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MANPOWER ADM IN ISTR A TIO N

U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

W X 31

Pilots and
Mechanics in
Civil Aviation
^B B V -V V
A STUDY OF
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS




Dayton & Montgomery Co.
Public Library

AUG 5 1970
d o c u m e n t co llectio n

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS




MANPOWER ADMINISTRATION
Malcolm R. Lovell, Administrator

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
George P. Shultz, Secretary

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Geoffrey H. Moore, Commissioner

Pilots and
Mechanics in
Civil Aviation

laev-yy
A

S TU D Y

O F

M A N P O W E R

R E Q U IR E M E N T S

Pant I, Current Situation and the Short-Range
Outlook [Manpower Administration)
Part 11, Long-Range Manpower Requirements
[Bureau of Labor S tatistics)

19*70
[BLS B ulletin 1655)

For sale by the Superintendent o f Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402 —Price $1







Preface
As a result of the unprecedented expansion in civil aviation during the past few years and the
prospect of continuing growth in the 1970’s, considerable attention has been focused recently on
the current and future supply-demand situation for trained aviation manpower. In recognition of
the need for up-to-date comprehensive information on the manpower aspects of the civil aviation
industry, the Department of Labor undertook this study designed to appraise current and future
requirements and resources for pilots and mechanics in civil aviation. The study was done at the
request and with the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of
Defense—the two Federal agencies most concerned with manpower developments in civil aviation.
The study was conducted in two parts: Part I, which was prepared under the direction of the
United States Training and Employment Service (USTES) of the Department of Labor’s Manpower
Administration presents an analysis of current and short-range requirements and resources for pilots
and mechanics in each of the principal sectors of civil aviation—both in the airlines and general
aviation categories. This analysis is based on a special survey of employers in these industry groups,
conducted by USTES in cooperation with affiliated State employment security agencies. Part II,
conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), presents projections of long-range manpower
requirements, also by principal sectors of civil aviation, and the methods used to derive these
projections.
The Department of Labor is grateful for the assistance and cooperation of the airlines, firms in
general aviation, aviation schools, aircraft manufacturers, trade associations trade unions,
government agencies and others who cooperated generously in providing information. We especially
would like to acknowledge the cooperation of the Air Transport Association of America, which
encouraged all its members in advance to complete and return the questionnaires in a survey of
firms in the various sectors of civil aviation. The work of the General Aviation District Offices of the
FAA in following up on the nonresponding firms in the air taxi, aerial applicator, aircraft repair
stations, and flight and ground schools segments of general aviation, was also very much
appreciated.
The analysis of the data in the USTES portion of the study was prepared by Edward D.
Hollander and Eleanor F. Silverman of the staff of Robert R. Nathan Associates Inc., under contract
with the U.S. Department of Labor. The planning and preparation for the USTES-State
employment security agency survey of employers in the civil aviation industry and the assembly of
the survey data for analysis were by Robert L. Miller under the supervision of Harold Kuptzin,
Chief, Division of Job Market Analysis in the USTES.
The BLS portion of the study was prepared by Richard E. Dempsey, assisted by Kevin
Kasunic, LaVerne Lang, and David P. Lafayette. Jerry Kursban assisted in the linear regression
analysis used to project manpower requirements. The BLS portion was conducted in the Bureau of
Labor Statistics’ Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Russel B. Flanders, Chief.




in




Introduction
The growth of civil aviation during the mid-1960’s has been phenomenal—in terms of all major
measurements of business activity: revenue, passenger traffic, air cargo carried and size of
employment. Revenue passenger miles (including domestic and international) during 1968 passed
the 100 billion mark—more than 3 times the record of a decade previous.1 According to the Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA), the 152 million passengers carried in 1968 nearly tripled the
number 10 years earlier. By 1980, FAA figures indicate, U.S. airlines are expected to fly a total of
379 billion revenue passenger-miles and carry 470 million passengers in scheduled domestic and
international service.
The demand for transportation of cargo by air has also increased sharply in recent
years—topping 4.1 billion cargo-ton miles in 1968.2 By 1970, an all-cargo plane capable of carrying
nearly 3 times as much freight as today’s largest cargo aircraft will be entering airline fleets.
At the same time, there has been a strong uptrend in all phases of business flying (executive
transportation) and other types of general aviation activity, and the outlook for continued growth
in the next decade is extremely favorable. The number of active general aviation aircraft rose from
85,000 in 1964 to 114,000 in 1968.3 The FAA forecast is that the number of these aircraft will
nearly double by 1980.
In 1962, the certificated route air carriers employed 17,971 pilots, copilots, flight engineers
and navigators. By 1967 this number had reached 30,956.4 During this same period, the number of
mechanics employed by these carriers moved up from 34,925 to 50,016.4
The overall expansion of civil aviation activity, coupled with the pending introduction of
jumbo and stretched jet transport and new shorthaul aircraft for local service, are expected to result
in a further increase in the annual requirements for pilots, mechanics, and other ground service
personnel.
The contribution of military training to commercial aviation manpower has always been
highly significant. According to a survey conducted by the Air Transport Association in early
1967,5 two-thirds of all pilots hired during 1966 and two-thirds of those employed at the time of
the survey had their principal training in the military services. Military training for pilots, however,
is today but a fraction of what it was during World War II and considerably below the peak reached
during the Korean conflict.
Projections made as recently as 1964 with respect to manpower needs for pilots and
mechanics in 1970 have already been greatly surpassed. The estimates erred on the low side mainly
because while increases in productivity due to new equipment were foreseen, no one then
anticipated the tremendous growth in passenger miles, hours flown, and the number of aircraft in
use which has occurred in the past few years.
The study by the U.S. Training and Employment Service (USTES) and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) represented a two-pronged approach to manpower analysis as indicated by the
different procedures and responsibilities of each. Most of the information for the USTES portion of
the study was obtained through a sample survey of firms in the various segments of civil aviation.
The questionnaire for the survey was developed with the assistance and cooperation of FAA and
DOD. The USTES portion covers the current situation and the short-range growth requirements (to
March 1970) for pilots and mechanics, training facilities for these occupations and their potential
output, age of employees, and information on pilots with respect to ratings, hours flown, and
certification to fly fixed-wing planes and/or helicopters.




v

The BLS long-range projections of pilot and mechanic requirements through 1972 and 1977,
were based on an in-depth analysis of historical trends of the factors affecting manpower
requirements in the various sectors of civil aviation. The basic data used in developing estimates and
projections of manpower requirements came from FAA, including forecasts of future aviation
activity. Information on manpower utilization and expected developments in civil aviation,
including the impact of technology on manpower requirements, were analyzed and incorporated.
Much of the information was developed through discussions with and data obtained from civil
aviation officials representing management, labor and government.
The coverage of the USTES and BLS portions of the study also differ in some other respects.
The USTES portion covers civilian pilots and mechanics employed by the Army, Navy, and Air
Force and the nonmilitary Federal agencies; the BLS portion excludes those civilian pilots and
mechanics employed in the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The USTES portion includes in general
aviation the pilots and mechanics employed by State and local governments; the BLS portion
includes these workers in the government sector.
1 A viation Forecasts, Fiscal years 1969-80, Federal Aviation Administration, January 1969.
*1969 A ir Transport Facts and Figures, Air Transport Association o f America.
3A viation Forecast, op. cit.
41968 A ir Transport Facts and Figures, Air Transport Association o f America.
5Scheduled Airline Industry P ilot Requirem ents, Report by Air Transport Association, February 1967.




vi




Rant I
Current Situation
and the
Short-Range Outlook

Contents

Page

S u m m a ry ............................................................................................................................................
P il o t s .........................................................................................................................................
M ech an ics.................................................................................................................................
Pilots and mechanics employed by the Department of D efen se.........................................

2

Chapter I. Pilots and mechanics

......................................................................................................

3

Chapter II. P ilo ts .......................................................................................................................
Employment trends ..........................................................
Air carrier pilots, by t y p e ..............................................................................................
General aviation pilots, by industry s e c t o r .................................................................
Pilot certification to fly specified types of aircraft ..................................................
Ratings held by p i l o t s ....................................................................................................
Pilots age 50 years and over ........................................................................................
Hours flown by p i l o t s ....................................................................................................
Pilot supply .............................................................................................................................
Adequacy of supply...................................................................................................................
Pilot schools...............................................................................................................................
Government a i d .........................................................................................................................
School graduates as source of s u p p ly .....................................................................................
On-the-job tra in in g ...................................................................................................................
Conclusions.................

4
4
5

13
15
16
16
16

Chapter III. Mechanics .....................................................................................................................
Employment trends ...............................................................................................................
Air carrier mechanics, by o c c u p a tio n .........................................................................
General aviation mechanics, by industry sector ........................................................
Mechanics age 50 and o v e r......................................................................................................
Mechanic supply .....................................................................................................................
Aircraft mechanic schools ...........................................................................................
Government aid ............................................................................................................
School graduates as source of supply .........................................................................
Military trained m e c h a n ic s...........................................................................................
On-the-job training ......................................................................................................
C o nclusions..............................................................................................................................

18
18
18
20
20
20
20
24
25
26
27
28

Chapter IV. U.S. Department of Defense pilots and mechanics ..................................................
Civilian p i l o t s ...........................................................................................................................
Civilian mechanics ..................................................................................................................

31
31
31

1
1
1

6
6
8

9
11
11
12

Tables:
1. Pilots and mechanics: All civil aviation, including Department of Defense,
employment trends, 1967-70
2. Pilots and mechanics: All civil aviation, including Department of Defense,
percentage distribution of employment, 1967-70 ..................................................




viii

3
3

Contents—Conti nued
Tables—Continued

Page

3. Pilots: Civil aviation, employment trends, all pilots, by industry division, 1967-70 .
4. Pilots: Civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry
division, 1967-70 ......................................................................................................
5. Pilots: Civil air carriers employment trends, by type of pilot, 1967-70 ..................
6 . Pilots: Civil air carriers, changes in employment over specified periods, by type of
pilot, 1967-70 ............................................................................................................
7. Pilots: Civil air carriers, percentage change in employment over specified period, by
type of pilot, 1967-70
8 . Pilots: Civil air carriers, ratio of pilot/flight engineers to all pilots, 1967-70 ............
9. Pilots: General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by
industry sector, 1967-70
10. Pilots: General aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by
industry sector, 1967-70
11. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots
certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division and sector, spring
1968
12. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and
helicopter pilots, by industry division and sector, anticipated employment at
peak 1970
13. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots
certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division, spring 1968 . . .
14. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and
helicopter pilots, by industry division, anticipated employment at peak 1970 . .
15. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by
highest rating held, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 .......................
16. Pilots: All civil aviation, percentage distribution of airline transport rated and
commercial rated pilots, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 .................
17. Pilots: All civil aviation, employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial who
also held instrument ratings, spring 1968 ...............................................................
18. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by
highest rating held, by industry division, spring 1968 ............................................
19. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots
aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 ......................................................................
20. Pilots: All civil aviation, total and average annual hours flown by pilots, year ending
April/May 1968
21. Pilots: Number of FAA-certificated flight and ground schools for pilots, by type of
school, 1965-68 .........................................................................................................
22. Pilots: FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated
program (rating), January 1, 1968
23. Mechanics: All civil aviation, employment trends, all mechanics, by industry
division, 1967-70
24. Mechanics: All civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by
industry division, 1967-70 .......................................................................................
25. Mechanics: Civil air carriers, employment trends, by type of mechanic, 1967-70 . .
26. Mechanics: General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by
industry sector, 1967-70 ..........................................................................................




IX

4

5
5
6

7
7
8
9

10

11

12
13
14
15
16
17
19
19
20
21
23
23
24
25

Contents—Conti nued
Tables—Continued

Page

27. Mechanics: General aviation, changes in employment, by industry sector, 1967-70 .
28. Mechanics: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed
mechanics aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 .....................................................
29. Mechanics: Number of FAA-certificated schools and approved programs (ratings)
for mechanics, by type, 1966-69 ............................................................................
30. Mechanics: FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated
program (rating), 1966-69
31. U.S. Department of Defense pilots and mechanics: Civilian aviation, employment
trends, by service, 1967-70 ............................................................................................

26
27
28

31

Appendixes:
A: Civil aviation, definitions of industry divisions and s e c to r s .........................................
B: Manpower Administration, U.S. Training and Employment Service questionnaires and
instructions, including descriptions of occupations ...............................................
C:USTES survey scope and methodology ................................................................................




x

33
35
48

Summary

Pilots

Of the nearly 67,000 pilots employed in civil aviation
in the spring of 1968, 34,500 worked for air carriers,
31,800 were employed in general aviation activities, and
about 550 were civilian employees of the Department of
Defense.
All three divisions of the industry planned to con­
tinue to expand their pilot work forces through 1970,
although to varying degrees. The largest and most rapid
growth was scheduled for general aviation, where em­
ployers contemplated reaching an estimated pilot em
ployment level of 38,000 in spring 1970, about 11,000
above spring 1967.6 Air carriers expected to add only
4,300 during this 3-year period, an estimated prospective
increase of only about 1,500 pilots a year. This would
represent a considerable slowing down and leveling off in
the sharp uptrend which characterized the carriers’
employment growth in the years from 1964 to 1967.
Reported Department of Defense civilian pilot employ­
ment expansion needs were negligible.
No shortage of pilots to meet the estimated short­
term growth requirements was experienced or antici­
pated by employers in the spring of 1968, with the possi­
ble exception of pilots with specialized skills and experi­
ence, such as agricultural pilots. Both major sources of
pilot supply-those with military-training and those with
civilian-training backgrounds—were being drawn upon.
Civilian training facilities for pilots are adequate in
number, highly elastic in response to increases in
demand, and well dispersed geographically. Government
aid to student pilots in the form of veteran’s benefits is
exceptionally generous. All sectors of the industry
provide on-the-job training.
Of the approximately 34,500 pilots and copilots
employed by civil air carriers in spring 1968, about
1,250 or 3.5 percent were flight instructors, according to
estimates based on the U.S. Training and Employment
Service (USTES) survey. In addition, about 4,000 pilots
were engaged in providing instruction in flying at general
aviation flight and ground schools. Both major divisions
of the industry contemplated increases in their flight

instructor employment and expected no difficulty in
meeting their needs.
Nearly a third of all pilots and copilots, excluding
flight instructors, employed by route air carriers in
spring 1968 were also qualified flight engineers, and no
change in this proportion was contemplated during the
period under review.
More than 92 percent of all employed civil aviation
pilots were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only. The
proportion was about 97 percent for route airlines and
87 percent in general aviation, where the remainder were
certified to fly helicopters only or both fixed-wing
aircraft and helicopters. Some increase by peak 1970 in
the proportions of fixed-wing pilots employed was
expected in all sectors except industrial/special flying.
Airline transport ratings were held by nearly 43
percent of all employed civil aviation pilots in the spring
of 1968—about 49 percent of those on carriers and
about 36 percent of those employed in general aviation.
Nearly 87 percent of all employed pilots whose highest
rating was commercial were also instrument-rated.
About 11 percent of all employed pilots were 50
years of age or over in the spring of 1968. The
proportion for route airlines, where the compulsory
retirement age is 60, was 9.4 percent. For general
aviation firms it was 12.6 percent.
Approximately 32,355,000 flight hours were logged
by professional civilian pilots in the year ending April/
May 1968, of which route airlines accounted for about
half. Annual hours flown per pilot averaged 512 for the
entire industry, with route airline pilots (excluding flight
instructors) flying an average of 522, and all general
aviation pilots combined, an average of 509 hours. There
was wide variation among general aviation sectors in the
average hours flown by pilots annually, ranging from
166 in industrial/special flying to 763 in air taxi
operations.
Mechanics

Employment of civilian aircraft mechanics in the
spring of 1968 totaled 144,000, more than twice the
number of pilots. Air carriers employed 51,000; general
6
Expansion plans o f general aviation firms, particularlyaviation, which includes all independent repair stations,
engaged 54,800; and 38,400 were civilian mechanics
those in the executive transportation and air taxi sectors, may be
adversely affected by the FAA’s new flight-rationing regulation
employed by the Department of Defense.
limiting IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) nonairline flying at five
The carriers and general aviation firms expected to
airfields serving Washington, New York, and Chicago. The rule
continue to augment their mechanic work forces
went into effect on June 1, 1969.




1

through 1970, but the Defense Department planned a
small reduction. As in the case of pilots, the bulk of the
increase was scheduled for general aviation with an
estimated spring 1970 mechanic employment level of
62,800, more than 11,000 above spring 1967. Air
carriers expected to raise their mechanic employment by
only 6,000 to a total of 55,000 during this period. By
1970, Defense Department employment was expected to
total several hundred below the 1967 level, after
reaching a high of 39,500 in 1969, according to plans
reported to the USTES in the spring of 1968.
Many reports, from both general aviation firms and
air carriers, indicated a rising and crucial need for
mechanics skilled in certain occupational specialties.
These included airplane electricians and electronic,
radio, and instrument mechanics, as well as avionic
technicians. The need for all-around airframe and engine
mechanics appeared to be falling off, but remained at a
substantial level. Job opportunities in general aviation
were best for certificated airframe and powerplant (A&P)
mechanics who could also function as pilots.
About 15 percent of all aircraft mechanics employed
in civil aviation, excluding the Department of Defense,
in the spring of 1968, were 50 years of age or over,
according to estimates based on the USTES survey of
employers. The proportion was only about 12 percent
for air carriers, but close to 17.5 percent in general
aviation. There is no compulsory retirement age for
aircraft mechanics.
Some tightness in the supply of mechanics, particu­
larly of those with certain special technical skills,
appeared to be developing in the spring of 1968. Half of
the 28 labor areas surveyed by the USTES survey
reported stringencies ranging from slight to critical.
Employers complained of shortages of fully qualified
and certificated airplane electricians, electronic and
instrument mechanics, and radio and avionic technicians,
as well as of airframe and engine mechanics.
Aircraft mechanic schools are much less numerous
and less well dispersed geographically than are training

2




facilities for pilots. Graduates of many of these schools,
the great majority of which are public institutions at
vocational high school or technical trade school levels,
can qualify only as trainees or apprentices ready for
on-the-job training. The same is true of most aircraft
mechanics with military-service training backgrounds
only. In contrast to the situation for pilots, no special
VA benefits beyond the standard ones are available to
veterans who might wish to study for aircraft mechanic
jobs. While all sectors of the industry were providing
on-the-job training in 1968, many employers felt that
they would nevertheless probably be unable to meet all
anticipated short-run growth and replacement needs in
this way, especially for mechanics with highly developed
specialized skills.
Expansion of apprenticeship and other formal on-thejob training programs, planned sufficiently in advance of
expected needs, might ease this problem in the future.
More generous government student aid grants or benefits
might encourage enrollment of veterans and others in
the better equipped private schools and universities.
Pilots and mechanics employed by the
Department of Defense

Very few civilian pilots—550 in all—but more than
38,000 civilian aircraft mechanics were employed by the
Defense Department in 1968. The civilian mechanic
work force, on the basis of plans existing in the summer
of that year, was expected to drop by more than 2,000
between 1969 and 1970, almost entirely as a result of
employment reductions contemplated by the Air Force.
While the bulk of Defense Department civilian air­
craft mechanic employment is in the Air Force, the
Navy accounted for a substantial proportion—about
14,600, or 38 percent—in 1968, and expected to add
about 1,000 between 1968 and 1970. The Army, with
850 civilian aircraft mechanics, primarily helicopter
mechanics, in 1968, contemplated an increase of about
200 .

Chapter I.

Pilots and Mechanics

There are more than twice as many civilian mechanics
as pilots employed in aviation activities,7 and mechanics
greatly outnumber pilots in each of the three major
divisions of the industry (table 1). Air carriers employed
three mechanics for every two pilots in 1967. In general
aviation, which includes all aircraft repair stations, the
ratio of mechanics to pilots was even higher. All but a
handful of the civilian aviation employees of the military
services were mechanics.
About 49,000, or 35.5 percent of all civilian aviation
mechanics employed in 1967, worked for air carriers;
about 51,500, or 37.3 percent, were in general aviation,
mainly at repair stations; and the remainder, nearly
38.000, or more than 27 percent of the total, were
civilian employees of the Department of Defense (table
2). At the 1970 peak of mechanic employment of
168,500, according to estimates based on employer
anticipations, the air carriers will account for nearly
60.000, or 35.5 percent of the total, the same propor­
tion as in 1967. General aviation will account for more
than 71,000, or about 42 percent, while Defense
Department civilian mechanic employment' will drop to
roughly 37,000, or 22 percent of the total.
The distribution of civilian pilot employment is quite
different from that of mechanics. Air carriers employ
PILOTS AND MECHANICS
Table. 1. A ll civil aviation, including Department o f Defense
employment trends, 1967-70

Number employed
Date
Total

Air
carriers

General
aviation

Dept, of
Defense 1'

Pilots-^
Spring of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 ...............................................
1969 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

60,670
66,860
71,700
76,020

33,100
34,500
36,000
37,400

27,000
31,800
35,100
38,000

570
560
600
620

Peak of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

66,580
71,220
82,220

34,900
36,300
39,400

31,100
34,300
42,200

580
620
620

Mechanics^/
Spring of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 ...............................................
1969 (est.) ....................................
1970 (est.)
...................................

138,200
144,200
152,900
155,100

49,000
51,000
53,000
55,000

51,500
54,800
60,400
62,800

37,700
38,400
39,500
37,300

Peak of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

150,000
157,900
168,500

53,300
55,400
59,800

58,000
62,500
71,400

38,700
40,000
37,300

^ C iv ilia n A viatio n employees o nly.
“ 'in clu d es pilots, copilots, p ilo t/flig h t engineers, and flig h t instructors.
-In c lu d e s a ircraft mechanics and instructors only; excludes maintenance w orkers such
as carpenters and electricians.
S O U R C E : See appendix C. A i r C a r r ie r s — USTES survey data inflated to national totals
and adjusted on basis o f relationship between F A A to tal em ploym ent and survey sample
data fo r 1 9 6 7 and 1 9 6 8 . G e n e r a l A v i a t i o n — USTES survey data inflated to national totals
on basis o f relationship between BLS em ploym ent estimates and survey sample data for
1 9 6 7 . N o t adjusted. D e p a r t m e n t o f D e f e n s e — National totals reported by A rm y , Navy,
A ir Force.




PILOTS AND MECHANICS
Table 2. A ll civil aviation, including Department of Defense
percentage distribution o f employm ent, 1967-70

Percentage distribution of employment
Date
Total

Air
carriers

General
aviation

Dept, of
Defense

Pilots
Spring of:
— m
r ...............................................
1968 ............................................
196C (est.)
...............................
1970 (est.)
...............................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

54.6
51.6
50.2
49.2

44.5
47.6
49.0
50.0

0.9
.8
.8
.8

Peak of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 (est.)
..................................
1970 ( e s t . ) ..................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

52.4
51.0
47.9

46.7
48.2
51.3

.9
.9
.8

Mechanics
Spring of:
1967
............................................
1968 ...............................................
1969 ( e s t . ) ..................................
1970 ( e s t . ) ..................................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

35.5
35.4
34.7
35.5

37.3
38.0
39.5
40.5

27.3
26.6
25.8
24.0

Peak of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 (est.)
...............................
1970 (est.)
..................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

35.5
35.1
35.5

38.7
39.6
42.4

25.8
25.3
22.1

S O U R C E : Based on table 1.

more pilots than does the general aviation division of the
industry, and the Department of Defense employs very
few. In the spring of 1967, about 33,000, or 54.6
percent of the total of nearly 60,700 employed pilots,
worked for carriers, and 27,000 or 44.5 percent, for
general aviation firms. However, these proportions were
expected to be nearly reversed by 1970. According to
estimates based on employers’ hiring plans as reported to
the USTES survey in the spring of 1968, pilot employ­
ment at the peak of 1970 will total 82,200, of which
39,400 or 48 percent will be on air carriers, and 42,200
or more than 51 percent in general aviation. Defense
Department civilian pilot employment was expected to
increase very slightly by peak 1970, and to remain at less
than 1 percent of total civilian pilot employment.
The two major occupational groups under reviewcivilian pilots and mechanics—differ sharply in their job
content and qualifications as well as their labor market
situations. In the sections which follow, they are,
therefore, considered separately. Moreover, the civilian
pilots and mechanics employed by the Defense Depart­
ment are considered separately from those employed by
the two other major components of the civil aviation
industry—air carriers and general aviation. The divisions
and sectors of the civil aviation industry are described in
appendix A.
7
All civil aviation, including civilian em ployees o f the
Department o f Defense.

3

Chapter II.
Employment trends

About 60,000 pilots8 were employed in civil avia­
tion9 in the spring of 1967. By the spring of 1968,
about 6,200, or 10.3 percent, had been added. At that
time, however, a slowing down in the rate of employ­
ment expansion over the following 2 years was contem­
plated. Spring 1969 pilot employment is estimated, on
the basis of the USTES sample survey,10 at about
71,000, roughly 4,800 or 7.2 percent above spring 1968,
and spring 1970 pilot employment at 75,400, about
4,300 or 6.0 percent above spring 1969 (tables 3 and 4).
If the hiring schedules anticipated by employers in the
spring of 1968 are realized, pilot employment will total
an estimated 81,60c11 at the peak of 1970, about
15,600 or nearly 25 percent above the 1967 peak, and
will represent an average increase of about 5,200 pilots a
year for the 3-year period. Most of the contemplated
increase is attributable to the expansion plans of the
general aviation division of the industry.
The air carriers’ pilot work force increased only about
1,400, or 4.5 percent, between 1967 and 1968. Similar
annual increases of 1,400 to 1,500, or about 4.0 percent
a year, in 1969 and 1970 are estimated. Peak 1970
employment of pilots on all civil air carriers is estimated
at 39,400, about 13 percent above the peak of 1967,
and would require the net addition of about 4,500 pilots
(1,500 a year) over the 3-year period. All but a couple of
hundred of these would be for certificated route carriers.
PILOTS
Table 3. Civil aviation, em ploym ent trends, all pilots,
by industry division, 1967-70

Air carriers
Date

Total
All

Certificated
route

General
aviation

Number employed
Spring of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 ......................
...................
1969 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

60,100
66,300
71,100
75,400

33,100
34.500
36,000
37,400

31,100
32,500
33,900
35,300

27.000
31,800
35,100
38,000

Peak of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

66,000
70,600
81,600

34,900
36,300
39,400

32,800
34,200
37,100

31,100
34,300
42,200

Percentage distribution
Spring of :
1967 ...............................................
1968 ...............................................
1969 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

55.1
52.0
50.6
49.6

51.7
49.0
47.7
46.8

44.9
48.0
49.4
50.4

Peak of:
1967 ...............................................
1968 (est.)
..................................
1970 (est.)
..................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

52.9
51.4
48.3

49.7
48.4
45.5

47.1
48.6
51.7

SOURCE: See table 1.

4




Pilots
Historical data on the employment of pilots and
other flight personnel by certificated route air carriers
indicate that the prospective annual increases of 1,400
to 1,500 a year for the 1967-70 period would represent
both a sharp slow-down and a leveling out in the very
rapid employment expansion which had been going on
since 1964. As shown in the following tabulation, such
an annual increase would be less than half the size of
that which occurred between 1966 and 1967, and about
a fourth of the 1965-66 increment of more than 5,800.
On the other hand, it would greatly exceed the annual
growth rate prevailing in the early 1960’s.
Changes in em ploym ent o f pilots, copilots,
flight engineers, and navigators b y certificated
route air carriers1

Years
19601961- 6 2
1962- 63
19631964- 65
1965- 66
1966- 67

61
.................................................
64

........................................

750
-125
340
1,240
2,420
5,835
3,150

1
FAA, Statistical H andbook o f A viation, and Air Trans­
port Association o f America, A ir Transport Facts and Figures.

Since 1967,12 general aviation firms have been
augmenting their pilot work forces at a much faster rate
than the carriers, and are expected to continue to do so,
according to estimates based on the USTES survey.
Employing 27,000 pilots in the spring of 1967, they had
added 4,800 (a 17.8-percent increase) by spring 1968,
and planned to add an additional 3,300 (or 10.4 percent
more) by the spring of 1969, and 2,900 (or 8.3 percent
more) between 1969 and 1970, to bring their total pilot
employment up to about 38,000, or 41 percent above
spring 1967. Plans through peak 1970 called for an
estimated pilot work force of more than 42,000, about
11,000 or nearly 36 percent above peak 1967, compared
8 The term “pilot” as used in this survey includes pilots,
copilots, pilot/flight engineers, and flight instructors, unless
otherwise specified. Each occupation is described in Appendix B.
9 Air carriers and general aviation, excluding civilian em­
ployees o f the Department o f Defense, who are considered in
Section IV, but including nondefense government employees.
10 Manpower Administration, U.S. Training and Employ­
ment Service, April/May 1968, see Appendixes B and C.
11 This estimate was made before United Airlines was
required, by union agreement, to have three pilots instead o f two
on its two-engine Boeing 737’s. This will add 4 0 0 to pilot
requirements.
12 Earlier figures are not available.

with an estimated increase of 4,500 or 13 percent for air
carriers. To reach this estimated peak 1970 employment
level, general aviation firms would have to add an
average of nearly 3,700 pilots a year during the 3-year
period from peak 1967 to peak 1970.
If all contemplated employment growth is realized,
there will be a continued change in the distribution of
pilot employment between the two major components
of the civil aviation industry. By the spring of 1968,
general aviation firms had already increased their share
of total pilot employment13 to 48 percent from 45
percent in the previous spring. At the estimated peak
1970 employment level, this proportion would rise to
nearly 52 percent, while the proportion for air carrier
pilot employment would decline from 55 percent in
1967 to 48 percent.
In summary, net 1967-70 requirements of the civil
aviation industry for pilots, for purposes of growth only
and not including replacements, are estimated at around
5,200 a year, on the basis of employer plans reported in
spring 1968. Over the 3-year period, it is estimated that
air carriers would require an average of roughly 1,500
pilots a year, and general aviation firms an average of
about 3,700 pilots a year, to reach estimated peak 1970
staff levels.
A ir carrier p ilo ts, b y ty p e . The USTES survey of spring

1968 provided a breakdown, for air carriers only, of
pilot employment by type, from which it was possible to
estimate the varying prospective employment trends
during the 1967-70 period under review for: All pilots
and copilots, including flight instructors; pilots and
PILOTS
Table 4. Civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods,
by industry division, 1967-70

Air carriers
Total

Date

All

Certificated
route

General
aviation

Employment increases
Spring of:
1967-68 ........................................
1968-69 (est.)
............................
1969-70 (est.)
............................
1967-70 (est.)
............................

6,200
4,800
4,300
15,300

1,400
1,500
1,400
4,300

1,400
1,400
1,400
4,200

4,800
3,300
2,900
11,000

Peak of:
1967-68 (est.)
1968-70 (est.)
1967-70 (est.)

4,600
11,000
15,600

1,400
3,100
4,500

1,400
2,900
4,300

3,200
7,900
11,100

............................
............................
............................

Percentage increases
Spring of:
1967-68 ........................................
1968-69 (est.)
............................
1969-70 (est.)
............................
1967-70 (est.)
............................

10.3
7.2
6.0
25.5

4.2
4.3
3.9
13.0

4.5
4.3
4.1
13.5

17.8
10.4
8.3
40.7

Peak of:
1967-68 (est.)
1968-70 (est.)
1967-70 (est.)

7.0
15.6
23.6

4.1
8.5
12.9

4.3
8.5
13.1

10.3
23.0
35.7

............................
............................
............................

PILOTS
T a b le 5. Civil air carriers em p lo ym e n t trends,
by ty p e o f p ilo t, 1967-70

Num ber employed
Pilots and copilots
Date

Including
flight
instructors

Excluding
flight
instructors

Flight
instructors

A ll air carriers
Spring of:
1967 ..................................................
1968 ..................................................
1969 (est.)
.....................................
1970 (est.)
.....................................

3 3,1 00
3 4,5 00
3 6,0 00
3 7,4 00

3 1 ,9 1 0
33,2 55
3 4 ,7 0 0
3 6 ,0 5 0

1 ,190
1,245
1 ,300
1,350

Peak of:
1967 ..................................................
1968 (est.)
.....................................
1970 (est.)
.....................................

3 4 ,9 0 0
3 6 ,3 00
3 9 ,4 00

3 3,655
3 5,0 00
3 8,0 00

1,245
1 ,300
1 ,400

Certificated route air carriers only
Spring of:
T967- ..................................................
1968 ..................................................
1969 (est.)
.....................................
1970 (est.)
.....................................

3 1,1 00
3 2 ,5 0 0
3 3 ,9 0 0
3 5,3 00

2 9 ,9 8 0
3 1 ,3 3 0
3 2 ,6 8 0
3 4 ,0 3 0

1,120
1 ,170
1 ,220
1 ,270

Peak of:
1967 ..................................................
1968 (est.)
.....................................
1970 (est.)
.....................................

3 2 ,8 0 0
3 4 ,2 0 0
3 7 ,1 0 0

3 1 ,6 2 0
3 2 ,9 7 0
3 5 ,7 7 0

1 ,180
1,230
1 ,330

SOU RCE: Total em ploym ent as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES
survey sample data.

copilots, excluding flight instructors; flight instructors;
and pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructors, who
are also flight engineers (tables 5, 6, 7, and 8).
Of the 33,100 pilots and copilots employed by all
civil air carriers in spring 1967, 1,190 (or 3.6 percent)
were flight instructors. Estimates indicate that em­
ployers expected to add about 160 by the spring of
1970, and that peak 1970 flight instructor employment
would be 155 above the peak of 1967. The expansion of
flight instructor employment was expected to proceed at
about the same rate as that for all other pilots as table 7
shows.
Nearly a third (31 percent) of all pilots and copilots,
excluding flight instructors, employed by route air
carriers in spring 1968 were also qualified flight engi­
neers. The figures in table 8 reflect fairly accurately a
cockpit manning pattern consisting of a crew of three
pilots, of whom at least one is also a flight engineer. No
change in the ratio of pilot/flight engineers (or second
officers, as they are sometimes called) to all pilots was
contemplated by route carriers throughout the 1967-70
period under review.
Route airlines employed 9,420 pilot/engineers in the
spring of 1967 and expected to add an estimated 1,230
by spring 1970. At the estimated peak of pilot employ13
Defense.

Excluding civilian employees o f the Department o f

S O U R C E : Based on table 3.




5

PILOTS
Ta b le 6. C ivil air carriers, changes in e m p lo ym e nt over specified periods,
b y ty p e o f p ilo t, 1967-70

Increases in number employed
Pilots and copilots
Date
Including
flight
instructors

Excluding
flight
instructors

Flight
instructors

A ll air carriers
Spring of:
1967-68 ............................................
1968-69 (est.)
..............................
1969-70 (est.)
..............................
1967-70 (est.)
..............................

1,400
1,500
1,400
4 ,3 0 0

1,345
1,445
1,350
4 ,1 4 0

55
55
50
160

Peak of:
1967-68 (est.)
1968-70 (est.)
1967-70 (est.)

1,400
3 ,1 0 0
4 ,5 0 0

1,345
3 ,0 0 0
4,3 4 5

55
100
155

..............................
..............................
..............................

Certificated route air carriers only
Spring of:
1967-68 ............................................
1968-69 (est.)
..............................
1969-70 (est.)
..............................
1967-70 (est.)
..............................

1,400
1,400
1,400
4 ,2 0 0

1,350
1,350
1,350
4 ,0 5 0

50
50
50
150

Peak of:
1967-68 (est.)
1968-70 (^Tt)
1967-70 (est.)

1,400
2 ,9 0 0
4 ,3 0 0

1,350
2,8 0 0
4 ,1 5 0

50
100
150

..............................
..............................
..............................

1967 and peak 1970 (table 10). Numerically, the
greatest increases were scheduled for executive transpor­
tation, pilot schools, and air taxi operations, many of
which also double as schools. Contemplated increases for
other general aviation sectors, while relatively small in
number, represented substantial proportional expansion.
Industrial/special operators, for example, expected to
add an estimated 660, for a more than 40-percent
increase in pilot employment. The contemplated addi­
tion of roughly 150 to 550 pilots by peak 1970 in each
of the other general aviation sectors would represent
about a one-fourth increase in each pilot work force
above peak 1967.
Rough estimates of the average annual growth re­
quirement for pilots in each of the general aviation
sectors, for the 3 peak years 1967-70, based on
employers’ reports, indicate that about 2,500 of the
estimated total demand of 3,700 a year would arise from
the expansion plans of executive transportation and air
taxi operations combined. The next largest requirement,
600 a year, would be for pilot instructors at schools. A
summary tabulation follows:

SOU RCE: Based on table 5.

ment during 1970, a total of approximately 10,650
pilot/flight engineers, or 1,290 more than at peak 1967,
would be employed. This would represent an average
annual increase of about 400 over the 3-year period.
Several major airlines reported that they engaged
professional flight engineers or flight navigators who
were not qualified pilots.
G eneral aviation p ilo ts , b y in d u stry secto r. Nearly 44
percent of the estimated 31,800 professional pilots
employed in the general aviation division of the civil
aviation industry in 1968 were engaged in executive
transportation activities (table 9). Air taxi operations
accounted for about a fourth (24 percent) and instruc­
tional activities at pijot flight and ground schools for 13
percent. Firms engaged in aerial application, such as crop
dusting, and in industrial/special activities, such as
pipeline patrolling, each employed about 5 percent of all
general aviation pilots. State and local government and
nondefense Federal agency flying activities accounted
for more than 2,000 pilots, or nearly 7 percent of the
total. Repair stations engaged 650, or 2 percent of the
estimated total, for checking out and testing aircraft.
Sharp employment increases to peak 1970, assuming
the availability of pilots for jobs in general aviation, were
planned by all sectors. All general aviation firms com­
bined hoped to expand their pilot work forces by an
estimated 11,000, or more than a third, between peak

6




General aviation
industry sector

E stim ated average
annual requirem ent
fo r contem plated
expansion o f p ilo t
em ploy men t, 196 7- 70

Executive tr a n sp o rta tio n ....................................
Air t a x i s ....................................................................
Flight and ground schools .................................
Industrial/special....................................................
Government (n o n m ilita r y ).................................
Aerial application .................................................
Repair s t a t io n s .......................................................
Total

....................................................

1,300
1,200
600
220
190
160
60
3,730

Not all sectors, of course, would require the same
kinds of pilots. As executive transportation and air taxi
operators increase their use of larger and more sophisti­
cated aircraft, they will need more pilots trained on this
kind of equipment. On the other hand, a good part of
the demand in industrial/special work, for example,
would be for helicopter pilots, and aerial application
companies would need specialized pilots well-trained in
agricultural flying activities.
Pilot certification to fly specified
types of aircraft

Of the total of 66,260 pilots employed in the civil
aviation industry in the spring of 1968, 61,255, or 92.4
percent, were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only;
815, or 1.2 percent, were certified to fly helicopters

only; and 4,190, or 6.3 percent, were certified to fly
both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, according to
estimates based on the USTES survey of employers
(table 11). More than 97 percent of the pilots employed
by air carriers had fixed-wing certification only, while
the corresponding proportion for general aviation firms
was about 87 percent, with 2.5 percent certified to fly
helicopters only, and about 10 percent certified to fly
both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.
There was considerable variation among the sectors of
the general aviation division of the industry in the type
of certification held by employed pilots. The propor­
tions of pilots with only fixed-wing certification ranged
from around 90 percent in executive transportation,
pilot schools, and nonmilitary government agencies,
down to 40 percent in industrial/special activities, of
which about 28 percent were certified to fly helicopters
only, and 32 percent to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and
helicopters. In no other sector did helicopter-only
certification bulk nearly so large, ranging from 0.7
percent in nonmilitary government to 3 percent in repair
stations. However, in all other general aviation sectors,
sizable proportions of all pilots (ranging from 7 to 12
percent) were certified to fly both fixed-wing aircraft
and helicopters.
Asked to estimate the distribution of their antici­
pated peak 1970 employment as between fixed-wing and
PILOTS
T a b le 7. C iv il air carriers, percentage change in e m p lo y m e n t
over sp ecified p erio d , b y ty p e o f p ilo t, 19 67-70

Percent change in em ploym ent
Pilots and copilots
Date

Including
flight
instructors

Excluding
flight
instructors

Flight
instructors

A ll air carriers
Spring of:
1967-68 ............................................
1 968-69 (est.)
...............................
1 96 9-70 (est.)
...............................
1 96 7-70 (est.)
...............................

4 .2
4 .3
3.9
13.0

4 .2
4 .3
3.7
13.0

4 .6
4 .4
3.8
13.4

Peak of:
1 967-68 (est.)
1 9 6 8-70 (est.)
196 7-70 (est.)

4 .0
8 .5
12.9

4 .0
8 .6
12.9

4 .4
7.7
12.4

...............................
...............................
...............................

Certificated route air carriers only
Spring of:
1 967-68 ............................................
1 96 8-69 (est.)
...............................
1 96 9-70 (est.)
...............................
1 96 7-70 (est.)
...............................

4.5
4 .3
4.1
13.5

4.5
4 .3
4.1
13.5

4.5
4 .3
4.1
13.4

Peak of:
196 7-68 (est.)
1 9 6 8-70 (est.)
1 96 7-70 (est.)

4 .3
8 .5
13.1

4 .3
8 .5
13.1

4 .2
8.1
12.7

...............................
........................
...............................

S O U R C E : Based on table 5.




PILOTS
T a b le 8. C iv il a ir carriers, ra tio o f p ilo t/ flig h t engineers
to all p ilo ts, 19 67-70

Pilots and copilots, excl. flig h t instructorsDate
To ta l
. number

Who are also flight engineers
N um ber

||

Percent o f total

A ll air carriers
Spring of:
1967 ...................................................
1968 ...................................................
196 9 (est.)
......................................
1 9 7 0 (est.)
......................................

3 1 ,9 1 0
3 3 ,2 5 5
3 4 ,7 0 0
3 6 ,0 5 0

9 ,5 4 0
9 ,9 4 0
1 0 ,3 6 0
1 0,7 90

2 9 .9
2 9 .9
2 9.9
2 9 .9

Peak of:
1967 ...................................................
1968 (est.)
......................................
1 97 0 (est.)
......................................

3 3 ,6 5 5
3 5 .0 0 0
3 8 .0 0 0

1 0,0 40
1 0,4 60
1 1,3 50

2 9.8
2 9 .9
2 9 .9

Certificated route air carriers only
Spring of:
1967 ...................................................
1968 ...................................................
196 9 (est.)
.....................................
.....................................
197 0 (est.)

2 9 ,9 8 0
3 1 ,3 3 0
3 2 ,6 8 0
3 4 ,0 3 0

9 ,4 2 0
9 ,8 1 5
1 0 ,2 30
1 0 ,6 50

3 1 .4
3 1 .3
3 1 .3
3 1 .3

Peak of:
1967 ...................................................
1968 (est.)
......................................
1 9 7 0 (est.)
.....................................

3 1 ,6 2 0
3 2 ,9 7 0
3 5 ,7 7 0

9 ,9 2 0
1 0,3 30
1 1,2 10

3 1 .4
3 1 .3
3 1 .3

S O U R C E : Total em ploym ent as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES
survey sample data.

helicopter pilots, civil aviation firms as a whole placed
fixed-wing pilots at 95 percent of the prospective total
and helicopter pilots at 5 percent (table 12). Route
carriers, of which only a few are helicopter airlines,
expected to have about 200 helicopter pilots out of an
estimated total pilot employment of approximately
37,000. The employment of helicopter pilots in general
aviation, on the other hand, was expected to total an
estimated 4,000, or 9.5 percent of a prospective 42,000,
at peak 1970. The executive transportation and air taxi
sectors each anticipated having about 900 helicopter
pilots on their payrolls, and industrial/special companies
expected that about 1,500, or two-thirds, of their
employed pilots would be qualified to fly helicopters,
according to estimates based on the survey sample.
More detailed breakdowns, by type of pilot as well as
by type of certification, are available from the survey for
air carriers only (tables 13 and 14). They indicate that,
both in 1968 and at estimated prospective peak employ­
ment in 1970, there is virtually no difference between
flight instructors and all other pilots in the distribution
of employees by type of certification. In the spring of
1968, of 33,255 noninstructor pilots and copilots
employed by air carriers, 97.3 percent were certified to
fly fixed-wing aircraft only, 0.1 percent were certified to
fly helicopters only, and 2.6 percent were certified to fly
both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The corre­
sponding proportions for flight instructors were almost
7

identical. By peak 1970, air carriers expected that 99.4
percent of their projected total noninstructor pilot
complement would consist of fixed-wing pilots and that
0.6 percent would be helicopter pilots. The correspond­
ing proportions for instructors were, again, almost
identical.
Ratings held by pilots

Airline transport ratings (ATR’s) were held by 43
percent of all employed civil aviation pilots in the spring
of 1968, while for 56 percent the highest rating held was
commercial (table 15). The proportion of pilots holding
A T R ’s was considerably higher for carriers—49
percent—than for general aviation—about 36 percent.
Conversely, about half of all air carrier pilots had ratings
no higher than commercial. These were, presumably,
functioning as copilots or second officers. The propor­
tion of commercial rating holders in general aviation was
62 percent, with 2 percent of the total having other
ratings, mainly helicopter or instructor, as their highest.
Variations among general aviation sectors in the
proportion of employed pilots with ATR’s was ex­

tremely wide, ranging from 2 percent in aerial applica­
tion to 57.5 percent in executive transportation, a higher
proportion than that reported for carriers, as might be
expected where there is frequently only one pilot in the
cockpit. Roughly 80-90 percent of pilots employed in
air taxi, aerial application, industrial/special, and instruc­
tional activities held no more than a commercial
certificate, as did 58 percent of nonmilitary government
pilots.
Viewed another way, as in table 16, about 60 percent
of the 28,360 ATR’s employed in 1968 worked for civil
air carriers, with more than 56 percent of the total
employed by certificated route airlines. General aviation
activities employed 40 percent of all employed ATR’s,
with executive transportation accounting for 28 percent
of the civil aviation total.
Of the 37,250 employed pilots whose highest rating
was commercial, 47 percent were employed by carriers
of all types and about 44 percent by certificated route
airlines. About 16 percent were engaged in the air taxi
business, more than 15 percent in executive transporta-

Pl LO T S
Table 9. General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70

Date

Total

Executive
transportation

Air
taxi

Aerial
application

I ndustrial/
special

Flight and
ground
schools

Government^

Repair
stations

Number employed
Spring of:
1967 ..........................
1968 ..........................
1969 (est.) ...............
1970 (est.) ...............

27,000
31,800
35,100
38,000

11,900
13,900
14,770
15,520

6,200
7,640
9,110
9,970

1,500
1,750
1,900
2,110

1,500
1,620
1,680
2,070

3,300
4,100
4,600
5,200

2,000
2,140
2,300
2,400

600
650
710
730

Peak of:
1967 ..........................
1968 (est.) ...............
1970 (est.) ................

31,100
34,300
42,200

13,400
14,200
17,230

7,500
8,680
11,070

1,880
2,020
2,350

1,630
1,770
2,300

3,950
4,570
5,780

2,100
2,350
2,660

640
710
810

Percentage distribution
Spring of:
1967 ..........................
1968 ..........................
1969 (est.) ...............
1970 (est.) ...............

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

44.1
43.7
42.1
40.8

23.0
24.0
26.0
26.2

5.5
5.5
5.4
5.6

5.5
5.1
4.8
5.4

12.2
12.9
13.1
13.7

7.4
6.7
6.6
6.3

2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9

Peak of:
1967 ...........................
1968 (est.) ...............
1970 (est.) ...............

100.0
100.0
100.0

43.1
41.4
40.8

24.1
25.3
26.2

6.0
5.9
5.6

5.2
5.2
5.5

12.7
13.3
13.7

6.8
6.9
6.3

2.1
2.1
1.9

-^E xcluding D epartm ent of Defense.
S O U R C E : See table 1.

8




PILOTS
Table 10. General aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry sector, 1967-70

Date

Total

Executive
transportation

Air
taxi

Aerial
application

Industrial/
special

Flight and
ground
schools

Government-^

Repair
stations

Increase in number employed
Spring of:
1967-68
1968-69
1969-70
1967-70

.....................
(est.)
....
(est.)
....
(est.)
....

Peak of:
1967-68 (est.)
1968-70 (est.)
1967-70 (est.)

....
....
....

4,800
3,300
2,900
11,000

2,000
870
750
3,620

1,440
1,470
860
3,770

250
150
210
610

120
60
390
570

800
500
600
1,900

140
160
100
400

50
60
20
130

3,200
7,900
11,100

800
3,030
3,830

1,180
2,390
3,570

140
330
470

130
530
660

610
1,210
1,820

250
310
560

70
100
170

Percentage increase
Spring of:
1967-68
1968-69
1969-70
1967-70

.....................
(est.)
....
(est.)
....
(est.)
....

Peak of:
1967-68 (est.)
1968-70 (est.)
1967-70 (est.)

....
....
....

17.8
10.4
8. 3
40.7

16.8
6.3
5.1
30.4

23.2
19.2
9. 4
60.8

16.6
8.6
11.1
40.7

8.0
3.7
23.2
38.0

24.2
12.2
13.4
57.6

7.0
7.5
4.3
20.0

8.3
9.2
2.8
21.7

10.3
23.0
35.7

6.0
21.3
28.6

15.7
27.5
47.6

7.4
16.3
25.0

8.6
29.9
41.1

15.7
26.5
46.3

11.9
13.2
26.7

10.9
14.1
26.6

S O U R C E : Based on table 9.

tion, 8.6 percent in instructional flying, and 3-4 percent
in each of the other sectors of general aviation, except
repair stations where the proportion was lower.
All but a few of the 650 employed pilots whose
highest rating was other than airline transport or
commercial (mainly instructor or helicopter) were in
general aviation, with 25 percent of the total in air taxi
operations, about 22 percent in aerial application, 18.5
percent in executive transportation, and 14 percent in
both flight and ground schools and nonmilitary govern­
ment.
The USTES April/May 1968 survey of employers also
gathered information on the number of employed pilots
whose highest rating was commercial who also held
instrument ratings. Estimates based on the survey sample
are shown in table 17. According to these estimates, for
all civil aviation activities combined, close to 32,300
pilots out of a total of 37,250 whose highest rating was
commercial, or nearly 87 percent, also held instrument
ratings. Virtually all carrier pilots whose highest rating
was commercial, whether these are considered to include
or exclude flight instructors, also held instrument
ratings. The corresponding proportion for all general




aviation pilots was 75 percent. It was 75 percent or more
in each sector of general aviation except aerial applica­
tion and industrial/special where, presumably, an instru­
ment rating is less essential for the work performed.
More detailed estimates, for air carriers only, in which
the highest ratings held are related to the various types
of pilots employed, are shown in table 18. From this it
may be seen, for example, that an estimated 49 percent
of the 31,330 pilots and copilots, excluding flight
instructors, employed in the spring of 1968 by certifi­
cated route carriers held air transport ratings, whereas
for 51 percent the highest rating held was commercial.
The distribution of flight instructor employment by
type of rating held was virtually the same as that for all
other pilots. Of the 31,330 route carrier pilots and
copilots who were not flight instructors, about 9,800
were pilot/flight engineers (second officers). Nearly half
of these held air transport ratings.
Pilots age 50 years and over

The age of employed pilots is one of the significant
factors to be considered in estimating the probable level
of new pilot hires to be required as the result of attrition
9

through retirement or death. Most air carrier pilots aged
50 and over are approaching retirement age, since
Federal Aviation Administration Regulation 121, Part
383, stipulates that the use of the services of pilots who
have reached their 60th birthday is not permitted on
scheduled air carriers. Moreover, most airline pilots have
the option to choose early retirement at age 55. No age
limitations are imposed by the Federal Government on
pilots employed by nonscheduled air carriers or by
general aviation firms.
It is estimated that about 11 percent of all pilots
employed in the civil aviation industry in the spring of
1968 were 50 years of age or over (table 19). The
preference of air carriers, as distinguished from the
general aviation division of the industry, for younger
pilots, as well as the effect of the airlines’ early

retirement provisions, are reflected in the figures. Only
9.4 percent of carrier pilots were in the 50-years-or-over
category, compared with 12.6 percent in general avia­
tion. Among the general aviation industry sectors, the
use of older pilots ranged from 7.4 percent of all those
employed in industrial/special flying to 18.7 percent in
nonmilitary government.
Of the 7,265 employed pilots aged 50 years and over
in the spring of 1968, about 3,260 were employed by
carriers and about 4,000 were in general aviation.
Carriers accounted for 52 percent of all the pilots
employed in civil aviation in the spring of 1968, but for
only about 45 percent of those aged 50 and over. Route
carriers, with 49 percent of all pilots, employed 42
percent of the older ones. General aviation employed 48
percent of all civil aviation pilots, but 55 percent of

PILOTS
Table 11. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution* o f employed pilots
certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division and sector, spring 1968

Industry division/sector

All pilots
and
copilots1'

Certified to fly Fixed-wing
only

Helicopter
only

Fixed-wing
and helicopter

Number employed
Grand total...........................................................................................

66,260

61,255

815

4,190

Civil air carriers, to ta l.........................................................................
Certificated ro u te .........................................................................
O th e rs ...........................................................................................

34,500
32,500
2,000

33,555
31,610
1,945

35
35
(2/)

910
855
55

General aviation, t o t a l ......................................................................
Executive transportation..............................................................
Air t a x i............................. .............................................................
Aerial application.........................................................................
1ndustrial/special.........................................................................
Flight and ground schools...........................................................
Government..................................................................................
Repair stations ............................................................................

31,760
13,880
7,640
1,750
1,620
4,080
2,140
650

27,700
12,680
6,660
1,510
640
3,680
1,980
550

780
140
80
30
460
40
15
20

3,280
1,060
900
210
520
360
145
80

Percentage distribution
.............................................................. ........................

100.0

92.4

1.2

6.3

Civil air carriers, to ta l.........................................................................
Certificated ro u te ..........................................................................
O th e rs ...........................................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

97.3
97.3
97.3

0.1
0.1
-

2.6
2.6
2.8

General aviation, t o t a l ......................................................................
Executive transportation..............................................................
Air t a x i............................. .............................................................
Aerial application.........................................................................
Industrial/special.........................................................................
Flight and ground schools...........................................................
Government..................................................................................
Repair stations...............................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

87.2
91.4
87.2
86.3
39.5
90.2
92.5
84.6

2.5
1.0
1.0
1.7
28.4
1.0
0.7
3.1

10.3
7.6
11.8
12.0
32.1
8.8
6.8
12.3

Grand total

^ In c lu d in g flight instructors.
-'F e w e r than 5.
S O U R C E : Total em ploym ent as shown In tables 3 and 9 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data.

10




those in the 50-years-and-over age bracket. A fourth of
the 7,265 older civil pilots were engaged in executive
transportation and about an eighth in air taxi activities.

PILOTS
Table 12. All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing
and helicopter pilots, by industry division and sector,
anticipated employment at peak 1970
A n tic ip a te d e m p lo y m e n t a t peak 1 9 7 0

Hours flown by pilots
In d u s try d ivisio n /secto r

Pilots and copilots employed in the civil aviation
industry flew an estimated total of 32,355,000 hours in
the year ending April/May 1968 (see table 20). For the
entire industry combined, this amounted to an average
of 512 flight hours per pilot.
Air carriers accounted for 17.4 million, or about 54
percent, of the estimated total number of hours flown.
Approximately 16.4 million hours, or just half of the
grand total, were flown by route airline pilots, whereas
nearly 15 million hours, or 46 percent of the grand total,
were logged by general aviation pilots. Executive trans­
portation and air taxi pilots combined flew more than
10 million hours, nearly a third of the total for all civil
aviation.
Pilots and copilots employed by certificated route air
carriers, where maximum monthly flight time per pilot is
regulated by both the FAA and union agreements, flew,
on the average, 515 hours during the year. If flight
instructors are eliminated from the total for route
carriers, the average for the remaining pilots rises to 522
hours. Flight instructors employed by route carriers flew
an average of only 344 hours, indicating perhaps that
much of the on-the-job flight instruction was given on
the ground.
All general aviation pilots combined averaged 509
flight hours during the year, but there was extremely
wide variation among the component sectors of the
industry division. Average utilization of pilot time
appeared to be much higher in the air taxi industry (763
hours flown per pilot) and in the flying schools (708
hours), than in executive transportation (407 hours), or
in any of the other general aviation sectors, in which
average annual hours flown ranged downward to 208 in
nondefense government activities and 166 in industrial/
special operations. Only in air taxi and flying school
activities and at repair stations did the average annual
hours flown exceed the average for pilots and copilots
employed by route carriers. But the excess, for the first
two of these sectors, was very large—40 to 50 percent.
Pilot supply

Evaluation of the supply of pilots available to the
civil aviation industry may be considered from various
viewpoints—in terms of supply available to each of the
two major divisions of the industry (airlines and general
aviation), in terms of the output of the two major




A ll pilo ts
and
c o p ilo ts ^

F ixe d -w in g
pilo ts

H e lic o p te r
p ilo ts

N u m b e r o f em ployees
G ran d t o t a l ..................................................

8 1 ,6 0 0

7 7 ,3 8 0

4 ,2 1 5

C ivil air carriers, t o t a l ............................
C e rtific a te d r o u t e .............................
O t h e r s ..................................................

3 9 ,4 0 0
3 7 ,1 0 0
2 ,3 0 0

3 9 ,1 8 0
3 6 ,9 1 0
2 ,2 7 0

215
205
10

G eneral a via tio n , t o t a l .........................
E xe c u tive tr a n s p o r ta tio n ..............
A ir t a x i ..................................................
A e rial a p p lic a t io n ............................
In d u s tr ia l/s p e c ia l............................

4 2 ,2 0 0
1 7 ,2 3 0
1 1 ,0 7 0
2 ,3 5 0
2 ,3 0 0
5 ,7 8 0

3 8 ,2 0 0
1 6 ,3 5 0
1 0 ,1 6 0
2 ,1 2 0
760
5 ,5 8 0
2 ,5 2 0
710

4 ,0 0 0
880
910
230
1 ,5 4 0
200
140
100

F lig h t and ground schools . . . .
G o v e r n m e n t .......................................
R ep air s ta tio n s ....................................

2 ,6 6 0
810

Percentage d istrib u tio n
G ran d t o t a l ..............................................

1 0 0 .0

9 4 .8

5 .2

Civil air carriers, t o t a l ............................
C e rtific a te d r o u t e .........................
O t h e r s ..............................................

1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0

9 9 .4
9 9 .5
9 8 .7

0 .5
0 .6
0 .4

General aviatio n t o t a l ............................

1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0

9 0 .5

9 .5
5.1
8 .2
9 .8
6 7 .0
3 .5
5 .3
1 2 .3

E xe c u tive tr a n s p o r ta tio n ..............
A ir t a x i ..................................................
A e rial a p p lic a t io n .............................
In d u s tr ia l/s p e c ia l............................
F lig h t and ground schools . . . .
G o v e r n m e n t .......................................
R epair s ta tio n s ....................................

9 4 .9
9 1 .8
9 0 .2
3 3 .0
9 6 .5
9 4 .7
8 7 .7

^ In c lu d in g flig h t instructors.
S O U R C E : T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t as shown in tables 3 and 9 d is trib u te d on basis o f
U S T E S survey sam ple data.

sources of supply (civilian and military), or in terms of
the type of pilot involved (sophisticated aircraft, light
aircraft, helicopter, etc.). Supply in the context of each
of these approaches is discussed briefly below.
The airlines prefer to hire military trained, young
pilots (under 35 years of age) who have had considerable
experience in flying heavy aircraft and, secondarily, apt,
civilian-trained, young, commercial-rated pilots who
have logged at least 1,000 flight hours, preferably on
heavy equipment. Hiring specifications in regard to
physical condition and educational achievement are very
high. Because of union seniority rules, both types of
recruit are started at the bottom of the promotional
ladder, no matter what their previous experience, and
are assigned, at the beginning, to the lightest, cheapest,
and least sophisticated aircraft. Reportedly, training
(largely orientation) of these types of pilots for these
entry jobs, which is provided by the airlines, requires
only a few months or less, whether the pilot has a
military or a civilian background.
General aviation sectors with relatively high propor­
tions of heavy and sophisticated equipment, such as
executive transport and air taxis, also look to the
military and to qualified civilian-trained pilots, but are
11

PILOTS
Table 13. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots certified to
fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division, spring 1968

Certified to fly 1ndustry division

Total
pilots

Fixed-wing
only

Helicopter
only

Fixed-wing and
helicopter

Number employed
All civil air carriers
All pilots and co p ilo ts ........................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . .
Flight instructors................................................

34,500
33,255
1,245

33,555
32,345
1,210

35
35
(1/)

910
875
35

Certificated route carriers
All pilots and c o p ilo ts ........................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . .
Flight instructors................................................

32,500
31,330
1,170

31,610
30,470
1,140

35
35
(1/)

855
825
30

Percentage distribution
All civil air carriers
All pilots and co p ilo ts ........................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . .
Flight instructors................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

97.3
97.3
97.2

0.1
0.1
-

2.6
2.6
2.8

Certificated route carriers
All pilots and c o p ilo ts ......................... ..
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . .
Flight instructors................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

97.3
97.3
97.4

0.1
0.1
—

2.6
2.6
2.6

-^Fewer than 5.
SOURCE: Total employment as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data.

willing to hire older men, and hiring specifications are
lower. Sectors using light equipment hire any qualified
pilot, particularly if he is trained in a desired specialty
such as, for example, crop dusting.
Viewed another way, young pilots released from the
military services and young civilian commercial pilots
with heavy aircraft experience are the major sources of
supply for the airlines. Older military-trained pilots and
civilian commercial pilots with adequate or specialized
training, not necessarily on heavy equipment, are the
major sources for general aviation.
In terms of pilot type, those with training, experi­
ence, and skill in flying heavy equipment come primarily
from the military services; those with training and skill
in flying light equipment, or in providing specialized
flying services of some kind, come either from the older
military or from civilian training facilities. Helicopter
pilots, for both airlines and general aviation, are an
exception; the military will continue to provide almost
12




all of the helicopter pilots for civil aviation, as it always
has. Flight instructors at schools are, for the most part, a
transient civilian-trained group seeking to log a sufficient
number of flying hours for possible advancement to jobs
on airlines or elsewhere in general aviation. They are
readily available.
A d e q u a c y o f su pply. The relationship o f probable
pilot supply to prospective demand may be viewed from
the same three viewpoints. The overall supply is and
promises to be quite adequate, at least in the short run.
No airline reported a scarcity of qualified pilot recruits
in the USTES survey. General aviation companies, as a
whole, were similarly having no trouble hiring. Some,
however, complained of retention problems. They were
losing their company-trained pilots to the airlines or to
government jobs as soon as they had acquired the
requisite number of flight-hours and training. Others
could not provide their pilots with full-time, steady

employment and, consequently, competitive annual
earnings. Some solved this problem by using their pilots
as mechanics or to give flying instruction, as in many
small taxi operations, in slack periods. Most general
aviation companies, however, were finding it possible to
hire and retain a sufficient number of qualified pilots
who did not meet the high personnel standards of the
airlines and were, perforce, content with general aviation
jobs. A few, notably some of those engaged in aerial
application activities such as crop dusting, were encoun­
tering a stringency in the supply of pilots with the
necessary special qualifications for their particular type
of work.
The supply of pilots with the desired background of
military training appeared to be adequate for current
and short-range future needs. Similarly, civilian training
facilities appeared to be generating a sufficient number
of professional pilots to keep the civil aviation pipeline
filled with prospective recruits.
P ilo t schools . Civilian pilot training facilities, except
on heavy aircraft, are numerous and widely available. As
of January 1, 1968, more than 1,700 flight and ground
schools offered FAA-approved instruction programs to

potential pilots. In addition, there were perhaps as many
as 1,500 noncertificated pilot schools whose course
content and standards met FAA requirements. Many
small general aviation companies, such as air taxis, teach
flying in addition to their other activities, but do not
consider that they are running “schools,” and so are not
counted as such.
The 1,720 FAA-certificated pilot schools as of
January 1968 represented, as table 21 shows, a substan­
tial increase in number over the 1,182 in December
1965,14 and there is every indication that this growth is
continuing to the present time. Certification by FAA
depends not on the size of the school, but on quality of
curriculum, including actual course content, facilities,
and equipment, as well as on qualification of instructors.
Approved schools range from operations with one
part-time teacher to universities offering professional
pilot courses entailing 4 years of intense study and flight
training. By January 1, 1968, there were 65 FAAapproved schools being operated by, or in conjunction
14
There were 953 FAA-approved schools offering flight
training in 1963, and 994 in 1964, according to FAA, “Project
Long Look,” op. cit., p. 94.

PILOTS
Table 14.

Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and

helicopter pilots, by industry division, anticipated employment at peak 1970

Anticip. empl. at peak 1970
Industry division

Total
pilots

Fixed-wing
pilots

Helicopter
pilots

Number of employees
All civil air carriers
All pilots and c o p ilo ts ...................................................................................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors.................................................................
Flight instructors............................................................................................................

39,400
38,000
1,400

39,185
37,790
1,395

215
210
5

Certificated route carriers
All pilots and c o p ilo ts ....................................................................................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors.................................................................
Flight instructors......................................... ...................................................................

37,100
35,780
1,320

36,895
35,580
1,315

205
200
5

Percentage distribution
All civil air carriers
All pilots and c o p ilo ts ....................................................................................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors.................................................................
Flight instructors............................................................................ □ .............................

100.0
100.0
100.0

99.5
99.4
99.6

0.5
0.6
0.4

Certificated route carriers
All pilots and c o p ilo ts ....................................................................................................
Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors
Flight instructors.............................................................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

99.4
95.9
99.6

0.6
0.5
0.4

SOURCE:

T o tal em ploym ent as shown In table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data.




13

with, an accredited college or university. About 185
schools had attained sufficient stature to be granted
examining authority. But the vast majority were small
enterprises with a few pupils, conducted on a part-time
basis at small fields in relatively light aircraft, frequently
in conjunction with other commercial operations which
constituted the main business.
Flight and ground training for pilots at certificated
schools is widely available on a geographic basis, as
shown in table 22. California had the largest number
(235) in any one State in January 1968, with Texas
second (142), and New York third (80). But each of the
other 47 States and the District of Columbia had a
substantial number in relation to its size, ranging from 2

in the District of Columbia to 66 in Pennsylvania. All 27
labor areas for which the USTES received reports in the
spring of 1968 indicated that they had adequate training
facilities for pilots.
The schools offered a broad range of instruction,
from elementary flight and ground courses through
programs for flight instructors and commercial flying
with instruments, as table 22 also shows. Altogether, a
total of 7,025 instruction programs were authorized for
the 1,720 certificated schools. About 1,600 of these
FAA authorizations, or ratings, applied to basic and
advanced ground school programs; 2,864 to primary and
commercial airplane flying programs; 1,108 to instru­
ment flying programs; and 1,257 to flight instructor

PILOTS
Table 15. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by
highest rating held, by industry division and sector, spring 1968

Industry division/sector

All pilots
and copilots

Pilots and copilots whose
highest rating wasAirline
transport

Commercial

Other
ratingl/

Number employed
Grand to tal..........................................................................................................

66,260

28,360

37,250

650

Air carriers, t o t a l ..............................................................................................
Certificated ro u te ........................................................................................
O th e rs .........................................................................................................

34,500
32,500
2,000

16,990
16,000
990

17,510
16,500
1,010

&)
&)

General aviation, total . . . .
...........................................................
Executive transportation ............................................................................
Air t a x i.........................................................................................................
Aerial application........................................................................................
1ndustr ial/special............................. .. .......................................................
Flight and ground schools.........................................................................
Government................................................................................................
Repair stations ...........................................................................................

31,760
13,880
7,640
1,750
1,620
4,080
2,140
650

11,375
7,980
1,360
35
310
770
800
120

19,740
5,780
6,120
1,570
1,300
3,220
1,250
500

645
120
160
145
10
90
90
30

(2/)

Percentage distribution
Grand to tal.........................................................................................................

100.0

42.8

56.2

Air carriers, t o t a l ..............................................................................................
Certificated ro u te........................................................................................
O th e rs .........................................................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

49.2
49.2
49.5

50.8
50.8
50.5

General aviation, t o t a l .....................................................................................
Executive transportation............................................................................
Air t a x i..........................................................................................................
Aerial application ........................................................................................
1ndustrial/special........................................................................................
Flight and ground schools.........................................................................
Government.................................................................................................
Repair stations ...........................................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

35.8
57.5
17.8
2.0
19.1
18.9
37.4
18.5

62.2
41.6
80.1
89.7
80.3
78.9
58.4
76.9

^ M a in ly instructor or helicopter.
-'F e w e r than 5.
S O U R C E : E m ploym ent totals as shown In tables 3 and 9 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data.

14




1.0
—
-

2.0
0.9
2.1
8.3
0.6
2.2
4.2
4.6

PILOTS
Table 16.

A ll civil aviation, percentage distribution of airline transport rated and

commercial rated pilots, by industry division and sector, spring 1968

All pilots
and copilots

Industry division/sector

Pilots and copilots whose
highest rating was-Airline
transport

Commercial

Other
rating

Grand to tal................................................................... ......................................

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Air carriers, t o t a l .............................................................................................
Certificated ro u te.................................................... „ .............................
O th e rs ............................................

52.1
49.0
3.0

59.9
56.4
3.5

47.0
44.3
2.7

0.8
—
-

General aviation, t o t a l ....................................................................................
Executive transportation...........................................................................
Air t a x i.........................................................................................................
Aerial application........................................................................................
1ndustrial/special.......................................................................................
Flight and ground schools.........................................................................
Government................................ ................. * ■ ........................................
Repair stations .......................... ................................................................

47.9
20.9
11.5
2.6
2.4
6.2
3.2
1.0

40.1
28.1
4.8
0.1
1.1
2.7
2.8
0.4

53.0
15.5
16.4
4.2
3.5
8.6
3.4
1.3

99.2
18.5
24.6
22.3
1.5
13.8
13.8
4.6

S O U R C E : Based on table 15.

programs. Very few schools offered approved training
related to glider and helicopter flying. As previously
noted, the civilian aviation industry depends almost
entirely on the military for its supply of helicopter pilots
because of the high cost of such training. More impor­
tantly, very few schools have or are able to offer training
on jets or other types of heavy, sophisticated equipment
which are used by air carriers, in some executive flying,
and by some air taxis. Where they do offer this type of
training, it is usually by special tie-in arrangement with
companies owning the necessary aircraft and the run­
ways on which to operate them.
G overn m en t aid. The recent sharp increase in the
number, and, in many instances, the capacity of FAAcertiflcated flight schools received its major impetus
from the provisions of the Veterans Pension and
Readjustment Assistance Act of 1967 (Public Law
90-77), effective October 1, 1967. This Act approved
financial assistance by the Veterans Administration for
ex-servicemen who are qualified to take flight training
leading to a commercial pilot’s license. The benefits are
quite liberal—90 percent of established tuition and fee
charges for a period up to 36 months.15
The 1967 GI benefit law represented a drastic change
from the provisions of its 1966 counterpart. The 1966
Act contained a clause specifying that flight training
would be paid for only if it were part of an accredited
college course leading to a degree. The 1967 Act relaxed
the college-course provisions of the 1966 Act, but




substituted others. To qualify for benefits under PL
90-77, a veteran must have been in the military service
for more than 180 days, already possess a private pilot’s
license or the equivalent number of flight hours to earn
such a license, pass a Class II medical examination, and
must take advanced flight training in an FAAcertificated school and only for the purpose of seriously
preparing for a career in civil aviation with, at least, a
commercial pilot’s license. The Act covers an 8-year
period ending August 31,1975.
The response by veterans to the opportunity to
undertake serious career flight training with VA reim­
bursement has been enormous. Many additional schools
have applied for and been granted FAA certification to
become eligible under the program. Moreover, since the
1967 Act became effective, the content of the approved
programs has been enlarged to include special courses for
additional pilot ratings, as well as proficiency courses in
agricultural and specialized helicopter operations for
which no ratings are given. Under amendments to the
regulations governing certification of pilot schools (Part
141 of the Federal Aviation Regulations), FAA will now
approve courses for aircraft class and type ratings, and
for preparation for airline transport pilot certificates,
agricultural flying, and special operations involving
external loads on helicopters, as well as courses leading
15
In addition, the U.S. Office o f Education will lend up to
$1,000 for students taking flight training at certificated schools.
The loan program is open to all students, including those who
cannot fully meet VA criteria.

15

PILOTS
Table 17. A ll civil aviation, employed pilots whose highest rating was
commercial who also held'instrument ratings, spring 1968

C o m m e rc ia l ra ted p ilo ts
In s tru m e n t ra ted

In d u s try d iv is io n /s e cto r

T o ta l
num ber

Num ber

P ercen t
o f to ta l

C iv il a v ia tio n , t o t a l ....................................

3 7 ,2 5 0

3 2 ,2 7 5

8 6 .6

A ll c a r r i e r s ......................................................

1 7 ,5 1 0
1 6 ,8 8 0

1 7 ,4 8 5

9 9 .9
9 9 .9
1 0 0 .0

E x c lu d in g flig h t in s tru cto rs . . . .
F lig h t in s t r u c t o r s .................................
C e rtific a te d r o u te c a r r i e r s ......................

630

1 6 ,8 5 5
630

1 6 ,5 0 0

1 6 ,4 6 5

9 9 .8

. . . .

1 5 ,9 0 0

1 5 ,8 7 5

F lig h t in s t r u c t o r s ................................

600

590

9 9 .8
9 8 .3

G en e ra l a v ia tio n , t o t a l .............................

1 9 ,7 4 0

1 4 ,7 9 0

7 4 .9

E x e c u tiv e tr a n s p o r t a t io n ..................
A i r t a x i ......................................................
- A e ria l a p p l ic a t i o n ................................
1n d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l................................
F lig h t a nd g ro u n d s c h o o l s ..............
G o v e r n m e n t ...........................................
R e p a ir s ta tio n s ........................................

5 ,7 8 0
6 .1 2 0
1 ,5 7 0
1 ,3 0 0
3 ,2 2 0
1 ,2 5 0
500

4 ,7 4 5
4 ,8 0 0
535
605
2 ,6 7 5

8 2 .1
7 8 .4
3 4 .1
4 6 .5
8 3 .1
8 4 .4
7 5 .0

E x c lu d in g flig h t in stru cto rs

1 ,0 5 5
375

S O U R C E : E m p lo y m e n t to ta ls as show n in tables 3 and 9 d is trib u te d on
th e basis o f U S T E S survey sam ple d ata.

to a certificate as a commercial pilot, flight instructor, or
instrument-rated pilot.
By the end of February 1969, according to a VA
survey,16 about 29,400 veterans had completed flight
training of some kind, and 21,370 were enrolled at flight
schools. Schools were enlarging their capacity in antici­
pation of further increases in enrollments of veterans.
S ch o o l graduates as sou rce o f su pply. Evaluation of
flying school graduates as additions to the professional
pilot labor supply involves consideration of two
aspects—numbers and qualifications. Unfortunately,
there are no comprehensive FAA data on the number
who graduate each year with at least a commercial
license, or, more importantly, on the number of these
who enter and remain in the civil aviation industry as
professionals. While estimates based on the USTES
spring 1968 survey of employers show that about
56,000 students were expected to be graduated from
flight and ground schools in 1968, there is every
indication that this figure is highly inflated to the extent
that surveyed schools reported total enrollment rather
than prospective graduates. Moreover, there was no
indication of what type of pilot training these students
had undertaken, for which licenses they were qualifying,
16 Veterans Administration, Department o f Veterans Bene­
fits, unpublished data.
17 N ot including flight and ground schools.

16




nor whether they expected to make a career of aviation
or were simply taking instruction for their private use or
pleasure.
It is quite clear that not all flight school training is to
be construed as adding to the civil aviation industry’s
professional pilot supply. Many students start training
but drop out before completion. A great many others
study only long enough to obtain a private license. Still
others are already licensed commercial pilots merely
seeking additional type or class ratings. For example,
one large school reported in the USTES survey that, out
of 600 pilots to be trained in 1968, 50 sought additional
ratings, 540 sought check outs in various aircraft models,
and only 10 were training for new licenses. It remains to
be seen whether the new VA-supported school program,
oriented as it is toward serious preparation for a civil
aviation career, will eventually produce substantial num­
bers of additional qualified professional pilots.
O n-th e-job training. Some on-the-job training of
pilots was going on in every sector of the civil aviation
industry in 1968. It is estimated, on the basis of
employer reports made in the spring of 1968, that about
25,000 pilots would complete formal company training
programs of some kind during the year. Most of this was
orientation, refresher, upgrading, class, or type training
of experienced pilots. About 5,700 pilots were being
trained by carriers and the remainder by general aviation
firms,17 primarily those in executive transportation and
air taxi operations, many of which provide flight
instruction as a sideline. Some of the training of general
aviation pilots on the larger and more sophisticated
aircraft which were coming into increasing use, espe­
cially in corporate or executive flying, was being
provided by contract with airlines. Some aircraft manu­
facturers were also providing training of employed pilots
on new generations of aircraft as they were put to use.
Conclusions

The potential supply of qualified professional pilots
appears to be quite adequate for the overall needs of the
civil aviation industry, at least for the short-run period
under review. No shortage existed or was contemplated
in employer reports.
School facilities are numerous and widespread.
Unusually good VA benefits are available to veterans
who qualify and are willing to undertake schooling
leading to a professional pilot’s career, and thousands
have taken advantage of the opportunity. Companies are
providing on-the-job training to meet their own particu-

PILOTS
Table 18. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by
highest rating held, by industry division, spring 1968

All pilots
and copilots

Industry division

Pilots and copilots,
excluding flight instructor-Total

Who were also
flight engineers

Flight
instructors

Number employed
All carriers, total..............................................................................................
Airline transport........................................................................................
Commercial. ..............................................................................................
Instrument r a te d ..................................................................................

34,500
16,990
17,510
17,485

33,255
16,375
16,880
16,855

9,940
4,895
5,045
n.a.

1,245
615
630
630

Certificated route carriers, to ta l....................................................................
Airline transport........................................................................................
Com m ercial..............................................................................................
Instrument r a te d ..................................................................................

32,500
16,000
16,500
16,465

31,330
15,430
15,900
15,875

9,815
4,835
4,980
n.a.

1,170
570
600
590

Percentage distribution
All carriers, total ...........................................................................................
Airline transport........................................................................................
Com m ercial..............................................................................................
Instrument r a t e d ..................................................................................

100.0
49.2
50.8
50.7

100.0
49.2
50.8
50.7

100.0
49.2
50.8
n.a.

100.0
49.4
50.6
50.6

Certificated route carriers, to ta l....................................................................
Airline transport........................................................................................
Commercial . ...........................................................................................
Instrument r a t e d ..................................................................................

100.0
49.2
50.8
50.7

100.0
49.2
50.8
50.7

100.0
49.3
50.7
n.a.

100.0
48.7
51.3
50.4

SOURCE:

Em p loym en t totals as shown In table 3 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data.

lar standards and requirements, and there is no lack of
recruits from among either releasees from the military
services or from the civilian labor force.
Although general aviation companies were reportedly
suffering from turnover resulting from the competition
of the airlines for the cream of the trained pilot supply,
this situation promised to ease as airline growth require­
ments tapered off to a plateau through 1970. General
aviation’s ability to hire and retain pilots will depend on




the terms of employment being offered. Airlines have
proven that they can attract the kind of pilot they
desire. An airline pilot career is a desirable one, with
provision for advancement on a seniority basis, and from
the smaller, slower aircraft to the largest and fastest,
with concomitant pay increases and other benefits.
General aviation companies will have to take these
factors into account in seeking to solve their turnover
problems.

17

Chapter III.
Employment trends

A total of 100,500 aircraft mechanics18 were em­
ployed in civil aviation19 in the spring of 1967. By the
spring of 1968, about 5,300 or 5.3 percent more had
been added to payrolls and estimates based on employer
anticipations at that time indicated a prospective even
sharper employment rise of 7,600, or 7.2 percent, by
spring 1969 (tables 23 and 24). The 1969-70 increase,
however, was expected to drop to 4,400, or 3.9 percent.
If reported hiring schedules materialize as planned,
spring 1970 mechanic employment will be an estimated
17,300, or 17.2 percent above spring 1967, and peak
1970 mechanic employment will be approximately
20,000, or 18 percent above the 1967 peak. This would
represent an average 3-year requirement of roughly
6,700 a year for expansion purposes alone, not including
the need for replacement of workers who leave the
industry for one reason or another.
As in the case of pilots, the major part of the demand
for additional mechanics is attributable to the antici­
pated growth requirements of general aviation com­
panies. Aircraft mechanic employment in general avia­
tion totaled 51,500 in spring 1967. By spring 1968 this
total had risen by 3,300, or 6.4 percent, to 54,800.
Employers expected it to rise 5,600, or about 10 percent
more, to 60,400 by the spring of 1969. Although
between 1969 and 1970 the demand for general aviation
aircraft mechanics was expected to be less than half that
of the previous year, dropping to 2,400 or 4.0 percent,
spring 1970 employment was expected to total 62,800,
about 11,300 or 22 percent above spring 1967, accord­
ing to estimates based on employers’ reports to the
USTES. The peak 1967 to peak 1970 growth require­
ments estimate was even higher—13,400 or 23 percent
over the 3-year period. On the basis of these estimates,
the average annual 1967-70 demand for aircraft
mechanics by the general aviation industry for expansion
purposes alone appears to be in the neighborhood of
4,500 a year.
Air carrier demand was expected to be less than half
of this. Carriers employed 49,000 mechanics in spring
1967, had added 2,000 (or 4 percent) by spring 1968,
and expected to continue to add about 2,000 (or
roughly 4 percent) a year through 1970, for a total
expansion of 6,000, or about 12 percent over the 3-year
period. At peak 1970, air carrier mechanic employment
was expected to total approximately 60,000, and to be
only 6,500 or 12.2 percent above peak 1967.
18




Mechanics
Route airlines, both scheduled and nonscheduled,
accounted for 96 percent of all air carrier mechanic
employment and for virtually all of the estimated
prospective employment increases. Other types of
carriers (supplemental and commercial operator) ex­
pected to add only about 200 mechanics between peak
1967 and peak 1970.
While strictly comparable historical data are not
available, closely related figures, including maintenance
workers as well as mechanics, which are compiled each
year by the Federal Aviation Administration,20 indicate
that the prospective 2000-a-year growth requirement for
aircraft mechanics by certificated route airlines in 1969
and 1970 would represent a continued leveling off in the
rapid employment expansion which had been going on
since 1964. The 1963-64 increase in the employment of
mechanics and maintenance workers was 4,900. Com­
parable year-to-year changes for the years through 1968
were approximately as follows: 1964-65, 2,300;
1965-66, 3,660; 1966-67, 4,700; 1967-68, 2,000.
If all plans for the expansion of mechanic employ­
ment through 1970 are realized, the general aviation
division will employ, at that time, an even larger
proportion of the total civilian aircraft mechanic force21
than it did in 1967. In spring 1967, general aviation
mechanics accounted for 51.2 percent of a total of
100,500 employed aircraft mechanics. Attainment of
the spring 1970 employment levels, estimated on the
basis of the anticipations reported in the USTES survey
sample, by all civil aviation employers would raise
general aviation’s share to 53.3 percent. General aviation
firms would have 7,800 more mechanics on their
payrolls than did air carriers; the difference was 2,500 in
1967.
A ir carrier mechanics, b y occupation . The U.S.
Training and Employment Service survey of the air
carrier industry yielded a breakdown on the basis of
which it was possible to estimate both current and
18 Only aircraft mechanics are included in this survey.
Maintenance workers, such as carpenters and electricians, are
excluded. Each o f the mechanic occupations covered is described
in Appendix B.
19 Air carriers and general aviation, excluding civilian em­
ployees o f the Department o f Defense, who are considered in
Section IV.
2 0 FAA, Statistical H andbook o f A viation, and Air Transport
Association o f America, A ir Transport Facts and Figures.
21 Excluding the Department o f Defense.

PILOTS
Table 19. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed
pilots aged 50 years and over, spring 1968

Pilots
1ndustry division/sector
Total

Aged 50 years
and over

Aged 50 years
and over as
percentage
of total

Number employed
Grand to ta l..............................................

66,260

7,265

11.0

Air carriers, t o t a l ..................................
Certificated r o u te ............................
O th e r s ..............................................

34,500
32,500
2,000

3,255
3,065
190

9.4
9.4
9.5

General aviation, t o t a l .........................
Executive transportation...............
Air t a x i ..............................................
Aerial application............................
Industrial/special............................
Flight and ground schools............
G overnm ent.....................................
Repair stations ...............................

31,760
13,880
7,640
1,750
1,620
4,080
2,140
650

4,010
1,830
900
230
120
445
400
85

12.6
13.2
11.8
13.1
7.4
10.9
18.7
13.1

Percentage distribution
Grand to ta l..............................................

100.0

100.0

Air carriers, t o t a l ..................................
Certificated r o u te ............................
O th e r s ..............................................

52.1
49.0
3.0

44.8
42.2
2.6

General aviation, t o t a l .........................
Executive transportation...............
Air t a x i ..............................................
Aerial application............................
Industrial/special............................
Flight and ground schools............
G overnm ent.....................................
Repair stations ...............................

47.9
20.9
11.5
2.6
2.4
6.2
3.2
1.0

55.2
25.2
12.4
3.2
1.7
6.1
5.5
1.2

900 in the following 2 years. The overall 3-year
estimated demand for licensed airframe and powerplant
(A&P) mechanics, measuring from spring 1967 to spring
1970, totaled somewhat more than 2,400, of which
more than half had apparently already been met by
spring 1968.
The estimated 3-year growth requirement for the
miscellaneous group of “ other” mechanics, which
embraces a variety of very specialized and highly skilled
workers, was somewhat higher, totaling approximately
2,800. About 20,000 of these specialized mechanics
worked for air carriers in spring 1968, only 220 more
than in spring 1967. But the demand was increasing
sharply. Employers hoped to hire an additional 2,600 by
spring 1970, and to have nearly 3,600 more on their
payrolls at peak 1970 than they had at peak 1967.
Roughly 2,800 airplane electricians and 2,800 elec­
tronic mechanics were in the employ of civil air carriers
in the spring of 1968. Estimates based on reported
employer anticipations indicated a need for an addi­
tional 250 electricians and 270 electronic mechanics in
the ensuing 2 years. By peak 1970, employment in each
of these occupations was estimated to total around
3,350, requiring the net addition of about 400 o f each

S O U R C E : Em p lo ym en t totals as shown in tables 3 and 9 distributed on the basis o f
U STES survey sample data.

prospective employment of mechanics in specific occu­
pations; i.e., certificated aircraft and engine mechanic,22
certificated airplane electrician, electronic mechanic, and
“ other” types of mechanic, which includes certificated
radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services
mechanic. Each of these occupations, or occupational
categories, is described in Appendix B. A similar
breakdown by specific mechanic occupation was not
obtained for the general aviation industry.
About half of all mechanics employed by civil air
carriers in the spring of 1968 were aircraft and engine
mechanics certificated by the FAA, according to esti­
mates based on employer reports, and about two-fifths
were in the “ other” category (table 25). Airplane
electricians and electronic mechanics each constituted
5-6 percent of the total.
Air carriers employed about 25,300 certificated
aircraft and engine mechanics (also known as licensed
airframe and powerplant mechanics) in the spring of
1968, both on the line and in overhaul and maintenance
bases. Spring 1968 employment was about 1,500 above
spring 1967, but carriers expected to add only about

PILOTS
Ta b le 20. A ll civil aviation , total and average annual hours flo w n b y
p ilots, year ending A p ril/ M a y 1968

A ll pilo ts
and c o p ilo ts

In d u s try d ivis io n /se cto r

P ilots and
c o p ilo ts exc lu d in g
flig h t instructors

F lig h t
In s tru c to rs

T o ta l hours flo w n (thousands)
G ran d t o t a l ....................................
Civil a ir carriers, to ta l . . . .

A

C e rtific a te d r o u t e ..............
O th e r ........................................
G eneral a v ia tio n , to ta l . . . .
E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n .
A ir t a x i ....................................
A e ria l a p p lic a t io n ..............
I n d u s tr ia l/s p e c ia l...............
F lig h t and gro u n d schools
G o v e r n m e n t .........................
R e p a ir stations ..................

3 2 ,3 5 5 .1
1 7 ,4 1 5 .1
1 6 ,3 9 0 .4
1 ,0 2 4 .7

1 6 ,9 7 7 .0
1 5 ,9 9 6 .9
9 8 0 .1

4 3 8 .1
3 9 3 .5
4 4 .6

1 4 ,9 4 0 .0
5 ,2 4 1 .8
5 ,2 8 0 .9
7 9 1 .2
2 5 9 .1
2 ,6 1 2 .6
4 3 0 .8
3 2 3 .6
Average a nnual hours flo w n p e r p ilo t

G ran d t o t a l ....................................

512

C iv il a ir carriers, t o t a l ..............
C e rtific a te d r o u t e ...............
O t h e r ........................................

515
515
512

G eneral a v ia tio n , to ta l . . . .
E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n .
A ir t a x i ....................................
A e ria l a p p lic a t io n ..............

509
407

In d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l...............
F lig h t and gro u n d schools
G o v e r n m e n t .........................
R e p a ir stations ..................

166
708
208
519

5 21
522
508

360
344
615

763
487

S O U R C E : U S T E S survey sam ple d ata fo r to ta l hours flo w n by p ilo ts in fla te d to
n a tio n a l to ta ls by same fa c to r as used to in fla te 1 9 6 7 survey e m p lo y m e n t da ta . Average
to ta l hours flo w n by average o f em ­

The title “ aircraft and engine” mechanic and “airframe annual hours flo w n p er p ilo t c o m p u te d by divid in g
p lo y m e n t in spring o f 1 9 6 7 and spring o f 1 9 6 8 .
and powerplant (A&P)” mechanic are interchangeable.
22




19

type of mechanic above peak 1967. Air carrier needs for
licensed airplane electricians and electronic mechanics
were relatively small in number, but reportedly crucial
to operations.

PILOTS
T a b le 21 . N u m b e r o f F A A -c e rtific a te d flig h t and g rou nd scho ols
fo r p ilo ts, b y ty p e o f sc h o o l, 1965-68

N u m b e r o f c e rtific a te d schools f o r p ilo ts
T y p e o f school
D e c. 3 1 , 1 9 6 5

General

aviation

mechanics,

by

Not all of these mechanics were full-time or certifi­
cated or licensed, but most were all-around mechanics.
The general aviation industry is characterized by small
establishments, frequently with no more than one or
two aircraft to maintain. If a mechanic is employed, he
must be able to do all the work. In many one-man
operations, particularly in the aerial/application and
industrial/special sectors of the industry, the pilot, who
is also frequently the owner-operator, is a qualified
airframe and engine mechanic as well, and performs the
maintenance function on a when-needed basis. Operators
who do not employ their own mechanics, or whose
repair needs are beyond the abilities of their staffs, have
their work done at repair stations or at the overhaul and
maintenance bases of air carriers.
Repair stations employed about 39,000 mechanics
and repairmen in 1967, and estimates based on the
USTES sample of firms indicate a peak 1967 to peak
1970 need for about 8,300 or 19 percent more (table
27). An expansion of more than 1,800, or 31 percent,
was planned by companies providing executive transpor­
tation. The sharpest relative increase was contemplated
by schools and by air taxis. Both mechanic schools and
air taxi operations hoped to have roughly 45 percent
more mechanics on their payrolls at peak 1970 than
they had at peak 1967. Each of the other general
aviation sectors also planned to expand its mechanic
work force well above previous levels.

20




J an . 1, 1 9 6 8

C o m b in e d flig h t a n d g ro u n d .

402

505

F lig h t o n l y .....................................

734

773

G ro u n d o n l y .................................

46

74

127

T o t a l .........................................

1 ,1 8 2

1 ,3 5 2

1 ,7 2 0

industry sector.

While about three-fourths of the nearly 55,000 general
aviation aircraft mechanics were in repair stations in the
spring of 1968, some were employed in each of the
other sectors, according to estimates based on em­
ployers’ reports to the USTES survey (table 26). About
6,000, or 11 percent of the total, were engaged in
maintaining and repairing aircraft used in executive
transportation; close to 2,600, or nearly 5 percent of the
total, were employed by air taxi operations; and more
than 3,000, or close to 6 percent, were at schools, both
teaching and maintaining equipment. State and local
governments and Federal Government nonmilitary agen­
cies employed about 1,000. Approximately 900 were
employed by firms engaged in industrial/special activi­
ties, and 700 were in the aerial/application sector.

D ec. 3 1 ,1 9 6 6

813
780

S O U R C E : U.S. Departm ent o f Transportation, Federal Aviation Adm inistration,
S ta tis tic a l H a n d b o o k o f A v ia tio n , 1 9 6 6 and 1967 editions, fo r 196 5 and 196 6 data.
January 1, 196 8 data compiled from F A A :A C N o. 140-2 D .

Mechanics age 50 years and over

Age is less of an employment barrier for mechanics
than for pilots. There are no FAA retirement age
regulations for mechanics employed by air carriers, as
there are for pilots or in general aviation firms, and a
good number are in the upper age brackets.
Estimates based on the USTES survey indicate that
about 15 percent of the 105,800 mechanics employed in
civil aviation in spring 1968, excluding civilians em­
ployed by the Department of Defense, were 50 years of
age and over (table 28). Older mechanic^ accounted for
12 percent of the total number employed by air carriers
and for 17 percent of all mechanics employed in general
aviation, reflecting again the preference of carriers for
younger workers.
Although mechanic employment was divided fairly
evenly between the carriers and general aviation in 1968,
the carriers employed slightly less than 40 percent of the
15.800 older mechanics; about 60 percent were em­
ployed in general aviation, with 47 percent of the
15.800 at repair stations.
Mechanic supply

The major sources of supply for mechanics in recent
years have been, and continue to be, graduates of public
and private vocational institutions and veterans who
have had some aircraft mechanic training and experience
in the armed forces. Each of these sources, as well as the
extent of on-the-job training being provided by em­
ployers, is evaluated below, within the framework of
available information.
Aircraft Mechanic Schools. As of mid-January 1969,
a total of 106 aviation mechanic schools had been
certificated by the FAA. Altogether these schools
offered: 86 programs in powerplant mechanic skills, 82
programs in airframe mechanic skills, and 75 programs in

PILOTS
Table 22. FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating)
January 1,1968
Number of certificated programs (ratings)^/

Total number

Regionl/ and State
B

A

P

869

733

1,518

39
7
5
3
16

17
1

8

Middle Atlantic . . . .
New Y o r k ...............
New Jersey...............
Pennsylvania............

PG

CG

PH

CH

F

FH

I

Schools

Ratings

1,346

17

8

93

69

1,257

7

1,108

1,720

7,025

60
8
5
5
23
6
13

2

7

74
10
7
8
29
6
14

49
7
5
3
19
3
12

82
10
8
10
33
7
14

298
41
25
26
119
22
65

97
49
14
34

68
32
13
23

148
60
27
61

131
52
27
52

3
3

105
42
20
43

177
80
31
66

681
289
125
267

North Central:
East North Central . .
O h i o .......................
Indiana....................
Illin o is ....................
Michigan.................
W isconsin...............

130
23
20
41
40
6

109
17
14
40
32
6

231
46
30
65
59
31

207
41
25
58
56
27

3
1
1
1

174
39
18
50
49
18

256
48
38
74
64
32

1,069
208
137
315
296
113

West North Central . .
Minnesota...............
I o w a .......................
M issouri.................
North Dakota . . . .
South Dakota . . . .
Nebraska..................
Kansas..............

89
24
7
20
14
9
6
9

74
21
4
19
9
6
4
11

165
34
22
29
15
12
21
32

145
31
20
25
13
10
17
29

South:
South Atlantic............
Delaware.................
Maryland . .*............
Dist. of Col...............
Virginia....................
West Virginia . . . .
North Carolina . . .
South Carolina
Georgia....................
Florida....................

110
2
6
2
7
2
10
13
26
42

110
1
4
1
7
1
13
10
21
52

189
3
13
2
20
8
25
20
37
61

170

Total, U.S., Territories,
and Europe ...............
North East:
New England...............
Maine.......................
New Hampshire . . .
V erm o nt.................
Massachusetts . . . .
Rhode Island . . . .
Connecticut............

£2

See footnotes at end of table.




9

C

13
2
18
7
22
15
30
60

2

1
1

55
8
3
6
21
6
11

1
1

1

1

12
5
3
4

5
3

11
1
3
5
2

6
1
2
1
2

196
39
24
53
55
25

11
4
1
2

8
4
1
2

2
2

1

140
31
20
26
14
8
16
25

110
25
15
23
10
7
9
21

179
38
24
32
15
15
23
32

742
174
90
146
75
52
76
129

156
3
9
1
16
6
22
15
27
57

138
3
10
1
13
3
22
10
26
50

217
4
15
2
21
8
26
25
40
76

890
15
55
9
81
27
114
89
167
333

2

2

2

7

6

1

1

2

2

1

1

5

4

111
43
21
47

1

1
1

1

PILOTS
Table 22. FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating)
January 1,1968—Continued

Total number

Number of certificated programs (ratings)2/
Region ^/ and State
CH

2
1
1

2
1
1

77
15
24
17
21

1

3

13

11

1

1
2

4
1
8

2

1
2

9

168
13
23
24
108

114
24
11
3
25
14
20
9
8

2

2

13
2
1

13
2
1

1

1

1

1

1

1
2
3
2
2

1
2
3
2
2

104
26
12
2
23
12
14
8
7

280
50
25
187
11
7

256
47
23
170
11
5

2
1

22
3
2
16
1

18
3
2
12
1

5
1

3
1

2
1

1

1

1

A

East South Central . . .
Kentucky ..................
Tennessee..................
Alabam a....................
Mississippi..................

53
14
17
12
10

42
12
9
12
9

88
16
28
20
24

78
15
25
17
21

West South Central . . .
Arkansas....................
Louisiana ..................
Oklahom a..................
Texas..........................

141
7
14
25
95

126
6
11
18
91

214
18
28
36
132

181
15
23
28
115

3

43
15

41
14

11
6
7
4

1
6
8
5
3
4

124
27
13
4
24
14
20
13
9

P a c ific ..........................
Washington...............
Oregon.......................
C a lifo rn ia..................
A la s k a .......................
H a w a ii.......................

160
22
7
116
11
4

139
19
7
99
10
4

Territories:
Puerto R i c o ..................
Guam .............................

5
1

Europe:
A n tw e rp .......................

1

West:
Mountain.......................
M ontana....................
Idaho ..........................
Wyoming....................
Colorado....................
New M exico...............
Arizona.......................
U t a h ..........................
Nevada.......................

FH

PH

B

P

C

PG

1

CG

F

I

Schools

Ratings

66
15
24
13
14

92
19
29
20
24

409
89
130
91
99

156
11
21
25
99

232
19
29
42
142

101
70
126
159
662

86
16
9
1
21
10
15
8
6

134
28
13
4
26
15
25
14
9

543
126
47
11
114
68
88
51
38

222
38
18
153
10
3

344
58
31
235
13
7

1,348
231
108
918
65
26

2

1

5
1

18
4

1

1

1

6

247
47
24
164
9
3

1

1

1

2
1

1

^/Regional distribution has been converted fro'm FA A to Labor D epartm ent pattern.
2 /K e y to ratings:
B — Basic Ground School; A — Advanced Ground School; P — Primary Flying School - Airplane; C — Commercial Flying School - Airplanes; PG — Primary Flying School - Glider;
CG — Commercial Flying School - Glider; PH — Primary Flying School - Helicopter; CH — Commercial Flying School - H elicopter; F — Flight Instructor School; CH — Commercial
Flying School - Helicopter; F — Flight Instructor School; FH — Flight Instructor School - Helicopter; I — Instrum ent Flying School.
SO U R C E :
2D , pp. 1-46.




Derived from U.S. Departm ent of Transportation, Federal Aviation A dm inistration, List o f Certificated Pilot Flight and Ground Schools, January 1, 19 68, A C 140-

MECHANICS
Table 23. A ll civil aviation, em ploym ent trends, all mechanics, F
by industry division, 1967-70

A ir carriers
Date

Total
Total

Certificated
route

General
aviation

Number employed
Spring of:
1967 .............................................
1968 .............................................
1969 (e s t.)...................................
1970 (e s t.)...................................

100,500
105,800
113,400
117,800

49,000
51,000
53,000
55,000

47,000
49,000
51,000
53,000

51,500
54,800
60,400
62,800

Peak of :
1967 .............................................
1968 (e s t.)...................................
1970 (e s t.)...................................

111,300
117,900
131,200

53,300
55,400
59,800

51,100
53,300
57,600

58,000
62,500
71,400

Percentage distribution
Spring of:
1967 .............................................
1968 .............................................
1969 ( e s t.)...................................
1970 ( e s t.)...................................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

48.8
48.2
46.7
46.7

46.8
46.3
45.0
45.0

51.2
51.8
53.3
53.3

Peak of:
1967 .............................................
1968 (e s t.)...................................
1970 (e s t.)...................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

47.9
47.0
45.6

45.9
45.2
43.9

52.1
53.0
54.4

^ A i r c r a f t mechanics o n ly ; does n o t include m aintenance w orkers.
S O U R C E : See tab le 1.

combined airframe and powerplant mechanic skills
(table 29).
Both the number of schools and the number of
certificated programs being offered have increased
rapidly since the middle of 1967. FAA-certificated
aviation mechanic schools totaled 69 in 1963,23 10 were
added in the 4# years between then and July 1, 1967,
but 27 more were brought into the program in the
ensuing year and a half to reach the total of 106 on
January 15, 1969 24 During the same 18-month period,
the total number of FAA-approved courses given by
these schools also increased sharply, from 192 to 243.
In table 30, all certificated aviation mechanic school
programs offered during the period August 1966 to
January 1969 have been grouped according to the
regions and labor areas in which they were located.
From this it may be seen that, in January 1969, more
than three-fifths of all approved programs were being
offered in the North Central and Western States.
Nine States25 and the District of Columbia had no
approved programs at all. Indeed, location of the
certificated schools appears to bear only a minor
relationship to probable concentrations of demand for
23 FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 69 .
2 4 There are, in addition, an unknown but undoubtedly large
number o f noncertificated schools that have, for one reason or
another, not sought or been granted certification.
25 Delaware, Kentucky, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode
Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia.
26 FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 69 .




graduates. Thus, there are only three schools in the New
York metropolitan area, of which only one is a major
supplier; only three schools in the Chicago area, of
which none is a major supplier; and no school at all in
Nashville, Tenn., a medium-sized hub. On the other
hand, aviation mechanics graduated from the major
supplier in Pittsburgh, Pa., have to leave the area to find
jobs; there is always a local surplus.
Comprehensive data on total enrollment and sizes of
the annual graduating classes of certificated aviation
mechanic schools are not readily available, since FAA
does not require the schools to maintain or report such
records. However, information gathered as a by-product
of the two formal FAA school inspections which are
made each year gives some clues. On this basis, as well as
on the basis of data reported in the USTES 1968 survey,
it is estimated that between 12,000and 13,500 students
were enrolled in FAA certificated aviation mechanic
schools in 1968 (compared with 8,000 in 1963),26 and
that the total number of prospective graduates in 1968
was in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 5,000. The number
of graduates per school per year varies widely, ranging
between 2 to 5 and 500 to 600. Only seven schools are
“ major suppliers” of aviation mechanics. In addition to
those mentioned above in the New York and Pittsburgh
areas, major suppliers are located in Teterboro, New
Jersey; Daytona Beach, Florida; Tulsa, Oklahoma;
Lexington, Massachusetts; and Inglewood, California.
The great majority of aviation mechanic schools are
public institutions at vocational high school and techMECHANICS
Tab le 24. A ll civil aviation, increases in em ploym ent over specified periods,
by industry division, 1967-70

A ir carriers
Date

Total
Total

Certificated
route

General
aviation

Employment increases
Spring of:
1967-68 ......................................
1968-69 ( e s t . ) .............................
1969-70 ( e s t . ) .............................
1967-70 ( e s t . ) .............................

5,300
7,600
4,400
17,300

2,000
2,000
2,000
6,000

2,000
2,000
2,000
6,000

3 ,300
5,600
2,400
11,300

Peak of:
1967-68 ( e s t . ) .............................
1968-70 ( e s t . ) .............................
1967-70 ( e s t . ) .............................

6,600
13,300
19,900

2,100
4,400
6,500

2,200
4,300
6,500

4 ,500
8 ,9 0 0
13,400

Percentage increases
Spring of:
1967-68 ......................................
1968-69 ( e s t . ) .............................
1969-70 ( e s t . ) .............................
1967-70 ( e s t . ) .............................

5.3
7.2
3.9
17.2

4.1
3.9
3.8
12.2

4.3
4.1
3.9
12.8

6.4
10.2
4.0
21.9

Peak of:
1967-68 ( e s t . ) .............................
1968-70 ( e s t . ) .............................
1967-70 ( e s t . ) .............................

5.9
11.3
17.9

3.9
7.9
12.2

4.3
8.1
12.7

7.8
14.2
23.1

SO URCE:

Based on tab le 2 3 .

23

nical trade school levels; only 16 are private schools, and
only 14 are part of public or private universities or
colleges, not including junior colleges. The University of
Illinois, San Jose, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Idaho State,
Utah State, Southern Illinois, and Western Michigan are
examples of colleges and universities which offer
approved courses for aviation mechanic certification.
Government aid. A major impetus to the recent large
increase in the number of aviation mechanic schools
seeking FAA certification is the Federal aid offered to
such schools through the U.S. Office of Education under

the Smith-Hughes Act and under Title 3 of the GeorgeBarden Act. Under these Acts, certificated schools are
receiving both financial aid and surplus equipment for
use in training aviation mechanics. Federally guaranteed
loans for students are also available under the auspices of
the U.S. Office of Education, as they are for pilots.
Unlike flight school attendance, attendance at an
approved mechanic school of any type has always
qualified a veteran for benefits under the “ G.I. Bill of
Rights.” Aviation mechanics, however, are blanketed in
with all other types of mechanics under the Veterans
Educational Assistance Program and receive no special

M E C H A N IC S
Table 25. Civil air carriers, em ploym ent trends, by type of m echanic,!/ 1967-70

Type of mechanic
Date

Total

Aircraft
and engine
mechanics

Airplane
electricians

Electronic
mechanics

Other
mechanics

Number employed
Spring of:
1967 .........................................................................
1968 .........................................................................
1969 (e s t.)................................................................
1970 (e s t.)................................................................

49,000
51,000
53,000
55,000

23,770
25,300
25,880
26,210

2,720
2,860
2,900
3,110

2,700
2,810
3,000
3,080

19,810
20,030
21,220
22,600

Peak of:
1967 .........................................................................
1968 (e s t.)................................................................
1970 (e s t.)................................................................

53,300
55,400
59,800

26,390
27,540
28,500

2,960
3,060
3,380

2,950
3,040
3,350

21,000
21,760
24,570

Increases in number employed
Spring of:
1967-68 ...................................................................
1968-69 (e s t.)...........................................................
1969-70 4e s t.)...........................................................
1967-70 (e s t.)...........................................................

2,000
2,000
2,000
6,000

1,530
580
330
2,440

140
40
210
390

110
190
80
380

220
1,190
1,380
2,790

Peak of:
1967-68 (e s t.)...........................................................
1968-70 (e s t.)...........................................................
1967-70 (e s t.)...........................................................

2,100
4,400
6,500

1,150
960
2,110

100
320
420

90
310
400

760
2,810
3,570

Percentage distribution
Spring of:
1967 .........................................................................
1968 .........................................................................
1969 (e s t.)................................................................
1970 (e s t.)................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

48.5
49.6
48.8
47.7

5.6
5.6
5.5
5.7

5.5
5.5
5.7
5.6

40.2
39.3
40.0
41.1

Peak of:
1967 ............................................................................
1968 (es t.)...................................................................
1970 (est.)...................................................................

100.0
100.0
100.0

49.5
49.7
47.7

5.6
5.5
5.7

5.5
5.5
5.6

39.4
39.3
41.1

!/A ir c r a ft mechanics only; does not include m aintenance workers.
S O U R C E : E m ploym ent totals as shown in table 2 3 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data.

24




benefits such as pilots do. Allowances are nominal and
are not related to school tuition and fee charges, as are
those for pilots. The cost of a mechanic trainee’s
education may be nothing or much more than his
allowance, but this cost is not taken into account in
determining the amount of money he receives, nor are
any incentives offered to induce him to undertake
aviation mechanic schooling rather than any other kind.
A veteran attending mechanic school full time receives
$130 a month if he has no dependents, $165 a month if
he has one dependent, $175 if he has two dependents,
and $10 a month more for each dependent above two.
Allowances for part-time school attendance are propor­
tionately less.
The latest available Veterans Administration survey
indicates that cumulatively through June 30, 1968, a
total of only 7,327 men had undergone training as
aircraft mechanics with VA benefits27 (compared with
29,400 pilots).' Of these, 7,310 had received their
training in school and 17 on the job. Only about 2,300
of the school trainees had attended a vocational school
or technical post-high school; the rest, about 5,000, had
attended vocational or technical schools which did not
require a previous high school education. No informa­

tion is available as to how many of these 7,300
veteran-trainees had actually sought or found jobs as
aircraft mechanics in the civil aviation industry.
School graduates as source o f supply. It is said of
public aviation mechanic schools that many enroll, few
graduate. Moreover, not all graduates, by any means,
find their way into jobs in the aviation industry. A
graduate of a public school of high school level may have
become adept at mechanical skills, but will still require 3
to 4 years of arduous on-the-job training under close
supervision before he is ready to undergo FAA examina­
tion and fill a licensed aircraft mechanic’s position.
Many never reach this stage. Upon graduation, they tend
to seek mechanic jobs in aircraft manufacturing or
outside of the aviation industry where licensing is not
required. Perhaps as many as half of them are thus lost
to the civil aviation industry.
The quality of education offered in this field in
public institutions, many of which are operating at or
near capacity, is generally not of the best nor the most
up-to-date. A very large amount of space is needed and
27
Veterans Administration, Department o f Veterans Bene­
fits, unpublished data.

M E C H A N IC S !'
Table 26. General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70

Spring o fSector
1967

1968

Peak o f-

1969
(est.)

1970
(est.)

1967

1968
(est.)

1970
(est.)

62,500
6,560
3,140
810
960
3,550
1,160
46,320

71,400
7,810
4,000
1,110
1,130
4,400
1,200
51,750

100.0
10.5
5.0
1.3
1.5
5.7
1.9
74.1

100.0
10.9
5.6
1.6
1.6
6.2
1.7
72.5

Number employed!/
General aviation, t o t a l .......................
Executive transportation...............
Air t a x i............................................
Aerial application..........................
I ndustrial/special..........................
Mechanic schools..........................
Government...................................
Repair stations .............................

51,500
5,020
2,290
680
900
2,490
1,100
39,020

54,800
6,090
2,590
710
910
3,120
1,120
40,260

60,400
6,430
3,170
810
960
3,680
1,150
44,200

62,800
6,870
3,530
980
990
3,880
1,150
45,400

58,000
5,960
2,700
790
960
3,050
1,120
43,420

Percentage distribution
General aviation, t o t a l ............\ . . .
Executive transportation...............
Air t a x i............................................
Aerial application..........................
I ndustrial/special..........................
Mechanic schools..........................
Government...................................
Repair stations .............................

100.0
9.8
4.4
1.3
1.8
4.8
2.1
75.8

100.0
11.1
4.7
1.3
1.7
5.7
2.0
73.5

100.0
10.6
5.2
1.3
1.6
6.1
1.9
73.2

100.0
10.9
5.6
1.6
1.6
6.2
1.8
72.3

100.0
10.3
4.6
1.4
1.6
5.3
1.9
74.9

J /A ir c r a ft mechanics only; does not include m aintenance workers.
S O U R C E : See table 1.




25

MECHANICS
Table 27. General aviation, changes in employment, by industry sector, 1967-70

Spring o fSector
1967-68

1968-69
(est.)

Peak o f-

1969-70
(est.)

1967-70
(est.)

1968-70
(est.)

1967-70
(est.)

4,500
600
440
20
0
500
40
2,900

8,900
1,250
860
300
170
850
40
5,430

13,400
1,850
1,300
320
170
1,350
80
8,330

7.8
10.1
16.3
2.5
0
16.4
3.6
6.6

14.2
19.1
27.4
37.0
17.7
23.9
3.4
11.7

23.1
31.0
48.1
40.5
17.7
44.3
7.1
19.2

1967-68
(est.)

Increases in number employed
General aviation, t o t a l ........................
Executive transportation...............
Air ta x i............................................
Aerial application..........................
1ndustrial/special..........................
Mechanic schools..........................
Government...................................
Repair stations .............................

3,300
1,070
300
30
10
630
20
1,240

5,600
340
580
100
50
560
30
3,940

2,400
440
360
170
30
200
0
1,200

11,300
1,850
1,240
300
90
1,390
50
6,380

Percentage increases
General aviation, t o t a l ........................
Executive transportation...............
Air t a x i............................................
Aerial application..........................
1ndustrial/special..........................
Mechanic schools..........................
Government...................................
Repair stations .............................

6.4
21.3
13.1
4.4
1.1
25.3
1.8
3.2

10.2
5.6
22.4
14.1
5.5
17.9
2.7
9.8

4.0
28.1
38.4
21.0
3.1
5.4
0
2.7

34.2
36.9
54.1
44.1
10.0
55.8
4.5
16.4

S O U R C E : Based on table 26.

often not available. At Aviation High School in Long
Island City, New York, the largest aviation mechanic
school in the country, for example, 2,400 day students
and 525 evening students were enrolled in the spring of
1968, but there were only 2,000 bench spaces. The
school was operating above capacity by using extended
sessions, but the Board of Education planned no
facilities expansion at that time. It is perhaps unreason­
able to expect public high schools to be equipped with
adequate supplies of materials and sophisticated tools
and equipment, or with expensive airframes and jet
engines for students to learn on. Only the basics can be
taught at most public schools; the practical, real-world
training and keeping abreast of the latest developments
must take place where the equipment is, i.e., on the job.
Except for graduates of universities and- the better
private schools who have been certificated or licensed
and choose to make a career of aeronautical mechanics,
graduates of aviation mechanic schools are generally
hired as trainees or apprentices. They are preferred over
completely untrained men. As trainees or apprentices,
they are in great demand, and it appears that the number
that may become available for such work in the civil
aviation industry as a whole in the next couple of years
may be insufficient to meet the need.
26




M ilita r y -tr a in e d mechanics.
Although aircraft
mechanics trained in the military services are also an
important source of manpower supply for civil aviation,
employers in both the air carrier and general aviation
divisions of the industry reported to the USTES, in the
spring of 1968, that men who had received military
training only were “ severely restricted for immediate
placement in the civilian aircraft maintenance industry
as full-functioning mechanics” because of their limited
work experience. They tend to be specialized, either on
one system of one type of airplane, or on some type of
aircraft which does not exist in the civilian economy.
Like public school graduates, they are generally hired as
trainees or apprentices only. Reportedly, they not only
require technical retraining, but their general job
knowledge must be increased.

Military-service-trained aircraft mechanics, no matter
how adequate a source of good prospects for entry
occupations, cannot meet civil aviation’s short-range
need for fully qualified licensed mechanics of various
types. Some of the necessary training may be obtained
by veterans who seek further instruction at wellequipped schools. But the bulk of it must be obtained
on the job.

MECHANICS
Ta b le 28. A ll civil aviation, num ber and percentage d istrib ution o f em ployed
m echanics aged 5 0 years and over, spring 1968

M e c h a n ic s !/
In d u s try d ivis io n /s e c to r
T o ta l

A ged 5 0 years
and over

A ged 5 0 a nd over
as percentage
o f to ta l

N u m b e r e m p lo y e d
G ra n d t o t a l

................................

1 0 5 ,8 0 0

1 5 ,7 7 5

1 4 .9

A ir c arriers, t o t a l .....................
C e rtific a te d r o u t e ..............
O t h e r s ....................................

5 1 ,0 0 0
4 9 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0

6 ,2 2 5
5 ,8 6 5
360

1 2 .2
1 2 .0
1 8 .0

G eneral a v ia tio n , to ta l . . . .
E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n .
A ir t a x i ....................................
A e ria l a p p l ic a t i o n ..............
1n d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l...............
A v ia tio n s c h o o ls ..................
G o v e r n m e n t .........................
R e p a ir s tations ..................

5 4 ,8 0 0
6 ,0 9 0
2 ,5 9 0
710
910
3 ,1 2 0
1 ,1 2 0
4 0 ,2 6 0

9 ,5 5 0
930
305
115
100

1 7 .4
1 5 .3
1 1 .8
1 6 .2
1 1 .0
1 3 .5

420
205
7 ,4 7 0

1 8 .3
1 8 .6

Percentage d is trib u tio n
G ra n d to ta l

................................

1 0 0 .0

1 0 0 .0

A ir c arriers, t o t a l ......................
C e rtific a te d r o u t e ..............
O t h e r s ....................................

4 8 .2
4 6 .3
1 .9

3 9 .5
3 7 .2

G en e ra l a v ia tio n , to ta l

5 1 .8

6 0 .5
5 .9

. . . .

E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n .
A i r t a x i ....................................
A e ria l a p p l ic a t i o n ..............
1n d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l..............
A v ia tio n s c h o o ls ..................

5 .8
2 .4
0 .7
0 .9
2 .9

G o v e r n m e n t .........................
R e p a ir stations ..................

1.1
3 8.1

2 .3

1 .9
0 .7
0 .6
2 .7
1 .3
4 7 .4

J /A ir c r a ft m echanics o n ly ; does n o t in c lu d e m ain ten an ce w o rkers.
S O U R C E : E m p lo y m e n t to ta ls as show n in tables 2 3 and 2 6 d is trib u te d on basis o f
U S T E S survey sam ple data.

On-the-job training. As of January 1, 1969, a total
of about 1,000 trainees were enrolled in 3- or 4-year
registered apprenticeship programs leading to licensing as
aircraft mechanics.28 The programs were being con­
ducted mainly by airlines, but some general aviation
firms, even very small ones, and some manufacturers
were also participating. Most o f me apprentices were
preparing for certification as A&P mechanics or airplane
electricians, but the list of occupations for which
on-the-job apprenticeship training under registered pro­
grams was being provided by employers includes the
following occupations as well: aircraft assembly
mechanic, accessories mechanic, aircraft mechanic,
engine mechanic, helicopter mechanic, instrument
mechanic, line service mechanic, propeller mechanic,
radio mechanic, aircraft machinist, and sheet metal
mechanic.
It is estimated from the spring 1968 USTES survey
data that nearly 12,000 aviation mechanics would
complete formal company on-the-job training programs
of some kind during 1968. Civil air carriers accounted
for about 3,500 of this total, and general aviation
companies,29 mainly repair stations, for the rest.




The USTES questionnaire asked civil air carriers to
report the number of workers “ expected* to complete
training in 1968 for prom otion to each of the specified
occupations” , i.e., certificated aircraft and engine
mechanic, certificated airplane electrician, electronic
mechanic, and “ other” mechanics (see appendix B).
Estimates based on the responses indicate the following
breakdown:
Num ber o f aircraft
mechanics to be
trained in 1968

All mechanics, t o t a l .............................
Aircraft and engine m e c h a n ic s.............................
Airplane electricians . ............................................
Electronic mechanics ............................................
Other m e c h a n ic s.....................................................

3 ,5 3 0
2 ,4 5 0
250
160
670

No such occupational breakdown is available for general
aviation where employers were simply asked to report
the total number of mechanics expected to complete
formal company training programs in 1968. The total
number for general aviation is estimated, on the basis of
these reports, at 8,300, of which 6,500 were in repair
stations and nearly 1,000 in executive transportation.
Some training of mechanics was going on, however, in
each of the other sectors of the industry.
Interpretation of the figures reported to the USTES
on the number of mechanics to be trained on the job
must be tempered with caution. There is substantial
evidence that they are heavily overstated to the extent
that many employers included in their reports all
mechanics undergoing training of any kind—orientation,
refresher, upgrading, apprenticeship, etc.—rather than
only those who would, upon completion of their
training courses, be ready in 1968 for promotion to the
position of a fully qualified and certificated mechanic of
the type specified.
But even these highly inflated figures fall short of the
estimated annual combined replacement and growth
needs for fully qualified mechanics by both air carriers
and general aviation firms in the short-term future. The
discrepancy between on-the-job training and probable
needs is most marked in regard to airplane electricians,
electronic mechanics, and “ other” mechanics, which
includes radio, instrument, propeller, and such highly
specialized mechanics as avionic technicians.30
28 U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Apprenticeship and
Training, unpublished data. The term “aircraft mechanic,” as
used here, encompasses all o f the occupations listed in the
paragraph.
29 Not including mechanic schools.
3 0 Avionic technicians checkv repair, and install aircraft
communication/navigation and control equipment.

27

MECHANICS
Table 29. Number of FAA-certificated schools and approved
programs (ratings) for mechanics, by type, 1966-69

Number of certificated schools for mechanics
Program (rating)
Aug. 1, 1966
Total schools........................................................................................

July 1,1967

July 15,1968

Jan. 15, 1969

78

79

97

106

Combined airframe and powerplant
mechanic.......................................................................................
Airframe mechanic o n l y .............................................................
Powerplant mechanic o n ly ..........................................................

59
66
68

60
64
68

71
77
80

75
82
86

Total Number of approved programs
(ra tin g s)..........................................................................................

193

192

228

243

Number of approved programs (ratings) for:

S O U R C E : Derived fro m U.S. D epartm ent of Transportation, Federal A viation A dm inistration, A dvisory Circulars A C 14 7 -2 B ,
A C 147-2C , A C 1 4 7 -2 D , and A C 147 -2E .

Conclusions

A tightness in the overall supply of aircraft mechanics
in relation to the estimated demand seems to be
developing. Of the 27 labor areas surveyed by the
USTES in the spring of 1968, half reported stringencies
in the supply of aircraft mechanics varying from slight to
critical. Employers complained of shortages of fully
qualified and certificated airplane electricians, electronic
and instrument mechanics, and radio and avionic techni­
cians, as well as of airframe and powerplant mechanics.
Graduates of most, though not all, aviation mechanic
schools, and mechanics released from the armed forces
cannot meet the need; they are not experienced with
sophisticated modern civilian aircraft and can qualify
only as trainees or apprentices. There is insufficient
incentive for them to enter the long road through
training to FAA certification when alternative job
opportunities at good pay are available. While all route
carriers and many other civil aviation companies, as well
as some manufacturers of aircraft, are providing on-thejob training, it is inadequate for all expected replace­
ment and growth needs in the short-run future,
especially in the most highly skilled and specialized
occupations where the stringency already seems to be
acute.

28




General aviation firms are at a particular disadvantage
in hiring and retaining fully qualified mechanics of the
types they need. Many of them complain that they
cannot hold mechanics after they have spent a great deal
of time and money training them because, once trained,
they leave for better paying and more stable government
or airline jobs. A very common practice among general
aviation companies to meet this problem is to hire only
certificated airframe and engine mechanics who are also
pilots and can, therefore, justify higher and steadier pay
by doing everything. In very small companies, the
pilot/mechanic is frequently the employer himself.
It is clear that all demands for fully qualified and
certificated aircraft mechanics and specialized techni­
cians of various kinds cannot be met by recruitment in
the open market. Expanded formal company on-the-job
training programs, especially apprenticeship programs,
planned sufficiently in advance of anticipated needs,
appear to offer one practical approach to the problem.
Study at the better equipped private schools might be
encouraged through more generous government student
aid grants or benefits under the Veterans Educational
Assistance Program. If small general aviation firms are to
compete in the labor market for a limited mechanic
supply, they may have to offer inducements in the form
of an adequate guaranteed annual wage or something
similar.

M ECHANICS
Table 30. FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating),

1966-69
Number of certificated programs (ratings)^/
Region and labor areal/

Total U.S. and T errito ries.........................................

August 1,1966

July 1,1967

July 15,1968

Jan. 15,1969

A

P

C

A

P

C

A

P

C

A

P

C

66

68

59

64

68

60

77

80

71

82

86

75

11

12

10

11

12

12

12

13

12

North Eastern S ta te s ..................................................

12

13

11

New England...........................................................
Boston, Mass........................................................
Danielson, Conn...................................................

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

3
2
1

Middle A tla n tic .....................................................
Buffalo, N.Y.........................................................
New York, N .Y....................................................
Utica-Rome, N .Y.................................................
Newark, N.J..........................................................
Paterson-Clifton-Passaic, N.J..............................
Pittsburgh, Pa.......................................................
Philadelphia, Pa....................................................
Williamsport, Pa...................................................

9
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

10
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1

8
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

8
1
2
0
1
1
1
1
1

9
1
3
0
1
1
1
1
1

7
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1

8
1
2
0
1
1
1
1
1

9
1
3
0
1
1
1
1
1

9
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

9
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

10
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1

10
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1

North Central S ta te s ..................................................

14

14

14

13

13

16

19

19

20

21

20

22

East North C e n tra l...............................................
Columbus, Ohio ...............................................
Lafayette, I nd......................................................
Vincennes, Ind.....................................................
Chicago, III...........................................................
St. Louis, Mo.-! II..................................................
Carbondale, III......................................................
Champaign-Urbana, III........................................
Detroit, Mich........................................................
South Haven, Mich..............................................
Kalamazoo, Mich.................................................
Milwaukee, Wis....................................................
Beloit, Wis.............................................................

9
0
1
0
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1

9
0
1
0
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1

9
0
0
1
3
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1

8
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1

8
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1

12
0
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1

9
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1

8
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1

12
0
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1

9
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1

8
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1

12
0
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1

West North C e n tral...............................................
Thief River Falls, Minn.......................................
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.................................
Kansas City, Kans./Mo........................................
Salina, Kans..........................................................
Topeka, Kans.......................................................
Wichita, Kans.......................................................
Des Moines, Io w a ...............................................
Ottumwa, Io w a ..................................................
Waterloo, I o w a ..................................................
Fargo-Moorhead, N.D..........................................
Sioux Falls, S.D....................................................
Watertown, S.D....................................................
Omaha, Nebr.-lowa .........................................
Lincoln, Nebr.......................................................
Sidney, Nebr........................................................

5
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0

5
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

5
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

5
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0

5
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

4
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

10
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1

11
1
1
3
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1

8
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0

12
1
1
2
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1

12
1
1
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1

10
1
0
2
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0

Southern S tates...........................................................

12

12

13

13

13

13

16

17

16

17

19

17

South Atlantic........................................................
Baltimore, Md......................................................
Winston-Salem, N.C.................................... .. . .
Florence, S.C........................................................
Americus, Ga. ..................................................
Atlanta, Ga...........................................................
Miami, Fla.............................................................
St. Petersburg, Fla...............................................

6
0
0
1
1
0
2
0

6
0
0
1
1
0
2
0

7
1
0
1
1
0
2
0

7
0
1
1
1
0
2
0

7
0
1
1
1
0
2
0

7
1
1
0
1
0
2
0

8
0
1
1
1
1
2
0

8
0
1
1
1
1
2
0

8
1
1
0
1
1
2
0

8
0
1
1
1
1
2
0

9
0
1
1
1
1
2
1

8
1
1
0
1
1
2
0

See footnotes at end of table.




29

MECHANICS
Table 30. FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating),
1966-69—Continued

Number of certificated programs (ratings)?./
Region and labor areal/

July 1, 1967

Aug. 1, 1966
A

P

C

A

P

C

July 15, 1968

Jan. 15, 1969

A

A

P

C

P

C

South Atlantic—Cont.:
Daytona Beach, Fla.............................................
Tallahassee, Fla....................................................

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

East South C e n tra l...............................................
Jackson, Miss........................................................
Ozark, Ala.............................................................
Hamilton, Ala.......................................................

1
0
1
0

1
0
1
0

1
0
1
0

1
0
1
0

1
0
1
0

1
0
1
0

2
0
1
1

3
1
1
1

2
0
1
1

2
0
1
1

3
1
1
1

2
0
1
1

West South C e n tral...............................................
Camden, Ark........................................................
New Orleans, La...................................................
Lake Charles, La..................................................
Stillwater, Okla....................................................
Tulsa, Okla...........................................................
Enid, Okla.............................................................
Ft. Worth, Tex.....................................................
Longview, Tex......................................................

5
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1

5
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1

5
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1

5
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1

5
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1

5
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1

6
0
1
0
1
1
0
2
1

6
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1

6
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1

7
1
1
0
1
1
0
2
1

7
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1

7
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1

Western States.............................................................

27

28

21

26

29

21

30

31

23

31

33

24

Mountain................................................................
Helena, Mont........................................................
Pocatello, Idaho ..................................................
Denver, Colo........................................................
Las Vegas, Nev.....................................................
Douglas, Ariz........................................................
Phoenix, Ariz...............................................
Logan, U ta h ........................................................
Alamagordo, N.M................................................
Roswell, N.M........................................................
Cheyenne, Wyo....................................................

5
1
1
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

6
1
1
2
0
0
1
1
0
0
0

4
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

5
1
1
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

6
1
1
2
0
0
1
1
0
0
0

7
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

7
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
1
0
0

7
1
1
2
1
0
1
1
0
0
0

6
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
1
0

7
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
1
0
0

8
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0

7
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
1
1

P a c ific ...................................................................
Moses Lake, Wash................................................
Tacoma, Wash......................................................
Spokane, Wash.....................................................
Seattle, Wash........................................................
Eugene, Ore..........................................................
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove,Calif.
. .
San Bernardino-Riverside-Ontario, Calif. . . .
San Francisco-Oak land, Calif. .......................
Stockton, Calif.....................................................
Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif...........................
Fresno, Calif.........................................................
Hollister, Calif......................................................
San Jose, Calif......................................................
San Diego, Calif...................................................
Sacramento, Calif................................................
Fairbanks, Alaska...............................................
Honolulu, H aw aii...............................................

22
1
1
1
1
1
0
2
3
1
5
2
0
1
0
1
1
1

22
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
3
1
5
r 2
0
2
0
1
1
1

17
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
5
2
4
1
1
1
0
1

21
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
3
1
5
2
0
1
0
1
1
1

23
1
1
1
1
1
0
2
3
1
5
2
0
2
0
1
1
1

17
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
5
2
1
1
1
1
0
1

23
1
1
1
1
1
0
2
4
1
5
2
0
1
0
1
1
1

24
1
1
1
1
1

17
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

24
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
4
1
5
2
0
1
0
1
1
1

25
1
1
1
2
1
0
2
4
1
5
2
0
2
0
1
1
1

17
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

0

4
1
5
2
0
2
0
1
1
1

Territories...................................................................

1

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

0

San Juan, Puerto R i c o .........................................

1

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

0

-1/Regional distribution has been converted from F A A to Labor D epartm ent pattern. Labor areas are as defined by th e U.S. Depart­
m ent o f Labor, Manpower A dm inistration.
? /K e y to ratings: A — A irfram e mechanic; P — Powerplant mechanic; C — Combined A irfram e and Powerplant mechanic.
S O U R C E : Derived fro m U.S. Dept, o f Tran spo rtatio n, Federal A viation A dm inistration, A dvisory Circulars, A C 14 7-2B , A C 1472C , A C 1 4 7 -2 D , and A C 14 7-2E .

30




Chapter IV.

U.S. Department of Defense Pilots and Mechanics

Civilian pilots

In mid-1968 relatively few civilian pilots, 560 in all,
were employed by the military services of the Depart­
ment of Defense. Sixty percent of these were working
for the Army and the remainder for the Air Force. The
Navy employs no civilian pilots.
Available information on the Defense Department’s
employment of civilian pilots for the period 1967 to
1970 is summarized in table 31. In these years, the total
number employed was expected to vary only slightly
and to remain close to the 600 level. Peak-1970
employment was estimated at 620, only 40 above peak
1967. The size of the civilian pilot force used by the
Army and the Air Force is relatively stable, resulting
from the distinctive characteristics of the programs to
which they are assigned. The Air Force employs civilian
pilots to staff reserve stations. These pilots are a cadre
necessary to maintain the reserve stations in a state of
readiness. They are civil servants working a regular work
week on maintenance and administrative tasks. When
reservists are present in force and the station is function­
ing in its training capacity, these civilian pilots, who are
themselves reserve officers, form the nucleus of the
reserve staff.31 The Army uses civilian pilots primarily
as flight instructors to train military pilots, but they also
function in other areas, e.g., for aerial mapping and for
test flying planes which have been repaired.
Many civilian pilots with the Army and Air Force have
retired from military service. Many of them, about 60
percent, had not acquired FAA commercial pilot certifi­
cates, and less than 10 percent had qualified for FAA
airline transport ratings.

The three military services reported that, in mid1968, they had about 38,400 civilian aircraft mechanics
on their payrolls, or more than a fourth of all the
144,200 civilian aircraft mechanics employed. This
number represented an increase of 700 over 1967.
Employment was expected to increase 1,100 more by
1969 but to drop sharply between 1969 and 1970. Peak
1970 civilian aircraft employment was estimated at
37,300, or 1,400 below peak 1967.
The Navy and Air Force together accounted for
nearly 98 percent of the 1968 employment. The largest
group of aircraft mechanics, 60 percent of the total, was
employed by the Air Force. Its plan to cut back its
civilian aircraft mechanic employment, if carried out,
would reduce the number by 2,500, from 23,000 at
peak 1967 to 20,500 at peak 1970. The Navy, the
second largest military employer of civilian aircraft
mechanics with 38 percent of the total, and the Army,
with about 2 percent, reported plans for increases in
civilian aircraft mechanic employment between peak
1967 and peak 1970 totaling 1,250.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PILOTS AND MECHANICS
T a b le 31 . C iv ilia n aviation , e m p lo y m e n t trends, b y service, 19 67-70

D a te

A ll
services

A rm y

N avy

A ir F o rc e

N u m b e r o f c iv ilia n p ilo ts e m p lo y e d
S u m m e r o f:
1967

..........................

570

330

0

240

1 9 6 8 ..........................
1 9 6 9 ( e s t . ) ...............

560

335

0

225

600

0

245

1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ...............

620

355
355

0

260

330
355
360

0
0

250
265
260

Peak o f:
1 9 6 7 ..........................
1 9 6 8 ( e s t . ) ...............

580
620

1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ...............

620

0

N u m b e r o f c iv ilia n a irc ra ft m echanics e m p lo y e d

Civilian mechanics
S u m m e r o f:

Substantial numbers of civilian aircraft mechanics are
employed by the Department of Defense. They are used
by the military to provide continuity in repair and
maintenance work, in addition to enlisted military
aircraft mechanics.
31
Pilots are employed in a similar capacity by the Air and
Army National Guard.




1 9 6 7 ..........................
1 9 6 8 ..........................
1 9 6 9 ( e s t . ) ...............
1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ...............

3 7 ,7 0 0
3 8 ,4 0 0
3 9 ,5 0 0
3 7 ,3 0 0

700
850
970
1 ,1 0 0

1 4 ,0 0 0
1 4 ,6 5 0
1 5 ,8 8 0
1 5 ,7 0 0

2 3 ,0 0 0
2 2 ,9 0 0
2 2 ,6 5 0
2 0 ,5 0 0

3 8 ,7 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0
3 7 ,3 0 0

840
900
1 ,1 0 0

1 4 ,7 1 0
1 5 ,6 0 0
1 5 ,7 0 0

2 3 ,1 5 0
2 3 ,5 0 0

Peak o f:
1 9 6 7 ..........................
1 9 6 8 ( e s t . ) ...............
1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ...............

2 0 ,5 0 0

S O U R C E : N a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t to ta ls re p o rte d by A r m y , N a v y , A ir F o rc e in
U S T E S survey.

31




Appendix A. Civil Aviation, Definitions of Industry Divisions and Sectors

1. A ir carriers

The civil air carrier division of the industry consists of two sectors, each of which is
considered separately in this study.
Certificated route carriers include all scheduled and nonscheduled U.S. domestic and
international airlines. These account for about 94 percent of all air carrier pilot and mechanic
employment.
Other carriers refers to supplemental air carriers which are authorized to perform passenger
and cargo charter services supplementing the scheduled route air carriers, and commercial operators
which operate on a private for-hire basis.
2. General aviation

The definition of general aviation, as used in this study, differs from that of the Federal
Aviation Administration. The term “ general aviation,” as defined by the FAA1 includes all
nonmilitary or civilian flying except that performed by the interstate and intrastate air carriers
operating large aircraft. General aviation flying, thus defined, embraces a wide range of diverse uses
of aircraft, from the transportation of personnel and cargo by business firms in privately owned
aircraft, to special uses such as for crop dusting, power and pipeline patrol, and aerial advertising, as
well as private flying for pleasure. These activities have been classified by the FAA into four major
categories: Business flying, which includes executive transportation and business transportation;
instructional flying; commercial flying, which includes air taxi, aerial application, and industrial/
special flying; and personal flying.
Since this study is concerned only with professional pilots and with aviation mechanics
employed as such, personal flying and business transportation2 (as distinguished from executive
transportation) have been eliminated from consideration and are not included in the figures for the
general aviation division of the civil aviation industry. Included, moreover, are local, State, and
nonmilitary Federal Government civilian flying activities which the FAA does not include in its
general aviation category.
The categories of general aviation which are within the scope of this study may be described
as follows:
Executive (corporate) transportation is any use of an aircraft by a corporation, company, or
other organization for the purposes of transporting its employees and/or property, not for
compensation or hire, and employing professional pilots for the operation of the aircraft.
Air taxi transportation includes both scheduled and nonscheduled air taxi service, as well as
contract service, and charter service.
Aerial application is any use of an aircraft for work purposes which concern the production of
food, fiber, and health control, in which the aircraft is used in lieu of farm implements or ground
vehicles for the particular task accomplished. It includes the distribution of chemicals or seeds in
agriculture, reforestation, and insect control. It excludes fire fighting operations. There are a

1 FAA, Economics Division, General Aviation - A Study and Forecast o f the F leet and its Use in 1975, July
1966.
2 Business transportation is defined by the FAA as any use o f an aircraft, not for compensation or hire, by
an individual for the purposes o f transportation required by a business or profession in which he is engaged. A high
proportion o f its fleet is made up o f small, single-engine aircraft which are used by individuals for transportation,
much as an automobile might be, in conducting a business or providing a service. The business pilot is not a
professional pilot, just as a man who drives a car in the course o f his business is not a chauffeur.




33

multitude of specific uses for aircraft in agriculture and forestry operations, such as insect and plant
disease control, weed and brush control, control of animal pests, application of fertilizers and trace
elements, defoliation, seeding, restocking of fish and other wild life, cloud seeding to induce
precipitation or fog dispersal, and the production of air turbulence (mainly by the downdraft from
helio blades) for frost prevention, drying fruit and athletic fields, harvesting ripe fruit and nuts,
chasing birds from crops, etc.
Industrial/special use includes specialized work allied with industrial activity, excluding
transportation and aerial application. Examples are: pipeline and highway patrolling, aerial
surveying, emergency and rescue operations, advertising, photography, helicopter hoist, fire fighting,
etc.
Instructional flying in general aviation includes any use of an aircraft for the purpose of
formal instruction with the flight instructor aboard, or with the maneuvers on the particular
flight(s) specified by the flight instructor. It excludes military and air carrier flight instruction but
does include all other forms of civil private pilot training.
Government, which the FAA does not include in general aviation but which is included in this
report, covers State and local governments and Federal Government nonmilitary agencies such as
the Coast Guard, the Federal Aviation Administration, the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and
Interior, the Tennessee Valley Authority, etc. Included are such activities as traffic surveillance and
forest protection programs, but not flight instruction at public institutions which is included under
instructional flying.
Repair stations are independent companies or firms engaged in the maintenance and repair of
aircraft. Both certificated and noncertificated repair stations are included. Data for mechanics cover
aircraft mechanics and aircraft repairmen.
3. U.S. Department o f Defense

Included are the civilian flying and aircraft maintenance activities of the Army, Navy, and Air
Force.







Appendix B.
Manpower Administration
U.S. Training and Employment Service
Questionnaires and Instructions
Including Descriptions of
Occupations

35

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Bureau of Employment Security
Form is-552 ( 3 - 6 8 )

Budget Bureau No. 44-S68002

QUESTIONNAIRE ON PILOTS A N D AIRCRAFT MECHANICS - C I V I L AIR CARRIERS
AIR TRANSPORTATION SURVEY
2. STATE CODE

1. DATE OF SURVEY 1 Month, day. year)

4. LABOR AREA NO.

3. STATE

5. LABOR AREA NAME

6. TYPE OF ACTIVITY ( Check one )
B. OTHER ( Specify )

A. CERTIFICATED ROUTE CARRIER

8. FIRM N O .

7. FLEET SIZE
A. TOTAL ( Item* 7B-7E )

B. NO. SINGLE ENGINE

C. NO. MULTI-ENGINE. PISTON

D. NO. TURBO

9. FIRM SIC
CODE

E. NO. HELICOPTER

1

TO:

C IV IL AIR CARRIERS

L

I

J

Fold)
1 0 .SELECTED O CCUPATIO NS
( If workers are not employed in either of these occupations, enter a zero.)
|

PILOTS

||

AIRCRAFT M E C H A N IC S
1

EXCLUDING
FUGHT INSTRUCTORS
ITEM

TOTAL
PILOTS

LINE
NO.

TOTAL
NUMBER

(Cols. B & D )

A

AGE 50 YEARS A N D OVER

02

ONE YEAR A G O

03

PEAK EMPL. IN 1967

04

( Enter month in paren.)

05

TOTAL

10

LESS TH A N 1 M O N TH

11

ONE M O N T H OR MORE

12

ONE YEAR HENCE

20

PEAK EMPL. IN 1968

21

( Enter month in aaren.)

23

HELICOPTER

24

30
40

C O M M E R C IA L

41

INSTRUMENT

42

FIXED-W ING ONLY

50

HELICOPTER ONLY

51

FIXED-W ING A N D HELIO

52

TOTAL PILOT HOURS IN
PAST 12 M O NTH S

60

UFLOWN

HIGHEST
RATING
HELD

NUMBER TO BE TRAINED BY
FIRM IN 1968

E

F

ELECTRI­
CIAN
AIRPLANE

ELEC­
TRONIC
MECHANIC

G

H

OTHER
MECHANICS

1

fS B *s

>

r 'W

W

'm

(

)

s h

e k

N

e l

1

\

NAME OF PERSON RECORDING THIS INFORMATION




D

C

( Cols. F -i)

AIRCRAFT
AND
ENGINE
MECHANICS

[''
(

FIXED-W ING

36

TOTAL
MECHANICS

)

(

)

•" t .

.T

w * m

m

m

m

22

AIRLINE TRANSPORT

IIHOURS

1

<

REPLACEMENT NEEDS IN
1968

PEAK EMPL. IN 1970

B

FLIGHT
IN­
STRUCTORS

01

CERTI­
FIED TO
FLY

TRAIN­
ING

PROJECTED
EMPLOYMENT

CURRENT
VACANCIES

EMPLOYMENT

CURRENT

NUMBER
WHO ARE
FLIGHT
ENGINEERS

H M B S te . r ^

’

- ♦

4

*
'

C O M M E N TS f Use reverse if additional space

i
J

V- j

TITLE

V

A...

is required.)

r

p

S
. •#&

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Bureau of Employment Security
Form ES —553 ( 3-68 )

Budget Bureau No. 44-S68002

QUESTIONNAIRE ON PILOTS A N D AIRCRAFT MECHANICS -GENERAL A V IA T IO N
AIR TRANSPORTATION SURVEY

1. DATE OF SURVEY ( Month, day. year)

2. STATE CODE

3. STATE

D. AIR TAXI

E. FLIGHT GROUND
SCHOOLS

4. LABOR AREA NO.

5« LABOR AREA NAME

6. TYPE OF ACTIVITY (C heck one)
A. BUSINESS

B. AERIAL APPLICA­
TION

C. INDUSTRY
SPECIAL

F. FEDERAL, STATE. AND
LOCAL GOVERNMENT

G. OTHER ( Specify )

7. FLEET SIZE

8. FIRM NO .

A. TOTAL I Item* 7B—7E )

TO:

B. NO. SINGLE ENGINE

C. NO. MULTI-ENGINE. PISTON

D. NO.TURBO

E. NO. HELICOPTER

9. FIRM SIC
CODE

1

V~

GENERAL A V IA T IO N

L

10. SELECTED OCCUPATIO NS

LINE
NO.

ITEM

TOTAL
PILOTS

TOTAL
M E C H A N IC S

A.
CURRENT
AGE 50 YEARS A N D O V E R
ONE YEAR A G O

03

o

PEAKEMPL. IN 1967

04

( Enter month in paren.)

5

5

« 5z

S* <
3 O

o <
>
1D Z

REPLACEMENT NEEDS IN
1968

05

TOTAL

10

LESS TH A N 1 M O N T H

11

ONE M O N T H OR MORE

12

ONE YEAR HENCE

20

PEAK EMPL. IN 1968

21

( Enter month in
" O

TRAIN­
ING

ti

So.
« < i
X “
±

02

z
5
a.

o

UJ o

FLOWN

IIhours

O Si

i

B

01

paren. )

PEAK EMPL. IN 1970

) (

(

) (

)

)

22

FIXED-W ING

23

HELICOPTER

24

NUMBER TO BE TRAINED BY
FIRM IN 1968

(

30

AIRLINE TRANSPORT

40

C O M M ER C IA L

41

INSTRUMENT

42

FIXEb-W ING ONLY

50

HELICOPTER ONLY

51

FIXED-W ING A N D HELIO

52

TOTAL PILOT HOURS IN
PAST 12 M O NTHS

60

NAME OF PERSON RECORDING THIS INFORMATION




37

Civil Air Carriers
Questionnaire on Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics for Civil
A ir Carriers and Instructions for Completion

Except for items 1 and 7, all items in the heading of the questionnaire have been completed.
Enter in item 1 the date the questionnaire is completed. Enter in item 7A (Fleet size) the total
number of planes in your firm at the time of the survey. The entry for 7A should be the sum of
items 7B through 7E. Include planes owned as well as those rented or leased from other firms.
Please note: Firms owning planes for the purpose of renting or leasing to other firms should include
only those planes in the firm which are not currently rented or leased. This distinction will avoid
duplication in the overall count of planes.
For the purpose of this survey, please assume the following conditions when completing the
questionnaire.
1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs.
2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with
no major setbacks for the next few years.
3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods,
manpower requirements, and consumption patterns.
4. The present-day normal workweek at your firm will continue through the forecast
periods.
5. Your current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule.
6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule.
7 . A irp ort fa c ilitie s w ill b e ad eq u a te.

8. No further significant change in the international situation.
9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate.
10. No further call-ups of air reservists.
If your firm is engaged in more than one air-related activity such as an air taxi service, flight
training, and operating an aircraft repair station, the data on the questionnaire should include all
pilots and/or mechanics employed in all activities in all establishments of your firm.
Include data for pilots and mechanics stationed in foreign countries who are citizens of the United
States.
Foil owing are instructions for entries on individual items in the body of the questionnaire. See pages
41-42 for descriptions of the occupations. If yoir have a copy of the Dictionary o f Occupational
Titles (DOT) Volumes I and II, third edition, you may wish to refer to the codes given at the end of
the descriptions on pages 41-42.
38




Columns A through I: Selected Occupations

In making a count of the number of workers to be entered in columns A through I, include only
those workers who spend more than one-half of their time in the specified occupations. See the
section beginning on page 41 for descriptions of occupations. On all lines, the entries in column A
should represent the sum of the entries in columns B and D, and the entries in column E should
represent the sum of entries in columns F through I.
1. Employment

a.

Enter the current total employment in each of columns A through I.
Current employment pertains to workers employed at some time during the week the survey
is made.
Current, Line 01.

(1)

b.

In column A, enter the number of pilots and enter in
column E the number of mechanics who are 50 years of age and over.

A ge 5 0 years and over, Line 02.

Year ago, Line 03.

Enter in each of columns A through I the employment during the same

week a year ago.
c.

Peak em ploym ent in 1967, Line 04.

Enter in each of columns A through I the 1967 peak
employment, and enter in columns A and E in the parenthesis below, the name of the month
this peak occurred.

d.

Replacement needs in 1968, Line 05.

Enter in each of columns A through I, the estimated
number of workers you expect to need for replacements in 1968. Estimates of replacement
needs should be the number of expected job separations due to workers (1) promoted to
another occupation, and (2) leaving the labor force for such reasons as death, retirement,
disability or entering the Armed Forces. Do not include workers who will leave to seek or
accept other jobs, or workers expected to separate from your firm because of reduction in
force, inadequate performance on the job or misconduct.

2. Current Vacancies

a.

Total, Line 10. Enter for each of columns A through I the number of current unfilled job
openings which are immediately available for filling by workers outside the firm and which
the firm is actively seeking to fill. Include all part-time, permanent, and temporary vacancies.
Exclude (1) jobs held for employees who will be recalled (2) jobs to be filled by transfer or
demotion (3) jobs held for workers on paid or unpaid leave (4) jobs filled by overtime work
which are not intended to be filled by new workers (5) job openings for which new workefs
are already hired and scheduled to start work at a later date, and (6) jobs unoccupied because
of a labor-management dispute.

(1)

Less than 1 month, Line 11.

Enter in each of columns A and B, and D through I the
number of job openings existing for less than 1 month.

(2)

One month or more, Line 12. Enter in each of columns A and B, and D through I the
number of job openings existing for 1 month or more. If an exact count is not available,
an estimate will suffice.

Note: Entries for lines 11 and 12 should add to the totals entered in line 10.




39

3. Projected Employment

a.

One year hence, Line 20.

Enter the estimated employment 1 year hence in each of columns A

through I.
b.

Peak em ploym ent in 1968, Line 21.

enter in each of columns A through I the estimated 1968
peak employment, and enter in columns A and E in parenthesis below, the name of the
month this peak is expected to occur.

c.

Peak em ploym ent in 1970, Line 22.

Enter in each of columns A through I the estimated 1970

peak employment.
(1)

Fixed-wing, Line 23.

Enter in columns A through D the estimated employment of
fixed-wing pilots during the peak month in 1970.

(2)

Helicopter, Line 24.

Enter in columns A through D the estimated employment of
helicopter pilots during the peak month in 1970.
Note: Entries for lines 23 and 24 should add to the total entered in line 22.
When making entries in lines 20, 21, and 22 please exercise care to insure that
the employment data reflect total employment and not solely the additional
workers needed. For example, if a firm has 100 pilots at the time of the survey
and the number is estimated to increase by 20 in the following year, the total
pilots 1 year hence should be reported as 120.

4. Training

a.

Num ber to be trained b y firm in 1968, Line 30. Enter in each of columns A through I the
number of workers expected to complete formal company training programs for promotion
to each of the specified occupations in 1968. Flight and ground schools should enter the
number of trainees expected to graduate in 1968, and to be qualified for employment in the
specified occupations described on pages 41-42.

5. Highest Rating Held

a.

Airline transport, Line 40.

Enter in each of columns A through D the number of pilots who
possess an airline transport rating.

b.

Commercial, Line 41.

Enter in each of columns A through D the number of pilots whose
highest rating is a commercial rating.
Note: The total of entries in lines 40 and 41 may be equal to but cannot exceed the
number of pilots in line 01.
(1)

Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots with
commercial ratings in Line 41 who also hold instrument ratings.

Instrument, Line 42.

6. Certified to Fly

a.

40




Fixed-wing only, Line 50. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots
certificated to fly only fixed-wing aircraft.

b.

Helicopter only , Line 5 L

Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots
certificated only to fly helicopters.

c.

Fixed-wing and helicopter, Line 52.

Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of
pilots certificated to fly both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft.
Note: The total of entries in lines 50, 51, and 52 should equal the entry in line 01.

7. Hours Flown
Total pilot hours flow n in past 12 months, Line 60. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the
total number of hours flown by pilots in your firm in the 12 months preceding the survey week.
If this is not available, an estimate will suffice.
Comments

Please supply any information which would be helpful in analyzing future needs for pilots and
mechanics. Examples are plans for expansion of facilities, increase in size of plane fleet, or
technological changes or trends which may, in your opinion, point to the need for training
programs for additional pilots and mechanics or upgrading the skills of those already in those
occupations. Also explain changes in the nature and extent of formal company training programs
planned in future years, or difficulty in recruiting to fill existing job vacancies, particularly
vacancies open 1 month or longer.

Descriptions of Occupations

Columns A, B, and D: Pilots

Includes occupations concerned with piloting airplanes for the transportation of passengers, freight,
and mail, and other purposes such as charting the courses of planes by the use of instruments,
charts, celestial observation, and dead reckoning. Must be federally licensed. Includes occupations
concerned with the supervision of flight operations and maintenance when a pilot’s or navigator’s
license is required. Included are chief pilots, instructor pilots, check pilots, airline pilots, and
executive pilots. (See Dictionary o f Occupational T itles-D O T codes 196.168, .268, .283, and
621.281.)
Column C: Flight Engineer—Pilot

Although an individual must be a certificated pilot, he must also meet the qualifications of a flight
engineer as described below:
Makes preflight, inflight, and postflight inspections, adjustments, and minor repairs to insure safe
and efficient operation of aircraft. Inspects aircraft prior to takeoff for defects sufch as fuel or oil
leaks and malfunction in electrical, hydraulic, or pressurization systems according to preflight
checklist. Verifies passenger and cargo distribution, and amount of fuel to insure that weight and
balance of specifications are met. Monitors control panel to verify aircraft performance, and
regulates engine speed according to instructions of pilot (DOT code 621.281).




41

Column D: Flight Instructor

Although an individual must be a certificated pilot, he must also meet the qualifications of a flight
instructor as described below:
Trains new and experienced company airline pilots in policy and use of equipment. Instructs new
pilots in company regulations and procedures. Conducts courses for experienced company pilots to
familiarize them with new equipment. May conduct review courses for pilots. Also includes
instructor pilots employed by certificated flight schools (DOT code 196.228).
Column F: Certificated Aircraft and Engine Mechanics

Services, repairs, and overhauls aircraft and aircraft engines to insure airworthiness; repairs, replaces,
and assembles parts, such as wings, fuselage, tail assembly, landing gear, control cables, propeller
assembly, and fuel and air tanks, using tools, such as power shears, sheet metal breaker, arc and
acetylene welding equipment, rivet gun, and air and electric drills to rebuild or replace airframes or
its components. Consults manufacturers’ manuals and airlines’ maintenance manuals for specifica­
tions, and to determine feasibility of repair or replacement according to malfunction (DOT code
621.281).
Column G: Certificated Airplane Electrician

Monitors and repairs airplane electrical equipment, using handtools. Examines conduits for breaks
and weak areas before or after removal from airplane and replaces defective segments. Rewires
airplane and arranges wiring and conduits so they do not become entangled or otherwise interfere
with fuel lines or other equipment. Inspects and tests function boxes. Tests, repairs, and replaces
airplane lighting systems including wiring, running, and landing light. Does not repair airplane
ignition systems (DOT code 825.381).
Column H: Electronic Mechanics, as applied to Aviation

Repairs electronic equipment such as radar systems, telemetering systems, transmitters, antennas,
and servomechanics, following blueprints and manufacturers’ specifications, and using handtools
and test instruments. Tests faulty equipment and applies knowledge of functional operation of
electronic units and systems to diagnose cause of malfunction. Tests electronic components and
circuits to locate defects, using instruments such as oscilloscopes, signal generators, ammeters, and
voltmeters (DOT code 828.281).
Column I: Other Mechanics

Includes certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanics not specified in
the questionnaire. Also includes mechanics engaged in comparable work who have received some
training in one or more of the aviation mechanic specialties but who are not certificated.

General Aviation
Questionnaire on Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics for Firms
in General Aviation and Instructions for Completion

Except for items 1 and 7, all items in the heading of the questionnaire have been completed. Enter
in item 1 the date the questionnaire is completed. Enter in item 7A (Fleet Size) the total number of
42




planes in your firm at the time of the survey. The entry for 7A should be the sum of items 7B
through 7E. Include planes owned as well as those rented or leased from other firms. Please note:
Firms owning planes for the purpose of renting or leasing to other establishments should include
only those planes in the firm which are not currently rented or leased. This distinction will avoid
duplication in the overall count of planes.
For the purpose of this survey, please assume the following conditions when completing the
questionnaire.
1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs.
2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with
no major setbacks for the next few years.
3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods,
manpower requirements, and consumption patterns.
4. The present-day normal workweek at your firm will continue through the forecast
periods.
5. Your current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule.
6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule.
7. Airport facilities will be adequate.
8. No further significant change in the international situation.
9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate.
10. No further call-ups of air reservists.
If your firm is engaged in more than one air-related activity such as an air taxi service, flight
training, and operating an aircraft repair station, the data on the questionnaire should include all
pilots and/or mechanics employed in all activities in all establishments of your firm.
Include data for pilots and mechanics stationed in foreign countries who are citizens of the United
States.
Following are instructions for entries of individual items in the body of the questionnaire. See pages
46-47 for descriptions of the occupations. If you have a copy of the Dictionary o f Occupational
Titles (DOT) Volumes I and II, third edition, you may wish to refer to the codes given at the end of
the descriptions on pages 46-47.
Selected Occupations

In making a count of workers to be entered in columns A and B, include only those workers who
spend more than one-half of their time in these occupations. See the section beginning on page 46
for descriptions of occupations.




43

1. Employment

a.

Enter the current total employment in each of columns A and B. Current
employment pertains to workers employed at some time during the week the survey is made.
Current, Line 01.

(1)

b.

Enter the number of pilots and the number of mechanics
who are 50 years of age and over.

A ge 5 0 years and over, Line 02.

Year ago, Line 03.

Enter in each of columns A and B the employment during the same week a

year ago.
c.

Peak em ploym ent in 1967, Line 04.

Enter in each of columns A and B the 1967 peak
employment and enter in the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak occurred.

d.

Replacem ent needs in 1968, Line 05.

Enter in each of columns A and B, the estimated
number of workers you expect to need for replacements in 1968. Estimates of replacement
needs should be the number of expected job separations due to workers (1) promoted to
another occupation, and (2) leaving the labor force for such reasons as death, retirement,
disability or entering the Armed Forces. Do not include workers who will leave to seek or
accept other jobs, or workers expected to separate from your firm because of reduction in
force, inadequate performance on the job or misconduct.

2. Current Vacancies

a.

Total, Line 10. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of current unfilled job openings
which are immediately available for filling by workers outside the firm and which the firm is
actively seeking to fill. Include all part-time, permanent, and temporary vacancies. Exclude
(1) jobs held for employees who will be recalled (2) jobs to be filled by transfer or demotion
(3) jobs held for workers on paid or unpaid leave (4) jobs filled by overtime work which are
not intended to be filled by new workers (5) job openings for which new workers are already
hired and scheduled to start work at a later date, and (6) jobs unoccupied because of a
labor-management dispute.

(1)

Less than 1 month, Line 11.

Enter in each of columns A and B the number of job
openings existing for less than 1 month.

(2)

One month or more, Line 12. Enter in each of columns A and B the number o f job
openings existing for 1 month or more. If an exact count is not available, an estimate will
suffice.

Note: Entries for lines 11 and 12 should add to the totals entered in line 10, total
number of vacancies.
3. Projected Employment

a.

One year hence, Line 20.

Enter the estimated employment 1 year hence in each of columns A

and B.
b.

44




Enter the estimated 1968 peak employment and enter in
the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak is expected to occur in each of
columns A and B.

Peak em ploym ent in 1968, Line 21.

c.

Peak em ploym ent in 1970, Line 22.

Enter the estimated 1970 peak employment in each of

columns A and B.
(1)

Fixed-wing , Line 23.

Enter in column A the estimated employment of fixed-wing pilots
during the peak month in 1970.

(2)

Helicopter, Line 24.

Enter in column A the estimated employment of helicopter pilots
during the peak month in 1970.
Note: Entries for fines 23 and 24 should add to the total entered in fine 22.
When making entries in fines 20, 21, and 22 please exercise care to insure that
the employment data reflect total employment and not solely the additional
workers needed. For example, if a firm has 100 pilots at the time of the survey
and the number is estimated to increase by 20 in the following year, the total
pilots 1 year hence should be reported as 120.

4. Training

a.

Enter in each of columns A and B the
number of workers expected to complete formal company training programs for promotion
to each of the specified occupations in 1968. Flight and ground schools should enter in each
of columns A and B the number of trainees expected to graduate in 1968 and be qualified for
employment in the specified occupations described on pages 41-42 of this attachment.

Number to be trained b y firm in 1968, Line 30.

5. Highest Rating Held

a.

Airline transport, Line 40.

b.

Commercial, Line 41.

Enter the number of pilots who possess an airline transport rating.

Enter the number of pilots whose highest rating is a commercial rating.

Note: The total of entries in fines 40 and 41 may be equal to but cannot exceed, the
number of pilots in fine 01.
(1)

6.

Enter the number of pilots with commercial ratings in fine 41
who also hold instrument ratings.

Instrument, Line 42.

Certified to Fly

a.

Fixed-wing only, Line 50.

Enter the number of pilots certificated to fly only fixed-wing

aircraft.
b.

Helicopter only, Line 51.

Enter the number of pilots certificated only to fly helicopters.

c.

Fixed-wing and helicopter, Line 52.

Enter the number of pilots certificated to fly both

fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft.




Note: The total of entries in lines 50, 51, and 52 should be equal to the entry in fine
01 .

45

7. Hours Flown
Total pilot hours flow n in past month , Line 60. Enter the total number of hours flown by pilots
in your firm in the 12 months preceding the survey week. If this is not available, an estimate will
suffice.

Comments

Please supply any information which would be helpful in analyzing future needs for pilots and
mechanics. Examples are plans for expansion of facilities, increase in size of plane fleet, or
technological changes or trends which may, in your opinion, point to the need for training
programs for additional pilots and mechanics or upgrading the skills of those already in those
occupations. Also explain changes in the nature and extent of formal company training programs
planned in future years, or difficulty in. recruiting to fill existing job vacancies, particularly
vacancies open 1 month or longer.

Descriptions of Occupations

Pilots (Column A)

Includes occupations concerned with piloting airplanes for the transportation of passengers, freight,
mail, agricultural operations, photography, and other purposes such as charting the courses of planes
by the use of instruments, charts, celestial observation, and dead reckoning. Must be federally
licensed. Includes occupations concerned with the supervision of flight operations and maintenance
when a pilot’s or navigator’s license is required. Included are chief pilots, instructor pilots, check
pilots, airline pilots, and executive pilots. (See Dictionary o f Occupational T itles-D OT codes
196.168, .268, and .283.)
Mechanics (Column B)
1. Flight Engineer

Makes preflight, inflight, and postflight inspections, adjustments, and minor repairs to insure safe
and efficient operation of aircraft. Inspects aircraft prior to takeoff for defects such as fuel or oil
leaks and malfunction in electrical, hydraulic, or pressurization systems according to preflight
checklist. Verifies passenger and cargo distribution, and amount of fuel to insure that weight and
balance of specifications are met. Monitors control panel to verify aircraft performance, and
regulates engine speed according to instructions of pilot (DOT code 621.281).
2. Certificated Aircraft and Engine Mechanics

Services, repairs, and overhauls aircraft and aircraft engines to insure airworthiness; repairs,
replaces, and assembles parts, such as wings, fuselage, tail assembly, landing gear, control cables,
propeller assembly, and fuel and air tanks, using tools, such as power shears, sheet metal breaker,
arc and acetylene welding equipment, rivet gun, and air and electric drills to rebuild or replace
airframes of its components. Consults manufacturers’ manuals and airlines’ maintenance manuals
for specifications, and to determine feasibility of repair or replacement according to malfunction
(DOT code 621.281).
46




3. Certificated Airplane Electrician

Monitors and repairs airplane electrical equipment, using handtools. Examines conduits for
breaks and weak areas before or after removal from airplane and replaces defective segments.
Rewires airplane and arranges wiring and conduits so they do not become entangled or otherwise
interfere with fuel lines or other equipment. Inspects and tests function boxes. Tests, repairs, and
replaces airplane lighting systems including wiring, running, and landing light. Does not repair
airplane ignition systems (DOT code 825.381).
4. Electronic Mechanics, as applied to Aviation

Repairs electronic equipment such as radar systems, telemetering systems, transmitters, antennas,
and servomechanics, following blueprints and manufacturers’ specifications, and using handtools
and test instruments. Tests faulty equipment and applies knowledge of functional operation of
electronic units and systems to diagnose cause of malfunction. Tests electronic components and
circuits to locate defects, using instruments such as oscilloscopes, signal generators, ammeters,
and voltmeters (DOT code 828.281).
5. Other Mechanics

Include certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanics not specified
in the questionnaire. Also includes mechanics engaged in comparable work who have received
some training in one or more of the aviation mechanic specialties but who are not certificated.




Appendix C. USTES Survey Scope and Methodology

The April, 1968 survey of pilots and mechanics in civil aviation conducted by the U.S.
Training and Employment Service (USTES) and the affiliated State employment security agencies
covered all civil air carriers, about 10 percent of the estimated number of firms in general aviation,
and the three military services of the U.S. Department of Defense. Descriptions of industry divisions
and sectors included appear in appendix A.
Format of Survey Questionnaire

The questionnaire used in the survey was developed with the assistance and concurrence of
the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Defense, the two agencies sponsoring
the study. Space limitations on the questionnaire, and the effort to keep it as simple as possible,
prevented the gathering of more detailed information.
The questionnaire used to survey the civil air carriers differed slightly from that designed for
general aviation firms. While “line item” totals were the same on both questionnaires, that for civil
air carriers requested detailed information on various categories of pilots and mechanics. The
questionnaire for general aviation firms requested information only on totals for pilots and
mechanics. Copies of the two questionnaires and instructions for their completion are included in
Appendix B.
Survey Conducted by State Agencies

The survey was by mail and was conducted by the local offices of the State employment
security agencies affiliated with the U.S. Department of Labor’s Manpower Administration. Each
State agency was furnished with lists of selected names and addresses of firms to be surveyed in its
State. At least one followup by mail was made on every nonrespondent. Fund limitations restricted
the number of personal followups that could be made as part of the study.
Assumptions for Respondents

Employers were asked to assume the following in making their projections of employment:
1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs.
2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with
no major setbacks for the next few years.
.3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods,
manpower requirements, and consumption patterns.
4. The present-day normal work-week of the firm will continue through the forecast
periods.
5. Current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule.
6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule.
7. Airport facilities will be adequate.
48




8.

There will be no significant change in the international situation.

9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate.
10. There will be no further call-ups of air reservists.
Complete listings of establishments to use as a basis for sample selection were not readily
available in many of the individual air transportation categories. However, after exploration with
industry associations and other sources in the various sectors, USTES staff developed a reasonably
complete listing of employers upon which the survey sample was based.
Listed below are the aviation categories covered in the survey and the sources of firm names
used in drawing the sample for each category.
Category

Source

Civil Air Carriers
Certificated route air carriers

Air Transport Association of America

Other (supplemental, commercial and
intrastate carriers)

Federal Aviation Administration

General Aviation
Executive transportation

National Business Aircraft Association

Aerial application

National Aerial Applicators Association, and State
Aerial Applicator Associations

Air taxi, pilot and mechanic schools,
and

FAA directories and the World Aviation Directory

Industrial/special

National Aerial Photographic Association, and firms
indicating special activities on their questionnaires

Government—Federal nondefense, State,
and local

National Association of Aviation Officials, and State
employment security agencies. Coast Guard, FAA,
TVA, Justice, Agriculture, and Interior. The remain­
ing Federal agencies indicated that very few or no
pilots or mechanics were employed.

Department of Defense

Army, Navy, Air Force

Cooperation Received

The U.S. Training and Employment Service and the affiliated State agencies received fine
cooperation and assistance from many sources in obtaining responses from surveyed establishments
and firms. The General Aviation District Offices (GADOS) of the FAA contacted and obtained
responses from a number of aerial application firms, flight and ground schools, and repair stations
which had failed to respond initially. In addition, these GADOS provided the State agencies with
information on FAA-certificated aviation schools in selected labor areas for use in preparing




49

statements assessing the current labor supply-demand and training situation for pilots and
mechanics. The Air Transport Association of America, an organization of the scheduled airlines,
encouraged all of its members in advance to complete and return the questionnaires. Moreover, the
ATA supplied estimates of missing data on airline questionnaires and followed up on questionnaires
from selected nonresponding airlines.
Problems Encountered in the Survey

The identification and survey of firms in the civil air carrier division presented relatively few
problems because of the relatively small number of firms. Most air carriers are members of the Air
Transport Association of America, and most are required to make reports to the Civil Aeronautics
Board on their employment and operations.
This was not true of the survey of general aviation firms, however. As a result of the problems
encountered in covering this division of the industry, special procedures for the collection of data
had to be developed.
The assembly of sufficiently large lists of establishment names in each of the general aviation
sectors from which to draw a 10-percent sample was a major problem. The lists of establishments
available from membership rosters of various associations of aviation-oriented firms represented
only a portion of the estimated total. For example, the membership directory of the National
Business Aircraft Association contained less than 1,000 names—a total considerably lower than the
estimated total number of firms using planes for transportation of business executives. Moreover,
many membership lists included firms certificated by the FAA for two or more aviation activities.
The FAA directories are limited to “ certificated” schools, air taxi firms, and aircraft repair stations.
The identification of firms in the industrial/special category was particularly difficult as this activity
was usually a sideline for many firms. Firms known as “ fixed base operators,” were also difficult to
categorize for purposes of the survey since they engage in multiple aviation sendees.
Finally, there was the problem of assuring adequate response due to: ( 1) the absence of any
overall organization of these firms to encourage response; ( 2 ) the inclination of many firms to
distrust the government’s motive in requesting the information; (3) the lack of incentive for many
firms to complete the questionnaire because of their failure to appreciate the ultimate benefits of
the study; and, finally, (4) the large turn-over among these firms, resulting iii no response from firms
no longer in business.

Establishment Response in Survey

The overall establishment response rate for the survey was 53 percent, with civil air carriers
showing a higher rate as follows:
Civil A ir Carriers
Number o f questionnaires1

S e n t ......................................................................... . . .
Received ................................................................ . . .
Percent r e s p o n s e .....................................................

Total

2 ,3 6 4
1,251
53

Total

Certificated
route
carriers

Other

88
55
63

42
34
81

46
21
46

General
aviation

2 ,2 7 6
1 ,19 6
52

1 Excludes the three military services and 1 1 2 questionnaires received from various State and local
government establishments in 4 0 States.

The coverage of pilot and mechanic employment by certificated route air carriers was
substantially higher than the 81 percent establishment response rate would indicate. The




nonrespondents in the sector were mainly small carriers employing comparatively few pilots and
mechanics.
Adjustments to Survey Data

The civil air carriers participating in the survey appeared to overestimate their short-term
growth in pilots and mechanics. For example, the certificated route carriers indicated an increase of
8.2 percent in pilot employment between 1967 and 1968, or nearly double the actual increase of
4.5 percent subsequently reported by the Federal Aviation Administration. Accordingly, the survey
data for 1968 were adjusted to show the actual rate of growth. Corresponding adjustments were
made for other years on the assumption that the carriers also overestimated their prospective pilot
employment growth. These adjustments affected projected gains between 1968 and 1969, and
between peak employment in 1968 and peak employment in 1970. Appropriate adjustments were
also made in the data for civil air carrier mechanics. However, no adjustments were made in the
survey data for general aviation firms as no FAA “base employment” data were available for any
year.
Inflation of Survey Data to National Totals

The 1967 and 1968 survey employment data for pilots and mechanics in civil air carrier firms
were inflated to national totals on the basis of their relationship to the FAA figures for employment
on certificate route air carriers for those years. Except for “hours flown by pilots,” the other items
on the questionnaire were inflated by the same factor as used to inflate the 1968 employment.
“ Hours flown” were inflated by the same factor used to inflate the 1967 employment, since this
item was for “the past 12 months.”
The survey employment data for general aviation firms were inflated to national totals by the
ratio of the BLS employment estimates for 1967 to the survey employment data for 1967. (See
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Requirements fo r Pilots and Mechanics in Civil Aviation, 1 9 6 7 -7 7 ,
May 12, 1969).
Interpretation of Questionnaire Data
Peak E m ploym ent: Employers were asked for the month and level of peak employment for
pilots and mechanics in 1967, 1968, and 1970. While the “ peak employment” figure for a single
employer would be valid, the sum of these figures probably would overstate the peak employment
for the Nation. This is due to the fact that the individual employer peak months were spread over
the year.
Training: Respondents were asked to report the number of persons expected to complete
formal company training in 1968 for promotion to, or to qualify for, specified pilot and mechanic
occupations in 1968. There were clear indications on many questionnaires that both employers and
schools reported, instead, the number of employees or students in training. For this reason, these
data are overstated.
Editing the Questionnaires: In addition to checking for internal consistency and arithmetical
balance, each general aviation questionnaire was reviewed to determine that the firm was classified
in the category most representative of its major activity, i.e., air taxi, school, aerial applicator, etc.,
as many firms indicated more than one activity.
Maintenance workers: The BLS and FAA data for civil air carrier mechanics include an
estimated 3,000 maintenance workers, i.e., carpenters, electricians, etc., who work in air
transportation establishments, but who are not considered aviation mechanics. The USTES survey
data exclude these workers; they cover aircraft mechanics only.




51




Pant II
Long-Range
Manpower Requirements




Contents

Page

Summary...............................................................................................................................

1

Chapter I. U.S. air carrier industry.......................................................................................
Industry outlook ..........................................................................................................
Employment trends.......................................................................................................
Pilots.....................................................................................................................
Mechanics.....................................
Projected pilot and mechanic requirements ..................................................................
Pilot requirements...............................................................................................
Mechanic requirements .....................

3

Chapter II. General aviation ...............................................................................................
Outlook .......................................................................................................................
Pilot employment trends...............................................................................................
Mechanic employment trends................ . ....................................................................
Projected pilot and mechanic requirements..................................................................
Pilot requirements...............................................................................................
Mechanic requirements.......................................................................................
Chapter III. Government .....................................................................................................
Pilot employment trends................................................................................................
Mechanic employment trends..................................
Projected pilot and mechanic requirements..................................................................
Pilot requirements...............................................................................................
Mechanic requirements.......................................................................................
Chapter IV. Projection methods ..........................................................................................
Pilot and mechanic employment requirements .............................................................
U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method A ..................................................................
Average crews per aircraft ..................................................................................
Pilots per c r e w .....................................................................................................
U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method B ..................................................................
Revenue aircraft hours ..........................................................
Average airborne s p e e d .....................................
Tim e....................................................................................................................
U.S. air carrier mechanic projection method ................................................................
Revenue aircraft hours .......................................................................................
Average airborne sp e e d .......................................................................................
Tim e....................................................................................................................
General aviation pilot and mechanic employment requirements ...................................
General aviation pilot projection m e th o d ..................
Current pilot employment .............................
General aviation aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft and flying activity, 1967,1972,
and 1977 .......................................................................................................
General aviation pilot aircraft ratios.....................................................................
General aviation mechanic projection method .............................................................




ii

3
5
5

7
8
8

9
11
11
12

13
14
14
15
17
17
17
17
17

18
19
19
19

22
22
22
24
24
26
26
28
28
28
29
29
29

Contents—Continued
Page

Government pilot and mechanic employment requirements..........................................
Pilot and mechanic replacement requirements .............................................................
U.S. air carrier pilot replacement needs...............................................................
General aviation and government pilot replacement n e e d s..................................
U.S. air carrier, general aviation, and government mechanic replacement needs . .

33
34
34
35
39

Tables:
1 . Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

7.
8.

9.

10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

18.




growth and from retirements and deaths, by sector of civil aviation, 1968-77,
1968-72, and 1973-77 ..................... . ............................................................
2
Employment of pilots and mechanics, by sector of civil aviation, estimated 1967
and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 ................................
2
Scheduled and nonscheduled route air carrier activity, selected measures, 1950,
1955,1958-67 ....................................................................................................
3
Aircraft in certificated route air carrier operations, by type of aircraft, 1950,1955,
1958-67
Total employment and pilot and mechanic employment in certificated route air
carriers, 1950,1955, 1958-67 .............................................................................
5
Revenue passenger miles flown by scheduled route air carriers, by type of traffic,
estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977 ..................................................
7
Total aircraft in the service of U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and projected 1972
and 1977 ............................................................................................................
7
Employment of pilots and mechanics by U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and
projected employment requirements,1972 and 1977
Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment
growth and from retirements and deaths, by U.S. air carriers, 1968-77, 1968-72,
and 1973-77 .......................................................................................................
9
Revenue aircraft hours, by type of aircraft, U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and
forecast 1972 and 1977
10
Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1958-67 and forecast 1972 and
1977
Estimated hours flown in general aviation, by type of flying, 1950-67 and fiscal
years 1972 and 1977 (thousands of h ou rs).......................................................... 13
Estimated distribution of general aviation aircraft, by type of flying, 1967 ........... 14
Active general aviation aircrafts, by type of aircraft, estimated 1967 and forecast
1972 and 1977
Estimated employment of pilots in general aviation, by type of flying, 1967 . . . .
15
Estimated mechanics employed in general aviation, by type of repair station, 1967 . 15
Projected requirements for general aviation pilots and mechanics resulting from
employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77, 1968-72, and
1973-77
Employment of pilots and mechanics in general aviation, estimated 1967 and
projected employment requirements,1972 and 1977
iii

8

16

Contents—Continued
Page

Tables—Continued
19. Employment of pilots and mechanics in government, by type o f government,
estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 . . . .
20. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics in government resulting from
employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77, 1968-72, and
1973-77
21. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1972 (method A) . .
22. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1977 (method A) . .
23. Data inputs for projecting requirements for U.S. route air carrier pilots (method B)
and mechanics ...............................................................................
24. Selected results for regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for
pilots in U.S. route air carriers (method B ) ........................................................
25. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for
mechanics in U.S. route air carriers ..................................................................
26. Ratio of mechanics to aircraft, U.S. route air carriers, 1953-67 .............................
27. Preliminary and final estimates of the instructional flying aircraft fleet, by type of
aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977
28. Estimated general aviation aircraft fleet, by type of flying and type of aircraft,
1967,1972, and 1977 ................................, ..................................................
29. Procedure for estimating executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying pilot/
aircraft ratios, by type of aircraft, 1967 ..........................................................
30. Estimated ratio of pilots to aircraft in general aviation, by type of aircraft and type
of flying, 1967 ..................................................................................................
31. Average annual utilization of general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1964,
and forecast to 1975
32. Procedure for projecting employment requirements for pilots in instructional
flying, by type of aircraft, 1972 and 1977 ........................................................
33. Procedure for estimating general aviation pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-72
and 1973-77 ............................................
34. Procedure for estimating government pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-77,
1968-72, and 1973-77
35. Estimated general aviation pilot retirements and deaths, by type of flying, 1968-77,
1968-72, and 1973-77
36. Procedure for estimating U.S. air carrier mechanic retirement and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................
37. Procedure for estimating general aviation mechanic retirement and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................
38. Procedure for estimating government mechanic retirements and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................




IV

IB

18
20
20
24
24
26
28
29
31
32
32
33
34
36
36
37
37
38
38

Contents—Continued
Page

Charts:
1. Domestic intercity passenger miles, selected carriers, 1950-66 ................................
2. Employment in U.S. certificated route air carriers, and selected industry groups,
1950-67
3. Employment of pilots by U.S. route air carriers, 1950-66, and projected employ­
ment requirements, 1972 and 1977 (method A) ...............................................
4. Pilot monthly pay hours and flight hours, experience of a major U.S. air carrier,
1957-66, and BLS projections, 1972 and 1977 ..................................................
5. Employment of pilots in U.S. route air carriers, actual 1953-66, and calculated
1953-66,1972, and 1977 (method B) ...............................................................
6. Employment of mechanics in U.S. route air carriers, actual 1953-66, and calculated
1953-66,1972, and 1977




v

4
6
21
23
25
27




Summary

During the past two decades, airplane pilots and
mechanics have been among the Nation’s fastest growing
occupations. In 1967, nearly 60,000 pilots and 103,500
mechanics were employed by the civil aviation industry.
A continuation o f this rapid employment expansion is
expected during the 1967-77 period. The purpose of this
study was to anticipate future needs and to establish,
where data permitted, a sound procedure for estimating
future requirements for these highly trained workers.
The projections presented in this study are based on
the levels of aviation activity forecast by the Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA).1 Therefore, in evaluat­
ing the estimates of future manpower requirements, the
assumptions underlying the FAA forecasts should be
borne in mind. FAA defines the essential elements
supporting its forecasts as:
A continuing high rate o f growth in the economy as
measured by GNP and the assumption that the passenger
fare structure will continue to decline. Gross national
product is forecast at an average real growth rate o f 4 .2 5
percent, and average fares are forecast to decline, in real
terms, between 2 and 3 percent per year.2

The FAA projections of aviation activity also were
developed under the implicit assumption that the Viet
Nam hostilities would not continue into the 1970’s.
Expansion of employment in civil aviation is ex­
pected to be very rapid during the 1967-77 decade.
Growth o f the U.S. air carrier sector of civil aviation will
be stimulated primarily by the rising transportation
needs of the Nation’s growing population, coupled with
a continuing shift to air travel at the expense of other
modes of commercial transportation. General aviation
activity will continue to expand, spurred by population
growth, rising personal and business incomes, and
increased leisure time. Convenience and competitive
advantage will attract more and more business firms to
operate their own aircraft. The rising need for fast,
convenient transportation service from airport to down­
town business centers or other airports and between
smaller urban areas will increase the need for air-taxi
service. Growth in activities such as crop dusting,
pipeline patrolling, and the use of aircraft in certain
construction activities also will contribute to the growth
of general aviation. In Federal, State and local govern­




ments, flying activities will continue to expand slowly,
as aircraft are used increasingly in activity such as traffic
surveillance, forest conservation protection programs,
and flight instruction at public institutions.
The expansion of all civil aviation activities depends
on the availability of qualified airplane pilots and
mechanics. Requirements for pilots in civil aviation,
resulting from both occupational employment growth
and replacement needs, are expected to be approxi­
mately 60,000 through the decade ending in 1977. (See
table 1.) More than 82 percent of total employment
requirements, or about 50,000 workers, will result from
growth as pilot employment requirements increase from
an estimated 60,000 in 1967 to a projected 110,000 by
1977. (See table 2.) Approximately three-fifths, or
about 37,000 of all pilot requirements will be needed
during the 1973-77 period. The general aviation sector
of the industry alone will require over 36,000 new pilots
over the decade, with more than half of these needs
occurring in the last half of the projection period. Total
requirements for aircraft mechanics throughout civil
aviation are expected to number 75,000, and most of
these requirements will result from occupational growth
as mechanic employment needs increase sharply from
approximately 104,000 to 164,000 between 1967 and
1977. Unlike the situation for pilots, however, the need
for mechanics is divided more equally between the first
and second half of the projection period. Of the 75,000
new mechanics that will be needed, two-thirds, or
50,000, will be employed in general aviation.
1 New air carrier forecasts to 1 9 7 9 have been released
recently by the FAA. Although direct comparisons for the target
year 1 9 7 7 cannot be made, indications are that several key
variables (e.g., number o f aircraft hours flown) may be some­
what higher in the more recent report. Consequently, the
projections o f pilot and mechanic requirements presented in this
report may be understated, particularly in a specific flying
activity, such as instructional flying, to the extent that the FAA
forecasts for 1 9 7 7 have been revised. Overall, however, such
changes should not change substantially the future pilot and
mechanic employment requirements shown in this report.
2A viation F orecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Avia­
tion Administration, January 1 9 6 7 ), p. 3.
N o te: The Federal Aviation Administration designation has
changed recently from the Federal Aviation Agency. The title
Federal Aviation Administration is used in this study to apply to
both designations.

1

K)

Table 1. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and
from retirements and deaths, by sector of civil aviation, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77
Projected requirements
Occupation and
civil aviation
sector

1968-77

1968-72

1973-77

Average
annual
requirements
1968-77

Total
requirements

Growth

Replacements

Total
requirements

Growth

Replacements

Total
requirements

Growth

Replacements

P ilo ts ..........................
Air carriers............
General aviation . .
Government . . . .

60,200
22,800
36,200
1,200

49,600
18,000
30,700
900

10,600
4,800
5,500
300

23,400
6,500
16,300
600

19,600
5,000
14,100
500

3,900
1,500
2,200
200

36,800
16,300
19,900
600

30,100
13,000
16,600
500

6,800
3,300
3,300
200

6,000
2,300
3,600
100

Mechanics.................
Air carriers............
General aviation . .
Government . . . .

75,000
24,700
50,200
100

60,400
18,000
42,400
—

14,600
6,700
7,800
100

37,200
12,100
25,000
100

30,700
9,000
21,700
—

6,500
3,100
3,300
100

37,900
12,600
25,200
100

29,700
9,000
20,700
—

8,200
3,600
4,500
100

7,500
2,500
5,000
(1/)

-1/Less than 50.

-2/Employment estimates in this bulletin are for 1967; projected requirements reflect the 1968 to 1977 period.
N O T E : Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.
S O U R C E : Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 2.

Employment o f pilots and mechanics, by sector of civil aviation, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Occupation and civil
aviation sector

Estimated
1967
employment

Employment
requirements

Net growth

1972

1977

Total
1968-77

1968-72

1973-77

P ilo ts..........................................................................................................................................
Air c a rrie r.....................................................................................................................
General aviation.............................................................................................................
Government!/................................................................................................................

60,100
33,100
25,000
2,000

79,700
38,100
39,200
2,400

109,700
51,100
55,700
2,900

49,600
18,000
30,700
900

19,600
5,000
14,100
500

30,100
13,000
16,600
500

Mechanics.................................................................................................................................
Air c a rrie r......................................................................................................................
General aviation.............................................................................................................
Government!/....................................................................................................... ..

103,500
52,000
50,400
1,100

134,200
61,000
72,100
1,100

163,900
70,000
92,800
1,100

60,400
18,000
42,400
—

30,700
9,000
21,700

29,700
9,000
20,700




^ E x c lu d e s all civilian pilots and mechanics employed by U.S. Departm ent of Defense as well as m ilitary personnel.
N O T E : Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.
S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

Chapter I. U.S. Air Carrier Industry3
The U.S. air carrier industry is one of the fastest
growing industries in the United States. As illustrated in
chart 1, the number of domestic intercity passenger
miles flown by scheduled air carriers has grown at a
tremendous pace during the 1950’s and 1960’s. Com­
mercial motor carrier passenger miles declined from
1951 through 1959, then moved upward through 1966
but did not exceed the 1951 level. Since 1951, intercity
passenger miles traveled by railroads have declined.4
As table 3 indicates, only 10.3 billion revenue
passenger miles (including domestic and international)
were flown by air carriers in 1950; yet, by the end of the
decade this number had nearly quadrupled, reaching
37.8 billion in 1959. The rapid rise in passenger traffic
continued unabated into the present decade, and by
1967 revenue passenger miles topped 111.8 billion.
Other indicators of airline activity showed similar
increases. Between 1950 and 1967, revenue ton-miles
grew from 1.4 billion in 1950 to 15.7 billion; revenue
passenger originations jumped from 19.5 million to
135.4 million.5
Although employment has increased at a rapid pace,
the growth in the volume of air carrier traffic has been
much greater. This faster growth in traffic has been
possible because of rapid productivity gains in the
industry. Improvements in aircraft and a myriad of other
innovations, ranging from improved baggage handling
techniques to the introduction of computerized reserva­
tion procedures, have produced a rapid rise in output per
man-hour. According to a recent BLS study, “ output per
employee indexes for the air transportation industry

have increased at a rate of almost 8 percent a year since
1947, the highest rate for any major industry. As a result
of this rate of gain, productivity levels in 1966 were five
times greater than in 1947. By contrast, output per
worker in the total private economy during the same
period increased at an annual average rate of only 2.8
percent.” 6 The growth in traffic, however, increased
faster than the gains in productivity and resulted in the
rapid growth of employment levels experienced by the
industry during the past two decades.

Table 3. Scheduled and nonscheduled route air carrier activity,
selected measures, 1950,1955,1958-67

The U.S. air carrier industry, as covered in this report,
includes (1 ) scheduled and nonscheduled domestic and inter­
national route airlines, (2 ) supplemental air carriers authorized
to perform passenger and cargo charter service, and (3 ) commer­
cial-operator air carriers that do business on a private for-hire
basis.
4 Since employment and traffic data are incomplete for
supplemental and commercial-operator air carriers, the discus­
sion o f past trends is limited to the (scheduled and non­
scheduled) route air carriers. However, in the discussion o f
projected employment requirements, the needs o f all U.S.
certified air carriers, including the supplemental and commercial
operators, are taken into account.
5 FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1 9 5 8 through
1 9 6 7 Editions, (Federal Aviation Administration).
6 Joseph E. Dragonette and Chester Myslicki, “Air Trans­
port: Trends in Output Per Em ployee,” M onthly Labor Review
(U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, February
1 9 6 8 ), pp. 13-16.
1Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Avia­
tion Administration, January 1 9 6 7 ), p. 20.
8 Dragonette and Myslicki, op. cit., p. 16.

[In thousands of miles flow n]

Year

Revenue
passenger
miles

Revenue
cargo
ton-miles

Revenue
ton-miles
1,3 9 7,6 70

Revenue
aircraft
miles
4 88 ,22 7

1950

.................

10,3 43 ,00 0

380 ,38 5

1955

.................

2 4 ,7 32 ,50 2

6 82 ,88 5

3 ,0 8 7,8 08

8 0 0 ,4 9 9

1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967

.................
.................
.................
.................
.................
.................
.................
.................
.................
.................

3 2,9 67 ,54 9
3 7,7 82 ,16 2
4 0 ,0 4 9 ,6 4 3
4 1,7 91 ,65 5
4 6,2 69 ,85 7
5 3 ,2 1 6 ,4 6 9
6 1,7 98 ,66 8
7 3,2 1 5 ,9 5 4
8 8 ,1 4 2 ,7 4 0
111 ,77 8,5 20

9 5 1 ,57 8
1,1 0 4,4 24
1,1 7 3,8 16
1,372,831
1,780,437
1,7 5 6,2 72
2 ,0 5 8,0 97
2,807,221
3 ,8 6 2 ,7 7 4

4 ,1 2 0 ,2 2 8
4 ,7 3 4 ,0 9 3
5 ,0 2 4 ,2 8 3
5,394,631
6,238,261
6 ,8 6 0 ,3 0 2
8 ,0 1 5 ,9 4 2
9 3 9 4 ,9 8 3
1 2 ,4 4 0 3 5 5
1 5,6 83 ,23 6

1,0 2 2,0 44
1,081,678
1,040,058
1,0 1 7,0 90
1,0 7 4,0 44
1 ,1 4 3 3 9 0
1,239,127
1 ,418,373
1,602,785
2 ,0 0 9,0 32

4 ,7 6 0 ,3 8 2

S O U RCE : 1950: BLS Estimates Based on H a nd b oo k o f A irlin e S tatistics, 1965
Edition, (Civil Aeronautics Board). 1955, 1958-64: H a nd b oo k o f A irlin e S tatistics,
1965 Edition, (Civil Aeronautics Board), p. 129. 1965-66: F A A S ta tis tic a l H a nd b oo k
Of Aviation, 1967 Edition (Federal Aviation Adm inistration), pp. 160-161. 1967:
Unpublished Data from the Federal Aviation Adm inistration.




Industry outlook

During the 1967-77 decade, the Nation’s air carriers
are expected to undergo further expansion. In 1977,
scheduled route air carriers are expected to fly a total of
266 billion revenue passenger miles, compared with an
estimated 87.5 billion in 1967, an increase of 204
percent. (See table 6.) This growth represents an annual
increase of nearly 12 percent, almost equal to the annual
rate of growth experienced during the 1950-67 period,
but substantially lower than the average growth of 20
percent reported for 1964-67.7 Increases in air freight
volume are anticipated to be even greater. Freight and
express revenue ton-miles accounted for only 11 percent
of total revenue ton-miles in 1947, yet by 1966, it had
increased to about 25 percent.8 Even faster growth is
expected in the coming decade with the advent of
aircraft specially designed to carry cargo. Such aircraft
will make possible faster service at reduced rates, which
will attract additional customers. Because of larger, more
q

3

CHART 1

BILLIONS OF MILES

DOMESTIC INTERCITY PASSENGER-MILES,
SELECTED CARRIERS, 1 9 5 0 -6 6

SOURCES: FAA STATISTICAL HANDBOOK OF AVIATION, (FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION),
1962 AND 1967 EDITIONS.

4




Table 4. Aircraft in certificated route air carrier operations,
by type of aircraft, 1950,1955,1958-67
A ircraft type
Year

Fleet size
Piston

T urboprop

1950

. .

1,179

1,168

1955

. .

1,480

1,453

8

1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

1,895
1,850
1,867
1,877
1,831
1,832
1,863
1,896
2,027
2 ,188

1,777
1,530
1,413
1,282
1,164
1,136
1,026
867
676
460

90
2 13
227
257
251
2 50
2 59
2 96
3 52
414

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Turbojet

Helicopter
11

--

19

6
84
2 02
3 19
3 96
426
5 58
712
9 78
1,292

22
23
25
19
20
20
20
21
21
22

S O U R C E : 1950: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, I9 6 0 edition, op. cit.
1955: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1 96 3 edition, op. cit., table 7 .3 , p. 8 3.
1 95 8-19 6 6: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1967 edition, op. cit., table 7.8, p.
83. 1967: Facts and Figures, 1968 (A ir Transport Association of America, Washington,
D .C .), p. 38

powerful aircraft that are now in the development and
testing stages, all indications point toward a substantial
increase in air-freight activity during the next decade.
The size and composition of the aircraft fleet are
expected to change substantially during the next decade.
According to FAA estimates, the number of aircraft
operated by U.S. air carriers will grow from an estimated
2,337 in 1967 to 3,500 in 1977. (See table 7.) The
growing volume in both passengers and freight will
increase aircraft requirements. During the past decade,
fleet size has remained relatively stable, as the increases
in passenger and freight volume largely were absorbed
through the transition to larger capacity and faster
aircraft. Between 1958 and 1964, the number of aircraft
in operation remained approximately the same, yet
available seat miles doubled from 55 billion to 110
billion and revenue cargo ton-miles more than doubled
from about 1 billion to slightly over 2 billion. (See table
3.) Future increases in aircraft capacity and speed will be
more than offset by the growth expected in passenger
and freight volume and will result in an increase in the
fleet size and change in its composition. (See table 7.)
The number of aircraft operated by route air carriers
also has grown but at a far slower pace; this figure
increased from 1,179 in 1950 to 2,188 in 1967. (See
table 4.) The rapid growth in traffic unaccompanied by a
corresponding increase in fleet size was possible because
of the transition from the piston powered aircraft of the
early 1950’s to turboprop and turbojet aircraft which
are larger and faster. Turbine powered aircraft were
utilized for the first time in the air carrier service in
9 For the purpose o f this study, pilots are defined as all
cockpit personnel including pilots, copilots, flight engineers, and
navigators.




1955. The first pure jets, or turbojets, were put into
service in 1958. By 1967, turbine powered aircraft made
up over three-fourths of the route air carrier fleet;
turbojets alone accounted for nearly three-fifths of all
aircraft.
Employment trends
Pilots. In response to the rapid increase in the demand
for air travel, employment in the U.S. air carrier industry
also has undergone a dramatic increase. As table 5
shows, only 86,000 workers were employed by certifi­
cated route air carriers in 1950. Throughout the 1950’s
employment increased steadily as the volume of pas­
senger traffic moved upward. By 1960, employment had
reached 167,300 workers, an increase of 95 percent
during the decade. Employment continued to expand
during the early 1960’s and by 1967 reached a high of
276,000 workers. Between 1950 and 1967, employment
in the route airlines increased 221 percent, far out­
stripping the growth rate reported in nearly every major
industry.
During the same period, employment in manufactur­
ing increased only 27 percent; finance, insurance, and
real estate, 68 percent; and transportation and public
utilities, 6 percent. (See chart 2.)
In 1967, about 31,000 pilots9 were employed by
U.S. certificated route air carriers, and another 2,000
were estimated to be employed by suplemental and
commercial operator air carriers. (See table 8.) The
number of pilots employed by certificated route air
Table 5. Total employment and pilot and mechanic employment in
certificated route air carriers, 1 9 50,1 955 ,195 8-67

Y ea r

T o ta l
air carrier
e m p lo y m e n t

P ilo ts l/

Mechanics*^/

2 0 ,5 0 0

1950

..........................................

8 5 ,9 0 0

9 ,5 0 0

1955

..........................................

1 2 6 ,9 0 0

1 4 ,6 0 0

3 0 ,4 0 0

1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1 96 7

..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................

1 5 2 ,1 0 0
1 6 5 ,5 0 0
1 6 7 ,3 0 0
1 69 ,94 1
1 7 2 ,8 2 7
1 7 8 ,8 8 7
1 9 1 ,8 1 8
2 1 0 ,7 9 5
2 4 3 ,7 0 1
2 7 6 ,0 2 3

1 7 ,6 0 0
1 8 ,8 0 0

3 0 ,8 0 0
3 2 ,8 0 0
3 4 ,5 0 0
3 4 ,0 6 5
3 4 ,9 2 5
3 4 ,4 5 3
3 9 ,3 6 0
4 1 ,6 6 7
4 5 ,3 2 7
5 0 ,0 1 6

1 7 ,5 0 0
1 8 ,0 9 8
17,971
1 8 ,3 1 0
19,551
2 1 ,9 7 2
2 7 ,8 0 7
3 0 ,9 5 6

-l/ln c lu d e pilots, copilots, flig h t engineers, and navigators.
^ In c lu d e s small num ber o f o ther m aintenance w orkers, such as carpenters
and electricians, th a t are included in Federal A viatio n A d m in istratio n statistics
covering mechanics.
S O U R C E : 1 9 5 0 , 1 9 5 5 , 1 9 5 8 -6 0 : Employment Requirements and Changing
Occupational Structure in Civil Aviation, (B LS Bulletin 1 3 6 7 , June 1 9 6 4 ), table
8 , p. 18. 1 9 6 1 -6 6 : FA A Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, op. c it., 1 9 6 2 -6 7
Editions. 1 9 6 7 : Facts and Figures, 1968, op. c it., p. 4 0 .

5

CHART 2

EMPLOYMENT IN
U.S. CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS,
A N D SELECTED INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1 9 5 0 -6 7

INDEX (1 9 5 0 = 100)

SOURCE: AIR CARRIER EMPLOYMENT - FAA STATISTICAL HANDBOOK OF AVIATION, op. cit.,
1958 THROUGH 1967 EDITIONS.
OTHER INDUSTRIES - EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS STATISTICS FOR
THE UNITED STATES 1909-68, (BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, AUGUST 1968).

6




Table 6. Revenue passenger miles flown by scheduled route air carriers,
by type of traffic, estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977

Estimated
1967

Type o f traffic

Revenue passenger miles (billions)

1972

Projected
1977

Percent
increase
1967-77
204

. .

8 7 .5

149.0

2 6 6 .0

D o m e stic ........................................

66.1

112.0

2 00 .0

2 03

In te rn a tio n a l.................................

2 1.4

3 7.0

6 6.0

208

S O U R C E : A v ia tio n Forecast Fiscal Years 1967-1977, (F e d e ra l A v ia tio n A d m in is ­
tr a tio n , J a n u a ry 1 9 6 7 ,) ta b le 1, p. 2 0 .

carriers has grown substantially during the 1950’s and
1960’s. As shown in table 5, fewer than 10,000 pilots
were employed by these air carriers in 1950. During the
1950’s, employment grew rapidly and reached nearly
19,000 by 1959. Little change in pilot employment
occurred during the early 1960’s. However, since 1964,
the number of pilots employed by certificated route air
carriers has grown by over 58 percent, increasing from
19,600 in 1964 to nearly 31,000 in 1967. Pilots
employed by supplemental and commercial operator air
carriers increased from fewer than an estimated 1,000 in
1950 to about 2,200 in 1967.
In general, pilot employment has grown in response
to an acceleration in the demand for air transportation
services. However, although measures of output, such as
revenue passenger miles flown or revenue ton-miles
flown, have increased at a fairly constant rate since
1950, pilot employment has grown in a more irregular
manner. These varying trends result primarily from
factors influencing pilot productivity. Overall, pilot
productivity increased dramatically during the 1950’s
and 1960’s. Revenue passenger miles flown grew tenfold
during this period, whereas pilot employment only
tripled. These gains in productivity resulted primarily
from the introduction of larger and faster aircraft.
Table 7. Total aircraft in the service of U.S. air carriers,
estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977

A ircraft type

Estimated
1967

Projected
1972

1977

Percent
change
1967-77

Total a irc ra ft.......................

2,337

2,875

3 ,500

+ 50

Fixed wing a ir c r a f t ..............................

2,315

2,847

3,4 7 0

+ 50

J e t..................................................

1,044

2 ,1 9 4

2 ,9 2 3

+180

T u rb o p r o p .................................

396

4 02

488

+ 23

P is to n ...........................................

8 75

251

59

-

H e lic o p te r ..............................................

22

28

30

+ 36

93

Between 1958 and 1963, the shift toward jet-powered
aircraft was largely responsible for a 61 percent increase
in revenue passenger miles flown, but pilot employment
did not increase. Over the long run, however, growth in
traffic volume has more than offset productivity gains
and the net effect has been a rise in the requirement for
pilots. During the past 3 years (1965-67), increases in
traffic volume have far outstripped productivity gains,
and pilot employment has grown at an unprecedented
pace. (See table 5.) The increase in pilot employment
was 2,400 in 1965,5,800 in 1966, and 3,100 in 1967, or
an average increase of 3,800 a year for the period.
Although a number of factors, such as increased training
and retraining and pilot stockpiling, played a role in this
rapid rise, the primary determinant was the unprece­
dented growth in air carrier traffic.
M echanics, In 1967, the Nation’s air carriers em­
ployed 52,000 mechanics, certified route air carriers
employed about 50,000, and supplemental and commer­
cial operator air carriers employed an estimated 2,000.
(See table 8.) During the 1950’s and 1960’s, the number
of mechanics employed by certificated route air carriers
increased rapidly, though at a somewhat slower pace
than the employment of pilots. (See table 5.) Mechanic
employment by these carriers rose from 20,500 in 1950
to 50,000 by 1967, an increase of 144 percent.
Employment of these workers increased nearly every
year during this period; the most rapid growth occurred
during the 1960’s, especially since 1963.
To a large extent, the mechanic work force has
expanded to meet the growing maintenance needs of a
larger, more sophisticated aircraft and an expanded
aircraft fleet. In 1950, only 1,179 piston aircraft were
operated by route air carriers (table 4). Many of these
aircraft were relatively small, such as the DC-3. By 1967,
the number of aircraft owned and operated by the
Nation’s certificated route air carriers had grown to
2,188—larger turbojet aircraft accounted for nearly
three-fifths of these.
Several new types of aircraft will be introduced
during the decade. The first “jumbo” jets (Boeing 747)
were scheduled to enter service in late 1969 and will
account for an important part of the total fleet by 1977.
The smaller 2-engine jets already in operation also will
grow in number as more are put into service on
intermediate and short distance routes.10 According to

N O T E : T o ta l a irc ra ft in service d iffe rs fro m a irc ra ft in c e rtific a tio n ro u te air car­
rie r o p e ra tio n s (ta b le 4 o f th is re p o rt) in th a t it includes a irc ra ft o p e ra te d b y supple­
m e n ta l an d c o m m e rc ia l o p e ra to r a ir carriers.
S O U R C E : F A A A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal
A d m in is tra tio n , J a n u ary 1 9 6 7 ) ta b le 3 , p . 2 2 .




Years

1967-1977, (F e d e ra l A v ia tio n

IQAviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Avia­
tion Administration, January 1967), table 3, p. 22.

7

Table 8. Employment of pilots and mechanics by U.S. air carriers,,
estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Occupation

Estimated
1967
em ploym ent

Projected
requirements
1972

1977

Percent
increase,
1967-77

P ilo t s ........................................

3 3 ,1 0 0

3 8 ,1 0 0

5 1 ,1 0 0

54

M e c h a n ic s ..............................

5 2 ,0 0 0

6 1 ,0 0 0

7 0 ,0 0 0

35

NO TE:

Percents besed o n unrounded num bers.

SOURCE:

Bureau o f Lab o r Statistics.

FAA, the first supersonic transport, the “Concorde,”
will begin operations in 1972, with the American SST
joining the air carrier fleet in 1975. The introduction of
these aircraft will be a continuation of the historical
trend toward larger and faster aircraft. By 1977, the
FAA estimates that 86 SST’s will be in operation;
undoubtedly most will be used in transoceanic flights.
As the size and speed of aircraft increased, the need for
more sophisticated instrumentation and increasingly
complex guidance, communication, and control systems
also increased. These and other technological advances in
aircraft design added substantially to maintenance re­
quirements, especially for electronics and instrument
repairmen.
Some technological innovations partially offset the
increases in maintenance requirements during the 1950’s
and 1960’s. Turbine engines required less maintenance
than the piston engines they replaced. Increases in the
reliability of airframes, communication systems, and
many other aircraft parts made possible by new mate­
rials, such as plastics and new alloys as well as
improvements in component design, also have reduced
maintenance needs. The development of modem test
equipment and advances in tool design also reduced
maintenance requirements. Overall, such advances
increased the productivity* of the maintenance work
force and tended to moderate the growth in mainte­
nance manpower requirements.

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements

Total pilot and mechanic requirements of the
Nation’s air carriers for 1972 and 1977 were made
within the framework o f the air carrier activity and fleet
forecasts developed by the FAA in its 1967 report,
A v ia tio n F orecasts F iscal Years 1 9 6 7 -1 9 7 7 . In preparing
these projections, a variety of methods were tested. For
a complete discussion of the methods selected for use in
developing the projections of employment requirements
8




and the procedures followed in determining replacement
needs, see chapter IV, Projection Methods.
P ilo t requirem ents. A total of about 23,000 addi­
tional pilots will be needed by the Nation’s air carriers
between 1967 and 1977. Nearly four-fifths of the new
requirements will result from occupational growth. (See
table 9.) Between 1967 and 1977, pilot requirements
resulting from growth of the occupation are expected to
rise 18,000, from 33,000 to 51,000, an increase of 54
percent (See table 8.) By comparison, during the
1958-67 decade, pilot employment increased 13,000,
about one-fourth less than the projected growth over the
decade ahead. However, the 1967-77 rate o f increase
implied by this projection is only 54 percent, compared
with the 76-percent increase of the 1958-67 decade. A
large share (over 11,000) of this past employment
growth occurred in 3 years, 1965-67. Except for this
period, the rate of increase was far less than that
projected for the 1967-77 decade.
In addition to occupational growth requirements,
4,800 new pilots will be needed over the next decade as
replacements. Based on age data from FAA airmenmedical records and unpublished data obtained from the
Air Transport Association, 1 out of every 7 pilots
currently employed by the air carriers can be expected
to retire or die from 1968 through 1977. These
relatively high replacement needs reflect the large
number of air carrier pilots who received their flight
training during World War II and now are approaching
retirement age.
The employment needs for U.S. air carrier pilots are
not divided equally between the two halves of the
projection period. (See table 9.) Employment growth
requirements for the 1968-72 period are projected to be
considerably below that expected for the second half of
the decade. These differing growth rates stem from
several causes. Short-run projections are affected more
strongly by cyclical influences. Pilot employment in­
creased at an unusually rapid pace during 1966 and
1967, far above the long-run trends. Thus, the computed
employment level for 1967, developed through regres­
sion analysis, was considerably lower than the actual
employment level reported by the FAA. Although full
assessment of the recent spurt in employment is diffi­
cult, much of the increase may reflect short-run influ­
ences, i.e., increases in training and retraining activity,
transport demands of the Viet Nam situation, and
possible pilot stockpiling due to concern over possible
future shortages. During the 9-month period ending
March 31, 1968, Civil Aeronautics Board records show

Table 9. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from
retirements and deaths, by U.S. air carriers, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77

Requirements
1968-77

Occupation and
type of requirement

1973-77

1968-72
Percent
of
total

Percent
of
total

Number

Percent
of
total

Total pilots..................................................
G ro w th .........................................................................
Retirement and death ...............................................

22,800
18,000
4,800

100
100
100

6,500
5,000
1,500

29
28
31

16,300
13,000
3,300

71
72
69

Retirement and d e a t h ...............................................

24,700
18,000
6,700

100
100
100

12,100
9,000
3,100

49
50
46

12,600
9,000
3,600

51
50
54

NO TE:

Number

Number

In d iv id u a l parts m ay n o t add to to ta l d u e to ro u n d in g .

SOURCE:

Bureau o f L a b o r Statistics.

that employment increased only 1,400, a possible
indication that pilot employment growth patterns
already may be returning to long-run trends. Also, pilot
productivity is expected to increase more rapidly during
the first 5-year period, modifying pilot requirements.
During this period, jet aircraft will continue to replace
the slower piston and turboprop aircraft and conse­
quently increase pilot productivity. By 1972, most of
the conversion to jet aircraft will have been completed,
and pilot productivity increases should slow during the
1973-77 period. This slowdown is expected to result in a
more rapid rise in the requirements for pilots during this
period.
When compared with expected traffic growth, projec­
tions of pilot employment rise at a much slower pace,
approximately 54 percent over the next decade. The
much greater growth in traffic, unaccompanied by a
correspondingly large increase in the number of pilots,
reflects the impact of continuing technological change
on pilot productivity. Primary among these changes will
be further shifts in fleet composition. (See table 7.) Not
only will the smaller capacity piston aircraft be phased
out during the next decade, but new second and third
generation jets will be put into service. The increase in
average aircraft speed resulting from the expansion of
the subsonic jet fleet (Boeing 747 and DC-10) and the
introduction of supersonic aircraft will reduce further
the trip time and increase output per pilot. Pilot
productivity gains, however, will be moderated by a
number of offsetting influences. Actual pilot flight




hours, or “stick time,” may decline as a result of
scheduling difficulties and increased flight preparation
time. Traffic congestion may lengthen landing and
takeoff times and modify the effect of the increase in
average flight speed. Increases in training and retraining
resulting from the advent of new types of aircraft also
will increase pilot needs. Furthermore, pilot require­
ments may be influenced by future shifts in institutional
factors such as longer vacations or, even more important,
by negotiated reductions in the pilots’ maximum
monthly duty hours.
M ech anic req u irem en ts . About 25,000 new airplane
mechanics will be needed by U.S. air carriers during the
1967-77 decade. (See table 9.) About three-fourths of
this increase will result from employment growth. The
number of mechanics employed by the Nation’s air
carriers is expected to increase from 52,000 in 1967 to
70,000 in 1977, an increase of 35 percent (table 8).
Most of the growth will occur in the certificated route
air carriers, where employment is expected to increase
by 17,000 to 67,000 in 1977, about equal to the
employment growth experienced during the past decade.
The remaining additional workers—about 1,000—will be
required by the supplemental and commercial operator
air carriers where mechanic employment will grow to
about 3,000 by 1977.
Employment growth is projected to be equally
divided between the two halves of the projection period,
increasing 9,000 in each period. Replacement needs,

9

Table 10. Revenue aircraft hours, by type of aircraft, U.S. air carriers,
estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977

[In millions]
Hours
A ircraft type

Estimated
1967

Forecast
1972

1977

Percent
change,
1967-77

Total a irc ra ft....................

5 .27

7 .20

9 .27

Fixed-wing a ir c r a f t ...........................

5 .2 4

7.17

9 .2 3

+ 76

J e t...............................................

3 .0 6

6 .1 4

8 .1 8

+1 6 7

T u r b o p r o p ..............................

0.87

0 .8 3

1.01

+ 16

P is to n ........................................

1.31

0 .2 0

0 .0 4

-

H elicopters...........................................

0 .0 3

0 .0 3

0 .0 4

+ 33

+ 76

97

S O U R C E : F A A A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, (F e d e ra l A v ia tio n A d ­
m in is tra tio n , J a n u a ry 1 9 6 7 ) ta b le 4 , p. 2 2 .

however, will be higher in the second half of the decade.
From 1968 through 1972, 3,100 workers will be needed
to replace mechanics who die or retire, whereas replace­
ment requirements will be 3,600 for the later period, 16
percent higher.

10




Growth in the employment of mechanics will result
primarily from two factors. First, the number of aircraft
operated by air carriers is expected to increase substan­
tially during the next decade. In addition flight hours are
expected to rise about 76 percent above the 1967 level.
(See table 10.) The maintenance of this larger, more
extensively utilized aircraft fleet will require additional
mechanics. Second, aircraft are becoming larger and
more complex. The increased sophistication of aircraft
control, guidance, and communications systems will add
to maintenance requirements.
Some technological developments, on the other hand,
will tend to moderate employment growth. The con­
tinued shift toward jet-powered aircraft will reduce
engine maintenance requirements. Other innovations
ranging from the use of complex monitoring and testing
systems to the development of improved hand tools will
increase mechanic productivity and moderate the rate of
employment growth over the coming decade.

Chapter 11.

General Aviation11

General aviation is a large and rapidly expanding part
of the Nation’s air transportation system. In 1967,
general aviation accounted for nearly 97 percent of all
the aircraft operated in the civil aviation industry. Of the
106,337 aircraft inventoried by FAA, 104,000 were in
general aviation. (See table 11.)
General aviation has grown substantially in recent
years. As speed, safety, and comfort have increased,
aircraft have gained in acceptance as a mode of
transportation. Population growth, rising personal and
business incomes, and increased leisure time have
spurred the expansion in all types of general aviation
flying. Business flying has increased as more and more
companies have discovered the convenience and com­
petitive advantages of operating their own aircraft.
Air taxi service has increased in response to the need for
feeder service to major air terminals and for air
transportation to remote locations not serviced by air
carriers. In recent years, modern agriculture and industry
increasingly have required additional aircraft for activi­
ties such as pesticide spraying, pipeline patrolling, and
certain construction operations. To meet these and
similar needs, general aviation has become one of the
most rapidly expanding sectors.
Changes in the size of the general aviation aircraft
fleet and the increase in the number of hours flown in
general aviation provide an indication o f industry
growth. According to FAA, the fleet grew by more than
38,700 aircraft between 1958 and 1967, an increase of
about 60 percent. (See table 11.) Of the various types of
aircraft, growth has been most rapid for the larger
multiengine aircraft. In 1958, multiengine aircraft
accounted for 8 percent of the general aviation fleet, but
their share had grown to 12 percent by 1967.
The total hours flown in general aviation have
increased even faster than the number o f aircraft.
Although only 12.6 million hours were flown by general
aviation aircraft in 1958, flight hours had increased to an
alltime high of 22.2 million by 1967, an increase of 76
percent over the decade. (See table 12.)
In terms of number of aircraft, personal use flying
makes up the largest part of general aviation; this
activity accounted for 54 percent of the 104,000 general
aviation aircraft in 1967. (See table 13.) Among non­
personal uses, business flying accounted for 22 percent
of the general aviation fleet, followed by commercial
flying, 14 percent; instructional flying, 8 percent; and
other flying, 2 percent. Although representing less than
one-half of the aircraft fleet, nonpersonal flying ac­




counted for slightly over three-fourths of all the hours
flown in general aviation. Personal use flying accounted
for only 23 percent of hours flown in 1967, whereas
business flying accounted for 30 percent. Other impor­
tant sectors in terms of hours flown were commercial
and, instructional flying, which accounted for 18 and 28
percent, respectively, of the total. The larger proportion
of hours flown relative to the number of aircraft
reported for nonpersonal uses reflects the much higher
rates of aircraft utilization in the nonpersonal flying
sectors.
The most rapid increase in hours flown between 1958
and 1967 occurred in instructional flying. Hours flown
in instructional flying increased 191 percent. Other
sectors recording rapid growth in hours flown during this
period were personal use flying (119 percent) and
commercial flying (66 percent).
Outlook

According to FAA, the general aviation fleet will
continue to expand rapidly during the coming decade,
stimulated by the same factors that spurred activity
during the past decade. By 1977, the number of such
aircraft is forecast to increase to 180,000, or 73 percent
above the 1967 level. (See table 14.)
Piston aircraft are expected to account for most of
the increase in the number of general aviation aircraft.
Single-engine piston aircraft are forecast to grow by
55,600, or 63 percent between 1967 and 1977. During
the same time period, multi-engine piston aircraft will
approximately double in number and increase from
12,500 to 23,000. Turbine powered aircraft, both
turbojet and turboprop, are expected to show the
sharpest rate of growth by jumping froin fewer than
1,000 in 1967 to 8,000 by 1977. Most of the turbine
powered aircraft will be used in business and air taxi
operations, where their relatively lower maintenance
costs and higher speeds make them especially attractive.
The number of hours flown by general aviation
aircraft also is forecast by FAA to rise sharply between
1967 and 1977. (See table 12.) Total aircraft hours will
11 General aviation covers the following categories as identi­
fied by the Federal Aviation Administration: (1) business flying,
(2) commercial flying (air taxi, aerial applications and indus­
trial-special use), (3) instructional flying, (4) personal-use flying,
and (5) other flying. Also included in this category are the
certified and noncertified repair stations that service general
aviation aircraft.

11

Table 1 1 . Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1958-67, and forecast 1972 and 1977
Aircraft type
Year, as of January 1

Number of
active
aircraft

Piston
Turbine
Single-engine

Rotorcraft

Other

Multiengine

1958 ....................................
1959 ....................................
1960 ....................................
1 9 6 1 ....................................
1962 . . . ............................
1963 ....................................
1964 ....................................
1965 ....................................
1966 ....................................
1967 ....................................

65,289
67,839
68,727
76,549
80,632
84,121
85,088
88,742
95,442
104,000

59,649
61,692
61,844
68,301
71,010
73,456
73,626
76,136
81,134
88,000

5,036
5,416
5,957
7,129
8,211
8,978
9,458
10,346
11,422
12,500

(1)
(1)
77
114
186
213
245
306
574
950

344
439
525
634
798
967
1,171
1,306
1,503
1,700

260
292
324
371
427
507
588
648
809
850

1972 ....................................

144,000

118,300

17,800

4,100

2,650

1,150

1977 ....................................

180,000

143,600

23,000

8,000

4,000

1,400

2 / Not available.
SOURCE: F A A Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, Federal Aviation Administration, 1958-67 edition. Aviation Fore­
casts Fiscal Years 19 67 -77,(Federal Aviation Administration, January 1967).

grow by nearly three-fifths; the increase will be from
22.2 million in 1967 to 35.0 million by 1977. By 1977,
the nonpersonal uses of aircraft still will make up almost
three-fourths of all the hours flown in general aviation.
Business flying will continue to account for the largest
share; its increase is expected to be nearly 60 percent,
from 6.6 to 10.4 million hours between 1967 and 1977.
A growing number of business firms, especially those
that have operations in more than one geographic
location, are expected to buy or lease aircraft to provide
more direct travel for company executives. Businessowned aircraft also are being used more widely to
transport sales staffs and customers, and to provide a
responsive technical service staff for product installation
and maintenance.
Flight hours also are expected to grow substantially
in both commercial (3.9 to 7.2 million) and instructional
(6.3 to 7.4 million) flying between 1967 and 1977. Most
of the increase in commercial flying will result from the
growing demand for air taxi services. From 1957 to
1967, the number of certificated air taxi operators has
risen steadily. Future growth will result primarily from
the expansion of air taxi service to communities too
small to warrant regular air carrier service, and from the
demand for air taxi service to connect major air termi­
nals with downtown areas and suburban communities.

12




Several major air carriers already are including air taxi
fares in ticketing procedures, a practice that will be
expanded further in the 1967-77 decade.
Flight hours in personal use flying are forecast to
grow by nearly 90 percent during 1967-77. (See table
12.) A population with more leisure time and higher
incomes, together with the public’s growing awareness of
the availability and convenience of flying, will stimulate
this rapid expansion.
Pilot employment trends

Historical data on the number of pilots have been
limited, for the most part, to a count of active pilot
certificates. According to FAA, the number of persons
holding commercial certificates—the rating held by most
pilots employed in general aviation—more than doubled
between 1957 and 1967 and increased from 71,000 to
150.000. 12 A large share of this growth occurred during
the 1963-67 period, when the number of pilots holding
commercial certificates rose sharply from 96,000 to
150.000. This data, however, represent the total pilot
12
FAA Statistical H andbook o f A viation, 1966 Edition,
(Federal Aviation Administration), p. 77. Unpublished data for
1967 were obtained from FAA.

Table 12. Estimated hours flown in general aviation, by type of flying, 1950-67and FY 1972 and 1977
[Thousands of hours]
Type of flying
Year

Total
hours

Business

Commercial

I nstructional

Personal use

Hours

Per­
cent

Hours

Per­
cent

Hours

Per­
cent

Hours

Per­
cent

Other
Hours

Per­
cent
1
1
3
2

........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................

9,650
8,451
8,186
8,527
8,963
9,500
10,200
10,938
12,579
12,903
13,121
13,602
14,500
15,106
15,738
16,733
21,023
22,153

2,750
2,950
3,124
3,626
3,875
4,300
4,600
4,864
5,699
5,699
5,699
5,699
5,431
5,740
5,823
5,857
7,057
6,578

28
35
38
42
43
45
45
45
45
44
44
42
38
38
37
35
33
30

1,500
1,584
1,727
1,649
1,829
1,950
2,000
2,013
2,365
2,365
2,365
2,634
3,051
3,172
3,305
3,348
3,555
3,918

16
19
21
19
20
21
20
18
19
18
18
19
21
21
21
20
17
18

3,000
1,902
1,503
1,248
1,292
1,275
1,500
1,864
2,150
2,043
1,828
1,796
2,385
2,417
2,675
3,346
5,674
6,262

31
23
18
15
15
13
15
17
17
16
14
13
16
16
17
20
27
28

2,300
1,880
1,629
1,846
1,920
1,975
2,100
2,109
2,365
2,796
3,172
3,398
3,489
3,626
3,777
4,016
4,540
5,173

24
22
20
22
22
21
20
19
19
22
24
25
24
24
24
24
22
23

100
135
203
158
47

57
75
144
151
158
166
197
222

(i/)

1972 ........................

27,200

8,400

31

5,700

21

5,600

21

7,300

27

200

1

1977

35,000

10,400

30

7,200

21

7,400

21

9,700

28

300

1

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967

........................

u/>

—

—

—

—

88
—
—

1
—
—

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

- 1 /Less than 0.05 percent.
SOURCE 1950-66: F A A Statistical Handbook o f Aviation (Federal Aviation Administration), 1963 and 1967 Edi­
tions, table 5.2 and 5.4. 1967: Unpublished data from the F A A . 1972 and 1977: Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years
1 9 6 7 -7 7 , op. cit., table 8, p. 27.

population, not persons actually employed as pilots in
general aviation.13
Based on a special tabulation prepared from FAA
aeromedical records,14 25,000 pilots were employed by
13 The discussion o f historical trends in the number o f pilots
is limited in this section to active certificated pilots. The total
pilot population reflected in the FAA data includes many
persons who fly solely for recreation, and others who are
employed primarily in other occupations, but who fly occa­
sionally for business reasons or as a secondary job. Although
recognizing that many thousands o f additional pilots may be
employed on a casual part-time basis, for the purpose o f this
study, the Bureau’s statisticians decided that meaningful future
pilot training requirements would best be determined if current
and projected employment estimates were limited to those
persons who were employed primarily as professional pilots.
Lack o f historical data on professionally-employed pilots in
general aviation prevented development o f estimates for years
prior to 1967.
14 For a complete discussion o f the source and methods
followed in preparing pilot employment estimates, see p. 19.




general aviation in 1967. Almost one-half of these pilots
(11,900) were reportedly in executive transportation
(table 15). Air taxi operations accounted for the second
largest concentration of pilots (6,200), followed by
instructional flying (3,300). The remaining pilots were
divided among the other general aviation activities;
1,500 were reported in aerial application, 1,500 in
industrial/special, and 500 in other uses.
Mechanic employment trends

Historical data on general aviation mechanic employ­
ment have been limited in the past to FAA data
reporting the number of persons holding mechanic
certificates. The number of certificated mechanics has
grown substantially in the past decade; the increase was
from 103,000 in 1957 to over 147,000 in 1967.15 These
15
FAA Statistical H andbook o f Aviation, 1966 Edition, op.
cit., p. 77. Unpublished data for 1967 were obtained from FAA.

13

data, however, include many persons ndt employed as
mechanics in general aviation and exclude others.16
Based on certificated repair station inspection records
and FAA regional office estimates,17 mechanic employ­
ment in general aviation was estimated at about 50,000
in 1967. (See table 16.) Three-fifths (32,600) of these
mechanics were employed at certificated repair stations.
The remainder, about 18,000, were estimated to be
employed by the usually smaller, noncertificated repair
stations. At certificated repair stations, noncertificated
mechanics were estimated to number about 24,000;
certificated mechanics, 4,800; and certificated repair­
men, 3,600.
Projected pilot and mechanic requirements

As in the air carrier industry, the manpower require­
ments presented in this section reflect both those
resulting from expansion in the general aviation sector
and those resulting from the need to replace persons
who die or retire. The growth projections were made
within the framework of general aviation flight activity
and fleet forecasts developed by FAA in its 1967 report,
A v ia tio n F orecasts F iscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 .

For a complete discussion of the methods used in
developing the employment projections and estimating
replacement requirements, see Part II of this bulletin.
P ilo t requirem ents. About 36,000 new pilots will be
required in general aviation from 1968 through 1977
because of occupational growth and the need to replace
pilots who will retire or die. (See table 17.) Require­
ments resulting from employment growth will account
for nearly 85 percent of all new pilot needs. Pilot
employment is projected to more than double between
1967 and 1977; the increase is expected to be from an
estimated 25,000 to about 56,000. (See table 18.)
More than 80 percent of the new pilot requirements
will be concentrated in two flying activities—executive
transportation and air taxi operations. In the executive
transportation sector alone, pilot requirements will
exceed 19,000 over the 1967-77 decade. (See table 17.)

Table 13. Estimated distribution of general aviation aircraft,
by type of flying, 1967

100

Personal u s e ...................................................... ... .....................

54

B u s in e s s ......................................................................................

22

C o m m e r c i a l ...............................................................................

14

In s t r u c t io n a l...............................................................................

8

O ther f l y i n g ..........................................................................

2

SOURCE:

B ureau o f L ab o r S tatistics.

Employment growth will account for most of these
requirements as the number of pilots engaged in execu­
tive flying is projected to increase from nearly 12,000 to
about 28,000. An additional 2,700 pilots will be needed
in executive flying as replacements for those who retire
or die during the decade. In air taxi flying, slightly over
11,000 new pilots will be required, the sharpest rate of
increase for any flying activity. By 1977, the number of
pilots engaged in this activity will grow by one and a half
times its 1967 level—from 6,200 to 15,800. An addi­
tional 1,500 pilots will be required by air-taixi flying as
replacements.
Of the remaining pilot requirements in general avia­
tion, nearly two-thirds (3,700) will be in instructional
flying. Employment needs will nearly double in this
sector, growing from 3,300 in 1967 to 6,300 in 1977.
Another 700 pilots will be needed as replacements for
those pilots who retire or die during this period. Smaller
numbers of new pilots will be required in the other types
of general aviation flying—800 in industrial/special; 900
in aerial application; and 400 in other types of flying.
Pilot growth requirements will be somewhat higher
during the second half of the 1967-77 decade. Employ­
ment requirements are projected to increase by 16,600
during the second half of the decade, compared with
14,100 during the first half; and replacement needs will
Table 14. Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft,
estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977
Aircraft
Type of aircraft

16 The discussion o f historical trends in the number o f
mechanics is limited in this section to certificated mechanics.
Mechanics em ployed by air carriers are included in FAA data as
are persons who hold an active mechanic rating but are
employed in another occupation. Excluded from the FAA data
are a large number o f mechanics w ithout active certificates. Lack
o f historical data on mechanics employed in general aviation
prevented development o f estimates for the years prior to 1967.
17 For a complete discussion o f the sources and procedures
followed in estimating mechanic employment, see p. 34.

14




Percent distribution

Type o f flying
T o t a l ...................................................................

Estimated
1967

Forecast

Percent
increase,
1967-77

1972

1977

T o t a l ...................................

104,000

144,000

180,000

73

Piston......................................................

100,500

136,100

166,600

66

Single-engine.............................

88,0 00

118,300

143,600

63

M u ltie n g in e .............................

12,500

17,800

23,000

84

Turbine

................................................

9 50

4,100

8,0 0 0

742

R o to r c r a ft.............................................

1,700

2,650

4,000

135

O th e r ......................................................

850

1,150

1,400

65

S O U R C E : A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. e ft., ta b le 6 , p. 2 5 .

Table 15. Estimated employment of pilots in general aviation,
by type of flying, 1967
Estimated
1967
em ploym ent

Percent
distribution

T o t a l ............................................................

2 5,0 00

100.0

Executive tra n s p o rta tio n ...........................................

1 1,900

47.5

A ir t a x i .....................................................

6 ,2 0 0

24.9

Aerial a p p lic a tio n .........................................................

1 ,500

6 .2

In d u s tria l/s p e c ia l........................................................

1 ,500

6.1

In s tru c tio n a l..................................................................

3 ,3 0 0

13.3

500

2.0

Type o f flying

O ther ..................................................................

N O T E : In d iv id u a l item s m ay n o t add to to ta l d u e to ro u n d in g . Percents based on
u n ro u n d e d n u m b ers.
S O U R C E : Bureau o f L a b o r S tatistics. E stim ates based on d a ta o b ta in e d fro m F A A
A e ro m e d ic a l R ecords.

average about 700 a year in the 1973-77 period,
compared with nearly 400 a year in the 1968-72 period.
The growth in pilot employment throughout the
various sectors of general aviation will be generated by
the rapid rise in the demand for general aviation services
discussed earlier. Although numerous technological
advances are expected in aircraft design and in operating
systems, these changes are not expected to have a major
impact on the manpower requirements for pilots in
general aviation.

50,400 to 92,800. (See table 18.) Six out of every seven
new job openings will result from employment expan­
sion. The remaining requirements (7,800) will result
from the need to replace workers who will die or retire.
Employment of mechanics will grow to about 72,000
by 1972, an increase of nearly 22,000, compared with a
projected increase of 20,700 during the second 5-year
period. Replacement needs also will be greater during
the second 5-year period—4,500 compared with 3,300.
A number of factors will spur the growth of mechanic
employment. As indicated earlier, the general aviation
fleet is expected to expand from 104,000 in 1967 to
144,000 by 1972 and 180,000 by 1977, an increase of
73 percent for the decade. Perhaps even more important
in determining mechanic requirements is the sharp
increase in flight hours forecast by the FAA. Not only is
the general aviation fleet and its utilization increasing,
but aircraft also are becoming more complex as new
Table 16. Estimated mechanics employed in general aviation,
by type of repair station, 1367

Total m echanics............................................................................

5 0 ,4 0 0

Certificated repair s t a t i o n ............................................................................

3 2 ,6 0 0

Certificated m e ch a n ics ......................................................................

4 ,8 0 0

Certificated r e p a ir m e n ......................................................................

M echanic requ irem en ts . An estimated 50,300 new

mechanics will be needed in general aviation from 1967
through 1977, an average of nearly 5,000 each year.
Employment needs are expected to nearly double over
the 1967-77 decade; the expected increase will be from

Estimated 1967
em ploym ent

Type of repair station

Noncertificated repair station

NOTE:

3 ,6 0 0

......................................................

17,8 00

In d iv id u a l parts m a y n o t add to to ta ls d u e to ro u n d in g .

SOURCE:
records.

B ureau

of

Labor

S tatistics.

E stim ates based

on

u n p u b lish ed

FAA

Table 17. Projected requirements for general aviation pilots and mechanics resulting from
employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77
Requirements
1968-77

Occupation

1973-77

1968-72

Total

Growth

Deaths and
retirements

Total

Growth

Deaths and
retirements

Total

Growth

Deaths and
retirements

P ilo ts......................................

36,200

30,700

5,500

16,400

14,100

2,200

19,900

16,600

3,300

Executive flying . . . .
Air t a x i.......................
Aerial application . . .
Industrial/special. . . .
Instructional...............
Other ..........................

19,300
11,100
900
800
3,700
400

16,500
9,600
700
600
3,000
300

2,700
1,500
300
200
700
100

8,200
5,200
500
400
1,900
200

7,200
4,600
400
300
1,600
200

1,100
600
100
100
300
( 1/ )

11,000
6,000
400
400
1,800
200

9,400
5,000
300
300
1,400
200

1,600
900
100
100
400
<l/>

Mechanics.............................

50,300

42,400

7,800

25,100

21,800

3,300

25,200

20,700

4,500

1/ Less than

50.

N O T E : Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.
S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.




15

Table 18. Employment of pilots and mechanics in general aviation, estimated 1967 and
projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Estimated 1967
employment

Occupation

Projected requirements
1972

1977

Percentage
increase
1967-77

P ilo ts .............................................................................................................

25,000

39,200

55,700

123

Executive transportation ................................................................
Air t a x i.............................................................................................
Aerial application............................................................................
1ndustrial/special............................................................................
Instructional.....................................................................................
Other .................................................................................................

11,900
6,200
1,500
1,500
3,300
500

19,100
10,800
1,900
1,800
4,900
700

28,400
15,800
2,200
2,100
6,300
800

139
155
47
40
91
60

Mechanics....................................................................................................

50,400

72,100

92,800

84

NOTE:

Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

equipment and instrumentation are being developed
continually, creating additional maintenance demands.
However, other influences will offset the increased
maintenance created by the growing complexity of
general aviation aircraft. New and better maintenance
equipment and procedures will increase mechanic pro­
ductivity. The shift towards jet powered aircraft, which
have fewer engine maintenance requirements, also will

16




tend to moderate the growth in requirements for certain
mechanic specialties. These technological developments
will offset one another in the aggregate. In the last
analysis, the rapid expansion expected in the size of the
fleet and in hours flown will generate a substantial
increase in maintenance requirements, and consequantly,
mechanic employment will rise sharply during the
1967-77 decade.

Chapter III.
Presented in this section is a discussion of the growth
of and outlook for Federal, State, and local government
flying activities, excluding all activities of the U.S.
Department of Defense, civilian and military.18

Pilot employment trends

Nearly 2,000 pilots were estimated to be employed in
nonmilitary activities by Federal, State, and local gov­
ernment agencies in 1967. (See table 19.) The Federal
Government accounted for almost one-half (1,200) of all
pilots employed by all levels of government. Most were
employed by the Federal Aviation Administration and
are involved in activities such as aircraft, airway, and
flight procedure testing, and in pilot proficiency testing.
Other Federal agencies employing significant numbers of
pilots were the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and
Interior. These agencies utilize pilots for border patrol­
ling, forest and game conservation activities, and experi­
mental work.
State and local governments were estimated to
employ 800 pilots in 1967. Many were engaged in State
and local police patrolling activities; others were
employed in State forestry and natural resource agencies
engaged in conservation programs. A growing number
are being utilized for student instruction in public
universities and colleges.
In the Federal Government, pilot employment in
nondefense activities has declined slightly since 1957.
Although the number of FAA pilots engaged in testing
airway systems has declined, the decrease was offset, in
part, by an increase in the number of pilots engaged in
pilot and flight checkout. Employment in the other
Federal agencies grew slightly over the decade but has
remained relatively stable during the past few years. No
historical data on pilot employment in State and local
governments are available.
18 Excluded from the scope o f this study are about 500
civilian pilots employed by the U.S. Department o f Defense.
19 Excluded from the scope o f this study are 33,000 civilians
employed as airplane mechanics by the U.S. Department o f
Defense.
20 Estimates o f the number o f mechanics employed by the
Federal Government from 1958-67 were based on data from the
U.S. Civil Service Commission and the Federal Aviation Admin­
istration.
21 Reductions in programs, such as the monitoring o f air
carrier flights, are possible during the decade. If such program
reductions are made, the number o f pilots employed by the
Federal Government actually may decline.




Government
Mechanic and employment trends

In 1967, an estimated 1,100 mechanics were
employed by government agencies in nondefense activi­
ties.19 (See table 19.) Nearly all were employed by the
Federal Government, principally by the Federal Aviation
Administration. Fewer than 100 mechanics were esti­
mated to be employed by State and local government
agencies. Because of the small aircraft fleet operated by
State and local governments, most maintenance work is
contracted out to privately-operated repair stations.
Mechanics working for Federal agencies are engaged
largely in the maintenance of agency operated aircraft.
In 1958, about 1,200 were employed by Federal non­
defense agencies. Employment increased during the early
1960’s to about 1,700 in 1962. By 1967, however, the
number of mechanics dropped to 1,100, slightly below
the 1958 level.20
Projected pilot and mechanic requirements

The following section discusses future pilot and
mechanic manpower requirements in government. The
manpower requirements presented reflect both those
resulting from expansion and those resulting from the
need to replace persons who die or retire.
For a complete discussion of the methods used in
developing employment projections and estimating
replacement requirements, see pages 33 and 39 of this
report.
P ilo t requirem ents. The number of pilots employed
by government is expected to grow by nearly 1,000
between 1967 and 1977 to a total of 2,900. (See table
19.) In addition to growth requirements, 300 pilots will
be needed to replace those who will die or retire. (See
table 20.) The growth in employment requirements will
be somewhat greater in the Federal Government (500)
than in State and local government agencies (400). In
Federal agencies, the increase in requirements will result
from the further expansion of flight procedure testing
and pilot checkout activities conducted by the FAA.
The growth in flight activity, both commercial and
private, will require a larger staff of these specialized
personnel. The increases may be offset, in part, however,
by further reductions in frequency of certain inspection
programs.21 In State and local government agencies,
further expansion of patrolling activities, especially
highway and other police patrolling, and the growth of
flight instruction in public supported schools will
account for most of the increase in pilot requirements.

17

Table 19. Employment of pilots and mechanics in government, by type of government, estimated
1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Estimated 1967
employment

Occupation

Projected requirements
1972

1977

Percentage
increase
1967-77

Total pilots............................. .......................................................

1,980

2,440

2,900

46

Federal............................................................................................................

1,180

1,440

1,700

44

Federal Aviation Adm inistration................................... .................
Other F ed era l.....................................................................................

1,020
160

1,260
180

1,500
200

47
25

State and local.................................................................................................

800

1,000

1,200

50

Total mechanics............................................................................

1,100

1,100

1,100

—

Federal.............................................................................................................

1,000

1,000

1,000

—

State and local.................................................................................................

100

100

100

—

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Federal em plo ym ent estimates fo r 19 67 based on data from th e U.S. Civil Service Com m is­
sion and th e Federal A viation A dm inistratio n. State and local em ploym ent estimates fo r 1967 based on special tabulatio n o f F A A
aeromedicai records.

M echanic req u irem en ts . Little change is expected in
the number of mechanics employed by government
during the 1967-77 decade. The size of the fleet
operated by FAA is expected to decline slightly, but it
will consist of larger, more complex aircraft. As in the
past, employment is expected to remain relatively stable,
and new mechanic requirements will stem primarily

from the need to replace workers who retire or die.
Estimates are that only 100 new mechanics will be
required for this purpose. (See table 20.) No change is
expected in employment of mechanics in State and local
governments, since maintenance work probably will
continue to be performed by private repair stations.

Table 20. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics in government^ resulting from
employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1 9 6 8 -77,1968-72, and 1973-77
Requirements

Total

Growth

1973-77

1968-72

1968-77

Occupation and type
of government

Deaths and
retirement

Total

Growth

Deaths and
retirement

Total

Growth

Deaths and
retirement

....

1,250

920

330

610

460

150

640

460

180

Federal...................................

720

520

200

350

260

90

370

260

110

State and local........................

530

400

130

260

200

60

270

200

70

Total mechanics . .

120

—

120

60

--

60

60

—

60

Federal...................................

100

—

100

50

--

50

50

—

50

State and local........................

20

20

10

—

10

10

—

10

Total pilots

—

J/E xc lu d es personnel em ployed by th e U.S. D epartm ent o f Defense.
S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

18




Chapter IV.

Projection Methods

A number of techniques for estimating future pilot
and mechanic requirements in civil aviation were tested
and evaluated before those used in this study were
selected. The techniques used account for the future
environment of the industry as reflected by forecasts
made by the Federal Aviation Administration of
industry variables such as fleet size and composition,
revenue passenger miles, and revenue aircraft hours
flown. These variables express the expected demand for
the services of civil aviation, and the technological,
economic, and other factors that will influence the level
of demand and manpower requirements. The BLS
projections of manpower requirements, therefore, are
dependent upon the realization of the FAA forecasts.
The techniques finally selected are presented in a
manner that facilitates revision of the manpower projec­
tions if the FAA projections are modified. Such a
presentation is highly desirable, since the rapidly chang­
ing environment of civil aviation makes all projections
subject to constant review.
Pilot and mechanic employment requirements

Several techniques were selected to estimate pilot
requirements resulting from expected growth in civil
aviation activity. For U.S. air carriers, two separate
techniques were used, the results of each verifying the
other. The first (method A)22 was based on the need for
pilots, as reflected in FAA’s estimated fleet size and
composition and the total number of hours these aircraft
would be flown23, as well as BLS estimates of the
average number of crews expected per aircraft and the
number of pilots expected per crew. The second
(method B) involved the development of a multiple
regression equation. The variables used in the equation
were selected after testing and evaluating the relation­
ship of historical data on pilot requirements. The
equation reflects the impact of total hours flown, the
22 This method is a modification o f the technique used in
Forecasts o f Airline P ilot Requirem ents (Task 67-17, Subtask 3,
Logistics Management Institute, Washington, D.C., May 1967).
23 Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77. op. cit.
24 Base year estimates o f pilot employment in each segment
o f general aviation were taken from aeromedical records main­
tained at the Civil Aeromedical Institute, Federal Aviation
Administration, Oklahoma G ty , Oklahoma.
25 The base-year level o f mechanic employment in general
aviation was estimated from Annual Inspection Report Records
o f Certificated Repair Stations, and unpublished estimates o f
mechanic employment in noncertificated repair stations main­
tained by FAA regional offices.




changing technology of civil aviation (complexity, fleet
composition, utilization of aircraft), and other factors.
For general aviation, only one technique for estimat­
ing pilot requirements was selected. The need for pilots
was estimated by type of flying (executive flying,
aerial-application, etc.) on the basis of the relationship
between current pilot employment and the number and
utilization of different types of aircraft. The pilot/
aircraft relationships then were extended to the target
years and applied to estimates of fleet size in each flying
activity.24 Projections of the relatively small number of
pilots employed in government were made on the basis
of an evaluation of available historical data and consulta­
tion with the various government agencies employing
these workers.
Two techniques were selected to project the growth
of employment requirements for mechanics in civil
aviation—one for the growth of requirements in air
carriers and the other for requirements in general
aviation. For U.S. air carriers, a multiple regression
equation was selected from among many tested, which
considered the total number of hours flown, and speed,
a variable which reflects the changing composition and
utilization of the fleet. For general aviation, a ratio
technique was used that allowed the projection of the
number of mechanics on the basis of their relationship
to the current (1967) and expected total number of
hours flown by general aviation aircraft.25 Because of
the small numbers of mechanics employed by govern­
ment, employment estimates and projections for these
workers were made on the basis of an evaluation of
available historical data and consultation with the
various government agencies where they are employed.
U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method A

The first technique used to project employment
requirements for pilots by air carriers was based on the
expected size, composition, and utilization of the fleet
in the projection years. Tables 21 and 22 present a
step-by-step application of the technique. The historical
data on pilot employment in U.S. air carriers and the
projected employment requirements in 1972 and 1977
using method A are illustrated in chart 3. The data used
to project pilot employment requirements by method A
originate from different sources. The FAA provides
projections of the fleet size, composition, and hours
flown by type of aircraft in the target years. Other
factors used in the technique were developed by BLS
and are explained in detail below.
19

Table 21. U.S. air carrier pilot em ploym ent requirements projection to 1972 (method A )

Revenue hours
Average crews
flown by
per aircraft
aircraft
Col. 3-^ 508
Col. 2 + Col. 1

Number in
inventory

Total revenue
hours flown
(millions)

d)

(2)

(3)

2-Engine j e t ..................................
3-Engine jet

1,252

3.08

4-Engine j e t ..................................

942

Aircraft type

Pilots
per crew

Pilot
employment
Col. 1 x 4 x 5

(4)

(5)

(6)

2,460

4.84

2.5

15,149

3.06

3,248

6.39

3.0

18,058

Supersonic jet
353

.74

2,096

4.13

2.0

2,916

4-Engine turboprop......................

1 and 2 engine turboprop

....

49

.09

1,837

3.62

3.0

532

1 and 2 engine piston ..................

155

.08

516

1.02

2.0

316

4-Engine p is to n ............................

96

.12

1,250

2.46

3.0

708

H e lic o p te r.....................................

28

.03

1,071

2.11

2.0

118

T o t a l ............................

2,875

37,797

S O U R C E : N u m b e r in In ven to ry and T o ta l Revenue Hours F lo w n —A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 , o p . c it., tables
3 and 4 , pp. 2 2 and 2 3 .
Pilots per c rew —"S p ecif icatio ns-U .S . C om m ercial T ra n s p o rts /' A v ia tio n W eek a n d Space T echnology, V o l. 8 8 , N o . 12 March
18, 1 9 6 8 , p. 2 0 4 .

Table 22. U.S. air carrier pilot em ploym ent requirements projection to 1977 (method A )

Revenue hours
Average crews
flown by
per aircraft
aircraft
Col. 2 -r Col. 1 Col. 3 ^ 4 8 3

Number in
inventory

Total revenue
hours flown
(millions)

(1)

(2)

(3)

Engine j e t ....................
Engine jet

1,746

4.41

4-Engine j e t ..................................

1,091

Aircraft type

23-

Supersonic j e t ...............................

Pilots
per crew

Pilot
employment
Col. 1 x 4 x 5

(4)

(5)

(6)

2,526

5.23

2.5

22,829

3.50

3,208

6.64

3.0

21,733

86

.27

3,140

6.50

3.0

1,677

453

.97

2,141

4.43

2.0

4,014

4-Engine turboprop......................

35

.04

1,143

2.37

3.0

249

1 and 2 engine piston ..................

26

.05

1,923

3.98

2.0

207

4-Engine p is to n ............................

33

.04

1,212

2.51

3.0

248

H e lic o p te r.....................................

30

.04

1,333

2.76

2.0

T o t a l ............................

3,500

1 and 2 engine turboprop

....

166
51,123

S O U R C E : N um ber in In v e n to ry and T o ta l Revenue Hours F lo w n —A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 , op . c it., tables
3 and 4 , pp. 2 2 and 2 3 .
Pilots per c re w —"S p ecif icatio ns-U .S . C om m ercial Tran sp o rts," A v ia tio n W eek a n d Space Tech no log y, V o l. 8 8 , N o . 12 . M arch
18 , 1 9 6 8 , p. 2 0 4 .

20




CHART 3

EMPLOYMENT OF PILOTS BY
U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, 195 0-6 6 , A N D PROJECTED
EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS, 1972 A N D 1977

EMPLOYMENT (000)

(M E T H O D A)

SOURCE: 1950-60

- EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS AND CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL
STRUCTURE IN CIVIL AVIATION, op. cit.

1961

- FACTS AND FIGURES 1967, (AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF
AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D.C.).

1962-67

- FACTS AND FIGURES 1968, (AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF
AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D.C.).

1972 & 1977 - BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.




21

A verage crew s p e r aircraft. The average number of
crews per aircraft in the projected years (column 4) was
derived by dividing the expected average revenue hours
flown per individual aircraft (column 3) by a factor
representing average annual hours flown per crew.
Average annual hours flown per crew (508 for 1972 and
483 for 1977) were developed by extrapolating the
experience of one large air carrier between 1957 and
1966. The validity of attributing the experience of one
air carrier to all air carriers was tested in two ways: First,
by discussing the reasonableness of the procedure with
industry officials; and second, through testing the
projection technique by recreating total air carrier pilot
employment in a past year using the historical annual
hours experience of pilots employed by one major air
carrier, and comparing the results with published pilot
employment for that year.
Chart 4 shows the average monthly pilot pay hours
and actual flight hours for a major air carrier between
1957 and 1966 and BLS projections to 1972 and 1977.
With the induction of jet aircraft during the 1960’s, the
difference between pilot pay hours and flight hours
increased, but at a decreasing rate. In recent years, the
rate of decline in flight hours has slowed. By 1966, the
average stood at 48 compared with 68 in 1957, an
annual average decline of 3.3 percent. Between 1960 and
1966, however, average flight hours dropped from about
57 to 48, or an average of 2.6 percent a year. The slow
change in monthly flight hours anticipated after 1966
reflects the industry’s expectation that actual flying
hours per pilot will not continue to decline as rapidly as
between 1960 and 1966 when the conversion to jet
aircraft is complete. (Annual average flying hours used in
the estimating procedure are monthly hours multiplied
by 12 months.)
Industry officials agreed that the level and changes in
the level of average monthly flying hours for one major
carrier were reasonably representative of the industry as
a whole. Moreover, the test of method A using the
experience of this air carrier proved valid. Using these
data, total 1961 pilot employment in the air carriers
calculated by method A was only 3 percent below the
published level.
P ilo ts p e r crew . The numbers of pilots per crew used
in column 5 in tables 21 and 22 are consistent with
current Federal regulations and, for the projected years,
the opinions of industry officials for aircraft that will
become operational between 1967 and 1977. Once these
variables were determined, pilot projections then were
computed for each target year by multiplying the

22




number of aircraft by the average crews per aircraft and
the number of pilots per crew. Following the procedure
shown in tables 21 and 22, air carrier (including
supplemental airlines and commercial operator air car­
riers) pilot employment was estimated at approximately
37,800 in 1972 and 51,100 in 1977.
U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method B

To project pilot employment requirements by U.S.
route air carriers, a number of variables were selected
and regressed separately and in combination against a
series on historical employment. The purpose of these
tests was to determine the basic causes of change in the
employment series. Not only were variables finally
selected on the basis of the most logical underpinning
possible, but each variable was tested for statistical
significance.
To understand better the presentation that follows, a
number of limitations to the technique should be noted.
First, the types of series available, although perhaps
more numerous and of better quality than available for
the analysis of almost any other occupation, are none­
theless limited. Therefore, the specification of theories
in equation form made use of proxy variables that best
reflect influences relevant to the aircraft industry. In
some cases, variables that contribute significantly to the
explanation of changes in the level of employment of
pilots must be either discarded or redefined as proxies
before they can be accepted on the basis of empirical
evidence. The use of proxy variables is admittedly crude
and risky and places the burden of proof squarely on the
analysts undertaking the research. Second, a great deal
of multicolinearity (high inter-correlation) exist among
some of the explanatory variables tested. The rapid
growth of civil aviation over the last 20 years is
associated with the rapid growth of other variables
related to the industry. Therefore, although the correla­
tion between two variables may be high, (logical)
qualitative analysis would indicate that the actual cause
and effect relationship between them is rather low, both
having been influenced by a third variable. Third, the
development of an equation (theory) explaining changes
in past employment could not be divorced from con­
sideration of expected future changes in the explanatory
variables. The use of an equation for projection purposes
assumes that the environment of the system or model
generally will continue in the future as it has in the past
so that the impact of the variable will continue to be
similar. For air transportation, however, current indica­
tions are that this may not be true. A new dimension in
civil aviation may become important by the 1970’s that

CHART 4

AVERAGE M O NTHLY HOURS

PILOT MONTHLY PAY HOURS AND FLIGHT HOURS,
EXPERIENCE OF A MAJOR U.S. AIR CARRIER,
1957-66, AND BLS PROJECTIONS, 1972 AND 1977

SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.




Table 23. Data inputs fo r projecting requirements fo r U.S. route
air carrier pilots (method B) and mechanics

Y ear

Revenue a ircraft hours
(In thousands)

Speed
(miles flo w n -r hours flow n)

1 9 5 3 ...............................
1 9 5 4 ...............................
1 9 5 5 ...............................
1 9 5 6 ...............................
1957 ...............................
195 8 ...............................
1 95 9 ...............................
1 9 6 0 ...............................
1 9 6 1 ...............................
1 96 2 ...............................
1 9 6 3 ...............................
1 9 6 4 ...............................
1965 ...............................
1 9 6 6 ...............................
1967 ...............................

3 ,3 2 7 .6
3 ,3 6 5 .3
3,7 5 9.1
4 ,2 0 9 .7
4 ,6 8 3.1
4 ,5 7 1 .4
4 ,7 4 9 .4
4 ,2 8 1 .6
3 ,8 4 5 .9
3 ,7 3 6 .3
3 ,7 8 5 .3
3 ,9 4 7 .0
4 ,2 5 6 .6
4 ,7 8 1 .2
5 ,2 4 9 .3

200
209
213
216
219
224
228
243
264
287
302
314
333
335
351

1972

...............................

7 ,1 7 1 .9

382

...............................

9 ,2 3 4 .0

388

1977

S O U R C E : 1 9 5 3 - 5 4 : H a n d b o o k o f A ir lin e S ta tis tic s , 1 9 6 3 E d itio n , o p . c it.,
p. 1 2 7 . 1 9 5 5 - 6 4 : H a n d b o o k o f A ir lin e S ta tis tic s , 1 9 6 5 E d itio n , o p . c it., p . 1 2 9 .
1 9 6 5 - 6 6 : A i r C a rrie r T ra ffic S ta tis tic s , (C iv il A e ro n a u tic s B o a rd ), D e c e m b e r
1 9 6 6 , p . 1 . 1 9 6 7 - 7 7 : B u re au o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s .

will have an impact on pilot employment not adequately
accounted for in an equation that explains historical
changes in employment. The number of new aircraft
should grow more rapidly than in the past. The
passenger and freight capacity of aircraft is expected to
expand, while average airborne speed, influenced
strongly by the past introduction of jets, will tend to
increase at a slower rate in the future. In terms of model
development, these changes may reflect a major modifi­
cation in the environment. Such a limitation, of course,
is inherent in all projection models but may be particu­
larly applicable to air carrier operations.
The equation finally selected to project pilot employ­
ment by route air carriers was of the linear form y = a
+ bi Xi + b2 x + b3 x3, where y represents employment
of pilots, X! revenue hours flown, x2 speed, and x3 time.
y = -22,509 + .005006
(.0008)

+ .09187 X2 - .460801
(.0292)
(.3600)

The basic data used in the multiple regression
equation are shown in table 23, and the actual and
computed levels of pilot employment and the projected
employment requirements are presented in chart 5.
Table 24 provides additional information on the statisti­
cal relationship between the variables selected.
The three variables in the equation “ explain” 95
percent of the variation in employment of pilots over
the 1953-66 period. Although the number of observa­
tions is too small for the Durbin-Watson statistic to
apply, this statistic computed as a matter of routine was
1.79, which would indicate that unexplained residuals
24




on a year-to-year basis for a larger sample could be
distributed randomly about the line of regression. In
other words, the Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.79 is not
inconsistent with a randomly distributed series for a
larger sample. Finally, the independent variable taken
together—revenue aircraft hours and average airborne
speed—are statistically significant at the 95 percent level.
The time variable is much less significant.
Revenue aircraft hours. The impact of annual revenue
aircraft hours on the requirement for pilots is quite
clear. As hours flown increase, the demand for pilots will
also increase (all else remaining constant). The inter­
action of total revenue passenger miles and average
airborne speed are reflected in revenue aircraft hours. As
the number of miles increase, speed remaining constant,
hours rise (all else remaining constant), increasing the
requirements for pilots. Similarly, if speed increases and
miles flown remain constant, the demand for pilots
declines (all else remaining constant; for example, the
fleet mix of aircraft). Therefore, both quantitatively, in
terms of the equation, and qualitatively, in terms of
what could be expected empirically, an increase in
revenue aircraft hours normally will have a positive
influence on pilot requirements.
Average airborne speed. The second independent
variable, average airborne speed, is used in the equation
not as speed per se, which is accounted for in the
revenue aircraft hours variable, but as a proxy for factors
such as the changing composition of the fleets, the
utilization rates of the various types of aircraft, and the
general complexity of air carrier operations. In other
words, the variable is an indicator of the type of
technology and its influence on pilot requirements as it
affects the nature of air carrier operations: for example,
the rapid increase in average airborne speed in the late
1950’s and in the 1960’s (table 23) reflects the
Table 24. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting
employment requirements for pilots in U.S. route air carriers (method B)

I ndependent variable

A 1 / .....................................
B ? / ........................................
C ? / .....................................
A l / , B 2 / .............................
A 1 / , C 3 / ...........................
A 1 / , b ? / . c 3 / ..................

1 /a
2 /b
2 /c

Variables
Projected
statistically Standard
pilot
significant error o f
em ploym ent
estimate
(t-value)
(1977)
p = .05
4 5 ,2 9 3
2 6 ,4 19
31,8 88
4 7,0 47
4 5 ,8 25
4 7 ,8 3 4

i/A
2 /3
3 /c
V A , 2 /0
1 /A , 3 / c
1 /A ,2 /B

= Revenue a irc ra ft hours.
= Average a irb o rn e speed.
= T im e .

SOURCE:

Bureau o f L ab o r S tatistics.

2,911
2,315
1,964
1,014
1,326
986

2

Durbin-Watson
(based on 14
years o f data)

0 .4 6
.66
.75
.94
.90
.95

0.21
.84
.88
1.46
.89
1.79

r

CHART 5

EMPLOYMENT OF PILOTS IN
U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, ACTUAL 1 953-66, A N D
ESTIMATED 1 9 5 3 -6 6 , 1972, A N D 1977
(METHOD B)
_____
--------

X x = REVENUE AIRCRAFT HOURS
X 2 = AVERAGE AIRBORNE SPEED
X 3 = TIME

ACTUAL
CALCULATED

EMPLOYMENT (000)

y = -22,509 + .005006 X* + .091857 X 2 - .460801 X 3
(.0008)
(.0292)
(.3600)

1953

55

57

59

61

63

65

1977

SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.




25

continuing introduction of jet aircraft into the fleet and,
theoretically, should have resulted in a reduction of pilot
requirements (all else remaining constant). However, not
only did jet aircraft generally require more pilots and
crews per aircraft during this period (more complex
technology and higher utilization), but the preparation
time for pilots in relation to actual flying time also
increased. (See chart 4.) This increase had a positive
impact on requirements for pilots. In short, the average
airborne speed in the late 1950’s and 1960’s serves as a
proxy for the impact of the changing technology and
environment of air carrier operations during this period.
BLS estimates, derived from FAA forecasts, show that
the average airborne speed of aircraft will increase at a
much slower pace through 1977. According to FAA,26
the substitution of jet for propeller-driven craft will be
completed in the early 1970’s. Thus, the impact of jet
aircraft on pilot requirements will not be as important a
factor through most of the 1970’s as during the late
1950’s and 1960’s. Therefore, the effect of the expected
slowdown in the growth of the speed variable on pilot
requirements aptly simulates what should be expected
over the projection period as the technology and
environment of air carrier operations changes.
Admittedly, average airborne speed is a crude factor
to measure the net impact of all the complex and diverse
factors that affect requirements for pilots. However,
data were limited, and attempts to develop variables
more directly representing the influence of factors such
as the mix of aircraft were not successful. Test equations
became extremely complex and unwieldy, and the
quality of the data inputs became questionable, notwith­
standing the practical problem of adequately projecting
these variables before an estimate of pilot employment
in the target year could be developed.
Time. Time as an independent variable in the method
B equation measures the net impact of the changing
relationship among revenue aircraft hours, the proxy
variable, and pilot employment during the 1953-66
period. It may, for example, be measuring a general
increase in the efficiency of air carrier operations over
the period caused by factors such as improved schedul­
ing of flights, improved aid to pilot flight preparation,
arid economies of scale. Time in the equation (with
other influences being held constant) has a negative
influence On requirements for pilots. If revenue aircraft
hours and speed were unchanged from one year to the

26A viation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 3,
p. 22.

26




Table 25. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting
employment requirements for mechanics in U.S. route air carriers

1independent variable

1 / .....................................
B2 / .....................................

a

C3 / .....................................
A 1 / B 2 / ...........................
A 1/ C 3 / ...........................
A ! / , b 2 / , c 3 / .................

VA
2 /b
3 /C

Variables
Projected
statistically
mechanic
significant
em ploym ent
(t-value)
(1977)
p = .05
61,9 48
46,801
5 4,0 88
6 4,7 79
62,811
6 5 ,8 4 4

2 /b

3/c
1 /A ,2 /B

3/C
! / a , 2 /b

Standard
error of
estimate

R2

Durbin-Watson
(based on 14
years o f data)

4,657
2,3 2 6
2,1 2 6
1,497
1,993
1,474

0 .2 6
.81
.85
.93
.88
.94

0 .22
1.09
1.03
1.72
1.02
2 .02

= Revenue a irc ra ft hours.
= A verage a irb o rn e speed.
- T im e .

SOURCE:

B u re a u 'o f L a b o r S tatistics.

next, about 460 fewer pilots would be needed to
maintain the level of air carrier operations. The magni­
tude of the impact of the time variable appears
reasonable.
The 1977 U.S. route air carrier pilot employment
projection developed through method B is 47,800. (See
chart 5.) Supplemental airline and commercial operators
pilot employment in 1977, not covered by this tech­
nique, is estimated at about 3,000; this increase brings
the total U.S. air carrier pilot projection to nearly
51,000. This estimate is nearly identical to the estimate
derived through method A. (See table 22.)
U.S. air carrier mechanic projection method

A number of variables were selected and regressed
separately and in combination against mechanic employ­
ment in U.S. route air carriers for the period 1953-66.
All variables were analyzed before the explanatory
equation was selected and used to project mechanic
employment requirements.
The combination of variables best explaining
mechanic employment in U.S. route air carriers over the
1953-66 period was revenue aircraft hours, average
airborne speed, and time. The explanatory variables and
the form of the equation were the same as those selected
for projecting pilot employment (page 24) and are as
follows:
y = -16,158 + .004739 X! + .138728 X2 - .623520 X3
(.0013)
(.0437)
(.5383)
The basic data used in the equation are shown in
table 23, and the actual and computed levels of
mechanic employment and the projected requirements
are presented in chart 6. Table 25 provides additional
information on the statistical relationships among the
variables selected. In summary, the three independent
variables together explain about 94 percent of the

CHART 6

EMPLOYMENT OF MECHANICS IN
U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, ACTUAL 1 9 5 3-6 6 ,
A N D ESTIMATED 195 3-6 6 , 1972, A N D 1977
Xx = REVENUE AIRCRAFT HOURS
X2 = AVERAGE AIRBORNE SPEED
X3 = TIME

ACTUAL
CALCULATED

y = -16,158 + .004739 Xx + .138728 X2 - .623520 X3
(.0013)
(.0437)
(.5383)
65,800
65
58,400

EMPLOYMENT (000)

55

45

35

25
_l_____ l_

1953 55

57

59

i

i

i

61

63

65

___I________________ I

1972

1977

SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.




27

variation in mechanic employment between 1953 and
1966. The unexplained residuals are not inconsistent
with being distributed randomly. Both hours and speed
are statistically significant in the equation; time is much
less so. Based on the information available, a final
projection for mechanics of 67,000 for 1977 and 58,500
for 1972 seems reasonable. These projected require­
ments levels are somewhat above the computed levels
but well within the possible range of error in the
computed projection. (See table 25.) This upward
adjustment was made to reflect the anticipated ratio of
mechanics to aircraft. (See discussion, page —)
In addition to mechanics employed by certificated
route air carriers, a relatively small number of mechanics
are employed by supplemental and commercial opera­
tors. The number of mechanics employed by these
carriers is estimated at about 2,500 in 1972 and 3,000 in
1977; the total U.S. air carrier mechanic employment
projections are 61,000 for 1972 and 70,000 for 1977.
Revenue aircraft hours. Annual revenue aircraft hours
is a very important determinant of the requirements for
mechanics. Given fleet size and mix, the demand for
mechanics rises as revenue aircraft hours increase.
Average airborne speed. Speed, in the equation
explaining mechanic employment, functions in much the
same manner as in the equation explaining pilot employ­
ment. It is a proxy for the changing mix and utilization
of aircraft and the level of technology embodied in the
aircraft. In addition, the general efficiency of the process
of providing fleet maintenance is also reflected by the
speed value in the equation. The problems involved in
performing multiple regression analysis for the air carrier
industry and the limitations of proxy variables were
discussed earlier. (See pp. 22 and 24.)
Time. Time as an independent variable in the equa­
tion explains the net impact of the changing relationship
between revenue aircraft hours, the proxy variable
speed, and mechanic employment during the 1953-66
period. Moreover, time may be measuring a long-term
improvement in the reliability of aircraft equipment and
in the efficiency of aircraft maintenance and repair
services. According to the results of the equation, if
revenue aircraft hours and speed were unchanged from 1
year to the next, about 624 fewer mechanics would be
needed to maintain the fleet in the second year. Similar
to the impact of time in the equation for projecting pilot
requirements, the magnitude of the impact appears
reasonable in this equation.

28




Table 26. Ratio of mechanics to aircraft, U.S. route air carriers, 1953-67

Year

1953 ...................................................................
1954 .........................................................
1955 ...................................................................
1956 .........................................................................
1957 .........................................................................
1958 .........................................................................
1959 .........................................................................
1960 .........................................................................
1 9 6 1 .........................................................................
1962 .........................................................................
1963 .........................................................................
1 96 4 .........................................................................
1965 .........................................................................
1966 .........................................................................
1967 .........................................................................

Mechanics

A irc ra ft

Ratio o f
mechanics to
aircraft

2 7 ,4 0 0
2 6 ,1 0 0
3 0 ,4 0 0
3 2 .7 0 0
3 2 ,9 0 0
3 0 ,8 0 0
3 2 ,8 0 0
3 4 ,5 0 0
3 4 ,0 6 5
3 4 ,9 2 5
3 4 ,4 5 3
3 9 ,3 6 0
4 1,6 67
4 5 ,3 2 7
5 0 ,0 1 6

1,421
1 .446
1,480
1 ,723
1,835
1,895
1,850
1,867
1,877
1,831
1,832
1 ,863
1,896
2 ,027
2 ,1 8 8

19.3
18.0
20.5
19.0
17.9
16.3
17.7
18.5
18.1
19.1
18.8
21.1
2 2.0
2 2.4
22.9

S O U R C E : 1 9 5 3 -6 0 : E m p lo y m e n t R e qu irem e n ts a n d Changing O ccu p a tio n a l
S tru c tu re in C iv il A v ia tio n , o p . c it., p p . 1 8 and 2 1 . 1 9 6 1 -6 6 : F A A S ta tis tic a l H and­
b o o k o f A v ia tio n , o p . c it .f 1 9 6 2 -6 7 E d itio n s . 1 9 6 7 : Facts a n d Figures, 1968, o p . c it.,
pp. 3 8 and 4 0 .

To verify the reasonableness of the above mechanic
projections, mechanic to aircraft ratios were computed
for the period 1953-66 and compared with the corre­
sponding ratio implied by the 1977 projections. (See
table 26.) Based on the FAA forecasts of 3,500 aircraft
in the fleet in 1977,27 the projection of 70,000
mechanics in 1977 results in a ratio of 20 mechanics to
each aircraft—a ratio somewhat higher than in most of
the 1953-66 period but somewhat below the level in the
mid-1960’s. The ratios appeared reasonable for several
reasons. First, the number of aircraft used to develop the
ratios for the projection periods represent all U.S. air
carriers, whereas those for the 1953-67 period are only
for U.S. route air carriers. The smaller supplemental and
commercial operators contract out a large share of their
maintenance activities to general aviation repair stations.
If these carriers were included in the 1953-67 data, the
resulting ratios would be somewhat lower. Second, the
recent high mechanic-to-aircraft ratios may be viewed as
unusual—perhaps a response to recent rapid rises in air
travel and aircraft utilization rates. Also, the training of
mechanics probably was increased during this period as
the shiftover from piston to jet aircraft and the
introduction of second generation jets required reorien­
tation and refresher courses for some mechanics. Thus,
with large numbers of mechanics being retrained, the
employment level of mechanics rose atypically. On the
other hand, the high ratios of mechanics to aircraft in
the mid-1960’s may signify that the mix of aircraft of
the future will require an increasing number of
mechanics per aircraft. The increased complexity of
instrumentation, for example, may more than offset the
21 Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 3,
p. 22.

Table 27. Preliminary and final estimates of the instructional flying aircraft fleet,
by type of aircraft, 1967, 1972, and 1977

1964
fleet
size

Type of aircraft

1975
original
FAA
forecast of
fleet size

Final estimate of
fleet size

Preliminary estimates of fleet size
Interpolated
1967

I nterpolated
1972

Extrapolated
1977

1967

1972

1977

T o t a l............

6,855

14,550

9,059

12,731

15,952

8,680

12,775

16,399

Single-engine.................
M ultiengine.................
Turbine..........................
Rotorcraft....................
Other .............................

6,545
120
9
73
108

14,000
200
30
170
150

8,666
142
20
109
122

12,200
178
39
168
146

15,357
215
34
188
158

8,315
134
9
96
126

12,267
175
32
150
151

15,734
210
58
227
170

S O U R C E : 1 9 6 4 F lee t S ize —General A viatio n —A Study and Forecast o f the F leet and its Use in 1975, op . c it., p p . 4 8 -5 2 . Pre­
lim in a ry and fin a l estim ates fo r 1 9 6 7 , 1 9 7 2 , and 1 9 7 7 developed by th e Bureau o f Labo r Statistics.

easier to maintain jet engines, the greater efficiencies in
aircraft maintenance, and the greater reliability of
electronic equipment. The argument in favor of higher
mechanic to aircraft ratios in the future was discarded,
however, after discussing the matter with industry
officials and evaluating the experience of other indus­
tries as to the effect of rapid changes in technology on
mechanic levels. Thus, the projected employment
requirements for mechanics by the air carriers of 61,000
and 70,000 for 1972 and 1977, respectively, were
considered reasonable.

General aviation
requirements

pilot

and

mechanic

employment

Hie lack of historical data on general aviation pilot
and mechanic employment made more difficult the
development of methods for projecting employment in
this sector. The specificity needed in pilot projections
(type of flying) further narrowed the potential
approaches. The methods selected and described in the
following paragraphs were designed to utilize the data
that were already available or that could be developed
from existing records. These methods, and those of the
air carriers, were designed to reflect forecasts of key
industry variables published by the FAA; for example,
forecasts of the size and composition of the aircraft fleet
and flight hours. They were structured so that future
shifts in FAA forecasts may be incorporated into the
procedures and their implications on manpower require­
ments measured. The employment projections presented
28A viation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit.




in this study reflect, and are dependent upon, the
realization of general aviation forecasts prepared by
FAA.28
General aviation pilot projection method

In general, the procedure selected to project general
aviation pilot employment requirements by type of
flying was (1) to construct current pilot-to-aircraft
ratios; (2) project these relationships to the target years;
and (3) apply the projected relationship to aircraft fleet
forecasts. This procedure assumes that there exists a
relationship between changes in the number of aircraft
operated by the various sectors of general aviation and
the requirements for pilots. The three basic inputs used
in this system are:
1. Current pilot employment by type of flying.
2. Fleet size for each flying activity, by type of
aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977.
3. Pilot-to-aircraft ratios for each type of flying
activity, by type of aircraft, 1967, 1972, and
1977.
Current pilot em ploym ent. In the past, studies
conducted to determine future pilot needs in general
aviation have been hampered by the complete lack of
reliable data on the current employment of professional
pilots. The availability of current employment is essen­
tial, of course, as a base upon which to build projections.
To establish current pilot employment, the FAA was
requested to prepare a special tabulation of pilot
employment from active aeromedical records. This
tabulation provided an unduplicated count of all pilots
residing in the United States who had undergone the
required medical examination during the 15-month

29

period ending August 1967. This tabulation identified
both the occupation and industry of employment of the
pilots and made possible the elimination of all nonpro­
fessional pilots from consideration in the pilot count.
For example, those reporting their primary occupation
as other than pilot were deleted. Similarly, pilots
employed outside of general aviation, such as airlines
and government, were removed.
The following tabulation shows pilot employment
levels in 1967 for each type of flying activity, derived
from FAA aeromedical records:

T ype o f flying

1967
P ilo t e m p l o y m e n t

Total, general a v ia t io n ................ ..........................
Aerial a p p lica tio n .................... .......................
Instructional f l y in g ................ .......................
Other f l y i n g ............................. .......................
Total, not sp e c ifie d ....................... .......................
E xecu tive.................................... .......................
Air T axi....................................... .......................
Industrial/special....................... .......................

25,028
1,543
3,336
^00
19,649
2 11,893
*6,224
2 1,532

1 Based on the small size and low utilization o f the aircraft in
this flying activity, pilot employment was estimated to be about
500 in 1967. It should be noted that while this is basically a
judgment estimate, it seems reasonable and, even if it is in
substantial error, it would have little impact on total pilot
remrirements during the next decade.
2 Only a single employment control total for executive,
air taxi, and industrial/special flying activities could be obtained
from the FAA medical records data. To determine the 1967
employment levels for each o f these flying activities, the control
total was used to establish pilot/aircraft ratios. The ratios then
were applied to estimates o f the aircraft fleet by type o f aircraft
in each activity and the resulting pilot employment summed to a
total for each activity.

General aviation aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft and
flying activity, 1967' 1972, and 1977. Estimates of the
general aviation fleet size by type of aircraft and type of
flying were derived through the use of two FAA reports.
The first provided 1975 fleet forecasts by type of
aircraft for each activity.29 The second provided revised
forecasts at an aggregated level but did not identify the
information on aircraft by type of flying (table 11). To
move from the forecasts presented in these reports to
the final fleet estimates required by the projection
technique, three separate steps were required. First,
using the 1964-75 data presented in the first FAA
report, preliminary 1967,1972, and 1977 fleet estimates
29General A viation—A S tu dy and Forecast o f the F leet and
Its Use in 1975 (Federal Aviation Administration, July 1966).
30 General Aviation, A S tu dy and Forecast o f the F leet and
Its Uses, 1975, (Federal Aviation Administration, July 1966),
tables 24-53.

30




were developed by type of flying and type of aircraft by
extrapolating the 1964-75 estimated aircraft fleet to
1977 and interpolating to derive 1967 and 1972
estimates. These preliminary estimates then were totaled
by type of aircraft and compared with the more recent
FAA forecasts. Revised estimates of fleet size for each
type of flying then were computed by forcing, on a
simple prorata basis, the preliminary estimates to the
more current FAA forecasts. (Table 27 illustrates this
procedure and shows the resulting 1967, 1972, and 1977
fleet estimates for instructional flying.) Since this study
concerns only professional pilots, the final step was to
eliminate from the fleet estimates all aircraft used in
personal flying, as well as business aircraft flown by
nonprofessionals. Aircraft used for personal purposes
were removed simply by subtracting from the total
general aviation fleet all aircraft used in personal flying.
On the other hand, the business fleet was first divided
into two components—executive and other business—on
the basis of the proportion reported in each activity in
1964. The aircraft in the “ other business” component
then were subtracted from the general aviation fleet
estimates. Table 28 shows the final estimates and
projections of fleet size for each flying activity by type
of aircraft derived through this procedure.

General aviation pilot/aircraft ratios. Having devel­
oped estimates of pilot employment and aircraft fleet
for each flying activity, an overall pilot-to-aircraft ratio
then could be computed (pilot employment/number of
aircraft) for each type of flying in general aviation.
However, in order that final pilot employment projec­
tions reflect the forecasted shifts in aircraft fleet mix
during the next decade, it was necessary to establish
pilot-to-aircraft ratios for each type of aircraft in each
flying activity.
Such ratios were computed separately for aerial
application, instructional flying, and other flying. Only
one set of ratios representing executive transportation,
air taxi, and industrial/special flying combined could be
developed, since pilot employment data from FAA
aeromedical records were limited to a single control total
covering all three of these activities. Although a distinct
set of ratios for each flying activity would be preferable,
the single set may be adequate since the aircraft
utilization patterns reported30 for these flying activities
are quite similar.
Table 29 illustrates the procedures followed in
developing pilot/aircraft ratios for executive, air taxi,
and industrial/special flying combined. First, the 1964
aircraft fleet and total flight hours by type of aircraft

Table 28. Estim ated general aviation aircraft fle e t,!/ by type
o f flyin g and type o f aircraft, 1 9 6 7 ,1 9 7 2 , and 1977

Type of aircraft
Type of flying
Total aircraft

Single-engine

Multiengine

Turbine

Rotorcraft

Other

Executive transportation:
1967 .........................................
1972 .........................................
1977 .........................................

12,610
17,500
22,817

5,974
7,203
8,103

5,601
6,724
7,978

705
2,993
5,814

330
580
922

—

Air-taxi:
1967
1972
1977

.........................................
.........................................
.........................................

7,029
11,198
15,270

4,091
5,567
6,810

2,300
4,151
5,880

172
811
1,618

456
642
919

10
27
43

Aerial application:
1967 .........................................
1972 .........................................
1977 .........................................

5,169
6,240
7,081

4,905
5,859
6,542

87
95
100

—
—

177
286
439

—

—

Industrial/special:
1967 .........................................
1972 .........................................
1977 .........................................

1,867
2,206
2,513

1,348
1,553
1,685

236
276
306

—

279
371
514

4
6
8

Instructional:
1967 .........................................
1972 .........................................
1977 .........................................

8,680
12,775
16,399

8,315
12,267
15,734

134
175
210

9
32
58

96
150
227

126
151
170

2,235
2,814
3,302

1,697
2,157
2,522

360
325
273

7
22
38

100
172
271

71
138
198

—

—
—

—
—

—

Other:
1967
1972
1977

.........................................
.........................................
.........................................

-1 /E x clu d es a irc ra ft in personal and business fly in g e x c e p t execu tive tra n s p o rta tio n .
SOURCE:

Bureau o f L abo r Statistics.

reported by the FAA were used to obtain average annual
hours flown by type of aircraft (Col. 3). The annual
flight hours then were applied to the estimated 1967
aircraft fleet resulting in estimates of total hours flown
by each type of aircraft for 1967. Total 1967 hours then
were adjusted for the estimated crew compliment (Col.
7), and the resulting distribution (Col. 8) was used to
distribute the total pilot population (19,649) (Col. 9)
among the various type aircraft. Individual pilot/aircraft
ratios for each type of aircraft then were computed by
simply relating the number of pilots to the number of
aircraft (Col. 10).
This procedure was followed for each of the other
flying activities, i.e.,-aerial application, instructional
flying, and other flying activities. Estimates of pilots per
crew for multi-engine aircraft varied among the flying
activities, depending on the proportion of aircraft over




800 h.p. to the total number of multi-engine aircraft in
the various flying activities. The estimated number of
pilots per crew for turbine powered aircraft was based
on normal crew compliments reported by FAA.31
The final estimates of 1967 pilot-to-aircraft ratios
developed for general aviation, by type of aircraft and
type of flying, are shown in table 30.
Projections of pilot-to-aircraft ratios in general avia­
tion to 1972 and 1977 were based on expected changes
in aircraft utilization patterns (hours flown), assuming
that regulated crew sizes in each type of flying activity
will not change over the projection period. Table 31
shows that FAA forecasts little change in the average
flight hours for most types of aircraft flown by
professional pilots in general aviation, the sole exception
31 Ibid.
31

Table 29. Procedure for estimating executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying

ts )

pilot/aircraft ratios, by type of aircraft, 1967

Type of aircraft

Aircraft
fleet1/

(1)
Total . . .
Single-engine . . .
Multiengine . . .
Turbine..............
Rotorcraft . . . .
Other .................

1964
total hours
flown^/
(In thousands)

1964
average
hours flown
per aircraft
(Col. 2 t Col. 1)

1967
estimated
aircraft
fleet 3/

1967
estimated
hours flown
(In thousands)
(Col. 3 x Col. 4)

Pilots
per
crew

Weight
flight hours
(In thousands)
(Col. 5 x Col. 6)

Percent
distribution
of weight
flight hours

1967
estimated
number of
pilots

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)
—

28,205

8,189

—

21,506

6,428

—

7,246

100.0

19,649

18,333
8,652
285
932
3

5,091
2,643
127
326
2

277.7
305.5
445.6
349.8
666.7

11,413
8,137
877
1,065
14

3,169
2,486
391
373
9

1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.00

3,169
3,108
587
373
9

43.7
42.9
8.1
5.2
.1

8,587
8,429
1,592
1,022
20

1967
estimated
pilot/aircraft
ratios
(Col. 9 -rCol. 4)

.7524
1.0359
1.8153
.9596
1.4286

S O U R C E : 1 9 64 A ircra ft Fleet — General A viatio n —A Study and Forecast o f the F leet and Its Use in 1975, op. cit., appendix tables C, I, and M , pp. 109, 115, and 119. 1 9 6 4 to tal
hours flo w n —Ib id., appendix tables D , J, and N, pp. 110, 116, and 120. 1967 estimated aircraft fle e t—Bureau o f Labor Statistics. See table 28 . Pilots per C rew —General A v ia tio n A S tudy and Forecast o f the F leet and Its Use in 1975, op. cit., tables 42 and 43 . 1967 estimated number of pilots—pilots population from te x t tabulation, p. 9 3 .




Table 30. Estimated ratio of pilots to aircraft in general aviation, by type of
aircraft and type of flying, 1967

Type of aircraft
Type of flying
Single-engine

Multiengine

Executive transportation..................................................................

0.75

A ir-taxi...............................................................................................

.75

Turbine

Rotorcraft

1.04

1.82

0.96

1.43

1.04

1.82

.96

1.43

Other

Aerial application.............................................................................

.29

.13

I ndustrial/special.............................................................................

.75

1.04

1.82

.96

1.43

Instructional......................................................................................

.39

.43

.78

.39

.13

O th e r.............................................................................................

.15

.37

1.71

.80

.31

N O TE : Ratios have been rounded for presentation.
S O U R C E : Bureau of Labor Statistics.

.

—

.69

—

being a 25 percent rise in the flight hours of turbinepowered aircraft. To reflect FAA’s forecast of a rise in
turbine aircraft utilization in BLS projections of
pilot/aircraft ratios, the 1967 turbine ratios for each
type of flying activity were increased by 12.5 percent
and 25 percent for 1972 and 1977, respectively. The
1972 and 1977 ratios for all other types of aircraft were
held at their 1967 levels.
The last step in projecting employment requirements
for pilots in general aviation was to apply the individual
pilot/aircraft ratios developed for 1972 and 1977, by
type of aircraft, to the corresponding estimate of fleet
size in each flying activity. (See table 32 for an
illustration of this procedure as applied to instructional
flying.) The resulting number of pilots, by type of
aircraft, then were totaled for each flying activity. (See
table 18 for final projections of pilot employment
requirements in general aviation.)
It should be noted again that the development of
satisfactory pilot projection methods was hampered
severely by the lack of relevant statistical data. Should
data such as an annual series on pilot employment in
general aviation become available, the method presented
here should be reappraised.
General aviation mechanic projection method

The method used to project mechanic employment
requirements in general aviation involved the develop­
ment of 1967 ratio of mechanics to total general
aviation flight hours, and the application of this ratio to
FAA forecasts32 of flight hours in 1972 and 1977. This
procedure assumes that increases in mechanic produc­
tivity-resulting from improved tools, testing equipment,
and the centralization of repair activities will be offset
by the continued trend toward larger, more complex
aircraft with higher maintenance requirements. Of the
available data, flight hours were selected as the best
measure of future growth in mechanic employment,
since a large share of aircraft maintenance results from
regulations requiring aircraft inspection and overhaul
based on the number of hours flown.
To determine a 1967 mechanic employment level,
two sources were utilized. First, an estimate was made of
mechanic employment in certificated repair stations by
tabulating the number of technical personnel (mechanics

Table 31. Average annual utilization of general aviation aircraft,
by type of aircraft, 1964, and forecast to 1975
Average annual utilization
(hours flow n)
Ty pe o f aircraft
1964

1975

Percent change,
1964-75

Single engine piston (four-places and o v e r). . .

176

172

-

2.3

Multiengine p i s t o n ..................................................

278

2 60

-

6.5

Turbine

......................................................................

4 48

560

+ 2 5 .0

R o t o r c r a ft..................................................................

342

337

-

1.5

O ther ............................................................................

88

83

-

5.7

S O U R C E : G eneral A v ia tio n —A S tu d y and Forecast o f th e F le e t and Its Use in
1 9 7 5 , o p . c it., ta b le 2 ; P t. I l l , p . 1 9 .

and repairmen) shown on each repair station’s annual
inspection report (FAA form 3572).33 Employees of
certificated repair stations outside general aviation, i.e.,
government and air carriers, were identified and
deducted from the total. Next, estimates of mechanics
and repairmen employed in noncertificated repair sta­
tions were obtained from unpublished records main­
tained at each FAA regional office. By combining the
data from these sources, mechanic employment in 1967
was estimated to be 50,400 (table 16). Using this
employment estimate, the ratio of mechanic to flight
hours was computed and applied to the FAA 1972 and
1977 forecast of flight hours in general aviation (table
12). Following this procedure, requirements for
mechanics were projected to increase to 72,100 in 1972
and 92,800 in 1977.
Government pilot and mechanic employment
requirements

The projections of pilot employment requirements in
government are judgmental, based on an analysis of
available historical data and discussions with knowledge­
able government officials. The relatively small numbers
of pilots and mechanics employed in this sector, coupled
with limited data available, precluded the development
of a projection model. Current levels of pilot and
mechanic employment in nonmilitary government agen­
cies was compiled from several sources. The U.S. Civil
Service Commission provided historical information on
most pilots employed by Federal agencies. Additional
data were obtained directly from the principal Federal
agencies employing pilots and mechanics. State and local
government estimates were developed from the special
tabulation of aeromedical records provided by the FAA.
To project employment, historical data relating to
32A viation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 8,
p. 27.
Federal Government employment of pilots and
33
In addition to the total number o f technical personnel, this
mechanics were analyzed. Discussions concerning prob­
report also enumerates separately the number o f mechanics and
able future developments were held with officials of
repairmen who were certificated.




33

Table 32. Procedure for projecting employment requirements for pilots in
instructional flying, by type of aircraft, 1972 and 1977
1972

Type of aircraft

T o t a l ...................................................

1977

Aircraft
fleet

Pilot/aircraft
ratios

Pilot
employment
requirements
(Col. 1 x Col. 2)

Aircraft
fleet

Pilot/aircraft
ratios

Pilot
employment
requirements
(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

12,775

—

4,927

16,399

—

6,344

...............

12,267

.3870

4,747

15,734

.3870

6,089

M u ltie n g in e .........................................................

175

.4254

74

210

.4254

89

Tu rb ine..................................................................

32

.77781/

28

58

.77781/

56

R o to rc ra ft............................................................

150

.3854

58

227

.3854

87

O th e r .....................................................................

151

.1349

20

170

.1349

23

Single-engine (four-places and over)

■1/1967 pilot/aircraft ratios for turbine aircraft were adjusted upwards by 12.5 percent to derive the 1972 estimate and by 25 percent for
the 1977 estimate; ail other ratios were maintained at the 1967 level.
SOURCE: Aircraft Fleet—data from table 27. Pilot/aircraft ratios—data from table 29 (unrounded).

most of the principal Federal agencies employing these
workers. Based on this information, requirements for
pilots are expected to increase from an estimated 2,000
in 1967 to 2,400 by 1972 and 2,900 by 1977 (table 19).
Mechanic employment, however, is expected to remain
at about 1,100 throughout the projection period.
Pilot and mechanic replacement requirements

For the purpose of this study, replacement require­
ments relate to the number of pilots and mechanics who
will be needed to replace those who leave employment
due to normal, early, and disability retirement, and
death.34 Lack of data prevented the development of a
single, systematic procedure for estimating pilot and
mechanic replacement needs for each sector of civil
34
To fully appraise the overall requirements for pilots
mechanics in civil aviation over the next decade, transfers out o f
these occupations should be considered. However, lack o f
appropriate data made the development o f such estimates
impossible. A transfer out o f an occupation occurs when a
worker moves to another occupation, e.g., from airline pilot to
real estate salesman or from aircraft mechanic to automobile
mechanic. Hypothetically, if 5 percent o f the mechanics
employed in civil aviation transferred out each year over the
next decade, about 65,000 job openings would be created.
However, caution should be used in interpreting such estimates.
An analysis o f the supply o f workers in the occupation, not
attempted in this study, would include data on transfers to
aircraft mechanic from other occupations. The magnitude o f
transfers-in theoretically could exceed, equal, or fall short o f the
number o f transfers-out. Thus, the number o f transfers-in can
reduce the importance o f transfers-out in any evaluation o f
occupational requirements. Equally important, the experience
level o f workers transferring into an occupation should be
evaluated in developing estimates o f training requirements.

34




aviation. In air carriers, all pilots reaching age 60 during
the decade ahead were assumed to have retired. Esti­
mates of early retirements, disability retirements, and
deaths were based on recent industry experience. In
general aviation and government, all pilots reaching age
65 were assumed to have retired. Losses due to death,
early retirement, etc., were developed using the BLS age
specific separation rates. These rates also were used to
estimate mechanic losses in all three sectors of civil
aviation.
U.S. air carrier p ilo t re p la ce m en t needs. The tech­
nique used to estimate U.S. air carrier pilot losses due to
retirement and death were based on the following major
assumptions: (1) The mandatory retirement age for U.S.
air carrier pilots will remain at age 60, and early
retirement provisions will remain open to most airline
andpilots at age 55; (2) The number of pilots leaving
employment for other than normal retirement, i.e., for
early retirement, disability retirement, and death, will
follow patterns similar to recent experience; and (3) the
new pilots hired by air carriers will be limited to persons
under 45 years of age.
During the next decade, a large proportion of
replacement needs will stem from the retirement of
currently employed pilots. (According to this study,
retirements alone will account for 70 percent of all
replacement needs.) Currently, FAA regulations require
that air carrier pilots retire at 60 years of age. Most
company, union, and Government officials indicate that
a change in the mandatory retirement age is unlikely
over the next decade.

Since all pilots currently over 50 years of age will
retire or otherwise leave the labor force during the
1967-77 decade, the first step was to obtain an age
distribution of currently employed U.S. air carrier pilots.
For this purpose, a special unpublished tabulation was
prepared from FAA aeromedical records reporting the
age distribution of all air carrier pilots. Pilot retirement
losses then were derived by totaling the number of pilots
reaching the mandatory retirement age during each of
the projection p eriods-1968-72 and 1973-77. For
example, all air carrier pilots currently 55-59 years of
age will leave the work force by 1972. This procedure
accounted for losses, due to all causes, that will be
experienced by pilots currently 50 years of age or
over.35
In addition, it was necessary to estimate the number
of pilots currently under 50 years of age who will take
advantage of early retirement options. Air carrier pilots,
currently 45 to 50 years of age, will be eligible for early
retirement some time during the 1973-77 period. Esti­
mates of early retirements for these pilots were devel­
oped from a special survey couaucted by the Air
Transport Association.36 This survey reported the num­
ber of early retirements experienced during 1966. By
relating early retirements to the eligible pilot population
(those 55-60 years of age) in 1966, an early retirement
rate of 1.84 percent was derived. Estimates of early
retirements for the 1973-77 period then were computed
by applying this rate to the number of pilots eligible for
early retirement each year beginning in 1973 (the year
those currently 50 years of age are eligible for early
retirement).
The remaining replacement requirements covered by
this study, i.e., those stemming from disability retire­
ment and death of persons under 50 years of age, were
developed based on 1966 experience reported in the

previously cited special ATA survey. An annual rate was
developed from this survey that measured the number of
pilots leaving the work force in 1966 either because of
disability, retirement, or death. Estimates for the next
decade then were computed by applying this rate (.35
percent) to the total pilot employment projection needs
for each year from 1968 to 1977. (See table 9 for
estimates of U.S. air carrier pilot replacement needs.)
G eneral aviation an d g o ve rn m en t p ilo t re p la cem en t
needs. The estimates of retirement and death require­

ments for general aviation and government pilots were
based on a number of assumptions. First, to facilitate
estimating pilot retirements, it was assumed that general
aviation and government pilots will retire by age 65.
Since fewer than 150 pilots over 65 years of age were
employed in general aviation in 1967, this stipulation
had little impact on future pilot needs. Second, the age
distribution of pilots in general aviation and government
was assumed to remain constant through the decade
ahead. Finally, it was assumed that “age specific
separation rates,” developed by BLS and based on the
worklife experience of all males, are applicable to
general aviation and government pilots in comparable
age groups under 60 years of age.37
The development of estimates of general aviation and
government pilot losses due to retirements and deaths
involved two major procedures. First, the distribution of
pilots by current age was based on the special tabulation
prepared from FAA aeromedical records. All pilots
reaching age 65 during either of the two projection
periods (1968-72 and 1973-77) were counted as losses to
employment. Next, estimates were made of the number
of pilots who will not reach age 65 by 1977, but who
will leave the work force due to retirement or death, by
applying BLS 5-year age specific separation rates to
comparable pilot age distribution intervals. To carry out
35
Early retirements are not identified separately for those this procedure, it was necessary to estimate the mid­
pilots currently over 50 years o f age. Consequently, die resulting
points of employment requirements in each projection
estimates o f losses may be somewhat understated for the first
period (1968-72 and 1973-77) through interpolation.38
5-year period and overstated for the second 5-year period.
Furthermore, the estimates include a small number o f pilot
The mid-point employment estimates then were distrib­
losses for reasons other than retirement or death, such as
uted
among the age groups using the current age
promotion or transfer to another industry o f employment.
distribution
obtained from the FAA aeromedical rec­
36Air Transport Association o f America, unpublished survey,
June 1966, dated January 1967.
ords. Finally, the BLS 5-year age specific separation
37 For a full discussion o f the development and use o f BLS
rates were applied to employment in each age interval.
separation rates, including their limitations, see Tomorrow's
(See tables 33 and 34.) Total replacement needs then
Manpower Needs, National M anpower Projections and a Guide
were determined by summing estimated losses for all age
to Their Use as a Tool in Developing State and Area Manpower
Projections (BLS Bulletin 1606, Volume I, “Developing Area
groups in each period, 1968-72 and 1973-77. Within
Manpower Projections”) p. 47.
general aviation, estimates of deaths and retirements
38
The mid-point o f each projection period was used to
were
established for each flying activity by distributing
account for the retirement or death o f entrants into the
occupation during the next decade.
losses for each projection period among the separate




35

Table 33. Procedure for estimating general aviation pilot retirement and death losses,
1968-72 and 1973-77
Estimated distribution
of employment
Age group

Percent
distribution
of pilots

(1)
Total . . . .
1 6 - 1 9 ................
20-24 ................
25-29 ...............
30-34 ...............
35-44 ...............
45-54 ................
55-59 ................
60 and over . .

Mid-point
1968-72
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 3)

Mid-point
1973-77
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 4)

(2)

(3)

(4)

100.0

32,094

47,446

58
1,155
2,975
4,644
12,690
8,665
1,191
716

85
1,708
4,398
6,865
18,760
12,810
1,760
1,058

.18
3.60
9.27
14.47
39.54
27.00
3.71
2.23

5-Year age
specific
separation
rates for
males

(5)

.00762
.00882
.00903
.01485
.02917
.09162
.19614
U/>

Deaths and retirements

Total
1968-77
(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72
(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77
(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

5,502

2,220

3,282

1
25
67
171
917
1,968
579
1,774

0
10
27
69
370
794
234
716

1
15
40
102
547
1,174
345
1,058

1 / a II pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods were counted as losses to employment.
NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: Percent distribution of pilots—based on FAA aeromedical records. Five-year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates
based on the work life experience of all male workers.

Table 34. Procedure for estimating government pilot retirement and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77
Estimated distribution
of employment
Age group

Percent
distribution
of pilots

(1)
Total . . . .
1 6 -1 9 ................
20-24 ................
25-29 ...............
30-34 ................
35-44 ................
45-54 ................
55-59 ................
60 and over '. .

Mid-point
1968-72
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 3)

Mid-point
1973-77
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 4)

(2)

(3)

(4)

100.0

2,210

2,671

4
80
205
320
874
597
82
49

5
96
248
386
1,056
721
99
60

.18
3.60
9.27
14.47
39.54
27.00
3.71
2.23

5-Year age
specific
separation
rates for
males

(5)

.00762
.00882
.00903
.01485
.02917
.09162
.19614
d /)

Deaths and retirements

Total
1968-77
(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72
(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77
(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

337

153

185

0
1
4
11
56
121
35
109

0
1
2
5
25
55
16
49

0
1
2
6
31
66
19
60

J / a II pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods were counted as losses to employment.
NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: Percent distribution of pilots—based on FAA aeromedical records. Five-year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates
based on the work life experience of all male workers.

36




Table 35. Estimated general aviation pilot retirements and deaths, by type of
flying, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Estimated percent
distribution of employment

Retirement and deaths

Type of flying
Mid-point
1968-72

Mid-point
1973-77

Total

1968-72

1973-77

T o t a l ...........................................................

100.0

100.0

5,502

2,200

3,282

Executive transportation .........................................
A ir-ta xi.........................................................................
Aerial application.......................................................
I ndustrial/special...................................
Instructional.............................................................
Other ............................................................................

48.2
26.5
5.4
5.2
12.9
1.8

50.1
28.1
4.3
4.1
11.9
1.6

2,713
1,510
260
251
676
92

1,070
589
119
116
286
40

1,@43
921
141
135
390
52

S O U R C E : Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 36. Procedure for estimating U.S. air carrier mechanic retirement and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Age group

Percent
distribution
of airplane
mechanics

(1)
Total . . . .
1 4 - 1 9 ...............
20-24 ................
25-29 ...............
30-34 ............
35-44 ...............
45-54 ...............
55-59 ...............
60-64 ...............
65 and over . .

Estimated distribution
of employment
Mid-point
1968-72
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 3)

Mid-point
1973-77
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 4)

(2)

(3)

(4)

100.0

56,500

65,500

424
4,028
9,351
8,859
19,939
9,724
2,503
1,209
475

491
4,670
10,840
10,270
23,115
11,273
2,902
1,402
550

.75
7.13
16.55
15.68
35.29
17.21
4.43
2.14
.84

Deaths and retirements

5-Year age
specific
separation
rates for
males

1968-77
(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72
(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77
(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

6,663

3,086

3,577

7
77
182
285
1,256
1,924
1,060
1,346
526

3
36
84
132
582
891
491
623
244

4
41
98
153
674
1,033
569
723
282

.00762
.00882
.00903
.01485
.02917
.09162
.19614
.51542
.51273

NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: Percent distribution of mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960. Subject reports. Occupational Characteristics, final report
PC (2)-7A. (U.S. Bureau of the Census), table 6, p. 75. 5-Year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates based on the work life
experience of all male workers.




37

Table 37. Procedure for estimating general aviation mechanic retirement and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77
Estimated distribution
of employment
Age group

Percent
distribution
of airplane
mechanics

(1)
Total . . . .

Mid-point
1968-72
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 3)

Mid-point
1973-77
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 4)

(2)

(3)

(4)

100.0

61,270

82,490

460
4,369
10,140
9,607
21,622
10,545
‘2,714
1,311
515

619
5,882
13,652
12,934
29,111
14,197
3,654
1,765
693

.75
7.13
16.55
15.68
35.29
17.21
4.43
2.14
.84

1 4 -1 9 ................
20-24 ................
25-29 ................
30-34 ................
35-44 ................
45-54 ................
55-59 ................
60-64 ................
65 and over . .

Retirements and deaths

5-Year age
specific
separation
rates for
males

1968-77
(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72
(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77
(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

7,850

3,347

4,503

9
91
215
335
1,480
2,267
1,249
1,585
619

4
39
92
143
631
966
532
676
264

5
52
123
192
849
1,301
717
909
355

.00762
.00882
.00903
.01485
.02917
.09162
.19614
.51542
.51273

taoTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: Percent distribution of airplane mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960, op. cit., table 6, p. 75. 5-Year age specific separa­
tion rates for males—Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers.

Table 38. Procedure for estimating government mechanic retirements and death losses,
1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77
Estimated distribution
of employment
Age group

Percent
distribution
of airplane
mechanics

(1)
Total . . . .
1 4 -1 9 ................
20-24 ................
25-29 ...............
30-34 ................
35-44 ................
45-54 ................
55-59 ................
60-64 ................
65 and over . .

Mid-point
1968-72
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 3)

Mid-point
1973-77
(Col. 2 x total
of Col. 4)

(2)

(3)

(4)

100.0

1,100

1,100

8
78
182
172
388
189
49
24
9

8
78
182
172
388
189
49
24
9

.75
7.13
16.55
15.68
35.29
17.21
4.43
2.14
.84

Retirements and deaths

5-Year age
specific
separation
rates for
males

1968-77
(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72
(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77
(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

122

61

61

0
2
4
6
22
34
20
24
10

0
1
2
3
11
17
10
12
5

0
1
2
3
11
17
10
12
5

.00762
.00882
.00903
.01485
.02917
.09162
.19614
.51542
.51273

NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: Percent distribution of airplane mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960, op. cit., table 6, p. 75. 5-year age specific separation
rates for males—Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers.

38




U.S. air carrier , general avia tio n , an d g o ve rn m en t
m echanic rep la cem en t needs. A single method was

5-year age specific separation ratios were applied to
employment in each age interval. Total replacement
needs were derived by summing estimated losses for all
age groups in each projection period. Tables 36-38 sho>*
the steps followed and the resulting death and retire­
ment estimates for each sector of civil aviation.

followed to estimate retirement and death losses for
mechanics in each sector of civil aviation—air carriers,
general aviation, and government. The procedure was as
follows: First, estimated employment requirements at
the mid-point of each projection period (1968-1972 and
1973-1977) were made through interpolation.39 Next,
employment at each mid-point then was distributed by
age group using the age distribution reported in the 1960
decennial Census of Population.40 Finally, the BLS

39 See footnote 38, p. 35.
40U.S. Census o f Population: 1960. Subject Reports. Oc­
cupational Characteristics, Final Report PC (2>7A . (U.S. Bureau
o f the Census), table 6, p. 71. This procedure assumes that the
age distribution o f mechanics remains constant during the
1960-77 period. A comparison o f the 1950 and 1960 Census
data indicates that the age structure shifted upward during the
1950’s. However, this trend may not continue during the 1960’s
and 1970’s because o f the large number o f young workers
entering the labor force during these decades.

general aviation flying activities on the basis of projected
pilot employment requirements at the mid-point in each
projection period. (See table 35.)




39
☆ U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1970 O - 3«8-312







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