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XXI BOSTON, MASS., MARCH 1, 1939 NO. 3 THE SITUATION In New England during January the level of year. During each of the last five months of 1938 general business activity was moderately lower than shoe production in this district was larger than in that which prevailed in December, after allowances the corresponding month of 1937, with an aggregate had been made for customary seasonal changes. The increase amounting to 26.0 per cent for the entire reduction in total construction contracts awarded five months' period. in this district between December and January was There was a sharp decline to $11,620,000 in January the principal retarding influence, although wool con- in New England in the total value of new construction sumption also decreased more than seasonally. On contracts awarded from the total reported in Decemthe other hand, there were increases between Decem- ber of $37,490,000, but in January, 1938, the amount was $9,939,000. Between ber and January in boot and shoe production and December, 1938,andJanRETAIL SALES IN MASSACHUSETTS in raw cotton consumpuary, 1939, there were January, 1939, compared with January, 1938 sizable decreases in each tion. Total revenue P erNumber centage of the four major buildfreight carloadings durTotal Number Number R eporting Change GRO UP Number R eporting Reporting No in ing classifications, the ing the four-week period Reporting Increase Decrease Change Dollars smallest of which was a ending February 4 in 89 27 54 8 - 2.7 % F ood . . . ... . General Mer24.1 per cent reduction New England were about 42 chandise . . . 9 58 109 + 0.1 in residential contracts. three per cent larger than 13 36 Automotive .. +14.9 50 39 Appa rel . ... . 51 3 - 5.8 93 In January, as compared in the corresponding Furnit ure and H ousehold, with a year ago, total period in 1938, and sales 67 44 22 R adio .. . . . - 5.7 contracts increased 16.9 of New England departR estaurants and Ea ting per cent, with gains of ment stores and apparel 13 5 Places . .. .. 34 16 + 0.9 1 + 23.9 Lumb er .... . 45 36 8 about 170 and 60 per shops during January Coal. . . .... . 75 33 39 3 - 0.3 cent in public works and were 1.8 per cent lower 27 14 44 Drugs . .. .. . . 3 + 2.8 21 29 5 55 H ardware . . . + 4.3 residential contracts, rethan in January last 15 2 Miscellaneou s 15 - 0.5 32 spectively, and decreases year. Sales in Boston 41 292 TOTAL . . .. . 360 693 + 0.7% of 66.0 and 44.4 per cent, department stores durrespectively, in the pubing the period February 1-18, 1939, were 0.2 per cent lower than in the cor- lic utilities and non-residential groups. The total number of wage-earners employedinrepreresponding period a year ago. Cotton consumption by mills in New England sen ta tive manufacturing establishments in Massachuduring January was 74,312 bales, as compared with setts during January was 1.1 per cent smaller than in 71,253 bales in December and 49,865 bales in December and the amount of aggregate weekly payJanuary last year. Average consumption for the rolls was 1. 7 per cent less, but these declines were not month of January in this district has been 76,295 as large as the average decreases between December bales over the past seven years. The amount of raw and January of 2.0 per cent in employment and 2.9 wool consumed in New England during January, on per cent in payrolls which have occurred over the 13a daily average basis, was nearly 17 per cent less year period 1926-1938, inclusive, according to the than in December, but was more than double the Massachusetts Department of Labor and Industries. amount consumed in January, 1938. Manufacturing employment in Rhode Island durProduction of boots and shoes during January in ing January was 1.3 per cent under that in December, New England is estimated to have been 12,273,000 but was 19.6 per cent larger than in January last year, pairs. This total was 28.8 per cent higher than the and, although in January the amount of aggregate December figure and was 30.7 per cent larger than payrolls dropped 2.1 per cent from December, it was the production of 9,389,000 pairs in January last 20.5 per cent over January, 1938. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON March 1, MONEY AND BANKING Money rates in the Boston money market showed guaranteed United States obligations continued to little fluctuation during the past four weeks ending rise in this four-week period to reach an all-time peak February 15. The asking rate of bankers' 90-day of $26,000,000. Reserves of these reporting Boston . acceptances continued unchanged at 1/i6 of one per member banks carried with the Federal Reserve cent. Open market commercial paper remained the Bank of Boston showed wide and frequent fluctuasame as reported a month ago, namely, .½ to ¾ of tions between January 18 and February 15. On the one per cent; customers' rates on commercial loans latter date the figure stood at $261,000,000, a decrease also remained at the month ago figure of 1.½ to four of $38,000,000, compared with a month ago. Vault per cent. The average yields in the open market on cash showed little or no change. In the weekly reporting New England member both long-term United States Treasury bonds and short-term Treasury notes revealed a slight down- banks outside of Boston the downward trend in total ward tendency, while the rate of the February 15 deposits (exclusive of items in process of collection) issue of 91-day Treasury bills showed a fractional was less marked than in the Boston banks, as the decline in these deposits amounted to $11,000,000, increase to .005 per cent: as compared with $36,000,000 in the Boston group. MONEY RATES AT BOSTON Demand deposits (similarly adjusted) showed a sharp Year 1939 M onth Ago Feb. 15 Ago drop during the four weeks, which was also true of Brokers' quick call loans .. . . . . . . .. . 1¼% 1¼% 1¼% balances due to domestic banks, while United States Loans secured by bonds and st ocks . . l ¼ -4 1¼-4 3-4½ Open market commercial paper and balances due to foreign banks showed deposits four to six months . .. . . . .. .. .. . ½-% 1 ½-% Bankers' acceptances - 90 days .... . slight variation. Total loans and discounts declined ¼ ¼ ¼ Customers' rate on comm ercial loans. 1½-4 1½ -4 1¼-4½ Treasury Securities : sharply owing to the decrease in other loans for purAverage yield on Treasu ry bonds chasing and carrying securities, and miscellaneous (more than five y ears to earliest call date) .. ...... . ... . ...... . 1.99 2 .01 2. 26 loans; open market paper, real estate and brokers' Average yield on Treasury notes (one t o five years) ........... . .72 . 33 .34 loans varied imperceptibly. Total loans and investAverage rate on lat est Treasury bill sale: 91-day issu e ..... .. .. . . 005 . 08 o+ ments of these outside reporting member banks Rediscount rat e (Boston ) .......... . 1½ 1½ 1½ Buying rate for 90-day endorsed bills showed an increase of $2,000,000 between January (Boston) .. .. ... .... ... . ...... . . ½ ½ ½ 18 and February 15, and a loss of $7,000,000 when compared with the same date a year ago. Reserves Total deposits (exclusive of items in process of held by these banks with the Federal Reserve Bank collection) in the weekly reporting member banks in of Boston declined slightly and holdings•of vault cash Boston stood at $1,086,000,000 on February 15, in these banks' own vaults decreased $1,000,000 in showing a decline of $36,000,000 during the past four the past four weeks. weeks; despite this fact the figure remains at a level In the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston no marked $54,000,000 higher than the figure of a year ago. change took place in the composition of total bills Demand deposits (also excluding items in process of and securities owned. During the four-week period collection) declined $34,000,000 between January 18 industrial advances decreased $7,000,000 as repayand February 15 and yet were, on this latter date, ments exceeded new loans, dropping to the lowest $27,000,000 higher than on the corresponding date a level since January, 1935, while acceptances showed year ago. United States deposits remained relatively a slight gain over the month ago figure. Total unchanged during the four-week period, while bal- cash reserves increased to $743,000,000 between ances due to domestic banks showed a decline of January 18 and February 15. The volume of Federal $2,000,000; balances due to foreign banks, however, reserve notes in actual circulation showed little or rose $2,000,000 so that on February 15 they stood no fluctuation during this period, remaining, howat $20,000,000, as compared with $8,000,000 a year ever, at a figure considerably higher than that of a ago. During the past four weeks commercial loans, year ago. Member bank reserve deposits carried by open market paper, brokers' loans and real estate all banks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston loans have shown a slight decrease; all, with the decreased $45,000,000 when compared with the exception of brokers' loans are appreciably lower month ago figure. The increase in United States when compared with the corresponding date of a deposits is for the most part responsible for the year ago. Total loans and investments declined slight rise which took place in total deposits. $27,000,000 between January 25 and February 8; Savings on deposit in 61 mutual savings banks in the following week, however, they rose $19,000,000 New England showed an increase when compared recovering much of the loss sustained in the previous with a month ago in each of the six states; despite weeks. This is due for the most part to the wide this increase, however, the total remains $7,000,000 fluctuations of United States direct obligations; lower than a year ago at this time. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1939 3 MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON CONDITION OF REPORTING NEW ENGLAND MEMBER BANKS (Amounts in Millions of Dollars) BOSTON Feb. 15, Deposits: Demand Deposits (adjusted) ......... . .... . ............................. . Balances Due to Domestic Banks ........................................ . Balances Due to Foreign Banks ......................................... . United States Deposits ................................................. . Time Deposits ........................................................ . TOTAL DEPOSITS (adjusted) ...................................... . Reurves: Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vault Cash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Balances with other Domestic Banks...................................... TOTAL RESERVES................................ . ................ loans and Investments: Commercial, Industrial and Agricultural Loans ............................ . Open market paper .................................................... . Loans to brokers and dealers in securities ................................. . Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities ........................... . Real Estate Loans ..................................................... . Loans to Banks ....................................................... . Other loans ........................................................... . TOTAL LOANS AND DISCOUNTS ................................. . United States obligations owned ......................................... . Securities guaranteed by U. S ........................................... . Other bonds and stocks owned .......................................... . TOTAL BONDS AND STOCKS OWNED ........................... . TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS ............................. . Month Ago $ 730 225 20 11 100 $1,086 $ 764 227 19 12 100 $1,122 $ 703 186 8 26 109 $1,032 $+ 27 + 39 + 12 - 15 9 $+ 54 + + 261 127 74 $ 462 299 127 70 $ 496 266 25 58 $ 349 5 +102 + 16 $+113 1.9 +408.0 + 27.6 + 32.4% 199 48 28 12 37 2 83 $ 409 $ 255 26 70 200 50 30 18 39 2 74 228 54 24 16 41 4 77 444 289 9 76 374 818 $413 $ 260 18 73 $351 $351 $ 760 $ 764 Year Ago One Year's Change Gain ( +) or Loss ( - ) 1939 $ $ $ $ - + + $$- + - $$- 3.8% 21.0 +150.0 - 57.7 8.3 + 5.2% 29 6 4 4 4 2 6 35 34 17 6 23 58 + - 12.7 11.1 16.7 25.0 9.8 50.0 + 7.8 7.9% - 11.8% +188.9 7.9 6.1% 7.1% EIGHT CITIES OUTSIDE OF BOSTON Deposits: Demand Deposits (adjusted)............................................. $ 329 28 Balances Due to Domestic Banks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * Balances Due to Foreign Banks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . United States Deposits.................................................. 5 Time Deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 TOTAL DEPOSITS (adjusted).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $517 Reurves: Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank ..................................... . 63 Vault Cash ........................................................... . 13 Balances with other Domestic Banks .................................... . 80 TOTAL RESERVES ......... . ...................................... . $156 loans and Investments: Commercial, Industrial and Agricultural Loans ............................ . 54 21 Open market paper .................................................... . Loans to brokers and dealers in securities ........................ . ........ . 1 Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities ........................... . 13 Real Estate Loans ..................................................... . 45 Loans to banks ........................................................ . * 42 Other loans ........................................................... . TOTAL LOANS AND DISCOUNTS ................................. . $176 United States obligations owned ......................................... . ~ Securities guaranteed by U. S...................................... . .... . 16 Other bonds and stocks owned . . ........................................ . 65 TOTAL BONDS AND STOCKS OWNED ........................... . $ 238 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS ............................. . $ 414 *Indicates less than $500,000. $ 339 30 * 5 154 $ 528 $ 316 25 * 2 160 $ 503 $+ 13 + 3 * + 3 5 $+ 14 + 4.1% + 12.0 * +150.0 3.1 + 2.8% 65 14 92 57 12 65 $171 $134 + 6 + 1 + 15 $+ 22 + 10.5 + 8.3 + 23.1 + 16.4% 53 21 1 17 45 * 45 $ 182 67 31 1 18 45 * 43 $ 205 $ 145 13 58 13 10 * 5 0 * 1 $- 29 $+ 12 + 3 + 7 $+ 22 ~ - $157 13 60 $ 230 $ 412 $216 $ 421 + + + + - 19.4 32.3 * 27.8 0 * 2.3 14.1% 8.3% 23.1 12.1 10.2% 1.7% CONDITION OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON (Amounts in Millions of Dollars) Member Bank Reserve Deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 404 U.S. Deposits.......................................................... . 111 25 All Other Deposits........................................................ Total Deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 540 Federal Reserve Notes in actual circulation.................................. 378 Total Cash Reserves............................................. .. ....... 743 Loans to Member Banks Secured by U. S. Obligations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * All Other Loans to Member Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * Total Loans to Member Banks ........................................ . ~ Acceptances Bought in Open Market ..................................... . . * Industrial Advances ............ . . . ................. . ....... . ............ . 2 188 United States Obligations ................................................ . Total Bills and Securities ............................................. . $190 Commitments to make Industrial Advances ................................. . 1 *Indicates less than $500,000. $ 449 71 16 $ 536 376 739 $ 410 7 15 $ 432 275 534 * ~ * 2 188 * ~ * 3 188 $- 6 +104 + 10 $+108 +103 +209 * * -$--* * - 1 0 $190 $191 $-1 * 1 * 1 +148k~% + 66.7 + 25.0% + 37.5 + 39.1 * * !% 33.3 0 .5% 0 0 CHECK TRANSACTIONS (Weekly Totals in Millions of Dollars) Bangor ....... $ Brockton .... . Burlington ... . Fall River ... . Hartford .... . Holyoke ..... . Lowell ...... . Lynn ....... . Manchester. .. New Bedford .. New Haven ... Feb. 15, 1939 Month Ago Year Ago 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 1.8 4.2 4.4 3.3 39.7 42.8 40.5 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.1 3.8 4.6 3.4 13.8 19.1 15.5 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis One Gain $+ + + + + Year's Change ( +) or Loss ( - ) .3 9.7% .2 + 6.3 .2 + 11.1 .9 + 27.3 .8 2.0 .2 9.1 .1 3.4 0 0 .3 + 9.7 .4 + 11.8 1.7 11.0 Feb. 15, 1939 Month Ago Year Ago Portland ..... $ 7.0 $ 8.4 $ 7.0 Providence.. . . 26.8 32.0 26.5 Springfield.. . . 12.5 16.0 13.6 Waterbury.... 5.1 7.5 5.1 Worcester. . . . 10.5 12.7 10. 7 One Year's Change Gain ( +) or Loss ( - ) $ 0 0% + .3 + 1.1 1.1 8.1 0 0 .2 1.9 Total 16 Cities $143.5 Boston ....... 261.8 $170.4 313.5 $145.6 251.8 $- 2.1 + 10.0 GRAND TOTAL 17 Cities ... . $405.3 $483.9 $397.4 + 1.4% 4.0 + 2.0% 4 March 1, MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON NEW ENGLAND INDUSTRIAL CONDITIONS Carloadings :-Total revenue carloadings during the four-week period ending February 4 originating on the six New England railroads, exclusive of the Boston and Albany, which reports under the New York Central Lines, amounted to 92,324, as compared with 89,558 during the corresponding fourweek period in 1938. During the weeks ending January 14 and January 28 there were increases of 10.8 and 4.0 per cent, respectively, but there were decreases of 0.9 per cent and 1.2 per cent during the weeks ending January 21 and February 4, respectiveIy. There was an aggregate increase of 3.1 per cent during the four-week period: TOTAL REVENUE FREIGHT LOADED - SIX NEW ENGLAND RAILROADS EXCLUSIVE OF BOSTON AND ALBANY (Number of Cars) Per Cent Change Week Ending: 1939 1938 1939 compared with 1938 January 14 . . ...... • 24,487 22,110 +10.8% January 21........ 23,023 23,229 - 0.9 January 28........ 22,588 21,728 + 4.0 February 4 . . . . . . . . 22,226 22,491 - 1.2 MERCHANDISE, L.C.L., FREIGHT LOADED SIX NEW ENGLAND RAILROADS (Nuqiber of Cars) Per Cent Change 1939 1938 1939 compared with 1938 Week Ending: January 14.. ...... 10,927 9,782 +11.7% January 21........ 10,485 10,138 + 3.4 January 28 ..... .. . 10,204 9,997 + 2.1 February 4. . . . . . . . 10,051 10,350 - 2.9 MISCELLANEOUS FREIGHT LOADED SIX NEW ENGLAND RAILROADS (Number of Cars) Per Cent Change Week Ending: 1939 1938 1939 compared with 1938 January 14 ....... . 10,203 8,712 +17.1% January 21. . . . . . . . 9,119 8,940 + 2.0 January 28 .. ... ... 8,860 8,532 + 3.8 February 4. . . . . . . . 8,820 8,551 + 3.1 ALL OTHER CLASSES OF FREIGHT LOADED SIX NEW ENGLAND RAILROADS (Number of Cars) Per Cent Change Week Ending: 1939 1939 compared with 1938 1938 January 14 .. .. ... . 3,357 3,616 - 7.2% anuary 21 ..... .. . 3,419 4,151 -17.6 anuary 28 ....... . 3,524 3,199 +10.2 ebruary 4 . .. . ... . - 6.5 3,355 3,590 i Boots and Shoes :-Production of boots and shoes in New England during January is estimated to have been 12,273,000 pairs. This was an increase of 28.8 per cent over December and a gain of 30.7 per cent over January last year. PRINCIPAL CLASSES NEW 1936 40 OF BUILDING 1938 193 7 RESIDENTIAL I PUBLIC WORKS Total. . . . . . . . . & I UTILITIES 30 Non-Residential. ..... . .... ... . R esidential .. .......... . ..... . Public Works ................ . Public Utilities ............... . Total ....................... . 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% CHECK PAYMENTS COMPARISON CONTRACTS BANGOR BROCKTON FALL RIVER MANCHESTER - NEW BEDFORD NEW HAVEN PORTLAND PROVIDENCE SPRINGFIELD WATERBURY WORCESTER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis OF 1938 1939 LYNN ,-- DODc.< CO,_fll +26.0% January 1938 44.4% 29.7 15.2 10.7 LOWELL w, 48,125 December 1938 33.2% 16.6 39.1 11.1 HOLYOKE 30UftC~ , Total. . . . . . . . . January 1939 21.1% 40.6 35.2 3.1 HARTFORD ,__ 60,656 Per Cent Change +11.3% +20.6 +28.8 +47.6 +44.9 Building:-In New England during January the value of total construction contracts awarded was $11,620,000, an amount 69.0 per cent under the total for December of $37,490,000, but 16.9 per cent larger than the January, 1938, total. Between December, 1938, and January, 1939, there were sharp reductions in each of the four major building classifications. These reductions were 91.4 per cent in public utilities, 80.3 per cent in non-residential, 72.0 per cent in public works and 24.1 per cent in residential contracts. In January, 1939, as compared with January, 1938, public works contracts increased 170.3 per cent and residential contracts increased 59.8 per cent, but utilities contracts decreased by 66.0 per cent and total non-residential contracts decreased by 44.4 per cent. The changes in the proportions of the four major classifications to total building in New England for January, 1939, December, 1938, and January, 1938, were: BOSTON RESIDENTIAL fa SHOE PRODUCTION - NEW ENGLAND (In Thousands of Pairs) Last Five Months Number 1937 August .. ... .. . 14,385 September .... . 11,931 9,319 October ...... . 5,915 November .... . 6,575 December .... . Last Five Months Number 1938 August ....... . 16,007 September .. .. . 14,385 October ... ... . 12,002 8,733 November .... . 9,529 December .... . ENGLAND I D NON During the last :five months of 1938 shoe production in this district was 26.0 per cent larger than in the last :five months of 1937, with increases in each of the :five months over the corresponding month of the previous year. In January, 1939, New England shoe production is estimated to have been 36.5 per cent of the United States total. 1939 The detailed changes between January, 1939, and J anuary, 1938, within the major classifications are shown in the following table: CONTRACTS BY CLASSES CLASSIFICATIO N Commercial Buildings . . ... .. . . Manufacturing Buildings . .... . Educational and Science . . .... . Hospitals and Institutions .. . . . Public Buildings . . . .. . . . .... . . Religious Buildings ..... . . . . . . Social and Recreational .... .. . Misc. Non-Residential . . . . ... . Total Non-Residential ... . . . Residential Buildings .. . . .. .. . Grand T otal Building . ... . . . Public Works . . ........... . . . Public Utilities .. .. ... . .... . . . Grand Total Construction .. . N EW E N GLAN D TERRITORY Janu a ry January P er Cent 1939 1938 Valua tion Valuation Change $ 770,000 1,456,000 - 47.1% 423,000 276,000 + 53.3 801,000 1,102,000 - 27.3 78,000 237,000 - 67.1 27.3,000 779,000 - 65.0 9,000 187,000 - 95.2 70,000 241,000 - 71.0 29,000 136,000 - 78.7 2,453,000 $4,414,000 - 44.4% + 59.8% 2.7 % $1,514,000 1,062,000 $9,939,000 +170.3% - 66.0 + 16.9% The value of residential contracts awarded in New England during January, the value of total construction contracts, and the floor area of total construction, for the nine-year period 1931- 1939, inclusive, are shown in the following table: co:rsTRUCTION CONTRACTS- NEW ENGLAND RESIDENTIAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS FLOOR AREA VALUE (Thousands (Thou sands (Thou sands Sq . Ft. ) Dollars) Dollars) $4,894 1,856 15,920 January, 1931 . . .. . . 3,617 1,388 7,589 January , 1932 . .... . 1,783 591 5,006 January, 1933 . .... . 1,754 644 13,030 January, 1934 .. ... . 1,247 545 6,619 January, 1935 . . ... . 2,240 1,902 13,584 January, 1936 . : .. . . 5,280 2,002 13,211 January, 1937 . . . .. . 2,949 1,109 9,939 January, 1938 . .... . 11,620 4,713 1,345 January, 1939 . .. . . . Average . . . . . ... .. . $3, 164 1,265 $10,724 Textiles:-During January the amount of raw cotton consumed by mills in ew England was 74,312 bales, an amount 49.0 per cent larger than in January, 1938, but 19.1 per cent smaller than cotton consumption in January, 1937. In the month of J anuary during the seven-year period 1933- 1939, inclusive, average cotton consumption in ew England was 76,295 bales. In January of 1934, 1935, 1936, and 1937 consumption was over the seven-year average and in J anuary of 1933, 1938, and 1939 consumption was below the seven-year average. The J anuary, 1939, consumption was 2.6 per cent under the average. INDICES SHOE I 2.0 ~ ~ 5 MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON AND I9 3 6 OF EMPLOYMENT LEATHER MANUF'ACTURIN G EMPLOYMEN T I! 3 7 AND IN Wool consumption by mills in this district during January, on a daily average basis, was about 17 per cent under that of December, but was more than double the daily average wool consumption of January, 1938. Employment :- The total number of wageearners employed in 1,789 representative manufacturing establishments in Massachusetts was 267,168 for the week including or ending nearest January 15, a decrease of 3,029 employees, or 1.1 per cent, when compared with the number of 270,197 employed in these same establishments during the corresponding week in December, according to the Massachusetts Department of Labor and Industries. The amount of weekly payrolls for all manufacturing establishments reporting was $5,890,277 for the same week in January, a decrease of $99,462, or 1.7 per cent, below the amount of $5,989,739 for the corresponding week in December. The records for the 13-year period 1926-1938, inclusive, show decreases in January, as compared with December, in nearly all of the years. Employment during this period showed an average decrease of 2.0 per cent, and the amount paid in wages showed an average decrease of 2.9 per cent. The decreases between December, 1938, and January, 1939, were smaller than the average. The following table presents the changes in the principal ind us tries in Massachusetts from December, 1938, to January, 1939, in the number of wageearners and the amount paid in wages: Number of WageE a rners +11.1% - 2.9 - 6.5 - 7.0 + 0.7 + 0.6 MAJOR IN DUSTRIES Boots and shoes ................... . Bread and other bak ery products . . . . . Clothing, men's . ............ . ...... . Clothing, women's .. . ..... . . .. . .... . Cotton goods . ..... . . . .... . . .. .. .. . . Dyeing and finishing t extiles . ... . . .. . Electrical machinery, apparatus, and supplies .. . .. . . .... . ..... . . . ... . . . F oundry a nd machine-shop products . . . H osiery a nd k nit goods ..... . . . ..... . Leath er (tanned, curried, and finished) . P aper and wood pulp .... . ... . ..... . . Printing and publishing, book and job .. Silk and rayon goods ... .. ... . ...... . T extile mach inery and parts . .. . . .... . Woolen and worsted goods . .. ... . ... . PAYROLLS ELECTRIC M A SSA CHU SE T TS PAYRO LLS 1 93 8 1939 POWER NE W 800 - 0.1 1.3 5.0 + 0.5 + 0.5 - 1.7 + 1.9 + 0.2 - 2.2 Amount of Payrolls +26.2% - 1.6 - 5.4 - 12.0 + 1.6 - 3.3 + 1.3 2.3 7.1 + 2.1 - 0.3 - 7.7 + 2.1 - 2.4 - 4.4 - PRODUCTION ENG L AND 1932 L EATHER II 0 \ _- ---+-- - + - - - t 1-- - - i-A.~ - + - - - - + - ~ :,; "It :.. I 00 ________o - - + - - + - - - - t 1 - -- -t---.--+----+-----t ~ i ... s-:,0 -~ ") 70 llj ~ .... () .._ 60 e.08001'S & ~ I., ~ 40 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis • I f §"' ~ 600f - - ---+-----,f------ft-- -t-i-\-r-l--t-"-----'--'---W.,--------tt-- t - ----1 6 March 1, MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON In January, 1939, as compared with January, 1938, the number of wage-earners employed was 5.5 per cent larger and the amount paid in wages was 11 .4 per cent higher. The changes in many of the leading industrial cities in Massachusetts in employment and payrolls between December, 1938, and January, 1939, were: LEADING INDUSTRIAL CITIES Boston ... . .. ............ . Brockton ..... . ........... . Cambridge ............. . . Fall River ..... ... . . .... . . Fitchburg ....... . ........ . Haverhill . . .. . ....... .... . Holyoke .............. . .. . Lawrence . . .... . ......... . Lowell . ........ .......... . Lynn .. ...... . . ... .. .. . . . . New Bedford ... .. ........ . Peabody ...... . . . ........ . Springfield .... ... . ....... . Worcester .. .. ...... . ..... . Number of Establishments 352 44 93 29 44 52 34 38 50 74 34 22 58 110 Number of WageEarners - 6.6% +15.l - 1.1 - 1.3 - 0.6 + 8.3 1.2 - 2.3 + 1.9 - 2.9 + 3.4 Amount of Payrolls - 6.1% +32.0 - 5.0 - 2.9 + 1.0 +24.8 + - + + - - 1.6 - 2.5 5.3 3.2 0.8 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.3 According to the State (R . I.) Department of Labor, employment in Rhode Island firms declined 1.3 per cent from 72,125 wage-earners in December to 71,178 in January. This was the first report since last June showing a downward trend, although employment was 19.6 per cent ahead of J anuary a year ago. An aggregate weekly payroll for the same firms also fell off. A reduction of 2. 1 per cent from $1,559,917 in December, 1938, to $1,527,081 in January was distributed in most lines, but was 20.5 per cent above the total of $1,266,770 for January, 1938. Considerable advances in employment in most lines were noted in a comparison with the figures for January, 1938. The most significant gains were registered in the textile industry. Worsted employment was 50.0 per cent higher than a year ago. Cotton and :finishing plants hired over 28 per cent more workers. Silks were up 17.5 per cent, but the number of woolen workers remained about the same. The heading "All Textiles", an aggregate of employment in 143 plants, revealed a rise of 32.1 per cent in wage-earners. Jewelry firms hired 7. 9 per cent more than a year ago and rubber employment was FURS *EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIES - J ewelry . ...... . ... ..... . Metal Trades ..... .. ... . . All Textiles . ....... ..... . Cottons ............ . . . Silks . ....... ........ . . Woolens ..... . ........ . Worsteds ............. . Finishing ... ......... . . Rubber Goods . . ... . .... . Miscellaneous .... .. ..... . Total Manufactures . . . . 71,178 59,498 + 19.6% CONSTRUCTION Building .. .. . ...... . . R oad, Bridge ..... .. . . 511 384 250 101 +204.4% +380.2 1. 2. Total Construction . . . . . 895 351 *Based on figures for week ending January 21, 1939. ___ MONTHLY 200 -12 COMMERCIAL FAILURES - NEW ENGLAND (In Thousands of Dollars) Source: Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Number Liabilities 1937 $ 620 87 January ........ . ...... . . ... . ,. 1,972 65 February ..................... . 837 81 March . ........ . ............. . 1,685 72 April. ............. . .......... . 822 86 May . . . .. ............ ... ..... . 889 66 June . .............. . .... .... . . 1,977 60 July .......................... . 1,129 72 August ... . .. . ................ . 432 42 September ..... . .... .... . .. . .. . 654 October .... . . . .... ....... . ... . 60 1,242 71 November .... . ............... . 2,218 December .. .. ... .. .. . . . . ..... . 103 Year ... . ..... . . . . .... .. . . .... . 1938 January .. ... . . ... . ....... . . . . . February ... ...... ... ..... ... . . March . . . ... . ... ..... . .. ..... . April. . .. .. ... . . . ... ..... ..... . May ......................... . June ............. . ... . .. ..... . July ......................... . August ... .... .. ............. . . September . . .......... . .. ... .. . October ...................... . November . . . . . . .............. . December ... . .... ... . . ... . ... . 865 $14,477 141 105 100 112 111 111 98 81 85 77 86 $ 4,026 2,008 1,890 1,639 1,262 1,042 1,200 1,806 993 1,036 1,067 1,332 Year ......................... . 1939 January ...... . . . . . ........... . 1,192 $19,301 100 $ 1,211 i... 175 1 FURNITURE I INDEX 1IJ 11 I -, ~ ,so: ::f: : "I ~ ~ a. ~ !lI 125: 11, I I 11: I 1 111 •z 100 75 '4,. , I ,1 I I 11 I I I 111 I I I I : ! ~~r'-:~:: ::;: ~ I I : t 1 II I •l f"t~' , I I : ~. " : 1 :1 :: I~ , ... l , ,, ). ::, ,::· ::: :::, ::n ::: I JI :111 ::, ~11 :,.. :~ 1:, 1 1:! ', I :~ ; ~ \, ~ ~: 25 I I ",, ~I ~ \: I t \~If: \ I V \I t I \ I \ f : I I I 1•1 125 ~ 100 -": I ~ I ,, ,, ,, ,, I :,, I 75 I I I \ ! I\ ,, ~: I :,1, ' 1 1 1 11 ,1: I I 0 l ,, ,,1\ I i I I t\ I I I I I I ' \ I I j I I :y ~ :'~ ~ 11 I ~ ~ ,, --- MONTHLY INDEX - 1 2 MOS. MOV. AVE. I '1 ,,,, ~ '1 ,, I :1 I ,\ ,, ,, I I \.1 \: \) \l '.: \: I ,,,, ,, ~~ ~\ 11 f I 1 ,~\ I 1 1 I~ I ,,1, i; ,, II t!-.lw- !: \: :: ~ : ~ : 0 ~-~~~~-~~•__,__\._,_'__,__'_,_ ,! ---'--',_1--1..._1,__ ) ---'----'IJ,,___L____,J https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis t 11: Ill ,t ~ ~ . ;__:; ', 1 C : : \ : , ; ~~.} .J.i...~;': 1: ' -LL :~ ._ 5of-i,-j-jl-l.-;-J+-::--:+~ ~ .,..i,q~:q---:..-J..l---:..---J.l.~""tle~ ---l----l (.J II 11 ,,,, " fl 1'::: 1 l ,, !' i SALES I I,, I MOS. MOV. AVE.---+---+--+----+----+----1 I ~ I- 85 BOSTON DEPARTMENT STORES MONTHLY INDEX ANO 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE 250 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 AVERAGE :,., 't +255.0% Commercial Failures :- In 1938 the number of commercial failures in New England was 1,192, as compared with 865 for the year 1937: 2251929 1930 11931, 1932 , 1933 ,1 934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 ~ :!; RHODE ISLAND P er Cent Change Number Employed from January January January 1939 1938 1938 5,152 4,774 + 7.9% 3.4 9,576 9,909 43,663 33,051 + 32.1 17,676 13,791 + 28.2 1,816 1,545 + 17.5 2,551 2,535 + 0.6 14,757 9,837 + 50.0 6,863 5,343 + 28.4 4,092 3,616 + 13.2 8,695 8,148 + 6.7 INDUSTRY SALES BOSTON DEPARTMENT STORES INDEX AND 12 MONTHS MOVING MONTHLY up 13.2 per cent. The only loss, 3.4 per cent m metals, had little effect on total employment. I I ,1• ,,,, ' II II ,1 '1 1,1 ~·::,, I, ~ I ~~ ~ I ~ ,'1 1, ' 1939 7 MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON RETAIL TRADE The sales volume of reporting department stores and apparel shops in New England during January was 1.8 per cent less than in January, 1938, although there were increases of 7.9 per cent in ew Hampshire stores and 2.1 per cent in Rhode I sland stores. Decreases in the other four ew England states ranged from 2.1 per cent in Massachusetts stores to 6.6 per cent in Connecticut stores. The percentage of regular charge accounts outstanding at the first of January, which was collected during January, at 48.8 in New England stores, was lower than in January of the preceding three years. In Boston stores the collection ratio decreased from 50.8 in 1938 to 49. 7 in 1939, in ew Haven it increased from 47 .3 to 47.6, and in Providence it increased from 45.9 to 46.0. At the end of January, 1939, inventories in Boston department stores and apparel shops were 2.6 per cent lower in the aggregate than at the end of January, 1938, and inventories in stores in other New England cities were 6.3 per cent smaller. During the week endfog February 25, 1939, sales of Boston department stores were 7.5 per cent larger than during the week ending February 26, last year, and during the period February 1- 25, this year, sales in Boston department stores were 2.4 per cent higher than in the period February 1- 25, 1938. The 1939 period contained four Saturdays, as compared with three Saturdays in the period last year. SALES CONDITIONS 1938 = 100 Month of January Connecticut Department Stores .................... . ...... . .................. . Maine Department Stores ..................... . .. . . . .. . .. .. ...... . .......... . Massachu etts Department Stores . .. ........ . ................ . ... .. .......... . New Hampshire Department Stores ................... . ....... . ... . .. . . ..... . . Rhode Island Department Stores . .. ........ . ......... . .... . .............. . . . . . Vermont Department Stores ... .. . .. .. ... .. ............................. . ... . . Boston Department Stores ...... . ... . .. . .................... . ............... . ew Haven Department Stores ........... . .... .. ..... . ...................... . Providence Department Stores . ... ......... . ..... .. .... .. ................. . . . . New England Department Stores . ... . ........ . .... . .. .. .. . . .. .. . .. . . . .. . .... . 1936 87 95 94 100 105 98 94 91 105 95 1937 100 108 104 110 118 109 103 101 118 105 CREDIT CONDITIONS Percentage of Regular Charge Accounts Outstanding at the First of January Collected during January Boston Department Stores ............................ . .. . . ew Haven Department Stores ............ . ...... . ... . . . .. . Providence Department Stores . . ........ . ...... . ........ . .. . New England Department Stores .. ..... .. ..... . ........... . SALES BY DEPARTME T - 1936 51.4% 51.9 46 .9 50.2 1937 50.1 % 50 .0 47 .4 49 .5 EWE GLA D DEPARTMENT 1938 = 100 Silk and Velvet Dress Goods ... . .. . ........ ... .......... .. ....... .. .. . ..... . . Woolen Dress Goods . .... ..... . .................. ... ........... ... ..... . ... . Cotton Dress Goods ....... . .... . ...... . .......... . .. .. .. . ...... . ........... . Jewelry ............... . ............................. . .. .. .. .. ............. . Men's Clot hing ......................... . ....... . ................ . ..... . ... . Men's Furnishings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... . .. . .. . Boys' Wear . . . . ...... .. .................... . . . . . ........... . ......... . .... . Women's, Misses', and Juniors' Ready-to-Wear ... . .. .... ..... . ............... . . Women's, Misses', and Juniors' Accessories ..... . ..... . .... . .. . . . .............. . Millinery . . . . . . . . . ......... .. ..... . .. . ..... . .... . .. .. ....... . .. . Women's and Children's Gloves ... .. . ...... . .. . . . ..... . . . ...... . ... ... .. .... . . Corsets and Brassieres . ..................... . .. .. . . ...... . ..... .. ... . ... . . . . . Women's and Children's Hosiery . ....... . ...... . .. . . . .. . . . .......... . .... .. . . . Knit nderwear, including Glove Silk .... . .... . ... . .... . . . ....... : ... . ....... . Silk and 1uslin nderwear . . . . . . ...... . ...... . ...... ... . . ................. . . Women's and Children's Shoes ............ . .. . .... . .... ... .. . .. . .... . ..... . .. . Furniture . .. ...... . .............. . ....... . .. . ... . ..... . .......... .. . .... .. . https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1936 113 102 107 83 103 104 96 91 99 103 99 94 93 106 112 102 93 1938 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1938 50 .8% 47.3 45 .9 49 .5 1939 94 96 97 108 102 97 96 92 102 97 1939 49 .7% 47 .6 46 .0 48 .8 TORES Month of January 1937 125 106 106 105 105 103 109 105 105 112 106 103 98 95 110 110 123 1938 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1939 86 86 85 109 93 97 92 92 98 102 91 100 102 93 88 100 104 8 MONTHLY REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON March 1, 1939 SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES Industrial production increased less than seasonally in January and the fir5t three weeks of February, following a rapid advance in the latter half of 1938. Wholesale commodity prices continued to show little change. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNITED ••o 1935 193A S TATE S 1936 193 7 1939 1938 130 ... ~ 120 I~ ~ r .r I~ ~ 100 l'; ._ 110 e,. eo /\ I ' "VI I V 70 v "' f \ V ~ 60 \ "'- V - FACTORY EMPLOYMENT UNITED 120 193 4 1935 !STATES 193& ••ae 193 1 193 9 110 ~ t 100 ; 90 z ~ ~ 80 ~ 70 . 60 rv V A ✓ _/ . Jr\, i IV - -. Production:-In January volume of industrial production, as measured by the Board's seasonally adjusted index, was at 101 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, as compared with 104 in December. At steel mills, where activity usually increases considerably at this season, output in January and the first three weeks of February was at about the same rate as in December. Automobile production declined seasonally in the first tw~ months of the year as retail sales showed about the usual decrease and dealers' stocks reached adequate levels. Output of cement declined in January, and there was also some reduction in output of lumber and plate glass. In the nondurable goods industries, where production had been at a high level in December, activity increased less than seasonally. Increases at cotton, silk, and tobacco factories were smaller than usual and at woolen mills there was a decline. Shoe production and sugar refining continued in substantial volume, and activity at meat-packing establishments showed little change, following a decline in December. Mineral production increased somewhat in January, reflecting an increase in output of crude petroleum. Value of construction contracts awarded declined in January, according to F. W. Dodge Corporation figures , owing principally to a reduction in awards for publicly-financed projects, which had been in large volume in December. Contracts for privately-financed residential building continued at the recent advanced level, while awards for private non-residential building remained in small volume. Employment:- Factory employment and payrolls showed between the middle of December and the middle of January. industries, as well as in the total, changes in the number of approximately seasonal proportions. In trade, employment more than is usual after Christmas. the usual decline In most individual employees were of declined somewhat MEMBER BANK RESERVES ANO RELATED ITEMS Distribution:- Sales at department and variety stores and by mail order houses showed the usual sharp seasonal decline from December to January. In the first two weeks of February department store sales continued at the January level. Volume of freight carloadings in January and the first half of February was at about the same rate as in December. Commodity Prices:- Wholesale commodity prices generally continued to show little change in January and the first three weeks of February. Grain prices declined somewhat, following a rise in December, while prices of hogs increased seasonally. Changes in prices of industrial materials were small. MONEY RATES NEW YORK https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bank Credit:- Excess reserves of member banks, which reached a record high level of $3,600,000,000 on January 25, declined somewhat in February. This decline resulted chiefly from a temporary increase in Treasury balances with the Reserve banks representing cash receipts from the sale o'f the new United States Housing Authority and Reconstruction Finance Corporation notes. Purchases of these notes were· also responsible for an increase in total loans and investments of reporting member banks in 10i leading cities, following a decline during January. Money Rates:- Average yields on United States Government securities declined further during the first three weeks of February to about the lowest levels ever reached. New issues of 91 -day Treasury bills, after selling at par or at a slight premium in late December and early January, were again on a slight discount basis during February. Other open-market rates continued unchanged.
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