Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. "Business Inflation Expectations Virtually Unchanged" in Press Releases of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (June 19, 2015). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/8946/item/668228, accessed on January 11, 2025.

Title: Business Inflation Expectations Virtually Unchanged

Date: June 19, 2015
Page 1
image-container-0 BIE June 2015 Atlanta Fed Survey of Business Inflation Expectations For immediate release: June 19, 2015 Contact: Jean Tate, 404-498-8035 or jean.tate@atl.frb.org The year-ahead inflation expectations of businesses were 1.9 percent in June, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s most recent business inflation expectations (BIE) survey. The survey was conducted June 8–12, with 197 firms responding to questions about their business conditions, inflation outlook, and potential pricing pressures. The results are summarized below. Year-ahead inflation expectations and current conditions Respondents indicated that, on average, they expect unit costs to rise 1.9 percent over the next 12 months. Inflation uncertainty was virtually unchanged at 2.4 percent. Firms also report that, compared to this time last year, their unit costs are up 1.4 percent. Respondents’ sales levels, compared to what they consider normal conditions, declined slightly, with approximately 66 percent of respondents indicating current sales levels are at or above normal. Profit margins were virtually unchanged, with roughly 57 percent of respondents indicating their profit margins are at or above normal. Quarterly question: Percent above/below normal sales levels On average (weighed by industry share of gross domestic product), respondents indicated their unit sales gap (percentage below normal unit sales) was approximately 1.9 percent below normal compared to 2.1 percent below normal in March. On average, large firms (500 or more employees), midsize firms (100–499 employees), and small firms (fewer than 100 employees) reported a narrowing of their sales gap to 0.9 percent, 0.6 percent, and 4.2 percent below normal, respectively. Special question: Share of customers by geographic area The question assessed each panel member’s share of customers by geographic region. Respondents were asked to provide the approximate percentage of their customer base that falls into each of the following geographic areas: local, regional (southeastern United States), national (outside southeastern United States), and international. On average, panel members consider 55 percent of their customer base local, 20 percent regional, 20 percent national, and 5 percent international. See page 3 for a breakdown of the results. 1
image-container-1 ######## ######## Monthly Questions Quarterly Question -5 -15 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Sales Levels and Profit Margins Compared to Normal Times (diffusion index, 0+ = greater than normal times) Sales levels Profit margins Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey 1.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Year-over-Year Unit Cost Change (percent) Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey 2.4 1.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations and Uncertainty (percent) Uncertainty Year-ahead inflation expectations Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Mean Percent Above/Below Normal Sales Levels Large firms (500+ employees) Midsize firms (100–500 employees) Small firms (1–99 employees) All firms (weigthed by sector GDP contribution) Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey below normal above normal 2
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