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\c .WbP4 U . <& , " " T W A A J O L U bjU(?"t- • V^MU^ OG-Qa^U-OO , LIBRARY ROOM 503O SEP?' 1975 TREASURY DEPARTMENT — Department ojtneTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 April 1, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY ANNOUNCES MODIFICATION OF DUMPING FINDING ON TUNERS (OF THE TYPE USED IN CONSUMER ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS) FROM JAPAN Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today a Modification of Dumping Finding on tuners (of the type used in consumer electronic products) from Japan, with respect to Matsushita Electric Industrial Company, Ltd., Matsushita Electric Trading Company, Ltd., and Victor Company of Japan. Notice of this action will appear in the Federal Register of Wednesday, April 2, 1975. For the reasons stated in the "Notice of Tentative Determination to Modify or Revoke Dumping Finding" published in the Federal Register of December 12, 1974, with respect to Matsushita Electric Industrial Company, Ltd. and Matsushita Electric Trading Company, Ltd., and in the Federal Register of January 22, 1975, with respect to Victor Company of Japan, tuners from Japan are no longer being, nor are likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value by these three companies. During the period January through October 1974, imports of tuners from Japan were valued at approximately $6,300,000. # # # FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 1, TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,500,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued April 10, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated January 9, 1975, and to mature July 10, 1975, (CUSIP No. 912793 XD3), originally issued in the amount of $2,304,625,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,800,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated April 10, 1975 and to mature October 9, 1975, (CUSIP No. 912793 XS0). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing April 10, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $4,706,940,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,251,350,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, April 7, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in multiples of $5,000. In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on April 10, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing ment. April 10, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or U.S. RANKING IN INVESTMENT AND IN REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IS AMONG LOWEST OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, TREASURY STUDY SAYS The United States ranking in real economic growth is among the lowest of the industrialized countries because a relatively low share of its output is being allocated to investment, according to a study released today by Treasury Department staff economists H. I. Liebling and J. Jaakson. This lag in U.S. investment over the past 13 years, the economists said, has "contributed to relatively lower rates of advance of productivity and national output." Liebling and Jaakson said "this disparity in investment has effectively lowered rates of advance in living standards of the average consumer in the United States, created shortages in basic materials industries during periods of economic expansion and added substantially to the inflationary consequences of high employment in recent years." The Treasury economists indicated also that the falling share of U.S. resources allocated to investment has "limited job opportunities" because "had the growth of plant and equipment exceeded that of the labor force, more jobs would have been required to utilize that increased capacity." They concluded that the policy implications for the U.S. point towards encouragement of capital formation by minimizing tax disincentives, use of accounting methods which adjust earnings for replacement cost of capital and elimination of tax barriers to the flow of capital into productive uses. 0O0 Attachment Review of Economic and Financial Developments, Treasury Department, March 21, 1975 WS-265 Rtviiw of ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS March 21, 1975 INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH IN MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES Over the past decade and more, the U.S. share of its output allocated to investment has been below that of other major industrialized nations and thereby contributed to relatively lower rates of advance in productivity and national output. This disparity has effectively lowered rates of advance in living standards of the average consumer in the U.S., created shortages in basic materials producing industries during periods of economic expansion and added substantially to the inflationary consequences of high employment in recent years. The disparity also has limited job opportunities in the sense that had the growth of plant and equipment exceeded that of the labor force, more jobs would have been required to utilize that increased capacity. U.S. Investment as Percent of Real National Output 1960-73* NonresiTotal dential Fixed** Fixed 17.5 13.6 Japan West Germany France Canada Italy United Kingdom 35.0 25.8 24.5 21.8 20.5 18.5 29.0 20.0 18.2 17.4 14.4 15.2 11 OECD Countries 24.7 19.4 (1960-72) * OECD concepts of investment and national product. 1973 estimated. ** Including residential. The U.S. share of total national output devoted to so-called fixed investment averaged 17.5% during 1960-73. This share was lower than in any of the 11 major industrialized nations for which* comparable information was developed in this analysis. It compared with Japan's peak share of 35.0%, West Germany's 25.8%, and France's 24.5%. But, even at the lower end, the shares of the United Kingdom at 18.5% and of Italy at 20.5% were higher than in the U.S. On the average, the 11 OECD countries allocated - 2 - 24.7% of their output to fixed investment — seven percentage points more than in the U.S., as shown in the table on page 1. The investment shares noted above include residential buildings, as well as nonresidential fixed capital. Only the latter might be considered by some as contributing to productivity, whereas residential purchases might be considered as consumption expenditures. Figures on both bases are shown in the table. (In addition, the OECD concept includes nondefense government outlays on machinery and equipment in private investment for which a special adjustment needs to be made in the U.S. national accounts for comparability. National output is defined in these computations as "gross domestic product" — a somewhat different output measure than gross national product but which conforms with OECD useage.) A ranking of countries with respect to investment ratios to GDP and real growth rates during 1960-73 is shown in the table on this page. A strong correlation between high ratios and high growths is indicated. Investment Ratios and Growth Rates of Real Output, 1960-73* Investment Ratio Percent Rank Japan W. Germany France Canada** U.K.** Italy U.S. 29.0 20.0 18.2 17.4 15.2 14.4 13.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Output Growth Rate Percent Rank 10.8 5.5 5.9 5.4 2.9 5.2 4.1 1 3 2 4 7 5 6 *Data estimated for 1973. **Data applies to 1961-73 and are not strictly comparable to data presented for other countries. (The respective standings of these countries should be considered approximations because prices of investment goods vary internationally. Since prices are used as weights to value output, differences in relative prices contribute to differences in the investment shares.) Due in large part to higher shares of investment, productivity - 3 - increases of these other industrialized countries surpassed those of the U.S. in recent years. One such measure of productivity — real output of total goods and services per employed civilian — shows that productivity increases from 1960 to 1973 have exceeded that of the U.S. by an average annual rate of 6.7 percentage points in Japan, 3.2 percentage points in Italy, and 2.4 percentage points in France. As a result, the absolute level of superiority of U.S. productivity is rapidly diminishing, relative to other major industrialized countries. This is shown in the chart. • Japan has narrowed this superiority from 18% of U.S. productivity in 1950 to 28% in 1960, and to 65% in 1973. • Italy has narrowed the gap from 30% in 1950 to 41% in 1960, and to 62% in 1973. • Real Output per Employed Civilian 1950-74 Indexes, United States • 100' ^United States France and West Germany have improved their relative performances by rising to four-fifths of the U.S. level in 1973, as compared with three-fifths in I960. 100 Lower rates of productivity gain in the U.S. relative to other countries is also registered in the manufacturing. sectors of these economies. The rates of gain in manufacturing are larger than for total national output. But, here, too, the pattern of declining superiority of the U.S. is clearly portrayed. (See table on next page.) ^Canada 20 - . * — * ' 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 72 74 Other factors than fixed capital formation, of course, contribute to productivity - 4- and real GDP growth. Among these are the growth in the employed labor force, age of the stock of capital, enhanced labor and managerial skills, education, etc. Some studies have given greater importance to these factors than to rates of investment. Furthermore, high rates . of growth in capital stock are much easier achieved — and hence productivity enhanced — where that capital stock is low relative to output. Granted that other factors than physical investment contribute to growth, there would still remain large benefits to productivity resulting from larger growth in the capital stock. Productivity Growth, 1960-1973 (Average Annual Rate) GDP per Manufacturing employed output per person manhour United States 2.1 3.3 Japan W. Germany France Canada Italy United Kingdom 9.2 5.4 5.2 10.5 11 OECD Nations 5.7 2.8 5.8 6.0 4.3 6.4 4.0 5.2* 6.1 2.4. The economic policy implications to attain greater productivity growth from this source would require some alteration in our consumption and saving patterns. In one way or another, the incentives for investment would need to be encouraged, The increase in the investment tax credit now under public consideration is a step in this direction. •Average for 6 OECD countries listed. OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY OFFICE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FUR RELEASE WEDNESDAY A.M. April 2, 1975 BOSTON BANKER NAMED TO DEBT MANAGEMENT POST Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon today announced the appointment of Ralph M. Forbes, a Boston banker, as Special Assistant to the Secretary for Debt Management. He will be sworn into his new post in ceremonies in the Secretary's office Friday. In his new position, Forbes will have a major responsibility in the formulation of policy for financing the public debt. In the capacity of Special Assistant to the Secretary, Forbes also will serve as Vice President of the Federal Financing Bank, and as coordinator of Federal agency financing. A native of Sherborn, Massachusetts, Forbes joined the First National Bank of Boston 11 years ago, shortly after graduating from Harvard College with an A.B. degree. Beginning as a trainee at the bank, he was subsequently assigned to the investment division, where he progressed to investment officer, assistant vice president, and, in December 1971, vice president. As vice president, he had responsibilities relating to money market transactions, with emphasis on U.S. Treasury and related debt instruments, as well as state and local government obligations. He participated also in longrange planning, funding and general policy decisions of the bank. He is married to the former Tally Saltonstall. The couple has four children, Suki, James, Heidi and Laura, and live in Milton, Massachusetts. oOo WS-266 I DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON. DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR RELEASE 6:30 P.M. April 1, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 20-MONTH TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $1.5 billion of the $3.8 billion of tenders received from the public for the 20-month notes auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield 6.95% 1/ Highest yield 7.19% Average yield 7.15% The interest rate on the notes will be 7-1/8%. At the 7-1/8% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.234 High-yield price Average-yield price 99.865 99.926 The $ 1.5 billion of accepted tenders includes 19% of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $0.1 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. No tenders were received from Government accounts or from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Excepting 8 tenders totaling $1,160,000. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 1, 1975 ALTERNATE U. S. EXECUTIVE OF IDB IS SWORN IN Yan M. Ross was sworn in today as Alternate Executive Director of the Inter-American Development Bank. The oath was administered by Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon at the main Treasury building. Ross had served since May 1970, as minority counsel to the House Banking and Currency Committee. Previously, he spent nearly three years as an Air Force officer trainee, receiving a 1st Lieutenant commission in May 1970. Earlier, he was an administrative officer trainee for the Central Intelligency Agency, from July 1967 to February 1968, and had done legal research work in Brazil during school vacation periods in 1964 and 1965. A native of New York City, Ross graduated from Princeton University with an A.B. degree in 1964, and from Yale Law School, LL.B., in 1967. He is married to the former Kathleen Browne, a national representative of the Girl Scouts of America. The couple has two children and resides in Bethesda, Maryland. oOo WS-267 Hello, I'm delighted to be with you today. I like your city, your sunshine,and your people. I also like the subjects I've been asked to talk about — which are women and Savings Bonds and the economy. That's a nice, wide variety. Variety is what women are all about. And !'all about" is where we are these days. We are mopping kitchen floors, raising families, living in communes, robbing banks, trying for the executive suite, and in general being as good, bad, smart, silly and cantankerous as men. Fifty percent of women between 18 and 65 are currently working. We're as well educated as men but, on the average, we earn only three-fifth's of a man's salary. There are many reasons for this and one — the main reason — is that many women work only on a part-time basis. For many women, jobs are secondary to their careers as wives and mothers. Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, Fort Worth Women's Club, Fort Worth, Texas on April 2, 1975 B Politics is one area that attracts women. Mrs. Ella Grasso is now Connecticut's governor while Mary Ann Krupsak is the Lieutenant Governor of New York. Five new women entered Congress this year, to join the dozen already there. A good friend of mine, Mary Louise Smith, is the first woman chairman of the Republican National Committee. And a few days ago, I attended a reception honoring Mrs. Carla Hills, our new Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and the third woman cabinet officer in history. In other fields, American women are scoring other gains. Congress outlawed credit discrimination based on sex last year. The Bank of America settled a class action suit on behalf of its female employees, which will mean about $10 million in additional income to women. And in education, the number of women students in medical schools is double what it was three years ago. I've been talking about working women — automatically think of paid jobs. put in a good word for volunteers. important to our society. and we But I'd like to They are terribly Some 7 0 million people have volunteer jobs, and they contribute an estimated $50 billion a year to America's "gross national product." I am a wife, mother and dedicated believer in the value of volunteers. For the first quarter century of my adult life, I volunteered for everything from the PTA to the GOP. I was privileged to learn many techniques a and skills this way, because a willing volunteer can often work with top people. I personally feel my route to a career was via the way of the volunteer. Today, I work full time as the United States Treasurer and as National Director of the Savings Bonds Division. I am heartened to know that 99 percent of the Bond selling program is accomplished by volunteers. I suspect — workers I hope — that some of you are among those in our program. Our National Savings Bonds goal for 1975 is 6.8 billion dollars in bond sales, and at least 2.4 million new or increased savers. Here in Tarrant County, the 1974 bond sales total was $19,255,000 — or 107 percent of your goal. Congratulations! I'm happy to tell you that in our United States Savings Bonds program we have leadership from the top. I was privileged to visit with President Gerald Ford a few days ago. He is a regular Savings Bonds buyer, and he told me that this year he is increasing his payroll deduction. I certainly don't intend to tell you all the advantages of Savings Bonds today. You probably already know what they are. Bonds are a safe, convenient, painless way to save, with a very attractive 6 percent interest rate. A banker friend of mine has added up figures which show that over the last 5 years $7 5 invested monthly in bonds is worth more today than the same amount invested in stocks on the Moody's Incfustrial Index. Bonds also have tax advantages which can increase that 6 percent rate substantially. Finally, Savings Bonds help the nation. They put more of the Federal debt into the hands of long term savers. They remain outstanding, on the average, for six years, while other marketable instruments turn over in three years or less. Almost a quarter of our publicly held national debt is in the form of Savings Bonds. So, our Bonds are good for America and good for Americans. Sales of series E and H bonds were at a 29-year high in 1974. And, so far this year, sales are even higher. In this period of inflation and recession, the proven performance of these United States Savings Bonds is very appealing. Let's talk a little more about inflation and recession, and some of the other shocks that have hit our economy this past year. Since last April -— We have experienced the highest rate of inflation in our peacetime history. — Our economy is in the worst slump in years. — Oil prices have quadrupled. — And $100 million of the world's wealth has been transferred to a small bank of developing nations. These stories all made the headlines. But another story — equally as important — did not. And that is the suory of how well our economic system has operated under conditions of extraordinary stress. Throughout 1974, the prophets of doom announced that our Ship of State was halfway under water and sinking fast. That isn't true and it won't be true. America is alive and well, and both America and I will be here to welcome my as-yet-unborn grandchildren — who, incidentally, will be Texans as my daughter had the good sense to pick a super son-in-law for me from your state. Let's look at the record of what the doubters have predicted, and then let's see what actually happened. — Prices on foreign oil jumped in 1974, and it was said that the international financial system might collapse, as massive sums of money were transferred. In fact, the financial institutions responded with considerable skill. OPEC funds were rather widely disbursed. And the oil comsuming nations are presently working on new international agreements for future emergencies. J J I Further, new oil discoveries outside of the OPEC nations, and new production in the United States and elsewhere will eventually result in lowered prices. As Treasury Secretary William Simon says, it's a question of when, not if. For another example of how the sky didn't fall, let's look at gold sales. Late last year, Americans were allowed - to buy gold for the first time in decades. The predictions were that we were in for a great new gold rush. This did not occur. When I checked a few weeks ago, gold was selling below the quoted prices of December 30. For a final example, let's consider the fears of some people that we are heading into another Great Depression. Of course, we have a recession, but it does not come close to the conditions of the 1930's. Unemploy- ment figures in 1975 are only about a third of the 1930's figures, and there are such safety nets as Social Security, medicare, unemployment payments, and food stamps. Treasury Secretary William Simon believes the present economic slide will bottom out during the middle months of this year. As he put it the other day, he sees "patches of blue in a gray, wintry sky." Our free enterprise system still functions, and the laws of supply and demand still work. But, too often it seems to me, we tend to doubt our institutions and not our doubters. Since I am a strong advocate of the free enterprise system, people sometimes ask me, "If this system works so well, why is there such a high rate of inflation and unemployment?" There are several reasons. We fought a war in Viet Nam and charged it. We sustained world-wide crop failures. We suffered an oil embargo, and oil prices today are high. But more fundamentally, we have for years abused our economic system. The fact that it still functions so well is a great tribute to its basic strength. Our growing Federal government puts enormous demands on the economy. The proliferation of government regulations burdens both business and the consumer. Federal regulations, for example, added $320 to the price of a 1974 car. And, our national habits of encouraging consumption and federal spending at the cost of savings and investment is a very serious concern. Capital investment in the United States in recent years has been the lowest of any industrial nation in the free world. Secretary Simon and other government officials are working to turn some of these trends around. They feel, and I agree, that — We must restore greater discipline to our financial affairs. — We must lighten the hand of government in many areas. — And we must encourage savings, investment and capital formation. Finally, we must turn away from the doomsayers. Despite our problems, we have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in-material goods. speak to the good in each other. Now we need to y But we need to do more than speak — we need to act. As parents, we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace, and the legitimacy of profit. As business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually serving as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers. As citizens, we must demand that the news media make some effort to understand our economic system. As voters, we must make certain that our elected officials understand that good economics is good politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years of history. , Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping society. Thank you. ^ I am delighted to be here today. I love being back •In the Southwest and I always enjoy meeting members of the Federal family, even though I joined that family rather recently. I have worked most of my adult life -- although I never received a paycheck until last year. However, after 25 years as a volunteer for many, many causes, I began a new career as a payroll relation of Uncle Sam when I became Treasurer of the United States last summer. During my 9 and 1/2 months on the job, I have met hundreds of Civil Service people in Washington and across the country. And I am genuinely impressed by most of you. You work hard, you work smart, and you have an enormous impact on this Nation. I'm honored to be one of you. As the United States Treasurer, and the National Director of the Savings Bonds Division, I have a number of jobs to fill my 10-hour day. Today, I'd like to discuss two of them: the Bicentennial and the "buy bonds" programs. As Chairman of the Treasury Department's Bicentennial Programs, I am involved in some exciting projects to celebrate our Nation's birthday. Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, United States Treasurer, to the Federal Business Association, Fort Worth, Texas, April 3, 19 75. As you may know, our Main Treasury Building in Washington, D. C., is itself a designated National Historic Landmark. Within this lovely old building, the 3rd oldest office building in the city, we are planning a moveable "Museum without .walls" that will line the second fioor halls with an exhibit of rare and unique historical materials. Each division within Treasury is currently reviewing its own materials of historic value and interest, and we plan to trace the development of our Federal Government via Treasury and its role past and present. In addition, we plan to change the present "Cash Room" of Main Treasury from its very drab role as a place to cash checks back into its original, Cinderella costume as a lovely, ceremonial-type room for receptions and other occasions. The so-called "Cash Room" is really a beautiful marble- room with wrought iron balconies that was built around the time of the Civil War. At the time it was built it was considered the most expensive and beautiful public room in Washington. We're going to make a mighty try to recall old glories and to create the much-needed formal receiving room. Of course, most Bicentennial activities will take place outside of the Treasury Building. We will be issuing coins, medals,, philatelic cards and so on, and the newly designed quarters, half dollars and dollars will be circulating by mid-summer. ) 7 K In addition, the Treasury Department will commemorate a number of historic customhouses throughout the country with appropriate ceremonies. And we will join other agencies in sponsoring a number of projects. I'll mention two of them: the Bicentennial Youth Debates and the American Freedom Train. The Youth Debates are a nationwide project supported by the National Endowment for the Humanities and the Speech Communication Association. They will begin this Fall and plans are to involve high schools, junior colleges, and four-year colleges. Treasury will assist in awarding Bicentennial coins or specially designed Savings Bonds to the winners. The American Freedom Train is a major project of the American Freedom Train, Incorporated. The present plans call for a 2 4-car, steam powered train to visit all 48 states during 19 75 and 19 76. It will carry hundreds of exhibits to make American history come alive -- complete with the sights, sounds and smells that are evocative of our 20 0 years as a Nation. The Treasury Department is the nation's second oldest Federal department and we have a number of exhibits on loan to the Freedom Train, including old forms of currency, old World War I & II Bond posters and so on. Present plans call for the Freedom Train to visit your area next February. d Texas has a long and rich history, and I know you must be planning many exciting state and regional projects for the Bicentennial. I hope to find out more about a few of them during my stay in Fort Worth. My,duties as Chairman of the Treasury Bicentennial Program will intensify later this year. Right now, I'm spending much of my time fulfilling my duties as National Director of the United States Savings Bonds Division. So let me tell you a little about that. Most of us grew up with Savings Bonds — — or Defense Bonds — or War Bonds or even with their predecessor, the Baby Bonds of the late 19 30's. I sold War Bonds as a youngster during World War II, and I imagine some of you did too. Most of us very well know the personal advantages of buying bonds. Savings Bonds are a safe, secure, and very convenient way to save — especially when your yearnings exceed your earnings, and you find it hard to put something away for a rainy day. With their 6 percent interest rate, bonds are attractive financially. A banker friend of mine has added up some figures and discovered that if you put $75 monthly into United States Savings Bonds for the past six years, you would be further aheacj today than if you invested the same amount in over the counter stocks listed on the Moody's Industrial Index. Furthermore, bonds have attractive tax aspects. You pay no state and local taxes and you pay federal taxes on the interest only when you redeem the bonds — in other words, you can defer federal taxes on Savings Bonds until its advantageous for you to cash them in. Beyond the financial aspect, Bonds are a vote for America's future — a way to say "yes" to America. Most of us find it hard to say, "I love America". But we can buy bonds — "Take Stock In America" — and that says it all right there. In addition to these reasons, I am now beginning to appreciate the important role Savings Bonds play in our nation's debt structure. Almost a quarter of the publicly-held portion of the national debt is in the form of Series E and H Bonds. And this 2 4 percent is far and away the most stable part of our debt. In fact, E and H Bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for more than six years, as compared to less than 3 years for other marketable instruments. A quick turnover in the Federal debt is unsatisfactory for at least two reasons. First, when the debt becomes too liquid, or "spendable", it can be inflationary. And second, the cost of refinancing a rapidly maturing debt is difficult and expensive. So you can see why Savings Bonds -- which remain outstanding for so long -- are the sturdy backbone of the government's long-term debt. This is true no matter what you hear about "X" number of bonds being cashed in quickly. Besides holding bonds, our buyers are buying more. 1974 was the best sales year in 29 years, and 1975 is starting off even better. As we go into our "Take Stock in America" Savings bondsselling campaign, we are counting on the almost 2,900,000 men and women in the Federal family to lead the way. And your leadership is coming right from the top. I was privileged to visit the White House and chat briefly with President Ford a few days ago. He has been a bond buyer for years , but' he told me that this year he is increasing his regular payroll deduction. I'm pleased at this, and I hope many of you follow his example. 1^ would like to, but I'm one of only two people in the entire country who are forbidden, by law, to buy Savings Bonds. My boss, Secretary of the Treasury William Simon, is the other person. But legislation is going forward to change this. Very soon now I should be able to join you at the payroll savings counter. In the meantime, I will continue urging groups like yourselves to do two things for the bond program: — to buy bonds yourself — And to volunteer your time and talents to the bond program. Do you know, 99 percent of the people who work for Savings Bonds are volunteers? We couldn't move without you. 0 We have a true grassroots program and its succeeds only because of all of the thousands of willing, wonderful volunteers who say "yes" to America in this way. We can't offer our Savings Bonds volunteers money. We can't offer you fame, or advancement or other tangible awards. you. All we can say we, need you. Your country needs And it is the glory of America that you, and thousands like you, respond. I am pleased that, today, I can personally thank you on behalf of President Gerald Ford and Treasury Secretary William Simon — and the American people -- for your work in support of United States Savings Bonds. — To Peggy Huffman who is the Federal Employees Savings Bonds coordinator, to S. J. Stovall, Program Director of the Federal Business Association, and to Darwin Wilder, President of the Federal Business Association — our special thanks. Now I'd like to end on a lighter, Springtime note. I'd like to be the first United States Treasurer to speak about money in words that are not only understandable but positively lyrical. So — a salute to money. Workers earn it, Spendthrifts burn it, Our bonds enlarge it, Housewives charge it, Bankers lend it, Congress spends it, Gamblers love it, And all of us could use more of it. April is spring, and spring, from Nature's viewpoint, begins the new year. During the past year — the past 12 months — we have all seen enormous changes in our country. — We have — for the first time — an American President, and Vice President, appointed to office. — We have had the highest rate of inflation in our peacetime history. — We have had the worst economic slump in a quarter of a century. — And $100 billion of the world's wealth has been transferred to a small band of developing nations. The past year has brought personal and economic changes to all of us. But one of the major stories of 1974 has escaped the headlines. To me, that story is how well our economic and political system operated under conditions of extraordinary stress. Remarks for the Top Management Meeting, San Antonio, Texas on April 4, 1975 at 12 noon. -2- After every major change, the Calamity Janes — and Joes — in our midst renamed our Ship of State the Titanic, and announced that we were already halfway under water and sinking fast. That isn't true, and it won't be true. America is alive, and, going and growing, and both America and I will be here to welcome my as-yet-unborn granchildren — who, incidentally, will be Texans as my daughter had the good sense to pick a super son-in-law from your state. Besides inflation, recession, and oil problems, last year was memorable to me personally because that was when I became Treasurer of the United States. This was an event of considerable less cosmic significance, which occurred last June 21st, and which occasioned my transfer from New Mexico to Washington, D.C. This was the beginning of a whole new lifestyle which is, for me, mind-expanding and — unfortunately — waistline expanding as well, since I now give several speeches a week to the accompaniment of delicious food like this. At the Main Treasury Department in D.C, my boss, Treasury Secretary William Simon, and his staff, are very concerned and involved with the problems of money, oil, inflation and recession. They are concerned — but they are not Calamity Janes, and they most certainly do not see the end of the world Thursday at 10 o'clock as some pundits like to predict. Let's look at the record of what has been predicted and what actually has happened. The prices of foreign oil have quadrupled, and some prophets of doom said the international financial system would collapse as massive sums of money were transferred within world markets. What really happened was a little different. Financial institutions responded with considerable skill. OPEC funds were rather widely disbursed. And the oil consuming nations are making progress in establishing new international agreements for future emergencies. Furthermore, new oil discoveries outside of the OPEC nations, in recent years, and new production in the U.S. and elsewhere will mean an eventual lowering of these inflated prices. As Secretary Simon says, it's a question of when, not if. As another example where the sky didn't fall, let's look at gold sales. Late last year, American citizens were allowed to buy gold for the first time in decades. Many critics predicted that we would join with international speculators in a great new gold rush. In fact, no hysteria — occurred. no great gold speculation — When I checked a few weeks ago, gold was selling at about $20 below the quoted prices of December 30. For a final brief example, let's look at inflation and recession and the fears of some critics that we are right on target for another Great Depression like the 1930's. Of course, we have real inflation — and a recession. But government officials, and economists in and out of government, believe the present economic slide will bottom out during the middle months of this year and that by the end of 197 5, we will be on the road to recovery. The end of recession is not just around the corner. But, as my boss Secretary Simon put it the other day, he sees "patches of blue in a gray, wintry sky." For example: Wholesale prices have fallen for 3 months in a row — the first decline in 8 years. The prime lending rate has fallen from 12% last July to 7.75%, and funds are returning to the thrift institutions. i Automobile makers are reducing inventories, and some employees have been recalled to work. And on the stock market, the Dow Jones Averages have / risen considerably over their low of last year. Our free enterprise economic system still functions, and the laws of supply and demand still apply. These are facts, and they do not cease to be facts because they are ignored, twisted, or misunderstood. Too often, it seems to me, we apologize for ourselves and our institutions and do not think to doubt the doubters. It reminds me u of the aphorism that Americans are free to say what they think even when they don't bother to think. Our countrymen have the greatest mass prosperity ever known — yet we, and they, have strangely little faith in the free enterprise system that makes it possible. Perhaps it's not faith we lack, but the "push", or the will, to learn more about our economic system and to make sure that our children's generation also understand the basic principles behind the system. Take, for example, the matter of profits. In some circles this is almost a dirty word, synonymous with greed or dishonesty. Yet, if it weren't for profits, we wouldn't have businesses — we wouldn't have healthy companies to make our goods and provide jobs for people. It is not healthy, profitable businesses that — in the vernacular — "rip off" society. It is the unprofitable business that harms society, that must be propped up by someone else's money, and that results in heavy social costs and the loss of jobs. As Britain's Sir Winston Churchill said, "It is a socialist idea that making profits is a vice. I consider the real vice is making losses." Churchill would be delighted with our United States Savings Bonds program because it benefits everyone — the individual who buys and the government which promotes. Savings Bonds are part of America. As a teenager, I sold war bonds on Saturday mornings in my little hometown of Mountainair, New Mexico. Over the years I gave, and received, bonds as presents. I know, and so do you, that Savings Bonds are a safe, convenient, painless way to save. At 6 percent interest, bonds are also very competitive. One banker friend has added up some figures which show that $75 invested in bonds monthly in the last 6 years are worth more today than the same amount of money invested in stocks on the Moody's Industrial Index. More recently, I discovered the tax advantages of bonds — advantages which under certain circumstances can raise your after-tax income substantially. As United States Treasurer, I am now aware of the ways that bonds help our nation. They are a noninflationary way to put more of the Federal debt into the hands of long-term savers. Savings Bonds remain outstanding for an average of 6 years, while other marketable instruments turn over in 3 years or less. i Almost a quarter of our publicly held national debt is in the form of Savings Bonds. Finally, bonds are a tangible expression of faith in America and her future. Perhaps that's why, in these difficult times, the sale of Savings Bonds is rising. A record 6.9 billion were sold last year — the highest figure in 29 years. This year, we are exceeding even that record. Americans know a good thing when they see it — and "good things" include United States Savings Bonds. V \3 Savings Bonds go a long way in encouraging Americans to be thrifty and in teaching us the virtues of financial independence. Since I am a strong advocate of personal independence via the free enterprise system, people sometimes ask me: "If free enterprise works so well, why is there such a high rate of inflation and unemployment?" Well, we all know there are several reasons. We fought a war in Viet Nam and charged it. We recently sustained world-wide crop failure. We suffered an oil embargo, and prices on oil today are high. But more fundamentally, we have, for years, abused our economic system. The fact that it still functions so well is a great tribute to the basic strength of a marketplace economy. — Our ever-growing Federal government puts enormous demands on the economy. This year our national budget is past the $300 billion mark.And for the first time, the t i Treasury Department is borrowing money that will not be repaid until the 21st century. — heavy Our monetary policies, with their huge deficits, borrowing and increasing money supply have increas our problems. — The proliferation of government regulations adds many costs to business and eventually consumers. For example, federal regulations added $320 to the price of a 1974 car. — Finally our national habit of encouraging con- sumption and federal spending at the cost of savings and investments is a very serious concern. Capital invest- ment in the United States in recent years has been the lowest of any major industrial nation in the free world. These trends place enormous strains on the economy. Secretary Simon and other government officials are trying to make some changes. And, as I indicated, there are recent signs of improvement. But we must still restore greater discipline to our financial affairs. We must lighten the hand of government in many areas. And we must encourage savings, investment , and capital formation. Finally, we must turn away from the doomsayers who see only the dark side of things. Despite our problems, we have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in material goods. Now we need to speak to the good in •/ , each other. But we need to do more than speak — we need to act. /, As parents,we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace; and the legitimacy of profit. As business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually serving as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers. As citizens, we must demand that the news media make some effort to understand our economic system. As voters, we must make certain that our elected officials — from D.C. to City Hall — understand that good economics is good politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years as a going, growing nation. Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping our society. Thank you. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tuesday, April 1, 1975 FOR INFORMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY FILES BEFORE THE CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD Attached is a copy of the Council on Wage and Price Stability's filing to the Civil Aeronautics Board supporting the request for suspension and investigation of the Youth, Senior Citizen and Family Fares filed by Trans World Airlines for an "experimental period of 9-1/2 months" to begin April 13, 1975. o 0 o CWPS-35 ft Before the CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD Washington, D.C. In the Matter of ) TRANS WORLD AIRLINES, INC. ) Docket Nos. 27657, ) 27658, Proposed 1975 Youth, Senior ) 27661, Citizen, and Family Fares ) and 27685 Answer of the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Support of Petitions for Suspension and Investigation The Council on Wage and Price Stability (the "Council") hereby submits its answer in support of the petitions of Eastern Air Lines, United Air Lines, the American Society of Travel Agents, and the Department of Transportation insofar as they request suspension and investigation of the Youth, Senior Citizen and Family Fares filed by Trans World Airlines (TWA) for an "experimental period of 9-1/2 months" to begin April 13, 1975. The promotional fares filed by TWA provide for reduced cost travel for selected segments of the population — family members, youths, and senior citizens — willing to comply with their terms. Specifically, the - 2 Family Plan offers normal reserved seat coach service at a 33-1/3 percent reduction from normal coach fares for the spouse and/or children, 2 to 21 years old, accompanying a head of family who pays the full fare. The fare is not available during the peak summer period or during certain holiday blackout periods. The fare is available only on a round-trip basis and travel must be completed within six days. The youth and senior citizen fares are for no-reservation or standby service. The two plans are identical except for the ages of the passengers in the two favored groups. __/ Each offers a 33-1/3 percent reduction from the normal coach fare. Each is available year round, except for certain holiday blackouts. In order to quality a passenger must make a one-time purchase of an I.D. card for $5. In support of its proposal, TWA states that a limited offering of these fares will provide increased revenues (and decrease excess capacity) and thereby reduce the losses which the carrier expects in the near future. */ The youth fare is available for travelers between the ages of 12 and 21, while the senior citizen fare is available to passengers 65 years of age or over. (( Thus, the carrier contends that the fares will benefit not only those who use them but all travelers by "reducing the level of further fare level increases in the near future." TWA acknowledges that the fares are of the general type that were found unjustly discriminatory by the Board in Phase 5 of the recent Domestic Passenger Fare Investigation (DPFI). However, it argues that the industry is experiencing unusual economic problems today — namely, unprecedented inflationary cost increases (particularly fuel) and a recent sharp decline in traffic. Under these circumstances TWA urges that the Board permit the use of every promotional tool available including the fares at issue. Petitions seeking suspension and investigation of TWA's tariffs have been filed by Eastern Air Lines, United Air Lines, the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA), the National Association of Motor Bus Owners (NAMBO), and the Department of Transportation. The Council on Wage and Price Stability hereby answers in support of those petitions insofar as they seek suspension and investigation of TWA's fares. __/ V In supporting the requests for suspension and investigation, we do not necessarily endorse all of the arguments made by each of the petitioners. - 4 The Council has a direct interest in the fares in question. The Council was created by the Council on Wage and Pr5 Se Stability Act of 1974 (Public Law No. 93-387) on August 24, 1974. The Council's purposes under the Act are, generally summarized, to monitor the inflationary impact of activities in both the public and private sectors of the economy. Section 3(a)(7) of the Act expressly directs the Council to review and appraise the various programs, policies and activities of the departments and agencies of the United States for the purposes of determining the extent to which those programs and activities are contributing to inflation. Further, Section 5 of the Act requires the Council to report its findings and recommendations for the^ containment of inflation to the President and Congress. With respect to air transportation, we are particularly concerned with the sharp rise in scheduled air fares, amounting to nearly 20 percent over the last 18 months. Understandably some of this increase has been attributable to substantially higher fuel costs over this period which have been passed through in higher fares. At the same time, however, the national economy, already suffering from prolonged inflation, entered a major recession. The result of these forces — substantial fare increases and a deteriorating economic situation — has been the stagnation of air carrier traffic and, for some carriers, significant traffic declines. Indeed, the industry as a whole has reported a substantial traffic decline so far in calendar 1975. Moreover, for most carriers, the economic effects of these declines in traffic have been exacerbated by substantial increases in capacity in recent months as carrier operations have returned to "normal" following the easing of the fuel situation. As a result, load factors have declined even more sharply than traffic. The industry and the Board seem to be unanimous in recognizing that steps must be taken to reverse these trends. The question which divides the industry concerns the exact steps which should be taken. We believe that a substantial reduction in airline fares is necessary to correct the industry's economic problems and that fare reductions would be a desirable step in curing the broader national problem of inflation. Thus, we have urged the Board to permit the price mechanism to work by granting to each carrier a great degree of flexibility in establishing promotional - 6 fares responsive to its own system needs. */ At the same time, however, we urge the Board to adhere to its conclusion in Phase 5 of the DPFI that fares designed to favor a particular social group are unjustly discriminatory and unlawful. Less than a month ago the Board reaffirmed that conclusion in rejecting a senior citizen standby fare proposed by Hawaiian Airlines. "The question of fare discrimination was addressed at length in Phase 5 (Discount Fares) of the Domestic Passenger Fare Investigation. The Board noted that the courts have held that factors related to the status of traffic and unrelated to transportation may not be considered in justification of a discriminatory fare, nor is the Board empowered to take into consideration matters involving broad social policies, such as special treatment for any particular age group, whatever its personal views may be on such policies. The Board went on to state that discrimination in favor of young persons could only be justified by substantial overriding considerations involving the sound development of the air transportation system, but that the evidence before it in this regard was insufficient to justify the discrimination inherent in youth and family fares. __/ See the Council's Answer to Complaints in Dockets 27607 and 27610. "Hawaiian has failed to put forth facts here which would justify a departure from the fare-discrimination criteria enunciated in our Phase 5 decision as it relates to fares available to a defined age group, nor is there any reason to believe that there are developmental benefits flowing from the senior citizen fare which would justify their discriminatory aspects. Accordingly, in view of decisions by the Board and the courts, the fares here proposed must be considered to be prima facie unjustly discriminatory." Order 75-3-36 at 1-2 (March 12, 1975) (footnotes omitted). In our view, the same findings should be made with respect to each of TVA's fare proposals. In fact, TWA does not contend that the three fare plans are consistent with the Phase 5 standards on discrimination. Rather, it argues "special circumstances," contending that the airline industry's current economic condition warrants the temporary suspension of those standards. The facts related by TWA justify price reductions. They do not justify discrimination. In our view, there are many alternatives, such as overall fare reductions, excursion fares, and off-peak pricing, which will meet the industry's problems without re-introducing the invidious discrimination so recently abandoned. The '*no-frills" fare proposed by National Airlines, which the Board has permitted to become effective pending investigation, is an example of the sort of creative fare proposal which can be designed to meet the current problem without resort to discrimination. */ __/ See Order 75-3-102 (March 27, 1975). - 8 - ' For these reasons, we support the petitions of Eastern, United, ASTA, NAMBO, and the Department of Transportation and urge the Board to suspend and investigate TWA's fare proposals. Respectfully submitted, George C. Eads Assistant Director for Government Operations and Research UIIMA" C Ulis^Cc*^*^ Vaughn C. Williams General Counsel / J . Michael Roach Assistant General Counsel FOR RELEASE APRIL 3. 1975 TREASURY, EPA AGREE TO ABATE EMISSIONS FROM BUREAU OF ENGRAVING AND PRINTING INCINERATOR The Department of the Treasury and the Environmental Protection Agency have agreed on a plan to abate air pollution emissions from the incinerator operated by Treasuryfs Bureau of Engraving and Printing at 14th and C Streets, S.W., Washington, D.C. The incinerator now is being used to burn various security items, including "old money." Although the incinerator has a maximum capacity of 17,160 pounds per day, the Bureau during the past several years has gradually lessened the emissions by reducing the load to 4,500 pounds per day. The agreement formalizes Treasury's air compliance plan, which includes the construction of mechanical destruction systems to replace the incinerator by June 1, 1976. Meanwhile, the Department will restrict use of the incinerator to three or four days per week and will continue to study alternative methods for disposing of various types of materials. The Department is also exploring changes in the regulations governing the destruction of security paper in order to expedite the adoption of methods of disposal other than incineration. The agreement was signed for Treasury by Warren F. Brecht, Assistant Secretary (Administration). oOo WS-268 Department of theTREASURY VASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 9 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE V April 2, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL AUCTION Tenders for $1,280 million of 52-week Treasury bills to be issued to the public, to be dated April 8, 1975, and to mature April 6, 1976, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: (Excepting 5 tenders totaling $1,420,000) High Low Average Price Discount Rate 93.610 93.358 93.454 6.319% _ 6.569% 6.475% Investment Rate (Equivalent Coupon-Issue Yield) 6.75% 7.03% 6.92% TOTAL TENDERS FROM THE PUBLIC RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS, District Received Accepted Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago . St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco $ 20,800,000 1,784,305,000 21,265,000 23,735,000 1,760,000 3,670,000 203,170,000 14,525,000 10,585,000 6,350,000 1,545,000 113,140,000 $ 10,800,000 1,021,625,000 1,265,000 23,735,000 1,760,000 8,670,000 126,170,000 12,355,000 10,585,000 6,350,000 1,545,000 55,140,000 TOTAL $2,209,850,000 $1,280,000,000 / The $1,2^0,000,000 of accepted tenders includes 83 % of the amount of bills bid for at the low price and $30,735,000 of noncompetitive tenders from the public accepted at the average price. In addition, $924,980,000 of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. EDITORS: The attached testimony being presented before a Congressional subcommittee today by Treasury Secretary William E. Simon is called to your attention less because of its current news value than because of its emphasis on long-range economic trends and the need it expresses to determine priorities in terms of claims against future national output. As Mr. Simon states, it is vital that this process begin "not when the recession is over, not when inflation is under control, and not when the next election is over, but now." OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON PRIORITIES AND ECONOMY IN GOVERNMENT OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Washington, D.C, April 3, 1975, 10:00 A.M., EDST Mr. Chairman and Members of this Subcommittee: These hearings provide a timely and important recognition of the need to carefully consider national economic priorities, and I welcome this opportunity to appear before you. A more thoughtful consideration is certainly required to avoid repetition of the severe economic distortions of the past decade. Your leadership in the Joint Economic Committee has provided a unique forum for such discussions for many years. But the sharp cyclical swings, unprecedented double-digit inflation, unacceptable levels of unemployment and increasing uncertainties about the future adequacy of raw materials and productive capacity have created a real sense of urgency. Any immediate relief resulting from the economic recovery, that now appears to be getting underway, will be only temporary if fiscal and monetary abuses are built into the system causing even more violent booms and busts. The American people must understand the competing demands in making priority decisions as well as the remarkable creativity and productivity of the U.S. economic system when it is allowed to function properly. Your series of thirteen major papers presented to Congress on such diverse subjects as Education, Women's Rights and Opportunities, Civil Rights, Health, Social Security, the Media, Defense, the Environment, Consumer Protection, Government Productivity, Agriculture, Foreign Affairs and Federal Disaster Relief Programs is an impressive effort and I commend you for it. I particularly admire your call for elimination of many obsolete regulatory functions of WS-269 government which are unnecessarily restricting the efficiency of the U.S. economy. But the entire Congress, every Executive agency and the general public must recognize that 2 the ranking of claims against the potential output is now one of our most important economic challenges. We cannot do everything immediately and we must consider the proper allocation of resources and functions between the public and private sectors. I am confident that we can cooperate to make these decisions but we need more effective analysis and planning. My testimony will not focus on the improving prospects for near-term recovery beyond repeating my fundamental concern about avoiding fiscal and monetary excesses during the current transition which would inevitably lead to even more serious economic distortions within a relatively brief period of time. Nor will I discuss current budget and tax issues. Instead, I will limit my brief remarks to three specific points which will affect future national economic priorities: (1) my skepticism about the economic assumptions used in the five-year estimates presented in the President's Fiscal Year 1976 budget, either as a description of the probable economic results or as a proper guideline for national policy; (2) the productive capacity of the U.S. economy which will ultimately determine which priority goals can be met; and (3) the Federal I. role THE FIVE-YEAR BUDGET ESTIMATES Government's in identifying national priorities and necessary policies. The Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 requires a five-year projection of Federal budget outlays and receipts that would result from the continuation of existing and currently proposed programs with adjustments for anticipated population trends and economic conditions. Additional spending programs beyond the existing commitments are not included. Reasonable assumptions about demographic patterns are usually possible but anticipating changing economic conditions has proven to be extremely difficult, if not impossible. Unfortunately, the five-year budget projections are dependent upon several key assumptions about the economy because the budget results are increasingly affected by economic developments. Retirement and other social insurance benefit payments are linked to consumer price changes. Medicare, Medicaid and other transfer payments are also affected by price developments. Numerous entitlement programs, such as unemployment compensation claims, are directly tied to the status of the economy. (••] Federal construction and federally assisted programs respond to economic conditions. Interest on the national debt depends upon the general financial markets. Tax receipts obviously are determined by individual and business incomes. The key economic assumptions underlying the FY 1976 to 1980 estimates have received widespread attention, particularly the pessimistic inflation and unemployment figures. For calendar year 1976 the Consumer Price Index increase was estimated to be 7.8 percent and the unemployment raie forecast remains close to 8 percent. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (Calendar years, dollar amounts in billions] Assumed for purposes of budget estimates 1973 actual Item Gross national product: Current dollars Constant (1958) dollars: 1974 actual 1975 . $1,295 $1, 397 $1,498 Prices (percent change): G N P deflator... Consumer Price Index Unemployment rat • (percent). $839 5.9 $821 -1.2 5.6 6.2 4.9 10.2 11.0 5.6 $794 -3.3 10.8 11.3 8. 1 1976 1977 $1, 686 $1,896 1980 $2,606 $832 4.8 $879 5.6 $1,061 6.5 7.5 7.8 7.9 6.5 6.6 7.5 4.0 4.0 5.5 Sluggish improvement in both measures was assumed but at a very unsatisfactory rate. It is important to note that the figures for calendar years 1975 and 1976 are forecasts of probable economic developments but the longer-term figures for 1977 through 1980 are projections of trends that would be consistent with the general goals of gradually returning to lower levels of inflation and improved employment conditions. I do not believe that the economic assumptions used in preparing the five-year budget estimates are a sound indicator of the likely pattern of inflation and unemployment in the near term or that precise projections can be made for later years. In such a volatile period it is important to maintain perspective rather than frequently shifting policies in response to each new econometric forecast, particularly when the underlying assumptions for such predictions are so uncertain. The record in recent years clearly demonstrates the uncertainties of economic fortcasting using the somewhat mechanical models available. Even short-term forecasts covering only a few months are often wrong and econcmists have difficulty even describing current economic conditions as multiple statistics are reported and 4 subsequently revised. Unfortunately, the methodology of computer forecasts often creates a false impression of accuracy and certainty. I sometimes think that economists use decimal points in their forecasts to prove they have a sense of humor. But the forecasting errors of the past few years have been anything but humorous. The sharp increase in the unemployment rate and the rapid erosion of inflation pressures in recent months indicate that these two key assumptions may already be far off the mark and the figures for subsequent years are even more questionable. Like any other management tool, the questioning process required for preparing an economic forecast is probably more valuable than the resulting estimates. Public officials should never accept such tenuous forecasts as a firm basis for policy decisions, particularly during periods of sharp cyclical swings. Another serious limitation of the economic assumptions presented in the FY 1976 and 1980 budget figures involves the unfortunate tendency of forecasters to give only one estimate. For example, an unemployment rate of 8.1 percent is the forecast for 1975 but no indication of the possible range of results is indicated. It is obvious that the actual figure could fall somewhere within a broad or narrow range on either side of the published estimate. For many policy decisions it is more important to know the range of possible results and their probabilities than it is to have a single estimate. In even the most simple economic forecast a series of estimates about investment and savings decisions in each sector of our $1-1/2 trillion economy must be made. In estimating unemployment figures additional decisions about the growth of the labor force, job mobility and other demographic variables are required. We too often receive false signals because only the single estimates are presented and a misleading consensus is implied because the range of possible results and their probabilities are not discussed. There is also the familiar problem that where there are two economists there will be three opinions expressed and the rate increases geometrically for other groupings. But even if the budget's economic estimates are a reasonable approximation of the future economy we should not passively accept those results. As Secretary of the Treasury and Chairman of the Economic Policy Board, I am not satisfied with the projected levels of inflation or unemployment. (t The challenge of economic leadership is to provide a more stable economic environment in which the private sector recovery can accelerate. Such improvement requires a restoration of consumer and business confidence. Expedient actions designed for short-term political benefit will not restore that confidence. Therefore, there is an important role for the government in identifying national goals and establishing more stable fiscal and monetary policies. I believe we can do better than the economic assumptions suggest. But we must first demonstrate that government decisions will emphasize economic goals that stretch beyond the next scheduled election; that our future productivity and employment opportunities require increased rates of capital investment; and, that vigorous competition within the framework of a free enterprise economy is still the best approach to maintaining the strength and creativity of the United States. II. NATIONAL ECONOMIC PRIORITIES We still have the premier economy of the world and rapid, though somewhat erratic, economic growth continues to occur. But Americans recognize that output gains and high per capita incomes do not instantaneously solve all of our national problems. When we apply too much pressure on our system to produce goods and services, the inevitable result is inflation and shortages. If increased government spending exceeds the resources available and the monetary system finances the resulting deficits, the economy eventually becomes overheated. The underlying growth trends of the U.S. economy will provide sustained progress but we cannot realistically expect to satisfy every new claim. While the need for responsible demand management is generally accepted, each special interest group assumes that its claim is unique and deserves satisfaction. Unfortunately, we have clearly forced the level of government spending beyond the willingness of society to pay for the programs provided. At the conclusion of FY 1975 we will record our fourteenth Federal budget deficit in the past fifteen years and the fortieth deficit in the past fortyeight years. And the budget outlook over the next few years is clearly a matter of great concern. In trying to respond to so many diverse interest groups the Federal Government has frequently distorted the efficiency and stability of the entire economic system and has created an accelerating momentum of outlays which has eroded our fiscal flexibility in responding to changing priorities and current problems. 6 The Federal Government obviously has a fundamental role in decisions about the uses of the national output. Unfortunately, it is widely believed that the government's role is limited to simply balancing the Federal budget over time. In reality, Federal decisions influence the entire economy through direct purchases, taxes, transfer payments and a variety of research and grant programs which serve as seed capital for determining private sector activities. Total government spending now comprises over one-third of the total economy and the upward trend may accelerate if the growth of transfer payments continues to increase rapidly (see Chart 1). In describing the pervasive influence of Federal decisions in allocating available resources among competing claims I am not suggesting that we should have a controlled economic system. To the contrary, I am strongly committed to the private sector as the superior source of economic progress and my experiences in government have reinforced those beliefs. But we must recognize the major impact of government decisions on every sector of our economy. Unfortunately, debates about setting national economic policies are too often limited to arguments about the allocation of functions between the public and private sectors. In considering national economic priorities a much broader perspective is required. The total productive capability of the entire economy must be first identified before attempting to rank and select specific claims against that potential output. Estimating the total economic capacity of the system avoids the simplistic arguments that additional government programs can be continuously created to meet every claim by simply shifting resources from the private to the public sector. Adding new government commitments is not feasible if the total production capacity of the economy is exceeded. This guideline has been frequently violated as total demand has increased too rapidly for the economic system to absorb. When this happens the economy begins a boom and bust sequence with severe inflation, and unemployment distortions, such as occurred in the late 1960's and again during the last three years. The inflation and unemployment caused by these wide swings disrupts the entire U.S. economy and international stability. Unfortunately, the overheating process has often been caused by excessive rates of increase in government spending. The results of such excesses persist long after economic conditions change because spending programs are rarely eliminated. y A study of total capacity was prepared in 1969 by the Council of Economic Advisers and published in the Economic Report of the President for 1970. The pattern of real increases in Gross National Product was projected for 1976 using trend estimates of the growth of the labor force, national productivity gains, expected unemployment and the annual average number of hours worked per person. The existing claims against the projected GNP were then identified, including personal consumption, business investment, housing and government spending. All of these claims were adjusted to reflect demographic and economic assumptions. Federal spending was projected to include only existing programs plus new proposals for revenue sharing, welfare reform and pollution abatement outlays. As summarized in Table 1, the fulfillment of the total claims already identified in 1969 required a relatively rapid expansion of output to keep pace: "...the existing, visible, and strongly supported claims already exhaust the national output for some years ahead. This is not to say that no other claims included in these calculations should have preference over claims not recognized here. The basic point is that if other claims are to be satisfied some of those recognized here will have to be sacrificed." Economic Report of the President, 1970, p. 80. These projections in the Council of Economic Advisers analysis are hypothetical estimates based on somewhat arbitrary assumptions, and actual results have varied during the intervening years since the study was completed. Nevertheless, a crucial point is evident: decisions on national economic priorities must reflect total output potential and all existing claims rather than focusing only on Federal budget outlays. Whenever resources are limited recommmendations to add new government programs must consider the prospective impact on the private sector. In short, the creation of new priorities, or expansion of existing commitments at an accelerated rate, will require giving up or curtailing some existing claim. Once it is recognized that the potential GNP has already been committed to existing claims the consideration of new outlay requests should become more realistic. Spending decisions should then concentrate on realigning claims rather than merely adding additional commitments to satisfy diverse interest groups. This point is particularly important in considering the massive amounts of private capital investments required to 8 meet future capacity and employment needs. Instead of reducing capital investment to release resources for government social programs, the amount of private outlays must be accelerated. This basic requirement means that government spending and tax policies should be directed toward creating a more balanced budget so that the future flow of savings is not diverted away from private investment into the financing of large government deficits. III. GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND PRIORITIES Although the projections of potential output and claims summarized in Table 1 are necessarily based on many arbitrary assumptions, the framework of analysis suggested is useful in considering national economic priorities for at least three important reasons: 1. Existing claims on the potential national output, even assuming rapid growth, tend to exhaust the probable national output into the future. If new commitments are to be made, then existing claims must be eliminated or curtailed. 2. The Federal Government's fiscal policies will directly affect which claims are satisfied through the influence of its spending and tax policies. 3. The prospective level of private capital investment will be directly affected by the pattern of government spending and deficits. The traditional view of the government's role has been that a balanced budget is a symbol of fiscal responsibility. Accordingly, when deficits occurred, the government was expected to restrict outlays and/or increase taxes. However, it is obvious that as a result of economic fluctuations the surplus or deficit for any specific year will inevitably be different from the arbitrary target. The "annual balance" rule eventually was replaced by the concept that balance should occur over the course of the business cycle so that fiscal policies could be used to stimulate the economy despite any resulting deficits. The relatively unknown corollary of this "pump-priming" policy, of course, is that budget surpluses should occur during periods of above-average economic activity to create the desired balance over time. Unfortunately, the actual pattern has been completely asymmetrical with deficits occurring almost every year (see Table 2). While some > economists have tried to justify this pattern, I believe that by concentrating on short-term economic stabilization goals rather than long-term allocation of resources our fiscal policies have become a disruptive force. Too often fiscal policies have lagged economic developments so that the desired stimulus or restraint typically arrives long after the business cycle changes. The "emergency" spending programs created to pull the economy out of a recession often add to the subsequent overheating of the economy and create additional commitments that last far into the future. A corresponding reduction of these programs during periods of economic expansion is unusual. The result is an escalating pattern of government programs, which are oriented toward the problems of the past and restrict the government's ability to respond to new national priorities or current problems. Finally, the "full employment" budget was introduced to correct the asymmetrical pattern of deficits, but this tool has not provided the necessary discipline. All of these approaches have failed because the Executive Office and Congress have been unwilling to shift their attention to longer-term goals or to face up to the agonizing experience of saying no. The most recent effort to regain control of the fiscal process is the creation of the Congressional Budget Committees. This action properly recognizes that the only meaningful budget control consists of self-discipline. Quantitative guidelines have never survived the pressures of political elections or powerful pressure groups. It is ironic that we have waited two hundred years to adopt a Congressional procedure for considering individual spending programs as parts of a total budget only to begin the process during an unusually chaotic period of economic change. But this approach offers the only real promise of developing Congressional discipline in considering the total economic importance of the Federal budget. The next step is to expand the process to consider longer-term goals and finally to relate the government spending actions to the total capacity of the economic system as suggested earlier in my testimony. When this entire cycle is completed we will recognize that individual pieces of legislation cannot be simply added without considering what existing claims need to be eliminated or curtailed. The economic discipline of allocating scarce resources to different claims according to national priorities can be ignored for brief periods, but the economic distortions of the past decade indicate that this is a costly decision. 10 IV. SUMMARY My experiences in government service convince me that we must become much more rigorous in evaluating new claims against our future national output. The economy will continue to grow and meet many of our needs, but we cannot realistically expect to satisfy every competing claim. Some will have to be eliminated or restrained. Accordingly, in assessing the growth of Federal spending, we must recognize the realistic growth capabilities ot the total economy. In recent years, we have lacked the discipline to maintain the necessary balance. £ro"L . nl calendar year 1966 through calendar year 1975 the GNP w i n have increased from $749.9 billion to approximately $1.^ trillion, a gain of 100 percent. From fiscal year 1966 through fiscal year 1976 Federal budget outlays will jump from $134.7 billion to at least $349-0 billion, an increase of 160 percent. Some would welcome this acceleration ot Federal spending because they favor a different approach to allocating functions between the private and public sectors. I strongly disagree because I believe the private enterprise system is the world's most efficient approach to increasing output and preserving personal freedoms. But whichever course our mixed economy takes in the coming years, the need for a more rigorous consideration of national economic priorities is necessary. It is vital that the process of sorting out of national economic priorities begin now -- not when the recession is over, not when inflation is under control, and not when the next election is over, but now. Twenty years ago it was apparent in this country that we were heading for an energy crisis. One report after another confirmed it, but instead of providing wisely for the future, we insisted upon living-foolishly for the moment. Now we are beginning to pay the price, and we will go on paying for some time to come. In the same way, we have seriously abused the private enterprise system and have so encouraged the enormous growth of government that we are heading toward another serious crisis. The United States is rapidly coming to a crossroads where we must decide what type of economic system we want. I hope that we will continue to emphasize the free enterprise system in America and roll back the forces of restrictive government. The choice is oOo one that our generation is called upon to make. Unless we act soon, the decision will be made Thank for us you. by default. CHART Government as a Percent of GNP, 1929-2000 1 Percent 60 rA 56% / / 50 / B / 45% / y y 40 s y ' ** 30 1929-1974 growth rate. Based on 1955-75 trends of expenditure components. 20 10 cal I I I tI t I I I f I > If I I I I I 1I I I i I I I I I I I t t I I . fi t I I t i I I I i I i I , i , ,J , j > •25 30 Office of the Secretary of the Treasury Office of Financial Analvsis 40 •45 '50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 t '80 I , I , "i I , , f f | , '85 '90 t *S5 . . | t ,. , 2000 1TABLE 1 REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, 1955, 1966, and 1969 - PROJECTIONS FOR 1975-76, Actuals T9T^ 1966 T9~69 Projections j 1973" Gross national product available, Billions of dollars, 1969 prices 931.4 1,199 845.5 569.0 Claims on available GNP 569.0 845.5 931.4 1,188 69.8 53.8 344.3 96.9 88.3 94.4 519.2 137.5 101.3 110.8 577.5 139.8 83 140 788 192 55.1 34.5 7.3 92.0 29.4 16.1 99.3 32.0 8.5 128 52 12 Net exports of goods and services, 4.2 6.1 1.9 5 Unallocated resources .0 .0 .0 11 5.6 -.2 9.3 25 2,637 2,842 3,529 Federal Government purchases State and local government purchases.. Personal consumption expenditures Gross Private domestic investment Business fixed investment , Residential structures , Change in business inventories. Addendum: Federal surplus or deficit (-), national income accounts basis Per capita personal consumption expenditures , 2,083 Percent of total GNP available Gross national product available, 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 100 Claims on available GNP 100.0 100.0 100.0 99 99 Federal Government purchases State and local government purchases. Personal consumption expenditures.... Gross private domestic investment.. 12.3 9.5 60.5 17.0 10.4 11.2 61.4 16.3 10.9 11.9 62.0 15.0 7 12 34 16 7 12 64 16 Business fixed investment Residential structures Change in business inventories, 9.7 6.1 1.3 10.9 3.5 1.9 10.7 3.4 .9 11 4 1 11 * 4 1 Net exports of goods and services, Unallocated resources.. .8 .0 .7 .0 .2 .0 (1) 1 (1) 2 1.0 .0 1.0 2 3 Addendum: Federal surplus or deficit (-), national income accounts basis.. __/ Less than 0.5 percent. Note- - p r o i „ f expenditures (See Table 27) an* ^ 1 ? e . c t _ 1 l o n s a r e based on projected Federal <bee lable 27) and their influence on various components of GNP. 13 TABLE 2 FEDERAL BUDGETS CHANGES IN THE UNIFIED BUDGET OUTLAYS ' ' ' • • r ' • — BY FISCAL YEAR, 1961-1976 (dollars in billions) Fiscal Year Over " Preceding Year * Federal Outlays Dollar Increase Percentage Increase Surplus or Deficit 1961 $ 97.8 $ 5.6 6.1 -3.4 1962 106.8 9.0 9.2 -7.1 1963 111.3 4.5 4.2 -4.8 1964 118.6 7.3 6.1 -5.9 1965 118.4 -0.2 — -1.6 1966 134.7 16.3 13.8 -3.8 1967 158.3 23.6 17.5 -8.7 1968 178.8 20.5 13.0 -25.2 1969 184.5 5.7 3.2 +3.2 1970 196.6 12.1 6.6 -2.8 1971 211.4 14.8 7.5 -23.0 1972 231.9 20.5 9.7 -23.2 1973 246.5 14.6 6.3 -14.3 1974 268.4 21.9 8.8 -3.5 1975 (est.)* 313.4 45.0 16.8 -34.7 ' 1976 (est.)* 349.4 36.0 11.5 -51.9 Last official budget estimates published February 3, 1975. Subsequent decisions have increased the probable level of outlays and the size of the deficit. DepartmentoftheTREASURY ICE OF REVENUE SHARING TELEPHONE 634-5248 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20226 9 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Friday, April 4, 1975 Fifty states, the District of Columbia and 37,199 local governments were sent checks totalling $1,523,731,779 by the Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing today, in the eleventh regular distribution of revenue sharing funds since the first payments were made in December 1972. Today's payment brings to $18.9 billion the amount of money that has been returned to states and local governments since general revenue sharing was authorized by the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 (P.L. 92-512). The Act provides for the distribution of $30.2 billion to states, counties, cities, towns, townships, Indian tribes and Alaskan native villages over a five year period that ends with December 1976. President Ford has announced his intention to seek extension of the program past 1976. Funds totalling $39,891,289 were not paid to 605 governments today for a variety of reasons. A few small places elected to waive participation in the program. Because of adjustments resulting from recent data improvements, some governments were found already to have received as much as or more money than they were entitled to receive in the fiscal current year. Some govern- ments still have not filed two simple report forms that were requi -more- -2- to be returned to the Office of Revenue Sharing in the summer of 1974. Of the funds being held, by far the largest single amount is due the City of Chicago. Chicago's funds are being withheld pursuant to an order issued by the U. S. District Court in Washington, D. C. in December 1974. The City of Chicago was found to have been using discriminatory procedures to hire and promote members of the city Police Department, where general revenue sharing funds have been spent. The Office of Revenue Sharing is holding two quarterly payments due Chicago: January 1975: $19.2 million; and April 1975: $38.4 million. $19.2 million; for a total of Chicago is the only government whose shared revenues are being withheld pursuant to court order. General revenue sharing funds are distributed quarterly, in October, January, April and July of each year. The money is allocated by formula, using data supplied primarily by the U. S. Bureau of the Census that has been reviewed by the recipient governments themselves. Later this month, the Office of Revenue Sharing will announce allocations of funds for federal fiscal year 1976. ### ^kWaWamSSkWkWkW DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 3, 1975 BRADFIELD PRESENTED AWARD BY SECRETARY SIMON ' ON RESIGNATION AS ASSISTANT GENERAL COUNSEL Secretary of the Treasury William E.' Simon last night, expressing deep regret at the resignation of Michael Bradfield' from Treasury after more than 13 years of service, presented him the Department's Exceptional Service Award in recognition of "brilliant accomplishments and extraordinary legal skills." Bradfield had been Assistant General Counsel for International Affairs since 1968. In presenting the award, Secretary Simon said Bradfield's energy and creative talent would be sorely missed in Treasury. The Assistant General Counsel is leaving Treasury to enter private practice with the law firm of Cole, Corette and Bradfield. Bradfield participated in a major way in such important developments as the establishment of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights, the readjustment of exchange rates during 1971-1973, the development of the Trade Act of 1974, reform of international monetary rules, the settlement of difficult investment dispute matters, and the U.S. participation in the international development lending institutions. Most recently, he had a major responsibility in the drafting of the Financial Support Fund Agreement of the OECD cooperating nations that will be signed April 9 in Paris. Bradfield came to the Treasury in 1962 as an AttorneyAdviser. In July 1968, he was promoted to Assistant General Counsel for International Affairs. In this capacity, he was responsible for advising the Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs, and the Assistant Secretaries of the Treasury on international monetary problems, balance of payments, trade matters and development assistance, including United States participation in the international development banks. He participated in many international negotiations and meetings, such as the annual meetings of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, and InterAmerican Development Bank. WS-270 (Over) - 2A graduate of Union College, and Columbia University School of Law, Bradfield was the recipient of Treasury s Meritorious Service Award in 1966, and, in 1974, received a Special Citation from Secretary Shultz for "extraordinary competence" in the successful conclusion of the negotiations with the Government of Peru on investment disputes. He also received the General Counsel's award in recognition of "innovative and brilliant" legal achievements. Bradfield and his wife, the former Inai Yuh, have two sons, and resides at Castlegate, Woodbine Street, Chevy Chase, Maryland. oOo EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE. N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 y / y A n P 'l 2, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR CORRESPONDENTS: For information call: (202) 456-6757 Attached is a copy of a letter sent to the Federal Trade Commissioners from Albert Rees, Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability expressing concern about the Federal Trade Commission's clarification of the legality of backhaul allowances under the Robinson-Patman Act. o 0 o Attachment CWPS-36 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 E Z April 1, 1975 Dear I am writing to express my concern about the Federal Trade Commission's clarification, in a letter to the Consumers' Union issued on March 19, 197 5, and publicly released on March 28, of the legality under Section 2(a) of the Robinson-Patman Act of backhaul allowances offered by a seller, who otherwise offers a uniform zone-delivered price, to customers who provide their own transportation for goods purchased at the seller's warehouse. In my view, it is important that the Commission develop a clear policy to encourage backhaul practices, in order to alleviate the fuel waste and other costs that result from unused backhaul capacity. However, the Commission's March 19 clarification is not such a policy, and may indeed further discourage backhaul. The March 19 letter requires that the f.o.b. price offered to all backhauling customers be "uniform" -- that is, be the same dollar amount in each case. It does not permit a seller to offer backhaul allowances that vary in accordance with the cost of transportation to each customer. This requirement of uniformity places a substantial restraint upon the development of backhauling - - a restraint not mandated by the Robinson-Patman Act, which permits a seller to offer different prices where justified by different costs. Under the Commission's March 19 letter, the uniform f.o.b. price offered to customers who backhaul is not likely to be lower than the seller's uniform zone-delivered price minus his average transportation cost for that zone. Sellers, at least those with substantial dominance in their product markets, cannot be expected to offer a uniform allowance in excess of their average costs. This allowance, however, will only permit backhauling by customers who can provide their own transportation at less than or equal to the seller's average cost. Customers far away enough to incur greater transportation costs will not be able to afford to make use of their empty backhaul capacity. In my view, this status will persist over time. 2 „ iv ,--- KV a filer's more distant customers can Backhauling by a seller s more allowmost simply be encouraged by a seller s otte n t0 ^partLular^u t mer.* ^thluch5an allowance, any customer who'can ship as efficiently as these er would be encouraged to use his empty truck capacity to do so. wniie different customers would be paying different prices for the same goods, the difference would only " f J « c ! * ^ £ ^ ? " ! r £ n the seller's actual transportation costs to those customers. While Section 2(a) of the Robinson-Patman Act generally prohibits price differentials for a single product, it expressly permits "differentials which make only due allowance for differences in the cost of manufacture, sale, or delivery . . . ." This language can certainly be mterpreted to refer to such price differentials as would result from a backhaul allowance measured by actual transportation costs. Additional discriminations may be inherent in the uniform zone-delivered price from which such a backhaul allowance would be deducted. However, that fact makes it no less true that the price differentials resulting from an actual cost allowance would be justified by the differences in the seller's transportation costs to different customers. Uncertainty about the legality of actual-cost backhaul allowances has significantly impeded the negotiation of backhaul agreements. The Commission's disapproval of actual cost allowances in its March 19 letter will of course further discourage backhaul practices by customers far enough away from a supplier to exceed his average transportation costs. The encouragement of backhaul, on the other hand, would not only save fuel and other costs as noted above, but would also increase competition among suppliers and customers with respect to the transportation of purchased goods. I therefore recommend that the Commission issue a statement that Section 2(a) of the Robinson-Patman Act permits actual cost backhaul allowances. Sincerely, Albert Rees Director Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Transcript Number of Pages Removed: 1 Author(s): Title: NBC Nightly News, "Brinkley's Journal" Date: 1975-04-02 Journal: Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Transcript Number of Pages Removed: 1 Author(s): Title: Paul Harvey: News and Commentary, "Secretary Simon Seconds Motion" Date: 1975-04-02 Journal: Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Transcript Number of Pages Removed: 1 Author(s): Title: NBC Nightly News Interview with Secretary Simon Date: 1975-04-03 Journal: Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Transcript Number of Pages Removed: 1 Author(s): Title: CBS Evening News Quotes Secretary Simon Date: 1975-04-03 Journal: Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY V 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, April 3, 1975 FOR INFORMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY TO HOLD CONFERENCE ON CONCENTRATION, ADMINISTERED PRICES, AND INFLATION Albert Rees, Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability, announced today that the Council will examine "Concentration, Administered Prices, and Inflation" in a conference with an outside group of economists to be held on April 14 from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. in Room 2010, New Executive Office Building. The meeting, which is the first in a possible series of such meetings on various topics of interest, will be an examination and discussion of current empirical research and theories regarding the effect, if any, of administered pricing in concentrated industries on inflation. In announcing the conference, Mr, Rees said, "There have been a lot of allegations about administered prices in the past few months. Therefore, we think it will be useful to pull together the current research on this topic so that we can offer a more informed analysis of various proposals, ideas, and opinions on the subject." The meeting will be open. Seating capacity is limited, however, and anyone wishing to attend the conference as an observer should call the Council at 456-6757 by Thursday, April 10 for clearance. Attached is a list of participants and an agenda for the meeting. o 0 o Attachments: 2 CWPS-37 CONFERENCE ON CONCENTRATION, ADMINISTERED PRICES, AND INFLATION ^X^ / Participants* Barrett, Nancy - American University Blair, John - University of South Florida Cagan, Philip - National Bureau of Economic Research Collery, Arnold - Council on Wage and Price Stability Fischer, Stanley - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Hay, George - Department of Justice Lanzilotti, Robert - University of Florida Licari, Joseph A, - Occidental College Means, Gardiner Mueller, W.F. - University of Wisconsin Quails, PT David - Federal Trade Commission Rees, Albert - Council on Wage and Price Stability Scherer, Frederic M., - Federal Trade Commission Thorp, Willard Weston, J. Fred - UCLA *Acceptances as of April 3 CONFERENCE ON CONCENTRATION, ADMINISTERED PRICES, AND INFLATION Tentative Agenda 9:30 a.m. Welcoming Remarks by Albert Rees, Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability 9:40 a.m. Opening Remarks 10:00 a.m. Presentation of Previously Unpublished Empirical Research 11:30 a.m. Break for Lunch 1:00 p.m. General Discussion 4:00 p.m. End of Conference Contact: Linda Potts 964-2951 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 4, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES LOCK-IN AMPLIFIERS AND PARTS THEREOF FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM ARE BEING SOLD AT LESS THAN FAIR VALUE The Treasury Department announced today that lock-in amplifiers and parts thereof from the United Kingdom are being, or are likely to be, sold at less than fair value within the meaning of the Antidumping Act of 1921, as amended. Notice of the determination will be published in the Federal Register of April 7, 1975. The case will now be referred to the International Trade Commission for a determination as to whether an American industry is being, or is likely to be, injured. In the event of an affirmative determination, dumping duties will be assessed on all entries of lock-in amplifiers and parts thereof from the United Kingdom which have not been appraised and on which dumping margins exist. A notice of "Withholding of Appraisement", published in the Federal Register of January 6, 1975, stated that there was reasonable cause to believe or suspect that there were sales at less than fair value. Pursuant to this notice, interested persons were afforded the opportunity to present oral and written views prior to the final determination in this case. During the period January 1973 through December 1974, imports of the subject merchandise from the United Kingdom were valued at approximately $40,000. # # # DtpartmtntolthtTREASURV WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 | TELEPHONE WO4-2041 99 > i 7T Jack Plum 964-2615 April 4, 1975 SECRETARY SIMON HEADS U. S. DELEGATION TO FRANCE, U.S.S.R., INDIA, SRI LANKA, PHILIPPINES FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon will head a United States delegation to France, the U.S.S.R., India, Sri Lanka (Ceylon), and the Philippines, beginning in Paris April 8 and 9 for the signing of the OECD Financial Support Agreement, and ending April 25 at the Eighth Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Manila. The Financial Support Agreement will establish a financial "safety net" among the industrial member nations of OECD cooperating in energy and general economic policies. Following signing of the agreement by Secretary Simon, he will leave for Moscow for the Fifth Session of the Joint U.S.-U.S.S.R. Commercial Commission. The Session, which takes place April 10 and 11, will review recent developments in United States-Soviet trade relations, and exchange views on prospects for further development of trade and economic cooperation. Secretary Simon and Nik olay S. Patolichev, of Foreign Trade, are Soviet Co-Cha Minister members of the U.S. delegati irmen of the Commission. Other John K. Tabor, Acting Secret on taking part in the meeting are Under Secretary of the Treas ary of Commerce; Jack F. Bennett, Leigh, Legal Adviser of the Worthington, Deputy Assistan ury for Monetary Affairs; Monroe Trade and Raw Materials Poli Department of State; Howard L. Assistant Secretary of Comme t Secretary of the Treasury for Biller, Deputy Assistant Sec cy; Arthur T. Downey, Deputy Affairs and Business Activit rce for East-West Trade, and Joel W. retary of State for Commercial ies. The Joint Commission, founded at the Moscow Summit Meeting of May 1972, meets at least once yearly, alternately in Washington and Moscow. The Fourth Session took place last May in Washington. The Simon delegation, as guests of Minister Patolichev, will visit other parts of the Soviet Union, including Kiev, Tashkent, and Samarkand, after which representatives of the State and Commerce Departments will return to the United States, (OVER) WS-271 and the Treasury group continue to New Delhi, departing the U.S.S.R. April 15. - 2Secretary Simon's visit to India and Sri Lanka is at the invitation of the Finance Ministers of those two countries, and in his capacity as U.S. Governor to the various international financial institutions, including the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. He is also one of 20 representatives of the Ministerial Development Committee, associated with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The Development Committee has decided to give priority to the poorer countries most seriously affected by the quadrupling of oil prices. This committee also is concerned with access to capital markets and certain aspects of the world food supply. India is the largest of such countries, with a population of 600 million and per capita income of about $100. Sri Lanka is one of the smaller of the poor countries most seriously affected by the oil crisis. While in these countries, the Secretary will review and inspect projects being financed or under study for financing by the international financial institutions, including the Asian Development Bank, to which the United States is a large contributor. He also will have the opportunity to discuss economic matters with the finance ministers of the two countries. The Simon party leaves New Delhi for Bombay April 18, where the Secretary will address the Indo-U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The following day the delegation goes to Madras to see first hand another important segment of the varied Indian economy. The Secretary, spending one day in Colombo (Sri Lanka) April 21, with senior government finance officials, leaves there for Manila to take part April 24 and 25 in the Eighth Annual Meeting oi the Asian Development Bank. In addition to reviewing the Bank's activities and policies, and becoming better acquainted with the problems of the 27 developing Asian countries to be represented at the meeting, the secretary will discuss development issues with financial rn«i C -K%°5 2 ^ ? r ??° r c o u n t r i e s The United States has already contributed $291 million to the Asian Development Bank, and the U.S. Congress recently appropriated another $74 million lading opa:raStions?eSSi0nal U°W oOo interest > ™d binary capital Department of theTREASURY D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 April 7, 1975 EDITORS: The enclosed speech delivered today by Treasury Secretary William E. Simon may be of extra press interest. In addressing the American Newspaper Publishers Association in New Orleans, Mr. Simon discusses current economic issues in relationship to the reporting of these developments to the public. OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS WS-272 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY ADDRESS OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE AMERICAN NEWSPAPER PUBLISHERS NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA, APRIL 7, 1975 I certainly welcome this opportunity to speak before such a distinguished gathering of American newspaper publishers. Over the past two years, I have had the pleasure of working closely with many of your reporters and editors -first on the energy crisis and now on our economic problems -and I have gained a much keener appreciation of the influence that your publications have upon our national life. I might add that through my associations with you and members of your staffs, I have also had the good fortune of establishing many new friendships -- one of the greatest rewards of my career in public office. I came to Washington with the general notion that newspapers tell their readers what policy decisions have been made and then report on the impact of those decisions. As I have learned, however, news reports also play a major role in forming the policies themselves. Every public official soon finds that what he says is often less important than what the newspapers say that he says. Policies are often shaped so that they can be clearly communicated and will receive maximum attention in the press. And the heavy pressures of press deadlines often determine the timing and manner of policy announcements. In view of this influence and the valuable educational role that the press can play, I thought it might be helpful today to turn the magnifying glass around for a few moments. For the last several months, your newspapers have had it trained on the nation's economy, probing to see how much life it has left. This afternoon, I would like to devote part of my talk to the press itself, addressing in broad terms the state of reporting on the economy and suggesting ways that all of us might help to strengthen public understanding of the crucial issues now at stake. WS -273 - 2This is an incendiary subject, and I want to avoid lighting any fuses. I have no intention of infringing upon your freedoms nor in casting stones. We have had enough of that already. For over a decade, we have witnessed a perilous decline in public confidence in all ot our major institutions, including the press. America cannot be a happy, prosperous nation nor can we be an effective torce for world peace if we are torn by bitter, internal divisions. In trying to improve public understanding of the economy, then, let us not try to tear each other down but to build up this great country again. Let us respect each other's independence, but let us also find ways of working together to achieve our goals. I am often frustrated, and I think you are often frustrated in the effort to enlighten the public about the true nature of our economic difficulties and the choices we face for the future. You want to do your job right, just as I do, in a way that avoids public confusion and mistaken policies. Yet your reporters and editorial writers must necessarily jump from crisis to crisis, from one complex subject to the next with little time or space for deep analysis and often, with little prior knowledge of the subject. The inevitable result is that a subject like the economy, which is inherently complex and can be dull, is frequently sensationalized. And too often, as Senator Fulbright remarked, reporters show more interest in the singer than in the song. How, then, can we do better justice to the problems of economic reporting? An initial point upon which all of us would agree, I think, is that the major economics writers have become much better acquainted with their subject. There was a time not long ago when Gardner Ackley, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Johnson, wished that every economics reporter could measure up to two standards: -- First, that he had taken an introductory course in economics; and, -- Second, that he had passed it. Reviewing the work of the major writers who cover the h ^ T C S v T - l n W a s h i n g t o n > I can tell you that there has n k d improvement in the past year. The good journalists Ta?" f a ry g00d " ! I! ^Y?. . ' P^sessing a solid grasp of economic issues ana suDLiety 37 Television networks are also making notable progress in their economic coverage, especially public television. Economic developments often lend themselves more easily to print than to electronic journalism, but the improvements that the networks have made by bolstering their economic staffs make it clear that television converagecan become more effective. Indeed, while the path of economic journalism in newspapers, radio and television has been steadily upwards, I \think all of us would also agree that we are still far from the peak. Time Magazine, in a recent assessment, said that: "since events pushed inflation and recession to Page One and the top of TV news programs, it has become painfully apparent that American journalism, by and large, provides dismal coverage of the Dismal Science." That judgment is rather harsh, but it has a ring of truth that should jar us all. The steps that might be taken to improve the quality of your writing staffs are obviously a matter for you to decide. You might want to consider additional schooling for some of your writers. In my home state, for instance, Princeton University with the help of the Alfred Sloan Foundation has just set up a fellowship program for economic journalists. You also might want to consider setting up special training sessions for journalists, similar to those now held by the Washington Journalism Center in Washington. You might want to open up the "op-ed" pages of your newspaper to more economics writers or to guest columnists, in the way that Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal have done so successfully. Or you might want to consider ways that the wire services -- the AP the UPI, Dow Jones and Reuters -- can supplement their present news stories on the economy with more in-depth analysis of the economy. Whatever you decide, I want to make it clear that we at the Treasury Department and elsewhere in government are anxious to be as helpful to you as possible. We would welcome your suggestions on how we might assist you so that you can do a better job. We have a firm policy at the Treasury Department that everyone -from the top down -- should be fully responsive to requests from the press, and I pledge to you that we will continue to follow that policy to the hilt. - 4 Evaluating Economic News Another question you face is how to improve your evaluation of the news itself. One concern shared by many men and women in public life is that economic reporters are highly accurate in reporting the latest economic statistics -- wholesale price*, unemployment, and the like -- but they have considerable difficulty in exploring beneath the surface and explaining their real meaning. Let me give you one example: corporate profits. Almost every time a major corporation reports high profit levels, the story hits the front page. If profits drop, that s a story for the financial section. And because of inflation, many corporations do show higher profits even though their real earnings are declining. The result is that over time the American public has gained a very distorted view of the corporate profit picture. A few years ago, a poll showed that most people thought corporations reaped a profit of 28 cents on every dollar of sales; in actuality, profits are only about 5 cents on the dollar. Looking at the past decade, in fact, there has been a dramatic decline in corporate profits, and the implications of this for the future capital investment is one of the most under-reported stories of our time. The high profits we often read about are an optical illusion created by the interplay of outmoded accounting practices and inflation. When those effects arc removed, the facts show that after-tax profits have dropped by 50 percent since 1965. Last year, undistributed corporate profits -- the money left for investment in expanded plant and equipment and the creation of new jobs -- wa.s a minus $16 billion. Earnings fell that far short of covering normal depreciation of plant and equipment. It is not unfair to say that this country has been and is today in a serious profits depression. Yet the American people do not understand this, and until they do understand it, we face the prospect of still more anii-business legislation, and we will find it increasingly difficult to rebuild the foundations of our private enterprise system. There are many other examples of statistics which are not well understood. For instance, the declining value of the dollar relative to the German mark and the Swiss fra^c h^ s shaken s^me observers, when in reality, measured on a trade weighted average basis against all OECD currencies, the dollar stands approximately where it did two years ago. Or consider our balance of payments. E f Three weeks ago, considerable attention was given to a government press release indicating that the deficit in our balance on current and long-term capital transactions had risen to $10.6 billion in 1974 from a $1 billion deficit in 1973. But this is a highly misleading interpretation of the true balance, because this particular statistic excludes most of the identified investments in the U.S. by the oil-exporting nations -- investments which totaled about $11 billion in 1974. By including those investments, you can see that our balance of payments picture would not appear to be so bleak and would not have attracted such dire headlines. What this suggests is that all of us -- reporters and public officials alike -- have a responsibility not just to report the statistics but to explain them carefully and honestly. Within the government, we are trying to improve our statistical reporting services so that the numbers are more meaningful. We have also taken steps to insulate the professional statisticians, freeing them from political pressures and giving the public greater confidence in the integrity of our measurements. We are mindful of the fact that in the past the government has been frequently accused of applying a liberal dose of optimism to every set of new statistics. George Meany once said that if the government were reporting the sinking of the Titanic, the announcement would read something like this: "The Titanic has stopped in midocean to take on a new supply of ice." Today all major economic statistics are reported straight forwardly, and they are so well protected from leaks to favored newspapers that not even a Cabinet member is allowed to see them before they are given to all members of the press. While I agree with the need for honesty and candor, there is also such a thing as carrying statistics too far in the other direction. Earlier this year the Administration published some bleak economic projections for the next five years which were simple arithmetic extrapolations but were taken more seriously than they were intended and as a result, caused a certain amount of alarm across the country as well as in Congress. Since that time, I have consistently argued that those numbers should be regarded with a high degree of skepticism --no one can accurately predict where our economy will be three to four years from now -- and they do not provide a sound basis for legislative policy-making. Reporting Long-Term Economic Trends Still a more serious problem than interpreting statistics arises, I think, in evaluating the long-range trends within understand press our economy. has done how Ia our must particularly economy tell you hasgood that fallen job I dointo in not helping our think current that the public mess. the - 6 I am not sure whv. Perhaps the economy has been regarded as hopelessly complex or dull for newspaper readers, so that economic analysis has been ignored by many newspapers. Perhaps the anti-business bias that undeniably exists among some journalists has steered them away from a hard look at what's been happening within our private enterprise system. Whatever the reason, it is clear that many Americans do not understand how they were suddenly caught in an economic storm. To them, as Churchill once said of Russia, the economy has become a "riddle wrapped inside a mystery inside an enigma." To me, there is no real mystery about how we got here nor is there any secret about the cure. I appreciate the fact that other people have different opinions, but I would suggest that there are four long-range trends in our society which deserve much closer scrutiny: -- One has been the enormous growth of government spending and the accompanying growth in Federal deficits. It took this country 186 years for the Federal budget to break $100 billion, only nine more years to break $200 billion, and only four more years to reach $300 billion -- a line we are crossing this year. The government's share of our Gross National Product has nearly tripled in the past four decades -- and unless we arrest the recent spurt in transfer payments, it will near the 601 mark by the end of this century. In 14 of the past 15 years, the Federal budget has been in the red, and our national debt is growing so fast that interest payments on it have reached $36 billion a year. We are in effect living off our inheritance and mortgaging our future at one and the same time. Neither man nor government can continue to live beyond its means for very long -- and if we continue this way, we will lose not only our prosperity but our freedom as well. -- Secondly, we should recognize that monetary policy has been equally at fault over the past decade. From 1955 to 1965, the money supply grew at the rate of 2\ percent a year, and we enjoyed reasonable price stability. In the decade that has followed, the money supply has been growing at an annual rate of 6 percent a year -- more than double the earlier rate. It L V ! I J i t h S t d U r i n g a l 0 n g P e r i °d of excessive fiscal e * " £ Policies as we have had, inflation has become a n e ° / J- ,1JlJaCt^ l f y°u w i l 1 l0 °k beneath the surface, you will f m d that the inflation stemming from our fiscal a-d monetary excesses has been the single most destructive for*e q u a d r u n l i n / o r 0 ^ " - h u r t i n g « far more thin the rlcen? quadrupling of oil prices, the explosion of food prices, and If -- Thirdly, in a subtle but insidious way, there has been an enormous proliferation in Government regulations in recent years so that they now encumber almost every phase of our business life and cost consumers untold billions of dollars. To rid ourselves of countless rules that cause inefficiencies and drive up prices in transportation, energy and other fields, we must undertake a massive overhaul of our regulatory practices. -- Finally, we should recognize that by discouraging profits and by encouraging consumption and government spending at the sacrifice of saving and capital investment, we are seriously weakening the foundations of our private enterprise system. The record of capital investment in the United States since the early 1960s has been the worst of any major industrialized nation in the Free World. As a consequence, our productivity is also growing more slowly than elsewhere and our economy has failed to match the growth rate of many other countries. We simply must reverse these trends if we want to regain our prosperity and retain the premiere economy of the world. In all of the hand-wringing that is popular today, it may sound strange to hear someone talk of our "premier economy". But it's true, and in tackling our problems, we should never forget it. America is still incredibly strong, powered by the largest and most dynamic free market in the world. In the past 15 years, per capita income in this country has risen by 50 percent. We are still the wealthiest nation the world has ever known, and our citizens are the most affluent. Moreover, even though the problems of unemployment and inflation are especially painful, evidence is gathering on every side that the economy is shifting gears from recession to recovery. We are confident that the recession will bottom out during the middle months of the year, and by the end of 1975, we will definitely be on the road to recovery. As you can see, I deeply believe that we face both a short-term and a long-term economic challenge. I am confident about our prospects in the short-term: we have the resources, we have the economic strength, and we are moving swiftly in the right direction to correct our problems. But to meet the long-term challenge, we must wake up to the fact that dangerous forces are quietly but busily eating away at the foundations of our economy and could eventually destroy it unless we take effective action. That is why it is so vitally important to avoid steps now - - a n even greater budget deficit, for instance, or excessive monetary policies -- that might propel us out of the recession but would only catapult us into a new round of spiraling inflation and still higher unemployment. - 8My greatest concern about the press today is that it fails to convey a greater sense of perspective to the American people about the choices we face. As George Ferguson, former editor-in-chief of the Montreal Star, has observed about modern reporting: "The sense of continuity, of the steady, implacable flow of history from the past into the immediate present, is largely forgotten.. .The result is a kind of breathlessness, a panting sense of excitement which we build up almost subcunsciously, because LhaL is the way, and the only way. . .we have been taught to play our roles." When the press focuses almost entirely on immediate economic news, when in effect it exploits anxiety, it contributes to a process that is potentially lethal for a free society. Time and again over the past few months, those who were so quick to foresee economic disaster -- the preachers of gloom and doom were able to grab a headline in our daily newspapers. Think back over predictions for the collapse of the international monetary system as well as predictions of a dollar a gallon for gas, a dollar a loaf for bread, and a dollar a pound for sugar. All of those forecasts were given far more currency than they deserved. And all of them were wrong. More thoughtful analysis, I believe, would have given the American people an understanding of how very unlikely it was that those things would happen, but unfortunately, very little of that analysis was presented. With prices rising, jobs threatened, and the voices of despair crying out in the press, it is hardly surprising that SS?1JL*?«fiance crumbled. Inevitably, when the public demands explanations, they are told to blame people, not conditions. th« n n M ? ^ 5 p r o 5 e s s * s Personalized, not analyzed. And when Washington d ^ n d s p s o l u t l ° n s > everyone points in one direction: Washington, D.C. Pressures build for "action" by the Federal actiorwouid brbSES-e-t?inJ! V6ry carefllll im5S7«ti?lal,Abut a l m ° S t & reSUlt X abouVwhatlfnd of ever ?hey wan? it >' o n e wants action and We tend t0 m a k e the same policy 2isJak^?hJ? Si?" / J ' e that hel ed t0 hlir7 _\lt* r P get us into this mess in the first I»M J«f™.;f K.ps"a,'f,irx,r -xu ""'•«~ —" good politics. Some of »!,»»§ 9hat g 0 0 d economics is not spend°and-spend I c a !i !' adopted a philosophy of each other in c u t t i n f t ^ ; ^ ' a S t h e y s " a m b l e to outdo They also have the mistaken nolio^thaf thSv" 6 " S ? e ? d i n S Programs. notion that they can raise revenues painlessly by taxing corporations instead of people -- as though businesses are not owned, managed and staffed by people and as though their taxes are not paid for in prices charged to people. They fail to recognize that a healthy, growing private economy -- which still supplies 85 percent of all jobs in this country -- does more to help people than anything that government can ever hope to do. I think that the public -with your help --is gradually learning the truth behind the hollow promises of Big Government and getting "something for nothing." And if reporting continues to be fair and accurate, the day may come when voting for sound economic policies will be considered politically attractive. Ladies and Gentlemen: Let me stress once again that my comments today about the press are intended to be constructive. I believe that the coverage of economic events in this country is steadily improving. News stories that preceded the sale of gold to American citizens were truly masterful, giving the public a much better understanding of both the advantages and disadvantages of owning gold. Indeed, I am convinced that the quality of journalism in this country is higher than anywhere else in the world. But let us recognize that in reporting on the economy, reforms and improvements are still very much needed. We are still far short of the goal once set forth for newsmen by Walter Lippmann: "...to bring to light the hidden facts, to set them into relation with each other, and make a picture of reality on which men can act." And let us recognize one more thing: we are all in the same boat together. The freedom that you cherish for your newspaper -- the freedom of the press that must always be protected in America --is indivisible from the freedom of our enterprise system and the freedom of each of us as individuals. Those precious freedoms are in jeopardy today. In our desire for instant solutions, instant prosperity, and instant relief from the cares of the world, we are tending more and more to choose the false security offered by big government in exchange for small pieces of our freedoms. It is up to all of us here today -- publishers, reporters, and public servants alike -to stand up and fight for those freedoms for ourselves and for our children. 0O0 Thank you. d FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 7, 1975 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON, SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY It is with a great sense of personal sorrow that I learned of Howard Worthington's death this morning. Howard had a distinguished career, spanning two decades of federal service. The wide range of his experience in international trade brought an added dimension to the Administration's efforts to move towards a new era of trade in a world marked with a growing measure of economic interdependence. This was the task Howard was most committed to, and it was one which he worked at tirelessly. As a valued colleague, but most of all as a friend, he will be missed by everyone who knew him. On behalf of the Treasury Department, Mrs. Simon and I wish to extend our condolences to Mrs. Worthington and the Worthington family. 0O0 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY REMARKS OF THE HONORABLE CHARLES A. COOPER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS BEFORE THE BANKERS ASSOCIATION FOR FOREIGN TRADE CONVENTION AT THE GREENBRIER, WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, WEST VIRGINIA 9:00 A.M., Monday, April 7, 1975 A Perspective on Current International Financial Problems I am very pleased to have this opportunity to offer some observations on current international financial problems before such a distinguished audience, we have seen remarkable changes recently in international monetary relationships, and this convention provides a welcome occasion for a useful exchange of views between those who view these relationships from a private perspective and those who see them from a public perspective. I am sure that in such an exchange bankers and government officials alike will learn more about the nature of the world — in the old fable, adding to the number of blind men examining the elephant did make a contribution to human knowledge even though the disagreements were passionate. The experience of the past year gives us basis for confidence that our financial problems are manageable. There has been a notably successful adjustment to a radically altered situation due in no small measure to the flexibility and creativity shown by private financial institutions. But our mutual challenges remain demanding. All of us who are players in the arena of international finance realize how essential it is that we continue to respond effectively to the problems arising from the enormous increase in world petroleum prices. These price increases have occasioned abrupt and massive shifts in the pattern of international trade and payments.toThey have WS-2 placed73industrial countries long accustomed current -4the oil exporters and others, and in doing so tends to encumber the Fund's regular lending resources. This problem is further exacerbated by the facts that the oil facility pays a higher interest rate on these guaranteed borrowings than the IMF pays on the use of its regular currency subscriptions, and that a number of major oil facility lenders currently refuse to allow their regular subscriptions to be used by the Fund. Happily, these shortcomings are now generally recognized. It has been agreed that the oil facility's operations will be improved somewhat this year and that its transitional role will be completed by the end of 19 75, by which time it will be phased out. Yet another imaginative idea sometimes put forward is that the oil consuming countries should seek to reach agreement on their current account objectives in general and on sharing the "oil deficit" in particular. The idea appears to be that industrial countries should devise a formula that would distribute these deficits in an acceptable and equitable fashion. It is argued that without such agreement some countries may not accept the self-discipline necessary to prevent runaway inflation, while others may move so rapidly and insistently to reduce their deficits that they create intolerable adjustment problems for their trading partners. Since the latter would be likely to react in kind, so the argument goes, the world could be plunged into a spiral of escalating trade restrictions and artificial subsidies to exports. This sort of proposal is intellectually seductive — but is it really intellectually sound? One difficulty in such approaches is the technical but inescapable problem of defining both the current account position and the oil deficit to be shared. In seeking to measure current account positions, it is difficult to isolate the influence of transitory factors, such as differences in cyclical situations among countries, in order to determine the underlying position. Measuring the oil deficit raises other questions: should the oil deficit be regarded as simply the increase in a country's oil bill, or should it include related new exports to the oil producers, the investments of the oil producers, the interest payments thereon, and so forth? ^ More fundamentally, this focus on sharing current account deficits as a policy objective ignores the fact c o n s i ^ t ^ i ^ h ^ ^ ^ - - - f - P a y - n t s lectures arf consistent with a satisfactory adaptation to the oil price increases. For example, a relatively strong current account position in an oil importing country need not raise consistency problems so long as that country is willing to provide financing for the consequently enlarged deficits of other consuming countries. Given the range of policy alternatives to achieve consistency, the emphasis inevitably must be on whether countries' policies as a whole are appropriate, rather than on some concept of what countries positions should be, arrived at by mechanistic formulas. It also must be recognized that to be meaningful, an international agreement on an appropriate sharing of current account and oil deficits would also have to embody agreement on a program of action to correct imbalances. The acknowledged limits on the willingness of countries to adapt fiscal and monetary policies to achieve external objectives, combined with the unacceptability of extensive recourse to direct measures affecting external transactions, would inevitably imply actions by countries to influence artificially the underlying trend of their exchange rates. It seems to me highly unrealistic to suppose that a world which suspended attempts to fix exchange rates even before the onslaught of the oil crisis is now ready to undertake the effort again. Ideas of the kind I have just been discussing all reflect a concern that something more must be done. Other commentators, however, seek to minimize the problem itself. Their argument is that it is easily within the capability of the industrial countries, if they resume historical rates of economic growth, to transfer real resources, in the form of exports of goods and services, to the OPEC countries to liquidate oil bills. The transfers to be made to OPEC — estimated at some 2 percent of the industrial countries' GNP — are said to be relatively no greater than those that would have been required had Marshall Plan aid to Europe been all in the form of loans. On the basis of this reasoning, it is concluded that the consuming countries should accept high oil prices, minimize the structural adjustments implied by these prices, borrow to finance current oil bills, and pay later in real resources. One pitfall in this approach is that it does not take into account the problems which arise from differences in countries' willingness and ability to borrow. Some countries will be able to borrow but reluctant to do so, while by In assertions the others real world, will as to be these what anxious differences countries to borrow ought cannot but tounable do. be eliminated to do so. -6But the major shortcoming of this line of reasoning is that it seriously underestimates the economic costs which the oil price increases levy on the rest of the world. It ignores the inflation and unemployment costs imposed on oil importing countries as they adjust their industrial structures to a major change in the relative price of their inputs. The losses incurred in the process of an abrupt, forced structural adjustment of the entire industrial world should not be minimized. Anyone in Detroit can testify to what high oil prices mean for employment on an auto assembly line. Even when the short-run effects are dissipated, levels of real income in the oil importing nations at any point in time will be substantially lower, not only because of the continuing costs of high oil prices, but also because of the reduced capital stock caused by the transitional adjustment to the high oil prices. Moreover, the potential diversion of real output from domestic consumption to foreign markets can by no means be termed minimal — last year alone increased oil payments were on the order of 15 percent of world trade. It is thus important to guard against thinking of costs of 2 percent of GNP as small. If the oil price increases were to be maintainable for a number of years, the result would be the greatest economic misallocation of resources that the world has ever seen. Locking up one of the world's cheapest forms of energy inevitably imposes a worldwide burden of massive dimensions. While it is important in this troubled period not to chase down blind alleys, it is even more important to take decisive actions to meet real problems. In the international financial sphere, additional safeguards against the continuing uncertainties inherent , in the present dramatically changed situation are desirable. While OPEC's surplus funds can't leave the system in the aggregate, there is some danger that individual oil importing countries might be unable, or fear that they will be unable, to obtain on reasonable terms the financing they need even when their own policies are prudent and appropriate. Insurance against such a risk would help to ensure that national and international policies will be based on confidence not on fear. Tonight I will be leaving with Secretary Simon for Paris, where on Wednesday he and other ministers of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will -7initial an agreement which, when approved by the Congress and other legislatures, will establish a financial safety ret to provide such insurance. That is the $25 billion mutual support fund, proposed by the United States last November, agreed to in principle at high level monetary meetings in January, and subsequently worked out in detail. This agreement constitutes a key element in the evolution of governmental strategy to protect against the uncertainties now generated by the oil crisis. Having participated in the negotiation of this agreement, I know there is a feeling among prospective adherents that it represents a significant achievement in cooperative international financial arrangements. It is also an important complement to the cooperation in energy policy which is central to resolution of the fundamental problems resulting from the changed energy balance. For countries committed to cooperation in energy, it will provide assurances that financing will be available in case of need. And, by strengthening the confidence of private lenders and investors in the integrity of the system as a whole and in the ultimate strength of individual countries' positions, the fund will make a major contribution to the operation of the world economic system. We hope that the safety net will not have to be used. If that turns out to be the case, it will have been a costless precaution. If it is utilized, the contribution to world financial stability will be well worth the cost. Whatever new intergovernmental arrangements are developed, the private financial system will inevitably be called upon to play the major role in .channeling OPEC monies to their ultimate employment. To do so will require more of the flexibility and innovation on the part of private institutions which they demonstrated not only last year buL earlier. For example, liabilities management, which changed so greatly in the 1960's with the growth of the Eurodollar market ard the rapid expansion of new forms of debt instruments, must continue to be adapted to new realities. Asset management also must be adapted to importantly altered circumstances. This is perhaps the more difficult challenge, because some of the familiar yardsticks are no longer applicable. In particular, analysis of country risk has become almost a new ball game. Traditional risk analysis has related a country's repayment to balance-of-payments trends, external were debt, rigidly and ability reserve applied, levels. without If due these regard traditional to the yardsticks consequences -8of the existence of a new group of surplus countries, it would be difficult to justify anything beyond a bare minimum of foreign lending. With the increase m oil prices, the trade and current account positions ot oil importing countries as a group have turned sharply adverse. Until the time when the OPEC countries are able to absorb imports from consuming countries at the same rate they themselves export, there will inevitably be an increase in the external indebtedness of the oil consuming countries as a group. What must be cranked into credit analysis in these circumstances is that the creditors — the OPEC countries in the final analysis — can only call their loans from the oil importing countries as a group by accepting goods and services in payment. The very demand for payment creates the conditions that allow payment to be made. Certainly, they can shift funds from one oil importing country to another — if it were in their interest to do so — but this need not cause intolerable strains so long as financing arrangements among the oil importing countries are adequate. Widespread floating of exchange rates introduces still other variables into the analysis of the risks of foreign lending. Heretofore, the level of a country's reserves, often measured in relation to imports or other such norms, was an important guide to a country's debt service capacity. Individual countries now, however, have the choice of taking the consequences of a deteriorating position "on the rate," rather than by drawing down reserves. There are no "pat" answers as to what any given country will do, and net borrowing by the oil consuming countries as a group remains inevitable, but it is clear that every country has available and useable an additional policy alternative. This greater flexibility means that neither the level of a country's reserves nor changes in that level provide the same guide to a country's credit-worthiness that they once did. The diminished relevance of these traditional criteria makes it more important than ever to take a fresh look at the risks of international lending. Of course, commercial risk is always present when lending to business firms or banks. Such normal risks are certainly present in the current difficult situation. The oil embargo, high oil prices, and uncertainty about future energy sources have contributed importantly to the downturn in economic activity and to the pace of structural changes m national economies. In this climate, certain sectors will experience greater difficulties, while others will profit. -9None of this, however, has anything particular to do with the over-all external position of a country. It is •both interesting and relevant that three of the most highly publicized bank collapses which have occurred in the past year were in Germany, Switzerland, and the United States — countries which could hardly be regarded as devastated by the oil related events. This merely reinforces the point that bankers, like governments, must pay attention to the fundamentals. There is a natural resistance to the rather major revisions in our thinking and our practices which are required by the marked changes we have witnessed in our economic order. There is a certain comfort in familiar doctrines and habits no matter how circumstances may have been altered. But I am confident that we can and will make the necessary adjustments, for they are really imposed by external developments. Governments have had their own problems in adjusting — most notably to floating exchange rates. You are all aware of the concern that was being expressed recently in Europe about what is described as weakness of the dollar. The dollar, not surprisingly, has significantly strengthened in recent weeks. Despite a good deal of educational effort, far too many still have apparently not yet recognized that there are two sides to every exchange rate and that what is called a weakening of the dollar may more aptly be described as a strengthening of the German mark or the Swiss franc. Even the widespread use of trade weighted exchange rate computations does not seem to have enabled some observers to broaden their vistas from bilateral rates to more representative measures. Let me conclude my remarks today by briefly rounding out the long agenda of actions needed to cope with the multiple challenges ahead. The basic challenge is as much domestic as international. Nothing is more fundamental to future domestic prosperity and the stability of international financial relations than bringing the major world economies out of recession without exacerbating a still dangerous inflationery situation. We will find it infinitely more difficult to solve the present complex of economic problems in the context of high unemployment and negative growth. Yet if we can restore growth only at the cost of another inflationary spiral, we will have in but substituted one set of problems for another, we andseek. find the end we have choked off the economic recovery -10For developing countries, the challenge is similar. Effective assistance to developing countries hard hit by the increase in oil prices requires a solid foundation. The answer will not be found in oratory about a New Economic Order. The basic requirement remains unchanged: sound domestic economic policies on the part of these countries themselves, to adjust to changed economic conditions, and to promote investment and the increased productivity essential to the realization of their aspirations. But others also must recognize their responsibilities. For the OPEC countries, this means accepting the full implications of their new role. For the world's former creditor countries this means we must not, whatever our own problems, turn inward and backward. We have established a new Development Committee under the aegis of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as a major new forum for organizing the needed response. We have high hopes that the work of this new committee will be effective and practical More action and less rhetoric is the order of the day. We must find concrete solutions to concrete problems. Finally, we must continue our efforts to conform our international financial system to the realities of the present. The OECD Financial Support Agreement will not replace the International Monetary Fund at the center of our financial system; indeed the job of that institution has never been more demanding or more important. We are seeking to move ahead to reach full agreement on expansion of its resources through a major quota increase. Such an expansion has been agreed in principle, and we hope that the remaining difficult problems of the distribution of individual quotas can be resolved by summer. But, in order to make such an expansion possible, we must move in parallel to reach consensus on a number of key amendments to the present Fund articles of agreement: to establish a permanent council of ministers for the organization to reflect the fact that only in such a forum can the vital decisions of an interdependent world be taken; to eliminate outmoded provisions with respect to the role of gold in the system; to incorporate in the rules provisions which recognize and correspond to the reality of floating exchange rates; and to make the present currency resources of the IMF more useable. Stated so simply, the needed amendments might r S ^ f n n * ^ I o b t a i r ? a ble. B u t "hat is really at issue is the revision of basic elements of the constitution of the world's most important international financial institution. This is what I mean by governments getting down to fundamentals. -11As we approach the agenda ahead, we must always bear in mind that the real challenge is not simply to muddle through the difficulties of this year or next. It is to proceed with a clear vision of our long-run objectives. We must make adjustments in our policies while maintaining the liberal and expanding trade and payments system which has so contributed to the prosperity of the post World War II period. We must avoid indulging our nostalgia for an earlier era by returning to practices and rules which proved inadequate and unsustainable in the past and are incompatible with the demands and realities of the present. And we must resist the temptation in a time of stress to turn to government intervention as the solution to all our problems. The argument for continuing to rely on the liberal market system which has served us so well is like the argument for democracy — it may not be the best system that is conceivable, but it is far superior to the alternatives. Thank you. DepartmentoftheTREASURY TELEPHONE W04-2041 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 r FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 7, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.7 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.8 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on April 10, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: 26-week RANGE OF bills ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing July 10, 1975 Price High Low Average a/ Excepting b_/ Excepting Discount Rate 98.492 a/5.966% 98.471 6.049% 98.478 6.021% maturing October 9. 1975 Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ Price 6.16% 6.25% 6.22% 96.842 b/ 6.247% 96.755 6.419% 96.789 6.351% Investment Rate 1/ 6.56% ^ 6.74% 6.67% tenders totaling $1,205,000 tenders totaling $1,390,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 89%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 20%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received Accepted Boston 57,685,000 $ $ 27,520,000 New York 1,909,155,000 2,154,450,000 Philadelphia 83,930,000 29,855,000 Cleveland 128,940,000 82,440,000 Richmond 35,760,000 26,990,000 Atlanta 45,875,000 44,110,000 Chicago 381,870,000 136,325,000 St. Louis 46,930,000 29,275,000 Minneapolis 16,055,000 15,605,000 Kansas City 57,660,000 44,230,000 Dallas 31,270,000 25,160,000 San Francisco 249,305,000 84,715,000 TOTALS$5»044»435,000 Received $ 19,375,000 3,224,780,000 42,385,000 41,055,000 22,270,D00 26,975,000 239,725,000 31,795,000 6,565,000 17,515,000 9,785,000 677,745,000 $2,700,675,000 c/ $4,359,970,000 Accepted $ 9,375,000 1,979,780,000 7,385,000 16,055,000 12,020,000 24,975,000 61,725,000 15,795,000 4,565,000 16,515,000 9,785,000 642,245,000 $2,800,220,000 d/ H' Includes $463,815,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. -\l Includes $154,560,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. _ ^ - ** federal financing bank .E vo WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 a> o n" eg FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Jack Plum 964-2615 April 8, 1975 SUMMARY OF LENDING ACTIVITY March 18 - April 3, 1975 Federal Financing Bank lending activitiy for the period March 18 through April 3, 1975 was announced as follows by Roland H. Cook, Secretary: On March 19, the Bank purchased $3.6 million of Small Business Investment Company 10-year debentures at an interest rate of 8%. On March 21, the Bank entered into a loan agreement with the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK) and the Ford Motor Credit Company under which the Bank loaned AMTRAK $11.2 million for 15 years to finance the purchase of four (4) French turbine-powered trains by Ford for leasing to AMTRAK. The loan is guaranteed by the Department of Transportation at an interest rate of 7.801. The Bank also signed a loan agreement with the Government of Brazil, in accordance with the February 3 agreement between the Bank and the Department of Defense, whereby the Bank agreed to a two year commitment to lend $27.5 million to Brazil at a rate of 8.05% with a final maturity of 1984. The first advance against this commitment was made March 31 in the amount of approximately $2.3 million. On March 25, in .accordance with the February 3 agreement between the Bank and the Department of Defense, the Bank signed a loan agreement with the Republic of China where by the Bank agreed to a commitment to purchase an 8-year promissory note of $45,200,000 with repayment guaranteed by the Department of Defense. An initial drawing of $13,205,000 was made against this commitment on April 1, 1975 at an interest rate of 7.90%. (OVER) - 2On March 26, the Bank purchased $500 million of 5-year Certificates of Beneficial Ownership from the Farmers Home Administration at an interest, rate of 7.90%, on an annual basis. On March 27, the Tennessee Valley Authority borrowed $440 million from the FFB; $100 million at 5.76% maturing May 29, 1975, $240 million at 6.02% maturing July 31, 1975, and $100 million at 8.70% maturing March 31, 2000. On March 31, the Bank advanced $3,064,000 to the Oglethorpe Electric Membership Corporation at 7.00% interest on a quarterly basis. The loan is guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration, and matures March 31, 1977. On March 31, AMTRAK, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, made a $15 million drawing against the $100 million line of credit signed October 11, 1974 at an interest rate of 6.005%. For the first quarter of 1975, the Bank made loans totalling over $3.1 billion. Federal Financing Bank loans outstanding as of April 3, 1975 total $6.7 billion: unfilled commitments total $4.3 billion. oOo April 4, 1975 i DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY ,4 9 THE DEPARTMENT OP THE TREASURY STATEMENT OF WARREN F. BRECHT ASSISTANT SECRETARY (ADMINISTRATION) BEFORE GOVERNMENT INFORMATION AND INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES APRIL 8, 1975 Madam Chairwoman and Members of this Committee: I am pleased to represent the Department of the Treasury in responding to your March 20, 1975, invitation to Secretary Simon to receive testimony on our Department's policies and practices relating to assignment of personnel by us or our contractors to overseas areas or countries. Before presenting my opening statement, I would like to introduce my associates who are with me today: Mrs. Esther C. Lawton, the Department's Deputy Director of Personnel; Mr. Thomas P. O'Malley, Assistant Director (Procurement and Personal Property Management); Mr. Theodore A. Wahl, Deputy Director, Office of Middle East Affairs; and Mrs. Bonnie Pounds, Deputy Director, Office of Saudi Arabian Affairs. In preparing for this hearing, we have reviewed all of the Department's policies, practices and regulations pertaining WS-274 - 2 to employment and contracting'for overseas personnel. In this process, we have canvassed each of our Treasury Bureaus and Offices in the Office of the Secretary who have personnel assigned overseas or who engage contractors for personnel overseas. The following responses to the specific questions in your March 20 letter, therefore, represent a composite of departmental and bureau practices: 1. No constraints regarding an individual's racial origin, color, sex, religion or country of birth are included in the Department's policies or practices relating to the assignment of individuals to overseas locations. 2. No consideration is given to any one or a composite of such factors in determining whether or not a particular individual will be assigned to an overseas area, country or international organization. Furthermore, such factors do not influence the total numbers of such categories of individuals given such assignments. 3. The Department imposes no employment constraints in response to requests of foreign host nations or international organizations. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge, we have not been requested by any foreign nation to restrict the assignment of personnel in their country based on race, color, sex, religion or country of birth. Kf - 34. Question four, regarding legal or administrative authority, is not applicable, since none of the above answers is affirmative. 5. The Department has no written or oral working agreements with overseas contractors which impose any such employment or assignment constraints on the Treasury Department. To supplement our response to the specific questions raised by the Subcommittee, I would like to make the following additional comments: First, the Treasury Department feels a strong commitment to its policy of equal employment opportunity. This policy applies to all bureaus and organizational elements and to all employees who are U. S. citizens, whether located in the continental United States, its territories, or in foreign countries. In reviewing the criteria furnished by our bureaus and offices for selection of personnel for overseas assignment, the only additional factors either required or highly desired include, in some instances, language skills for the particular country and medical examinations to determine physical fitness. Otherwise, the selection criteria are limited strictly to technical skills, professional capability, job knowledge, and satisfactory performance evaluations—the very factors which are at the heart - 4 of the Civil Service Commission's merit selection and promotion system. Second, Secretary Simon personally has taken an active interest in the equal employment opportunity program. In a recent statement he reaffirmed his support and reminded Department officials of their continuing obligation to promote the implementation of Treasury's EEO objectives within their respective organizations. The Treasury Department currently has some 134 Affirmative Action Plans in place, not only in Washington, but throughout our field structure. In fact, the Treasury Department engages in a vigorous effort under its Affirmative Action Plan to promote equal employment opportunity and to insure that all of our employment practices are in strict conformance with applicable laws, executive orders, regulations and the spirit of EEO. Third, in putting Treasury's overseas employment practices in perspective, this Committee should be aware that as of February 28, 1975, we had approximately 900 employees working in U. S. Territories and foreign nations. Of this total, 586 were U. S. citizens working in U. S. Territories. Of the remainder, 46 were foreign nationals and only 27 4 were U. S. citizens employed in foreign nations. Practically all of these are in either the U. S. Customs Service, the Internal Revenue SI - 5 Service, or the Office of the Secretary (primarily Treasury Attaches assigned to foreign embassies). So, overseas personnel in general are a relatively small factor in a department of over 100,000 employees. Fourth, one area receiving increasing attention in recent months is the Joint Economic Commissions between the United States and various foreign countries, mostly in the Middle East. These Joint Commissions provide a government-to-government relationship across a broad spectrum and relate to the socioeconomic development needs of the particular country. Areas of emphasis include industrialization, manpower and education, agriculture, and science and technology. The Treasury Depart- ment has either a lead role or a major support role on each of these Joint Commissions, but other relevant government agencies are represented. These include the Departments of State, Commerce, Labor, Agriculture, Interior, HEW and the National Science Foundation. To date, Treasury has not physically assigned individuals to these countries. Plans are underway,, however, to open a six or seven person office in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to be known as the United States Representation to the Joint Economic Cooperation Commission Office. As you know, these Joint Economic Commissions are a relatively new venture for the United States. In assembling the staff for these Commissions, the Treasury Department - 6 intends to work diligently to avoid any of the discriminatory practices outlined in your March 20 letter to us. Finally, this opening statement has concentrated almost entirely on Treasury's own personnel. As a general rule, Treasury bureaus do not contract with commercial organizations for services to be performed at overseas locations. There » have been some occasions for Treasury to obtain contract services on a reimbursable basis through the State Department; however, no personnel assignment restraints or conditions have been established by Treasury in these cases. Contractual services by the Bureau of Government Financial Operations and the Internal Revenue Service have been nominal. In any event, Treasury does not impose policies or procedures relating to contractor assignment of personnel with respect to an individual's race, sex, religion or national origin. In fact, Treasury's procurement offices must include in their formal contract documents the appropriate equal opportunity clauses to assure contractor compliance with Executive Orders 11246 and 11375. Madam Chairwoman, I am prepared to discuss in more detail the policies and practices of our various bureaus and offices. This concludes my opening statement. I will be pleased to answer any questions that you or the members of your Subcommittee may have. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Monday, April 7, 1975 FOR INFORMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY FILES BEFORE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION Attached for your information is a filing by the Council on Wage and Price Stability before the Federal Aviation Administration recommending that the proposed regulations regarding aircraft noise retrofit requirements should not proceed. The Environmental Protection Agency, acting under the Federal Aviation Act of 1958 as amended by the Noise Control Act of 1972, has proposed to the Federal Aviation Administration that the existing noise standards of Part 36 of the Federal Aviation Regulations ("Noise Standards" Aircraft Type Certification") be amended to apply, after June 30, 1978, to existing subsonic turboject aircraft, which do not now meet the standard. After careful review of the proposed regulations and all supporting economic analysis, the Council has concluded that the proposal does not appear to be justified on economic grounds. In particular, the staff analysis points out that in return for an estimated expenditure of over $800 million, all that will be achieved is a moving forward in time of benefits that otherwise will be achieved under existing standards. o 0 o Attachment CWPS-38 BEFORE THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION TE OFFICE OF THE CHIEF COUNSEL ATTENTION: RULES DOCKET, AGC-24 COMMENTS OF THE COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY Regarding Proposed Aircraft Noise Retrofit Requirements The Council on Wage and Price Stability (the "Council") hereby submits its comments to the Federal Aviation Administration ("FAA") regarding the proposed regulations submitted to the FAA by the Environmental Protection Agency ("EPA") on noise retrofit requirements for civil subsonic turbojet engine powered airplanes. These regulations and the FAA's request for comments thereon were published in the Federal Register on February 26, 1975. See 40 Federal Register 9218. EPA, acting under the Federal Aviation Act of 1958 as amended by the Noise Control Act of 1972, has proposed that the existing noise standards of Part 36 of the Federal Aviation Regulations ("Noise Standards: Aircraft Type Certification") be amended - 2 - to apply, after June 30, 1978, to existing subsonic turbojet aircraft, including aircraft that weighs less than 75,000 pounds and foreign aircraft landing and taking off within the United States. The aircraft noise level reductions required by the proposed regulations would be implemented by the retrofit of airplane engine/nacelles with special sound absorbing materials ("SAM"). One-half of the engine/nacelles of aircraft weighing 75,000 pounds or more would be required to be retrofitted by June 30, 1976. By that same date the remaining engine/nacelles would be required to be scheduled for retrofit installation. Complete compliance by all subsonic turbojet aircraft would be required by June 30, 19 78. The staff of the Council has reviewed EPA's proposed FAA regulations, EPA's supporting economic analysis, and several outside studies of the benefits of aircraft noise abatement and has concluded (i) that the economic benefits are not commensurate with the costs that the proposal would incur and (ii) that, absent substantial as yet unspecified non-economic benefits, the proposal would be unduly inflationary. - 3 - A. The Council has a Statutory Interest in the Rulemaking The Council on Wage and Price Stability was created by the Council on Wage and Price Stability Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-387) on August 24, 1974. The Council's purpose under the Act is, generally summarized, to monitor the inflationary impact of activities in both the private and public sectors of the economy. In regard to the public sector, section 3(a) (7) of the Act expressly directs the Council to: "review and appraise the various programs, policies and activities of the departments and agencies of the United States for the purpose of determining the extent to which those programs and activities are contributing to inflation." Moreover, in Executive Order 11821, issued November 27, 1974, the President required that all major proposed rules and regulations issued by Executive Branch agencies be accompanied by a statement which certifies that the inflationary impact of the proposal has been evaluated. OMB Circular No. A-107 assigned the Council a major role in reviewing the supporting economic analysis for these statenents. B. Only Limited Benefits Would Result from the EPA Proposal The proposed regulations would produce both - 4 - benefits and costs to the public. It is the Council's concern that the benefits, both tangible and intangible, be sufficient to justify the costs that the regulations would impose upon that portion of the public that travels by air. As set forth above, it is our view that adequate benefits have not to date been identified to justify the EPA proposal. The benefits generated by EPA's proposed standard differ significantly in character from those normally sought as a result of the agency's regulatory activities. First, in contrast to certain substances such as sulfur dioxide or pesticides, or even in contrast to noise levels of the type experienced continuously by workers in certain occupations, aircraft noise at the levels and durations under consideration here is not a hazard to public health. Instead, it is most V accurately classified as an annoyance. Second, it is an annoyance affecting a relatively limited number of people — those living in the V One study found that the single activity most often mentioned as being disturbed by aircraft noise was TV and radio listening. Tracor, Community Reaction to Aircraft Noise, Vol. 1, Austin, Texas, Tr~ic~or, 9J9^ immediate vicinity of certain high traffic volume airports. Only approximately 2 1/2 percent of the population presently lies within the NEFdB 30 noise contours, the point established by the Department of Housing and Urban Development as the border between a normally acceptable and normally unacceptable outdoor and indoor living environment. Third, again, unlike certain other types of pollutants and public health hazards, noise pollution at the levels being considered here does not accumulate in its effects over time to some danger point. Instead it is a completely transitory phenomenon. Fourth, and perhaps most important, all the projected benefits that would be achieved under the proposed rule would eventually be achieved under existing regulations. The retrofit program merely moves these benefits forward in time. Since December 1, 1969, all newly certificated subsonic transport aircraft categories and subsonic turbojet aircraft have had to meet the noise requirement of Part 36. Since October 26, 19 73, all newly produced subsonic transport and subsonic turbojet aircraft have had to meet this standard regardless of when the aircraft category was certified. - 6 - Thus, by the end of 1974, all DC-10's, all L-1011's and certain Boeing 747's, 727's and DC-9's already met the standard. As the aircraft not now required to comply with Part 36 are retired, the benefits that EPA proposes at a high cost will be realized automatically with no additional costs. Thus, the relevant benefits are not the benefits of having quieter aircraft per se, but instead the benefits of having quieter aircraft sooner than we otherwise would have them. Some idea of the advantages that may be expected can be obtained from the EPA Project Report: Noise Standards for Civil Subsonic Turbojet EnginePowered Airplanes (December 16, 1974). According to Figure 13, at pages 10-20 of that Report, the noise reduction level expected as of January, 1978 with the SAM retrofit will be exceeded without the proposed retrofit by January 1, 1980, provided currently planned other programs are carried out. In short, under the EPA proposal the public will be buying less than a two year advance in benefits. This difference is illustrated by Figure 1. The situation portrayed here is admittedly simplified. - 7- The vertical axis measures the level of aircraft noise; the horizontal axis measures time. Assuming no regulations, aircraft noise would be at some level. We have assumed for the purposes of this illustration that this level would be constant and have labeled this "Baseline Noise Level." As noted above, under regulations already promulgated, noise is scheduled to drop over time. This time path is labeled "Normal Fleet Replacement with FAR 36 Aircraft." The proposed regulations would accelerate the achieving of this level as illustrated by the line labeled "Retrofit Program." (To simplify the presentation we have ignored other proposed programs such as refanning and the two-segment approach.) The relevant benefits of the retrofit program are not measured by the entire area between the "Baseline Noise Level" and the "Retrofit Program," but merely the shaded area between the lines labeled "Normal Fleet Replacement with FAR 36 Aircraft" and "Retrofit Program." C. No Adequate Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Proposal has been Undertaken These caveats are not meant to imply that - 8 - Figure 1 The Baseline Nois_e _Level _ _ __ - - > Normal Fleet Replacement With FAR 36 Aircraft Aircraft Noise Levels Present June 30, 1978 Date last Non-FAR 36 Aircraft is Retired Alternative Measures of the Benefits of Aircraft Noise Abatement Time - 9 - aircraft noise abatement would not produce significant benefits. Indeed, most of the studies we have examined have found statistically significant and measurable benefits to aircraft noise abatement. Our concern with the EPA proposal and supporting analysis is that EPA has failed to attempt to assess these benefits of aircraft noise abatement in any meaningful way. EPA's economic analysis is confined to a costeffectiveness study where "effectiveness" is measured by the number of people removed from within various noise contours. Costs are not compared to benefits; only the least cost method of attaining certain benefit levels is examined. EPA, of course, recognizes their omission but states: Consequently, as in many environmental situations, not having quantitative estimates of the benefits of noise reduction precludes analysis of the amount of noise environment reduction that is justified on a cost-benefit basis; therefore, the subsequent analysis will use a costeffectiveness analytic framework." EPA Project Report, p. 6-3 This is surprising, for of all the different types of pollution, the measurement of the cost of noise pollution is one of the most highly developed. The intrinsic characteristics of aircraft noise - 10 - abatement mentioned above (that it is not a significant public health hazard, that it is transitory in the environment, that it is localized in effect, and that it is decreasing over time) lend themselves to cost-benefit analysis. Indeed, there is an extensive V literature on the subject. In order to show what such a cost-benefit comparison might indicate for the case at hand, we performed our own analysis using the EPA Project Report and the sources cited in the previous footnote. Our results are preliminary, but we believe indicative of what a more extensive analysis might find. The four studies cited were performed independently, at different times, for four different airports (San Francisco, Minneapolis, Washington, D.C. and Boston) and employed slightly differing methodologies. However, all arrived at their results through multiple V The literature on the quantitative benefits of aircraft noise abatement is quite extensive. Recent studies include F.C. Emerson, The Determinants of Residential Value With Special Reference to the Effects of Aircraft Nuisance and other Environmental Features, Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Minnesota, iy6y; P.K. Dygert, Estimation of the Cost of Aircraft Noise to Residential Activities, Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of M1VhigaT1t 1973; I. Price, The Social Cost of Airport Noise as Measured by Rental Changes: The Case ot Logan Airport, PhTp": dissertation, Boston university, 1974; and J.P. Nelson, The Effects of Mobile-Source Air and Noise Pollution on Residential Property Values, Office of th* sPnrPtaryr Dept. of Transportation, 1975. M regression techniques and employed the hedonic price equation approach to measure the disbenefit of aircraft noise as capitalized in property values. These studies found that property values for single family homes were adversely affected by aircraft noise, and that this affect expressed itself in the form of a 0.4 to 0.5 percent reduction in property value per NEF dB. By extrapolating from the EPA data, we were able to determine that if nothing is done except to implement the proposed two-segment landing approach, approximately 5.8 million people will be living within the 30 NEF or higher noise contours by 1978. Retrofitting the entire non-Part 36 fleet by 1978 would result in a 2 to 3 NEF dB reduction in noise exposure for these people as compared to the exposure they would otherwise experience. Assuming an average of three persons per household, an average 1973 property value per household of $21,300, and using the consensus estimate of 0.5 percent property value loss per NEF dB, the marginal benefit of retrofit would be a maximum of $617.6 V million. Since EPA estimates the cost in 1973 dollars of */ The $21,300 property value estimate was calculated By taking the 1970 average homeowners property value for metropolitan suburbs of $20,800 and the 1970 average rent for metropolitan suburbs of $130, multiplying (Footnote continued on following page) - 12 - retrofitting with quiet nacelles to be $800 million dollars, the benefit-cost ratio is .772. It should be clear that this estimate is biased upward. First, we have used the upper estimate for property loss per dB increase. Second, the upper NEF dB estimate has been used. Third, the above analysis assumes that the 3 dB improvement continues indefinitely where as in fact, because aircraft not subject to Part 36 are being phased out, the marginal noise improvement due to retrofit would continuously decline and eventually be eliminated as illustrated in Figure 1 above. We hasten to add that the mere fact .that the calculated monetary benefit-cost ratio is less than (Footnote continued from previous page the rent figure by the real estate rule of 100 times monthly rent equal property value, inflating the two estimates by six percent per year (the average rate of property value inflation between 1967 and 1972) to bring the estimates to 1973, and finally by taking the average of the two property value estimates weighted by the percentage of homeowners and renters in the U.S. population in 19 70 (62.9 percent and 37.1 percent, respectively). The $617.6 million dollar benefit figure was then estimated by multiplying the property value figure by the number of households within the NEF contours (the 5.8 million EPA population impact figure divided by the three persons per household average for suburban metropolitan areas) and then multiplying this figure by the 1.5% expected property value reduction that would be expected with a 3 dB NEF reduction. - 13 - unity does not prove conclusively that the proposed retrofit program should not be implemented. However, it does mean that intangible benefits worth a minimum of $180 million (and probably much more) in the mind of the decision maker must be found somewhere in order to justify t.ie program. To our knowledge, this point has not been addressed by EPA. Several additional issues need to be addressed. First, EPA's cost-effectiveness analysis does not separate out the marginal cost and marginal benefit effects of the two-segment landing approach and the quiet nacelles retrofit. In some cases, even the noise abatement due to the continuing phase-out of non-Part 36 aircraft is counted by EPA as part of the benefits. For example, the EPA states (40 F.R. 8221) that "the EPA estimates that the equivalent number of persons exposed to a Day-Night level (ldn) of 75 dB (40 NEF) will be over 80 0,000 fewer people nationally. This estimate includes, in addition to Quiet Nacelles, the combined effects of the introduction of new quieter aircraft into the fleet and the use of a two-segment approach procedure." One cannot effectively analyze - 14 - the cost-effectiveness of the quiet nacelles program when benefits of this program are confounded with the benefits of other programs. Second, although it is true as the EPA Project Report states that aircraft noise is a "technological externality" and that economic efficiency would be improved if the users of aircraft paid the full costs of the service including the noise pollution costs to third parties, in fact, this is not feasible. Indeed, the proposal, if adopted, might generate major distributional inequities. The people who have suffered because of aircraft noise include those property owners whose property has declined in value. However, many affected property owners have already sold their property and borne the resulting loss in value. The retrofit program the EPA is proposing would V not benefit these people. Instead, it would create a windfall gain for those who happened to purchase __/ According to Goodman, after only five years as much as one-half of the residents of a neighborhood may have moved. John Goodman, "Local Residential Mobility and Family Housing Adjustment" unpublished paper, University of Michigan. 9 - 15 - v these properties at their reduced values. Furthermore, the costs of the retrofit program likely will be borne by all air passengers, not merely by those traveling on the diminishing portion of the jet fleet that fails to meet the requirements of FAR Part 36. In short, the entire flying population, many of whom are not responsible for the damage, will be "taxed" through higher air fares to compensate a relatively small part of the total population, a large proportion of whom already have been compensated in the form of a reduction in the price they paid for their property. A further concern of ours is that EPA has not considered the separate effects of their proposal that the retrofit program be applied to jet aircraft of under 75,000 pounds and to the aircraft of foreign air carriers that land at U.S. airports. Both of V The principle that airports are not liable for property damage to owners who acquired their property after the noise impact became apparent has been upheld in inverse condemnation suits filed against the City and County of Denver, Colorado. For a discussion of easement costs and court litigation due to aircraft noise, see P. McClure, "Indicators of the Effect of Jet Noise on the Value of Real Estate" Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, p. 4117, 1969. - 16 - these proposals would have differential impacts which deserve a separate analysis on both the cost and benefit side. We therefore conclude that, based upon the weight of the evidence, the retrofit program to be implemented by the proposed EPA amendment to Part 36 would be inflationary and should not proceed. We recommend that, if EPA disagrees with this conclusion, it should be prepared to support its argument with the sort of analysis that it has thus far failed to perform. Respectfully submitted, George C. Eads Assistant Director for Government Operations and Research Council on Wage and Price Stability Vaughn C. Williams General Counsel Council on Wage and Price Stability April 4, 1975 rtmentoftluTREASURr , D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE WO4-2041 IHu FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 8, 1975 TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,400,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued April 17, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated January 16, 1975, and to mature July 17, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XE1), originally issued in the amount of $2,205,700,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated April 17, 1975, and to mature October 16, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XT8). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing April 17, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $4,606,995,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,624,630,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, April 14, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on April 17, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing ment. April 17, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice* prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 8, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES INITIATION OF COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATION Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today the issuance of a "Notice of Receipt of Countervailing Duty Petition and Initiation of Investigation," on glazed ceramic wall tile from the Philippines. The Notice will appear in the Federal Register of Wednesday, April 9, 1975. The Notice states that on February 26, 1975, a petition in satisfactory form was received alleging that payments or bestowals, conferred by the Government of the Philippines upon the manufacture, production or exportation of glazed ceramic wall tile from the Philippines constitute the payment or bestowal of a bounty or grant within the meaning of the Countervailing Duty Law (19 U.S.C. 1303). Under the statute, the Treasury has six months from the date of receipt, until August 26, 1975, to make a preliminary determination, and 12 months, until February 26, 1976, to make a final determination. If Treasury finds that a bounty or grant has been paid or bestowed, the imports in question would be subject to an additional "countervailing" duty equivalent to the net amount of the bounty or grant. During the period of January through September 1974, imports of glazed ceramic wall tile from the Philippines # million. # were valued at approximately# $1.1 Contact Point JG Wallar X-2951 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: John Plum 964-2615 April 8, 1975 PRESIDENT NAMES SIMON CHAIRMAN OF NEWLY CREATED EAST-WEST FOREIGN TRADE BOARD President Ford today designated Treasury Secretary William E. Simon as chairman of the newly created EastWest Foreign Trade Board. The Board was established by Executive Order March 27 under authority of the Trade Act of 1974. The new Board replaces the President's Committee on EastWest Trade Policy, which had been in existence since June 25, 1974, and of which Mr. Simon was co-vice chairman. In addition to Secretary Simon, the new Board's membership includes the Secretaries of State, Agriculture, Commerce; the Special Representative for Trade Negotiations; the Director of the Office of Management and Budget; the Executive Director of the Council on International Economic Policy; the President of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, and the Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs, L. William Seidman, who was designated today as Deputy Chairman of the Board. The new Board is authorized to promulgate "such rules and regulations as are necessary or appropriate to carry out its responsibilities" under the Trade Act and the President's Executive Order on the Administration of the Trade Agreements Program. The Program includes all activities consisting of, or related to, the negotiation or administration of international agreements primarily concerning trade and which are concluded pursuant to the authority vested in the President by the Constitution, the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, and the 1974 Trade Act. Secretary Simon, in addition to being chairman of the new Board, is co-chairman of the Joint U.S.-U.S.S.R. Commercial Commission, which will hold its Fifth Annual Session Thursday and Friday of this week in Moscow. The Secretary heads the U.S. delegation participating in the meeting, being held to review recent developments in U.S.Soviet economic relations, and to exchange views on prospects for further trade development and economic cooperation. (OVER) WS-?7<; - 2The Fifth Session will take up the status of major projects under negotiation between U.S. firms and Soviet foreign trade organizations; facilitation of trade missions, trade fairs, and exhibitions organized in the two countries; exchange of economic and financial data helpful to business transactions, and other subjects which either the U.S.S.R. or the U.S. may raise to encourage improvements in economic relations. As chairman of the President's Economic Policy Board and chief financial officer of the United States, Secretary Simon plays a major role in formulating, recommending and coordinating the nation's international and domestic economic policies. He also has major responsibility for coordinating international energy policies. Secretary Simon is chairman of the Joint U.S.-Saudi Commission on Economic Cooperation and the U.S.-Israeli Commission on Economic Development; he is the U.S. Governor of the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is also a member of the U.S.-Egyptian Commission on Economic Development. In his capacity as U.S. Governor to the Asian Development Bank Secretary Simon will lead the U.S. Delegation to the Bank's 8th annual meeting at its headquarters in Manila from April 24-26. oOo DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 8, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S 292-DAY BILL AUCTION Tenders for $ 1,500 million of 292-day Treasury bills to be issued to the public, to be dated April 14, 1975, and to mature January 31, 1976, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: (Excepting 3 tenders totaling $30,000) Investment Rate Price Discount Rate High - 94.699 6.535% 6.93% Low 94.656 Average 94.679 (Equivalent Coupon-Issue Yield) 6.588% 6.560% 6.99% 6.95% TOTAL TENDERS FROM THE PUBLIC RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco TOTAL $ 13,155,000 2,547,205,000 26,555,000 91,485,000 61,085,000 12,830,000 376,840,000 31,580,000 36,335,000 16,225,000 9,815,000 372,155,000 $3,595,265,000 Accepted $ 1,155,000 1,270,305,000 6,055,000 44,465,000 12,735,000 12,830,000 80,300,000 11,020,000 1,235,000 5,225,000 5,035,000 50,075,000 $1,500,435,000 The $1,500,435,000 of accepted tenders includes 22 % of the amount of bills bid for at the low price and $30,070,000 of noncompetitive tenders from the public accepted at the average price. In addition, $85,000,000 of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. "S Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Transcript Number of Pages Removed: 2 Author(s): Title: CBS Morning News Interview with Secretary Parsky Date: 1975-04-07 Journal: Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Transcript Number of Pages Removed: 2 Author(s): Title: The Ten O'Clock News, "The Next Decade" Date: 1975-04-07 Journal: Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org FOR RELEASE 1:00 P.M. EST y\ / STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY * UPON SIGNING THE OECD FINANCIAL SUPPORT AGREEMENT PARIS, FRANCE, APRIL 9, 1975 Mr. Chairman, Mr. Secretary General, Fellow Representatives: I am sure that the historic significance of this occasion escapes none of us. At a time of great challenge, creation of a major instrument of international financial cooperation, in which all share both the risks and the benefits, evidences vividly our recognition of our mutual interdependence. It testifies also to our determination to take those steps necessary to ensure that we remain masters of our own fate in the face of economic uncertainties of a dimension and complexity not seen for a quarter century. This agreement is an important complement to cooperation in energy which is central to resolution of the fundamental. problems in that area. For countries committed to economic cooperation, it will provide assurance that financing will be available in case of need. And, by strengthening the confidence of private lenders and investors in the integrity of the system as a whole and in the ultimate strength of individual countries1 positions, the Financial Support Agreement will make a major contribution to the operation of the world economic system. It is our belief that the very existence of the Financial Support Agreement will contribute to this objective and that the assurance provided by this arrangement will itself serve to reduce the likelihood of developments which would require it to be brought into play. Lite an insurance policy, it provides protection against unlikely but nonetheless possible contingencies. This is not a time for complacency or self-satisfaction. We must continue to strive to adapt the basic rules which govern our economic relations to the realities of today amidst the urgent press of day-to-day problems. Our ability to WS-277 maintain and invigorate our basic commitment (over) to a liberal - 2 trade and payments system, despite temptations to deviate, will be the true test of our resolve. It is often said that in every crisis there is opportunity. The energy crisis led to the intensified cooperation which we are consolidating here today. Now, the challenge is to continue together to forge a response which permits us not merely to get through this difficult period but to build a better world, and in so doing, to preserve the basic values which bind us together. By our presence here, and our signatures, we testify again to our determination to find common solutions to common problems. I am happy to affix my name to this historic document. The 24-nation Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was established in 1961. Its purposes are (a) to promote economic growth and employment while maintaining financial stability; (b) to contribute to sound economic expansion in member as well as non-member countries in the process of development; and (c) to contribute to expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis0 oOo EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tuesday, April 8, 1975 9 FOR INFORMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY STUDIES PRICES IN THE BAKED GOODS AND CEREAL INDUSTRIES Albert Rees, Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability, announced today that the Council staff has initiated a study of prices in the baked goods and cereal industries. In making the announcement, Mr, Rees said, "Prices of the ingredients for these products have been falling for the past few months, but this has not yet been reflected in retail prices. We want to know why this is the case and when we can expect retail prices to reflect these lower costs." In doing the study, the Council has hired David Schwartzman, a professor of economics at the New School for Social Research in New York City as a consultant. o 0 o CWPS-39 Hello, I'm delighted to be here tonight. I don't think I've ever seen so many men and women bankers in one room before, and I never may again, so I'll take this opportunity to express my admiration for you and your profession. I do have enormous respect for your work, because you bankroll the improvements in America. Bankers help to finance many of the good changes occuring in our cities. You help young couples and young businesses get started in life — help farmers survive the bad years and grow in the good times — and you respond generously to community and charitable causes. Banks and bankers have been part of America's life since the beginning. When the early pioneers moved to my homestate of New Mexico, and elsewhere, the cast of characters that won the West always included the cowboy, the local drygoods merchant, and the town banker. Your predecessors were a part of America's early life, and you Remarks by the Honorable Francine I, Neff before the St. Louis Chapter, American Institute of Bank Women, St. Louis, Missouri on April 10, 1975 / remain a vital part of the Nation today, because your services are basic to society. You finance the future. I suspect women bankers are particularly interested in the future because your numbers will increase in the next decade. Women, in fact, are on the move in many fields. A few years ago we used to call the 20th century, the "century of the comman man." We might better call it the "century of the common woman"; because for the first time in history, fairly ordinary women -- not geniuses, or saints, or Joan of Arc's, but women like you and me, in sizable numbers, have a real opportunity to play important roles in our community and national life. The token woman is disappearing — and today tokens are for subways. Since I live in Washington, D.C, I am particularly aware of women in government. Connecticut, for example, has a woman governor, and New York state has a woman Lieutenant Governor. There are 17 Congresswomen, and one new cabinet officer, Mrs. Carla Hills of Housing and Urban Development. A good friend of mine, Mary Louise Smith, is the first woman chairman of the Republican National Committee, while Mrs. Mary Brooks is the director of the Treasury's Bureau of the Mint, and I am the United States Treasurer and the first woman director of the United States Savings Bonds Division. Women are moving up in the banking field as well. As you know, the Bank of America has settled a class^ action suit on behalf of its female employees, which will mean about $10 million in additional income to the women. The Bank also agreed to increase its total proportion of women officers, at all levels, to 40 percent by the end of 1978, with 5 percent of this number to be at the highest levels of management. In addition, the first bank organized and staffed by women will soon be opened in New York City. The First Women's Bank — that's the name — hopes to make a profit, of course, and beyond that, to establish equal opportunities for women in credit and employment. Women-managed banks are also being considered in Chicago, Connecticut, and California. Today's ambitious young woman is not looking for a job. She is looking for a career. And the doors to the executive suite are open to her. We women, of course, must do our part. We must be prepared by training and attitude. We must truly accept the idea of both equal rights and equal responsibilities in whatever we do. And I think we must all acknowledge the fact that women are the mothers and men the fathers of our next generation — and obviously that influences our lifestyles. I am strongly in favor of all women using their abilities to the fullest. outside of the home. This can be done inside and I personally feel that full time P motherhood is an important job that requires as much "smarts", in many ways, as any other important job. Our choices, as women, of how we invest our time and energy may very well be different at different periods in our life. My own life is the example with which I am most familiar. For years I was a housewife, mother, and dedi- cated volunteer•for everything from the PTA to the GOP. I worked hard both inside and outside of the home, although neither was a salaried job. After my children were grown, I had the opportunity to turn soiae of my skills and knowledge learned over the years into a fulltime position. So today, I'm still working 10 hours a day, but this time for my favorite government as the United States Treasurer and the Director of the Savings Bonds Program. Savings Bonds have been part of my life for years. As a teenager, I sold War Bonds. And as a young wife and mother, I bought bonds. Like you, I've known for a long time that it was a convenient, patriotic way for millions of people to put money aside for their future. Today, as National Director of the Bond Program, I am learning more about another aspect of Bonds, and that is their role in the management of the nation's debt. United States Savings Bonds provide our government with a stable and efficient way to meet a sizable percentage of our borrowing needs, at a relatively low cost to the Treasury, and consequently to the taxpayer. To the extent that the Treasury is able to finance through nonmarketable securities, the borrowing is kept out of the marketplace, and thus it does not compete directly with corporate and state local borrowers. And in view of the huge sums currently needed, this part of the bond program takes on added significance. Let's take a closer look at our public debt. The public debt outstanding for the nation, at the end of February, had risen to $499.8 billion — almost $500 billion. Some $200.8 billion of this is held by the Federal Reserve and various government trust accounts, and these do not pose marketing or refunding problems. Of the remaining $279 billion of the public debt in private hands, about 23 percent — or 64.8 billion — is in the form of United States Savings Bonds. This sizable percentage is far and away the most stable part of our debt structure. Series E and H bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for six years, while other marketable instruments turn over in three years or less. This is important because the cost of borrowing money is one of the key debt management questions we face at Treasury. -6- So, Savings Bonds are good for America and good ,y^\ ^\ for the individual American. Sometimes I'm asked, "Francine, how can you be so enthusiastic about these six percent interest bonds, when inflation today is over 10 percent?" Well, that's a fair question, but I'm not sure it's the most important question. Savings Bonds help to promote thrift, and this is important because the first and basic choice anyone must make is to save or not to save. I think more and more people are realizing that thrift must be part of their general thinking. They must put aside for personal contingencies. They must take some personal responsibility for their future financial security. In other words, they must save. Viewed this way, six percent of something is clearly better than eight percent of nothing. Any kind of savings is good. I just happen to believe that United States Savings Bonds are one of the best, safest and most convenient ways to set money aside on a regular basis. Further, the old reliable six percent interest is competitive. A Portland banker, Mr. Tom Prideaux, has added up figures which show that $7 5 invested monthly in Savings Bonds over the past six years is worth more today than the same amount of money invested in stocks on the Moody's Industrial Index. Finally, Bonds are a tangible expression of faith in America. That's one reason Bond sales are on the rise. A record 6.9 billion were sold last year — dollar figure in 29 years. the highest So far this year, we are exceeding even that, with sales of almost 1.9 billion* in the first three months. I»m very grateful for the support of banks and bankers. You redeem bonds — support bond drives — and often head up bond programs. We are very appreciative of this kind of expert help. Savings Bonds are an optimistic, thriving program — and I like that. Those of us in Washington are sometimes accused of viewing the world through glasses. mud-colored And it's true that politicians and journalists.. tend to believe that the end of the world will arrive tomorrow night. A recent cover of Newsweek magazine proclaims that we live in — I quote — "A world of woes." A Time magazine cover features "America and the World: Moment of Danger." A And the daily headlines and nightly newscasts are replete with phrases like "retreat"; "shock"; "economic collapse"; and so on. Certainly it's true that America has had enormous problems these past few years. •1,890,000,000 We fought a war in Viet Nam and charged it. We sustained , world-wide crop failures. We have had an oil embargo and steeply rising oil prices. We have had the highest rate of inflation in our peacetime history, and the worst economic slump in a generation. And this year,for the first time, the Treasury Department is borrowing money that will not be repaid until the 21st century. These problems are well publicized. story But another escaped the front page headlines. And that story is how well our political and economic system functioned during a period of extraordinary stress. Let's look at two major economic problems and see what was predicted and what has happened. As we all know, the price of foreign oil shot skyward this past year. There were widespread pre- dictions of heatless winters, and gasless cars, and a collapse of the international financial system as vast sums of money moved from oil-consuming to oilproducing nations. What happened to these predictions? Well, banks and other financial institutions recycled their so-called petro dollars with considerable skill. The oil-consuming nations began making progress in establishing new international agreements. And new oil discoveries outside of the OPEC nations, and increased production inside the United States and elsewhere will mean an eventual lowering of prices. Further, few of us turned blue this winter, and most of our gas tanks were full — for a price. Our economic system shivered — but it remained alive. Let's look now briefly at two more economic problems — inflation and recession. Some critics have feared that we were on target for another Great Depression of the 1930's. Of course, we have a very real inflation and a real recession. But the economic slide is_ halting; factory orders are up; there has been a decline in the rate of inflation; and the prime lending rate has fallen. As my super boss, Treasury Secretary William Simon recently said, "Our economic recovery is on schedule." The free enterprise system still functions and the laws of supply and demand still apply. I am concerned, however, that our basic economic system is not very well understood by most Americans. I am concerned that some critics of our system go beyond attacking specific flaws to claiming that the entire system is unworkable, despite the fact that it has promoted the greatest mass prosperity — and the highest standard of living — in the world. Take the question of profits. To some writers, the concept that businessmen should make a profit is greedy at best and immoral at worst. Yet it's elementary that if it weren't for profits, we wouldn't have businesses or healthy companies to make our goods and provide.our jobs. healthy business that — society. It is not a in the vernacular —"rips off" It is the unprofitable business that harms us. It is the unprofitable business that must be propped up with someone else!s money and that means fewer jobs and other social costs. The real vice is not making profits but making losses. And perhaps one of our real problems is a lack of knowledge of the basic concepts of the free enterprise system. Your organization, the American Institute of Bank Women, is orientated towards education, and I applaud you for this. If I could leave you with one major thought, it is this. We Americans have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in material goods. We have looked long enough on the dark side of our world. Now it is time to speak to the good in each other. But we need to do more than speak — act. we need to As parents, we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge JQ of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace, and the legitimacy of profit. As bankers and business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually serving as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers. As citizens, we must demand that the news media make some effort to understand our economic system and to report the whole free-enterprise story. As voters, we must make certain that our elected officials — from D.C. to City Hall — understand that good economics is good politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years as a growing nation. Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping our society. Thank you. FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE STEPHEN S. GARDNER DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, SUPERVISION, REGULATION AND INSURANCE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, CURRENCY AND HOUSING THURSDAY, APRIL 10, 1975, 10:00 A.M. MR. CHAIRMAN AND MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE: I appreciate the opportunity to appear before you to present the views of the Treasury Department on the subject of variable rate mortgages and the proposal of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board to regulate such mortgages. I think it is wise to provide equitable regulation setting focth uniform terms and provisions of variable rate mortgages as the FHLBB proposes. It would be very unwise to prohibit by law the natural development of a new variety of ways to finance the purchase of homes. In addition, in view of the recent experience of all of us with inflation and the rising costs of money, utilities, fuel, propoerty taxes and all goods and services, I do not believe WS-276 - 2 - variable rate mortgages will be very popular for some time. And I am convinced that the homebuyer will not be denied the alternative of selecting a fixed rate mortgage. Let me expand each of these introductory statements briefly. The high incidence of private home ownership is a unique strength of our economy that has been long recognized and encouraged by Government. It is consistent to expect that equitable regulation of new methods of mortgage financing will be developed by our regulatory agencies. These agencies must be responsive to changing economic conditions. Consider the variety of consumer financial services that have evolved since World War II. Savings were once almost entirely of the passbook type. Today there are an expanding number of plans and instruments, certificates Of deposit in various maturities, passbook savings, payroll savings, and even such experiments as NOW accounts. Similarly, consumer loans and credit systems of all varieties and types have evolved from the simple fixed installment note plan of yesterday. Financial instruments and plans change as societies' needs change, and it is a great, although understandable, mistake not to recognize that in serving an infinite variety of consumers there exists many specialized markets for individuals with differing financial needs. To prohibit a way to finance homes that has already been useful in commercial finance and may have value in satisfying the needs of some people, seems to me to be wrong. I think market forces will eventually I I determine the place of variable rate mortgages. The developments I have cited in financial services are the result of competition. Our financial intermediary structure in the United States is just as unique as the incident of home ownership. There are 5,600 savings and loan institutions and mutual savings banks, 14,000 commercial banks and 23,000 credit unions in the country, most of them small. There are many other buyers of home mortgages ranging from insurance companies to government agencies. In this competitive climate, fixed rate mortgages will continue to be readily available as long as there is any consumer demand. Under the Board's proposed regulations, mortgage lenders will be permitted to use variable rate instruments -in which the initial mortgage contract rate may be changed to reflect changes in market rates of interest. Increases in the contract rate could not exceed one-half of one percent in any six month period nor exceed a maximum of two and one-half percent over the life of the mortgage. There would be no limitations on rate decreases. Interest rate adjustments may be effected through any combination of monthly payment and term. The variable rate would be tied to a FHLBB-approved index of market rates. Borrowers would receive 45 days notice of an - 4 - increase, including full disclosure as to terms and rates, and would be able to prepay without penalty. The VRM proposal and the Financial Institutions Act each seek to promote increased stability in the financial system during periods of high interest rates. In both cases the desire is to help assure a large and constant flow of mortgage credit which will be less sensitive to variations in interest rates. A constant flow of mortgage credit requires equivalent stability of savings flows which will only be assured when financial institutions are able to complete effectively for savings deposit dollars. The inability of mortgage-oriented thrift institutions to maintain their competitive strength during periods -of high interest rates is a familiar story most recently demonstrated by the events of 1974. The basic structural weakness of these institutions results from portfolio restrictions and resulting inflexibility in the face of changing economic conditions. Mortgage assets which dominate their portfolios are long lived, although not as long as generally assumed, and as a result adapt too slowly to changing interest rates. In contrast, savings deposits represent a pool of highly liquid funds responsive to what are primarily short-term market yields. During periods of high interest rates, short -term market yields rise to levels substantially above deposit rates, and savings are attracted to liquid, short -term investments outside the banking and thrift industries. Because the income of mortgage-oriented institutions is comparatively fixed, they cannot raise deposits rates sufficiently to offer a competitive response to alternative investments. The result is severe deposit outflows and a contraction of the amount of mortgage credit available to the home buyer. Ceilings on deposit rates were initially intended to assure adequate funds for housing by protecting thrift institutions from competition for savings deposits with commercial banks. The ceilings provide no protection from competition outside the banking system. The increasing ease and convenience of investing in money market instruments, coupled with a greater rate spread between savings deposits and alternative investments during periods of high interest rates, has resulted in the failure of rate ceilings to assure the availability of mortgage credit. Artificial rate regulation will not solve the disintermediation problem. Rather, financial institutions must be able to compete effectively with alternative investments for savings dollars. The expanded range of services concept in the Financial Institutions Act will provide a more constant-flow of deposits and will permit payment of more competitive rates to savers. - 6 - A related approach is advocated by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board in their VRM proposal which will also act to increase the income available for interest payments on savings during periods of high rates. As I have said, I don't think the VRM proposal should be viewed as either a dramatic boon or threat to. housing. From a consumer standpoint, there must be adequate disclosure of the conditions of the variable rate mortgage. This is already provided for by the Truth-in-Lending Act and the regulations proposed by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Further, no borrower should be forced to accept a variable rate morgage. Consumers should have the option of a fixed or a variable rate, and many people will be reluctant to give up the degree of certainty provided by a fixed rate mortgage. The major supply of new mortgages will continue to be on fixed terms and with fixed interest rates. When interest rates are high, some borrowers may well prefer variable rate mortgages in expectation of rate decreases and a lower initial rate. When rates are low and mortgage money is plentiful, competition among the thousands of financial institutions in this country will assure a wide choice of mortgage options for the consumer. This choice is further guaranteed by a number of continuting Federal programs for the direct purchase of mortgages by the Federal National Mortgage Association, the Government National Mortgage Association, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, and the guarantee of mortgage backed securities for sale to the public debt market. The VRM proposal would simply broaden the range of choices available to borrowers. However, the fundamental solutions can only come from appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, which will assure greater interest rate stability, and from the kind of restructuring of financial institutions that is proposed in the Financial Institutions Act. As long as interest rates can vary in reference to changing economic circumstances, the risk or gain inherent in long-term financing will exist. In the past the savings depositor in specialized mortgage lending institutions has assumed much of this risk. The failure of the sytem has required massive amounts of emergency Federal aid,and this has not been an effective remedy. I believe that the VRM proposal of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board strikes a reasonable balance between two objectives, that of providing a constant flow of mortgage funds and of helping avoid sharply varying payments by borrowers. There are many types of variable rate mortgages which use different formulas or methods. One or more of these may in time prove superior to the recommendations of the Federal Home - 8 - Loan Bank Board. Yet, I see no reason why the proposed regulations should not be implemented as an interim measure. Variable rate mortgages have not been incorporated in our own reform program because such instruments are generally legal and require no new statutory authority. The FHLBB proposal is a regulatory action and is consistent with present statutory authority and limitations. Summarizing then, the Treasury Department has no objection to the variable rate mortgage proposal of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. However, while providing a desirable option for some consumers, it will not make a major contribution to the solution of the twin problems of disintermediation and adequate flows of funds for housing. more basic To meet these objectives structural reform is required. I believe that the broader service base provided by the Financial Institutions Act will in time prove the most effective way to stabilize savings deposit flows. The concept of full service family banking where a single institution holds the mortgage, makes consumer loans, and offers checking account services, NOW account services, and a full range of financial services geared to meet the needs of the individual family, is the best hope for the future. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 9, 1975 TREASURY TO AUCTION $1-5 BILLION OF NOTES The Treasury will auction to the public under competitive and noncompetitive bidding up to $1.5 billion of 2-year notes. The coupon rate for the notes will be determined after tenders are allotted. Additional amounts of the notes may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and to Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. The notes will be Treasury Notes of Series H-1977 dated April 30, 1975, due April 30, 1977 (CUSIP No. 912827 EK 4) with interest payable semiannually on October 31, 1975, and thereafter on April 30 and October 31. They will be issued in registered and bearer form in denominations of $5,000, $10,000, $100,000 and $1,000,000, and they will be available for issue in book-entry form. Delivery of bearer notes will be made on April 30, 1975. Payment for the notes may not be made through tax and loan accounts. Tenders will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Tuesday, April 15, at any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch and at the Bureau of the Public Debt, Washington, D. C. 20226; provided, however, that noncompetitive tenders will be considered timely received if they are mailed to any such agency under a postmark no later than Monday, April 14. Each tender must be in the amount of $5,000 or a multiple thereof, and all tenders must state the yield desired, if a competitive tender, or the term "noncompetitive", if a noncompetitive tender. Fractions may not be used in tenders. The notation "TENDER FOR TREASURY NOTES" should be printed at the bottom of envelopes in which tenders are submitted. Competitive tenders must be expressed in terms of annual yield in two decimal places, e.g., 6.45, and not in terms of a price. Tenders at the lowest yields, and noncompetitive tenders, will be accepted to the extent required to attain the amount offered. After a determination is made as to which tenders are accepted, a coupon yield will be determined to the nearest 1/8 of 1 percent necessary to make the average accepted price 100.000 or less. That will be the rate of interest that will be paid on all of the notes. Based on such interest rate, the price on each competitive tender allotted will be determined and each successful competitive bidder will pay the price corresponding to the yield he bid. Price calculations will be carried to three decimal places on the basis of price per hundred, e.g., 99.923, and the determinations of the Secretary of the Treasury shall be final. Tenders at a yield that will produce a price less than 99.501 will not be accepted. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for $500,000 or less will be accepted in full at the average price of accepted competitive tenders, which price will be 100.000 or less. (OVER) -2Commercial banks, which for this purpose are defined as banks accepting demand deposits, and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, may submit tenders for the account of customers, provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from commercial and other banks for their own account, Federally-insured savings and loan associations, States, political subdividions or instrumentalities thereof, public pension and retirement and other public funds, international organizations in which the United States holds membership, foreign central banks and foreign States, dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon Federal Reserve Banks, and Government accounts. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 5 percent of the face amount of securities applied for. However, bidders who submit checks in payment on tenders submitted directly to a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury may find it necessary to submit full payment for the securities with their tenders in order to meet the time limits pertaining to checks as hereinafter set forth. Allotment notices will not be sent to bidders who submit noncompetitive tenders. Payment for accepted tenders must be completed on or before Wednesday, April 30, 1975, at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch or at the Bureau of the Public Debt in cash, in other funds immediately available to the Treasury by April 30, or by check drawn to the order of the Federal Reserve Bank to which the tender is submitted, or the United States Treasury if the tender is submitted to it, which must be received at such bank or at the Treasury no later than: (1) Friday, April 25, 1975, if the check is drawn on a bank in the Federal Reserve District of the Bank to which the check is submitted, or the Fifth Federal Reserve District in case of the Treasury, or (2) Wednesday, April 23, 1975, if the check is drawn on a bank in another district. Checks received after the dates set forth in the preceding sentence will not be accepted unless they are payable at a Federal Reserve Bank. Where full payment is not completed on time, the allotment will be canceled and the deposit with the tender up to 5 percent of the amount of securities allotted will be subject to forfeiture to the United States. Departmental theTREASURY WASHINGTON. D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 Contact: Robert E.Harper 964-5775 FOR RELEASE MONDAY, APRIL 14, 197 5 TREASURY SECRETARY SIMON NAMES ROBERT L. PARMELEE AS NEW SAVINGS BOND CHAIRMAN FOR WYOMING Robert L. Parmelee, Vice President and Wyoming General Manager, Mountain Bell, Cheyenne, is appointed Volunteer State Chairman for the Savings Bonds Program in Wyoming by Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon, effective immediately. He will head a committee of business, banking, labor, government and media leaders who -- in cooperation with the U. S. Savings Bonds Division -- assist in promoting Bond sales throughout the state. He succeeds A. Edward Kendig, President, First National Bank in Wheatland, who has served as Chairman since March 1966. Kendig will receive the Treasury Department "Award of Merit". Parmelee was born in Denver on August 30, 1918. He was graduated from the University of Denver in 1940. He joined Mountain Bell that same year. During World War Two, he saw service in the European Theater of Operations. Returning to Mountain Bell after the war, Parmelee held various positions in the Plant Department before becoming Denver Employment Manager in 1952. In 1954, he was promoted to General Personnel Supervisor in Denver. After a year as District Plant Manager in Helena, Mont., he moved to Phoenix in 1957, as District Commercial Manager. From 1961 to 1963, Parmelee worked for parent company American Telephone and Telegraph in New York in Personnel Administration. He returned to Denver in 1963, as General Manager of the Commercial and Marketing Departments, later assuming the same responsibility for the Plant Department. In February 1967, he was appointed Colorado-Wyoming Accounting Manager. He assumed his present post in September 1970. ( over ) - 2 Parmelee is active in a number of business, civic and professional organizations, including -- Director, Wyoming Industrial Development Corp.; Director, Wyoming Medical Service; Director, Wyoming Eancorporation; Vice President, Wyoming Taxpayers Association; Board of Governors, Goodwill Industries of Wyoming, Inc., and Chairman of the Board, United Way. He and his wife, the former Margaret Richardson, have two married daughters -- Mrs. Janice Elaine Groom of Denver, and Mrs. Carolyn Ruth Lawrence of Arlington, Tex. 0O0 CONTACT: L.F. POTTS 964-2951 April 11, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DETERMINATION OF SALES AT NOT LESS THAN FAIR VALUE ON CHICKEN EGGS IN THE SHELL FROM CANADA Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today a determination that chicken eggs in the shell from Canada are not being, nor are likely to be, sold at less than fair value within the meaning of the Antidumping Act, 1921, as amended. Notice of this decision will appear in the Federal Register of April 14, 1975. A Notice of Tentative Negative Determination was published in the Federal Register of January 13, 1975. Comparisons between purchase price and home market price revealed that purchase price was equal to or higher than the home market price of such or similar merchandise. During the period January through November 1974, imports of the subject merchandise from Canada were valued at approximately $4.5 million. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE v APRIL 11, 1975 PLANS ANNOUNCED FOR SPECIAL PAYMENTS TO SOCIAL SECURITY AND RAILROAD RETIREMENT BENEFICIARIES The Treasury Department today announced that planning has been completed for the special, one-time payments of $50 authorized for recipients of social security, supplemental security income, and railroad retirement benefits under the Tax Reduction Act of 1975, Public Law 94-12. The Social Security Administration and the Railroad Retirement Board are cooperating with the Department in the special payment program. The $50 payments will be issued to the more than 34 million individuals under the above programs who are paid a regular benefit for the month of March 19 75. Those individuals who receive benefits under two or more of the programs will be entitled to only one $50 payment. The conventional green Treasury checks will be used for these payments. Treasury disbursing offices will begin issuing the special payments in early May 1975, subject to enactment of appropriations by the Congress as required by the Act, but.due to heavy workloads resulting from tax rebates to individual taxpayers authorized under the same Act, will not complete the mailing until about June 20. Recipients should not be concerned, therefore, if their checks do not arrive during the latter part of May or early June. However, if a payment does not arrive by June 30 individuals entitled to the special payments should contact their regular benefit office. Attached are questions and answers containing additional information. oOo Attachment Note to Correspondents Press contacts: Disbursing Matters (Tsy) - James Abbott, tel: 202/964-2601 Benefit Matters (SSA) - Michael Naver, tel: 301/594-2200 WS-278 - 2QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON SPECIAL $50 PAYMENT QUESTION: Is the special $50 payment a social security benefit? ANSWER: No. Under the Tax Reduction Act of 1975, Congress emphasized that the $50 payments to people who get social security, supplemental security income, and railroad retirement benefits are not social security benefits. Rather, they are intended to give aged, blind, and disabled people a payment comparable in nature to the tax rebates which the new law provides to those who are working. QUESTION:.,. Why did Congress vote this payment? ANSWER: Congress has stated that the purpose of the special $50 payment is the same as that of the tax rebates— to inject new spending money into the economy to help the nation's economic recovery. QUESTION: Where does the money for the special payment come from? ANSWER: The payments are financed from general, revenues of the U.S. Treasury. They do not come from social security trust funds. QUESTION: Can I receive both the special $50 payment and a 1974 tax rebate? ANSWER: Yes, as long as you meet the eligibility requirements for each. QUESTION: When will my $50 special payment come? ANSWER: Assuming enactment of the necessary appropriation, the majority of the payments will be mailed out by the Treasury Department beginning in early May and continuing to about June 20. The payment will come automatically. You don't need to apply. QUESTION: What do I do if I haven't received my check by about June 20? ANSWER: Please wait until the end of June before you do anything. Your check may be on its way to you. If you get social security or SSI, and the special $50 payment has not arrived by the end of June, call your local social security office. Railroad retirement should get touch with the nearest beneficiaries Railroad Retirement BoardinOffice. - 3 - 7. QUESTION: How will I recognize my special $50 payment? ANSWER: The $50 special payment will be paid in a green U.S. Treasury check mailed in a brown envelope. A notice inside the envelope will tell you what the check is for. The questions and answers given below apply to railroad retirement benefits as well as social security benefits. QUESTION: My husband and I both get social security. Do we each get $50. ANSWER: Yes. 9. QUESTION: I'm a widow with eight children and we get social security. Do I get a separate $50 payment for myself and $50 for each child? ANSWER: Yes. You will get a $50 check for yourself and another check which will include a $50 payment for each of the children. 10. QUESTION Will my $50 payment be included with my social security check? ANSWER: No. The $50 payment will come in a separate check. 11. QUESTION Will the payment count as income to reduce my SSI, food stamps, Medicaid, or any other assistance I may be getting? ANSWER: No. The Tax Reduction Act expressly provides that the payments will not be counted as income or resource for calendar year 1975'for purposes of such assistance programs. Also, the payments will not count as taxable income. I applied in March for social security, but they told me that I wouldn't get my check until June. Do I get the $50 special payment? 12. QUESTION ANSWER: 13 . QUESTION Yes. As long as you applied for social security before April 1, and you receive a check for the month of March issued no later than August 31, you will get a $50 special payment. I received my first social security check April 3. Does this mean that I missed the March eligibility deadline for the $50 special payment? - 4ANSWER: 14. QUESTION ANSWER: 15. QUESTION ANSWER: ft No. The social security check you received in April is payment for March. Under social security your April 3 check is payment for the previous month. I received my first SSI check in April for the month of April. Does this entitle me to the $50 payment? No. Since entitlement to SSI benefits is based on need, the check comes in the same month as the month of eligibility to meet current needs. You would have had to get an SSI check for March, issued by August 31, 1975, to be eligible for the $50 special payment. I receive both social security and SSI. Does this mean I will get two $50 payments? , No. Each eligible person gets only one $50 payment. 16. QUESTION I get a special age 72 payment from social security each month. Do I get a $50 payment too? ANSWER: Yes. 17. QUESTION I'm eligible for social security but I didn't.get a check for March because I was working. Am I eligible? ANSWER: No. People whose social security check for March was withheld because of work do not get the $50 special payment. 18. QUESTION- I get social security, but I didn't get a check for March because I owed the Government for a previous month's overpayment. Am I eligible? ANSWER : Yes. Although you did not. receive a check, you were, in effect, paid for March. 19. QUESTION: I am eligible for social security because I am a widow with minor children in my care. However, the children were not in my care in March. Am I eligible? If you did not receive a check for the month of ANSWER: March because the children were not in your care, you will not receive the $50 special payment. I think I am eligible for social security, but my 20. QUESTION case is being appealed. Will I get the special payment? - 5 - ANSWER: Only if you receive a check for the month of March issued by August 31- 21. QUESTION I applied, for social security in March because I was eligible, but I decided not to take my first check until May. Will I get the special payment? ANSWER: If you change the month in which you elect your benefits to start from May to March you can get the special payment. See your social security office. 24. 25. QUESTION I got a social security payment for March but it was reduced because of my work. Do I still get the $50 special payment? ANSWER As long as you received a social security check for March, no matter how small, you are eligible for the $50 special payment. QUESTION As of March, I am entitled to social security father's benefits based on the Supreme Court decision in March. Will I also get the special payment? ANSWER: Yes, if you applied before April 1 and if your March check is issued by August 31. Even if you applied before April 1 only for lump sum death benefits, that application holds for all social security benefits clue you, including the new court-ordered father's benefits. You said the special payments will be mailed out by June 20. How do I get mine if my eligibility is not established until July or August? QUESTION ANSWER After June 20, the special, payments will be sent out monthly as the lists are updated. If you ^ i V V S A u P S t a S o c l a l se curity check for the month of^March, chances are your special payment the middle will arrive by the end of Aaugust i ^ " ^ or — ^ ~ A A, - -of September. QUESTION How will the special payment affect the benefit tSCgertMryear?eCUrlty ANSWER: beneflcl «ieB are supposed The special payment will have no effect on any future benefit increases. E^ E EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY / /' WASHINGTON, D.C. 70506 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, April 10, 1975 FOR INFOPMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY FILES BEFORE THE CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD Attached is a copy of the Council on Wage and Price Stability's answer in support of World Airways' motion for an expedited hearing on its application for a certificate of public convenience and necessity authorizing it to engage in scheduled transcontinental service. While the Council takes no position at this time on the question of whether this application should be granted, we believe that World Airways' proposal deserves an immediate hearing because they have presented a convincing case that its low fare proposal will attract new passengers without eroding the traffic of existing transcontinental carriers. The Council supports the concept that carriers should, be encouraged to be innovative in providing high density, no frills services and the Council strongly urges the Civil Aeronautic Board to grant World's proposal a prompt hearing. o CWPS-40 0 o Before the CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD WASHINGTON, D. C. Application ot WORLD AIRWAYS, INC. Docket 27693 for a certificate of public convenience and necessity (transcontinental scheduled service). Answer of the Council on Wage and Price Stability In Support of Motion for an Expedited Hearing Tursuant to Rule 18(a-2) of the Board's Rules of Practice, the Council on Wage and Price Stability (the "Council") hereby submits its answer in support of the motion of World Airways for an expedited hearing on its application for a certificate of public convenience and necessity authorizing it to engage in scheduled transcontinental service. */ V The Council takes no position at this time on the ultimate question of whether World's application should be granted. As noted hereafter, that question turns on the resolution of a nurv.bi.-r of subsidiary factual questions through the hearing process as required bv the Federal Aviation Act. Rather, the Council's present position is sin.ply that that application should be set down for hearing as soon as possible so that the important issues which it raises may be given the consideration by all affected parties which thev deserve. - 2 On April 2, 1975, World Airways filed the subject application for a certificate together with a motion for expedited hearing. The carrier proposes to operate daily scheduled services between the New York and Baltimore-Washington metropolitan areas, on the one hand, and the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas, en the other hand. It would utilize so-called satellite airports on the West Coast (Ontario International in the Los Angeles area and Oakland International in the Bay area) and two relatively uncongested airports on the East Coast (Newark International in the New York ,ilt area and Baltimore-Washington International). World proposes daily nonstou round-trip service between New York and both West Coast cities and a daily nonstop round trip between Baltimore and Los Angeles. Baltimore-San Francisco service would be on a one-stop basis through a continuation of the Baltimore-Los Angeles service. */ */ Although World proposes an initial pattern of three cFaily transcontinental round trips, the certificate it seeks would permit an unlimited expansion of service in the markets. Indeed, section 401(e)(4) of the Federal Aviation Act prohibits the Board from so conditioning a carrier's certificate as to restrict the carrier's right to schedule "as the development of the business and the demands of the public shall require." - 3 The most intriguing feature of World's application is its proposal to break ranks with the existing transcontinental carriers (American, TWA, and United) by offering £• genuine pricd*break to persons willing to forego the frills (such as expensive meals and costly reservation systems) usually associated with transcontinental air travel and to accept the loss of comfort and the inconvenience associated with a service operated at a relatively high average load factor of 75 percent. The price break which World proposes is substantial. World's proposed one-way fare of $89, exclu- sive of taxes and security charges, is naif the existing $180 coach fare, the lowest fare available at all times to all travelers. It is $17 less than the lowest adult promotional fare, the winter weekday demand scheduled fare. Unlike the latter fare, World's fare would be available seven days a week, year 'round and, subject to space availability, requires neither advance reservations nor advance ticketing. Like demand scheduled fares, World's proposal includes a penalty for canceled reservations. World projects that the new low fare will bring transcontinental air travel within the reach of - 4 millions of persons who cannot now afford it. __/ The carrier anticipates that the introduction of its service would increase the total pool of passengers ^ available to all transcontinental carriers in much the same way in which transatlantic travel has been stimulated over the years by the availability of low cost charter flights. Not all of the stimulated traffic would be carried by World. It projects an increase in the transcontinental traffic of the Big Three carriers, assuming they match its fares. - * -• • At the same time, World forecasts a $2.7 30 -~ million after-tax profit for its operations, equal to the 12 percent return on investment prescribed by the Board for ratemaking purposes in the Domestic Passenger Fare Investigation. However, World proposes to accept certificate conditions which will place the risk squarely on it, and not the public, if it has miscalculated. It states its willingness to have a load factor standard of 7 5 percent imposed upon it for */ The carrier contends that, at present fares, transcontinental air travel is within reach of only 30 percent of the East and West Coast households while its service would be affordable by two-thirds of those households. - 5 ratemaking purposes, and its willingness to have the reasonableness of its fares judged on a strict fully allocated cost basis. Its services would not be eligible for subsidy. The authority would be limited to a five-year experimental period. On the other hand, the authority would be permissive, allowing World to withdraw from service if the financial results so require. We believe this innovative proposal deserves an immediate hearing. In a recent series of pleadings, __/ we have told the Board of our statutory duties to monitor the inflationary impact of activities in both the public and private sectors of the economy; to review and appraise the programs and policies of the agencies of the United States for the purpose of determining the extent to which they contribute to inflation; and to report our findings and recommendations to the President and Congress. **/ 0 */ See the Council's answer to complaints in Dockets 27607 et al and 27657 et al. **/ See the Council on Wage and Price Stabilitv Act oT 1974 (Public Law No. 93-387) . Pursuant to that mandate we have advised the Board and the Congress of our concern with the sharp rise in scheduled air fares, amounting to nearly 20 percent over the last 18 months and have recommended a substantial reduction in airline fares as a small but important step in curing inflation. At the same time, we understand the concern shared by the Board and the industry over the recent decline in air carrier traffic and the resulting deterioration in carrier profitability. We believe that, while some of the traffic problems can be traced to the major recession being experienced by the economy generally, much of the problem rests closer to home and is tied directly to the recent increases in airline fares. Accordingly, we believe that a substantial reduction in airline fares is necessary to correct the industry's economic problems by bringing back the discretionary traveler. Thus, we have urged the Board to permit the price mechanism to work by granting to each carrier a great degree of flexibility in establishing noa-discriminatory promotional faies, oir-peak pricing, and the like. World has made a strong initial showing that its low fare proposal will attract new passengers to its services without eroding the traffic of the existing transcontinental carriers. The immediate public benefit of the lower airline fares it would offer is obvious. Over the longer term, the competitive spur which would be provided by its entry into markets closed to outside competition for twenty years can only improve the efficiency of all who serve the markets. For these reasons, we urge the Board to set World's application for hearing as soon as possible. We believe it deserves a hearing for yet another important reason. The airline industry is presently offering far too narrow a range of services. Its "product mix" is aimed, unfortunately, at the high income traveler. In our view, there are many travelers who would be willing to accept a lower level or quality of service at a lower fare were such a service available. Indeed, as World points out, such has been the experience in low-cost charters across the North Atlantic. Thus, we believe that the carriers should be encouraged to innovate in providing high density, no-frills services and urge the Board to grant World's proposal a prompt hearing. World's proposal also holds out the promise of providing more fuel-efficient service. By operating at an average load factor of 75 percent, World estimates that it will consume 46 percent less fuel per passenger than conventional operations at a 55 percent load factor. In view of the national policy to reduce overall fuel consumption by increasing fuel-efficiency, this aspect of World's proposal provides yet another reason for giving the carrier's application immediate consideration. Finally, as World notes in i ;s motion, its application meets the standards for deterrining hearing priorities set down in section 399.60 of the Board's regulations and is consistent with the mandates of section 102 of the Federal Aviation Act. In any event, World is entitled to a speedy hearing on its application pursuit <o the provisions of section 401(c) of the Act. . We recognize that the proposal is controversial and will engender heated dispute over a wide variety of factual matters — World's traffic -forecast, its costs, the amount of traffic which will be diverted from other carriers, and so forth. Those issues are not ripe for resolution in the present posture of this-proceeding. Thus, for example, allegations that Worl 's traffic forecasts are inflated cannot form the basis for a denial of its motion. The very purpose of the hearing which World seeks is to provide a forum for the presentation of evidence leading to the resolution of the factual questions in dispute. - 9 - World's application and the accompanying motion contain the supporting material required by the Board's regulations and establish a prima facie case justifying the grant of its application. No more can be required in order for the carrier to obtain a hearing. WHEREFORE, The Council urges the Board to grant World's motion for expedited hearing and to set its application for hearing as speedily as possible. Respectively submitted, Georg4 C. Eads Assistant Director for Government Operations and Research t- UAUwAyrXyO (/#4ijJ**i Vaughn C. Williams General Counsel lyyyyiX^ J. Michael Roach Assistant General Counsel April 10, 1975 Removal Notice The item identified below has been removed in accordance with FRASER's policy on handling sensitive information in digitization projects due to copyright protections. Citation Information Document Type: Article Number of Pages Removed: 8 Author(s): Title: Interview with William E. Simon Date: 1975-05-01 Journal: Playboy Magazine Volume: Page(s): URL: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.7 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.7 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on April 17, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF bills ACCEPTED 13-week bills 26-week COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing July 17, 1975 High Low Average maturing Discount Investment Price Rate 1/ Rate 98.627 a/ 5.432% 5.60% 98.591 5.574% 5.75% 98.600 5.538% 5.71% October 16, 1975 Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ 97.092 97.024 97.046 5.752% 5.887% 5.843% 6.02% 6.17% 6.12% a/ Excepting 1 tender of $10,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 48%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 29%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS District Received Accepted Received Accepted Boston $ 52,760,000 New York '. ,882,115,000 Philadelphia 33,620,000 Cleveland 76,460,000 Richmond 42,475,000 Atlanta 58,910,000 Chicago 338,315,000 St. Louis 60,030,000 Minneapolis 23,240,000 Kansas City 71,070,000 Dallas 40,690,000 San Francisco 198,175,000 $ 40,460,000 $ 22,335,000 2,061,475,000 4,018,800,000 31,070,000 7,465,000 56,460,000 52,410,000 33,965,000 40,960,000 54,985,000 31,760,000 117,965,000 217,240,000 50,470,000 50,620,000 23,240,000 19,160,000 64,670,000 29,570,000 35,690,000 23,430,000 130,175,000 213,490,000 $ 12,335,000 2,328,380,000 7,165,000 20,110,000 24,460,000 30,660,000 56,885,000 24,620,000 19,160,000 26,870,000 23,430,000 126,350,000 TOTALS $4>877,860,000 $2,700,625,000 b/$4,727,240,000 $2,700,425,000 __l b/ Includes $547,755,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. c/ Includes $195,210,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,400,000,000 » ° r thereabouts, to be issued April 24, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated January 23, 1975, and to mature July 24, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XF8), originally issued in the amount of $2,201,755,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated and to mature October 23, 1975 April 24, 1975, (CUSIP No. 912793 XU5). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing April 24, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $4,605,595,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,469,505,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, April 21, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive, tenders for each issue for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on April 24, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing ment. April 24, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954, the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills . are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20221 TELEPHONE W04-2041 bH FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 15, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $1.5 billion of the $4.1 billion of tenders received from the public for the 2-year notes auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield Highest yield Average yield 7.37% 7.45% 7.43% 1/ The interest rate on the notes will be 7-3/8%. At the 7-3/8% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.009 High-yield price Average-yield price 99.863 99.900 The $1.5 billion of accepted tenders includes 74 % of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $0.3 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $0.1 billion of tenders were accepted at the average-yield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Excepting 6 tenders totaling $315,000 The Bond Between Us A friend of mine once said that 10 minutes was enough for anyone to tell what he or she knows; after that, you tell what you don't know. I agree, so I'll take only 10 minutes of your time to tell you what I know about United States Savings Bonds and why I'm sold on them — and why I hope you are too. I am so sold on the Savings Bonds program that I accepted my second appointment, as National Director of the Program, even though it came without a penny of salary. And I remain so convinced of its value that I have traveled over 78,000 miles to 26 states, during the past nine months, to talk about bonds. These many miles of travel stretch all the way from the beaches of Hawaii to the blizzards of Minnesota to the dining rooms of Dayton. On these trips I have met hundreds of wonderful volunteers like yourselves. And I have had the chance to see again that the real wealth of America is not inanimate money, but our living land, our terrifically alive people, and the Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, TSIA, Dayton, Ohio on April 16, 1975 /0L extra-ordinary ideas and attitudes that shaped our laws and institutions and propelled us so far in our . 200 years as a Nation. In these travels outside of Washington, D.C, I realize again that America is much more than rising unemployment and sinking Dow-Jones averages. It is 212 million people working, making homes, going to school, building and holding together a great Nation. And we are a great Nation. We set world standards in education, in per-capita income, and in pioneering new fields. We are a country where the medium income of our families has doubled in the past 25 years, even taking inflation into account; a country where 60 percent of American families own their own homes; where even our taxes of all kinds -- compared to our income — are still the second lowest among the 13 top industrial nations of the world. United States Savings Bonds are a part of this going and growing America. I suspect they do more to promote the habit of regular saving among Americans than all of the family lectures on thrift ever given. The Oklahoma farmer and the Ohio housewife may have little concept of a Treasury note or a mutual fund » investment, but they do know about Savings Bonds. And they do save. In 1974, we had the largest bond sales since World War Two — almost $6.9 billion. hi Savings Bonds are. a trusted part of everyone's life — of America's life — and they have been ever since most of us were earning our first quarter. Bonds belong in America. But now and then we need to look again at this old friend of ours and rediscover the "what" and "why" of them. that right now. Let's do Let's look at 3 main reasons why we can urge people to say "yes" to Savings Bonds. First they are a sound personal investment. They are secure in a troubled world. The payroll savings plan is a painless way to receive six percent interest on your savings. And this can equal a higher rate of interest when you consider the tax advantages — which most of us are doing with special vigor this tax-paying season. By the way, I've discovered that some people still don't know about our 6 percent interest, and other people don't understand that you pay no state or local tax on bonds and that you can defer the federal tax until you cash them in. Bonds are a great way to save, but they can also be an investment. Banker Tom Prideaux of the National Bank of Oregon notes that $7 5 invested in Savings Bonds monthly since December of 1968 is worth more than $75 invested monthly in stocks making up Moody's Industrial Index. That old reliable 6 percent comes through! (d ? Savings Bonds also help our government in its debt management, by providing an efficient way to meet a sizable percentage'Of borrowing needs at a relatively low cost to the nation. When the Treasury is able to finance through nonmarketable securities, the borrowing is kept out of the marketplace and thus does not directly compete with corporate and state and local borrowers. It's comforting to know that about 23 percent of the public debt in private hands is in the form of United States Savings Bonds. Further, Savings Bonds have a long maturation period. Series E and H bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for six years, while other marketable instruments turn over, on the average, in three years or less. The cost of borrowing money is sizable, so you can see why holding bonds a long time is important to the government, and hence to us as taxpayers. Finally, these bonds are a tangible expression of faith in America and her future. of us to say, "I love America." It is hard for most It is easier to buy bonds or to work for the program and to show our love that way. Perhaps that's why, in these difficult times, the sale of bonds is rising. I grew up in the little town of Mountainair, New Mexico, where my parents provided me with a diet of pinto beans and patriotism. The pinto beans were r 69 / sometimes scarce, but never the patriotism. During World War Two, the American Legion asked several of us young girls to sell bonds in front of the Mountainair Post Office on Saturday mornings. We young girls tried very hard to see which of us could sell the most bonds, and my proud father would often round up his cronies and direct them to my table. I usually sold the most bonds and I thought at the time it was my scintilating smile. Years later I realized that my father was head of the local draft board and this just might have made a difference. After the war ended and I graduated from college and became a .young wife and mother, I cashed in the bonds my father had bought me so that my husband Ed and I could buy our first home. This was in the booming postwar economy years of the 1950's and 60's. Now today, in my middlessence, I'm selling bonds again. And, from my Washington office as the United States Treasurer and National Director, I see more fully their debt reduction aspect. Most of us have seen bonds from these 3 viewpoints of the patriotic, the personal benefits, and the boost that bonds give to the country's debt management. From every standpoint, Savings Bonds make sense — and dollars. They are good for the individual, good for the country, and good for the future. w 6 But selling bonds by the billions doesn't just happen. It takes a small handful of Treasury people and a very large handful of volunteers. Easily ninety- five percent of the people working for our program are volunteers like yourselves. I know that we ask a lot of our Bond volunteers. We ask busy, important people to take time to become personally concerned and involved. The only reason we can do this is because we feel our product is so great. Our national goal in 1975 is to sell at least 6.8 billion in bonds and to enroll 2.4 million new or increased savers. We are starting out very well, with sales of almost $1.9 billion in bonds for the first 3 months. That's the greatest bond sales for this period in 3 0 years. As Savings Bonds volunteers, you have an excellent message. You have a ready market. You have some very good Savings Bonds people here in Ohio and you will have the help of a nationwide series of public service ads featuring our Bicentennial slogan "Take Stock in America 200 years at the same location." But the Savings Bonds job can never be done in Washington or New York alone. It is a grass roots program, and the results depend on your personal involvement and the involvement of others like you across the country. record — Let's roll up our sleeves and roll up a we can do it this year. — 197 5 is the beginning of our third century as a Nation. It's a super time to join the program. Let's make the bicentennial year a "buy bonds" year as well, by reminding people what we are selling and why we are selling. Let's look up from our desks and out the windows at America — at her green hills and brown prairies and industrial might — her ideas and institutions and people — and remember why it is that the word "America" is such a special word everywhere on earth. And then — let's get up from those desks and go out and do the job. Thank you. 1(1 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY Statement of Under Secretary of the Treasury Edward C. Schmults Before the Subcommittee on Revenue Sharing Senate Committee on Finance Wednesday, April 16, 1975 at 10:00 A. M. Mr. Chairman, I very much appreciate this opportunity to offer to you and the members of the Subcommittee some reflections based on the Administration's review of the first years of the General Revenue Sharing program. To determine whether, and in what form, the program should be extended past its present expiration in December 197 6, the Treasury Department, Office of Management and Budget and the Domestic Council have since last summer all been actively involved in a joint effort to assess this relatively new and unique form of Federal financial assistance. It has been my privilege to serve as chairman of the steering group directing this study. Our review has considered issues raised by interested groups,- by members of Congress, by various privately and governmentally-sponsored evaluations of General Revenue Sharing, and by our own staff. We have also taken a look at a large number of approaches offered to strengthen the program. WS-279 - 2I note, Mr. Chairman, that the press release announcing these hearings indicates interest in how this program is being monitored. The Administration, of course, is also vitally concerned that we have sufficient information to know whether the American people are receiving benefits from General Revenue Sharing in proportion to its cost to them. This interest prompted the President to provide for the internal Administration review which I have just described. When one considers the full range of attention being focused on revenue sharing, it could be argued that this is the most closely examined program in the history of Federal assistance. At least four Congressional committees have held hearings on GRS since its enactment, and further hearings in the future are likely. Examinations of various aspects of the program have been or are being pursued by the General Accounting Office, the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, the National Science Foundation, the Brookings Institution, the National Revenue Sharing Clearinghouse, as well as a number of other private groups. We in the Administration have tried to take account of the findings of those studies which are currently available in putting together our proposal to renew revenue sharing. We realize that additional important information may yet appear and are fully willing to take it into account. However, it has been our conclusion that we should proceed to y seek early renewal of the General Revenue Sharing program. We are doing so, first, because we are convinced that the program has been largely successful in meeting its original objectives. Secondly, State and local governments, in order to make wise use of funds provided through the program, must know about its future by the early fall of this year. Decision-making on the 1977 fiscal year budgets of many States and localities begins early this fall when agencies submit their requests to their budget offices. If no action is taken on renewal of the program by then, States and localities could only rely on the GRS funding that is provided in the present law for the first half of fiscal year 1977. This need of States, cities, towns, and counties to know about their future revenue sharing entitlements is greater than their need for advance information about categorical aids. Shared revenues usually become a part of the general fund of recipient governments, which is not normally the case with other aids. These funds support essential day-to-day services which would in many cases be eliminated or paid for with higher taxes, were revenue sharing terminated. Dependence on the program to provide vital services is especially great in the Nation's cities where General Revenue Sharing accounts for over a third of all Federal aid and where there is often the most financial pressure. - 4 There is no intention to suggest here that there are only negative arguments, such as the dependency of recipients, to justify renewal of the program. I only make these points to explain our desire for action now. On the whole, the Administration is satisfied that the General Revenue Sharing program has been a major success in accomplishing what it sought to do. We are, of course, aware that there is criticim of the program for not solving serious problems of special concern to some. Our view is that General Revenue Sharing cannot be expected to fill too many roles. In fact, if it'is excessively weighted down with various restrictions and incentives to target its impact toward specific problems and groups, the program will lose its ability to fulfill its basic mission. Its basic objective is to provide a form of Federal financial assistance to State and local governments which can be used flexibly to meet needs which they themselves identify by means of their own choosing. It is obvious how extensive restrictions on the uses to which States and communities put shared funds would .limit the ability of the program to play this role. There are hundreds of other categorical and bloc grants which can be used to deal with specific problems or to help specific groups of people. General Revenue Sharing is designed as part of an effort to - 5 provide a more balanced array of Federal aid to States and communities. The Administration does not feel that GRS competes with or replaces other aids. Rather, it serves different and equally important functions. An example of one of those functions involves Revenue Sharing's interaction with those categorical grants which, along with providing assistance, create additional needs which they do not provide the means for meeting- For instance, a program might support the development of science courses in schools without providing the necessary textbooks. Shared revenues can be used to fili in such gaps in need. Further, the incentive of available Federal grant money and the matching requirements often associated with this money, has at times distorted State and local budgetary decision-making so that the real priority needs of their citizens are not being met. The implementation of the revenue sharing concept of assistance has meant greatly increased Federal help for our cities and counties and for many small communities, as well. Many places with small population in the past have either not been eligible for, or aware of, Federal programs or have been unable to cope with the expensive and burdensome application requirements often associated with them. General Revenue Sharing provides aid free of much of this red tape. - 6 While categorical aids are clearly a necessary part of a balanced system of aid, they tend to be an expensive way to provide aid because of administrative burdens on both the Federal Government and the recipient. By the same token, the Congress and the Federal Executive have rightly been concerned about the often unnecessary costs and uncoordinated effects of grants which overlap and duplicate one another. A balanced system of Federal intergovernmental aid has become essential to a vital Federal system of decentralized government, with its ability to respond to the diversity of our Nation and to protect our freedoms from the threat of overly centralized power. The enactment of General Revenue Sharing has meant an infusion of funds — drawn from the generally more efficient, equitable, and economically responsible Federal tax system — closest to the people. to those governments These funds have helped enable such jurisdictions to perform those public tasks demanded by Americans which they can do best. I have already mentioned several times the role of shared revenues in meeting "needs"! Most of the issues which have surfaced during the Administration's review of this program relate to the degree to which it fulfills various views of what the priority needs of today's America are. - 7 - ' Basically, the response of GRS to serious needs can be evaluated in terms of three considerations (1) Federal as opposed to State and local needs, (2) the uses to which the funds are put, and (3) the pattern in which the funds are distributed among States and communities. The point is sometimes made that in light of the huge current Federal deficits there are no Federal revenues to be shared. The Administration is, of course, fully aware of and concerned about the state of the national budget. We, however, do not view General Revenue Sharing as a nonessential program, justifiable only when there are Federal budgetary surpluses. In fact, the Administration definitely considers it a critical use of funds since a strong Federal system is clearly a national priority of the first order. Further, when elected State and local officials, who are close to public problems, allocate resources to solve these problems, we feel that there is normally a good return on the money spent. State and local governments on the whole are currently, and will in the foreseeable future continue to be, faced with deficits. Many surpluses in State and local accounts which we heard so much about a couple of years ago were of a very temporary nature and have since disappeared. These governments have felt the negative impacts of inflation and - 8 higher energy costs on their expenditures. Further, the budgets of State governments have suffered from the effects of several longer-run developments in State-local finances. Were the revenue sharing program to be terminated or reduced, they would be forced to cut vital services, raise taxes to provide these services or both. Greater deficits, more borrowing, unemployment in the public and private sectors would also likely result. It is clear that these unhappy events would not contribute to national economic recovery, since State and local expenditures usually supply a major stimulus for the economy. To withdraw GRS would exacerbate the stagnation in these expenditures which has already taken place. A second way in which one can reasonably assess the degree to which revenue sharing funds are meeting important needs is to look at the problem areas and population groups on which they are being spent. State governments have reported to the Office of Revenue Sharing that during FY 1974, 82% of shared revenues allocated to them had been utilized for operations and maintenance purposes, while 18% had been expended for capital purposes. Local recipients classified 52% of their expenditures of revenue sharing funds as meeting operation or maintenance needs and 48% going for capital commitments. - 9As a group, States reported spending over half (52%) of GRS funds in educational uses in the form of assistance for primary and secondary education at the local level. Otherwise, States reported allocation of their GRS monies fairly evenly for public transportation services (8%), health (7%) , multi-purpose general government (7%), and social services for poor and aged (6%). Local governments stated in their use reports to the Office of Revenue Sharing that the largest portion of their entitlements (36%) were for public safety services. Public transportation service (19%)' , general government capital expenditures (11%), environmental protection services, health (7%), and recreation (7%) accounted for most of the remainder of the funds covered by the Entitlement Period 4 (FY 1974) use reports. We are all aware of how difficult a task it is to really identify the functional uses to which revenue sharing money is put due to the fact that it usually mingles with the other resources of the jurisdiction. The Administration has considerable confidence in the .ability of elected State and local officials to target money onto the real problems which they must face on a day-to-day basis. We are hesitant to slow achievement of this basic GRS role through the application of restrictive guidelines. As I suggested earlier - 10 there are other programs to meet specific nationallyidentified goals. The Administration believes that revenue sharing is being successfuly used by the great majority of State and local governments to meet needs of concern to all Americans. The General Accounting Office reports, findings by the Brookings Institution and Office of Revenue Sharing actual use reports all show a considerable amount of shared revenue being devoted to new spending. The program was intended to allow, along with other things, hard-pressed jurisdictions to maintain essential existing services, to reduce taxes, or to prevent tax increases. It has worked to do so. The Brookings study suggests that GRS funds are most likely to be used to substitute for other funds where fiscal pressure is greatest — at the local as opposed to the State level, among urban as opposed to rural States; and among older, larger, more densely populated jurisdictions, as opposed to those with contrasting characteristics. This illustrates that many States and communities are using GRS to maintain vital services which they might not otherwise be able to do. We believe that revenue sharing has had a significant benefit for the poor and minorities, and has contributed in an.important way to meeting social goals in general. Those funds reported to the Office of Revenue Sharing as spent on poor and the aged are not an accurate reflection of the total social impact of the program. For example, States report using over one-half of their shared funds for education — an expenditure which certainly must be considered of great social importance for all Americans. Funds reported as spent on health, transportation, public safety, environment, recreation, are often of assistance to the underprivileged. For instance, there are cases of GRS money being used under the public transportation category to subsidize transportation for the elderly or expenditures identified as for public safety being devoted to drug abuse programs. Capital expenditures for hospitals, schools, low-cost housing or for equipment also are often of great benefit to those who are especially needy. Construction projects may be badly needed by citizens of States and communities, since they are often the first items set aside in times of fiscal crisis, and may be also delayed by legal debt limits placed on local governments. To the degree that there is any hesitance on the part of revenue sharing recipients to spend funds derived from the program on social purpose, this results from a number of circumstances, some of which are: the legal placement of such responsibility at other levels of government; restriction against the use of shared funds for direct - 12 welfare payments to individuals by the terms of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act itself; confusion about the meaning of the Act's restriction against matching of Federal funds; and uncertainty about the continuation of the program, which steers recipients away from recurring social expenditures. Renewal of the program, along with continuing experience with it should lessen the frequency of the latter two concerns. Finally, it is important to note that regardless of any present hesitance to direct GRS monies into programs to aid the poor and minorities, there is little doubt that the presence of these funds releases other recipient funds for these uses. It is true that revenue sharing entitlements have been widely used for tax reduction and stabilization, debt avoidance, and for public safety needs. If the Brookings finding are generally applicable, it does not seem that GRS, as once feared, has been widely used for increases in employee pay benefits thus far. it would also seem difficult to argue that public safety expenditures made from revenue sharing entitlements are not usually justifiable and of benefit to all citizens in most places. State and local jurisdictions are justified in using GRS to reduce excessively high taxes, which are often highly regressive and harmful to the economic life of the community and Nation as a whole. They can, for instance, - 13 - \ cities, thereby seriously eroding the tax base of the jurisdiction and placing an even greater burden of taxation on the remaining poorer population. Thus, in many cases, tax reduction can be tax reform. Another important way in which General Revenue Sharing responds to serious needs is the manner in which it distributes funds among our States and communities. The existing formulas, designed in the Congress as a product of competing philosophical, geographic, and jurisdictional interests, are essentially equitable and appear to work reasonably well. The Brookings Institution, the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, and the General Accounting Office found that generally greater pex capita entitlements go to poorer, as compared to richer, States. For instance, Brookings calculated that for 1972, Mississippi received $39.90 per capita as compared to $28.05 for California. Our hard-pressed center cities, according to ACIR and Brookings, also fare better on a per capita basis than their wealthier suburbs and other surrounding areas. Brookings also reports that the current formulas further take into account the high costs of government in urban areas by directing higher than average (as compared to other county areas) per capita amounts of shared revenues into the most densely populated county areas and into the county areas with over one million - 14 population. Similarly incorporated areas receive much more per capita than unincorporated areas, and county areas containing the largest city in each State receive higher than the average per capita entitlements for local governments in their State outside of these principal counties. In fact, during 1972 counties falling within standard metropolitan statistical areas received over 7 0% of local shared revenue. The needs of black Americans are addressed by the formulas' allocation to county areas with the largest nonwhite population of much higher than average per capita entitlements. The Administration feels that these descriptions about the distribution of funds among States and localities supports a conclusion that the basic allocation formulas are performing reasonably well ir responding to need. This is especially true in light of the difficulty of designing a nationwide formula which meets the varying governmental and fiscal situations across the country, as well as the demands of conflicting interests. Before concluding my testimony, Mr. Chairman, I would like to comment on the impact which General Revenue Sharing is having on the political process in States, cities, counties, and towns. The first Brookings Institution report found some increase in citizen involvement among a sizable fraction of the jurisdictions included in its sample. A similarly ./-»-.ui^ x J_.-_ nore public participation in the making of revenue sharingrelated decisions than on other local issues. It must be admitted that such data provides a less than :omplete or convincing picture of the impact of revenue sharing on the process of government. However, in a broader sense the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 has helped to revitalize democratic government in the States and communities. The hands of elected officials who are responsible to the voters and who are concerned with a variety of issues have been strengthened in comparison to appointive, single program oriented* often distant Federal, State, and local administrators. After all, it is these sleeted executives who have the most to say about use of shared funds. Increased public concern about the knowledge of the way decisions are made locally has often resulted from the responsibility of allocating shared revenues among various uses. National interest groups, newly concerned about State and local affairs due to GRS, have helped generate some of this State and local activity, as have the public discussions surrounding publication of various studies Df revenue sharing, the original enactment of the bill, and its upcoming renewal. The Administration is hopeful that bhe extent and effectiveness of citizens involvement will - 16 increase with time as citizens and the groups who represent them better learn how, when and where to make their weight felt. In conclusion, Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, President Ford and the Administration are generally satisfied with the way in which the General Revenue Sharing program has met its original objectives. It has provided flexible aid within a balanced system of Federal intergovernmental assistance, provided States and localities the means to meet the vital needs of their citizens, strengthened the political process at the governmental levels closest to the people and helped to revitalize our Federal form of government. There is, of course, room for improvement in any program as well as a need to continue to review its effectiveness. The President's proposal to renew General Revenue Sharing soon to be presented to the Congress will address both of these concerns. 0O0 DepartmentoftheTREASURY OFFICE OF REVENUE SHARING TELEPHONE 634-5248 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20226 u Statement of GRAHAM W. WATT Director, Office of Revenue Sharing U.S. Treasury Department before the Subcommittee on General Revenue Sharing of the Senate Finance Committee April 16, 1975 Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee: It is a pleasure for me to report to this Committee, and through you to the American people, on how General Revenue Sharing is meeting the goals and objectives that were set for it in 1972. Although our program has been in existence less than three years, General Revenue Sharing already has provided substantial fiscal assistance to nearly 39,000 states and localities in the United States. Indirectly, but no less importantly, it has provided important services and public facilities which are of benefit to all American citizens. -2With suggestions from members of Congress and assistance from the Administration, the Treasury Department has administered General Revenue Sharing with fidelity to the intent of Congress, with dedication to achieving the purposes of the Act, and with understanding of the diverse needs and capabilities of the nearly 39,000 governments that receive the funds. Table I is a summary of the numbers and types of recipient governments. Federal Fiscal Assistance When the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 (P.L. 92-512) established General Revenue Sharing, the staff of the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation reported that the Act "...intended to help assure the financial soundness of our State and local governments which is essential to our Federal system." (See General Explanation of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act and the Federal-State Tax Collection Act of 1972, February 12, 1973.) The Joint Committee report went on to say that "...the presence of large deficits in the Federal budget should (not) in itself preclude Federal aid to State and local governments in view of the vital need for such aid. To preclude such aid would imply that State and local fiscal assistance has a lower priority than all other present expenditures, a position the Congress does not accept." Accordingly, at a time when Americans were staggering under the mounting burden of regressive state and local property sales, and other taxes, it was thought by Congress and the Administration that the more progressiva c0jorni . P ogressive Federal tax system should be used as a source of relief. TABLE 1 OFFICE OP REVENUE SHAR|N« u NUMBER OF GENERAL REVENUE SHARING RECIPIENTS *T* STATE NAME ALABAMA * ALASKA * AHIIONA » ARKANSAS l CALIFORNIA > TE COLORADO ' CONNECTICUT » DELAWARE * DIST Of COLUMBIA 1 COUNTIES MUNICIPALITIES 67 399 487 92 14 66 18 75 *S8 57 411 54 523 62 247 2 312 94 149 183 58 54 366 MO 1 FLORIDA 1 GEORGIA 1 158 HAWAII 1 3 (69 5 1 44 191 102 1.766 1.435 INDIANA I 91 «56 ltOOO I OVA I 99 942 KANSAS I 105 610 KENTUCKY 1 120 394 6? 295 1 241 5 1 1 455 2 ILLINOIS LOUISIANA 219 534 3 66 IDAHO TOTALS 126 33 » TOWNSHIPS INDIAN TRIPES 1 ALASKAN NATIVE VILLAGES 2.804 1.648 1*150 1 1.6*3 4 1.870 515 474 1 359 3 516 MAINE 1 16 ?2 MARYLAND 1 23 ISO 174 364 MASSACHUSETTS 1 12 39 312 NICHI6AN 1 63 533 1*246 5 1.868 MINNESOTA 1 ST P51 1.786 12 2.737 «2 ?77 MISSISSIPPI 1 MISSOURI 1 114 P71 MONTANA 1 56 125 NEBRASKA 1 93 120 NEVADA 1 16 17 1 467 1 10 13 222 NEW JERSEY 1 21 333 232 NEW MEXICO 1 32 90 NEW YORK 1 5T NORTH CAROLINA 1 100 M 9 930 458 NORTH DAKOTA 1 53 147 1*360 OHIO 1 SB 934 1*320 OKLAHOMA 1 0HE6ON 1 PENNSYLVANIA 1 7T 36 66 "MODE ISLtNO SOUTH CAROLINA 7 189 3 1.084 17 NEW HAMPSHIRE P32 1.013 1*548 6 31 51 246 56 7 22 1*5 6 1.613 1 560 5 1.766 P.343 25 «3l 361 1.326 340 61* 4 273 1 2i6?9 *0 303 1 46 »56 SOUTH OAKOTA" 1 67 101 UNNESSEE 1 9* 121 957 9 1.335 2 1.250 5 2S1 *lb TEXAS 1 25* 993 1 29 216 VERMONT 1 14 55 VIRS1NIA 1 96 228 WASHINGTON 1 39 ?66 ' « S T VIH6INIA 1 55 227 UTAH 307 237 2 327 3 22 331 1.268 10 l.«?«. 2 112 ?83 "ISCONSlN NAIIflyu *QTALS 1 J 1 . 72 3.039 4.74 18**51 |6**6T Stating that "...it is essential that the amount of new aid should be set at a specific figure so that the cost of the program will be definite and ascertainable beforehand," ( o£. cit.) Congress appropriated $30.2 billion to be distri- buted to all units of general government in the United States over five years extending from January 1972 through December 1976. The money was to be allocated according to formulas set forth in the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 using data supplied principally by the U. S. Bureau of the Census. Since the first checks were mailed, in December 1972, the Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing has distributed $18.9 billion. To allocate and distribute the money, we have developed a simple procedure that follows the law's requirements for accurate data, regular quarterly issuance of checks, and reporting requirements for recipient jurisdictions. The normal revenue sharing cycle is related to the Federal fiscal year. In February of each year, the Office of Revenue Sharing obtains, principally from the Bureau of the Census, the updated data that is to be used to calculate each government's share of the revenue sharing appropriation for the forthcoming year. We then review these data elements with each State and local government and, in cooperation with the Census Bureau, make any corrections needed to insure the data's accuracy. In April, we compute the amounts to be paid during the coming year and we notify each government of its expected amount: at the same time, we provide them with their Planned Use Report forms to complete, publish in a local newspaper and return to the Office of Revenue Sharing. At the end of June, each government is sent -4the form on which to report its expenditures and appropriations of revenue sharing funds during the fiscal year ending June 30th. After the Planned and Actual Use reports have been received, the Office of Revenue Sharing makes the first quarterly payment for the new fiscal year, in the first week of October. The formula that allocates General Revenue Sharing among all general governments has been judged satisfactory by most recipients. The amount to be distributed for each entitlement period first is allocated among the states according to the three factor Senate formula (population, tax effort and income) , and then is again allocated among the states according to the five factor House formula (population, urbanized population, per capita income, state income tax collections, and tax effort). of the two amounts is selected for each state. The higher Since the sum is greater than the entitlement period total appropriation, each amount is scaled down proportionately. If the three factor formula is used for either Alaska or Hawaii,- a cost of living adjustment is then applied. After this interstate allocation, one third of each state area amount is paid to the state government, and the remaining two-thirds is apportioned among units of local government within the state. The amount to be allocated to units of local govern- ment is divided by the population of the state to establish the per capita entitlement for all governments within the state. The local government amount is first allocated to county areas. If this calculation allocates to any county area an amount which, on a per capita basis, exceeds 145% of the statewide local per capita entitlement, the county area amount is reduced to the 1451 level and the resulting surplus amount is shared proportionately by all the remaining unconstrained county areas within the state. Similarly, if any county area is allocated less than 20% of the statewide local per capita amount, its allocation is increased to the 201 level and the resulting deficit is taken proportionately from all the remaining unconstrained county areas within the state. Each county area allocation is then divided into four parts: First, an amount for Indian tribal governments or Alaskan native villages is determined according to the ratio of tribal or village population to the total population of the county area. Then from the remainder, a township allocation is determined on the basis of the ratio of all township adjusted taxes to the total of adjusted taxes in the county. Next, a county government share is determined similarly, on the basis of county government adjusted taxes. The remaining amount is for the other units of local government. The allocations for cities, towns, and townships are calculated using similar procedures and applying the 145% maximum and 20% minimum constraints. This intrastate allocation process is illustrated in the following Figure I. -6Although the allocation procedure has been found generally effective, equity would be improved if the maximum constraint were raised. This would permit more money to flow to some larger urban areas, where needs for services far outstrip the ability of local governments to meet the resulting costs. The allocation and payment system outlined in our Act is objective and predictable. It replaces with published formulas and data and multi-year appropriations the personal discretion and fluctuating funding found in some federal assistance programs. General Revenue Sharing relies upon locally-established priorities responsive to individual communities' real needs instead of on Federal prescriptions developed for universal application. It encourages orderly state and local planning, for officials know in advance, how much money they are to receive and when it will be paid to them. Its procedures are so easy to understand and follow that recipient governments do not need to employ additional, expensive staff to cope with Federally-designed paperwork. Universal Eligibility Another objective of General Revenue Sharing is to provide Federal fiscal assistance to all units of general government in the United States. Most other Federal aid programs are targeted at one or another specific level of government or at independent agencies having limited areas of functional responsibility. Each of the hundreds of categorical aid programs addresses a particular need that may exist in only a few jurisdictions. It is difficult for many states and for local governments to identify sources of General Revenue Sharing Intrastate Allocation Process State Area Pot State Government Allocation All Local Governments County Area population of the county area X its general tax effort factor X its relative income factor" 2. allocation to the county area County Area BPot A Pot 1. 1/3 to state governments—2/3 to all other governments. County Area CPot Indian Government Allocation County • H Government Allocation allocation to all local governments in state the sum of the above products for all local governments in the slate 3. allocation to the individual Indian government resident Indian population in the county area allocation to the county area total county area population adjusted taxes of the county government 4. allocation to the county government = adjusted taxes of all units of local government in the county allocation to the county area including the county area government aggregate adjusted taxes of all townships in the county area 5. allocation to all townships in the county area = adjusted taxes of all municipalities, All Townships allocation to the county area I Township Government A Township Government B Township Government C allocation to an individual township all townships, and the county government in the s a m e county area = allocation to all townships in the county area All other units of Local Governments Local Government A T Local Government B I "* ~" I Local Government C 1 Local Government D population of the township X its general tax effort X its relative income factor the sum of the above product* for all townships in the county area allocation to an Individual municipality allocation to all municipalities In the county area population of the municipality X its general tax effort factor X its relative income factor the s u m of tho above products for all municipalities In the county aron grants, to prepare and cope with the applications and to comply with the diversity of Federal regulations and procedures that apply to all of these programs. Too often, only the more affluent, sophisticated, larger states, counties and cities can compete successfully. General Revenue Sharing, on the other hand, was conceived with the idea that since Americans in all communities have needs which require public service and since relatively few of these communities can participate in categorical aid programs for reasons I have just cited, then, some basic assistance should be provided to all. General Revenue Sharing is the only program that provides Federally-collected revenues to all units of general government: large and small, urban and rural, and in all geographical areas. Nearly 39,000 states, counties, cities, towns, townships, Indian tribes and Alaskan native villages are the beneficiaries of shared revenues. Table 2 summarizes payments through April 7, 1975, by type of government. -8The Locus of Decision-Making When the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act was enacted, it was understood that decisions about how shared revenues should be used were to be made by the recipient governments and not by the Treasury Department. Subject only to the specific restric- tions that protect the rights of all persons and with the exception of operating and maintenance expenditures in a few areas of local government activity, the money distributed through General Revenue Sharing is to be spent as the responsible officials of recipient governments see the needs for which to spend it. Priorities for uses of the money are set locally; and the citizens of each community will hold their own officials accountable for the decisions made. It is axiomatic to say that a democratic system cannot survive for long when citizens do not control those who manage the public's business. Since public business is largely influenced by the purposes for which funds are available, voters tend to become disenfranchised when the locus of financial decisionmaking is removed from their control. Over the past several decades, as more and more Federal aid programs were developed to meet more and different needs, power and authority have been accumulated in Washington at an everincreasing rate. General Revenue Sharing was intended to help to reverse this trend. TABLb z h> orrtce or REVENUE SHARINS AMOUNTS PAID RECIPIENTS from Jan 1, 1972 thru April 7, 1975 STATE S $TATC NAME AtARANA $ COUNTIES HON1CTPALITIES . \ 106*595,657 $ 79.811.9*2 $ 62,7*6,495 AHIIONA SO.361.909 $ 320.121,436 502,614 2*.26»,5*8 69*635*925 5.473*525 188*217.85* 639,280 2.012,444,684 125.967 197*870*036 6<»«510.107 70.833.*35 55*?38.9*« 809*818*7*3 531*332*619 COLORADO 6S.92b.982 •6.565.115 85,?51,97? CONNECTICUT 79«662.S3S DELAWARE 21.S13.093 OIST OF COLUMBIA ft*.3*6*400 195,582,486 85.046.335 , $ 1***10.TS7 670.65*.0*2 ARKANSAS CALIFOBMA TOTALS t « $ 133*713.837 8*151,177 ALASKA TOWNSHIPS S % INDUN TRIBES I -» ALASKAN NATIVE VILLAGES 20*7*6.117 1*.32B.S55 74,404,145 239.113,015 56.567,765 8**3*6*800 riORiOA 182*9*0,956 162.485,967 204.P66.115 6E0RGIA 67.526 5*9,562.56* 131.235.067 151.975.678 110.V6.599 HAWAII 27*769.366 13.785.221 41.753.506 IDAHO1 25**09.18* 29.286.689 21.750.024 ILLINOIS 321<«90,*73 1*5.128**16 37S.ft71.021 84,200,590 925,890,500 INOUNA ]33«*29.?7* 91.027.087 1*«,?6B,*0? 31,538,816 400*263*579 IOWA 88,919,*82 103*446.06* 74*369,178 KANSAS 60,5*3,7*3 61.612.16? 52*727.466 KINTUCKY liy.366.ft7R 87.677.671 lftl.33?«B?* LOUISIANA 1*6.682.050 117.231.8*3 169.r81.739 38*310.773 5.08?.94? 31.f31.??8 MARYLAND 12*,631«23» 1*5*159.5*6 10*.15*.181 22.853.11? 223.*28.876 1S1.235.999 MAINf 393.537*3** 83.308,093 281.613 39.024 6,677,819 24.620 76,227,510 286*773*7*8 181*585,810 308,376,573 19,977 1*7,619 39,760.365 •33,015,609 ll*.93?,9?7 373,9**.957 MASSACHUSETTS 198»*83.33fi .MICHIGAN 266.437.86S 15S.*59.9?7 32O.T65.203 •8.A91.318 87,832 461,162*1*5 NINNFSOTA 1?*«*50.206 132,688.2*9 100.636.?U 15,347,576 722,*32 37«*l*4,*6r4 MISSISSIPPI 107*730.187 129,71?.527 72.631.500 ^139,963 310,21*, I'T7 MISSOURI 117*788*18? 77.955.69* lS2.ft2*.3*T MONTANA 2**795.577 32.917,719 1*.067.791 NEBRASKA 45*2*2.176 4**9*?«3*2 42.449.611 NEVADA 13.808.081 17,260,681 10*133*099 NEK HAMPSHIRE 20.06b.455 5*2*1,933 19.ft23.S27 15.994*890 60.325,805 197,30*.585 139,5*6,268 175.520.213 79,616,8*8 591,987,914 NEK JERSEY NEW MEXICO 135,711.559 21*,000 41.415,861 UB,9?*,?56 2*102*932,94? 351.2*2 *R*,201.4S0 16.P06.213 6,565,389 1.030.470 159.056.8*9 293.MS.356 •8,927,5*9 70.365.9*9 51.98*.173 87,46*,599 1,258,880 77,1*7,921 203.64? 1A7.076.863 369**8*,186 10*.552,5*7 400 990,797,5*4 40*?9**723 16,3*6,3*1 952.037,060 NORTH CAROLINA 161.1*5,301 173.513.583 1*9*191*32* 25.086**36 25.78*.1?7 250.822.997 OREGON 74.380.4fll 1*8,852 376.761 40**12.093 300.*26.090 OKLAHOMA 2.888.578 1,799,39* 5.262,231 32*313*628 7A1.017.9R? OHIO 353,1*3.67* 5.375.451 1*8.175,0*9 •0.936.30* NEW YORK NORTH DAKOTA 596,001,325 75,27?,635 75?.*?*,751 2ll.073.SAl 62.368.*?? *7.356.878 PENNSYLVANIA 330*060*56? 186.699.8*9 «HOO» ISLAND 28.3?*,916 SOUTH CAROLINA 88.30h.116 90.005.513 80.«05.0?2 SOUTH DAKOTA 27*9*0.838 32.593.7*7 17,??0.150 TENNESSEE U8.63..7S3 103*267,9?3 136,4*5,761 TtXAS 29R.2?9,9?6 220.569,873 374*361,656 6 1.583 "93.223.03A 37. Hi".350 36.921.263 36*672.985 572,73* 111*279,33? 17.661.991 43*.410 1?.1»6.5?7 UTAH VERMONT 12*.558,263 92.153.679 15T.*19.TfcO «ASMJN6T0N 90.HT3.1H2 81.461.633 99.^35.101 •EST VIRGINIA 8|.12<?«395 •8.335.893 56*006.36? 158,038.83* 156,134,78* 13*<7<.J.49* VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOH.NG *«*»10NAL TOTAIS <5 6 •*10.9i7.3SA 6 *.806.616,IS* 258,316,651 1.920.825 *.024,127 C: 6, 1 9,167,503 83,799,687 358.3*A,43T *;3.0*7.9f.S 22,765,017 5.6*9 3T4,\3».3S1 3,401 773.299 272,6*0,616 25.19^.870 483.197 474,606. I'M lfl5.466.6bft 6.M1.61* 16.985.238 1 1*669,6*5 A*.965,980 6 Vi>.487,6«5 £ ?«.A.7<;7 J4.9?S,?4S ?2,*3},908 < 1A,»1T1 ,92?»6ft« Our program is succeeding in its objective of attracting public interest and involvement back into the mainstream of local government decision-making. In the past two years, members of my staff have participated in conferences and workshops in nearly every state -- meetings that have been organized by public and private interest groups anxious to inform their communities about this new program and its new approach to local decisionmaking. In many communities, specially appointed advisory boards and committees are soliciting citizens' views on priorities for uses of revenue sharing dollars. Where citizen participation is encouraged vis-a-vis General Revenue Sharing, it also affects other aspects of state and local business. Citizen Participation Revenue Sharing law requires that the two reports which recipients must file with the Office of Revenue Sharing each year be published locally in newspapers of general circulation. In adopting this provision, Congress provided citizens with basic information about their state and local governments' plans for and actual uses of shared revenues. Since plans may be changed before the funds are committed, citizens have the opportunity to express their opinions before the money is spent. The Act also requires that shared revenues be spent in accordance with the laws and procedures that apply to the expenditure of each state and local government's own funds. -10Accordingly, if state or local law requires public hearings or other forms of public involvement in appropriating public funds, then the same procedures are required when General Revenue Sharing dollars are used. This provision of the law assures at least the same degree of public participation in priority-setting for uses of shared revenues as is the case for recipients' ownsource revenues. The publication requirement and the requirement that funds be spent by recipients in accordance with existing laws and procedures, when taken together, have helped to bring the revenue sharing program to the attention of the general public. More needs to be done. Whenever possible, we in the Office of Revenue Sharing have encouraged officials to involve their constituents in their decision-making regarding shared revenues, using procedures which are appropriate to the individual jurisdictions. We seek to encourage news reporters and columnists to take more interest in state and local budgeting and to report the impact our program has had on uses of public funds at all levels of government. We concur in the broadly-felt need to stimulate more effective public interest in government. Uses of Funds The Act permits State governments to spend their shared revenues for any purpose that is a legally permissable use of the State's own funds. Local governments may spend their money for any capital purpose (capital, as defined by local law) or for current expenses in any one or more of eight priority categories: public safety, environmental protection, public transportation, health, recreation, libraries, social services for the poor or aged, and financial administration. Recipient governments are required to report to the Office of Revenue Sharing for each entitlement period on their plans for use of the money they expect to receive, and at the end of each fiscal year on their actual expenditures of shared revenues. The reports made to the Office of Revenue Sharing are intentionally concise and simple, in keeping with the desire of Congress that our program not be a generator of additional red tape, confusion and expensive paperwork for any level of government. We require that use information be reported in the same functional categories that Congress established as priorities when the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act was passed in 1972. Any analysis of the ultimate impact of general revenue sharing on services at the State and local levels of American government is beyond the scope of our mission. It should be noted, however, that intensive efforts to measure the impacts of revenue sharing dollars on recipients' budgets are underway by a number of research organizations. The National Science Foundation, the Brookings Institution and others have undertaken research that will provide useful information about the ultimate impact of General Revenue Sharing funds on the provision of services by States and local governments. -12Our reports to the Congress indicate those categories of activity in which shared revenues have been spent initially. We cannot measure whether or to what extent funds within State and local budgets have been freed up to be used elsewhere. The substitution effect is difficult and costly to assess and is the objective of research by others. An analysis of the reported uses of General Revenue Sharing during 1973-74 indicates that more money was spent to support public safety services than for any other function. These expendi- tures, mainly by local governments, account for 23$ of every General Revenue Sharing dollar spent. The second highest use of General Revenue Sharing funds by all State and local governments was to fund educational services and facilities. This use represented 21$ of every General Revenue Sharing dollar, and dominated State government spending. The third highest expenditure of General Revenue Sharing funds was to provide a variety of public transportation services at both the State and local levels. These services accounted for 15$ of the average General Revenue Sharing dollar spent in F.Y. 1974. These three uses of General Revenue Sharing funds -- public safety, education, and public transportation -- accounted for almost 60% of all revenue sharing expenditures during 1973-74. It is relevant to note that a public opinion survey sponsored by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations last year found that respondent citizens' top priorities for uses of revenue sharing dollars were education, public safety and public transportation. -13- L Other uses of shared revenues by States and local governments, in order of magnitude of total amounts spent, have been: multipurpose and general government, health services, environmental protection, recreation and cultural programs, social services for the poor or aged, financial administration, libraries, housing and community development, and corrections, economic development and social development. By combining State and local government reported expenditures during the period July 1, 1973June 30, 1974, we can obtain an overview of how the average General Revenue Sharing dollar was spent by these governments. Table 3 summarizes these reported uses of funds. TABLE 3 REPORTED USE OF GENERAL REVENUE SHARING FUNDS BY STATES AND ALL LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1973-1974 Public Safety 23$ Education 21$ 15$ Public Transport. Multi-purpose § Gen. 10$ Government 7$ Health Environmental 7$ Protection 5$ Recreation Social Services for 4$ Poor or Aged Other Uses Financial Admin. Libraries Housing/Community Development Corrections Less than Economic Devel. Less than Social Devel. Less than 4$ 2$ 1$ 1$ 1$ 1$ 1$ -14Although these statutory categories are useful to summarize expenditures of General Revenue Sharing funds, they are inadequate to describe the broad range of services encompassed. For example, expenditures for environmental protection, such as improved sanitary waste disposal facilities may represent a major community health benefit. Some governments may report an expendi- ture for mini-bus services as a social service for the aged or poor, others may report it as a public transportation expenditure, and in a third jurisdiction it may be categorized as a health program. In reality, most local and State government services ultimately contribute to a better quality of life for all citizens and thus could be considered as social services. Surveys and inquiries made strongly suggest that the original limitation to five years as authorization for this program constitutes a substantial inhibition on local decisions about the use of the funds. Many officials have limited their expenditures to capital purposes so as to avoid a future dependence upon funds which conceivably could be terminated after 1976. This factor has undoubtedly skewed expenditure patterns in a way not anticipated by the Congress when it authorized the program for a limited life ending in 1976. Compliance Revenue sharing law prohibits the use of shared revenues in any activity in which there is discrimination based on race, color, national origin or sex; if shared revenues are used to pay 25 percent or more of the cost of a capital construction project, -15- I > I So Davis-Bacon Act wage requirements must be met; General Revenue Sharing funds may not be used as local match to secure Federal grant money; for local governments, funds may be used for ordinary and necessary capital expenditures authorized by law or for operating and maintenance expenditures for public safety, enviromental protection, public transportation, health, recreation, libraries, social services for the poor or aged, and financial administration. To assure that the funds are used in compliance with these civil rights and other requirements of revenue sharing law, an innovative audit and compliance program has been developed which utilizes existing resources wherever possible. The Office of Revenue Sharing Compliance program includes these basic elements: 1. Cooperative State Audit Program: State audit agencies willing to do so will perform regular audits of the local governments within their States and of State agencies for revenue sharing purposes, using audit standards published by the Office of Revenue Sharing. All but eight states are now participants in this effort. We expect to achieve total coverage this year. 2. Cooperative Private Audit Program: Many accounting firms have agreed to include revenue sharing audits as part of their regular contractual audits of States and local governments. The quality of these and State-directed audits will be assured by periodic Office of Revenue Sharing review. -163. Staff Audits: performed by Office of Revenue Sharing staff and by other federal auditors to adequately cover those governments not subject to audit under a cooperative program and to assure quality control. 4. Cooperation with other Federal agencies: includes exchange of information and jointly-conducted investigations and problem-resolution. In October 1974, the Office of Revenue Sharing and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission concluded an agreement providing for cooperation to assure nondiscrimination in public employment where revenue sharing funds are involved. Our agreement with the EEOC affords access to. confidential employment data reported to EEOC by public employers. This information is used in our investigations and analyses of reports of discrimination in the use of shared revenues. 5 * Complaint Investigation: In addition to our own efforts to seek out evidence of noncompliance, the Office of Revenue Sharing staff continues to investigate reports and complaints of noncompliance with the civil rights and other provisions of our law, whenever these are brought to us by others. E/ Our procedure by which citizens may file complaints is intentionally simple, in order to encourage any person who believes that the law is not being observed to initiate a proper investigation. Any person may file a complaint by writing us a letter or card indicating the location and nature of the problem. The complainant is not required to identify himself, although most are willing to do so. Names of complain- ants are kept confidential to protect against possible local retribution. Since the revenue sharing program began, we have been generally successful in our effort to investigate all complaints promptly as they are reported. Where evidence of noncompliance with the provisions of the Act is found by the Office of Revenue Sharing, or bought to our attention through audit or by report, the Office of Revenue Sharing determines the facts, advises the affected government of its findings, and seeks prompt, voluntary action to correct. In cases involving local governments, the Governor of the state is advised and his assistance to achieve corrective action is sought. When these efforts are unavailing, the Office of Revenue Sharing proceeds with the administrative remedies provided in the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act and regulations or we refer the case to the U.S. Department of Justice for appropriate action, depending on the circumstances of each case. -18Where we find evidence of fraud, the attorney general of the appropriate state is requested to take necessary action. Should he fail or decline to act, the matter is then referred to the U.S. Justice Department for action. As General Revenue Sharing has become better known and citizen interest increases, we have received more reports of noncompliance with revenue sharing law. Although we have a good record of prompt response to these, our very small audit and compliance staff must be expanded. We have asked the Congress to allow us for Fiscal Year 1976 the 21 added audit and compliance positions that were denied in Fiscal Year 1975. Thus far, the Office of Revenue Sharing has handled 412 cases of which 172 have been resolved. A summary of our current compliance workload: TABLE 4 COMPLIANCE CASES HANDLED BY THE OFFICE OF REVENUE SHARING* TO APRIL 4, 1975 Resolved Active Special Status Total Civil Rights/Discrimin. 38 88 10 136 Financial/Accounting 47 22 4 73 Legal/Compliance with Applicable Provisions 36 59 0 95 Miscellaneous (publication, n, matching funds, etc.) 51 54 3 108 223 17 412 Nature of Case Totals 172 These figures do not include Davis-Bacon cases. Department of Labor regional offices make compliance status determinations with respect to minimum wages required to be paid. /3a Other allegations of misuse of revenue sharing funds brought to our attention have been investigated and found to lack jurisdiction or merit. Enforcement of Civil Rights and Other Provisions of Revenue Sharing Law When a compliance problem cannot be resolved through negotiation or mediation, the law provides that the Secretary of the Treasury may "...refer the matter to the Attorney General with a recommendation that an appropriate civil action be instituted; ...exercise the powers and functions provided by Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (42 U.S.C. 2000d); or ...take such other action as may be provided by law." Thus far, the Treasury Department has initiated formal legal action against two recipient governments: the City of Chicago and the State of Michigan. Both causes involve discri- mination in the use of General Revenue Sharing funds. As to the City of Chicago case, funds have been deferred pursuant to Court order. The City of Chicago did not receive revenue sharing checks for the second and third quarters of the 5th Entitlement Period (January and April 19 75 payments). totals $38.4 million. The amount withheld to date The United States District Court in the District of Columbia has ordered that the funds be withheld, based on a finding that hiring and promotion practices in the Chicago Police Department are discriminatory. General Revenue Sharing funds have been used to pay operating expenses of Chicago's Police Department. The case of U.S. et al vs. City of Chicago -20et al went to trial in the U. S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois on March 10, 1975 and is continuing at this time. On February 19, 1975, the Office of Revenue Sharing requested the Department of Justice to initiate a civil action against the State of Michigan. Michigan has applied General Revenue Sharing funds to help fund the State Public School Employees' Retirement System. The Retirement System provides benefits to retired public school employees from Michigan school districts, including the segregated Ferndale, Michigan district. segregated in 1972. (Ferndale was ruled Appeal of the ruling was denied by the U. S. Supreme Court.) The Justice Department is engaged in direct proceedings with the Ferndale School District to bring it into compliance with other Federal anti-discrimination laws. Accordingly, the Office of Revenue Sharing's action permits the Federal government to take a unified approach to resolving the problem. Administration The Treasury Department's administration of General Revenue Sharing is performed by a small and dedicated staff, all located in Washington, D. C. For Fiscal Year 1975, the Office of Revenue Sharing has been authorized a total of 85 positions. Our request for next year, including additions to our audit and compliance staff, would provide a total personnel complement of 116 positions. GENERAL REVENUE SHARING ORGANIZATION with presently-authorized positions in parentheses Secretary of the Treasury Deputy Secretary 1 Under Secretary General Counsel Director, Office of Revenue Sharing (2) Admin. - (5) Prog. Planning & Coordination Chief Counsel (2) Public Affairs (2) Deputy Director (3) Data& Demography Division (9) Compliance Division (30) Systems & Operations Division Intergovernmental Re ations Division (20) (12) -21- / The Fiscal Year 1975 appropriation to operate the Office is $2,133,000. Administration of the program including data services by the Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service currently costs approximately 12/100ths of one percent of the funds being distributed. Summary The legislative history of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 shows clearly that the Congress intended to establish a new form of Federal financial assistance to State and local governments. The Congress carefully distinguished General Revenue Sharing from all "grant" programs. With General Revenue Sharing, States and local governments receive funds to which they are by law entitled - - a n important distinction from grants for which governments may apply. Payment amounts are determined not by administrative discretion but by objective formulas which divide a national appropriation among the States and local governments according to published data which measures their relative population, tax effort, per capita income and similar factors. General Revenue Sharing is bringing about better and more responsive government at all levels. As a program, it responds to the unique needs of states and local governments. As a new system, it offers opportunity to serve the American public with dependability, yet flexibility, in such a way as to recognize and encourage the combination of national unity and local diversity that has made ours the strongest of nations for nearly two hundred years. The Bond Between Us My husband once said that 10 minutes was enough for anyone to tell what he or she knows; after that, you tell what you don't know. , I agree, so I'll take only 10 minutes of your time to tell you what I know about United States Savings Bonds and why I'm sold on them — and why I hope you are too. I am so sold on the program that I accepted my second appointment, as National Director of the Savings Bonds Division, even though it came without a penny of salary. And I remain so convinced of its value that I have traveled over 78,000 miles, to 26 states during the past nine months, to talk about bonds. These miles of travel stretch from the beaches of Hawaii to the blizzards of Minnesota to progressive Peoria. In this time, I have met hundreds of wonderful volunteers. And I have had the chance to see again that the real wealth of America is not the money made by our Department of the Treasury, but our living American land, our people, and the Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, TSIA, Peoria, Illinois on April 17, 1975. j *> < extra-ordinary ideas and attitudes that shaped our laws and institutions and propelled us so far in our 200 years as a Nation.. In these travels outside of Washington, D.C, I realize again that America is much more than rising unemployment and sinking Dow-Jones averages. It is 212 million people working, making homes, going to school., building and holding together a great Nation. And we are a great Nation. We set world standards in education, in per-capita income, and in pioneering new fields. We are a country where the medium income of our families has doubled in the past 25 years, even taking inflation into account; a country where 60 percent of American families own their own homes; where even our taxes of all kinds -- compared to our income — are still the second lowest among the 13 top industrial nations of the world. United States Savings Bonds are a part of this going and growing America. I suspect they do more to promote the habit of regular saving among Americans than all of the family lectures on thrift ever given. The Oklahoma farmer and the Ohio housewife may have little concept of a Treasury note or a mutual fund investment, but they do know about Savings Bonds. And they do save. In 1974, we had the largest bond sales since World War Two — almost $6.9 billion. \y Savings Bonds are a trusted part of everyone's life — of America's life — and they have been ever since most of us were earning our first quarter. Bonds belong in America. But now and then we need to look again at this old friend of ours and rediscover the "what" and "why" of them. that right now. Let's do Let's look at 3 main reasons why we can urge people to say "yes" to Savings Bonds. First they are a sound personal investment. They are secure in a troubled world. The payroll savings plan is a painless way to receive six percent interest on your savings. And this can equal a higher rate of interest when you consider the tax advantages — which most of us are doing with special vigor this tax-paying season. By the way, I've discovered that some people still don't know about our 6 percent interest, and other people don't understand that you pay no state or local tax on bonds and that you can defer the federal tax until you cash them in. Bonds are a great way to save, but they can also be an investment. Banker Tom Prideaux of the National Bank of Oregon notes that $75 invested in Savings Bonds monthly since December of 1968 is worth more than $75 invested monthly in stocks making up Moody's Industrial Index. That old reliable 6 percent comes through. f >f\ Savings Bonds also help our government in its debt management, by providing an efficient way to meet a sizable percentage of borrowing needs at a relatively low cost to the nation. When the Treasury is able to finance through nonmarketable securities, the borrowing is kept out of the marketplace and thus does^not directly compete with corporate and state and local borrowers. It's comforting to know that about 23 percent of the public debt in private hands is in the form of United States Savings Bonds. Further, Savings Bonds have a long maturation period. Series E and H bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for six years, while other marketable instruments turn over, on the average, in three years or less. The cost of borrowing money is sizable, so you can see why holding bonds a long time is important to the government, and hence to us as taxpayers. Finally, these bonds are a tangible expression of faith in America and her future. of us to say, "I love America." It is hard for most It is easier to buy bonds or to work for the program and to show our love that way. Perhaps that's why, in these difficult times, the sale of bonds is rising. I grew up in the little town of Mountainair, New Mexico, where my parents provided me with a diet of pinto beans and patriotism. The pinto beans were sometimes scarce, but never the patriotism. During World War Two, the American Legion asked several of us young girls to sell bonds in front of the Mountainair Post Office on Saturday mornings. We young girls tried very hard to see which of us could sell the most bonds, and my proud father would often round up his cronies and direct them to my table. I usually sold the most bonds and I thought at the time it was my scintilating smile. Years later I realized that my father was head of the local draft board and this just might have made a difference.1 After the war ended and I graduated from college and became a young wife and mother, I cashed in the bonds my father had bought me so that my husband Ed and I could buy our first home. This was in the booming postwar economy years of the 1950's and 60's. Now today, in my middlessence, I'm selling bonds again. And, from my Washington office as the United States Treasurer and National Director, I see more fully their debt reduction aspect. Most of us have seen bonds from these 3 viewpoints of the patriotic, the personal benefits, and the boost that bonds give to the country's debt management. From every standpoint, Savings Bonds make sense — and dollars. They are good for the individual, good for the country, and good for the future. \l<f But.selling bonds by the billions doesn't just happen. It takes a small handful of Treasury people and a very large handful of volunteers. Easily ninety- five percent of the people working for our program are volunteers like yourselves. I know that we ask a lot of our Bond volunteers. We ask busy, important people to take time to become personally concerned and involved. The only reason we can do this is because we feel our product is so great. Our national goal in 197 5 is to sell at least 6.8 billion in bonds and to enroll 2.4 million new or increased savers. We are starting out very well, with sales of almost $1.9 billion in bonds for the first 3 months. That's the greatest bond sales for this period in 30 years. As Savings Bonds volunteers, you have an excellent message. You have a ready market. You have some very good Savings Bonds people here in Illinois and you will have the help of a nationwide series of public service ads featuring our Bicentennial slogan "Take Stock in America -200 years at the same location." But the Savings Bonds job can never be done in Washington or New York alone. It is a grass roots program, and the results depend on your personal involvement and the involvement of others the country. like you across Let's roll up our sleeves and roll up a record -- we can do it this year. 197 5 is the beginning of our third century as a Nation. It's a super time to join the program. Let's make the bicentennial year a "buy bonds" year as well, by reminding people what we are selling and why we are selling. Let's look up from our desks and out the win- dows at America — at her green hills and brown prairies and industrial might — people — her ideas and institutions and and remember why it is that the word "America" is such a special word everywhere on earth. And then — let's get up from those desks and go out and do the job. Thank you. UNITED STATES SAVINGS BONDS ISSUED AND REDEEMED THROUGH /7/ (Dollar amounts in millions - rounded and will not necessarily odd to totals) DESCRIPTION A M O U N T ISSUED-^/ AMOUNT REDEEMED—/ AMOUNT OUTSTANDING—/ % OUTSTANDING OF A M O U N T ISSUED MATURED Series A-1935 thru D-1941 Series F and G-1941 thru 1952 Series J and K-1952 thru 1957 5003 29521 3754 4999 29502 3749 4 19 5 1941 8568 13777 16095 12680 5796 5537 5747 5712 5019 4341 4556 5226 5344 5574 5384 5083 4979 4679 4711 4816 4697 5296 5161 5050 5479 5434 5123 4820 5066 5844 6453 6385 6402 366 848 207989 1764 7770 12511 14540 11320 5030 4680 4784 4679 4060 3511 3659 4124 4158 4294 4123 3850 3686 3429 3368 3333 3176 3409 3337 3243 3395 3325 3087 2818 2731 2775 2690 2404 1514 845" 151422 176 798 1266 1556 1360 766 857 964 1033 960 830 898 1102 1186 1280 1261 1233 1293 1249 1343 1483 1521 1887 1825 1805 2084 2109 2036 2003 2335 3069 3762 3981 4888 366 3 56568 9.07 9.31 9.19 9.67 10.73 13.22 15.48 16.77 18.08 19.13 19.12 19.71 21-09 22.19 22.96 23.42 24.26 25.97 26.69 28.51 30.79 32.38 35.63 35.36 35.74 38.04 38.81 39.74 41.56 46-09 52.52 58.30 62.35 76.35 100.00 .35 27.20 .08 . .06 .13 UNMATURED Series E - ^ : 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 I960 197fl 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Unclassified Total Series E 5484 10199 4171 3704 1313 6494 23.94 63.67 15683 7875 7807 49.77 Total K P H P S F a p H H 223672 159296 64375 28.78 T<">tal matured . All Serjps Total unmatured Hranri f ntal 38278 223672 261950 38250 159296 197546 28 64375 64403 .07 28.78 24.59 SeriPs H (1952 thru M a y 1959) -^ M (Jnn** 1959 thru 1974) Total Series H include accrued discount. 3urr«nf redemption value. *' option ol owner bonds may be held and will earn interest tor additional periods alter original maturity dates. Form P D 3812 (Rev. Nov. 1974)- Depl. of the Treasury - Bureau of the Public Dehi Hv FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Stanley Sommerfield 964-2394 April 18, 1975 CAMBODIA ACCOUNTS BLOCKED UNDER TREASURY'S FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL REGULATIONS The Treasury Department announced today that under Foreign Assets Control Regulations it has blocked all financial and commercial transactions with Cambodia by persons subject to the jurisdiction of the United States unless first licensed by the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control. The Treasury action was approved by the National Security Council. The Treasury said it had instructed domestic banks to block all Cambodian accounts immediately. The Treasury said the value of Cambodia short term assets in the United States as of December, 1974, was $4 million. The value of other assets owned by Cambodians -- real estate, securities, etc — is not known. The action placed Cambodian assets under licensing control along with assets of other blocked countries which include North Vietnam, North Korea, and Cuba. Foreign subsidiaries of American firms may not trade with Cambodia without a license, the Treasury said. Humanitarian relief sent by Americans to Cambodia requires a license, regardless of what country it is being shipped from, the Treasury said. Policy with respect to this kind of relief has not been determined, the Treasury announced. WS-281 oOo DepartmentoftheJREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 18, 1975 ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE INDO-US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE BOMBAY, INDIA, FRIDAY, APRIL 18, 1975 A visit to India is a rare experience for most Americans, and the opportunity to address a distinguished audience of Indian and American businessmen is rarer still. So as I come before you tonight, I am deeply grateful to you and to the Indian Government for the kind invitations that bring me to this podium. *-1 1 C 1 3 CL JL.ZHJ President of the United States. Before I left Washington, President Ford asked that in my travels here I extend his warmest personal regards and convey to you his hope that during his Presidency we may strengthen the bonds of friendship between our two nations. This is my first visit to India. During the six days that I .shall be here — traveling to New Delhi, Agra, Bombay and Madras--I obviously can see only a small part of your vast and diverse country. Yet through first hand observation, I hope it will be possible for me to gain a better knowledge of the problems you face as a developing country. My chief purpose in coming here is to find answers to a single question: How can our countries cooperate more closely so that each of us can benefit? The United States is very interested in finding ways that we can help you to help yourselves, but we are not unaware that in the process we will also be helping ourselves. The benefits of cooperation can and WS-280 - 2do run both ways. This approach, I believe, is entirely fitting for two great nations who respect each other and also respect themselves. It is our belief that in seeking mutual gains, both the United States and India have far more to gain from a pattern of closer friendship and cooperation than from a relationship characterized by suspicion and distrust. Much has been said in the past about the differences between us--the issues that drive us apart and tend to plant the seeds of discord. Those items are so familiar that they bear no recitation tonight. What I would like to address instead are some areas in which we share a common interest--the issues which should pull us together and give us a common bond. Too often that which united us has been obscured by that which divides. By recognizing more clearly the issues in which we share a common interest, we can'find the best means of building a sound constructive relationship. THE CHALLENGE OF EXPANDING TRADE A central issue in which India and the United States share a common interest is in expanding trade between our two nations. I know this matter is of particular importance here in Bombay, the traditional gateway to India for foreign .commerce. From 1971 to 1973, average annual Indian exports to the United States were about $400 million, or about l"5 percent, of total Indian exports. During the same period, annual India ^imports from the United States averaged about $500 million, about 18 percent of India's total imports. Thus, to highlight the obvious, the United States is the most important trading partner for India, even.when excluding the substantial shipments of grain that occurred in the mid 1960s and again in the 1974-75 period. For the United States, however, India was not a major trading partner, even when compared with other developing countries. To provide some perspective, Taiwan, with a population of 15 million people and a GNP of just over $9 billion (one eighth the size of India's GNP), in 1973 exported more than $4 billion of which $1.7 billion went to the United States. In the same year Taiwan imported goods totalling $4 billion, including $950 million from the United States. Singapore, with $1.5 billion, exported $613 million of its products to the U.S. and imported $765 million worth from the U.S. in 1973 thus, total U.S. trade with Taiwan was three times the amount of our trade with India, while American trade with Singapore was substantially more than our trade with India. Surely there is vast room for an increase in the trade between our two countries which would be mutually beneficial. if For India, even a relatively small increase in its share of the U.S. market would be substantial in absolute terms. If for example, India's share of U.S. imports increased by as little as four-tenths of one percent, this would mean an increase in Indian exports of approximately $400 million. This sum would be more than the total debt relief India received last year from the Aid-To-India consortium, and it could be repeated and increased every year. Given the need, the desirability and the potential for increasing trade between our countries, we must ask ourselves how that goal may be achieved. One part of the answer, I would suggest, is the same answer that I carried to the Soviet Union, and with all other nations, we should work to lower the many barriers which now clog our trading lanes. Let me assure you that the United States will not seek to restrict your access to our markets. With perhaps the notable exception of our sugar policy, which for many years granted preferences to our own hemisphere, we have tried to avoid discrimination against or among developing countries. Indeed in the Trade Act of 1974, which President Ford signed early this year, the United States has moved toward preferential treatment for developing countries by enabling the President to provide those nations with duty free treatment for their eligible exports. The President has already identified India as a prospective beneficiary. While this trade measure will provide preferential access to U.S. markets for developing countries, I should point out that it will not provide an advantage for any single less developed country in competition with other less developed countries. In short our trade preferences will provide an opportunity for all developing countries to expand their exports to the United States but they will not automatically guarantee a share to any particular exporting country. To look at the other side of our trade for a moment, it is no secret to anyone in this audience that American businessmen trying to sell their products here in India often report a sense of frustration and discouragement. In seeking ways to bolster the ties between United States and India, the sources of those frustrations must inevitably be one of the subjects that we address. One of the forums in which we are hopeful that progress can be made on economic cooperation is the Indo-U.S. Joint Commission. That Commission was established last October during Secretary Kissinger's trip to New Delhi. As you know, one of the three subcommissions set up under that umbrella is the Economic and Commercial Subcommission which held its first meeting in Washington in January. - 4 With the help of the Federation of the Indian Chamber of Commerce and industry as well as the United States Chamber of Commerce a Joint Business Council is now being formed in order to improve ties between the two business communities. The first meeting of the council is tentatively scheduled for late this year. Other activities taking place under the leadership of the Indo-U.S. Joint Commission are the formation of a joint working group on Agricultural inputs, negotiations on a tax treaty, and the promotion of trade missions. We are looking forward to the visit to Washington of an Indian export promotion council trade mission to explore possibilities of selling Indian engineering products in American markets. All of these are positive steps forward. At the January meeting of the Economic and Commercial Subcommission, we were advised that the Government of India considers foreign investment an important mechanism for acquiring needed industrial technology and for expanding high technology exports. We agree. Yet both of us must face the fact that over the years American firms have not eagerly sought to invest their funds in India. U.S. investments in developing countries around the world now total some $25 billion. Of that amount, U.S. investments in India have a book value of only $325 million--less than 2 percent of the total. With the context of the Joint Commission we are eager£to work with you in finding ways to improve the investment picture. The United States Government can offer "good offices" for specific proposals and can help to establish a liaison with private investors in the United States. I must emphasize, however, that my Government does not play a major direct role in the transfer of industrial technology to India. Technology is the property of private U.S. firms and as such it must be enticed to come to India through your efforts to create a favorable climate for investment. Our Government is prepared to discuss with you our own ideas about the way that climate could be improved, but the basic decisions on what should be done remain, of course, in your hands. To summarize, the United States Government would like to work with you in a joint, cooperative effort to remove as many trade impediments as possible. We believe that the expansion of trade which should result would provide economic benefits to each of us and at the same time would also help to deepen and strengthen our friendship. MEETING THE ENERGY CHALLENGE A second interest which we share together is to overcome the challenge posed by quadrupling of international oil prices in the past year and a half. Last year the United States paid out $25 billion for foreign oil--more than eight times what we were paying in 1970. Here in India, the costs of foreign oil last year were double their level of a year earlier, and you were forced to place more severe importation limits on a product that is vitally needed for your industries. While our oil bills are different in size, it is clear that neither of us can long tolerate a heavy dependence upon foreign oil that is so highly priced. In both of our countries the high cost of oil has also had a major impact upon the cost of fertilizer. In the United States the higher cost of fertilizer has driven up farm costs and, in turn, consumers have been forced to pay a higher price for food. In India, we recognize that the availability and cost of fertilizer is virtually a matter of life and death because the need for increased food production is so vital to feeding the Indian population. We have actively encouraged the World Bank to assist the expansion of the Indian fertilizer industry, and several major loans for that purpose have been made* during the past year. The adjustment to higher energy prices has been eased by borrowing. But we recognize that such borrowing is not a complete answer. It will help you cope with problems today, but the problems themselves will still be there tomorrow. In the United States, we believe that the ultimate solution lies in a two-pronged effort by consumer nations: an ambitious program of energy conservation and a major effort to become more self sufficient in energy. I might point out that the countries that have been most successful at conserving energy are those that have allowed the free market to do its job. Germany, for example, by relying upon the price mechanism, cut its oil consumption by about 10 percent last year. Meanwhile, the United States, depending largely on non-price approaches, reduced consumption by only 3 percent. The Administration now has legislation pending in our Congress which would use the price mechanism as a means of encouraging further conservation. Of course, no one relishes the prospect of higher prices for oil or anything else, but attempts to avoid or suppress the economic realities reflected in the market place merely postpone the inevitable. Even worse, such attempts usually make the adjustment process more difficult. The present oil cartel, like all other cartels in the past, is subject to the laws of supply and demand. When demand falls, the cartel has no choice but to lower its price or to reduce its production. As worldwide consumption has been reduced in recent months through conservation and through the effects of worldwide recession, we are already seeing this process at Within years, work. 15-16 12 million million OPEC a significant matter barrels has barrels now of months, discoveries ashut day a day. in --OPEC's a inFurthermore, third of order oil shut-in of to have its hold capacity been during capacity themade line the may --in of last over rise some prices. three to - 6 25-30 areas of the world outside of OPEC -- uncovering reserves esti mated at roughly 35 billion barrels. These new fields could produce some 8 million additional barrels a day by the late 1970s, and this does not include new production coming from the U.S., the Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China. India is one of the countries which has greatly intensified its oil exploration and has already found considerable additional resources, although there is still much potential for further exploration. Your recent progress in locating oil on the Bombay High is a good example of successful Indian cooperation with the American private sector in developing your energy potential. o As the pressures of conservation and development have built up, some of the members of the cartel have begun shaving prices, and we have seen the first cracks in what many erroneously claimed was an impregnable price wall. I have said many times before, and I believe even more strongly now that it is no longer a question of whether oil prices will come down but when they will come down. Nonetheless, neither we nor other consumer nations such T as India can afford to sit idly by, waiting for a change in price. We must all take affirmative action both to conserve and 5C to develop alternative energy sources. ii One alternative source that both of us have in abundance is coal. I am told that Indian coal reserves are close to 90 billion tons, which is about 1,000 times current annual production. Identifiable coal reserves in the United States are 1 trillion, 500 billion tons, compared to an output last year of 600 million tons. The dramatic increase in the price of oil makes it vital that both of our countries step up the development and use of this alternative fuel. The price incentives provided us by today's market certainly encourage the rapid expansion of coal production, and in the United States that process is already underway. We believe there is also potential for cooperative efforts by our two countries in developing this resource. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE As I have noted, the United States believes that our own country benefits when nations such as India are able to improve the living conditions of their people. Such development expands potential markets for us and generally contributes to a higher standard of living around the world. - 7 - ' Moreover, even though few of us have ever had the privilege of visiting India, Americans are not blind to the economic problems which affect many of the people in this country. Nothing would please us more than to see your nation overcome these problems and to believe that we have played a helpful role in the process. Americans believe now, as they have in the past, that all of the people on this planet should have access to adequate diets and at least minimal health and educational facilities. Since the end of World War II, official development assistance to India from the United States has totaled $9 billion in concessional loans and grants, quite apart from our assistance which was channelled through international agencies. India has been the rlargest single recipient of bilateral aid from the United States — and far more than half of all bilateral foreign aid received by India since independence has originated in the United States. I have the impression, however, that some people feel assistance by the United States is a matter of the distant past. In fact, during 1975 the United States will again be the largest source of bilateral assistance for India, contributing over a quarter of a billion dollars. , Misunderstandings about the level of U.S. aid may stem in part from the fact that in recent years the bulk of our assistance to India has been channeled through international institutions, especially the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. India has received $3 billion in credits from the International Development Association (IDA)--a part of the World Bank family. This over 40 percent of IDA'S lending, and, I might add, the United States has provided over one-third of all of IDA's funds. In January of this year, during the meeting of the development committee, I delivered to the World Bank our undertaking to provide an additional $1.5 billion to IDA. As part of the international effort to ease the strain of higher oil prices for developing countries, India last year was also a major beneficiary of the IMF oil facility. Under that program, the IMF borrows largely on the basis of guarantees provided to it by the United States and other industrialized countries. In our view, the emergency fund should be phased out this year. We also believe, however, that the IMF should be equipped to provide even more resources in future years if they are needed by member nations. We have reached agreement in principle on a one-third increase in IMF quotas, and negotiations are well advanced toward making IMF resources much more fully useable. In addition, the United States has proposed a special trust fund to be administered by the IMF to assist those developing nations which may continue to face reduced growth rates because of increases in the prices of energy and other products. Funds for this purpose would be raised in part by sale of some of the - 8 gold now sitting idle in the IMF. India ^ f ^ t well be the largest beneficiary of highly concessional l o a * % £ r ° ™ " " • i f trust fund, if there is international agreement to establish it. Still another vehicle for easing the adjustment to higher oil prices should be the development committee recently set up under the aegis of the International Monetary Fun <* f ^ ^ World Bank. That committee was designed to address all ot the problems of the developing nations, but in its first meeting last October, it decided to give highest priority to their problems relating to energy. That development committee will meet again this June to consider the nature and dimensions of such economic strains. By coming here to India, I hope that 1 will be better prepared to fulfill my responsibilities as head of the U.S. Delegation to that June meeting. I might note that within the development committee, +; Finance Minister Subramaniam, with whom I have been meeting in New Delhi this week, represents India as well as several of your neighbors. My meetings with the Minister have been highly fruitful, and I look forward to working closely with him on .energy as well as other critical matters. In short, I hope that it is clear to all of you in this audience tonight that the United States is continuing to bet an active partner in providing economic assistance to developing countries. ^ But let us not mislead each other. In the final analysis, foreign assistance can make only a marginal contribution to economic development. The ultimate success will depend upon the energy and initiative of each nation's own people and the wisdom shown by governments in freeing those energies for full realization of their creative potential. In our view, there can be no doubt that a free and growing international market economy offers a powerful vehicle by which the energies of the people in all nations can be mobilized. MAINTAIN PEACE AND FREEDOM A fourth cause which binds our nations together--and the last one that I shall address tonight--is our mutual and lasting interest in preserving peace and freedom. Both of our countries were born in a struggle for independence. Both of us have known the yoke of foreign rule. And both of us are committed to the proposition that only by maintaining our independence and freedom can we fulfill our dreams for the future. y - 9 In the last five years, we believe that considerable progress has been made toward building a structure of peace in which that freedom can survive. The two most powerful nations in the world, the United States and Soviet Union, are both firmly committed to a policy of detente. Before coming to India, I visited the Soviet Union where I met with General Secretary Brezhnev. He made it very clear to me that his nation remains dedicated to detente, and I assured him that our nation is equally committed. Improvements in American and Soviet relations is but one example of progress toward a more peaceful world in recent years. In Europe, a treaty has been signed which protects the future of Berlin, once the powderkeg of the world. In the Middle East, the past year and one half witnessed the first tangible progress toward a just and lasting peace in over a quarter of a century. Despite recent setbacks, President Ford has reaffirmed America's determination to continue to play an active role in the search for peace in that troubled region. And in Asia, the United States and People's Republic of China have dismantled the wall that divided them for a quarter of a century. Some observers have concluded that because of events in South East Asia in recent weeks, the United States is in the process of withdrawing from Asia and turning our backs on our allies. There are, indeed, those in the United States today who would have us return to a policy of neo-isolationism. But let me tell you tonight that they are a distinct minority. The vast majority of Americans want America to remain involved in world affairs because they believe--as I hope you believe--that active American participation in world affairs is our best guarantee for peace. Eight days ago, President Ford addressed the American Congress in a way that expresses our policy well: "Let no potential adversary believe that our difficulties or our debates mean a slackening of our will," he said. "We will stand by our friends." "We will honor our commitments." "We will uphold our country's principles." I trust that message was clearly received in every capital in the world because it is the cornerstone of American foreign policy. Ladies and gentlemen: let me close with this thought. I know that from your perspective you have heard a great deal of rhetoric in years past about relations between India and the United States. You are more interested now in action than in words. We in America feel much the same way. We want action, and we would like concrete progress. - 10 Yet in recent years, too much has been said to poison the friendship between us. We have allowed our differences to overshadow our common interests. Let us have action--let us move ahead, as swiftly as we can--but at the same time, as I have stressed tonight, let us also remember that we share many of the same goals--expanding trade, overcoming the challenge of higher energy prices, ensuring adequate levels of economic assistance, and preserving peace and freedom. In the days and years ahead, let us never lose sight of these mutual interests but instead make them the foundation of a common effort to give our children a world that is secure from hunger and war. Thank you. OoO DepartmentoftheTREASURY OFFICE OF REVENUE SHARING WASHINGTON, D.C. 20226 (V FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tuesday, April 22, 1975 Contact: Priscilla R. Crane (202) 634-5248 The distribution of $6.4 billion in General Revenue Sharing money to be paid each of nearly 39,000 states and local governments for Federal fiscal year 1976 (Entitlement Period 6) was announced by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing today. The money will be distri- buted to all general governments in the United States in four quarterly payments, in October 1975 and January, April and July 1976. The 1976 allocations of shared revenues reflect new population and per capita income estimates. The U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Indian Affairs have provided estimated 1973 population and 1972 per capita income figures for use in calculating fiscal year 1976 amounts. For all previous entitlement periods, the most current data available were based on the 1970 decennial census. Allocations of shared revenues are made by formulas contained in the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972, using estimates of population, per capita income and tax effort. -more- -2- The individual fiscal year 1976 allocations also reflect adjustments to fiscal year 1975 amounts, based on recently-made final calculations using verified and improved data developed during the current year. The amounts that states and local governments may expect to receive have been printed on Planned Use Report forms mailed today to each State, county, city, town, township, Indian tribe and Alaskan native village in the United States. On the Planned Use Report form, due to be returned to the Office of Revenue Sharing by June 24, 1975, the Chief Executive Officer of each recipient government must report that government's plans for uses of its 1976 revenue sharing money. The Planned Use Reports must be published locally in newspapers of general circulation. In addition, the news media in each area -- including bi-lingual news media -must be informed about the report. A copy of the report and supporting documentation must be made available for public inspection at a location announced on the published report form. The publication requirement in the revenue sharing law was intended to provide citizens with information about the General Revenue Sharing program as it affects their communities. Citizens may suggest changes in proposed uses of the money before it has been spent. -more- \y Governments that fail to file Planned Use Reports with the Office of Revenue Sharing will not receive their quarterly checks on schedule. The funds will be held by the Office of Revenue Sharing until the forms have been properly published and filed. Title I of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 authorized and appropriated $30.2 billion to be distributed to all units of general government in the United States over a five year period, from January 1972 through December 1976. Thus far, the Office of Revenue Sharing has made payments totaling $18.9 billion. President Ford has announced his intention to seek renewal of General Revenue Sharing past its present deadline of December 1976. In his address of April 4, 1975 to the San Francisco Bay Area Council, the President said, "Our economy no longer can afford the waste, duplication, and misunderstandings that occur when a Federal Government tries to do for the local people what they can best achieve for themselves... I happen to deeply believe in the concept of decentralization of government power in providing wider discretionary accountability to locally elected officials and their constituencies. An example, of course, is ... general revenue sharing." -more- -4- The President mentioned some specific uses of shared revenues by Bay Area governments. He reported that some San Francisco General Revenue Sharing money had been used to provide kitchens to feed school children. The city of Santa Rosa has used shared revenues to buy gasoline to transport handicapped citizens to their doctors. San Mateo County provides a health care demonstration project, a rehabilitation program for drug users, and other health care services. The President's request to Congress that General Revenue Sharing be renewed is expected to be made shortly. 0O0 Attachment CNTITltMfNf PERIOD 6 REVENUE SHAPING SUMMARY NAME RFVENUE S H A P E O EP1 - EPS ALABAMA 345.769,?** PEVfNUE TO BE SHARED EP6 101.663,455 447,652.699 ALASKA 26,365,919 9,138,410 35,504,329 ARIZONA 203.983,457 65.250.599 269,234,056 ARKANSAS 311.734.166 65,918,463 277,652,649' CALIFORNIA 2.174.475.481 659,210.794 2,633,666.275 COLORADO 214.271,358 69,153,951 283.425.309 CONNECTICUT 259.044,280 85,529,127 344,573,407 DELAWARE 61.247,378 19,1*0.674 60,386,05? OIST OF COLUMBIA 91,015,007 26.646,966 117,663,975 FLORIDA 597.289,935 200.669,336 797,959.271 GEORGIA 426.347,672 133,397,968 559,745,640 HAWAII 69,984,345 27,629,635 117,813,980 IDAHO 82,163,518 25,289,112 107,452,630 ILLINOIS 1,042,349.983 321,729,268 1,364.079,251 INOIANA 432,198,469 128,859,267 561.057.756 IOWA 288.306.564 62,851,506 371,158.070 KANSAS 195,768,479 58,220,986 254,009,465 KENTUCKY 332,855,237 102,896,596 435,753.835 LOUISIANA 467.807,273 136,853,100 604,660,373 MAINE 124,387,044 40,715,263 165,102.307 MARYLAND* 403,979,969 126,176,694 530,156,663 HASSACHUETTS 644.779.S44 206.460.614 851.240.358 MICHIGAN 666,490,654 267,102,625 1.133.593.279 MINNFSOTA 404,836,r2n 132.849,806 537.685.834 MISSISSIPPI 334,504,MA 94,872,326 429,376,844 MISSOURI MONTANA 3fl?,5??.'»7T *n4.7H?.?CA 80,70?,.03 1??.?^9.B79 23,713,490 NLKWA'jKA 146,140,00.1 42.159.6HH lHM.299,691 NEVADA 44,766,933 14.705,591 59,492,524 NEK HAMPSHIRE 65.362,840 20,001,162 85,364,002 NEW JERSEY 640.537,213 198,475,091 839.012.304 NEW MEXICO 128,594,442 39,611,289 168,205.731 NEW YORK 2.275.630,683 719,208,213 2,994,838,896 NORTH CAROLINA 523.366,343 155.257,732 678,624,075 NORTH DAKOTA 80.&20.T09 19.264,724 99,784,733 OHIO 814,153,791 259,449,222 1,073,603,013 OKLAHOMA 228,537,093 70.392,755 298,929,646 OREGON 202,571,534 66,671,611 269,243,145 PENNSYLVANIA 1,072,510,927 336,766,093 1.409,277.020 RHODE ISLAND 91,778,114 27,423.531 119,201,645 SOUTH CAROLINA 279,705.180 89,328,908 369,034,088 SOUTH DAKOTA 90.240,403 25,280,605 115.521.008 TENNESSEE 388,326,616 117,421,041 505,747,657 TEXAS 966.735,390 309,036,475 1,275.771,865 UTAH 120,340,751 37,252,451 157,593,202 VERHONT 57.406,739 19,664,412 77,071.151 VIRGINIA 404.620,487 128,277,580 532,898,067 WASHINGTON 294,339,834 92,606,685 366,946.519 WEST VIRGINIA 200.850.356 57,280,277 258,130.633 WISCONSIN 513,358,169 160.549.S06 673.907,675 WYOMING 37,676,954 10,025,746 47,702,700 •NATIONAL TOTALS* ?0,453.311.S06 6,350,714.542 26,804,026,048 104,416.793 Contact: Herbert C. Shelley 964-8256 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 21, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES ACTION ON COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATION Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, David R. Macdonald, announced today that an amendment to a prior "Notice of Receipt of Countervailing Duty Petitions" is being issued to end the investigation of leather products from Argentina. Notice of this action will be published in the Federal Register of April 22, 1975. On January 15, 1975, the Treasury Department issued a "Notice of Receipt of Countervailing Duty Petitions" in the Federal Register listing 30 commodities from various countries including leather products from Argentina. Mr. Macdonald explained in a January 9 press release that the Trade Act of 1974 established a new procedure that required Treasury to publish countervailing duty petitions without delay and as received. The Act further provided that petitions that had been received before enactment of the Trade Act were to be handled as if they were received on the day after enactment. Subsequent to the publication of the leather products petition on January 15, the petitioner informed Treasury that for purposes of the petition, leather products was meant to be defined only as leather footwear. Non-rubber footwear from Argentina is included in an ongoing investigation, in which a "Notice of Preliminary Countervailing Duty Determination" was published in the Federal Register of February 18, 1975. Accordingly, the leather products investigation will be incorporated into the investigation of non-rubber footwear from Argentina. DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 1 W ^ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 21, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.7 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.7 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on April 24, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: 26-week bills maturingOctober 23, 1975 RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing July 24, 1975 High Low Average Price 98.597 98.560 98.571 Discount Rate 5.550% 5.697% 5.653% Investment Rate _J 5.72% 5.88% 5.83% Discount Rate 5.980% 6.120% 6.067% Price 96.977 96.906 96.933 Investment Rate 1/ 6.27% 6.42% 6.36% Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted "0%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 37%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received i Boston $ 26,465,000 New York 3 ,352,150,000 Philadelphia 28,880,000 Cleveland 60,665,000 Richmond 41,700,000 Atlanta 34,665,000 Chicago 172,105,000 St. Louis 51,990,000 24,965,000 Minneapolis 42,895,000 Kansas City 32,220,000 Dallas San Francisco 223,260,000 ' TOTALS$4,091,960,000 Accepted $ 26,465,000 2,093,350,000 28,880,000 55,665,000 40,155,000 33,665,000 168,605,000 42,190,000 24,965,000 37,895,000 31,220,000 117,260,000 Received i Accepted $ 7,015,000 $ 7,015,000 3,297,565,000 2,109,665,000 6,565,000 6,565,000 72,610,000 62,610,000 33,155,000 27,155,000 47,410,000 40,410,000 286,135,000 266,485,000 30,335,000 23,705,000 21,060,000 15,800,000 19,540,000 15,970,000 25,070,000 25,070,000 219,575,000 99,575,000 $2,700,315,000 a/ $4,066,035,000 $2,700,025,000 b/ £' Includes $400,895,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. £' Includes $150,420,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 ELEPHONE W04-2041 April 22, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,400,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued May 1, 1975, as follows: 9L-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated January 30, 1975, and to mature July 31, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XG6), originally issued in the amount of $2,301,365,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182_day bills, for $2,700,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated and to mature October 30, 1975 May 1, 1975, (CUSIP No. 912793 XV3). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing May 1, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $4,597,975,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and. as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,643,165,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, April 28, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with^respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. own account. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on May 1, 1975, " in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing May 1, 1975. ment. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Branch. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or E Hello, I'm delighted to be here. And I'll try to follow the advice of my husband Ed, who tells me that a speech should have a good beginning and a good ending, and what's good about them is that they're very close together. I am here to ask for your support on behalf of the United States Savings Bonds Program. I am here to give you a few reasons why I_ believe in the program, and what we in the Treasury Department hope for in the way of accomplishments this Bicentennial year of 197 5. Savings Bonds have been part of America's life for many*years. They belong — in cities, rural areas and mid-town Manhatten. And I, like most of you, have seen them from three different viewpoints. As a young teenager, I was involved with the War Bond drives of World War Two. On Saturday'afternoons, I and my other young friends would sell bonds from the steps of the post office of my hometown of Mountainair, New Mexico. It was the patriotic thing to do. It still Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, to.a TSIA Luncheon in Burlington, Vermont on April 22, 1975. \y -2- is, in fact, during our current war on inflation. Later on, as a young wife and mother during the 1950's,.my husband and I cashed in our bonds to make the down payment on our first home. Then, we bought more bonds because it was a convenient, secure way for someone like myself — spenders — the last of the big to save for a rainy day. My yearnings often exceeded my husband's earnings, and it was ccnforting to know that the ir.oney supply in one small corner of our budget was actually increasing. Today, the interest rate of 6 percent is ir.uch higher than it was 20 years ago. And even that 6 percent, attractive though it is, doesn't: tell the whole story, because tax advantages can often raise that to the equivalent of an 8 or 9 percent return. And since April 15th was just a veek ago, I think we're all pretty conscious of taxes right new. Today, also, as the United States Treasurer and the National Director cf the Savings Bends Division, I continue to appreciate the patriotic and personal benefits of bonds. But I have a better understanding of their third role — which is the part they play in our nation's debt structure. Debt is a four-letter word to you Verncnters and we New Mexicans. Federal debt. Eut let's take a closer look at our -3- By the end of February, the public debt outstanding for the nation had risen to almost $500 billion — actually $499.8 billion. Some $220.8 billion of this is held by the Federal Reserve and various government trust accounts, and these do not pose marketing or refunding problems. Of the remaining $27 9 billion of the public debt in private hands, about 23 percent — or 64.8 billion — is in the form of United States Savings Bonds. This 23 cents of every dollar in the publicly-held portion of the Federal debt represents far and away the r.cct stable part of the debt. Specifically, E and H bonds remain outstanding for more than 6 years, on the average, as compared to less than 3 years, on the average, for other marketable instruments. Let's go over this again. Ten years ago, the average maturity of the privately held marketable debt not in Savings Bonds was 5 years and 9 months. But this has declined by almost 50%. Today it averages only 3 years. This is unsatisfactory for two reasons. First, as the holding time decreases, the debt becomes more liquid or "spendable". This can be very inflationary. Second, the job and the cost of refinancing a rapidly maturing debt is difficult and expensive. Even after eliminating Treasury bills, which come due as \y -4- frequently as every 90 days, it is still true that nearly 1 of every 5 dollars in marketable securities held by the general public reaches maturity and needs refunding every 365 days. So I repeat — on the basis of past experience, Savings Bonds sold today, on the average, will not be redeemed for 6 years — or more than twice as long as dollars obtained through marketable issues. This is true no matter what you hear about "X" number of bonds being cashed in after the minimum waiting period. By and large, our buyers hold onto their bonds. In addition, they are buying more bonds. we had the largest dollar sales since 1945. In 1974, It looks like this year may be even better, despite the general economy. Cash sales of E and H bonds for the first quarter of 1975 totaled 1 billion 890 million dollars, the highest first-quarter figures in 30 years. These figures may go lower later this year, as people reach that "rainy day" they've been saving for. Vermont certainly did its share in sales. Your 1974 sales were more than 17 percent above 1973 figures. And the upward trend continues. February 197 5 sales for your state were 10 percent ahead of the same period in 1974. That well-known Vermont thriftiness is at work, along -5- with some terrific volunteer leadership. I understand that you've been extremely fortunate to have a father and son succession as state chairmen. Misters Levi Smith, Senior and Junior, between them have been state chairmen since the inception o£ the job. That's real thriftiness! Vermonters were always leaders. Being something of a history buff, I remember that Vermont was the first state to prohibit slavery back some 198 years ago. And I recall that one of the slave-holding Southern states was so unhappy at this independent approach that they adopted a resolution asking the President to hire enough Irishmen to dig a deep ditch around Vermont so that it could be floated out into the Atlantic Ocean and set adrift! I'm glad Mr. President said No. America would be much poorer without your state and its green mountains and good people. We are all part of a great country. And it d^s a great country. In the last 9 months, as United States Treasurer, I've traveled to 27 states for the Savings Bonds program. And as I fly over our Eastern cities, our Midwestern prairies and our Western mountains and deserts, I look out the window and I am constantly reminded of what we Americans have and what we have built in our almost 200 years as a Nation. -6- We have our wonderful, physical land; our people, who came from all corners of the world to become Americans; and our special,ideas and attitudes that make us the nation that we are. We have our free enterprise economic system, which has doubled the medium income of American families in the past 25 years, even taking inflation into account. We have a country in which 60 percent of all families own their own homes; where the number of Americans going to college has doubled in the past 15 years; and where even our income tax burden is the second lowest among the top 13 industrial nations of the world. No other country has our manpower, our brainpower, our technology. And, despite all cynicism, the word "America" is recognized all over the world as a very special word standing for a country unlike any other. I am 100 percent with my boss, Treasury Secretary William Simon, when he says that "those who take a perverse delight in proclaiming the end of the American dream are dead wrong." America is a dream, and a reality, and a home for the hopes and lives of 212 million of us. And United States Savings Bonds are a grassroots part of that America. You know as well as I do the benefits of Savings lib -7- Bonds. Their personal benefits as a savings program ... their boost to America's future ... and their importance to America's present. Bonds are good for the individual, good for the country, and good for our 3rd century of existence. Also, you know as well as I that fully 95 percent of people working in the bond program are volunteers like yourselves. We ask a lot of you. We ask busy, important people to become personally concerned and involved. The only reason we can do this is because our product is so great. So, you are what makes our program go. There's no Big Brother — no Big Daddy -- in Washington, to do the job. We have less than 460 Treasury people, scattered throughout our 50 states, to coordinate the work of volunteers. Savings Bonds are the government — non- government program. And we feel that's the way to be both effective and economical. So, as you help the program go and grow — or it doesn't. it does It's that direct. We need you. The country needs you. And the country and the people need our program. In America's present economic climate, this may be the most important year for Savings Bonds since the 1930's. We are confronted with enormous economic problems. But we also have tremendous opportunities. Let's roll up our rev -8sleeves, and roll up a winner, by making this Bicentennial year a "buy bonds" year as well. Thank you. DepartmentoftheTREASURY OFFICE OF REVENUE SHARING WASHINGTON, D.C. 20226 ELEPH0NE 634-5248 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tuesday, April 22, 1975 Contact: Priscilla Crane (202) 634-5248 Five publications of significance to the General Revenue Sharing program were issued this week by the U. S. Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing. They are the following: 1. General Revenue Sharing FINAL DATA ELEMENTS Entitlement Period 5, a complete list of the final population, per capita income, adjusted tax and intergovernmental transfer data used to allocate General Revenue Sharing money to each of nearly 39,000 states and local governments for Entitlement Period 5, which is equivalent to Federal fiscal year 1975. 2. General Revenue Sharing FINAL INTERSTATE DATA 5 ALLOCATIONS Entitlement Period 5, contains detailed data definitions and the final data elements used for interstate allocations of shared revenues for Entitlement Period 5, and includes computations for both the 3 factor formula and 5 factor formula used in allocating the funds. -2- 3. General Revenue Sharing INITIAL DATA ELEMENTS Entitlement Period 6, a list of data elements for each recipient state and local government, used to make initial allocations of Entitlement Period 6 (Federal fiscal year 1976) funds. 4. General Revenue Sharing, INITIAL INTERSTATE DATA § ALLOCATIONS Entitlement Period 6, contains the detailed data definitions and data elements used to calculate initial allocations of shared revenues at the state area level for Entitlement Period 6, and includes computations for the 3 factor formula and 5 factor formula. 5. GENERAL REVENUE SHARING SIXTH PERIOD ENTITLEMENTS, a book in which are listed initial allocations of revenue sharing funds for the Sixth Entitlement Period for each recipient government, final Entitlement Period 5 amounts, Entitlement Period 5 adjustments, and cumulative totals of amounts allocated to each unit of general government from the beginning of the program in 1972 through Federal Fiscal Year 1976. The documents issued by the Office of Revenue Sharing this week may be inspected.in the Office of Revenue Sharing at 2401 E Street, N.W. in Washington, D. C. or in the Treasury Department Library at 15th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Copies have been sent to each Member of Congress and to each Governor. ly The General Revenue Sharing program was authorized by Title I of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 (P.L. 92-512). The Act authorizes the distribution of $30.2 billion over a fiveyear period, from January 1972 through December 1976. Money is paid on a regular, quarterly basis to each unit of general government in the United States -- including nearly 39,000 states, counties, cities, towns, townships, Indian tribes and Alaskan native villages. Each recipient government's amount is allocated using formulas set forth in the law, based upon data supplied primarily by the U. S. Bureau of the Census. The data used in calculating Fifth and Sixth Entitlement Period amounts, and the allocations themselves are the subjects of the publications released by the Office of Revenue Sharing this week. -30- v SSL2L7! DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 .w TELEPHONE WO4-2041 r (Ly FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE STEPHEN S. GARDNER DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON CONSUMER AFFAIRS HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, CURRENCY AND HOUSING TUESDAY, APRIL 22, 1975, 10:00 A.M. THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN AND MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE: I am pleased to be with you today to offer strong support for the objectives of H.R. 3386, a bill which would amend the Equal Credit Opportunity Act in order to prohibit discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, or age. The bill meets an important need to expand the reach of present law, which is confined to prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sex or marital status and generally all discrimination in lending to finance housing purchases specifically. Credit should be equally available to all worthy borrowers in our society. Americans have long enjoyed one of the most comprehensive systems of private credit availability in the developed countries of the world. The multiplicity of credit arrangements available to our citizens are uniquely diversified both in the type of credit granted and in the type of institution or individual granting credit. With the development of electronic computerized techniques we can expect further advances in practical and useful credit conveniences. It is sound to provide a simple workable law to rule out prejudice from this system. To provide such a law we must recognize that a decision to grant or deny credit does involve the exercise of judgment by any potential lender on such fundamental matters as the credit worthiness of the would-be borrower and the likelihood of timely repayment. In your consideration of this legislation I am sure you will take account of this fact, both in selecting a means of enforcement and in deterWS-282 mining appropriate sanctions to assure compliance with the Act. -t. We urge that the legislation or the legislative history make clear that there are certain factors that are appropriate in making credit decisions. For example, a lender considering a long-term loan to a person who is eligible for retirement or early retirement should not be precluded by the prohibition against discrimination because of age from inquiring into the plans of the prospective borrower to cease active employment before the loan is repaid. In another example, it should not be improper for a lender to seek to obligate both spouses if the decision to extend credit has relied on the assets or earning ability of both. There are other such examples that I feel sure the committee will discover in subsequent testimony which will provide additional history for the regulatory agencies charged with enforcement. In addition, there are commonly accepted and necessary commercial practices in the business of granting credit that should not be discouraged. An example is the declination of a credit inquiry before any prepared application is submitted. Another example is the unwillingness of a financial institution to grant certain types of loans for business reasons even though such loans were offered in the past. Discrimination is difficult to detect and prevent. Even the most complete record of a credit denial does not always indicate the most important reason for the decision. The public will not be well served if the administration of the Act is cumbersome and complex and inconsistent with the nondiscriminatory credit techniques that have been developed from the experience of lenders over many years. It is my opinion that compliance with the Act will be obtained principally through the use of regulatory enforcement and wide spread publicity. The punitive clause of the bill would permit the assessment of punitive damages up to $50,000 or one percent of the net worth of a lender, whichever is greater. This presumes that large lenders such as Sears Roebuck, General Motors, Household Finance, and major banks are offenders and I have no knowledge of that possibility. I think responsible lenders may very well respond without such a threat, and it is less likely to have the same effect on the many smaller retail establishments where a large number of consumer installment contracts orginate. While some monetary penalty for noncompliance seems appropriate, it may be adequate to provide to a successful plaintiff the recovery of his or her actual damages plus all costs associated with the recovery effort, including attorneys' fees and other costs. - 3 - Section 1(b) of the bill provides an exemption for certain loan assistance programs. We would urge that the Committee be satisfied that this section of the bill does not result in the permitting of discrimination for government-sponsored lending programs when such discrimination would be prohibited in private commercial transactions. In order to help insure that loan applicants are aware of their rights under this proposed legislation, the Committee might consider incorporating a provision requiring establishments granting credit to display suitable notices stating that cUscximination in lending is unlawful. Implementing regulations could require, depending upon circumstances, that such notices be printed in more than one language. Under the present Equal Credit Opportunity Act, an action may be brought in any United States District Court, or in any other court of competent jurisdiction, thus affording an individual a choice of Federal or state courts. Hcwever, the bill would limit individuals solely to actions in the United States District Courts. We question the need for this change, particularly considering the heavy work load of the U.S. District Courts. The Committee, if it has not done so already, might wish to consult with the Judicial Conference of the United States on this matter. In summary the objectives of H.R. 3386 are not only cxxtmandable but a basic and integral part of our American economic system and should be incorporated into law. I commend the Conmittee for this work. I also urge that in your deliberations full recognition be given to the great body of experience that exists in the public and private credit systems of the country. I am sure that we can prohibit discriinination without dampening the innovation and development of beneficial nondiscriminatory credit practices. Thank you. # # # DepanmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 April 23, 1975 Contact: John P. Plum 964-2615 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE INDUSTRIAL GOLD PURCHASES DECLINE 31 PERCENT Net purchases of gold for United States industrial purposes in 1974 dropped 31 percent to 4,651,000 ounces, the lowest level in 10 years, according to figures compiled by Treasury Department's Office of Domestic Gold and Silver Operations. The total excludes an estimated 1,350,000 ounces bought for non-industrial use in December. This surge of buying was by dealers in anticipation of demand by individuals following termination of restrictions on ownership of gold at the end of 1974. The sharp decline in industrial use last year was attributed to the rise in the price of gold and the general economic slowdown. Gold inventories held by industrial users were reduced by 178,000 ounces during 1974. A further decline is expected this year, since the ratio of inventories to output of fabricated gold products remains high, Thomas W. Wolfe, Director of the Office of Domestic Gold and Silver Operations, said. Net purchases of gold of 4,651,000 ounces in 1974 compared with 6,729,000 ounces in 1973, and 7,285,000 ounces in 1972. The 178,000 ounces decrease in gold inventory in 1974 compared with 91,000 ounces increase in 1973, and 32,000 ounces increase in 1972. Gold used in jewelry and arts in 1974 amounted to 2,402,000 ounces, compared to 3,473,000 ounces in 1973, and 4,344,000 ounces in 1972. Gold used for dental purposes totaled 509,000 ounces in 1974, as against 679,000 ounces in 1973, and 750,000 ounces in 1972. The use of gold for all other industrial purposes, including space and defense, totaled 1,740,000 ounces in 1974, as compared to 2,577,000 ounces in 1973 and 2,191,000 ounces in 1972. oOo WS-284 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY, 10:00 A.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23, 1975 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE DAVID R. MACDONALD ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY (ENFORCEMENT, OPERATIONS, AND TARIFF AFFAIRS) BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE JUVENILE DELINQUENCY OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY UNITED STATES SENATE ON PROPOSED FIREARMS LEGISLATION WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23, 1975 Mr. Chairman, I am David R. Macdonald, Assistant Secretary for Enforcement, Operations, and Tariff Affairs, Treasury Department. I am pleased to be here today to discuss with you several legislative proposals which are being considered by the Treasury Department in the area of firearms regulation. Accompanying me are James B. Clawson, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Operations; James J. Featherstone, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Enforcement; Rex D. Davis, Director, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms; and Marvin J. Dessler, Acting Chief Counsel, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. This Committee has undertaken the awesome task of isolating and legislatively addressing itself to one of the most basic and distressing national problems — that of rooting out the causes of juvenile crime. Handgun availability is undoubtedly a factor to be considered in pursuing the solution to this problem. Nevertheless, we believe that any discussion of gun control in the context of a growing problem of juvenile crime and delinquency may imply a simplistic and exclusive cause and effect relationship between the two. There is no doubt, in our opinion, that the easy availability of handguns does contribute to the opportunity to commit violent crimes and thus to the frequency with which they are committed. This may be particularly true in the case of adolescents, as indicated in Tables 3 and 4, appended to this statement. Nevertheless, efforts at gun control legislation may address more of a symptom than a cause of juvenile delinquency. This is not to say that any legislative effort WS 283 -2in this area will be fruitless. I would, however, qualify the importance of my testimony on gun control laws before this Committee by pointing out that deeper, more basic roots may be found to the thorny tree of violent juvenile crime in a growing lack of confidence in the ability of State and local enforcement agencies to protect the public, and to loss of faith in the ability of the judicial system to bring criminals swiftly and certainly to trial and conviction, particularly in large metropolitan areas. This loss of confidence finds objective support in the low percentage of convictions to arrests, as indicated in Table 5, appended to this statement. This loss of faith leads naturally to a propensity on the part of citizenry to attempt their own protection from criminal elements — hence, a race to arms for selfprotection. Even beyond the loss of confidence in our judicial system, there appears to be a deeper cause of anxiety and instability in a large section of our youth which has resulted from a weakening of our social institutions. The decline in stable social institutions historically appears to have gone hand in hand with a rise in violence. Thus, the solutions to difficulties which the Treasury Department has experienced in administering the Gun Control Act of 1968 which I am about to discuss do not purport to present a "cure-all" legislative solution to the Nation's crime problem or to youthful involvement in it. Instead, the proposals represent what the Department tentatively considers to be realistic and administratively feasible responses to some of the more critical facets of the firearms dilemma and which responses should not engender unwarranted and deleterious side-effects. These proposals have not been cleared with the Domestic Council or the President. Generally speaking, it has been the experience of the Treasury Department that the basic precepts embodied in the Gun Control Act of 1968 present a workable format for regulating the sale of firearms in the United States. That is to say, the Federal dealer-licensee concept and its attendant recording provisions and restrictions upon the transfer of firearms have proved to be a viable approach -3to the firearms problem. Nevertheless, experience has also shown that existing law is inadequate in many respects. More specifically, the Department perceives the following to be the most critical deficiencies: (1) the absence of sufficient licensing standards to insure that Federal licenses will only be issued to responsible, law-abiding persons who actually intend to conduct a bona fide business; (2) the absence of controls upon the importation of parts for and the domestic manufacture and assembly of small, lightweight, easily concealable, and inexpensive handguns commonly known as "Saturday Night Specials"; and (3) the absence of an effective statutory means to prosecute and punish felons and other dangerous persons for the possession and use of firearms. The legislative history underlying the licensing provisions of the Gun Control Act of 1968 reflects a major Congressional concern that licenses would be issued only to responsible, law-abiding persons actually engaged in or intending to engage in business as importers, manufacturers, or dealers in firearms or ammunition. Unfortunately, it has become apparent in recent years that Congressional aspirations in this regard have been frustrated by a proliferation of applications from individuals who never intended to engage in a bona fide firearms business, but who merely desire a Federal license in order to obtain firearms or ammunition for their personal use at wholesale prices or to receive firearms in interstate commerce for that purpose. Frequently, such individuals are undercapitalized and lack both the business experience and financial capacity needed to conduct a business. In many instances no business is conducted at all, or a marginal business is carried on which disregards Federal regulations. Present Federal law requires every applicant for a Federal firearms dealers license who pays his $10 annual fee to be issued a license within 45 days unless he is under indictment for a felony, convicted of a felony, a -4fugitive from justice or a drug user or addict. Consequently, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms has been compelled to issue literally thousands of licenses to individuals, not all of whom engage in the business of dealing in firearms full time. Under existing law, more than 156,000 individuals or entities are currently licensed to conduct firearms businesses in the United States. Since the passage of the 1968 Act, this figure has increased yearly. Of this number, it is estimated that less than 30 percent actually conduct a bona fide firearms business. Due to the sheer magnitude of the number of licensees, it is impossible for ATF to monitor each licensee and it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a meaningful and effective compliance program based upon even random or periodic inspections. Accordingly, the Department proposes a number of interrelated amendments to the Gun Control Act which are designed to tighten existing licensing standards in order to reduce the number of Federal licensees and discourage what might be called "nominal" applications. First, we propose amending the existing licensing standards by including a provision which would permit the Treasury's Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) to inquire into each applicant's business experience, financial standing, and trade connections in order to determine whether the applicant is likely to commence the proposed business within a reasonable period of time and maintain such business in conformity with Federal law. The proposed provision has been utilized for a number of years in the issuance of liquor permits to-persons engaged in liquor businesses under the Federal Alcohol Administration Act. In this regard, the provision has functioned fairly and effectively and has been reasonably construed by the courts. If incorporated into the firearms licensing area, the proposed amendment would be of significant value in weeding out "nominal" or disreputable licensees. ^AS^an additional means of strengthening the licensing standards, we would propose an amendment which would require a finding that the business to be conducted would not be prohibited by any State or local law applicable in the jurisdiction where the applicant's premises is located. K1 This provision would further a major Congressional objective in enacting the Gun Control Act which was to provide support to State and local law enforcement officials and would furnish the Department with a specific statutory basis for denying a firearms application where State and local law would prohibit the business sought to be conducted. A third proposal is to amend the Act to create special license categories for ammunition dealers, gunsmiths and dealers in long guns only. Experience has shown that a large portion of existing licensees (perhaps 20 to 30 percent) are engaged almost exclusively in selling ammunition. In fact, many of these licensees are small "mom and pop" stores which carry ammunition only as a convenience to their customers. Under existing law, separate categories do not exist for these persons and they receive the same dealer's license that is issued to firearms dealers. The establishment of these special licenses would restrict those persons to engaging in their limited activities. Hence, neither a gunsmith nor an ammunition retailer could lawfully sell firearms, and a long gun dealer could not sell handguns, but a firearms dealer would be permitted to sell all firearms, ammunition and to repair firearms. The new licensing structure would facilitate a more efficient and economical assignment of inspection priorities since these "limited" licensees would not require the same scrutiny as would unlimited firearms dealers. We would also propose that the fee schedule be amended by increasing license fees generally, particularly for (1) firearms dealers handling handguns and (2) pawnbrokers dealing in firearms. Thus, we would raise the handgun firearms dealer's fee to a high multiple of the present $10 paid annually which would assure that only those seriously interested in pursuing the business would pay it, and we would increase the pawnbroker - gun dealer's license to an amount which basically finances frequent inspections by ATF personnel. With regard to the increase in license fees for pawnbrokers, it should be noted that ATF's "Project Identification," which involved the tracing of firearms used in crime in eight major urban areas, reflected that 30 to 35 percent of the handguns used in crime had passed -6through pawnshops. In order to encourage applicants to apply for a "limited" license, we would establish substantially lower fees for gunsmiths and dealers in ammunition only, and moderate fees for firearms dealers who do not deal in handguns. We believe that the suggested fee modifications will be reasonable and would not impose an impediment to any applicant who is truly desirous of engaging in a bona fide firearms business. Rather, the increased fees would discourage the filing of license applications by those who would not or should not qualify for licensing. From a fiscal standpoint, the increased fees would, of course, absorb a portion of the Department's costs with respect to processing and investigating license applications. We also find that there is a need for a greater range of penalties than presently exists with which to deal with firearms dealers who violate the laws. In this connection, we believe that ATF should have authority to suspend firearms licenses and accept monetary offers in compromise for such violations. Under existing law, licenses are subject to revocation if the holder has violated any provision of law or regulation. The only alternative to administrative revocation, however, is the criminal prosecution of the licensee for violations that frequently are only inadvertent. While any violation of the Gun Control laws may be deemed to be serious, some are less serious than others and do not warrant the institution of criminal or revocation proceedings. Even inadvertent violations, however, may warrant administrative action less severe than license revocation. The "suspension" and "offer in compromise" authority would afford ATF a more flexible vehicle with which to equitably insure compliance. Ample precedent exists for the granting of suspension and compromise authority under other laws administered by the Treasury Department, including laws relating to regulation of distilled spirits and tobacco industries. This authority would appear to be equally appropriate in the area of firearms regulation. Turning now to the matter of handguns, the problems engendered by the proliferation of handguns in American cities has become self-evident and requires no real elaboration at this point. Suffice it to say that recent estimates place the number of handguns in America at about 40 million while deaths by handguns have increased almost 50 percent in the last decade. Accordingly, the Department's proposals embrace a number of provisions which are directed at the handgun problem generally and more specifically at the proliferation of low quality, inexpensive handguns known as "Saturday Night Specials." In recent years the Department has carefully evaluated a number of legislative proposals which have had as their principal objective the eventual removal of the "Saturday Night Special" from the American scene. Although the various proposals have taken a wide range of approaches, all of the proposals are premised upon the fact that these small, lightweight, easily concealable and inexpensive handguns present a unique danger to the American public. Thus far, one of the difficulties encountered in these legislative attempts to address the Saturday Night Special problem has centered around the formulation of adequate criteria to define that term. Obviously, effective proscriptions cannot be implemented against such firearms unless the law also defines with precision what weapons are to be affected. In this regard, we propose that the so-called "factoring criteria" utilized under the Gun Control Act of 1968 for determining the eligibility of handguns for importation under the "sporting purpose" test be adopted, with certain modifications, for use in the Saturday Night Special area. Thus, we would propose that it be made unlawful for any licensed manufacturer or licensed importer to manufacture, assemble, or import for purposes of sale in the United States any handgun that has not been approved pursuant to detailed specification criteria which would be set forth in the statute. Prescribing the criteria by statute would negate the objection that mutable standards determined by administrative officials govern the trade in handguns. Under such criteria, the key characteristic would be overall size: No handgun failing to meet certain minimum size standards would -8be acceptable for manufacture, assembly, or importation. In the case of revolvers, a barrel length of greater than three inches would be mandatory. In addition, various safety features would also be required before a weapon would be acceptable. Other characteristics would be dealt with by means of a point system which would take into account such characteristics as size, frame construction, weight, caliber, safety features, and miscellaneous equipment. In addition to the prerequisites of size and safety features, a pistol and a revolver to be approved for manufacture, assembly, or importation must achieve a minimum point value (85 points in the case of a pistol and 60 points in the case of a revolver). Although the Department's proposal adopts the same fundamental approach as the existing "factoring system," the existing system has been modified somewhat by increasing the point value which must be met before a handgun is acceptable. A wider variety of characteristics are provided, however, under which a particular handgun model can achieve points. It is believed that the revised point system is more objective and provides greater flexibility to allow quality handguns to meet the criteria for approval, while at the same time eliminating the same lightweight, easily concealable, cheap handguns which have no legitimate sporting purpose. Exceptions would be provided for sales to law enforcement agencies. Modification of handguns which causes them to lose their qualification would be prohibited. Further, our proposal would include provisions for the notification of licensed importers and manufacturers of the results of handgun evaluations and would afford judicial review of adverse decisions by ATF. In order to provide an identical test to cover both foreign and domestic handguns, we would recommend that the import provisions of the 1968 Act be amended to substitute the detailed criteria I have described for the general language of the "sporting purpose" test for importation. Our proposals dealing with the so-called "Saturday Night Special" are directed primarily at licensed importers hi and licensed manufacturers and would, therefore, strike at the source of the problem. While these proposals would not rid the nation of these firearms, they would effectively stop the yearly flood of cheap handguns into the domestic marketplace. In this connection, recent ATF studies disclose that handguns recently acquired are those largely used in the commission of violent crimes. Moreover, given also increased controls over interstate dealings in handguns, our proposal to remove the supply source of Saturday Night Specials could place the problem where it may be adequately further regulated by State Governments as they see fit. As the Gun Control Act now stands, second or subsequent offenders who are convicted of the offenses of carrying unlawfully or using a firearm in the commission of a Federal crime are subject to a mandatory minimum of two years imprisonment and a maximum of twenty-five years imprisonment. We believe that the Act should be modified so that a mandatory sentencing provision would be applicable to first offenders as well as to recidivists. That is to say, we would propose for first offenders a mandatory minimum sentence of one year, with a discretionary fiveyear maximum. The new penalty proposal would not be so harsh as to be counterproductive in terms of acceptability by courts and juries, but would serve as a more formidable deterrent to the misuse of firearms. Finally, we propose new legislation which would prohibit felons and other classes of dangerous persons from possessing firearms. While existing law, enacted as Title VII of the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, was intended by the Congress to proscribe mere possession, receipt, and transportation of firearms by such persons, this law was construed by the Supreme Court on December 20, 1971, in a five to two decision in United States v. Bass to require proof of an interstate commerce nexus with respect to these offenses. More specifically, it was held that the statutory language "in commerce or affecting commerce" modified each offense defined by the statute. In deciding the Bass case as it did, the Supreme Court rejected the Government's position that mere possession constitutes a crime under Title VII, a position which was upheld by five of the six United States Courts of Appeals that had ruled on this issue. -10A review of the legislative history of the existing statute convincingly demonstrates that the true intent of Congress was to prohibit mere possession of firearms by certain classes of people deemed too dangerous to society to own them. This intent, however, was thwarted by the use of inartful statutory language which led to the narrow construction by a majority of the Court. Under the doctrine of United States v. Perez, 402 U.S. 146, moreover, we believe that a valid finding can be made by Congress that the possession of weapons by such persons itself poses a threat to interstate commerce, and thus that a commerce nexus need not be proved as to each violation. Accordingly, the Department would propose to delete the troublesome language from the statute. If amended in this manner, these laws could be enforced as Congress originally intended. Additionally, we propose to repeal existing Title VII and place the substance of its provisions, together with needed corrective amendments, within chapter 44 of Title 18, United States Code (Title I of the Gun Control Act of 1968). This chapter, of course, contains all other provisions of Federal law relative to the shipment, transportation, and receipt of firearms by felons and other proscribed categories of persons. It should also be noted that Title VII was a floor amendment to the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act, and it is obvious that less than normal consideration was given to conforming it to Title IV of the Act, the predecessor to chapter 44. As a result, the categories of persons who are prohibited by chapter 44 from shipping, transporting, or receiving firearms in interstate commerce and to whom Federal firearms licensees may not lawfully sell firearms are not in conformity with the proscribed categories of persons under Title VII. Therefore, we propose to make these categories more closely conform. Our proposals, Mr. Chairman, are addressed primarily to the question of interstate traffic in firearms and particularly handguns. We would like to preserve local control over gun regulation. Our studies have convinced us, however, that an interstate traffic exists with respect to guns used m crimes which deserves more Federal attention than it has received. We believe that the proposals in the area of dealer licensing are somewhat analogous to the regulation of brokers and dealers in investment securities J1 u under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. What we are attempting to do is place ATF in a position to control the "boilershops" in the handgun field and provide the necessary support to enable local law enforcement agencies to be effective instead of becoming engulfed in an uncontrollable interstate handgun traffic. We also believe that these legislative proposals are acceptable to a majority of the people in this country. With the polarized state of public opinion on the subject of gun control, it is doubly important to structure laws regulating human endeavor in such a manner that the incentive to comply with the law is maximized and its enforceability is enhanced by its acceptance. A drastic extension of regulations in this area we believe can pose a real danger of creating substantial illicit traffic in handguns, controlled by organized crime groups, unless the underpinnings of public acceptance accompany the regulations sought. We appreciate your having provided us with an opportunity to appear here today and to present our views on the subject of firearms control. At this point, my associates and I would be glad to attempt to answer any questions which the Subcommittee may have. INDEX OF VIOLENT CRIME, UNITED STATES, 1960-1973 "IV UMBER YEAR OF OFFENSES: VIOLENT CRIMES MURDER FORCIBLE RAPE ROBBERY ( I AGGRAVATED ASSAULT 1973 869,470 19,510 51,000 382,680 416,270 1972 828,820 18,550 46,480 374,790 389,000 1971 810,680 17,670 41,940 386,150 364,920 1970 733,530 15,890 37,690 348,460 331,480 1969 657,050 14,670 36,880 297,650 307,850 1968 590,640 13,720 31,410 261,780 283,720 1967 496,150 12,160 27,410 202,100 254,490 1966 426,830 10,970 25,620 157,350 232,890 1965 384,340 9,900 23,230 138,130 213,090 1964 361,350 9,300 21,250 129,860 200,940 1963 314,490 8,580 17,510 116,000 172,400 1962 299,150 8,480 17,410 110,410* 162,850 1961 287,120 8,680 17,080 106,240 155,130 1960 286,220 9,050 17,050 107,410 152,720 +203.8 +115.6 +199.2 +256.3 +172.6 mnz-IT-ITLTm ^T-, 'ERCENT OF 1HANGE 960-1973 INDEX OF VIOLENT CRIME, UNITED STATES, 1960-1973 RATE PER 100,000 INHABITANTS: YEAR VIOLENT CRIMES MURDER FORCIBLE RAPE ROBBERY 1973 414.3 9.3 24.3 182.4 198.4 1972 398.0 8.9 22.3 180.0 186.8 1971 393.0 8.6 20.3 187.2 176.9 1970 361.0 7.8 18.6 171.5 163.1 1969 325.4 7.3 18.3 147.4 152.5 1968 295.5 6.9 15.7 131.0 142.0 1967 250.8 6.1 13.9 102.1 128.6 1966 218.2 5.6 13.1 80.4 119.1 1965 198.3 5.1 12.0 71.3 109.9 1964 188.9 4.9 11.1 67.9 105.0 1963 166.8 4.5 9.3 61.5 91.4 1962 161.0 4.6 9.4 59.4 87.6 1961 156.9 4.7 9.3 58.1 84.8 1960 159.6 5.0 9.5 59.9 85.2 PERCENT OF CHANGE 1960-197 3 +159.6 + 86.0 +155.8 +204.5 AGGRAVATED ASSAULT +132.9 Table 3 TOTAL ARREST TRENDS, 1960-73 VIOLENT CRIMES OFFENSE TOTAL ALL AGES UNDER 18 YEARS OF AGE 18 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER CHARGED 1960 1973 PERCENT CHANGE 1960 1973 PERCENT CHANGE +35.1 466,174 1,138,046 1960 1973 PERCENT CHANGE +144.1 2,776,400 3,243,922 TOTAL 3,242,574 ALL CRIMES 4,381,968 +16.8 TOTAL 92,997 VIOLENT CRIMES 215,540 +131.8 15,180 52,592 +246.5 77,817 162,948 +109.4 4,541 10,629 +134.1 337 1,197 +255.2 4,204 9,432 +124.4 1,766 1,660 -6.0 132 216 + 63.6 1,634 1,444 -11.6 6,857 13,823 +101.6 1,185 2,753 +132.3 5,672 11,070 + 95.2 ROBBERY 31,197 83,012 +166.1 7,352 29,336 +299.0 23,845 53,676 +125.1 AGGRAVATED ASSAULT 50,402 108,076 +114.4 6,306 19,306 +206.2 44,096 88,770 +101.3 CRIMINAL HOMICIDE: a. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter b. Manslaughter by negligence FORCIBLE RAPE —) Table 4 TOTAL ARREST TRENDS, 1972-73 VIOLENT CRIMES OFFENSE CHARGED TOTAL ALL AGES 1972 1973 18 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER UNDER 18 YEARS OF AGE PERCENT 1972 CHANGE 1973 PERCENT CHANGE 1972 1973 PERCENT CHANGE TOTAL 5,950,936 ALL CRIMES 6,158,514 +3.5 1,555,288 1,630,722 +4.9 4,395,648 4,527,792 +3.0 TOTAL 255,504 VIOLENT CRIMES 277,116 +8.5 18,334 19,519 +6.5 58,182 63,698 +9.5 13,837 + 8.2 1,382 1,442 + 4.3 11,410 12,395 + 8.6 CRIMINAL HOMICIDE: a. Murder and 12,792 nonnegligent manslaughter b. Man- 2,760 slaughter by negligence 2,793 + 1.2 250 327 + 30.8 2,510 2,466 -1.8 13,210 14,755 + 11.7 + 1.0 FORCIBLE RAPE 16,412 18,387 + 12.0 3,202 ROBBERY 94,733 98,86S + 4.4 30,227 33,71 + 11.5 64,506 65,157 146,023 + 11.0 23,371 24,91 + 6.6 108,196 121,111 + 11.9 AGGRAVATED ASSAULT 131,567 3,63;: +13.4 Table 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONS CHARGED BY THE POLICE, 1973 PERCENT OF CHARGED OFFENSE TOTAL NUMBER OF PERSONS CHARGED (held for prosecution) GUILTY OFFENSE LESSER CHARGED OFFENSE ACQUITTED OR DISMISSED REFERRED JUVENILE COURT 2,141,347 58.8 4.9 17.9 3,234 39.7 19.9 29.1 11.3 885 36.2 9.3 44.7 9.8 Forcible Rape 4,657 28.5 13.0 36.3 22.2 ROBBERY 23,075 29.6 9.9 25.3 35.1 AGGRAVATED ASSAULT 38,756 33.6 13.6 35.9 16.9 18.3 CRIMINAL HOMICIDE: a. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter b. Manslaughter by negligence FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 23, 1975 Contact: Priscilla Crane (202) 634-5248 Washington Township No.l, in Hall County, Nebraska will repay $3,717.50 to the Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing, Graham W. Watt, Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing announced today. When verified adjusted tax figures replaced the estimated data used to make initial payments of shared revenues for 1972, the Office of Revenue Sharing saw that Washington Township had been paid $7,435.00 more than it was entitled to receive. The Office of Revenue Sharing requested return of the' money. When the Township failed to repay, the Department of Justice filed suit on behalf of the Office of Revenue Sharing in U.S. District Court to recover the excess. Before it received the Office of Revenue Sharing's repayment demand, Washington Township had spent the full amount of its revenue sharing payments to purchase a fire truck, and made arrangements to lease the truck to the Grand Island Suburban Fire Protection District of Hall County, Nebraska, for $1.00 per year for 20 years. The Grand Island Suburban Fire Protection District serves 11 communities in three counties and the U. S. Army Cornhusker Ammunition Plant. -more- -2- Township annual revenues for 1973 of $4,046.07 and expenditures of $3,463.53 made prospects dim for return of the full amount owed Treasury. The Township did have some securities purchased with proceeds from the sale of some property approximately six years ago. Under the circumstances, Watt said he did not feel justified in forcing the liquidation of the Township's only contingency reserve. "Considering the unique circumstances of the case and the likelihood that full prosecution of this case could cost the Federal government in excess of the proposed $3,717.50 reduction in our recovery, and considering the fact that the Township complied with revenue sharing law and regulations to spend the money it had received, I authorized the U. S. Attorney to settle for not less than 50<j: on the dollar," Watt said. The Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing distributes a portion of Federally-collected individual income tax receipts to nearly 39,000 states and local generalpurpose governments. Title I of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 which authorized the General Revenue Sharing program, provides $30.2 billion to be distributed over a five-year period, from January 1972 through December 1976. ## Department of theTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE WO4-2041 STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SENATE SUBCOMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS APRIL 29, 1975 10:00 A.M. Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee: I am pleased to be here with you today to discuss the Treasury Department's budget requests for operating appropriations during fiscal year 1976 and the three-month transition between FY 1976 and FY 1977. Let me introduce to you my associates at the table Mr. Warren F. Brecht, Assistant Secretary for Administration; Mr. David R. Macdonald, Assistant Secretary for Enforcement, Operations, and Tariff Affairs; Mr. Donald Alexander, Commissioner, Internal Revenue Service; and Mr. Gordon Hegdahl, Acting Director of my Office of Budget and Finance. With your permission, Mr. Chairman, I plan to make only a short opening statement on the overall Department of the Treasury budget, since I understand you have already conducted hearings with a majority of the bureau heads. The budget before you reflects our efforts to strike a reasonable balance between the needs of the nation's economy and the needs of our department. In keeping with the President's efforts to restrict the growth of government and minimize inflation, we have requested increases only where the workload has increased. On the other hand, we have not sought to reduce spending below levels that are essential if the department is to carry out its responsibilities relating to the financial and economic affairs of the nation. - 2Current Treasury Activity Fiscal year 1975 has been and will continue to be filled with an unusual amount of activity in the Department of the Treasury. - The Fiscal Service, especially its Bureau of the Public Debt, has been engaged in an increased level of financings. - The Internal Revenue Service is expected very shortly to compute and prepare the certification for the issuance of 80 million refund checks as part of the economic recovery effort. - The income tax refund checks must be issued and paid by the Bureau of Government Financial Operations. - The 35 million special one-time payments to recipients of certain retirement and survivor benefits will be processed by our Bureau of Government Financial Operations during early May, provided the appropriations pending in Congress have been enacted. - The U.S. Customs Service has been administering the increase in oil tariffs which is part of the President's overall energy package. These activities have been added to the ongoing workload of the Department, but we have requested supplemental funds only for the Bureau of Government Financial Operations. I expect that some of this increased level of activity will carry itself over into the first half of fiscal year 1976, but we are not yet in a position to discuss the requirements with you today. Fiscal Year 1976 Overview Our estimates as contained in the President's budget for fiscal year 1976 indicate that Treasury will require a total of $2.5 billion for operating accounts. This figure is broken down in detail in Table 1. You will note that these appropriations represent an increase of $163.9 million and 2,442 related average positions over 1975 levels. Of this amount, $36.2 million and 1,763 average positions are needed to handle additional workload which is generated outside the Department and totally uncontrollable by us. For example - The Department will process over 126 million tax returns in fiscal year 1976, an increase of over 2 million from the previous year. - We expect an increase of 9 percent in delinquent tax accounts processed and secured. - We estimate that 38.3 million taxpayers will come to us for assistance, an increase of 6 percent over 1975. - We anticipate that 278 million persons will be arriving at U.S. borders - 4 percent more than in 1975 - and we will be processing over 17 million formal and informal Customs entries. - Almost 14 billion coins will be manufactured, 1.8 billion more than in 1975. - Over 146 million savings bonds will be issued and 137 million retired. - And the Department will issue more than 670 million checks and will pay more than 793 million checks. This represents an increase of 5 percent in the number of checks issued and a 4 percent increase in checks paid. The only program expansion -- that is, an increase in the quality of our programs -- contained in our estimates involves $13.9 million and 55 average positions. This very modest program increase is made up of many small but necessary items scattered throughout the Department. Treasury is requesting $55.4 million and 624 average positions just to carry on our present activities, which represents mainly the impact of inflation and full year costs of some positions added in FY 1975. The transition budget covers our operating accounts for the period July 1, 1976 through September 30, 1976, and amounts to $624.9 million. This figure involves no program expansion. Rather, it represents the amount required to continue the fiscal year 1976 program at its previous level for three additional months, to the beginning of the new Federal fiscal year. In addition, the amount of $58.4 million is requested for construction projects which I will discuss in a moment. In the meantime, I would to show the relationship requirements, as well as derivation of Treasury's like to insert Table 2 into the record between our average position and dollar Table 3, which provides the detailed "Proposed Authorized Level for 1975." - 4 Construction of Treasury Facilities Our fiscal year 1976 budget estimates include $58.4 million for the construction of certain Treasury facilities. Of these, the major item is $40.6 million for the construction of a new Denver Mint to meet the nation's growing coinage requirements. Only eight years ago the nation's coinage requirements were less than half of what they are today. When completed and added to existing facilities, the new Mint will provide sufficient capacity to meet our coinage requirements for many years to come. We have requested $14.3 million to complete the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center. This center was originally scheduled to be built in Beltsville, Maryland, but because of problems that arose in connection with that site, we have been seeking another location. At the request of the Senate Public Works Committee, the Department of the Treasury and the General Services Administration reviewed available military bases as possible alternatives. We are pleased to inform the committee that we have found a former naval air station in Brunswick, Georgia, that would meet our requirements if all concerned give their approval. The base in question is a former Navy training school which offers excellent facilities of recent vintage. If some of the funds previously appropriated for the Beltsville site can be used to adapt the Georgia site to our purposes, it is unlikely that we would require the additional $14.3 million included in the President's 1976 budget for construction purposes. We will work closely with the committee to keep you fully informed of our progress on this project. Because of the need for professionalism in Federal law enforcement has never been greater, we hope to make this new center fully operational as soon as practicable. Finally, we have included $3.4 million for repairs and improvements to the Main Treasury Building. Although it is a very fine old building with many historic traditions, considerable amounts of money and time are required to keep it in useful condition. The monies we are requesting for this purpose will assure that the building will be serviceable and ready for visitors during the Maintenance of Current celebration. Operating Levels nation's Bicentennial Most of the S55.4 million and 624 average positions that we are requesting for the maintenance of activity at current levels is needed to cover the full-year cost of pay increases approved earlier. One item amounting to $32.3 million results from the pay increase for classified employees in October of 1974 and the additional pay of blue collar workers required by Wage Board action. The 624 average positions are entirely attributable to the annualization of positions granted by the Congress during fiscal year 1975 but not filled for a whole year. The cost of these positions has been partially offset by savings. The other items included in the $55.4 million figure relate to higher travel, )V1 - 5 printing and communication costs, grade-to-grade promotions, higher health benefit premiums, and one additional workday. Summary As you can see, Mr. Chairman, except for the construction costs, the Department of the Treasury is asking for only minimal program increases. We are attempting to hold the line on government employment to an extent commensurate with increased workload requirements. I might add with regard to the fiscal year 1975 rescission, we are formulating our plans on the best use of the $22.5 million. The justifications before you agree with the President's budget and still take into account all of the rescissions; however, they do not take into account the program supplemental for the Bureau of Government Financial Operations. I shall, of course, welcome the opportunity to answer any questions you may have. Thank you. oOo Table 1 -" 6 - THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Annual Appropriations for Treasury Department for 1975 "and Estimated Requirements for 1976 (In Millions of Dollars) 1975 Proposed Authorized Level 1/ 1976 Budget Estimates Increase over 1975 Regular Operating Appropriations: Office of the Secretary: Salaries and Expenses Office of Revenue Sharing 26.2 28.1 2.7 1.9 2.7 Federal Law Enforcement Training Center: Salaries and Expenses Construction 3.1 18.9 3.2 14.3 .1 -4.6 Economic Stabilization Activity 2.0 Bureau of Government Financial Operations: Salaries and Expenses Government Losses in Shipment Eisenhower College Grants Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms 113.8 .6 9.0 120.1 .7 1.0 6.3 .1 -8.0 94.4 101.3 6.9 U. S. Customs Service 289.5 304.9 15.4 -2.0 x Bureau of the Mint: Salaries and Expenses Construction of Mint Facilities 34.6 41.4 40.6 6.8 40.6 Bureau of the Public Debt ,- 97.2 98.6 1.4 42.2 45.3 3.1 725.6 803.5 772.9 837.6 1,655.8 47.3 34.1 84.5 Internal Revenue Service: Salaries and Expenses Accounts, Collection and Taxpayer Service Compliance Total, IRS Federal Tax Lien Revolving Fund 1,571.3 .5 — -.5 82.9 95.3 12.4 TOTAL, Regular Operating Appropriations $2,344.1 $2,508.0 163.9 U. S. Secret Service NOTE: Amounts are rounded and do not add to total. 1/ Includes pay increases authorized by Executive Order 11811, effective October 1, 1974, and program supplemental for the Bureau of the Public Debt and the Internal Revenue Service, 750066 March 3, 1975 Table 2 - 7 THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Comparative Statement of Average Positions Fiscal Years 1975 and 1976 (Direct Appropriations Only) 1975 Authorized Level \ 1976 Estimate 6 Increase over 1975 Regular Annual Operating Appropriations: Office of the Secretary: Salaries and Expenses Office of Revenue Sharing 51 819 100 -32 100 Federal Law Enforcement Training Center 89 91 2 Economic Stabilization Activities 55 _. -55 Bureau of Government Financial Operations 2,515 2,518 3 Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms 3,825 3,938 113 12,74-8 12,812 61+ Bureau of the Mint 1,758 1,934- 176 Bureau of the Public Debt 2,538 2,i+99 -39 l,83i+ 1,896 62 1+2,613 38 ,050 82,4-97 i+i+,051 38 ,488 8i+,1+35 1,1+38 1+38 1,938 2,99i+ 3,166 172 109,870 112,312 U. S. Customs Service Internal Revenue Service: Salaries and Expenses Accounts, Collection and Taxpayer Service Compliance Total, IRS U. S. Secret Service TOTAL, Regular Annual Operating Appropriations 750068 March 3, 1975 2 ,i+i+2 Table 3 THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Derivation of "Proposed Authorized Level for 1975" (in thousands of dollars) 1975 Appropriation $2,286,165 Supplemental Appropriation (Eisenhower College) 9,000 Proposed Supplementals: Pay Increase: a. Classified b. Wage Board c. Executive Protective Service 1. 2. $54-,821+ 2,522 1,930 59,276 Program: a. Public Debt - Provides for increased reimbursement to the Federal Reserve Banks (i+^i+oo) , increased reimbursement to paying agents for redemption of savings type securities (500) , reimbursement to U. S. Postal Service for increased mailings of securities (727), and increased volume and costs of printing security stock (1,37 3) . 7,000 b. Internal Revenue Service - Provides for increased costs stemming from the recently enacted Employee Retirement Security Act of 1971+ (Public Law 93-1+06) . 6,61+9 . Rescission of Budget Authority (H. Doc. 93-398) -24-,000 Proposed Authorized Level for 1975 2,31+4-,060 750069 March 3, 1975 13,61+9 ;T OF DepartmentoftheTREASURY TELEPHONE W04-2041 WASHINGTON. D.C. 20220 /789 April 28, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.7 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.7 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on May 1, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: 26-week bills RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills maturing October 30, 197 5 COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing July 31, 1975 Discount Investm stmesit Discount Investment Rate Rate Price ate 1/ Rate 1/ Price Rate 98.570 a/ 5.657% 5.83% High 98.550 5.736% 5.92% Low 98.555 5.716% 5.90% Average a/ Excepting 1 tender of $600,000 b/ Excepting 2 tenders totaling $30,000 96.900 b/6.132% 6.175% 96.878 6.158% 96.887 6.43%J 6.48% 6.46% Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 29%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 41%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 72,475,000 Boston $ New York 3 ,528,975,000 28,240,000 Philadelphia 53,985,000 Cleveland 26,475,000 Richmond 38,.040,000 Atlanta 313,625,000 Chicago 40,065,000 St. Louis 15,280,000 Minneapolis 41,230,000 Kansas City 33,010,000 Dallas San Francisca. 231,175,000 TOTALS^ 4 ' 422 ' 575 ' 000 Accepted $ 29,625,000 2,255,720,000 27,630,000 38,985,000 20,225,000 37,220,000 112,815,000 30,010,000 10,930,000 33,385,000 20,300,000 83,615,000 Received Accepted $ 29,770,000 4,399,590,000 58,495,000 149,900,000 12,865,000 35,830,000 311,235,000 26,445,000 37,710,000 21,710,000 14,975,000 379,390,000 $ 7,535,000 2,514,910,000 8,495,000 20,380,000 10,065,000 12,640,000 34,310,000 10,145,000 3,710,000 15,610,000 7,175,000 55,165,000 $2,700,460,000 c/$5,477,915,000 $2,700,140,000 d/ c/Includes $369,390,000 nonc0inpetitive tenders from the public. d/Includes $151,835,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. %v Contact: L.F. Potts EXT. 2951 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 28, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES TENTATIVE NEGATIVE DETERMINATION IN ANTIDUMPING INVESTIGATION ON VINYL CLAD FENCE FABRIC FROM CANADA Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today a tentative negative determination in the investigation of vinyl clad fence fabric from Canada under the Antidumping Act, 1921, as amended. The fence fabric in question is galvanized steel wire coated with polyvinyl chloride and woven to provide an open mesh of rectangular or diamond-shaped apertures. Its chief use is as the body of chain link fence on residential or commercial properties. It is generally sold in rolls which are fifty feet long and of varying widths. Comparisons between purchase price and home market price revealed that purchase price was equal to or greater than the home market price of such or similar merchandise. Imports of all fence fabric, including vinyl clad fence fabric, from Canada during CY 1974 amounted to approximately 16.6 million pounds valued at approximately $6.6 million. # # # DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE WO4-2041 April 24, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for 364-day Treasury bills to be dated May 6, 1975, and to mature May 4, 1976 (CUSIP No. 912793 YJ9). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing May 6, 1975. Tenders in the amount of $1,400 million, or thereabouts, will be accepted from the public, which holds $796 million of the maturing bills. Additional amounts of the bills may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, which hold $1,006 million of the maturing bills. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Wednesday, April 30, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. in multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. (OVER) Tenders will be received without -2deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on May 6, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing May 6» 1975 - Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treatment. Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. Department of theTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR RELEASE A.M. THURSDAY, APRIL 24, 1975 Hi E STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE EIGHTH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MANILA, APRIL 24, 1975 On behalf of the United States delegation, I want to express to all of you our pleasure at attending this Eighth Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank. I also want to extend to you the warmest personal greetings of one of the strongest friends of this organization, the President of the United States. In the eight months since he has taken office, President Ford has already made one visit to the Asian area. He is also meeting with a number of Asian leaders this calendar year. His trip and these meetings constitute a visible symbol of the United States'continuing commitment to this part of the world. Role of the United States in Asia Because of recent events in Indochina, I would like to open my remarks this afternoon by talking briefly about the United States in Asia, for it is important that all of us keep that role in perspective. The history of American friendship and mutual cooperation with the nations of this region extends back for more than a century. We have sacrified many of our finest young men fighting in Asia to preserve human freedoms. We have supported the efforts of many people here to gain their independence and to become viable nation-states. And we have given generously of our financial resources, contributing more economic and humanitarian assistance to regional ADB members since World War II than the rest of the world combined. Since the last World War, U.S. bilateral concessional assistance to regional members of the ADB has totaled $35.3billion. Moreover, we have provided a significant share of the resources of the multilateral institutions, not only the ADB to which we have contributed $342.6-million in concessional funds and share subscriptions, but also to the World Bank and IDA, to which our contributions have totaled $10.3-billion. WS-285 2 As some of the countries of this region have proposed, less concessional lending has become more appropriate. The U.S. Export-Import Bank has loaned $7.8-billion to the regional members of the ADB, of which $1.9-billion has been lent in the past three years. I might also note that two-thirds of all allocation of our Public Law 480 program is being targeted on ADB regional members in the current fiscal year. Against this background, the developments in Indochina are a source of deep concern for my government, as I am sure they are for all Asian Governments. The fall of the Cambodian Government less than two weeks ago, and the tragic scenes we are witnessing in Vietnam, seem to contradict the hopeful evolution which has taken place elsewhere in the region in the last several years — an evolution toward cooperation and away from confrontation, toward peace and away from war. I have no doubt that many governments of Asia are concerned that Indochina, and our reactions to events there, may portend a basic change in the United States' role in Asia. There have been public expressions of that concern already — suggestions that the United States can no longer be relied upon by its friends. I can certainly understand those fears, but in view of the long history of our friendship in this region and our resolve for the future, I am confident that such fears are unwarranted. President Ford spoke directly to these questions in a major foreign policy address to our Congress earlier this month. He urged that foreign governments not be misled, for our will remains strong and our purposes clear. In the President's words "We will stand by our friends. "We will honor our commitments. "We will uphold our country's principles." Nowhere are those views more relevant than in Asia. We have basic commitments in this region, both bilateral and multilatera We regard those commitments as important to our own interests and to the interests of the nations with which we are associated and we will uphold them. There will be no change in the fundamental direction of American policy toward Asia — and there will be no American "withdrawal" from this vast region. Our friends need not fear, and our adversaries should beware of adopting policies which are predicated on a miscalculation of our firmness of purpose. \y The United States will continue to seek better relationships with the major Communist powers — as we believe this benefits all nations — but at the same time we will continue to place highest value on our relations with our friends of long-standing in Asia and around the world. We will continue to work cooperatively with our friends in maintaining and strengthening the security of Asia, and we will join our efforts to theirs in building prosperity in the region. For the United States, there can be no alternative in a world that is increasingly interdependent. The United States, as a nation of the Pacific as well as the Atlantic, must and will remain actively involved in the problems and the The International Economy development of Asia. Just as the United States is learning to live in an interdependent environment, so too the nations of Asia find that their economic destinies are increasingly linked to those of the global community. The challenges posed in the areas of food and fuel are but the most dramatic examples of an interdependent world. Before focusing, then, on the Asian Development Bank, let me spend a few moments reviewing the state of the international economy. At last year's meeting of the Bank, inflation was plaguing much of the world. That inflation grew partly out of the simultaneous boom conditions of 1972 and 19 73 in the major countries and partly from long-standing government policies in many countries, including my own, that served to fuel inflationary pressures. The steep increase in international food and oil prices, of course, severely aggravated that inflationary trend. Since last year's meeting, most of our countries have moved temporarily into a generalized condition of minimum or negative growth and substantial unemployment. Inflation, while diminishing, also continues to be the most fundamental long-term economic problem facing many nations. With the acute strains of current economic conditions, there is a natural tendency for nations to turn inward and to seek economic solutions at the expense of their trading partners. Although the solutions must begin at home, we can all do a better job at solving our problems through international cooperation. Mutual prosperity depends on mutual cooperation more heavily now than ever before. Clearly, the central challenges of international economic policy today are: — First, to restore economic growth and price stability around the world. 4 — Second, to adapt to the energy shock in ways that will provide more secure sources of energy and will support a pattern of orderly growth; and — Third, to adjust our financial policies to accommodate massive shifts in international flows of funds. The role of international development banks must be seen in the context of these challenges. But these institutions should not be diverted from their fundamental purpose of promoting long-term economic growth. They should not try to solve short-term balance-of-payment problems for which other institutions exist and for which other vehicles are being developed. In 1974, many of the developed countries which have traditionally transferred resources and capital to the developing world were themselves unable to cover their imports of goods and services with export earnings and had to borrow on an unprecedented scale. Yet these countries, including my own, held steady in continuing their aid for developing countries. For most donor countries, this is a new situation in which they must, in effect, borrow in order to provide assistance. In most cases, the interest and terms of such borrowing are far harder than the terms of the aid they are giving. The non-oil developing countries were also forced to increase their borrowings substantially, thereby adding to an already heavy debt burden. For all oil-importing nations, there were also fears that the international financial system might collapse from the disruptions of traditional payment patterns and fears that some countries might even be forced into bankruptcy. Neither of these fears has materialized. Despite some strains, the financial system remains sufficiently flexible and open to adapt successfully to the changed patterns of international capital flows. We have worked together in both the public and private sectors to establish new financial techniques and mechanisms where there has been concern that supplemental arrangements were needed. Countries were also able to avoid potential bankruptcies by adjusting their domestic policies and by obtaining a certain amount of assistance from other nations. In both instances, the success of the oil-importing nations in averting possible disasters was due in no small measure to the willingness of governments to cooperate. \y Cooperation among nations has helped us to make a good beginning in coping with many new challenges facing the developing nations. In particular, establishment of the development committee associated with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank gives us a better institutional framework for addressing the problems of the developing countries. The new committee is giving priority attention to the needs of the countries most seriously affected by a decline in their terms of trade. Among the specific items in the committee's current work program are: a U.S. proposal for a special trust fund to channel funds on a highly concessional basis to the developing countries most in need; a study of ways to enable developing countries to make greater use of markets; and a follow-up to the conclusions reached in the World Food Conference on the financing of food, fertilizer and food production. The United States plans to take an active part in the forthcoming meeting in June of the Development Committee. We are keenly aware of the plight in which many of the poorest countries find themselves today, and through the Development Committee we are determined to see that the international community takes appropriate action. Already a substantial volume of funds has been made available from the International Monetary Fund's regular resources to many countries with balance of payments difficulties — developed and developing countries alike. Moreover, about 2.5-billion SDRs have been loaned from the IMF special oil facility established last year. It has been agreed that the IMF's oil facility will be continued in 19 75. Looking beyond 19 75, IMF members have agreed in principle to seek an increase in IMF quotas which will place the fund in a position to make substantial resources available to countries in need. The United States has agreed to such an increase, provided that agreement can be reached on a series of important amendments to the IMF articles of agreement. It is our hope that agreement on this comprehensive package of quotas and amendments can be completed by the IMF's Interim Committee in June. The United States is prepared to work with other IMF members to develop arrangements under which members' access to IMF resources could be expanded and to facilitate greater usability of the Fund's currency holdings. 6 A major step has also just been taken to provide the international payments system with an additional measure of insurance. Together with the other OECD countries, I was pleased to have signed, two weeks ago, an agreement on a new facility to be called the Support Fund, that supplements IMF and other sources of financing. This agreement establishes a $25 billion safety net to be available to participating countries as a supplement to, but not a substitute for, established international institutions. The U.S. continues to view the IMF as the principal source of multilateral assistance for those members facing temporary balance of payments difficulties. It is our hope that this safety net will never be used, but the confidence it gives should make major contribution to the effective functioning of the international financial system. By so doing, it will help to avoid a situation in which individual countries, anxious to gain greater protection, would be tempted to take restrictive measures which would in the end be detrimental to all. Turning to trade matters, let me reemphasize that in adapting international trade policies to the new situation, we must discourage nations from turning inwards and seeking unilateral solutions to their problems. Toward that end, the United States has recently enacted legislation, the Trade Act of 1974, which will help us to work constructively and positively toward an increasingly open world trading system. Let me reassure you that we are firm in our resolve to implement the Tokyo Declaration with its special consideration for the needs of the developing countries. A specific mandate in our Trade Act gives special consideration to developing country interest. The forthcoming Geneva negotiations will necessarily be long, but we are working to resolve the full range of outstanding problems in international trade. In short, while the challenges of the international economy have grown substantially in size and complexity, we are well advanced in formulating an international response that will be equal to them. The most important task now before us is to continue our efforts to meet these challenges through improved international cooperation. - 7TRONGER U.S. SUPPORT FOR THE BANK I? It is within this context that the United States views the eed for international cooperation to accelerate basic economic evelopment. We recognize that the Asian Development Bank is a critics lultilateral institution for furthering such development in this regior Within the last several months, the Congress in our country Las signaled our own support for the Bank by taking two importact ictions: --Last December, $362 million was authorized as the United States share in the Bank's replenishment of ordinary capital, and --Last month, an appropriation was made of the second $50 lillion for the Asian Development Fund and the paid-in portion >f our first installment to the replenishment of ordinary capital. Yesterday, on behalf of my government, I transferred this second $50 million contribution to the Asian Development Fund and irranged to subscribe to a further $121 million of ordinary share :apital. We have been particularly pleased with the performance of the 5ank during the past year under the fine leadership of President inoue. Let me highlight just a few of the trends we find most iavorable: --The Bank has recognized the importance of increasing food >roduction by expanding its own support of agriculture. Last year !5 percent of all loan projects were in the agricultural sector. 'he Bank has also increased its lending activities for fertilizer )lants and feeder roads. --By setting up the Asian Development Fund in 1974, the Bank las established an integrated source of concessional resources for :ountries with low per capita income whose balance of payments out.ook is not sufficiently strong to rely solely on ordinary capital .oans. The Bank has also properly decided to reserve the use of :oncessional funds to the poorest of its member countries. --In addition, the Bank followed a responsible course in 1974 •y raising its interest rate to 8-3/4 percent on ordinary capital oans and by adopting a split rate under which it charges 9% percent r or loans to high income countries. This is a step in the right iirection toward "graduating" borrowing countries that can obtain sxternal financing quite readily in the private capital market. - 8--The Bank's net income for 1974 has increased substantially o $26.4 million. In my view, the Bank ought to transfer some of ts net income to the Asian Development Fund, beginning next year. --I might also note that the Bank has borrowed in the U.S. tarket for the first time since 1971. I welcome this entry into iur market. At the same time, I hope that the Bank will avoid •orrowing in currencies which are not internationally traded and are ;hus potentially subject to large and arbitrary changes in value. n stepping up its borrowing, the Bank should also be mindful ot :he dangers of increasing liquidity beyond its needs. --Finally, let us recognize that the Bank has also made progress m administrative reorganization, including the establishment of an independent evaluation group. This sets the stage for further lm)rovement in implementation of loans. In considering the progress made by the Bank, it is wise to remember that the amount of new loans is not itself the measure of the Bank's contribution to sustained economic development in its nember countries. The key measure of the Bank's role is how much levelopment actually takes place, and this depends on the quality Df bank-supported projects and on the Bank's contribution to the process of building institutions, training personnel, and setting reasonable priorities within member countries. Looking ahead to the coming year, we see the Bank planning to expand its lending program, increase the volume of-resources In the Asian Development Fund and, later, to increase the Bank's capital base. Concerning the Asian Development Fund, my own government still las $50 million to be appropriated by our Congress before we can contemplate seeking authorization for additional resources. As we address the question of additional funding within the United States, [ strongly urge that, apart from seeking new resources from member countries, the Bank also make every effort to obtain participation and special contributions from non-member countries that have especially strong external positions. As for ordinary capital, the Bank recently has been able to Dbtain some special increases in capital from Indonesia and Malaysia, and I understand that within the next year it will obtain a special increase from the Federal Republic of Germany. It would be highly desirable if member countries in a position to do so would make available similar special increases to the Bank's ordinary capital. Given the Bank's tight resource position, it will also be important to make every effort, to fund new projects in cooperation with private investors and banks in the form of parallel and joint financing. By ictively seeking this type of arrangement, the Bank could, with a jiven amount of its resources, contribute more widely to the development of its member countries. 1^ The private sector is important to the Bank, not only as a lender but also as a recipient of bank loans. In fact, since irivate sector free from government controls is the most certain [erpinning for economic development, the Bank should seek to increase i share of its lending to productive enterprises outside the public iere. With the very rapid growth in lending over the last few years, would be prudent in the period immediately ahead to concentrate improving the quality of new loans and on continuing to seek more "ective implementation of loans underway. To further this effort, j Bank must work toward a system of more intensive project supervision, the Bank becomes stronger it should also become more active in i difficult sectors where innovative lending is needed--such as rural development and small town water supply projects which reach /er income groups. We hope the Bank will also continue to strengthen its cost :imating procedures for projects in order to avoid the cost jrruns that have become a major problem for the institution. I rongly believe that cost overruns should normally be financed )m other sources, leaving funds of the Bank available for new )jects. Assuming the projects financed by the Bank are among the *hest priority undertaking for the borrowing country, alternative lancing can be found. While increased production and productivity should remain the Lef objective in agricultural loans, we believe the' Bank should >o place special emphasis on projects which ensure that benefits LI be widely shared among the rural population of its member countries. With regard to post-project evaluation, I congratulate the Bank its adoption of an independent audit mechanism. This year the ik should move ahead rapidly to schedule the evaluation of projects ler this new independent arrangement. ELUSION Gentlemen, if I may, I would like to conclude my remarks with )rief personal note. This visit to Manila, where the Philippines government has been :h a gracious host, brings me near the end of an extended trip )und the world. In Paris, I signed the agreement establishing s $25 billion support fund that I mentioned earlier. In Moscow, Led an American delegation that discussed means of increasing ide with the Soviet Union. I also met there with General Secretary jzhnev, where we exchanged assurances that each of our countries lained firmly committed to a policy of detente. During the seven days that followed I had the privilege of ;iting two Asian countries, India and Sri Lanka. In New Delhi, let with Prime Minister Gandhi and in Colombo, with Prime Minister - 10 of increasing mutual cooperation between our countries. Throughout this journey, I have been struck by one central fact: the nations of the world today share the same aspirations. All of us yearn for peace and economic progress. All of us want to overcome the uncertainties and complexities of today's environment. And all of us want our children to grow up in a world that is secure from hunger and war. Across the globe, there is talk today of crisis--the crisis of hunger, the crisis of the international economy, the crisis of Indochina, and so on. The list is long and imposing. But in each country that I visited, there is also a recognition that in every crisis, there is also opportunity. We have within our grasp today the opportunity to build an international community in which the blessings of economic and social progress can be extended to every child. Certainly, we have our problems. We will always have them in the international community. But let us not allow our problems to become insurmountable barriers or to obscure the interests that we share together. Let us instead meet these problems head-on by recognizing our common bonds and working together to find solutions. The United States is eager to participate in this process. As we prepare to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the signing of the charter for the Asian Development Bank, I pledge to you that the United States shall remain a steadfast friend in the search for peace and economic progress. Thank you. 0O0 1 Department of theJREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 f FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ft Contact: Peter 0. Suchman 964-5538 April 24, 1975 DETERMINATION IN COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATION OF EC DAIRY PRODUCTS Acting Secretary of the Treasury Gardner today announced that a final determination has been made in the countervailing duty investigation of Dairy Products exported from the European Community. Notice of Receipt of Petition in this case was published in the Federal Register on January 15, 1975, and a Preliminary Determination that bounties or grants exist was published on February 14. Acting Secretary Gardner said that as a result of extensive discussions between representatives of the Commission of the European Community and the U. S. Government the EC has taken a number of significant actions to modify the EC system of restitution payments as it applies to dairy exports to the U. S., including the suspension of restitutions on cheeses for further processing. These actions have in large part met the concerns of representatives of the domestic U. S. dairy industry and the U. S. Government that the EC restitution system was creating a situation of unfair competition for domestic producers. It has therefore been determined that although the EC restitution system, as it applies to dairy products exported to the U- S., does constitute a bounty or grant within the meaning of the U. S. Countervailing Duty Law, the criteria of Section 331 of the Trade Act of 1974, providing for the waiver of imposition of countervailing duties in certain circumstances have been met. This determination follows after consultation between the Treasury Department and representatives of the domestic producers, other concerned agencies of the Executive Branch, as well as interested members of Congress. Countervailing duties will not be imposed on those EC cheeses still benefitting from restitution payments during the period of applicability of the waiver provision, and so long as the statutory criteria continue to be met. Section 331 of the Trade Act provides that the Secretary of the Treasury may, for four years following enactment of the Act, waive countervailing duties on an import if he determines that adequate steps have been taken to reduce substan(Over) or tially or eliminate the adverse impact of any bounty -2grant; that there is a reasonable prospect for successful multilateral trade negotiations; and that imposition of the waived duties would be likely to seriously jeopardize those negotiations. The waiver must be revoked if the basis supporting the determination ceases to exist, and the waiver is subject to an override by either house of Congress. It should be noted that the waiver applies only to certain high quality specialty and table cheeses and not to those products, more generally used for processing, which directly compete with domestically produced cheese. EC restitutions on the latter have been removed, therefore, no additional duties would be appropriate on those products so long as no restitution payments are being made. Acting Secretary Gardner pointed out that this decision will afford domestic producers protection from subsidized competition while not unnecessarily raising the prices to consumers of non-competitive cheese imports. * * * Department of theJREASURY OFFICE OF REVENUE SHARING WASHINGTON, D.C. 20226 "ELEPHONE 634-5248 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tuesday, April 29, 1975 Contact: Priscilla R. Crane (202) 634-5248 The U. S. Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing and the U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) formally agreed today to work together to resolve complaints of discrimination involving States, local governments, their contractors and secondary recipients spending General Revenue Sharing funds. A Memorandum of Agreement was signed this afternoon in a plenary session of HUD's "Conference on Fair Housing and Funding" at the Ramada Inn in Rosslyn, Virginia by Graham W. Watt, Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing and Gloria E.A. Toote, Assistant Secretary of HUD for Equal Opportunity. The Agreement provides that when the Office of Revenue Sharing receives a complaint alleging discrimination in a program where HUD has civil rights compliance responsibility, (in the activities of housing and urban renewal authorities or programs involving community development block grants, for example) the matter will be referred to HUD for investigation. -more- -2- Where HUD independently investigates a complaint of discrimination and finds that General Revenue Sharing funds are involved, the Department will notify the Office of Revenue Sharing. The Office of Revenue Sharing then will notify the recipient government involved, using procedures established in revenue sharing regulations. The Office of Revenue Sharing and HUD will keep each other fully informed on matters of common concern. Nothing in the agreement diminishes in any way the responsibility of the Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing to make his own determination of discrimination in the use of General Revenue Sharing funds, based on whatever facts and evidence are available to him. Title I of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act ot 1972, which established the General Revenue Sharing program, provides that "No person in the United States shall on the grounds of race, color, national origin or sex be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity funded in whole or in part with ... (general revenue sharing funds)." To assist in monitoring compliance with the civil rights and other provisions of revenue sharing law, the Office of Revenue Sharing has developed an innovative system which enlist the assistance of other Federal and State agencies whose responsibilities relate to revenue sharing compliance activities. The Office of Revenue Sharing draws on resources and expertise already in place; rather than to duplicate what already exists. Cooperative working agreements have been concluded with the U. S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, State audit agencies in nearly all States, and with the Maryland Commission on Human Relations. The arrangement with Maryland's civil rights agency, concluded yesterday, is the first of a series of comparable agreements to be negotiated with State civil rights agencies throughout the country. Revenue sharing law authorizes the distribution of $30.2 billion to nearly 39,000 states, counties, cities, towns, townships, Indian tribes and Alaskan native villages over a five year period that ends with December 1976. Already, some $18.9 billion has been distributed. The next quarterly payment of shared revenues will be made in July 1975. -30- DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON. D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY 1v DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY STATEMENT OF THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY STEPHEN S. GARDNER BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC STABILIZATION OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, CURRENCY AND HOUSING APRIL 29, 1975 Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: I am pleased to appear before you in support ofH.R. 6078, a bill to establish a National Center for Productivity. The Department of the Treasury is vitally interested in improving the U. S. economy. The Secretary of the Treasury is Chairman of the Economic Policy Board which oversees the work of the current National Commission on Productivity and Work Quality. The Nation's future economic performance will be directly affected by productivity gains. Productivity is a matter of fundamental importance to the U. S. economy. Improved productivity is the only basic source for a rising national standard of living.. It would provide major anti-inflation benefits. Our international competitive position depends upon maintaining positive longterm trends in productivity. The preservation of the environment and the efficient allocation of valuable human and material resources is directly affected. In fact, the entire industrial relations environment, including the quality of work, will depend upon the success of programs to stimulate national productivity. The remarkable progress.of the U. S. economy has resulted from the productivity of a highly trained and educated labor force, effective managerial leadership, extensive capital investment and the application of new technology. It is, therefore, disturbing to note that the rate of productivity growth in the United States has declined in recent years and that for over a decade U. S. productivity improvement has ranked well below the results reported in most other industrial nations. It is no coincidence that the Nation's level of capital investment has also been relatively low. Part of the unfavorable comparisons may reflect cyclical conditions and the large size of our mature economy which inWS-286 creasingly emphasizes services and immediate consumption. -2But merely recognizing the problem is an inadequate reaction. Programs to stimulate productivity are badly needed. Therefore, we commend the Committee for focusing national attention on this crucial economic challenge. Role of the Private and Public Sectors The private sector of the U. S. economy has historically been responsible for most of our gains in productivity. Profit opportunities have motivated companies to invest additional capital and to press for efficient production and distribution procedures. Rising "real" earnings have provided strong incentives for workers, who continuously have moved into more productive jobs and occupations. American families have emphasized increased educational opportunities for their children to prepare them for these better job opportunities. The rising standard of living resulting from this combination of circumstances has been a key factor in the economic success of America. Since the actions of labor and management will continue to largely determine productivity results, public and private sector efforts should be coordinated. A major goal of any governmental program should be to gain the support of labor and management for cooperative efforts. But there is also an important role for government programs: 1. The productivity of the entire economy could be significantly improved by removing regulatory, legislative and administrative barriers to improving efficiency. There are hundreds of specific governmental actions which unnecessarily waste our valuable resources. 2. Government leadership can focus attention on long-term goals and support experimental and demonstration projects which in this burgeoning technological age are too novel for private investment or even beyond the capabilities of the private sector. 3. The government can increase the visibility of productivity programs and coordinate efforts throughout the private and public sectors. 4. The government can coordinate the efforts of diverse educational and research institutions and the activities of numerous State and local programs. \y -35. The government can develop comprehensive statistical information and operate capital grant and technical assistance programs. For all of these reasons, the Administration supported the creation of the National Commission on Productivity (NCOP) in 1970. The performance of that Commission during the first three years of its existence was restricted by funding and organizational limitations and chronic uncertainties about its future. As a result, it has been difficult to develop a sustained work program. Nevertheless, several important research and demonstration projects are under way or have been completed. A summary of current activities of the National Commission on Productiviey and Work Quality is attached for the record. Summary We commend the Committee for its efforts to focus attention on the vital subject of productivity. We believe the proposed National Center for Productivity can serve as a catalyst in coordinating labor, management and governmental efforts to stimulate productivity growth. While there •. are numerous government agencies and programs that are concerned about productivity problems, there is a need to coordinate all of these efforts, the success of which will directly effect the future of the U. S. economy. We urge prompt legislative action on H.R 6078 so that the kinds of delays and uncertainties that too often existed in the past can be avoided. o 0 o SUMMARY* OF FY 1975 ACTIVITIES OF THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON PRODUCTIVITY AND WORK QUALITY Accomplishment for the National Commission on Productivity and Work Quality is measured by its ability to cause elements of an industry, economic sector or public service to engage themselves in an effective effort to improve their own performance. Given that catalytic role, it is important to realize two things: 1) individual successes are the result of many participants and credit belongs to all; and 2) individual successes represent milestones in a more important continuing effort towards improvement. During FY 1975 the Commission itself was successfully reorganized to allow for the effective participation of its membership in its purpose. An executive committee and functional area work groups of Commission members have worked both on directing the efforts of the staff and initiating activities on their own. The work of the Commission toward improving productivity is divided into four different categories: 1. Quality of Work - labor/management committees and behavioral science applications to the work place; 2. Public Sector - including Federal, State and local governments; 3. Private Sector - food distribution, health care, construction and transportation industries; and 4. Education. *Note - A more detailed description indicating the background and context in which projects were selected may be found in Part II of the Commission's 4th Annual Report. - 2 QUALITY OF WORK In response to its Congressional mandate, the NCOP and WQ is developing material of practical help in the establishment of labor/management committees. A booklet "Labor-Management Productivity Committees in American Industry" is being printed and material is now being edited that will result in case studies of 8-10 public sector committees. On the plant/community level the NCOP and WQ has held five conferences in Illinois, Wisconsin and New York (with FMCS), with plant-level technical assistance follow-up by State Institutes of Labor Relations. At least a half-dozen sites will be setting up committees aided by the knowledge these conferences provided. Additionally, the results of these meetings are being consolidated into a publication "Pointers for Labor-Management Committees" which should go a long way in overcoming obstacles to the formation of these committees throughout the Nation. In the behavioral science field the Commission is evaluating the impact of two types of increasingly popular programs on productivity for use by managers and labor leaders. A participatory incentive plan in a large corporation (DeSoto Paint Corporation). Flexible working hours in a service industry (First National Bank of Boston). Work (in cooperation with DOL) is being done to produce guides for the appropriate application of behavioral science techniques and a report will be issued on management actions taken in response to attitude surveys of 7,500 workers in five Federal agencies (with CSC). - 3 PUBLIC SECTOR In the public sector the NCOP and WQ has supported and encouraged the efforts of the OMB, CSC, and GAO to measure and enhance Federal Government productivity and is also active in a variety of projects designed for productivity improvement in state and local governments. For Elected Officials - a guide entitled "So, Mr. Mayor, You Want to Improve Productivity" has been published and was the basis for a series of meetings with top elected officials throughout the country. Similar publications for city and county elected officials are in process, as well as a booklet on productivity improvement in state government for legislators. For management - a program to launch 20 cities into productivity improvement programs with development of follow-up guidance during the initial months of effort. A series of five Productivity Workshops were held for state and local officials to facilitate the transfer of improved methods between jursidictions. Training materials, now scheduled for field testing will, if successful, be provided for internal instruction in the factors of productivity. Incentives - a comprehensive report updating an earlier survey of personnel incentives, used by public administrators is complete and scheduled for early publication. It is hoped that awareness of existing programs will stimulate further development of this topic. The successful Solid Waste and Police productivity projects are being followed by a similar effort in government inspections with draft guides for local managers expected by the end of June. Also, in the Police sector, a major conference on productivity improvement techniques was recently held (with the Police Foundation) for 200 police chiefs and mayors from across the country. - 4 PRIVATE SECTOR In the private sector the NCOP and WQ is concentrating its activity in the fields of food distribution, health care, construction and transportation. In food distribution the following projects are in progress: - Work with CWPS to encourage backhaul through a pamphlet on benefits and meetings with manufacturers, FTC and distributors; Investigation of consolidated delivery systems costs and benefits to participants (with Department of Agriculture); - Enlistment of industry and Department of Commerce support for a study of costs and benefits of modularized system; Developing awareness of technological needs by retailers through holding conferences at M.I.T. and the University of Southern California; and Stimulating the industry toward development of orderly manpower adjustment programs. In health care the following projects have been undertaken to contribute to increased productivity: Over 100 practitioners identified opportunities to increase productivity throughout the industry; A nationwide education program on productivity for hospital administrators; Development of a statewide productivity measurement system for national implementation; - Pooling of expertise of industry and health leaders in one state to pursue health care productivity improvement opportunities; EG - 5 - Removal of IRS barriers to hospital employee incentive programs; and Implementation of an in-hospital productivity improvement program. Problems of productivity in the construction industry are being approached by: - A conference held with leading labor/management officials on common problems of productivity measurement; - A report on new labor management initiatives to improve productivity; and - A labor/management subcommittee to deal with improvements in collective bargaining, productivity, and manpower issues. In transportation the NCOP and WQ has identified freight car utilization as a central issue in the fiscal viability of the railroad industry as well as in the capacity to provide the increased service required by the American economy. Accordingly, work on the interchangeability of freight cars has resulted in a "clearinghouse" experiment designed to eliminate excessive movement of empty cars. With three cooperating railroads, this experiment shows substantial direct operating savings, reduced capital investment and significantly better service to shippers. To encourage efficient capital investment practices, the NCOP and WQ is encouraging railroad and automobile representatives to confer and agree on common designs as new rail cars are developed for shipment of autos. Work is also under way on applications of both new and existing equipment for integrated shipments in a transcontinental intermodal food distribution service. - 6 The dedicated train concept as the Commission applied it in the "Fresh from the West" unit train service is proving the refrigerator car cycle time can be cut by 30%—the equivalent of 900 new cars or a $40 million investment—with far better service to the consumer. The staff is working with the railroads and additional industries to increase the application of this method of train operation, j EDUCATION To continue its efforts in technical education, the Commission maintains a series of publications of value to those working on productivity programs. These include such studies as: "The Role of Productivity in Controlling Inflation." - Productivity centers in other countries— a comparison of objectives, programs and background. Productivity trends and differences at the plant level: ° Casebook on Company Productivity Programs with Emphasis Upon How the Companies Got Started ° Analysis of Factors Affecting Interplant Differences in Productivity in Selected Industries "Public Attitudes on Work-Related Matters." Altogether, the Commission has completed 18 publications which have been distributed to key managers, government officials and others throughout the country. An additional 12 publications are in various stages of completion. The Commission also works actively with other Federal agencies on the design and implementation of research agendas. - 7 - iy The Public Awareness program, in cooperation with the Advertising Council, Inc., launched in the fall of 1973, continues in operation. Using the themes "Pride in Work" and "Productivity, the Key to Your Future" it is estimated to have made over 200 million contacts with the public Materials have been requested and used by over: 2,500 Radio Stations 1,000 TV Stations 1,000 Newspapers 600 Magazines 100,000 Trains and Buses 3,500 Billboards Department theTREASURY TELEPHONE W04-2041 VASHINGTON, D.C. April 29, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,600,000,000 » thereabouts, to be issued May 8, 1975, or as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,800,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated February 6, 1975, and to mature August 7, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XH4), originally issued in the amount of $2,400,740,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,800,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated and to mature November 6, 1975 May 8, 1975, (CUSIP No. 912793 XWI). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing May 8, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $4,802,370,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,624,305,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, May 5, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (OVER) -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. own account. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated.bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on May 8, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing ment. May 8, 1975. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Contact: J.G. Wallar x 2951 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 29, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES INITIATION OF COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATION Assistant Secretary of the Treasury David R. Macdonald announced today the issuance of a "Notice of Receipt of Countervailing Duty Petition and Initiation of Invesgiation", on hydrogenated castor oil and 12 hydroxystearic acid from Brazil. These castor oil products are used in the manufacture of heavy lubricants. The Notice will appear in the Federal Register of Wednesday, April 30, 1975. The Notice states that on March 10, 1975, a petition in satisfactory form was received alleging that payments or bestowals, conferred by the Government of Brazil upon the manufacture, production or exportation of these castor oil products from Brazil constitute the payment or bestowal of a bounty or grant within the meaning of the Countervailing Duty Law (19 U.S.C. 1303). Under the statute, the Treasury has six months from the date of receipt, until September 10, 1975, to make a preliminary determination, and 12 months, until March 10, 1976, to make a final determination. If Treasury finds that a bounty or grant has been paid or bestowed, the imports in question would be subject to an additional "countervailing" duty equivalent to the net amount of the bounty or grant. During calendar year 1974 imports of hydrogenated castor oil from Brazil were valued at $833,000. For the same period imports of 12 hydroxystearic acid from Brazil were valued at $230,000. # # # FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Monday, April 28, 197 5 Contact: Priscilla R. Crane (202) 634-5248 The first cooperative agreement between the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing and a State human rights agency was signed at the Treasury Department today. Elbert L. Guillory, Executive Director of the Maryland Commission on Human Relations and Graham W. Watt, Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing executed the agreement at a ceremony presided over by Edward C. Schmults, Under Secretary of the Treasury. The agreement signed today is the first of a series of comparable arrangements that the Office of Revenue Sharing plans to make with the 35 State human rights agencies which are recognized by the U. S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. These agreements will facilitate thorough investigation of the civil rights requirements which relate to expenditures of shared revenues by States and local governments that receive the funds. -more- -2- The Maryland-Office of Revenue Sharing agreement provides that the Office of Revenue Sharing will advise the Maryland Commission on Human Relations of all complaints alleging discrimination in the use of General Revenue Sharing funds by any general government in Maryland, by secondary recipients or by their contractors. The Maryland Commission on Human Relations may then assist in the investigatory process by conducting compliance reviews of the jurisdictions about which complaints have been raised. The Maryland Commission on Human Relations will extend its ongoing monitoring and enforcement activities to include reviews of compliance with the civil rights provisions of the revenue sharing law. Where there is reason to believe that discrimination in violation of the revenue sharing law has occurred, the Maryland Commission will advise the Office of Revenue Sharing and the Office of Revenue Sharing will move to resolve the problem. Where the Maryland Commission has conducted a review, the Office of Revenue Sharing will give the State's findings substantial weight. A determination by the Maryland Commission will not preclude the Office of Revenue Sharing from making its own determination, however. Likewise, a determination by the Office of Revenue Sharing will not preclude the Maryland Commission from making a separate determination with respect to State statutes and other laws under its jurisdiction. y\ The Office of Revenue Sharing and the Maryland Commission on Human Relations will coordinate their work and cooperate in all revenue sharing-related civil rights reviews that take place within the State. On a confidential basis, the two agencies will exchange information relevant to adequate enforcement of the civil rights provisions of revenue sharing law within the State of Maryland. The proposed agreements with State civil rights agencies, of which today's is the first, are to be part of the Office of Revenue Sharing's innovative audit and compliance system. The Office of Revenue Sharing is drawing upon capabilities already existing in the Federal and State governments, as part of its overall program to assure compliance with all provisions of revenue sharing law. The Office of Revenue Sharing already has consummated cooperative audit agreements with most States in the United States through which State audit agencies are including reviews of compliance with provisions of revenue sharing law in their regular audits of state agencies and units of local government. The State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 which authorizes the General Revenue Sharing program provides that "no person in the United States shall on the grounds of race, color, national origin or sex be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination -4- under any program or activity funded in whole or in part with .... (revenue sharing funds)." Shared revenues must be spent in accordance with the State and local laws and procedures which apply to the expenditure of a recipient government's own funds. General Revenue Sharing money may not be used to match other Federal funds. And if 25% or more of a construction project involving $2,000 or more is paid from shared revenues, then the Davis Bacon Act minimum wage rates must be paid. Revenue sharing law further provides that State governments may spend their revenue sharing dollars in any area of activity. Local units of government may spend their shared revenues for any capital purpose or for operating and maintenance of programs in any one or more of eight priority categories specified in the law. The State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 was signed into law on October 20, 1972. Since then, $18.9 billion have been distributed to nearly 39,000 States and local governments throughout the United States. The law authorizes the distribution of $30.2 billion over a five year period that ends with December 1976. -30- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: April 29, 1975 Helene Melzer, 964-8706 ANITA F. ALPERN BECOMES TREASURY'S FIRST WOMAN GS-18 CIVIL SERVANT With today's announcement of the appointment of Anita F. Alpern as Assistant Commissioner for Planning and Research in the Internal Revenue Service, the Treasury Department attains its first career-level woman GS-18, the highest level in the Civil Service merit system. Only 8 women have reached that level in the classified Federal Service. "The promotion of Anita Alpern to the highest grade in the Civil Service is indeed well deserved and marks a milestone in the annals of the Treasury Department," said Warren F. Brecht, Assistant Secretary (Administration), who has responsibility for Treasury's Equal Opportunity Program. "I have worked closely with Anita over the past two years and regard her highly. Her achievement points the way for other women." Miss Alpern,who had been Deputy Assistant Commissioner, and then Acting Assistant Commissioner, following the retirement of Dean Barron last December, had, as a GS-17, already been Treasury's highest ranking woman in the career service. The Director of the Mint and the Treasurer of the United States, both appointed by the President, subject to Senate confirmation, have the same grade-level equivalent, but are not part of the competitive service. Miss Alpern,55, began her government service in 1942 as a P-l (now GS-5) economist with the U.S. Employment Service, then the Bureau of Employment Security. In 1947, she transferred to the Department of Defense, where she served successively as administrator, senior program analyst, and systems research analyst in the Office of the Secretary. She joined the Internal Revenue Service in 1960 as a management analyst, and subsequently was appointed chief of the analytical services staff, collection division. WS-287 (MORE) - 2 In 1972, Miss Alpern became the first IRS "supergrade" woman with her promotion to Director, Program Review and Analytical Service Staff, and in December 1973, she was appointed Deputy Assistant Commissioner for Planning and Research, as well as Director, Planning and Analysis Division. In the course of her IRS career, the new Assistant Commissioner has developed analysis systems for tax collection programs, supervised the design for systems to forecast workloads and taxpayer assistance problems, tax collection and tax returns processing. In her new post, Miss Alpern coordinates national Internal Revenue Service plans and policies, organization and procedures, and directs all legislative, research and operations analysis and tax systems redesign. Miss Alpern was born in New York City and earned a B.A. in political"science at the University of Wisconsin, later completing graduate courses in public administration at Columbia University. She has earned numerous awards at IRS, including nominations in 1966, 1971 and 1973 for the Federal Woman's Award; Outstanding Efficiency Ratings in 1966, 1967, 1968 and 1971, the latter with a high quality increase; and a Special Act of Service Award in 1963. At DOD, she also earned Outstanding Efficiency Ratings in 1952 and 1956, and was nominated for an American Management Association scholarship in 1955. Since October 1974, Miss Alpern has been chairperson of the Treasury Women's Advisory Committee, a top-level group of women who advise the Secretary of the Treasury on the special activities of women within the Department. Miss Alpern is vice president of the National Capital Area Chapter of the American Society for Public Administration She is a member of the District of Columbia Society of Crippled Children, and of the Board of Directors of the Federal Executive Institute. She has lectured on management by objectives and on leadership techniques at the University of Southern California, the Civil Service Commission and the Department of Interior and has written articles on related topics. oOo DepartmentoftheTREASURY TELEPHONE W04-2041 WASHINGTON. D.C. 20220 /789 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 30, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S 52-WEEK BILL AUCTION Tenders for $1,400 million of 52-week Treasury bills to be issued to the public, to be dated May 6, 1975, and to mature May 4, 1976, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED COMPETITIVE BIDS: (Excepting 1 tender of $85,000) Price High Low Average 93.578 93.508 93.529 Discount Rate Investment Rate (Equivalent Coupon-Issue Yield) 6.79% 6.86% 6.84% 6.351% 6.421% 6.400% TOTAL TENDERS FROM THE PUBLIC RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS District Received Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco $ 33,840,000 2,290,950,000 27,500,000 59,070,000 30,915,000 13,220,000 321,560,000 39,565,000 26,445,000 17,755,000 34,070,000 497,620,000 $3,392,510,000 TOTAL Accepted $ 3,545,000 828,770,000 7,500,000 24,030,000 20,035,000 7,220,000 159,040,000 14,695,000 21,445,000 . 8,225,000 10,190,000 296,470,000 $1,401,165,000 The $1,401,165,000 of accepted tenders includes 12% of the amount of bills bid for at the low price and $56,035,000 of noncompetitive tenders from the public accepted at the average price. In addition, $1,033,225,000 of tenders were accepted at the average price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 30, 1975 Contact: Stanley Sommerfield 964-2394 FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL REGULATIONS The Treasury Department today, at the request of the State Department, announced that Foreign Assets Control Regulations are now in effect with respect to South Vietnam. The effect of these regulations is to prohibit all financial and commercial transactions with South Vietnam unless permitted by license by Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control. While this action includes the blocking of South Vietnamese government accounts in the United States and overseas, as well as all accounts of persons acting or purporting to act on behalf of South Vietnam who are not now in the United States, accounts of private and official Vietnamese who are now in the United States will not be affected. Accounts of South Vietnam offrcials overseas who no longer act, or purport to act, on behalf of South Vietnam will also not be affected. oOo WS-290 Department of theTREASURY OFFICEWASHINGTON, OF REVENUE SHARING D.C. 20226 w w TELEPHONE 634-5248 \o For Immediate Release Thursday, May 1, 1975 Contact: Priscilla R. Crane (202) 634-5248 In a joint agreement signed today, the Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing (ORS) and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) began preparation of "Guidebook on Equal Employment for Public Employers;" The book is scheduled for publication in the summer of 1975. The new guide will be designed primarily*to assist public employers to comply with the civil rights provisions of the State and Local FiscalAssistance Act of; 1972, which authorized the general revenue sharing program;'?' In addition, the'book is to contain summaries of other, relevant Federal laws; and it will include a section on non-employment aspects o r revenue sharing law. An independent consultant will research and wfite the guide, under^ -r contract to the Office of Revenue Sharing, at an estimated costof $10,000.'*'-* The lead agency to provide research assistance to the consultant will be EEOC; and the ORS and EEOC jointly will be responsible for production and distribution. The Educational Programs Division, Office of Voluntary Programs, of EEOC and the Compliance Division of ORS will represent their respective agencies in this project. "This project is one of a number of new efforts being undertaken jointly under the terms of a cooperative agreement that was signed by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the Office of Revenue Sharing in October 1974," Graham W. Watt, Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing, -more- 2. announced today. "That agreement established procedures to assist both agencies to resolve complaints of employment discrimination against public employers and their contractors," Watt added. General Revenue Sharing is a five-year program which is returning $30.2 billion to some 39,000 states and local governments through December 1976. More than $17 billion has been paid to recipient governments since the first funds were distributed, in December 1972. President Ford will ask the Congress early this spring for an extension of the program. Revenue Sharing law provides that "no person in the United States shall on the ground of race, color, national origin, or sex be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any-program or activity funded in whole or in part with funds made available under ..." the_program. Today's agreement for production of the new guidebook was signed for the Office of Revenue Sharing by its Director, Graham W. Watt, and for the EEOC by its Acting Executive Director, Harold S. Fleming. ### For information on submitting tenders: TELEPHONE WO4-2604 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 1, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES MAY REFINANCING The Treasury will auction to the public next week up to $2.75 billion of 3-1/4-year notes, up to $1.50 billion of 7-year notes, and up to $0.75 billion of 30-year bonds. This will refund $3.8 billion of notes held by the public maturing May 15, and will raise $1.2 billion new cash. Additional amounts of the notes and bonds may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and to Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, which hold $4.7 billion of maturing notes. The notes and bonds to be auctioned will be: Treasury Notes of Series E-1978 dated May 15, 1975, due August 15, 1978 (CUSIP No. 912827 EL 2) with interest payable on February 15 an'd August 15, 1976, and thereafter on February 15 and August 15, Treasury Notes of Series A-1982 dated May 15, 1975, due May 15, 1982 (CUSIP No. 912827 EM 0) with interest payable on May 15 and November 15, and Treasury Bonds of 2000-05 dated May 15, 1975, due May 15, 2005, callable at the option of the United States on any interest payment date on and after May 15, 2000 (CUSIP No. 912810 BU 1) with interest payable on May 15 and November 15. The coupon rates for the notes and bonds will be determined after tenders are allotted. Payment for the securities must be made on May 15, 1975, except that payment for the bonds may be deferred until June 2, 1975. Payment may not be made through tax and loan accounts. The 3-1/4-year notes will be issued in denominations of $5,000, $10,000, $100,000 and $1,000,000. The 7-year notes and the bonds will be issued in denominations of $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, $100,000 and $1,000,000. The securities will be issued in registered and bearer form and will be available for issue in book-entry form. Definitive 3-1/4-year notes in bearer form will be delivered on or about May 27, 1975. Definitive 7-year notes and bonds in bearer form will be delivered on or about May 28, 1975. Definitive bearer bonds will be delivered on or about May 28, 1975, and June 2, 1975. Purchasers of bearer securities may elect to receive interim certificates on the payment date, which will be bearer securities exchangeable at face value for securities of the appropriate issue when available. Tenders for the 3-1/4-year notes will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Tuesday, May 6, tenders for the 7-year notes will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Wednesday, May 7, and tenders for the bonds will be received up to 1:30 p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Thursday, May 8, at any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch and at the Bureau -2of the Public Debt, Washington, D. C. 20226; provided, however, that noncompetitive tenders will be considered timely received if they are mailed to any such agency under a postmark no later than May 5 for the 3-1/4-year notes, May 6 for the 7-year notes, and May 7 for the bonds. Tenders for the 3-1/4-year notes must be in the amount of $5,000 or a multiple thereof. Tenders for the 7-year notes and the bonds must be in the amount of $1,000 or a multiple thereof. Each tender must state the yield desired, if a competitive tender, or the term "noncompetitive", if a noncompetitive tender. Competitive tenders must be expressed in terms of annual yield in two decimal places, e.g., 7.11, and not in terms of a price. Tenders at the lowest yields, and noncompetitive tenders, will be accepted to the extent required to attain the amounts offered. After a determination is made as to which tenders are accepted, a coupon yield will be determined for each issue to the nearest 1/8 of 1 percent necessary to make the average accepted prices 100.000 or less. Those will be the rates of interest that will be paid on all of the securities of each issue. Based on such interest rates, the price on each competitive tender allotted will be determined and each successful competitive bidder will pay the price corresponding to the yield bid. Price calculations will be carried to three decimal places on the basis of price per hundred, e.g., 99.923, and the determinations of the Secretary of the Treasury shall be final. Tenders at a yield that will produce a price less than 99.251 for the 3-1/4-year notes, 98.251 for the 7-year notes, and 92.501 for the bonds will not be accepted. Noncompetitive bidders will be required to pay the average price of accepted competitive tenders; the price will be 100.000 or less. Fractions may not be used in tenders. The notation "TENDER FOR TREASURY NOTES (Series E-1978 or A-1982)" or "TENDER FOR TREASURY BONDS" should be printed at the bottom of envelopes in which tenders are submitted. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations noncompetitive tenders for $500,000 or less for each issue will be accepted in full at the average price of accepted competitive tenders. Commercial banks, which for this purpose are defined as banks accepting demand deposits, and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, may submit tenders for the account of customers, provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from commercial and other banks for their own account, Federally-insured savings and loan associations, States, political subdivisions or instrumentalities thereof, public pension and retirement and other public funds, international organizations in which the United States holds membership, foreign central banks and foreign States, dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, Federal Reserve Banks, and Government accounts. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 5 percent of the face amount of securities applied for. However, bidders who submit checks in payment on tenders 9,D9 submitted directly to a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury may find it necessary to submit full payment for the securities with their tenders in order to meet the time limits pertaining to checks as hereinafter set forth. Allotment notices will not be sent to bidders who submit noncompetitive tenders. Payment for accepted tenders must be completed on or before Thursday, May 15, 1975, at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch or at the Bureau of the Public Debt, except that payment for up to 100 percent of the amount of bonds allotted may be deferred until June 2, 1975, as set forth in the following paragraph. Payment must be in cash, 6% Treasury Notes of Series B-1975 or 5-7/8% Treasury Notes of Series F-1975, which will be accepted at par, in other funds immediately available to the Treasury by May 15, or by check drawn to the order of the Federal Reserve Bank to which the tender is submitted, or the United States Treasury if the tender is submitted to it, which must be received at such bank or at the Treasury no later than: (1) Monday, May 12, 1975, if the check is drawn on a bank in the Federal Reserve District of the Bank to which the check is submitted, or the Fifth Federal Reserve District in case of the Treasury, or (2) Friday, May 9, 1975, if the check is drawn on a bank in another district. Checks received after the dates set forth in the preceding sentence will not be accepted unless they are payable at a Federal Reserve Bank. Where full payment is not completed on time, the allotment will be canceled and the deposit with the tender up to 5 percent of the amount of securities allotted will be subject to forfeiture to the United States. If payment for the bonds is to be deferred until June 2, 1975, the bidder must indicate on the tender form the amount of bonds allotted on which payment will be deferred. Accrued interest from May 15 to June 2, 1975, will be charged on the deferred payment at the coupon yield established for the bonds. In the case of partial payments from bidders who are required to submit a 5 percent deposit with their tender, 5 percent of the total amount of bonds allotted, adjusted to the next higher multiple of $1,000, will be withheld from delivery (in addition to the bonds on which payment is deferred) until the total amount due on the bonds allotted is paid. 1o< Comments to the Press Regarding Treasury Financing by Jack F. Bennett Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs 4:00 PM, May 1, 1975 Ladies and Gentlemen: We appreciate your coming here today, for we are grateful for your help in making the details of our Treasury security offerings widely known. This is the fourth such conference this year. Over the course of these conferences the estimates of the Government's needs to borrow from the public over the current half year period have varied. On January 22 the estimated increase in indebtedness to the public from December 30, 1974 to June 30, 1975 was $28 billion. February 24 the estimate was up to $38 billion. ago on March 31 the estimate was $41 billion. estimate is $36 billion. On A month Today our best Since that last conference tax payments have been coming in larger than expected so that the estimate of total budget receipts for the current fiscal year ending June 30 have been revised upward from $275 billion to $282 billion, though of course, considerable uncertainty remains even for this fiscal year's receipts. Of the total of $36 billion of expected increase in debt outstanding in this half year $28-1/2 billion has already been accomplished or announced through the first four months, - 2 that is through yesterday, April 30, leaving $7-1/2 billion still to be arranged. Of that amount some portion is expected to be arranged through sale of Savings Bonds, leaving $6-3/4 billion to be raised net through sales of marketable securities to the public in issues not yet announced, that is in addition to the sales we have already announced through the sale of 3 and 6 month bills to be paid for on Thursday of next week. N That $6-3/4 billion net still to be raised in the market is in addition to amounts to be raised to pay off securities maturing during this period, that is the weekly maturities of 3 and 6 -months bills; the one year bill maturing on June 3rd; the coupon securities maturing on May 15, of which some are held by the Federal Reserve Banks, which we assume will roll over their investment, and of which $3*8 billion are held by the public; the regular quarter-end security maturing on June 30 of $2 billion; and finally the cash management and tax anticipation bills maturing in mid-June in the amount of $2.75 billion. Of these maturities the market would confidently expect that we would roll-over all the maturities except that $2.75 billion of cash management and tax anticipation bills, so that I tend to look at our market financing decision to be how to raise in new borrowing the $6-3/4 billion of net increase in indebtedness plus the $2.75 billion, for a total of $9-1/2 billion. 1^ In raising that $9-1/2 billion we have to make difficult decisions on which maturities to offer. One factor we have to take into account is that we have been concentrating our borrowing very heavily in the short maturities with the result that the average length of our marketable debt has been declining, from 5 years, 9 months at the end of 1964 to 2 years, 9 mos. at the end of 1974, to 2 years, 8 mos. yesterday, as indicated in one of the charts in the background material we have distributed to you. As a net result of the passage of time, the maturity of some securities, and new issues by us, the Treasury now has outstanding $300 million fewer securities maturing in over 7 years than it did at the beginning of the year. As of yesterday, of the $205 billion of marketable Treasury securities in the hands of the public, 697o matures in 2 years or less, 23% matures in 2 to 7 years, and only 87o matures in more than 7 years. The financing plan we have come up with does not, however, make much change in the average length of the debt. Under that plan the average length at the end of June is expected to be 2 years and 9 months, and that average length would be reduced further thereafter until our next longer term issue. Our financing plan consists of three parts: several securities which we are formally announcing today for sale next week in the separate announcement you have received; three coupon issues which we are tentatively projecting for - 4 sale late this month and next month but have not finally decided upon though we are announcing our projections at this time for the information of prospective purchasers, and thirdly some expected increases in our bill issues which will be decided and announced later in the light of our actual cash position. The securities being offered today are: $2.75 billion, 3-1/4 year notes maturing August 15, 1978; 1.3 billion, .750 billion, 7 year notes maturing May 15, 1982; and 30 year bonds maturing May 15, 2005. These securities total $5 billion and will raise $1.2 billion in-cash. They will be auctioned in maturity order next week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday by yield'auction. The minimum denomination will be $5,000 for the 3-1/4 year note and $1,000 for the longer term securities. The payment for the new securities will be on May 15 except that purchasers will have the option to pay for the 30 year bond on June 2. In addition to these securities we anticipate three coupon issues to fit into our new 2-year note cycle. The first will be for $2 billion maturing on May 31, 1977, auctioned on May 14, for payment on May 27. I understand that the Home Loan Bank system has announced today the paydown of $1.3 billion of maturing securities on that date. The second security will be a 16 month $1.5 billion note maturing October 31, 1976, to be auctioned on May 22nd, and paid for on June 6. The third will be a roll-over of the $2 billion maturity on June 30 to June 30, 1977, probably to be auctioned on June 17. In addition to these securities sold to the public we would expect some purchases of the same marketable securities will be made by foreign monetary authorities. For planning purposes we assume these purchases will total about $600 million. To achieve our forecast total financing need of $9-1/2 billion we shall probably have in addition to raise some amount, now forecast at $4.2 billion, through additions to our bills outstanding. We have five weekly bill maturities and one yearly bill maturity prior to mid-June, our traditional cash low point. I intend to maintain flexibility by not announcing individual amounts for the prospective bill sales. Finally I would like to mention that our current estimate of the required net increase in our indebtedness in the second half of the year is now about $40 billion if the Congress accepts the President's recommendation of a $60 billion budget deficit for the fiscal year 1976. Of course our borrowing requirement will be higher if the budget deficit is increased. Now, I'd be happy to attempt to answer any questions. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 1, 1975 Contact: R.E. Harper 964-5775 PRESIDENT FORD MAKES FIRST-DAY PURCHASE OF BICENTENNTlL-DESIGN SERIE?TE BOND President Gerald R. Fdrd today purchased a Bicentennialdesign Series E. Savings Bond -- the first printed -- from Secretary of the Treasury William Ee Simon in the White House Oval Office. Terms and conditions of the redesigned Bonds remain the same; only the "face" has been changed. E Bonds earn six percent interest, compounded semiannually, when held to fiveyear maturity. In the new design, the Minute Man -- long a Savings Bonds symbol -- replaces the eagle, and Bicentennial-related vignettes replace the Presidential portraits. The tint is in blue ink, rather than green, and all of the face printing that had been black is changed to blue. The Bicentennial logo is printed in red, immediately to the left of the legend in the lower part of the Bond, while "1776 Bicentennial 1976" appears in red, immediately above the vignette. WS-289 - 2 The commemorative vignettes, by denomination, are: $25 -- Independence Hall; $50 -- Liberty Bell; $75 -- Spirit of f76; $100 -- Valley Forge; $200 -- Crossing the Delaware; $500 -Washington; $1,000 -- Declaration of Independence. The $10,000 denomination is unchanged. The red, white and blue Bonds are now on sale, nationwide; they will be available through December 1976. Ceremonies marking the Bicentennial and the 34th anniversary of the Savings Bonds Program are being held across the country, with governors, mayors, county executives buying "first" issues and proclaiming the week of May 5-9 as "Minute-Man" Week. Thirty-four years ago, President Franklin D. Roosevelt bought the first Series E Bond -- called a Defense Bond -- from then Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau, Jr. Since then, tens of millions of Americans have bought and held Savings Bonds, setting dollars aside for new homes, automobiles, college educations, better retirement, the proverbial rainy day. At the same time, they have helped the government finance national programs and projects. Today, approximately $65 billion worth is outstanding, and sales have been setting postwar records. Total sales in 1974 came to $6.8 billion; sales for the first quarter of 1975 amounted to $1.9 billion. Participating in the ceremony were -- Secretary of Agriculture Earl L. Butz, Chairman, Interdepartmental Savings Bonds Committee; H. J. Hintgen, Commissioner of the Public Debt; Mrs. Marjorie Lynch, Deputy Administrator, American Revolution Bicentennial Administration; W. Jarvis Moody, Chairman, American Bankers Association Savings Bonds Committee, and President, American Security and Trust Co., Washington; Clifford C. Sommer, Chairman, Savings Bonds Bicentennial Activities, and Vice President, University of Minnesota Foundation, Minneapolis; Mrs. Francine I. Neff, National Director, U. S. Savings Bonds Division, and Treasurer of the United States, and Jesse L. Adams, Jr., Deputy National Director, U. S. Savings Bonds Division. -- USSB -- BICENTENNIAL-DESIGN SERIES E SAVINGS BOND FACT SHEET * The Bicentennial-design Series E Savings Bond will be on sale through the Bicentennial years. * Rates, terms and conditions of the Bicentennial-design E Bond are identical to those of the familiar Presidential design; only the physical appearance has been changed. * Interest rate is six percent, when held to a five-year maturity. * Design changes, which make the Bond a patriotic red, white and blue, are -Tint is in blue ink, rather than green, and all of the face printing in black is changed to blue. The "Minute Man" replaces the eagle as the central figure in the tint design. The Bicentennial logo is printed in red immediately to the left of the legend in the lower part of the Bond. The Presidential portraits are replaced by the following commemorative vignettes -$25 - Independence Hall $200 - Crossing the Delaware $50 - Liberty Bell $500 - Washington P 11: £ 76 *?nn " S nT 2 ' $1,000 - Declaration of Inde5100 - Valley Forge pendence The inscription "1776 BICENTENNIAL 1976" is printed in red immediately above the vignette. * The Presidential-design E Bond will remain on sale until stock is exhausted. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 1, 1975 JAMES J. FEATHERSTONE NAMED DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon announced today the appointment of James J. Featherstone to be the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Law Enforcement. Mr. Featherstone, who reports to Assistant Secretary David R. Macdonald, will assume direct supervision of Treasury law enforcement policies and programs. He comes to Treasury from the Department of Justice where he was Deputy Chief of the Organized Crime Section. Born November 14, 1926, at Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, Mr. Featherstone spent much of his early youth in the New York City area. He was a former member of the U. S. Navy from 1944 to 1946 and received his LL.B. in 1953 from Fordham University School of Law. After two years with Mendes and Mount, a New York law firm, he joined the Department of Justice in October 1955, serving initially in the Internal Security Division. Later assigned to the Espionage Unit as a Trial Attorney, he was on the trial staff which prosecuted Rudolph Ivanovich Abel. In 1959 he transferred to the Organized Crime and Racketeering Section of the Criminal Division. His assignment as an Area Coordinator for the Midwest was to develop investigative programs calculated to result in prosecutions of major organized crime figures. In 1961 he was assigned to Kansas City, Missouri for over two years where he worked with agents from all federal investigative agencies developing cases against organized crime figures and their associates, conducted extensive Grand Jury inquiries and tried cases resulting from the investigations. He returned to Washington in 1963. (more) - 2 In 1966 he was placed in charge of the Labor Racketeering Unit within the Organized Crime Section and in 1968 he was made Attorney in Charge of the Newark Strike Force. A Strike Force is a field office established to conduct organized crime investigations and prosecutions in the cities with the most acute organized crime problems. In the latter part of 1969, he became Attorney in Charge of the Chicago Strike Force, where he remained until becoming a Deputy Chief of the Organized Crime and Racketeering Section in June 1970. Mr. Featherstone resides in Clifton, Virginia, with his wife, Mary, and their four children. oOo FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE STEPHEN S. GARDNER DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON THE TREASURY, POSTAL SERVICE, AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT APPROPRIATIONS THURSDAY, MAY 1, 1975 Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to be here today in support of the FY 1976 Appropriation Request for the National Commission on Productivity and Work Quality. The request is directed toward the $2.5 million contained within the President's 1976 budget for the Commission. Present authorizing legislation for the Commission, P. L. 93-311, expires June 30, 1975. It is intended that the work.of the National Commission on Productivity and Work Quality will be carried on under new authorizing legislation which has been introduced in both the Senate and the House — S.765, S.937, and H.R. 6078 — providing for a National Center for Productivity for at least a 3-year period. As you know, the Commission has had a 4-year history of uncertain annual authorizations which we hope will be remedied by passage of new legislation. The Department of the Treasury is vitally interested in the improvement of the U.S. economy. The Secretary of the Treasury is Chairman of the Economic Policy Board which oversees the work of the current Productivity Commission and participates directly in its work. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Fiedler and I have had the opportunity to testify before the House and Senate respectively in support of the authorizing legislation for a National Center for Productivity and we have been impressed by this Nation's growing acknowledgement that productivity growth and quality of work are essential components to a revitalized economy and that we all must cooperate to achieve it. As evidence of this awareness I would like to submit for your information the joint statement of Secretary of Labor Dunlop, former Chairman of the National Commission on WS-288 Productivity and Work Quality; Donald Burnham, Vice Chairman; and Bruce Thrasher on the behalf of I. W. Abel, Vice Chairman; - 2 before the Economic Stabilization Subcommittee of the House Committee on Banking, Currency and Housing, on the proposed Center. Their testimony sets the framework of joint effort and concern by labor, management and government about which the request for $2.5 million is built. In his testimony before the same House Subcommittee, Assistant Secretary Fiedler reviewed a number of accomplishments of the Commission during the past year and I have submitted with this statement a summary of those efforts. What is evident throughout each of the major projects the Commission has supported is that a concerted joint effort by labor, management, government and others can yield significant results. The problem of moving perishibles from the West Coast was identified by a committee of over 100 food distribution experts as having resulted in a decade of total dissatisfaction by all concerned. With the leadership of the Commission, everyone involved, from the growers to the Interstate Commerce Commission, worked at removing whatever industry, regulatory and tradition-based barriers they could identify and created a dedicated, unit train that now brings fresh fruits and vegetables across the country in 6 days on schedule instead of 10 to 16 days on an irregular basis, thereby allowing railroads to render a significantly better service which under old operations would have required capital investment in 900 refrigerated box cars. We have also seen the entire steel industry and its union take enormous strides toward cooperative efforts to institute productivity improvements that will strengthen that industry. The Commission has identified other situations where labor/management groups have undertaken unique programs within the working environment to yield improved job satisfaction and higher productivity. Rather than reiterate the list of accomplishments we have submitted, or rearticulate the details of the program contained in the submission to this committee, I think it would be most helpful if I were to describe one of the Commission's recent projects in some detail. In so doing, I hope to make cl£ar both the potential gains we can look for on an economic basis and demonstrate how the continued effort to identify and resolve opportunities for productivity gains has a cumulative impact among those involved in the process. - 3 Concerned with productivity in the food industry, the Commission directed its limited resources at food transport and stimulated, as I've already mentioned, the "fresh from the West" train. The momentum of that project, however, not only produced that train, but also has caused the food industry to explore other opportunities in distribution improvement. Moreover, the project stimulated further concentration within the broader context of rail transport problems. A committee of the Commission, in conjunction with the Council of Economic Advisers, examined some of the problems of the Railroad Industry and surfaced some startling facts: (a) in spite of a nationwide rail car shortage, cars were in motion only 15% of their useful life; (b) carried freight at an average speed of 3.1 miles per hour; (c) in 1973, 42.3% of all railroad freight car miles traveled involved no payload; and (d) 75% of the industry's capital investment was in rolling stock with an industry average return on investment of less than 3%. The Commission's task force felt that a method must be derived to both increase the availability of freight cars for loading and decrease the operating costs associated with moving empty cars. Through continued dialogue with industry officials, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC), the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and others affected by this problem, the Commission staff devised an experiment to reduce empty mileage and maintain car availability. The effort eventually produced the outline of a clearinghouse concept which was refined in a series of workshops with the FRA, ICC, AAR, industry officials, shippers and, receivers. Three railroads quickly agreed to participate in the rail car clearinghouse experiment. One barrier, an ICC regulation concerning car service orders, was removed one day after the participating railroads petitioned for an exemption. This quick response by the ICC Chairman was to a large measure the direct result of the continuing participation of ICC personnel in the entire project. On September 15, 1974, less than six months after the effort began, the experiment started. Today, the participating railroads report substantial savings through fewer car miles and lowered fuel consumption, lower switching costs and greater efficiencies in car movement. They are also - 4 gaining greater utilization of their freight cars and thereby increasing the effective rate of return on their capital investment. There are approximately 70 class 1 railroads. It is now estimated that if a majority of these railroads were operating under the Clearinghouse concept, $100 million could be saved annually in operating costs alone. Once again, however, the primary value of this project does not lie in the dollars saved by the participating railroads but with the successful experience of the joint labor, management and government effort to develop for themselves new and more productive means of doing business. The measures of success for the Commission, as in the past, must be in terms of its ability to cause elements of an industry, economic sector or public service to engage themselves in an effective effort to improve their productivity. I'm sure I don't have to emphasize the need we have of this effort today. The bulk of the Center's activity in FY 1976 will be directed toward the continuation, expansion or initiation of projects such as the one described above and in the background material submitted for your review. The $2.5 million requested, is equal to the amount requested in FY 1975 but $500,000 more than the amount appropriated. The $2.5 million will enable the Center to operate with a full staff of 20 permanent positions, meet the growing printing and mailing costs associated with the increasing demand for Commission publications, and undertake both those projects that had to be delayed this past year due to the lowered appropriation and those new projects important to conducting a responsive program within each sector. In his economic message addressed to the joint session of Congress on October 8, 1974, President Ford spelled out a specific mandate to the National Commission on Productivity and Work Quality. Given the broad nature of the sources of productivity improvement and the need to focus our limited resources, the President said that the Commission "will initially concentrate on problems of productivity in government — Federal State and local. Outside of government, it will develop meaningful blueprints for labor/management cooperation at the plant level. It should look particularly at the construction and health service industries." He also - 5 charged the Commission to continue its work to improve productivity in the food and transtporation industries. The Commission's FY 1976 program plan submitted to you is in response to that mandate. It now appears that the President in his statement, Congress in their introduction of legislation, and labor, management and government leaders are united in their belief that productivity growth is important for our economic well being and that an institution like the proposed Center will assist us in attaininq that growth. The FY 76 program plan describes both the progress made to date by the Commission in each of its major program a 6 * to a n d . m o ? e detailed justification for the FY 1976 request of $2.5 million and 20 permanent position. We would be pleased to submit any additional information in support of this request. STATEMENT OF MR . DONALD C. BURNHAM DIRECTOR - OFFICER OF WESTIMGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORPORATION DR. JOHN T. DUNLOP SECRETARY OF LABOR MR. BRUCE THRASHER ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT., UNITED STEELMAKERS OF AMERICA HEARINGS BEFORE THE HOUSE BANKING, CURRENCY, AND HOUSING COMMITTEE ECONOMIC STABILIZATION SUBCOMMITTEE FRIDAY, APRIL 25, 1975 MR, CHAIRMAN, WE ARE PLEASED TO BE ABLE TO TESTIFY IN SUPPORT OF H.R. 6078, A BILL TO ESTABLISH A NATIONAL CENTER ON PRODUCTIVITY. WE ARE APPEARING TOGETHER BECAUSE WE SHARE A DEEP CONVICTION THAT THE PROPOSED CENTER WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IN A PERIOD OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND MOUNTING W O R L D PRESSURES, TIVITY PRODUC- IMPROVEMENT IS THE FOUNDATION OF OUR ECONOMIC WELFARE AND HIGH STANDARD OF LIVING AND IS, THEREFORE, A MATTER OF 2 CONCERN FOR ALL OF US - LABOR, BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT. THIS PROPOSAL FOR THE FORMATION OF A PRODUCTIVITY CENTER IS PUT FORWARD WITH THE PROVISO THAT THE BASIC RESPONSI- BILITY FOR PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT RESTS WITH THOSE WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR DELIVERING GOODS AND SERVICES TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE - NOT A NEW GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRACY, TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE TO THE NEED FOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, LET US BRIEFLY REVIEW SOME LONG-TERM TRENDS. FIRST, WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD IN WHICH OUR PRODUCTIVE RESOURCES WILL GROW MORE SLOWLY THAN IN THE PAST. AT THE SAME TIME EXTRAORDINARILY LARGE DEMANDS ARE BEING PLACED UPON OUR PRODUCTIVE SYSTEM. WE MUST INVEST IN EXPENSIVE PRIORITIES SUCH AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ENERGY SOURCES, IMPROVED TRANSPORTATION, EXPANDED INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY, HOUSING, BETTER HEALTH CARE, AND NEW INDUSTRIES WHICH CREATE NEW JOBS. THESE CHALLENGES SHOULD COMPEL US TO EXPAND OUR EFFORTS TO IMPROVE THE EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICIENCY WITH WHICH WE UTILIZE OUR RESOURCES OF MANPOWER, CAPITAL, ENERGY, AND MATERIALS, SECOND; OUR ECONOMY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SERVICE- ORIENTED. ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WORKFORCE ARE EMPLOYED IN GOVERNMENT OR SERVICE INDUSTRIES WHICH HAVE, AS FAR AS WE KNOW, RELATIVELY LOW RATES OF PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT. 3 > ( « WE NEED TO FIND WAYS OF INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY IN THESE LAGGING LABOR-INTENSIVE SECTORS, IF WE ARE TO MAINTAIN OUR HISTORIC PATTERN OF GROWTH, THIRD AND FINALLY, WE LIVE IN A HIGHLY COMPETITIVE, INTERDEPENDENT WORLD ECONOMY, AMERICAN INDUSTRY IS BEING MORE SERIOUSLY CHALLENGED EACH YEAR BY FOREIGN COMPETITORS WITH TECHNOLOGY COMPARABLE TO OUR OWN, BUT MUCH LOWER WAGE SCALES AND LIVING STANDARDS, WE MUST MAINTAIN OUR COMPETITIVENESS IF WE ARE TO PROTECT THE JOBS OF AMERICAN WORKERS. RECENT FIGURES, HOWEVER, SHOW THAT THE U.S. MAY BE IN A DETERIORATING COMPETITIVE POSITION, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATES IN OUR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES HAVE LAGGED BEHIND THOSE OF OTHER MAJOR INDUSTRIAL NATIONS. WE ARE SPENDING RELATIVELY LESS OF OUR GNP ON CAPITAL EQUIPMENT THAN OTHER INDUSTRIAL NATIONS, AND OUR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING HAS BEEN DECLINING, HAS DIMINISHED. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR POTENTIAL WE HAVE THE MOST ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY IN THE WORLD, WE HAVE AN INCREASINGLY BETTER EDUCATED WORKFORCE, AND WE HAVE SKILLED MANAGEMENT THAT IS UNMATCHED, WE HAVE ENORMOUS OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE OUR COUNTRY STRONGER, MORE PROSPEROUS, AND MORE STABLE, k V'E BELIEVE THAT THE PROPOSED NATIONAL CENTER FOR PRODUCTIVITY WOULD STRENGTHEN A NATIONAL EFFORT TO IMPROVE THE PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. K!E NEED SUCH AN INSTITUTION WITHIN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE GREAT VARIETY OF ACTIVITIES TO PROMOTE PRODUCTIVITY THAT GO ON WITHIN AND OUTSIDE THE GOVERNMENT. PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT NEEDS TO BE GIVEN GREATER VISIBILITY AND SUPPORT THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. THE CONCEPT OF A PRODUCTIVITY CENTER IS BY NO MEANS NEW., PRACTICALLY EVERY NATION WITH SOME INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY, FROM ICELAND TO MEW ZEALAND HAS A CENTER FOR PRODUCTIVITY, MANY WERE ESTABLISHED AFTER KORLD WAR II AT THE REQUEST OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND AS A CONDITION OF ASSISTANCE UNDER THE MARSHALL PLAN. I T IS GENERALLY AGREED THAT THESE CENTERS HAVE PLAYED A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE IN THE MODERNIZATION OF EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE ECONOMIES, THE CENTER, UNDER THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION, WOULD PERFORM SEVERAL TYPES OF FUNCTIONS, WHICH OUR EXPERIENCE TELLS US WILL BE HIGHLY USEFUL AND CONSTRUCTIVE, FIRST; IT WILL SERVE, WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT, AS AN ADVOCATE FOR POLICIES AND PROGRAMS WHICH IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY, IT HAS A PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY TO INSURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF / POLICIES FOR THE PRESIDENT, THE CONGRESS, AND THE NATION AS A WHOLE WHICH FOSTER PRODUCTIVITY, THERE IS A CLEAR NEED FOR A KNOWLEDGEABLE CENTRAL EODY WHICH WILL DRAW ATTENTION TO THIS ISSUE WHEN GOVERNMENT FORMULATES REGULATORY AND OTHER INDUSTRY RELATED PROGRAMS. A SECOND GENERAL FUNCTION, IS TO PROVIDE A FORUM IN WHICH REPRESENTATIVES OF LABOR, MANAGEMENT, STATE, LOCAL AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN EXCHANGE VIEWS ON THE PRODUCTIVITY ISSUES IN WHICH THEY HAVE A COMMON STAKE, THE COMMISSION IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A NATIONAL POLICY STATEMENT THROUGH THIS TYPE OF FORUM, THE DISCUSSION TO DATE HAS FOCUSED ON FIVE PRIMARY ISSUES: TECHNOLOGY, LABOR-MANAGEMENT RELATIONS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, EDUCATION AND TRAINING, AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION, THE EXCHANGE OF DIFFERENT VIEWPOINTS, IN A PROBLEM-SOLVING ATMOSPHERE, IS BOUND TO INCREASE UNDERSTANDING, LESSEN TENSIONS, AND CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE OPEN SOCIETY, THE CENTER, WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE FEDERAL CONCILIATION AND MEDIATION SERVICE, WILL CARRY FORWARD THE EFFORTS OF THE NCOP&WQ TO STIMULATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LABOR-MANAGEMENT COMMITTEES AT ALL LEVELS IN THE ECONOMY IN ORDER TO IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY AND THE QUALITY OF WORKING LIFE, IN THE STEEL 6 INDUSTRY, EXTREME ANTAGONISM HAS GIVEN WAY TO COOPERATION BETWEEN MANAGEMENT AND LABOR IN ONE GENERATION, TO THE MUTUAL BENEFIT OF BOTH PARTIES. PERHAPS THIS NON-ADVERSARY RELATIONSHIP CAN BE ADOPTED BY OTHERS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FUNCTIONS OF THE CENTER WILL BE TO HELP LABOR AND MANAGEMENT FIND MORE EFFECTIVE WAYS OF TAPPING THE KNOW-HOW AND COOPERATIVE SPIRIT OF WORKERS, FINALLY, THE CENTER WILL HAVE AN IMPORTANT EDUCATIONAL FUNCTION - TO PROVIDE INFORMATION AND PROMOTE PUBLIC UNDER- STANDING. WIDE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION ON SUCCESSFUL ' INCENTIVES, TECHNICAL INNOVATIONS, OR MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES WILL ENABLE THOSE ENTERPRISES OR GOVERNMENT AGENCIES OF ONLY AVERAGE EFFICIENCY TO KNOW OF AND ACHIEVE LEVELS OF PERFORMANCE EQUAL TO THE BEST KNOWN, THERE IS ALSO A NEED TO INCREASE THE AVERAGE CITIZEN'S RECOGNITION OF HIS/HER OWN STAKE IN PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT, A BETTER INFORMED PUBLIC COULD PROVIDE A BETTER CLIMATE FOR INNOVATION AND PROGRESS, THE BILL BENEFITS FROM THE EXPERIENCE OF THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON PRODUCTIVITY AND WORK QUALITY IN SPECIFIC FEATURES OF THE CENTER'S ORGANIZATION. FIRST,, IT PROVIDES FOR A TRIPARTITE COUNCIL, WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF LABOR, BUSINESS, AND FEDERAL, STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. IT RECOGNIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF SERVICE INDUSTRIES IN SELECTING MEMEERS. MENT THE ESTABLISH- OF AN EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE AND SUBCOMMITTEES OF THE COUNCIL IS A DESIRABLE FEATURE WHICH WILL INVOLVE COUNCIL MEMBERS IN GREATER DIRECTION AND CONTROL OF THE CENTER'S ACTIVITIES. SECOND, THE PROPOSED CENTER WILL BE AUTHORIZED TO ENTER INTO CONTRACTS BUT NOT GRANTS WITH ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, THIS PROVISION WILL SIMPLIFY ADMINISTRATION OF THE PROGRAM AND AVOID EXCESSIVE OVERHEAD. THIRD, THE CENTER WILL DRAW ON THE RESOURCES OF OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES, INDUSTRY, LABOR, AND ACADEMIC EXPERTS, ACTING ITSELF AS A CATALYST TO STIMULATE OTHERS TO TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY. THE FOCUS OF SUCH ACTIONS WILL BE SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE SELECTIVE CHANGES IN PRACTICES INVOLVE INDUSTRY-WIDE OR INTERINDUSTRY ISSUES THAT FALL OUTSIDE THE MANDATES OF EXISTING AGENCIES. THE COMMISSION, WITH ITS SMALL STAFF, HAS PURSUED THIS MODE OF OPERATION WITH NOTABLE SUCCESS. IN THE CASE OF THE "FRESH FROM THE WEST" UNIT TRAIN, THE COMMISSION'S STAFF BROUGHT TOGETHER, ON A VOLUNTARY BASIS, SHIPPERS, RAILROADS, 8 AND DISTRIBUTORS TO DISCUSS, IN A PROBLEM-SOLVING ENVIRONMENT, MUTUAL PROBLEMS OF FOOD TRANSPORTATION, LAST YEAR, THE COMMISSION STAFF PLAYED A SIMILAR ROLE IN INITIATING, WITH ICC APPROVAL, AN EXPERIMENTAL CLEARINGHOUSE TO REDUCE EMPTY RAIL CAR MOVEMENTS ON THREE RAILROADS. SAVINGS FROM SUCH A SYSTEM, IF INTRODUCED NATIONWIDE, COULD AMOUNT TO UPWARDS OF $100 MILLION IN ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS FOR CLASS I RAILROADS. PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT IS A QUESTION OF VITAL IMPORTANCE TO THE HEALTH OF OUR ECONOMY. YET THE TOPIC HAS NOT RECEIVED THE ATTENTION, CONTINUITY, AND SUPPORT NEEDED TO ACCOMPLISH THE RESULTS OUR NATION REQUIRES. THIS PHENOMENON HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE EXISTENCE OF THE PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION ITSELF AND WE ARE THEREFORE PLEASED THAT THE BILL BEFORE YOU PROVIDES A THREE-YEAR AUTHORIZATION FOR THE CENTER. TAINTIES THIS WILL AVOID THE UNCER- AND INABILITY TO PLAN THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE COMMISSION FROM ITS INCEPTION. IN SUMMARY, WE ENDORSE H.R, 6078 AS AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO A MORE STABLE AND MORE EFFECTIVE ECONOMY, AT THIS TIME IN OUR HISTORY, IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT STRENGTHEN ONE OF THE FOUNDATIONS OF OUR HISTORIC SUCCESS. PRODUCTIVITY WILL NOT BE IMPROVED BY GOVERNMENT FIAT OR EXHORTATION, BUT STRONG GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP IN COOPERATION WITH LABOR AND BUSINESS WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT AND LASTING PRODUCTIVITY GAINS. SUMMARY* OF FY 19 75 ACTIVITIES OF THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON PRODUCTIVITY AND WORK QUALITY Accomplishment for the National Commission on Productivity and Work Quality is measured by its ability to cause elements of an industry, economic sector or public service to engage themselves in an effective effort to improve their own performance. Given that catalytic role, it is important to realize two things: 1) individual successes are the result of many participants and credit belongs to all; and 2) individual successes represent milestones in a more important continuing effort towards improvement. During FY 1975 the Commission itself was successfully reorganized to allow for the effective participation of its membership in its purpose. An executive committee and functional area work groups of Commission members have worked both on directing the efforts of the staff and initiating activities on their own. The work of the Commission toward improving productivity is divided into four different categories: 1. Quality of Work - labor/management committees and behavioral science applications to the work place; 2. Public Sector - including Federal, State and local governments; 3. Private Sector - food distribution, health care, construction and transportation industries; and 4. Education. *Note - A more detailed description indicating the background and context in which projects were selected may be found in Part II of the Commission's 4th Annual Report. - 2 QUALITY OF WORK In response to its Congressional mandate, the NCOP and WQ is developing material of practical help in the establishment of labor/management committees. A booklet "Labor-Management Productivity Committees in American Industry" is , being printed and material is now being edited that will result in case studies of 8-10 public sector committees. On the plant/community level the NCOP and WQ has held five conferences in Illinois, Wisconsin and New York (with FMCS), with plant-level technical assistance follow-up by State Institutes of Labor Relations. At least a half-dozen sites will be setting up committees aided by the knowledge these conferences provided. Additionally, the results of these meetings are being consolidated into a publication "Pointers for Labor-Management Committees" which should go a long way in overcoming obstacles to the formation of these committees throughout the Nation. In the behavioral science field the Commission is evaluating the impact of two types of increasingly popular programs on productivity for use by managers and labor leaders. - A participatory incentive plan in a large corporation (DeSoto Paint Corporation). - Flexible working hours in a service industry (First National Bank of Boston). Work (in cooperation with DOL) is being done to produce guides for the appropriate application of behavioral science techniques and a report will be issued on management actions taken in response to attitude surveys of 7,500 workers in five Federal agencies (with CSC). - 3 - at PUBLIC SECTOR In the public sector the NCOP and WQ has supported and encouraged the efforts of the OMB, CSC, and GAO to measure and enhance Federal Government productivity and is also active in a variety of projects designed for productivity improvement in state and local governments. For Elected Officials - a guide entitled "So, Mr. Mayor, You Want to Improve Productivity" has been published and was the basis for a series of meetings with top elected officials throughout the country. Similar publications for city and county elected officials are in process, as well as a booklet on productivity improvement in state government for legislators. For management - a program to launch 20 cities into productivity improvement programs with development of follow-up guidance during the initial months of effort. - A series of five Productivity Workshops were held for state and local officials to facilitate the transfer of improved methods between jursidictions. Training materials, now scheduled for field testing will, if successful, be provided for internal instruction in the factors of productivity. Incentives - a comprehensive report updating an earlier survey of personnel incentives used by public administrators is complete and scheduled for early publication. It is hoped that awareness of existing programs will stimulate further development of this topic. The successful Solid Waste and Police productivity projects are being followed by a similar effort in government inspections with draft guides for local managers expected by the end of June. Also, in the Police sector, a major conference on productivity improvement techniques was recently held (with the Police Foundation) for 200 police chiefs and mayors from across the country. - 4 PRIVATE SECTOR In the private sector the NCOP and WQ is concentrating its activity in the fields of food distribution, health care, construction and transportation. In food distribution the following projects are in progress: - Work with CWPS to encourage backhaul through a pamphlet on benefits and meetings with manufacturers, FTC and distributors; Investigation of consolidated delivery systems costs and benefits to participants (with Department of Agriculture); Enlistment of industry and Department of Commerce support for a study of costs and benefits of modularized system; Developing awareness of technological needs by retailers through holding conferences at M.I.T. and the University of Southern California; and Stimulating the industry toward development of orderly manpower adjustment programs. In health care the following projects have been undertaken to contribute to increased productivity: - Over 100 practitioners identified opportunities to increase productivity throughout the industry; - A nationwide education program on productivity for hospital administrators; - Development of a statewide productivity measurement system for national implementation; - Pooling of expertise of industry and health leaders in one state to pursue health care productivity improvement opportunities; vl Removal of IRS barriers to hospital employee incentive programs; and Implementation of an in-hospital productivity improvement program. Problems of productivity in the construction industry are being approached by: A conference held with leading labor/management officials on common problems of productivity measurement; A report on new labor management initiatives to improve productivity; and A labor/management subcommittee to deal with improvements in collective bargaining, productivity, and manpower issues. In transportation the NCOP and WQ has identified freight car utilization as a central issue in the fiscal viability of the railroad industry as well as in the capacity to provide the increased service required by the American economy. Accordingly, work on the interchangeability of freight cars has resulted in a "clearinghouse" experiment designed to eliminate excessive movement of empty cars. With three cooperating railroads, this experiment shows substantial direct operating savings, reduced capital investment and significantly better service to shippers. To encourage efficient capital investment practices, the NCOP and WQ is encouraging railroad and automobile representatives to confer and agree on common designs as new rail cars are developed for shipment of autos. Work is also under way on applications of both new and existing equipment for integrated shipments in a transcontinental intermodal food distribution service. - 6 The dedicated train concept as the Commission applied it in the "Fresh from the West" unit train service is proving the refrigerator car cycle time can be cut by 30%—the equivalent of 900 new cars or a $40 million investment—with far better service to the consumer. The staff is working with the railroads and additional industries to increase the application of this method of train operation. / EDUCATION To continue its efforts in technical education, the Commission maintains a series of publications of value to those working on productivity programs. These include such studies as: - "The Role of Productivity in Controlling Inflation." - Productivity centers in other countries— a comparison of objectives, programs and background. - Productivity trends and differences at the plant level: Casebook on Company Productivity Programs with Emphasis Upon How the Companies Got Started ° Analysis of Factors Affecting Interplant Differences in Productivity in Selected Industries - "Public Attitudes on Work-Related Matters." Altogether, the Commission has completed 18 publications which have been distributed to kev managers, government officials and others throughout S r i o n ^ y - A n / d d i t i ° n a l 12 publications are in various stages of completion. Pp^rl?8,00^881011 alS ° WOrks actively with other -TE L^ The Public Awareness program, in cooperation with the Advertising Council, Inc., launched in the fall of 1973, continues in operation. Using the themes "Pride in Work" and "Productivity, the Key to Your Future" it is estimated to have made over 200 million contacts with the public Materials have been requested and used by over: 2,500 Radio Stations 1,000 TV Stations 1,000 Newspapers 600 Magazines 100,000 Trains and Buses 3,500 Billboards v» I'm delighted to be here today. I'm a native New Mexican, but I have many, many ties to Oklahoma, and I come to your state as often as I can find a decent excuse. I am related by blood to the Hendersons and Dunns of the Cushing, Stillwater, and Yale area. "Rose of the Cimarron" was my great aunt, who believed in women's rights, and some of women's wrongs as well, according to history. Today, I'm proud to be kissing kin to dozens and dozens of Oklahomans, including my own mother who is staying with relatives in Yale. I am also related, by a 27-year marriage, to Ed Neff, who lived in Oklahoma City as a teenager, graduated from Classen High School, and went to O.U. for two years. After wartime service, my future husband joined his parents in Albuquerque, where he finished his bachelor's degree at the University of New Mexico and I finished his bachelor's days by marrying him on graduation. So you see I think Oklahoma is more than O.K. — it's super in the best way in the world. Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff before the Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 2, 1975. The meaning of "super" is big. And today, I'd like to talk about one of the biggest things in our lives — our Big Government and its big spending habits, big labor force and Big Daddy approach to business. The "Big Daddy" approach piles regulation upon regulation and red tape on red tape. This costs the consumer billions of dollars. In the auto industry, for example, federal regulations added $320 to the price of a 1974 car. And to compute another cost, it's estimated that individuals and corporations spend about 13 0 million manhours a year filling out government forms, *— excluding tax forms. As for a big labor force, it is rather thoughtprovoking that government at all levels -- local, state and federal -- has more personnel working for it than the auto industry, the steel industry,and all other durable goods industries combined. But to most of us, the prime illustration of big government is probably its enormous spending habits. Our taxes, large as they are, do not take care of all bills. So, let's look in more detail at government's financial commitments. For most of the nation's history, our annual budget was well under $100 billion. In 1962, we went past that mark; in 1971 we broke the $200 billion mark and this year we reached a record $300 billion a year. In 1,-^ the fiscal year beginning this July, we are likely to reach and perhaps exceed a $365 billion budget. In other words, your government will be spending a billion dollars a day, each and every day of the year, to pay its bills. That's one billion dollars a day — a sum almost impossible to imagine. If a man were given a thousand dollars to spend every day of every year of every century beginning with the birth of Christ and continuing to this week, he and his heirs in over 19 centuries would not be able to spend one billion dollars. Yet we will be spending that much in one day, every day of this upcoming fiscal year. Government spending at all levels of government now takes a'third of the total GNP. If recent trends continue, it will consume some 60 percent by the year 2,000. When local, state and federal governments grow so large you give up half of your earnings to pay its bills, then you have surrendered more than money. You have surrendered part of your freedom as well. And I do not believe that by giving up our freedom, we are enlarging the freedoms of those supported by our taxes. All of us must help less fortunate Americans: the sick, the old, those unable to work. But the present welf system is full of inequities. It should be overhauled to reward those willing to work and genuinely help those unable to be employed. in The measure of a socially compassionate person is not how much of the taxpayer's money he is willing to transfer from those who work to those who don't. Most people in positions of public trust are concerned for the welfare of their fellow Americans. The real question is not who cares the most, but how can we combine a prosperous economy and a minimum amount of human hardship without sacrificing our freedoms or seriously harming our total economic system. I have criticized Big Government, and you may wonder how I reconcile my feelings about this with my position as th6~United States Treasurer. Well, one reason I can do this is because my job as Treasurer includes the directorship of the United States Savings Bonds Division. And I like the Savings Bonds Program for at least three reasons. It is not Big Government. It is good for America. And it isi good for Americans. U.S. Savings Bonds are the nongovernmental government program, because 97 percent of people working in the program are unpaid volunteers. Even our advertising program is donated by the National Ad Council. And I feel right at home with volunteers because I was one myse for so many many years. In fact, I was selling War Bonds way back, several wars ago, in my adolescence. I have been aware of the personal advantages of Savings Bonds for many years. They are safe, secure, an easy way to save. They pay a competitive six percent interest. And there are tax advantages which can raise the effective interest rate even higher. Further, U.S. Savings Bonds are good for the country. About 23 percent of the total public debt in private hands is in the form of U.S. Savings Bonds. This 23 percent is far and away the most stable part of the debt, because E and H Bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for more than six years. This compares ,to less than 3 years, on the average, for other marketable instruments. This long-term stability is important for two reasons. First, when the holding time decreases, any debt becomes more liquid, and this can be inflationary. And second, the job of refinancing a rapidly maturing national debt is difficult and expensive. So, Savings Bonds are good for America and good for Americans. Last year we had the highest sales since World War Two. For the first four months of this year, sales are even higher. We Americans know a good thing when we see it, and Savings Bonds are good in many, many ways. Now, if I may jump back into something not so good, rv) o let's look more closely at the upcoming Federal budget deficits. Our national budget has been in the red 14 out of the past 15 years. leap. But this year there will be a quantum Depending on which bills are passed, it is pos- sible, even probable, that our deficit for the coming fiscal year alone could exceed $80 billion. For the first time, the government will borrow money that will not be paid back until the 21st century. These figures are enormous, but they do not represent the outer limits of what may actually develop. They do not include^ money for many of the legislative proposals now under considerations in every congressional committee. We^ are hopeful that the new Congressional budget system may help to alter this. As you know, it is Congress that more or less sets federal fiscal policy, in terms of taxes and total spending. Last year, Congress passed an act setting up new committees on the budget in both the House and Senate, along with a Congressional Budget Office to serve the committees. The act also changed the starting date of the federal fiscal year from July to October, beginning in 197 6. Under the old system in Congress, members could vote to spend money without having to vote explicitly for any deficits created by their new bills. Under the new system, the deficits resulting from the bills will at least be E3/ placed out in the open. Then Congress can either cut back on the spending bills or Congressmen can go on record favoring the higher spending total and the higher deficit it entails. When a campaigning Congressman points to his record, we can see that record in dollars and cents. I will add the obvious point that the United States Treasury Department must raise money for the government, but Treasury does not choose how that money is spent nor does it spend the money it raises, except for its own allotment. Being a financier is a big enough problem] Someone facetiously remarked once that the biblical Noah was our first financier. He floated a limited company when alJL the rest of the world was in liquidation. I'm tempted to add that he floated alone (a loan), but of course we know he took all of those animals with him. To return to reality, the Treasury Department will probably have to borrow around $41 billion for the first six months of calendar year 1975 alone. 13 9 The Treasury Department is well aware that borrowing very large sums of money may cause strains in the private financial markets. Although financial conditions normally ease during a recession, this time there may be difficulty financing our current large federal deficits for several reasons. For one, since the current recession came after a considerable period of inflation, private financing demands are heavier than usual. Further, state and local governments have had their tax receipts reduced by the recession, and they will need to borrow substantial sums. The Treasury and Federally-sponsored agencies will * come into the capital markets for more net funds, both in absolute terms and in relation to the size of the economy, then have ever been borrowed in the capital markets in any single year by the public and private sectors combined. And since Federal requirements for money will be met first, this may put the crunch in the private sector. Governments at all levels — local, state and Federal — will borrow an estimated 8 0 to 85 percent of new funds available this year, leaving less than one dollar out of every five for investment in private enterprise. Several possibilities may occur. An unhealthy compe- tition between the government and private borrowers might develop for capital funds. Or the Federal Reserve could accommodate these enormous borrowing requirements by -9- :?E? creating a more rapid growth in money and credit. In our view, this latter step could mean a re-accelerated inflation followed by a new recession. Because our economy is currently depressed, the capital market might be able to absorb the combined needs of government and the private sector this year, and then face the real crunch next year, when the economy has gathered steam and the private sector is looking for more money. Thus, if runaway Federal spending programs, com- bined with permanent tax cuts^become a way of life in America — and the trend has been this way -- then we could be in for~a lot of future economic trouble in the form of an unstable economy and accelerated inflation. Now, to change the subject somewhat, a number of people have asked me, "How strong is the American dollar internationally?" And, since my name is on your dollar, I have a very personal interest in this question. The Treasury's view is that the only long range way to maintain a strong dollar is to put our own economic house in order. With that caveat, we believe the future dollar prospects are good for several reasons. First, the U.S. lead in reducing interest rates -which weakened the dollar last fall -- may be ending. As the recession bottoms out, incentives for interestsensitive flows could be reversed by a further change in the international interest rate differentials. Second, while oil producers are diversifying their enormous investments, the United States' economy will continue to receive a very significant share of these investments. And finally, our competitive position in world markets remain strong. Bad as our inflation is, it is still better than that of many other countries. Further, oil imports to the United States dropped sharply in March, for the second consecutive month, and we posted a surplus in our balance of trade. Specifically, March exports exceeded imports by $1.38 billion. So, save your Yankee dollars -- the economy of the South,^North, East and West will rise again. And as it does, we hope that inflation will fall. Some people profess to find inflation a mystery. But there's nothing mysterious about it. In the last ten years: — We fought a war in Asia and charged it. — We had severe shocks to our economy due to high oil prices, high food prices and worldwide crop failures. — And for years we followed some unsound monetary and fiscal policies. That is the fundamental reason. Our government has spent beyond its resources for at least a decade. And the government that did this was you and me, through our Congressmen and other officials. 13< We love what our spending programs bought us, but we hate the morning-after bills that now stare us in the face. There are heartening signs that the rate of inflation is slowing down. Consumer prices are not climbing as fast; the prime lending rate has fallen; funds are coming back to thrift institutions and so on. Nevertheless, the twin spectres of inflation and recession remain as monsters in our midst. Our big problem today is to balance the need to fight recession against the need to keep inflation under control. The Administration's tax rebate is one major recession-fighter. We' prefer this to direct government spending for two reasons. First, tax rebate money going directly to you will put more money, faster, into the nation's economic bloodstream. You and I will spend the money this year. Even the dollars that we bank will eventually get out to the home building and other industries. And second, tax-rebate spending by individuals will stimulate the private sector of our economy. Since the great majority of all jobs are there, that's where our efforts should be concentrated. u ly Now, let's look more specifically at how inflation and recession affect investment and production. Businesses, like people, were hurt this past year. Outmoded accounting practices and inflation sometimes created the illusion of high business profits, but real after-tax profits have dropped 50 percent since 1965. I have seen figures which indicate that real retained earnings after dividends of nonfinancial corporations amounted to only $2.8 billion in 1973, compared to $18.9 billion in 1966. The figures for 1974 are even worse, and real retained earnings will probably show a deficit this year. When profits are poor, you have dried up a critical source"of capital investment. duction. This in turn affects pro- A recent Department of Treasury study shows that U.S. business ranks among the lowest in the industrialized world for investments and real economic growth. The study also notes that low investment has "limited job opportunities in the sense that, had the growth of plant and equipment exceeded that of the labor force, more jobs would have been required to utilize that increased capacity." The Administration will help business attract new investment capital by proposing tax reform legislation to offer additional incentives for savings and investment. Another way the Federal government can help would be to bring its budget into balance when the economy is -13- n prosperous. This will provide additional funds for investment in the private sector. In the long run, we must shift our national economic policy towards more savings and investment and towards less government spending. We have lived too long upon the momentum of past economic growth. Now, that future we were warned about some years ago has arrived. Any talk of the future reminds me of one of my own personal concerns. And if what I'm about to say seems obvious, ladies and gentlemen, I apologize, but I've found that it is not obvious to many people. And that is the need for Americans to understand their own economic system. We are all consumers. It's simplistic to say the consumer is the key to our economic recovery, because he or she must buy more goods. But before Mr. and Mrs. America can go shopping, they must have jobs with enough earning power to buy, thus making the consumer either a worker or a businessman-worker, producing the goods and services customers will buy. The worker needs a job; the businessman needs other workers; and both need the consumer, who in turn is the worker or businessman, and so forth. The government provides various cushions for the worker and businessman, and offers a helping hand to the consumer through, for example, the current tax rebates* -14- 73 % » This illustrates, very simply, the interdependencies of the free enterprise system. But I suspect even this outline is not well understood. Everyone knows part of the story. We all know the consumer wants to keep down prices on goods and services. We know that workers and labor unions very legitimately desire higher wages, job retention, and more fringe benefits. This viewpoint is sympathetically presented — often on page one. But where is the third viewpoint -- that of the businessman? Who gives John Q. Public, and his children, . an informed or sympathetic insight into what the businessman thinks or expects, and what his problems are? You can look a long time before you'll find a friendly, front-page story about the problems,or low profitsyof corporations. These problems are complex -- hard to understand -- so we shrug and pass them by. One result is that most adults, in an opinion poll, thought corporations reaped profits of about 28 percent. In reality, the net return on sales averages 5 percent. I became aware of this problem about 10 years ago. My son and daughter were teenagers, and I used to talk before teenage groups in different schools. I would ask classes how much profit they thought businessmen made. Mind you, these were bright kids, yours and mine, but - 1 5 - they thought the businessman's profits ran between 40 to 50 cents on the dollar. They all but called me a liar when I explained the facts. Economic theories are certainly complex. Baron Rothschild once said he had met only two people in the whole world who understood gold — and they disagreed. Nevertheless, there's something wrong with our educational system, or with us as parents, when our children know so little about the economic system which provides them with the highest living standard of any major country in the world. I suggest we would have «— better citizens, and better public servants, if our children understood the basics of their own economy. I"*m delighted with what Oklahoma has done in this area. Last year your legislature passed an Economic Education Act which requires all state schools to include economics in their curriculum. And I know that many businessmen in Oklahoma City volunteer their time as resource people in the schools, while civic organizations donate money for in-service training courses. I understand that Liberty National Bank is especially active. They donate thousands of dollars in awards to enterprising teachers of economic education and to young entrepreneurs in Oklahoma so they can demonstrate the feasibility of their own ideas by starting their own businesses. That's super, and I hope the other 4 9 states follow the lead of your state. Now, for our last few minutes together, let's leave economics and look at the everyday world outside our windows — the world where men and women are born, grow up, work, fall in love, marry, have children and go about the concerns and activities of people everywhere in the world. For Americans, our world is a pretty special place. We have our big, beautiful country. Our farmlands, forests, mountains, cities and seacoasts that stretch from Hawaii to New York. We have 213 million people whose ancestors came from everywhere in the world. We have the special ideas that produced a new nation 199 ye&rs ago, and that guide us today. And we have free speech; a free press; the freedom to accept new challenges, as I did when I accepted my present job; and our bloodied but not beaten free enterprise system. Under our free enterprise system, the real purchasing power of the average American family has doubled in the last 25 years. During the same time, working conditions improved for most Americans. And, in the last 15 years alone, the number of our citizens going to college has doubled. Further, our political and economic system is enormously resilient. Consider the shocks it underwent this Past year. -17- 9^ . Since last May — We have had a new president and a vice-president — by appointive means, which is also new. — We have lived through the highest rate of inflation in our peacetime history. — We have had the most severe recession in 25 years. — And some $100 billion of the world's wealth has been transferred from oil-consuming nations to oil producing nations. While these changes were occuring, some people renamed our American Ship of State the Titanic, and announced we were all halfway under water and sinking fast. That wasn't true, and it won't be true. The Ship of State still sails; the flag still flies; the sky hasn't fallen, and most of us even continue to live and love and fight with our own husbands and wives. Further, our free enterprise system still functions, and the laws of supply and demand still operate. The fact that it functions so well despite the problems is a tribute to its basic strength. Perhaps it is time to start doubting our doubter's more and our system less. We will always have problems. But that does not alter the fact that we have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in material goods. It is time now to move beyond the pessimism that paralyzes, into action that creates. For a long time we have told each other what's wrong with society. Now it is time to speak to the good in each other. But we need to do more than speak — we need to act. As parents, we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace, and the legitimacy of profit. As business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually servihg as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers. As citizens, we must demand that the news media make some effort to understand our economic system and to report the third side of our free-enterprise story. As voters, we must make certain that our elected officials — from D.C. to City Hall — understand that good economics is good politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years as a going, growing nation. Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping our society. Thank you. /; Department of theTREMURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 Ui Q TELEPHONE W04-2041 /789 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MAY 5, 1975 FORMER TREASURY SECRETARY SHULTZ RECEIVES ALEXANDER HAMILTON AWARD Former Treasury Secretary George P. Shultz today received the Alexander Hamilton Award from Treasury Secretary William E. Simon. Presented for outstanding and unusual leadership in the work of the Treasury, the Hamilton Award, which includes a gold medal, is confered on persons designated by the Secretary only. It is the Department's highest award. The citation noted that Shultz as Secretary "admirably carried forward the traditions of that office and, indeed, raised its standards of dedication and professional excellence to unsurpassed new heights." The citation praised his domestic accomplishments and said "Internationally, his remarkable negotiating skills and ability to work closely with leaders of every race helped the nations of the world adopt a system of more flexible exchange rates and to dismantle many of the trade barriers that existed between them." Shultz received the award on the occasion of the formal unveiling of his oil portrait as the 62nd Secretary of the Treasury. It was painted by Everett Raymond Kinstler whose works may be found in many private and public collections including the New York City Metropolitan Museum of Art. The Shultz portrait will be hung in the Treasury building along with *-hose of other former Secretaries. Department of theTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 5, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.8 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for $2.8 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on May 8, 1975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing August 7, 1975 Price High Low Average Discount Rate 98.661 98.641 98.646 5.297% 5.376% 5.356% Investment Rate 1/ 5.46% 5.54% 5.52% 26-week bills maturing November 6, 1975 Price 97.124 97.097 97.106 Discount Rate a/ 5.689% 5.742% 5.724% Investment Rate 1/ 5.95% 6.01% 5.99% a/ Excepting two tenders totaling $800,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received 34,315,000 $ Boston ,558,635,000 New York 27,450,000 Philadelphia 75,940,000 Cleveland 29,490,000 Richmond 38,245,000 Atlanta 250,475,000 Chicago 56,750,000 St. Louis 25,420,000 Minneapolis 49,800,000 Kansas City 25,035,000 Dallas San Francisco 238,425,000 TOTALS$4>409>980,000 Accepted $ 24,315,000 2,237,230,000 27,140,000 35,840,000 23,935,000 36,675,000 145,975,000 44,895,000 25,320,000 38,855,000 22,035,000 138,110,000 Received Accepted 8,155,000 $ 18,155,000 $ 2,482,190,000 4,258,790,000 7,950,000 8,365,000 41,320,000 106,670,000 25,180,000 46,720,000 17,250,000 59,755,000 28,525,000 201,715,000 23,055,000 75,425,000 5,925,000 14,925,000 17,955,000 23,165,000 8,375,000 9,375,000 136,490,000 346,690,000 $2,800,325,000 b/ $5,169,750,000 $2,802,370,000 c/ b/ Includes $376,410,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. —' — Includes $176,460,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. Hello, I'm delighted to he with you today. I like the subjects I've been asked to talk about -which are women and the economy. That's a nice, wide variety. Variety is what women are all about. And "all about" is where we are these days. We are mopping kitchen floors, raising families, living in communes, robbing banks, trying for the executive suite, and in general being as good, bad, smart, silly and cantankerous as men. Fifty percent of women between 18 and 65 are currently working. We're as well educated as men but, on the average, we earn only three-fifth's of a man's salary. There are many reasons for this and one -the main reason — is that many women work only on a part-time basis. For many women, jobs are secondary to their careers as wives and mothers. Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, League of Republican Women, Washington, D.C. on May 5, 1975. Politics is one area that attracts women. Mrs. Ella Grasso is now Connecticut's governor while Mary Ann Krupsak is the Lieutenant Governor of New York. Five new women entered Congress this year, to join the dozen already there. A good friend of all of ours, Mary Louise Smith, is the first woman chairman of the Republican National Committeec And a few weeks ago, I attended a reception honoring Mrs. Carla Hills, our new Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and the third woman cabinet officer in history. In other fields, American women are scoring other gains. Congress outlawed credit discrimination based on sex last year. The bank of America settled a clacc action suit on behalf of its female employees, which will mean about $10 million in additional income to women. And in education, the number of women students in medical schools is double what it was three years ago. I've been talking about working women -- and we automatically think of paid jobs. But I'd like to put in a good word for volunteers. They are terribly important to our society. Some 7 0 million people have volunteer jobs, and they contribute an estimated $50 billion a year to America's "gross national product." I am a wife, mother and dedicated believer in the value of volunteers. For the first quarter century of my adult life, I volunteered for everything from the PTA to the GOP. I was privileged to learn many techniques and skills this way, because a willing volunteer can often work with top people. I personally feel my route to a career was via the way of the volunteer. Today, I work full-time as the United States Treasurer and as National Director of the Savings Bonds Division. I am heartened to know that 97 percent of the people who help sell bonds are volunteers. I suspect — I hope — that some of you are among those workers in our program. Our National Savings Bonds goal for 197 5 is 6.8 billion dollars in bond sales, and at least 2.4 million new or increased savers. Here in Metro Washington, we had total sales last year of about 155 million dollars. This was more than a quarter million dollars above our 1974 goal. Our goal this year is a little more than 161 million dollars. I'm especially pleased about this Washington goal, because in just the last 8 years, it has gone up more than 250 percent. I'm happy to toll you that in our United States Savings Bonds program we have leadership from the top. I was privileged to visit with President Gerald Ford several weeks ago. He is a regular Savings Bonds buyer, and he told me that this year he is increasing his payroll deduction. I certainly don't intend to tell you all the advantages of Savings Bonds today. You probably already know what they are. Bonds are a safe, convenient, painless way to save, with a very attractive 6 percent interest rate. A banker friend of mine has added up figures which show that over the last 5 years $7 5 invested monthly in bonds is worth more today than the same amount invested in stocks on the Moody's Industrial Index. Bonds also have tax advantages which can increase that 6 percent rate substantially. Finally, Savings Bonds help the nation. They put more of the Federal debt into the hands of long term savers. They remain outstanding, on the average, for six years, while other marketable instruments turn over in three years or less. Almost a quarter of our publicly held national debt is in the form of Savings Bonds. So, our Bonds are good for America and good for Americans. Sales of series E and H bonds were at a 29-year high in 1974. And, so far this year, sales are even higher. In this period of inflation and recession, the proven performance of these United States Savings Bonds is very appealing. Let's talk a little more about inflation and recession, and some of the other shocks that have hit our economy this past year. Since last May — 5 -- - W([ — We have experienced the highest rate of inflation in our peacetime history. — Our economy is in the worst slump in years. — Oil prices have quadrupled. — And $100 million of the world's wealth has been transferred to a small bank of. developing nations. These stories all made the headlines. story —• equally as important — did not. But another And that is the story of how well our economic system has operated under conditions of extraordinary stress. Throughout 1974, the prophets of doom announced that our Ship of State was halfway under water and sinking fast. That l s n > t true and it won; t be true. alive and well. America is The Ship of State sails; the flag still flies and most of us still live and love and fight with our husbands. Let's look at the record of what the doubters have predicted, and then let's see what actually happened. — Prices on foreign oil jumped in 1974, and it was said that the international financial system might collapse, as massive sums of money were transferred. In fact, the financial institutions responded with considerable skill. disbursed. OPEC funds were rather widely And the oil consuming nations are presently working on new international agreements for future emergencies. Further, new oil discoveries outside of the OPEC nations, and new production in the United States and elsewhere will eventually result in lowered prices. As Treasury Secretary William Simon says, it's a question of when, not if. For another example of how the sky didn't fall, let's look at gold sales. Late last year, Americans were allowed to buy gold for the first time in decades. The predictions were that we were in for a great new gold rush. This did not occur. When I checked a few weeks ago, gold was selling below the quoted prices of December 30. For a final excuujjle, let's consider the fczrz cf some people that we are heading into another Great Depression. Of course, we've had a recession, but it did not come close to the conditions of the 1930fs. Unemployment figures in 1975 are only about a third of the 1930!s figures, and there are such safety nets as Social Security, medicare, unemployment payments, and fcod stamps. Treasury Secretary William Simon believes the present economic slide will bottom out during the middle of this year. As he put it the other day, he sees"patches of blue in a gray, wintry sky." Our free enterprise system still functions, and the laws of supply and demand still work. But, too often 9] ^ ' it seems to me, we tend to doubt our institutions and not our doubters. Since I am a strong advocate of the free enterprise system, people sometimes ask me, "If this system works so well, why is there such a high rate of inflation and unemployment?" There are several reasons. We fought a war in Viet Nam and charged it. We sustained worId-wide crop failures. We suffered an oil embargo, and oil prices today are high. But more fundamentally, we have for years abused our economic system. The fact that it still functions so well is a great tribute to its basic strength. Our growing Federal government puts enormous demands on the economy. The proliferation of government regulations burdens both business and the consumer. Federal regulations, for example, added $320 to the price of a 1974 c?r. And, our national habits of encouraging consumption and federal spending at the cost of savings and investment is a very serious concern. Capital investment in the United States in recent years has been the lcvest of any industrial nation in the free world. Secretary Sir.cn and other government officials :re working to turn some of these trends around. They feel, and I agree, that -8- u — We must restore greater discipline to our v5 financial affairs. — We must lighten the hand of government in many areas. — And we must encourage savings, investment and capital formation. Finally, we must turn away from the doomsayers. Despite our problems, we have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in material goods. Now we need to speak to the good in each other. But we need to do more than speak -- we need to act. As parents, we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace, and the legitimacy of profit. As business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually serving as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers.. As citizens, we must demand that the news media make some effort to understand our economic system. As Republicans we must make certain we do our work well. We must see that the voting public has a choice of candidates on election day. We must convince good people to run for office. We must then support them with -9our money, our volunteer time and efforts. V7e must conduct vigorous and effective registration'campaigns, voter preference polls, get-out-the vote campaigns and ballot security schools. Then after the elections are over, wTe must make certain our elected officials understand that good economics is good politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years of history. Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping society. Thank you. Department oftheTREASURY WASHINGTON. DC. 20220 ' ' : TELEPHONE W04-2041 l^ I ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE AMERICAN MINING CONGRESS PITYSBURGH. PENNSYLVANIA, MAY 5, 1975 MR. OVERTON, DISTINGUISHED DELEGATES TO THIS SPECIAL CONFERENCE OF TE AMERICAN MINING CONGRESS, AND LADIES AND GENTLEMEN; IT IS A GENUINE PLEASURE TO APPEAR BEFORE YOU HERE IN PITTSBURGH TODAY AND TO BRING YOU THE WARMEST GREETINGS OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. DURING THE TWO-AND-ONE-HALF YEARS THAT I HAVE, SERVED IN WASHINGTON, I HAVE HAD THE PRIVILEGE OF WORKING CLOSELY WITH LEADERS OF YOUR INDUSTRY ON MANY OCCASIONS. EACH TIME I AM REMINDED OF THE ENORMOUS CONTRIBUTIONS THAT THE COAL INDUSTRY HAS MADE TO OUR NATION'S GROWTH AND OF THE RICH PROMISE THAT IT HOLDS FOR THE FUTURE. THE HUGE COAL RESERVES OF THIS COUNTRY ARE A COMMANDING NATIONAL ASSET NOT ONLY HERE AT HOME BUT IN OUR RELATIONS ABROAD, AND I BELIEVE — AS DO YOU -- THAT WE - 2MUST BE WILLING TO DEVELOP THOSE RESERVES TO MEET THE ENERGY NEEDS OF THE FUTURE. AND OVER THESE LAST FEW YEARS, AS I HAVE COME TO KNOW MANY OF YOU PERSONALLY, I MUST SAY THAT I HAVE ALSO FOUND THAT YOUR INDUSTRY IS CAPTAINED BY MEN OF STRENGTH AND VISION — MEN OF THE ARENA WHO HAVE BATTLED WITH THE HARD REALITIES OF LIFE AND HAVE LEARNED TO SHAPE THOSE REALITIES TO SERVE A HIGHER GOOD. SO I COME BEFORE YOU TODAY FULLY APPRECIATIVE OF THE PLACE THAT YOU AND YOUR INDUSTRY OCCUPY WITHIN OUR NATION. WHEN I ACCEPTED YOUR KIND INVITATION TO SPEAK HERE, ALLEN OVERTON SUGGESTED THAT SINCE FRANK ZARB WOULD ALSO BE ADDRESSING THIS AUDIENCE, I MIGHT DIRECT MY REMARKS PRIMARILY TOWARD THE PROBLEMS OF THE ECONOMY. I WILL BE HAPPY TO DO so, RECOGNIZING,>OF COURSE, THAT OUR ECONOMIC FORTUNES ARE INEXTRICABLY BOUND TO THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR ENERGY RESOURCES. NEARING THE END OF THE RECESSION A WEEK AGO TODAY I RETURNED FROM AN EXTENDED TRIP ARQUND THE WORLD THAT ENABLED ME TO SPEAK WITH LEADERS OF MANY DIFFERENT NATIONS ON ECONOMIC ISSUES. ONE OF THOSE MEETINGS WAS IN PARIS WHERE I CONFERRED WITH THE FINANCE MINISTERS FROM WESTERN EUROPE AND JAPAN ~ THE OECD NATIONS. I CAN REPORT TO YOU TODAY THAT THERE WAS WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT AMONG THOSE MINISTERS THAT THE WESTERN WORLD IS NEARING THE END OF THE CURRENT RECESSIONARY CYCLE. FORTUNATELY, EVERY RECESSION SOWS THE SEEDS OF ITS OWN RECOVERY, AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, THERE ARE SOLID GROUNDS FOR BELIEVING THAT THE WORST PART OF THE ECONOMIC SLIDE MAY ALREADY BE BEHIND US: OF SPECIAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS THE RECORD REDUCTION IN INVENTORY HOLDINGS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR. FIGURES RELEASED LAST WEEK INDICATED THAT THE INVENTORY -nLIQUIDATION IN MARCH WAS EVEN GREATER THAN FIRST ESTIMATED. y THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS LIQUIDATION PROCESS IS THAT SALES ARE* MOVING AHEAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN PRODUCTION. As THAT CONTINUES, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND. AND AS THAT HAPPENS, OF COURSE, WE WILL BE ENTERING UPON THE RECOVERY. THE INVENTORY LIQUIDATION REFLECTS A TURN AROUND IN RETAIL SALES. EVEN APART FROM THE INFLUENCE OF PRICE REBATES ON AUTO SALES, RETAIL SALES ROSE BY A TOTAL OF 3% PERCENT IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR AND APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED A BIT FURTHER IN APRIL. WE CAN ALSO DRAW ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE EMPLOYMENT FIGURES RELEASED ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT '« ROSE TO 8.9 PERCENT, THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE POST-WAR PERIOD, THE INCREASE WAS A SMALL ONE AND — MORE IMPORTANTLY " APRIL ALSO BROUGHT THE FIRST INCREASE IN OVERALL EMPLOYMENT -5 - -} *5"£ IN HALF A YEAR. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LEVELING OFF IN THE RATE OF JOB LAYOFFS, WHICH HAS A CRUCIAL IMPACT NOT ONLY ON UNEMPLOYMENT BUT ALSO UPON PUBLIC CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER SIGNS WHICH ARE ALSO POINTING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION: — INFLATION HAS COME DOWN FASTER AND FURTHER THAN ANYONE FIRST ESTIMATED, SO THAT BY THE END OF THIS YEAR, THE OVERALL RATE OF INFLATION SHOULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6-7 PERCENT. — As MONETARY POLICY HAS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE AND INFLATION HAS SUBSIDED, SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES HAVE FALLEN AND FUNDS HAVE BEGUN FLOWING BACK INTO THE THRIFT INSTITUTIONS. THIS SETS THE NECESSARY PRECONDITION FOR AN UPTURN IN HOUSING. — IN ADDITION, CONDITIONS IN THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY HAVE BEGUN TO STABILIZE. - 6— SURVEYS ALSO INDICATE AN UPTURN IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, WHICH HAS BEEN AT RECORD LOWS. * — THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A DEFINITE AIR OF OPTIMISM IN THE STOCK MARKET, WHERE THE DOW JONES HAS RISEN BY MORE THAN A THIRD SINCE ITS LOW POINT IN 1974. MOREOVER, THE GOVERNMENT IN WASHINGTON IS ALSO TAKING POSITIVE STEPS TO ASSIST THE FORCES OF RECOVERY. AS I MENTIONED, THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS ALREADY EASED MONETARY CONDITIONS SUBSTANTIALLY, AND BOARD CHAIRMAN ARTHUR BURNS HAS INDICATED THAT THE FED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RECOVERY WHILE AVOIDING EXCESSIVE STIMULATION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CONGRESS HAS PASSED AND THE PRESIDENT HAS.SIGNED THE BIGGEST TAX CUT IN OUR HISTORY. COMBINED WITH A LARGE FEDERAL DEFICIT,»THE TAX CUT WILL GIVE A STRONG BOOST TO THE ECONOMY. 1 DO NOT MEAN TO ASSERT THAT THE END OF THE RECESSION 1 - - 1*1 is AT HAND. DURING COMING MONTHS, MUCH OF THE ECONOMIC NEWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLEAK, REGISTERING FURTHER STATISTICAL EXPRESSIONS OF THE RECESSION. I DO SUGGEST, HOWEVER, THAT '1 THE ECONOMY IS NOW.PROVIDING MOUNTING EVIDENCE THAT THE RECESSION YEAR. WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE MIDDLE MONTHS OF THE BY THE END OF THE YEAR, WE WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY. WHAT LIES BEYOND RECOVERY? THE MOST SERIOUS QUESTION BEFORE US IS NOT WHETHER RECOVERY IS COMING, BUT WHAT LIES JUST BEYOND. CAN WE SUSTAIN A STEADY, UPWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ECONOMY, OR WILL WE BEGIN CLIMBING ONLY TO PLUNGE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE ABYSS? THAT IS THE ISSUE THAT WE MUST FACE UP TO IN OUR ECONOMIC POLICY DECISIONS* THERE IS NO DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO STEER THE ECONOMY BACK TO THE PATH OF PROGRESS AND PROS- - 8PERITY. DESPITE THE REPORTS THAT YOU SOMETIMES READ IN THE PRESS, THERE IS NO' REAL MYSTERY ABOUT HOW WE GOT INT,0 THIS MESS NOR SHOULD THERE BE MUCH DISPUTE ABOUT HOW WE GET OUT. MY DEEPEST CONCERN IS WHETHER WE HAVE LEARNED THE LESSONS OF THE PAST AND NOW HAVE THE WISDOM AND THE COURAGE TO TAKE THE PROPER MEDICINE FOR THE FUTURE. AS LEADERS OF THE COAL INDUSTRY, YOU HAVE GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO THE RIGORS OF THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM. YOU KNOW WHAT IT'S LIKE TO EXPERIENCE SETBACKS, BUT YOU ALSO HAVE THE BACKBONE AND THE DETERMINATION TO OVERCOME YOUR PROBLEMS. THAT IS WHY I AM SURE YOU CAN BE COUNTED ON IN THE COMING EFFORT TO PUT THE AMERICAN ECONOMY BACK ON SOLID FOOTING. WE CERTAINLY NEED YOUR HELP. * LET'S FACE TT: OUR ECONOMY IS IN TROUBLE TODAY BECAUSE WE HAVE TRIED TO LIVE BEYOND OUR MEANS FOR SO MANY YEARS AND WE HAVE SERIOUSLY ABUSED THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM THAT HAS I91> BEEN THE FOUNDATION OF OUR ECONOMIC ABUNDANCE. MORE AND MORE WE HAVE TURNED TO THE GOVERNMENT TO SOLVE OUR PROBLEMS, WHEN IN OUR HEARTS WE ALWAYS KNEW THAT GENUINE PROGRESS COMES THROUGH THE SWEAT AND DETERMINATION OF FREE MEN AND WOMEN. NO ONE CAN BE SO EMPTY HEADED AS TO DENOUNCE ALL FORMS OF GOVERNMENTAL ACTIVITY, BUT THE RAPID GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT IN RECENT YEARS HAS EXCEEDED ANYTHING IN OUR HISTORY AND HAS HAD A POWERFUL IMPACT UPON OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH, IT TOOK 186 YEARS FOR THE FEDERAL BUDGET TO REACH $100 BILLION, A LINE IT CROSSED IN 1962, THEN ONLY NINE MORE YEARS WERE REQUIRED TO REACH $200 BILLION AND ONLY FOUR MORE YEARS TO REACH $300 BILLION — YEAR. A RECORD WE ARE SETTING THIS AS WE HAV^ OPENED THE FLOODGATES ON THE FEDERAL BUDGET, GOVERNMENT SPENDING HAS BECOME A DOMINANT FORCE WITHIN OUR ECONOMY. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING TODAY ACCOUNTS - 1U FOR ABOUT A THIRD OF OUR GNP - ALMOST THREE TIMES THE LEVEL OF PRE-DEPRESSION YEARS - AND IF RECENT TRENDS PREVAIL, GOVERNMENT SPENDING COULD ACCOUNT FOR AS MUCH AS 60% OF OUR GNP BY THE YEAR 2000. THAT GROWTH HAS FRIGHTENING IMPLICATIONS. WHEN ANY GOVERNMENT TAXES AWAY MORE THAN HALF OF WHAT A PEOPLE PRODUCE, ROBBING THEM OF THEIR ECONOMIC FREEDOMS, CAN THERE BE ANY DOUBT THAT THE LOSS OF THEIR SOCIAL AND PERSONAL FREEDOMS WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND? IT HAS NEVER BEEN POLITICALLY POPULAR, OF COURSE, TO INCREASE TAXES, SO THAT INCREASED FEDERAL SPENDING HAS MEANT A STRING OF FEDERAL DEFICITS — 14 IN THE LAST 15 YEARS. As A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT OVER THE PAST DECADE HAS BEEN REQUIRED TO BORROW A QUARTER OF A TRILLION DOLLARS FROM THE PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS THAT HAVE ALWAYS BEEN THE CENTERPIECE OF OUR FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM. IN THIS CALENDAR YEAR ALONE, THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT WILL BE REQUIRED TO BORROW AT LEAST $80 BILLION ~ OVER A BILLION AND A HALF DOLLARS A WEEK. MONETARY POLICY HAS ALSO BEEN A CULPRIT OF OUR ECONOMIC TROUBLES. FROM 1955 TO 1965, THE MONEY SUPPLY GREW AT AN AVERAGE RATE OF 2 1/2 PERCENT A YEAR, AND WE ENJOYED A PERIOD OF REASONABLE PRICE STABILITY. SLNCE 1965, HOWEVER, THE RATE OF GROWTH HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED TO 6 PERCENT A YEAR, FAR MORE THAN THE ECONOMY COULD REASONABLY ABSORB. WITH THE MONEY SUPPLY GROWING SO MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE ECONOMY ITSELF, IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT INFLATION HAS BECOME A CHRONIC PROBLEM. A RELATED TREND WHICH HAS HAD A DESTRUCTIVE IMPACT UPON THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN THE ENORMOUS PROLIFERATION OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS IN RE*CENT YEARS. I KNOW THAT EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS HAVE BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRY. LET ME ASSURE YOU OF THIS: YOU ARE NOT ALONE. AN INCREASING - 12 - NUMBER OF PRODUCERS AS WELL AS CONSUMERS ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT THIS BURDEN. CONSIDER JUST A FEW EXAMPLES OF THE REGULATORY PROCESS IN ACTION: s ~ IT IS ALMOST TWICE AS FAR FROM SAN FRANCISCO TO LOS ANGELES THAN FROM NEW YORK TO WASHINGTON, AND YET THE AIR FARE ON THE CALIFORNIA TRIP IS ALMOST A THIRD CHEAPER. WHY? BECAUSE AIRLINES OPERATING INTRASTATE IN CALIFORNIA ARE NOT CONTROLLED BY FEDERAL REGULATORS, — THE GOVERNMENT ALSO REQUIRES THE RAILROADS TO MAINTAIN AS MANY AS 50,000 MILES OF TRACK THAT MAY NO LONGER BE NEEDED, CREATING ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL BURDENS ON AN INDUSTRY ALREADY IN PERIL. — IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY, THE FEDERAL POWER COMMISSION, DESPITE REPEATED WARNINGS FROM EXPERTS, HAS BEEN REQUIRED FOR MORE THAN TWO DECADES TO KEEP THE WELLHEAD PRICE OF NATURAL GAS AT AN ABNORMALLY LOW LEVEL IN ORDER TO HOLD DOWN - 13 - \U PRICES FOR CONSUMERS. BUT THESE CONTROLS HAVE REDUCED THE INCENTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW DOMESTIC SUPPLIES, SO THAT TODAY THERE IS MUCH LESS NATURAL GAS THAN WE NEED. GOVERNMENTAL 1 REGULATIONS HAVE, IN EFFECT, CREATED A NATIONAL SHORTAGE. SURVEYING THE WHOLE RANGE OF REGULATIONS, IT IS APPA- RENT THAT IN A SUBTLE BUT INSIDIOUS WAY THEY HAVE SPREAD THROUGHOUT OUR SOCIETY SO THAT TODAY THEY ENCUMBER ALMOST EVERY PHASE OF BUSINESS AND INDUSTRIAL LIFE AND COST CONSUMERS UNTOLD BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. IS THERE ANY DOUBT HERE TODAY THAT THE WAY TO SOLVE MANY OF OUR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS IS TO ALLOW THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM TO FUNCTION FREELY? LET US BE AWARE, HOWEVER, THAT THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM IS NOT AS POTENT AS IT ONCE WAS, OVER THE LAST DECADE, AS THE FORCES OF*BIG GOVERNMENT HAVE BEEN OVERFED AND OVERNOURISHED, THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENED. THE RECORD OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES - 14 IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN THE LOWEST OF ANY MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED NATION IN THE FREE WORLD. FROM 1960 THROUGH 1973, TOTAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN THE U.S. AVERAGED ABOUT 18 PERCENT A YEAR OF OUR REAL NATIONAL OUTPUT, COMPARED TO 35 PERCENT IN JAPAN, 26 PERCENT IN WEST GERMANY, AND 25 PERCENT IN FRANCE. NOT SUPRISINGLY, OUR RECORDS OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND OVERALL ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THIS SAME PERIOD WERE ALSO AMONG THE LOWEST OF THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS. REAL GROWTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY DURING THIS PERIOD AVERAGED 4 PERCENT A YEAR, COMPARED TO 11 PERCENT A YEAR IN JAPAN AND JUST UNDER 6 PERCENT A YEAR IN WEST GERMANY AND FRANCE. I RECENTLY RECEIVED THE RESULTS OF A STUDY BY THE RESPECTED ECONOMIST us. PIERRE RENFRET WHICH SHOULD CONCERN ALL OF THE STUDY REVEALS THAT AS OF MARCH OF THIS YEAR, WHILE » THE ECONOMY WAS IN THE DEEPEST SLUMP SINCE WORLD WAR II, WE WERE STILL OPERATING AT APPROXIMATELY 85 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. WHILE HIS FIGURES ARE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THOSE COLLECTED BY 15 -- . W THE GOVERNMENT, THEY SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE FAR LESS RESERVE CAPACITY THAN IS GENERALLY RECOGNIZED, I KNOW FROM MY OWN EXPERIENCE THAT THE STEEL INDUSTRY TODAY IS OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT DURING THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY THAT LIES AHEAD, WE MAY QUICKLY BUMP UP AGANIST THE LIMITS OF PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, FORCING UP PRICES ONCE AGAIN. WHY WE HAVE FAILED TO BUILD AND EXPAND OUR INDUSTRIAL BASE? A FUNDAMENTAL REASON, I WOULD ARGUE, IS THAT WE HAVE HAD POLICIES WHICH PROMOTE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND FEDERAL SPENDING AT THE EXPENSE OF SAVINGS, INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL FORMATION. DIVERTED TOO MANY OF OUR FINANCIAL RESOURCES HAVE BEEN FROM THEIR MOST PRODUCTIVE USE, THE PRIVATE SECTOR, TO THEIR LEAST PRODUCTIVE USE, THE GOVERNMENT. A RELATED PART OF THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN THE SERIOUS DETERIORATION IN CORPORATE PROFITS SINCE THE MID-1960S, CONTRARY TO POPULAR OPINION, AFTER-TAX PROFITS MEASURED IN REAL TERMS HAVE DROPPED BY 50 PERCENT SINCE 1965. IT IS NOT UNFAIR TO SAY - 16 - THAT WE HAVE BEEN AND REMAIN TODAY IN A PROFITS DEPRESSION IN THE UNITED STATES, * THE INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS TRENDS THAT I HAVE MENTIONED HERE TODAY — EXCESSIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES, OVERZEALOUS REGULATION BY THE GOVERNMENT, AND INADEQUATE CAPITAL FORMATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ~ HAS HAD A NUMBER OF EFFECTS WITHIN THE ECONOMY, BUT NONE HAS BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE GENERAL INFLATION THAT HAS RESULTED. SLNCE THE MID-1960S, WE HAVE BEEN PLAGUED WITH AN INFLATION RATE THAT HAS GRADUALLY CLIMBED FROM ONE PLATEAU TO THE NEXT. IN RECENT YEARS, THAT RATE WAS PUMPED SWIFTLY UPWARDS BY THE QUADRUPLING OF OIL PRICES, THE INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES, AND OTHER CAUSES, BUT AS THOSE SPECIAL FACTORS DISAPPEAR, IT WILL BE APPARENT THAT THE UNDERLYING REASON FOR MODERN INFLATION HAS BEEN OUR MISGUIDED POLICIES. ECONOMISTS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO RECOGNIZE THAT MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR, INFLATION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR CAUSING TODAY'S RECESSION. AS PRICES SKYROCKETED AND REAL INCOMES WER,E ERODED, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FELL AND WE EXPERIENCED THE WORST DROP IN CONSUMER SPENDING IN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY. SIMILARLY, AS PRICES ROSE, FUNDS WERE DRAWN OUT OF THE THRIFT INSTITUTIONS, INTEREST RATES WERE DRIVEN UP, AND THE BOTTOM FELL OUT OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY. WE MUST WAKE UP THE FACT THAT INFLATION IS THE SINGLE MOST DESTRUCTIVE FORCE WITHIN OUR ECONOMY. THE CHIEF DANGER WE FACE TODAY IS THAT WE WILL FAIL TO HEED THE LESSONS OF THE PAST BUT WILL INSTEAD PURSUE THE SAME OLD POLICIES. PRESIDENT FORD IS FIGHTING HARD TO HOLD THE FEDERAL DEFICIT FOR THE COMING FISCAL YEAR TO $60 BILLION. YET IT IS APPARENT THAT A MAJORITY OF THE CONGRESS BELIEVE THAT DEFICIT IS TOO LOW. THEY COULD EASILY PUSH IT UP TO $70-80 BILLION, AND CONCEIVABLY UP TO $100 BILLION, WHAT A SAD COMMENTARY THAT WOULD BE IF 14 YEARS AFTER THE - 18 ENTIRE FEDERAL BUDGET BROKE THE $100 BILLION FIGURE, THE DEFICIT ALONE WERE OVER $100 BILLION. , RUNAWAY FEDERAL DEFICITS — DEFICITS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF $80 - 100 BILLION -- WOULD CREATE A SERIOUS RISK OF TOUCHING OFF A NEW ROUND OF EVEN MORE SERIOUS INFLATION FOLLOWED BY STILL MORE UNEMPLOYMENT. MOST OFTEN, NEW SPENDING PROGRAMS REQUIRE A YEAR TO 18 MONTHS BEFORE THEY COME ON STREAM. THUS, PROGRAMS ENACTED IN COMING MONTHS WOULD NOT PUMP STIMULUS INTO THE ECONOMY UNTIL WE ARE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD FULL CAPACITY, AND THEY WOULD THEN CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. A SECOND DANGER FROM HUGE FEDERAL DEFICITS WOULD ARISE IN OUR PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS. I HAVE SAID SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE THE DEFICITS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF $50 - 60 BILLION WOULD BE MANAGEABLE, EVEN THOUGH THEY WOULD CREATE STRAINS, BUT DEFICITS OF A MUCH LARGER MAGNITUDE WOULD - 19 • y^> BE VERY RISKY INDEED. IN AN ORDINARY RECESSION, LARGE-SCALE FEDERAL BORROWING CAN1 BE ACCOMODATED IN THE PRIVATE MARKETS BECAUSE PRIVATE DEMANDS FOR FUNDS ARE SLACK. IN THIS RECESSION, HOWEVER, THE HIGH RATE OF INFLATION AS WELL AS THE SKEWED NATURE OF THE CORPORATE DEBT STRUCTURE HAVE HELPED TO KEEP PRIVATE DEMANDS FOR FUNDS HIGHER THAN WE WOULD OTHERWISE EXPECT IN A RECESSION. MOREOVER, AS THE RECOVERY TAKES HOLD, PRIVATE DEMANDS FOR FUNDS WILL RISE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE TREASURY WILL STILL BE BORROWING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY TO COVER THE DEFICITS. IT IS WELL TO REMEMBER THAT OUR RECESSION IS NEARLY 75% COMPLETED BUT OUR BORROWING TO COVER THE DEFICITS IS ONLY 25% COMPLETED. THE DANGERS THAT WE FACE HERE ARE OF TWO KINDS. ONE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE EXCESSIVE FEDERAL DEMANDS ON THE CAPITAL MARKETS AS THE ECONOMY RECOVERS AND PRIVATE DEMANDS - 20 - ARE ACCELERATING, WOULD SET IN MOTION A VICIOUS COMPETITION BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE BORROWERS FOR CAPITAL FUNDS, INEVITABLY, MORTGAGE BORROWERS AND MEDIUM TO LOWER-RATED BUSINESS BORROWERS WOULD BE CROWDED OUT OF THE MARKETPLACE. THIS COULD ABORT THE EXPECTED ECONOMIC RECOVERY AT AN EARLY STAGE AND CAUSE UNEMPLOYMENT TO RISE AGAIN. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY WOULD BE FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO ACCOMMODATE THE ENORMOUS BORROWING REQUIREMENTS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AS WELL AS PRIVATE DEMANDS, BY CREATING A MORE RAPID GROWTH IN MONEY AND CREDIT. THIS MIGHT POSTPONE THE ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE RECOVERY FOR PERHAPS A YEAR OR TWO, BUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF SUCH ACTION WOULD SOON CATCH UP WITH US IN THE FORM OF A REACCELERATED INFLATION FOLLOWED BY A NEW RECESSION AND HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT. I AM NOT PREDICTING SUCH DIRE RESULTS, BUT IT IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL THAT WE BEAR IN MIND THE DANGERS THAT WOULD BE CREATED IF WE TRY TO OUT SPEND OURSELVES OUR OF THIS RECESSION, - 21 - POLICIES FOR THF FURTURE WHAT, THEN, SHOULD BE OUR POLICIES FOR THE FUTURE? ., FIRST AND FOREMOST, WE MUST CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FORCES OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY SO THAT WE CAN END THE HARDSHIPS OF UNEMPLOYMENT. IN WARMING UP THE ECONOMY, HOWEVER, WE MUST BE EQUALLY CAREFUL NOT TO OVERHEAT IT. THAT WILL REQUIRE A SLOWER PERIOD OF RECOVERY THAN WE WOULD LIKE, BUT WE ARE ONLY BUYING MORE TROUBLE FOR OURSELVES OVER THE LONG RUN IF WE RESORT TO SHORT-TERM PALLIATIVES, SECOND, AS WE REGAIN OUR PROSPERITY, WE MUST"RESTORE MUCH GREATER DISCIPLINE TO OUR FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. INSTEAD OF AN UNBROKEN STRING OF FEDERAL DEFICITS, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO PURSUE BUDGET SURPLUSES IN GOOD YEARS SO THAT WE CAN FREE UP MORE FUNDS FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT. ' » • THIRD, I E MUST LIFT THE DEAD HAND OF GOVERNMENTAL REGULATION FROM THE MANY AREAS WHERE IT SMOTHERS ECONOMIC - aINCENTIVES AND GROWTH. THIS GOAL IS PARTICULARLY RELEVANT IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY. IF WE ARE TO ACHIEVE GREATER SELF SUFFICIENCY IN ENERGY, AS I BELIEVE WE MUST, THEN WE MUST ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RESOURCES SUCH AS COAL BY STRIKING A REASONABLE BALANCE BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS. THE RESTRAINTS IMPOSED BY THE GOVERNMENT UPON PRODUCTION, SALE AND USE OF OUR ENERGY RESOURCES ARE UNNECESSARILY RESTRICTIVE AND SHOULD BE SWIFTLY REVISED, FOURTH. WE MUST MAKE A BASIC SHIFT IN OUR DOMESTIC POLICIES SO THAT WE PUCE LESS EMPHASIS UPON CONSUMPTION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND MORE UPON SAVINGS, INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL FORMATION. WHILE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE CAPITAL NEEDS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT, A VARIETY OF STUDIES HAVE CONCLUDED THAT OUR INVESTMENT NEEDS DURING THE NEXT DECADE WILL BE. » ALMOST TRIPLE THE AMOUNT OF RECENT YEARS, INVESTMENTS DEMANDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY ACUTE IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY, GENERAL PROJECTIONS OF ENERGY INDUSTRY REQUIREMENTS OVER THE NEXT DECADE RANGE FROM $750 BILLION TO $1 TRILLION. UTILITIES WILL NEED THE GREATEST PORTION OF THESE FUNDS, BUT WE MUST ALSO CHANNEL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INTO ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT 1 OF PETROLEUM, NATURAL GAS, COAL AND NON-FOSSIL FUELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY RESOURCES IS GREAT, BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT WE WILL NOT REALIZE THAT POTENTIAL SO LONG AS THE GOVERNMENT IGNORES THE FINANCIAL REALITIES INVOLVED AND INHIBITS THE PROCESS OF CAPITAL FORMATION. FINALLY, WE MUST BEGIN TO PLACE GREATER RELIANCE UPON THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN AND LESS UPON GOVERNMENT, THE PRIVATE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM HAS LONG BEEN A CONERSTONE OF OUR FREEDOMS AND HAS PROVIDED THIS NATION WITH THE GREATEST PROSPERITY AND THE HIGHEST STANDARD OF LIVING EVER KNOWN. BUT IN TODAY'S ECONOMIC TURBULENCE, THERE ARE CONTINUING' '»• TEMPTATIONS TO REPLACE THAT SYSTEM WITH THE FORCES OF CENTRALIZED GOVERNMENT, THE GOVERNMENT HAS BECOME SO HUGE AND DOMINEERING ~ AND WE HAVE TURNED TO IT SO OFTEN FOR SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE - 24 FALLEN SHORT OF OUR DREAMS ~ THAT THE TIME HAS COME TO REDISCOVER HOW MUCH CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED BY PRIVATE ENTERPRISE AND> BY MEN AND WOMEN WHO ARE FREE TO DETERMINE THEIR OWN DESTINIES. IN COMING YEARS, IF WE ARE TEMPTED ONCE AGAIN BY THE SIREN SONGS OF BIG GOVERNMENT, WE WILL NOT ONLY INFLICT ENORMOUS DAMAGE UPON OUR ECONOMY BUT WE WILL ALSO PLACE THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM IN THE GREATEST DANGER IT HAS FACED IN OUR LIFETIMES, THAT SYSTEM IS ALREADY UNDER SEIGE: IT IS MINDLESSLY DISTRUSTED BY FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE — AND WHEREVER IT IS DISPLACED, THE GOVERNMENT QUICKLY FILLS THE VACUUM. THIS GENERATION — OUR GENERATION — MAY BE THE LAST WHICH CAN STOP THE SWING OF THE PENDULUM BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. AS MEN AND WOMEN AT THE HEART OF AMERICAN INDUSTRY, I URGE YOU TO STAND UP AND FIGHT FOR THAT CAUSE. THANK YOU, * # # STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE CHARLES A. COOPER, ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND COMMERCE OF THE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 10:00 a.m., May 5, 1975, 2255 RHOB Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to appear before this Subcommittee to discuss the proposed Financial Support Fund. This new international financial arrangement represents a key element of our efforts to promote effective international cooperation — in both energy and general economic policy — in a period of great uncertainty and change. An effective response to the financial and economic challenges posed by the severe increases in oil prices demands a unity of purpose and common effort among major oil consuming nations. The Support Fund can play a major role in shaping that common effort. Basic Purposes and Principles of Support Fund The Support Fund Agreement signed by Secretary Simon on behalf of the United States on April 9 has its origins in proposals put forward independently by the United States and by the Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) late last year. Those proposals were pursued intensively first by a working party of the Deputies of the Group of Ten major industrial nations. \TS - 2 f) 1 - 2 The outlines of the plan were accepted in principle by Ministers of the Group of Ten in Washington in January. Detailed technical and legal drafting was then assigned to a working party of the OECD, an organization whose membership includes nearly all the developed nations of the non-Communist world. The agreement therefore represents a major international cooperative effort. But the basic purpose and substance of the agreement closely parallel original U.S. concepts. The proposals for a Support Fund arrangement were developed following a period of widespread concern — which has subsequently proved unwarranted — that the oil importing world faced nearly certain financial disaster, that the private financial markets were utterly incapable of handling financing of the magnitudes and variety foreseen and that a large new official "re-cycling" mechanism be imposed on the world to intermediate between the oil exporting investors and the oil importing borrowers. Those who held such views suggested various proposals involving more or less open-ended official financing arrangements between lenders and borrowers, displacing private markets and other existing financing channels, and frequently envisaging guarantees or other special incentives to induce the oil exporters to place their funds with the new arrangement. Proposals for a massive, open-ended IMF oil facility — involving IMF borrowings from the oil producers on the basis of market-related rates of interest, exchange rate and default guarantees to lenders, and virtually automatic credit to borrowers — perhaps best typified these schemes. Our proposal for a Financial Support Fund was based on a different analysis of the situation and a different assessment of the requirements. First, we felt it was not desirable to create a major new financial mechanism to deal with oil-related financing without addressing more fundamental problems. Any new arrangement must demand of its participants cooperation in energy policy, as well as cooperation in broader economic and financial policy. Second, the U.S. viewed the financial problems posed by the increases in oil prices as transitional in nature. Energy conservation and increased energy production in the oil importing world will over time cut into the oil exporters' revenues. Rapidly growing demands in oil exporting countries for foreign goods and technology will over time substantially increase their payments abroad. These transfers will impose the real costs of high oil prices, but they will also serve to make the financial problem temporary. Current projections are that the accumulated investible surplus of the oil exporters as a group will have peaked by the end of this decade, if not before, in the range of $170-$250 billion (at 1974 prices). If this expectation is correct, the largest annual imbalances between the oil importing and exporting groups have - 4already occurred and will taper off toward the end of the 1970's. But large imbalances and financing needs will continue for the next several years, and their cumulative effects may mean that the severest tests still lie ahead. Third, we believe that any official financial mechanism established should not seek to displace the private markets or other existing sources of financing. These arrangements performed well in 1974 in the face of rapidly changing circumstances, and should be permitted and encouraged to continue to perform and adapt. Fourth, in our view the nature of the financing problems, or potential financing problems, faced by the developed oil importing countries was not the unavailability of financing in the aggregate. The oil exporting countries have no practical alternative to placement of the bulk of their financial surpluses in the capital and money markets of the major oil importing countries. Instead, the danger is that an individual country may not be able to obtain on reasonable terms the external financing it needs to maintain appropriate levels of domestic economic activity, to avoid recourse to restrictions on international trade and capital flows, and to maintain cooperative energy policies. The major dangers that to many seemed so prominent in the immediate aftermath of the oil price increases have been avoided thus far, and we hope that will continue to be the case. Nonetheless, there is no assurance at present that this favorable situation will continue, and that individual countries will not be driven to inappropriate and unfair policies by the unavailability, actual or prospective, of needed external capital. This possibility may increase as the imbalances, and countries' use of international financing arrangements, accumulate. Once begun, recourse to such policies could quickly spread, triggering a destructive and selfdefeating spiral of restrictions on world trade and payments and moves toward excessive curtailment of economic activity. Our ability to achieve effective cooperation on the real problems of energy, growth, inflation and economic development would be gravely jeopardized. The risk of such a trend is shared by all countries. It is manageable, but it must be managed. This basic analysis, which has gained widespread acceptance, has determined several fundamental principles of the Support Fund's operations. — The Support Fund is designed to meet a common danger, and all risk associated with its operations will be shared fully and equitably, on a predetermined basis, among all participants. Risk will not fall — as it might in the absence of the Fund — on the one or two countries that might be in the strongest position when an emergency arises elsewhere in the system. -- Commitment to cooperation in energy and general - 6 economic policy is a basic requirement of participation in the Support Fund. In the event the Fund has to be used, specific policy conditions will be attached to its loans. The need for a financial mechanism complementary to cooperation in energy and economic policy made it desirable that the arrangement be established within the general framework of the OECD, which provides the central forum for such cooperation among developed countries. — The Support Fund is a temporary device. Its authority to provide financing will lapse two years after it comes into existence, and no new institution or staff will be created. The Support Fund will be headquartered at the OECD in Paris; its policies and operations will be guided by financial officials from participating capitals, meeting as necessary to conduct the Fundfs business; and needed staff work will be carried out by the OECD staff under agreed compensation arrangements. At the end of two years, of course, circumstances may show that we have been too optimistic and that the life of the Fund should be extended. But that does not appear likely at this stage. — The Support Fund is an insurance mechanism, a "safety net" to supplement other sources of financing, private and official, only in the event those other sources prove inadequate to meet world financing needs. To be eligible to request a loan from the Support Fund, a country must demonstrate not only that it is encountering serious external financial difficulties but also that it has made the fullest appropriate use of other sources of financing available to it. Loans will be based on market terms. The existence of the Fund should serve to strengthen the operations of the private markets and make recourse to the Fund's resources unlikely. These principles assure that the new arrangement will serve as a mutual insurance fund in support of mutual objectives, with risk spread equitably and with any participant entitled to borrow from the Fund if its circumstances warrant. It will not be a regularly-used financing channel or be viewed as a foreign aid device. There is no scope in the Support Fund for the provision of financing without appropriate policy conditions, or for concessional assistance. If the Fund is used, participants will make financing available to it on market terms, and the cost of financing to borrowers will be greater than the cost of financing to the Fund. The aim is to assure access to financing, not to provide financing on generous terms. In essence, the Support Fund is designed to provide confidence: — Confidence to the private markets in the strength and integrity of the system as a whole; and — Confidence to participants in their ability to handle their own problems — to deal with their energy-related financing needs without dependence on the oil exporting countries. - 8 This self-confidence is essential to the close cooperation in energy and other policies that is needed in the period ahead. The practical facts of the situation are that the major oil importing countries can handle their own financing needs without relying on the agreement or specific investment policies of the oil importing countries. The close relation- ship of the Fund to energy policy and the need to maintain confidence on the part of the oil importing countries, individually and as a group, indicate that they should handle their mutual problems on their own. Main Operating Provisions of Support Fund Copies of the Support Fund Agreement have been made available to the Subcommittee. Having outlined the basic purposes and principles of the Support Fund, let me now sketch its main operating provisions very briefly. 1. The Support Fund will be open to all OECD member countries prepared to commit themselves to cooperation in energy and general economic policy. In fact, all OECD members except Turkey have already signed the agreement, and Turkey intends to sign shortly. 2. Like any insurance policy, the resources of the Support Fund must be seen to be adequate to meet potential needs, and seen to be available promptly if needed. Total country quotas in the Support Fund will amount to about ^76 $25 billion. The U. S. quota will amount to about $7 billion, or 27.8 percent of the total. 3. No money is to be paid in to the Support Fund unless and until the need arises. Quotas will simply be available on a standby or "call" basis in case of need. 4. Countries' quotas will determine (a) the distribution of default risk; (b) voting power; (c) obligations to provide financing; (d) rights to borrow; and (e) maximum financial obligations to the Fund. 5. The main financial decisions — and calls to provide financing — decisions on loans will require a 2/3 weighted majority vote plus a simple unweighted majority of the number of countries voting. Decisions on loans that raise a borrower's debt to the Fund above the amount of that country's quota, but less than twice its quota, will require a 90 percent weighted vote; and loans that cause a borrower's debt to the Fund to exceed twice its quota will require unanimous consent. In practice, therefore, the U.S. and any other single major participant could together exercise an effective veto on all operations of the Fund, and the U.S. alone will have veto power over any loans that raise a borrower's outstanding debt to the Fund above its quota. 6. All decisions will be taken by a Governing Committee composed of one senior financial official and one alternate from each participating government. An Advisory Board of - 10 experts nominated by members and designated by the Governing Committee will prepare the work of the Committee. No secretariat or permanent institutional structure will be created. The Fund will rely on the OECD Secretariat for necessary staff work. 7. Financing of Support Fund operations will be flexible. The Governing Board can decide to finance a loan by (a) "individual commitments," involving either a direct loan to the Fund or a borrowing by the Fund on the strenqth of individual countries' quarantees; or (b) borrowinqs bv the Fund on the strenqth of the collective quarantee of all participants. Resources will be made available to the Fund on market-related terms. 8. In principle, all participants except the borrower will share in the provision of each financinq operation accordinq to quota shares. However, there will be some scope for countries to be excused from the obliqations to provide financinq to the Fund under "individual commitments" and also to "mobilize," or obtain early repayment of, a loan already made to the Fund. In either case, the country would itself have to be in serious balance-of-payments difficulty and obtain the approval of the Governing Committee by a 2/3 majority vote. These clauses relate strictly to the provision of financing. They do not excuse a participant from assuming its share of the default risk on any loan made by the Fund, a risk which in all cases will be shared in proportion to quotas. 9. Loan recipients will have to be facing serious balance-of-payments difficulties and making fullest appropriate use of alternative sources of financing available on reasonable terms. They will also have to follow policies consistent with the Support Fund's objectives, including cooperative energy policies, and will have to accept specific economic policy conditions established by the Governing Committee. 10. Loans may be "phased," with each installment contingent on the borrowerf s performance with respect to the agreed conditions. Loans may be made for up to seven years and will bear interest adequate to cover the cost of resources to the Fund. U. S. Participation in Support Fund Signature of the agreement establishing the Support Fund did not constitute an obligation of the U.S. to participate or provide financing to the Support Fund. The agreement expressly provides that it will enter into force for a signatory only after that country has obtained all necessary legislation or other authority constitutionally required or otherwise necessary for its participation. Most prospective participants will need domestic legislation, and all understand clearly that approval of the Congress will be needed before the United States can participate. Preparation of the draft legislation to enable the U.S. to participate is near completion, and I hope that it can be transmitted to Congress in the very near future. - 12 Conclusion Mr. Chairman, the U.S. interest in preservation of a cooperative and smoothly operating world economy is unmistakable. That interest, reflected in the extensive framework of international cooperative arrangements developed since World War II, has been underscored with a vengeance by the events of the past two years or so. The proposed Support Fund is a basic element of our efforts to develop, together with other oil importing nations, a cooperative response to the energy situation and to maintain a strong and open world economic order. The Support Fund is based on principles of mutual support and equitable sharing of common risks. It will promote maximum reliance on the existing financial arrangements that have served us well to date, while providing a valuable multilateral insurance facility should those existing arrangements prove inadequate. Should the Support Fund not have to be used, that insurance will have been costless. If it must be brought into play, the benefits to U.S. interests will have been well worth the effort. The legislation that will come to the Congress shortly will embody a central element of U.S. foreign economic policy, and I hope it will receive your strong support. o 0 o .b to federal financing bank V) __ O WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Jack Plum 964-2615 May 6, 1975 SUMMARY OF LENDING ACTIVITY April 4 - May 5, 1975 Federal Financing Bank lending activity for the period April 4 through May 5, 1975 was announced as follows by Roland H. Cook, Secretary: On April 7, Amtrak, the National Railroad Passenger V Corporation made a $20 million drawing at an interest rate of 6.432% against its $100 million line of credit. The line of credit matured on April 11, 1975, and the outstanding advances totaling $75.0 million were rolled over for 91 days at an interest rate of 6.1137o. The new maturity date is July 11, 1975. On April 9, the Bank advanced $539,207 to the Doniphan Telephone Company at an interest rate of 8.59%>, payable on a quarterly basis. The loan is guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration and matures December 31, 2009. On April 10, the General Services Administration made a $48 million drawing against a $107 million commitment signed on December 13, 1974. The interest rate is 8.70% and the maturity is November 15, 2004. On April 14, the Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae) borrowed $10 million from the FFB at 7.15% interest. The maturity date is April 15, 1976. On April 16, the Bank advanced $8.3 million at a 7.65%^ interest rate to the Goverrment of Greece under a $48 million, 10-year commitment signed Februray 28, 1975. On April 30, the Bank made another advance of $4.2 million to the Government of Greece at 8.55% interest. The loan is guaranteed by the Department of Defense. (Over) - 2On April 16, the Bank advanced $750,000 to the South Mississippi Electric Power Association at an interest rate of 7.61%, payable on a quarterly basis. The loan is guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration and matures April 18, 1977. On April 23, the Bank purchased $4.4 million of Small Business Investment Company 10-year debentures at an interest rate of 8.707_. On April 30, the Bank loaned $4.5 million to borrowers guaranteed by the Rural Electrification Administration; $3.0 million to Oglethorpe Electric Membership Corporation at 7.92% quarterly interest, and maturing May 5, 1977, and $1.5 million to the Quincy Telephone Company at 8.80% quarter interest and maturing December 31, 2009. On April 30, the Tennessee Valley Authority borrowed $70 million at 5.99% interest. This loan matures July 31, 1975. On April 30, the Bank purchased $500 million of 5-year Certificates of Beneficial Ownership from the Farmers Home Administration at an interest rate of 8.68% on an annual basis. oOo CONTACT: Jack Plum 964-2615 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 6, 19 75 MONETARY REFORM COMMITTEE MEETS, SHULTZ NAMED NEWEST MEMBER The Advisory Committee on Reform of the International Monetary System, meeting at the Treasury Department today under the chairmanship of former Secretary of the Treasury Henry H. Fowler, reviewed current issues in international monetary negotiations, including the agreement by member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to establish, subject to legislative approval, a $25 billion Financial Support Fund. The Committee, which advises the Secretary of the Treasury, also considered proposed increases in quotas in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a series of possible amendments to the IMF Articles of Agreement, and techniques for meeting the balanceof-payments financing needs of developing countries. At the meeting, Secretary William E. Simon announced the appointment of former Treasury Secretary George P. Shultz to the Committee. Mr. Shultz, currently Executive Vice President of the Bechtel Corporation, established the Committee in August 1973, when he was Secretary of the Treasury. WS-29L(Over) - 2 Besides Mr. Shultz, the Committee includes four other former Secretaries of the Treasury: Henry H. Fowler, Advisory Committee Chairman and Partner, Goldman, Sachs and Company John B. Connally of Vinson, Elkins, Searles and Connally C. Douglas Dillon, Chairman, Dillon Read and Company David M. Kennedy Other members of the Committee are: William Blackie, Senior Partner, Lehman Brothers Alden W. Clausen, President, Bank of America Gaylord Freeman, Chairman, First National Bank of Chicago Gabriel Hauge, Chairman, Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company Reginald H. Jones, Chairman, General Electric Company William McChesney Martin, former Federal Reserve Board Chairman and presently Counselor to the Board of the Riggs National Bank Elmore C. Patterson, Chairman, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company Howard C. Petersen, Chairman, Fidelity Bank of Philadelphia David Rockefeller, Chairman, Chase Manhattan Bank Robert V. Roosa, Partner, Brown Brothers Harriman and Co. Walter B. Wriston, Chairman, First National City Bank of New York o 0 o 9 7i It's a pleasure to be here today in the great state of Texas. I realize that you originally had hoped that Deputy Secretary Stephen Gardner would be here today. He had hoped to be here also; however, Secretary Simon had need for him to go abroad. Therefore, it's your misfortune, but my good fortune to be here with you today. I'm truly delighted to be back in the Southwest, My only daughter and new son-in-law live in Houston, and my lifelong home has been New Mexico. Little did I dream a year ago that in May of 197 5 I would leave my beloved Southwest to become Treasurer of the United States. In fact, I can hardly believe the whole past year. When I first went to Washington as the United States Treasurer last summer, I had only a vague idea of what my days would be like. After 26 years as a Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, Top Management TSIA Meeting in Austin, Texas on May 6, 1975. o i/ housewife, my real forte was mopping the kitchen floors — which was, in fact, what I was doing when the call came asking me to fly East and be interviewed for the position. After several interviews, and some soul-searching on my part, I was offered, and accepted, the position as our 35th Treasurer. And so, on June 21, 1974, I took my oath of office. In the eleven months since then, I've found that my duties fall into four main categories. My most glamorous job is reviewing and endorsing our currency. I still find it hard to believe it is mv hamR on our dollar bills., and I still get a thrill out of pulling "Francine I. Neff" out of my pocket when I buy something -- which, according to my husband, is much too often. My second job is to represent the Secretary of the Treasury and the Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs as a spokesman in communicating and coordinating Departmental policies. My third job is to chair the.Treasury Department's bicentennial programs. I find it exciting to tell the Treasury story -- we're the second oldest agency -- and we're planning a number of projects, the most exciting of which includes transforming the second floor of Main Treasury into a museum for the Bicentennial. -3- a~> My fourth job is National Director of the United States Savings Bonds Division. And I'd like to brag just a little about our Savings Bonds people and say that this year we've had the highest sales for the first lour months'of any year since 1945. So my work at Treasury is financial, bicentennial, buy bonds, and by gosh speak outI I do speak to many groups about our "Take Stock in America" Savings Bonds program. But I also remind people to take stock of America — to look around our country and see what's really happening. A lot of people don't like what they set today. And they say so — loud and long. But there is far more to America than rising unemployment and falling Dow-Jones averages. Let's look out our windows, and into our minds, for a few basics. We have the American land -- your Texas hills and high plains and cities, and my New Mexico mountains and mesas and all of the other places Americans call home. We have the ideas and attitudes that shaped us 200 years ago and that shape us today. We have the many freedoms we take for granted. There is the freedom to accept new challenges -as I did when I became the United States Treasurer and accepted the challenge of working full time for the 19^ country I love. There are the freedoms we all applaud, such as free speech and a free press. And then there are the freedoms that don't get their fair share of cheers. I'm thinking of our free enterprise system, which has brought us the greatest mass prosperity in history. Under our free enterprise economic system, the medium income of American families has doubled in the last 25 years — even taking inflation into account. In those same 25 years, the working conditions for most people have improved dramatically. At the same time, new homes, roads, and ail of the ether public"facilities for 35 million people have been constructed -- a tremendous job. Furthermore, economic and social conditions have been such that, in the last 15 years alone, we have more than doubled the number of young and older Americans going to college — the greatest example of upward mobility in a nation in history. And — returning to the economy and energy, we are still the most nearly independent of the world's major nations, and our automobile gas tanks are still full -- for a pricfe. So, despite our economic problems, we are not a down-and-out, 97-pound weakling of a nation. We are not in another Great Depression of the 1930's, when one out of every four heads of households was out of work. And for those who are unemployed today, we have a comprehensive program of benefits — social security, medicare, food stamps and many others -- that never existed in my, or perhaps your childhood, when my own family tried to eke out a living on our hardscrabble New Mexico pinto bean farm. Today, no other country has our manpower, our brainpower, our technology. And despite all cynicism, the word "America" is recognized around the world as a very special word standing for a country unlike any Ount;!" Oil cdiLiu I aiTi J. \j \j pti^tnL wluu 'i.'.^ LOSS, Treasury Secretary William Simon, when he says that "those who take a perverse delight in proclaiming the end of the American dream are dead wrong." Z^fter all of this, some people may accuse me of loving my country — and they're right I I grew up in the small town of Mountainair, New Mexico -- on a good day the census taker could find 1200 people — and I was raised on a diet of patriotism and pinto beans. The beans were sometimes scarce, but the patriotism was always there. I was taught to love your family, your community and your country, and that whatever you did in life — you did your best. As a teenager in World War Two, I sold war bonds at the Mountainair Post Office on Saturday mornings and rolled Red Cross bandages in the afternoon. I thought then that patriotism was a willingness to die for your country. Today, I still think that's one way to define patriotism. But I also think loving your country can be a willingness to live for it — to say "yes" to America in sickness and in health, till death us do part -- and to accept the resulting obligations. What are these obligations towards society? Well, my office at the Treasury Department in Washington is next door to the White House. I often see the protesters who march and picket around the President's home. They support many diverse and sometimes obscure causes. The opportunity to demonstrate this way is a basic right of all of us. But I wonder ... who speaks -who marches — for society as a whole? Who supports or defends our society -- as a society -- when it is attacked, as it seems to be almost daily? Angry young men and women may think that our society is made of granite. But you and I know that any modern civilization is enormously intricate. It holds together because thousands of spoken and unspoken acts and beliefs and forms of cooperation are repeated daily. Even strong societies are vulnerable to their « own citizens. And no society — no social contract of any kind — can hold together forever if the forces that beat upon it are too strong for too long. The ultimate fate of any nation is determined by the willingness of its citizens to voluntarily give that society some part of their time, trust and money, and to agree that certain norms of behavoir will be followed by the great majority of people. United States Savings Bonds volunteers understand this very well. You know, when we talk about America's wealth at the Treasury Department and elsewhere, we generally mean money -- dollars and gross national product. And, despite our problems, we probably lead the world in this. But there's another kind of wealth we also lead the world in -- and I refer to our American spirit of volunteerism. Volunteerism is men and women giving freely of themselves in time, interest, energy and money for a cause they believe in. An estimated 70 million American volunteers now work for one or more worthwhile causes. And I'm very happy that thousands of those volunteers -like yourselves — have chosen to work with the Treasury Department, and the American people on the U.S. Savings Bonds program. -8- / I > / We call Savings Bonds our nongovernmental government program, because 97 percent of people working in the program are unpaid volunteers. Even our advertising program is donated by the National Ad Council. And I feel right at home with volunteers because I was one myself for so many years. I think we all know the personal advantages of buying bonds. They are safe and secure in an uneasy world. Their six percent interest is competitive with other savings institutions and with the stock market. And they have some significant tax advantages. Further, they are good for the country. About _?*\ Tj i-*-7" r* ^ **, *f" f* "F 4- !•% _-, -1-^,4-^1 ir\^i "I^T-IZ-N rlcKf n r\ r^T^n^-r^-f-o "HpTiric; m- +J Y~ ^—* J- *-* VM* 4 i> k-» \-y ^* U i „ VM* W \-S %— W*. m-m. K-* W*> +*m* -±- -i. ^m* W * S—- +.-* W —.. * _> K-/ A. . . . W- V_- - - — *. — I V ». is in the form of U.S. Savings Bonds. This 23 percent is far and away the most stable part of the debt, because E and H Bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for more than six years. This compares to less than three years, on the average, for other marketable instruments. This long-term stability is important for two reasons. First, when the holding time decreases, any debt becomes more liquid, and this can be inflationary. And second, the job of refinancing a rapidly maturing national debt is difficult and expensive. So, Savings Bonds are good for Timerica and good -9- for Americans. Last year we had the highest sales since World War Two. For the first four months of this year, sales are even higher. We Americans know a good thing when we see it, and Savings Bonds are good in many, many way£. Of course,- to save money, you must make money — you must work. Here in America 85% of all jobs are in the private sector of our economy. Yet it's my observation that the whole story of the American free enterprise system is not well understood. The consumers' viewpoint of our economy is well known. Consumers, of course, want prices to stay down. Workers and labor unions legitimately desire higher wages, job retention and more fringe benefits. That, too, is well known. But where is the third viewpoint? Who is giving us, and our children, an informed insight into what the businessman thinks and expects and what his problems are? ' Think about it. "Profits" is a dirty word to many people, especially young people, implying greed or even dishonesty. I say "nonsense" -- and sometimes I even say something even stronger. -10- _ ^-o It seems to me that businessmen need not feel defensive because they earn money. Profits are what make a company healthy, and what allows the owner to provide more jobs. As for excessive profits — corporate profits today, in the aggregate, are at an all-time low as a percentage of our total national income, taking inventories and depreciiation into account. Figures show that after-tax profits have dropped by 50 percent since 1965. But that, too, is an unpublicized story. Of course, the free enterprise system isn't perfect, because it's operated by imperfect people like you and rn.e: B"t whpn T hpar oapi ta 1 i STTI dpnouncpd,. I am reminded of Sir Winston Churchill's remark about democracy. "Democracy," said Sir Winston, "is the worst form of government, except for all of those other forms that have been tried." The free enterprise system can be defended not as super-good, but as better than its competitors. Since I am a strong advocate of this system, people sometimes ask me: "If free enterprise works so well, why do we have such a high rate of inflation and unemployment?" Well, we all know there are several reasons for this. We fought a war in Viet Nam and charged it. We have sustained world-wide crop failures. We have just recently suffered an oil embargo and prices on oil are higher. But more fundamentally, we have, for years, as a nation abused our economic system. — Our Federal government puts enormous demands on the economy. This year our national budget is past the $300 billion barrier. And for the first time, the Treasury Department is borrowing money that will not be repaid until the 21st century. — Our national monetary policy — huge deficits, heavy borrowing and a growing money supply — has increased our problems. — The proliferation of government regulations continues and we continue to encourage consumption and federal spending at the cost of savings and investments. As you know, the record of capital investment in the United States in recent years has been the lowest of any major industrialized nation in the free world. These trends place enormous strains on our economy and are major causes of inflation. There are many recent signs of improvement. But we must still restore greater discipline to our financial affairs; lighten the hand of government on many areas of our economy; and encourage savings, investment and capital formation. Finally, we must turn away from the doomsayers who see only the dark side of the world. We have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in material -]2- '9 goods. Now we need to speak to the good in each other. But we need to do more than speak — we need to act. As parents, we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace, and the legitimacy of profit. As business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually serving as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers. As n "i t i v. pn s . WP mu s t d em a nd t ha t t he n ews m ed i a make some effort to understand our economic system and to report the third side of our free-enterprise story. As voters, we must make certain that our elected officials — from D.C. to City Hall — understand that good economics is good politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years as a going, growing nation. Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping our society. Thank you. FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY, 10:00 A.M., EDT TUESDAY, MAY 6, 1975 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE DAVID R. MACDONALD ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY (ENFORCEMENT, OPERATIONS, AND TARIFF AFFAIRS) BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE TUESDAY, MAY 6, 1975 Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: I am pleased to appear before you today to discuss the U.S. National Central Bureau of the International Criminal Police Organization - INTERPOL. With me today are James B. Clawson, Deputy Assistant Secretary (Operations); James J. Featherstone, Deputy Assistant Secretary (Enforcement); Louis B. Sims, Chief, National Central Bureau. U.S. Membership and Funding By statute (22 U.S.C. 263a), the Office of the Attorney General, U.S. Department of Justice, is the "Office of Responsibility" for INTERPOL in the United States. In 1958, the Attorney General designated the Department of the Treasury the official liaison with INTERPOL. There are currently ten full-time positions assigned to INTERPOL. One of these positions is presently located at the Headquarters of INTERPOL in France, and the remaining nine are located in the Main Treasury Building in Washington, D. C. These positions are funded as follows: Two (2) by the Department of Justice; two (2) by the Office of the Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department; two (2) by the U.S. Secret Service; three (3) by the U.S. Customs Service; and one (1) by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. The Fiscal,Year 1975 Department of the Treasury Salaries and Expenses Appropriation for the Office of the Secretary, in addition to the two (2) permanent positions, contains resources for travel and communication costs and for $80,000 for the INTERPOL annual dues. The Fiscal Year 1976 budget request for this appropriation does not reflect any increase over the '75 level. Public Law 93-468, approved October 24, 1974, increased the limit on INTERPOL dues from $80,000 to $120,000. We are anticipating an additional funding requirement of approximately $120,000 in Fiscal Year 1977. In September of 1974, the INTERPOL 43rd General Assembly voted an increase in the INTERPOL annual dues from 4850 Swiss francs per budget unit to 5900 Swiss francs per budget unit. The United States, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom and France pay'60 budget units each or the equivalent of 354,000 Swiss francs. Other member countries pay correspondingly less. In addition to the increased budget unit, currency fluctuations have increased the dollar equivalent of the budget unit as expressed in Swiss francs. For this reason, annual dues have ranged in value from $117,420 in October, 1974, to $147,000 in February, 1975, and are now valued at approximately $138,000. The current U.S. dues represent 5.8 percent of the overall - 5 1952, the German Federal Republic was allowed to join INTERPOL. INTERPOL presently consists of 120 member countries with the General Secretariat located in Saint Cloud, France, outside of Paris. The Secretary General is a French citizen named Jean Nepote. The current President of INTERPOL is Mr. William L. Higgitt, recently retired Commissioner of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and presently head of the Canadian Safety Council, who was elected in 1972 by the General Assembly. Mr. Jean Nepote, the current Secretary General of INTERPOL, was elected by the General Assembly in 1963, and was re-elected in 1968 and 1973. Mr. Nepote is a "Commissaire Divisionnaire" of the French Surete Nationale, a "Chevalier" in the French Legion of Honour, and has been decorated by a number of other countries. INTERPOL is an intergovernmental organization composed of member countries represented by their law enforcement officials. This normally is the head of the National Police. In the U.S., the designated representative is the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury who is responsible for law enforcement. The National Central Bureau of each country maintains its sovereignty by operating within its country's laws. In the United States, the National Central Bureau operates by yy - 3 budget of 5,919,520 Swiss francs. In 1974-75, the U.S. made a one-time, non-recurring, voluntary contribution of $135,000 from Foreign Assistance Funds for International Narcotics Control administered by the Department of State. In accordance with normal practice in the case of Foreign Assistance Funds, Senator Inouye and Congressman Passman, Chairmen of the Foreign Operations Subcommittees of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees, were advised of this contribution at the time. The U.S. contribution is used to support an INTERPOL liaison office for illegal drug enforcement for Southeast Asia and Latin America. This same program as set up in Europe has been so successful in combatting drug traffic that the number of liaison offices in Europe has been increased this year from three (3) to five (5). The European program is funded by contributions from European countries. History of INTERPOL Our research indicates the following to be accurate with respect to the history of international cooperation by national police organizations. An organization called the International Criminal Police Commission (ICPC) was organized in 1923 and was located in Vienna, Austria. The constitution of the organization at that time required that the head - 4 - ^ of the Austrian police be, by virtue of his office, automatically the Secretary General of ICPC. At the time of the Anschluss in 1938, Nazi forces which occupied Austria deposed the Austrian police chief, took a Nazi literally from the jails of Vienna and installed him as new chief of the Austrian police. The Nazis then claimed that by virtue of the ICPC constitution, this same man automatically assumed a position as head of the ICPC. As a result, cooperation with the ICPC by the free world steadily disappeared and by 1938, when World War II began, the activities of the ICPC outside Nazi controlled areas virtually ceased. In 1942, the Headquarters of the ICPC were transferred to Berlin under unknown circumstances. Whatever was left of the ICPC died with the death of the Third Reich. In 1946, under the leadership of Sweden and other free world countries, several of the countries which had resigned from the ICPC before or during World War II met and determined to form a new organization, headquartered in Paris, France. This time the member countries were smarter. They drafted a constitution which provided for an elected president and elected directors, in order to avoid the outside seizure of the organization as had occurred in 1938. This organization came to be known as INTERPOL. In - 6 statute, and answers to the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and to the Congress. Functions of INTERPOL INTERPOL'S function is to provide the communications mechanism for law enforcement agencies (local, State or Federal), having a foreign investigative requirement, to transmit that requirement to other appropriate foreign agencies. Television drama to the contrary notwithstanding, INTERPOL has no investigative force of its own and carries on no investigations. It has no control over its constituent countries' police forces, so it is unable to do anything other than transmit information or requests for action by one country's police to another country's police. These requests will be complied with if the recipient country sees fit to do so. The requests for information or action which are handled by INTERPOL normally range from a criminal history record check to a full investigation, leading to the subsequent arrest and extradition of an international criminal. The United States National Central Bureau (NCB) activities and efforts are directed toward: 1. Arranging for prompt assistance by foreign police to law enforcement agencies in the United States (local, State and Federal) in their investigative requirements. 2. Arranging for prompt assistance to a foreign investigative requirement in the United States, provided it concerns a criminal investigation and is in accord with United States law. 3. Increasing State and local law enforcement's awareness of the assistance available through INTERPOL in the event they have foreign investigative requirements. In consonance with its function of acting as the medium of communication between foreign and U.S. law enforcement agencies, the United States NCB does not arrange for assistance to law enforcement agencies in the United States regarding their domestic investigative requirements. The FBI has granted the United States NCB access to the FBI's National Crime Information Center (NCIC). This access is granted pursuant to the guidelines established by the FBI for the protection of individual's rights and covers only those records containing information on: 1. Stolen Securities 2. Stolen Motor Vehicles 3. Wanted Persons (Warrants Outstanding) 4. Stolen, Missing or Recovered Guns 5. Stolen Boats 6. Stolen License Plates 7. Computerized Criminal Histories 8 -- 7^ hi Director Clarence M. Kelley of the FBI has states: "The NCIC is not, as some have alleged, a secret intelligencegathering network filled with loosely managed and frivolously gathered information concerning anyone coming to the attention of the police. It has indexed only the names of individuals for whom arrest warrants are outstanding or persons who have had substantial involvement, supported by fingerprint records, with the criminal police system." Member countries of INTERPOL, United States law enforcement agencies or any other organization, person, etc. with whom the United States may come into contact within the course of carrying out its responsibilities, have no direct access to criminal records in the United States. Requests from law enforcement agencies for information contained in the United States are evaluated individually by Federal agents assigned to the United States NCB and arrest or other information is provided as approved (1) by the agency from which the information is obtained and (2) by the responsible agent in the United States NCB. This is known as the "Third Agency Rule", and applies to all exchanges of information between enforcement agencies. The procedure within INTERPOL requires the requesting country to state the nature of its investigative request, which includes identifying its investigation and the reason for the request. If this is not stated along with the request, the receiving country will make a request for that information prior to transmitting the request. The request must be in "7 ^ accord with the laws of the country receiving the request, as well as being related to a criminal offense in both countries. Furthermore, the request must not be in conflict with Article III of the INTERPOL Constitution which reads, "It is strictly forbidden for the organization to undertake any intervention or activities of a political, military, religious or racial character." This Article, of course, does not prohibit a criminal inquiry concerning a political activist who commits generally recognized criminal activity, such as bank robbery. A typical request would concern a case in an INTERPOL member country where John Doe, United States citizen, has become the subject of a criminal investigation. Upon receipt of this information, the United States NCB queries NCIC and determines, for example, that there is a warrant out for the arrest of the subject by the Los Angeles Police Department. The Los Angeles Police are immediately notified of the subject's present location and situation so they can initiate extradition papers through diplomatic channels or commence any other action they deem advisable in the case. The foreign country is notified that the subject is wanted by authorities in the United States and advised of the charge against the subject as well as his criminal history. Through INTERPOL we can locate a United States wanted person and frequently this results in the apprehension and - 10 prosecution of an international criminal. The same situation commonly exists when the subject is a foreign national and is wanted in the United States. If INTERPOL did not exist, the same international inquiries and investigative requests would be made by both U.S. and foreign enforcement agencies in a much more haphazard and costly fashion. The same information would be given out by the receiving agencies on a unilateral basis and without the additional filtering protection provided by the constitution and long standing practices of INTERPOL. By the nature of its function, INTERPOL does not add or subtract any substantive dimension to the law enforcement investigative process. The protection of rights in connection with this process is and must be the responsibility of the law enforcement agencies who approve the transmission of information. INTERPOL is a useful communications tool used by national enforcement agencies. This concludes my statement, and my associates and I will be pleased to answer any questions that the Committee may have. Thank you. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 May 7, 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR CORRESPONDENTS: For information call: (202) 456-6757 Following is the text of a telegram Albert Rees, Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability, sent to Representative Norman A. Murdock of the Ohio legislature in response to his request for a Council opinion on a bill which would compel prices to appear on grocery store items: We are informed that H. 720, a bill to require prices in arabic numbers to be marked on merchandise displayed for sale, is being considered by the Ohio legislature. Such bills would deprive consumers of much of the considerable savings to be achieved through automated checkstands. Such systems should be given a complete and fair test to ascertain whether or not adequate price information can be given consumers through shelf labels and itemized receipts, H. 720 would prevent testing and therefore, we urge that it be defeated. o 0 o CWPS-41 Department of theTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 97H FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 6, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 3-1/4-YEAR TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $2.75billion of the $5.3 billion of tenders received from the public for the 3-1/4-year notes auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield 7.60% 1/ Highest yield Average yield 7.74% 7.70% The interest rate on the notes will be 7-5/8%. At the 7-5/8% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.001 High-yield price Average-yield price 99.604 99.717 The $2.75 billion of accepted tenders includes 15% of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $0.6 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $2.35 billion of tenders were accepted at the average-yield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Excepting 5 tenders totaling $325,000 Department of the WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE WO4-2041 T7T May 6, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL OFFERING The Department of the Treasury, by this public notice, invites tenders for two series of Treasury bills to the aggregate amount of $5,600,000,000 , or thereabouts, to be issued May 15, 1975, as follows: 91-day bills (to maturity date) in the amount of $2,800,000,000, or thereabouts, representing an additional amount of bills dated February 13, 1975, and to mature August 14, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XJ0), originally issued in the amount of $2,499,115,000, the additional and original bills to be freely interchangeable. 182-day bills, for $2,800,000,000, or thereabouts, to be dated May 15, 1975, and to mature November 13, 1975 (CUSIP No. 912793 XX9). The bills will be issued for cash and in exchange for Treasury bills maturing May 15, 1975, outstanding in the amount of $4,805,195,000, of which Government accounts and Federal Reserve Banks, for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities, presently hold $2,786,370,000. These accounts may exchange bills they hold for the bills now being offered at the average prices of accepted tenders. The bills will be issued on a discount basis under competitive and noncompetitive bidding, and at maturity their face amount will be payable without interest. They will be issued in bearer form in denominations of $10,000, $15,000, $50,000, $100,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 (maturity value), and in book-entry form to designated bidders. Tenders will be received at Federal Reserve Banks and Branches up to one-thirty p.m., Eastern Daylight Saving time, Monday, May 12, 1975. Tenders will not be received at the Department of the Treasury, Washington. Each tender must be for a minimum of $10,000. multiples of $5,000. Tenders over $10,000 must be in In the case of competitive tenders the price offered must be expressed on the basis of 100, with not more than three decimals, e.g., 99.925. Fractions may not be used. Banking institutions and dealers who make primary markets in Government (0VE& , -2securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon may submit tenders for account of customers provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. own account. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their Tenders will be received without deposit from incorporated banks and trust companies and from responsible and recognized dealers in investment securities. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 2 percent of the face amount of bills applied for, unless the tenders are accompanied by an express guaranty of payment by an incorporated bank or trust company. Public announcement will be made by the Department of the Treasury of the amount and price range of accepted bids. Those submitting competitive tenders will be advised of the acceptance or rejection thereof. The Secretary of the Treasury expressly reserves the right to accept or reject any or all tenders, in whole or in part, and his action in any such respect shall be final. Subject to these reservations, noncompetitive tenders for each issue for $200,000 or less without stated price from any one bidder will be accepted in full at the average price (in three decimals) of accepted competitive bids for the respective issues. Settlement for accepted tenders in accordance with the bids must be made or completed at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch on May 15, 1975, in cash or other immediately available funds or in a like face amount of Treasury bills maturing May 15, 1975. ment. Cash and exchange tenders will receive equal treat- Cash adjustments will be made for differences between the par value of maturing bills accepted in exchange and the issue price of the new bills. Under Sections 454(b) and 1221(5) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954. the amount of discount at which bills issued hereunder are sold is considered to accrue when the bills are sold, redeemed or otherwise disposed of, and the bills are excluded from consideration as capital assets. Accordingly, the owner of bills (other than life insurance companies) issued hereunder must include in his Federal income tax return, as ordinary gain or loss, the difference between the price paid for the bills, whether on original issue or on subsequent purchase, and the amount actually received either upon sale or redemption at maturity during the taxable year for which the return is made. Department of the Treasury Circular No. 418 (current revision) and this notice, prescribe the terms of the Treasury bills and govern the conditions of their issue. Copies of the circular may be obtained from any Federal Reserve Bank or Branch. Department of theJREASURY IASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE WO4-2041 FOR RELEASE ON DELIVERY u ' Statement of The Honorable Jack F. Bennett Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs Before the Subcommittee on Foreign Commerce and Tourism , Senate Committee on Commerce May 7, 1975 Foreign Investment in the United States Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to have the opportunity to present to this Committee the Administration's view on foreign investment in the United States and on the three bills, S.1303, S.329 and S.995, which are now being considered by your committee. •••?••• The subject of foreign investment in the United States has received intensive attention over the past year in both the Congress and the Executive Branch and there are two basic propositions on which we appear to be in agreement: -- Foreign investment in the United States is, on the whole, beneficial and, subject to limited restrictions, should continue to be welcomed as a healthy input to our economy. -- More information on foreign investment should be available to all branches of the Government and to the public. WS-293 - 2- It is my impression, however, that the bills before you do not adequately take into account the fact that steps have already been taken to make that information available and do not adequately take into account that in these circumstances new legislation could have the practical effect of deterring beneficial new investment in the United States. Legislation discriminating against foreign investors could result in foreign investors discriminating against us. Data on Foreign Investment In view of the sharp increase in the investment potential of the oil-producing countries, it is understandable that a concern over foreign investment in the United States and a desire for more information have developed. However, I think there may be some miscon- ceptions about the total magnitudes involved, and about the capability the Government now has to follow developments in this area. We have a substantial amount of information on new inflows with respect to both overall amounts and the acquisition of operating control over individual publicly traded firms, and we believe that many of the concerns frequently expressed about the adequacy of this information are unfounded. - 3- oOl The published data on foreign direct investment inflows into the United States show figures of $2.5 billion in 1973 and $2.3 billion in 1974. However, these figures drop to $1.8 billion in each year, when one set of transactions -- those associated with the foreign purchase of a U.S.-incorporated company, whose entire operations are abroad -- are excluded. Of the remaining $1.8 billion a major part, of course, represented capital inflows into companies that were already foreigncontrolled. The flows of foreign portfolio investment into U.S. securities (excluding U.S. Government issues) actually fell from $4.8 billion in 1973 to $2.1 billion in 1974. The major portion of this decline consisted of a decrease in foreign purchases of stocks -- from $2.8 billion in 1973 to $0.5 billion in 1974. Even after taking into account the depressed conditions on U.S. stock markets, it is obvious that foreigners did not rush in to take advantage of bargain prices. In the early months of this year, with the rise in U.S. stock prices, foreign interest in portfolio investment in U.S. stocks seems to have picked up. There is no evidence, however, of any trend toward takeover of important segments of U.S. industry by foreign - 4 - interests. Reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission and other sources of information show no significant foreign activity in this regard. According to reports to the SEC during the period January, 1974 through April, 1975 by purchasers of over 5% of the stock in U.S. publicly held companies, their purchases involved 72 U.S. companies. The majority of the U.S. companies were small and the foreign investors were mainly from the U.K., Canada, Netherlands, Germany and Japan. During this period, foreigners gained majority control of only three U.S. industrial companies with assets of over $100 million. In these cases the investors were private European and Canadian companies. OPEC Investment The evidence does not suggest that the United States is being inundated by foreign investment. Thus any concerns presumably are, for the most part, based on the potential for future investment, particularly by the OPEC countries. Some of the alarming estimates of long-run OPEC financial accumulations made last year have, however, already been drastically reduced, and several new sets of projections also suggest a lower level of peak investment accumulation by these countries on the order of $175 to $250 billion y$V in dollars of 1974 purchasing power. In any case, of the estimated $60 billion in total accumulations by OPEC countries in 1974 (which we believe will prove to be their peak year) we estimate that only about three quarters of a billion dollars was placed in long-term private investments in the United States, and the bulk of that investment was made in securities chosen and managed by private U.S. financial institutions. Looking ahead, we predict that the oil producing countries will place a larger proportion of their investments in longer-term debt and equity instruments. We hope that a substantial amount of these investments will take place in the United States, but we must take account of the facts that the rate of investment by the oil producers outside their own countries now appears to be declining and, furthermore, that the percentage coming to the United States seems to be smaller this year than last year. The managers of OPEC funds have indicated to us that they have neither the desire nor the necessary skilled manpower to gain or maintain control over major segments of the U.S. economy. Rather, they are following the diversified investment objectives of institutional investors. Thus, while there may be some additional - 6- cases of major investments similar to the proposed - but not yet final - arrangements between Iran and Pan Am, for instance, we seriously doubt whether any of the major OPEC investors would consider any moves in this area which we might view as inimical to the U.S. national interest. The New Administration Initiative We expect that the likelihood of difficulties arising over OPEC investments in this country will be further minimized by the new Administration initiative with respect to inward investment. You may recall that in testimony on March 4 before the Subcommittee on Securities of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Administration witnesses laid out our new approach to providing more information and to dealing with potential major investments in this country by foreign governments. We believe that this new approach offers us the means to achieve the same basic objectives as the three bills before this Committee while enabling us to avoid the disadvantages inherent in them. Our new initiative involves the establishment of a high-level, interagency Committee on Foreign Investment and a new Office on Foreign Investment which will deal -,- np with these concerns, and make periodic reports on foreign investments here as well as recommendations on any legislation that may be warranted in light of future developments. At the same time, we are making arrange- ments with the pricipal potential foreign governmental investors on advance consultations on major prospective investments in this country. In undertaking these various measures we have taken care to assure that they will not be construed as a break from our traditional policy of neutrality towards incoming foreign investment. Investment decisions, both within and among countries, are affected by psychological factors as well as by laws and regulations. In making such decisions with regard to investments in the United States or any other country, potential foreign investors look at developing trends, the general climate for investment, and the prospects for the future. They consider political as well as economic factors, just as U.S. investors do when they contemplate making investments in other countries. Legislation which singles out foreign investment for discriminatory treatment will inevitably be interpreted as a negative factor for the future. - 8- There is also the question of what effect an apparent change in attitude toward foreign investment by the U.S. Government would have on foreign governments. The question is not primarily whether other governments would retaliate in kind in the short run. Rather it is what such actions by the United States would signal to other governments about our views on the more basic policy issues concerned with the free flow of capital between countries. Throughout the postwar period the United States has been the champion of liberalizing the international flow of trade and capital, and substantial progress has been made. Legislation which appeared to point in the opposite direction could compromise our efforts to minimize artificial impediments to capital in seeking its most productive place of employment. This is not to say that we rule out the possibility that legislation may be necessary at some point in the future. We are aware, as you are, Mr. Chairman, that there may be gaps in our various reporting requirements on foreign investments in this country. The new Office we are establishing will be specifically charged with drawing together the information collected by these various sources and combining it, with the objective of - 9- 4 v obtaining as clear and comprehensive a picture as possible of the activities of foreign investors in the United States. Once that is accomplished the Office can identify the gaps in our existing reporting system and determine what legislation, if any, might be required to fill them. Existing Sources of Information Since it is not generally appreciated how much information on foreign investment is currently available to us and how much new information we will be developing in the months ahead, I think it would be useful for me to give some details. With respect to aggregate data showing overall inflows and trends, our reporting program for the balance of payments yields quarterly data on direct investment and monthly data on portfolio investment with reporting lags of about 3 months and 2 months respectively. The specific data collected under these programs are described in detail in the CIEP/OMB study which the CIEP witness will be submitting to the Committee later today. While no reporting system is all inclusive, there is no reason to believe that these data significantly underestimate the aggregate inflows of foreign capital. Sample tables of some of the data collected by the Treasury are reproduced in Attachment A to my statement. - 10 - With respect to data on investment in individual companies, our main source of information is the filings with the SEC, required by law, by foreign as well as domestic investors acquiring more than 5 percent of any class of equity security of publicly traded corporations. These filings under Section 13D of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 provide detailed information on the identify of the purchaser (although there is no requirement under this section to disclose the partyfs nationality), the source of his funds, the purpose of his acquisition, and his plans for the company. We have compiled the transactions in 1974 and 1975 which appear to have been made by foreign persons. This is presented in Attachment B. Newspapers and trade journals, which normally pick up any transactions of significance, and discussions which businessmen have with U.S. officials are also valuable sources of information on foreign investment. Negotiations on foreign investment in U.S. companies are frequently reported, thus alerting us to potential investments. - 11 - 1 6 Finally, the benchmark surveys being undertaken by the Commerce and Treasury Departments in accordance with legislation introduced by this Committee will give us a wealth of detail. The Treasury survey will show as of end-1974, foreign portfolio investment, in the form of both equity and debt, in U.S. companies with assets of more than $1 million where foreign control is less than 10 percent. This information will be broken down to show foreign holdings by type of foreign investor from each foreign country. Attachment C to my statement, which is a copy of two of the forms required from reporters, shows this detail. While the Treasury survey is aimed at portfolio investment, it will also produce abbreviated reports from U.S. companies which are 10 percent or more owned by foreigners, that is, through direct investment. These reports will show for each such company asset size, total revenue, kind of business and the percentage of foreign ownership. We expect to have a very substantial proportion of our data ready for inclusion in the preliminary report, which will be submitted to Congress in October. The Commerce Department survey will give even more detail on direct investment in the United States. - 12 - Proposed Legislation We already gather a substantial amount of information on foreign investment in the United States through the reporting requirements of a variety of agencies, and this data will soon be supplemented by the results of the benchmark surveys now in progress. Moreover, it is intended that the new Office of Foreign Investment in the United States will be drawing all this information together for the first time to give us as comprehensive a picture as possible of the extent and nature of foreign investment here. The new Office will also be charged with the task of identifying the gaps in our existing system and making recommendations for legislation or administrative action to fill in these gaps. Therefore, we feel that we should wait and see the results of these extensive efforts rather than legislating new measures at this time. Furthermore, we are troubled by provisions of S.1303 which would go well beyond existing data-gathering programs in the type of investment to be reported and the level of ownership or control which would trigger a reporting obligation. In particular, we do not see any justification for the broad discretion granted to the lot Secretary of Commerce under the bill to lower the reporting threshold below the five percent level that is currently the statutory basis for the SEC's reporting requirements. Further, the extension of reporting obligations to investment in nonpublic companies having assets of $3,000,000 or more as provided for in this bill, seems unwarranted without some evidence that investment in all such companies by foreigners would be of concern to ^ us as a matter of course. lacking. We feel that such evidence is In fact, the industries that would be of greatest concern to us are already subject to special •-. disclosure rules administered by the Federal regulatory commissions and the Defense Department. Section 6(b)(1)(C) of the bill would extend the reporting requirements to other business arrangements which would give a foreign investor "predominant influence11 over a public or nonpublic company covered by the Act, or result in the ownership or control of more than $1,000,000 in property in the United States. We feel that this provision is extremely overbroad and would tend to have a chilling effect on foreign investment in a variety of constructive business arrangements. Foreign investors would have to guess at which arrangements might trigger - 14 - the attention of the Administration or bring about a reporting obligation. This is of particular concern in that the bill would impose a reporting obligation directly on the foreign investor as well as on other persons. In addition, the inclusion in this provision of $1,000,000 worth of U.S. property of unspecified type seems lacking in foundation. There would not appear to be any reason for United States concern over ownership or control of $1,000,000 of property without regard to its type or importance. However, the bill would permit the Secretary to establish an even lower figure. We perceive the same difficulty of rather low threshold figures in Section 6(b)(1)(D) dealing with investments in real estate. In the aggregate, these new disclosure requirements would place a Federal reporting burden on many persons not presently so affected without a showing of need for such additional detailed information. We should bear in mind that our current reporting requirements are considered by many firms and individuals as onerous. The bill also contains several provisions that would severely hamper the ability of the Government to develop well-coordinated positions and recommendations on foreign investment and to give all appropriate agencies an opportunity to contribute to the process. For example, Section 5(7) of the bill would permit the new agency which would administer this Act, in the discretion of its Director, to propose additional programs in furtherance of the policy of the Act to the pertinent Congressional committees without prior submission or clearance by any other agency or officer of the United States. In addition, Section 7 would authorize the Secretary to issue statements and guidelines on foreign investment in companies and industries important to the United States' national security, foreign policy, and economic security. In effect, the head of a single department would be given the sole power to make economic policy judgments of a sort which should result from comprehensive interagency review within the Executive branch in cooperation with Congress. The provisions governing the confidentiality of information for purposes of publication or release to other agencies are too indefinite to be soundly implemented by the new administration or to provide adequate assurances to investors. Section 6(d), for example, provides for rather broad discretion on the - 16 - part of the agency as to what information can be published. This vagueness would be of serious concern to investors in view of the apparent authority of the agency to obtain information submitted in confidence to other Federal agencies. It would also create enforcement problems not now present since some firms feel very strongly about the confidentiality of the data now supplied. Moreover, the interrelationship of the provisions of Section 8 relating to obtaining information from, or releasing it to, other agencies is not clear. Paragraph (a) of that section seems to grant to the agency very broad discretion in the release of information. However, it is not clear how much this authority is restrained by the confidentiality provisions of Paragraph (b). In addition, the possibility that IRS information could be obtained would violate the privacy of tax return information. Finally, the authority contained in the section to release information to foreign governments seems both unnecessary and unwise, and no standards are provided as to the circumstances where this might be done. My remarks on the extensive detail called for in S.1303 are also applicable to S.329, which would establish even lower thresholds for reporting, going down to one-half of one percent of the outstanding marketable securities of U.S. firms. This would entail a tremendous reporting burden for no significant benefit and would be quite costly for the new Pffice to process and analyze effectively. S.995 would require the approval of the Secretary of Commerce for foreign government investment in the United States above certain minimum levels. The Administration recognizes the new circumstances arising from the sharp increase in oil prices which presumably have prompted this bill. It is for this reason that we are making arrangements with the principal governmental investors for advance consultations on major investments in the United States. We already have had clear indications that those countries recognize our legitimate concerns regarding the potential for investments of a controlling nature in U.S. firms by countries that are accumulating large investable reserves. In certain instances, such as the recent Iranian negotiations with Pan Am, they have already informally sought advance concurrence of the U.S. Government. In addition, the communique following the meeting of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia Joint Commission said that the two governments "agreed that each government would consult with the other regarding significant undertakings" in the other government's country. - 18 - We feel that this kind of cooperative preventive approach is sufficient to safeguard against possible unwanted investments by foreign governments and is preferable to restrictive legislation which would likely be regarded as a signal of a hostile U.S. attitude toward all investment by foreign governments and thereby deter much desirable investment. Mr. Chairman, I feel that developments thus far plus the measures recently announced by the Administration make new legislation as proposed in these three bills unnecessary at this time, and that these bills would institutionalize procedures which both the Congress and the Executive Branch might later find to be a cure worse than the disease. I want to reiterate, however, that the Administration does not foreclose the possibility that some legislation may be needed at a later time. If this should be the case, we would hope to work closely with the Congress to help design the best possible legislation. The Foreign Investment Study Act of 1974, which was initiated by this Committee, is a good example of how close cooperation between the two branches of government can produce good legislation. We look forward to a continuing dialogue with this Committee in a spirit of cooperation. ATTACHMENT A 118 Treasury Bulletin .CAPITAL M O V E M E N T S Section V - Transactions in Long-Term Securities by Foreigners Reported by Banks and Brokers in the United States Table CM-V-1. - Foreign Purchases and Sales of Long-Term Domestic Securities by Type (In millions of dollars: negative figures indicate net sales by foreigners or a net outflow of capital from the United Stat.Pgl Marketable Treasury bonds and notes Corporate and other securities Net foreign purchases Calendar year or month Foreign countries Total 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1974-Feb... Mar... Apr... May... June.. July.. Aug... Sept.. Oct. .. Nov... Dec... 1975-Jan. p. Feb. p, 1/ 36 689 127 512 -728 671 -338 -76 -616 -43 -489 -45 56. 1,672 3,316 305 -418 -45 157 -237 -28 -101 23 -37 -116 70 132 196 68 341 Official institutions -59 -20 -245 48 -380 -115 -41 1,661 3,281 465 -646 -37 -172 .-7 -73 -60 25 150 118 182 Other foreigners -237 524 -98 -20 -207 369 36 95 56 30 51 59 123 -119 -22 5 70 -39 -10 16 -50 -3 14 -11 26 38 50 20 10 102 International and regional 273 165 224 532 -521 302 -315 -151 -427 -121 -161 11 -25 130 57 -165 156 31 166 -82 29 -97 9 47 -82 32 57 26 -60 57 Gross foreign purchases 1,224 1,217 1,730 1,744 1,780 1,867 1,149 1,077 680 585 443 528 691 2,414 4,358 2,738 3,130 422 264 225 427 161 120 313 183 20J. 403 352 245 599 Data include transactions in issues of states and municipalities, and of corporations and other agencies of the U.S. Government. Net foreign Gross purchases Net foreign of sales corporate foreign and other purchases securities 1,188 -39 17 528 435 73 1,603 252 50 1,231 223 -99 2,508 60 -51 1,196 207 9 1,487 -173 176 1,153 -375 38 1,296 678 1,011 629 1,070 313 932 4,234 1,964 574 2,688 1,202 634 1,582 956 742 1,435 703 1,043 4,068 1,881 2,433 1,979 3,547 1,615 2,073 467 -144 13 107 139 188 462 203 222 455 66 51 261 242 251 97 -5 -7 350 190 268 298 178 180 132 226 205 271 224 211 r 156 207 228 178 61 251 258 -287 247 M^ p Preliminary, Bonds 1/ Stocks Gross Net Gross iross foreign foreign foreign foreign purchases sales purchases purchases 361 369 442 317 308 256 461 675 1,553 2,243 4,446 3,054 2,499 2,967 4,723 5,812 8,181 459 777 549 327 653 541 820 914 895 919 586 424 271 Revised. 344 296 392 416 359 246 284 637 542 1,929 2,481 1,853 1,543 2,263 2,842 3,832 6,566 603 638 346 261 411 546 629 737 669 695 379 363 557 -56 363 202 323 111 198 -349 -413 -333 757 2,270 1,487 626 731 2,188 2,785 456 157 49 19 -15 8 -2 78 2 -22 -13r 21 190 534 1,397 2,224 1,977 3,067 2,260 2,724 3,076 3,720 4,740 8,033 13,118 12,429 8,927 11,626 14,361 12,762 7,552 743 896 577 576 521 508 580 447 673 604 r 450 731 1,382 Gross foreign sales 1,454 1,862 1,775 2,745 2,149 2,527 3,425 4,133 5,074 7,276 10,848 10,942 8,301 10,894 12,173 9,978 7,09^ 586 846 559 591 513 510 502 445 695 616 429 541 849 r ^ ^ ATTACHMENT A (continued) 125 April 1975 .CAPITAL M O V E M E N T S Section V - Transactions in Long-Term Securities by Foreigners Reported by Banks and Brokers in the United States Table CM-V-9. - Foreign Purchases and Sales of Long-Term Securities, by Type and Country, During February 1975 Preliminary (in millions of dollars) , Gross sales by foreigners Gross purchases by foreigners Domestic securities Marketable Total Treasury purchases bonds and notes wountry Foreign securities Corporate and other Bonds Bonds Stocks Domestic securities Total sales Stocks Marketable Treasury bonds and notes Foreign securities Corporate and other Bonds Bonds Stocks Stocks lOurope: Greece Italy 9 57 I * 119 112 4 24 81 6 1 5 3 373 '. Turkey United Kingdom Yugoslavia 506 13 U.S.S.R 1 1 * 7 * * 5 7 20 3 1 * * * 1 20 83 117 11 * Total Europe 1,313 9>u~ Latin America; Argentina Bahamas Brazil Chile Colomb ia Cuba Mexico Panama Uruguay Venezuela Other Latin American Republics.... Netherlands Antilles and Surinam.. Other Latin America Total Latin America •X * 18 24 * 11 31 * * 1 * 1 21 * •* 80 1 8 5 3 « 2 1 * * 4 * 11 * 5 5 37 38 2 2 5 1 •X * * 21 104 12 8 261 * 33 7 * 1 20 > 4 1 11 * * 50 119 * * 415 209 502 218 -> * * 1 * 35 1 21 * 1 # 169 1 2 * 13 37 213 11 23 195 1 5 2 X 21 * 3 * " * * 1 2 2 Total international ajid regional.. J__ss than $500,000. 5 •X 103 # 3 * * * 1 1 8 * * * * il * « 1 8 4 * * 5 2 23 35 101 * 9. -X • 36 * 10 36 21 ¥ « • * 3 •X •X •X 4 • * * * * « * -X 114 11 * * 1 38 * 1 * 13 * 63 48 33 * * 1 45 1 - X 81 • * 46 6 4 X 4 X * * « 6_ 4 * •X £_ 1 - - * * •X - •K * 1,961 244 294 849 65 3 14 5 * 1 272 150 8 6 263 7 1 1__ 430 264 ~134~" 2,391 14 258 X 5 5 118 X 1 1 i7~ * * X 4 _ 1,382 X 86 _ 3 - 1 1 271 56 133 71 25 63 113 599 5 27 59 1,369 X 2 148 267 94 * 569 528 2,504 1 3 130 * X x 1_ 3 2 * * * * 9 - * 6 5 13 30 X •X * * 6 6 -X * 7 46 -* 1 1 243 * * 1 110 13 * 1 5 2 69 38 * 96 •X X 7 * 1 * * International and regional: i •* 1 8 * * 176 88 10 73 130 322 3 2,410 200 999 501 X Other countries: Australia 34 29 * * * 1 17 3 31 1 * 83 65 5 17 35 4 2 5 2 209 • * 22 * * 6 * 1 150 Africa: Morocco South Africa Zaire Other Africa -X 46 1 9 5 * 3 1 * 1 22 17 X Korea Philippines Thailand Other Asia X- * 5 68 Asia: China, People's Republic of China, Republic of (Taiwan) Hong Kong * 8 X 6 66 * 1 10 6 146 45 • 4 9 3 45 1 * 108 89 5 25 63 5 2 7 3 241 * 390 * 13 * 899 -x • 5 5 * 4 2 1 2 163 * 88 13 7 -* 117 3 10 • 8 39 1 * 104 90 3 16 49 6 1 5 1 324 -* 251 * 2 * 557~ * * 402 3 150 153 849~~ "555" 173 - - "17T y(° Attachment B Section 13D Acquisition Reports by Foreign Investors, January 1974 - April 1975 The following compilations represent chronological listings of security acquisitions by apparent foreign beneficial holders, as reported on Schedules 13D filed with the Securities and Exchange Comrftission pursuant to Rules 13D-1 of the Rules and Regulations under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Schedule 13D does not require specific disclosure of the citizenship or domicile of persons controlling an acquiring entity although this is given in most cases. While a person must report within 10 days when his holdings reach over five percent of a class of security, the percentage amount of outstanding securities of the issuer held following the acquisition is not required. To the extent, therefore, that independent sources were required to be utilized in providing information on domicile and percentage holdings, the lists must be recognized to be incomplete and to represent approximations. The security acquisition list involves abstractions from the monthly Statistical Bulletins and the daily News Digests, published by the S.E.C., which are based upon statistics compiled from the Schedule 13D reports by the Office of Registrations and Reports. The Statistical Bulletins and News Digests include the domicile country of the acquiring company or individual and percentage of securities held, where readily apparent from the Schedule 13D report filed by the acquirer. Information, including the domicile of possible foreign acquirers and the percentage of securities of the issuer held following the acquisition, when not indicated in the Statistical Bulletin, has been derived from an examination of certain of the Schedule 13D reports and certain independent reference sources, including the Moody's manuals. Transactions not involving U.S. controlled or domiciled issuers have been omitted to the extent possible. Amended acquisition reports, identified by an asterisk are made when there are any changes in security holdings above the 5% level, or any other material changes in the contents of the original report. Thus, it is possible to follow changes in the amount of stock held, once the initial 13D report is filed. - 1 - Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Date Filed • Hartford National Bank and Trust Co., Trustee (United States Philips Trust) (Netherlands) North American Philips Corp. (Del.) Common Stock 6,278,283 shs. (61%) 1-2-74 Hanson Holdings, Inc. (an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Hanson Trust Ltd. (United Kingdom) Fitzwilliam Resources Ltd. (Ireland) Gable Industries, Inc. (Me.) Common Stock - 534,200 shs. (22%) on consummation of Stock Purchase agreement with four shareholders Intercontinental Energy Corp. (Del.) Common Stock 134,000 shs. (22%) 1-2-74 *Prixilla S.A. (Switzerland) Pricel S.A. (France) Dymo Industries, Inc. (Cal.) Capital Stock - 426,200 shs. (16%) 1-17-74 Canadian and Foreign Investment Trust Ltd. (Scotland) Invent Inc. (Del.) Common Stock - 20,000 shs.(1.4%) 1-30-74 Scottish American Investment Co., Ltd. (Scotland) Invent Inc. (Del.) Common Stock - 51,000 shs.(3.5%) 1-30-74 Scottish Northern Investment Trust Ltd. (Scotland) Invent Inc. (Del.) Common Stock - 60,000 shs.(4.2%) 1-30-74 Standard Life Assurance Co. (Scotland) Invent Inc. (Del.) Common Stock - 7 5,000 shs.(5.2%) 1-30-74 U.B. (Holdings) U.S., Ltd. (Sub. of English Corp.) Keebler Co. (Del.) Common Stock - 520,002 shs.(30%) 2-1-74 Fitzwilton Ltd. (Ireland) National Mine Service Co. (W.Va.) Common Stock - 103,000 shs.(7%) 2-4-74 (* Amended or Supplemental Reports) 1-7-74 - 2 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership *Edmond de Rothschild California European CoCalrop, S.A. Lafayette Corp. (Luxembourg) Walter Haefner Holding AG (Switzerland) Bancal Tri-State Corp. (Del.) Common Stock - 650,550 shs. (20%) 2-5-74 Wyly Corp. (Del.) Common Stock - 804,400 shs.(10%) 2-11-74 Date Filed *Liquifin Aktiengesell- Ronson Corp. (N.J.) 2-11-74 schaft Liquigas S.p.A. Common Stock - 1,375,848 shs.(31%) (Liechtenstein & Italy) (Above shares purchased pursuant to a tender offer which has been extended to February 22, 1974) David Jones Ltd. Buffurns' (Cal.) 2-15-74 (Australia) Common Stock - 510,357 shs.(53%) 6% Debentures 2,451,000 Prin.Amt. 5-1/2% Debentures 309,500 Prin.Amt. (Above purchased pursuant to the tender offer which has been extended to March 8, 1974) *Liquifin AktiengesellRonson Corp. (N.J.) 2-15-74 schaft Liquigas S.p.A. Common Stock - 1,405,365 shs. (32%) (Liechtenstein & Italy) (Above shares purchased pursuant to the tender offer which was extended to February 22, 1974) *Compagnie de SaintCertain-teed Products Corp.(Md.) 2-19-74 Gobain-Pont-A-Mousson Common Stock - 3,453,237 shs. (31%) (France) Common Stock 600,000 shs. on conversion of Pfd *Prixilla S.A. Dymo Industries, Inc. (Cal.) 2-19-74 (Switzerland) Pricel Common Stock - 438,100 shs. (17%) S.A. (France) Bel-Fran Investments Ltd. Bel-Cal Holdings Ltd. Bel-Alta Holdings Ltd.(Canada) *David Jones Ltd. (Australia) Far West Financial Corp. (Del.) Capital Stock - 106,600 shs.(6%) 2-20-74 Buffurns' (Cal.) 2-25-74 Common Stock - 849,021 shs. (89%) fl 1 ^ 2 ! Deben tures $397,500 Prin.Amt. 6% Debentures $3,079,000 Prin.Amt. (Above purchased pursuant to the tender offer through February 20, 1974) - 3 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership *Liquifin Aktiengesellschaft Liquigas S.p.A. (Liechtenstein & Italy) Ronson Corp. (N.J.) Common Stock - 1,530,417 shs.(34%) (The above shares have been purchased as of February 22, 1974, pursuant to the tender offer which has been temporarily stayed until further order of the Court) IMC Magnetics Corp. (N.Y.) Common Stock - 36,300 shs.(5%) Common Stock - 200,000 shs. on conversion of Note National Mine Service Co.(W.Va.) Common Stock - 207,735 shs.(14%) Bancal Tri-State Corp. (Del.) Common Stock - 660,600 shs.(21%) Japan International Technology Corp. (Sub. of Japanese Corp.) *Fitzwilton Ltd. (Ireland) *Edmond de Rothschild California European Co Calrop, S.A. Lafayette Corp. ( Luxembourg) *David Jones Ltd. (Australia) Schlesinger European Investors Ltd. (United Kingdom) Accident and Casualty Insurance Co. of Winarthur, Switzerland (Switzerland) Chevy Chase Property Co Ltd. Foxwood Investors Inc. (Bermuda and Netherlands Antilles) *Pricel S.A. (France) Prixilla S.A. (Switzerland) Date Filed 2-26-74 3-1-74 3-6-74 3-7-74 Buffurns' (Cal.) 3-8-74 Common Stock 943,022 shs. (99%) 5-1/2% Debentures-$315,000 Prin.Amt. 6% Debentures - $3,251,000 Prin.Amt. (Above securities purchased pursuant to the tender offer through 3-6-74) Overseas Securities Co., Inc. (N<.Y.) 3-11-7 Capital Stock - 45% of the outstanding shares on consummation of the agreement between SEI and Overseas CNA Financial Corp. (Del.) 3-12-74 Common Stock - 1,917,428 shs.(6%) Conv. Series A Pfd - 530,013 shs. Combined Properties Corp. (Del.) Common Stock - 77,400 shs. (5%) 3-13-74 Dymo Industries, Inc. (Cal.) Common Stock - 452,700 shs.(17%) 3-15-74 - 4 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership *Stabetag AG (Switzerland) Nachman Corp. (111.) Common Stock - 570,125 shs.(68%) Ciba-Geigy Corp. (Sub. of Swiss Corp.) Funk Seeds International,Inc.(Del.)3-22-74 Common Stock - 2,165,754 shs.(64%) (2,114,754 of above shares were purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer) Savin Business Machines Corp.(N.Y.)3-25-74 Common Stock - 20,000 shs.(.07%) Common Stock - 150,000 shs. on exercise of Warrants CNA Financial Corp. (Del.) 3-26-74 Common Stock - 2,038,728 shs.(6.2%) Conv. Series A Pfd - 530,013 shs. Ricoh of America, Inc. (A wholly-owned subsidiary of Ricoh Co., Ltd. (Japan) *Accident and Casualty Insurance Co. of Winterhur, Switzerland (Switzerland) *Fitzwilton Ltd. (Ireland) *Accident and Casualty Insurance Co. of Winterthur, Switzerland (Switzerland) California European CoCalrop, S.A. Lafayette Corp. Edmond de Rothschild ( Luxembourg) *Pricel S.A. (France) Prixilla S.A. (Switzerland) National Mine Service Co.(W.Va.) Common Stock - 310,735 shs.(21%) Date Filed 3-22-74 4-3-74 CNA Financial Corp. (Del.) 4-4-74 Common Stock - 2,189,228 shs.(6.7%) Series A Conv.Pfd. - 530,013 shs. Bancal Tri-State Corp. (Del.) San Francisco, Calif.) Common Stock - 670,600 shs.(21%) 4-5-74 Dymo Industries, Inc. (Emeryville, 4-10-74 Cal.) Common Stock - 454,700 shs. (18%) - 5 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership •Japan International Technology Corp. (Sub. of Japanese Corp.) IMC Magnetics Corp. (Westbury 4-18-74 N.Y.) Common Stock - 45,300 shs. ( 7%) Common Stock - 200,000 shs. on conversion of Note Ronson Corp. (Woodbridge,N.J.) 4-22-74 Common Stock - 1,539,011 shs.(34%) *Liquifin Aktiengesllschaft (Liechten stein) (Italy) Ivaco Industries Ltd. (Canada) Date Filed Laclede Steel Co. (St.Louis,Mo.)(Del.) 4-24-74 Common Stock - 22,52 0 shs. (6%) Establishments Machkim, Israel Hotels International,Inc. 4-25-74 Enkas, Opil and Norima (Del.) (New York City) (Liechtenstein) Common Stock - 1,256,530 shs.(92%) Harver Educational Services Inc. 4-26-74 Purnell & Sons Ltd. (Freeport, NY) (N.Y.) (England) Common Stock - 68,917 shs.( 22%) *U.B. (Holdings) U.S., Ltd. (Sub. of English Corp.) Triad Holding Corp., S.A. (Luxembourg) *David Jones Ltd. ( Australia) *Japan International Technology Corp. *Fasco A.G. ( Liechtenstein) (Italy) Keebler Co. (Elmhurt, 111.)(Del.) 4-26-74 Common Stock - All outstanding shs. (Through a merger of a wholly owned subsidiary into Keebler) Arizona-Colorado Land and Cattle 5-1-74 Co. (Phoenix, Ariz.)(Ariz.) Common Stock - 500,000 shs.(15%) Buffums' (Long Beach, Calif.)(Cal.)5-6-74 Common Stock - 949,780 shs.(99%) 5-1/2 Debentures-$317,000 6% Debentures - 3,272,000 (Above securities were purchased pursuant to a Tender Offer) IMC Magnetics Corp.(Westbury,N.Y.) 5-6-74 (N.Y.) Common Stock - 60,600 shs. (9%) Seaport Corp. (Pittsburgh,Pa.) 5-6-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 765,570 shs. (44%) Common Stock - 200,000 shs. on exercise of Warrants - 6 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership *Fasco A.G. Fasco, Inc. (Liechtenstein) (Italy) Argus Inc. (Ann Arbor, Mich.) 5-6-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 895,178 shs. (11%) Common Stock - 480,000 shs. on conversion of Preferred Hotel Corp. of Israel (Chicago, 5-9-74 111.) Common Stock - 211,732 shs. (93%) (Above shares including shares issuable on conversion of Debentures, have been purchased under the Tender Offer) Okuraya/Davos International,Inc. 5-10-74 (N.Y.) (New York City) Common Stock - 1,500,000 shs.(27%) Common Stock - 1,000,000 shs. on exercise of option Laclede Steel Co. (St. Louis,Mb.) 5-13-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 31,120 shs.(.08%) Ronson Corp. (Woodbridge,N.J.) 5-15-74 (N.J.) Common Stock - 1,602,981 shs.(39%) TFI Companies, Inc. 5-20-74 (Chicago, 111.) (Del.) Common Stock - 1,786,739 shs.(59%) Certain-Teed Products Corp. 5-22-74 (Valley Forge, Pa.) (Md.) Common Stock - 3,492,737 shs. (31%) Common Stock 600,000 shs. on conversion of Preferred Funk Seeds International, Inc. 5-23-74 (Del.) (Bloomington, 111.) Common Stock - 2,996,165 shs.(89%) *Ropa Anstalt (Israel) Okuraya of America Inc. (Wholly-owned subsidiary of Okuraya Corp. (Japan) *Ivaco Industries, Ltd. (Canada) *Liquifin Aktiengesllschaft (Liechtenstein)(Italy) J. Lyons & Co. Ltd. (England) *Compagnic De SaintGobain-Pont-AMousson (France) *Ciba-Geigy Corp. (Sub. of Swiss Corp.) Date Filed *Schlesinger European Investments Ltd. (United Kingdom) Overseas Securities Co., Inc. 6-3-74 (N.Y.) (New York City) Capital Stock - 122,428 shs. (89%) Burmah Oil Company, Ltd. (Scotland) KMS Industries, Inc. (Ann Arbor, 6-10-74 Mich.) Common Stock - Options to purchase up to 20% of Common Stock .of its sub- - 7 Reporting Company or Individual Capitalfin International Ltd. (Bahamas) (Italy) *Pricel S.A. (France) Prixilla S.A. (Switz.) Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Date Filed sidiary, KMSF Fusion, Inc. have been acquired including rights to convert such shares into an equivalent percent of Common of KMS Industries Signal Companies, Inc. (Beverly 6-11-74 Hills, Calif.) (Del.) Common Stock - 983,492 shs.(4.7%) Conv. Pfd. - 12,877 shs. Dymo Industries, Inc. 6-13-74 (San Francosco, Calif.) (Cal.) Common Stock - 498,800 shs. (19%) Talcott National Corp. 6-14-74 (New York City) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 1,600,000 shs.(52%) Fasco A.G. (Liechtenstein) wholly-owned by Michele Sindona (Italy) Wilkinson Sword Inc., Scripto, Inc. (Atlanta, Ga.)(Ga.) 6-21-74 a wholly-owned Common Stock - 3,284,704 shs.(53.6%) subsidiary of Wilkinson Sword, Ltd. (England) Cascade Steel Rolling Mills, Inc. 6-24-74 C. Itoh & Co., Ltd. (McMinnville, Ore.) (Japan) Common Stock - 195,000 shs. C. Itoh & Co. (America) Inc. CIBA-GEIGY Corp. Airwick Industries, Inc. 6-26-74 (Subsidiary of (Carlstadt, N.J.) (N.J.) Swiss Corp.) Common Stock - 3,294,592 shs.(94.7%) (Above shs. were purchased pursuant to the tender offer which expired on June 21, 1974) Hussel Holding AG Micron Corp. (Salt Lake City, Utah)6-28-74 (Switzerland) Common Stock - 1,6 35,000 shs. (51%) (wholly owned sub. of Common Stock 100,000 shs. German Corp.) on exercise of option Societe de Traction Arthur G. McKee & Co. 7-5-74 et d'Electricite (Independence, Ohio) (Del.) (Belgium) Common Stock - 100,000 shs. (7%) Denison Mines Ltd. Fibreboard Corp. (San Francisco, 7-5-74 (Canada) Calif.) (Del.) Capital Stock - 165,100 shs. (5%) - 8 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Carpano et Pons (France) Garcia Corp. (Teaneck, N.J.) 7-8-74 (N.J.) Common Stock - 800,000 shs. (3.4%) *Schlesinger European Investments Ltd. (England) *Aktiebolaget Electrolux (Sweden) *Ropa Anstalt (Liechtenstein) *Ivaco Industries Ltd (Canada) International Mogul Mines Ltd. Canadian Vendbar Industries, Ltd. (Canada) *C. Itoh & Co., Ltd. C. Itoh & Co. .(U.S.) Inc. (Japan) Multiple Access Ltd. (Canada) Date Filed Overseas Securities Co., Inc. 7-10-74 (N.Y.) (New York City) Capital Stock - 124,828 shs. (88%) National Union Electric Corp. 7-12-74 (Greenwich, Conn) (Del.) Common Stock - 1,522,670 shs.(75%) (An additional 356,033 shares have been tendered pursuant to the Offer and, subject to certain requirements, will be purchased) Hotel Corporation of Israel 7-17-74 (Chicago, 111.) Common Stock - 221,909 shs. (97.9%) including shs. that may be issued on conversion of Debentures (Above shs. acquired pursuant to the Tender Offer which expired on June 4, 1974) Laclede Steet Co. (St. Louis, Mo.) 7-18-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 50,620 shs. (1.3%) Graphic Sciences Inc. (Danbury, 7-22-74 Conn.) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 254,750 shs. (8%) Common Stock - 195,690 shs. on exercise of Option Agreement with an executrix of an estate (Vendbar is a wholly-owned subsidiary Cascade Steel Rolling Mills, Inc. 7-24-74 of Mogul) (McMinnville, Oregon) Common Stock - 195,000 shs. TCC, Inc. (Dallas, Texas) (Tex.) 8-2-74 Common Stock - 4,005,530 shs.(68%) Common Stock 854,126 shs. on conversion of Debenture - 9 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Richard W. Evans (England) Delos International Group, Inc. (Del.) (Waltham, Miss.) Common Stock - 68,500 shs. (6%) *Schlesinger European Investments Ltd. (England) *Japan International Technology Corp. (Sub of Japanese Corp.) McCorquodale & Blades Trust, Ltd. (England) *Ivaco Industries Ltd. (Canada) Dension Mines Ltd. (Canada) Henkel Inc., a whollyowned subsidiary of Henkel GmbH (Germany) international Nickel Co. of Canada, Ltd. (Canada) *Dr. Wolfgang Forster (West Germany) Creusot-Loire (France) Date Filed 8-5-74 Overseas Securities Co., Inc. 8-5-74 (New York City) (N.Y.) Capital Stock - 128,428 shs. (91%) IMC Magnetics Corp. (Westbury,N.Y.)8-5-74 (N.Y.) Common Stock - 88,200 shs. (14%) Falconer Co. (Baltimore,Md.)(Md.) 8-8-74 Common Stock - 158,855 shs. (51%) (Above shs. were purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer) Laclede Steel Co. (St. Louis,Mo.) 8-9-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 52,620 shs. (1.4%) Fibreboard Corp. (San Francisco, 8-9-74 Calif.) (Del.) Capital Stock - 201,200 shs. (6.2%) Clorox Co. (Oakland, Calif.)(Cal.) 8-14-74 Common Stock - 1,459,900 shs. (6.6%) ESB Inc. (Philadelphia, Pa.)(Del.) 8-16-74 Common Stock - 5,287,780 shs. (95%) (Above shares purchased by Inco Holdings Inc., its wholly-owned subsidiary, pursuant to the Tender Offer) R. D. Products, Inc. (Victor, N.Y.)8-21-74 (N.Y.) Common Stock - 583,334 shs. (31%) Alan Wood Steel Co. (Conshohocken, 8-26-74 Pa.) (Pa.) Common Stock - 78,000 shs. (9.7%) Common Stock - 44,4 00 shs. on exercise of Option - 10 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Chloride Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Chloride Group Ltd. (England) Chloride Connrex Corp. (Tampa, 8-30-74 Fla.) (Del.) Common Stock - 499,473 shs. (Above shs. acquired pursuant to the Tender Offer. Chloride Group owns 1,316,500 shares (70%) of the outstanding shares) Indian Head Inc. (New York City) 9-4-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 5,511,200 shs. (90%) Common Stock 34,982 shs. on exercise of Warrants (1,963,619 of above shs. were acquired from TBG. The balance of 3,547,581 shs. and the Warrants were acquired pursuant to the Tender Offer) Bancal Tri-State Corp. (San 9-6-74 Francisco, Calif.) (Del.) Common Stock - 800,100 shs. (24%) Common Stock - 50,000 shs. on exercise of a right under an agreement Laclede Steel Co. (St. Louis, Mo.) 9-9-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 227,480 shs.(6%) Overseas Securities Co., Inc. 9-10-74 (New York City) (N.Y.) Capital Stock - 129,728 shs.(92%) Tejon Ranch Co. (Lebec, Calif.) 9-13-74 (Cal.) Common Stock - 130,460 shs.(10.4%) Thyssen-Bornemisza Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Thyssen-Bornemisza Group N.V. (Netherlands) *Edmond de Rothschild California European Co.-Calrop, S.A. Lafayette Corp. (Luxembourg) *Ivaco Industries Ltd (Canada) *Schlesinger European Investments Ltd. (England) *Superior Oil Co. Canadian Superior Oil Ltd. Superior Farming Co. (Canada) (u.S. controlled) Minerals and Resources Corp. Ltd. (Bermuda) controlled by Anglo American Corp, South Africa Date Filed Engelhard Minerals & Chemical 9-19-74 Corp. (New York City) Common Stock - 8,112,995 shs.(30.5%) Preferred Stock - 122,878 shs.(20.7%) (ownership transferred from HD Development Ltd. (Lux.), a subsidiary of Anglo American, which purchased stock in 1972) - 11 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Academic Pension Plan of University of Alberta (Canada) Great Western United Corp. 9-19-74 (Denver, Colo.) (Del.) Common Stock - 107,700 shs. (5.1%) $1.88 Preferred Stock - 2,400 shs. Fibreboard Corp. (San Francisco 9-23-74 Calif.) (Del.) Capital Stock - 250,000 shs. (7.8%) ESB Inc. (Philadelphia, Pa.)(Pa.) 9-23-74 Common Stock - 5,415,096 shs. (97.1%) (Above shares were purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer by Inco Holdings, Inc., its wholly-owned subsidiary. Magnavox Co. (Fort Wayne, Ind.) 9-25-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 14,250,000 shs.( 8 0%) (Above shares were purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer) Landmark Land Company, Inc. 9-27-74 (Oklahoma City, Okla.)(N.Y.) Common Stock - 721,000 shs.(22%) Denison Mines Ltd. (Canada) •International Nickel Co. of Canada, Ltd. (Canada) North American Philips Development Corp. (Netherlands Sub) Covent North American Properties Ltd. ( Canadian Sub. of English Corp.) *Ivaco Industries Ltd. (Canada) Trade Development Bank Hldgs.S.A.(Luexembourg) Trade Development Bank (Switzerland) Trade Development Bank Internatl. Inc. (Panama) Safrabank S.A. (Panama) Odin Shipping Ltd. (Bermuda) (Controlled by Danish national) Raynard Sportswear,Ltd. ( Hamlet Yuen of Hong Kong is its sole shareholder) Date Filed Laclede Steel Co. (St.Louis,Mo.) 9-27-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 244,180 shs.(6.4%) Republic New York Corp. (New York 9-30-74 City) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 1,665,599 shs. (53%) (Stock transferred between subsidiaries of owner) Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (Houston, 10-3-74 Texas) (Tex.) Common Stock - 210,526 shs.(11.3%) Don Sophisticates, Inc. (New York City) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 400,500 shs. (67%) 10-3-74 -12 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership *Edmond De Rothschild California European Co Calrop, S.A. Lafayette Corp. (Luxembourg) *Hussel Holding AG (Switzerland) (wholly-owned sub. of German Corp.) Bancal Tri-State Corp. (San Francisco, Calif.)(Del.) Common Stock - 875,600 shs. (27%) *North American Philips Development Corp. (Netherlands Sub.) *Denison Mines Ltd. (Canada) *Edmond de Rothschild California European Co. Calrop, S.A. Lafayette Corp. ( Luxembourg) Seamar (Holland) B.V. (Netherlands) *Ivaco Industries Ltd. (Canada) *Japan International Technology Corp. (Sub. of Japanese Corp.) Universe Tankships,Inc. (Liberia) Date Filed 10-3-74 Micron Corp. (Salt Lake City, 10-15-74 Utah) Common Stock - 1,635,000 shs. (51%) Common Stock - 100,000 shs. on exercise of Option Magnavox Co. (Fort Wayne, Ind.) 10-29-74 Common Stock - 14,967,966 shs.(84.1%) (Above shares were purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer) Fibreboard Corp. (San Francisco 10-30-74 Calif.) Common Stock - 277,600 shs. (8.6%) Bancal Tri-State Corp. 11-4-74 (San Francisco, Calif.) (Del.) Common Stock - 876,200 shs. (26.6%) Bond Industries, Inc. (New York 11-11-74 City) (Del.) Common Stock - 395,688 shs. (23%) Common Stock - 120,000 shs. on exercise of Option Laclede Steel Co. (St. Louis,Mo.) 11-15-74 (Del.) Common Stock - 269,180 shs.(7.1%) IMC Magnetics Corp. (Westbury, N.Y.) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 117,400 shs. (18%) 11-18-74 St. John D'el Rey Mining Co.,Ltd. (Cleveland, Ohio) Ordinary Shares - 751,047 shs. (18.86%) 11-21-74 - 13 Reporting Company or Individual *Compagnie de SaintGobainPont-a-Mousson (France) *Japan International Technology Corp. (Sub. of Japanese Corp.) Hugo Mann (West Germany) Bel-Fran Investments Ltd. (Canada) Bel-Cal Holdings Ltd. (Canada) Bel-Alta Holdings Ltd. (Canada) *Japan International Technology Corp. (Sub. of Japanese Corp.) *Ivaco Industries Ltd. (Canada) *Canada Development Corp (Canadian Govt Corp.) Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership ^ Certain-teed Products Corp.(Md.) (Valley Forge, Pa.) Common Stock - 3,893,837 shs.(34.7 Conv. Pfd. - 1,300,000 shs. IMC Magnetics Corp. (Westbury, N.Y.) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 134,700 shs. (21%) Fed-Mart Corp. (San Diego, Calif.) (Cal.) Common Stock - 640,000 shs. (51%) (Above shares to be purchased under an Agreement which also gives Mr. Mann an option to purcha any additional shares to maintain the 51% interest) Cordura Corp. (Chicago, 111.) (Cal.) Common Stock - 235,700 shs. (4.1%) IMC Magnetics Corp. (Westbury, N.Y.) (N.Y.) Common Stock - 176,400 shs.(27%) Common Stock - 200,000 shs. on conversion of Note Laclede Steel Co. (St.Louis,Mo.) (Del.) Common Stock - 299,950 shs. (8%) Texasgulf Inc. (New York City) (Tex.) Common Stock - 9,259,720 shs.(31%) (Ownership of above shares has been transferred to CDC Nederland B.V. (Netherlands), a wholly-owned subsidiary of CDC) - 14 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of. Shares and Percentage of Ownership Thomson-CSF (France) Nucleonic Products Co., Inc. (Canoga Park, Calif.) Common Stock - 287,000 shs. 1-28-75 *Bowater Holdings, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bowater Corp. Ltd. (England) *ABM Corp., a whollyowned subsidiary of Boehringer Mannheim GmbH (Germany) Kay Corp. (Alexandria, Va.) Common Stock - 3,935,313 shs (72%) 1-30-75 *Sanbil Handels Anstalt (Liechtenstein) Pharma-Investment Ltd. (Canada) (Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH (Germany) owns 74% of the voting power in Pharma) *Creusot-Loire (France) *ABM Corp. (Delaware) wholly-owned subsidiary of Boehringer• Mannheim Corp. (Germany) British Assets Trust Ltd Second British Assets Trust Ltd* Independent Investment Co. Ltd. (U.K.) Date Filed Bio-Dynamics, Inc. 2-4-75 (Indianapolis, Ind.) Common Stock - 1,681,902 shs.(94%) (Above shares purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer which has been extended to February 21) General Refractories Co. 2-14-75 (Bala Cynwyd, Pa.) Common Stock - 274,600 shs. Hexagon Laboratories, Inc. 2-18-75 (Bronx, N.Y.) Common Stock - 485,601 shs. Convertible Debentures - $104,200 (Above securities, representing 86% of all shares have been purchased pursuant to the Tender Offer which has been extended to February 25) Alan Wood Steel Co. 3-3-75 (Conshohocken, Pa.) Common Stock - 122,400 shs. (9.7%) Bio-Dynamics Inc. 3-3-75 Common Stock 1,708,145 shs.(95%) (Above shares acquired pursuant to Tender Offer) Bio-Medical Sciences Inc. (Fairfield, N.J.) Common Stock 81,600 shs. (in exchange for 6 1/2% converible subordinated notes, 1-6-82 Series A) 3-4-75 - 15 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership Swiss Reinsurance Co. Plantronics, Inc. Swiss Reinsurance Co. (Santa Clara Calif.) Trust B Common Stock - 82,400 shs. North American Reinsurance Corporation North*American Reassurance Company *Pharma-Investment Ltd Hexagon Laboratories, Inc. (Canada) (Bronx, N.Y.) (Germany) Common Stock - 527,235 shs. Convertible Debentures 112,600 (Above securities representing 93% of all shares purchased pursuant to tender offer of Feb. 25) ESMIL BV Envirotech Corp. (Netherlands) (Menlo Park Calif.) 50% owned by Common Stock 1,188,000 shs. Hoesch, N.G. Germany r Date Filed 3-4-75 3-4-75 3-6-75 3-6-75 Richard Gruner (Liechtenstein) American Airlines New York, N.Y. Common Stock - 1,550,200 shs.(5%) *Pharma-Investment Ltd. (Canada) (Germany) Hexagon Laboratories Inc. 3-17-75 (New York) Common Stock - 537,279 shs. (97%) Convertible Debentures - $114,700 Wisconsin National Life 3-27-75 Insurance Co. Common Stock 1,002,908 shs. (95%) *The Netherlands Insurance Co. N.V. subsidiary of Nationale Nadeslanden N.V. (Netherlands) Haitian Equities Gilbert Pasquet Elsie Malebranche Jean Claude Kenol ( Haiti) Trade Development Bank Hldgs. S.A. (Luxembourg) Trade Development Bank (Switzerland) Trade Development Bank Internatl. Inc. (Panama) Safrabank S.A. (Panama) Basic Food Industries, Inc. (Miami, Fla.) Common Stock 450,000 shs. 3-31-75 Republic New York Corp. (New York City) (N.Y.) Common Stock -1,7*8,899 3-30-74 shs. - 16 Reporting Company or Individual Issuer and Number of Shares and Percentage of Ownership *Edmond de Rothschild California European Co. Caltrop S.A. Lafayette Corp. Luxembourg Loblaw Companies Ltd. (Canada) Bancal Tri-State Corp. (San Francisco Calif. Common Stock 896,500 (27.2%) 4-4-75 Loblaw Inc. (New York) Common Stock 2,835,582 (76.2%) (Tender offer made for balance of shares @ $6) National Tea Company (Illinois) Common Stock 4,650,679 (59.27%) (Tender offer made for 1,830,000 shares @ $7 (80%) Fed-Mart Corp. (San Diego, Calif.) Common Stock - 800,000 (58.7%) (above shares may be purchased under tender offer and stock purchase agreement) Atlas Hotels Inc. (California) Common Stock 134,150 (10%) National Mine Service Co. Common Stock 453,542 shs. (31%) 4-9-75 Loblaw Companies Ltd (Canada) *Hugo Mann (Germany) Carlos Bustamonte (Mexico) *Fitzwilton Ltd. (Ireland) *Thyssen-Bornemsza Inc. (Netherlands) Indian Head Inc. (New York) Common Stock 5,549,718 (91%) Common Stock 35,082 on exercise of warrants Date Filed 4-9-75 4-11-75 4-14-75 4-23-75 ATTACHMENT C U.S. DII'AIHMINI Of" TMl THEASUHY (tMH N n (HNS-74001 Schedule A. E.I. number N a m e <>( re|K)rter. _ REPORTING FORM FOR U.S. ISSUERS OF SECURITIES Idcnt if v stock issue BREAKDOWN OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN U.S. STOCKS AND OTHER EQUITY INTERESTS, BY COUNTRY 1 r I Issue code number I |* CUSIP numbei L_ Total number of countriei reported for this itiue N U M B E R O F S H A R E S H E L D B Y FOREIGN PERSONS AS O F 12/31/74 Country Tol.il code counti les U.S. (Column'. No nationals residing in foreign (4) thtmii|h (9)) (1) (2) Number i __ ALL OTHER RESIDING FOREIGN PERSONS INDIVIDUALS ABROAD Foreign countries (41 No. of No. No. or of (3) No of N o of (3b) 00000 000,000 0 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 Grind total • All countries holdnrt (4a) 00(10 Foreign nationals Official residing in foreign institutions countries (5) \narm No. of idnri <4b] IB«]_ DO,000,000 0000 (6) No" of" tn a rot (Bb) 00,000,000 No ol hnldi-i-, (fin) OOuo No. ol shiiiiu <6h> OO.OOD,000 Investment cos.,insurance cos., pension funds & other employee benefit Bankt, brokers and nominees N o . of holdi; » 7 J £> 0000 funds pi trusts (8) N o ot iliarti (7) No of N o of holdari imiitn _(7b) > J§sL_ '00,000,000 0000 Other business fiims (01 IJQ.OP holdari JSkl 00,000,000. m. 00,000,000 (to appear on tint page only I 't miudnditijct unci mdiraci fioidm^ m U S mrunrii'i l>v lormgn d m i i invmior* 0000 No. of there* A foreign doIK.I inveitor It any foralgn panon owning 1 0 % or mora of thn votmu ttot-k of the U.S. company. (See paragraph 0 ?!><?) of the General Instructions,) 10 ATTACHMENT C (continued) OMB No. 048S-74001 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Schedule B. REPORTING FORM FOR U.S. ISSUERS OF SECURITIES BREAKDOWN OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN U.S. LONG TERM DEBT OBLIGATIONS. BY COUNTRY1 Name of reporter: Idem if y debt issue or obligation: E.I. number |_ J« CUSIP number L Issue code number I I < Foreign currency code 2 [__ Total number of countries reported for this issue (Give all amount* shown below in the currency of ittuei FACE A M O U N T O F ISSUE H E L D B Y FOREIGN P E R S O N S A S OF 12/31/74 Foreign countries Country code No. (1) (2) AA Grand total - All countries Sample entries « • INDIVIDUALS RESIDING Total (Columns (4) through (9)) (3) Face amount No. of Numbers of ittue holdnri . <3a)_ . _..<*)_.. oobbo 000,00000,000,000 U.S. nationals residing in foreign countries (4) No. of holders _ _*»».... 0000 Face amount of issue __(4b] 00,000,000 ALL OTHER FOREIGN PERSONS ABROAD Foreign nationals residing in foreign countries (5) No. of holders (Be) 0000 Official institutions (6) Face amount of issue 00,000,000 No. of holders (6a) 0000 Face amount of issue (6b) 00,000,000 Banks, brokers and nominees (71 No. of holders 0000 Face amount of issue ttbi 00,000,000 Investment cos..insurance cos., pension funds & other employee benefit funds or trusts No of 18)Face amount holders INI 0000 of issue tttl 00,000,000 Other business firms m. No. of holders m0000 (to appear on first page only) Exclude direct and indirect holdings In U.S. securities by foreign direct investors. A fore.gn direct investor is any foreign person owning 10% or more of the voting stock of the U.S. company. (See paragraph B.2.b(2) of the General Instructions.) 2 Ute country code number from Annex B of the General Instructions to .dentify foreign currency issue. Fee* amount of issue 00,000,000 11 STATEMENT BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE MAY 7, 197 5 Mr. Chairman and Members of this Distinguished Committee: I welcome this opportunity to appear before you this morning on a subject of timely and urgent concern: our capital investment needs for the future. For several months, many economic policy makers in Washington have been preoccupied with the problems of ending the recession, slowing the rate of inflation and steering the nation back to a course of stable, durable economic growth. Today there are many signs that the economic slide is gradually decelerating, and we can be increasingly confident that we will be on the road to recovery before the end of this year. As we emerge from the recession, it is especially important that we now begin to focus greater public attention on the longer-range problems of our country. While the process of recovery will require careful and vigilant management, we must be equally concerned whether the period of the recovery and beyond will bring sustained economic progress or a sorrowful repetition of the boom and bust cycles of the past. Certainly there is no subject more central to our hopes for the future than our ability and our willingness to meet the capital investment needs of coming years. Those needs are impressively large, and they will demand a full-scale effort. In my testimony this morning, I want to draw upon an abundance of documentary evidence showing that the United States has not been keeping pace in its capital investments and that we must devote more of our resources to this purpose if we are to achieve our most basic economic dreams for the future. To summarize, the record shows that: -- During the 1960s, the United States had the worst record of capital investment among the major industrialized nations of the Free World. -- Correspondingly, our records of productivity growth and overall economic growth during this period were also among the lowest of the major industrialized nations. -- As other nations have channeled relatively more of their resources into capital investment and have acquired more modern plants and equipment, they have eroded our competitive edge in world markets. WS-294 - 2-- Our record on capital investments reflects the heavy emphasis we are placing on personal consumption and government spending as opposed to savings and capital formation. -- Our record also reflects a precipitous decline in corporate profits since the mid-1960s. -- While the U.S. economy remains sufficiently large and dynamic to overcome our investment record of recent years, our future economic growth will be tied much more directly to the adequacy of our capital investments. — Estimates of future needs vary, but it is relatively clear that i n coming years we will have to devote approximately three times as mucn money to capital investments as we have in the recent past. — It is an economic fact of life that increased productivi is the only way to increase our standard of living. For the sake of future economic growth -- jobs, real income and reasonable price stability -- the inescapable conclusion is that government policies must become more supportive of capital investment and that we must make a fundamental shift in our domestic policies away from continued growth in personal consumption and government spending and toward greater savings, capital formation and investment. Some analysts have concluded that it will not be possible to meet our future capital investment needs. I disagree. I firmly believe that we are capable of achieving our basic investment goals, but I also believe that they represent one of the most formidable economic challenges of the decade ahead. I. CAPITAL INVESTMENT EXPERIENCE The beginning point for our consideration of capital investment -- and one that should be of keen concern to everyone -- is the pattern of economic growth during the decade of the 1960s. The average annual rate of real economic growth during that period for the twenty nations belonging to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OIICD) ranged from a high of 11.1 percent for Japan, to a median of about 5 percent for Australia, the Netherlands and Norway, to a low of 2.8 percent for the United Kingdom. The United States during this time experienced an average growth, rate of 4 percent a year -- 17th among the 20 nations (Table 1). Of the many economic, political and social factors that influence economic growth rates, none is more important than the level of capital investment. Economists generally agree - y\ that the factors affecting growth include: (1) the accumulated base of capital goods; (2) the current pace of new capital investments; (3) the effective application of new technology; (4) the quality of the national labor force — its education, training, discipline and commitment; (5) the infrastructure of transportation, communication, financial and service facilities; (6) access to industrial raw materials; (7) managerial skills; and (8) the organization of the economic system. The mix of these basic economic variables — along with other specific factors not listed -- varies from country to country and changes over time. It is also possible to substitute one, or a combination, of these productivity variables for specific inadequacies. Most analysts agree, however, that a strong rate of new capital investment is required to generate sustained growth. In fact, the effectiveness of all of the other factors that determine productivity are heavily dependent upon the quantity and quality of capital goods made available by new investment. The United States retains a position of economic leadership because it has been blessed over a long period of time with a favorable mix of all of the important economic variables, along with political stability and improving social mobility. For many years our advantageous ratio of capital to labor has been acknowledged as the basis of the remarkable rise of the U.S. economy. Even now spending for plant and equipment continues to increase and these outlays still exceed the amounts invested elsewhere because of the large size of the U.S. economy (Table 2 ) . In 1974, gross private domestic fixed investment totaled $195.6 billion, up from $194.0 billion in 1973 and $131.7 billion in 1970. Investments in business structures and producers' durable equipment totaled $149.6 billion in 1974, up from $136.8 billion in 1973 and $100.6 billion in 1970. Nonetheless, even though plant and equipment expenditures will continue in the future as the economy grows, it is unrealistic to assume that the historical patterns of investment and productivity will be adequate to meet the priorities of the future. And I certainly am not suggesting that we can fulfill ever) claim presented by society. The disappointing record of Federal deficits in fourteen of the liist fifteen years ending with FY 1975 -- or forty out of the last forty-eight years -and the unfortunate boom and bust pattern of economic performance over the past decade indicate that we have not been able to effectively identify and manage our national economic priorities. Some analysts have claimed that future economic growth will release unused resources to fulfill new claims against the national output. To the contrary, the intensity of claims for available resources will likely increase in the future. - 4 The assertion that additional government spending programs can be added without disrupting the allocation of resources in the private sector has been refuted by the events of the past decade, particularly the increasing inflation pressures and shortages of materials and production capacity. Comparative Rates of Investment Recognizing the relatively low rate of U.S. economic growth in the 1960s, it is worthwhile to look now at the relative rate of capital investment in this country. Although the amounts of capital investment continue to increase in the United States and our capital-to-labor ratio is still relatively high, other nations during recent years have allocated a substantially larger share of their resources to new capital formation. Furthermore, the gap between the U.S. level of investment, measured as a share of national output, and the commitments of other leading industrial nations has increased. A study prepared by the Department of the Treasury indicates that total U.S. fixed investment as a share of national output during the time period 1960 through 1973 was 17.5 percent. The U.S. figure ranks last among a group of eleven major industrial nations; our investment rate was 7.2 percentage points below the average commitment of the entire group. When only nonresidential investment is considered the level of commitment is naturally lower for every nation but the relative position of the United States is not changed. - 5 Investment a.f> Percent of Total Fixed** Nonresidential Fixed Japan West Germany France Canada Italy United Kingdom 35.0 25.0 24.5 21.8 20.5 18.5 29.0 20.0 10.2 17.4 14.4 15.2 U.S. 17.5 13.6 11 OECD Countries 24.7 19.4 ~ OECD concepts of investment and national product. The OECD .concept includes nondefense government outlays for machinery and eqipment in the private investment total which required special adjustment in the U.S. national accounts for comparability. National output is defined in this study as "gross domestic product," rather than the more familiar measure of gross national product, to conform with OECD definitions. ** Including residential. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. The reduced pace of capital investment in the U.S. economy has also been emphasized by Professor Paul W. McCracken, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and now Senior Consultant to the Department of the Treasury. Using historical figures, reported in constant dollars, for the amount of nonresidential capital formation per person added to the labor force4 he estimates that commitments in the United States during the 1970s are 22 percent below the level reported in the 1956 to 1965 decade. In terms of business capital investment per worker, the United States still maintains a considerably higher capital to labor ratio than in Europe and Japan. However, our advantage has declined as other nations have increased their capital investments per worker. The Department of Commerce estimates that since 1960 the existing base of plant and equipment assets has - 6 nearly doubled in France and Germany and more than tripled in Japan. 1/ The cumulative total of such assets in the United States increased at most by about 50 percent during the period the same same neriod. Gross Nonresidential Fixed Investment Per Person Added to Civilian Labor Force (In 1950 dollars) Period 1956 - 1960 $49,500 1961 - 1965 1966 - 1970 1971 - 1974 Amount 55,300 46,400 41,000* ; •Estimate based on incomplete data for 1974 Source: Statement of Paul W. McCracken before the Committee on Ways and Means, January 29, 1975 Basic data from the Departments of Commerce and Labor. Factors Influencing U.S. Rate of Capital Investment In evaluating the relatively slower rate of capital investment in the United States, several moderating factors should be considered. First, the unusually large size of the U.S. economy and its relatively advanced stage of development, including the accumulated total of previous capital investments, creates a different investment environment. In 1974 the U.S. national output was $1.4 trillion, which is approximately equal to 90 percent of the combined total for the nine countries in the European Economic Community and Japan. Having already created such an impressive productive capacity it is to be expected that our rate of additional growth might be lower than the development rates of other nations who are striving to achieve our relatively advanced level of economic activity. 1/ An Overview of Investment: The United Stater; and__Major Foredgn Economies, International Economic Policy and Research Report, U.S. Department of Commerce, Domestic and International Business Administration, October 1974, p.9 - 7A second and even more important influence has been the historical priority placed on consumption within the U.S. economy. We are a consumption-oriented society and this pattern has been developing for several decades. The emphasis on consumption has undoubtedly caused much of the rapid development of the U.S. economy because it has created a strong demand for goods and services needed to sustain output, employment and investment. In 1974 personal consumption totaled $877.0 billion, or 63 percent of our gross national product; total government purchases of goods and services totaled $308.8 billion, or 22 percent; gross private domestic investment, which includes the change in inventories, was $208.9 billion, or 15 percent; and net exports of goods and services amounted to $2.0 billion or 0.1 percent of total national output. Personal and government consumption outlays have long dominated the GNP totals, and this pattern of economic activity is deeply ingrained in our society. As a result, despite our high per capita incomes, the accumulations of gross savings flows required for capital investment are lower in the United States than elsewhere. It is also important to note that the level of gross private savings in the United States has remained stable throughout the postwar Average Annual Gross Savings Flows era. As a Percent of Gross National Product (Percent) 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 Gross Private Saving 15.9 15.4 15.9 15.8 4.5 Personal saving Undistributed corporate profits 3.4 Inventory valuation adjustment -0.3 Capital consumption allowances 8.3 3.8 2.8 0.0 8.8 4.5 3.1 -0.3 8.7 U.S. Government Surplus -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -1.1 State and Local Government Surplus -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 5.5 2.8 -1.2 8.7 - 8 These figures are subject to differing interpretations. Some analysts have claimed that it will not be possible to attract enough savings to meet future investment needs. This negative conclusion assumes that the capital needed to increase plant and equipment.capeity will be preempted or diverted to meet the consumption preferences of the private and public sectors. I would hope that the severe output, inflation, unemployment and balance-of-payments distortions of the past decade would be a useful warning against such a result. It should be apparent from the experience of recent years that we must invest adequate funds in new plant and equipment — as well as in education and training — in order to increase our nation's productivity and thereby raise our standard of living. Failure to provide necessary productive capacity to meet the Nation's economic goals is certain to have undesirable effects upon our society over the long run. Other analysts have used the same gross savings figures to claim that there will not be any particular strain in handling our future investment needs. They believe that as investors are provided with a sufficiently high return on their investments, they will increase savings to meet the higher demand for capital. This conclusion seems to be based on two questionable assumptions: (1) that the existing savings ratio of the past decade is adequate for both past and future capital investment needs; and, (2) that each sector in the economy can obtain its minimum investment needs within the total outlays financed. I do not agree that past investment levels have been fully adequate. Experience has demonstrated that inflation and unemployment problems have been created in part by capacity shortages. Many of our current difficulties are the direct result of the energy and raw materials strains that developed in early 1974 and eventually contributed to our current recession and related unemployment. The continuous deterioration of our international trade balance during the 1960s, when the dollar was overvalued, was also at least partly the result of the loss of competitiveness for U.S. products and increased reliance on foreign sources of goods. As you will see in a moment, I think there is also clear evidence that in order to meet future needs, the Nation must increase its capital investment as a claim against national output. Unfortunately, specific investment needs have not been adequately fulfilled in many sectors of the economy, even though general outlays have increased. We must also be concerned about the capacity of our capital markets to provide adequate financing. Economists often assume that the supply of investment funds will automatically match the demand for capital if interest rates and equity yields are attractive. Our financial markets are very efficient in collecting savings and allocating the funds. However, we should be more sensitive to the disruptive impact of high interest rates. Even though financial markets may be functioning well in allocating the available capital, specific sectors of the economy may not be able to obtain the investment funds needed, particularly at interest rates they can afford. The periodic problem of providing adequate mortgage financing at reasonable interest rates is one example of the limitations within the markets. The difficulty in obtaining equity financing is another. Whether or not industry will be able to acquire the investment funds needed will be heavily influenced by future actions of the government. National policies cannot ignore financial realitites by diverting capital into deficit financing and disrupting the goals of stable monetary policy without inhibiting the necessary process of capital formation. The costs of capital and its availability for private sector needs are heavily dependent on these public fiscal and monetary actions. While the financial markets are very resilient and responsive to changing credit and equity needs, they are not entirely immune to the disruptive impact of government policies. A third important factor affecting the pattern of U.S. investment compared with other nations is the relatively large share of total capital outlays we commit to the services category, which includes housing, government and other services. According to a study published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United States allocated 70 percent of its total investment to the services category during the 1969 to 1971 time period. The U.S. figure is significantly higher than that reported by the other five major industrial nations included in the study (Table 3). Accordingly, the U.S. share of investment committed to the manufacturing sector, 19.7 percent, was considerably lower than the figures reported by France (27.8 percent), West Germany (25.2 percent), Japan (26.8 percent), and the United Kingdom (23.8 percent). Our heavy investment in the services category tends, of course, to emphasize consumption and moderate the growth in productivity. This arrangement may satisfy immediate consumer preferences, but we must weigh those preferences against long-term concerns about domestic productivity and international competitiveness. - 10 A fourth in luence on the pattern of capital investment in the United States is the relatively large share of our investment that must be used for replacement and modernization of existing facilities. It is estimated that 62 percent of U.S. capital investment during the time period 1960 to 1971 was used for replacement needs, compared to the United Kingdom, 61 percent; Canada, 52 percent; France, 54 percent; West Germany, 53 percent; and Japan, 31 percent. 2/ The divergent pattern reflects the advanced status of economic development in some nations and the postwar experience of Europe and Japan in restoring their devastated industrial facilities following World War II. The Department of Commerce estimates that 60 to 70 percent of the U.S. stock of plant and equipment has been added since 1960, compared to approximately 75 percent of the capital goods of West Germany and France and 85 percent of Japan's industrial capacity. It should be emphasized that this heavy replacement requirement does provide a continuing opportunity to introduce new technology into the U.S. economic system. Since the annual value of U.S. capital investment is so large, it cannot be assumed that the entire U.S. industrial system is technologically obsolete, even though some specific sectors have suffered a sharp competitive deterioration. Nevertheless, the otherwise imposing outlays for replacement and modernization do not add to the total productive capacity of our economy. A fifth and final factor influencing the national rate of capital investment is the pattern of government policies. Government can affect investment either directly through the incentives it provides or indirectly through various tax and regulatory policies and its own pattern of spending. A review of the diversified economic incentives available in other nations indicates the very active investment role played by many foreign governments. Basic industries are frequently controlled by the government with total, or at least dominant, public ownership. Special financial and operating assistance is also frequently provided for preferred private companies to assist their development if it is considered to be in the national interest. The United States has avoided most of the capital allocation and special incentive programs used in other countries. I strongly favor this private sector approach and believe that it has been a positive factor in the development of our economy. There are some Federal programs which provide direct financial support through the Economic Development Administration, the Small Business Administration and 169 different government credit programs, but the major influence of Federal Government - 11 - yy on capital investment comes through the Federal budget. Government budget decisions now represent approximately one-third of the total GNP and this figure will rise even higher if spending trends of the past twenty years are continued. The government also influences private sector activities by providing capital grants, research funding and other incentives which stimulate investment. For example, the FY 1976 budget prepared by the President calls for outlays of $4.6 billion on general science, space and technology programs, $2.2 billion on energy activities and $9.4 billion for environmental and natural resources. Part of these outlays will involve capital investment needs. The Government is also exercising increased influence over private investment decisions through the growing number of safety, health an£ environmental standards. Precise estimates are difficult, but it has been estimated that during 1972, 8 percent of the textile industry's capital investments and 12 percent of the steel industry's investments were related to health and safety standards mandated by the government. While such standards may be highly desirable, we should recognize that these investments do not increase the Nation's total productive capacity. Many State and local governments also provide special incentive programs to attract capital investment into specific geographical areas. Such incentives include capital grants, advantageous credit arrangements, relocation and manpower training grants, special site and building assistance, infrastructure investments, and preferred tax and utility arrangements. While such incentives have influenced the location of some facilities, the total amount of capital investment has probably not been increased. The private sector continues to be the best means of increasing capital investment in the United States and our government has fortunately not attempted to control the pattern of such investments. Negative Results of Inadequate Capital Investment While the historical pattern of capital investment in the United States may satisfy our immediate goals, there are serious economic risks in having a slow rate of capital investment for an extended period of time. The emphasis on immediate consumption has occurred because American consumers have historically preferred to spend 91 percent of their disposable after.-tax income. The government has basically supported this independence of choice although its tax and spending policies have unfortunately exercised an increasing influence on private decisions. But we must now question the future adequacy of past investment patterns if we are to adequately prepare for the economic future of our great nation. - 12 Various studies have indicated the close relationship between capital investment and various measures of economic growth and productivity. A dynamic economy is needed to create jobs by applying new technology and expanding production capacity. A productive labor force is also necessary for producing goods and services to meet rising demands for an improved standard of living and as a means of holding down inflation. When productivity increases,the effects of rising wages are offset so that unit labor costs can be held down and prices are more stable. Inadequate capital investment also limits new job opportunities and creates unemployment. Specific examples of production capacity shortages became painfully apparent to the Cost of Living Council (COLC) as it administered the program of wage and price controls from August 1971 until June 1974. Recognizing the inflation pressures created by these numerous capacity constraints, the COLC followed a definite policy of requiring specific capital investment commitments from private industry as a basis for price decontrol decisions. The COLC also became very concerned about future inflation problems that could result from raw materials shortages and increasing capacity shortages in several basic industries as economic growth occurs. Unfortunately, productivity gains in the United States have been disappointing, particularly when compared with the experience of other leading nations. Productivity Growth, 1960-1973 (Average Annual Rate) Gross Domestic Product per employed person Manufacturing output per manhour United States 2.1 3.3 Japan West Germany France Canada Italy United Kingdom 9.2 5.4 5.2 2.4 5.7 2.8 10.5 5.0 6.0 4.3 6.4 4.0 11 OECD Nations 5.2* 6.1 * Average for 6 OECD countries listed. Source: Department of the Treasury ^ - 13 1/ c The rapid growth of the U.S. economy to its present size and the relatively low level of inflation until the late 1960's has been based on the creativity and productivity of the system. Americans have grately benefitted from this growth, not only in personal economic gains but in terms of national security and international leadership. Continued prosperity, however, cannot be taken for granted; it must be earned. We must be willing to allocate more of our resources to the future and fewer to satisfying immediate demands. This is a difficult concept for some to accept because they prefer current consumption. With so many needs still unsatisfied in a land of relative plenty, this feeling is understandable. Our ability to fulfill these needs will only be restricted, however, if we now fail to prepare for the future. The simple truism that we cannot consume more than we produce should be obvious, but we sometimes ignore it in setting national priorities. And we can no longer afford to ignore the fact that as the real output of other nations has increased more rapidly than our own, our competitive advantage has gradually been eroded. Real Output por ErnpJcvcd Civilian 1950-74 Irctoxe*. United States • 100 .United States 100 ^Canada ,„.-•-.•' ranee United Kingdom • ^ Japan 20 1950 Source: 1955 1960 1965 Department of the Treasury- 1970 72 74 - 14 II. FUTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS Economic projections are always difficult, but estimating future capital needs is particularly uncertain at this time because costs and priorities continue to change rapidly. It is obvious, however, that future capital requirements will be enormous -- larger than anything we have ever faced before. Clearly we will need to increase the quantity and quality of housing; develop new energy resources; improve the quality of our environment; rehabilitate the existing transportation system and develop a better urban transportation system; continue the mechanization of agriculture; construct new office buildings, communications systems, medical facilities, schools and other facilities; and meet the massive needs for new plant and equipment. In all of these sectors we must not only replace and modernize existing facilities but also add new capacity, particularly in many of our most basic industries. The Department of Commerce estimates that capital requirements for producers' durable equipment and nonresidential structures will total $3.4 trillion during the 1974 to 1985 period. If annual outlays for residential construction, which have averaged $50 billion during the past four years, are added to this figure, the total capital needs rise to well over $4 trillion. Details of their estimate include: Gross Private Domestic Nonresidential Fixed Investment (billions of current dollars) Cumulative 1974 1985 1974-1985 Total producer's durable equipment $100.0 $276.7 $2,188.8 Nonresidential structures 54.7 151.3 1,197.3 $154.7 $428.0 $3,386.0 A similar study performed by the General Electric Company confirms the massive size of future capital requirements. Assuming a real GNP growth rate of 4 percent and an inflation rate of 5 percent, General Electric expects gross private domestic investment, including residential housing, to total $4'_ trillion over the 1974 to 1985 time period. The General Electric and Commerce studies are consistent if housing outlays are added to the Department of Commerce totals. Both estimates are limited to private investment and exclude the large government expenditures required for roads, dams, government facilities, schools, pollution abatement outlays, and many other projects. Assuming, then, that the cumulative investment needs between 1974 and 1985 will range from $4 to §\h trillion, the point to remember is this: over the most recent period of the same length, v-1 1962 through 1973, our total outlays for capital investment in the United States were %\h trillion. Thus, our capital investment needs in coming years are approximately three times the level of the recent past. That is perhaps our best measure of our challenge ahead. Both of the studies I have mentioned are necessarily based on many uncertain projections and arbitrary assumptions about a continuing close relationship between investment and economic growth. But even if some of these assumptions prove to be erroneous -- as they will -- and new investment requirements arise - - a s always happens -- the actual results will not materially change the following conclusions: 1. Capital requirements for gross private domestic investment will be in excess of $4 trillion during the 1974 to 1985 time period. 2. The future rate of inflation will be a crucial factor in determining the amount of future investment because it will influence both the price of assets acquired and the economic incentives for future investment. 3. The achievement of national capital investment goals is possible if we are willing to increase the share of national resources committed. Energy Investment Requirements One area of capital investment that is particularly critical for the future is energy. To achieve greater self sufficiency in energy, enormous capital investments will be required. We basically have two alternatives. The first one is to meet our increased energy investment requirements by reducing outlays in other sectors. While energy priorities are indeed important, it would be most unfortunate to disrupt the entire economic system in this way. A second -- and more desirable -- approach is to include these new requirements within an enlarged total investment goal. Our purpose should not be to redistribute the economic pie, but to continue enlarging it so that everyone will have a bigger share. Recognizing that the ultimate cost of energy investment needs will be influenced by many variables, it appears that capital requirements over the next decade will total about $1 trillion stated in current dollars to include the effects of inflation. Energy investments will comprise an important share of the total capital requirements discussed above but their financing is manageable if they are given a high priority as part of a comprehensive national energy program. The specific amounts to be spent in each category will depend upon the energy policies adopted and dynamic developments within the economy. Nevertheless, the range of possible needs is indicated in four separate studies prepared by the Federal Energy Administration, National Petroleum Council, - 16 National Academy of Engineering and Arthur D. Little, Inc. All four studies are stated in constant 1973 dollars to make them comparable. If necessary adjustments are made for potential inflation and the increased needs that have been identified since the studies were prepared the resulting capital needs expressed in current dollars, will approximate $1 trillion between now and 1985. Comparison of Capital Requirements Estimates* Total Dollars Cumulative 1975 - 1985 (Billions of 1973 Dollars) Oil and Gas (including refining) Coal Synthetic Fuels Nuclear Electric Power Plants (excluding nuclear) Electric Transmission Tran spo rt at ion Other (e) Total (a) FEA Accelerated Supply NPC NAE ADL (a) (b) (c) 133 149 122 98.4 8 10 7 137 18 19 93 53 6 6 84 43 11.9 42 43 125 90 43 8 396 - - 380 457 .6 138.5 60.3 116.2 25.5(d) 2.2 454 U.S. Energy Outlook, a summary report of the National Petroleum Council, Washington, D.C., December 1972 (Average of four supply cases) (b) U.S. Energy Prospects, An Engineering Viewpoint, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C., 1974 (c) Arthur D. Little estimates based upon an energy conservation scenario. («i) Does not include investments required for tanker fleets, buu docs include $5.5 billion targeted for Trans-Alaska oil pipeline (e) Solar, Geothermal, Municipal Waste Treatment Plants, and Shale Oil. Source; Federal Energy Administration, Project Independence Report, November 1974, p. 282. - 17 The overall impact of energy requirements is summarized in a special report issued by the Chase-Manhattan Bank in March of 1975. The Energy Economics Division of the bank is noted for the quality of its special reports. Over twenty years ago that division predicted that an energy shortage would develop in the United States if certain policy adjustments were not made. One of the major concerns of these reports over the years has been the chronic underinvestment in energy resources which became apparent in the late 1950's. The conclusion of the most recent Chase Manhattan Bank report is particularly perceptive: "Although the relationship between investment and supply of energy is an elementary principle that applies to any and all sources of primary energy, it is nevertheless one that is not well understood. In fact, the lack of understanding was responsible for the incredibly unenlightened regulation and many other political actions about the world that had the two-pronged effect of preventing the generation of sufficient capital funds and discouraging the investment of money that actually was available. And the current energy shortage is the consequence. Ye*t, even today, after so much damage has been done, there is still a widespread failure to recognize the relationship between investment and supply. Instead, two distinctly different attitudes generally prevail. Many apparently continue to believe they can somehow again have enough energy without paying all the associated costs. Others, obviously, are resigned to the prospect of a permanent shortage and see conservation as the only avenue of partial relief. Neither attitude is realistic, of course. The world still does not lack basic energy resources remaining to be developed. And it is conceivable that eventually there can again be enough to serve all its needs but only if the necessary investment is made first. If it is not, a permanent shortage will indeed be the certain outcome." Source: The Chase Manhattan Bank, Energy Economics Division How Much Oil -- How Much Investment," A Special Petroleum Report, March 1975. - 18 - The report goes on to emphasize -- correctly, I believe — that a permanent shortage is intolerable because it would so constrict total economic growth that the growth in labor force — even at the more moderate pace expected in the 1980s — could not be absorbed. The resulting unemployment problems would cause severe economic problems in addition to threatening our political and social stability. Future investments in energy resources will naturally be determined by total demand over time. Estimates have already changed dramatically as costs have risen and conservation efforts have increased. However, these developments are so recent that it is difficult to predict future demand until a national energy policy is agreed upon and the various energy incentives and disincentives are identified. The Chase Manhattan analysts had originally projected a continued growth in the world's demand for energy at an average annual rate of 5 percent which is the same pace as recorded from 1955 to 1970. Admitting the unusual degree of uncertainty, the bank has now lowered its projection to an annual rate of 4.2 percent with a strong warning that energy forecasts have historically erred on the conservative side. Oil consumption is expected to grow at a more rapid annual rate of 4.5 percent over the 1970 to 1985 period, resulting in a cumulative consumption of 375 billion barrels, nearly two and a half times more than in the 1955 to 1970 period. North America is expected to remain the world's largest consumer of total energy and oil, but the growth rate for this area may be lower because of a slower population growth and our potential for conservation savings. Turning to the financial requirements for the petroleum industry, Chase Manhattan Bank estimates a world-wide need for $400 billion to find 600 billion barrels of oil between 1970 and 1985. This is more than two and a half times the actual investment for this purpose during the 1955 to 1970 period. An additional $370 billion will be needed between 1970 and 1985 for world-wide development of refineries and processing facilities, tankers, pipelines, environmental equipment and the necessary marketing facilities. The total of $770 billion is nearly three times the actual commitment in the preceding fifteen year period. Finally, another $400 billion will be required for other investments, payment of dividends, debt repayments and additions to working capital. The total financial needs of the world's petroleum industry from 1970 to 1985 are estimated by the bank to be $1.2 trillion stated in constant 1970 dollars. Inflation will of course increase the dollar amounts required. If inflation averages 5 percent over the time period, the world petroleum industry financial needs would rise from $1.2 to $1.6 trillion. With 10 percent inflation, the figure would increase to $2.2 trillion. With regard to financing these world-wide petroleum industry requirements, the bank estimates the following distribution of potential sources based on the $1.2 trillion constant dollar estimate: (1) Communist nations, $225 billion; (2) new capital market issues, $240 billion; (3) capital recovery allowances, $260 billion; and (4) profits, $460 billion. These figures must be adjusted upward according to whatever rate of inflation occurs. This brief listing of sources obviously conceals many difficult financial challenges. The world's capital markets will already be absorbing large public and private financing demands. Government policies may reduce capital recovery allowances permitted for computing tax liabilities. And the assumption that oil industry profits will be large enough to cover such a large share of the total is questionable. Commenting on the public's reaction to oil industry profits in 1973 and 1974 after fifteen years of average performance, the bank report states: "As emphasized earlier, there cannot possibly be enough energy of any kind without adequate investment. And investment cannot be adequate without sufficient profits. But profits are labeled excessive and restraints are proposed without apparent consideration of the need for profits as a source of investment funds. As indicated earlier, the industry will need at least $845 billion of profits between 1970 and 1985 if the world experiences a 10 percent rate of inflation. But in the first four years of the period the industry generated no more than $60 billion of profits, only 7 percent of the required amount. Even in the highly unlikely event of no further inflation, the $60 billion would represent but 13 percent of the industry's total needs for the fifteen year period." III. GOVERNMENT POLICIES While our economy is capable of financing its large private capital investment requirements, our success in mooting that goal is heavily dependent upon the shape of government policies. It is absolutely imperative that government policies become more supportive. A continuation of the severe fiscal and monetary distortions of the past decade would undoubtedly prevent the achievement of our basic goals. Inflation must be controlled, and the government must avoid disrupting the capital markets if the private sector is obtain the financing required. In fact, public officials must balance the Federal budget over time and record occasional surpluses in order to free up capital resources to fulfill existing private investment claims. Instead of reducing private investment to release resources for government social programs, we should concentrate on balancing the budget over time so that the future flow of savings is not diverted away from private investment. - 20 - Unfortunately, the Federal Government has reported a deficit in fourteen out of the past fifteen years ending with FY 1975. During the single decade FY 1966 through FY 1974, the cumulative Federal deficits totaled $103 billion. Net borrowings for supporting over one hundred "off-budget" Federal programs totaled another $137 billion during that decade. As a result, the Federal Government withdrew one quarter of a trillion dollars out of the capital markets. But this record is only a prelude to our present situation when Treasury financing requirements will total about $75 billion in calendar year 1975 in order to finance the massive Federal deficits expected. While much of the current deficit results from the recession, which has caused tax revenue losses, increased unemployment compensation benefits and other outlays resulting from the "automatic stabilizers" used to fight recession, a review of the budget details indicates that traditional spending programs are also rising rapidly and new programs are proposed almost every day. As indicated in Table 4, the spending figures included in the original budget submitted by the President last February called for outlays of $3.13.4 billion in Federal spending in FY 1975 and $349.4 billion in FY 1976. Recent projections by the Office of Management and Budget indicate that FY 1975 outlays will be $324.2 billion, an increase of 20.8 percent over FY 1974 outlays. It should be obvious that government spending-both for temporary stimulus and traditional programs -- is increasing at a rate that is creating serious resource allocation problems far into the future and that these pressures will not conveniently disappear as we gradually emerge from the recession later this year. Looking beyond the recession problems of 1975, we seem to face the dilemma of having an apparently irresistible force of growing government spending meeting the immovable object of future capital investment requirements. But we should no longer consider the growth of government spending and related deficits to be an irresistible force. To do so will inevitably lead to even more serious economic problems of unemployment, reduced real gains in our national standard-of-living and even more inflation resulting from inadequate physical capacity and reduced productivity„ We must recognize the basic reality that when we apply too much pressure on our capacity to produce goods and services, the inevitable result is inflation and shortages. The underlying growth trends of the U.S. economy will continue to provide for further economic progress, but we cannot realistically expect to satisfy every new claim within our economy by simply shifting resources from the private to the public sector. Adding new government commitments is not feasible if the total productive capacity of the economy is exceeded. This guideline has been frequently violated as total demand has increased too rapidly for the economic system to absorb. When this happens the economy begins a boom and bust sequence with severe inflation and unemployment distortions. Nor can we wish away the problem by claiming that there is plenty of slack in the 1975 recession and that we can ignore problems of overheating the economy until later years. The escalation of government spending levels summarized in Table 4 has already seriously eroded- our future fiscal flexibility and the lagged impact of current spending decisions will directly affect the future. In short, if we are to achieve our crucial goal of adding at least $4 trillion of private capital investment by 1985, we must first establish more moderate and sustainable fiscal and monetary policies. Tax Policies Federal tax policies affect capital investment decisions by determining the after-tax earnings available for investment and by establishing incentives or disincentives for future investment. An OECD study of tax policies indicates that total government tax collections in the United States during the years 1968, 1969, and 1970 were a smaller proportion of the gross national product than in most other industrial nations. The U.S. figure of 27.9 percent for those three years was above that of Switzerland (21.5) and Japan (19.4 percent) but below the levels reported for many European nations, ranging from Italy (30.1 percent) to Sweden (43.0 percent). Since the study was completed, the United States undertook major tax policy changes in 1971 and in March of 1975, but the comparative relationships have probably not changed very much. There is, however, a major difference in the distribution of the tax burden. As indicated in Table 5, only 18.1 percent of the U.So tax revenues in 1971 were provided by taxes on the consumption of goods and services. Other industrial nations relied much more heavily on consumption taxes: France, 34.8 percent; West Germany, 28.1 percent; United Kingom, 26.6 percent; Canada, 28.7 percent; and Japan 20.7 percent. The definite tilt toward personal and corporate income taxes in the United States is consistent with our historical preference for immediate consumption. It is not my purpose to critizc this historical priority, but the future requirements for capital investment indicate that tax policies should be reviewed. Just such a review has been underway in the Department of the Treasury in preparing for the tax law changes completed last month and in anticipation of a joint review with the Congress in the coming months of possible tax reform initiatives. I do not want to make any specific recommendations this morning because we are still working on our analysis and recommendations. We will want to review the options with Congress before specific actions are suggested. I will merely refer to some of the policy areas that need to be reviewed: - 22 - 1. Corporate income tax -- These taxes directly influence the cash flow available for investment. The rate has vacillated slightly above or below the 50 percent level for many years. While a reduction in the rate of taxation would probably be the most straight-forward approach to enhancing investment incentives, any change would represent a major shift in policy and would require extensive Congressional consideration. The Tax Reduction Act of 1975 did increase the corporate surtax exemption from $25,000 to $50,000 and decrease the "normal" tax from 22 to 20 percent on the first $25,000 of earnings. These changes, however, do not affect the tax impact on the great bulk of corporate earnings subject to the corporate surtax. As part of this on-going review of tax policies we also need to consider the influence on investment of our two-tier system of corporate taxation in which income is taxed once at the corporate level and again at the shareholder level. This approach discriminates against corporate investors generally and small equity investors particularly. An individual in the 20 percent tax bracket in effect pays 48 percent at the corporate level and then an additional 20 percent on what is left for a total tax burden of 58.4 percent, or nearly three times his individual rate. If the individual is in the 70 percent bracket, he pays 48 percent at the corporate level and then an additional 70 percent on what is left. His total tax burden is 84.4 percent. If the same business could be conducted in a noncorporate form, the investors would pay only 20 and 70 percent respectively. Our tax system puts a great penalty on companies that must incorporate. Companies that do incorporate are those that have large capital needs that must be raised from many persons. We should keep in mind that our system of taxation bears more heavily on corporations than do the tax systems of almost every other major industrial nation. In the last few years our major trading partners have largely eliminated the classical two-tiered system of corporate taxation. Through a variety of mechanisms they have adopted systems of "integrating" the personal and individual income taxes so that the double taxation element is radically lessened. 2* 1 nvcstmcnt Tax Creel i t (1 TCI) - Business firms have strongly supported tlic I'TC as a major stimulus to additional capital investment. Empirical studies do indicate that the amount of investment in machinery and equipment has increased when the ITC has been put into effect and has declined when it is suspended. Some critics believe, however, that the ITC simply influenced the timing and types of investment rather than increasing the total amount. Whichever view is correct, there was strong support for the investment tax credit provision in the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 which increased the credit to 10 percent for two years and removed the lower percentage tax limitation for utilities. Unfortunately, the investment - 23 - ^ \ 3r credit has had an uncertain status once it was initiated January 1, 1962 and businessmen are justifiably concerned about the stability of an incentive which has already been removed twice and then reinstated. 3. Depreciation guidelines - The amount of capital recovery charges permitted for tax purposes also influences the after-tax earnings available for private investment. In 1954 the Internal Revenue Tax Code was changed to permit depreciation charges to be made on an accelerated basis. The official guidelines were again liberalized in 1962, and in 1971 the Asset Depreciation Range (ADR) -- along with the investment tax credit -- was added to the regulations. The ADR rules allow companies to select a time period for calculating depreciation within a range of 20 percent above or below the Treasury guideline which specifies useful life periods for various assets. Despite these adjustments, American businesses complain that they have a competitive disadvantage compared with some other nations0 The figures summarized in Table 6 do indicate that American firms using both the ADR and the investment tax redit can recover 55 percent of the value of new investments during the first three years. By comparison, the allowances in other nations are as follows: Canada, 100 percent; France, 90.3 percent; Japan, 63.9 percent; United Kingdom, 100 percent; and West Germany, 49.6 percent. It should be added that the U.S. position becomes more comparable by the seventh year. Various business groups have proposed further liberalization, such as a wider ADR percentage, but further consideration should be part of the general tax reform analysis involving the Department of the Treasury and the Congress. 4. Special Incentives - The government is frequently asked to provide special incentives in the form of reduced or delayed taxes, accelerated depreciation schedules, capital grants or other benefits to enchance the rate of return on capital investments. While such incentives are usually requested on the basis that they will contribute to the achievement of some national priority, it is usually difficult to justify such special treatment. When special advantages are given to a specific industry or geographical region, others become relatively disadvantaged and it is very difficult for government authorities to determine which claims should be favored, particularly in a dynamic economy where priorities can change rapidly. While there may be a few specific situations where the government should intervene in the allocation of resources which is now handled efficiently by the private markets, my overwhelming preference is to avoid the economic distortions which are found to occur. - 24 - Corporate Profitability The final area of concern that I want to address here is the future outlook for corporate profitability. Such profits are, of course, the major incentive for additional investment and an important source of funds for financing outlays, along with various external sources. In a fundamental sense profits are the driving force of our system -- the engine that pulls the economic train for the 85 percent of our work force still in the private sector -- and they are just as much a "cost" of doing business as payments to workers, supplies of materials and services, taxes, etc Unfortunately, corporate profits are too often thought of as an unnecessary claim required by greedy businessmen rather than the basic incentive in Qur economic system. Public opinion surveys in the 1930s and in more recent years are consistent in indicating that the general public thinks that profits account for approximately 28 percent of the sales dollar. The fact is, however, that profits account for approximately 5 cents out of each dollar of sales. Actual earnings of business firms are thus far below what the general public -- and some Members of Congress -- perceive them to be. In fact, corporate profits will have to improve substantially in order to provide the necessary incentives and to make the necessary contribution to futute investment outlays. My concern is that the negative attitudes about profits held by many Americans might become an unfortunate part of public policy. We must avoid legislation and regulation that is punitive of profits honestly earned. The result could only be that capital formation would be inhibited, and the real purchasing power of wage earners would rise more slowly. We must always be alert to the fact that profits translate into jobs, higher wages, and an increased standard of living for all of our people. One important reason why there is so much misunderstanding about corporate profitability is that our accounting system has not yet been able to adapt to the disruptive effects of the double-digit rate of inflation we have suffered. Inflation hurts investment by increasing the prices of new assets and eroding the purchasing power of corporate earnings. Taxes must be paid on reported earnings even though these figures are exaggerated by inventory valuation profits and the inadequacy of capital recovery allowances, which are based on the historical costs of existing assets rather than the inflated outlays required for new assets. Inflation also disrupts investment by discouraging savings once the general public recognizes that the purchasing power of such commitments is eroded so quickly. 99l Fortunately, the Department of Commerce publishes figures which attempt to adjust for the distorting effects of inventory valuation, the effects of accelerated depreciation methods and the understatement of capital recovery allowances based on historical cost asset values. The results of these adjustments are summarized in Table 7. These figures clearly indicate that adjusted after-tax profits of nonfinancial corporations as a share of national income and of the value of corporate output are far lower than the public opinion polls would suggest. Furthermore, from a peak in 1965 through 1973 the relative share of corporate after-tax profits has declined by one-half according to both measures. The same discouraging pattern results when these adjusted earnings figures are compared to the replacement value of capital assets to determine the rate of return on invested capital. From a peak rate of return of 10 percent. In 1965 this measure declined to 5.4 percent in 1970 before recovering to a level of 6.1 percent in 1973. The sluggish economy of 1974 and 1975 will further reduce this figure. It is not unfair to say that the United States has been and remains today in a profits depression. Since the incentive for new investments ultimately depends upon sustaining an attractive rate of return on capital, this trend is particularly disturbing. It should be emphasized that all of these comparisons have been stated in current dollars which conceals the negative impact of inflation on the purchasing power of retained earnings. Professor John Lintner of Harvard University recently reported that the retained earnings of U.S. nonfinancial corporations were 77 percent lower in 1973 than in 1965 if the figures are converted into constant dollars in order to remove the effects of inflation and if adjustments are made to remove the effects of inventory valuation gains and the underreporting of depreciation changes based on historical costs. Without these adjustments, reported retained earnings in 1973 were 46 percent above the 1965 figure. 3/ Because business firms cannot use "phantom" earnings to acquire capital assets, the future pace of private investment will depend upon the growth of real profits. The government can influence the economic incentives needed to stimulate investment through its tax policies, regulatory and administrative practices and various spending programs, but the private investment decision ultimately depends upon the rate of return expected and 3/Lirfther, John, "Savings and Investment for Future Growth: 1975-6 and Beyond," presented at a colloquium on "Answers to Inflation and Recession: Economic Policies for a Modern Society," conducted by The Conference Board, Washington, D.C., April 8-9, 1975, p.15. - 26 the availability of adequate financing at a reasonable cost. Government officials and the general public must recognize the basic importance of corporate profitability and the disruptive effects of excessive government spending pressures -pressures which create deficit financing requirements that take precedence over private investment needs in the capital markets. This problem has not received adequate attention. IV. SUMMARY As we strive to end the most severe economic recession in our postwar experience, my deep and abiding concern about the future adequacy of capital investment will perhaps appear to be ill-timed to some analysists. There is extensive slack in our economy with an unemployment rate near 9 percent and reduced rates of plant capacity utilization in many" specific industries. The economic slide, however, will not last much longer, and we will again be reporting real growth gains before the end of the year. As the pace of economic activity accelerates, we will likely rediscover shortages of labor and production capacity. In fact, some industries still have high plant capacity utilization ratios, and many types of skilled labor will be difficult to find even in the early stages of economic recovery. In 1971 it was widely believed that extensive slack existed but the economy was again operating at a very high rate of capacity by 1972 and shortages and explosive inflation soon occurred. Our statistics on plant capacity have always been uncertain measures, and current economic conditions have motivated the Department of Commerce to give top priority to a comprehensive survey of production capacity as a basis for preparing more meaningful estimates of plant capacity utilization rates. It is ironic that such a fundamental factor in preparing national economic policies has been based on such uncertain economic statistics. Dr. Pierre Rinfret, President of a well known economic consulting firm, Rinfret Boston Associates, Inc., has published an impressive study of the national production capacity which indicates that our current government statistics grossly underestimate the rate of capacity utilization in American industry and that there is virtually no reserve capacity. His study estimates that the capacity utilization rate for manufacturing industries was 86.6 percent in 1974 (Table 8) a figure well above the government's estimate for 1974, of 78.9 percent. It should also be emphasized that the concept of operating at 100 percent of physical capacity is misleading. Over the last fifteen years the government figures indicate that manufacturing capacity utilization has averaged only 83 percent despite some periods of intense output. The highest figure reported by the government during these fifteen years was 91.9 percent for 1966. Most companies need to preserve some reserve capacity to handle unexpected output requirements and to substitute for operating assets which need repairs or replacement. Therefore, the existing government figures do not accurately measure the realistic level of capacity utilization. 27 - ?y i y L^ Looking beyond the current problems of recession and sustaining an economic recovery, the additional capital investment of at least $4 trillion from 1974 to 1985 represents a major challenge to the future growth of our economy. We must also give careful attentiontment to the problems of specific industries in attracting needed invest for balanced growth. I am confident that these basic goals can be ,. K O J R n t t h e desired results will require government S which wi 1 moderateInflation and balance the Federal S t r o v e ? time in order to avoid diverting needed capital awaffrom Investment and into the financing of chronic government deficits A continuation of the fiscal and monetary distortions o? the past decade will only frustrate our capital ^vestment future. and lead to still more serious economic problems in the efforts Thank you. - oOo - TABLE 1 Average Annual Rate of Change in Real Growth for Member Nations of OECD, 1960-70 (percent) Japan Greece Portugal Yugoslavia France Italy Canada Finland Australia Netherlands Norway Eelgium Denmark West Germany Austria Iceland Ireland U.S. Luxembourg United Kingdom Source: 11.1 7-6 6.3 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 2.8 Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. TABLE 2 Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 1950-1974 (Billions of dollars) PART A. Nominal Dollars Residential Structures Year Total Nonresidential Structures and Producers' Durable Equipment 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974p $47.3 49.0 48.8 52.1 53.3 61.4 65.3 66.5 62.4 70.5 71.3 69.7 77.0 81.3 88.2 98.5 106.6 108.4 118.9 131.1 131.7 147.4 170.8 194.0 195.6 27.9 31.8 31.6 34.2 33.6 38.1 43.7 46.4 41.6 45.1 48.4 47.0 51.7 54.3 61.1 71.3 81.6 83.3 88.8 98.5 100.6 104.6 116.8 136.8 149.6 19,.4 17..2 17,.2 18..0 19.,7 23..3 21..6 20..2 20..8 25..5 22..8 22.,6 25..3 27.,0 27.,1 27.,2 25..0 25. 1 30.,1 32.,6 31.,2 42. 8 54. 0 57. 2 46. 0 37.5 39.6 38.3 40.7 39.6 43.9 47.3 47.4 41.6 44.1 47.1 45.5 49.7 51.9 57.8 66.3 74.1 73.2 75.6 80.1 77.2 76.7 83.7 94.4 94.1 23.5 19.5 18.9 19.6 21.7 25.1 22.2 20.2 20.8 24.7 21.9 21.6 23.8 24.8 24.2 23.8 21.3 20.4 23.2 23.7 22.2 29.1 34.3 32.9 24.0 PART B. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974p Source: Constant 1958 Dollars 61.0 59.0 57.2 60.2 61.4 69.0 69.5 67.6 62.4 68.8 68.9 67.0 73.4 76. 7 81.9 90.1 95.4 93.5 98.8 103.8 99.5 105.8 118.0 127.3 118.1 Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis TABLE 3 Output and Investment by Sector 1969-1971 Averages United States Germany Canada Japan Sector Percentage of Total Output: PARTITION A Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities General Services (Dwellings) (Government) (Other Services) Total France United Kingdom (Current price percents) 3.0 1.6 30.3 2.3 62.8 (5.4) (14.7) (42.7) 100 5.9 0.8 45.3 1.8 46.2 (4.5) (8.8) (32.9) 100 3.2 2.2 50.4 2.3 41.9 (3.8) (9.4) (28.7) 100 2.6 1.4 33.5 2.8 59.7 (2.3) (10.1) (47.3) 100 3.9 3.4 26.6 2.4 63.7 (3.3) (14.0) (46.4) 100 7.3* 0.9 43.0 2.0 46.8 (NA) (3.1) (NA) 100 Sector Percentage of Total Investment Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities General Services (Dwellings***) (Government) (Other Services) Total 3.8 1.0 19.7 5.2 70.3 (19.9) (20.4) (30.0) 100 PARTITION B 4.6 .7 27.8 3.9 63.0 (26.3) (12.8) (23.9) 100 5.3** 1.3 25.2 5.0 63.2 (22.2) (9.9) (31.1) 100 Sector Ratios: 2.6 1.5 23.8 8.6 63.5 (15.1) (15.9) (32.5) 100 5.5 7.5 16.6 9.4 61.0 (21.5) (17.9) (21.6) 100 5.9 .9 26.8 3.9 62.5 (17.9) (24.9) (19.7) 100 Investment Percentages Divided by Output Percentages Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities (leiirrill fliTvicoii (Dwellings) (Government) (Other Services) Source: 1.3 0.6 0.7 2.3 1. 1 (3.7) (1.9) (0.7) 0.8 0.9 0.6 2.2 1 .4 (r>.H) U.'J) (0.7) 1.7 0.6 0.5 2.2 1 .5 ( ).B) (1.1) (1.1) f 1.0 1.1 0.7 3.1 .1 .1 (6.6) (1.6) (0.7) 1.4 2.2 0.6 3.9 1.0 (6.5) (1.3) (0.5) 0.8 1.0 0.6 2.0 .1.3 (NA) (8.0) (NA) OECD, Nat:ional Acco unts of OECD Countries, 196071. * Output averages of Japan are for 1969-70 ** Investment averages of Germany are for 1967-68. *** Investment in owner-occupied dwellings. For Canada, France and the United Kingdom the figure is from residential investment, which differs slightly from the former category. TABLE 4 FEDERAL BUDGETS CHANGES IN THE UNIFIED BUDGET OUTLAYS BY FISCAL YEAR, 1961-1976 (dollars in billions) Fiscal Year over Preceding Year Federal Outlays Dollar Increase Percentage Increase 1961 $ 97.8 $ 5.6 6.1 -3.4 1962 106.8 9.0 9.2 -7.1 1963 111.3 4.5 4.2 -4.8 1964 118.6 7.3 6.1 -5.9 1965 118.4 -0.2 — -1.6 1966 134.7 16.3 13.8 -3.8 1967 158.3 23.6 17.5 -8.7 1968 178.8 20.5 13.0 -25.2 1969 184.5 5.7 3.2 +3.2 1970 196.6 12.1 6.6 -2.8 1971 211.4 14.8 7.5 -23.0 231.9 20.5 9.7 -23.2 1973 246.5 14.6 6.3 -14.3 1974 268.4 21.9 8.8 -3.5 1975 (est.)* 313.4 45.0 16.8 -34.7 1975 (est.)** 324.2 55.8 20.8 -42.2 1972 Surplus or Deficit • * Last official budget estimates published February 3, 1975. ** May estimate of OMB as to expected FY 1975 outlays and most recent, May , Department of Treasury FY 1975 receipts. Source: Economic Report of the President, February 1975, Table C-64, p.324, for years 1961 through 1974. TABLE 5 Comparison of General Tax Revenue Sources. 1971 Unite i States 1'ax Revenue by Type Corporate Income 4 Profit — <V£fuon.» 30?34 France Germany T o U . fti!£. m l l U « > 10.4% 18747 ?.U1 5.8% JSS'L..-) 11655 ?oU. 4.5% United KtngflprrValue % of ('££» „ * U ~ > To.a. 7.8% 1558 Japan ,. Canjgda Value <cin*l.i»> 3080 of To.a. 10.2% Value % of ,Y.. n,.»i~.» ToU. 2977 18. 8 % 10.1 26.9 6668 33.2 10221 24.0 32492 70295 3R02 98176 33.6 33.9 Household Income & Profit — 2/ Consumption Taxes —' 73425 28.1 5340 26.6 R660 ?0. 7 34.8 32R9 18.1 112139 28.7 52698 88430 33.8 2828 14.1 2463 20.0 134802 41.9 3174 20.7 8.2 Social Security Contributions 60286 23916 17655 6.7 3685 5710 19.0 16. S 17.2 7.4 2612 50301 18.3 Other Taxes 100.0% 322096 20079 100.0* i oo. or. 15854 291695 30134 Total 00. 0% 76)460 100.0% 100.0% Comparison Excluding Social Security Distributions 11.1% 23.5% 38.6 37.0 30.0 42.4 31.0 31.3 25.9 10.2 21.4 20.6 20.6 13.1% 10.0% Household Income & Profit 1 42.4 17.3 40.6 Consumption Taxes — 22.8 59.9 Other Taxes 21.7 12.8 Total 231409 100.0% 187294 100.0% 9.0% 6.8% Corporate Income & Profit — J7303O 100.0% 17251 100.0% 27671 100.0% 1/ Includes capital gains. 2/ Defined as taxes levied on transactions in goods and services on the basis of such intrinsic characteristics as value, weight, strength, etc. 1 ?he source d o c L e n t provides further elaboration concerning tax category defin.Uons. SOURCE: Revenue Statistics of OECD Member Countries 1965-1971. OECD. 126*0 100.0% TABLE 6 Comparative Cost Recovery Allowances for Industrial Machinery and Eguipment Country Representative Cost-Recovery Period (years) Canada 2 France 8 Japan 11 First Taxable Year First 3 Taxable Years First 7 Taxable Years */ 50.0 100.0 100.0 W 31.3 90.3 */ 37.1 S/ 63.9 88.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 c/ United Kingdom 1 Western Germany 9 f/ 16.7 9/ 49.6 88.8 h/ with investment credit but without ADR (Accelerated Depreciation Range) 13 i/ 21.7 j / 47.9 80.1 33.9 66.1 54.7 88.5 100.0 United States: without either investment credit or ADR 13 i/ 7.7 with both investment 10-1/2 i/ k/ 23.5 j/ credit and ADR a/ Beginning May 1972 machinery and eguipment acguired for manufacturing or processing of goods in Canada could be written off over two years (50 percent per year). b/ 250 percent declining balance method multiplied by a factor of 2 to give effect to multiple shift operations. c/ vear. Method changed to straight line in fourth taxable year. applied to original cost in such year. */ Modified double declining balance method; 18.9 percent per Japanese Government rate table multiplied by a factor of 1.28 to give effect to multiple shift operations. e/ Includes special first year allowance of 25 percent; allowance reduces recoverable base cost in second and succeeding taxable years. f/ The average cost recovery period for machinery and eguipment in Western Germany is 8 to 10 years to which additional allowances are permitted for multiple shift operations: 25 percent of allowance for two-shift operations and 50 percent of allowance for three-shift operations. Allowances may be further increased when plant is located in certain areas such as Berlin, areas bordering on iron curtain countries, and undeveloped areas. Straight line rate -2(TABLE 6) f/ continued Cost recovery allowances based on an average cost recovery period of 9 years. The double declining balance method is used. A 25 percent additional allowance for two-shift operations is taken into account beginning with the fifth year when the method is changed to straight line. The corporate depreciation rate thus computed is slightly over the maximum 20 percent rate permitted on a declining balance method to reflect that: (A) The straight line method produces more depreciation than does the double declining balance method for certain shortlived assets; and (B) Items of machinery and eguipment costing under U.S. $200 can be expensed. No other incentives have been taken into account. g/ Full year allowance in first taxable year for assets acguired in first half of such year; half year allowance for assets acquired in second half. h/ Method changed to straight line in fifth taxable year. i/ Double declining balance method. j/ Includes 14 percent allowance equivalent to 7 percent investment credit at effective 50 percent income tax rate. Credit does not reduce recoverable base cost. k/ 13-year recovery period reduced by 20 percent and rounded to nearest one-half year. SOURCE: Statement of Arthur Anderson and Company, before the Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, April 16, 1973. TABLE 7 l»«l'«-TIC IROMT$J5r WOM tt:»n< lAXCOKTrWATlOtJS. dillions if dollar*) Adjustments V.ar Wonfinancial don*atic Ii-fits of nonfirancial corporatlona Tor inventory profit• or loatas To •tandardisa drprrciatIon tie t hod 1/ To atondardlaa depreciation on If pl*< i«i'nl cost bati• 27 Adjusted domestic profJta of nonfinancial corporatlona Tai liability Adjusted after-tax profita of domestic nonfinancial corporations wtroirrro HID Jkroi'STHD. National Incona Adjusted after-tan profits Of d O M B t l C corporation* aa parcent of national in coac 1950-1973 Grose product originating in nonfinancial corporations Adjusted *fi r-t.» | u f i « » of nonf »na.-,: i«l :SIJI t*- it's as percer.i of <;n..» |i,l..' origtnat it.? in noi.f I M M , i.i ctri-crativt.t —' 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1956 1959 38.5 39.1 33.8 34.9 32.1 42.0 41.8 39.8 33.7 43.2 -5.0 -1.2 1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -1.7 -2.7 -1.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.5 -3.6 -4.4 -4.6 -4.3 -4.1 -4.2 -5.1 -5.7 -5.6 -5.5 29.5 33.4 30.2 30.2 29.2 39.0 36.8 35.8 30.9 40.7 16.7 21.0 17.8 18.5 15.7 19.8 19.8 18.9 16.3 20.8 12.8 12.3 12.4 11.7 13.5 19.2 17.0 16.9 14.6 19.9 241.1 278.0 291.4 304.7 303.1 331.0 350.8 366.1 367.8 400.0 5.3 4.4 4.3 3.8 4.4 5.7 4.9 4.6 4.0 5.0 151.7 174.3 182.0 194.7 191.6 216.3 231.2 241.9 236.0 263.7 8.4 7.1 6.8 6.0 6.9 8.8 7.4 7.0 6.3 7.6 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 40.1 40.3 44.7 49.1 55.8 65.8 71.2 66.2 72.4 68.0 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -1.7 -1.8 -1.1 -3.3 -5.1 3.4 3.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.3 7.4 -5.1 -4.5 -4.1 -3.7 -3.5 -3.8 -4.2 -4.8 -5.4 -7.8 38.6 38.8 46.2 50.1 57.0 66.0 71.2 66.3 70.0 62.5 19.5 19.8 20.9 22.9 24.3 27.6 30.1 28.4 34.0 33.7 19.1 19.0 25.3 27.2 32.7 38.4 41.1 37.9 36.0 28.8 414.5 427.3 457.7 481.9 518.1 564.3 620.6 653.6 711.1 766.0 4.6 4.4 5.5 5.6 6.3 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.0 3.8 273.1 278.4 302.8 320.0 346.0 377.6 413.0 430.8 469.9 504.3 6.9 6.8 8.4 8.5 9.4 10.2 9.9 8.8 7.6 5.7 1970 1971 1972 1973 55.7 63.2 76.3 95.8 -4.8 -4.9 -7.0 -17.6 7.6 8.2 9.4 10.2 -9.1 -10.1 -11.4 -12.5 49.5 56.4 67.3 75.9 27.6 29.8 33.4 40.7 21.9 26.6 33.9 35.2 800.5 857.7 946.5 1065.6 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.3 519.1 555.1 614.3 684.3 4.2 4.8 5.5 5.1 1/ The adjustment to standardize depreciation method is equal t > the difference between tax depreciati on and ~~ depreciation calculated assuming a straight-line depreciation formula and 85% of the Internal Revenue Service's 1942 edition of Bulletin F service lives. 2/ The adjustment to put depreciation on replacement cost basis is equal to the difference between depreciation as calculated on the assumptions stated in the preceding note and as calculated using the same assumptions but on a current rather than historical cost basis. Numbers in this and following table may not add because of rounding. * Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis ON TABLE 8 CAPACITY UTILIZATION: March 1975 Is this level of operation higher, lower, or about the same as in 1974? Industry All Industries* Utilization Rate 84.5 (Percent Distribution) Higher Lower Same 13.2 45.0 41.7 Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing* 86.6 78.6 14.2 10.5 51.3 28.1 34.4 61.4 Manufacturing Dunble Goods Primary Metals Iron & Steel Nonferrous Metals Electrical Machinery Nonelectrical Machinery Transportation Equipment Motor Vehicles & Parts Aerospace S.one, Clay & Glass Other Durable Goods 86.6 86.6 89.7 90.5 88.0 87.2 94.5 75.3 79.2 67.2 77.7 85.7 14.2 12.8 8.7 11.8 0.0 50.0 15.0 23.5 11.1 42.9 0.0 0.0 51.3 50.0 39.1 23.5 83.3 0.0 40.0 58.8 77.8 42.9 72.7 72.7 34.4 37.2 52.2 64.7 16.7 50.0 45.0 17.6 11.1 14.3 27.3 27.3 Nondurable Goods Food & Beverage Textiles Paper Chemicals Petroleum Rubber Other Nondurable Goods 86.7 89.2 72.5 87.9 82.3 89.7 80.4 82.1 16.2 23.5 0.0 0.0 33.3 22.2 0.0 14,3 52.9 17.6 100.0 80.0 50.0 22.2 100.0 57.1 30.9 58.8 0 20.0 16.7 55.6 0.0 28.6 Nonmanufacturing* Mining Railroad Air Transportation Other Transportation Public Utilities Electric Gas & Other Commercial & Other 78.6 94.8 87.1 81.0 89.4 76.6 74.3 86.0 78.0 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 12.5 12.5 16.7 28.1 0.0 75.0 66.7 50.0 22.5 18.8 37.5 16.7 61.4 100.0 25.0 33.3 50.0 65.0 68.8 50.0 66.7 * Excludes Communication. Source: 1975 Capital Investment Surveys; Rinfret Boston Associates March 1975, P e r s p e c t i v e — 5 GPO 890-208 Inc. WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE WQ4-2Q41 ____ /789 May 7, 1975 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 7-YEAR TREASURY NOTES The Treasury has accepted $1.5 billion of the $3.9 billion of tenders received from the public for the 7-year notes auctioned today, The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield Highest yield Average yield 7.96% 8.02% 8.00% 1/ The interest rate on the notes will be 8%. the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.212 High-yield price Average-yield price At the 8% rate, 99.894 100.000 The $1.5 billion of accepted tenders includes 71 % of the amount of notes bid for at the highest yield and $0.3 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $1.2 billion of tenders were accepted at the average-yield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Excepting 5 tenders totaling $53,000 Department of theTRE/[$URY INGTOIM, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY TO THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF BUSINESS WRITERS MAY 7, 19 75 Mr. Rowen, Members of the Society of American Business writers, and distinguished guests: I welcome this opportunity to meet again with you and to talk about the subject of continuing concern to all of us: ; the state of our economy. As you will recall, the Administration started out early this year with essentially three economic goals, all of which were interrelated: -- First, to end the recession; -- Second, to reduce the rate of inflation; and, -- Third, to achieve greater self sufficiency in energy and reduce our vulnerability to foreign disruptions of our energy supplies. With four months of the year now behind us, it is apparent-and I know that you have written about this almost to the point of exhaustion-- that we have made encouraging progress on two of those fronts. Ten days ago I returned from an extended trip around the world that enabled me to speak with finance ministers and several heads of state on a wide range of economic issues. One of those meetings was in Paris where I conferred with the finance ministers from the OECD Nations of Western Europe and Japan. It was the near unanimous view among those ministers that the Western world is nearing the end of the current recessionary cycle. Here in the United States, there are solid grounds for believing that as much as 75 per cent of the recession is already behind us. With an audience as knowledgeable as this one, I can be brief in addressing this matter. WS-295 - 2In my view, two factors have been especially important in bringing us close to the end of the recession. One has y been the rapid liquidation of inventories, which reached a record level in the first quarter of this year. The importance of this liquidation process is that in many industries sales are moving ahead more rapidly than production. As that continues, we can expect an increase in production in order to meet demand. And as that happens, of course, we will be entering upon the recovery. ir; The inventory liquidation reflects another factor of equal importance: the turnaround in retail sales. Even apart from the influence of price rebates on auto sales, retail sales rose by a total of 3-1/2 per cent in the first quarter of this year and appear to have increased a bit further in April. There was also encouraging news in the employment figures released last Friday. While the rate of unemployment rose to 8.9 per cent, the highest level of the post-war period, the increase was a small one and--more importantly--April also brought the first increase in overall employment in half a year. There has also been a slight reduction in the rate of job laybffs, which has a crucial impact not only on unemployment but also upon public confidence. There are several other signs that are also pointing in the direction of recovery: -- As monetary policy has become more expansive and inflation has subsided, short-term interest rates have fallen and funds have begun flowing back into the thrift institutions. This sets the necessary precondition for an upturn in the hardhit housing industry. -- The reduction in the rate of inflation should also bring a significant increase in real earnings, which will help to increase consumer purchasing. -- Surveys already show that consumer confidence is perking up. -- And there has been a definite air of optimism in the stock market, where the Dow Jones has risen by some 35 per cent since its low point in 1974. In addition to these developments within the private sector, the Government has also taken several positive steps to assist the forces of recovery. As I mentioned, the Federal Reserve has already eased monetary conditions substantially and Board Chairman Arthur Burns has indicated that the Fed will continue to support the recovery while avoiding excessive stimulation. At the same time, the Congress has passed and the President has signed the biggest tax cut in our history. Combined with a large Federal deficit, the tax cut will give a strong boost to the economy. I am not suggesting that prosperity is at hand. During the coming months, much of the economic news will continue to be bleak, registering perhaps the last statistical expressions of the recession. I do suggest, however, that the economy is now providing mounting evidence that the recession will bottom out during the middle months of the year, quite possibly before mid-year. Before the end of the year, we will definitely be on the road to recovery. Thus, we are making considerable headway in achieving our first economic goal of ending the recession. On the second economic front--inflation--we have made even more progress--more, in fact, than anyone thought possible this quickly. The wholesale price index has dropped four months in a row, and its effects are already showing up in the consumer price index. By the end of this year, the' overall rate of inflation should be in the neighborhood of 6 per cent. On the third front--energy--I regret to say that progress has been painfully slow. Frank Zarb observed earlier this week that we are more vulnerable now to foreign oil disruptions than we were during the embargo, and I must say that I agree with that observation. If recent trends prevail, we will be dependent on foreign nations for more than half of our oil before the end of this decade. We cannot afford prolonged delays in attacking this problem. The President has set forth a sound, progressive program which would mobilize the forces of the marketplace to encourage conservation and simultaneously develop our own resources. While disagreements continue to exist with the legislative branch, we are working closely with the Congress and we remain hopeful that a national energy policy can be hammered out. In the final analysis, however, if the Congress does not act soon, the President will have no choice but to exert his own personal leadership once again by exercising the full powers of his office. - 4The Shape of Recovery Assuming that we can work out a reasonable agreement on energy between the Congress and the Administration--and I am still optimistic on that score--the most pressing economic question now before us is what shape the recovery will take. Will we bounce back vigorously? Can we sustain a steady, upward movement of the economy? Or will we begin climbing only to undertake a sorrowful repetition of the boom-andbust cycle of the past? The time has come, I believe, to begin taking a longer view toward our economic policies. In recent months, we ^ have been preoccupied with the immediate problems of fighting inflation and then with combating both inflation and recession. As we begin to emerge from the thick of battle, we must finally break the habit of resorting to short-term palliatives at the expense of long-term gains and instead take those steps which will correct the deep-seated imbalances in our economy and overcome the continuing scourge of inflation. I cannot overemphasize that the inflationary policies of the past are the chief culprit in creating our economic problems of today, and more than anything else, the threat of inflation remains our most fundamental long-term economic challenge. With both the recession and inflation now receding, we have a golden opportunity now to shape our policies to meet our long-term needs, and it would be a tragic mistake to pass it by. The concern that I have expressed on several occasions is that we will become overly impatient with the pace of the recovery and that enormous political pressures will be generated to speed it up through highly stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. Increasingly, we hear from some Members of the Congress that our first priority should be to end the recession as quickly as possible and that we should postpone worrying about the risk of new inflation until next year or later. I strongly disagree with that view, and I have argued as forcefully as I can that those are precisely the policies that led us into this thicket. Does it make any sense to spend our way out of this recession if we know that we are running a high risk of creating even more inflation and a more devastating recession in the future? To me, the answer to that question is self-evident. In order to avoid new errors in economic policy, we must finally be willing to pay the price of old ones. Since my warnings about the impact of huge deficits on the private capital markets have been the subject of considerable attention and debate in the press, I would like to try to set the argument in perspective. What I have said is that deficits in the range of $50 to $60 billion a year will create some strains in our financial markets, but they should be manageable. However, as I have emphasized--and as I shall continue to stress as long as the danger exists--deficits in the magnitude of $80 to $100 billion would be clearly excessive and dangerous. And in my talks with financial leaders around the country, I find that most of them agree with that view. In an ordinary recession, large-scale Federal borrowing can be accommodated in the private markets because private demands for funds are slack. In this recession, however, demands for funds are higher than we would otherwise expect. The effects of inflation are one of the prime reasons for this. Corporate borrowing also remains high because of the illiquidity and poor debt structure of our financial and non-financial institutions. Some corporations are also borrowing now because they are increasingly fearful of the inflation that would result if the Congress refused to stay within reasonable fiscal units. In addition, State and local borrowing remains high because of their strained fiscal positions. As a result of all of these factors, we are already experiencing some difficulties in the capital markets and interest rates have not declined as far as they normally would during a recession. The real danger, however, will arise not this year but next when the recovery will take hold and we will have a rising tide of private and public demands for funds.' It is well to remember that while our recession is 75 percent over, the borrowing to finance our deficits is only 25 percent completed. Based on the President's budget and current enactments, we expect that the Treasury will need to borrow some $75 billion in funds this calendar year--a billion and a half dollars a week. In 1976, if the outlay totals projected by the House Budget Committee are an accurate projection and if there is an extension of major tax provisions, our borrowing needs next year could reach $84 billion. As the recovery takes hold, it should be apparent that deficits of the $80 to $100 billion range could create a vicious borrowers. competition for funds between the Federal Government and private - 6Because the Federal Government always stands at the head of the line in the private money markets, that kind of competition could well disrupt the economic recovery that is now getting underway and ultimately lead to greater economic problems in the future. Interest rates could rise again, impeding or r aborting a recovery in the critical housing industry. Prime borrowers are already paying a high rate of interest. Even higher interest rates would create severe difficulties for them and would crowd out many small businessmen and borrowers who are not in higher-rated categories. In addition, such Government borrowing would further encroach on private demands for capital investment. As I testified before the Senate Finance Committee this morning, there is no greater long-range need within our economy than to shift our domestic priorities toward greater savings and capital formation and away from so much personal consumption and government spending. During the next few years, in order to replace existing plant and equipment and to meet our goals in energy, environmental improvements, transportation, housing, and in many other fields, our capital investments must be three times as large as those of recent years. Those investments translate into higher levels of productivity, into more jobs, and into a higher standard of living for all of our people. Clearly, if we impose large Federal demands upon the private sector we are preempting the critical needs for capital investment. The immediate impact of huge Federal demands during a period of recovery would depend, of course, upon the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Indeed, monetary policy will continue to be a critical element in shaping our economic prospects both now and in the future. If we create too much competition for funds, interest rates will remain above desired levels even if the Federal Reserve pursues a moderate policy. The other alternative is that the Federal Reserve might seek to accommodate the enormous borrowing requirements of the FederaJ. Government, as well as private demands, by creating an excessive growth in money and credit. That approach might temporarily ease the problem of financing the large Government deficits and the recovery, but the consequences of that action would soon catch up with us in the form of a reaccelerated inflation followed by a new recession and higher unemployment. This alternative; then, would have highly undesirable results, and it seems clear that we would be far wiser to avoid policy decisions which would force us to make such a Hobsonfs choice. As Secretary of the Treasury and chief financial officer of the United States, it is my duty to warn of the injuries that Arthur policies that could Ibe Burns intend that inflicted and to I believe pursue others on our so are tofinancial be long doing. misguided. as the and Letdangers me economic This emphasize exist, issystem the that course just by Ias am 9/ not predicting that these events will transpire, but it is essential that we be aware of the jeopardy in which we would place our hopes for recovery if we adopt excessive fiscal and monetary policies. Let me also add that I have been heartened by the recent debates on this matter within the Congress and by the efforts to impose a ceiling on the size of our deficits. There is growing awareness of the dangers that we face, and I am hopeful that that awareness will be translated into sound policies for the future. Policies for the Future What policies, then, should we follow in trying to steer the nation toward a steady, durable recovery? First and foremost, we must continue to support the forces of economic recovery so that we can end the hardships of unemployment and restricted growth. In warming up the economy, however, we must be equally careful not to overheat it. We must firmly resist the policies, as tempting as they are, of being overly stimulative in the fiscal and monetary areas. That will mean a slower period of recovery than we would like, but we are only guaranteeing more trouble for ourselves if we decide once again to take a short cut. Second, as we regain our prosperity, we must restore much greater discipline to our fiscal and monetary affairs. Instead of an unbroken string of Federal deficits, we should begin to pursue budget surpluses in good years so that we can free up more funds for capital investment. Third, and this is a theme you will hear increasingly in the future, we must lift the dead hand of governmental regulation from the many areas where it smothers economic incentives and growth. Reforms are clearly needed in the regulation of the energy industry, transportation and many other critical sectors in our society. Fourth, as I mentioned earlier, we must make a basic shift in our domestic policies so that we place less emphasis upon consumption and government spending and more upon savings, investment and capital formation. It is an economic fact of life that increased productivity is the only way to increase our standard of living. Finally, as I have stressed time and again, we must begin to place more reliance on ourselves and the free enterprise system and less upon government. The government has become so huge and domineering--and we have turned to it so often for solutions that have fallen short of our dreams--that the time has come to rediscover how much can be accomplished by private enterprise and - 8by men and women who are free to determine their own destinies. I know that some of you agree with me; some of you do not but believe that we ought to pursue other goals. I am not here today to ask that you support my positions, but in closing these remarks, I would like to ask that we continue to work together so that the choices for the future of our economy are clearly presented to the American people. That is the highest responsibility we share together. Thank you. 0O0 Contact: Robert E. Harper 964-5775 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MAY 8, 1975 TREASURY SECRETARY SIMON NAMES EDWARD L. PATTON U. S. SAVINGS BONDS CHAIRMAN FOR ALASKA Edward L. Patton, President, Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., Anchorage, is appointed Volunteer State Chairman for the Savings Bonds Program in Alaska by Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon, effective immediately. He will head a committee of business, banking, labor, government and media leaders who --in cooperation with the U. S. Savings Bonds Division -- assist in promoting Bond sales in the state. He succeeds Fred D. Chiei, Deputy Administrator, Federal Energy Administration, Anchorage, who receives the Treasury Department MAward of Merit". Patton is a native of Newport News, Va. He was graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1938, with a BS degree in Chemical Engineering. After graduation, he joined an affiliate of Standard Oil ( New Jersey ) -- now Exxon -- in Baton Rouge, La., working on several engineering assignments before going on active duty with the Navy in 1941. From 1941 to 1946, Patton served as commanding officer of a number of antisubmarine and escort ships in the Carribbean, North Atlantic and Pacific. After the war, he returned to Exxon in Baton Rouge and progressed through a number of management positions before transferring to Exxon's Norwegian affiliate to help in the construction of a new refinery. He returned to the United States in 1964 as an adviser for Exxon operations in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Far East. In 1966, he was transferred to Exxon's chief domestic affiliate to assume responsibility for the construction and operation of a new refinery complex in Benicia, Calif. Patton assumed his present post in August 1970, upon the formation of Alyeska. He and his wife, Dorothy, have twin daughters -- Judith, now living in Atlanta, and Laura, attending the University of Washington, Seattle. oOo .V DepartmentoftheTREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 SJ Eltii? A TELEPHONE WO4-2041 '789 For information on submitting tenders: TELEPHONE WO 4-2604 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 8, 1975 TREASURY TO AUCTION $2.0 BILLION OF NOTES The Treasury will auction to the public under competitive and noncompetitive bidding up to $2.0 billion of 2-year notes. The coupon rate for the notes will be determined after tenders are allotted. Additional amounts of the notes may be issued at the average price of accepted tenders to Government accounts and to Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. „ Jh<Eo^ Wlli bS Treasury Notes of Series 1-1977 dated May 27, 1975, due y » *I i C U S I P N O ' 9 1 2 8 2 ? E N 8 ) w i t h i n t e r e s t P ^ l e °" a semiannual basis on November 30, 1975, May 31 and November 30, 1976, and May 3L 1977. They will Soi,83,™ ^ * e g ^ e r e d ^ b e a r e r f o r m ± n denominations of $5,000, $10,000, • $100,000 and $1,000,000, and they will be available for issue In book-entry form. throuIn^vV^V116 n°teS mUSt b6 made °n May 27> 1975' Payment may not be made through tax and loan accounts. Definitive notes in bearer form will be delivered on or about June 4, 1975. Purchasers of bearer notes may elect to receive interim certificates on May 27, which shall be bearer securities exchangeable at face value for Treasury Notes of Series 1-1977 when available. Wedne^^ay^ "at'anf FelerV, '^ Vi EaSt6rn Dayllght S^ «-• • the Public Debt, Washington tntlT ^ f J * " " * 3 n d P tenders will b ^ c S 8 S f . r . l i l y ^ . . e _ ^ i n ^ ^ h0, , ^? , at the Burea that n ° " •«* • I nCOm Petiti- t0 under a postmark no later t h a ^ e s c S May 13 1*1%™;?* TSUCh agenCy • mUSt be ln the amount of $5,000 or a multiple thereof *nS _i'i t A the if a competitive tenae.,'__*___'t__m ^ : ~ ^ yield desired, n com etl Fractions may not be used in t-*n,w= °" P tive if a noncompetitive tender. n tatl n TENDER should be printed at _ h f w r £ T f ? ° ° ™ TREASURY NOTES" oe printed at the bottom of envelopes in which tenders are submitted. Place8T"tTl_e1S8ir8_nbte 6XPrTed iR temS °f annUal and noncom^titive'tenir w i n T " * P f "* yield in *-o decimal TenderS at the lowest yields, amount offered After a d; t Irmina^-o C C e P d /° th * 6 X t e n t r e q u i r e d t o a t t a i n the a coupon yield witl". J e S S S T t o ^ h . " ^ . 8 ! / . iTT.TT **' " " ^ nec 88a make the average accepted price 100.000 or .ess That will h ^ H ! 7.to 2£ romp^.i.-rte^L'a^oSeV^n-b T^ ^^££ "0^.^ bidder will Pay t J r S c ^ i S i S L T t o ^ S ' S S d " , . __? SpC-eSSfUJ T P e t l t i V e will be carried to three decimal nl««. 9 *-«... yIeld ttat l? I „in (OVER) produce P r x c e ca lculations ."£_•_.:',£ 117 -2or less will be accepted in full at the average price of accepted competitive tenders, which price will be 100.000 or less. Commercial banks, which for this purpose are defined as banks accepting demand deposits, and dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, may submit tenders for the account of customers, provided the names of the customers are set forth in such tenders. Others will not be permitted to submit tenders except for their own account. Tenders will be received without deposit from commercial and other banks for their own account, Federally-insured savings and loan associations, States, political subdivisions or instrumentalities thereof, public pension and retirement and other public funds, international organizations in which the United States holds membership, foreign central banks and foreign States, dealers who make primary markets in Government securities and report daily to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York their positions with respect to Government securities and borrowings thereon, Federal Reserve Banks, and Government accounts. Tenders from others must be accompanied by payment of 5 percent of the face amount of securities applied for. However, bidders who submit checks in payment on tenders submitted directly to a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury may find it necessary to submit full payment for the notes with their tenders in order to meet the time limits pertaining to checks as hereinafter set forth. Allotment notices will not be sent to bidders who submit noncompetitive tenders. Payment for accepted tenders must be completed on or before Tuesday, May 27, 1975, at the Federal Reserve Bank or Branch or at the Bureau of the Public Debt in cash, in other funds immediately available to the Treasury by May 27, or by check drawn to the order of the Federal Reserve Bank to which the tender is submitted, or the United States Treasury if the tender is submitted to it, which must be received at such bank or at the Treasury no later than: (1) Wednesday, May 21, 1975, if the check is drawn on a bank in the Federal Reserve District of the Bank to which the check is submitted, or the Fifth Federal Reserve District in the case of the Treasury, or (2) Monday, May 19, 1975, if the check is drawn on a bank in another district. Checks received after the dates set forth in the preceding sentence will not be accepted unless they are payable at a Federal Reserve Bank. Where full payment is not completed on time, the allotment will be canceled and the deposit with the tender up to 5 percent of the amount of notes allotted will be subject to forfeiture to the United States. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 8, 1975 RESULTS OF AUCTION OF 30-YEAR TREASURY BONDS The Treasury has accepted $0.75 billion of the $ 1.8 billion of tenders received from the public for the 30-year bonds auctioned today. The range of accepted competitive bids was as follows: Lowest yield 8.25% 1/ Highest yield Average yield 8.32% 8.30% The interest rate on the bonds will be 8-1/4%. At the 8-1/4% rate, the above yields result in the following prices: Low-yield price 100.000 High-yield price Average-yield price 99.232 99.450 The $0.75 billion of accepted tenders includes 55% of the amount of bonds bid for at the highest yield and $0.1 billion of noncompetitive tenders accepted at the average yield. In addition, $0.85 billion of tenders were accepted at the average-yield price from Government accounts and from Federal Reserve Banks for themselves and as agents of foreign and international monetary authorities. 1/ Excepting 2 tenders totaling $13,000 ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY ^ BEFORE ') THE TORONTO SOCIETY OF FINANCIAL ANALYSTS HAY 8, 1975 « PRESIDENT WILSON, MEMBERS OF THE TORONTO SOCIETY OF FINANCIAL ANALYSTS, AND DISTINGUISHED GUESTS: I WELCOME THIS OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO CANADA AND SPEAK WITH OLD FRIENDS ABOUT THE NEW PROBLEMS THAT WE FACE TOGETHER. I WAS LAST HERE IN MARCH WHEN I HAD THE PRIVILEGE OF MEETING WITH FINANCE MINISTER TURNER AND OTHER LEADERS IN YOUR GOVERNMENT, AND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON I HAD AN EXTREMELY CORDIAL MEETING WITH MR. TURNER IN MY OFFICE IN WASHINGTON. THUS, I FEEL ON FAMILIAR AND FRIENDLY GROUNDS AS I COME BEFORE YOU TONIGHT. WE RECOGNIZE, AS DO YOU, THAT THE ECONOMIES OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA ARE AMONG THE MOST HIGHLY INTERDEPENDENT IN THE WORLD. EACH COUNTRY IS THE OTHER'S BEST CUSTOMER. CANADA CONTINUES TO SEND ALMOST TWO-THIRDS OF ITS EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, AND OVER TWO-THIRDS OF YOUR IMPORTS ORIGINATE IN OUR COUNTRY. AT THE SAME TIME YOU ARE THE LARGEST PURCHASER OF OUR EXPORTS AS WELL AS OUR CHIEF SUPPLIER OF FOREIGN GOODS. ABOUT A FIFTH OF OUR EXPORTS COME HERE, AND ABOUT A FIFTH OF OUR IMPORTS ORIGINATE HERE. CANADIANS ARE ALSO REGULAR AND LARGE BORROWERS IN OUR LONGTERM CAPITAL MARKETS. GIVEN THESE INTERRELATIONSHIPS, IT IS TO BE EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE UNITED STATES EXPERIENCES THE WORST PEACETIME INFLATION IN ITS HISTORY FOLLOWED BY THE MOST SEVERE RECESSION IN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY MIGHT ALSO BE DAMAGED. CLEARLY THE RECESSION HAS DAMPENED UNITED STATES DEMANDS FOR CANADIAN GOODS AND HAS THUS DEPRESSED YOUR EXPORT POSITION. AT THE SAME TIME, I SHOULD POINT OUT THAT CANADA HAS TAKEN ACTIONS WHICH CUT BACK EXPORTS OF ENERGY WHICH POSE DIFFICULT PROBLEMS FOR THE UNITED STATES. y°d WE R E M A I N F U L L Y CONFIDENT, HOWEVER, THAT OUR DIFFERENCES CAN BE AMICABLY RESOLVED. IT IS MY HOPE THAT WE CAN ALWAYS TALK FRANKLY AND OPENLY WITH EACH OTHER ~ FRIENDS. AS EQUALS AND AS AFTER ALL, IF TWO OF THE OLDEST AND CLOSEST PARTNERS IN THE WORLD CANNOT WORK TOGETHER, WHO CAN? NOR SHOULD WE FORGET THAT THAT WHICH UNITES US REMAINS STRONGER THAN THAT WHICH DIVIDES. BY ANY OBJECTIVE STANDARD THE STATE OF U.S.-CANADIAN RELATIONS REMAINS BASICALLY HEALTHY. THAT IS ATTESTED TO EVERY YEAR BY OUR GROWING TRADE -- OVER 40 BILLION DOLLARS LAST YEAR ~ AND BY THE TENS OF MILLIONS OF OUR CITIZENS CROSSING THE BORDERS ON BUSINESS AND PLEASURE. THE DECEMBER MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT FORD AND PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU DEMONSTRATED THE SATISFACTION OF OUR LEADERS WITH THE GENERAL STATE OF OUR RELATIONSHIP AND OUR MUTUAL DETERMINATION TO MAINTAIN IT THAT WAY. I MIGHT ADD THIS WAS UNDERSCORED BY MY OWN IMPRESSIONS DURING MY RECENT OTTAWA VISIT WITH - « - •• -"E*f << FINANCE MINISTER TURNER. ALL OF US SHARE THE SENTIMENT EXPRESSED BY EXTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTER MACEACHEN IN HIS WlNNEPEG SPEECH ON RELATIONS BETWEEN OUR COUNTRIES. "WE ARE EACH OTHERS BEST FRIEND," HE SAID, "BY CHOICE AS WELL AS CIRCUMSTANCE." ENDING THE RECESSION OUR MOST IMMEDIATE MUTUAL CONCERN IS TO END THE RECESSION THAT IS AFFLICTING BOTH OF OUR ECONOMIES. FORTUNATELY, BOTH OF us APPEAR TO BE MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS. TEN DAYS AGO I RETURNED FROM AN EXTENDED TRIP AROUND THE WORLD THAT ENABLED ME TO SPEAK WITH FINANCE MINISTERS AND SEVERAL HEADS OF STATE ON A WIDE RANGE OF ECONOMIC ISSUES. ONE OF THOSE MEETINGS WAS IN PARIS WHERE I CONFERRED WITH THE FINANCE MINISTERS FROM THE OECD NATIONS, .-._ -5- L . °9 \\ IT WAS THE NEAR UNANIMOUS VIEW AMONG THOSE MINISTERS THAT THE WESTERN WORLD WAS NEARING THE END OF THE CURRENT RECESSIONARY CYCLE. IN THE UNITED STATES, THERE ARE SOLID GROUNDS FOR BELIEVING THAT AS MUCH AS 75 PERCENT OF THE RECESSION IS ALREADY BEHIND US. BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANCE THAT OUR OWN \r\ CoLnaday RECOVERY MAY HAVE HERE/\ I WOULD LIKE TO DWELL ON THAT SUBJECT FOR A FEW MOMENTS. IN MY VIEW, TWO FACTORS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT IN BRINGING US CLOSE TO THE END OF OUR RECESSION. ONE HAS BEEN THE RAPID LIQUIDATION OF INVENTORIES, WHICH REACHED A RECORD LEVEL IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS LIQUIDATION PROCESS IS THAT IN MANY INDUSTRIES SALES ARE MOVING AHEAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN PRODUCTION. As THAT CONTINUES, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND. AND AS THAT HAPPENS, OF COURSE, WE WILL BE ENTERING UPON THE RECOVERY. THE INVENTORY LIQUIDATION REFLECTS ANOTHER FACTOR OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE: THE TURNAROUND IN OUR RETAIL SALES. EVEN APART FROM THE INFLUENCE OF PRICE REBATES ON AUTO SALES, RETAIL SALES ROSE BY A TOTAL OF 3~L/2 PERCENT IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR AND APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED A BIT FURTHER IN APRIL. THERE WAS ALSO ENCOURAGING NEWS IN THE EMPLOYMENT FIGURES OUR GOVERNMENT RELEASED LAST FRIDAY. WHILE THE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE TO 8.9 PERCENT, THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE POST-WAR PERIOD, THE INCREASE WAS A SMALL ONE AND — MORE IMPORTANTLY — A.PRIL ALSO BROUGHT THE FIRST INCREASE IN OVERALL EMPLOYMENT IN HALF A YEAR. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF JOB LAYOFFS, WHICH HAS A -1 ^fl CRUCIAL IMPACT NOT ONLY ON UNEMPLOYMENT BUT ALSO UPON PUBLIC CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER SIGNS THAT ARE ALSO POINTING IN THE DIRECTION OF RECOVERY: -- FOR ONE THING, OUR INFLATION RATE HAS FALLEN FASTER AND FURTHER THAN ANYONE THOUGHT POSSIBLE. IN THE THREE MONTHS ENDING IN FEBRUARY, THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ROSE AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 6-1/2 PERCENT, COMPARED TO A PEAK RATE OF 15 PERCENT EARLY LAST FALL, AND INDUSTRIAL WHOLESALE PRICES INCREASED AT A RATE OF LESS THAN 4-1/2 PERCENT IN THE SAME THREE-MONTH PERIOD, COMPARED TO A PEAK RATE OF ALMOST 40 PERCENT LAST SPRING. BECAUSE OF A JUMP IN FOOD PRICES, THE OVERALL WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX RELEASED THIS MORNING SHOWED AN INCREASE, BUT THE INDUSTRIAL WHOLESALE PRICE FIGURES REMAINED VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. y;\y — THE REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF INFLATION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN REAL EARNINGS, WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE CONSUMER PURCHASING. — AS MONETARY POLICY HAS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE AND INFLATION HAS SUBSIDED, SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES HAVE FALLEN AND FUNDS HAVE BEGUN FLOWING BACK INTO THE THRIFT INSTITUTIONS. THIS SETS THE NECESSARY PRECONDITION FOR AN UPTURN IN THE HARD~HIT HOUSING INDUSTRY. — SURVEYS ALREADY SHOW THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS PERKING UP. -- AND THERE HAS BEEN A DEFINITE AIR OF OPTIMISM IN THE STOCK MARKET, WHERE THE DOW JONES HAS RISEN BY SOME 35 PERCENT SINCE ITS LOW POINT IN 1974. IN A D D I T I O N TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO TAKEN SEVERAL POSITIVE STEPS TO ASSIST THE FORCES OF RECOVERY. AS I MENTIONED, THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS ALREADY EASED MONETARY CONDITIONS SUBSTANTIALLY AND BOARD CHAIRMAN ARTHUR BURNS HAS INDICATED THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RECOVERY WHILE AVOIDING EXCESSIVE STIMULATION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CONGRESS HAS PASSED.AND THE PRESIDENT HAS SIGNED THE BIGGEST TAX CUT IN OUR HISTORY. COMBINED WITH A LARGE FEDERAL DEFICIT, THE TAX CUT WILL GIVE A STRONG BOOST TO THE ECONOMY. SUCH CHEERFUL ECONOMIC NEWS IN THE UNITED STATES IS AS WELCOME AS A SPRING RAIN AFTER A LONG DROUGHT. IN DISCUSSING IT, HOWEVER, I DO NOT MEAN TO SAY THAT PROSPERITY IS AT HAND. CERTAINLY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE NOT GOING TO BE A STEADY PATTER OF GOOD NEWS. ECONOMIC POLICY FACES ENORMOUSLY DIFFICULT CHALLENGES IN THE MONTHS AND YEARS AHEAD. OUR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD PEAK SOON, BUT EVEN IF THE RECOVERY PROVES TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY VIGOROUS, UNEMPLOYMENT WILL REMAIN UNACCEPTABLY HIGH FOR MONTHS TO COME. FURTHERMORE, INFLATION IS NOT GOING TO DISAPPEAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS AGAINST INFLATION, BUT WE MUST REMAIN VIGILENT BECAUSE INFLATION REMAINS OUR MOST SERIOUS LONG-TERM ECONOMIC CHALLENGE. SIMILARLY, OUR PROBLEM OF EXCESSIVE DEPENDENCE ON INSECURE AND OVERPRICED SOURCES OF FOREIGN ENERGY WILL REMAIN SERIOUS FOR SEVERAL YEARS EVEN IF WE TAKE IMMEDIATE CORRECTIVE ACTION AT HOME — AND SO FAR, THAT ACTION HAS BEEN PAINFULLY SLOW IN COMING. STILL ANOTHER LONG-TERM CHALLENGE OF IMMENSE IMPORTANCE IN THE UNITED STATES IS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO TRIPLE OUR LEVELS OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT AS WE MUST DO IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE OUR MOST FUNDAMENTAL GOALS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CHALLENGES WE FACE ARE THUS FORMIDABLE. OUR BASIC OBJECTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS IS TO ENSURE THAT OUR RECOVERY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT BUT DOES NOT PROCEED SO RAPIDLY THAT WE SACRIFICE THE PROSPECTS FOR -11 SUSTAINED DURABLE PROGRESS. ABOVE ALL, WE MUST RESIST THE TEMPTATIONS OF HIGHLY STIMULATIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. THE TAX REDUCTION THAT WAS ENACTED, ALONG WITH THE FEDERAL DEFICITS, WILL PROVIDE A STRONG BOOST TO THE ECONOMY. AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF EXPENSIVE FEDERAL SPENDING PROGRAMS ARE NOW BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED IN OUR CONGRESS ON THE THEORY THAT THEY ARE NEEDED TO SPEED UP THE RECOVERY. MOST -tte effect <&- r t OFTEN,ANEW SPENDING PROGRAMS <3/"e flOf 4 ^ / T FOR A YEAR TO EIGHTEEN MONTHS. PROGRAMS ENACTED IN COMING MONTHS WOULD NOT PUMP STIMULUS INTO THE ECONOMY UNTIL WE ARE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD FULL CAPACITY, AND THEY WOULD THUS CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEW INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. A SECOND DANGER OF OVERSIZED GOVERNMENT DEFICITS WOULD ARISE, AS YOU KNOW, IN OUR PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS. FOR 9L,PSEVERAL MONTHS, I HAVE BEEN EMPHASIZING THAT DEFICITS IN THE RANGE OF $50 TO $60 BILLION ~ THE RANGE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION HAS SET AS A CEILING — WILL CREATE SOME STRAINS IN OUR FINANCIAL MARKETS, BUT THEY SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE. HOWEVER, DEFICITS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF $80 TO $100 BILLION WOULD BE CLEARLY EXCESSIVE AND DANGEROUS. AND IN MY TALKS WITH FINANCIAL LEADERS, I FIND THAT MOST OF THEM AGREE WITH THAT VIEW. IN AN ORDINARY RECESSION, LARGE-SCALE FEDERAL BORROWING CAN BE ACCOMMODATED IN THE PRIVATE MARKETS BECAUSE PRIVATE DEMANDS FOR FUNDS ARE SLACK. IN THIS RECESSION, HOWEVER, DEMANDS FOR FUNDS REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS, INCLUDING THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION, THE ILLIQUIDITY AND POOR DEBT STRUCTURE OF MANY OF OUR FINANCIAL AND NONFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, THE ACTIONS OF SOME CORPORATIONS THAT ARE INCREASINGLY FEARFUL OF FUTURE INFLATION, AND THE STRAINED FISCAL POSITIONS OF MANY OF OUR STATE AND LOCAL UNITS OF GOVERNMENT. AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS, WE ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING SOME DIFFICULTIES IN THE CAPITAL MARKETS AND INTEREST RATES HAVE NOT DECLINED AS FAR AS THEY NORMALLY WOULD DURING A RECESSION. THE MORE SERIOUS DANGER, HOWEVER, WOULD ARISE NOT THIS YEAR BUT NEXT WHEN THE RECOVERY WILL TAKE HOLD AND WE WILL HAVE A RISING TIDE OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC DEMANDS FOR FUNDS. IT IS WELL TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE OUR RECESSION IS 75 PERCENT OVER, THE BORROWING TO FINANCE OUR DEFICITS IS ONLY 25 PERCENT COMPLETED. BASED ON THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGET AND CURRENT - MORE - ENACTMENTS, WE EXPECT THAT THE T REASURY WILL NEED TO BORROW SOME $75 BILLION IN FUNDS THIS" CALENDAR YEAR — A BILLION AND A HALF DOLLARS A WEEK. IN 1976, IF THE OUTLAY TOTALS PROJECTED IN OUR CONGRESS ARE AN ACCURATE PROJECTION AND IF THERE IS AN EXTENSION OF MAJOR TAX PROVISIONS, niJR BORROWING NEEDS NEXT YEAR COULD REACH $84 BILLION. THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF HUGE FEDERAL DEMANDS DURING A PERIOn OF RECOVERY WOUL^ DEPEND, OF COURSE, UPON TME MONETARY POLICY OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, INDEED, MONFTARY POLICY IS GOING TO BE A CRITICAL ELEMENT IN SHAPING O'P FCONOf'IC PROSPECTS BOTH NOW AND IN THE FUTURE. IF OVERSIZFD FEDERAL DEFICITS CREATE STRONG COMPETITION FOD FUNDS AMD THE FEDERAL PESF.RVE PURSUES A MODERATE POLICY, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WF WOULD DRIVE MP INTERFST RATFS AND ABORT THE PROCESS OC RECOVFRY. THE OTHER ALTERNATIVE IS 05Y THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MIGHT SEEK TO ACCOMODATE THE ENORMOUS BORROWING REQUIREMENTS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AS WELL AS PRIVATE DEMANDS, BY CREATING A MORE RAPID GROWTH IN MONEY AND CREDIT. THAT MIGHT POSTPONE THE ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE RECOVERY FOR PERHAPS A YEAR OR TWO, BUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT ACTION WOULD SOON CATCH UP WITH IIS IN THE FORM OF A REACCELERATED INFLATION FOLLOWED) BY A MEW RECESSION AND HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT. ROTH ALTERNATIVES, THEN, WOULD HAVE HIGHLY UNDESIRABLE RESULTS, AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT WE WOULD BE FAR WISER TO AVOID POLICY DECISIONS WHICH WOULD FORCE US TO MAKE SUCH A HOBSON's CHOICE. LET ME STROMGLY EMPHASIZE THAT I AM NOT PREDICTING THAT THESE EVENTS WILL TRANSPIRE; RATHER, I AM WARNING OF THE POSSIBLF RESULTS OF MISGUIDED FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. AND LET ME ALSO ADD — AND I KNOW THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR THIS AUDIENCE ~ THAT I HAVE BEEN HEARTENED BY THE RECENT DEBATES ON THIS MATTER WITHIN THE CONGRESS AND BY THE EFFORTS TO • IMPOSE A CEILING ON THE SIZE OF OUR DEFICITS. THE STEPS TAKEN BY THE CONGRESS IN RECENT DAYS REFLECT A GROWING AWARENESS IN OUR COUNTRY OF THE NEED FOR FISCAL AND MONETARY RESPONSIBILITY, AND I AM INCREASINGLY HOPEFUL THAT THIS AWARENESS WILL BE TRANSLATED INTO SOUND POLICIES FOR THE FUTUPE. POIICTFS FOR THF RLTHRF I HAVE LONG BELIEVED THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION THE UNITED STATES CAN MAKE TO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC PROGRESS IS TO MAINTAIN A STRONG, HEALTHY ECONOMY AT HOMC. ,,! HAT POLICIES, THEN, SHOULD THE "NITED STATES BE PURSUING, AMD HOW DO THEY RFLATE TO CANADA? FIRST, AND FOREMOST, WF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FORCES OF RECOVERY. IN WARMING UP THE ECONOMY, HOWFVER, WE MUST BE EQUALLY CAREFUL NOT TO OVFRHEAT IT. As 60 PERCENT OF THE AMERICANS SAID IN -1?. RECENT GALLUP POLL, INFLATION RRMAIMS O>IR SINGLE MOST FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC PROBLEM. "IT WAS INFLATION THAT HELPED TO PRODUCE THIS RECESSION, AND IT IS INFLATION THAT COULD CREATE ANOTHER RFCESSION OP F.VEN GREATER MAGNITUDE IF WE ADOPT MISGUIDED POLICIES TODAY, SECOND,, IN OUR EFFORT TO TAKE A LOMGFR LOOK AT OUR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, WE MUST MAKE A BASIC SHIFT IN OUR DOMESTIC POLICIES AWAY FROM OUR OVEREMPHASIS UPON PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TOWARD GREATER EMPHASIS UPON SAVINGS, CAPITAL FORMATION ANH CAPITAL INVESTMENT, IT IS AN ECONOMIC FACT OF LIFE THAT INCRFASED PRODUCT.VITY IS THE ONLY WAY TO INCREASE OUR STANDARD OF LIVING, AND YET THE RECORD OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE MNITED STATES IN RECENT YEARS HAS RANKED 17TH AMONG THE 2^ NATIONS OF THE OEC". - 18 THIRD, WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS URGENT THAT ALL OF THE OIL CONSUMING NATIONS, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA, MOVE AHEAD WITH STRONG AND CONSTRUCTIVE PROGRAMS IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY. WE FULLY SUPPORT THE DESIRES OF THE OPEC NATIONS TO ACHIEVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE PRICES THEY ARE NOW CHARGING FOR THEIR 01L ARE NEITHER JUSTIFIED NOR ARE THEY SUSTAINABLE. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL OF US MAINTAIN A BALANCED PERSPECTIVE WITH REGARD TO OPFC. THIS CARTEL, LIKE ALL OTHER CARTELS IN THE PAST, IS SUBJECT TO THE LAWS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. WHEN DEMAND FALLS, THE CARTEL HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO LOWER ITS PRICE OR TO LOWER ITS PRODUCTION. V'E ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS PROCESS AT WORK: BECAUSE OF REDUCED 3^ WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION, OPEC HAS NOW CUT ITS PRODUCTION BY OVER 12 MILLION BARRELS A DAY — ABOUT ONE THIRD OF ITS CAPACITY — IN ORDER TO HOLD THE LINE ON PRICES. WLTHIN A FEW MONTHS, OPEC'S SHUT-IN CAPACITY MAY RISE TO 15 TO 16 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL A DAY. FURTHERMORE, DURING THE LAST THREE YEARS, AS THE OPEC MEMBERS RECOGNIZE, SIGNIFICANT DISCOVERIES OF OIL HAVE BEEN MADE IN SOME 25 TO 30 AREAS OF THE WORLD OUTSIDE OF OPEC — UNCOVERING RESERVES ESTIMATED AT ROUGHLY 35 BILLION BARRELS. THESE NEW FIELDS COULD PRODUCE SOME 8 MILLION ADDITIONAL BARRELS A DAY BY THE EARLY 1980S, AND THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE NEW PRODUCTION COMING FROM THE UNITED STATES, THE SOVIET UNION, AND THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OC CHINA. AS THESE PRESSURES HAVE DEVELOPED, SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE CARTEL HAVE BEGUN SHAVING PRICES AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE THE FIRST CRACKS IN WHAT MANY.HAVE ERRONEOUSLY - 20 CLAIMED IS AN INPREGNABLE PRICE WALL. ,/ / As I HAVE SAID""" MANY TIMES IN THE PAST, IT IS NO LONGER A QUESTION OF WHETHER OIL PRICES WILL COME DOWN, BUT WHEN THEY WILL COME DOWN. BOTH OF OUR COUNTRIES SHARE A KEEN INTEREST IN THE LOWERING OF INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES. THE CANADIAN INTEREST IS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED HERE IN ONTARIO, YOUR INDUSTRIAL HEARTLAND. CLEARLY, THOSE WHO WILL GAIN THE MOST FROM A REDUCTION IN THE PRICE OF OIL ARE THE CONGESTED, INDUSTRIALIZED AREAS OF THE WESTERN WORLD. THUS, WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS IN THE INTEREST OF BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA TO WORK TOGETHER ON ENERGY MATTERS ~ NOT TO SEEK BENEFITS AT THE OTHER'S EXPENSE. STILL ANOTHER MAJOR ECONOMIC GOAL OF THE UNITED STATES — AND THE FINAL ONE THAT I WILL ADDRESS TONIGHT — IS-TO LOWER THE MANY BARRIERS THAT STILL EXIST IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE. "3^ THERE IS A CONTINUING DANGER THAT IN TODAY'S ECONOMIC CLIMATE COUNTRIES MAY TURN INWARD, ERECTING PROTECTIONIST WALLS THAT SHIELD THEM FROM THE OUTSIDE AND POSSIBLY SETTING OFF A NEW ERA OF "BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR" POLICIES. IT IS TRUE THAT THE SOLUTIONS TO EACH NATION'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS MUST BEGIN AT HOME, BUT IT IS EQUALLY TRUE THAT SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS CAN BE MADE THROUGH INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION. MOREOVER, IT IS NOT UNFAIR TO SAY THAT THE IMPORTANCE OF CANADIAN EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES DERIVES IN PART FROM THE FACT THAT WE HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY UNRESTRICTED MARKETS. I ALSO WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT WE WILL BE TAKING NO STEPS IN THE FUTURE TO BAR YOUR ACCESS TO OUR CAPITAL MARKETS. WE HAVE WELCOMED YOU IN THE PAST, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WELCOME YOU IN THE FUTURE. AT THE SAME TIME, WE HOPE THAT YOU WILL RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO IMPOSE RESTRICTIONS ON OUR ENTRY INTO YOUR -22 MARKETS. y9(f(- SUCH RESTRICTIONS MAY NOT APPEAR TO YOU TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT UPON OUR ECONOMY, BUT IN FACT THEY GREATLY STRENGTHEN THE PROTECTIONIST FORCES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR US TO CONDUCT AN OPEN AND EVEN-HANDED FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY. WE LOOK FORWARD TO ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY CANADA IN THE MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS AND AN EVENTUAL LOWERING OF TRADE BARRIERS THAT WOULD BE TO OUR MUTUAL BENEFIT. IN CLOSING, LET ME STRESS ONCE AGAIN OUR DESIRE FOR FRANK AND OPEN DISCUSSIONS WITH YOU-TO RESOLVE THOSE FEW DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST BETWEEN US. AS A NATION OF IMMIGRANTS, WE HAVE LEARNED FROM EXPERIENCE IN THE UNITED STATES THAT FROM A DIVERSITY OF VIEWS CAN COME GREATER STRENGTH, GREATER INSPIRATION -- AND GREATER FRIENDSHIP. IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT CANADA IS "BOUNDED ON THE NORTH BY GOLD, ON THE WEST BY THE ORIENT, ON THE EAST BY HISTORY ~ - 23 AND ON THE SOUTH BY FRIENDS." WE HOPE AND TRUST THAT WILL ALWAYS BE TRUE. THANK YOU. # # # # ^y Hello, I'm delighted to be with you today. And I like the subjects I've been asked to talk about — which are women and the economy. That's a nice, wide variety. Variety is what women are all about. And "all about" is where we are these days. We are mopping kitchen floors, raising families, living in communes, robbing banks, trying for the executive suite, and in general being as good, bad, smart, silly and cantankerous as men. Fifty percent of women between 18 and 65 are currently working. We're as well educated as men but, on the average, we earn only three-fifth's of a man's salary. There are many reasons for this and one — the main reason — is that many women work only on a part-time basis. For many women, jobs are secondary to their careers as wives and mothers. Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, New Jersey Federation of Republican Women, Atlantic City, New Jersey on May 8, 1975 Politics, of course, is one area that attracts / women. Mrs. Ella Grasso is now Connecticut's governor while Mary Ann Krupsak is the Lieutenant Governor of New York. A number of new women entered Congress this year, including your own Representative Millicent Fenwick who has, in the words of this week's Washington Post, become "a star of the 94th Congress freshman class." As you know, Mrs. Fenwick was once a member of the New Jersey State Assembly, and I loved her reply to a male colleague after she had proposed an Equal Rights Amendment. The man said, "I just don't like this amendment, because I've always thought of women as kissable, cuddly and smelling good." Mrs. Fenwick replied, "That's the way I feel about men too. I only hope for your sake that you haven't been as disappointed as often as I have." Other women politicians that quickly come to mind are that good friend of all of us, Mary Louise Smith, first woman chairman of the Republican National Committee, and Mrs. Carla Hills, our new Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and the third woman cabinet officer in history. In other areas, American women are scoring other gains. Congress outlawed credit discrimination based on sex last year. The Bank of America settled a class action suit on behalf of its female employees, which will mean about $10 million in additional income to women. 31* And the First Women's Bank — that's the name — is now organized in New York City, to become the first female-run and female-oriented bank in the country. . About 15 more banks are somewhere in the process of being organized. First Women's plans to set up a consumer finance library and investment and counseling services to help women with financial planning. Nov/, I've been talking about working women -- and automatically we think of paid jobs. put in a good word for volunteers. important to our society. mostly women — But I'd like to They are terribly Some 7 0 million people -- have volunteer jobs, and they contri- bute an estimated $50 billion a year to America's "gross national product." I am a wife, mother and dedicated believer in the value of volunteers. For the first quarter century of my adult life, I volunteered for everything from the PTA to the GOP. I was privileged to learn many techniques and skills this way, because a willing volunteer can often work with top people. I personally feel my route to a career was via the way of the volunteer. Today, I work full time as the United States Treasurer and as National Director of the Savings Bonds Division. I am heartened to know that 97 per- cent of the people who help sell bonds are volunteers. 37 I suspect — I hope — that some of you.; are among those workers in our program. Our National Savings Bonds goal for 1975 is 6.8 billion dollars in bond sales, and at least 2.4 million new or increased savers. New Jersey did very well in 1974 Bond sales, ranking 7th in dollar sales in the Nation. And that was a 13 percent increase over 1973. New Jersey has always been a leader — only in Savings Bonds. and not I learned the other day that New Jersey was the first state in the Nation to give women the right to vote. 1790's. That was way back in the However, some all-male legislature took it away in 1807 and the reason for this — clenched teeth — the state." I quote with was "the good order and dignity of Well, no comment. Meanwhile — back to Bonds -- where we do have good leadership right from the top. I was privileged to visit with President Gerald Ford a few weeks ago. He is a regular Savings Bonds buyer, and he told me that this year he is increasing his payroll deduction. Just last week, in fact, he bought the first $200 Bicentennial-design bond. I certainly don't need to tell you ladies all the advantages of Savings Bonds. of them. You already know most Bonds are a safe, convenient, painless way to save, with a very attractive 6 percent interest rate. A banker friend of mine has added up figures which show that over the last 5 years $7 5 invested monthly in bonds is worth more today than the same amount invested in stocks on the Moody's Industrial Index. Bonds also have tax advantages which can increase that 6 percent rate substantially. Finally, Savings Bonds help the nation. They put more of the Federal debt into the hands of longterm savers. They remain outstanding, on the average, for six years, while other marketable instruments turn over in three years or less. Almost a quarter of our publicly held national debt is in the form of Savings Bonds. So, our Bonds are good for America and good for Americans. Sales of series E and H bonds were at a 29-year high in 1974. And, so far this year, sales are even higher. In this period of inflation and recession, the proven performance of United States Savings Bonds is very appealing. Let's talk a little more about inflation and recession, and some of the other shocks that have hit our economy this past year. Since last May — — We have experienced the highest rate of inflation in our peacetime history. / — Our economy is in the worst slump in years. — Oil prices have quadrupled. — And $100 million of the world's wealth has been transferred to a small band of developing nations. These stories all made the headlines. But another story — equally as important — did not. And that is the story of how well our economic system has operated under conditions of extraordinary stress. Throughout 1974, the prophets of doom announced that our Ship of State was halfway under water and sinking fast. That isn't true and it won't be true. America is alive and well. The Ship of State still sails; the flag still flies; and most of us still live and love and fight with our husbands. Let's look at the record of some of the predictions, and then let's see what actually happened. — Prices on foreign oil jumped sky-high in 1974, and it was said that the international financial system might collapse, as massive sums of money were transferred. In fact, the financial institutions responded with considerable skill. OPEC funds were rather widely disbursed. And the oil consuming nations are presently working on new international agreements for future emergencies. Further, new oil discoveries outside of the OPEC nations, and new production in the United States and elsewhere will eventually result in lowered prices. For another example, let's consider the fears of some people that we are heading into another Great Depression. Of course, we've had a recession, but it did not come close to the conditions of the 1930's. Unemploy- ment figures in 1975 are well under half of the 1930's figures, and there are such safety nets as Social Security, medicare, unemployment payments, and food stamps. Treasury Secretary William Simon correctly predicted some months ago that the economic slide would bottom out during the middle months of this year, and that prediction is being widely borne out. Our free enterprise system still functions, and the laws of supply and demand still work. But, too often it seems to me, we tend to doubt our institutions and not our doubters. Since I am a strong advocate of the free enterprise system, people sometimes ask me, "If this system works so well, why is there such a high rate of inflation and unemployment?" There are several reasons. We fought a war in Viet Nam and charged it. We sustained world-wide crop failures. • 71C We suffered an oil embargo, and oil prices today are high. But more fundamentally, we have for years abused our economic system. The fact that it still functions so well is a great tribute to its basic strength. Our growing Federal government puts enormous demands on the economy. The proliferation of government regulations burdens both business and the consumer. Federal regula- tions, for example, added $320 to the price of a 1974 car. And, our national habits of encouraging consumption and federal spending at the cost of savings and investment is a very serious concern. Capital investment in the United States in recent years has been the lowest of any industrial nation in the free world. Secretary Simon and other government officials are working to turn some of these trends around. They feel, and I agree, that — We must restore greater discipline to our finan- cial affairs. r-- We must lighten the hand of government in many areas. -- And we must encourage savings, investment and capital formation. Finally, we must turn away from the doomsayers. / Despite our problems, we have an incredibly strong nation, both in spirit and in material goods. Now we need to speak to the good in each other. But we need to do more than speak — we need to act. As parents, we need to instruct our children in economics. We must transfer to them our knowledge of the supply and demand system; our belief in the free marketplace; and the legitimacy of profit. As business people, it is incumbent on us to take our knowledge and expertise into the classrooms, by actually serving as speakers and lecturers, and by seeing that our elected school board members transmit the need for sound economic education to the teachers. As citizens, we must demand that the news media make some effort to understand our economic system. As Republicans, we must make certain we do our work well. We must see that the voting public has a choice of candidates on election day. We must convince good people to run for office, we must then support them with our money, our volunteer time and efforts. We must conduct vigorous and effective registration campaigns, voter preference polls, get-out-the-vote campaigns and ballot security schools. Then after the elections are over, we must make certain our elected - ^n officials understand that good economics is gooa politics. As Americans, we must build on our strengths once more. Let us look back at our 200 years of history. Then let us look forward with confidence as we go about doing our jobs, raising our families and helping society. Thank you. EXCERPTS FROM THE REMARKS OF EDGAR R. FIEDLER ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC POLICY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY at the CONFERENCE ON RECESSION AND INFLATION IN AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLD UNITED STATES EMBASSY, LONDON May 9, 19 75 The tide of economic affairs in the United States seems to be turning. That tide has been running against economic progress so strongly and for so long it is a bit difficult to accept the idea of a turn for the better. Nevertheless, that is what seems to be happening at the moment. One key development is that the recession is ending. We do not yet have what lawyers would call hard evidence of the turn in the form of a change of direction in the statistics on production and employment or other measures of total business activity. There are, however, enough "recovery preconditions" in place, and the process of cyclical reversal is far enough along, to support a tentative conclusion that economic recovery is now underway. At the same time, the rate of inflation has subsided. This improvement has come about for two reasons. First, the impact of the transitory elements that pushed the U. S. inflation rate above the double-digit mark last year is almost entirely behind us now -- the quadrupling of crude oil prices, the food price explosion arising from the very short crops of 1972 and 1974, the price impact of dollar devaluation, and the temporary burst of price and wage increases that followed the end of the controls program (except for petroleum products) just a year ago. Second, the steep recession and the economic slack it created have pulled down the prices of WS-296 -2many raw materials and other cyclically sensitive commodities, and slowed the rate of increase in other areas. As a result, the consumer price index has risen at an annual rate of 6% percent in the 3 months ending in February, as compared to a peak rate of 15 percent early last fall, and industrial wholesale prices have increased at a rate of less than 4% percent in the 3 months ending February, compared to a peak rate of almost 40 percent last spring. Thus we are now seeing some cheerful economic news in the United States and it is as welcome as rain after a drought. In pointing out this turn for the better, however, I do not" want to suggest that we are all going to live happily ever after if we will only sit back and enjoy it. Certainly the economic news in the United States is not going to be a steady diet of pleasant reading from now on. Clearly, economic policy faces enormously difficult challenges in the months and years ahead. Unemployment should start to decline before too many months have passed, but even if the recovery proves to be exceptionally vigorous, unemployment is going to remain unacceptably high for a long time. Furthermore, inflation is not going to disappear. I think further progress is possible, but inflation will be an even more stubborn adversary from here on in. Similarly, the problem of excessive dependence on insecure energy supplies will remain serious for years to come, even if we take meaningful steps to curb our consumption and encourage new domestic development — and thus far action of that sort has been slow in coming. Another long-term problem in the U. S. economy that is of particular concern is the likelihood of an inadequate rate of capital formation. Our problems are thus many and formidable. In meeting them, the basic challenge for policymakers is to make sure that our economic recovery is vigorous enough to insure substantial progress in reducing unemployment, but without proceeding so rapidly that we sacrifice the prospects for sustainable prosperity with low inflation through the years. In particular, we must avoid getting back on the boom-and-bust roller coaster that has been our fate in recent years. To do so would only bring forth a new round of double-digit inflation and another recession subsequently. I worry that we are now sowing the seeds of just such an unhappy harvest several years down the road. A very large tax cut has been enacted to foster a healthy economic recovery. At the same time, however, a surfeit of those ever-popular Federal spending proposals — public works and every other sort of program — are being rushed through Congress on the rationale that they are needed to strengthen the recovery. If this flood of spending bills is not held in check, they will further bloat the already alarming momentum of the growth in government spending. This would, in turn, make it impossible to adequately throttle down the fiscal stimulus as the economy moves back toward full prosperity, and would turn a healthy recovery into an unrestrained boom. Such a development must be avoided if we are to attain steady, sustainable economic progress. We must prevent the expansion that lies ahead from becoming just a brief respite between bouts of economic overindulgence and debilitating inflation. Lessons of Our Recent Experience In our efforts to achieve sustained prosperity, we should be guided by experience. Surely the economic difficulties of the past decade have taught us a number of very basic and important economic lessons. One such lesson that both forecasters and policymakers surely must have learned is humility. The limitations to our understanding of how modern economies work and the inadequacies of our forecasting tools should be clear to all. The same can be said even more emphatically about our economic policy tools and our inability to "fine tune" the economy. The Costs of Fixed Exchange Rates. A second lesson of the experience of recent years is the heavy costs that are imposed when governments intervene too closely or for too long in the day-to-day workings of the economy. When I was here early last year, I discussed the two and one-half year U. S. effort at comprehensive, mandatory price and wage controls. On other occasions I have considered the problems of excessive industry regulation in such areas as transportation and natural gas. Today I would like to spend a few minutes on this same general theme in a territory I am usually careful to avoid: international economics. From September 1974 to late February 1975 the dollar weakened progressively in the foreign exchange markets. On a trade-weighted basis, the decline of the value of the dollar was not all that substantial — a bit less than 5 percent. Against a few individual currencies, however, the -4dollar dropped precipitously; in the neighborhood of 20 percent against the Swiss franc, for example. This development brought forth some mutterings of discontent about the floating exchange rate system. Those mutterings have subsided in recent days, but they are sure to surface again, and when they do I hope we will not forget the costs of a fixed exchange rate system. What I have in mind specifically is the enormous cost to the U. S. economy that is traceable directly to the maintenance of an overvalued dollar from the middle 1960s until August 1971. That cost was paid in 1973 and 1974, I contend, in the form of a serious loss of production and employment and a worsening of inflation. During the boom year of 1973, the U. S. economy reached the limits of its physical capacity at a much earlier point than many students of the business cycle had expected. Unemployment averaged 4-9 percent for 19 73, and the unemployment rate for married men averaged 2.3 percent. By contrast, the previous boom year for the economy, 19 68, saw an average unemployment rate of 3.6 percent, and for married men, 1.6 percent. Thus the economy hit its capacity limits in 1973 at a level that was more than one-third worse in terms of unemployment than in 1968. On further analysis, the reason for the early bump against our expansion ceiling turned out to be a series of bottlenecks in those industries that process basic materials, such as steel, nonferrous metals, paper, lumber, cement, textiles, and chemicals. We had not run out of the capacity to produce automobiles and clothing and machine tools and other finished goods, but our capacity to produce steel, paper and other basic materials was definitely being utilized at its limit. The point of this is that these basic materials are in most cases internationally traded commodities. In the late 1960s, with the dollar becoming increasingly overvalued under the fixed exchange rate system, the United States had been obtaining a larger and larger part of its needs for basic materials from abroad. Foreign suppliers had a relative price advantage in U. S. markets over our domestic producers, whose prices and profits were thus held down. New investment in these industries was thereby inhibited, and our domestic capacity failed to keep pace with the growth of the economy. In August of 1971 the value of the dollar was lowered, but at the same time price controls were imposed, which continued the downward pressure on the prices and profits and new investment of those industries that process basic materials. By the time the boom of 1973 arrived, four things had happened: (1) we were short of domestic capacity of basic materials relative to our own needs, (2) the simultaneous worldwide boom then in being meant that pressure on capacity was global, with no excess available anywhere, (3) foreign demand for our basic materials increased sharply because the shift in exchange rates made America an especially favorable place for the rest of the world to buy.those hard-to-get materials, and (4) our domestic price contrpls provided a special incentive for U. S. firms to sell in the export markets. As a result, the U. S. economy ran into severe supply bottlenecks of basic materials before it reached its capacity limits in other respects. Economic expansion ground to a halt. Production and employment were irretrievably lost. And inflationary pressures were raised still further. * > •. .• I do not want to suggest that the fixed exchange rate system and the maintenance of an overvalued dollar were responsible in the entirety for the premature halt to the. U. S. economic expansion of the early 1970s or for the explosion of inflation that occurred during that period.,; Nor do I want to suggest that the economy would have smoothly expanded throughout 1973 to a much higher level of output. r. Too many factors contributed to our troubles of the past couple of years for us to pick out a single dominant source of the trouble. The virtues of humility I mentioned earlier should keep us from drawing conclusions that are too firm. But I do want to suggest that the continually overvalued dollar of the late 1960s, although it brought us some temporary benefits at the time in terms of increased domestic availability of goods, carried heavy longer run costs and made a substantial contribution to our economic troubles of 1973 and 19 74. It is ironic that many people blame the devaluations of the dollar for generating domestic inflation, whereas in reality it was the failure to adjust exchange rates in the 1960s that made the eventual impact in the 1970s so severe. - 6 The Resiliency of Our Economic Systems. A third lesson that we should draw from the economic troubles of the past decade is the extraordinary ability our economies have demonstrated to adjust to severe outside shocks. The disastrous crop production years of 1972 (worldwide) and 1974 (U. S.) and the quadrupling of crude oil prices have certainly taken their toll in terms of both economic activity and inflation. But the more instructive point about these episodes, it seems to me, is that they did not produce the dire consequences that so many people expected at the outset. The international monetary system did not collapse under the massive weight of petro-dollars. Estimates of the future accumulation of funds in the OPEC nations have been scaled down from $600 billion to something on the order of $200 to $250 billion or perhaps less. All of our countries seem to be adjusting to the explosion of energy prices better than expected. Italy was widely thought, some time ago, to be "going down the drain". In the United States forecasts of $1.00 a loaf bread, $1.00 a pound sugar, arid $1.00 a gallon gasoline received broad circulation and acceptance. Despite our awful inflation, none of these has come to pass. I don't think we ought to congratulate ourselves for avoiding all the calamities that had been forecast,- but I do think the recent experience with these massive economic shocks suggests that — contrary to our usual reaction — we do not need to consider an emergency, radical restructuring of society every time such a shock comes along. To me, the lesson is that our economies have more inherent resiliency and more ability to absorb these external jolts than we generally give our systems credit for. oOo Contact: L.F. Potts Ext. 2951 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 9, 1975 TREASURY ANNOUNCES MODIFICATION OF DUMPING FINDING ON PIG IRON FROM CANADA Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury James B. Clawson announced today a Modification of Dumping Finding on pig iron from Canada with respect to one company. Notice of this action will appear in the Federal Register of Monday, May 12, 1975. For the reasons stated in the "Notice of Tentative Determination to Modify or Revoke Dumping Finding" published on November 25, 1974, pig iron from Canada is no longer being, nor is likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value by the Quebec Iron and Titanium Corporation, Sorel, Quebec. Imports of the subject merchandise from Canada during CY 1974 were valued at approximately $32.6 million. DepartmentoftheTREASURY I WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 MEMORANDUM TO CORRESPONDENTS: May 9, 1975 Attached is a letter to the President of the Senate transmitting a draft bill to modernize and simplify the procedures of U . S . Customs Service. The proposal is in line with President Ford's recent initiatives toward alleviating the growing paperwork burden on American businessmen and in improving the quality of Federal agency service to the consumer. Also attached is a summary of the bill. Attachments WS-297 THE SECRETARY OF THE T R E A S U R Y WASHINGTON 20220 MAY 7 1975 Dear Mr. President: There is transmitted herewith a draft bill, "To modernize and simplify customs procedures, and for other purposes." The proposed bill is the first major piece of Customs modernization and simplification legislation designed to facilitate the clearance of merchandise and passengers through Customs in almost 20 years. Not since the Customs Simplification Acts of the 1950fs has the Congress been asked to focus on such measures in a comprehensive bill. In the past 18 years the number of persons processed by Customs has doubled, increasing from 129,002,691 (1956) to 259,618,811 (1974), and the number of formal entries of merchandise processed has tripled, from 1,073,990 to 3,206,000. As the Bicentennial Anniversary of this nation approaches, we anticipate that the number of international travelers to be served by Customs and the number of importations of a commercial and non-commercial nature will increase dramatically. As the oldest agency in the Government, the Bicentennial Anniversary has a special significance for the Customs Service because many of the practices and procedures that are applicable today can be traced back to the first Congress of the United States. Consequently, the Customs Service, in a technological age, is operating under some laws which reflect foreign commerce as it existed at the beginning of the 19th century. The specificity of certain of these antiquated laws prevents Customs from adopting modern business methods to cope with 20th century conditions and from efficiently and effectively utilizing its personnel. The proposed bill would amend various provisions of the Customs laws and certain navigation laws to permit the application of accepted, modern business techniques to the processing of passengers and imported merchandise and the collection of duties. In addition, the legislation contains proposals which would permit the simplification of many existing procedures and practices by introducing greater flexibility, into the law which will result in cost reductions and the more efficient deployment of existing personnel. 3f/ There are enclosed an analysis explaining the provisions of the draft bill and a comparative type showing the changes that would be made in existing law. It will be appreciated if you will lay the enclosed draft bill before the Senate. A similar proposal has been transmitted to the House of Representatives. The Department has been advised by the Office of Management and Budget that there is no objection to the submission of this proposed legislation to the Congress and that its enactment would be consistent with the Administration's program. Sincerely your^, William E. Simtof- The Honorable Nelson A. Rockefeller President of the Senate Washington, D. C. 20510 Enclosures - 3 yi 5 CUSTOMS MODERNIZATION AND SIMPLIFICATION ACT A. Background In 1799, the Congress enacted the first U. S. tariff law and customs procedure. Although business and international trade practices and patterns have undergone significant change in the nearly 200 years since then, many of the customs procedures have failed to keep apace and today still reflect the 19th Century. The last Customs simplification legislation was enacted in 1956. In that 20-year period, industry has turned to computerized assists to simplify operations, administration, and management. However, the law has not permitted the Customs Service to take advantage of these modern technological developments. Customs is a major business organization employing over 15,000 people. In 1974, 259,618,811 people and 3,206,000 formal entries were processed by the Customs Service, twice the number of people and three times the number of formal entries than were processed in 1956. Nevertheless, the Customs Service was unable to adopt modern business methods to cope with 20th Century conditions in handling passengers and merchandise or utilize personnel in an efficient and effective manner. B. Bill legislation attempts to remedy this situation by The The proposed building flexibility into the existing customs law to permit the Customs Service to adopt the technology of the 20th Century and modern business techniques. The legislation would permit the Customs Service to: (1) increase productivity of the Customs work force to meet the continuing demands of increased workload, (2) increase the response of the Customs Service to the needs of the importing community by instituting modern business procedures and methods in the merchandise processing and financial aspects of importing, and (3) insure compliance with customs laws through modern audit techniques so that more thorough and equitable application of such laws can be enforced in the protection of the revenue. The bill is divided into three major titles. Title I would permit Customs to institute up-to-date business methods and adopt accepted financial practices in conjunction with computerized techniques to the processing of importations. Key features of Title I are: (1) The procedure for entering merchandise would be modified to permit the filing of entries at places other than a customhouse, and within a time period to be established by the Secretary of the Treasury. (2) The duty collection procedure could be separated from the entry procedure which would permit Customs to implement an accounts receivable system keyed to importations occurring during a specified period. (3) A system akin to the Internal Revenue Service "returns" system could ultimately be established. (4) Improved verification procedures would be possible because the bill would require that importers keep books and records. (5) Customs officers would be given broader authority to question importers and inspect their books and records. (6) Sanctions would be strengthened to compel recalcitrant importers to testify and to permit inspection of books and records. Title II would simplify and update certain sections qf the customs law to facilitate the processing of international travelers and low value importations, and would introduce greater flexibility into the law where such flexibility would result in cost-saving efficiencies. Among the many amendments included are: (1) A flat rate of duty of 10 percent would apply to personal articles and gifts accompanying a person arriving in the United States. (2) The duty-free provision for gifts arriving by mail would be increased from $10 to $25; for personal or household articles accompanying a person not entitled to an exemption, from $10 to $25; for any other case, from $1 to $5. (3) Authority to sell forfeited liquor—under existing law it must be destroyed. (4) An increase in the informal entry limit from $250 to $500. (5) Authority to grant a limited exemption from trademark restrictions for merchandise accompanying persons arriving in the United States. yd. (6) Repeal of navigation fees and authority to charge a fee commensurate with the services rendered. (7) Expanded arrest authority for Customs officers. Title III would modernize the procedures for licensing and regulating customhouse brokers, which for 60 years would have been almost unchanged despite the dramatic changes that have occurred in the brokerage industry. Included are amendments which would: (1) Establish a nationwide licensing system. (2) Establish a permit system for multi-district operations. (3) Reduce the number of individually licensed brokers needed to qualify a corporation for a corporate brokers license. (4) Substitute an independent hearing examiner for the Customs officer who now conducts the hearing. (5) Introduce a monetary penalty as a disciplinary measure to be imposed when a violation warrants more than a reprimand but less than revocation of the license. (6) Permit imposition of a monetary penalty pursuant to a summary procedure, subject to court review. (7) Provide for insurance or a bond to protect clients of the broker against bankruptcies or defalcations. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Friday, May 9, 1975 9£ FOR INFORMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 COMMENTS OF THE COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY REGARDING PROPOSED NOISE EMISSION STANDARDS OF MEDIUM AND HEAVY TRUCKS Attached is a filing by the staff of the Council on Wage and Price Stability before the Environmental Protection Agency regarding proposed regulations to reduce medium and heavy truck noise from the current 86 decibels to 75 decibels by 1983. A copy of the technical attachment referred to in the text is available at the Council's Public Affairs Office, o 0 o Attachment CWPS-42 BEFORE THE E' ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY OFFICE OF NOISE ABATEMENT TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION FOR MEDIUM AND HEAVY DUTY TRUCKS DOCKET No. ONAC 74-1 COMMENTS OF THE COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY REGARDING PROPOSED NOISE EMISSION STANDARDS OF MEDIUM AND HEAVY- TRUCKS In its notice of October 15, 1974, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced proposed noise regulations for medium and heavy trucks. See 39 Federal Register 38338. That notice requested that comments on these proposed rules be submitted by December 16, 1974. The Council on Wage and Price Stability (the "Council") requests that EPA waive this filing date with respect to the following comments, which present the Council staff's independent analysis of the costs and benefits that would result from the proposed regulations. The staff of the Council has been informed by members of the EPA staff that EPA - 2 - has not to date taken final action on its proposal, and would be able to consider these comments. The proposed regulations require the noise emission levels of these trucks to be lowered in accordance with the following timetable: 83 dB(A) in 1977, 80 dB(A) in 1981, 75 dB(A) in 1983. The current noise emission level for these trucks is 86 dB(A). Considerable information has been received by the staff of the Council regarding the economic impact of these regulations. In addition to the EPA background document, we have examined information from the U.S. Department of 1/ Transportation (DOT) and General Motors (GM). The data that we have received reveal considerable discrepancies between estimates of both benefits and costs to be derived from the proposed regulations. The character of these discrepancies is delineated most sharply by the various estimates of the changes in heavy diesel truck prices that will result from the additional hardware necessary to achieve the proposed noise levels. DOT estimates the cost of this hardware 1/ For specific sources see the references included in Attachment I. IU at $1,075, the EPA estimate is $1,130, and the GM esti- 1/ mate is $4,450. Of particular concern to us is the relative lack of attention that has been paid to evaluating the benefits of what is certain to be an extremely costly regulation. In its background document to the proposed standards (pp. 6/1-40), EPA has measured benefits in terms of the number of people who will obtain annoyance relief from the reduced noise levels proposed in 3/ the regulationGeneral Motors, in its December 1974 response to the proposed standards (page VIII-3), has measured the benefits in terms of a reduction in the number of "impacted environmental situations" that will no longer be subjected to noise levels in excess of these same benchmarks. Comparing the costs of a 2/ We consider GM's estimate to be unrealistically high. In determining hardware costs, GM included in its sample truck models that represent only 47 percent 6f its heavy truck sales. One of the models included by GM in developing its estimates had a sales volume in 1974 of 447 units — only 3.2 percent of GM's diesel powered heavy truck sales. 3/ EPA has also offset against costs the fuel savm g s which are claimed to result from implementation of the regulations. - 4 - proposed regulation against the number of people who would no longer be annoyed if the regulation were promulgated is like comparing apples with oranges. Difficult though it may be, some way has to be found to determine the value that these people place upon their quieter environment- Only DOT has attempted to do this through a sponsored research project directed by Jon Nelson at The Pennsylvania State Uni- 1/ versity. We also discover major differences of opinion concerning the technological feasibility of attaining the noise levels proposed in the regulation. EPA 4/ Nelson used the changes in residential property value associated with changes in noise level as his measure Of the benefits of noise abatement. To obtain his estimates he used the impacted population data in the EPA background document (reference 7 in Attachment I). For the low estimate (used in our analysis) Nelson included only the marginally remaining impacted population as the noise level declined toward 7 5 dB(A). He then annualized the capitalized value of the property benefit per household to the year 2000 and arrived at the annual flow. This estimate of the capitalized benefit per household was obtained from a sample taken in the Washington, D.C. area which measured the covariation between differential levels of residential property values and differential levels of air or noise pollution. While we consider such estimates to be a rather slender reed upon which to base standard settings, they appear to be the best that are presently available. Certainly we consider their use to be more justified than the setting of such standards with no reference to the value of noise abatement to the affected population. For more specific details, see reference 4 in Attachment I. states in its Federal Register announcement that these levels can be attained using presently available technology. However, both DOT and GM have raised serious doubts about the validity of this contention. In particular, DOT reports that, in its "Quiet Truck Program," only one of the three contractors was able to 5/ attain the 75 dB(A) level. In view of these various discrepancies and conflicting assertions, we have performed our own benefit-cost analysis in order better to determine the extent to which these proposed regulations are econonomically justified. Details of this analysis appear in Attachment I. Our analysis incorporates data from all the sources submitted to us. We made every effort to give the proposed regulations the benefit of any doubt. Consequently, we believe that, if anything, we have understated the costs and overstated the benefits. As shown in Table I of Attachment I, we 5/ W.H. Close, Office of Noise Abatement, Department of Transportation, Testimony at Public Hearings of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Proposed Noise Emissions Standards for New Products — New Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks, p. (T. " - 6 - estimate that by the year 2000, EPA's proposed regulations, Scenario III, will generate total benefits of $46.5 billion and total costs of $44.5 billion. Discounting each benefit stream at 10 percent, the present value of benefits is $10.4 billion; the pressent value of costs, $8.4 billion; giving a ratio of discounted benefits to discounted costs of 1.246. It might appear from this analysis that the proposed regulations can be considered as economically justified. This is not the case. To see this, it must be realized that what EPA is proposing is, in fact, three separate regulations — 83 dB(A) by 1977, 80 dB(A) by 1981, and finally 75 dB (A) by 19 83.. Economists are quite familiar with the phenomenon of increasing marginal costs and decreasing marginal benefits as more resources are expended in a particular activity. For example, it should be expected that the benefits of reducing truck noise from its current level of 86 dB(A) to 83 dB(A) would be both more valuable to society and less expensive to achieve than would a further reduction from 83 dB(A) to 80 dB(A) and from 80 dB(A) to 75 dB(A). To highlight these all important marginal effects, we have broken the EPA proposal into three components. Scenario I assumes that a reduction of truck noise to 83 dB(A) is achieved by 1977 and that no reductions are achieved thereafter. In this scenario, total benefits by the year 2000 are $53.4 billion and total costs are $9.7 billion. Discounted benefits and costs are $11,5 billion and $2.25 billion respectively, for a discounted benefit-cost ratio of 5.11. As expected, this is considerably higher than the average discounted benefit-cost ratio of 1.245 in Scenario III. Scenario II assumes that both the 83 dB(A) and 80 dB(A) targets are achieved as scheduled. Total benefits achieved by the year 2000 under this scenario are $51.04 billion and total costs are $26.17 billion. Discounted benefits and costs are $11.15 billion and $5.38 billion respectively. The discounted benefitcost ratio is 2.073, less than half the ratio of Scenario I, but still more than twice the ratio of Scenario III. However, it is important to note what has happened to total benefits and costs between Scenario and Scenario II. Discounted benefits have actually - 8 - 6/ fallen by $.34 billion, while discounted costs have 7/ risen by $3.13 billion. Comparing Scenario II with Scenario III in which all three targets are met allows us to determine 6/ The apparent anomaly of discounted benefits actually dropping as the standard moves from 83 dB(A) to 80 dB(A) is accounted for by the fact that the improvement in fuel economy at 80 dB(A) as compared with the current 8 6 dB(A) level is actually less than the improvement in fuel economy at the 83 dB(A) level. We have followed DOT's procedure in treating improved fuel economy as a benefit. Alternatively, the reduction in improved fuel economy could have been treated as an increase in cost. If this had been done, discounted benefits would indeed have gone up, but discounted costs would have increased even more. The net change is not affected by the procedure. 7/ As discussed in more detail in Footnote 5 .of Attachment I, the marginal costs of going from the current 86 dB(A) level to 83 dB(A) may have been understated and the benefits, overstated. This is because if manufacturers knew that the 80 dB(A) level must be reached within a relatively short time after meeting the 83 dB(A) standard, they are likely to install clutch fans at the time they are trying to comply with the 83 dB(A) standards. The installation of clutch fans accounts for the primary fuel economy benefit which is the major source of benefits in moving from 86 dB(A) to 83 dB(A). Our scenarios assume that clutch fans will be installed in meeting the 83 dB(A) standard, although this installation likely would not be required to enable trucks to meet the standard. ^9 the marginal costs and benefits of going from 80 dB(A) to 75 dB(A). Discounted costs rise by $3.0 billion; discounted benefits fall by $0.71 billion. To conclude, we have little doubt that a move from 86 dB(A) to 83 dB(A) is economically justified- Al- though our analysis indicates that a further move to 80 dB(A) may not be justified, we believe the cost interdependencies referred to in Footnote 5 above may be such as to render this result suspect. We have no doubt, however, that the proposed eventual lowering of the standard to 75 dB(A) is economically unjustified based upon the evidence we have seen. We urge EPA to more carefully examine the costs and benefits of the proposed 80 dB(A) and 75 dB(A) standards. In particular, we believe that EPA should consider whether, in light of our analysis, either should be adopted. As we have already noted, we believe that the case for 80 dB(A) perhaps can be made. We are extremely suspicious that the 75 dB(A) target can be justified. Respectfully submitted, George C. Eads Assistant Director for Government Operations and Research Vaughn C. Williams General Counsel May 9, 1975 SIMON ANNOUNCES MEETING OF U.S.-ISRAELI JOINT COMMITTEE Treasury Secretary William E. Simon announced today that the U.S.-Israeli Joint Committee for Investment and Trade will meet in Washington, May 12-13. The Joint Committee, which was established during Secretary Simon's visit to Israel in July 1974, is co-chaired by Secretary Simon and Israel's Minister of Finance, Yehoshua Rabinowitz. "These meetings," Simon said, "are an important part of continuing U.S. efforts to create a constructive economic climate in the Middle East which would facilitate U.S. relations with countries of the area. "During the meetings we will continue negotiations towards a new tax treaty and discuss means of expanding mutually beneficial trade and investment ties between the U.S. and Israel," Simon added. Specialized joint subcommittees on a broad range of economic issues, including capital investment, trade, raw materials and industrial research and development, held a series of meetings last fall in preparation for the ministerial-level meetings. The U.S. delegation is made up of senior representatives from the Departments of State, Treasury, Commerce, Export-Import Bank, OPIC, and other U.S. Government agencies. The Israeli delegation includes senior economic officials from the Israeli Embassy in the United States and the Ministries of Finance and Commerce and Industry in Israel. -0O0- WS-298 ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE BUSINESS COUNCIL HOT SPRINGS, VIRGINIA MAY 10, 1975 I WELCOME THIS OPPORTUNITY TO MEET AGAIN WITH OLD FRIENDS AND TO TALK WITH YOU ABOUT A SUBJECT OF CONSUMING INTEREST TO US ALL: THE FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR OUR ECONOMY, FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, ECONOMIC POLICY MAKERS IN WASHINGTON HAVE BEEN PREOCCUPIED WITH THE PROBLEMS OF ENDING THE RECESSION AND SLOWING THE RATE OF INFLATION. H IS FAIRLY APPARENT NOW THAT WE ARE COMING TOWARD THE END OF THE DOWNWARD SLIDE. PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 75 PERCENT OF THE RECESSION IS ALREADY BEHIND US. I NEED NOT BURDEN YOU WITH ALL OF THE STATISTICS, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS ~ THE INCREASE IN OVERALL EMPLOYMENT REPORTED LAST WEEK, THE RAPID LIQUIDATION OF INVENTORIES, THE INCREASE IN RETAIL - 2SALES OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS, THE SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN INFLATION RATES, THE FLOW OF MONEY BACK INTO THE THRIFT INSTITUTIONS, AND OTHERS — YOU CAN FIND CLEAR AND CONVINCING EVIDENCE THAT THE RECESSION IS BOTTOMING OUT. I BELIEVE IT IS A FAIRLY UNANIMOUS VIEW THAT WE WILL BE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. AS WE EMERGE FROM THE RECESSION, IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT WE NOW BEGIN TO CHANGE FOCUS ~ THAT WE BEGIN TO TAKE A LONGER VIEW OF OUR ECONOMIC FUTURE AND DIRECT GREATER PUBLIC ATTENTION TO OUR MORE FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS. WHILE THE PROCESS OF RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO REQUIRE CAREFUL AND VIGILANT MANAGEMENT, WE MUST DETERMINE NOW WHETHER THE PERIOD OF RECOVERY AND BEYOND WILL BRING DURABLE ECONOMIC PROGRESS OR A SORROWFUL REPETITION OF THE BOOM AND BUST CYCLES OF THE PAST. -3, 3ft IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT WE PUT THE ECONOMY ON A LONG-TERM COURSE THAT IS SUSTAINABLE BOTH POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY. » WE MUST FINALLY BREAK THE HABIT OF RESORTING TO SHORT-TERM PALLIATIVES — PALLIATIVES THAT GIVE US AN ILLUSORY SENSE OF PROSPERITY AT THE EXPENSE OF LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO OUR ECONOMY ~ AND INSTEAD TAKE THOSE STEPS WHICH WILL CORRECT THE DEEP-SEATED IMBALANCES IN OUR ECONOMY AND OVERCOME THE SCOURGE OF INFLATION. WlTH BOTH THE RECESSION AND INFLATION NOW RECEDING, WE FINALLY HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO SHAPE OUR POLICIES TO MEET OUR LONG-TERM NEEDS. IT WOULD BE A TRAGIC MISTAKE TO PASS IT BY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT WILL BE UP TO ALL OF US HERE AT THIS CONFERENCE TO LEAD THE WAY, BECAUSE IF WE DON'T WHO WILL? RESPONSIBLE FTSCAI AND MONETARY POLICIES MY MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN — AND ONE THAT I HAVE EXPRESSED ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS — IS THAT WE WILL BECOME OVERLY IMPATIENT - i* WITH THE PACE OF RECOVERY AND ENORMOUS POLITICAL PRESSURES WILL BE GENERATED TO SPEED IT UP THROUGH HIGHLY STIMULATIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES, INCREASINGLY, WE HEAR IN THE CONGRESS AND ELSEWHERE THAT AS OUR FIRST PRIORITY, WE SHOULD END THE RECESSION AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AND THAT WE SHOULD IGNORE THE INFLATIONARY CONSEQUENCES UNTIL NEXT YEAR OR BEYOND. I AGREE WITH THE DESIRE TO END THE RECESSION QUICKLY BUT I STRONGLY DISAGREE THAT WE SHOULD IGNORE THE INFLATIONARY CONSEQUENCES BECAUSE THOSE ARE PRECISELY THE WRONG-HEADED POLICIES THAT LED US INTO THIS THICKET. CLEARLY, WE NEED A LARGER THAN NORMAL FEDERAL DEFICIT NOW IN ORDER TO SUPPORT THE FORCES OF RECOVERY, BUT TIMING IS EQUALLY CRITICAL. SINCE MOST FEDERAL PROGRAMS TAKE A YEAR TO 18 MONTHS TO BEGIN PUMPING STIMULUS INTO THE ECONOMY, WE SHOULD NOT ENACT STIMULATIVE MEASURES THAT WILL IMPACT UPON THE ECONOMY AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE MOVING TOWARD FULL CAPACITY. -»- E7 AFTER CONTINUAL REPETITION, I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION AND MANY BUSINESS LEADERS ARE BEGINNING TO GET THROUGH TO MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AND TO THE PUBLIC THAT FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICITS OF $80 TO $100 BILLION COULD BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. PEOPLE ARE WAKING UP TO THE FACT THAT HUGE DEFICITS COULD TOUCH OFF ANOTHER EXPLOSION IN PRICES AND THEN ULTIMATELY LEAD TO ANOTHER RECESSION. AND EVEN HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT. THE PROBLEMS THAT LARGE SCALE FEDERAL DEFICITS WOULD GENERATE IN OUR CAPITAL MARKETS DURING A RECOVERY PERIOD ARE PERHAPS MORE DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND, BUT I'M BEGINNING TO SENSE A GREATER APPECIATION OF THAT AS WELL. I HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY HEARTENED BY THE GROWING AWARENESS IN CONGRESS OF THESE DANGERS AND BY THE INITIAL CONGRESSIONAL. EFFORTS TO IMPOSE CEILINGS ON THE FEDERAL DEFICITS. WHILE THE CEILINGS THAT WERE VOTED ARE HIGHER THAN WE BELIEVE TO BE PRUDENT, THEY NEVERTHELESS REPRESENT A POSITIVE STEP FORWARD AND WE REMAIN HOPEFUL THAT GROWING CONGRESSIONAL SENTIMENT AGAINST IRRESPONSIBLE DEFICITS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOUND POLICIES FOR THE FUTURE. - 6LAST WEEK ARTHUR BURNS MADE ANOTHER VALUABLE CONTRIBUTION TO OUR ECONOMIC DIALOGUE WHEN HE-ANNOUNCED MONETARY GROWTH TARGETS OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7.5 PERCENT FOR THE YEAR ENDING NEXT MARCH. WITH GROWTH TARGETS NOW OUT IN THE OPEN, I WOULD HOPE THAT WE CAN MORE EASILY DRIVE HOME THE MESSAGE THAT EXCESSIVE MONETARY POLICIES — POLICIES ON THE UPPER END OF THOSE TARGETS ~ ALSO CARRY A HIGH RISK OF IGNITING A NEW ROUND OF INFLATION. LET US RECOGNIZE AS WELL THAT MONETARY POLICY DOES NOT OPERATE IN A VACUUM. HUGE BUDGET DEFICITS COULD PRESENT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WITH THE EXCRUCIATING ALTERNATIVES OF EITHER ABANDONING THEIR MONETARY GROWTH TARGETS OR ALLOWING A CREDIT CRUNCH WHEN PRIVATE LOAN DEMAND STARTS TO SWELL. THUS, IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE DURABLE GROWTH, IT IS ESSENTIAL « THAT WE PURSUE BALANCED, RESPONSIBLE POLICIES ON BOTH THE FISCAL AND MONETARY SIDE. 7 ~~ 3 f T CAPITAL INVESTMENT — THE GREAT CHALLENGE AHEAD AS WE DEBATE FISCAL AND MONETARY QUESTIONS IN COMING MONTHS, THERE IS ANOTHER SUBJECT WHICH I HOPE THAT ALL OF YOU HERE WILL HELP TO KEEP AT THE FOREFRONT OF PUBLIC CONCERN, FOR IT IS PERHAPS EVEN MORE CRUCIAL TO OUR LONG RANGE HOPES. IT IS AN ECONOMIC FACT OF LIFE THAT INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY IS THE ONLY WAY TO INCREASE OUR STANDARD OF LIVING, AND YET IN RECENT YEARS THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT ADEQUATELY MET THE CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS THAT ARE NECESSARY TO SUPPORT STEADY INCREASES IN PRODUCTIVITY. THE NEED FOR GREATER CAPITAL INVESTMENT HAS NOW BECOME ONE OF OUR MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGES FOR THE COMING DECADE. HISTORY WILL ULTIMATELY JUDGE US, I BELIEVE, NOT ON OUR SUCCESS IN DEALING WITH SHORT-TERM PROBLEMS SUCH AS RECESSION BUT IN MEETING THE LONG-RANGE GOALS OF GREATER SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT AS WELL AS ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES. TH IS MATTER IS OF SUCH OVERRIDING CONCERN THAT I WOULD LIKE TO DEVOTE THE REST OF MY REMARKS TO IT HERE THIS MORNING. - 8THE BEGINNING POINT FOR OUR CONSIDERATION OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT — AND ONE THAT SHOULD BE OF KEEN INTEREST HERE ~ t IS THE PATTERN OF ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE DECADE OF THE 1960s, THE AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THAT PERIOD FOR THE TWENTY NATIONS BELONGING TO THE ORGANIZATION OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD) RANGED FROM A HIGH OF 11,1 PERCENT FOR JAPAN, TO A MEDIAN OF ABOUT 5 PERCENT FOR AUSTRALIA, THE NETHERLANDS AND NORWAY/ TO A LOW OF 2.8 PERCENT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM. THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS TIME EXPERIENCED AN AVERAGE GROWTH RATE OF 4 PERCENT A YEAR — 17TH AMONG THE 20 NATIONS. ECONOMISTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FACTORS AFFECTING GROWTH INCLUDE: (1) THE ACCUMULATED BASE OF CAPITAL GOODS; (2) THE CURRENT PACE OF NEW CAPITAL INVESTMENTS; (3) THE EFFECTIVE APPLICATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY; W THE QUALITY OF THE NATIONAL LABOR FORCE ~ ITS EDUCATION, TRAINING, DISCIPLINE -.- 3 f f AND COMMITMENT; (5) THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, FINANCIAL AND SERVICE FACILITIES; (6) ACCESS TO INDUSTRIAL RAW MATERIALS; (7) MANAGERIAL SKILLS; AND (8) THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM. THE MIX OF THESE BASIC ECONOMIC VARIABLES VARIES FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY AND CHANGES OVER TIME. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO SUBSTITUTE ONE, OR A COMBINATION, OF THESE PRODUCTIVITY VARIABLES FOR SPECIFIC INADEQUACIES. HOWEVER, IT IS CLEAR THAT A STRONG RATE OF NEW CAPITAL INVESTMENT IS REQUIRED TO GENERATE SUSTAINED GROWTH. IN FACT, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ALL OF THE OTHER FACTORS THAT DETERMINE PRODUCTIVITY ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF CAPITAL GOODS MADE AVAILABLE BY NEW INVESTMENT. FOR MANY YEARS OUR ADVANTAGEOUS RATIO OF CAPITAL TO LABOR HAS BEEN ACKNOWLEDGED AS THE BASIS OF THE REMARKABLE RISE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. B U T EVEN THOUGH PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FUTURE AS THE ECONOMY GROWS, IT IS UNREALISTIC TO ASSUME THAT THE HISTORICAL PATTERNS OF INVESTMENT - 1U AND PRODUCTIVITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MEET THE PRIORITIES OF THE FUTURE. AND I CERTAINLY AM NOT SUGGESTING THAT WE CAN FULFILL EVERY CLAIM PRESENTED BY SOCIETY. THE DISAPPOINTING RECORD OF FEDERAL DEFICITS IN FOURTEEN OF THE LAST FIFTEEN YEARS ENDING WITH FY 1975 ~ OR FORTY OUT OF THE LAST FORTY-EIGHT YEARS — AND THE UNFORTUNATE BOOM AND BUST PATTERN OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST DECADE INDICATE THAT WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY IDENTIFY AND MANAGE OUR NATIONAL ECONOMIC PRIORITIES. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE UNITED STATES AND OUR CAPITAL"TO-LABOR RATIO IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH, OTHER NATIONS DURING RECENT YEARS HAVE ALLOCATED A SUBSTANTIALLY LARGER SHARE OF THEIR RESOURCES TO NEW CAPITAL FORMATION. FURTHERMORE, THE GAP BETWEEN THE U.S. LEVEL OF INVESTMENT, MEASURED AS A SHARE OF NATIONAL OUTPUT, AND THE COMMITMENTS OF OTHER LEADING INDUSTRIAL NATIONS HAS INCREASED. TOTAL U.S. FIXED INVESTMENT AS A SHARE Q ^l1 11 OF NATIONAL OUTPUT DURING THE TIME PERIOD 1960 THROUGH 1973 WAS 17.5 PERCENT. THE U.S. FIGURE RANKS LAST AMONG A GROUP OF ELEVEN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL NATIONS; OUR INVESTMENT RATE WAS 7.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS BELOW THE AVERAGE COMMITMENT OF THE < •• ENTIRE GROUP. ECONOMISTS OFTEN POINT OUT THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR OUR POOR PERFORMANCE IN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND, IN THEIR VIEW, CAST IT IN A MORE FAVORABLE LIGHT. . FOR EXAMPLE, BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE SIZE OF OUR ECONOMY AND OUR RELATIVELY ADVANCED STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, THEY SAY IT IS ONLY TO BE EXPECTED THAT OUR RATE OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH MIGHT BE LOWER THAN OTHER COUNTRIES. A RELATIVELY LARGER SHARE OF OUR INVESTMENT MUST ALSO BE USED FOR REPLACEMENT AND MODERNIZATION OF EXISTING FACILITIES. WHILE THIS PROCESS DOES NOT NECESSARILY INCREASE THE PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY OF OUR ECONOMY, - 12 IT DOES PROVIDE A CONTINUING OPPORTUNITY TO INTRODUCE NEW TECHNOLOGY IN THE U.S. ECONOMIC SYSTEM. IN MY EXPERIENCE, THERE HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER FACTORS THAT HAVE BEEN EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE TWO I HAVE MENTIONED IN INFLUENCING OUR INVESTMENT PATTERNS — NAMELY, THE STRONG ORIENTATION WITHIN OUR SOCIETY TOWARD PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND TOWARD GOVERNMENT SPENDING. THE EMPHASIS ON CONSUMER SPENDING HAS UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSED MUCH OF THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF OUR ECONOMY BECAUSE IT HAS CREATED A STRONG DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES NEEDED TO SUSTAIN OUTPUT, EMPLOYMENT AND INVESTMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, IT HAS ALSO LED TO A LOWER ACCUMULATION OF GROSS SAVINGS FLOWS THAN IN OTHER COUNTRIES. AS TO THE IMPACT OF THE GOVERNMENT, IT IS CLEAR THAT HIGH LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING HAVE DIVERTED FUNDS AWAY FROM PRIVATE INVESTMENT. GOVERNMENT SPENDING AT ALL LEVELS NOW REPRESENTS APPROXIMATELY ONE-THIRD OF OUR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, AND IF RECENT TRENDS PREVAIL, IT COULD RISE AS HIGH AS 60 PERCENT BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. SUCH HEAVY GOVERNMENTAL DOMINATION WOULD NOT ONLY FRUSTRATE OUR HOPES FOR FUTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT BUT IT WOULD ALSO SEVERELY JEOPARDIZE OUR ECONOMIC AND PERSONAL FREEDOMS. WHILE THESE VARIOUS MODERATING FACTORS MAY HELP TO EXPLAIN WHY THE U.S. RECORD OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN LOWER THAN OTHER MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS, THEY DO NOT, IN MY VIEW, CONTRADICT THE CONCLUSION THAT OUR INVESTMENT LEVELS HAVE BEEN INADEQUATE. EXPERIENCE HAS AMPLY DEMONSTRATED THAT OUR INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEMS OF TODAY HAVE BEEN CREATED IN PART BY CAPACITY SHORTAGES, ESPECIALLY THE STRAINS THAT DEVELOPED IN EARLY 1974 IN ENERGY AND RAW MATERIALS. THE CONTINUOUS DETERIORATION OF OUR INTERNATIONAL TRADE BALANCE DURING THE 1960S, WHEN THE DOLLAR WAS OVERVALUED, WAS ALSO AT LEAST PARTLY THE RESULT OF THE LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS -14 FOR U.S. PRODUCTS AND INCREASED RELIANCE ON FOREIGN SOURCES OF GOODS. WE SHOULD ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT THE COSTS OF CAPITAL AND ITS AVAILABILITY FOR PRIVATE SECTOR NEEDS ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE FISCAL AND MONETARY ACTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT. WHILE THE FINANCIAL MARKETS REMAIN VERY RESILIENT AND RESPONSIVE TO CHANGING CREDIT AND EQUITY NEEDS, THEY HAVE NOT BEEN IMMUNE TO THE DISRUPTIVE AND INFLATIONARY IMPACT OF GOVERNMENTAL POLICIES. A SLOW RATE OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME CAN ALSO CAST A LONG SHADOW OVER A NATION'S ECONOMIC FUTURE. AS SHOWN BY A NUMBER OF STUDIES, THERE IS A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND VARIOUS MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY. A DYNAMIC ECONOMY IS NEEDED TO CREATE JOBS BY APPLYING NEW TECHNOLOGY AND EXPANDED PRODUCTION CAPACITY. A PRODUCTIVE LABOR FORCE IS ALSO NECESSARY FOR PRODUCING GOODS AND SERVICES TO MEET - 15 - Is ('• ' RISING DEMANDS FOR AN IMPROVED STANDARD OF LIVING AS A MEANS OF HOLDING DOWN INFLATION. IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT THE UNITED STATES — WITH ONE OF THE WORST RATES OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT AMONG WESTERN NATIONS ~ HAS ALSO HAD ONE OF THE POOREST RECORDS IN PRODUCTIVITY GAINS. DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1960 THROUGH 1973, PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AVERAGED 10.5 PERCENT A YEAR IN JAPAN, APPROXIMATELY 6 PERCENT IN FRANCE AND WEST GERMANY, 4 PERCENT IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, AND HERE IN THE UNITED STATES -- THE ECONOMIC . LEADER OF THE WORLD — ONLY 3.3 PERCENT. FUTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS LET'S TURN NOW FROM THE INVESTMENT NEEDS OF THE PAST TO THOSE OF THE FUTURE. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT, BUT ESTIMATING FUTURE CAPITAL NEEDS IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BECAUSE COSTS AND PRIORITIES CONTINUE TO CHANGE RAPIDLY. IT IS OBVIOUS, HOWEVER, THAT FUTURE CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS - 16 WILL BE ENORMOUS ~ LARGER THAN ANYTHING WE HAVE EVER FACED BEFORE. CLEARLY WE WILL NEED TO INCREASE THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF HOUSING; DEVELOP NEW ENERGY RESOURCES; IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF OUR ENVIRONMENT; REHABILITATE THE EXISTING TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AND DEVELOP A BETTER URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM; CONTINUE THE MECHANIZATION OF AGRICULTURE; CONSTRUCT NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS, COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS, MEDICAL FACILITIES, SCHOOLS AND OTHER FACILITIES; AND MEET THE MASSIVE NEEDS FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT. IN ALL OF THESE SECTORS WE MUST NOT ONLY REPLACE AND MODERNIZE EXISTING FACILITIES BUT ALSO ADD NEW CAPACITY, PARTICULARLY IN MANY OF OUR MOST BASIC INDUSTRIES, THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ESTIMATES THAT CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT AND NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES WILL TOTAL $3.4 TRILLION DURING THE 1974 TO 1985 PERIOD. IF ANNUAL OUTLAYS FOR RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, WHICH HAVE AVERAGED $50 BILLION DURING THE PAST FOUR YEARS, ARE ADDED TO THIS FIGURE, THE TOTAL CAPITAL NEEDS RISE TO WELL OVER $4 TRILLION. L/6% - 17 A SIMILAR STUDY PERFORMED BY THE GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY CONFIRMS THE MASSIVE SIZE OF FUTURE CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS. ASSUMING A REAL GNP GROWTH RATE OF 4 PERCENT AND AN INFLATION RATE OF 5 PERCENT, GENERAL ELECTRIC EXPECTS GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, INCLUDING RESIDENTIAL HOUSING, TO TOTAL $4-1/2 TRILLION OVER THE 1974 TO 1985 TIME PERIOD. BOTH ESTIMATES ARE LIMITED TO PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND EXCLUDE THE LARGE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES REQUIRED FOR ROADS, DAMS, GOVERNMENT FACILITIES, SCHOOLS, POLLUTION ABATEMENT OUTLAYS, AND MANY OTHER PROJECTS. ASSUMING, THEN, THAT THE CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT NEEDS BETWEEN 1974 AND 1985 WILL RANGE FROM $4 TO $4-1/2 TRILLION, THE POINT TO REMEMBER IS THIS: OVER THE MOST RECENT PERIOD OF THE SAME LENGTH, 1962 THROUGH 1973, OUT TOTAL OUTLAYS FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES WERE $1-1/2 TRILLION. THUS, OUR CAPITAL INVESTMENT NEEDS IN COMING YEARS WILL BE - 18 APPROXIMATELY THREE TIMES THE LEVEL OF THE RECENT PAST. IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRY ALONE, OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT OUR NEEDS WILL TOTAL ABOUT $1 TRILLION, STATED IN CURRENT DOLLARS TO INCLUDE THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION. THE REQUIREMENT THAT WE TRIPLE OUR OVERALL INVESTMENT LEVELS IS PERHAPS THE BEST MEASURE OF OUR CHALLENGE AHEAD. GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT WHILE OUR ECONOMY IS CAPABLE OF FINANCING ITS LARGE PRIVATE CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS, OUR SUCCESS IN MEETING THAI GOAL WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE SHAPE OF GOVERNMENT POLI:IES. IT IS ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE THAT GOVERNMENT POLICIES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE. A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE FISCAL AND MONETARY DISTORTIONS OF THE PAST DECADE WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY PRESENT THE ACHIEVEMENT OF OUR BASIC GOALS. INFLATION MUST BE (ONTROLLED, AND THE GOVERNMENT MUST AVOID DISRUPTING THE CAPITAL MARKETS AS IT HAS IN THE PAST. IN FACT, PUBLIC i9 - 19 - ' U i OFFICIALS MUST BALANCE THE FEDERAL BUDGET OVER TIME AND RECORD OCCASIONAL SURPLUSES IN ORDER TO FREE UP CAPITAL RESOURCES TO FULFILL EXISTING PRIVATE INVESTMENT CLAIMS. FUTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT CLEARLY INDICATE THAT FEDERAL TAX POLICIES SHOULD BE EXTENSIVELY REVIEWED. JUST SUCH A REVIEW HAS BEEN UNDERWAY IN THE DEPARMENT OF THE TREASURY IN PREPARING FOR THE TAX LAW CHANGES COMPLETED LAST MONTH AND IN ANTICIPATION DURING COMING MONTHS OF A JOINT REVIEW WITH THE CONGRESS OF POSSIBLE TAX REFORM INITIATIVES. I DO NOT WANT TO SUGGEST ANY SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS THIS MORNING BECAUSE WE ARE STILL WORKING ON OUR ANALYSIS. I WILL MERELY REFER TO SOME OF THE POLICY AREAS THAT NEED TO BE REVIEWED: 1, CORPORATE INCOME TAX — CORPORATE INCOME TAXES DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE CASH FLOW AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT. RATE HAS VACILLATED SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR BELOW THE 50 PERCENT THE - 20 LEVEL FOR MANY YEARS. WHILE A REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF TAXATION WOULD PROBABLY BE THE MOST STRAIGHT-FORWARD APPROACH TO ENHANCING INVESTMENT INCENTIVES, ANY CHANGE WOULD REPRESENT A MAJOR SHIFT IN POLICY AND WOULD REQUIRE EXTENSIVE CONGRESSIONAL CONSIDERATION. AS PART OF THIS ON-GOING REVIEW OF TAX POLICIES WE NEED TO CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE ON INVESTMENT OF OUR TWO~TIER SYSTEM OF CORPORATE TAXATION IN WHICH INCOME IS TAXED ONCE AT THE CORPORATE LEVEL AND AGAIN AT THE SHAREHOLDER LEVEL. THIS APPROACH DISCRIMINATES AGAINST CORPORATE INVESTORS GENERALLY AND SMALL EQUITY INVESTORS PARTICULARLY. WE SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR SYSTEM OF TAXATION BEARS MORE HEAVILY ON CORPORATIONS THAN DO THE TAX SYSTEMS OF ALMOST EVERY OTHER MAJOR INDUSTRIAL NATION. IN THE LAST FEW YEARS OUR MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS HAVE LARGELY ELIMINATED THE CLASSICAL TWO-TIER SYSTEM OF CORPORATE TAXATION. THROUGH A VARIETY OF MECHANISMS ^ 6S u - 21 - THEY HAVE ADOPTED SYSTEMS OF "INTEGRATING" THE PERSONAL AND INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES SO THAT THE DOUBLE TAXATION ELEMENT IS RADICALLY LESSENED. 2. INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT (ITC) — BUSINESS FIRMS HAVE STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT AS A MAJOR STIMULUS TO ADDITIONAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND THE TAX REDUCTION ACT OF 1975 WHICH INCREASED THE CREDIT TO 10 PERCENT FOR TWO YEARS AND REMOVED THE LOWER PERCENTAGE LIMITATION FOR UTILITIES. UNFORTUNATELY, THE INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT HAS HAD AN UNCERTAIN STATUS SINCE IT WAS INITIATED JANUARY 1, 1962 AND BUSINESSMEN ARE JUSTIFIABLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE STABILITY OF AN INCENTIVE WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN REMOVED TWICE AND THEN REINSTATED. 3. DEPRECIATION GUIDELINES — THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL RECOVERY CHARGES PERMITTED FOR TAX PURPOSES ALSO INFLUENCES THE AFTER-TAX EARNINGS AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE INVESTMENT. IN 1954 THE INTERNAL REVENUE TAX CODE WAS CHANGED TO PERMIT DEPRECIATION CHARGES TO BE MADE ON AN ACCELERATED BASIS. - 22 THE OFFICIAL GUIDELINES WERE AGAIN LIBERALIZED IN 1962. AND IN 1971 THE ASSET DEPRECIATION RANGE (ANR) — ALONG WITH THE INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT ~ WAS ADDED TO THE REGULATIONS. DESPITE THESE ADJUSTMENTS. AMERICAN BUSINESSES COMPLAIN WITH GOOD REASON THAT THEY HAVE A COMPETITIVE DISADVANTAGE COMPARED WITH SOME OTHER NATIONS. VARIOUS BUSINESS GROUPS HAVE PROPOSED FURTHER LIBERALIZATION, SUCH AS A WIDER ADR PERCENTAGE, BUT FURTHER CONSIDERATION SHOULD BE PART OF THE GENERAL TAX REFORM ANALYSIS INVOLVING THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND THE CONGRESS. 4. SPECIAL INCENTIVFS — THE GOVERNMENT IS FREQUENTLY ASKED TO PROVIDE SPECIAL INCENTIVES IN THE FORM OF REDUCED OR DELAYED TAXES, ACCELERATED DEPRECIATION SCHEpULES, CAPITAL GRANTS OR OTHER BENEFITS TO ENHANCE THE RATE OF RETURN ON CAPITAL INVESTMENTS. WHILE SUCH INCENTIVES ARE FREQUENTLY REOUESTED DN THE BASIS THAT THEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ACHIEVEMENT EC - 23 OF SOME NATIONAL PRIORITY, IT IS USUALLY DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SUCH SPECIAL TREATMENT. WHEN SPECIAL ADVANTAGES ARE GIVEN TO A SPECIFIC INDUSTRY OR GEOGRAPHICAL REGION, OTHERS BECOME RELATIVELY DISADVANTAGED AND IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR GOVERNMENT AUTHORITIES TO DETERMINE WHICH CLAIMS SHOULD.BE FAVORED, PARTICULARLY IN A DYNAMIC ECONOMY WHERE PRIORITIES CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SPECIFIC SITUATIONS WHERE THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD INTERVENE IN THE ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES WHICH IS NOW HANDLED EFFICIENTLY BY THE PRIVATE MARKETS, MY OVERWHELMING PREFERENCE IS TO AVOID THE ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS WHICH ARE FOUND TO OCCUR. CORPORATF PROFITARII TTY THE FINAL AREA OF CONCERN THAT I WANT TO ADDRESS HERE IS THE FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR CORPORATE PROFITABILITY. SUCH PROFITS ARE, OF COURSE, _____ MAJOR INCENTIVE FOR ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT AND AN IMPORTANT SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR FINANCING OUTLAYS, ALONG WITH VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES. - 24 UNFORTUNATELY, CORPORATE PROFITS ARE TOO OFTEN THOUGHT t OF AS AN UNNECESSARY CLAIM REQUIRED BY GREEDY BUSINESSMEN RATHER THAN THE BASIC INCENTIVE IN OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEM. ACTUAL EARNINGS OF BUSINESS FIRMS ARE FAR BELOW WHAT THE GENERAL PUBLIC — AND SOME MEMBERS OF CONGRESS — PERCEIVE THEM TO BE. IN FACT, CORPORATE PROFITS WILL HAVE TO IMPROVE SUBSTANTIALLY IN ORDER TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INCENTIVES AND TO MAKE THE NECESSARY CONTRIBUTION TO FUTURE INVESTMENT OUTLAYS. MY CONCERN IS THAT THE NEGATIVE ATTITUDES ABOUT PROFITS HELD BY MANY AMERICANS MIGHT BECOME AN UNFORTUNATE PART OF PUBLIC POLICY. WE MUST AVOID LEGISLATION AND REGULATION THAT IS PUNITIVE OF PROFITS HONESTLY EARNED. THE RESULT COULD ONLY BE THAT CAPITAL FORMATION WOULD BE -INHIBITED, AND THE REAL PURCHASING POWER OF WAGE EARNERS WOULD RISE MORE SLOWLY. WE MUST ALWAYS BE ALERT TO THE FACT THAT PROFITS TRANSLATE INTO JOBS, HIGHER WAGES, AND AN INCREASED STANDARD OF LIVING FOR ALL OF OUR PEOPLE. - 25 CONCLUSION STANDING BACK FOR A MOMENT, WHAT, THEN DO WE SEE;? — A NATION THAT IS STILL INCREDIBLY STRONG, POWERED BY THE LARGEST AND MOST DYNAMIC ECONOMY IN THE WORLD; — BUT A NATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO SUFFER ECONOMICALLY BECAUSE IT IS DIVERTING SO MANY OF ITS RESOURCES INTO NONPRODUCTIVE USES AND SO FEW INTO INCREASING ITS OWN PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY AND CREATING NEW JOBS FOR ITS PEOPLE; — AND A NATION WHOSE FUTURE GROWTH AND PROSPERITY WILL REQUIRE IT TO TRIPLE ITS LEVEL OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT. SOME OBSERVERS HAVE CONCLUDED THAT IT WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE TO MEET OUR FUTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT NEEDS. I DISAGREE. WITH AN ECONOMY AS POWERFUL AS OURS AND WITH OUR TRADITION OF SOUND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT WE ARE CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING OUR BASIC INVESTMENT GOALS. - 26 I ALSO BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT WE HAVE OUR WORK CUT OUT FOR us. OUR INVESTMENT NEEDS REPRESENT ONE OF THE MOST FORMIDABLE ECONOMIC CHALLENGES OF OUR LIFETIME. TWO DAYS AGO, I TESTIFIED BEFORE THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE ON THESE NEEDS, MAKING MANY OF THE SAME POINTS THAT I HAVE STATED HERE, AND I FOUND THERE AS I HAVE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN THIS CONGRESS A DEGREE OF AWARENESS AND APPRECIATION FOR OUR CAPITAL INVESTMENT NEEDS THAT MIGHT SURPRISE MANY OF YOU. YET IT IS EQUALLY CLEAR THAT THE INCENTIVES THAT MUST EXIST FOR THE BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL COMMUNITIES TO RESPOND TO THIS CHALLENGE WILLNOT BE UNILATERALLY CREATED IN THE HALLOWED CHAMBERS OF OUR CONGRESS. THE MANTLE OF RESPONSIBILITY IN OUR FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM STILL RESTS WHERE IT BELONGS ~ ON THE SHOULDERS OF MEN LIKE US. IN THE RECENT PAST, AMERICA HAS SUFFERED MORE THAN ITS SHARE OF DEFEATS. SOME OF THEM WERE PERHAPS EXPECTED, OTHERS -27- f^/fif WERE NOT. IT TROUBLES ME DEEPLY, HOWEVER, THAT SOME OF OUR GOALS WERE GIVEN UP WITH SO LITTLE PUBLIC CONCERN. THAT MUST NOT BE THE CASE IN OUR EFFORT TO ACHIEVE GREATER ECONOMIC GROWTH. WHAT IS AT STAKE IS NOT SIMPLY OUR STANDARD OF LIVING BUT OUR WHOLE ECONOMIC SYSTEM, AND INDEED, A VERY LARGE MEASURE OF OUR FREEDOM. SURELY, THAT EFFORT DEMANDS OUR UNFLINCHING SUPPORT. THANK YOU. # if # # 0 i .1 AGREED STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS ^ — — m — m — m m — ^ — m m m m m ^ i m — ~ — — — m — — m — ~ — — > The Joint US-USSR Commercial Commission, meeting in Moscow for its fifth annual session, has completed a wideranging review of trade issues and has renewed the determination of both governments to remove the barriers which prevent full development of trade between them. ,* • -During the two days in which the Commission was meeting, the leader of the U.S. delegation. Treasury Secretary William E. Simon and- Acting Commerce Secretary John K. Tabor were received by Leonid Brezhnev, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR. The leader of the Soviet delega- tion. Minister N. S. Paiolichev, took part in the meeting. Both parties in the commission meetings expressed their regret that it has not yet been possible to bring into force the 1972 Trade Agreement, complicating efforts to strengthen their trade and economic relationships. The Soviet Section, under the chairmanship of Mr. N. S. Patolichev, Minister of Foreign Trade of the USSR, stressed that maximum development of trade would depend upon the normalization of trade and financial relations. The U.S. Section affirmed the determina- tion of the U.S. Administration to work with the American Congress in obtaining enactment of legislation to hasten the .normalization of trade and financial relationships between the U.S. and the USSR. At the same time, both delegations expressed satisfaction that, despite the difficulties Qf the past year, bilateral trade - 2 continues at a high level. While Soviet agricultural imports declined in 1974, the overall volume of trade last year was approximately $1 billion -- four times what it was in 1970. The general expectation of the commission was that bilateral trade would reach at least $1 billion in 1975 and might well exceed that figure. Both sides agreed that in the near future they would start work on the preparation of targets for the next three to five year period. Another advance noted in the discussion was the progress made under the Long Term Economic Agreement of June 29, 1974 The purpose of that agreement is to assist appropriate organizations, enterprises and firms of both countries in identifying the fields of cooperation most likely to provide a basis for mutually beneficial contracts An Experts Working Group established under that Agreement has already met once in Moscow (February 12-14) and exchanged information and forecasts of the basic economic, industrial and commercial trends in the two countries. Because the results of that meeting proved to be highly fruitful, the Commission was agreed to schedule a second meeting in Washington during the first six months of 1976. In addition there was agreement on the need to exchange information on economic, industrial and foreign trade trends in the two countries during the first half of 1975, and also to organize in 1975 seminars and joint specialized meetings to exchange information on the organizational and legal aspects of trade between the Soviet Union and th.e United States. 3 - In addition, during the two-day session, the Commission: — 'Heard reports and exchanged viev/s on the status of discussions between Soviet foreign trade organizations and US companies on a number of cooperation projects, including those such as exploration for oil and gas, expansion of the pulp and paper industry, machine-building, and the manufacture of energy-consuming products; 0 — Heard a report from the US-USSR Trade and Economic Council on its efforts in assisting business circles in both countries in identifying possibilities for expanded trade and economic cooperation; — Reaffirmed its intention to facilitate, as appropriate, the issuance of visas including multiple entry visas, to representatives of organizations, enterprises and firms and their travel for business purposes; and — Agreed to promote trade and cooperation between the civil aviation industries of the two countries by favoring acceleration of arrangements for negotiations on a Bilateral airworthiness agreement. Xn general, the sessions were marked by a belief that bonds between the two countries were gathering strength and by a mutual determination to overcome the remaining impediments to the normalization of trade. Both delegations also agreed that despite occasional strains during the past year, the meeting in Moscow has helped to generate a new sense of forward momentum in trade relations between their countries. -*4 - The Commission expressed satisfaction with the results of the Sth session, considering that discussion that took place would help to normalize and develop long term and mutually beneficial trade and economic relations. An understanding was reached to conduct the next (sixth) session of the Commission in 1976 in Washington. The US Delegation expressed sincere gratitude for the warm hospitality extended to it by the Soviet side during its stay in the USSR.. iy I can't tell you what a thrill it is for me to be here at Cottey today. It's a double thrill since I was able to bring my Cottey roommate of 29 years ago, Earlene Lorette Herman, back with me. Earlene and I see many changes as we walk around the campus. "Old Main" and Neale Hall, and PEO Hall are familiar to us, but the other buildings are new. All of "our" faculty are gone, of course, and some of the old rules and regulations have disappeared as well, although who knows, with the current craze for nostalgia, they may be back in style some day. I remember that in the "old days" -- they were our young days -- Earlene and I were required to wear hats and gloves even when we walked to downtown Nevada. And I received more than a few demerits for wearing trousers to study in the library on weekends. Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff, Cottey College, Nevada, Missouri, on May 11, 1975. Well, times change, as I learned when my daughter Sindle went to Cottey 19 68-197 0. But the feeling you have now hasn't changed — the feeling that graduation is a formal turning point in your lives -- and the ques9 tion is what will happen next? After today, all of you, and I, too, will go our separate ways. But for this moment we are together, sharing our common bond: as Cottey graduates or about-tobe-graduates. So in this time together, I would just like to talk with you about some of the things Cottey gave me that I still value after more than a quarter of a century of life "afterwards." High on my list of benefits would have to be enduring friendships. My former roommate Earlene, is now living in the same apartment building in V7ashington, D.C. And another Cottey roommate is today a prize-winning painter in San Antonio, Texas, where I visited her about a month ago. Because ours is a small, closely-knit school, I think that you, too, will maintain contact through the years with your special friends from here. Cherish them well, because you never really lose your youth as long as you have old friends from your young days who remember you not as you are, but as the skinny funny girl that you were. A second reason I loved Cottey is that it prepared me to study and to grow intellectually. I came from a very small town in New Mexico, and Cottey helped me to make the transition from my hometown to a large state university. I doubt if I could have done nearly as well without this cultural, social and scholastic enrichment. Third, Cottey developed my intellect. Through books, it introduced me to some of the world's great thinkers. Through music and art, it introduced me to the so-called finer things of life. And through contact with the faculty, it stimulated my desire to learn. I know it is fashionable among some people today to ridicule the whole idea of higher education. One writer has remarked that an A.A. degree means only that you have mastered the first letter of the alphabet. And the author Caroline Bird, in her recent book, "The Case Against College" refers to higher education as "voluntary servitude" in a "padded playpen." I vehemently disagree. I am happy to note that enrollment in American colleges and universities doubled in the last 15 years. But I am disturbed that in our national quest for a quantity of degrees, we are losing out on quality. I was, for example, sorry to read the other day that some college textbooks have been rewritten in a simpler language because so many college students today cannot read at the traditional college level. And I'm told that at the University of California, almost half of the freshman class take remedial English. Cottey has prepared you well for further academic work — and you will find this a daily help and pleasure wherever you go. A greater understanding and respect for other women is another legacy. Earlene and I were students years before women's lib or Equal Rights Amendments or International Women's Year came along. But we had so-called "role models" — achieving women — here on campus to observe, and we had opportunities to become leaders ourselves in a supportive environment. I'm pleased that women's colleges everywhere are staging a quiet comeback. Cottey also helped to shape my feeling that I owed my community something in the way of return volunteer service. Studies show, in fact, that graduates of small, liberal arts colleges are those who, in later life, are most actively involved in community affairs. As a young wife and mother I volunteered my services for everything from the P.T.A. to the GOP. I had been a volunteer for all kinds of causes for over 25 years when I was asked to become United States Treasurer. I accepted the new role -- my children were grown and my household was more or less running itself -- after considerable hesitation. But I felt I could make an honest contri- • * E7 bution to our government from my viewpoint as a wife and mother. And, after I had urged other women to use their talents, how could I back down when this splendid offer came? I have been Treasurer for almost 11 months now, and my days are a race between exhilaration and exhaustion. In addition to the traditional jobs, I am the first woman National Director of the United States Savings Bonds Division. Our Division has less than 4 60 full-time employees, but we have thousands of unpaid volunteer Savings Bonds workers all over America. with them — And I enjoy working I feel at home with them -- because of my many years of volunteer service. Since my swearing-in last June, I've traveled to 27 states on business; been given the keys to the cities of St. Louis, San Diego, Albuquerque, and Dayton, Ohio; and received an honorary Doctor of Humane Letters from a New York college. I've been greeted at airports by everything from red carpets and military escorts to announcements that my plane will be three hours late and they can't find my bags. In between business trips, I work many ten-hour days in Washington. I enjoy most of my new life -- and especially this weekend at Cottey. I look upon myself as a wife, mother and citizen who took the volunteer route to a career. And I thank Cottey for encourag me to feel a deep concern for my community. Finally, Cottey gave me a firmer perspective on my own life and personal values. Like you, I was concerned with self identity and similar questions. I do not believe I could have coped with life nearly as well at a large school. The cry of the young — for a sense of selfhood, for a human-size community — is the very cry that small colleges can best answer. Discipline, knowledge, friendship and a concern for others are some of the lasting benefits I took with me from Cottey, and I think they will be yours as well. But today, you are more concerned with the future. As you sit here, all alike in your white caps and gowns, but so individual underneath these graduation clothes, you naturally wonder where you will go — what you will do — who you will be — now that these Cottey days are over. You wonder how life will change you and whether your mind or your waistline will expand the most. I've been searching my mind to decide what I could say about your future that would be helpful. I've found that my thoughts aren't very original. But, for whatever they're worth, here is the most honest advice I can offer. First, have a goal -- your own goal, not necessarily that of your teachers or parents. Your goals will change, as you grow and change. But believe in something, or f; f happiness will never have a chance to warm your life. Keep your goals flexible. lifetime scenerios in advance. We seldom know our When my friend Earlene graduated from Cottey, she took an office job, married, had children, and then, after many years, went back to school, received a master's degree and is now in my office in Washington. In my case, I never dreamed that volunteer work would lead to signing my name on our dollar bills. But every small step along the way led to another step and another goal. Something similar will happen to you. Work hard at whatever you choose. Build castles in the air, and then put foundations under them. I'm thinking now of one of my Cottey classmates, Dr. Barbara Lagerstedt Knudson, who was the first dean of University College at the University of Minnesota. And of Dr. Dora Strather, class of '41 at Cottey, who was the first woman to earn a Ph.D. in aeronautical education and who set world records in flying? and of Kelly Smith Tunney, class of '60, who was a well-known Associated Press writer until she opted for marriage and children and a home in Hong Kong. None of them settled for a life that was either second-hand or second-best. If you have a career — do a terrific job. choose marriage and motherhood — If you give that your best. if 10 And by the way, I'd like to put in a few good words for that much maligned institution right now. Marriage and motherhood are not for all women, just as marriage and fatherhood are not for all men. But no matter how many communes are formed, marriage and the family keep coming back in style. I personally wouldn't have it any other way. My 27 years with a terrific husband are still exciting, except maybe for mopping the kitchen floor. And my two children, now in their twenties, have given me more laughter and tears than any two people alive. Never stop growing. Life is not a station arrive at, but a way of traveling. go all the way. you Go first class, and Be one person today, and another person five years from now when you come back for a class reunion. Life i^s change — but you can determine a great deal about which way you change. Continue to cherish people. Seek the friendship of people you can relate to in happiness and respect, and give your own friendship generously. I am blessed at this time in my life because I am living and working with not only Earlene, my Cottey friend, but another roommate sorority friend from the University of New Mexico, and still a third friend from Albuquerque. Altogether they represent 64 years of friendship. 9 • - - y>/ Don't forget the moral basics of life. I do not know what you expect of yourself. But what God expects of you can be summed up in one line from the Bible, when the prophet Micah says, "For what doth the Lord expect of thee but to do justice and to love mercy and to walk humbly with thy God?" That one sen- tence is a whole moral philosophy. Finally, laugh a lot. Today we are sometimes made to feel that happiness is selfish, as though our '.laughter and enjoyment diminish other people. it's exactly the opposite. But Laughter is life-giving. It is joy, rather than anguish, we should seek as the ideal. I have mentioned very little about war, hatred, or economic upsets. These are the daily staples of the nightly newscasts; and it is true that if you want a quiet, uneventful life, then .you are living in the wrong century. But I have wanted to talk with you of other things just as important, but seldom discussed. I have wanted to remind you again that the world holds love and laughter, and wonderful opportunities to use every ounce of your brains and heart and spirit for the rest of your long lives. -10- If the new life you are about to start is kind, rejoice and enjoy and help others. If life hands you a lemon instead, then go make lemonade — and make the best darn lemonade in town. Cottey has given you all it can. Now go on to learn more, give more, laugh more and live more elsewhere. And know that you go with my very best hopes and prayers for your future. Thank you. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE APRIL 11, 1975 PLANS ANNOUNCED FOR SPECIAL PAYMENTS TO SOCIAL SECURITY AND RAILROAD RETIREMENT BENEFICIARIES The Treasury Department today announced that planning has been completed for the special, one-time payments of $50 authorized for recipients of social security, supplemental security income, and railroad retirement benefits under the Tax Reduction Act of 1975, Public Law 94-12. The Social Security Administration and the Railroad Retirement Board are cooperating with the Department in the special payment program. The $50 payments will be issued to the more than 34 million individuals under the above programs who are paid a regular benefit for the month of March 19 75. Those individuals who receive benefits under two or more of the programs will be entitled to only one $50 payment. The conventional green Treasury checks will be used for these payments. Treasury disbursing offices will begin issuing the special payments in early May 19 75, subject to enactment of appropriations by the Congress as required by the Act, but.due to heavy workloads resulting from tax rebates to individual taxpayers authorized under the same Act, will not complete the mailing until about June 20. Recipients should not be concerned, therefore, if their checks do not arrive during the latter part of May or early June. However, if a payment does not arrive by June 30 individuals entitled to the special payments should contact their regular benefit office. Attached are questions and answers containing additional information. oOo Attachment Note to Correspondents Press contacts: Disbursing Matters (Tsy) - James Abbott, tel: 202/964-2601 Benefit Matters (SSA) - Michael Naver, tel: 301/594-2200 WS-278 - 2 - L9 iy QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON SPECIAL $50 PAYMENT QUESTION: Is the special $50 payment a social security benefit? ANSWER: No. Under the Tax Reduction Act of 1975, Congress emphasized that the $50 payments to people who get social security, supplementa 1 security income, and railro ad retirement benefits are not social security b enefits. Rather, they are intended to give aged, blind, and disabled p eople a payment comparable in nature to the tax rebates which the new law pr ovides to those who ar e working. Why did Congress vote this payment? QUESTION ANSWER: QUESTION ANSWER: QUESTION Congress has stated that the purpose of the special $50 payment is the same as that of the tax rebates— to inject new spending money into the economy to help the nation's economic recovery. Where does the money for the special payment come from? The payments are financed from general, revenues of the U.S. Treasury. They do not come from social security trust funds. Can I receive both the special $50 payment and a 197^ tax rebate? ANSWER: Yes, as long as you meet the eligibility requirements for each. QUESTION When will my $50 special payment come? ANSWER: Assuming enactment of the necessary appropriation, the majority of the payments will be mailed out by the Treasury Department beginning in early May and continuing to about June 20. The payment will come automatically. You don't need to apply. V/hat do I do if I haven't received my check by about June 20? QUESTION ANSWER: Please wait until the end of June before you do anything. Your check may be on its way to you. If you get social security or SSI, and the special $50 payment has not arrived by the en.1 of June, call your local social security office. Railroad retirement beneficiaries should pet in touch wiu, the nearest Railroad Retirement Boar.: Office. - 3 7- QUESTION: How will I recognize my special $50 payment? The $50 special payment will be paid in a green U.S. Treasury check mailed in a brown envelope. A notice inside the envelope will tell you what the check is for. The questions and answers given below apply to railroad retirement benefits as well as social security benefits. ANSWER: 8. 9. QUESTION My husband and I both get social security. we each get $50. ANSWER: Yes. QUESTION I'm a widow with eight children and we get social security. Do I get a separate $50 payment for myself and $50 for each child? Yes. You will get a $50 check for yourself and another check which will include a $50 payment for each of the children. Will my $50 payment be included with my social security check? ANSWER: 10. QUESTION Do ANSWER: No. The $50 payment will come in a separate check 11. QUESTION Will the payment count as income to reduce my SSI, food stamps, Medicaid, or any other assistance I may be getting? No. The Tax Reduction Act expressly provides that the payments will not be counted as income or resource for calendar year 1975"for purposes of such assistance programs. Also, the payments will not count as taxable income. I applied in March for social security, but they told me that I wouldn't get my check until June. Do I get the $50 special payment? ANSWER: 12. QUESTION ANSWER: 13 . QUESTION Yes. As long as you applied for social security before April 1, and you receive a check for the month of March issued no later than August 31, you will get a $50 special payment. I received my first social security check April 3. Does this mean that I missed the March eligibility deadline for the $50 special payment? - 4- 14. 15. ANSWER: No. The social security check you received in April is payment for March. Under social security your April 3 check is payment for the previous month. QUESTION: I received my first SSI check in April for the month of April. Does this entitle me to the $50 payment? ANSWER: No. Since entitlement to SSI benefits is based on need, the check comes in the same month as the month of eligibility to meet current needs. You would have had to get an SSI check for March, issued by August 31, 1975, to be eligible for the $50 special payment. I receive both social security and SSI. Does this mean I will get two $50 payments? , No. Each eligible person gets only one $50 payment. QUESTION: ANSWER: 16. QUESTION: I get a special age 72 payment from social security each month. Do I get a $50 payment too? ANSWER: 17. 18. 19. Yes. QUESTION: I'm eligible for social security but I didn't.get a check for March because I was working- Am I eligible? No. People whose social security check for March ANSWER: was withheld because of work do not get the $50 special payment. QUESTION: I get social security, but I didn't get a check for March because I owed the Government for a previous month's overpayment. Am I eligible? Yes. Although you did not receive a check, ANSWER: you were, in effect, paid for March. QUESTION: ANSWER: 20. J(V< QUESTION: I am eligible for social security because I am a widow with minor children in my care. However, the children were not in my care in March. Am I eligible? If you did not receive a check for the month of March because the children were not in your care, you will not receive the $50 special payment. I think I am eligible for social security, but my case is being appealed. Will I get the special payment? - 5 - 21. 22. ANSWER: Only if you receive a check for the month of March issued by August 31. QUESTION I applied for social security in March because I was eligible, but I decided not to take my first check until May. Will I get the special payment? ANSWER: If you change the month in which you elect your benefits to start from May to March you can get the special payment. See your social security office. I got a social security payment for March but it was reduced because of my work. Do I still get the $50 special payment? As long as you received a social security check for March, no matter how small, you are eligible for the $50 special payment. As of March, I am entitled to social security father's benefits based on the Supreme Court decision in March. Will I also get the special payment? Yes, if you applied before April 1 and if your March check is issued by August 31. Even if you applied before April 1 only for lump sum death benefits, that application holds for all social security benefits due you, including the new court-ordered father's benefits. You said the special payments will be mailed out by June 20. How do I get mine if my eligibility is not established until July or August? After June 20, the special, payments will be sent out monthly as the lists are updated. If you receive in August a social security check for the month of March, chances are your special payment will arrive by the end of August or the middle of September. Row will the special payment affect the benefit increase social security beneficiaries are supposed to get this year? The special payment will have no effect on any future benefit increases. QUESTION ANSWER: 3. QUESTION ANSWER: 24. QUESTION ANSWER: 25. QUESTION ANSWER: "'^T9¥ EOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 12, 1975 COINAGE STUDY CONTRACT AWARDED BY MINT ( TREASURY ) Director of the Mint Mary Brooks announced today that a contract to conduct a comprehensive review of U. S. coinage requirements to the year 1990 has been awarded to Research Triangle Institute of Park, North Carolina. The study will examine methods for projecting long and short range coin requirements, and the system for production, inventory, and distribution needed to meet these demands. Consideration will be given to options for changes in coin denominations, including size, shape and composition of future coins. Public acceptability and the economic effects of following different coinage options will be a primary part of the study. Ten bids were received for this project. The winning bidder, Research Triangle Institute, is experienced in demand forecasting and other economic projections, as well as analysis of production inventory and distribution systems, and market research. The company is also highly qualified in metallurgy and other technical skills required to assess alternative materials for coin composition. The study will begin immediately and is scheduled for completion in twelve months. Project Manager is M r . John Buck, of the Treasury's Office of Management and Organization. -oOo- ^ Department of theTREASURY WASHINGTON, DC. 20220 TELEPHONE W04-2041 /789 TUK J.WJvUiU±AT^ K1S±_JSA&__, ciy J.*, x STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE HOUSE BANKING CURRENCY AND HOUSING COMMITTEE WASHINGTON, D.C., MAY 12, 1975 Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: Before commenting specifically on H.R. 6676, I would like to express my appreciation to the Chairman and the Committee for these hearings which will help focus attention on a matter of vital importance to our financial system and, indeed, to our economic system. As the Committee will recall, I have testified previously about my deep concerns with the philosophy of credit allocation. I would like to refer to a portion of the testimony I gave on H.R. 212 the so called "Lower Interest Rate Act of 1975." "Americans have always relished their freedoms, and building upon those freedoms we have created an incredibly complex and innovative economy. Our economy is not only the largest but the most sophisticated in the world. We have an estimated 35,000 financial institutions in this country employing hundreds of different credit instruments within the almost as many different financial markets. No one knows Precisely how many loans are made each year, but the figure must be in the billions and the number of different credit transactions must honestly run intobelieve the trillions. Does anyone that government bureaucrats -- counting the best and the brightest among them -- can or should be the ultimate arbiters of how each of these loans is to be made? Within the words of this statute, how could we trust a federal official, however well-intentioned, to answer the questions that would quickly pile up in Washington?" VS *99 - 2 I am sure that supporters of H.R. 6676 will argue that the present bill is not a credit allocation act because it merely sets up a data collection system for the reporting of credit extensions by commercial banks categorized by certain broad national priority uses. I disagree. I consider the potential and implied threats posed by this bill to be as severe as the threat which was embodied in H.R. 212. By its own statement of purpose, this is a bill "to maximize the availability of credit for national priority uses." Is it not reasonable to conclude that commercial banks reporting credit extensions not included in the specified national priority list will be under pressure to conform and if conformity is not forthcoming, that quotas will be established for so-called national priority uses? There is no way that I can interpret subsection 2e except as an effort to exercise direct Congressional control over specific uses of bank credit, with the Federal Reserve System serving as an intermediary. Even assuming that I am in error and that the intent is only to assure that the Congress is fully informed as to the uses of our limited supply of credit, H.R. 6676 will not serve that purpose. In fact, the information that would be collected would be largely meaningless. In the first place, money is fungible. Ultimately, there is no way for a lender to be certain of the end use of the proceeds of any particular borrowing. Secondly, the wording of the eight national priority categories calls for value judgments on the part of the Federal Reserve Board and the reporting banks. I sincerely doubt whether there would be agreement, even among the members of this Committee, as to whether any given loan for capital investment was for "productive" or non-productive purposes or whether equipment purchased was "essential." Who is to say what constitutes a "normal" working capital need in an economic environment where change and flexibility are the rule rather than the exception? This attempt to describe in a few simple definitions what are essentially complex value judgments seems to me to be of questionable value, even assuming the best efforts at good faith compliance. 0* Moreover, in focusing on commercial bank loans, this bill ignores substantial and important sources of credit for all of the national priority purposes which it has identified. It does not inquire into the lending of savings banks, which provide a large part of housing credit and also make other loans; by credit unions, which are important consumer lenders but also make investments; by insurance companies, both life and casualty, which are important sources of funds for a wide range of activities; and by other financial intermediaries. An additional problem presented by H.R. 6676 is the uncertainty that it may generate among borrowers who perceive that specific credit allocation is certain to follow. In order to obtain protection from such an eventuality, they may rush to obtain funds for purposes which we believe to be outside the boundaries of this legislation. This would divert funds from the purposes which the drafters of this bill are seeking to support, and thus could partially frustrate the basic intent of the legislation. But let me raise even more fundamental questions. If one assumes that the eight categories of loans are meaningful — and I do not -- it is still highly questionable whether this approach would solve the problems of the allocation of credit resources among all the competing demand more efficiently than our free market system. The bill speaks about national priority uses and asks for reports of the amount of credit devoted to each. Presumably the Committee will attempt to evaluate those reports as though there were some optimum amount of credit that ought to be allocated to one use or another. The Committee knows, however, that such absolutes do not exist. Rather, the question is whether the particular amount shown in each category is the proper amount. How can aggregated and partial statistics help to answer this question? This Government has already experimented with credit allocation on a very large scale. Indeed, in the current fiscal year and in the next fiscal year, about 50 cents out of every credit dollar will, in effect, be allocated by the Federal Government -- either borrowed directly to finance Government spending and lending or indirectly channeled to particular uses through guarantees to private borrowers. - 4 One of the most useful things this Committee could do would be to investigate the consequences of this massive allocation of credit by the Federal Government. All of us must ask whether these programs have provided adequate benefits for those thev are intended to help and whether these benefits outweiqh the costs of divertinq funds from other, often more productive uses. In most instances the Federal credit allocation which already exists has been away from productive investment and toward uses in which productivity is low. As a result we may have sacrificed real national qrowth which would have provided greater benefits for everyone. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee, H.R. 6676 is unworthy of this Committee's support. I urge that you disapprove it and instead turn your energies to the consideration of other measures which will strengthen our economy and thereby contribute to our nation's future prosperity and liberty. Department of theTREASURY TELEPHONE W04-2041 . D C 20220 IKl /y FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 12, 1975 RESULTS OF TREASURY'S WEEKLY BILL AUCTIONS Tenders for $2.8 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and for •* 2.8 billion of 26-week Treasury bills, both series to be issued on May 15, ±975, were opened at the Federal Reserve Banks today. The details are as follows: 26-week bills maturing November 13, 1975 RANGE OF ACCEPTED 13-week bills COMPETITIVE BIDS: maturing August 14, 1975 High Low Average Price Discount Rate Investment Rate 1/ Price 98.693 98.689 98.690 5.171% 5.186% 5.182% 5.33% 5.34% 5.34% 97.250 a/ 97.211 97.229 Discount Rate 5.440% 5.517% 5.481% Investment Rate 1/ 5.69% 5.77% 5.73% a/ Excepting 1 tender of $300,000 Tenders at the low price for the 13-week bills were allotted 100%. Tenders at the low price for the 26-week bills were allotted 78%. TOTAL TENDERS RECEIVED AND ACCEPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS: District Received Boston $ 40,385,000 New York 4, 755,680,000 Philadelphia 64,510,000 Cleveland 78,650,000 24,115,000 Richmond Atlanta 31,510,000 468,690,000 Chicago 56,695,000 St. Louis 22,550,000 Minneapolis 44,910,000 Kansas City 33,770,000 Dallas San Francisco 803,835,000 TOTALS$6,425,300,000 Accepted $ 24,280,000 2,034,730,000 23,485,000 32,475,000 18,940,000 25,380,000 36,545,000 24,195,000 5,600,000 29,485,000 18,770,000 530,120,000 Received $ 22,880,000 3,969,540,000 11,470,000 54,515,000 39,590,000 47,920,000 234,830,000 46,740,000 25,610,000 23,040,000 26,200,000 328,535,000 $2,804,005,000 W$4,830,870,000 Accepted $ 7,595,000 2,328,840,000 11,090,000 52,315,000 30,770,000 32,635,000 121,255,000 36,540,000 22,610,000 17,080,000 18,760,000 120,655,000 $2,800,145,000 c/ 2J Includes $366,600,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. SJ Includes $156,235,000 noncompetitive tenders from the public. 1/ Equivalent coupon-issue yield. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY Monday, May 12, 1975 Eo FOR INFORMATION CALL: (202) 456-6757 REMARKS OF ALBERT REES DIRECTOR OF THE COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY BEFORE THE SPRING BOARD MEETING OF THE NATIONAL CANNERS ASSOCIATION WILLIAMSBURG, VIRGINIA MAY 12, 1975 From the beginning of our current efforts to bring inflation under control, we in the Council on Wage and Price Stability have had a special interest in the price of food. It is for that reason that I am particularly glad to be able to meet this morning with representatives of such an important segment of the food industry. As you know, the recent news on food prices for consumers has been very good. In March, the Consumer Price Index for food, seasonally adjusted, was down 0.5 percent, and for food consumed at home it was down 0.9 percent. We know that further price reductions have taken place in April and May, and that canned foods have participated in these price declines. The Council on Wage and Price Stability has helped to restrain the cost of canned foods. In our discussions with the steel industry last December, we persuaded several companies to roll back a large part of their announced price increases for tinplate, the material from which food cans are made. We have also been making a study of the can manufacturing industry, which will be completed very soon. Finally, we held hearings on the price of sugar that helped to mobilize consumer resistance to high sugar prices, and, as you all know, the price of sugar has since fallen substantially. This is good news for canners of fruit and other sweetened products. But, although the news about food prices has been good in recent weeks, there are threats on the horizon that could produce higher food prices in the future. One of these was the farm bill passed by the Congress last month, which would have raised loan and target prices for crops very substantially. This could have resulted in the diversion of acreage from badly needed food to cotton, which is already in substantial surplus. Fortunately, President Ford has vetoed this bill and we feel confident that his veto will be sustained. CWPS- 44 (more) - 2 A second threat to lower prices that is always present is bad weather. If the United States or other major food producing countries have smaller than normal crops in 1975, this could send food prices upward again. The final threat is the possibility of sharply higher costs of food distribution which could raise the margin between farm prices and retail prices. These farm-to-market spreads, which rose substantially in 1974, have narrowed in recent weeks, but long-run forces are tending toward further increases. The costs of food processing and distribution include payments by processor and distributors for fuel, interest, transportation, local taxes, and, most importantly, wages. If wages rise faster than productivity, unit labor costs must rise, and this must ultimately be reflected in retail food prices. I am disturbed both by the size of some recent wage settlements and by new impediments to the improvement of productivity. Some recent collective bargaining agreements in the retail food industry have provided for increases in wages and benefits in the first year of 12 to 16 percent. Some of these increases can be explained as catching up with previous increases in the cost of living or as correcting inequities between crafts or between geographical areas. But, however they are explained, the customer must pay for them in higher food prices. Management spokesmen tell me that they feel powerless to resist what they regard as excessive wage demands and some call for changes in labor laws to rectify alleged imbalances in bargaining power. Perhaps such changes should be considered. However, I am not convinced that management is generally using its present powers effectively. Too often there is little unity among the mangement parties to the same negotiation, and too often management waits until the last possible moment to do realistic bargaining. In too many cases, management is being outgunned and outmaneuvered by able union leaders who know their business and work hard at it. The rapid rise in wages would be far less disturbing if there were also rapid rises in productivity, but recently productivity in the nonfarm economy has been falling. The short-run drop in productivity is, of course, an effect of the recession and will be reversed during the coming recovery. But even the longer run trends in productivity have been somewhat disappointing. One of the major sources of gains in productivity is technological change, and few technological changes in food distribution have the potential for increasing productivity as much as the automated checkstand in retail food stores, where a laser beam reads quickly and accurately the Universal Product Code which all of you print on your labels. This device improves inventory control, saves labor, and speeds the customer through the checkout with an itemized receipt listing every item purchased and its priceMuch of the labor is saved because the Universal Product Code makes it unnecessary to mark or stamp the price on every can or package. Unfortunately, food chains that are attempting to test consumer acceptance of this system are being picketed by consumer groups (more) and unions, so that a fair test has not yet been possible. Because of the high turnover of personnel in retail food stores, the labor saved by the automated checkstand can be saved through attrition, and no one needs to be laid off. Nevertheless, it is understandable that unions oppose the device. What I cannot understand is why consumer groups oppose it; and why, even before the system has had a fair trial, they sponsor legislation to require price markings on cans and packages. To give shoppers the ability to read the price in the brief time after the can has been taken from the shelf and before it has been checked out, the consumer organizations are apparently willing to sacrifice some of the labor cost savings that make possible a system which will bring not only cheaper food, but speedier service and accurate charges. I find it difficult to believe that this represents the true preferences of their own members, but I would be happy to consider evidence that I am wrong, I hope that our legislators will be willing to give the new system a fair trial, and will not rush to pass laws that will permanently raise food costs and prices. A second potential source of productivity gain in food distribution is the elimination of empty backhauls by private motor carriers. Here again recent news has not been good. The Interstate Commerce Commission currently prohibits one subsidiary of a corporation from hauling freight for either the corporate parent or for another subsidiary of the same corporation except on a gratuitous basis. If even an "accounting price" is charged, the service is considered to be "common carriage" subject to ICC rate and entry controls. There is strong evidence that this policy substantially impairs the productivity of private trucking fleets and wastes scarce fuel. In January, the Council on Wage and Price Stability filed a statement with ICC in support of a request by the Private Carrier Conference of the American Trucking Association that this ICC policy be modified. As yet, no decision has been made on this request. Another cause of empty backhauls is the interpretation of the Robinson Patman Act by the Federal Trade Commission which suggests that backhaul allowances based on actual freight costs might not be consistent with the Act. This unfortunate interpretation has recently been restated by FTC in reply to a letter from Consumers Union. Our legal staff believes that Robinson Patman permits differences in prices and rates when based on costs, and believes that actual cost backhaul allowances meet this test. However, if FTC is going to continue to interpret the Act so as to encourage higher prices for food and the waste of precious fuel, it is my personal view that the Act should be amended or repealed. I have been talking so far about matters that directly affect the food industry. In the time remaining, I should like to broaden my focus. First, I think that the outlook for price stability on a broader front is very encouraging, although I should warn you that the record of the economics profession in forecasting prices, my own included, is not a good one. My forecasts are not based on any formal econometric model, but rather on (more) our day-to-day work in price monitoring. Several weeks ago, I said that I expected the rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index during 1975 - 4 to be no more than 8 percent, and during the fourth quarter no more than 6 percent. With each passing day, this prediction looks safer, and the chance that we will do even better grows. Moreover, I do not see any reason to expect the acceleration of price increases in the first part of 1976. We feel confident that by then we will be well into a vigorous economic recovery. But there will still be slack in the economy, and productivity will be rising rapidly. Both of these forces will contribute to price moderation. Some private forecasters are predicting a decline in the rate of inflation throughout 1976, and they could well be right. Let me also touch on the prospects for renewed wage and price controls. Last week, the Senate passed by a vote of 67 to 20 a bill to extend the Council on Wage and Price Stability Act. This bill, as introduced in January, contained several features for delay powers over wage and price increases that were a step back toward controls. Not one of these features survived in the bill passed by the Senate. There simply is no substantial sentiment for controls or anything resembling controls in Congress at this time. The bill passed by the Senate would give the Council on Wage and Price Stability subpoena powers. If this provision is enacted into law, we would plan to use these powers very sparingly, and only in unusual circumstances. Despite what has happened in Congress, I keep hearing from people in business the view that controls are coming back, and that prices must be kept up to prevent their being frozen at low levels. I cannot imagine where these totally unfounded reports originate. The only possibility of renewed price controls would arise if businesses raised prices without strong reasons based on costs and demand conditions, or failed to pass on decreases in costs to their customers. Then the fear of controls could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I remain confident that this is not going to happen. o 0 o CWPS- 44 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY 726 JACKSON PLACE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C 20506 ] U^ May 12, 1975 For Information Call: (202) 456-6757 MEMORANDUM FOR CORRESPONDENTS; Attached for your information is a letter from George Eads, Assistant Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability for Government Operations and Research, to Roger Strelow, Assistant Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, in response to an April 22 letter from Mr. Strelow regarding the Council's staff's April 7th filing before the Federal Aviation Administration regarding the EPA's proposed aircraft noise retrofit regulations. o 0 o CWPS-43 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL ON WAGE AND PRICE STABILITY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 May 9, 1975 3 Mr. Roger Strelow Assistant Administrator for Air and Waste Management U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, D. C. 20460 Dear Mr. Strelow: Thank you for your letter of April 22, discussing some of the points we raised in our filing before the Federal Aviation Administration Rules Docket regarding the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed aircraft noise retrofit regulations. We have reviewed your comments as you requested but find no reason to change the recommendation stated in our April 7, filing. Your letter presents no additional analysis or evidence of which we had not already taken account in the April .7, filing. Ho.vever, perhaps some clarification of the points you raised in the April 2?, letter would improve the understanding of our analysis and recommendations. 1. First, on the Significance of Health and Welfare. The EPA presents no evidence that anyone living around an airport has suffered hearing damage as a result of aircraft noise. As you know, your Leq of 70 dB standard is based on adjustments ana extrapolations from a standard of 73 dB for workplace exposure, a figure 12 dB below the eight hour workplace standard proposed by EPA to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and 17 dB below the standard currently used by OSHA. And, as you may know, the standard of 73 dB has been rejected by the Secretary of Labor as "a criterion for 'material impairment1 which can neither be subjectively observed nor instrumentally measured." (See 40 Federal Register 12337.) Second, we are in full agreement with you that a broad view of what "health" means should be used in evaluating public policy. We agree that "annoyance" to aircraft noise might affect the "Public Health and Welfare" but we reject the notion that annoyance must be reduced at all costs. This is because of the tradeoffs involved. The reduction of this annoyance imposes costs in a world of limited resources that reduces the health and welfare society derives from the other goods, services, and amenities that must be sacrificed to produce the reduction in noise. A further consideration is that according to recent polls the main "annoyance" cited by the majority of Americans is inflation. Certainly a broad view of the public health is necessary to effective public policy making. - 2 - 2. On the Number of Persons Affected by Aircraft Noise. In questioning our "statement" that "approximately 2-1/2 percent of the population lies within the NEF 30 dB noise contours." Your letter claims that our figure is incorrect and that actually 7.5 million and 3-3/4 percent are the correct figures. In quoting our statement you left out the word "presently" after "population" and referred to the 7.5 million figure which presumably is from your Project Report, page 10-16, figure 10. This figure, however, refers to the 1972 baseline estimate while we clearly were discussing 1975. As pointed out both in your project report and our filing, the number of people affected by aircraft noise has been declining since 1972 and will continue even with a "do nothing" strategy. FAA estimates that about 4.9 million people live within the 30 NEF contour. Our estimate of "approximately 2-1/2 percent" implies 5.3 million people given our present 212 million population. Also note that the 16 million figure quoted in the next paragraph of your letter again refers to 1972. Furthermore, both the FAA and the Department of Housing and Labor Development use the 30 NEF (Ldn 65) noise contours as their acceptability standard. Our point that noise pollution as distinguished from many other types of pollution that accumulate in the environment over time is a transitory phenomenon, we think, is a valid one. If one used the criteria outlined in your letter it would preclude defining any phenomenon as transitory. 3. The Regulation Mainly Accelerates Benefits That Would Accrue Eventually. Evidently you do not disagree with this point, but only with the timing. Here we only had the data presented in your Project Report, Figure 13, table 10-20. Observing the warning not to extrapolate between points on the graph, we calculated the time difference between the only two points that could be used. To the extent that your data are correct our analysis is correct. The data presented by your letter are. of course, new to us since they were not presented in your Project Report. They do seem a little startling to us in light of the previous evidence. For example, if one violates the warning and linearly extrapolates the 2segment line to the 39% benefit level, the time difference is just a little over three years, not ten as stated in your letter. Nevertheless, whatever the proper time frame our major point as illustrated by Figure 1 remains correct. The benefits provided by the proposed retrofit regulations simply speed up benefit levels that will -3- u yd occur naturally with a "do nothing" policy. The benefits as depicted on figure 1 is what EPA should be attempting to measure. In questioning our statement, you raised the point that the 2-segment landing approach is "uncertain at this point." If this is indeed the case, your cost-effectiveness analysis should be recalculated to take this development into account. The 2-segment approach is relatively cost-effective and when both the cost and benefits of this approach are added to the costs and benefits of the retrofit approach, the cost-effectiveness or desirability of retrofitting is overstated. Finally, the discussion of the costs of the "do nothing" alternative reveals a misunderstanding of the benefit-cost analysis of public policy. It is true that "enormous capital investment will be required to replace the old, noisy airplanes" but this is not a social cost to society when made in accordance with good business practices and profit maximizing behavior. There always comes a point when replacing old capital equipment with more efficient new equipment is less costly than continuing to operate the old. Your point that the retrofit regulations would prolong the life of the old noisy airplanes and that this would indeed be good public policy is incorrect on both counts. The retrofit regulations shift the relative cost differential between new quiet and old noisy aircraft in favor of the new quiet aircraft. This result is the opposite phenomenon of the air pollution control devices on new cars leading to higher-used car prices. Thus the retrofit regulations can be expected to speed up the shift to newer aircraft. This shift will be aided by the highly developed used aircraft market among foreign airlines not impacted by the regulations. The increase in cost per retrofitted plane is not inconsequential but over $444,000 per plane (800 million ; 1800 planes). This estimate coupled with your estimate of an average $8 million cost per new plane (which neglects the trade-in value of the old planes) indicates that rapid replacement of the older aircraft is likely. On the second count, a good case cannot be made for encouraging the U. S. airlines to retain and retrofit the old airplanes if the new planes are more cost-effective than the old planes (including the additional costs of retrofit). A movement toward cost-effectiveness is anti-inflationary even if it increases spending. 4. Cost-Benefit Analysis. In quoting our discussion of EPA's cost-effectiveness analysis you left out crucial parts of our sentences. We are well aware that EPA attempted to measure benefits by the percentage of people removed from certain noise contours. Indeed, this method was what we were criticizing. - 4 - As the information on page 4 of your letter illustrates, different contour levels provide different results, and there seem to be as many different contour levels as there are investigations. (Note the disagreement on the Washington National Airport contours between the Department of Transportation study and EPA, mentioned on page 5 of your letter.) There is no meaningful way of comparing the number of people brought under a Ldn 80 contour with those brought under a Ldn 60 contour and then relating this to costs. The attempt to measure benefits by measuring the costs of alternative ways of accomplishing the same goal is a very poor second best solution. First, it is a cost-effectiveness technique, not a cost-benefit technique. Second, the method implicitly assumes that the benefits are infinite and therefore any costs can be justified with just the actual method of accomplishment in doubt. Clearly, the economic reasonableness doctrine indicates that this was not Congress' intent. Third, to be of any use, the alternative least cost method must be the benchmark technique. In the aircraft noise abatement case, the alternative method chosen appears to be one of the highest alternative cost approaches. For example, curfews or restrictions on nighttime operations for certain airports might well be both less costly and achieve greater NEF dB reductions than retrofit regulations. Other methods not considered are various tax schemes on the operations of the greatest noise offenders at the most vulnerable airports. This scheme might lead airlines to reallocate fleet operations in the most cost-effective way. Note that we are not recommending any of these methods, only posing them as examples. The parts left out of the quote on page 5 again distort our statement. In relative terms, the measurement of the costs of noise pollution is highly developed. Among economists the techniques employed to measure noise pollution are "generally acceptable" and have also been used in many other applications. The FAA has also adopted this approach to measuring noise abatement benefits while the BLS, DOT, and HUD, among others, have recently used hedonic price equations to measure the costeffectiveness of public policy. We did not cite all of the literature on the subject only the best and most recent of which we were aware. Furthermore, PhD dissertations are in the open literature, are summarized in various scientific periodicals, and are available on request from University Microfilms, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Indeed PhD dissertations, especially from the top universities, are frequently more up to date and of higher quality than the average journal article. One advantage of the technique (the hedonic price equation approach) is that it separately prices out the various characteristics of a plot of property such as environmental noise level, proximity to airports, proximity to the central business district, quality of the schools, property taxes, etc. In other words, these multiple regression models attempt to hold other factors constant allowing the investigator to "- 9C focus in on the policy relevant variable. Outside of controlled experiments, this technique is the only one available that can perform such a function. 5. The Fallacy of "Distributional Inequities.'1 We strongly disagree with your statement that: "While the inequitable distribution may in fact occur, that is completely irrelevant to the question of providing an environment free from noise that jeopardizes health and welfare." Providing an environment free from noise is a laudatory goal but in accomplishing that goal as in implementing any public policy action, the distributional effects should be carefully considered. In this case it is clear that property owners around airports both new and old stand to benefit while air travelers stand to pay. Equity considerations alone should not dictate public policy but should be combined with efficiency and other evaluative criteria. 6. Where is the Inflationary Impact Analysis? We were quite surprised to read that question because that was the question that our filing asked of the Environmental Protection Agency. According to Executive Order 11821 dated November 27, 1974/ the Agency proposing the regulations is supposed to accompany the regulations with an Inflationary Impact Statement. A mandated expenditure of over $800 million is inflationary if it produces benefits in smaller amounts than the costs. In our filing we asked if EPA disagreed with our conclusions, that they provide us with analyses that would clearly demonstrate that the benefits of the proposed regulations justified their costs. It is for the above reasons that we reaffirm our original recommendations. Sincerely, r • Georae/Lads Assistant Director Government Operations & Research FOR RELEASE 2:00 P.M., E.D.T. Monday, May 12, 197 5 CONTACT: Priscilla R. Crane (202) 634-5248 In a Memorandum of Agreement signed today, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Revenue Sharing and the Office for Civil Rights of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare established procedures for cooperative civil rights compliance efforts. The agreement was signed for the Treasury Department by Graham W. Watt, Director of the Office of Revenue Sharing. Mr. Peter Holmes, Director of the Office for Civil Rights and Special Assistant to the Secretary represented the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. The agreement states that its purpose is "... to establish certain procedures which will help to avoid duplication of investigative activity, provide for the timely exchange of information, and encourage joint action to secure voluntary compliance where appropriate.11 Where the Office for Civil Rights of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare determines that a recipient of Federal financial assistance is not in compliance with non-discrimination requirements of law, it will notify the Office of Revenue Sharing in the event the recipient may also -more- -2- be benefitting from entitlement funds. The Office of Revenue Sharing, on its part, will notify the Office for Civil Rights of any failure to comply with the civil rights provisions of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972 (revenue sharing law). The parties to the agreement will keep each other informed of investigative activities of mutual concern and of legal proceedings instituted upon a determination of noncompliance. Where appropriate and consistent with statutory and regulatory authority, each party will join in any proceeding initiated by the other. The two agencies agreed to initiate further discussions to determine whether investigative responsibilities and related administrative activities could be shared. Title I of the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972, which established the General Revenue Sharing program, provides that "No person in the United States shall on the grounds of race, color, national origin or sex be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity funded in whole or in part with ... (general revenue sharing funds)." To assist in monitoring compliance with the civil rights and other provisions of revenue sharing law, the Office of Revenue Sharing has developed an innovative system which enlists the assistance of other Federal and State agencies whose responsibilities relate to revenue sharing compliance activities. -more- (J---? -n -3- 9) \ It is the policy of the Office of Revenue Sharing to draw on resources and expertise already in place, rather than to duplicate what already exists. Cooperative working agreements have been concluded with the U. S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, State audit agencies in nearly all States, and with the Maryland Commission on Human Relations. The agreement with Maryland's civil rights agency, concluded April 28, 1975, is the first of a series of comparable arrangements to be made with State civil rights agencies throughout the country. Revenue sharing law authorizes the distribution of $30.2 billion to nearly 39,000 states, counties, cities, towns, townships Indian tribes and Alaskan native villages over a five year period that ends with December 1976. Some $18.9 billion has been distributed to date. The next quarterly payment of shared revenues will be made in July 1975. On April 25, 1975, President Ford proposed that General Revenue Sharing be continued past its presently-authorized deadline, through September 1982. -30- (J 9 v 7 ? J ADDRESS BY THE HONOf'ABLE WILLIAM E. SIMON SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE US-EUROPEAN SEMINAR WASHINGTON, D.C., MAY 13, 1975 MR. FOWLER, MR. BRADLEY, DEAN OSGOOD, AND DISTINGUISHED DELEGATES TO THE SECOND ANNUAL U.S.-EUROPEAN SEMINAR: I WELCOME THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TALK WITH YOU TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TO SEE SO MANY OLD FRIENDS. YOUR MEETINGS THIS YEAR COME AT A TIME WHEN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS FACING ITS MOST SERIOUS CHALLENGES IN MORE THAN A DECADE. MAJOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EVENTS » HAVE CROWDED SO RAPIDLY ONTO THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE THAT THERE IS A SENSE OF CONFUSION AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE. OUR FRIENDS AND, OF COURSE, OUR ADVERSARIES ARE QUESTIONING WHETHER THE UNITED STATES REMAINS STEADFAST IN PURPOSE AND WHETHER WE ARE WILLING TO STAND BY OUR COMMITMENTS TO A STABLE WORLD ORDER. _ 9 IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT WE THINK CLEARLY AND ACT DECISIVELY IN OUR RELATIONS ABROAD. WE MUST RECOGNIZE THAT OUR FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY MUST ADDRESS NOT ONE BUT A SERIES OF PROBLEMS. THOSE PROBLEMS ARE BOTH COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED, SO THAT PROGRESS IN ONE FIELD MAY HINGE UPON PROGRESS IN ANOTHER. SlMPLY STATED, THE CENTRAL CHALLENGES OF OUR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY ARE THREEFOLD: -- FIRST, TO RESTORE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PRICE STABILITY WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY; -- SECOND, TO ADAPT TO THE ENERGY SHOCK IN WAYS THAT WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF ORDERLY GROWTH; AND, -- THIRD, TO ADJUST OUR TRADE AND FINANCIAL POLICIES SO THAT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN THE ABILITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM TO ACCOMMODATE LARGE FINANCIAL FLOWS AND WILL ENCOURAGE THE PRODUCTION OF FOOD AND RAW MATERIALS ON TERMS^ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH PRODUCING AND CONSUMING NATIONS. -3- 9 9 ^y i WE KNOW FROM EXPERIENCE THAT WE CANNOT SINGLE-HANDEDLY SHAPE THE COURSE OF WORLD EVENTS, JUST AS NO OTHER NATION CAN, BUT OUR ACTIVE PARTICIPATION IN PROMOTING GREATER INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND HARMONY WILL BE INDISPENSABLE TO FINDING SOLUTIONS. THE FULL FORCES OF OUR GOVERNMENT ARE BEING MOBILIZED IN THIS EFFORT. PRESIDENT FORD, THROUGH A SERIES OF MEETINGS WITH FOREIGN LEADERS BOTH HERE AND ABROAD, IS PLAYING A VITAL LEADERSHIP ROLE IN SEEKING POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS. I HAVE RECENTLY RETURNED FROM AN EXTENDED TRIP AROUND THE WORLD WHICH ENABLED ME TO SPEAK WITH A NUMBER OF FINANCE LEADERS AND HEADS OF STATE, INCLUDING GENERAL SECRETARY BREZHNEV, ON ISSUES AFFECTING THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY. IN THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS, I PLAN TWO ADDITIONAL - 4TRIPS TO EUROPE AND WILL MEET WITH THE GOVERNORS OF THE INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK IN SANTO DOMINGO. SECRETARY KISSINGER, OF COURSE, IS ALSO PLAYING AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN OUR FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY, AND, IN FACT, WILL BE SETTING FORTH SEVERAL INITIATIVES WITH REGARD TO COMMODITIES IN A SPEECH IN KANSAS CITY TONIGHT. ACHIEVING STARIF, DURARIF GROWTH THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION THAT THE UNITED STATES CAN MAKE TO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC PROGRESS IS TO ACHIEVE STABLE, DURABLE GROWTH HERE AT HOME. YOUR INVITATION THAT MY TALK HERE TODAY DWELL ON PROSPECTS FOR THE U.S. i ECONOMY REFLECTS THAT VIEWPOINT. WHILE THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY NO LONGER REPRESENTS THE SAME FORCE IN THE WORLD ECONOMY THAT IT ONCE DID, IT STILL RETAINS A STRONG INFLUENCE. OUR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AMOUNTS TO OVER ONE QUARTER OF THE WORLD TOTAL, AND WE ARE THE WORLD'S LARGEST IMPORT MARKET, TAKING SOME 14 PERCENT OF WORLD EXPORTS. IF OL 7 t WE ARE SUCCESSFUL IN RESTORING ECONOMIC GROWTH WITHOUT REFUELING INFLATION, WE WILL HAVE SERVED NOT ONLY OURSELVES BUT THE REST OF THE WORLD AS WELL. FORTUNATELY, THERE ARE NOW SOLID GROUNDS FOR BELIEVING THAT THE WORST OF THE RECESSION IS ALREADY BEHIND US IN THE UNITED STATES. LET ME DWELL on THIS FOR A FEW MOMENTS. IN MY VIEW, TWO FACTORS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT IN BRINGING US CLOSE TO THE END OF OUR RECESSION. ONE HAS BEEN THE RAPID LIQUIDATION OF INVENTORIES, WHICH REACHED A RECORD LEVEL IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS LIQUIDATION PROCESS IS THAT MANY INDUSTRIES SALES ARE MOVING AHEAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN PRODUCTION. AS THAT CONTINUES, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND. AND AS THAT HAPPENS, OF COURSE, WE WILL BE ENTERING UPON THE RECOVERY. • - 6THE INVENTORY LIQUIDATION REFLECTS ANOTHER FACTOR OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE: THE TURNAROUND IN OUR RETAIL SALES. EVEN APART FROM THE INFLUENCE OF PRICE REBATES ON AUTO SALES, RETAIL SALES ROSE BY A TOTAL OF 3 PERCENT IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR AND APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED A BIT FURTHER IN APRIL. 4 " THERE WAS ALSO ENCOURAGING NEWS IN THE MOST RECENT EMPLOYMENT FIGURES RELEASED BY THE GOVERNMENT. WHILE THE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE TO 8.9 PERCENT, THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE POST-WAR PERIOD, THE INCREASE WAS A SMALL ONE AND — MORE IMPORTANTLY -- APRIL ALSO BROUGHT THE FIRST INCREASE IN OVERALL EMPLOYMENT IN HALF A YEAR. THERE'HAS ALSO BEEN A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF JOB LAYOFFS, WHICH HAS A CRUCIAL IMPACT NOT ONLY ON UNEMPLOYMENT BUT ALSO UPON PUBLIC CONFIDENCE. :,. E M THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER SIGNS THAT ARE ALSO POINTING IN THE DIRECTION OF RECOVERY: -- THE REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF INFLATION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN REAL EARNINGS, WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE CONSUMER PURCHASING. 4 » -- AS MONETARY POLICY HAS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE AND INFLATION HAS SUBSIDED, SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES HAVE FALLEN AND FUNDS HAVE BEGUN FLOWING BACK INTO THE THRIFT INSTITUTIONS. THIS SETS THE NECESSARY PRECONDITION FOR AN UPTURN IN THE HARD-HIT HOUSING INDUSTRY. -- SURVEYS ALREADY SHOW THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING. -- AND THERE HAS BEEN A DEFINITE AIR OF OPTIMISM IN THE STOCK MARKET, WHERE THE DOW JONES HAS RISEN BY SOME 35 PERCENT SINCE ITS LOW POINT IN 1974. - 8IN ADDITION TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO TAKEN SEVERAL POSITIVE STEPS TO ASSIST THE FORCES OF RECOVERY. As I MENTIONED, THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS ALREADY EASED MONETARY CONDITIONS SUBSTANTIALLY AND BOARD CHAIRMAN ARTHUR BURNS HAS INDICATED THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RECOVERY WHILE AVOIDING EXCESSIVE STIMULATION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CONGRESS HAS PASSED AND THE PRESIDENT HAS SIGNED THE BIGGEST TAX CUT IN OUR HISTORY. COMBINED WITH A LARGE FEDERAL DEFICIT, THE TAX CUT WILL GIVE A STRONG BOOST TO THE ECONOMY, SUCH CHEERFUL ECONOMIC NEWS IN THE UNITED STATES IS AS WELCOME AS A SPRING RAIN AFTER A LONG DROUGHT. IN DISCUSSING IT, HOWEVER, I DO NOT MEAN TO SAY THAT PROSPER IS AT HAND. CERTAINLY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE NOT GOING TO BE A STEADY FLOOD OF L c ! !i' -9- / ' L^ GOOD NEWS. ECONOMIC POLICY FACES ENORMOUSLY DIFFICULT CHALLENGES IN THE MONTHS AND YEARS AHEAD. OUR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD PEAK SOON, BUT EVEN IF THE RECOVERY PROVES TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY VIGOROUS, UNEMPLOYMENT WILL REMAIN UNACCEPTABLY HIGH FOR MONTHS TO COME. FURTHERMORE, it " INFLATION IS NOT GOING TO DISAPPEAR QUICKLY OR EASILY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS AGAINST INFLATION, BUT WE MUST,REMAIN VIGILENT BECAUSE IT REMAINS OUR MOST SERIOUS LONG-TERM ECONOMIC CHALLENGE. SIMILARLY, OUR PROBLEM OF EXCESSIVE DEPENDENCE ON INSECURE AND OVERPRICED SOURCES OF FOREIGN OIL WILL REMAIN SERIOUS FOR SEVERAL YEARS EVEN IF WE TAKE IMMEDIATE CORRECTIVE ACTION AT HOME — AND SO FAR, THAT ACTION HAS BEEN PAINFULLY SLOW IN COMING, STILL ANOTHER LONG-TERM CHALLENGE OF IMMENSE IMPORTANCE IN THE UNITED STATES IS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO TRIPLE OUR LEVELS OF CAPITAL - 10 INVESTMENT AS WE MUST DO IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE OUR MOST FUNDAMENTAL GOALS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CHALLENGES WE FACE ARE THUS FORMIDABLE. OUR BASIC OBJECTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS IS TO ENSURE THAT OUR RECOVERY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT BUT DOES NOT PROCEED SO RAPIDLY THAT WE SACRIFICE THE PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED, DURABLE PROGRESS. V ABOVE ALL, WE MUST RESIST THE TEMPTATIONS OF HIGHLY STIMULATIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. THE TAX REDUCTION THAT WAS ENACTED, ALONG WITH THE FEDERAL DEFICITS, WILL PROVIDE A STRONG BOOST TO THE ECONOMY. AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF EXPENSIVE FEDERAL SPENDING PROGRAMS ARE NOW BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED IN OUR CONGRESS ON THE THEORY THAT THEY ARE NEEDED TO SPEED UP THE RECOVERY. MOST OFTEN, THE EFFECTS OF NEW SPENDING PROGRAMS ARE NOT FELT FOR A YEAR TO 18 MONTHS. PROGRAMS ENACTED IN -ii- c h d' COMING MONTHS WOULD NOT PUMP STIMULUS INTO THE ECONOMY UNTIL WE ARE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD FULL CAPACITY, AND THEY WOULD THUS CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEW INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. A SECOND DANGER OF OVERSIZED GOVERNMENT DEFICITS WOULD ARISE IN OUR PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS. FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, I 4 - HAVE BEEN EMPHASIZING THAT DEFICITS IN THE RANGE OF $50 TO $60 BILLION -- THE RANGE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION HAS SET AS A CEILING -- WILL CREATE SOME STRAINS IN OUR FINANCIAL MARKETS, BUT THEY SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE, HOWEVER,- DEFICITS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF $80 TO $100 BILLION WOULD-BE CLEARLY EXCESSIVE AND DANGEROUS. THE DANGER WOULD ARISE NOT THIS YEAR DURING A PERIOD OF ECONOMIC SLACK BUT NEXT YEAR WHEN THE RECOVERY TAKES HOLD AND WE HAVE A RISING TIDE OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC DEMANDS FOR FUNDS. IT IS WELL TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE OUR RECESSION - 12 IS 75 PERCENT OVER, THE BORROWING TO FINANCE OUR DEFICITS IS ONLY 25 PERCENT COMPLETED. BASED ON THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGET AND CURRENT ENACTMENTS, WE EXPECT THAT THE TREASURY WILL NEED TO BORROW SOME $75 BILLION IN FUNDS THIS CALENDAR YEAR -- A BILLION AND A HALF DOLLARS A WEEK. IN 1976, IF THE OUTLAY TOTALS PROJECTED'ON OUR CONGRESS ARE AN ACCURATE PROJECTION AND I_F THERE IS AN EXTENSION OF MAJOR TAX PROVISIONS, OUR BORROWING NEEDS COULD REACH $84 BILLION. I OFTEN HEAR THAT WE SHOULD IGNORE THE CONSEQUENCE OF INFLATIONARY POLICIES UNTIL NEXT YEAR OR THEREAFTER. I CANNOT IMAGINE A MORE SHORT-SIGHTED APPROACH: BY NEXT YEAR, IT MIGHT BE TOO LATE. THE DECISIONS THAT WILL DETERMINE THE SHAPE OF OUR ECONOMY TOMORROW ARE BEING MADE IN WASHINGTON TODAY, AND WE SHOULD NEVER FORGET THAT. THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF HUGE FEDERAL DEMAND DURING A PERIOD OF RECOVERY WOULD DEPEND, OF COURSE, UPON THE MONETARY POLICY OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE. INDEED, MONETARY 91 POLICY IS GOING TO BE A CRITICAL ELEMENT IN SHAPING OUR ECONOMIC PROSPECTS BOTH NOW AND IN THE FUTURE. IF OVERSIZED FEDERAL DEFICITS CREATE STRONG COMPETITION FOR FUNDS AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE PURSUES A MODERATE POLICY, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WOULD DRIVE UP INTEREST RATES AND ABORT THE PROCESS OF RECOVERY. JHE OTHER ALTERNATIVE IS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MIGHT SEEK TO ACCOMODATE THE ENORMOUS BORROWING REQUIREMENTS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AS WELL AS THOSE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR, BY CREATING A MORE RAPID GROWTH IN MONEY AND CREDIT. THAT MIGHT POSTPONE THE ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE RECOVERY FOR PERHAPS A YEAR OR TWO, BUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT ACTION WOULD SOON CATCH UP WITH US. IN THE FORM OF A REACCELERATED INFLATION FOLLOWED BY A NEW RECESSION AND HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT. BOTH ALTERNATIVES, THEN, WOULD HAVE HIGHLY UNDESIRABLE RESULTS, AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT WE WOULD BE FAR WISER TO AVOID POLICY DECISIONS WHICH WOULD FORCE US TO MAKE SUCH A HoBSON's CHOICE. - 14 LET ME EMPHASIZE THAT I AM NOT PREDICTING THAT THESE EVENTS WILL TRANSPIRE; RATHER, I AM WARNING OF THE POSSIELE RESULTS OF MISGUIDED FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. AND LET ME ALSO ADD THAT I HAVE BEEN HEARTENED BY THE RECENT DEBATES ON THIS MATTER WITHIN THE'CONGRESS AND BY THE EFFORTS TO IMDOSE A CEILING ON THE SIZE OF OUR DEFICITS. THE 4 " STEPS TAKEN BY THE CONGRESS IN RECENT DAYS REFLECT A GROWING AWARENESS IN OUR COUNTRY OF THE NEED FOR FISCAL AND MONETARY RESPONSIBILITY, AND I AM INCREASINGLY HOPEFUL THAT THIS AWARENESS WILL BE TRANSLATED INTO SOUND POLICIES FOR THE FUTURE. THE PATTERN OF RECENT PROGRESS IN THE1 UNITED STATES IN COMBATING THE FORCES OF RECESSION AND INFLATION HAVE BEEN MIRRORED BY PROGRESS IN SEVERAL OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES. ONE OF THE MEETINGS THAT I RECENTLY ATTENDED WAS IN - 15 - ft; PARIS WHERE I CONFERRED WITH THE FINANCE MINISTERS FROM THE OECD NATIONS. IT WAS THE NEAR UNANIMOUS VIEW AMONG THOSE MINISTERS THAT THE WESTERN WORLD WAS NEARING THE END OF THE CURRENT RECESSIONARY CYCLE, I MUST ALSO TELL YOU, HOWEVER, THAT THERE WAS ALSO SOME CONCERN THERE ABOUT THE POSSIBLE RESURGENCE OF INFLATION. . T-HUS, ALL OF US FACE THE PROBLEM OF RESTORING ECONOMIC GROWTH WITHOUT SETTING OFF A NEW ROUND OF INFLATION. ADAPTING TO THE ENERGY SHOCK AS I NOTED EARLIER, THE SECOND MAJOR CHALLENGE TO FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY IS TO ADJUST TO RADICALLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIDESPREAD ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THE GENERAL NEED TO CONSERVE ENERGY AND THE PARTICULAR NEED TO REDUCE PETROLEUM IMPORTS, IT IS DIFFICULT TO CHANGE - 16 COMFORTABLE HABITS DEVELOPED DURING DECADES OF CHEAP OIL. THE EASIEST WAY IS TO ACCEDE TO A MANANA PHILOSOPHY, BUT STRONG ENERGY MEASURES HAVE NOW BECOME IMPERATIVE. NEITHER WE NOR OTHER MAJOR CONSUMER NATIONS CAN LONG AFFORD THE OUTFLOW OF FUNDS AND THE THREAT TO OUR NATIONAL SECURITY THAT IS INHERENT IN AN OVER DEPENDENCE UPON FOREIGN SOURCES OF OIL. MOREOVER, THE DEMONSTRABLE EFFECTS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY UPON THE OPEC CARTEL SHOULD GIVE US HEART TO REDOUBLE OUR EFFORTS. THIS CARTEL, LIKE ALL OTHERS -IN THE PAST, MUST RESPOND TO THE PRESSURES OF THE MARKETPLACE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS PROCESS AT WORK: BECAUSE OF REDUCED WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION, OPEC HAS NOW SHUT IN A THIRD OF ITS PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY — OVER 12 MILLION BARRELS A DAY ~ IN ORDER TO HOLD THE LINE ON PRICES. WlTHIN A FEW MONTHS, OPEC'S SHUT-IN CAPACITY MAY RISE TO 15 - 16 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL A DAY. FURTHERMORE, - 17 - f DURING THE LAST THREE YEARS, AS THE OPEC MEMBERS RECOGNIZE, SIGNIFICANT DISCOVERIES OF OIL HAVE BEEN MADE IN SOME 25 30 AREAS OF THE WORLD OUTSIDE.OPEC — UNCOVERING RESERVES ESTIMATED AT ROUGHLY 35 BILLION BARRELS, THESE FIELDS COULD PRODUCE SOME 8 MILLION ADDITIONAL BARRELS A DAY BY THE EARLY 1980S, AND THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE NEW PRODUCTION COMING FROM THE UNITED STATES, THE SOVIET UNION, AND THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA. . AS THESE PRESSURES HAVE DEVELOPED, SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE CARTEL HAVE BEGUN SHAVING PRICES AND THE FIRST CRACKS HAVE BEGUN TO APPEAR IN THE OPEC WALL. • AN IMPORTANT FIRST STEP IN REDUCING DEPENDENCE ON OPEC WAS TAKEN LAST FALL WHEN THE MAJOR CONSUMER NATIONS - 18 AGREED ON A PROGRAM TO LIMIT THEIR VULNERABILITY DURING EMERGENCIES CREATED BY SUPPLY INTERRUPTIONS. THAT AGREEMENT COMMITS MEMBER NATIONS TO BUILD A COMMON LEVEL OF EMERGENCY SUPPLIES THAT WOULD ALLOW THEM TO SURVIVE FOR DESIGNATED PERIODS, TO DEVLOP STAND-BY EMERGENCY CONSERVATION PROGRAMS THAT COULD BE IMPOSED IN THE EVENT OF ANOTHER EMBARGO, AND -- IN THE EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY ~ TO ALLOCATE AVAILABLE OIL IN A WAY THAT SPREADS SHORTFALLS AMONG ALL PARTICIPATING NATIONS. IN MOST CONSUMER NATIONS, DEMAND FOR OIL HAS EITHER LEVELED OFF OR FALLED DUE TO HIGHER PRICES, CONSERVATION, AND THE EFFECTS OF RECESSION. . IT IS PERHAPS IN THE UNITED STATES THAT THE LARGEST PROBLEMS REMAIN. THERE SEEMS TO BE A STUBBORN DETERMINATION TO HOLD DOWN DOMESTIC OIL PRICES AS IF IT WOULD BE A NATIONAL TRAUMA TO PAY MORE THAN 60£ PER GALLON FOR GAS, EVEN THOUGH EUROPEANS ARE ALREADY PAYING TWO OR THREE TIMES THAT MUCH. EE THIS FOOT-DRAGGING HELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY GERMANY, RELYING ON THE PRICE-MECHANISM, CUT BACK ITS OIL CONSUMPTION 10 PERCENT LAST YEAR, AND FRANCE, BY LIMITING ITS IMPORTS, CUT CONSUMPTION BY 14 PERCENT, WHILE THE UNITED STATES REDUCED ITS CONSUMPTION BY ONLY 3 PERCENT. WHILE DISAGREEMENTS CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH, WE ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE CONGRESS AND WE REMAIN HOPEFUL THAT A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY CAN BE HAMMERED OUT. IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, IF THE CONGRESS DOES NOT ACT SOON, THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ACT DECISIVELY. ADAPTING TRADF AND PAYMENT POLICIES THE THIRD CHALLENGE TO OUR FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY -AND ONE THAT I WILL DISCUSS ONLY BRIEFLY BECAUSE IT WILL BE ADDRESSED BY SO MANY OTHER SPEAKERS AT THIS SEMINAR -"IS TO BOLSTER OUR INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS SYSTEM SO THAT IT CAN ACCOMODATE THE MASSIVE FLOWS OF FUNDS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND ENCOURAGE THE PRODUCTION OF FOOD AND OTHER RAW MATERIALS ON TERMS THAT ARE ACCEPTABLE TO PRODUCERS AND - 20 THE SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS PATTERNS THAT RESULTED LAST YEAR FROM THE SHARP INCREASE IN OIL PRICES WAS THE LARGEST AND MOST ABRUPT THAT THE WORLD HAS EVER' EXPERIENCED. ALTHOUGH ORIGINAL PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE EVENTUAL ACCUMULATIONS OF FUNDS BY THE OPEC NATIONS HAVE BEEN CON" SIDERABLY REDUCED, THESE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO POSE MAJOR PROBLEMS WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGE IS TO ENSURE THAT LARGE TRADING DEFICITS IN THE INDUSTRIAL NATIONS DO NOT LEAD THE WORLD INTO A SPIRAL OF RESTRICTIVE TRADE MEASURES. SO FAR, WE HAVE ACHIEVED A LARGE MEASURE OF SUCCESS IN THIS REGARD. LAST YEAR, FOR INSTANCE, THE OECD NATIONS PLEDGED TO ABSTAIN FROM RESTRICTIVE TRADE ACTIONS AND ARTIFICAL AIDS TO EXPORTS. - 21V LOOKING BEYOND THIS ISSUE., IT IS IMPORTANT TO MOVE NOW TOWARD FURTHER LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE THROUGH MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS. FOR BOTH DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, THE RAPID GROWTH OF TRADE EMANATING FROM PROGRESSIVE LIBERALIZATIONS OF TRADE SINCE WORLD WAR II HAS BEEN A POWERFUL ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. TRADE NEGOTIATIONS HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE TIMELY, AND THE UNITED STATES WILL PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE IN SEEKING A LIBERAL, EXPANDED WORLD ORDER FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENT. ANOTHER TASK FACING US TODAY IS TO ENSURE THAT OUR FINANCING MECHANISMS ARE ADEQUATE TO COPE WITH THE ALTERED PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS. SO FAR, WE HAVE RELIED PRIMARILY UPON PRIVATE FINANCING CHANNELS, AND THEY HAVE PROVED TO BE BOTH FLEXIBLE AND EFFECTIVE. THE PRIVATE MARKETS AND NEWLY CREATED FINANCING MECHANISM HAVE SERVED US WELL DURING THE PAST YEAR. - 22 NEVERTHELESS, WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE TIME HAS COME TO SUPPLEMENT EXISTING ARRANGEMENTS WITH AN INSURANCE MECHANISM THAT WILL PROVIDE THE SYSTEM WITH THE ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT IT NEEDS. TO THIS END, WHILE I WAS IN PARIS, I AND THE OTHER OECD FINANCE MINISTERS SIGNED AN AGREEMENT SETTING UP A $25 BILLION SAFETY NET, TO BE AVAILABLE TO PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES WHICH COOPERATE IN ENERGY AND OTHER ECONOMIC POLICIES. THIS AGREEMENT-WILL SOON BE SUBMITTED TO THE CONGRESS FOR APPROVAL. LIKE AN INSURANCE POLICY, WE HOPE THAT THIS NEW SUPPORT FUND WILL NEVER BE NEEDED, BUT PRUDENCE DEMANDS THAT WE HAVE IT AVAILABLE JUST IN CASE. THE REACTION OF THE CONGRESS TO THIS PROPOSAL WILL INEVITABLY BE REGARDED BY THE REST OF THE WORLD AS A MAJOR INDICATION OF OUR COMMITMENT TO SOLVING THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS IN A COOPERATIVE MANNER. H WE BELIEVE THAT THE ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO ADAPT TO THE MASSIVE CAPITAL FLOWS SO FAR HAS UNDOUBTEDLY BEEN ENHANCED BY THE WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES. BECAUSE COUNTRIES HAVE NOT SOUGHT TO MAINTAIN RIGIDLY FIXED RATES OF EXCHANGE FOR THEIR CURRENCIES, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MORE FLEXIBLE AND COULD AVOID THE HUGE AND DESTABILIZING RESERVE MOVEMENTS AND EXCHANGE MARKET CRISES OF EARLIER YEARS. MOREOVER, ON A TRADE WEIGHTED BASIS VIS-A-VIS MAJOR U.S. TRADING PARTNERS, THE DOLLAR HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST STABLE OF THE MAJOR CURRENCIES. OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, IT FLUCTUATED WITH IF A RANGE OF 10 PERCENT AND NOW, HAVING RISEN OVER 2 PERCENT SINCE LAST FEBRUARY, STANDS AT APPROXIMATELY THE LEVEL OF TWO YEARS AGO, WHEN GENERALIZED FLOATING WAS INITIATED. AMONG THE MAJOR CURRENCIES, ONLY THE CANADIAN DOLLAR HAS SHOWN LESS FLUCTUATION. - 24 - I ALSO WANT TO EMPHASIZE HERE, AS I HAVE IN OTHER FORUMS, THAT WE WELCOME FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FROM OPEC NATIONS. So LONG AS FOREIGN NATIONS DO NOT SEEK TO CONTROL INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 4 THAT ARE VITAL TO OUR NATIONAL SECURITY -- AND FOR THAT PURPOSE WE HAVE MANY SAFEGUARDS BUILT INTO THE SYSTEM ~ WE SUPPORT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN OPEN DOOR ON INVESTMENTS. THE UNITED STATES, AFTER ALL, IS THE LARGEST FOREIGN INVESTOR IN THE WORLD WITH OVER $105 BILLION IN BOOK VALUE INVESTED ABROAD — SEVERAL TIMES MORE THAN DIRECT INVESTMENTS HERE BY OTHER COUNTRIES.' //0 WITH REGARD TO THE FINAL ISSUE THAT I WANT TO ADDRESS TODAY — U.S. COMMODITY POLICY — MANY OF YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED THAT COMMODITY PRICES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY DURING THE PAST YEAR AFTER RISING TO RECORD LEVELS IN EARLY 1974. DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST COMMODITY PRICES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE THE PRE-1972 LEVELS'," MANY OF THE PRIMARY PRODUCING COUNTRIES ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT OF FALLING PRICES ON THEIR BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND THE SERIOUS THREAT SUCH PRICES POSE TO THEIR LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT PLANS. THE DECLINING PRICES OF THE PRIMARY PRODUCTS WHICH THEY EXPORT HAVE NOT BEEN MATCHED BY DECREASES IN PRICES OF THEIR IMPORTS SUCH AS OIL AND MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS. IN SEVERAL RECENT INTERNATIONAL FORUMS, THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES HAVE SOUGHT A REFORM AND RESTRUCTURING OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM WHICH WOULD PERMIT THEM TO INCREASE THEIR SHARE IN THE WORLD WEALTH AND PREVENT DETERIORATION - 26 IN THEIR TRADE BALANCES. THIS ISSUE REACHED A CLIMAX AT THE RECENT PARIS MEETING OF OIL PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS WHERE THE OPEC NATIONS STEADFASTLY DEMANDED THAT OTHER COMMODITY PROBLEMS BESIDES OIL SHOULD BE ADDED TO THE AGENDA. 4 " THE U.S. AND OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS ARE SENSITIVE TO THESE CONCERNS/ AND THEY ARE CURRENTLY STUDYING METHODS THAT COULD ADDRESS THEM PROPERLY. THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT IS CHAIRING AN INTER-AGENCY TASK FORCE, UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE ECONOMIC POLICY BOARD AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, TO STUDY THE PROBLEM AND TO FORMULATE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR U.S. COMMODITY POLICY. OUR GENERAL POLICY APPROACH IS THAT WE ARE WILLING TO CONTINUE DISCUSSING PROPOSALS FOR INDIVIDUAL COMMODITY ARRANGEMENTS ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS AND WE ARE ALSO WILLING TO CONSIDER OTHER ALTERNATIVES. CQHCJLUS.LfiW_ LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, IN REVIEWING THE FULL SWEEP OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, IT IS APPARENT THAT WE HAVE REACHED ANOTHER CRITICAL JUNCTURE IN OUR RELATIONS ABROAD. MANY OF THE ECONOMIC ARRANGEMENTS FORGED IN THE AFTERMATH OF WORLD WAR II HAVE SERVED US EXTREMELY WELL, BUT THEY ARE NO LONGER WHOLLY ADEQUATE TO MEET TODAY'S NEEDS. WE HAVE EMERGED INTO A NEW, MORE COMPLICATED WORLD, AND WE NOW FACE THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION OF WHETHER WE WILL GO FORWARD WITH NEWS FORMS OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND BUILD A MORE STABLE WORLD ORDER OR WHETHER WE WILL RETREAT INTO A NEW ISOLATIONISM. i BECAUSE INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN NATIONS HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED FROM THEORY INTO REALITY, I BELIVE THAT THE MUTUAL PROSPERITY NOW DEPENDS MORE HEAVILY THAN EVER BEFORE ON MUTUAL COOPERATION. AND IT IS EQUALLY CLEAR, I BELIEVE, THAT THE WORLD WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC PROGRESS ONLY IF AMERICA IS AN ACTIVE, - 23 DYNAMIC PARTNER — ECONOMICALLY STRONG AT HOME AND RESOLUTE ABROAD. IN COMING MONTHS, THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER LEADING MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION WILL BE SPENDING A MAJOR PORTION OF OUR TIME IN PROMOTING GREATER INTERNATIONAL 4 " COOPERATION ON ECONOMIC ISSUES. WE RECOGNIZE THIS AS ANOTHER TIME OF TESTING FOR THE- UNITED STATES. AMERICANS HAVE ALWAYS RISEN TO MEET NEW CHALLENGES IN THE PAST, AND WE ARE CONFIDENT OF OUR SUCCESS IN THE FUTURE, BUT TO ACHIEVE THAT SUCCESS WE MUST ONCE AGAIN COUNT UPON THE HELP AND SUPPORT OF LEADING CITIZENS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR — MEN AND WOMEN I I SUCH AS YOU WHO ARE DEVOTED TO AN OUTWARD-LOOKING, STRONG FOREIGN POLICY. I URGE YOU TODAY TO JOIN US IN THAT CAUSE. THANK YOU. # # tr a U.S.-ISRAEL JOINT COMMITTEE FOR INVESTMENT AND TRADE WASHINGTON, D.C. May 13, 1975 JOINT STATEMENT The U.S.-Israel Joint Committee for Investment and Trade, established during the July 1974 visit to Israel of U.S. Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon, met in Washington, D.C. on May 12-13, 1975- The meeting was chaired jointly by Secretary Simon and Minister of Finance Yehoshua Rabinowitz. Other senior officials of the two governments also participated. (A list of senior participants is attached.) The meeting, which continued the dialogue established during Secretary Simon's visit to Israel in July 1974, underscored the warm and friendly relationship between the countries and helped broaden the ties between them. During the meeting, the Israeli members of the Joint Committee briefed the U.S. Delegation on the current economic situation in Israel, Israel's development plans and its economic forecasts. The U.S. members reviewed current economic developments in the U.S. and explained recent policy proposals aimed at achieving greater stability within the U.S. economy. Mr. Avraham Agmon, Director General of the Ministry of Finance, and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury WST301 i - 2 - Gerald L. Parsky briefed the Joint Committee on the work of the Subcommittees on Capital Investment, Trade, Raw Materials, and Research and Development, which had met in Washington in September 1974 and in Jerusalem in October 1974. Secretary Simon and Minister Rabinowitz expressed their satisfaction with the work of the four joint subcommittees, which served as a basis for the Committee's deliberations. At the conclusion of the Committee's session the Minister of Finance and the Secretary of the Treasury, as co-chairmen, announced their agreement on a number of principles and programs aimed at expanding economic cooperation between the two countries particularly by increasing the opportunities for trade and investment and for cooperation in research and development. The Committee agreed that measures designed to expand 4* cooperation between Israel and the United States are consistent with both countries' deep interest in achieving a just and lasting peace in the Middle East. The Committee felt that its deliberations and conclusions should increase and broaden the interest of U.S. private business enterprises in participating in Israel's economic development and in seeking out new opportunities to expand the economic relationship between the U.S. and Israel. I." Economic Cooperation The Israeli members described the favorable environmc for foreign investment in Israel and reaffirmed their interest in U.S. investments in Israel and in acquiring U.S. technology through U.S. business participation in industrial projects in Israel. The U.S. recognized the importance of U.S. and other foreign investment to the economic growth of Israel and pointed to a number of additional factors that could further improve the investment climate. The U.S. and Israel recognized that investment in Israel serves the common interest of the U.S. and Israel. The Joint Business Council which the parties agreed to seek to establish will be broadly based and will be charged with enhancing the participation of U.S. business in Israel's industrial development. The Council would identify projects which appear feasible for U.S. private sector investments and joint ventures, arrange business symposia and visits in both countries, and participate with other interested/ parties in disseminating information on business opportunities in both countries. The members of the Committee reaffirmed the policies of their governments to oppose restrictive trade practices or boycotts against countries friendly to either. The U.S. side noted President Ford's February 26 statement that religious or ethnic discrimination is totally contrary to the American tradition and has no place in the free commerce of the United States. II. Treaty to Avoid Double Taxation Minister Rabinowitz and Secretary Simon initialed today a treaty on the avoidance of double taxation. The treaty recognizes Israeli compulsory loans as creditable taxes for U.S.- income tax purposes and incorporates a new rule on the treatment of Israel Government grants to U.S. investors. Both parties agreed to present the treaty for ratification, according to each country's constitutional procedures, as soon as possible. The Committee members expressed their confidence that the tax convention initialed by the Ministers would contribute toward reducing obstacles to trade and investment. III. Encouragement of Investment The Joint Committee noted with satisfaction efforts by the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) to promote investment ties between the two countries. The Committee noted that OPIC is prepared: (a) to guarantee loans to qualified investment projects in Israel involving U.S. companies, or their subsidiaries; (b) to participate, where appropriate, in financing industrial projects in Israel sponsored by U.S. investors through purchase of subordinated convertible debentures issued by such enterprises in Israel; and (c) to include in its publications information about investment opportunities in Israel, incentives, economic data, and other information of interest to potential investors. The U..S. also indicated its willingness to use its other resources, particularly the facilities of the Department of Commerce, to facilitate investments in Israel, and among other things to publicize within the U.S. business community information on investment opportunities in Israel, specific incentives offered by the Government of Israel, and other forms of assistance to investors available from both U.S. Government agencies and Israeli authorities. The Department of Commerce will also organize, seminars in the United States and sponsor missions to Israel of prominent U.S. industrialists and businessmen. The promotion of trade missions will be a major target. IV. Development of Trade The Joint Committee noted the growth of trade between the two countircs and emphasized the importance of a continued increase in mutual trade opportunities. The - 6 - Committee agreed on the desirability of further promoting trade between the two countries by expanding the dissemination of information on bilateral trade opportunities through the programs of the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Israel Ministry of Commerce and Industry, and through national s and binational organizations. The Israeli members of the Committee noted with appreciation the assistance accorded to Israel through the use of the facilities of the Export-Import Bank. The Committee expressed its satisfaction with the harmonious relationship Eximbank has enjoyed with Israel since the founding of the State, and Israel's excellent record in meeting its obligations. The U.S. members reaffirmed Eximbank1s current policy of providing financing for U.S. exports to Israel within the limits permitted by the Bank's resources. The U.S. members provided clarification of Eximbank policies on other issues of particular concern to Israel. It was agreed that the facilities of the Eximbank will continue to be available and active in financing U.S. exports to Israel. The U.S. delegation noted that Eximbank is also prepared to guarantee to a U.S. lessor payments by Israeli lessees for U.S. equipment provided to Israel under leasing agreements. 9.-~ The Committee welcomed passage by the U.S. Congress of the Trade Act of 1974 which provides the basis for trade negotiations between the United States and Israel in the context of the multilateral trade negotiations (MTN). The parties noted that U.S. authority under the Act allows the reduction to zero of most duties of 5 percent or less and reduction of up to 60 percent on most higher duties. Israel's negotiating authority also will be sufficient to allow the elimination or reduction of tariffs on a range of items of interest to U.S. suppliers. During the Committee sessions, an exchange of views occurred on tariff and nontariff barriers which were likely to be negotiated in the MTN. The Committee discussed the provisions of the Act concerning the Generalized System of Preferences and agreed that the two governments will hold early consultations with the view of extending such preferences to Israel, consistent with the provisions of the Act. Israel has been approved as a supplier of AID-financed commodities and services and as a supplier for off-shore procurement of Department of Defense (DOD); Israel will be informed about further opportunites. A procedure has been developed to assist Israeli producers to sell products and spare parts to DOD suppliers, - 8 - and DOD will facilitate such purchases and take measures to assure Israeli producers that they will get full and fair consideration in bidding for DOD procurement contracts within opportunities permitted under present legislation. The Committee agreed that Government officials of both parties engaged in promotion of foreign trade, including the commercial attaches of both countries will meet from time to time to discuss in detail ways and means to generate export promotion activities of all kinds to be organized in both countries, review the effectiveness of current promotion activities and recommend new promotion programs where needed. The Committee took note of the U.S. Department of Commerce's planned "Intellectual Assets" Trade Mission, to be composed of U.S. executives interested in commercial, Trade and technology transfer. V. Supply and Storage of Raw Materials ' The members of the Committee recognized the special circumstances that characterize Israel's trade, particularly in food and feedgrains, and the importance of assuring Israel's access to raw materials. In order to meet Israel's special needs and circumstances to the maximum extent feasible, the Department of Commerce will use its good i\yt offices as appropriate to facilitate Israeli purchases of essential raw materials from U.S. private sources. The Israeli Government will send a mission to acquaint itself with these sources, and discuss contingent plans to assure supply. The Government of Israel will submit to the U.S. Government a detailed annual plan of its grain and raw material purchases in the United States. In the event that it becomes necessary for the USG to impose short-supply export controls, these purchase plans will enable the U.S. to give sympathetic consideration to Israel's situation and allow Israel equitable access to U.S. supplies of commodities and raw materials during the period of short supply. The Committee noted that a procedure has been developed to provide for potential purchases by Israel directly from the excess stockpile administered by the General Services Administration (GSA) . *, The Committee also took note of Israel's need to expand and modernize its food and raw material storage and warehousing facilities. The Committee recognized the need to attract investment and technology for the expansion of storage facilities and recycling plants in Israel and agreed to consider ways of facilitating these activities. To this - 10 - end, a U.S. technical team will visit Israel shortly for an on-site survey of Israel's existing storage facilities and will help develop a construction plan for additional facilities. An Israeli mission will also visit the United States to study U.S. storage technology. VI. Scientific Cooperation % The committee reviewed favorably the progress achieved under the jointly funded U.S.-Israel Binational Science Foundation which had been established in 1972. Both sides agreed that the Foundation has played a useful role, and that it would be desirable to strengthen our scientific relations. It was agreed, subject to any required legislative approval, to explore means to widen the scope of operations of the foundation and strengthen its financial basis. Negotiations to this end will take place soon and the conclusions and recommendations will be submitted to the Committee at its next session. The Committee reviewed the status of ,the proposed joint water desalting project, which has undergone a lengthy e period of evaluation. The Committee noted that the Congress has previously authorized and appropriated up to $20 million as the American share of the capital and initial operating costs of the project. Both sides agreed that it was now feasible to proceed with the arrangements for the design, construction and initial operation of a large-scale prototype plant and to negotiate a technical agreement subject to the necessary consultations with the Congress. A U.S. technical mission will visit Israel in the near future. VII. Industrial Research and Development The Committee discussed the importance of expanding industrial research and development in Israel. The United States Department of Commerce and the Israel Ministry of Commerce and Industry were designated as focal points to facilitate cooperative industrial research and development activities. These agencies will encourage direct contact between departments of the two Governments and bodies in the private sectors, such as the Industrial Research Institute and the Licensing Executive Society; will assist in defining possible cooperative ventures; and will promote the exchange of technical information between American.and Israeli organizations in the science and technology field. The Joint Committee agreed to establish a U.S.-Israel Steering Committee for Industrial Research and Development composed of representatives from interested agencies of the two Governments. This Steering Committee will outline policies and formulate priorities to enhance mutual research and development efforts with specific industrial applications. The members of the Committee agreed that the two Governments will undertake to encourage the dissemination of - 12 - information on Israel's research and development potential and capacity within professional and industrial organizations in the U.S., especially through greater exchanges of people and information between Israel and the United States. The Joint Committee also welcomed a United StatesIsrael Industrial Research and Development Council in which United States representation would be from the private sector. The Council, which would include leading R&D executives, scientists and engineers, would assist in promoting closer links between United States and Israeli enterprises in the science and technology area. The parties agreed on the desirability of developing a program to support mutually beneficial industrial research and development activities in Israel. To this end, it was agreed that the two governments would begin as early as possible discussions to formalize the program's scope and organization, and to determine the financial arrangements that the two governments would undertake in support of the program and its management. VIII. Future Meetings The members of the Committee decided that future meetings of the Joint Committee for Investment and Trade should take place at least once each year to review issues affecting the economic relationship between the two countries and to develop means of expanding economic cooperation between the two governments as well as between the people of both countries, including exploring the possibility of entering into appropriate, formal arrangements which will regulate the various joint activities and define broad principles of coopdration. The next meeting of the Joint Committee will be held in Jerusalem. The Committee announced establishment of a Joint Steering Group to oversee implementation and coordination of the measures agreed upon by the Committee. The Steering Group, which will report to the co-chairmen of the Joint Committee, has also been charged with the responsibility of investigating possible new cooperative efforts and reviewing outstanding bilateral economic issues. In addition, it will undertake preparations for future meetings of the Joint Committee. Chairman of the Israeli Chairman of the United States Delegation Delegation Yehoshua Rabinowitz William E. Simon Minister of Finance Secretary of the Treasury SENIOR PARTICIPANTS US-ISRAEL JOINT COMMITTEE FOR INVESTMENT AND TRADE May 12-13, 1975 Washington, D.C. United States . s William E. Simon, Secretary of the Treasury, Co-chairman Charles W. Robinson, Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs John Tabor, Under Secretary of Commerce Gerald L. Parsky, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Trade, Energy and Financial Resources Policy Coordination Alfred L. Atherton, Jr., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Marshall T. Mays, President, Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) Walter C. Sauer, First Vice President and Vice Chairman, Export Import Bank of the United States Israel H. E. Yehoshua Rabinowitz, Minister of Finance, Co-chairman H. E. Simcha Dinitz, Ambassador to the United States Avraham Agmon, Director-General, Ministry of Finance Dr. Moshe Mandelbaum, Director-General, Minister of Commerce and Industry General (Res.) Moshe Goren, Director, Israel Investment Authority Ze'ev Sher, Economic Minister, Embassy of Israel FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MAY 13, 1975 SECRETARY SIMON AND ISRAEL MINISTER OF FINANCE RABINOWITZ INITIAL DRAFT INCOME TAX TREATY Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon and Israel Minister of Finance Yehoshua Rabinowitz today initialed a draft income tax treaty between the United States and the State of Israel. As soon as conformed English and Hebrew translations are prepared, the formal agreement will be signed, transmitted to the United States Senate for ratification, and released. The primary objective of the convention is to promote economic and cultural relations between the two countries by removing tax barriers to the flow of goods and investment and the movement of businessmen, technicians and scholars. It provides also for nondiscriminatory tax treatment and reciprocal administrative cooperation to avoid double taxation and to prevent tax avoidance. In general, the convention is similar to the approximately twenty-five U.S. tax conventions already in effect. It provides that business profits of a resident of one Contracting State shall be exempt from tax by the other Contracting State unless such profits are attributable to a "permanent establishment", e.g., a fixed place of business, located in that other Contracting State. Generally, residents of one Contracting State are taxable by the other Contracting State on their personal services income only if physically present in that other Contracting State for more than 183 days during the taxable year. Special rules are provided for teachers, students and trainees to encourage academic and scientific exchanges. The convention also establishes the maximum rates of tax which may be assessed at the source on dividends, interest and royalty income. WS-302 (more) M 2 The convention contains several special provisions which are intended to clarify the interaction of U.S. and Israeli tax laws in particular circumstances. It specifies that for United States tax credit calculations compulsory loans to the Israeli Government will be treated as income taxes in the year incurred with appropriate adjustments to tax upon repayment. Since Israel anticipates a governmental grant program to stimulate certain types of economic development, the convention clarifies the characterization and treatment of those grants for U.S. tax purposes, generally treating qualifying grants as nontaxable capital contributions. Upon ratification by the U.S. Senate, the convention will take effect on the first day of the second month following the exchange of instruments of ratification with respect to withholding taxes, and in the year following such exchange with respect to other taxes. -0O0- <J C u Colorado's Thanks to Banks Day. Hello, I'm delighted to be here today. Colorado is my second favorite state — after New Mexico — and it has been for years. My father was born in Cripple Creek, and my husband Ed and I have a terrific summer home in Creede, where we love to fish and "get away from it all." I would be very happy if President Gerald Ford made Vail his summer White House, and moved official Washington out here when it's "springtime in the Rockies." I'm also pleased to be here because I enjoy being with bankers. I have enormous respect for your work, because you bankroll the improvements that come to America. Banks and bankers have been part of America's life since the beginning. When our pioneer ancestors moved out to Colorado and New Mexico, the cast of characters who won the West always included the cowboy, the xancher, the banker , and the dance hall girl — not necessarily Remarks by the Honorable Francine I. Neff before a group of leading Colorado bankers, Colorado Springs, Colorado on May 13, 1975. 2 -- a u follov/ing each other in that order. Your predecessors, who started the little banks needed by miners, farmers and ranchers, were a vivid part of America's early life. And today you remain a vital part of the nation because your services are basic to society and our free enterprise system. Speaking of free enterprise, you are no doubt aware that the First Women's Bank — that's the name — will open soon in New York City, as the first really womanoriented bank in the nation. I understand that about 15 other women-run banks are being organized everywhere from Maine to Oregon. I admire the courage of these bank or- ganizers in this time of investment money dry-up, and I think it's a fine example of the free enterprise spirit. I feel strongly about free enterprise, but I must admit I came to this feeling via my husband Ed. For 27 years I have been the wife of a Certified Public Accountant with his own business, and this long and close exposure to the business world gave me a strong belief in our marketplace economy. I know this belief is not shared by everyone. Most Americans fly the flag for free speech and a free press, but somehow free enterprise doesn't rate as many cheers. And yet this system gives us the greatest mass prosperity -the highest standard of living — of any major nation of the world. To bring it down to basics, I see the free enterprise story as having three "sides" or viewpoints — that of d9x the consumer, the worker, and the businessman, who, of course, is also a worker. We are all consumers, and we know very well that the consumer's viewpoint is "keep down prices on goods and services." The worker's viewpoint is also well known. Worker and labor unions very legitimately desire higher wages, job retention rights, and more fringe benefits. But where do we see the third viewpoint — the businessman — that of except perhaps on the back pages of the financial section of the newspaper? Who gives John Q. Public, and his children, an informed or sympathetic insight into what the businessman thinks or expects, or what his problems are? You can look a long time before you find a friendly, front-page story about the problems, or current low profits of corporations. These are complex problems; they are harder to understand then high prices or loss of a job, so most Americans shrug and pass them by. One result is that American adults, in an opinion poll, said they thought corporations today reaped average profits of 2 8 percent- In reality, it averages around 5 percent, and the trend is downward, with real, aftertax profits dropping some 50 percent since 1965. I became personally aware of the distorted view of profits when my son and daughter were teenagers a few years ago. I would talk before teenage groups in different schools, and I discovered that most of these boys and girls thought businessmen made a profit of around 40 (j / to 50 cents on the dollar. These were bright kids — yours and mine — but they were convinced they were right, and they all but called me a liar when I explained the facts. Economics is not a sexy subject; but I suggest there is something wrong when we fail to provide our children with a reasonable view of their own economic system. We would have better citizens, and better public servants, if our children understood the basics of their marketplace economy. Many banks are concerned about this. I spoke before the Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce earlier this mont^i, and was pleased to discover that one of their city's large banks now donates a considerable sum of money to help teenagers demonstrate the feasibility of their own ideas by starting their own businesses. It's no coincidence, I'm sure, that the state of Oklahoma requires all of its schools to include economics in their cirriculum. I have not mentioned government's role in the economy, although of course we know it holds various safety nets under both the worker and the businessman. There is, I feel, a very negative side to government, in terms of too much control and too large a slice of the GNP going for government spending. However, in the interest of time, I would like to bypass this and expand a little more fully on the question of dy financing the national debt. f | ^ It is likely that our budget this year will reach and perhaps exceed $365 billion dollars. That's a billion dollars a day, every day of the year, your government will be spending to pay its bills. Depending on what bills pass in Congress, our deficit for the coming fiscal year alone could exceed $80 billion. And this does not represent the outer limits of what may actually develop as Congress passes new legislature now under consideration. The Treasury Department will have to borrow 36 to 38 billion dollars for the first six months of calendar year 19 75, with an anticipated $40 billion for the remainder of this year. In the week just past, Treasury entered the capital markets for $5 billion in financing, which was a cutback from the planned May-June borrowing. The Treasury Department is well aware that borrowing very large sums of money may cause strains in the private financial markets. Although financial conditions normally ease during a recession, this time there may be difficulty financing our current large federal deficits for several reasons. For one, since the current recession came after a considerable period of inflation, private financing demands are heavier than usual. Further, state and local governments have had their tax receipts reduced by the recession, and they will need to borrow substantial sums. Governments at all levels — local, state and Federal will borrow an estimated 80 to 85 percent of new funds available this year, leaving less than one dollar out of every five for investment in private enterprise. Several possibilities may occur. An unhealthy compe- tition between the government and private borrowers might develop for capital funds. Or the Federal Reserve could accommodate these enormous borrowing requirements by creating a more rapid growth in money and credit. In our view, this latter step could mean a re-accelerated inflation followed by a new recession. Because our economy is currently depressed, the capital market might be able to absorb the combined needs of government and the private sector this year, and then face the real crunch next year, when the economy has gathered steam and the private sector is looking for more money. Thus, if runaway Federal spending programs, com- bined with permanent tax cuts, become a way of life in America — and the trend has been this way — then we could be in for a lot of future economic trouble in the form of an unstable economy and accelerated inflation. It isn't much fun being a financier these days, but maybe there's hope as long as we can laugh. Someone said to me the other day that the Biblical Noah was our first financier because he floated a limited company when all the rest of the world was in liquidation. Now, to change the subject somewhat, a number of people have asked me, "How strong is the American dollar internationally?" p^a, since my name is on your dollar, -7I have a very personal interest in this question. The Treasury's view is that the only long range c way to maintain a strong dollar is to put our own economic house in order. With that in mind, we believe dollar prospects are good for several reasons. First, the U.S. lead in reducing interest rates — which weakened the dollar last fall — may be ending. As the recession bottoms out, incentives for interestsensitive flows could be reversed by a further change in the international interest rate differentials. Second, while oil producers are diversifying their enormous investments, the United States will continue to receive a very significant share of these investments. And finally, our competitive position in world markets remains strong. Bad as our inflation is, it is still better than that of many other countries. Further, oil imports to the United States dropped sharply in March, for the second consecutive month, and we posted a surplus of 1.3 8 billion in our balance of trade. In the long run, of course, our national economic policy must shift towards more savings and investment and towards less government spending. We have lived too long upon the momentum of past growth. Now we must think in terms of our children's future and plan for the longer run. But despite all the problems of inflation, recession, and too much Big Government, our free enterprise system still functions and the laws of supplv and demand still operate. Further, the Ship of State still sails — the -8sky hasn't fallen — and most of us even continue to love and live and fight with our own husbands and wives. Since Ifm an official of the Big Government I've just criticized, you may wonder how I reconcile these personal feelings with my position as United States Treasurer. I can do this because my job also includes the directorship of the United States Savings Bonds Division. And I like the Savings Bonds Program for at least three reasons It is not Big Government. It is good for America. And it is good for Americans. U.S. Savings Bonds are the nongovernmental government program, because 9 7 percent of people working in the program are unpaid volunteers. Even our advertising program is donated by the National Ad Council. And I feel right at home with volunteers like yourselves, because I was one myself for many years. In fact, I was selling War Bonds way back, several wars ago, in my adolescence. Savings Bonds are also good for the country, because they are far and away the most stable part of the national debt. E and H Bonds remain outstanding, on the average, for more than six years, as compared to less than 3 years for other marketable instruments. This reduces the job and the cost of refinancing the debt. Further, Bonds are good for the individual. They teach the basic habit of thrift, and they pay a very competitive 6 percent interest. Banker Tom Prideaux of the y5 National Bank of Oregon notes that $75 invested in Savings Bonds monthly since December of 1968, is worth more than $75 invested monthly in stocks-making up Moody's industrial index. Further, there are some tax advantages; in fact, I sometimes call our bonds the working man's legal tax shelter. Savings Bonds sales in 19 74 were the highest since World War Two, and this year is even better. Here in Colorado, El Paso is one of 35 counties in your state that topped its 19 74 goals. So far this year, El Paso has attained almost 25 percent of its campaign goal, with sales of more than $1,392,000. You have terrific results like this because you are terrific volunteers. You know, sometimes at Treasury we think our nation's wealth is buried at Fort Knox. But our real wealth is very much alive; it is people like you who bring the nation something money can't buy — and that's your time and devotion for worthwhile causes. One of my personal satisfactions as United States Treasurer is the opportunity to thank men and women like you for your contributions to America — and I mean both the Savings Bonds Program and your many other worthy programs. Our country will always have problems because that's the nature of life. But with men and women like you work- ing to solve them, t