United States. Department of the Treasury and United States. Department of Housing and Urban Development. "April 2016," The Obama Administration's Efforts to Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners (April 2016). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/5162/item/530825, accessed on December 26, 2024.

Title: April 2016

Date: April 2016
Page 1
image-container-0 The Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD April 19, 2016 Since last summer, housing starts overall have moved sideways on net, as further increases in single-family starts have about offset a moderation in multifamily starts. However, the flatness in housing starts has yet to show through to residential investment because of the lags associated with housing construction. Residential investment rose at an annual rate of 10 percent in 2015Q4, contributing 0.3 percentage point to GDP growth, and available indicators suggest that residential investment saw another track for another sizable gain in 2016Q1. Meanwhile, residential construction employment has continued to rise steadily. Home price appreciation has moderated—from a double-digit pace in late 2013 and early 2014 to a more sustainable mid-single-digit pace now. This moderation occurs as high home values, in some areas, challenge affordability for potential homebuyers. However, access to credit continues to slowly expand to reach borrowers with lower credit quality. In addition, home price valuations look to be somewhat elevated relative to pre-bubble norms. Although some mortgage borrowers continue to struggle in the wake of the crisis, delinquency and foreclosure rates are closing in on their pre-crisis ranges. The number of distressed sales also continues to drop. This month’s dashboard includes a special topic that explores the degree to which the rebound in home prices since the Great Recession has supported consumer spending and how this “housing wealth effect” depends on the availability of credit and other factors.
image-container-1 1 April 2016 Pre-bubble norm (2000-2002 average) Trough Current level Current level versus pre- bubble norm (2000-2002 average) New 921 270 512 9.1% -44.4% Feb-11 Feb-16 Existing 4,779 3,060 4,510 6.8% -5.6% Jul-10 Feb-16 New 311 142 240 19 -71 Jul-12 Feb-16 thousands thousands Existing 1,836 1,550 1,650 -41 -186 Dec-15 Feb-16 thousands thousands Housing starts 1,289 353 764 14.5% -40.7% Mar-09 Mar-16 Building permits 1,257 337 727 9.3% -42.2% Jan-09 Mar-16 115.7 137.3 188.4 5.3% 62.8% Nov-11 Feb-16 Inflation-Adjusted 111.6 101.9 138.1 6.3% 23.8% CoreLogic HPI Nov-11 Feb-16 Housing affordability 127 101.1 174.9 -2.3% 38.2% Jul-06 Feb-16 59 8 58 6 -1 Jan-09 Apr-16 point(s) point(s) 152 117 153 -1 1 Oct-08 Apr-16 point(s) point(s) 1113 100 461 290 -653 2008-Q4 2015-Q4 thousands thousands 67.7 63.5 63.7 -0.8 -4 2015-Q2 2015-Q4 percentage point(s) percentage point(s) Weakened Improved Weakened Improved Improved Improved Housing Market Flash Tuesday, April 19, 2016 Improved Improved Current 12-month average versus year- earlier value Single-family homes Sales (thousands) Inventory of homes available for sale (thousands) Construction activity (thousands) Improved Weakened Household formation (thousands) Homeownership rate (percent) Homebuilder (NAHB, over 50 means majority view conditions positively) Home-buying conditions (Reuters/Umich, index = good time - bad time + 100) CoreLogic HPI Prices (index, Jan 2000 = 100) Improved Sentiment Demographics Improved Weakened (NAR, index=100 when median family income qualifies for 80% LTV mortgage on a median priced home) Housing Market Flash
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