The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS been passed. A period of hesitancy developed pending further concrete developments in such strategic matters as foreign aid, national defense, tax reduction, and the third round of wage increases. Some of these uncertainties were being resolved towards the end of the first quarter and resulted in firmer wholesale prices in March, as well as in a renewed upturn in other economic indicators. The shifts which occurred in the components of production and income from the fourth to the first quarter throw light on the manner in which temporary stability was being maintained. The demand for fixed domestic capital investment, which includes construction and producers' durable equipment, had about the same intensity as in previous quarters. Changes were apparent, however, in other markets for the national product. Total consumer expenditures registered the smallest quarterly increase since the end of the war, confirming qualitative information indicating a flattening in consumer demand. The sharp drop in foreign purchases of American output from the extraordinarily high levels maintained throughout 1947 constituted another important change in the basic demand situation. Partly offsetting the contraction of foreign purchases, there was a widening flow of foreign aid, largely under the interim-aid program, which was reflected in increased Federal Government purchases of goods and services. Also there occurred a large increase in the accumulation of nonfarm business inventories over the rates which had obtained in the second half of 1947. There is evidence, cited below, that this accumulation was, in'part at least, unintended and occurred as a temporary result of slackening in other purchases. Under the offsetting influence of these demand factors, the major components of the income flow showed" little Table 2.—National Income and Product, Fourth Quarter 1947 and First Quarter 1948 * [Billions of dollars] Unadjusted Item Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates 1947 1948 1947 1948 IV 2 I IV 2 I 54.1 33.7 32.5 27.9 1.0 3.6 1.2 12.9 6.3 4.6 1.9 6.6 8.1 3.2 4.9 -1.5 1.0 (3) 33.3 31.9 27.4 1.0 3.6 1.3 13.1 6.4 4.8 1.9 (3) 134.6 129.5 111.9 3.8 13.8 5.1 52.6 25.5 19.3 7.8 (33) (3) () (3) -5.9 3.8 NATIONAL INCOME BY DISTRIBUTIVE SHARES National income Compensation of employees __ . _ Wages and salaries _ Private Military. _ _ Government, civilian _ __ Supplements to wages and salaries Proprietors' and rental income * Business and professional _ _Farm __ __ Rental income of persons _ Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment. _ Corporate profits before tax _ _ Corporate profits tax liability.. Corporate profits after tax __ Inventory valuation adjustment _ Net interest Addendum: Compensation of general Government employees 1.0 214.3 132.9 127.8 110.3 3.8 13.7 5.1 51.5 25.4 18.5 7.6 26.1 32.2 12.6 19.7 -6.1 3.8 4.3 4.2 16.4 16.3 62.7 45.8 6.1 28.0 11.8 7.1 3.2 1.6 1.5 4.8 — 8 -!4 2.0 7.7 4.4 .2 3.4 59.8 41.4 4.7 24.7 12.0 9.6 2.7 1.3 1.4 4.8 2.2 2.3 1.0 7.7 4.7 .3 3.3 240.9 244.3 8 8 -1.5 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product ... - _ _ Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods __.. ._ Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment New construction Residential nonfarm Other Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories, total Nonfarm only Net foreign investment Government purchases of goods and services Federal Less' Government sales _ State and local ., See footnotes at end of table. _ _ __ - - - 172.5 21.3 104.2 47.0 29.9 12.4 6.3 6.1 18.8 -1.3 .6 8.2 30.3 17.7 .8 13.3 173.2 20.7 104.3 48.2 36.0 13.1 6.6 6.5 18.8 4.1 4.8 4.2 31.0 19.0 1.3 13.3 May 1948 Table 2.—National Income and Product, Fourth Quarter 1947 and First Quarter 1948 x—Continued [Billions of dollars] Item Unadjus ted Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates 1947 1948 1947 1948 IV 2 I IV 2 I 52.5 4.2 3.8 .4 48.3 45.8 2.4 51.6 9.2 8.6 .6 42.4 41.4 1.0 205.8 209.2 62.7 3.2 4.9 .1 .3 59.8 3.2 4.6 .1 3 () 240.9 244.3 -.1 54.1 -.1 (3) —.2 214.3 -.4 (3) 6.6 1.2 .0 2.7 1.1 2.2 .1 52.5 (3) 1.4 .0 2.8 1.1 1.7 .1 51.6 26.1 5.2 .0 10.5 4.4 7.3 .5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income ._ _ _ Less : Personal tax and nontax payments Federal State and local Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving RELATION __ _- 22.1 20.2 1.9 183. 7 172.5 11.2 23.0 21.1 2.0 186.1 173.2 12.9 OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, NATIONAL INCOME, AND PERSONAL INCOME Gross national product Less: Capital consumption allowances _ . Indirect business tax and nontax liability Business transfer payments Statistical discrepancy . Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Equals: National income Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment --. - -_ Contributions for social insurance Excess of wage accruals over disbursements Plus: Government transfer payments Net interest paid by government .. ._ _ . - _ . Dividends Business transfer payments Equals: Personal income 12.7 19.1 .5 -5.9 205.8 12.7 18.7 .5 3 () (3) ~o. *3 .0 10.9 4.5 7.5 .5 209.2 1 2 Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Data for the fourth quarter of 1947 are the same as those in the February issue of the SURVEY with the exception that an actual estimate of fourth quarter corporate profits has been substituted for the arbitrary figure previously aasumed. Revisions of the national income and product estimates for 1947 to incorporate recent information will be made in the July issue of the SURVEY. It should be noted that in the interim national product data w ill not agree fully with revised information already published for certain components of national product, notably new private construction and net foreign investment. 34 Not available. Includes noncorporate inventory-valuation adjustment. Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics. change. The drop in farm prices, the only development significantly affecting incomes, was not fully reflected in farm income for the first quarter, which includes the month of January, when prices received by farmers were at an all-time peak. Developments in the major components of the product arid income flow are reviewed briefly below. 1. Personal consumption expenditures were at an annual rate of 173 billion dollars in the first quarter of 1948. As already noted, the less than 1 billion increase from the fourth quarter was the smallest since the end of the war and reflected a small price increase rather than volume. On an over-all basis, the high rate of consumer spending characteristic of the postwar period was maintained, but there was a noticeable easing of inflationary pressures. 2. Private domestic capital formation, which includes new construction, the purchase of producers7 durable equipment, and the net change in.business inventories, rose to 36 billion dollars in the first quarter. In spite of an unusually severe winter, private construction (both residential and nonresidential) continued to advance on a seasonally adjusted basis. The heavy demand for auxiliary commercial construction created by the high rate of residential building in the past 2 years and deferred needs was clearly evident in nonresidential construction activity. Purchases of producers' durable equipment likewise showed little change from the quarters reviewed in previous issues of the SURVEY. Expenditures for these items continued at the extraordinarily high annual rate of 19 billion dollars to which they had risen in the fourth quarter. Purchases of equipment by certain industries—mainly, transportation and public utilities—were still expanding. However, limitations WlontkL BUSINESS STATISTICS THE:1 DATA here are a continuation of the statistics published in the 1942 Supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. That volume contains monthly data for the years 1938 to 1941, and monthly averages for earlier years back to 1913 insofar as available; it also provides a description of each series and references to sources of monthly figures prior to 1938. Series added or revised since publication of the 1942 Supplement are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a dagger (t), respectively, the accompanying footnote indicating where historical data and a descriptive note may be found. The terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" used to designate index numbers refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Data subsequent to March for selected series will be found in the Weekly Supplement to the Survey. Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1941 and descriptive notes may be found in the 1942 Supplement to the Survey 1948 1947 March April May June July August September October November December January February March GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT* Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates: National income bil of dol Compensation of employees do Wages and salaries do Private do Military do Government civilian do Supplements to wages and salaries do Proprietors' and rental income _ _ . do. _ Business and professional do Farm do Rental income of persons do Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment _ bil. of dol Corporate profits before tax do Corporate profits tax liability do Corporate profits after tax do Inventory valuation adjustment do Net interest _ _ . _ do_ _ 194.6 124.7 119.1 101.2 4.6 13.3 5.6 46.2 22.4 16.8 7.0 199.8 125.6 120.0 102. 7 4.1 13.2 5.6 46.7 22.9 16.6 7.2 203.3 128.7 123.6 106.2 3.9 13.5 5.1 47.0 23.5 16.2 7.3 ••214 3 132.9 127 8 110 3 3.8 13.7 5. 1 51.5 25 4 18.5 7 6 134. 6 129.5 111.9 3.8 13.8 5.1 52.6 25.5 19.3 7.8 20.4 28.9 11.5 17.4 —8.6 3.3 23.9 27.8 10.9 16.9 -3.8 3.5 23.9 28.2 11.1 17.1 —4.3 3.7 26.1 32 2 12.6 19 7 —6 1 3.8 -5.9 3.8 Gross national product do Personal consumption expenditures do Durable goods do Nondurable goods ._ ._ . do Services do Gross private domestic investment do New construction do Producers' durable equipment do Change in business inventories do Net foreign investment do Government purchases of goods and services bil of dol Federal (less Government sales) do State and local do 221.0 156.9 18.2 94.7 44.0 28.2 10.3 16.4 1.6 8.3 226.9 162.3 19.3 98.4 44.6 26.1 9.6 17.9 —1.4 10.4 229.4 165.8 20.2 99.9 45.7 27.0 10.4 18.4 — 1.7 7.8 240 9 172.5 21 3 104 2 47 0 29.9 12 4 18 8 —1 3 8.2 244.3 173.2 20.7 104.3 48.2 36.0 13.1 18.8 4.1 4.2 27.6 16.2 11.4 28.2 16.3 11.9 28.7 16.2 12.5 30 3 16.9 13 3 31.0 17.7 13.3 Personal income. _ do Less: Personal tax and nontax payments do Equals: Disposable personal income do Personal savings § do PERSONAL INCOME* Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates: Total personal income bil. of dol Wage and salary receipts, total do Total employer disbursements . „ _. do _ Commodity-producing industries do Distributive industries do Service industries do Government do Less employee contributions for social insurance bil. of doL. Other labor income _ do Proprietors' and rental income . do Personal interest income and dividends. . do Total transfer payments __ do 189.8 21.0 168.8 11.9 191.' 4 21.2 170.1 7.8 199.6 21.6 177.9 12.1 205 8 22.1 183 7 11 2 209.2 23.0 186.1 12.9 190.6 117.0 119.1 53.4 33.5 14.6 17.6 189.4 116.0 118.2 52.8 33.1 14.8 17.5 190.5 117.3 119.4 53.5 33.8 14.9 17.2 194.1 120.1 122.2 54.9 34.9 15.2 17.2 194.9 119.9 122.0 54.4 35.0 15.4 17.2 193.8 121.2 123.3 55.5 35.2 15.2 17.4 209.9 123.2 125.2 56.7 35.8 15.2 17.5 203.2 123.7 125.7 57.2 35.8 15.1 17.6 204.2 126.4 128.4 58.8 36.8 15.2 17.6 210.4 128.1 130.1 60.3 37.1 15.2 17.5 211.4 128.2 130.3 60.1 37.4 15.4 17.4 2.1 1.7 46.8 14.2 10.9 2.2 1.7 46.5 14.3 10.9 2.1 1.8 46.5 14.4 10.5 2.1 1.8 47.1 14.6 10.5 2.1 1.8 47.4 14.7 11.1 2.1 1.8 45.5 14.9 10.4 2.0 1.8 48.1 15.6 21.2 2.0 1.9 50.4 15.4 11.8 2.0 1.9 49.9 15.5 10.5 2.0 1.9 54.0 15.6 10.8 2.1 1.9 54.5 15.7 11.1 '207.7 '129.2 ' 58. 3 '37.7 '15.5 ' 17. 7 208.5 127.1 129.2 58.2 37.7 15.5 17.8 2.1 1.9 ' 51. 6 15.8 '11.3 2.1 1.8 51.5 16.0 12.1 r 127.1 172.4 173.0 ' 184. 1 168.8 169.7 188.7 173.8 168.3 184.8 Total nonagricultural income do 180.6 182.3 184.6 185.6 NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES* 3,940 3,160 4,960 All industries, total _ _ ._ _ _ mil. of dol 4,140 4,480 450 Electric and gas utilities. _ . do. _ 330 620 500 510 2,010 Manufacturing and mining do 1,600 2,500 2,050 2,140 220 Railroad _ _ do 160 310 230 340 1,260 1,080 1,530 Commercial and miscellaneous. do. __ 1,360 1,500 FARM INCOME AND MARKETINGS Cash farm income, total, including Government 2,211 2,662 2,076 1,974 2,026 2,581 1,866 3,060 payments* _ . _ mil. of dol. 2,517 2,927 3,773 3,109 2,185 1,914 1,989 2, 505 2,657 2,909 2,555 From marketings and C. C. C. loans* _ _ do. . 2,010 1,837 3,049 3,096 3,759 1,961 ' 743 621 1,205 692 594 1,044 717 1,187 Crops* do 1,299 1,497 2,122 698 1,540 1,442 1,452 1,318 1,368 1,318 Livestock and products* ..do . 1,320 1,610 • 1, 511 1,120 1,556 1,552 1,637 1,263 392 382 345 379 353 Dairy products* do 345 329 303 318 293 334 373 319 782 705 785 Meat animals* _ _ do. 743 726 711 1,019 968 593 970 958 1,039 645 251 232 234 224 261 Poultry and eggs*. _.do_ __ 236 279 201 206 244 262 280 237 ' Revised. § Personal savings is the excess of disposable income over p ersonal coiisumption expenditur es shown a s a compoilent of gros s national product at>ove. * New series. Quarterly data for 1939-46 and annual data begginning 1929 for nation al income s nd °ross Weitional pro<iuct and nlonthly da1ba for 1929- 46 for perse nal incom<> are publisbed in the "National Income Supplement to Survey of Current Business", ^which is a\ ailable frorn the Supe rintendent of Documejnts, Wash ington, D. C.,for25c ents; these series are c ompiled b^f the U.S. Department of Commerce. For description of the series on plaiat and equ ipment exi>enditures and data f or 1929-45, see p. 24 of the Ma rch 1948 S urvey; firs t quarter of 1948 est" mates are based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. Revisionis for Janu ary 1945-M ay 1946 for• farm inco me are av ailable on request; see note in Septembei- 1947 Sur vey regard ing earlier data; revisions beginning 1945 were in part to adjust the series tolevels indi cated by IS 45 Census data: 1940- 44 data ha ve not bee]a similarly revised. L 7S640f»° — 48- —4 S-: