a sizeable deficit, as it finances its expanded import program through international borrowing. Surpluses should disappear for Ecuador and Indonesia, and the current account of Iran and Libya are likely to approach near equilibrium positions. OPEC Investible Surplus 1973 ($ million) Algeria Ecuador Oil Exports (Gov't Take) 1000 Non-Oil Exports 360 Imports F.O.B. -2060 Services and Private Transfers -170 Invest Surplu -870 100 310 -460 10 -40 Indonesia 1200 1610 -2410 -750 -350 Iran 4500 590 -3600 -400 1090 Iraq 1700 110 -1160 -180 470 Kuwait 1900 230 - 920 310 1520 Libya 2300 - -2200 -700 -600 Nigeria 2400 620 -1780 -980 260 400 10 -180 - 90 140 Saudi Arabia 5500 20 -1800 -600 3120 United Arab Emirates 1200 40 - 860 - 90 290 Venezuela 3000 375 -2820 -690 -135 25,200 4275 -20,250 -4330 4895 Qatar Totals August 29, 1975 \ OPEC Investible Surplus 1974 ($ million) Services and Private Transfers Investible Surplus Oil Exports (Gov't Take) Non-Oil Exports Imports F.O.B. 355 -3710 60 405 Algeria 3700 450 - 790 110 500 -50 Ecuador 2200 -3890 -1480 230 3400 -8000 -820 Iran 800 10,680 18,700 -3460 -420 Iraq 150 1970 5700 425 7335 8000 -1480 Kuwait 390 6200 40 -3000 -700 2540 Libya -2490 -740 Nigeria 850 5220 7600 - 270 - 50 Qatar 10 1290 1600 25 -3530 -295 20,800 24,600 -1600 - 60 United Arab Emirates 20 4360 6000 -4660 -620 Venezuela _375_ 3995 8900 94,900 5665 -36,880 -4750 58,935 Indonesia Saudi Arabia OPEC Total i I August 29, 1975 ^T f f OPEC Investible Surplus 1975 ($ million) Oil Exports (Gov't Take) Non-Oil Exports Imports F.O.B. Services and Private Transfers Algeria 3630 350 -5670 -300 Ecuador 375 550 -930 -90 -95 3675 2380 -4680 -166C -285 Iran 19,875 1000 -10600 -660 9615 Iraq 7580 200 -6600 -670 510 Kuwait 7890 530 -2100 805 7125 Libya 5150 100 -4100 -500 650 Nigeria 6715 900 -5100 -610 1905 Qatar 1755 10 -380 -70 1315 26,685 30 -5660 -100 United Arab Emirates 6475 10 -2200 -70 4215 Venezuela 8320 510 -6510 -550 1770 98,125 6,570 -54,530 -4.475 Indonesia Saudi Arabia OPEC Total Investible Surplus -1990 20,055 45,690 August 29, 1975 Ul JS~ UNIT13L STATES DEPARTMENT CF THE TREASURY Washington, DX, PRESS CONFERENCE Hald by: EDWIN H. YEO Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs 2s30 p.m. Friday, September 5, 1975 Meeting Room 4 Sheraton Park Hotel U&£'hincn;oyi, D.C. STAFF PRESENT LISLE WXDMAN CHARLES A. COOPER SAM CROSS JOHN BUSHNSLL INTRODUCED BY; JOHN P. PLUM The .above-entitled press conference was convened,, pursuant to notice, at 2s30 p.m.. JS3 MR. PLUM: This is Mr. Yeo. UNDER SECRETARY YSOs Good afternoon. everyone have their headphones on? clothes without the headphones — Does I feel almost without I became quite used to them after a week of very hard work. In my opening comments, X have a few personal reactions, One, I think it was a week of accomplishmentr a week in which things were done, not for the sake of simply doing, but good agreements were reached which involved soxfle give on a variety of fronts by a variety of parties. It produced agreements that were for the overall good, and also underlined the fact that these fora not only involve useful discussions, but also present the framework in which decisions can and are made* X have been impressed personally by the high degree of cooperation, the forthcoming spirit which characterized our conversations, and the close personal relations of the participants, and the way in which those relationships contributed to the resolution of several important and difficult issues. Those of you who attended our pre-meeting press conference, I am sure were gratified that the Interim Coramittee did involve itself with economic discussions. Economic discussions were very much on the agenda, and I can tsll you that they were meaningful discussions. As a personal proposal, I think that the Interim Coasaittee8 s activities in the future might well concentrate in part on serving as a vehicle, a framework for continuing economic discussions. If you look at the history of the Interim Committee, examine it, this is really what it was developed to do. It does not represent a cop out in terms of hard issues, because as you saw, hard issues were discussed parallel with economic issues. And I am not even sure that it is fair to say that economic issues are not hard issues, hard in terms of meaning, and hard in terms of resolving various points of view. The Interim Committee, in terms of the troika of issues before it, has one issue leftf the exchange rate issue, which we are very hopeful will be able to be resolved? that the Committee will be able to resolve at its January meeting. Beyond that, X would suggest that its original mandate to serve as a vehicle for the exchange of economic viewpoints be acted upon and be taken up. And that is one of the ways, one of the directions in which the Interim Committee could evolve. That is all I have in the xtfay of an opening statement. I will be happy to try to answer your questions. QUESTION? Mr. Secretary, there has been sor.te concern expressed about the wild volatility of exchange rates 2& especially between the dollar and the German mark. The economists can say it has little economic meaning. Do you anticipate that the U.S. government will attempt to moderate these fluctuations in the future? UNDER SECRETARY YEOs The exchange rate mechanism not only reflects economic developments on the real side, but it also reflects economic developments on the financial side. I think that that is a very important distinction. It is quite true that broad measures of economic developments do not seem to have* the same variability as rates, even though in recent months, the degree of variability in rates has been reduced substantially, reflecting a growing equilibrium in the real sector. After ten years of inflation, we have one of the financial legacies of such a period, which is an accumulation of short-term assets, and short-term claims. Inflation is financed in the short end simply because potential holders of assets have a reduced appetite for holding long-term assets. As the result of financing inflation in terms of short-term finance and the short-term areas of the markets, we have accumulated a substantial quantity of short-term funds, assets., claims that move very quickly. This is one of the factors in addition to underlying disequilibrium on the real side, that has been responsible for the variability in rates that has occurred over the last several years. It is also one of the factors that increases our own respect for the elasticity and flexibility of a voluntary system under which those that wish to peg, may peg; and those that wish to float, may float. Those capital movements, capital movements being one of the euphemisms, shifts of flows of funds, are very large and very powerful, and are best absorbed within the elasticity of a flexible system, a voluntary system where we are able to float and others are also able to float. QUESTION: Mr. Yeo, from what you have just said, could one, in fact, conclude that you rejected the suggestio by Mr. Alfred Hayes in his lecture earlier this week? Mr. Zijlstra, and also the IMF has said, as well as I think the Germans and several others, that there is a need for greater management of floating rates? U&DER SECRETARY YEOs Our own view is that we feel that intervention is necessary only under conditions in which markets have become disorderly. As a fellow who came out of the market, I can tell you, you will have as many definitions of disorderly as you have for disciplines. Our definition is a limited definition, and it means a situation in which markets are not functioning well, rather tha.n the particular rate movement associated with markets 6 at any given time. The way to reduce rate volatility in our view is to move respective policies in the direction of stabiliza tion of domestic economies. And through that mechanism, through that effort, we have the greatest promise of stabili The reciprocal of that is a great respect on our part for the variability of economic developments during a period such as we are in, and the size and power of flows of funds that have accumulated over ten years of financing inflation. So that I would not want to be in a position of rejecting? X rather would reaffirm our own view as to the desirability of intervention. QUESTIONS You belong to the Interim Committee, and you indicated the Interim Committee might be on a permanent basis, be a place where other economic issues could be discussed. Would you think that the Interim Committee could discuss the interest harmonization between Europe and the United States, or such other items? UNDER SECRETARY YEOs I would not want to be in a position, having made a recommendation that we would have general economic discussions, to set forth a proposed agenda I think that there is a difference between consultations and the type of activity that you describe. So that I can be very clear, 1 am proposing consultations and discussions. QUESTIONS From developing countries, when does the United States propose to reach the figure they wanted to reach by 19BO? The developed world is supposed to transfer one percent of its GNP to the developing countries When does the United States propose to reach the target? UNDER SECRETARY YEOs T&e formula to which you are referring was a formula agreed to by some countries, one percent of the GNP of the United States. The United States has not agreed to that formula or any other formula. We look at each program on a program-by-program basis. QUESTION: Considering the divergence between views Mr. Simon has outlined and the French have outlined on rates, it is difficult to see what the basis is for hope that agreement to compromise could be reached in January, Can you tell me why you are hopeful that this could be worked out by January? UNDER SECRETARY YEOs I can't tell you precisely why I am hopeful, but X can point out that many people had the same general view regarding gold and quotas ten days ago. X would not underestimate the sense of changethe harmonization of attitudes if not ideas, that has characterised the last ten days. We do not go into this position, into this period that is coming up, the remainder of this year, in a dogmati or for that matter, doctrinaire frame of mind. We have our ideas, we have expressed our ideas, which we are really 3 obligated to do and want to do, and there have be&n expressions of other ideas, differing points of view on the same subject. If ?;e all agreed, there would be no negotiations. But that is really the premise on which I expressed my hope for results by January. QUESTION? Do you think that the proposal outlined by Dr. Witteveen for suspending the present articles and running the exchange rate system under a schedule is a basi for confidence? UNDER SECRETARY YEO: We think that it is certainly an idea that ought to be considered. There are other possibilities, and it is certainly one avenue that will be explored. QUESTION: Will the central banks purchase gold when the Treasury and IMF sell gold? UNDER SECRETARY YEO: The articles of the IMF are still in force on the subject until amended. That is our view. X might say something about the agreements or. gold. These are overall agreements. There is some very intense and very necessary staff work that is ahead which is necessary to get these agreements implemented. And I am not going to attempt to pre-empt that staff work or pose as a legal expert on some aspects of the implementation of these agreements. 9 QUESTION: I have th^ impression — correct vie if X am wrong — that France and South Africa are both deligh with the result of the interim agreement on gold. X understand, from what Mr. Simon has said, that similarly, the United States is delighted with the agreement. Now, when both parties are in agreement, does that mean that gold in effect will be fephased back into the monetary system, or gold will be phased out of the International Monetary System? UNDER SECRETARY YEOs That mutual satisfaction that you speak of is the stuff of which agreements are mad We have the view that with the abolition of an official price of gold, elimination of IMF authority to accept gold with the prospective sale of one-sixth of the IMF gold, an with the agreement by G-10 that there will be no action t fix the price of gold, and with the G-10 gold cap, that it is unlikely that gold is going to move back into the cent of the monetary system, and that we are pursuing or proceeding along a path that we have described to you and many others many times. X might say in addition, that in a period such as we have been operating in with wide price expectations, it is most unlikely — this is just an observation — most unlikely that an official settlement would occur in gold. QUESTION: Would that be on a de jure basis 10 or on a de facto basis? When you list these various ingredients, would you say well, phase gold out of the international monetary system? For example, a country such as Uruguay, where their central bank can borrow on gold, it in effect makes gold an official reserve and makes it as de facto transactions are concerned. UNDER SECRETARY YEO: I don't think that that really has a central relationship to the question of wheth gold is moving bade to center stage or out on the wings. It is our view that for the reasons, not just our opinion, but for the reasons that X mentioned, that gold is moving the wings. And complementing that X think our fundamental economic development is reinforcing that tendency. QUESTION: Would you spell out again what is the final position of the United States as far as the sale of the 25 million ounces of gold is concerned? Can it go on before January or can it not? And if so, if not, when do you expect the sales may begin? UNDER SECRETARY YEO: Sam Cross, do you want to answer that? MR. CROSS: The question is, when the varicos parts of the gold sale could begin. There are some differi views OJI this. I believe it was stated, it has been state that the Fund does have certain legal authority due to certain legal provisions to begin disposing of its gold 11 under the present articles without amendment, and that step could be taken if there were an agreement to do so to move the gold at any time, or to begin to move the gold at any time, to dispose of it for the purpose of beginning to accumulate some funds, for the purpose of helping the LDC's MR. PLUM: We will take two more questions. Yes, Sir. QUESTION: Mr. Yoe, can you confirm that the Interim Committee has informally agreed to leave all furthe discussion on floating exchange rates to the USA and France leaving all others out, and that the oil exporting countrie have expressed sympathy with the French view on floating exchange rates? UNDER SECRETARY YOE: I can confirm that there is no such agreement, that the full Interim Committee will deal with the exchange rate issue. That is not to preclude discussions among a variety of participants, but the exchange rate issue will be decided by the Interim Committe and in the Interim Committee. I am sorry, I did not get the second part of your question. QUESTION: About the support. Have you heard of support from the OPEC countries for the French position on floating exchange rates? UNDER SECRETARY YEO: We have heard a variety 12 of countries express their views over the last week. Our general impression, just as an observation, is that many countries have found the present voluntary system a con- genial one. The exchange rate system that we i*ould propo we call a voluntary system, and those countries that wish to peg can move to a fixed exchange system. They are cer- tainly under our proposal free to do so. On the other hand those countries that wish to continue to float are free to do so. MR. PLUM: Any more questions? Yes. QUESTION: I have a question about the sale of gold. Is there a cutoff date for the sale of gold to end? In other words, how long would it take to sell the one-six amount of gold, and when do you achieve that $3 billion that you hope to get out of the sale of gold? UNDER SECRETARY YEO: There is no cutoff dateX cannot speculate on the length of time that will be involved. MR. PLUM: Shall we take one more question? QUESTION: X believe that Mr. Yeo himself seated about a week ago, and that Mr. Simon reiterated ~ I'm sorry. Mr. Yeo stated first about a week ago that the United States position on the bundling of the gold issue and the exchange rates issue was not something that the United States will be pushing. But Secretary Simon, after 9? the unbundling, at least in theory, did go through, and it was a bit of a humiliation for the United States, that the United States was able to push on the bundling because there was a mandate from Congress to do so. I am not aware of any such mandate, and people we have questioned on the Hill are not aware of that. I was wondering if you can clarify this. UNDER SECRETARY YEO: I am sorry. Perhaps you could restate that. I don't remember my saying that, I think that what X said at my last press conference was that we could have unbundling in the sense of reaching agreement on issues taken away from the three and dealt with separately. Indeed, that is what has happened. ":"" I think I also said that any agreement on one or two of these three issues would have to be presented to Congress along with agreement, ultimate agreement on any issue not unbundled so that we would present Congress with an agreement on all three issues, reaching agreement in stages. MR. PLUM: Thank you very much. {Whereupon, at 3:05 p.m., the press conference was concluded.) Jne tSvcUfamal oD^cadaz^na MEET loctn/iaAvu, csweAeivfo THE REASURY 2*7 PRESS &eduA**tty LAWRENCE E. SPIVAK >tei»ber 10, 1975 3U* WILLIAM E. SIMON The Secretary of the Treasury £ing Lvania Aveaue, H.W. c VOLUME 19 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 1975 NUMBER 36 JfevMe &&eto Jnc. printer* and PJeviodica/' 0ul/ii/wri. tfu.iucUa.iijj. o£ c7if.vco focr/toyalion 3fox2JH, "jfcJunptbn. @. <€. X00J3 •5 cents per copy rence was Gcnvar.^d, 0Le/: L E O N A R D SILK, The New York Times H A R R Y B. ELLIS, The Christian Science Monitor L E E M. COHN, The Washington Star IRVING R. LEVINE, NBC News JU>«do*: L A W R E N C E E. SPIVAK Permission is hereby granted to news media and magazines to reproduce in whole or in part. Credit to NBC's MEET THE PRESS will be appreciated. #7 MEET THE PRESS MR. S P I V A K : Our guest today on M E E T T H E P R E S S is the Secretary of the Treasury, William E. Simon. Before taking his present post in May, 1974, he served as the first administrator of the federal energy agency. H e came to Washington in 1972 from a career in investment banking in New York City. W e will have thefirstquestions n o w from Irving R. Levine of N B C News. MR. LEVINE: Mr. Secretary, you and other members of the administration have repeatedly warned of the dangers of inflation to our economy. Yet the most recent monthly Consumer Price Index shows the inflation rate going up at an annual rate of over 14 percent a year, and the Wholesale Price Index which came out just two days ago shows wholesale prices going up at an annual rate of just under ten percent. W h a t do you see as the outlook now for inflation? SECRETARY SIMON: I don't think that the outlook, Mr. Levine, has really changed at all. W e know w e have a serious inflation problem—a base rate of inflation as w e pull out of this recession of somewhere in the area of 7 percent. I caution though that w e not take one or two months' statistics as an indication of permanency. W e have m a d e significant inroads in our battle against inflation, in the war, if you will, against inflation. The G N P deflator is down in the second quarter of this year to five percent versus almost 15 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. The Wholesale Price Index is down from over 30 percent in the third quarter of last year to five percent in the second quarter, the Consumer Price Index, cut in half. That doesn't m e a n w e have w o n the war. W e have w o n a battle, but w e have to continue our vigilance in this, our true long-term enemy. MR. LEVINE: A good many business leaders and economists take a more alarming view about this new burst of inflation and 1 express the fear that it m a y interrupt the rather feeble business recovery w e are n o w experiencing. W h a t is your reaction to that view? S E C R E T A R Y S I M O N : I think that the figures have been obviously disappointing, but again I do not take those as a longterm trend. It was due to food and food processing and the passing-through of increased energy costs. These are on the special factors side and will pass through the economy. But this doesn't mitigate the fact, as I said a minute ago, that we have a serious long-term inflationary problem that is going to take several years to cure. MR. LEVINE: Do these recent figures lead you to believe that some additional steps should be taken by the administration, and, if so, what should they be? SECRETARY SIMON: I don't think that additional steps must be taken. W e have the policies in place, the fiscal and monetary policies that w e are attempting to bring into balance, that over the long run are going to solve this problem. The important thing is that this problem didn't come about overnight. It came as a result of irresponsible and excessive fiscal and monetary policies over the last decade, and w e are not going to cure the sins of this past decade by a day of penance. (Announcements) MR. SILK: The administration has said that it can't help New York City out of itsfiscalcrisis unless city officials produce a credible program for solving the N e w York City problem, but then you say: If N e w York City does produce such a plan, the federal government will have nothing that it needs to do. Isn't this Catch 22? Isn't there anything the federal government can do to help N e w York City to avoid default and to solve its longerrange problems? SECRETARY SIMON: Let's put this whole issue in the proper perspective and talk about m y responsibility as Secretary of the Treasury, which I perceive to be the maintenance and protection of thefiscaland financial integrity of the United States and its dollar, which has been seriously eroding and deteriorating in recent years. W e have an inflation problem that I have just alluded to. W e have had politicians that for years w e have been electing on the credo of spend, spend, just more and more, promising more than they can deliver, and the end result is inflation. W e have finite resources, w e have finite savings to finance our future in the United States, and w h e n you imply that the federal government should, as has been implied, guarantee the state and local debt, this brings up serious financial questions and serious 2 ^9 financial consequences, not to mention the inflationary consequences. Lets look at what it does: It creates a n e w series of iebt because equity demands that if w e do it for N e w York City, we have to m a k e it available to all other states and local governments, in excess of $20 billion of borrowing each year. It creates a n e w security that would literally be better than the federal government's o w n security because it would be tax-exempt and government-guaranteed, thereby further pre-empting credit in our private capital markets that w e have already crowded-out substantially in the past ten years to finance $150 billion of budget deficits and then the off-budget gimmick that was created by the politicians to avoid the budgetary process—a third of a trillion dollars, $300 billion, w e have financed for both these type programs, taking m o n e y from the productive sector that provides 85 percent of the jobs in the United States, money that could have gone for housing and the creation of n e w jobs. That is what w e have been doing. But, most importantly, what does it do? It puts the federal government directly involved in thefiscaland financial affairs of state and local governments in the United States, and this in m y judgment contravenes the constitutional principle of federalism. I would think T h o m a s Jefferson and others would be twirling in their graves, because if we have to involve ourselves in the financial affairs and give guarantees, then w e have to protect the federal interest, and, as a result, w e would have to say, "Well, w e will tell you w h e n to borrow, h o w m u c h you can borrow and what your priorities are." That is not what this country is all about. Imagine an angel of mercy in the guise of a GS-16, a federal official, would come down and say, " W e need this in the federal government." I believe in states rights, and I think this would be an intolerable precedent. MR. SILK: Not all city problems are peculiar to the city. Take welfare, for example, with people coming in from all over. Isn't there need, even if N e w York City did all the budget-cutting anybody could imagine and if, as a result, the city deteriorated and income continued to decline—that there would need to be federal programs, including picking up a part of the welfare burden? SECRETARY SIMON: I think the whole subject of the welfare debate—and I most certainly have been a critic on the issue of welfare as far as the federal government is concerned for a long time—I have long favored an income-maintenance program recognizing that the United States government has the responsibility to take care of those unfortunate people w h o cannot take care of themselves, and yes, that debate is going to start. Presi3 Chairman dent Ford has directed Vice President Rockefeller as of the Domestic Council to commence an overall study with the eye to recommendations on the welfare system, but this is a longer-run, necessarily, answer to the question. In the short-run, [if] N e w York City presents a credible budget and crediblefiscalpolicies, they will be allowed to reenter the capital markets again. MR. COHN: Getting back to the national economy, even if the administration's forecasts turn out to be accurate—and there is some doubt about that—at the time of next year's election campaign, unemployment will be higher, inflation will be worse than almost any time since World W a r II. H o w can the Republican administration and the Republican Congress expect to be reelected under those circumstances? SECRETARY SIMON: I think the most important thing is the direction that the economy is moving in, because no one has the ability to forecast the future exactly—with the exact numbers of unemployment and what real growth is. The fact is, our forecasts have erred on the side of conservatism [in] that the economic recovery commenced earlier than w e expected, and now w e perceive its quality and indeed the size of the real GNP growth to be greater than anticipated. MR. COHN: Where do you expect unemployment and inflation to be, approximately, when the voters are going to the polls next year? SECRETARY SIMON: Again, it is impossible for me to forecast exact numbers, but w e will continue to m a k e progress on both fronts and will continue to have positive real growth moving into 1976 and a declining unemployment rate, and it is going to decline a lot faster than the budget projections which Arthur Burns and I have said on m a n y occasions—we do not perceive this pessimism to be accurate. MR. ELLIS: Further on unemployment, in the last five months about 1.5 million more Americans are at work than previously, but still the jobless rate is stuck at 8.4 percent. M y question is, how m a n y jobs year by year must our economy create to bring down the unemployment rate and to take care of newcomers to the labor force? SECRETARY SIMON: First of all, we have to bring the econo m y back to full employment, which is slightly in excess of three million jobs from this level. Then, between now and 1980, w e have to provide for two million n e w jobs each year, new jobs, new entrants to the labor force, and a million and a half jobs, new jobs, after that. 4 M R . E L L I S : M y question then would go further: Would that creation of new jobs, even if it proves possible, help the teenagers and the blacks whose unemployment rates are disproportionately high? H o w do you help these people in our economy? SECRETARY SIMON: This is a question that is extremely difficult, and w e continue to work on the social problems that are attendant with the minorities and the teenagers and the structural problems that w e have got in our employment force. Certain parts of it can be done in a legal sense, and w e do that to every extent that w e can. W e have to continue to provide the equal opportunity that has always been present in this great country of ours. MR. SPIVAK: According to The New York Times, you said the Ford administration was unlikely to act in the N e w York Cityfinancialcrisis, but that it might step in afterwards to soften the impact. W h a t sense does that make? SECRETARY SIMON: I think that we have a responsibility in the federal government to take care of any hardship that might occur if N e w York City defaulted, and I say "if" very strongly because a N e w York City default can be avoided and it should be avoided. It can be avoided by taking the tough steps that have to be taken. As far as what effects there might be, you look at the bankruptcy law, which is certainly inadequate to m a k e sure that there will be an orderly transition, if there was a default. W e have to m a k e sure that federal assistance payments for our many programs continue to flow through the city. And, of course, most importantly, the Treasury Department is working with the banking agencies to assure the continuing functioning of our banking system, which w e will. MR. SPIVAK: You think that New York City can still, within this next week, which I think is about all it has, avoid default? SECRETARY SIMON: The Governor and all the legislators in 1 Albany are presently working on a program that can avoid this, and I hope they act with deliberate haste. MR. LEVINE: You have spoken of the vigor of the recovery I which has taken place, and at a news conference last week you indicated that the recovery from the recession m a y be vigorous enough to eliminate the need for a continuation of this year's i tax cut next year. But in an election year is it inevitable that the tax cut will be continued? SECRETARY SIMON: That premise has been presented to me by several members of Congress, and m y reply to that has been that I would hope for once w e begin to m a k e good economic 5 judgments on matters and not political ones, that good economics are good politics, not the reverse. M R . L E V I N E : A n d you would consider it good economics not to have a tax cut next year, but in fact what would amount to a tax increase? S E C R E T A R Y S I M O N : The point is that it is too early to make that assessment, as w e have continued to say. T h e tax cut.discussions are going to be held over the next 30 to 60 days, when m u c h more evidence of the economic recovery and the extent of same will be in, and at that point if the recovery is disappointing in any way, as I said, I wouldn't hesitate to urge the President to recommend to the Congress for another increase. MR. LEVINE: But, Mr. Secretary, the administration and you have been saying now for three or four months that there is no rush, but the legislative timetable is such that you will have to m a k e up your mind within the next few weeks on this. Certainly you must be leaning one w a y or another. Is it fair to assume from your recent remarks that you are leaning against the continuation of the tax cut next year? SECRETARY SIMON: No, I would not wish to prejudge what I would recommend to the President because, as I say, the economic statistics that w e will have 30 to 60 days from now are going to be extremely important. Also, the action on the oil price increase is going to be an important consideration. MR. SILK: According to our paper, you are reported to be in agreement with Alan Greenspan, w h o has written a m e m o warning that Vice President Rockefeller's $100 billion plan to create an agency for making energy loans would create a large potential for real and perceived corrupt practices—those are the words used in the m e m o — p l u s waste, plus a great deal of competition with the private sector. Is that in fact your position, or do you support the Rockefeller $100 billion energy plan? SECRETARY SIMON: Let me tell you exactly where I stand. I favor United States government involvement in certain areas of the energy problem, areas that the private sector cannot develop because certain of the more sophisticated future synthetic energy sources are non-economic, and therefore money will not flow to them, such as massive oil-shale,fission,fusion, and other sophisticated forms. The debate centers, not on favor, unfavor, but the extent of the corporation and its powers and what indeed it would do, and that is the discussion that is going on with the President right now. MR. COHN: You conferred with the Finance Ministers of the oil-exporting countries during last week's International Mone- 6 £*3 tary Fund meeting. What impression did you get from them on the prospects for an oil price increase next month? SECRETARY SIMON: It would be sheer guesswork on my part to assess whether there will be an increase or not. That is a political question, not an economic one. Ifindthat the Finance Ministers of most of the O P E C nations were moderate. They understand what their responsibilities are, that a significant increase would indeed damage the delicate balance in the world revival of expansion in all the economies. Of course, there are those countries that, as a result of their spending, domestic spending programs, would like a price increase to get more monies to spend in their o w n economies, and they are using phony economic and financial arguments. I have no idea w h o will win, but I would certainly hope that the moderates do. There is no justification for the present price, much less any increase. MR. COHN: If the oil exporters go ahead nevertheless and raise prices and if domestic oil prices are decontrolled, h o w can you be confident that the recovery will proceed? W h y will these price increases not devastate the economy as they did in 1974? SECRETARY SIMON: Devastation is a strong term, and in 1974 the price was quadrupled. A slight increase—if they do increase the prices—we would have to assess exactly what was going to occur as far as itsfiscalimpact on its economy, and also it is unclear whether or not w e are going to have decontrol. W h a t will happen this week will be important in that regard. MR. ELLIS: We have talked about jobs and inflation, and now to look a little farther down that road, our economy has been built and has grown fast on consumer expectations of more, always a higher standard of living, and in part it seems to m e this easy credit has led to our present difficulties. M y question is, should Americans be told that in the future their expectations simply cannot rise as they have in the past, and if they should be told that, can the economy grow as it has been accustomed to do? SECRETARY SIMON: Why, of course. All it requires is a slight shift in the policies that you so correctly describe that promote consumption and living for today at the expense of savings and investment. I think it is striking w h e n you talk about productivity and the standard of living—you know there is only one w a y to increase our standard of living, and that is to increase productivity, which is directly related to capital investment. It means more jobs, higher real earnings, cheaper goods and services for consumers. 7 ^9 M R . E L L I S : But as w e go down this road, relatively speaking, as the population ages, there will be more retired people depending on relatively fewer working Americans. Can our system, as we now know it, survive without major change, or must w e have changes in our economic planning in order to take care of those who need it? SECRETARY SIMON: I think we need changes. As I say, we need to shift the balance, just shift it from one that promotes consumption to one that promotes savings and investment, so that w e can get back on the increased productivity where we were for 20 years after World W a r II. MR. SPIVAK: Recently you called the foodstamp program a haven for "chiselers and ripoff artists," and you said that was one example of letting the government solve problems that people should solve for themselves. Are you in favor of abolishing the food stamp program entirely? SECRETARY SIMON: I most certainly am not, and let's put this food stamp statement I made, along with m a n y other similar statements on the part of leaders all over the country, and officials, in the proper perspective. The food stamp program was started to help the poor, to maintain a balanced nutritional diet which all Americans should be entitled to, and I strongly support the program for the poor. The problem with it is that the eligibility requirements are so loose and lax that almost a n y o n e — MR. SPIVAK: What do you think ought to be done about it? SECRETARY SIMON: We have to change the eligibility requirements to m a k e sure that the food stamp program be directed to the needy, not to the greedy. MR. LEVINE: One of your responsibilities in the Treasury Department is the Secret Service. The N e w York Times editorial yesterday stated that, "It is startling, after the Secret Service tightening of its procedures in the wake of the assassinations of the 1960s, that a vociferous m e m b e r of the Manson family would wander so easily into the path of a strolling President." W h a t is your response to that comment? D o you have any plans for reviewing the Secret Service procedures? SECRETARY SIMON: The Secret Service procedures are as adequate as any procedures can be in carrying out their duties of protecting the various people that they protect by law, and . they carry it out in a w a y that I think is as professional, if not more professional, than any other agency in the world in carrying out these duties. 8 5^r MR. SILK: Mr. Secretary, on decontrol of oil again, Congress is going to vote this week, and if Congress should sustain the President's veto of the bill extending oil controls for six months, would the President still be willing to compromise? Would you favor a compromise even after his veto had been sustained? In other words, are you for gradual decontrol or total decontrol? SECRETARY SIMON: From the beginning the President has expressed his willingness and his desire to compromise. Remember, in January he presented total decontrol. He then provided 25 months, then 30 months, now 39 months, with no action. Yes, the President would still consider a compromise based on his last proposal of a phased decontrol of 39 months. MR. COHN: Interest rates usually rise in a recovery, and mo of the experts expect them to rise this time. H o w much will that retard the recovery in your view? SECRETARY SIMON: I think that interest rates depend obviously on the demand that you describe. It also depends on the actual rate of inflation and the inflationary expectations that have been so deeply ingrained in our economy, and if we continue to make headway in our battle against inflation, then we can look for a moderation in interest rates. MR. ELLIS: What in your view would be an acceptable inflation rate in the years ahead and an acceptable rise in personal income? ^ SECRETARY SIMON: As far as the inflation rate is concerned, I think anyone would say zero, but let's be practical. I i think we have to get it back down between the two and the three nipercent level, which is going to take several years at least to accomplish. > MR. SPIVAK: You said at one time it is not a matter of ^whether prices of oil will come down, it is a matter of when they \ will come down. H o w soon do you expect them to come down and why? \ SECRETARY SIMON: I would expect if we take the necessary actions, which we certainly have not, in the United States "and all the other countries in the world, in conserving oil and get about the job of bringing on the alternate supplies of oil, certainly by the end of this decade we can see a lower price of * :t» MR. SPIVAK: I am sorry, but we must interrupt. Our time is *:iip. Thank you, Secretary Simon, for being with us today on i MEET T H E PRESS. 9 <jAe z/roceectinaS of MEET THE PRESS as broadcast nationwide by the National Broadcasting Company, Inc and printed and m a d e available to the public to further interest in impartial discussions of questions affecting the public welfare Transcripts m a y be obtained by sending a stamped, self-addressed envelope and twenty-five cents for each copy to: MeMe 0Ui Jnc. 8ox2*H. WaJunytcn. ®. Ctf. 20043 MEET THE PRESS is telecast every Sunday over the NBC Television Network. This program is originated from the NBC Studios in Washington, D.C. Television Broadcast 12:30-1:00 P.M. E D T S*7 IHITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY Washingtons D,C. PRESS CONFERENCE Held bys EDWIN H. YEO Under-Secretary for Monetary Affairs 4s00 p.m. Wednesday, Septesafoer 10, 1975 Treasury Building Room 4121 15th & Pennsylvania Avenue* B.W. Washington, D.C. The above -entitled press conference was convened, pursuant to notice, at 4s00 p.m. Utf'DER-SECRETARY YBOs Good afternoon* I have a series of points tnat v;e would like to ; try and lay out. T-he first is that we expect borrowing from ; i the public during the July-December hr.If year to be ir. the | :-.'-;'.nge of $44 to $47 billion. That is an increase ?:.;osr. o estimate of $41 billion. The difference is attributable to three things. ; One, outlays are running higher th^n had been expected on the basis of the figures provided to our own j treasury staff and their derivations from those figures. Two, | i \ the suspension of oil import fees amount to $1.0 biXlion. Andj j threes really in a separate area, is that we plan, as a matter | of policy, to carry a higher cash balance. This giver us a \ better cushion against short—t^ria receipt and outlay i variations. i I think that those of you who have followed the j developments of the last ^r.ree to four r*.oaths can appreciate ! this cushion, based on those experiences, that -'Will ensure th?- we will not be in a situation where developments in the for- \ i eign exchange market or elsewhere effect our position in terras \ i \ of our overall estimate. ; r^e second, point is that we hs-ve 3.one $21.5 billion , i inc."? udi:og the bills that will ha settled on September 18, Given the borrowing from th-3 public figr.r^ of $4»i :o $47 billion, this leaves «.x bal.?;*.ca yst to bft dos.«* of j \ jj $22.5 to $25.5 billion The third point is that today we arcs announcing 3 jj $4»G billion of our new cash borrowing on the £ollo*;:bvj basis; ; ii First, a $1.0 billion addition to the 52~^e@k bill, to be •auctioned September 17, for settlement 3-rrtesRber 23. Th*• •• • i » 6 j, w i l l raise the total amount o f bills being auctioned to V .1 $2.8 biliic,-\. ' : j ; 8 j) Mart, we will add $1.0 bii.Lio& to the $;*:.0 billion j 9 j quarter-end September 30 2-year note. r£hi'3 means that v/s will? i be auctioning, on September 1 6 , $3.0 billion in 2-year not-ss. ; M 1] We will auction $2*0 billion of 2^tj;r^:.vy 28, 1978 ,• $2 notes. These will be auctioned on Septesib?«r 24 •••.>.- settlement | If o n October 7. This 29-month note is aaothsr addition to \:h*s U ead-of-:iiorth notes begun earlier this year. ?5 Ied like to talk a little bit about our plans, HOK j 5 in the nature of announcements* specific financing ^.m.x^uce-" •;7 i roants, but our plans. Our present plan is to pl&co !&#£* i erophasis, to reduce the mmk^ise on the bill *nark'3«-.. Spa39 cifically, -£&# 3 and 6~aaonth regular weekly bill ^-icti~:a.. 20 We also plan a $2.5 billion intermediate ^ov:ef ix: 71 ! be sold in the second or 'third week of October, ~:.ni a 22 jj $3.0 billion October 31, 1977, not-6 to b-s scj.d in ;hii- S.-JLAK 23 ! .7:>;x?-ro:s:iE!at'S tine period- second or tnirc5 w^ai x?.? Octobsx . !i:f;.es^ will r/;t be sold t^cj&the:?? ^99 will bs ;.;b.cl supc.r.r,.:*,: .v til .:.:; The effect of "^tii9 program '/ill bci co flrtrnctf •,*»- the h i g h e r end of. 'die r a j g e that :: gave y o u iii tsr::;-; o f j !i ! '- ji b o r r o w i n g frcir. t h e p u b l i c . I t w i l l m e a n t h a t in t h e Ho^^ssber ; M • \ '• '*• i- r e f u n d i n g vr;;*li p r o b a b l y r s i s e s-cvr^ n e w c r s h , b u t n o t a 4 tj significant z-invvn-t of new cash* } : »i : 5 ji T h e o n l y o t h e r n o t e financing w h e r e n e w ca.«?h **ill t be raised for the reaairid&r o f t h e y a a r w i l l ba o n t h e 6 SJ| i I< ; [; J 7 M T9:zomi99te:c 31 note? so that 2>y th# end of October, our use of J , Ii the note market to finance this years second-half deficit ;?:uO. s £ jj be largely finished. We'111 still have some small imcu^t rel- • ! ative to the nusabars we have been talking ab-jut to dot- bu9 hi • JO 51 ji ftoves&er and D e c e i v e r f t h e $ & ar^i n o t significant rusab^rs* 12 I8d add that wa are not planning, at this pod.ni;, to •slloffer a - •.••• .- cycle not-ja at the end of K^v^«i^ber. This r fits in with a g^n<sr;ib r^solvB in this financing ef bs^ving }-'•^ is th-$ note ma3cket largely unus&d in Hovexabsr <~.i& Qscc-'ster* ji • $ j; T h e o n l y addifcior*ab thing is t h a t w?*.'<l srMit :::&•. is® 7 '•« f:o use w h a t h a & coii-vs. to b© called F & d a r a l F^raa^ Bibb fox g jj cash management purposes* ^ jb-^va no p.tar;3 to as,;, it "vo. ia effect, finance the deficits it*s a vehicle to ^eb ^& f.zvn\ *9 20 !! CM place to another place bridging .a,situation v;b*?rt, s-r 'jzxsh "'*dlanc€2 is small[* That is tee i5Xt&:.ru of what I hav& bo 3?y. fek ^u, r-^ ; i.s 2$ jj *-ay qua^tio.v;s? QYSSTXOHz :«: ^-^-drr if y^ \9-:,^i.ii ;-i-.-:.pi^ia yovr 24 I • •.;as:o.-.i.-i ib^r £ Xenniriv; bet1 p:*;>"v::\s!b -b'd.s 9^.9 r ^rbi ub • ro?; v^rb', .25 ' $1 to drop out of the market in November and December? UNDER-SECbbbARY *>3Qs The timing of o:ir needs was such that we have to be large borrowers in Ssptaaiber and October. It seems to us that. sine& we are going to havs to use th© note market extensively that •>>•& could pla& our financing in mxch a way t© giv^ room for the November T.%~ funding, and a period of time in which distribution -b securities can proceed. This avoids a significant ear^ra^t of not© financing every month* The timing of our expenditure requirements ra-sant that the money had to be raised in this tisane period and the< choice was to raise it in the bill market, in the relatively short note market, or in tte 'longer note market. I think that there are persuasive reasons for reducing our emphasis, at this time, on use of the bill market* One of the things that I am concerned about- is th& pi:obl^m of disintermediation, which really starts in rbi-v. bill market. QUESTION? Do you have any other $:easo2^s? UNDER-SECRETARY YEOs Y«s, I this* that tfe have asked a great deal of the bill market. We're goixsc? tu be continuing to raise money the:c&? wsrr& balking about d^gre^s of emphasis* I don't want to be misunderstood, we will be a continuous borrower of net cash in the bill ^a.rkat., I think that s. p^;:dxiv«: yield ciirve is d*;:drabk to get off financing needs of the sisa that \v£ are 1 robing at, \ I think that tba zczt of usi^g the ioag-b^r^ or intermediate i « loag--.:sri3 note araa anvmore than we .re planning to us*j it, I J i and the ability of the market to digest large scale financing j i in tba longer iatermedieite area, would be asking too much. I I X should esi^phasise that the note to be sold iu j mid-October, aside from the $3*0 billion 2-year note, wil.". be j in the longer intermediate area. j QUBSTIOHJ Are you saying that you &r& going to be j raising something like $13 to $16 billion in the bill ^arbst j j between now and the mnd of December? j ONDER-SECRETARY YEOs We would be raising southing j on that order, 1*11 get you the exact number. Xtfs $11 to S $13 billion. j QUESTION That still leaves 93.0 billion at the top end of your cssh borrowing range unaccepted for. ^feera j I does that come from? j U^SR-SBCRET&RY YEO: We have assumed teat you are j including the funds that I ms&tiaaed, $*5Q to $1.0* billion, in the November re funding * j QUESTIONs That twild take part or it. j U&DER-SSCRET&RY YSOs Yes, and the pessibbe $1*0 billion addition* the iXsorasbar 31 2-y^^: n v&s , QUESTION: Is that $,50 to $1.0 bullion Nov'-smse;; -, ';*»iTX*.ciing s. long funding pes^ibiiitv? i ! ONDER-SECRETM,* bbbs r £hcit99 certainly crn option. QUESTION: xbs $7.0 to $10.0 billion on tha b^*;;i* shs&t, feat naa meant new borrowing in the 3 to 6 ^fith bill market, is that right? tfaaSR-SECRETlU&Y YEOs >:b«, and also the so-called Federal Funds bills. I'd bbcs to emphasise that rind^cibsg of this sca3.e is a result, it*s a trueism but t\ result, of a very large deficit and I think that we can sae what the Secretory and others have hm®n alluding to in terms of the b&ak of financing on this scale. This is an effort ir.e fi&mea this on a& efficient a basis as possible, and on a basis in which w® ^99t havw some coaficb^oa in our estimates* l5m not going to givs you specific estimam^ in the future. I4m going to gi\?e you a range. £*n referring to the borrowing from the public?. I think that all &£ us know how difficult it is to develop a precise figure, txm myriad of variablesf the Impact, from time to time, on bbat figuref and w© ar& inducing more pracision into the pr<i»c&ss th£& really exists by giving a .single figure,. QUESTIONS HOW large a cash balance de you waxy-.t to carry? UNDER-SECRETARY YEO: This should $i*m us, as of the e-nd of the year, a czBh b&bane& i.n the £7.0 bo $9,0 billion range. QUESTIONS How Envsh of an increase is bb-t? UNDER~SECKET£RY YEOs Thas 92*Q billion. We gave ; i ) yov. a range borrowing from the public of $4* to $47 billion. j x You can assume that a part of that §3.0 bib lion difference I can be an adjustment in that end^of-ygar cask balance figure. QUESTIONS Giving the reasons for tkm increase in your borrowing, you did not include encashment of specials, as you had givan as a reason previously. given was $1.5 billion. I think the figure Why is that not included new? UNDER-SECRETARY YEOs Our assumptions asanas no significant change there, and teat is another reason for -the $3 billion spread in our market borrowing. The $1*5 billion I that we mentioned was in explaining the increase in our mar™ ket borrowing in August. That was something that had happened.! I'm glad you mentioned that because that^s an ascampl® of one of the factors that can impact thes& «stima>t&s. i QUESTION? I wonder if you would discuss the isapact that the increase in the caeh balance will have on the w^9&y supply and whether the Fed has h®mi apprised of your decision | and whether they plan any measures to make up for any con- \ \ tracti-on in the money supplies? I'ss not exactly ftimiliar *?i?::h j what bbs cash balance is now, but it seems like itbtf iw the $3*0 billion range, that you wuld be increasing bba cash j balance by about $6.0 billies. O^DER-SECRETARY YbC^ No* I'm 3ayiag that the estimates here, $44 to $47 billion, borrowing frcru tie public j estimate, would result at year-end, in a c^.99 bal&acs of j between $7.0 End $9.0 billion Tb&t is tbs specific ib-cr^as: j in *Jc=..sh balance that I ^mtio^&a. S i The second tiling that I said was that w& plan to -; run a little larger cash balance because of sas& of the things that Joe mentioned in terms of esca-U •.••«&t of specials. •) W© are not planning on any such development? but there are a j variety of things that can happen between now and year-end. | I think it would be not. only conv^sd^b, which is j not the real point, but much more efficient in terms r;b j j distortions to markets and changes in market expectations 9f \ i we had a slightly higher cash balance. 1 In terms of the average increase ia cash £>rb.3#.ce j 1 for this period, we don't have a figure. The specific tncz^asi i that I mentioned had to do with the ^nd-of^-^ar number that- j we are geared toward in putting together the resaaiad®:?: of j s 1 the half-year program* In planning, you have to come to a specific -r^c^rb- ; y#<f.r figure since we are talking about the conclusion of tha second half financing. QUESTION: You mentioned concern *&•*>&£. disintersnsdiation. Do you see economic forces building teward that possibility now? UNDER-SECRETARY YEOs X tnlsk tliat our concarr. "-» based on the increase in interest rates that we have ^xp^.rienced and in planning this program* "fe planned it *>±th a consider at i£.~'i being -*> E&nirnlza the ®zxs99 of thir; prcgr on th«s disinterm^dia^Xon process* I don't reaJLly thi&k 1 can coassm&n-t on an interest rate forecast, but I can tell you the thinking tbut w<sat .Into putting this program together, and that was certain 'y a facto] QUESTIONS How ar@ you defining iatermed:b-:>te note for purposes of th$ October finances? UNDER-SECRETARY YEOi X think it is certainly longer than where we have been* flnanci^T, where we will have financed. QUESTION: Longer than t^xo and ^n^-haXf years^ UNDER-SECRE-mEY YEO: Longer t&aa 29 months. $$a hara triad to do this in ssich ^ way, sad announce it In snoh a way,* that MB are as cie&x a® possible I know it is a specific annomssss&fcjiatj lt*s fairly d&tail#d. if thera is anything I can do to cl&ziify this h&fore the wires are e?:secrus^d and we harm an embargo of f;rrs mmites. QUESTION: So*; mixch higher ars ou>JL&y.«s tr^vis^ than you expected? UNDER-SECRETARY YBOs Oist/nys are srusnirg $2 ,3 bo :r3*0 billion higher than w# had asbicip^t^a, I aoz**t want t.o 'wnsvtfsnt on thsa specific ar^ss, it's r^lativaly wids-^vpr .=bi-i:.*v plus import: fts-aa, w'&ich ^bc:e £1,0 hbibiom c^fc, tff the basis for the estimates that resulted 5-n the $44 to $47 billion figure. bbEibbbO^s fJc-(7 ai:# rev^nus ^ti^ntss hold-.-.r ^p'r bbD^ii-'ti^CR^^RY YEOs Our ^m^wm rsstisas^Stf ?*r& holding up, and I will forecast ce.m item vbich W&12I& b^ a in&te£;ial increase in corporate tax Mesipts, whi^b <&ould hava &n isepact on 'the first h-bi£ of calendar 1976, the second half of this fiscal year. Our problem, a$i<3& from the specific, is os bh# expenditure side. QUESTION: Why ax® corporate tax receipts "-9::y9,9:>s& t& be increasing higher than you expected? UNDER-SECRETARY YEOs 2 didn't say higher than ®3cpected, but I think that the increase in economic activity, the recovery, is likely to set the stage for a recovery in corporate profits and an attendant increase, oarh&ps substantial, in corporate tass receipts* (39hereupoa, at /, :25 o'clock p.m., the pzmss conference was concluded.) Contact: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Robert E. Harper 964-5775 SEPTEMBER 8, 1975 TREASURY SECRETARY SIMON NAMES ROBERT I. SONFIELD AS U. S. SAVINGS BONDS CHAIRMAN FOR LOUISIANA Robert I. Sonfield, President, Maison Blanche, New Orleans, is appointed Volunteer State Chairman for the Savings Bonds Program in Louisiana by Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon, effective immediately. Mrs. Francine I. Neff, National Director, U. S. Savings Bonds Division, and Treasurer of the United States, today presented the certificate of appointment to Sonfield at a bankers breakfast held in The Presbytere. He will head a committee of business, banking, labor, government and media leaders who --in cooperation with the U. S. Savings Bonds Division -- assist in promoting Bond sales throughout the state. He succeeds James H. Jones, former Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, First National Bank of Commerce, New Orleans, who has received the Treasury "Award of Merit". Sonfield, born in 1928, is a New Orleans native. He was graduated from Tulane University in 1950 with a BA degree. In February 1950, he joined Maison Blanche as Assistant to the Store Manager. Later that year he entered the Navy, serving as Staff Officer, Commander-in-Chief, Allied Forces, Southern Europe, until 1952. He returned to Maison Blanche in November of that year. In 1961, he was named Divisional Merchandise Manager, Home Furnishings; in 1967, Senior Vice President and General Merchandise Manager; in 1968, Executive Vice President and General Merchandise Manager. He assumed his present post in 1969, along with the position of Vice President and Director, City Stores Co., New York, parent firm of Maison Blanche. He is active in numerous business, civic and professional activities, including -- Vice President, New Orleans Tourist ( over ) - 2and Convention Commission, 1975; Chairman, New Orleans Symphony Fund Drive, 1974-75; Board Member, Chamber of Commerce, First National Bank of Commerce, New Orleans Philharmonic Symphony, United Way, Loyola University. Sonfield was voted one of the Ten Outstanding Men in New Orleans in 1974 by the Institute for Human Understanding. He and his wife, the former Andrea Thome Beerman, have three sons '-- Robert, Jr., Justin and John -- and a daughter, Loren. oOo b to ederal financing bank C <£> </> 9 </> C M WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE <u o September 8, 1975 SUMMARY OF LENDING ACTIVITY August 17 - August 31, 1975 Federal Financing Bank lending activity for the period August 17 through August 31, 1975, was announced as follows by Roland H. Cook, Secretary: The FFB made the following loans to utility companies guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration: Interest Rate Maturity Amount Borrower Date $2,778,000 8.720% 12/31/09 8/19 Cooperative Power Association (Minnesota) 1,623,000 8.730% 12/31/09 8/20 South Mississippi Electric Power Association 3,325,000 8.180% 8/22/77 8/25 Associated Electric Cooperative (Missouri) 5,000,000 8.172% 8/26/77 8/18 Tri-State Generation & Transmission (Colorado) Interest payments are made quarterly on the above REA loans. Amtrak, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, made three drawings against its lines of credit with the Bank: Date Amount Interest Rate 8/18 8/29 8/29 $10,000,000 15,000,000 7,000,000 6.733% 6.671% 6.671% Maturity 9/30/75 9/30/75 12/1/75 On August 19, the US Railway Association borrowed $5 million from the Bank under USRA Note No. 3 which matured August 25, 1975 The rate of interest was 6.858%. On August 25, 1975, USRA rolled over the total $69.2 million borrowed under Note No. 3, and borrowed $477,000 at 6.755% interest. The new maturity is November 24, 1975. (Over) 9> On August 25, the FFB purchased a 5-year, $500 million Certificate of Beneficial Ownership from the Farmers Home Administration. The interest rate is 8.78%, paid on an annual basis. The Tennessee Valley Authority borrowed $120 million from the FFB on August 28, 1975. The interest rate is 6.886%. The loan matures November 26, 1975. Proceeds of the loan were used to pay off a $100 million note maturing with the Bank, and to provide $20 million new money for TVA. On August 29, the Department of Health, Education and Welfare borrowed $4,255,000 from the Bank under the Medical Facilities Loan Program. The interest rate is 8.575% and the maturity is July 1, 1999. The Bank signed loan agreements with the following governments: 8/28 Greece $30,000,000 8/29 China $40,000,000 These agreements are under the Foreign Military Sales Act and guaranteed by the Department of Defense. Federal Financing Bank loans outstanding on August 31, 1975 total $14.6 billion. tBepariimniofi^JRl/\$UflY ii NGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 i^ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 8, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.9 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $3.2 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on September 11, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as' follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing December 11, 1975 High Low Average Discount Rate Investment Price Rate U 98.393 98.379 98.385 6.357% 6.413% 6.389% 6.57% 6.63% 6.60% 26-week bills maturing March 11, 1976 Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ 96.526 96.510 96.517 6.872% 6.903% 6.889% 7.24% 7.27% 7.26% Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 4%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 98%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 42,610,000 $ boston ,313,710,000 New York 41,300,000 Philadelphia 102,045,000 Cleveland 58,115,000 Richmond 39,185,000 Atlanta 490,810,000 Chicago 63,325,000 St. Louis 26,885,000 Minneapolis 57,325,000 Kansas City 62,470,000 Dallas 446,835,000 San Francisco TOTALS$4>744,615,000 Accepted $ 29,410,000 2,135,880,000 36,050,000 51,345,000 32,370,000 36,525,000 131,450,000 37,605,000 13,085,000 52,780,000 32,470,000 311,450,000 Received Accepted $ 67,980,000 $ 35,980,000 4,561,640,000 2,496,080,000 67,565,000 12,565,000 223,175,000 82,575,000 54,740,000 22,940,000 57,595,000 20,995,000 492,655,000 74,055,000 43,625,000 15,625,000 33,635,000 7,615,000 34,705,000 30,025,000 29,290,000 19,290,000 577,030,000 382,930,000 $2,900,420,000 a/ $6,243,635,000 $3,200,675,000 b/ a/ Includes $535,650,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. h./ Includes $280,375,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 9, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $ 5,600,000,000, or thereabouts, to be issued September 18, 1975, as follows: 9tday bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated June 19, 1975, and to mature December 18, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 YC4), originally issued in the amount of $ 2,300,690,00Q the additional and original bills to be freely Interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,900,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated September 18, 1975, and to mature March 18, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YY6). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing ^September 18, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,551,430,000, of which I Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,704,965,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to ;i one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Friday, September 12, 1975. .c: Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on September 18, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing September 18, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treatment. Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice» prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE STEPHEN S. GARDNER DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SUPERVISION, REGULATION AND INSURANCE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, CURRENCY AND HOUSING WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 1975, 10:00 A.M. Thank you Mr. Chairman As you know, this Administration is committed to the repeal of regulation and regulatory authority wherever such regulatory constraints are outmoded and counterproductive, and restrict the efficient utilization of our economic system. The Regulation O and related ceilings on time and savings deposits are becoming increasingly less effective and, as a direct corollary, progressively more unfair to the consumer saver. At the time the scope of Regulation Q was extended in 1966, Congress recognized that such action would not cure the basic imbalances in supply and demand for credit, but the Congress hoped to provide thrift institutions with a sufficient flow of funds to assure that they could carry on their lending function in the mortgage market. In accordance with the legislative intent, the authority granted by Regulation 0 has been historically implemented in two ways, each with its own specific objective. First, interest ceilings have been maintained low enough so that the institutions covered could afford to pay the stipulated maximum rate. Indeed the ceilings have helped to prevent an escalation of the excessive rate competition Congress sought to moderate in 1966, and accordingly the ceilings have protected those institutions that would have been unable to meet such competition from being forced out of the residential WS-378 mortgage business. Second, a differential in the permissible rate of interest has been maintained to attempt to provide competitive parity between different types of financial institutions. Again, the thrust of the regulators1 efforts has been to assure that the mortgage granting institutions which have limited banking powers were protected. While we may not agree with the Congressional rationale in enacting Regulation Q, we recognize the objectives of such legislation. However, it is our belief that events of the last ten years clearly establish that Regulation Q has not met those objectives. Despite, or perhaps as a result of the existence of the ceilings, disintermediation in every high interest period since 1966 has grown progressively more disruptive; each time it has ceased only when interest rates have declined. Your doubts that "Regulation 0 due to a variety of circumstances... is not as effective in achieving its primary purpose of insuring a steady flow of deposits in thrift institutions as originally contemplated when first adopted in 1966," are well founded. In any market-oriented system, administered interest rates set artificially low will stimulate borrowers and suppliers of funds to evade such controls. Enterprise, which is part of our free enterprise system, also means that a market demand will be filled by ingenious means. From 1962 and especially from 1966 on, time deposits experienced a remarkable growth as compared to passbook accounts. By the end of 1974 they constituted over 50 percent of the deposits of savings and loan associations and about two-thirds of the time and savings deposits of commercial banks. Since financial institutions traditionally perceived time deposits to be stable funds because of the substantial penalties for their early withdrawal, they promoted them aggressively. As a result, depositors became sensitized and sophisticated about the yields of alternative savings investments, and over time became increasingly willing to take advantage of favorable opportunities in other, less routine, but secure instruments. During the summer of 1974, a depositor could earn 5-1/4 percent in a passbook account at his savings and loan association, but if he was wealthy enough to afford the $100,000 minimum purchase requirement of a large denomination bank certificate of deposit he could earn almost 12 percent. Further, $25,000 was sufficient to earn the same rate with 90-119 day prime commercial paper. Money market mutual fund managers developed a system for pooling the size small individual savers into blocs of sufficient to funds take of advantage of the $100,000 time deposit J27 certificate. They offered sufficient convenience and liquidity to attract large numbers of savers unwilling to be accorded the second class treatment mandated by the deposit rate ceilings. In March of 1974, there were seven such funds in existence with combined assets of less than $250 million. One year later 33 funds accounted for almost $3.8 billion in assets. While it is more difficult to quantify, other savers entered the capital markets directly in search of safe, liquid, and high-yielding investments, such as Treasury and sponsored agency securities, and of course this resulted in severe savings outflows from thrift institutions. The protection sought to be obtained by savings institutions through application of Regulation Q was offset by savings outflows for direct investment at higher return rates elsewhere. As mortgage-oriented institutions have found the amount of dollars available to them reduced by disintermediation, they have increased their efforts to wrest a larger share of the remaining interest rate sheltered funds, from their competitors, the commercial banks. Thrift institutions recognized that the interest rate differential, which was intended to equalize the inherent competitive advantage of full-service banking, could result in an increased market share if the services they offered could be more equal. At the same time commercial banks sought to offer more services, both to maintain or increase their competitive advantage, and to maximize the profit potential of the relatively low cost consumer deposit. Aggressive management, state legislatures, trade associations, and even the regulatory agencies themselves have joined in this escalating battle of competitive equality. This Committee is well aware of the recent actions of the Maine and Connecticut legislatures to permit expanded powers and checking accounts to state chartered thrift institutions, and of other attempts to place those institutions on a more competitive full-service basis with banks. The growth of competition between institutional types has largely been in the best interest of the consumer, and should be encouraged. The battle has had its unfortunate consequences, however, in that the controversy engendered by these actions, together with actual or feared changes in the differential, have obscured the real issue — that durina periods of high interest rates, all institutions are competing for an increased share of rapidly diminishing market. Approximately two years ago, we submitted to Congress a proposal for financial reform based largely on the findings of the Hunt Commission. Although the proposal encountered strong - 4 opposition at first, two successive periods of high interest rates and disintermediation have provided convincing arguments for the soundness of this approach. During this period, an increasing variety of responses by regulators and others to changing market forces have brought about some piecemealing of financial reform, an approach which cannot hope to provide the balance and comprehension necessary to insure sound progress. We are delighted that this Committee, with its FINE study and these series of hearings, has served notice of its recognition of the problems which can result from inconsistent and piecemeal reform and we applaud the Committee's goal of resolving these questions in a swift and orderly fashion. Mr. Chairman, we need a clear and precise statement of national policy on financial reform. We need a m a p — a plan for the successful implementation of balanced and viable reform over the next several years. It must be comprehensive and fair, to assure the maximum opportunity for growth and success for all financial institutions in a changing society. ri- Despite our belief that deposit rate regualtion is not the appropriate course in the long run, we recognize that the ceilings do represent the only competitive protection for mortgage-oriented thrift institutions at the present time. It is our belief that the ceilings should be extended until next June, to enable the Congress to act on a new program of financial reform. We feel the ceilings should be retained as a part of any such reform program — but only until they are no longer necessary, and at that time they should be eliminated. Similarly, it is our belief that the power to impose a differential should be continued to balance the inherent competitive difference between institutions, until an acceptable degree of competitive equality is achieved through comprehensive financial reform. In considering the differential, it must always be kept in mind that we are not dealing simply with a mathematical fraction, but rather with a complex series of ever-changing market conditions which must be recognized and monitored, analyzed and responded to accordingly. There are so^.e instances in which a differential might not be appropriate as in the case of passbook savings accounts for towns or municipalities, or possibly for IRA or Keogh plan accounts. We believe strongly that the respective regulatory agencies are best equipped to analyze changing market conditions and to react quickly when such changes occur. As a result, the authority of such regulators to establis ceiling rates and the differential under Regulation Q should be continued. &? Finally, we would like to express our opposition to the payment of interest on demand deposits. The homogenization of savings and transaction balances which would result from the payment of interest on demand deposits not only gives rise to serious questions regarding monetary policy and reserve requirements of and between banking institutions, but also raises substantial concern as to whether the payment of interest on demand deposits would not severely diminish consumer benefits resulting from the phasing out of Regulation Q. Further, economists tell us that in the period 1974 through 1985 our estimated cumulative investment needs in the U.S. will range from $4 to $4-1/2 trillion. Much of this capital must come from small pools of individual savings. We must therefore do everything possible to encourage the growth of these deposits. While we support the kind of evolutionary change evidenced by NOW accounts and electronic funds transfer systems, we view such changes as less significant than the fundamental changes which would result from the payment of interest on demand deposits. Indeed the changes which are now taking place and which are, in some instances, tending to blur the distinction between demand and time deposits, will provide valuable insight into this complex issue. We are convinced that in this case a reasoned judgment based on sufficient information and understanding will be in the ultimate best interest of the consumer, of the financial system, and of the economy. $ A D D E N D U M Attached hereto are two charts which demonstrate that during the post - 1966 period the volatility of total mortgage lending, and particularly savings and loan association lending, has increased despite the imposition of Regulation Q ceilings. In analyzing Chart 1 it should be noted that in 1969-1970 the decline in activity by savings and loan associations accounted for 63 percent of the total decline in residential mortgage lending. During the high disintermediation periods of 1973 and 1974 the industry's share of the total decline increased to 82 percent and 87 percent, respectively. Chart 2 demonstrates that during high interest rate periods when the need for mortgage credit is greatest, savings and loan associations reduced their share of the total market. Conversely, when credit is relatively easy, the industry's share increases substantially. CHART 1 so- S&L MORTGAGE LENDING AND RESIDENTIAL nORTGAGE GROUTH 1316 Changes in residential mortgages outstanding 14- in .Changes in S&L holdings of mortgages 12- o _J 10- CD d- 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 * Seasonally adjusted quarterly flows Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds • % ^ •—• « • s <___\"<R/VV/xT/V7" J-JBRsIs?. 70 71 72 73 74 75 ^ CHART 2 1 ** 0 "T S&L SHARE OF MORTGAGE LENDING,* 19G0-1975II 9 0 SO 70 60-f <-> s Q - i or " LU 4030£010j 60 r-,i 62 63 64 65 66 67 bS b9 70 71 (Z ro. 4 mortgage holdings of S&L's as a percent of changes in residential mortgages *rhanaes an .5 Contact: Herbert C. Shelley X2951 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 10, 1975 ^^-^ TREASURY ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY COUNTERVAILING DUTY DETERMINATION Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, David R. Macdonald, announced today a preliminary determination in the countervailing duty investigation of hydrogenated castor oil and 12 hydroxystearic acid from Brazil. Under the U.S. Countervailing Duty Law (19 U.S.C. 1303), the Secretary of the Treasury is required to issue a preliminary determination within six months after a petition is received. The petition in this case was received March 10, 1975, and a notice to that effect was published in the Federal Register of April 30, 1975. The Treasury has until March 10, 1976 in which to issue a final determination. Treasury's preliminary affirmative determination indicates that bounties or grants are being paid or bestowed within the meaning of the statute. If a final affirmative determination is made, the Countervailing Duty Law requires the Secretary of the Treasury to assess an additional duty on merchandise benefiting from such bounties or grants. Notice of this action will appear in the Federal Register of September 11, 1975. During calendar year 1974, imports of the two castor oil products were valued at approximately $1 million. * * * * 'Departmental IheJREASURY ITON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 For information on submitting tenders: TELEPHONE W04-2604 J2^7 FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. ' September 10, 1975 TREASURY TO AUCTION $5.0 BILLION OF NOTES The Treasury will auction to the public $3.6 billion of 2-year notes, and $2.0 billion of 29-month notes. This will refund $2.0 billion of notes held by the public maturing September 30, and will raise $3.0 billion new cash. Additional amounts of the notes may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and to Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, which hold $0.1 billion of maturing notes. •-.•••.•• The notes to be auctioned will be: >. $3.0 billion of Treasury Notes of Series M-1977 dated September 30, 1975, due September 30, 1977 (CUSIP No. 912827 EX 6) with interest , payable on March 31:and September 30, and $2.0 billion Of Treasury Notes of Series G-1978 dated October 7, 1975, due February 28, 1978 (CUSIP No. 912827 EY 4) with interest payable February 29 and August 31, 1976, and thereafter on February 28 and August 31. -.•....«: The coupon rates will be determined.after tenders are allotted. The notes will be issued in registered and bearer form in denominations of ?5,000, $10,000, $100,000 and $1,000,000, and will be available for issue in bookmtry form.^Payment fOr the notes may not be made through tax and loan accounts. Tenders for the 2-year notes will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight laving time,;Tues4ay, September 16, and tenders for the 29-month notes will be received lip to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Wednesday, September 24, it any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, ). C. 20226; provided, however, that noncompetitive tenders will be considered timely eceived if they are mailed to any such agency under a postmark no later than eptember 15 for the 2-year notes and September 23 for the 29-month notes. Each ender must be in the amount of $5,000 or a multiple thereof, and all tenders must tate the yield desired, if a competitive tender, or the term "noncompetitive", if a loncompetitive tender. Fractions may not be used in tenders. The notation "TENDER 'OR TREASyRY NOTES (Series M-1977 or Series G-1978)" should be printed at the bottom 'f envelopes in which tenders are submitted. Competitive tenders must be expressed in terms of annual yield in two decimal laces, e.g., 7.11, and not in,terms of a price. Tenders at the lowest yields, and oncompetitive tenders, will be accepted to the extent required to attain the amounts ffered. After a determination is made as to which tenders are accepted, a coupon ield will be determined for each issue to the nearest 1/8 of 1 percent necessary to ake the average accepted prices 100.000 or less. Those will be the rates of interest hat will be paid on all of the securities of each issue. Based on such interest (OVER) 9' rates, the price on each competitive tender allotted will be determined and each successful competitive bidder will pay the price corresponding to the yield he bid. Price calculations will be carried to three decimal places on the basis of price per hundred, e.g., 99.923, and the determinations of the Secretary of the Treasury shall be final. Tenders at a yield that will produce a price less than 99.501 will not be accepted. Noncompetitive bidders will be required to pay the average price of accepted competitive tenders; the price will be 100.000 or less. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations noncompetitive tenders for $500,000 or less for each issue of notes will be accepted in full at the average price of accepted competitive tenders. Commercial banks, which for this purpose are defined as banks accepting demand deposits, and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, may submit tenders for the account of customers, provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from commercial and other banks for their own account, Federally-insured savings and loan associations, States, political subdivisions or instrumentalities thereof, public pension and retirement and other public funds, international organizations in which the United States holds membership, foreign central banks and foreign States, dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, Federal Reserve Banks, and Government accounts. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 5 percent of the face amount of notes applied for. However, bidders who submit checks in payment on tenders submitted directly to a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury may find it necessary to submit full payment for the notes with their tenders in order to meet the time limits pertaining to checks as hereinafter set forth. Allotment notices will not be sent to bidders who submit noncompetitive tenders. Payment for accepted tenders for the 2-year notes must be completed on or before Tuesday, September 30, 1975. Payment for accepted tenders for the 29-month notes must be completed on or before Tuesday, October 7, 1975. Payment must be in cash, 8-3/8% Treasury Notes of Series G-1975, which will be accepted at par, in other funds immediately available to the Treasury by the payment date or by check drawn to the order of the Federal Reserve Bank to which the tender is submitted, or the United States Treasury if the tender is submitted to it, which must be received at such Bank or at the Treasury no later than: (1) Thursday, September 25, 1975, for the 2-year notes and Thursday, October 2, 1975, for the 29-month notes if the check is drawn on a bank in the Federal Reserve District of the Bank to which the check is submitted, or the Fifth Federal Reserve District in case of the Treasury, or (2) Tuesday, September 23, 1975, for the 2-year notes and Tuesday, September 30, 1975, for the 29-month notes if the check is drawn on a bank in another district. Checks received after the dates set forth in the preceding sentence will not be accepted unless they are payable at a Federal Reserve Bank. Where full payment is not completed on time, the allotment will be canceled and the deposit with the tender up to 5 percent of the amount of notes allotted will be subject to forfeiture to the United States. Prospective Treasury Net Borrowing From The Public July - December 1975 ($ Billions) Bills Coupons Total Done to Date 13 8 1/2 21 1/2 Announced today: Additional September 23 bills 1 Additional September 30, 1911, 2-year cycle notes .February 28\, 1978 notes —2 Total Announced 1 —1 3 4 Planned (Specifics to be announced) Increase in October, November/ December 52-week bills ($1 billion each) Intermediate term note 2 1/2 October 31, 1977 note -3 Total planned ' 3 3~~ 5 1/2 1TT72 Remainder -7-10* 1 1/2-4 9 1/2-12 1/ Total Net Market Borrowing 24-27 18 1/2-21 43 1/2-46 1, Plus: Other (savings bonds, foreign nonmarketables, etc.) 1/2 Equals: Net Borrowing From the Public 44-47 •Regular and Cash Management Bills to be issued in October, November and December FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. ; -- September 10, 1975 TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for 364-day Treasury bills to be dated September 23, 1975, and to mature September 21, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 ZS8). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing September 23, 1975. Tenders in the amount of $1,940 million, or thereabouts, will be accepted from the public, which holds $934 million of the maturing bills. Additional amounts of the bills may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, which hold $ 869 million of the maturing bills. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value) and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Wednesday, September 17, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without (OVER) deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids. Settle- ment for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on September 23, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing equal treatment. September 23, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. The Treasury Department today announced that discussions were held in London from September 3 through 9, 1975, between representatives of the United States of America and the United Kingdom, about the conclusion of a new treaty for the avoidance of double taxation between the two countries. A wide measure of agreement was reached and it is anticipated that further talks will be held later this year in Washington, D.C, with the object of completing a treaty this year. oOo WS-379 Contact: L. F. Potts X8256 September 11, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY ANNOUNCES TENTATIVE REVOCATION OF DUMPING FINDING ON TEMPERED SHEET GLASS FROM JAPAN Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today a tentative determination to revoke a finding of dumping in the case of tempered sheet glass from Japan under the Antidumping Act, 1921, as amended. Notice of this decision will appear in the Federal Register of September 12, 1975. A finding of dumping with respect to tempered sheet glass from Japan was published in the Federal Register of September 25, 1971. The Federal Register notice of September 12, 1975, will state in part the finding that the sole exporter, Asahi Glass Company, Ltd., is no longer selling, or likely to sell, tempered sheet glass to the United States at less than fair value within the meaning of the Antidumping Act and that written assurances have been received that future sales of tempered sheet glass to the United States will not be made at less than fair value. Imports of tempered sheet glass during 1974 were valued at approximately $1.3 million. oOo REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON 3^/ SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY DEDICATION OF THE CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TRAINING CENTER 6LYNC0, GEORGIA, SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 GOVERNOR BUSBEE, SENAYOR TALMADGE, SENATOR NUNN, CONGRESSMAN GINN, DISTINGUISHED MEMBERS OF THE VISITING CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION, AND LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: IT IS A GREAT PERSONAL PLEASURE TO JOIN YOU HERE TODAY FOR THIS DEDICATION AND TO BE RECEIVED SO WARMLY. THE FRIENDLINESS AND HOSPITALITY OF THE PEOPLE OF GLYNN COUNTY, THE CITY OF BRUNSWICK AND THE GOLDEN ISLE COME AS NO SURPRISE TO ME OR TO MY WIFE, CAROL. WE SPENT OUR HONEYMOON HERE ON SEA ISLAND TWENTY FIVE YEARS AGO, AND IT HAS REMAINED ONE OF OUR FAVORITE SPOTS EVER SINCE. TODAY WE ARE GATHERED TO MARK THE OPENING OF THE NEW FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TRAINING CENTER. SOME 3,000 STUDENTS WILL BE TRAINED HERE THIS YEAR IN THE BASIC TECHNIQUES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT, AND BY 1977, THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN SOME 9,000 MEN AND WOMEN EVERY YEAR. THOSE GRADUATES WILL THEN BECOME THE FRONT-LINE OFFICERS FOR THE U.S. SECRET SERVICE, THE U.S. MARSHALS, THE CAPITOL POLICE, THE PARK POLICE, AND THE MANY OTHER' BRANCHES OF FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OTHER THAN THE FBI-. SOME OBSERVERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN CALLING THIS CENTER THE "WEST POINT OF LAW ENFORCEMENT" OR AS I THINK IT MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATELY CALLED, THE "CLTADEL OF LAW ENFORCEMENT." AND ALL OF US MUST SHARE THE HOPE THAT IT WILL LIVE UP TO THOSE EXPECTATIONS. CERTAINLY, THERE HAS RARELY BEEN A TIME WHEN OUR COUNTRY NEEDED MORE HIGHLY TRAINED AND QUALIFIED LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS THAN WE DO TODAY. AS CITIZENS WHO WANT TO PROTECT OURSELVES AND OUR FAMILIES, NONE OF US CAN TOLERATE THE RISING TIDE OF CRIME THAT IS ONCE AGAIN SWEEPING ACROSS OUR LAND. AS AMERICANS WHO BELIEVE IN FREEDOM, EACH OF US IS ALSO COMMITTED TO SAFEGUARDING THE CONSTITUTIONAL . 3- ^ 3 GUARANTEES OF THE ACCUSED. THESE ARE HIGH ASPIRATIONS — TO PROTECT THE FREEDOMS OF LAW-ABIDING CITIZENS WHILE ALSO PROTECTING THE RIGHTS OF THOSE WHO MAY VIOLATE THE LAW — AND IN THE VOLATILE, COMPLEX SOCIETY IN WHICH WE LIVE, THOSE ASP I RATIONS.CAN ONLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MAINTAINANCE OF A SUPERB TEAM OF LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS. THAT IS THE GOAL WE SEEK HERE. IF THERE CAN BE ANY DOUBT OF THE HEAVY RESPONSIBILITIES THAT WILL BE THRUST UPON THE GRADUATES OF THIS CENTER, YOU NEED ONLY REMEMBER THE INCIDENT JHAT OCCURRED LAST WEEK IN SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA. THE U.S. SECRET SERVICE ACTED SWIFTLY AND EFFECTIVELY DURING THOSE FEW TENSE SECONDS, AND WE MUST ENSURE THAT THOSE STANDARDS OF EXCELLENCE ARE CONTINUED INTO THE FUTURE. THE INSPIRATION AND MUCH OF THE CREDIT FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF THIS INSTITUTION IS OWED TO A VERY FINE CONGRESSMAN FROM - n- $*- OKLAHOMA, THE HONORABLE TOM STEED. TOM FORESAW MANY YEARS AGO THAT GREATER PROFESSIONALISM WOULD BE NEEDED IN THE NATION'S LAW ENFORCEMENT RANKS IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH.MUSHROOM- ING CRIME RATES. HE ALSO'RECOGNIZED THAT IF THE FRAGMENTARY TRAINING CENTERS WHICH THEN EXISTED COULD BE COMBINED INTO ONE FACILITY, WE WOULD PROVIDE FAR BETTER TRAINING FOR EACH OF OUR OFFICERS. THE WHOLE, AS HE SAW IT, WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE SUM OF ITS PARTS. FROM THIS VISION CAME THE CONCEPT OF THIS CENTER WITH THE GOAL THAT IT BECOME A FIRST-CLASS FACILITY WITH THE FINEST STAFF MEMBERS THAT EACH AGENCY COULD CONTRIBUTE. TOM PURSUED THAT GOAL FOR OVER A DECADE, AND NOW IT HAS COME TO FRUITION. TOM WOULD BE THE FIRST TO TELL YOU THAT THE PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEES OF BOTH THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE ALSO DESERVE OUR HEARTFELT APPRECIATION FOR HELPING TO FINANCE THIS CENTER. AS SENATOR NUNN HAS MENTIONED, WE LITERALLY WOULD NOT BE HERE TODAY BUT FOR THE INGENUITY OF THE PUBLIC -5- 3/^ WORKS COMMITTEES. INDEED, THE CREATION OF THIS NEW FACILITY IS ONE OF THE FINEST EXAMPLES I KNOW OF HOW MUCH CAN BE ACHIEVED WHEN THE CONGRESSIONAL AND EXECUTIVE BRANCHES WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER. THE WISDOM SHOWN IN CONVERTING AN EXISTING PUBLIC FACILITY INTO A NEW TRAINING CENTER HAS MEANT THAT THE LAW ENFORCEMENT TRAINING CENTER COULD OPEN LONG BEFORE ANY OF US EXPECTED. IT HAS ALSO MEANT A CONSIDERABLE SAVINGS TO THE TAXPAYER, SOMETHING WHICH ALL OF US CAN APPRECIATE TODAY. TODAY'S OPENING, OF COURSE, IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. DURING THE NEXT TWO YEARS, THERE WILL BE FURTHER CONSTRUCTION, AS A BUILDING. CONTAINING A FIREARMS RANGE IS COMPLETED AND ADDITIONAL REMODELING AND FINISHING OCCURS IN SEVERAL OF THE EXISTING STRUCTURES. IT PROMISES TO BE ONE OF THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE TRAINING CENTERS IN LAW ENFORCEMENT HISTORY. -6- ^ FOR THOSE OF us IN THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT WHO HAVE LONG LOOKED FORWARD TO THIS MOMENT, I WANT TO SAY HERE TODAY THAT WE ARE EXTREMELY GRATEFUL TO THE MANY FINE PEOPLE WHO HAVE NURSED ARID GUIDED THIS PROJECT TO SUCH A SUCCESSFUL OPENING — TO THE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS I HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED, TO OTHER MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WHO ARE WITH US ON THIS PLATFORM AND HAVE WORKED HARD ON THIS PROJECT, AND TO THE MANY FINE RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA WHO WILL BECOME OUR NEW NEIGHBORS, WE ARE DELIGHTED TO MAKE GEORGIA OUR NEW HOME. ONE 'OF GEORGIA'S FINEST CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE UNITED STATES AND ONE OF MY MOST DISTINGUISHED FRIENDS, THE HONORABLE HERMAN TALMADGE, HAS GIVEN A SPECIAL GIFT TO THE CENTER: A U.S. FLAG THAT HAS FLOWN OVER OUR NATIONAL CAPITOL IN WASHINGTON. ON BEHALF OF SENATOR TALMADGE, I NOW PRESENT THAT FLAG TO THE ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE CE;;TER, BOB EFTELAMD. MR. EFTELAND, I NOW DECLARE THAT THIS CONSOLIDATED LAW ENFORCEMENT TRAINING CENTER IS IN COMMISSION AS AN AGENCY OF THE UNITED "STATES TREASURY DEPARTMENT, DEDICATED TO THE PROTECTION OF FREEDOM AND THE PURSUIT OF JUSTICE. DepartmentoftheTREASURY OFFICE OF REVENUE SHARING WASHINGTON, D.C. 20226 TELEPHONE 634-5248 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 . FOR INFORMATION CALL: PRISCILLA R. CRANE (202) 634-5248 Over 5,000 governments in the United States have been notified by the U. S. Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing that their October revenue sharing checks cannot be mailed unless two required report forms are returned to the revenue sharing office by September 19th. The 5,673 places to which reminders have been sent range in size from San Bernardino County, California (which should receive $11,779,378) to the town of Silver Street, South Carolina ($260). A total of $251,890,952 could be delayed. Revenue sharing law requires that two one-page forms be published locally and filed with the Office of Revenue Sharing for each period of time in which funds are distributed. One of these is a Planned Use Report on which each recipient unit of government indicates its plans for use of funds it expects to receive for the coming period. The other is an Actual Use Report, due after June 30 of each year, on which each government reports its expenditures and other obligations of funds during the fiscal year just ended. "Some governments to which we have sent notices have returned one report and not the other. Both reports are required before the money can be released," John K. Parker, Acting Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing stated today. "Fortunately, fewer places are delinquent in returning the forms this year than was the case last year. We hope that most of the late filers1 reports will be received in time for them to receive i their October checks on schedule," he added. The Planned Use Report which is required to be filed before the October 1975 checks can be mailed was sent to all of the nearly 39,000 revenue sharing recipients in April of this year. It was due to be returned in June. The latest Actual Use Report was mailed to all eligible governments in June and was due in the Office of Revenue Sharing by September 1, 1975. The October checks represent the first quarterly payment of Entitlement Period Six (July 1, 1975 to June 30, 1976) revenue sharing funds. Shared revenues are distributed in periods specified by law. The money for each period is paid on a quarterly basis: in October, January, April and July. Funds may not be released to any government that has not filed properly-completed reports. The money is released with the next regularly-scheduled payment after the reports are received. The State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 which established the general revenue sharing program, authorizes the distribution of $30.2 billion in five years, from 1972 through December 1976. All units of general-purpose government in the United States are eligible to receive the funds. Department of theJREASURY INGT0N,D.C. 20220 ELEPHONE 964-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 12, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.7 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.9 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on September 18, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: 26-week bills maturing March 18, 1976 RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing December 18, 1975 High Low Average Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ 98.387 a/ 98.367 98.371 6.381% 6.460% 6.444% 6.59% 6.68% 6.66% Price 96.552 96.498 96.511 Discount Rate Investv ent Rate 1/ 6.820% 6.927% 6.901% 7.18% 7.30% 7.27% a/ Excepting 1 tender of $4,155,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 57%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 73%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received Boston $ 43,455,000 New York 3 ,894,185,000 56,570,000 Philadelphia Cleveland 161,365,000 70,585,000 Richmond 60,755,000 Atlanta 284,170,000 Chicago 49,550,000 St. Louis 16,715,000 Minneapolis 63,865,000 Kansas City 87,610,000 Dallas San Francisco 244,345,000 TOTALIS,033,170,000 Received Accepted $ 29,910,000 2,113,475,000 28,140,000 36,365,000 63,155,000 56,755,000 113,025,000 31,850,000 11,855,000 61,535,000 26,030,000 129,145,000 $ 25,255,000 3,561,085,000 9,070,000 135,030,000 39,215,000 43,750,000 283,940,000 33,780,000 12,840,000 30,655,000 27,070,000 247,345,000 $2,701,240,000 b/$4,449,035,000 '__ Accepted $ 15,255,000 2,364,765,000 9,070,000 34,330,000 39,215,000 40,750,000 127,940,000 26,510,000 12,840,000 26,155,000 24,800,000 178,805,000 $2,900,435,000^/ b/Includes $405,905,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. c/lncludes $ 197,115,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. Contact: Richard Self x8256 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 15, 1975 TREASURY DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCES COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATION ON IMPORTED SCREWS FROM ITALY Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today the initiation of a countervailing duty investigation against imported screws from Italy. A "Notice of Receipt of Countervailing Duty Petition and Initiation of Investigation" will be published in the Federal Register of September 16, 1975. Under the U.S. Countervailing Duty Law (19 U.S.C. 1303) the Secretary of the Treasury is required to assess an additional customs' duty which is equal to the amount of the "bounty or grant" that has been found to be paid or bestowed on imported merchandise. The Law requires that a final decision as to the existence or nonexistence of a bounty or grant be issued by no later than 12 months upon the date of receipt of the countervailing duty petition. A preliminary determination to this effect is required under the Law by no later than 6 months after the date of the receipt of the petition. The investigation of imports of screws from Italy stems from a petition received on behalf of domestic industry that this merchandise receives "bounties or grants" in the form of rebates under Italian Law 639. The Treasury has until February 11, 1976 to issue a preliminary determination as to whether a bounty or grant exists. A final determination must be rendered by no later than August 11, 1976. During calendar year 1974 imports of screws from Italy totaled approximately $1.9 million. * * * * FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY $ & ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM Et SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE 197 5 SOUTHERN GOVERNORS CONFERENCE WALT DISNEY WORLD, FLORIDA, SEPTEMBER 15, 1975 11:00 A.M. EDT It's certainly good to be here today among so many old friends. One of the greatest pleasures I have had in public life is to come to know and work with the governors in this assembly, and I can tell you there is no single group of gentlemen in this country whose company I more greatly enjoy or respect. Some of the old hands in Washington are beginning to tell me that the combination of Southern Governors and Bill Simon goes together almost as well as bourbon and branch water. Your very fine host, Governor Askew, suggested that I might talk with you today about the nation's economic prospects — present and future. I know that Senator Mansfield has already covered some of this ground, but it may be helpful to see it again from a somewhat different perspective. In my view, we have now reached one of the most delicate periods in the process of recovery. As the economy begins its upward climb, it is bound to produce a mixture of good and bad news. Most of the statistics on economic growth will point upwards, but a few will continue to cause doubts. As reflected by the stock market and recent consumer surveys, some observers are already jittery, worrying that the recovery will never get off the ground or that we may crash in the jagged peaks of inflation. Inevitably, there will be growing political pressures -- especially as Washington is seized with election fever -- to adopt much more expansionary policies. Washington is not ideally equipped to deal with these pressures. Time and again in the past, when the choice had to be made between sound economic policies and popular political ones, we have succumbed to the wrong instincts. Both Democrats and Republicans have made the same mistakes. And the result has been a sad record of stop-and-go policies that have only accentuated the forces of expansion and WS-380 contraction and, in fact, must be held accountable for a significant amount of our current economic troubles. In view of that record and considering the vigor of the recovery that is now underway, I would suggest that this is not a time for "politics as usual" — not for fancy, headlinecatching action in Washington — but for a calm, steady hand on the tiller. We must not be rigid in our approach. In coming weeks, for instance, we must decide whether to extend the recent tax cut and it is important that we maintain an open mind on that issue. But contrary to past practice, I would hope that our answer would be dictated more by economic than by political considerations. Earlier this week I asked one of the top economists in the government about his views on the tax question, and he said, "I've been in the government so long that I'm not sure whether my opinions are based on economics or politics." While that surely happens to the best, it is a tendency we must learn to resist. The recovery that we've experienced in the last several months does, I believe, provide solid grounds for encouragement. It came earlier and it has been stronger than most forecasters predicted, and I think that it will continue to be stronger and that the unemployment rate will come down more rapidly than many now think. Let's look for a moment at the dimensions of the recovery: — 1.5 million jobs have been added to the work force since March. -- The unemployment rate has held steady at 8.4% for two months in a row, significantly below the 9.2% peak reached in May. -- After sliding downwards for five consecutive quarters, including a decline of 11.4% on an annualized basis during the first quarter of this year, the Gross National Product has reversed course, rising at a 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter. -- The composite of 12 leading economic indicators has now moved up strongly for five months in a row. -- Inventories have been sharply reduced, opening the way to rising production levels. -- And exports are up considerably. - 3Moreover, the Government is supplying a great deal more stimulus to the economy than most people realize. You will often read that the $44 billion deficit incurred by the Federal Government in fiscal year ]975 resulted from a loss of revenue caused by the recession. That is partially true. But it is also true that Federal outlays during that year were $56 billion higher than the year before — a 2] percent increase and the biggest single percentage increase in more than two decades. Monetary policy has also been stimulative as the total of currency and bank demand deposits — the M-^ money supply, as it is called by economists — has increased at an annualized rate of over 8-1/2% the first half of this year. A compilation of 21 well-known, private economic models show that 10 of them now predict that real growth in the third quarter will be over 5 percent, and 10 of them show it will be in excess of 6 percent. Similar growth patterns are foreseen for the fourth quarter and into 1976. Within the government itself, we now anticipate a moderate to strong expansion of real output extending through the second half of the year into 1976. And if we act prudently, we believe that the recovery will be both sustained and vigorous beyond that time. I hasten to re-emphasize the need for prudence, because there are certainly a number of shoals ahead and we must be careful to avoid them. The most obvious is the renewed threat of inflation. The inflationary surge that we've experienced in the last few weeks is directly related to increases in energy and ood costs and we are hopeful that it will be only a bubble, quickly passing out of the system. But it is also a grim reminder that even the most severe recession in more than a generation has not fully defeated the forces of inflation. Indeed, the rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index so far this year has averaged ™ore than 6-7%, more than triple the rate that I would consider acceptable over the long-run. And the last WPI figures also brought the first significant increase in industrial prices. A prolonged seige of new, double-digit inflation would almost certainly wreck our hopes for a durable economic recovery. We must never forget that excessive inflation was the basic cause of the recession and that it remains our most fundamental economic problem. Administration critics argue that our concern with inflation reflects an insensitivity toward jobs and the poor: to the contrary, it is only by - 4conquering inflation that we are going to achieve the longrange growth that is essential for the creation of new jobs. We do not have the luxury of choosing between jobs and inflation: experience teaches us that we must pursue both of these goals simultaneously. As we continue to stimulate the economy, then, it is essential that we also take extreme care in avoiding policy excesses which would whip up the inflationary forces that still plague our economy. For policy purposes, this means three things: (1) We must maintain a stout defense against continuing efforts to bust the Federal budget. Earlier this year the country applauded as the President succeeded in vetoing several bills that would have cost the taxpayers an additional $6 billion before 1977. It has not been widely noticed, however, that since that time the Congress has begun to make serious inroads on the President's deficit ceiling of $60 billion. In fact, there is now a considerable question of whether the Congress can contain itself within its own target of a $68.8 billion deficit. The senate keeps a scorecard on Congressional budget activities of the Congress, and in their most recent report they conceded that the Congress could overshoot its own target by almost $5 billion. If the Congress can do no better job in disciplining itself under the new budgetary process, then all of us are going to have to start looking for some better solutions. (2) We must press forward in the effort to adopt a comprehensive national energy policy -- a policy that will generate more energy supplies without generating significantly higher degrees of inflation. This Administration has had such a policy before the Congress for nearly nine months now. We have offered more compromises to the Congress than I care to remember, and we stand ready to compromise now. But at some point the Congress must pull itself together and join us in this effort, or like Samson, we're going to give it all away to those Delilahs of the Middle East. The President has indicated his willingness to work with the Congress to enact a decontrol plan for domestic oil, but we are fully prepared to go forward without controls if - 5- 3rd no Congressional action is soon forthcoming. At the same time, we want to work with the Congress, with the Governors, and with the private sector in arriving at better answers to our natural gas problem. And let me add that one of the best forums in the country for finding solutions to the natural gas problem is right here: several of you represent states that could be the hardest hit by natural gas shortages this winter while others of you represent the nation's leading producers. We ask you to join with us in proceeding down two different legislative tracks regarding natural gas. First, we must seek legislation that would help to ease the immediate shortages . As you know, this country has allowed the natural gas issue to drift so long that it will not be possible to end all shortages this winter, but we must do what we can to alleviate them. Toward that end, the President sent a four-part bill to the Congress last week, and I commend it to your attention. The second track — and one that must not be lost in the debates over a short-term answer — is to achieve the long-term goal of total deregulation. We are firmly for deregulation; many of you support deregulation; now we must persuade the country and the Congress that it is an idea whose time has come. (3) We must draw a hard line against price increases by the OPEC bloc. The prices they are charging now cannot be justified on either economic or financial grounds; they are politically determined and, truth to tell, they amount to political blackmail. As I have stressed on other occasions, I believe that another major increase in their prices this fall would seriously jeopardize the balance upon which worldwide recovery now depends. Two weeks ago, I had a chance to talk with the OPEC finance ministers, and I was encouraged by a sense of moderation and realism that most of them displayed. But the question of another increase is not yet resolved; until it is, the United States must leave no doubt about its views. The problems of inflation, then, arise in many different ways -- in government spending practices, in questions of domestic energy policy, and in international oil prices -and we must work on all of these fronts at the same time. Still another immediate concern with regard to the recovery, and one that is related to inflation, has been the pattern of rising interest rates. More than six months ago, when we began warning that private borrowers might be crowded out of the market by the government, we were hotly roasted by many of the apologists for big government spending. Their models, they said, showed that interest rates would decline and private borrowers would be able to obtain ample funds. But the fact is that the "crowding out" that concerned us has already started. Furthermore, there has been an accentuation of the "flight to quality" that we have seen in the financial markets in the recent past. Funds are still available to high quality borrowers, but many lower quality borrowers are finding that they no longer have access to the market at prices they can afford. Looking down the road, a continuation of this trend would spell very serious trouble, for the future growth of the economy. For now, it is imperative that the Federal Government not act to increai inflationary expectations and thus drive interest rates higher than they are already. A third area of immediate concern for all of us must be consumer confidence. While I do not place full faith and credit in the results of public polls, they do bear watching and recently they have shown a sag in public expectations. One polling official visited some officials in the Treasury Department last week and said that most of the current concern has been fanned by the reappearance of inflation. I need not remind you that a precipitous drop in consumer sentiments, touched off by the wave of double-digit inflation, was a major element in bringing the last recession. It would be tragic to let that happen again. Instead, it is clear to me that we must follow the same policy prescriptions that I have suggested earlier: strong, steady policies that support the forces of recovery but carefully avoid the excesses thai would rekindle inflation. I could continue at some length on current problems and prospects, but let me turn for a moment to longer-range and even more fundamental concerns. I have, as you can see, a high degree of confidence in the immediate future. I am, however, increasingly troubled by what may lie a few years beyond the horizon. I do not believe that our economic nor our financial mechanisms can withstand a continual battering for the next five or ten years without suffering rather severe consequences; and let there be no doubt: serious damage to our economic system would most assuredly be a body blow to our political system as well. I spoke with you about my concerns at the National Governors Conference earlier this year, but let me re-emphasize a few of them. - 7- 3& X £ J w CI ;-., ,1 -V --Our economic and financial institutions, I believe, cannot tolerate a prolonged period of inflation in the double-digit or high single-digit range: K * ~~-.aonY cfnnot create the 11 million new jobs we need before 1980 unless far more of our resources are pumped into new capital investments. ^ p .ln . ~~Jhe? cannot survive higher and higher degrees of llliquidity. * — They cannot grow and prosper if there is a continual depression in profits. — They cannot operate efficiently and imaginatively if they are strangled in a growing web of government regula3 tions . -- And they cannot survive the political pressures of a restive society unless they regain public esteem and attract many of the brightest and most able of our young people. None of these trends will be easy to reverse. Their ^ U S u S v ? f e <?eep-seated and have built up over a long period. The habit of excessive governmental spending, which lies at the root of so many of our difficulties, extends back for years: we have had ]4 Federal deficits in the last ]5 years, and 40 in the last 48 years. The sins of a decade or more will not be forgiven by a single day or even by a single year of penance. $1 The critical point is that we get started — that we begin working to slow and then reverse the patterns. And we should be acting now, not two or three years hence when the problems could be significantly bigger and more difficult to master. If we wait too long, the solutions that will be forced upon us will make a mockery of the traditions that we hold dear in this country. The first rumblings for new wage and price controls can already be heard in Washington. Indeed, the wolf of Big Government is nearing our door, and it will not be driven off unless we act soon. Late in July, I went before the House Ways and Means Committee to propose some rather fundamental changes in our tax code that would encourage a higher rate of capital formation — or as the President aptly calls it, a new program of job formation. It was obvious that we would meet with stiff opposition both in the Congress and in the press, and we knew the chances were slim that Chairman Ullman and his committee would act on our proposal before the end of the year. But it was important, we thought, to generate a more serious public debate about capital formation and to begin laying the groundwork for the changes that are so clearly needed in the future. This is the posture that I believe must be taken by all of us here: to be forthright about the crucial choices that our nation must make and to be aggressive in pursuing our desired ends. There can be no question about how far this country has wandered from its moorings. Economic freedom is now on the line; political freedom is on the line; and personal freedom is on the line. And if people who believe in those freedoms aren't willing to stand up and fight for them, who will? As national leaders, as great patriots, and as the chief executives of a region that has overcome some of the most troublesome problems in our country's history, you represent one of the best hopes of America. I deeply believe in you and in the contribution that you can make. Through our personal contacts and through the office that we have set up in the Treasury to maintain a liaison with you -- an office that I am happy to see many of you using — I am committed to working closely with each of you. Great decisions lie before this nation -- decisions that could shape the lives of our children and our children's children. Let each of us act as a trustee of their future. Thank you. # # # # # # # # CONTACT: GEORGE G. ROSS 202-964-5985 Sept 16 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THE UNITED STATES AND THE REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA HOLD DISCUSSIONS ON AN INCOME TAX TREATY The Treasury Department today announced that representatives of the United States and the Republic of Tunisia held preliminary discussions in Washington September 2 through September 4 to consider entering into an income tax treaty. Representatives of the two countries plan to meet in Tunis in the Spring of 1976 to begin formal discussions of a proposed bilateral income tax treaty. At present there is no income tax convention between the two countries. The proposed treaty is intended to prevent double taxation and to facilitate trade and investment between the two countries. "It will be concerned with the tax treatment of income of individuals and companies from business, investment, and personal services, and the procedures for administering the provisions 3 of the treaty. The "model" income tax treaty developed by the Organization =efor Economic Cooperation and Development will be taken into '"account along with recent U.S. treaties with other countries, such as the treaty with Norway, which entered into force in 1972 and the treaties with Trinidad and Tobago and Japan, which entered into force in 1971 and 1972, respectively. Persons wishing to make comments and suggestions about the discussion to be held with representatives of Tunisia should i submit their views in writing to Charles M. Walker, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, U.S. Treasury Department, Washington, O.C. 20220. This announcement appears in the Federal Register of September 16, 1975. # S-381 # # # I department of theJREASURY NGTON, D.C. 20220 FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. September 16, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, b / this public notice, invites tenders for y two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,500,000,000 > thereabouts, to be issued or September 25, 1975, as follows: 92-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,700,000,000* or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated June 26, 1975, and to mature December 26, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 YD2 ), originally issued in the amount of $2,301,675,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,800,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated September 25, 1975, and to mature March 25, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YZ3 ) . The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing September 25, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,502,295,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $1,818,270,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, September 22, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) foe DepartmentoftheTREASURY TELEPHONE 964-204 HINGTON,DX. 20220 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 17, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL AUCTION Tenders for $1,940,000,000 of 52-week Treasury bills to be issued to the public, to be dated September 23, 1975, a n d to mature September 21, 1976, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: (Excepting 3 tenders totaling $3,000,000) Price High Low Average - 92.611 92.568 92.580 Discount Rate 7.308% 7.350% 7.338% Investment Rate (Equivalent Coupon-Issue Yield) 7.87% 7.92% 7.90% TOTAL TENDERS FROM THE PUBLIC RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS District Received Accepted Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco $ 102,985,000 3,558,705,000 34,900,000 297,030,000 84,195,000 22,180,000 432,820,000 45,235,000 99,870,000 42,200,000 35,985,000 459,065,000 $ 50,475,000 1,257,720,000 33,900,000 137,360,000 41,195,000 13,805,000 134,950,000 19,235,000 51,870,000 26,180,000 8,585,000 164,895,000 TOTAL $5,215,170,000 $1,940,170,000 The $1,940,170,000 of accepted tenders includes 33% of the amount of bills bid for at the low price and $184,420,000 of noncompetitive tenders from the public accepted at the average price. In addition, $918,035,000 of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. Statement of the Honorable William E. Simon Secretary of the Treasury Before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Currency and Housing House of Representatives September 18, 1975, 10:00 A.M., 2128 RHOB Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, I am pleased to appear on behalf of the Administration to urge that you favorably report H.R. 8175, authorizing U.S. participation in the Financial Support Fund to be established in association with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. During the past two years, the international economy has experienced a series of severe shocks arising from multifold oil price increases and from rampant world-wide inflation followed by a steep economic downturn. Traditionally international payments patterns have undergone the sharpest and most abrupt shifts the world has seen in the post-war period. Within months of the oil price increase, developed nations as a group, accustomed to exporting capital and transfering real resources to the developing world, were experiencing large trade and current account deficits with the resultant need for external borrowing. While the larger, stronger countries greatly improved their position in the early part of this year, the gains were temporary and, for most, deficits are again in prospect. Many non-oil exporting developing countries, already faced with heavy capital requirements and debt burdens, are seeing their development programs endangered by the need to finance higher oil import costs. The reflection of these changes is the emergence of a relatively few oil exporting countries as major international creditors and investors. Their large collective financial surplus poses potentially major financing problems in the period immediately ahead. The Support Fund represents an urgent and necessary response to the financial and economic problems posed by massive increases in the price of oil. It will provide an WS-382 essential element of financial cooperation to complement cooperation in economic and energy on the part of the major industrial nations. And policy it is adapted to the p - 2- nature of the immediate financing problems, in that it provides contingency insurance against a threat which we hope will not materialize but which nevertheless is real and serious. The participation of the United States in the Support Fund will underline our commitment to a cooperative international economic order. I am convinced that the establishment of this Fund is in the best interest of the United States, and that it warrants the strong and unified support of the United States Government. Basic Principles of the Support Fund Proposals The Agreement to establish the Support Fund originated in parallel proposals developed by the United States and by the Secretary General of the OECD. The Administration's decision to propose a Financial Support Fund, and the bill before the Subcommittee today, reflect our belief that the major industrial oil consuming countries must join a cooperative response to their common economic and financial problems. The proposals for a Financial Support Fund have their roots in intense worldwide concern that the oil importing world would not be able to manage the financial and economic consequences of the oil price increases. To date, the oil consuming countries have been able to do so. But with today's extremely high oil prices, there is a continuing and serious danger that a country could be moved to adopt inappropriate policies by the unavailabilityof financing on reasonable terms --or even out of concern that financing would not be available in the future -- and that other countries would respond in kind to protect their own positions. We are fortunate that widespread resort to restrictive and aggressive practices, such as restrictions on trade and investment, has been avoided thus far. With certain exceptions, oil importing countries have refrained from restrictive controls and have managed their affairs in a way that has not shifted great burdens on to others -- in part because the more flexible exchange rate arrangements now in place have allowed for greater adaptability to changing international circumstances, in part because capital markets and existing financing arrangements have worked well in facilitating the flow of credit to those in need, and in part because of the temporarily reduced import demand resulting from the world-wide recession. - 3 - w We cannot expect that this will continue to be the case. Economic recovery will stimulate import demand. The disruption and imbalances caused by the oil price increases remain serious. Countries may in some cases be approaching the limits of prudent use of their reserves or of existing sources of credit, and there is no certainty that financing will remain available to individual countries in adequate amounts on reasonable terms. Our ability to maintain an open and liberal trade and payments system is not assured. For this reason we feel that a supplemental official financing arrangement is required at this time -- a particular kind of financing arrangement. We are opposed to the suggestions which have been put forward for a more or less open-ended official financing facility, utilizing special incentives to attract the oil exporters' funds, and displacing private markets and other existing channels. We favor a different concept, and the proposed Support Fund is based on a different set of principles, as follows: First, we do not want a permanent official financing mechanism. The oil financing problem we foresee is large in magnitude but limited in duration. The buildup of OPEC's financial claims on the rest of the world will taper off -and eventually end - - a s the world's efforts to conserve energy and to develop alternative supplies reduce the costs of oil imports, and as the oil exporting countries rapidly increase their own imports to meet development needs. Our assessment is that the largest annual imbalances between the oil importing and oil exporting country groups have already occurred, and that the imbalances will diminish and disappear altogether by the end of this decade. The OPEC surplus of $60 billion last year is expected to fall to around the $40 billion range this year. The real effects of the oil price increase -- the economie dislocations and forced adjustments, the transfers of real resources to the oil exporting countries as they utilize their financial claims -- will persist. But the financing problem is transitional, temporary, and if we act with foresight, manageable. As a permanent body, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should and will continue to serve as the central source of multilateral official payments financing for a well-functioning world economy. For the transitory, though potentially large, financing demand we foresee in the - 4period immediately ahead, it is neither desirable to create a permanent new mechanism, nor to graft on to the IMF's permanent liquidity structure the capacity to meet such a demand. Thus, the Financial Support Fund is temporary. It will cease new loan operations after two years by which time the period of potential exceptional need should have passed. Second, we believe that any new official arrangement should not displace or preempt existing private or official financing channels, and should come into play only in the event alternative financing channels fail to meet the need. Existing financial arrangements, private and official, are working well and adapting well to the demands placed on them. We believe that they will continue to operate well in the future. And by providing confidence in the underpinnings of the system as a whole, the existence of the Support Fund will strengthen the operations of the private markets. The Financial Support Fund is expressly designed as an insurance mechanism, a supplemental "safety net," that will be activated only' in the event alternative sources of financing prove inadequate, and only after a potential borrower has made the fullest appropriate use of alternative sources of financing available. Third, we believe that any new financing arrangement must provide discipline as well as insurance. It must address the sources of countries' economic problems -energy, economic management -- not just the financial symptoms. A fundamental requirement for participation in the Support Fund is a commitment to cooperation in energy and economic policy. Any loans extended by the Financial Support Fund will carry specific policy conditions, related both to a borrower's general e onomic policy and its energy policy. Before receiving a loan, a country must satisfy a large majority of the Governing Committee not only that it has a genuine need for funds and has made appropriate use of other sources of financing, but also that it has in place measures adequate to redress its problems. Selection of the OECD as the organizational framework for the Support Fund provides a parallel with the use of the OECD as the framework for the International Energy Agency. Fourth, we believe any new financial arrangements should avoid offering the oil exporters special financial or economicincentives to invest their funds in the markets of the participating countries. Such incentives are not necessary and would serve only to increase the effective cost of oil to the oil importing world. The oil exporters already have a strong incentive to place the bulk of their financial surpluses in the capital markets of the major countries of the OECD -- there is little practical alternative -- and markets in the recipient countries in most cases prove to be capable of "reshuffling" the funds among borrowers if distributional problems do arise. Finally, we believe that any new financial arrangement established- to protect against a common danger must provide for full and equitable sharing of risks. The Financial Support Fund has elaborate provisions to assure that all risk is shared in proportion to countries'agreed quotas. In summary, the principles on which the Support Fund is based are appropriate to the international economic situation and needs in the wake of the oil price increases: It is temporary, not a permanent new piece of international financial machinery; It is an insurance mechanism which will be used only in event of demonstrated need, not a competitor to private markets; It provides discipline. It addresses nations' real economic problems, not financial symptoms, and requires appropriate policies -- in both the energy and general economic ares -- to deal with their real problems. It is based on cooperation among the major oil importing countries, and does not depend on the agreement or active assistance of the oil exporting nations. It thus allows the oil importing nations to pursue cooperation in energy without excessive financial dependence on the oil exporting countries. It is a cooperative response to mutual problems of the oil importing nations. It recognizes that the dangers faces are faced by all, and incorporates an equitable sharing of risk as an integral part of its operations. U.S. Participation in the Operations of the Fund The Support Fund will consist of national commitments totaling 20 billion special drawing rights, equivalent to approximately $24 billion at present exchange rates, to backstop financing needs. Each member will have a quota in the Support Fund that will determine: Its share in financing loans made by the Fund; Its share in risks on loans made by the Fund; Its voting rights (each member has a number of votes proportional to its quota) Its maximum financial liability to the Fund; and Its access to the resources of the Fund. The proposed U.S. quota is SDR 5,560 million, or approximately $6.6 billion at the present SRD-dollar rate. The U.S. quota represents 27.8 percent of total quotas, which are apportioned on the basis of participants' relative weights on world GNP and trade. All countries' financial rights and obligations with respect to the Support Fund will be denominated in the Special Drawing Right of the IMF. A common denominator is essential to assure that countries' relative contributions to the Support Fund do not change as a result of changes in exchange rates, and to assure that the fundamental risk sharing objectives of the Support Fund are met. The SDR, valued in terms of a collection of major currencies, was chosen as the common denominator because it is a "neutral" accounting unit, under which all participants accept some of the exchange risk inevitable in international financial operations. The SDR does not give special treatment to any currency or country, as would be the case if an individual national currency were used, and thus represents an equitable exchange risk sharing arrangement. Because the Support Fund operates as an insurance mechanism, resources will not be required until a specific need arises. Commitments would be on a stand-by basis -that is, there would be no "paid-in" capital, but an undertaking on the part of each member to participate in financing a loan which the Support Fund decides to make to a member in need. Loans by the Support Fund will be financed in either of two ways: through borrowings by the Support Fund on world financial markets, on the basis of the collective 37/ guarantee of all members; or by "individual commitments" of members. The technique to be used for a given loan will be determined by the Governing Committee of the Support Fund at the time of the decision to make the loan. In each case, calls on members for financing will be in proportion to their quota shares of the loan to be financed. In the case of individual commitments, each country will have the option of extending a loan directly to the Support Fund to cover its share of the financing, or providing an individual guarantee to allow borrowing by the Support Fund in the amount of that member's share. We expect to utilize the second, or guarantee, option for the U.S. share of any individual commitments approved by the Support Fund, and we believe that this is also the intent of most other participants. The proposed legislation thus provides for the United States to meet its financial commitments to the Support Fund through the issuance of guarantees -- individual or collective. The United States would actually have to transfer funds under these guarantees only if a member that has borrowed from the Support Fund failed to make a payment on the corresponding loan. In the unlikely event the U.S. should decide to extend a direct loan to the Support Fund -- for example, if the markets were very unsettled or if there were an immediate crisis need for funds -- the United States could make a direct loan from the resources of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) pursuant to existing authority. Thus no further authorization need be included in the proposed legislation. The resources of the ESF could also be used to meet the obligation of the United States on its individual or collective guarantees to make immediate transfers of amounts due. This bill authorizes appropriations to replenish the resources of the ESF if used for transfers to the Support Fund for either of these purposes. Appropriations would be sought if needed and as needed. Since we doubt that it will ever be necessary to use ESF resources for these purposes, we do not believe it is necessary or desirable to seek appropriations now, in anticipation of unpredictable and highly contingent obligations. 3/JZ Areas of Concern Mr. Chairman, let me respond to several concerns about the Support Fund that have been expressed by some members of Congress. One concern is that the availability of this source of credit to the major industrial countries might be construed by OPEC members as evidence that oil importers are able to pay higher oil prices and thus encourage them to raise prices more or faster than would otherwise be the case. I disagree with this interpretation. The Support Fund should not have the effect of encouraging oil exporters to raise or maintain their prices; it is designed to have the reverse effect. The most effective strategy for reducing oil prices is to promote economic security as an underpinning for cooperative action in the energy area. The provision of financing through the Support Fund would be for overall balance of payments needs -- not for making oil payments -- and would be conditioned on cooperative policies in the energy area to reduce dependence on over-priced imported oil. The consequences of a failure to provide needed financing would probably not fall primarily on oil imports, but would much more likely take the form of harmful trade and capital restrictions and excessive currency depreciation which sould stimulate successive rounds of retaliation, or inappropriately restrictive domestic policies. A second concern is that the Support Fund is dedicated to helping the strongest economic powers instead of concentrating U.S. efforts on the poorest countries. In recent weeks we have again demonstrated the depth of our commitment to assisting the developing countries through proposals for cooperation and assistance in a variety of multilateral forums. The Support Fund is obviously directed in the first instance to the developed countries But this does not mean that the Support Fund is irrelevant to the needs of the developing nations. The Support Fund will make a major contribution to the developing countries by supporting economic recovery in the industrial nations and the maintenance of an open and liberal world economy. There is nothing that we can do for the LDCs directly through aid that is going to be nearly as important as our ability to sustain a vigorously expanding and non-inflationary world economy. The Support Fund is also an integral part of the cooperative international response to the energy situation which has had such severe effects on the LDCs. - 9- 57-5 At the same time, it is appropriate to emphasize that the Support Fund is not a foreign aid device. It is a mutual insurance arrangement, where the major nations can cooperate to protect against the risk of financial and economic disruption that would have disastrous consequences for the entire world economy. All nations will benefit, and all participants will share the costs and risks involved in its operations. The United States, if the need arose, would have the same rights to draw on the Support Fund as any other participant. The Support Fund will lend only at market rates of interest. Its loans will be mediumterm, seven years at a maximum, and will carry effective policy conditions. The aim is to assure that financing will be available -- not that it will be available on the concessional terms of an aid program. A third concern is that the Support Fund seems to place all of the financing risk on the OECD countries, and does not require the oil producers to bear some of the risks and share some of the responsibilities for dealing with the problems their policies have created. It has been suggested that oil exporter participation in the Support Fund, or an expansion of the IMF's special oil facility, might be preferable. Actually, the Support Fund reduces risk to the oil importers -the risk that they might be forced to accept onerous economic or political conditions as a price for needed financing. It frees the oil importers from a dependency that could weaken their resolve to participate in a cooperative response to the energy situation, which is a basic objective of the Support Fund. It would be anomolous to invite the exporters to help shape that response. - 10 - There is no way to compel the oil exporting nations to accept the risk of lending to particular countries. The oil producing nations have -- and should have -- the freedom to invest where they wish, accepting the normal risk associated with investment. And they have been making a number of investments in the form of loans to OECD member countries. On these loans they take the normal risk. We welcome such arrangements. But the Support Fund will give the borrowing countries an alternative to dependence on OPEC loans and thus put them in a position to resist demands on the part of OPEC lenders which would give them excessive influence over the policies of the borrowers. For my part, I am persuaded that the OECD group, whose members share a fundamental harmony of interests, is the preferable forum for development of a cooperative and effective response to the energy and economic problems of the oil importing nations. I should note also that the IMF oil facility does not require the oil exporters to assume risk. Repayment of their loans to the oil facility -- which at present carry reasonably favorable rates of interest as well as a form of exchange value protection -is guaranteed, essentially by the quota subscriptions of the industrial nations. If a borrower from the oil facility were to default, the lenders to the oil facility would nevertheless be repaid on schedule. The oil facility is thus an attractive, no risk investment outlet. Moreover, if the IMF were to become significantly dependent on credit from the oil exporters, these countries could gain considerable influence over the IMF's general policies and operations at little cost. A fourth concern is that there be adequate reporting to the Congress on the status of Support Fund operations and U.S. participation. The Annual Reports of the National Advisory Council and the Secretary of the Treasury will include a section on the operations of the Support Fund. The Congress will also receive information on Support Fund transactions, to the extent of any U.S. obligations to the Fund, in the annual report transmitted to the Congress on The Exchange Stabilization Fund. We have every desire to keep the Congress informed on the Support Fund, and should the Committee have any other suggestions to improve reporting on the work of the Fund, I would be pleased to receive them. Nature of the U.S. Commitment We remain committed to the International Monetary Fund as the central world multilateral help assure functioning economy.institution A suitablytoexpanded and a well- -11 - nr reformed IMF provides the permanent framework for economic and financial cooperation. Negotiations to strengthen its ability to perform this function are nearing completion. Two of three major components of the monetary negotiations have been settled. The Interim Committee, at its recent meeting, made a major breakthrough in reaching agreement on increases in the quotas of almost all members, and on arrangements for phasing gold out of the monetary system. The Interim Committee will now seek to develop acceptable amendments to the IMF's exchange rate provisions by the time of its next meeting in January, so that action can be taken on the complete package of quotas and amendments that have been under consideration. I am confident that this objective can be met. I am also confident that the spirit of cooperation inherent in the Support Fund has contributed importantly to the atmosphere of cooperation and good will surrounding the monetary negotiations in the IMF -- where concessions and compromise on matters of longer term significance for the system have been required of all. In essence, the Support Fund is designed to provide confidence: Confidence to participants in their ability to handle their own economic and financial .problems, and to deal with their energy-related financing needs, without dependence on the oil exporting countries; and Confidence to the private markets in the strength and integrity of the system as a whole. Without such confidence, nations might turn to destructive and self-defeating practices in an effort to preserve their own positions. Once started, such action could quickly spread -- with disastrous consequences for the world economy which the United States could not escape. I know from my discussions with other Finance Ministers that the prospect of the Support Fund -- and our own demonstration of willingness to cooperate through it -- have already strengthened nations' resolve to avoid restrictive and unfair practices. The agreement this spring to renew the OECD trade pledge, despite considerable concern and hesitation on the part of some, provides tangible evidence of the beneficial impact the Support Fund can have. a - 12 - J7^ If the need for Support Fund financing does arise, its provisions are expressly designed to assure widespread participation in financing by members, and to assure an equitable distribution of risk regardless of financing technique. The burdens of financing and risk will thus not fall to the one or two countries that may be in a relatively strong position at the time financing is needed. As you are well aware, the United States has found itself in this position in the past. I consider it far better to have an appropriately designed and equitable multilateral structure in place if the need arises, than to rely on ad hoc efforts to deal with a sudden crisis. The Support Fund spreads the risk, and its rules for decisions on loans -- requiring two-thirds majority vote at a minimum -afford the United States an appropriate degree of control over its operations. We hope the Support Fund will not have to be used. But if the occasion arises, we will be fortunate that it is available. I am not unaware that at a time of many pressing problems at home, questions are raised as to the direction in which we should be devoting our attention and our resources. I submit that the answer to these questions is that we must do what we believe is right both domestically and internationally. The danger in present circumstances is not that we will frivolously devote our attention to the international at the expense of the domestic; rather the greater risk is that we will turn inward. Ultimately, the U.S. interest in the Support Fund lies in its contribution to world economic stability, stemming as much from the confidence it will engender as from its potential for providing needed financing. Agreement on establishment of the Support Fund represents a fundamental commitment to cooperation across the broad scope of economic issues. It is a political act which signifies and strengthens the common purpose of participating nations and their resolve to pursue cooperative solutions to mutual problems. The participation of the United States in the Support Fund will convey unmistakably our commitment to cooperation in preservation of a liberal and open world economic system -and it will do much to ensure that result. I urge your strong support in this endeavor. 0O0 REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY 61ST ANNUAL MEETING OF THE ' ASSOCIATED INDUSTRIES OF NEW YORK STATE LAKE PLACID, N. Y., SEPTEMBER 18, 1975 MR, GEORGE, MR. KOESSLER, MR. SHAW, AND LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. I AM DEEPLY HONORED TO JOIN ALL OF YOU HERE TONIGHT AS YOU OPEN THE 61ST ANNUAL MEETING TO THIS DISTINGUISHED ASSOCIATION. LOOKING OVER THE FRIENDLY FACES IN THIS AUDIENCE AND THE ROSTER OF SPEAKERS WHO WILL BE TALKING WITH YOU FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, I ONLY WISH THAT I COULD HAVE THE TIONAL ADDI- PLEASURE OF REMAINING HERE FOR THE FULL CONFERENCE. WHEN CHARLIE GEORGE ASKED ME TO SPEAK TONIGHT, I WAS PARTICULARLY ATTRACTED BY THE IDEA THAT YOUR CENTRAL CONCERN HERE WOULD BE THE LONG-RANGE PROSPECTS FOR OUR SOCIETY. CERTAINLY, THERE IS NO SINGLE SIDERED ISSUE THAT NEEDS TO BE CON- MORE SERIOUSLY AND THOUGHTFULLY BY THE LEADERS OF OUR BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL COMMUNITIES, I SHOULD WARN YOU THAT IF YOU WERE HOLDING THIS CONFERENCE IN WASHINGTON, YOU WOULD BE COMMITTING ONE OF THE CARDINAL SINS IN THAT CITY: YOU WOULD BE ASKING PEOPLE TO LOOK BEYOND THE DATE OF THE NEXT ELECTION. IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE HOW MUCH ATTENTION AND ENERGY IS DEVOTED THERE TO PUTTING OUT SMALL BRUSH FIRES. CONTINUALLY, IT SEEMS, THE GOVERNMENT IS FORCED INTO ATTACKING THE EFFECTS RATHER THAN THE CAUSES OF OUR PROBLEMS. THAT TENDENCY IS PARTICULARLY DISTRESSING TODAY BECAUSE IT OFTEN MEANS THAT POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS ARE ALLOWED TO SHAPE POLICIES THAT SHOULD BE BASICALLY ECONOMIC IN CHARACTER, AND IN THE END WE WIND UP WITH BAD ECONOMICS AND BAD POLITICS. THIS PROCESS HAS CONTINUED FOR SO LONG, I BELIEVE, THAT WE HAVE DRIFTED FAR FROM OUR ECONOMIC MOORINGS — SO FAR, IN FACT, THAT WE ARE NOW IN SERIOUS NEED OF REVERSING DIRECTIONS IN THIS COUNTRY. I HAVE LEARNED FROM EXPERIENCE THAT YOU DON'T WIN ANY POPULARITY^CONTESTS BY ASKING PEOPLE WHERE WE'RE HEADED IN THIS COUNTRY AND WHAT CHOICES WE MUST MAKE FOR THE FUTURE. I AM SOMETIMES TOLD THAT'S BEEN ONE OF MY BIGGEST MISTAKES IN PUBLIC LIFE. BUT THE ISSUES MUST BE FACED, AND I AM DELIGHTED TO SEE YOU TACKLING THEM HERE. THERE ARE SOME WHO LOOK BACK UPON THE APPARENT PROSPERITY OF THE 1960S AND CONCLUDE THAT OUR- PRESENT ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES ARE SIMPLY AN ABERATION ~ AN IRRATIONAL NOSEDIVE IN OUR ECONOMIC FORTUNES THAT MUST SOMEHOW BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO ARAB SHEIKS AND RUSSIAN GRAIN PURCHASERS. NOTHING COULD BE MORE FATUOUS. THE PROBLEMS THAT WE HAVE IN OUR ECONOMY TODAY ARE THE NATURAL AND ALMOST PREDICTABLE OUTGROWTH OF MANY YEARS OF MISGUIDED POLICIES AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES. THESE PROBLEMS ARE NOW DEEP-SEATED IN OUR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LIFE, AND THEY WILL NOT DISAPPEAR WITHOUT THE APPLICATION OF CONSISTENT AND PATIENT POLICIES. THE SINS OF A DECADE WILL NOT BE FORGIVEN FOR BY A SINGLE YEAR OF PENANCE. 1& - L\ LET'S LOOK BACK FOR A FEW MOMENTS TO THE 1960S — THE "GO-GO" YEARS FOR OUR ECONOMY. THE PROSPERITY THAT WAS PROCLAIMED FROM WASHINGTON DURING THOSE YEARS WAS REALLY AN ILLUSION, FOR BENEATH THE SURFACE A DISEASE WAS BEGINNING TO GNAW AWAY AT THE FOUNDATIONS OF OUR ECONOMY — THE SICKNESS OF INFLATION. IN THE EARLY 60s, INFLATION WAS CREEPING UPWARDS AT JUST OVER ONE PERCENT A YEAR. IN THE MID-60S, AS WE ACCELERATED OUR EFFORTS IN VIETNAM, LAUNCHED THE GREAT SOCIETY AND TRIED TO BUY PERMANENT PROSPERITY, THE INFLATION RATE DOUBLED. THEN IN THE LATE 1960s IT DOUBLED AGAIN. WAGE AND PRICE CONTROLS SUPPRESSED INFLATION ARTIFICALLY AND ONLY TEMPORARILY BECAUSE AS HISTORY HAS SHOWN TIME AND AGAIN, CONTROLS NEVER END INFLATION — THEY ONLY POSTPONE IT. IN 1973, PRICES SHOT UP OVER 6 PERCENT AND LAST YEAR THEY CLIMBED OVER 12 PERCENT -- THE STEEPEST JUMP IN OUR PEACETIME HISTORY. THE RESULTS WERE FORESEEABLE: IRRESPONSIBLE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES — WHICH WERE THE BASIC SOURCE OF OUR RAMPANT INFLATION — TIPPED THE ECONOMY INTO RECESSION. AS RISING PRICES FORCED UP INTEREST RATES IN 1973 AND 1974, THE HOUSING MARKET FELL APART. CONSUMERS, THEIR REAL INCOME ERODED AND THEIR CONFIDENCE DESTROYED, BEGAN TO CUT DOWN ON THEIR PURCHASES AND WE EXPERIENCED THE BIGGEST DROP IN RETAIL SALES SINCE WORLD WAR II. WlTH TWO LEADING SECTORS DRAGGED DOWNWARD UNDER THE PRESSURE OF INFLATION, THE ECONOMY PLUNGED INTO THE MOST SEVERE RECESSION IN MORE THAN A GENERATION. THUS IT WAS INFLATION THAT WAS AT THE ROOT OF THE RECESSION, AND IF WE WANT TO AVOID ANOTHER RECESSION WITH MORE HUMAN MISERY, IT IS INFLATION THAT WE MUST CURE. AS ONE ECONOMIST HAS SAID, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT ARE LIKE OVEREATING AND INDIGESTION. "UNEMPLOYMENT IS THE INDIGESTION YOU GET AFTER YOU SWALLOW THE PILL OF INFLATION." BUT WHAT CAUSED THIS INFLATION? WHERE ARE THE REAL CULPRITS? CLEARLY, THE QUADRUPLING OF OIL PRICES AND SCARCITIES OF FOOD HAVE HAD A MAJOR IMPACT DURING THE 1970S. AS WE HAVE SEEN, HOWEVER, INFLATION REALLY BEGAN LEAPING UPWARDS DURING THE 1960S, SO THAT IF WE WANT TO KNOW THE UNDERLYING CAUSES OF INFLATION, THEN WE MUST LOOK BACK INTO THAT DECADE. IT WAS IN THAT DECADE THAT WE FIND THE ROOTS OF OUR TROUBLE. WHAT WE FIND SINCE THE MID-1960S ARE THREE RATHER REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENTS -- TRENDS THAT HAVE LITTLE PARALLEL IN OUR HISTORY AS A NATION. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN AN ENORMOUS GROWTH IN GOVERNMENT SPENDING. IT TOOK THIS REPUBLIC 186 YEARS BEFORE THE FEDERAL BUDGET REACHED $100 BILLION. THAT WAS IN 1962. YET ONLY NINE YEARS LATER THE BUDGET HAD DOUBLED TO $200 BILLION. THEN FOUR YEARS LATER — IN FISCAL YEAR 1975 — IT CROSSED THE $300 BILLION MARK, AND WE WILL CROSS $400 BILLION BY 1977. - 7- y AS RESIDENTS OF NEW YORK STATE, YOU WELL KNOW THAT THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTAL SPENDING, SO THAT LOOKED UPON AS A WHOLE, THE GOVERNMENT NOW OCCUPIES A VERY DOMINANT ROLE IN OUR ECONOMIC LIFE. JUST BEFORE THE GREAT DEPRESSION, GOVERNMENT SPENDING ACCOUNTED FOR .12 PERCENT OF OUR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; TODAY GOVERNMENT SPENDING AT ALL LEVELS ACCOUNTS FOR SOME 33 PERCENT OF OUR GNPJ AND IF RECENT GROWTH PATTERNS CONTINUE, IT WILL REACH 60% BEFORE THE END OF THIS CENTURY. ANY GOVERNMENT WHICH TAXES AWAY MORE THAN HALF OF WHAT PEOPLE EARN HAS ROBBED THEM OF A GREAT PART OF THEIR ECONOMIC FREEDOM. AND CAN THERE BE ANY DOUBT THAT WHEN OUR ECONOMIC FREEDOMS ARE DESTROYED, OUR PERSONAL AND POLITICAL FREEDOMS WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND? IT HAS NEVER BEEN POLITICALLY POPULAR, OF COURSE, TO INCREASE TAXES, SO THAT INCREASED FEDERAL SPENDING HAS MEANT A STRING OF FEDERAL DEFICITS — V\ IN THE LAST 15 YEARS. AS A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT'S REGULAR BUDGET AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE OFF-BUDGET AGENCIES ~ THE CREATURES SET UP A FEW YEARS AGO PARTLY TO AVOID THE DISCIPLINE OF THE BUDGET PROCESS —HAVE BEEN FORCED TO BORROW OVER A THIRD OF A TRILLION DOLLARS FROM OUR PRIVATE MONEY MARKETS OVER THE PAST DECADE — MONEY THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN USED TO BUILD NEW PLANTS AND CREATE NEW JOBS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, THIS EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENTAL BORROWING, I MIGHT ADD, HAS ALSO PREVENTED INTEREST RATES FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY SHOULD HAVE. PARTLY IN AN EFFORT TO ACCOMMODATE THESE DEFICITS, MONETARY POLICY HAS ALSO PUMPED TOO MUCH STIMULATION INTO THE ECONOMY OVER THE PAST DECADE. THE MONEY SUPPLY OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS HAS BEEN GROWING AT ALMOST THREE TIMES THE RATE OF THE PREVIOUS 10 YEARS, SIGNIFICANTLY ADDING TO INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. THE REASONS FOR THIS DRAMATIC GROWTH IN FEDERAL SPENDING ARE NOT HARD TO FIND. FOR YEARS, WE HAVE BEEN ELECTING - 9POLITICIANS WHO PROMISE US THAT WE CAN CLEAN'UP OUR ENVIRONMENT, REBUILD OUR HOUSING STOCK, OVERHAUL OUR TRANSPORTATION, PUT EVERYONE THROUGH COLLEGE, FEED THE WORLD, EXPLORE THE UNIVERSE, AND SUPPORT EVERYONE ON A HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING — ALL AT THE SAME TIME. IT JUST CAN'T BE DONE, EVEN BY THE MOST POWERFUL NATION ON EARTH. WE CANNOT AFFORD GUNS AND BUTTER AT THE SAME TIME, JUST AS WE CANNOT BUY A GREAT SOCIETY ON THE LAYAWAY PLAN, OR ABOLISH THE BUSINESS CYCLE, NEITHER MAN NOR GOVERNMENT CAN CONTINUE LIVING BEYOND THEIR MEANS INDEFINITELY. EVENTUALLY THE PRICE MUST BE PAID — EITHER THROUGH HIGHER TAXES OR THROUGH THE CRUELEST AND MOST REGRESSIVE TAX OF ALL, INFLATION. THAT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSONS WE SHOULD HAVE LEARNED FROM THE PAST DECADE. LET US LOOK NOW AT A SECOND AND RELATED TREND WHICH HAS HAD A DESTRUCTIVE IMPACT UPON THE ECONOMY IN RECENT YEARS: - 10 THE ENORMOUS PROLIFERATION OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS AND LAWS i WHICH RESTRICT THE OPERATION OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE. MANY OF YOU ARE PROBABLY FAMILIAR WITH THE MOST EGREGIOUS REGULATORY PRACTICES — THOSE REQUIRING TRUCKS TO RETURN WITH EMPTY VANS, FOR INSTANCE, OR FORCING UP THE PRICES FOR INTERSTATE AIR TRAVEL. WHILE THESE ABUSES ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGULATORY LANDSCAPE AND COST CONSUMERS UNTOLD BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, IT IS PERHAPS IN THE ENERGY FIELD THAT GOVERNMENTAL REGULATION IS NOW CAUSING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. IT HAS BEEN APPARENT FOR MORE THAN 20 YEARS THAT THIS NATION WAS ON A COLLISION COURSE WITH ITS ENERGY POLICY. EXPERTS HAVE BEEN WARNING US AGAIN AND AGAIN THAT OUR DEMANDS WERE GROWING FASTER THAN OUR SUPPLIES. BUT INSTEAD OF ALLOWING THE PRIVATE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM TO RISE TO THIS CHALLENGE, AS IT CAN, WE HAVE ALLOWED THE GOVERNMENT TO ERECT ONE IMPEDIMENT AFTER ANOTHER TO DISCOURAGE GREATER PRODUCTION. IT CAN FAIRLY BE SAID THAT OUR ENERGY CRISIS, LIKE OUR INFLATION AND OUR RECESSION, SHOULD CARRY A LABEL: MADE IN WASHINGTON, D. C, CONSIDER SOME OF THE WAYS THAT ENERGY PRODUCERS ARE BEING BOUND HAND AND FOOT BY THE GOVERNMENT. — DESPITE CONTINUAL WARNINGS FROM EXPERTS, THE FEDERAL POWER COMMISSION HAS BEEN REQUIRED FOR MORE THAN TWO DECADES TO KEEP THE WELLHEAD PRICE OF NATURAL GAS AT AN ABNORMALLY LOW LEVEL IN ORDER TO HOLD DOWN PRICES FOR CONSUMERS. BUT THESE CONTROLS HAVE REDUCED THE INCENTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW DOMESTIC SUPPLIES, SO THAT PREDICTABLY THERE IS MUCH LESS NATURAL GAS THAN WE NEED TODAY. NEW YORK IS ONE OF A DOZEN STATES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WHICH COULD BE SEVERLY HIT BY A NATURAL GAS SHORTAGE THIS WINTER. WE ARE PUSHING EMERGENCY LEGISLATION WHICH WOULD HELP TO AMELIORATE THE EFFECTS OF THE SHORTAGE, BUT THE ONLY REALISTIC SOLUTION TO THIS PROBLEM ON A LONG-TERM BASIS IS TO END THE if - 12 DISINCENTIVES FORCED UPON PRODUCERS BY GOVERNMENTAL REGULATION. — INSTEAD OF LEARNING FROM THE NATURAL GAS EXPERIENCE, WE ARE NOW REPEATING OUR MISTAKES IN THE OIL INDUSTRY WHERE WE HAVE AGAIN IMPOSED PRICE CONTROLS. AND AGAIN THE RESULT IS PREDICTABLE: BY CONTROLLING THE PRICE OF DOMESTIC OIL AND THUS REDUCING THE INCENTIVE FOR NEW PRODUCTION, WE ARE FORCING CONSUMERS TO BUY MORE EXPENSIVE PRODUCTS FROM FOREIGN OIL SOURCES AND ARE WILLINGLY SUBJECTING OURSELVES TO THEIR BLACKMAIL. ONCE AGAIN THE ANSWER IS DECONTROL, -- IN THE FIELD OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, THE STORY IS AGAIN A SAD ONE. THIS COUNTRY WAS A PIONEER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER. YET TODAY IT CAN TAKE UP TO 11 YEARS TO BUILD A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN THE UNITED STATES AND ONLY 4 TO *& YEARS IN EUROPE AND JAPAN. NUCLEAR ENERGY PROVIDES LESS THAN 11 OF OUR CURRENT ENERGY CONSUMPTION — FAR BELOW ITS POTENTIAL. WHY? BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENTAL REGULATION WHICH IMPEDES THE CONSTRUCTION OF,MORE NUCLEAR PLANTS. — OR CONSIDER THE CASE OF COAL. THIS NATION HAS ABOUT A THIRD OF ALL THE RECOVERABLE COAL RESERVES IN THE WORLD. WE ARE THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD, AND AT 1973 LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION WE HAVE ENOUGH COAL TO BURN FOR 800 YEARS. YET, BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENTAL INTERVENTION, COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES TODAY IS LOWER THAN IT WAS THIRTY YEARS AGO. I RECOGNIZE THAT SOME OF THESE IMPEDIMENTS TO ENERGY PRODUCTION REFLECT PUBLIC CONCERN ABOUT PUBLIC HEALTH AND PROTECTION OF OUR ENVIRONMENT. BUT THROUGH BALANCED POLICIES WE CAN MEET THOSE CONCERNS AND EXPAND OUR ENERGY SUPPLIES AT THE SAME TIME. I DEEPLY BELIEVE THAT IT IS TIME FOR THE CONGRESS TO STOP ITS ENDLESS DEBATES ON ENERGY AND START WORKING WITH THE PRESIDENT ON A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY THAT ENCOURAGES BOTH CONSERVATION AND GREATER PRODUCTION. EITHER 9° - MWE WAKE UP TO THIS CHALLENGE SOON, OR WE ARE GOING TO FIND THAT, LIKE SAMSON, WE HAVE GIVEN IT ALL AWAY TO THESE MODERNDAY DELIALAHS OF THE MIDDLE EAST. LET ME TURN NOW TO A THIRD TREND OF RECENT YEARS: IT IS A TRAGIC FACT THAT OVER THE LAST DECADE, AS THE FORCES OF BIG GOVERNMENT HAVE BEEN OVERFED AND OVERNOURISHED, THE PRIVATE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENED. AS WE HAVE STRENGTHENED THE PUBLIC SECTOR, WE HAVE DIRECTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AWAY FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND WE HAVE DISCOURAGED VITALLY NEEDED SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT IN THE FUTURE. - _ THE RECORD OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN IN THE LOWEST OF ANY MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED NATION IN THE FREE WORLD. NOT SURPRISINGLY, OUR RECORD OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DURING THIS SAME PERIOD WAS ALSO AMONG THE LOWEST OF THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS. WHY HAVE WE FAILED TO BUILD AND EXPAND OUR INDUSTRIAL BASE? A FUNDAMENTAL REASON, I WOULD ARGUE, IS THAT WE HAVE HAD POLICIES WHICH PROMOTE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND FEDERAL SPENDING AT THE EXPENSE OF PERSONAL SAVINGS, INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL FORMATION. TOO MANY OF OUR FINANCIAL RESOURCES HAVE BEEN DIVERTED FROM THEIR MOST PRODUCTIVE USE, THE PRIVATE SECTOR, TO THEIR LEAST PRODUCTIVE USE, THE GOVERNMENT. A RELATED PART OF THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN THE SERIOUS DETERIORATION IN CORPORATE PROFITS SINCE THE MID-1960S. CONTRARY TO POPULAR OPINION, AFTER-TAX PROFITS MEASURED IN REAL TERMS HAVE DROPPED BY 50 PERCENT SINCE 1965. IT IS NOT UNFAIR TO SAY THAT WE HAVE BEEN AND REMAIN TODAY IN A PROFITS DEPRESSION IN THE UNITED STATES, THE INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS LONG-RANGE TRENDS THAT I HAVE MENTIONED HERE TONIGHT — EXCESSIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES, OVERZEALOUS REGULATION BY THE GOVERNMENT, AND INADEQUATE CAPITAL FORMATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH — HAS HAD #1 - 16 A NUMBER OF EFFECTS WITHIN THE ECONOMY, BUT NONE HAS BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT THATN THE GENERAL INFLATION THAT HAS RESULTED. THESE ARE THE ROOT CAUSES OF THE INFLATION THAT BEGAN HEATING UP IN THE 1960S. THESE ARE AT THE CORE OF THE INFLATIONARY PSYCHOLOGY WHICH STILL GRIPS OUR NATION. AND AS WE WORK OUR WAY OUT OF THIS RECESSION — AS WE ARE TODAY — THESE MUST CONTINUE TO BE AT THE CENTER OF OUR ATTENTION. WHEN YOU SEE THINGS IN THIS LIGHT — WHEN YOU RECOGNIZE THAT INFLATION HAS BEEN THE MAJOR CAUSE OF RECESSION AND THAT OUR INFLATION IS ROOTED IN MISGUIDED POLICIES OF THE PAST — THEN YOU CAN ALSO UNDERSTAND THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S ECONOMIC POLICIES. LET ME SUMMARIZE OUR ESSENTIAL GOALS FOR YOU. CLEARLY OUR FIRST AND PRIMARY OBJECTIVE MUST BE TO ACHIEVE A SOLID ECONOMIC RECOVERY. THE PROCESS OF RECOVERY HAS OBVIOUSLY BEGUN AND ON THE BASIS OF A WIDE RANGE OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS, WE THINK THAT IN COMING MONTHS IT WILL -17BE VIGOROUS AND HEALTHY. y]3 NOW OUR TASK IS TO MANAGE THE RECOVERY SO THAT IT WILL ALSO BE DURABLE AND LASTING. TO ACHIEVE THAT GOAL, WE BELIEVE IT IS ESSENTIAL TO STRIKE A SOUND BALANCE IN OUR POLICIES ~ PROVIDING ENOUGH FUEL TO THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE OUR FORWARD MOMENTUM BUT CAREFULLY AVOIDING MEASURES WHICH WOULD PROPEL US BACK TO PROSPERITY AT BREAKNECK SPEED AND SURELY BRING ANOTHER SPURT OF INFLATION. TWICE IN THE LAST DECADE WE AVE ENGAGED IN STOP-AND-START POLICIES, AND EACH TIME WE HAVE TAKEN A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE THAT LEFT US WORSE OFF THAN BEFORE. LET US HAVE PROGRESS BUT, FOR A CHANGE, LET'S MAKE IT FIRM AND DURABLE; LET'S WARM UP THE ECONOMY BUT, FOR A CHANGE, LET'S NOT OVERHEAT IT. AS WE GO ABOUT THAT TASK, I BELIEVE IT IS CRUCIAL THAT THE NATION ALSO MAKE A FIRM, DEDICATED EFFORT TO REVERSE THE THREE LONG-RANGE TRENDS THAT I MENTIONED EARLIER. WE MUST BRING A HALT TO RUNAWAY FEDERAL SPENDING AND INTRODUCE GREATER BALANCE TO OUR FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. WE MUST LIFT THE DEAD HAND OF GOVERNMENTAL REGULATION THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRANGLING OUR PRIVATE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM. AND WE MUST CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE GROWTH OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT SO THAT WE CAN CREATE MORE JOBS FOR A GROWING LABOR FORCE AND CONTINUE TO RAISE THE STANDARD OF LIVING FOR ALL AMERICANS. LET US RECOGNIZE THAT CAPITAL CREATION IS REALLY JOB CREATION, AND THAT JOB CREATION MEANS AN EXPANDED WORK FORCE, HIGHER REAL EARNINGS AND LOWER PRICES FOR CONSUMERS. OVER THE NEXT DECADE, OUR TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT NEEDS WILL BE TRIPLE THOSE OF RECENT YEARS. LET THERE BE NO DOUBT HERE TONIGHT THAT MEETING THIS CAPITAL INVESTMENT GOAL IS ONE OF THE BEST MEANS WE HAVE OF OVERCOMING THE INDUSTRIAL PROBLEMS OF CITIES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST. TWO MONTHS AGO THIS ADMINISTRATION INTRODUCED FAR-REACHING TAX PROPOSALS SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO PROMOTE - 19 GREATER CAPITAL AND JOB FORMATION. WITHOUT DISCUSSING THE SPECIFICS HERE, I URGE YOU TO EXAMINE THOSE PROPOSALS AND TO LEND US YOUR STRONG SUPPORT. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: WHAT ALL THIS BOILS DOWN TO IS A FUNDAMENTAL CHOICE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF OUR GREAT REPUBLIC. I SINCERELY BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE REACHED A CROSSROADS IN OUR NATION'S HISTORY, FOR MORE THAN 10 YEARS WE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THE POWER OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IN OUR DAILY LIVES. As OUR FREEDOMS HAVE BEEN CHIPPED AWAY, YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT, WE HAVE ALSO LOST SOME OF THAT GLOW THAT WAS PARTICULARLY DISTINCTIVE ABOUT THE AMERICAN EXPERIENCE ~ OUR BOLDNESS AND VITALITY HAVE BEEN DRAINED A BIT; OUR INGENUITY HAS BEEN CHALLENGED BY NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD; WHY, SOME NATIONS HAVE EVEN COME TO BELIEVE THEY CAN PLAY US FOR PATSIES, AND ALAS, OUR FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM — THE GREATEST ENGINE FOR SOCIAL PROGRESS THAT THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN — HAS SLOWED DOWN PERCEPTIBLY SO THAT NOW IT IS CHUGGING ALONG IN SECOND GEAR, FAR BELOW ITS POTENTIAL. I BELIEVE THAT THE TIME HAS NOW COME TO CHOOSE — TO CHOOSE BETWEEN A CONTINUATION OF THE LAST 40 YEARS, A TREND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MEAN THAT OUR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FREEDOMS WILL BE SACRIFICED AND THAT OUR SOCIETY WILL BE RUN BY THE SAME FREE SPENDERS WHO HAVE GIVEN US THE WORST INFLATION IN OUR PEACETIME HISTORY AND THE WORST RECESSION IN MORE THAN A GENERATION, OR AS AN ALTERNATIVE, THAT WE RESTORE OUR BASIC FREEDOMS AS AMERICANS, REVIVE OUR PRIVATE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM, AND REASSERT AMERICA'S SENSE OF DESTINY IN THE WORLD. THIS IS THE CHOICE THAT WE MUST MAKE AS A NATION IN COMING YEARS. THIS IS THE CLASSIC CHOICE BETWEEN FREEDOM AND SOCIALISM. THIS IS THE CHOICE THAT WILL SHAPE THE LIVES OF OUR CHILDREN AND OUR CHILDREN'S CHILDREN. I HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED THAT EVERY PUBLIC OFFICIAL MUST TAKE THIS AS HIS HIGHEST GOAL: TO TURN OVER TO OUR CHILDREN A NATION THAT IS STRONGER AND BETTER — THAT.OFFERS GREATER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PERSONAL AND SPIRITUAL FULFILLMENT — THAN THE NATION WE HAVE INHERITED. I FIRST CAME TO WASHINGTON BECAUSE — AS CORNY AS IT MAY SEEM — I WANTED TO REPAY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WHAT THIS COUNTRY HAS GIVEN ME. AND I AM PROUD TO BE THERE. BUT WHEN I SEE THE ABUSES THAT WASHINGTON HAS INFLICTED AND IS CONTINUING TO INFLICT UPON PRIVATE ENTERPRISE AND UPON OUR FREEDOMS, I CAN ONLY SHUDDER ABOUT THE WORLD THAT WE ARE BUILDING FOR OUR CHILDREN. I BELIEVE THAT THE TIME HAS COME FOR NEW DIRECTIONS IN THIS COUNTRY — TO SET THE SHIP OF STATE ON A NEW COURSE. AND I BELIEVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE KNOW THIS. THERE IS NO QUESTION IN MY MIND THAT THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY WANT A FRESH START, AS THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID. BUT I ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES ABOUT THE FUTURE ONLY IF MORE OF OUR CITIZENS — AMERICANS OF STRENGTH AND CHARACTER LIKE THOSE - 22 OF YOU HERE TONIGHT ~ ARE WILLING TO FIGHT FOR THEIR CONVICTIONS. I UGE YOU TO STAND UP AND BE COUNTED. THANK YOU. ###### - 2- 996 political ones, we have succumbed to the wrong instincts. Both Democrats and Republicans have made the same mistakes. And the result has been a sad record of stop-and-go policies that have only accentuated the forces of expansion and contraction and, in fact, must be held accountable for a significant amount of our current economic troubles. In view of that record and considering the vigor of the recovery that is now underway, I would suggest that this is not a time for "politics as usual" -- not for fancy, headline-catching action in Washington -- but for a calm, steady hand on the tiller. We must not be rigid in our approach.Very shortly, for instance, we must decide whether to extend the recent tax cut and it is important that we maintain an open mind on that issue. But contrary to past practice, I would hope that our answer would be dictated more by economic than by political considerations. A few days ago, I asked one of the top economists in the government about his views on the tax questions, and he said, "I've been in the government so long that I'm not sure whether my opinions are based on economics or politics." While that surely happens to the best, it is a tendency we must learn to resist. The recovery that we've experienced in the last several months does, I believe, provide solid grounds for encouragement. It came earlier and it has been stronger than most forecasters predicted, and I think that it will continue to be stronger and that the unemployment rate will come down more rapidly than many now think. Let's look for a moment at the dimensions of the recovery: 1.5 million jobs have been added to the work force since March. The unemployemnt rate has held steady at 8.41 for two months in a row, significantly below the 9.21 peak reached in May. After sliding downwards for five consecutive quarters, including a decline of 11.41 on a annualized basis during the first quarter of this year, the Gross National Product has reversed course, rising at a 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter. Industrial production has now risen four months in a row, and the August increase of 1.3% was the biggest single increase in three years. - 3- iU/ The composite of 12 leading economic indicators has now moved up strongly for five months in a row. Inventories have been sharply reduced, opening the way to rising production levels. And exports are up considerably. Moreover, the Government is supplying a great deal more stimulus to the economy than most people realize. You will often read that the $44 billion deficit incurred by the Federal Government in fiscal year 1975 resulted from a loss of revenue caused by the recession. That is partiallytrue. But it is also true that Federal outlays during that year were $56 billion higher than the year before -- a 21 percent increase and the biggest single percentage increase in more than two decades. Monetary policy has also been stimulative as the total of currency and bank demand deposits -- the M money supply, as it is called by economists -- has Ls.zst 1increased at an annualized rate of over 8-1/2% the first half of this year. A compilation of 21 well-known, private economic models show that 10 of them now predict that real growth in the third quarter will be over 5 percent, and 10 of them show it will be in excess of 6 percent. Similar growth patterns are foreseen for the fourth quarter and into 1976. Within the government itself, we now anticipate a moderate to strong - 4- ^9 expansion of real output extending through the second half of the year into 1976. And if we manage .the recovery properly -- if we exercise a high degree of prudence -- then we believe that the recovery will be both sustained and vigorous beyond that time. I hasten to re-emphasize the need for prudence because there are certainly a number of shoals ahead and we must be careful to avoid them. The most obvious is the renewed threat of inflation. The inflationary surge that we've experienced in the last few weeks is directly related to increases in energy and food costs and we are hopeful that it will be only a bubble, soon passing out of the system. But it is also a grim reminder that even the most severe recession in more than a generation has not fully defeated the forces of inflation. Indeed, the rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index so far this year has averaged over 7%, more than triple the rate that I would consider acceptable over the long-run. And the last WPI figures also brought a significant increase in industrial prices. A prolonged siege of new, double digit inflation would almost certainly wreck our hopes for a durable economic recovery. We must never forget that excessive inflation was the basic cause of the recession and that it remains our most fundamental economic problem. Administration critics argue that our concern with inflation reflects an insensitivity toward jobs and the poor: to the contrary, it is only by conquering inflation that we are going to achieve the long-range growth that is essential for the creation of new jobs. We do not have the luxury of choosing between jobs and inflation: experience teaches us that we must pursue both of these goals simultaneously. As we continue to stimulate the economy, then, it is essential that we also take extreme care in avoiding policy excesses which would whip up the inflationary forces that still plague our economy. For policy purposes, this means three things: (1) We must maintain a stout defense against continuing efforts to bust the Federal budget. Earlier this year the country applauded as the President succeeded in vetoing several bills that would have cost the taxpayers an additional $6 billion before 1977. It has not been widely noticed, however, that since that time the Congress has begun to make serious inroads on the President's deficit ceiling of $60 billion. In fact, there is now a considerable question of whether the congress can contain itself within its own target of $68.8 billion deficit. The senate keeps a - 5- scorecard on Congressional budget activities of the Congress, and in their most recent report they conceded that the Congress could overshoot its own target by over $5 billion. There can be no question that the most effective discipline that can be imposed upon the Congress is the voice of the people: if people back home fully support the effort to hold down spending, it will be done. Without that support, we have no reason to be as optimistic, especially as elections approach. (2) Turning now to a second vital point, it is imperative that we settle upon a national energy policy. In the short run, it is especially critical that we reach agreement upon policies concerning oil and natural gas. In the long run -- and in this case, the long run means sooner rather than later -- we must also adopt more effective policies to encourage much greater development and use of our coal resources and of non-fossil fuels, as well as policies that will ensure significantly greater energy conservation. Let me talk briefly about our views on the immediate questions of oil and natural gas. With regard to domestic oil prices, you will recall that the President early this year proposed a decontrol plan coupled with plans for tax rebates and a windfall profits tax. Together, these measures would have reduced consumption of oil, promoted greater domestic development, and would have also had only a minimal impact upon consumers and our chances of recovery. Then for months the Congress didled and dawdled. The President began seeking a compromise, meeting again and again with Congressional leaders, but still the Congress talked and talked but refused to act. Now we are in a situation in which decontrols have expired, the President has offered again to compromise, and the Congress still can't make up its collective mind what to do. Our position in the Administration is clear: the President is willing to accept the gradual decontrol of oil prices. We are also willing to go forward with a plan for more immediate decontrol and we believe this can be carried out without imposing a heavy burden upon the economic recovery - o- /&¥ that is underway. What we are not willing to do -- and I believe the American people feel the same way --is to accept endless delays and debates. The time has long since come for concrete action. Now with regard to natural gas, we face the possibility that if the winter is severe, a dozen or so of our Eastern states could suffer serious shortages, several other states -- including some represented here -- could also feel a pinch, and there might be layoffs in a number of industries that are heavily dependent on natural gas supplies. Unfortunately, this country has allowed the natural gas issue to drift so long that it will not be possible to eliminate all of the shortages this winter. But we can help to alleviate them, and toward that end the President last week sent to the Congress and emergency, four-part bill that would accomplish that purpose. One part of this bill would allow qualified interstate pipelines to purchase natural gas from intrastate sources at uncontrolled prices for a period of 180 days; another part of the bill would permit high-priority users to purchase their natural gas directly from intrastate sources at uncontrolled prices and then arrange for transportation through interstate pipelines. Both parts of the bill thus point up a conclusion that I have been advocating for as long as I have been in Washington: that the ultimate answer to the issue of natural gas lies in deregulation. As we proceed to consider the emergency natural gas legislation, I hope that no one will ignore the fact that we must also move toward permanent deregulation because that is the only ultimate solution. (3) A third objective in the struggle to hold down inflationary pressures is to do all that we can to limit further price increases by the OPEC oil bloc. The prices they are charging now cannot be justified on either economic or financial grounds; they are politically determined and, truth to tell, they amount to political blackmail. As I have stressed on other occasions, I believe that another major increase in their prices this fall would seriously jeopardize the balance upon which worldwide recovery now depends. Three weeks ago, I had a chance to talk with the OPEC finance ministers, and I was encouraged by a sense of moderation and realism that most of them displayed. But the question of another increase is not yet resolved; until it is, the United States must leave no doubt about its views. And I can assure you that we aren't. The problems of inflation, then, arise in many different wavs -- in irresponsible government fiscal and monetary policies, in questions of domestic energy policy, and in international oil prices -- and we must work on all of these fronts at the same time. None of them can be ignored. J/6? - 7- Still another immediate concern with regard to the prospects for recovery, and one that is related to inflation, has been the pattern of rising interest rates. More than six months ago, when we began warning that private borrowers might be crowded out of the capital market by the government devouringso much of the available funds, we were hotly roasted by many of the apologists for big government spending. Their models, they said, showed that interest rates would decline and private borrowers would be able to obtain ample funds. But the fact is that the "crowding out" that concerned us has already started. Furthermore, there has been an accentuation of the "flight to quality" that we have seen in the financial markets in the recent past. Funds are still available to high quality borrowers, but many lower quality borrowers are finding that they no longer have access to the market at prices they can afford. Looking down the road, a continuation of this trend would spell very serious trouble for the future growth of the economy. So it is imperative that the Federal Government exercise greater fiscal discipline, bringing inflation under control and wringing out the inflationary expectations that are so deeply ingrained in the American people. A third area of immediate concern for all of us must be consumer confidence. While I do not place full faith and credit in the results of public polls, they do bear watching and recently they have shown a sag in public expectations. And it is clear that the recent decline has been directly related to the reappearance of inflation. I need not remind you that a precipitous drop in consumer confidence touched off by the wave of doubledigit inflation, was a major element in bringing the last recession. It would be tragic to let that happen again. Instead, it is clear to me that we must follow the same policy prescriptions that I have suggested earlier: strong, steady policies that support the forces of recovery but carefully avoid the excesses that would rekindle inflation. I could continue at some length on current problems and prospects, but let me turn for a moment to longer-range and even more fundamental concerns. As you can see, I have a high degree of confidence in the immediate future. The recovery is off to a solid start and, as I have said, it can be durable and lasting if we act prudently. I am, however, increasingly concerned by what mav lie a few years beyond the horizon. Our economy cannot with stand a continual battering for the next five or ten years without suffering rather severe co-nsequences; and let there be no doubt: serious damage to our economic system would most assuredly be a body blow to our political system as well. - 5 - /J9 f -- Our corporations, both financial and non-financial, cannot tolerate a prolonged period of inflation in the doubledigit or high single-digit range; -- They cannot create the 11 million new jobs we need before 1980 unless far more of our resources are pumped into new capital investments. — They cannot survive higher and higher degrees of illiquidity. -- They cannot grow and prosper if there is a continual depression in profits. — They cannot operate efficiently and imaginatively if they are strangled by a growing web of government regulations — regulations are especially vexing in the field of energy. -- And they cannot survive the political pressures of a restive society unless they regain public esteem and attract many of the brightest and most able of our young people. None of these trends will be easy to reverse. Their causes are deep-seated and have built up over a long period. The habit of excessive governmental spending, which lies at the root of so many of our difficulties, extends back for years: We have had 14 Federal deficits in the last 15 years, and 40 in the last 48 years. The sins of a decade or more will not be forgiven by a single day or even by a single year of penance. The critical point is that we get started — that we begin working to slow and then reverse the patterns. And we should be acting now, not two or three years hence when the problems could be significantly bigger and more difficult to master. If we wait too long, the solutions that will be forced upon us will make a mockery of the traditions that we hold dear in this country. The first rumblings for new wage and price controls can already be heard in Washington. Indeed, the wolf of Big Government is nearing our door, and it will not be driven off unless we act soon. Late in July, I went before the House Ways and Means Committee to propose some rather fundamental changes in our tax code that would encourage a higher rate of capital formation — or as the President aptly calls it, a new program of job formation. It was obvious that we would meet with stiff opposition both in the Congress and in*the Press, and we knew the chances were slim that Chairman Ullman and his Committee would act on our proposal before the end of the year. But it was important, we thought, to generate a more serious public work debatefor about the changes capital formation that are so and clearly to begin needed laying in the future. ground- - 9- 4t7 This is the posture that I believe must be taken by all of us here} To be forthright about the crucial choices that our nation must make and to be aggressive in pursuing our desired ends. There can be no question about how far this country has wandered from its moorings. Economic freedom is now on the line; political freedom is on the line; and personal freedom is on the line. And if people who believe in those freedoms aren't willing to stand up and fight for them, who will? - * Ladies and gentlemen: I sincerely believe that we have reached a crossroads in our nation's history. For more than 40 years we have been gradually increasing the power of the central government in our daily lives. We have permitted the country to drift away from economic ibeliefs that were once considered fundamental in the United States: Notions that you must live within your means and that individual Americans acting within a free marketplace will in the end make better decisions and enjoy more satisfying'lives than if those decisions are forfeited to the government. To me, it is clear that this drift is responsible for much of the inflation that we have suffered in recent years. It lies at the foundations of our recession. And it has helped to generate a crisis in energy; Today our free enterprise system -- the greatest engine for social progress that the world has ever known -- has slowed down perceptibly so that it is chugging along in second gear, far below its potential. I believe that the time has now come to choose -- to choose between a continuation of the past decade, a trend that will eventually mean that our economic and political freedoms will be wrapped in a straitjacket and our economy will be run and managed out of Washington, or as an alternative, that we restore our basic freedoms as Americans, revitalize our private enterprise system, and reassert America's sense of destiny in the world. This is the choice that we must make as a Nation in the coming year. This is the choice that will preserve or cripple our freedoms. This is the choice that will shape the lives of our children and our children's children. I have always believed that every public official must take this as his highest goal: To turn over to our children a nation that is stronger and better — that offers greater opportunities for personal and spiritual fulfillment -- than the nation we have inherited. I first came to Washington because -- as corny as it may seem -- I wanted to repay a small amount of what this country has given me. And I am proud to be there. But when I see the abuses that Washington has inflicted and is continuing to inflict upon private enterDrise and upon our freedoms, I can only shudder about the world we are building for our children. I believe that the time has come for new directions-to set the ship of state on a new course. And I believe the American people know this. There is no question in my mind that the people of this country want a fresh start, as the President has said. But I also believe that we will make the right choices about the future only if more of our citizens — Americans of strength and character like those of you here tonight — are willing to fight for their convictions. I urge you to stand up and be counted. Thank you. # # # # # FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE REMARKS BY JAMES N. SITES SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE MARYLAND-DELAWARE-D.C. PRESS ASSOCIATION SHERATON-FONTAINEBLEAU HOTEL 6:00 P.M., EDT, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 1975 Nearly a year ago, I packed my papers and moved one block from the National Press Building to Main Treasury to work with William E. Simon on communicating to the nation the basic facts on how America got into its awesome economic troubles, and what it would take to get out. I soon began to wonder how 1^ got into such a jam! After 24 years in Washington reporting and communications counseling, I thought I had a fair grasp of government processes. As someone said, I would be playing the same game in a different ballpark: But, no, I found that people kept throwing bottles from the bleachers! Including the press.... Even so, I have finally concluded that if people knew more, they would throw more. The fact is that government is rapidly becoming the foremost factor in our lives. And if it does not function well, little else will. So, tonight, I would like to talk about what I see as the nation's greatest challenge of the next decade — and, for that matter, for the rest of our lives: This is bringing government's enormous expansion under control and making government work in the best interests of the nation. And because we at Treasury and the Economic Policy Board work daily with the economic problems that so intimately affect the state of the nation, I will concentrate on this area. (more) Hf6 Economics, as you know, has been called the dismal science. And looking at those Four Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse — inflation, unemployment, high interest rates and business turmoil — you can understand why. Reporting in this crucial area has also been called dismal. Yet, as economic issues have moved into Page One, I myself have observed an enormous improvement in this regard recently. There should be. For press coverage of economic developments directly affects policy debates in Washington and elsewhere — and can lead, as well, to sensible resolution of that larger issue I mentioned of controlling Big Government. This is the particular challenge before you who represent the nation's press, for it's your government no less than mine. I am reminded in this connection of the first use of that telling phrase, the Fourth Estate, as attributed to a speech in Commons by Edmund Burke, who said: "There are three estates in Parliament, but in the reporter's gallery yonder, there sits a Fourth Estate more important far than...all. It is not a figure of speech or witty saying; it is a literal fact, very momentous to us in these times." On the economic-political front, America may well be in a race between knowledge and crisis, and the press will play a decisive role in determining the outcome. I know I don't have to tell you that the nation has worked itself into a difficult economic situation today — even though/ fortunately, we have turned the corner and are seeing an encouraging improvement in production, sales and employment. The big problem is inflationary pressures. And if Washington fails to follow sensible fiscal and monetary policies now, it could readily aggravate these pressures and plunge the nation again into the same kind of boom-and-bust cycle we have just gone through. I won't belabor the causes of double-digit inflation. Economists are generally in fair agreement on this point — even though, as one wag put it, if you took all the economists in the world and laid them end-to-end, they wouldn't reach a conclusion! People have been rocked in recent years by a quadrupling of prices by the oil-producing nations, by crop setbacks that triggered higher prices for farm products, by serious supply shortages in key industries which resulted from our recent (more) -3- -#// bout with wage-price controls, by a simultaneous boom among industrialized countries that boosted world commodity prices and by two devaluations of the dollar that spurred increased foreign demand for U.S. goods. Then, on top of all these economic factors have come subtle political pressures in the form of rising expectations of the world's peoples for a better life — leading to almost unlimited demands being placed on limited resources. Now, look at the role federal policies have played in this situation. To cite a few facts for background: * Before the 1930s, government accounted for about 12 percent of our gross national output. Today, government at all levels accounts for a full third of output. And if present growth trends continue, this could top 50 percent by the year 2000. * Nearly one out of every five members of the work force now works for government — federal, state and local. In fact, the 15 million people on public payrolls make government the largest single employer in the United States. * Only 14 years ago the federal budget first reached the $100-billion figure. Just four years ago, it topped the $200-billion mark. Then, last year it passed $300-billion. And this current year government is spending close to one billion dollars each day. While the vast expansion of government functions represented by these spending totals is a problem in itself, even more serious is the chronic failure of government to make ends meet. In the past 15 years, the federal bureauracy has run up deficits in 14 years — a miserable record of profligacy. These huge deficits, combined with expansive monetary policies, have added enormously to aggregate demand for goods and services and have thus generated heavy upward price pressures. Moreover, as government moved into capital markets and preempted vast sums to cover its deficits, interest rates have climbed. This, in turn, has badly hurt home building, which depends on low-cost mortgage money, as well as business borrowing for expansion of plant and jobs and consumer credit for purchases of autos and other major appliances. We've thus seen posed for Washington policy-makers the ultimate dilemma: You can no longer solve problems simply by throwing a lot of money at them. Now dawns the hard realization that the more money government spends, the more severe our economic troubles become. It's like trying to cure an alcoholic by plying (more) him with manhattans. -4And speaking of manhattans, what clearer example could you find of the sad results of irresponsible spending policies than in New York City? Those who would cast stones at that city's misfortunes, however, should recognize that the Federal Government is making the same mistakes that brought on New York's crisis. The big difference is that Washington, unlike New York, controls the printing presses and can create new reams of inflated money to cover its deficits. Is anyone any longer deceived by this kind of fiscal sleight of hand? I doubt it. People know full well that there's no such thing as free government programs, any more than there's such a thing as a free lunch. If we don't have the courage and will to pay for government programs in taxes, then we wind up paying in the cruelest and most regressive tax of all — inflation. As indicated earlier, politicians can hardly be held solely responsible for inflation. Business, labor, education, the professions all contribute their bit to the process. And everyone would have to contribute his bit to the solution. Few objectives are more urgent. It's been said that inflation is like a country where no one speaks the truth. The least able pay the bill for inflation, whether they're out of work, retired, disabled or dependent. For instance, at the 12 percent inflation rate of last year, a person retiring on an income of $500 a month would see his purchasing power cut in 10 years to a paltry $170. Even at today's 7 percent inflation rate, the check's value would be cut in 10 years nearly in half. This is why President Ford and Treasury Secretary Simon and other Administration leaders have repeatedly emphasized that even while we do our utmost to get the economy moving and get people back to work, we must not give up our simultaneous battle against inflation as our most critical long-range threat. And I hope that you, the press, will not hesitate to tell that like it is — that the path to economic trouble is paved with government deficit spending — that more consume-now-pay-later short-cuts to satisfaction in Washington can only mean a short-cut to crisis. Another critical area where you can help to better inform the nation lies in spelling out the real sources of jobs and high living standards. Expansion of productive plant and an increase in production efficiency is the only way to increase jobs, curb inflation, raise living standards and assure our ability to compete on world markets. And this can (more) come about only through greater investment in expanded and -5- *//3 modernized facilities. This is why Bill Simon stresses the need for tax changes and other policy approaches to shift the nation from overconsumption to increased savings and capital formation. We need to provide 3 million additional jobs right now to regain full employment — then 2 million more a year until 1980 to take care of new workers coming into the labor force, then 1-1/2 million a year thereafter. The private sector still provides over 80 percent of jobs in the nation, and badly needs help in generating profit and channeling a greater flow of funds into investment. Isn't this a better way to expand employment than through big new government spending programs? As America celebrates its 200th birthday, we need to rededicate ourselves to the kind of self-reliance, self-help, and self-determination that sparked our nation's dynamic growth and development. If we really want to bring government expansion and irresponsible spending policies under control, we will have to stop demanding that government step in every time a new problem arises and "do something." People will have to get back to doing it themselves. Otherwise, the economy may find itself strangled by red tape and foundering in red ink. Perhaps, beholding how efficiently government processes 43 million checks each month, we have become victims of overexpectations of what government is capable of doing in the more complex social areas. Take it from one who has seen the bureaucracy work at first hand, Big Government is simply not that effective, cannot be, and cannot be expected to be. It is no match for the ingenuity and dynamism of free people who are allowed to innovate, to work, to excel and to determine their own destiny. The private enterprise system is unquestionably facing its most serious threat since the 1930s. Shocks of energy price increases and rampant inflation have shaken the entire world, produced widespread turbulence, and driven the desperate more and more to government for saving measures. Yet, if we ourselves succumb to this temptation, it will mean still more central controls over the functioning of our economy and still more government spending programs. And as these new government actions further foul up the workings of the private sector, demands will arise for still further government intervention. Then, as government taxes more and more of a worker's income, at what point will he(more) lose motivation to work and decide, instead, to become a non-contributing recipient of public aid? Hit And at what point does business decide that with all the government controls over its operations and limitations on its ability to make a profit, it's just not worth the candle? And at what point does government stifle innovation and wreck the dreams of those who would found the IBMs and Xeroxes, the great newspapers and broadcast stations, of tomorrow? Indeed, looking at the natural propensity of politicians to vote new programs, and, in effect, to spend someone else's money, you wonder if the democratic system has built into it the seeds of its own self-destruction. Well, this scenario does not have to happen. As we stand at this crossroads, let's ask pointedly whether that really is the direction we want America to travel. If we are to avoid a lemming-like march into the sea, people will have to start demanding — and getting — balanced budgets, a hold-down on new government regulation and the kind of tax policies that will encourage initiative and expansion. An encouraging sign of hope in this respect came out of this week's Southern Governors Conference in Florida. There, 13 top state executives, expressing "unified and deep concern over the adverse economic impact of both the ever-growing size of the Federal Budget and this nation's chronic pattern of deficit spending," called for adoption of a constitutional amendment that would require the Federal Government to match revenues against outlays over a "multi-year period" that would allow for business-cycle downturns and national emergencies. The road of renewed responsibility on economic policies can also lead to a badly needed renewal of people's confidence in their government. Poll after poll shows marked deterioration in the public's mood, loss of credibility in all our major institutions, and a longing by people for a return to integrity and responsibility. I would suggest that a great start in this direction lies in what Bill Simon has well said: "We must stop promising people more than we can deliver — and we must deliver what we promise." It is also clear that we cannot cure a decade of sins by one day's penance. Correction will take time and uncharacteristic patience. What the President has been trying to do this year in holding the lid on government spending needs to be continued for a long time. In fact, I could not imagine a healthier development for the nation's economy — and for all the hopes (more) that people place on the state of that economy. -7- U/<9 I would hope that you who influence so intimately the course of political action in America would dedicate yourselves to the resolution of this momentous challenge of reining in on runaway government. Our future depends on it...• -0O0- ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY TO THE DELAWARE BICENTENNIAL CELEBRATION DOVER, DELAWARE, SEPTEMBER 20, 1975 GOVERNOR TRIBBITT, SENATORS ROTH AND BIDEN, MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, MAYOR CARROLL, DISTINGUISHED GUESTS, AND LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: IT IS A HIGH PERSONAL HONOR FOR ME TO JOIN YOU AT THESE FESTIVITIES AND TO BRING YOU THE WARMEST GREETINGS OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, THE NATION'S EYES TODAY ARE UPON DELAWARE, ACROSS THE LAND, THIS IS AFFECTIONATELY KNOWN AS "THE FLRST STATE" ~ THE FIRST STATE IN THE UNION TO RATIFY THE CONSTITUTION, THE FIRST STATE WHERE THE AMERICAN FLAG WAS UNFURLED DURING A REVOLUTIONARY BATTLE, AND THE STATE WHOSE SOLDIERS WERE WIDELY THOUGHT TO BE FIRST AND FOREMOST AMONG THE COLONIAL REGIMENTS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, I MIGHT ADD, YOUR CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION HAS ALSO BEEN AMONG THE FINEST IN WASHINGTON. SO IT IS CERTAINLY APPROPRIATE THAT TODAY DELAWARE ALSO BECOMES ONE OF THE FIRST STATES TO INAUGURATE THE NATION'S BICENTENNIAL CELEBRATION, YOU WILL HEAR MUCH DURING THIS BICENTENNIAL YEAR ABOUT THE GRANDEUR OF AMERICA. THERE WILL BE COUNTLESS TALES OF THE WAY THAT SMALL, FLEDGING COMMUNITIES CARVED A HOME OUT OF THE WILDERNESS. YOU WILL HEAR AGAIN HOW A NEW NATION WAS FORGED IN THE FLAMES OF WAR, UNITING MEN AND WOMEN FROM MANY FOREIGN LANDS. FROM THAT EARLY MELTING POT -- THAT SPILLED ACROSS THE PRAIRIES AND WAS CONTINUALLY ENRICHED BY NEW WAVES OF IMMIGRANTS — AROSE THE GIANT THAT WE KNOW TODAY: THE MIGHTIEST NATION ON EARTH, A NATION THAT HAS UNLOCKED THE SECRETS OF ABUNDANCE AND PLENTY, AND A NATION THAT HAS BEEN FAVORED BY THE BLESSINGS OF THE CREATOR. THESE ARE THE FAMILIAR TALES OF OUR PAST AND THEY WILL BE RETOLD MANY TIMES IN STORY AND SONG. YET AS THE STORIES OF OUR GROWTH AND PROSPERITY ARE REMEMBERED, I WOULD HOPE THAT YET ANOTHER THEME WILL ALSO BE SOUNDED, FOR WITHOUT IT, AMERICA WOULD NOT BE THE LAND WE LOVE SO WELL. TO ME, THAT THEME IS THE CENTERPIECE OF OUR HISTORY, THE BRIGHTEST STAR IN OUR FIRMAMENT. ALL OF YOU KNOW IT WELL, BUT IN TODAY'S WORLD, WE MUST t CONTINUALLY REMIND OURSELVES OF ITS LIVING REALITY, THAT THEME IS SIMPLY THIS: OUR COVENANT AS A PEOPLE THAT IN THIS LAND, FREEDOM AND INDEPENDENCE SHALL REIGN, HERE, SIR, THE PEOPLE GOVERN. No TYRANT, WHETHER HE SPRINGS FROM OUR OWN OR FOREIGN SOIL, SHALL RULE AMERICA. No SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT SHALL BE ALLOWED TO OPPRESS US AS A PEOPLE, To US, GOVERNMENTS DERIVE THEIR JUST POWERS FROM THE CONSENT OF THE GOVERNED, AND WE INSIST THAT OUR GOVERNMENT BE OF THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE, AND FOR THE PEOPLE. THESE ARE NOT MERE SLOGANS. THEY HAVE HAD A FLESH- AND-BLOOD MEANING FROM THE EARLIEST COLONIAL DAYS UNTIL NOW. THINK BACK FOR A MOMENT TO THE THREE PATRIOTS FROM DELAWARE WHO SIGNED THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE IN 1776. EACH OF THEM KNEW THAT HE WOULD BE BRANDED AS A TRAITOR BY THE BRITISH AND THAT HE AND HIS FAMILY WOULD NO LONGER BE SAFE, THEIR LIVES SHOWED, AS DID THOSE OF THE OTHER MEN IN PHILADELPHIA, THAT SIGNING THE DECLARATION WAS NOT JUST AN ACT OF WISDOM; IT WAS ALSO AN ACT OF COURAGE. THINK OF THOMAS MCKEAN (MC-KEEN) OF NEW CASTLE COUNTY, ONE OF THE EARLIEST BATTLERS FOR INDEPENDENCE. IN 1770, HE WROTE TO JOHN ADAMS THAT SINCE SIGNING THE DECLARATION THREE YEARS EARLIER, HE HAD BEEN "HUNTED LIKE A FOX BY THE ENEMY." FIVE TIMES HE WAS COMPELLED TO MOVE HIS FAMILY TO PLACES OF GREATER SAFETY, UNTIL AT LAST THEY FOUND REFUGE IN A LITTLE LOG-HOUSE ON THE BANKS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA. - b -. THINK OF GEORGE READ, THE FIRST ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THIS STATE, WHO WAS EVEN MORE ARDENTLY PURSUED AFTER HE SIGNED THE DECLARATION. ON ONE OCCASION, WHILE HE AND HIS FAMILY WERE CROSSING THE DELAWARE RlVER, THEIR SMALL BOAT WAS CAPTURED AND BOARDED BY THE BRITISH. ONLY BY ARTFULLY DECEIVING THE ROYAL NAVY THAT HE WAS A LOYALIST COUNTRY GENTLEMAN DID GEORGE READ ESCAPE. OR THINK OF CAESAR RODNEY WHO LIVED ONLY TWO BLOCKS FROM HERE IN DOVER. HE BADLY NEEDED MEDICAL TREATMENT FROM ABROAD IF HE WERE TO HAVE ANY HOPE OF PROLONGING HIS LIFE, AND HE KNEW THAT TO VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE WOULD CUT HIM OFF FROM DOCTORS IN THE BRITISH ISLES. BUT WHEN THE ISSUE OF FREEDOM WAS SQUARELY PRESENTED, CAESAR RODNEY MOUNTED HIS HORSE IN DOVER AND RODE ALL NIGHT TO PHILADELPHIA — 80 MILES THROUGH A THUNDERSTORM ~ SO THAT HE COULD JOIN IN DECLARING THE LIBERTY AND INDEPENDENCE OF THE COLONIES. TO ME, THIS IS THE SPIRIT OF '76 -- THE SPIRIT IN WHICH THOSE EARLY PATRIOTS, IN THE WORDS OF THE DECLARATION, PLEDGED TO EACH OTHER THEIR LIVES, THEIR FORTUNES, AND THEIR SACRED HONOR. IN THE HALLS OF THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY, ONLY A FEW STEPS FROM THE OVAL OFFICE, THERE HANGS ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS PAINTINGS OF EARLY AMERICA. IT DEPICTS THE DELEGATES OF EACH COLONY WORKING ON THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE IN JULY OF 1776. AS PEOPLE PASS BY THAT PORTRAIT TODAY, ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS THEY NOTICE IS THAT MANY OF THE FACES ARE BLANK AND MUCH OF THE PICTURE IS LEFT UNPAINTED. WHY IS IT BLANK, THEY ASK. WHY IS IT UNFINISHED? ONE ANSWER, I WOULD SUGGEST, IS THIS: BECAUSE THE WORK OF OUR FOUNDING FATHERS IS UNFINISHED. THE JOB OF PRESERVING AND EXTENDING OUR FREEDOM MUST STILL GO FORWARD. - 7 - • - - - "THE AMERICAN WAR IS OVER," AS ONE COLONIALIST SAID AFTER THE BRITISH SURRENDERED, "BUT THIS IS FAR FROM BEING THE CASE WITH THE AMERICAN REVOLUTION. .,. IT REMAINS YET TO ESTABLISH AND PERFECT NEW FORMS OF GOVERNMENT..." LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THAT REMAINS OUR FOREMOST TASK TODAY: TO CONTINUE THE WORK OF THE EARLY PATRIOTS, TO FORM A MORE PERFECT UNION SO THAT AS FREE AMERICANS WE MAY LIVE TOGETHER IN HAPPINESS AND IN PEACE. THE HAPPINESS TO WHICH WE ASPIRE IS NOT OURS BY DIVINE RIGHT. JUST AS THE REVOLUTION DEMANDED SACRIFICE AND STRUGGLE, SO NOW MUST WE COMMIT OUR FULL ENERGIES AND ATTENTIONS TO BUILDING A BETTER AMERICA. OUR CHALLENGES TODAY ARE MORE COMPLEX, THEY ARE NOT AS CLEAR CUT, BUT THEY ARE EVERY BIT AS DEMANDING. WE MUST OVERCOME THE MANY FLAWS IN OUR SOCIAL STRUCTURE. WE MUST END A LONG PATTERN OF ABUSES OF OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEM, ABUSES WHICH HAVE GIVEN US -8-. U¥> UNPARALLELED INFLATION AND THE MANY HUMAN HARDSHIPS THAT HAVE ACCOMPANIED OUR RECESSION. WE MUST PROVIDE EVERY INDIVIDUAL, REGARDLESS OF RACE OR SEX OR ETHNIC BACKGROUND, WITH AN EQUAL CHANCE AT THE STARTING LINE, AND WE MUST INSURE THAT AS WE GO ABOUT OUR WORK, WE DO NOT TRADE OUR HARDEARNED PERSONAL FREEDOMS TO OUR GOVERNMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR ILLUSORY PROMISES OF GREATER SECURITY AND COMFORT. AS ONE WHO HAS HAD THE PRIVILEGE OF WORKING IN OUR GREATEST FINANCIAL CENTER AS WELL AS IN THE CENTER OF OUR DEMOCRACY, I CANNOT EMPHASIZE TOO STRONGLY MY OWN BELIEF THAT PROSPERITY AND FREEDOM GO HAND-IN-HAND. WE CANNOT ENJOY THE FRUITS OF ONE WITHOUT MAINTAINING THE OTHER. SHOW ME A PEOPLE WHO HAVE FORFEITED THEIR ECONOMIC FREEDOMS, AND I SHALL SHOW YOU A PEOPLE WHO HAVE ALSO BEEN ENSLAVED BY THEIR RULERS. FROM SOME OF THE MOST POWERFUL PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES TODAY YOU HEAR THAT OUR PROBLEMS CAN ONLY BE SOLVED //M - 9 BY MASSIVE GOVERNMENTAL CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. THE BELIEF THAT AMERICANS CAN AND SHOULD SOLVE MANY OF THEIR PROBLEMS FOR THEMSELVES — AND THAT, INDEED, MOST AMERICANS PREFER TO LIVE THAT WAY — IS DISMISSED AS WISHFUL THINKING, NOSTALGIC SENTIMENTALITY FOR A WAY OF LIFE THAT IS NO LONGER RELEVANT TO TODAY'S NEEDS, I SAY TO YOU THAT THE SPIRIT OF FREEDOM IS THE MOST PRECIOUS PART OF OUR HERITAGE AND MUST BE PRESERVED ABOVE ALL ELSE. IT IS ONLY THROUGH A FREE SOCIETY THAT WE SHALL ALSO BE A PEACEFUL AND PROSPEROUS SOCIETY. THE MEN AND WOMEN OF THIS LAND STILL YEARN FOR THE LIBERTY — AS WELL AS THE RESPONSIBILITY — TO SHAPE THEIR OWN LIVES AND DESTINIES. i THE TRUTHS BY WHICH OUR FOREFATHERS LIVED ARE AS VALID TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY; MASSIVE GOVERNMENTAL INTERVENTION IS NO MORE ACCEPTABLE NOW THAN IT WAS THEN. IN THOSE EARLY YEARS, THE COLONIALISTS KNEW THAT IF THEIR ECONOMIC FREEDOMS WERE LOST, THEIR POLITICAL FREEDOMS WOULD ALSO BE SMASHED. AND SO THEY REBELLED: AGAINST THE SUGAR ACT, THE STAMP ACT, THE TEA ACT, AND A HOST OF OTHER INFRINGEMENTS UPON THEIR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL LIFE. AND IN THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE, THEY SPELLED OUT THEIR GRIEVANCES IN AN ELOQUENCE THAT SHOOK THE WORLD. THEY COULD NO LONGER TOLERATE, THEY SAID: -- ACTIONS BY THEIR RULERS WHICH "ERECTED A MULTITUDE OF NEW OFFICES, AND SENT SWARMS OF OFFICERS TO HARASS OUR PEOPLE,,." — ACTIONS BY THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT TO IMPOSE BURDENSOME TAXES ON US "WITHOUT OUR CONSENT;" ~ AND ACTIONS THAT WERE "ALTERING FUNDAMENTALLY OUR FORMS OF GOVERNMENT.,." EACH OF THESE WERE AMONG THE LONG TRAIN OF "REPEATED INJURIES AND USURPATIONS" THAT THOMAS JEFFERSON ENUMERATED IN THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE. YET, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THEM, HOW DIFFERENT ARE THEY FROM THE CONCERNS THAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH THE ARMY OF FEDERAL REGULATORS WHO HAVE GATHERED ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER? DO CITIZENS TODAY NOT FEEL THAT THEY ARE BURDENED WITH A TAX SYSTEM OVER WHICH THEY HAVE LITTLE REAL CONTROL? DO THEY NOT FEEL THAT THE POWER AND AUTHORITY OF OUR STATES HAS WITHERED AS THE POWER OF OUR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT HAS INCREASED? AND ARE NOT OUR ECONOMIC HOPES AMONG THE FOREMOST CONCERNS OF OUR PEOPLE TODAY, JUST AS THEY WERE TWO HUNDRED YEARS AGO? THE ANSWERS ARE CLEAR, AND EQUALLY CLEAR IS THE NEED OF PRESSING FORWARD IN THE SPIRIT OF '76 — TO RESURRECT AND EXTEND THE BOUNDARIES OF LIBERTY, TO MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE INSTRUMENTS OF GOVERNMENT WHERE THEY ARE NEEDED BUT TO ALTER AND ABOLISH THEM WHERE THEY ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY OR WHERE THEY INTRUDE TOO DEEPLY INTO OUR CHERISHED PERSONAL FREEDOMS. . i2 . 4# YOUR GOVERNMENT IN WASHINGTON TODAY IS MOST DISTRESSED BY THE CONDITIONS THAT NOW EXIST IN OUR ECONOMY. WE HAVE ACTED IN A WAY THAT WE THINK WILL BE EFFECTIVE TO REVIVE THE ECONOMY WITHOUT GENERATING ANOTHER RUINOUS WAVE OF INFLATION. WE SHALL CONTINUE TO ACT AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. WE SHALL CONTINUE TO BE GENEROUS TOWARD THOSE WHO ARE UNABLE TO DEFEND THEMSELVES AGAINST THE RAVAGES OF INFLATION AND RECESSION, BUT WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS RIGHT AND THAT IT IS WISE TO RESIST THE TEMPTATIONS TO INTERVENE MASSIVELY AS SOME URGE UPON US. To INCREASE GOVERNMENT SPENDING DRAMATICALLY, TO FLOOD THE MARKETS WITH NEW CURRENCY, TO IMPOSE NEW WAGE AND PRICE CONTROLS, TO WRAP OUR ECONOMY IN A GOVERNMENTAL STRAIT-JACKET — EACH OF THESE ACTIONS WOULD ULTIMATELY BURDEN YOU, THE AMRICAN PEOPLE, WITH FUTURE HARDSHIPS AND WOULD ROB YOU OF EVEN MORE OF YOURTREEDOM. THIS WE MUST NOT AND SHALL NOT DO. IF F R E E D O M IS T O B E P R E S E R V E D IN T H I S NATION, T H E N WE MUST ACT DECISIVELY TO MAINTAIN AND PROTECT IT. IT MUST NOT SLIP QUIETLY FROM OUR GRASP OR CONTINUALLY BE CHIPPED AWAY, BIT BY BIT, UNTIL OUR FOUNDATIONS COLLAPSE. AS JAMES MADISON TOLD THE VIRGINIA CONVENTION OF HIS DAY, "THERE ARE MORE INSTANCES OF THE ABRIDGMENT OF FREEDOM ... BY GRADUAL AND SILENT ENCROACHMENTS OF THOSE IN POWER THAN BY VIOLENT AND SUDDEN" ACTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT. THAT IS THE DANGER IN WHICH WE STAND TODAY: THAT WE WILL BE MISLED ONCE AGAIN INTO BELIEVING WE CAN OBTAIN A SAFER AND MORE SECURE FUTURE BY SACRIFICING BITS AND PIECES OF OUR FREEDOM, THAT THE HERITAGE WON FOR US ON BATTLEFIELDS STRETCHING FROM BUNKER HILL TO HAMBURGER HILL AND SECURED FOR US BY GENERATIONS OF TOIL WILL NOW BE SOLD FOR A MESS OF POTAGE. IF WE SUCCUMB TO THAT TEMPTATION — IF WE RETREAT DOWN THAT ROAD — WE SHALL FIND AT THE END NEITHER COMFORT NOR FREEDOM; WE SHALL FIND ONLY THE END OF THE AMERICAN DREAM. -M - J#1 THAT NEED NOT BE THE CASE. THE DIE IS NOT YET CAST. BUT A TIME OF DECISION IS SURELY HERE, EACH OF US IS CALLED UPON TO CHOOSE THE ROAD INTO THE FUTURE. TWO CENTURIES AGO, AFTER THE LONG AND ARDUOUS CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION HAD ENDED IN PHILADELPHIA, BENJAMIN FRANKLIN AROSE AND POINTED TO THE CHAIR WHERE GENERAL WASHINGTON HAD BEEN PRESIDING, ON WASHINGTON'S CHAIR WAS THE DESIGN OF A SUN LOW ON THE HORIZON, AND MANY OF THE DELEGATES HAD WONDERED WHETHER IT WAS A RISING OR A SETTING SUN, "WE KNOW NOW," FRANKLIN TOLD THE DELEGATES, "IT IS A RISING SUN AND THE BEGINNING OF A GREAT NEW DAY FOR AMERICA." LET THIS BICENTENNIAL YEAR BE THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER GREAT NEW DAY FOR AMERICA. LET THIS BIRTHDAY CELEBRATION BRING A RESURRECTION OF THE SPIRIT OF AMERICA. AND LET THE MOTTO THAT YOU - 15 CHOSEN FOR THIS GREAT STATE OF DELAWARE — "LIBERTY AND INDEPENDENCE" — RING FORTH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LAND. THANK YOU AND GOD SPEED. # # # vDepartmentoftheJREASURY NGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 J/S/ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 22, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.7 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.8 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on September 25, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing December 26, 1975 High Low Average Price Discount Rate 98.399 98.382 98.386 6.265% 6.331% 6.316% Investment Rate 1/ 6.47% 6.54% 6.53% 26-week bills maturing March 25, 1976 Price Discount Rate 96.564 a/ 96.547 96.550 6.796% 6.830% 6.824% Investment Rate 1/ 7.16% 7.19% 7.19% a/ Excepting 1 tender of $595,000 Tenders at the low price fo.: the 13-week bills were allotted 21%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 76%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 52,825,000 Boston $ New York - ,733,490,000 32,235,000 Philadelphia 92,460,000 Cleveland 45,140,000 Richmond 53,225,000 Atlanta 258,080,000 Chicago 64,460,000 St. Louis 34,820,000 Minneapolis 30,985,000 Kansas City 43,665,000 Dallas 165,495,000 San FranciscoTOTALS^4' 606,880,000 Accepted $ 33,335,000 2,181,480,000 31,230,000 54,060,000 30,560,000 36,735,000 139,080,000 46,065,000 14,475,000 30,485,000 19.470,000 83,795,000 Received 111 ,465,000 4,494 ,400,000 42 ,375,000 141 ,180,000 50 ,295,000 38 ,935,000 253 ,100,000 53 ,110,000 54 ,095,000 29 ,970,000 25 ,055,000 317 ,950,000 $2,700,770,000\_l $5,611,930,000 Accepted 13,715,000 2,506,860,000 10,125,000 38,780,000 15,515,000 20,935,000 57,690,000 34,720,000 7,095,000 22,970,000 14,055,000 61,350,000 $2,803,810,000 __l y Includes $458,800,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. £/ Includes $239,465,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. __/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. Contact: H.V. Hervey x2256 September 22, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY ANNOUNCES DETERMINATION OF SALES AT NOT LESS THAN FAIR VALUE ON RADIAL BALL BEARINGS, EXCLUDING THOSE WITH INTEGRAL SHAFTS, WITH AN OUTER DIAMETER OF 9mm AND OVER BUT NOT OVER 100mm, FROM JAPAN Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today a determination that radial ball bearings, excluding those with integral shafts, with an outer diameter of 9mm and over but not over 100mm, from Japan, are not being, nor are likely to be, sold at less than fair value within the meaning of the Antidumping Act, 1921, as amended. Notice of this decision will appear in the Federal Register of September 23, 1975. A Notice of Tentative Negative Determination was published in the Federal Register of June 23, 1975. Comparisons between purchase price or exporter's sales price and home market price revealed that purchase price or exporter's sales price was equal to or higher than the home market price of such or similar merchandise. During calendar year 1974, imports of the subject merchandise from Japan were valued at approximately $74 million. oOo FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. September 23, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $6,100,000,000 > thereabouts, to be issued October 2, 1975, or as follows: 92-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $3,000,000,000» or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated July 3, 1975, and to mature January 2, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YM2), originally issued in the amount of $2,701,100,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $3,100,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated October 2, 1975, and to mature April 1, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 ZA7). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing October 2, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $5,401,380,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,763,205,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, September 29, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. own account. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an ^ express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $500,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on October 2, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing ment. October 2, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MEMORANDUM FOR CORRESPONDENTS: September 23, 1975 Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon announced today that an evaluation of the Secret Service protective intelligence function has been intensified as a result of the two recent alleged assassination attempts on the President. In this connection, an outside evaluation of protective intelligence procedures has been redirected toward these incidents. He said that over the years since the Warren Commission first made its recommendations in 1964, the Treasury Department and the Secret Service have had numerous outside organizations (including psychiatric, criminal, behavioral psychologists and other specialists from the academic and Government community) review all aspects of the Secret Service protective function. To give some perspective to the magnitude of the task facing the Secret Service, the Secretary noted that the Secret Service in a normal year screens 200,000 pieces of information regarding persons of possible protective interest; as a result of this input, it interviews 4,000 people in connection with its protective responsibilities; it arrests approximately 60 people as a result of distinct threats ;made against protected officials; identifies 275300 people who merit special attention in connection with each trip of a protected official. Secretary Simon noted that "in striving to perfect procedures, neither the Secret Service nor we at Treasury are ever satisfied with the job we are doing in this area, and this is particularly true when two back-to-back incidents like this occur. The public can be sure that the Secret Service will continue to operate in as effective a manner as is humanly possible in a free society." oOo IS «*> a> ,-1 •_z 10 federal financing bank 5 <? o- «• E *o WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE «/> <* co CM _ O ,*- CM September 24, 1975 Summary of Lending Activity V J' ^ September 1 - September 15, 1975 Federal Financing Bank lending activity for the period September 1 through September 15, 19 75 was announced as follows by Roland H. Cook, Secretary: The Bank made the following advances to borrowers guaranteed by the Department of Defense under the Foreign Military Sales Act: Interest Date Borrower Amount Rate Maturity 9/2 Government of 9/3 Government 9/5 Government 9/15 Government 9/15 Government The FFB made guaranteed by the Brazil $ 8,451,193 8.050% 3/15/84 of Greece 30,000,000 8.385% 7/ 1/85 of the Philippines 2,000,000 8.405% 12/31/81 of Brazil 1,258,132 8.050% 3/15/84 of Korea 7,596,614 8.675% 6/30/83 the following loans to utility companies Rural Electrification Administration: Date Borrower Amount Interest Rate Maturity 9/2 United Telephone Co. (Wisconsin) $2,167,500 8.510% 12/31/09 9/2 St. Joseph Telephone § Telegraph Co. (Florida) 1,220,037 7.976% 9/ 3/77 9/2 Oglethorpe Electric Membership Ass'n (Georgia) 7,187,000 8.510% 12/31/09 9/5 Murraysville Telephone Co. (Pennsylvania) 891,935 8.568% 12/31/09 9/5 United Power Ass'n (Minnesota) 2,900,000 8.568% 12/31/09 9/8 Doniphan Telephone Co. (Arkansas) 432,668 8.622% 12/31/09 (Over) $1 9/10 - 2Colorado-Ute Electric Association $2,800,000 8.132% 9/12/77 9/12 Tri-State Generation $ 2,469,000 8.544% 7/15/78 Transmission Ass'n (Colorado) Interest payments are made quarterly on the above REA loans. The US Railway Association made three drawings against its line of credit with the Bank: Date Amount Interest Rate Maturity 9/2 9/11 9/15 $25,000,000 1,500,000 4,500,000 6.671% 6.697% 6.744% 11/24/75 11/24/75 11/24/75 On September 2, the Student Loan Marketing Association borrowed $35 million from the FFB at an interest rate of 6.71%. The loan matures November 18, 1975. The Export Import Bank borrowed $670 million from the FFB on September 2: Amount Interest Rate Maturity $170,000,000 8.320% 3/1/79 500,000,000 8.375% 9/1/79 On September 10, the General Services Administration borrowed $2,543,127.28 against its $107 million commitment with the Bank. The interest rate is 8.745%. The loan matures November 15, 2004. On September 15, Amtrak, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation made a $20 million drawing against its line of credit which matures December 1, 1975. The interest rate is 6.792%. On September 15, the Tennessee Valley Authority borrowed $30 million from the Bank at an interest rate of 6.785%. loan matures December 31, 1975. The Federal Financing Bank loans outstanding on September 15, 1975 totalled $15 billion. # # & FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 24, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 29-MONTH TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $2.0 billion of the $3.9 billion of tenders received from the public for the 29-month notes, Series G-1978, auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield 8.05% 1/ Highest yield 8.13% Average yield 8.10% The interest rate on the notes will be 8%. At the 8% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 99.893 High-yield price Average-yield price 99.722 99.786 The $2.0 billion of accepted tenders includes 75 % of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $1.1 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $0.1 billion of tenders were accepted at the average-yield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Excepting 3 tenders totaling $295,000 FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE GERALD L. PARSKY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT AND MONETARY POLICY OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND CURRENCY WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 1975, AT 10:00 A.M. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: I am pleased to respond to the Chairman's request to discuss United States policy with respect to foreign investment and the Treasury Department's role in foreign investments in the United States. You have also asked me to discuss the proposed acquisition of Copperweld Corporation by the French enterprise, Societe Imetal. Although it is inappropriate for me to discuss the merits of the proposed investment, in part because it is currently the subject of litigation in the courts, I am fully prepared to dis- cuss, in accordance with the Chairman's request, how our investmen policy in general relates to this case and the role that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has played in connection with it. WS-383 - 2Traditional U.S. Policy I think it would be useful to review briefly for you our traditional policy with respect to foreign investment here, so that you will have a fuller appreciation of the context within which the Administration has acted in this sphere. U.S. policy with respect to international investment has generally been based on the premise that we should rely on the private market as the most efficient means to determine the allocation and use of capital in the international economy. Accordingly, our basic policy toward foreign investment in the United States has reflected an "open door" approach. That is, we offer foreigners no special incentives to invest here and, with a few internationally recognized exceptions, have imposed no special barriers. Furthermore, foreign investors are generally treated equally with domestic investors once they are established here. There are a number of important reasons for our maintaining an open policy toward foreign investment. First, foreign investment helps us to meet our large and rapidly growing capital needs. At a time when firms are facing difficult financing requirements, we believe it would not be wise to raise new restrictions on the available sources of capital. Our open policy towards capital flows is conducive to a healthy growing U.S. economy and in this respect is beneficial to domestic capital formation. Moreover, at a time when unprecedented budget deficits will place extraordinary demands on our capital //// - 3markets, we should not close off those markets to willing investors from abroad. Second, foreign-owned companies have yielded the U.S. economy the same benefits as their domestically-owned counterparts -- that is, employment opportunities, tax revenues, and competitively-priced goods and services. Some foreign investors have brought unique technology to this country, while others have played a major role in the development of particular states or regions, bringing more jobs and other important benefits to their economies. Our experience has been that the behavior of these companies does not differ from that of domestically-owned firms. The ownership of these companies has not altered their willingness to abide by our laws, and they still must.compete in our marketplace. Third, as this Subcommittee is particularly aware, we are by far the largest foreign investor in the world. The book value of our direct investments overseas -- amounting to well over $100 billion -- is several times greater than foreign direct investment here. Furthermore, we now have treaties of friendship, commerce and navigation with many nations under which they have been promised that their investors -- with certain well-defined exceptions -- will be given equal treatment with American citizens with respect to investments within the United States. A consideration we constantly keep in mind is the necessity that we not endanger these important treaties, which provide parallel rights to U.S. investors in those countries. Finally, we must always be aware of the responsibilities attached to the leadership role we play in the world's economy. If we were to abandon our historical support for freedom of movement for capital and adopt investment restrictions, other nations cduld be expected to follow suit and restrict U.S. investment to a much greater degree than they currently do. The need for worldwide cooperation is great at this time, and we must not risk leading the nations of the world to a retreat into economic isolation. 1975 Policy Review Despite these considerations, many expressed concerns about the rapid growth in the hands of a few governments of funds available for investment abroad, and we, therefore, recently conducted a complete review of our investment policy and the effectiveness of our relevant laws and regulations. The review was completed in late winter and its results were presented to Congress in several hearings earlier this year. Our basic conclusion was that the traditional U.S. open policy with respect to foreign investment in this country should be maintained. We have, therefore, opposed proposals for any new restrictions on foreign investment in this country. Underlying our decision is the belief that our existing laws, regulations, and practices provide extensive information with respect to foreign investments as well as adequate safeguards to deal with potential problems that might arise in « the case of particular investments. & There is a formidable array of such laws, and I am sure that few people in this country really understand the extent of the protection they provide us against abuses by foreign investors. There are, for example, a number of specific laws which prohibit or limit foreign investment in certain areas of our economy for reasons of national security or to protect an essential national interest. These sectors include atomic energy, domestic airlines, shipping, Federally-owned land, communications and media, and fishing. Secondly, there are many laws which prevent abuses in specific sectors. defense area. Among the most important are those in the The Defense Department may deny security clearances required to do classified work for the government to any firm under "foreign ownership, control or influence." Foreign invest- ment in defense production facilities, although not expressly prohibited, is severely limited by the prospect that such an acquisition could result in the firm's losing its classified government contracts. Exports of arms and of classified tech- nology related to defense manufacture are also effectively controlled. Finally, foreign investors are subject to the same laws and regulatory constraints American firms must observe. Many of these are quite familiar, but are not usually thought of as protections against abuse by foreign investors. -- Our antitrust laws prevent a foreign investor from monopolizing a specific sector, or engaging in various anti-competitive practices. They also prevent foreign investors acting singly or in a group from making a purchase of, or engaging in a merger or joint venture with, a U.S. firm if the result would be to substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly. -- Our export control authority provides protection against the export of any product or resource if our national security is threatened, if there is an excessive drain of scarce materials and a serious inflationary impact from foreign demand, or if controls are needed to further U.S. foreign policy. Special, more detailed, rules apply to exports of armarments and certain types of energy. Our securities laws require disclosures of significant foreign ownership, prevent harmful activities with respect to tender offers and stock market price manipulation and generally preserve orderly markets. Our labor laws require all firms operating in the United States to refrain from unfair labor practices and to assure all workers safe and healthful working conditions. Finally the President has broad emergency powers, including (1) the Trading with the Enemy Act, which gives him the power during a war or national emergency to control completely any property in the U.S. in which any foreign country or national thereof has any interest; (2) condemnation power &</r - 7over any property within our jurisdiction; and, (3) priority performance powers which authorize the President to order the priority performance of defense related contracts, to allocate materials and facilities necessary for national defense, and to place priority orders for a particular product and to take possession of the facility if they are not fulfilled. Despite these extensive safeguards, we did feel that certain new administrative actions to supplement our existing laws and regulations would be desirable. These included: Creation of a new Office on Foreign Investment in the United States, in the Department of Commerce, to synthesize and analyze the data on foreign investment in the United States which is collected by various U.S. Government agencies. Although considerable data on foreign investment has been collected by individual agencies, until the creation of this office there was no central collection or dissemination point for analysis of individual investments. Establishment of a new high-level Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to monitor the impact of foreign investment in this country and to coordinate the formation of U.S. policy on such investment. Arrangements with the foreign governments for advance consultation with the U.S. Government on their prospective major investments in the United States. d - 8- Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States During the past months, we have made significant progress in implementing these new arrangements. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (the "Committee") was established on May 7, 1975 pursuant to Executive Order 11858. Under this Executive Order, the Committee has "primary continuing responsibility within the Executive Branch for monitoring the impact of foreign investment in the United States, both direct and portfolio, and for coordinating the implementation of the United States policy on such investment." The membership of the Committee consists of representatives of Government departments and agencies which are generally concerned with foreign investment issues, including among others State, Commerce, Defense, and Treasury, whose representative serves as Chairman. Thus, the Treasury Department has responsibility for coordinating the activities of the Committee. The Committee also invites representatives of other agencies which have an interest in a particular issue under review to participate in its discussions of that issue. - 9 - ' Also as implementation of the Executive Order, the Commerce Department has established an Office of Foreign Investment in the United States to support the Committee's activity. The Office's responsibilities include developing a consistent and timely data collection and processing system on foreign investment activity in the United States; providing evaluations and reports concerning the impact of foreign investment to the Committee; and preparing reports for publication. The Office has been preparing statistical and other analyses for the use of the Committee and is working intensively with a mangement consulting team and other government agencies to develop improvements in the existing system to secure more complete and timely data. - 10 Committee Review of Specific Investments In addition to its overall policy responsibilities, the Committee is required to "review investments in the United States which, in the judgment of the Committee, might have major implications for the United States national interest." With respect to specific investment transactions, the Committee is primarily concerned with direct investment in the U.S. by foreign governments -- although the Committee may review those extraordinary private investments which may clearly adversely affect the national interest. As part of our policy, we have asked all foreign governments contemplating significant foreign investment in this, country to hold prior consultations with the United States. The Committee is to assist in these consultations. We already have had clear indications that other countries recognize our legitimate interests with respect to investments in the U.S. by foreign governments. In fact, I have personally discussed this policy with the major potential government investors in the Middle East and found a broad acceptance of our desire for consultations as long as they are applied to all governments on a non-discriminatory basis; and, of course, they will be equitably applied. The experience we had with Iran in connection with its proposed investment in Pan Am and with Romania in connection with its proposed joint venture with Island Creek Coal Co. are good examples of how //// - 11 such procedures can work to the satisfaction of both governments. I think the easiest way for me to explain how the Committee might review a major foreign government investment proposal would be to explain on a step-by-step basis the procedures we would follow on handling cases that come before us. Most commonly, Committee involvement in a particular case would be touched off by the receipt from a foreign government of notification of its intent to make an investment. When we receive notification from a foreign government, the information supplied is analyzed initially by the staff of the Secretary of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. in the Treasury Department. The action taken will be determined in accordance with the facts in the case. The Committee could, for example, simply indicate that it had "no objection" to the investment. Alternatively, the Committee may decide to request consultations and to initiate a more extensive review procedure. This could range from asking the investor for one additional piece of information to undertaking lengthy consultations. It is anticipated that only a few investments that come before the Committee will reach the stage in which extensive consultations would be required. The Committee would handle private investments somewhat differently. The key difference is that we have not I/6 - 12 specifically requested that private investors enter into prior consultations on proposed investments. We would regard such a requirement as both unnecessary and inappropriate. In the event that a private investment which came to our attention could clearly have adverse implications for our national interest, the Committee would ask the parties involved to consult with it. Potential Acquisition of Copperweld Corporation We initially became aware of the proposed takeover of Copperweld Corporation by Societe Imetal through public reports of the French firm's tender offer. As the issues involved in the case became clearer, the new office at the Commerce Department kept abreast of the situation by establishing contacts within the other U.S. Government agencies involved in the case. I was in touch with the French Ambassador and other officials here in Washington in order to clarify our policy with respect to foreign investment in the United States and to ascertain to what degree the French Government was involved in this investment. They advised me that there is no French Government involvement in the management of Societe Imetal. 4r/ - 13 The Committee became officially involved when it received a letter, dated September 10, 1975, from Mr. Phillip H. Smith, Chairman and President of Copperweld Corporation, concerning the proposed acquisition of his firm. Some days earlier, Under Secretary Yeo, the Chairman of the Committee, had notified its members that he had disqualified himself from participating in any consideration of any U.S. Government action concerning the proposed transaction because of his prior professional relationship and friendship with Mr. Smith. Consequently, on receipt of his letter, I assumed the post of Acting Chairman and determined that the Committee should review the issues Mr. Smith had raised. Committee was called for September 18th. A meeting of the In preparation for the meeting, the new Office of Foreign Investment in the United States, in the Commerce Department, investigated the background of the case, drawing upon resources within the Commerce Department and its contacts with officials of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department. My staff and that of the office were also in contact with the Department of Defense, which was analyzing the possible defense implications of the transaction. - 14 - H& After full consideration of the facts, the Committee concluded that it had no basis for interposing itself in this transaction. This conclusion has been communicated to Mr. Smith. Conclusion The lessons we have drawn from our analysis of our experience with this case provide the answers to many of the questions you raised, Mr. Chairman, in your invitation to me to testify today. First, the conclusion of our policy review that we should not require prior notification with respect to private investments continues to be sound. Both the new office at Commerce and our staff at the Treasury Department were closely following the developments with respect to Copperweld at an early stage, and we were able to act expeditiously on it once it was formally brought before us. Second, none of the developments in this case indicate to us a need for additional legislation to safeguard the national interests in regard to foreign investments in this country. We continue to feel that our current safeguards against abuses of investment in this country, by domestic and foreign persons, are adequate and we see no reasons to depart from our traditional open policy. - 15 During the past decade, foreign investors have become increasingly attracted to invest in the United States for a number of reasons: we offer a vast, affluent, and integrated market; we are rich in natural and human resources needed to service such investment; and there are intangible benefits, such as access to advanced technology, which result from participation in the U.S. market. However, the single most important factor has been that our markets have remained open and we have afforded domestic and foreign investors equal treatment. I believe it is essential that we protect our national interests, but this can be done without altering this basic underlying policy. I hope that these remarks will be useful to your Committee, Mr. Chairman, and I will be happy to answer any further questions you may have. o 0o STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE EDWARD C. SCHMULTS UNDER SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE COMMUNITY AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT TASK FORCE OF THE HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE SEPTEMBER 24, 1975, 10:00 A.M. EDT Madame Chairman and Members of the Task Force, I appreciate the opportunity to discuss with you today the Administration's views on the General Revenue Sharing program. I am especially hopeful that I can make some contribution to the successful operation of the new Congressional budget process. The success of your effort to establish overall national spending priorities is essential if we are to succeed in soon operating again under a balanced Federal budget. Before proceeding to the substance of my remarks, I would like to explain my involvement in the Administration's effort to renew revenue sharing. To begin with, as Under Secretary of the Treasury, my office has supervisory responsibility for the Office of Revenue Sharing. Additionally, I had the pleasure to serve as chairman of the interagency steering group which last year reviewed how revenue sharing has worked and developed recommendations about the program's renewal for Secretary Simon to submit to the President. On the whole, I think it is not difficult to justify the need for General Revenue Sharing, even as it competes for priority against numerous other Federal programs. Like any program, revenue sharing should be judged in terms of the goals which it was designed to accomplish. Any successful legislative proposal is likely to receive political support for varying, and sometimes contradictory, reasons. General Revenue Sharing is no exception. Nevertheless, I think we can identify at least three broad and mutually consistent roles which the Congress foresaw for General Revenue Sharing. WS-384 Revenue sharing was enacted to help overcome certain imbalances within our Federal system of decentralized government, within the array of intergovernmental aid programs offered by the national government, and among the various State and local jurisdictions. The imbalance within the Federal system basically involved a lack of sufficient financial resources at State and local levels of government to perform those public functions which they could do best. This poor distribution of resources and authority among levels of government was not adequately addressed by then existing Federal assistance programs. Federal grants available to State and local jurisdictions predominantly involved programs heavily encumbered with national requirements and limited to very specific uses. Finally, the distribution of financial resources among States and localities did not always match the distribution of demands for services. The imbalances which revenue sharing has sought to correct continue to merit attention. A vital federalism capable of guarding against the overcentralization of power and of providing responsive government in a large and diverse nation is as much a priority today as it was two hundred years ago. In an age when a large and distant Federal government must concentrate on foreign affairs, defense, and other national issues, there is a pressing need to make sure that governments close to our citizens have the fiscal strength to carry out those local tasks they can best accomplish. State and local governments possess a degree of awareness of citizen problems and a potential for citizen participation not ordinarily available at the Federal level. Additionally, general purpose — as opposed to special district or limited function — governmental units are headed by elected legislators and executives who must devise a coordinated approach to a wide variety of public responsibilities. Because of this breadth of responsibility and responsiveness, placing Federal funds in the hands of elected local officials through revenue sharing does make for efficient and honest use of these monies. 3 - //r& The second condition upon which the need for General Revenue Sharing was originally predicated was the fact that Federal assistance to governments was heavily weighted in the direction of categorical grants. While General Revenue Sharing and several new block grant programs have recently added greater flexibility in the total aid available, all levels of government still face the administrative burdens and inefficiencies associated with some types of categorical grants. Just last month the General Accounting Office released a report entitled "Fundamental Changes in Federal Assistance to State and Local Governments" discussing the problems raised by providing grants with narrowly defined purposes and numerous restrictions. Difficulties noted include: inadequate information about programs for potential recipients; too complex application procedures; intricate administrative requirements; and obstacles presented to State and local planning. Administration of these grants-in-aid is also very difficult for the Federal government to coordinate. What often results is a very fragmented and duplicative delivery system which directs funds in response to applications, rather than on the basis of need. Jurisdictions which are small and poor especially lack the resources to effectively deal with these informational and administrative demands. Program funds may also not be used in the most effective fashion since categorical grants tend to substitute Federal priorities for State and local knowledge about needs. By no means do I intend to suggest that we do not need narrowly-defined intergovernmental aids in program areas where clearly identified national priorities exist. My point is that we also need the flexible general support assistance provided by General Revenue Sharing. We should not expect either mode of Federal assistance to accomplish purposes for which it was not intended. /fs'7 -4 - When Congress enacted the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act in 1972, there was a desire on its part to effect a modest redistribution of resources among States and localities, in other words, to better make the financial resources of government match their needs to provide services. The Administration is of the opinion that the pattern by which revenue sharing has been distributed and the uses to which governments have put their funds have helped to provide a better match between need and fiscal ability. Madame Chairman and Members of the Task Force, thus far I have quite simply been arguing that while revenue sharing has been a success, the conditions which the Congress originally intended that it address continue to exist. Consequently, the rationale for its original enactment is also applicable to its renewal. President Ford feels that this approach to Federal domestic assistance claims a top priority in competition with other important claims on our national tax dollars. This view is particularly forceful if one agrees that a strong Federal system, a balanced system of intergovernmental aid, and an effort to better relate need to capacity are national priorities. Because General Revenue Sharing must compete with other claims on the Treasury in a time of large Federal deficit and continuing inflationary danger, the President has not proposed an expansion in the base funding level or the size of normal annual increases in the program. We are asking that the present approach of providing $150 million annual increments be continued. The total cost of the President's program over the 5-3/4-year renewal period proposed is $39.85 billion, compared to $30.2 billion for the present 5-year program. A $75 million funding bulge from the last months of the current program would be moved forward into the new program to continue to provide linear stair-step increases. Annual program costs at the end of the proposed extension period would be about $937 million more than at the beginning. In addition, a total of $27.5 million would be made available at the existing annual rate to provide price-adjustments to the allocations of the noncontiguous States, Alaska and Hawaii, when they qualify for this adjustment. While the total funding involved in the President's renewal package is quite large, the annual increase in funding level is only in the area of two percent, and this percentage declines as time passes. Of course, these annual add-ons only partially compensate for the impact of inflation at current rates. They are, however, the maximum that the Administration feels is justified in light of competing claims for the Federal tax dollar. //f9 - 5 I would now like to turn to a somewhat fuller explanation of why the Administration gives General Revenue Sharing such high marks on performance. As suggested earlier, a careful assessment of the program's performance and renewal options was made by a Treasury Department, Office of Management and Budget and Domestic Council Steering Group during the last half of 1974. The review effort culminated in some basic decisions by President Ford at the end of December. As a part of our study, we familiarized ourselves with critiques of the program's operations and suggestions for change from Congress, the General Accounting Office, the Brookings Institution, the National Clearinghouse on Revenue Sharing, public interest groups representing governments and various social groups, and National Science Foundation research then available. We have continued to assess new information about revenue sharing that has appeared since our legislative proposal was drafted. In addition to reliance on the sources mentioned above, we carried on our own examination of institutional arrangements, and statistical data relevant to the past operation of the program, as well as the probable impact of proposed alterations. In settling upon recommendations for the President, we concentrated on alternative approaches to revenue sharing extension in the following issue areas: - length and manner of funding - the allocation formulas and associated procedures, such as the division of funds between States and localities and the constraints on local allocations - non-discrimination - restrictions on the use of funds - public participation and publicity - governmental reform As is clear to everyone, there has been no lack of evaluation or shortage of recommendations about revenue sharing. The Administration has been receptive to changes in the authorizing legislation which offer strong hope of improving the program. We have not proposed major amendments for several reasons. We #7 - 6 - are committed to giving high priority to what we view are primary goals of revenue sharing — strengthening the Federal system, improving the delivery of Federal assistance, and helping States and localities to meet serious needs. We feel that the existing program has done a very credible job of meeting these priorities. At the same time, we do not think that General Revenue Sharing can be designed to solve all the political and social problems of our society. To attempt to make it do so will reduce its contribution as flexible, unencumbered Federal assistance. Let me discuss some of the things we do not think revenue sharing is suited to do. Shared revenues really have only limited ability to bring about governmental and tax reform in the jurisdictions where they are placed. Revenue sharing is not normally a large enough portion of the total resources of a recipient government to overcome political and legal resistance to such reforms. This explains the seemingly limited incentive provided for use of individual income taxes by the existing five-factor interstate formula. If we attempt to further tailor General Revenue Sharing to serve as an incentive for such reforms, we are most likely to destroy its flexibility. The same end is probable should we try to direct the benefits of shared funds onto selected social groups. Categorical or block grants are much more appropriate for this purpose as well as for encouraging structural or fiscal reforms. Resources drawn from the relatively more efficient and equitable Federal tax system have been made available to States and localities through revenue sharing without the red tape associated with most other Federal assistance. From the Federal vantage point we have not seen the erection of a large and expensive bureaucracy to administer the program. Expenditures on its administration are around 0.12%, as compared to about 2% for general Federal aid to State and local units of government. The existing revenue sharing allocation formulas have performed well in directing relatively more resources per capita into needier jurisdictions. There is a tendency on the part of some critics to overlook this very important broad success. It is not a simple matter to develop an allocation formula which performs as well as revenue sharing given the diversity of governmental and fiscal situations across this large Nation. It is by no means certain that the Congress could again successfully blend competing philosophical, geographical, and and jurisdictional interests a formula one. as equitable broadly acceptable as to theachieve existing - 7The Brookings Institution, the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, and the General Accounting Office all report that poorer, as compared to richer, States receive generally greater revenue sharing allocations. For example, Brookings reports that for 1972, Mississippi received $39.90 per capita, as compared to $28.05 for California. Hard-pressed center cities, according to ACIR and Brookings, also receive higher per capita allocations than do their wealthier suburbs. The higher costs of government in urban areas is taken account of by the existing allocation formulas in other ways too. Brookings data indicates that the most densely populated county areas, and county areas with over one million population, receive higher than average (as compared to other county areas) per capita amounts. In fact, during 1972, counties falling within standard metropolitan statistical areas received over 70 percent of local shared revenue. A second way in which to assess revenue sharing's response to need is through the manner in which recipient governments utilize the funds they receive under the program. All.who have attempted to analyze the fiscal impacts of shared funds have agreed that the degree of fungibility of this essentially "no strings" aid program makes this a most difficult task. At the same time, one should bear in mind that monies from all Federal assistance programs to some degree release State and local resources for other uses that are difficult to identify. Various methodologies have been utilized to identify the uses to which shared funds are put. Office of Revenue Sharing Use Reports depend on reports from recipient governments. Interviews with officials, examinations of budget documents, and the tracing of trends in expenditures have variously been utilized by GAO, Brookings, and the NSF-sponsored studies. It has proven easier to identify broad fiscal impacts — such as use for new capital spending, operational expenditures, or tax reduction — than specific functional use. There does not, however, seem to be much doubt that allocations have been widely used to maintain existing vital services, to make possible needed capital expenditures, and to lessen the burden of State and local taxation. These broad impacts of revenue sharing clearly result in benefits to all citizens. Yet, some commentators have felt that General Revenue Sharing plays too small a role in solving - 8 the numerous social problems of our Nation and directs too little money to meeting the needs of the poor, aged, and minorities. Again, I must point out that other programs are targeted onto these important issues. Revenue sharing seeks primarily to respond to the institutional needs of our Federal system and the governments which are within that system. We as individuals all benefit from the greater effectiveness of our governments. Madame Chairman, the Administration has little doubt that revenue sharing also has more direct impact in solving social problems than is evident at first glance. Some of the ways it does so are: - It frees up local resources for social expenditure. - Education is the main use reported by States. - Capital expenditures are often for schools, hospitals, low cost housing, etc. - Funds reported as spent in functional categories other than for the poor and aged often can be of benefit to the underprivileged — e.g. health, transportation, law enforcement, environmental, and recreational expenditures. - Some jurisdictions have used allocations to redress past discrimination. - Revenue sharing shifts the financing of activities away from relatively more regressive State and local taxes to the relatively more progressive Federal income tax. - As recipients become more certain about the program's future and perhaps more financially pressed, they are spending more money on recurring program costs than on capital expenditures. The funding levels for revenue sharing proposed in H.R. 6558 represent a compromise between the national necessity to keep down Federal budgetary deficits, the need to adequately fund competing priorities and the real fiscal needs of States //U - 9 and communities. Similarly, the manner of funding we are recommending balances the need for Congress and the President to control and regularly review expenditures against the very real need which States and localities have for the certainty and predictability of Federal support. We are proposing to continue the present approach to the funding of General Revenue Sharing by providing a 5-3/4-year authorization and appropriation. The 3/4-year is included so that the program conforms to the new Federal fiscal year. We would also have the Secretary of the Treasury report recommendations on further extension of the Act by September 30, 1980, two years before the renewed program's termination. This would assure that Congress has enough time to carefully consider further extension and thereby also assist State and local budgetary planning. H.R. 6558 would take advantage of exemption available to General Revenue Sharing from subsections 401(a) and (b), of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974. Exemption is specifically permitted from that statute if provided for by Congress in legislation to renew the program. There are other programs in addition to revenue sharing where Congress has recognized the requirements of State and local budgetary planning by granting advanced spending authority. We have rejected proposals for a longer or permanent appropriation, possibly tied to the Federal income tax base or the Consumer Price Index. These approaches offer inadequate opportunity for review and control. We applaud the efforts that Congress has recently made to strengthen its budgetary process. These improvements should increase the predictability of much of the Federal funding going to State and local activities by providing more timely appropriations, as well as appropriations that are in line with authorizations. At the same time, we feel that adequate planning for wise use of shared funds requires sufficient advanced knowledge of funding levels by recipient governments. Clearly, annual appropriations for revenue sharing would not provide such. When the Joint Committee on Congressional Operations considered changing the Federal fiscal year in 1971, it heard extensive testimony about the difficulties faced by State and local governments if they were not well advised as to how much Federal assistance would be available to them in the immediate future. - 10 Ineffective and hasty planning, expensive construction delays, and delays in important people-oriented services all result from such uncertainty. These developments can mean that citizens receive less than maximum benefit from revenue sharing dollars. The capital projects on which small governments spend considerable portions of their shared revenues require especially long lead times. An important reality of State and local budgeting that further increases the need to know how much Federal funding will be available is the fact that most State and local executives must present a balanced budget to their legislative bodies. Officials are aided by the fact that borrowing is normally counted on the receipt side of these budgets. However, the flexibility of non-Federal governments to borrow and tax to meet short-term deficits varies and, on the whole, is more restricted than that of the Federal Government. Many of these problems are immediate in that States and localities are currently beginning to put together budgets for fiscal year 1977. Revenue sharing funds for only one-half of that fiscal period are provided for by the existing State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act. The fiscal years of forty-six States begin on July 1, and agencies must normally submit their requests to their State budget office by at least October 15 of the prior year. Thus, in a matter of weeks most State budget offices will begin to evaluate agency requests for fiscal year 1977 and weigh them against possible revenues. At the local level, fiscal years and budgetary cycles vary considerably by State and often vary within States. The Census of Governments reports that most county, municipal, and township fiscal years begin on July 1 or January 1. In larger units of local government particularly, budgetary cycles extend over a nine-month period, just as they do at the State level. As a result, fiscal year 1977 budget planning will often begin this fall at the local government level, too. So, as you can see, it is extremely important to both States and local governments that Congress act upon the renewal of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act as soon as possible. - 11 Before concluding my testimony, Madame Chairman and Members of the Task Force, I would like to briefly summarize the content of H.R. 6558. The bill proposes renewal of revenue sharing in its current general outlines. It seeks change only where it is really justifiable without threatening the disruption of a broadly successful program. I have already described our approach to the funding of the renewal program, which essentially would continue current arrangements. H.R. 6558 also does not change the basic allocation formulas, which we think perform reasonably well, especially given the difficulties of constructing formulas for nationwide application. The bill only alters the manner in which funds are distributed in one major way. It would raise the local 145 percent per capita limitation of average statewide entitlements to 175 percent in five steps. This would allow the intrastate formula to allocate funds in line with its standards of need more freely. Some needy governments, in a number of cases large cities, would benefit from this amendment. Since the change would be phasedin through five steps, other jurisdictions would be protected from serious losses by the annual increments to the total funding of the program. While the Administration's legislation does not propose to remove any important national standards for using shared revenues, it does seek to increase the program's flexibility of use and administration. Flexibility is clearly at the core of the GRS approach to Federal assistance. The Secretary of the Treasury would be given the discretion to make reporting and publication requirements governing use of funds more useful to local citizens and the Federal Government and less burdensome on those who must provide the information. Those requirements relating to nondiscriminatory use of funds and public participation in State and local decision making about use of GRS funds are essential and reflective of the program's original philosophy. We have sought to clarify and strengthen these provisions in the new legislation. H.R. 6558 expressly defines the remedies available to the Secretary of the Treasury in seeking civil rights compliance. The legislation seeks to provide citizens full opportunity to influence choices affecting the use of shared funds. It requires recipient governments to give assurance to the Secretary of the Treasury that notice and opportunity - 12 for citizen participation in decisions to use funds is provided through a public hearing or by other means. Since most States and communities already have such procedures, this amendment would not place additional burdens on very many recipients. Further, it is broad enough to permit each jurisdiction to utilize procedures which best fit its needs. In summary, Madame Chairman and Members of the Task Force, I have sought to explain how revenue sharing contributes to a vital Federal system, provides a more balanced and effective array of Federal intergovernmental assistance, and successfully responds to pressing governmental and human needs in our States and localities. We hope that you will agree with our assessment and that Congress, for the reasons we have cited, will see fit to extend the program as proposed in H.R. 6558. FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY, WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 1975, 10:00 AM STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE DAVID R. MACDONALD ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY (ENFORCEMENT, OPERATIONS, AND TARIFF AFFAIRS) BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON CRIME OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 1975 Mr. Chairman, it is always a pleasure to appear before this Subcommittee to continue a dialogue that has ranged from the philosophy of statutory enactment as a means of effecting moral change, to the size of ATF's budget. I understand that today's testimony is to be closer to the latter than the former. I do think it appropriate, however, to classify one ambiguity contained in the letter from the Subcommittee inviting me to testify. In your letter, Mr. Chairman, it is stated: "[W]e agreed to examine further your contention at that time that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms in general has been adequately funded in recent years for the fulfillment of its various statutory responsibilities ." Actually, I did not defend ATF' s budget as such. The issue that gave rise to this hearing, as I understand it, arose out of a discussion at my last testimony on July 24, 1975, which went as follows: "Mr. Macdonald. ... I would be interested in going over seriatim those areas in which you feel that ATF has not done a job under the 1968 Gun Control Act with WS-385 - 2its limitations, which we are trying to correct by this proposed legislation. "Mr. Conyers. I think that is a great idea and I accept it. Thus, I look forward to discussing those areas of ATF's operations 1) which reflect a substantial failure to carry out and enforce the Gun Control Act of 1968 as intended by Congress, and 2) as to which corrective measures have not been addressed in the President's Crime Message, delivered to Congress on June 19, 1975, and introduced as H. R. 9022. You were kind enough to supply me with extracts of testimony from several Regional Offices of ATF. These statements, almost to a man, complain about lack of funds. I must say that, although I do not agree with all of the factual conclusions reached by these officials, I would have been disappointed had they not shown their dissatisfaction with their own performance and eagerness to obtain every last dollar they could squeeze out of the budgetary process in order to attempt to do a better job. I think everyone at Treasury and ATF (and I know this is true of Director Davis) realizes that ATF (like any other agency charged with enforcing a criminal statute) must always strive to improve its enforcement of the Gun Control Act of 1968. Analysis of the statements extracted by Subcommittee staff, however, indicate that ATF officials, when they testified before the Subcommittee, made the following points relating to resources 1) ATF has insufficient manpower to make the number of firearms dealer inspections which should be made. This is by far the most common complaint. 2) Limited manpower has forced ATF to concentrate on the more serious violations and persons who pose the most serious threat to public safety in the "significant criminal program." 3) When explosives violations are made a first priority, as in the Western Region, manpower is necessarily diverted from pursuing firearms violations. yc * - 3 4) ATF, at least in the Midwest Region, feels it has insufficient funds for undercover purchase of evidence. 5) ATF can handle only so many gun traces and, therefore, does not advertise its tracer service. 6) ATF, at least in the North Atlantic Region, needs more automobiles. 7) ATF needs a greater computer capability. As to the problem of dealer inspection, the Administration has addressed itself to this problem with legislative recommendations, contained in H. R. 9022, which I outlined in my testimony before the Subcommittee on July 24, 1975. Our proposals are aimed at improving the effectiveness of the Gun Control Act by instituting a number of comprehensive revisions. One such revision will effect a reduction in the number of dealers so that they can be regulated more closely. Then, rather than increase the number of ATF inspections, we propose to reduce the number of dealers to those responsible ^dealers who are actually engaged full-time in the firearms business. Thus, we proposed amending the existing licensing standards by including a provision which would permit the Treasury to inquire into each applicant's business experience, financial standing, and trade connections in order to determine whether the applicant is likely to commence the proposed business within a reasonable period of time and maintain such business in conformity with Federal, State and relevant local law. Secondly, we propose to amend the Act to create special license categories for ammunition dealers, gunsmiths and dealers in long guns only. It is true with ATF, as with every other enforcement agency, that manpower limits cause the agency to concentrate on the most serious violations and violators. The investigative programs of all Federal investigative agencies must be carefully planned to make the best use of limited manpower. Moreover, - 4 this is precisely what the President and Congress intended in connection with the Gun Control Act of 1968. The Johnson Administration originally proposed the legislation that became the Gun Control Act of 1968. In his message, the President explicitly stated that the legislation was not intended to curtail sporting or self-protection firearms, nor was it intended to take the place of action appropriately reserved for State action. Rather, it was intended to assist States by providing better controls over interstate and foreign commerce, leaving the issue of bans, registration, etc., to the states. The Midwest Region feels it has insufficient funds for the undercover purchase of evidence. I am sure you appreciate that every Federal investigative agency which develops criminal cases through the use of this investigative technique would want to make as many cases as possible. Therefore, it is logical for the agency to feel that no matter how much money it has, it could still use more and develop additional prosecutions. However, as you know, there has to be a limit somewhere. This is similar to the amount of funds available to pay informants. The more money you have, the more information you may get but the supply of money can never be limitless. 470 - 5 Providing ATF with additional manpower would not necessarily increase its ability to trace weapons. The limitations attached to ATF's tracing capabilities are due to clerical problems at the manufacturer's level. The manufacturer must make a manual search of his records of the dealer who took delivery from the manufacturer. To improve this process would require manufacturers and all other licensees to forward records to a central location for computerization. Neither Congress nor the Administration has supported such registration to this point. In fact, Mr. Chairman, our guidance from Congress, particularly in annual appropriations hearings, has led us to the measured expansion and reallocation of forces. Analysis of ATFfs manpower applications since 1968 shows a steady and strong emphasis on firearms enforcement. From FY '68 to FY '76, the allocation of agent manpower to firearms enforcement has been shifted from 21% of the total agent manpower available to 77%. In terms of ATF budget requests and Treasury and OMB allowances, there have been some overall reductions over the years, but it is clear that the increases for firearms and explosives enforcement have been substantial, from $1.3 million (approximated) to $71.5 million (approximated) per year during the FY '70 to FY '76 period. More recently, as a percentage of the total ATF budget, firearms and explosives enforcement has increased from about 33% (FY '70) to 63% (FY '76) of the total budget. In a management sense, an agency cannot absorb, train and utilize a huge influx of money or manpower; such expansion should be measured and programmed. As the Regional Director, Mr. Morrissey pointed out at your hearings, his staff could not handle a major increment, in his example, doubling the staff, because there would be no means to adequately train the new agents over a short period of time. Concerning ATF's regulatory efforts, it is true that ATF has not recommended the promulgation of every conceivable regulation which may have been possible under the Gun Control Act of 196 8 in an effort to reduce the number of guns in the hands of United States citizens with a view to reducing violent crime thereby. In evaluating ATF's performance in this regard, we should bear in mind the intent of Congress in enacting the Gun Control Act. Congress was careful to state that: - 6 ". . .it is not the purpose of this title to place any undue or unnecessary Federal restrictions or burdens on law-abiding citizens with respect to the acquisition, possession, or use of firearms appropriate to the purpose of hunting, trapshooting, target shooting, personal protection, or any other lawful activity, and that this title is not intended to discourage or eliminate the private ownership or use of firearms by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes, or provide for the imposition by Federal regulations of any procedures or requirements other than those reasonably necessary to implement and effectuate the provisions of this title." The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms currently does not have general purpose computers of its own. It^ obtains its computer support from outside the Bureau primarily through the use of other Treasury computers. The Bureau accesses the Treasury Enforcement Communications System (TECS), operated by the U. S. Customs Service, through teletype terminals in its headquarters, regional and district offices. The use of this system is limited to specific law enforcement activities including inquiries and response to the TECS data base and use of the TECS network for distribution of messages from ATF headquarters to its agents in the field, for access to the National Crime Information Center (NCIC) of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and to access State and local police offices through the National Law Enforcement Telecommunications System (NLETS). The Bureau uses the Internal Revenue Service's Data Center at Detroit, Michigan for automated payroll/personnel services, for operation of a criminal and regulatory case history information system and for miscellaneous one-time projects. Access to this facility is by mail. The design and development is done by IRS personnel. The Departmental computer in the Office of Computer Science in the Office of the Secretary is being used for the development of regulatory and criminal enforcement systems such as the Firearms License Master File system and the Firearms Trace History System. All the applications on this computer are in the early stages of development and only limited production work has been done to date in the primary form of listing of initial data on the test files. This #9z - 7 computer is accessed through a remote job entry terminal located in the Bureau's headquarters. The Bureau does have a small computer in its laboratory which is dedicated to data reduction and chemical analysis. The Bureau has a limited staff of four (4) professional computer specialists. This staff, in addition to working on new applications, is developing a five-year plan which includes obtaining the Bureau's own computer facility. In the interim, the Bureau plans on continuing its use of the Treasury facilities listed above, the Bureau of the Mint's computer at San Francisco or commercial sources as appropriate. The testimony of the Acting Regional Director in the North Atlantic Region contains remarks about lack of equipment. He stated, "We have got three of our agents riding in one car, riding the bus or subway." At the time he appeared, the North Atlantic Region had 191 vehicles assigned and, by Goodwin's own testimony, 181 agents. Therefore, the ratio of vehicles to agents works out to more than one car per agent, especially since the figure of 181 agents includes supervisors and analysts who, although they are Special Agents, do not need cars to perform their usual daily duties. A shortage of cars cannot, therefore, be a reason for not utilizing manpower in the North Atlantic Region. GSA Guidelines require that Government agencies should retain vehicles until they reach six years of age or are driven 60,000 miles, whichever comes first. The standards established by GSA are guidelines for cost effectiveness and safety. Generally, because of limitations imposed by Congress, agencies are not able to replace automobiles as often as they would like. For example, in Fiscal Year 1976, 494 Secret Service vehicles were eligible for replacement but the Service was only permitted to replace 77, leaving 417 in service which qualified for replacement under GSA standards. In summary, Mr. Chairman, a review of the reports of our House Appropriations Subcommittee would appear to reflect general satisfaction with the funding level of ATF. Both ATF and the Treasury would like to operate on unlimited funds. A balanced view of the situation against the backdrop of the legislative history of the Gun Control Act of 196 8, however, leads us to believe that the Congressionally approved budget limitations set in the years since the passage of that Act, even in hindsight, have shown a reasonable mixture of support for ATF with fiscal restraint. FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 1975, 11:00 A.M. NEW YORK CITY'S FINANCIAL SITUATION Mr. Chairman and Members of this Distinguished Committee: I am here today at the express invitation of the Chairman, who has called upon me to testify about the possible impact of a financial default by New York City. This is an occasion that none of us can welcome. All of us share the hope that a default can be avoided. Personally, I am confident that if the proper steps are taken, default will be avoided. One of the great pleasures in my life was to spend some 20 years working in the financial community in downtown Manhattan. I gained from that experience not only a love for the City but also enormous respect for the wisdom and strength of its people. I sincerely believe that if those great resources are properly marshaled, New York City will emerge from its current difficulties. As your invitation to me recognizes, however, it is also important that we seek to understand what the implications would be if default does occur. I am sure that the Members of this Committee, as well as the American people, want this inquiry to be as honest and objective as possible. This cannot be a time when we delude ourselves with excessive optimism and thus fail to act wisely. By the same token, we should not engage in excessive pessimism. Impassioned statements that a default would have catastrophic consequences for the financial markets as well as the economy — statements which have no foundation in observable facts — can only make the situation worse. This is a time, then, for an honest appraisal, devoid of emotionalism or partisanship. My testimony today is offered in that spirit. /£' 9 l - 2 I have appeared before this Committee many times to discuss economic and financial issues. I have enjoyed our dialogues and I recognize their value in exposing your colleagues in the Congress and the nation as a whole to a wide range of views on the issues which confront us. Our job today is not a pleasant one. This Committee has an obligation to inquire into the major economic matters which face the nation and I have a corresponding obligation to present the Administration's views: responsively, accurately and fairly. And neither of us meets these obligations unless we deal with all sides of the issues: the unlikely as well as the likely, the worst case as well as the best. Moreover, these obligations extend beyond evaluation. To the extent we identify the potential for harm in a default, we must implement measures designed to minimize harm in the event default occurs. Properly designed, such measures should not enhance the possiblity that default will occur. Nor should they reflect a judgment that a default will necessarily occur. They simply involve the Government carrying out one of its most important roles: protecting its citizens. It is for these reasons that we have carefully evaluated the potential impact of default. Because default has two aspects — the objective and the psychological — any evaluation of the impact must involve highly subjective judgments. Absolute certainty is simply not possible. With these considerations in mind, let me outline the substance of my remarks today. First, although the challenges and the task are great, New York City, with the assistance of the State, has both the mechanisms and the resources to avoid default. Second, if default were to occur, the event would be primarily legal in nature: the political and social infrastructure of the City would remain intact. Third, while a default could adversely affect the capital markets, the effect in my judgment would be tolerable and temporary. Fourth, a default would cause little, if any, damage to our financial structure: the banking system would remain intact, no bank customers would lose their deposits, and the system would continue to be able to provide credit to all levels of the economy, including consumers. wr Finally, the costs and risks associated with any program to provide special federal financial assistance to prevent default substantially outweigh the benefits which prevention would provide. The Administration Program At the President's request, I have put together an informal inter-agency task-force, chaired by my Under Secretary Edwin H. Yeo III, to deal with every aspect of a potential default by New York City. The evaluations and the plans outlined in my testimony today are the result of these efforts. We did not, however, feel that it would serve anyone's interests to publicize the activities of this group until this time. Working through this group, and with the cooperation of other agencies of government, we have developed a program designed specifically to minimize harm in the event of a default. Particular aspects of the program are described in detail throughout my testimony, but let me summarize it now. — To complement action by the State Legislature, we have prepared, and will shortly submit to the Congress, legislation amending Chapter 9 of the Federal Bankruptcy Act to facilitate use of the protections of that Act by New York City. In addition, we are also studying the feasibility of a Chapter 11 type reorganization procedure as an alternative mechanism. — We will continue to provide for the flow of Federal assistance payments to New York City. — To protect the banking system and thus assure the continued availability of resources that system provides to consumers, corporations and governments, the FDIC will, in appropriate cases, provide capital to institutions where such action is necessary to maintain solvency. Moreover, as Chairman Burns reported to this Committee earlier this month: "the Federal Reserve will act promptly to relieve liquidity strains on the banking system, whatever the cause of those strains may be." Let me repeat, default can be avoided. But it is our responsibility — to the Congress and to the nation — to design programs for any eventuality. ft Current Status Let us now consider the current efforts of New York City and New York State to prevent a default. On September 9, a special session of the New York State Legislature enacted legislation calling for: — Creation of a State dominated Emergency Financial Control Board to assume plenary control over the City's finances; — Authority to issue $750 million in short term State notes, the proceeds to be used to purchase MAC bonds; — A mandate to State and City employee pension plans to purchase $750 million in MAC bonds (and relief for the State Comptroller with respect to his fiduciary responsibilities regarding these plans); — An increase in MAC's borrowing authority from $3 billion to $5 billion; and, -- Authorization for the City to file a petition in bankruptcy under Chapter 9 of the Federal Bankruptcy Act. Two days later, New York State sold $755 million of short term notes, including $250 million earmarked for the City. MAC is beginning to raise from other sources the $800 million necessary to complete the $2.3 billion package which is required to finance the City through December 1. At the City level, meanwhile, Mayor Beame has appointed a top financial executive to serve as the chief financial officer of New York City and to develop, by mid-October, an expense reduction plan to return the City to a sound fiscal basis. These laudable efforts reflect a renewed sense of dedication to attack the causes of the problems I discussed with Congressman Rosenthal's subcommittee last June. Will these measures work? Can the City do enough between now and December to restore investor confidence? Some have answered in the negative, but I cannot agree. I would be less than candid with this Committee if I suggested the task will be easy. I would be less than candid if I failed to say that more in the way of immediate actions -immediate expense reductions — is required now than would - 5- J/W have been required at some earlier time. But it would be equally untruthful to suggest that the job cannot be done. Appropriate mechanisms are now in place. It is essential that they be used promptly and well. Impact of a Default Necessary Concepts To set the framework for my analysis of the impact of default, it is important to define some relevant terms and concepts. I sense that the dialogue concerning the issue has been hampered by confusion over the meaning and import of certain key words. First, there is "insolvency" which, simply stated, means that a person or a city has current obligations which exceed its available funds. "Default" is a technical legal term describing a debtor's refusal or inability to pay a creditor who has demanded payment. "Bankruptcy" describes a legal proceeding — provided for in the Constitution — under which an insolvent party in default turns over to a court the job of deciding how his financial resources will be apportioned among creditors. In looking at default and bankruptcy, we should also draw a distinction between the options available in the event of a corporate default and those available with respect to a municipal default. If a corporation defaults and is subsequently brought under the jurisdiction of a federal bankruptcy court, one option — albeit often not the most desirable one -- is liquidation: the sale of assets to satisfy the claims of creditors and the subsequent disappearance of the corporation as a continuing entity. Both common sense and Constitutional principles preclude such an option with respect to municipal defaults. In this respect, a default by a state or local government is closely analogous to a default by an individual person. In either case, if a bankruptcy proceeding ensues, resources essential to the maintenance of life in the one case and essential services in the other, are protected from the demands of creditors. It is important to re-emphasize this point: If New York City defaulted, it would continue to exist and to operate. Tax payments, Federal and State assistance payments and other sources of revenue would continue to flow. Schools and hospitals would remain open; police, fire and sanitation services would be provided and paid for. In short, it is essential not to confuse the legal and idiomatic meanings of the term bankruptcy. In common parlance, we may use bankruptcy to define a condition devoid of substance or resources. By that definition, New York has not been, is not now, and will not be bankrupt. If New York City does default, however, to deal with its creditors in an orderly way, a proceeding under the Federal bankruptcy laws is the most appropriate solution. As I have often said, no observer who is asked to predict the impact of a default can do so with absolute certitude. A default — like any major financial reversal — has two aspects: a tangible, objective aspect on the one hand and a psychological aspect on the other. It would be inadequate to limit the analysis to only one of these aspects. And confusing the two would further cloud our evaluation of the impact of default. Indeed, I sense that such confusion is in large part responsible for some of the more extreme predictions which have been made in recent weeks. Moreover, as I cautioned in my letter of last week, it is important to be sensitive to the risk that the evaluation process itself may aggravate reaction to a default. Let us suppose, for example, that leaders of major financial institutions contend that their institutions and the markets in which they function would be devastated by a default. Objective factors notwithstanding, such contentions would measurably enhance the impact of default. Let me turn to a sector-by-sector analysis. Essential Services If New York City defaulted on an obligation to redeem a maturing note issue for cash, a question of immediate importance is whether the City could continue to provide essential services: police and fire protection, sanitation, mass transit, water and sewerage facilities, and the like. We evaluated the outlays required to provide these services against the City's level of receipts. While, as I have indicated on earlier occasions, levels of outlay for these services are extreme in relation to the outlays of other cities, New York City's revenues appear sufficient to provide an adequate level of services in the event of default. - 7 Federal Assistance Programs Another potential concern relates to continuation of the various Federal Assistance programs which benefit the citizens of New York. The Office of Management and Budget and the Domestic Council have completed a survey of the most important of these programs with the objective of identifying the potential consequences on scheduled assistance flows in the event local mechanism temporarily become unavailable. As the Committee knows, certain assistance to the City and its citizens depends upon local matching funds. The great bulk of this assistance is matched by the State of New York. However, under State law, the City is required to provide some share of the State portion. In our view, and under current Federal law, the State is responsible to make the matching payments if the flow of Federal assistance is to continue. Speaking more broadly, programs of assistance to the disadvantaged are fundamental in a compassionate democratic society. But if such programs lose the support of the American people -- if they are perceived as too often providing the wrong benefits to the wrong recipients — our ability to provide any assistance of this nature will be limited. For these reasons, the President has asked Vice President Rockefeller, as Chairman of the Domestic Council, to conduct a thorough re-evaluation of all Federal assistance programs and to develop proposals for reform. While that review is not yet complete, my views are well known. I personally have long favored a simple program of income maintenance as the most efficient approach to our responsibilities in this area. Debt Adjustment The requirement that the City continue to provide and finance essential services underscores the importance of insuring that there is an orderly mechanism for allocating the City's financial resources and effecting a restructuring of the short term debt. Absent such a mechanism, there is the risk of a multitude of lawsuits, each seeking a legal injunction against the payment of City funds to one class of creditor or another. It is for this reason that we have prepared, and will submit shortly to Congress, legislation amending Chapter 9 of the Federal Bankruptcy Act. This legislation is designed to insure that the claims of all legitimate creditors would be dealt with in a single proceeding. It would be complementary to the legislation enacted by the New York State Legislature authorizing New York City, in the event of default, to seek reorganization of its debt under the plenary jurisdiction of a federal court. J 9 - 7a - Specifically, our proposal would modify existing law by eliminating the existing requirement that a city must file a reorganization plan and written assents to the plan from 51% of the creditors before obtaining the protection of a Federal bankruptcy court. Under the revised procedure, Federal protection would be provided upon the filing only of a simple petition by the City. As is the case with respect to other types of reorganizations under our bankruptcy laws, the reorganization plan and the creditors' assent thereto would be developed in the course of the proceeding. In the interim, however, the City would be protected from conflicting claims and injunctions regarding its resources, and could continue to conduct its affairs in an orderly manner. I would point out that this proposal is substantially consistent with the recommendations of the National Commission on the Reform of the Bankruptcy Laws, embodied in S. 235. Financial Markets In assessing the impact of a default on the financial markets, we are dealing in the realm of judgment; as I have said, absolute certainty is simply not possible. My analysis is based on a detailed review of all the factual circumstances, discussions with a wide range of market professionals in the private sector, and my own conclusions, based on more than twenty years of experience in the investment banking business. The impact of a default on markets other than the municipal market is, in the final analysis, closely related to the impact on the overall economy. As I shall discuss more fully in a few moments, it is our judgment that a default would not damage the prospects for the Nation's economic recovery. The public understands that New York City's problems are unique in most important respects. Moreover, over the past six months and in the months to come, the public has had, and will have, ample opportunity to decide whether a default by New York City is merely representative of a more fundamental flaw in our economy. Only if such a conclusion were reached — and there is no objective reason why it should be -- could we expect a serious and lasting adverse impact on these markets. Municipal Bond Market Our conclusions with respect to the municipal bond market are at once more precise and more complex. Over at least the past year, the municipal market has been unsettled due to a variety of complex factors. *?/ - 8 - First, the enormous volume of tax-exempt securities coming to market — more than $51 billion of bond and notes in 1974 and more than $40 billion in the first eight months of this year alone — has not been matched by a corresponding increase in demand for such securities. Second, inflation and now its inevitable handmaiden — the anticipation of future inflation — caused by massive Federal demands on the market has dampened investor interest in committing funds for the long term. Finally, a series of events — the repeal of the Port Authority covenant by the legislatures of New York and New Jersey; the default by UDC, occasioned by the New York State Legislature's initial refusal to carry out its "moral obligation;" and the problems of New York City itself — have all sharpened investor awareness of risk and created an element of doubt about the willingness of public bodies to carry out their financial obligations. To a significant extent, these doubts have already led to some adjustments in the market. In the event of default, we would expect only a temporary period of moderate adjustment. And over a slightly longer time frame, we can see some potentially favorable signs. We understand that numerous intermediaries and investors are currently withholding funds from the municipal market because of the current uncertainties. When the New York City situation is resolved — one way or another — we can expect a substantial return of funds to the market, improving liquidity and lowering borrowing costs. But the implications of default are broader than short range fund flows or price adjustments. Since at least the beginning of this decade, there has been a marked increase in the tendency of investors to restrict themselves to higher-grade instruments — or a "flight to quality" to use the terminology of the market. Inflation and its by-products is the primary cause, but there is little question that major financial reversals — the penn central bankruptcy, for example — have served as important catalysts. Clearly, New York City's situation has caused this trend to accelerate. Issuers whose obligations are viewed as less than prime are paying high rates of interest relative to the general structure of interest rates. Conversely, well-run issuers are benefitting in the form of lower rates. In short, when we move away from this period of uncertainty, underlying credit characteristics — financial soundness — will be the dominant factor in the pricing of all municipal debt. The result will be a better and more efficient municipal bond market. )p At the same time, we cannot ignore the way in which the municipal market has performed even under these seriously unsettled conditions. During August alone, four states and 255 municipalities raised nearly $2.6 billion in long term debt. And contrary to widely held opinion, such funds were raised at a cost not grossly disproportionate to historical levels. Traditionally, there has been a 30% spread between taxexempt and taxable issues of comparable quality. When we hear complaints about the record ratess municipalities are paying for funds, we must keep in mind that conditions in the corporate market are no better. This month, the spread between long term prime municipals and comparable utility issues was squarely on the 30% figure. This is not to suggest that the municipal market has not been impacted by the uncertainty surrounding New York City's condition. But it does place the reaction of the market in a more accurate perspective than some of the rhetoric of recent months. Finally, the disruptions which have occurred in the market place can provide an impetus for some very important reforms. One reason our capital markets are the finest in the world is that, under our laws and procedures, investors are provided with detailed and accurate information concerning potential investments. To the extent investors begin to receive such information from tax-exempt issuers, the market will clearly benefit. New York State and Its Agencies We have taken a particularly careful look at the credits within New York State to determine whether any credit would be able to withstand an increased level of scrutiny. We now believe there is little risk that a default by New York City would directly precipitate a default by New York State or its agencies. Impact on the Banking System As the Committee is aware, the Treasury Department, in conjunction with the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC, has taken a close look at the holdings of New York City securities in our banking system. While significant amounts of New York City's debt is held by commercial banks, we do not believe a default would have a material impact on the banking system. ^ Specifically, our analysis revealed that only an infinitesimal number of the nation's 14,000 commercial banks could face serious capital impairment if New York City defaulted Moreover, all of the nation's larger banks would be secure in the event of default. But as is the case in other areas, we have felt an obligation to develop mechanisms to minimize all risks, however small. Accordingly, with respect to any bank which may be impacted, various mechanisms are now available to insure that none will fail as a result of a decline in the value of their holdings of New York City obligations. Bank customers have no need to fear for their funds. 1. Where possible, bank directors will be required to contribute additional capital. 2. Certain banks may be sold to, or merged with, other banks or bank holding companies. 3. As a last resort, in appropriate cases, the FDIC may provide capital in the form of convertible subordinated debt, at the same time imposing appropriate sanctions on the bank officials directly and indirectly responsible for the bank's exposure. In addition, in recognition of the likelihood that any default could be cured promptly, the bank regulatory agencies have agreed that in the event of default, no bank will be required to write its holdings to market for six months. Overall Economic Impact As I suggested earlier, we cannot conclude that a default by New York City would result in a broad-based decline in consumer or investor confidence or in the adoption of unnecessarily restrictive lending policies by financial institutions. The American people know the reasons New York City is having financial difficulties and they know that there is little, if any, direct relationship between these difficulties and the condition of the national economy. New York City is facing a possible default because for years it has spent far more than it takes in. New York City is facing a possible default because, until recently, it has not shown itself willing to implement the necessary reform measures required to restore confidence and regain access to the capital markets. No change in the national economic picture will measurably improve conditions in New York. And by the same token, no change in New York's condition will materially influence the economy as a whole. U^l - 11 - Federal Financial Assistance The only event which could modify this conclusion would be the provision of Federal financial assistance to avert a default. Indeed, such assistance — be it in the form of a guarantee or a loan, insurance or a grant — would, in my view, cause many problems for the process of recovery. As the chief financial officer of this great country I have a responsibility to all the people, not simply to particular groups or sectors at particular times. My job, in essence, is to protect and restore the eroding fiscal and financial integrity of the United States for the benefit of every citizen. To state my views on special financial assistance for New York City most directly: I would be ignoring this fundamental responsibility if I were to support such assistance. For years, government at all levels has been promising more than it can deliver. This is the cause of New York City's problem and, in my view, it is the cause of our severe problems at the Federal level as well. More and larger deficits and the increased level of Federal borrowing required to finance these deficits have combined to threaten our economic system with fundamental change: No longer can we be confident that our private sector will have access to the capital required if it is to meet the needs of all our citizens. Yet some would have us accelerate these changes to deal with the consequences of fiscal irresponsibility at the local level. Any form of financial assistance would directly increase the burden the Federal Government imposes on the capital markets. Who would suffer? All borrowers, including every other state and local government, would pay higher interest rates. And certain sectors — housing, small and medium-sized companies, for example — could discover that funds were not available at any price. Moreover, we do not escape these problems by making the assistance slightly less direct; by providing a guarantee or insurance for municipal debt. Indeed, such a program would create a security superior to those of the Federal Government itself: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States and exempt from Federal taxes. The impact on any municipal issuer which did not have a guarantee would be direct and severe: The guaranteed bonds would skim the cream of the market and all other issuers would pay higher rates. And what would such a program do to fiscal policies at the local level? Today, the desire to maintain access to credit at the lowest possible rate is the most important incentive for participants fiscal restraint restraint. on with spending the A Federal would creditbe guarantee of lost the United entirely. program States: would This provide critical all - 12 - #?r But, some will ask, why not have the Federal Government impose these restraints as a condition for the guarantee? Thai possibility concerns me more than any other because it would amount to no less than a Federal takeover of the fiscal and financial decision-making process at the State and local level, We would have to create a new bureaucracy, simply to concoct and enforce the guidelines as to local priorities we here in Washington would be imposing on the Governments of the natic We would be confronted with the sorry spectacle of duly-electec local officials lining up outside my door, attempting to persuade me that they were carrying out their responsibilities in a satisfactory fashion. We would, in short, be contravening constitutionally -_ imposed principles of Federalism; principl( which lie at the heart" of the structure of government in this nation. Thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of governments woulc resist this intrusion into local affairs. And they would be absolutely right. But in the final analysis, theirs would be a Hobson's Choice: Submit^to Federal control or pay the price of independence in the bond markets. Are we really prepared t< inflict this choice on the nation? Finally, there are those who say that New York City is a special case; that helping New York will not obligate us to help other cities in the future. But we are already obligated. We are obligated to local officials throughout the country who have risked their careers by insisting on fiscal restraint. Would financing the deficits of New York City be consistent with our obligation to them? And can we really draw the line at New York City? I doubt it. "Assistance to one city would create an intolerableprecedent for the future. Before concluding, I must return once again to an importar point. , As strong as our economy and. our financial system may be, it remains somewhat vulnerable to attacks from within. We in the Administration have done all we can to evaluate tire risks a detault presents and, where possible, to provide mechanisms to minimize those risks. But if I may borrow a thought from Justice Holmes, the most elaborate fire protection system in the world may not protect theatergoers from the man who cries "fire." - 13 - 4% Mr. Chairman, fiscal restraint is not an easy task for any economic unit in our society — a person, a corporation a partnership, a city. I do not want to deviate from the ' subject at hand, but I must point out that even we as a nation" are not immune. Only our printing press allows us a greater opportunity for postponement, while we daily risk mortgaging away the financial health and prosperity of future generations But our economy — however weakened by excesses at the Federal level — remains able to withstand even the most sever shocks. I do not wish a default upon New York City, i do not6 believe it has to default and I expect it to take the measures necessary to avoid such an event. But if it does default the economy of this nation and its financial system will survive with enough strength not only to repair the damage, but also' to start our greatest city along the road to recovery. tdepartmentoftheJREASURY IGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 964-2041 FOR RELEASE A T 8 P.M. A^/ E.D.T. ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE SECRETARY OF THE TO THE ECONOMIC CLUB SEPTEMBER 2 3 , WILLIAM E. SIMON TREASURY OF NEW YORK 1975 I want to thank each of you for your kind invitation to speak here tonight. I have been looking forward to this occasion for some time because I could think of no better forum to discuss a matter of growing concern to many of us in this chamber: the long-term prospects for the nation's financial system. As you know, there is an old adage on Wall Street that "the markets are always telling you something." Our financial markets and institutions are a vital part of our economic system, and as such, they generally reflect the basic health of the economy: if the economy is fundamentally sound and moving ahead w e l l , the financial structure should signal that. If, however, there are underlying imbalances in the economy, the system will also reflect that. The signs given out by the markets on any single day or week may be confusing or contradictory, but if there are pronounced trends over a long period of time, you can ignore them only at your own peril. Litany of Troubles Looking back upon the behavior of our financial system over the past several y e a r s , it is apparent that all is not well. The litany of troubles which have developed should give pause to even the most sanguine observer: * With the economic recovery still in its early stages, interest rates are now at levels which ]0 years ago would have been considered extremely unlikely. * Access to the bond markets today for all practical purposes is limited to only top-rated companies. With few exceptions, a company with less than a prime rating can no longer tap the long-term public debt market as a source of long-term funds. Marginal companies, new growth companies, or even solid companies with less than an A-rating -- and in this broad group may be the Xeroxes and IBMs of tomorrow -- have almost been totally shut out from the long-term sector. S387 * Lenders are increasingly reluctant to make long-term commitments and borrowers too are reluctant to take on very long-term, high cost debt. Many more new securities today are of intermediate duration (7-10 years) rather than 25 or 30 years duration, which was the rule not long ago. - 2- 4ft * Too many companies are dependent now on short-term borrowing for what amounts to long-term expansion needs. * At a time when over half of the securities listed on the New York Stock Exchange are currently selling below book value, the stock market is far from being the source of new equity capital required for long-term needs. * The level of corporate debt has increased significantly over the past decade which together with the sharp rise in average yields has added significantly to interest costs. Debt relative to equity has nearly doubled. As a consequence, some business firms now run a significantly greater risk. For the highly leverage business, even a modest-sized contraction would make it difficult to meet fixed charges and in some instances might lead to bankruptcy because interest commitments are fixed and must be met no matter what the economic circumstances. * The consumer has also an increasingly larger debt burden, which has in some cases reduced his ability to cope with periods of economic slowdown. * Whole industries such as the airlines and utilities are faced with serious financial problems. * Many state and local subdivisions are under increasing financial pressure. * The loan-deposit ratio and the equity base of some commercial banks has deteriorated. * And the thrift institutions, which 10 years ago were paying finders fees just to have the chance to invest in 5-1/2% mortgages, are now worrying about maintaining their deposits* although new home mortgage rates are running close to 10%. I do not mean to cast a pall of gloom over our future economic hopes. The economic recovery that began earlier this year promises to be vigorous and healthy. If we choose our policies wisely, the recovery will also be durable and lasting. Moreover, I think we should be strongly encouraged by how well the financial system has functioned during one of the most difficult periods in modern economic history. That performance reflects not only the basic strengths and resiliency of our financial system but is also a tribute to the remarkable men and women who have become the leaders of our financial community. Many of you in this chamber tonight should be decorated for your wisdom and courage under fire. Nonetheless, the markets are indeed "telling us something" today — they are telling us that the underlying foundations of our economy are not as strong as they should be, that our financial system is more vulnerable than it should be, and that in order. we ought to waste no time in putting our economic house //f/ These are the concerns that are the center of our discussions within the Economic Policy Board of the Administration. We believe that with the process of recovery solidly underway, the time has come to mount a full-scale attack on the underlying causes of our economic malaise. We are advancing a broad-guaged program to achieve that end. But we need your help and the help of many other Americans if we are to succeed. There can be no doubt that the political opposition will be stiff and powerful against many of the measures that must be taken. A surprising number of people are not yet persuaded that the battle against inflation can be won only if we have sound fiscal and monetary policies. They do not yet understand that capital formation means job formation, higher real earnings, lower costs for consumers, and better economic growth. And in some quarters, mention of corporate profits, capitalism, and even free enterprise can bring almost a visceral negative reaction. What then must be done? All of us must obtain a better understanding of the causes of our problems and how they affect our economy. All of us must obtain a clearer understanding of the solutions to these problems. And then we must carry forth a message that is clear and unmistakable. It is my sincere hope that my appearance here tonight will contribute to that process. Origins of the Financial Stress The underlying causes of our economic troubles are many and complex. A complete analysis must await the time and insight of future historians. Nonetheless, it is not too early to identify some of the more obvious reasons for our current difficulties. It is now clear, for instance, that inflation is our most fundamental economic problem, for it was inflation that was the basic cause of the recession and a prolonged resurgence of double-digit inflation would choke off the recovery. Furthermore, inflation has played a major role in weakening our financial structure, raising interest rates and causing a pattern of underinvesting within the economy. Beyond recognizing the importance of inflation, we also have a fairly clear understanding, I would suggest, of the forces lying behind it. Our inflation and its impact on financial markets did not just happen but were the natural and largely predictable result of a series of occurrences which for the most part could have been avoided. - 4First, our Federal government has been living beyond its means for far too long. In fiscal year 1962 the Federal budget exceeded $100 billion for the first time in history. By fiscal year 1971 it exceeded $200 billion. By fiscal year 1975 it exceeded $300 billion and a figure over $400 billion is now certain in FY 1977. Federal government outlays for the past 10 fiscal years grew 175% while total GNP increased about 120% — that is, the growth in government outlays was over 40% greater than that of the economy itself. The growth in spending has also far exceeded the growth in revenues, so that during these same years we have posted a string of budget deficits that are unprecedented in peacetime. And the Federal Government—including the regular departments and agencies as well as the offbudget agencies that have been set up over the years partly to avoid the discipline of the budget process will have been forced to borrow over $350 billion dollars from our private money markets over the decade ending with the current fiscal year. That is over a third of a trillion dollars. Because of our unwillingness to live within our means, we have posted a string'of budget deficits that are unprecedented in peacetime. And the Federal Government -- including the regular departments and agencies as well as the off-budget agencies that have been set up over the years partly to avoid the discipline of the budget process -- will have been forced to borrow over $350 billion dollars from our private money markets over the decade ending with the current fiscal year. That is over a third of a trillion dollars that might otherwise have been used to build new plants and to create new jobs in the private sector. It is no wonder that inflation has accelerated and interest rates have risen to historic levels. When the Federal Government runs a deficit year after year, especially during periods of high economic activity, it becomes a major source of economic and financial instability. The enormous rise in government spending of the 19 60s and 1970s has added enormously to the aggregate demand for goods and services and thus has been directly responsible for the upward pressures on price levels. 6*7/ - 5- Heavy borrowing by the Federal sector associated with the rise in spending has also been an important contributing factor to the persistent rise in interest rates and to the strains that we have seen in the financial markets. With the Treasury Department standing at the head of the credit line with oversized needs, interest rates are naturally driven up, some private needs go unfulfilled and private investment suffers. This is the essence of the "crowding out" problem that could be foreseen several months ago and has now so obviously surfaced, despite the relatively slow pace of business activity. An even worse result of such budgetary practices is that continuing deficits tend to undermine the confidence of the public in the capacity of our government to deal with inflation. Thus, it should be apparent that a prolonged period of irresponsible fiscal policies now lies at the root of many of our economic troubles. A second clear cause of current financial conditions has been an excessive expansion of the money supply over the past decade relative to reasonable price stability. Ultimately this put upward pressure on the rate of inflation and interest rates. A good deal of this monetary growth, I might add, is related to the chronic Federal budget deficits, but another part is attributable to anti-recessionary policies which have often proved to have been late in timing and overly stimulative. Needless to say, this process has contributed to the apparent stop-go nature of the government's economic policies. I do not mean to suggest that a pattern of excessive fiscal and monetary policies is solely to blame for inflation. Higher food and energy prices have obviously had an impact in most recent years. The Federal regulatory system has become a heavy burden, forcing many unnecessary costs upon producers and consumers. Devaluations of the dollar and other actions have also played a role. But I would argue that the underlying causes of the past decade of higher and higher inflation rates are the clearly excessive fiscal and monetary policies that began back in the 1960s. The results of these policies have been clear and disconcerting. Soaring inflation has been the cause of a rapid growth of debt which is endangering the well-being of some consumers, municipalities and financial institutions. In particular, the inflation has significantly raised the dollar cost of physical investment needs. Those higher costs, coupled - 6- Wb with accounting procedures that are unable to adjust to high rates of inflation, have forced companies to seek more and more external financing. Together with a tax structure that is biased against equity financing, this pressure has resulted in an enormous increase in corporate debt to the point where it causing too-heavy corporate balance sheets and increasing^ illiquidity within the companies themselves. In fact there is now evidence of past, underinvesting in productive facilities and where it is questionable whether many corporations will have the ability to finance the record capital needed in the decade ahead. Furthermore, the higher inflation plus the greater volatility in interest rates related mostly to government policies has understandably made lenders more leary about long-term commitments. Higher interest rates are demanded and received to hedge against future inflation and to compensate for sharp, unanticipated changes in yields. Moreover, shorter maturities are routinely requested in order to hedge against the possibility that future rates of inflation might be higher than those anticipated. The combination of the rise in the cost of funds, the hostility in some areas towards corporate profits, and increased uncertainty about future returns has caused corporate treasurers to focus primarily on projects with high returns and reasonably assured payouts, accentuating the pattern of underinvesting. Many projects which would have been undertaken in previous years are now passed over. In recent years, in fact, inflation has led to a pattern of underinvesting which in turn has resulted in much lower gains in worker productivity. From 1948 to 1966 productivity increased by 3.5% per year on average. From 1967 to 1974 the rise has been only 1.7% — less than half the previous rate. By almost every reasonable comparison that can be made between past and recent levels of productivity, the net conclusion is the same: there has been a sharp falloff in the growth of output per manhour over the past decade. This has intensified our inflation problem, has hurt corporate profits, has resulted in lower growth than was necessary, and has greated retarded the increase in worker living standards. It cannot be said often enough that our major source of productivity gains is from more capital and it is only through productivity gains that real living standards can be improved. <99s - 7To some degree, the financing problem that I have been discussing is even adversely affecting the current recovery in business activity. High interest rates are already slowing the flow of savings into thrift institutions and hence the new flow of home mortgage money. Thus inflation has been a basic cause of a long series of unhappy economic events — the pattern of stop-go behavior, rising interest rates, slow real growth, disappointing worker productivity, higher risks of corporate bankruptcies and a body politic calling for some quick cure all that doesn't exist. It should come as no surprise that our financial structure -- still a wonder in terms of the amount of credit it processes and the efficiency with which it allocates fund to different users -- is feeling a serious strain. 4?¥ - 8 The Future Demands on the Financial Structure As you know, a basic economic function of the financial system is, of course, to channel the enormous flow of capital into its most productive uses. It is the transmission mechanism that encourages the accumlation of real physical capital — factories, housing, tools, et cetera. That capital in turn creates new jobs, enables workers to be more productive, generates a higher real living standard, helps us to meet foreign competition, restrains the pace of inflation, promotes a growing economy, and enables us to meet expanding demands from the public. Investment capital thus provides the driving force behind economic growth, and it can work effectively only if our financial markets are working smoothly. To determine whether we will reach our future goals, we must therefore first estimate what our capital investment needs will be and then see whether our system will produce those funds and whether it is also capable of handling the financing flows required for that investment. In my judgement, the answer is that the financial system can rise to this challenge, but only if we chart a new and significantly different course. By every available standard, our future requirements for capital are enormous. The most immediate need for more capital is to create jobs for our rapidly growing labor force. Between now and 1985 the labor force will expand by roughly 15 million persons. In addition, there are at least 3-4 million unemployed persons in the labor force today who must be reemployed. By comparison to the 18-19 million jobs that will thus be needed in the coming decade, our economy created approximately 13 million jobs during the past decade. Recognizing that excess capacity now exists in the economy, the task ahead is still very formidable indeed. In addition to the challenge of creating new jobs, a second broad set of capital needs ahead center around specific public policy objectives: the development of new energy resources to become more self-sufficient; an improvement in the quality of our environment; safer working conditions to protect the well-being of our work force; the provision of more and better quality housing to satisfy the needs of a growing population; and the need to replace old production facilities in order to remain competitive internationally. 4#± - 9 The list could go on and on. Of course, there is no single "correct" dollar total that can be identified with these outlays. But we can be certain that the levels are extraordinary. In the energy field alone, some estimates of capital needs over the coming decade are close to $1 trillion. Together, these two broad categories imply total private investment outlays between $4-4 1/2 trillion over the next decade. By contrast, the cumulative total over the past decade was $1.5 trillion. Thus, you can see that our capital expenditures in the decade ahead will have to be roughly three times as large as those of the past decade. This sounds enormous but it is manageable in view of the growth in the economy ahead. In essence, savings must be increased from a bit over 15% to almost 16% of Gross National Product — a feasible task given proper policy steps. Whether the financial mechanism can handle the huge flow of savings, investment and credit associated with these capital needs is, however, an open question. The rise in corporate debt over the past decade, carrying with it increasing fixed payment obligations, raises nagging questions about the ability to finance future capital outlays. It is just not clear whether the system can indefinitely accommodate a continued rise in debt relative to assets and equity. Indeed, further increases in leverage and repeated declines in coverage ratios will eventually cause credit ratings to deteriorate and interest costs to rise. The system could become quite illiquid with increasing risk even in the face of just a modest recession. If chronic Federal budget deficits continue to drain the savings pool, we will have less investment, lower productivity, higher interest rates, and higher inflation. At the top of the list of those who would be hurt are the traditional thrift institutions and along with them the housing industry. Small banks, insurance companies and other would also soon feel the strain. In my view, as I have said, our ability to meet these capital requirements and the ability of the financial system to accommodate these needs will only be assured if there are pronounced shifts away from past public policies. What we need are government economic policies that are going to allow the financial mechanism to perform its functions and encourage sound, stable growth. A76 - 10 General Policy Needs I would like to offer four concrete suggestions for future policy directions ~ directions to which President Ford and this Administration are committed. First, we must be sure that we have eliminated the stop-go behavior on the part of the government in setting and pursuing economic policies. Such policy changes have typically been a response to short-run developments in the economy, and because there is a lag between the development of a new policy and its impact on the economy, abrupt policy changes tend to come too late to accomplish their original goal. At times, rather than acting to stabilize the economy, such shifts have tended to accentuate the economy's basic cyclical swings and thus become destabilizing. Actions that gain spectular economic results for the near term cannot be the panaceas for our government if they risk moving the economy off the path of sustainable, long-term growth. Good economics is good politics. In pursuing greater stability in our policies, we should also shift away from past practices of relying upon government spending and general tax cuts to stimulate the economy while using tight money to slow it down. This practice has in effect meant that we have stimulated consumption for expansion and retarded investment in order to slow the economy. Over time, such a mix creates an inadvertent but still significant anti-investment bias to government policies which is inappropriate to our long-term capital needs and to the very functioning of our financial structure. At a minimum, the growth in government spending must be brought into closer line with the growth of the economy and we should aim for a surplus budget position at high employment levels in order to reduce the government's drain on the private saving stream. The country cannot afford to have the Treasury use its superior credit rating to deprive private borrowers of needed funds. To do so would frustrate the accumulation of sufficient capital resources relative to our needs and would impose growing pressure on an already weakened financial mechanism. Secondly, we must maintain a consistent effort to reduce the rate of inflation — not just to the 6-8% range but eventually to something much lower. And with that effort, we must also loosen the grip of the inflationary psychology A9? - 11 that is now so strong. Parts of our financial structure as it now exists will not remain viable with sustained high single-digit inflation, let alone a double-digit pace. The key to reducing inflation, as I have said over and over again, is to maintain sound, responsible fiscal and monetary policies. If the Government were to do only that during coming years, it would do far more to help the people of this country than any number of assistance programs can ever dream of accomplishing. Third, we must achieve fundamental reforms in our tax system — reforms that will provide an essential insurance policy against future economic contractions; reforms that will help to redress the imbalances in corporate balance sheets and broaden equity ownership; and reforms that will encourage the levels of savings and capital investment that are so vitally needed for our future. The increasing aversion to risk taking in the lending and investing process must be arrested. Toward those ends, the Administration just over seven weeks ago proposed to the Congress a "Tax Program for Increased National Saving." This proposal would eliminate the double taxation of corporate earnings which results from first taxing corporate incomes and then taxing individuals who receive dividends. I strongly believe that this proposal — which has already been adopted in most of the other major industrialized countries -- would make a significant contribution toward meeting our capital needs of the future. Moreover, it is the only major tax proposal of which I am aware that comes to grips with the growing imbalances between corporate debt and equity. Some critics have attacked this program for its alleged bias toward wealthy investors. They accuse us of favoring a "trickle down" approach which would concentrate benefits among corporations and rich individuals, whose increased wealth would slowly work its way down to the broader base of workers and lowincome groups. Such criticism typically claims that this is socially unfair and that there is so much "leakage" along the way that those at the bottom receive too little too late. If this were in fact an accurate description of either the workings of the U. S. economy or my recommendations for encouraging capital investment, then I would join the critics. In reality, however, the U. S. economy has created the highest standard of living in the world: the average family income approached $13,000 in 1974; the level of poverty has been significantly reduced within our population; jobs have been created - 12 for 86 million people; personal expenditures continue to represent about two-thirds of our GNP; and Federal income maintenance and security outlays have soared to $118 billion a year. This is no small trickle. Indeed, it is clear that the American economic system has provided the most effective "flow through" of benefits of any system ever devised. The critics may engage in as much sloganeering as they want, but they will never refute hard reality. As for our tax recommendations, they are not biased for or against personal consumption. I certainly do not want to see any sharp' reductions in consumption. The strength and durability of the current economic recovery is directly dependent on the pace of consumer spending over the next several quarters. My point is simply this: over the past decade we have had a most unsatisfactory experience in terms of unemployment, inflation, productivity and international competitiveness; if we want to achieve better results over the coming decade, then we must first "tilt" upwards the share of national output committed to capital investment. Only by increasing the share of investment will we successfully create enough jobs and meet our future economic goals. The fourth and final recommendation that I would set forth tonight is the responsibility not just of our Government but of all of us who are concerned with the future of our country. With your help and the help of many others, we can devise the best possible policies to deal with our economy — policies such as the ones that I have just outlined — but those policies will ultimately fail unfless they have the broad-based support of the American people. The opinion polls that all of us see from time to time on public attitudes toward private business only confirm what we know from daily experience: that our business institutions, just like most other institutions within our modern society, do not enjoy the full faith and trust of the American people. If anything, public misunderstandings about profits, capital investment and the like are growing, not receding. Yet I also believe that this period of recession and high inflation provide us with an opportunity to reverse these trends, because people are confused now and they are looking for answers. Who is in a better position to provide those answers than those who are the leaders of our economic and financial communities? Who can explain the free enterprise system more honestly and completely than those who have been successful working within it? And who are these leaders? Many of them are here in this chamber tonight. It is now our responsibility, I would suggest, to go to the American people and lay it all on the line. With the stakes as high as they are today, we have no other choice. - 13 - #?? Conclusion What does all this mean? It seems to me that the financial markets today are most assuredly telling us something about the behavior of our economic and financial system. Something is unquestionably out of balance. Our trouble certainly does not mean that collapse or even crisis is near at hand nor that the financial system cannot play its part in bringing about the huge savings and investment needs of the next decade. But it does mean that we have to change our ways. Inflation must be sharply reduced. Government policies must be redirected toward longer-term time horizon and shifted toward a better mix or fiscal and monetary policies than existed over the past decade. And the tax bias against capital formation must be redressed. If these steps are taken, we can look forward to better growth, more jobs, higher incomes, a closer fulfillment of our broad public policy goals, a lower rate of inflation, a more stable economic system and a robust financial structure. If we fail to act responsibly — through inertia, political differences or just plain misjudgment — then we can look forward to continued trouble. There will be higher inflation, lower growth, frustrated ambitions, and continued erosion of our financial base; ultimately, we could deliver a staggering, if not lethal, blow to our economic and political systems as we have known them. The latter scenario sounds pessimistic, but let us be clear: it is certainly not inevitable. We know fairly well how we got into the current economic situation. It has not resulted simply from external problems such as OPEC pricing policies or disappointing Russian crops, but primarily from many years of shortsighted internal policies. We also know how to get out of the current situation and that is by pursuing sound, prudent policies. In coming months, as the recovery progresses, the improved economic environment may tend to camouflage some of the conditions that I have described. But we should not be lulled into complacency: these are serious, deep-seated problems that will require time to understand and even more time to untangle. Patience, understanding and support will all be demanded from the public. But I have faith that if the American people are told the truth, if they can gain a clear understanding of these complex difficulties and are not fooled by the apologists for more and more government spending, then we will meet our current and future needs. This country has always been at its best when the challenge was greatest. That must be our goal today. When the time comes to turn this country over to our children, let it be said that this generation of Americans, like those of the past, did not flinch in the shadow of a great challenge but instead rose up to meet it squarely. Thank you. 0O0 5^v CONTACT: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE JACK MONGOVEH 964-8191 September 25, 1975 TREASURY ECONOMISTS VIEW INFLATION AS GREATEST RISK TO RECOVERY, ACCORDING TO SEPTEMBER'S TREASURY PAPERS A new round of inflation at this stage of the recovery is the principal risk to a continued economic upswing, senior Treasury economists have written in the September edition of the Department's monthly publication, Treasury Papers. Noting that recent measures of economic activity indicate that the economy has rebounded strongly from the recession, H.I. Liebling, a senior economic adviser, said that "only a resurgence of inflation might deflect its course from a path of sustained and robust growth in the period -ahead." Liebling said the pattern of the 1974-75 recession and the subsequent recovery was similar to other recent economic downturns. "The principal risk," he commented, "would appear to be the impairment of confidence arising out of renewed inflation rates." Sidney L. Jones, Assistant Treasury Secretary for Economic Policy, said in a separate article that because the "immediate pattern of business investment will be largely determined by the strength of personal consumption, it is crucial at this stage of the recovery that a surge of new inflation pressures be avoided." An escalation of prices during the next few months -or of inflationary expectations -- "would quickly disrupt both personal and business spending plans which would, in turn, curtail both the strength and sustainability of the recovery," he declared. - 2Jones said the nation must "guard against fiscal and monetary excesses" and called for increased business capital investment to continue expansion and create productive capacity and jobs. Treasury Secretary William E. Simon in the September issue reported on progress made on monetary reform and aid and development goals, as recorded at the recent meetings in Washington of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He warned against overly stimulative policies that would boost prices, noting that "history is littered with the wreckage of governments that have refused to face up to the ravages of inflation." Other features in the September Treasury Papers include the Secretary's testimony on the Government's Emergency Loan Guarantee Program, involving Lockheed Aircraft Corporation; a report on Treasury's new program to send Federal benefit checks directly to banks, by Fiscal Assistant Secretary David Mosso; a press briefing by Assistant Secretary David R. Macdonald on Treasury's inquiry into auto dumping charges against foreign countries; and a graph contrasting the sharply rising prices charged by the OPEC with prices of the cartel's imports. Treasury Papers is a review of economic policy developments compiled from speeches, testimony, news materials and other statements, and is available upon request at Treasury Papers, Room 2313, Main Treasury, 15th and Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20220. Telephone 964-2041. FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY September 25, 1975 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE EDWIN H. YEO, III, UNDER SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR MONETARY AFFAIRS, BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON DOMESTIC MONETARY POLICY OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, CURRENCY AND HOUSING Thursday, September 25, 1975 Mr. Chairman, I am happy to appear before this Committee to present the Treasury Department's views on the several bills before the Committee which would require the payment of interest on Treasury tax and loan accounts. The Treasury is in complete support of the idea of providing a satisfactory return on Treasury funds deposited in Treasury tax and loan accounts at commercial banks. We strongly believe, however, that the accomplishment of this objective through the authorization of the payment of interest on deposits as proposed in the bills is a less desirable approach than one which would provide the Treasury with authority to invest its temporarily excess checking account balances on a short-term basis. We therefore wish to present to the Committee for its consideration a substitute bill which we believe will fully satisfy the Committee's purpose. The substitute bill being presented to you today is identical to the proposed legislation which Secretary Simon forwarded to the Speaker of the House on May 21, 1975, and WS-388 - 2 - ^3 which, if enacted, would authorize the Treasury to invest tax and loan balances in money market instruments for cash management purposes. Of the bills before the Committee, H.R. 3035 is the most detailed and we will, therefore, compare our proposal with that bill. In our opinion the differences in H.R. 3035 and the proposed substitute bill are simply in the techniques to be followed. I would like, therefore, to first discuss substance and then to compare the techniques which each of the bills proposes. The Treasury Report on a Study of Tax and Loan Accounts, which was sent to the Congress on July 1, 1974, concluded that the implicit costs to the Treasury of maintaining tax and loan accounts had risen substantially beyond the value to the Treasury of applicable services rendered by banks. The report recommended that for purposes of monetary management, the tax and loan system be retained, but that means be developed for (1) employing a portion of the funds in ways that provide adequate returns to the Treasury, and (2) compensating banks, by fees paid from appropriations, for a limited number of services performed. The Treasury has no authority to invest temporarily surplus cash except in time deposits. The 30-day minimum maturity for such deposits has made that course of very limited value. We, -3- sty therefore, explored various alternative ways of recouping earnings on our balances through procedures potentially available under statutory authority of the Federal Reserve Board. Since this has not been productive, it seems essential that additional legislative authority be obtained to make possible the most efficient employment of temporarily surplus Treasury cash. In the interim, we have been able to minimize the difference between the value of tax and loan balances and the value of services provided by the depositaries maintaining such balances. This has been accomplished by a sharp reduction in tax and loan account balances. From October 1, 1974, through August 31, 1975, daily balances in tax and loan accounts have averaged $1.4 billion. In prior years such balances had averaged about $5 billion. While this action of reducing balances has resulted in a reasonable equilibrium between the value of balances and the value of services, it has been accomplished at the expense of seriously complicating the Federal Reserve System's management of bank reserves and other monetary aggregates. We have achieved equilibrium of costs and revenues at the expense of inducing disequilibrium in the money and capital markets, a disequilibrium that has created uncertainty in the market place with consequent higher interest rates and higher Treasury borrowing costs. What - 4 - ftfS- has happened is that the swings in the Treasury's cash balance at the Federal Reserve Banks have forced the Federal Reserve System to drastically increase its open market operations in order to nullify the impact of the swings on bank reserves. This has created confusion in the market as to which Federal Reserve actions are to offset swings in Treasury cash and which are to carry out monetary policy. A more effective solution would be to invest Treasury cash and to pay for services. Surely no one can disagree with the principle of investing surplus cash at an appropriate interest rate and paying appropriate fees for services rendered. The issues are what form the investment takes, what is an appropriate rate of interest, and what are appropriate fees. In general terms, an appropriate interest rate and fee structure would be one that covers all costs of handling the tax and loan account and providing other compensable services, including the cost of capital and other overhead costs. Whatever technique is used and whatever rate of interest is applied, we must provide enough incentive for banks to continue to maintain tax and loan accounts. We believe that the objectives of the Federal Reserve's monetary management and an efficient Treasury collection system will best be accomplished by lending to each depositary maintaining - 5 - S9> a tax and loan account any balances in excess of the Treasury's operating needs. These loans would be secured by a pledge of collateral and would bear interest at rates related to the Treasury's short-term borrowing costs and to the depositary's short-term (day-to-day) investment potential for such funds. In this way, the Treasury would not actually be entering the market as a lender of funds and the impact on money market rates would be essentially neutral. This plan of investment, however, might not at all times or for the full amount of investable funds be the best way of accomplishing the stated goals. We feel that it is desirable, therefore, to provide for other investment authority, that is, authority to invest directly in Treasury and agency securities as stipulated in the Treasury proposed bill. This plan of investment of Treasury cash in earning assets will involve providing additional compensation to depositaries for certain services performed. In the Treasury's area of responsibility, these services involve the maintenance of the tax and loan accounts themselves, acceptance of Federal tax deposits credited to such accounts, and the issuance and redemption of savings bonds. In the handling of tax and loan accounts and related tax deposits, banks will be compensated by means of a credit against interest on the loans or by direct -6- &7 fee payments should the costs incurred by a bank exceed the interest value of the Treasury loan to the bank. Compensation for the issuance and redemption of savings bonds would be accomplished by the payment of fees from appropriated funds and budget requests by the Treasury will, therefore, include additional amounts to cover the payment of such fees. H.R. 3035 gives the Treasury the unique privilege of receiving interest on a demand account — a privilege not available to any other depositor. The Treasury proposal, on the other hand, gives the Treasury a privilege already available to corporate treasurers and treasurers of state or political subdivisions. Regardless of the merits, the payment of interest on demand accounts is a controversial issue, and to ask for an exception for Treasury accounts, where that exception is not needed, would needlessly jeopardize the achievement of the goal of earning a reasonable rate of return on tax and loan balances. There is another difference that exists between the two proposed bills which has a significant effect on the Treasury's return on the investment of its surplus funds. The Treasury proposal, in essence, provides for secured Federal fund loans to banks, a type of loan that is not subject to reserve requirements. The maintenance of demand accounts provided for in H.R. 3035 would, of course, subject the balances in those accounts to reserve requirements. The fact that borrowed funds are not subject - 7 - &f to reserve requirements would make the investment income to banks of such borrowings greater than the investment return on an equal amount of balances. Banks could, therefore, afford to pay the Treasury a higher rate of interest on borrowed funds than on deposits. Of course, the Congress could stipulate that the tax and loan account balance be exempt from reserve requirements of the Federal Reserve System. Here again, this would be a special exemption for the Treasury. Furthermore, the elimination of reserves could apply only to member banks since reserves for State'^ion-member banks are subject solely to state law. Since the Treasury proposed-legislation is not specific as to the.technique or to the interest rate, both of which we feel must have the flexibility of being established and maintained administratively, I would like to outline how we propose to proceed if the Treasury bill is enacted. We would adopt a procedure whereby each bank maintaining a tax and loan account would continue the present practice of crediting to the account each day all tax deposits received that day and all proceeds of the sale of savings bonds under current schedules as established by the Federal Reserve Banks. At the close of business each day, each depositary would forward an advice of such credits to the Federal Reserve Bank of its District with the amount of credits being automatically added to an open-ended note payable by the bank to the Treasury. As the Treasury needed cash to fund its accounts at Federal Reserve Banks, we would call for payments on such notes in the same way that we now call on balances in tax and loan accounts. Interest due on the notes would be payable monthly and would be computed by applying a specified rate of interest to the average daily amount of the note. Interest for each month would be credited to the bank's tax and loan account as of a specified date in the following month. Each depositary would be required to pledge collateral for the outstanding balance of its note in the same way that it now pledges collateral for the balance in its tax and loan account. In the Treasury Report on the Study of Tax and Loan Accounts, we expressed an inclination toward the use of Treasury bill rates as a base for establishing the rate of interest to be paid by depositaries on the notes. Upon further study, we are now of the opinion that the rate should also be related to the Federal funds rate since that rate is at this time the best measure of the value of one-day funds to depositaries. We feel strongly, however, that the statute should not specify the rate since swings in money market rates, with, for example, the Federal funds rate moving around the Treasury bill rate, could conceivably - 9- 5?^ make any fixed formula unworkable. Looking back over the past several years, we feel that the Federal funds rate, less about 1%, would have been an appropriate rate for larger banks. For smaller banks, some other measure might have been better since their opportunity to invest on a day-to-day basis is not equal to the larger money center banks. In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, the Treasury objective is to earn a reasonable return on its temporarily surplus cash and to provide fair compensation to depositaries for services rendered the Treasury. I hope that what I have said makes it clear that the technique embodied in the Treasury substitute proposal would best accomplish these objectives. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be happy to respond to any questions. Department of the Treasury Proposed Substitute Bill A BILL To authorize the Treasury to invest for cash management purposes. Be it enacted by the Senate and the House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Secretary of the Treasury is authorized, for cash management purposes, to invest any portion of the Treasury's operating cash for periods up to 90 days in (1) obligations of depositaries maintaining Treasury tax and loan accounts secured by a pledge of collateral acceptable to the Secretary of the Treasury as security for tax and loan accounts, and (2) obligations of the United States and of agencies of the United States. 6~J/^ FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY v STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS AND HUMAN RESOURCES OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS SEPTEMBER 25, 1975, 10:00 A.M. EDT Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to appear here today to testify in support of H.R. 6558, which would renew the General Revenue Sharing program. The Administration believes that revenue sharing has worked exceptionally well in responding to the needs which it was designed to meet. We strongly urge that the program be continued in its broad general outlines, -as President Ford proposed in his message to Congress on Apri^l 25 of this year. Since General Revenue Sharing was enacted in October 1972, it has made available over $20 billion to States and communities throughout the Nation. These funds have done much to strengthen the viability of our Federal system of Government, a system that is predicated upon the shared exercise of powers and responsibilities. A strong working partnership between Federal, State, and local government is necessary if our democracy is to respond effectively to the needs of our citizens. The General Revenue Sharing program has been the foremost of a number of recent initiatives to improve the way in which tne governments in our system can work together to meet these needs more effectively. Revenue sharing combines the efficiency of the Federal revenue raising system with the experience and the accountability that comes from allowing locally elected governments to set priorities for their own States and communities. WS-389 When support was growing for the enactment of the current revenue sharing program, our State and local governments were struggling with inadequate and regressive tax resources to meet the mounting demand for services being placed upon them. While Federal categorical aid programs of various types we~e available, they did not provide a help for many of the problems facing local governments. Federal grants often did not go to support basic services, such as sanitation or fire protection, where help was often needed. At the same time, the then available Federal aid programs had the effect of making recipients adjust their own priorities to areas where grant money was available. An additional burden often present was the need to match the Federal contribution with State and local funds. These characteristics of the aid programs that existed prior to revenue sharing produced a stifling effect on the creativity and accountability of State and local governments. In enacting General Revenue Sharing, Congress wisely concluded that a new type of generalized, "no-strings" federal assistance was needed to get us back on the road to a sounder Federalism. The revenue sharing funds distributed over the three years the program has been in existance have helped States and communities maintain vital public services and stabilize the crushing burdens of taxes -- often real property and sales taxes that fall particularly hard on low income families and the elderly. The flow of shared revenues has increased the capacity of our 50 State governments and of almost 39,000 units of local government to meet many urgent needs. The program is vital to both our large-core cities, faced with acute fiscal probLems, and to smaller communities, which are often not participants in other Federal programs. Improved libraries. better police and fire protection, more extensive emergency health and accident assistance, and more adequate local transportation systems have all resulted from the availability of shared revenues. It appears that something like two-thirds of the money distributed through revenue sharing has been used to support the day-to-day operations of government. This is especially true in the case of hard-pressed center cities. The balance has been devoted to capital projects and the - 3 purchase of equipment, necessary expenditures which can often fall victim to unforeseen budgetary constraints. Mr. Chairman, recognizing the accomplishments of the revenue sharing program and the continuing need of State and local governments for this type of generalized Federal assistance, we believe it imperative that the program be reenacted. Members of this Committee know full well that I am a firm opponent of dramatically increased Federal expenditures because that spending, in my judgement, would only fuel the fires of inflation and in turn might trigger another recession. I also oppose efforts to place additional unnecessary Federal shackles on any unit of our society, including State and local government. One virtue of the General Revenue Sharing program that I am supporting here today is that it represents a continuation of present spending levels -- not a dramatic increase. It is also one of the few major programs enacted in recent years that actually lessens the burden of Federal regulation and permits our citizens and institutions to regain greater control over their own destinies. I wish the same could be said of more Federal programs. Furthermore, I think we should recognize that recipient governments have now built funds from the General Revenue Sharing program into the fabric of their budgets. State and local governments combined now depend upon Federal assistance for well over twenty percent of their resources, and for many jurisdictions General Revenue Sharing represents a large proportion of those funds. About one-quarter of all direct Federal aid to cities, for instance, is now derived from General Revenue Sharing. In view of the current fiscal squeeze that State and local governments are feeling, this is no time to begin pulling the plug on Federal support. If revenue sharing payments were reduced or terminated, the impact on State and local governments would be severe and our efforts to assure economic recovery would be dealt a serious blow. Governments would be forced either to cut back further on services and public employment or to increase taxes and borrowing. Either course of action would defeat the objectives of recent Federal efforts to reduce the tax load and stimulate real economic growth. In fact, it is (/ imperative not only that revenue sharing be continued, but that action to do so be undertaken as quickly as possible. We must do all we can to assure the mayors, the county councils, and the governors of our Nation that they can count on revenue sharing in their future budgetary planning. State and local decision makers are already beginning to chart their 1977 budgets, and they need to know this fall -not next year -- whether the Federal Government will still be willing to help. After carefully reviewing the recommendation of an interagency study group, President Ford requested that Congress renew revenue sharing in its existing general outlines. The President's decision was based upon conclusions about the broad successes and the continuing need for the program which I have just outlined. We believe our recommendation represents a balanced proposal which takes into account the needs of the State and local governments, the needs of the Federal Government, and the concerns expressed in independent evaluations of revenue sharing. I would now like to review some of the important details of our proposal and explain the reasons why we are recommending that certain portions of the current program be continued while others are changed. We are proposing that the new revenue sharing program run for five and three quarter.years. A multi-year appropriation would be made for its full length. It is our view that this approach will offer a considerable measure of stability and certainty to recipient governments, while still allowing for review and adjustment in light of circumstances a few years hence. We rejected two extreme alternatives that others have suggested -- annual appropriations and a permanent trust fund arrangement. To enable multi-year funding, H.R. 6558 would exempt General Revenue Sharing from annual appropriation procedures set out in the Congressional Budget Act. Another provision in our legislation requires that the Secretary of the Treasury submit recommendations to Congress concerning further extension two years before the proposed renewal program expires. - 5This requirement will assure that Congress has an adequate opportunity to again evaluate the program's performance. The Administration considered various amounts and methods of funding for the GRS program. These included (1) fixing the funding level at a portion of adjusted gross income based on Federal tax returns; (2) price-adjusting the appropriation level to reflect the cost of living index; (3) providing for various annual stair-step increments greater than $150 million; and (4) continuing the $150 million stair-step increases set out in the present program. We concluded that the existing funding mechanism offered the most balanced solution to this question. While providing for a moderate expansion of the program, it does not ignore the need to "hold the line" in Federal spending. Tying funding levels to the income tax base or to the CPI as suggested above, would likely have led to much higher program costs. Undoubtedly, Mr. Chairman, the thorniest issue of revenue sharing renewal, both technically and politically, is how funds are to be allocated among recipient jurisdictions. Besides the basic_formulas for the allocation of funds among and within States, several other mechanisms have an extensive impact on the relative sizes of entitlements. The most important of these are the split of funds between State and local governments and the constraints imposed on the intrastate formula. In our review, we looked at a large number of alternative formulas, including those resulting from the Brookings Institution monitoring effort. We have continued to review the additional studies of the allocation formulas, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, as they have become available. We have observed that there is little consensus as to which formula changes would be most constructive. The Administration decided to propose the retention of the existing formulas for distribution of shared funds among and within States. We recognize that the existing formulas &1 are a product of competing philosophical, geographic, and jurisdictional interests. But we have found considerable evidence which indicates that the present formulas are basically equitable in meeting the needs of recipient governments. It would be difficult to design and win political acceptance for an altered national formula which could better respond to varying governmental and fiscal situations across the country. Several NSF-sponsored research efforts have indicated that the existing formulas do respond to need in the manner Congress intended. Other studies evaluating the formula on its own merits have concluded that the distribution pattern among localities does well in reflecting both need and fiscal effort. Findings by the Brookings Institution, ACIR, and the GAO indicate that, in general, greater per capita revenue sharing allocations go to poorer, as compared to richer, States. For example, Brookings indicates that for 1972, governments in Mississippi received $39.90 per capita as compared to $28.05 for California. Brookings and ACIR conclude that hard-pressed center cities derive greater per capita benefits from revenue sharing than do their wealthier suburbs. An ACIR study made the following comparison, using Fiscal Year 1974 data: Los Angeles received $12.56 per capita; Beverly Hills' share came to $4.33. Chicago's entitlement came to $19.89; Winnetka received $3.68 per capita. Cleveland had available to it $18.13 per capita, while Shaker Heights received $2.97. Milwaukee was granted $19.38 per capita under revenue sharing, while Fox Point was awarded $4.55. The contrast noted above is not principally dependent on the fact that the more wealthy suburbs were chosen in the illustrations. The average entitlement for all suburbs of Los Angeles was $6.14 per capita. For Chicago's suburbs generally it was $6.55. For jurisdictions in the suburban Cleveland area it was $6.49. For suburbs of Milwaukee the percapita amount distributed was $6.47. We are asking that the existing manner in which revenue sharing funds are divided between State governments and their political subdivisions remains unchanged* The current two to 57/ - 7 - one split in favor of localities is uncomplicated and is not far out of proportion to the total division of direct government expenditures nation-wide. It also reflects the greater fiscal need and lack of budgetary flexibility often found at the local level of government. To alter the one third-two thirds split would have a disruptive impact on many jurisdictions .and would be politically and conceptually difficult to bring about. Finally, since most States transfer large portions of their financial resources to localities, this issue may be considerably less important than it at first glance seems. While we do not seek changes in the basic allocation formula, our bill would raise the average statewide per capita allocation limit on local entitlements from 145 percent to 175 percent in five steps. This would allow the intrastate formula to allocate fund more freely in line with its own definition of need. Some needy governments, in a number of cases large cities, would benefit from such a change. Since the change would be phased in, other jurisdictions would be protected from serious losses by the annual $150 million increases in the total funding of the program. We found that a further increase in the maximum constraint beyond 175 percent or a reduction below the 20 percent minimum per capita floor on local entitlements would not have the beneficial results for needy urban areas, often predicted. Removal of, or a reduction in, the 20 percent minimum per capita constraint does not free up very much money for redistribution in most States. Raising the 145 percent maximum higher than 175 percent often has little positive impact since most governments are restrained below that level. Additionally, remaval of, or further adjustments to, the limits will often produce very undesirable results. These include sharply reducing entitlements for many jurisdictions in a State, directing excessive funds into resort areas and industrial enclaves and granting a disproportionate increase in funding to one large city in a State at the expense of other sizeable cities. The Administration fully endorses the desire expressed by numerous members of Congress and by various civil rights - 8 groups that the General Revenue Sharing program not serve, in any way, as means by which to avoid the antidiscrimination provisions of Federal statutes. In our review of revenue sharing, we concluded that the strong civil rights provisions of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act are generally adequate to provide these important protections. We felt, however, that the renewal proposal should specifically set forth the remedies available to the Secretary of the Treasury to assure that shared revenues are not used to support discriminatory activity. The proposed renewal statute specifies that where discrimination is found the Secretary of the Treasury will have the option of withholding the entire amount of a recipient's entitlement or of limiting the withholding to those funds directly involved in the discriminatory program. The Secretary is also specifically authorized (1) to terminate the eligibility of the jurisdiction to receive one or more future payments and (2) to require repayment by a jurisdiction of revenue sharing funds expended in a discriminatory program or activity. Two ends would be accomplished by these changes. First, it is arguable that the present statute, through references to Title VT of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, limits withholding and termination to the local program or portion of funding for which there has been a finding of noncompliance. It can also be argued that since Title VI does not authorize repayment, the existing GRS statute would not permit this either. As a result, present revenue sharing regulations, by authorizing both repayment and the withholding of the entire entitlement, might be said to exceed what is permitted under section 122 (b) (2) of the Act. The change proposed would explicitly authorize both actions. Our primary goal here is to eliminate possible confusion and counterproductive litigation. The second end accomplished by the amendments embodied in H.R. 6558, would be the establishment of a more flexible usable tool for enforcement. Such flexibility is needed in the case of revenue sharing, because of the many ways in which funds can be utilized by recipients. - 9 In cases where it is appropriate to withhold only part of a jurisdiction's entitlement, such action lessens the unnecessary harm caused to citizens benefiting from funds not utilized in a discriminatory manner. It should be noted that the Secretary could withhold all shared revenues going to a jurisdiction should there be any doubt about which portion of the entitlement was being used in violation of the Act. This sanction could also be applied where recipients purposely redirect revenue sharing funds in relation to their own revenues in order to avoid compliance. The Treasury Department has been attempting to strengthen the Office of Revenue Sharing's compliance effort, especially in the area of non-discrimination. In addition to relying upon internal resources, we have developed agreements with State audit and human rights agencies and other Federal agencies to achieve as much benefit as possible from their existing compliance programs. The Administration feels that such an approach is reasonable given the broad jurisdictional impact of revenue sharing as well as the underlying philosophy of the program. We are currently involved in making a careful assessment of the compliance operations in order to determine how to further improve them. As to both matters we have carefully considered evaluations made from both within and outside of the Federal government. It is important that the Secretary of the Treasury have the capacity of flexibly applying the other few restrictions and requirements that are critical to the revenue sharing program. Such an approach allows adjustment to varied local situations. We can apply requirements more effectively and reduce unnecessary burdens. To this end, H.R. 6558 grants the Secretary of the Treasury increased discretion to prescribe the form and content of the reports to be made out by recipients before and after the use of shared revenues. This modification should help to provide information that is more useful to local citizens and to the Federal Government. It should also eliminate costly and unnecessary requirements on small governments. It is~not intended to lessen the accountability of jurisdictions receiving substantial entitlements. fa> - 10 Similarly, our proposed legislation permits the Secretary to authorize methods other than publication in a local newspaper to inform citizens of the proposed use of GRS funds. The Secretary would follow such a course of action where newspaper publication costs are excessive in relation to the amount of shared revenues received by a local government, or where better methods for informing the public are available. The Administration would also like to improve the flexibility needed to account for differing local situations in the area of public participation. The President is proposing that a recipient government be required to assure the Secretary of the Treasury that it will provide its citizens with notice and the opportunity to participate in revenue sharing spending decisions. The opportunity for citizen involvement would be provided through a hearing or by other appropriate means prescribed in regulations issued by the Secretary. Since most State and local governments already have such participatory mechanisms in place, this new requirement will not place new burdens on the great bulk of recipients. It has been designed to accommodate the variety of practices which have evolved around the nation because of jurisdictional size, geography, and political history. The expenditure of revenue sharing funds in a fashion which is honest, efficient, and in line with the needs and desires of citizens depends upon the vitality of democracy in our States, counties, cities, and towns. Consequently, we felt that the proposal of an additional requirement for citizen participation was wholly in keeping with the revenue sharing approach to Federal assistance. Congress in 1972 decided to share Federal tax money with general purpose State and local governments because it had confidence that their representative, processes would assure responsible use of these funds. We do not think that this confidence was misplaced. The Administration appreciates the courtesy extended to it by Chairman Fountain, and Congressmen Horton and Wydler in introducing this General Revenue Sharing renewal legislation - 11 - 3^^ at our request. I appreciate the opportunity given me today to set forth the reasoning behind the legislation before you. We think that HR 6558 is a balanced, responsible proposal which, while seeking the renewal of a basically successful program in its broad general outlines, does not overlook opportunities to improve its effectiveness. We urge its early and favorable consideration. Contact Point: L.F. Potts x-2951 September 25, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY ANNOUNCES TENTATIVE DISCONTINUANCE OF ANTIDUMPING INVESTIGATION ON WATER CIRCULATING PUMPS, WET MOTOR TYPE, SUITABLE FOR USE IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL HYDRONIC HEATING SYSTEMS, FROM SWEDEN Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today the tentative discontinuance of an antidumping investigation on water circulating pumps, wet motor type, suitable for use in residential and commercial hydronic heating systems, from Sweden. Notice of this decision will appear in the Federal Register of September 26, 1975. The investigation revealed that the manufacture of this merchandise in Sweden by the sole exporter, Sundstrand Hydraulic A/B, ceased in mid-1974, and that exports of this merchandise from Sweden were terminated in January 1975. Formal assurances were received from Sundstrand International Corporation S.A., a corporation of Switzerland and the parent company of Sundstrand Hydraulic A/B, and from Sundstrand Corporation of Rockford, Illinois. These assurances state that sales to the United States of water circulating pumps manufactured in Sweden have terminated and will not be resumed. Imports of the subject merchandise from Sweden during calendar year 1974 were valued at roughly $1,325,000. oOo J99$/ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 25. 1975 MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESS Attached for immediate release is a letter Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon sent today to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House transmitting proposed legislation on access to income tax returns. Also enclosed is the text of the proposed law and a technical explanation of the legislation. Attachment WS-100 THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY WASHINGTON SEP 2 41975 Dear Mr. Speaker: There is forwarded herewith a draft bill "To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 to restrict the authority for inspection of returns and the disclosure ox information with'respect thereto, and for other purposes. " It would be appreciated if you would lay the proposed legislation before the House of Representatives. This proposal was developed in conjunction with Administration initiatives in the privacy area. The proposal is also being sent to the President of the Senate. Inspection and disclosure of tax returns and tax return information is presently governed by section 6103 of the Internal Revenue Code and by Executive Orders and Treasury Regulations adopted pursuant to the authority provided in that section. This statutory and regulatory apparatus has generally worked very well. The number of complaints or allegations of abuse has been very small, particularly when one considers the immense volume of returns and associated information processed each year by the Internal Revenue Service. Nevertheless, we believe it is important that the American taxpayer know who will have access to information reported on his tax returns and under what circumstances the law makes that information available to others. Therefore, we have completely reexamined the existing rules witji a view to ensuring the maximum confidentiality of tax returns and ^ x return information consistent with effective tax administration and legitimate needs of other federal agencies to obtain tax information for law enforcement and statistical purposes and of states for purposes of their own tax administration. The proposed legislation would establish a general rule that all tax returns and related information are confidential and m a y not be disclosed except as authorized by this legislation. The principal instances in which tax return information would be made available to agencies or persons outside the Internal Revenue Service are described below. Specific statutory authority for access to tax returns by the tax writing committees of Congress would be continued as under present law. Other committees would be permitted access to tax returns only by Congressional resolution substantially in accordance with present procedure. The practice under which a number of committees have obtained tax returns pursuant to Executive Orders would be terminated, and control of Congressional access to tax returns would be placed m the Congress itself. 5^ - 2- The President and specified higher echelon employees of the White House would have access to tax returns and tax return information only upon a request signed by the President personally. This would incorporate into the statutory limitations those restrictions previously imposed by the President in Executive Order 11805 of September 20, 1974. Federal ?,gencis3 seeking access to tax returns or other information concerning a taxpayer from the IRS for law enforcement purposes would have to satisfy n e w statutory criteria which would be both m o r e specific and m o r e restrictive than under present law. The items of information that could be supplied pursuant to a request for a tax check would be strictly limited and would be specified in the statute. The Bureaus of the Census and Economic Analysis in the Department of C o m m e r c e would continue to have full access to tax return data for the purpose of its use of information on tax returns for statistical purposes. The Federal Trade Commission would have access to tax return data to the extent necessary for the preparation of the Quarterly Financial Report. Other agencies, as well as the states and any other person, could contract for special statistical studies to be undertaken by the Internal Revenue Service but would, of course, have to bear the cost of such studies. In recognition that facility or other limitations might m a k e it impractical for Internal Revenue Service personnel to conduct all such special studies that might be requested, provision is m a d e for the Service to contract with other federal agencies or persons (which might include the requesting party) to carry out such studies. Where such contracts are executed, the outside contractor would be fully subject to all of the safeguards, including the criminal penalties for unlawful disclosure, that are provided to ensure m a x i m u m protection of the confidentiality of tax information. In general, the proposed statutory provisions would be more detailed than under present law, under which most restrictions are contained in regulations or Executive Orders. This statute would narrowly restrict the discretionary authority of the Internal Revenue Service to disclose tax information. The Service would, however, be authorized to withhold disclosure on a finding that the administration of the Federal tax laws would be seriously impaired by such disclosure. The draft legislation also contains provisions respecting access to tax returns by states and "oy other persons, procedures that must be followed in requesting tax information and in handling tax information, and record keeping requirements respecting requests for tax information and the disposition of such requests. « t f The draft legislation would provide for the first time a comprehensive set of statutory rules for the use of tax information and would supersede both the existing tax law provisions respecting such use and, to the extent applicable to tax returns, the Privacy Act of 1974. The provisions of the bill are discussed more completely and ia greater detail in the enclosed explanation. The Office of Management and Budget has advised that, from the standpoint of the Administration's program, there is no objection to the presentation of this proposal for the consideration of the Congress, Sincerely ^ William E. Sirndty The Honorable ' Carl Albert Speaker of the House of Representatives Washington, D. C. 20515 Enclosure 9/24/75 PROPOSAL TO AMEND SECTION 6103 AND RELATED CODE SECTIONS HAVING TO DO WITH DISCLOSURES OF FEDERAL TAX RETURNS AND RETURN INFORMATION SM As a general rule, section 6103(a> of the Code presently makes tax returns a matter of: public record but authorizes inspection only upon order of the President and under regulations based upon his Executive orders. Section 6103(b) specifically authorizes disclosure of income tax returns to State and local tax authorities upon request by a State governor for purposes of State or local tax administration. Section 6103(c) authorizes inspection of corporate income tax returns by shareholders owning 1 percent or more of the corporate taxpayer's stock. Section 6103(d) authorizes inspection of returns or return information by the tax writing committees of Congress and by any select committee authorized to inspect returns or return information by Congressional resolution. Section 6103(f) compels the Secretary or his delegate to tell any inquirer whether or not a person has filed an income tax return for a particular year. Finally, section 6103(g) authorizes disclosure of returns and return information to the Department of Labor, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, and the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare for purposes of administering the Employee Retirement Income Security Act and an implementing provision of the Social Security Act. Section 7213(a) imposes criminal penalties on any Federal officer or employee who makes an unlawful disclosure of income tax return information and on any person who unlawfully prints or publishes income tax return information. Section 7213(b) imposes corresponding penalties on officers, employees, or agents of a State or political subdivision of a State who unlawfully disclose such information. The maximum effort has been made under the existing statute and regulations to assure the confidentiality of tax returns and tax return information consistent with effective Federal tax administration and the legitimate needs of other Federal agencies for tax information for law enforcement and statistical purposes and of the States for &9 purposes of their own tax administration. Nevertheless, the existing statutory and regulatory apparatus does not adequately inform the American taxpayer as to who will have access to his tax return and tax return information and for what purposes. Accordingly, the proposed revision of section 6103 reflects a complete reexamination of the present rules and is based on the fundamental principle that tax returns and return information should be held confidential and private except as otherwise clearly provided by statute. The proposed revision specifically recognizes the applicability of the Privacy Act of 1974 to disclosures of tax returns and tax return information of individuals. Privacy Act standards applicable to an individual's right to inspect his own tax return information are incorporated by cross reference, and the monetary penalty for unauthorized disclosures imposed by section 7213 would be raised to correspond to those imposed by the Privacy Act. The proposed revision would, however, modify the Privacy Act's recordkeeping requirements as applied to certain described disclosures of tax information and would specifically exclude the application of the Privacy Act's record-correction provisions and judicial remedies to any administrative or judicial determination of Federal tax liability provided for by subtitle F of the Internal Revenue Code. Set out below is a description of existing law and practice under sections 6103 and 7213 in major areas and an explanation of how this proposal would affect the present situation. 1. Definition of Tax Return and Return Information Existing regulations define "return" to include information returns, schedules, lists, and other written statements which are designed to be a supplement to a return or a part of a return. The term is also defined to include "[o]ther records, reports, information received 9& - 3orally or in writing, factual data, documents, papers, abstracts, memoranda, or other evidence . . . relating to [a return]." Because disclosure standards propenrly applicable to a return itself may, in varying circuimstances, be different from those applicable to Inteirnal Revenue Service files relating to a return and tto information in Service files relating to a taxpayer's ipast, present, or future tax liability, the legislative ptroposal makes a definitional distinction between a tax ireturn and tax return information. The proposed definition of "return!" is not significantly different from the basic definition of "return" in existing regulations. The proposed new definition of "return information," however, is considerably more specific and detailed than the existing supplemental definition of "return" quoted above from existing regulations. The proposed new definition of "return information" is intended to cover information of any kind filed with, or compiled by, the Service which relates to a taxp&ayer's past, present, or future tax liability. The new definition would specifically cover private letter rulings issured pursuant to a request made before a date to be inserted in the proposal and all requests for technical adviceraiadeby Service personnel to the National Office, regardless of when made. Future private ruling letters generally would be confidential only to the extent permitted by the Freedom of Information Act or other Federal legislation. Also protected is tax information furnished to the Secretary or his delegate in connection with tax administration and accepted by him as confidential pursuant to regulations. 2. Federal Tax Law Administration Under existing regulations, tax information are freely available of the Treasury Department whose such access. By the same token, returns and return to officers and employees official duties require tax returns and return &l -4- information are open to Justice Department attorneys and U.S. attorneys where necessary in the performance of official duties relating to Federal tax administration. While the existing rule applicable to Treasury Department officers and employees has been retained, the rule applicable to Justice Department attorneys and U.S. attorneys has been clarified. The use to which tax returns and return information are appropriately put by these attorneys in a tax context is in preparation for tax litigation or in an investigation pointing toward tax litigation. As will be described below, the proposal restricts actual disclosure in an administrative or judicial tax proceeding of a third party's return or return information as to a third party. Accordingly--and logically--access by Justice Department attorneys and U.S. attorneys to returns and return information in preparation for tax litigation should be limited in a similar fashion. These attorneys would have access, of course, to returns of, and return information regarding, a taxpayer who is or may be a party to litigation. In the case of a third party, returns and return information would be made available only if the third party consents or if such returns and return information have or may have a bearing on the outcome of the possible or actual litigation for particular reasons specified by the statute. 3. Federal Non-Tax Law Administration By regulation based upon department or agency may, approval of the Secretary and return information in before that department or an Executive order, any upon request and subject or his delegate, inspect connection with a matter agency. Federal to the tax returns officially This access to tax returns and return information has resulted in extensive disclosure of tax returns and return information for use in a variety of Federal activities. While access to tax returns is undoubtedly useful, and perhaps essential, to the proper functioning of some Federal $£3> -5 departments and agencies, the volume of data and other information obtainable has reached such proportions as to prompt legitimate concern,over the ability to maintain the appropriate degree of confidentiality. Because of the obviously demonstrabOLe need of the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce for returns and return information for research and for statistical purposes, the legislative proposal would make returns and return information available for such purposes upon request by the Secretary of Commerce. No statistical study could be made public, however, if it in any way identified a particular taxpayer or could be so used. Likewise, information taken from corporate income tax returns would be made available to the Federal Trade Commission for purposes of its Quarterly Financial Reporting Program. Like Commerce, however, no information so furnished to the FTC could be made public in a form wrhich identified a particular taxpayer. Because of the close relationship between the collection of Social Security taxes and administration of the Social Security Act by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, the legislative proposal would continue existing HEW access to returns and return information for this purpose; and access would also be extended to the Labor Department and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation for purposes of administering the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. In the case of other Federal departments and agencies, access to returns and return information in something other - than statistical form would be limited to returns and return information which, for particular reasons specified by statute, have or may have a direct bearing upon the outcome of an administrative or judicial proceeding (or investigation leading to such a proceeding) in a matter relating to the enforcement of a Federal statute. Further, such access would be specifically conditioned on a finding by the Secretary or his delegate that the requested information could not 5% "6- reasonably be obtained from another source. Because the actual use of returns and return information in such a proceeding is restricted as described below, the initial access by the Federal department or agency for purposes of preparing for a proceeding is restricted in a similar fashion. This pattern thus corresponds generally to that proposed for disclosure to Justice Department attorneys and U.S. attorneys in tax matters which has just been described. It is further provided that the Secretary or his delegate may withhold requested returns and return information to the extent that he finds that disclosure would seriously impair Federal tax law administration. In the event that such a determination were made or if the Secretary or his delegate determined that the requested information could reasonably be obtained from another source, the proposed statute calls for a consultation on the matter between the head of the requesting Federal department or agency and the Secretary of the Treasury. If, after such consultation, the issue of disclosure has not been resolved, a final determination would be made by the President or his delegate. Because a number of Federal departments and agencies, as well as other persons, may need tax return information in statistical form for various purposes, new section 6108 would authorize the Commissioner to provide statistical studies upon request, provided such statistics did not reveal, directly or indirectly, any taxpayer's identity. Further, a proposed amendment to section 7513 would authorize the Commissioner to contract with any Federal agency, including the requesting agency, to prepare the statistical study if the Internal Revenue Service were unable to do the work itself. 4. State and Local Tax Law Administration Under section 6103(b) of existing law, income tax returns and income tax return information are, upon the written request of a State governor, open to inspection 1by any official, body, or commission lawfully charged with the administration of State tax laws for the purpose of such administration. Further, section 6103(b) authorizes the governor to direct that tax returns and return information be furnished to local taxing authorities for use in administering local tax laws. Tax returns and return information which are supplied to tax officials at, say, a county or city level may not be invariably subject to appropriate safeguards on confidentiality which the Service has the right to expect and a duty to protect. Likewise, political considerations may produce unwarranted interest in tax information at even higher levels for nontax purposes. The legislative proposal would limit access to tax returns and return information to a State body, agency, or commission lawfully charged with State tax law administration and only for purposes of such administration. It is further provided that returns and return information would be available to State tax officials only to the extent that the Secretary or his delegate does not determine that disclosure would seriously impair Federal tax law administration. 5. Judicial and Administrative Tax Proceedings . Under existing regulations, tax returns and return information are available upon request by attorneys of the Justice Department and U.S. attorneys for use in any Federal or State tax litigation if the Federal Government is interested in the result. This broad right of access can result in seriously breaching the confidentiality of tax returns - and return information relating to taxpayers who are not parties to the litigation. This can cotoe about through the introduction in evidence of third party returns and return information where such returns or information may be considered relevant in some way to the outcome of the litigation. For this reason, the legislative proposal imposes strict conditions upon the use of third party returns and - 82tum information in Federal tax litigation where the tiird party does not consent to such use. Essentially, tie proposal would restrict the use of third party returns tid return information to those instances where the return r return information has or may have a direct bearing on tie outcome of the litigation for reasons specified by the roposal, and then only to the extent of such bearing. dditionally, third party returns and return information a) could be used to impeach the testimony of the third arty if he were a witness in the proceeding and (b) could B disclosed to the extent required by the Constitution or, a a criminal proceeding, 18 U.S.C. 3500 or Rule 16 of the ederal Rules of Criminal Procedure. Even if a third arty's return and return information could otherwise be isclosed by application of these rules, other than those pplicable to disclosures pursuant to court order or reaired by the Constitution, they could not be used if the ecretary or his delegate determined that disclosure would eriously impair Federal tax law administration. Once gain, any such determination would be subject to the proedure described above calling for consultation between he Attorney General and the Secretary of the Treasury ith a final determination to be made, if necessary, by tie President or his delegate. It should be noted that the rules applicable to dislosures in actual tax litigation are more strict than tiose applicable to disclosures to Justice Department ttorneys and U.S. attorneys for purposes of preparing Dr such litigation. The proposal would impose standards f direct bearing on the use of third party tax information i tax litigation whereas this requirement of direct bearing 3 not imposed on initial access for purposes of an investiation leading to, or preparation for, tax litigation. The *ason for this difference is that when the Justice Depart*nt represents the interests of the Internal Revenue *rvice in tax litigation, it should not be unduly restricted i developing its case and should properly have reasonable - 9 in-house access to tax information which may be necessary for this purpose. The legislative proposal thus draws a distinction between this in-house access and actual introduction in evidence, and consequent publicity, of tax information, particularly with respect to third parties who are not directly involved in the litigation. 6. Judicial and Administrative Non-Tax Proceedings Here again, present regulations effectively provide that the Department of Justice may, upon request, use third party returns and return information in non-tax litigation where the Federal Government is interested in the result. The necessity for protecting any taxpayer's right to privacy with respect to his tax affairs is even more acute in this area than in that of tax litigation since Federal tax administration is in no way involved in the litigation. Accordingly, the proposal would limit the use of any taxpayer's returns and return information in non-tax judicial and administrative proceedings to a Federal proceeding to which the United States is a party and then only if the taxpayer himself is a party to the proceeding or consents to the use or if the information has or may have a direct bearing upon the outcome of the proceeding because of a transactional relationship between the taxpayer and a party to the proceeding. Disclosure would in all events, however, be conditioned on a finding by the Secretary or his delegate that the same information could not reasonably be obtained from another source. As in tax litigation, a return or return information could - also be used in the litigation under certain circumstances to impeach a witness and to the extent required by the Constitution, 18 U.S.C. 3500, or Rule 16 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure. Once again, the returns and return information could be withheld, siebject to the procedure outlined above, upon a finding by the Secretary or his delegate that Federal tax law administration would be seriously impaired. VI - 10 7. Prospective Jurors and Possible Criminal Activities Under existing regulations, attorneys of the Department >f Justice cannot have access to tax returns for purposes >f examining prospective jurors but are authorized to deterline from the Internal Revenue Service whether or not a prospective juror has been under tax investigation. The tatutory proposal would codify these limited regulatory ules. Any broader access to tax information regarding >rospective jurors would appear to go beyond the limits >f basic taxpayer privacy. In the interest of serving the basic ends of criminal ustice, the proposal would direct the Secretary or his lelegate to notify the Attorney General as to possible r iolations of Federal criminal laws which come to his tttention as the result of his own access to return inforlation. The proposal would also give the Secretary or his lelegate discretionary authority to so notify State or ocal law enforcement agencies of a possible violation >f State criminal laws. 8. Strike Force Participation The proposal would specifically authorize disclosure f certain return information by Treasury Department emloyees who participate jointly with another Federal agency n an enforcement activity relating to Federal criminal aws. This proposal is principally directed to Service articipation with the Department of Justice in the Federal rganized Crime Strike Force program. The statute would nly permit disclosure by participating Service employees o other Federal employees involved in the enforcement rogram of return information received or developed from ources other than the taxpayer himself and then only to he extent required by the investigation. 9. Congressional Committees Section 6103(d) authorizes unlimited disclosure of eturns and return information to the three tax writing - 11 - 5Jf committees of Congress and to any select committee authorized by Congressional resolution to inspect returns and return information. Returns and return information may be furnished to any such committee sitting in executive session. Numerous Congressional committees other than those referred to in section 6103(d) have traditionally sought and obtained returns and return information through specific Executive orders. The legislative proposal would tighten existing law in some respects and broaden it in others. The three tax writing committees of Congress would continue to have access to any tax returns and return information upon request, and this right would be specifically extended to the Chief of Staff of the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation. Any other Congressional committee's access to tax returns and return information, however, would have to be by way of a resolution of the appropriate house of Congress. Further, returns and return information furnished to any Congressional committee would have to be furnished in closed executive session. 10. The President The legislative proposal grants to the President specific authority to see returns and return information pursuant to his personal written request and grants to him the further authority to name an employee or employees of the White House Office to whom such returns and return information are to be furnished. For this purpose, the proposal defines an employee of the White House Office as one who holds a Presidential commission and whose annual rate of basic pay equals or exceeds that prescribed by 5 U.S.C. 5316. No such employee of the White House Office to whom tax information is furnished at the President's request would be permitted to disclose the information to anyone other than the President without the President's written direction. Any Presidential request would have to identify the particular taxpayer whose return was to be inspected, the kind of return involved, and the taxable period covered by the return. These proposed statutory restrictions upon White House access to returns and return information correspond to those reflected in Executive Order 11805 dated September 20, 1974. 11. Persons With a Material Interest Section 6103(c) authorizes the inspection of a corporation's income tax returns by any holder of 17. or more of the corporation's stock. In an attempt to head off possible mischief, the regulations deny this right to a shareholder who acquired his stock interest for that purpose. Income, estate, gift, unemployment, and certain excise tax returns are presently open to the filing taxpayer, the beneficiary of a trust, a trustee in bankruptcy, and a member of a partnership. Income tax returns of a deceased taxpayer are also open to the representative of his estate and, along with estate and gift tax retorns, to certain other persons upon a satisfactory showing of a material interest. The proposal deletes the "17« stockholder" rule of section 6103(c) because the rule encourages inherently improper and severely damaging disclosures and because SEC rules now require much of the information contained in many corporate returns to be made public. The regulatory rules regarding disclosure to persons with a material interest have been largely retained but tightened to prohibit disclosure of tax return information where disclosure would seriously impair Federal tax law administration. Section 6103(c)(6) of the Administration taxpayer privacy proposal introduced in the 93rd Congress as S. 4116 and H.R. 17285 would have provided that a taxpayer's own tax return information would be open to him unless the Secretary or his delegate determined that such disclosure would seriously impair the administration of 5V* - 13 Federal tax laws. Because this "impairment" standard may not be compatible with Privacy Act standards, the present legislative proposal would provide a second standard for disclosure which could override the "impairment" test in an appropriate case. This second standard would compel disclosure of return information, notwithstanding, impairment of Federal tax law administration, where required by 5 USC 552a(d) or any other provision of Federal law. 12. Contractors Under the authority of section 7513, the Secretary or his delegate may contract for the photographic reproduction of tax returns and return information, and disclosure is, of course, authorized for this purpose. At the same time, disclosure must necessarily be made to certain other contractors and their employees who furnish property and services in connection with the general administration of the tax laws by the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service. The legislative proposal deals with this problem under current law by specifically authorizing the disclosure of tax returns and return inforiration to any person to the extent necessary in, or to facilitate, the contractual procurement of property or services by the Treasury Department or the Service for tax administration purposes. At the same time, however, the proposal would amend section 7213 to extend to these persons the criminal penalties provided for unauthorized disclosure. 13. Misstatements of Fact Existing law does not provide clear authority permitting the Secretary or his delegate to disclose return information with respect to a particular taxpayer in order to correct a misstatement of fact published or disclosed with respect to that taxpayer's return or his dealing with the Service. The proposal would permit the Secretary or $w - 14 - his delegate to disclose tax return information, or any other information, with respect to that taxpayer under these circumstances to the extent necessary to correct his public misstatement in the interests of Federal tax administration. 14. Tax Checks Although there is no specific authorizing provision under existing law, tax check information on prospective appointees to, and employees of, the Federal Government is presently being furnished upon request. Occasionally, such information is also furnished to a State Government in connection with a prospective appointee to State office. The legislative proposal restricts tax checks to prospective appointees to the Executive or Judicial branch of the Federal Government, and then only upon written request of the White House, a cabinet officer, or the head of a Federal establishment. The information to be disclosed in a requested tax check is then limited to whether the individual has filed income tax returns for the last 3 years, has failed in the current year or preceding 3 years to pay any tax within 10 days after notice and demand or has been assessed a negligence penalty during this period, has been under any criminal tax investigation and the result of any such investigation, and has been assessed a civil penalty for fraud or negligence. 15. Taxes Imposed by Subtitle E and Chapter 35 Existing law affords no specific statutory protection to returns and return information relating to alcohol, tobacco, and firearms taxes imposed by subtitle E of the Internal Revenue Code. In connection with its own law enforcement programs, the Department of Justice has traditionally had access to such returns and return information. Accordingly, the proposal would grant specific 5?& - 15 statutory access to these returns and return information by a Federal officer or employee whose official duties require such access, provided that the conditions, if any, imposed upon such access by the Privacy /Act have first been met. Pub. Law 93-499 (93rd Cong., 2d Sess.) added section 4424 to the Internal Revenue Code which would prohibit, among other things, the disclosure of returns and return information relating to wagering taxes imposed by chapter 35 except for purposes of enforcing title 26 or to Congressional committees as provided by section 6103(d) of existing law. The proposal incorporates the principle of Pub. Law 93-499 but provides additionally for disclosure to the taxpayer himself or his designee, to certain others who can demonstrate a material interest which would be affected by such information, and to the President or certain employees of the White House Office under the conditions outlined in Paragraph 10 above. To the extent that the proposal governs the disclosure of wagering tax information, section 4424 would be repealed. 16. Waivers of Confidentiality No authority presently exists which would permit the Secretary or his delegate to disclose returns or return information with respect to a taxpayer to someone to whom the taxpayer himself wanted his return or return information disclosed. The legislative proposal would permit disclosure in the discretion of the Secretary or his delegate if requested by the taxpayer involved but then only to the extent - that such disclosure could have otherwise been made directly to the taxpayer himself. 17. Section 6103(f) The required disclosure to any person of information as to whether another taxpayer has filed an income tax return for a particular year is plainly contrary to the r<& - 16 - most basic principle of taxpayer privacy/. For this reason, the proposal would delete present section 6103(f) of the Code. 18. Records of Inspection and Disclosure Pursuant to the authority of section 6103(d) of existing law, the Internal Revenue Service furnishes to the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation a semiannual report of tax returns and tax return information disclosed as provided by section 6103 and the regulations thereunder. The legislative proposal would codify this existing practice and would specifically permit inspection of the Service's records of disclosures by individual taxpayers to the extent required by the Privacy Act. The proposal would, however, effectively modify the Privacy Act by specifically excluding from record-keeping requirements under either section 6103 or the Privacy Act disclosures made under proposed section 6103(f), (h)(1), (h)(2), (h)(3), (h)(4), (h)(5), (i)(l), or (j). Proposed section 6103(f)(1) deals with disclosures within the Treasury Department and should fit the specific exception of 5 USC 552a(c)(l) as an intra-agency disclosure under 5 USC 552a(b)(l). When disclosures are made to the Tax Division of the Department of Justice under proposed section 6103(f)(2), the Tax Division is preparing to represent the interests of the Internal Revenue Service in litigation and is acting as an arm of the Service. When so acting as the Service's attorney, the philosophy of the Privacy Act should permit an exception for keeping records of disclosures made essentially by a client to its attorney. Disclosures under most of the paragraphs of proposed section 6103(h) would either be impossible to keep records of (i.e., section 6103(h)(1)) or are in the nature of public disclosures (i.e. , section 6103(h)(2), (3), (4). and (5)). The same public disclosure idea is present in proposed section 6103(i)(l), and there is some doubt that taxpayer identity information under section 6103(j) is a - 17 - £M record which the Privacy Act was ever intended to cover. This is based on Congressman Moorhead's floor statement that 5 USC 552a(n) "does not ban the release of such [name-and-address] lists where either sale or rental is not involved." 19. Judicial Review The proposal provides that the exclusive remedy for an alleged violation of section 6103 shall be a proceeding under section 7213 or, where applicable, 5 USC 552a(g) or (i), as enacted by the Privacy Act. Judicial review of any determination permitted or provided by statute to disclose or not to disclose a return or return information is thus limited to a proceeding under section 7213 or 5 USC 552a(g) or (i). 20. Penalties for Unauthorized Disclosure Section 7213 makes it unlawful for any Federal or State official or employee to make a disclosure of income tax return information which the Code do>es not authorize and makes it unlawful for any person to print or publish any such information except as authorize-d by the Code. The legislative proposal expands th>e scope of section 7213 in four significant respects. First, section 7213 would apply to unauthorized disclosure of any tax returns or return information. Second, the criminal sanctions are extended to former officials or employees of the Federal or a State Government. Third, the criminal sanctions are extended to private contractors and their officers and employees (or former officers and employees) who make unauthorized disclosures of returns and return information to which they have been given statutory access. Fourth, the maximum monetary penalty for an unauthorized disclosure imposed by section 7213 of existing law would be increased to $5,000 from $1,000 to correspond to the monetary penalty imposed upon an unauthorized disclosure of records under the Privacy Act. ^vr 18 - - 21. Possible Use of Judicial Procedures of Privacy Act to Determine Issues of Federal Tax Liability Subtitle F of the Internal Revenue Code provides comprehensive rules for the administrative and judicial determination of Federal tax liability. These rules provide the taxpayer a choice of three Federal tribunals," i.e.t a Federal district court, the Court of Claims, or the Tax Court, in which to litigate questions of his Federal tax liability. Further, the taxpayer can invoke elaborate rules for attempted resolution of a tax dispute within the Internal Revenue Service, involving administrative appeals at several levels. The Privacy Act authorizes a judicial remedy to compel the requested correction of an individual's "record." See 5 USC 552a(d) and (g) (1) (A). It is believed that it was clearly not the intention of the draftsmen of the Act to thereby provide a new route for administrative and judicial resolution of Federal tax disputes. Nevertheless, to avoid any possibility of confusion or controversy regarding the Act's availability in resolving such disputes, the legislative proposal would add to section 7852 of the Code a new subsection (e), providing that the record-correction machinery of the Privacy Act could not be applied to the determination of any matter to which the provisions of subtitle F apply. 9/24/75 A BILL TO amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 to restrict the authority for inspection of returns and the disclosure of information with respect thereto, and for other purposes. Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, SECTION 1. AMENDMENT OF 1954 CODE. Whenever in this Act an amendment is expressed in terms of an amendment to a section or other provision, the reference is to section or other provision of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. SEC. 2. CONFIDENTIALITY AND DISCLOSURE OF RETUR S AND R E T U R N INFORMATION. Section 6103 (relating to publicity of returns and disclosure of information as to persons lliing income tax returns) is amended to read as follows: "SEC. 6103. CONFIDENTIALITY AND DISCLOSURE OF RETURNS AND R E T U R N INFORMATION. "(a) General Rule. -"(1) Confidentiality and disclosure. --Returns and return in- formation shall be confidential and no person described in section 7213 (a) shall permit inspection of or disclose returns or return information, nor shall a court, administrative body, or other person order such inspection or disclosure, except to such persons and for such purposes as are authorized by this title. -2- "(2) Definitions. --For purposes of this section-n (A) Return.--The term 'return' means any tax or information return or declaration of estimated tax required by, or provided for or permitted under, the provisions of this title filed by, on behalf of, or with respect to any person with the Secretary or his delegate, and any amendment or supplement thereto or claim for refund, mcluding supporting schedules, attachments, or lists which are designed to be supplemental to, or become part of, the return so filed. "(B) Return information. --The term 'return information' means-"(i) any data including a taxpayer's identity, the nature, source, or amount of his income, payments, receipts, deductions, exemptions, credits, assets, liabilities, net worth, tax liability, tax withheld, deficiencies, overassessments, or tax payments, whether the taxpayer's return was, is being, or will be examined or subject to other investigation or processing, or any particular of any data, in whatever form (whether as a report, investigative file, memorandum or other document, including a registration statement described in section 6057) or manner received by, recorded by, prepared by, furnished to, or collected by the Secretary or his delegate with respect to a return as described in subparagraph (A) or with respect to the existence, or possible existence, o^ liability (or the amount thereof) of any person under this title for any tax, penalty, interest, fine, forfeiture, or other imposition, or offense, but, for purposes of clause (i), not including any such data (or particular thereof) included in a document (or request or correspondence for or with respect thereto) described in clause (ii) (v/ithout regard to the date limitation therein) or (iii); "(ii) any letter, advice, or oilier document issued by the Secretary or his delegate pursuant io a rccuech: made therefor on or before , by, or on behalf of, any person other than an officer or employee of .he Department of the Treasury acting in his official ccpaciiy, and any such request., or any correspondence for or with respect to such document or any portion thereof, which is intended to b„- used to determine or affect the application of any rule contained in this title, related law. or trx treatv to the facts z:id circumstance!; of a particular ir an sac lion, arranger.:•• nt, or return tiled or to be filed b\ any person to v bom such document if-, furnished; -4- "(iii) any memorandum, advice, or other document issued by the Secretary or his delegate pursuant to a request by, or on behalf of, any officer or employee of the Department of the Treasury acting in his official capacity, and any such request, or any correspondence for or with respect to such document or any portion thereof, which is intended to be used by him to determine or affect the application of any rule contained in this title, related law, or tax treaty to the facts and circumstances of a particular transaction, arrangement, or return filed or to be filed by any person to whom such document relates or may relate; and "(iv) any other data of the type described in clause (i) which is furnished to the Secretary or his delegate in connection with tax administration and accepted as confidential pursuant to regulations prescribed by the Secretary or his delegate, whether or not such data (or particular thereof) described in clause (i) or such document (or request or correspondence for or with respect thereto) described in clause (ii) or (iii) may be in any manner inspected or disclosed under the provisions of section 6104 or any other provision of this title. - 5- "(C) Tax administration.--The term 'tax administration ' - (i) means the administration, management, conduct, direction, and supervision of the execution and application of the internal revenue laws or related statutes (or equivalent laws, and statutes of a State) and tax conventions to which the United Stales is a party and the development, and formulation of Federal tax policy relating to existing or proposed internal revenue laws, related statutes, and tax treaties, and (ii) includes assessment, collection, enforcement, litigation, publication, and statistical gathering functions under such laws, statutes, or conventions. "(D) State. --The term 'State' means the 50 States, the District, of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, possessions of the United States, and other places under the sovereignty of the United States. "(E) Taxpayer identity. --The term haxpayer identity' mea?ts the name of a person v, it a respect to whom a ^eturti is filed, his mailing address, and his taxpayer identifying number (as described in section G109) or- a combination thereof. "(F) Inspection. --The terms 'inspected' and 'inspection' mean ihc visual examination of a return or return information. $£l -6- "(G) Disclosure. --The term 'disclosure' means the making known to any person in any manner whatever a return or return information. "(H) Employee of the White House Office. --For purposes of this section, the term 'employee of the White House Office' means only an employee of the White House Office who is the holder of a Presidential commission and whose annual rate of basic pay equals or exceeds the annual rate of basic pay prescribed by section 5316 of title 5, United States Code. "(b) Disclosure to State Tax Officials. --Returns and return information, except with respect to taxes imposed by chapter 35 or 53, shall be open to inspection by 'or disclosure to any State agency, body, or commission lawfully charged with tax administration for the purpose of, and only to the extent necessary in, the administration of a specific tax law of such State and shall be used only for such tax administration. The inspection shall be permitted, or the disclosure made, only upon written request of the head of such agency, body, or commission, designating the representatives of such agency, body, or commission to make the inspection or to receive the return or return information on behalf of such agency, body, or commission. However, such return information shall not be disclosed to such agency, body, or commission to the extent that the Secretary or his delegate determines that such disclosure would seriously impair the administration of Federal tax laws. - 7- "(c) Disclosure to Persons Having Material Interest. -(1) The return of a person with respect to whom the return is filed shall, upon written request, be open to inspection by or disclosure to-"(A) in the case of the return of an individual, that individual; "(B) in the case of an income tax return filed jointly, either of the individuals with respect to whom the return is filed; "(C) in the case of the return of a partnership, any person who was a member of such partnership during any part of the period covered by the return; "(D) in the case of the return of a corporation-"(i) any person designed by resolution of its board of directors, or other similar governing body, "(ii) any officer or employee of such corporation upon written request signed by any principal officer and attested by the secretary or other officer, "(iii) if the corporation was an electing small business corporation under subchapter S of chapter 1, any person who was a shareholder 5S2 during any part of the period covered by such return during which an election was in effect, or "(iv) if the corporation has been dissolved, any person authorized by applicable State law to act for the corporation or any person who the Secretary or his delegate finds to have a material interest which will be affected by information contained therein; "(E) in the case of the return of an estate-"(i) the administrator, executor, or trustee of such estate, and "(ii) any heir at law, next of kin, or beneficiary under the will, of the decedent but only if the Secretary or his delegate finds that such heir at law, next of kin, or beneficiary has a material interest which will be affected by information contained therein; and "(F) In the case of the return of a trust-"(Tr*the trustee or trustees, jointly or separately, and "(ii) any beneficiary of such trust but only if the Secretary or his delegate finds that such beneficiary has a material interest which will be affected by information contained therein. - 9- "(2) If an individual described in paragraph (1) is legally incompetent, the applicable return shall be open to inspection by or disclosure to the committee, trustee, or guardian of his estate. "(3) If an individual described in paragraph (1), other than an individual described in subparagraph (E) (i) or (F) (i) of such paragraph, has died, the applicable return may be inspected by or disclosed to-"(A) the administrator, executor, or trustee of his estate; and "(B) any heir at law, next of kin, or beneficiary under the will, of such decedent, or a donee of property, but only if the Secretary or his delegate finds that such heir at law, next of kin, beneficiary, or donee has a material interest which will be affected by information contained therein. "(4) If substantially all of the property of the person with respect to whom the return is filed is in the hands of a trustee in bankruptcy or receiver, such return or returns for prior years of such person shall be open to inspection by or disclosure to such trustee or receiver, but only if the Secretary or his delegate finds that such receiver or trustee has a material interest which will be affected by information contained therein. - 10 - "(5) Any return to which this subsection applies shall also be open to inspection by or disclosure to the attorney in fact, duly authorized in writing, of any of the persons described in paragraph (1), (2), (3), or (4) to inspect the return or receive the information on his behalf, subject to the conditions provided for therein. "(6) Return information with respect to any return shall also be open to disclosure to any person authorized by this subsection to inspect such return -"(A) to the extent that the Secretary or his delegate does not determine that such disclosure would seriously impair the administration of Federal tax laws, or "(B) notwithstanding a determination described in subparagraph (A), to the extent required by section 552a(d) of title 5, United States Code, or any other provision of Federal law. "(d) Disclosure to Committees of Congress. -"(1) Committee on Ways and Means, Committee on Finance, and Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation. --Upon written request from the Chairman of the Committee on Ways and Means of the House of Representatives, the Chairman of the Committee on Finance of the Senate, or the Chairman of the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation, the Secretary or his delegate shall furnish -n- fS4> such committee sitting in closed executive session with any return or return information. (2) Chief of Staff of Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation. --Upon written request from the Chief of Staff of the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation, the Secretary or his delegate shall furnish him with any return or return information. Such Chief of Staff shall have the right to submit any relevant or useful information thus obtained to any committee described in paragraph (1) sitting in closed executive session. "(3) Other committees. --Upon written request from the chairman of a committee of the Senate or House (other than a committee specified in paragraph (1)) specially authorized to inspect returns or return information by a resolution of the Senate or House or, in the case of a joint committee (other than the committee specified in paragraph (1)), by concurrent resolution, the Secretary or his delegate shall furnish such committee sitting in closed executive session with any return or return information which such resolution so authorizes the crmimittee to inspect. "(4) Agents of committees and submission of information to Senate or House. --Any committee described in paragraph (1) or (3) or the Chief of Staff of the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation shall have the right, -12 - 537 acting directly, or by or through such examiners or agents as the Chairman of such committee or such Chief of Staff may designate or appoint in writing, to inspect returns and return information at such time and in such manner as he may determine. Any relevant or useful information obtained by or on behalf of such committee pursuant to the provisions of this subsection may be submitted by the committee to the Senate or the House, or to both the Senate and the House, as the case may be. The Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation may also submit such information to any committee described in paragraph (1) sitting in closed executive session. "(e) Disclosure to President and Certain Other Persons. -Upon written request from the President signed by him personally, the Secretary or his delegate shall furnish to him, or to such employee or employees of the White House Office as the President may designate by name in such request, a return or return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer named in such request. Any such request shall state-(1) the name and address of the taxpayer whose return is to be inspected, "(2) the kind of return or returns which are to be inspected, and (3) the taxable period or periods covered by such return or returns. No such employee of the White House Office shall disclose any return or return information so furnished to him pursuant to the provisions of this subsection to any person other than the President, without the written direction of the President. "(f) Disclosure to Certain Federal Officers and Employees for Purposes of Tax Administration, etc. -"(1) Returns and return information shall, without written request, be open to inspection by or disclosure to officers and employees of the Department of the Treasury whose official duties require such inspection or disclosure. "(2) A return or return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer shall, without written request, be open to inspection by or disclosure to attorneys of the Department of Justice (including United States attorneys) personally and directly engaged in, and solely for their use in, preparation for any proceeding (or investigation which may result in a proceeding) before a Federal grand jury or any Federal or State court in a matter involving tax administration but only-"(A) if the taxpayer is or may be a party to such proceeding; "(B) if the taxpayer consents; or "(C) if such return or return information has or may have a bearng on the outcome of such proceeding because-- "(i) treatment of an item with respect to a person who is or m a y be a party to such proceeding is or may be determined, in whole or in part, by reference to the treatment of an item on such return; "(ii) such return or return information relates or may relate to an issue in the proceeding; or "(iii) the liability of the party under this title for any tax, penalty, interest, fine, forfeiture, or other imposition, or offense, which is or may be the subject of the proceeding is or m a y be determined, in whole or in part, by reference to such return or return information. "(g) Disclosure to Federal Officers and Employees for Purposes of Federal Law Administration (Other Than Tax Laws). -"(1) Upon request in writing by the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary or his delegate shall furnish any return or return information reflected on such return to officers or employees of the Bureau of the Census or the Bureau of Economic Analysis (or successor bureaus or establishments thereof) of the Department of Commerce for the structuring of censuses and the national economic accounts and related statistical activities to be conducted or prepared by such bureau as authorized by^ law, provided that no such officer or employee shall publish or otherwise disclose <T3c - 15 - any return or return information except in statistical form which cannot be associated with, or otherwise identify, directly or indirectly, a particular taxpayer. "(2) Upon request in writing by the Chairman of the Federal Trade Commission, the Secretary or his delegate shall furnish return information reflected on any return of a corporation with respect to the tax imposed by chapter 1 to officers or employees of the Division of Financial Statistics of the Bureau of Economics (or successor divisions, bureaus, or establishments thereof) of such commission for the purpose of, but only to the extent necessary in, administration by such division of economic surveys of corporations as authorized by law, provided that no such officer or employee shall publish or otherwise disclose any such return information to any person (other than officers or employees of the corporation with respect to which such return was filed) except in statistical form which cannot be associated with, or otherwise identify, a particular taxpayer. "(3) A return or return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer shall, upon request, be open to officers or employees of a department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government personally and directly engaged in, and solely for their use in, preparation for any administrative or judicial proceeding (or investigation which may result in such a proceeding) pertaining to the enforcement of a specifically designated Federal -16 - statute (not involving tax administration) to which the United States (or a department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government) is or may be a party before any Federal grand jury, court, department, agency, or other executive establishment to the extent the Secretary or his delegate determines that such information cannot reasonably be obtained from any other source but only-"(A) if the taxpayer is or may be a party to such proceeding; "(B) if the taxpayer consents; or "(C) if such return or return information has or may have a direct bearing on the outcome of such proceeding because-"(i) there was or may have been a transactional relationship between a person who is or may be a party to the proceeding and the taxpayer, "(ii) such person is or may be a successor in interest of the taxpayer, or (iii) such return or return information will or may corroborate or contradict other information obtained in such proceeding or investigation. The inspection or disclosure shall be permitted only upon written » * • request setting forth the reasons for such request, the authority - 17 - r<^ under which the proceeding or investigation is being conducted, and the particular subparagraph of this paragraph upon which the request is based and signed by the head of such department, agency, or establishment or, in the case of the Department of Justice, signed by the Attorney General, Deputy Attorney General, or an Assistant Attorney General, or by the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. However, such return or return information shall not be disclosed to the extent that the Secretary or his delegate determines that such disclosure would seriously impair the administration of Federal tax laws. In the event that the Secretarj^ or his delegate makes such a determination or determines that the requested information can reasonably be obtained from another source, the Secretary shall consult with the head of the requesting department, agency, or establishment, or, in the case of a request by the Department of Justice, with the Attorney General. If, after such consultation, the issue has not been resolved, a final determination shall be made by the President or his delegate. "(4) An officer or employee of the Department of the Treasury participating with officers or employees of another department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government in a joint investigation pertaining to the enforcement of Federal criminal laws may, to the extent required by such investigation, disclose to such other officers ^3 . 18 - or employees return information with respect to a tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer other than return information furnished to the Secretary or his delegate by such taxpayer. "(h) Disclosure of Certain Returns and Return Information for Tax Administration Purposes. -"(1) Disclosure by internal revenue officials and employees for investigative purposes. --An internal revenue official or employee m a y , in connection with his official duties with respect to a tax imposed by this title, disclose return information to the extent that such disclosure is necessary in arriving at a correct determination of tax, liability for tax, or the amount to be collected, or otherwise in the enforcement of any provision of this title. "(2) Disclosure of accepted offers-in-compromise. --Return information shall be disclosed to m e m b e r s of the general public to the extent necessary to permit inspection of any accepted offer-in-compromise under section 7122, relative to the liability for a tax imposed by this title. "(3) Disclosure of amount of outstanding lien. --If a notice of lien has been filed pursuant to section 6323 (f) or corresponding provision of prior internal revenue laws, the amount of the outstanding obligation secured b}' such lien is authorized to be - 19 - disclosed as a matter of public record and may be disclosed to any person who furnishes satisfactory written evidence that he has a right in the property subject to such lien or intends to obtain a right in such property. "(4) Disclosure in judicial and administrative tax proceedings. --A return or return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer may be disclosed in a Federal or State judicial or administrative proceeding pertaining to tax administration before any Federal or State grand jury, court, department, or executive establishment, but only-"(A) if the taxpayer is a party to such proceeding; (B) if the taxpayer consents; "(C) if such return or return information has or m a y have a direct bearing on the outcome of such proceeding because-"(i) treatment of an item with respect to a party to the proceeding is or may be determined, in whole or in part, by reference to the treatment of an item on such return, "(ii) such return or return information relates or may relate to a transaction at issue in the proceeding, or - 20 - r "(iii) the liability of the party under this title for any tax, penalty, interest, fine, forfeiture, or other imposition, or offense which is the subject of the proceeding is or m a y be determined by reference to such return or return information; "(D) to the extent necessary to impeach the testim o n y of the taxpayer if the taxpayer is a witness in the proceeding; "(E) to the extent required by order of a court pursuant to section 3500 of title 18, United States Code, or rule 16 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, such court being authorized in the issuance of such order to give due consideration to Congressional policy favoring the confidentiality of returns and return information as set forth in this title; or "(F) to the extent required by the Constitution of the United States. However, such return or return information shall not be disclosed as provided in subparagraph (A), (B), (C), or (D) to the extent that the Secretary or his delegate determines that such disclosure would seriously impair the administration of Federal tax laws. In the event that the Secretary or his delegate m a k e s such a determination with respect to disclosure - 21 - in a judicial proceeding to which the United States is a party, the Secretary shall consult with the Attorney General. If, after such consultation, the issue has not been resolved, a final determination shall be made by the President or his delegate. (5) Disclosure of return information to correct misstatements of fact. --The Secretary or his delegate may, in his discretion, disclose such return information or any other information with respect to any specific taxpayer as he considers advisable for purposes of tax administration, and to the extent necessary, to correct a misstatement of fact published or disclosed with respect to such taxpayer's return or his dealing with the Internal Revenue Service. "(6) Disclosure to competent authority under income tax convention. --A return or return information may be disclosed to a competent authority of a foreign government which has an income tax convention with the United States but only to the extent provided in, and subject to the terms and conditions of, such convention. (7) Federal and State agencies regulating tax return preparers. --The Secretary or his delegate m a y disclose to any Federal or State agency, body, or commission charged under the laws of the United States or any State or political subdivision of a State with licensing, registration, or regulation of tax return preparers (as defined in section 7701(a)(36)) "(A) taxpayer identity information with respect to any such tax return preparer, and "(B) the fact of imposition on the tax return preparer of any penalty provided by section 7216. "(i) Disclosure of Returns and Return Information for Purposes Other Than Tax Administration. -"(1) Disclosure in nontax judicial and administrative proceedings. --A return or return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer may be disclosed in a judicial or administrative proceeding pertaining to a specifically designated Federal statute (not involving tax administration) to which the United States (or a department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government) is a party before any Federal grand jury, court, department, agency, or executive establishment to the extent the Secretary or his delegate determines that such information cannot reasonably be obtained from any other source but only-"(A) if the taxpayer is a party to such proceeding; "(B) if the taxpayer consents; 37. *f - 23 - "(C) if such return or return information has or may have a direct bearing on the outcome'of such proceeding because -"(i) there was a transactional relationship between a party to the proceeding and the taxpayer, or "(ii) such party is a successor in interest of the taxpayer; "(D) to the extent necessary to impeach the testimony of the taxpayer if the taxpayer is a witness in the proceeding; "(E) to the extent required by order of a court pursuant to section 3500 of title 18, United States Code, or rule 16 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, such court being authorized in the issuance of such order to give due consideration to Congressional policy favoring the confidentiality of returns and return information as set forth in this title; or "(F) loathe extent required by the Constitution of the United States. However, such return or return information shall not be disclosed as provided in subparagraph (A), (B), (C), or (D) to the extent that the Secretary or his delegate determines that such - 24 - disclosure would seriously impair the administration of Federal tax laws. In the event that the Secretary or his delegate makes such, a determination or determines that the information can reasonably be obtained from another source, the Secretary shall consult with the Attorney General if the United States is a party to the proceeding or the Department of Justice represents a department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government which is a party to the proceeding, or with the head of such department, agency, or establishment if the Department of Justice does not so represent the department, agency, or establishment. If, after such consultation, the issue has not been resolved, a final determination shall be made by the President or his delegate. "(2) Disclosure of certain returns and return information to Social Security Administration and Railroad Retirement Board. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to disclose returns and return information-"(A) with respect to taxes imposed by chapters 2, 21, and 24, to the Social Security Administration for purposes of its administration of the Social Security Act; - 24A - "(B) with respect to a plan to which part I of subchapter D of chapter 1 applies, to the Social Security Administration for purposes of carrying out its responsibility under section 1131 of the Social Security Act; and "(C) with respect to taxes imposed by chapter 22, to the Railroad Retirement Board for purposes of its administration of the Railroad Retirement Act. "(3) Disclosure of returns and return information to the Department of Labor and Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to furnish returns and return information to the proper officers and employees of the Department of Labor and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation for purposes of the administration of titles I and IV of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. "(4) Disclosure of return information as to Presidential appointees and certain other Federal Government appointees. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to disclose to a duly authorized representative of the Executive Office of the 59/ - 25 - President, or to the head of any department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government, upon written request of such representative or head, or to the Federal Bureau of Investigation on behalf of such representative or head, return information with respect to an individual who is designated as being under consideration for appointment to a position in the executive or judicial branch of the Federal Government. Such return information shall be limited to whether such an individual-"(A) has filed returns with respect to the taxes imposed under chapter 1 for not more than the immediately preceding 3 years; "(B) has failed to pay any tax within 10 days after notice and demand, or has been assessed any penalty under this title for negligence, in the current year or immediately preceding 3 years; "(C) has been or is under investigation of possible criminal offenses under the internal revenue laws and the result of any st.ch i... •.. s .:._„.ion; and "(D) has been assessed any penalty under this title for fraud. ^ . 2 6 - The official to whom such return information is disclosed is authorized to disclose such information to his superior officers. "(5) Disclosure of returns and return information to Privacy Protection Study Committee. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized, upon written request, to disclose returns and return information to the Privacy Protection Study Commission, or to such members, officers, or employees of such commission as may be named in such written request, to the extent, and for such purposes as may be, provided by Sec. 5 of the Privacy Act of 1974. "(j) Disclosure of Taxpayer Identity Information. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized, upon written request, to disclose taxpayer identity information to-"(1) any Federal agency for purposes of assisting such agency in locating a person with respect to whom a return has been filed; "(2) any agency, body, or commission described in subsection (b) for purposes of assisting such agency, body, or commission in locating a person with respect to whom such a return has been filed or communicating with such person to advise him that he may be entitled S73 - 27 - to a refund, or to assist such agency, body, or commission in its administration of the tax laws of such State; "(3) the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, or appropriate State and local welfare agencies reporting to such Department, for purposes of assisting Federal, State, and local welfare agencies in locating an individual described in section 610 of title 42, United States Code, with respect to whom a return has been filed; and "(4) the press and other media for purposes of notifying persons entitled to tax refunds when the Secretary or his delegate, after reasonable effort and lapse of time, has been unable to locate such persons. "(k) Disclosure of Returns and Return Information to Designee of Taxpayer. --The Secretary or his delegate may, subject to such requirements and conditions as may be prescribed by regulations, disclose the return of any taxpayer, or return information with respect to such taxpayer, to such person or persons as such taxpayer may designate in a written request or consent for or to such disclosure, or to any other person at the taxpayer's request to the extent necessary to comply with a request for information or assistance made by the taxpayer to such other person. However, return information shall be disclosed to such person or persons 51H only to the extent that such return information would otherwise be disclosable directly to the taxpayer as provided by subsection (c) (6). "(1) Certain Other Persons. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to disclose returns and return information to any person, including any person described in section 7513 (a), to the extent necessary in connection with contractual procurement of services or property for purposes of tax administration. "(m) Disclosure of Return Information Concerning Prospective Jurors and Possible Criminal Activities. -"(1) Prospective Jurors. --Return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer shall be disclosed to an attorney of the Department of Justice (including a United States attorney) in connection with a judicial proceeding described in subsection (h)(4) or (i)(l) to the extent necessary to answer an inquiry by such attorney as to whether a prospective juror has, or has not, been investigated by the Secretary or his delegate. "(2) Possible Criminal Activities.-(A) Return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer shall, if such return inform;:'-'on < ::ttes :o the attention of the Secretary or his delegate, be disclosed by the Secretary or his delegate to the Attorney General or his delegate to the extent - 29 - necessary to apprise the Attorney General or his delegate of activities which may constitute, or may have constituted, a violation of Federal criminal laws. "(B) Return information with respect to any tax imposed by this title upon a taxpayer may, if such return information comes to the attention of the Secretary or his delegate, be disclosed, in the discretion of the Secretary or his delegate, to an officer of any department, agency, body, or commission of a State (or political subdivision of a State) charged with the enforcement of criminal laws of such State to the extent necessary to apprise such officer of activities which may constitute, or may have constituted, a violation of such criminal laws. "(n) Disclosure of Returns and Return Information with Respect to Certain Taxes. -"(1) Taxes Imposed by Subtitle E. --Returns and return information with respect to taxes imposed by subtitle E of this title (relating to taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and firearms) shall be open to inspection by or disclosure to officers and employees of a department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government whose official duties require such inspection or disclosure, provided that s-vr $1^ - 30 - the conditions, if any, imposed upon such inspection or disclosure by section 552a(b) of title 5, United States Code, have first been met. "(2) Taxes Imposed by Chapter 35. --Returns and return information with respect to taxes imposed by chapter 35 (relating to taxes on wagering) shall, notwithstanding any other provision of this section, be open to inspection by or disclosure to only such person or persons and for such purpose or purposes as are authorized by subsection (c), (d), (e), (f), (h), or (k). "(o) Remedy for Unauthorized Disclosure. The exclusive remedy for an alleged violation of this section shall be a proceeding under section 7213 or, if applicable, section 552a(g) or (i) of title 5, United States Code, and no court shall have jurisdiction to review a determination that a return or return information is or is not open to inspection or disclosure or to determine the lawfulnes of any such inspection or disclosure except in such a proceeding. "(p) Procedures.-"0 ) Manner, time, and place of inspections.--Request for inspection and the disclosure of a return or return information shall be made in such manner and at such time and place as shall be prescribed by the Secretary or his delegate. - 31 - Tv? "(2) (A) Reproduction of returns. --A reproduction or certified reproduction of a return shall, upon written request, be furnished to any person to whom disclosure of such return is authorized or who is authorized to inspect the return. A reasonable fee may be prescribed for furnishing such reproduction. "(B) Disclosure of return information. --Return information disclosed to any person under the provisions of this subchapter may be provided in the form of written documents, reproductions of such documents, films or photoimpressions, or electronically-produced tapes, disks, or records, or b}^ any other mode or means • which, in the opinion of the Secretar}' or his delegate, are necessary or appropriate. A reasonable fee may be prescribed for disclosing such return information. "(C) Use of reproductions. ---Any reproduction of any return, document, or other matter made in accordance with this paragraph shall have the same legal status as the original; and any such reproduction shall, if properly authenticated, be admissible in evidence in any judicial or administrative proceeding as if it were the original, whether or not the original is in existence. "(3) Records of inspection and disclosure. --Except as otherwise provided by this paragraph, the Secretary or his - 32 - delegate shall maintain a record or accounting of all requests for inspection or disclosure of returns and return information, and of returns and return information inspected or disclosed, under this section. Notwithstanding the provisions of section 552a(c) of title 5, United States Code, the Secretary or his delegate shall not be required to maintain a record or accounting of requests for inspection or disclosure of returns and return information, or of returns and return information inspected or disclosed, under the authority of subsection (f), (h)(1), (h)(2), (h)(3), (h)(4), (h)(5), (i)(l), or (j). The record or accounting required to be maintained as provided by this paragraph shall be available for examination by the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation or the Chief of Staff of such Joint Committee. The Secretary or his delegate shall, at the request of such Chief of Staff, furnish to him a summary of such record or accounting at such time or times and in such form and containing such information as the Chief of Staff may designate in such a request. Such record or accounting shall also be available for examination by such person or persons as may be, but only to the extent, authorized to make such examination pursuant to the provisions of section 552a(c)(3) of title 5, United States Code. - 33 - "(4) Safeguards. --Any department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government described in subsection (f) (2) or (g), the commission described in subsection (i) (5), or any agency, body, or commission described in subsection (b) shall, as a condition for receiving returns or return information-"(A) establish and maintain a secure area or place in which such returns or return information shall be stored; "(B) restrict access to the returns or return information only to those persons whose duties or responsibilities require access and to whom disclosure may be made under the provisions of this title, "(C) provide such other safeguards as are necessary or appropriate to protect the confidentiality of the returns or return information; and "(D) when the returns or the return information provided by the Secretary or his delegate in the form of written documents, reproductions of such documents, films or photoimpressions, or electronically-produced tapes, disks or records has served its purpose-- - 34 - "(i) in the case of an agency, body, or commission described in subsection (b), return to the Secretary or his delegate such returns or return information (along with any copies made therefrom) or furnish a written report to the Secretary or his delegate that the returns or return information has been destroyed or otherwise made undisclosable in an}7 manner whatever; and "(ii) in the case of a department, agency, or establishment described in subsection (f) (2) or (g), or the commission described in subsection (i) (5), either-"(a) return to the Secretary or his delegate such returns or return information (along with any copies made therefrom), '(b) otherwise make such returns or return information undisclosable in any manner whatever, or - 35 - Sf/ "(c) to the extent not so returned or made undisclosable, ensure that the conditions of subparagraphs (A), (B), and (C) of this paragraph continue to be met with respect to such returns or return information, except that the conditions of subparagraphs (A), (B), (C), and (D) shall cease to apply with respect to any return or return information if, and to the extent that, such return or return information is disclosed in the course, or made a part of the record, of any judicial or administrative proceeding described in subsection (h)(4) or (i)(l). "(5) Regulations. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to prescribe such regulations as are necessary to carry out the provisions of this section. " SEC. 3. STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS AND STUDIES Section 6108 (relating to publication of statistics of income) is amended to read as follows: "SEC. 6108. STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS AND STUDIES "(a) Publication or Other Disclosure of Statistics of Income. -- The Secretary or his delegate shall prepare and publish annually, and may in his discretion publish or otherwise disclose at any time, sta- tistics reasonably available with respect to the operations of the in ternal revenue laws, including classifications of taxpayers and of income, the amounts claimed or allowed as deductions, exemptions, and credits, and any other facts deemed pertinent and valuable. "(b) Special Statistical Studies. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized, upon written request by any person or persons, to make special statistical studies and compilations of return information (as defined in section 6103 (a) (2) (B)) and to furnish to such person or persons any data obtained from such special statistical studies and compilations in statistical form. The cost of performing such special statistical studies and compilations shall be paid by such person or persons. "(c) Other Publications. --The Secretary or his delegate may prepare and publish such official rulings, procedures, and similar information of the Internal Revenue Service as he, in his discretion, considers necessary to promote uniform application of the tax laws. "(d) Taxpayer Identity. --No publication or other disclosure of statistics or other information required or authorized by subsection (a), special statistical study authorized by subsection (b), or information authorized by subsection (c) shall in any manner permit the statistics, study, or any information so published, furnished, or otherwise disclosed to be associated with, or otherwise identify, dirocVy ov indirectly, a particular taxpayer. - 36A - Sc?3 SEC. 4. INSPECTION OF CERTAIN RECORDS BY LOCAL OFFICERS. Section 4102 (relating to inspection of records, returns, etc., by local officers) is amended to read as follows: "SEC. 4102. INSPECTION OF RECORDS BY LOCAL OFFICERS. * Under regulations prescribed by the Secretary or his delegate, records required to be kept with respect to taxes under this part shall be open to inspection by such officers of a State, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia, a possession of the United States, or a political subdivision of any of the foregoing, as shall be charged v/ith the enforcement or collection of any tax on gasoline or lubricating oils. " SEC. 5. PENALTY FOR UNAUTHORIZED DISCLOSURE OF INFORMATION. Section 7213 (relating to unauthorized disclosure of information) is amended by striking out subsection (c), redesignating subsections (d) and (e) as (c) and (d) respectively, and by amending subsection (a) to read as follows: "(a) Returns and Return Information. -"(1) Federal employees and other persons. --It shall be unlawful for any officer or employee of the United States or any person described in section 6103 (1) (or an officer or - 37 - s?y employee of any such person), or any person who was formerly any of the foregoing, to disclose or make known in any manner whatever to any person, except as authorized in this title, any return or return information (as defined in section 6103(a)(2)); and it shall be unlawful for any person to print or publish in any manner whatever not provided by law any return or return information as so defined; and any person committing an offense against the foregoing provision shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction thereof, shall be fined not more than $5, 000, or imprisoned not more than 1 year, or both, together with the costs of prosecution, and if the offender be an officer or employee of the United States, he shall be dismissed from office or discharged from employment. "(2) State employees.--Any officer, employee, or agent, or former officer, employee, or agent, of any State (as defined in section 6103 (a) (2)) who discloses or makes known in any manner whatever to any person, except as authorized in this title, any return or return information (as defined in section 6103 (a) (2)) acquired by him or another person under section 6103 (b) shall be guilty of a misdemeanor, and upon conviction thereof, shall be fined not more than $5, 000, or imprisoned not more than 1 year, or both, together with the costs of prosecution. - 38 - SEC. 6. PROCESSING OF RETURNS, RETURN INFORMATION, AND OTHER DOCUMENTS. Section 7513 (relating to reproduction of returns and other documents) is amended to read as follows: "SEC. 7513. MAKING SPECIAL STATISTICAL STUDIES OR PROCESSING O R R E P R O D U C I N G O F R E T U R N S , R E T U R N INFORMATION, A N D O T H E R D O C U MENTS. "(a) In General. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to contract, in accordance with regulations to be prescribed by the Secretary or his delegate, with any department, agency, or other executive establishment of the Federal Government, any State agency, or any person for the purpose of making special statistical studies (as defined in section 6108 (b)) or of processing or making reproductions by any means whatever of any return or return information (as defined in section 6103 (a) (2)), document, or other matter. For purposes of this section, the term 'processing' includes services involving system design; advice, maintenance, and training in connection with such systems (and operation to the extent necessary or desirable for such purposes); or other assistance in connection with such processing. "(b) Regulations. --The Secretary or his delegate is authorized to prescribe regulations to provide such safeguards as in the opinio of the Secretary or his delegate are necessary or appropriate to protect returns, return information, documents, or other matter (and reproductions of any of the foregoing in any form whatever) r£6 - 39 - described in subsection (a) against any unauthorized use or any unauthorized disclosure. "(c) Penalty. --For penalty for unauthorized use or unauthorized disclosure of information contained in returns, return information, documents, or other matter, see section 7213. SEC. 7. O T H E R A P P L I C A B L E R U L E S . Section 7852 (relating to other rules applicable under title 26) is amended by adding at the end thereof the follo-wing new subsection (e): "(e) Privacy Act of 1974. --The provisions of subsections (d)(2), (d)(3), (d)(4), and (g) of section 552a of title 5, United States Code, shall not, except as otherwise provided in section 6103(o), be applied, directly or indirectly, 1o the determination of any matter to which the provisions o=f this subtitle apply. " SEC. 8. T E C H N I C A L A N D C O N F O R M I N G A M E N D M E N T S . (1) Section 6106 (relating to publicity of une-mployment tax returns) is hereby repealed. (2) Section 6110 (relating to cross-references) is amended by striking out paragraphs (2), (3), (4), and (5), and by inserting in lieu thereof "(2) For inspection of certain records concerning gasoline or lubricating oils by local officers, see section 4102. " (3) Section 6323 (relating to validity and priority of tax liens against certain persons) is amended by striking out paragraph (3) of subsection (i). (4) Subsection (e) of section 7213 (relating to cross-references) is amended by striking out paragraph (1) and inserting in lieu thereof "(1) Penalties for disclosure of information by preparers of returns. --For penalty for disclosure or use of information by preparers of returns, see section 7216. " (5) Section 7515 (relating to special statistical studies and compilations and other services on request) is hereby repealed. (6) Subsection (c) of section 7809 (relating to deposit of collections) is amended by striking out in paragraph (1) the words "section 7515 (relating to special statistical studies and compilations for other services on request;" and inserting in lieu thereof "section 6103 (p) (relating to furnishing of copies of returns or of return information) and section 6108 (b) (relating to special statistical studies and compilations;" Technical changes to change table of concents to be added. &r FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE EDWIN H. YEO, III UNDER SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR MONETARY AFFAIRS BEFORE THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 1975, 10:00 A.M. I am very pleased to respond to your invitation to discuss the debt limit and related debt management matters, and I will respond as fully as I can to any questions that the Committee may have. Let me say at the outset that at this time we are unable to provide estimates of receipts and outlays and the resultant deficit for fiscal year 1976. From the standpoint of forecasting revenues as well as expenditures, this is a particularly difficult time. The economy is recovering. While the strength of the upturn is yet to be fully assessed, the initial data convey a sense of vigor and evidence of a strong recovery. The difficulty of gauging the impact of the recovery on the income side of the Budget is demonstrated by the following specific items: 1. The underlying GNP, personal income and corporate profits figures are still uncertain at this early stage of the economic recovery. 2. There may be inaccuracies in estimates of individual capital gains, since 1974 figures will not be available until late 1975. 3. The potential effects of corporate net losses in calculating refunds are uncertain. 4. There are uncertainties about the lag in collecting corporate tax liabilities since corporations have a degree of flexibility in paying their taxes and in calendar year 1975 there was a sharp drop in profits, measured on a national income accounts basis. WS-390 - 2These problems largely reflect the state of the forecasting art, as well as the range of unpredictable factors which must be taken into account. For example, we have no firm basis on which to judge future trends in consumer sentiment. However, we know that the Federal taxing and spending