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Population and Labor Force Projections
for the United States, 1960 to 1975
PO PULATIO N-226 Million

1955

1975

Bulletin No. 1242
UNITED ST A T E S DEPARTM EN T O F
J am es P . M itc h e ll. S e c r e t a r y
BUREAU OF LABOR SIAIIS1KS
Ewan Clagae. C oa a isiioN r




IA B O R




P o p u la tio n a n d L a b o r F o r c e P r o je c t io n s
fo r th e U n ite d S ta te s , 1 9 6 0 to 1 9 7 5

Bulletin No. 1242
UNITED S T A T E S D EPARTM EN T O F

LA B O R

J am es P . M itc h e ll, S e c r e t a r y
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Ewan Clague, Commissioner

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. - Price 40 cents







CONTENTS
I n t r o d u c t io n ........................
S u m m a r y ............. .................................................. ...............................................
P o p u la tio n g ro w th fr o m 1900 to 1955 .......................................................
C h a n g es in a g e c o m p o sitio n of the p o p u la tio n • . . ............................................
S om e e ffe c ts o f p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s ..............................................................................
F u tu re p o p u la tio n t r e n d s .........................................
M ethod o f p r o je c tin g p o p u la tio n ......................................................................................
P r o je c tio n s of the n u m b er now a l i v e ....................................................................
N et im m ig r a tio n .................................................................................................................
P r o je c tio n s of b i r t h s .....................................................................................
P a s t tr e n d s in the b ir th r a te • • • ................................................................ • . . .
E x p e c te d tr e n d s in b ir th r a te s ............................................................................ . . .
L a b o r fo r c e t r e n d s .................................... • • • • • • • • • • ........................................ . . .
I n c r e a s in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of w o m en ......................................
D e c lin in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of young p e r s o n s ......................... .
D e c lin in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of o ld e r m en • • • • • • • • ....................
C h a n g es in a g e c o m p o sitio n o f the la b o r f o r c e , 1900 to 1955 ..............
M ethod of p r o je c tin g the la b o r fo r c e . • • • ..............................................................
M en 2 5 -6 4 y e a r s of a g e * ....................................................................................................
M en 65 y e a r s and o v e r .......................................................................................................
Y oung p e o p l e .................................................
A d u lt w o m e n ................................................................................................................... ..
W om en 2 0 -4 4 y e a r s o f a g e ......................................................... ..............................
W om en 45 y e a r s and o v e r ................. ........................................................................
The a g e - s e x c o m p o sitio n of the fu tu re la b o r f o r c e ......................................
C h a n g es b e tw e e n 1955 and 1 9 6 5 .................................................................................
C h a n g es b e tw e e n 1965 and 1 9 7 5 ...................................................................................
T ren d s in p a r t-tim e and fu ll-tim e e m p lo y m e n t .........................................
M eth od o f p r o je c tin g p a r t-tim e and fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s ...............................
C h a n g es in the p a r t-tim e c o m p o sitio n o f the fu tu re la b o r fo r c e • • • •
I m p lic a t io n s ............................................................................

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49

C h a rts
1. B ir th r a te s , b y s e le c te d age g ro u p s and o r d e r o f b irth , 1 9 2 0 -5 5
2. P o p u la tio n and la b o r f o r c e , b y a g e and s e x , A p r il 1 9 5 7 ....................
3. P e r c e n t o f m e n and w o m en in the la b o r f o r c e , b y a g e g r o u p s,
A p r il 1920, 1950, and 1957 ..............................................................................
4 . S ch o o l e n r o llm e n t and la b o r fo r c e sta tu s o f p o p u la tio n ,
1 4 -2 4 y e a r s of a g e , b y s e x , O cto b er 1955 and p r o je c te d
1 9 6 0 -7 5 ..........................................................................................................................
5. P r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in e a c h a g e g rou p w ith
s p e c ifie d n u m b er of c h ild r e n ...................
6. P r o je c te d r a te s of la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n fo r w o m en
4 5 -6 4 y e a r s of a g e , b y m a r ita l s t a t u s .....................................................
7. P r o je c te d p e r c e n t o f m a le p o p u la tio n 65 y e a r s and o v e r
w o rk in g fu ll tim e and p a r t tim e • • • • .................................... ..................
8. P r o je c te d p e r c e n t o f fe m a le p o p u la tio n 5 5 -6 4 y e a r s old
w o rk in g fu ll-tim e and p a r t tim e. • • • • .................................................
9. P r o je c te d ch a n g e s in n u m b er o f fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e
w o r k e r s , b y a g e g ro u p s and s e x , 1 9 5 5 -6 5 and 1 9 6 5 - 7 5 . . . . .
iii




13
18
19
29
35
39
45
46
47

P age

T ab le s
1. P o p u la tio n o f the U n ited S ta te s , a c tu a l, 1 9 0 0 -5 8 , and p r o je c te d ,
1965 and 1975 ....................................................................................................................
2. B ir th s and b ir th r a te s in the U n ited S ta te s , 1 9 1 5 - 5 7 ...............................
3. A v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e in y e a r s a t s e le c t e d a g e s , b y
c o lo r and s e x , 1900, 1940, 19 5 0 , and 1955 ............................................
4 . A ge d istr ib u tio n o f the p o p u la tio n o f the U n ited S ta te s ,
1 9 0 0 -7 5 .......................................................................... . . . . . ........................................
5. T o ta l la b o r fo r c e , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 5 5 ..................... ............................................................
6. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s , b y age and s e x , A p r il 1920,
1 9 50, and 1 9 5 7 ................................................................................. ................................
7. D is tr ib u tio n o f the la b o r fo r c e , b y age and s e x , June 1900
and an n u a l a v e r a g e s , 1950 and 1955 ............................................................
8. M ed ia n y e a r s o f sc h o o l c o m p le te d b y c iv ilia n p o p u la tio n , b y
a g e , M a rch 1957 .................................................... . . . . .......................... ...............
9. P e r c e n t o f to ta l p o p u la tio n e n r o lle d in s c h o o l, b y age and
s e x , a c tu a l O cto b er 1 9 4 7 -5 6 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 - 7 5 .........................
10. P r o je c te d to ta l la b o r f o r c e , an n u al a v e r a g e s 1 9 6 0 -6 5 ...................... .
11. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r w o m en in the c iv ilia n
p o p u la tio n , b y m a r ita l sta tu s and a g e , M a rch 1957 .........................
12. T o ta l la b o r f o r c e , b y a g e and s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955
and p r o je c te d 1965 and 1975 ..............................................................................
13. H o u r s d istr ib u tio n o f p e r s o n s at w o r k , b y a g e and s e x ,
an n u a l a v e r a g e 1955 ....................................................................................................
14. P e r s o n s at w o rk b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e s ta tu s , b y s e x ,
an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 1975 . . . . . . . . . .

3

4

6
8
16
17
23
27
28
30
31
40
42
48

A p p en d ix T a b le s
A-l.

P o p u la tio n , to ta l la b o r fo r c e , and la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n
r a t e s , b y a g e and s e x , a c tu a l 1955 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5 . . . .
A -2 . P e r s o n s a t w o r k , b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e s ta tu s , b y a g e
and s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5 . . . . . .




IV

52
55

Population and Labor Force Projections in the United States
1960 to 19751

In tro d u ctio n
K n o w led g e o f fu tu re p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e g ro w th is e s s e n t ia l in
m a k in g f o r e c a s t s o f the e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l n e e d s o f our N a tio n . S o m e o f
the m o r e im p o r ta n t n e e d s th at a r e r e la te d d ir e c tly to p o p u la tio n ch an ge a re
h o u sin g , s c h o o ls , food su p p ly , tr a n sp o r ta tio n f a c ilit ie s and s o c ia l s e r v ic e s .
L a b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s in d ic a te the n u m b er o f w o r k e r s w ho w ill b e a v a ila b le
to p ro d u ce the g o o d s and s e r v ic e s r e q u ir e d b y our in c r e a s in g p o p u la tio n .
U se d in co n ju n ctio n w ith in d u s tr y and o c c u p a tio n a l tr e n d s th e y can p r o v id e
s p e c ific in fo r m a tio n on the k in d s of w o r k e r s w ho w ill be n e e d e d . Such
in fo r m a tio n is u s e fu l to m a n y d iffe r e n t g r o u p s. E d u c a to r s n eed th e s e d ata
to p la n fo r sc h o o l p r o g r a m f a c ilit ie s and te a c h e r s ; e m p lo y e r s , to p la n th e ir
p e r s o n n e l and sta ffin g p r o g r a m s; g o v e r n m e n t, to p r o m o te the tr a in in g o f
the N ation *s w o rk fo r c e ; and in d iv id u a ls, to c h a r t th e ir c a r e e r s .
M o r e o v e r , the n atu re o f the d em an d fo r g o o d s and s e r v ic e s is a ffe c te d
b y the s iz e and c o m p o sitio n o f the la b o r fo r c e b e c a u s e w o rk it s e lf c r e a t e s
d em a n d s fo r c e r ta in ty p e s o f g o o d s and s e r v ic e s . An in c r e a s e in the n u m b er
o f w o rk in g w iv e s , fo r e x a m p le , m e a n s a g r e a te r d em an d fo r d o m e s tic
s e r v ic e s , la u n d r ie s , r e sta u r a n t m e a ls , and o th er p r o d u c ts d e sig n e d to m a k e
h o u se k e e p in g e a s ie r . In a d d itio n , the added fa m ily in c o m e p r o v id e d b y w o r k ­
in g w iv e s c r e a t e s a d em an d fo r m a n y ite m s su ch a s la r g e r and b e tte r
eq u ip p ed h o u s e s , n e w e r c a r s , and n ew er fu r n itu r e than m ig h t o th e r w is e be
p o s s ib le . I n c r e a s in g n u m b e r s o f young w o r k e r s c r e a te d em a n d s fo r g o o d s
and se r v ic e s p e c u lia r fo r th is grou p su ch a s c o lle g e tr a in in g , s p e c ia l
c lo th in g , and r e c r e a tio n a l n e e d s .
T h is b u lle tin p r e s e n ts p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s to 1975
and a d e ta ile d d e s c r ip tio n of the m eth o d u se d in p r e p a r in g the la b o r fo r c e
p r o je c tio n s . T he e s t im a t e s o f the fu tu re p o p u la tio n a r e one o f the s e r ie s
p u b lish e d b y the B u r e a u o f the C e n su s in th e ir C u rren t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts ,
S e r ie s P - 2 5 , N o. 187. B e c a u s e p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n s a r e so fu n d a m en ta l
to the p r o je c tio n s of the la b o r f o r c e , an e v a lu a tio n o f p o p u la tio n tr e n d s is
a ls o in clu d ed .
1
P r e p a r e d b y S op h ia C o o p er and S tu a rt G a rfin k le of the D iv is io n of
M an p ow er and E m p lo y m e n t S t a t is t ic s , B u rea u of L a b o r S t a t is t ic s .




(i)

2

S u m m a ry
T he p r in c ip a l fin d in g s of th is stu d y o f p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e g ro w th
a r e a s fo llo w s:
1. T he p o p u la tio n of the U n ited S ta te s w ill p r o b a b ly r e a c h ab ou t 226
m illio n b y 197 5. C u rren t h ig h b ir th r a te s a r e b e in g m a in ta in e d la r g e ly
b e c a u s e w o m en a r e h a v in g th e ir f ir s t c h ild r e n so o n e r a fte r m a r r ia g e and
th e ir a d d itio n a l c h ild r e n in m o r e ra p id s u c c e s s io n than in the r e c e n t p a st.
S o m e in c r e a s e in the s iz e o f fa m ily is a ls o p a r tia lly r e s p o n s ib le fo r the
r e c e n t h ig h b ir th r a te s .
2. B e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 the la b o r fo r c e in the U n ited S ta te s is
e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b y 11 m illio n , a s s u m in g fa v o r a b le e c o n o m ic c o n d itio n s
p r e v a il. W om en 35 y e a r s of a g e and o v e r w ill a cco u n t fo r o v e r 4 m illio n of
the g ro w th a s a r e s u lt of p o p u la tio n in c r e a s e and the te n d e n c y fo r m o r e
m a r r ie d w o m en t o w o rk o u tsid e the h o m e . A n o th er 4 m illio n w ill c o m e fr o m
the in c r e a s e d n u m b e r s in the 1 4 -2 4 a g e g ro u p . T he g r e a te r n u m b er of m e n
4 5 -6 4 y e a r s of a g e in the p o p u la tio n w ill a cco u n t in la r g e p a r t fo r the r e m a in ­
ing la b o r fo r c e g ro w th . A lm o s t no ch a n g e is e x p e c te d am o n g m en 2 5 -4 4
y e a r s o f a g e , b e c a u s e b y 1965, th is a ge grou p w ill in clu d e the s m a lle r
n u m b er of p e r s o n s w ho w e r e b o rn d u rin g the d e p r e s s io n of th e 1930*s.
3. B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975, the la b o r fo r c e is e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b y
15 m illio n p e r s o n s . C o n tr a r y to the e a r lie r d eca d e the m a le p o p u la tio n in
the c e n tr a l w o rk in g a g e s (i. e . , 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s ) w ill in c r e a s e s h a r p ly , ad d in g
ab ou t 3 -1 /2 m illio n to the la b o r fo r c e . M en 45 y e a r s and o v e r w ill a c c o u n t
fo r a n o th er 2 m illio n of the g ro w th . Y oung m en and young w o m en w ill add
m o r e than 5 m illio n a s a r e s u lt o f co n tin u ed p o p u la tio n g ro w th in th e s e a g e s .
A n a d d itio n a l 2 -1 /4 m illio n of th e in c r e a s e w ill c o m e fr o m w o m en o v e r 35 and
ab ou t 1 -3 /4 m illio n fr o m w o m en 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s o f a g e .
4. The a d d itio n of th e s e la r g e n u m b e r s of young p e o p le and m a r r ie d
w o m e n to the la b o r fo r c e w ill m ea n an u n u su a lly la r g e in c r e a s e in the
n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s . A lm o s t 4 m illio n , or 35 p e r c e n t, of the
to ta l la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 w ill be p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s ,
alth o u g h th e y c o m p r is e o n ly 15 p e r c e n t o f the p r e s e n t la b o r fo r c e . B e tw e e n
1965 and 1975, the r is e in the n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s w ill be a lm o s t
3- 1 /2 m illio n , but th e y w ill r e p r e s e n t a s m a lle r p r o p o r tio n o f the to ta l
in c r e a s e than in the p r e c e d in g d e c a d e .




3
P o p u la tio n G row th fr o m 1900 to 1955
A stu d y of p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s is a n e c e s s a r y sta r tin g p o in t fo r p r o je c tin g
fu tu re m a n p o w er su p p ly , s in c e the n u m b er of w o r k e r s a v a ila b le at an y tim e
d ep en d s m a in ly on the n u m b er of p e r s o n s of w o rk in g a g e in th e p o p u la tio n .
B e c a u s e p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s e s ta b lis h the fr a m e w o r k fo r la b o r fo r c e tr e n d s ,
a b r ie f r e v ie w of the h is to r y of p o p u la tio n g ro w th in the U n ited S ta te s is
p r e s e n te d . D e s c r ib e d a ls o a r e the c h a n g e s in the s iz e and c o m p o s itio n of
the p o p u la tio n th at a r e lik e ly to a ffe c t the la b o r fo r c e in the y e a r s a h ea d .
T he p o p u la tio n of the U n ited S ta te s in c r e a s e d fr o m 76 m illio n in 1900 to
165 m illio n in 1955 (ta b le l). It g r e w m o s t r a p id ly d u rin g the f ir s t d e c a d e of
th is c e n tu r y w h en a r e c o r d n u m b er of a lm o s t 9 m illio n im m ig r a n ts e n te r e d
the c o u n tr y , but co n tin u ed to exp an d r a p id ly b e tw e e n 1910 and 1930, e v e n
though im m ig r a tio n w a s s u b s ta n tia lly c u r ta ile d . D u rin g the d e p r e s s io n of
the 1930*s a sh a rp d rop in the b ir th r a te and the v ir tu a l e lim in a tio n o f
im m ig r a tio n r e s u lte d in a r a te o f p o p u la tio n gro w th o n ly o n e -th ir d a s h ig h a s
th at fr o m 1900 to 1910.
T a b le 1. P o p u la tio n of the U n ited S ta te s , a c tu a l, 1 9 0 0 -5 8
and p r o je c te d , 1965 and 1975

P o p u la tio n (th o u sa n d s)
T o ta l
M ale
F e m a le

A v e r a g e an n u al
p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in
to ta l p o p u la tio n
P e r io d
P ercen t

7 6 , 094
9 2 ,4 0 7
1 0 6 ,4 6 6
1 2 3 ,0 7 7
1 3 2 ,1 2 2
1 5 1 ,6 8 3
165, 248
174, 064

3 8 ,8 6 9
4 7 ,5 5 4
5 4 ,2 9 5
6 2 ,2 9 7
6 6 , 352
7 5 , 530
8 2 ,0 0 1
8 6 ,2 0 7

3 7 ,2 2 6
4 4 ,8 5 2
52, 171
6 0 ,7 8 0
6 5 ,7 7 0
7 6 ,1 5 3
8 3 ,2 4 5
8 7 ,8 5 8

1 9 0 0 -1 0
1 9 1 0 -2 0
1 9 2 0 -3 0
1 9 3 0 -4 0
1 9 4 0 -5 0
1 9 5 0 -5 5
1 9 5 5 -5 8

2. 0
1 .4
1. 5
.7
1. 4
1. 7
1. 7

P r o je c te d
1965 ............................ 1 9 3 .6 4 3
1975 ............................ 2 2 5 , 552

9 5 , 562
111, 113

9 8 ,0 8 1
1 1 4 ,4 3 9

1 9 5 8 -6 5
1 9 6 5 -7 5

1. 5
1. 5

Y ea r
A ctu a l
1900 ............................
1 9 1 0 ............................
1920 ............................
1930 ............................
1940 ............................
1950 ............................
1955 ............................
1958 ............................

S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s.




4
W orld W ar II m a r k e d the en d o f the d ow n tren d in the ra te o f p o p u la tio n
g ro w th . T h ere w a s a sh a rp in c r e a s e in the b ir th r a te d u rin g the e a r ly w a r
y e a r s . M a r r ia g e s and b ir th s d e c lin e d d u rin g 1944 and 1945, w h en m illio n s
of young m e n w e r e o v e r s e a s . W ar c a s u a ltie s a ls o slo w e d the ra te o f
p o p u la tio n g ro w th . A fte r the w a r en d ed , the b ir th r a te r o s e sh a r p ly . The
num k©r b a b ie s b o rn in 1947 r e a c h e d 3. 8 m illio n c o m p a r e d w ith a y e a r ly
a v e r a g e o f 2 .4 m illio n d u rin g the p e r io d 1 9 3 5 -3 9 (ta b le 2). T he n u m b er o f
b ir th s r e m a in e d h ig h (3. 6 m illio n ) but sta b le b e tw e e n 1948 and 1950 and
th en b eg a n to clim b a g a in . M ore than 4 m illio n b a b ie s h a v e b e e n b o rn in
e v e r y y e a r b e tw e e n 1954 and 1957.
T a b le 2. B ir th s and b ir th r a te s in the
U n ited S ta te s , 1 9 1 5 -5 7




1 9 1 5 ...............................
1920 ...............................
1925 ...............................
1930 ...............................
1935 ...............................

2 ,9 6 5
2 ,9 5 0
2 ,9 0 9
2, 618
2, 377

R ate
(p er 1,000
p o p u la tio n )
2 9. 5
2 7. 7
25. 1
21. 3
18. 7

1940 ...............................
1 9 4 1 ...............................
1942 ..............................
1943 ...............................
1944 ...............................

2, 559
2 ,7 0 3
2 ,9 8 9
3, 104
2 ,9 3 9

1 9 .4
20. 3
22. 2
22. 7
2 1 .2

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...............................
...............................
...............................
...............................
...............................

2, 858
3 ,4 1 1
3, 817
3 ,6 3 7
3 ,6 4 9

20. 4
2 4. 1
2 6. 6
2 4. 9
2 4. 5

1950 ...............................
1 9 5 1 ...............................
1952 ...............................
1953 ...............................
1954 ...............................

3, 632
3, 823
3 ,9 1 3
3 ,9 6 5
4 , 078

24.
2 4.
25.
2 5.
25.

Y ea r

N u m b er
(th o u sa n d s)

1
9
1
0
3

1955 ...............................
4 , 104
2 5. 0
2 5. 2
4 , 220
19561...............................
4 , 301
2 5. 3
19572...............................
1 P r o v is io n a l.
2 E s tim a te d .
S o u r c e : U. S. D e p a r tm e n t o f H e a lth , E d u ca tio n ,
and W e lfa r e , N a tio n a l O ffice o f V ita l S t a t is t ic s .

5
C h a n g es in the d eath r a te h a v e a ls o a ffe c te d the g ro w th and age
c o m p o s itio n o f our p o p u la tio n . T he o v e r a ll d eath r a te in the U n ited S ta te s
h a s d e c lin e d c o n s is te n tly s in c e the tu rn of the c e n tu r y . T he b e s t w ay to
s u m m a r iz e th is im p r o v e m e n t is th rou gh the m e a s u r e c a lle d a v e r a g e r e m a in ­
in g life tim e or the a v e r a g e le n g th of lif e . The a v e r a g e len g th o f life fo r
w h ite m a le s in the U n ited S ta te s in c r e a s e d fr o m 48. 2 y e a r s in 1900 to 67. 3
y e a r s in 1955.
It is im p o r ta n t to n ote th at g a in s in life e x p e c ta n c y h a v e not b e e n
u n ifo r m fo r a ll a g e s . G r e a te s t d e c r e a s e s in d eath r a te s h a v e o c c u r r e d at
the y o u n g er a g e s . T he a v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e at b irth fo r a w h ite m a le
in c r e a s e d b y 19. 1 y e a r s b e tw e e n 1900 and 1955, w h ile at age 60 the in c r e a s e
w a s o n ly 1. 6 y e a r s (ta b le 3).
The d r a m a tic d e c lin e in the d eath r a te s fo r in fa n ts r e s u lte d frq m
d e c lin e s in d ea th s w h ich w e r e due to d ia r r h e a and e n t e r i t i s , p n eu m o n ia and
in flu e n z a , p r e m a tu r e b ir th and o th er c a u s e s . M o st of th is im p r o v e m e n t is
a ttr ib u ta b le to b e tte r sa n ita tio n , im p r o v e d m ilk su p p ly , and o th er fa c to r s
a s s o c ia te d w ith our im p r o v e d sta n d a rd of liv in g . T he ra p id r is e in the
p r o p o r tio n of b a b ie s b o rn in h o sp ita ls* h a s a ls o 'h e lp e d to lo w e r in fan t d eath
r a te s.
In a d d itio n to the d r a m a tic r e d u c tio n in in fan t m o r ta lity , r e m a r k a b le
s u c c e s s h a s a ls o b e e n a c h ie v e d in the r e d u c tio n o f d eath r a te s fo r c h ild r e n .
F o r e x a m p le , u n d er 1900 m o r ta lity c o n d itio n s, ab ou t 90 p e r c e n t o f a ll
1 - y e a r -o ld w h ite m a le s co u ld b e e x p e c te d to liv e to th e ir 15th b ir th d a y ,
w h e r e a s u n d er 1955 c o n d itio n s , 99 p e r c e n t co u ld be e x p e c te d to liv e to age
15. T he r e d u c tio n in d ea th s in th is age grou p h a s r e s u lte d m a in ly fr o m
lo w e r d ea th r a te s fo r the c o m m u n ic a b le d is e a s e s of c h ild h o o d -- m e a s le s ,
s c a r le t f e v e r , w h oop in g co u g h , and d ip h th er ia .
D ea th r a te s o f a d u lts h a v e a ls o d e c r e a s e d sin c e 1900, but n ot n e a r ly
a s m a r k e d ly a s th o se of in fa n ts and c h ild r e n . H ig h er sta n d a rd s o f liv in g ,
m o r m e d ic a l f a c ilit ie s , and im p r o v e d sa n ita tio n m e th o d s h a v e a ll c o n tr ib u ­
ted to th is d e c lin e . D e a th s c a u se d b y p n eu m o n ia and in flu e n z a d e c lin e d
fr o m 184 p e r 100, 000 p o p u la tio n in 1900- 1904 to 28 p e r 100, 000 in 1955.
S im ila r ly , the tu b e r c u lo s is ra te d e c lin e d fr o m 185 p e r 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 to l e s s than
10 p e r 100, 000 o v e r the sa m e tim e p e r io d . In the ad u lt a g e s , h o w e v e r ,
c e r ta in r is in g d ea th r a te s h a v e p a r tia lly o ffs e t the ab ove d e c lin e s . D e a th s
fr o m d is e a s e s o f the h e a r t, fo r e x a m p le , in c r e a s e d fr o m 148 to 352 p e r
100, 000 d u rin g th is p e r io d . T h is in c r e a s e is due in p a r t to the d rop in the
d ea th r a te s fo r o th er d is e a s e s , w h ich h a s en a b led m o r e p e o p le to su r v iv e
to the a g e s a t w h ich h e a r t d is e a s e s tak e th e ir g r e a te s t to ll. F o r w h ite
m a le s , the p r o p o r tio n w ho su r v iv e fr o m th e ir 15th to th e ir 50th b irth d a y
r o s e fr o m 73 p e r c e n t ill 1900 to 90 p e r c e n t in 1955, w h e r e a s the p r o p o r tio n
su r v iv in g fr o m th e ir 50th to th e ir 75th b ir th d a y in c r e a s e d o n ly fr o m 37
p e r c e n t to 46 p e r c e n t.




6

T a b le 3. A v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e in y e a r s at s e le c t e d a g e s ,
b y c o lo r and s e x , 1900, 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 50, and 1955
A ge and y e a r
A t b irth :
1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ...............................................
1 9 3 9 - 4 1 .....................................................
1 9 4 9 -5 1 .....................................................
1 9 5 5 ............................................................
A t a g e 10:
1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ...............................................
1 9 3 9 - 4 1 .....................................................
1 9 4 9 -5 1 .....................................................
1 9 5 5 .............................................................
A t a g e 20:
1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................
1 9 3 9 -4 1 .....................................................
1 9 4 9 -5 1 .....................................................
1 9 5 5 .............................................................
A t a g e 4 0:
1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................
1 9 3 9 -4 1 .....................................................
1 9 4 9 -5 1 .....................................................
1 9 5 5 .............................................................
A t a g e 60:
1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................
1 9 3 9 - 4 1 .....................................................
1 9 4 9 - 5 1 .....................................................
1 9 5 5 .. 1 .....................................................
A t a g e 70:
1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................
1 9 3 9 -4 1 .....................................................
1 9 4 9 -5 1 .....................................................
1 9 5 5 .............................................................

W hite
M ale

N on w h ite
F e m a le M a le

F e m a le

2
8
3
3

51. 1
6 7 .3
72. 0
73. 6

32.
5 2.
58.
61.

5
3
9
2

35. 0
55. 5
6 2 .7
6 5 .9

50. 6
5 7. 0
5 9 .0
59. 6

52. 2
60. 8
6 4 .3
65. 6

4 1 .9
48. 5
53. 0
54. 9

43. 0
50. 8
56. 2
5 9 .2

42. 2
47. 8
4 9 .5
50. 1

43. 8
5 1 .4
5 4 .6
55. 8

3 5.
3 9.
43.
45.

1
7
7
5

3 6 .9
42. 1
46. 8
49. 6

27. 7
30. 0
31. 2
3 1. 7

2 9 .2
3 3. 2
3 5. 6
36. 7

23.
25.
2 7.
28.

1
2
3
6

2 4 .4
27. 3
2 9. 8
3 2. 0

1 4 .4
15. 0
15. 8
16. 0

15.
17.
18.
19.

2
0
6
3

12. 6
1 4 .4
1 4 .9
1 5 .4

13. 6
16. 1
17. 0
18. 1

9. 0
9 .4
10. 1
10. 3

9. 6
10. 5
11. 7
12. 2

8 .3
10. 1
1 0 .7
1 1 .7

9.
11.
12.
13.

48.
6 2.
6 6.
6 7.

6
8
3
8

N o te: D ata fo r 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 a r e fo r the 11 d e a th -r e g is tr a tio n S ta te s of 1900.
S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of H e a lth , E d u ca tio n , and W e lfa r e , N a tio n a l
O ffice o f V ita l S t a t is t ic s , A b r id g e d L ife T a b le s: U n ited S ta te s , 1955.




7
C h a n g e s in A ge C o m p o sitio n of the P o p u la tio n
P ro fo u n d c h a n g e s in the a g e s tr u c tu r e o f the p o p u la tio n h a v e a c c o m ­
p a n ie d its ra p id g ro w th . B e tw e e n 1900 and 1930, the p o p u la tio n b e tw e e n the
a g e s of 10 and 45 in c r e a s e d fr o m 44 m illio n to 71 m illio n a s m a n y young
im m ig r a n ts e n te r e d the co u n tr y (ta b le 4 ). D e s p ite a d e c lin in g b ir th r a te
d u rin g th is p e r io d , the n u m b er of young p e o p le u n d er 10 y e a r s o f a g e
co n tin u ed to in c r e a s e , a lth ou gh l e s s r a p id ly than the o ld e r g r o u p s - - f r o m 18
to 24 m illio n . T he la r g e s t r e la tiv e in c r e a s e s in the p o p u la tio n o c c u r r e d a t
the o ld e s t a g e s . T he n u m b er of p e r s o n s o v e r 65 y e a r s of a g e m o r e than
d ou b led b e tw e e n 1900 and 1930, r is in g fr o m 3. 1 m illio n to 6 .7 m illio n .
S o m e o f th is in c r e a s e r e s u lte d fr o m im p r o v e m e n ts in liv in g sta n d a r d s and
a d v a n c e s in m e d ic a l s c ie n c e . In a d d itio n , the n u m b er of p e r s o n s 65 y e a r s
o f a g e and o v e r in 1930 in c lu d e d la r g e n u m b e r s o f im m ig r a n ts w ho h ad
e n te r e d the co u n tr y at y o u n g er a g e s d u rin g the la te 19th and e a r ly 20th
c e n tu r ie s .
B e tw e e n 1930 and 1940, the n u m b er of c h ild r e n u n d er 10 a c tu a lly
d e c lin e d a s th e d e p r e s s io n c a u s e d m a n y m a r r ie d c o u p le s to p o stp o n e h a v in g
c h ild r e n and d is c o u r a g e d young p e r s o n s fr o m g e ttin g m a r r ie d . A lth ou gh
p o p u la tio n grow th in the c e n tr a l and o ld e r a g e s w a s r e la t iv e ly s m a lle r than
in the e a r lie r d e c a d e s b e c a u s e im m ig r a tio n h ad a lm o s t sto p p ed , th e d e c r e a s e
in the d eath r a te s and o th er fa c to r s b ro u g h t ab ou t su b sta n tia l in c r e a s e s in
th e s e g r o u p s.
M ore than 5,1 m illio n b a b ie s w e r e b o rn b e tw e e n 1940 and 1955. T h is
p lu s the r e d u c tio n in m o r ta lity r a te s and so m e in c r e a s e in the n u m b er o f
im m ig r a n ts c a u se d the to ta l p o p u la tio n to jum p fr o m 132 m illio n to 165
m illio n . A s a r e s u lt, the u n d er 10 a g e grou p in c r e a s e d m o r e r a p id ly than
an y o th e r - - f r o m 21 m illio n in 1940 to 35 m illio n in 1955.
S om e E ffe c ts of P o p u la tio n C h a n g es
The ra p id g ro w th and the ch a n g in g c o m p o sitio n o f our p o p u la tio n h a v e
a ffe c te d ou r e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l str u c tu r e in m a n y w a y s. A m a s s d em an d
fo r g o o d s and s e r v ic e s h a s b e e n c r e a te d , w h ich in tu rn h a s stim u la te d
s p e c ia liz a tio n and the d e v e lo p m e n t o f te c h n iq u e s o f m a s s p ro d u ctio n and
d istr ib u tio n . T h e se c h a n g e s h a v e a ffe c te d e v e r y a s p e c t o f ou r e c o n o m ic and
s o c ia l s tr u c tu r e . M o st p e o p le now liv e in c it ie s in ste a d of r u r a l a r e a s ;
m u ch o f the m a n u a l la b o r is b e in g r e p la c e d b y m a c h in e s and the n eed fo r
tr a in e d m a n p o w er h a s in c r e a s e d e n o r m o u s ly . T he fa c t th at our p o p u la tio n
h a s in c r e a s e d c o n tin u o u sly u n d o u b ted ly stim u la te d e c o n o m ic g ro w th and
e n h a n c e d our fa ith in the fu tu r e .
T he la r g e n u m b er o f im m ig r a n ts w ho e n te r e d the c o u n tr y e a r ly in
th is c e n tu r y --m a n y of w h om w e r e young m e n in the p r im e of lif e - - a id e d
the co u n tr y in o v e r c o m in g its la b o r sh o r ta g e and e n a b led it to d e v e lo p an
in d u s tr ia l str u c tu r e m u ch m o r e r a p id ly than w o u ld o th e r w ise h a v e b e e n
p o s s ib le .




8

T a b l e

4 .

A g e

d i s t r i b u t i o n

o f

t h e

p o p u l a t i o n

o f

t h e

U n i t e d

S t a t e s

1 9 0 0 - 7 5

A c t u a l

P r o j e c t e d

A g e
1 9 0 0

1 9 3 0

1 9 5 0

1 9 4 0

N u m b e

A l l

a

g e s ............................

U n d e r
1 0 -

1 4

1 0

y e a r s

•

r

1 9 6 5

1 9 5 5

1 9 7 5

( t h o u s a n d s )

7 6 , 0 9 4

1 2 3 , 0 7 7

1 3 2 , 1 2 2

1 5 1 , 6 8 3

1 6 5 , 2 4 8

1 9 3 , 6 4 3

1 8 , 0 6 1

2 3 , 9 6 2

2 1 , 2 2 7

2 9 , 6 1 9

3 5 , 4 5 5

3 9 , 9 7 6

4 5 ,

1 2 , 0 4 1

1 1 , 7 1 5

1 1 , 1 4 4

1 3 , 3 4 0

1 9 , 2 1 6

2 0 , 4 0 2
2 0 , 5 8 7

y e a r s

. . . .

8 ,

0 8 6

2 2 5 , 5 5 2

5 3 8

1 5 - 1 9

y e a r s

. . . .

7 ,

5 6 5

1 1 , 5 7 2

1 2 , 3 4 3

1 0 , 6 8 0

1 1 , 1 8 6

1 7 , 2 6 7

2 0 - 2 4

y e a r s

. . . .

7 , 3 8 3

1 0 , 9 1 5

1 1 , 6 9 0

1 1 , 6 2 0

1 0 , 7 6 6

1 3 , 5 0 2

1 9 , 3 3 1

2 5 - 3 4

y e a r s

. . . .

1 2 , 1 6 2

1 9 , 0 3 9

2 1 , 4 4 6

2 3 , 9 2 6

2 4 , 1 3 6

2 2 , 5 2 7

3 1 , 2 1 3

3 5 - 4 4

y e a r s

. . . .

9 , 2 7 1

1 7 , 2 7 0

1 8 , 4 2 2

2 1 , 5 6 9

2 2 , 8 0 9

2 4 , 2 8 8

2 2 , 7 2 7

4 5 -

5 4

y e a r s

. . . .

6 , 4 3 9

1 3 , 0 9 6

1 5 ,

5 5 5

1 7 , 4 1 3

1 8 , 9 0 0

2 2 , 1 3 0

2 3 , 6 4 8

5 5 - 6 4

y e a r s

. . . .

4 ,

6 5

0 2 7

8 , 4 7 7

1 0 , 6 9 4

1 3 , 4 2 4

1 4 , 5 2 9

1 7 , 0 9 9

2 0 , 2 3 4

3 , 0 9 9

6 , 7 0 5

9 , 0 3 1

1 2 , 2 8 7

1 4 , 1 2 7

1 7 , 6 3 8

2 1 , 8 7 2

y e a r s

a n d

o v e r ........................

P e r c e n t

A l l

a

g e s .............................

U n d e r

1 0

y e a r s .

1 0 -

1 4

y e a r s

. . . .

1 5 -

1 9

y e a r s

. . . .

2 0 - 2 4

y e a r s

. . . .

d i s t r i b u t i o n

1 0 0 .

0

1 0 0 .

0

1 0 0 .

0

1 0 0 .

2 3 .

7

1 9 .

5

1 6 .

1

1 0 .

6

0

1 0 0 .

0

1 0 0 .

0

1 0 0 .

0

2 0 .

6

2 0 .

2

1 9 .

5

2 1 .

5

9 . 8

8 . 9

7 .

3

8 .

1

9 . 9

9 . 4

9 .

3

7 .

0

6 .

9 . 7

8 .

8 .

8

7 .

7

6 .

9

9 . 9

9 . 0

8

8 .

9

9 .

1

5

7 .

0

8 .

6
8

2 5 - 3 4

y e a r s

. . . .

1 6 .

0

1 5 .

5

1 6 .

2

1 5 .

8

1 4 .

6

1 1 .

6

1 3 .

3 5 - 4 4

y e a r s

. . . .

1 2 .

2

1 4 .

0

1 3 .

9

1 4 .

2

1 3 .

8

1 2 .

5

1 0 .

1

4 5 -

5 4

y e a r s

. . . .

8 .

5

1 0 .

6

1 1 .

8

1 1 .

5

1 1 . 4

1 1 . 4

1 0 .

5

5 5 - 6 4

y e a r s

. . . .

5 .

3

6 .

9

8 .

1

8 .

9

8 .

8

8 .

8

9 .

0

4 .

1

5 . 4

6 .

8

8 .

1

8 .

5

9 .

1

9 .

7

6 5

y e a r s

a n d

o v e r ........................

N o t e :
e q u a l

B e c a u s e

o f

r o u n d i n g ,

s u m s

o f

i n d i v i d u a l

i t e m

s

d o

n o t

n e c e s s a r i l y

t o t a l s .

S o u r c e :




U .

S .

D e p a r t m

e n t

o f

C o m

m

e r c e ,

B u r e a u

o f

t h e

C e n s u s .

9

T h e r e
f o r c e

in

T h i s

m

w h i c h

h a s

a y

T h e

j o b

M

e r l y ,

T h e

a v e r a g e
y e a r s

a n d

h e

f r o m

3 2

l i f e
o f

y i e l d s

h a d

w h o m

i n c o m

m

a r e

e

in

in

g o v e r n m

e n t

w o r k e r s
e d u c a t i o n
w o r k

i s

e f f e c t s

a r e

t e a c h e r s

t h e

f o r

l a r g e

t o

F o r

t h i s

T h e
C h i e f ,

A

F o u r t h

o f

o f

p e o p l e

t o

a n d

t h e

e c o n o m

l a r g e

t h e i r
o n

w o r k

a g e .

v e r y

f a m

c h i l d r e n

t h e i r

o w n

a n y

m

t h e

i c

i l i e s

o f

a s
s a v i n g s

o r

o l d e r

f o r

L a b o r
a t

i n c r e a s e

i n

t h e

a n d

t h e

e

p r o b l e m

a n d

a r e

a d a p t
f o r

w h o l e

a p a r t m

b e i n g

j o b s

t h e

t o

p e r s o n s

t o

o f

in

t o

m

a n y

p r o v i d e
o f

t h e

f i e l d - -

d e s i g n e d

o f

e n t .

u s e f u l

o f

b e c a u s e

c a p a c i t i e s

c o n t i n u e

l e n g t h

I n d u s t r y

r e t i r e m

s t u d y 2

i n c r e a s e d

n e e d

e d i c a l

e n t s

c a n

in

p e r s o n s ,

A l s o ,
m

b u i l t .

t h e

y e a r s

.

n e w

p l e x

p e r s o n

h a d

r a p i d l y

a

o f

S t a t i s t i c s

i n c r e a s e d
a j o r

5 0

p e r i o d

c o m

b i r t h

o l d e r

m

t h e

c o u l d

i n v e s t m e n t

o f

a

h e

t r a i n e d

t h e

e n

y e a r s

l o n g e r

t h e

o f

m

T h e

T h e

H o u s e s

t o

t h e

p a s t ,

f o r

t h a n

p e o p l e

B u r e a u

1 9 5 5 .

p e r s o n s

e f f o r t s

f o r

7 0

B e c a u s e

y e a r s

s i n c e

t h e

t o

l i f e .

y o u n g

o r e ,

p e r s o n s ,

p e n s i o n s

o r e

n e e d

in

y e a r s

o f

n u m b e r

b e c o m

o l d e r

4 7

w a y

p r e p a r e

in

h a s

o l d e r

f r o m

r e c e n t

4

m

i l l i o n

b a b i e s

u n p r e c e d e n t e d
m

e d i c a l

e s ,

b e i n g

t o

o f

c a r e .

a c u t e l y
a r e

f e l t
i n

in

t h e
m

s i z e
a n y

it

L e n g t h
o f

i s

o f
M

I n t e r n a t i o n a l

W

M

b o r n

a n d
d i r e c t

c o m

o r k i n g

a n p o w e r

in

o f

a
E m

G e r o n t o l o g i c a l

a

p e r

y e a r s

p l o y m

4

t o

m

e e t

a r id
o l d e r

A d u l t
a n d

p o s t - W

s a t i s f y i n g

f a m

o f

W

II

h a s

b o o s t e d

s .

T h e

e n t a r y
f o r

c o l l e g e

a r

f o o d s ,

i l y

e l e m

d e m a n d

r e a c h

o r l d

b a b y

b e d r o o m

w h e r e

T h e

s c h o o l

h i g h e r
f a c i l i t i e s

c o l l e g e

a s

a g e .

T r e n d s

o u r

f u t u r e

e f f e c t s

r e a s o n a b l e

p a p e r

t h e

o r

s h o r t a g e s

r e c e n t

i n d i r e c t
t h a t

3

s c h o o l s

s u p p l y .

p o s i t i o n

i n

p r o c e s s e d

c h i l d r e n

P o p u l a t i o n

L i f e ,
a n d

t h e

y e a r
f o r

w i t h

f u r t h e r
i n

a n d

i m p o r t a n t

o r e

t h o s e

t i g h t

c r e a t e

b a b i e s

e a c h

d e m a n d s

p a r t i c u l a r l y

c o n t i n u e

r e a s o n ,




y o u n g

s o c i a l

t h e
w i t h

o u r

e x p e c t a n c y

d e v e l o p e d .

s

h a v e

D i v i s i o n

m

t h a n

y e a r s

h a s
o f

c l a s s r o o m

w i l l

t o

t o

w o r k

w o r k ,

h e l p

a n d

n u m b e r

C h a n g e s

l i f e

F u r t h e r m

F u t u r e

e x p e c t e d

o f

a c ,c e p t

l i f e

4 2

e n t

a b o u t

h o m

a l s o

a n d

e d u c a t i o n

o f

t o y s ,

d e m a n d

o u r

d e p e n d e n t

r e p e r c u s s i o n s .

m a k i n g

c r e a t e d

c h i l d r e n s
t h e

f o r

t h e

d e p r e s s i o n .

c o n t r i b u t e d

y e a r s

l i v i n g

t h e

u n d e r t a k e n .

b i r t h

h a s

3 5

h o u s e

o r e

l i v e

t o

o f

w o r k

p r o v i d e
w i l l

t o

j o b s .

t o

f o r t s

w h i c h

b e i n g

T h e
p e r i o d

t o

t o

e n t e r i n g

d u r i n g

h a v e

a f f e c t e d

a f f e c t e d

n e c e s s a r y

o t h e r

b e e n

a r e

a n d

a l s o

e x p e c t

n u m b e r

c o m

m

p e r s o n s

s i t u a t i o n

a l s o

o v e r

p a r e n t s
a r e

b e n e f i t s .

r e t i r e m

p h y s i c a l

b u i l t

y e a r s

a b l e

t h e

a l s o

n o t

j o b

a y

e n

h a s

w i l l i n g

1 9 0 0

n o t

g e r i a t r i c s - - h a s
t h e

o r e

a n y

a f t e r

i n c r e a s e

o r e

a v e r a g e

y e a r s

h a s

c a n

h i g h e r

t h e

w o m

e x p e c t a t i o n

t e c h n i c a l
m

m

a r e

h a s

e d u c a t i o n

a n d

t h a t

m

a n d

e l d e r l y

t h e

n o w
i s

f a v o r a b l e

f o r

t h e y

y o u n g

b i r t h r a t e s

l i v e l i h o o d .

in

a n d

c o n t r i b u t e

s h o w s

t h e

o f

l o w

s i z e

r e s u l t ,
a

t h e

y e a r s

e s

a r e

1 9 5 5

a n d

t r a i n i n g

a

f o r

i l y

h o m

i n c r e a s e

i n d u s t r i a l
n o w

a s

p e r s o n

t r a i n i n g

f a m

1 9 0 0

a g o ,

t o

r e c e n t

N e i t h e r

r i g h t s

b e t w e e n

in

o d e r n

y e s t e r y e a r .

p e n s i o n

i n

s h o r t a g e
o f

o p p o r t u n i t i e s

d e c l i n e

s t r u c t u r e .

r e l a t i v e
b e c a u s e

c o n t r i b u t e d

e x i s t e d
i n

a

y e a r s

h a v e

h a s

i n c r e a s e

f o r m

b e e n

r e c e n t

o n

e s t i m

p r e s e n t e d
e n t

C o n g r e s s ,

p o p u l a t i o n

o u r

f u t u r e
a t e

b y

M

e r a n o ,

J u l y

a l s o

b e

f o r c e .

f u t u r e

S e y m o u r

S t a t i s t i c s ,
a t

o f

c a n

w o r k

L .

1 9 5 7 ,

I t a l y .

W

o l f b e i n ,

a t

t h e

10

p o p u l a t i o n

b e

P o p u l a t i o n

m a d e

o f

b i r t h r a t e s ,

i m

m

i g r a t i o n

a r e

n o

a l s o

d e a t h
w i l l

p r e d i c t a b l e

p o p u l a t i o n

r a t e s

it

i s

o f

m

a k e

t h e
b e

h o w

a n

t o

c o u n t r y .
i n

a n y

p o p u l a t i o n

t h e

s a m e

m

a t

o f

b y

a r e

s p e c i f i c

I m

a l l o w a n c e
o f

n o

i s

a l s o

a r e

m

t h e
in

t o
o f

P a s t
s t e a d i l y

h a s

t o w a r d

o f
m

p o p u l a t i o n
n u m

f o r

g r o w t h
o f

a g e

a s

a s p e c t

in

o f

a n a l y s e s

N e t

b e r

e a c h

g r a d u a l l y

i f

t h e r e

d e a t h s

g r o u p
t h e

i s

i n

t h e

p a s t .

P

r o ­

f o r e c a s t i n g

c a n

a n d

in

b e

b e r

i m

t h e

n u m

a r e

t w o

s t e p s .

a l i v e

o f

a t e

a t e d

a t

m

i g r a n t s

n u m b e r

b e r s

t h e n

o f

T h e

f u t u r e

w h o

o f

f i r s t

p e r i o d s
w i l l

b a b i e s

b a b i e s

" s u r v i v e d "

a r e
t o

i s

t o

e n t e r

t h a t

w i l l

a d d e d

o l d e r

t o

a n d

t o

a g e s

in

A l i v e

p e r s o n s

i s

a g e

g r o u p s

b a s e d

t h e

i g r a t i o n
o u r

i m

o f

m

a n d

a

t h e
o n

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

o f

s u r v i v a l

t h e

f o r

a

f o r

g i v e h

r e c e n t

a l i v e

i m

T h e
m

o f

a
y e a r s .

in

d e a t h

y e a r s .

i n c l u d e
a n d

a n

a g e - s e x

i g r a n t s ,

o f

b e e n

d e c l i n e

e x p e r i e n c e

l a w s .

r a t e s ,

p e r i o d

h a v e

f u t u r e

n o w

o l d e r

a c t u a l

p r o p o r t i o n

w h i c h

c o n t i n u i n g
r a t e s

n u m b e r

i g r a t i o n

t o

a p p l y i n g

r a t e s ,

r e c e n t

s u r v i v e
t h e

s u r v i v e

f o r

w i l l

a r r a y i n g

i n d i c a t e

d e a t h

s u r v i v a l

b a s e d

w h o

b y

a n d

t o

o n

a l l o w a n c e
i n

l i v i n g

d o n e

r a t e s ,

e x p e c t e d

a r e
a n

n o w

I t

d e a t h

b e

in

m a d e

e s t i m

P r o j e c t i o n s

m

P o p u l a t i o n

w i l l

n u m

a t t e r .

o f

r a t e s

t h e

t o

d e t a i l e d

y e a r s ,

i m

a t e d

e s t i m

N o w

e n t

c h a n g e

t r e n d s

T h e

w o m

T r e n d s

u s u a l

i n

i n

1 9 0 0

f a m




i l y

t h e

t h e
t o

e n d

d e c r e a s i n g
a l w a y s

d e a t h

m a k i n g
m

b e e n

f o r

f o r

d e t a i l e d

B i r t h r a t e .

i t s

a n d

p r o p o r t i o n

l i m i t a t i o n .

i t

o f

t h a n

t r e n d s
o f

m

a n

a s s u m

p t i o n

d i s t r i b u t i o n

o s t

a g e

b i r t h r a t e s
l e v e l s

e s t i m

o f

a t e s

g r o u p i n g s

o f

w h o m

o f

h a v e

b e e n

b i r t h r a t e s

o f

t h e

w o m

n u m

e n

t o

a

b e r
t h e

a g e s .

B i r t h r a t e s

in

t h a t

g r o w t h .

w o m
in

in

f u t u r e

a p p e a r e d

p o p u l a t i o n

l a r g e r

t h e

p r e p a r i n g

c h i l d b e a r i n g

1 9 3 5 ,

o f

r a t e s ,

p r e d i c t i o n

e t h o d

b i r t h r a t e s

e n

t h e

in

p a s t ,

a p p l y

a p p r o a c h i n g

s i z e

i g r a t i o n .

p o p u l a t i o n .

i n c o r p o r a t e d

t h e

f r o m

t h e

m

l a b o r ^ f o r c e .

h i s t o r i c a l

B i r t h s

t a s k .

b e r

o f

T h e

d i f f i c u l t

b o r n

a g e s

o l d e r

b y

t h a t

a n y

o n

o f

U n l i k e

i s

a n d

f u t u r e

a d u l t s .

i r r e g u l a r

f r o m

p l e m

n e t

b a s e d

y o u n g

b i r t h s

in

r a t e s

P r o j e c t i n g

i s

T h e

b e r

i g r a t i o n .

f o r

P r o j e c t i o n s

n u m

a n d

m

s t e p

s i m p l e

c o m

s i g n i f i c a n t

d i f f i c u l t

n u m

s e x

u s u a l l y

N e t

t h e

s u r v i v a l

f o r

i s

i m

l a w s .

g e n e r a l l y

e s t i m

N u m b e r

g r o u p

t h e

d e c l i n i n g

n e t

d e a t h

m o s t

t h e

b a s i s

f a c t o r

s l o w l y

o f

y o u n g e s t

a s

t h e

t h e

a g e

B e c a u s e

r a t e s

t h e

r e l a t i v e l y

p o p u l a t i o n
w h i c h

i n o r

t h a t

t h e

a r e

t h e

s e c o n d

t h e

P r o j e c t i n g
a

m

i g r a t i o n

a t e

t h e

o f

a

e d

i s

o n

m

a l r e a d y

p e r i o d s .

a n n e r

P r o j e c t i o n s

i s

i m

e t h o d

p e o p l e
f o r

T h e

f u t u r e

t h e

a g e s

b e

e s t i m

a m o u n t

c h a n g e

p r o j e c t i o n s

m

a l l o w a n c e

b o r n

t h e

i n

t o

m a d e

g r o w t h .

P o p u l a t i o n
a t e

t o

b i r t h s

M

e s t i m

a n d

a s s u m

c o n t i n u e

n u m b e r

p o p u l a t i o n

u s u a l l y

c h a n g e s

i f

w i l l

t h e

a t t e m p t i n g

a r e

c o n t i n u e

s i g n i f i c a n t

j e c t i n g

b e f o r e

p r o j e c t i o n s

e n

D i f f e r e n c e s

in

T h i s

l i v i n g

c i t i e s ,

a n d

f a m

t h i s
t h e

i l y

c o u n t r y
U n i t e d

d e c l i n e

o n

f a r m

f r o m

a

s i z e

s ,

d e c l i n e d

S t a t e s

w a s

r e s u l t e d
w h e r e

l o n g - t e r m

b e t w e e n

b o t h

f a m

i l y

t r e n d

r u r a l

f a r m

o f

11

a n d

u r b a n

w o m

e n

c h i l d r e n
r u r a l
3 .

9

c o m

4 5

1 9 0 0

h a l f

y e a r s

i n

f o r

d e c l i n e
e n d

i n

o f

T h e

f a m

a r

I I .

i l y

l e v e l

i c

(1 )

M

a r r i a g e

o f

a l l

i n c r e a s e d

(2 )
2 0 - 2 4

t o

N e w l y

y e a r s

b a b i e s .
r e c e n t

I f

m

o f

a g e s

t o o ,

h i g h

l e v e l s .

t h a n

w a s

a g e

g i v e n

g r o u p .

p a t t e r n s
b a b i e s

I f

o f

b y

1 9 4 0
W

o m

4 U .

S .

P o p u l a t i o n
5 F o r

6 U .

o m

h a s

o f

e n

t h e

u r b a n

o v e r

w h o

3 .

e n

C e n s u s
b y

N u m

a

e n

m

t h e

f a c t o r

i s ,

t w o

u c h

a t

a f t e r

o t h e r

s l i g h t l y

a c c e n t u a t e d
a s

t h e

w e r e

t h e

s h a r p e s t

n e a r i n g

t h e

m

a b o u t
w a r
o f
m

t h e

a n d

b e g i n n i n g
h a s

c o u r s e ,

a j o r

o f

c o n t i n u e d
t h e

f a c t o r s

h i g h

w h i c h

a r e :

e a r l i e r

w e r e

h a v e

h a d

a l r e a d y
f a m

a g e .

a r r i e d ;

i l y

f a m

f o r m

I n

b y

1 9 4 0 ,

1 9 5 7 ,

i l y

a b o u t

t h i s

5 3

f i g u r e

8

o m
b y

e n
t h e

h a v e

i n

i l l i o n

i s

1

a n d

t h e

t i m e

h a d

t h e y

o n l y

t o

o m

e n

i l l i o n

e f f e c t

t h e

5 t h

a g e

a c c o r d i n g

W
m

b a b i e s

k e e p i n g

4 t h ,

h a d

5 .

b e e n

m

i n

e a r l i e r .

a b o u t

h a d
2 .

3 d ,

W

c h i l d r e n

w o u l d

t o

a t i o n

2 d ,

b a b i e s

b o r n e

t h e y

o n l y

f o r m

p a s t .

c h i l d r e n

b i r t h
a t i o n

h a d

h a v i n g

i l l i o n

h a d

t h e i r

g i v e n

h a v e

i n

a r e

1

r e v e r s e d

b i r t h r a t e s

m

r e c e n t

a t i o n ,

a

T h e

P o p u l a t i o n
S .

P o p u l a t i o n




o f

o f

E v e r

e r c e ,
N o .

in
b y

1 9 5 7 .

b i r t h r a t e s

b a b i e s

g r o u p

3 0 - 3 4

r e a c h e d

i n

t h i s

p r e - 1 9 4 0

a b o u t

1 0 . 4

m

i l l i o n

N o .
C o m

a n d

1 1 7 ,
m

B u r e a u

b e t w e e n
t h e

o f

t a b l e
t h e

F e r t i l i t y

1 9 4 0

a n d

1 0 .

C e n s u s ,

N o s .

l e v e l s

o f

C o n s e q u e n c e s

U n i t e d

e r c e ,

P - 2 0 ;

D i f f e r e n t i a l

B o r n ,

C u r r e n t

8 4 .

r e l a t i o n

i n a n t s

S t u d i e s

S e r i e s

m

P - 2 0 ,

t h e

o f

P o p u l a t i o n ,

C h i l d r e n

C o m

D e t e r m

D e p a r t m e n t
R e p o r t s ,

o f

S e r i e s

d i s c u s s i o n
s e e

R e p o r t s ,

b e r

D e p a r t m e n t

8

s i n c e

b r i n g i n g

6 - - o n l y

a r e a s

3 5

e n

w i t h

i n c r e a s e

1 9 3 0 's

e n - -

w o m

p a r e d

i n

o f

o m
in

u r b a n

c o m

2 .

w

d i f f e r e n c e

a t i c

t o

f a r m

1 9 5 7

r e s u l t e d

d o w n

i n

a v e r a g e

6

o f

e n

1 4 .

w a s

e n

w o u l d

t h e

w o m

f o r m

R e p o r t s ,

b i r t h r a t e ,
T r e n d s ,

i l y

d r a m

a n

r u r a l

I n

3

l i v i n g

1 9 5 7 .

3
1 9 1 0 ,

t h e s e

f a m

a t

h a d

e n

i n
t o

e n

s h a r p l y

w o m

p a t t e r n s

b i r t h

a n d

o n l y

e n

h a d

c h i l d r e n

a n d

w o m

h i g h

c o u p l e s

w o m

W

o n g

a d d i t i o n ,

p e r c e n t .

1 9 5 7

t r u e

3

t h e

f a r m

i m p o r t a n t

I n

a c c e l e r a t i o n

v e r y

h a d

7 0

i n

e a r l i e r
1 9 5 7

O n e
5

u n u s u a lly

a r r i e d

t h e s e

a m

o c c u r r i n g

o s t

2 .

c i t i e s

w o m

b o t h

e n

u r b a n - r u r a l

d e p r e s s i o n

r o s e

y e a r - o l d

p r e - 1 9 4 0

y e a r s ,

o l d e r

i s

a g e

i n

w o m

w h i t e

o f

w o m

d e c l i n e d .

o n l y

i n

f o r

u r b a n

T h e

a l l

b i r t h r a t e

t h e n .

2 0 - 2 4
a l m

t h e

t h e

f o r

n a t i v e

a v e r a g e

y e a r s .

b i r t h r a t e

t o

w h i t e

h a v e

o f

w h e n

a n

c h i l d r e n

t h a t

l i v i n g

T h e

i t a t i o n

1

H o w e v e r ,

f o r

e n .

a c t i v i t y .

c o n t r i b u t e d

4

1 9 1 0 3
h a d

n a t i v e

b o t h

e n

o c c u r r e d

s i n c e

5 .

c i t i e s .

e n .

w o m

w o m

o f

a l l

i n

c h i l d r e n

l i m

T h e

e c o n o m

p e r c e n t

o f

o f

a v e r a g e

w o m

o f

e ,

a s

c i t i e s

b e t w e e n

a n

c h i l d b e a r i n g

o f

h a v e

b e r

t i m

a l t h o u g h

f a r m

e a r l y
i n

a v e r a g e

l i v e d

h a d

u r b a n

h i g h

l e v e l

a g e

a s

l i v i n g

i d w a y

t h e m

d o w n t r e n d

W

m

b i r t h r a t e s

t h e i r

o r l d
a

n u m

t o w a r d

a n

e x i s t s ,

o f

f o r

a g e

t h a t

p r o p o r t i o n

t h a n

t r e n d

A t

A t

r u r a l

t h e

r e c o r d e d
o f

w i t h

o f

s t i l l

a v e r a g e

l a r g e r

a t

p a r e d

s i z e

c h i l d r e n

a t

w e r e

y e a r s

a r e a s .

a b o u t

o v e r

W

e n

4 9

c h i l d r e n - - a b o u t

i l y

t h e

t o

f a r m

s i n c e
f a m

w o m

4 5

N a t i o n s ,

B u r e a u
5 0

a n d

o f

t h e

8 1 .

p p .

p r o s p e r i t y
o f

a n d

P o p u l a t i o n
8 3

a n d

C e n s u s ,

8 4 .

C u r r e n t

t h e

12

E x p e c t e d
f a c t o r s
t o

j u s t

o p e r a t e

f o r

c o n d i t i o n s .
b e g a n

i n

f a m

i l y

o f

2 .

2

T h e
t h e
o f

w o m

t h e m

i n

h a v e

3 0 - 3 4
f e r t i l e

a n y

t h e

f o r

S o m e

a r e

a n

t h e

o f

t h e i r

h a s

u n d e r

3 0

d e c r e a s e

p e r i o d ,
t h e
w o m

a n

e n d

o f

a n .

I f
a l m

T h e

f o r m

b y

c h i l d r e n

T h e

" C o h o r t

T h i s

t o

L a b o r

5

y e a r s

1 9 5 4

w i t h

a t

t h e

o f

F

c h i l d r e n

w i l l




o f

A

t h i s

b o r n

f o r

d e t a i l e d

e s t i m

d i s c u s s i o n

a

s i z e
t h e

o m
3 .

a n d

e n
t h i r d

a l s o
a p p e a r s

i n d e f i n i t e

e n

w o u l d

5

c h i l d r e n

t h a n

e n

f i r s t

r i s e ,

a n

W

a n d

h a s

r e a c h
p e r

b e e n

p r o j e c t i n g

t h e

m

o f

o f

t h e

f r o m

e t h o d

b i r t h s

w h i c h

a c c e l e r a t e d

n u m b e r

a d a p t e d

o f

a

w o m

t o

o v e r

p r o j e c t i o n

i l y

o f

w a s

w o m

2 5 ,

1 8 6 5 .

a t e

p u r p o s e s
b i r t h s

o r e

o f

n o w

f o r

i l y

a l r e a d y

w i l l

w h a t

o c c u r :

f a m

f a m

a g e

l e v e l s

p l e t e d

p r e p a r e d

t o

o f

y e a r s .

b i r t h ­

h a v i n g

p r o p o r t i o n

o f

t h e

m

c o n t i n u e s

a n y

t h e

a g e

2 5

m

w i l l

r e c e n t

b y

r e a c h

b e y o n d

s i n c e

i n

e v i d e n t

o v e r

s o

t h e y

B e c a u s e

a v e r a g e

c o m

e n

a t

w o m
f e m

P .
w i l l

f a m

e n

a l e

K .

W

b e

i l y

w i t h
l a b o r

h e l p t o n 's

f o u n d

o n

b u l l e t i n .

1 9 7 5 ,

o r '2 5 - 2 9

u s e d

a g e

t h i r d ,

1

e n

o f

a r e

e n

i l i e s
a h e a d

b e c a u s e

T h u s ,

y e a r s

w o u l d

f a m

t h a t

4 5 - 4 9

p e r i o d .

y e a r s

y e a r s .

t h e y

1 9 5 5

e n

I I .

b i r t h s

a t

a n

i n c r e a s e d

b e

b i r t h s

l e a s t

w i t h

S t a t i s t i c s

o f

a n d

a i n

a r

t h e

3 0

a v e r a g e

w o m

f u t u r e

a g e .

w o m
a s

o v e r

s i t u a t i o n

w o m

o f

t h e

i n c r e a s e s

s i z e

a n y

w o m

a t i o n

b e f o r e

o r d e r

r e m

y e a r s

s e c o n d ,

r i s e

t o

p r o j e c t i n g

i t

c h i l d

p r o p o r t i o n

p e r c e n t .

a c t u a l l y

W

o l d
i n

p h y s i o l o g ­

a n

p o s t p o n e d

in

a n d

l a t e r ,

e n

f o r

u n l i k e l y

o r l d

f o r m

o f

o r

w o m

l a r g e r

o f

o f

i l y

o r d e r

h i g h e r

f o r

w e r e

c o u l d

p r o j e c t i o n

b e t w e e n

a n d

W

a n d

h a d

l a r g e r

m

o l d e r

r e d u c e d

p r o p o r t i o n

a c c o u n t

e t h o d

3 8

f i r s t ,

2 0 - 2 4

o f

F e r t i l i t y . Tt

3 2

b e t w e e n

g r o u p ,

g r o u p

w h i c h

m

a

b y

l o n g e r

y e a r s

c h i l d b e a r i n g

h a v e

i l i e s

n o

i c

t h a t

a c c e l e r a t i o n

b e r

t h e

i s

i s

c u l t u r a l

h a v e

t h e

f a m

c h i l d r e n

S o o n e r

s i z e

a n y

s p e c i f i c

u n d e r

f o r c e .

b e

d i d

b e

f a m

u n p r e c e d e n t e d

w o u l d

a n d

t h e

t h i r d

i l y

a s

b y

s e c o n d

o f

i t

I I

t h e

c o n t i n u e

e c o n o m

2 0 - 2 4

N e v e r t h e l e s s ,

p l e t i n g

e a r l i e r

c h i l d b e a r i n g

B u r e a u

t a k e

a t i o n

p a g e s

o s t

T h i s

o f

b i r t h r a t e s

t h e i r

e x p e r i e n c e d

w o u l d

f a m

a g e s
c o m

a r

t h e

n u m

s t i l l

c h i l d r e n ,

i n t e r r u p t e d

b i r t h r a t e s

u n l e s s

r e a s o n a b l e .

t h e y

W

t h a t

w i l l

a r r i a g e s

a l r e a d y

u n d o u b t e d l y

p r o b a b l y

l ) .

t h e i r

3

b i r t h r a t e s

in

( c h a r t

o r d e r

o r

a n d

o c c u r r e d

h a v i n g

h i g h e r

o f

f i r s t

c h i l d r e n

o l d e r

w i l l

e f f e c t s

i n a t i o n

o r

b o t h

m

a n d

p l a c e ,

o l d

t h e y

f a v o r a b l e

o r l d

a v e r a g e

c h i l d r e n .

2

i n g

1 5 - 1 9

e n d

r e c o g n i z e

t h a t

e a r l i e r

W

b y

t h e

b e c a u s e

w e r e

1 9 3 0 's

o f
e n

y e a r s

t h e

w i l l

e n d
w o m

i t e d

3 4

a s

b e a r

a t

e n

e

o l d

h a v e

g r o u p

w o m

t h e

e x a m

d e c l i n e

a n d

o f

h a v i n g

s e c o n d

c h i l d r e n

l a t t e r

l i m

t o

a s s u m

t o w a r d

s e c o n d

c o n s i d e r e d

y e a r s
c a n

t h e

b e

3 0

s a m

y e a r s

a l r e a d y

o l d e r

a t e l y

t h e

t h e y

e n

t h e

a r r i e d

t o

p r o b a b l e

e v e n

a f t e r

I n

i m p o r t a n t

i m

t r e n d

m

e n

i s

i s

t h e

1 9 5 2 .

w o m

I t
i t

f u t u r e ,

o f

u s u a l l y

n o w

d e p r e s s i o n
r a t e s

a g e

w h i c h

m

o f

t h e

u l t i m

1 9 5 7 ,

t h e i r

w o m

a s

a n y

f r o m

s i n c e

w i l l

I n

e n
o f

y o u n g e r

M

a t i o n

o l d - - t h e

e n d

in

p l a c e ,

a c c e l e r a t e d

c h i l d r e n - - a b o u t

y e a r s

u n u s u a l ;

p r o p o r t i o n s

i n c r e a s e d

f a c t o r s .

B i r t h r a t e s .

a r e

f i r s t

a n d

T h e

f o r m

i n

l o n g

t h e

1 9 4 0

n o t

i c a l

v e r y

I n

a p p a r e n t .
h a v e

T r e n d s

d e s c r i b e d

w i t h

i s

a t

2 7

t o

p l i e s

f o u r t h ,
a s s u m

w i l l

y e a r - o l d

f r o m

i m

e d

r i s e

s h a r p l y

a n d
t h a t

f r o m

l e a s t

2

w o m

e n ,

4 1

a

t h e
5 2

t o

c h i l d r e n
t h e

p e r c e n t .

d e c r e a s e d

h i g h e r

o r d e r

p r o p o r t i o n
6 3
w i l l

t i m e

b i r t h s .
o f

p e r c e n t .
r i s e

p r o p o r t i o n

w o m

3

2 6
o r

e x a m

e n

F o r

f r o m

w i t h

i n t e r v a l
F o r

t h i s
t o
m

p l e ,

a g e d

4 0

o r e

s a m e

13
Chart 1.

B irth ra te s,

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS




by

S e le c te d

Age

G ro u p s

and

O rd er

of

B irth ,

1920-55

1 4

A l l o w a n c e s
s p a c i n g
w i l l

o f

h a v e

l a r g e r

a s s u m

e d

m

c h i l d r e n

o r e

w e r e

c h i l d r e n

t o

p r o p o r t i o n s

T h e

a r e

a n d

T h i s

1 9 7 5 .
t o t a l

n u m

l a r g e r

f a m

b a b i e s

t h a t

t i a l l y

T h e
s a m

e

m

a l l

t h a n

t h e
o f

t h i s

b u l l e t i n .

O n e

p u r p o s e
o f

a s

a n

o t h e r

e s t i m

T h e s e

f r a m

f e m

a l e

p r o v i d e

f r a m

e w o r k

t o

f o r

in

m

i n

o f

o f

1 9 7 5

i n

a n d

f a m

w a s

m a d e
t h e

4

o n e

l a b o r

f o r m

o u t

a t i o n .

r o u g h l y
S e r i e s

t h e
I I I 7

o r t a l i t y

f o r

o s t

t h e

o f

s u b s t a n ­

a s

a n d

t h e

o v e r ­

p r e s e n t e d
t w o

i n

r e a s o n s .
p r o j e c ­

r e a s o n a b l e

f o r c e

a n p o w e r

v o c a t i o n a l

i s

p o p u l a t i o n

m

o f
o f

n u m b e r

m

a s

w e l l

L a b o r

n e e d s

g u i d a n c e

f o r

a s

f o r

D e p a r t m e n t s

a n d

r e s o u r c e s ,

a n d

i n

t h e

s .

b i r t h

w o m

p r o j e c t i o n s

e n

p r o j e c t i n g

w i t h
t h e

y o u n g

l a b o r

w a s

t o

p r o v i d e

c h i l d r e n

f o r c e

i n

t o
o f

p t i o n

o f

r a t e s

a n d

m

f o r e c a s t s
B u r e a u f s
f o r

l e v e l .

i l l i o n
a

a i n s

d e c l i n e s
I V

a s s u m

b y

1 9 7 0 .

i m

e s




o f

w i l l

6 8

a

t h e i r

b a s i s

f a m

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

m

b e

a l l

h a v i n g

4

T h e

i l l i o n

t h e

1 9 7 5 ;
l e v e l

1 9 5 5 - 5 7

in

e .

S e r i e s
b y

,

1 0
e s

I I I

1 9 7 0

i l i e s .

o f

t h e

r e m

d e c l i n e

a s s u m

t h e

a i n s

t h e

t h e

C e n s u s

1 9 5 5 - 5 7
o f

1 9 5 5 - 5 7

t h e

e s

l o w e s t

f e r t i l i t y

l e v e l

c o n s t a n t
a b o u t

1 8 7 .

r e g a r d i n g

a s s u m

T h e

1 9 5 5 - 5 7
t h a t

t o

a n d

N o .

d i f f e r e n t

p t i o n

h i g h

a b o v e

t h e
e s

1 9 7 5

v e r y

a

a t e s

p e r i o d .

a

p o p u l a t i o n

P - 2 5 ,

u s i n g

e s t i m

a n d

p e r c e n t

a s s u m

a n d

w i l l

s a m e

s a m e

t h a t

o n e

t h e s e

p l i e s

r e v i s e d

S e r i e s

e a c h

1 9 5 8

t h e

I - - i m

a s s u m

l e v e l

o f

b e t w e e n

b a b i e s

i.

t h e

h i g h e s t

b o r n

p r o j e c t i o n

u n t i l

p u b l i s h e d

R e p o r t s ,

p r e s e n t e d ,

1 9 5 8 - 1 9 7 5 ,
II

1 9 4 9 - 5 1

t h a t

b u t

r e c e n t l y

b e e n

i g r a t i o n .

p e r i o d

t h e

h a v e

h a s

P o p u l a t i o n

p r o j e c t i o n - - S e r i e s

S e r i e s

c o n s t a n t
t o

m

b a b i e s

t o t a l

t h e

C e n s u s

C u r r e n t

b i r t h r a t e s ,

h i g h e s t

T h e

t h e
i n

p r o j e c t i o n s

d e a t h

9 7

o f

1 9 8 0

t o

e d

n o w

o u t

p t i o n

s e l e c t e d
f o r c e

o r
a s s u m

f a c t o r

f a c t o r

i l y

a r e

i d - 1 9 2 0 * s .

b i r t h s

w e r e

w a s

5

b e t w e e n

a s s u m

t h i s

w h o

w h o

m

a j o r

r e g a r d i n g

t h e

t h e

t h e

e n

T h e s e

e x p e c t e d

l a b o r

o f

m

o r e

B u r e a u f s

c a r r y i n g

N a t i o n * s
in

A n

1 9 7 5

S e r i e s

s e l e c t

a d e

t o

m

i n

w o m
e n

i l l i o n

o f

e v a l u a t i n g

t o

u s e d

m a k i n g

b e r

t o

o f

w o m

s i n c e

m

t h e

p t i o n s

p r o j e c t i o n s

t h e

b e

u p

t h a t

o f

o r d e r

p r o g r a m

n u m

u s e d

e a n s

s t u d i e s

a t i o n

t r a i n i n g

t h e

i n

2 2

C e n s u s

a s s u m

m

t h e

a c c e l e r a t e d

t h e

c h a n g e

b i r t h r a t e

e f f e c t

b i r t h s

b i r t h s

m

o r

i s

h i g h

a b o u t

p r o j e c t i o n s

o f

a s s e s s i n g

i n f o r m

w e r e

t h e

a

B u r e a u

f o r

o f

a s s u m

r e m

f o r

p r o j e c t i o n

t o

B u r e a u

s e t s

l e v e l

o f

in

t h e

t h e

t h e

a l l

a n y t i m e

i n c r e a s i n g

o f

u s e d

4

1 9 5 5 - 1 9 7 5 .

b u t

p t i o n

o f

w i t h

c h i l d r e n

f o r

t h e

p o p u l a t i o n .

7 T h e

t h a t

e d

e w o r k

p u r p o s e

p r o j e c t i o n s
F o u r

a s s u m

p t i o n s

D e p a r t m e n t

a t i n g

d a t a

o f

f u t u r e

r e a s o n a b l e ,

o v e r a l l

e n t

e f f e c t

t h e

f o r

p r o p o r t i o n

r e s p e c t i v e l y .

a t

o f

p e r i o d

p r o j e c t i o n

s e e m

C e n s u s

A n o t h e r
f o r

t h i s

t h e

S i n c e

p r o v i d i n g

d e v e l o p m

t h e

a s s u m

T h e

L a b o r

t h e
i n

b e t w e e n

p o p u l a t i o n .

r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s
f o r

o f

o f

w a s

t h e

h a s

y e a r s

b e e n

a l s o

p o p u l a t i o n

u s e

t h a t

h a v e

o n l y

t h e

p e r c e n t ,

a c c o u n t e d

f o r

i n

p r o p o r t i o n s

c o n t i n u a t i o n

a l o n e

b o r n

b i r t h

i g r a t i o n

t i o n s

a l s o
b e

2 5

i n t e r v a l

p r o j e c t e d

w i l l

p r o j e c t i o n
i m

b e r

r e s u l t s

a s

t h e

e x p e c t e d

t h e

f e r t i l e

a n d

t h e y

n o t

i n c r e a s e

t h e i r

t h a n

f a c t o r

i l i e s

l e s s

in

t h e

o f

p r o j e c t i o n

a n

1 9 7 5 ,

p e r c e n t

h i g h e r

f o r

t h e

f o r
B y

e n d

3 5

d e c r e a s e

in

a l s o

i l i e s .

t h e

a r e

a c c o u n t i n g

t h e

f a m

r e a c h

m a d e

b u t

f e r t i l i t y
l e v e l

1 9 7 5 ;

1 9 4 2 - 4 4

S e r i e s
l e v e l

15
A c c o r d in g to S e r ie s III, the to ta l p o p u la tio n w ill r e a c h ab ou t 225
m illio n b y 1975 and ab ou t 78 m illio n b a b ie s w ill be b o rn b e tw e e n 1958 and
1975. T h is p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n a s s u m e s the co n tin u a tio n of a r e la t iv e ly
h igh le v e l of p r o s p e r ity d u rin g the n ex t 17 y e a r s .
A n u m b er of im p o r ta n t s h ifts w ill take p la c e in the age d is tr ib u tio n of
the p o p u la tio n b e tw e e n 1955 and 1975. One of the m o r e im p o r ta n t d e v e lo p ­
m e n ts a ffe c tin g the a g e d istr ib u tio n of the p o p u la tio n w ill o c c u r b e tw e e n 1955
and 1965 w h en p e r s o n s b o rn d u rin g the d e p r e s s io n w h en the b ir th r a te s w e r e
lo w w ill b e r e a c h in g the a ge grou p 2 5 -3 4 . A s a r e s u lt, th is grou p w ill
a c tu a lly d e c lin e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965. The age grou p 1 5 -2 4 w ill in c r e a s e
d u rin g the sa m e p e r io d b y about 9 m illio n a s the la r g e r n u m b e r s b o rn a fte r
the b eg in n in g of W orld W ar II a tta in w o rk in g a g e . B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975,
p e r s o n s in the p r im a r y w o rk in g a g e s (2 5 -4 4 ) w ill in c r e a s e fr o m 47 m illio n
to 54 m illio n . The p o p u la tio n grou p a g ed 1 5 -2 4 w ill co n tin u e to in c r e a s e ,
r is in g fr o m 31 to 40 m illio n . D u rin g the e n tir e p e r io d 1955 to 1 9 75, th e r e
w ill be a ste a d y in c r e a s e in the n u m b er of p e r s o n s o v e r 65 y e a r s of a g e
fr o m 14 to 22 m illio n , and an in c r e a s e in the n u m b er of c h ild r e n u n d er 10
fr o m 35 m illio n to 46 m illio n .
Labor F orce T rends
A fte r e v a lu a tio n of e x p e c te d s h ifts in the s iz e and c o m p o sitio n of the
p o p u la tio n (w h ich is the b a s ic d e te r m in a n t of la b o r fo r c e g ro w th ), the n e x t
ste p in the p r e p a r a tio n of la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s is to e s tim a te fu tu re
c h a n g e s in the r a te s o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n , i. e . , the p r o p o r tio n s of
the v a r io u s p o p u la tio n g ro u p s in the la b o r fo r c e . T h e se r a te s h a v e b e e n
ch an gin g r a th e r slo w ly o v e r a lo n g p e r io d of y e a r s in r e s p o n s e to s o c ia l
and e c o n o m ic f o r c e s . A r e v ie w of la b o r fo r c e gro w th and of the fa c to r s
w h ich a ffe c t the w o r k p r o p e n s itie s of p a r tic u la r p o p u la tio n g ro u p s p r o v id e s
the b a s is fo r e s tim a tin g fu tu re c h a n g e s.
The la b o r fo r c e o f the U n ited S ta te s exp an d ed fr o m about 20 m illio n
in 1890 to o v e r 40 m illio n in 1920 and to a lm o s t 70 m illio n in 1955, ro u g h ly
p a r a lle lin g p o p u la tio n g ro w th . The an n u al a v e r a g e p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in the
la b o r fo r c e d rop p ed fr o m 2 .4 p e r c e n t fo r the p e r io d 1 8 9 0 -1 9 0 0 to 1. 6
p e r c e n t fo r 1 9 2 0 -3 0 , s im ila r to the p a tte r n of in c r e a s e fo r the p o p u la tio n .
(S ee tab le 5. ) The further drop to 1. 2 p e r c e n t in the fo llo w in g d e ca d e w a s
d u e, in p a r t, to the sa m e e c o n o m ic fo r c e s w h ich b ro u g h t sh a rp d e c lin e s in
the m a r r ia g e and b ir t h r a t e s - - f e w e r young p e o p le , w o m e n , and o ld e r p eo p le
w e r e in the la b o r fo r c e than m ig h t h ave b e e n the c a s e if the d e p r e s s io n had
n ot c u r ta ile d job o p p o r tu n itie s.
In the 1 9 4 0 's , w ith im p r o v in g e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s and w a r tim e
n e e d s fo r a d d itio n a l w o r k e r s , the d ow n tren d in the r a te of g ro w th in the
la b o r fo r c e w a s r e v e r s e d . The m a n p o w er r e q u ir e m e n ts of the A r m e d
F o r c e s and o f in d u str y b e tw e e n 1940 and 1945 b ro u g h t in to the la b o r fo r c e
8 m illio n w o r k e r s o v e r and ab ove the n u m b er e x p e c te d on the b a s is o f lo n g -




16

te r m tr e n d s. 8 T h e se a d d itio n s w e r e p r im a r ily w o m e n , y o u n g s te r s , and
o ld e r m e n , the v e r y g ro u p s w h o se a c tiv ity had b e e n lim ite d b y la c k o f
o p p o rtu n ity d u rin g the 1930* s. W hile m o s t of th e s e " e x tr a 11 w o r k e r s le ft
the la b o r fo r c e sh o r tly a fte r the en d o f W orld W ar II, an a c c e le r a tio n in
the lo n g -te r m in c r e a s e in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of ad u lt w o m en
fo llo w e d , p a r tly a s a r e s u lt o f w o rk e x p e r ie n c e g a in ed d u rin g the w ar b y
w o m en w ho h ad n ot p r e v io u s ly w o r k e d . The an n u al a v e r a g e p e r c e n t
in c r e a s e in the la b o r fo r c e o v e r the w h o le d eca d e (1 9 4 0 -5 0 ) r o s e to 1 .4
p e r c e n t.
P o p u la tio n c h a n g e s w e r e an im p o r ta n t fa c to r in the la b o r fo r c e
g ro w th in the p r e s e n t d e c a d e . R e la tiv e ly s m a ll a d d itio n s to the p o p u la tio n
of w o rk in g age o c c u r r e d b e tw e e n 1950 and 1955 a s the s m a lle r n u m b ers
b o rn d u rin g the d e p r e s s e d th ir tie s r e a c h e d w o rk in g a g e . A s a r e s u lt , the
an n u al r a te o f in c r e a s e o f the la b o r fo r c e d e c lin e d s lig h tly to 1. 3 p e r c e n t.

T ab le 5. T o ta l la b o r fo r c e , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 5 5
T o ta l
la b o r
fo r c e
( m illio n s )

Y ea r
D e c e n n ia l c e n s u s :
1$90 (J u n e )..................................
1900 (J u n e )..................................
1920 (J a n u a r y ).........................
1930 ( A p r il) ...............................
1940 ( A p r il) ...............................

2 1. 8
27. 6
40. 3
4 7 .4
53. 3

C u r r e n t p o p u la tio n
1940 (A nnual
1950 (A nnual
1955 (A nnual

56. 2
64. 7
6 8 .9

r e p o r ts :
average) . . .
average) . . .
average) . ..

A v e r a g e annual
p e r c e n t in c r e a s e
o v e r p r e c e d in g d a te 1
—

2 .4
1. 9
1 .6
1. 2

—

1 .4
1 .3

C o m p o u n d e d a n n u a lly .
.S o u rce: D e c e n n ia l c e n s u s d ata fr o m John D . D u ran d , The L ab or F o r c e
in the U n ited S ta te s , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 6 0 ; C u r r e n t p o p u la tio n r e p o r ts data fr o m
U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u rea u of the C e n s u s , A nnual R e p o r ts on
the L a b o r F o r c e , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o s. 2, 3 1 , and 67.
8
R e c e n t T ren d s in the L a b o r F o r c e (in M o n th ly L ab or R e v ie w ,
D e c e m b e r 1947, p . 6 4 Q) •




17

T he g ro w th o f the la b o r f o r c e , w h ile r e fle c tin g p r im a r ily the in c r e a s e
in the p o p u la tio n , h a s a ls o b e e n a ffe c te d b y c h a n g e s o v e r the y e a r s in the
d e g r e e o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n on the p a r t of m en and w o m en in v a r io u s
a g e g r o u p s. C h a r a c te r is tic a lly , n e a r ly a ll m e n 2 5 -5 4 w o r k or s e e k w o r k ,
e x c e p t fo r a s m a ll p r o p o r tio n w ho a r e d isa b le d o r in in s titu tio n s . (S ee
c h a r t 2 .) A lm o s t a s la r g e a p r o p o r tio n of m en 5 5 -6 4 a r e in the la b o r fo r c e ,
the s m a ll r e d u c tio n r e fle c tin g a g r e a te r in c id e n c e o f d isa b lin g illn e s s and
so m e r e tir e m e n ts . In none o f th e se a g e g ro u p s h a s the p r o p o r tio n in the
la b o r fo r c e ch a n g ed s ig n ific a n tly o v e r the y e a r s . (S ee ta b le 6 and c h a r t 3 .)
T ab le 6. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s , b y a ge
and s e x , A p r il 1 9 2 0 , 1 9 5 0 , and 1957
A g e and s e x

1920

1950

1957

55. 8

56. 8

5 7 .4

8 5 .9
5 5 .9
9 0 .7
9 6. 2
9 6 .6
9 4 .5
8 7 .4
57. 1

8 2 .4
47. 5
8 6 .9
9 4 .4
9 6. 5
94. 6
8 5. 1
45. 0

8 1. 0
4 5 .3
8 6. 6
9 6 .2
9 6 .9
9 5. 1
86. 3
3 6 .7

24. 1
2 9 .6
3 9 .3
25. 0
20. 6
1 9 .4
1 5 .3
8 .2

3 1. 9
2 6 .4
4 4 .4
33. 5
38. 0
3 6 .9
27. 3
9. 5

34. 8
2 6 .4
4 4 .7
3 4 .7
42. 6
4 5 .9
3 4 .2
10. 6

B oth s e x e s
14 y e a r s and o v e r ...............................
M ale
14 y e a r s and o v e r ...............................
1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ..........................................
2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .........................................
2 5 -3 4 y e a r s ..........................................
3 5 -4 4 y e a r s ..........................................
4 5 - 54 y e a r s .........................................
5 5 -6 4 y e a r s ............................ • • • • •
65 y e a r s and o v e r .............. ..
F e m a le
14 y e a r s and o v e r ...............................
1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ..........................................
2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .........................................
2 5 -3 4 y e a r s ..........................................
3 5 -4 4 y e a r s .........................................
4 5 -5 4 y e a r s ..........................................
5 5 -6 4 y e a r s ..........................................
65 y e a r s and o v e r ............................

S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s .




-1 8Chart 2-

P opulation and L abor F orce
By A g e and S ex
A p ril 1957

Females

Males
M illions
14 15

15 14

14 to 24

;
18 on*d 19
m

15 14

12

10

In the Labor Force
In School

i l :
16 ond 17

14 onid 15
_____ i___
2
0
2
Millions

6

8

_L_

_L-

10

12

14 15

%* j In Housework
Other
Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS




19
Chart 3.

Percent o f Men and Women in the Labor Force
By A g e Groups, A pril 1920, 1950, and 1957

Male

Percent
100

Percent
100

80

80

60

- 60

40 -

- 40

20

- 20

Female

60

60

40 -

40

20 -

- 20

14-19

20-24

2 5 -3 4

35-44
AGE

'920
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU

OF LA B OR S TA T I S T IC S




45-54

55-64

65 and Over

GROUP

[22] 1950

1957
Sou rce: U. S. Bureau of the Census

20

T he c h a n g e s in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s h a v e o c c u r r e d am on g
th o se g ro u p s w h e r e the r a te s a r e m u ch lo w e r - - m e n u n d er a g e 25 and o v e r
a g e 64 and am on g w o m e n . M o st o f th e m e n u n d er a g e 25 not in th e la b o r
fo r c e a r e in sc h o o l; in a g e s o v e r 6 4 , the n o n w o r k e r s a r e m a in ly d is a b le d
o r r e tir e d . A m on g the w o m e n , la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r e a c h e s a p e a k
in the la te te e n s and e a r ly tw e n tie s a s young w o m e n fin is h s c h o o l, b e fo r e
m a r r ia g e and the b ir th o f c h ild r e n b r in g w ith d r a w a ls fr o m e m p lo y m e n t.
A fte r ab ou t a g e 35 a s th e ir c h ild r e n r e a c h sc h o o l a g e , the p r o p o r tio n o f
w o m e n e m p lo y e d o u tsid e the h o m e r i s e s . A fte r a g e 55, h o w e v e r , la b o r
fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r w o m e n ten d to d rop o ff.
I n c r e a s in g L a b o r F o r c e P a r tic ip a tio n o f W om en
T he m o s t sig n ific a n t co n tin u in g ch a n g e in the e x te n t o f la b o r fo r c e
a c tiv ity h a s b e e n the s te a d y m o v e m e n t o f w o m en fr o m the h o m e in to the
la b o r m a r k e t. A c o m b in a tio n of fa c to r s h a s b e e n r e s p o n s ib le fo r th is
t r e n d - - s o m e d e m o g r a p h ic , so m e so c io e c o n o m ic ^
T he sh ift o f p o p u la tio n fr o m r u r a l a r e a s to to w n s and c it ie s h a s
p la c e d m o r e w o m en in g e o g r a p h ic lo c a tio n s w h e r e job o p p o r tu n itie s a r e
ex p a n d in g in m a n u fa c tu r in g and in c le r ic a l, s a le s , and s e r v ic e jo b s; c a r e
o f the h o m e and fa m ily h a s b e c o m e l e s s tim e c o n su m in g a s a r e s u lt o f
th e a v a ila b ility o f re a d y m a d e c lo th in g , p a c k a g e d fo o d s , la b o r sa v in g h o m e
e q u ip m e n t, and m a n y k in d s o f s e r v ic e s . A t th e sa m e t im e , or p e r h a p s to
so m e e x te n t b e c a u s e o f th e s e d e v e lo p m e n ts , e m p lo y m e n t o f w o m en a ls o h a s
b e c o m e m o r e a c c e p ta b le to the c o m m u n ity .9
T he g r e a tly ex p a n d ed n e e d fo r m a n p o w er d u rin g W orld W ar U p la y e d
an im p o r ta n t p a r t in a c c e le r a tin g the h is t o r ic a l tr e n d to w a rd in c r e a s e d
p a r tic ip a tio n of w o m en in the la b o r f o r c e . A g r e a t n u m b er o f w o m e n o f a ll
a g e s w ho h ad n e v e r w o r k e d b e fo r e to o k jo b s d u rin g th is p e r io d . O th e r s
ch a n g ed jo b s and le a r n e d n ew s k ills and s t ill o th e r s w ho w o u ld n o r m a lly
h a v e r e m a in e d at h o m e a s h o u s e w iv e s r e tu r n e d to w o r k a t th e ir o ld s k ills .
S in c e th e w a r , th e g e n e r a lly h ig h le v e ls o f p r o d u c tio n and e m p lo y m e n t h a v e
p r o v id e d s u ffic ie n t job o p p o r tu n itie s fo r the co n tin u ed r is e in the n u m b er o f
w o m en in the la b o r fo r c e .
M o st o f the in c r e a s e in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n b y a d u lt w o m e n h a s
b e e n a m on g m a r r ie d w o m en h a v in g no p r e s c h o o l- a g e c h ild r e n in the h o m e .
T he c a r e o f you n g c h ild r e n p r e s e n t s a str o n g d e te r r e n t to m o th e r s w o rk in g
o u tsid e the h o m e . T h is is r e fle c te d in the lo w la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n
9
F o r a c o m p r e h e n s iv e d is c u s s io n of d e v e lo p m e n ts , s e e W om en*s
O c c u p a tio n s T h rou gh S e v e n D e c a d e s , W om en*s B u r e a u B u ll. 2 1 8 , June 1 9 4 7 ,
U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f L a b o r .




21

r a te s fo r w o m e n w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e . On the b a s is o f
lim ite d d ata a v a ila b le fo r r e c e n t y e a r s , it a p p e a r s th at th is g r o u p 1s
p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s sh o w ed o n ly a m o d e s t in c r e a s e d u rin g a p e r io d w h en
th e r e w e r e sh a rp in c r e a s e s in the r a te s fo r m a r r ie d w o m e n o f the sa m e
a g e w ho h ad no you n g c h ild r e n .
S in ce a la r g e p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in a g e s 2 0 -3 4 l^ave young c h ild r e n ,
the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r th e s e a g e s h a v e n ot r is e n a s m u ch a s
h a v e th o se fo r the o ld e r g r o u p s.
D e c lin in g L a b o r F o r c e P a r tic ip a tio n o f Y oung P e r s o n s
In c o n tr a s t to the tren d fo r a d u lt w o m en w o r k e r s , the la b o r fo r c e
p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r y o u th s h a v e b e e n d e c lin in g s lo w ly o v e r a lo n g
p e r io d o f tim e . T he h is t o r ic a l m o v e m e n t of p o p u la tio n a w a y fr o m fa r m s
h a s d im in ish e d e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s fo r th is g ro u p . On the fa r m s ,
you n g p e r s o n s p r o v id e d so m e of the s e a s o n a l m a n p o w er n e e d e d d u rin g the
p e a k s of fa r m o p e r a tio n s; in the c it ie s , e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s w e r e
m o r e lim ite d . M o r e o v e r , the a g e o f e n tr y in to the la b o r fo r c e h a s b e e n
p o stp o n e d b y the ste a d y le n g th e n in g in the p e r io d of s c h o o lin g , p a r tly
b e c a u s e o f c o m p u ls o r y sc h o o l-a tte n d a n c e la w s , and la w s b a r r in g the
e m p lo y m e n t of c h ild r e n , but a ls o b e c a u s e the s k ills n e e d e d b y w o r k e r s
in our c o m p le x s o c ie ty r e q u ir e a g r e a te r p e r io d of fo r m a l tr a in in g .
A t p r e s e n t, the e ffe c t o f the fa r m -to -u r b a n m o v e m e n t on w o rk a c tiv ity
o f young p e o p le , is l e s s im p o r ta n t. The d e m o g r a p h ic fa c to r b e a r in g m o s t
on the e x te n t o f la b o r m a r k e t a c tiv ity o f te e n - a g e r s and o f m e n a g ed 2 0 -2 4
is sc h o o l e n r o llm e n t, s in c e a tten d in g sc h o o l n e c e s s a r ily lim it s la b o r fo r c e
p a r tic ip a tio n . W ith in c r e a s in g p r o p o r tio n s o f the young p o p u la tio n in
s c h o o l, the o v e r a ll e x te n t o f th e ir w o rk a c tiv ity h a s d e c lin e d , a lth o u g h
so m e u p tren d in w o rk a c tiv ity am on g c o lle g e - a g e stu d e n ts h a s o c c u r r e d ,
u n d o u b ted ly r e la te d to the g e n e r a l a v a ila b ility of jo b s , to the h ig h e r c o s t
o f e d u c a tio n , and to the fa c t th at a c o n s id e r a b le n u m b er o f c o lle g e
stu d e n ts a r e m a r r ie d . 1 0
D e c lin in g L a b o r F o r c e P a r tic ip a tio n o f O ld er M en
A d e c lin e in the ra te o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n o f m e n 65 y e a r s and
o ld e r h a s b e e n a n o th er m a jo r d e v e lo p m e n t r e s u ltin g in p a r t fr o m the sh ift
fr o m fa r m s , w h e r e o ld e r p e o p le ten d to w o rk a s lo n g a s th e y a r e p h y s ic a lly
a b le , to c it ie s w h e r e e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s fo r th is g rou p a r e m o r e
lim ite d . A n o th er im p o r ta n t fa c to r in th is d ow n w ard tren d h a s b e e n e a r lie r
r e tir e m e n t, m a d e p o s s ib le b y the e n a c tm e n t o f s o c ia l- s e c u r it y la w s and
10In 1956, 43 p e r c e n t o f m a le c o lle g e stu d e n ts a g e d 2 0 -3 4 y e a r s
w e r e m a r r ie d , a c c o r d in g to the U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u
o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 0 , N o. 7 4 ?




22

the sp r e a d o f p r iv a te p e n sio n p la n s , a s w e ll a s g r e a te r p e r s o n a l s a v in g s
m a d e d u rin g the p r o s p e r ity o f r e c e n t y e a r s . M o r e o v e r , o ld e r w o m en * s
in c r e a s e d p r o p e n s ity to w o r k im p lie s g r e a te r n u m b e r s o f o ld e r m e n w ill be
a b le to r e tir e in the fu tu re w ith th e a s s u r a n c e o f m o r e a d eq u a te in c o m e
sin c e th e ir w iv e s w ill a ls o b e e lig ib le fo r b e n e fits .
C h a n g es in A g e C o m p o sitio n o f the L a b o r F o r c e , 1900 to 1955
The ch a n g ed str u c tu r e o f the p o p u la tio n to g e th e r w ith the d e v e lo p m e n ts
in r a te s o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n h a v e b ro u g h t about s h ifts in the
c o m p o sitio n of th e la b o r f o r c e . B e tw e e n 1900 and 1 9 5 5 , the m o s t s ig n ific a n t
c h a n g e s in the a g e d istr ib u tio n o f the la b o r fo r c e w e r e a d e c lin e fr o m 31
p e r c e n t to 1‘8 'p e r c e n t in the p r o p o r tio n of w o r k e r s a g e d 14 to 24 and an
in c r e a s e fr o m 20 p e r c e n t to 31 p e r c e n t in thq p r o p o r tio n w ho w e r e 4 5 -6 4
y e a r s o f a g e . (S ee ta b le 7 .) T h e se c h a n g e s fo llo w e d f a ir ly c lo s e ly the
a g in g o f the p o p u la tio n ( d is c u s s e d on p a g e 7) r e fle c tin g the u n d e r ly in g
lo n g -te r m d e c lin e in th e b ir th r a te , the c u r ta ilm e n t o f la r g e - s c a le im m ig r a ­
tio n and the in c r e a s e s in lo n g e v ity . H o w e v e r , the p r o p o r tio n o f young
p e o p le in the w o rk fo r c e d e c lin e d m o r e th an in the p o p u la tio n . A m on g the
o ld e r g r o u p s , the la b o r fo r c e g r e w m o r e r a p id ly than th e p o p u la tio n
b e c a u s e o f the in c r e a s e d te n d e n c y fo r w o m en in a g e s 4 5 -6 4 to w o r k o u tsid e
the h o m e . T h is in c r e a s in g w o r k a c tiv ity of a d u lt w o m en h a s b e e n r e fle c te d
in the r is in g p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in the la b o r f o r c e - - in 1 9 00, ab ou t 18
p e r c e n t o f a ll w o r k e r s w e r e w om en ; in 1 9 5 5 , the r a tio w a s o v e r 30 p e r c e n t.
M eth od o f P r o je c tin g the L a b o r F o r c e
In the y e a r s a h ea d , the s iz e and the age str u c tu r e o f the p o p u la tio n
w ill co n tin u e to b e the m o s t im p o r ta n t fa c to r in d e te r m in in g h ow la r g e
the la b o r fo r c e w ill be w ith c h a n g e s in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s
h a v in g m u ch s m a lle r effect".
T he B u r e a u of L a b o r S ta tis tic s p r o je c tio n s of the s iz e and a g e - s e x
c o m p o s itio n o f the la b o r fo r c e m ak e s p e c ific a llo w a n c e fo r the e f f e c ts o f
sc h o o l e n r o llm e n t o f the young p o p u la tio n , the m a r ita l sta tu s of a d u lt
w o m e n , the n u m b er o f w o m en w h o w ill h a v e c h ild r e n o f p r e s c h o o l- a g e ,
and the r e tir e m e n t tr e n d s a m o n g m en 65 y e a r s and o l d e r .11 T h e se
p r o je c tio n s a ls o p r o v id e an a d d itio n a l d im e n s io n --th e grow th o f the la b o r
fo r c e in te r m s o f fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s --w h ic h h a s an im p o r ta n t
b e a r in g on the q u a lity o f the w o r k f o r c e , on the r e la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n the
d em a n d and su p p ly of w o r k e r s in s p e c ific in d u s tr ie s and o c c u p a tio n s, on
the n e e d fo r tr a in in g , and on la b o r tu r n o v e r . The p r o je c tio n s b y fu ll-tim e
and p a r t-tim e sta tu s a r e d is c u s s e d in g r e a te r d e ta il on p a g e s 4 2 -4 9 .
11
T h e se la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s fa ll w ith in th e ra n g e o f th o se
p u b lish e d b y the U. S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s in
C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o. 69 ( r e v is e d in m im e o g r a p h
fo r m D e c e m b e r 1958).




23
T he la b o r fo r c e w a s p r o je c te d s e p a r a te ly fo r e a c h a g e - s e x grou p b y
m u ltip ly in g the p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n (S e r ie s III) b y the e s tim a te d p e r c e n t o f
the p o p u la tio n w ho w ou ld be in the la b o r fo r c e a t a s p e c ifie d fu tu re tim e .
P r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e fo r the y e a r s 1960, 1 9 65, 1970, and 1975 and fo r
e a c h y e a r b e tw e e n I9 6 0 and 1965, w h en sh a rp in c r e a s e s in the n u m b er o f
you n g w o r k e r s a r e e x p e c te d a s a r e s u lt of the la r g e n u m b er o f b ir th s
o c c u r r in g a fte r W orld W ar II.
T a b le 7. D istr ib u tio n o f the la b o r f o r c e , b y age and s e x ,
June 1900 and an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1950 and 1955

A g e and s e x

N u m b er (m illio n s )
1950
1900
1955

P e r c e n t d istr ib u tio n
1955
1900
1950*

B oth s e x e s
14 y e a r s and o v e r ..............
1 4 -2 4 y e a r s . .......................
2 5 -4 4 y e a r s .........................
4 5 -6 4 y e a r s . • • • • • • • • •
65 y e a r s and over. . . . .

27. 6
8. 5
1 2 .4
5. 6
1. 1

6 4 .6
13. 3
29. 2
19. 1
3. 0

6 8 .9
1 2 .7
3 1 .4
21. 6
3 .3

100. 0
3 0 .9
44. 7
2 0 .4
4. 0

100. 0
2 0. 5
45. 2
2 9. 6
4. 7

100. 0
1 8 .4
45. 5
3 1. 3
4 .8

2 2. 6
6. 1
1 0 .6
5. 0
1. 0

4 5 .9
8. 6
2 0 .9
1 3 .9
2. 5

48.
8.
2 2.
15.
2.

0
2
3
0
5

100. 0
27. 1
46. 6
21. 9
4 .4

100. 0
1 8 .7
45. 6
3 0 .4
5. 3

100. 0
17. 1
4 6 .4
31. 2
5 .3

5. 0
2 .4
1 .8
.7
.1

1 8 .7
4 .7
8. 3
5. 2
.6

2 0 .9
4 .4
9. 1
6 .6
.8

100. 0
48. 2
35. 8
1 3 .4
2. 5

100. 0
2 5. 0
44. 3
2 7 .7
3. 1

100. 0
2 1. 3
43. 5
3 1 .4
3 .7

M a le
14 y e a r s and o v e r ..............
1 4 -2 4 y e a r s .............. .. . . .
2 5 -4 4 y e a r s .........................
4 5 -6 4 y e a r s ...................... •
65 y e a r s and o ver. . • . .
F e m a le
14 y e a r s and o v e r ..............
1 4 -2 4 y e a r s .........................
2 5 -4 4 y e a r s . .......................
4 5 - 6 4 ‘y e a r s .........................
65 y e a r s and o v er. • • • •

N o te: B e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g , su m s o f in d iv id u a l ite m s do n ot n e c e s s a r ily
eq u a l t o ta ls . P e r c e n ts a r e b a se d on u n rou n d ed f ig u r e s .
S o u r c e : 1900 d ata fr o m John D . D u ran d , T he L a b o r F o r c e in the
U n ited S ta te s , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 6 0 ; 1 9 5 0 -5 5 d ata fr o m U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m erce,
B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o s . 31
and 69.




24
T he p r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e on the b a s ic a s s u m p tio n s th at p a s t tr e n d s
in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w ill co n tin u e in to the fu tu re and th at the
N a tio n 1s e c o n o m y w ill co n tin u e to exp an d and p r o v id e job o p p o r tu n itie s
su ita b le to the g ro u p s e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e . It w a s a ls o a s s u m e d th at
th e r e w ou ld be no m a jo r w a r w h ich m ig h t b rin g s ig n ific a n t c h a n g e s in the
s iz e o f the A r m e d F o r c e s and in the p r o p o r tio n of the p o p u la tio n in the
la b o r f o r c e . A n o th er a ssu m p tio n w a s th at a d d itio n a l sc h o o l f a c ilit ie s and
sta ff w ill be a v a ila b le to a c c o m m o d a te the ex p a n d in g n u m b e r s of stu d en ts
w ho w ill w an t to co n tin u e th e ir e d u c a tio n b ey o n d h ig h sc h o o l.
M en 2 5 -6 4 Y e a r s o f A g e
P r o je c tio n s to 1975 o f the n u m b er o f m en w o r k e r s a g ed 2 5 -5 4 ca n be
m a d e w ith r e a so n a b le a c c u r a c y . V e r y little ch a n g e h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d in
the p a s t in the p r o p o r tio n s o f m e n o f th e s e a g e s in the la b o r fo r c e . The
v a r ia tio n s th at h a v e o c c u r r e d in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r th e se
a g e s h a v e b e e n te m p o r a r y and u s u a lly in r e s p o n s e to s p e c ia l c ir c u m s ta n c e s .
T w o e x a m p le s w ill illu s tr a te th is p oin t: L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r
m e n o f th e s e a g e s in c r e a s e d so m e w h a t d u rin g W orld W ar II w h en m a n p o w er
n e e d s m a d e p o s s ib le the e m p lo y m e n t o f so m e h a n d ica p p ed p e r s o n s p r e v io u s ­
ly r e g a r d e d a s u n ab le to w ork ; the r a te s fo r m e n 2 5 -3 4 d e c lin e d in the y e a r s
im m e d ia te ly a fte r W orld W ar II w h en m a n y m o r e than u su a l in th is age
g rou p w e r e a tten d in g sc h o o l fu ll tim e u n d er the p r o v is io n s o f the GI b ill of
r ig h ts . S in ce th e r e is no r e a s o n to e x p e c t a n y c h a n g e s so b a s ic a s to be
r e fle c te d in c h a n g e s in the w o r k p r o p e n s itie s o f m e n in th e s e a g e s , the
la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t a t the 1955 b a s e -p o in t
le v e l fo r a g e s 2 5 -3 4 , 3 5 -4 4 , and 4 5 -5 4 (A p p en d ix ta b le A - l ) .
F o r m e n in the a g e grou p 5 5 -6 4 the p r o p o r tio n in the la b o r fo r c e is
so m e w h a t s m a lle r than fo r m e n in a g e s 2 5 -5 4 . T h is lo w e r w o rk p r o p e n s ity
is r e la te d to g r e a te r o c c u r r e n c e o f d is a b ility and illn e s s and o f v o lu n ta r y
r e tir e m e n t, p a r tic u la r ly in the 6 0 -6 4 a ge g ro u p .
The w o r k e r ra te fo r m e n 5 5 -6 4 h a s sh ow n so m e v a r ia tio n in p a s t
y e a r s but n ot in a c o n s is te n t p a tte r n . A s m a ll d e c lin e o c c u r r e d b e tw e e n
1930 and 19 4 0 , w h ich p r o b a b ly r e fle c te d th e ir w ith d ra w a l fr o m the la b o r
fo r c e b e c a u s e o f d iffic u ltie s in fin d in g jo b s d u rin g the d e p r e s s io n . D u rin g
W orld W ar II, a s m a n p o w er n e e d s ex p a n d ed , the p r o p o r tio n o f th e se
o ld e r m en in the la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e d b y s e v e r a l p e r c e n ta g e p o in ts . The
p r o p o r tio n d rop p ed a fte r the w a r and h a s r e m a in e d fa ir ly c o n sta n t sin c e
th en .
B e c a u s e fa r m e m p lo y m e n t is m u ch m o r e im p o r ta n t fo r o ld e r m en
than fo r y o u n g er w o r k e r s , the p r o p o r tio n s o f the m a le p o p u la tio n 5 5 -6 4
in fa r m w o rk and in n o n fa rm w o rk w e r e c h a r te d s e p a r a te ly and the tr e n d s
e x tr a p o la te d to 1975. P a s t tr e n d s sh ow th at a s the p r o p o r tio n of the
p o p u la tio n in fa r m w o rk d e c lin e d , the p r o p o r tio n in n o n fa rm w o rk in c r e a s e d
b y an eq u a l a m o u n t, k eep in g the o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n ra te fa ir ly




25
c o n sta n t . It w a s d e c id e d , th e r e fo r e , th at th e o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e
p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fo r th is grou p sh o u ld a ls o b e h e ld c o n sta n t to 1975 at
th e 1955 le v e l.
T he p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n s in th e s e a g e g r o u p s ca n b e c o n s id e r e d
r e a s o n a b ly a c c u r a te , a lth o u g h m o r ta lity r a te s m a y b e r e d u c e d e v e n m o r e
th an a s s u m e d in the p r o je c tio n s and the a m o u n t of n e t im m ig r a tio n c o u ld ,
o f c o u r s e , d iffe r fr o m th at a s s u m e d .
T he n u m b er of m e n a g e d 2 5 -6 4 in the la b o r fo r c e o f the fu tu r e ,
th e r e fo r e , w ill in a ll p r o b a b ility r e f le c t a lm o s t e x c lu s iv e ly c h a n g e s in the
s iz e of the p o p u la tio n . T he grou p a s a w h o le w ill sh ow an in c r e a s e o f
2 l / 4 m illio n b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965, w ith an a c t u a l d e c l i n e i n t h e
2 5 -3 4 a g e grou p a s th o se b o rn in the 1920*s a r e r e p la c e d b y the m u ch
s m a lle r n u m b er o f m e n b o rn in the 1930*s. B e tw e e n 1965 and 1 9 7 5 , the
in c r e a s e fo r the grou p 2 5 -6 4 w ill be about 5 l / 2 m illio n and the p a tte r n
w ill b e d iffe r e n t. T he s m a lle r grou p b o rn in the 1930*s w ill m o v e on to
b e c o m e the 3 5 -4 4 y e a r - o ld s in 1975 b rin g in g a d e c lin e in th at a g e grou p
c o m p a r e d w ith 1965. T he 4 5 -6 4 y e a r grou p w ill in c r e a s e b y ab ou t 1 3 /4
m illio n . T he r e a lly sh a rp in c r e a s e w ill o c c u r a m o n g the 2 5 -3 4 y e a r - o ld s
a s th e la r g e n u m b e r s b o r n d u rin g the 1940*s m o v e in to th is a g e b r a c k e t,
w h ich in 1965 w a s o c c u p ie d b y the s m a lle r grou p b o r n in the 1930*s.
M en 65 Y e a r s and O ver
A s in d ic a te d in the g e n e r a l d is c u s s io n o f lo n g -te r m tr e n d s , the la b o r
fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te o f m e n 65 and o v e r h a s b e e n d e c lin in g s te a d ily ,
d ro p p in g fr o m 4 5 p e r c e n t in 1950 to 37 p e r c e n t in 19 5 7 . (S ee c h a r t 3 .)
F o r th is a g e grou p a ls o , a g r ic u ltu r e is an im p o r ta n t s o u r c e o f e m p lo y m e n t,
a cco u n tin g fo r m o r e th an o n e -fo u r th o f m e n 65 y e a r s and o ld e r in the
la b o r f o r c e . In the p a s t few y e a r s , the p r o p o r tio n o f m e n 65 and o v e r in
fa r m e m p lo y m e n t h a s ten d ed to le v e l ou t and the d rop in la b o r fo r c e
a c tiv ity h a s b e e n p r im a r ily in the n o n fa rm s e c to r . B e c a u s e o f the d iffe r e n t
m o v e m e n ts , the p e r c e n ta g e s o f the m a le p o p u la tio n in n o n fa rm and in fa r m
w o r k w e r e s e p a r a te ly e x tr a p o la te d on the b a s is o f p a s t tr e n d s . E x tr a ­
p o la tio n s w e r e a ls o m a d e s e p a r a te ly fo r th e 6 5 -6 9 and fo r the 70 and o v e r
g rou p u sin g d ata w h ich h a v e b e e n a v a ila b le o n ly in th e p a s t few y e a r s . T h is
w a s done b e c a u s e o f d iffe r e n c e s in the r a p id ity w ith w h ich th e w o r k e r r a te s
d e c lin e a t the o ld e r a g e s , and b e c a u s e the n u m b er o f p e r s o n s a g ed 70 and
o v e r is a g ro w in g p r o p o r tio n o f the o ld e r p o p u la tio n .
M o r e o v e r , d ata on a g e s a t w h ich o ld -a g e and su r v iv o r s* in su r a n c e
b e n e fits a r e a w a rd ed in d ic a te a te n d e n c y fo r e a r lie r r e tir e m e n t w ith in the
6 5 -6 9 age g r o u p .12 F o r th is r e a s o n , the la b o r fo r c e r a te s fo r the a g e
g rou p 6 5 -6 9 w e r e p r o je c te d a s d rop p in g m o r e sh a r p ly than fo r the 7 0 -a n d o v e r g rou p w h e r e the r a te is a lr e a d y v e r y lo w .
12U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f H ea lth , E ducation^ an d W e lfa r e , S o c ia l S e c u r ity
B u lle tin , A n n u al S ta tis tic a l S u p p lem en t, 1 9 56, ta b le 28.




26
If the d e c lin e p r o je c te d fo r th e s e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s is
a c h ie v e d in the fu tu r e , the n u m b er o f m e n 65 y e a r s and o v e r in th e la b o r
fo r c e w ill n ot in c r e a s e s ig n ific a n tly d e sp ite sh a r p ly ex p a n d in g p o p u la tio n
in th is a g e g ro u p .
O f c o u r s e , th e tr a d itio n a l r e tir e m e n t a g e of 65 m a y b e m o d ifie d in
th e fu tu r e . If it w e r e lo w e r e d , th e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m e n
6 0 -6 4 y e a r s o f a g e w o u ld v e r y lik e ly d e c lin e . On the o th e r h a n d , if th e a g e
w e r e r a is e d , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r th e m e n 6 5 -6 9 y e a r s o f
a g e w o u ld p r o b a b ly n ot d e c lin e a s r a p id ly a s p r o je c te d .
T he s iz e of the p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e in a g e s 65 and o v e r w o u ld
a ls o be g r e a te r than p r o je c te d if m a r k e d im p r o v e m e n ts in m o r ta lity r a te s
r e s u lt fr o m fu tu re d e v e lo p m e n ts in the f ie ld o f m e d ic in e .
Y oung P e o p le
A m on g th e d e m o g r a p h ic fa c to r s b e a r in g on the e x te n t o f la b o r m a r k e t
a c tiv ity o f t e e n - a g e r s and o f m e n 2 0 -2 4 , s c h o o l e n r o llm e n t is the m o s t
im p o r ta n t. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r th o se in s c h o o l a r e
m u ch lo w e r th an fo r n o n stu d e n ts o f th e sa m e a g e , b u t a s u r p r is in g ly la r g e
p r o p o r tio n o f stu d e n ts a ls o h o ld jo b s . In O cto b er 1 9 5 6 , 3 9 .4 p e r c e n t o f
b o y s 1 8 -1 9 in sc h o o l w e r e w o r k in g , c o m p a r e d w ith 9 0 .7 p e r c e n t o f n o n ­
stu d e n ts o f th e sa m e a g e . 1 3
T he p e r io d o f s c h o o lin g fo r young p e o p le h a s le n g th e n e d s te a d ily . N o t
o n ly a r e m o r e b o y s and g ir ls a tten d in g h ig b s c h o o l, b u t a g r o w in g p r o p o r tio n
a r e g o in g on to c o lle g e . T h e se tr e n d s a r e e v id e n t in th e h ig h e r m e d ia n
y e a r s of sc h o o l c o m p le te d b y th e y o u n g er p o p u la tio n c o m p a r e d with the
e d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t o f p e r s o n s 20 and 30 y e a r s th e ir s e n io r (S ee ta b le 8 .)
T he te n d e n c y to w a rd m o r e sc h o o lin g i s a ls o e v id e n t fr o m C e n su s d ata
a v a ila b le fo r O cto b er of r e c e n t y e a r s w h ich sh ow r is in g p r o p o r tio n s o f th e
p o p u la tio n a g e d 1 4 -1 7 , 1 8 -1 9 , and 2 0 -2 4 e n r o lle d in s c h o o l. (S ee ta b le 9 .)
M u ch o f th e in c r e a s e a m o n g th e y o u n g e st a g e s w here th e a tte n d a n c e r a te s
a r e q u ite h ig h r e s u lte d fr o m im p r o v e d sc h o o l a tte n d a n c e o f r u r a l y ou th .
F o r m e n 2 0 -2 4 , it is in te r e s tin g to n ote th at th e e n r o llm e n t r a te in 1956 w a s
a g a in a lm o s t a s h ig h a s th e 1947 and h ig h e r th an the 1948 r a t e s , b oth o f
w h ic h r e f le c t e d la r g e e n r o llm e n ts o f v e te r a n s u n d er the GI b ill. O th er
e v id e n c e o f th e te n d e n c y is p r o v id e d b y the O ffice o f E d u ca tio n fig u r e s on
h ig h s c h o o l and c o lle g e e n r o llm e n ts .
A co n tin u ed in c r e a s e in th e p r o p o r tio n s o f young p e r s o n s in sc h o o l
w ill a ffe c t th e p r o p o r tio n s o f su c h p e r s o n s in the la b o r f o r c e . In o r d e r to
q u a n tify th is fa c to r , p r o je c tio n s o f the p r o p o r tio n s and n u m b e r s in sc h o o l
w e r e m a d e fo r a g e s 1 4 -1 7 , 1 8 -1 9 , and 2 0 -2 4 , b a s e d on d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s
1 3 U . S . D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t
P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o. 7 1 .




27
T a b le 8. M ed ia n y e a r s of sc h o o l c o m p le te d b y c iv ilia n
p o p u la tio n , b y a g e , M a rch 1957

A ge
2 5 -2 9 y e a r s .......................................
3 0 -3 4 y e a r s .......................................
3 5 -4 4 y e a r s ................................... .
4 5 -5 4 y e a r s ....................................
5 5 -6 4 y e a r s ......................................
65 y e a r s and o v e r .............. ..

M ed ian
sc h o o l y e a r s
c o m p le te d
12. 3
12. 2
12. 0
10. 0
8 .7
8. 3

S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the
C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 0 , N o , 77.
d ata fo r 1 9 2 0 , 1 9 3 0 , and 1940, and o th er C e n su s B u rea u d ata fo r O cto b er
1 9 4 7 -5 6 . T he C e n su s e n r o llm e n t d ata b y age w e r e a ls o a v a ila b le b y typ e
o f s c h o o l, (i. e . , h ig h sc h o o l o r c o lle g e ) and it w a s , th e r e fo r e , p o s s ib le to
p r o je c t e n r o llm e n t b y typ e of sc h o o l in o r d e r to m a in ta in c o n s is te n c y w ith
p r o je c tio n s m a d e b y the (5ffice o f E d u ca tio n , w h ich did n ot p r o v id e the age
in fo r m a tio n n e c e s s a r y fo r la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s .
The p r o p o r tio n s e n r o lle d b y a ge and type o f sc h o o l w e r e c h a r te d and
p r o je c te d b y 5 -y e a r in te r v a ls to 1975. F o r b o y s 1 4 -1 7 , the p r o p o r tio n
e n r o lle d in sc h o o l w a s p r o je c te d a s r is in g fr o m about 87 p e r c e n t in 1956
to 92 p e r c e n t in 1975. T he ra te fo r 1 8 -1 9 y e a r -o ld m e n w a s a s s u m e d to
in c r e a s e fr o m 36 p e r c e n t in 1956 to 52 p e r c e n t in 1 9 7 5 , and fo r 2 0 -2 4 y e a r o ld m en fr o m 15 p e r c e n t to 26 p e r c e n t. F o r g ir ls the r a t e s , a s p r o je c te d ,
r is e a s fo llo w s: A g e 1 4 -1 7 , fr o m 87 p e r c e n t to 90 p e r c e n t; 1 8 -1 9 , fr o m
27 p e r c e n t to 35 p e r c e n t and 2 0 -2 4 , fr o m 7 p e r c e n t to 10 p e r c e n t.
T h e se p r o je c tio n s a s s u m e a co n tin u a tio n o f p a s t tr e n d s in sc h o o l
e n r o llm e n t. W h eth er the e x p e c te d e n r o llm e n t w ill b e a c h ie v e d d ep en d s
upon the a v a ila b ility o f sc h o o l f a c ilit ie s and te a c h e r s , the a b ility o f f a m ilie s
to p a y fo r c o lle g e e d u c a tio n , and the a v a ila b ility o f p a r t-tim e w o r k fo r
stu d e n ts. If th e s e fa c to r s do n ot w o rk out a s a s s u m e d , fe w e r young p e o p le
m a y go on to c o lle g e and m o r e w ill e n te r the la b o r fo r c e on a f u ll-tim e b a s is
at y o u n g er a g e s than th e s e la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s a n tic ip a te . On the o th er
han d , fe w e r 1 4 -1 7 y e a r - o ld s , fo r w h om sc h o o l a tten d a n ce is c o m p u ls o r y to
a la r g e e x te n t, w ill b e in the la b o r fo r c e w h ile s t ill in sc h o o l.
L ab or fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e p r o je c te d both fo r p e r s o n s in
sc h o o l and fo r th o se n ot in s c h o o l, fo r e a c h a g e group 1 4 -17, 1 8 -1 9 and 2 0 -2 4 .




28
T a b le 9. P e r c e n t o f to ta l p o p u la tio n e n r o lle d in s c h o o l, b y a g e and s e x ,
a c tu a l O cto b er 1 9 4 7 -5 6 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5

Y ear

F em a! Le
1 8 -1 9 2 0 -2 4
years years

1 4 -1 7
years

M ale
1 8 -1 9
years

2 0 -2 4
years

1 4 -1 7
years

76. 8
80. 0
80. 5
8 2 .6
8 2. 2
83. 1
8 4. 8
86. 7
8 6. 5
8 6. 8

25. 1
29. 8
2 6 .4
3 1. 0
2 5. 1
29. 1
3 0. 0
33. 2
34. 0
3 5 .7

15. 8
15. 0
14. 0
12. 5
10. 4
11. 1
1 1 .4
12. 3
12. 7
1 5 .4

79. 1
81. 0
80. 0
81. 5
8 4 .4
84. 2
8 4 .4
8 4 .8
84. 6
86. 7

1 8 .4
2 0. 2
19. 8
24. 1
2 1. 1
2 1 .9
2 5 .7
2 5 .2
2 2. 3
2 7 .2

3 .9
3 .4
3 .7
4 .6
4. 3
4 .9
6 .3
6. 0
6. 1
6. 8

89. 0
90. 5
9 1 .5
9 2 .0

41.
46.
50.
5 2.

19. 0
22. 5
2 4 .7
26. 0

8 8. 5
§9. 5
9 0 .0
9 0 .0

3 0. 0
3 2. 2
3 4 .0
35. 0

8. 0
9 .0
9 .7
1 0 .0

A c tu a l
1947 ..........................................
1948 ..........................................
1949 ..........................................
1950 ..........................................
1 9 5 1 ..........................................
1952 ..........................................
1953 ..........................................
1954 ......................... ...............
1955 ..........................................
1956 ..........................................
P r o je c te d
1960
1965
1970
1975

..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................

0
5
0
0

S o u r c e : 1 9 4 7 -5 6 b a s e d on d ata in the U . S . D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e ,
B u r e a u o f the C e n su s C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 0 , N o s . 4 0 ,
5 2 , 5 4 , 66 and 74; 1 9 6 0 -7 5 p r o je c te d b y B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t is t ic s .
The p r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e f ir s t on th e b a s is o f O cto b er d a ta , sin c e th a t is the
o n ly m o n th fo r w h ich e s t im a t e s o f th e sc h o o l sta tu s o f w o r k e r s w e r e a v a ila b le
fo r r e c e n t y e a r s . T he O cto b er r a te s w e r e m u ltip lie d b y the p r o je c te d
p o p u la tio n o f stu d en ts and n o n stu d e n ts and the c o m p o n e n ts w e r e ad d ed to
o b ta in the to ta l n u m b er in the la b o r f o r c e . (S ee c h a r t 4 .) F o r w o m e n n o n ­
stu d e n ts , la b o r fo r c e sta tu s w a s p r o je c te d b y fu r th e r c o n s id e r a tio n o f
m a r ita l sta tu s and p r e s e n c e o f young c h ild r e n . The c o m b in e d la b o r fo r c e
to ta l fo r e a c h a g e in te r v a l w a s d iv id e d b y th e p o p u la tio n in e a c h a g e grou p
to o b ta in th e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te . T h e se O cto b er r a te s w e r e
tr a n s fo r m e d to an an n u al a v e r a g e b a s is b y ad d in g the p r o je c te d c h a n g e s in
the w o r k e r r a te s fo r e a c h a g e grou p to the 1955 an n u al a v e r a g e w o r k e r
r a te s fo r the sa m e a g e g ro u p .




29
C h a r t 4.

School

E n r o llm e n t a n d

Labor F orce

Statu s o f

P op u la tion ,

1 4 - 2 4 Y ears o f A g e , b y S e x , O c t o b e r 1 9 5 5 and P r o je c t e d 1 9 6 0 - 7 5
M illion s

M illion s

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
b u r e a u op

labor

STATISTICS




Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census ;
Bureau of Labor Statistics

3 0

T h e s e
y e a r s
b y

o l d

a b o u t

d e s p i t e
l a r g e

5

m

a

S u c h

o n

i l l i o n

s m

a l l

p .

4 9

) .

b e r

a f f e c t

t h e

b e t w e e n

n u m
h a v e

t h i s

b i r t h s
a n n u a l

I 9 6 0

T a b l e

b y

t h e

1 0 .

i n

t h a t

o r e

t h a n

l a b o r

p l a c e

b e r s
a

o f

p o i n t ,

c h a n g e s
1 9 6 5 .

m

in

P r o j e c t e d

a y
W

t h e

( S e e

b e

in

c o m

p a c t

y o u n g

1 0 . )

t h e

o f

y o u n g

T h e

f o r c e ,

s h o w

m

m

h o w

e d i a t e

w o r k e r s

f i r s t

b i g

a n n u a l

o f

t h e

t h e

i n c r e a s e

a v e r a g e s

t h e

in

a g e s .

t h e

( d i s c u s s e d
i n c r e a s e d

p o s t w a r
i n

o f

t h e s e

a g e

a r k e t

a n d

o c c u r

b e c a u s e

w o r k i n g

l a b o r

1 4 - 2 4

1 9 6 5

w i l l

p o p u l a t i o n

i n t o

t o

a n d

r i s e

r a t e s ,

t h e

t h e

i m

w o r k e r s

1 9 5 5

s h a r p

i n g

o n

i n t e r e s t
a n d

b e r

l a b o r

T h i s

p e r i o d

o f
I I

n u m

o f

b e t w e e n

p a r t i c i p a t i o n

i m

a r

b e r

y e a r s .

p e o p l e

t a b l e

t o t a l

n u m

i l l i o n

m

t h i s

y o u n g

o r l d

t h e
4

f o r c e

e n d o u s

it

W

1 0

d u r i n g

t r e m

d u r i n g

a n d

m

f o l l o w i n g

d e c l i n e

w i l l
A t

o f

in

t a k i n g

l a r g e

a h e a d

i n d i c a t e

i n c r e a s e

i n c r e a s e

y e a r s

n u m

p r o j e c t i o n s

w i l l

p e r i o d

w i l l

y e a r s
in

t h e

n u m b e r

1 9 6 0 - 6 5

( T h o u s a n d s )
T o t a l

l a b o r

f o r c e

A g e
I 9 6 0

T o t a l ,
a n d

1 4

1 9 6 1

1 9 6 2

1 9 6 3

1 9 6 4

1 9 6 5

7 5 , 8 8 6

7 7 , 1 8 1

7 8 , 4 1 2

7 9 , 8 7 2

7 , 4 0 1

7 , 9 3 0

y e a r s
.

7 3 , 5 5 0

. . .

o v e r

7 4 ,

7 5 2

6 , 2 1 5

6 , 6 3 7

6 , 8 7 3

7 ,

1 7

y e a r s

. .

3 ,

1 8 0

3 , 2 9 7

3 , 4 3 0

3 , 7 9 1

4 , 0 9 1

3 , 9 9 7

1 8 - 1 9

y e a r s

. .

3 ,

0 3 5

3 , 3 4 0

3 , 4 4 3

3 , 3 2 3

3 ,

3 ,

. . .

7 ,

5 7 0

7 , 7 1 3

7 , 9 6 7

8 , 3 8 6

8 , 6 7 6

8 , 9 5 5

5 9 , 7 6 5

6 0 , 4 0 2

6 2 , 3 3 5

6 2 , 9 8 7

1 4 - 1 9

y e a r s .

1 4 -

2 .0 - 2 4
2 5

y e a r s .

3 1 0

9 3 3

y e a r s

a n d

o v e r .......................

6 1 ,

0 4 6

N e t
1 9 5 9 - 6 0

T o t a l ,
a n d

1 4

1 9

1 4 -

y e a r s .
1 7

1 9 6 1 - 6 2

6 8 1

c h a n g e
1 9 6 2 - 6 3

1 9 6 3 - 6 4

1 9 6 4 - 6 5

. . .

y e a r s . .

9 4 5

1 , 2 0 2

1 ,

1 3 4

1 , 2 9 5

1 , 2 3 1

2 0 9

4 2 2

2 3 6

2 4 1

2 8 7

7 8

1 1 7

1 3 3

3 6 1

3 0 0

1 , 4 6 0

5 2 9
- 9 4

. .

1 3 1

3 0 5

1 0 3

- 1 2 0

1 3

6 2 3

. . .

7 8

1 4 3

2 5 4

4 1 9

2 9 0

2 7 9

o v e r .......................

6 5 8

6 3 7

6 4 4

6 3 5

6 5 4

6 5 2

1 8 - 1 9
2 0 - 2 4

1 9 6 0 - 6 1

6 1 ,

y e a r s

o v e r .................................

1 4 -

2 5

1 1 4

y e a r s
y e a r s .

-

y e a r s

a n d

S o u r c e :




U .

S .

D e p a r t m e n t

o f

L a b o r ,

B u r e a u

o f

L a b o r

S t a t i s t i c s .

3 1

o f

1 8 - a n d

T w o

1 9 - y e a r - o l d

y e a r s

c h a n g e s
e v e n

l a t e r

r e f l e c t

l a r g e r

a b o u t

t h e

w

o r k e r s

s i z e

t h e

e a r l y

i n c r e a s e

i n

a

s h a r p

r i s e

a n d

t h e

1 8 - 1 9

y e a r - o l d s

t h a t

w o r k e r

r a t e s
b y

f o r

r a t e s

y o u n g

c o n d i t i o n s

p o p u l a t i o n
w e l l

b e

w i l l

e n t e r

a

o m

W

f o r c e

p a r t i c i p a t i o n

e a c h

( t a b l e

c h i l d r e n .

m

e d i a t e l y

o f

1 4 - 1 7

m

b y

o o t h l y ,

o v e

a

b e r

o r l d

W

i n

t h i s

t w o

1 1 .

g r o u p

r a t e s
a n d

r a t e

L a b o r

i s

o f

a d u l t

d e p e n d i n g

w h e t h e r
h i g h e s t

f o r c e

p o p u l a t i o n ,

b y

t h e
f o r

w o m
u p o n

m

s i n g l e

a r i t a l

e n ,

w i d e

w h e t h e r

a r r i e d

p a r t i c i p a t i o n
m

w o m

w o m

w i l l

i n

t h e y

1 6 - 1 9

t h a t

m

i n f l u e n c e d

a y

t h e
v e r y

h o w e v e r ,

e n

a n d

f o r

a n d

a g e ,

w o m

h a v e

t h e y

M

a r e

e n

i n

a r c h

f o r

y e a r s

a n d

o v e r

• •

3 4 .

8

4 6 .

8

l a b o r
o r

m

t h e

o t h e r s

o f

c i v i l i a n

1 9 5 7

a r r i e d ,

h u s b a n

S i n g l e

i n

s i n g l e

p r e s c h o o l - a g e

l o w e s t

w o m

e x i s t

e n

d

p r e s e n t

2 9 . 6

O t h e r
m

a r i t a l
s t a t u s

4 0 . 4

1 4 - 1 9

y e a r s

2 6 . 6

2 6 .

8

2 4 .

2 0 - 2 4

y e a r s ..............................................

4 4 . 9

7 4 .

6

3 0 . 2

5 3 .

1

2 5 - 3 4

y e a r s ............................ ..........................

3 4 .

7 9 .

5

2 7 .

6 2 .

1

................................ ....

6

0

1

6 9 . 4

3 5 - 4 4

y e a r s

..................................................

4 2 . 3

8 1 . 9

3 5 . 7

4 5 - 5 4

y e a r s

.................................................. •

4 5 . 4

7 8 . 0

3 7 . 2

6 6 . 4

5 5 - 6 4

y e a r s • • • • • • • • • • • • •

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6 6 . 7

2 4 . 6

4 7 .

1 1 .

2 4 .

6 5

y e a r s

a n d

S o u r c e :
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e

y e a r - o l d s .

v a r i a t i o n s
t h e

M

1 4

a s s u m
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b r i n g

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a r e

h a p p e n s ,

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r e a l i z e d

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it

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w

i 9 6 0

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n u m

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t h i s




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f e m

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y e a r s

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p r o j e c t

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d e v e l o p i n g

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in

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g r o u p
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d i v o r c e d
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p r o j e c t i o n s

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d i s t r i b u t i o n s

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l a t t e r

m

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t h e

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o f

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t h e

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i s

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s t a f f

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p r o j e c t i o n s

t h i s

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t h i s

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s e p a r a t e d ;

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1

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p o p u l a t i o n

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e n ,

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b y

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1

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c o r r e s p o n d i n g

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t h e

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i n

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W

i n

in

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m

l a b o r

s t a t u s .

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w

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d o e s

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e

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m

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b e

m

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e n

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i m

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a t i o n ,




t h e s e

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m

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f r o m

w o m

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s t a n c e s .

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o w e v e r ,

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a t

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c o m

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i s ,

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w i t h

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m

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w o u l d

s m

c o n t i n u e s

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w i t h o u t

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p e r c e n t

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w i l l

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s c h o o l

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e n

e n

1 4

1 9 5 4 ,

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g r e a t l y

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f o r m

w o m

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t h e r e f o r e ,

w o m

1 9 6 0 ,

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w o m

o f

t h e

i n

f o r

t h e

i g n o r e s
t h e y
d i d

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c h i l d r e n

m

o f

a g e
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u n d e r

w o u l d

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w o u l d

u n d e r

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f r o m

i l y .

t o

t h a t

e n

3 5 - 3 9

e n

w o m

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o l d

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t h e

5

i n

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a n

t h e
e

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a g e

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c o u l d

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w o m

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o f
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w o u l d
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i n

h a v e

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t h e
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f a m

o r

p r o j ­

p r o p o r t i o n

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w o u l d

t h e

a t e s

h o w e v e r ,
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b y

o f

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e s t i m

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e s t i m

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p l e ,

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p r o j e c t i o n s

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m

s a m

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y e a r s

w o m

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e t h o d

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m

t h e

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c h i l d r e n

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t h e

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g r o u p

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t h e

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w i t h

w i l l

o f

b i r t h r a t e s ,

c o u l d

t h e

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i n

i n t o

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o f

t h a t

e n

t a k e s

t o

s i z e

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2 ,

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i n

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1 ,

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2

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m

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m

e n .

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e a r l i e r

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e s t i m a t i n g
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m

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t h e

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p a r t i c i p a t i o n

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a g e s .

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w i t h

i n

h a v i n g

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g r o u p

p e r c e n t

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f o r c e

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m

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e a r l i e r
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a g e s

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p r e p a r e d
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t o

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m

c h i l d r e n

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i s

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a v a i l a b l e

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P .

L i m
m

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w a s

W

m

A l t h o u g h

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p e r c e n t ,
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7 3
W

19

w h i l e

f o r

2

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in

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t h a t

1 9 6 0

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1 9 7 5 .

C e n s u s

5 .

a n d

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o n

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m

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f r o m

3

b e

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c h i l d r e n .
e a c h

4

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in

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F r o m

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m

t h e

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c h i l d r e n

B u r e a u ’ s

w o m

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a n d

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1 9 5 7 . 2 0

i n

o r e ,

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in

b e r

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p r o p o r t i o n s

n u m
o f

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1 9 5 4 ,

t h e

s p e c i f i e d

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1 9 5 2 ,

p r o p o r t i o n

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5 0

p l e t e d
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d a t a

f a m

h i g h ,

C e n s u s

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i n

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t h i s ,
w h o

5

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w e r e

S e r i e s

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3

r e p r e s e n t s

F e r t i l i t y ,

e s t i m
u p o n

i n

I I I

w i l l

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1 9 5 4 ,

w i l l
a t

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o r d e r

t o

r e a c h

p r o j e c t i o n .

r e a c h

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c h i l d r e n

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r e s p e c t i v e l y ,

E a c h

2

w h o

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d e s c r i b e d

t h e

3 .

e n

t h e

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e n

2 ,

a r e

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d e c i d i n g

s i z e

w o m

w o m
o f

w h i c h

a n d

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1 ,

p e r c e n t ,

C o h o r t

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o f

m a d e

B u r e a u ’ s

w i t h

5 ).

t h e

w e r e

o s t

e n d
s e t

a t

e x a c t l y

s u b s t a n t i a l

( P r i n c e t o n

o f

t h e i r

8 6

t h o s e

i n c r e a s e

o v e r

U n i v e r s i t y

J e r s e y .

s e l e c t i o n

d a t a

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a t e s

c o n s i d e r a t i o n

4 5 - 4 9 )

a n d

p r o p o r t i o n s

e s t i m

T h e

p r o p o r t i o n s

( c h a r t

f o r

f o r

y e a r s

o f

S e r i e s

d e c e n n i a l
w e r e

e s t i m

a t e

p u b l i s h e d

S t a t e s ,
I n s t i t u t e

2 I b i d .




o f

t h a t

o n

d e r i v e d

h i s t o r i c a l

a

N e w

T h i s

U n i t e d

b a b i e s

p r o j e c t e d

o f

( a g e d

o t h e r

f e r t i l i t y

S t a t i s t i c a l

b a b i e s

b y

S t a t i s t i c s

III

y e a r s

b a s e d

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w e r e

b a s e d

s a m p l e

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o n

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p p .

t h e

f r o m

1 2 - 1 4 .

d e c e n n i a l
t h e

C e n s u s e s ,

C u r r e n t

S u r v e y s .

21
c o m p l e t e d

o f

w e r e

t h e m .

u p o n

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0 T h e

d a t a

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L a b o r

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1 9 5 0 ,

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2

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R e a s o n s

P o p u l a t i o n

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P r i n c e t o n ,

2

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e s t i m

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p e r c e n t ,

W

w h i c h

A

m

p e r i o d

K .

b e r

c h i l d r e n

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1 8 P .
P r e s s ) ,

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t h e

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1 9 4 0 ,

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p t i o n

T h e

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5 - y e a r

r e a s o n a b l y
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p r o p o r t i o n s

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c h i l d b e a r i n g

n u m

1 9 7 5

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B u r e a u

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h e l p t o n . 21

t h e

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a g e

c h i l d r e n ,

e x p e c t e d

b a s e d

t h e

t o

T h e s e

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5

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c o m p u t e

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1 9 1 0 ,

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c h i l d r e n

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p r e p a r i n g
e a c h

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h a d

m

w h i c h

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b i r t h s

i n

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c h i l d r e n .

p r o j e c t e d

1

f o r

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1

m

f o r

p o s s i b l e

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1 9 5 5

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s t u d i e s

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m

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p r o j e c t i o n s

u s e d

w o m

b e a r

s i m

b i r t h s
o f

b e r

I I I 1 9

p r o j e c t i o n s

p e r i o d

f e r t i l i t y

o f

d e s c r i b e d

y e -a r

h a d

n u m

e t h o d

e n

U s i n g

g r o u p

S e r i e s

d i s t r i b u t i o n

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18

p r o j e c t i o n s

e a c h

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it

w h i c h

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p a p e r
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A

N e w

p r e s e n t e d

P e t r o p o l i s ,

P .

K .

L o o k
a t

t h e

B r a z i l .

W
a t

h e l p t o n ’ s
t h e

2 9 t h

m

e d i u m

P o s t w a r

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B a b y
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I n t e r n a t i o n a l

-35Chart

5.

P r o j e c t e d P r o p o r t i o n o f W o m e n in E a c h A g e

G roup

W it h S p e c i f i e d N u m b e r o f C h i ld r e n
Percent




Percent

AGE GROUP
Sources.U.S. Bureau of the Census;
Bureau of Labor Statistics

36
th e p r e s e n t p r o p o r tio n . T he g r e a t e s t r e la tiv e in c r e a s e w a s a llo w e d in the
p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en w ith 4 o r m o r e and 5 o r m o r e c h ild r e n . T he
p r o p o r tio n w ith 4 o r m o r e c h ild r e n w a s r a is e d fr o m 22 p e r c e n t in 1954 to
35 p e r c e n t in 1 9 75. S im ila r ly * the p r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en w h o
w ill h a v e 5 o r m o r e c h ild r e n w a s r a is e d fr o m ab ou t 13 p e r c e n t to 25
p e r c e n t. S in ce fo u rth and h ig h e r o r d e r b ir th r a te s h a v e b e e n in c r e a s in g
o n ly s lig h tly in r e c e n t y e a r s tne p r o je c te d le v e ls fo r th e s e r a te s m a y b e
to o h ig h .
T he p r o je c te d n u m b er o f b ir th s o c c u r r in g to e a c h 5 -y e a r a g e grou p
in e a c h 5 - y e a r p e r io d fr o m 1955 to 1975 w e r e co m p u ted fr o m th e s e d ata in
th e fo llo w in g m a n n er: T he p r o p o r tio n o f w o m e n in a g iv e n a g e grou p h a v in g
a f ir s t c h ild d u rin g a g iv e n 5 -y e a r p e r io d w a s o b ta in ed a s the d iffe r e n c e
b e tw e e n th e p r o p o r tio n h a v in g 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n a t th e b eg in n in g o f the
p e r io d and the p r o p o r tio n h a v in g 1 or m o r e c h ild r e n a t the b e g in n in g o f the
n e x t p e r io d w h en th e y w e r e 5 y e a r s o ld e r . T h is d iffe r e n c e w a s m u ltip lie d
b y th e n u m b er o f w o m en in the a g e g rou p a t the b eg in n in g o f th e n e x t p e r io d
toi o b ta in the n u m b er o f f ir s t b ir th s th at h ad o c c u r r e d to th e s e w o m en d u rin g
th e p r e v io u s 5 y e a r s . F o r ex a m p le* an e s tim a te d 54. 3 p e r c e n t o f a ll
2 0 -2 4 y e a r - o ld w o m en h ad 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n in 1955. It i s a s s u m e d th at
7 7 . 2 p e r c e n t o f th e s e w o m e n w ill h a v e h ad 1 or m o r e c h ild r e n b y i9 6 0 w h en
th e y w ou ld be 2 5 -2 9 y e a r s o f a g e . T he a d d itio n a l 2 2 . 9 p e r c e n t (? 7 . 2 p e r c e n t
l e s s 5 4 . 3 p e r c e n t) w ill h a v e b o rn e f ir s t c h ild r e n d u rin g the 5 y e a r in te r v a l.
T h is p ro p o rtio n * m u ltip lie d b y th e 2 5 -2 9 y e a r -o ld fe m a le p o p u la tio n in I 9 6 0 ,
g iv e s the n u m b er o f f i r s t b a b ie s th a t w ill b e b o rn to th e s e w o m en in th e 5y e a r p e r io d ir o m 1955 to i9 6 0 .
S econ d * third* fourth* and fifth and h ig h e r o r d e r b ir th s w e r e e s tim a te d
in th e sa m e m a n n e r b y th e u s e o f the p r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n s o f w o m en in e a c h
a g e grou p w ith 2 o r m o r e , 3 or m o r e , 4 o r m o r e , and 5 o r m o r e c h ild r e n .
T he n u m b er o f b a b ie s b o r n in e a c h 5 -y e a r p e r io d b e tw e e n 1955 and
1975* i s e q u a l to th e n u m b er o f c h ild r e n u n d er 5 a t th e b eg in in n g o f the
n e x t 5 -y e a r p e r io d e x c e p t fo r th e 2 o r 3 p e r c e n t w ho d ie b e tw e e n the tim e
o f th e ir b ir th and th e en d o f the 5 -y e a r p e r io d .
T he n u m b er o f w o m e n w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5* w h ich is n e e d e d fo r the
la b o r fo r c e p r o j e c t io n s ,w ill, o f c o u r s e , be sm e llie r th an the to ta l n u m b er
o f c h ild r e n u n d er 5 sin c e m a n y w o m en h a v e m o r e than 1 c h ild u n d er 5
y e a r s o f a g e . T h e r e fo r e , th e e s t im a t e s o f th e n u m b er o f c h ild r e n u n d er 5,
b y a g e o f m o th e r s , w e r e d is tr ib u te d in to f a m ilie s h a v in g 1 o n ly , 2 o n ly ,
and 3 o r m o r e c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e a s sh ow n b y 1940 and 1950
C e n su s d a ta . T he n u m b er o f m o th e r s w a s eq u a l to the n u m b er o f f a m ilie s .
T h is m eth o d c o u ld n ot b e u s e d fo r w o m en u n d er a g e 30 b e c a u s e o f
r e c e n t c h a n g e s in fa m ily fo r m a tio n in th e young a g e s . F o r w o m e n u n d er
3 0 , th e r e fo r e , th e e s tim a te d n u m b er w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s w a s
b a s e d upon the p r o p o r tio n w ith 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n . C e n su s d ata fo r 1950
and 1952 sh o w ed th at ab ou t 95 p e r c e n t o f a ll m o th e r s a g ed 1 5 -1 9 ( i . e . , th o se
w ith 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n ) h a d c h ild r e n u n d er 5; fo r w o m en 2 0 -2 4 and 2 5 -2 9




37
th e r a tio s w e r e ab ou t 92 p e r c e n t and 78 p e r c e n t, r e s p e c t iv e ly . T h e se r a tio s
w e r e a p p lie d to the p r o p o r tio n o f a ll w o m en in e a c h o f th e s e a g e g r o u p s
u n d er 30 h a v in g 1 or m o r e c h ild r e n a s of 1 9 6 0 , 1 9 6 5 , e t c . , to o b tain the
p r o p o r tio n h a v in g c h ild r e n u n d er 5. T h e se n ew p r o p o r tio n s w e r e th en
a p p lie d to the p r o je c te d fe m a le p o p u la tio n in e a c h a g e grou p b e tw e e n 15 and
29 to fu r n ish the n u m b er o f w o m en w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5.
T he n u m b er o f m a r r ie d w o m en w ith no c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e
w a s o b ta in ed b y su b tr a c tin g the e s tim a te d n u m b er w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5
fr o m a ll m a r r ie d w o m en in e a c h a g e gro u p in c lu d in g th o se w id o w e d ,
s e p a r a te d , and d iv o r c e d . A s in d ic a te d on p a g e 3 2, the p r o je c te d n u m b e r s
in e a c h m a r ita l sta tu s w e r e a v a ila b le fr o m u n p u b lish ed C e n su s B u r e a u d a ta .
T he la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith and
w ith o u t c h ild r e n u n d er 5 w e r e p r o je c te d fo r e a c h a g e jgroup on the b a s is o f
d ata a v a ila b le fo r 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 4 8 , 1 9 5 1 , 1 9 5 2 , and 1 9 55. (T he r a te s fo r 1951
and 1955 r e la te d to w o m en b y p r e s e n c e o f c h ild r e n u n d er 6 r a th e r than
u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e .) B e tw e e n 1940 and 1 9 4 8 , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n
r a t e s fo r w o m en w ith young c h ild r e n in c r e a s e d s u b s ta n tia lly in e a c h a g e
g ro u p . F o r e x a m p le , the r a te fo r th e s e w o m en 2 0 -2 4 y e a r s o f age r o s e
fr o m 6. 8 p e r c e n t to 11. 9 p e r c e n t and fo r th o se 2 5 -3 4 , fr o m 6. 5 p e r c e n t
to 1 3 .0 p e r c e n t. B e tw e e n 1948 and 1 9 5 6 , the p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s co n tin u ed
to in c r e a s e m o d e r a te ly fo r the 1 4 -1 9 and 2 0 -2 4 y e a r g r o u p s o f w o m en w ith
you n g c h ild r e n but n ot so m u ch fo r th o se in the 2 5 -3 4 and 3 5 -4 4 a g e g r o u p s.
T he r a t e s fo r the s e v e r a l a ge g r o u p s b y p r e s e n c e o f c h ild r e n w e r e
c h a r te d and th e tr e n d s e x tr a p o la te d . F o r w o m en 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s o ld the ra te
r o s e g r a d u a lly to 15 p e r c e n t in 1975; fo r th o se 2 0 -2 4 , to 25 p e r c e n t; fo r
2 5 -3 4 y e a r - o ld s to 1 7 .0 p e r c e n t; and th e ra te fo r th o se a g e d 3 5 -4 4 to 20
p e r c e n t. (T he r a te fo r the 2 0 -2 4 y e a r - o ld s n ot o n ly r o s e m o r e sh a r p ly in
r e c e n t y e a r s but w a s a t or ab ove the r a t e s fo r the o th er a g e s in 1 9 4 0 , 19 5 2 ,
and 1 9 5 5 .)
The la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith no young
c h ild r e n in c r e a s e d v e r y sh a r p ly fr o m 1940 to 1 9 48. F o r e x a m p le , it r o s e
fr o m 3 1. 9 p e r c e n t to 52. 8 p e r c e n t fo r 2 0 -2 4 y e a r -o ld w o m e n , fr o m 2 8 . 3
p e r c e n t to 4 6 . 9 p e r c e n t fo r the 2 5 -3 4 g ro u p . M uch m o r e m o d e s t in c r e a s e s
o c c u r r e d b e tw e e n 1948 and 1 9 55. In e x tr a p o la tin g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n
r a t e s fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith no young c h ild r e n , the r a te fo r the 1 4 -1 9
y e a r -o ld g rou p r o s e to 38 p e r c e n t b y 1975; fo r th o se 2 0 -2 4 to 67 p e r c e n t;
fo r th o se 2 5 -3 4 to 52 p e r c e n t; and fo r th o se 3 5 -4 4 to 4 9 p e r c e n t.
F o r sin g le w o m en in a g e s 2 5 -3 4 and 3 5 -4 4 the r a te w a s h e ld c o n sta n t
a t 83 and a t 80 p e r c e n t, r e s p e c t iv e ly , a p p r o x im a te ly the r e c e n t le v e l. F o r
a g e s 1 4 -1 9 and 2 0 -2 4 , se p a r a te r a t e s w e r e e s tim a te d fo r th o se in sc h o o l
and th o se n ot in s c h o o l, on the b a s is o f a v a ila b le in fo r m a tio n . F o r the
s in g le g ir ls 1 4 -1 9 n ot in s c h o o l, the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te w a s h e ld
a t 67 p e r c e n t and fo r th o se 2 0 -2 4 n ot in s c h o o l, the r a te w a s h e ld a t 80
p e r c e n t. The p r o je c te d r a te s fo r the grou p in sc h o o l in th e s e a g e s a r e
d is c u s s e d on p p . 2 6 -3 1 .




38
A ll o f th e s e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e on an A p r il b a s is .
T he r a te s w e r e m u ltip lie d b y the p o p u la tio n in e a c h m a r ita l and c h ild
sta tu s g ro u p , and th e r e s u ltin g la b o r fo r c e fo r e a c h a g e w a s to ta le d . The
o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fo r e a c h a g e g rou p ( s t ill on an A p r il
b a s is ) w a s d e r iv e d b y d iv id in g the la b o r fo r c e b y the p o p u la tio n . T o
c o n v e r t to an an n u al a v e r a g e b a s is , the a m o u n t o f ch a n g e sh ow n b y the
la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fr o m A p r il 1955 to A p r il I9 6 0 and e a c h
su c c e e d in g 5 -y e a r p e r io d w a s a d d ed to the 1 9 5 5 a n n u a l a v e r a g e r a te . T he
la b o r fo r c e fo r e a c h a g e grou p on an a n n u a l a v e r a g e b a s is w a s o b ta in ed b y
m u ltip ly in g the an n u al a v e r a g e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n t'ate b y the
p o p u la tio n .
W om en 45 Y e a r s and O v e r . In a g e s 45 and o v e r , th e n u m b er o f
m a r r ie d w o m en h a v in g you n g c h ild r e n a t h o m e i s q u ite s m a ll and the
p r e s e n c e o f c h ild r e n i s no lo n g e r a sig n ific a n t fa c to r in the la b o r fo r c e
p a r tic ip a tio n r a te . T he im p o r ta n t d e m o g r a p h ic fa c to r a s s o c ia t e d w ith
la b o r fo r c e sta tu s in th is a g e grou p is the in c id e n c e o f w id o w h o o d ,
s e p a r a tio n , o r d iv o r c e . T he la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r w o m en w ho
a r e w id o w e d , d iv o r c e d , o r se p a r a te d a r e c o n s id e r a b ly h ig h e r than fo r
m a r r ie d w o m e n w ith h u sb a n d p r e s e n t. M o r e o v e r , the o c c u r r e n c e o f w id o w ­
h o o d in c r e a s e s c o n s id e r a b ly in a g e s o v e r 4 5 . F o r th is r e a s o n , th e n u m b e r s
o f w o m e n 4 5 and o v e r in the la b o r fo r c e w e r e e s tim a te d b y se p a r a te m a r ita l
sta tu s g r o u p s, i. e . , sin g le ; m a r r ie d w ith h u sb an d p r e s e n t; and " o th er
m a r ita l sta tu s " , w h ich in c lu d e s w id o w e d , d iv o r c e d , and s e p a r a te d .
The m a r ita l sta tu s d istr ib u tio n o f the p r o je c te d p o p u la tio n o f w o m e n
in e a c h a g e g rou p w a s a ls o a v a ila b le fr o m C e n su s B u r e a u u n p u b lish ed
m a t e r ia ls . L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r th e s e c la s s if ic a t io n s in
e a c h a g e grou p w e r e p r o je c te d fo r the 5 - y e a r p e r io d s fr o m 1960 to 1975
on th e b a s is o f r a te s a v a ila b le fo r 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 4 4 , and e a c h y e a r s in c e 1 9 4 7 . 23
T he r a te s fo r s in g le w o m en (w ho c o m p r is e l e s s th an 10 p e r c e n t o f
th e p o p u la tio n in the a g e g r o u p s 4 5 and o v e r ) w e r e q u ite h ig h up to a g e 65
and th e y h a v e sh ow n lit t le ch a n g e in r e c e n t y e a r s . T h e r e fo r e , the r a te fo r
the 4 5 -6 4 y e a r g rou p w a s h e ld c o n sta n t a t ab ou t 75 p e r c e n t; and fo r 65 and
o v e r it w a s h e ld a t 25 p e r c e n t.
F o r the grou p o f w o m en w ho a r e m a r r ie d w ith h u sb a n d p r e s e n t; and
fo r the w id o w e d , d iv o r c e d , and se p a r a te d ; the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n
r a te s a d v a n c e d c o n s id e r a b ly sin c e 1 9 40. C on tin u ed in c r e a s e s w e r e
th e r e fo r e p r o je c te d fo r th e s e w o r k e r r a t e s . F o r e x a m p le , th e r a te fo r
m a r r ie d w o m en w ith h u sb a n d p r e s e n t , a g e d 4 5 -6 4 w a s in c r e a s e d fr o m 29
p e r c e n t in A p r il 1955 to 4 4 p e r c e n t b y 1975; the r a te fo r w o m en in th e o th er
m a r ita l sta tu s c a te g o r y in th is a g e grou p w a s a d v a n ced fr o m ab ou t 53 p e r ­
c e n t in 1955 to 62 p e r c e n t in 1 9 7 5 . (S ee c h a r t 6 .)
23D ata fo r the 4 5 -5 4 and 5 5 -6 4 y e a r g ro u p s w e r e a v a ila b le o n ly s in c e
1 9 5 2 . L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e th e r e fo r e p r o je c te d fo r the 2 0 y e a r a g e grou p a s a g u id e fo r p r o je c tin g the r a t e s fo r th e 1 0 -y e a r a g e groups.




-39
Chart 6.

P r o j e c t e d R a te s o f L a b o r F o r c e P a rtic ip a tio n
for W o m e n 4 5 - 6 4

JMTFL dV TES DEPARTMENT OF LAB'."
BK-F-'
L~5uR STATISTICS




Y e a r s o f A g e , b y M a rita l S tatu s

Sources: U-S. Bureau of the Census;
Bureau of Labor Statistics>
.

40
The n u m b er in the la b o r fo r c e w a s o b ta in ed b y m u ltip ly in g the la b o r
fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fo r e a c h m a r ita l grou p b y the c o r r e sp o n d in g
p o p u la tio n and ad d in g the co m p o n en t p a r ts to a to ta l fo r e a c h a g e group*
S in ce th e s e w e r e A p r il w o r k e r r a te s* a c o n v e r s io n w a s m a d e to an an n u al
a v e r a g e b a s is b y ad d in g c h a n g e s in A p r il la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r
e a c h age grou p to the c o r r e sp o n d in g 1955 an n u al a v e r a g e rate*
The A g e -S e x C o m p o sitio n o f the F u tu re L a b o r F o r c e
C h a n g es B e tw e e n 1955 and 1965
B y 19 6 5 , the to ta l la b o r fo r c e is e x p e c te d to n u m b er a lm o s t 80
m illio n . T h is r e p r e s e n ts a r is e o f 11 m illio n o v e r 1955. (S ee ta b le 1 2 .)
T ab le 1-2. T o ta l la b o r fo r c e , b y a ge and s e x , an n u al
a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 19751
(in th o u sa n d s)
A ge and s e x

1955

1965

1975

6 8 ,8 9 9

7 9 , 872

4 8 , 040
8 ,2 1 0
2 2 ,2 9 7
1 7 ,5 3 3
2 0 ,8 5 9
4 ,4 4 5
4 ,2 6 6
1 2 ,1 4 8

N e t ch a n g e fr o m 1 9 5 5 -6 5

1 9 6 5 -7 5

9 4 ,7 7 5

1 0 ,9 7 3

1 4 ,9 0 3

5 3 ,2 0 6
1 0 ,9 5 7
2 2 ,3 8 0
1 9 ,8 6 9

6 2 ,3 5 3
1 4 ,3 1 9
2 6 ,0 6 3
2 1 ,9 7 1

5 , 166
2 ,7 4 7
83
2 ,3 3 6

9 ,1 4 7
3 ,3 6 2
3 ,6 8 3
2 , 102

2 6 ,6 6 6
5, 928
4 ,3 7 2
1 6 ,3 6 6

3 2 ,4 2 2
7 ,6 8 5
6 , 077
1 8 ,6 6 0

5 ,8 0 7
1 ,4 8 3
106
4 ,2 1 8

5 ,7 5 6
1 ,7 5 7
1 ,7 0 5
2 ,2 9 4

B o th s e x e s
14 y e a r s and o v e r . . . .
M ale
14 y e a r s and o v e r . . . .
1 4 -2 4 y e a r s . . . . . . . .
2 5 -4 4 y e a r s • • • • • • • •
45 y e a r s and o v e r . • •
F e m a le
14 y e a r s and o v e r . . • •
1 4 -2 4 y e a r s • • • • • • • •
2 5 -3 4 y e a r s .............. .. •
35 y e a r s and o v e r . • •

1 D e ta ile d d ata sh ow n in A p p en d ix ta b le A - l .
S o u rce: U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , and
U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f L a b o r , B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t is t ic s .




41
T he n u m b er o f w o m en w o r k e r s w ill in c r e a s e b y m o r e than 5 3 /4 m illio n
and m e n b y m o r e than 5 m illio n . A s in the p a s t, p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s w ill be
an im p o r ta n t d e te r m in a n t o f the c h a n g e s in the la b o r fo r c e . T he sh arp
in c r e a s e s in the p o p u la tio n 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s o f a ge w ill r e s u lt in the a d d itio n
o f o v e r 4 m illio n w o r k e r s in th e se a g e s , d e sp ite s m a ll d e c lin e s in th e ir
la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s . T h ere w ill b e a lm o s t no ch a n g e in e ith e r
the p o p u la tio n o r la b o r fo r c e fo r m e n in a g e s 2 5 -4 4 . (T h e n u m b er o f m e n
w o r k e r s 2 5 -3 4 w ill be ab ou t 6 0 0 ,0 0 0 s m a lle r in 1965 than 10 y e a r s e a r lie r
but the 3 5 -4 4 group w ill in c r e a s e b y ab ou t 7 0 0 ,0 0 0 .) P o p u la tio n grow th w ill
a ls o a c c o u n t fo r the 2 1 /4 m illio n r is e am on g m en 4 5 -6 4 . T h ere w ill
be v ir tu a lly no ch an ge in the m a le la b o r fo r c e 65 y e a r s and o v e r d e sp ite the
r is in g p o p u la tio n , b e c a u s e o f the r e d u c e d la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te .
A m on g ad u lt w o m e n , the n u m b er of w o r k e r s 2 5 -3 4 w ill r e m a in a lm o s t
u n ch a n g ed , w ith the r is in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te ju s t ab ou t m a k in g
up fo r the s m a lle r p o p u la tio n in th is age g ro u p . P o p u la tio n in c r e a s e s in th e
a g e g ro u p s 35 and o v e r to g e th e r w ith g r e a te r p r o p o r tio n s in the w o rk fo r c e
w ill add m o r e than 4 m illio n w o m e n in t h e s e a g e s to the la b o r f o r c e
b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965.
C h a n g es B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975.
In the 10 y e a r s fr o m 1965 to 1 9 7 5 , the la b o r fo r c e is e x p e c te d to
in c r e a s e b y 15 m illio n w o r k e r s to n e a r ly 95 m illio n . U n lik e the la b o r fo r c e
c h a n g e s in the p r e v io u s d e c a d e , m e n w ill p r o v id e a g r e a te r p a r t o f the
g ro w th (o v e r 9 m illio n ) than w ill the w o m e n (5 3 /4 m illio n ). The
n u m b er o f young w o r k e r s u n d er 25 y e a r s o f a g e w ill co n tin u e to in c r e a s e
s h a r p ly --m o r e than 5 m illio n . T h ere w ill be a su b sta n tia l in c r e a s e o f m o r e
than 4 m illio n in the n u m b er of m e n w o r k e r s 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s o f a g e and a drop
o f 6 0 0 , 000 in the a g e grou p 3 5 -4 4 , c o r r e sp o n d in g to the p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s.
A b ou t 1 3 /4 m illio n m e n 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s o f a g e w ill a ls o be ad ded and a g a in
the d e c lin in g r a te o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n fo r m e n 65 and o v e r w ill h o ld
dow n the la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e in th is a g e grou p to o n ly 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 e v e n
though the p o p u la tio n in th is grou p is e x p e c te d to grow b y 1 l / 2
m il 1 io n .
A t th e sa m e tim e , the in c r e a s e in the n u m b er o f a d u lt w o m en in the
la b o r fo r c e (4 m illio n ) is e x p e c te d to be so m e w h a t s m a lle r than in th e p e r io d
1955 to 1965. T h eir la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s a r e e x p e c te d to r i s e ,
b u t it s e e m s u n lik e ly th a t the g a in s w ill co n tin u e a t the sa m e r a te a s in the
p r e v io u s d e c a d e . F o r one th in g , it is e s tim a te d th at th e ir r a te s w ill b e
q u ite h ig h b y 1965 and w ill h a v e b e e n r a is e d to th at p o in t b y the a d d itio n o f
m a n y w o m en w h o se w o rk a c tiv ity is m a r g in a l in the s e n s e o f n ot b e in g fu ll
tim e or fu ll y e a r and d ep en d in g to so m e e x te n t u p on la b o r d em a n d r a th e r
than on e c o n o m ic n e c e s s it y a lo n e . H ow m u ch the p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in the
la b o r fo r c e w ill in c r e a s e w ill d ep en d upon m a n y fa c to r s su ch a s a v a ila b ility
o f jo b s , lo c a tio n of jo b s , and h o u r s o f w o r k . M o r e o v e r , the c o m p e titio n o f
la r g e r n u m b e r s o f young a d u lt m e n (not tru e in 1 9 5 5 -6 5 ) co u ld w e ll h a v e a
d a m p en in g e ffe c t on the r a te o f in c r e a s e in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n fo r
w om en.




42
T ren d s in P a r t-tim e and F u ll- t im e E m p lo y m e n t
Up to th is p o in t, the d is c u s s io n h a s r e la te d e n tir e ly to the c h a n g e s in
the n u m b er o f w o r k e r s b y a ge and s e x . S in ce the n u m e r ic a l in c r e a s e w ill
c o n s is t to a la r g e e x te n t o f y o u n g er w o r k e r s and a d u lt w o m e n , a m on g w h om
p a r t - t im e 24 w o rk is q u ite p r e v a le n t, the tr e n d s in p a r t-tim e and fu ll-tim e
e m p lo y m e n t w e r e p r o je c te d to a s s e s s the e ffe c t on the to ta l am ou n t o f la b o r
in p u t to be e x p e c te d fr o m the fu tu re la b o r fo r c e .
T he a v e r a g e n u m b er o f h o u r s w o rk ed in a w e e k d iffe r m a r k e d ly am o n g
the v a r io u s a g e - s e x g r o u p s. L e s s than 10 p e r c e n t o f m e n in the a g e s 2 5 -5 4
w o r k p a r t tim e , c o m p a r e d w ith a lm o s t 50 p e r c e n t o f te e n a g e b o y s , and
ab ou t 25 p e r c e n t o f w o m en o v e r 35 and o f m e n o v e r 65 (ta b le 13).
T ab le 13. H o u rs d istr ib u tio n o f p e r s o n s a t w o r k , b y a g e and s e x ,
an n u a l a v e r a g e 1955
P e r c e n t d is tr ib u tio n b y h o u r s w o rk ed
A g e and s e x
B o th s e x e s
14 y e a r s and o v e r . . •
M ale
14 y e a r s and o v e r . . .
1 4 - 19 y e a r s .................
2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .................
2 5 -5 4 y e a r s .................
5 5 -6 4 y e a r s .............. ..
65 y e a r s and o v e r . .
F e m a le
14 y e a r s and o v e r . . .
1 4 -1 9 y e a r s .................
2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .................
2 5 -3 4 y e a r s .................
35 y e a r s and o v e r . •

N u m b er
at w ork
(th o u sa n d s)

F u ll tim e
P a r t tim e
T o ta l (35 h o u r s
o r m o r e ) T o ta l 1 5 -3 4 1 -1 4
hour s h ou rs

6 0 ,2 6 2

100. 0

8 2 .9

17. 1

12. 9

4 1 ,4 3 0
2 , 581
2 ,8 9 6
2 8 ,1 9 9
5, 501
2 ,2 5 7

100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.

0
0
0
0
0
0

8 7 .4
5 1. 0
8 6 .4
9 1 .7
8 8 .2
73. 3

12. 6
49. 0
13. 6
8 .3
11. 8
2 6 .7

9 .7 2 .9
2 9 . 2 19. 8
1 0 .7 2 . 8
7 .2
1. 1
9 .6 2. 1
18. 3 8 .4

1 8 ,8 2 9
1 ,7 4 9
2 ,2 0 8
3 ,8 3 6
1 1 ,0 3 9

100.
100.
100.
100.
100.

0
0
0
0
0

73. 0
56. 3
81. 1
76. 5
7 2 .7

27. 0
4 3 .7
1 8 .9
23. 5
27. 3

19. 8 7 . 3
2 1 .7 2 2 . 0
1 4 .7 4 .2
1 8 .4 5. 1
2 0 .9 6 .4

4. 3

N ote: B e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g , su m s o f in d iv id u a l ite m s do not n e c e s s a r ily
eq u a l to ta ls .
S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s.
2 4 F u ll-tim e w o rk is d e fin e d a s c o n s is tin g o f 35 h o u r s or m o r e p e r
w e e k and p a r t-tim e a s l e s s than 35 h o u r s .




43
T h ere a r e s e v e r a l r e a s o n s fo r th e s e d iffe r e n c e s* A tten d in g sc h o o l
is the p r im a r y a c tiv ity o f m a n y t e e n - a g e r s w ho a r e in the la b o r fo r c e . A s
a r e s u lt , th e y ca n w o rk o n ly a fte r sc h o o l h o u r s or on S a tu rd a y . S in ce
young p e o p le w ho a r e b oth stu d e n ts and w orkers c o m p r is e a lm o s t o n e -h a lf
the n u m b er o f 1 4 -1 9 y e a r - o ld s in the la b o r f o r c e , the a ge group a s a w h o le
h a s a h e a v y w e ig h tin g o f p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s . A lth ou gh a m a jo r ity o f
w o m en w o rk fu ll tim e , h o m e r e s p o n s ib ilit ie s p r e v e n t so m e fr o m d oin g s o .
M o r e o v e r , th e n u m b er o f p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s h a s in c r e a s e d s te a d ily in
r e c e n t y e a r s . B e tw e e n 1947 and 1 9 5 6 , a p e r io d w h en the n u m b er o f p e r s o n s
a t w o rk in c r e a s e d b y 6. 3 m illio n , p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s a c c o u n te d fo r a lm o s t
3 m illio n o f th is in c r e a s e .
The tren d to w a rd m o r e p a r t-tim e w o r k e r p a r tic ip a tio n in the la b o r
fo r c e w ill p r o b a b ly co n tin u e due to the fo llo w in g fa c to r s :
1* T he p r o p o r tio n o f young w o r k e r s w ho a r e a ls o a tten d in g sc h o o l is
e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b e c a u s e m a n y m o r e b o y s and g ir ls than fo r m e r ly
fin is h h ig h sc h o o l and go to c o lle g e . S in ce th e s e stu d en t w o r k e r s a r e
p r im a r ily p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , th e in c r e a s e d w e ig h tin g o f the sc h o o l grou p
w ill u n d o u b ted ly in c r e a s e the p r o p o r tio n o f young p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s .
2.
P a r tic ip a tio n r a te s o f a d u lt w o m en h a v e in c r e a s e d s te a d ily in
r e c e n t y e a r s and in so m e c a s e s h a v e e x c e e d e d th e ir w a r tim e p e a k s . T h is
h a s b e e n a c c o m p a n ie d b y an in c r e a s e in p a r t-tim e w o rk . T he p r o p o r tio n
o f w o m e n 35 and o v e r in n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l e m p lo y m e n t w ho w o rk l e s s than
35 h o u r s a w e e k in c r e a s e d fr o m 2 3 .4 p e r c e n t in 1947 to 2 6 .4 p e r c e n t in
1956. 25 M o r e o v e r , d ata sh o w th at m o s t o f the p a r t-tim e w o rk is b y ch o ice#
It is th e r e fo r e r e a so n a b le to a s s u m e th at m a n y o f the a d u lt w o m en w ho a r e
e x p e c te d to e n te r the la b o r fo r c e w ill be a b le to do so o n ly on a p a r t-tim e
b asis#
3.
The S o c ia l S e c u r ity A c t w a s r e c e n tly a m en d ed to r a is e the
m a x im u m e a r n in g s r e tir e d w o r k e r s a r e p e r m itte d b e fo r e b e n e fits u n d er
s o c ia l s e c u r ity a r e su sp e n d e d . T h is m a y in d u ce m o r e o ld e r w o r k e r s to tak e
p a r t-tim e w o r k in s te a d o f d ro p p in g out o f the la b o r fo r c e a lto g e th e r .
M eth od o f P r o je c tin g P a r t - t im e and F u ll-tim e W o r k e r s
The c o n tin u a tio n o f the a b o v e tr e n d s a s w e ll a s the c h a n g e s in the a g e s e x str u c tu r e o f the la b o r fo r c e b y 1965 and 1975 w ill h a v e a d ir e c t e ffe c t
on the h o u r s w o r k e d , e v e n a s s u m in g no in stitu tio n a l c h a n g e s in h o u r s o f
w o r k . In o r d e r to e v a lu a te the im p a c t o f the ch a n g in g la b o r fo r c e c o m p o ­
s itio n on h o u r s o f w o r k , p r o je c tio n s o f h o u r s w o rk ed w e r e m a d e s e p a r a te ly
fo r e a c h a g e - s e x g rou p fo r w h ich la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e . T he
p r o p o r tio n s o f the p o p u la tio n w o rk in g 1 -1 4 h o u r s , 1 5 -3 4 , and 35 h o u r s o r
m o r e w e r e p r o je c te d to 1975. S in ce both la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s and
2 5 U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u rren t
P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o . 7 5 , W om en P a s t T h ir ty -F iv e in
the L a b o r F o r c e : 1947 to 1956.




4 4

the h o u r s d istr ib u tio n w e r e b a se d on p o p u la tio n , it w a s p o s s ib le to k eep
the p r o je c tio n s of h o u r s o f w o rk c o n s is te n t w ith the c h a n g e s p r o je c te d in
the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n ra tes*
D ata fo r 1948 to 1956 w e r e u s e d in p r o je c tin g h o u r s d istr ib u tio n up
to 1975. S in ce in fo r m a tio n on h o u r s b y stu d en t sta tu s w a s a v a ila b le o n ly
fo r O c to b e r , th at m on th w a s u s e d . The d istr ib u tio n s b y h o u r s w e r e c h a r te d
and the tr e n d s p r o je c te d to 197 5 a s fo llo w s:
F o r m e n in a g e s 25 to 64 the p r o p o r tio n s w o rk in g in e a c h c a te g o r y o f
h o u r s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t a t 1955 le v e ls sin c e th e r e w a s no e v id e n c e o f
c o n s is te n t ch an ge in r e c e n t y e a r s .
The h o u r s d istr ib u tio n s fo r m e n 65 y e a r s and o v e r w e r e c h a r te d and
p r o je c te d s e p a r a te ly b y fa r m and n o n fa rm g r o u p in g s. The h o u r s d is tr ib u ­
tio n s o f th o se in n o n fa rm e m p lo y m e n t in th is a g e grou p sh o w ed th at a ll the
n o n fa rm d e c lin e h a s ta k en p la c e a m o n g fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s and th at the p a r ttim e p r o p o r tio n h a s in c r e a s e d v e r y s lig h tly . S im ila r ly the d e c lin e in the
fa r m s e c t o r s h a s b e e n p r im a r ily a m o n g .fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s . (S ee c h a r t 7 .)
F o r the to ta l a ge g ro u p , the p r o je c te d tr e n d s w ill p r o v id e so m e in c r e a s e in
the n u m b er o f p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , ju s t ab ou t o ffse ttin g the d e c lin e s a m on g
f u ll-tim e w o r k e r s .
F o r p e r s o n s in a g e g r o u p s u n d er 25 y e a r s , the h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s
w e r e c h a r te d and p r o je c te d s e p a r a te ly fo r stu d e n ts and n o n stu d e n ts. T he
h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t fo r n o n stu d en t w o r k e r s , m o s t o f
w h o m h a v e fu ll- t im e jo b s . F o r stu d en t w o r k e r s , s m a ll in c r e a s e s w e r e
a llo w e d in the p r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n o f m e n a g ed 1 8 -1 9 w o rk in g p a r t - t im e ,
in the p r o p o r tio n s o f m e n 2 0 -2 4 w o rk in g p a r t tim e and fu ll t im e , and in the
p r o p o r tio n s o f g ir ls 2 0 -2 4 w o rk in g p a r t tim e . T he o th er g r o u p s w e r e h e ld
c o n sta n t.
A lth ou gh m u ch of the in c r e a s e d w o r lc a c tiv ity o f a d u lt w o m en h a s b e e n
in the f u ll- t im e g r o u p , th e r e h a s b e e n so m e r is e in the p r o p o r tio n w o rk in g
p a r t tim e . B oth the fu ll- t im e and p a r t-tim e p r o p o r tio n s fo r e a c h age grou p
a m o n g a d u lt w o m en w e r e , th e r e fo r e , a llo w e d to in c r e a s e . T he p a s t tr e n d s
and the p r o je c tio n s fo r w o m e n a g ed 5 5 -6 4 a r e sh ow n in c h a r t 8.
T h e se e x tr a p o la tio n s o f h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s m a d e on an O cto b er b a s is
w e r e la te r c o n v e r te d to a n n u a l a v e r a g e le v e l s . T he c h a n g e s in d is tr ib u tio n
fr o m O cto b er 1955 to O c to b e r I9 6 0 and in e a c h su b se q u e n t 5 -y e a r p e r io d
w e r e a d d ed to the 1955 a n n u a l a v e r a g e h o u r s d istr ib u tio n fo r e a c h a g e g ro u p .
The p r o je c te d d is tr ib u tio n s w e r e th en a p p lie d to the p r o je c te d p o p u la tio n
b y a g e and s e x to o b ta in the n u m b er in e a c h o f the c a t e g o r ie s , 1 -1 4 h o u r s ,
1 5 -3 4 and 35 h o u r s or m o r e .




-4 5 Chart 7.

P ro je cte d

P ercent

of

W o rk in g

M ale

P o p u la tio n

Full T im e

and

65

Y ears

and

O ver

P a r t T im e

Percent

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENTOF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS




Sources:U.S. Bureau of the Census;
Bureau of Labor Statistics

-4 6 Chart 8.

P r o je cte d

Percent

of

W o rk in g
Percent

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

F em a le

P op u la tion

Full T im e

and

5 5 -6 4

Y ears

O ld

P a r t T im e
Percent

Sources. U. S. Bureau of the Census;
Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 UREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

The p r o je c tio n s o f h o u r s , th en , tak e a cco u n t o f r e c e n t tr e n d s in the
h o u r s w o rk ed b y e a c h a g e - s e x g ro u p , and the in c r e a s e e x p e c te d in e a c h
a g e - s e x grou p in the la b o r fo r c e . N o a llo w a n c e w a s m a d e fo r an y g e n e r a l
ch a n g e in the w o rk w eek su ch a s m ig h t r e s u lt fr o m a g r e e m e n ts r e a c h e d b y
c o lle c tiv e b a r g a in in g , or fr o m e n a c tm e n t o f le g is la tio n .
C h a n g es in the P a r t - t im e C o m p o sitio n o f the F u tu re L a b o r F o r c e
B y 1 9 6 5 , th e r e w ill b e about 15 m illio n p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s in the la b o r
f o r c e , an in c r e a s e o f 3. 8 m illio n o v e r th e ir n u m b er in 1955 (tab le 14). The
p a r t-tim e g ro u p , w h ich c o m p r is e s a p p r o x im a te ly 15 p e r c e n t o f the to ta l
la b o r fo r c e , w ill a c c o u n t fo r 35 p e r c e n t of the 11 m illio n g ro w th in the la b o r
fo r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965. Y oung w o r k e r s u n d er 25 y e a r s o f age w ill
m a k e the h e a v ie s t c o n trib u tio n to the g ro w th in the p a r t-tim e la b o r f o r c e - in c r e a s in g b y 1. 9 m illio n to 4. 8 m illio n in 1965. W om en o v e r 35 w ill
p r o v id e a lm o s t a ll the r e s t o f the a d d itio n a l p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , in c r e a s in g
b y 1. 3 m illio n to 4 . 3 m illio n in 1965 (c h a r t 9).
B e tw e e n 1965 and 1 9 7 5 , the n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s w ill co n tin u e
to in c r e a s e su b s ta n tia lly b ut not a s m u ch a s in the p r e c e d in g d e c a d e . T h ey
w ill exp an d b y 3. 4 m illio n to 17. 5 m illio n w h ile the to ta l la b o r fo r c e w ill
in c r e a s e b y 15 m illio n . The n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s u n d er 25 w ill
in c r e a s e b y 1. 7 m illio n to 6. 5 m illio n . T h is in c r e a s e w ill be s m a lle r than
in the p r e c e d in g d eca d e p r im a r ily b e c a u s e the p r o p o r tio n w ho w ill be both
stu d e n ts and p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s is not e x p e c te d to exp an d a s m u ch a s in the




47
Chart

9.

P ro je c te d

Changes
by

Age

G roups

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS




in N u m b e r
and

of

F u ll-T im e

Sex,

1 9 5 5 -6 5

and
and

P a rt-T im e
1 9 6 5 -7 5

W orkers,

48
T ab le 14. P e r s o n s at w o rk b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e s ta tu s , b y s e x ,
an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 19 7 5 1
(M illio n s of p e r s o n s ! 4 y e a r s old and o v e r )
N e t ch a n g e f r o m - 1955
S e x and h o u r s w o rk ed
1965
1975
1 9 5 5 -6 5
1 9 6 5 -7 5
B oth s e x e s
T o ta l la b o r f o r c e ...............................
T o ta l at w o r k 2................
F u ll tim e
(35 h o u r s or m o r e ). . . . . . .
P a r t t i m e ..............................
1 5 -3 4 h o u r s .................................
1 -1 4 h o u r s . ...................

6 8 .9
60. 3

7 9 .9
71. 0

9 4. 8
84. 6

11. 0
10. 7

14. 9
13. 6

4 9 .9
10. 3
7. 8
2. 6

5 6 .9
14. 1
10. 3
3. 8

6 7. 1
17. 5
1 2 .7
4 .8

7.
3.
2.
1.

0
8
5
2

10. 2
3 .4
2. 4
1 .0

48. 0
4 1 .4

53. 2
4 6 .7

6 2 .4
55. 1

5 .2
5. 3

9 .2
8 .4

3 6. 2
5. 2
4. 0
1. 2

3 9 .8
6 .9
5. 2
1 .7

4 6 .6
8. 5
6 .4
2. 1

3. 6
1. 7
1. 2
.5

6. 8
1. 6
1 .2
.4

20. 9
18. 8

2 6. 7
2 4. 3

3 2 .4
29. 5

5. 8
5. 5

5 .7
5. 2

13. 7
5. 1
3 .7
1 .4

17.
7.
5.
2.

20. 5
9. 0
6. 3
2 .7

3. 4
2. 1
1 .4
.7

3 .4
1. 8
1. 2
.6

M a le s
T o ta l la b o r f o r c e ........... .. ..............
T o ta l at w o rk 2...................................
F u ll tim e
(35 h o u r s o r m o r e ). ..............
P a r t t i m e ..........................................
1 5 -3 4 h o u r s ..................................
1 -1 4 h o u r s ...................... ..
F e m a le s
T o ta l la b o r f o r c e ...............................
T o ta l at w o rk 2...................... ..
F u ll tim e
(35 h o u r s o r m o r e ) .................
P a r t t i m e ..............................
1 5 -3 4 h o u r s ................................
1 -1 4 h o u r s .................................

1
2
1
1

1 D e ta ile d d ata sh ow n in A p p en d ix ta b le A - 2.
2 E x c lu d e s m e m b e r s o f the A r m e d F o r c e s , u n em p lo y ed p e r s o n s , and
th o se w ith a job but not a t w o rk fo r r e a s o n s su ch a s v a c a tio n or illn e s s .
N o te: B e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g , su m s of in d iv id u a l ite m s do n ot n e c e s s a r ily
eq u a l to ta ls .
S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u of the C e n su s and
U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of L a b o r , B u rea u o f L ab or S t a t is t ic s .




49
e a r lie r p e r io d . T he in c r e a s e in p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s am o n g w o m en 35 y e a r s
and o v e r (7 0 0 ,0 0 0 ) w ill a ls o be l e s s than in the p r e v io u s d e c a d e . T h is w ill
r e s u lt la r g e ly fr o m a s m a lle r o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e in th is a ge g ro u p .
H o w e v e r , w o m en 25 to 34 w ill p r o v id e 500, 000 a d d itio n a l p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s .
A la r g e r n u m b er o f fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s w ill be ad d ed to the la b o r fo r c e
b e tw e e n 1965 and 1975 than in the p r e c e d in g 10 y e a r s . T h is w ill r e f le c t
p r im a r ily the g r e a te r n u m b er o f ad u lt m a le w o r k e r s w ho a r e p r im a r ily
fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s .
Im p lic a tio n s
H ow w ill the c h a n g e s in the a g e - s e x str u c tu r e o f the la b o r fo r c e and
the g r e a te r n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s a ffe c t the q u a lity o f the w o r k fo r c e ,
la b o r in p u t,an d la b o r fo r c e tu r n o v e r in the y e a r s ah ead ? D e sp ite a su b sta n ­
tia l in c r e a s e in to ta l la b o r fo r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1 9 6 5 , th e r e w ill be a
s c a r c it y o f w o r k e r s in so m e a g e s and an a m p le su p p ly in o th e r s . T h ere
w ill be a sh o r ta g e of m a le w o r k e r s in the im p o r ta n t a g e g ro u p s fr o m 25 to
44 y e a r s , w h ich n o r m a lly su p p ly the s k ille d w o r k e r s r e q u ir e d to r e p la c e
l o s s e s c r e a te d b y d eath and r e tir e m e n t and to f ill exp an d in g n e e d s c r e a te d
b y a d v a n cin g te c h n o lo g y . T h is situ a tio n sh ou ld be fa v o r a b le to the o ld e r
w o r k e r . B e c a u s e the o v e r a ll n ee d fo r w o r k e r s w ill be r is in g w h ile the
n u m b er o f m e n in the c e n tr a l a g e s w ill not be in c r e a s in g , o ld e r w o r k e r s
w ill be in g r e a te r d em a n d . E m p lo y e r s w ill tr y to k eep th e ir e x p e r ie n c e d
o ld e r w o r k e r s w ho w ill g e n e r a lly be m o r e q u a lifie d to f ill the gap in s k ille d
jo b s c r e a te d b y the r e la tiv e ly sh o r t su p p ly o f m e n in the c e n tr a l a g e s .
M o r e o v e r , e m p lo y e r s w ill h a v e to fin d the a d d itio n s to th e ir s k ille d s ta ffs
a m o n g the la r g e n u m b e r s o f young w o r k e r s and a d u lt w o m en w ho w ill be
e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e d u rin g the sa m e p e r io d . The in c o m in g grou p w ill
b e ad eq u ate in n u m b er but m a n y o f th em w ill be in e x p e r ie n c e d and w ill
th e r e fo r e r e q u ir e tr a in in g . E m p lo y e r s m a y h a v e to c o n s id e r u sin g w o m en
w o r k e r s in a v a r ie ty o f jo b s n ot p r e v io u s ly op en to w o m en . T h is too w ill
m e a n job tr a in in g . S om e of the w o m en r e tu rn in g to the w o r k fo r c e w ill
h a v e u sa b le job e x p e r ie n c e and s k ills a c q u ir e d in e a r lie r p e r io d s of
e m p lo y m e n t, but o th e r s w ill r e q u ir e tr a in in g or a t le a s t r e tr a in in g in
p r e v io u s s k ills .
C o m p a red w ith the r e la tiv e sh o r ta g e o f s k ille d w o r k e r s , a g r e a t
m a n y u n s k ille d w o r k e r s w ill be c o m p e tin g fo r jo b s b e c a u s e the n u m b er of
w o m e n e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e and the n u m b er o f young p e o p le r e a c h in g
w o rk in g a g e in the n ex t d eca d e w ill be so la r g e . M o r e o v e r , so m e r e tir e d
w o r k e r s w ill be se e k in g p a r t-tim e , l e s s s k ille d jo b s and th e y w ill a ls o add
to the c o m p e titio n . T h e r e fo r e , the a m o u n t and q u a lity o f e d u c a tio n and
v o c a tio n a l tr a in in g w ill b e v e r y im p o r ta n t in th is c o m p e titiv e situ a tio n .
A lth ou gh a m a jo r ity o f the w o m en and you n g w o r k e r s e n te r in g the
la b o r fo r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 w ill be se e k in g fu ll-tim e jo b s , a
su b sta n tia l n u m b er w ill w an t o n ly p a r t-tim e w o r k . F r o m the e m p lo y e r s 1
p o in t o f v ie w , it m a y m ea n the r e s c h e d u lin g o f m a n y jo b s to a p a r t-tim e
b a s is . T h is w ou ld be an e x te n s io n o f the tren d th at h a s b e e n d e v e lo p in g in




50
m any trade and service estab lish m en ts, where much of the recent in crease
in p art-tim e em ploym ent has occurred.
In turn, the number of part-tim e jobs that w ill be available m ay
influence the supply of w orkers. The recent in crea ses in labor force
participation rates of m arried women have undoubtedly been partially due
to expanding part-tim e job opportunities in suburban stores and service
estab lish m en ts. If sufficient additional part-tim e jobs are not available,
there m ay not be as much continued in crease as projected in the labor force
participation rates for this group. 26
The extent of labor force participation on the part of students is also
dependent upon the availability of part-tim e jobs. T herefore, the propor­
tion of students in the labor force m ay declin e, if the number of short-hour
jobs does not keep pace with the supply of student labor offered. Another
aspect of the situation is that m any young people need jobs to help pay the
high costs of college education, i. e. , having a job m akes the difference
betw een being able to go to school or not. T herefore, if p art-tim e jobs
are not available, the number of college students m ay not in crease as
much as indicated in these projections, and those who cannot afford to
continue in school w ill becom e fu ll-tim e w orkers.
The in creased proportion of part-tim e w orkers in the labor force
w ill, of cou rse, affect the average number of hours worked per week by
all p erson s. A rough computation indicates that in 1965 average w eekly
hours of work m ay be about one-half hour le s s than in 1955 as a resu lt of
the in creased proportion of part-tim e w orkers in the labor force. Between
1965 and 1975 average w eekly hours w ill not be affected much because the
in crease in part-tim e w orkers w ill be offset by an in crease in the number
of adult m ale w ork ers, p articularly in ages 25-34, alm ost all of whom
work full tim e.
The addition of so many young w orkers and m arried women to the
labor force during the years ahead w ill undoubtedly resu lt in an in crease
in the number of w orkers who change jobs or who work only part of the
year. Young w orkers tend to try m ore than one job before settling into
a perm anent career. M oreover, both young w orkers and m arried wom en
frequently move into and out of the labor force as their personal circu m ­
stances change. For exam ple, som e m arried women work during the
2
6 The question of availability of this large additional number of parttim e jobs is being studied by the Bureau of Labor S ta tistics, in connection
with its research program on industrial and occupational trends and outlook.




51
school year but leave the labor force during the sum m er months when their
school-age children are hom e. Some students work only part of the year
depending upon the p ressu re of their school a ctiv ities. This contrasts
sharply with the custom ary pattern for adult m en to work all year on a fu ll­
tim e b a s is .2 7
Some of the wom en who are p art-year w orkers will gontinue their
pattern of interm ittent labor force attachm ent throughout their working
y ears. For young m en, on the other hand, the part-year or part-tim e
pattern rep resen ts only a tem porary situation preceding their perm anent,
fu ll-tim e labor force activity. While m ovem ent into and out of the labor
force im p lies som e lo ss of training and efficien cy, actually these w orkers
provide a flexible source of labor supply. If em ployers select w orkers
with care, taking into account the in d ivid u als probable future work patterns
and cap ab ilities, they can find w orkers to fill many of their manpower needs
among these p art-year and p art-tim e groups. For exam ple, som e can be
used for tem porary expansion of the work force to m eet seasonal needs;
others can be used for year-round part-tim e work that req u ires little
training; and still others can be trained for eventual perm anent fu ll-tim e
em ploym ent.

2 7 C ensus Bureau data on m onthly m ovem ents into and out of the labor
force indicate that only about 1 out of every 100 m ale w orkers betw een ages
25 and 64 enters or leaves the labor force each month. Even for those in
ages over 64, le s s than 10 percent leave or reenter the work force. In
contrast, an average of alm ost 20 percent of teen -a gers who w ere in the
work force in one month w ere not in the labor force in the previous month,
and about the sam e proportion of this age group withdraw each month.
Although the proportionate m ovem ent for adult wom en is not quite so high
as that of the teen-age group--about 10 p er c en t--it still rep resen ts a very
large labor force turnover.




52
Table A - l. Population, total labor force, and labor force participation
ra tes, by age and sex, actual 1955 and projected 1960-75
Age and sex
Both sexes
14 years and over....................
Male
14 years and o v e r .. . . . . . . .
14-19 y e a rs.............................
14- 17 y e a r s ........................
18-19 years .........................
20-24 y e a r s.............................
25- 34 y e a r s.............................
35-44 y e a r s.............................
45- 54 y e a rs...............• • • • • •
55-64 y e a r s............ ................
65 years and over*...............
Fem ale
14 years and over............
14-19 y e a r s.............................
14- 17 y e a r s.........................
18-19 years ........................
20-24 y ea rs.............................
25-34 y e a r s.............................
35-44 y e a r s ............................
45-54 y e a r s.............................
55-64 y e a r s.............................
65 years and o v e r ...............




Total population, July (thousands)
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
118,846 126, 528 138,127 150,691 163,704
58,344
6, 896
4,696
2,200
5,399
11,878
11,182
9,336
7,094
6,559

61,765
8,218
5,700
2, 518
5,703
11,309
11,731
10,180
7, 505
7, 119

67,239
10,676
7,304
3,372
6, 808
11,229
11,913
10,726
8, 144
7,743

73,247
11, 878
8,089
3,789
8,791
12,614
11,351
11,278
8,936
8,399

79,540
12, 574
8, 365
4,209
9,794
15,671
11,290
11,480
9,471
9,260

60, 502
6, 682
4, 542
2, 140
5,367
12,258
11, 627
9, 564
7,4 35
7, 568

64,763
7,957
5, 504
2,453
5, 608
11,515
12, 252
10,666
8, 105
8,660

70, 888
10,267
7,0 28
3,239
6,694
11, 298
12,375
11,404
8,955
9,895

77,444
11,437
7,786
3, 651
8, 552
12, 608
11,639
12,028
10,030
11,150

84,164
12,105
8, 049
4, 056
9, 537
15, 542
11,437
12,168
10,763
12,612

53
•Table A - 1. Population, total labor force, and labor force participation
rates, by age and sex, actual 1955 and projected 1960-75--C ontinued
Age and sex
Both sexes
14 years and over....................
Male
14 years and over............
14-19 y e a r s.............................
14-17 years .. . .................
18-19 years • • • .................
20-24 y e a r s.............................
25-34 y e a r s ............................
35-44 y e a r s.............................
45- 54 y e a r s.................
55- 64 y e a r s.............................
65 years and o v er................
F em ale
14 years and o v e r ..................
14- 19 y e a r s.............................
14-17 years ........................
18-19 years ........................
20-24 y e a r s............ ................
25- 34 y e a r s.............................
35-44 y e a r s.............................
45- 54 y e a r s............ ................
55-64 y e a r s ............................
65 years and o v er................




Total labor force, ;a nnual averages (thousands)
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
68,899 73, 550 79,872 87,092 94,775
48, 040 49,971
3,378 3,939
1,696 2,035
1, 682 1, 904
4,832 5,024
11,462 10,913
10, 835 11,367
8,879 9,681
6,129 6,484
2,525 2, 563

53,206
5, 034
2,549
2,485
5,923
10,836
11,544
10,200
7,036
2,633

57,443
5, 534
2,783
2,751
7, 587
12,173
10,999
10,725
7,721
2,704

62,353
5,896
2, 861
3,035
8,423
15, 123
10,940
10,917
8, 183
2,871

20,859 23,579 26,666 29,649 32,422
1,987 2, 276 2,896 3, 180 3,374
899 1, 145 1,448 1,588 1, 642
1, 088 1, 131 1,448 1, 592 1,732
2,458 2,546 3,032 3, 866 4, 311
4,266 4,3 64 4,372 4,905 6, 077
4,814 5,268 5, 631 5,470 5,478
4, 160 5, 141 5,941 6, 555 6,814
2,394 3,031 3,636 4, 313 4,779
780
953 1, 158 1, 360 1, 589

54
Table A - 1. Population, total labor force, and labor force participation
ra tes, by age and sex, actual 1955 and projected 1960-75--Continued

Age and sex
Both sexes
14 years and over....................
Male
14 years and over....................
14-19 y e a r s.............................
14-17 years ........................
18-19 years ........................
20- 24 y ears. • • • • • * • • • • • •
25-34 y e a r s............ ................
35-44 y e a r s.............................
45-54 y e a rs.............................
55- 64 years. ...........................
65 years and o v e r ...............
F em ale
14 years and over....................
14- 19 y e a r s.............................
14-17 years .........................
18-19 y e a r s .........................
20-24 y ea rs.............................
25-34 y ears'............................
35-44 y e a r s.............................
45-54 y e a r s.............................
55-64 y e a r s.............................
65 years and over • • • • • • •

Labor force participation rate s
annual averages (percent)
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
58. 0

58. 1

57. 8

57. 8

57.9

82. 3
4 9 .0
36. 1
76. 5
89. 5
96. 5
9 6.9
95. 1
8 6 .4
38. 5

80.9
47. 9
3 5.7
75. 6
88. 1
96. 5
9 6.9
95. 1
8 6 .4
36. 0

79. 1
47. 2
3 4.9
73. 7
87. 0
96. 5
9 6 .9
95. 1
8 6 .4
34. 0

7 8 .4
4 6 .6
3 4 .4
72. 6
86. 3
96. 5
9 6.9
95. 1
8 6.4
32. 2

7 8 .4
4 6 .9
34. 2
72. 1
86. 0
96. 5
9 6.9
95. 1
8 6.4
3 1.0

3 4 .5
29.7
19. 8
50.9
4 5 .8
34. 8
4 1 .4
43. 5
3 2.2
10.3

3 6 .4
28. 6
20. 8
46. 1
4 5 .4
37.9
43. 0
48. 2
3 7 .4
11. 0

37. 6
28. 2
20. 6
4 4 .7
45. 3
38.7
4 5 .5
52. 1
40. 6
11.7

38. 3
27. 8
2 0 .4
43. 6
45. 2
3 8 .9
47. 0
54. 5
4 3 .0
12. 2

38. 5
2 7.9
2 0 .4
4 2 .7
4 5 .2
39. 1
4 7 .9
56. 0
4 4 .4
12. 6

Note: B ecause of rounding, sum s of individual item s do not n ecessa rily
equal totals.
Source: 1955 data from the U. S. Departm ent of C om m erce, Bureau of
the Census; 1960-75 population from Census Bureau*s Current Population
R eports, S eries P -2 5 , No. 187 S eries III; 1960-75 labor force projected by
the U. S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor S tatistics.




55
Table A -2. P erson s at w o rk ,1 by fu ll-tim e and part-tim e status, by age
and sex, annual averages, 1955 and projected 1960-75
Sex, age, and hours worked
Both sexes
Total at w ork.......................................
Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) .
P art tim e............................................
15-34 h o u r s ..................................
1-14 h o u r s ..................................
M ale
14 years and o v er.............................
F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) .
P art tim e...........................................
15-34 h o u r s ..................................
1-14 h o u r s ..................................
14-24 y e a r s ..........................................
F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) .
P art tim e............................................
15-34 hours . ................................
1-14 h o u r s ..................................
25-44 years • • . • ................................
Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) .
P art t i m e ........................................
15-34 hours ..................................
1-14 h o u r s ........................ .. . . .
45 years and o v e r ...........................
Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) .
P art tim e ..........................................
15- 34 hours • • • • • • : .................
1- 14 hour s ..................................
See footnote at end of table




(M illions)
1955
1960

1965

1970

1975

60.3
4 9 .9
10. 3
7. 8
2 .6

65. 3
53. 2
12. 1
9 .0
3. 1

71. 0
56.9
14. 1
10. 3
3. 8

77. 6
61.7
15.9
11. 6
4. 3

84. 6
67. 1
17. 5
12. 7
4 .8

4 1 .4
36. 2
5. 2
4. 0
1. 2
5.5
3 .8
1.7
1. 1
.6
20. 0
18. 4
1. 6
1.4
.2
15.9
14. 0
2. 0
1. 6
.4

4 3 .8
37. 8
6. 0
4 .6
1.4
6.7
4. 5
2. 2
1. 5
.7
20. 0
18.4
1. 6
1.4
.2
17. 1
14. 9
2. 2
1. 7
.5

46. 7
39. 8
6 .9
5. 2
1.7
8. 5
5. 5
2 .9
2. 0
.9
20. 1
18. 5
1.6
1.4
.2
18. 1
15. 8
2 .4
1.8
.5

50. 6
42. 8
7. 8
5. 8
1.9
10.4
6.9
3. 5
2 .4
1. 1
20.9
19. 2
1. 7
1.4
.2
19. 3
16. 7
2. 6
2. 0
.6

55. 1
46. 6
8. 5
6 .4
2. 1
11. 5
7. 6
3 .9
2.7
1.2
23. 6
21.7
1.9
1. 6
.3
20. 0
17. 3
2 .7
2. 1
.7

56
Table A -2. P erson s at w o rk ,1 by fu ll-tim e and part-tim e status, by age
and sex, annual averages, 1955 and projected 1960-75-~Continued
(M illions)
Sex, age, and hours worked

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

Fem ale
14 years and over. ..............................
Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . .
P art tim e..............................................
15-34 h o u r s .....................................
1-14 hours .....................................
14-24 years ........................... ..
F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) . .
P art tim e..............................................
15-34 hours . . ................................
1-14 h o u r s .....................................
25-34 y e a r s ............................................
Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . •
P art tim e.........................................
15-34 h o u r s .....................................
1-14 h o u r s .....................................
35 years and over...............................
F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) . .
P art tim e. ............................................
15-34 hours .....................................
1-14 h o u r s .....................................

18. 8
13.7
5. 1
3. 7
1.4
4 .0
2. 8
1. 2
.7
.5
3. 8
2.9
.9
.7
.2
11. 0
8. 0
3. 0
2. 3
.7

21. 5
15.4
6. 1
4 .4
1.7
4. 3
2 .9
1.4
.8
.6
4. 0
3. 0
1. 0
.8
.2
13. 2
9. 5
3 .7
2. 8
.9

24. 3
17. 1
7 .2
5. 1
2. 1
5. 3
3 .4
1. 9
1. 1
.8
4. 0
3 .0
1. 0
.8.
.2
15. 0
10.7
4. 3
3. 2
1. 0

27. 0
18.9
8. 1
5.8
2 .4
6. 3
4 .0
2. 3
1. 3
1. 0
4. 5
3. 3
1. 2
.9
.3
16. 2.
11. 5
4 .7
3. 5
1. 2

29. 5
20. 5
9 .0
6. 3
2 .7
6. 8
4. 3
2. 6
1. 5
1. 1
5. 6
4. 1
1. 5
1. 1
.4
17. 1
12. 1
5. 0
3 .7
1. 3

1 Excludes m em bers of the Arm ed F o rces, unemployed p erso n s, and
those with a job but not at work for reasons such as vacation or illn ess.
Note: B ecause of rounding, sum s of individual item s do not n ecessa rily
equal totals.
Source: U. S. Departm ent of C om m erce, Bureau of the C ensus, and
U. S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor S tatistics.




☆ U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1959 O -502398