The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MANPOWER ADM IN ISTR A TIO N U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR W X 31 Pilots and Mechanics in Civil Aviation ^B B V -V V A STUDY OF MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS Dayton & Montgomery Co. Public Library AUG 5 1970 d o c u m e n t co llectio n BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS MANPOWER ADMINISTRATION Malcolm R. Lovell, Administrator U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR George P. Shultz, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Geoffrey H. Moore, Commissioner Pilots and Mechanics in Civil Aviation laev-yy A S TU D Y O F M A N P O W E R R E Q U IR E M E N T S Pant I, Current Situation and the Short-Range Outlook [Manpower Administration) Part 11, Long-Range Manpower Requirements [Bureau of Labor S tatistics) 19*70 [BLS B ulletin 1655) For sale by the Superintendent o f Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402 —Price $1 Preface As a result of the unprecedented expansion in civil aviation during the past few years and the prospect of continuing growth in the 1970’s, considerable attention has been focused recently on the current and future supply-demand situation for trained aviation manpower. In recognition of the need for up-to-date comprehensive information on the manpower aspects of the civil aviation industry, the Department of Labor undertook this study designed to appraise current and future requirements and resources for pilots and mechanics in civil aviation. The study was done at the request and with the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Defense—the two Federal agencies most concerned with manpower developments in civil aviation. The study was conducted in two parts: Part I, which was prepared under the direction of the United States Training and Employment Service (USTES) of the Department of Labor’s Manpower Administration presents an analysis of current and short-range requirements and resources for pilots and mechanics in each of the principal sectors of civil aviation—both in the airlines and general aviation categories. This analysis is based on a special survey of employers in these industry groups, conducted by USTES in cooperation with affiliated State employment security agencies. Part II, conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), presents projections of long-range manpower requirements, also by principal sectors of civil aviation, and the methods used to derive these projections. The Department of Labor is grateful for the assistance and cooperation of the airlines, firms in general aviation, aviation schools, aircraft manufacturers, trade associations trade unions, government agencies and others who cooperated generously in providing information. We especially would like to acknowledge the cooperation of the Air Transport Association of America, which encouraged all its members in advance to complete and return the questionnaires in a survey of firms in the various sectors of civil aviation. The work of the General Aviation District Offices of the FAA in following up on the nonresponding firms in the air taxi, aerial applicator, aircraft repair stations, and flight and ground schools segments of general aviation, was also very much appreciated. The analysis of the data in the USTES portion of the study was prepared by Edward D. Hollander and Eleanor F. Silverman of the staff of Robert R. Nathan Associates Inc., under contract with the U.S. Department of Labor. The planning and preparation for the USTES-State employment security agency survey of employers in the civil aviation industry and the assembly of the survey data for analysis were by Robert L. Miller under the supervision of Harold Kuptzin, Chief, Division of Job Market Analysis in the USTES. The BLS portion of the study was prepared by Richard E. Dempsey, assisted by Kevin Kasunic, LaVerne Lang, and David P. Lafayette. Jerry Kursban assisted in the linear regression analysis used to project manpower requirements. The BLS portion was conducted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Russel B. Flanders, Chief. in Introduction The growth of civil aviation during the mid-1960’s has been phenomenal—in terms of all major measurements of business activity: revenue, passenger traffic, air cargo carried and size of employment. Revenue passenger miles (including domestic and international) during 1968 passed the 100 billion mark—more than 3 times the record of a decade previous.1 According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the 152 million passengers carried in 1968 nearly tripled the number 10 years earlier. By 1980, FAA figures indicate, U.S. airlines are expected to fly a total of 379 billion revenue passenger-miles and carry 470 million passengers in scheduled domestic and international service. The demand for transportation of cargo by air has also increased sharply in recent years—topping 4.1 billion cargo-ton miles in 1968.2 By 1970, an all-cargo plane capable of carrying nearly 3 times as much freight as today’s largest cargo aircraft will be entering airline fleets. At the same time, there has been a strong uptrend in all phases of business flying (executive transportation) and other types of general aviation activity, and the outlook for continued growth in the next decade is extremely favorable. The number of active general aviation aircraft rose from 85,000 in 1964 to 114,000 in 1968.3 The FAA forecast is that the number of these aircraft will nearly double by 1980. In 1962, the certificated route air carriers employed 17,971 pilots, copilots, flight engineers and navigators. By 1967 this number had reached 30,956.4 During this same period, the number of mechanics employed by these carriers moved up from 34,925 to 50,016.4 The overall expansion of civil aviation activity, coupled with the pending introduction of jumbo and stretched jet transport and new shorthaul aircraft for local service, are expected to result in a further increase in the annual requirements for pilots, mechanics, and other ground service personnel. The contribution of military training to commercial aviation manpower has always been highly significant. According to a survey conducted by the Air Transport Association in early 1967,5 two-thirds of all pilots hired during 1966 and two-thirds of those employed at the time of the survey had their principal training in the military services. Military training for pilots, however, is today but a fraction of what it was during World War II and considerably below the peak reached during the Korean conflict. Projections made as recently as 1964 with respect to manpower needs for pilots and mechanics in 1970 have already been greatly surpassed. The estimates erred on the low side mainly because while increases in productivity due to new equipment were foreseen, no one then anticipated the tremendous growth in passenger miles, hours flown, and the number of aircraft in use which has occurred in the past few years. The study by the U.S. Training and Employment Service (USTES) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) represented a two-pronged approach to manpower analysis as indicated by the different procedures and responsibilities of each. Most of the information for the USTES portion of the study was obtained through a sample survey of firms in the various segments of civil aviation. The questionnaire for the survey was developed with the assistance and cooperation of FAA and DOD. The USTES portion covers the current situation and the short-range growth requirements (to March 1970) for pilots and mechanics, training facilities for these occupations and their potential output, age of employees, and information on pilots with respect to ratings, hours flown, and certification to fly fixed-wing planes and/or helicopters. v The BLS long-range projections of pilot and mechanic requirements through 1972 and 1977, were based on an in-depth analysis of historical trends of the factors affecting manpower requirements in the various sectors of civil aviation. The basic data used in developing estimates and projections of manpower requirements came from FAA, including forecasts of future aviation activity. Information on manpower utilization and expected developments in civil aviation, including the impact of technology on manpower requirements, were analyzed and incorporated. Much of the information was developed through discussions with and data obtained from civil aviation officials representing management, labor and government. The coverage of the USTES and BLS portions of the study also differ in some other respects. The USTES portion covers civilian pilots and mechanics employed by the Army, Navy, and Air Force and the nonmilitary Federal agencies; the BLS portion excludes those civilian pilots and mechanics employed in the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The USTES portion includes in general aviation the pilots and mechanics employed by State and local governments; the BLS portion includes these workers in the government sector. 1 A viation Forecasts, Fiscal years 1969-80, Federal Aviation Administration, January 1969. *1969 A ir Transport Facts and Figures, Air Transport Association o f America. 3A viation Forecast, op. cit. 41968 A ir Transport Facts and Figures, Air Transport Association o f America. 5Scheduled Airline Industry P ilot Requirem ents, Report by Air Transport Association, February 1967. vi Rant I Current Situation and the Short-Range Outlook Contents Page S u m m a ry ............................................................................................................................................ P il o t s ......................................................................................................................................... M ech an ics................................................................................................................................. Pilots and mechanics employed by the Department of D efen se......................................... 2 Chapter I. Pilots and mechanics ...................................................................................................... 3 Chapter II. P ilo ts ....................................................................................................................... Employment trends .......................................................... Air carrier pilots, by t y p e .............................................................................................. General aviation pilots, by industry s e c t o r ................................................................. Pilot certification to fly specified types of aircraft .................................................. Ratings held by p i l o t s .................................................................................................... Pilots age 50 years and over ........................................................................................ Hours flown by p i l o t s .................................................................................................... Pilot supply ............................................................................................................................. Adequacy of supply................................................................................................................... Pilot schools............................................................................................................................... Government a i d ......................................................................................................................... School graduates as source of s u p p ly ..................................................................................... On-the-job tra in in g ................................................................................................................... Conclusions................. 4 4 5 13 15 16 16 16 Chapter III. Mechanics ..................................................................................................................... Employment trends ............................................................................................................... Air carrier mechanics, by o c c u p a tio n ......................................................................... General aviation mechanics, by industry sector ........................................................ Mechanics age 50 and o v e r...................................................................................................... Mechanic supply ..................................................................................................................... Aircraft mechanic schools ........................................................................................... Government aid ............................................................................................................ School graduates as source of supply ......................................................................... Military trained m e c h a n ic s........................................................................................... On-the-job training ...................................................................................................... C o nclusions.............................................................................................................................. 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 24 25 26 27 28 Chapter IV. U.S. Department of Defense pilots and mechanics .................................................. Civilian p i l o t s ........................................................................................................................... Civilian mechanics .................................................................................................................. 31 31 31 1 1 1 6 6 8 9 11 11 12 Tables: 1. Pilots and mechanics: All civil aviation, including Department of Defense, employment trends, 1967-70 2. Pilots and mechanics: All civil aviation, including Department of Defense, percentage distribution of employment, 1967-70 .................................................. viii 3 3 Contents—Conti nued Tables—Continued Page 3. Pilots: Civil aviation, employment trends, all pilots, by industry division, 1967-70 . 4. Pilots: Civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry division, 1967-70 ...................................................................................................... 5. Pilots: Civil air carriers employment trends, by type of pilot, 1967-70 .................. 6 . Pilots: Civil air carriers, changes in employment over specified periods, by type of pilot, 1967-70 ............................................................................................................ 7. Pilots: Civil air carriers, percentage change in employment over specified period, by type of pilot, 1967-70 8 . Pilots: Civil air carriers, ratio of pilot/flight engineers to all pilots, 1967-70 ............ 9. Pilots: General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70 10. Pilots: General aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry sector, 1967-70 11. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 12. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and helicopter pilots, by industry division and sector, anticipated employment at peak 1970 13. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division, spring 1968 . . . 14. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and helicopter pilots, by industry division, anticipated employment at peak 1970 . . 15. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by highest rating held, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 ....................... 16. Pilots: All civil aviation, percentage distribution of airline transport rated and commercial rated pilots, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 ................. 17. Pilots: All civil aviation, employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial who also held instrument ratings, spring 1968 ............................................................... 18. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by highest rating held, by industry division, spring 1968 ............................................ 19. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 ...................................................................... 20. Pilots: All civil aviation, total and average annual hours flown by pilots, year ending April/May 1968 21. Pilots: Number of FAA-certificated flight and ground schools for pilots, by type of school, 1965-68 ......................................................................................................... 22. Pilots: FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating), January 1, 1968 23. Mechanics: All civil aviation, employment trends, all mechanics, by industry division, 1967-70 24. Mechanics: All civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry division, 1967-70 ....................................................................................... 25. Mechanics: Civil air carriers, employment trends, by type of mechanic, 1967-70 . . 26. Mechanics: General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70 .......................................................................................... IX 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 19 20 21 23 23 24 25 Contents—Conti nued Tables—Continued Page 27. Mechanics: General aviation, changes in employment, by industry sector, 1967-70 . 28. Mechanics: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed mechanics aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 ..................................................... 29. Mechanics: Number of FAA-certificated schools and approved programs (ratings) for mechanics, by type, 1966-69 ............................................................................ 30. Mechanics: FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating), 1966-69 31. U.S. Department of Defense pilots and mechanics: Civilian aviation, employment trends, by service, 1967-70 ............................................................................................ 26 27 28 31 Appendixes: A: Civil aviation, definitions of industry divisions and s e c to r s ......................................... B: Manpower Administration, U.S. Training and Employment Service questionnaires and instructions, including descriptions of occupations ............................................... C:USTES survey scope and methodology ................................................................................ x 33 35 48 Summary Pilots Of the nearly 67,000 pilots employed in civil aviation in the spring of 1968, 34,500 worked for air carriers, 31,800 were employed in general aviation activities, and about 550 were civilian employees of the Department of Defense. All three divisions of the industry planned to con tinue to expand their pilot work forces through 1970, although to varying degrees. The largest and most rapid growth was scheduled for general aviation, where em ployers contemplated reaching an estimated pilot em ployment level of 38,000 in spring 1970, about 11,000 above spring 1967.6 Air carriers expected to add only 4,300 during this 3-year period, an estimated prospective increase of only about 1,500 pilots a year. This would represent a considerable slowing down and leveling off in the sharp uptrend which characterized the carriers’ employment growth in the years from 1964 to 1967. Reported Department of Defense civilian pilot employ ment expansion needs were negligible. No shortage of pilots to meet the estimated short term growth requirements was experienced or antici pated by employers in the spring of 1968, with the possi ble exception of pilots with specialized skills and experi ence, such as agricultural pilots. Both major sources of pilot supply-those with military-training and those with civilian-training backgrounds—were being drawn upon. Civilian training facilities for pilots are adequate in number, highly elastic in response to increases in demand, and well dispersed geographically. Government aid to student pilots in the form of veteran’s benefits is exceptionally generous. All sectors of the industry provide on-the-job training. Of the approximately 34,500 pilots and copilots employed by civil air carriers in spring 1968, about 1,250 or 3.5 percent were flight instructors, according to estimates based on the U.S. Training and Employment Service (USTES) survey. In addition, about 4,000 pilots were engaged in providing instruction in flying at general aviation flight and ground schools. Both major divisions of the industry contemplated increases in their flight instructor employment and expected no difficulty in meeting their needs. Nearly a third of all pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructors, employed by route air carriers in spring 1968 were also qualified flight engineers, and no change in this proportion was contemplated during the period under review. More than 92 percent of all employed civil aviation pilots were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only. The proportion was about 97 percent for route airlines and 87 percent in general aviation, where the remainder were certified to fly helicopters only or both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. Some increase by peak 1970 in the proportions of fixed-wing pilots employed was expected in all sectors except industrial/special flying. Airline transport ratings were held by nearly 43 percent of all employed civil aviation pilots in the spring of 1968—about 49 percent of those on carriers and about 36 percent of those employed in general aviation. Nearly 87 percent of all employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial were also instrument-rated. About 11 percent of all employed pilots were 50 years of age or over in the spring of 1968. The proportion for route airlines, where the compulsory retirement age is 60, was 9.4 percent. For general aviation firms it was 12.6 percent. Approximately 32,355,000 flight hours were logged by professional civilian pilots in the year ending April/ May 1968, of which route airlines accounted for about half. Annual hours flown per pilot averaged 512 for the entire industry, with route airline pilots (excluding flight instructors) flying an average of 522, and all general aviation pilots combined, an average of 509 hours. There was wide variation among general aviation sectors in the average hours flown by pilots annually, ranging from 166 in industrial/special flying to 763 in air taxi operations. Mechanics Employment of civilian aircraft mechanics in the spring of 1968 totaled 144,000, more than twice the number of pilots. Air carriers employed 51,000; general 6 Expansion plans o f general aviation firms, particularlyaviation, which includes all independent repair stations, engaged 54,800; and 38,400 were civilian mechanics those in the executive transportation and air taxi sectors, may be adversely affected by the FAA’s new flight-rationing regulation employed by the Department of Defense. limiting IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) nonairline flying at five The carriers and general aviation firms expected to airfields serving Washington, New York, and Chicago. The rule continue to augment their mechanic work forces went into effect on June 1, 1969. 1 through 1970, but the Defense Department planned a small reduction. As in the case of pilots, the bulk of the increase was scheduled for general aviation with an estimated spring 1970 mechanic employment level of 62,800, more than 11,000 above spring 1967. Air carriers expected to raise their mechanic employment by only 6,000 to a total of 55,000 during this period. By 1970, Defense Department employment was expected to total several hundred below the 1967 level, after reaching a high of 39,500 in 1969, according to plans reported to the USTES in the spring of 1968. Many reports, from both general aviation firms and air carriers, indicated a rising and crucial need for mechanics skilled in certain occupational specialties. These included airplane electricians and electronic, radio, and instrument mechanics, as well as avionic technicians. The need for all-around airframe and engine mechanics appeared to be falling off, but remained at a substantial level. Job opportunities in general aviation were best for certificated airframe and powerplant (A&P) mechanics who could also function as pilots. About 15 percent of all aircraft mechanics employed in civil aviation, excluding the Department of Defense, in the spring of 1968, were 50 years of age or over, according to estimates based on the USTES survey of employers. The proportion was only about 12 percent for air carriers, but close to 17.5 percent in general aviation. There is no compulsory retirement age for aircraft mechanics. Some tightness in the supply of mechanics, particu larly of those with certain special technical skills, appeared to be developing in the spring of 1968. Half of the 28 labor areas surveyed by the USTES survey reported stringencies ranging from slight to critical. Employers complained of shortages of fully qualified and certificated airplane electricians, electronic and instrument mechanics, and radio and avionic technicians, as well as of airframe and engine mechanics. Aircraft mechanic schools are much less numerous and less well dispersed geographically than are training 2 facilities for pilots. Graduates of many of these schools, the great majority of which are public institutions at vocational high school or technical trade school levels, can qualify only as trainees or apprentices ready for on-the-job training. The same is true of most aircraft mechanics with military-service training backgrounds only. In contrast to the situation for pilots, no special VA benefits beyond the standard ones are available to veterans who might wish to study for aircraft mechanic jobs. While all sectors of the industry were providing on-the-job training in 1968, many employers felt that they would nevertheless probably be unable to meet all anticipated short-run growth and replacement needs in this way, especially for mechanics with highly developed specialized skills. Expansion of apprenticeship and other formal on-thejob training programs, planned sufficiently in advance of expected needs, might ease this problem in the future. More generous government student aid grants or benefits might encourage enrollment of veterans and others in the better equipped private schools and universities. Pilots and mechanics employed by the Department of Defense Very few civilian pilots—550 in all—but more than 38,000 civilian aircraft mechanics were employed by the Defense Department in 1968. The civilian mechanic work force, on the basis of plans existing in the summer of that year, was expected to drop by more than 2,000 between 1969 and 1970, almost entirely as a result of employment reductions contemplated by the Air Force. While the bulk of Defense Department civilian air craft mechanic employment is in the Air Force, the Navy accounted for a substantial proportion—about 14,600, or 38 percent—in 1968, and expected to add about 1,000 between 1968 and 1970. The Army, with 850 civilian aircraft mechanics, primarily helicopter mechanics, in 1968, contemplated an increase of about 200 . Chapter I. Pilots and Mechanics There are more than twice as many civilian mechanics as pilots employed in aviation activities,7 and mechanics greatly outnumber pilots in each of the three major divisions of the industry (table 1). Air carriers employed three mechanics for every two pilots in 1967. In general aviation, which includes all aircraft repair stations, the ratio of mechanics to pilots was even higher. All but a handful of the civilian aviation employees of the military services were mechanics. About 49,000, or 35.5 percent of all civilian aviation mechanics employed in 1967, worked for air carriers; about 51,500, or 37.3 percent, were in general aviation, mainly at repair stations; and the remainder, nearly 38.000, or more than 27 percent of the total, were civilian employees of the Department of Defense (table 2). At the 1970 peak of mechanic employment of 168,500, according to estimates based on employer anticipations, the air carriers will account for nearly 60.000, or 35.5 percent of the total, the same propor tion as in 1967. General aviation will account for more than 71,000, or about 42 percent, while Defense Department civilian mechanic employment' will drop to roughly 37,000, or 22 percent of the total. The distribution of civilian pilot employment is quite different from that of mechanics. Air carriers employ PILOTS AND MECHANICS Table. 1. A ll civil aviation, including Department o f Defense employment trends, 1967-70 Number employed Date Total Air carriers General aviation Dept, of Defense 1' Pilots-^ Spring of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 ............................................... 1969 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 60,670 66,860 71,700 76,020 33,100 34,500 36,000 37,400 27,000 31,800 35,100 38,000 570 560 600 620 Peak of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 66,580 71,220 82,220 34,900 36,300 39,400 31,100 34,300 42,200 580 620 620 Mechanics^/ Spring of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 ............................................... 1969 (est.) .................................... 1970 (est.) ................................... 138,200 144,200 152,900 155,100 49,000 51,000 53,000 55,000 51,500 54,800 60,400 62,800 37,700 38,400 39,500 37,300 Peak of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 150,000 157,900 168,500 53,300 55,400 59,800 58,000 62,500 71,400 38,700 40,000 37,300 ^ C iv ilia n A viatio n employees o nly. “ 'in clu d es pilots, copilots, p ilo t/flig h t engineers, and flig h t instructors. -In c lu d e s a ircraft mechanics and instructors only; excludes maintenance w orkers such as carpenters and electricians. S O U R C E : See appendix C. A i r C a r r ie r s — USTES survey data inflated to national totals and adjusted on basis o f relationship between F A A to tal em ploym ent and survey sample data fo r 1 9 6 7 and 1 9 6 8 . G e n e r a l A v i a t i o n — USTES survey data inflated to national totals on basis o f relationship between BLS em ploym ent estimates and survey sample data for 1 9 6 7 . N o t adjusted. D e p a r t m e n t o f D e f e n s e — National totals reported by A rm y , Navy, A ir Force. PILOTS AND MECHANICS Table 2. A ll civil aviation, including Department of Defense percentage distribution o f employm ent, 1967-70 Percentage distribution of employment Date Total Air carriers General aviation Dept, of Defense Pilots Spring of: — m r ............................................... 1968 ............................................ 196C (est.) ............................... 1970 (est.) ............................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 54.6 51.6 50.2 49.2 44.5 47.6 49.0 50.0 0.9 .8 .8 .8 Peak of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 (est.) .................................. 1970 ( e s t . ) .................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 52.4 51.0 47.9 46.7 48.2 51.3 .9 .9 .8 Mechanics Spring of: 1967 ............................................ 1968 ............................................... 1969 ( e s t . ) .................................. 1970 ( e s t . ) .................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 35.5 35.4 34.7 35.5 37.3 38.0 39.5 40.5 27.3 26.6 25.8 24.0 Peak of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 (est.) ............................... 1970 (est.) .................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 35.5 35.1 35.5 38.7 39.6 42.4 25.8 25.3 22.1 S O U R C E : Based on table 1. more pilots than does the general aviation division of the industry, and the Department of Defense employs very few. In the spring of 1967, about 33,000, or 54.6 percent of the total of nearly 60,700 employed pilots, worked for carriers, and 27,000 or 44.5 percent, for general aviation firms. However, these proportions were expected to be nearly reversed by 1970. According to estimates based on employers’ hiring plans as reported to the USTES survey in the spring of 1968, pilot employ ment at the peak of 1970 will total 82,200, of which 39,400 or 48 percent will be on air carriers, and 42,200 or more than 51 percent in general aviation. Defense Department civilian pilot employment was expected to increase very slightly by peak 1970, and to remain at less than 1 percent of total civilian pilot employment. The two major occupational groups under reviewcivilian pilots and mechanics—differ sharply in their job content and qualifications as well as their labor market situations. In the sections which follow, they are, therefore, considered separately. Moreover, the civilian pilots and mechanics employed by the Defense Depart ment are considered separately from those employed by the two other major components of the civil aviation industry—air carriers and general aviation. The divisions and sectors of the civil aviation industry are described in appendix A. 7 All civil aviation, including civilian em ployees o f the Department o f Defense. 3 Chapter II. Employment trends About 60,000 pilots8 were employed in civil avia tion9 in the spring of 1967. By the spring of 1968, about 6,200, or 10.3 percent, had been added. At that time, however, a slowing down in the rate of employ ment expansion over the following 2 years was contem plated. Spring 1969 pilot employment is estimated, on the basis of the USTES sample survey,10 at about 71,000, roughly 4,800 or 7.2 percent above spring 1968, and spring 1970 pilot employment at 75,400, about 4,300 or 6.0 percent above spring 1969 (tables 3 and 4). If the hiring schedules anticipated by employers in the spring of 1968 are realized, pilot employment will total an estimated 81,60c11 at the peak of 1970, about 15,600 or nearly 25 percent above the 1967 peak, and will represent an average increase of about 5,200 pilots a year for the 3-year period. Most of the contemplated increase is attributable to the expansion plans of the general aviation division of the industry. The air carriers’ pilot work force increased only about 1,400, or 4.5 percent, between 1967 and 1968. Similar annual increases of 1,400 to 1,500, or about 4.0 percent a year, in 1969 and 1970 are estimated. Peak 1970 employment of pilots on all civil air carriers is estimated at 39,400, about 13 percent above the peak of 1967, and would require the net addition of about 4,500 pilots (1,500 a year) over the 3-year period. All but a couple of hundred of these would be for certificated route carriers. PILOTS Table 3. Civil aviation, em ploym ent trends, all pilots, by industry division, 1967-70 Air carriers Date Total All Certificated route General aviation Number employed Spring of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 ...................... ................... 1969 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 60,100 66,300 71,100 75,400 33,100 34.500 36,000 37,400 31,100 32,500 33,900 35,300 27.000 31,800 35,100 38,000 Peak of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 66,000 70,600 81,600 34,900 36,300 39,400 32,800 34,200 37,100 31,100 34,300 42,200 Percentage distribution Spring of : 1967 ............................................... 1968 ............................................... 1969 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 55.1 52.0 50.6 49.6 51.7 49.0 47.7 46.8 44.9 48.0 49.4 50.4 Peak of: 1967 ............................................... 1968 (est.) .................................. 1970 (est.) .................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 52.9 51.4 48.3 49.7 48.4 45.5 47.1 48.6 51.7 SOURCE: See table 1. 4 Pilots Historical data on the employment of pilots and other flight personnel by certificated route air carriers indicate that the prospective annual increases of 1,400 to 1,500 a year for the 1967-70 period would represent both a sharp slow-down and a leveling out in the very rapid employment expansion which had been going on since 1964. As shown in the following tabulation, such an annual increase would be less than half the size of that which occurred between 1966 and 1967, and about a fourth of the 1965-66 increment of more than 5,800. On the other hand, it would greatly exceed the annual growth rate prevailing in the early 1960’s. Changes in em ploym ent o f pilots, copilots, flight engineers, and navigators b y certificated route air carriers1 Years 19601961- 6 2 1962- 63 19631964- 65 1965- 66 1966- 67 61 ................................................. 64 ........................................ 750 -125 340 1,240 2,420 5,835 3,150 1 FAA, Statistical H andbook o f A viation, and Air Trans port Association o f America, A ir Transport Facts and Figures. Since 1967,12 general aviation firms have been augmenting their pilot work forces at a much faster rate than the carriers, and are expected to continue to do so, according to estimates based on the USTES survey. Employing 27,000 pilots in the spring of 1967, they had added 4,800 (a 17.8-percent increase) by spring 1968, and planned to add an additional 3,300 (or 10.4 percent more) by the spring of 1969, and 2,900 (or 8.3 percent more) between 1969 and 1970, to bring their total pilot employment up to about 38,000, or 41 percent above spring 1967. Plans through peak 1970 called for an estimated pilot work force of more than 42,000, about 11,000 or nearly 36 percent above peak 1967, compared 8 The term “pilot” as used in this survey includes pilots, copilots, pilot/flight engineers, and flight instructors, unless otherwise specified. Each occupation is described in Appendix B. 9 Air carriers and general aviation, excluding civilian em ployees o f the Department o f Defense, who are considered in Section IV, but including nondefense government employees. 10 Manpower Administration, U.S. Training and Employ ment Service, April/May 1968, see Appendixes B and C. 11 This estimate was made before United Airlines was required, by union agreement, to have three pilots instead o f two on its two-engine Boeing 737’s. This will add 4 0 0 to pilot requirements. 12 Earlier figures are not available. with an estimated increase of 4,500 or 13 percent for air carriers. To reach this estimated peak 1970 employment level, general aviation firms would have to add an average of nearly 3,700 pilots a year during the 3-year period from peak 1967 to peak 1970. If all contemplated employment growth is realized, there will be a continued change in the distribution of pilot employment between the two major components of the civil aviation industry. By the spring of 1968, general aviation firms had already increased their share of total pilot employment13 to 48 percent from 45 percent in the previous spring. At the estimated peak 1970 employment level, this proportion would rise to nearly 52 percent, while the proportion for air carrier pilot employment would decline from 55 percent in 1967 to 48 percent. In summary, net 1967-70 requirements of the civil aviation industry for pilots, for purposes of growth only and not including replacements, are estimated at around 5,200 a year, on the basis of employer plans reported in spring 1968. Over the 3-year period, it is estimated that air carriers would require an average of roughly 1,500 pilots a year, and general aviation firms an average of about 3,700 pilots a year, to reach estimated peak 1970 staff levels. A ir carrier p ilo ts, b y ty p e . The USTES survey of spring 1968 provided a breakdown, for air carriers only, of pilot employment by type, from which it was possible to estimate the varying prospective employment trends during the 1967-70 period under review for: All pilots and copilots, including flight instructors; pilots and PILOTS Table 4. Civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry division, 1967-70 Air carriers Total Date All Certificated route General aviation Employment increases Spring of: 1967-68 ........................................ 1968-69 (est.) ............................ 1969-70 (est.) ............................ 1967-70 (est.) ............................ 6,200 4,800 4,300 15,300 1,400 1,500 1,400 4,300 1,400 1,400 1,400 4,200 4,800 3,300 2,900 11,000 Peak of: 1967-68 (est.) 1968-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) 4,600 11,000 15,600 1,400 3,100 4,500 1,400 2,900 4,300 3,200 7,900 11,100 ............................ ............................ ............................ Percentage increases Spring of: 1967-68 ........................................ 1968-69 (est.) ............................ 1969-70 (est.) ............................ 1967-70 (est.) ............................ 10.3 7.2 6.0 25.5 4.2 4.3 3.9 13.0 4.5 4.3 4.1 13.5 17.8 10.4 8.3 40.7 Peak of: 1967-68 (est.) 1968-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) 7.0 15.6 23.6 4.1 8.5 12.9 4.3 8.5 13.1 10.3 23.0 35.7 ............................ ............................ ............................ PILOTS T a b le 5. Civil air carriers em p lo ym e n t trends, by ty p e o f p ilo t, 1967-70 Num ber employed Pilots and copilots Date Including flight instructors Excluding flight instructors Flight instructors A ll air carriers Spring of: 1967 .................................................. 1968 .................................................. 1969 (est.) ..................................... 1970 (est.) ..................................... 3 3,1 00 3 4,5 00 3 6,0 00 3 7,4 00 3 1 ,9 1 0 33,2 55 3 4 ,7 0 0 3 6 ,0 5 0 1 ,190 1,245 1 ,300 1,350 Peak of: 1967 .................................................. 1968 (est.) ..................................... 1970 (est.) ..................................... 3 4 ,9 0 0 3 6 ,3 00 3 9 ,4 00 3 3,655 3 5,0 00 3 8,0 00 1,245 1 ,300 1 ,400 Certificated route air carriers only Spring of: T967- .................................................. 1968 .................................................. 1969 (est.) ..................................... 1970 (est.) ..................................... 3 1,1 00 3 2 ,5 0 0 3 3 ,9 0 0 3 5,3 00 2 9 ,9 8 0 3 1 ,3 3 0 3 2 ,6 8 0 3 4 ,0 3 0 1,120 1 ,170 1 ,220 1 ,270 Peak of: 1967 .................................................. 1968 (est.) ..................................... 1970 (est.) ..................................... 3 2 ,8 0 0 3 4 ,2 0 0 3 7 ,1 0 0 3 1 ,6 2 0 3 2 ,9 7 0 3 5 ,7 7 0 1 ,180 1,230 1 ,330 SOU RCE: Total em ploym ent as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data. copilots, excluding flight instructors; flight instructors; and pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructors, who are also flight engineers (tables 5, 6, 7, and 8). Of the 33,100 pilots and copilots employed by all civil air carriers in spring 1967, 1,190 (or 3.6 percent) were flight instructors. Estimates indicate that em ployers expected to add about 160 by the spring of 1970, and that peak 1970 flight instructor employment would be 155 above the peak of 1967. The expansion of flight instructor employment was expected to proceed at about the same rate as that for all other pilots as table 7 shows. Nearly a third (31 percent) of all pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructors, employed by route air carriers in spring 1968 were also qualified flight engi neers. The figures in table 8 reflect fairly accurately a cockpit manning pattern consisting of a crew of three pilots, of whom at least one is also a flight engineer. No change in the ratio of pilot/flight engineers (or second officers, as they are sometimes called) to all pilots was contemplated by route carriers throughout the 1967-70 period under review. Route airlines employed 9,420 pilot/engineers in the spring of 1967 and expected to add an estimated 1,230 by spring 1970. At the estimated peak of pilot employ13 Defense. Excluding civilian employees o f the Department o f S O U R C E : Based on table 3. 5 PILOTS Ta b le 6. C ivil air carriers, changes in e m p lo ym e nt over specified periods, b y ty p e o f p ilo t, 1967-70 Increases in number employed Pilots and copilots Date Including flight instructors Excluding flight instructors Flight instructors A ll air carriers Spring of: 1967-68 ............................................ 1968-69 (est.) .............................. 1969-70 (est.) .............................. 1967-70 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,500 1,400 4 ,3 0 0 1,345 1,445 1,350 4 ,1 4 0 55 55 50 160 Peak of: 1967-68 (est.) 1968-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) 1,400 3 ,1 0 0 4 ,5 0 0 1,345 3 ,0 0 0 4,3 4 5 55 100 155 .............................. .............................. .............................. Certificated route air carriers only Spring of: 1967-68 ............................................ 1968-69 (est.) .............................. 1969-70 (est.) .............................. 1967-70 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,400 1,400 4 ,2 0 0 1,350 1,350 1,350 4 ,0 5 0 50 50 50 150 Peak of: 1967-68 (est.) 1968-70 (^Tt) 1967-70 (est.) 1,400 2 ,9 0 0 4 ,3 0 0 1,350 2,8 0 0 4 ,1 5 0 50 100 150 .............................. .............................. .............................. 1967 and peak 1970 (table 10). Numerically, the greatest increases were scheduled for executive transpor tation, pilot schools, and air taxi operations, many of which also double as schools. Contemplated increases for other general aviation sectors, while relatively small in number, represented substantial proportional expansion. Industrial/special operators, for example, expected to add an estimated 660, for a more than 40-percent increase in pilot employment. The contemplated addi tion of roughly 150 to 550 pilots by peak 1970 in each of the other general aviation sectors would represent about a one-fourth increase in each pilot work force above peak 1967. Rough estimates of the average annual growth re quirement for pilots in each of the general aviation sectors, for the 3 peak years 1967-70, based on employers’ reports, indicate that about 2,500 of the estimated total demand of 3,700 a year would arise from the expansion plans of executive transportation and air taxi operations combined. The next largest requirement, 600 a year, would be for pilot instructors at schools. A summary tabulation follows: SOU RCE: Based on table 5. ment during 1970, a total of approximately 10,650 pilot/flight engineers, or 1,290 more than at peak 1967, would be employed. This would represent an average annual increase of about 400 over the 3-year period. Several major airlines reported that they engaged professional flight engineers or flight navigators who were not qualified pilots. G eneral aviation p ilo ts , b y in d u stry secto r. Nearly 44 percent of the estimated 31,800 professional pilots employed in the general aviation division of the civil aviation industry in 1968 were engaged in executive transportation activities (table 9). Air taxi operations accounted for about a fourth (24 percent) and instruc tional activities at pijot flight and ground schools for 13 percent. Firms engaged in aerial application, such as crop dusting, and in industrial/special activities, such as pipeline patrolling, each employed about 5 percent of all general aviation pilots. State and local government and nondefense Federal agency flying activities accounted for more than 2,000 pilots, or nearly 7 percent of the total. Repair stations engaged 650, or 2 percent of the estimated total, for checking out and testing aircraft. Sharp employment increases to peak 1970, assuming the availability of pilots for jobs in general aviation, were planned by all sectors. All general aviation firms com bined hoped to expand their pilot work forces by an estimated 11,000, or more than a third, between peak 6 General aviation industry sector E stim ated average annual requirem ent fo r contem plated expansion o f p ilo t em ploy men t, 196 7- 70 Executive tr a n sp o rta tio n .................................... Air t a x i s .................................................................... Flight and ground schools ................................. Industrial/special.................................................... Government (n o n m ilita r y )................................. Aerial application ................................................. Repair s t a t io n s ....................................................... Total .................................................... 1,300 1,200 600 220 190 160 60 3,730 Not all sectors, of course, would require the same kinds of pilots. As executive transportation and air taxi operators increase their use of larger and more sophisti cated aircraft, they will need more pilots trained on this kind of equipment. On the other hand, a good part of the demand in industrial/special work, for example, would be for helicopter pilots, and aerial application companies would need specialized pilots well-trained in agricultural flying activities. Pilot certification to fly specified types of aircraft Of the total of 66,260 pilots employed in the civil aviation industry in the spring of 1968, 61,255, or 92.4 percent, were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only; 815, or 1.2 percent, were certified to fly helicopters only; and 4,190, or 6.3 percent, were certified to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, according to estimates based on the USTES survey of employers (table 11). More than 97 percent of the pilots employed by air carriers had fixed-wing certification only, while the corresponding proportion for general aviation firms was about 87 percent, with 2.5 percent certified to fly helicopters only, and about 10 percent certified to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. There was considerable variation among the sectors of the general aviation division of the industry in the type of certification held by employed pilots. The propor tions of pilots with only fixed-wing certification ranged from around 90 percent in executive transportation, pilot schools, and nonmilitary government agencies, down to 40 percent in industrial/special activities, of which about 28 percent were certified to fly helicopters only, and 32 percent to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. In no other sector did helicopter-only certification bulk nearly so large, ranging from 0.7 percent in nonmilitary government to 3 percent in repair stations. However, in all other general aviation sectors, sizable proportions of all pilots (ranging from 7 to 12 percent) were certified to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. Asked to estimate the distribution of their antici pated peak 1970 employment as between fixed-wing and PILOTS T a b le 7. C iv il air carriers, percentage change in e m p lo y m e n t over sp ecified p erio d , b y ty p e o f p ilo t, 19 67-70 Percent change in em ploym ent Pilots and copilots Date Including flight instructors Excluding flight instructors Flight instructors A ll air carriers Spring of: 1967-68 ............................................ 1 968-69 (est.) ............................... 1 96 9-70 (est.) ............................... 1 96 7-70 (est.) ............................... 4 .2 4 .3 3.9 13.0 4 .2 4 .3 3.7 13.0 4 .6 4 .4 3.8 13.4 Peak of: 1 967-68 (est.) 1 9 6 8-70 (est.) 196 7-70 (est.) 4 .0 8 .5 12.9 4 .0 8 .6 12.9 4 .4 7.7 12.4 ............................... ............................... ............................... Certificated route air carriers only Spring of: 1 967-68 ............................................ 1 96 8-69 (est.) ............................... 1 96 9-70 (est.) ............................... 1 96 7-70 (est.) ............................... 4.5 4 .3 4.1 13.5 4.5 4 .3 4.1 13.5 4.5 4 .3 4.1 13.4 Peak of: 196 7-68 (est.) 1 9 6 8-70 (est.) 1 96 7-70 (est.) 4 .3 8 .5 13.1 4 .3 8 .5 13.1 4 .2 8.1 12.7 ............................... ........................ ............................... S O U R C E : Based on table 5. PILOTS T a b le 8. C iv il a ir carriers, ra tio o f p ilo t/ flig h t engineers to all p ilo ts, 19 67-70 Pilots and copilots, excl. flig h t instructorsDate To ta l . number Who are also flight engineers N um ber || Percent o f total A ll air carriers Spring of: 1967 ................................................... 1968 ................................................... 196 9 (est.) ...................................... 1 9 7 0 (est.) ...................................... 3 1 ,9 1 0 3 3 ,2 5 5 3 4 ,7 0 0 3 6 ,0 5 0 9 ,5 4 0 9 ,9 4 0 1 0 ,3 6 0 1 0,7 90 2 9 .9 2 9 .9 2 9.9 2 9 .9 Peak of: 1967 ................................................... 1968 (est.) ...................................... 1 97 0 (est.) ...................................... 3 3 ,6 5 5 3 5 .0 0 0 3 8 .0 0 0 1 0,0 40 1 0,4 60 1 1,3 50 2 9.8 2 9 .9 2 9 .9 Certificated route air carriers only Spring of: 1967 ................................................... 1968 ................................................... 196 9 (est.) ..................................... ..................................... 197 0 (est.) 2 9 ,9 8 0 3 1 ,3 3 0 3 2 ,6 8 0 3 4 ,0 3 0 9 ,4 2 0 9 ,8 1 5 1 0 ,2 30 1 0 ,6 50 3 1 .4 3 1 .3 3 1 .3 3 1 .3 Peak of: 1967 ................................................... 1968 (est.) ...................................... 1 9 7 0 (est.) ..................................... 3 1 ,6 2 0 3 2 ,9 7 0 3 5 ,7 7 0 9 ,9 2 0 1 0,3 30 1 1,2 10 3 1 .4 3 1 .3 3 1 .3 S O U R C E : Total em ploym ent as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data. helicopter pilots, civil aviation firms as a whole placed fixed-wing pilots at 95 percent of the prospective total and helicopter pilots at 5 percent (table 12). Route carriers, of which only a few are helicopter airlines, expected to have about 200 helicopter pilots out of an estimated total pilot employment of approximately 37,000. The employment of helicopter pilots in general aviation, on the other hand, was expected to total an estimated 4,000, or 9.5 percent of a prospective 42,000, at peak 1970. The executive transportation and air taxi sectors each anticipated having about 900 helicopter pilots on their payrolls, and industrial/special companies expected that about 1,500, or two-thirds, of their employed pilots would be qualified to fly helicopters, according to estimates based on the survey sample. More detailed breakdowns, by type of pilot as well as by type of certification, are available from the survey for air carriers only (tables 13 and 14). They indicate that, both in 1968 and at estimated prospective peak employ ment in 1970, there is virtually no difference between flight instructors and all other pilots in the distribution of employees by type of certification. In the spring of 1968, of 33,255 noninstructor pilots and copilots employed by air carriers, 97.3 percent were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only, 0.1 percent were certified to fly helicopters only, and 2.6 percent were certified to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The corre sponding proportions for flight instructors were almost 7 identical. By peak 1970, air carriers expected that 99.4 percent of their projected total noninstructor pilot complement would consist of fixed-wing pilots and that 0.6 percent would be helicopter pilots. The correspond ing proportions for instructors were, again, almost identical. Ratings held by pilots Airline transport ratings (ATR’s) were held by 43 percent of all employed civil aviation pilots in the spring of 1968, while for 56 percent the highest rating held was commercial (table 15). The proportion of pilots holding A T R ’s was considerably higher for carriers—49 percent—than for general aviation—about 36 percent. Conversely, about half of all air carrier pilots had ratings no higher than commercial. These were, presumably, functioning as copilots or second officers. The propor tion of commercial rating holders in general aviation was 62 percent, with 2 percent of the total having other ratings, mainly helicopter or instructor, as their highest. Variations among general aviation sectors in the proportion of employed pilots with ATR’s was ex tremely wide, ranging from 2 percent in aerial applica tion to 57.5 percent in executive transportation, a higher proportion than that reported for carriers, as might be expected where there is frequently only one pilot in the cockpit. Roughly 80-90 percent of pilots employed in air taxi, aerial application, industrial/special, and instruc tional activities held no more than a commercial certificate, as did 58 percent of nonmilitary government pilots. Viewed another way, as in table 16, about 60 percent of the 28,360 ATR’s employed in 1968 worked for civil air carriers, with more than 56 percent of the total employed by certificated route airlines. General aviation activities employed 40 percent of all employed ATR’s, with executive transportation accounting for 28 percent of the civil aviation total. Of the 37,250 employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial, 47 percent were employed by carriers of all types and about 44 percent by certificated route airlines. About 16 percent were engaged in the air taxi business, more than 15 percent in executive transporta- Pl LO T S Table 9. General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70 Date Total Executive transportation Air taxi Aerial application I ndustrial/ special Flight and ground schools Government^ Repair stations Number employed Spring of: 1967 .......................... 1968 .......................... 1969 (est.) ............... 1970 (est.) ............... 27,000 31,800 35,100 38,000 11,900 13,900 14,770 15,520 6,200 7,640 9,110 9,970 1,500 1,750 1,900 2,110 1,500 1,620 1,680 2,070 3,300 4,100 4,600 5,200 2,000 2,140 2,300 2,400 600 650 710 730 Peak of: 1967 .......................... 1968 (est.) ............... 1970 (est.) ................ 31,100 34,300 42,200 13,400 14,200 17,230 7,500 8,680 11,070 1,880 2,020 2,350 1,630 1,770 2,300 3,950 4,570 5,780 2,100 2,350 2,660 640 710 810 Percentage distribution Spring of: 1967 .......................... 1968 .......................... 1969 (est.) ............... 1970 (est.) ............... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 44.1 43.7 42.1 40.8 23.0 24.0 26.0 26.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.4 12.2 12.9 13.1 13.7 7.4 6.7 6.6 6.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 Peak of: 1967 ........................... 1968 (est.) ............... 1970 (est.) ............... 100.0 100.0 100.0 43.1 41.4 40.8 24.1 25.3 26.2 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.5 12.7 13.3 13.7 6.8 6.9 6.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 -^E xcluding D epartm ent of Defense. S O U R C E : See table 1. 8 PILOTS Table 10. General aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry sector, 1967-70 Date Total Executive transportation Air taxi Aerial application Industrial/ special Flight and ground schools Government-^ Repair stations Increase in number employed Spring of: 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1967-70 ..................... (est.) .... (est.) .... (est.) .... Peak of: 1967-68 (est.) 1968-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) .... .... .... 4,800 3,300 2,900 11,000 2,000 870 750 3,620 1,440 1,470 860 3,770 250 150 210 610 120 60 390 570 800 500 600 1,900 140 160 100 400 50 60 20 130 3,200 7,900 11,100 800 3,030 3,830 1,180 2,390 3,570 140 330 470 130 530 660 610 1,210 1,820 250 310 560 70 100 170 Percentage increase Spring of: 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1967-70 ..................... (est.) .... (est.) .... (est.) .... Peak of: 1967-68 (est.) 1968-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) .... .... .... 17.8 10.4 8. 3 40.7 16.8 6.3 5.1 30.4 23.2 19.2 9. 4 60.8 16.6 8.6 11.1 40.7 8.0 3.7 23.2 38.0 24.2 12.2 13.4 57.6 7.0 7.5 4.3 20.0 8.3 9.2 2.8 21.7 10.3 23.0 35.7 6.0 21.3 28.6 15.7 27.5 47.6 7.4 16.3 25.0 8.6 29.9 41.1 15.7 26.5 46.3 11.9 13.2 26.7 10.9 14.1 26.6 S O U R C E : Based on table 9. tion, 8.6 percent in instructional flying, and 3-4 percent in each of the other sectors of general aviation, except repair stations where the proportion was lower. All but a few of the 650 employed pilots whose highest rating was other than airline transport or commercial (mainly instructor or helicopter) were in general aviation, with 25 percent of the total in air taxi operations, about 22 percent in aerial application, 18.5 percent in executive transportation, and 14 percent in both flight and ground schools and nonmilitary govern ment. The USTES April/May 1968 survey of employers also gathered information on the number of employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial who also held instrument ratings. Estimates based on the survey sample are shown in table 17. According to these estimates, for all civil aviation activities combined, close to 32,300 pilots out of a total of 37,250 whose highest rating was commercial, or nearly 87 percent, also held instrument ratings. Virtually all carrier pilots whose highest rating was commercial, whether these are considered to include or exclude flight instructors, also held instrument ratings. The corresponding proportion for all general aviation pilots was 75 percent. It was 75 percent or more in each sector of general aviation except aerial applica tion and industrial/special where, presumably, an instru ment rating is less essential for the work performed. More detailed estimates, for air carriers only, in which the highest ratings held are related to the various types of pilots employed, are shown in table 18. From this it may be seen, for example, that an estimated 49 percent of the 31,330 pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructors, employed in the spring of 1968 by certifi cated route carriers held air transport ratings, whereas for 51 percent the highest rating held was commercial. The distribution of flight instructor employment by type of rating held was virtually the same as that for all other pilots. Of the 31,330 route carrier pilots and copilots who were not flight instructors, about 9,800 were pilot/flight engineers (second officers). Nearly half of these held air transport ratings. Pilots age 50 years and over The age of employed pilots is one of the significant factors to be considered in estimating the probable level of new pilot hires to be required as the result of attrition 9 through retirement or death. Most air carrier pilots aged 50 and over are approaching retirement age, since Federal Aviation Administration Regulation 121, Part 383, stipulates that the use of the services of pilots who have reached their 60th birthday is not permitted on scheduled air carriers. Moreover, most airline pilots have the option to choose early retirement at age 55. No age limitations are imposed by the Federal Government on pilots employed by nonscheduled air carriers or by general aviation firms. It is estimated that about 11 percent of all pilots employed in the civil aviation industry in the spring of 1968 were 50 years of age or over (table 19). The preference of air carriers, as distinguished from the general aviation division of the industry, for younger pilots, as well as the effect of the airlines’ early retirement provisions, are reflected in the figures. Only 9.4 percent of carrier pilots were in the 50-years-or-over category, compared with 12.6 percent in general avia tion. Among the general aviation industry sectors, the use of older pilots ranged from 7.4 percent of all those employed in industrial/special flying to 18.7 percent in nonmilitary government. Of the 7,265 employed pilots aged 50 years and over in the spring of 1968, about 3,260 were employed by carriers and about 4,000 were in general aviation. Carriers accounted for 52 percent of all the pilots employed in civil aviation in the spring of 1968, but for only about 45 percent of those aged 50 and over. Route carriers, with 49 percent of all pilots, employed 42 percent of the older ones. General aviation employed 48 percent of all civil aviation pilots, but 55 percent of PILOTS Table 11. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution* o f employed pilots certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 Industry division/sector All pilots and copilots1' Certified to fly Fixed-wing only Helicopter only Fixed-wing and helicopter Number employed Grand total........................................................................................... 66,260 61,255 815 4,190 Civil air carriers, to ta l......................................................................... Certificated ro u te ......................................................................... O th e rs ........................................................................................... 34,500 32,500 2,000 33,555 31,610 1,945 35 35 (2/) 910 855 55 General aviation, t o t a l ...................................................................... Executive transportation.............................................................. Air t a x i............................. ............................................................. Aerial application......................................................................... 1ndustrial/special......................................................................... Flight and ground schools........................................................... Government.................................................................................. Repair stations ............................................................................ 31,760 13,880 7,640 1,750 1,620 4,080 2,140 650 27,700 12,680 6,660 1,510 640 3,680 1,980 550 780 140 80 30 460 40 15 20 3,280 1,060 900 210 520 360 145 80 Percentage distribution .............................................................. ........................ 100.0 92.4 1.2 6.3 Civil air carriers, to ta l......................................................................... Certificated ro u te .......................................................................... O th e rs ........................................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 97.3 97.3 97.3 0.1 0.1 - 2.6 2.6 2.8 General aviation, t o t a l ...................................................................... Executive transportation.............................................................. Air t a x i............................. ............................................................. Aerial application......................................................................... Industrial/special......................................................................... Flight and ground schools........................................................... Government.................................................................................. Repair stations............................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.2 91.4 87.2 86.3 39.5 90.2 92.5 84.6 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.7 28.4 1.0 0.7 3.1 10.3 7.6 11.8 12.0 32.1 8.8 6.8 12.3 Grand total ^ In c lu d in g flight instructors. -'F e w e r than 5. S O U R C E : Total em ploym ent as shown In tables 3 and 9 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data. 10 those in the 50-years-and-over age bracket. A fourth of the 7,265 older civil pilots were engaged in executive transportation and about an eighth in air taxi activities. PILOTS Table 12. All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and helicopter pilots, by industry division and sector, anticipated employment at peak 1970 A n tic ip a te d e m p lo y m e n t a t peak 1 9 7 0 Hours flown by pilots In d u s try d ivisio n /secto r Pilots and copilots employed in the civil aviation industry flew an estimated total of 32,355,000 hours in the year ending April/May 1968 (see table 20). For the entire industry combined, this amounted to an average of 512 flight hours per pilot. Air carriers accounted for 17.4 million, or about 54 percent, of the estimated total number of hours flown. Approximately 16.4 million hours, or just half of the grand total, were flown by route airline pilots, whereas nearly 15 million hours, or 46 percent of the grand total, were logged by general aviation pilots. Executive trans portation and air taxi pilots combined flew more than 10 million hours, nearly a third of the total for all civil aviation. Pilots and copilots employed by certificated route air carriers, where maximum monthly flight time per pilot is regulated by both the FAA and union agreements, flew, on the average, 515 hours during the year. If flight instructors are eliminated from the total for route carriers, the average for the remaining pilots rises to 522 hours. Flight instructors employed by route carriers flew an average of only 344 hours, indicating perhaps that much of the on-the-job flight instruction was given on the ground. All general aviation pilots combined averaged 509 flight hours during the year, but there was extremely wide variation among the component sectors of the industry division. Average utilization of pilot time appeared to be much higher in the air taxi industry (763 hours flown per pilot) and in the flying schools (708 hours), than in executive transportation (407 hours), or in any of the other general aviation sectors, in which average annual hours flown ranged downward to 208 in nondefense government activities and 166 in industrial/ special operations. Only in air taxi and flying school activities and at repair stations did the average annual hours flown exceed the average for pilots and copilots employed by route carriers. But the excess, for the first two of these sectors, was very large—40 to 50 percent. Pilot supply Evaluation of the supply of pilots available to the civil aviation industry may be considered from various viewpoints—in terms of supply available to each of the two major divisions of the industry (airlines and general aviation), in terms of the output of the two major A ll pilo ts and c o p ilo ts ^ F ixe d -w in g pilo ts H e lic o p te r p ilo ts N u m b e r o f em ployees G ran d t o t a l .................................................. 8 1 ,6 0 0 7 7 ,3 8 0 4 ,2 1 5 C ivil air carriers, t o t a l ............................ C e rtific a te d r o u t e ............................. O t h e r s .................................................. 3 9 ,4 0 0 3 7 ,1 0 0 2 ,3 0 0 3 9 ,1 8 0 3 6 ,9 1 0 2 ,2 7 0 215 205 10 G eneral a via tio n , t o t a l ......................... E xe c u tive tr a n s p o r ta tio n .............. A ir t a x i .................................................. A e rial a p p lic a t io n ............................ In d u s tr ia l/s p e c ia l............................ 4 2 ,2 0 0 1 7 ,2 3 0 1 1 ,0 7 0 2 ,3 5 0 2 ,3 0 0 5 ,7 8 0 3 8 ,2 0 0 1 6 ,3 5 0 1 0 ,1 6 0 2 ,1 2 0 760 5 ,5 8 0 2 ,5 2 0 710 4 ,0 0 0 880 910 230 1 ,5 4 0 200 140 100 F lig h t and ground schools . . . . G o v e r n m e n t ....................................... R ep air s ta tio n s .................................... 2 ,6 6 0 810 Percentage d istrib u tio n G ran d t o t a l .............................................. 1 0 0 .0 9 4 .8 5 .2 Civil air carriers, t o t a l ............................ C e rtific a te d r o u t e ......................... O t h e r s .............................................. 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 9 9 .4 9 9 .5 9 8 .7 0 .5 0 .6 0 .4 General aviatio n t o t a l ............................ 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 9 0 .5 9 .5 5.1 8 .2 9 .8 6 7 .0 3 .5 5 .3 1 2 .3 E xe c u tive tr a n s p o r ta tio n .............. A ir t a x i .................................................. A e rial a p p lic a t io n ............................. In d u s tr ia l/s p e c ia l............................ F lig h t and ground schools . . . . G o v e r n m e n t ....................................... R epair s ta tio n s .................................... 9 4 .9 9 1 .8 9 0 .2 3 3 .0 9 6 .5 9 4 .7 8 7 .7 ^ In c lu d in g flig h t instructors. S O U R C E : T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t as shown in tables 3 and 9 d is trib u te d on basis o f U S T E S survey sam ple data. sources of supply (civilian and military), or in terms of the type of pilot involved (sophisticated aircraft, light aircraft, helicopter, etc.). Supply in the context of each of these approaches is discussed briefly below. The airlines prefer to hire military trained, young pilots (under 35 years of age) who have had considerable experience in flying heavy aircraft and, secondarily, apt, civilian-trained, young, commercial-rated pilots who have logged at least 1,000 flight hours, preferably on heavy equipment. Hiring specifications in regard to physical condition and educational achievement are very high. Because of union seniority rules, both types of recruit are started at the bottom of the promotional ladder, no matter what their previous experience, and are assigned, at the beginning, to the lightest, cheapest, and least sophisticated aircraft. Reportedly, training (largely orientation) of these types of pilots for these entry jobs, which is provided by the airlines, requires only a few months or less, whether the pilot has a military or a civilian background. General aviation sectors with relatively high propor tions of heavy and sophisticated equipment, such as executive transport and air taxis, also look to the military and to qualified civilian-trained pilots, but are 11 PILOTS Table 13. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division, spring 1968 Certified to fly 1ndustry division Total pilots Fixed-wing only Helicopter only Fixed-wing and helicopter Number employed All civil air carriers All pilots and co p ilo ts ........................................ Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . Flight instructors................................................ 34,500 33,255 1,245 33,555 32,345 1,210 35 35 (1/) 910 875 35 Certificated route carriers All pilots and c o p ilo ts ........................................ Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . Flight instructors................................................ 32,500 31,330 1,170 31,610 30,470 1,140 35 35 (1/) 855 825 30 Percentage distribution All civil air carriers All pilots and co p ilo ts ........................................ Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . Flight instructors................................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 97.3 97.3 97.2 0.1 0.1 - 2.6 2.6 2.8 Certificated route carriers All pilots and c o p ilo ts ......................... .. Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . Flight instructors................................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 97.3 97.3 97.4 0.1 0.1 — 2.6 2.6 2.6 -^Fewer than 5. SOURCE: Total employment as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data. willing to hire older men, and hiring specifications are lower. Sectors using light equipment hire any qualified pilot, particularly if he is trained in a desired specialty such as, for example, crop dusting. Viewed another way, young pilots released from the military services and young civilian commercial pilots with heavy aircraft experience are the major sources of supply for the airlines. Older military-trained pilots and civilian commercial pilots with adequate or specialized training, not necessarily on heavy equipment, are the major sources for general aviation. In terms of pilot type, those with training, experi ence, and skill in flying heavy equipment come primarily from the military services; those with training and skill in flying light equipment, or in providing specialized flying services of some kind, come either from the older military or from civilian training facilities. Helicopter pilots, for both airlines and general aviation, are an exception; the military will continue to provide almost 12 all of the helicopter pilots for civil aviation, as it always has. Flight instructors at schools are, for the most part, a transient civilian-trained group seeking to log a sufficient number of flying hours for possible advancement to jobs on airlines or elsewhere in general aviation. They are readily available. A d e q u a c y o f su pply. The relationship o f probable pilot supply to prospective demand may be viewed from the same three viewpoints. The overall supply is and promises to be quite adequate, at least in the short run. No airline reported a scarcity of qualified pilot recruits in the USTES survey. General aviation companies, as a whole, were similarly having no trouble hiring. Some, however, complained of retention problems. They were losing their company-trained pilots to the airlines or to government jobs as soon as they had acquired the requisite number of flight-hours and training. Others could not provide their pilots with full-time, steady employment and, consequently, competitive annual earnings. Some solved this problem by using their pilots as mechanics or to give flying instruction, as in many small taxi operations, in slack periods. Most general aviation companies, however, were finding it possible to hire and retain a sufficient number of qualified pilots who did not meet the high personnel standards of the airlines and were, perforce, content with general aviation jobs. A few, notably some of those engaged in aerial application activities such as crop dusting, were encoun tering a stringency in the supply of pilots with the necessary special qualifications for their particular type of work. The supply of pilots with the desired background of military training appeared to be adequate for current and short-range future needs. Similarly, civilian training facilities appeared to be generating a sufficient number of professional pilots to keep the civil aviation pipeline filled with prospective recruits. P ilo t schools . Civilian pilot training facilities, except on heavy aircraft, are numerous and widely available. As of January 1, 1968, more than 1,700 flight and ground schools offered FAA-approved instruction programs to potential pilots. In addition, there were perhaps as many as 1,500 noncertificated pilot schools whose course content and standards met FAA requirements. Many small general aviation companies, such as air taxis, teach flying in addition to their other activities, but do not consider that they are running “schools,” and so are not counted as such. The 1,720 FAA-certificated pilot schools as of January 1968 represented, as table 21 shows, a substan tial increase in number over the 1,182 in December 1965,14 and there is every indication that this growth is continuing to the present time. Certification by FAA depends not on the size of the school, but on quality of curriculum, including actual course content, facilities, and equipment, as well as on qualification of instructors. Approved schools range from operations with one part-time teacher to universities offering professional pilot courses entailing 4 years of intense study and flight training. By January 1, 1968, there were 65 FAAapproved schools being operated by, or in conjunction 14 There were 953 FAA-approved schools offering flight training in 1963, and 994 in 1964, according to FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 94. PILOTS Table 14. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and helicopter pilots, by industry division, anticipated employment at peak 1970 Anticip. empl. at peak 1970 Industry division Total pilots Fixed-wing pilots Helicopter pilots Number of employees All civil air carriers All pilots and c o p ilo ts ................................................................................................... Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors................................................................. Flight instructors............................................................................................................ 39,400 38,000 1,400 39,185 37,790 1,395 215 210 5 Certificated route carriers All pilots and c o p ilo ts .................................................................................................... Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors................................................................. Flight instructors......................................... ................................................................... 37,100 35,780 1,320 36,895 35,580 1,315 205 200 5 Percentage distribution All civil air carriers All pilots and c o p ilo ts .................................................................................................... Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors................................................................. Flight instructors............................................................................ □ ............................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.5 99.4 99.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 Certificated route carriers All pilots and c o p ilo ts .................................................................................................... Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors Flight instructors............................................................................................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.4 95.9 99.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 SOURCE: T o tal em ploym ent as shown In table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data. 13 with, an accredited college or university. About 185 schools had attained sufficient stature to be granted examining authority. But the vast majority were small enterprises with a few pupils, conducted on a part-time basis at small fields in relatively light aircraft, frequently in conjunction with other commercial operations which constituted the main business. Flight and ground training for pilots at certificated schools is widely available on a geographic basis, as shown in table 22. California had the largest number (235) in any one State in January 1968, with Texas second (142), and New York third (80). But each of the other 47 States and the District of Columbia had a substantial number in relation to its size, ranging from 2 in the District of Columbia to 66 in Pennsylvania. All 27 labor areas for which the USTES received reports in the spring of 1968 indicated that they had adequate training facilities for pilots. The schools offered a broad range of instruction, from elementary flight and ground courses through programs for flight instructors and commercial flying with instruments, as table 22 also shows. Altogether, a total of 7,025 instruction programs were authorized for the 1,720 certificated schools. About 1,600 of these FAA authorizations, or ratings, applied to basic and advanced ground school programs; 2,864 to primary and commercial airplane flying programs; 1,108 to instru ment flying programs; and 1,257 to flight instructor PILOTS Table 15. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by highest rating held, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 Industry division/sector All pilots and copilots Pilots and copilots whose highest rating wasAirline transport Commercial Other ratingl/ Number employed Grand to tal.......................................................................................................... 66,260 28,360 37,250 650 Air carriers, t o t a l .............................................................................................. Certificated ro u te ........................................................................................ O th e rs ......................................................................................................... 34,500 32,500 2,000 16,990 16,000 990 17,510 16,500 1,010 &) &) General aviation, total . . . . ........................................................... Executive transportation ............................................................................ Air t a x i......................................................................................................... Aerial application........................................................................................ 1ndustr ial/special............................. .. ....................................................... Flight and ground schools......................................................................... Government................................................................................................ Repair stations ........................................................................................... 31,760 13,880 7,640 1,750 1,620 4,080 2,140 650 11,375 7,980 1,360 35 310 770 800 120 19,740 5,780 6,120 1,570 1,300 3,220 1,250 500 645 120 160 145 10 90 90 30 (2/) Percentage distribution Grand to tal......................................................................................................... 100.0 42.8 56.2 Air carriers, t o t a l .............................................................................................. Certificated ro u te........................................................................................ O th e rs ......................................................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 49.2 49.2 49.5 50.8 50.8 50.5 General aviation, t o t a l ..................................................................................... Executive transportation............................................................................ Air t a x i.......................................................................................................... Aerial application ........................................................................................ 1ndustrial/special........................................................................................ Flight and ground schools......................................................................... Government................................................................................................. Repair stations ........................................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 35.8 57.5 17.8 2.0 19.1 18.9 37.4 18.5 62.2 41.6 80.1 89.7 80.3 78.9 58.4 76.9 ^ M a in ly instructor or helicopter. -'F e w e r than 5. S O U R C E : E m ploym ent totals as shown In tables 3 and 9 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data. 14 1.0 — - 2.0 0.9 2.1 8.3 0.6 2.2 4.2 4.6 PILOTS Table 16. A ll civil aviation, percentage distribution of airline transport rated and commercial rated pilots, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 All pilots and copilots Industry division/sector Pilots and copilots whose highest rating was-Airline transport Commercial Other rating Grand to tal................................................................... ...................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Air carriers, t o t a l ............................................................................................. Certificated ro u te.................................................... „ ............................. O th e rs ............................................ 52.1 49.0 3.0 59.9 56.4 3.5 47.0 44.3 2.7 0.8 — - General aviation, t o t a l .................................................................................... Executive transportation........................................................................... Air t a x i......................................................................................................... Aerial application........................................................................................ 1ndustrial/special....................................................................................... Flight and ground schools......................................................................... Government................................ ................. * ■ ........................................ Repair stations .......................... ................................................................ 47.9 20.9 11.5 2.6 2.4 6.2 3.2 1.0 40.1 28.1 4.8 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.8 0.4 53.0 15.5 16.4 4.2 3.5 8.6 3.4 1.3 99.2 18.5 24.6 22.3 1.5 13.8 13.8 4.6 S O U R C E : Based on table 15. programs. Very few schools offered approved training related to glider and helicopter flying. As previously noted, the civilian aviation industry depends almost entirely on the military for its supply of helicopter pilots because of the high cost of such training. More impor tantly, very few schools have or are able to offer training on jets or other types of heavy, sophisticated equipment which are used by air carriers, in some executive flying, and by some air taxis. Where they do offer this type of training, it is usually by special tie-in arrangement with companies owning the necessary aircraft and the run ways on which to operate them. G overn m en t aid. The recent sharp increase in the number, and, in many instances, the capacity of FAAcertiflcated flight schools received its major impetus from the provisions of the Veterans Pension and Readjustment Assistance Act of 1967 (Public Law 90-77), effective October 1, 1967. This Act approved financial assistance by the Veterans Administration for ex-servicemen who are qualified to take flight training leading to a commercial pilot’s license. The benefits are quite liberal—90 percent of established tuition and fee charges for a period up to 36 months.15 The 1967 GI benefit law represented a drastic change from the provisions of its 1966 counterpart. The 1966 Act contained a clause specifying that flight training would be paid for only if it were part of an accredited college course leading to a degree. The 1967 Act relaxed the college-course provisions of the 1966 Act, but substituted others. To qualify for benefits under PL 90-77, a veteran must have been in the military service for more than 180 days, already possess a private pilot’s license or the equivalent number of flight hours to earn such a license, pass a Class II medical examination, and must take advanced flight training in an FAAcertificated school and only for the purpose of seriously preparing for a career in civil aviation with, at least, a commercial pilot’s license. The Act covers an 8-year period ending August 31,1975. The response by veterans to the opportunity to undertake serious career flight training with VA reim bursement has been enormous. Many additional schools have applied for and been granted FAA certification to become eligible under the program. Moreover, since the 1967 Act became effective, the content of the approved programs has been enlarged to include special courses for additional pilot ratings, as well as proficiency courses in agricultural and specialized helicopter operations for which no ratings are given. Under amendments to the regulations governing certification of pilot schools (Part 141 of the Federal Aviation Regulations), FAA will now approve courses for aircraft class and type ratings, and for preparation for airline transport pilot certificates, agricultural flying, and special operations involving external loads on helicopters, as well as courses leading 15 In addition, the U.S. Office o f Education will lend up to $1,000 for students taking flight training at certificated schools. The loan program is open to all students, including those who cannot fully meet VA criteria. 15 PILOTS Table 17. A ll civil aviation, employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial who also held'instrument ratings, spring 1968 C o m m e rc ia l ra ted p ilo ts In s tru m e n t ra ted In d u s try d iv is io n /s e cto r T o ta l num ber Num ber P ercen t o f to ta l C iv il a v ia tio n , t o t a l .................................... 3 7 ,2 5 0 3 2 ,2 7 5 8 6 .6 A ll c a r r i e r s ...................................................... 1 7 ,5 1 0 1 6 ,8 8 0 1 7 ,4 8 5 9 9 .9 9 9 .9 1 0 0 .0 E x c lu d in g flig h t in s tru cto rs . . . . F lig h t in s t r u c t o r s ................................. C e rtific a te d r o u te c a r r i e r s ...................... 630 1 6 ,8 5 5 630 1 6 ,5 0 0 1 6 ,4 6 5 9 9 .8 . . . . 1 5 ,9 0 0 1 5 ,8 7 5 F lig h t in s t r u c t o r s ................................ 600 590 9 9 .8 9 8 .3 G en e ra l a v ia tio n , t o t a l ............................. 1 9 ,7 4 0 1 4 ,7 9 0 7 4 .9 E x e c u tiv e tr a n s p o r t a t io n .................. A i r t a x i ...................................................... - A e ria l a p p l ic a t i o n ................................ 1n d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l................................ F lig h t a nd g ro u n d s c h o o l s .............. G o v e r n m e n t ........................................... R e p a ir s ta tio n s ........................................ 5 ,7 8 0 6 .1 2 0 1 ,5 7 0 1 ,3 0 0 3 ,2 2 0 1 ,2 5 0 500 4 ,7 4 5 4 ,8 0 0 535 605 2 ,6 7 5 8 2 .1 7 8 .4 3 4 .1 4 6 .5 8 3 .1 8 4 .4 7 5 .0 E x c lu d in g flig h t in stru cto rs 1 ,0 5 5 375 S O U R C E : E m p lo y m e n t to ta ls as show n in tables 3 and 9 d is trib u te d on th e basis o f U S T E S survey sam ple d ata. to a certificate as a commercial pilot, flight instructor, or instrument-rated pilot. By the end of February 1969, according to a VA survey,16 about 29,400 veterans had completed flight training of some kind, and 21,370 were enrolled at flight schools. Schools were enlarging their capacity in antici pation of further increases in enrollments of veterans. S ch o o l graduates as sou rce o f su pply. Evaluation of flying school graduates as additions to the professional pilot labor supply involves consideration of two aspects—numbers and qualifications. Unfortunately, there are no comprehensive FAA data on the number who graduate each year with at least a commercial license, or, more importantly, on the number of these who enter and remain in the civil aviation industry as professionals. While estimates based on the USTES spring 1968 survey of employers show that about 56,000 students were expected to be graduated from flight and ground schools in 1968, there is every indication that this figure is highly inflated to the extent that surveyed schools reported total enrollment rather than prospective graduates. Moreover, there was no indication of what type of pilot training these students had undertaken, for which licenses they were qualifying, 16 Veterans Administration, Department o f Veterans Bene fits, unpublished data. 17 N ot including flight and ground schools. 16 nor whether they expected to make a career of aviation or were simply taking instruction for their private use or pleasure. It is quite clear that not all flight school training is to be construed as adding to the civil aviation industry’s professional pilot supply. Many students start training but drop out before completion. A great many others study only long enough to obtain a private license. Still others are already licensed commercial pilots merely seeking additional type or class ratings. For example, one large school reported in the USTES survey that, out of 600 pilots to be trained in 1968, 50 sought additional ratings, 540 sought check outs in various aircraft models, and only 10 were training for new licenses. It remains to be seen whether the new VA-supported school program, oriented as it is toward serious preparation for a civil aviation career, will eventually produce substantial num bers of additional qualified professional pilots. O n-th e-job training. Some on-the-job training of pilots was going on in every sector of the civil aviation industry in 1968. It is estimated, on the basis of employer reports made in the spring of 1968, that about 25,000 pilots would complete formal company training programs of some kind during the year. Most of this was orientation, refresher, upgrading, class, or type training of experienced pilots. About 5,700 pilots were being trained by carriers and the remainder by general aviation firms,17 primarily those in executive transportation and air taxi operations, many of which provide flight instruction as a sideline. Some of the training of general aviation pilots on the larger and more sophisticated aircraft which were coming into increasing use, espe cially in corporate or executive flying, was being provided by contract with airlines. Some aircraft manu facturers were also providing training of employed pilots on new generations of aircraft as they were put to use. Conclusions The potential supply of qualified professional pilots appears to be quite adequate for the overall needs of the civil aviation industry, at least for the short-run period under review. No shortage existed or was contemplated in employer reports. School facilities are numerous and widespread. Unusually good VA benefits are available to veterans who qualify and are willing to undertake schooling leading to a professional pilot’s career, and thousands have taken advantage of the opportunity. Companies are providing on-the-job training to meet their own particu- PILOTS Table 18. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by highest rating held, by industry division, spring 1968 All pilots and copilots Industry division Pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructor-Total Who were also flight engineers Flight instructors Number employed All carriers, total.............................................................................................. Airline transport........................................................................................ Commercial. .............................................................................................. Instrument r a te d .................................................................................. 34,500 16,990 17,510 17,485 33,255 16,375 16,880 16,855 9,940 4,895 5,045 n.a. 1,245 615 630 630 Certificated route carriers, to ta l.................................................................... Airline transport........................................................................................ Com m ercial.............................................................................................. Instrument r a te d .................................................................................. 32,500 16,000 16,500 16,465 31,330 15,430 15,900 15,875 9,815 4,835 4,980 n.a. 1,170 570 600 590 Percentage distribution All carriers, total ........................................................................................... Airline transport........................................................................................ Com m ercial.............................................................................................. Instrument r a t e d .................................................................................. 100.0 49.2 50.8 50.7 100.0 49.2 50.8 50.7 100.0 49.2 50.8 n.a. 100.0 49.4 50.6 50.6 Certificated route carriers, to ta l.................................................................... Airline transport........................................................................................ Commercial . ........................................................................................... Instrument r a t e d .................................................................................. 100.0 49.2 50.8 50.7 100.0 49.2 50.8 50.7 100.0 49.3 50.7 n.a. 100.0 48.7 51.3 50.4 SOURCE: Em p loym en t totals as shown In table 3 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data. lar standards and requirements, and there is no lack of recruits from among either releasees from the military services or from the civilian labor force. Although general aviation companies were reportedly suffering from turnover resulting from the competition of the airlines for the cream of the trained pilot supply, this situation promised to ease as airline growth require ments tapered off to a plateau through 1970. General aviation’s ability to hire and retain pilots will depend on the terms of employment being offered. Airlines have proven that they can attract the kind of pilot they desire. An airline pilot career is a desirable one, with provision for advancement on a seniority basis, and from the smaller, slower aircraft to the largest and fastest, with concomitant pay increases and other benefits. General aviation companies will have to take these factors into account in seeking to solve their turnover problems. 17 Chapter III. Employment trends A total of 100,500 aircraft mechanics18 were em ployed in civil aviation19 in the spring of 1967. By the spring of 1968, about 5,300 or 5.3 percent more had been added to payrolls and estimates based on employer anticipations at that time indicated a prospective even sharper employment rise of 7,600, or 7.2 percent, by spring 1969 (tables 23 and 24). The 1969-70 increase, however, was expected to drop to 4,400, or 3.9 percent. If reported hiring schedules materialize as planned, spring 1970 mechanic employment will be an estimated 17,300, or 17.2 percent above spring 1967, and peak 1970 mechanic employment will be approximately 20,000, or 18 percent above the 1967 peak. This would represent an average 3-year requirement of roughly 6,700 a year for expansion purposes alone, not including the need for replacement of workers who leave the industry for one reason or another. As in the case of pilots, the major part of the demand for additional mechanics is attributable to the antici pated growth requirements of general aviation com panies. Aircraft mechanic employment in general avia tion totaled 51,500 in spring 1967. By spring 1968 this total had risen by 3,300, or 6.4 percent, to 54,800. Employers expected it to rise 5,600, or about 10 percent more, to 60,400 by the spring of 1969. Although between 1969 and 1970 the demand for general aviation aircraft mechanics was expected to be less than half that of the previous year, dropping to 2,400 or 4.0 percent, spring 1970 employment was expected to total 62,800, about 11,300 or 22 percent above spring 1967, accord ing to estimates based on employers’ reports to the USTES. The peak 1967 to peak 1970 growth require ments estimate was even higher—13,400 or 23 percent over the 3-year period. On the basis of these estimates, the average annual 1967-70 demand for aircraft mechanics by the general aviation industry for expansion purposes alone appears to be in the neighborhood of 4,500 a year. Air carrier demand was expected to be less than half of this. Carriers employed 49,000 mechanics in spring 1967, had added 2,000 (or 4 percent) by spring 1968, and expected to continue to add about 2,000 (or roughly 4 percent) a year through 1970, for a total expansion of 6,000, or about 12 percent over the 3-year period. At peak 1970, air carrier mechanic employment was expected to total approximately 60,000, and to be only 6,500 or 12.2 percent above peak 1967. 18 Mechanics Route airlines, both scheduled and nonscheduled, accounted for 96 percent of all air carrier mechanic employment and for virtually all of the estimated prospective employment increases. Other types of carriers (supplemental and commercial operator) ex pected to add only about 200 mechanics between peak 1967 and peak 1970. While strictly comparable historical data are not available, closely related figures, including maintenance workers as well as mechanics, which are compiled each year by the Federal Aviation Administration,20 indicate that the prospective 2000-a-year growth requirement for aircraft mechanics by certificated route airlines in 1969 and 1970 would represent a continued leveling off in the rapid employment expansion which had been going on since 1964. The 1963-64 increase in the employment of mechanics and maintenance workers was 4,900. Com parable year-to-year changes for the years through 1968 were approximately as follows: 1964-65, 2,300; 1965-66, 3,660; 1966-67, 4,700; 1967-68, 2,000. If all plans for the expansion of mechanic employ ment through 1970 are realized, the general aviation division will employ, at that time, an even larger proportion of the total civilian aircraft mechanic force21 than it did in 1967. In spring 1967, general aviation mechanics accounted for 51.2 percent of a total of 100,500 employed aircraft mechanics. Attainment of the spring 1970 employment levels, estimated on the basis of the anticipations reported in the USTES survey sample, by all civil aviation employers would raise general aviation’s share to 53.3 percent. General aviation firms would have 7,800 more mechanics on their payrolls than did air carriers; the difference was 2,500 in 1967. A ir carrier mechanics, b y occupation . The U.S. Training and Employment Service survey of the air carrier industry yielded a breakdown on the basis of which it was possible to estimate both current and 18 Only aircraft mechanics are included in this survey. Maintenance workers, such as carpenters and electricians, are excluded. Each o f the mechanic occupations covered is described in Appendix B. 19 Air carriers and general aviation, excluding civilian em ployees o f the Department o f Defense, who are considered in Section IV. 2 0 FAA, Statistical H andbook o f A viation, and Air Transport Association o f America, A ir Transport Facts and Figures. 21 Excluding the Department o f Defense. PILOTS Table 19. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 Pilots 1ndustry division/sector Total Aged 50 years and over Aged 50 years and over as percentage of total Number employed Grand to ta l.............................................. 66,260 7,265 11.0 Air carriers, t o t a l .................................. Certificated r o u te ............................ O th e r s .............................................. 34,500 32,500 2,000 3,255 3,065 190 9.4 9.4 9.5 General aviation, t o t a l ......................... Executive transportation............... Air t a x i .............................................. Aerial application............................ Industrial/special............................ Flight and ground schools............ G overnm ent..................................... Repair stations ............................... 31,760 13,880 7,640 1,750 1,620 4,080 2,140 650 4,010 1,830 900 230 120 445 400 85 12.6 13.2 11.8 13.1 7.4 10.9 18.7 13.1 Percentage distribution Grand to ta l.............................................. 100.0 100.0 Air carriers, t o t a l .................................. Certificated r o u te ............................ O th e r s .............................................. 52.1 49.0 3.0 44.8 42.2 2.6 General aviation, t o t a l ......................... Executive transportation............... Air t a x i .............................................. Aerial application............................ Industrial/special............................ Flight and ground schools............ G overnm ent..................................... Repair stations ............................... 47.9 20.9 11.5 2.6 2.4 6.2 3.2 1.0 55.2 25.2 12.4 3.2 1.7 6.1 5.5 1.2 900 in the following 2 years. The overall 3-year estimated demand for licensed airframe and powerplant (A&P) mechanics, measuring from spring 1967 to spring 1970, totaled somewhat more than 2,400, of which more than half had apparently already been met by spring 1968. The estimated 3-year growth requirement for the miscellaneous group of “ other” mechanics, which embraces a variety of very specialized and highly skilled workers, was somewhat higher, totaling approximately 2,800. About 20,000 of these specialized mechanics worked for air carriers in spring 1968, only 220 more than in spring 1967. But the demand was increasing sharply. Employers hoped to hire an additional 2,600 by spring 1970, and to have nearly 3,600 more on their payrolls at peak 1970 than they had at peak 1967. Roughly 2,800 airplane electricians and 2,800 elec tronic mechanics were in the employ of civil air carriers in the spring of 1968. Estimates based on reported employer anticipations indicated a need for an addi tional 250 electricians and 270 electronic mechanics in the ensuing 2 years. By peak 1970, employment in each of these occupations was estimated to total around 3,350, requiring the net addition of about 400 o f each S O U R C E : Em p lo ym en t totals as shown in tables 3 and 9 distributed on the basis o f U STES survey sample data. prospective employment of mechanics in specific occu pations; i.e., certificated aircraft and engine mechanic,22 certificated airplane electrician, electronic mechanic, and “ other” types of mechanic, which includes certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanic. Each of these occupations, or occupational categories, is described in Appendix B. A similar breakdown by specific mechanic occupation was not obtained for the general aviation industry. About half of all mechanics employed by civil air carriers in the spring of 1968 were aircraft and engine mechanics certificated by the FAA, according to esti mates based on employer reports, and about two-fifths were in the “ other” category (table 25). Airplane electricians and electronic mechanics each constituted 5-6 percent of the total. Air carriers employed about 25,300 certificated aircraft and engine mechanics (also known as licensed airframe and powerplant mechanics) in the spring of 1968, both on the line and in overhaul and maintenance bases. Spring 1968 employment was about 1,500 above spring 1967, but carriers expected to add only about PILOTS Ta b le 20. A ll civil aviation , total and average annual hours flo w n b y p ilots, year ending A p ril/ M a y 1968 A ll pilo ts and c o p ilo ts In d u s try d ivis io n /se cto r P ilots and c o p ilo ts exc lu d in g flig h t instructors F lig h t In s tru c to rs T o ta l hours flo w n (thousands) G ran d t o t a l .................................... Civil a ir carriers, to ta l . . . . A C e rtific a te d r o u t e .............. O th e r ........................................ G eneral a v ia tio n , to ta l . . . . E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n . A ir t a x i .................................... A e ria l a p p lic a t io n .............. I n d u s tr ia l/s p e c ia l............... F lig h t and gro u n d schools G o v e r n m e n t ......................... R e p a ir stations .................. 3 2 ,3 5 5 .1 1 7 ,4 1 5 .1 1 6 ,3 9 0 .4 1 ,0 2 4 .7 1 6 ,9 7 7 .0 1 5 ,9 9 6 .9 9 8 0 .1 4 3 8 .1 3 9 3 .5 4 4 .6 1 4 ,9 4 0 .0 5 ,2 4 1 .8 5 ,2 8 0 .9 7 9 1 .2 2 5 9 .1 2 ,6 1 2 .6 4 3 0 .8 3 2 3 .6 Average a nnual hours flo w n p e r p ilo t G ran d t o t a l .................................... 512 C iv il a ir carriers, t o t a l .............. C e rtific a te d r o u t e ............... O t h e r ........................................ 515 515 512 G eneral a v ia tio n , to ta l . . . . E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n . A ir t a x i .................................... A e ria l a p p lic a t io n .............. 509 407 In d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l............... F lig h t and gro u n d schools G o v e r n m e n t ......................... R e p a ir stations .................. 166 708 208 519 5 21 522 508 360 344 615 763 487 S O U R C E : U S T E S survey sam ple d ata fo r to ta l hours flo w n by p ilo ts in fla te d to n a tio n a l to ta ls by same fa c to r as used to in fla te 1 9 6 7 survey e m p lo y m e n t da ta . Average to ta l hours flo w n by average o f em The title “ aircraft and engine” mechanic and “airframe annual hours flo w n p er p ilo t c o m p u te d by divid in g p lo y m e n t in spring o f 1 9 6 7 and spring o f 1 9 6 8 . and powerplant (A&P)” mechanic are interchangeable. 22 19 type of mechanic above peak 1967. Air carrier needs for licensed airplane electricians and electronic mechanics were relatively small in number, but reportedly crucial to operations. PILOTS T a b le 21 . N u m b e r o f F A A -c e rtific a te d flig h t and g rou nd scho ols fo r p ilo ts, b y ty p e o f sc h o o l, 1965-68 N u m b e r o f c e rtific a te d schools f o r p ilo ts T y p e o f school D e c. 3 1 , 1 9 6 5 General aviation mechanics, by Not all of these mechanics were full-time or certifi cated or licensed, but most were all-around mechanics. The general aviation industry is characterized by small establishments, frequently with no more than one or two aircraft to maintain. If a mechanic is employed, he must be able to do all the work. In many one-man operations, particularly in the aerial/application and industrial/special sectors of the industry, the pilot, who is also frequently the owner-operator, is a qualified airframe and engine mechanic as well, and performs the maintenance function on a when-needed basis. Operators who do not employ their own mechanics, or whose repair needs are beyond the abilities of their staffs, have their work done at repair stations or at the overhaul and maintenance bases of air carriers. Repair stations employed about 39,000 mechanics and repairmen in 1967, and estimates based on the USTES sample of firms indicate a peak 1967 to peak 1970 need for about 8,300 or 19 percent more (table 27). An expansion of more than 1,800, or 31 percent, was planned by companies providing executive transpor tation. The sharpest relative increase was contemplated by schools and by air taxis. Both mechanic schools and air taxi operations hoped to have roughly 45 percent more mechanics on their payrolls at peak 1970 than they had at peak 1967. Each of the other general aviation sectors also planned to expand its mechanic work force well above previous levels. 20 J an . 1, 1 9 6 8 C o m b in e d flig h t a n d g ro u n d . 402 505 F lig h t o n l y ..................................... 734 773 G ro u n d o n l y ................................. 46 74 127 T o t a l ......................................... 1 ,1 8 2 1 ,3 5 2 1 ,7 2 0 industry sector. While about three-fourths of the nearly 55,000 general aviation aircraft mechanics were in repair stations in the spring of 1968, some were employed in each of the other sectors, according to estimates based on em ployers’ reports to the USTES survey (table 26). About 6,000, or 11 percent of the total, were engaged in maintaining and repairing aircraft used in executive transportation; close to 2,600, or nearly 5 percent of the total, were employed by air taxi operations; and more than 3,000, or close to 6 percent, were at schools, both teaching and maintaining equipment. State and local governments and Federal Government nonmilitary agen cies employed about 1,000. Approximately 900 were employed by firms engaged in industrial/special activi ties, and 700 were in the aerial/application sector. D ec. 3 1 ,1 9 6 6 813 780 S O U R C E : U.S. Departm ent o f Transportation, Federal Aviation Adm inistration, S ta tis tic a l H a n d b o o k o f A v ia tio n , 1 9 6 6 and 1967 editions, fo r 196 5 and 196 6 data. January 1, 196 8 data compiled from F A A :A C N o. 140-2 D . Mechanics age 50 years and over Age is less of an employment barrier for mechanics than for pilots. There are no FAA retirement age regulations for mechanics employed by air carriers, as there are for pilots or in general aviation firms, and a good number are in the upper age brackets. Estimates based on the USTES survey indicate that about 15 percent of the 105,800 mechanics employed in civil aviation in spring 1968, excluding civilians em ployed by the Department of Defense, were 50 years of age and over (table 28). Older mechanic^ accounted for 12 percent of the total number employed by air carriers and for 17 percent of all mechanics employed in general aviation, reflecting again the preference of carriers for younger workers. Although mechanic employment was divided fairly evenly between the carriers and general aviation in 1968, the carriers employed slightly less than 40 percent of the 15.800 older mechanics; about 60 percent were em ployed in general aviation, with 47 percent of the 15.800 at repair stations. Mechanic supply The major sources of supply for mechanics in recent years have been, and continue to be, graduates of public and private vocational institutions and veterans who have had some aircraft mechanic training and experience in the armed forces. Each of these sources, as well as the extent of on-the-job training being provided by em ployers, is evaluated below, within the framework of available information. Aircraft Mechanic Schools. As of mid-January 1969, a total of 106 aviation mechanic schools had been certificated by the FAA. Altogether these schools offered: 86 programs in powerplant mechanic skills, 82 programs in airframe mechanic skills, and 75 programs in PILOTS Table 22. FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating) January 1,1968 Number of certificated programs (ratings)^/ Total number Regionl/ and State B A P 869 733 1,518 39 7 5 3 16 17 1 8 Middle Atlantic . . . . New Y o r k ............... New Jersey............... Pennsylvania............ PG CG PH CH F FH I Schools Ratings 1,346 17 8 93 69 1,257 7 1,108 1,720 7,025 60 8 5 5 23 6 13 2 7 74 10 7 8 29 6 14 49 7 5 3 19 3 12 82 10 8 10 33 7 14 298 41 25 26 119 22 65 97 49 14 34 68 32 13 23 148 60 27 61 131 52 27 52 3 3 105 42 20 43 177 80 31 66 681 289 125 267 North Central: East North Central . . O h i o ....................... Indiana.................... Illin o is .................... Michigan................. W isconsin............... 130 23 20 41 40 6 109 17 14 40 32 6 231 46 30 65 59 31 207 41 25 58 56 27 3 1 1 1 174 39 18 50 49 18 256 48 38 74 64 32 1,069 208 137 315 296 113 West North Central . . Minnesota............... I o w a ....................... M issouri................. North Dakota . . . . South Dakota . . . . Nebraska.................. Kansas.............. 89 24 7 20 14 9 6 9 74 21 4 19 9 6 4 11 165 34 22 29 15 12 21 32 145 31 20 25 13 10 17 29 South: South Atlantic............ Delaware................. Maryland . .*............ Dist. of Col............... Virginia.................... West Virginia . . . . North Carolina . . . South Carolina Georgia.................... Florida.................... 110 2 6 2 7 2 10 13 26 42 110 1 4 1 7 1 13 10 21 52 189 3 13 2 20 8 25 20 37 61 170 Total, U.S., Territories, and Europe ............... North East: New England............... Maine....................... New Hampshire . . . V erm o nt................. Massachusetts . . . . Rhode Island . . . . Connecticut............ £2 See footnotes at end of table. 9 C 13 2 18 7 22 15 30 60 2 1 1 55 8 3 6 21 6 11 1 1 1 1 12 5 3 4 5 3 11 1 3 5 2 6 1 2 1 2 196 39 24 53 55 25 11 4 1 2 8 4 1 2 2 2 1 140 31 20 26 14 8 16 25 110 25 15 23 10 7 9 21 179 38 24 32 15 15 23 32 742 174 90 146 75 52 76 129 156 3 9 1 16 6 22 15 27 57 138 3 10 1 13 3 22 10 26 50 217 4 15 2 21 8 26 25 40 76 890 15 55 9 81 27 114 89 167 333 2 2 2 7 6 1 1 2 2 1 1 5 4 111 43 21 47 1 1 1 1 PILOTS Table 22. FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating) January 1,1968—Continued Total number Number of certificated programs (ratings)2/ Region ^/ and State CH 2 1 1 2 1 1 77 15 24 17 21 1 3 13 11 1 1 2 4 1 8 2 1 2 9 168 13 23 24 108 114 24 11 3 25 14 20 9 8 2 2 13 2 1 13 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 104 26 12 2 23 12 14 8 7 280 50 25 187 11 7 256 47 23 170 11 5 2 1 22 3 2 16 1 18 3 2 12 1 5 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 A East South Central . . . Kentucky .................. Tennessee.................. Alabam a.................... Mississippi.................. 53 14 17 12 10 42 12 9 12 9 88 16 28 20 24 78 15 25 17 21 West South Central . . . Arkansas.................... Louisiana .................. Oklahom a.................. Texas.......................... 141 7 14 25 95 126 6 11 18 91 214 18 28 36 132 181 15 23 28 115 3 43 15 41 14 11 6 7 4 1 6 8 5 3 4 124 27 13 4 24 14 20 13 9 P a c ific .......................... Washington............... Oregon....................... C a lifo rn ia.................. A la s k a ....................... H a w a ii....................... 160 22 7 116 11 4 139 19 7 99 10 4 Territories: Puerto R i c o .................. Guam ............................. 5 1 Europe: A n tw e rp ....................... 1 West: Mountain....................... M ontana.................... Idaho .......................... Wyoming.................... Colorado.................... New M exico............... Arizona....................... U t a h .......................... Nevada....................... FH PH B P C PG 1 CG F I Schools Ratings 66 15 24 13 14 92 19 29 20 24 409 89 130 91 99 156 11 21 25 99 232 19 29 42 142 101 70 126 159 662 86 16 9 1 21 10 15 8 6 134 28 13 4 26 15 25 14 9 543 126 47 11 114 68 88 51 38 222 38 18 153 10 3 344 58 31 235 13 7 1,348 231 108 918 65 26 2 1 5 1 18 4 1 1 1 6 247 47 24 164 9 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 ^/Regional distribution has been converted fro'm FA A to Labor D epartm ent pattern. 2 /K e y to ratings: B — Basic Ground School; A — Advanced Ground School; P — Primary Flying School - Airplane; C — Commercial Flying School - Airplanes; PG — Primary Flying School - Glider; CG — Commercial Flying School - Glider; PH — Primary Flying School - Helicopter; CH — Commercial Flying School - H elicopter; F — Flight Instructor School; CH — Commercial Flying School - Helicopter; F — Flight Instructor School; FH — Flight Instructor School - Helicopter; I — Instrum ent Flying School. SO U R C E : 2D , pp. 1-46. Derived from U.S. Departm ent of Transportation, Federal Aviation A dm inistration, List o f Certificated Pilot Flight and Ground Schools, January 1, 19 68, A C 140- MECHANICS Table 23. A ll civil aviation, em ploym ent trends, all mechanics, F by industry division, 1967-70 A ir carriers Date Total Total Certificated route General aviation Number employed Spring of: 1967 ............................................. 1968 ............................................. 1969 (e s t.)................................... 1970 (e s t.)................................... 100,500 105,800 113,400 117,800 49,000 51,000 53,000 55,000 47,000 49,000 51,000 53,000 51,500 54,800 60,400 62,800 Peak of : 1967 ............................................. 1968 (e s t.)................................... 1970 (e s t.)................................... 111,300 117,900 131,200 53,300 55,400 59,800 51,100 53,300 57,600 58,000 62,500 71,400 Percentage distribution Spring of: 1967 ............................................. 1968 ............................................. 1969 ( e s t.)................................... 1970 ( e s t.)................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 48.8 48.2 46.7 46.7 46.8 46.3 45.0 45.0 51.2 51.8 53.3 53.3 Peak of: 1967 ............................................. 1968 (e s t.)................................... 1970 (e s t.)................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 47.9 47.0 45.6 45.9 45.2 43.9 52.1 53.0 54.4 ^ A i r c r a f t mechanics o n ly ; does n o t include m aintenance w orkers. S O U R C E : See tab le 1. combined airframe and powerplant mechanic skills (table 29). Both the number of schools and the number of certificated programs being offered have increased rapidly since the middle of 1967. FAA-certificated aviation mechanic schools totaled 69 in 1963,23 10 were added in the 4# years between then and July 1, 1967, but 27 more were brought into the program in the ensuing year and a half to reach the total of 106 on January 15, 1969 24 During the same 18-month period, the total number of FAA-approved courses given by these schools also increased sharply, from 192 to 243. In table 30, all certificated aviation mechanic school programs offered during the period August 1966 to January 1969 have been grouped according to the regions and labor areas in which they were located. From this it may be seen that, in January 1969, more than three-fifths of all approved programs were being offered in the North Central and Western States. Nine States25 and the District of Columbia had no approved programs at all. Indeed, location of the certificated schools appears to bear only a minor relationship to probable concentrations of demand for 23 FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 69 . 2 4 There are, in addition, an unknown but undoubtedly large number o f noncertificated schools that have, for one reason or another, not sought or been granted certification. 25 Delaware, Kentucky, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia. 26 FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 69 . graduates. Thus, there are only three schools in the New York metropolitan area, of which only one is a major supplier; only three schools in the Chicago area, of which none is a major supplier; and no school at all in Nashville, Tenn., a medium-sized hub. On the other hand, aviation mechanics graduated from the major supplier in Pittsburgh, Pa., have to leave the area to find jobs; there is always a local surplus. Comprehensive data on total enrollment and sizes of the annual graduating classes of certificated aviation mechanic schools are not readily available, since FAA does not require the schools to maintain or report such records. However, information gathered as a by-product of the two formal FAA school inspections which are made each year gives some clues. On this basis, as well as on the basis of data reported in the USTES 1968 survey, it is estimated that between 12,000and 13,500 students were enrolled in FAA certificated aviation mechanic schools in 1968 (compared with 8,000 in 1963),26 and that the total number of prospective graduates in 1968 was in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 5,000. The number of graduates per school per year varies widely, ranging between 2 to 5 and 500 to 600. Only seven schools are “ major suppliers” of aviation mechanics. In addition to those mentioned above in the New York and Pittsburgh areas, major suppliers are located in Teterboro, New Jersey; Daytona Beach, Florida; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Lexington, Massachusetts; and Inglewood, California. The great majority of aviation mechanic schools are public institutions at vocational high school and techMECHANICS Tab le 24. A ll civil aviation, increases in em ploym ent over specified periods, by industry division, 1967-70 A ir carriers Date Total Total Certificated route General aviation Employment increases Spring of: 1967-68 ...................................... 1968-69 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1969-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1967-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 5,300 7,600 4,400 17,300 2,000 2,000 2,000 6,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 6,000 3 ,300 5,600 2,400 11,300 Peak of: 1967-68 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1968-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1967-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 6,600 13,300 19,900 2,100 4,400 6,500 2,200 4,300 6,500 4 ,500 8 ,9 0 0 13,400 Percentage increases Spring of: 1967-68 ...................................... 1968-69 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1969-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1967-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 5.3 7.2 3.9 17.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 12.2 4.3 4.1 3.9 12.8 6.4 10.2 4.0 21.9 Peak of: 1967-68 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1968-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 1967-70 ( e s t . ) ............................. 5.9 11.3 17.9 3.9 7.9 12.2 4.3 8.1 12.7 7.8 14.2 23.1 SO URCE: Based on tab le 2 3 . 23 nical trade school levels; only 16 are private schools, and only 14 are part of public or private universities or colleges, not including junior colleges. The University of Illinois, San Jose, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Idaho State, Utah State, Southern Illinois, and Western Michigan are examples of colleges and universities which offer approved courses for aviation mechanic certification. Government aid. A major impetus to the recent large increase in the number of aviation mechanic schools seeking FAA certification is the Federal aid offered to such schools through the U.S. Office of Education under the Smith-Hughes Act and under Title 3 of the GeorgeBarden Act. Under these Acts, certificated schools are receiving both financial aid and surplus equipment for use in training aviation mechanics. Federally guaranteed loans for students are also available under the auspices of the U.S. Office of Education, as they are for pilots. Unlike flight school attendance, attendance at an approved mechanic school of any type has always qualified a veteran for benefits under the “ G.I. Bill of Rights.” Aviation mechanics, however, are blanketed in with all other types of mechanics under the Veterans Educational Assistance Program and receive no special M E C H A N IC S Table 25. Civil air carriers, em ploym ent trends, by type of m echanic,!/ 1967-70 Type of mechanic Date Total Aircraft and engine mechanics Airplane electricians Electronic mechanics Other mechanics Number employed Spring of: 1967 ......................................................................... 1968 ......................................................................... 1969 (e s t.)................................................................ 1970 (e s t.)................................................................ 49,000 51,000 53,000 55,000 23,770 25,300 25,880 26,210 2,720 2,860 2,900 3,110 2,700 2,810 3,000 3,080 19,810 20,030 21,220 22,600 Peak of: 1967 ......................................................................... 1968 (e s t.)................................................................ 1970 (e s t.)................................................................ 53,300 55,400 59,800 26,390 27,540 28,500 2,960 3,060 3,380 2,950 3,040 3,350 21,000 21,760 24,570 Increases in number employed Spring of: 1967-68 ................................................................... 1968-69 (e s t.)........................................................... 1969-70 4e s t.)........................................................... 1967-70 (e s t.)........................................................... 2,000 2,000 2,000 6,000 1,530 580 330 2,440 140 40 210 390 110 190 80 380 220 1,190 1,380 2,790 Peak of: 1967-68 (e s t.)........................................................... 1968-70 (e s t.)........................................................... 1967-70 (e s t.)........................................................... 2,100 4,400 6,500 1,150 960 2,110 100 320 420 90 310 400 760 2,810 3,570 Percentage distribution Spring of: 1967 ......................................................................... 1968 ......................................................................... 1969 (e s t.)................................................................ 1970 (e s t.)................................................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 48.5 49.6 48.8 47.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 40.2 39.3 40.0 41.1 Peak of: 1967 ............................................................................ 1968 (es t.)................................................................... 1970 (est.)................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 49.5 49.7 47.7 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.6 39.4 39.3 41.1 !/A ir c r a ft mechanics only; does not include m aintenance workers. S O U R C E : E m ploym ent totals as shown in table 2 3 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data. 24 benefits such as pilots do. Allowances are nominal and are not related to school tuition and fee charges, as are those for pilots. The cost of a mechanic trainee’s education may be nothing or much more than his allowance, but this cost is not taken into account in determining the amount of money he receives, nor are any incentives offered to induce him to undertake aviation mechanic schooling rather than any other kind. A veteran attending mechanic school full time receives $130 a month if he has no dependents, $165 a month if he has one dependent, $175 if he has two dependents, and $10 a month more for each dependent above two. Allowances for part-time school attendance are propor tionately less. The latest available Veterans Administration survey indicates that cumulatively through June 30, 1968, a total of only 7,327 men had undergone training as aircraft mechanics with VA benefits27 (compared with 29,400 pilots).' Of these, 7,310 had received their training in school and 17 on the job. Only about 2,300 of the school trainees had attended a vocational school or technical post-high school; the rest, about 5,000, had attended vocational or technical schools which did not require a previous high school education. No informa tion is available as to how many of these 7,300 veteran-trainees had actually sought or found jobs as aircraft mechanics in the civil aviation industry. School graduates as source o f supply. It is said of public aviation mechanic schools that many enroll, few graduate. Moreover, not all graduates, by any means, find their way into jobs in the aviation industry. A graduate of a public school of high school level may have become adept at mechanical skills, but will still require 3 to 4 years of arduous on-the-job training under close supervision before he is ready to undergo FAA examina tion and fill a licensed aircraft mechanic’s position. Many never reach this stage. Upon graduation, they tend to seek mechanic jobs in aircraft manufacturing or outside of the aviation industry where licensing is not required. Perhaps as many as half of them are thus lost to the civil aviation industry. The quality of education offered in this field in public institutions, many of which are operating at or near capacity, is generally not of the best nor the most up-to-date. A very large amount of space is needed and 27 Veterans Administration, Department o f Veterans Bene fits, unpublished data. M E C H A N IC S !' Table 26. General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70 Spring o fSector 1967 1968 Peak o f- 1969 (est.) 1970 (est.) 1967 1968 (est.) 1970 (est.) 62,500 6,560 3,140 810 960 3,550 1,160 46,320 71,400 7,810 4,000 1,110 1,130 4,400 1,200 51,750 100.0 10.5 5.0 1.3 1.5 5.7 1.9 74.1 100.0 10.9 5.6 1.6 1.6 6.2 1.7 72.5 Number employed!/ General aviation, t o t a l ....................... Executive transportation............... Air t a x i............................................ Aerial application.......................... I ndustrial/special.......................... Mechanic schools.......................... Government................................... Repair stations ............................. 51,500 5,020 2,290 680 900 2,490 1,100 39,020 54,800 6,090 2,590 710 910 3,120 1,120 40,260 60,400 6,430 3,170 810 960 3,680 1,150 44,200 62,800 6,870 3,530 980 990 3,880 1,150 45,400 58,000 5,960 2,700 790 960 3,050 1,120 43,420 Percentage distribution General aviation, t o t a l ............\ . . . Executive transportation............... Air t a x i............................................ Aerial application.......................... I ndustrial/special.......................... Mechanic schools.......................... Government................................... Repair stations ............................. 100.0 9.8 4.4 1.3 1.8 4.8 2.1 75.8 100.0 11.1 4.7 1.3 1.7 5.7 2.0 73.5 100.0 10.6 5.2 1.3 1.6 6.1 1.9 73.2 100.0 10.9 5.6 1.6 1.6 6.2 1.8 72.3 100.0 10.3 4.6 1.4 1.6 5.3 1.9 74.9 J /A ir c r a ft mechanics only; does not include m aintenance workers. S O U R C E : See table 1. 25 MECHANICS Table 27. General aviation, changes in employment, by industry sector, 1967-70 Spring o fSector 1967-68 1968-69 (est.) Peak o f- 1969-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) 1968-70 (est.) 1967-70 (est.) 4,500 600 440 20 0 500 40 2,900 8,900 1,250 860 300 170 850 40 5,430 13,400 1,850 1,300 320 170 1,350 80 8,330 7.8 10.1 16.3 2.5 0 16.4 3.6 6.6 14.2 19.1 27.4 37.0 17.7 23.9 3.4 11.7 23.1 31.0 48.1 40.5 17.7 44.3 7.1 19.2 1967-68 (est.) Increases in number employed General aviation, t o t a l ........................ Executive transportation............... Air ta x i............................................ Aerial application.......................... 1ndustrial/special.......................... Mechanic schools.......................... Government................................... Repair stations ............................. 3,300 1,070 300 30 10 630 20 1,240 5,600 340 580 100 50 560 30 3,940 2,400 440 360 170 30 200 0 1,200 11,300 1,850 1,240 300 90 1,390 50 6,380 Percentage increases General aviation, t o t a l ........................ Executive transportation............... Air t a x i............................................ Aerial application.......................... 1ndustrial/special.......................... Mechanic schools.......................... Government................................... Repair stations ............................. 6.4 21.3 13.1 4.4 1.1 25.3 1.8 3.2 10.2 5.6 22.4 14.1 5.5 17.9 2.7 9.8 4.0 28.1 38.4 21.0 3.1 5.4 0 2.7 34.2 36.9 54.1 44.1 10.0 55.8 4.5 16.4 S O U R C E : Based on table 26. often not available. At Aviation High School in Long Island City, New York, the largest aviation mechanic school in the country, for example, 2,400 day students and 525 evening students were enrolled in the spring of 1968, but there were only 2,000 bench spaces. The school was operating above capacity by using extended sessions, but the Board of Education planned no facilities expansion at that time. It is perhaps unreason able to expect public high schools to be equipped with adequate supplies of materials and sophisticated tools and equipment, or with expensive airframes and jet engines for students to learn on. Only the basics can be taught at most public schools; the practical, real-world training and keeping abreast of the latest developments must take place where the equipment is, i.e., on the job. Except for graduates of universities and- the better private schools who have been certificated or licensed and choose to make a career of aeronautical mechanics, graduates of aviation mechanic schools are generally hired as trainees or apprentices. They are preferred over completely untrained men. As trainees or apprentices, they are in great demand, and it appears that the number that may become available for such work in the civil aviation industry as a whole in the next couple of years may be insufficient to meet the need. 26 M ilita r y -tr a in e d mechanics. Although aircraft mechanics trained in the military services are also an important source of manpower supply for civil aviation, employers in both the air carrier and general aviation divisions of the industry reported to the USTES, in the spring of 1968, that men who had received military training only were “ severely restricted for immediate placement in the civilian aircraft maintenance industry as full-functioning mechanics” because of their limited work experience. They tend to be specialized, either on one system of one type of airplane, or on some type of aircraft which does not exist in the civilian economy. Like public school graduates, they are generally hired as trainees or apprentices only. Reportedly, they not only require technical retraining, but their general job knowledge must be increased. Military-service-trained aircraft mechanics, no matter how adequate a source of good prospects for entry occupations, cannot meet civil aviation’s short-range need for fully qualified licensed mechanics of various types. Some of the necessary training may be obtained by veterans who seek further instruction at wellequipped schools. But the bulk of it must be obtained on the job. MECHANICS Ta b le 28. A ll civil aviation, num ber and percentage d istrib ution o f em ployed m echanics aged 5 0 years and over, spring 1968 M e c h a n ic s !/ In d u s try d ivis io n /s e c to r T o ta l A ged 5 0 years and over A ged 5 0 a nd over as percentage o f to ta l N u m b e r e m p lo y e d G ra n d t o t a l ................................ 1 0 5 ,8 0 0 1 5 ,7 7 5 1 4 .9 A ir c arriers, t o t a l ..................... C e rtific a te d r o u t e .............. O t h e r s .................................... 5 1 ,0 0 0 4 9 ,0 0 0 2 ,0 0 0 6 ,2 2 5 5 ,8 6 5 360 1 2 .2 1 2 .0 1 8 .0 G eneral a v ia tio n , to ta l . . . . E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n . A ir t a x i .................................... A e ria l a p p l ic a t i o n .............. 1n d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l............... A v ia tio n s c h o o ls .................. G o v e r n m e n t ......................... R e p a ir s tations .................. 5 4 ,8 0 0 6 ,0 9 0 2 ,5 9 0 710 910 3 ,1 2 0 1 ,1 2 0 4 0 ,2 6 0 9 ,5 5 0 930 305 115 100 1 7 .4 1 5 .3 1 1 .8 1 6 .2 1 1 .0 1 3 .5 420 205 7 ,4 7 0 1 8 .3 1 8 .6 Percentage d is trib u tio n G ra n d to ta l ................................ 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 A ir c arriers, t o t a l ...................... C e rtific a te d r o u t e .............. O t h e r s .................................... 4 8 .2 4 6 .3 1 .9 3 9 .5 3 7 .2 G en e ra l a v ia tio n , to ta l 5 1 .8 6 0 .5 5 .9 . . . . E x e c u tiv e tra n s p o rta tio n . A i r t a x i .................................... A e ria l a p p l ic a t i o n .............. 1n d u s t r ia l/s p e c ia l.............. A v ia tio n s c h o o ls .................. 5 .8 2 .4 0 .7 0 .9 2 .9 G o v e r n m e n t ......................... R e p a ir stations .................. 1.1 3 8.1 2 .3 1 .9 0 .7 0 .6 2 .7 1 .3 4 7 .4 J /A ir c r a ft m echanics o n ly ; does n o t in c lu d e m ain ten an ce w o rkers. S O U R C E : E m p lo y m e n t to ta ls as show n in tables 2 3 and 2 6 d is trib u te d on basis o f U S T E S survey sam ple data. On-the-job training. As of January 1, 1969, a total of about 1,000 trainees were enrolled in 3- or 4-year registered apprenticeship programs leading to licensing as aircraft mechanics.28 The programs were being con ducted mainly by airlines, but some general aviation firms, even very small ones, and some manufacturers were also participating. Most o f me apprentices were preparing for certification as A&P mechanics or airplane electricians, but the list of occupations for which on-the-job apprenticeship training under registered pro grams was being provided by employers includes the following occupations as well: aircraft assembly mechanic, accessories mechanic, aircraft mechanic, engine mechanic, helicopter mechanic, instrument mechanic, line service mechanic, propeller mechanic, radio mechanic, aircraft machinist, and sheet metal mechanic. It is estimated from the spring 1968 USTES survey data that nearly 12,000 aviation mechanics would complete formal company on-the-job training programs of some kind during 1968. Civil air carriers accounted for about 3,500 of this total, and general aviation companies,29 mainly repair stations, for the rest. The USTES questionnaire asked civil air carriers to report the number of workers “ expected* to complete training in 1968 for prom otion to each of the specified occupations” , i.e., certificated aircraft and engine mechanic, certificated airplane electrician, electronic mechanic, and “ other” mechanics (see appendix B). Estimates based on the responses indicate the following breakdown: Num ber o f aircraft mechanics to be trained in 1968 All mechanics, t o t a l ............................. Aircraft and engine m e c h a n ic s............................. Airplane electricians . ............................................ Electronic mechanics ............................................ Other m e c h a n ic s..................................................... 3 ,5 3 0 2 ,4 5 0 250 160 670 No such occupational breakdown is available for general aviation where employers were simply asked to report the total number of mechanics expected to complete formal company training programs in 1968. The total number for general aviation is estimated, on the basis of these reports, at 8,300, of which 6,500 were in repair stations and nearly 1,000 in executive transportation. Some training of mechanics was going on, however, in each of the other sectors of the industry. Interpretation of the figures reported to the USTES on the number of mechanics to be trained on the job must be tempered with caution. There is substantial evidence that they are heavily overstated to the extent that many employers included in their reports all mechanics undergoing training of any kind—orientation, refresher, upgrading, apprenticeship, etc.—rather than only those who would, upon completion of their training courses, be ready in 1968 for promotion to the position of a fully qualified and certificated mechanic of the type specified. But even these highly inflated figures fall short of the estimated annual combined replacement and growth needs for fully qualified mechanics by both air carriers and general aviation firms in the short-term future. The discrepancy between on-the-job training and probable needs is most marked in regard to airplane electricians, electronic mechanics, and “ other” mechanics, which includes radio, instrument, propeller, and such highly specialized mechanics as avionic technicians.30 28 U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Apprenticeship and Training, unpublished data. The term “aircraft mechanic,” as used here, encompasses all o f the occupations listed in the paragraph. 29 Not including mechanic schools. 3 0 Avionic technicians checkv repair, and install aircraft communication/navigation and control equipment. 27 MECHANICS Table 29. Number of FAA-certificated schools and approved programs (ratings) for mechanics, by type, 1966-69 Number of certificated schools for mechanics Program (rating) Aug. 1, 1966 Total schools........................................................................................ July 1,1967 July 15,1968 Jan. 15, 1969 78 79 97 106 Combined airframe and powerplant mechanic....................................................................................... Airframe mechanic o n l y ............................................................. Powerplant mechanic o n ly .......................................................... 59 66 68 60 64 68 71 77 80 75 82 86 Total Number of approved programs (ra tin g s).......................................................................................... 193 192 228 243 Number of approved programs (ratings) for: S O U R C E : Derived fro m U.S. D epartm ent of Transportation, Federal A viation A dm inistration, A dvisory Circulars A C 14 7 -2 B , A C 147-2C , A C 1 4 7 -2 D , and A C 147 -2E . Conclusions A tightness in the overall supply of aircraft mechanics in relation to the estimated demand seems to be developing. Of the 27 labor areas surveyed by the USTES in the spring of 1968, half reported stringencies in the supply of aircraft mechanics varying from slight to critical. Employers complained of shortages of fully qualified and certificated airplane electricians, electronic and instrument mechanics, and radio and avionic techni cians, as well as of airframe and powerplant mechanics. Graduates of most, though not all, aviation mechanic schools, and mechanics released from the armed forces cannot meet the need; they are not experienced with sophisticated modern civilian aircraft and can qualify only as trainees or apprentices. There is insufficient incentive for them to enter the long road through training to FAA certification when alternative job opportunities at good pay are available. While all route carriers and many other civil aviation companies, as well as some manufacturers of aircraft, are providing on-thejob training, it is inadequate for all expected replace ment and growth needs in the short-run future, especially in the most highly skilled and specialized occupations where the stringency already seems to be acute. 28 General aviation firms are at a particular disadvantage in hiring and retaining fully qualified mechanics of the types they need. Many of them complain that they cannot hold mechanics after they have spent a great deal of time and money training them because, once trained, they leave for better paying and more stable government or airline jobs. A very common practice among general aviation companies to meet this problem is to hire only certificated airframe and engine mechanics who are also pilots and can, therefore, justify higher and steadier pay by doing everything. In very small companies, the pilot/mechanic is frequently the employer himself. It is clear that all demands for fully qualified and certificated aircraft mechanics and specialized techni cians of various kinds cannot be met by recruitment in the open market. Expanded formal company on-the-job training programs, especially apprenticeship programs, planned sufficiently in advance of anticipated needs, appear to offer one practical approach to the problem. Study at the better equipped private schools might be encouraged through more generous government student aid grants or benefits under the Veterans Educational Assistance Program. If small general aviation firms are to compete in the labor market for a limited mechanic supply, they may have to offer inducements in the form of an adequate guaranteed annual wage or something similar. M ECHANICS Table 30. FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating), 1966-69 Number of certificated programs (ratings)^/ Region and labor areal/ Total U.S. and T errito ries......................................... August 1,1966 July 1,1967 July 15,1968 Jan. 15,1969 A P C A P C A P C A P C 66 68 59 64 68 60 77 80 71 82 86 75 11 12 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 North Eastern S ta te s .................................................. 12 13 11 New England........................................................... Boston, Mass........................................................ Danielson, Conn................................................... 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 Middle A tla n tic ..................................................... Buffalo, N.Y......................................................... New York, N .Y.................................................... Utica-Rome, N .Y................................................. Newark, N.J.......................................................... Paterson-Clifton-Passaic, N.J.............................. Pittsburgh, Pa....................................................... Philadelphia, Pa.................................................... Williamsport, Pa................................................... 9 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 North Central S ta te s .................................................. 14 14 14 13 13 16 19 19 20 21 20 22 East North C e n tra l............................................... Columbus, Ohio ............................................... Lafayette, I nd...................................................... Vincennes, Ind..................................................... Chicago, III........................................................... St. Louis, Mo.-! II.................................................. Carbondale, III...................................................... Champaign-Urbana, III........................................ Detroit, Mich........................................................ South Haven, Mich.............................................. Kalamazoo, Mich................................................. Milwaukee, Wis.................................................... Beloit, Wis............................................................. 9 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 9 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 9 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 8 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 8 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 12 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 8 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 12 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 8 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 12 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 West North C e n tral............................................... Thief River Falls, Minn....................................... Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn................................. Kansas City, Kans./Mo........................................ Salina, Kans.......................................................... Topeka, Kans....................................................... Wichita, Kans....................................................... Des Moines, Io w a ............................................... Ottumwa, Io w a .................................................. Waterloo, I o w a .................................................. Fargo-Moorhead, N.D.......................................... Sioux Falls, S.D.................................................... Watertown, S.D.................................................... Omaha, Nebr.-lowa ......................................... Lincoln, Nebr....................................................... Sidney, Nebr........................................................ 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 11 1 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 8 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 12 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 12 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 10 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 Southern S tates........................................................... 12 12 13 13 13 13 16 17 16 17 19 17 South Atlantic........................................................ Baltimore, Md...................................................... Winston-Salem, N.C.................................... .. . . Florence, S.C........................................................ Americus, Ga. .................................................. Atlanta, Ga........................................................... Miami, Fla............................................................. St. Petersburg, Fla............................................... 6 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 6 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 7 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 7 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 7 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 7 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 8 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 8 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 8 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 8 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 9 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 8 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 See footnotes at end of table. 29 MECHANICS Table 30. FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating), 1966-69—Continued Number of certificated programs (ratings)?./ Region and labor areal/ July 1, 1967 Aug. 1, 1966 A P C A P C July 15, 1968 Jan. 15, 1969 A A P C P C South Atlantic—Cont.: Daytona Beach, Fla............................................. Tallahassee, Fla.................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 East South C e n tra l............................................... Jackson, Miss........................................................ Ozark, Ala............................................................. Hamilton, Ala....................................................... 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 West South C e n tral............................................... Camden, Ark........................................................ New Orleans, La................................................... Lake Charles, La.................................................. Stillwater, Okla.................................................... Tulsa, Okla........................................................... Enid, Okla............................................................. Ft. Worth, Tex..................................................... Longview, Tex...................................................... 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 6 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 6 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 6 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 7 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Western States............................................................. 27 28 21 26 29 21 30 31 23 31 33 24 Mountain................................................................ Helena, Mont........................................................ Pocatello, Idaho .................................................. Denver, Colo........................................................ Las Vegas, Nev..................................................... Douglas, Ariz........................................................ Phoenix, Ariz............................................... Logan, U ta h ........................................................ Alamagordo, N.M................................................ Roswell, N.M........................................................ Cheyenne, Wyo.................................................... 5 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 7 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 7 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 6 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 7 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 8 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 7 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 P a c ific ................................................................... Moses Lake, Wash................................................ Tacoma, Wash...................................................... Spokane, Wash..................................................... Seattle, Wash........................................................ Eugene, Ore.......................................................... Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove,Calif. . . San Bernardino-Riverside-Ontario, Calif. . . . San Francisco-Oak land, Calif. ....................... Stockton, Calif..................................................... Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif........................... Fresno, Calif......................................................... Hollister, Calif...................................................... San Jose, Calif...................................................... San Diego, Calif................................................... Sacramento, Calif................................................ Fairbanks, Alaska............................................... Honolulu, H aw aii............................................... 22 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 3 1 5 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 22 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 3 1 5 r 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 17 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 5 2 4 1 1 1 0 1 21 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 3 1 5 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 23 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 3 1 5 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 17 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 23 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 4 1 5 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 24 1 1 1 1 1 17 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 24 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 1 5 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 25 1 1 1 2 1 0 2 4 1 5 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 17 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 4 1 5 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 Territories................................................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 San Juan, Puerto R i c o ......................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 -1/Regional distribution has been converted from F A A to Labor D epartm ent pattern. Labor areas are as defined by th e U.S. Depart m ent o f Labor, Manpower A dm inistration. ? /K e y to ratings: A — A irfram e mechanic; P — Powerplant mechanic; C — Combined A irfram e and Powerplant mechanic. S O U R C E : Derived fro m U.S. Dept, o f Tran spo rtatio n, Federal A viation A dm inistration, A dvisory Circulars, A C 14 7-2B , A C 1472C , A C 1 4 7 -2 D , and A C 14 7-2E . 30 Chapter IV. U.S. Department of Defense Pilots and Mechanics Civilian pilots In mid-1968 relatively few civilian pilots, 560 in all, were employed by the military services of the Depart ment of Defense. Sixty percent of these were working for the Army and the remainder for the Air Force. The Navy employs no civilian pilots. Available information on the Defense Department’s employment of civilian pilots for the period 1967 to 1970 is summarized in table 31. In these years, the total number employed was expected to vary only slightly and to remain close to the 600 level. Peak-1970 employment was estimated at 620, only 40 above peak 1967. The size of the civilian pilot force used by the Army and the Air Force is relatively stable, resulting from the distinctive characteristics of the programs to which they are assigned. The Air Force employs civilian pilots to staff reserve stations. These pilots are a cadre necessary to maintain the reserve stations in a state of readiness. They are civil servants working a regular work week on maintenance and administrative tasks. When reservists are present in force and the station is function ing in its training capacity, these civilian pilots, who are themselves reserve officers, form the nucleus of the reserve staff.31 The Army uses civilian pilots primarily as flight instructors to train military pilots, but they also function in other areas, e.g., for aerial mapping and for test flying planes which have been repaired. Many civilian pilots with the Army and Air Force have retired from military service. Many of them, about 60 percent, had not acquired FAA commercial pilot certifi cates, and less than 10 percent had qualified for FAA airline transport ratings. The three military services reported that, in mid1968, they had about 38,400 civilian aircraft mechanics on their payrolls, or more than a fourth of all the 144,200 civilian aircraft mechanics employed. This number represented an increase of 700 over 1967. Employment was expected to increase 1,100 more by 1969 but to drop sharply between 1969 and 1970. Peak 1970 civilian aircraft employment was estimated at 37,300, or 1,400 below peak 1967. The Navy and Air Force together accounted for nearly 98 percent of the 1968 employment. The largest group of aircraft mechanics, 60 percent of the total, was employed by the Air Force. Its plan to cut back its civilian aircraft mechanic employment, if carried out, would reduce the number by 2,500, from 23,000 at peak 1967 to 20,500 at peak 1970. The Navy, the second largest military employer of civilian aircraft mechanics with 38 percent of the total, and the Army, with about 2 percent, reported plans for increases in civilian aircraft mechanic employment between peak 1967 and peak 1970 totaling 1,250. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PILOTS AND MECHANICS T a b le 31 . C iv ilia n aviation , e m p lo y m e n t trends, b y service, 19 67-70 D a te A ll services A rm y N avy A ir F o rc e N u m b e r o f c iv ilia n p ilo ts e m p lo y e d S u m m e r o f: 1967 .......................... 570 330 0 240 1 9 6 8 .......................... 1 9 6 9 ( e s t . ) ............... 560 335 0 225 600 0 245 1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 620 355 355 0 260 330 355 360 0 0 250 265 260 Peak o f: 1 9 6 7 .......................... 1 9 6 8 ( e s t . ) ............... 580 620 1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 620 0 N u m b e r o f c iv ilia n a irc ra ft m echanics e m p lo y e d Civilian mechanics S u m m e r o f: Substantial numbers of civilian aircraft mechanics are employed by the Department of Defense. They are used by the military to provide continuity in repair and maintenance work, in addition to enlisted military aircraft mechanics. 31 Pilots are employed in a similar capacity by the Air and Army National Guard. 1 9 6 7 .......................... 1 9 6 8 .......................... 1 9 6 9 ( e s t . ) ............... 1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 3 7 ,7 0 0 3 8 ,4 0 0 3 9 ,5 0 0 3 7 ,3 0 0 700 850 970 1 ,1 0 0 1 4 ,0 0 0 1 4 ,6 5 0 1 5 ,8 8 0 1 5 ,7 0 0 2 3 ,0 0 0 2 2 ,9 0 0 2 2 ,6 5 0 2 0 ,5 0 0 3 8 ,7 0 0 4 0 ,0 0 0 3 7 ,3 0 0 840 900 1 ,1 0 0 1 4 ,7 1 0 1 5 ,6 0 0 1 5 ,7 0 0 2 3 ,1 5 0 2 3 ,5 0 0 Peak o f: 1 9 6 7 .......................... 1 9 6 8 ( e s t . ) ............... 1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 2 0 ,5 0 0 S O U R C E : N a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t to ta ls re p o rte d by A r m y , N a v y , A ir F o rc e in U S T E S survey. 31 Appendix A. Civil Aviation, Definitions of Industry Divisions and Sectors 1. A ir carriers The civil air carrier division of the industry consists of two sectors, each of which is considered separately in this study. Certificated route carriers include all scheduled and nonscheduled U.S. domestic and international airlines. These account for about 94 percent of all air carrier pilot and mechanic employment. Other carriers refers to supplemental air carriers which are authorized to perform passenger and cargo charter services supplementing the scheduled route air carriers, and commercial operators which operate on a private for-hire basis. 2. General aviation The definition of general aviation, as used in this study, differs from that of the Federal Aviation Administration. The term “ general aviation,” as defined by the FAA1 includes all nonmilitary or civilian flying except that performed by the interstate and intrastate air carriers operating large aircraft. General aviation flying, thus defined, embraces a wide range of diverse uses of aircraft, from the transportation of personnel and cargo by business firms in privately owned aircraft, to special uses such as for crop dusting, power and pipeline patrol, and aerial advertising, as well as private flying for pleasure. These activities have been classified by the FAA into four major categories: Business flying, which includes executive transportation and business transportation; instructional flying; commercial flying, which includes air taxi, aerial application, and industrial/ special flying; and personal flying. Since this study is concerned only with professional pilots and with aviation mechanics employed as such, personal flying and business transportation2 (as distinguished from executive transportation) have been eliminated from consideration and are not included in the figures for the general aviation division of the civil aviation industry. Included, moreover, are local, State, and nonmilitary Federal Government civilian flying activities which the FAA does not include in its general aviation category. The categories of general aviation which are within the scope of this study may be described as follows: Executive (corporate) transportation is any use of an aircraft by a corporation, company, or other organization for the purposes of transporting its employees and/or property, not for compensation or hire, and employing professional pilots for the operation of the aircraft. Air taxi transportation includes both scheduled and nonscheduled air taxi service, as well as contract service, and charter service. Aerial application is any use of an aircraft for work purposes which concern the production of food, fiber, and health control, in which the aircraft is used in lieu of farm implements or ground vehicles for the particular task accomplished. It includes the distribution of chemicals or seeds in agriculture, reforestation, and insect control. It excludes fire fighting operations. There are a 1 FAA, Economics Division, General Aviation - A Study and Forecast o f the F leet and its Use in 1975, July 1966. 2 Business transportation is defined by the FAA as any use o f an aircraft, not for compensation or hire, by an individual for the purposes o f transportation required by a business or profession in which he is engaged. A high proportion o f its fleet is made up o f small, single-engine aircraft which are used by individuals for transportation, much as an automobile might be, in conducting a business or providing a service. The business pilot is not a professional pilot, just as a man who drives a car in the course o f his business is not a chauffeur. 33 multitude of specific uses for aircraft in agriculture and forestry operations, such as insect and plant disease control, weed and brush control, control of animal pests, application of fertilizers and trace elements, defoliation, seeding, restocking of fish and other wild life, cloud seeding to induce precipitation or fog dispersal, and the production of air turbulence (mainly by the downdraft from helio blades) for frost prevention, drying fruit and athletic fields, harvesting ripe fruit and nuts, chasing birds from crops, etc. Industrial/special use includes specialized work allied with industrial activity, excluding transportation and aerial application. Examples are: pipeline and highway patrolling, aerial surveying, emergency and rescue operations, advertising, photography, helicopter hoist, fire fighting, etc. Instructional flying in general aviation includes any use of an aircraft for the purpose of formal instruction with the flight instructor aboard, or with the maneuvers on the particular flight(s) specified by the flight instructor. It excludes military and air carrier flight instruction but does include all other forms of civil private pilot training. Government, which the FAA does not include in general aviation but which is included in this report, covers State and local governments and Federal Government nonmilitary agencies such as the Coast Guard, the Federal Aviation Administration, the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and Interior, the Tennessee Valley Authority, etc. Included are such activities as traffic surveillance and forest protection programs, but not flight instruction at public institutions which is included under instructional flying. Repair stations are independent companies or firms engaged in the maintenance and repair of aircraft. Both certificated and noncertificated repair stations are included. Data for mechanics cover aircraft mechanics and aircraft repairmen. 3. U.S. Department o f Defense Included are the civilian flying and aircraft maintenance activities of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Appendix B. Manpower Administration U.S. Training and Employment Service Questionnaires and Instructions Including Descriptions of Occupations 35 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Employment Security Form is-552 ( 3 - 6 8 ) Budget Bureau No. 44-S68002 QUESTIONNAIRE ON PILOTS A N D AIRCRAFT MECHANICS - C I V I L AIR CARRIERS AIR TRANSPORTATION SURVEY 2. STATE CODE 1. DATE OF SURVEY 1 Month, day. year) 4. LABOR AREA NO. 3. STATE 5. LABOR AREA NAME 6. TYPE OF ACTIVITY ( Check one ) B. OTHER ( Specify ) A. CERTIFICATED ROUTE CARRIER 8. FIRM N O . 7. FLEET SIZE A. TOTAL ( Item* 7B-7E ) B. NO. SINGLE ENGINE C. NO. MULTI-ENGINE. PISTON D. NO. TURBO 9. FIRM SIC CODE E. NO. HELICOPTER 1 TO: C IV IL AIR CARRIERS L I J Fold) 1 0 .SELECTED O CCUPATIO NS ( If workers are not employed in either of these occupations, enter a zero.) | PILOTS || AIRCRAFT M E C H A N IC S 1 EXCLUDING FUGHT INSTRUCTORS ITEM TOTAL PILOTS LINE NO. TOTAL NUMBER (Cols. B & D ) A AGE 50 YEARS A N D OVER 02 ONE YEAR A G O 03 PEAK EMPL. IN 1967 04 ( Enter month in paren.) 05 TOTAL 10 LESS TH A N 1 M O N TH 11 ONE M O N T H OR MORE 12 ONE YEAR HENCE 20 PEAK EMPL. IN 1968 21 ( Enter month in aaren.) 23 HELICOPTER 24 30 40 C O M M E R C IA L 41 INSTRUMENT 42 FIXED-W ING ONLY 50 HELICOPTER ONLY 51 FIXED-W ING A N D HELIO 52 TOTAL PILOT HOURS IN PAST 12 M O NTH S 60 UFLOWN HIGHEST RATING HELD NUMBER TO BE TRAINED BY FIRM IN 1968 E F ELECTRI CIAN AIRPLANE ELEC TRONIC MECHANIC G H OTHER MECHANICS 1 fS B *s > r 'W W 'm ( ) s h e k N e l 1 \ NAME OF PERSON RECORDING THIS INFORMATION D C ( Cols. F -i) AIRCRAFT AND ENGINE MECHANICS ['' ( FIXED-W ING 36 TOTAL MECHANICS ) ( ) •" t . .T w * m m m m 22 AIRLINE TRANSPORT IIHOURS 1 < REPLACEMENT NEEDS IN 1968 PEAK EMPL. IN 1970 B FLIGHT IN STRUCTORS 01 CERTI FIED TO FLY TRAIN ING PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT CURRENT VACANCIES EMPLOYMENT CURRENT NUMBER WHO ARE FLIGHT ENGINEERS H M B S te . r ^ ’ - ♦ 4 * ' C O M M E N TS f Use reverse if additional space i J V- j TITLE V A... is required.) r p S . •#& U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Employment Security Form ES —553 ( 3-68 ) Budget Bureau No. 44-S68002 QUESTIONNAIRE ON PILOTS A N D AIRCRAFT MECHANICS -GENERAL A V IA T IO N AIR TRANSPORTATION SURVEY 1. DATE OF SURVEY ( Month, day. year) 2. STATE CODE 3. STATE D. AIR TAXI E. FLIGHT GROUND SCHOOLS 4. LABOR AREA NO. 5« LABOR AREA NAME 6. TYPE OF ACTIVITY (C heck one) A. BUSINESS B. AERIAL APPLICA TION C. INDUSTRY SPECIAL F. FEDERAL, STATE. AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT G. OTHER ( Specify ) 7. FLEET SIZE 8. FIRM NO . A. TOTAL I Item* 7B—7E ) TO: B. NO. SINGLE ENGINE C. NO. MULTI-ENGINE. PISTON D. NO.TURBO E. NO. HELICOPTER 9. FIRM SIC CODE 1 V~ GENERAL A V IA T IO N L 10. SELECTED OCCUPATIO NS LINE NO. ITEM TOTAL PILOTS TOTAL M E C H A N IC S A. CURRENT AGE 50 YEARS A N D O V E R ONE YEAR A G O 03 o PEAKEMPL. IN 1967 04 ( Enter month in paren.) 5 5 « 5z S* < 3 O o < > 1D Z REPLACEMENT NEEDS IN 1968 05 TOTAL 10 LESS TH A N 1 M O N T H 11 ONE M O N T H OR MORE 12 ONE YEAR HENCE 20 PEAK EMPL. IN 1968 21 ( Enter month in " O TRAIN ING ti So. « < i X “ ± 02 z 5 a. o UJ o FLOWN IIhours O Si i B 01 paren. ) PEAK EMPL. IN 1970 ) ( ( ) ( ) ) 22 FIXED-W ING 23 HELICOPTER 24 NUMBER TO BE TRAINED BY FIRM IN 1968 ( 30 AIRLINE TRANSPORT 40 C O M M ER C IA L 41 INSTRUMENT 42 FIXEb-W ING ONLY 50 HELICOPTER ONLY 51 FIXED-W ING A N D HELIO 52 TOTAL PILOT HOURS IN PAST 12 M O NTHS 60 NAME OF PERSON RECORDING THIS INFORMATION 37 Civil Air Carriers Questionnaire on Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics for Civil A ir Carriers and Instructions for Completion Except for items 1 and 7, all items in the heading of the questionnaire have been completed. Enter in item 1 the date the questionnaire is completed. Enter in item 7A (Fleet size) the total number of planes in your firm at the time of the survey. The entry for 7A should be the sum of items 7B through 7E. Include planes owned as well as those rented or leased from other firms. Please note: Firms owning planes for the purpose of renting or leasing to other firms should include only those planes in the firm which are not currently rented or leased. This distinction will avoid duplication in the overall count of planes. For the purpose of this survey, please assume the following conditions when completing the questionnaire. 1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs. 2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with no major setbacks for the next few years. 3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods, manpower requirements, and consumption patterns. 4. The present-day normal workweek at your firm will continue through the forecast periods. 5. Your current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule. 6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule. 7 . A irp ort fa c ilitie s w ill b e ad eq u a te. 8. No further significant change in the international situation. 9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate. 10. No further call-ups of air reservists. If your firm is engaged in more than one air-related activity such as an air taxi service, flight training, and operating an aircraft repair station, the data on the questionnaire should include all pilots and/or mechanics employed in all activities in all establishments of your firm. Include data for pilots and mechanics stationed in foreign countries who are citizens of the United States. Foil owing are instructions for entries on individual items in the body of the questionnaire. See pages 41-42 for descriptions of the occupations. If yoir have a copy of the Dictionary o f Occupational Titles (DOT) Volumes I and II, third edition, you may wish to refer to the codes given at the end of the descriptions on pages 41-42. 38 Columns A through I: Selected Occupations In making a count of the number of workers to be entered in columns A through I, include only those workers who spend more than one-half of their time in the specified occupations. See the section beginning on page 41 for descriptions of occupations. On all lines, the entries in column A should represent the sum of the entries in columns B and D, and the entries in column E should represent the sum of entries in columns F through I. 1. Employment a. Enter the current total employment in each of columns A through I. Current employment pertains to workers employed at some time during the week the survey is made. Current, Line 01. (1) b. In column A, enter the number of pilots and enter in column E the number of mechanics who are 50 years of age and over. A ge 5 0 years and over, Line 02. Year ago, Line 03. Enter in each of columns A through I the employment during the same week a year ago. c. Peak em ploym ent in 1967, Line 04. Enter in each of columns A through I the 1967 peak employment, and enter in columns A and E in the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak occurred. d. Replacement needs in 1968, Line 05. Enter in each of columns A through I, the estimated number of workers you expect to need for replacements in 1968. Estimates of replacement needs should be the number of expected job separations due to workers (1) promoted to another occupation, and (2) leaving the labor force for such reasons as death, retirement, disability or entering the Armed Forces. Do not include workers who will leave to seek or accept other jobs, or workers expected to separate from your firm because of reduction in force, inadequate performance on the job or misconduct. 2. Current Vacancies a. Total, Line 10. Enter for each of columns A through I the number of current unfilled job openings which are immediately available for filling by workers outside the firm and which the firm is actively seeking to fill. Include all part-time, permanent, and temporary vacancies. Exclude (1) jobs held for employees who will be recalled (2) jobs to be filled by transfer or demotion (3) jobs held for workers on paid or unpaid leave (4) jobs filled by overtime work which are not intended to be filled by new workers (5) job openings for which new workefs are already hired and scheduled to start work at a later date, and (6) jobs unoccupied because of a labor-management dispute. (1) Less than 1 month, Line 11. Enter in each of columns A and B, and D through I the number of job openings existing for less than 1 month. (2) One month or more, Line 12. Enter in each of columns A and B, and D through I the number of job openings existing for 1 month or more. If an exact count is not available, an estimate will suffice. Note: Entries for lines 11 and 12 should add to the totals entered in line 10. 39 3. Projected Employment a. One year hence, Line 20. Enter the estimated employment 1 year hence in each of columns A through I. b. Peak em ploym ent in 1968, Line 21. enter in each of columns A through I the estimated 1968 peak employment, and enter in columns A and E in parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak is expected to occur. c. Peak em ploym ent in 1970, Line 22. Enter in each of columns A through I the estimated 1970 peak employment. (1) Fixed-wing, Line 23. Enter in columns A through D the estimated employment of fixed-wing pilots during the peak month in 1970. (2) Helicopter, Line 24. Enter in columns A through D the estimated employment of helicopter pilots during the peak month in 1970. Note: Entries for lines 23 and 24 should add to the total entered in line 22. When making entries in lines 20, 21, and 22 please exercise care to insure that the employment data reflect total employment and not solely the additional workers needed. For example, if a firm has 100 pilots at the time of the survey and the number is estimated to increase by 20 in the following year, the total pilots 1 year hence should be reported as 120. 4. Training a. Num ber to be trained b y firm in 1968, Line 30. Enter in each of columns A through I the number of workers expected to complete formal company training programs for promotion to each of the specified occupations in 1968. Flight and ground schools should enter the number of trainees expected to graduate in 1968, and to be qualified for employment in the specified occupations described on pages 41-42. 5. Highest Rating Held a. Airline transport, Line 40. Enter in each of columns A through D the number of pilots who possess an airline transport rating. b. Commercial, Line 41. Enter in each of columns A through D the number of pilots whose highest rating is a commercial rating. Note: The total of entries in lines 40 and 41 may be equal to but cannot exceed the number of pilots in line 01. (1) Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots with commercial ratings in Line 41 who also hold instrument ratings. Instrument, Line 42. 6. Certified to Fly a. 40 Fixed-wing only, Line 50. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots certificated to fly only fixed-wing aircraft. b. Helicopter only , Line 5 L Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots certificated only to fly helicopters. c. Fixed-wing and helicopter, Line 52. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots certificated to fly both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft. Note: The total of entries in lines 50, 51, and 52 should equal the entry in line 01. 7. Hours Flown Total pilot hours flow n in past 12 months, Line 60. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the total number of hours flown by pilots in your firm in the 12 months preceding the survey week. If this is not available, an estimate will suffice. Comments Please supply any information which would be helpful in analyzing future needs for pilots and mechanics. Examples are plans for expansion of facilities, increase in size of plane fleet, or technological changes or trends which may, in your opinion, point to the need for training programs for additional pilots and mechanics or upgrading the skills of those already in those occupations. Also explain changes in the nature and extent of formal company training programs planned in future years, or difficulty in recruiting to fill existing job vacancies, particularly vacancies open 1 month or longer. Descriptions of Occupations Columns A, B, and D: Pilots Includes occupations concerned with piloting airplanes for the transportation of passengers, freight, and mail, and other purposes such as charting the courses of planes by the use of instruments, charts, celestial observation, and dead reckoning. Must be federally licensed. Includes occupations concerned with the supervision of flight operations and maintenance when a pilot’s or navigator’s license is required. Included are chief pilots, instructor pilots, check pilots, airline pilots, and executive pilots. (See Dictionary o f Occupational T itles-D O T codes 196.168, .268, .283, and 621.281.) Column C: Flight Engineer—Pilot Although an individual must be a certificated pilot, he must also meet the qualifications of a flight engineer as described below: Makes preflight, inflight, and postflight inspections, adjustments, and minor repairs to insure safe and efficient operation of aircraft. Inspects aircraft prior to takeoff for defects sufch as fuel or oil leaks and malfunction in electrical, hydraulic, or pressurization systems according to preflight checklist. Verifies passenger and cargo distribution, and amount of fuel to insure that weight and balance of specifications are met. Monitors control panel to verify aircraft performance, and regulates engine speed according to instructions of pilot (DOT code 621.281). 41 Column D: Flight Instructor Although an individual must be a certificated pilot, he must also meet the qualifications of a flight instructor as described below: Trains new and experienced company airline pilots in policy and use of equipment. Instructs new pilots in company regulations and procedures. Conducts courses for experienced company pilots to familiarize them with new equipment. May conduct review courses for pilots. Also includes instructor pilots employed by certificated flight schools (DOT code 196.228). Column F: Certificated Aircraft and Engine Mechanics Services, repairs, and overhauls aircraft and aircraft engines to insure airworthiness; repairs, replaces, and assembles parts, such as wings, fuselage, tail assembly, landing gear, control cables, propeller assembly, and fuel and air tanks, using tools, such as power shears, sheet metal breaker, arc and acetylene welding equipment, rivet gun, and air and electric drills to rebuild or replace airframes or its components. Consults manufacturers’ manuals and airlines’ maintenance manuals for specifica tions, and to determine feasibility of repair or replacement according to malfunction (DOT code 621.281). Column G: Certificated Airplane Electrician Monitors and repairs airplane electrical equipment, using handtools. Examines conduits for breaks and weak areas before or after removal from airplane and replaces defective segments. Rewires airplane and arranges wiring and conduits so they do not become entangled or otherwise interfere with fuel lines or other equipment. Inspects and tests function boxes. Tests, repairs, and replaces airplane lighting systems including wiring, running, and landing light. Does not repair airplane ignition systems (DOT code 825.381). Column H: Electronic Mechanics, as applied to Aviation Repairs electronic equipment such as radar systems, telemetering systems, transmitters, antennas, and servomechanics, following blueprints and manufacturers’ specifications, and using handtools and test instruments. Tests faulty equipment and applies knowledge of functional operation of electronic units and systems to diagnose cause of malfunction. Tests electronic components and circuits to locate defects, using instruments such as oscilloscopes, signal generators, ammeters, and voltmeters (DOT code 828.281). Column I: Other Mechanics Includes certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanics not specified in the questionnaire. Also includes mechanics engaged in comparable work who have received some training in one or more of the aviation mechanic specialties but who are not certificated. General Aviation Questionnaire on Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics for Firms in General Aviation and Instructions for Completion Except for items 1 and 7, all items in the heading of the questionnaire have been completed. Enter in item 1 the date the questionnaire is completed. Enter in item 7A (Fleet Size) the total number of 42 planes in your firm at the time of the survey. The entry for 7A should be the sum of items 7B through 7E. Include planes owned as well as those rented or leased from other firms. Please note: Firms owning planes for the purpose of renting or leasing to other establishments should include only those planes in the firm which are not currently rented or leased. This distinction will avoid duplication in the overall count of planes. For the purpose of this survey, please assume the following conditions when completing the questionnaire. 1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs. 2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with no major setbacks for the next few years. 3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods, manpower requirements, and consumption patterns. 4. The present-day normal workweek at your firm will continue through the forecast periods. 5. Your current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule. 6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule. 7. Airport facilities will be adequate. 8. No further significant change in the international situation. 9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate. 10. No further call-ups of air reservists. If your firm is engaged in more than one air-related activity such as an air taxi service, flight training, and operating an aircraft repair station, the data on the questionnaire should include all pilots and/or mechanics employed in all activities in all establishments of your firm. Include data for pilots and mechanics stationed in foreign countries who are citizens of the United States. Following are instructions for entries of individual items in the body of the questionnaire. See pages 46-47 for descriptions of the occupations. If you have a copy of the Dictionary o f Occupational Titles (DOT) Volumes I and II, third edition, you may wish to refer to the codes given at the end of the descriptions on pages 46-47. Selected Occupations In making a count of workers to be entered in columns A and B, include only those workers who spend more than one-half of their time in these occupations. See the section beginning on page 46 for descriptions of occupations. 43 1. Employment a. Enter the current total employment in each of columns A and B. Current employment pertains to workers employed at some time during the week the survey is made. Current, Line 01. (1) b. Enter the number of pilots and the number of mechanics who are 50 years of age and over. A ge 5 0 years and over, Line 02. Year ago, Line 03. Enter in each of columns A and B the employment during the same week a year ago. c. Peak em ploym ent in 1967, Line 04. Enter in each of columns A and B the 1967 peak employment and enter in the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak occurred. d. Replacem ent needs in 1968, Line 05. Enter in each of columns A and B, the estimated number of workers you expect to need for replacements in 1968. Estimates of replacement needs should be the number of expected job separations due to workers (1) promoted to another occupation, and (2) leaving the labor force for such reasons as death, retirement, disability or entering the Armed Forces. Do not include workers who will leave to seek or accept other jobs, or workers expected to separate from your firm because of reduction in force, inadequate performance on the job or misconduct. 2. Current Vacancies a. Total, Line 10. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of current unfilled job openings which are immediately available for filling by workers outside the firm and which the firm is actively seeking to fill. Include all part-time, permanent, and temporary vacancies. Exclude (1) jobs held for employees who will be recalled (2) jobs to be filled by transfer or demotion (3) jobs held for workers on paid or unpaid leave (4) jobs filled by overtime work which are not intended to be filled by new workers (5) job openings for which new workers are already hired and scheduled to start work at a later date, and (6) jobs unoccupied because of a labor-management dispute. (1) Less than 1 month, Line 11. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of job openings existing for less than 1 month. (2) One month or more, Line 12. Enter in each of columns A and B the number o f job openings existing for 1 month or more. If an exact count is not available, an estimate will suffice. Note: Entries for lines 11 and 12 should add to the totals entered in line 10, total number of vacancies. 3. Projected Employment a. One year hence, Line 20. Enter the estimated employment 1 year hence in each of columns A and B. b. 44 Enter the estimated 1968 peak employment and enter in the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak is expected to occur in each of columns A and B. Peak em ploym ent in 1968, Line 21. c. Peak em ploym ent in 1970, Line 22. Enter the estimated 1970 peak employment in each of columns A and B. (1) Fixed-wing , Line 23. Enter in column A the estimated employment of fixed-wing pilots during the peak month in 1970. (2) Helicopter, Line 24. Enter in column A the estimated employment of helicopter pilots during the peak month in 1970. Note: Entries for fines 23 and 24 should add to the total entered in fine 22. When making entries in fines 20, 21, and 22 please exercise care to insure that the employment data reflect total employment and not solely the additional workers needed. For example, if a firm has 100 pilots at the time of the survey and the number is estimated to increase by 20 in the following year, the total pilots 1 year hence should be reported as 120. 4. Training a. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of workers expected to complete formal company training programs for promotion to each of the specified occupations in 1968. Flight and ground schools should enter in each of columns A and B the number of trainees expected to graduate in 1968 and be qualified for employment in the specified occupations described on pages 41-42 of this attachment. Number to be trained b y firm in 1968, Line 30. 5. Highest Rating Held a. Airline transport, Line 40. b. Commercial, Line 41. Enter the number of pilots who possess an airline transport rating. Enter the number of pilots whose highest rating is a commercial rating. Note: The total of entries in fines 40 and 41 may be equal to but cannot exceed, the number of pilots in fine 01. (1) 6. Enter the number of pilots with commercial ratings in fine 41 who also hold instrument ratings. Instrument, Line 42. Certified to Fly a. Fixed-wing only, Line 50. Enter the number of pilots certificated to fly only fixed-wing aircraft. b. Helicopter only, Line 51. Enter the number of pilots certificated only to fly helicopters. c. Fixed-wing and helicopter, Line 52. Enter the number of pilots certificated to fly both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft. Note: The total of entries in lines 50, 51, and 52 should be equal to the entry in fine 01 . 45 7. Hours Flown Total pilot hours flow n in past month , Line 60. Enter the total number of hours flown by pilots in your firm in the 12 months preceding the survey week. If this is not available, an estimate will suffice. Comments Please supply any information which would be helpful in analyzing future needs for pilots and mechanics. Examples are plans for expansion of facilities, increase in size of plane fleet, or technological changes or trends which may, in your opinion, point to the need for training programs for additional pilots and mechanics or upgrading the skills of those already in those occupations. Also explain changes in the nature and extent of formal company training programs planned in future years, or difficulty in. recruiting to fill existing job vacancies, particularly vacancies open 1 month or longer. Descriptions of Occupations Pilots (Column A) Includes occupations concerned with piloting airplanes for the transportation of passengers, freight, mail, agricultural operations, photography, and other purposes such as charting the courses of planes by the use of instruments, charts, celestial observation, and dead reckoning. Must be federally licensed. Includes occupations concerned with the supervision of flight operations and maintenance when a pilot’s or navigator’s license is required. Included are chief pilots, instructor pilots, check pilots, airline pilots, and executive pilots. (See Dictionary o f Occupational T itles-D OT codes 196.168, .268, and .283.) Mechanics (Column B) 1. Flight Engineer Makes preflight, inflight, and postflight inspections, adjustments, and minor repairs to insure safe and efficient operation of aircraft. Inspects aircraft prior to takeoff for defects such as fuel or oil leaks and malfunction in electrical, hydraulic, or pressurization systems according to preflight checklist. Verifies passenger and cargo distribution, and amount of fuel to insure that weight and balance of specifications are met. Monitors control panel to verify aircraft performance, and regulates engine speed according to instructions of pilot (DOT code 621.281). 2. Certificated Aircraft and Engine Mechanics Services, repairs, and overhauls aircraft and aircraft engines to insure airworthiness; repairs, replaces, and assembles parts, such as wings, fuselage, tail assembly, landing gear, control cables, propeller assembly, and fuel and air tanks, using tools, such as power shears, sheet metal breaker, arc and acetylene welding equipment, rivet gun, and air and electric drills to rebuild or replace airframes of its components. Consults manufacturers’ manuals and airlines’ maintenance manuals for specifications, and to determine feasibility of repair or replacement according to malfunction (DOT code 621.281). 46 3. Certificated Airplane Electrician Monitors and repairs airplane electrical equipment, using handtools. Examines conduits for breaks and weak areas before or after removal from airplane and replaces defective segments. Rewires airplane and arranges wiring and conduits so they do not become entangled or otherwise interfere with fuel lines or other equipment. Inspects and tests function boxes. Tests, repairs, and replaces airplane lighting systems including wiring, running, and landing light. Does not repair airplane ignition systems (DOT code 825.381). 4. Electronic Mechanics, as applied to Aviation Repairs electronic equipment such as radar systems, telemetering systems, transmitters, antennas, and servomechanics, following blueprints and manufacturers’ specifications, and using handtools and test instruments. Tests faulty equipment and applies knowledge of functional operation of electronic units and systems to diagnose cause of malfunction. Tests electronic components and circuits to locate defects, using instruments such as oscilloscopes, signal generators, ammeters, and voltmeters (DOT code 828.281). 5. Other Mechanics Include certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanics not specified in the questionnaire. Also includes mechanics engaged in comparable work who have received some training in one or more of the aviation mechanic specialties but who are not certificated. Appendix C. USTES Survey Scope and Methodology The April, 1968 survey of pilots and mechanics in civil aviation conducted by the U.S. Training and Employment Service (USTES) and the affiliated State employment security agencies covered all civil air carriers, about 10 percent of the estimated number of firms in general aviation, and the three military services of the U.S. Department of Defense. Descriptions of industry divisions and sectors included appear in appendix A. Format of Survey Questionnaire The questionnaire used in the survey was developed with the assistance and concurrence of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Defense, the two agencies sponsoring the study. Space limitations on the questionnaire, and the effort to keep it as simple as possible, prevented the gathering of more detailed information. The questionnaire used to survey the civil air carriers differed slightly from that designed for general aviation firms. While “line item” totals were the same on both questionnaires, that for civil air carriers requested detailed information on various categories of pilots and mechanics. The questionnaire for general aviation firms requested information only on totals for pilots and mechanics. Copies of the two questionnaires and instructions for their completion are included in Appendix B. Survey Conducted by State Agencies The survey was by mail and was conducted by the local offices of the State employment security agencies affiliated with the U.S. Department of Labor’s Manpower Administration. Each State agency was furnished with lists of selected names and addresses of firms to be surveyed in its State. At least one followup by mail was made on every nonrespondent. Fund limitations restricted the number of personal followups that could be made as part of the study. Assumptions for Respondents Employers were asked to assume the following in making their projections of employment: 1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs. 2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with no major setbacks for the next few years. .3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods, manpower requirements, and consumption patterns. 4. The present-day normal work-week of the firm will continue through the forecast periods. 5. Current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule. 6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule. 7. Airport facilities will be adequate. 48 8. There will be no significant change in the international situation. 9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate. 10. There will be no further call-ups of air reservists. Complete listings of establishments to use as a basis for sample selection were not readily available in many of the individual air transportation categories. However, after exploration with industry associations and other sources in the various sectors, USTES staff developed a reasonably complete listing of employers upon which the survey sample was based. Listed below are the aviation categories covered in the survey and the sources of firm names used in drawing the sample for each category. Category Source Civil Air Carriers Certificated route air carriers Air Transport Association of America Other (supplemental, commercial and intrastate carriers) Federal Aviation Administration General Aviation Executive transportation National Business Aircraft Association Aerial application National Aerial Applicators Association, and State Aerial Applicator Associations Air taxi, pilot and mechanic schools, and FAA directories and the World Aviation Directory Industrial/special National Aerial Photographic Association, and firms indicating special activities on their questionnaires Government—Federal nondefense, State, and local National Association of Aviation Officials, and State employment security agencies. Coast Guard, FAA, TVA, Justice, Agriculture, and Interior. The remain ing Federal agencies indicated that very few or no pilots or mechanics were employed. Department of Defense Army, Navy, Air Force Cooperation Received The U.S. Training and Employment Service and the affiliated State agencies received fine cooperation and assistance from many sources in obtaining responses from surveyed establishments and firms. The General Aviation District Offices (GADOS) of the FAA contacted and obtained responses from a number of aerial application firms, flight and ground schools, and repair stations which had failed to respond initially. In addition, these GADOS provided the State agencies with information on FAA-certificated aviation schools in selected labor areas for use in preparing 49 statements assessing the current labor supply-demand and training situation for pilots and mechanics. The Air Transport Association of America, an organization of the scheduled airlines, encouraged all of its members in advance to complete and return the questionnaires. Moreover, the ATA supplied estimates of missing data on airline questionnaires and followed up on questionnaires from selected nonresponding airlines. Problems Encountered in the Survey The identification and survey of firms in the civil air carrier division presented relatively few problems because of the relatively small number of firms. Most air carriers are members of the Air Transport Association of America, and most are required to make reports to the Civil Aeronautics Board on their employment and operations. This was not true of the survey of general aviation firms, however. As a result of the problems encountered in covering this division of the industry, special procedures for the collection of data had to be developed. The assembly of sufficiently large lists of establishment names in each of the general aviation sectors from which to draw a 10-percent sample was a major problem. The lists of establishments available from membership rosters of various associations of aviation-oriented firms represented only a portion of the estimated total. For example, the membership directory of the National Business Aircraft Association contained less than 1,000 names—a total considerably lower than the estimated total number of firms using planes for transportation of business executives. Moreover, many membership lists included firms certificated by the FAA for two or more aviation activities. The FAA directories are limited to “ certificated” schools, air taxi firms, and aircraft repair stations. The identification of firms in the industrial/special category was particularly difficult as this activity was usually a sideline for many firms. Firms known as “ fixed base operators,” were also difficult to categorize for purposes of the survey since they engage in multiple aviation sendees. Finally, there was the problem of assuring adequate response due to: ( 1) the absence of any overall organization of these firms to encourage response; ( 2 ) the inclination of many firms to distrust the government’s motive in requesting the information; (3) the lack of incentive for many firms to complete the questionnaire because of their failure to appreciate the ultimate benefits of the study; and, finally, (4) the large turn-over among these firms, resulting iii no response from firms no longer in business. Establishment Response in Survey The overall establishment response rate for the survey was 53 percent, with civil air carriers showing a higher rate as follows: Civil A ir Carriers Number o f questionnaires1 S e n t ......................................................................... . . . Received ................................................................ . . . Percent r e s p o n s e ..................................................... Total 2 ,3 6 4 1,251 53 Total Certificated route carriers Other 88 55 63 42 34 81 46 21 46 General aviation 2 ,2 7 6 1 ,19 6 52 1 Excludes the three military services and 1 1 2 questionnaires received from various State and local government establishments in 4 0 States. The coverage of pilot and mechanic employment by certificated route air carriers was substantially higher than the 81 percent establishment response rate would indicate. The nonrespondents in the sector were mainly small carriers employing comparatively few pilots and mechanics. Adjustments to Survey Data The civil air carriers participating in the survey appeared to overestimate their short-term growth in pilots and mechanics. For example, the certificated route carriers indicated an increase of 8.2 percent in pilot employment between 1967 and 1968, or nearly double the actual increase of 4.5 percent subsequently reported by the Federal Aviation Administration. Accordingly, the survey data for 1968 were adjusted to show the actual rate of growth. Corresponding adjustments were made for other years on the assumption that the carriers also overestimated their prospective pilot employment growth. These adjustments affected projected gains between 1968 and 1969, and between peak employment in 1968 and peak employment in 1970. Appropriate adjustments were also made in the data for civil air carrier mechanics. However, no adjustments were made in the survey data for general aviation firms as no FAA “base employment” data were available for any year. Inflation of Survey Data to National Totals The 1967 and 1968 survey employment data for pilots and mechanics in civil air carrier firms were inflated to national totals on the basis of their relationship to the FAA figures for employment on certificate route air carriers for those years. Except for “hours flown by pilots,” the other items on the questionnaire were inflated by the same factor as used to inflate the 1968 employment. “ Hours flown” were inflated by the same factor used to inflate the 1967 employment, since this item was for “the past 12 months.” The survey employment data for general aviation firms were inflated to national totals by the ratio of the BLS employment estimates for 1967 to the survey employment data for 1967. (See U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Requirements fo r Pilots and Mechanics in Civil Aviation, 1 9 6 7 -7 7 , May 12, 1969). Interpretation of Questionnaire Data Peak E m ploym ent: Employers were asked for the month and level of peak employment for pilots and mechanics in 1967, 1968, and 1970. While the “ peak employment” figure for a single employer would be valid, the sum of these figures probably would overstate the peak employment for the Nation. This is due to the fact that the individual employer peak months were spread over the year. Training: Respondents were asked to report the number of persons expected to complete formal company training in 1968 for promotion to, or to qualify for, specified pilot and mechanic occupations in 1968. There were clear indications on many questionnaires that both employers and schools reported, instead, the number of employees or students in training. For this reason, these data are overstated. Editing the Questionnaires: In addition to checking for internal consistency and arithmetical balance, each general aviation questionnaire was reviewed to determine that the firm was classified in the category most representative of its major activity, i.e., air taxi, school, aerial applicator, etc., as many firms indicated more than one activity. Maintenance workers: The BLS and FAA data for civil air carrier mechanics include an estimated 3,000 maintenance workers, i.e., carpenters, electricians, etc., who work in air transportation establishments, but who are not considered aviation mechanics. The USTES survey data exclude these workers; they cover aircraft mechanics only. 51 Pant II Long-Range Manpower Requirements Contents Page Summary............................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter I. U.S. air carrier industry....................................................................................... Industry outlook .......................................................................................................... Employment trends....................................................................................................... Pilots..................................................................................................................... Mechanics..................................... Projected pilot and mechanic requirements .................................................................. Pilot requirements............................................................................................... Mechanic requirements ..................... 3 Chapter II. General aviation ............................................................................................... Outlook ....................................................................................................................... Pilot employment trends............................................................................................... Mechanic employment trends................ . .................................................................... Projected pilot and mechanic requirements.................................................................. Pilot requirements............................................................................................... Mechanic requirements....................................................................................... Chapter III. Government ..................................................................................................... Pilot employment trends................................................................................................ Mechanic employment trends.................................. Projected pilot and mechanic requirements.................................................................. Pilot requirements............................................................................................... Mechanic requirements....................................................................................... Chapter IV. Projection methods .......................................................................................... Pilot and mechanic employment requirements ............................................................. U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method A .................................................................. Average crews per aircraft .................................................................................. Pilots per c r e w ..................................................................................................... U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method B .................................................................. Revenue aircraft hours .......................................................... Average airborne s p e e d ..................................... Tim e.................................................................................................................... U.S. air carrier mechanic projection method ................................................................ Revenue aircraft hours ....................................................................................... Average airborne sp e e d ....................................................................................... Tim e.................................................................................................................... General aviation pilot and mechanic employment requirements ................................... General aviation pilot projection m e th o d .................. Current pilot employment ............................. General aviation aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft and flying activity, 1967,1972, and 1977 ....................................................................................................... General aviation pilot aircraft ratios..................................................................... General aviation mechanic projection method ............................................................. ii 3 5 5 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 17 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 22 22 22 24 24 26 26 28 28 28 29 29 29 Contents—Continued Page Government pilot and mechanic employment requirements.......................................... Pilot and mechanic replacement requirements ............................................................. U.S. air carrier pilot replacement needs............................................................... General aviation and government pilot replacement n e e d s.................................. U.S. air carrier, general aviation, and government mechanic replacement needs . . 33 34 34 35 39 Tables: 1 . Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. growth and from retirements and deaths, by sector of civil aviation, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 ..................... . ............................................................ 2 Employment of pilots and mechanics, by sector of civil aviation, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 ................................ 2 Scheduled and nonscheduled route air carrier activity, selected measures, 1950, 1955,1958-67 .................................................................................................... 3 Aircraft in certificated route air carrier operations, by type of aircraft, 1950,1955, 1958-67 Total employment and pilot and mechanic employment in certificated route air carriers, 1950,1955, 1958-67 ............................................................................. 5 Revenue passenger miles flown by scheduled route air carriers, by type of traffic, estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977 .................................................. 7 Total aircraft in the service of U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977 ............................................................................................................ 7 Employment of pilots and mechanics by U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements,1972 and 1977 Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, by U.S. air carriers, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 ....................................................................................................... 9 Revenue aircraft hours, by type of aircraft, U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977 10 Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1958-67 and forecast 1972 and 1977 Estimated hours flown in general aviation, by type of flying, 1950-67 and fiscal years 1972 and 1977 (thousands of h ou rs).......................................................... 13 Estimated distribution of general aviation aircraft, by type of flying, 1967 ........... 14 Active general aviation aircrafts, by type of aircraft, estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977 Estimated employment of pilots in general aviation, by type of flying, 1967 . . . . 15 Estimated mechanics employed in general aviation, by type of repair station, 1967 . 15 Projected requirements for general aviation pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 Employment of pilots and mechanics in general aviation, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements,1972 and 1977 iii 8 16 Contents—Continued Page Tables—Continued 19. Employment of pilots and mechanics in government, by type o f government, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 . . . . 20. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics in government resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 21. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1972 (method A) . . 22. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1977 (method A) . . 23. Data inputs for projecting requirements for U.S. route air carrier pilots (method B) and mechanics ............................................................................... 24. Selected results for regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for pilots in U.S. route air carriers (method B ) ........................................................ 25. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for mechanics in U.S. route air carriers .................................................................. 26. Ratio of mechanics to aircraft, U.S. route air carriers, 1953-67 ............................. 27. Preliminary and final estimates of the instructional flying aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977 28. Estimated general aviation aircraft fleet, by type of flying and type of aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977 ................................, .................................................. 29. Procedure for estimating executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying pilot/ aircraft ratios, by type of aircraft, 1967 .......................................................... 30. Estimated ratio of pilots to aircraft in general aviation, by type of aircraft and type of flying, 1967 .................................................................................................. 31. Average annual utilization of general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1964, and forecast to 1975 32. Procedure for projecting employment requirements for pilots in instructional flying, by type of aircraft, 1972 and 1977 ........................................................ 33. Procedure for estimating general aviation pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-72 and 1973-77 ............................................ 34. Procedure for estimating government pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 35. Estimated general aviation pilot retirements and deaths, by type of flying, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 36. Procedure for estimating U.S. air carrier mechanic retirement and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................ 37. Procedure for estimating general aviation mechanic retirement and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................ 38. Procedure for estimating government mechanic retirements and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................ IV IB 18 20 20 24 24 26 28 29 31 32 32 33 34 36 36 37 37 38 38 Contents—Continued Page Charts: 1. Domestic intercity passenger miles, selected carriers, 1950-66 ................................ 2. Employment in U.S. certificated route air carriers, and selected industry groups, 1950-67 3. Employment of pilots by U.S. route air carriers, 1950-66, and projected employ ment requirements, 1972 and 1977 (method A) ............................................... 4. Pilot monthly pay hours and flight hours, experience of a major U.S. air carrier, 1957-66, and BLS projections, 1972 and 1977 .................................................. 5. Employment of pilots in U.S. route air carriers, actual 1953-66, and calculated 1953-66,1972, and 1977 (method B) ............................................................... 6. Employment of mechanics in U.S. route air carriers, actual 1953-66, and calculated 1953-66,1972, and 1977 v 4 6 21 23 25 27 Summary During the past two decades, airplane pilots and mechanics have been among the Nation’s fastest growing occupations. In 1967, nearly 60,000 pilots and 103,500 mechanics were employed by the civil aviation industry. A continuation o f this rapid employment expansion is expected during the 1967-77 period. The purpose of this study was to anticipate future needs and to establish, where data permitted, a sound procedure for estimating future requirements for these highly trained workers. The projections presented in this study are based on the levels of aviation activity forecast by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).1 Therefore, in evaluat ing the estimates of future manpower requirements, the assumptions underlying the FAA forecasts should be borne in mind. FAA defines the essential elements supporting its forecasts as: A continuing high rate o f growth in the economy as measured by GNP and the assumption that the passenger fare structure will continue to decline. Gross national product is forecast at an average real growth rate o f 4 .2 5 percent, and average fares are forecast to decline, in real terms, between 2 and 3 percent per year.2 The FAA projections of aviation activity also were developed under the implicit assumption that the Viet Nam hostilities would not continue into the 1970’s. Expansion of employment in civil aviation is ex pected to be very rapid during the 1967-77 decade. Growth o f the U.S. air carrier sector of civil aviation will be stimulated primarily by the rising transportation needs of the Nation’s growing population, coupled with a continuing shift to air travel at the expense of other modes of commercial transportation. General aviation activity will continue to expand, spurred by population growth, rising personal and business incomes, and increased leisure time. Convenience and competitive advantage will attract more and more business firms to operate their own aircraft. The rising need for fast, convenient transportation service from airport to down town business centers or other airports and between smaller urban areas will increase the need for air-taxi service. Growth in activities such as crop dusting, pipeline patrolling, and the use of aircraft in certain construction activities also will contribute to the growth of general aviation. In Federal, State and local govern ments, flying activities will continue to expand slowly, as aircraft are used increasingly in activity such as traffic surveillance, forest conservation protection programs, and flight instruction at public institutions. The expansion of all civil aviation activities depends on the availability of qualified airplane pilots and mechanics. Requirements for pilots in civil aviation, resulting from both occupational employment growth and replacement needs, are expected to be approxi mately 60,000 through the decade ending in 1977. (See table 1.) More than 82 percent of total employment requirements, or about 50,000 workers, will result from growth as pilot employment requirements increase from an estimated 60,000 in 1967 to a projected 110,000 by 1977. (See table 2.) Approximately three-fifths, or about 37,000 of all pilot requirements will be needed during the 1973-77 period. The general aviation sector of the industry alone will require over 36,000 new pilots over the decade, with more than half of these needs occurring in the last half of the projection period. Total requirements for aircraft mechanics throughout civil aviation are expected to number 75,000, and most of these requirements will result from occupational growth as mechanic employment needs increase sharply from approximately 104,000 to 164,000 between 1967 and 1977. Unlike the situation for pilots, however, the need for mechanics is divided more equally between the first and second half of the projection period. Of the 75,000 new mechanics that will be needed, two-thirds, or 50,000, will be employed in general aviation. 1 New air carrier forecasts to 1 9 7 9 have been released recently by the FAA. Although direct comparisons for the target year 1 9 7 7 cannot be made, indications are that several key variables (e.g., number o f aircraft hours flown) may be some what higher in the more recent report. Consequently, the projections o f pilot and mechanic requirements presented in this report may be understated, particularly in a specific flying activity, such as instructional flying, to the extent that the FAA forecasts for 1 9 7 7 have been revised. Overall, however, such changes should not change substantially the future pilot and mechanic employment requirements shown in this report. 2A viation F orecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Avia tion Administration, January 1 9 6 7 ), p. 3. N o te: The Federal Aviation Administration designation has changed recently from the Federal Aviation Agency. The title Federal Aviation Administration is used in this study to apply to both designations. 1 K) Table 1. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, by sector of civil aviation, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Projected requirements Occupation and civil aviation sector 1968-77 1968-72 1973-77 Average annual requirements 1968-77 Total requirements Growth Replacements Total requirements Growth Replacements Total requirements Growth Replacements P ilo ts .......................... Air carriers............ General aviation . . Government . . . . 60,200 22,800 36,200 1,200 49,600 18,000 30,700 900 10,600 4,800 5,500 300 23,400 6,500 16,300 600 19,600 5,000 14,100 500 3,900 1,500 2,200 200 36,800 16,300 19,900 600 30,100 13,000 16,600 500 6,800 3,300 3,300 200 6,000 2,300 3,600 100 Mechanics................. Air carriers............ General aviation . . Government . . . . 75,000 24,700 50,200 100 60,400 18,000 42,400 — 14,600 6,700 7,800 100 37,200 12,100 25,000 100 30,700 9,000 21,700 — 6,500 3,100 3,300 100 37,900 12,600 25,200 100 29,700 9,000 20,700 — 8,200 3,600 4,500 100 7,500 2,500 5,000 (1/) -1/Less than 50. -2/Employment estimates in this bulletin are for 1967; projected requirements reflect the 1968 to 1977 period. N O T E : Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding. S O U R C E : Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 2. Employment o f pilots and mechanics, by sector of civil aviation, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 Occupation and civil aviation sector Estimated 1967 employment Employment requirements Net growth 1972 1977 Total 1968-77 1968-72 1973-77 P ilo ts.......................................................................................................................................... Air c a rrie r..................................................................................................................... General aviation............................................................................................................. Government!/................................................................................................................ 60,100 33,100 25,000 2,000 79,700 38,100 39,200 2,400 109,700 51,100 55,700 2,900 49,600 18,000 30,700 900 19,600 5,000 14,100 500 30,100 13,000 16,600 500 Mechanics................................................................................................................................. Air c a rrie r...................................................................................................................... General aviation............................................................................................................. Government!/....................................................................................................... .. 103,500 52,000 50,400 1,100 134,200 61,000 72,100 1,100 163,900 70,000 92,800 1,100 60,400 18,000 42,400 — 30,700 9,000 21,700 29,700 9,000 20,700 ^ E x c lu d e s all civilian pilots and mechanics employed by U.S. Departm ent of Defense as well as m ilitary personnel. N O T E : Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding. S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Chapter I. U.S. Air Carrier Industry3 The U.S. air carrier industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the United States. As illustrated in chart 1, the number of domestic intercity passenger miles flown by scheduled air carriers has grown at a tremendous pace during the 1950’s and 1960’s. Com mercial motor carrier passenger miles declined from 1951 through 1959, then moved upward through 1966 but did not exceed the 1951 level. Since 1951, intercity passenger miles traveled by railroads have declined.4 As table 3 indicates, only 10.3 billion revenue passenger miles (including domestic and international) were flown by air carriers in 1950; yet, by the end of the decade this number had nearly quadrupled, reaching 37.8 billion in 1959. The rapid rise in passenger traffic continued unabated into the present decade, and by 1967 revenue passenger miles topped 111.8 billion. Other indicators of airline activity showed similar increases. Between 1950 and 1967, revenue ton-miles grew from 1.4 billion in 1950 to 15.7 billion; revenue passenger originations jumped from 19.5 million to 135.4 million.5 Although employment has increased at a rapid pace, the growth in the volume of air carrier traffic has been much greater. This faster growth in traffic has been possible because of rapid productivity gains in the industry. Improvements in aircraft and a myriad of other innovations, ranging from improved baggage handling techniques to the introduction of computerized reserva tion procedures, have produced a rapid rise in output per man-hour. According to a recent BLS study, “ output per employee indexes for the air transportation industry have increased at a rate of almost 8 percent a year since 1947, the highest rate for any major industry. As a result of this rate of gain, productivity levels in 1966 were five times greater than in 1947. By contrast, output per worker in the total private economy during the same period increased at an annual average rate of only 2.8 percent.” 6 The growth in traffic, however, increased faster than the gains in productivity and resulted in the rapid growth of employment levels experienced by the industry during the past two decades. Table 3. Scheduled and nonscheduled route air carrier activity, selected measures, 1950,1955,1958-67 The U.S. air carrier industry, as covered in this report, includes (1 ) scheduled and nonscheduled domestic and inter national route airlines, (2 ) supplemental air carriers authorized to perform passenger and cargo charter service, and (3 ) commer cial-operator air carriers that do business on a private for-hire basis. 4 Since employment and traffic data are incomplete for supplemental and commercial-operator air carriers, the discus sion o f past trends is limited to the (scheduled and non scheduled) route air carriers. However, in the discussion o f projected employment requirements, the needs o f all U.S. certified air carriers, including the supplemental and commercial operators, are taken into account. 5 FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1 9 5 8 through 1 9 6 7 Editions, (Federal Aviation Administration). 6 Joseph E. Dragonette and Chester Myslicki, “Air Trans port: Trends in Output Per Em ployee,” M onthly Labor Review (U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, February 1 9 6 8 ), pp. 13-16. 1Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Avia tion Administration, January 1 9 6 7 ), p. 20. 8 Dragonette and Myslicki, op. cit., p. 16. [In thousands of miles flow n] Year Revenue passenger miles Revenue cargo ton-miles Revenue ton-miles 1,3 9 7,6 70 Revenue aircraft miles 4 88 ,22 7 1950 ................. 10,3 43 ,00 0 380 ,38 5 1955 ................. 2 4 ,7 32 ,50 2 6 82 ,88 5 3 ,0 8 7,8 08 8 0 0 ,4 9 9 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. 3 2,9 67 ,54 9 3 7,7 82 ,16 2 4 0 ,0 4 9 ,6 4 3 4 1,7 91 ,65 5 4 6,2 69 ,85 7 5 3 ,2 1 6 ,4 6 9 6 1,7 98 ,66 8 7 3,2 1 5 ,9 5 4 8 8 ,1 4 2 ,7 4 0 111 ,77 8,5 20 9 5 1 ,57 8 1,1 0 4,4 24 1,1 7 3,8 16 1,372,831 1,780,437 1,7 5 6,2 72 2 ,0 5 8,0 97 2,807,221 3 ,8 6 2 ,7 7 4 4 ,1 2 0 ,2 2 8 4 ,7 3 4 ,0 9 3 5 ,0 2 4 ,2 8 3 5,394,631 6,238,261 6 ,8 6 0 ,3 0 2 8 ,0 1 5 ,9 4 2 9 3 9 4 ,9 8 3 1 2 ,4 4 0 3 5 5 1 5,6 83 ,23 6 1,0 2 2,0 44 1,081,678 1,040,058 1,0 1 7,0 90 1,0 7 4,0 44 1 ,1 4 3 3 9 0 1,239,127 1 ,418,373 1,602,785 2 ,0 0 9,0 32 4 ,7 6 0 ,3 8 2 S O U RCE : 1950: BLS Estimates Based on H a nd b oo k o f A irlin e S tatistics, 1965 Edition, (Civil Aeronautics Board). 1955, 1958-64: H a nd b oo k o f A irlin e S tatistics, 1965 Edition, (Civil Aeronautics Board), p. 129. 1965-66: F A A S ta tis tic a l H a nd b oo k Of Aviation, 1967 Edition (Federal Aviation Adm inistration), pp. 160-161. 1967: Unpublished Data from the Federal Aviation Adm inistration. Industry outlook During the 1967-77 decade, the Nation’s air carriers are expected to undergo further expansion. In 1977, scheduled route air carriers are expected to fly a total of 266 billion revenue passenger miles, compared with an estimated 87.5 billion in 1967, an increase of 204 percent. (See table 6.) This growth represents an annual increase of nearly 12 percent, almost equal to the annual rate of growth experienced during the 1950-67 period, but substantially lower than the average growth of 20 percent reported for 1964-67.7 Increases in air freight volume are anticipated to be even greater. Freight and express revenue ton-miles accounted for only 11 percent of total revenue ton-miles in 1947, yet by 1966, it had increased to about 25 percent.8 Even faster growth is expected in the coming decade with the advent of aircraft specially designed to carry cargo. Such aircraft will make possible faster service at reduced rates, which will attract additional customers. Because of larger, more q 3 CHART 1 BILLIONS OF MILES DOMESTIC INTERCITY PASSENGER-MILES, SELECTED CARRIERS, 1 9 5 0 -6 6 SOURCES: FAA STATISTICAL HANDBOOK OF AVIATION, (FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION), 1962 AND 1967 EDITIONS. 4 Table 4. Aircraft in certificated route air carrier operations, by type of aircraft, 1950,1955,1958-67 A ircraft type Year Fleet size Piston T urboprop 1950 . . 1,179 1,168 1955 . . 1,480 1,453 8 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 . . . . . . . . . . 1,895 1,850 1,867 1,877 1,831 1,832 1,863 1,896 2,027 2 ,188 1,777 1,530 1,413 1,282 1,164 1,136 1,026 867 676 460 90 2 13 227 257 251 2 50 2 59 2 96 3 52 414 . . . . . . . . . . Turbojet Helicopter 11 -- 19 6 84 2 02 3 19 3 96 426 5 58 712 9 78 1,292 22 23 25 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 S O U R C E : 1950: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, I9 6 0 edition, op. cit. 1955: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1 96 3 edition, op. cit., table 7 .3 , p. 8 3. 1 95 8-19 6 6: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1967 edition, op. cit., table 7.8, p. 83. 1967: Facts and Figures, 1968 (A ir Transport Association of America, Washington, D .C .), p. 38 powerful aircraft that are now in the development and testing stages, all indications point toward a substantial increase in air-freight activity during the next decade. The size and composition of the aircraft fleet are expected to change substantially during the next decade. According to FAA estimates, the number of aircraft operated by U.S. air carriers will grow from an estimated 2,337 in 1967 to 3,500 in 1977. (See table 7.) The growing volume in both passengers and freight will increase aircraft requirements. During the past decade, fleet size has remained relatively stable, as the increases in passenger and freight volume largely were absorbed through the transition to larger capacity and faster aircraft. Between 1958 and 1964, the number of aircraft in operation remained approximately the same, yet available seat miles doubled from 55 billion to 110 billion and revenue cargo ton-miles more than doubled from about 1 billion to slightly over 2 billion. (See table 3.) Future increases in aircraft capacity and speed will be more than offset by the growth expected in passenger and freight volume and will result in an increase in the fleet size and change in its composition. (See table 7.) The number of aircraft operated by route air carriers also has grown but at a far slower pace; this figure increased from 1,179 in 1950 to 2,188 in 1967. (See table 4.) The rapid growth in traffic unaccompanied by a corresponding increase in fleet size was possible because of the transition from the piston powered aircraft of the early 1950’s to turboprop and turbojet aircraft which are larger and faster. Turbine powered aircraft were utilized for the first time in the air carrier service in 9 For the purpose o f this study, pilots are defined as all cockpit personnel including pilots, copilots, flight engineers, and navigators. 1955. The first pure jets, or turbojets, were put into service in 1958. By 1967, turbine powered aircraft made up over three-fourths of the route air carrier fleet; turbojets alone accounted for nearly three-fifths of all aircraft. Employment trends Pilots. In response to the rapid increase in the demand for air travel, employment in the U.S. air carrier industry also has undergone a dramatic increase. As table 5 shows, only 86,000 workers were employed by certifi cated route air carriers in 1950. Throughout the 1950’s employment increased steadily as the volume of pas senger traffic moved upward. By 1960, employment had reached 167,300 workers, an increase of 95 percent during the decade. Employment continued to expand during the early 1960’s and by 1967 reached a high of 276,000 workers. Between 1950 and 1967, employment in the route airlines increased 221 percent, far out stripping the growth rate reported in nearly every major industry. During the same period, employment in manufactur ing increased only 27 percent; finance, insurance, and real estate, 68 percent; and transportation and public utilities, 6 percent. (See chart 2.) In 1967, about 31,000 pilots9 were employed by U.S. certificated route air carriers, and another 2,000 were estimated to be employed by suplemental and commercial operator air carriers. (See table 8.) The number of pilots employed by certificated route air Table 5. Total employment and pilot and mechanic employment in certificated route air carriers, 1 9 50,1 955 ,195 8-67 Y ea r T o ta l air carrier e m p lo y m e n t P ilo ts l/ Mechanics*^/ 2 0 ,5 0 0 1950 .......................................... 8 5 ,9 0 0 9 ,5 0 0 1955 .......................................... 1 2 6 ,9 0 0 1 4 ,6 0 0 3 0 ,4 0 0 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1 96 7 .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... .......................................... 1 5 2 ,1 0 0 1 6 5 ,5 0 0 1 6 7 ,3 0 0 1 69 ,94 1 1 7 2 ,8 2 7 1 7 8 ,8 8 7 1 9 1 ,8 1 8 2 1 0 ,7 9 5 2 4 3 ,7 0 1 2 7 6 ,0 2 3 1 7 ,6 0 0 1 8 ,8 0 0 3 0 ,8 0 0 3 2 ,8 0 0 3 4 ,5 0 0 3 4 ,0 6 5 3 4 ,9 2 5 3 4 ,4 5 3 3 9 ,3 6 0 4 1 ,6 6 7 4 5 ,3 2 7 5 0 ,0 1 6 1 7 ,5 0 0 1 8 ,0 9 8 17,971 1 8 ,3 1 0 19,551 2 1 ,9 7 2 2 7 ,8 0 7 3 0 ,9 5 6 -l/ln c lu d e pilots, copilots, flig h t engineers, and navigators. ^ In c lu d e s small num ber o f o ther m aintenance w orkers, such as carpenters and electricians, th a t are included in Federal A viatio n A d m in istratio n statistics covering mechanics. S O U R C E : 1 9 5 0 , 1 9 5 5 , 1 9 5 8 -6 0 : Employment Requirements and Changing Occupational Structure in Civil Aviation, (B LS Bulletin 1 3 6 7 , June 1 9 6 4 ), table 8 , p. 18. 1 9 6 1 -6 6 : FA A Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, op. c it., 1 9 6 2 -6 7 Editions. 1 9 6 7 : Facts and Figures, 1968, op. c it., p. 4 0 . 5 CHART 2 EMPLOYMENT IN U.S. CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, A N D SELECTED INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1 9 5 0 -6 7 INDEX (1 9 5 0 = 100) SOURCE: AIR CARRIER EMPLOYMENT - FAA STATISTICAL HANDBOOK OF AVIATION, op. cit., 1958 THROUGH 1967 EDITIONS. OTHER INDUSTRIES - EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS STATISTICS FOR THE UNITED STATES 1909-68, (BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, AUGUST 1968). 6 Table 6. Revenue passenger miles flown by scheduled route air carriers, by type of traffic, estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977 Estimated 1967 Type o f traffic Revenue passenger miles (billions) 1972 Projected 1977 Percent increase 1967-77 204 . . 8 7 .5 149.0 2 6 6 .0 D o m e stic ........................................ 66.1 112.0 2 00 .0 2 03 In te rn a tio n a l................................. 2 1.4 3 7.0 6 6.0 208 S O U R C E : A v ia tio n Forecast Fiscal Years 1967-1977, (F e d e ra l A v ia tio n A d m in is tr a tio n , J a n u a ry 1 9 6 7 ,) ta b le 1, p. 2 0 . carriers has grown substantially during the 1950’s and 1960’s. As shown in table 5, fewer than 10,000 pilots were employed by these air carriers in 1950. During the 1950’s, employment grew rapidly and reached nearly 19,000 by 1959. Little change in pilot employment occurred during the early 1960’s. However, since 1964, the number of pilots employed by certificated route air carriers has grown by over 58 percent, increasing from 19,600 in 1964 to nearly 31,000 in 1967. Pilots employed by supplemental and commercial operator air carriers increased from fewer than an estimated 1,000 in 1950 to about 2,200 in 1967. In general, pilot employment has grown in response to an acceleration in the demand for air transportation services. However, although measures of output, such as revenue passenger miles flown or revenue ton-miles flown, have increased at a fairly constant rate since 1950, pilot employment has grown in a more irregular manner. These varying trends result primarily from factors influencing pilot productivity. Overall, pilot productivity increased dramatically during the 1950’s and 1960’s. Revenue passenger miles flown grew tenfold during this period, whereas pilot employment only tripled. These gains in productivity resulted primarily from the introduction of larger and faster aircraft. Table 7. Total aircraft in the service of U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977 A ircraft type Estimated 1967 Projected 1972 1977 Percent change 1967-77 Total a irc ra ft....................... 2,337 2,875 3 ,500 + 50 Fixed wing a ir c r a f t .............................. 2,315 2,847 3,4 7 0 + 50 J e t.................................................. 1,044 2 ,1 9 4 2 ,9 2 3 +180 T u rb o p r o p ................................. 396 4 02 488 + 23 P is to n ........................................... 8 75 251 59 - H e lic o p te r .............................................. 22 28 30 + 36 93 Between 1958 and 1963, the shift toward jet-powered aircraft was largely responsible for a 61 percent increase in revenue passenger miles flown, but pilot employment did not increase. Over the long run, however, growth in traffic volume has more than offset productivity gains and the net effect has been a rise in the requirement for pilots. During the past 3 years (1965-67), increases in traffic volume have far outstripped productivity gains, and pilot employment has grown at an unprecedented pace. (See table 5.) The increase in pilot employment was 2,400 in 1965,5,800 in 1966, and 3,100 in 1967, or an average increase of 3,800 a year for the period. Although a number of factors, such as increased training and retraining and pilot stockpiling, played a role in this rapid rise, the primary determinant was the unprece dented growth in air carrier traffic. M echanics, In 1967, the Nation’s air carriers em ployed 52,000 mechanics, certified route air carriers employed about 50,000, and supplemental and commer cial operator air carriers employed an estimated 2,000. (See table 8.) During the 1950’s and 1960’s, the number of mechanics employed by certificated route air carriers increased rapidly, though at a somewhat slower pace than the employment of pilots. (See table 5.) Mechanic employment by these carriers rose from 20,500 in 1950 to 50,000 by 1967, an increase of 144 percent. Employment of these workers increased nearly every year during this period; the most rapid growth occurred during the 1960’s, especially since 1963. To a large extent, the mechanic work force has expanded to meet the growing maintenance needs of a larger, more sophisticated aircraft and an expanded aircraft fleet. In 1950, only 1,179 piston aircraft were operated by route air carriers (table 4). Many of these aircraft were relatively small, such as the DC-3. By 1967, the number of aircraft owned and operated by the Nation’s certificated route air carriers had grown to 2,188—larger turbojet aircraft accounted for nearly three-fifths of these. Several new types of aircraft will be introduced during the decade. The first “jumbo” jets (Boeing 747) were scheduled to enter service in late 1969 and will account for an important part of the total fleet by 1977. The smaller 2-engine jets already in operation also will grow in number as more are put into service on intermediate and short distance routes.10 According to N O T E : T o ta l a irc ra ft in service d iffe rs fro m a irc ra ft in c e rtific a tio n ro u te air car rie r o p e ra tio n s (ta b le 4 o f th is re p o rt) in th a t it includes a irc ra ft o p e ra te d b y supple m e n ta l an d c o m m e rc ia l o p e ra to r a ir carriers. S O U R C E : F A A A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal A d m in is tra tio n , J a n u ary 1 9 6 7 ) ta b le 3 , p . 2 2 . Years 1967-1977, (F e d e ra l A v ia tio n IQAviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Avia tion Administration, January 1967), table 3, p. 22. 7 Table 8. Employment of pilots and mechanics by U.S. air carriers,, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 Occupation Estimated 1967 em ploym ent Projected requirements 1972 1977 Percent increase, 1967-77 P ilo t s ........................................ 3 3 ,1 0 0 3 8 ,1 0 0 5 1 ,1 0 0 54 M e c h a n ic s .............................. 5 2 ,0 0 0 6 1 ,0 0 0 7 0 ,0 0 0 35 NO TE: Percents besed o n unrounded num bers. SOURCE: Bureau o f Lab o r Statistics. FAA, the first supersonic transport, the “Concorde,” will begin operations in 1972, with the American SST joining the air carrier fleet in 1975. The introduction of these aircraft will be a continuation of the historical trend toward larger and faster aircraft. By 1977, the FAA estimates that 86 SST’s will be in operation; undoubtedly most will be used in transoceanic flights. As the size and speed of aircraft increased, the need for more sophisticated instrumentation and increasingly complex guidance, communication, and control systems also increased. These and other technological advances in aircraft design added substantially to maintenance re quirements, especially for electronics and instrument repairmen. Some technological innovations partially offset the increases in maintenance requirements during the 1950’s and 1960’s. Turbine engines required less maintenance than the piston engines they replaced. Increases in the reliability of airframes, communication systems, and many other aircraft parts made possible by new mate rials, such as plastics and new alloys as well as improvements in component design, also have reduced maintenance needs. The development of modem test equipment and advances in tool design also reduced maintenance requirements. Overall, such advances increased the productivity* of the maintenance work force and tended to moderate the growth in mainte nance manpower requirements. Projected pilot and mechanic requirements Total pilot and mechanic requirements of the Nation’s air carriers for 1972 and 1977 were made within the framework o f the air carrier activity and fleet forecasts developed by the FAA in its 1967 report, A v ia tio n F orecasts F iscal Years 1 9 6 7 -1 9 7 7 . In preparing these projections, a variety of methods were tested. For a complete discussion of the methods selected for use in developing the projections of employment requirements 8 and the procedures followed in determining replacement needs, see chapter IV, Projection Methods. P ilo t requirem ents. A total of about 23,000 addi tional pilots will be needed by the Nation’s air carriers between 1967 and 1977. Nearly four-fifths of the new requirements will result from occupational growth. (See table 9.) Between 1967 and 1977, pilot requirements resulting from growth of the occupation are expected to rise 18,000, from 33,000 to 51,000, an increase of 54 percent (See table 8.) By comparison, during the 1958-67 decade, pilot employment increased 13,000, about one-fourth less than the projected growth over the decade ahead. However, the 1967-77 rate o f increase implied by this projection is only 54 percent, compared with the 76-percent increase of the 1958-67 decade. A large share (over 11,000) of this past employment growth occurred in 3 years, 1965-67. Except for this period, the rate of increase was far less than that projected for the 1967-77 decade. In addition to occupational growth requirements, 4,800 new pilots will be needed over the next decade as replacements. Based on age data from FAA airmenmedical records and unpublished data obtained from the Air Transport Association, 1 out of every 7 pilots currently employed by the air carriers can be expected to retire or die from 1968 through 1977. These relatively high replacement needs reflect the large number of air carrier pilots who received their flight training during World War II and now are approaching retirement age. The employment needs for U.S. air carrier pilots are not divided equally between the two halves of the projection period. (See table 9.) Employment growth requirements for the 1968-72 period are projected to be considerably below that expected for the second half of the decade. These differing growth rates stem from several causes. Short-run projections are affected more strongly by cyclical influences. Pilot employment in creased at an unusually rapid pace during 1966 and 1967, far above the long-run trends. Thus, the computed employment level for 1967, developed through regres sion analysis, was considerably lower than the actual employment level reported by the FAA. Although full assessment of the recent spurt in employment is diffi cult, much of the increase may reflect short-run influ ences, i.e., increases in training and retraining activity, transport demands of the Viet Nam situation, and possible pilot stockpiling due to concern over possible future shortages. During the 9-month period ending March 31, 1968, Civil Aeronautics Board records show Table 9. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, by U.S. air carriers, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77 Requirements 1968-77 Occupation and type of requirement 1973-77 1968-72 Percent of total Percent of total Number Percent of total Total pilots.................................................. G ro w th ......................................................................... Retirement and death ............................................... 22,800 18,000 4,800 100 100 100 6,500 5,000 1,500 29 28 31 16,300 13,000 3,300 71 72 69 Retirement and d e a t h ............................................... 24,700 18,000 6,700 100 100 100 12,100 9,000 3,100 49 50 46 12,600 9,000 3,600 51 50 54 NO TE: Number Number In d iv id u a l parts m ay n o t add to to ta l d u e to ro u n d in g . SOURCE: Bureau o f L a b o r Statistics. that employment increased only 1,400, a possible indication that pilot employment growth patterns already may be returning to long-run trends. Also, pilot productivity is expected to increase more rapidly during the first 5-year period, modifying pilot requirements. During this period, jet aircraft will continue to replace the slower piston and turboprop aircraft and conse quently increase pilot productivity. By 1972, most of the conversion to jet aircraft will have been completed, and pilot productivity increases should slow during the 1973-77 period. This slowdown is expected to result in a more rapid rise in the requirements for pilots during this period. When compared with expected traffic growth, projec tions of pilot employment rise at a much slower pace, approximately 54 percent over the next decade. The much greater growth in traffic, unaccompanied by a correspondingly large increase in the number of pilots, reflects the impact of continuing technological change on pilot productivity. Primary among these changes will be further shifts in fleet composition. (See table 7.) Not only will the smaller capacity piston aircraft be phased out during the next decade, but new second and third generation jets will be put into service. The increase in average aircraft speed resulting from the expansion of the subsonic jet fleet (Boeing 747 and DC-10) and the introduction of supersonic aircraft will reduce further the trip time and increase output per pilot. Pilot productivity gains, however, will be moderated by a number of offsetting influences. Actual pilot flight hours, or “stick time,” may decline as a result of scheduling difficulties and increased flight preparation time. Traffic congestion may lengthen landing and takeoff times and modify the effect of the increase in average flight speed. Increases in training and retraining resulting from the advent of new types of aircraft also will increase pilot needs. Furthermore, pilot require ments may be influenced by future shifts in institutional factors such as longer vacations or, even more important, by negotiated reductions in the pilots’ maximum monthly duty hours. M ech anic req u irem en ts . About 25,000 new airplane mechanics will be needed by U.S. air carriers during the 1967-77 decade. (See table 9.) About three-fourths of this increase will result from employment growth. The number of mechanics employed by the Nation’s air carriers is expected to increase from 52,000 in 1967 to 70,000 in 1977, an increase of 35 percent (table 8). Most of the growth will occur in the certificated route air carriers, where employment is expected to increase by 17,000 to 67,000 in 1977, about equal to the employment growth experienced during the past decade. The remaining additional workers—about 1,000—will be required by the supplemental and commercial operator air carriers where mechanic employment will grow to about 3,000 by 1977. Employment growth is projected to be equally divided between the two halves of the projection period, increasing 9,000 in each period. Replacement needs, 9 Table 10. Revenue aircraft hours, by type of aircraft, U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977 [In millions] Hours A ircraft type Estimated 1967 Forecast 1972 1977 Percent change, 1967-77 Total a irc ra ft.................... 5 .27 7 .20 9 .27 Fixed-wing a ir c r a f t ........................... 5 .2 4 7.17 9 .2 3 + 76 J e t............................................... 3 .0 6 6 .1 4 8 .1 8 +1 6 7 T u r b o p r o p .............................. 0.87 0 .8 3 1.01 + 16 P is to n ........................................ 1.31 0 .2 0 0 .0 4 - H elicopters........................................... 0 .0 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 4 + 33 + 76 97 S O U R C E : F A A A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, (F e d e ra l A v ia tio n A d m in is tra tio n , J a n u a ry 1 9 6 7 ) ta b le 4 , p. 2 2 . however, will be higher in the second half of the decade. From 1968 through 1972, 3,100 workers will be needed to replace mechanics who die or retire, whereas replace ment requirements will be 3,600 for the later period, 16 percent higher. 10 Growth in the employment of mechanics will result primarily from two factors. First, the number of aircraft operated by air carriers is expected to increase substan tially during the next decade. In addition flight hours are expected to rise about 76 percent above the 1967 level. (See table 10.) The maintenance of this larger, more extensively utilized aircraft fleet will require additional mechanics. Second, aircraft are becoming larger and more complex. The increased sophistication of aircraft control, guidance, and communications systems will add to maintenance requirements. Some technological developments, on the other hand, will tend to moderate employment growth. The con tinued shift toward jet-powered aircraft will reduce engine maintenance requirements. Other innovations ranging from the use of complex monitoring and testing systems to the development of improved hand tools will increase mechanic productivity and moderate the rate of employment growth over the coming decade. Chapter 11. General Aviation11 General aviation is a large and rapidly expanding part of the Nation’s air transportation system. In 1967, general aviation accounted for nearly 97 percent of all the aircraft operated in the civil aviation industry. Of the 106,337 aircraft inventoried by FAA, 104,000 were in general aviation. (See table 11.) General aviation has grown substantially in recent years. As speed, safety, and comfort have increased, aircraft have gained in acceptance as a mode of transportation. Population growth, rising personal and business incomes, and increased leisure time have spurred the expansion in all types of general aviation flying. Business flying has increased as more and more companies have discovered the convenience and com petitive advantages of operating their own aircraft. Air taxi service has increased in response to the need for feeder service to major air terminals and for air transportation to remote locations not serviced by air carriers. In recent years, modern agriculture and industry increasingly have required additional aircraft for activi ties such as pesticide spraying, pipeline patrolling, and certain construction operations. To meet these and similar needs, general aviation has become one of the most rapidly expanding sectors. Changes in the size of the general aviation aircraft fleet and the increase in the number of hours flown in general aviation provide an indication o f industry growth. According to FAA, the fleet grew by more than 38,700 aircraft between 1958 and 1967, an increase of about 60 percent. (See table 11.) Of the various types of aircraft, growth has been most rapid for the larger multiengine aircraft. In 1958, multiengine aircraft accounted for 8 percent of the general aviation fleet, but their share had grown to 12 percent by 1967. The total hours flown in general aviation have increased even faster than the number o f aircraft. Although only 12.6 million hours were flown by general aviation aircraft in 1958, flight hours had increased to an alltime high of 22.2 million by 1967, an increase of 76 percent over the decade. (See table 12.) In terms of number of aircraft, personal use flying makes up the largest part of general aviation; this activity accounted for 54 percent of the 104,000 general aviation aircraft in 1967. (See table 13.) Among non personal uses, business flying accounted for 22 percent of the general aviation fleet, followed by commercial flying, 14 percent; instructional flying, 8 percent; and other flying, 2 percent. Although representing less than one-half of the aircraft fleet, nonpersonal flying ac counted for slightly over three-fourths of all the hours flown in general aviation. Personal use flying accounted for only 23 percent of hours flown in 1967, whereas business flying accounted for 30 percent. Other impor tant sectors in terms of hours flown were commercial and, instructional flying, which accounted for 18 and 28 percent, respectively, of the total. The larger proportion of hours flown relative to the number of aircraft reported for nonpersonal uses reflects the much higher rates of aircraft utilization in the nonpersonal flying sectors. The most rapid increase in hours flown between 1958 and 1967 occurred in instructional flying. Hours flown in instructional flying increased 191 percent. Other sectors recording rapid growth in hours flown during this period were personal use flying (119 percent) and commercial flying (66 percent). Outlook According to FAA, the general aviation fleet will continue to expand rapidly during the coming decade, stimulated by the same factors that spurred activity during the past decade. By 1977, the number of such aircraft is forecast to increase to 180,000, or 73 percent above the 1967 level. (See table 14.) Piston aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase in the number of general aviation aircraft. Single-engine piston aircraft are forecast to grow by 55,600, or 63 percent between 1967 and 1977. During the same time period, multi-engine piston aircraft will approximately double in number and increase from 12,500 to 23,000. Turbine powered aircraft, both turbojet and turboprop, are expected to show the sharpest rate of growth by jumping froin fewer than 1,000 in 1967 to 8,000 by 1977. Most of the turbine powered aircraft will be used in business and air taxi operations, where their relatively lower maintenance costs and higher speeds make them especially attractive. The number of hours flown by general aviation aircraft also is forecast by FAA to rise sharply between 1967 and 1977. (See table 12.) Total aircraft hours will 11 General aviation covers the following categories as identi fied by the Federal Aviation Administration: (1) business flying, (2) commercial flying (air taxi, aerial applications and indus trial-special use), (3) instructional flying, (4) personal-use flying, and (5) other flying. Also included in this category are the certified and noncertified repair stations that service general aviation aircraft. 11 Table 1 1 . Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1958-67, and forecast 1972 and 1977 Aircraft type Year, as of January 1 Number of active aircraft Piston Turbine Single-engine Rotorcraft Other Multiengine 1958 .................................... 1959 .................................... 1960 .................................... 1 9 6 1 .................................... 1962 . . . ............................ 1963 .................................... 1964 .................................... 1965 .................................... 1966 .................................... 1967 .................................... 65,289 67,839 68,727 76,549 80,632 84,121 85,088 88,742 95,442 104,000 59,649 61,692 61,844 68,301 71,010 73,456 73,626 76,136 81,134 88,000 5,036 5,416 5,957 7,129 8,211 8,978 9,458 10,346 11,422 12,500 (1) (1) 77 114 186 213 245 306 574 950 344 439 525 634 798 967 1,171 1,306 1,503 1,700 260 292 324 371 427 507 588 648 809 850 1972 .................................... 144,000 118,300 17,800 4,100 2,650 1,150 1977 .................................... 180,000 143,600 23,000 8,000 4,000 1,400 2 / Not available. SOURCE: F A A Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, Federal Aviation Administration, 1958-67 edition. Aviation Fore casts Fiscal Years 19 67 -77,(Federal Aviation Administration, January 1967). grow by nearly three-fifths; the increase will be from 22.2 million in 1967 to 35.0 million by 1977. By 1977, the nonpersonal uses of aircraft still will make up almost three-fourths of all the hours flown in general aviation. Business flying will continue to account for the largest share; its increase is expected to be nearly 60 percent, from 6.6 to 10.4 million hours between 1967 and 1977. A growing number of business firms, especially those that have operations in more than one geographic location, are expected to buy or lease aircraft to provide more direct travel for company executives. Businessowned aircraft also are being used more widely to transport sales staffs and customers, and to provide a responsive technical service staff for product installation and maintenance. Flight hours also are expected to grow substantially in both commercial (3.9 to 7.2 million) and instructional (6.3 to 7.4 million) flying between 1967 and 1977. Most of the increase in commercial flying will result from the growing demand for air taxi services. From 1957 to 1967, the number of certificated air taxi operators has risen steadily. Future growth will result primarily from the expansion of air taxi service to communities too small to warrant regular air carrier service, and from the demand for air taxi service to connect major air termi nals with downtown areas and suburban communities. 12 Several major air carriers already are including air taxi fares in ticketing procedures, a practice that will be expanded further in the 1967-77 decade. Flight hours in personal use flying are forecast to grow by nearly 90 percent during 1967-77. (See table 12.) A population with more leisure time and higher incomes, together with the public’s growing awareness of the availability and convenience of flying, will stimulate this rapid expansion. Pilot employment trends Historical data on the number of pilots have been limited, for the most part, to a count of active pilot certificates. According to FAA, the number of persons holding commercial certificates—the rating held by most pilots employed in general aviation—more than doubled between 1957 and 1967 and increased from 71,000 to 150.000. 12 A large share of this growth occurred during the 1963-67 period, when the number of pilots holding commercial certificates rose sharply from 96,000 to 150.000. This data, however, represent the total pilot 12 FAA Statistical H andbook o f A viation, 1966 Edition, (Federal Aviation Administration), p. 77. Unpublished data for 1967 were obtained from FAA. Table 12. Estimated hours flown in general aviation, by type of flying, 1950-67and FY 1972 and 1977 [Thousands of hours] Type of flying Year Total hours Business Commercial I nstructional Personal use Hours Per cent Hours Per cent Hours Per cent Hours Per cent Other Hours Per cent 1 1 3 2 ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ 9,650 8,451 8,186 8,527 8,963 9,500 10,200 10,938 12,579 12,903 13,121 13,602 14,500 15,106 15,738 16,733 21,023 22,153 2,750 2,950 3,124 3,626 3,875 4,300 4,600 4,864 5,699 5,699 5,699 5,699 5,431 5,740 5,823 5,857 7,057 6,578 28 35 38 42 43 45 45 45 45 44 44 42 38 38 37 35 33 30 1,500 1,584 1,727 1,649 1,829 1,950 2,000 2,013 2,365 2,365 2,365 2,634 3,051 3,172 3,305 3,348 3,555 3,918 16 19 21 19 20 21 20 18 19 18 18 19 21 21 21 20 17 18 3,000 1,902 1,503 1,248 1,292 1,275 1,500 1,864 2,150 2,043 1,828 1,796 2,385 2,417 2,675 3,346 5,674 6,262 31 23 18 15 15 13 15 17 17 16 14 13 16 16 17 20 27 28 2,300 1,880 1,629 1,846 1,920 1,975 2,100 2,109 2,365 2,796 3,172 3,398 3,489 3,626 3,777 4,016 4,540 5,173 24 22 20 22 22 21 20 19 19 22 24 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 100 135 203 158 47 57 75 144 151 158 166 197 222 (i/) 1972 ........................ 27,200 8,400 31 5,700 21 5,600 21 7,300 27 200 1 1977 35,000 10,400 30 7,200 21 7,400 21 9,700 28 300 1 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 ........................ u/> — — — — 88 — — 1 — — 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 /Less than 0.05 percent. SOURCE 1950-66: F A A Statistical Handbook o f Aviation (Federal Aviation Administration), 1963 and 1967 Edi tions, table 5.2 and 5.4. 1967: Unpublished data from the F A A . 1972 and 1977: Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 , op. cit., table 8, p. 27. population, not persons actually employed as pilots in general aviation.13 Based on a special tabulation prepared from FAA aeromedical records,14 25,000 pilots were employed by 13 The discussion o f historical trends in the number o f pilots is limited in this section to active certificated pilots. The total pilot population reflected in the FAA data includes many persons who fly solely for recreation, and others who are employed primarily in other occupations, but who fly occa sionally for business reasons or as a secondary job. Although recognizing that many thousands o f additional pilots may be employed on a casual part-time basis, for the purpose o f this study, the Bureau’s statisticians decided that meaningful future pilot training requirements would best be determined if current and projected employment estimates were limited to those persons who were employed primarily as professional pilots. Lack o f historical data on professionally-employed pilots in general aviation prevented development o f estimates for years prior to 1967. 14 For a complete discussion o f the source and methods followed in preparing pilot employment estimates, see p. 19. general aviation in 1967. Almost one-half of these pilots (11,900) were reportedly in executive transportation (table 15). Air taxi operations accounted for the second largest concentration of pilots (6,200), followed by instructional flying (3,300). The remaining pilots were divided among the other general aviation activities; 1,500 were reported in aerial application, 1,500 in industrial/special, and 500 in other uses. Mechanic employment trends Historical data on general aviation mechanic employ ment have been limited in the past to FAA data reporting the number of persons holding mechanic certificates. The number of certificated mechanics has grown substantially in the past decade; the increase was from 103,000 in 1957 to over 147,000 in 1967.15 These 15 FAA Statistical H andbook o f Aviation, 1966 Edition, op. cit., p. 77. Unpublished data for 1967 were obtained from FAA. 13 data, however, include many persons ndt employed as mechanics in general aviation and exclude others.16 Based on certificated repair station inspection records and FAA regional office estimates,17 mechanic employ ment in general aviation was estimated at about 50,000 in 1967. (See table 16.) Three-fifths (32,600) of these mechanics were employed at certificated repair stations. The remainder, about 18,000, were estimated to be employed by the usually smaller, noncertificated repair stations. At certificated repair stations, noncertificated mechanics were estimated to number about 24,000; certificated mechanics, 4,800; and certificated repair men, 3,600. Projected pilot and mechanic requirements As in the air carrier industry, the manpower require ments presented in this section reflect both those resulting from expansion in the general aviation sector and those resulting from the need to replace persons who die or retire. The growth projections were made within the framework of general aviation flight activity and fleet forecasts developed by FAA in its 1967 report, A v ia tio n F orecasts F iscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 . For a complete discussion of the methods used in developing the employment projections and estimating replacement requirements, see Part II of this bulletin. P ilo t requirem ents. About 36,000 new pilots will be required in general aviation from 1968 through 1977 because of occupational growth and the need to replace pilots who will retire or die. (See table 17.) Require ments resulting from employment growth will account for nearly 85 percent of all new pilot needs. Pilot employment is projected to more than double between 1967 and 1977; the increase is expected to be from an estimated 25,000 to about 56,000. (See table 18.) More than 80 percent of the new pilot requirements will be concentrated in two flying activities—executive transportation and air taxi operations. In the executive transportation sector alone, pilot requirements will exceed 19,000 over the 1967-77 decade. (See table 17.) Table 13. Estimated distribution of general aviation aircraft, by type of flying, 1967 100 Personal u s e ...................................................... ... ..................... 54 B u s in e s s ...................................................................................... 22 C o m m e r c i a l ............................................................................... 14 In s t r u c t io n a l............................................................................... 8 O ther f l y i n g .......................................................................... 2 SOURCE: B ureau o f L ab o r S tatistics. Employment growth will account for most of these requirements as the number of pilots engaged in execu tive flying is projected to increase from nearly 12,000 to about 28,000. An additional 2,700 pilots will be needed in executive flying as replacements for those who retire or die during the decade. In air taxi flying, slightly over 11,000 new pilots will be required, the sharpest rate of increase for any flying activity. By 1977, the number of pilots engaged in this activity will grow by one and a half times its 1967 level—from 6,200 to 15,800. An addi tional 1,500 pilots will be required by air-taixi flying as replacements. Of the remaining pilot requirements in general avia tion, nearly two-thirds (3,700) will be in instructional flying. Employment needs will nearly double in this sector, growing from 3,300 in 1967 to 6,300 in 1977. Another 700 pilots will be needed as replacements for those pilots who retire or die during this period. Smaller numbers of new pilots will be required in the other types of general aviation flying—800 in industrial/special; 900 in aerial application; and 400 in other types of flying. Pilot growth requirements will be somewhat higher during the second half of the 1967-77 decade. Employ ment requirements are projected to increase by 16,600 during the second half of the decade, compared with 14,100 during the first half; and replacement needs will Table 14. Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977 Aircraft Type of aircraft 16 The discussion o f historical trends in the number o f mechanics is limited in this section to certificated mechanics. Mechanics em ployed by air carriers are included in FAA data as are persons who hold an active mechanic rating but are employed in another occupation. Excluded from the FAA data are a large number o f mechanics w ithout active certificates. Lack o f historical data on mechanics employed in general aviation prevented development o f estimates for the years prior to 1967. 17 For a complete discussion o f the sources and procedures followed in estimating mechanic employment, see p. 34. 14 Percent distribution Type o f flying T o t a l ................................................................... Estimated 1967 Forecast Percent increase, 1967-77 1972 1977 T o t a l ................................... 104,000 144,000 180,000 73 Piston...................................................... 100,500 136,100 166,600 66 Single-engine............................. 88,0 00 118,300 143,600 63 M u ltie n g in e ............................. 12,500 17,800 23,000 84 Turbine ................................................ 9 50 4,100 8,0 0 0 742 R o to r c r a ft............................................. 1,700 2,650 4,000 135 O th e r ...................................................... 850 1,150 1,400 65 S O U R C E : A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. e ft., ta b le 6 , p. 2 5 . Table 15. Estimated employment of pilots in general aviation, by type of flying, 1967 Estimated 1967 em ploym ent Percent distribution T o t a l ............................................................ 2 5,0 00 100.0 Executive tra n s p o rta tio n ........................................... 1 1,900 47.5 A ir t a x i ..................................................... 6 ,2 0 0 24.9 Aerial a p p lic a tio n ......................................................... 1 ,500 6 .2 In d u s tria l/s p e c ia l........................................................ 1 ,500 6.1 In s tru c tio n a l.................................................................. 3 ,3 0 0 13.3 500 2.0 Type o f flying O ther .................................................................. N O T E : In d iv id u a l item s m ay n o t add to to ta l d u e to ro u n d in g . Percents based on u n ro u n d e d n u m b ers. S O U R C E : Bureau o f L a b o r S tatistics. E stim ates based on d a ta o b ta in e d fro m F A A A e ro m e d ic a l R ecords. average about 700 a year in the 1973-77 period, compared with nearly 400 a year in the 1968-72 period. The growth in pilot employment throughout the various sectors of general aviation will be generated by the rapid rise in the demand for general aviation services discussed earlier. Although numerous technological advances are expected in aircraft design and in operating systems, these changes are not expected to have a major impact on the manpower requirements for pilots in general aviation. 50,400 to 92,800. (See table 18.) Six out of every seven new job openings will result from employment expan sion. The remaining requirements (7,800) will result from the need to replace workers who will die or retire. Employment of mechanics will grow to about 72,000 by 1972, an increase of nearly 22,000, compared with a projected increase of 20,700 during the second 5-year period. Replacement needs also will be greater during the second 5-year period—4,500 compared with 3,300. A number of factors will spur the growth of mechanic employment. As indicated earlier, the general aviation fleet is expected to expand from 104,000 in 1967 to 144,000 by 1972 and 180,000 by 1977, an increase of 73 percent for the decade. Perhaps even more important in determining mechanic requirements is the sharp increase in flight hours forecast by the FAA. Not only is the general aviation fleet and its utilization increasing, but aircraft also are becoming more complex as new Table 16. Estimated mechanics employed in general aviation, by type of repair station, 1367 Total m echanics............................................................................ 5 0 ,4 0 0 Certificated repair s t a t i o n ............................................................................ 3 2 ,6 0 0 Certificated m e ch a n ics ...................................................................... 4 ,8 0 0 Certificated r e p a ir m e n ...................................................................... M echanic requ irem en ts . An estimated 50,300 new mechanics will be needed in general aviation from 1967 through 1977, an average of nearly 5,000 each year. Employment needs are expected to nearly double over the 1967-77 decade; the expected increase will be from Estimated 1967 em ploym ent Type of repair station Noncertificated repair station NOTE: 3 ,6 0 0 ...................................................... 17,8 00 In d iv id u a l parts m a y n o t add to to ta ls d u e to ro u n d in g . SOURCE: records. B ureau of Labor S tatistics. E stim ates based on u n p u b lish ed FAA Table 17. Projected requirements for general aviation pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Requirements 1968-77 Occupation 1973-77 1968-72 Total Growth Deaths and retirements Total Growth Deaths and retirements Total Growth Deaths and retirements P ilo ts...................................... 36,200 30,700 5,500 16,400 14,100 2,200 19,900 16,600 3,300 Executive flying . . . . Air t a x i....................... Aerial application . . . Industrial/special. . . . Instructional............... Other .......................... 19,300 11,100 900 800 3,700 400 16,500 9,600 700 600 3,000 300 2,700 1,500 300 200 700 100 8,200 5,200 500 400 1,900 200 7,200 4,600 400 300 1,600 200 1,100 600 100 100 300 ( 1/ ) 11,000 6,000 400 400 1,800 200 9,400 5,000 300 300 1,400 200 1,600 900 100 100 400 <l/> Mechanics............................. 50,300 42,400 7,800 25,100 21,800 3,300 25,200 20,700 4,500 1/ Less than 50. N O T E : Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding. S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. 15 Table 18. Employment of pilots and mechanics in general aviation, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 Estimated 1967 employment Occupation Projected requirements 1972 1977 Percentage increase 1967-77 P ilo ts ............................................................................................................. 25,000 39,200 55,700 123 Executive transportation ................................................................ Air t a x i............................................................................................. Aerial application............................................................................ 1ndustrial/special............................................................................ Instructional..................................................................................... Other ................................................................................................. 11,900 6,200 1,500 1,500 3,300 500 19,100 10,800 1,900 1,800 4,900 700 28,400 15,800 2,200 2,100 6,300 800 139 155 47 40 91 60 Mechanics.................................................................................................... 50,400 72,100 92,800 84 NOTE: Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding. S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. equipment and instrumentation are being developed continually, creating additional maintenance demands. However, other influences will offset the increased maintenance created by the growing complexity of general aviation aircraft. New and better maintenance equipment and procedures will increase mechanic pro ductivity. The shift towards jet powered aircraft, which have fewer engine maintenance requirements, also will 16 tend to moderate the growth in requirements for certain mechanic specialties. These technological developments will offset one another in the aggregate. In the last analysis, the rapid expansion expected in the size of the fleet and in hours flown will generate a substantial increase in maintenance requirements, and consequantly, mechanic employment will rise sharply during the 1967-77 decade. Chapter III. Presented in this section is a discussion of the growth of and outlook for Federal, State, and local government flying activities, excluding all activities of the U.S. Department of Defense, civilian and military.18 Pilot employment trends Nearly 2,000 pilots were estimated to be employed in nonmilitary activities by Federal, State, and local gov ernment agencies in 1967. (See table 19.) The Federal Government accounted for almost one-half (1,200) of all pilots employed by all levels of government. Most were employed by the Federal Aviation Administration and are involved in activities such as aircraft, airway, and flight procedure testing, and in pilot proficiency testing. Other Federal agencies employing significant numbers of pilots were the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and Interior. These agencies utilize pilots for border patrol ling, forest and game conservation activities, and experi mental work. State and local governments were estimated to employ 800 pilots in 1967. Many were engaged in State and local police patrolling activities; others were employed in State forestry and natural resource agencies engaged in conservation programs. A growing number are being utilized for student instruction in public universities and colleges. In the Federal Government, pilot employment in nondefense activities has declined slightly since 1957. Although the number of FAA pilots engaged in testing airway systems has declined, the decrease was offset, in part, by an increase in the number of pilots engaged in pilot and flight checkout. Employment in the other Federal agencies grew slightly over the decade but has remained relatively stable during the past few years. No historical data on pilot employment in State and local governments are available. 18 Excluded from the scope o f this study are about 500 civilian pilots employed by the U.S. Department o f Defense. 19 Excluded from the scope o f this study are 33,000 civilians employed as airplane mechanics by the U.S. Department o f Defense. 20 Estimates o f the number o f mechanics employed by the Federal Government from 1958-67 were based on data from the U.S. Civil Service Commission and the Federal Aviation Admin istration. 21 Reductions in programs, such as the monitoring o f air carrier flights, are possible during the decade. If such program reductions are made, the number o f pilots employed by the Federal Government actually may decline. Government Mechanic and employment trends In 1967, an estimated 1,100 mechanics were employed by government agencies in nondefense activi ties.19 (See table 19.) Nearly all were employed by the Federal Government, principally by the Federal Aviation Administration. Fewer than 100 mechanics were esti mated to be employed by State and local government agencies. Because of the small aircraft fleet operated by State and local governments, most maintenance work is contracted out to privately-operated repair stations. Mechanics working for Federal agencies are engaged largely in the maintenance of agency operated aircraft. In 1958, about 1,200 were employed by Federal non defense agencies. Employment increased during the early 1960’s to about 1,700 in 1962. By 1967, however, the number of mechanics dropped to 1,100, slightly below the 1958 level.20 Projected pilot and mechanic requirements The following section discusses future pilot and mechanic manpower requirements in government. The manpower requirements presented reflect both those resulting from expansion and those resulting from the need to replace persons who die or retire. For a complete discussion of the methods used in developing employment projections and estimating replacement requirements, see pages 33 and 39 of this report. P ilo t requirem ents. The number of pilots employed by government is expected to grow by nearly 1,000 between 1967 and 1977 to a total of 2,900. (See table 19.) In addition to growth requirements, 300 pilots will be needed to replace those who will die or retire. (See table 20.) The growth in employment requirements will be somewhat greater in the Federal Government (500) than in State and local government agencies (400). In Federal agencies, the increase in requirements will result from the further expansion of flight procedure testing and pilot checkout activities conducted by the FAA. The growth in flight activity, both commercial and private, will require a larger staff of these specialized personnel. The increases may be offset, in part, however, by further reductions in frequency of certain inspection programs.21 In State and local government agencies, further expansion of patrolling activities, especially highway and other police patrolling, and the growth of flight instruction in public supported schools will account for most of the increase in pilot requirements. 17 Table 19. Employment of pilots and mechanics in government, by type of government, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 Estimated 1967 employment Occupation Projected requirements 1972 1977 Percentage increase 1967-77 Total pilots............................. ....................................................... 1,980 2,440 2,900 46 Federal............................................................................................................ 1,180 1,440 1,700 44 Federal Aviation Adm inistration................................... ................. Other F ed era l..................................................................................... 1,020 160 1,260 180 1,500 200 47 25 State and local................................................................................................. 800 1,000 1,200 50 Total mechanics............................................................................ 1,100 1,100 1,100 — Federal............................................................................................................. 1,000 1,000 1,000 — State and local................................................................................................. 100 100 100 — S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Federal em plo ym ent estimates fo r 19 67 based on data from th e U.S. Civil Service Com m is sion and th e Federal A viation A dm inistratio n. State and local em ploym ent estimates fo r 1967 based on special tabulatio n o f F A A aeromedicai records. M echanic req u irem en ts . Little change is expected in the number of mechanics employed by government during the 1967-77 decade. The size of the fleet operated by FAA is expected to decline slightly, but it will consist of larger, more complex aircraft. As in the past, employment is expected to remain relatively stable, and new mechanic requirements will stem primarily from the need to replace workers who retire or die. Estimates are that only 100 new mechanics will be required for this purpose. (See table 20.) No change is expected in employment of mechanics in State and local governments, since maintenance work probably will continue to be performed by private repair stations. Table 20. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics in government^ resulting from employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1 9 6 8 -77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Requirements Total Growth 1973-77 1968-72 1968-77 Occupation and type of government Deaths and retirement Total Growth Deaths and retirement Total Growth Deaths and retirement .... 1,250 920 330 610 460 150 640 460 180 Federal................................... 720 520 200 350 260 90 370 260 110 State and local........................ 530 400 130 260 200 60 270 200 70 Total mechanics . . 120 — 120 60 -- 60 60 — 60 Federal................................... 100 — 100 50 -- 50 50 — 50 State and local........................ 20 20 10 — 10 10 — 10 Total pilots — J/E xc lu d es personnel em ployed by th e U.S. D epartm ent o f Defense. S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. 18 Chapter IV. Projection Methods A number of techniques for estimating future pilot and mechanic requirements in civil aviation were tested and evaluated before those used in this study were selected. The techniques used account for the future environment of the industry as reflected by forecasts made by the Federal Aviation Administration of industry variables such as fleet size and composition, revenue passenger miles, and revenue aircraft hours flown. These variables express the expected demand for the services of civil aviation, and the technological, economic, and other factors that will influence the level of demand and manpower requirements. The BLS projections of manpower requirements, therefore, are dependent upon the realization of the FAA forecasts. The techniques finally selected are presented in a manner that facilitates revision of the manpower projec tions if the FAA projections are modified. Such a presentation is highly desirable, since the rapidly chang ing environment of civil aviation makes all projections subject to constant review. Pilot and mechanic employment requirements Several techniques were selected to estimate pilot requirements resulting from expected growth in civil aviation activity. For U.S. air carriers, two separate techniques were used, the results of each verifying the other. The first (method A)22 was based on the need for pilots, as reflected in FAA’s estimated fleet size and composition and the total number of hours these aircraft would be flown23, as well as BLS estimates of the average number of crews expected per aircraft and the number of pilots expected per crew. The second (method B) involved the development of a multiple regression equation. The variables used in the equation were selected after testing and evaluating the relation ship of historical data on pilot requirements. The equation reflects the impact of total hours flown, the 22 This method is a modification o f the technique used in Forecasts o f Airline P ilot Requirem ents (Task 67-17, Subtask 3, Logistics Management Institute, Washington, D.C., May 1967). 23 Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77. op. cit. 24 Base year estimates o f pilot employment in each segment o f general aviation were taken from aeromedical records main tained at the Civil Aeromedical Institute, Federal Aviation Administration, Oklahoma G ty , Oklahoma. 25 The base-year level o f mechanic employment in general aviation was estimated from Annual Inspection Report Records o f Certificated Repair Stations, and unpublished estimates o f mechanic employment in noncertificated repair stations main tained by FAA regional offices. changing technology of civil aviation (complexity, fleet composition, utilization of aircraft), and other factors. For general aviation, only one technique for estimat ing pilot requirements was selected. The need for pilots was estimated by type of flying (executive flying, aerial-application, etc.) on the basis of the relationship between current pilot employment and the number and utilization of different types of aircraft. The pilot/ aircraft relationships then were extended to the target years and applied to estimates of fleet size in each flying activity.24 Projections of the relatively small number of pilots employed in government were made on the basis of an evaluation of available historical data and consulta tion with the various government agencies employing these workers. Two techniques were selected to project the growth of employment requirements for mechanics in civil aviation—one for the growth of requirements in air carriers and the other for requirements in general aviation. For U.S. air carriers, a multiple regression equation was selected from among many tested, which considered the total number of hours flown, and speed, a variable which reflects the changing composition and utilization of the fleet. For general aviation, a ratio technique was used that allowed the projection of the number of mechanics on the basis of their relationship to the current (1967) and expected total number of hours flown by general aviation aircraft.25 Because of the small numbers of mechanics employed by govern ment, employment estimates and projections for these workers were made on the basis of an evaluation of available historical data and consultation with the various government agencies where they are employed. U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method A The first technique used to project employment requirements for pilots by air carriers was based on the expected size, composition, and utilization of the fleet in the projection years. Tables 21 and 22 present a step-by-step application of the technique. The historical data on pilot employment in U.S. air carriers and the projected employment requirements in 1972 and 1977 using method A are illustrated in chart 3. The data used to project pilot employment requirements by method A originate from different sources. The FAA provides projections of the fleet size, composition, and hours flown by type of aircraft in the target years. Other factors used in the technique were developed by BLS and are explained in detail below. 19 Table 21. U.S. air carrier pilot em ploym ent requirements projection to 1972 (method A ) Revenue hours Average crews flown by per aircraft aircraft Col. 3-^ 508 Col. 2 + Col. 1 Number in inventory Total revenue hours flown (millions) d) (2) (3) 2-Engine j e t .................................. 3-Engine jet 1,252 3.08 4-Engine j e t .................................. 942 Aircraft type Pilots per crew Pilot employment Col. 1 x 4 x 5 (4) (5) (6) 2,460 4.84 2.5 15,149 3.06 3,248 6.39 3.0 18,058 Supersonic jet 353 .74 2,096 4.13 2.0 2,916 4-Engine turboprop...................... 1 and 2 engine turboprop .... 49 .09 1,837 3.62 3.0 532 1 and 2 engine piston .................. 155 .08 516 1.02 2.0 316 4-Engine p is to n ............................ 96 .12 1,250 2.46 3.0 708 H e lic o p te r..................................... 28 .03 1,071 2.11 2.0 118 T o t a l ............................ 2,875 37,797 S O U R C E : N u m b e r in In ven to ry and T o ta l Revenue Hours F lo w n —A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 , o p . c it., tables 3 and 4 , pp. 2 2 and 2 3 . Pilots per c rew —"S p ecif icatio ns-U .S . C om m ercial T ra n s p o rts /' A v ia tio n W eek a n d Space T echnology, V o l. 8 8 , N o . 12 March 18, 1 9 6 8 , p. 2 0 4 . Table 22. U.S. air carrier pilot em ploym ent requirements projection to 1977 (method A ) Revenue hours Average crews flown by per aircraft aircraft Col. 2 -r Col. 1 Col. 3 ^ 4 8 3 Number in inventory Total revenue hours flown (millions) (1) (2) (3) Engine j e t .................... Engine jet 1,746 4.41 4-Engine j e t .................................. 1,091 Aircraft type 23- Supersonic j e t ............................... Pilots per crew Pilot employment Col. 1 x 4 x 5 (4) (5) (6) 2,526 5.23 2.5 22,829 3.50 3,208 6.64 3.0 21,733 86 .27 3,140 6.50 3.0 1,677 453 .97 2,141 4.43 2.0 4,014 4-Engine turboprop...................... 35 .04 1,143 2.37 3.0 249 1 and 2 engine piston .................. 26 .05 1,923 3.98 2.0 207 4-Engine p is to n ............................ 33 .04 1,212 2.51 3.0 248 H e lic o p te r..................................... 30 .04 1,333 2.76 2.0 T o t a l ............................ 3,500 1 and 2 engine turboprop .... 166 51,123 S O U R C E : N um ber in In v e n to ry and T o ta l Revenue Hours F lo w n —A v ia tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1 9 6 7 -7 7 , op . c it., tables 3 and 4 , pp. 2 2 and 2 3 . Pilots per c re w —"S p ecif icatio ns-U .S . C om m ercial Tran sp o rts," A v ia tio n W eek a n d Space Tech no log y, V o l. 8 8 , N o . 12 . M arch 18 , 1 9 6 8 , p. 2 0 4 . 20 CHART 3 EMPLOYMENT OF PILOTS BY U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, 195 0-6 6 , A N D PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS, 1972 A N D 1977 EMPLOYMENT (000) (M E T H O D A) SOURCE: 1950-60 - EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS AND CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE IN CIVIL AVIATION, op. cit. 1961 - FACTS AND FIGURES 1967, (AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D.C.). 1962-67 - FACTS AND FIGURES 1968, (AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D.C.). 1972 & 1977 - BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. 21 A verage crew s p e r aircraft. The average number of crews per aircraft in the projected years (column 4) was derived by dividing the expected average revenue hours flown per individual aircraft (column 3) by a factor representing average annual hours flown per crew. Average annual hours flown per crew (508 for 1972 and 483 for 1977) were developed by extrapolating the experience of one large air carrier between 1957 and 1966. The validity of attributing the experience of one air carrier to all air carriers was tested in two ways: First, by discussing the reasonableness of the procedure with industry officials; and second, through testing the projection technique by recreating total air carrier pilot employment in a past year using the historical annual hours experience of pilots employed by one major air carrier, and comparing the results with published pilot employment for that year. Chart 4 shows the average monthly pilot pay hours and actual flight hours for a major air carrier between 1957 and 1966 and BLS projections to 1972 and 1977. With the induction of jet aircraft during the 1960’s, the difference between pilot pay hours and flight hours increased, but at a decreasing rate. In recent years, the rate of decline in flight hours has slowed. By 1966, the average stood at 48 compared with 68 in 1957, an annual average decline of 3.3 percent. Between 1960 and 1966, however, average flight hours dropped from about 57 to 48, or an average of 2.6 percent a year. The slow change in monthly flight hours anticipated after 1966 reflects the industry’s expectation that actual flying hours per pilot will not continue to decline as rapidly as between 1960 and 1966 when the conversion to jet aircraft is complete. (Annual average flying hours used in the estimating procedure are monthly hours multiplied by 12 months.) Industry officials agreed that the level and changes in the level of average monthly flying hours for one major carrier were reasonably representative of the industry as a whole. Moreover, the test of method A using the experience of this air carrier proved valid. Using these data, total 1961 pilot employment in the air carriers calculated by method A was only 3 percent below the published level. P ilo ts p e r crew . The numbers of pilots per crew used in column 5 in tables 21 and 22 are consistent with current Federal regulations and, for the projected years, the opinions of industry officials for aircraft that will become operational between 1967 and 1977. Once these variables were determined, pilot projections then were computed for each target year by multiplying the 22 number of aircraft by the average crews per aircraft and the number of pilots per crew. Following the procedure shown in tables 21 and 22, air carrier (including supplemental airlines and commercial operator air car riers) pilot employment was estimated at approximately 37,800 in 1972 and 51,100 in 1977. U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method B To project pilot employment requirements by U.S. route air carriers, a number of variables were selected and regressed separately and in combination against a series on historical employment. The purpose of these tests was to determine the basic causes of change in the employment series. Not only were variables finally selected on the basis of the most logical underpinning possible, but each variable was tested for statistical significance. To understand better the presentation that follows, a number of limitations to the technique should be noted. First, the types of series available, although perhaps more numerous and of better quality than available for the analysis of almost any other occupation, are none theless limited. Therefore, the specification of theories in equation form made use of proxy variables that best reflect influences relevant to the aircraft industry. In some cases, variables that contribute significantly to the explanation of changes in the level of employment of pilots must be either discarded or redefined as proxies before they can be accepted on the basis of empirical evidence. The use of proxy variables is admittedly crude and risky and places the burden of proof squarely on the analysts undertaking the research. Second, a great deal of multicolinearity (high inter-correlation) exist among some of the explanatory variables tested. The rapid growth of civil aviation over the last 20 years is associated with the rapid growth of other variables related to the industry. Therefore, although the correla tion between two variables may be high, (logical) qualitative analysis would indicate that the actual cause and effect relationship between them is rather low, both having been influenced by a third variable. Third, the development of an equation (theory) explaining changes in past employment could not be divorced from con sideration of expected future changes in the explanatory variables. The use of an equation for projection purposes assumes that the environment of the system or model generally will continue in the future as it has in the past so that the impact of the variable will continue to be similar. For air transportation, however, current indica tions are that this may not be true. A new dimension in civil aviation may become important by the 1970’s that CHART 4 AVERAGE M O NTHLY HOURS PILOT MONTHLY PAY HOURS AND FLIGHT HOURS, EXPERIENCE OF A MAJOR U.S. AIR CARRIER, 1957-66, AND BLS PROJECTIONS, 1972 AND 1977 SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. Table 23. Data inputs fo r projecting requirements fo r U.S. route air carrier pilots (method B) and mechanics Y ear Revenue a ircraft hours (In thousands) Speed (miles flo w n -r hours flow n) 1 9 5 3 ............................... 1 9 5 4 ............................... 1 9 5 5 ............................... 1 9 5 6 ............................... 1957 ............................... 195 8 ............................... 1 95 9 ............................... 1 9 6 0 ............................... 1 9 6 1 ............................... 1 96 2 ............................... 1 9 6 3 ............................... 1 9 6 4 ............................... 1965 ............................... 1 9 6 6 ............................... 1967 ............................... 3 ,3 2 7 .6 3 ,3 6 5 .3 3,7 5 9.1 4 ,2 0 9 .7 4 ,6 8 3.1 4 ,5 7 1 .4 4 ,7 4 9 .4 4 ,2 8 1 .6 3 ,8 4 5 .9 3 ,7 3 6 .3 3 ,7 8 5 .3 3 ,9 4 7 .0 4 ,2 5 6 .6 4 ,7 8 1 .2 5 ,2 4 9 .3 200 209 213 216 219 224 228 243 264 287 302 314 333 335 351 1972 ............................... 7 ,1 7 1 .9 382 ............................... 9 ,2 3 4 .0 388 1977 S O U R C E : 1 9 5 3 - 5 4 : H a n d b o o k o f A ir lin e S ta tis tic s , 1 9 6 3 E d itio n , o p . c it., p. 1 2 7 . 1 9 5 5 - 6 4 : H a n d b o o k o f A ir lin e S ta tis tic s , 1 9 6 5 E d itio n , o p . c it., p . 1 2 9 . 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 : A i r C a rrie r T ra ffic S ta tis tic s , (C iv il A e ro n a u tic s B o a rd ), D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 6 , p . 1 . 1 9 6 7 - 7 7 : B u re au o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s . will have an impact on pilot employment not adequately accounted for in an equation that explains historical changes in employment. The number of new aircraft should grow more rapidly than in the past. The passenger and freight capacity of aircraft is expected to expand, while average airborne speed, influenced strongly by the past introduction of jets, will tend to increase at a slower rate in the future. In terms of model development, these changes may reflect a major modifi cation in the environment. Such a limitation, of course, is inherent in all projection models but may be particu larly applicable to air carrier operations. The equation finally selected to project pilot employ ment by route air carriers was of the linear form y = a + bi Xi + b2 x + b3 x3, where y represents employment of pilots, X! revenue hours flown, x2 speed, and x3 time. y = -22,509 + .005006 (.0008) + .09187 X2 - .460801 (.0292) (.3600) The basic data used in the multiple regression equation are shown in table 23, and the actual and computed levels of pilot employment and the projected employment requirements are presented in chart 5. Table 24 provides additional information on the statisti cal relationship between the variables selected. The three variables in the equation “ explain” 95 percent of the variation in employment of pilots over the 1953-66 period. Although the number of observa tions is too small for the Durbin-Watson statistic to apply, this statistic computed as a matter of routine was 1.79, which would indicate that unexplained residuals 24 on a year-to-year basis for a larger sample could be distributed randomly about the line of regression. In other words, the Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.79 is not inconsistent with a randomly distributed series for a larger sample. Finally, the independent variable taken together—revenue aircraft hours and average airborne speed—are statistically significant at the 95 percent level. The time variable is much less significant. Revenue aircraft hours. The impact of annual revenue aircraft hours on the requirement for pilots is quite clear. As hours flown increase, the demand for pilots will also increase (all else remaining constant). The inter action of total revenue passenger miles and average airborne speed are reflected in revenue aircraft hours. As the number of miles increase, speed remaining constant, hours rise (all else remaining constant), increasing the requirements for pilots. Similarly, if speed increases and miles flown remain constant, the demand for pilots declines (all else remaining constant; for example, the fleet mix of aircraft). Therefore, both quantitatively, in terms of the equation, and qualitatively, in terms of what could be expected empirically, an increase in revenue aircraft hours normally will have a positive influence on pilot requirements. Average airborne speed. The second independent variable, average airborne speed, is used in the equation not as speed per se, which is accounted for in the revenue aircraft hours variable, but as a proxy for factors such as the changing composition of the fleets, the utilization rates of the various types of aircraft, and the general complexity of air carrier operations. In other words, the variable is an indicator of the type of technology and its influence on pilot requirements as it affects the nature of air carrier operations: for example, the rapid increase in average airborne speed in the late 1950’s and in the 1960’s (table 23) reflects the Table 24. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for pilots in U.S. route air carriers (method B) I ndependent variable A 1 / ..................................... B ? / ........................................ C ? / ..................................... A l / , B 2 / ............................. A 1 / , C 3 / ........................... A 1 / , b ? / . c 3 / .................. 1 /a 2 /b 2 /c Variables Projected statistically Standard pilot significant error o f em ploym ent estimate (t-value) (1977) p = .05 4 5 ,2 9 3 2 6 ,4 19 31,8 88 4 7,0 47 4 5 ,8 25 4 7 ,8 3 4 i/A 2 /3 3 /c V A , 2 /0 1 /A , 3 / c 1 /A ,2 /B = Revenue a irc ra ft hours. = Average a irb o rn e speed. = T im e . SOURCE: Bureau o f L ab o r S tatistics. 2,911 2,315 1,964 1,014 1,326 986 2 Durbin-Watson (based on 14 years o f data) 0 .4 6 .66 .75 .94 .90 .95 0.21 .84 .88 1.46 .89 1.79 r CHART 5 EMPLOYMENT OF PILOTS IN U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, ACTUAL 1 953-66, A N D ESTIMATED 1 9 5 3 -6 6 , 1972, A N D 1977 (METHOD B) _____ -------- X x = REVENUE AIRCRAFT HOURS X 2 = AVERAGE AIRBORNE SPEED X 3 = TIME ACTUAL CALCULATED EMPLOYMENT (000) y = -22,509 + .005006 X* + .091857 X 2 - .460801 X 3 (.0008) (.0292) (.3600) 1953 55 57 59 61 63 65 1977 SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. 25 continuing introduction of jet aircraft into the fleet and, theoretically, should have resulted in a reduction of pilot requirements (all else remaining constant). However, not only did jet aircraft generally require more pilots and crews per aircraft during this period (more complex technology and higher utilization), but the preparation time for pilots in relation to actual flying time also increased. (See chart 4.) This increase had a positive impact on requirements for pilots. In short, the average airborne speed in the late 1950’s and 1960’s serves as a proxy for the impact of the changing technology and environment of air carrier operations during this period. BLS estimates, derived from FAA forecasts, show that the average airborne speed of aircraft will increase at a much slower pace through 1977. According to FAA,26 the substitution of jet for propeller-driven craft will be completed in the early 1970’s. Thus, the impact of jet aircraft on pilot requirements will not be as important a factor through most of the 1970’s as during the late 1950’s and 1960’s. Therefore, the effect of the expected slowdown in the growth of the speed variable on pilot requirements aptly simulates what should be expected over the projection period as the technology and environment of air carrier operations changes. Admittedly, average airborne speed is a crude factor to measure the net impact of all the complex and diverse factors that affect requirements for pilots. However, data were limited, and attempts to develop variables more directly representing the influence of factors such as the mix of aircraft were not successful. Test equations became extremely complex and unwieldy, and the quality of the data inputs became questionable, notwith standing the practical problem of adequately projecting these variables before an estimate of pilot employment in the target year could be developed. Time. Time as an independent variable in the method B equation measures the net impact of the changing relationship among revenue aircraft hours, the proxy variable, and pilot employment during the 1953-66 period. It may, for example, be measuring a general increase in the efficiency of air carrier operations over the period caused by factors such as improved schedul ing of flights, improved aid to pilot flight preparation, arid economies of scale. Time in the equation (with other influences being held constant) has a negative influence On requirements for pilots. If revenue aircraft hours and speed were unchanged from one year to the 26A viation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 3, p. 22. 26 Table 25. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for mechanics in U.S. route air carriers 1independent variable 1 / ..................................... B2 / ..................................... a C3 / ..................................... A 1 / B 2 / ........................... A 1/ C 3 / ........................... A ! / , b 2 / , c 3 / ................. VA 2 /b 3 /C Variables Projected statistically mechanic significant em ploym ent (t-value) (1977) p = .05 61,9 48 46,801 5 4,0 88 6 4,7 79 62,811 6 5 ,8 4 4 2 /b 3/c 1 /A ,2 /B 3/C ! / a , 2 /b Standard error of estimate R2 Durbin-Watson (based on 14 years o f data) 4,657 2,3 2 6 2,1 2 6 1,497 1,993 1,474 0 .2 6 .81 .85 .93 .88 .94 0 .22 1.09 1.03 1.72 1.02 2 .02 = Revenue a irc ra ft hours. = A verage a irb o rn e speed. - T im e . SOURCE: B u re a u 'o f L a b o r S tatistics. next, about 460 fewer pilots would be needed to maintain the level of air carrier operations. The magni tude of the impact of the time variable appears reasonable. The 1977 U.S. route air carrier pilot employment projection developed through method B is 47,800. (See chart 5.) Supplemental airline and commercial operators pilot employment in 1977, not covered by this tech nique, is estimated at about 3,000; this increase brings the total U.S. air carrier pilot projection to nearly 51,000. This estimate is nearly identical to the estimate derived through method A. (See table 22.) U.S. air carrier mechanic projection method A number of variables were selected and regressed separately and in combination against mechanic employ ment in U.S. route air carriers for the period 1953-66. All variables were analyzed before the explanatory equation was selected and used to project mechanic employment requirements. The combination of variables best explaining mechanic employment in U.S. route air carriers over the 1953-66 period was revenue aircraft hours, average airborne speed, and time. The explanatory variables and the form of the equation were the same as those selected for projecting pilot employment (page 24) and are as follows: y = -16,158 + .004739 X! + .138728 X2 - .623520 X3 (.0013) (.0437) (.5383) The basic data used in the equation are shown in table 23, and the actual and computed levels of mechanic employment and the projected requirements are presented in chart 6. Table 25 provides additional information on the statistical relationships among the variables selected. In summary, the three independent variables together explain about 94 percent of the CHART 6 EMPLOYMENT OF MECHANICS IN U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, ACTUAL 1 9 5 3-6 6 , A N D ESTIMATED 195 3-6 6 , 1972, A N D 1977 Xx = REVENUE AIRCRAFT HOURS X2 = AVERAGE AIRBORNE SPEED X3 = TIME ACTUAL CALCULATED y = -16,158 + .004739 Xx + .138728 X2 - .623520 X3 (.0013) (.0437) (.5383) 65,800 65 58,400 EMPLOYMENT (000) 55 45 35 25 _l_____ l_ 1953 55 57 59 i i i 61 63 65 ___I________________ I 1972 1977 SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. 27 variation in mechanic employment between 1953 and 1966. The unexplained residuals are not inconsistent with being distributed randomly. Both hours and speed are statistically significant in the equation; time is much less so. Based on the information available, a final projection for mechanics of 67,000 for 1977 and 58,500 for 1972 seems reasonable. These projected require ments levels are somewhat above the computed levels but well within the possible range of error in the computed projection. (See table 25.) This upward adjustment was made to reflect the anticipated ratio of mechanics to aircraft. (See discussion, page —) In addition to mechanics employed by certificated route air carriers, a relatively small number of mechanics are employed by supplemental and commercial opera tors. The number of mechanics employed by these carriers is estimated at about 2,500 in 1972 and 3,000 in 1977; the total U.S. air carrier mechanic employment projections are 61,000 for 1972 and 70,000 for 1977. Revenue aircraft hours. Annual revenue aircraft hours is a very important determinant of the requirements for mechanics. Given fleet size and mix, the demand for mechanics rises as revenue aircraft hours increase. Average airborne speed. Speed, in the equation explaining mechanic employment, functions in much the same manner as in the equation explaining pilot employ ment. It is a proxy for the changing mix and utilization of aircraft and the level of technology embodied in the aircraft. In addition, the general efficiency of the process of providing fleet maintenance is also reflected by the speed value in the equation. The problems involved in performing multiple regression analysis for the air carrier industry and the limitations of proxy variables were discussed earlier. (See pp. 22 and 24.) Time. Time as an independent variable in the equa tion explains the net impact of the changing relationship between revenue aircraft hours, the proxy variable speed, and mechanic employment during the 1953-66 period. Moreover, time may be measuring a long-term improvement in the reliability of aircraft equipment and in the efficiency of aircraft maintenance and repair services. According to the results of the equation, if revenue aircraft hours and speed were unchanged from 1 year to the next, about 624 fewer mechanics would be needed to maintain the fleet in the second year. Similar to the impact of time in the equation for projecting pilot requirements, the magnitude of the impact appears reasonable in this equation. 28 Table 26. Ratio of mechanics to aircraft, U.S. route air carriers, 1953-67 Year 1953 ................................................................... 1954 ......................................................... 1955 ................................................................... 1956 ......................................................................... 1957 ......................................................................... 1958 ......................................................................... 1959 ......................................................................... 1960 ......................................................................... 1 9 6 1 ......................................................................... 1962 ......................................................................... 1963 ......................................................................... 1 96 4 ......................................................................... 1965 ......................................................................... 1966 ......................................................................... 1967 ......................................................................... Mechanics A irc ra ft Ratio o f mechanics to aircraft 2 7 ,4 0 0 2 6 ,1 0 0 3 0 ,4 0 0 3 2 .7 0 0 3 2 ,9 0 0 3 0 ,8 0 0 3 2 ,8 0 0 3 4 ,5 0 0 3 4 ,0 6 5 3 4 ,9 2 5 3 4 ,4 5 3 3 9 ,3 6 0 4 1,6 67 4 5 ,3 2 7 5 0 ,0 1 6 1,421 1 .446 1,480 1 ,723 1,835 1,895 1,850 1,867 1,877 1,831 1,832 1 ,863 1,896 2 ,027 2 ,1 8 8 19.3 18.0 20.5 19.0 17.9 16.3 17.7 18.5 18.1 19.1 18.8 21.1 2 2.0 2 2.4 22.9 S O U R C E : 1 9 5 3 -6 0 : E m p lo y m e n t R e qu irem e n ts a n d Changing O ccu p a tio n a l S tru c tu re in C iv il A v ia tio n , o p . c it., p p . 1 8 and 2 1 . 1 9 6 1 -6 6 : F A A S ta tis tic a l H and b o o k o f A v ia tio n , o p . c it .f 1 9 6 2 -6 7 E d itio n s . 1 9 6 7 : Facts a n d Figures, 1968, o p . c it., pp. 3 8 and 4 0 . To verify the reasonableness of the above mechanic projections, mechanic to aircraft ratios were computed for the period 1953-66 and compared with the corre sponding ratio implied by the 1977 projections. (See table 26.) Based on the FAA forecasts of 3,500 aircraft in the fleet in 1977,27 the projection of 70,000 mechanics in 1977 results in a ratio of 20 mechanics to each aircraft—a ratio somewhat higher than in most of the 1953-66 period but somewhat below the level in the mid-1960’s. The ratios appeared reasonable for several reasons. First, the number of aircraft used to develop the ratios for the projection periods represent all U.S. air carriers, whereas those for the 1953-67 period are only for U.S. route air carriers. The smaller supplemental and commercial operators contract out a large share of their maintenance activities to general aviation repair stations. If these carriers were included in the 1953-67 data, the resulting ratios would be somewhat lower. Second, the recent high mechanic-to-aircraft ratios may be viewed as unusual—perhaps a response to recent rapid rises in air travel and aircraft utilization rates. Also, the training of mechanics probably was increased during this period as the shiftover from piston to jet aircraft and the introduction of second generation jets required reorien tation and refresher courses for some mechanics. Thus, with large numbers of mechanics being retrained, the employment level of mechanics rose atypically. On the other hand, the high ratios of mechanics to aircraft in the mid-1960’s may signify that the mix of aircraft of the future will require an increasing number of mechanics per aircraft. The increased complexity of instrumentation, for example, may more than offset the 21 Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 3, p. 22. Table 27. Preliminary and final estimates of the instructional flying aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft, 1967, 1972, and 1977 1964 fleet size Type of aircraft 1975 original FAA forecast of fleet size Final estimate of fleet size Preliminary estimates of fleet size Interpolated 1967 I nterpolated 1972 Extrapolated 1977 1967 1972 1977 T o t a l............ 6,855 14,550 9,059 12,731 15,952 8,680 12,775 16,399 Single-engine................. M ultiengine................. Turbine.......................... Rotorcraft.................... Other ............................. 6,545 120 9 73 108 14,000 200 30 170 150 8,666 142 20 109 122 12,200 178 39 168 146 15,357 215 34 188 158 8,315 134 9 96 126 12,267 175 32 150 151 15,734 210 58 227 170 S O U R C E : 1 9 6 4 F lee t S ize —General A viatio n —A Study and Forecast o f the F leet and its Use in 1975, op . c it., p p . 4 8 -5 2 . Pre lim in a ry and fin a l estim ates fo r 1 9 6 7 , 1 9 7 2 , and 1 9 7 7 developed by th e Bureau o f Labo r Statistics. easier to maintain jet engines, the greater efficiencies in aircraft maintenance, and the greater reliability of electronic equipment. The argument in favor of higher mechanic to aircraft ratios in the future was discarded, however, after discussing the matter with industry officials and evaluating the experience of other indus tries as to the effect of rapid changes in technology on mechanic levels. Thus, the projected employment requirements for mechanics by the air carriers of 61,000 and 70,000 for 1972 and 1977, respectively, were considered reasonable. General aviation requirements pilot and mechanic employment Hie lack of historical data on general aviation pilot and mechanic employment made more difficult the development of methods for projecting employment in this sector. The specificity needed in pilot projections (type of flying) further narrowed the potential approaches. The methods selected and described in the following paragraphs were designed to utilize the data that were already available or that could be developed from existing records. These methods, and those of the air carriers, were designed to reflect forecasts of key industry variables published by the FAA; for example, forecasts of the size and composition of the aircraft fleet and flight hours. They were structured so that future shifts in FAA forecasts may be incorporated into the procedures and their implications on manpower require ments measured. The employment projections presented 28A viation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit. in this study reflect, and are dependent upon, the realization of general aviation forecasts prepared by FAA.28 General aviation pilot projection method In general, the procedure selected to project general aviation pilot employment requirements by type of flying was (1) to construct current pilot-to-aircraft ratios; (2) project these relationships to the target years; and (3) apply the projected relationship to aircraft fleet forecasts. This procedure assumes that there exists a relationship between changes in the number of aircraft operated by the various sectors of general aviation and the requirements for pilots. The three basic inputs used in this system are: 1. Current pilot employment by type of flying. 2. Fleet size for each flying activity, by type of aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977. 3. Pilot-to-aircraft ratios for each type of flying activity, by type of aircraft, 1967, 1972, and 1977. Current pilot em ploym ent. In the past, studies conducted to determine future pilot needs in general aviation have been hampered by the complete lack of reliable data on the current employment of professional pilots. The availability of current employment is essen tial, of course, as a base upon which to build projections. To establish current pilot employment, the FAA was requested to prepare a special tabulation of pilot employment from active aeromedical records. This tabulation provided an unduplicated count of all pilots residing in the United States who had undergone the required medical examination during the 15-month 29 period ending August 1967. This tabulation identified both the occupation and industry of employment of the pilots and made possible the elimination of all nonpro fessional pilots from consideration in the pilot count. For example, those reporting their primary occupation as other than pilot were deleted. Similarly, pilots employed outside of general aviation, such as airlines and government, were removed. The following tabulation shows pilot employment levels in 1967 for each type of flying activity, derived from FAA aeromedical records: T ype o f flying 1967 P ilo t e m p l o y m e n t Total, general a v ia t io n ................ .......................... Aerial a p p lica tio n .................... ....................... Instructional f l y in g ................ ....................... Other f l y i n g ............................. ....................... Total, not sp e c ifie d ....................... ....................... E xecu tive.................................... ....................... Air T axi....................................... ....................... Industrial/special....................... ....................... 25,028 1,543 3,336 ^00 19,649 2 11,893 *6,224 2 1,532 1 Based on the small size and low utilization o f the aircraft in this flying activity, pilot employment was estimated to be about 500 in 1967. It should be noted that while this is basically a judgment estimate, it seems reasonable and, even if it is in substantial error, it would have little impact on total pilot remrirements during the next decade. 2 Only a single employment control total for executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying activities could be obtained from the FAA medical records data. To determine the 1967 employment levels for each o f these flying activities, the control total was used to establish pilot/aircraft ratios. The ratios then were applied to estimates o f the aircraft fleet by type o f aircraft in each activity and the resulting pilot employment summed to a total for each activity. General aviation aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft and flying activity, 1967' 1972, and 1977. Estimates of the general aviation fleet size by type of aircraft and type of flying were derived through the use of two FAA reports. The first provided 1975 fleet forecasts by type of aircraft for each activity.29 The second provided revised forecasts at an aggregated level but did not identify the information on aircraft by type of flying (table 11). To move from the forecasts presented in these reports to the final fleet estimates required by the projection technique, three separate steps were required. First, using the 1964-75 data presented in the first FAA report, preliminary 1967,1972, and 1977 fleet estimates 29General A viation—A S tu dy and Forecast o f the F leet and Its Use in 1975 (Federal Aviation Administration, July 1966). 30 General Aviation, A S tu dy and Forecast o f the F leet and Its Uses, 1975, (Federal Aviation Administration, July 1966), tables 24-53. 30 were developed by type of flying and type of aircraft by extrapolating the 1964-75 estimated aircraft fleet to 1977 and interpolating to derive 1967 and 1972 estimates. These preliminary estimates then were totaled by type of aircraft and compared with the more recent FAA forecasts. Revised estimates of fleet size for each type of flying then were computed by forcing, on a simple prorata basis, the preliminary estimates to the more current FAA forecasts. (Table 27 illustrates this procedure and shows the resulting 1967, 1972, and 1977 fleet estimates for instructional flying.) Since this study concerns only professional pilots, the final step was to eliminate from the fleet estimates all aircraft used in personal flying, as well as business aircraft flown by nonprofessionals. Aircraft used for personal purposes were removed simply by subtracting from the total general aviation fleet all aircraft used in personal flying. On the other hand, the business fleet was first divided into two components—executive and other business—on the basis of the proportion reported in each activity in 1964. The aircraft in the “ other business” component then were subtracted from the general aviation fleet estimates. Table 28 shows the final estimates and projections of fleet size for each flying activity by type of aircraft derived through this procedure. General aviation pilot/aircraft ratios. Having devel oped estimates of pilot employment and aircraft fleet for each flying activity, an overall pilot-to-aircraft ratio then could be computed (pilot employment/number of aircraft) for each type of flying in general aviation. However, in order that final pilot employment projec tions reflect the forecasted shifts in aircraft fleet mix during the next decade, it was necessary to establish pilot-to-aircraft ratios for each type of aircraft in each flying activity. Such ratios were computed separately for aerial application, instructional flying, and other flying. Only one set of ratios representing executive transportation, air taxi, and industrial/special flying combined could be developed, since pilot employment data from FAA aeromedical records were limited to a single control total covering all three of these activities. Although a distinct set of ratios for each flying activity would be preferable, the single set may be adequate since the aircraft utilization patterns reported30 for these flying activities are quite similar. Table 29 illustrates the procedures followed in developing pilot/aircraft ratios for executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying combined. First, the 1964 aircraft fleet and total flight hours by type of aircraft Table 28. Estim ated general aviation aircraft fle e t,!/ by type o f flyin g and type o f aircraft, 1 9 6 7 ,1 9 7 2 , and 1977 Type of aircraft Type of flying Total aircraft Single-engine Multiengine Turbine Rotorcraft Other Executive transportation: 1967 ......................................... 1972 ......................................... 1977 ......................................... 12,610 17,500 22,817 5,974 7,203 8,103 5,601 6,724 7,978 705 2,993 5,814 330 580 922 — Air-taxi: 1967 1972 1977 ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... 7,029 11,198 15,270 4,091 5,567 6,810 2,300 4,151 5,880 172 811 1,618 456 642 919 10 27 43 Aerial application: 1967 ......................................... 1972 ......................................... 1977 ......................................... 5,169 6,240 7,081 4,905 5,859 6,542 87 95 100 — — 177 286 439 — — Industrial/special: 1967 ......................................... 1972 ......................................... 1977 ......................................... 1,867 2,206 2,513 1,348 1,553 1,685 236 276 306 — 279 371 514 4 6 8 Instructional: 1967 ......................................... 1972 ......................................... 1977 ......................................... 8,680 12,775 16,399 8,315 12,267 15,734 134 175 210 9 32 58 96 150 227 126 151 170 2,235 2,814 3,302 1,697 2,157 2,522 360 325 273 7 22 38 100 172 271 71 138 198 — — — — — — Other: 1967 1972 1977 ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... -1 /E x clu d es a irc ra ft in personal and business fly in g e x c e p t execu tive tra n s p o rta tio n . SOURCE: Bureau o f L abo r Statistics. reported by the FAA were used to obtain average annual hours flown by type of aircraft (Col. 3). The annual flight hours then were applied to the estimated 1967 aircraft fleet resulting in estimates of total hours flown by each type of aircraft for 1967. Total 1967 hours then were adjusted for the estimated crew compliment (Col. 7), and the resulting distribution (Col. 8) was used to distribute the total pilot population (19,649) (Col. 9) among the various type aircraft. Individual pilot/aircraft ratios for each type of aircraft then were computed by simply relating the number of pilots to the number of aircraft (Col. 10). This procedure was followed for each of the other flying activities, i.e.,-aerial application, instructional flying, and other flying activities. Estimates of pilots per crew for multi-engine aircraft varied among the flying activities, depending on the proportion of aircraft over 800 h.p. to the total number of multi-engine aircraft in the various flying activities. The estimated number of pilots per crew for turbine powered aircraft was based on normal crew compliments reported by FAA.31 The final estimates of 1967 pilot-to-aircraft ratios developed for general aviation, by type of aircraft and type of flying, are shown in table 30. Projections of pilot-to-aircraft ratios in general avia tion to 1972 and 1977 were based on expected changes in aircraft utilization patterns (hours flown), assuming that regulated crew sizes in each type of flying activity will not change over the projection period. Table 31 shows that FAA forecasts little change in the average flight hours for most types of aircraft flown by professional pilots in general aviation, the sole exception 31 Ibid. 31 Table 29. Procedure for estimating executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying ts ) pilot/aircraft ratios, by type of aircraft, 1967 Type of aircraft Aircraft fleet1/ (1) Total . . . Single-engine . . . Multiengine . . . Turbine.............. Rotorcraft . . . . Other ................. 1964 total hours flown^/ (In thousands) 1964 average hours flown per aircraft (Col. 2 t Col. 1) 1967 estimated aircraft fleet 3/ 1967 estimated hours flown (In thousands) (Col. 3 x Col. 4) Pilots per crew Weight flight hours (In thousands) (Col. 5 x Col. 6) Percent distribution of weight flight hours 1967 estimated number of pilots (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) — 28,205 8,189 — 21,506 6,428 — 7,246 100.0 19,649 18,333 8,652 285 932 3 5,091 2,643 127 326 2 277.7 305.5 445.6 349.8 666.7 11,413 8,137 877 1,065 14 3,169 2,486 391 373 9 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.00 1.00 3,169 3,108 587 373 9 43.7 42.9 8.1 5.2 .1 8,587 8,429 1,592 1,022 20 1967 estimated pilot/aircraft ratios (Col. 9 -rCol. 4) .7524 1.0359 1.8153 .9596 1.4286 S O U R C E : 1 9 64 A ircra ft Fleet — General A viatio n —A Study and Forecast o f the F leet and Its Use in 1975, op. cit., appendix tables C, I, and M , pp. 109, 115, and 119. 1 9 6 4 to tal hours flo w n —Ib id., appendix tables D , J, and N, pp. 110, 116, and 120. 1967 estimated aircraft fle e t—Bureau o f Labor Statistics. See table 28 . Pilots per C rew —General A v ia tio n A S tudy and Forecast o f the F leet and Its Use in 1975, op. cit., tables 42 and 43 . 1967 estimated number of pilots—pilots population from te x t tabulation, p. 9 3 . Table 30. Estimated ratio of pilots to aircraft in general aviation, by type of aircraft and type of flying, 1967 Type of aircraft Type of flying Single-engine Multiengine Executive transportation.................................................................. 0.75 A ir-taxi............................................................................................... .75 Turbine Rotorcraft 1.04 1.82 0.96 1.43 1.04 1.82 .96 1.43 Other Aerial application............................................................................. .29 .13 I ndustrial/special............................................................................. .75 1.04 1.82 .96 1.43 Instructional...................................................................................... .39 .43 .78 .39 .13 O th e r............................................................................................. .15 .37 1.71 .80 .31 N O TE : Ratios have been rounded for presentation. S O U R C E : Bureau of Labor Statistics. . — .69 — being a 25 percent rise in the flight hours of turbinepowered aircraft. To reflect FAA’s forecast of a rise in turbine aircraft utilization in BLS projections of pilot/aircraft ratios, the 1967 turbine ratios for each type of flying activity were increased by 12.5 percent and 25 percent for 1972 and 1977, respectively. The 1972 and 1977 ratios for all other types of aircraft were held at their 1967 levels. The last step in projecting employment requirements for pilots in general aviation was to apply the individual pilot/aircraft ratios developed for 1972 and 1977, by type of aircraft, to the corresponding estimate of fleet size in each flying activity. (See table 32 for an illustration of this procedure as applied to instructional flying.) The resulting number of pilots, by type of aircraft, then were totaled for each flying activity. (See table 18 for final projections of pilot employment requirements in general aviation.) It should be noted again that the development of satisfactory pilot projection methods was hampered severely by the lack of relevant statistical data. Should data such as an annual series on pilot employment in general aviation become available, the method presented here should be reappraised. General aviation mechanic projection method The method used to project mechanic employment requirements in general aviation involved the develop ment of 1967 ratio of mechanics to total general aviation flight hours, and the application of this ratio to FAA forecasts32 of flight hours in 1972 and 1977. This procedure assumes that increases in mechanic produc tivity-resulting from improved tools, testing equipment, and the centralization of repair activities will be offset by the continued trend toward larger, more complex aircraft with higher maintenance requirements. Of the available data, flight hours were selected as the best measure of future growth in mechanic employment, since a large share of aircraft maintenance results from regulations requiring aircraft inspection and overhaul based on the number of hours flown. To determine a 1967 mechanic employment level, two sources were utilized. First, an estimate was made of mechanic employment in certificated repair stations by tabulating the number of technical personnel (mechanics Table 31. Average annual utilization of general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1964, and forecast to 1975 Average annual utilization (hours flow n) Ty pe o f aircraft 1964 1975 Percent change, 1964-75 Single engine piston (four-places and o v e r). . . 176 172 - 2.3 Multiengine p i s t o n .................................................. 278 2 60 - 6.5 Turbine ...................................................................... 4 48 560 + 2 5 .0 R o t o r c r a ft.................................................................. 342 337 - 1.5 O ther ............................................................................ 88 83 - 5.7 S O U R C E : G eneral A v ia tio n —A S tu d y and Forecast o f th e F le e t and Its Use in 1 9 7 5 , o p . c it., ta b le 2 ; P t. I l l , p . 1 9 . and repairmen) shown on each repair station’s annual inspection report (FAA form 3572).33 Employees of certificated repair stations outside general aviation, i.e., government and air carriers, were identified and deducted from the total. Next, estimates of mechanics and repairmen employed in noncertificated repair sta tions were obtained from unpublished records main tained at each FAA regional office. By combining the data from these sources, mechanic employment in 1967 was estimated to be 50,400 (table 16). Using this employment estimate, the ratio of mechanic to flight hours was computed and applied to the FAA 1972 and 1977 forecast of flight hours in general aviation (table 12). Following this procedure, requirements for mechanics were projected to increase to 72,100 in 1972 and 92,800 in 1977. Government pilot and mechanic employment requirements The projections of pilot employment requirements in government are judgmental, based on an analysis of available historical data and discussions with knowledge able government officials. The relatively small numbers of pilots and mechanics employed in this sector, coupled with limited data available, precluded the development of a projection model. Current levels of pilot and mechanic employment in nonmilitary government agen cies was compiled from several sources. The U.S. Civil Service Commission provided historical information on most pilots employed by Federal agencies. Additional data were obtained directly from the principal Federal agencies employing pilots and mechanics. State and local government estimates were developed from the special tabulation of aeromedical records provided by the FAA. To project employment, historical data relating to 32A viation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 8, p. 27. Federal Government employment of pilots and 33 In addition to the total number o f technical personnel, this mechanics were analyzed. Discussions concerning prob report also enumerates separately the number o f mechanics and able future developments were held with officials of repairmen who were certificated. 33 Table 32. Procedure for projecting employment requirements for pilots in instructional flying, by type of aircraft, 1972 and 1977 1972 Type of aircraft T o t a l ................................................... 1977 Aircraft fleet Pilot/aircraft ratios Pilot employment requirements (Col. 1 x Col. 2) Aircraft fleet Pilot/aircraft ratios Pilot employment requirements (Col. 4 x Col. 5) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 12,775 — 4,927 16,399 — 6,344 ............... 12,267 .3870 4,747 15,734 .3870 6,089 M u ltie n g in e ......................................................... 175 .4254 74 210 .4254 89 Tu rb ine.................................................................. 32 .77781/ 28 58 .77781/ 56 R o to rc ra ft............................................................ 150 .3854 58 227 .3854 87 O th e r ..................................................................... 151 .1349 20 170 .1349 23 Single-engine (four-places and over) ■1/1967 pilot/aircraft ratios for turbine aircraft were adjusted upwards by 12.5 percent to derive the 1972 estimate and by 25 percent for the 1977 estimate; ail other ratios were maintained at the 1967 level. SOURCE: Aircraft Fleet—data from table 27. Pilot/aircraft ratios—data from table 29 (unrounded). most of the principal Federal agencies employing these workers. Based on this information, requirements for pilots are expected to increase from an estimated 2,000 in 1967 to 2,400 by 1972 and 2,900 by 1977 (table 19). Mechanic employment, however, is expected to remain at about 1,100 throughout the projection period. Pilot and mechanic replacement requirements For the purpose of this study, replacement require ments relate to the number of pilots and mechanics who will be needed to replace those who leave employment due to normal, early, and disability retirement, and death.34 Lack of data prevented the development of a single, systematic procedure for estimating pilot and mechanic replacement needs for each sector of civil 34 To fully appraise the overall requirements for pilots mechanics in civil aviation over the next decade, transfers out o f these occupations should be considered. However, lack o f appropriate data made the development o f such estimates impossible. A transfer out o f an occupation occurs when a worker moves to another occupation, e.g., from airline pilot to real estate salesman or from aircraft mechanic to automobile mechanic. Hypothetically, if 5 percent o f the mechanics employed in civil aviation transferred out each year over the next decade, about 65,000 job openings would be created. However, caution should be used in interpreting such estimates. An analysis o f the supply o f workers in the occupation, not attempted in this study, would include data on transfers to aircraft mechanic from other occupations. The magnitude o f transfers-in theoretically could exceed, equal, or fall short o f the number o f transfers-out. Thus, the number o f transfers-in can reduce the importance o f transfers-out in any evaluation o f occupational requirements. Equally important, the experience level o f workers transferring into an occupation should be evaluated in developing estimates o f training requirements. 34 aviation. In air carriers, all pilots reaching age 60 during the decade ahead were assumed to have retired. Esti mates of early retirements, disability retirements, and deaths were based on recent industry experience. In general aviation and government, all pilots reaching age 65 were assumed to have retired. Losses due to death, early retirement, etc., were developed using the BLS age specific separation rates. These rates also were used to estimate mechanic losses in all three sectors of civil aviation. U.S. air carrier p ilo t re p la ce m en t needs. The tech nique used to estimate U.S. air carrier pilot losses due to retirement and death were based on the following major assumptions: (1) The mandatory retirement age for U.S. air carrier pilots will remain at age 60, and early retirement provisions will remain open to most airline andpilots at age 55; (2) The number of pilots leaving employment for other than normal retirement, i.e., for early retirement, disability retirement, and death, will follow patterns similar to recent experience; and (3) the new pilots hired by air carriers will be limited to persons under 45 years of age. During the next decade, a large proportion of replacement needs will stem from the retirement of currently employed pilots. (According to this study, retirements alone will account for 70 percent of all replacement needs.) Currently, FAA regulations require that air carrier pilots retire at 60 years of age. Most company, union, and Government officials indicate that a change in the mandatory retirement age is unlikely over the next decade. Since all pilots currently over 50 years of age will retire or otherwise leave the labor force during the 1967-77 decade, the first step was to obtain an age distribution of currently employed U.S. air carrier pilots. For this purpose, a special unpublished tabulation was prepared from FAA aeromedical records reporting the age distribution of all air carrier pilots. Pilot retirement losses then were derived by totaling the number of pilots reaching the mandatory retirement age during each of the projection p eriods-1968-72 and 1973-77. For example, all air carrier pilots currently 55-59 years of age will leave the work force by 1972. This procedure accounted for losses, due to all causes, that will be experienced by pilots currently 50 years of age or over.35 In addition, it was necessary to estimate the number of pilots currently under 50 years of age who will take advantage of early retirement options. Air carrier pilots, currently 45 to 50 years of age, will be eligible for early retirement some time during the 1973-77 period. Esti mates of early retirements for these pilots were devel oped from a special survey couaucted by the Air Transport Association.36 This survey reported the num ber of early retirements experienced during 1966. By relating early retirements to the eligible pilot population (those 55-60 years of age) in 1966, an early retirement rate of 1.84 percent was derived. Estimates of early retirements for the 1973-77 period then were computed by applying this rate to the number of pilots eligible for early retirement each year beginning in 1973 (the year those currently 50 years of age are eligible for early retirement). The remaining replacement requirements covered by this study, i.e., those stemming from disability retire ment and death of persons under 50 years of age, were developed based on 1966 experience reported in the previously cited special ATA survey. An annual rate was developed from this survey that measured the number of pilots leaving the work force in 1966 either because of disability, retirement, or death. Estimates for the next decade then were computed by applying this rate (.35 percent) to the total pilot employment projection needs for each year from 1968 to 1977. (See table 9 for estimates of U.S. air carrier pilot replacement needs.) G eneral aviation an d g o ve rn m en t p ilo t re p la cem en t needs. The estimates of retirement and death require ments for general aviation and government pilots were based on a number of assumptions. First, to facilitate estimating pilot retirements, it was assumed that general aviation and government pilots will retire by age 65. Since fewer than 150 pilots over 65 years of age were employed in general aviation in 1967, this stipulation had little impact on future pilot needs. Second, the age distribution of pilots in general aviation and government was assumed to remain constant through the decade ahead. Finally, it was assumed that “age specific separation rates,” developed by BLS and based on the worklife experience of all males, are applicable to general aviation and government pilots in comparable age groups under 60 years of age.37 The development of estimates of general aviation and government pilot losses due to retirements and deaths involved two major procedures. First, the distribution of pilots by current age was based on the special tabulation prepared from FAA aeromedical records. All pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods (1968-72 and 1973-77) were counted as losses to employment. Next, estimates were made of the number of pilots who will not reach age 65 by 1977, but who will leave the work force due to retirement or death, by applying BLS 5-year age specific separation rates to comparable pilot age distribution intervals. To carry out 35 Early retirements are not identified separately for those this procedure, it was necessary to estimate the mid pilots currently over 50 years o f age. Consequently, die resulting points of employment requirements in each projection estimates o f losses may be somewhat understated for the first period (1968-72 and 1973-77) through interpolation.38 5-year period and overstated for the second 5-year period. Furthermore, the estimates include a small number o f pilot The mid-point employment estimates then were distrib losses for reasons other than retirement or death, such as uted among the age groups using the current age promotion or transfer to another industry o f employment. distribution obtained from the FAA aeromedical rec 36Air Transport Association o f America, unpublished survey, June 1966, dated January 1967. ords. Finally, the BLS 5-year age specific separation 37 For a full discussion o f the development and use o f BLS rates were applied to employment in each age interval. separation rates, including their limitations, see Tomorrow's (See tables 33 and 34.) Total replacement needs then Manpower Needs, National M anpower Projections and a Guide were determined by summing estimated losses for all age to Their Use as a Tool in Developing State and Area Manpower Projections (BLS Bulletin 1606, Volume I, “Developing Area groups in each period, 1968-72 and 1973-77. Within Manpower Projections”) p. 47. general aviation, estimates of deaths and retirements 38 The mid-point o f each projection period was used to were established for each flying activity by distributing account for the retirement or death o f entrants into the occupation during the next decade. losses for each projection period among the separate 35 Table 33. Procedure for estimating general aviation pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-72 and 1973-77 Estimated distribution of employment Age group Percent distribution of pilots (1) Total . . . . 1 6 - 1 9 ................ 20-24 ................ 25-29 ............... 30-34 ............... 35-44 ............... 45-54 ................ 55-59 ................ 60 and over . . Mid-point 1968-72 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 3) Mid-point 1973-77 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 4) (2) (3) (4) 100.0 32,094 47,446 58 1,155 2,975 4,644 12,690 8,665 1,191 716 85 1,708 4,398 6,865 18,760 12,810 1,760 1,058 .18 3.60 9.27 14.47 39.54 27.00 3.71 2.23 5-Year age specific separation rates for males (5) .00762 .00882 .00903 .01485 .02917 .09162 .19614 U/> Deaths and retirements Total 1968-77 (Col. 7 + Col. 8) 1968-72 (Col. 3 x Col. 5) 1973-77 (Col. 4 x Col. 5) (6) (7) (8) 5,502 2,220 3,282 1 25 67 171 917 1,968 579 1,774 0 10 27 69 370 794 234 716 1 15 40 102 547 1,174 345 1,058 1 / a II pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods were counted as losses to employment. NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCE: Percent distribution of pilots—based on FAA aeromedical records. Five-year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers. Table 34. Procedure for estimating government pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Estimated distribution of employment Age group Percent distribution of pilots (1) Total . . . . 1 6 -1 9 ................ 20-24 ................ 25-29 ............... 30-34 ................ 35-44 ................ 45-54 ................ 55-59 ................ 60 and over '. . Mid-point 1968-72 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 3) Mid-point 1973-77 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 4) (2) (3) (4) 100.0 2,210 2,671 4 80 205 320 874 597 82 49 5 96 248 386 1,056 721 99 60 .18 3.60 9.27 14.47 39.54 27.00 3.71 2.23 5-Year age specific separation rates for males (5) .00762 .00882 .00903 .01485 .02917 .09162 .19614 d /) Deaths and retirements Total 1968-77 (Col. 7 + Col. 8) 1968-72 (Col. 3 x Col. 5) 1973-77 (Col. 4 x Col. 5) (6) (7) (8) 337 153 185 0 1 4 11 56 121 35 109 0 1 2 5 25 55 16 49 0 1 2 6 31 66 19 60 J / a II pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods were counted as losses to employment. NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCE: Percent distribution of pilots—based on FAA aeromedical records. Five-year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers. 36 Table 35. Estimated general aviation pilot retirements and deaths, by type of flying, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Estimated percent distribution of employment Retirement and deaths Type of flying Mid-point 1968-72 Mid-point 1973-77 Total 1968-72 1973-77 T o t a l ........................................................... 100.0 100.0 5,502 2,200 3,282 Executive transportation ......................................... A ir-ta xi......................................................................... Aerial application....................................................... I ndustrial/special................................... Instructional............................................................. Other ............................................................................ 48.2 26.5 5.4 5.2 12.9 1.8 50.1 28.1 4.3 4.1 11.9 1.6 2,713 1,510 260 251 676 92 1,070 589 119 116 286 40 1,@43 921 141 135 390 52 S O U R C E : Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 36. Procedure for estimating U.S. air carrier mechanic retirement and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Age group Percent distribution of airplane mechanics (1) Total . . . . 1 4 - 1 9 ............... 20-24 ................ 25-29 ............... 30-34 ............ 35-44 ............... 45-54 ............... 55-59 ............... 60-64 ............... 65 and over . . Estimated distribution of employment Mid-point 1968-72 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 3) Mid-point 1973-77 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 4) (2) (3) (4) 100.0 56,500 65,500 424 4,028 9,351 8,859 19,939 9,724 2,503 1,209 475 491 4,670 10,840 10,270 23,115 11,273 2,902 1,402 550 .75 7.13 16.55 15.68 35.29 17.21 4.43 2.14 .84 Deaths and retirements 5-Year age specific separation rates for males 1968-77 (Col. 7 + Col. 8) 1968-72 (Col. 3 x Col. 5) 1973-77 (Col. 4 x Col. 5) (5) (6) (7) (8) 6,663 3,086 3,577 7 77 182 285 1,256 1,924 1,060 1,346 526 3 36 84 132 582 891 491 623 244 4 41 98 153 674 1,033 569 723 282 .00762 .00882 .00903 .01485 .02917 .09162 .19614 .51542 .51273 NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCE: Percent distribution of mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960. Subject reports. Occupational Characteristics, final report PC (2)-7A. (U.S. Bureau of the Census), table 6, p. 75. 5-Year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers. 37 Table 37. Procedure for estimating general aviation mechanic retirement and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Estimated distribution of employment Age group Percent distribution of airplane mechanics (1) Total . . . . Mid-point 1968-72 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 3) Mid-point 1973-77 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 4) (2) (3) (4) 100.0 61,270 82,490 460 4,369 10,140 9,607 21,622 10,545 ‘2,714 1,311 515 619 5,882 13,652 12,934 29,111 14,197 3,654 1,765 693 .75 7.13 16.55 15.68 35.29 17.21 4.43 2.14 .84 1 4 -1 9 ................ 20-24 ................ 25-29 ................ 30-34 ................ 35-44 ................ 45-54 ................ 55-59 ................ 60-64 ................ 65 and over . . Retirements and deaths 5-Year age specific separation rates for males 1968-77 (Col. 7 + Col. 8) 1968-72 (Col. 3 x Col. 5) 1973-77 (Col. 4 x Col. 5) (5) (6) (7) (8) 7,850 3,347 4,503 9 91 215 335 1,480 2,267 1,249 1,585 619 4 39 92 143 631 966 532 676 264 5 52 123 192 849 1,301 717 909 355 .00762 .00882 .00903 .01485 .02917 .09162 .19614 .51542 .51273 taoTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCE: Percent distribution of airplane mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960, op. cit., table 6, p. 75. 5-Year age specific separa tion rates for males—Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers. Table 38. Procedure for estimating government mechanic retirements and death losses, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 Estimated distribution of employment Age group Percent distribution of airplane mechanics (1) Total . . . . 1 4 -1 9 ................ 20-24 ................ 25-29 ............... 30-34 ................ 35-44 ................ 45-54 ................ 55-59 ................ 60-64 ................ 65 and over . . Mid-point 1968-72 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 3) Mid-point 1973-77 (Col. 2 x total of Col. 4) (2) (3) (4) 100.0 1,100 1,100 8 78 182 172 388 189 49 24 9 8 78 182 172 388 189 49 24 9 .75 7.13 16.55 15.68 35.29 17.21 4.43 2.14 .84 Retirements and deaths 5-Year age specific separation rates for males 1968-77 (Col. 7 + Col. 8) 1968-72 (Col. 3 x Col. 5) 1973-77 (Col. 4 x Col. 5) (5) (6) (7) (8) 122 61 61 0 2 4 6 22 34 20 24 10 0 1 2 3 11 17 10 12 5 0 1 2 3 11 17 10 12 5 .00762 .00882 .00903 .01485 .02917 .09162 .19614 .51542 .51273 NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCE: Percent distribution of airplane mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960, op. cit., table 6, p. 75. 5-year age specific separation rates for males—Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers. 38 U.S. air carrier , general avia tio n , an d g o ve rn m en t m echanic rep la cem en t needs. A single method was 5-year age specific separation ratios were applied to employment in each age interval. Total replacement needs were derived by summing estimated losses for all age groups in each projection period. Tables 36-38 sho>* the steps followed and the resulting death and retire ment estimates for each sector of civil aviation. followed to estimate retirement and death losses for mechanics in each sector of civil aviation—air carriers, general aviation, and government. The procedure was as follows: First, estimated employment requirements at the mid-point of each projection period (1968-1972 and 1973-1977) were made through interpolation.39 Next, employment at each mid-point then was distributed by age group using the age distribution reported in the 1960 decennial Census of Population.40 Finally, the BLS 39 See footnote 38, p. 35. 40U.S. Census o f Population: 1960. Subject Reports. Oc cupational Characteristics, Final Report PC (2>7A . (U.S. Bureau o f the Census), table 6, p. 71. This procedure assumes that the age distribution o f mechanics remains constant during the 1960-77 period. A comparison o f the 1950 and 1960 Census data indicates that the age structure shifted upward during the 1950’s. However, this trend may not continue during the 1960’s and 1970’s because o f the large number o f young workers entering the labor force during these decades. general aviation flying activities on the basis of projected pilot employment requirements at the mid-point in each projection period. (See table 35.) 39 ☆ U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1970 O - 3«8-312 U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR MANPOWER ADMINISTRATION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20210 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID OFFICIAL BUSINESS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I | T H I R D C LA S S M A I L j
@FedFRASER