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N@w Worklif©
EsSimaftes
U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 1982
Bulletin 2157
c , '■ ■.
Special Labor Force Report
New Worfclife
Estimates
U.S. Department of Labor
Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner
November 1982
Bulletin 2157
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
W ashington, D.C. 20402 - Price $3.2.”p
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::
This bulletin on new estimates of working life for men
and women is part of the Special Labor Force Report
series. It contains, in addition to a discussion of changes
in worklife expectancy since 1970—first published in the
Monthly Labor Review of March 1982—detailed work
ing life tables for 1977, worklife expectancies for 1970,
and a technical appendix.
The author, Shirley J. Smith, is a demographic stat
istician in the Division of Labor Force Studies.
Kenneth D. Buckley and Josephyne W. Price, of the
Data Services Group, assisted in the preparation of the
tables.
Material in this publication is in the public domain
and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced with
out permission.
P ag e
New worklife estimates reflect changing profile of labor fo rce .............................................
1
Tables of working life:
Men, 1977:
A -l. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years
remaining at each age by current labor force status............................................. 7
A-2. Age-specific transition probabilities and rates of transfer between states........ 8
A-3. Stationary population and labor force, status transfers, and transfers
remaining at each a g e ................................................................................................. 9
A-4. Person years of life lived by the stationary population at and beyond exact
age x ............................................................................................................................... 10
Women, 1977:
A-5. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years
remaining at each age by current labor force status..............................................
A-6. Age-specific transition probabilities and rates of transfer between states........
A-7. Stationary population and labor force, status transfers, and transfers
remaining at each a g e ................................................................................................
A-8. Person years of life lived by the stationary population at and beyond exact
agex ...............................................................................................................................
14
Men, 1970:
A-9. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years
remaining at each age by current labor force status.............................................
15
Women, 1970:
A -10. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years
remaining at each age by current labor force status.............................................
16
Technical appendix...........................................................................................................................
17
IV
11
12
13
M®wworklife ©stimafss r@fl@<et
eihiairiiging profile
of labor fore©
The worklife expectancy of men continued
to level off between 1970 and 1977,
while that of women increased significantly
S h i r l e y J . S m it h
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed a new set
of working life tables based on labor force patterns ob
served in 1977. On the basis of these patterns, the Bu
reau estimates that the average man 16 years of age can
expect to spend 38.5 years in the labor force while a
typical woman of that age can expect 27.7 years of la
bor force involvement.
Patterns of lifetime labor force attachment for both
men and women are constantly changing. Comparisons
of labor force participation rates from year to year sug
gest evolving patterns of labor force entry and with
drawal, as well as significant changes in economic
activity at midlife. However, it is difficult to identify the
current “lifetime pattern of labor force involvement”
from these rates alone.
Working life tables were developed to isolate such
lifetime patterns. The results of the model are synthetic.
That is, they summarize the behavior of all age groups
in the population during a given year, rather than trace
the history of any one group through its lifetime. The
tables estimate how frequently members of a population
would enter and leave the labor force, and how long the
average person would remain economically active, if
rates of behavior remained as they were in the reference
year.
showed a weakening attachment to the labor force. The
participation rates of younger women showed the most
remarkable change, increasing by more than one per
centage point per year. The rate for those 25 to 34 in
creased by 14.5 percentage points in just 7 years. At the
same time, rates of older persons were dropping, with
that of men 60 to 64 declining by 12.1 percentage
points.
In the prime working ages, the labor force attach
ment of men slackened somewhat, while that of women
increased substantially. The net effect was a decline in
the mean age of labor force members, reinforcing the
drop related to the age structure of the population it
self. The magnitude and character of these changes have
rendered the 1970 worklife estimates obsolete.
Moreover, there is now much evidence that adults,
particularly women, move in and out of the labor force
repeatedly during their lifetimes. This movement contra
dicts a basic assumption of conventional worklife meth
odology, that workers remain in the labor force
continuously from age of entry to age of final withdraw
al. The growing conflict between model and reality ap
pears to have adversely affected estimates published for
the years 1950-70.
Recent participation trends affect methodology
Of course, these rates do not remain constant over
time. In fact, activity rates of men and women have
changed substantially since 1970, the reference year of
the Bureau’s previous working life tables. Between 1970
and 1977, the entire cross-sectional profile of participa
tion for both sexes changed. (See table 1.) Persons age
16 to 24 became increasingly active; those above age 55
Table 1. Civilian labor force participation rates by sen
and age, annual averages, 1970 and 1977
M en
16-19 ............
20-24 ............
25-34 ............
35 44 ............
45-54 ............
55-59 ............
60-64 ............
65 and over . . .
Shirley J. Smith is a demographic statistician in the Division of Labor
Force Studies, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Change
W om en
C hange
Age
1
1970
1977
1 9 7 0 -7 7
1970
1977
1 9 7 0 -7 7
56.1
83.3
96.4
96.9
94.2
89.5
75.0
26.8
61.0
85.7
95.4
95.7
91.2
83.2
62.9
20.1
4.9
2.4
-1.0
-1.2
-3.0
-6.3
-12.1
-6.7
44.0
57.7
45.0
51.1
54.4
49.0
36.1
9.7
51.4
66.5
59.5
59.6
55.8
48.0
32.9
8.1
7.4
8.8
14.5
8.5
1.4
-1.0
-3.2
-1.6
New estimates and trends in worklife expectancy
The new worklife estimates for 1977 are drawn from
a dynamic new model known as the increment-decre
ment working life table. This model is markedly differ
ent from the original (or conventional) worklife tech
nique used to produce the estimates previously pub
lished by the Bureau. The new values are not entirely
comparable with previously published figures,1 because
they reflect not only changes in the behavior of Ameri
can adults, but also several fundamental changes in
modeling procedures.2
The key feature of this model is that it rests on ob
served probabilities of movement into and out of the la
bor force— a flow variable, rather than labor force
participation rates, which are a measure of stocks. In
the new tables, persons are assumed to pass through
life, at each age facing the “probabilities of transition’’
observed for that age group in the base population dur
ing the reference year. Worklife expectancies summarize
the length of time the average adult would spend in the
labor force during his or her lifetime, if these probabili
ties did not change. Rates of labor force accession and
separation summarize the volume of labor turnover
which would occur within each age group if mobility
patterns remained constant.
Unlike previously published estimates for women, the
new tables do not spell out expectancies separately by
marital or parental status. Such tables imply a fixed sta
tus for life. Instead, the new model presents a summary
table for all women. The transition probabilities under
lying this table reflect the impact of normal life cycle
changes on labor force attachment at each age.
For purposes of comparison, 1970 estimates have
been reestimated using, the new increment-decrement
methodology. Selected revised values are included in
this report.
Tables of working life for 1977, estimated by the in
crement-decrement method, indicate that given a con
tinuation of mortality and labor force behavior observed
at that time, a boy born in 1977 was likely to spend
37.9 years in the labor force and a girl, 27.5 years. (See
table 2.) Those surviving to age 16 would have slightly
higher average worklife expectancies— 38.5 and 27.7
years, respectively. At age 50, the average man could
anticipate 11.7 more years of labor force involvement,
the average woman, 7.5 years.
Within any age group, persons currently active have a
higher worklife expectancy than those not in the labor
force. Although previous studies have hinted at this re
lationship, the new estimates for the first time spell out
the magnitude of the differential. Among teenagers it is
relatively small; most are likely to enter and leave the
labor force repeatedly before settling into adult roles.
However, at midlife the active and inactive groups are
no longer so similar. For those not in the labor force,
the probability of reentry declines with age. At age 45
the active group is expected to work about 4 years
longer than its inactive counterpart.
Historic comparisons of the worklife index are imped
ed by the fact that patterns of labor force attachment
have changed, forcing a revision in methodology. Dur
ing the first half of this century, when worklives tended
to be more continuous, the conventional model gave rel
atively unbiased estimates of their duration. However,
as work patterns became increasingly irregular after
World War II, the quality of the estimates declined.
The problem was greatest for groups having high rates
of labor turnover. For such groups, the conventional
model tended to underestimate the size of the labor
force, and to overstate the average worklife duration.
Estimates for women workers were especially tenuous,
growing increasingly biased from 1950 to 1970. Only
the 1970 values have been reestimated using the incre
ment-decrement model. Conventional estimates for 1950
' Previous BLS publications on this subject include Howard N Ful
lerton, Jr. and James J. Byrne, “Length of working life for men and
women, 1970,” Monthly Labor Review, Feburary 1976, pp. 31-35;
Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “A new type of working life table for men,”
Monthly Labor Review, July 1972, pp. 20-27; Howard N Fullerton,
Jr., “A table of expected working life for men, 1968,” Monthly Labor
Review, June 1971, pp. 49-55; Stuart H. Garfinkle, Work life expec
tancy and training needs of women, Manpower Report No. 12 (Bureau
of Labor Statistics, 1967); Stuart H. Garfinkle, "Table of working life
for men, 1960,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1963, pp. 820-23; Stuart
H. Garfinkle, The length of working life for males, 1900-60. Manpow
er Report No. 8 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1963); Stuart H.
Garfinkle, Tables of working life for women. 1950, Bulletin 1204
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1957); and Seymour L. Wolfbein and
Harold Wool, Tables of working life: the length of work life for men.
Bulletin 1001 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1950).
'They are comparable with estimates published by Robert Schoen
and Karen Woodrow in “Labor Force Status Life Tables for the
United States, 1972,” Demography, August 1980, pp. 297-322. The
technical details of the increment-decrement model are described in a
forthcoming BLS report. For other discussions of multistate working
life tables, see Jan Hoem and Monica Fong, “A Markov Chain Model
of Working Life Tables,” Working Paper 2 (Laboratory of Actuarial
Mathematics, University of Copenhagen, 1976), and Frans Willekens,
“Multistate Analysis: Tables of Working Life,” Environment and
Planning, Vol. 12, pp. 563-88.
Table 2. Worklife expectancies of the population and
active and inactive persons by age and sex, 1977
©f
[In years]
M en
W om en
Age
T o ta l
At birth............
1 6 ..................
20 ..................
25 ..................
30 ..................
35 ..................
40 ..................
45 ..................
50 ..................
5 5 ..................
60 ..................
65 ..................
70 ................
2
37.9
385
36.8
33.4
29.2
24.7
20.3
15.9
11.7
7.8
4.3
1.9
9
A c t iv e
In a c t iv e
39.6
37.3
33.7
29.3
24.9
20.4
16.2
12.2
8.5
5.2
3.4
2.6
37.9
38.1
35.9
32.0
27.2
21.7
16.9
12.0
7.2
3.6
1.9
1.1
.6
T o ta l
27.5
27.7
260
23.0
19.9
16.8
13.7
10.5
7.5
4.8
2.5
1.1
.5
A c t iv e
28.8
26.7
23.7
20.9
17.9
14.9
11.9
9.3
6.8
4.4
3.1
2.4
In a c t iv e
27.5
27.4
25.2
21.7
18.2
14.8
11.4
8.0
4.9
2.5
1.2
6
2
expectancy increased by only 2.3 years. This was ac
complished by a reallocation of time— nearly 3 years
per woman— from home to labor market activities. At
the turn of the century, women spent an average of 13
percent of their lifetimes in the labor force, compared to
nearly 36 percent in 1977.
Because of these countervailing trends, the worklife
durations of men and women have been converging. It
is estimated that in 1940, the average expectation of
working life for young women was just 30 percent of
that for men. By 1970, it was 57 percent and by 1977,
it represented 71 percent that for men. While these fig
ures do not take account of differences in hours worked,
an important distinction, they do illustrate how funda
mentally the roles of men and women have changed.
through 1970 seriously overstate work durations for
women in the labor force during that period. When
these data are excluded, however, the results of previous
models give a credible picture of the evolution of labor
force attachments in this century. (See table 3.)
In 1900, the life and worklife expectancies of men
were very similar. At age 20, the average man could ex
pect to spend only 4.4 years outside of the labor force.
During the next 77 years, men’s life span increased by
23 years, with the bulk of the increase— about 17 years
— going into nonlabor force activities. The growth in
worklife expectancy was less than 6 years. Between
1970 and 1977, virtually the entire increase in life ex
pectancy (2.2 years) went to nonlabor force activities.
At the turn of the century, the average man spent 69
percent of his lifetime in the labor force, but by 1977,
this figure had dropped to about 55 percent.
In contrast, the formal worklife of women has in
creased dramatically during this century. In 1900, wom
en averaged little more than 6 years of formal labor
force involvement. Over the next 77 years, their average
life span increased by almost 29 years, of which 21 were
allocated to labor market activities. The shift has been
especially pronounced in recent years. Between 1970
and 1977, worklife durations rose by 5 years, while life
Table 3.
M easures off labor force mobility
A second function of the working life table is to
quantify movements into and out of the labor force.
The conventional model derived aggregate estimates of
these flows from age-to-age comparisons of labor force
participation rates. The results, taken to describe net
flows, gave little insight into the process of labor turn
over. The new model rests on observed probabilities of
labor force entry and exit at each age. It estimates both
Changes in life and worklife expectancies, by sex, 1900-77
R a t io o f
W o r k lif e e x p e c t a n c y
L ife e x p e c t a n c y
I n a c t iv e y e a r s
P e rc e n t o f
f e m a le t o
( t o t a l p o p u la t io n )
lif e s p a n a c t iv e
m a le w o r k lif e
e x p e c t a n c ie s
W o r k lif e m o d e l,
sex, and ye a r
A ll p e r s o n s
At
At age
b ir th
20
W o rk e rs
At
A t age
At age
b ir th
20
20
32.1
38.1
41.5
41.1
40.1
37.8
39.7
41.4
40.9
39.4
39.4
41.3
43.1
42.9
41.5
F ro m
F ro m
F ro m
F ro m
At age
b ir th
a g e 20
b ir t h
a g e 20
20
14.2
23.1
24.0
25.7
27.0
4.4
7.1
7.5
8.7
10.2
69.3
62.3
63.4
61.5
59.8
89.6
84.8
84.7
825
79.4
(’ )
( ')
(’ )
(’ )
(’ )
fvlen
Conventional model:
1900 ...............................................................
1940 ...............................................................
1950 ...............................................................
1960 ...............................................................
1970 ...............................................................
46.3
61.2
65.5
66.8
67.1
42.2
48.6
48.9
49.6
49.6
Increment-decrement model:
1970 ...............................................................
1977 ...............................................................
67.1
69.3
49.6
51.3
37.8
379
37.3
36.8
38.0
37.3
29.4
31.5
12.3
14.5
56.3
54.7
75.2
71.7
(’ >
<’ )
Change:
1900-772 .........................................................
1970-773 .......................................................
23.0
2.2
9.1
1.7
5.7
0.1
-1.0
-0.5
-2.1
-0.7
17.3
2.1
10.1
2.2
-14.8
-1.7
-17.9
-3.5
(’ )
(’ )
Conventional model:
1900 ...............................................................
1940 ...............................................................
1950 ...............................................................
1960 ...............................................................
1970 ...............................................................
48.3
65.7
71.0
73.1
74.8
43.8
50.4
53.7
55.7
56.7
6.3
12.1
15.1
20.1
22.9
(4)
11.9
14.5
18.6
22.0
n
(4)
(4)
37.3
40.6
42.0
53.6
55.9
53.0
51.9
(4)
38.5
39.2
37.1
34.7
13.0
18.4
21.3
27.5
30.6
13.7
23.6
27.0
33.4
38.8
( 4)
30.0
35.0
45.0
55.8
Increment-decrement model:
1970 ...............................................................
1977 ...............................................................
74.8
77.1
56.7
58.6
22.3
27.5
21.3
26.0
22.1
26.7
52.4
49.7
35.4
32.6
29.8
35.7
37.6
44.4
57.1
70.7
Change:
1900-772 .........................................................
1970-773 .......................................................
28.8
2.3
14.8
1.9
21.1
5.0
(3)
4.7
(3)
4.6
7.7
-2.7
(3)
-2.8
22.5
5.6
30.7
6.8
(4)
13.6
.
W om en
'Not applicable.
2Based on conventional model estimates for 1900 and increment-decrement model estimates for 1977.
3Based on the increment-decrement model.
“Data not available.
3
age, but the typical woman would engage in several
shorter periods of activity, averaging just 8.6 years per
entry.
Working life tables show two forms of labor force
withdrawal: voluntary separation and death. Given the
work and mortality patterns of 1977, the average young
man could expect to leave the labor market voluntarily
2.7 times. About 27 percent of men would die before
reaching retirement. The average young woman was
likely to leave the labor force voluntarily 4.4 times, and
fewer than 1 in 10 were likely to die before retiring.
Because the age distribution of labor force withdraw
als is bimodal, with heavy outflows at both ends of the
age spectrum, the mean age of all exits (38.7 years for
men and 33.9 years for women) tells us little about final
retirement. It is very difficult to identify retirement
norms, because the retiree can and often does reenter
the labor force. However, the 1977 tables indicate that
among persons leaving the labor market at or beyond
the age of 50, the life table median age of exit was 63.4
years for men, and 60.6 years for women. It appears
that the age at retirement has dropped for both sexes
since 1970. This may help to explain the concurrent
drop in proportions likely to die as members of the la
bor force.
At the aggregate level, the new tables show a much
greater volume of movement in and out of the labor
force than has been quantified in the past. Although
men and women in their teens have roughly comparable
rates of labor force entry and withdrawal, the retention
of young men exceeds that of women in this age group.
(See table 5.) The pace of labor force entries for both
sexes slows by age 20. However, as men begin to settle
into their role as workers— as evidenced by a drop in
their separation rate— female labor force exits actually
rise. By age 25, the share of all men in the labor force
substantially exceeds that of all women. Because a larg
er proportion of the female population remains outside
the job market but may enter at any time, the accession
rates of women are greater than those of men through
out midlife. Net retirements peak between the ages of
Table 4. Selected indexes of working life by sex, 1970
and 1977
M en
W om en
W o r k lif e m e a s u r e
1970
1977
1970
Median age at first labor force
entry ............................................
16.5
16.4
16.8
16.6
Mean age of all first and repeat
labor force entrants........................
26.6
26.9
29.2
28.7
Worklife expectancy (in years):
A; b irth......................................
At age 2 5 ..................................
37.8
34.4
37.9
33.4
22.3
19.0
27.5
23.0
Number of labor force entries per:
Person born ..............................
Person age 25 ..........................
2.9
1.2
3.0
1.1
4.6
2.8
Expected duration in labor force
per entry remaining (in years):
At b irth ......................................
A: age 2 5 ..................................
13.0
29.4
12.6
29.1
4.8
6.8
6.1
8.6
Number of voluntary exits
from labor force per:
Person born ..............................
Person age 25 ..........................
2.6
1.9
2.7
2.0
4.5
3.3
4.4
3.3
Percent of workers expected to
die while in the labor force..............
36.3
27.0
10.8
9.5
Mean age of all persons leaving
the labor force:
Total first and repeat exits ..........
Voluntary withdrawals....................
Deaths of workers......................
38.7
36.1
57.3
38.7
37.0
55.6
33.5
32.9
58.1
33.9
33.4
56.3
Median age of persons leaving
labor force at age 50 and
above ...........................................
65.0
63.4
61.4
60.6
1977
4.5
2.7
net and gross rates of mobility, and provides informa
tion on the frequency and timing of these movements in
the average person’s life.
The new estimates indicate that most people establish
their first contact with the labor force as teenagers. In
the 1977 life table population, half of all young men
had become members of the labor force by age 16.4.
(See table 4.) The median age of first entry for women
was marginally higher, 16.6 years. Because entries and
reentries occur at all ages, the mean age of male labor
force entrants was 26.9 years, and that of female en
trants was even higher, 28.7 years.
Given a continuation of the work life patterns ob
served in 1977, it is estimated that the average man
would enter the labor force 3 times in his lifetime. The
average woman would do so 4.5 times. Men are likely
to complete the phase of intermittent work more quick
ly than women. At age 25, they would anticipate an av
erage of just 1.1 more labor force entries, while women
could look forward to 2.7 additional entries.
According to the 1977 tables, men would average
12.6 years of labor force involvement for every entry
during their lifetime. The average duration per entry for
women was expected to be less than half this figure, or
6.1 years. Because most men were firmly attached to the
job market by age 25, they would spend an average of
29.1 years in the labor force for every entry beyond that
Table 5. Population-based rates of labor force accession
and separation by age and sex, 1977
[Per 1,000 persons in the stationary population)
A c c e s s io n s
S e p a r a t io n s
N e t f lo w
Age
M en
16-19
10-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
4
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
211.6
136.3
54.4
23.8
14.9
15.5
16.4
17.1
191
30.8
44.5
35.7
W om en
207.2
158.3
109 6
88.4
75.2
66.3
57.9
46.8
37.4
32.0
27.8
16.1
M en
124.3
93.9
38.6
23.0
17.6
21.6
282
37.1
59.3
113.1
929
56.3
W om en
127.9
142.0
116.0
84.1
735
69.0
68.1
63.7
66.2
77.8
52.2
27.1
M en
873
42.5
15.8
0.8
2.7
-6.1
11.8
20.0
- 40.2
82.3
48.4
20.6
W om en
79.3
16.2
-6.5
4.3
1.7
-2.7
- 10.2
-16.9
28.8
-45.8
244
11.1
60 and 64. Thereafter, men are more likely than women
to reenter the labor force. The rise in male entry rates
at age 60 highlights the fact that retirement is often a
temporary state.
The separation rates shown in table 5 are expressed
as a ratio of withdrawals to population. A more com
mon form is the ratio of withdrawals to labor force
members. (See table 6.) Changing the denominator in
this way has little effect on the rates of separation for
prime working-age men, because most members of this
population are also in the labor force. However, because
of the disparity between population and labor force
counts for other groups, the change to a labor force
base inflates the rates of these other groups. This gives
a better illustration of their relative propensities to leave
the job market. Among persons working in the prime
ages, women are as much as five times more likely than
men to withdraw from economic activity. Only at age
65 and above do working men show a greater propensi
ty to retire.
Table 7. Comparison of labor force mobility rates by age
and sex, 1970 and 1977
[Life table rates per 1,000]
S ex and age
Trends in mobility rates
The pace of net labor force entries for young people
increased markedly between 1970 and 1977. (See table
7.) Although the gross accession rates of teenagers rose
slightly during this period, they had less bearing on the
net influx than did the drop in labor force withdrawals.
As young people showed increasing reluctance to leave
the job market, the process of labor force expansion
with age became more efficient. At the same time, the
pace of net labor force withdrawals among persons age
45 and older accelerated. The separation rates of men
45 to 64 increased sufficiently to outweigh (and perhaps
to have caused) slight increases in labor force entries.
The increased frequency of retirement in these age
groups contributed to a drop in participation rates.
The situation for women was more complex. They
too showed a rise in net labor force separations between
the ages of 45 and 64. However, the increased net out
flow of those 45 to 54 was evidence of a tightening,
rather than a loosening of female labor force attach
ments. Below the age of 55, working women showed a
16-19.............................................................
20-24 .............................................................
25-29 .............................................................
30-34 .............................................................
35-39 .............................................................
40-44 .............................................................
45-49 .............................................................
50-54 .............................................................
55-59 .............................................................
60-64 .............................................................
65-69 .............................................................
70-74 .............................................................
254.7
125.0
42.7
24.3
18.5
22.9
30.5
42.1
74.6
209.7
376.2
441.9
la b o r f o r c e
N e t f l o w s in
p o p u la t io n
1970
1977
1970
1977
1970
1977
Men:
16-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
191.9
145.7
72.0
27.6
14.8
13.5
14.6
14.5
18.8
32.2
38.2
36.7
211.6
136.3
54.4
23.8
14.9
15.5
16.4
17.1
19.1
30.8
44.5
35.7
299.0
160.6
47.1
20.5
20.6
24.3
27.6
35.3
58.7
137.5
264.2
343.1
254.7
125.0
42.7
24.3
18.5
22.9
30.5
42.1
74.6
209.7
376.2
441.9
66.9
41.7
32.4
8.0
-5.1
-9.5
-11.0
—17.3
-31.1
-64.9
-75.1
-38.1
87.3
42.5
15.8
0.8
-2.7
-6.1
-11.8
-20.0
-40.2
-82.3
-48.4
-20.6
Women:
16-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
204.1
164.6
102.2
90.7
83.7
72.3
60.3
49.7
43.3
38.9
29.4
16.0
207.2
158.3
109.6
88.4
75.2
66.3
57.9
46.8
37.4
32.0
27.8
16.1
455.7
321.0
231.2
206.3
162.6
132.7
121.9
115.4
131.5
200.8
308.9
402.8
290.5
226.3
182.9
134.7
112.8
105.3
107.7
110.8
136.2
251.9
369.7
388.7
54.3
14.5
-7.6
-1.1
7.2
4.7
-2.9
-8.7
-17.4
-33.0
-33.4
-19.9
79.3
16.2
-6.5
4.3
1.7
-2.7
-10.2
-16.9
-28.8
-45.8
-24.4
-11.1
T h e w o r k l if e e x p e c t a n c i e s of men and women in
the United States have been converging since the end of
World War II. This trend accelerated between 1970 and
1977, primarily because of the strengthening of female
labor force attachments. Although the average worklife
duration of men remained nearly constant, that for
women increased by about 12 years. There remained
significant differences in time allocation by sex; women
were far more likely than men to withdraw from and
reenter the labor force at midlife. Nevertheless, by 1977,
women spent an average of 70 percent as many years in
the labor force as did men.
The new worklife model quantifies a substantial flow
of persons into and out of the labor force for both sexes
at every age. The pace of entries for teenagers increased
between 1970 and 1977. For men 20 to 34, and for
[Per 1,000 workers in the stationary labor force]
M en
S e p a r a t io n s in
p o p u la t io n
drop in propensity to leave the job market. The slow
down of youthful separations limited the size of the la
bor reserve from which to draw older entrants. Hence,
entries at midlife also declined. The decrease in labor
turnover led to higher participation rates for women 45
to 54. Nonetheless, the share of women attached to the
labor force, and at risk of leaving, had increased. Be
tween 1970 and 1977, the ratio of withdrawals to popu
lation increased, and with it net labor force losses for
women in this age range. Only among women over 55 is
there evidence that intentions to retire were becoming
stronger. Within this group, an increase in separation
rates was accompanied by a drop in rates of labor force
reentry.
Table 6. Labor force based rates of separation by age
and sex, 1977
Age
A c c e s s i o n s in
W om en
290.5
226.3
182.9
134.7
112.8
105.3
107.7
110.8
136.2
251.9
369.7
388.7
5
most women above age 20, entries actually slowed.
However, a greater drop in withdrawals brought about
the net expansion of the labor force seen as increased
participation rates for many age groups during this
period.
A detailed description of the new worklife meth
odology and a comparison with earlier procedures and
results are available in Tables o f Working Life: The
Increment-Decrement Model, Bulletin 2135 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1982). Order from Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash
ington, D.C. 20402.
6
Table A-1. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years remaining at each age by current labor force
status: Men, 1977
(In years)
Current labor force status
Expectation
of
life
Expectation
of
active life
Expectation
of
inactive life
a
e
X
e
Expectation
of
active life
a
j
e
X
Not in the labor force
In the labor force
Total population
Age
a
e
X
Expectation
of
inactive life
a
i
e
X
Expectation
of
active life
i
a
i
i
e
e
X
Expectation
of
inactive life
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
17
18
19
55.0
54.0
53.1
52.2
38.5
38.2
37,8
37.3
16.4
15.8
15.3
14.9
39.6
39.2
38.5
37.9
15.4
14.9
14.6
14.3
38.1
37.5
37.1
36.6
16.8
16.5
16.0
15.6
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
51.3
50.4
49.5
48.6
47.7
46.8
45.9
45.0
44.1
43.1
36.8
36.2
35.6
34.9
34.2
33.4
32.6
31.8
30.9
30.1
14.5
14.2
13.9
13.7
13.5
13.4
13.3
13.2
13.1
13.1
37.3
36.7
36.0
35.2
34.5
33.7
32.8
32.0
31.1
30.2
14.0
13.7
13.5
13.3
13.2
13.1
13.1
13.0
13.0
12.9
35.9
35.2
34.4
33.7
32.9
32.0
31.1
30.2
29.3
28.2
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.9
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.9
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
42.2
41.3
40.4
39.4
38.5
37.6
36.7
35.8
34.9
34.0
29.2
28.3
27.4
26.5
25.6
24.7
23.8
22.9
22.0
21.2
13.0
13.0
13.0
12.9
12.9
12.9
12.9
12.8
12.8
12.8
29.3
28.4
27.5
26.7
25.8
24.9
24.0
23.1
22.2
21.3
12.9
12.9
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
27.2
26.1
25.0
23.9
22.8
21.7
20.7
19.7
18.8
17.8
15.0
15.2
15.4
15.5
15.7
15.9
16.0
16.1
16.1
16.2
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
33.1
32.2
31.3
30.4
29.5
28.7
27.8
27.0
26.1
25.3
20.3
19.4
18.5
17.6
16.8
15.9
15.0
14.2
13.3
12.5
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
20.4
19.6
18.7
17.8
17.0
16.2
15.3
14.5
13.7
12.9
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.4
12.4
16.9
16.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
11.9
10.9
9.9
8.9
8.0
16.2
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.6
16.7
16.9
17.1
17.2
17.3
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
24.5
23.7
22.9
22.1
21.4
20.6
19.9
19.1
18.4
17.7
11.7
10.9
10.1
9.3
8.5
7.8
7.0
6.3
5.6
4.9
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.2
11.4
10.7
9.9
9.2
8.5
7.8
7.1
6.4
5.8
12.3
12.3
12.2
12.2
12.2
12.1
12.1
12.0
12.0
11.9
7.2
6.3
5.5
4.8
4.2
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.1
17.3
17.4
17.4
17.4
17.2
17.0
16.7
16.4
16.0
15.6
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
17.0
16.4
15.7
15.1
14.5
13.9
13.3
12.8
12.2
11.6
4.3
3.7
3.1
2.7
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
12.8
12.7
12.6
12.5
12.3
12.0
11.7
11.3
11.0
10.6
5.2
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.7
11.8
11.6
11.4
11.2
10.9
10.5
10.1
9.7
9.3
8.9
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
15.2
14.7
14.2
13.8
13.3
12.8
12.3
11.9
11.4
10.9
70
71
72
73
74
75
11.1
10.6
10.1
9.6
9.2
8.7
.9
.8
.7
.6
.6
.5
10.2
9.8
9.4
9.0
8.6
8.2
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.2
8.5
8.1
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.5
.6
.6
.5
.5
.4
.4
10.5
10.0
9.6
9.2
8.7
8.3
(D
16
7
Table A-2. Age-specific transition probabilities and rates of transfer between states: Men, 1977
R ates o f tra n sfe r betw een states
(per 1,000 in original status)
Probability o f transition betw een specified states
Age
Living
to
dead
d
P
X
Inactive
to
inactive
i
i
P
X
Inactive
to
active
i
Active
to
inactive
a
a
P
i
P
X
X
Active
to
active
a
Living
to
dead
d
a
P
X
Inactive
to
active
i
a
m
m
X
Active
to
inactive
a
i
m
'
X
X
(8)
(9)
X
(D
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
16
17
18
19
0.00130
.00152
.00168
.00179
0.70257
.73158
.68082
.63115
0.29613
.26690
.31750
.36706
0.26333
.16377
.17157
.17734
0.73537
.83471
.82675
.82087
1.30
1.52
1.68
1.79
411.77
340.73
421.10
505.42
366.17
209.08
227.55
244.18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
.00190
.00200
.00207
.00208
.00205
.00201
.00197
.00193
.00190
.00188
.60351
.59326
.59247
.58035
.56979
.56253
.56219
.56209
.56534
.58105
.39459
.40474
.40546
.41757
.42816
.43546
.43584
.43598
.43276
.41707
.13862
.11331
.09116
.07084
.05506
.04323
.03490
.02942
.02571
.02382
.85948
.88469
.90677
.92708
.94289
.95476
.96313
.96865
.97239
.97430
1.90
2.00
2.07
2.08
2.05
2.01
1.97
1.93
1.90
1.88
539.24
547.50
540.69
553.83
565.92
573.81
571.30
569.47
562.70
536.15
189.43
153.27
121.57
93.96
72.77
56.97
45.75
38.43
33.43
30.62
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
.00186
.00186
.00189
.00197
.00208
.00222
.00239
.00257
.00277
.00300
.59900
.61817
.65287
.67166
.68396
.70656
.73058
.75729
.75239
.75525
.39914
.37997
.34524
.32637
.31396
.29122
.26703
.24014
.24484
.24175
.02088
.01914
.01785
.01702
.01583
.01452
.01397
.01352
.01286
.01367
.97726
.97900
.98026
.98101
.98209
.98326
.98364
.98391
.98437
.98333
1.86
1.86
1.89
1.97
2.08
2.22
2.39
2.57
2.77
3.00
506.32
475.70
422.70
394.88
376.82
344.61
311.49
275.79
281.89
278.04
26.49
23.97
21.85
20.59
18.99
17.18
16.30
15.53
14.81
15.72
40
41
42
43
44
•-$5
46
47
48
49
.00325
.00355
.00388
.00425
.00467
.00512
.00562
.00618
.00681
.00751
.75589
.75147
.75617
.76275
.76568
.77441
.78118
.80524
.81482
.82414
.24086
.24498
.23995
.23300
.22965
.22047
.21320
.18858
.17837
.16835
.01518
.01606
.01603
.01698
.01821
.01879
.01930
.02150
.02383
.02452
.98157
.98039
.98009
.97877
.97712
.97609
.97508
.97232
.96936
.96797
3.26
3.56
3.89
4.26
4.68
5.13
5.64
6.20
6.83
7.54
277.19
282.83
276.31
267.50
263.46
251.81
242.70
212.09
199.87
187.80
17.46
18.54
18.46
19.49
20.88
21.46
21.97
24.18
26.70
27.36
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
.00828
.00910
.00995
.01081
.01171
.01263
.01366
.01491
.01647
.01826
.83035
.83867
.85595
.87234
.88380
.88826
.89527
.89801
.90035
.91071
.16137
.15223
.13410
.11685
.10449
.09911
.09107
.08708
.08318
.07103
.02590
.02764
.02856
.03049
.03378
.03807
.04152
.04936
.06484
.08345
.96582
.96326
.96149
.95870
.95451
.94930
.94482
.93573
.91869
.89829
8.31
9.14
10.00
10.87
11.78
12.71
13.75
15.02
16.61
18.43
179.60
168.88
147.50
127.58
113.62
107.82
98.93
94.92
91.38
78.46
28.82
30.66
31.41
33.28
36.73
41.42
45.10
53.80
71.24
92.18
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
.02026
.02231
.02429
.02611
.02783
.02958
.03154
.03388
.03675
.04013
.91865
.91958
.91755
.91666
.91727
.91484
.91715
.91926
.91874
.91945
.06109
.05811
.05816
.05723
.05490
.05558
.05131
.04686
.04451
.04042
.11228
.14231
.16971
.19580
.22547
.25680
.27466
.28195
.29215
.29252
.86746
.83538
.80600
.77809
.74670
.71362
.69380
.68417
.67110
.66735
20.47
22.56
24.59
26.46
28.22
30.02
32.05
34.46
37.44
40.95
68.33
66.12
67.36
67.39
65.82
68.05
63.48
58.23
55.75
50.71
125.59
161.95
196.58
230.57
270.31
314.42
339.80
350.35
365.94
366.96
70
71
72
73
74
75
.04377
.04761
.05184
.05649
.06156
.06703
.91996
.91783
.91535
.91348
.91254
.89659
.03627
.03456
.03281
.03003
.02590
.03622
.29690
.30124
.30748
.31581
.31562
.32675
.65933
.65115
.64068
.62770
.62282
.60606
44.75
48.77
53.22
58.13
63.51
69.35
45.69
43.80
41.90
38.68
33.47
47.75
374.03
381.78
392.65
406.84
407.85
430.75
8
Table A-3. Stationary population and labor force, status transfers, and transfers remaining at each age: Men, 1977
Expected number of
transfers remaining
per person aged x
Number of transfers occurring between
specified states during age interval
x to x + 1
Stationary population surviving
to exact age x by
labor force status at that age
Separations
Accessions
Age
Total
Inactive
a
t
I
I
Inactive
to
active
i
a
i
I
Active
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
x
Inactive
to
dead
Active
to
inactive
Active
to
dead
i d
t
a i
t
a d
t
X
X
Accessions
i
a
Voluntary
separations
a
i
E
X
E
(8)
(9)
X
X
X
a )
(5)
(6)
(7)
(10)
16
17
18
19
97,598
97,471
97,323
97,159
70,539
56,684
48,149
41,217
27,059
40,787
49,174
55,942
26,194
17,860
18,816
19,497
83
80
75
69
12,422
9,405
11,960
14,284
44
68
88
105
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.3
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
96,985
96,801
96,607
96,407
96,207
96,010
95,817
95,628
95,444
95,263
35,935
30,150
25,439
21,560
17,815
14,466
11,663
9,494
7,871
6,701
61,050
66,651
71,168
74,847
78,392
81,544
84,154
86,134
87,573
88,562
17,817
15,217
12,706
10,903
9,134
7,497
6,044
4,945
4,100
3,406
63
56
49
41
33
26
21
17
14
12
12,095
10,562
8,875
7,199
5,819
4,720
3,896
3,338
2,944
2,720
121
138
151
160
164
167
168
168
167
167
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
95,084
94,907
94,730
94,551
94,365
94,168
93,958
93,734
93,493
93,034
6,003
5,456
5,085
4,920
4,829
4,720
4,634
4,634
4,714
4,679
89,081
89,451
89,645
89,631
89,536
89,448
89,324
89,100
88,779
88,355
2,901
2,507
2,115
1,925
1,799
1,612
1,443
1,289
1,325
1,312
11
10
9
10
10
10
11
12
13
14
2,364
2,146
1,959
1,844
1,700
1,536
1,454
1,381
1,313
1,390
166
167
170
177
186
199
213
229
246
266
.9
.9
.8
.8
.8
.8
.8
.7
.7
.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
92,955
92,653
92,324
91,966
91,575
91,147
90,680
90,170
89,613
89,002
4,752
4,930
5,114
5,265
5,488
5,769
6,072
6,376
6,936
7,622
88,203
87,723
87,210
86,701
86,087
85,378
84,608
83,794
82,677
81,380
1,342
1,420
1,434
1,438
1,483
1,491
1,510
1,412
1,455
1,493
16
18
20
23
26
30
35
41
50
60
1,536
1,622
1,605
1,684
1,790
1,824
1,850
2,012
2,190
2,208
286
311
338
368
401
436
474
516
560
608
.7
.7
.7
.7
.7
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
88,334
87,603
86,805
85,941
85,012
84,016
82,954
81,821
80,601
79,274
8,277
8,946
9,677
10,486
11,447
12,602
13,913
15,322
17,042
19,465
80,057
78,657
77,128
75,455
73,565
71,414
69,041
66,499
63,559
59,809
1,547
1,573
1,487
1,399
1,366
1,429
1,446
1,535
1,667
1,654
72
85
101
119
142
168
201
243
303
389
2,287
2,389
2,397
2,480
2,663
2,908
3,056
3,497
4,393
5,295
660
712
763
810
854
892
932
977
1,024
1,058
.6
.6
.6
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
77,826
76,250
74,549
72,738
70,839
68,867
66,830
64,722
62,530
60,232
22,718
27,057
31,882
36,494
40,550
44,024
46,655
48,331
49,050
49,003
55,108
49,193
42,667
36,244
30,289
24,843
20,175
16,391
13,480
11,229
1,700
1,948
2,302
2,595
2,783
3,083
3,013
2,834
2,732
2,466
509
665
840
1,019
1,193
1,361
1,521
1,677
1,834
1,992
6,548
7,437
7,754
7,669
7,450
7,073
6,209
5,230
4,518
3,796
1,067
1,036
970
880
778
675
586
514
462
424
.5
.5
.4
.4
.4
.4
.3
.3
.3
.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.7
.6
.5
.4
.4
70
71
72
73
74
75
57,815
55,284
52,652
49,923
47,103
44,203
48,340
47,284
45,809
44,035
42,085
39,988
9,475
8,000
6,843
5,888
5,018
4,215
2,181
2,035
1,879
1,662
1,371
1,841
2,136
2,266
2,386
2,498
2,601
2,673
3,263
2,828
2,495
2,214
1,879
1,767
390
361
338
316
293
284
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.0
.3
.3
.2
.2
.2
.1
9
Table A-4. Person years of life lived by the stationary population at and beyond exact age x: Wien, 1977
Person years lived in each status
beyond e xact age x
Person years lived in each status
during age x
Age
Total
Inactive
L
L
Active
Total
Inactive
T
T
a
i
L
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
A ctive
a
i
X
T
X
X
X
(1)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1,604,555
1,540,942
1,488,525
1,443,841
375,931
372,539
368,041
362,785
16
17
18
19
97,536
97,398
97,242
97,073
63,613
52,417
44,684
38,576
33,923
44,981
52,558
58,497
5,363,872
5,266,336
5,168,938
5,071,696
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
96,892
96,704
96,506
96,307
96,108
95,913
95,723
95,536
95,353
95,173
33,042
27,794
23,499
19,687
16,140
13,065
10,579
8,683
7,286
6,352
63,850
68,910
73,007
76,620
79,968
82,848
85,144
86,853
88,067
88,821
4,974,623
4,877,731
4,781,027
4,684,521
4,588,214
4,492,106
4,396,193
4,300,470
4,204,934
4,109,581
1,405,265
1,372,223
1,344,429
1,320,930
1,301,243
1,285,103
1,272,038
1,261,459
1,252,777
1,245,491
356,935
350,550
343,659
336,359
328,697
320,700
312,415
303,901
295,215
286,409
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
95,002
94,824
94,647
94,464
94,272
94,065
93,849
93,616
93,366
93,097
5,730
5,271
5,003
4,875
4,775
4,677
4,634
4,674
4,701
4,720
89,272
89,553
89,644
89,589
89,497
89,388
89,215
88,942
88,665
88,377
4,014,408
3,919,406
3,824,582
3,729,935
3,635,471
3,541,199
3,447,134
3,353,285
3,259,669
3,166,303
1,239,138
1,233,408
1,228,138
1,223,135
1,218,260
1,213,485
1,208,808
1,204,174
1,199,500
1,194,799
277,527
268,599
259,644
250,680
241,721
232,771
223,832
214,911
206,016
197,150
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
92,801
92,486
92,142
91,768
91,358
90,904
90,415
89,882
89,298
88,658
4,841
5,022
5,189
5,376
5,628
5,920
6,224
6,655
7,278
7,949
87,960
87,464
86,953
86,392
85,730
84,984
84,191
83,227
82,020
80,709
3,073,206
2,980,405
2,887,919
2,795,777
2,704,009
2,612,651
2,521,747
2,431,332
2,341,450
2,252,152
1,190,078
1,185,238
1,180,216
1,175,027
1,169,651
1,164,023
1,158,103
1,151,879
1,145,224
1,137,946
188,312
179,516
170,770
162,075
153,435
144,862
136,364
127,945
119,622
111,420
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
87,976
87,212
86,380
85,484
84,522
83,459
82,361
81,185
79,911
78,523
8,612
9,312
10,082
10,968
12,026
13,253
14,613
16,177
18,247
21,084
79,364
77,900
76,298
74,516
72,496
70,206
67,748
65,008
61,664
57,439
2,163,494
2,075,518
1,988,306
1,901,926
1,816,442
1,731,920
1,648,461
1,566,100
1,484,915
1,405,004
1,129,997
1,121,385
1,112,072
1,101,990
1,091,023
1,078,997
1,065,744
1,051,131
1,034,954
1,016,707
103,349
95,413
87,623
79,993
72,541
65,292
58,271
51,496
44,996
38,829
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
77,024
75,386
73,625
71,775
69,839
67,811
65,740
63,589
61,344
58,986
24,883
29,465
34,180
38,515
42,278
45,314
47,467
48,662
48,997
48,640
52,141
45,921
39,445
33,260
27,561
22,497
18,273
14,927
12,347
10,346
1,326,481
1,249,457
1,174,071
1,100,446
1,028,671
958,832
891,021
825,281
761,692
700,348
995,623
970,740
941,275
907,096
868,581
826,303
780,988
733,521
684,859
635,862
33,085
27,871
23,279
19,335
16,009
13,252
11,003
9,176
7,683
6,448
70
71
72
73
74
75
56,454
53,873
51,192
48,417
45,557
42,644
47,731
46,464
44,838
42,975
40,950
38,542
8,723
7,409
6,354
5,442
4,607
4,102
641,362
584,908
531,035
479,843
431,426
385,869
587,222
539,491
493,026
448,188
405,213
364,262
5,414
4,541
3,800
3,165
2,621
2,160
10
Table A-5. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years remaining at each age by current labor force
status: Women, 1977
(In years)
Current labor force status
Expectation
of
life
Expectation
of
active life
Expectation
of
inactive life
i
a
e
e
X
Expectation
of
active life
a
a
e
e
X
N ot in the labor force
In the labor force
Total population
Age
a
i
Expectation
of
active life
i
a
X
E xpectation
of
inactive life
i
i
e
e
e
X
X
Expectation
of
inactive life
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
!7)
(8)
16
17
18
19
62.5
61.5
60.5
59.6
27.7
27.4
27.0
26.6
34.7
34.1
33.5
33.0
28.8
28.5
27.8
27.2
33.7
33.0
32.7
32.3
27.4
26.8
26.3
25.8
35.1
34.7
34.2
33.7
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
58.6
57.6
56.7
55.7
54.7
53.8
52.8
51.9
50.9
49.9
26.0
25.5
24.9
24.2
23.6
23.0
22.3
21.7
21.1
20.5
32.6
32.2
31.8
31.5
31.1
30.8
30.5
30.1
29.8
29.5
26.7
26.1
25.5
24.9
24.3
23.7
23.1
22.6
22.0
21.5
31.9
31.6
31.2
30.9
30.5
30.1
29.7
29.3
28.9
28.5
25.2
24.5
23.8
23.1
22.4
21.7
20.9
20.2
19.5
18.9
33.4
33.1
32.9
32.6
32.4
32.1
31.9
31.6
31.4
31.1
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
49.0
48.0
47.0
46.1
45.1
44.2
43.2
42.3
41.3
40.4
19.9
19.3
18.7
18.1
17.5
16.8
16.2
15.6
14.9
14.3
29.1
28.7
28.4
28.0
27.7
27.3
27.0
26.7
26.4
26.1
20.9
20.3
19.8
19.2
18.6
17.9
17.3
16.7
16.1
15.5
28.1
27.7
27.3
26.9
26.6
26.2
25.9
25.6
25.2
24.9
18.2
17.5
16.9
16.2
15.5
14.8
14.2
13.5
12.8
12.1
30.8
30.5
30.2
29.9
29.6
29.3
29.1
28.8
28.5
28.3
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
39.5
38.5
37.6
36.7
35.8
34.9
34.0
33.1
32.2
31.3
13.7
13.0
12.4
11.8
11.2
10.5
9.9
9.3
8.7
8.1
25.8
25.5
25.2
24.9
24.6
24.3
24.0
23.8
23.5
23.2
14.9
14.3
13.7
13.1
12.5
11.9
11.3
10.8
10.3
9.7
24.6
24.3
23.9
23.6
23.3
23.0
22.6
22.3
21.9
21.6
11.4
10.7
10.0
9.3
8.7
8.0
7.3
6.7
6.1
5.4
28.0
27.8
27.6
27.3
27.1
26.9
26.6
26.4
26.1
25.9
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
30.4
29.6
28.7
27.9
27.0
26.2
25.3
24.5
23.7
22.9
7.5
7.0
6.4
5.9
5.3
4.8
4.3
3.8
3.4
2.9
22.9
22.6
22.3
22.0
21.7
21.4
21.0
20.7
20.3
20.0
9.2
8.8
8.3
7.8
7.3
, 6.8
6.3
5.8
5.3
4.8
21.2
20.8
20.4
20.1
19.7
19.4
19.1
18.8
18.4
18.1
4.9
4.3
3.8
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.6
1.4
25.6
25.2
24.9
24.5
24.1
23.7
23.2
22.6
22.1
21.5
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
22.1
21.3
20.6
19.8
19.1
18.3
17.6
16.9
16.1
15.4
2.5
2.2
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.1
.9
.8
.6
.5
19.6
19.2
18.8
18.3
17.8
17.3
16.7
16.1
15.5
14.9
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
17.7
17.3
16.9
16.4
15.9
15.3
14.7
14.1
13.5
12.9
1.2
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.4
.3
20.9
20.3
19.7
19.0
18.4
17.8
17.1
16.4
15.8
15.1
70
71
72
73
74
75
14.7
14.1
13.4
12.8
12.1
11.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.2
.1
14.3
13.7
13.1
12.5
12.0
11.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.5
.9
12.3
11.8
11.2
10.8
10.6
10.7
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
14.5
13.9
13.2
12.6
12.0
11.4
(1)
11
probabilities and rates o f transfe r between states: Women, 1977
R ates o f transfer betw een states
(per 1,000 in original status)
Probability of transition between specified states
Living
to
dead
.
d
P
X
(2)
Inactive
to
inactive
i
i
p
X
(3)
Inactive
to
active
i
Active
to
inactive
a
p
a
i
p
X
(4)
X
(5)
Active
to
active
a
Living
to
dead
a
p
d
m
X
(6)
Inactive
to
active
i
a
m
X
(7)
A ctive
to
inactive
a
i
m
X
X
(8)
0)
0.00053
.00059
.00062
.00063
0.73236
.75581
.71538
.67869
0.26711
.24360
.28400
.32068
0.30562
.17867
.19546
.21170
0.69385
.82074
.80392
.78767
0.53
.59
.62
.63
374.54
309.00
373.81
437.33
428.54
226.64
257.27
288.70
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
.00064
.00065
.00066
.00066
.00067
.00068
.00069
.00071
.00073
.00076
.66272
.66480
.67447
.69094
.70834
.72338
.74021
.76015
.77631
.78934
.33664
.33455
.32487
.30840
.29099
.27594
.25910
.23914
.22296
.20990
.19141
.17455
.16531
.16111
.16039
.15667
.15198
.14597
.14114
.13622
.80795
.82480
.83403
.83823
.83894
.84265
.84733
.85332
.85813
.86302
.64
.65
.66
.66
.67
.68
.69
.71
.73
.76
457.75
449.13
430.68
403.31
376.09
352.38
326.39
296.41
272.80
254.04
260.28
234.33
219.16
210.70
207.29
200.06
191.45
180.92
172.70
164.87
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
.00080
.00084
.00089
.00095
.00103
.00111
.00121
.00132
.00148
.00162
.79668
.80077
.79942
.80139
.80447
.80776
.81138
.81302
.81589
.82036
.20252
.19839
.19969
.19766
.19450
.19113
.18741
.18566
.18265
.17802
.12935
.12011
.11070
.10508
.09908
.09690
.09746
.09655
.09475
.09266
.86985
.87905
.88841
.89397
.89989
.90199
.90133
.90213
.90379
.90572
.80
.84
.89
.95
1.03
1.11
1.21
1.32
1.46
1.62
243.02
236.19
236.60
233.15
228.22
223.56
218.83
216.47
212.40
206.24
155.22
142.99
131.17
123.95
116.26
113.34
113.80
112.57
110.19
107.36
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
.00180
.00199
.00219
.00240
.00263
.00287
.00314
.00343
.00375
.00409
.82135
.82523
.82888
.83601
.84272
.84581
.85081
.85729
.86181
.87281
.17685
.17278
.16893
.16159
.15465
.15132
.14605
.13928
.13444
.12310
.09144
.09075
.08934
.08883
.08795
.09038
.09107
.09144
.09320
.09353
.90676
.90726
.90847
.90877
.90942
.90675
.90579
.90513
.90305
.90238
1.80
1.99
2.19
2.40
2.63
2.87
3.14
3.44
3.76
4.10
204.65
199.43
194.44
185.20
176.49
172.65
166.26
158.02
152.31
138.65
105.81
104.75
102.82
101.81
100.37
103.13
103.67
103.74
105.59
105.35
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
.00446
.00486
.00528
.00570
.00614
.00659
.00710
.00771
.00847
.00934
.88348
.89035
.89458
.90099
.90811
.91553
.92168
.92796
.93094
.93496
.11206
.10479
.10014
.09331
.08575
.07788
.07122
.06433
.06059
.05570
.09416
.09449
.09534
.09523
.09472
.09756
.10308
.11402
.12784
.14252
.90138
.90065
.89938
.89907
.89914
.89585
.88982
.87827
.86369
.84814
4.47
4.87
5.29
5.72
6.16
6.61
7.13
7.74
8.51
9.38
125.54
116.99
111.61
103.64
94.87
85.96
78.61
71.20
67.49
62.44
105.48
105.49
106.26
105.78
104.78
107.68
113.77
126.20
142.41
159.77
60
61
62
63
64
65
.01033
.01135
.01228
.01304
.01373
.01443
.01532
.01650
.01807
.02001
.93936
.94498
.94921
.95159
.95223
.95367
.95469
.95654
.95792
.95890
.05031
.04367
.03851
.03537
.03404
.03190
.02999
.02696
.02401
.02109
.16694
.18998
.21580
.23774
.25932
.27737
.29003
.29913
.30155
.29901
.82273
.79867
.77192
.74922
.72695
.70820
.69465
.68437
.68038
.68098
10.38
11.41
12.36
13.13
13.82
14.53
15.44
16.64
18.23
20.21
57.07
50.05
44.70
41.55
40.49
38.34
36.31
32.80
29.25
25.67
189.35
217.74
250.53
279.26
308.48
333.34
351.14
363.96
367.42
363.92
.02209
.02433
.02701
.03023
.03392
.03798
.95875
.95840
.95825
.95920
.95764
.95900
.01916
.01727
.01474
.01057
.00844
.00299
.30904
.31371
.30212
.27706
.25970
.37001
.66887
.66196
.67087
.69271
.70638
.59199
22.34
24.63
27.38
30.69
34.51
38.72
23.49
21.26
18.04
12.76
10.11
3.84
378.85
386.18
369.84
334.47
311.18
474.73
21
22
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
12
Table A-7. Stationary population and labor force, status transfers, and transfers remaining at each age: Women, 1977
Expected number of
transfers remaining
per person aged x
Number of transfers occurring between
specified states during age interval
x to x + 1
Stationary population surviving
to exact age x by
labor force status at that age
Separations
Accessions
Age
Total
Inactive
i
a
I
I
Active
I
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
Active
to
dead
Inactive
to
dead
i a
t
i d
t
a i
t
a d
t
X
X
X
x
X
Active
to
inactive
Inactive
to
active
Accessions
i
a
E
Voluntary
separations
a
i
E
X
X
X
(1)
(5)
(7)
(6)
(8)
0)
(10)
16
17
18
19
98,210
98,158
98,100
98,039
73,943
61,569
53,072
46,768
24,267
36,589
45,028
51,271
25,378
17,712
18,661
19,541
36
34
31
28
13,040
9,249
12,388
15,396
16
24
30
34
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
97,977
97,915
97,851
97,787
97,722
97,656
97,589
97,521
97,452
97,381
42,595
38,829
36,127
34,571
34,071
34,342
34,761
35,279
35,903
36,559
55,382
59,086
61,724
63,216
63,651
63,314
62,828
62,242
61,549
60,822
18,636
16,833
15,224
13,842
12,865
12,176
11,431
10,550
9,884
9,362
26
24
23
23
23
24
24
25
26
28
14,897
14,155
13,691
13,365
13,160
12,618
11,972
11,199
10,567
9,973
37
39
41
42
43
43
43
44
45
46
3.4
3.3.
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
97,307
97,230
97,148
97,061
96,969
96,869
96,761
96,644
96,516
96,375
37,143
37,374
37,117
36,318
35,487
34,640
34,011
33,712
33,484
33,292
60,164
59,856
60,031
60,743
61,482
62,229
62,750
62,932
63,032
63,083
9,055
8,797
8,687
8,371
8,002
7,674
7,410
7,273
7,092
6,852
30
31
33
34
36
38
41
44
49
54
9,315
8,571
7,921
7,575
7,191
7,083
7,151
7,090
6,948
6,771
48
50
54
58
64
69
76
83
92
102
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
96,219
96,046
95,855
95,645
95,416
95,165
94,892
94,594
94,269
93,916
33,157
33,000
32,954
32,934
33,104
33,378
33,816
34,333
34,944
35,644
63,062
63,046
62,901
62,711
62,312
61,787
61,076
60,261
59,325
58,272
6,769
6,576
6,405
6,115
5,866
5,800
5,665
5,473
5,375
5,005
60
66
72
79
88
97
107
119
133
148
6,671
6,596
6,458
6,364
6,228
6,335
6,289
6,203
6,208
6,070
114
125
138
150
163
177
191
205
221
236
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
.8
.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
93,532
93,115
92,662
92,176
91,648
91,085
90,484
89,842
89,149
88,394
36,561
37,665
38,775
39,826
40,867
41,921
43,176
44,672
46,604
48,824
56,971
55,450
53,887
52,350
50,781
49,164
47,308
45,170
42,545
39,570
4,659
4,471
4,386
4,181
3,927
3,657
3,452
3,249
3,220
3,125
166
186
208
231
255
281
313
353
406
470
5,929
5,767
5,644
5,454
5,236
5,193
5,259
5,534
5,846
6,058
251
266
281
295
308
319
329
339
349
356
.7
.7
.6
.6
.6
.5
.5
.4
.4
.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
.8
.8
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
87,568
86,663
85,679
84,627
83,523
82,377
81,188
79,944
78,625
77,204
51,288
54,234
57,411
60,595
63,375
65,573
67,195
68,209
68,755
68,838
36,280
32,429
28,268
24,032
20,148
16,804
13,993
11,735
9,870
8,366
3,012
2,795
2,638
2,576
2,611
2,545
2,459
2,247
2,013
1,763
548
637
729
814
892
965
1,045
1,140
1,255
1,388
6,507
6,610
6,553
6,170
5,701
5,134
4,518 .
3,932
3,351
2,824
357
347
323
290
255
224
199
180
166
157
.3
.3
.3
.3
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.7
.7
.6
.5
.5
.4
.3
.3
.2
.2
70
71
72
73
74
75
75,660
73,989
72,189
70,239
68,116
65,805
68,511
67,895
66,982
65,759
64,317
62,579
7,149
6,094
5,207
4,480
3,799
3,226
1,601
1,432
1,196
829
641
237
1,522
1,660
1,816
1,995
2,187
2,395
2,507
2,180
1,790
1,383
1,092
1,263
148
139
133
127
121
103
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.0
13
'
Table A-8. Person years of life lived by the stationary population at and beyond exact age x: Women, 1977
Person years lived in each status
beyond e xact age x
Person years lived in each status
during age x
Age
Total
Inactive
L
L
Active
Total
Inactive
T
T
a
i
L
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
A ctive
a
i
X
T
X
X
X
(D
(5)
(6)
(7)
16
17
18
19
98,185
98,130
98,070
98,008
67,757
57,321
49,920
44,681
30,428
40,809
48,150
53,327
6,133,675
6,035,490
5,937,360
5,839,290
3,411,047
3,343,290
3,285,969
3,236,049
2,722,628
2,692,200
2,651,391
2,603,241
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
97,947
97,884
97,820
97,755
97,690
97,625
97,557
97,489
97,419
97,346
40,712
37,479
35,349
34,321
34,207
34,553
35,021
35,592
36,232
36,852
57,235
60,405
62,471
63,434
63,483
63,072
62,536
61,897
61,187
60,494
5,741,282
5,643,335
5,545,451
5,447,631
5,349,876
5,252,186
5,154,561
5,057,004
4,959,515
4,862,096
3,191,367
3,150,655
3,113,176
3,077,827
3,043,506
3,009,299
2,974,746
2,939,725
2,904,134
2,867,902
2,549,915
2,492,680
2,432,275
2,369,804
2,306,370
2,242,887
2,179,815
2,117,279
2,055,381
1,994,194
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
97,271
97,191
97,107
97,018
96,921
96,813
96,701
96,578
96,444
96,295
37,259
37,246
36,718
35,904
35,064
34,325
33,861
33,597
33,388
33,224
60,012
59,945
60,389
61,114
61,857
62,488
62,840
62,981
63,056
63,071
4,764,750
4,667,479
4,570,288
4,473,181
4,376,163
4,279,242
4,182,429
4,085,728
3,989,150
3,892,706
2,831,050
2,793,791
2,756,545
2,719,827
2,683,924
2,648,859
2,614,534
2,580,673
2,547,076
2,513,688
1,933,700
1,873,688
1,813,743
1,753,354
1,692,239
1,630,383
1,567,895
1,505,055
1,442,074
1,379,018
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
96,128
95,945
95,746
95,526
95,285
95,021
94,736
94,424
94,085
93,717
33,077
32,975
32,943
33,018
33,239
33,594
34,072
34,636
35,291
36,100
63,051
62,970
62,803
62,508
62,046
61,427
60,664
59,788
58,794
57,617
3,796,411
3,700,283
3,604,338
3,508,592
3,413,066
3,317,781
3,222,760
3,128,024
3,033,600
2,939,515
2,480,465
2,447,388
2,414,413
2,381,470
2,348,453
2,315,214
2,281,619
2,247,547
2,212,911
2,177,620
1,315,946
1,252,895
1,189,925
1,127,122
1,064,613
1,002,567
941,141
880,477
820,689
761,895
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
93,320
92,885
92,414
91,907
91,363
90,764
90,143
89,475
88,752
87,960
37,112
38,218
39,298
40,344
41,393
42,539
43,914
45,627
47,703
50,044
56,208
54,667
53,116
51,563
49,970
48,225
46,229
43,848
41,049
37,916
2,845,798
2,752,478
2,659,593
2,567,179
2,475,272
2,383,909
2,293,145
2,203,002
2,113,527
2,024,775
2,141,520
2,104,408
2,066,190
2,026,892
1,986,547
1,945,155
1,902,616
1,858,701
1,813,074
1,765,371
704,278
648,070
593,403
540,287
488,725
438,754
390,529
344,301
300,453
259,404
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
87,137
86,192
85,174
84,097
82,971
81,795
80,578
79,297
77,927
76,445
52,774
55,836
59,018
62,001
64,490
66,394
67,712
68,493
68,807
68,686
34,363
30,356
26,156
22,096
18,481
15,401
12,866
10,804
9,120
7,759
1,936,815
1,849,678
1,763,486
1,678,312
1,594,215
1,511,244
1,429,449
1,348,871
1,269,574
1,191,647
1,715,327
1,662,552
1,606,716
1,547,699
1,485,698
1,421,208
1,354,813
1,287,101
1,218,608
1,149,801
221,488
187,126
156,770
130,613
108,517
90,036
74,636
61,770
50,966
41,846
70
71
72
73
74
75
74,768
73,033
71,157
69,121
66,904
64,531
68,151
67,387
66,318
64,985
63,395
61,870
6,617
5,646
4,839
4,136
3,509
2,661
1,115,202
1,040,434
967,401
896,244
827,123
760,219
1,081,115
1,012,964
945,577
879,259
814,274
750,880
34,087
27,470
21,824
16,985
12,849
9,339
14
Table A-9. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years remaining at each age by current labor force
status: Men, 1970
(In years)
Current labor force status
Age
Expectation
of
life
Expectation
of
active life
Expectation
of
inactive life
e
X
a
X
Expectation
of
inactive life
a
i
X
Expectation
of
active life
i
a
X
Expectation
of
inactive life
i
i
e
e
e
e
e
X
Expectation
of
active life
a
i
a
e
Not in the labor force
In the labor force
Total population
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
16
17
18
19
53.3
52.3
51.4
50.5
38.7
38.4
38.1
37.7
14.6
13.9
13.3
12.8
39.8
39.5
39.0
38.5
13.4
12.8
12.4
12.0
38.3
37.8
37.4
37.0
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
49.6
48.7
47.8
46.9
46.0
45.1
44.2
43.3
42.4
41.5
37.3
36.8
36.3
35.7
35.1
34.4
33.7
33.0
32.2
31.4
12.3
11.9
11.6
11.2
11.0
10.7
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.1
38.0
37.5
36.9
36.3
35.7
34.9
34.2
33.3
32.5
31.6
11.6
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.9
36.4
35.8
35.1
34.4
33.7
32.9
32.2
31.5
30.7
29.8
13.2
12.9
12.7
12.6
12.4
12.2
12.0
11.9
11.7
11.7
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40.6
39.7
38.7
37.8
36.9
36.0
35.1
34.2
33.3
32.4
30.6
29.7
28.8
27.9
27.0
26.1
25.2
24.3
23.4
22.6
10.0
10.0
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
30.7
29.8
28.9
28.0
27.1
26.2
25.3
24.4
23.5
22.7
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
29.0
28.1
27.2
26.3
25.2
24.1
22.9
21.7
20.5
19.3
11.6
11.5
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.2
12.5
12.8
13.1
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
31.5
30.7
29.8
28.9
28.1
27.3
26.4
25.6
24.8
24.0
21.7
20.8
19.9
19.1
18.2
17.4
16.6
15.8
15.0
14.2
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
21.8
21.0
20.2
19.3
18.5
17.7
16.9
16.1
15.4
14.6
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
18.1
17.0
15.9
14.9
14.0
13.0
12.1
11.2
10.3
9.4
13.4
13.7
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.6
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
23.2
22.4
21.7
20.9
20.2
19.5
18.8
18.1
17.4
16.7
13.4
12.6
11.8
11.0
10.3
9.5
8.8
8.1
7.4
6.7
9.8
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.1
13.8
13.0
12.3
11.6
10.8
10.1
9.4
8.7
8.0
7.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
8.6
7.9
7.1
6.4
5.8
5.3
4.8
4.3
3.8
3.4
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.5
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
13.4
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
16.1
15.5
14.9
14.3
13.7
13.1
12.6
12.1
11.5
11.0
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.1
3.6
3.1
2.7
2.3
1.9
1.7
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.6
9.4
6.7
6.2
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.3
9.4
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.3
8.1
7.8
3.0
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
.8
13.1
12.9
12.6
12.3
12.0
11.7
11.4
11.0
10.6
10.2
70
71
72
73
74
75
10.6
10.1
9.6
9.2
8.8
8.3
1.4
1.2
1.0
.9
.8
.6
9.1
8.9
8.6
8.3
8.0
7.7
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.3
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.9
7.0
.7
.7
.6
.5
.5
.5
9.8
9.4
9.0
8.6
8.2
7.8
(1 )
'
15
Table A-10. Expectation of life and of economically active and inactive years remaining at each age by current labor force
status: Women, 1970
(In years)
Current labor force status
In the labor force
Total population
Age
Expectation
of
life
Expectation
of
active life
Expectation
of
inactive life
X
X
a
i
a
e
e
Expectation
of
active life
e
a
Expectation
of
inactive life
a
i
e
e
x
Not in the labor force
Expectation
of
active life
i
a
e
Expectation
of
inactive life
i
i
e
X
X
X
X
X
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
16
17
18
19
60.6
59.6
58.7
57.7
22.5
22.3
22.0
21.6
38.1
37.3
36.7
36.1
23.5
23.4
22.9
22.5
37.1
36.3
35.8
35.2
22.3
21.9
21.5
21.1
38.3
37.7
37.1
36.6
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
56.7
55.8
54.8
53.9
52.9
51.9
51.0
50.0
49.1
48.1
21.3
20.8
20.4
19.9
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.1
17.6
17.1
35.5
34.9
34.4
33.9
33.4
32.9
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
22.1
21.7
21.4
21.0
20.6
20.2
19.8
19.4
19.0
18.6
34.6
34.0
33.5
32.9
32.3
31.8
31.2
30.7
30.1
29.5
20.7
20.1
19.6
19.0
18.4
17.9
17.3
16.8
16.4
15.9
36.1
35.7
35.3
34.9
34.5
34.1
33.7
33.2
32.7
32.2
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
47.2
46.2
45.3
44.3
43.4
42.4
41.5
40.6
39.6
38.7
16.7
16.3
15.8
15.4
15.0
14.6
14.1
13.7
13.3
12.8
30.5
29.9
29.4
28.9
28.4
27.9
27.4
26.9
26.4
25.9
18.2
17.8
17.5
17.1
16.7
16.3
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.7
29.0
28.4
27.8
27.2
26.7
26.1
25.6
25.1
24.5
24.0
15.5
15.0
14.6
14.1
13.6
13.1
12.6
12.1
11.6
11.1
31.7
31.2
30.7
30.2
29.7
29.3
28.9
28.4
28.0
27.7
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
37.8
36.9
36.0
35.1
34.2
33.3
32.4
31.5
30.7
29.8
12.3
11.9
11.4
10.9
10.4
9.9
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
25.5
25.0
24.6
24.2
23.7
23.3
22.9
22.5
22.2
21.8
14.2
13.8
13.3
12.8
12.4
11.9
11.5
11.1
10.6
10.2
23.6
23.1
22.7
22.3
21.8
21.4
20.9
20.5
20.0
19.6
10.5
10.0
9.5
8.9
8.3
7.8
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.7
27.3
26.9
26.5
26.2
25.8
25.5
25.1
24.8
24.4
24.1
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
28.9
28.1
27.2
26.4
25.6
24.8
24.0
23.2
22.4
21.6
7.5
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.7
5.2
4.8
4.3
3.9
3.5
21.4
21.0
20.7
20.3
19.9
19.6
19.2
18.8
18.5
18.1
9.7
9.2
8.8
8.3
7.9
7.4
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.6
19.2
18.8
18.4
18.1
17.7
17.3
17.0
16.7
16.3
16.0
5.2
4.7
4.3
3.8
3.4
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8
23.7
23.4
23.0
22.6
22.1
21.7
21.2
20.8
20.3
19.8
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
20.8
20.0
19.3
18.5
17.8
17.0
16.3
15.6
14.9
14.3
3.1
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
17.7
17.3
16.9
16.5
16.1
15.6
15.1
14.6
14.1
13.6
5.2
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
15.6
15.3
14.9
14.5
14.1
13.6
13.1
12.6
12.1
11.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
.9
.8
.6
.5
.4
.3
.3
19.2
18.7
18.1
17.6
17.0
16.4
15.8
15.2
14.6
14.0
70
71
72
73
74
75
13.6
12.9
12.3
11.7
11.1
10.5
.5
.4
.3
.2
.2
.1
13.1
12.5
12.0
11.5
10.9
10.4
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.4
.8
11.1
10.7
10.3
10.0
9.7
9.7
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
13.4
12.8
12.2
11.6
11.0
10.5
(1)
•
16
The increment-decrement working life table rests on Transition probabilities (^x2)- These probabilities
information about the flow of persons between labor (shown in tables A-2 and A-6) indicate the likelihood
force statuses over a 1-year period. The flows in ques that an individual of a given sex, age, and labor force
tion are outlined in figure 1.
status at time 1 will appear in each of three possible
categories one year later (i.e. active, inactive, or dead).
Data input. Movement between these states is estimated Because these three outcomes exhaust all possibilities,
from information collected by the Current Population the sum of the probabilities is unity. That is,
Survey (CPS). Using the records of respondents who
were interviewed in two successive January surveys
(here either 1970/1971 or 1977/1978), labor force ' p i + ' p “ + ‘ p x = 1
statuses at the beginning and end of the year are com
pared. Surviving respondents are classified as “ actives” ap“. + “Pi + up.v = 1
or “inactives” if their status is identical at the two
points in time, and “entrants” or “exits” if the status where:
changes. The number lost to reinterview through death i = economically inactive
must be estimated separately, using the standard mor a = economically active
tality function qx(here denoted °P*) from annual life
tables published by the National Center for Health d — dead
Statistics.
= the probability that a person age x and
Life table calculations are performed on single-year in status 1 at the beginning of the inter
of-age data. The reference period for events in these
val
will be in status 2 exactly one year
tables is that between two exact ages, referred to as x
later.
and x+i. Survey data have a somewhat different age
reference, since the average person claiming to be “x”
years old is actually halfway between his (x) and his Because of the lack of solid information on mortality
(xx l) th birthays, or x+ 1/2 years of age. Before develop differentials by labor force status, it has been assumed
ing the life table functions, therefore, survey data must that:
be recentered on the appropriate interval. The exact age
counts are derived from survey values as follows. Using
the example of persons economically active at age “x” : 'p* = "Pv = ‘Px
where:
actives,^ , + actives,,^,
actives = --------------------------------------
2
= = all persons alive
The subscripts refer to the age of persons at the begin
The transition probabilities are computed as row
ning of the 1-year interval.
percentages from the age-adjusted data of figure 1. For
Figure 1. Labor force flows identified in the 1970 and 1977 increment-decrement working life tables
State at time 2, age x +1
State at time 1, age x
Total
In labor fo rc e ..........................
Not in labor fo r c e ..................
Group A
Group B
In labor force
Actives
Entrants
17
Not in labor force
Exits
Inactives
Dead
Deaths of actives
Deaths of inactives
instance, the probability of entering the labor force over
the year’s interval from age x to age x +1 is computed as:
The number of such transfers is shown in tables A-3 and
entrantsv
A-7.
'p" = --------------group Bv
Remaining labor force entries ( ‘Ex ) and exits ( a£x )
Rates of transfer between statuses ( Imx2 ). These rates per person. The average number of labor force entries
and exits remaining per person is computed by summing
the relevant transfer values ( lta or atx ) from a given
age to the end of the table and dividing by persons alive
at the beginning of the age, 0lx
(which appear in tables A-2 and A-6) denote the number
of transfers from state 1 to state 2 during the interval
from exact age x to exact age x+ i,per thousand persons
age x in the stationary population. As a ratio of events
to population, these rates make allowance for the fact
that a single individual may change his or her status
repeatedly during a 1-year period. Transfer rates are
computed from transition probabilities as follows:
Expectation of life ( ef ) , inactive life (°e/ f and
working life (°ex ) for the population. The stationary
population values of tables A-3 and A-7 can be read to
represent a longitudinal history of a single birth cohort,
showing the labor force status of survivors at each suc
4 * ap'.
cessive
birthday.
" m '.
(1 + “p") (1 + 'p'.) - ("P' * fP£)
Assuming that changes in status (i.e., deaths and
labor force entries and exits) are evenly distributed
and so on. The probability of transition and the rate of throughout the year, the total number alive at mid-year
transfer for a given age are positively related: the higher ( Lx ) should be precisely half the sum of those alive at
the likelihood of changing status over a 1-year interval, the beginning and end of the interval.
the greater the rate of transfer, and the larger the dif
ference between their respective values.
2
The stationary population ( '1±)> inactive population
( 11x ), and stationary labor force ( a/x ). These func
tions denote the number of persons who would remain This figure should also represent the number of “person
years of life” lived by the group as it passes through age
x (tables A-4 and A-8). Similarly, “ person years of inac
tivity” can be estimated as:
in each labor force status at successive ages if 100,000
persons of the same sex, born at the same time, were
survived through life at the mortality and labor force
probabilities existing in the base population during the
reference year. The stationary population at any given
age x is merely persons alive at the beginning of the
previous age, multiplied by the probability of surviving
that age:
°l ;
=
%
+
% +I
2
and so on. Summing person years (of life, inactivity, or
activity) from age x to the end of the table and dividing
by persons alive at exact age x, we derive average years
•!, = °lv./ ★ ’p ;r or *1^ * (1 - •p?)
of life, inactivity, or activity per person in the stationary
Transfer rates are used to determine how many persons population. For example, the average worklife expec
will be active and inactive at each successive age. For in tancy is:
stance, the number of inactives at age x is equal to the
oo
stock of inactives one year earlier, plus persons leaving
the labor force during the interval, minus those entering
age Z= x •L" °T"
’e" =
the labor force, minus inactives who died.
•
' 1.
=
'1 , . , +
(“ V ,
*
“< , )
-
C l, ., *
1
.
• i.
Labor force status-specific expectations of life ( aex.
'ex' }, active life ( Uexa, ‘exa ), and inactive life ( ‘ex‘, ‘ef ).
H ;>
- ('Iw * '< />
The expectancy functions for the population as a whole,
above, were developed using a Markov chain calcula
This function can be restated in terms of numbers tion in which a specific cohort of individuals (i.e., those
who transferred between states 1 and 2 during the inter born at the same time) were traced through a lifetime of
val ( !tx2 ), as follows:
labor force entries and exits to quantify total average
18
work duration. By the same token, it is possible to iden
tify other cohorts (e.g., those in the labor force at a
specific age) and to trace their subsequent worklife pat
terns. The procedure is the same: at each age survivors
of the initial cohort are subjected to the transfer rates
appropriate to their current age and status, to determine
how many will enter the next age interval in each status
group. The resulting stationary population profile is
translated into person years of activity or inactivity lived
by the group in each interval. These values are summed
across ages, then averaged over persons of the relevant
sex alive and in a given statusat the initial age.
Because there are 2 sexes, 2 labor force statuses, and
60 ages of interest in the tables, this entire procedure
must be repeated 240 times to develop the expectancies
shown in the last 4 columns of tables A-l and A-5. The
expectancies are denoted &ex (years of activity remain
sJ-U.S. Government P r in tin g O ffic e : 1982
381-608/3875
19
ing to persons currently active), lexa (and to those cur
rently inactive), &ex1 (years of inactivity remaining to
persons currently active), and lex (to those currently in
active) for any age x.
Interpretation of worklife expectancy values. These
tables measure movement into and out of the labor
force, rather than flows into and out of employment per
se. Hence measures of “worklife” actually include
periods of unemployment.
These estimates in no way control for differences in
hours worked by age or sex. They simply summarize the
number of years during which the average individual
would be attached to the labor force if prevailing rates
of mortality and labor force entry and exit remained in
effect throughout a lifetime.
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