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Population and Labor Force Projections for the United States, 1960 to 1975 PO PULATIO N-226 Million 1955 1975 Bulletin No. 1242 UNITED ST A T E S DEPARTM EN T O F J am es P . M itc h e ll. S e c r e t a r y BUREAU OF LABOR SIAIIS1KS Ewan Clagae. C oa a isiioN r IA B O R P o p u la tio n a n d L a b o r F o r c e P r o je c t io n s fo r th e U n ite d S ta te s , 1 9 6 0 to 1 9 7 5 Bulletin No. 1242 UNITED S T A T E S D EPARTM EN T O F LA B O R J am es P . M itc h e ll, S e c r e t a r y BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. - Price 40 cents CONTENTS I n t r o d u c t io n ........................ S u m m a r y ............. .................................................. ............................................... P o p u la tio n g ro w th fr o m 1900 to 1955 ....................................................... C h a n g es in a g e c o m p o sitio n of the p o p u la tio n • . . ............................................ S om e e ffe c ts o f p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s .............................................................................. F u tu re p o p u la tio n t r e n d s ......................................... M ethod o f p r o je c tin g p o p u la tio n ...................................................................................... P r o je c tio n s of the n u m b er now a l i v e .................................................................... N et im m ig r a tio n ................................................................................................................. P r o je c tio n s of b i r t h s ..................................................................................... P a s t tr e n d s in the b ir th r a te • • • ................................................................ • . . . E x p e c te d tr e n d s in b ir th r a te s ............................................................................ . . . L a b o r fo r c e t r e n d s .................................... • • • • • • • • • • ........................................ . . . I n c r e a s in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of w o m en ...................................... D e c lin in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of young p e r s o n s ......................... . D e c lin in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of o ld e r m en • • • • • • • • .................... C h a n g es in a g e c o m p o sitio n o f the la b o r f o r c e , 1900 to 1955 .............. M ethod of p r o je c tin g the la b o r fo r c e . • • • .............................................................. M en 2 5 -6 4 y e a r s of a g e * .................................................................................................... M en 65 y e a r s and o v e r ....................................................................................................... Y oung p e o p l e ................................................. A d u lt w o m e n ................................................................................................................... .. W om en 2 0 -4 4 y e a r s o f a g e ......................................................... .............................. W om en 45 y e a r s and o v e r ................. ........................................................................ The a g e - s e x c o m p o sitio n of the fu tu re la b o r f o r c e ...................................... C h a n g es b e tw e e n 1955 and 1 9 6 5 ................................................................................. C h a n g es b e tw e e n 1965 and 1 9 7 5 ................................................................................... T ren d s in p a r t-tim e and fu ll-tim e e m p lo y m e n t ......................................... M eth od o f p r o je c tin g p a r t-tim e and fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s ............................... C h a n g es in the p a r t-tim e c o m p o sitio n o f the fu tu re la b o r fo r c e • • • • I m p lic a t io n s ............................................................................ Page 1 2 3 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 15 20 21 21 22 22 24 25 26 31 32 38 40 40 41 42 43 46 49 C h a rts 1. B ir th r a te s , b y s e le c te d age g ro u p s and o r d e r o f b irth , 1 9 2 0 -5 5 2. P o p u la tio n and la b o r f o r c e , b y a g e and s e x , A p r il 1 9 5 7 .................... 3. P e r c e n t o f m e n and w o m en in the la b o r f o r c e , b y a g e g r o u p s, A p r il 1920, 1950, and 1957 .............................................................................. 4 . S ch o o l e n r o llm e n t and la b o r fo r c e sta tu s o f p o p u la tio n , 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s of a g e , b y s e x , O cto b er 1955 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5 .......................................................................................................................... 5. P r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in e a c h a g e g rou p w ith s p e c ifie d n u m b er of c h ild r e n ................... 6. P r o je c te d r a te s of la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n fo r w o m en 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s of a g e , b y m a r ita l s t a t u s ..................................................... 7. P r o je c te d p e r c e n t o f m a le p o p u la tio n 65 y e a r s and o v e r w o rk in g fu ll tim e and p a r t tim e • • • • .................................... .................. 8. P r o je c te d p e r c e n t o f fe m a le p o p u la tio n 5 5 -6 4 y e a r s old w o rk in g fu ll-tim e and p a r t tim e. • • • • ................................................. 9. P r o je c te d ch a n g e s in n u m b er o f fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , b y a g e g ro u p s and s e x , 1 9 5 5 -6 5 and 1 9 6 5 - 7 5 . . . . . iii 13 18 19 29 35 39 45 46 47 P age T ab le s 1. P o p u la tio n o f the U n ited S ta te s , a c tu a l, 1 9 0 0 -5 8 , and p r o je c te d , 1965 and 1975 .................................................................................................................... 2. B ir th s and b ir th r a te s in the U n ited S ta te s , 1 9 1 5 - 5 7 ............................... 3. A v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e in y e a r s a t s e le c t e d a g e s , b y c o lo r and s e x , 1900, 1940, 19 5 0 , and 1955 ............................................ 4 . A ge d istr ib u tio n o f the p o p u la tio n o f the U n ited S ta te s , 1 9 0 0 -7 5 .......................................................................... . . . . . ........................................ 5. T o ta l la b o r fo r c e , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 5 5 ..................... ............................................................ 6. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s , b y age and s e x , A p r il 1920, 1 9 50, and 1 9 5 7 ................................................................................. ................................ 7. D is tr ib u tio n o f the la b o r fo r c e , b y age and s e x , June 1900 and an n u a l a v e r a g e s , 1950 and 1955 ............................................................ 8. M ed ia n y e a r s o f sc h o o l c o m p le te d b y c iv ilia n p o p u la tio n , b y a g e , M a rch 1957 .................................................... . . . . .......................... ............... 9. P e r c e n t o f to ta l p o p u la tio n e n r o lle d in s c h o o l, b y age and s e x , a c tu a l O cto b er 1 9 4 7 -5 6 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 - 7 5 ......................... 10. P r o je c te d to ta l la b o r f o r c e , an n u al a v e r a g e s 1 9 6 0 -6 5 ...................... . 11. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r w o m en in the c iv ilia n p o p u la tio n , b y m a r ita l sta tu s and a g e , M a rch 1957 ......................... 12. T o ta l la b o r f o r c e , b y a g e and s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 1975 .............................................................................. 13. H o u r s d istr ib u tio n o f p e r s o n s at w o r k , b y a g e and s e x , an n u a l a v e r a g e 1955 .................................................................................................... 14. P e r s o n s at w o rk b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e s ta tu s , b y s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 1975 . . . . . . . . . . 3 4 6 8 16 17 23 27 28 30 31 40 42 48 A p p en d ix T a b le s A-l. P o p u la tio n , to ta l la b o r fo r c e , and la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s , b y a g e and s e x , a c tu a l 1955 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5 . . . . A -2 . P e r s o n s a t w o r k , b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e s ta tu s , b y a g e and s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5 . . . . . . IV 52 55 Population and Labor Force Projections in the United States 1960 to 19751 In tro d u ctio n K n o w led g e o f fu tu re p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e g ro w th is e s s e n t ia l in m a k in g f o r e c a s t s o f the e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l n e e d s o f our N a tio n . S o m e o f the m o r e im p o r ta n t n e e d s th at a r e r e la te d d ir e c tly to p o p u la tio n ch an ge a re h o u sin g , s c h o o ls , food su p p ly , tr a n sp o r ta tio n f a c ilit ie s and s o c ia l s e r v ic e s . L a b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s in d ic a te the n u m b er o f w o r k e r s w ho w ill b e a v a ila b le to p ro d u ce the g o o d s and s e r v ic e s r e q u ir e d b y our in c r e a s in g p o p u la tio n . U se d in co n ju n ctio n w ith in d u s tr y and o c c u p a tio n a l tr e n d s th e y can p r o v id e s p e c ific in fo r m a tio n on the k in d s of w o r k e r s w ho w ill be n e e d e d . Such in fo r m a tio n is u s e fu l to m a n y d iffe r e n t g r o u p s. E d u c a to r s n eed th e s e d ata to p la n fo r sc h o o l p r o g r a m f a c ilit ie s and te a c h e r s ; e m p lo y e r s , to p la n th e ir p e r s o n n e l and sta ffin g p r o g r a m s; g o v e r n m e n t, to p r o m o te the tr a in in g o f the N ation *s w o rk fo r c e ; and in d iv id u a ls, to c h a r t th e ir c a r e e r s . M o r e o v e r , the n atu re o f the d em an d fo r g o o d s and s e r v ic e s is a ffe c te d b y the s iz e and c o m p o sitio n o f the la b o r fo r c e b e c a u s e w o rk it s e lf c r e a t e s d em a n d s fo r c e r ta in ty p e s o f g o o d s and s e r v ic e s . An in c r e a s e in the n u m b er o f w o rk in g w iv e s , fo r e x a m p le , m e a n s a g r e a te r d em an d fo r d o m e s tic s e r v ic e s , la u n d r ie s , r e sta u r a n t m e a ls , and o th er p r o d u c ts d e sig n e d to m a k e h o u se k e e p in g e a s ie r . In a d d itio n , the added fa m ily in c o m e p r o v id e d b y w o r k in g w iv e s c r e a t e s a d em an d fo r m a n y ite m s su ch a s la r g e r and b e tte r eq u ip p ed h o u s e s , n e w e r c a r s , and n ew er fu r n itu r e than m ig h t o th e r w is e be p o s s ib le . I n c r e a s in g n u m b e r s o f young w o r k e r s c r e a te d em a n d s fo r g o o d s and se r v ic e s p e c u lia r fo r th is grou p su ch a s c o lle g e tr a in in g , s p e c ia l c lo th in g , and r e c r e a tio n a l n e e d s . T h is b u lle tin p r e s e n ts p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s to 1975 and a d e ta ile d d e s c r ip tio n of the m eth o d u se d in p r e p a r in g the la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s . T he e s t im a t e s o f the fu tu re p o p u la tio n a r e one o f the s e r ie s p u b lish e d b y the B u r e a u o f the C e n su s in th e ir C u rren t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 5 , N o. 187. B e c a u s e p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n s a r e so fu n d a m en ta l to the p r o je c tio n s of the la b o r f o r c e , an e v a lu a tio n o f p o p u la tio n tr e n d s is a ls o in clu d ed . 1 P r e p a r e d b y S op h ia C o o p er and S tu a rt G a rfin k le of the D iv is io n of M an p ow er and E m p lo y m e n t S t a t is t ic s , B u rea u of L a b o r S t a t is t ic s . (i) 2 S u m m a ry T he p r in c ip a l fin d in g s of th is stu d y o f p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e g ro w th a r e a s fo llo w s: 1. T he p o p u la tio n of the U n ited S ta te s w ill p r o b a b ly r e a c h ab ou t 226 m illio n b y 197 5. C u rren t h ig h b ir th r a te s a r e b e in g m a in ta in e d la r g e ly b e c a u s e w o m en a r e h a v in g th e ir f ir s t c h ild r e n so o n e r a fte r m a r r ia g e and th e ir a d d itio n a l c h ild r e n in m o r e ra p id s u c c e s s io n than in the r e c e n t p a st. S o m e in c r e a s e in the s iz e o f fa m ily is a ls o p a r tia lly r e s p o n s ib le fo r the r e c e n t h ig h b ir th r a te s . 2. B e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 the la b o r fo r c e in the U n ited S ta te s is e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b y 11 m illio n , a s s u m in g fa v o r a b le e c o n o m ic c o n d itio n s p r e v a il. W om en 35 y e a r s of a g e and o v e r w ill a cco u n t fo r o v e r 4 m illio n of the g ro w th a s a r e s u lt of p o p u la tio n in c r e a s e and the te n d e n c y fo r m o r e m a r r ie d w o m en t o w o rk o u tsid e the h o m e . A n o th er 4 m illio n w ill c o m e fr o m the in c r e a s e d n u m b e r s in the 1 4 -2 4 a g e g ro u p . T he g r e a te r n u m b er of m e n 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s of a g e in the p o p u la tio n w ill a cco u n t in la r g e p a r t fo r the r e m a in ing la b o r fo r c e g ro w th . A lm o s t no ch a n g e is e x p e c te d am o n g m en 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s o f a g e , b e c a u s e b y 1965, th is a ge grou p w ill in clu d e the s m a lle r n u m b er of p e r s o n s w ho w e r e b o rn d u rin g the d e p r e s s io n of th e 1930*s. 3. B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975, the la b o r fo r c e is e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b y 15 m illio n p e r s o n s . C o n tr a r y to the e a r lie r d eca d e the m a le p o p u la tio n in the c e n tr a l w o rk in g a g e s (i. e . , 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s ) w ill in c r e a s e s h a r p ly , ad d in g ab ou t 3 -1 /2 m illio n to the la b o r fo r c e . M en 45 y e a r s and o v e r w ill a c c o u n t fo r a n o th er 2 m illio n of the g ro w th . Y oung m en and young w o m en w ill add m o r e than 5 m illio n a s a r e s u lt o f co n tin u ed p o p u la tio n g ro w th in th e s e a g e s . A n a d d itio n a l 2 -1 /4 m illio n of th e in c r e a s e w ill c o m e fr o m w o m en o v e r 35 and ab ou t 1 -3 /4 m illio n fr o m w o m en 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s o f a g e . 4. The a d d itio n of th e s e la r g e n u m b e r s of young p e o p le and m a r r ie d w o m e n to the la b o r fo r c e w ill m ea n an u n u su a lly la r g e in c r e a s e in the n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s . A lm o s t 4 m illio n , or 35 p e r c e n t, of the to ta l la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 w ill be p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , alth o u g h th e y c o m p r is e o n ly 15 p e r c e n t o f the p r e s e n t la b o r fo r c e . B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975, the r is e in the n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s w ill be a lm o s t 3- 1 /2 m illio n , but th e y w ill r e p r e s e n t a s m a lle r p r o p o r tio n o f the to ta l in c r e a s e than in the p r e c e d in g d e c a d e . 3 P o p u la tio n G row th fr o m 1900 to 1955 A stu d y of p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s is a n e c e s s a r y sta r tin g p o in t fo r p r o je c tin g fu tu re m a n p o w er su p p ly , s in c e the n u m b er of w o r k e r s a v a ila b le at an y tim e d ep en d s m a in ly on the n u m b er of p e r s o n s of w o rk in g a g e in th e p o p u la tio n . B e c a u s e p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s e s ta b lis h the fr a m e w o r k fo r la b o r fo r c e tr e n d s , a b r ie f r e v ie w of the h is to r y of p o p u la tio n g ro w th in the U n ited S ta te s is p r e s e n te d . D e s c r ib e d a ls o a r e the c h a n g e s in the s iz e and c o m p o s itio n of the p o p u la tio n th at a r e lik e ly to a ffe c t the la b o r fo r c e in the y e a r s a h ea d . T he p o p u la tio n of the U n ited S ta te s in c r e a s e d fr o m 76 m illio n in 1900 to 165 m illio n in 1955 (ta b le l). It g r e w m o s t r a p id ly d u rin g the f ir s t d e c a d e of th is c e n tu r y w h en a r e c o r d n u m b er of a lm o s t 9 m illio n im m ig r a n ts e n te r e d the c o u n tr y , but co n tin u ed to exp an d r a p id ly b e tw e e n 1910 and 1930, e v e n though im m ig r a tio n w a s s u b s ta n tia lly c u r ta ile d . D u rin g the d e p r e s s io n of the 1930*s a sh a rp d rop in the b ir th r a te and the v ir tu a l e lim in a tio n o f im m ig r a tio n r e s u lte d in a r a te o f p o p u la tio n gro w th o n ly o n e -th ir d a s h ig h a s th at fr o m 1900 to 1910. T a b le 1. P o p u la tio n of the U n ited S ta te s , a c tu a l, 1 9 0 0 -5 8 and p r o je c te d , 1965 and 1975 P o p u la tio n (th o u sa n d s) T o ta l M ale F e m a le A v e r a g e an n u al p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in to ta l p o p u la tio n P e r io d P ercen t 7 6 , 094 9 2 ,4 0 7 1 0 6 ,4 6 6 1 2 3 ,0 7 7 1 3 2 ,1 2 2 1 5 1 ,6 8 3 165, 248 174, 064 3 8 ,8 6 9 4 7 ,5 5 4 5 4 ,2 9 5 6 2 ,2 9 7 6 6 , 352 7 5 , 530 8 2 ,0 0 1 8 6 ,2 0 7 3 7 ,2 2 6 4 4 ,8 5 2 52, 171 6 0 ,7 8 0 6 5 ,7 7 0 7 6 ,1 5 3 8 3 ,2 4 5 8 7 ,8 5 8 1 9 0 0 -1 0 1 9 1 0 -2 0 1 9 2 0 -3 0 1 9 3 0 -4 0 1 9 4 0 -5 0 1 9 5 0 -5 5 1 9 5 5 -5 8 2. 0 1 .4 1. 5 .7 1. 4 1. 7 1. 7 P r o je c te d 1965 ............................ 1 9 3 .6 4 3 1975 ............................ 2 2 5 , 552 9 5 , 562 111, 113 9 8 ,0 8 1 1 1 4 ,4 3 9 1 9 5 8 -6 5 1 9 6 5 -7 5 1. 5 1. 5 Y ea r A ctu a l 1900 ............................ 1 9 1 0 ............................ 1920 ............................ 1930 ............................ 1940 ............................ 1950 ............................ 1955 ............................ 1958 ............................ S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s. 4 W orld W ar II m a r k e d the en d o f the d ow n tren d in the ra te o f p o p u la tio n g ro w th . T h ere w a s a sh a rp in c r e a s e in the b ir th r a te d u rin g the e a r ly w a r y e a r s . M a r r ia g e s and b ir th s d e c lin e d d u rin g 1944 and 1945, w h en m illio n s of young m e n w e r e o v e r s e a s . W ar c a s u a ltie s a ls o slo w e d the ra te o f p o p u la tio n g ro w th . A fte r the w a r en d ed , the b ir th r a te r o s e sh a r p ly . The num k©r b a b ie s b o rn in 1947 r e a c h e d 3. 8 m illio n c o m p a r e d w ith a y e a r ly a v e r a g e o f 2 .4 m illio n d u rin g the p e r io d 1 9 3 5 -3 9 (ta b le 2). T he n u m b er o f b ir th s r e m a in e d h ig h (3. 6 m illio n ) but sta b le b e tw e e n 1948 and 1950 and th en b eg a n to clim b a g a in . M ore than 4 m illio n b a b ie s h a v e b e e n b o rn in e v e r y y e a r b e tw e e n 1954 and 1957. T a b le 2. B ir th s and b ir th r a te s in the U n ited S ta te s , 1 9 1 5 -5 7 1 9 1 5 ............................... 1920 ............................... 1925 ............................... 1930 ............................... 1935 ............................... 2 ,9 6 5 2 ,9 5 0 2 ,9 0 9 2, 618 2, 377 R ate (p er 1,000 p o p u la tio n ) 2 9. 5 2 7. 7 25. 1 21. 3 18. 7 1940 ............................... 1 9 4 1 ............................... 1942 .............................. 1943 ............................... 1944 ............................... 2, 559 2 ,7 0 3 2 ,9 8 9 3, 104 2 ,9 3 9 1 9 .4 20. 3 22. 2 22. 7 2 1 .2 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... 2, 858 3 ,4 1 1 3, 817 3 ,6 3 7 3 ,6 4 9 20. 4 2 4. 1 2 6. 6 2 4. 9 2 4. 5 1950 ............................... 1 9 5 1 ............................... 1952 ............................... 1953 ............................... 1954 ............................... 3, 632 3, 823 3 ,9 1 3 3 ,9 6 5 4 , 078 24. 2 4. 25. 2 5. 25. Y ea r N u m b er (th o u sa n d s) 1 9 1 0 3 1955 ............................... 4 , 104 2 5. 0 2 5. 2 4 , 220 19561............................... 4 , 301 2 5. 3 19572............................... 1 P r o v is io n a l. 2 E s tim a te d . S o u r c e : U. S. D e p a r tm e n t o f H e a lth , E d u ca tio n , and W e lfa r e , N a tio n a l O ffice o f V ita l S t a t is t ic s . 5 C h a n g es in the d eath r a te h a v e a ls o a ffe c te d the g ro w th and age c o m p o s itio n o f our p o p u la tio n . T he o v e r a ll d eath r a te in the U n ited S ta te s h a s d e c lin e d c o n s is te n tly s in c e the tu rn of the c e n tu r y . T he b e s t w ay to s u m m a r iz e th is im p r o v e m e n t is th rou gh the m e a s u r e c a lle d a v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e or the a v e r a g e le n g th of lif e . The a v e r a g e len g th o f life fo r w h ite m a le s in the U n ited S ta te s in c r e a s e d fr o m 48. 2 y e a r s in 1900 to 67. 3 y e a r s in 1955. It is im p o r ta n t to n ote th at g a in s in life e x p e c ta n c y h a v e not b e e n u n ifo r m fo r a ll a g e s . G r e a te s t d e c r e a s e s in d eath r a te s h a v e o c c u r r e d at the y o u n g er a g e s . T he a v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e at b irth fo r a w h ite m a le in c r e a s e d b y 19. 1 y e a r s b e tw e e n 1900 and 1955, w h ile at age 60 the in c r e a s e w a s o n ly 1. 6 y e a r s (ta b le 3). The d r a m a tic d e c lin e in the d eath r a te s fo r in fa n ts r e s u lte d frq m d e c lin e s in d ea th s w h ich w e r e due to d ia r r h e a and e n t e r i t i s , p n eu m o n ia and in flu e n z a , p r e m a tu r e b ir th and o th er c a u s e s . M o st of th is im p r o v e m e n t is a ttr ib u ta b le to b e tte r sa n ita tio n , im p r o v e d m ilk su p p ly , and o th er fa c to r s a s s o c ia te d w ith our im p r o v e d sta n d a rd of liv in g . T he ra p id r is e in the p r o p o r tio n of b a b ie s b o rn in h o sp ita ls* h a s a ls o 'h e lp e d to lo w e r in fan t d eath r a te s. In a d d itio n to the d r a m a tic r e d u c tio n in in fan t m o r ta lity , r e m a r k a b le s u c c e s s h a s a ls o b e e n a c h ie v e d in the r e d u c tio n o f d eath r a te s fo r c h ild r e n . F o r e x a m p le , u n d er 1900 m o r ta lity c o n d itio n s, ab ou t 90 p e r c e n t o f a ll 1 - y e a r -o ld w h ite m a le s co u ld b e e x p e c te d to liv e to th e ir 15th b ir th d a y , w h e r e a s u n d er 1955 c o n d itio n s , 99 p e r c e n t co u ld be e x p e c te d to liv e to age 15. T he r e d u c tio n in d ea th s in th is age grou p h a s r e s u lte d m a in ly fr o m lo w e r d ea th r a te s fo r the c o m m u n ic a b le d is e a s e s of c h ild h o o d -- m e a s le s , s c a r le t f e v e r , w h oop in g co u g h , and d ip h th er ia . D ea th r a te s o f a d u lts h a v e a ls o d e c r e a s e d sin c e 1900, but n ot n e a r ly a s m a r k e d ly a s th o se of in fa n ts and c h ild r e n . H ig h er sta n d a rd s o f liv in g , m o r m e d ic a l f a c ilit ie s , and im p r o v e d sa n ita tio n m e th o d s h a v e a ll c o n tr ib u ted to th is d e c lin e . D e a th s c a u se d b y p n eu m o n ia and in flu e n z a d e c lin e d fr o m 184 p e r 100, 000 p o p u la tio n in 1900- 1904 to 28 p e r 100, 000 in 1955. S im ila r ly , the tu b e r c u lo s is ra te d e c lin e d fr o m 185 p e r 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 to l e s s than 10 p e r 100, 000 o v e r the sa m e tim e p e r io d . In the ad u lt a g e s , h o w e v e r , c e r ta in r is in g d ea th r a te s h a v e p a r tia lly o ffs e t the ab ove d e c lin e s . D e a th s fr o m d is e a s e s o f the h e a r t, fo r e x a m p le , in c r e a s e d fr o m 148 to 352 p e r 100, 000 d u rin g th is p e r io d . T h is in c r e a s e is due in p a r t to the d rop in the d ea th r a te s fo r o th er d is e a s e s , w h ich h a s en a b led m o r e p e o p le to su r v iv e to the a g e s a t w h ich h e a r t d is e a s e s tak e th e ir g r e a te s t to ll. F o r w h ite m a le s , the p r o p o r tio n w ho su r v iv e fr o m th e ir 15th to th e ir 50th b irth d a y r o s e fr o m 73 p e r c e n t ill 1900 to 90 p e r c e n t in 1955, w h e r e a s the p r o p o r tio n su r v iv in g fr o m th e ir 50th to th e ir 75th b ir th d a y in c r e a s e d o n ly fr o m 37 p e r c e n t to 46 p e r c e n t. 6 T a b le 3. A v e r a g e r e m a in in g life tim e in y e a r s at s e le c t e d a g e s , b y c o lo r and s e x , 1900, 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 50, and 1955 A ge and y e a r A t b irth : 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ............................................... 1 9 3 9 - 4 1 ..................................................... 1 9 4 9 -5 1 ..................................................... 1 9 5 5 ............................................................ A t a g e 10: 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ............................................... 1 9 3 9 - 4 1 ..................................................... 1 9 4 9 -5 1 ..................................................... 1 9 5 5 ............................................................. A t a g e 20: 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................ 1 9 3 9 -4 1 ..................................................... 1 9 4 9 -5 1 ..................................................... 1 9 5 5 ............................................................. A t a g e 4 0: 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................ 1 9 3 9 -4 1 ..................................................... 1 9 4 9 -5 1 ..................................................... 1 9 5 5 ............................................................. A t a g e 60: 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................ 1 9 3 9 - 4 1 ..................................................... 1 9 4 9 - 5 1 ..................................................... 1 9 5 5 .. 1 ..................................................... A t a g e 70: 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 ................................................ 1 9 3 9 -4 1 ..................................................... 1 9 4 9 -5 1 ..................................................... 1 9 5 5 ............................................................. W hite M ale N on w h ite F e m a le M a le F e m a le 2 8 3 3 51. 1 6 7 .3 72. 0 73. 6 32. 5 2. 58. 61. 5 3 9 2 35. 0 55. 5 6 2 .7 6 5 .9 50. 6 5 7. 0 5 9 .0 59. 6 52. 2 60. 8 6 4 .3 65. 6 4 1 .9 48. 5 53. 0 54. 9 43. 0 50. 8 56. 2 5 9 .2 42. 2 47. 8 4 9 .5 50. 1 43. 8 5 1 .4 5 4 .6 55. 8 3 5. 3 9. 43. 45. 1 7 7 5 3 6 .9 42. 1 46. 8 49. 6 27. 7 30. 0 31. 2 3 1. 7 2 9 .2 3 3. 2 3 5. 6 36. 7 23. 25. 2 7. 28. 1 2 3 6 2 4 .4 27. 3 2 9. 8 3 2. 0 1 4 .4 15. 0 15. 8 16. 0 15. 17. 18. 19. 2 0 6 3 12. 6 1 4 .4 1 4 .9 1 5 .4 13. 6 16. 1 17. 0 18. 1 9. 0 9 .4 10. 1 10. 3 9. 6 10. 5 11. 7 12. 2 8 .3 10. 1 1 0 .7 1 1 .7 9. 11. 12. 13. 48. 6 2. 6 6. 6 7. 6 8 3 8 N o te: D ata fo r 1 9 0 0 -1 9 0 2 a r e fo r the 11 d e a th -r e g is tr a tio n S ta te s of 1900. S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of H e a lth , E d u ca tio n , and W e lfa r e , N a tio n a l O ffice o f V ita l S t a t is t ic s , A b r id g e d L ife T a b le s: U n ited S ta te s , 1955. 7 C h a n g e s in A ge C o m p o sitio n of the P o p u la tio n P ro fo u n d c h a n g e s in the a g e s tr u c tu r e o f the p o p u la tio n h a v e a c c o m p a n ie d its ra p id g ro w th . B e tw e e n 1900 and 1930, the p o p u la tio n b e tw e e n the a g e s of 10 and 45 in c r e a s e d fr o m 44 m illio n to 71 m illio n a s m a n y young im m ig r a n ts e n te r e d the co u n tr y (ta b le 4 ). D e s p ite a d e c lin in g b ir th r a te d u rin g th is p e r io d , the n u m b er of young p e o p le u n d er 10 y e a r s o f a g e co n tin u ed to in c r e a s e , a lth ou gh l e s s r a p id ly than the o ld e r g r o u p s - - f r o m 18 to 24 m illio n . T he la r g e s t r e la tiv e in c r e a s e s in the p o p u la tio n o c c u r r e d a t the o ld e s t a g e s . T he n u m b er of p e r s o n s o v e r 65 y e a r s of a g e m o r e than d ou b led b e tw e e n 1900 and 1930, r is in g fr o m 3. 1 m illio n to 6 .7 m illio n . S o m e o f th is in c r e a s e r e s u lte d fr o m im p r o v e m e n ts in liv in g sta n d a r d s and a d v a n c e s in m e d ic a l s c ie n c e . In a d d itio n , the n u m b er of p e r s o n s 65 y e a r s o f a g e and o v e r in 1930 in c lu d e d la r g e n u m b e r s o f im m ig r a n ts w ho h ad e n te r e d the co u n tr y at y o u n g er a g e s d u rin g the la te 19th and e a r ly 20th c e n tu r ie s . B e tw e e n 1930 and 1940, the n u m b er of c h ild r e n u n d er 10 a c tu a lly d e c lin e d a s th e d e p r e s s io n c a u s e d m a n y m a r r ie d c o u p le s to p o stp o n e h a v in g c h ild r e n and d is c o u r a g e d young p e r s o n s fr o m g e ttin g m a r r ie d . A lth ou gh p o p u la tio n grow th in the c e n tr a l and o ld e r a g e s w a s r e la t iv e ly s m a lle r than in the e a r lie r d e c a d e s b e c a u s e im m ig r a tio n h ad a lm o s t sto p p ed , th e d e c r e a s e in the d eath r a te s and o th er fa c to r s b ro u g h t ab ou t su b sta n tia l in c r e a s e s in th e s e g r o u p s. M ore than 5,1 m illio n b a b ie s w e r e b o rn b e tw e e n 1940 and 1955. T h is p lu s the r e d u c tio n in m o r ta lity r a te s and so m e in c r e a s e in the n u m b er o f im m ig r a n ts c a u se d the to ta l p o p u la tio n to jum p fr o m 132 m illio n to 165 m illio n . A s a r e s u lt, the u n d er 10 a g e grou p in c r e a s e d m o r e r a p id ly than an y o th e r - - f r o m 21 m illio n in 1940 to 35 m illio n in 1955. S om e E ffe c ts of P o p u la tio n C h a n g es The ra p id g ro w th and the ch a n g in g c o m p o sitio n o f our p o p u la tio n h a v e a ffe c te d ou r e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l str u c tu r e in m a n y w a y s. A m a s s d em an d fo r g o o d s and s e r v ic e s h a s b e e n c r e a te d , w h ich in tu rn h a s stim u la te d s p e c ia liz a tio n and the d e v e lo p m e n t o f te c h n iq u e s o f m a s s p ro d u ctio n and d istr ib u tio n . T h e se c h a n g e s h a v e a ffe c te d e v e r y a s p e c t o f ou r e c o n o m ic and s o c ia l s tr u c tu r e . M o st p e o p le now liv e in c it ie s in ste a d of r u r a l a r e a s ; m u ch o f the m a n u a l la b o r is b e in g r e p la c e d b y m a c h in e s and the n eed fo r tr a in e d m a n p o w er h a s in c r e a s e d e n o r m o u s ly . T he fa c t th at our p o p u la tio n h a s in c r e a s e d c o n tin u o u sly u n d o u b ted ly stim u la te d e c o n o m ic g ro w th and e n h a n c e d our fa ith in the fu tu r e . T he la r g e n u m b er o f im m ig r a n ts w ho e n te r e d the c o u n tr y e a r ly in th is c e n tu r y --m a n y of w h om w e r e young m e n in the p r im e of lif e - - a id e d the co u n tr y in o v e r c o m in g its la b o r sh o r ta g e and e n a b led it to d e v e lo p an in d u s tr ia l str u c tu r e m u ch m o r e r a p id ly than w o u ld o th e r w ise h a v e b e e n p o s s ib le . 8 T a b l e 4 . A g e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s 1 9 0 0 - 7 5 A c t u a l P r o j e c t e d A g e 1 9 0 0 1 9 3 0 1 9 5 0 1 9 4 0 N u m b e A l l a g e s ............................ U n d e r 1 0 - 1 4 1 0 y e a r s • r 1 9 6 5 1 9 5 5 1 9 7 5 ( t h o u s a n d s ) 7 6 , 0 9 4 1 2 3 , 0 7 7 1 3 2 , 1 2 2 1 5 1 , 6 8 3 1 6 5 , 2 4 8 1 9 3 , 6 4 3 1 8 , 0 6 1 2 3 , 9 6 2 2 1 , 2 2 7 2 9 , 6 1 9 3 5 , 4 5 5 3 9 , 9 7 6 4 5 , 1 2 , 0 4 1 1 1 , 7 1 5 1 1 , 1 4 4 1 3 , 3 4 0 1 9 , 2 1 6 2 0 , 4 0 2 2 0 , 5 8 7 y e a r s . . . . 8 , 0 8 6 2 2 5 , 5 5 2 5 3 8 1 5 - 1 9 y e a r s . . . . 7 , 5 6 5 1 1 , 5 7 2 1 2 , 3 4 3 1 0 , 6 8 0 1 1 , 1 8 6 1 7 , 2 6 7 2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s . . . . 7 , 3 8 3 1 0 , 9 1 5 1 1 , 6 9 0 1 1 , 6 2 0 1 0 , 7 6 6 1 3 , 5 0 2 1 9 , 3 3 1 2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s . . . . 1 2 , 1 6 2 1 9 , 0 3 9 2 1 , 4 4 6 2 3 , 9 2 6 2 4 , 1 3 6 2 2 , 5 2 7 3 1 , 2 1 3 3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s . . . . 9 , 2 7 1 1 7 , 2 7 0 1 8 , 4 2 2 2 1 , 5 6 9 2 2 , 8 0 9 2 4 , 2 8 8 2 2 , 7 2 7 4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s . . . . 6 , 4 3 9 1 3 , 0 9 6 1 5 , 5 5 5 1 7 , 4 1 3 1 8 , 9 0 0 2 2 , 1 3 0 2 3 , 6 4 8 5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s . . . . 4 , 6 5 0 2 7 8 , 4 7 7 1 0 , 6 9 4 1 3 , 4 2 4 1 4 , 5 2 9 1 7 , 0 9 9 2 0 , 2 3 4 3 , 0 9 9 6 , 7 0 5 9 , 0 3 1 1 2 , 2 8 7 1 4 , 1 2 7 1 7 , 6 3 8 2 1 , 8 7 2 y e a r s a n d o v e r ........................ P e r c e n t A l l a g e s ............................. U n d e r 1 0 y e a r s . 1 0 - 1 4 y e a r s . . . . 1 5 - 1 9 y e a r s . . . . 2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s . . . . d i s t r i b u t i o n 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 2 3 . 7 1 9 . 5 1 6 . 1 1 0 . 6 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 2 0 . 6 2 0 . 2 1 9 . 5 2 1 . 5 9 . 8 8 . 9 7 . 3 8 . 1 9 . 9 9 . 4 9 . 3 7 . 0 6 . 9 . 7 8 . 8 . 8 7 . 7 6 . 9 9 . 9 9 . 0 8 8 . 9 9 . 1 5 7 . 0 8 . 6 8 2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s . . . . 1 6 . 0 1 5 . 5 1 6 . 2 1 5 . 8 1 4 . 6 1 1 . 6 1 3 . 3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s . . . . 1 2 . 2 1 4 . 0 1 3 . 9 1 4 . 2 1 3 . 8 1 2 . 5 1 0 . 1 4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s . . . . 8 . 5 1 0 . 6 1 1 . 8 1 1 . 5 1 1 . 4 1 1 . 4 1 0 . 5 5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s . . . . 5 . 3 6 . 9 8 . 1 8 . 9 8 . 8 8 . 8 9 . 0 4 . 1 5 . 4 6 . 8 8 . 1 8 . 5 9 . 1 9 . 7 6 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ........................ N o t e : e q u a l B e c a u s e o f r o u n d i n g , s u m s o f i n d i v i d u a l i t e m s d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t o t a l s . S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f t h e C e n s u s . 9 T h e r e f o r c e in T h i s m w h i c h h a s a y T h e j o b M e r l y , T h e a v e r a g e y e a r s a n d h e f r o m 3 2 l i f e o f y i e l d s h a d w h o m i n c o m m a r e e in in g o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s e d u c a t i o n w o r k i s e f f e c t s a r e t e a c h e r s t h e f o r l a r g e t o F o r t h i s T h e C h i e f , A F o u r t h o f o f p e o p l e t o a n d t h e e c o n o m l a r g e t h e i r o n w o r k a g e . v e r y f a m c h i l d r e n t h e i r o w n a n y m t h e i c i l i e s o f a s s a v i n g s o r o l d e r f o r L a b o r a t i n c r e a s e i n t h e a n d t h e e p r o b l e m a n d a r e a d a p t f o r w h o l e a p a r t m b e i n g j o b s t h e t o p e r s o n s t o o f in t o m a n y p r o v i d e o f t h e f i e l d - - d e s i g n e d o f e n t . u s e f u l o f b e c a u s e c a p a c i t i e s c o n t i n u e l e n g t h I n d u s t r y r e t i r e m s t u d y 2 i n c r e a s e d n e e d e d i c a l e n t s c a n in p e r s o n s , A l s o , m b u i l t . t h e y e a r s . n e w p l e x p e r s o n h a d r a p i d l y a o f S t a t i s t i c s i n c r e a s e d a j o r 5 0 p e r i o d c o m b i r t h o l d e r m t h e c o u l d i n v e s t m e n t o f a h e t r a i n e d t h e e n y e a r s l o n g e r t h e o f m T h e T h e H o u s e s t o t h e p a s t , f o r t h a n p e o p l e B u r e a u 1 9 5 5 . p e r s o n s e f f o r t s f o r 7 0 B e c a u s e y e a r s s i n c e t h e t o l i f e . y o u n g o r e , p e r s o n s , p e n s i o n s o r e n e e d in y e a r s o f n u m b e r b e c o m o l d e r 4 7 w a y p r e p a r e in h a s o l d e r f r o m r e c e n t 4 m i l l i o n b a b i e s u n p r e c e d e n t e d m e d i c a l e s , b e i n g t o o f c a r e . a c u t e l y a r e f e l t i n in t h e m s i z e a n y it L e n g t h o f i s o f M I n t e r n a t i o n a l W M b o r n a n d d i r e c t c o m o r k i n g a n p o w e r in o f a E m G e r o n t o l o g i c a l a p e r y e a r s p l o y m 4 t o m e e t a r id o l d e r A d u l t a n d p o s t - W s a t i s f y i n g f a m o f W II h a s b o o s t e d s . T h e e n t a r y f o r c o l l e g e a r f o o d s , i l y e l e m d e m a n d r e a c h o r l d b a b y b e d r o o m w h e r e T h e s c h o o l h i g h e r f a c i l i t i e s c o l l e g e a s a g e . T r e n d s o u r f u t u r e e f f e c t s r e a s o n a b l e p a p e r t h e o r s h o r t a g e s r e c e n t i n d i r e c t t h a t 3 s c h o o l s s u p p l y . p o s i t i o n i n p r o c e s s e d c h i l d r e n P o p u l a t i o n L i f e , a n d t h e y e a r f o r w i t h f u r t h e r i n a n d i m p o r t a n t o r e t h o s e t i g h t c r e a t e b a b i e s e a c h d e m a n d s p a r t i c u l a r l y c o n t i n u e r e a s o n , y o u n g s o c i a l t h e w i t h o u r e x p e c t a n c y d e v e l o p e d . s h a v e D i v i s i o n m t h a n y e a r s h a s o f c l a s s r o o m w i l l t o t o w o r k w o r k , h e l p a n d n u m b e r C h a n g e s l i f e F u r t h e r m F u t u r e e x p e c t e d o f a c ,c e p t l i f e 4 2 e n t a b o u t h o m a l s o a n d e d u c a t i o n o f t o y s , d e m a n d o u r d e p e n d e n t r e p e r c u s s i o n s . m a k i n g c r e a t e d c h i l d r e n s t h e f o r t h e d e p r e s s i o n . c o n t r i b u t e d y e a r s l i v i n g t h e u n d e r t a k e n . b i r t h h a s 3 5 h o u s e o r e l i v e t o o f w o r k p r o v i d e w i l l t o j o b s . t o f o r t s w h i c h b e i n g T h e p e r i o d t o t o e n t e r i n g d u r i n g h a v e a f f e c t e d a f f e c t e d n e c e s s a r y o t h e r b e e n a r e a n d a l s o e x p e c t n u m b e r c o m m p e r s o n s s i t u a t i o n a l s o o v e r p a r e n t s a r e b e n e f i t s . r e t i r e m p h y s i c a l b u i l t y e a r s a b l e t h e a l s o n o t j o b a y e n h a s w i l l i n g 1 9 0 0 n o t g e r i a t r i c s - - h a s t h e o r e a n y a f t e r i n c r e a s e o r e a v e r a g e y e a r s h a s c a n h i g h e r t h e w o m e x p e c t a t i o n t e c h n i c a l m m a r e h a s e d u c a t i o n a n d t h a t m a n d e l d e r l y t h e n o w i s f a v o r a b l e f o r t h e y y o u n g b i r t h r a t e s l i v e l i h o o d . in a n d c o n t r i b u t e s h o w s t h e o f l o w s i z e r e s u l t , a t h e y e a r s e s a r e 1 9 5 5 a n d t r a i n i n g a f o r i l y h o m i n c r e a s e i n d u s t r i a l n o w a s p e r s o n t r a i n i n g f a m 1 9 0 0 a g o , t o r e c e n t N e i t h e r r i g h t s b e t w e e n in o d e r n y e s t e r y e a r . p e n s i o n i n s h o r t a g e o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s d e c l i n e s t r u c t u r e . r e l a t i v e b e c a u s e c o n t r i b u t e d e x i s t e d i n a y e a r s h a v e h a s i n c r e a s e f o r m b e e n r e c e n t o n e s t i m p r e s e n t e d e n t C o n g r e s s , p o p u l a t i o n o u r f u t u r e a t e b y M e r a n o , J u l y a l s o b e f o r c e . f u t u r e S e y m o u r S t a t i s t i c s , a t o f c a n w o r k L . 1 9 5 7 , I t a l y . W o l f b e i n , a t t h e 10 p o p u l a t i o n b e P o p u l a t i o n m a d e o f b i r t h r a t e s , i m m i g r a t i o n a r e n o a l s o d e a t h w i l l p r e d i c t a b l e p o p u l a t i o n r a t e s it i s o f m a k e t h e b e h o w a n t o c o u n t r y . i n a n y p o p u l a t i o n t h e s a m e m a t o f b y a r e s p e c i f i c I m a l l o w a n c e o f n o i s a l s o a r e m t h e in t o o f P a s t s t e a d i l y h a s t o w a r d o f m p o p u l a t i o n n u m f o r g r o w t h o f a g e a s a s p e c t in o f a n a l y s e s N e t b e r e a c h g r a d u a l l y i f t h e r e d e a t h s g r o u p t h e i s i n t h e p a s t . P r o f o r e c a s t i n g c a n a n d in b e b e r i m t h e n u m a r e t w o s t e p s . a l i v e o f a t e a t e d a t m i g r a n t s n u m b e r b e r s t h e n o f T h e f u t u r e w h o o f f i r s t p e r i o d s w i l l b a b i e s b a b i e s " s u r v i v e d " a r e t o i s t o e n t e r t h a t w i l l a d d e d o l d e r t o a n d t o a g e s in A l i v e p e r s o n s i s a g e g r o u p s b a s e d t h e i g r a t i o n o u r i m o f m a n d a t h e o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f s u r v i v a l t h e f o r a f o r g i v e h r e c e n t a l i v e i m T h e m o f a y e a r s . in d e a t h y e a r s . i n c l u d e a n d a n a g e - s e x i g r a n t s , o f b e e n d e c l i n e e x p e r i e n c e l a w s . r a t e s , p e r i o d h a v e f u t u r e n o w o l d e r a c t u a l p r o p o r t i o n w h i c h c o n t i n u i n g r a t e s n u m b e r i g r a t i o n t o a p p l y i n g r a t e s , r e c e n t s u r v i v e t h e s u r v i v e f o r w i l l a r r a y i n g i n d i c a t e d e a t h s u r v i v a l b a s e d w h o b y a n d t o o n a l l o w a n c e i n l i v i n g d o n e r a t e s , e x p e c t e d a r e a n n o w I t d e a t h b e in m a d e e s t i m P r o j e c t i o n s m P o p u l a t i o n w i l l n u m a t t e r . o f r a t e s t h e t o d e t a i l e d y e a r s , i m a t e d e s t i m N o w e n t c h a n g e t r e n d s T h e w o m T r e n d s u s u a l i n i n 1 9 0 0 f a m i l y t h e t h e t o e n d d e c r e a s i n g a l w a y s d e a t h m a k i n g m b e e n f o r f o r d e t a i l e d B i r t h r a t e . i t s a n d p r o p o r t i o n l i m i t a t i o n . i t o f t h a n t r e n d s o f m a n a s s u m p t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n o s t a g e b i r t h r a t e s l e v e l s e s t i m o f a t e s g r o u p i n g s o f w h o m o f h a v e b e e n b i r t h r a t e s o f t h e w o m n u m e n t o a b e r t h e a g e s . B i r t h r a t e s in t h a t g r o w t h . w o m in in f u t u r e a p p e a r e d p o p u l a t i o n l a r g e r t h e p r e p a r i n g c h i l d b e a r i n g 1 9 3 5 , o f r a t e s , p r e d i c t i o n e t h o d b i r t h r a t e s e n t h e in p a s t , a p p l y a p p r o a c h i n g s i z e i g r a t i o n . p o p u l a t i o n . i n c o r p o r a t e d t h e f r o m t h e m l a b o r ^ f o r c e . h i s t o r i c a l B i r t h s t a s k . b e r o f T h e d i f f i c u l t b o r n a g e s o l d e r b y t h a t a n y o n o f U n l i k e i s a n d f u t u r e a d u l t s . i r r e g u l a r f r o m p l e m n e t b a s e d y o u n g b i r t h s in r a t e s P r o j e c t i n g i s T h e b e r i g r a t i o n . f o r P r o j e c t i o n s n u m a n d m s t e p s i m p l e c o m s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f i c u l t n u m s e x u s u a l l y N e t t h e s u r v i v a l f o r i s i m l a w s . g e n e r a l l y e s t i m N u m b e r g r o u p t h e d e c l i n i n g n e t d e a t h m o s t t h e b a s i s f a c t o r s l o w l y o f y o u n g e s t a s t h e t h e a g e B e c a u s e r a t e s t h e r e l a t i v e l y p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h i n o r t h a t t h e a r e t h e s e c o n d t h e P r o j e c t i n g a m i g r a t i o n a t e t h e o f a e d i s o n m a l r e a d y p e r i o d s . a n n e r P r o j e c t i o n s i s i m e t h o d p e o p l e f o r T h e f u t u r e t h e a g e s b e e s t i m a m o u n t c h a n g e p r o j e c t i o n s m a l l o w a n c e b o r n t h e i n t o m a d e g r o w t h . P o p u l a t i o n a t e t o b i r t h s M e s t i m a n d a s s u m c o n t i n u e n u m b e r p o p u l a t i o n u s u a l l y c h a n g e s i f w i l l t h e a t t e m p t i n g a r e c o n t i n u e s i g n i f i c a n t j e c t i n g b e f o r e p r o j e c t i o n s e n D i f f e r e n c e s in T h i s l i v i n g c i t i e s , a n d f a m t h i s t h e i l y c o u n t r y U n i t e d d e c l i n e o n f a r m f r o m a s i z e s , d e c l i n e d S t a t e s w a s r e s u l t e d w h e r e l o n g - t e r m b e t w e e n b o t h f a m i l y t r e n d r u r a l f a r m o f 11 a n d u r b a n w o m e n c h i l d r e n r u r a l 3 . 9 c o m 4 5 1 9 0 0 h a l f y e a r s i n f o r d e c l i n e e n d i n o f T h e f a m a r I I . i l y l e v e l i c (1 ) M a r r i a g e o f a l l i n c r e a s e d (2 ) 2 0 - 2 4 t o N e w l y y e a r s b a b i e s . r e c e n t I f m o f a g e s t o o , h i g h l e v e l s . t h a n w a s a g e g i v e n g r o u p . p a t t e r n s b a b i e s I f o f b y 1 9 4 0 W o m 4 U . 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P o p u l a t i o n 5 F o r 6 U . o m h a s o f e n t h e u r b a n o v e r w h o 3 . e n C e n s u s b y N u m a e n m t h e f a c t o r i s , t w o u c h a t a f t e r o t h e r s l i g h t l y a c c e n t u a t e d a s t h e w e r e t h e s h a r p e s t n e a r i n g t h e m a b o u t w a r o f m t h e a n d b e g i n n i n g h a s c o u r s e , a j o r o f c o n t i n u e d t h e f a c t o r s h i g h w h i c h a r e : e a r l i e r w e r e h a v e h a d a l r e a d y f a m a g e . a r r i e d ; i l y f a m f o r m I n b y 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 5 7 , i l y a b o u t t h i s 5 3 f i g u r e 8 o m b y e n t h e h a v e i n i l l i o n i s 1 a n d t h e t i m e h a d t h e y o n l y t o o m e n i l l i o n e f f e c t t h e 5 t h a g e a c c o r d i n g W m b a b i e s k e e p i n g 4 t h , h a d 5 . b e e n m i n e a r l i e r . a b o u t h a d 2 . 3 d , W c h i l d r e n w o u l d t o a t i o n 2 d , b a b i e s b o r n e t h e y o n l y f o r m p a s t . c h i l d r e n b i r t h a t i o n h a d h a v i n g i l l i o n h a d t h e i r g i v e n h a v e i n a r e 1 r e v e r s e d b i r t h r a t e s m r e c e n t a t i o n , a T h e P o p u l a t i o n S . P o p u l a t i o n o f o f E v e r e r c e , N o . in b y 1 9 5 7 . b i r t h r a t e s b a b i e s g r o u p 3 0 - 3 4 r e a c h e d i n t h i s p r e - 1 9 4 0 a b o u t 1 0 . 4 m i l l i o n N o . C o m a n d 1 1 7 , m B u r e a u b e t w e e n t h e o f t a b l e t h e F e r t i l i t y 1 9 4 0 a n d 1 0 . C e n s u s , N o s . l e v e l s o f C o n s e q u e n c e s U n i t e d e r c e , P - 2 0 ; D i f f e r e n t i a l B o r n , C u r r e n t 8 4 . r e l a t i o n i n a n t s S t u d i e s S e r i e s m P - 2 0 , t h e o f P o p u l a t i o n , C h i l d r e n C o m D e t e r m D e p a r t m e n t R e p o r t s , o f S e r i e s d i s c u s s i o n s e e R e p o r t s , b e r D e p a r t m e n t 8 s i n c e b r i n g i n g 6 - - o n l y a r e a s 3 5 e n w i t h i n c r e a s e 1 9 3 0 's e n - - w o m p a r e d i n o f o m in u r b a n c o m 2 . w d i f f e r e n c e a t i c t o f a r m 1 9 5 7 r e s u l t e d d o w n i n a v e r a g e 6 o f e n 1 4 . w a s e n w o u l d t h e w o m f o r m R e p o r t s , b i r t h r a t e , T r e n d s , i l y d r a m a n r u r a l I n 3 l i v i n g 1 9 5 7 . 3 1 9 1 0 , t h e s e f a m a t h a d e n i n t o e n s h a r p l y w o m p a t t e r n s b i r t h a n d o n l y e n h a d c h i l d r e n a n d w o m h i g h c o u p l e s w o m W o n g a d d i t i o n , p e r c e n t . 1 9 5 7 t r u e 3 t h e f a r m i m p o r t a n t I n a c c e l e r a t i o n v e r y h a d 7 0 i n e a r l i e r 1 9 5 7 O n e 5 u n u s u a lly a r r i e d t h e s e a m o c c u r r i n g o s t 2 . c i t i e s w o m b o t h e n u r b a n - r u r a l d e p r e s s i o n r o s e y e a r - o l d p r e - 1 9 4 0 y e a r s , o l d e r i s a g e i n w o m w h i t e o f w o m d e c l i n e d . o n l y i n f o r u r b a n T h e a l l b i r t h r a t e t h e n . 2 0 - 2 4 a l m t h e t h e f o r n a t i v e a v e r a g e y e a r s . b i r t h r a t e t o w h i t e h a v e o f w h e n a n c h i l d r e n t h a t l i v i n g T h e i t a t i o n 1 H o w e v e r , f o r e n . a c t i v i t y . c o n t r i b u t e d 4 1 9 1 0 3 h a d n a t i v e b o t h e n o c c u r r e d s i n c e 5 . c i t i e s . e n . w o m w o m o f a l l i n c h i l d r e n l i m T h e e c o n o m p e r c e n t o f o f a v e r a g e w o m o f e , a s c i t i e s b e t w e e n a n c h i l d b e a r i n g o f h a v e b e r t i m a l t h o u g h f a r m e a r l y i n a v e r a g e l i v e d h a d u r b a n h i g h l e v e l a g e a s l i v i n g i d w a y t h e m d o w n t r e n d W m b i r t h r a t e s t h e i r o r l d a n u m t o w a r d a n e x i s t s , o f f o r a g e t h a t p r o p o r t i o n t h a n t r e n d A t A t r u r a l t h e r e c o r d e d o f w i t h o f s t i l l a v e r a g e l a r g e r a t p a r e d s i z e c h i l d r e n a t w e r e y e a r s a r e a s . a b o u t o v e r W e n 4 9 c h i l d r e n - - a b o u t i l y t h e t o f a r m s i n c e f a m w o m 4 5 N a t i o n s , B u r e a u 5 0 a n d o f t h e 8 1 . p p . p r o s p e r i t y o f a n d P o p u l a t i o n 8 3 a n d C e n s u s , 8 4 . C u r r e n t t h e 12 E x p e c t e d f a c t o r s t o j u s t o p e r a t e f o r c o n d i t i o n s . b e g a n i n f a m i l y o f 2 . 2 T h e t h e o f w o m t h e m i n h a v e 3 0 - 3 4 f e r t i l e a n y t h e f o r S o m e a r e a n t h e o f t h e i r h a s u n d e r 3 0 d e c r e a s e p e r i o d , t h e w o m a n e n d o f a n . I f a l m T h e f o r m b y c h i l d r e n T h e " C o h o r t T h i s t o L a b o r 5 y e a r s 1 9 5 4 w i t h a t t h e o f F c h i l d r e n w i l l o f A t h i s b o r n f o r d e t a i l e d e s t i m d i s c u s s i o n a s i z e t h e o m 3 . a n d e n t h i r d a l s o a p p e a r s i n d e f i n i t e e n w o u l d 5 c h i l d r e n t h a n e n f i r s t r i s e , a n W a n d h a s r e a c h p e r b e e n p r o j e c t i n g t h e m o f o f t h e f r o m e t h o d b i r t h s w h i c h a c c e l e r a t e d n u m b e r a d a p t e d o f a w o m t o o v e r p r o j e c t i o n i l y o f w a s w o m 2 5 , 1 8 6 5 . a t e p u r p o s e s b i r t h s o r e o f n o w f o r i l y a l r e a d y w i l l w h a t o c c u r : f a m f a m a g e l e v e l s p l e t e d p r e p a r e d t o o f y e a r s . b i r t h h a v i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e m c o n t i n u e s a n y t h e a g e 2 5 m w i l l r e c e n t b y r e a c h b e y o n d s i n c e i n e v i d e n t o v e r s o t h e y B e c a u s e a v e r a g e c o m e n a t w o m f e m P . w i l l f a m e n a l e K . W b e i l y w i t h l a b o r h e l p t o n 's f o u n d o n b u l l e t i n . 1 9 7 5 , o r '2 5 - 2 9 u s e d a g e t h i r d , 1 e n o f a r e e n i l i e s a h e a d b e c a u s e T h u s , y e a r s w o u l d f a m t h a t 4 5 - 4 9 p e r i o d . y e a r s y e a r s . t h e y 1 9 5 5 e n I I . b i r t h s a t a n i n c r e a s e d b e b i r t h s l e a s t w i t h S t a t i s t i c s o f a n d a i n a r t h e 3 0 a v e r a g e w o m f u t u r e a g e . w o m a s o v e r s i t u a t i o n w o m o f t h e i n c r e a s e s s i z e a n y w o m a t i o n b e f o r e o r d e r r e m y e a r s s e c o n d , r i s e t o p r o j e c t i n g i t c h i l d p r o p o r t i o n p e r c e n t . a c t u a l l y W o l d i n p h y s i o l o g a n p o s t p o n e d in a n d l a t e r , e n f o r u n l i k e l y o r l d f o r m o f o r w o m l a r g e r o f o f i l y o r d e r h i g h e r f o r w e r e c o u l d p r o j e c t i o n b e t w e e n a n d W a n d h a d l a r g e r m o l d e r r e d u c e d p r o p o r t i o n a c c o u n t e t h o d 3 8 f i r s t , 2 0 - 2 4 o f F e r t i l i t y . Tt 3 2 b e t w e e n g r o u p , g r o u p w h i c h m a b y l o n g e r y e a r s c h i l d b e a r i n g h a v e i l i e s n o i c t h a t a c c e l e r a t i o n b e r t h e i s i s c u l t u r a l h a v e t h e f a m c h i l d r e n S o o n e r s i z e a n y s p e c i f i c u n d e r f o r c e . b e d i d b e f a m u n p r e c e d e n t e d w o u l d a n d t h e t h i r d i l y a s b y s e c o n d o f i t I I t h e c o n t i n u e e c o n o m 2 0 - 2 4 N e v e r t h e l e s s , p l e t i n g e a r l i e r c h i l d b e a r i n g B u r e a u t a k e a t i o n p a g e s o s t T h i s o f b i r t h r a t e s t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e d w o u l d f a m a g e s c o m a r t h e n u m s t i l l c h i l d r e n , i n t e r r u p t e d b i r t h r a t e s u n l e s s r e a s o n a b l e . t h e y W t h a t w i l l a r r i a g e s a l r e a d y u n d o u b t e d l y p r o b a b l y l ) . t h e i r 3 b i r t h r a t e s in ( c h a r t o r d e r o r a n d o c c u r r e d h a v i n g h i g h e r o f f i r s t c h i l d r e n o l d e r w i l l e f f e c t s i n a t i o n o r b o t h m a n d p l a c e , o l d t h e y f a v o r a b l e o r l d a v e r a g e c h i l d r e n . 2 i n g 1 5 - 1 9 e n d r e c o g n i z e t h a t e a r l i e r W b y t h e b e c a u s e w e r e 1 9 3 0 's o f e n y e a r s t h e w i l l e n d w o m i t e d 3 4 a s b e a r a t e n e o l d h a v e g r o u p w o m t h e e x a m d e c l i n e a n d o f h a v i n g s e c o n d c h i l d r e n l a t t e r l i m t o a s s u m t o w a r d s e c o n d c o n s i d e r e d y e a r s c a n t h e b e 3 0 s a m y e a r s a l r e a d y o l d e r a t e l y t h e t h e y e n t h e a r r i e d t o p r o b a b l e e v e n a f t e r I n i m p o r t a n t i m t r e n d m e n i s i s t h e 1 9 5 2 . w o m I t i t f u t u r e , o f u s u a l l y n o w d e p r e s s i o n r a t e s a g e w h i c h m o f t h e u l t i m 1 9 5 7 , t h e i r w o m a s a n y f r o m s i n c e w i l l I n e n o f y o u n g e r M a t i o n o l d - - t h e e n d in p l a c e , a c c e l e r a t e d c h i l d r e n - - a b o u t y e a r s u n u s u a l ; p r o p o r t i o n s i n c r e a s e d f a c t o r s . B i r t h r a t e s . a r e f i r s t a n d T h e f o r m i n l o n g t h e 1 9 4 0 n o t i c a l v e r y I n a p p a r e n t . h a v e T r e n d s d e s c r i b e d w i t h i s a t 2 7 t o p l i e s f o u r t h , a s s u m w i l l y e a r - o l d f r o m i m e d r i s e s h a r p l y a n d t h a t f r o m l e a s t 2 w o m e n , 4 1 a t h e 5 2 t o c h i l d r e n t h e p e r c e n t . d e c r e a s e d h i g h e r o r d e r p r o p o r t i o n 6 3 w i l l t i m e b i r t h s . o f p e r c e n t . r i s e p r o p o r t i o n w o m 3 2 6 o r e x a m e n F o r f r o m w i t h i n t e r v a l F o r t h i s t o m p l e , a g e d 4 0 o r e s a m e 13 Chart 1. B irth ra te s, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS by S e le c te d Age G ro u p s and O rd er of B irth , 1920-55 1 4 A l l o w a n c e s s p a c i n g w i l l o f h a v e l a r g e r a s s u m e d m c h i l d r e n o r e w e r e c h i l d r e n t o p r o p o r t i o n s T h e a r e a n d T h i s 1 9 7 5 . t o t a l n u m l a r g e r f a m b a b i e s t h a t t i a l l y T h e s a m e m a l l t h a n t h e o f t h i s b u l l e t i n . O n e p u r p o s e o f a s a n o t h e r e s t i m T h e s e f r a m f e m a l e p r o v i d e f r a m e w o r k t o f o r in m i n o f o f 1 9 7 5 i n a n d f a m w a s m a d e t h e 4 o n e l a b o r f o r m o u t a t i o n . r o u g h l y S e r i e s t h e I I I 7 o r t a l i t y f o r o s t t h e o f s u b s t a n a s a n d t h e o v e r p r e s e n t e d t w o i n r e a s o n s . p r o j e c r e a s o n a b l e f o r c e a n p o w e r v o c a t i o n a l i s p o p u l a t i o n m o f o f n u m b e r m a s w e l l L a b o r n e e d s g u i d a n c e f o r a s f o r D e p a r t m e n t s a n d r e s o u r c e s , a n d i n t h e s . b i r t h w o m p r o j e c t i o n s e n p r o j e c t i n g w i t h t h e y o u n g l a b o r w a s t o p r o v i d e c h i l d r e n f o r c e i n t o o f p t i o n o f r a t e s a n d m f o r e c a s t s B u r e a u f s f o r l e v e l . i l l i o n a a i n s d e c l i n e s I V a s s u m b y 1 9 7 0 . i m e s o f w i l l 6 8 a t h e i r b a s i s f a m c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s m b e a l l h a v i n g 4 T h e i l l i o n t h e 1 9 7 5 ; l e v e l 1 9 5 5 - 5 7 in e . S e r i e s b y , 1 0 e s I I I 1 9 7 0 i l i e s . o f t h e r e m d e c l i n e a s s u m t h e a i n s t h e t h e C e n s u s 1 9 5 5 - 5 7 o f 1 9 5 5 - 5 7 t h e e s l o w e s t f e r t i l i t y l e v e l c o n s t a n t a b o u t 1 8 7 . r e g a r d i n g a s s u m T h e 1 9 5 5 - 5 7 t h a t t o a n d N o . d i f f e r e n t p t i o n h i g h a b o v e t h e e s 1 9 7 5 v e r y a a t e s p e r i o d . a p o p u l a t i o n P - 2 5 , u s i n g e s t i m a n d p e r c e n t a s s u m a n d w i l l s a m e s a m e t h a t o n e t h e s e p l i e s r e v i s e d S e r i e s e a c h 1 9 5 8 t h e I - - i m a s s u m l e v e l o f b e t w e e n b a b i e s i. t h e h i g h e s t b o r n p r o j e c t i o n u n t i l p u b l i s h e d R e p o r t s , p r e s e n t e d , 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 7 5 , II 1 9 4 9 - 5 1 t h a t b u t r e c e n t l y b e e n i g r a t i o n . p e r i o d t h e h a v e h a s P o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n - - S e r i e s S e r i e s c o n s t a n t t o m b a b i e s t o t a l t h e C e n s u s C u r r e n t b i r t h r a t e s , h i g h e s t T h e t h e i n p r o j e c t i o n s d e a t h 9 7 o f 1 9 8 0 t o e d n o w o u t p t i o n s e l e c t e d f o r c e o r a s s u m f a c t o r f a c t o r i l y a r e i d - 1 9 2 0 * s . b i r t h s w e r e w a s 5 b e t w e e n a s s u m t h i s w h o w h o m a j o r r e g a r d i n g t h e t h e t h e e n T h e s e e x p e c t e d l a b o r o f m o r e B u r e a u f s c a r r y i n g N a t i o n * s in A n 1 9 7 5 S e r i e s s e l e c t a d e t o m i n w o m e n i l l i o n o f e v a l u a t i n g t o u s e d m a k i n g b e r t o o f w o m s i n c e m t h e p t i o n s p r o j e c t i o n s t h e b e u p t h a t o f o r d e r p r o g r a m n u m u s e d e a n s s t u d i e s a t i o n t r a i n i n g t h e i n 2 2 C e n s u s a s s u m m t h e a c c e l e r a t e d t h e c h a n g e b i r t h r a t e e f f e c t b i r t h s b i r t h s m o r i s h i g h a b o u t p r o j e c t i o n s o f a s s e s s i n g i n f o r m w e r e t h e a B u r e a u f o r o f a s s u m r e m f o r p r o j e c t i o n t o B u r e a u s e t s l e v e l o f in t h e t h e t h e a l l a n y t i m e i n c r e a s i n g o f u s e d 4 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 7 5 . b u t p t i o n o f w i t h c h i l d r e n f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n . 7 T h e t h a t e d e w o r k p u r p o s e p r o j e c t i o n s F o u r a s s u m p t i o n s D e p a r t m e n t a t i n g d a t a o f f u t u r e r e a s o n a b l e , o v e r a l l e n t e f f e c t t h e f o r p r o p o r t i o n r e s p e c t i v e l y . a t o f p e r i o d p r o j e c t i o n s e e m C e n s u s A n o t h e r f o r t h i s t h e S i n c e p r o v i d i n g d e v e l o p m t h e a s s u m T h e L a b o r t h e i n b e t w e e n p o p u l a t i o n . r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r o f o f w a s t h e h a s y e a r s b e e n a l s o p o p u l a t i o n u s e t h a t h a v e o n l y t h e p e r c e n t , a c c o u n t e d f o r i n p r o p o r t i o n s c o n t i n u a t i o n a l o n e b o r n b i r t h i g r a t i o n t i o n s a l s o b e 2 5 i n t e r v a l p r o j e c t e d w i l l p r o j e c t i o n i m b e r r e s u l t s a s t h e e x p e c t e d t h e f e r t i l e a n d t h e y n o t i n c r e a s e t h e i r t h a n f a c t o r i l i e s l e s s in t h e o f p r o j e c t i o n a n 1 9 7 5 , p e r c e n t h i g h e r f o r t h e f o r B y e n d 3 5 d e c r e a s e in a l s o i l i e s . t h e a r e a c c o u n t i n g t h e f a m r e a c h m a d e b u t f e r t i l i t y l e v e l 1 9 7 5 ; 1 9 4 2 - 4 4 S e r i e s l e v e l 15 A c c o r d in g to S e r ie s III, the to ta l p o p u la tio n w ill r e a c h ab ou t 225 m illio n b y 1975 and ab ou t 78 m illio n b a b ie s w ill be b o rn b e tw e e n 1958 and 1975. T h is p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n a s s u m e s the co n tin u a tio n of a r e la t iv e ly h igh le v e l of p r o s p e r ity d u rin g the n ex t 17 y e a r s . A n u m b er of im p o r ta n t s h ifts w ill take p la c e in the age d is tr ib u tio n of the p o p u la tio n b e tw e e n 1955 and 1975. One of the m o r e im p o r ta n t d e v e lo p m e n ts a ffe c tin g the a g e d istr ib u tio n of the p o p u la tio n w ill o c c u r b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 w h en p e r s o n s b o rn d u rin g the d e p r e s s io n w h en the b ir th r a te s w e r e lo w w ill b e r e a c h in g the a ge grou p 2 5 -3 4 . A s a r e s u lt, th is grou p w ill a c tu a lly d e c lin e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965. The age grou p 1 5 -2 4 w ill in c r e a s e d u rin g the sa m e p e r io d b y about 9 m illio n a s the la r g e r n u m b e r s b o rn a fte r the b eg in n in g of W orld W ar II a tta in w o rk in g a g e . B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975, p e r s o n s in the p r im a r y w o rk in g a g e s (2 5 -4 4 ) w ill in c r e a s e fr o m 47 m illio n to 54 m illio n . The p o p u la tio n grou p a g ed 1 5 -2 4 w ill co n tin u e to in c r e a s e , r is in g fr o m 31 to 40 m illio n . D u rin g the e n tir e p e r io d 1955 to 1 9 75, th e r e w ill be a ste a d y in c r e a s e in the n u m b er of p e r s o n s o v e r 65 y e a r s of a g e fr o m 14 to 22 m illio n , and an in c r e a s e in the n u m b er of c h ild r e n u n d er 10 fr o m 35 m illio n to 46 m illio n . Labor F orce T rends A fte r e v a lu a tio n of e x p e c te d s h ifts in the s iz e and c o m p o sitio n of the p o p u la tio n (w h ich is the b a s ic d e te r m in a n t of la b o r fo r c e g ro w th ), the n e x t ste p in the p r e p a r a tio n of la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s is to e s tim a te fu tu re c h a n g e s in the r a te s o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n , i. e . , the p r o p o r tio n s of the v a r io u s p o p u la tio n g ro u p s in the la b o r fo r c e . T h e se r a te s h a v e b e e n ch an gin g r a th e r slo w ly o v e r a lo n g p e r io d of y e a r s in r e s p o n s e to s o c ia l and e c o n o m ic f o r c e s . A r e v ie w of la b o r fo r c e gro w th and of the fa c to r s w h ich a ffe c t the w o r k p r o p e n s itie s of p a r tic u la r p o p u la tio n g ro u p s p r o v id e s the b a s is fo r e s tim a tin g fu tu re c h a n g e s. The la b o r fo r c e o f the U n ited S ta te s exp an d ed fr o m about 20 m illio n in 1890 to o v e r 40 m illio n in 1920 and to a lm o s t 70 m illio n in 1955, ro u g h ly p a r a lle lin g p o p u la tio n g ro w th . The an n u al a v e r a g e p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in the la b o r fo r c e d rop p ed fr o m 2 .4 p e r c e n t fo r the p e r io d 1 8 9 0 -1 9 0 0 to 1. 6 p e r c e n t fo r 1 9 2 0 -3 0 , s im ila r to the p a tte r n of in c r e a s e fo r the p o p u la tio n . (S ee tab le 5. ) The further drop to 1. 2 p e r c e n t in the fo llo w in g d e ca d e w a s d u e, in p a r t, to the sa m e e c o n o m ic fo r c e s w h ich b ro u g h t sh a rp d e c lin e s in the m a r r ia g e and b ir t h r a t e s - - f e w e r young p e o p le , w o m e n , and o ld e r p eo p le w e r e in the la b o r fo r c e than m ig h t h ave b e e n the c a s e if the d e p r e s s io n had n ot c u r ta ile d job o p p o r tu n itie s. In the 1 9 4 0 's , w ith im p r o v in g e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s and w a r tim e n e e d s fo r a d d itio n a l w o r k e r s , the d ow n tren d in the r a te of g ro w th in the la b o r fo r c e w a s r e v e r s e d . The m a n p o w er r e q u ir e m e n ts of the A r m e d F o r c e s and o f in d u str y b e tw e e n 1940 and 1945 b ro u g h t in to the la b o r fo r c e 8 m illio n w o r k e r s o v e r and ab ove the n u m b er e x p e c te d on the b a s is o f lo n g - 16 te r m tr e n d s. 8 T h e se a d d itio n s w e r e p r im a r ily w o m e n , y o u n g s te r s , and o ld e r m e n , the v e r y g ro u p s w h o se a c tiv ity had b e e n lim ite d b y la c k o f o p p o rtu n ity d u rin g the 1930* s. W hile m o s t of th e s e " e x tr a 11 w o r k e r s le ft the la b o r fo r c e sh o r tly a fte r the en d o f W orld W ar II, an a c c e le r a tio n in the lo n g -te r m in c r e a s e in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n of ad u lt w o m en fo llo w e d , p a r tly a s a r e s u lt o f w o rk e x p e r ie n c e g a in ed d u rin g the w ar b y w o m en w ho h ad n ot p r e v io u s ly w o r k e d . The an n u al a v e r a g e p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in the la b o r fo r c e o v e r the w h o le d eca d e (1 9 4 0 -5 0 ) r o s e to 1 .4 p e r c e n t. P o p u la tio n c h a n g e s w e r e an im p o r ta n t fa c to r in the la b o r fo r c e g ro w th in the p r e s e n t d e c a d e . R e la tiv e ly s m a ll a d d itio n s to the p o p u la tio n of w o rk in g age o c c u r r e d b e tw e e n 1950 and 1955 a s the s m a lle r n u m b ers b o rn d u rin g the d e p r e s s e d th ir tie s r e a c h e d w o rk in g a g e . A s a r e s u lt , the an n u al r a te o f in c r e a s e o f the la b o r fo r c e d e c lin e d s lig h tly to 1. 3 p e r c e n t. T ab le 5. T o ta l la b o r fo r c e , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 5 5 T o ta l la b o r fo r c e ( m illio n s ) Y ea r D e c e n n ia l c e n s u s : 1$90 (J u n e ).................................. 1900 (J u n e ).................................. 1920 (J a n u a r y )......................... 1930 ( A p r il) ............................... 1940 ( A p r il) ............................... 2 1. 8 27. 6 40. 3 4 7 .4 53. 3 C u r r e n t p o p u la tio n 1940 (A nnual 1950 (A nnual 1955 (A nnual 56. 2 64. 7 6 8 .9 r e p o r ts : average) . . . average) . . . average) . .. A v e r a g e annual p e r c e n t in c r e a s e o v e r p r e c e d in g d a te 1 — 2 .4 1. 9 1 .6 1. 2 — 1 .4 1 .3 C o m p o u n d e d a n n u a lly . .S o u rce: D e c e n n ia l c e n s u s d ata fr o m John D . D u ran d , The L ab or F o r c e in the U n ited S ta te s , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 6 0 ; C u r r e n t p o p u la tio n r e p o r ts data fr o m U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u rea u of the C e n s u s , A nnual R e p o r ts on the L a b o r F o r c e , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o s. 2, 3 1 , and 67. 8 R e c e n t T ren d s in the L a b o r F o r c e (in M o n th ly L ab or R e v ie w , D e c e m b e r 1947, p . 6 4 Q) • 17 T he g ro w th o f the la b o r f o r c e , w h ile r e fle c tin g p r im a r ily the in c r e a s e in the p o p u la tio n , h a s a ls o b e e n a ffe c te d b y c h a n g e s o v e r the y e a r s in the d e g r e e o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n on the p a r t of m en and w o m en in v a r io u s a g e g r o u p s. C h a r a c te r is tic a lly , n e a r ly a ll m e n 2 5 -5 4 w o r k or s e e k w o r k , e x c e p t fo r a s m a ll p r o p o r tio n w ho a r e d isa b le d o r in in s titu tio n s . (S ee c h a r t 2 .) A lm o s t a s la r g e a p r o p o r tio n of m en 5 5 -6 4 a r e in the la b o r fo r c e , the s m a ll r e d u c tio n r e fle c tin g a g r e a te r in c id e n c e o f d isa b lin g illn e s s and so m e r e tir e m e n ts . In none o f th e se a g e g ro u p s h a s the p r o p o r tio n in the la b o r fo r c e ch a n g ed s ig n ific a n tly o v e r the y e a r s . (S ee ta b le 6 and c h a r t 3 .) T ab le 6. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s , b y a ge and s e x , A p r il 1 9 2 0 , 1 9 5 0 , and 1957 A g e and s e x 1920 1950 1957 55. 8 56. 8 5 7 .4 8 5 .9 5 5 .9 9 0 .7 9 6. 2 9 6 .6 9 4 .5 8 7 .4 57. 1 8 2 .4 47. 5 8 6 .9 9 4 .4 9 6. 5 94. 6 8 5. 1 45. 0 8 1. 0 4 5 .3 8 6. 6 9 6 .2 9 6 .9 9 5. 1 86. 3 3 6 .7 24. 1 2 9 .6 3 9 .3 25. 0 20. 6 1 9 .4 1 5 .3 8 .2 3 1. 9 2 6 .4 4 4 .4 33. 5 38. 0 3 6 .9 27. 3 9. 5 34. 8 2 6 .4 4 4 .7 3 4 .7 42. 6 4 5 .9 3 4 .2 10. 6 B oth s e x e s 14 y e a r s and o v e r ............................... M ale 14 y e a r s and o v e r ............................... 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s .......................................... 2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ......................................... 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s .......................................... 3 5 -4 4 y e a r s .......................................... 4 5 - 54 y e a r s ......................................... 5 5 -6 4 y e a r s ............................ • • • • • 65 y e a r s and o v e r .............. .. F e m a le 14 y e a r s and o v e r ............................... 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s .......................................... 2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ......................................... 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s .......................................... 3 5 -4 4 y e a r s ......................................... 4 5 -5 4 y e a r s .......................................... 5 5 -6 4 y e a r s .......................................... 65 y e a r s and o v e r ............................ S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s . -1 8Chart 2- P opulation and L abor F orce By A g e and S ex A p ril 1957 Females Males M illions 14 15 15 14 14 to 24 ; 18 on*d 19 m 15 14 12 10 In the Labor Force In School i l : 16 ond 17 14 onid 15 _____ i___ 2 0 2 Millions 6 8 _L_ _L- 10 12 14 15 %* j In Housework Other Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 19 Chart 3. Percent o f Men and Women in the Labor Force By A g e Groups, A pril 1920, 1950, and 1957 Male Percent 100 Percent 100 80 80 60 - 60 40 - - 40 20 - 20 Female 60 60 40 - 40 20 - - 20 14-19 20-24 2 5 -3 4 35-44 AGE '920 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LA B OR S TA T I S T IC S 45-54 55-64 65 and Over GROUP [22] 1950 1957 Sou rce: U. S. Bureau of the Census 20 T he c h a n g e s in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s h a v e o c c u r r e d am on g th o se g ro u p s w h e r e the r a te s a r e m u ch lo w e r - - m e n u n d er a g e 25 and o v e r a g e 64 and am on g w o m e n . M o st o f th e m e n u n d er a g e 25 not in th e la b o r fo r c e a r e in sc h o o l; in a g e s o v e r 6 4 , the n o n w o r k e r s a r e m a in ly d is a b le d o r r e tir e d . A m on g the w o m e n , la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r e a c h e s a p e a k in the la te te e n s and e a r ly tw e n tie s a s young w o m e n fin is h s c h o o l, b e fo r e m a r r ia g e and the b ir th o f c h ild r e n b r in g w ith d r a w a ls fr o m e m p lo y m e n t. A fte r ab ou t a g e 35 a s th e ir c h ild r e n r e a c h sc h o o l a g e , the p r o p o r tio n o f w o m e n e m p lo y e d o u tsid e the h o m e r i s e s . A fte r a g e 55, h o w e v e r , la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r w o m e n ten d to d rop o ff. I n c r e a s in g L a b o r F o r c e P a r tic ip a tio n o f W om en T he m o s t sig n ific a n t co n tin u in g ch a n g e in the e x te n t o f la b o r fo r c e a c tiv ity h a s b e e n the s te a d y m o v e m e n t o f w o m en fr o m the h o m e in to the la b o r m a r k e t. A c o m b in a tio n of fa c to r s h a s b e e n r e s p o n s ib le fo r th is t r e n d - - s o m e d e m o g r a p h ic , so m e so c io e c o n o m ic ^ T he sh ift o f p o p u la tio n fr o m r u r a l a r e a s to to w n s and c it ie s h a s p la c e d m o r e w o m en in g e o g r a p h ic lo c a tio n s w h e r e job o p p o r tu n itie s a r e ex p a n d in g in m a n u fa c tu r in g and in c le r ic a l, s a le s , and s e r v ic e jo b s; c a r e o f the h o m e and fa m ily h a s b e c o m e l e s s tim e c o n su m in g a s a r e s u lt o f th e a v a ila b ility o f re a d y m a d e c lo th in g , p a c k a g e d fo o d s , la b o r sa v in g h o m e e q u ip m e n t, and m a n y k in d s o f s e r v ic e s . A t th e sa m e t im e , or p e r h a p s to so m e e x te n t b e c a u s e o f th e s e d e v e lo p m e n ts , e m p lo y m e n t o f w o m en a ls o h a s b e c o m e m o r e a c c e p ta b le to the c o m m u n ity .9 T he g r e a tly ex p a n d ed n e e d fo r m a n p o w er d u rin g W orld W ar U p la y e d an im p o r ta n t p a r t in a c c e le r a tin g the h is t o r ic a l tr e n d to w a rd in c r e a s e d p a r tic ip a tio n of w o m en in the la b o r f o r c e . A g r e a t n u m b er o f w o m e n o f a ll a g e s w ho h ad n e v e r w o r k e d b e fo r e to o k jo b s d u rin g th is p e r io d . O th e r s ch a n g ed jo b s and le a r n e d n ew s k ills and s t ill o th e r s w ho w o u ld n o r m a lly h a v e r e m a in e d at h o m e a s h o u s e w iv e s r e tu r n e d to w o r k a t th e ir o ld s k ills . S in c e th e w a r , th e g e n e r a lly h ig h le v e ls o f p r o d u c tio n and e m p lo y m e n t h a v e p r o v id e d s u ffic ie n t job o p p o r tu n itie s fo r the co n tin u ed r is e in the n u m b er o f w o m en in the la b o r fo r c e . M o st o f the in c r e a s e in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n b y a d u lt w o m e n h a s b e e n a m on g m a r r ie d w o m en h a v in g no p r e s c h o o l- a g e c h ild r e n in the h o m e . T he c a r e o f you n g c h ild r e n p r e s e n t s a str o n g d e te r r e n t to m o th e r s w o rk in g o u tsid e the h o m e . T h is is r e fle c te d in the lo w la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n 9 F o r a c o m p r e h e n s iv e d is c u s s io n of d e v e lo p m e n ts , s e e W om en*s O c c u p a tio n s T h rou gh S e v e n D e c a d e s , W om en*s B u r e a u B u ll. 2 1 8 , June 1 9 4 7 , U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f L a b o r . 21 r a te s fo r w o m e n w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e . On the b a s is o f lim ite d d ata a v a ila b le fo r r e c e n t y e a r s , it a p p e a r s th at th is g r o u p 1s p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s sh o w ed o n ly a m o d e s t in c r e a s e d u rin g a p e r io d w h en th e r e w e r e sh a rp in c r e a s e s in the r a te s fo r m a r r ie d w o m e n o f the sa m e a g e w ho h ad no you n g c h ild r e n . S in ce a la r g e p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in a g e s 2 0 -3 4 l^ave young c h ild r e n , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r th e s e a g e s h a v e n ot r is e n a s m u ch a s h a v e th o se fo r the o ld e r g r o u p s. D e c lin in g L a b o r F o r c e P a r tic ip a tio n o f Y oung P e r s o n s In c o n tr a s t to the tren d fo r a d u lt w o m en w o r k e r s , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r y o u th s h a v e b e e n d e c lin in g s lo w ly o v e r a lo n g p e r io d o f tim e . T he h is t o r ic a l m o v e m e n t of p o p u la tio n a w a y fr o m fa r m s h a s d im in ish e d e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s fo r th is g ro u p . On the fa r m s , you n g p e r s o n s p r o v id e d so m e of the s e a s o n a l m a n p o w er n e e d e d d u rin g the p e a k s of fa r m o p e r a tio n s; in the c it ie s , e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s w e r e m o r e lim ite d . M o r e o v e r , the a g e o f e n tr y in to the la b o r fo r c e h a s b e e n p o stp o n e d b y the ste a d y le n g th e n in g in the p e r io d of s c h o o lin g , p a r tly b e c a u s e o f c o m p u ls o r y sc h o o l-a tte n d a n c e la w s , and la w s b a r r in g the e m p lo y m e n t of c h ild r e n , but a ls o b e c a u s e the s k ills n e e d e d b y w o r k e r s in our c o m p le x s o c ie ty r e q u ir e a g r e a te r p e r io d of fo r m a l tr a in in g . A t p r e s e n t, the e ffe c t o f the fa r m -to -u r b a n m o v e m e n t on w o rk a c tiv ity o f young p e o p le , is l e s s im p o r ta n t. The d e m o g r a p h ic fa c to r b e a r in g m o s t on the e x te n t o f la b o r m a r k e t a c tiv ity o f te e n - a g e r s and o f m e n a g ed 2 0 -2 4 is sc h o o l e n r o llm e n t, s in c e a tten d in g sc h o o l n e c e s s a r ily lim it s la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n . W ith in c r e a s in g p r o p o r tio n s o f the young p o p u la tio n in s c h o o l, the o v e r a ll e x te n t o f th e ir w o rk a c tiv ity h a s d e c lin e d , a lth o u g h so m e u p tren d in w o rk a c tiv ity am on g c o lle g e - a g e stu d e n ts h a s o c c u r r e d , u n d o u b ted ly r e la te d to the g e n e r a l a v a ila b ility of jo b s , to the h ig h e r c o s t o f e d u c a tio n , and to the fa c t th at a c o n s id e r a b le n u m b er o f c o lle g e stu d e n ts a r e m a r r ie d . 1 0 D e c lin in g L a b o r F o r c e P a r tic ip a tio n o f O ld er M en A d e c lin e in the ra te o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n o f m e n 65 y e a r s and o ld e r h a s b e e n a n o th er m a jo r d e v e lo p m e n t r e s u ltin g in p a r t fr o m the sh ift fr o m fa r m s , w h e r e o ld e r p e o p le ten d to w o rk a s lo n g a s th e y a r e p h y s ic a lly a b le , to c it ie s w h e r e e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n itie s fo r th is g rou p a r e m o r e lim ite d . A n o th er im p o r ta n t fa c to r in th is d ow n w ard tren d h a s b e e n e a r lie r r e tir e m e n t, m a d e p o s s ib le b y the e n a c tm e n t o f s o c ia l- s e c u r it y la w s and 10In 1956, 43 p e r c e n t o f m a le c o lle g e stu d e n ts a g e d 2 0 -3 4 y e a r s w e r e m a r r ie d , a c c o r d in g to the U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 0 , N o. 7 4 ? 22 the sp r e a d o f p r iv a te p e n sio n p la n s , a s w e ll a s g r e a te r p e r s o n a l s a v in g s m a d e d u rin g the p r o s p e r ity o f r e c e n t y e a r s . M o r e o v e r , o ld e r w o m en * s in c r e a s e d p r o p e n s ity to w o r k im p lie s g r e a te r n u m b e r s o f o ld e r m e n w ill be a b le to r e tir e in the fu tu re w ith th e a s s u r a n c e o f m o r e a d eq u a te in c o m e sin c e th e ir w iv e s w ill a ls o b e e lig ib le fo r b e n e fits . C h a n g es in A g e C o m p o sitio n o f the L a b o r F o r c e , 1900 to 1955 The ch a n g ed str u c tu r e o f the p o p u la tio n to g e th e r w ith the d e v e lo p m e n ts in r a te s o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n h a v e b ro u g h t about s h ifts in the c o m p o sitio n of th e la b o r f o r c e . B e tw e e n 1900 and 1 9 5 5 , the m o s t s ig n ific a n t c h a n g e s in the a g e d istr ib u tio n o f the la b o r fo r c e w e r e a d e c lin e fr o m 31 p e r c e n t to 1‘8 'p e r c e n t in the p r o p o r tio n of w o r k e r s a g e d 14 to 24 and an in c r e a s e fr o m 20 p e r c e n t to 31 p e r c e n t in thq p r o p o r tio n w ho w e r e 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s o f a g e . (S ee ta b le 7 .) T h e se c h a n g e s fo llo w e d f a ir ly c lo s e ly the a g in g o f the p o p u la tio n ( d is c u s s e d on p a g e 7) r e fle c tin g the u n d e r ly in g lo n g -te r m d e c lin e in th e b ir th r a te , the c u r ta ilm e n t o f la r g e - s c a le im m ig r a tio n and the in c r e a s e s in lo n g e v ity . H o w e v e r , the p r o p o r tio n o f young p e o p le in the w o rk fo r c e d e c lin e d m o r e th an in the p o p u la tio n . A m on g the o ld e r g r o u p s , the la b o r fo r c e g r e w m o r e r a p id ly than th e p o p u la tio n b e c a u s e o f the in c r e a s e d te n d e n c y fo r w o m en in a g e s 4 5 -6 4 to w o r k o u tsid e the h o m e . T h is in c r e a s in g w o r k a c tiv ity of a d u lt w o m en h a s b e e n r e fle c te d in the r is in g p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in the la b o r f o r c e - - in 1 9 00, ab ou t 18 p e r c e n t o f a ll w o r k e r s w e r e w om en ; in 1 9 5 5 , the r a tio w a s o v e r 30 p e r c e n t. M eth od o f P r o je c tin g the L a b o r F o r c e In the y e a r s a h ea d , the s iz e and the age str u c tu r e o f the p o p u la tio n w ill co n tin u e to b e the m o s t im p o r ta n t fa c to r in d e te r m in in g h ow la r g e the la b o r fo r c e w ill be w ith c h a n g e s in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s h a v in g m u ch s m a lle r effect". T he B u r e a u of L a b o r S ta tis tic s p r o je c tio n s of the s iz e and a g e - s e x c o m p o s itio n o f the la b o r fo r c e m ak e s p e c ific a llo w a n c e fo r the e f f e c ts o f sc h o o l e n r o llm e n t o f the young p o p u la tio n , the m a r ita l sta tu s of a d u lt w o m e n , the n u m b er o f w o m en w h o w ill h a v e c h ild r e n o f p r e s c h o o l- a g e , and the r e tir e m e n t tr e n d s a m o n g m en 65 y e a r s and o l d e r .11 T h e se p r o je c tio n s a ls o p r o v id e an a d d itio n a l d im e n s io n --th e grow th o f the la b o r fo r c e in te r m s o f fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s --w h ic h h a s an im p o r ta n t b e a r in g on the q u a lity o f the w o r k f o r c e , on the r e la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n the d em a n d and su p p ly of w o r k e r s in s p e c ific in d u s tr ie s and o c c u p a tio n s, on the n e e d fo r tr a in in g , and on la b o r tu r n o v e r . The p r o je c tio n s b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e sta tu s a r e d is c u s s e d in g r e a te r d e ta il on p a g e s 4 2 -4 9 . 11 T h e se la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s fa ll w ith in th e ra n g e o f th o se p u b lish e d b y the U. S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s in C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o. 69 ( r e v is e d in m im e o g r a p h fo r m D e c e m b e r 1958). 23 T he la b o r fo r c e w a s p r o je c te d s e p a r a te ly fo r e a c h a g e - s e x grou p b y m u ltip ly in g the p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n (S e r ie s III) b y the e s tim a te d p e r c e n t o f the p o p u la tio n w ho w ou ld be in the la b o r fo r c e a t a s p e c ifie d fu tu re tim e . P r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e fo r the y e a r s 1960, 1 9 65, 1970, and 1975 and fo r e a c h y e a r b e tw e e n I9 6 0 and 1965, w h en sh a rp in c r e a s e s in the n u m b er o f you n g w o r k e r s a r e e x p e c te d a s a r e s u lt of the la r g e n u m b er o f b ir th s o c c u r r in g a fte r W orld W ar II. T a b le 7. D istr ib u tio n o f the la b o r f o r c e , b y age and s e x , June 1900 and an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1950 and 1955 A g e and s e x N u m b er (m illio n s ) 1950 1900 1955 P e r c e n t d istr ib u tio n 1955 1900 1950* B oth s e x e s 14 y e a r s and o v e r .............. 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s . ....................... 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s ......................... 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s . • • • • • • • • • 65 y e a r s and over. . . . . 27. 6 8. 5 1 2 .4 5. 6 1. 1 6 4 .6 13. 3 29. 2 19. 1 3. 0 6 8 .9 1 2 .7 3 1 .4 21. 6 3 .3 100. 0 3 0 .9 44. 7 2 0 .4 4. 0 100. 0 2 0. 5 45. 2 2 9. 6 4. 7 100. 0 1 8 .4 45. 5 3 1. 3 4 .8 2 2. 6 6. 1 1 0 .6 5. 0 1. 0 4 5 .9 8. 6 2 0 .9 1 3 .9 2. 5 48. 8. 2 2. 15. 2. 0 2 3 0 5 100. 0 27. 1 46. 6 21. 9 4 .4 100. 0 1 8 .7 45. 6 3 0 .4 5. 3 100. 0 17. 1 4 6 .4 31. 2 5 .3 5. 0 2 .4 1 .8 .7 .1 1 8 .7 4 .7 8. 3 5. 2 .6 2 0 .9 4 .4 9. 1 6 .6 .8 100. 0 48. 2 35. 8 1 3 .4 2. 5 100. 0 2 5. 0 44. 3 2 7 .7 3. 1 100. 0 2 1. 3 43. 5 3 1 .4 3 .7 M a le 14 y e a r s and o v e r .............. 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s .............. .. . . . 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s ......................... 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s ...................... • 65 y e a r s and o ver. . • . . F e m a le 14 y e a r s and o v e r .............. 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s ......................... 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s . ....................... 4 5 - 6 4 ‘y e a r s ......................... 65 y e a r s and o v er. • • • • N o te: B e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g , su m s o f in d iv id u a l ite m s do n ot n e c e s s a r ily eq u a l t o ta ls . P e r c e n ts a r e b a se d on u n rou n d ed f ig u r e s . S o u r c e : 1900 d ata fr o m John D . D u ran d , T he L a b o r F o r c e in the U n ited S ta te s , 1 8 9 0 -1 9 6 0 ; 1 9 5 0 -5 5 d ata fr o m U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m erce, B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o s . 31 and 69. 24 T he p r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e on the b a s ic a s s u m p tio n s th at p a s t tr e n d s in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w ill co n tin u e in to the fu tu re and th at the N a tio n 1s e c o n o m y w ill co n tin u e to exp an d and p r o v id e job o p p o r tu n itie s su ita b le to the g ro u p s e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e . It w a s a ls o a s s u m e d th at th e r e w ou ld be no m a jo r w a r w h ich m ig h t b rin g s ig n ific a n t c h a n g e s in the s iz e o f the A r m e d F o r c e s and in the p r o p o r tio n of the p o p u la tio n in the la b o r f o r c e . A n o th er a ssu m p tio n w a s th at a d d itio n a l sc h o o l f a c ilit ie s and sta ff w ill be a v a ila b le to a c c o m m o d a te the ex p a n d in g n u m b e r s of stu d en ts w ho w ill w an t to co n tin u e th e ir e d u c a tio n b ey o n d h ig h sc h o o l. M en 2 5 -6 4 Y e a r s o f A g e P r o je c tio n s to 1975 o f the n u m b er o f m en w o r k e r s a g ed 2 5 -5 4 ca n be m a d e w ith r e a so n a b le a c c u r a c y . V e r y little ch a n g e h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d in the p a s t in the p r o p o r tio n s o f m e n o f th e s e a g e s in the la b o r fo r c e . The v a r ia tio n s th at h a v e o c c u r r e d in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r th e se a g e s h a v e b e e n te m p o r a r y and u s u a lly in r e s p o n s e to s p e c ia l c ir c u m s ta n c e s . T w o e x a m p le s w ill illu s tr a te th is p oin t: L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m e n o f th e s e a g e s in c r e a s e d so m e w h a t d u rin g W orld W ar II w h en m a n p o w er n e e d s m a d e p o s s ib le the e m p lo y m e n t o f so m e h a n d ica p p ed p e r s o n s p r e v io u s ly r e g a r d e d a s u n ab le to w ork ; the r a te s fo r m e n 2 5 -3 4 d e c lin e d in the y e a r s im m e d ia te ly a fte r W orld W ar II w h en m a n y m o r e than u su a l in th is age g rou p w e r e a tten d in g sc h o o l fu ll tim e u n d er the p r o v is io n s o f the GI b ill of r ig h ts . S in ce th e r e is no r e a s o n to e x p e c t a n y c h a n g e s so b a s ic a s to be r e fle c te d in c h a n g e s in the w o r k p r o p e n s itie s o f m e n in th e s e a g e s , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t a t the 1955 b a s e -p o in t le v e l fo r a g e s 2 5 -3 4 , 3 5 -4 4 , and 4 5 -5 4 (A p p en d ix ta b le A - l ) . F o r m e n in the a g e grou p 5 5 -6 4 the p r o p o r tio n in the la b o r fo r c e is so m e w h a t s m a lle r than fo r m e n in a g e s 2 5 -5 4 . T h is lo w e r w o rk p r o p e n s ity is r e la te d to g r e a te r o c c u r r e n c e o f d is a b ility and illn e s s and o f v o lu n ta r y r e tir e m e n t, p a r tic u la r ly in the 6 0 -6 4 a ge g ro u p . The w o r k e r ra te fo r m e n 5 5 -6 4 h a s sh ow n so m e v a r ia tio n in p a s t y e a r s but n ot in a c o n s is te n t p a tte r n . A s m a ll d e c lin e o c c u r r e d b e tw e e n 1930 and 19 4 0 , w h ich p r o b a b ly r e fle c te d th e ir w ith d ra w a l fr o m the la b o r fo r c e b e c a u s e o f d iffic u ltie s in fin d in g jo b s d u rin g the d e p r e s s io n . D u rin g W orld W ar II, a s m a n p o w er n e e d s ex p a n d ed , the p r o p o r tio n o f th e se o ld e r m en in the la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e d b y s e v e r a l p e r c e n ta g e p o in ts . The p r o p o r tio n d rop p ed a fte r the w a r and h a s r e m a in e d fa ir ly c o n sta n t sin c e th en . B e c a u s e fa r m e m p lo y m e n t is m u ch m o r e im p o r ta n t fo r o ld e r m en than fo r y o u n g er w o r k e r s , the p r o p o r tio n s o f the m a le p o p u la tio n 5 5 -6 4 in fa r m w o rk and in n o n fa rm w o rk w e r e c h a r te d s e p a r a te ly and the tr e n d s e x tr a p o la te d to 1975. P a s t tr e n d s sh ow th at a s the p r o p o r tio n of the p o p u la tio n in fa r m w o rk d e c lin e d , the p r o p o r tio n in n o n fa rm w o rk in c r e a s e d b y an eq u a l a m o u n t, k eep in g the o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n ra te fa ir ly 25 c o n sta n t . It w a s d e c id e d , th e r e fo r e , th at th e o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fo r th is grou p sh o u ld a ls o b e h e ld c o n sta n t to 1975 at th e 1955 le v e l. T he p o p u la tio n p r o je c tio n s in th e s e a g e g r o u p s ca n b e c o n s id e r e d r e a s o n a b ly a c c u r a te , a lth o u g h m o r ta lity r a te s m a y b e r e d u c e d e v e n m o r e th an a s s u m e d in the p r o je c tio n s and the a m o u n t of n e t im m ig r a tio n c o u ld , o f c o u r s e , d iffe r fr o m th at a s s u m e d . T he n u m b er of m e n a g e d 2 5 -6 4 in the la b o r fo r c e o f the fu tu r e , th e r e fo r e , w ill in a ll p r o b a b ility r e f le c t a lm o s t e x c lu s iv e ly c h a n g e s in the s iz e of the p o p u la tio n . T he grou p a s a w h o le w ill sh ow an in c r e a s e o f 2 l / 4 m illio n b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965, w ith an a c t u a l d e c l i n e i n t h e 2 5 -3 4 a g e grou p a s th o se b o rn in the 1920*s a r e r e p la c e d b y the m u ch s m a lle r n u m b er o f m e n b o rn in the 1930*s. B e tw e e n 1965 and 1 9 7 5 , the in c r e a s e fo r the grou p 2 5 -6 4 w ill be about 5 l / 2 m illio n and the p a tte r n w ill b e d iffe r e n t. T he s m a lle r grou p b o rn in the 1930*s w ill m o v e on to b e c o m e the 3 5 -4 4 y e a r - o ld s in 1975 b rin g in g a d e c lin e in th at a g e grou p c o m p a r e d w ith 1965. T he 4 5 -6 4 y e a r grou p w ill in c r e a s e b y ab ou t 1 3 /4 m illio n . T he r e a lly sh a rp in c r e a s e w ill o c c u r a m o n g the 2 5 -3 4 y e a r - o ld s a s th e la r g e n u m b e r s b o r n d u rin g the 1940*s m o v e in to th is a g e b r a c k e t, w h ich in 1965 w a s o c c u p ie d b y the s m a lle r grou p b o r n in the 1930*s. M en 65 Y e a r s and O ver A s in d ic a te d in the g e n e r a l d is c u s s io n o f lo n g -te r m tr e n d s , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te o f m e n 65 and o v e r h a s b e e n d e c lin in g s te a d ily , d ro p p in g fr o m 4 5 p e r c e n t in 1950 to 37 p e r c e n t in 19 5 7 . (S ee c h a r t 3 .) F o r th is a g e grou p a ls o , a g r ic u ltu r e is an im p o r ta n t s o u r c e o f e m p lo y m e n t, a cco u n tin g fo r m o r e th an o n e -fo u r th o f m e n 65 y e a r s and o ld e r in the la b o r f o r c e . In the p a s t few y e a r s , the p r o p o r tio n o f m e n 65 and o v e r in fa r m e m p lo y m e n t h a s ten d ed to le v e l ou t and the d rop in la b o r fo r c e a c tiv ity h a s b e e n p r im a r ily in the n o n fa rm s e c to r . B e c a u s e o f the d iffe r e n t m o v e m e n ts , the p e r c e n ta g e s o f the m a le p o p u la tio n in n o n fa rm and in fa r m w o r k w e r e s e p a r a te ly e x tr a p o la te d on the b a s is o f p a s t tr e n d s . E x tr a p o la tio n s w e r e a ls o m a d e s e p a r a te ly fo r th e 6 5 -6 9 and fo r the 70 and o v e r g rou p u sin g d ata w h ich h a v e b e e n a v a ila b le o n ly in th e p a s t few y e a r s . T h is w a s done b e c a u s e o f d iffe r e n c e s in the r a p id ity w ith w h ich th e w o r k e r r a te s d e c lin e a t the o ld e r a g e s , and b e c a u s e the n u m b er o f p e r s o n s a g ed 70 and o v e r is a g ro w in g p r o p o r tio n o f the o ld e r p o p u la tio n . M o r e o v e r , d ata on a g e s a t w h ich o ld -a g e and su r v iv o r s* in su r a n c e b e n e fits a r e a w a rd ed in d ic a te a te n d e n c y fo r e a r lie r r e tir e m e n t w ith in the 6 5 -6 9 age g r o u p .12 F o r th is r e a s o n , the la b o r fo r c e r a te s fo r the a g e g rou p 6 5 -6 9 w e r e p r o je c te d a s d rop p in g m o r e sh a r p ly than fo r the 7 0 -a n d o v e r g rou p w h e r e the r a te is a lr e a d y v e r y lo w . 12U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f H ea lth , E ducation^ an d W e lfa r e , S o c ia l S e c u r ity B u lle tin , A n n u al S ta tis tic a l S u p p lem en t, 1 9 56, ta b le 28. 26 If the d e c lin e p r o je c te d fo r th e s e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s is a c h ie v e d in the fu tu r e , the n u m b er o f m e n 65 y e a r s and o v e r in th e la b o r fo r c e w ill n ot in c r e a s e s ig n ific a n tly d e sp ite sh a r p ly ex p a n d in g p o p u la tio n in th is a g e g ro u p . O f c o u r s e , th e tr a d itio n a l r e tir e m e n t a g e of 65 m a y b e m o d ifie d in th e fu tu r e . If it w e r e lo w e r e d , th e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m e n 6 0 -6 4 y e a r s o f a g e w o u ld v e r y lik e ly d e c lin e . On the o th e r h a n d , if th e a g e w e r e r a is e d , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r th e m e n 6 5 -6 9 y e a r s o f a g e w o u ld p r o b a b ly n ot d e c lin e a s r a p id ly a s p r o je c te d . T he s iz e of the p o p u la tio n and la b o r fo r c e in a g e s 65 and o v e r w o u ld a ls o be g r e a te r than p r o je c te d if m a r k e d im p r o v e m e n ts in m o r ta lity r a te s r e s u lt fr o m fu tu re d e v e lo p m e n ts in the f ie ld o f m e d ic in e . Y oung P e o p le A m on g th e d e m o g r a p h ic fa c to r s b e a r in g on the e x te n t o f la b o r m a r k e t a c tiv ity o f t e e n - a g e r s and o f m e n 2 0 -2 4 , s c h o o l e n r o llm e n t is the m o s t im p o r ta n t. L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r th o se in s c h o o l a r e m u ch lo w e r th an fo r n o n stu d e n ts o f th e sa m e a g e , b u t a s u r p r is in g ly la r g e p r o p o r tio n o f stu d e n ts a ls o h o ld jo b s . In O cto b er 1 9 5 6 , 3 9 .4 p e r c e n t o f b o y s 1 8 -1 9 in sc h o o l w e r e w o r k in g , c o m p a r e d w ith 9 0 .7 p e r c e n t o f n o n stu d e n ts o f th e sa m e a g e . 1 3 T he p e r io d o f s c h o o lin g fo r young p e o p le h a s le n g th e n e d s te a d ily . N o t o n ly a r e m o r e b o y s and g ir ls a tten d in g h ig b s c h o o l, b u t a g r o w in g p r o p o r tio n a r e g o in g on to c o lle g e . T h e se tr e n d s a r e e v id e n t in th e h ig h e r m e d ia n y e a r s of sc h o o l c o m p le te d b y th e y o u n g er p o p u la tio n c o m p a r e d with the e d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t o f p e r s o n s 20 and 30 y e a r s th e ir s e n io r (S ee ta b le 8 .) T he te n d e n c y to w a rd m o r e sc h o o lin g i s a ls o e v id e n t fr o m C e n su s d ata a v a ila b le fo r O cto b er of r e c e n t y e a r s w h ich sh ow r is in g p r o p o r tio n s o f th e p o p u la tio n a g e d 1 4 -1 7 , 1 8 -1 9 , and 2 0 -2 4 e n r o lle d in s c h o o l. (S ee ta b le 9 .) M u ch o f th e in c r e a s e a m o n g th e y o u n g e st a g e s w here th e a tte n d a n c e r a te s a r e q u ite h ig h r e s u lte d fr o m im p r o v e d sc h o o l a tte n d a n c e o f r u r a l y ou th . F o r m e n 2 0 -2 4 , it is in te r e s tin g to n ote th at th e e n r o llm e n t r a te in 1956 w a s a g a in a lm o s t a s h ig h a s th e 1947 and h ig h e r th an the 1948 r a t e s , b oth o f w h ic h r e f le c t e d la r g e e n r o llm e n ts o f v e te r a n s u n d er the GI b ill. O th er e v id e n c e o f th e te n d e n c y is p r o v id e d b y the O ffice o f E d u ca tio n fig u r e s on h ig h s c h o o l and c o lle g e e n r o llm e n ts . A co n tin u ed in c r e a s e in th e p r o p o r tio n s o f young p e r s o n s in sc h o o l w ill a ffe c t th e p r o p o r tio n s o f su c h p e r s o n s in the la b o r f o r c e . In o r d e r to q u a n tify th is fa c to r , p r o je c tio n s o f the p r o p o r tio n s and n u m b e r s in sc h o o l w e r e m a d e fo r a g e s 1 4 -1 7 , 1 8 -1 9 , and 2 0 -2 4 , b a s e d on d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s 1 3 U . S . D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o. 7 1 . 27 T a b le 8. M ed ia n y e a r s of sc h o o l c o m p le te d b y c iv ilia n p o p u la tio n , b y a g e , M a rch 1957 A ge 2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ....................................... 3 0 -3 4 y e a r s ....................................... 3 5 -4 4 y e a r s ................................... . 4 5 -5 4 y e a r s .................................... 5 5 -6 4 y e a r s ...................................... 65 y e a r s and o v e r .............. .. M ed ian sc h o o l y e a r s c o m p le te d 12. 3 12. 2 12. 0 10. 0 8 .7 8. 3 S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 0 , N o , 77. d ata fo r 1 9 2 0 , 1 9 3 0 , and 1940, and o th er C e n su s B u rea u d ata fo r O cto b er 1 9 4 7 -5 6 . T he C e n su s e n r o llm e n t d ata b y age w e r e a ls o a v a ila b le b y typ e o f s c h o o l, (i. e . , h ig h sc h o o l o r c o lle g e ) and it w a s , th e r e fo r e , p o s s ib le to p r o je c t e n r o llm e n t b y typ e of sc h o o l in o r d e r to m a in ta in c o n s is te n c y w ith p r o je c tio n s m a d e b y the (5ffice o f E d u ca tio n , w h ich did n ot p r o v id e the age in fo r m a tio n n e c e s s a r y fo r la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s . The p r o p o r tio n s e n r o lle d b y a ge and type o f sc h o o l w e r e c h a r te d and p r o je c te d b y 5 -y e a r in te r v a ls to 1975. F o r b o y s 1 4 -1 7 , the p r o p o r tio n e n r o lle d in sc h o o l w a s p r o je c te d a s r is in g fr o m about 87 p e r c e n t in 1956 to 92 p e r c e n t in 1975. T he ra te fo r 1 8 -1 9 y e a r -o ld m e n w a s a s s u m e d to in c r e a s e fr o m 36 p e r c e n t in 1956 to 52 p e r c e n t in 1 9 7 5 , and fo r 2 0 -2 4 y e a r o ld m en fr o m 15 p e r c e n t to 26 p e r c e n t. F o r g ir ls the r a t e s , a s p r o je c te d , r is e a s fo llo w s: A g e 1 4 -1 7 , fr o m 87 p e r c e n t to 90 p e r c e n t; 1 8 -1 9 , fr o m 27 p e r c e n t to 35 p e r c e n t and 2 0 -2 4 , fr o m 7 p e r c e n t to 10 p e r c e n t. T h e se p r o je c tio n s a s s u m e a co n tin u a tio n o f p a s t tr e n d s in sc h o o l e n r o llm e n t. W h eth er the e x p e c te d e n r o llm e n t w ill b e a c h ie v e d d ep en d s upon the a v a ila b ility o f sc h o o l f a c ilit ie s and te a c h e r s , the a b ility o f f a m ilie s to p a y fo r c o lle g e e d u c a tio n , and the a v a ila b ility o f p a r t-tim e w o r k fo r stu d e n ts. If th e s e fa c to r s do n ot w o rk out a s a s s u m e d , fe w e r young p e o p le m a y go on to c o lle g e and m o r e w ill e n te r the la b o r fo r c e on a f u ll-tim e b a s is at y o u n g er a g e s than th e s e la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s a n tic ip a te . On the o th er han d , fe w e r 1 4 -1 7 y e a r - o ld s , fo r w h om sc h o o l a tten d a n ce is c o m p u ls o r y to a la r g e e x te n t, w ill b e in the la b o r fo r c e w h ile s t ill in sc h o o l. L ab or fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e p r o je c te d both fo r p e r s o n s in sc h o o l and fo r th o se n ot in s c h o o l, fo r e a c h a g e group 1 4 -17, 1 8 -1 9 and 2 0 -2 4 . 28 T a b le 9. P e r c e n t o f to ta l p o p u la tio n e n r o lle d in s c h o o l, b y a g e and s e x , a c tu a l O cto b er 1 9 4 7 -5 6 and p r o je c te d 1 9 6 0 -7 5 Y ear F em a! Le 1 8 -1 9 2 0 -2 4 years years 1 4 -1 7 years M ale 1 8 -1 9 years 2 0 -2 4 years 1 4 -1 7 years 76. 8 80. 0 80. 5 8 2 .6 8 2. 2 83. 1 8 4. 8 86. 7 8 6. 5 8 6. 8 25. 1 29. 8 2 6 .4 3 1. 0 2 5. 1 29. 1 3 0. 0 33. 2 34. 0 3 5 .7 15. 8 15. 0 14. 0 12. 5 10. 4 11. 1 1 1 .4 12. 3 12. 7 1 5 .4 79. 1 81. 0 80. 0 81. 5 8 4 .4 84. 2 8 4 .4 8 4 .8 84. 6 86. 7 1 8 .4 2 0. 2 19. 8 24. 1 2 1. 1 2 1 .9 2 5 .7 2 5 .2 2 2. 3 2 7 .2 3 .9 3 .4 3 .7 4 .6 4. 3 4 .9 6 .3 6. 0 6. 1 6. 8 89. 0 90. 5 9 1 .5 9 2 .0 41. 46. 50. 5 2. 19. 0 22. 5 2 4 .7 26. 0 8 8. 5 §9. 5 9 0 .0 9 0 .0 3 0. 0 3 2. 2 3 4 .0 35. 0 8. 0 9 .0 9 .7 1 0 .0 A c tu a l 1947 .......................................... 1948 .......................................... 1949 .......................................... 1950 .......................................... 1 9 5 1 .......................................... 1952 .......................................... 1953 .......................................... 1954 ......................... ............... 1955 .......................................... 1956 .......................................... P r o je c te d 1960 1965 1970 1975 .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... 0 5 0 0 S o u r c e : 1 9 4 7 -5 6 b a s e d on d ata in the U . S . D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 2 0 , N o s . 4 0 , 5 2 , 5 4 , 66 and 74; 1 9 6 0 -7 5 p r o je c te d b y B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t is t ic s . The p r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e f ir s t on th e b a s is o f O cto b er d a ta , sin c e th a t is the o n ly m o n th fo r w h ich e s t im a t e s o f th e sc h o o l sta tu s o f w o r k e r s w e r e a v a ila b le fo r r e c e n t y e a r s . T he O cto b er r a te s w e r e m u ltip lie d b y the p r o je c te d p o p u la tio n o f stu d en ts and n o n stu d e n ts and the c o m p o n e n ts w e r e ad d ed to o b ta in the to ta l n u m b er in the la b o r f o r c e . (S ee c h a r t 4 .) F o r w o m e n n o n stu d e n ts , la b o r fo r c e sta tu s w a s p r o je c te d b y fu r th e r c o n s id e r a tio n o f m a r ita l sta tu s and p r e s e n c e o f young c h ild r e n . The c o m b in e d la b o r fo r c e to ta l fo r e a c h a g e in te r v a l w a s d iv id e d b y th e p o p u la tio n in e a c h a g e grou p to o b ta in th e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te . T h e se O cto b er r a te s w e r e tr a n s fo r m e d to an an n u al a v e r a g e b a s is b y ad d in g the p r o je c te d c h a n g e s in the w o r k e r r a te s fo r e a c h a g e grou p to the 1955 an n u al a v e r a g e w o r k e r r a te s fo r the sa m e a g e g ro u p . 29 C h a r t 4. School E n r o llm e n t a n d Labor F orce Statu s o f P op u la tion , 1 4 - 2 4 Y ears o f A g e , b y S e x , O c t o b e r 1 9 5 5 and P r o je c t e d 1 9 6 0 - 7 5 M illion s M illion s UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR b u r e a u op labor STATISTICS Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census ; Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 0 T h e s e y e a r s b y o l d a b o u t d e s p i t e l a r g e 5 m a S u c h o n i l l i o n s m a l l p . 4 9 ) . b e r a f f e c t t h e b e t w e e n n u m h a v e t h i s b i r t h s a n n u a l I 9 6 0 T a b l e b y t h e 1 0 . i n t h a t o r e t h a n l a b o r p l a c e b e r s a o f p o i n t , c h a n g e s 1 9 6 5 . m in P r o j e c t e d a y W t h e ( S e e b e in c o m p a c t y o u n g 1 0 . ) t h e o f y o u n g T h e f o r c e , s h o w m m h o w e d i a t e w o r k e r s f i r s t b i g a n n u a l o f t h e t h e i n c r e a s e a v e r a g e s t h e in a g e s . t h e ( d i s c u s s e d i n c r e a s e d p o s t w a r i n o f t h e s e a g e a r k e t a n d o c c u r b e c a u s e w o r k i n g l a b o r 1 4 - 2 4 1 9 6 5 w i l l p o p u l a t i o n i n t o t o a n d r i s e r a t e s , t h e t h e i m w o r k e r s 1 9 5 5 s h a r p i n g o n i n t e r e s t a n d b e r l a b o r T h i s p e r i o d o f I I n u m o f b e t w e e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i m a r b e r y e a r s . p e o p l e t a b l e t o t a l n u m i l l i o n m t h i s y o u n g o r l d t h e 4 f o r c e e n d o u s it W 1 0 d u r i n g t r e m d u r i n g a n d m f o l l o w i n g d e c l i n e w i l l A t o f in t a k i n g l a r g e a h e a d i n d i c a t e i n c r e a s e i n c r e a s e y e a r s n u m p r o j e c t i o n s w i l l p e r i o d w i l l y e a r s in t h e n u m b e r 1 9 6 0 - 6 5 ( T h o u s a n d s ) T o t a l l a b o r f o r c e A g e I 9 6 0 T o t a l , a n d 1 4 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 7 5 , 8 8 6 7 7 , 1 8 1 7 8 , 4 1 2 7 9 , 8 7 2 7 , 4 0 1 7 , 9 3 0 y e a r s . 7 3 , 5 5 0 . . . o v e r 7 4 , 7 5 2 6 , 2 1 5 6 , 6 3 7 6 , 8 7 3 7 , 1 7 y e a r s . . 3 , 1 8 0 3 , 2 9 7 3 , 4 3 0 3 , 7 9 1 4 , 0 9 1 3 , 9 9 7 1 8 - 1 9 y e a r s . . 3 , 0 3 5 3 , 3 4 0 3 , 4 4 3 3 , 3 2 3 3 , 3 , . . . 7 , 5 7 0 7 , 7 1 3 7 , 9 6 7 8 , 3 8 6 8 , 6 7 6 8 , 9 5 5 5 9 , 7 6 5 6 0 , 4 0 2 6 2 , 3 3 5 6 2 , 9 8 7 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s . 1 4 - 2 .0 - 2 4 2 5 y e a r s . 3 1 0 9 3 3 y e a r s a n d o v e r ....................... 6 1 , 0 4 6 N e t 1 9 5 9 - 6 0 T o t a l , a n d 1 4 1 9 1 4 - y e a r s . 1 7 1 9 6 1 - 6 2 6 8 1 c h a n g e 1 9 6 2 - 6 3 1 9 6 3 - 6 4 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . . . y e a r s . . 9 4 5 1 , 2 0 2 1 , 1 3 4 1 , 2 9 5 1 , 2 3 1 2 0 9 4 2 2 2 3 6 2 4 1 2 8 7 7 8 1 1 7 1 3 3 3 6 1 3 0 0 1 , 4 6 0 5 2 9 - 9 4 . . 1 3 1 3 0 5 1 0 3 - 1 2 0 1 3 6 2 3 . . . 7 8 1 4 3 2 5 4 4 1 9 2 9 0 2 7 9 o v e r ....................... 6 5 8 6 3 7 6 4 4 6 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 2 1 8 - 1 9 2 0 - 2 4 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 6 1 , y e a r s o v e r ................................. 1 4 - 2 5 1 1 4 y e a r s y e a r s . - y e a r s a n d S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f L a b o r , B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s . 3 1 o f 1 8 - a n d T w o 1 9 - y e a r - o l d y e a r s c h a n g e s e v e n l a t e r r e f l e c t l a r g e r a b o u t t h e w o r k e r s s i z e t h e e a r l y i n c r e a s e i n a s h a r p r i s e a n d t h e 1 8 - 1 9 y e a r - o l d s t h a t w o r k e r r a t e s b y f o r r a t e s y o u n g c o n d i t i o n s p o p u l a t i o n w e l l b e w i l l e n t e r a o m W f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n e a c h ( t a b l e c h i l d r e n . m e d i a t e l y o f 1 4 - 1 7 m b y o o t h l y , o v e a b e r o r l d W i n t h i s t w o 1 1 . g r o u p r a t e s a n d r a t e L a b o r i s o f a d u l t d e p e n d i n g w h e t h e r h i g h e s t f o r c e p o p u l a t i o n , b y t h e f o r w o m u p o n m s i n g l e a r i t a l e n , w i d e w h e t h e r a r r i e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n m w o m w o m w i l l i n t h e y 1 6 - 1 9 t h a t m i n f l u e n c e d a y t h e v e r y h o w e v e r , e n a n d f o r a n d a g e , w o m h a v e t h e y M a r e e n i n a r c h f o r y e a r s a n d o v e r • • 3 4 . 8 4 6 . 8 l a b o r o r m t h e o t h e r s o f c i v i l i a n 1 9 5 7 a r r i e d , h u s b a n S i n g l e i n s i n g l e p r e s c h o o l - a g e l o w e s t w o m e x i s t e n d p r e s e n t 2 9 . 6 O t h e r m a r i t a l s t a t u s 4 0 . 4 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s 2 6 . 6 2 6 . 8 2 4 . 2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s .............................................. 4 4 . 9 7 4 . 6 3 0 . 2 5 3 . 1 2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ............................ .......................... 3 4 . 7 9 . 5 2 7 . 6 2 . 1 ................................ .... 6 0 1 6 9 . 4 3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s .................................................. 4 2 . 3 8 1 . 9 3 5 . 7 4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s .................................................. • 4 5 . 4 7 8 . 0 3 7 . 2 6 6 . 4 5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3 4 . 6 6 6 . 7 2 4 . 6 4 7 . 1 1 . 2 4 . 6 5 y e a r s a n d S o u r c e : C u r r e n t e y e a r - o l d s . v a r i a t i o n s t h e M 1 4 a s s u m w o r k e r w h e n t h e r e T h e b r i n g 1 9 6 2 - 6 3 a r e h a p p e n s , e n r a t e s s t a t u s T o t a l A g e T o t a l , 1 9 6 1 . T h e s e n e c e s s i t y 1 9 6 2 - 6 3 , a s a n d b i r t h s . I I r e a l i z e d t h o u s a n d , I f o r i s o f b e c a u s e p l e , h u n d r e d r a t e s . it o f a r o r k e r s p r o j e c t i o n s e x a m y e a r w i 9 6 0 s h a r p l y . n u m W y e a r - o l d e r r a t i c a l l y w o r k e r w i t h i n t h e a l t h o u g h F o r s e v e r a l t h e i r i n b e t w e e n i n c r e a s e a f t e r T h e s e a r k e t . a r k e t a g e l l ) T h e T a b l e b e r o f t e n o c c u r w i l l i n c r e a s e s m 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . s m w i l l g r o u p e n W i t h i n a r r i e d i n m e i m c h a n g e r i s e d r o p l a b o r A d u l t m n u m i n l a b o r w i l l 2 0 - 2 4 w a r t i m t h e w i l l t h e 1 4 - 1 7 t h e i n ( 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 ) t h e b i r t h s p e r s o n s o f s h a r p o f o v e r U . P o p u l a t i o n S . . ........................ D e p a r t m R e p o r t s , e n t 2 o f S e r i e s C o m m P - 5 0 , 5 e r c e , N o . 6 . B u r e a u 7 6 . o f 3 t h e 8 1 2 . 3 C e n s u s , 3 2 y o u n g c h i l d r e n . b e a r i n g w e r e o n t a k e n f o r c e . 1 5 m t h e y o u n g w a s i n t o F o r a r i t a l a n d T h e r e w o m n e n o r a v a i l a b l e i n e , o f o n i s n o w e r e o f 4 5 h a v e a n o f w o m e n , o f w o m e n f o r c e w a s b e r l a b o r a n d l o n g e r W b e t w e e n w o m e n o f L a b o r o m e n t h e o v e r , i m p o r t a n t t h e s e i n f a c t o r s t h e l a b o r p r o j e c t e d w h e r e s i g n i f i c a n t , a r r i e d t h e s e 5 t h e o n l y b y b o t h i n c i d e n c e m a r i t a l o f s t a t u s w i t h o f 2 0 w o m e n t h e t e x t o f ( o t h e r m a n d w i t h o f i n p r e p a r i n g a s t a t u s C u r r e n t t h i s 5 f e m a n d w o m t r a i n i n g , a n ’ s d a t a o f a l e C e n s u s B u r e a u a n d P - 2 0 , w o m c h o i c e a r e o f n o t e n t o i n F a m N o . y e a r s p o p u l a t i o n B u r e a u . p r o j e c t 6 9 . 1 6 w e r e b y a g e T h e d e v e l o p i n g i l i e s , d a t a I 9 6 0 t o f o r 1 9 7 5 , P r o j e c t i o n s d e v e l o p e d F o r in e a c h o f t h e w o m a g e y e a r s f o r c e o f r a n g e a g e , r a t e s 5 - y e a r m b y i n t o a n d m a g e p e r i o d a r r i a g e i n t h e a n d i n o f t o c h i l d r e n b y 5 - y e a r l a b o r 3 o f t h e t h e a r r i e d 1 9 7 5 a g e f o r c e g r o u p w e r e m a d e g r o u p s - - s i n g l e , g r o u p s w i t h w a n d e r e n o c h i l d r e n d e v e l o p e d a p p l i e d a n d f a m P o p u l a t i o n t h a t s h o u l d w a s i l i e s f o r t o w e r e b e m y e a r s o f S e r i e s i n t w o i s l a b o r f o r U n i v e r i s t y C o u n c i l . a g e g r o u p t o F i r s t , p r e s e n t ) d i v o r c e d c l a s s i f i e d a n d i n t o a g e . b y p r o j e c t i o n s t h e N o . B u r e a u 9 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f o f t h e t h e N o t h i n g u s e d i s a s w a y s : h u s b a n d w i d o w e d , w h i c h P - 2 0 , s t a t u s b i a e a c h o n L i f e ( r e f e r r e d r e v i s e d r e l e a s e d r e v i s e d . i n a r r i e d , i n c l u d e s a r i t a l ( C o l u m l a t t e r m c h i l d r e n o r k i n g a n p o w e r c l a s s i f i e d a s p u b l i s h e d , R e p o r t s , t h e t h e p o p u l a t i o n 5 M o f W p o p u l a t i o n a n d t o o f a n p o w e r , N a t i o n a l a l e w h i c h a r r i e d p r e s e n c e T a b l e s f u r t h e r u n d e r b u l l e t i n o m ( r e f e r r e d s t a t u s ) e v e r - m W t h e f e m i s t h e i n a r r i e d , r e p o r t ) a r i t a l t h e t h e e v e r - m a n d d e t a i l s t a f f h u s b a n d s i n d i c a t e s b u l l e t i n e n p r o j e c t i o n s t h i s 1 2 0 4 ) , b y t h i s t h i s h o u s e h o l d s r e l e a s e t h e C e n s u s p u r p o s e , w i t h o u t b e f o r e 5 o f a n d t h e i r t h o s e n e w f o r c e p r o j e c t e d f r o m 4 4 , d i s c u s s e d t h i s s e c o n d l y , C e n s u s e d u c a t i o n a f f e c t g r o u p s . B u l l . s e p a r a t e d ; 1 6J u s t t h e u n d e r i n e a c h e f f e c t s s i n g l e w i t h o t h e r f o r a r e sF o r i n o f A g e . L a b o r p r e p a r e d i n t o l i v i n g o f u n d e r a g e . ( B L S 1 b e r a s S u f f i c i e n t * p a s t l a b o r S e r i e s t h r o u g h p o p u l a t i o n 1 9 5 0 c l a s s i f i e d a l l e . H o u s e h o l d s c h i l d r e n c h i l d r e n 1 9 5 7 ) , a r r i e d h o m t h e t h e o f p o p u l a t i o n 4T h e o f e n , t h o s e t o b y Y e a r s o f t h e y e a r s 1 o m s u c h w h i c h S t a t i s t i c s . 2 0 - 4 4 c o r r e s p o n d i n g P r e s s , t h e f o r m R e p o r t s , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s a c t i v i t y f a c t o r s o c c u p a t i o n , s t a t u s b e r w i t h a g e s d i s t r i b u t i n g u n d e r a r i t a l N u m P o p u l a t i o n B u r e a u o t h e r o u t s i d e p r e p a r e d t h e o f b e r c o u r s e , u n p u b l i s h e d n u m t h e e s t a t u s n u m t h e a g e s h u s b a n d * s m i n C u r r e n t n u m h o m t h e 2 0 - 4 4 , F o r c h i l d p a r t i c i p a t i o n p r o j e c t i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p t h e a v a i l a b l e P r o j e c t i o n s a n d a n d f o r c e a g e s w o r k i n g t h e i r p r o j e c t i o n s m a r i t a l t r e n d s . D a t a W i n in t h e a n d n o t o n f u t u r e w e r e m m l a b o r s t a t u s . a r e , i n c o m o r k i n g b y o f a c c o u n t c h i l d c h i l d r e i l y t h e B e c a u s e c o n s i d e r e d . f a m w 1 4 e x t e n t in i n f o r c e 3 3 T h e b y p r o j e c t i o n s p r e s e n c e o r d e r f o r m t o h a v e 3 0 o n b e e n o f a l l p r o p o r t i o n w o m e n i n 1 9 4 0 a m o n g w o m i n c r e a s e s t h a t t h e t h a t a i f e n h a v e in d o e s t h e t h e i r f a m i l i e s f o r i f e t h e s a m i l y f o r m s i z e a t n u m n o t c h a n g e w o u l d 3 n o t I t f a m i l y h o m m o r b e u n d e r h o w 5 a g e f u t u r e b i r t h s 17 A n b e m t h e i r n u m n o t t a k e t h e i m i n t o p l i e d e c t i o n s w o m e n 1 9 5 4 . i m T h i s a t i o n , t h e s e t h e i l y f e w e r m o r e o f f r o m w o m n u m b e h a v e s t a n c e s . n u m b e r a t f o r f o r b e c o m h a n d , s p e e d u p H o w e v e r , c h i l d r e n a s m c h i l d o f y o u n g w o r k . 1 a t a n d p l e t e d o t h e r h a v e n o t l e a s t r a t h e r a n d c o m f u r t h e r i s , b u t t h e r e f o r e s t i l l a i n l y a v a i l a b l e t h e y o u n g T h a t w i t h b e O n a v a i l a b l e w o u l d m a l l i n d i c a t i n g h a v e w o u l d w o u l d s m c o n t i n u e s w i l l w i t h o u t t h i r t i e s n o t a t i o n a g e . p e r c e n t c h i l d r e n , w i l l b e r s c h o o l o n l y 3 e n e n 1 4 1 9 5 4 , o c c u r r e d g r e a t l y o r 1 9 4 0 , b y h a v e f o r m w o m a c h i e v e d w h o t h e r e f o r e , w o m 1 9 6 0 , a t e w o m o f t h e i n f o r t h e i g n o r e s t h e y d i d n u m a g e t h e w e r e b e r p l e t e d y e a r b e a r f a c t o f c h i l d r e n m o f a g e a s u n d e r w o u l d a n y w o u l d u n d e r 5 . f r o m i l y . t o t h a t e n 3 5 - 3 9 e n w o m w h o o l d w e r e t h e 5 i n 3 5 - 3 9 i n a n t h e e 1 9 7 0 o f t o t h e s a m e a g e i l y o f a g e t h e c o u l d a t e w o m C e n s u s w h e n o f o f w o u l d e n , i n h a v e t h e y o f t h e h a d f a m o r p r o j p r o p o r t i o n g r o u p w o u l d t h e a t e s h o w e v e r , t h e b y o f y e a r s e s t i m a c c e l e r a t e d 1 9 5 4 u n d e r a n d 1 5 - 4 4 e t h o d , b o r n o f p r o j e c t i n g e s t i m e n p l e , r a t e f o r p r o j e c t i o n s m a k i n g m s a m b e c a u s e f a m y e a r s w o m f o r e x a m 1 9 7 5 d i d f o r o f t o a l r e a d y a s y e a r s o f T h i s F o r 1 9 7 0 5 t h e b a s i s c h i l d r e n C e n s u s 5 , b a s i s a e t h o d s i z e b y a b o u t a s h a v e m t h e g r o u p a c h i l d r e n f a m A u n d e r f r b m u l t i p l i e d u s e d i l y w o u l d u l t i m a t e c h i l d r e n 2 0 - 2 4 w o m t h e 5 - y e a r b e g r o u p p t i o n s f a m 1 9 7 5 . 17 p e r i o d c h i l d r e n n u m e a c h t h e b e r 5 - y e a r a s s u m p l e t e d a n d a c c o u n t t h e n c o m m a k e c o m e a c h 1 9 7 0 , e a c h w i t h w i l l o f b i r t h r a t e s , c o u l d t h e 3 5 - 3 9 i n i n t o f u t u r e e n o f t h a t e n t a k e s t o s i z e 1 9 6 5 , p r o j e c t e d t h a n b u t f a m 2 , e n i n a n d i n c r e a s e d 1 , I n w o m p r o p o r t i o n i n c r e a s i n g h a v i n g t h e i r c i r c u m c h i l d r e n t h e c a t e g o r i e s , n o t r e a c h 3 0 2 l e a s t i l a r l y , i l y p l e , b i r t h i s w o u l d e x a m i n c r e a s e s g r e a t e r i s i n u n d e r a n y a c c o u n t w h e n 2 0 - 2 4 . e n i l y e n a v e r a g e e a c h s i z e p l y a g e d c h i l d r e n f o r m o f f a m a n d f i g u r e s b e r a F o r o r d e r a n d a n d EL, a g e in d i f f e r e n t . p o p u l a t i o n T h e s e t h e w o m w h i c h f o r i d - p e r i o d a g e . o f c h i l d r e n i n e s t i m o b t a i n e d a p p l y i n g m 3 0 a r o f a d e f a m b a b i e s ; g r e a t l y , o r e W m e n . t h i r d e a r l i e r c h i l d r e n w o m n e c e s s a r y , a t i o n m t h e r e f o r e u c h e s t i m a t i n g o f a n d o f v e r y w a s y e a r s e b e r y o u n g f o r m a g e o r e m b u t o f w o m o r a r e t o w a r d o r l d y e a r s w e r e t h e s e W c h i l d r e n s h a r p i l i e s e n a t S i m o r e h i g h e r f a m w o m t h e i r a v e r a g e t o t a l 2 a s m o f 2 0 - 4 4 a g e p a t t e r n s o f a g e s . h a d s e c o n d , i n c r e a s e a b o u t e n o f c h a n g i n g y o u n g e r w o m o r t h e o f a g e s a t i o n , c h i l d r e n h a v e b y w o r k t h e i n t r e n d n o t y o u n g e r a v a i l a b l e f a m t h e a t f i r s t , p o p u l a t i o n y e a r s b e g i n n i n g T h e s e l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n s i z e i l y w o r k t h e i r w i t h I f t h e 3 5 p a r t i c i p a t i o n p e r c e n t . 1 9 5 4 . o c c u r r e d a g e s . 5 2 w i t h i n h a v i n g g r e a t e r f a m g r o u p p e r c e n t a l e a p p a r e n t l y s i n c e t o f e m u n d e r f o r c e y e a r - o l d r i s e n p r o p o r t i o n y o u n g e r o f c h i l d r e n 2 5 - 2 9 a g e 2 7 a r r i e d c h i l d r e n l a b o r t h e i r h a d t h i s t o m o f e f f e c t s f u t u r e b e a r i n g p e r c e n t t h e p a r t i c u l a r l y t h i s i n t h e t h e y e a r s , o f a b s e n c e a s s e s s a t i o n r e c e n t a n d y e a r m i l y w e r e o r e e 3 4 e a r l i e r P . a g e s K . W p r e p a r e d b o r n t o T h e a t a g e p r o j e c t e d T h e m c h i l d r e n o f i s T h e e v e r b o r n f r o m t o a v a i l a b l e a g e g r o u p h a d o r o r i t s o r e t o a r e w e r e P . L i m m t h e y i n t o K . w a s W m A l t h o u g h t h i s f i g u r e t h e o f p e r c e n t , u s e d b y 7 3 W 19 w h i l e f o r 2 c o m a y b e in t h e w i t h o r t h a t 1 9 6 0 w i l l t o t h e a g e b i r t h s b e 1 9 7 5 . C e n s u s 5 . a n d t h e a b s e n c e o n o r m o r e , f r o m 3 b e o f b o r n t h e n u m t h e b e r s w o m o r m e n y o u n g o f I n f o r m c h i l d r e n . e a c h 4 o r e n a t i o n in e a c h F r o m a g e m t h e 5 - c h i l d r e n B u r e a u ’ s w o m o f a n d e a c h o f 1 9 5 7 . 2 0 i n o r e , c h a r t e d in b e r C e n s u s a n d p r o p o r t i o n s n u m o f w e r e o n 1 9 5 4 , t h e s p e c i f i e d w i l l d a t a 1 9 5 2 , p r o p o r t i o n a n d 5 0 p l e t e d t o o i t s , d a t a f a m h i g h , C e n s u s i t o f g r o u p o r e , a n d t r e n d s i n o f t h i s , w h o 5 o r w e r e S e r i e s w h o o r 3 r e p r e s e n t s F e r t i l i t y , e s t i m u p o n i n I I I w i l l a 1 9 5 4 , w i l l a t b e l o w , o f t h e s e l i m p e r i t s w o m a n . o r d e r t o r e a c h p r o j e c t i o n . r e a c h a l m h a v e w h i c h a t e s c h i l d r e n c h i l d r e n r e s p e c t i v e l y , E a c h 2 w h o a g e s d e s c r i b e d t h e 3 . e n t h e n e c e s s a r y , e n 2 , a r e u p o n d e c i d i n g s i z e w o m w o m o f w h i c h a n d w a s 1 , p e r c e n t , C o h o r t i l y o f m a d e B u r e a u ’ s w i t h 5 ). t h e w e r e o s t e n d s e t a t e x a c t l y s u b s t a n t i a l ( P r i n c e t o n o f t h e i r 8 6 t h o s e i n c r e a s e o v e r U n i v e r s i t y J e r s e y . s e l e c t i o n d a t a l i m a t e s c o n s i d e r a t i o n 4 5 - 4 9 ) a n d p r o p o r t i o n s e s t i m T h e p r o p o r t i o n s ( c h a r t f o r f o r y e a r s o f S e r i e s d e c e n n i a l w e r e e s t i m a t e p u b l i s h e d S t a t e s , I n s t i t u t e 2 I b i d . o f t h a t o n d e r i v e d h i s t o r i c a l a N e w T h i s U n i t e d b a b i e s p r o j e c t e d o f ( a g e d o t h e r f e r t i l i t y S t a t i s t i c a l b a b i e s b y S t a t i s t i c s III y e a r s b a s e d u p o n a r e d i s c u s s e d w e r e b a s e d s a m p l e o n o n d a t a p p . t h e f r o m 1 2 - 1 4 . d e c e n n i a l t h e C e n s u s e s , C u r r e n t S u r v e y s . 21 c o m p l e t e d o f w e r e t h e m . u p o n t h e 0 T h e d a t a a t e s L a b o r f r o m u n d e r p r e s e n c e b a s e d 1 9 5 0 , t o 2 t h e h e l p t o n , R e a s o n s P o p u l a t i o n t h e o f P r i n c e t o n , 2 b y o f c o n s i s t e n t e s t i m p e r i o d s t h e f u r t h e r p e r c e n t , W w h i c h A m p e r i o d K . b e r c h i l d r e n h a v e h e l p t o n 2 2 1 8 P . P r e s s ) , i t s b e r d e v e l o p e d o f p e r i o d p o p u l a t i o n t h e w e r e t h e s e o n p o p u l a t i o n l i m t h e g r o u p 1 9 4 0 , b i r t h o r e t o p t i o n T h e n u m 5 - y e a r r e a s o n a b l y o f p r o p o r t i o n s e s s e n t i a l l y c h i l d b e a r i n g n u m 1 9 7 5 o f s e t o r a s s u m l e v e l t h e e a c h b e e n B u r e a u f u t u r e . h e l p t o n . 21 t h e i s a g e c h i l d r e n , e x p e c t e d b a s e d t h e t o T h e s e w e r e 5 o f c o m p u t e t h e s h o w in h a s t h e b e l o w : 1 9 1 0 , o r e e n c h i l d r e n e t h o d s , p r e p a r i n g e a c h g i v e n t o m i n o t h e r , h a d m w h i c h w o m b i r t h s i n e a c h c h i l d r e n . p r o j e c t e d 1 f o r w h o 1 m f o r p o s s i b l e o r e e n 1 9 5 5 e a c h s t u d i e s w a s m o f t h e i r i l a r p r o j e c t i o n s u s e d w o m b e a r s i m b i r t h s o f b e r I I I 1 9 p r o j e c t i o n s p e r i o d f e r t i l i t y o f d e s c r i b e d y e -a r h a d n u m e t h o d e n U s i n g g r o u p S e r i e s d i s t r i b u t i o n w a s w o m 18 p r o j e c t i o n s e a c h B u r e a u ’ s it w h i c h h e l p t o n . a p a p e r a t i s i n f r o m A N e w p r e s e n t e d P e t r o p o l i s , P . K . L o o k a t t h e B r a z i l . W a t h e l p t o n ’ s t h e 2 9 t h m e d i u m P o s t w a r S e s s i o n o f B a b y t h e e s t i m a t e s B o o m in o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l -35Chart 5. P r o j e c t e d P r o p o r t i o n o f W o m e n in E a c h A g e G roup W it h S p e c i f i e d N u m b e r o f C h i ld r e n Percent Percent AGE GROUP Sources.U.S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics 36 th e p r e s e n t p r o p o r tio n . T he g r e a t e s t r e la tiv e in c r e a s e w a s a llo w e d in the p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en w ith 4 o r m o r e and 5 o r m o r e c h ild r e n . T he p r o p o r tio n w ith 4 o r m o r e c h ild r e n w a s r a is e d fr o m 22 p e r c e n t in 1954 to 35 p e r c e n t in 1 9 75. S im ila r ly * the p r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en w h o w ill h a v e 5 o r m o r e c h ild r e n w a s r a is e d fr o m ab ou t 13 p e r c e n t to 25 p e r c e n t. S in ce fo u rth and h ig h e r o r d e r b ir th r a te s h a v e b e e n in c r e a s in g o n ly s lig h tly in r e c e n t y e a r s tne p r o je c te d le v e ls fo r th e s e r a te s m a y b e to o h ig h . T he p r o je c te d n u m b er o f b ir th s o c c u r r in g to e a c h 5 -y e a r a g e grou p in e a c h 5 - y e a r p e r io d fr o m 1955 to 1975 w e r e co m p u ted fr o m th e s e d ata in th e fo llo w in g m a n n er: T he p r o p o r tio n o f w o m e n in a g iv e n a g e grou p h a v in g a f ir s t c h ild d u rin g a g iv e n 5 -y e a r p e r io d w a s o b ta in ed a s the d iffe r e n c e b e tw e e n th e p r o p o r tio n h a v in g 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n a t th e b eg in n in g o f the p e r io d and the p r o p o r tio n h a v in g 1 or m o r e c h ild r e n a t the b e g in n in g o f the n e x t p e r io d w h en th e y w e r e 5 y e a r s o ld e r . T h is d iffe r e n c e w a s m u ltip lie d b y th e n u m b er o f w o m en in the a g e g rou p a t the b eg in n in g o f th e n e x t p e r io d toi o b ta in the n u m b er o f f ir s t b ir th s th at h ad o c c u r r e d to th e s e w o m en d u rin g th e p r e v io u s 5 y e a r s . F o r ex a m p le* an e s tim a te d 54. 3 p e r c e n t o f a ll 2 0 -2 4 y e a r - o ld w o m en h ad 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n in 1955. It i s a s s u m e d th at 7 7 . 2 p e r c e n t o f th e s e w o m e n w ill h a v e h ad 1 or m o r e c h ild r e n b y i9 6 0 w h en th e y w ou ld be 2 5 -2 9 y e a r s o f a g e . T he a d d itio n a l 2 2 . 9 p e r c e n t (? 7 . 2 p e r c e n t l e s s 5 4 . 3 p e r c e n t) w ill h a v e b o rn e f ir s t c h ild r e n d u rin g the 5 y e a r in te r v a l. T h is p ro p o rtio n * m u ltip lie d b y th e 2 5 -2 9 y e a r -o ld fe m a le p o p u la tio n in I 9 6 0 , g iv e s the n u m b er o f f i r s t b a b ie s th a t w ill b e b o rn to th e s e w o m en in th e 5y e a r p e r io d ir o m 1955 to i9 6 0 . S econ d * third* fourth* and fifth and h ig h e r o r d e r b ir th s w e r e e s tim a te d in th e sa m e m a n n e r b y th e u s e o f the p r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n s o f w o m en in e a c h a g e grou p w ith 2 o r m o r e , 3 or m o r e , 4 o r m o r e , and 5 o r m o r e c h ild r e n . T he n u m b er o f b a b ie s b o r n in e a c h 5 -y e a r p e r io d b e tw e e n 1955 and 1975* i s e q u a l to th e n u m b er o f c h ild r e n u n d er 5 a t th e b eg in in n g o f the n e x t 5 -y e a r p e r io d e x c e p t fo r th e 2 o r 3 p e r c e n t w ho d ie b e tw e e n the tim e o f th e ir b ir th and th e en d o f the 5 -y e a r p e r io d . T he n u m b er o f w o m e n w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5* w h ich is n e e d e d fo r the la b o r fo r c e p r o j e c t io n s ,w ill, o f c o u r s e , be sm e llie r th an the to ta l n u m b er o f c h ild r e n u n d er 5 sin c e m a n y w o m en h a v e m o r e than 1 c h ild u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e . T h e r e fo r e , th e e s t im a t e s o f th e n u m b er o f c h ild r e n u n d er 5, b y a g e o f m o th e r s , w e r e d is tr ib u te d in to f a m ilie s h a v in g 1 o n ly , 2 o n ly , and 3 o r m o r e c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e a s sh ow n b y 1940 and 1950 C e n su s d a ta . T he n u m b er o f m o th e r s w a s eq u a l to the n u m b er o f f a m ilie s . T h is m eth o d c o u ld n ot b e u s e d fo r w o m en u n d er a g e 30 b e c a u s e o f r e c e n t c h a n g e s in fa m ily fo r m a tio n in th e young a g e s . F o r w o m e n u n d er 3 0 , th e r e fo r e , th e e s tim a te d n u m b er w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s w a s b a s e d upon the p r o p o r tio n w ith 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n . C e n su s d ata fo r 1950 and 1952 sh o w ed th at ab ou t 95 p e r c e n t o f a ll m o th e r s a g ed 1 5 -1 9 ( i . e . , th o se w ith 1 o r m o r e c h ild r e n ) h a d c h ild r e n u n d er 5; fo r w o m en 2 0 -2 4 and 2 5 -2 9 37 th e r a tio s w e r e ab ou t 92 p e r c e n t and 78 p e r c e n t, r e s p e c t iv e ly . T h e se r a tio s w e r e a p p lie d to the p r o p o r tio n o f a ll w o m en in e a c h o f th e s e a g e g r o u p s u n d er 30 h a v in g 1 or m o r e c h ild r e n a s of 1 9 6 0 , 1 9 6 5 , e t c . , to o b tain the p r o p o r tio n h a v in g c h ild r e n u n d er 5. T h e se n ew p r o p o r tio n s w e r e th en a p p lie d to the p r o je c te d fe m a le p o p u la tio n in e a c h a g e grou p b e tw e e n 15 and 29 to fu r n ish the n u m b er o f w o m en w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5. T he n u m b er o f m a r r ie d w o m en w ith no c h ild r e n u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e w a s o b ta in ed b y su b tr a c tin g the e s tim a te d n u m b er w ith c h ild r e n u n d er 5 fr o m a ll m a r r ie d w o m en in e a c h a g e gro u p in c lu d in g th o se w id o w e d , s e p a r a te d , and d iv o r c e d . A s in d ic a te d on p a g e 3 2, the p r o je c te d n u m b e r s in e a c h m a r ita l sta tu s w e r e a v a ila b le fr o m u n p u b lish ed C e n su s B u r e a u d a ta . T he la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith and w ith o u t c h ild r e n u n d er 5 w e r e p r o je c te d fo r e a c h a g e jgroup on the b a s is o f d ata a v a ila b le fo r 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 4 8 , 1 9 5 1 , 1 9 5 2 , and 1 9 55. (T he r a te s fo r 1951 and 1955 r e la te d to w o m en b y p r e s e n c e o f c h ild r e n u n d er 6 r a th e r than u n d er 5 y e a r s o f a g e .) B e tw e e n 1940 and 1 9 4 8 , the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r w o m en w ith young c h ild r e n in c r e a s e d s u b s ta n tia lly in e a c h a g e g ro u p . F o r e x a m p le , the r a te fo r th e s e w o m en 2 0 -2 4 y e a r s o f age r o s e fr o m 6. 8 p e r c e n t to 11. 9 p e r c e n t and fo r th o se 2 5 -3 4 , fr o m 6. 5 p e r c e n t to 1 3 .0 p e r c e n t. B e tw e e n 1948 and 1 9 5 6 , the p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s co n tin u ed to in c r e a s e m o d e r a te ly fo r the 1 4 -1 9 and 2 0 -2 4 y e a r g r o u p s o f w o m en w ith you n g c h ild r e n but n ot so m u ch fo r th o se in the 2 5 -3 4 and 3 5 -4 4 a g e g r o u p s. T he r a t e s fo r the s e v e r a l a ge g r o u p s b y p r e s e n c e o f c h ild r e n w e r e c h a r te d and th e tr e n d s e x tr a p o la te d . F o r w o m en 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s o ld the ra te r o s e g r a d u a lly to 15 p e r c e n t in 1975; fo r th o se 2 0 -2 4 , to 25 p e r c e n t; fo r 2 5 -3 4 y e a r - o ld s to 1 7 .0 p e r c e n t; and th e ra te fo r th o se a g e d 3 5 -4 4 to 20 p e r c e n t. (T he r a te fo r the 2 0 -2 4 y e a r - o ld s n ot o n ly r o s e m o r e sh a r p ly in r e c e n t y e a r s but w a s a t or ab ove the r a t e s fo r the o th er a g e s in 1 9 4 0 , 19 5 2 , and 1 9 5 5 .) The la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith no young c h ild r e n in c r e a s e d v e r y sh a r p ly fr o m 1940 to 1 9 48. F o r e x a m p le , it r o s e fr o m 3 1. 9 p e r c e n t to 52. 8 p e r c e n t fo r 2 0 -2 4 y e a r -o ld w o m e n , fr o m 2 8 . 3 p e r c e n t to 4 6 . 9 p e r c e n t fo r the 2 5 -3 4 g ro u p . M uch m o r e m o d e s t in c r e a s e s o c c u r r e d b e tw e e n 1948 and 1 9 55. In e x tr a p o la tin g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith no young c h ild r e n , the r a te fo r the 1 4 -1 9 y e a r -o ld g rou p r o s e to 38 p e r c e n t b y 1975; fo r th o se 2 0 -2 4 to 67 p e r c e n t; fo r th o se 2 5 -3 4 to 52 p e r c e n t; and fo r th o se 3 5 -4 4 to 4 9 p e r c e n t. F o r sin g le w o m en in a g e s 2 5 -3 4 and 3 5 -4 4 the r a te w a s h e ld c o n sta n t a t 83 and a t 80 p e r c e n t, r e s p e c t iv e ly , a p p r o x im a te ly the r e c e n t le v e l. F o r a g e s 1 4 -1 9 and 2 0 -2 4 , se p a r a te r a t e s w e r e e s tim a te d fo r th o se in sc h o o l and th o se n ot in s c h o o l, on the b a s is o f a v a ila b le in fo r m a tio n . F o r the s in g le g ir ls 1 4 -1 9 n ot in s c h o o l, the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te w a s h e ld a t 67 p e r c e n t and fo r th o se 2 0 -2 4 n ot in s c h o o l, the r a te w a s h e ld a t 80 p e r c e n t. The p r o je c te d r a te s fo r the grou p in sc h o o l in th e s e a g e s a r e d is c u s s e d on p p . 2 6 -3 1 . 38 A ll o f th e s e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e on an A p r il b a s is . T he r a te s w e r e m u ltip lie d b y the p o p u la tio n in e a c h m a r ita l and c h ild sta tu s g ro u p , and th e r e s u ltin g la b o r fo r c e fo r e a c h a g e w a s to ta le d . The o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fo r e a c h a g e g rou p ( s t ill on an A p r il b a s is ) w a s d e r iv e d b y d iv id in g the la b o r fo r c e b y the p o p u la tio n . T o c o n v e r t to an an n u al a v e r a g e b a s is , the a m o u n t o f ch a n g e sh ow n b y the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fr o m A p r il 1955 to A p r il I9 6 0 and e a c h su c c e e d in g 5 -y e a r p e r io d w a s a d d ed to the 1 9 5 5 a n n u a l a v e r a g e r a te . T he la b o r fo r c e fo r e a c h a g e grou p on an a n n u a l a v e r a g e b a s is w a s o b ta in ed b y m u ltip ly in g the an n u al a v e r a g e la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n t'ate b y the p o p u la tio n . W om en 45 Y e a r s and O v e r . In a g e s 45 and o v e r , th e n u m b er o f m a r r ie d w o m en h a v in g you n g c h ild r e n a t h o m e i s q u ite s m a ll and the p r e s e n c e o f c h ild r e n i s no lo n g e r a sig n ific a n t fa c to r in the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te . T he im p o r ta n t d e m o g r a p h ic fa c to r a s s o c ia t e d w ith la b o r fo r c e sta tu s in th is a g e grou p is the in c id e n c e o f w id o w h o o d , s e p a r a tio n , o r d iv o r c e . T he la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r w o m en w ho a r e w id o w e d , d iv o r c e d , o r se p a r a te d a r e c o n s id e r a b ly h ig h e r than fo r m a r r ie d w o m e n w ith h u sb a n d p r e s e n t. M o r e o v e r , the o c c u r r e n c e o f w id o w h o o d in c r e a s e s c o n s id e r a b ly in a g e s o v e r 4 5 . F o r th is r e a s o n , th e n u m b e r s o f w o m e n 4 5 and o v e r in the la b o r fo r c e w e r e e s tim a te d b y se p a r a te m a r ita l sta tu s g r o u p s, i. e . , sin g le ; m a r r ie d w ith h u sb an d p r e s e n t; and " o th er m a r ita l sta tu s " , w h ich in c lu d e s w id o w e d , d iv o r c e d , and s e p a r a te d . The m a r ita l sta tu s d istr ib u tio n o f the p r o je c te d p o p u la tio n o f w o m e n in e a c h a g e g rou p w a s a ls o a v a ila b le fr o m C e n su s B u r e a u u n p u b lish ed m a t e r ia ls . L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s fo r th e s e c la s s if ic a t io n s in e a c h a g e grou p w e r e p r o je c te d fo r the 5 - y e a r p e r io d s fr o m 1960 to 1975 on th e b a s is o f r a te s a v a ila b le fo r 1 9 4 0 , 1 9 4 4 , and e a c h y e a r s in c e 1 9 4 7 . 23 T he r a te s fo r s in g le w o m en (w ho c o m p r is e l e s s th an 10 p e r c e n t o f th e p o p u la tio n in the a g e g r o u p s 4 5 and o v e r ) w e r e q u ite h ig h up to a g e 65 and th e y h a v e sh ow n lit t le ch a n g e in r e c e n t y e a r s . T h e r e fo r e , the r a te fo r the 4 5 -6 4 y e a r g rou p w a s h e ld c o n sta n t a t ab ou t 75 p e r c e n t; and fo r 65 and o v e r it w a s h e ld a t 25 p e r c e n t. F o r the grou p o f w o m en w ho a r e m a r r ie d w ith h u sb a n d p r e s e n t; and fo r the w id o w e d , d iv o r c e d , and se p a r a te d ; the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s a d v a n c e d c o n s id e r a b ly sin c e 1 9 40. C on tin u ed in c r e a s e s w e r e th e r e fo r e p r o je c te d fo r th e s e w o r k e r r a t e s . F o r e x a m p le , th e r a te fo r m a r r ie d w o m en w ith h u sb a n d p r e s e n t , a g e d 4 5 -6 4 w a s in c r e a s e d fr o m 29 p e r c e n t in A p r il 1955 to 4 4 p e r c e n t b y 1975; the r a te fo r w o m en in th e o th er m a r ita l sta tu s c a te g o r y in th is a g e grou p w a s a d v a n ced fr o m ab ou t 53 p e r c e n t in 1955 to 62 p e r c e n t in 1 9 7 5 . (S ee c h a r t 6 .) 23D ata fo r the 4 5 -5 4 and 5 5 -6 4 y e a r g ro u p s w e r e a v a ila b le o n ly s in c e 1 9 5 2 . L a b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s w e r e th e r e fo r e p r o je c te d fo r the 2 0 y e a r a g e grou p a s a g u id e fo r p r o je c tin g the r a t e s fo r th e 1 0 -y e a r a g e groups. -39 Chart 6. P r o j e c t e d R a te s o f L a b o r F o r c e P a rtic ip a tio n for W o m e n 4 5 - 6 4 JMTFL dV TES DEPARTMENT OF LAB'." BK-F-' L~5uR STATISTICS Y e a r s o f A g e , b y M a rita l S tatu s Sources: U-S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics> . 40 The n u m b er in the la b o r fo r c e w a s o b ta in ed b y m u ltip ly in g the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te fo r e a c h m a r ita l grou p b y the c o r r e sp o n d in g p o p u la tio n and ad d in g the co m p o n en t p a r ts to a to ta l fo r e a c h a g e group* S in ce th e s e w e r e A p r il w o r k e r r a te s* a c o n v e r s io n w a s m a d e to an an n u al a v e r a g e b a s is b y ad d in g c h a n g e s in A p r il la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s fo r e a c h age grou p to the c o r r e sp o n d in g 1955 an n u al a v e r a g e rate* The A g e -S e x C o m p o sitio n o f the F u tu re L a b o r F o r c e C h a n g es B e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 B y 19 6 5 , the to ta l la b o r fo r c e is e x p e c te d to n u m b er a lm o s t 80 m illio n . T h is r e p r e s e n ts a r is e o f 11 m illio n o v e r 1955. (S ee ta b le 1 2 .) T ab le 1-2. T o ta l la b o r fo r c e , b y a ge and s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 19751 (in th o u sa n d s) A ge and s e x 1955 1965 1975 6 8 ,8 9 9 7 9 , 872 4 8 , 040 8 ,2 1 0 2 2 ,2 9 7 1 7 ,5 3 3 2 0 ,8 5 9 4 ,4 4 5 4 ,2 6 6 1 2 ,1 4 8 N e t ch a n g e fr o m 1 9 5 5 -6 5 1 9 6 5 -7 5 9 4 ,7 7 5 1 0 ,9 7 3 1 4 ,9 0 3 5 3 ,2 0 6 1 0 ,9 5 7 2 2 ,3 8 0 1 9 ,8 6 9 6 2 ,3 5 3 1 4 ,3 1 9 2 6 ,0 6 3 2 1 ,9 7 1 5 , 166 2 ,7 4 7 83 2 ,3 3 6 9 ,1 4 7 3 ,3 6 2 3 ,6 8 3 2 , 102 2 6 ,6 6 6 5, 928 4 ,3 7 2 1 6 ,3 6 6 3 2 ,4 2 2 7 ,6 8 5 6 , 077 1 8 ,6 6 0 5 ,8 0 7 1 ,4 8 3 106 4 ,2 1 8 5 ,7 5 6 1 ,7 5 7 1 ,7 0 5 2 ,2 9 4 B o th s e x e s 14 y e a r s and o v e r . . . . M ale 14 y e a r s and o v e r . . . . 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s . . . . . . . . 2 5 -4 4 y e a r s • • • • • • • • 45 y e a r s and o v e r . • • F e m a le 14 y e a r s and o v e r . . • • 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s • • • • • • • • 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s .............. .. • 35 y e a r s and o v e r . • • 1 D e ta ile d d ata sh ow n in A p p en d ix ta b le A - l . S o u rce: U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , and U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f L a b o r , B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t is t ic s . 41 T he n u m b er o f w o m en w o r k e r s w ill in c r e a s e b y m o r e than 5 3 /4 m illio n and m e n b y m o r e than 5 m illio n . A s in the p a s t, p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s w ill be an im p o r ta n t d e te r m in a n t o f the c h a n g e s in the la b o r fo r c e . T he sh arp in c r e a s e s in the p o p u la tio n 1 4 -2 4 y e a r s o f a ge w ill r e s u lt in the a d d itio n o f o v e r 4 m illio n w o r k e r s in th e se a g e s , d e sp ite s m a ll d e c lin e s in th e ir la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a t e s . T h ere w ill b e a lm o s t no ch a n g e in e ith e r the p o p u la tio n o r la b o r fo r c e fo r m e n in a g e s 2 5 -4 4 . (T h e n u m b er o f m e n w o r k e r s 2 5 -3 4 w ill be ab ou t 6 0 0 ,0 0 0 s m a lle r in 1965 than 10 y e a r s e a r lie r but the 3 5 -4 4 group w ill in c r e a s e b y ab ou t 7 0 0 ,0 0 0 .) P o p u la tio n grow th w ill a ls o a c c o u n t fo r the 2 1 /4 m illio n r is e am on g m en 4 5 -6 4 . T h ere w ill be v ir tu a lly no ch an ge in the m a le la b o r fo r c e 65 y e a r s and o v e r d e sp ite the r is in g p o p u la tio n , b e c a u s e o f the r e d u c e d la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te . A m on g ad u lt w o m e n , the n u m b er of w o r k e r s 2 5 -3 4 w ill r e m a in a lm o s t u n ch a n g ed , w ith the r is in g la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te ju s t ab ou t m a k in g up fo r the s m a lle r p o p u la tio n in th is age g ro u p . P o p u la tio n in c r e a s e s in th e a g e g ro u p s 35 and o v e r to g e th e r w ith g r e a te r p r o p o r tio n s in the w o rk fo r c e w ill add m o r e than 4 m illio n w o m e n in t h e s e a g e s to the la b o r f o r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965. C h a n g es B e tw e e n 1965 and 1975. In the 10 y e a r s fr o m 1965 to 1 9 7 5 , the la b o r fo r c e is e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b y 15 m illio n w o r k e r s to n e a r ly 95 m illio n . U n lik e the la b o r fo r c e c h a n g e s in the p r e v io u s d e c a d e , m e n w ill p r o v id e a g r e a te r p a r t o f the g ro w th (o v e r 9 m illio n ) than w ill the w o m e n (5 3 /4 m illio n ). The n u m b er o f young w o r k e r s u n d er 25 y e a r s o f a g e w ill co n tin u e to in c r e a s e s h a r p ly --m o r e than 5 m illio n . T h ere w ill be a su b sta n tia l in c r e a s e o f m o r e than 4 m illio n in the n u m b er of m e n w o r k e r s 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s o f a g e and a drop o f 6 0 0 , 000 in the a g e grou p 3 5 -4 4 , c o r r e sp o n d in g to the p o p u la tio n c h a n g e s. A b ou t 1 3 /4 m illio n m e n 4 5 -6 4 y e a r s o f a g e w ill a ls o be ad ded and a g a in the d e c lin in g r a te o f la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n fo r m e n 65 and o v e r w ill h o ld dow n the la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e in th is a g e grou p to o n ly 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 e v e n though the p o p u la tio n in th is grou p is e x p e c te d to grow b y 1 l / 2 m il 1 io n . A t th e sa m e tim e , the in c r e a s e in the n u m b er o f a d u lt w o m en in the la b o r fo r c e (4 m illio n ) is e x p e c te d to be so m e w h a t s m a lle r than in th e p e r io d 1955 to 1965. T h eir la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s a r e e x p e c te d to r i s e , b u t it s e e m s u n lik e ly th a t the g a in s w ill co n tin u e a t the sa m e r a te a s in the p r e v io u s d e c a d e . F o r one th in g , it is e s tim a te d th at th e ir r a te s w ill b e q u ite h ig h b y 1965 and w ill h a v e b e e n r a is e d to th at p o in t b y the a d d itio n o f m a n y w o m en w h o se w o rk a c tiv ity is m a r g in a l in the s e n s e o f n ot b e in g fu ll tim e or fu ll y e a r and d ep en d in g to so m e e x te n t u p on la b o r d em a n d r a th e r than on e c o n o m ic n e c e s s it y a lo n e . H ow m u ch the p r o p o r tio n o f w o m en in the la b o r fo r c e w ill in c r e a s e w ill d ep en d upon m a n y fa c to r s su ch a s a v a ila b ility o f jo b s , lo c a tio n of jo b s , and h o u r s o f w o r k . M o r e o v e r , the c o m p e titio n o f la r g e r n u m b e r s o f young a d u lt m e n (not tru e in 1 9 5 5 -6 5 ) co u ld w e ll h a v e a d a m p en in g e ffe c t on the r a te o f in c r e a s e in la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n fo r w om en. 42 T ren d s in P a r t-tim e and F u ll- t im e E m p lo y m e n t Up to th is p o in t, the d is c u s s io n h a s r e la te d e n tir e ly to the c h a n g e s in the n u m b er o f w o r k e r s b y a ge and s e x . S in ce the n u m e r ic a l in c r e a s e w ill c o n s is t to a la r g e e x te n t o f y o u n g er w o r k e r s and a d u lt w o m e n , a m on g w h om p a r t - t im e 24 w o rk is q u ite p r e v a le n t, the tr e n d s in p a r t-tim e and fu ll-tim e e m p lo y m e n t w e r e p r o je c te d to a s s e s s the e ffe c t on the to ta l am ou n t o f la b o r in p u t to be e x p e c te d fr o m the fu tu re la b o r fo r c e . T he a v e r a g e n u m b er o f h o u r s w o rk ed in a w e e k d iffe r m a r k e d ly am o n g the v a r io u s a g e - s e x g r o u p s. L e s s than 10 p e r c e n t o f m e n in the a g e s 2 5 -5 4 w o r k p a r t tim e , c o m p a r e d w ith a lm o s t 50 p e r c e n t o f te e n a g e b o y s , and ab ou t 25 p e r c e n t o f w o m en o v e r 35 and o f m e n o v e r 65 (ta b le 13). T ab le 13. H o u rs d istr ib u tio n o f p e r s o n s a t w o r k , b y a g e and s e x , an n u a l a v e r a g e 1955 P e r c e n t d is tr ib u tio n b y h o u r s w o rk ed A g e and s e x B o th s e x e s 14 y e a r s and o v e r . . • M ale 14 y e a r s and o v e r . . . 1 4 - 19 y e a r s ................. 2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ................. 2 5 -5 4 y e a r s ................. 5 5 -6 4 y e a r s .............. .. 65 y e a r s and o v e r . . F e m a le 14 y e a r s and o v e r . . . 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ................. 2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ................. 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s ................. 35 y e a r s and o v e r . • N u m b er at w ork (th o u sa n d s) F u ll tim e P a r t tim e T o ta l (35 h o u r s o r m o r e ) T o ta l 1 5 -3 4 1 -1 4 hour s h ou rs 6 0 ,2 6 2 100. 0 8 2 .9 17. 1 12. 9 4 1 ,4 3 0 2 , 581 2 ,8 9 6 2 8 ,1 9 9 5, 501 2 ,2 5 7 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 .4 5 1. 0 8 6 .4 9 1 .7 8 8 .2 73. 3 12. 6 49. 0 13. 6 8 .3 11. 8 2 6 .7 9 .7 2 .9 2 9 . 2 19. 8 1 0 .7 2 . 8 7 .2 1. 1 9 .6 2. 1 18. 3 8 .4 1 8 ,8 2 9 1 ,7 4 9 2 ,2 0 8 3 ,8 3 6 1 1 ,0 3 9 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 0 0 0 0 0 73. 0 56. 3 81. 1 76. 5 7 2 .7 27. 0 4 3 .7 1 8 .9 23. 5 27. 3 19. 8 7 . 3 2 1 .7 2 2 . 0 1 4 .7 4 .2 1 8 .4 5. 1 2 0 .9 6 .4 4. 3 N ote: B e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g , su m s o f in d iv id u a l ite m s do not n e c e s s a r ily eq u a l to ta ls . S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n su s. 2 4 F u ll-tim e w o rk is d e fin e d a s c o n s is tin g o f 35 h o u r s or m o r e p e r w e e k and p a r t-tim e a s l e s s than 35 h o u r s . 43 T h ere a r e s e v e r a l r e a s o n s fo r th e s e d iffe r e n c e s* A tten d in g sc h o o l is the p r im a r y a c tiv ity o f m a n y t e e n - a g e r s w ho a r e in the la b o r fo r c e . A s a r e s u lt , th e y ca n w o rk o n ly a fte r sc h o o l h o u r s or on S a tu rd a y . S in ce young p e o p le w ho a r e b oth stu d e n ts and w orkers c o m p r is e a lm o s t o n e -h a lf the n u m b er o f 1 4 -1 9 y e a r - o ld s in the la b o r f o r c e , the a ge group a s a w h o le h a s a h e a v y w e ig h tin g o f p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s . A lth ou gh a m a jo r ity o f w o m en w o rk fu ll tim e , h o m e r e s p o n s ib ilit ie s p r e v e n t so m e fr o m d oin g s o . M o r e o v e r , th e n u m b er o f p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s h a s in c r e a s e d s te a d ily in r e c e n t y e a r s . B e tw e e n 1947 and 1 9 5 6 , a p e r io d w h en the n u m b er o f p e r s o n s a t w o rk in c r e a s e d b y 6. 3 m illio n , p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s a c c o u n te d fo r a lm o s t 3 m illio n o f th is in c r e a s e . The tren d to w a rd m o r e p a r t-tim e w o r k e r p a r tic ip a tio n in the la b o r fo r c e w ill p r o b a b ly co n tin u e due to the fo llo w in g fa c to r s : 1* T he p r o p o r tio n o f young w o r k e r s w ho a r e a ls o a tten d in g sc h o o l is e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e b e c a u s e m a n y m o r e b o y s and g ir ls than fo r m e r ly fin is h h ig h sc h o o l and go to c o lle g e . S in ce th e s e stu d en t w o r k e r s a r e p r im a r ily p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , th e in c r e a s e d w e ig h tin g o f the sc h o o l grou p w ill u n d o u b ted ly in c r e a s e the p r o p o r tio n o f young p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s . 2. P a r tic ip a tio n r a te s o f a d u lt w o m en h a v e in c r e a s e d s te a d ily in r e c e n t y e a r s and in so m e c a s e s h a v e e x c e e d e d th e ir w a r tim e p e a k s . T h is h a s b e e n a c c o m p a n ie d b y an in c r e a s e in p a r t-tim e w o rk . T he p r o p o r tio n o f w o m e n 35 and o v e r in n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l e m p lo y m e n t w ho w o rk l e s s than 35 h o u r s a w e e k in c r e a s e d fr o m 2 3 .4 p e r c e n t in 1947 to 2 6 .4 p e r c e n t in 1956. 25 M o r e o v e r , d ata sh o w th at m o s t o f the p a r t-tim e w o rk is b y ch o ice# It is th e r e fo r e r e a so n a b le to a s s u m e th at m a n y o f the a d u lt w o m en w ho a r e e x p e c te d to e n te r the la b o r fo r c e w ill be a b le to do so o n ly on a p a r t-tim e b asis# 3. The S o c ia l S e c u r ity A c t w a s r e c e n tly a m en d ed to r a is e the m a x im u m e a r n in g s r e tir e d w o r k e r s a r e p e r m itte d b e fo r e b e n e fits u n d er s o c ia l s e c u r ity a r e su sp e n d e d . T h is m a y in d u ce m o r e o ld e r w o r k e r s to tak e p a r t-tim e w o r k in s te a d o f d ro p p in g out o f the la b o r fo r c e a lto g e th e r . M eth od o f P r o je c tin g P a r t - t im e and F u ll-tim e W o r k e r s The c o n tin u a tio n o f the a b o v e tr e n d s a s w e ll a s the c h a n g e s in the a g e s e x str u c tu r e o f the la b o r fo r c e b y 1965 and 1975 w ill h a v e a d ir e c t e ffe c t on the h o u r s w o r k e d , e v e n a s s u m in g no in stitu tio n a l c h a n g e s in h o u r s o f w o r k . In o r d e r to e v a lu a te the im p a c t o f the ch a n g in g la b o r fo r c e c o m p o s itio n on h o u r s o f w o r k , p r o je c tio n s o f h o u r s w o rk ed w e r e m a d e s e p a r a te ly fo r e a c h a g e - s e x g rou p fo r w h ich la b o r fo r c e p r o je c tio n s w e r e m a d e . T he p r o p o r tio n s o f the p o p u la tio n w o rk in g 1 -1 4 h o u r s , 1 5 -3 4 , and 35 h o u r s o r m o r e w e r e p r o je c te d to 1975. S in ce both la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n r a te s and 2 5 U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s , C u rren t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , S e r ie s P - 5 0 , N o . 7 5 , W om en P a s t T h ir ty -F iv e in the L a b o r F o r c e : 1947 to 1956. 4 4 the h o u r s d istr ib u tio n w e r e b a se d on p o p u la tio n , it w a s p o s s ib le to k eep the p r o je c tio n s of h o u r s o f w o rk c o n s is te n t w ith the c h a n g e s p r o je c te d in the la b o r fo r c e p a r tic ip a tio n ra tes* D ata fo r 1948 to 1956 w e r e u s e d in p r o je c tin g h o u r s d istr ib u tio n up to 1975. S in ce in fo r m a tio n on h o u r s b y stu d en t sta tu s w a s a v a ila b le o n ly fo r O c to b e r , th at m on th w a s u s e d . The d istr ib u tio n s b y h o u r s w e r e c h a r te d and the tr e n d s p r o je c te d to 197 5 a s fo llo w s: F o r m e n in a g e s 25 to 64 the p r o p o r tio n s w o rk in g in e a c h c a te g o r y o f h o u r s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t a t 1955 le v e ls sin c e th e r e w a s no e v id e n c e o f c o n s is te n t ch an ge in r e c e n t y e a r s . The h o u r s d istr ib u tio n s fo r m e n 65 y e a r s and o v e r w e r e c h a r te d and p r o je c te d s e p a r a te ly b y fa r m and n o n fa rm g r o u p in g s. The h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s o f th o se in n o n fa rm e m p lo y m e n t in th is a g e grou p sh o w ed th at a ll the n o n fa rm d e c lin e h a s ta k en p la c e a m o n g fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s and th at the p a r ttim e p r o p o r tio n h a s in c r e a s e d v e r y s lig h tly . S im ila r ly the d e c lin e in the fa r m s e c t o r s h a s b e e n p r im a r ily a m o n g .fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s . (S ee c h a r t 7 .) F o r the to ta l a ge g ro u p , the p r o je c te d tr e n d s w ill p r o v id e so m e in c r e a s e in the n u m b er o f p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , ju s t ab ou t o ffse ttin g the d e c lin e s a m on g f u ll-tim e w o r k e r s . F o r p e r s o n s in a g e g r o u p s u n d er 25 y e a r s , the h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s w e r e c h a r te d and p r o je c te d s e p a r a te ly fo r stu d e n ts and n o n stu d e n ts. T he h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t fo r n o n stu d en t w o r k e r s , m o s t o f w h o m h a v e fu ll- t im e jo b s . F o r stu d en t w o r k e r s , s m a ll in c r e a s e s w e r e a llo w e d in the p r o je c te d p r o p o r tio n o f m e n a g ed 1 8 -1 9 w o rk in g p a r t - t im e , in the p r o p o r tio n s o f m e n 2 0 -2 4 w o rk in g p a r t tim e and fu ll t im e , and in the p r o p o r tio n s o f g ir ls 2 0 -2 4 w o rk in g p a r t tim e . T he o th er g r o u p s w e r e h e ld c o n sta n t. A lth ou gh m u ch of the in c r e a s e d w o r lc a c tiv ity o f a d u lt w o m en h a s b e e n in the f u ll- t im e g r o u p , th e r e h a s b e e n so m e r is e in the p r o p o r tio n w o rk in g p a r t tim e . B oth the fu ll- t im e and p a r t-tim e p r o p o r tio n s fo r e a c h age grou p a m o n g a d u lt w o m en w e r e , th e r e fo r e , a llo w e d to in c r e a s e . T he p a s t tr e n d s and the p r o je c tio n s fo r w o m e n a g ed 5 5 -6 4 a r e sh ow n in c h a r t 8. T h e se e x tr a p o la tio n s o f h o u r s d is tr ib u tio n s m a d e on an O cto b er b a s is w e r e la te r c o n v e r te d to a n n u a l a v e r a g e le v e l s . T he c h a n g e s in d is tr ib u tio n fr o m O cto b er 1955 to O c to b e r I9 6 0 and in e a c h su b se q u e n t 5 -y e a r p e r io d w e r e a d d ed to the 1955 a n n u a l a v e r a g e h o u r s d istr ib u tio n fo r e a c h a g e g ro u p . The p r o je c te d d is tr ib u tio n s w e r e th en a p p lie d to the p r o je c te d p o p u la tio n b y a g e and s e x to o b ta in the n u m b er in e a c h o f the c a t e g o r ie s , 1 -1 4 h o u r s , 1 5 -3 4 and 35 h o u r s or m o r e . -4 5 Chart 7. P ro je cte d P ercent of W o rk in g M ale P o p u la tio n Full T im e and 65 Y ears and O ver P a r t T im e Percent UNITED STATES DEPARTMENTOF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Sources:U.S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics -4 6 Chart 8. P r o je cte d Percent of W o rk in g Percent UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR F em a le P op u la tion Full T im e and 5 5 -6 4 Y ears O ld P a r t T im e Percent Sources. U. S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 UREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The p r o je c tio n s o f h o u r s , th en , tak e a cco u n t o f r e c e n t tr e n d s in the h o u r s w o rk ed b y e a c h a g e - s e x g ro u p , and the in c r e a s e e x p e c te d in e a c h a g e - s e x grou p in the la b o r fo r c e . N o a llo w a n c e w a s m a d e fo r an y g e n e r a l ch a n g e in the w o rk w eek su ch a s m ig h t r e s u lt fr o m a g r e e m e n ts r e a c h e d b y c o lle c tiv e b a r g a in in g , or fr o m e n a c tm e n t o f le g is la tio n . C h a n g es in the P a r t - t im e C o m p o sitio n o f the F u tu re L a b o r F o r c e B y 1 9 6 5 , th e r e w ill b e about 15 m illio n p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s in the la b o r f o r c e , an in c r e a s e o f 3. 8 m illio n o v e r th e ir n u m b er in 1955 (tab le 14). The p a r t-tim e g ro u p , w h ich c o m p r is e s a p p r o x im a te ly 15 p e r c e n t o f the to ta l la b o r fo r c e , w ill a c c o u n t fo r 35 p e r c e n t of the 11 m illio n g ro w th in the la b o r fo r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965. Y oung w o r k e r s u n d er 25 y e a r s o f age w ill m a k e the h e a v ie s t c o n trib u tio n to the g ro w th in the p a r t-tim e la b o r f o r c e - in c r e a s in g b y 1. 9 m illio n to 4. 8 m illio n in 1965. W om en o v e r 35 w ill p r o v id e a lm o s t a ll the r e s t o f the a d d itio n a l p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s , in c r e a s in g b y 1. 3 m illio n to 4 . 3 m illio n in 1965 (c h a r t 9). B e tw e e n 1965 and 1 9 7 5 , the n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s w ill co n tin u e to in c r e a s e su b s ta n tia lly b ut not a s m u ch a s in the p r e c e d in g d e c a d e . T h ey w ill exp an d b y 3. 4 m illio n to 17. 5 m illio n w h ile the to ta l la b o r fo r c e w ill in c r e a s e b y 15 m illio n . The n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s u n d er 25 w ill in c r e a s e b y 1. 7 m illio n to 6. 5 m illio n . T h is in c r e a s e w ill be s m a lle r than in the p r e c e d in g d eca d e p r im a r ily b e c a u s e the p r o p o r tio n w ho w ill be both stu d e n ts and p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s is not e x p e c te d to exp an d a s m u ch a s in the 47 Chart 9. P ro je c te d Changes by Age G roups UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS in N u m b e r and of F u ll-T im e Sex, 1 9 5 5 -6 5 and and P a rt-T im e 1 9 6 5 -7 5 W orkers, 48 T ab le 14. P e r s o n s at w o rk b y fu ll-tim e and p a r t-tim e s ta tu s , b y s e x , an n u al a v e r a g e s , 1955 and p r o je c te d 1965 and 19 7 5 1 (M illio n s of p e r s o n s ! 4 y e a r s old and o v e r ) N e t ch a n g e f r o m - 1955 S e x and h o u r s w o rk ed 1965 1975 1 9 5 5 -6 5 1 9 6 5 -7 5 B oth s e x e s T o ta l la b o r f o r c e ............................... T o ta l at w o r k 2................ F u ll tim e (35 h o u r s or m o r e ). . . . . . . P a r t t i m e .............................. 1 5 -3 4 h o u r s ................................. 1 -1 4 h o u r s . ................... 6 8 .9 60. 3 7 9 .9 71. 0 9 4. 8 84. 6 11. 0 10. 7 14. 9 13. 6 4 9 .9 10. 3 7. 8 2. 6 5 6 .9 14. 1 10. 3 3. 8 6 7. 1 17. 5 1 2 .7 4 .8 7. 3. 2. 1. 0 8 5 2 10. 2 3 .4 2. 4 1 .0 48. 0 4 1 .4 53. 2 4 6 .7 6 2 .4 55. 1 5 .2 5. 3 9 .2 8 .4 3 6. 2 5. 2 4. 0 1. 2 3 9 .8 6 .9 5. 2 1 .7 4 6 .6 8. 5 6 .4 2. 1 3. 6 1. 7 1. 2 .5 6. 8 1. 6 1 .2 .4 20. 9 18. 8 2 6. 7 2 4. 3 3 2 .4 29. 5 5. 8 5. 5 5 .7 5. 2 13. 7 5. 1 3 .7 1 .4 17. 7. 5. 2. 20. 5 9. 0 6. 3 2 .7 3. 4 2. 1 1 .4 .7 3 .4 1. 8 1. 2 .6 M a le s T o ta l la b o r f o r c e ........... .. .............. T o ta l at w o rk 2................................... F u ll tim e (35 h o u r s o r m o r e ). .............. P a r t t i m e .......................................... 1 5 -3 4 h o u r s .................................. 1 -1 4 h o u r s ...................... .. F e m a le s T o ta l la b o r f o r c e ............................... T o ta l at w o rk 2...................... .. F u ll tim e (35 h o u r s o r m o r e ) ................. P a r t t i m e .............................. 1 5 -3 4 h o u r s ................................ 1 -1 4 h o u r s ................................. 1 2 1 1 1 D e ta ile d d ata sh ow n in A p p en d ix ta b le A - 2. 2 E x c lu d e s m e m b e r s o f the A r m e d F o r c e s , u n em p lo y ed p e r s o n s , and th o se w ith a job but not a t w o rk fo r r e a s o n s su ch a s v a c a tio n or illn e s s . N o te: B e c a u s e o f ro u n d in g , su m s of in d iv id u a l ite m s do n ot n e c e s s a r ily eq u a l to ta ls . S o u r c e : U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u of the C e n su s and U . S. D e p a r tm e n t of L a b o r , B u rea u o f L ab or S t a t is t ic s . 49 e a r lie r p e r io d . T he in c r e a s e in p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s am o n g w o m en 35 y e a r s and o v e r (7 0 0 ,0 0 0 ) w ill a ls o be l e s s than in the p r e v io u s d e c a d e . T h is w ill r e s u lt la r g e ly fr o m a s m a lle r o v e r a ll la b o r fo r c e in c r e a s e in th is a ge g ro u p . H o w e v e r , w o m en 25 to 34 w ill p r o v id e 500, 000 a d d itio n a l p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s . A la r g e r n u m b er o f fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s w ill be ad d ed to the la b o r fo r c e b e tw e e n 1965 and 1975 than in the p r e c e d in g 10 y e a r s . T h is w ill r e f le c t p r im a r ily the g r e a te r n u m b er o f ad u lt m a le w o r k e r s w ho a r e p r im a r ily fu ll-tim e w o r k e r s . Im p lic a tio n s H ow w ill the c h a n g e s in the a g e - s e x str u c tu r e o f the la b o r fo r c e and the g r e a te r n u m b er of p a r t-tim e w o r k e r s a ffe c t the q u a lity o f the w o r k fo r c e , la b o r in p u t,an d la b o r fo r c e tu r n o v e r in the y e a r s ah ead ? D e sp ite a su b sta n tia l in c r e a s e in to ta l la b o r fo r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1 9 6 5 , th e r e w ill be a s c a r c it y o f w o r k e r s in so m e a g e s and an a m p le su p p ly in o th e r s . T h ere w ill be a sh o r ta g e of m a le w o r k e r s in the im p o r ta n t a g e g ro u p s fr o m 25 to 44 y e a r s , w h ich n o r m a lly su p p ly the s k ille d w o r k e r s r e q u ir e d to r e p la c e l o s s e s c r e a te d b y d eath and r e tir e m e n t and to f ill exp an d in g n e e d s c r e a te d b y a d v a n cin g te c h n o lo g y . T h is situ a tio n sh ou ld be fa v o r a b le to the o ld e r w o r k e r . B e c a u s e the o v e r a ll n ee d fo r w o r k e r s w ill be r is in g w h ile the n u m b er o f m e n in the c e n tr a l a g e s w ill not be in c r e a s in g , o ld e r w o r k e r s w ill be in g r e a te r d em a n d . E m p lo y e r s w ill tr y to k eep th e ir e x p e r ie n c e d o ld e r w o r k e r s w ho w ill g e n e r a lly be m o r e q u a lifie d to f ill the gap in s k ille d jo b s c r e a te d b y the r e la tiv e ly sh o r t su p p ly o f m e n in the c e n tr a l a g e s . M o r e o v e r , e m p lo y e r s w ill h a v e to fin d the a d d itio n s to th e ir s k ille d s ta ffs a m o n g the la r g e n u m b e r s o f young w o r k e r s and a d u lt w o m en w ho w ill be e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e d u rin g the sa m e p e r io d . The in c o m in g grou p w ill b e ad eq u ate in n u m b er but m a n y o f th em w ill be in e x p e r ie n c e d and w ill th e r e fo r e r e q u ir e tr a in in g . E m p lo y e r s m a y h a v e to c o n s id e r u sin g w o m en w o r k e r s in a v a r ie ty o f jo b s n ot p r e v io u s ly op en to w o m en . T h is too w ill m e a n job tr a in in g . S om e of the w o m en r e tu rn in g to the w o r k fo r c e w ill h a v e u sa b le job e x p e r ie n c e and s k ills a c q u ir e d in e a r lie r p e r io d s of e m p lo y m e n t, but o th e r s w ill r e q u ir e tr a in in g or a t le a s t r e tr a in in g in p r e v io u s s k ills . C o m p a red w ith the r e la tiv e sh o r ta g e o f s k ille d w o r k e r s , a g r e a t m a n y u n s k ille d w o r k e r s w ill be c o m p e tin g fo r jo b s b e c a u s e the n u m b er of w o m e n e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e and the n u m b er o f young p e o p le r e a c h in g w o rk in g a g e in the n ex t d eca d e w ill be so la r g e . M o r e o v e r , so m e r e tir e d w o r k e r s w ill be se e k in g p a r t-tim e , l e s s s k ille d jo b s and th e y w ill a ls o add to the c o m p e titio n . T h e r e fo r e , the a m o u n t and q u a lity o f e d u c a tio n and v o c a tio n a l tr a in in g w ill b e v e r y im p o r ta n t in th is c o m p e titiv e situ a tio n . A lth ou gh a m a jo r ity o f the w o m en and you n g w o r k e r s e n te r in g the la b o r fo r c e b e tw e e n 1955 and 1965 w ill be se e k in g fu ll-tim e jo b s , a su b sta n tia l n u m b er w ill w an t o n ly p a r t-tim e w o r k . F r o m the e m p lo y e r s 1 p o in t o f v ie w , it m a y m ea n the r e s c h e d u lin g o f m a n y jo b s to a p a r t-tim e b a s is . T h is w ou ld be an e x te n s io n o f the tren d th at h a s b e e n d e v e lo p in g in 50 m any trade and service estab lish m en ts, where much of the recent in crease in p art-tim e em ploym ent has occurred. In turn, the number of part-tim e jobs that w ill be available m ay influence the supply of w orkers. The recent in crea ses in labor force participation rates of m arried women have undoubtedly been partially due to expanding part-tim e job opportunities in suburban stores and service estab lish m en ts. If sufficient additional part-tim e jobs are not available, there m ay not be as much continued in crease as projected in the labor force participation rates for this group. 26 The extent of labor force participation on the part of students is also dependent upon the availability of part-tim e jobs. T herefore, the propor tion of students in the labor force m ay declin e, if the number of short-hour jobs does not keep pace with the supply of student labor offered. Another aspect of the situation is that m any young people need jobs to help pay the high costs of college education, i. e. , having a job m akes the difference betw een being able to go to school or not. T herefore, if p art-tim e jobs are not available, the number of college students m ay not in crease as much as indicated in these projections, and those who cannot afford to continue in school w ill becom e fu ll-tim e w orkers. The in creased proportion of part-tim e w orkers in the labor force w ill, of cou rse, affect the average number of hours worked per week by all p erson s. A rough computation indicates that in 1965 average w eekly hours of work m ay be about one-half hour le s s than in 1955 as a resu lt of the in creased proportion of part-tim e w orkers in the labor force. Between 1965 and 1975 average w eekly hours w ill not be affected much because the in crease in part-tim e w orkers w ill be offset by an in crease in the number of adult m ale w ork ers, p articularly in ages 25-34, alm ost all of whom work full tim e. The addition of so many young w orkers and m arried women to the labor force during the years ahead w ill undoubtedly resu lt in an in crease in the number of w orkers who change jobs or who work only part of the year. Young w orkers tend to try m ore than one job before settling into a perm anent career. M oreover, both young w orkers and m arried wom en frequently move into and out of the labor force as their personal circu m stances change. For exam ple, som e m arried women work during the 2 6 The question of availability of this large additional number of parttim e jobs is being studied by the Bureau of Labor S ta tistics, in connection with its research program on industrial and occupational trends and outlook. 51 school year but leave the labor force during the sum m er months when their school-age children are hom e. Some students work only part of the year depending upon the p ressu re of their school a ctiv ities. This contrasts sharply with the custom ary pattern for adult m en to work all year on a fu ll tim e b a s is .2 7 Some of the wom en who are p art-year w orkers will gontinue their pattern of interm ittent labor force attachm ent throughout their working y ears. For young m en, on the other hand, the part-year or part-tim e pattern rep resen ts only a tem porary situation preceding their perm anent, fu ll-tim e labor force activity. While m ovem ent into and out of the labor force im p lies som e lo ss of training and efficien cy, actually these w orkers provide a flexible source of labor supply. If em ployers select w orkers with care, taking into account the in d ivid u als probable future work patterns and cap ab ilities, they can find w orkers to fill many of their manpower needs among these p art-year and p art-tim e groups. For exam ple, som e can be used for tem porary expansion of the work force to m eet seasonal needs; others can be used for year-round part-tim e work that req u ires little training; and still others can be trained for eventual perm anent fu ll-tim e em ploym ent. 2 7 C ensus Bureau data on m onthly m ovem ents into and out of the labor force indicate that only about 1 out of every 100 m ale w orkers betw een ages 25 and 64 enters or leaves the labor force each month. Even for those in ages over 64, le s s than 10 percent leave or reenter the work force. In contrast, an average of alm ost 20 percent of teen -a gers who w ere in the work force in one month w ere not in the labor force in the previous month, and about the sam e proportion of this age group withdraw each month. Although the proportionate m ovem ent for adult wom en is not quite so high as that of the teen-age group--about 10 p er c en t--it still rep resen ts a very large labor force turnover. 52 Table A - l. Population, total labor force, and labor force participation ra tes, by age and sex, actual 1955 and projected 1960-75 Age and sex Both sexes 14 years and over.................... Male 14 years and o v e r .. . . . . . . . 14-19 y e a rs............................. 14- 17 y e a r s ........................ 18-19 years ......................... 20-24 y e a r s............................. 25- 34 y e a r s............................. 35-44 y e a r s............................. 45- 54 y e a rs...............• • • • • • 55-64 y e a r s............ ................ 65 years and over*............... Fem ale 14 years and over............ 14-19 y e a r s............................. 14- 17 y e a r s......................... 18-19 years ........................ 20-24 y ea rs............................. 25-34 y e a r s............................. 35-44 y e a r s ............................ 45-54 y e a r s............................. 55-64 y e a r s............................. 65 years and o v e r ............... Total population, July (thousands) 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 118,846 126, 528 138,127 150,691 163,704 58,344 6, 896 4,696 2,200 5,399 11,878 11,182 9,336 7,094 6,559 61,765 8,218 5,700 2, 518 5,703 11,309 11,731 10,180 7, 505 7, 119 67,239 10,676 7,304 3,372 6, 808 11,229 11,913 10,726 8, 144 7,743 73,247 11, 878 8,089 3,789 8,791 12,614 11,351 11,278 8,936 8,399 79,540 12, 574 8, 365 4,209 9,794 15,671 11,290 11,480 9,471 9,260 60, 502 6, 682 4, 542 2, 140 5,367 12,258 11, 627 9, 564 7,4 35 7, 568 64,763 7,957 5, 504 2,453 5, 608 11,515 12, 252 10,666 8, 105 8,660 70, 888 10,267 7,0 28 3,239 6,694 11, 298 12,375 11,404 8,955 9,895 77,444 11,437 7,786 3, 651 8, 552 12, 608 11,639 12,028 10,030 11,150 84,164 12,105 8, 049 4, 056 9, 537 15, 542 11,437 12,168 10,763 12,612 53 •Table A - 1. Population, total labor force, and labor force participation rates, by age and sex, actual 1955 and projected 1960-75--C ontinued Age and sex Both sexes 14 years and over.................... Male 14 years and over............ 14-19 y e a r s............................. 14-17 years .. . ................. 18-19 years • • • ................. 20-24 y e a r s............................. 25-34 y e a r s ............................ 35-44 y e a r s............................. 45- 54 y e a r s................. 55- 64 y e a r s............................. 65 years and o v er................ F em ale 14 years and o v e r .................. 14- 19 y e a r s............................. 14-17 years ........................ 18-19 years ........................ 20-24 y e a r s............ ................ 25- 34 y e a r s............................. 35-44 y e a r s............................. 45- 54 y e a r s............ ................ 55-64 y e a r s ............................ 65 years and o v er................ Total labor force, ;a nnual averages (thousands) 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 68,899 73, 550 79,872 87,092 94,775 48, 040 49,971 3,378 3,939 1,696 2,035 1, 682 1, 904 4,832 5,024 11,462 10,913 10, 835 11,367 8,879 9,681 6,129 6,484 2,525 2, 563 53,206 5, 034 2,549 2,485 5,923 10,836 11,544 10,200 7,036 2,633 57,443 5, 534 2,783 2,751 7, 587 12,173 10,999 10,725 7,721 2,704 62,353 5,896 2, 861 3,035 8,423 15, 123 10,940 10,917 8, 183 2,871 20,859 23,579 26,666 29,649 32,422 1,987 2, 276 2,896 3, 180 3,374 899 1, 145 1,448 1,588 1, 642 1, 088 1, 131 1,448 1, 592 1,732 2,458 2,546 3,032 3, 866 4, 311 4,266 4,3 64 4,372 4,905 6, 077 4,814 5,268 5, 631 5,470 5,478 4, 160 5, 141 5,941 6, 555 6,814 2,394 3,031 3,636 4, 313 4,779 780 953 1, 158 1, 360 1, 589 54 Table A - 1. Population, total labor force, and labor force participation ra tes, by age and sex, actual 1955 and projected 1960-75--Continued Age and sex Both sexes 14 years and over.................... Male 14 years and over.................... 14-19 y e a r s............................. 14-17 years ........................ 18-19 years ........................ 20- 24 y ears. • • • • • * • • • • • • 25-34 y e a r s............ ................ 35-44 y e a r s............................. 45-54 y e a rs............................. 55- 64 years. ........................... 65 years and o v e r ............... F em ale 14 years and over.................... 14- 19 y e a r s............................. 14-17 years ......................... 18-19 y e a r s ......................... 20-24 y ea rs............................. 25-34 y ears'............................ 35-44 y e a r s............................. 45-54 y e a r s............................. 55-64 y e a r s............................. 65 years and over • • • • • • • Labor force participation rate s annual averages (percent) 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 58. 0 58. 1 57. 8 57. 8 57.9 82. 3 4 9 .0 36. 1 76. 5 89. 5 96. 5 9 6.9 95. 1 8 6 .4 38. 5 80.9 47. 9 3 5.7 75. 6 88. 1 96. 5 9 6.9 95. 1 8 6 .4 36. 0 79. 1 47. 2 3 4.9 73. 7 87. 0 96. 5 9 6 .9 95. 1 8 6 .4 34. 0 7 8 .4 4 6 .6 3 4 .4 72. 6 86. 3 96. 5 9 6.9 95. 1 8 6.4 32. 2 7 8 .4 4 6 .9 34. 2 72. 1 86. 0 96. 5 9 6.9 95. 1 8 6.4 3 1.0 3 4 .5 29.7 19. 8 50.9 4 5 .8 34. 8 4 1 .4 43. 5 3 2.2 10.3 3 6 .4 28. 6 20. 8 46. 1 4 5 .4 37.9 43. 0 48. 2 3 7 .4 11. 0 37. 6 28. 2 20. 6 4 4 .7 45. 3 38.7 4 5 .5 52. 1 40. 6 11.7 38. 3 27. 8 2 0 .4 43. 6 45. 2 3 8 .9 47. 0 54. 5 4 3 .0 12. 2 38. 5 2 7.9 2 0 .4 4 2 .7 4 5 .2 39. 1 4 7 .9 56. 0 4 4 .4 12. 6 Note: B ecause of rounding, sum s of individual item s do not n ecessa rily equal totals. Source: 1955 data from the U. S. Departm ent of C om m erce, Bureau of the Census; 1960-75 population from Census Bureau*s Current Population R eports, S eries P -2 5 , No. 187 S eries III; 1960-75 labor force projected by the U. S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor S tatistics. 55 Table A -2. P erson s at w o rk ,1 by fu ll-tim e and part-tim e status, by age and sex, annual averages, 1955 and projected 1960-75 Sex, age, and hours worked Both sexes Total at w ork....................................... Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . P art tim e............................................ 15-34 h o u r s .................................. 1-14 h o u r s .................................. M ale 14 years and o v er............................. F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) . P art tim e........................................... 15-34 h o u r s .................................. 1-14 h o u r s .................................. 14-24 y e a r s .......................................... F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) . P art tim e............................................ 15-34 hours . ................................ 1-14 h o u r s .................................. 25-44 years • • . • ................................ Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . P art t i m e ........................................ 15-34 hours .................................. 1-14 h o u r s ........................ .. . . . 45 years and o v e r ........................... Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . P art tim e .......................................... 15- 34 hours • • • • • • : ................. 1- 14 hour s .................................. See footnote at end of table (M illions) 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 60.3 4 9 .9 10. 3 7. 8 2 .6 65. 3 53. 2 12. 1 9 .0 3. 1 71. 0 56.9 14. 1 10. 3 3. 8 77. 6 61.7 15.9 11. 6 4. 3 84. 6 67. 1 17. 5 12. 7 4 .8 4 1 .4 36. 2 5. 2 4. 0 1. 2 5.5 3 .8 1.7 1. 1 .6 20. 0 18. 4 1. 6 1.4 .2 15.9 14. 0 2. 0 1. 6 .4 4 3 .8 37. 8 6. 0 4 .6 1.4 6.7 4. 5 2. 2 1. 5 .7 20. 0 18.4 1. 6 1.4 .2 17. 1 14. 9 2. 2 1. 7 .5 46. 7 39. 8 6 .9 5. 2 1.7 8. 5 5. 5 2 .9 2. 0 .9 20. 1 18. 5 1.6 1.4 .2 18. 1 15. 8 2 .4 1.8 .5 50. 6 42. 8 7. 8 5. 8 1.9 10.4 6.9 3. 5 2 .4 1. 1 20.9 19. 2 1. 7 1.4 .2 19. 3 16. 7 2. 6 2. 0 .6 55. 1 46. 6 8. 5 6 .4 2. 1 11. 5 7. 6 3 .9 2.7 1.2 23. 6 21.7 1.9 1. 6 .3 20. 0 17. 3 2 .7 2. 1 .7 56 Table A -2. P erson s at w o rk ,1 by fu ll-tim e and part-tim e status, by age and sex, annual averages, 1955 and projected 1960-75-~Continued (M illions) Sex, age, and hours worked 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Fem ale 14 years and over. .............................. Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . . P art tim e.............................................. 15-34 h o u r s ..................................... 1-14 hours ..................................... 14-24 years ........................... .. F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) . . P art tim e.............................................. 15-34 hours . . ................................ 1-14 h o u r s ..................................... 25-34 y e a r s ............................................ Full tim e (35 hours or m ore) . • P art tim e......................................... 15-34 h o u r s ..................................... 1-14 h o u r s ..................................... 35 years and over............................... F ull tim e (35 hours or m ore) . . P art tim e. ............................................ 15-34 hours ..................................... 1-14 h o u r s ..................................... 18. 8 13.7 5. 1 3. 7 1.4 4 .0 2. 8 1. 2 .7 .5 3. 8 2.9 .9 .7 .2 11. 0 8. 0 3. 0 2. 3 .7 21. 5 15.4 6. 1 4 .4 1.7 4. 3 2 .9 1.4 .8 .6 4. 0 3. 0 1. 0 .8 .2 13. 2 9. 5 3 .7 2. 8 .9 24. 3 17. 1 7 .2 5. 1 2. 1 5. 3 3 .4 1. 9 1. 1 .8 4. 0 3 .0 1. 0 .8. .2 15. 0 10.7 4. 3 3. 2 1. 0 27. 0 18.9 8. 1 5.8 2 .4 6. 3 4 .0 2. 3 1. 3 1. 0 4. 5 3. 3 1. 2 .9 .3 16. 2. 11. 5 4 .7 3. 5 1. 2 29. 5 20. 5 9 .0 6. 3 2 .7 6. 8 4. 3 2. 6 1. 5 1. 1 5. 6 4. 1 1. 5 1. 1 .4 17. 1 12. 1 5. 0 3 .7 1. 3 1 Excludes m em bers of the Arm ed F o rces, unemployed p erso n s, and those with a job but not at work for reasons such as vacation or illn ess. Note: B ecause of rounding, sum s of individual item s do not n ecessa rily equal totals. Source: U. S. Departm ent of C om m erce, Bureau of the C ensus, and U. S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor S tatistics. ☆ U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1959 O -502398