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NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY PART 1 HEARINGS BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOUSING OF THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND CURRENCY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES NINETY-SECOND CONGRESS SECOND SESSION ON NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY JUNE 6 AN D 7, 1972 Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking and Currency U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 81-745 O WASHINGTON : 1972 COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND CURRENCY WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM A. BARRETT, Pennsylvania LEONOR K. (MRS. JOHN B.) SULLIVAN, Missouri HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin THOMAS L. ASHLEY, Ohio W ILLIAM S. MOORHEAD, Pennsylvania ROBERT G. STEPHENS, Jr., Georgia FERNAND J. ST GERMAIN, Rhode Island HENRY B. GONZALEZ, Texas JOSEPH G. MINISH, New Jersey RICHARD T. HANNA, California TOM S. GETTYS, South Carolina FRANK ANNUNZIO, Illinois THOMAS M. REES, California CHARLES H. GRIFFIN, Mississippi JAMES M. HANLEY, New York FRANK J. BRASCO, New York BILL CHAPPELL, Jr., Florida EDWARD I. KOCH, New York W ILLIAM R. COTTER, Connecticut PARREN J. MITCHELL, Maryland W ILLIAM P. CURLIN, Jr., Kentucky W ILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey FLORENCE P. DWYER, New Jersey ALBERT W. JOHNSON, Pennsylvania J. WILLIAM STANTON, Ohio BENJAMIN B. BLACKBURN, Georgia GARRY BROWN, Michigan LAWRENCE G. WILLIAMS, Pennsylvania CHALMERS P. W YLIE, Ohio MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts PHILIP M. CRANE, Illinois JOHN H. ROUSSELOT, California STEWART B. McKINNEY, Connecticut NORMAN F. LENT, New York BILL ARCHER, Texas BILL FRENZEL, Minnesota P a u l N e l s o n , Clerk and Staff Director C u r t i s A . P r i n s , Chief Investigator B e n e t D. G e l lm a n , Counsel J o s e p h C. L e w i s , Professional Staff Member S t u a r t D. H a l p e r t , Counsel O rm an S. F i n k , Minority Staff Member S u b c o m m it t e e on H o u s in g W ILLIAM A. BARRETT, Pennsylvania, Chairman LEONOR K. (MRS. JOHN B.) SULLIVAN, Missouri THOMAS L. ASHLEY, Ohio WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD, Pennsylvania ROBERT G. STEPHENS, Jr., Georgia FERNAND J. ST GERMAIN, Rhode Island HENRY B. GONZALEZ, Texas HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin JOSEPH G. MINISH, New Jersey WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey FLORENCE P. DWYER, New Jersey GARRY BROWN, Michigan J. WILLIAM STANTON, Ohio BENJAMIN B. BLACKBURN, Georgia MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts G e o r g e G r o s s , Counsel G e r a l d R. M c M u r r a y , Staff Director B e n ja m i n B . M c K e e v e r , Assistant Counsel C a s e y I r e l a n d , Minority Staff Member T e r r e n c e B o y l e , Mi?iority Counsel (II) CONTENTS Hearings held on— June 6, 1972_______________________________________________________________ June 7, 1972_______________________________________________________________ ‘'Report on National Growth 1972,” report of the President’s Domestic Council Committee on National Growth___________________________________ Pa^e 1 433 3 Statements Boley, Robert E., executive director, Urban Land Institute_________________ Davis, Arthur A., vice president for operations of the Conservation Foun dation, Washington, D .C____________________________________________________ Drachman, Roy P., president. Urban Land Institute_______________________ Haga, Thomas H., director-coordinator, Genesee County, Mich., on behalf of the National Association of Counties, accompanied by Donald J. Krapohl, member, Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission__ Krapohl, Donald J., member of the Genesee County Metropolitan Plan ning Commission, Flint, Mich.; supervisor of Mount Morris (Mich.) Township ____________________________________________________________________ Mineta, Hon. Norman Y., mayor, city of San Jose, Calif., on behalf of the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities___________ Iiabinowitz, Alan, professor, University of Washington, Seattle, on behalf of the American Institute of Planners, accompanied by Albert L. Massoni, director of national affairs, American Institute of Planners_____ Rockefeller, John D., I l l , chairman, Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, accompanied by Robert Parke, Jr., and Carol T. F o re m a n _____________________________________________________________________ Rogers, Archibald C., vice president, American Institute of Architects and chairman, A IA National Policy Task Force, accompanied by Van B. Bruner, Jr., A I A ; Jaquelin Robertson, A I A ; W illiam L. Slayton, honor ary A I A ; and Michael B. Barker, director of urban programs and staff executive to the National Policy Task Force_______________________________ Waranch, Stanley, president, National Association of Home Builders, accompanied by Herbert Colton, general counsel; and Carl A. S. Coan, Jr., staff vice president and legislative counsel____________________________ Walsh, Albert A., president, National Association of Housing and Redevel opment Officials______________________________________________________________ A dditional I nformation Submitted for the 86 475 516 523 104 375 433 487 398 418 R ecord American Institute of Architects: “First Report of the National Policy Task Force,” second edition, report dated May 1972___________________________________________________ Statement on behalf by Archibald C. Rogers, vice president_____________ American Institute of Planners : Position statement on President Nixon’s “Report on Urban Growth 1972” ____________________________________________________________________ Statement on behalf by Prof. Alan Rabinowitz, University of W ash ington, Seattle__________________________________________________________ Bain, L. Dixon, Jr., urban affairs consultant, Cambridge, Mass., statement entitled, “New Communities From Old Commerce” _______________________ Conservation Foundation, Washington, D.C., statement on behalf by Arthur A. Davis, vice president for operations_____________________________________ Davis, Arthur A., prepared statement________________________________________ Gappert, Gary, economist, Urban Affairs Department, University of W is consin— Milwaukee, statement with attachments entitled, “Ten Proposi tions for National Growth Reporting and Urban Policy” ________________ Haga, Thomas H., prepared statement-----------------------------------------------------------Keith, Nathaniel S., president, National Housing Conference, statem ent-Krapohl, Donald J . : Letter from Hon. George Romney, Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development, on sections 235 and 236 housing programs in Beecher School District, Flint, Mich., dated May 25, 1971_________ Supplemental statement__________________________________________________ (in ) 478 491 487 385 375 550 86 92 542 520 538 537 536 IV Mineta, Hon. Norman Y . : Page “Alternative Growth Strategies for San Jose: Initial Report of the Rand Urban Policy Analysis Project,” document prepared for the National Science Foundation, dated October 1971____________________ 151 Rand Urban Policy Program : Strategy for Selection of Cities,” docu ment prepared for the National Science Foundation, dated Octo ber 1971_________________________________________________________________ 269 “Urban Development Policies,” city of San Jose, Calif., document adopted by city council October 19, 1970, and revised April 10, 1972 _____________________________________________________________________ 117 Submission of m ap s: Incorporated area, city of San Jose (Calif.) April 1972, growth in square miles, 1910-72________________________________________ 106,107 109 Incorporated areas of Santa Clara County, January 1969_________ National Association of Counties, statement on behalf by Thomas H. Haga, director-coordinator, Genesee County (Mich.) Metropolitan Planning Commission ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------520 National Association of Home Builders: Statement of Policy for 1972_____________________________________________ 403 Statement on behalf by Stanley Waranch, president____________________ 405 National Association of Housing & Redevelopment Officials : Program Policy Resolution— 1971-73____________________________________ 426 Statement on behalf by Albert A. Walsh, president_____________________ 418 Rabinowitz, Prof. A la n : Position statement of the American Institute of Planners on President Nixon’s “Report on Urban Growth 1972” _____________________________ 385 Prepared statement________________________________________________________ 380 Rockefeller, John D., I l l , excerpts from the report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future_____________________________ 436 Urban Land Institute, statements on behalf by : Robert E. Boley, executive director______________________________________ 478 Roy P. Drachman, president______________________________________________ 475 U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities, statement on behalf by Hon. Norman Y. Mineta, mayor, city of San Jose, Calif________ 104 Walsh, Albert A., prepared statement with attached section from N AH RO Program Policy Resolution— 1971-73, dealing with urban growth and developm ent---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------423 Waranch, Stanley, submission of the National Association of Home Build ers “ Statement of Policy 1972” _____________________________________________ 403 Ybarra, Jack, president, Confederacion de la Raza, San Jose, Calif., state ment __________________________________________________________________________ 539 M aps Incorporated area, city of San Jose, Calif., April 1972, growth in square miles 1910-72______________________________________________________________ 106,107 Incorporated areas of Santa Clara County, Calif., January 1969___________ 109 (1) NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY TU E SD A Y , JU N E 6, 1972 H ou se of R e p r e s e n t a t iv e s , S u b c o m m it t e e o n H o u s in g of t h e C o m m it t e e o n B a n k in g a n d C u r r e n c y , , 'Washington D.C. The subcommittee met at 10:20 a.m., in room 2128, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. William A. Barrett (chairman of the subcom mittee) , presiding. Present: Representatives Barrett, Sullivan, Ashley, Stephens, St Germain, Gonzalez, Minish, Widnall, Brown, and Heckler. Mr. B a r r e t t . The hearing will come to order please. Before turning these hearings over to Congressman Ashley, I would like to emphasize the importance I attach to the development of a na tional growth policy for the country. Many of you who have followed past housing and urban develop ment legislation realize that, often, provisions which are adopted without much fanfare prove to be the most important in the long run. I think this will prove to be the case with the national urban growth policy provisions of the 1970 Housing Act. All in all, there was very little debate in 1970 over the need for these provisions. And, because other more urgent provisions of that act attracted most of the attention, the importance of these growth policy provisions has not been adequately recognized. In title VII, the Congress asked the President to submit an urban growth report every 2 years, spelling out his recommendations for the development and carrying out of a national growth policy. We asked him to recommend ways in which the physical and social needs of our growing population can be satisfied over the next few decades—that is, where the roads and houses and schools needed to serve our grow ing population should be built, more efficiently and at lower cost and waste to all. During the 19705s, much of the debate in the Congress and the Nation will be focused on these questions, and the quality of life that Americans lead by the turn of the century will depend in great part on how we answer these questions. This hearing is the first of many that will be concerned with the development of an effective national policy. As many of you know, Congressman Thomas L. Ashley is the prin cipal author of the 1970 act provisions. He is an acknowledged expert in this field and I am most happy that he has agreed to undertake these hearings. (1) 2 Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Today the Subcommittee on Housing begins 2 days of hearings on the need for a national growth policy in general, and the President’s “Report 011 National Growth 1972,” in particular. At this point in the record, without objection, there will be sub mitted the President’s “ Report on National Growth 1972,” issued in February of this year. (The report referred to follows:) Report on National Growth 1972 4 To the Congress of the United States: I am pleased to transmit the first biennial Report on National Growth as required by section 703 (a) of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1970. This report was developed by the members and staff of the Domestic Council Committee on National Growth, under the Chairmanship of George Romney, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Their efforts are deeply appreciated. T he W h it e H o u s e . F e b r u a r y 1972. m CONTENTS IN T R O D U C T IO N ............................................................................... Chapter I. POPULATION G R O W TH AND DISTR IB U TIO N . . N ATION AL POPULATION G R O W T H ............................ 1790-1940........................................................................ 1940-1970............................................................................... Births, Deaths, and Immigration...................................... NATION AL POPULATION D ISTR IB U T IO N .................. 1790-1890................................................................................. 1890-1930............................................................................... . 1930-1970................................................................................. Principal Patterns of Migration........................................... Migration Patterns of the Black Population........................ THE POPU LATION SHIFT FR O M R U R A L T O URBAN A R E A S....................................................................................... The Declining Farm Population....................................... Other Factors Influencing Rural-Urban Migration. . . GRO W TH IN M ETRO POLITAN A R EA S....................... Rates of Growth.................................................................. Population Density.............................................................. Location of Largest Population Increase......................... Composition of Central City Population............................ Chapter II. THE CHALLENGE OF BALANCED AND O R DERLY G R O W T H .......................................................................... PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED W ITH G R O W T H ............... The Decline of Rural Areas and Small Towns............. The Changing Role of the Central City........................ Racial and Economic Concentration.............................. Environmental and Transportation Effects..................... Rising Land Costs................................................................... FO RM U LA TIO N OF A SINGLE COMPREHENSIVE NATION AL G R O W TH POLICY: OBSTACLES AND ISSUES............................................................................ •......... Specifying the Goals and Problems of Growth................... Identifying the Link Between the Growth Process and Growth Problems.................... ........................................ Influencing the Many Determinants of Growth................. Determining the Proper Level of Government T o Influence Growth............................................................................. MEETING THE CHALLENGES OF G R O W T H ....... Page vn 1 1 2 3 3 6 6 7 10 10 12 14 14 17 17 18 18 20 22 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 31 V 6 Chapter III. RECENT STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS T O INFLUENCE G R O W T H ............................................................... THE STATE R O L E ...................................................................... Recent Trends in the Involvement of States in the Growth Process.............................................................................. State Departments of Urban Affairs........................ State Housing Finance Agencies............................... State Urban Development Corporation..................... Increased Involvement With Environmental Concerns. New State Land Use Controls.................................. New Communities..................................................... Other Housing Legislation....................................... Increased Financing of Urban Functions.............. Urban Mass Transportation. . .......... Financing Public Education.................................... Modernization of Local Government..................... Interstate Cooperation....................................................... Voluntary Groupings of States.............................. Multistate Compacts.................................................. Federal-Multistate Compacts........................................ Federal-State Commissions for Water and Economic Development................................................................ Federal Corporations Cutting Across State Lines. . Conclusion................................................................. LOCAL GOVERNM ENTS AND NATION AL G R O W T H . Single- or Multi-Purpose Authorities. . ... Counties as Regional Governments................................ Multijurisdictional Councils.............................................. The “ A -95” Review Process................................................. Chapter IV. ADM IN ISTRATION ACTIONS T O DEAL W ITH THE CHALLENGES OF G R O W T H ........................................ PAST FEDERAL IN VO LVEM EN T........................................ AD M INISTRATIVE AND PROG RAM IN ITIATIVES. . Strengthening the Federal System.................................... Rural Development............................................................... Transportation..................................................................... National Environmental Policy Act Implementation. . , Use of Federal Land............................................................. Housing................................................................................. New Community Assistance............................................ Planning Requirements.................................................... A-95 Reviews.. . ................................................................ Federal Property Insurance Programs.................................. Planned Variations................................................................. Annual Arrangements............................................................ Property Tax Reform-......................................................... VI Page 33 33 35 36 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 41 42 42 44 44 44 45 45 47 48 48 49 50 52 53 55 55 56 57 58 58 59 59 60 60 60 61 61 62 63 63 7 Chapter V. AD M IN ISTR ATIO N RECOM M ENDATIONS T O THE CON GRESS............................ LEGISLATIVE IN IT IA T IV E S. . Government Reorganization... Revenue Sharing................ Expanded Rural Credit........................... Planning and Management Assistance. . National Land Use Policy.... Powerplant Siting............................................................... Tax Policy To Conserve Natural and Cultural Values... Welfare Reform . . S U M M A R Y ... page 65 66 66 67 70 71 71 72 73 73 74 VII 8 INTRODUCTION The desirability of establishing a national growth policy for the United States has long been a subject for serious study and de bate. Over the years, contributions to this discussion from the academic community and from private enterprise have been numerous and significant. Earlier in this Administration, a White House report, “ Toward Balanced Growth, Quantity With Qual ity,” spotlighted a wide variety of issues concerning the quest for better growth and development. The debate over national growth policy culminated in 1970 with the passage of title V II of the Housing and Urban Development Act. This act requires that, “ In order to assist in the development of a national urban growth pol icy, the President shall utilize the capacity of his office * * * and of the departments and agencies within the executive branch to collect, analyze, and evaluate such statistics, data, and other information (including demographic, economic, social, land use, environmental, and governmental information) as will enable him to transmit to the Congress during the month of February in every even-numbered year beginning with 1972, a Report on Urban Growth. * * * ” This report has been prepared in response to that act. The stat utory findings and the overall objectives which led to that re quirement suggest, however, that the term “national urban growth policy55 is too narrow. Instead, this report will use the term “ national growth policy,55 recognizing that rural and urban community development are inseparably linked. It is important to realize that urban growth problems cannot be discussed in a useful and intelligent manner without discussing rural growth as well. And it is also important to note that citizens residing in our rural areas are confronted with problems no less pressing and no less deserving of national attention than those of our citizens who are afflicted by what is generally described as “ the urban crisis.55 Another important point of clarification concerns the central purpose of this report. Its aim, as the statute puts it, is to “ assist in the development55 of national policy— not to “ enunciate55 such IX 9 policy. This document makes no claim, therefore, to present a single, comprehensive national growth policy for the United States. It does not presume to reveal some master plan for direct ing the multitude of public and private decisions that determine the patterns of progress in modem America. It represents one element in our search for an adequate growth strategy; in no sense does it represent the end of that search. The longstanding issues concerning the growth of our Nation are much too complex to be resolved in any dogmatic fashion. There are honest and legitimate differences among our people as to how and where such issues should be treated. T o the extent that any single philosophy of national growth emerges from this report, it is a philosophy which is based on a respect for diversity and pluralism. The task of formulating a growth policy which is more than mere rhetoric, a policy that really makes a difference in our na tional life, is an extremely difficult one. Its difficulty , is com pounded because the term “national growth policy”— and even the term “ urban growth policy”— has come to embrace virtually everything we do— privately and publicly— that shapes the fu ture of our society. As a result, a “national growth policy” is often viewed as a panacea for all our social ills. Indeed, when the Congress set forth in section 702(d) of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1970 eight recom mended components of a national growth policy, it described them in terms so broad as to encompass the whole body of our domestic concerns. Numerous other problems have been identi fied as potential targets for a national growth policy, including such general conditions as the destruction of the environment, the inefficient use of resources, inequality in the treatment of various social groups, the inadequate or improper financing of public activities, and inadequate institutional structures for public decisionmaking. The hard, unavoidable fact of the matter, however, is that no single policy, nor even a single coordinated set of policies, can remedy or even significantly ameliorate all of our ills. As our problems are many and varied and changing, so our solutions must be multiple and diversified and flexible. An effective and realistic approach to national growth must also take account of the rich variety of cultures which make x 10 up our country— and of our heritage of freedom in choosing among various styles of life. One important source of our strength as a people has been our unwillingness to trust our destiny to the edicts of any government or the whims of any group. There is no place in our country for any policy which arbitrarily dictates where and how our citizens will live and work and spend their leisure time. Our plans for national growth must rather seek to help individual Americans develop their unique potentials and achieve their personal goals. All of these considerations should not be seen as precluding a new general strategy for national development. W e need such a strategy; we must develop a clear and coherent approach. But as we do so, let us remember that this task is not “ the work of a day.55 Rather it must be the work of a generation. It is not some thing that can be done according to neat blueprints drawn up in advance of action. Rather it must grow out of an ongoing process in which we learn by doing and in which we are always ready to learn something new. This first biennial report on national growth marks the begin ning of a systematic effort to I. Understand the forces that are shaping the communities in which we live and work; II. Articulate some of the challenges that must be confronted as the Nation responds to the challenges of growth; III. Identify recent developments at the State and local level for coping more effectively with growth; IV . Identify major actions of the Federal Government under taken to deal with the problems of growth; and V . Advance recommendations for Federal action to strength en the Nation's ability to deal with the challenges of growth more effectively. Each of these five objectives are addressed in a separate chapter of this report. Recognizing that virtually any item on the Nation's domestic agenda could be construed as a proper subject for this report, the report nevertheless tries to focus on a few critical concerns. It is concerned primarily with the twin objectives of balanced and orderly growth. Meeting these objectives will require stim ulating and channeling private initiative, since progress in this field may depend more on how ongoing investment is directed XI 11 than on generating vast new expenditures. It will also require strengthening the capacity of government at all levels to respond to growth challenges. Many of this Administration’s most impor tant initiatives have been devoted to the achievement of this goal. For it is the conviction of this Administration that public policies for balanced and orderly growth will be no more effective than the mechanisms through which they are shaped and carried out. xn 12 CHAPTER I POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION The 20th century has seen dramatic changes in the location, the occupations, the mobility, and the standard of living of the American people. Understanding these trends is essential to the formulation of sensible policies toward national growth. This chapter therefore focuses on major trends in the growth and dis tribution of our population and on some of the principal social and economic forces that have shaped these patterns. The trends to be examined include • • • • National population growth; National population distribution; The shift from rural to urban areas; and The patterns of growth in metropolitan areas. NATIONAL POPULATION GROWTH During the Nation’s early years, our population grew at a rate of about 3 percent annually. This meant a doubling of the popu lation about every 23 years— from 5.3 million in 1800 to 10.6 million in 1823 to 20.8 million in 1846. So rapid was the rate of increase that our population soon exceeded the population of every European country except Russia. In fact, Malthus, the 19th century economist, used the rate of population increase in the United States to buttress his claim that expanding populations would inevitably outrun the supply of food. Had the rate of increase been maintained until today, the population of the United States would now be about 900 million. The growth rate began to decline, however, and, except for the years following World W ar II, it has fallen steadily since the Civil War. 13 J 790-1940 The declining population growth rate can be appreciated most readily by comparing the population changes occurring between each decennial census, as shown in table 1. Between 1790 and 1860, each census found the population to be about one-third larger than it had been at the time of the previous census. Table 1 U.S. POPULATION AT EACH CENSUS, 1790-1970 (In Thousands) Year1 Population 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 3,929 5,309 7,239 9,639 12,866 17,069 23,192 31,443 39,818 50,156 62,948 75,995 91,972 105,711 122,775 131,669 151,326 179,323 203,185 " Increase over previous census Number Percentage2 _ _ 1,379 1,931 2,399 3,228 4,203 6,122 8,251 8,375 10,337 12,792 13,047 15,978 13,738 17,064 8,894 19,161 27,997 23,862 35 36 33 34 33 36 36 27 26 26 21 21 15 16 7 15 19 13 >*• 1Excludes Alaska and Hawaii prior to 1950. o Percentages are calculated from figures in greater detail. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. L A Population increased by only one-fourth in the Civil W ar decade between 1860 and 1870, and continued to grow at about the same rate in each of the two succeeding decades. After 1890, the growth rate fell once again. In each of the two decades between 1890 and 1910, population increased by 8 1 -7 4 5 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 2 14 approximately one-fifth. Since 1910, decennial growth rates have fluctuated between 14.9 percent (19 10-2 0) and 18.5 percent (1 9 5 0 -6 0 ), except during the depression years. The decade be tween 1930 and 1940 witnessed the lowest rate of population growth of any period in the Nation’s history— 7.2 percent. 1940-1970 Population growth recovered rapidly in the 1940’s (14.5 per cent) and even faster in the 1950’s (18.5 percent), largely as a consequence of the postwar baby boom. Between 1960 and 1970, the overall growth rate fell back to 13.3 percent due to a decline in the birth rate. Lower birth rates in the 1960’s can, in part, be attributed to the record low number of births in the 1930’s. A declining rate of population increase does not necessarily mean that the annual increment to the population also declines. Indeed, although the growth rate for the 1960’s (13.3 percent) was the second lowest of any decade in our history, the absolute increase in population (23.9 million) was the second largest of any decade. Even if growth slows to as little as 10 percent during the 1970’s, the population will rise by over 20 million, an absolute increase greater than in any 10-year period before 1950. Births, Deaths, and Immigration Three factors interact to determine the rate of population in crease : the birth rate, the death rate, and the rate of immigration. The difference between the birth rate and death rate is the “ natural” rate of population increase— that rate which would be sustained in the absence of immigration. The steady decline of the overall population growth rate over most of the Nation’s history has been the product of declines in birth and immigration rates that have more than offset declines in death rates. In 1800, there were an estimated 55 births for every 1,000 people in the United States. Thereafter, the birth rate fell almost without interruption until World W ar II, reaching a low of 18 per 1,000 people in the m id-1930’s. The birth rate began to rise, with the return of prosperity, reaching a level of about 25 per 1,000 in 1948, where it remained until the late 1950’s. Since then it has declined again to even 3 15 Table 2 CRUDE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES: 1800-1970 r— Year Crude birth rate—(live births per 1,000 population) Crude death rate—(deaths per 1,000 population)1 Total 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1930 1935 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 19522 19542 19562 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 19713 Total _ 55.2 51.8 44.3 39.8 32.3 27.7 21.3 18.7 18.4 19.2 19.4 22.2 21.2 24.1 24.9 24.1 25.1 25.3 25.2 24.5 23.7 22.4 21.0 18.4 17.5 18.2 17.4 Natural increase—(births less) deaths/per 1,000 population) Black and Total White other races _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.51 1.47 1.00 .78 .68 .86 .86 1.19 1.06 1.41 1.50 1.45 1.55 1.61 1.58 1.50 1.42 1.29 1.16 .89 .78 .88 .81 1.31 1.43 .98 .73 .65 .81 .82 1.14 1.01 1.38 1.43 1.35 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.39 1.32 1.20 1.06 .79 .70 NA NA - 17.2 13.0 11.3 10.9 11.6 10.6 10.8 10.3 10.6 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.4 9.3 _ 1.73 1.12 1.15 .97 1.23 1.29 1.50 1.50 1.73 2.10 2.21 2.26 2.48 2.53 2.40 2.20 2.07 1.94 1.64 1.43 NA NA Excludes fetal deaths. 2 Birth rates based on 50 percent sample. 3First 11 months. NA = Not available. Source: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. V ,,- ............................ - „ „..... ...... ... „ ■ / lower levels than were recorded during the depression, down to an estimated 17.4 per 1,000 in 1971 / 1 The long-term decline in the birth rate is associated with the shift in population from rural to urban areas. Birth rates have always been higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In 1800, the number of children under age 5 for every 1,000 women aged 20-44 (a commonly used measure of fertility) was over 1,300 in rural areas and about 850 in the urban areas. When the population of the United States was primarily rural, the fertility rate for the Nation as a whole closely approximated that of rural areas; but as the Nation has become more urbanized, the overall fertility rate fell to more nearly approximate that prevailing in urban areas. But this does not explain the overall decline in the birth rate, since fertility rates have fallen in both urban and rural areas ovefr the last 150 years. In fact, they have declined faster in rural areas than in urban areas. By J970, the ratio of children under 5 to women aged 20-44 was about 580 per 1,000 in*rural areas and about 500 per 1,000 in urban areas. 4 16 Table 3 IMMIGRATION, 1820-1970 ~ ■" Total Number (in thousands) Period ' “ A Rate1 1820-1970 45,162 3.7 1820-1830 152 1.2 1831-1840 599 3.9 1841-1850 1,713 8.4 1851-1860 2,598 9.3 1861-1870 2,315 6.4 1871-1880 2,812 6.2 1881-1890 5,247 9.2 1891-1900 3,688 5.3 1901-1910 8,795 10.4 1911-1920 5,736 5.7 1921-1930 4,107 3.5 1931-1940 528 0.4 1941-1950 1,035 0.7 1951-1960 2,515 1.5 1961-1970 3,321 1.7 1962 284 1.5 1963 306 1.6 1964 292 1.5 1965 297 1.5 1966 323 1.6 1967 362 1.8 1968 454 2.3 1969 359 1.8 1970 373 1.8 1Annual rate per 1,000 population. 10-year rate computed by dividing sum of annual U.S. population total by sum of annual immigrant totals for same 10 years. Source: Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service; unpublished sources. _______________________ J 5 17 It is difficult to find data on death rates in the United States prior to 1900. Since 1900, however, the life expectancy at birth of the average American has increased significantly. This has been one factor in the rather dramatic decline in the death rate from 17.2 per 1,000 in 1900 to an estimated 9.3 per 1,000 in 1971. Immigration was an important source of population increase in the United States up until the First World War. In 1914, over 1 million immigrants accounted for more than one-third of our total population increase. With the enactment of quotas, how ever, annual immigration declined sharply. Between 1960 and 1970, net immigration was responsible for a population increase of about 3 million, one-eighth of the total population increase of 24 million. In recent years, immigra tion has accounted for about 20 percent of the total annual popu lation increase, reflecting in part a slowing of the natural rate of population growth. In summary, then, the net effect of declining birth and death rates has been a 40-percent reduction in our natural rate of population increase— from 1.5 percent per year in 1900 to 0.9 percent per year in 1970. In the future, we should expect a further increase in life expectancy. This will come about as a result of improved methods for combating disease and current efforts to extend the full benefits of modern medicine to that portion of the popu lation not now enjoying adequate medical care. Predicting the birth rate is more difficult, but there is no reason to believe that it will increase appreciably in the 1970’s. NATIONAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Regional growth patterns in the United States have been influenced by two major developments: the settlement of the West and urbanization. The former was the most important factor prior to the beginning of the 20th century, and the latter has been more important ever since. J790-1890 In 1790 our population was clustered almost entirely along the Atlantic seaboard. Roughly one-half of the people lived in the Northeastern States with an almost equal number in the South 6 Figure 1 Map of the United States, Showing Census Regions and Divisions CENSUS REGIONS AND GEOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS OF THE UNITED STATES [Alaska and Hawaii are drawn at different acales from conterminous United States and are not shown in their correct relative geographic positions] Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 Atlantic States. Only about 3 percent of the country’s popu lation lived in the interior, most of them in Kentucky and Tennessee. In the 100 years after 1790, a significant proportion of the population migrated West— mostly to settle new farmlands. Dur ing this period the population of the North Central States rose from virtually nothing to 22.4 million. By 1890 this region was the most populous in the Nation, with 36 percent of the total population. Over the same period, the South Central States grew to 11.2 million and raised their share of the total population from 3 to 18 percent. Settlement of the interior regions during the 19th century came, relatively speaking, at the expense of States along the Atlantic seaboard. The New England, Middle Atlantic, and South Atlantic States, which had 97 percent of the total popu lation in 1790, accounted for only 42 percent of the total a cen tury later. 1890-1930 By 1890, the amount of prime farmland still available in the central plains had begun to shrink, forcing many migrants to seek lands further west. Between 1890 and 1930, the West South Central and Mountain States increased their combined share of the Nation’s population from 9 to 13 percent, largely at the expense of the older agrarian States. At about this same time, industrialization was beginning to induce the rural-to-urban migration pattern that was to domi nate regional population trends in the first half of the 20th cen tury. The new industrial employment opportunities were located in a relatively small number of urban areas along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Great Lakes— where adequate water transportation was available. Between 1890 and 1930, the most dramatic regional popula tion growth occurred in the Pacific States. Their population increased during these 40 years from 1.9 to 8.6 million, and their share of the Nation’s population went from 3 to 7 percent. U r banization also benefited-the Middle Atlantic States; after 1900, they were able to reverse their steadily diminishing share of the total population. 8 Table 4 POPULATION BY CENSUS DIVISION. 1790-1970 r 9 Census Divisions New England Year 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Thousands %US 25.7 1.009 1,233 23.2 1,472 20.3 1,660 17.2 1,955 15.2 2,235 13.1 2,728 11.8 3,135 10.0 3,488 9.0 4,011 8.0 4,701 7.5 5,592 7.3 6,553 7.1 7,401 7.0 8,166 - 6.6 8,437 6.4 9,314 6.2 10,509 5.9 11,847 5.8 Middle Atlantic Thousands %US 958 1,403 2,015 2.700 3,588 4,526 5,899 7,459 8,811 10,497 12,706 15,455 19,316 22,261 26,261 27,539 30,164 34,168 37,153 24.4 26.4 27.8 28.0 27.9 26.5 25.4 23.7 22.9 20.9 20.2 20.3 20.9 21.0 21.3 20.8 19.9 19.1 18.3 East North Central Thousands 591 272 793 1,470 2,925 4,523 6,927 9,125 11,207 13,478 15,986 18,251 21,476 25,297 26,623 30,399 36,225 40,253 %US 1.0 3.8 8.2 11.4 17.1 19.5 22.0 23.7 22.3 21.4 21.0 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.1 20.1 20.2 19.8 East South Central West South Central %US Thousands %US Thousands %US Thousands 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.5 3.8 6.9 10.0 12.3 14.2 13.6 12.6 11.8 10.8 10.2 9.3 8.6 8.0 1,852 2,287 2,675 3,061 3,646 3,925 4,679 5,365 5,854 7,597 8,858 10,443 12,195 13,990 15,794 17,823 21,182 25,972 30,671 47.1 43.1 36.9 31.8 28.3 23.0 20.2 17.1 15.2 15.1 14.1 13.7 13.2 13.2 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 109 335 709 1,191 1,816 2,575 3,363 4,021 4,404 5,585 6,429 7,548 8,410 8,893 9,887 10,778 11,477 12,050 12,805 2.8 6.3 9.8 12.4 14.1 15.1 14.5 12.8 11.4 11.1 10.2 9.9 9.1 8.4 8.0 8.2 7.6 6.7 6.3 78 168 246 450 940 1,748 2,030 3,334 4,741 6,532 8,785 10,242 12,177 13,065 14,538 16,951 19,323 West North Central Thousands 20 66 141 427 880 2,170 3,857 6,157 8,932 10,347 11,638 12,544 13,297 13,517 14,061 15,394 16,324 South Atlantic %US 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.6 4.1 5.6 5.3 6.6 7.5 8.6 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.5 Pacific Mountain Thousands 73 175 315 653 1,214 1,675 2,634 3,336 3,702 4,150 5,075 6,855 8,283 %US 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 Thousands %US 106 444 675 1,148 1,920 2,634 4,449 5,878 8,622 10,229 15,115 21,198 26,526 0.5 1.4 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.8 5.5 7.0 7.7 10.0 11.8 13.1 Source: Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census ^ . . J 21 1930-1970 The redistribution of population in the United States has con tinued right up to the present time. Growth has slowed in the North Central and Northeastern States (particularly in the met ropolitan areas) and accelerated in many of the Southern, Southwestern, and Western States. By 1970, the share of popu lation held by the Middle Atlantic States had declined to 18 percent, and that of the East North Central States to 20 percent. The last four decades also saw a declining population share in the West North Central States and a continuation of the long term decline in the proportion held by the East South Central States. The most rapidly growing regions during this period were the South Atlantic and Pacific States, which raised their combined share of the total population from 20 percent in 1930 to 28 per cent in 1970. Principal Patterns of Migration Changes in population distribution have come about largely through internal migration. As urban areas grew, the States that remained primarily agricultural began to experience heavy out migration. The first part of the country to experience net outmigration on a truly significant scale was the East South Central region following the close of the Civil War. More than 200,000 people left this area between 1870 and 1880, and the numbers leaving grew more or less consistently in every decade except during the depression years and the 1960’s. Nearly 1.5 million persons left these States in the 1950’s— the largest exodus from any part of the United States during a single decade. The only other section of the country to have had substantial net outmigration over a long period has been the West North Central region. Net outmigration from these States began at the close of the 19th century and gathered momentum after 1910. Since 1920, the average net outmigration from this region has exceeded 600,000 persons per decade. Until 1930, internal migration largely went toward the A t lantic seaboard, the Pacific, and the Mountain States. Since World W ar II, however, the overwhelming proportion of in ternal migration has been toward the Pacific Coast States, prin cipally California. 10 Table 5 NET INTERNAL MIGRATION BY CENSUS DIVISION, 1870-1970 Total and Black [in thousands —denotes net outmigration] > Year New England Middle Atlantic East North Central West North Central South Atlantic East South Central West South Central Mountain 381 268 568 606 37 -23 -465 -656 -580 -42 190 300 197 555 237 -165 1 118 555 307 45 63 57 51 -46 -60 -50 -336 -296 -282 _ - 6 11 -1 6 21 27 16 14 18 37 43 284 278 286 Pacific Total Population—Census Divisions 1870-80 1880-90 1890-1900 1900-10 1910-20 1920-30 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 141 403 494 496 298 28 -43 -6 18 316 129 832 1,085 1,882 798 1,252 67 -163 313 9 28 399 597 503 1,274 1,160 -101 343 694 -153 869 1,081 -87 -83 -280 -655 -569 -899 -827 -599 -39 -118 -217 -91 -36 -634 146 159 647 1,332 -205 -247 -245 -429 -612 -571 -364 -1,043 -1,466 -698 197 506 296 1,349 958 1,873 1,178 2,994 3,288 2,547 Black Population--Census Divisions 1870-80 1880-90 1890-1900 1900-10 1910-20 1920-30 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 5 7 14 8 12 7 5 25 60 72 19 39 90 87 170 342 166 387 436 540 20 16 39 46 200 324 108 494 504 356 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. V 16 8 24 10 44 40 20 35 37 26 -49 -73 -182 -112 -162 -509 -175 -424 -556 -538 -56 -60 -43 -110 -246 -180 -123 -485 -622 -560 23 The decade between 1960 and 1970 saw some dramatic changes in migration patterns, which affected long-term growth trends in virtually every part of the country. The Middle At lantic States, which had absorbed very substantial numbers of internal migrants in nearly every decade over the past 100 years, picked up a- negligible 9,000 persons in the 1960’s. The East North Central States, which had an inmigration of more than 1 million persons between 1940 and 1960, lost more than 150,000 between 1960 and 1970. In sharp contrast with earlier decades, New England suddenly found itself on the receiving end of the migration stream with more than 300,000 new migrants during the decade. The South Atlantic States doubled their rate of new immigration from 647,000 in the 1950’s to more than 1.3 mil lion in the 1960’s. The result of these regional shifts has been a concentration of the population along the three coastlines and the Great Lakes. By 1970, about one-half of the total population lived within 50 miles of the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Great Lakes. Migration patterns continue to reinforce an overall westward shift of the Nation’s population. In 1790, the population center of the United States was 23 miles east of Baltimore; in 1970, it was about 30 miles southeast of St. Louis, Mo. The population trends in certain States over the past 10 years serve to illustrate the continuing westward shift. The fastest grow ing States during this period were Nevada (71 percent), Florida (37 percent), Arizona (36 percent), and Alaska (34 percent). Several States had growth rates between 20 and 30 percent, in cluding New Hampshire, Delaware, Maryland, Colorado, Cali fornia, and Hawaii. At the other extreme, several States experienced growth rates of less than 5 percent during the decade: Maine, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Iowa, Montana, Wyoming. West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and the District of Columbia actually lost population. Migration Patterns of the Black Population The internal migration patterns of the black population have been less complex and varied than those of the population gen erally. Data on black migration go back only to 1870, the begin ning of the massive outmigration of blacks from the South to 12 Figure 2 The Shifting Center of Population, 1790 to 1970 DEPARTMENT 3F c o m m erce BUREAU OF THE CENSUS "Center of population" is that point which may be considered as center of population gravity of the United States or that point upon which the United States would balance if it were a rigid plane without weight and the population distributed thereon with each individual being assumed to have equal weight and to exert an influence on a central point proportional to his distance for that point. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 25 the North, principally from rural areas to the large metropolitan centers on the Great Lakes and the Eastern seaboard. There has been a net migration of blacks out of the South Atlantic and East South Central States in every decade since 1870, and out of the West South Centra! States since 1910. In absolute numbers, the net migration of blacks out of the South ern States accelerated for 90 years to reach a peak of nearly 1.5 million in the 1950’s. Only in the 1960’s did the trend begin to level off, and then only slightly. Generally, the outmigration of blacks has tended to increase in prosperous times and decline in periods of depression. It is probable that the numbers of blacks leaving the South between 1910 and 1940 would have been much larger had it not been for the depression of the 1930’s and the recovery of agriculture in several Southern States stemming from the growing popularity of tobacco. THE POPULATION SHIFT FROM RURAL TO URBAN AREAS In 1790, the vast majority of the population lived in rural areas. Only 5 percent lived in communities of more than 2,500 people and only half of these in cities of more than 10,000. The United States remained a predominantly rural economy until 1920 when, for the first time, the census showed more than half the population living in urban places.2 The urbanization trend began in 1840 and helps explain the steady decline in crude birth rates which lasted until 1940. By 1970, 74 percent of the popu lation resided in cities of more than 2,500 people; 58 percent lived in urbanized areas of 50,000 or more. Since 1920, the Bureau of the Census has collected more de tailed information about the characteristics of urban and rural populations from which it is possible to describe the nature of the rural to urban population shift with more precision. The Declining Farm Population A major factor in rural to urban migration has been the decline in farm population. In 1920 (the earliest year for which there is a The terminology employed here will be that used by the U.S. Census Bureau. Thus, an “ urban place” is a place with more than 2,500 people, and an “ urbanized” area is the developed area that includes and surrounds a city, or twin cities of at least 50,000 population. Rural places are places containing less than 2,500 people. For a more complete definition of these concepts, see the PC (1) “ A Report of the 1970 Census.” 14 Table 6 U.S. POPULATION BY RESIDENCE, 1790-1970 (EXCLUDES ALASKA AND HAWAII PRIOR TO 1950) — Year Urban Urbanized Thousands 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 69,249 95,848 118,447 Other Urban Places % US 45.8 53.5 58.3 Thousands 27,598 29,429 30,878 Total Farm % US Thousands %US 18.2 16.4 15.2 202 322 525 693 1,127 1,845 3,544 6,217 9,902 14,130 22,106 30,160 41,999 54,158 68,955 74,424 96,847 125,269 149,325 5.1 6.1 7.3 7.2 8.8 10.8 15.3 19.8 25.7 28.2 35.1 39.7 45.7 51.2 56.2 56.5 64.0 69.9 73.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Cn --------- \ Rural Thousands 31,974 30,529 30,547 23,048 15,635 9,712 Nonfarm % US 30.2 24.9 23.2 15.2 8.7 4.8 Thousands 19,579 23,291 26,699 31,431 38,419 44,175 Total %US 18.5 19.0 20.3 20.8 21.4 21.7 Thousands 3,728 4,986 6,714 8,945 11,739 15,224 19,648 25,227 28,656 36,026 40,841 45,835 49,973 51,553 53,820 57.246 54,479 54,054 53,887 %US 94.9 93.9 92.7 92.8 91.2 89.2 84.7 80.2 74.3 71.8 64.9 60.3 54.3 48.8 43.8 43.5 36.0 30.1 26.5 reliable data), the farm population of the United States stood at 32 million persons— 59 percent of the total rural population and 30 percent of the total national population. By 1950, rural farm population had declined to 23 million, a drop of about 9 million in 30 years. For the first time, there were more rural residents living off farms than on them. The last 20 years have seen a continuation of this trend. In 1970, there were less than 10 million people living on farms, a further decline of over 13 million which left farm residents ac counting for only 18 percent of the rural population and only 5 percent of the total population. This reflects declining employ ment opportunities in agriculture. A revolution in farming methods has taken place since the mid1930’s that has resulted in substantial productivity gains. Esti mates prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that postwar productivity gains in agriculture have outstripped those in every other major segment in our economy. Between 1947 and 1970, output per man-hour on the typical American farm in creased by an average of 5.9 percent per year. In manufacturing, productivity increased by an average of just less than 3 percent per year, and in the rest of the nonagricultural economy by only 2.4 percent per year. As a result of these rapid increases in productivity which have not been matched by increases in demand for farm products, less labor is needed on the farm. Table 7 CHANGES IN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF LABOR REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THREE BASIC CROPS f Corn for grain Wheat Cotton Man-hours per unit 1: 1800 344 373 601 1935-39 108 67 209 1965-69 7 11 30 Average annual percentage increase in labor productivity 1800-1937 0.8 1.3 0.8 1937-1957 9.1 6.0 6.4 Ver 100 bushel for corn and wheat; per bale for cotton. Source: Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Vw. 16 1 Table 8 NET MIGRATION FROM FARMS, 1925-69 r "N Period Net migration (thousands) Period Net migration (thousands) 1925-29 -2,965 1950-54 -5,576 1930-34 288 1955-59 -4,552 1935-39 -3,542 1960-64 -3,968 1940-44 -8,018 1965-69 -2,972 1945-49 -3,385 Source. D ep artm ent o f Agriculture, Econom ic Research Service. Other Factors Influencing Rural-Urban Migration Rural-urban migration has also resulted from declining em ployment of several nonagricultural industries that traditionally have been located in rural areas. Chief among these are mining, fishing, and forestry. The force behind these declines is the same as the one affecting agriculture: increased productivity as a result of mechanization. Employment trends in nonagricultural indus tries has probably not been as significant in inducing rural-urban migration as the decline in farm employment has been. For in stance, between 1930 and 1970, employment in mining declined by 387,000 while employment in agriculture declined by 6.9 million. GROWTH IN METROPOLITAN AREAS It has become increasingly apparent that urbanization in volves a complex series of subtle social and economic shifts that require a more sophisticated form of population analysis. A c cordingly, the Office of Management and Budget has designated Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SM SA’s), each con sisting of a “ central city5’ with a population of 50,000 or more plus the contiguous counties with an urbanized population. At the time of the 1970 census, there were 243 SMSA’s.3These SMSA’s contained 139 million people, or 69 percent of the Na tion’s total population of 203 million. They varied in size from 56,000 in Meriden, Conn., to 11.5 million in New York City. 3 Since the 1970 census, 20 additional SM SA ’s have been created. They have been excluded from the data presented in this section. These areas also varied in importance from State to State and from region to region, The most heavily metropolitan State in 1970 was California where 93 percent of the population lived in SMSA’s. At the other extreme were three States— Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming— in which none of the population lived in metropolitan areas. (In 1971, Greater Anchorage, Alaska, was recognized as an SMSA, leaving only two States without popula tion centers of more than 50,000.) Rates of Growth Growth rates in individual SMSA’s varied widely during the 1970’s. Among SMSA’s with at least 200,000 persons, the net population change ranged from a decline of 9 percent in Charles ton, W. Va., to an increase of 115 percent in Las Vegas, Nev. SMSA’s in the West experienced the most rapid rate of growth— 28 percent. Metropolitan areas in the South did nearly as well, with an average increase over the decade of 22 percent. The smallest gains were in the North Central and Northeastern States where SMSA’s grew by only 13 and 9 percent, respectively. Among metropolitan areas with populations below 2 million, growth since 1960 seems to have varied consistently with the size of the area. In general, larger metropolitan areas grew faster than smaller areas. This pattern can be seen in growth rates in all of the regions except the Northeastern region, and is especially strong in the West and South— the two regions which accounted for a disproportionately large amount of our metro politan population growth during the past decade. The density of population, the location of the largest popula tion increases, and the economic and racial composition of the central cities are three additional factors of importance in analyzing population trends within our metropolitan areas. Population Density The basic pattern of development within individual cities—■ higher density at the center, lower density at the edge— has re mained essentially unchanged for almost a century. However, for some time our urban areas have been spreading out faster than population growth alone would justify. As a result, popula tion density has tended to decline at the center of town just as it has in the urban area as a whole. 18 30 Table 9 P O PU LA TIO N OF SMSA'S A N D POPU LA TIO N CHANGES BY SIZE CLASS IN 1970, FOR REGIONS: 1970 A N D 1960 [SMSA's according to 1970 definition] Percent Region and size class of SMSA in 1970 Population in Thousands change in population 1960-70 1970 1960 139,374 119,581 16.6 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 52,181 28,433 46,591 22,467 12.0 26.6 500,000 to 999,999 21,935 18,589 18.0 250,000 to 499,999 19,761 16.3 Less than 250,000 17,065 16,992 14,943 39,083 35,984 8.6 21,502 4,565 5,497 20,038 4,183 4,921 7.3 9.1 11.7 4,261 3,259 3,963 2,878 7.5 13.2 37,744 33,429 12.9 15,606 13,997 11.5 500,000 to 999,999 6,966 5,387 6,066 4,720 14.8 14.1 250,000 to 499,999 4,549 Less than 250,000 5,236 4,018 4,627 13.2 13.2 35,173 28,841 22.0 4,932 8,257 3,868 6,169 6,710 27.5 33.9 20.7 17.6 U nited States, total 2,000,000 or more p opulation Northeast, to ta l 2,000,000 or more p opulation 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 500,000 to 999,999 250,000 to 499,999 Less than 250,000 North Central, to ta l 2,000,000 or more p opulation 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 South, tota l 2,000,000 or more population 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 500,000 to 999,999 250,000 to 499,999 Less than 250,000 West, tota l 2,000,000 or more population 8,096 7,388 6,501 6,282 5,811 14.2 11.9 27,372 21,328 10,141 8,688 16.7 8,645 42.9 28.3 500,000 to 999,999 2,955 6,048 2,237 250,000 to 499,999 3,562 2,729 30.5 Less than 250,000 2,069 1,626 27.2 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 32.1 S ource: D e p a rtm e n t o f Com m erce, Bureau o f the Census j In 1950, the average population density in all “ urbanized ar e a s” in the United States was 5.408 per square mile. By 1960 it had declined to 3,752 per square mile, and by 1970 it was down to 3,376 per square mile. For central cities, urbanized population density fell from 7,786 per square mile in 1950 to 4,163 in 1970. 19 31 During these same years, urbanized population densities in subur ban areas fell from 3,167 per square mile to 2,627 per square mile. Comparable census data are not available prior to 1950. But one study, which reconstructed population densities in several urbanized areas as far back as 1880, has shown that in most metropolitan areas population density at the center of the pri mary city has been declining since at least 1910. This certainly has been the case in New York City, the Nation’s most densely populated city. Here, the population density in the Borough of Manhattan has declined almost continuously since 1910, from 102,711 per square mile in 1910 to 67,160 per square mile in 1970. Location of Largest Population Increase A second important change in the pattern of metropolitan growth involves the political jurisdictions within which growth has taken place. Urban population growth has always been con centrated on the fringe of the urbanized area, where most of the vacant land suitable for building new houses is located. Histori cally, our cities were able to capture growth by extending their boundaries to encompass the areas in which new industries and new housing were being located. In this way, they were able to continually expand both their population and their tax bases. Recently, this situation has begun to change. Areas outside central cities have become incorporated, so that cities attempting to annex the areas in which population growth is occurring often find themselves confronting independent political jurisdictions which are much more difficult to annex. Consequently, the popu lation of many cities has stopped growing. Increasingly, this pattern has become the rule rather than the exception in our large urban areas. Most of the rapid growth which metropolitan areas have experienced since 1950 has oc curred in the suburbs— generally in the most outlying suburbs— rather than in the central city. Between 1960 and 1970, the aggregate population of central cities increased by 3,852,000 or 6.4 percent; the aggregate popu lation of suburban areas increased by 15,939,000 or 26.7 per cent. Put differently, over 80 percent of the total population in crease in our metropolitan areas occurred in suburban locations and less than 20 percent occurred in central cities. 20 Table 10 SUMMARY OF POPULATION CHANGES FOR CENTRAL CITIES BY SIZE CLASS, INCLUDING AND EXCLUDING ANNEXATIONS 1960-70 X— — ...... . Population Change, 1960-70 Central cities by size Total population 1970 Less than 100,000 10,141,890 780,205 100,000 population or more 53,682,590 100,000 249,999 .............. ..........— Percent Change Including annexations 832,915 -52,710 8.3 -0 .6 3,088,107 2,711,858 376,249 6.1 0.7 11,483,502 1,154,822 1,012,474 142,348 11.2 1.4 250,000 to 749,999 20,197,844 1,613,033 1,637,494 24,461 8.7 -0.1 750,000 or more 22,001,244 320,252 61,890 258,362 1.5 1.2 Due to annexations \ Excluding annexations Excluding annexations Source: Including annexations — D ep artm ent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ / 33 This trend is even more striking when the population increases of our central cities are divided into those resulting from annexa tions and those resulting from growth within their 1960 bounda ries. For all central cities, population growth occurring within their 1960 boundaries amounted to only 700,000 persons during the last decade. Thus, one could say that the growth in our central city populations during the last decade actually amounted to less than 4 percent of the total increase in metropolitan popu lation. Small central cities— those with populations under 100,000— actually suffered a population decline within their 1960 boundaries of 0.6 percent. As our people continue to seek low density life styles the popu lation of some fully developed communities has begun to decline. Since 1950, this has happened in Baltimore, Boston, Philadel phia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, and St. Louis. Moreover, the same thing is beginning to happen in selected suburban com munities which have themselves become surrounded by other suburban communities. The 1970 census found that population decreases where experienced by such suburban communities as University City, M o.; Dearborn, M ich.; Brookfield, 111.; Chevy Chase Village, M d .; and Burbank, Calif. There is no reason to believe that the trends exhibited between 1960 and 1970 will not continue through the 1970’s. Composition of Central City Population The third significant trend occurring within metropolitan areas relates to the changing composition of the metropolitan popula tion. As our urban areas have grown, those persons best able to afford new housing have moved out to occupy it, leaving much of the older housing stock for poorer families and individuals. With the boundaries of central cities becoming fixed, this move ment has taken on a new significance: the movement of middle and upper class families to better housing has resulted in a con centration of the poor within central city boundaries. By 1970, 13.4 percent of the population of our central cities was composed of people with incomes below the poverty line, whereas only 7.2 percent of the suburban population was composed of such individuals. 22 34 Paralleling the economic separation within metropolitan areas is the trend toward separation by race. In general, most of the growth in black population has occurred within the bound aries of our central cities, and within those cities, in segregated neighborhoods. This trend is due in large part to economic and social forces which have limited the availability of housing for blacks and minorities outside the central city area. During the 1960’s the black population of central cities grew by 3.2 million, while the white population in these cities declined by 600 thou sand. In contrast, the number of blacks in suburban areas grew by 800 thousand, while the white population showed a 15.5 million increase. Most of the increase in blacks outside central cities took place in a relatively small number of areas; two out of every three new black suburbanites were in one of the 12 largest metropolitan areas, and more than one-third of them were in just three areas— New York, Los Angeles, and Washington. Table 11 1970 POPULATION AND 1960-70 CHANGE IN POPULATION FOR U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS, BY SIZE OF AREA AND RACE [SMSA's according to 1970 definition] “N f-m Change, 1960-70 1970 population Race and size class of S M S A Inside central city Outside central city Total Inside central city Outside central city Total Total 63,824 75,549 139,374 3,194 16,598 19,793 2,000,000 or more 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 500,000 to 999,999 250,000 to 499,999 Under 250,000 23,143 11,668 10,871 8,670 9,472 29,038 16,764 11,563 10,592 7,593 52,181 28,433 22,434 19,261 17,065 -4 2 4 1,034 748 783 1,053 6,013 4,931 2,683 1,901 1,070 5,590 5,966 3,431 2,664 2,122 White 49,450 71,061 120,512 2,000,000 or more 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 500,000 to 999,999 250,000 to 499,999 Under 250,000 16,025 9,225 8,544 7,317 8,338 27,260 15,942 10,900 9,876 7,084 Negro 13,148 3,645 2,000,000 or more 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 500,000 to 999,999 250,000 to 499,999 Under 250,000 6,536 2,270 2,016 1,256 1,069 1,475 663 444 607 456 Source: Departm ent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. L -6 0 7 15,301 14,695 43,285 -2 ,4 8 9 25,167 322 19,261 273 17,193 488 15,422 826 5,262 4,645 2,564 4,940 1,779 1,051 2,837 2,267 1,877 16,793 3,234 820 4,054 8,011 2,934 2,460 1,864 1,524 1,755 637 417 238 186 547 182 33 69 2,302 820 451 307 174 -1 1 2,773 1 23 35 Each of these facts and figures represents a separate brush stroke in our portrait of the American people. They help us to understand the patterns of national growth which have shaped our life in 1972. They provide the foundation for our planning as we seek to influence those patterns in the future. 24 36 CHAPTER II THE CHALLENGE OF BALANCED AND ORDERLY GROWTH The growth and change that our Nation has experienced in the past have brought substantial benefits. Population growth has been accompanied by even more rapid economic expansion, enabling the United States to enjoy the highest standard of living ever achieved by a major nation. Generally, the patterns of migration from rural to urban areas and from one region of the country to another have brought population to where employ ment opportunities are. Urban development and suburban growth have given millions of American families better housing, facilities, and services. The automobile and the extensive high way system— probably the most important forces influencing the pattern of growth in the post-World War II period— have increased the mobility of American families and provided them with greater access to jobs, housing, recreation, and shopping. This growth, in the form of population changes, technological development, economic expansion, and individual initiative, will almost certainly continue during the foreseeable future. PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH GROWTH In the last decade, however, we have begun to recognize that a number of problems are associated with the process and patterns of growth. Policies are needed to deal with these problems and to insure that future growth is both orderly and balanced. As Presi dent Nixon has said, “ the growth which this Nation will in evitably experience in the coming decades will be healthy growth only if it is balanced growth— and this means growth which is distributed among both urban and rural areas.55 Orderly growth 25 37 requires overcoming the problems associated with past growth and preventing their repetition in the future. This will neces sitate action by all parts of our society— individuals and families, private enterprise, and government at the local, State, and Fed eral levels. The Decline of Rural Areas and Small Towns The Nation’s total rural population— that is, the number of persons living in open country or in places with less than 2,500 inhabitants— has remained relatively constant over most of this century. Nevertheless, changes in population composition and economic activity have produced a number of serious problems for many small, nonmetropolitan towns and other rural areas. Since the 1940’s, farm population has declined so rapidly that it now constitutes less than one-fifth of total rural population. At the same time, the number of market and service centers needed by this shrinking segment of rural America has fallen, meaning that many small towns are no longer able to serve their original function. While some growth in nonfarm employment did occur in non metropolitan areas during the decade of the 1960’s, the increase was unevenly distributed. In fact, half of the Nation’s counties did not experience any growth in nonfarm employment, due to such factors as their remoteness from large-volume markets, lack of natural resources and skilled labor, inadequate public facilities, absence of recreational and cultural activities, the financial difficulties of local governments, and limited pools from which to draw effective leadership. Where employment opportunities have failed consistently to match the number of jobseekers, many younger and better edu cated persons have sought jobs in larger towns and cities, leaving behind an older and less skilled population in the midst of de teriorating economies. Often, the result is a tax base inadequate to finance basic public services or to attract new job-producing investment (which would augment the tax base). Consequently, many indicators show nonmetropolitan areas lagging behind metropolitan areas in terms of economic and social conditions. For example, in 1970, 13.8 percent of nonmetropol itan families were below the official poverty level compared with 7.9 percent of metropolitan families; and the median income of families in nonmetropolitan areas was $2,000 less than that of 26 38 families in metropolitan areas. The percentage of high school and college graduates in the rural population is smaller. Rural areas have fewer medical and dental personnel in proportion to their population. The incidence of substandard housing is about three times higher in nonmetropolitan areas (where three-fifths of the Nation’s substandard housing units were located in 1970). And in many rural areas, vital public services and facilities— such as police and fire protection, a clean water supply, sewage disposal, air transportation facilities, and recreational and cultural oppor tunities— are unavailable, inadequate, or provided only at high cost. The Changing Role of the Central City Shifts in population and changes in the location of economic activity have also had a substantial impact on the physical, social, and economic vitality of many central cities. The influx of low-income families and individuals has placed a heavy burden on municipal services and facilities. At the same time, the revenue sources available to pay for them have been shrinking, as middle and upper income families, together with commercial and industrial enterprises, move to the suburbs. These families may continue to place demands on central city facilities and services, intensifying the problems cities face in providing them. The stagnant or declining tax bases of most large cities, to gether with the growing costs of the police, fire, welfare, and sani tation services, have often led to a reduction in the quality of serv ices. This falls especially hard on poor families since they suffer the consequences of crime, vandalism, drug addiction, and neigh borhood deterioration more than other Americans. Racial and Economic Concentration Population movements have increased racial and economic concentration in urban areas. The percent of metropolitan fam ilies with incomes below the official poverty level living in the central city increased from 61.3 in 1960 to 63.1 in 1970. Between 1960 and 1970, the percent of blacks living inside central cities increased from 51.5 to 55.2 and the percent of whites living out side central cities increased from 32.6 to 38.6. A large number 27 39 of urban poor, black, and other minority families are concen trated in particular inner city neighborhoods. Environmental and Transportation Effects Increasing population in large metropolitan areas has inten sified problems of air, water, and noise pollution and other forms of environmental degradation. Forests, streams, swamps, shore lines, wetlands, open space, and scenic areas have been consumed by metropolitan development. Few cities have found ways to control traffic congestion. Many urban dwellers spend a substantial proportion of their time con tending with problems of clogged streets and highways and trying to find parking spaces at their destination. At the same time, declining densities within metropolitan areas have made it diffi cult to provide efficient, self-supporting public transportation service. Rising Land Costs In most areas of the United States, rapid increases in land costs have accompanied urban growth. Census Bureau surveys of the price of new homes indicate that land values increased about 6 percent annually between 1963 and 1969. The National Associa tion of Homebuilders report that the proportion of a new home’s value accounted for by site costs rose from 11 percent in 1949 to 24 percent in 1969. Similarly, site costs of homes financed with FHA-insured loans rose from 17 percent of total value in 1960 to 20 percent in 1970. Inflation in land prices contributed to the 75percent increase in housing costs during the 1965-70 period. FORMULATION OF A SINGLE COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY: OBSTACLES AND ISSUES Each of the problems discussed above is a primary concern of this Nation. Government should address itself to alleviating these problems, and, at the same time, adopting policies towrard growth that will prevent their recurrence in the future. Developing a single comprehensive strategy— a national growth policy— for dealing with the forces of growth, is an ex tremely difficult undertaking. It is made so by a variety of obsta cles and issues that must be clearly recognized if our Nation is 28 40 to be successful in meeting the challenge of growth. This section discusses some of these obstacles and issues. Specifying the Coals and Problems of Growth Defining the objectives of a national growth policy requires a searching consideration of our national objectives and priorities. This task becomes increasingly difficult as we move closer to specific goals. In the abstract, the concept of growth policy commands nearly universal support. Conflicts and issues arise, however, as individual issues are specified and priorities established. A recent unpublished study of growth policy issues cites 25 domestic prob lems which have been identified as possible targets of a national growth policy. It observes, however, that few individuals and groups see the growth question this broadly. Most individuals look to a growth policy to remedy the four or five problems about which he or she is most concerned. To the extent these problems conflict with one another, developing a comprehensive growth policy becomes more difficult. In fact, solving even one of these problems may create new problems for which various groups will look to a growth policy for solution. Not only do individuals frequently disagree over which prob lems in the growth area are most pressing; many times individuals disagree over whether a particular consequence of growth is in deed a problem at all. The well-known phenomenon of “ sprawl55 provides a good example. As chapter I points out, population densities in urban areas have been falling for some time. The resulting living patterns have been attacked by some individuals as wasteful and inef ficient. Low-density utilization of land use raises the costs of public facilities— requiring extra miles of streets and sewer lines— and increases the distance traveled in reaching destina tions. It is sometimes argued that self-contained villages in which, for example, workers walk to work would be less expensive than present patterns. But it is well to place this trend in proper perspective. Lowdensity living appears to be the style of living most preferred by our population. Many individuals and families, hence, are willing to pay the price of sprawl— greater distances traveled (although not necessarily more time spent traveling), higher public facility costs— in order to enjoy low-density living. 29 41 Identifying the Link Between the Growth Process and Growth Problems The problems associated with growth, by any definition, in clude many of the most intractable social and governmental concerns of this country. The relationship of these issues to national growth is complex and sometimes obscure. Growth is rarely the single cause of a problem; more often, a problem or condition both affects the patterns of growth and is affected by them. Racial and economic discrimination, for example, has been a cause of unbalanced growth, while growth, in turn, has contrib uted to the problem. Influencing the M any Determinants of Growth Patterns of growth are influenced by countless decisions made by individuals, families, and businesses. These decisions are aimed at achieving the personal goals of those who make them, and re flect healthy free choices in our society. Locational shifts by indi viduals reflect, in part, a search for better job opportunities or for a better climate, while businessmen relocate where they can operate most efficiently and therefore make the most profit. The factors that influence these decisions may be susceptible to changes that will alter the emerging growth patterns, but, in a Nation that values freedom in the private sector and democratic choice in the public, the decisions themselves cannot be dictated. Determining the Proper Level of Government To Influence Growth In many nations, the central government has undertaken force ful, comprehensive policies to control the process of growth. Simi lar policies have not been adopted in the United States for several reasons. Among the most important of these is the distinctive form of government which we value so highly in this country. Ours is a federal system, with powers shared between the States and National Government. This system preserves the ability of citizens to have a major voice in determining policies that most directly affect them. This voice is sustained by keeping govern ment close to the people. Another important reason for the lack of a single dominant growth policy is the sheer size of our Nation. .The United States is a vast country— many times bigger than even the largest of the 30 42 Western European countries. While we may observe certain com mon patterns of growth throughout the Nation, there are also distinct differences within each area. Patterns of growth reflect many determinations having primarily local significance, such as local tax levies; the location of public facilities and roads; the extension of sewer, water, electric, and gas services; specific zon ing and building regulations; the approval of development plans. These decisions can best reflect specific community factors and objectives if they are made at the local level. Accordingly, it is not feasible for the highest level of government to design policies for development that can operate successfully in all parts of the Nation. MEETING THE CHALLENGES OF GROWTH If we are to meet the challenges of national growth, we must begin by determining where in our governmental system we can best deal with the problems and opportunities of growth. In some cases, the Federal Government is the only body with the capability to assure balanced and orderly growth. This is especially true in the economic area. Fiscal and monetary policy, prudently conducted, can do much to keep the Nation’s economy growing at its full potential. Similarly, Federal support for re search and development can help accelerate the pace of techno logical advancement, which is so necessary to a growing economy. There are also some growth problems which are truly national problems, and which should be addressed by the Federal Gov ernment. These problems are national, not in the sense that they crop up in many places— street lighting is a pervasive problem but hardly a national problem— but because no one State can deal with them effectively. Water and air pollution are good examples of these national problems. However, any consideration of growth issues must recognize that many of these issues fall within the boundaries of State and local governments. The following chapter looks at the way in which these bodies have responded to the forces of growth in recent years. 31 43 CHAPTER III RECENT STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS TO INFLUENCE GROWTH The Federal Government can do much to set the tone and provide leadership and new directions for the Nation in prepar ing for growth. The legislation it enacts, the policies it formulates, and the programs it administers all influence the direction and form of development in particular areas. Nevertheless, the nature of growth in America in the years ahead will depend primarily upon the scope and nature of actions taken by State and local governments and upon the countless deci sions made by tens of thousands of individuals and business en terprises, large and small, that are involved in the planning, building, and servicing of our burgeoning urban and rural com munities and neighborhoods. State and local governments to gether determine the actual pattern of land use in metropolitan areas and the countryside. And it is private capital for the most part that finances the physical construction and the economic and social development that carries out those decisions. O f course, individual aspects of growth cut across State lines and must be dealt with from a broader perspective than that of a single State. Even in these instances, however, existing units of State and local government play important roles in formulat ing and implementing policies for dealing with the problems and opportunities of growth. THE STATE ROLE States rarely attempt to control land use directly. In most cases, this is left to lower levels of government— counties, townships, and municipalities. However, the extent to which these govern ments can control or influence the growth process is heavily dependent upon the statutory framework in which they operate. 33 44 This framework is set down by the States and provides both the powers that local governments exercise, and limitations on the use of these powers. The three most important features of this framework, from the standpoint of influencing growth, are: the structure of local government, the financing of local government, and local control over land use. The structure of local government is set forth in State constitu tions and State statutes. Together they determine, for example, • The relative ease with which a town or city can expand its borders through annexation to keep pace with population movements; • The degree to which local units of government are suscepti ble to consolidation; • The extent to which it is possible for neighboring local gov ernments to transfer functions for more economical and effective performance; and • The extent to which the citizens or local governments in metropolitan areas may establish areawide authorities or districts for managing water and sewer utilities, mass trans portation, environmental regulation, or other areawide problems. Ease of incorporation or difficulty of annexation, or both, are likely to produce a fragmented local tax base which, in turn, usually means disparities in fiscal resources among the local gov ernment jurisdictions making up a metropolitan area. The practice of operating public schools through separate dis tricts that, for the most part, depend on the property tax has also produced disparities in the resources that can be spent for each child’s education. Although 17 States require local schools to be administered on a countywide basis, most States administer them through small districts. As in the case of cities, counties, and towns, the greater the number of school districts within a metro politan area, the greater will be the fiscal disparities between the richest and poorest districts. The financing of local government, likewise, is covered in State constitutions and statutes. In most cases, the State controls the taxes and user charges which a local government can levy. With only a handful of exceptions, any local government desiring to impose a new tax must first go to the State legislature for statu tory permission. The State also controls the amount local govern ments can borrow, limiting the manner and dispatch with which 34 45 these governments can respond to problems of growth or stagnation. Limitations on the use of income and sales taxes have forced local governments to rely heavily for their revenue upon taxes levied on real property. Over 85 percent of local government taxes are raised through the property tax. This, in turn, has exercised a significant influence over local land use decisions. Control over land use is a general power of State govern ment. A State may influence land use either through direct acquisition or through statutory controls. Through negotiated purchase or condemnation, State and local governments are able to acquire land for a variety of pur poses, including open space, recreation, roads, schools, and other public facilities. Zoning powers enable public bodies to control the use of pri vately owned land. In nearly every State, this power has been delegated almost entirely to local governments of any and every size. Tiny municipalities with populations of a few hundred people are able, through the zoning power, to control the use of land within their boundaries. By regulating the size of lots and by restricting residential use to single-family dwellings, local gov ernments have had a considerable influence over the kind of fam ilies which are able to buy homes within the municipal bounda ries. The objective of these regulations often is to limit the kind of families moving in to only those that will “ pay their way55— who will pay more taxes than they will consume in public services. This practice, known as “ fiscal zoning,” tends to preclude pur chase and occupancy of homes by large or low-income families. Recent Trends in the Involvement of States in the Growth Process As noted above, State governments traditionally had little di rect involvement with the growth process, delegating most of their responsibilities to local governments. For the most part, States confined their activities to the areas of taxation, regulation, judicial functions, and agriculture. Although they gradually be came involved in highway construction and maintenance, educa tion, and certain health and welfare functions during the 19505s, even as late as the mid-1960’s few States were directly involved in other community development functions related to growth. This pattern is now changing. In recent years, an increasing number of States have been moving affirmatively to deal with the 81-745 O - 72 35 - pt. 1 - - 4 46 pressures associated with growth. Some States have begun the difficult process of attempting to differentiate between areas where growth should be encouraged and areas where it should not be. Serious discussions of policies toward growth have begun in a number of States. There have also been a wide variety of specific State initiatives affecting the growth process— most of them undertaken with out any Federal “ sticks” or “ carrots.” While much remains to be done, progress at the State level is encouraging. State Departments of Urban Affairs Since the mid-1960’s, every State has set up administrative mechanisms within State government for dealing with local and urban problems. In some States, a special assistant within the office of the Governor has been assigned responsibilities in this area. Over 30 States, however, have established formal offices of urban affairs, housing and community development, or local government relations, for dealing with these problems. Most of them act to coordinate programs that concern the urban areas of the State, study housing and other emerging urban problems, recommend action to the Governor and legislature, provide plan ning and technical assistance to local units of government, and serve as a liaison between local governments and agencies of the State government. State Housing Finance Agencies Seventeen States have created State housing finance agencies to provide low- and moderate-income housing. These agencies generally seek to encourage private housing enterprise by provid ing loans, grants, or second-mortgage financing and technical assistance to nonprofit or limited-profit sponsors. They are using tax-exempt revenue bonds for low- and moderate-housing con struction, thereby providing an interest subsidy that can reduce monthly rentals by $20 to $40 per unit. Six States have created mortgage credit programs involving the sale of tax-exempt reve nue bonds to create a secondary mortgage market. Others pro vide mortgage insurance for low- and moderate-income housing. Some of these agencies are involved in the direct provision of housing as well. In Delaware, for example, the housing authority is empowered to build or rehabilitate housing to be sold, and the West Virginia authority may assemble and hold land for future 36 47 development. In addition, six States have established statewide public housing authorities. State Urban Development Corporation New York has established an urban development corporation to stimulate community development by assuming the initial risks and delays which often plague large projects. Other States are considering the creation of similar corporations, The New York corporation is authorized to initiate the plan ning and construction of needed public facilities. In addition, it may sponsor urban renewal projects and build certain housing, commercial, and civic facilities. The corporation is empowered to sell or lease its projects to public agencies or private investors at the earliest feasible time, whether during planning, construc tion, or operation. Increased Involvement With Environmental Concerns Several States have added environmental bills of rights to their constitutions. In November 1970, Rhode Island and Vir ginia voters approved such amendments, declaring that the peo ple have the right to clean air and water, an attractive and healthy environment, and preserved natural resources. More than a dozen States have established departments of State government concerned with environmental matters. Ver mont has gone even further and established control boards in each environmental region of the State to insure conformance of all improvements and developments of 10 acres or more with State environmental legislation. In addition to creating environmental agencies, State legis latures have enacted a significant body of substantive legislation dealing with environmental problems. Last year, for example, the North Carolina Legislature joined three other States in re quiring the preparation of a detailed environmental impact state ment before any project can receive State financial assistance. In addition, legislation was passed to require periodic reporting of all pollutants discharged into the air or water. Regulations were placed on discharge of wastes from boats, septic tanks, and ani mal and poultry producers. A scenic rivers system was authorized. Oil shippers were made liable for cleanup and damages from spills. Beach, coastal, and estuarine protections were strength ened. Funding procedures were established for erosion control. 37 48 Environmental controls were placed on public utilities. Antilitter and junk vehicle laws were tightened. Construction of regional water supply systems was authorized. The State joined the South ern Regional Environmental Compact. Reclamation was re quired of surface mining operations. A pesticide board was created. And a comprehensive State land use study was initiated. New State Land Use Controls As mentioned earlier, zoning controls over land use are exer cised almost exclusively by local governments, although the power stems from the State. Only within the last 2 or 3 years have States begun to retrieve any of these powers from their local governments. • In 1969 Oregon and Maine joined Hawaii in establishing State zoning controls. Maine gave its Environmental Im provement Commission veto power over commercial or in dustrial development anywhere in the State and broadened the Commission’s jurisdiction to include over 42 percent of the entire land area of the State. • California passed legislation requiring public access to beaches, lakes, and reservoirs throughout the State. New Jersey enacted land use controls over coastal tidelands, and Georgia and Maryland passed legislation protecting coastal marshlands and wetlands. • California recently adopted the preliminary plan of the Tahoe regional planning agency, a master zoning plan for the entire California-Nevada Lake Tahoe region. Accord ing to this agency, the resources of the Tahoe area can sus tain a population of 280,000 before destroying the delicate balance between the wilderness forest-watershed and the lake. But if the area is fully developed under its present zoning pattern, the agency projects a total population of 700,000. The new goal: a change in zoning to permit 220,000 people to occupy the Tahoe region— a growth of only 650,000 over the present population. • Delaware enacted a new coastal zoning law that prohibits all heavy industry within 2 miles of the seacoast. • Minnesota issued flood plain and lakeshore zoning regula tions to prevent haphazard growth injurious to the environment. 38 49 • Vermont in 1970 enacted a new land use law which au thorizes the State to control development at areas above 2,500 feet elevation, and to control all large-scale develop ment. The Vermont law requires one State to prepare a land capability plan to establish the developmental capacity of the State’s land and water resources. Several other States are considering legislation to improve their ability to regulate urbanization and land use within their borders. Some States are already moving to regulate the use of land in and around highway interchanges, major State facilities, and other key public properties. Not unexpectedly, some local units of government have strongly opposed State entry into local zoning. The American Law Institute has had under preparation for some time a model land development code that would involve State agencies in planning and controlling the use of land. The code assumes a strong role for a State land planning agency, a State land adjudicatory board, and a State or local land develop ment agency. New Communities Several States have begun to provide a framework for en couraging the development of new communities. For example: • Arizona has authorized creation of new town improvement districts which can issue special district bonds. • California has provided for planning and land assembly by redevelopment agencies in support of new communities. California’s law requires approval by the local agency for mation commission (a county-based agency supervising local government boundaries, including annexation and incorpo ration proceedings and special district formation) before redevelopment agencies may proceed to planning and land assembly for a project. • Kentucky has passed a New Communities Act authorizing nonprofit new community districts to exercise general governmental powers within a specific area in order to promote private initiative and voluntary participation in planned urbanization. T o encourage innovation and experi mentation, each new community district is exempted from all housing restrictions and building codes. 39 50 In a considerable number of States, some property tax relief is obtained by new community developers during the period of land assembly through statutory provisions establishing what is known as “ preferential farm assessment.55 This device allows land that is in the path of urbanization but still in agricul tural usage to be assessed at its agricultural value rather than at its market value. As the new community developer acquires large tracts of undeveloped farmland, he can maintain a nominal farm operation and pay taxes at the lower agricultural rate. In some States, once the land is actually converted to urban use, a rebate must be made to the local government for the tax defer ment received during the preceding years. This type of “ rollback55 requirement is not in effect in many States, however. Other Housing Legislation The States have been passing a variety of housing legisla tion relevant to National and State growth policies. This legis lation deals with industrialized housing, mobile homes, building codes, and access to housing. • Vermont and Delaware have assumed State zoning powers with regard to mobile homes and will apply such zoning requirements regardless of local regulations. • California, South Carolina, and Maryland have moved for State inspection of factory-built housing at the factory. On passing inspection, the housing components may be erected anywhere in the State, local building codes notwithstanding. • California has authorized contiguous cities or counties to create areawide housing authorities. • Rhode Island has made indirect discrimination an unlawful housing practice and Kansas has begun to implement its open housing statute. Establishment of Planning and Development Districts Over the past few years, States have moved rapidly to estab lish substate districts for purposes of planning and development. These districts are located in both metropolitan and nonmetro politan areas. Some of this State action was undertaken in selfdefense when proliferating and competing Federal programs in the late sixties were requiring the establishment of multi county districts with district boundaries varying from program to program. Office of Management and Budget Circular A-80, 40 51 later incorporated into Circular A-95, requires Federal agencies, in the absence of compelling reasons to the contrary, to respect State planning district boundaries in the conduct of Federal programs within the State. The principal responsibilities of these district organizations are comprehensive and functional planning, coordination of plan ning done by units of local goverment and other organizations within the area, technical assistance to local governments in plan ning and administration, and review and coordination of certain federally assisted projects. As of June 1971, 38 States had officially delineated State planning and development districts for all or most of their geo graphic areas. O f the 473 districts included in these 38 States, more than half already have some type of organization, generally consisting of a policy board and operating staff. Increased Financing of Urban Functions With increasing frequency States have been supplementing Federal grants to local governments. In a 1970 survey, the Ad visory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations found 35 of 50 States reporting voluntary State financial contributions to federally aided programs. Financial participation by State gov ernments occurs most often in connection with federally aided sewage treatment projects; more than half the States are partic ipating financially in municipal and county sewage treatment plant construction. Urban renewal, public housing, urban mass transportation, community action, airport development and spe cial Federal education aid programs are also drawing some State financial participation. In picking up a part or all of the nonFederal share of these programs, the States are able to afford some fiscal relief to hard pressed localities and to coordinate and establish priorities among applications from different localities. Urban Mass Transportation State legislatures have been especially active in the past 2 years with respect to urban mass transportation. Maryland, Pennsyl vania, Rhode Island, and Delaware have created departments of transportation, bringing to 15 the total number of such depart ments at the State level. Maryland established a comprehensive transportation trust fund; Hawaii is helping Honolulu develop a mass transit system; Virginia has authorized use of highway 41 52 funds for mass transit; Ohio has authorized regional transporta tion authorities to provide port and airport services; Colorado has authorized the use of up to 10 percent of the public service tax fund for assistance to localities in providing urban mass transit; and during the last 2 years seven States have authorized the creation of mass transit agencies. Financing Public Education The most expensive public service in most localities is elemen tary and secondary education, financed primarily by the local property tax. Many experts have concluded that this method of financing local education inevitably produces great disparities in the educational resources available to children in school districts of widely varying wealth. They have urged that the States assume primary responsibility for financing education to narrow or elim inate these disparities. A number of States— including New York, Maryland, Indiana, Texas, California, Michigan, and Minnesota— have undertaken studies of school finance. These studies have led to active legisla tive proposals in Michigan and Minnesota, and to legislation in Maryland by which the State has assumed the complete cost of school construction. Judicial intervention in 1971 is bound to give substantial impetus to changes in the method of financing public education throughout the Nation. The California Supreme Court, Federal courts in Minnesota and Texas, and a State court in New Jersey have held the current basis of school financing in each of those States to be unconstitutional because it amounts to a classification based on wealth, where there is no compelling interest motivating such a classification. Similar court challenges to dependence on local property taxes to finance public education are pending in other States. Modernization of Local Government States are modernizing the structure of their local governments and beginning to deal with the critical growth problems resulting from deficiencies in local government structure and finance. Some States have amended their constitutions to permit localities greater flexibility in organizing to perform governmental func 42 53 tions. Others have removed restrictions on the powers and financ ing of local governments, enabling them to proceed at their own initiative in dealing with emerging problems. • Colorado voters have approved a constitutional amendment providing county home rule and allowing the imposition of differential property tax rates for the urban and rural por tions of a county. • Michigan has enacted sweeping changes in annexation pro cedures, authorizing the State Boundary Commission to order annexation in home rule counties. These counties may initiate annexation by resolution, but the Boundary Commis sion has final authority to approve, modify, or deny the ac tions. A referendum within the area to be annexed is no longer required. • The new Illinois constitution, approved in late 1970, strengthened home rule by eliminating the longstanding rule requiring the State legislature to specifically delegate all local government powers. • Vermont and Nebraska have removed statutory limitations on local government bond offerings. • Vermont has authorized two or more municipalities to form “ union municipal districts,” with powers similar to regular municipalities. • Rhode Island, South Carolina, Washington, Texas, and Illi nois have broadened previously existing authority for inter local cooperation. Local units of government in at least twothirds of the States now have legal authority to contract with one another for the performance of governmental functions. • New York and Maine have mandated State certification of the qualifications of local property tax assessors. • Oregon has authorized the State Revenue Department to assist local governments in estimating and collecting non property taxes. • Vermont has created a State Municipal Bond Bank author ized to buy local bond issues from the proceeds of its own sales of revenue bonds; this will ease the fiscal strain that most small localities face in marketing their bonds. • Missouri has authorized charter counties to allocate func tions between the county and municipal governments. 43 54 Interstate Cooperation When growth issues cut across State lines, joint action by States often becomes necessary. At various times, States have come together on their own to deal with these issues. At other times, the Federal Government has taken a direct role in fostering cooperation among States, with the result that many interstate institutions are in reality joint ventures between the Federal Gov ernment and groups of States. There are several types of interstate, subnational organizations. Voluntary Groupings of States For several decades, Governors and other leaders of 47 States have been meeting at least once a year in four regional groups under the auspices of the Council of State Governments. The regional conferences discuss matters of common concern, pass policy resolutions, and provide a basis for the creation of inter state agreements in areas such as education and corrections. A more unique voluntary regional organization is the Federa tion of Rocky Mountain States. This is a nonprofit endeavor in volving the governments of Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, and businesses concerned with the development of the Rocky Mountain region. The federation en ables the six States and businesses in the region to communicate with one another and to more fully understand where the region is heading. Created in 1966, its expenses are supported equally by appropriations from the six States, and by over 300 private-sector members. Multistate Compacts Interstate compacts are formal agreements between State gov ernments. A 1970 compilation by the Council of State Govern ments listed 160 active compacts and at least 31 proposed com pacts spanning a wide range of governmental activity. The use of compacts is increasing; one-third of the active compacts were created during the past decade. Five compacts authorize cooperation in planning the orderly development of specified areas: • Bistate Development Agency Compact (St. Louis metro politan area, Illinois and Missouri, 1949) • Minnesota-Wisconsin Boundary Area Compact (1965) 44 55 • New England Interstate Planning Compact (1967) • Tahoe Regional Planning Compact (California and Nevada, 1968) • Delaware Valley Urban Area Compact (New Jersey and Pennsylvania, 1965). During the past several years, compacts have increasingly been used for sharing facilities and finances in areas such as correc tions, higher education, health, motor vehicle safety and regis tration, nuclear energy, and welfare. Most recent compacts have involved more than two States. Federal-Multistate Compacts Congress has expanded the powers of two interstate compacts by making them binding on Federal agencies. These are the com pacts creating the Delaware and Susquehanna River Basin Compact Commissions. Proposals for a Delaware compact began in 1925 when the city of New York made application to tap Delaware River water, but it was not until 1961 that four-State cooperation was secured. By that time, the need for management of the entire river basin con vinced Congress that a Federal-State Commission was the proper vehicle. The Susquehanna Compact, based on the Delaware ex perience, was created by Maryland, New York, and Pennsyl vania in 1967 and 1968 and ratified by Congress in 1970. Both compacts provide that no project using substantial amounts of basin waters can be undertaken unless it is included in the commission’s comprehensive plan. Subject only to an extraordinary and limited right of suspension by the President, this requirement applies alike to Federal, State, local, and pri vate projects. The result has been the creation of a single, com prehensive framework for coordinating all water resources development throughout the basin. Federal-State Commissions for Water and Economic Development Three statutes in 1965 authorized cooperation between groups of States and the Federal Government in addressing problems that cut across State lines. The Appalachian Regional Commission.— The Appalachian Regional Development Act created the Appalachian Regional 45 56 Commission “ to provide public works and economic develop ment programs and the planning and coordination needed to assist in development of the Appalachian region.” The Commis sion is composed of a Federal co-chairman and the Governor from each participating State in the Appalachian region. Con gress sets the regional boundaries, which now encompass 397 counties in 13 States. A key feature of the Commission is its investment strategy utilizing “ growth centers.” The legislation that established the Commission stipulated, “ The public investments made in the region under this act shall be concentrated in areas where there is a significant potential for future growth, and where the ex pected return on public dollars invested would be the greatest.” The growth area strategy has served as a rough priority setting device, with each State developing its own system for identify ing growth areas. “ Title V ” Commissions.—Several months after passage of the Appalachian Act, Congress passed the Public Works and Economic Development Act, title V of which authorizes the Secretary of Commerce to designate economic development re gions and “ to invite and encourage the States wholly or partially located within such regions to establish appropriate multistate regional commissions” composed of a Federal co-chairman and a member from each participating State. Amendments in 1967 and 1969 provided the title V Commissions with limited au thority to make grants and influence the pattern of economic development. Six Commissions have been established to date: Ozarks, Four Corners, New England, Upper Great Lakes, Coastal Plains, and Upper Missouri. The title V Commissions closely resemble the Appala chian Regional Commission although they have fewer powers and resources. The Commissions have sought to tailor their programs to the needs of their particular regions. Given the diversity of needs among the six regions, no one investment strategy has been adopted by all Commissions. River Basin Commissions.— Title II of the Water Resources Planning Act authorizes the President to establish river basin planning commissions on request of either the Federal inter departmental Water Resources Council or half the States in the basin. Membership consists of a chairman appointed by 46 57 the President, one member from each affected Federal agency, and one member from each State. This act followed many years of effort to create a system of water resources planning that is multipurpose and basinwide in character. Four title II Commis sions were set up in 1967— Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, Souris-Red River, and New England. The Ohio River Basins Commission came into being in January 1971. In summary, 12 new Federal-multistate instrumentalities have grown out of the three 1965 statutes: seven in the economic development field and five in the water resources area. These Federal-State Commissions differ from compacts in that they are created by Federal statute alone. In most cases, State par ticipation occurs at the request of the Governor, and legislative ratification comes indirectly through appropriations to cover the State’s share of Commission expenses. Congressional appropria tions supply most of the operating funds for the Commission. Consequently, they are primarily devices for rational izing Federal investments in a region rather than full-scale Federal-State cooperative ventures. In 1971, the President took steps to overcome some of the weaknesses of the present system of interstate development com missions by proposing a new Rural Development Revenue Shar ing Program. This program would make available to the rest of the Nation those benefits enjoyed by the Appalachian States under the Appalachian Regional Development Act; the avail ability of money to be used for a wide range of development projects, a comprehensive developmental planning process rising up from the grassroots, and the opportunity for the States volun tarily to create interstate regional commissions to handle regional problems. Rural revenue sharing would include the programs of the Appalachian Regional Commission, but would keep the Commission intact. Federal Corporations Cutting Across State Lines The only completely Federal regional body is the Tennessee Valley Authority established in May 1933, covering parts of seven States. Originally created with a broad mandate for total economic, social, and physical development of the Tennessee River Valley, T V A is now confined largely to flood control and electric power generation. 47 58 Conclusion Cooperation among States is an inevitable and important means of dealing with problems of national growth. In our fed eral system of government, State policies are the basic building blocks of national policy. The effectiveness of interstate cooperation depends on full partnership between consenting States. Several interstate efforts in recent years have been initiated and dominated by the Fed eral Government— with the inevitable result that they are not fully integrated into the State legislative, appropriation, and administrative processes. Consequently, their impact on regional development has been limited. In contrast, those interstate in stitutions arising from a felt need for cooperatioii between two or more States have tended to survive and be effective in the activ ities for which they are chartered. LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND NATIONAL GROWTH As noted earlier in this chapter, State governments have not generally chosen to exercise the very substantial powers they are given in our constitutional system for the purpose of directing growth and development. Instead, they have delegated many of their most important powers to lower levels— counties, townships, and municipalities. It is at these levels that the vast majority of governmental decisions affecting growth and devel opment are made. Below the State level, tens of thousands of governmental bodies are involved in shaping growth. For most decisions con cerning land use, these units possess the perspective needed to resolve conflicting views and carry out cogent policies. Other problems, however, do not respect political boundaries. At no point in the structure of the American federal system of government are problems of intergovernmental relations so marked, varied, and difficult as in large metropolitan areas. Within such areas, Federal, State, county, and municipal agen cies, usually supplemented by a host of special purpose units of local government, must carry on their functions in close juxtaposition, subject to an extremely complicated framework of Federal, State, and local laws and administrative regulations. Just as States have voluntarily come together to deal with common problems, local governments have often cooperated 48 59 among themselves when their mutual interests dictated it. Ex amples of such voluntary cooperation at the local level include: interjurisdictional agencies such as the Bay Area Rapid Transit District, the Detroit Council of Governments, and the Washing ton Suburban Sanitary Commission; interjurisdictional agree ments covering hot pursuit and reciprocal fire assistance; and the entire array of interjurisdictional commercial transactions such as the sale of water by one locality to another. Cooperation among the many parts of the metropolitan area is increasing— rapidly in some places and gradually in others. This emergence of metropolitan cooperation is based on many factors, but two deserve special mention. The first is the demand for better services by the residents of the area, together with the fact that it is no longer feasible, physically or fiscally, to conduct large and expensive governmental functions, such as mass transit, sewage treatment, and solid waste disposal, on a jurisdiction-byjurisdiction basis. The second is the influence of Federal policies and programs, particularly the implementation of the Intergov ernmental Cooperation Act of 1968, which provides for areawide review and comment on most applications for Federal grants-inaid. The nature and scope of emerging interlocal cooperation within the metropolitan areas is influencing National and State growth policies. Single - or Multi-Purpose Authorities One of the reasons for the growth of special districts in Amer ican government has been the spilling over of governmental functions across the boundaries of individual municipalities, cou pled with the unwillingness or inability of counties to assume responsibility for these functions. Preliminary information from the 1972 census of governments indicates that special districts grew in number just as rapidly between 1967 and 1972 as in the preceding 5-year period. The formation of a special district can add to the proliferation of local government units in metropolitan areas and make the formulation of land use, transportation, and other urban growth policies more difficult. However, the number of special districts is likely to increase until general purpose units of government begin to meet these needs more consistently or other institutional arrangements are devised. 49 60 An intermediate step between special purpose districts and multi jurisdictional general purpose governments is illustrated by the Metropolitan Council of Minneapolis-St. Paul. This coun cil, created by act of the legislature, is composed of members rep resenting metropolitan districts of substantially equal population. The council performs planning and other coordination service functions for the Twin Cities. In addition, it exercises policy and financial coordination over water, sewer, airports, and certain other single-purpose authorities within the metropolitan area. It has limited tax power— a power that sets it apart from other regional councils and makes it a limited form of metropolitan government. The State has authorized an innovative step toward sharing the commercial-industrial property tax base regardless of where in the metropolitan area the taxable property is located. Begin ning in 1972, each community’s tax base will include an as signed share of the region’s commercial-industrial base put in place after 1971. None of the existing industrial-commercial base is shared, but 40 percent of all growth beyond 1971 will be shared on a regionwide basis. All other assessments, such as those on residential property, will continue to go to the governing unit in the locality where the building is physically located. The distribu tion of the shared industrial-commercial taxes will be determined basically by population, but will be adjusted so that a commu nity will receive a larger share if its property valuation is below the metropolitan average per capita and a smaller share if its valuation is above average. In other words, the tax base is not only partially shared, but the shared proceeds are distributed in part on an equalizing basis. This approach will lessen the competition among localities to increase the industrial and commercial property within their borders. It also may help break down the barriers which have been created between central cities and their suburbs and be tween suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The new Minnesota law works entirely within the present framework of local gov ernment ; no new agency is created and no additional tax is im posed. Counties as Regional Governments The influence of county governments in urban affairs varies tremendously. The budget of Los Angeles County exceeds the 50 61 combined budgets of a dozen States, while counties in New Eng land do little more than serve as judicial and administrative dis tricts for the States. Counties in some major urban industrial States are strong and capable units of general purpose govern ment, as in New York, Maryland, California, and Virginia. In many parts of the country, county government is being modernized, and is taking on urban service functions previously performed by municipalities. This change in the role of the coun ty was made necessary by the growth of unincorporated areas around cities. When these areas acquire a sizable urbanized popu lation, the county is often called upon to provide urban services. In the last two decades, this has led to a new type of local gov ernment the “ urban county.” In function, attitude, and perform ance, the typical urban county resembles a large city. A recent survey of metropolitan counties, for example, showed that 114 of the 150 responding were responsible for planning and 82 had zoning authority. Half of these counties were administering building and housing codes, and over 80 were involved in parks and recreation. For decades city-county consolidation has been discussed by scholars and civic leaders as a way of simplifying and improving local government structure in urban areas. Under this arrange ment the government of the principal city and that of the county merge, leaving only one local government in the county (aside, perhaps, from local school districts). County consolidation has been achieved only rarely, since voters often opposed this kind of local government reorganiza tion. However, in the past few years some major city-county con solidations have been approved, including Jacksonville-Duval County, Fla.; Nashville-Davidson County, Tenn.; IndianapolisMarion County, Ind.; and the city and borough of Juneau, Alaska. The National Association of Counties reports that citycounty consolidation studies presently are underway in over 70 counties in the United States. One possible basis for mutual accommodation of the fiscal and political goals of central cities and suburbs is the “ two tier” ap proach typified by Toronto and, in a different form, by Dade County, Fla. Under this structure, most existing units of govern ment are retained for strictly local functions while some of the more costly and complicated functions are shifted to the county or other areawide government. The two-tier approach permits the retention and expansion of political power in the core city 51 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 5 62 while allowing the “ metropolitanizing” of functions which the suburbs and central city are willing to surrender to an areawide body. It also makes growth policies easier to formulate at the local level because of the greater geographic area encompassed by counties relative to their individual components. Multijurisdictional Councils At the present time, there are approximately 650 multijuris dictional planning bodies in existence, covering urban and rural areas alike. In metropolitan areas, these bodies tend to be coun cils of governments. The first metropolitan council was formed in 1954 when the supervisors of six counties in the Detroit area arranged to meet periodically to discuss common problems. Since that time, about 250 councils of government have come into existence. Outside of the metropolitan areas, these multijurisdic tional bodies usually take the form of a substate planning district discussed earlier. All of these bodies have much in common. Typically: • They encompass a specified portion of one or more States; • Their primary purpose is increasing cooperation among the local governments of the area; • They have programs for physical or human resource plan ning, which may involve review and coordination of local government programs and the provision of technical assist ance to local governments; • They have a governing body composed of locally elected officials and appointed representatives of community inter ests or the public at large; and • They are funded in part by member local governments. To an increasing extent, multijurisdictional councils are being expressly provided for in State statutes. As indicated previously, two-thirds of the States have divided themselves into substate planning districts, each with a governing body made up of repre sentatives of local governments included within the district boundary. Several States are beginning to provide financial aid to their areawide councils. Multijurisdictional councils vary greatly in the scope and vigor of their activities. Some are evolving into public areawide governments. Others have become, in effect, multipurpose au thorities or districts, such as the Twin Cities Metropolitan Coun cil. Still others are confining their activities to the mandatory 52 63 A-95 review discussed below. Future growth in the power and influence of regional councils may result from action by the State governments— as has recently occurred in Virginia, Texas, and Minnesota— or from the initiative of member local governments themselves, as illustrated by the Metropolitan Washington Coun cil of Governments and the Association of Bay Area Govern ments in the San Francisco Area. The “ A -9 5 ” Review Process.—Section 204 of the Demonstra tion Cities and Metropolitan Development Act of 1966 requires that specific types of Federal grant-in-aid applications from in dividual local governments located within standard metropolitan statistical areas be subject to review and comment by “ an areawide agency designated to perform metropolitan or regional planning for the area within which the assistance is to be used.” This statutory requirement necessitated the creation of areawide agencies where they did not already exist. The scope of the review and comment process was broadened considerably by section 401(a) of the Intergovernmental Co operation Act of 1968 which provided that “ the President shall * * * establish rules and regulations governing the formulation, evaluation, and review of Federal programs and projects hav ing a significant impact on area and community develop ment. * * *” The Office of Management and Budget, acting for the Presi dent, issued Circular A-95 on July 24, 1969 (with revisions in 1970 and 1971), covering all major Federal grants that might have a substantial impact beyond the boundaries of the applicant local jurisdiction. Grants covered include basic water and sew age facilities, outdoor recreation, highway planning and construc tion, airport planning and construction, hospital facilities, law enforcement facilities, community action programs, and over 40 others. Applications or notifications to apply receive an areawide review and a review by the State government. These reviews are conducted simultaneously, usually within a 30-day period. Section 204 has led to the creation of areawide agencies in nearly all metropolitan areas. But for many other reasons as well, the concept of interlocal cooperation has gained reasonable ac ceptance by units of general local government in the Nation’s metropolitan and rural areas. Some States are beginning to re quire reviews of State-aided local projects similar to those pro vided for under A-95. This assures that State-aided facilities and 53 64 programs are being carried on in a manner consistent with State or areawide planning. The overall results of the A-95 review process have been en couraging. Some of the review agencies have been able to play a very constructive role. For example, the review agency in the Dayton, Ohio Metropolitan Area— the Miami Valley Regional Planning Council— was able to secure agreement among the member local governments on a plan for allocating responsibility among them for developing low- and moderate-income housing. The review body for the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area (Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments) developed a model fair housing ordinance that has been adopted by several of its member governments. The Intergovernmental Cooperation Act is addressed to the relatively specific problem of assuring that major Federal pro grams in a given jurisdiction are consistent with and will not disrupt well-considered development plans for the area. It says, in effect, that Federal funds should further State and metropoli tan plans and development goals. It invites the States and metro politan areas to take the lead in developing policies and priorities which will guide the expenditure and management of all public funds— Federal, State, and local. In summary, the A-95 review process appears to be a useful instrument for increasing interlocal cooperation in metropolitan areas and for helping formulate and implement National, State, and local growth policies. 54 65 CHAPTER IV ADMINISTRATION ACTIONS TO DEAL WITH THE CHALLENGES OF GROWTH PAST FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT Federal policies have significantly shaped our Nation’s de velopment throughout its history— sometimes intentionally, sometimes inadvertently. During the 19th century, the Fed eral Government actively encouraged population settlement in the vast, and largely uninhabited interior sections of the coun try. Land grants under the Homestead Act provided incentives for private citizens to locate in the new territories. At the same time, Federal aid to the fledgling railroad industry linked devel oped and undeveloped parts of the country, facilitating the eco nomic growth of the new settlements. Federal immigration policy permitted large numbers of new citizens to come to our shores in the years prior to World War I, contributing signifi cantly to the rapid growth and development of the Nation. Other actions by the Federal Government, though less dra matic, also had a major impact on the growth of particular areas. Such actions included the location of Federal installations, the placement of Federal contracts, and the development of an early highway network. Beginning in the 1930’s, there was a general expansion of Fed eral involvement in domestic affairs. This led to a number of new Federal initiatives affecting growth and development: • The National Resources Board and its two successors repre sented a unique attempt at national planning before the effort was terminated in 1943. • The Resettlement Administration, under authority of the National Industrial Recovery Act, initiated a wide range of housing and resettlement projects across the country. • The Tennessee .Valley Authority was designed in part to accelerate the economic development of an entire region. 55 66 • Federal assistance was authorized for home financing and low-rent public housing. During the postwar era two historic pieces of legislation were enacted that addressed the two basic factors which underlie growth: national economic development and orderly commu nity development. The Full Employment Act of 1946 established the national goal of full employment for the Nation’s work force. The Housing Act of 1949 established the national goal of “ a de cent home in a suitable living environment for every American family.55 In the 19505s under President Eisenhower, a massive program of Federal assistance to highways was initiated, opening up vast suburban areas for the construction of new housing. In the central cities, the Urban Renewal program was relied on to change land use patterns. More recently, the Federal Government’s reaction to problems associated with national growth has taken the form of hundreds of new, but narrow purpose, grant programs. ADMINISTRATIVE AND PROGRAM INITIATIVES Efforts to deal more effectively with the challenges of national growth were begun by this Administration immediately upon taking office. On January 23, 1969, as one of the first official acts of his Administration, the President established an Urban Affairs Council to advise and assist “ in the development of a national urban policy, having regard both to immediate and to longrange concerns, and to priorities among them.55 Later, a Rural Affairs Council was established to assist the President in the development of policies for rural areas, and to assure that the interrelationships between rural and urban prob lems are taken into account in designing Federal programs. These Councils, and later the President’s Advisory Committee on Executive Organization, the Domestic Council, and the Office of Management and Budget, have vigorously addressed them selves to the task of making government work better in dealing with the challenges of growth. The product of these concerted efforts has been a set of forceful policies designed to : 1. Strengthen the capacity of State and local governments, to solve the problems that past growth has brought, and 56 67 to take advantage of the opportunities that future growth will bring; 2. Recast the structure of the Federal Government to make it more effective in assisting State and local governments carry out their responsibilities; and 3. Improve Federal approaches to growth problems where national interests are at stake. Underlying each of these policies is the need to make Federal programs more responsive to the people and their locally elected officials, both in terms of the goals they seek to achieve and the way they deliver Federal assistance. This is an extremely impor tant feature of the President’s policy toward growth. Where the Administration has been able to move ahead with its policies toward national growth under existing law, it has done so. Where new authority is needed to implement its poli cies, the Administration has taken the lead in drafting and work ing for passage of appropriate legislation. This chapter describes Administration actions undertaken to date to promote more balanced and orderly growth. The fol lowing chapter makes recommendations for additional legisla tion which is needed to strengthen our ability as a Nation to meet the challenges of growth. Strengthening the Federal System The Administration has acted to facilitate delivery of Federal services and to improve communications among State, local, and Federal officials. These include: • Decentralization of decisionmaking authority in numerous Federal grant programs to bring administration of these pro grams closer to the people they serve. • Reduction of redtape and processing time within the Fed eral categorical grant system, through a rationalization of consistency procedures, joint funding simplification, inter governmental cooperation, grant consolidation, and gen erally improved coordination. • Establishment of uniform regional boundaries for Federal domestic agencies and increasing emphasis on Federal Re gional Councils. 57 68 • Establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency to consolidate various Federal programs for protecting the environment. Rural Development The Administration has taken a number of steps to improve our rural development programs and has substantially increased program funding. For example, the funding of principal rural development programs in the Department of Agriculture this year— $2.8 billion— is more than four times that of fiscal year 1961 and twice that of fiscal year 1969. All told, 29 of the 34 rural development programs in that Department have been expanded since 1969. In addition, the Department of Housing and Urban Develop ment has nearly tripled its grants for nonmetropolitan planning districts since 1969. In the last fiscal year, 155 districts received $3.4 million in grants. Rural housing assistance, with an emphasis on low- and moderate-income families, has reached a record level of $1.6 billion under the Farmers Home Administration pro gram— more than triple the 1969 level. Transportation Improved urban transportation is an important contributing factor to an evolving national growth policy. During the past 2 years, expanded programs with environmental safeguards have been initiated to improve urban transportation. By enacting the Urban Mass Transportation Assistance Act of 1970, Congress supported the Administration’s proposal to provide substantial Federal funds in support of mass transportation— $3.1 billion for the first 5 years of the program. Between 1971 and 1973, the Urban Mass Transportation Administration will have committed over $2 billion for mass transit, including almost $1.7 billion for capital improvements. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970 also authorized new programs to meet the need for balanced transportation in urban areas, including fringe and corridor parking, airport and waterport access, and a Federal-aid urban system. The urban system involves local officials, in cooperation with State highway departments, in the designation of arterials for Federal aid. This program provides a special source of funds for 58 69 improving a large number of major roadways and allows greater flexibility in the use of highway programs to provide for balanced transportation. Another important feature of the 1970 legislation is the Urban Highway Public Transit Program, which permits the States to increase the efficiency of highways in transporting people rather than cars. Projects now underway include the exclusive bus lane on the Shirley Highway in northern Virginia, and similar projects in Los Angeles, northern New Jersey, Seattle, Milwaukee, Boston, and San Juan, P.R. National Environmental Policy Act Implementation The Administration has implemented the National Environ mental Policy Act to assure that the growth implications of po tential Federal and federally assisted activities are taken into account before final decisions on them are made. Section 102 (2) (C ) of the act requires that Federal agencies issue for public comment detailed statements analyzing the environmental im pact of proposed actions. Under guidelines set by the President’s Council on Environmental Quality, agencies are required to assess the primary and secondary effects of a proposed action— such as a new highway, airport, or dam— on an area’s environ ment and growth patterns. This process has enhanced citizens’ capacity to play a constructive role in the debate over growth policy. Use of Federal Land An important part of national growth policy will involve future decisions on the use of federally owned land— both traditional “ public domain” land and acquired property that becomes sur plus. Congress is now considering recommendations by the Public Land Law Review Commission to permit public lands to be more effectively used for future growth. This Administration has also proposed legislation that will make it easier to transfer surplus Federal lands for use as new communities. The Property Review Board, established by President Nixon, is overseeing a review of the Government’s holdings by Federal agencies to identify un needed property, and is seeking to insure that Federal property is used as effectively as possible. 59 70 Housing This Administration has sought to increase the housing op portunities of all Americans. Housing production and assistance, especially for low- and moderate-income families, has been great ly expanded over the past 3 years to the highest levels in our his tory. In 1971, total housing starts neared 2.1 million units, almost 25 percent of which were for low- and moderate-income fam ilies under Federal housing programs providing direct finan cial assistance. Programs and policies also have been implement ed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Bureau of Standards to encourage the more effi cient production of housing throughout the country. Toward this objective, these agencies have worked closely with the States through the National Conference of States on Building Codes and Standards. Racial barriers have prevented minority groups from their full share of the benefits from national growth. The Presidential statement on equal housing opportunity of June 11, 1971, com mitted the Federal Government to work with State and local governments in expanding the freedom and the opportunity for all Americans to obtain adequate housing regardless of race. N ew Community Assistance As of December 31, 1971, the Federal New Communities pro gram had agreed to help private developers undertake the de velopment of seven new population centers, with several more under consideration. These centers will serve the objective of orderly growth within metropolitan areas by offering the promise of innovative, well-planned development and an attractive liv ing and working environment. It is expected that these new cen ters will set a standard of excellence in planning, conservation, housing balance, education, health, and community participa tion. All of the approved projects have strong programs for equal opportunity in housing and employment, and will contain a sub stantial amount of housing for persons of low and moderate in come. Planning Requirements Many Federal programs require planning at the State, areawide, and local levels as a prerequisite for Federal grants. 60 71 At present, efforts are being made within the executive branch to improve and integrate planning requirements among Federal agencies. For example, within the last year the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have agreed to integrate their water and waste management planning requirements. These agencies are now engaged in efforts to develop unified water and waste manage ment planning requirements with the Economic Development Administration and the Farmers Home Administration. The Department of Transportation presently has metropol itan-based pilot projects underway in each of the 10 Federal regions to integrate highway, airport, and mass transportation planning. A—95 Reviews One of the principal means for States and local governments to control development within their borders is through Office of Management and Budget Circular A-95, first issued by this Administration. This circular provides an opportunity for States and areawide agencies to review and comment on projects pro posed for funding under a variety of Federal programs. In this way, it provides State and local governments with a potentially powerful instrument for coordinating growth. Federal Property Insurance Programs Urban crime, the riots of the 1960’s, and the migration of many middle-income families out of the central city have forced many central city businesses— especially small businesses— to relocate. The exodus of such businesses and the resulting erosion of prop erty tax bases have been key factors in the decline of central cities. In inner city areas, basic crime and riot insurance protection often is not available. Since lending institutions require borrow ers to have basic property insurance, existing businesses have found it difficult to obtain financing for modernization while new businesses have had difficulty obtaining startup funds. In order to improve property insurance protection for central city businesses and homeowners, the Federal Insurance Admin istration has implemented two property insurance programs authorized by the Urban Property Protection and Reinsurance Act of 1968, as amended in 1970. 61 72 Under the first program, riot reinsurance protection is provided to primary insurers that cooperate in State FAIR plans (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements). These plans are designed to give urban residents and property owners in 26 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico access to basic fire, extended coverage, and vandalism and malicious mischief insurance. Under the second program, which became effective on August 1, 1971, the FI A provides direct crime insurance policies at affordable rates covering losses from burglary, robbery, and theft (with appropriate deductible provisions and requirements for reasonable protective and loss-preventive measures and devices) in nine States and the District of Columbia. More than $20 billion of basic property insurance has been provided to over 1 million urban area residents and property owners through FAIR plans. The new crime insurance program has already provided more than 2,000 direct crime insurance policies. Planned Variations On July 29, 1971, 20 existing model cities were selected to par ticipate in a planned variation demonstration designed to test some of the concepts of urban community development revenue sharing. O f the 20 cities selected for this demonstration, 16 are receiving additional funds to implement a citywide Model Cities program with only the minimum Federal control required by statute and with a procedure to enable the local chief executive to coordinate Federal resources available under programs that affect his city. The other four cities are participating only in the procedure for chief executive review and comment on Federal programs. A total of $79.5 million in additional Model Cities funds will be available to these 20 cities in fiscal year 1972. Although planned variations focuses only on the Model Cities program, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, the Office of Economic Opportunity, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other agencies will im plement, to the extent possible, the minimum control and chief executive review and comment procedures in their categorical grant programs in the 20 cities. This implementation will broaden the citywide Model Cities program into a truly compre 62 73 hensive method for the city’s chief executive to use in approach ing the community development problems of the city. Annual Arrangements Prior to the introduction of revenue sharing, an effort is being made to fit Federal categorical aids into locally designed strat egies for total community development. Annual arrangements between the Department of Housing and Urban Development and a number of localities are being developed to assure coordi nation of grant programs and to provide a standard for evaluat ing specific project applications. This approach seeks to demon strate that, given a realistic forecast of Federal funding, communities will plan for community development in an effective manner. Project selection criteria have been or are being developed for various community development grant programs. These criteria will help localities identify projects that are likely to be funded for inclusion in their annual arrangement proposals. Property Tax Reform During the period from 1960 to 1970, the burden of the resi dential property tax more than doubled, from $15 to $34 billion. As a regressive levy, the residential property tax falls most heavily on low-income families, senior citizens, families with fixed incomes, and farmers. Its inequity is compounded by a myriad of assessment formulas. The bulk of public education support comes from the local property tax. However, in a series of recent court decisions, this tax has been held to be a violation of the constitutional guarantee of equal protection because it makes the quality of a child’s ed ucation dependent upon the assessed value of property in his school district. In 1970, anticipating this crisis, President Nixon appointed a Commission on School Finance to investigate the nature of the problem and recommend solutions. Its report will be transmitted early in March 1972. The Departments of Health, Education, and Welfare and the Treasury have been asked to examine the problem as well. In addition, the President has called upon the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, a bi 63 74 partisan panel including Members of the Congress, Governors, mayors, and county officials, to study the feasibility of replacing the residential school property tax with a Federal Value Added Tax. Areas of special concentration will include the scope of the taxable base, the optimum income tax credit to avoid regressivity, renter relief, and the maintenance of local control. 64 75 CHAPTER V ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE CONGRESS As the findings of this report make clear, the Nation’s growth is shaped by countless decisions made by individuals and firms seeking to fulfill their own objectives. Few of these decisions, individually, take on national importance. The vast majority of them, in fact, have significance only within a single local juris diction, or at most, within a single State. Thus, it is all but certain that future problems of growth will be met at these levels, regard less of any attempts to control the growth process by the Federal Government. During the 1960’s , the Federal Government’s reaction to problems associated with national growth took the form of hundreds of new, but narrow purpose, grant programs. These programs have sometimes achieved noteworthy successes in individual localities. Often, however, they have not. In many instances, categorical grants have compounded the problems of growth and development which they were designed to ameliorate. The phenomenon known as “ planner’s blight” , often a feature of urban renewal, provides a good example of the kind of un anticipated and undesirable consequences that can result from well-intentioned Federal programs. In sum, the plethora of narrow categorical programs has: • Fragmented control at the local level, by working through semiautonomous local agencies operating independently of elected officials; • Fragmented local thinking and innovation by virtually requiring local officials to approach their community prob lems on a project-by-project basis; • Wasted local talent by subjecting local officials to the timeconsuming requirements of an aid system which is fraught with redtape; 65 76 • Substituted the priorities of Federal civil servants for those of the people’s elected State and local officials; and • Frustrated State and local officials who often find themselves with little opportunity for developing and implementing the solutions to public problems of which they are capable. It is clear that the answer to growth will not be found in a pro liferation of new Federal categorical programs, enacted without forethought as to the counterforces which, in time, they may set in motion and without heed to their fiscal consequences. LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES Part of the task before us involves the eradication of outmoded, duplicative, and often counterproductive governmental pro grams, together with the cumbersome and inefficient structures administering them. But this is not enough. More importantly, we must design programs and structures that can respond swiftly, effectively, and responsively to growth problems and opportuni ties. In response to this challenge, and in accordance with section 702 of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1970, the Administration recommends the enactment of the following pro posals during the second session of the 92d Congress. Government Reorganization One of the President’s most important recommendations con cerning national growth involves the most comprehensive reform in the structure of the Federal Government ever proposed. Enactment of legislation proposed by the Administration to establish a Department of Community Development would bring to one Federal entity the responsibility for administering scores of rural and urban assistance programs now scattered through half a dozen departments and agencies. This reform would have a profoundly favorable impact on the orderly de velopment of our Nation, and would permit a more balanced use of our resources for decades to come. The problems of community development in rural, urban, and suburban communities are closely interrelated. Indeed, the economic, physical, and social forces that have contributed to the stagnation and decline of rural communities, have also intensified the crowding— sometimes followed by abandonment— of slum areas in central cities and the often chaotic development of sub 66 77 urban and outlying areas. What is presently lacking is an entity at the Federal level capable of providing community develop ment assistance in a way that responds to mutually dependent rural, urban, and suburban problems. The administration of community development programs is now hopelessly fragmented. Some community development needs of urban and rural America, including housing, water and sewer facilities, and open space, are served by the Department of Hous ing and Urban Development. At the same time, rural community development needs in the area of housing, water and waste dis posal facilities, and electrification are served by the Farmers Home Administration and the Rural Electrification Administra tion of the Department of Agriculture. Certain other physical needs of economically underdeveloped areas, largely rural or semirural, are served by the Economic Development Adminis tration of the Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, the De partment of Transportation administers such significant com munity development-related programs as the Federal Highway Program and the Urban Mass Transportation Program. Finally, the Community Action Program is administered by the Office of Economic Opportunity. The proposed Department of Community Development would have responsibility for administering all of the community de velopment programs noted above. It would be an institution at the highest level of the Federal Government responsible for as suring that Federal programs respond to closely related urban, rural, and suburban problems in a balanced manner, providing a choice of attractive economic and social environments for our people. In addition to strengthening the capacity of the Federal Gov ernment to deal with problems of national growth, the creation of a Department of Community Development would bring sub stantial benefits to local officials. The high degree of decentraliza tion contemplated for the field structure of the Department, together with the broader range of community development pro grams earmarked for it, would enable local officials to secure advice and assistance at one nearby Federal office. Revenue Sharing State and local governments are best able to make specific decisions about land use, the location of transportation and com- 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 67 1 -- 6 78 munity facilities, the delivery of public services, and environ mental protection that are responsive to the needs of affected citizens. However, if these governments are to be effective in shaping national growth, they must be strengthened. The President’s proposals for sharing Federal revenues with State and local governments are therefore of critical importance. Together, general and special revenue sharing would provide these governments with an annual total of $17.6 billion, of which nearly $6.6 billion would be new money over and above what States and localities are now receiving. G e n e ra I R ev en u e Sharing The unrestricted return of funds to State and local units of government under general revenue sharing, along with the fund ing certainty inherent in the program, would significantly in crease State and local capacity to deal with critical local prob lems. S pecia l R e ve n u e Sharing The special revenue sharing programs do not require the sub mission of plans to the Federal Government for Federal approval. However, they do require that a statewide planning process be developed which involves the elected officials of the general pur pose units of government, and thus is responsive to the particular programmatic and institutional needs of each individual State. Urban Community Development Revenue Sharing.— In his 1971 message on urban community development revenue shar ing, the President said: “ The result of * * * fragmented and inflexible grant programs has been a highly irrational pattern of development in many communities. Rather than focusing and concentrating resources in a coordinated assault on a common problem, the categorical grant system works to divide and scatter these resources and severely diminish their impact.55 Urban community development revenue sharing seeks to cor rect these serious deficiencies. Under this program, funds now channeled to communities through existing categorical grant programs— Urban Renewal, Model Cities, Neighborhood Facili ties, Open Space, and Rehabilitation Loans— would be distrib uted on a formula basis directly to communities throughout the Nation. These communities would be able to use Federal devel 68 79 opment assistance on the basis of their own choices, their own needs, and their own priorities. Moreover, they would be able to plan and implement longer term programs dealing with growth and development, since urban revenue sharing would make the amount of Federal community development assistance a locality could expect to receive each year more predictable. Transportation Revenue Sharing.— The President has also proposed a new program of transportation special revenue shar ing that would consolidate the major Federal transportation assistance grants, except the Interstate Highway Program, into two elements: a fund for general transportation activities of $2.2 billion, and a fund for mass transit capital investment of $635 million. The funds in the general transportation element would be allocated to the States on a formula basis, with the provision that a substantial percentage be passed through to local units of government. Ten percent of the general transportation element would be retained for direct allocation by the Secretary of Trans portation. This transportation assistance is now made available through 10 narrow-purpose categorical grant programs that severely limit local initiative and the opportunity for exercising a balanced approach to transportation. By placing responsibility for develop ment decisions in the hands of State and local officials responsive to local needs and trends, transportation revenue sharing would make it far easier to plan ahead for orderly growth at the State and community level. Education Revenue Sharing.— Education revenue sharing would bring together more than 30 major Office of Education programs, representing approximately $3.2 billion in grants. In so doing, it would revitalize the relationship between the Federal Government and State and local governments, stimulating crea tivity and new initiatives by those responsible for operating local schools. These funds would provide support for educational activities in broad areas where there are strong national interests in strengthening school programs. The national priority areas in cluded are compensatory education for the disadvantaged, edu cation of children afflicted by handicapping conditions, voca tional education, assistance to schools in areas affected by Federal activities, and the provision of supporting services. 69 80 Rural Community Development Revenue Sharing.— Under the President’s proposal for rural community development reve nue sharing, 11 existing aid programs would be included in a new $1.1 billion revenue sharing package to be allocated among the States by formula. No State would receive less money than it receives under existing arrangements. The 11 agricultural and economic development programs to be replaced include, among others, Resource Conservation and Developmental Program, Tree Planting Assistance, Rural Water and Waste Disposal Facilities, and Economic Development Assistance (except for Indians). This proposal would help State and local governments to slow the outmigration that has made it so hard to build a more diversified economy and a more vigorous community life in rural areas. Expanded Rural Credit On February 1, 1972, the President proposed a $1.3 billion pro gram of rural development credit to create a new credit fund for loans, loan insurance and guarantees to stimulate business expan sion, job development, and the construction of needed community utilities and facilities in rural areas. This program would com plement the proposed rural community development revenue sharing. It would require the Secretary of Agriculture to make insured loan and loan guarantee allocations to the States totaling $1,040 million, to be used under the direction of the Governors and in accordance with State rural development plans. The amount of guarantee authorization going to each State would be determined by the rural revenue sharing formula, which is based upon rural population, rural per capita income compared to the national average, and relative population change. O f the pro posed loan program, 20 percent would be administered by the Secretary of Agriculture. Sixty-five percent of the loans would be for businesses that are in a position to expand employment in rural areas but are unable to obtain credit elsewhere, and 35 per cent of the loans would be for community projects. At least 75 percent would be guaranteed by the Federal Government, but originated and serviced by private banks and other lenders. The Federal guarantee would cover 90 percent of the loan, to insure retention of economic interest by the private lender. 70 81 The proposed companion programs of rural development revenue sharing and rural development credit would constitute a major new thrust toward coping with the problems of de clining job opportunities and inadequate community facilities in rural areas. Planning and Management Assistance Money is not the only resource needed to meet the challenges of growth. Effective governmental institutions staffed with capable officials are needed to put this money to effective use. The Presi dent, therefore, has proposed a new planning and management program designed to help State and local elected officials manage their resources to achieve local— as well as certain national— objectives. This program significantly complements all the rev enue sharing initiatives of this Administration. Planning and management assistance would strengthen the ability of State and local governments to make decisions and to implement those decisions successfully: It would also provide new opportunities for elected chief executives at all levels of government to improve management and evaluation techniques. And it would enable States to coordinate all aspects of urban and rural development. The planning and management proposal would offer financial assistance, without any matching requirement, to Governors, mayors, and county executives to aid them in further develop ing their executive management capabilities. Examples of the activities that would be assisted include the development of better budgetary procedures, administrative reorganization programs, modem information systems, improved personnel recruiting tech niques, and other activities that will help State and local officials better handle their executive responsibilities. National Land Use Policy Early in 1971, as part of his environmental program, the Presi dent proposed a national land use policy program, with important implications for growth and development. This proposal would encourage States to assume responsibility for dealing with de velopment decisions that have a significant land use impact. To be eligible for Federal assistance under the program, States would be required to have a method of control over areas of crit ical environmental concern (the coastal zone, shorelands of major rivers and lakes, scenic and historic districts, etc.), areas impacted 71 82 by key facilities (the environs of major airports, highway inter changes, and parks), and large-scale development of more than local significance. The bill would also encourage States to develop a method for insuring developments of regional benefit. In a message transmitted to the Congress earlier this year, the President announced that he would offer amendments to his original land use policy bill to require States, as part of their land use programs, to control the siting of major transportation facili ties, and to impose sanctions on any State that does not establish an adequate land use program. The revised legislation would promote more orderly develop ment of urban areas, and extend governmental protection to areas of critical environmental concern. Our tradition of vesting autonomy in cities and other local governments is still valid where purely local matters are involved. The vast majority of land use decisions are of this type. However, many decisions affecting national growth have effects that go well beyond the boundaries of a single local jurisdiction. These decisions require a broader perspective— the kind of perspective that State governments possess. Consequently, the Administra tion’s national land use policy proposal encourages States to act when land use questions of more than local significance are at stake. Powerplanf Siting The President’s proposed Powerplant Siting Act also would broaden the process for appraising key decisions about growth. This measure would require the Nation’s electric utilities to un dertake long-range planning and to prepare and publish general plans for their system expansions at least 10 years in advance of construction. Each State would have a decisionmaking body to review alternatives in order to assure the selection of optimum sites for powerplants and large transmission lines and the in clusion of adequate environmental safeguards. Under the bill, the Federal Government would issue guidelines controlling these decisionmaking bodies, and would actually establish the agencies in those cases where a State failed to act. Powerplant site loca tions would have to be approved no later than 5 years prior to construction, and only after the views of affected officials and citizens had been fully aired in public hearings. The decision of the State or regional powerplant siting body would be conclu 72 83 sive on all matters of State or local law and would thus consoli date the various approvals now required at the State and local level. Tax Policy To Conserve Natural and Cultural Values One important element in the proper planning of new urban development is the protection of natural and historic values. Coastal wetlands provide nourishment and habitat to a variety of fish and wildlife, and they cannot be drained without harming the ecology. In his 1972 environmental message to the Congress, the President proposed far-reaching amendments to the Federal tax laws designed to discourage commercial and industrial de velopment in coastal wetlands. The proposed amendments would deny certain favorable tax benefits, including accelerated depre ciation, to developers of coastal wetlands. The President also proposed to end the current bias in the tax laws favoring the demolition and replacement of buildings by providing more favorable depreciation allowances for new struc tures than for rehabilitated buildings. New provisions improving the tax treatment available to owners of historic buildings were also proposed. These proposed initiatives are designed to assure that new growth and development does not occur at the expense of significant natural and cultural resources. Welfare Reform In August 1969, the President proposed the most sweeping re form of welfare programs in nearly four decades. The House of Representatives has approved the measure twice, and it now awaits Senate action. The Administration’s welfare reform would provide national standards for eligibility and payments, benefits to the working poor, strong work incentives and requirements, and high stand ards of program administration and integrity. Aside from its far-reaching effects in the area of basic income support, this measure would have important implications for eco nomic growth and development. The nationwide benefit stand ards in the welfare reform proposal are likely to provide special impetus for growth in the South and other areas characterized by low income and relatively low payments under current welfare systems. Additional child care and job training opportunities and 73 84 200,000 public service jobs would contribute to economic ad vance throughout the Nation. SUMMARY Progress toward enactment of many of these legislative pro posals— and especially toward reorganization of the executive branch— has been discouragingly slow. Each of them, however, serves important objectives of the Housing and Urban Develop ment Act of 1970. Together, they can enable government to respond swiftly and effectively to growth problems and opportu nities. The Administration recommends their enactment during this session of Congress. 74 85 Mr. A s h l e y . At this time I want to thank Congressman Barrett, the chairman of this Housing Subcommittee, for asking me to undertake and chair these hearings. His support for the urban growth policy provisions of the 1970 Housing Act was invaluable, and these hearings testify to his continuing strong interest in the need for a comprehensive national growth strategy. Next, I want to announce two changes in this week’s schedule of wit nesses. On Wednesday, we had expected to have with us the chancellor of the University of Maryland, Dr. Charles E. Bishop. Dr. Bishop cannot be with us at that time, and we will hear instead from Mr. Roy Drachman, president of the Urban Land Institute. Also, John Gronouski, dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, cannot be with us on Wednesday afternoon, and will file a statement with the subcommittee instead. In addition to this week’s hearings, wTe have asked a number of out standing individuals to submit statements to the subcommittee. These statements will be published, along with the hearing record, late this summer. Organizations or individuals who wish to submit statements should contact the Housing Subcommittee staff. Before hearing our witnesses this morning, I would like to state what we conceive to be the purposes of these hearings. There is now fairly widespread agreement on the need for develop ing a national growth strategy. The Congress’ enactment of the 1970 growth policy provisions and the President’s first growth report make that abundantly clear. What is not clear, however, is the question of primary responsibility for the development of such a policy. Title V II directs the President to take the leadership in developing a policy which “ shall serve as a guide in making specific decisions at the national level which affect the pattern of urban growth and shall provide a framework for de velopment of interstate, State, and local growth and stabilization pol icy.” It does not ask the President to develop a “master plan” or a “sin gle comprehensive national growth policy for the United States.” So one purpose of these hearings is to more clearly spell out the actions the Federal Government can and should take in developing policy rec ommendations in this area. A second purpose is to obtain the views of outstanding individuals with respect to the various substantive elements that rational growth policies should involve, and their relative importance. Tax and em ployment policies, land use and new community development, and government organization are only a few of the needed elements. We need now to begin consideration of those specific policies that will most effectively move us forward in this area. Our witnesses this morning are Mr. Arthur Davis, vice president of the Conservation Foundation, and Mayor Norman Y. Mineta, of San Jose, Calif., on behalf of the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Na tional League of Cities. Mr. Davis has had long experience with prob lems of urban growth and development, most recently as Director of the Office of Resources Development and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Metropolitan Development at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. At the Conservation Foundation, Mr. Davis is re sponsible for directing and coordinating all foundation programs for this outstanding institution. 86 Mayor Mineta was recently elected to his position after a very force ful campaign in which he emphasized the need for curbing the grow ing urban sprawl in the San Jose metropolitan area. He is very active in both State and national organizations dealing with municipal matters, and serves on the U.S. Conference of Mayors legislative action committee. Gentlemen, w^e are very happy to have you with us, We will start with Mr. Davis. STATEMENT OF ARTHUR A. DAVIS, VICE PRESIDENT FOR OPERA TIONS OP THE CONSERVATION FOUNDATION, WASHINGTON, D.C. Mr. D a vis. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have a statement that I have submitted for the record. With your permission I will just hit the highlights of it rather than reading all of it. Mr. A s h l e y . Without objection, the full statement of Mr. Davis will appear in the record. Mr. D a vis. Thank you. We are most pleased to talk to you today about national growth policy because we believe few issues are more basic to our national future, and none is in greater need of full under standing b}^ the American people. There are at least three needs: First, for facts, for analysis, and for a clear understanding of the re spective costs and benefits of the growth choices that remain open to us. Second, we need full airing of all points of view. Finally, and most pressing of all, is the need for vigorous, imaginative, effective public leadership in opening up visions of how this country may look and function—and feel—in the years around the corner. In our view, the “ Report on National Growth 1972” does not address these issues adequately. Thus, congressional review is particularly important. We acknowledge that preparation of this first biennial growth report was a difficult and pioneering task. But we are disap pointed that it fails almost entirely to confront some of the basic issues. Moreover, it represents a step backward in at least two respects. First, the report assumes, without examination, that growth will continue to be a primary objective of national policy; its concern is only that such growth be balanced and orderly. It does not address the question, “ should there be growth,” or how much. By taking this position, it ignores completely the contemporary debate about rela tionships between population, gross national product, environmental quality, and the quality of life. Consequently, it evades the basic issue of whether both our population and economy should be encouraged to continue to grow. Its chief article of faith seems to be merely that “ more is better.” Second, the report sees no prospect for developing a general na tional growth strategy in less than a generation. And it cautions that, even then, the opportunities for positive policies must be limited if diversity, flexibility, and freedom of personal choice are to be pro tected. We are in full agreement, of course, with the need for protect ing individual rights and the democratic process; but continued mind less growth will, in fact, narrow our choices, reduce diversity, and limit personal freedoms. I think it’s important to remember, too, that pol icy is what’s happening now. And in that sense, we have a national growth policy, if largely by default. This “ policy” is the cumulative 87 effect of existing programs and regulations that, taken together, exert a most profound influence on our growth. For example, consider the growth policy that is formed by the following: Tax incentives or disincentives (capital gains, amortization schedules) ; Housing policies and programs; National transportation programs (Federal aid to highways, as sistance to airports, and grants and loans for mass transit); Energy consumption policies; Federal contract conditions and procedures; and The 200-odd Federal grant and loan programs. The question, then, is not whether we should have a growth policy. We have one, fragmented, disparate, conflicting, and inadequate as it is. The real questions are whether this aggregate constitutes the policy we want; and if not, what do we want; and then, directing the velocity and location of growth: how much, what kind, where, and for whose benefit? It is probably fair to say that there is substantial agreement on the major goals and objectives of a national growth policy. For example, nearly all experts speak to the need fo r : Efficient use of land to avoid wasteful and unattractive suburban sprawl; Conscious efforts to direct growth where it can be accommodated environmentally and would be advantageous socially and economi cally, and to discourage growth where such tests could not be met; Improved delivery of public services; Restoring central cities as major driving forces in our society; Revitalizing rural communities; Meeting national housing needs, especially the need for low- and moderate-income housing; Preserving maximum freedom of individual choice and diversity of opportunity. Others could be added but I think these are the sig nificant elements that are emphasized. None of these goals is beyond reach. But their attainment depends upon a public will energized at the national level by strong leadership in both the Congress and in the executive branch. In particular, two basic policy issues will need to be faced—population increase, and economic growth. I think it is fair to say that in the view of the conservationists and environmentalists, population stabilization is a pervasive and basic requirement if man is to continue to live in reasonable balance with his environment. A national policy of moving toward population stabilization, as recommended in the recent report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, is clearly in the best interests of our country. We hope that this landmark report and its useful recommendations will be given the full hearing and thoughtful consideration it merits. I might add that the small section in the report entitled “ risks and choices” is particularly well done, I think, and speaks eloquently and sanely to available environmental alternatives. With respect to economic growth, I would like to lay at rest the stereotype of conservationists as no-growth advocates more concerned with trees than with people. We are, indeed, concerned with trees, 88 and with land use, water quality, air pollution, and energy require ments as well. But not in some adversary fashion with respect to the human condition. Some of my best friends are people. Rather, con servationists see environmental factors as important determinants of the human condition, as well as the real absolutes, the final boundaries to growth. We caution that there are finite limits to the amount and kind of pollutants that air, water, and land can absorb and still remain functional. We point to the fragile interdependencies of natural sys tems, and their limited capacity to recover when man’s actions unduly imbalance these relationships. But the basic concern is not that we’re about to run out of resource commodities. With few exceptions, we are not even close. Intelligent application of technology, further research, and actions to halt waste and to husband our resources—as in the conservation of energy, for example—can assure that the human species will be around for a long time. As a species, wTe can probably survive a lot more crowding, more congestion, and more pollution. But I would hope that simple survival is not our major goal; that the quality and productivity of our lives are the yardsticks of real importance. We need not settle for an environment that is poor but not poisonous, or for cities that sur vive without serving. Yet such could be the result if we content our selves with the view that growth is good, so long as it is balanced and orderly. An environmental perspective may be particularly helpful in formu lating the land-use element of a national growth policy. We have already achieved the understanding that strategically located urban land is in limited supply—an understanding reached first by specu lators and developers, and much later by Government. There are indi cations, also, that we are ready to acknowledge land as a resource as well as a commodity. We understand the need to hold certain lands free from development—stream valleys, steep slopes, salt marshes and other estuarine areas, and lands valuable for water recharge purposes. Land-use legislation proposed by the administration would require identifying areas of great environmental value or fragility, as well as those in short supply. At the State level and at local levels there are beginning moves in the direction of such recognitions. Vermont has asserted authority over all mountain land development at elevations above 2,500 feet. Delaware has closed its shoreline to further develop ment by the kinds of industries that are the worst polluters, and Ha waii has instituted statewide land zoning. I don’t suggest that all of these measures are good or even appropriate. But I do suggest that they are instances of awakened understanding of the need for hus banding what in earlier times was regarded as a limitless commod ity. At the regional scale, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission is a unique example of the progress to be made when the people of a metropolitan area realize the need to con trol use of a priceless environmental asset. A number of other com munities have acted to limit growth or slow development out of a new concern for environmental quality. Sewer moratoriums and refusals to grant additional building permits in Virginia, Florida, California, and elsewhere are evidence of a new concern about the desirability of continued growth. 89 These kinds of efforts have been viewed—often with justification— as protective and defensive actions to keep suburbs green and tidy, unmarked and beyond reach of downtown problems. The environ mentalist has been tagged as an elitist, concerned more with protect ing the status quo, or natural resources, than with the human condi tion. I submit only that the responsible ecological view recognizes that social well-being and sound environmental management cannot be achieved independently of one another. It is true, of course, that the whole thrust of environmental protec tion depends upon limiting, directing, and better managing the use of natural resources. This is not a negative concern, but rather a realistic and constructive course of action. Properly employed, conservation principles can be a most positive and useful construct in a national growth strategy. One of the principal problems in developing such a strategy has always been the difficulty of establishing limits that would help answer such questions as how much growth, how fast, and where. Why, for example, should we not permit the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas to grow together? Loss of a sense of community is often mentioned, and a reduction of amenities. Prob ably so, but hard to document, and harder still to quantify. The effi ciency argument—namely, that leapfrogging subdivisions and ex tended commuting ranges increase public and social costs—is easier to demonstrate. Even then, it is difficult to develop the kind of evidence needed to draw firm boundaries. Awareness of environmental limits may help. If growth is shaped by the environment, rather than the other way around, a major step is made toward supplying the sense of dimension so vital to a viable national growth policy. If one adds an appreci ation of the human equities involved, and a concern for efficiency of public investment, the framework of a viable, positive national growth policy begins to emerge. The Conservation Foundation, some years ago, undertook with sup port from the Ford Foundation a series of demonstrations to show how environmental planning could help resolve land use conflicts. As you know, these sometimes become bloody collisions where de velopment of land for urban purposes and the environmental quality of the resource itself come into sharp confrontation. For example, at Rookery Bay, on Florida’s west coast, the National Audubon Society owns and administers a valuable 4,000-acre sanctu ary. The marine waters of the area are rich in plant and animal life, and provide a key nursery and feeding, ground for sport and com mercial fishes. The sanctuary’s upland ponds provide the only sig nificant waterfowl habitat in the area. And the area provides sig nificant outdoor recreation opportunities. Surrounding the sanctuary are privately owned lands held for resi dential and urban development. Can such development go forward in a way that will realize reasonable profits to the landowners, yet not permit uncontrolled drainage and pollution to flow into the sanctu ary and destroy it ? We don’t have all the answers, but there seems room for guarded optimism. There are trade-offs that need to be reached. Develop ment and construction work will need to be modified in certain ways— 90 to prevent dredging and filling of the bay itself, for example—and compromises reached on density of development. But benefits from these steps will flow both ways. For not only will the sanctuary be safeguarded, but the value of surrounding lands will be enhanced. Lack of adequate data can be a major stumbling block. We needed information on water temperature, salinity, turbidity, changes in plant and animal life, and many other kinds of data to tell us what sorts of physical and biological changes were brought about by en vironmental manipulation. We found that with a baseline of data at the outset, we were better equipped to understand the reasons for environmental change and perhaps to prevent repetition if such change was harmful. At Bolinas Lagoon, in Marin County, Calif., and along the Georgia coast, we have undertaken similar studies. I am leaving copies of them here for the information of the committee. I simply suggest that this approach to determining environmental limits, and then developing patterns of growth and settlement that can fit within such limits is a useful concept. Nor is the utility of the environmental view limited to the suburbs and beyond. In the central cities, it underscores the need for mass transit to relieve congestion and air pollution, for open space to venti late dreary neighborhoods, for major expenditures for solid waste disposal facilities. We find that what is efficient is also quite often en vironmentally sound. For example would it be less costly as well as environmentally beneficial to spend scarce capital dollars on sewer and water systems for increases in capacity and treatment quality, rather than for line extensions that burden already overtaxed plants ? In the Washington area, the per capita outlay for sewers in fast-grow ing suburban counties is nearly twice what it is in the District. One can speculate what benefits might have accrued to the polluted Poto mac, to downtown waterfront amenities, to the pattern of suburban land use, and to tax rates, if growth had been guided by environmental considerations. Pending legislative proposals to establish a national land-use policy are helpful in recognizing the need for action. Their impact would be*largely administrative and procedural, however; they offer little explicit guidance, or substantive policy benchmarks. And their ap parent assumption that 50 State plans somehow will produce a con sistent, unified national land-use policy is hardly borne out by our ex perience with State water pollution control programs. Perhaps the most difficult hurdle to the development of a national growth policy is not so much that it would limit and constrain—by now we are accustomed to regulation of one kind or another in all facets of our lives. Rather, it is that there are few immutable laws or simple arbitrary requirements with respect to growth to help establish a policy framework. I have suggested that environmental considera tions can help supply one such limit. But by and large, notions of life style, optimum economic activity, and population levels are matters of belief, not subject to rigorous tests of fact or logic. If we are not simply to make decisions about growth by fiat—a prospect to be rejected out of hand—some way needs to be found that guarantees maximum choice by individuals, and by local and State governments, and at the same 91 time safeguards those broader concerns that affect the Nation as a whole. I have said before there is no substitute for national leadership in this difficult, complex search for focus and consensus. In this re spect, one must view this first Report on National Growth as an op portunity lost. However, there are other means of engaging the na tional concern on this issue that perhaps we should explore in addi tion to the requirement for the biennial report. A modest and potentially useful first step would be to request Fed eral agencies to present alternative levels of appropriations needs based on different assumptions of economic activity, urban growth pat terns, and population increase. At the outset such information might be incomplete, uneven in coverage, and largely conjectural. As delib erate efforts were made to meet the requirement for alternative esti mates, however, the quality and reliability of the data could be expected to improve. Two purposes, at least, would be served: The Congress would have a better basis for deciding annual appropria tion requests, and the available information about growth costs and options would be enormously expanded and improved. Other steps are not so easily taken, but their inherent value seems to us to justify putting them forward: First, the executive branch of the Federal Government needs within it a focal point for its role in developing a national growth policy. We now have such a focal point for environmental quality considera tions in the Council on Environmental Quality, established by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. We have a focal point for economic policy, the Council of Economic Advisers—established by Congress in the Full Employment Act of 1946. We suggest that a similar focal point for national growth should now be established in the executive branch. It should be small in num bers, and be located in the Executive Office of the President. It should not be simply another interagency committee, nor an interdepart mental council; its principals should have no other major responsibili ties, and their appointments should be subject to congressional confirmation. The disappointing 1972 Report on National Growth shows why we would be prudent not to rely on an anonymous committee of the inter departmental domestic council to do what now needs to be done. An interagency committee is suitable for some assignments, but it cannot move this Nation to new ground in policy development. (At least, one never has.) We suggest that the biennial urban growth policy report ing assignment be given to the new focal-point policy unit we pro pose—perhaps called the National Growth Policy Board. It has been 30 years since the pioneering National Resources Plan ning Board was terminated; time, certainly, for the United States to take a major new initiative in this field. Second, because the Congress is handicapped by the same fractiona tion that so cripples executive branch interagency committees, we sug gest that it also create a focal point for carrying out congressional responsibilities in developing a national growth policy, and for con tinuing congressional oversight in its implementation. These hearings this week by this committee, on the first national growth policy report, are a beginning. We suggest that similar hear 92 ings be held annually—perhaps focused on the growth policy report in even-numbered years. Because the subject matter involves jurisdiction of other congres sional committees, we suggest two further steps: that you consider augmenting this committee, for the purpose of annual national growth policy hearings, by inviting representatives of such other committees as Agriculture, Interior, and Government Operations to join with you, and that you then consider establishing, with the Senate, a Joint Com mittee on National Growth Policy. Finally, we suggest that Congress give consideration to establishing a Commission on National Growth Policy. I have been a staff member on one commission and I put this suggestion forward with some trepi dation. It is certainly not a novel idea. I think, however, that it is time that the people of the United States need to engage in a national dia logue about alternative growth choices if significant, productive changes from the status quo are to be achieved. It is our history and tradition that major changes are not made until a consensus has been reached that such change is desirable. A Commission on National Growth Policy could help stimulate national discussion, illuminate alternatives, and help a consensus to mature. The initial purpose of these three units which we propose—these focal points for national growth policy, in the executive branch, in the Congress, and for our national community as a wThole—is in essence to begin to ask the right questions, and to get these questions before the American people. Let us be candid. Despite our disappointments with the first na tional growth report, let us admit that this is a most difficult subject. The kinds of questions raised when we talk about “ national growth policy” are basic and complex. They hit directly at a range of goals and values on which well-intentioned people can differ. Answers—particularly politically acceptable answers—to all these questions will be some time in coming. But there is much that we can do meanwhile. First, we can start collecting the great deal of additional information that is needed. Sec ond, we can keep things from getting worse, and keep our options open, by deciding legislative proposals, tax policies, administrative procedures, and budget requests with a conscious concern for their im pact on national growth. Throughout, we need to keep asking ourselves the tough, basic, controversial questions that are the right questions. For in the matter of national growth policy it is important to under stand that not to decide is to decide. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. (Mr. Davis’ prepared statement follows:) P repared Statem ent the of A rthur A . D a v i s , V ic e P r e s id e n t for O p e r a t io n s of C o n s e r v a t i o n F o u n d a t i o n , W a s h i n g t o n , D .C . My name is Arthur A. Davis. I am Vice President for Operations of the Con servation Foundation, a private, non-profit research, education, and information organization in Washington, D.C. dedicated to analyzing public issues from eco logical and environmental perspectives. W e appear here today because we believe that few issues are more basic to our national future than the development of a national growth policy, and that none is in greater need of full understanding by the American people. There is need, first, for facts, for analysis, and for a clear understanding of the respective costs and benefits of the growth choices that remain open to us. 93 Second, we need full ventilation of all points of view. Finally, and most pressing of all, is the need for vigorous, imaginative, effective public leadership in open ing up visions of how this country may look and function— and feel— in the years around the corner. In our view, the “Report on National Growth 1972” does not address these issues adequately. Thus, Congressional review is particularly important. No doubt preparation of this first biennial growth report was a difficult and pioneering task. But we are disappointed that it fails almost entirely to confront the issues. Moreover, it represents a step backward in at least two respects. First, the report assumes, without examination, that growth will continue to be a primary objective of national policy; its concern is only that such growth be balanced and orderly. Even these requirements are only vaguely defined. Bal anced growth is defined in the report merely as “growth which is distributed among both rural and urban areas” and orderly growth is covered by a circular declaration that “ orderly growth requires overcoming the problems associated with past growth and preventing their repetition in the future.” The report ignores completely the contemporary debate about relationships between population, gross national product, environmental quality, and quality of life. Consequently, it evades the basic issue of whether both our population and economy should be encouraged to continue to grow. Its chief article of faith seems to be merely that “more is better.” Second, the report sees no prospect for developing a general national growth strategy in less than a generation. And it cautions that, even then, the oppor tunities for positive policies must be limited if diversity, flexibility, and freedom of personal choice are to be protected. W e are in full agreement, of course, with the need for protecting individual rights and the democratic process; but con tinued mindless growth will, in fact, narrow our choices, reduce diversity, and limit personal freedoms. Remember, too, that policy is what’s happening now. And in that sense, we have a national growth policy, if largely by default. This “policy” is the cumulative effect of existing programs and regulations that, taken together, exert a most profound influence on our growth. For example, consider the growth policy that is formed by the following: tax incentives or disincentives (capital gains, amortization schedules) ; housing policies and pro grams (F H A regulations, new community support, urban renewal, grants for open space and water and sewer facilities) ; national transportation programs— (Federal aid to highways, assistance to airports, and grants and loans for mass transit) ; energy consumption policies— (oil import quotas, power plant siting, utility licensing, depletion allowances) ; Federal contract conditions and pro cedures ; and the two hundred-odd Federal grant and loan programs. The question, then, is not whether we should have a growth policy. W e have one, fragmented, disparate, conflicting, and inadequate as it is. The real ques tions are whether this aggregate constitutes the policy we w ant; and if not, what do we w a n t; and then how do we shape a coherent, explicit, deliberate strategy for directing the velocity and location of grow th: how much, what kind, where, and for whose benefit? It is probably fair to say that there is substantial agreement on the major goals and objectives of a national growth policy. For example, nearly all experts speak to the need f o r : efficient use of land to avoid wasteful and unattractive subur ban spraw l; conscious efforts to direct growth where it can be accommodated en vironmentally and would be advantageous socially and economically; and to discourage growth where such tests could not be m et; improved delivery of public services; restoring central cities as major driving forces in our society; revitalizing rural communities; meeting national housing needs, especially the need for low- and moderate-income housing; preserving maximum freedom of individual choice and diversity o f opportunity. None of these goals is beyond reach. But their attainment depends upon a public will energized at the national level by strong leadership in both the Congress and in the Executive Branch. In particular, two basic policy issues will need to be faced— population increase, and economic growth. I think it is fair to say that in the view of conservationists and environmen talists, population stabilization is a pervasive and basic requirement if man is to continue to live in reasonable balance with his environment. A national policy of moving toward population stabilization, as recommended in the recent report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, is clearly in the best interests of our country. W e hope that this landmark report and its useful recommendations will be given the full hearing and thoughtful consider ation it merits. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 7 94 With respect to economic growth, I would like to lay at rest the stereotype of conservationists as no-growth advocates more concerned with trees than with people. W e are, indeed, concerned with trees, and with land use, water quality, air pollution, and energy requirements as well. But not in some adversary fashion with respect to the human condition. Some of my best friends are people. Rather, conservationists see environmental factors as important determinants of the hu man condition, as well as the real absolutes, the final boundaries to growth. They caution that there are finite limits to the amount and kind of pollutants that air, water, and land can absorb and still remain functional. They point to the fragile interdependencies of natural systems, and their limited capacity to recover when man’s actions unduly imbalance these relationships. Above all, they remind us that exponential growth by any species, including man, cannot be supported in definitely by the natural systems and resources available on the one and only world we have. But the basic concern is not that we’re about to run out of resource commod ities. W ith few exceptions, we’re not even close. Intelligent application of tech nology, further research, and actions to halt waste and to husband our re sources— as in the conservation of energy, for example— can assure that the human species will be around for a long time. As a species, we can probably sur vive a lot more crowding, more congestion, and more pollution. But I would hope that simple survival is not our major g oa l; that the quality and productivity of our lives are the yardsticks of real importance. W e need not settle for an en vironment that is poor but not poisonous, or for cities that survive without serv ing. Yet such could be the result if we content ourselves with the view that growth is good, so long as it is balanced and orderly. An environmental perspective may be particularly helpful in formulating the land-use element of a national growth policy. W e have already achieved the un derstanding that strategically located urban land is in limited supply— an under standing reached first by speculators and developers, and much later by gov ernment. There are indications, also, that we are ready to acknowledge land as a resource as well as a commodity. For example, there is general agreement that it is in the public interest to hold certain lands free from development— stream valleys, steep slopes, salt marshes and other estuarine areas, and lands valuable for water recharge purposes. Land-use legislation proposed by the Administration would require identifying areas of great environmental value or fragility, as well as those in short supply. At the State level, Vermont has asserted authority over all mountain land development at elevation above 2,500 feet. Delaware has closed its shoreline to further development by the kinds of industries that are the worst polluters, and Hawaii has instituted a statewide land zoning. These measures may not all be successful or even desirable; I cite them only as in stances of an awakened understanding to the need for husbanding what in earlier times was regarded as a limitless commodity. At the regional scale, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission is a unique example of the progress to be made when the people of a metropolitan area realize the need to control use of a priceless environmental asset. A number of other com munities have acted to limit growth or slow development out of a new concern for environmental quality. Sewer moratoriums and refusals to grant additional building permits in Virginia, Florida, California, and elsewhere are evidence of a new concern about the desirability of continued growth. These kinds of efforts have been viewed— often with justification— as protec tive and defensive actions to keep suburbs green and tidy, unmarked and be yond reach of downtown problems. The environmentalist has been tagged as an elitist, concerned more with protecting the status quo, or natural resources, than with the human condition. I can only say that the responsible ecological view recognizes that social well-being and sound environmental management cannot be achieved independently of one another. It is true, of course, that the whole thrust of evironmental protection depends upon limiting, directing, and better managing the use of natural resources. This is not a negative concern, but rather a realistic and constructive course of action. Properly employed, conservation principles can be a most positive and useful con struct in a national growth strategy. One of the principal problems in developing such strategy has always been the difficulty of establishing limits that would help answer such questions as how much growth, how fast, and where. Why, for example, should we be concerned that the Washington and Baltimore metro politan areas are growing together? Loss of a sense of community is often men tioned, and a reduction of amenities. Probably so, but hard to document, and 95 harder still to quantify. The efficiency argument— namely, that leapfrogging sub divisions and extended commuting ranges increase public and social costs is easier to demonstrate. Even then, it is difficult to develop the kind of evidence needed to draw firm boundaries. Awareness of environmental limits may help. To give one example, the Population Commission’s report suggests that the boundaries of growth already have been reached in at least one region of the United States— the Los Angeles Basin— because of air pollution alone. The re port notes that the Environmental Protection Agency’s acceptable maximum standard for concentrations of nitrogen oxides is 100 micrograms per cubic meter. “ In Los Angeles,” the report says, “we estimate that even with an active abatement policy, concentrations of nitrogen oxides (in the year 2000) will still be at least 50 per cent above standard, and probably well above that,” because of the anticipated continuing increase of both people and automobiles there. Even though control of emissions from individual cars is assumed to be the limits of technology, the number of automobiles is expected to continue to rise steadily. “ C learly/’ the report says, “in this region of the country something must give: the rate of population growth, the use of the internal combustion engine— especially for personal transport— or the (air quality) standard itself.” Yet, the aggregate of federal programs which constitute national “policy” con tinues to encourage the growth of both people and automobiles in the Los An geles Basin. I f growth is shaped by the environment, rather than the other way around, a major step is made toward supplying the sense of dimension so vital to a viable national growth policy. I f one adds an appreciation of the human equi ties involved, and a concern for efficiency of public investment, the framework of a viable, positive national growth policy begins to emerge. You may be interested in a series of environmental demonstration projects the Conservation Foundation has nearly completed. Assisted by a grant from the Ford Foundation, these demonstrations tried to show how environmental planning can help resolve development vs. preservation land use conflicts. For example, at Rookery Bay, on Florida’s west coast, the National Audubon Society owns and administers a valuable 4,000-acre sanctuary. The marine wa ters of the area are rich in plant and animal life, and provide a key nursery and feeding ground for sport and commercial fishes. The sanctuary’s upland ponds provide the only significant waterfowl habitat in the area. And the area pro vides significant outdoor recreation opportunities. Surrounding the sanctuary are privately-owned lands held for residential and urban development. Can such development go forward in a way that will realize reasonable profits to the landowners, yet not permit uncontrolled drain age and pollution to flow into the sanctuary and destroy it? W e don’t yet have all the answers, but there seems room for guarded optimism. Water management will have to be carefully regulated. Development and con struction work will need to be modified in certain ways— to prevent dredging and filling of the Bay itself, for example— and compromises reached on density of development. But benefits from these steps will flow both ways. For not only will the sanctuary be safeguarded, but the value of surrounding lands will be enhanced. Lack of adequate data can be a major stumbling block. Too often, we just don’t know what the full consequences of environmental manipulation will be. Baseline studies of ecosystems before development are vital to an understanding of what happens because of development. At Rookery Bay, we are helping to gather basic data of many kinds— water temperature, salinity, turbidity, changes in plant and animal life, and other kinds of physical and biological information. This monitoring is continuing so that we will know what happens when develop ment goes forward, and be in position to prevent repetition of harmful practices. It's an operating formula that can be applied in many situations. A t Bolinas Lagoon, in Marin County, California and along the Georgia Coast, we have undertaken similar studies. Each involves a different kind of problem with different resource components. In all cases, however, the basic approach is to determine the environmental limits, and to suggest patterns of both develop ment and protection that can be fitted with such limits. Nor is the utility of the environmental view limited to the suburbs and beyond. In the central cities, it underscores the need for mass transit to relieve conges tion and air pollution, for open space to ventilate dreary neighborhoods, for major expenditures for solid waste disposal facilities. And the concern for the interdependency of systems which is the touchstone of ecology suggests, also, 96 that we look carefully at patterns of public facility expenditures in metropolitan areas. Would it be less costly as well as environmentally beneficial to spend capi tal dollars on sewer and water systems for increases in capacity and treatment quality, rather than for line extensions that burden already overtaxed plants? In the Washington area, the per capita outlay for sewers in fast-growing suburban counties is nearly twice what it is in the District. One can speculate what benefits might have accrued to the polluted Potomac, to downtown water front amenities, to the pattern of suburban land use, and to tax rates, if growth had been guided by environmental considerations. Pending legislative proposals to establish a national land-use policy are help ful in recognizing the need for action. Their impact would be largely adminis trative and procedural, however; they offer little explicit guidance, or substan tive policy benchmarks. And their apparent assumption that fifty state plans somehow will produce a consistent, unified national land-use policy is hardly borne out by our experience with state water pollution control programs. Perhaps the most difficult hurdle to the development of a national growth policy is not so much that it would limit and constrain— by now we are accus tomed to regulation of one kind or another in all facets of our lives. Rather, it is that there are few immutable laws or simple arbitrary requirements with respect to growth to help establish a policy framework. I have suggested that environ mental considerations can help supply one such limit. But by and large, notions of life style, optimum economic activity, and population levels are matters of belief, not subject to rigorous tests of fact or logic. I f we are not to simply make decisions about growth by fiat— a prospect to be rejected out of hand— some way needs to be found that guarantees maximum choice by individuals, and by local and State governments, and at the same time safeguards those broader concerns that affect the nation as a whole. There is no substitute for national leadership in this difficult, complex search for focus and consensus. In this respect, one must view this first Report on National Growth as an opportunity lost. There are other means of engaging the national concern on this issue, however, and I should like to suggest several for your consideration: A modest and potentially useful first step would be to request Federal agencies to present alternative levels of appropriations needs based on different assump tions of economic activity, urban growth patterns, and population increase. At the outset such information might be incomplete, uneven in coverage, and largely conjectural. As deliberate efforts were made to meet the requirement for alternative estimates, however, the quality and reliability of the data could be expected to improve. Two purposes, at least, would be served: the Congress would have a better basis for deciding annual appropriation requests, and the available information about growth costs and options would be enormously ex panded and improved. Other steps are not so easily taken, but their inherent value seems to us to justify putting them forward : First, the Executive Branch of the Federal government needs within it a focal point for its role in developing a national growth policy. W e now have such a focal point for environmental quality considerations in the Council on En vironmental Quality, established by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. W e have a focal point for economic policy, the Council of Economic Ad visors— established by Congress in the Full Employment Act of 1946. W e suggest that a similar focal point for national growth should now be established in the Executive Branch. It should be small in numbers, and be located in the Executive Office of the President. It should not be simply another interagency committee, nor an interdepartmental council; its principals should have no other major responsibilities, and their appointments should be subject to Congressional confirmation. The disappointing 1972 Report on National Growth shows why we would be prudent not to rely on an anonymous committee of the interdepartmental Domestic Council to do what now needs to be done. An inter-agency committee is suitable for some assignments, but it cannot move this nation to new ground in policy development. (A t least, one never has.) W e suggest that the biennial urban growth policy reporting assignment be given to the new focal-point policy unit we propose— perhaps called the National Growth Policy Board. The Board, also, should have staff competence to undertake objective, comprehensive re search and analysis of growth issues, to publicize its findings, and otherwise to act as an expert source of advice and information on growth policy. It could 97 also sponsor a continuing series of public hearings, conferences and seminars at the State level, in major metropolitan areas, and in colleges and universities. Through this process the people of this country could be personally and effec tively involved in basic issues and decisions of immediate concern to them. It has been thirty years since the pioneering National Resources Planning Board was terminated; time, certainly, for the United States to take a major new initiative in this field. Second, because the Congress is handicapped by the same fractionation that so cripples Executive Branch inter-agency committee, we suggest that it also create a focal point for carrying out Congressional responsibilities in developing a na tional growth policy, and for continuing Congressional oversight in its implemen tation. These hearings this week by this Committee, on the first National Growth Policy Report are a beginning. W e suggest that similar hearings be held an nually— perhaps focused on the Growth Policy Report in even-numbered years. Because the subject matter involves jurisdiction of other Congressional com mittees, we suggest two further steps: that you consider augmenting this Com mittee, for the purpose of annual national growth policy hearings, by inviting representatives of such other committees as Agriculture, Interior and Govern ment Operations to join with you, and that you then consider establishing, with the Senate, a Joint Committee on National Growth Policy. Finally, we suggest that Congress give consideration to establishing a Com mission on National Growth Policy. The notion of setting up an advisory commission is hardly new, nor is there any certainty of success in a subject area as complex as this one. However, the people of the United States need to engage in a national dialogue about alterna tive growth choices if significant, productive changes from the status quo are to be achieved. It is our history and tradition that major changes are not made un til a consensus has been reached that such change is desirable. A Commission on National Growth Policy could help stimulate national discussion, illuminate alternatives, and help a consensus to mature. Such a Commission should include citizen leaders appointed by the President, appointed by him upon recommenda tion of Congressional leaders, and several Members of Congress, as well. It should report to the President and the Congress within two years. Its principal responsibilities should be to make recommendations on the elements of a na tional growth policy for the United States, the strategies that might be employed to achieve those goals, and a program for doing it. The initial purpose of these three units which we propose— these focal points for a national growth policy, in the Executive Branch, in the Congress, and for our national community as a wThole— is in essence to begin to ask the right ques tions, and to get these questions before the American people. Let us be candid. Despite our disappointments with the first National Growth Report, let us admit that this is a most difficult subject. The kinds of questions raised when we talk about “national growth policy” are basic and complex. They hit directly at a range of goals and values on which well-intentioned people can differ. Answers— particularly politically acceptable answers— to all these questions will be some time in coming. But there is much that we can do meanwhile. First, we can start collecting the great deal of additional information that is needed. Second, we can keep things from getting worse, and keep our options open, by deciding legislative proposals, tax policies, administrative procedures, and budget requests with a conscious concern for their impact on national growth. Throughout, we need to keep asking ourselves the tough, basic, controversial questions that are the right questions. For in the matter of national growth policy it is important to understand that not to decide is to decide. Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you very much, Mr. Davis, for a remarkably cogent statement. It would be difficult to find a better leadoff witness. You have not sought to indict the Report on National Growth 1972, but simply to express those disappointments which are bound to occur when a report of that kind is issued. It clearly falls short of the mark and the expectations of the Congress, and of groups such as yours that really focus 011 the importance of a national growth strategy, as dis 98 tinct from the disparate ad hoc development processes that have char acterized American growth in the past. Your specific suggestions are most valuable to us. I quite agree that there must be a focal point for national growth and that it has got to be in the executive branch and at the highest level that we have in this country for political decisionmaking, which is very much in volved here. It is interesting that in 1970 we had in mind this kind of congressionally established council or board, patterned very much after the Council on Environmental Quality. Mr. D a v is. Right. Mr. A s h l e y . There would have been an executive-congressional partnership in the sense that there would have been confirmation of the appointees by the Senate. But it would not have been the kind of in-house operation that it was necessary for us to settle upon, as a condition of having the administration agree at all. What you are saying is that a council that is simply “ an identifiable unit of the Domestic Council” falls short of fulfilling the kinds of focus that is necessary; is that correct ? Mr. D a v is. Yes, it is, Mr. Chairman. I have worked with a number of interagency councils, and found that while well intentioned people may try hard, you need to have a single point of responsibility to as sure that a task such as this one is completed; one manager, if you will, who is concerned solely with this, who is not swayed by departmental concerns, and who is not obliged to serve a single constituency. It is for these reasons that I put forward the suggestion of a new unit in the Executive Office of the President. I do so with some reluctance, since that office is already very large. But we are talking here about our national future, and when one examines the performance of the executive branch in putting together any sort of coherent national policy, and sees how short that effort falls, reluctance to suggest an other executive unit is more than overcome by the obvious require ment for a single focal point. I might say that my prepared statement touches upon pending Federal legislation that would authorize preparation of 50 State land use plans. These may prove useful. I think the experience with the water quality control program in this country, however, is all the evidence we need that the aggregation of 50 State policies or plans does not equal the national interest. Mr. A s h l e y . Precisely. I couldn’t agree more. I am glad you made that point. I am also sympathetic to your proposals that hearings such as this be expanded to include representatives of other committees and that, not too far in the future, consideration be given to a Joint Committee on Growth Policy. There certainly is no feeling on our part that the Housing Subcommittee or even the full Banking Committee has any thing approaching total jurisdiction with respect to all of the com ponents that would comprise a national growth policy. The contrary is, of course, true; the crucial power over tax policy obviously falls within the purview of the Ways and Means Committee; and the Com mittees on Public Works, Interior, Agriculture, and other committees have legitimate and proper roles to play and contributions to make. You also propose the establishment of an advisory committee. Mr. D a v is. Yes, sir. 99 Mr. A s h l e y . That would be advisory to the President’s council. That, too, was proposed in the original 1970 legislation but was un fortunately opposed by the administration with considerable vehe mence. I think that events since 1969-70 have justified our original premise, which you have articulated wTith considerable persuasion, that more and more, there simply must be a forum for the contributions of the academic community, of the professional community, and of citi zen groups. This would really serve two functions, one of which is to provide a forum for the kinds of advice that should be enormously helpful in any kind of formulation of goals and policy at the Federal level, and, second, of course, the educational function of making it clear to people that what we are concerned with is of enormous im portance to them. We should again look at that proposal and review^ our past decision. I can assure you that we will do so. I have one or two other matters to discuss with you, but first let me call on Mr. Brown. Mr. B r o w n . Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Davis, in your statement, on page 4, toward the bottom, you say, and I am quoting: I think it is fair to say that in the view of conservationists and environ mentalists, population stabilization is a pervasive and basic requirement if man is to continue to live in reasonable balance with his environment. A national policy of moving toward population stabilization, as recommended in the recent report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, is clearly in the best interests of our country. W e hope that this landmark report and its useful recommendations will be given the full hearing and thoughtful consideration it merits. In view of that statement I would ask at what point and upon what criteria is population stabilization based ? Are we talking about people per acre ? What are we talking about there ? Mr. D a v is. First, I must confess I am no expert on population prob lems. Yet this is perhaps the key question. It seems to me that moving toward a steady and stable population, which, I understand from a re cent news report in the New York Times, we are now doing, is the direc tion in which we should go. A national effort to stabilize population at about this level makes sense both environmentally and economically and seems very much in the national interest. Mr. B r o w n . Isn’t that the very thing you were criticizing in the re port that has been made by the administration; that is, we are looking at what we have and deciding how to control growth rather than estab lishing growth criteria ? Looking at the report, we see there has been a tremendous variation in population growth rates over the years. What if we had decided in 1850 that we should stabilize population? Was that the proper time to do it ? With population increasing, our land mass remains the same, should we stabilize population at the present rate, or are we still prema ture and should we not wait and stabilize it at a rate that may exist in the year 2000 ? What I am saying is how do we know we should be stabilizing it now ? Is there a reason which has not been directly apparent ? Has it been theoretically determined that now is the right time to stabilize and, if stabilized, that it would be at the right rate ? Mr. D a v is. I think we do know, however, that there are many areas of public need in this country where we badly need to play catch 100 up football—in education, in the quality of public services, in health. We would be ahead, I think, to hold our population level steady and work to meet these needs until we have answers to the questions you raise. We would be both prudent and responsible and give ourselves the leadtime that we may need. Therefore it seems to me most sensible to observe environmental limits until we are certain that they can be safely stretched. We can look ahead. This is not 1850. I will grant you that in 1850 I probably would have not made the kind of statement I made this morning. But we know a good deal more now. We are a different so ciety than we were in 1850. Reasonable men can take facts now avail able from such sources as the Population Commission and say, “All things considered, it makes sense to cry hold at this time.” Mr. B r o w n . I s this the first time in our history that we have ever made any real effort or expressed any real concern about a national growth policy ? Mr. D a v is. No, I should doubt that. The National Resources Plan ning Board expressed similar concerns. And of course Malthus ex pressed concern for the future of mankind about 1800. I do think, though, that our technology has so advanced, if not improved, that we are now much more in position than ever before to upset the balances of the one world we have. We know, for example, that the way in which we are pouring automobiles into Los Angeles can make that basin untenable as a healthy place to live in the foreseeable future. With all emission controls imposed, and granting the limit of prog ress in the development of internal combustion engines, we will still have an air quality situation in Los Angeles before the end of the century that none of us will want to live with. We know that now. We can see it coming. I like to think that the difference between man and the other species is that he buys life insurance, he plans, he worries about his future. I think the way to worry about our future is not by scare talk, precipitous actions, or “ Calamity Jane” statements, but by acting on the facts at hand. I think that we are at a dogleg with respect to the physical de velopment and resource consumption of this country, and perhaps the world, and need to act accordingly. The Conference on the Quality of the Human Environment now going on in Stockholm is considering these issues worldwide. I sug gest that it is timely, prudent, and appropriate to slow down until we have answers for some pressing environmental questions. Mr. B r o w n . Is finding a solution for this country the ultimate? What is the impact of our coming up with a plan, a pattern, of na tional growth that is done in isolation as a nation vis-a-vis the rest of the world ? Mr. D a v is. Again, you have raised a major and critical question. Ob viously we must consider how’ American industry can continue to com pete if the costs of environmental protection are internalized. This poses difficult economic issues in some eases. In many instances, though, the cost of environmental protection and pollution abatement need not be that great. There are other elements of cost that are far more sig nificant. But it is still a good question. Many of us are hopeful that Stockholm and its aftermath will give us some clues here. But I would be less than candid if I said I had great expectations. It is going to be a long pull. 101 Mr. B r o w n . I don’t recall the testimony absolutely accurately, but in our hearings before the Joint Committee on Defense Production, in talking about energy, talking about productive capabilities and all of these things, that some of those who testified before our committee pointed out that there was clearly a substantial difference between the requirements, ecological, environmental, and so forth, of other na tions and this Nation, and that the cost differential, therefore, was sub stantial not only in the environment and ecological areas but also in the area of consumerism and everything else. We have an incre ment, a factor, of expense for this effort within our cost of production that is very significant compared with other nations, and so what I am saying is what is the relationship of a solution of our problem on national growth when there is not a similar concern expressed world wide. Let me turn to another-----Mr. A s h l e y . Would the gentleman yield at this point ? Mr. B r o w n . Yes, sir. Mr. A s h l e y . I don’t think it would be quite fair to characterize other countries as not being interested in this area. Mr. B r o w n . I am not saying that. Mr. A s h l e y . There is the Club of Rome. There is the fact that other industrialized countries, the European countries in particular, are far ahead of us in terms of formulating growth strategies. Mr. D a v is. Yes, sir. There is also the fact that with 6 percent of the world population we use 30 to 40 percent of the world’s energy. Brazil has made plain that it wants to catch up to us a bit before worrying about pollution. We may deplore that as their national view on environmental protection but still what Brazil does or doesn’t do hasn’t nearly the impact upon the world environment as what we do. Mr. B r o w n . On p age 13, in the m id d le of the page, you s a y : A modest and potentially useful first step would be to request Federal agencies to present alternative levels of appropriations needs based on different assump tions of economic activity, urban growth patterns, and population increase. Would you develop that for me a little bit? Mr. D a v is. It is a rather new idea which does need development, I grant you. It is our thought that if requests for appropriations were presented on alternative assumptions of population and economic growth, the Congress would have more choices, and a better understanding of the consequences of its decisions than you now have. For example, some one says we want x dollars for the construction of a dam. The dam would be largely to provide a municipal water supply. I f you had alternative appropriation requests predicated on a need for munici pal water for a?, y, or z thousands of people, or understood the cost of other options, such as redirecting growth elsewhere, you could better judge the need for the dam, or for a larger dam, a smaller one, or none at all. You would have more choice than you now have. As it is, you can only vote the dam up or down. School requirements are another example. Should we spend more school money in fast-growing suburbs, or try to reconstitute the vi tality of the central city ? Knowing funding requirements for alterna tive growth rates could help make better decisions. The dollar costs might be greater or lesser for central city schools, I don’t know. If 102 they were greater you might decide to go ahead anyway, in vieA\ of the social benefits produced. The point is that over some period of time, we would begin to develop understandings about what growth is really costing. Mr. B r o w n . Are you saying then that you would use the alterna tive appropriations process; in other words the alternative level of funding-----Mr. D a v is. Yes. Mr. B r o w n (continuing). Would be utilized to limit the activity? Do you mean to suggest that to avoid the problem of congestion of automobiles in Los Angeles we should limit access to the highway trust fund? Mr. D a vis. It could work that way. It could work the other way also. You might decide that a certain region was a logical growth point in the country, and that it would be efficient, and environmentally sound, to channel growth there. In that case you would vote for a high option. Perhaps in the case of New York City or another very large urban area, that seemed to be reaching the limits of growth, you would keep things in a steady state. Appropriation requests that re lated dollars to growth rates would arm the Congress with additional information upon which to make judgments. Mr. B r o w n . With a limited amount of funding for housing, for instance, if we build housing in lower cost areas, rather than in the heart of New York City, we can build a lot more housing for low- and inoderate-income people because we can get more units for the same amount of money. Under this theory of yours, this concept of yours, should we then limit the amount of money that we will put into housing in New York City because we can produce a greater number of housing units for more low- and moderate-income people elsewhere ? Mr. D avis. A good question, and one that can’t be answered simply by a yes or no. Mr. B r o w n . Let me just develop that a little further. The lowest income people get the greatest amount of subsidization of housing and so on. Once again, with one mass of dollars, a limited mass, if we sub sidize people who are only half needy, as compared to the most needy, we can once again provide subsidies for a decent home in a suitable environment for twice as many people. Now should we pursue that latter approach and say to the very needy, sorry, we can’t help you, because we really want to do the most, for the most people, and with limited funding we can help more people by doing things for only those who are not quite as bad off. Mr. D avis. That is a key policy issue. Mr. B ro w n . Isn’t it properly a consideration of any national growth policy ? Mr. D avis. Yes, this is a key policy issue. My suggestion is based on the prospect that one is probably going to make better decisions on these questions with better information. You may decide that it is worth the extra cost to build residential housing in the center city; that it is essential not to have a monoculture in the suburbs, and noth ing but offices in New York. But you would make the decision with an understanding of what tho costs in growth and in environmental terms really are. 103 Mr. B r o w n . One final question because o f its relevance to other legis lation we are considering here. Mr. A s h l e y . I am g o in g to hold you to that. Mr. B r o w n . On page 14 you talk about the executive branch, the National Growth Policy Board, and I notice that you single out and deal in particularity with the question of confirmation. Why? Mr. D a v is. My purpose is to suggest that we should have major first rank executive officials on the Board. The pattern for appointment of officials of this caliber and this level is Senate confirmation. As I said earlier, we are talking about national futures. I think it is fitting that Congress share the responsibility for appointment of persons entrusted with this particular responsibility. Mr. B r o w n . May I only suggest that in the Senate recently we have observed not only problems of partisanship on confirmation but now you are going to also add to that already fertile area of controversy the question of whether someone is a ruralist or an urbanist on this board. Maybe the Senate would be able to withhold confirmation of the board for twice as long as usual. Mr. D a v is. I understand the difficulty, sir, but I am still a great be liever in our system, and though it sometimes operates creakily, I think we should stick with it. Mr. B r o w n . Thank you very much. Mr. D a v is. Thank you, sir. Mr. A s h l e y . Mr. S t Germain. Mr. S t G e r m a in . In answering some of the questions for Mr. Brown, you referred to a redirection of the growth pattern. Later on, you gave the illustration of Los Angeles or San Francisco, the decision being made that growth should continue there, with the alternative being to keep things in a steady state in some of the other larger cities. Actually, are you saying that we should be dealing with providing for orderly growth of the proper areas, recognizing what the growth pat tern has been, or are you saying we should stem the growth, as well as redirect it to the areas in which growth is occurring ? Mr. D a v is. We are going to have growth. I am not suggesting that anybody take a snapshot of this country and try to keep us the way we look in the picture. Some growth is necessary. Some of it is good. As I understand your question, I agree with the first part of it ; namely, that we need to first determine what the limits of growth should be, and then to direct it in an orderly way. But as I said in my text, policy is what’s happening now. Failure to make conscious decisions doesn’t mean that decisions aren’t made every day. I am merely suggesting— and I realize we don’t have a great deal of tha data that it would be desirable to have—that we need to continually examine our options, and try to cost them out in social, economic, physical, and environ mental terms. So I agree with your suggestion that we direct growth consciously, in accordance with our desires as to where and how much and what kind we want. Mr. S t G e r m a in . Another statement that you made was to the effect that there has to be something done about growth, because of the crisis in education and the consumption of energy. As far as that type argument is concerned, I think you could take the other side of it too. Our growth has been and is rapid, there is an educational crisis and there is an energy crisis. There are two ways of 104 handling that. One, you could say we should control growth; and the other is to examine the methods of keeping up with the growth and providing the education and providing the energy. What is your choice of the alternatives in those two areas ? Mr. D a v is. We need to be concerned with the quality and the kind of goods being produced, as well as with production itself. Certainly we need more and better schools. But perhaps we don’t need to make as many nonreturnable plastic bottles. We need to look at the quality of what our productive processes are providing, as much as their total quantity. Mr. St G e r m a in . Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. A s h l e y . Y o u touched upon education, power, energy. Would you agree that our haphazard growth has been caused not by our in ability to control it, but by our lack of commitment to shape it in a way that takes full account of life support systems, housing, educa tion, transportation, law enforcement, health, and the overall quality of public services? I gather that you share my view that the break downs in very important delivery systems can be traced to our ap proach to growth, to our unwillingness to try to shape it in a coherent fashion. M r . D a v is . N o question. Mr. A s h l e y . On that note of agreement, Mr. Davis, thank you very much indeed for being with us. Mr. D a v is. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, I enjoyed it. Mr. A s h l e y . Our next witness is Mayor Norman Y. Mineta, mayor of San Jose, Calif., representing the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities. Mr. Mayor, your reputation arrived here long in advance of your direct presence. We are very pleased indeed to have you with us this morning. STATEMENT OF HON. NORMAN Y. MINETA, MAYOR, CITY OF SAN JOSE, CALIF., ON BEHALF OF THE U.S. CONFERENCE OF MAYORS AND THE NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIES Mayor M in e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, I am Norman Y. Mineta, mayor of one of the fastest growing cities in the LTnited States, San Jose, Calif. It is an extreme pleasure for me to be here representing the Na tional League of Cities and the U.S. Conference of Mayors to discuss this vital issue—urban growth—and the need for a national urban growth policy. I want to express my appreciation to this committee, and par ticularly Congressman Ashley, for its leadership in the urban growth area, and I pray that this series of hearings which the committee is conducting will be looked back on as the point at which this coun try finally decided to seriously address the issue of developing a logical national urban growth policy to replace the inadvertent cha otic and disfunctional national urban growth policy which we pres ently have. I ’ll come back to this point in a minute. But just let me tell you a little about San Jose. As you can see from the maps which I have 105 provided, San Jose is no stranger to growth. We have grown in square miles from 5.47 in 1910; 27.62 in 1955; 63.87 in 1960; 106.03 in 1965; to 142.70 in 1972. ( See pages 106,107.) I want to point out that this growth, and the spreading city boundary has been brought about for the most part through the an nexation of newly developed areas as they develop—and does not represent the annexation of people who are already there. Putting it another way, an average of 25,420 people have been added to the city of San Jose each year during the 10-year period 1960-70. In terms of dwelling units, we have averaged over 9,500 new dwelling units per year over the same period. 106 6 3 .8 7 square 5 47 2 7 .6 2 square miles- square miles 1910 -1955 miles — 1960 107 INCORPORATED AREA City of San Jose 142.70 square Pr e p a r e d By : miles “ 1972 Planning Department Sa n J o s e , Ca l i f o r n i a April 1972 108 The total population in our SMS A—which is Santa Clara Coun ty—has increased from 642,315 in 1960 to 1,064,714 in 1970. As I am sure you can imagine, growth is a major political issue in our area. Citizen groups have been created and coalitions of interests have formed on both sides of the growth issue with some groups pro posing stopping all growth through moratoriums on building permits, et cetera. Yet the building industry payroll is the largest in our valley. And as you know, you can’t stop the community’s major industry without developing seme method of handling the economic consequences. You would think then that the logical course for us to follow would be for the city to develop some logical rationale by which we could control or guide our growth. We’ve tried. First, in terms of simplifying the jurisdictions which deliver services in the area. In San Jose with the help of the State’s annexation laws, and a creature of those laws called the Local Agency Formation Commission, we have managed to resolve the question as to what areas of the county will be served by which cities. The growth history of the San Jose area like so many other areas in the country has had its share of annexation feuds. But the potential of locking in the original city of San Jose through the incorporation of new cities on the periphery—which had landlocked cities like St. Louis and so many other eastern cities—has, as in the case of San Jose, been resolved by the Local Agency Formation Commission. This has been done through the establishment of ultimate boundary lines—or sphereof-influence lines inside of which annexation by another city or the creation of a new city will not be allowed. A map which shows this is provided. (The map referred to by Mayor Mineta may be found on p. 109.) 81-745 O - 72 - pt. o CO INCORPORATED A R E A S 110 What that means is that, within San Jose’s 340 square miles of influ ence, services are provided by either the city or the county, or both. In an effort to get a handle on the growth within our sphere of influence, San Jose in 1970 adopted its first set of urban development policies to help insure that future growth would occur in an ordered, planned manner to achieve balanced development. We felt the for mulation of these policies was necessary to clarify responsibilities for development between the city and county and to assure that all new growth would be adequately served. I am including a copy of this policy document in my testimony, as it does represent a significant policy attempt at providing a basis for staging growth. (See page 117.) Yet, despite our many efforts to manage our growth, I suggest that our efforts at growth management are quite incomplete, and that, given the devices available to us, San Jose cannot manage its growth because the real decisions that affect San Jose and all other American cities are made elsewhere—mostly in Washington. What is more, I will argue that these key decisions are not the obvious ones, but are in areas like income-tax policy, about which the cities have had remarkable little to say. San Jose is fortunate enough to be participating in a Rand Corpo ration project which is funded by the National Science Foundation, whose basic approach is to examine a series of central policy problems in a series of American cities. Rand’s effort has two objectives: first, to assist local decisionmakers such as the mayor and city council in the design and understanding of the policy options open to them; and sec ond, to provide an analytical basis—now notably missing—for the design of a new “ national urban policy.” A preliminary report on “ Alternative Growth Strategies for San Jose,” prepared by the Rand Corp. for the National Science Founda tion, as well as the first-year plan report for the Rand project is appended for your information. (See page 151.) Further, I am deeply indebted to the Rand staff for their work in San Jose because through their efforts we are beginning to be able to identify the elements which presently affect our growth. A major element, if not the dominant element in our growth, we now realize has been the present national urban growth policy. A national urban policy does exist now—an inadvertent one—in fact, this existing national urban policy is what prevents local man agement of local policy, as I stated. I will suggest that this inadvertent national urban policy, made up of elements like mortgage insurance, tax loopholes, and interstate highway construction, is closer to the heart of many local urban problems than is any locally determined policy. The impact on cities of the incentives for private spending inherent in such Federal policies may be much more important in the long run than all the direct Federal public expenditures in the cities. On the first page of the urban development policy there is a photo graphic overview of the city of San Jose and it shows the kind of sprawl that does exist, and this photograph encompasses about onethird of the physical area of the city of San Jose. From the air, the sprawl is more evident. The view is one of houses and industrial plants spreading in all directions where not too long ago there were vineyards and orchards. This visible sprawl covers a number of less visible, but equally important, related urban prob lems: A lack of urban amenities to replace the rural amenities—the I ll beauty that disappeared when the orchards were cut down—together with all the standard and growing problems of congestion and environ ment, and with growing problems in providing dollar support for public services. These are the disadvantages of San Jose’s rapid growth. San Jose has also had the major advantage of such growth, a very high and continuing level of economic prosperity during the growth period. Rand’s analysis indicates that the impressive prosperity of the area has been heavily dependent upon this growth and we expect it to continue to be so dependent, although to a decreasing degree over time. Should the growth slow down substantially now, however, prosperity in San Jose would not merely slow down, it would be likely to turn down. Fortunately, in the short run we do not expect a slowdown substantial enough to have this negative effect. The problem, as I have said, is not how to continue growth, but how to control the growth that does continue— c o n t r o l l i n g the negative effects as the area takes advantage of the positive ones. I am not suggesting that we do not have the problems of housing abandonment, slums, deterioration. San Jose does have its slums and its poor, but they are simply not the dominant problem in this area— yet. What then do San Jose’s growth problems have to do with the other cities of this country? Well, let me suggest that there are very strong connections, connections that mean in the final analysis that, although there are many different city problems in the United States, there is an urban problem because there is a national urban policy—as I have suggested, an inadvertent one. One connection is simply that for those cities where the problem is erosion—erosion of economic base, departure of the middle class, aban donment of whole neighborhoods by people—this economy and these people are going in large measure to the San Joses of this country. Now, of course, I don’t mean that literally; very few of the new in habitants of the San Jose metropolitan area have come from down town Detroit. But San Jose is a major and highly visible part of the national move of the middle class to the suburbs that has been taking place since the Second World War. Indeed, San Jose is almost entirely suburbs. There are large industrial areas, but they are similar to the suburban industrial areas that are increasingly surrounding cities like New York and Boston. What is lacking in San Jose is not suburbs, but a central city in the ordinary Eastern or Midwestern sense. Unlike New York and Boston, the postwar move to the suburbs in San Jose started with a small farm center, so that the city almost literally be came lost among its suburbs. This appears to be quite different from the Eastern experience. In fact, however, it makes San Jose a highly visible illustration of the problems of the postwar suburbs. What San Jose shows is the conse quences of our having no explicit national policy helping to direct the move from city to suburbs. Let’s examine this. We can have very little doubt that one way or another many, many Americans would have moved to something like the suburbs after the Second World War, regardless of national policy. The movement was based on the desire of individual families to obtain their own homes, together with the little bit of green that seemed to 112 be available in areas surrounding the cities. The motivation was there and in the postwar prosperity the money was there and the movement was inevitable. But what happened in addition, was that Federal mort gage policy under FHA and VA supported this movement by facili tating individual moves, ignoring any consequences of the overall movement aside from the ability of the average citizen—the average wThite citizen—to get his little house in the suburbs. To the extent that there was a policy beyond the simple facilitation of the individual moves, the policy was one which we now recognize as highly perverse. In the time period beginning in the 1930’s, and not ending until 5 years after the Second World War—the period that shaped today’s suburban America—the explicit policy of FHA and VA was segrega tion—restrictive covenants and so-called homogeneous neighborhoods. After 1950, the explicit policy changed, but, as we know, public pro motion of segregation held on implicity much longer—up to today to some degree. In any case, it was Federal housing policy—not the piddling hous ing policies for the poor, but the powerful mortgage insurance policies for the middle class—that facilitated the departure of the middle class from the cities with the consequent inner city problems and also facili tated the immense sprawl of San Jose, with the consequent problems here. The move out of the cities would have taken place to a great degree anyhow—but a good policy would have done something for the cities as this happened. Good policy, for example, might have provided income support for both cities and the poor who were left behind in cities. It did not. Similarly, the San Jose area would have grown rapidly with or without a more careful Federal housing policy—among other reasons because of another set of Federal policies having to do with military procurement—policies that created much of the aerospace and elec tronics industry that forms the economic base of Santa Clara County. But the unplanned sprawl pattern in which San Jose grew must be credited in large measure to the FHA, to the facilitating of insured loans for large developers of housing subdivisions. In any case, I think w^e can readily agree that FHA policy has had very much to do with the current problems of cities like Detroit, Newark, and St. Louis, and the problems of the cities like San Jose as well as the suburbs of the Eastern and Midwestern cities. Perhaps that is obvious. What may be less obvious, is that FHA policy worked—and works—let me emphasize that I am not talking just about history now, I am talking about current events—in tandem with another important set of national policies, policies implicit in the Federal income tax. Here is another very interesting set of connections between the problems of the Detroits and Newarks and the problems of the San Joses. Not only does Federal income tax policy with its deductions for homeownership reinforce the suburban flight and plight, but in fact Federal tax policy has the interesting effect of simultaneously encouraging slum deterioration in the cities and en couraging urban sprawl in the suburbs and the San Joses. It has been noted before, that Federal tax law as it was— it is some what modified now but is not completely changed—has accelerated deterioration of inner city slums through its accelerated depreciation provisions. That is, a tenement owner could buy up buildings, obtain 113 the quick tax advantages of depreciating them rapidly, and then sell them to another owner who could start the same process, albeit from a lower level. The built-in incentive here is for quick turnover—getting in and getting out with minimum maintenance. This has been noted before. What has been less commented upon is that these and other provisions of the Federal income tax law have set up the famous real estate tax shelter in the suburbs and in the San Joses. This tax shelter, in turn, has encouraged the sprawl pattern of this area. Add to FHA and tax policy, then, the federally financed highway system which has made it possible for people to live in the suburbs and work downtown—in many cases driving on freeways cut through the slums that have been left behind; add highways, add Federal military procurement, and subtract items like a decent income main tenance system which should have been in an urban policy, but weren’t, and we have the major bases of a quarter of a century of an inadver tent national policy shaping our cities and suburbs. Our current urban policy is inadvertent, it is powerful and furthermore, it is complex— so complex that no simple device or reversal can undo what has been done by the housing, tax, and other policies of 25 years. Now, to what kinds of conclusions does all this lead us? I am sure there are many, but as a mayor let me suggest two related ones: 1. First, these examples of Federal policies illustrate the very im portant fact that we city officials have only very limited control over our cities. The policy wiggle-room for local decisionmakers is re markably small. In the case of the past history of San Jose, it can be argued, and indeed has been argued by the Nader report on California among other documents, that the real reason for the sprawl was weak public official dom. Well, in a sense, I suppose it was. Until the last few years, San Jose and Santa Clara County public officials did not stand up against unplanned sprawl. Legally we could have stood up to the developers, and to the extent that we did not we were weak. But before I damn myself and my fellows out of hand, let us point out that it was not only in San Jose and Santa Clara that public officials did not stand up. Almost nowhere in the United States have officials effectively resisted development; in every area, local government allowed and encouraged sprawl. If we are to be good analysts we must go beyond the specific cases of official actions encouraging sprawl, in order to find the common factor that makes all these allegedly discretionary actions come out the same. And this common factor, I believe, lies in the inadvertent national urban policy I have discussed, a policy which set up economic pressures working through politics to create public policy. It is not that officials were venal. In this area, at least, there is little allegation of anybody being on the take. It is not even that they were weak men. It was rather that the way the system operates, politics is largely based on economics and the economic pressures set up by our acci dental urban policy were not resisted, nor were they likely to be re sisted by public officials anywhere, as they passed the regulations and revisions that facilitated the reshaping of our cities and our suburbs. It is in this sense that local policy is not under local control—and for lack of time, I have not even discussed all the constraints put on local decisionmaking by numerous sets of State laws and regulations. 114 2. Now, in a way, I suppose that if you believe what I have said, I have provided my fellow city officials with something of an out, a “ copout,” if you will. That is, we can say, “ look at those big, bad Feds who set up pressures we couldn’t resist” as well as the State authorities who constrain local action. We are saying in effect, “ You see there really wasn’t much w^e could do about it—poor us.” But there is some thing we can do, and we are doing it here in this hearing today. And that is to say that we recognize that all of the revenue sharing and categorical grants-in-aid the world will not save America’s cities as long us our inadvertent national urban policy remains the same. It is necessary to recognize, of course, the immediate need for more Fed eral money going into many of our cities. But the implication of the HUD and Federal income tax examples is that the real impact of the Federal money that is being spent is significantly less than the Fed eral leverage on the spending of private money—the incentives cre ated by public policy that influence private decisions. FH A money, for example, appears in the Federal budget only in a net sense; since most FHA loans are repaid and the Government guarantee never has to be made good, no Federal expenditure ever shows up. Yet it is pretty clear that FHA has had far more impact on American housing conditions than have all the moneys going into low-income housing projects. The point is that Calvin Coolidge’s statement that “ The business of America is business” still holds true. The really big fiscal impacts on urban and other social conditions in the United States today are the impacts of private spending. And in spite of all the efforts to make private spending publicly self-conscious, the public interest budgets of our major corporate spenders are miniscule as compared to the budgets designed to make a buck for the investors. The major impact of government—particularly the Federal Government—is in the lever age Federal spending has on private spending designed to gain profits. To illustrate this point, we did a little back-of-the-envelope calcula tion that showed that the total HUD expenditures in the San Jose metropolitan area in a recent year—these exclude FHA because, as I said, the FHA impact doesn’t even show .up in expenditures—the total HUD expenditures as such were less than the capital gains tax break on the appreciation of land values in the area in a similar year. This figure does not measure the relative impact of such expenditure—it is difficult to match direct expenditure against leverage—but the point is that the break of only one of many tax loopholes in the “ real estate shelter” was, on an initial basis, greater than the conscious attempt of the Federal Government to affect housing. What I am saying, then, is that Federal revenue sharing and other attempts to put Federal tax moneys into the cities are vitally important in the short run and establishing the principle is important in the long run. But if we really intend to reshape our American cities—to re shape and control the shape of the San Joses and the suburbs as well as the Detroits and Newarks and New Yorks—then we local officials are going to have to pay much more attention to the Federal policies that have shaped and continue to shape our cities. And you as Members of Congress are going to have to help us fashion a new national urban policy which will see to their vitality. 115 In the introduction of the first biennial report on national urban growth, which was prepared by the Domestic Council Committee on National Growth, I was struck by one passage which read: The hard, unavoidable fact of the matter, however, is that no single policy, nor even a single coordinated set of policies, can remedy or even significantly ameliorate all of our ills. As our problems are many and varied and changing, so our solutions must be multiple and diversified and flexible. I will withhold judgment as to whether or not it may be possible to develop a single national urban policy but I will not withhold the judgment that an existing and definable set of policies have created most of those ills. I would offer the hope that the leaders of America and America’s cities will now take the opportunity to reform the forces that push urban decay and unplanned growth; our inadvertent and perhaps uncoordinated set of policies which constitute our pres ent national urban policy. It will not be an easy opportunity to seize—a quarter century of policy cannot be easily undone, and simple reversal of items like tax provisions might compound the problems rather than improving them. What it will take is the careful analysis that did not enter our current inadvertent urban policy. Analysis plus political responsi bility and responsiveness, however, might just make possible the re demption of our cities and suburbs. That’s why these hearings are so important and w'hy your efforts are to be applauded. Let’s hope that these hearings mark the serious commencement of this task. I have appreciated the opportunity to be here and to represent the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the National League of Cities in this matter. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. (The documents “ Urban Development Policies; City of San Jose, California” ; two reports by the Rand Corporation prepared for the National Science Foundation, “ Alternative Growth Strategies for San Jose: Initial Report of the Rand Urban Policy Project” ; and “ Rand Urban Policy Program: Strategy for Selection of Cities and First Year-Plan,” referred to by Mayor Mineta in his statement, follow:) URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES City of San Jose, California CITY COUNCIL N orm an Y . Mineta, A/layor David J. Goglio, Vice-M ayor Joseph A . Co I la A lfredo Garza Janet Gray Hayes W alter V. Hays Roy B. Naylor CITY MANAGER T . W. Fletcher San Jose's first Urban Development Policy was adopted by the C ity Council on O ctober 19, 1970 and revised A pril 10, 1972. 118 BACKGROUND The goal o f the Urban Development Policy is to insure that San Jose's fu tu re growth will proceed in an orderly, planned manner to achieve a balanced composition of industrial, com m ercial, residential, and public uses which preserve and advance the qu ality o f the existing environment. As an im portant step in achieving this goal, the policies seek to assure th at fu tu re development w ill occur in such a manner as to provide efficient and economical public services and to m axim ize the utilization of existing and proposed public facilities. San Jose's rapid growth over a wide geographic area during the last tw e n ty years poses physical lim itations to the efficient provision o f public services. It is generally agreed, however, that a more cohesive and consistent pattern of development could result in lower costs to construct and maintain com m u nity facilities and to provide needed public services. More efficien t public services w ill obviously be of economic benefit to the taxpayer. W hile a number o f conditions were previously factors in San Jose's scattered growth, present boundary agreements between cities and the Urban Development Policy recommendations adopted by the Local Agency Form ation Commission (L A F C O ), the Santa Clara C ounty Association of Planning O fficials (SCCAPO) and the Planning Policy C om m ittee (PPC) w ill increase San Jose's ability to control growth in a more cohesive manner. The L A FC O Urban Developm ent Policy recommendations include the statement that urban develop ment should occur w ithin cities. A vital part of an urban development policy is agreement w ith the C ounty o f Santa Clara that urban-type developments requiring municipal services should not be allowed to develop in the unincorpo rated area o f the C ounty. Cooperation between the C ity and County to carry out the urban development recommendations made by the City-C ounty Planning Com m ittee in October of 1969 w ill also support San Jose's Urban Development Policy. The C ity-C oun ty Planning C om m ittee recommendations are contained in the 1970 Urban Development Policy report available from the San Jose C ity Planning Departm ent. A n integral part o f an effective urban development policy is the C ity's annexation policy. This policy must be consistent w ith, and related to the goals of the Urban Development Policy. In order to assure that the Urban Development Policy effectively direct urban growth and reflect continuing changes in growth trends and capital facilities, the Policy is reviewed annually by the C ity Council. The Urban Development Policy and the related A nnexation Policy were amended on A p ril 10, 1972. The policies were revised after consideration of updated inform ation regarding development, existing and planned capital facilities and vacant land. The Council also considered the recommended Urban Development Policy definitions and policies submitted by the Local Agency Form ation Commis sion (L A F C O ), the Santa Clara C ounty Association of Planning Officials (SCCAPO) and the Planning Policy C om m it tee (PPC). The revised policies are presented here. 119 ANALYSIS DESIGNATION OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREAS The objective of the Urban Developm ent Policy is to stage growth in a manner which provides fo r orderly and planned growth. In order to accomplish this objective, it was necessary to consider (1) the amount of land which will be needed annually to accommodate new growth (2) the areas of the C ity which currently have adequate utilities and facilities and (3) the amount o f land which must be available to avoid artificial inflation o f land values. The area designated for immediate urban growth should be th at area which is now serviced or proposed to be serviced w ithin five years, provided the area is large enough to accommodate projected growth and avoid inflation of land values. LAND REQUIREMENT AND RATE OF GROWTH Based on Federal decennial census figures, the annual increment o f growth between 1960 and 1970 was 2 4 ,2 0 0 persons. Between 1962 and 1967, 8 ,0 0 0 acres o f land were developed fo r roadways, com m unity facilities and private land uses o f all kinds. Based on the growth, approxim ately 64 acres of land are needed fo r each 1,000 people added to the population. W ith the increased number o f m ultiple dwellings and townhouses added between 1967 and 1972, it is likely that the 6 4 acres o f land per 1,000 population ratio is high. Assuming the population o f San Jose will continue to grow at the same annual rate which has occurred fo r the past ten years, approxim ately 2 5 ,0 0 0 persons per year, 1,600 acres w ill be required annually to accommodate growth. This acreage requirement represents the maxim um am ount o f land needed annually because it is based on a high growth rate and low density pattern o f development. In the year follow ing the adoption of the Urban Development Policy, October 1970 to October 1971, approxim ately 1,500 acres were developed. 120 ANALYSIS DESIGNATION OF SERVICED AREAS In order to iden tify the area which should be initially considered fo r urban development, the location and service areas of existing and proposed urban services and facilities were mapped. These maps are included in the 1970 Urban Development Policy publication available fro m the San Jose Planning Departm ent. Essential city services and basic utilities were considered in designating serviced areas. Essential city services are police and fire protection, streets, and library and park services. Basic utilities are sanitary services, storm drainage facilities and water service. An urban area was determined by utilizing the service area maps to determ ine a boundary consisting o f areas having or proposed to have urban services and facilities. The urban or serviced area contains approxim ately 4 8 ,1 0 0 acres. O f these 2 1 ,5 0 0 acres (45% ) are developed, 5 ,6 0 0 acres (11% ) are approved fo r development and 2 1 ,0 0 0 acres (44%) are vacant. The total of the land approved fo r development and the vacant land is 2 6 ,6 0 0 acres; this is enough land fo r 16 years o f future growth. EFFECT OF LAND AVAILABILITY ON LAND PRICE In general, as long as sufficient choice is provided, it is assumed th at the value of the developable land would not be significantly affected. Land w ithin a given area generally appreciates as the land develops. Based on the previous assumption th at 1600 acres is the m axim um probable number of acres which could be developed annually, it is fe lt that the 26 ,6 0 0 acres in the urban area would be a sufficient supply to avoid artificial inflation o f land values. Annual review o f the policy w ill assure that enough land remains in the urban area to avoid artificial inflation o f land values. 121 e REVISION IN THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY The Urban Developm ent and Annexation Policies were revised on A pril 10, 1972. T he new policies are presented on the following pages. The major changes are briefly mentioned here. The Urban Development Policy, as adopted in 1970, contained three development areas: urban, urban transition and urban reserve. Urban areas were considered fo r immediate development; urban reserve areas were assumed to be not required fo r urbanization in the next 15 years. Transition areas were an interim category between the tw o. A fte r consideration of the size o f the urban area at the annual review, the transition area was eliminated by placing developed areas in the urban area and the undeveloped areas in the urban reserve. The transition policy was replaced by a transition process providing fo r planned expansion of the urban area. T h e transition process describes a procedure and set o f criteria to be used to determ ine whether properties mapped as urban reserve should be considered fo r development. T he Urban Development Policy definitions and policies were modified to reflect th e new transition process and analysis of the L A FC O Urban Developm ent Policy recommendations. URBAN DEVELOPMENT MAP to to LEG EN D Urban Reserve 123 URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREAS The Urban Developm ent M ap designates areas: U R B A N and U R B A N R E S E R V E . tw o kinds of U R B A N — U R B A N A R E A S consist o f existing urban devel oped areas and vacant and agriculture land either incorporated or unincorporated, w ith in a city's sphere of influence, which are now served by existing urban facilities, utilities and services or are proposed to be served by urban facilities, utilities and services provided in the first 5 years o f the city's adopted Capital Im provem ent Program. The boundary around these urban areas w ill be called "U rban Areas Boundary.'' Urban Areas may be divided into tw o categories: Urbanized Areas — This includes all urbanized areas that are now part of the city. It also includes urbanized areas that are presently unincorporated th at are w ithin the C ity's 'Urban Area B oundary." Urban Expansion Areas — Urban expansion areas consist of vacant and agricultural land proposed for urbanization, served by utilities or public facilities now existing or provided fo r in the first 5 years of the C ity's adopted POLICY Capital Im provem ent Program, and placed w ith in the city's "U rban Area Boundary." (O ther vacant and agricultural land not ready or not desired fo r urbanization w ill be placed in U R B A N R E S E R V E A R E A S ). These lands may be incorporated or unincorporated and in some cases the land may be in a sewer district. A portion o f the Urban Area consist o f Urban Open Space Areas. Urban Open Space Areas are composed of lands w ithin the Urban Area including publicly owned lands such as parks, u tility corridors, w ater areas and flood control channels and areas which w ill be designated in the future as required for park and recreation purposes. This category could also include certain privately-owned lands upon which development should be perm anently prohibited for reasons o f public health, safety and welfare; such as landslide areas, earthquake hazard areas, and airport flight path zones. Such areas would be designated in the General Plan. U R B A N R E S E R V E — These are generally areas not readily accessible to u tility extensions or where development of com m unity facilities are not programmed. Extensive highway systems may also be required and are also n ot programmed to serve these areas properly. These are areas which include lands which may be in the C ity or may be in the C ounty and in San Jose's area of influence. These areas are generally open in nature and contain no urban development. These areas shown in the urban reserve are generally not required fo r urbanization in the next 15 year period. A n undesignated portion o f the urban reserve may be in close proxim ity to existing urban development and may m eet stated criteria fo r development, as defined in the urban transition process. These areas may be required fo r developm ent w ithin the next 15 years. 124 A portion o f the urban reserve contains permanent open space. This category, includes publicly owned lands including parks, u tility corridors, w ater areas and flood channels. It could also include lands upon which developm ent is to be permanently prohibited fo r reasons of public health, w elfare and safety; more specifically to meet such needs as: the aesthetic and psychological needs of an urban population fo r open space; the requirements fo r an adequate air basin, w ater shed, and ground w ater recharge areas fo r the maintenance o f adequate air and water quality; the maintenance of acceptable noise levels; the consideration o f public safety w ith regard to landslide, earthquake, fire hazard, flooding, and air flight areas, and the maintenance o f ah ecological balance. These areas w ould be designated in the General Plan. b URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY 1. Existing and fu tu re urban land uses should be in cities. Urban expansion should be planned and programmed by the cities on a staged basis, in cooperation w ith the county and L A F C O . 2. Urban areas should be designated by cities, in cooperation w ith th e County and L A F C O . Areas identified as urban on the Urban Developm ent Map either in the C ity or in the C ounty, and w ith in the existing u tility systems, shall be encouraged fo r immediate develop ment. Individual areas shall be reviewed as to their ability to be served by the existing or proposed fa cility systems. (Five-Y ear Capital Im provem ent Program.) Both urbanized and urban expansion areas in the C ounty should be pre-zoned as provided fo r under existing procedures o f the C ity Council. Th e C ounty should not allow urban uses in th e urban area. Th e C ity should seek ways o f establishing planning and development control w ith in sewer districts in the C ity's urban area. In parts o f the urban area where fu ll facilities and services do not exist and are not funded, the C ity should plan for the expansion o f facilities and services and include them in the 5-year Capital Im provem ent Program. T h e C ity Manager shall report to the Council on any special funding required to provide public facilities in urban area at such tim e as specific development is proposed. In order to assure th at all new urban development be adequately served, each developer w ill be required to pay the incremental cost fo r new capital facilities created by his development. This paym ent w ill be toward the cost o f park land acquisition and first phase park development, libraries, fire stations; parks and public works maintenance facilities, and com m unication equipment. 3. Areas indicated as Urban Reserve on the Developm ent M ap are to be considered non-urban areas. N o development should be perm itted in most cases. In a few cases, areas mapped as urban reserve'will meet the criteria described in the urban transition process and may be considered for urban development. Exceptions m ay be considered in other cases by report of the C ity Manager to the Council only if development is considered to be o f outstanding value to the existing or future urban com m unity. T he report shall include an assessment o f the economic and other com m u nity benefits o f the proposal. Proposed funding o f special costs to the developer, and special costs to th e C ity , if any, shall be included. Where such a report shows th at the costs of developing are higher than ordinary in the urban area, then the extra costs o f sanitary sewers, and other u tilities shall be borne by the developer. Where feasible, reimbursable contracts may be employed fo r the construction o f municiple w ater facilities. However, this policy may vary, depending upon the economic and other benefits derived by the C ity in the approval of the development. Where the C ity has no facilities planned in the near future for parks and recreation, fire protection, libraries or public w orks maintenance facilities the developer may be required to participate in the additional costs o f said facilities and to provide fo r these as well as other services. T he am ount he.is required to contribute w ill vary w ith the type and size of the development he is proposing. Urban reserve areas should not be considered fo r pre-zoning by the C ity. The C ity w ill consider the recommendations o f the County's urban developm ent/open space program in desig nating San Jose's urban reserve area in the future. 4. Properties in an undesignated portion o f the urban reserve area may m eet criteria necessary for urban development. Properties in the urban reserve w ill be evaluated on an individual application basis using the urban transition process, to determ ine whether they meet necessary criteria. The follow ing urban transition process would be used to consider development. When a specific developm ent pro posal is made fo r an area mapped as part o f the urban reserve, the C ity Manager's report to the Council on the proposal should include an evaluation to determ ine whether the property m et the stated transition criteria as well as an assessment o f the economic and other com m unity benefits o f the proposal. T he transition criteria would require the property to be: (1) located on or near the urban edge, (2) adjacent to existing development, and (3) generally served by existing or proposed facilities or services. Areas meeting these criteria w ould be considered fo r development. 5. T h e C ity shall designate open space areas (in conformance w ith State Law ). A ll possible devices should be used to m aintain this land in open space. 125 6. Urban Development shall be reviewed by the C ity Manager prior to the adoption of the Capital Program or operating budget fo r each fiscal year. Findings and recommendations w ill be forwarded to the C ity Council for annual review and adoption. 7. A ctivities of the Industrial Development Commission and Housing Task Force should generally be structured w ithin the framework of this policy. Conversely, proposals and recommendations of these1 committees shall be evaluated for their significance to development in future reviews of this Development Policy. Sim ilarly, all development will be evaluated on a continuing basis in order to assess its ecological implications. These findings also will be consid ered in future reviews of this Development Policy. ANNEXATION POLICY The Annexation Policy of the City should conform closelv to the Development Policy. The act of annexation itself is frequently an integral step in the development process. In the light of the factors and considerations previously set forth, the following Annexation Policy is established: POLICY http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 81-745 O - 72 - pt, 1 - - 9 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1. Those unincorporated areas w ithin the C ity's sphere of influence which are generally w ithin reach o f essential city services and which have or are w ithin reach of all basic utilities are encouraged for immediate annexation. 2. These areas lacking one or more of the basic utilities and the essential city services (i.e. the Urban Reserve) shall be considered for annexation only on an exception basis, when in the interest of the C ity o f San Jose. The C ity Manager will prepare a report for the Council related to any proposed annexation in the Urban Reserve. If the developer has a specific development plan for the property, this report shall include (1) an evaluation o f w hether or not the development is of outstanding value, and (2) a cost revenue analysis considering both capital facility expenditures and C ity operating costs which will be created by the proposed development. The report shall also include an analysis of the effect of extending urban services on adjacent areas that can also be served. This report w ill provide the Council w ith a basis for deciding if the proposed annexation w ill lead to a development of outstanding value to the existing or future urban com m unity. Only proposals which meet this criteria should be perm itted to annex. If no specific development is proposed, the report shall include (1) a cost revenue analysis fo r providing services to the property in its current land use, (2) a cost revenue analysis fo r providing services to the property for the highest use allowed under the General Plan, and (3) an analysis o f the effect that extending facilities to serve the projected General Plan land use will have on adjacent areas. CONCLUSION The direction of future growth and development is among the most pressing issues facing San Jose today. W hile the policies presented in this report do not answer all questions and resolve ail doubts, they do set a point of departure and a fram ework for future review and revision. 126 URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES City of San Jose, California CITY COUNCIL to Ronald R. James Mayor Norman Y. Mineta Vice Mayor Joseph A. Colla David J. Goglio Kurt Gross Walter V. Hays Virginia C. Shaffer Thomas W. Fletcher City Manager The Urban Development Policies were adopted by the City Council on October 19,1970 BACKGROUND The goal of an urban development policy is to insure that San Jose’s future growth will proceed in an orderly, planned manner to achieve a balanced composition o f industrial, com mercial, residential, and public uses which preserve and advance the quality of the existing environment. As a first corollary of that goal, development in the future should be structured to provide a full range o f employment, consumer, housing, and public use opportunities. Of equal importance to that goal, future development must respect the environmental requirements o f an urban area and maintain or enhance the physical and social quality o f life in that area. This is not to imply total return to a pastoral setting — which is behind us; but rather the development o f a modern urban center, which people undeniably seek, with a healthful and pleasant physical setting. Thirdly, consistent with the longer-range goals above, development in the immediate future should be designed to provide efficient and economical public services and to maximize utilization of present capital improvement facilities. San Jose’s rapid growth over a wide geographic area during the last twenty years poses physical limitations to the efficient provision of public services. It is generally agreed that a more cohesive and consistent pattern of development could result in lower costs to construct and maintain community facilities and to provide needed public services. More efficient public services will obviously be of economic benefit to the taxpayer. While a number of conditions were previously factors in San Jose’s scattered growth, present boundary agreements between cities as well as apparent County policy that urban development should occur within cities, might now provide a means of controlling San Jose’s growth in a more cohesive fashion. A vital part o f an urban development policy to insure cohesive and orderly growth is agreement with the County of Santa Clara that urban-type developments requiring municipal services should not be allowed to develop in the unincorporated area of the County. In addition, an integral part of an urban development policy is the annexation policy of the City. The proposed annexation policy encourages all land within the C ity ’s sphere of influence to be ultimately annexed and developed in the City. Therefore, the annexation policy must be consistent with, and related to, the goals of the urban development policy. ANALYSIS A. LAND REQUIREMENTS AND RATE OF GROWTH The Planning Department has estimated fttt'at with San Jose’s current rate of growth the population w ill increase by approximately 130,000 persons from 1970 to 1975. This depends on the economic conditions and other variables which are beyond this C ity ’s control. The April 1, 1970 population was estimated at 436,965. The 1975 total population estimated will be 566,000. This compares with a population increase in San Jose of 126,300 between 1962 and 1967. Between 1962 and 1967, 8,000 acres o f land were developed for roadways, community facilities, and private land uses of all kinds. Approximately 64 acres o f land are needed for each 1,000 people added to the population. Between 1965 and 1967, the density increased by approximately five people per acre. With the increased number of multiple dwellings and townhouses added between 1967 and 1970, it is likely that the 64 acres of land per 1,000 population ratio is too high. San Jose will probably need somewhat less than 8,000 acres during the next five years to accommodate growth. B. TABLE 1. LAND A V A IL A B IL IT Y BY AREA. 1970 GEOGRAPHIC AREAS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP (MAP I) Little land remains to be developed in the central and western sections of San Jose. The major impact o f future development will probably be felt in Alviso, North San Jose, Berryessa, Alum Rock, Evergreen, Edenvale, Coyote, Willow Glen, and the Almaden area. The outer boundary o f these areas is the demarcation between the valley flo or and the foothills. This is reflected in the visual exhibits showing urbanization. In the next five years the major pressure for development will probably be in the Berryessa, Edenvale and Evergreen areas. Acreage B Acreage Approved for Developed Development A Area Alviso North San Jose Berryessa Alum Rock Evergreen Edenvale/Coyote W illow Glen/Alm aden TO TAL 310 (19%) 1,427 (23%) 1,020 (25%) 4,417 4,98 6 3,633 3,703 308 27 6 639 85 (19%) ( 4%) (17%) ( 1%) (68%) (37%) (18%) (45%) 1,139 ( 8%) 1,362 ( 7%) 3 0 0 ( 4%) 19,4 96 (32%) 4,109 ( 7%) C D Vacant Acreage Total Acres o f Land 1,011 (62%) 4.61 4 (74%) 4,249 (51%) 1,629 6,317 3,924 6,542 1 3,490 20,241 8,252 3 6 ,7 90 (61%) 60,395 2,265 2,040 7,365 15,2 46 (58%) (31%) (55%) (75%) LAND AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPED LANDS LANDS COMMITTED TO DEVELOPMENT 1970-75 PLANNING AREAS BOUNDARIES SPHERE OF INFLUENCE BOUNDARIES UTILITY SITUATION (Map II - Sanitary Sewer System; Map III — Storm Sewer System; Map IV — Water System) Maps II, III and IV indicate what is in place now, as well as those u tility extensions in the current Five-year Capital Program, and the proposed bond issue. For the sanitary network, the criteria used was that an area within 1,000 feet of an existing or proposed line could be reasonably serviced by that line. The areas not served by storm sewers were defined as those areas that were not connected to an existing or proposed system nor could be connected by construction covered by the required storm sewer area fees. For water service, the criteria was simply “ yes” an existing system can serve the area, or “ no” an existing system cannot serve the area. The utility system maps clearly indicate that certain areas cannot be urbanized without further u tility extension. EFFECT OF LAND A V A IL A B ILIT Y ON LAND PRICE In general, as long as sufficient choice is provided, it is assumed that the value of the developable land would not be significantly affected. Land within a given area generally appreciates as the land develops. However, the value o f the land which might be designated as not available for immediate development would suffer a decrease in value in proportion to the length of time which the undevelopable status remains. The total acreage, as shown in Table 2, available for development or approved for development, is approximately 24,000 acres. Based on the previous assumption that 8,000 acres would be the maximum possible number of acres that could be developed in the next five years, it is then felt that the 24,000 acres would be a sufficient supply to avoid artificial inflation o f land values. However, as acreage is developed, provision should be made to provide for additional developable acreage so that the supply of land would not be reduced in future years TABLE 2. TOTAL ACRES A V A ILA B LE FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER EXISTING U T ILIT Y SYSTEM, 1970 Area Alviso N orth S.). Berryessa A lu m Rock Evergreen Edenvale/ C oyote W illow G len/ Alm aden TO TAL A B Acreage Developed V acant Acreage A pproved fo r D evelopm ent 310 (19%) D E Acreage Vacant T otal Acres o f Land 4,986 (37%) 2,278 (18%) 1,629 6,317 3,924 6,542 1 3,490 3,633 (1 8%) 1,362 ( 7%) 4,680 (23%) 10,5 66 (52%) 20,241 3,703 (45%) 3 0 0 ( 4%) 2,293 (36%) 1,316 (15%) 8,252 4,109 ( 7%) 2 0 ,3 4 2 (3 4 % ) 16,448 (27%) 60,395 19 ,4 9 6 (3 2 % ) 635 2,702 2,265 2,040 5,087 (39%) (43%) (58%) (31%) (37%) 3 7 6 (2 3 % ) 308 276 639 85 1,1 39 1,427 (2 3%) 1,020 (25%) 4,417 (68%) (19%) ( 4%) (1 7%) ( 1%) ( 8%) C Acreage Available fo r D evelopm ent 1,913 (30%) M AP 111 STORM SEWER SYSTEM • PRESENTLY SERVED AREAS AREAS TO BE SERVED FROM EXISTING FUNDS muk ‘ AREAS TO BE SERVED FROM FUTURE BOND PROGRAM E. PUBLIC FACILITIES (Map V - Fire Service Areas; Map VI — Library Service Areas; Map VII — Park Service Areas; Map V III — School Service Areas; Map IX — Transportation Network) Maps V through IX show existing facilities, funded facilities in the Five-Year Capital Improvement Program, and facilities in the future bond issue. The criteria used to delineate the service areas of the facilities reviewed are as follows: 1. FIRE STATIONS. Within residential areas no section should be farther than five minutes from a station. This generally translates to a radius o f Vh miles from the facility. (Map V — Fire Service Areas) 2. LIBRARIES. The service area is defined in terms of the number of people served, which is generally considered to be 45,000 to 70,000 people. This translates into approximately a two-mile service radius. (Map VI — Library Service Areas) 3. OPEN SPACE. (Parks) There are two general service patterns required — one for neighborhood parks (minimum three to five acres) and one for community parks (ten-plus acres). Respectively, the service radius for neighboriiood parks are 14 or Vi mile, depending on the facilities provided; and one mile for community parks. (Map VII — Park Service Areas) The service areas for the parks that will be built with money from future bond programs are not shown on Map VII. However, the money provided should be sufficient to provide the needed services in the urban areas. All existing school sites that meet requirements for open space singly or as part of an adjacent neighborhood or community park are counted as part of the overall system. 4. SCHOOLS. Service areas are a direct funtion of population. In general, it is assumed that elementary, junior high and high schools average 700; 1,000; and 1,400 students, respectively. Using existing density and a given percentage of population in each of the age ranges and assuming the area fu lly developed, the service areas for each is as follows: elementary .7 square miles, junior high 1.15 square miles, high school 1.3 square miles (Map V III — School Service Areas) 5. TRANSPORTATION. The transportation network is primarily a highway system consisting of interstate and state freeways, county expressways and major four and six-lane city thoroughfares. The state and interstate system shown consists of two designations — the existing system and the planned and programmed system for future construction. The county expressway system shown consists of existing expressways, expressways under construction and funded, and expressways planned but not funded. The major four and six-lane city thoroughfare system consists of existing roads, roads programmed in the Five-Year Capital Improvement Program, or the future bond issue. Planned major thoroughfares consist of future systems which are not funded under the current Capital Improvement Program or the future bond issue, and other planned major thoroughfares which are not funded and may be constructed through future bond issues or by developers as a requirement. (Map IX — Transportation Network) The community facility maps, Maps V through IX, indicate areas served but not fully developed. Many existing facilities operate below capacity. However, when possible, facilities like fire stations are only manned and equipped for the existing increment of development. Generally, the cost of providing services in partiallydeveloped areas is substantially higher than when the area is fu lly developed. In some instances, higher capital costs are also incurred because two are built in the same period of time, each partially used, rather than constructing one facility that can be more fu lly used. In areas now served by utilities but not served by all public facilities, consideration could be given to encouraging development in areas where the cost o f developing public facilities is least expensive. MAP V FIRE SERVICE AREAS 4 ) EXISTING FUNDED BUT NOT CONSTRUCTED PROPOSED IN FUTURE BOND PROGRAM COUNTY MAP VII PARK SERVICE AREAS IJ SERVICE AREAS FOR NEIGHBORHOOD AND COMMUNITY PARKS REGIONAL # NEIGHBORHOOD-SCHOOL PARK SITES TRANSPORTATION NETWORK M A jO R THROUGHFARES ------FU LLY IMPROVED — FUNDED ™ PLANNED EXPRESSWAYS ------ FU LLY IMPROVED - — FUNDED — PLANNED FREEWAYS ------FU LLY IMPROVED — FUNDED URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREAS (Map X - Urban Devel opment Policy Areas) The urban development policy areas, Map X, is a synthesis of all material previously discussed with regard to public facilities and utilities within the existing situation, the Five-Year Capital Improvement Program, and the future bond issue. This map desingates three kinds of areas: Urban, Urban Transistion, and Urban Reserve. URBAN. This area on the map is composed of all the existing urbanized areas within the City of San Jose and within the County of Santa Clara, within our area of influence as well as those areas that are vacant and are ready for urbanization. They generally may be served by utilities or public facilities now existing or within the Five-Year Capital Improvement Program or the future bond issue. URBAN TRANSITION. Areas of urban transition are those lands adjacent to urban areas which are neither programmed for public facilities nor utility extensions. These lands are a combination of areas both on the valley floor and in the hills. These are areas generally not annexed to the City and have not been urbanized. URBAN RESERVE. These are generally areas in the hills and not readily accessible to utility extensions or where develop ment of community facilities is not programmed. Extensive highway systems may also be required and are also not p'rogrammed to serve these areas properly. These are areas which include lands which may be in the City or may be in the County and in our area of influence. These areas are generally open in nature and contain no urban development. These areas shown in the urban reserve are not required for urbanization in the next 15-year period. URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY I. Areas identified as urban on the Urban Development Map either in the City or in the County, and within the existing u tility systems, shall be encouraged for im mediate development. Individual areas shall be reviewed as to their ability to be served by the existing or proposed public facility systems (Five-Year Capital Program and proposed bond issue). All County areas should be pre-zoned as provided for under existing procedures of the City Council. The City Manager shall report to the Council on any special funding required to provide public facilities in these areas, at such time as specific development is proposed. Those areas outside o f existing u tility systems identified as Urban Transition on the Development Map should be pre-zoned for agriculture as an interim measure. Upon the filing of a specific development proposal in these areas, the City Manager shall review the proposal and submit a complete report to the Council assessing the economic and other corflRMJnitv benefits of the proposal. Proposed funding oWpecial costs to the developer and special costs to the City, if any, shall be included. Areas indicated as Urban Reserve on the Development Map are to be considered non-urban areas. No develop ment should be permitted. Exceptions may be con sidered by report of City Manager to the Council if the development is considered to be of outstanding value to the existing or future urban community. These areas should not be considered for pre-zoning by the City. Urban development shall be reviewed by the City Manager prior to the adoption of the Capital Program or operating budget for each fiscal year. Findings and recommendations will be forwarded to the City Council for annual review and adoption. Activities of the Industrial Development Committee and Housing Task Force should generally be structured within the framework o f this policy. Conversely, pro posals and recommendations of these committees shall be evaluated for their significance to development in future reviews o f this Development Policy. Similarly, all development will be evaluated on a continuing basis in order to assess its ecological implications. These findings also will be considered in future reviews of this Development Policy. ANNEXATION MAP (MAP XI - ANNEXATION POLICY AREAS) The Annexation Map identifies three types o f geographic areas. Type I sections depict unincorporated areas within the C ity ’s sphere of influence which are generally within reach of essential City services and which have or are within reach of all basic utilities. The term “ essential services” refers to police and fire protection, streets, and library and park services. The term “ basic utilities” refers to sanitary sewers, storm drainage facilities and water service. Type II sections depict unincorporated areas within the C ity ’s sphere of influence which lack one or more basic utilities and might not be within reach of essential City services. Type III sections depict unincorporated areas within the C ity ’s sphere of influence which lack most or all of the basic utilities and essential City services. ANNEXATION POLICY The Annexation Policy o f the City should conform closely to the Development Policy. The act o f annexation itself is frequently an integral step in the development process. In the light o f the factors and considerations previously set forth, the following Annexation Policy is established: h -l Those unincorporated areas w ithin the C ity ’s sphere of influence which are generally within reach o f essential City services and which have or are within reach of all basic utilities are encouraged for immediate annexation. II. Those areas lacking one or more of the basic utilities and the essential City services shall be considered for annexation only on an exception basis, when in the interests of the City o f San Jose. CITY-COUNTY RECOMMENDATIONS ON URBAN DEVELOPMENT The four recommendations (see Appendix) made by the joint City-County Planning Committee and recommended to both the City Council of San Jose and the Board of Supervisors as policy, are most important. San Jose will not be able to effectively have a realistic growth or annexation policy unless these recommendations are carried out. Both legislative bodies have met and discussed the recommendations. They have indicated their general agreement and have asked both City and County Planning and Legal Staffs to recommend solutions to recommenda tions 1 and 4. San Jose is now working toward implementa tion of recommendations 2 and 3 through the adoption of this Development Policy. The Development Policy speaks directly to the City-County Planning Committee recommendations 2 and 3. As adopted, this Policy would fu lfill the C ity ’s obligation to stage and direct growth in its area o f influence and provide urban services through a reasonable development plan. The full intent of these policies, however, cannot be realized until the County provides a means to implement its part o f the policy by not considering urban-type zoning. It is also important to implement City-County recommenda tion 4 if the geographic areas now served by sewer districts are, in the future, to be served by the City of San Jose. These areas, both urbanized and vacant, must become part of the City o f San Jose. State legislation should be recommended by both legal staffs with regard to these districts. It is only proper that these areas pay their share for City major streets, adjacent lighting, etc. CONCLUSION The direction o f future growth and development is among the most pressing issues facing San Jose today. The policies adopted in this report do not answer all questions and resolve all doubts. These policies, however, set a point of departure and a framework for future review and revision. ANALYSIS A. ZONING 1. THE CHANGING URBAN PATTERN Appendix October 29, 1969 TO: FROM: SUBJECT: City-County Planning Committee City and County Planning Staffs Zoning o f Unincorporated Areas Within the City of San Jose Sphere of Influence A t the August meeting of the City-County Planning Committee, the City and County staffs were asked to prepare a report on whether the County can or should relinquish zoning within San Jose’s sphere o f influence. The question cannot be answered by a simple yes or no. It is not recommended at this time that the County give up any legal zoning powers. It is recommended that the intent o f such a request be carried out as follows: I. GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATION 1: The County should reaffirm the general policy that URBAN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN CITIES, RECOMMENDATION 2: The City should define urban development areas, including both incorporated and unincor porated areas, prepare a program in cooperation with the County for extending services to these areas on a staged basis, and plan and prezone the unicorporated area which is intended fo r annexation. RECOMMENDATION 3: The County should adopt a policy o f not considering urban-type zoning in those areas where the City has accepted responsibility for programmed logical expansion and has prezoned the area. RECOMMENDATION 4: The Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) should authorize a study by San Jose to explore ways by which San Jose may assume the functions o f Sanitation Districts 2 and 3. The tremendous population growth in Santa Clara County for the past decade has produced a shift from a predominantly rural to a predominantly urban pattern of development. Because o f this shift, the justification for the County to provide urban-type services has diminished and the need for the County to provide additional countywide programs, services, and facilities has in creased. With this change in urban pattern, the policy w ithin which new development takes place has changed. With regard to zoning, two examples demonstrate this evolution: a. On November 28, 1967, the Board of Supervisors adopted a resolution which “ discourages applications fo r zone changes and use permits in those situations where the development o f real property for residential, commercial, industrial, and all other urban uses require the existence of various public utilities and facilities such as water and storm and sanitary sewers, and such facilities are not available within unincorporated ter ritory o f the County.” b. On August 4, 1969, the City Council o f San Jose adopted the policy “ that, rather than accepting the County’s zoning, the Council will determine zoning of all areas annexed to the City, except those areas served by a Sanitation District.” Some years ago the City Council became concerned with conflicts over City-County zoning and adopted a policy of accepting the County zoning when the land was annexed. Ironically, this tended to shift the responsibility for unpopular zoning to the County. The Council now reviews County zoning upon annexation and grants the appropriate City zoning based on its merits. This policy, however, provides little incentive for new developments to annex to the City if necessary utilities are available from special districts, particularly, sewer districts. COUNTY RESPONSIBILITY TO PROPERTY OWNERS AND CITIZENS CITY RESPONSIBILITY AND CITIZENS The County is responsible to individual property owners to provide the level of services consistent with the type of development. Services to property owners in agricultural areas are different from those provided in urban areas. As more and more islands of unincorporated land are formed within the urban areas, it will become more costly for the County to serve these areas. For example, the sheriff will have to travel through large areas of incorporated land to respond to calls in unincorporated areas. The City should provide urban services to urban develop ment. Urban life as we know it needs many facilities and services which promote public health, safety, peace, comfort, convenience, and general welfare. The City is responsible for providing to each property owner and each citizen the fullest possible array of urban services to meet these needs. It is further its responsibility to provide these services at the lowest cost and the highest possible quality. Urban development cannot take place w ithout major public facilities and the massive investments required for their financing, including roads, sewers, and water. It is considered a right of every property owner to farm his land or to construct a home on his property. There is, however, no inherent obligation on the part of govern ment to rezone property to a more intense use. Zoning is used to “ promote and protect the public health, safety, peace, comfort, convenience, and general welfare.” The County may refuse to rezone land to multiple, com mercial, or industrial uses if it is deemed in the public interest. Therefore, it is possible that in designated areas the Board may adopt a policy of not rezoning land to urban uses. In this case, there is no damage to an individual property owner since no right is being taken from the owner. It is clear that the County is now assuming broader responsibility to the property owners and citizens of the entire County, including those w ithin cities. This respon sibility is to provide countywide services such as regional parks, transit facilities, expressways, health services, social services, tax assessment, etc. The County must continue to provide property-oriented services in non-urban areas; however, if a city takes the responsibility to provide the appropriate urban services in urban areas, then it is in the best interest of all citizens that this be done. TO PROPERTY OWNERS The timing, location, and construction o f these public facilities should be programmed so that designated areas are created in which urbanization can take place and a high level o f service can be secured. Public investment decisions will also promote an orderly government struc ture in which the citizens can effectively work together for community policy. Public facilities shape the physical, social, and economic form of the city. The ability to extend or refuse to extend utilities or services is a proper tool to use in guiding urban development. The City should encourage annexation of lands mostly surrounded by the City. Based on its General Plan, San Jose should clearly define urban development areas and prepare a program o f extending services to these areas on a staged basis. The staging should be related to population growth and land development trends. These areas should be considered for prezoning with public hearings held to determine the intended zoning classifications once the Sanitation Districts 2 and 3 without jeopardizing the interests of the citizens w ithin these districts by continuing to provide service to unincorporated property that is already developed and connected to the sewers. However, any new urban uses that need sewers should be required to annex to the City so that all necessary urban services may be provided at the same time. San Jose should conduct a study, an^l initiate discus sions with Districts 2 and 3, to determine the means of assuming the responsibility for providing sewer service in these areas. land is annexed. The hearings will give the citizens within these unincorporated areas the opportunity to participate in planning the future development of their land. Therefore, the City should become responsible for pro gramming development to incorporated areas and to unincorporated areas that will be urbanized and are within the immediate sphere o f influence o f the City. 4. CITY-COUNTY RESPONSIBILITY Assuming the City designates urban development areas and prezones, the Board of Supervisors may then adopt a policy of not rezoning these areas to urban uses, or may even rezone some areas to a holding zone which would permit all existing uses but would not allow urban subdivisions or more intense urban uses. The Board might encourage owners of clearly non urban land to apply the provisions of the Williamson Bill to prevent premature urbanization. III. STEPS RECOMMENDED TO CARRY OUT STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS A. B. C. SANITATION DISTRICTS In the past, Sanitation Districts 2 and 3 were formed to meet a pressing need. Residents did not wish to annex and San jose did not have an aggressive annexation policy. This situation has now changed. San Jose has annexed much of the land within these districts and the districts are well within the sphere of influence of San Jose. While, at one time, people were content just with sewers, they now expect a wider array of urban services. Furthermore, the rest of the San Jose urban community has a stake in maintaining a high level of service throughout the urban area. The responsibility for providing sewer service to the residents of the east San Jose area should be shifted entirely to San Jose. It is possible for San Jose to assume the functions of The County adopt policy recommendations 1 and 3. The City of San Jose adopt policy recommendations 2 and 4. Under the auspices o f the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO), the City of San Jose conduct a study, and initiate discussions with Sanitation Districts 2 and 3, to determine the means of assuming the responsibility for providing sewer service in these areas D. The City o f San Jose define urban development areas in cooperation with the County. E. The City o f San Jose prezone these urban development areas and request appropriate zoning action from the County. F. The County adopt appropriate policy and zoning designations for the designated urban development areas. Adopted unanimously by the Joint City-County Planning Com mittee, October 30, 1969. 151 WN-7657-NSF October 1971 ALTERNATIVE GROWTH STRATEGIES FOR SAN JOSE: INITIAL REPORT OF THE RAND URBAN POLICY ANALYSIS PROJECT Rand Urban Policy Analysis Group A WORKING NOTE prepared for the NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Thi s N o t e was p r e p a r e d t o f a c i l i t a t e co m m u n i c a ti o n o f p r e l i m in a r y research results. Views o r conclusions expressed h ere in may be te n ta tiv e and do n ot r e p r e s e n t t h e o f f i c i a l o p i n i o n o f the s p o n s o r i n g a ge n cy . Rand SANTA M O N IC A. CA 9040b 152 iii PREFACE AND SUMMARY The objective of the Rand Urban Policy Program is to provide assistance in the design and choice of policy options to makers of urban policy at a l l le v e ls from Federal to lo c a l. piece to th is paper, Rand Urban P o lic y 'Program: The companion S tra te g y f o r S e le c t io n o f C i t i e s and F ir s t-Y e a r Plan>* discusses our strategy for providing assistance in designing "national urban p o lic y ." This paper reports on the i n i t i a l phase of our f i r s t sp ecific lo cal analysis — that of growth in San Jose and i t s metropolitan area, Santa Clara County. Our immediate lo cal aims for the year’ s study we have begun are to provide several kinds of assistance to lo cal policymakers: 1. Arguments to use both with higher ju risd ictio n s and with lo cal constituencies. Our i n i t i a l analysis of San Jose has indicated that Federal and state p o lic ies constrain lo cal options su b sta n tia lly , and that these constraints are frequently inad vertent. With lo cal constituencies, o f f i c i a l s need data that show the d iffic u lt y of certain simple and one-sided solutions. 2. The other side of the relationship between o ffi c i a ls and constituencies is that o ffi c i a ls have need for the kind of analyses of lo c a l view s that we expect to provide. 3. We are a ssistin g local policymakers in designing and understanding o th e r -p a r a llel a n a ly tic a l programs. 4. We are helping to develop a n a ly tic a l t o o l s that local planners may use for ongoing operational purposes. 5. Most important, we are examining s p e c i f i c p o l i c y o p t io n s . The above l i s t places the most important type of assistance la st because our analytical methodology begins with careful id e n tific a tio n , structuring, and analysis of problem s as a preliminary to analyzing the e ffe c ts of p o l i c i e s on these problems. ’k Because this paper reports on Rand Corporation Working Note Number 7658-NSF, October, 1971. 153 f i r s t third of the year's program, the sp e c ific policy analysis is at an early stage. Nonetheless, the problem analysis we have done has led to several policy hypotheses. The most important have to do with the remarkably small space for policy decision l e f t to local o ffi c i a ls by the con strain ts and pressures stemming from Federal and state actions. Indeed, the explosive growth of San Jose and Santa Clara County is in large measure a direct e ffe c t of Federal m ilitary procurement policy which over two decades has b u ilt up the aerospace and electronics industry upon which the lo cal economy is based. has And this type of growth in turn led to the area's central dilemma — economic dependence upon rapid growth of a sort which seems to be degrading the "qu a lity of life * 1 in San Jose and Santa Clara County. To examine this dilemma, we have modelled and tested s t a t is t ic a lly two alternative a p r i o r i hypotheses about growth. One is that private and public well-being in Santa Clara County depends only on a high, s t a b le level of economic a c tiv ity . The other is that such well-being depends upon a rapid rate of economic grow th. The second hypothesis better f i t s the data. Using models developed for the analysis, we estimate that, starting frt»m unemployment at the 1970 le v e l: A 5 percent a year growth rate for ten years w ill leave the County in a slig h tly worse economic situation than at the beginning. I f the rate of growth starts at 5 percent and declines to 2 percent, the unemployment rate w ill rise to 9 - 15 percent, depending on other assumptions. Under the assumption that there will be a long term decline in high technology production (certainly a strong possibility for aerospace) unemployment will rise to near 20 percent. If growth is necessary to provide a moderately high level of economic w ell-being, what about the costs of such growth and how do the residents of the County view these costs? A County Transportation Planning Study survey found that residents had a strong interest in pre serving the beauty of their environment and in increasing the quiet, 154 privacy, and spaciousness of their surroundings. Further, these views were n ot limited to a minority of upper m iddle-class whites as is sometimes asserted. Growth thus presents a dilemma to the City and the County as a whole; i t also presents problems to the individual residents and to groups of residents. One i n i t i a l finding in this area has been that the ordinary id e n tific a tio n of "s o c ia l problems1' with problems of the low-income population is not en tirely correct for San Jose. At least one such problem — crime — seems from a preliminary analysis to be as much a problem of the middle class as of the poorer groups and areas. Many of the so cia l problems, of course, are associated with low income. Using a clustering technique based on ch aracteristics derived from a principal components analysis, Census tracts were divided into six clu sters: lowest-income areas; low-income small-household areas; large household working class neighborhoods; b e tte r -o ff small household areas; upper middle c la s s ; and affluent neighborhoods. This structuring has enabled us to begin examining both the current status of problems and their change from 1960 to 1966 to 1970, the three years for which data are available. Th6 most striking finding is that the rapid economic and demographic growth of Santa Clara County as a whole has had remarkably l i t t l e e ffe c t on the lowest-income tra c ts. appear to be true backwaters. They These tracts have the largest concentration of Mexican-Americans (the major Santa Clara County m inority), and the concentration is increasing over time. Thus, residen tial segregation in the County is increasing. Specific analysis has also begun in the so cia l areas of housing (which needs h elp ), health (in which, in te re stin g ly, the c r it ic a l areas were n o t the worst o ff by the infant mortality index used), and education (where we have begun to examine segregation and w ill do more when 1970 Census data on Mexican-American population becomes a v a ila b le ). Growth is based in large measure on Federal action; the dilemmas and problems of growth stem from the fa ilu re of lo cal authorities to cope 155 with such manifestations of growth as uncontrolled building and speculation leading to urban sprawl. here too. But Federal policy has played a major role Theoretically, City and County authorities could have resisted the pressures to annex, to rezone, and to do a ll the other things that permitted the sprawl. P o litic a lly , however, the speculative pressures were so great as to be v ir tu a lly uncontrollable. And a major reason for such pressures has been the incentive to real estate speculation coming from the break given to such speculation on the Federal income tax. We have estimated, for example, that the money flowing to Santa Clara County in one year from ju st one of a number of tax advantages — capital gains treatment of speculative gains — is greater than the total expenditure in the County of the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the same year. This is an example of the effe c ts of existing "national urban p o lic y " and, lik e much of this p o licy, i t s urban effe c ts are unintended. Yet such Federal pressures and constraints (and other sorts of constraints from the State of California) may have more e ffe c t on local outcomes than can any policy made at the local le v e l. This is why the "arguments" we present for local o f f i c i a l s to use in trying the change these pressures and constraints may be as useful to them as our analysis of the policy options that are open to them. Nonetheless, there are policy options open below the Federal le v e l, and we have begun to examine them. Most of the more promising p o s s ib ilitie s involve a combination of permissive action by the State and implementation by the City or County. For example, Santa Clara County’ s a b ility to cope with problems has been lessened by ju risd ic tio n a l Balkanization and competitive annexation; the creation under State law of a Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) has helped avoid new competition, but has not helped meliorate the e ffe c ts of the past. Sim ilarly, the Williamson Act, a State attempt to help overcome the problem of agricultural land forced into urbanization by being taxed at urban rates, has been used by San Jose but has not yet been rea lly e ffe c tiv e . Indeed, perhaps the most e ffe c tiv e agent for change w ill be a recent decision by the California Supreme Court which may force the State government to supplement or even supplant out of State general revenues, expenditures on education 156 that have u n til now been supported by the local property tax. I f the incentive steming from local desires for more property tax revenues is removed, the changes wrought may be greater than those possible from any set of rules or administrative devices. It may well be, in any case, that new tax revenue brought in by new growth is su bstantially exceeded by the long run public costs of this new growth. This is something that has been suspected for some time by San Jose City o ffic ia ls ', i t seems to be confirmed in general by some of our growth modelling. An important part of our program of policy analysis w ill be to estimate d irectly the revenue and public cost e ffe c ts of new development of differen t types, using the cluster analysis discussed above as a b asis. Growth is lik e ly to continue in San Jose and Santa Clara County, a lb eit at a slower rate than that of the la st twenty years. By building baseline projections of this growth and the problems i t causes, we are able to begin testin g the e ffe c ts of alternative policy options at Federal, State, and lo cal le v e ls , for avoiding the problems, solving them, or meliorating their e ffe c ts . In addition, we can use San Jose as an i n i t i a l sample point for generalizations bearing on "national urban p o lic y " of differen t types. This process of generalization is discussed more fu lly in Rand Urban P o lic y Program: S tra te g y f o r S e le c t io n o f C i t i e s and F ir s t -Y e a r Plan. But even within the confines of Santa Clara County, hypotheses are beginning to emerge for testing as national statements. The e ffe c ts of growth induced by m ilitary procurement and the importance of Federal tax p o lic ies are becoming clear for the local area; they must be tested elsewhere before valid generalizations can be drawn. And, beyond immediate policy issu es, San Jose and Santa Clara County are beginning to appear as prototypes of a major national dilemma of the future. The lo cal dilemma of economic dependence on growth, as against the effe c ts of growth in causing sprawl, is in a sense a microcosm of the recently recognized national dilemma of economy versus ecology. This is a theme we w ill undoubtedly be pursuing in our urban analyses across the country. 157 ix CONTENTS PREFACE AND SUMMARY................................................. Section I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. THE PARADOX OF GROWTH ........................................................................... Santa Clara's Economic Dependence On Growth ...................... Hypotheses ........................................................................................... A S t a tis t ic a l Model ....................................................................... The E ffects of Growth: "Urban Sprawl" And The Texture of Life ........................................................................... Geographic Spread ........................................................................... Attitudes Toward Growth .............................................................. Benefits And Costs of Growth .............................*........................ 25 25 26 36 III. SOCIAL PROBLEMS ......................................................................................... The Population ...................................................................................... Housing ...................................................................................................... Health ........................................................................................................ Education .................................................................................................. Crime ..................................................... .................................................... Further Research On Social Problems ........................................ 37 37 51 53 56 58 61 IV. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................ Levels And Types of Policy Assistance .................................... Policy Hypotheses ................................................................................ The Lack of Policy Space for Local Decision-Makers ........... ............................................................... National P olicies ........................................................................... State and Local Policy ................................................................ 66 66 69 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................. 100 Appendix A. PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS TO OBTAIN CENSUS TRACT CLUSTERS .................................................................................. 102 II. V. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 1 7 7 7 11 69 72 86 158 I. INTRODUCTION On the f i r s t v i s i t of the Rand Urban Policy Analysis team to San Jose, shortly a fter the July 1 in itia tio n of NSF Planning Grant GI-29763, a number of us attended a civic luncheon at which Mayor Norman Mineta presented his State of the City address. Before the speech began, a Rand analyst asked a gentleman sittin g across the table from him, "What do you think San Jose and Santa Clara County’ s major problem i s ? " The reply went something lik e th is : ing us. State. " I t ’ s growth. Growth is k i l l This v alley used to be one of the most beautiful areas in the Now i t ’ s hardly worth livin g in . We have got to stop the growth here or at least slow i t down." "T h at's in terestin g . Incidentally, what business are you in ?" asked the Rand analyst. "Construction’. " This b rief dialogue encapsulates the dilemma of San Jose, and Santa Clara County, in which i t is the major c it y . * When City Manager Thomas Fletcher asked us to carry out an analysis to a ssist him in designing p o lic ies to guide growth in San Jose, we knew that both the economy and the population of San Jose had been growing explosively for two decades and we assumed that the problems and policy needs consequent upon growth were well worth analytical in vestigation. We laid out a research strategy that was an application to San Jose of our general method of making base line projections of where the area is going under current p o lic ie s to be able to estimate the d iffe re n tia l e ffe c ts of possible new p o lic ie s . ** Although this project was set up i n i t i a l ly at the request of San Jose c ity o f f i c i a l s , i t was recognized from the beginning that San Jose’ s growth had to be considered within the context of Santa Clara County, which constitutes the entire San Jose Standard Metropolitan S ta tis tic a l Area. Fortunately, both San Jose and Santa Clara County o ffi c i a ls are highly professional and are in large measure devoted to common goals. This enables us to consider the growth problem as a whole and to work c lo sely with both sets of o f f i c i a l s . ** For more d e ta il on this general research strategy and i t s applica tion to San Jose, see Rand's proposal for the Planning Grant under which 159 -2 - To say that growth i s a problem of San Jose and Santa Clara, however, is not to say why i t is a problem. Growth in i t s e l f is a rela tiv e ly neutral phenomenon insofar as personal and so cia l well-being are con cerned. In some ways and in some cases, growth adds to w ell-being; in other ways and cases, i t detracts. Economic growth, for example, adds to the resources available to people, but in doing so, i t uses up other re sources. And in an area like San Jose, economic growth may a ttract more people, needing and using more resources. This duality — these two aspects of growth — seemed cen tral, but their in terrelation was d if fic u lt to pin down. When we asked why they were concerned about growth, City Manager Fletcher and his top s t a ff answered that growth had been a way of l i f e in San Jose for so long that i t affected everything they did, every decision they made, every service provided by the c ity , every tax taken in. But they did not, even when pressed, point to any sp e c ific social or physical problem caused by or related to growth. I t became clear that these public o ffi c i a ls wanted us to help them identify and define a set of issues they knew existed but could not put their finger on, at least as much as they wanted assistance in solving w ell-defined problems. The i n i t i a l issue for an analysis of growth in San Jose and Santa Clara, therefore, must be formulated as a set of questions: Should the o ffi c i a ls and citizen s of the area be worried about growth, and i f so, why? What positive and negative effe c ts has growth had, and w ill i t have, upon the well-being of the population? What p o lic ies can promote the positive and minimize the negative effects? The general hypothesis with which we began is that responsible local o ffic ia ls should in fact be worried about growth; our objective is to confirm or deny this hypothesis, d e ta il i t , give i t quantitative expression, and lay out the policy consequences. What particular the current work is being carried out, dated 16 April 1971, particularly pages 3 to 7; and the current proposal of which this preliminary report on the planning grant is a part, dated 6 July 1971, particularly pages 4 to 16. 160 -3 - aspects of growth should be of concern? What degrees of growth are lik e ly to bring about what sp e cific e ffe c ts? Beneath the general hypothesis,our preliminary examination of San Jose — based both on dis cussions with public o f f i c i a l s and others, and on data analysis — has led us to concentrate i n i t i a l ly on two problem areas that may ju s t ify the concern and c a ll for new p o lic ie s . The f i r s t i s the issue illu stra te d by the anecdote with which this report began. The fe e lin g , on the one hand, that the area is heavily dependent economically on growth but, on the other hand, that both the economic and the population growth that has taken place may have lowered the "qu ality of l i f e ” and that further growth might lower i t more, seems to be the basic paradox behind City Manager Fletcher's concern and that of others. What bothers them is the im plicit b e lie f that they desper- a tely need growth but are at the same time choking on i t . * Our ana l y t ic a l task is both to evaluate the horns of this dilemma (and the work to date has begun to confirm that Santa Clara has in fact both depended on growth and been hurt by i t ) , and to make sure that i t is a dilemma, in the eyes of the residents of the area. Is the citizen ry re a lly con cerned with "sprawl" and i t s concomitants, or is this an issue only for public o f f i c i a l s , environmentalists, and those citize n s who are p u b licspirited enough to attend civic luncheons, lik e the construction man of the i n i t i a l anecdote? Our analysis is beginning to indicate that con cern with such issues is broadly based, but this is by no means conclu sive and needs further confirmation. The other fundamental set of issues concerns the complex e ffe c ts growth may have on so cia l problems in San Jose. The phrase "s o c ia l problems" is sometimes used as a shorthand for problems of m inorities and the poor. In San Jose this is p a rtia lly the case, and one focus of The fear is exacerbated by the fact that recent growth i s well below expectations. The Census Bureau reports the 1970 population of Santa Clara County to be 1,0 65,0 00 . This is below the "Extreme Low" forecast of 1,072,000 for 1970 population made by the County Planning Department in 1968. 161 _4_ our investigation w ill be poor housing and other problems of the mostly Mexican-American minority group and other poor. Our i n i t i a l finding is that i f the explosive growth of the la st two decades has affected this portion of the population at a l l — which i t hasn't very much — i t has been to hurt them. These formulations of the two central issues — the benefits and costs of growth, and the e ffe c ts of growth on social problems — d iffe r substantially from what has become something of a standard formula for analysis and discussion of San Jose and Santa Clara County. Because San Jose in particular has been perceived as the prototypical example of "Urban Sprawl" — geographical spread without rhyme or reason, without concern for open space, aesth etics, environment, pollution , sense of community, or even crowding of individuals is an overall pattern of jumbled spread — much of the previous analysis of the area has examined closely the proximate factors associated with the geographical pattern of settlem ent. Particular attention has been paid to the zoning and annexation p o lic ies of the City of San Jose. * The City of San Jose did, in fa c t, grow from 17 square miles in 1950 to 137 square miles in 1970, and i f a c i t y ’ s sprawl can be defined, certainly this e ig h t-fo ld growth comes close to the d e fin itio n . As the c i t y 's area has increased by annexation, the newly annexed areas have f i l le d with housing tracts and people, as have other parts of Santa Clara County. Nonetheless, our preliminary examination has con vinced us - - not that the class of p o licies exemplified by annexation and zoning are unimportant — i f there are solutions to the paradoxes of growth, many of them are lik e ly to li e here — but that analysis of these p o licies lo g ic a lly fo llo w s examination of the causes and e ffe c ts of growth i t s e l f . Growth — economic growth f i r s t , followed by popula tion growth — has forced rapid change in Santa Clara County. & "Sprawl" See, for example, Stanford Environmental Law Society, San J o s e : Spraw ling C ity > March 1961, and the Nader Report on C alifornia, with Robert Fellmeth as Project Director, Power and Land in C a lifo r n ia s in which Chapter VI, "The Urban-Suburban Complex" is devoted primarily to Santa Clara County. 162 -5 - has been a consequence of th is growth, and a consequence that might have been avoided in some measure, at le a s t. But after two decades of such growth, Santa Clara could not possibly have resembled the land of orchards and vineyards i t was in 1950. This difference of approach has important implications both for understanding past policy and affectin g future p o licy. The rapid econ omic and demographic expansion of the past has been due largely to factors not under the control of lo c a l decisionmakers — factors lik e national m ilitary procurement p o lic ie s , and federal tax p o lic ie s. Local p o lic ies of the two decades have provided far le ss than optimal adapta tion to this growth; y et, to treat local decisionmakers as i f they could have held the borders of Santa Clara against industry and people misses the point. Sim ilarly, future options for lo c a l policy must be evaluated in terms of the pressures that w ill e x is t. And since these pressures w ill stem in part from national and state p o lic ie s , a f u l l policy anal y s is w ill have to evaluate these p o licies in terms of their lo cal e ffe c ts , suggesting options at these levels as w e ll. The next section of th is report discusses the paradox of growth — the dilemma of San Jose and Santa Clara’ s economic dependence upon con tinued rapid growth, and the costs of th is growth in terms of the "q u a lity " of l i f e . Looking f i r s t at the economics, certain hypotheses are structured, tested by use of s t a t is t ic a l models, and their implica tions discussed. The geographic spread of that growth is then taken up, and i n i t i a l analysis of c itize n attitudes toward "sprawl" and other aspects of quality of l i f e is described. The ultimate objective is to present the broad benefits and the costs of d ifferen t rates and types of growth, as a guide to evaluating policy options for controlling this growth. Section I I I considers the areafs so cia l problems and their relation to growth. Santa Clara County census tracts are divided into six clu s te r s, according to their socio-economic structure. Looking primarily at the worst o ff c lu ster, the analysis describes s t a t is t ic a lly the cur rent and recent nature of the problems in housing, education, and health, 163 -6and investigates some aspects of change for three years in which some (not completely commensurable) data are available — 1960, 1966, and 1970. In addition to the problems of low-income residents, this section discusses the incidence of crime, a so cia l problem which, in San Jose at le a st, is not particularly associated with poverty. Section IV begins analysis of the policy implications of the prob lems we have id en tified and structured. Basic to our analytical method is detailed problem analysis as a basis for evaluation of alternative policy options. For that reason, this report on the f i r s t four months of the year’ s study s t i l l has le ss to say about p o licies than about prob lem areas. Nonetheless, some important implications for policy have been generated as hypotheses from the early analysis, and these are delineated here. Section V contains some b rief general conclusions. 164 -7 - II. THE PARADOX OF GROWTH SANTA CLARA'S ECONOMIC DEPENDENCE ON GROWTH Hypotheses Our primary hypothesis is that, on the one side, private and nublie econo mic well-being in Santa Clara County depend not merely upon a high and stable le v e l of economic a c tiv ity , but upon a rapid rate of economic growth as such; on the other side, such rapid growth degrades the gen eral well-being by lowering the "q u a lity " of living in a number of ways imperfectly subsumed in the phrase "Urban Sprawl." Looking f i r s t at the p o s s ib ility of the economic dependence of Santa Clara on growth as such, the in itia l attempts have been to define both private and public economic w ell-being. As a f i r s t cut, we have defined private well-being in terms of su ffic ie n t jobs to support the population of the County; public well-being is defined as the a b ility of public ju risd ictio n s to support adequate levels and mixtures of public services without "in to le ra b le " tax rate increases. nitions are s t i l l general. (These d e fi The variables used in our f i r s t cut are precisely defined in the models set forth and estimated below.) The alternative to our hypothesis that the growth paradox exists in a strong fashion is that these two types of well-being have in the past been, and w ill in the future be, supported by high but rela tiv e ly stable levels of economic a c tiv ity . On the private side, this would imply that a gradual increase in economic a ctiv ity (at a rate no faster than the national average, for example) would make possible the contin uation of high income levels and low levels of unemployment. On the public side i t would mean that the high average level of family income that ex ists in Santa Clara County i s su ffic ie n t to provide the tax revenues to support the public service demands of this high-income population. Were these two hypothetical statements true, the lik e ly policy implication would be that Santa Clara and San Jose should exert every influence to stop further economic growth or slow i t down dras t ic a lly — because, as the construction man in the opening anecdote 165 -8 - said, the urban sprawl induced by growth is unarguably degrading the beauty and the amenities of this once lovely County of orchards. Our fear, however, (and more important than the fact that i t is our fear is that im p licitly i t is the fear that makes Santa Clarans worry about the cessation of growth without quite being sure why) is that the above-hypothesized dependence of economic well-being upon stab le, high levels of economic a ctiv ity and income is simply not the case. A less attractive hypothesis, then, would be that the area has in the past depended upon i t s rapid growth rate; i f growth were to cease or to slow down sharply, well-being would not merely level o f f , but in a number of important and measurable dimensions would drop very sharply. S ta tis tic a l modeling and testing of the two alternative hypotheses — stable prosperity and growth dependence — seems to indicate that the growth dependence hypothesis better f i t s the data. Before describing the models and discussing their im plications, however, i t is useful to d eta il the growth dependence hypothesis in narrative terms. The hypo thesis can be broken down into four parts: 1. The maintenance of even a steady number of jobs in San Jose and Santa Clara County depends not merely upon a steady level of productive economic a c tiv ity , but upon a rapidly increasing level of production. Nationally, technological progress has meant that the same number of workers have produced increasing output year after year; although the data are imperfect, the same is clearly true in the highly technological industries which form the economic base of Santa Clara County. In Santa Clara's future, as in i t s past, therefore, i t may take a r e la tiv ely rapidly increasing level of production to support even a steady number of jobs — running increasingly faster to stay in the same place. 2. In addition, the hypothesis postulates that population growth of Santa Clara County and San Jose is a consequence of the growth in employment, but only with time lags that mean even a sta b iliza tio n of the number of jobs (under the continued production growth condition pos tulated in (1) above) would cease attracting people to the County only a fter a while, so that with available jobs sta b ilized , numbers of job 166 -9 - seekers would continue to increase, leading to unemployment and d istre ss. The s t a t i s t i c a l analysis discussed in d e ta il below bears this out with particular reference to jobs in aerospace and other high-technology indus t r ie s . Furthermore, while there is some evidence that in the earlier aerospace mini-recession of 1964 to 1965, the job/population attraction relationship was reversib le, since Santa Clara’ s engineers and technolo g ists could find jobs in other parts of the state or country, the current general downturn in this industry apparently means that the relationship i s now less reversible — the job-seeking population is not moving out of the County. 3. On the ’’public w ell-being'1 side, the growth-dependence hypothe s is would suggest that the a b ility of local ju risdiction s to support sa tisfa cto ry services without major tax increases is also dependent upon growth rather than stable prosperity. To support the expanding services called for by an expanding and increasingly demanding population without major tax rate increases, the tax base must expand commensurately with the service demand. The local tax base in California consists primarily o f the assessed property valuation, upon which property taxes are levied, and r e ta il sales from which the local (and also the state) portion of the r e ta il sales tax is drawn. I t is possible (and would f i t within the alternative stable-economy hypothesis) that these tax bases grow as fast as, and in roughly the same time pattern as, the demand for services. Were th is true, the economy would s t a b iliz e , and stable services could be supported out of stable revenues at stable tax rates. The growth- dependence hypothesis outlined here, suggests that the growth of tax base consequent upon any industrial or population expansion (particularly the former) comes ea rlier in time than the growth of service demands induced primarily by the increasing population. Were this the case (and A Survey of Santa Clara County residents, taken in 1965 (reported in Santa Clara County's comprehensive transportation and land planning study, Environm ental A ttitu d e s Study: Summary o f F in dings3 May 1967), showed more than two-thirds of the respondents reporting business and job opportunities as a very important reason for their moving to the County, and over half making i t the primary reason. Unfortunately, no information was gathered that might throw ligh t on any time lag between perceived opportunity and actual move. 167 -1 0 - i t seems to be borne out by our s t a t is t ic a l a n a ly sis), each growth incre ment would produce a new tax base early and new costs only la te r, with the cost being dependent for financing upon the n e x t increment of growth/ In other words, by this hypothesis, Santa Clara and San Jose have been mortgaging their future — the fa ilu re to rea lize the next increment would mean a necessary substantial rise in tax r a te s to support the ser vice demands consequent on the la st increment. A cessation or slowdown of growth could mean that the mortgage could come due, necessitating sub sta n tia l tax rate increases to support continuing high levels of public services. 4. This, too, is i n i t i a l ly supported by our s t a t i s t i c a l analysis. The fin a l step in the growth-dependence hypothesis suggests that this dependence might even be greater than is postulated by the above steps relatin g population variables to economic variables on a lagged basis. It seems obvious that the b e lie f so strongly held over the past decades in continued growth has led to speculation in land and construc tion . A cessation or severe slowdown of growth, then, could lead to a failu re to rea lize speculative expectations — fa ilu re to f i l l the tract houses, s e l l the land at a p r o fit, generate su ffic ie n t r e t a il sales in the new shopping centers, etc . — and thus lead to exacerbation of the other negative consequences of an end to growth. We are suggesting that not only may much of the job structure and public revenue structure of the area have been dependent upon the v e a l variables of growth, but the structure may have been additionally dependent upon speculators’ b e lie f in this growth. An end to growth could collapse both together. The data abundantly bear out the fact of land speculation as a major phenomenom in Santa Clara County, but we have not yet included this in our functional models. One counterargument to this i s that new population produces new, expensive demands for public capital goods ( e .g ., schools) immediately on a rr iv a l. In terms of real resource expenditures, this is quite pos sib ly true, but in the terms of public money expenditures, which are the issue here, one-time costs are spread out by use of bond funds for cap ita l expenditures. 168 - li- A S ta tis tic a l Model The alternative hypotheses were tested and the growth-dependence hypothesis chosen over the stable prosperity hypothesis, by testing alternative models — sets of econometric equations representing func tional relationships among the relevant variables. The models examined were structured as quantified specification s of the two alternative hypotheses presented verbally in the four steps laid out immediately above. (It is important to point this out, because econometric explora tions are sometimes carried out by using the power of modem computers to correlate everything with everything, and seeing "what works." was not our procedure.) This Using ordinary le ast squares regression (with a few exceptions noted), each functional equation was estimated and tested with various lags of the type that are postulated by the growthdependence hypothesis and, a lte rn a tiv ely, without la gs, as is implied by the stable prosperity hypothesis. Because both preliminary analysis and our own preconceptions favored growth dependence, assumptions were made wherever possible to favor s t a b ilit y . The fin a l choices of equa tion s, which f i t the growth-dependence hypothesis with few exceptions, were based on standard s t a t is t ic a l c r ite r ia — £-tests for parameters, and standard errors of estimate and percent errors for equations. These c riteria show the equations and c o e fficie n ts presented below to be sta t is t i c a l ly sign ifica n t throughout. What we end up with i s not a single model, but a set of alternative growth-dependence models, with certain of the functional relationships presented in the form of altern ative equations, to explore the sensi t iv ity of the system to certain plausible variations. quantitative descriptions of structure. The models provide In addition to the equations themselves, we also present some ten-year projections produced by the models. These are intended as illu str a tio n s of the policy implications of the structure being described, not as predictions, unconditional or conditional. The variables of the model a l l refer to data from Santa Clara County, for the years 1949-1970. They are: 169 M = One year net in-migration (? v thousands of people) Source: N Santa Clara Count}; Planning Department. = Total Employment in a given year (in thousands of people) . Source: California Department of Human Resources Development. H N 1:5 Employment in "High Technology" Industries, defined as Aerospace Manufacturing (Ordnance + E lectrical Machinery + Instruments), plus N on-electrical Machinery, (in thousands of people) . Source: California Department of Human Resources Development. N^ = Employment in Other Export Industries, defined as a ll manuH facturing not covered in N plus Agriculture plus Federal Employment (in thousands of people). Source: California Department of Human Resources Development. N^ = Employment in Export Industries (N^ + N^) (in thousands of people). Source: California Department of Human Resources Development. N^ = Employment in Local Industries — those primarily serving the lo cal population — defined as a l l employment not included in N (in thousands of people). Source: California Department of Human Resources Development. H VA = Value added in a given year by High-Technology Industries (in m illions of d o lla r s ). Source: P Estimates based on U.S. Census of Manufactures. - Population in a given year (in thousands of people). Source: Santa Clara County Planning Department. 170 -1 3 - MV = Total Market Value of Property in a given year (in m illions of d o lla r s ). Source: Santa Clara County Planning Department. RS = Total Value of R etail Sales in a given year (in m illions of d o lla r s ). Source: Y California Department of Finance. = Total Personal Income in a given year (in m illions of d o lla r s). Source: Santa Clara County Planning Department. U = Total Unemployment in a given year (in thousands of people) Source: California Department of Human Resources Development. T = a time w e i g h t 1949=1, 1 9 5 0 = 2 ,.... Subscript t refers to time in years. A = refers to year-to-year changes in the variables. 2 A = refers to change of year-to-year change. The presence of a strong trend in the period of analysis made any estimates based on levels of variables unreliable. (A ll variables except migration could be s u ffic ie n tly and sig n ific a n tly "explained" by only their own past v alu es.) In estimating the model, therefore, a l l variables were restricted to changes in value, with the exception of migration, which already approximates the f i r s t differences in popu la tio n . N (Total Employment) is a variable of primary policy in te re st, particularly in i t s relation to P (Population); the question is whether there w ill be enough future jobs to support future population in the sty le to which i t has become accustomed. In certain of the equations, H X N (Employment in High-Technology Industries) is preferred to N , employ ment in "Export" industries, a variable with which we worked i n i t i a lly . Either of these can be considered, exogenous to the system, being deter mined primarily by national demand, business location decisions, and 171 -1 4 - related fa cto rs; the key policy question is whether variations in such exogenous variables drive Santa Clara’ s economy, and i f so, how. High Technology Industry consists of Aerospace (as defined by the California Department of Human Resources Development) plus Non-Electrical Machinery, which includes manufacture of Computers; IBM is important in the local economy, and we believe i t to be more lik e than unlike aerospace. In the equations where High Technology Industry was s t a t i s t i c a lly preferred to Export Industry, N° (Other Export Industry) is treated as a residual; Employment in Local Industry is endogenous: to the system, depending upon local population to be served. H VA (Value Added in High Technology Industry) is not essen tial to the functioning of the rest of the system, but is included because the H H year-to-year growth in productivity (VA /N ) means that increasing pro duction is needed to support a constant level of employment, thus exac erbating the County’ s growth problem. VA^ is estimated not by regression, but by examination of both lo cal and national data. The year-to-year H H growth of VA /N is set at 3 percent, which is conservative (from the point of view of establishing the growth-dependence hypothesis) since i t is less than the national increase in productivity. MV (Total Property Value) is the property tax base, the increase of which is the alternative to an increase of tax r a t e s as demand for public services and their costs increase. Market Value rather than Assessed Value was used because the former is a more consistent se r ie s, based on some version of "tr u e " value, before the assessment policy adjustments made p erio d ically. The MV series was smoothed by a five-year moving average, because reevaluation of individual parcels of property takes place on this sort of cycle. RS (Total Value of Retail Sales) is the base for the R etail Sales Tax, part of which reverts to the lo c a lit ie s . Y (Total Personal Income) and U (Unemployment) f i t the standard d e fin itio n s . The model (with equations ( 1 .1 ) , ( 1 .2 ) , ( 1 .3 ) , and (4 .1 ) and (4 .2 ) used as alternatives for reasons discussed below) is as follow s: The number in parentheses 172 -1 5 - below the co e fficie n ts are t-v a lu e s, Su is the standard error of the estimate, and p .e . i s the mean percentage error with which the equation predicts the le v e l of the dependent variable in the period of estima tio n . The equations presented without t-v a lu e s, standard errors, and percentage errors, were not estimated by regression; equations 2, 6, 7, and 9 are based on rough estimates. 1 .1 M„ t rH .8338 Mt_ 1 + .866 A N“ , --------“t - i 1 *— “ ‘V i (9.87) (2.02) Mt = Mt _ 1 + 1.29 A Su = 6 .8 _ 0/ /CT/ p‘ ’ " Su = 5 .0 p .e . = 17.9% (4 .1) Mt = 28.327 + .83 A - (3.14) .946 Su = 8 .7 (2.05) p ,e * 31,2% Pt = 1.013 Pt _ 1 + M A = .169 A Pt _ 1 + .002 A (4 .7 ) (3 .3 ) A MVt = 9.68 Mt _>1 + .949 A Yfc (8,02) A MV = 13.37 A t (3.32) A RS (5.35) _. + 13.87 M _ t -1 t -2 (14.09) = ,273 A P (1.77) + .344 AY " (2 .44 ) Su = 2.5 p .e . = 1.6% Su = 58.1 p*e * = 1,2% Su = 79.9 _ 1,DJ/o ?,e> Su = 37.3 P-e ‘ " 4 ' 3% NH = .61 NX - NX - N° (a) (VAX/NX) c = 1 . 0 3 (VAX/NX) t _1 (b) ('’Ar‘ / T ‘) t = 1.03 (VAH/NH) 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 2 173 - AY = .584 (1.03 (T(Nt ) (T 16 - 1) (N ^ )) C5.27) (6.57) Ut = .426 Pt - (N* + Equations ( 1 .1 ) , + 11.27 A Su = 37.06 p .e . = 1.9% n£) ( 1 .2 ) , and (1 .3 ) are a ltern a tiv es. The fi r s t two show Migration this year as a function of Migration the year before and a lagged rate of change or ra te -o f-r a te of change in High Technology industry. Equation ( 1 .2 ) , which uses as the employment variable r a te o f change of employment change, the difference of the change from two years ago to la st year, minus the change from three years ago to two years ago (a second difference, in other words), is s t a t is t ic a lly prefer able to the other two, with c o e fficie n ts that are more sign ifica n t and a lower standard error of estimate for the equation. Equation (1 .1 ) was retained because, while i t s form f i t s the growth-dependence hypothesis, i t is more conservative. Equation ( 1 .3 ) , while i t is s t a t is t ic a lly the least relia b le of the three was retained to give the stable prosperity hypothesis a greater chance. This equation brings in unemployment as well as employment and "encourages" unemployed workers to emigrate rela tiv e ly rapidly, thus lowering the within-Santa Clara County negative effe c ts of economic decline. The substantive interpretation of equations (1 .1 ) and (1 .2 ) is that Migration depends on (a) la st year's Migration, a relationship which is lik e ly to be based upon both a tendency of people to follow people, because of extended family and friendship connections and upon the increase in lo c a l employment resulting from population increase (Migra tion) which induces more Migration (see equation 3) and (b) the change in employment in those industries lik e Aerospace whose high pay and glamour a ttract new population to the County. But adjustment is not instantaneous, and i t is la st y ear's increase in employment: which attracts the new population. It is th is relationship, as much as any other, that means that Santa Clara is dependent on growth, because the lags imply that new employment growth is needed to support Population already in place. And i t turns out that although the (1 .3) version mutes this 174 -1 7 - relationship somewhat by assuming more rapid and stronger demographic response to economic change, the dependence on growth remains, even under this formulation. Equation (2) is a near identity showing that Population is the sum of la s t year’ s Population m ultiplied by a factor of 1.013, which repre sents an estimate of recent low (and thus conservative) natural popula tion increase, plus new Migration. Equation (3) shows changes in Local Employment to be a function of lagged changes in Income, and lagged changes in the Population to be served by Local Employment. This is a very important set of lags. It indicates that the chain of events set in course by an autonomous increase in Export Employment can continue to increase Local Employment, and Population to take the lo c a l job s, for some time a fter Export Employ ment s ta b iliz e s or turns down. Equations (4 .1 ) and (4 .2 ) on change of per capita Market Value of property (the property tax base) illu s tr a te two alternative concepts of causation for this change. Equation (4 .1 ) assumes that market value is primarily a function of population and income change, with new industrial a c tiv ity (as represented by export employment) a ffectin g these variables through equations (1) and (8 ). Equation (4 .2 ) assumes that new industrial a c tiv ity directly a ffe c ts the tax base. Both equations have sim ilar s t a t i s t i c a l significance and a preference between the two w ill have to stem from further detailed study of sp e cific year-to-year changes in the county. At this point, we present them both, as a ltern atives. As w ill be noted below, they have sim ilar im plications, since they both u l t i mately depend on sim ilar lagged cause-effect relation ship s, but (4 .1) indicates more optimism for future tax base, simply because the more complicated lag structure works more slowly to reduce the tax base as growth slows down. Equation (5) shows change in the Retail Sales tax base to be a function of contemporaneous change in Population and lagged change in Income. 175 - 18 - Equation (6) simply p a r t i txou s nology and Other. Employment between High Tech For purposes of estimating the equations in which High Technology Employment is a variable, actual data on employment in the relevant industries was used. Export Employment and both of its compo nents are exogenous to the system, however, and since we have no way of predicting the relationship of the two exogenous components to one. another, we simply used their rela tiv e values for recent years, which were quite stable at about the levels shown. Equation (7a) and (7b) build into the model the assumed 3 percent increase in productivity discussed above. Equation (8) shows change in personal income as a function of •changes in employment in the county. The complex in i t i a l term involving Export Employment builds into income of employees of these industries a wage increase based on the same 3 percent productivity increase assumed in equation (7 a ). Equation (9) calculates unemployment as a residual, assuming the same labor force participation rate ( i . e . , .426) as in the base year of 1970, and subtracting estimated employment from the labor force thus estimated. The question of trends in labor force participation is a d if fic u lt one that has never been sa tisfa c to r ily resolved conceptually or s t a t i s t i c a lly for the nation. I f the actual participation rate were to be lower in 1980 than is assumed here, (with participation dropping b eca u se of lack of jobs) the stated unemployment would be less, but the e ffe c t on private economic well-being in the county might be about the same as that implied by the unemployment rates estimated here. The structure of the model, with i t s best estimates of lags includ ing one-year la gs, two-year la gs, and lags of lags ( i . e . , the second- derivative r a te -o f-r a te of change relationship) shows that Santa Clara County adapts only gradually to changes in factors imposed on i t by nonCounty decisions — changes in the exogenous values of the various com ponents of Export Employment, and changes in Export Production (Value Added, which in our formulation is the precise equivalent of Employment Times P rod u ctivity). This represents the preliminary confirmation of 176 -1 9 - the growth'-dependence model. So long as rapid growth continues, the lags do not hurt the County, because the new population with i t s need for jobs and services which has been attracted to the County by la st year’ s eco nomic growth (or that of the year before) w ill have i t s needs taken care of by this year's and next year’ s economic growth. But i f economic growth ceases or slows down d r a stic a lly , the lags mean that the population and the need for jobs and the need for public services keep increasing for a time, but the new base for supporting them does not m aterialize. It is possible to illu s tr a te the meaning of the model and project the economic and demographic consequences of various rates of growth, by making various numerical assumptions about growth and tracing their flow through the model for a ten-year time period beginning with 1971. It should be emphasized that what follows is in no sense a prediction of what wiVL happen to Santa Clara County, and is only in a general way a pro je c tio n of what might happen, given the assumptions. For each of the following runs through the model, the i n i t i a l assump tions consist of a set of starting values for the v ariab les, taken from data for years previous to the starting date of the projections, and assumptions about the rate of change of Value Added in Export Industries and in High Technology Industries. The rate of change in Value Added, then, is the exogenous variable through which alternative growth assump tions are expressed. The structure of the Income equation (8) is important here. The time- weighting was constructed in such a way that i t would (a) allow for changes in the s k i ll and wage levels of Export Employment and (b) d elib erately overstate, in projection , the growth of Personal Income (and, consequently, the growth of Local Employment, Total Market Value, and Total Retail Sales). The e ffe c t on Income of increases in Export Employ ment is exaggerated; the e ffe c t of decreases is damped. Thus the pro jection s are made under the set of assumptions most favorable to the s t a b ility hypothesis. Table 1 shows resu lts as of 1.980 for four variables of policy in te re st, of four sets of assumptions about future rates of growth of Value Added by Hig h Technology and Export industries in Santa Clara County: 5 percent 177 -2 0 annual growth; 3 percent; 2 percent; and a 1 percent annual d eclin e.* Each set of assumptions has been run six times: f i r s t for the "F ir st Difference" model, in which the active independent variable in equation 1.1 is lagged rate of change of High Technology E/niplovment; second for the "Second Difference" model in which the active variable in equation 1.2 is lagged r a te -o f-r a te of change of High Technology Employment; third for the "unemployment" model which allows more rapid demographic adjustment to changes in economic conditions; each of these three models for Migration is run under the two d ifferen t tax base (market value) equations: ( 4 .1 ) , which shows change in the tax base as a function of changes in population and income, and ( 4 .2 ) , which shows changes in tax base as a function of changes in Export Employment and Migration. The variation of assumptions provides, in e f fe c t , a se n sitiv ity analysis of the structure of the growth-dependence model. The resu lts are striking and are consistent with the growth-depen dence hypothesis under almost a ll assumptions tested. Looking fi r s t at p r iv a te economic w ell-being, as indicated by the unemployment rate, we started with an assumed 5.7 percent rate for 1971. (This is actually substantially lower than the rate for this year w ill be, but we did not want to bias the resu lts in favor of growth-dependence by starting o ff with an assumption of high recession-induced unemployment, so we used the 1970 rate of 5.7 percent.) The projected resu lts for 1980 show that only under two concurrent assumptions would the estimated unemployment rate be as low as 7 percent, which is roughly the actual 1971 recession rate. These are the assumption of a 5 percent per annum growth rate, implying continu ation of rapid growth for Santa Clara; and the equation (1 .3 ) assumption of out-migration responsive enough to unemployment that i t reacts back quickly in reducing unemployment. Equation (1 .3 ) seems to provide s t a t is t ic a lly le ss r e lia b le estimates than either (1 .1 ) or ( 1 .2 ) , however, and i f out-migration is le ss respon sive to the unemployment that is postulated in ( 1 .3 ) , even 5 percent growth is projected to lead to 10 percent unemployment by 1980. Where *Growth of Export industry Value Added has taken place at an annual rate of about 10 percent in the two decades since 1950. The 1960-1970 decade has been s lig h tly lower; growth of High Technology Value Added has been s lig h tly higher. Table 1 ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS FOR SANTA CLARA COUNTY IN 1980 Assumed Rate of Growth of Value Added Unemployment Rate (Percent) Migration Equation 1. 1 + 5% per year Market Value Equation 4 .1 4 .2 Declining and levelin g o ff at + 3% per yr. Market Value Equation 4 .1 4 .2 Declining and levelin g o ff at + 2% per y r. Market Value Equation 4 .1 4 .2 Declining at - 1% per yr. Market Value Equation 4 .1 4 .2 1.2 1.3 Market Value of Property, per Capita (1970 = 100) Migration Equation Retail Sales per Capita (1970 = 100) Migration Equation Net Annual In-Migration ( 1 00 0 *3 ) Migration Equation 1. 1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1 .3 1. 1 1.2 103 95 103 95 103 95 119 118 122 9 .5 11.1 1.3 *<1 00 12 13 100 100 93 100 94 114 112 117 94 99 93 99 93 100 94 112 110 116 91 87 92 87 90 84 98 95 104 2 .9 -1 0 .2 8.5 -1 1 .4 7 .3 -1 5 .6 5 .1 -2 8 .5 179 -2 2 the truth w ill l i e , as among (1.1)> fic u lt to say. ( 1 .2 ) , and (1 .3 ) i s , of course, d i f A ll are estimated from data that did include bad economic years, but had no long-run downturns. In the future, i f Santa Clara County goes into a period of long-run growth no higher than 5 percent, and i f the rest of the country is prosperous, out-migration might approach the (1 .3 ) rate. On the other hand, i t is d if fic u lt to estimate the attachment people have to their homes as compared to their geographic responsiveness to economic incentives. (The survey discussed below w ill attempt to obtain more information on these matters from a sample of Santa Clara's population.) In any case, the lag e s t i mates of these models indicates that economic adjustment is not instan taneous; long-run high unemployment rates in the past in other urban areas show this to be true. I f jobs were scarce in Santa Clara County, i t seems lik e ly that population would u ltim a te ly adjust; policy must be concerned with the human hardship and policy problems in the time, period before "u ltim a tely" comes to pass, and our estimates relate to the length of th is time period. Under one set of assumptions, much of the adjustment could take place by 1980, but i f population is le ss mobile than assumed in ( 1 .3 ) , i t could be much longer. And even (1 .3 ) leads to r ela tiv ely optim istic conclusions only when coupled with the equally optim istic assumption of continued r e la tiv e ly rapid growth. I f economic growth i s at a rate of only 2 or 3 percent per year, projected unemployment approaches 10 per cent even with the out-migration of ( 1 .3 ) ; i t approaches 15 percent under the lower m obility assumptions of (1 .1 ) and ( 1 .2 ) . And i f the economy declines at a 1 percent per year rate, no out-migration assumption pro je c ts anything but disastrous unemployment. At f i r s t look, the resu lts for public economic well-being look some what more ambiguous. tax base. The measure of well-being here is the per-capita To the extent that demand for public services depends on size of population, a stable per-capita tax base w ill necessitate no increase in tax rates. It seems lik e ly in the lig h t of history, of course, that in c r e a s e d services w ill be demanded; th is, plus the extra inflationary 180 -2 3 - poten tial associated with public services (with any services, as com pared to goods), w ill probably mean some increase in tax rates. Thus, i f the per-capita tax base shrinks, a strong additional upward pressure on tax rates w ill be added, making the public o f f i c i a l 's role extremely d i f f i c u lt . At least part of the tax base, however, seems to hold up within our projection s. Retail sales per capita, the base for the local share of the r e t a il sales tax, do hold up under most assumption; unfortunately, th is tax provides only a small portion of lo cal revenues. major tax base, Market Value of property dependent upon assumptions. Whether the holds up as w ell, seems heavily I f , as assumed by equation ( 4 .1 ) , property value depends upon population, Market Value per capita stays close to 1970 le v e ls , unless the economy actually declines. This would almost have to be the case, because population changes are reflected both on the causal side of the equation and in the computation that puts the e ffe c ts on a per capita b asis; more people mean more demand for public services, and almost simultaneously more tax base, under this assumption. I f the alternative assumption, of direct dependence of Market Value upon economic a ctiv ity is used, as in equation ( 4 .2 ) , however, Market Value per capita goes down from 1970 le ve ls even with a 5 percent economic growth rate. Which assumption is more plausible w ill have to be d is covered from detailed study of the change of value of particular proper tie s in Santa Clara County. I t can be said at this point, however, that even the optim istic pro jection may be far le ss optim istic than i t might seem. Looking simul taneously at the Market Value projections and the Unemployment projections, i t can be seen that what is happening under the optim istic Market Value assumption is that property values, and therefore property taxes, are holding up, while the private economic well-being that enables people to pay property taxes is dropping sharply. This has been one of the major conceptual and practical criticism s of the property tax for many years. I t is not based on a b ility to pay. The tax base stays up, insofar as i t does stay up, by divorcing i t s e l f from the incomes of the tax payers. From a policy standpoint, this sort of outcome cannot be counted as 181 -2 4 - highly favorable. And, again, if the e:?r,omy declines, rather than slow ing its growth, no combination of assumptions is favorable to the public e conomy any more than the private. These generally pessimistic results of projections using alternative forms of the m o del are dependent upon lagged reactions of two types. One is the lag of p opulation movement in following jobs; the other is the flywheel effect of local employment responding with a lag to population increase, thus helping bring about more population increase even as the autonomous economic base for such increase is on the decline. Were these two sorts of lags excluded from the system — were all adjustments instan taneous as they would be in the stable prosperity model — the results w o u l d be economic stability both for public authorities and for the pop u lation in the county at any one time, although the well-being of the people m o ving in and out to make the adjustments instantaneous would be outside the realm of the model. In any case, it is just such instantaneous adjustment that our model-testing has rejected by its almost uniform choice of the growth-dependence model over the stability model. The tests and estimates indicate that without a change in the eco n o m i c / d emographic structure xtfhich has characterized San Jose and Santa Clara County for twenty years, a high rate of growth is necessary for continued economic w e l l - b e i n g . Whether such growth will continue depends in large m e asure on factors beyond local control. Perhaps high tech nology employment in Santa Clara has peaked out; aerospace has peaked out. Popu l a t i o n growth has slowed down -- although, consistent with the growth-dependence model, it has not stopped. The last line of model estimates, based on an actual decline of high-technology production of the current type, end up with unemployment between 13 and 23 percent, and w i t h the per capita tax base substantially lower than at present. When we asked City Man ager Fletcher why San Jose was not in as bad straits as Seattle, his answer was that that sort of trend was possible, but he still had time and he intended to use that time to avoid the outcome. The results of this analysis provide a quantitative illustration of ho w San Jose might become Seattle; our analytical team is in San Jore under Mr. F l e t c h e r fs sponsorship as one of a number of efforts he has under way to use his time to avoid this sort of outcome. 182 -2 5 - There is a billboard near Sea-Tac Airport that reads: Last Person Leaving S e attle, Please Turn Out the L ig h ts." "W ill the In San Jose, the lig h ts may keep going on; the question is "Who’ s going to pay for the e le c t r ic ity ? " In any case, disclaimers should again be inserted. This i s not a set of predictions, but rather an analysis of the economic and demo graphic structure of Santa Clara; the projections are intended primarily as illu s tr a tio n s of the implications of the structure as we now under stand i t . Nonetheless, the results are indeed strik in g . THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH: "URBAN SPRAWL" AND THE TEXTURE OF LIFE Geographic Spread I f the analysis reported above indicates San Jose and Santa C lara's overall economic dependence on growth, the other side of the coin is the e ffe c t of such growth on the geographic distribution of industry and population in the area. The issue can be summarized a s, "What does the growth that might r e a lis t ic a lly occur mean for the shape and texture of the County, including, but not limited to, what has been called "Urban Sprawl?" Under current p o lic ies and assumptions, w ill i t mean bulldozing more orchards and vineyards, thus f i l l i n g in the green spaces that have added to the amenities of current housing; w ill i t mean high -rise or townhouse development (a trend which seems to be beginning, but may be temporary); w ill i t mean expansion of the peripheries of currently urban ized areas; w ill i t mean substantial movement from the v alley floo r to the mountain ranges on either side? One set of research instruments to be used w ill be models that disaggregate the projected population and industry of Santa Clara County geographically, developed by the County Planning Department and the San Jose IBM f a c i l i t y , and a related set of models previously developed at Rand by Ira Lowry. None of these are perfect — perfect prediction of changing population distribution is beyond the state of the art and i s lik e ly to remain so — but they are 183 -2 6 - usable. They w ill be used to project the population and in du strial d is tribution consequences of various alternative growth and policy assump tions — to show the other side of the consequences of growth as brought out by the economic well-being models described above. We have not yet run these new alternative sets of assumptions through the model, but Figs. 1 and 2 were adapted from two County maps. The over- lay map, based upon the Santa Clara/IBM model, indicates some preliminary estimates of the geographic distribution of new population growth at a rate of increase of about 1 .8 percent annually — slig h tly more than the high growth projections in our model runs above. The dots show the pro- jection of where new population growth w ill occur from 1970-1975. The bottom map shows 1970 land use in the County, with esse n tia lly "green" uses — orchards, agricultural land, and private estates — being shown in green. At f i r s t glance, the overlay seems to show that the new popula tion w ill not cut heavily into the green land. Closer examination, how ever, indicates that th is i n i t i a l conclusion is lik e ly to be based upon the large southern area currently made up of broad agricultural lands and very r e s tr ic tiv e ly zoned small c i t i e s . Many of the dots, particu larly those in the near-south and ea st, which are actually parts of the City of San Jose, appear in currently green areas. In other words, the maps imply that under these assumptions many of the orchards that now make many r e s i dential areas a ttractive may be bulldozed in the next fiv e years; tracts w ill be surrounded by tra c ts. Attitudes Toward Growth Modeling geographic spread, however, hardly su ffices to reveal the problems of narrowly defined Urban Sprawl, le t alone the "te x tu re " of l i f e in Santa Clara County. Such modeling, nonetheless, may be a f i r s t step away from the sloganeering that has dominated much of the discussion of "growth11 in recent years. "Growth" in the p o lit ic a l dialogue of th is period has changed from a good thing, connected with progress, success, and strength, to almost a dirty word with i t s newfound connotations of urban sprawl, po llu tion , and over-crowding. But in examining the e ffe c ts 185 -2 9 - of growth on quality of l i f e , one must steer away from such slogans, and examine how growth tends to improve the quality of l i f e and how i t tends to detract from i t . Growth, economic and demographic combined, tends to increase the number of transactional opportunities — opportunities for personal and impersonal interchange of a l l kinds — available to residents of an area. Most of these opportunities are p o sitiv ely valued and may improve the quality of l i f e in an area: economic and educational opportunities, entertainment and cultural options, variety of consumer goods and ser v ice s, diversity of people from which to form a friendship c ir c le . Other transactional opportunities — criminal transactions and the opportunity to meet more cars during rush hour — are generally negatively valued and detract from the quality of l i f e , but a far greater portion of the personal and so cia l costs of growth are in nontransactional areas. With demographic growth comes a decrease in q uiet, in scenic beauty, in space available for personal liv in g , in privacy (although the small town/ large c ity comparison makes th is arguable), and in access to clean air and water and green grass and trees. I t i s this la tte r — negative — e ffe c t of growth that has been stressed in recent years, but the current wisdom should not lead to our ignoring the transactional aspects of growth. The choices facing people range a l l along the continuum. poles, they can choose New York City or rural Wyoming. At the The choices facing mediiim-sized metropolitan areas lik e Santa Clara County are more lim ited. They cannot maximize at either extreme as individuals can, but must attempt to optimize, balancing increases in transactional opportuni tie s against the costs incurred in lessened tranquility and damaged ecol ogyTo guide city and county o f f i c i a l s in this balancing a ct, i t is important to o ffer them choices for their constituents. I t is particu la rly important for them (and for us) to discover whether the non-trans actional — environment, a esth etics, and privacy — aspects of their area are important only to a small vocal minority, or are more generally 186 -3 0 - stressed by a wide range of c itiz e n s . Our preliminary analysis has examined the preference data that e x is t; ultimately we expect to sup plement existing data. A 1965 survey of the environmental attitudes of Santa Clara County * provides some very preliminary guidelines. Questionnaires residents were l e f t at the homes of respondents to be f i l l e d out and returned. Although the sample of completed questionnaires numbered over 4000, d i f ferences in response-rate led to low income and nonwhite households being underrepresented, a bias which should be kept in mind when considering the findings discussed below. The most interesting general finding is the strong interest ex pressed by respondents in preserving the beauty of their environment and in increasing the quietness, privacy, and spaciousness of their home sur roundings. While more than two-thirds of the sample said that business and job opportunities were very important in their decision to move to the County, and over one-half said that such opportunities were the p r i mary reason for moving, "clim ate and natural settin g " was next in impor tance. Although only 17.5 percent said that this was the primary reason for the move, almost one-half stated that "clim ate and natural se ttin g " was a very important factor in their decision to move. I t is unfortunate for our purposes that climate and natural setting were combined in the question because policy decisions can a ffe c t only the la tt e r . Perhaps people care far more about climate than about nat ural settin g ; i f so, policymakers could give a green ligh t to intensive development with fewer qualms about detracting from the natural beauty of the region. The survey, fortunately, included a number of questions dealing with the natural setting in and of i t s e l f ; in particular, there were questions dealing with the future use of h i lls and mountains, agricultural lands, and San Francisco Bay. * Op. cvt* The answers to th e s e q u e s tio n s lay to r e s t the 187 -3 1 - p o s s i b i l i t y th a t i t may be on ly a m in o rity 3 c o n s is tin g o f young3 upper m id d le-cla ss w h ite s 3 who ca re about p r e s e r v in g open sp a ces and n a tu ra l b ea u ty . Forty-four percent (44%) of the households responding desire that no more f i l l i n g of San Francisco Bay be allowed. Another 47% fe e l that f i l l i n g of San Francisco Bay should be allowed for parks and recreation only. Adding these two groups together, about 90% of the households would not approve of f i l l i n g the Bay for in d u stria l, residen tial or commercial development. On the other hand, about 5% favor intensive development. Thirty-three percent (33%) of the households responding fe e l that no further development should be allowed on what remains of the farm and orchard lands. Another 55% fe e l that the best lands for farms and orchards should be saved, while the rest may be b u ilt on. Adding these two groups together, nearly 90% of the households agreed that the best agricultural lands should be saved for agriculture. On the other hand, about 5% do not fe e l any need for the preservation of farm and orchard lands. Twenty-four percent (24%) of the households responding fe e l that the h i lls and mountains surrounding the Santa Clara Valley should be conserved for parks and recreation only. Sixty-two percent (62%) desire that development in the h i lls be lim ited to housing that does no violence to the natural shape and beauty of the fo o th ills . On the other hand, about 12% show l i t t l e or no in terest in restric tin g development in the fo o t h ills . Viewing these three groups of questions together: the vast majority of the citizens of Santa Clara County fe e l that the extent, beauty and character of existin g open space should be protected from intensive development.* Although the survey did not ask respondents what they would be w ill ing to give up to retain the beauty and character of the natural settin g , i t is possible to check their responses to other questions for consis tency in their expressed desires. was: The most useful question in th is regard "Some people think that we need better recreational and cultural f a c i l i t i e s in the county. Do you think that we need to spend tax money to provide better f a c i l i t i e s for the follow ing?" Nine items were lis t e d . The response categories were "much need," "some need," " l i t t l e need," * Op. QVt.y p. 4. 188 and "no need.1' The two most popular itL.ns on the l i s t , with over 40 per cent of the sample saying "much need," were "large regional parks, open space" and "sm all parks and playgrounds." I f the "some need" responses are added, over three-quarters of the sample voted for more parks, play grounds, and open space. Approximately a quarter of the sample responded "much need" to the following (in rank order): "system of t r a ils for hiking and horseback r id in g ," "theater (for plays, concerts, e t c . ) , " "museums (a rts, sciences, e t c . ) , " " f a c i l i t i e s to boat and f i s h ," and "z o o ." I f "some need" re sponses are added, over half the respondents are saying that these things are needed. The two less popular items were "sports stadium or arena" and "g o lf cou rses." There was also an "oth er" category, but only three percent of the sample took advantage of i t indicating that the nine lis te d items adequately represented desired a ltern a tiv es. The most popular items on this l i s t — parks, small and large — are consistent with the desire to preserve the beauty and character of the natural setting expressed ea rlier in the questionnaire. They are also consistent with how respondents say they would like to spend their time and with their self-reported usage of recreational f a c i l i t i e s . Although most respondents say they would prefer to spend most of their non-working hours at home, outdoor recreation runs a strong second. The usage figures on the relevant outdoor f a c i li t i e s are: Members of the Household Use At least once a month At least 3-4 times a year Almos never Small parks and playgrounds 48.0% 67.0% 25.4% Large community-wide parks 30.0% 63.3% 27.9% Mountains 22.3% 67.3% 25.0% Large natural areas for hiking, campin g, etc . 20.0% 55.2% 36.8% 189 -3 3 - Most people prefer to spend the bulk of their non-working hours at home, spending time with the fam ily, working on their home or garden, reading, watching te le v isio n , e tc . Presumably their home and i t s imme diate surroundings are important to them. in this sphere? Study sta tes: What are their preferences The summary statement in the Environmental Attitudes "Although there is a variety of dwelling types and neigh borhood types that people would lik e to liv e in , i t was found that there ts a general desire for more privacy and the experience of open space for a l l ty p e s." This, in turn, may create another paradox, however: 'The quest for space and privacy for each individual and family has been a major factor leading to sprawl for San Jose as a whole. may be solved by better p o licy, The paradox but i t has not yet been. Respondents were asked what would make apartments and subdivision houses more acceptable. Apartments become more acceptable as they pro vide greater privacy (better soundproofing, private patios and balconies) and more opportunity to experience the outdoors. This does not con flic t with retaining open space, but i f Santa Clara County is lik e other areas (the survey did not ask), most people prefer single family dwellings. And when asked about things that would make subdivisions more acceptable, 86 percent expressed a desire for larger yards and more space between houses. Santa Clara County residents are consistent in their desire for space: they want open lands, they want parks, they want more space around their homes. Unfortunately, there is no necessary connection between psychological consistency and economic consistency. The pattern of land use they desire w i ll, with continuing economic and demographic growth, become inconsistent at some point in the future. I f people want more space around their homes, i t has to come from somewhere. At some point, i t w ill become necessary to start nibbling away at the best agri cultural and recreational lands to provide residen tial space. In the next phase of the study, we plan to estimate the poin t, in terms of population, at which th is w ill occur in San Jose under varying assumptions about the density of housing and, i f po ssible, a single set 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 3 190 -3 4 - of assumptions about the "b e s t" agricultural and recreational lands and their proportions in relation to residen tial land. w ill ask: In other words, we How much growth can San Jose experience while meeting the expressed preferences of i t s residents, i . e . , while preserving the beauty and character of i t s natural settin g and somewhat increasing outdoor recreational opportunities? This w ill be answered in terms of several assumptions about housing density: maintenance of current average density, and various le ve ls of increase and decrease in density. For th is analysis, i t would be desirable to have information on the proportions of the San Jose population desiring differen t levels of den s ity and their tradeoffs between density and other fa cto rs. (Would the group wanting more land around their houses, for instance, be w illin g to have both larger lo ts and landscaped green b elts dividing the lo ts at the expense of access roads? — Cars would be le f t at the entrance of the sub division with e le c tric cars and shopping baskets provided for cartage, as in the new Welfare Island Development in New York.) Some of this informa tion may be available from our intended reanalysis of the data from the Environmental Attitudes Study. This survey, however, was faulty in a num ber of ways, and we expect ultimately to in itia te a survey of our own, using the reanalysis of the 1965 data as an aid to constructing the new survey. The discussion of the la st few pages concerning attitudes toward the non-transactional aspects of growth — i t s e ffe c ts on space, beauty, privacy — may make i t appear that we are talking about a simple twosided growth paradox, with the economic dependence on growth illu str a te d by the model representing the benefits of growth; and i t s deleterious e ffe c ts on non-transactional variables, the c o sts. simple, however. Matters are not that As has been indicated, growth has many non-economic bene f i t s associated with increase in transactional opportunities. Unfortunately, the Environmental Attitudes Study paid l i t t l e attention to desires for transactional opportunities and even le ss attention to pre ferred tradeoffs. It did, however, point the way to the kind of analysis that is needed i f resid en ts' preferences are to be taken adequately into account 191 -3 5 - in planning and policymaking. A cluster analysis was performed to iden t if y groups of people who had sim ilar desires for types of housing, neigh borhood, and community. As the authors point out: . . . i t should be possible to have differen t housing types and neighborhood types in order to sa tis fy the varied desires and needs of the poeple. There is no single aggregated "housing market" or ’’ community" but rather there are a number of specialized markets and sub-communities.* Aggregate measures are often useful for descriptive purposes but they are less useful as policy aids. A reasonable aim for community planning is to maximize options available to resid en ts; planning for the average householder cannot do th is. The results of the cluster analysis undertaken as part of the Environ mental Attitudes Study underscore th is point. One of the eight "household types" id en tified was the "ty p ic a l household," fam ilies with average envir onmental attitudes liv in g in average houses in average neighborhoods. These average householders accounted for only 15 percent of to ta l house holders. The point is not that a minority with specialized needs and preferences is ignored when policy is made for Mr. and Mrs. Average; rather i t is that the majority i s ignored. A. major purpose of the new survey we hope to undertake w ill be the id e n tifica tio n of household types in terms of the clustering not merely of preferences but of preferred tradeoffs ( e . g . , at what c o s t would they want more open space, e t c .? ) The Environmental Attitudes Study, and other studies, suggest that such groupings or clusterings of preferences w ill not be coterminous with socio-economic groupings. Variables such as income le v e l, eth n icity, age, e t c ., are not highly correlated with attitudes about housing, neighborhoods, and environment. Therefore, a cluster analysis identifying potential "sub-communities," i f made relevant to both lo cal government o ffi c i a ls and land developers, may suggest alternate development *0p. o i t . j p. 10. Op. o i t . 3 p. 11. 192 -3 6 - prospects that could reverse the current trend towards increasing r e s i dential segregation on the basis of income and ethnicity in Santa Clara County. As mentioned in a subsequent section of this report, the other major purpose of the proposed survey would be to examine the relation between socioeconomic m obility and geographic mobility for differen t groups within the population. I f time and money permit, we would also lik e to examine b e lie fs and attitudes about public spending on the provision of services and protection of the environment, but these plans are more ten tative. BENEFITS AND COSTS OF GROWTH The fin a l step in the projection portion of the analysis of growth w ill be to combine the resu lts of the two halves of the investigation — that which shows the economic consequences of d ifferen t rates of growth or lack of growth, and that which analyzes the "Urban Sprawl" and "Quality of L ife " consequences of differen t rates and kinds of growth — into a set of statements showing both the favorable and unfavorable e ffe c ts of d if ferent growth rates. Predictably, i t is unlikely that at this level of "no policy change" baseline projection, there w ill be any "good" answers. What is lik e ly to be projected w ill be con flictin g alternatives — d if ferent combinations of more or le ss economic d istre ss, on the one side, with less or more "Urban Sprawl" and deterioration of at least the non transactional aspects of the quality of l i f e , on the other. It w ill be the role of the direct analysis of policy options to attempt to resolve these — insofar as they can be resolved. 193 -3 7 - III. SOCIAL PROBLEMS The social problems that we refer to are properly divided into two categories: with crime. those associated with low income arid those associated To be sure, these problems overlap in their e ffe c ts on the to ta l population. Nevertheless, low income problems (high unemployment, poor health, inadequate housing, lower educational a ttain ment) are the direct experience of poor people, affectin g the non-poor population in quite differen t ways. Crime, on the other hand, is a s u ffic ie n tly varied phenomenon to have both victims and perpetrators spread throughout the population, with differen t income groups having high rates of commission and victim ization according to the type of crime in question. THE POPULATION To organize our data on the population and so cia l problems of Santa Clara County, we began by clustering the County's census * tracts into groups that, as far as p o ssible, are sim ilar within each group and dissim ilar among them. This c la ssific a tio n then made i t possible to examine so cia l problems in the d ifferent sorts of neighborhoods defined by the various clu sters. The use of tract data has one important disadvantage: i t is not completely possible to say whether characteristics that look connected on a tract basis are connected because the tracts contain individuals with these sets of ch racteristics or because the tracts themselves are made up of some individuals with one of the ch aracteristics and some individuals with another. For example, i f a tract has a r e la tiv e ly high incidence of poverty, a substantial number of Mexican-Americans but an Anglo-white m ajority, does th is r e fle c t the presence of MexicanAmericans who are almost a ll poor, Anglos who are poorer on the average than Anglos liv in g in other tra c ts, or some mixture of heavy MexicanAmerican poverty and greater-than-average Anglo poverty? In this case, i t is impossible to know without additional information. Fortunately, - Of the 127 tracts in the County, 125 were included in the analysis. The two excluded were Moffet F ield , a Navy base, and a tract that was en tirely a large h osp ital. 194 -3 8 - we have available from the 1966 Santa Clara special census, upon which we based the cluster an alysis, w ith in -tr a c t data that w ill enable us to answer these questions. This, in fa c t, is a major reason for stressin g the 1966 data in th is analysis. Although some attention is paid to changes from 1960 to 1966 and from 1966 to 1970, subsequent analysis w ill attempt some reclustering for these other years to permit further study of change. The disadvantage of using tract data, however, is more than balanced by two advantages (in addition to the advantage that i t is the most readily available and manipulable for i n i t i a l structuring of a n a ly sis.) F ir s t, tract data w ill enable us to connect the so cia l problems of this section with the patterns of growth that are the central focus of the over a l l study. And, second, a number of the immediate policy questions asked us by lo cal o f f i c i a l s have a geographic orientation for which i t w ill be necessary to look at tra c ts. Section IV below reports on our plans for use of the clustered tract analysis to estimate the costs of new residen tial development in San Jose, for example. Six clusters of tracts were identified by use of a principal compo nents analysis described in some d e ta il in the Appendix. The nine variables used within the analysis to score the tracts were: percent on public assistance; percent unemployed; percent owner-occupied housing; percent persons 25 years old and older with less than eight years formal education; average household siz e ; median income; percent persons 65 years or older; percent persons 19 years or under; percent Mexican-American. Through the principal components analysis, we reduced the dimensions to three. Although such components are seldom subject to precise character iz a tio n , the three dimensions can be described reasonably accurately as: an economic well-being component; low-income component; a large-household, rela tiv ely and an older, homeowner component. 195 -3 9 - The tracts did not f a l l neatly into separate clusters according to these components; because they did not, the boundary lin es between clu sters are somewhat arbitrary. Nonetheless, i t was possible to obtain six re la tiv e ly homogeneous clusters in a two-dimensional space constructed from the economic well-being and the large-household, low-income components. The economic component was divided into four categories with tracts fa llin g in the two middle categories (moderate economic well-being) further divided according to whether they were high or low on the second fa cto r. The resulting six clusters are described s t a t i s t i c a lly in Table (2) by the means and standard deviations of their values on the nine origin al variab les. More h e u r is tic a lly , they are: Cluster 1: Lowest Income Cluster 2: Low Income; small households, either aged or newly formed Cluster 3: Working Class; large households Cluster 4: B e tte r -o ff; small households, either aged or newly formed Cluster 5: Upper Middle C lass, large households Cluster 6: Affluent. An ea rlier clu ster analysis, using a simpler ad hoc scoring on a smaller number of measures,* divided the tracts into three clusters (a number we chose a rb itra rily ) whose problems we described as c r it i c a l, su b c r itic a l, and n on critical. Our more sophisticated analysis did not merely divide each of the older three clusters in h a lf; i t shifted some census t r a c ts , a fact which becomes relevant to the analysis at several poin ts, as described below. Chart 2 maps the six clu sters. The largest area of the map is in Cluster 3, but this is deceptive; the big tracts to the south are sparsely populated. In fa c t, almost three-quarters of the County population is in clusters 5 and 6: m iddle-class and affluent County. Santa Clara is a w e ll-o ff upper Our so cia l problems a n alysis, however, w ill necessarily stress the other end of the scale. The difference between the two cluster analyses is described in the Appendix. Table 2 MEANS3 AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR NINE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES BY CLUSTER AND COUNTY % Public Assistance % Unemployed % Owner Occupied % > 25 Yrs. w / < 8 Yrs. Education Median ^ Income Household Size % 1 65 Yrs. % 1 19 Years % MexicanAmerican CLUSTER 1 Mean SD 23.5 5.7 12.9 3.3 40.3 11.7 23.5 4.2 5,092 888 3.1 .55 10.2 4.0 35.8 7.4 35.8 10.6 7.0 3.9 3.8 1.5 33.0 17.7 9.7 4.6 6,480 1,392 2.4 .22 11.4 6.5 22.5 3.6 5.2 3.1 12.9 4.8 * 6.1 2.2 55.4 13.7 19.3 4.1 6,790 713 3.3 .56 7.1 2.8 39.1 6.7 19.2 8.3 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.1 55.2 20.4 5.4 3.6 9,084 1,331 2.7 .36 9.6 5.4 27.4 5.6 1.8 1.5 5.5 3.0 3.3 1.4 63.9 12.7 9.8 3.6 8,484 701 3.5 .52 3.7 L 8 41.2 6.1 8.0 6.1 2.5 1.4 1.9 .61 79.3 7.0 5.2 2.1 10,631 1,856 3.8 .26 3.5 2.2 44.7 3.3 3.2 2.5 6.4 7.7 3.8 4.0 64.1 21.1 9.8 7.6 8,772 2,651 3.4 .6 5.3 4.8 39.7 8.9 8.8 12.2 CLUSTER 2 Mean SD Cluster 3 Mean SD CLUSTER 4 Mean SD CLUSTER 5 Mean SD CLUSTER 6 Mean SD S.C. COUNTY Mean SD aThese are weighted means. ^Income figures are in 1966 dollars — not deflated. 198 -4 2 - Looking f i r s t at Cluster 1 (Lowest Income), we find i t is composed of 17 tra c ts. The highest proportions of public assistance, unemployment, and low educational attainment occur in this clu ster, together with the lowest median incomes in the County (in 1966, the average median income for the cluster was $5,092 compared with $8772 for the County as a whole). These tracts are found in three areas — A lviso, downtown San Jose, and part of Gilroy in the south central rural part of the county. (See chart 2 .) The largest percentages of Mexican-Americans liv e in these tra c ts, though even in those which have r ela tiv ely low percentages of MexicanAmericans, economic w ell-being is sim ilarly low. In 1966 the cluster appears to contain a mixture of low-income older people, small households and younger, larger fa m ilies. For though we find that the cluster has an average of fewer people under 19 (hereafter referred to as youth) and more people over 65 than the average for the County, both household size and percent of youth are higher on the average than we find in Clusters 2 and 4. (Indeed, the chief characterization of 2 and 4 is their small household s i z e .) The three neighborhoods of this f i r s t cluster resemble portraits in s t i l l - l i f e , l i t t l e affected by events going on around them (although, as noted, the people liv in g there may change). While the County has grown explosively and become wealthier, these neighborhoods stood s t i l l . (See table 3 .) It is true that their population has increased s lig h tly , from 72,000 in 1960 to 77,000 in 1970, but this is an increase of 7 percent while the County increased by 66 percent. Between 1960 and 1966, median income appeared to go up almost $350, but in deflated dollars i t actually decreased by almost. $200; in fla tio n in the world around l e f t them worse o ff than before — not to mention their increase in rela tiv e deprivation, given the increasing income in the rest of the County. The percent on public assistance did not change very much, nor did the degree of crowding, nor the portion of the aged among them. In this curiously s t i l l world, two forms of change did occur. The proportion of persons in the neighborhoods who were Mexican-Americans increased by a noticeable amount, in a period when the proportion of Mexican-Americans in the county as a whole decreased, providing further confirmation of the County Planning Department’ s statement that, "both Table 3 S TATISTICS FOR T R A C T CLUSTERS * Clu s t er 2 C l uster 1 Population __________ -> ________ v.xu8ter 196 0 1966 1970 1 960 1966 1970 1960 1966 72,272 72,647 77,541 6 7 ,360 81,048 85,530 88,621 105,255 1970 115,938 _________________________ C lu ster 5 1960 1966 1970 1960 39,029 46,170 47,719 147,680 ____ ____ 1966 1970 I 960 225,395 267,462 221,022 Cluster 6 7966 T 4 7 0 "* 383,064 466,973 M e d i a n I ncome Mean SD 1 0th P e r c e n t i l e 9 0th P e r c e n t i l e Median 4,618 789 3,146 5,376 4,856 2 ,7085 ,540 5,092 888 1,800 5,838 5,200 2,3505,950 1960 1966 1970 4 ,925 1,897 1 ,518 7,324 5,238 1,4897,719 6 ,480 1,392 5,050 8 ,200 6,500 2,9008,900 1960 1966 1970 5,612 968 4,556 6,571 5,970 1,9026,615 6,790 713 5.900 7,700 6.900 5,2507,700 9,084 6,028 1,331 2,606 934 7,900 8,161 11,000 7,207 8,400 9347,9009,006 11,850 1960 1966 1960 1966 _____ 7,107 737 6,038 7,997 7,363 5,1948,11 2 1960 8,484 701 7,779 9 ,3 00 8,408 7,51710, 500 8,489 1,277 7,117 10,431 8,282 4,97811 ,2 00 1966 1960 10,631 1,856 8,626 13,032 10,100 8 000 16,398 , - 1 9 6 6 _____ M e d i a n I ncome D e f l a t e d Mean SD 10th P e r c e n t i l e 90th Percentile Me d i a n Ra n g e 4,582 799 3,420 5,254 4,680 2,1155,355 1960 5,832 1,253 4,545 7,380 5,850 2,6108,010 1966 1970 23 6 17 30 23 12-35 26 7 13 37 26 13-37 1 96 0 1966 1970 1960 47 12 26 62 50 1 8-62 40 12 26 53 42 13-56 37 12 22 53 37 12-61 46 17 29 76 48 10-79 1960 1966 1970 6,111 641 5,310 6,930 6,210 4,7256,930 8,175 1,198 7,110 9,900 7,560 7,11010,665 7,636 631 7,001 8,370 7,567 6,7659,450 1966 1966 1966 2-18 1970 % Public Assistance Mean SD 10th Percentile 90th Percentile Median R a nge 7 4 3 10 6 3-17 1966 7 4 4 12 6 4-16 1970 Z Owner Occupied Mean SD 1 0t h P e r c e n t i l e 90 t h P e r c e n t i l e Median Range 33 18 11 61 36 5-69 32 21 6 62 26 4-90 7 9,568 1,671 7,763 11,729 9,090 7,20014,758 CO CO Page 2. Population 1960 1966 1970 196 0 1966 1970 1960 1966 72,2 7 2 72,647 7 7,541 67,360 81,048 8 5,530 88,621 105,255 16 7 7 28 14 6-28 6 3 2 10 6 2-13 4 2 2 6 4 1-7 13 5 7 19 12 4-28 1960 1960 1966 1970 115,938 39,029 46,170 47,719 147,680 11 6 5 20 10 4-27 4 2 2 5 4 .8-8 3 1 1 5 3 .9-5 11 5 4 16 12 4-22 1970 1966 2 25,395 1970 267,462 ___________ Cluster 6 _________ 1960_______ 1966_______ 1 9 70 2 21,022 383,064 466,973 Z Households < 1 P er R o o m Mean SD 10th P e r c e n t i l e 90 t h P e r c e n t i l e Median Range 16 8 7 31 13 5-31 1960 M e d i a n Rent 196 6 197 0 I960 107 13 83 122 108 77- 1 2 5 85 10 76 99 84 68- 1 0 8 1966 1970 iQftn 136 20 108 163 136 106-163 77 9 63 90 79 57-91 1Q&A iQ7n iQ*.n 124 18 106 143 122 82-165 97 9 74 108 98 74-108 1970 1960 1 QA& i Q7n 1 960 8 5 3 13 7 2-20 1966 1970 d,e Mean SD 10th Percentile 90th P e r c e n t i l e Median Ran g e 73 10 53 ' 83 75 51-84 1960 1966 197 0 • 1960 1966 1970 1960 1966 152 18 134 174 145 134-193 1966 1970 150 12 136 161 153 119-175 97 12 75 106 101 64-116 1960 1966 1970 M e d i a n Rent, D e f l a t e d Mean SD 1 0th P e r c e n t i l e 90th Percentile Median Range 80 10 62 91 81 58-94 1960 1966 102 15 81 122 102 79-122 1970 196 0 18, 1 3 5 1,5 0 6 1 6,411 21,047 1 7,7 0 6 1 5 , 8 9 5- 16,5 0 8 2,107 13,800 1 9, 2 0 0 17,0 0 0 1 3 ,300- 1966 1970 1960 1966 1970 . 112 9 102 121 115 89-131 114 13 101 131 109 101-145 93 14 80 107 91 61-124 15.60 1966 1970 1960 1966 1970 Median House Value Mean SD 10th P e r c e n t i l e 90th P e r c e n t i l e Median Ran g e 12,569 1,1 6 9 11,100 14,300 12,500 10,9 0 0 - 24,773 4,121 19,187 29,466 24,352 18,95933,005 14,018 1,388 12,700 15,100 14,000 10,00016,8( 21,780 2,986 18,614 24,912 20,725 18,286- 20,915 4,197 16,200 25,000 22,500 16,200- 32,947 8,596 23,334 43,507 29,103 23,334- 16,785 2,639 14,100 19,900 1 6,800 1 0,8002 2,300 25,227 3,417 21,081 30,428 23,682 20,87633,467 20,012 3,681 16,400 25,000 18,500 13,80031,100 30,594 5,171 25,037 39,125 28,303 22,07548,294 Page 3. Clu s t e r 2 Cluster 1 .JL2.60 Population 72,272 Cluster 3 1966 1970 1960 1966 1970 1960 72, 6 4 7 77,541 67, 3 6 0 81, 0 4 8 85,530 88,621 1966 Cluster 4 1970 105,255 1 15,938 Cluster 5 1960 1966 1970 39,029 46,170 47,719 1960 147,680 1966 225,395 Cluster 6 1970 1960 267,462 221,022 1966 1970 383,064 466,973 M e d i a n H o u s e Value, Deflated Mean SD 1 0th P e r c e n t i l e 90 t h P e r c e n t i l e Median Ra n g e 1 3 ,710 1,139 12,407 15,912 13,385 12,01616,074 1 960 ’966 1970 18,728 3,115 14,506 22,276 18,410 14,33324,952 1960 1966 1970 16,466 2,258 14,072 18,833 15,668 13,82426,648 1960 1966 1970 19,072 2,583 15,937 23,003 17,904 15,78225,301 24,908 6,499 17,640 32,892 22,002 17,64032,892 1960 1966 1970 1960 1966 1970 23,129 3,909 18,928 29,578 21,397 16,68936,511 1960 1966 1970 % * 65 Y e a r s Me a n SD 10th Percentile 90t h P e r c e n t i l e Median Range 11 5 4 17 13 4*18 196 0 10 4 5 15 11 3-19 1966 12 5 7 18 11 4-26 1970 13 6 5 23 13 4-26 1960 11 6 4 20 12 3-27 1966 11 7 4 23 10 2-27 1970 8 3 4 12 8 .4-15 1960 7 3 3 10 7 .9-14 7 3 3 11 7 1-16 1966 1970 10 6 2 18 10 2-21 1960 10 5 1 15 12 1-17 1966 11 5 4 16 13 4-16 1970 4 2 1 7 4 .9-8 1960 4 2 2 6 3 1-8 1966 4 2 2 7 4 .02-10 1970 4 3 2 8 3 .9-16 1960 3 2 2 6 3 .7-12 1966 4 2 2 7 3 1-11 1970 Z - 19 Y e a r s Mean SD 10th P e r c e n t i l e 90th Percentile Median Range 36 7 26 45 36 22-50 1960 1966 22 4 17 27 23 15-28 1970 1960 1966 39 7 33 48 36 28-54 1970 1960 1966 41 6 34 51 40 29-52 27 6 18 33 30 18-33 1970 1960 1966 1970 1960 1966 45 3 41 47 45 36-52 1970 1960 1966 1970 Household Size Mean SD 10t h P e r c e n t i l e 90th Percentile Median Range 3 .5 2 4 3 2-4 2 .2 2 3 2 2-3 3 3 4 3 3-5 3 .3 2 3 3 2-3 4 .5 3 4 3 3-5 4 3 4 4 3-4 to o Page 4. Cluster 6 Cluster 5 1966 Population 72 , 2 7 2 72,647 77,541 67,360 81,048 85,530 8 8 ,621 105,255 115,938 39,0 2 9 46,170 47,719 147,680 225,395 1 9 6 6 _____ 267 , 4 6 2 221,022 383,064 4 6 6,973 X Mexican-Amerlcan Mean SD 10th P e rcentile 90th Percentile Median Ra n g e .4-26 196 0 .3-10 1966 X 1 25 Yrs. w i t h £ 8 Y rs. Educ. to o to SD 10th Percentile 9 0 th P e r c e n t i l e Median Range X Unemployed SD 10th P e r c entile 90th P e r c entile Median Range S e e n e x t p a g e f or f o o t n o te s . 13 3 9 16 12 6-21 4 2 2 6 4 2-7 6 2 3 10 5 2-11 2 1 .2 3 2 .2-3 3 1 2 6 3 1-7 2 .6 1 3 2 .3-3 203 -4 7 - Footnotes to Table 3 aA ll values are weighted by population; "household value" is weighted by owner-occupied housing. A ll values are rounded. ^The Tract with $934 median income includes Stanford University and the income reported is largely that of students. 0 Using the San Francisco Bay area Consumer Price Index, 1960. ^These figures in the upper categories w ill be underestimated because the upper category in census data i s , "x dollars or more." eMedian contract rent is not available for 34 of the 77 higher income tracts presumably because of the high percentage of owneroccupied units in these tra cts. 204 -4 8 - economic and racial/eth n ic segregation increased from 1960 to 19 66 ." And while crowding remained v irtu a lly the same, other housing variables changed in the direction of the County as a whole, though the changes were of modest character compared with more afflu en t clu sters. Median rent increased (in deflated dollars) by about 8 percent, the value of owner occupied housing increased (in deflated dollars) by about 7 percent, but the most obvious change was a 21 percent decline in owner-occupied housing — a decline about mid-way in the percent declines of the remaining c lu sters. For the most part, the e ffe c ts of growth — good and bad — have tended to flow past the people livin g in these stagnant backwaters. Housing cost and quality in the areas has been more sensitive to the changes elsewhere than have the so cia l or other economic characteristics of the area. People rejected by the mainstream have flowed into them. We observe a quiet sag in the economic well-being of these areas. Because San Jose is a young c ity , we may have a portrait of poor areas ju st before a more rapid deterioration. Clusters 2 (low-income, small households) and 3 (working c la ss, large households) are both low on measures of economic w ell-b eing, but a closer look suggests that the economic problems of the two stem from quite different sources. Cluster 2 is composed of 16 tracts mostly grouped west and northwest of downtown San Jose, including much of the city of Santa Clara. The most d istin ctive characteristics of Cluster 2 are the small percentages of Mexican-Americans in these tracts (an average of 5 .2 percent compared with the county average of 8 .8 percent), and the high proportion of single individuals or small households liVing in rented quarters. Compared with the other clu sters, 2 has the highest percentages of people over 65, the smallest households, and the fewest children. Those economic variables on which they score most poorly compared with Working Class Cluster 3 are income and home-ownership (not public assistance, unemployment, or educational attainment), Santa Clara County Planning Department, The Housing S itu a tio n > 1969, p. 62. 205 -4 9 - suggesting that their economic problems come from being near one o f two extremes of the family/work cycle: some of these people are retired and livin g on fixed incomes while others may be younger couples ju st starting their fam ilies. Cluster 3, on the other hand, is most distinguished by i t s younger, larger, working-class fa m ilies. The 20 tracts of this cluster li e rather lik e a pendant around the downtown area of Cluster 1, taking in parts of Sunnyvale to the west, Alum Rock to the ea st, and the rural neighbor hoods of the south. The worst economic problems in this cluster show up in their r e la tiv ely high averages of public assistance, unemployment, and low educational attainment. This cluster contains the second highest percentage of Mexican-Americans in the County — an average twice that of the County as a whole, though only h a lf that of Cluster 1. Both Clusters 2 and 3 have changed (or fa iled to change) over time in sim ilar ways on most of the economic variables that we can presently measure over time. Constrasted to Lowest Income Cluster 1, the changes in 2 and 3 were mostly modest improvements, or at least show no marked de terio ration . In 2 and 3, for example, the percent of people over 65 remained about constant from 1960 to 1970. Value of owner-occupied houses increased as did rents; crowding decreased s lig h tly . From 1960 to 1966, the Mexican-American percentage declined s lig h tly ; from 1966 to 1970, the public assistance percentage remained about the same. There are some important changes on which the two clusters do d iffe r , however. For example, median incomes in Working Class Cluster 3 start from a higher 1960 base than those of Low Income, Small Household Cluster 2, but the dollar increase in median incomes from 1960 to 1966 in Cluster 3 was l i t t l e more than half that in Cluster 2 ($500 contrasted to $900 in 1960 d o lla r s). At the same time, the percent of home ownership in Cluster 3 declined much le ss than in Cluster 2. These are complex relationships that w ill require the w ithin-tract data to straighten out en tire ly . In our ea rlier analysis, which grouped many of the Working Class and Small Household Tracts in the Subcritical Category, the heterogeneity of the Category made analysis next to impossible. In any case, both clu sters appear to be slig h tly more fn touch with the mainstream of economic a ctiv ity in the County as a whole than is 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 -- 1 4 206 -5 0 Cluster 1. A ctually, it is the 30 percent increase in population in both clusters that suggests, more than anything e lse , their greater v it a l i t y . Unlike Cluster 1, they have changed. Further change may be in either direction, and pressures are lik e ly to a ffe c t Low Income, Small-Household Cluster 2 and Working Class Cluster 3 d iffe re n tly . I f our characterizations of the clusters are correct, for example, a slowdown of economic growth can have drastic e ffe c ts on Cluster 3 — throwing i t s workers out of jo b s, and reducing public support for the children of i t s large fa m ilies. In Cluster 2, the e ffe c t of such a slowdown is lik e ly to be less on the aged, but i t may hurt the newly formed households greatly. The overall effe c t on the census tracts of Cluster 2 w ill depend on the mix of those two groups, the analysis of which w ill require the w ithin-tract data. Clusters 4, 5, and 6 can be described as almost mirroring the demographic ch aracteristics of Clusters 2, 3, and 1 being their greater economic w ell-being. ■k — their chief distin ctions Thus, while they need not be dis cussed in connection with so cia l problems associated with low income, they are important to describe as areas of d ifferin g population ch aracteristics. The f i r s t notable thing about Cluster 4 (re la tiv e ly w e ll-o ff small house holds) is that i t contains the most geographically d iffu se tracts of a l l the clu sters. County. They appear to be areas close to various colleges in the Home ownership is especially varied among this c lu ste r ’ s tracts (the standard deviation for the cluster is almost as large as that for the County as a whole) probably because of the high proportion of renters sur rounding college areas. One suspects, as with Cluster 2, that the popula tion f a l l s mainly near the two extremes of the family work cycle. While 4 has fewer people over 65, and slig h tly larger households and more youth on the average than Cluster 2, the two clusters are nevertheless more sim ilar to each other on these measures than to the other clusters or to the County as a whole. Clusters 5 (Upper Middle C lass, Large Households) and 6 (Affluent) include the remaining tracts in the County, distributed geographically in the not unfamiliar pattern that leaves the b e st-o ff looking down from the h i lls at the n e x t-to -b e st. 'h Although Cluster 4 (B etter-off Small This is necessarily the case because our method of clustering by values on principal components polarizes the tracts along these axes. 207 -5 1 - Households) is actually closer to Affluent Cluster 6 on most economic measures than is Cluster 5, 4 d iffe rs greatly from 6 in demography. Cluster 4 represents the ends of the family cycle — aging households and newly-formed ones. Cluster 5, however, contains the more "ty p ic a l" fam ilies ju st down the economic scale from 6; 5, indeed, is clo sest to the Santa Clara average, and Santa Clara County is prototypically an area of upper/middle class fa m ilies. Cluster 6 , then, has a l i t t l e more of everything than Cluster 5: there are s lig h tly larger households, more youth, more homeowning, higher median incomes, and higher educational le v e ls , on the average. Cluster 5 is s lig h tly higher in the percent of people over 65 and Mexican-Americans — not desirable characteristics in Santa Clara County. As noted, Clusters 5 and 6 contain almost three-quarters of the County’ s population. Here lie s the increase in economic well-being that shows up so clearly in County aggregates — the p ositive effe c ts of economic growth. concentration. Here liv e the well-educated Anglo-whites in increasing (The percent of Mexican-Americans declined somewhat in these two clusters from 1960 to 1966.) In using this structure to aid in the analysis of the County’ s housing, health, and education problems in the next section s, we leave Clusters 5 and 6 , returning to them when we look at crime, which has i t s own unexpected associations. HOUSING The central city areas of many of the large eastern c itie s have deteriorated to a le v e l of b ligh t and decay that w ill require heroic measures to reclaim. In smaller metropolitan areas, particularly in the West, pockets of poverty (usually populated by racial or ethnic m inorities) are often interspersed within areas of wealth and high-quality liv in g . Santa Clara County is a case, in point. Despite the rela tiv e affluence o f Santa Clara County as a whole, a sign ifican t portion of the population is poor and inadequately housed. We have seen, for example, that crowding remained unchanged from 1960 to 1970 in the lowest income cluster — during a period when rapid population 208 -5 2 - growth in the County at large created high demands for construction in other areas of the County. According to the Joint Housing Element of the Santa Clara County Planning Department, more than 15 percent of the * Fourteen households had incomes less than $4,000 per year in 1966. percent of the Anglo-white population were in this group as compared with 24 percent of the Mexican-American population, and 25 percent of the blacks. This obvious and expected unequal distribution of poverty has an interesting impact on housing patterns. are well-mixed eth n ica lly. Low income areas in San Jose A ll groups are seen to be w ell in ter spersed in single family as well as multiple family dwellings. This is not to say that high concentrations of Mexican-Americans do not e x is t, but that the absolute numbers of low income Anglo-whites, when compared with other m in orities, require that r e lie f of low income housing problems be viewed as an inter-group problem as well as a minority problem. Building construction in Santa Clara County during the past decade has concentrated on high-value single family dwellings. Yet over the decade, percent of owner-occupied housing declined throughout the County by as much as 30 percent in sm all-family Cluster 2 to 13 percent in affluent Cluster 6. In part, this reflec ts the fact that during the la s t several years, a sign ifica n t sh ift to the construction of multiple family dwellings has been taking place. a reflection of preferences. It is not clear that this is Indeed, national mobility patterns (in cluding between and within county moves) indicate that most moves are *** Nevertheless, over time, as made from rental to ownership tenancy. in-migration to the County declines, the demand for ownership among the resident, now-renting population can be predicted to increase. 1 -4 . Even now, Santa Clara County Planning Department, Joint Housing Element, page Much of the data in this section is taken from this excellent study. This may seem an apparent contradiction to the overall increasing segregation of the County as a whole. It is not, however, because low income whites liv e both in mixed and segregated neighborhoods whereas those with higher incomes are primarily in segregated neighborhoods. *** However, inter-region al migrants tend also to be young, so i t is quite probable that Santa Clara county had an influx of younger couples who were w illin g to rent during the fi r s t stage of their family l i f e cycle. 209 -5 3 - vacancy rates are fa ir ly high in the more expensive rental units ju st being constructed at the same time that 15,000 low cost housing units are estimated to be required to meet the needs of low income fa m ilies. Cost of land has increased during this development period from 70c per square foot in 1960 to $1.33 in 1970 and, together with the increases in costs of labor and m aterial, this has influenced builders to supply more multiple family dwellings purely for economic reasons. In October 1970 i t was estimated that i n i t i a l occupancy costs for a $20,000 single family dwelling were $2,300 with FHA financing, and $5,500 with conventional financing. I n i t i a l occupancy costs for two-bedroom and three-bedroom apartment rentals were $360 and $405, respectively. Monthly costs for a $25,000 house were calculated as $247 FHA and $260 conventional, while average monthly rental costs were $178 and $202 for two-bedroom and three-bedroom apartments, respectively. In 1969, the supply price of housing was such that a family would have to earn approximately $12,000 per year to have a reasonable expectation of purchasing a $24,000 home. Assuming 25 percent of monthly income as an acceptable le ve l for rent, i t was necessary that a household have $5,760 annual income to pay the $120 per month in rent required to have a reasonable expectation of finding an unfurnished apartment in the lo cal supply of rental units. Given the large number of households in Santa Clara County (approximately 16,000) earning le ss than $4,000 per year, i t is clear that low income fam ilies do not have an adequate supply of rentals or owner-housing. This is seen as the crucial housing problem (as far as number of units go) in Santa Clara County, yet few suggested p o licies attack this problem. In our discussion of policy analysis, below, we go into some of the Federal programs available. Their current level of u tiliz a tio n , however, is quantitatively inadequate for Santa Clara County. We also make one new policy suggestion, based on the possible slowdown in growth of the County. HEALTH We selected infant mortality rates as the best single indicator of health conditions in Santa Clara County as a whole, and in low income 210 -5 4 - areas in particular. In doing th is , wc have used two rates: infant mortality rates and neonatal mortality rates. overall These la tte r rates refer to deaths occuring under one month, and are useful to consider in the analysis of low income groups. They are more e x p lic itly tied to the age, general health, and care of the mother than arc the overall rates. Increased risks of neonatal mortality are associated with shorter gesta tion periods, low birth weight, previous maternal pregnancy lo s s , and illig itim a c y . It is worth noting that in 19 70, the infant mortality rate for the county (14.7 per 1,000 liv e births) was lower than the rate for California (1 9.0 ) as w ell for the nation (2 4 .8 ). Neonatal death rates were sim ilarly low — 10.6 for the County, compared with 17.9 for the United States. Average infant mortality rates — whether overall or neonatal — often mask sign ifica n t differences between minority and majority groups. For example, in the United States in 1964, the rates were 21.6 (per 1,000 liv e births) for whites and 41.4 for non-whites. In the case of neonatal infant m ortality, the U.S. rates were 16.2 for whites and 26.5 for non-whites. This sort of distin ction apparently does not apply to majority-minority differences in Santa Clara County, however. Neither mortality rate in 1970 was much higher in the lowest income cluster than in the most affluent clu ster. It may be that the difference from the national data is because the minority most heavily represented in Santa C lara's lower-income group is Mexican-American, rather -than black. While we have data on the occurence of tuberculosis, gonorrhea, and shigula for the county, the low incidence of both tuberculosis and shigula (a yearly average of 138 and 148 cases, respectively, in the three-year period from 1968 to 1970) and the fact that gonorrhea is more strongly associated with age distribution in the population than with income distribution caused us to eliminate these measures from consideration at the present time. ieit We have not been able to acquire rates from exactly comparable years. The California rate is for 1968; the U.S. rate is for 1964; the Santa Clara County rate is for 19 70. The difference in the rates may thus be smaller than we in dicate, though the ranking is very lik e ly to remain the same. S. Shapiro, E. Schlesinger, R. N esbitt, J r ., Infant y Prenatal Maternal3 and Childhood M ortality in the United States (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University P ress), 1968, p. 274. 211 Table 4 INFANT AND NEONATAL DEATH RATES PER 1,0 00, 1970, BY CLUSTER Cluster 1 2 3 4 5 6 County TOTAL INFANT DEATH RATE Weighted mean 20.4 15.1 21.3 19.8 12.4 14.2 Unweighted mean 18.7 14.1 16.7 18.8 12.5 13.5 14.7 12.8 SD 15.9 12.9 11.1 21.5 8.4 11.0 Weighted median 15.4 18.9 21.4 15.2 12.8 14.3 Unweighted median 13.9 15.2 20.0 15.2 13.1 13.3 13.4 10.1 12.6 16.1 8.8 10.6 NEONATAL DEATH RATE Weighted mean Unweighted mean 12.0 8 .8 10.1 15.5 9.4 10.7 10.6 SD 10.0 10.4 9 .6 15.7 8.9 10.6 10.6 Weighted median 15.4 .oooa 15.3 15.2 8 .5 8 .7 Unweighted median 11.4 .oooa 8.3 15.2 8.5 8.7 aHalf of the tracts in this cluster had no neonatal deaths for the year. 212 -5 6 - Nonetheless, i t is apparent from Table B that the average infant mortality rates in the clusters follow no compelling pattern, with Lowest-Income Cluster 1, Working-Class Cluster 3, and B e tte r -o ff Small Family Cluster 4 generally having the highest of both rates. the clusters are equally curious. The median rates for None of these figures is very high in national terms, but the absence of a clear association of higher rates with the worst o ff tracts is intriguing. It is d i f f i c u lt , given our present data, to know exactly how to explain the findings. The size of the standard deviations suggests, however, that variations within clusters on this measure may be so large as to wash out any between-cluster pattern. The w ith in -tract analysis w ill examine this p o s s ib ility . EDUCATION Santa Clara County public schools, in the f a l l of 1969, had over 275,000 students enrolled of which 58,000 or 21 percent were members of minority groups. Most of the minority students were, of course, Mexican- Americans; they accounted for 16.6 percent of of the to ta l student body. This compares with a Mexican-American proportion in the to ta l population o f 9 .6 percent in 1966, the most recent year for which data on ethnicity are available. Currently, the only data we have which can be used to analyze changes in ethnic composition over time are for the San Jose Unified School Dis tr ic t. This D istrict had almost 36,000 students enrolled in the f a l l of 1969 and had added another 800 by the f a l l of 19 70. The minority student population was higher than in the County as a whole by 50 percent, and the Mexican-American population was higher by 60 percent. Although overrepresented compared with the county as a whole, the proportion of Mexican-American students in the San Jose D istrict has been decreasing slowly but steadily over the past several years, from 29.7 percent in 1966 to 26.6 percent in 1970. (The proportion of Negro students has remained steady and that of other non-whites has dropped s lig h t ly .) This appears to be a continuation of the trend for 1960-66 mentioned above: a drop in the Mexican-American percentage of County population, presumably due to the large influx o f . Anglo-whites rather than to any out-migration of Mexican-Americans. 213 -5 7 - As discussed e a r lie r , r e s i d e n t i a l segregation by ethnicity increased in Santa Clara County between 1960 and 1966. Following this lead, we computed s c h o o l segregation in dices, for the elementary schools, junior high schools, and high schools in the San Jose D istr ic t. The index * used summarizes the degree of segregation in a particular system. For instance, an index of 67 percent says that 67 percent of the minority group or of the majority group would have to change schools to produce a distribution in which the minority group was proportionally represented in a ll schools. It is not to be interpreted as 67 percent of a ll students having to change schools; i t is 67 percent of one or the other or additive portions o f each (for example, 50 percent of the minority and 17 percent of the majority students). The index was computed using Mexican-Americans as the minority and Anglo-whites as the m ajority; the small number of other minority students was not included in the calculations. Between 1966 and 1970, segregation increased s lig h tly in the elementary schools (from 64.4 percent to 66.9 percent) and the junior high schools (from 63.8 percent to 67.9 percent). ** from 47.6 percent to 42.2 percent. It decreased in the high schools These figures are of in terest in and of themselves, but they w ill be of most value when ethnicity data from the 1970 census become availab le, so that comparisons with changes in residen tial segregation over the same time period can be made. We w ill a ls o , in the next phase of the study, examine by ethni city both dropout rates and courses of study in which students are enrolled (academic, commercial, vocational education). One of our main concerns is the e ffe c t of economic growth on the upward mobility of MexicanAmericans in the San Jose area. The prime agent of inter-generational mobility must be the school system. We w ill want to know how e ffe c tiv e ly i t is functioning in this capacity, the actual rate of change in i t s This index was developed by 0 . D. Duncan and B. Duncan and is reported in "Residential D istribution and Occupational S t r a t ific a t io n ," American Journal o f S o c io lo g y 60 (1955), pp. 493-503. I t w ill be interesting to see what effe c ts the closing of certain schools, due to the Field (earthquake protection) Act, w ill have on the segregation patterns of the remaining schools. 214 -5 8 - effectiven ess over the past several years, and i t s potential effectiveness under varying assumptions about changes in p o lic ie s , programs, and the financing of public education. This work w ill be done in conjunction with the Rand Educational Program, which already includes a long-term association with the San Jose Unified School D istr ic t. CRIME As we turn to an examination of the impact of growth on crime in San Jose, the most surprising observation is that crime was never mentioned to us as one of the major problems of San Jose when business men and public o ffi c i a ls discussed their concerns about growth in the area. Past research would have led one to expect something quite d if feren t, given the consistent findings of high crime rates in urbanized areas with rapid population change — at f i r s t glance, the very conditions present in San Jose. One could even assume that the absence of crime from the discussions of growth problems was simply an oversight, given the presence in San Jose of a year-old Criminal Justice P ilot Program in which one obvious aim is to construct models of law enforcement to reduce crime. We found, however, that San Jose did not search out the program; the program designers chose San Jose because i t was an urban area where the best hope for crime reduction lay. Both the city and county governments offered e ffe c tiv e and cooperative p o lit ic a l units through which change could be expected to proceed at a higher than usual le v e l of e ffic ie n c y , and the police department of San Jose (lik e those of California generally) was already above the national average in pay and educational le v e ls. At the same time, i t would be a mistake to omit analysis of what has happened to crime rates in San Jose. I f the city can be shown to have a very different crime pattern from that expected in expanding urban areas, i t would be exceedingly useful to find out why. I f San Jose has crime patterns sim ilar to those of other urban areas, i t would be interesting to discover why the difference between r ea lity and perception lie s in the direction of under stating a real problem. most c i t i e s , both public o ffi c i a ls and the general citizenry have tended to exaggerate, not understate, images of local crime.' In 215 -5 9 - Our f i r s t analysis of the available crime data has begun to answer these questions. Crime rates have n o t remained low in San Jose. The police department’ s Annual Report in 1970 reports a 94 percent increase over 1965 of "Part I " crimes, which include murder, negligent homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assau lt, burglary, th eft (over and * However, the c r it ic a l observation to make under $50), and auto th e ft. about this increase is not the overall amount, but the frequencies of particular crimes in th is category. Burglary, auto th e ft, and th efts of $50 and over (th efts under $50 were not counted in these particular frequencies) are the most frequent Part I crimes in San Jose and occur ** Further, in comparing lo cal crime rates in that order of frequency. in 1970 with crime rates in C alifornia as a whole in 1969 (for murder, fo rcib le rape, robbery, aggravated a ssau lt, burglary, theft $50 and over, auto t h e f t ) , we find San Jose d ifferin g from the state by lower rates in every category except auto th e ft, where the rate is 113.2 over that of "kick the sta te . The lower rates are esp ecially sign ifican t since the state crime rates are for a year ea rlier than the city ones, and each year typ ica lly has a substantial increase over the la st one in a l l rates. F in ally, calculations from the Baseline Offense Report for the fi r s t four months of 1971 indicate that out of a to ta l of 7,300 offenses re ported in this period, only 2 percent involved use of or threat to use guns or knives. The f i r s t thing that becomes clear, then, is the reason why crime does not appear to be foremost in the minds of the citizen s of San San J o se P o lio e Department Annual Report^ 1970> p. 34. The usual qu alification s about crime data apply abundantly to this m aterial. The same table in which the offense increase is reported shows a 70 percent increase in police personnel from 1965, suggesting that law enforcement may have altered more than criminal offenses in this time period. When the "Baseline Offense Report" currently under preparation by the Criminal Justice P ilo t Program becomes availab le, we w ill have a much more re lia b le source of crime data for the county and c ity . For example, un til that report is completed we can say nothing about crime as a problem of minority groups since the largest minority group — Mexican-Americans is reported in the "white" category in a ll the available data. 'k'k I b i d . , p. 31. ***, . , Ib id . 216 -6 0 - Jose. The types of crimes present in peoples' minds when they speak of "crime in the s tr e e ts1' are those accompanied by physical threat (or follow-through) to person or property. Thus, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault with a weapon create more public agitation than burglary or car th e ft. Indeed, one of the in teresting and rather dysfunctional side e ffe c ts of public calm about non-threatening crime is the amount of property crime i t may encourage in rapidly growing urban areas. It is the impression of the researchers working with the Baseline Offense Report that a sign ifica n t proportion of the thefts in San Jose f a i l to involve "breaking i n . " This suggests that people, feelin g sa fe , leave cars and homes open — and vulnerable to th eft. A second point that seems evident is that the crime rates in San Jose re fle c t a rela tiv ely young (not esp ecially poor) urban population. Car th e ft, for example, is often characterized as a form of middle class (or "favored group") delinquency. At least one must be advantaged enough to have learned something about driving a car before stealing one. Quite apart from any other crime-inducing features of urban environments, the sheer a cc e ssib ility of property, and the relative anonymity of a large and growing population, increase the probability of property crimes. For example, burglaries in San Jose increased by almost 30% in the decade of the s ix t ie s . Of particular in terest is the sh ift in burglary ta r g e ts during th is time. In 1960, not quite one-third of the burglaries occurred in residences; by 1970, almost two-thirds of * them occurred in residences. I t appears that the burgeoning housing construction of the 1960’ s not only accomodated a fa st growing population, but also encouraged change in this particular crime pattern by providing ever increasing opportunities. F in ally, age is an important factor to consider in interpreting crime patterns. The age group 15 to 29 is responsible for the highest proportion of the Index crimes specified in the Uniform Crime Reports. I b id . 1960-1969. > p. 36 and San Jose Police Department, Major O ffen se Data3 217 -6 1 - Though the age breaks in Table 5 mask this s lig h tly , i t is obvious that a youthful population has a high propensity to crime. The impression of many people in San Jose is that adolescents and young adults form an exceptionally large part of their population. In fa c t, the d i s t r i bution of 15 to 29 year olds is quite close to the national distribution. (See Table 5 .) We must conclude that crime can be expected to have increased in San Jose no more — but certainly no less — than i t has for the nation as a whole, due to the expansion of this age group between 1960 and 1970. The study of crime in urban areas also involves the study of law enforcement, for this is one o f the major services over which c itie s have control. I t is often in connection with law enforcement that under lying community c o n flicts c r y s ta lliz e . Because law enforcement includes, among other things, the representation of one group's in terests against another group's in te re sts, i t is perhaps the most v isib le symbol (righ tly or wrongly) of the posture and a c c e ssib ility of lo cal governments toward their various constituencies. Thus, the c re d ib ility of lo cal governments frequently rests heavily on c itiz e n s ' b e lie fs about the acquisition of ju s tic e in their communities. Recently in San Jose, an unarmed black man (a long-term professional employee of IBM) was shot and k ille d by police in connection with a t r a ff i c v io la tio n . The controversy that has followed is a perfect example o f what we are talking about, and the incident w ill be an important one for us to study — not with an eye to placing blame, but to analyze one of the standard problems of urban government today — the maintenance of cre d ib ility where con flictin g group in te re sts, h o stile group stereotypes, and in stitu tio n a l constraints are unpleasant but real parts of the so cia l environment. FURTHER RESEARCH ON SOCIAL PROBLEMS The analysis that we have done this far of San Jose and Santa Clara County indicates the direction of our next analytical steps. For example, we want to find out whether there are "leading indicators’* that would pre dict the direction of change in a tract over time. That i s , when a certain percentage of households f a l l under a given income, might that precede a marked acceleration in the incidence of crowding; is there some sequential pattern of change? 218 -6 2 - Table 5 PERCENT OF ARRESTS ACCOUNTED FOR BY DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS, 1965 Persons 11-17 Criminal Homicide Persons 18-24 Persons 25 and over 8.4 26.4 65.1 Forcible Rape 19.8 44. 6 35.6 Robbery 28.0 39.5 31.4 Aggravated Assault 14.2 26.5 58.7 Burglary 47.7 29.0 19.7 Larceny (includes under $50) 49.2 21.9 24.3 Auto Theft 61.4 26.4 11.9 Source: This table is taken from The C hallenge o f Crime in a F ree S o c ie t y (Washington, D .C .: U.S. Government Printing O ffice) 1967, p. 56. B y Table 6 PERCENT DISTRIBUTIONS FOR SELECTED AGES IN SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND THE UNITED STATES, 1950, 1960, 1970 1950 1960 1970a S.C. U.S. 19.5 — — 7.4 9 .2 9.3 6.7 6 .0 8 .8 8 .0 7.0 6.1 — — S.C. U.S. S.C. U.S. Total 23.9 22.9 20.7 15-19 6.8 7.1 7.0 20-24 8 .5 7.7 25-29 8.6 8 .1 ^ e do not have the 25-29 age breaks from the 1970 Census. 219 -6 3 - When data on ethnic distribution and median income become available from the 1970 Census, we w ill group tracts in 1960 and 19 70 by a Principal Components analysis using the same variables we have used for the 1966 c la s s ific a tio n . This should indicate which tracts have changed locations during the decade along the economic component; major demographic changes in tracts should appear through changed locations of tracts along the household component. Additionally, with data provided by the County, we w ill be able to connect changes in tract characteristics with the age of the tra c t. This portion of the analysis can then be related to sh ifts in tax revenues and service expenditures — and should provide a model by which city and county planners can project future demands. discussed further under P o l i c y , below. This is In a present time-frame, the analysis should also highlight areas in which services lag behind popula tion needs. Without the 1970 Census data on minority population and household incomes, we have not yet been able to analyze in depth a central issue of this study: the relationship between general growth in the County and economic mobility of the minority population. Part of this problem can be addressed by analyzing the 1966 Special Census tapes which we have recently acquired from the County. We w ill be running within-Census- tract cross-tabulations that w ill enable us to discover relationships between the age, sex, educational attainment, labor force participation, and ethnic a ffi lia t io n of household heads — and the income, s iz e , and tenure of their households (on a tract by tract b a s i s ). We w ill also be able to make cross-sectio n al comparisons between differen t generations of Mexican-Americans and Anglp-whites — on such measures as labor force participation and educational attainment, for instance. Then, with the 1970 Census data on income and ethnic d istrib u tion , we w ill be able to show economic changes in a reas heavily populated by Mexican-Americans. Once again, the fact that the data come by census tract rather than individual household means that we w ill not be able to associate these changes d irectly with the people in the areas, and unlike the case of the 220 -6 4 - 1966 census, we do not expect to be able to do w ithin-tract cross-tabu la tio n s. Nonetheless, when individual mobility data by tract become available from the 1970 Census, we w ill be able to draw some inferences on whether changes in tracts represent primarily changes experienced by the original residents, or whether they r e fle c t migration in and out .o f the neighborhood. Answering th is question is important to deter mining whether so cia l policy to cure the i l l s discussed above should be applied on a geographical b asis. Another issue important to explore, in any case, is the relation ship between intergenerational mobility and geographic m obility. The information we need is not so much what is happening to the adult resident minority population, but whether younger in-migrants are moving up economically and so c ia lly when they come to the area, and whether younger adults leaving the area improve their incomes by so doing. Communities need not be responsible for providing a l l the avenues for upward mobility for their residents i f they make su ffic ie n t investments in their earning potential (for example, educational attainment) to enable them to move to better jobs*.elsewhere. At the same time, a given com munity should be able to attract migrants with s k ills suited to the lo c a l job market. Santa Clara County has been able to provide upward njobility for i t s Anglo-white in-migrants. We do not yet know whether i t has been able to upgrade and export the sons and daughters of i t s lower i ncome groups, either Mexican-American or Anglo-white. Nor do we know anything about Mexican-American (or Mexican) in-migrants. These questions cannot be answered by o f f i c i a l data alone. can best be answered by a survey. They This survey was discussed above in connection with determining attitudes concerning "qu ality of l i f e . " The survey instrument w ill allow us to compare both the intergenerational and geographic mobility of Mexican-Americans and Anglo-whites at a ll socioeconomic le v e ls. Data w ill be so arranged that we can relate the findings to tract c lu sters; city o ffic ia ls must know not only what phenomena are taking place among the minority and majority populations, but also where they are taking place. I t is possible, for instance, that some school d istr ic ts invest more than other school d is tr ic ts in the education of the minority students they serve (even when incomes are 221 -6 5 - held constant). To know only that some minority students achieve higher educational levels than other minority students w ill not be nearly so useful for policy as knowing w here the differences are occurring. This methodology is perhaps even more important for the discussion of our findings from the second major portion of the survey, which w ill concern i t s e l f with population preferences regarding environmental l i f e s t y le . For example, i f some groups of residents prefer open space surrounding smaller residences to larger residences with smaller amounts of open space, planners need — once again — to know where those people are presently located as well as what i t is they prefer. In i t s lower income areas, Santa Clara County seems to be poised on a threshold from which i t could either descend into the whole range of national urban problems, or from which i t could move forward by drawing i t s less favored population groups into the economic mainstream. By defining the so cia l and economic changes of minority and majority residents over time, by b etter identifying the circumstances surrounding those changes, by relatin g the problems of low income areas to the complex patterns of economic growth (including trade o ffs between tax revenues and service expenditures), we hope to provide both the data and the conceptual framework that w ill make i t possible to make the next move ment an upward one. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 5 222 - IV. 66 - POLICY IMPLICATIONS LEVELS AND TYPES OF POLICY ASSISTANCE Most of the above has been concerned with the problem s of San Jose and Santa Clara County; p o l i c i e s — attempts to avoid, solve, or meliorate the problems — have been le f t largely im p lic it. In accord with our general method of identifyin g, structuring, and analyzing problems, and projecting them into the future as baselines against which to measure the d iffe re n tia l impact of changed p o lic ie s , we have begun with problem analysis as a prelude to systematic investigation of policy options. This report covers the f i r s t four months of a projected one-year study; we are ju st now turning to e x p lic it analysis of policy. There has begun to emerge from the f i r s t part of the work a structure for examining p o licy, an i n i t i a l set of policy hypotheses. to policy is a r e la tiv ely untrammeled one. Our approach It has been understood from the beginning, by our lo cal sponsors, by the National Science Foundation which has provided the planning grant under which the study has thus far been funded, and by ourselves, that we were to be res p o n s iv e to local o f f i c i a l s without being r e s p o n s ib le to them. This has meant that, although we have been working very closely with o ffi c i a ls of both the City of San Jose and Santa Clara County, there has been no feelin g on either side that we should keep our analysis close to their immediate operational needs. They have recognized the importance of our examination of policy at a ll ju risd ictio n a l le v e ls , from national to lo c a l. We, in turn, have stressed that detailed lo cal understanding is the key to our attempts to a ffe c t national p o licy; and we have recognized throughout that the price of our ticket of admission to local areas must be real a ssistan ce.* We have thus begun to examine policy at the three ju risd ictio n a l le v e ls — national, sta te , and lo c a l. been working in two direction s: At the national le v e l, we have examining the implications for future See a lso , the companion pifece to this paper, Rand Urban P o lic y Program: S tra teg y f o r S e le c t io n o f C i t i e s and F i r s t Year Plan> Rand Corporation Working Note WN-7658, October 1971. 223 -6 7 - national problems of some of the things we have been finding out in San Jose; and analyzing the very strong constraints and pressures put on lo cal decision-making by current national p o licies and programs, partic ularly p o licies not ordinarily thought of as "urban." Sim ilarly, we have begun to investigate the controls over local policy imposed by the State of C alifornia. At the lo cal le v e l, where our immediate assistance is most important, we have begun to provide o f f i c i a l s of San Jose and of Santa Clara County with fiv e types of policy assistance: 1. Arguments to use at various governmental levels and with various constituencies. A major policy output of our early finding on the strength of the pressures imposed on local policy by National and State Policy is the provision to lo cal policymakers of arguments for action at these higher le ve ls to change some of the pressures. Sim ilarly, analysis lik e that presented above, concerning the area’ s economic dependence upon growth, provides lo cal o ffi c i a ls with arguments to use with those constituencies who may lean in the direction of trying to stop growth completely; on the other sid e , analysis of the negative e ffe c ts of growth on sprawl and quality of l i f e w ill provide arguments to use with con stitu en cies of "b o o s te r s ." Local o ffi c i a ls are frequently caught in the middle of such constituencies; our analysis may help them temper the extreme arguments on both sides. 2. Analysis of public views. Policymakers want the views of their constituents as guides to policy choices. Attitudinal surveys are frequently taken in Santa Clara County, as elsewhere; in addition to the Environmental Attitudes Study referred to above, regular surveys are taken on questions of public in te re st. Such surveys are u sefu l, but they suffer because they are disconnected from policy issues in the form these issues must be handled. The Environmental Attitudes Survey, for example, showed that preservation of the environment is desired by most of the electorate, not ju st by the upper middle c la ss. But the real policy question is how the public weighs the balance between environment and other values — .how, for example, differen t segments of the public would opt on the tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of growth discussed above. Surveys such as the one we intend to mount, 224 - 68- connected closely with ongoing analysis of policy issu es, should answer such questions. 3. Assistance to other ongoing analytical programs. The analysis reported here is only one of a number of p a rallel e ffo r ts being carried out in Santa Clara County. We have been a ssistin g County planners in their use of the County/IBM model referred to above; more recently we have been aiding San Jose City planners to construct a p a rallel program with IBM. In addition, San Jose has recently been awarded a planning grant by the Economic Development Administration, for a two-year program to determine future directions for economic growth such growth. and how to achieve This d iffe rs from, but f i t s very neatly with, our analysis, which is concerned primarily with the e f f e c t s of growth ( or lack of growth). We expect to work closely with the City on the design of this EDA program. 4. Development of analytical tools for policy assistance. The models we build and use in this study — for example, the one with which we have tested the growth-dependence and stable prosperity hypotheses on Santa Clara’ s economy — are conceptual models, useful in their current form primarily for the insights they bring to the structure and magnitude of problems. With l i t t l e additional e ffo r t, however, they can be developed into tools with which lo cal planners can examine the e ffe c ts of sp e cific policy options on an ongoing b asis. The growth-dependence model, for example, can be developed to show the implications of differen t sp e c ific kinds of economic change for the local economy and thus help with policy decisions on differen t kinds of growth* Development of such an operational growth model may be one result of our work with the City/IBM e ffo r t. Indeed, the current County/IBM model of diffusion of population in the area provides an example of a model designed to bear on sp e c ific operational decisions. The conceptual basis for this model is s t i l l rather meager, however; our e ffo r ts may help to improve i t . A third example is the conceptual model discussed below for estimating the long-run cost of new residential development; this w ill be designed with a view to turning i t into an operational tool for the c ity . 225 -6 9 - 5. Analysis of sp e c ific policy options. The most important policy assistance, of course, is in the design and analysis of policy options. This is discussed in d e ta il below under Hypotheses for State and Local P o lic y » POLICY HYPOTHESES We discuss below a sample of the policy hypotheses we intend to examine. Perhaps the most important hypothesis is the f i r s t : of policy space for lo cal decision-makers. the lack This sets the context for analysis of policy at the three ju risd ictio n a l levels — national, sta te , and lo c a l. Under the heading of national p o licy, we discuss some long- range implications of San Jose’ s growth dilemma, the impact of Federal tax p o lic y , and the e ffe c ts of Federal housing p o lic ie s. State and lo cal p o lic ie s are treated together; a crucial point is that lo c a lit ie s are creatures of the s ta te , and lo cal p o lic ies are what the state says they can be. Not yet taken up e x p lic itly (with one p a rtia l exception — housing) are the p o lic ies at various ju risd ic tio n a l levels designed to attack the so cia l problems discussed above. Our analysis of social problems is only now reaching a point where we can consider policy a lte r n atives; some of the more important of these, lik e the Family Assistance Plan, w ill involve the Federal le v e l, but many w ill be lo c a l, depending on matters lik e the lo cal willingness to desegregate, and the lo cal capability to change r e stric tiv e zoning. The Lack of Policy Space for Local Decision-Makers San Jose/Santa Clara has often been treated by urban analysts as a prime example of lo cal policy — on matters like zoning and annexation — gone wild leading to intolerable urban and suburban sprawl. The notion that sprawl and associated problems in San Jose/Santa Clara have been caused primarily by p o lit ic a l and bureaucratic factors was a major theme emphasized most recently in the Nader report on Power and Land in California. * * The policy thesis beginning to emerge from our study, op. e v t. 226 -7 0 however, is that while lo cal po licies of this nature can be important in adapting to the kind of change that has taken place in San Jose and Santa Clara County, such changes have been induced in the fi r s t instance by powerful forces not under local control. Thus, the policy space available for local discretion is much narrower than is commonly under stood. (And to be f a i r , the Nader report has some of this fla v o r, pointing out that change of state law is a necessary condition precedent to lo cal action. Nonetheless, the report does lay blame heavily on lo c a l a u th oritie s.) The f i r s t reason for our b e lie f in this policy finding of tight constraints on local authority is that the growth of Santa Clara County over the la st two decades has not been caused by such local attractions to growth as sewers and municipal services (policy matters that have formed the core of so much analysis of the area). Rather, it has been massive economic development, primarily in aerospace and related electronic f i e ld s , that has generated the expansion of population, the occupation of open space, and the bulldozing of the orchards that characterized Santa Clara in 1950. Local policy has l i t t l e to do with th is growth; the relevant p o licies were federal. In recent years, Federal expenditures in Santa Clara County, primarily m ilitary contracts, have varied from le ss than $200 m illion to $300 m illio n , figures whose size is from 10 to 20 percent of economic a ctiv ity in the County, and whose year-to-year variation by more than 50 percent is bound to be economically d e sta b ilizin g .* Even within the realm of adaptation to such external economic fo rces, however, the a b ility of local authorities to control their adaptation may be substantially less than has been recognized. One point that is frequently made — particularly by mayors and county supervisors — is the d iffic u lt y of raising money in urban ju risd ic tio n s. In fa c t, Santa Clara and San Jose have been exceptional in that this has not been a major problem (because of their rapid growth); nonetheless, their options have been highly constrained. For one thing — and this is pointed out in the Nader report — zoning, annexation, and — particularly Federal Information Exchange System Reports 227 -71- important — lo c a l property tax policy are structured by the state with only sp ecific discretion on individual decisions and tax rates (within a range) l e f t to local o f f i c i a l s . Given that such devices were used badly in Santa Clara County for up to two decades, i t would have been d if fic u lt to use them very w ell. Even more important, again, is federal p o licy. For example, one of the causes assigned for the lack of lo cal power by some of the bureau cratic analyses of Santa Clara County has been the "Balkanization" of local ju r isd ic tio n s, which has allowed land developers to play one ju risd ictio n o ff against the others. ex ists and is not t r i v i a l. This Balkanization certainly But as one city planner pointed out to us, what happens in a rezoning hearing on a sp e c ific parcel is that one developer comes into the City Council backed up by twenty other developers and the p o lit ic a l pressure becomes extremely d i f fi c u lt to r e s is t. The next time, of course, one of the other twenty comes in with the same backing, and this same process is repeated at every relevant ju risd ictio n a l le ve l throughout the county. In the case of zoning, then, apparent Balkanization becomes actual unification through economically induced p o lit ic a l pressure. Rationalized ju risd ictio n s might make l i t t l e difference, and in practical ways the local authorities are more lim ited in their power than i t appears. The Federal contribution to this pressure is major, even though i t does not appear on the surface. It stems from the fact that these economically induced p o lit ic a l pressures are based in large measure upon the incentives b u ilt up by federal tax policy. Some of the d eta ils of these tax law provisions and their e ffe c ts are provided below. This analysis is not intended to be a critique of the entire federal tax system. There may be very good reasons for provisions of the sort that encourage the kind of speculation that has taken place in Santa Clara County. The point i s , however, that these pressures are induced in large measure by federal tax law and other p o lic ie s , and they do constrain even further the a b ility of lo cal governments to control something lik e urban sprawl. 228 -7 2 - In general then, the hypotheses discussed below on policy at each ju risd ic tio n a l level must be analyzed in terms of th6 rela tiv e leverage of policy at each le v e l. And our fi r s t hypothesis is that federal leverage — exerted in part inadvertently — is so great that local policy has much le ss play than is ordinarily realized. National P olicies The la st section indicated the importance of policy at the national le v e l as i t a ffe c ts the sp ecific concerns of San Jose. This section provides three examples of national p o lic ies whose implications we intend to pursue. The examples are quite d ifferen t from one another. The f i r s t brings out some implications f o r long-run national policy and for the "national philosophy" of San Jose’ s growth dilemma — an illu s tr a tio n of the increasing national debate over "production for what?" The second example provides sp e c ific backup for one of the central points made above concerning the pressures on lo cal policy making that stem from inadvertent national urban policy — in this case, the pressures created by Federal Income Tax p olicy. And the third goes into a portion of what is conventionally thought of as urban policy — the e ffe c ts (or lack of e ffe c ts) of national housing policy on San Joee and Santa Clara County. 1. The Long Run: Production for what? The growth dilemma of San Jose and Santa Clara County is a microcosm of the increasing national dilemma over economy versus ecology. I t is a magnified microcosm because the rapidity of growth in the Santa Clara Valley has in two decades brought change the equivalent of that which has taken place over ten or more decades in older urban areas. San Jose must grow rapidly to prosper economically; although better lo cal p o lic ies than have been pursued in the past can lead to better absorption of growth, i t remains generally true that continued rapid growth w ill mean continued degradation of the environment and quality of l i f e . That this is a. dilemma is beginning to be recognized by policy o ffi c i a ls in San Jose; that is why we are there. On a national 229 -7 3 - le v e l, however, both sides of the dilemma are recognized as policy problems, but i t is seldom recognized that together they do in fact present a dilemma. Economic growth is taken as an unqualified b en efit. Consider the following two statements: F ir s t, we share the b e lie f of the American people in the principle of growth. (President's Materials Policy Commission, R esou rces f o r Freedom , Summary, p. 4, Washington, U.S. Government Printing O ffic e , June 1952.) The time has come for American industry, which has produced more jobs at higher real wages than any other industrial system in h isto ry, to embark on a bold program of new investment in production for peace. (From the text of President Nixon’ s radio television address, August 16, 1971, Los Angeles Times.) These two statements — made nearly twenty years apart — typify what nearly every American (or human, for that matter) accepts almost without question. Economic growth is desirable as an end in i t s e l f . Yet the d e sira b ility of economic growth as an end has become a major controversial issue of public policy. It is argued that this desire for growth is based less on a real "need" for additional goods than i t is on a "need" for high production and growth because as in Santa Clara County, they create jo b s. As the quotation from the President’ s address im plies, we suffer i f industry f a i ls to provide enough jo b s. Yet, even during periods of v ir tu a lly f u l l employment, the economy has never (except for a b rief period during World War II ) created enough jobs to enable every family to liv e in decent comfort. Even in 1967, when production for the war in Vietnam was near i t s peak, there were over 26 m illion people livin g in poverty. number was, of course, much higher. In earlier years th is We have relied on rapid growth — usually resulting from wartime expenditures — to bring people over the * poverty lin e and to achieve some redistribution of income. You: See, for example, Robert A. Levine, Tine P oor Ye Need Not Have With L essons from th e War on P o v e r ty y (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1970), p. 95. 230 -7 4 - It is only in quite recent years that a few economists taking up the concerns of the environmentalists (who, under the pseudonym of "conser v a tio n is ts " have been around for quite a w h ile ), have begun to contend that growth cannot go on forever. This changing view is well-characterized by Kenneth Boulding in his discussion of the difference between the "cowboy economy" we have been liv in g in , and the "spaceman economy" that Boulding fe e ls we must move to in order to avoid depletion of resources and degradation of our environment. In the cowboy economy, economic success is determined by the rate at which the factors of production are consumed in production, e . g . , by f u l l employment of labor. In the spaceman economy, on the other hand, throughput of the factors of production is not the desired end — rather use of productive factors is something to be minim ized rather than maximized. objective is the maintenance In the spaceman economy the of a stock of wealth, and anything that can be done to reduce the throughput of the factors in maintaining that stock is regarded as a gain .** In the "cowboy" economy, technology can easily be cast as a v il la i n . One of the key relationships in our growth-dependence model of Santa Clara County’ s economy was that which showed the need to produce ever more to maintain even a constant number of jobs in High Technology industries. How much simpler l i f e would be without annual increases in productivity to make f u l l employment more d if fic u lt to achieve. The nineteenth century Luddites discovered th is , and tried to break the machines. The real d if fic u lt y , of course, lie s not with technology, but with goals and in stitu tio n s. Increasing productivity is needed because increasing production is needed — needed for the individual goal of being m aterially better o ff year after year; needed for the s o c ia l/ p o lit ic a l goal of improving the lo t of those at the lower end of the See Bouldings' "The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth" in Environmental Q u a lity in a Growing Economy, Henry Jarrett (e d .), The Johns Hopkins Press, 1966. 231 -7 5 - income distribution without substantially hurting end. those at the upper And f u l l employment is needed because employment is the only "d ig n ifie d ” way for individuals to gain income. It takes a set of Utopian suppositions to move to the "spaceman" economy in which, i f economics and ecology cannot be reconciled, at least their c o n flic t can be minimized. Suppose that: — individuals were to value le ss highly annual material improvement, so that increases in productivity could be trans lated into more leisu re instead of more production; — redistribution of income from the b e tte r -o ff to the w orse-off became more fe a s ib le , so that the poor could be helped without special increments of new production; — with liv in g standards supported by a system of so cia l insurance and income guarantees, f u l l employment became no longer a superordinate goal for a healthy economy. Were these to come to pass (and their Utopianism can be measured by the fa ct that there is no way to discuss the path from here to there except by using the B ib lica l phrase, "come to pass") then the overemploy ment of resources, environment, and space that goes hand-in-hand with f u l l employment of labor might be d ra stic a lly reduced. might then resume a heroic ro le . Technology Substitution of innovated durability for planned obsolescence in automobiles, for example, could reduce depletion of resources without the worry of throwing auto-workers out of jo b s. And technology could be used to produce more output for a given input of depletable resources — either by reducing a ll inputs per unit of production, or by sh iftin g to labor-intensive production, as compared to resource-intensive methods. (This d iffe rs from the comparison between labor-intensive and cap ital-in ten sive production. For this purpose, capital should be considered the embodiment of depletable factors of production lik e raw m aterial, space, a ir , water, and beauty, and of non-depletable factors lik e labor, time, and technology.) A ll th is , of course, is a construct. Whether or not we are near a stage of overwhelming need to carry out this reconciliation of 232 -7 6 - economy, in s titu tio n s, environment, and technology, we are nowhere near a capability to do so. In Santa Clara County, however, the coming shadow of the national problem can be clearly seen. Given current assump tio n s, Santa Clara needs growth more rapid than the national rate; Santa Clara is also rapidly depleting at least the resources of space and beauty. Because neither in stitu tio n s nor technology in San Jose can adapt by themselves, i t seems possible that the resolution of the dilemma w ill l i e in part (and involuntarily) in less than f u l l employ ment, in le ss than maximum individual material improvement,* and in le ss attention than should be paid to the so cia l problems at the bottom of the income scale (insofar as these problems are treated with local resources). Such proposals as the Family Assistance Plan would reduce the need for lo cal resources devoted to welfare payments — an important argument in favor of such nationalization of certain p o lic ie s .) Santa Clara County does have one safety valve not available to the nation-, however — migration. Our models showed that under some assumptions, parts of San Jose's population would quickly respond to a slowdown of economic growth by migrating out; under a ll assumptions this would be the response to an actual economic downturn. there is more time — because in spite of the alarms N ationally, of the extreme environmentalists, no resource, not even a ir , is in as short supply nationally as is open space in San Jose — but there is no safety valve. Zero Population Growth (with national headquarters in Santa Clara County, in ciden tally) would not s u ffic e . Santa Clara's safety valve under our assumptions of economic downturn was on the order of 2 -3 percent population reduction per annum through out-migration, and i t is d i f fi c u lt to foresee a natural decline in U.S. population at a rate anywhere near th is. The national solution w ill have to be one that moves toward the Utopian assumptions lis te d above. Time — perhaps considerable time — is available for such a move, but that is the direction. 2. Current Pressures: The Federal Income Tax. As our early researches began to develop the hypothesis discussed above concerning 233 -7 7 - the pressures and constraints imposed on lo cal decision-making by national p o lic ie s , i t became clear that one area of national policy needing further analysis was the role of Federal tax policy in creating such pressures. The e ffe c ts of these pressures are lik e ly to d iffe r from area to area — in Santa Clara County they encourage land speculation, in Eastern c i t i e s , they have been instrumental in causing housing deterioration.* A major focus of our policy e ffo r t w ill be to d eta il and quantify the sp e c ific e ffe c ts of Federal tax policy on land speculation and related phenomena in Santa Clara County. As a beginning, we have taken from the litera tu re the tax provisions that seem relevant to speculation, and have carried out i n i t i a l crude quantitative analysis of the order of magnitude of the tax pressures on land speculation in the County. This turns out to be quite large. The existing economic literatu re on such incentives for speculation is surprisingly thin. Much more has been written concerning tax incentives to development and perpetuation of slums than on the corresponding incentives for the kind of jumbled urban development that characterizes San Jose and Santa Clara County. The dearth of literatu re is apparently due in part to a lag of analysis behind fads; the tax/slum analysis stems from a period when congested c it ie s were at the center of national atten tion , a period before the in terest in ecology made the urbanization of the countryside a popular public issue. The two analytical works used here are both concerned more with slums than with sprawl, but each has some material that bears on the sprawl question. Aaron, D ecen t Homes: They are Henry A Review o f F ed era l Housing P o lic y j* * and The National Commission on Urban Problems, The F ederal Income Tax in R ela tio n t o Housing (R esearch R ep ort #5)^*** which was prepared by Richard S lito r , _ On this la tte r point, see, for example, National Commission on Urban Problems Research Report No. 5, The F ed era l Income Tax in R e la tio n to Housing> (Washington: U.S. Government Printing O ffic e , 1968), prepared by Richard E. S lito r . Brookings In stitu tio n , mimeographed, October 1970. *** op. o v t. 234 -7 8 - Looking f i r s t at the relevant portions of the federal income tax, the literatu re stresses the economic effe c ts of the tax break given to home owners by deduction of mortgage interest and related payments. This is strongly related to equity and to the so cia l questions of home ownership; i t is somewhat less related to land'and building speculation. Certainly the tax incentives, together with a ll the other pressures for home ownership, set up an ownership market which helps encourage speculation in residen tial subdivisions. This is part of the atmosphere surrounding such speculation and sprawl, but sprawl might take another form in any case. More direct economic incentives for speculation and sprawl are set by a number of other tax provisions. Some of these relate both to land-holding speculation and speculation in new building; some relate only to speculation in new building. In any case, they come together to form a very strong economic incentive for such speculation. The major ones include: a. The capital gains treatment and buildings. for increases in value of land Although any small or large holder with appreciating property gets an advantage from this treatment, the major economic effe c ts stem from the fact that the large corporate or individual speculator gets his tax li a b i li t y on the gain reduced from the 50% (or, possibly in the case of the individual, more) i t would be taxed as straight income, to a maximum of 25%. The capital gains advantage applies to both land speculation and new b uilding. b. Postponement of taxes by the real estate investor. According to S lito r : There is a wide range of opportunities for post poning even capital gains tax as the investor’ s equity increases: o By exchanging the property for a larger piece of property with no current tax (a process which can be repeated through a series of successive exchanges). 235 -7 9 - o By refinancing the property so as to withdraw cash without tax. o By reinvesting gain on the receipt of insurance proceeds in the case of casualty loss or on the receipt of condemnation proceeds in the case of involuntary conversion of the property for pub l i c use. o By holding properties throughout the in vesto r's lifetim e so that the unrealized appreciation may be capitalized through the tax -free step-up of basis to fa ir market value at the time of the owner's death. In e f fe c t , this revaluation can restore a l l the depreciation which the owner may have deducted during his life t im e .* This la s t p o s s ib ilit y , postponement u n til death, applies, of course, only to individuals and not to corporations. In general, however, these postponement p o s s ib ilit ie s can be worked with both land speculation and new building. c. The high income taxpayer, including the corporation, can deduct the current costs of maintaining the property, including local property taxes, at very l i t t l e cost to himself because of his high bracket. This applies both to land speculation and new building, although more strongly to new building. d. The real estate speculator can make major gains by prepaying interest on his investment. building. e. This applies both to land and This tax break has been reduced by the 1969 law. The builder, in particular, can obtain major tax savings by depreciating his structures down to zero tax value at an accelerated rate ( i f he holds and rents his buildings) and then se llin g them at their true value at much more than zero. This provision, which was modified somewhat by the 1969 law, is most important not in regard to the San Jose sprawl problem, but in i t s e ffe c ts on slum property turned over from owner to owner i b i d . j pp. 16-17. 236 - 8 0 - with each owner establishing a new tax basis at his purchase p rice. It is relevant to San Jose and Santa Clara in two ways, however. F ir s t, so -ca lled raw land in Santa Clara frequently is planted to orchards or vineyards. These valuable assets are depreciated by the speculator while he holds the land. And second, although residen tial development is sold new, with the builder not getting much depreciation tax gain on the houses, another important part of speculation and sprawl involves business development. In San Jose this means immense shopping centers, among other things, and the depreciation provisions provide important incentives here. As a result of a l l these provisions, S lito r suggests that: . . . the federal income tax structure . . . has on balance up to the present been a factor encouraging low-density rather than high-density residential development (although a substantial potential ex ists for i t s exerting a favorable influence on high-density development through cooperative type apartment con struction) . * In San Jose at le a s t , substantial cooperative type apartment construction has not taken place, and the Federal income tax has had a clear and strong e ffe c t in encouraging speculation and low density sprawl. We have carried out a very rough calculation of the magnitude of the capital gains treatment alone in Santa Clara County, and the results provide a striking illu s tr a tio n of the importance of tax incentives. In the nineteen-year period from 1949 to 1968, the market value of a ll property in Santa Clara County increased from about $1.1 b illio n to about $9.3 b i lli o n , an $8 b i lli o n , or e ig h t-fo ld , increase.** Land values alone went from $320 m illion to $2.6 b illio n — an increase of $2.3 b illio n or, again, roughly e ig h t-fo ld . Much of the to ta l property increase, of course, stemmed from the real costs of building new structures *** (which we do not count as a speculative increase) # and both * i b i d . 3 p. 20. The figures in th is calculation are in current d o lla rs, since in fla tio n is an important part of cap ital gains. ***Because structures are b u ilt on speculation and appreciate in value lik e land, some portion of structure values at any given time w ill have been speculative in the same way as land values. The data, however, do not enable us to partition structure values between i n i t i a l values and speculative increases. 237 - 8 1 - to ta l value and land-alone increases include value gains on small holdings. But an informed ( i f rough) estimate is that the average increase in the value of a holding from the time a land speculator (or a wise orchard operator) begins holding for increase to the time when newly constructed structures are sold o ff to owners for use, is three- to fo u r -fo ld . Such a speculative increase seems plausible — perhaps conservative* — rela tiv e to the overall eig h t-fo ld increase in nineteen years, so we applied a gain factor of three to the i n i t i a l 1949 bases of $1.1 b illio n for a l l property and $320 m illion for land, and came up with "speculative gains" over the period of $312 b illio n for a l l property and roughly one b illio n for land. Since we cut the to ta l increase by more than half to try to identify "tr u e " speculation, i t then seemed reasonable to apply high-bracket capital gains savings to this portion of the increase. Doing so at a 25 percent savings rate (50 percent corporate or high-bracket individual income tax rate minus 25 percent capital gains tax maximum) leads to capital gains savings over the years of $800 m illion for a ll property and $250 m illion for land. And this in turn produces annual averages over the nineteen years of $42 m illion for a ll property and $13 m illion for land. I t is not clear which is the more appropriate figure ($42 m illion or $13 m illion) to consider as the capital-gains incentive for speculation. Such speculation is undoubtedly based on increase in the value of structures as well as increase in the value of land, but even given our attempt to cut out non-speculative gains, some of the structure-value increases may s t i l l be real rather than speculative. What is clear, Indeed, i t may be very conservative. A. Alan Schmid, in C on vertin g Land from Urban to Rural Uses> (Washington: Resources for the Future, In c ., 1968), presents estimates of the appreciation of sp e cific parcels of land, which go as high as fo r ty -fo ld in Santa Clara City (Table A -3 ) . The basis is differen t from the county-wide average used here, and estimates lik e th is are d if fic u lt to make consistent with an overall property value increase of only e ig h t-fo ld . But Schmid's figures also suggest that appreciation of Santa Clara property changing from farm to residen tial uses is about twice the national average, which might make a general threeto fo u r-fo ld increase conservative even on the average. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 6 238 -8 2 - however, is the substantial size of even the lower — $13 m illion — fig u re , as an annual incentive. To calibrate i t , the to ta l HUD moneys flowing into Santa Clara County in 1969, a recent year for which data are availab le, were $5.4 m illio n s.* (The $5.4 m illion excludes FHA and other mortgage insurance which, fi r s t of a ll is a guarantee not a cash inflow, and, * second of a l l , provides another major Federal incentive for development, in i t s own r ig h t.) The $13-42 m illion and the $5.4 m illion figures are, of course, not d irectly comparable, but the HUD expenditure s t a t is t ic does indicate that the capital-gains incentives are lik e ly to have more e ffe c t — perhaps much more i f the $42 m illion figure is nearer right than the lower one — than a ll the ex p lic it Federal urban e ffo r ts in the county. And this takes no account of tax postponement, cost deduction, interest prepayment, or accelerated depreciation. The important question — in addition to that of the equity of special treatment — is the economic e ffe c t of this treatment on urban sprawl. The capital gains treatment, of course, a ffe c ts a ll investment, but the special gain from pure speculative holding applies mainly to real esta te . Together with the other provisions, this constitutes the well known "r e a l estate tax s h e lte r ." The importance of this issue of tax incentives and urban growth — i t may be the single most important issue of federal policy with regard to San Jose — means that we are going to be putting substantial e ffo r t into analysis of sp ecific tax effe c ts over the next several months: what are the implications for the area of $13-42 m illion plus a ll the other Federal (and state and lo c a l) tax incentives? with The i n i t i a l rough calculation set forth above, together the substantial lack of relevant national or local analysis, gives this a very high p rio rity . 3. E xplicit Urban P olicy: Housing. I f the Federal income tax is only inadvertently an urban p o lic y , housing policy is quite e x p lic itly urban. We have noted that housing for the low income population of Santa Clara County is not sa tisfa c to ry . * We have also noted that the Federal Information Exchange Survice Report, op. a^ t. 239 -8 3 - impact of Federal housing expenditures seems to be substantially smaller than the impact of Federal income tax breaks. E xplicit Federal housing p o lic y , in fa c t, comes in three parts. One part, mortgage insurance under the FHA and VA has been a massive influence on the development of Santa Clara County, as i t has been on suburban development throughout the United States since the second World War. Most of the support has gone to la rg e-scale development of tract houses, a major factor in the housing and land boom in the County. In recent years such support has run between $100 and $200 m illion a year.* We intend to make estimates of the e ffe c ts of these programs on the growth of the County and of San Jose, p a rallel to our estimates of the e ffe c ts of tax p olicy. Our i n i t i a l concentration, however, has been on the current so cia l problem of the dearth of low income housing; FHA and VA have always divorced themselves from such problems (and thus helped exacerbate them) . The second segment of housing policy — far smaller and le ss powerful than FHA/VA — is that which has been e x p lic itly concerned with low income housing in one way or another. This forms the bulk of the $5 m illion a year in actual HUD expenditures going to the County. The third part of the policy — more recent — has been the attempt to promote racial and economic desegregation, using laws and regulations rather than, d o lla rs. Looking f i r s t at low-income housing programs, the picture in the County has been one of in su fficien cy . The major Federal programs that may be used to f a c ilit a t e the provision of housing for low and moderate income fam ilies in Santa Clara County include: the Section 235 Home Ownership Program, the Section 236 Rental Housing Program, and the Public Housing Program. In the Section 235 Home Ownership Program the Federal Government contracts to pay that part of the homebuyer's mortgage payment represented by the difference between the market interest rate, and a 1 percent in terest rate. Houses b u ilt under th is program are to be of modest but adequate q u ality, and generally the mortgage cannot exceed $15,000. Federal Information Service Exchange Report, op. a i t . 240 -8 4 - However, in high-cost areas such as Santa Clara County, mortgages can be as large as $24,000 for large fa m ilies. Down payments must not exceed 3 percent of the value of the house. As of November 1970 there were 30 housing pro jects, comprising 599 subsidized u n its, either completed, under construction, or with money reserved at FHA for the 235 program in Santa Clara County. Compared with an estimated requirement for some 15,000 low cost housing u n its, this number is in sig n ific a n t. Yet i t indicates that builders can be persuaded to construct low-cost housing i f financing can be arranged. The Section 236 Rental Housing Program r e lie s on private developers — both nonprofit and pro fit-o rien ted — of rental housing. The Federal Government subsidizes the difference between 25 percent of the tenant's income and market rents, with a maximum subsidy on a unit that lowers the rent to the level that would be achieved had the project been financed with a 1 percent mortgage. maintenance c osts. The basic rent of a 236 unit also includes As of November 1970, there were sixteen Section 236 housing projects with a to ta l of 2184 units either completed, under construction, or covered by a le tte r of fe a s ib ilit y . Thus, the to ta l of fe d e ra lly -assiste d low-income housing units in the County is 2783, not much of a leg up on the estimated requirement for 15,000 u n its. This to ta l does not include units under the Public Housing porgram; there are no units under the Public Housing Program. A rtic le 34 of the California Constitution requires that determination of whether a c ity or county can own public housing units must be made by referendum; the United States Supreme Court recently upheld the Federal con stitu tion a lity of this portion of the State C onstitution.* And in San Jose and Santa Clara, the electorate has approved no public housing. Housing authorities in the two ju risd ictio n s are applying for a to ta l of 4300 u n its, but given the referendum requirement, their future is conjectural. *James 7. V a ltie r r a , 402 U:S. 137, (1971). 241 -8 5 - This brings up the fin a l aspect of Federal housing policy — the legal e ffo r t to break down segregation of various types. Nationally, the Federal government has been particularly active in attempting to knock down the use of r e stric tiv e zoning to preserve segregation, and with more success than in the case of the Public Housing referendum. The Federal government has not intervened in Santa Clara County, but a parallel private su it is currently being pursued. To date, public support of discriminatory zoning regulations has continued to be an e ffe c tiv e deterrent to residen tial desegregation in the northern portion of the County, making school desegregation d if fic u lt as w ell. A Mexican-American group, the Confederacion de la Raza Unida, with some lo c a l Anglo support,has applied for an injunction against such zoning in the Northewestern section of the County. The issue is s t i l l undecided, but with the assistance of Federal policy and decisions in higher courts, i t could ultim ately allow major changes in County residential patterns. Beyond t h is , however, there seems to be a dim future for the tradition al approach to low income housing in the County. We have not yet looked at certain other instruments of Federal housing p o licy, such as the Below Market Interest Rate program (Section 221(d)3) or Rehabili tation Programs under Sections 115, 221(h), and 312, but they are unlikely to make for major changes in the picture. Our growth analysis suggests the p o s s ib ility of a new policy a ltern a tiv e, however. It may be that the chief hope for low-income housing li e s in the chief fear of the County as a whole. I f economic growth slows down substantially and migration slows down or reverses as a consequence, as is suggested by the growth-dependence model, then there are lik e ly to be many unsold tract houses around the County. It has frequently been suggested that national low income housing programs have been poorly conceived because for the most part they build new housing for the poor, rather than encouraging a far more economical process whereby those above the poverty le v e l upgrade their housing and the Federal government enables low income fam ilies to move into and maintain the decent housing l e f t behind. * To fa c i li t a t e th is , recommendations 242 - 86 - have been made for "rent c e r t ific a t e s " which low-income fam ilies could use to a ssist in the purchase of housing on the private market.* A housing market made so ft by a slowdown of growth in Santa Clara County might be an excellent test-bed for such a scheme. Whether the rent c e r tific a te s would be used to buy or rent unsold tract houses, or whether the tract houses would be sold at a discount to middle-income buyers, thus freeing up older homes, is not important. What is important is that this is a new Federal/local policy option that may be of substantial value to San Jose and Santa Clara. State and Local Policy The influence of the State of California over local p o licy, while perhaps as great as the Federal influence, is exerted in a differen t way. The Federal influence stems primarily from taxes and expenditures and consequent incentives, only occasionally through rules about: what the lo c a lity can and cannot do. The Federal effo rt to remove zoning as a tool for segregation is an example of the la tt e r , but i t is a rare example. Legally, however, the lo c a lity is a creature of the s ta te , and lo cal ju risdiction s may do only what the state allows them to do. For this reason, our i n i t i a l consideration is of state and lo cal policy together; most of the policy tools in question, from regulation to property taxation are manipulated by the lo c a lit ie s within constraints imposed by the sta te. We present here both a general discussion of some of the key issues in state and local p o licy, and the outline of a sp ecific analytical project the San Jose City Planner has asked us to work on. Both the general and the sp ecific analysis, of course, are being carried out in close conjunction with City and County o f f i c i a l s , as are the other policy assistance projects (presentation of arguments, preparation of other analytical pro jects, e t c .) discussed above. 1. Issu es. Our analysis is in two stages. identify the systemic relationships that m ilita te The f i r s t is to against e ffe c tiv e lo cal See Ira S. Lowry, Housing A ss is ta n c e f o r Low Income Urban 'F a m ilies: A Fresh Approachs Rand Corporation paper P-4645, May 1971, which was prepared for the House of Representatives Committee on Banking and Currency. 243 -8 7 - land use control and to identify lo c a l points (in stitu tion s and laws), as well as the national points discussed above, where leverage could be exerted to change the system. The second stage is to develop policy recommendations for lo cal governments on how the available policy instruments could be used more e ffe c tiv e ly within the existing system of relationships. Supporting research w ill center on questions of what ought to be done; i . e . , on substantive policy recommendations in the areas of land use, low income housing, residen tial desegregation, and control of rates of growth. H isto rica lly and currently, lo c a l policy instruments have not been used e ffe c tiv e ly for control over lo c a l events in Santa Clara County. Our analysis thus far indicates that a major reason for this has been the set of constraints and pressures imposed by Federal and state p o lic ie s . Nonetheless, i t remains true that a broad array of lega l powers and policy instruments i s available to local governments and, as part of a decision-making process closely related to the local one, state constraints can be changed i f a clear case is made for such change. Using their existing powers, the State of C alifornia and the govern ments of Santa Clara County and San Jose oou ld exert p ositive controls over population density, the sp a tia l distribution of a c t iv it ie s , and the composition of community development. The policy instruments available are well known to students of urban development. They include among others: o Fee simple and less than fee simple purchase of rights in land o Zoning and building regulation o Licensing and franchising o Land and improvement taxation o Location and timing of public u t il it y and fa c i li t y o Public service pricing p o licies o Occupancy permits improvements Theoretically, this array of powers and policy instruments should enable 244 - 88 - states and lo c a lit ie s to exert control over the rate of urban growth, lim it environmental p o llu tion , enhance community a esth etics, provide su ffic ie n t open space and recreation areas, foster residential integration, and provide adequate housing over a braod range of prices. In fa c t, no resu lts approaching these have been forthcoming. Many general solutions have been offered for the problem of lo cal in a b ility to manage development. Some argue for the necessity of forming metropolitan governments or multiple-purpose special d is t r ic t s . Arguments have been made for direct provision of services by states through multiple-purpose regional a u th o ritie s.* Local planners frequently complain that their recommendations are summarily overridden by elected o ffi c i a ls and that more powerful tools are need to guide urban development patterns. The recent Nader report, Power and Land in California,,* * argues — with particular reference to Santa Clara County *— that the u gliness, sprawl, and high so cia l costs of crazy-qu ilt developments are the result of a combination of p o lit ic a lly powerful land in te re sts, corruption among elected and appointed o f f i c i a l s , and nonfeasance by planners and regional organizations. We agree that there is a problem. We are not convinced, however, that additional lo cal policy instruments are the solution; the hypothesis coming out of analysis thus far indicates that much of the answer lie s in modifying the pressures at the Federal le v e l and in adjusting the constraints imposed at the state level on the use of current instruments. Nor are we convinced that a ll public o f f i c i a l s are fo o lish or corrupt or that a ll planners are timid and in effec tu a l. Rather, we contend that the states and m unicipalities have, inadvertently, and under substantial external pressure, used their legal powers to create a system of in stitu tio n s and incentives weighted toward in dis criminate use of land and weighted to make competition among local governments, and not collaboration, the natural mode of behavior. Our contention is that the system is so weighted that it is d i f f i c u l t , i f not almost impossible, for local governments to employ land control - Joseph F. Zimmerman, "D irect State Action to Help Solve Metropolitan Problems," State Government, Vol. XLIV, Winter 1971, No. 1, pp. 37-41. ** op. <yit. 245 -8 9 - policy instruments e ffe c tiv e ly . misfeasance. It is not a case of nonfeasance or It is a case of having defined a game that is not in favor of the house — a game in which the "public in te re st" w ill always lose in the long run. In addition to the Federal pressures discussed above, key elements in the game — or system — are existing state land taxation p o licy, necessary heavy reliance on sales and property taxes for municipal revenue, diffu sion of powers and functional r e sp o n sib ilities among lo cal governments (counties, m u nicipalities, school d is t r ic t s , special d is t r ic t s , regional auth orities, and the li k e ) , and public service pricing p o lic ie s . state le v e l. Most of the ground rules have been enacted at the The legisla tu re has created a narrow set of constraints within which the m unicipalities must a ct. Within this narrow set of constraints, the m unicipalities have l i t t l e discretionary room, but they do have considerable incentives to maximize their own narrow in te re sts. There are few incentives for individual local units to view problems from a county-wide perspective, much less from a regional perspective. We would contend, therefore, that many of the e ffo r ts toward municipal reform are misdirected. I f lo cal government behavior is to be changed, there w ill have to be changes at the state level where the ground rules are made. Four related examples serve to illu stra ted the system-induced pressures and constraints on w ell-intentioned and sk illed public o ffic ia ls who attempt to guide urban development and to collaborate with adjoining ju risd ic tio n s. In each case, attempts have been made to s h ift the pressures and get around the constraints, but these attempts have met with only modest success. Two recent attempts, however, show substantial promise. One, a "Mayor’ s Sign -off Program," giving the Mayor of San Jose substantial power over Federal expenditures throughout the County, has been introduced on an experimental basis by HUD. The other is a deus e x machina that may prove in the end to have more potential for change than anything else — a California Supreme Court decision outlawing the differences in lo c a l property tax base as a basis for differences in educational spending by school d is t r ic t s . 246 -9 0 - a. Balkanization. For many reasons — the fight for property tax base being chief among them — c itie s in California have frequently become fie rc e ly competitive for geographical control. Offensive and defensive annexations to capture tax base have generated crazy-quilt municipal boundaries, with San Jose's perhaps being the craziest of a ll — a gerrymander eaten by moths. Concessions have been made to developers or firms by permitting these private in terests to externalize costs — charge them to general tax-supported revenues on the general theory that the returns to the tax base w ill be greater than these costs. This is at the heart of the dependence of tax base upon continued growth as indicated in our growth-dependence model. We discuss below a systematic attempt to estimate the costs and revenue benefits of new development over the long run. The system thus encourages even c i t i e s , whose electorates might otherwise have strong social consciences, to compete to exclude the poor, low income housing, and firms that require more municipal services than their taxes would cover. strong in social conscience. And by no means are a ll electorates In either case, the result is exclusionary zoning in an attempt to keep out undesired uses, and zoning much more land for industry than w ill ever be used. In this example, the game has been defined for local government as a zero-sum game. If one city wins, the other can only lo se. There are few, i f any, incentives for collaboration among governments on any matters of c r it ic a l importance. A ll the incentives for local o ffi c i a ls are weighted in favor of Balkanization — the current system helps those in a favored position to protect what they have and to attempt to enhance i t . Thus, in addition to being a zero-sum game, the game is weighted to favor those who are best o f f . Some steps have been taken to control annexation in California counties through creation in 1963 of Local Agency Formation Commissions (LAFCO). The Nader report* contends that the Santa Clara County LAFCO has worked * op. o z t . 3 p. VI-36 247 -91- very slowly to e ffe c t change and that i t has not been particularly successful in lim iting annexations. In fa c t, i f one compares Santa Clara’ s LAFCO not to the Nader id e a l, but to the situation that prevailed before 1963, i t can be argued that offensive and defensive annexations in the County have been reduced, in large part as a result of the County LAFCO's a c t iv it ie s . In any event, LAFCO's are peculiar to C alifornia. Although their effectiveness varies considerably among counties, annexation b attles continue in many parts of the country without the benefit of such referees. b. Diffusion of Power. Another closely related illu str a tio n centers on the diffu sion of powers among ty p es of government as opposed to the simpler Balkanization of an area into many sim ilar governments. governments are s p lit up by function Local in most areas of the country; general-purpose lo cal government hardly e x is ts . Santa Clara’ s m unicipalities do not control the location or timing of school construction, sewer extensions,* water service, and flood control; this does not leave them in much of a position to influence where and when development takes place. In the case of San Jose, each of these services is provided by a separate, single purpose ju risd ic tio n . It would require a super-human jo in t e ffo r t of the City and the County to coordinate the timing of such improvements to manage development. Indeed this diffu sion provides another reason why local developers and speculators have been able to get so much of what they want. Diffused power and confused control has provided a fie ld for "the old Army game" of playing one authority o ff against another. Again, there have been some attempts in Santa Clara County to cope with this d if fic u lt y . An informal organization of public planning o f f i c i a l s , the Planning Policy Committee (PPC), has attempted to coordinate the location and timing of public improvements by C o u n ty and m u n i cipal agencies within the County boundaries. County o f f i c i a l s intro duced a b i l l into the State Assembly which would provide enabling le g is lation permitting the PPC to be formalized and giving i t formal powers *The City of San Jose controls most, but not a ll of i t s own sewers. Some are privately owned. 248 -9 2 of coordination within the County. The enabling le g isla tio n would make sim ilar in stitu tio n s possible in each of the Sta te’ s counties. The innovative e ffo r ts within the County o ffer the opportunity to evaluate the effica cy of such home-grown attempts to cope with the complex problems of coordination. In addition, another b i l l , the Knox b i l l , which would go far toward the creation of regional government in the entire San Francisco Bay Area, which includes Santa Clara County, could make for substantial lo cal improvement. Another possibly very powerful attempt to cope with the problems related to both kinds of power diffu sion — Balkanization and special-purpose authorities — stems from the Federal government. The San Jose Standard Metropolitan S ta tis tic a l Area has been selected as an experimental target for a "planned deviation" of the Model C ities program. This version, "th e Mayor's Sign -off Program," w ill give the mayor of San Jose a veto over the spending of Federal funds within the San Jose SMSA, even o u ts id e th e C i t y 's b o u n d a ries* The San Jose SMSA, however, is Santa Clara County, and the veto power extends even to Palo A lto , a fact which has caused some apprehension in other c i t i e s . odd program as applied to California. In fa c t, this is a rather The Federal program is apparently based on an Eastern conception of metropolitan areas where there is a strong central city and many smaller suburbs clustered around i t . Santa Clara County situation is considerably d iffe re n t, The San Jose is larger than surrounding c i t i e s , but only because of an aggressive annexation program during the s ix t ie s . It is not, in the traditional sense, the decaying central city of a metropolitan area. Nevertheless, the Federal program would provide the mayor of San Jose with a strong voice in the a ffa irs of c itie s that consider themselves the equal of San Jose. Sim ilarly, the California county is not the equivalent of i t s weak Eastern counterpart. Some knowledgeable local observers suggest that many of the ju risd ictio n al problems stem from the fact that Santa Clara County has been acting lik e a weak Eastern county, even though i t need not. In fa c t, the external pressures, constraints, and structures push the County in the same direction of in effec tu a lity that they press a ll ju r is d ic tio n s . This does not cover m ilitary spending or purchase of goods from firms in Santa Clara County, of course. 249 -9 3 - For a number of reasons, the workings of the Mayor’ s Sign -off Program in Santa Clara County w ill be important to observe. It w ill provide a test of our hypothesis concerning the crucial nature of the external pressures and constraints, which can be substanially affected by this program, u n less the external pressures on the program mean that i t w ill be used as in e ffe c tiv e ly as most current powers. In addition, the experience w ill provide an opportunity to evaluate the consequences of a Federal urban policy that does not take into account the rather sign ifica n t differences among metropolitan regions based on regional location , structural variation s, and the nature of the sa lien t problems within the individual metropolitan areas. The experience w ill very lik e ly suggest the need for a s e t of national urban p o lic ies rather than a single national urban p olicy. c. Leap-frog development. A third example of the way the system precludes e ffe c tiv e control of development, even when policy instruments ex ist le g a lly , is the lack of control over leap-frog development and sprawl. As housing tracts are developed among the orchards and vine yards of Santa Clara County, i t becomes increasingly uneconomic to retain adjoining lands in productive orchards. In large measure, this is because California assessors are required to assess land at i t s highest and best use. An orchard across the street from a housing tract is assessed, not on i t s orchard use, but in terms of i t s poten tial for housing. I t must be either held o ff the market for speculative purposes or be sold for tract housing or other intensive development. Land can be held from development for speculative purposes. As has been noted, purchasers have been able to purchase land for very l i t t l e principal down and to prepay in te re st, thus gaining a rather substantial tax break. By holding the land for a r ela tiv ely short period of time, the speculator is able to r e s e ll the land — which has greatly increased in value because of the adjoining development — and realize capital gains, another tax break. The farmer who holds land from the market despite increased taxes, and the land speculator who holds land out from development, encourage 250 -9 4 - leap-frog development. Developers, who are also interested in acquiring cheap land and realizing capital gains, find such land beyond the developed areas. They create and market a tra c t, then demand municipal services or create a special d is tr ic t to provide one or two basic services. When u t i l i t i e s must be extended beyond agricultural land to these new tra c ts, costs are externalized by the developer to the rest of the community. M unicipalities permit this kind of development for reasons which have been discussed: because of their dependence on the property tax; and because planning commissions and other land regulating commissions are subject to major pressure by development in te re sts. An attempt has been made in California to relieve some of these pressures by protecting land at the urban fringe from having high taxes force i t from agricultural production to urban uses. The Sta te’ s Williamson Act provides that land tracts can continue to be taxed on the basis of current use rather than on the basis of potential urban uses, i f the land owner enters into an agreement with the county, stating that the land w ill not be converted to urban uses for a stipulated period of time. The usual time period is ten years. The land owner may, however, convert the land to urban uses before the end of the agreed upon time i f he obtains the consent of the county government. The county is empowered to levy penalties against the landowner i f i t so chooses. There is considerable evidence that the Williamson Act has been used and misused frequently in Santa Clara to frustrate the intent of the Act. Local o f f i c i a l s have told us informally that the Act does not appear to have been particularly e ffe c tiv e . In Power and Land in C a lifo r n ia 3 various applications of the Act are cited that cast doubt on i t s efficacy as a development control instrument.* The thrust of both the informal evaluations and the Nader Report has been that the land taken o ff the market is much le ss lik e ly to be saleable than that l e f t on; and that in case of a bad guess by a landowner who wants to take his land out from under Williamson, the pressures on the County not to levy major penalties are strong. There does not appear to e x is t, however, a systematic and rigorous evaluation of the impact of the Williamson Act. o p . a i t . j p. 11-23, f f . 251 -9 5 - These examples are fam iliar ones to frustrated planners and to students of urban development. They are, however, illu s tr a tiv e of the complexities and interrelatedness of in stitu tio n s, laws, and govern mental structure at state and local levels concerning land development and intergovernmental rela tio n s. Indeed, i t is the systemic nature of the situation that has governed the approach being taken in this project to the matter of development p o lic ie s. While some might think that changing the rules of the game to redefine the system within which lo cal government operates is either too d if fic u lt or too radical a step, the rules are already being changed. L itigation is the main thrust of such changes. d. Property taxation. Just as the most important Federal pressure on lo cal policy may be that stemming from the incentives set up by the income tax, i t seems quite lik e ly that the most important s t a t e /lo c a l pressure stems from the fa ct that the property tax provides the major source of lo cal revenue. The e ffe c t of the property tax in encouraging Balkanization has already been discussed; at least as important is the fact that the regressive nature of the tax and i t s fa ilu re to expand revenues with general economic expansion exert great downward pressure on lo cal cap ab ilities to finance education and other services. The la tte r is an important factor in perpetuating the so cia l problems we have discussed. The property tax is generally agreed to be a very bad tax .* In C aliforn ia, le g is la tiv e e ffo r ts to put i t on a statewide basis to at least equalize cap ab ilities among school d is tr ic ts with vastly differen t resources, and/or to substitute revenues from the state income tax, have been attempted for years, but have fa ile d for p o lit ic a l reasons. The C alifornia Supreme Court, however, has recently made a very sign ifican t move which w ill apparently shortcut the p o lit ic a l system, and substantially modify dependence on local property taxes for educational finance'and perhaps for a ll services. In the case of Serrano v. P riest, the court held that the quality of public education, as measured in dollars expended, may not be a function of the wealth of the taxing ju r isd ic tio n .** The basic reference on the property tax is Dick Netzer, Economics o f th e P ro p erty Tax, (Washington: Brookings, 1966). John S erran o, J r ., e t . a l . v. Iv y Baker P r i e s t , e t . Reporter 345. a l. 89 Cal. 252 -9 6 - That i s , i t is a denial of equal protection of the laws for a child to be deprived of quality education simply because he liv e s in a r e la tiv e ly poor d is tr ic t in terms of tax base. The court's logic could be extended ea sily to other basic public services: sewers, health and welfare serv ices, police and fir e protection, and so forth . In i t s decision the court made a major attack on the existing rules of the system, but without the benefit of rigorous analysis of the lik e ly consequences of i t s decision. I f the decision s tic k s , i t may be the most powerful possible instrument for change in lo cal government, in San Jose and elsewhere. Nor is the California educational finance case an isolated instance. In Mahwah, New Jersey, a c itiz e n s' group has file d suit against a municipality on a related matter. The municipality in question provided space for an automotive plant within i t s municipal boundaries, but refused to provide adequate space for low income housing for the workers who would be employed by that plant. In this and the previous case, the courts have been faced with making decisions that would fundamentally a lte r the system within which lo cal decisions are made. More w ill be known about the role of taxation as our lo cal policy analysis progresses, but i t is intended that alternative approaches to land and improvement taxation w ill be analyzed to estimte their lik e ly impacts on developmental patterns within the area. In addition to examining near-term policy options, we intend to analyze lik e ly impacts of Henry George type taxes on incremental land values, separate taxation of land and improvements on land, and so forth. Attention w ill be paid to matters of equity and to the reliance of lo cal governments on property taxes. In addition to attempting to define the system of land development and identifying leverage points for changing that system at the state and lo cal le v e l, the study w ill include e ffo r ts to improve state and lo cal decision-making within the existing system. Despite our e ffo r ts to learn how to change the systsm, i t is lik e ly that the system w ill not be changed in a ll places at the same time. It is also lik e ly that reform w ill take some time, particularly in view of the number and variety of in terests involved. 253 -9 7 - The projected public survey discussed above (in part I I I ) becomes quite relevant here. In discussing policy options, we are necessarily touching matters that are very sen sitive to in te re sts, attitu d e s, and * norms. We do not propose to use either our own normative judgments, or even our own survey-based judgments about what the public norms are. Rather, survey resu lts w ill be used to help us work with responsible public o ffi c i a ls to determine and interpret the norms created by the p o lit ic a l process. Conceptual norms alone w ill not s u ffic e , however. Equally relevant are bureaucratic and p o lit ic a l factors bearing on the possible development and execution of p o licy. would be extremely naive. To equate attitudes with p o lit ic a l forces For instance, we are able, as discussed above, to do some modeling of land speculation without discussing land speculators, but in talking about future p o licy, the influence of speculators and builders in aiding or obstructing such policy is obviously important and must be considered. One b rie f h isto r ic a l study that is lik e ly to be useful here w ill be an analysis of city policy for almost two decades under previous city manager, "Dutch" Hamann. Hamann is damned by some as the author of the San Jose annexation and zoning p o licies that led to the sprawl.* Others — disinterested individuals from San Jose — have told us that Hamann was one of the best city managers in the country for the time. In any case he retired — apparently not completely voluntarily — in 1967, and p o lit ic a l analysis of the conditions that led to both his rise and his f a l l may throw considerable lig h t on future policy p o s s ib ilit ie s . 2. Modelling the public costs of new development. One sp e c ific re quest for policy assistance made by the San Jose City Planning Director con cerns his need for estimates of the f u l l costs of the City and other public authorities of newly opened residen tial development. His hope is to s h ift more of these costs to the land developers who benefit from the Stanford Environment Law Society, op. a i t . As noted above, our own hypothesis is that i t was growth that led to the sprawl and, while p o lic ies in these categories could have meliorated the e ffe c ts of the growth, the problem would s t i l l have been an acute one. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 7 254 -9 8 - provision of services by the City, the County, the school d i s t r i c t s , and so fo rth ; his analytical need is for quantified backup on what these costs are, and how they compare with the revenues brought in by new development. Our approach, which is s t i l l in i t s very early stage, w ill make heavy use of the census tract cluster analysis discussed above. The issue must be interpreted not in terms of residential development in general, but for sp e cific types of development. Santa Clara County's population liv es V irtu ally a ll of in residential developments, of one sort or another, constructed since 1950; yet the cluster analysis indicates that differen t areas have taken very differen t courses. We do not now know whether the differen t clusters stem from differen t sorts of i n i t i a l development or differen t time stages in the same general type of development. We suspect some combinations of reasons; in any case, data are available to provide answers. Santa Clara County has a record, by Census tra c t, of a ll new residential subdivisions in the County since 1956, with date, s iz e , and other information. From this we can quantify, for each Census tract and each cluster of tra c ts, the degree to which differences depend upon in it ia l development, and the degree to which they depend upon age. And, beginning with this i n i t i a l analysis, we can draw time patterns of new development in the County: what are the current characteristics of tracts with d ifferen t types of i n i t i a l development age. and of different We w ill then have zero-to-ten-year time tracks (fourteen-year maximum, i f su ffic ie n t 1970 Census data are published so we do not have to depend on 1966 data) showing the changes from new development to rela tiv e maturity — conversion of the 1966 (or 1970) cross-section into a time series via the assumption that a tract in which the average develop ment is four years old in 1966 represents the fourth year of the time track, and so forth. The fin a l step w ill be to estimate revenues and some service costs by Census tra c t, to attribute such revenues and costs to the fourth year after development, the f i f t h , e tc . Property tax revenue data are available 255 -9 9 - in this form, but some service expenditure data are not. Fortunately, the greatest single public cost — education — can be put on a Census tract b asis. So can Public Assistance. can be assigned on a sim ilar b a sis. Sewers have fixed locations and Discussions with City o ffi c i a ls convince us that rough estimates can be made on a tract basis for such services as police and fi r e protection (water and sanitation in San Jose are p r iv a te ), so that the bulk of public expenditures w ill be represented. The result of this process w ill be a quantified "conceptual model" lik e the growth models set forth above. This in i t s e l f w ill be of sub s ta n tia l value ot the City in setting general p o licy. In addition, we hope that, working with the City and IBM, we can convert i t to an operational service model that w ill make possible at least rough pre dictions of the results of sp e cific new developments. I f so, i t can become a powerful tool of policy analysis, bearing on key decisions to be made by public o f f i c i a l s . 256 - V 100 - CONCLUSIONS The work reported on here is an example of what might be termed ec lec tic and developmental systems analysis. Starting with a general assignment to examine alternative growth strategies for San Jose, we have: id en tified what we believe to be a set of central problems; analyzed them as problems, both individually and as they relate to one another; projected their implications for the future; and turned then to questions of policy alternatives for avoiding the problems, solving them, or meliorating them. In the course of the four months in which the work behind this report was done, our methods have ranged from econometric modeling to long run philosophizing; they have included non-parametric s t a t i s t i c a l analysis, analysis of survey data, use of economic and p o lit ic a l theory, use of class knowledge of urban planning and problems, obtaining and using sp ecific class knowledge on San Jose, and — perhaps in some sense most important — development of ideas that have sprung from a l l the other methods. Central to the e ffo r t has been the fact that the ideas we have developed have not been only our own — they have been developed in conjunction with o ffi c i a ls of San Jose and Santa Clara County, employees of private companies lik e IBM, and local academics. The e ffo r t began with a v is i t of the (then) two project leaders to talk with San Jose City Manager Fletcher, continued a few days later with the descent of eight team members who fanned out through the unsuspecting v illa g e of San Jose looking for data and ideas, and has continued with many trips back and forth sin c e.* Nonetheless, most of the work has taken place in Santa Monica using documents, ideas, and data from San Jose — published and unpublished data including Census data, data from City and County f i l e s , and data from various private sources. We came back to our desks, typewriters, This particular method of-operation (short v is i t s ) w i l l, of course, have to change as we analyze urban areas farther from our home base of Santa Monica than San Jose. 257 -1 0 1 - books, calculators, and computers and undertook the in te lle c tu a l work necessary to make coherent the mass of information and ideas at hand. A ll this is e c le c tic . The crucial job is to build a structure of problems and p o lic ies and a pattern for their analysis. Starting with undigested quantitative data and qualitative information, we have derived hypotheses concerning various p o licies and problems and have begun to test them. What is most important, however, is neither the hypotheses nor the t e s t s ; i t is the policy impact. The ultimate test of this li e s in the future; our strong b e li e f, however, is that we have laid a so lid foundation for such impact. As discussed in the companion piece to this report Rand Urban P o lic y Program: S tra te g y f o r S e le c t io n o f C i t i e s and F ir s t -Y e a r P la n , the analysis of San Jose and Santa Clara County is expected to be the f i r s t in a se r ie s . The program is designed so that subsequent urban analysis w ill take up very differen t complexes of problems in very differen t urban areas. As discussed in the companion piece, planned variations of such analysis is essen tia l to the examination of national urban p o lic ie s . What w ill remain constant w ill not be the analytical structure of problems ana p o lic ies we have b u ilt for San Jose; rather i t w ill be the developmental method of building such an analytical structure appropriate to each new area under investigation. 258 - 102 - Appendix PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS TO OBTAIN CENSUS TRACT CLUSTERS Our preliminary analysis of low income problems in Santa Clara County was almost exclusively dependent on data reported by census tract for the years I960, 1966, and 19 70. The data base for this report is the same. Thus, when we speak of changes over time — an increase in household income in a tra c t, for instance — note that we cannot be sure whether the e ffe c t is due to the upward mobility of the original households or to geographic sh ifts of fam ilies into and out of the tra ct. Also in our preliminary analysis, we used a combination of indicators reported in P r o f i l e 1969: A Sooio-E conom ic P r o f i l e o f Santa Clara County* to identify clusters of census tracts which varied in the seriousness of their socio-economic problems. With the crude index that we developed at that time, we were able to divide tracts into three clu sters: the c r it ic a l clu ster, defined as those tracts which were in the lowest or next lowest q u in tile on every measure; the su b critica l clu ster, defined as those tracts which f e l l in the lowest or next lowest qu in tile on various combinations of economic and so cia l measures; and the remaining tra c ts, defined as the n oncritical c lu ste r .** While these clusters enabled us to summarize the available data in meaningful ways, we wanted to reduce the arbitrary character of the index as much as possible. Further, we suspected that our su b critica l clu ster, esp ecia lly , contained tracts whose differences from one another would be more interesting and useful to consider than the sim ila r itie s that had led to the i n i t i a l grouping. Thus, we chose to do a Principal Components Analysis to place tracts into groups on the basis of nine economic and so cia l variables reported in the 1966 special census of Santa Clara County. These variables are percent *The P r o f i l e was prepared by the Social Planning Council of Santa Clara County. Half the indicators used data from the 1966 special census of Santa Clara County while others (public assistance, juvenile probation, e tc .) were based on more recent data. **see, A lte r n a tiv e Growth S t r a te g ie s f o r San J o se3 Preliminary Report of the Rand Urban Analysis Project, pp. 38-43. 259 -1 0 3 - on public assistance, percent unemployed, percent owner occupied housing, percent persons over 25 years with less than 8 years formal education, household s iz e , median income percent persons 65 years or over, percent persons 19 years or under, percent persons who are Mexican-American. The means, standard deviations, and correlations of these nine variables are reported in Table A -l. The reader should note that the f i r s t fiv e variables have been defined in such a way that larger values would generally be thought of as "good "; thus a mean of 92.2 on the public assistance indicates that the average tra ct had 92.2 percent persons not on public assistance and a mean of 88.4 on the education variable indicates that the average tract has 88.4 percent persons 25 or over who have completed more than eight years o f school. 260 -104- Table A-l CORRELATIONS, MEANS, STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS3 NPAst Emplt 0 Occ NLoEd M Inc HH Sz >65 I 19 MexAm 92.2 7.7 95.5 4.0 59.5 21.1 88.4 7.6 8323 2651 3.2 .6 7.1 4.8 36.9 8.9 10.6 12.2 1.00 .84 .51 .83 .73 .16 -.31 .10 -.90 .84 1.00 .43 .77 .66 .18 -.33 .12 -.81 .51 .43 1.00 .40 .77 .66 -.34 .65 -.38 .83 .77 .40 1.00 .74 .08 -.27 .01 -.86 .73 .66 .77 .74 1.00 .42 -.34 .39 -.64 .16 .18 .66 .08 .42 1.00 -.73 .95 .06 -.31 -.33 -.34 -.27 -.34 -.73 1.00 -.71 .12 .10 .12 .65 .01 .39 .95 -.71 1.00 .11 -.90 -.81 -.38 -.86 -.64 .06 .12 .11 1.0 ns*1, S t d . Devs: relations: NPAst Emplt Owner Occup. N Lo Ed M Income HH Sz >65 <19 MexAm ^ e have used data for 125 of the 127 census tracts in Santa Clara County, excluding tracts 47 and 49 which correspond to Moffett Field and Agnew State Hospital. ^We have used unweighted means to place tracts into groupings. Thus, though some tracts may have 80 times as many people as others, we have counted all tracts equal for this portion of the analysis. 261 -1 0 5 - The strongest correlation in the matrix is between percent persons under 19 and household size (.9 5 ) confirming the rather prosaic observation that large households are primarily households with many children in them. The other very strong correlations, apart from the obvious intercorrelations between the economic measures we have used, are the negative correlations between percent Mexican-American and the measures of economic w ell-being, eg. - . 9 with percent not on public assistance, - .8 1 with percent employed, -.8 6 with percent persons with moderate or above levels of formal education, e tc . The fact that 12% of a l l people in the county over 25 years of age have not gone beyond the eighth grade may be combined with these strong negative correlations between the economic variables and percent MexicanAmerican to suggest that a large percentage of the Mexican-American community in the county has been associated with the declining agricultural industry. In the Principal Components analysis, the variables measured for 125 tracts are thought of as being plotted in nine dimensional space and these variables are transformed by rotations to determine whether or not they li e esse n tia lly in a lower dimensional subspace. In these data, 92 percent of the variance li e s in a three dimensional subspace, and in Table A-2 we present the three principal components which are orthogonal to one another and which describe th is subspace. 262 -106- Table A - 2 VARIABLE LOADINGS ON 3 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS Comp No. EigVl3 C Stdb 1 .547 .739 .292 .541 .080 .282 2 NPA3t Emplt 0 Occ NLoEd M Inc HH Sz *-65 -19 MexAm .39 .36 .37 .40 .24 -.24 .20 -.35 -.23 -.20 .20 -.26 .00 .52 -.36 .53 .35 -.02 .14 .58 -.19 .31 .04 .71 .00 .11 .39° ^ h e eigen value entry represents the fraction of the total variance corresponding to the component. Thus, component 1 represents 54.7 percent of the variance; component 2, 29.2 percent of the variance; component 3, 8 percent of the variance. The other 8 percent of the variance lies in the remaining six dimensions; we have ignored this remaining variance because it is both small and difficult to interpret what the other variables might be. ^These values represent the square root of the eigen value. The ratios of these square roots of eigen values from component to component indicates the ratio of the major to the minor axis of the elipse representing the two dimensions under consider ation. CThese values provide the orthogonal coefficients of the nine standardized variables which determine component loadings. 263 -1 0 7 - The f i r s t principal component for a given tract corresponds to multiplying .39 times the standardized percentage* of people not on public assistance plus .39 times the standardized percent of people employed, plus .36 times the standardized percent of dwellings which are owner occupied, and so forth. The second and third principal components are defined the same way, that i s , by multiplying - .2 3 times the standardized percent of people not on public assistance, plus - .2 0 times the standardized percent of people employed, and so forth for the second principal component - and the same procedure for the third principal component. Since the f i r s t principal component is p o sitiv e on every economic variable, is not so heavily dependent on household size or age, and is negatively depen dent on percent Mexican-American persons in the tra c ts, we found i t reasonable to think of this component as an indicator of economic welfare. The second principal component puts strong po sitiv e weight on household s iz e , the percent persons under nineteen (note that the weights are almost equal on these variables, and that they are highly correlated) and percent of persons who are Mexican-American. Negative weights are placed on education, public assistance, employment, and a slig h t po sitiv e weight on owner occupied housing. This weighting scheme suggests that the second component is an indicator of rela tiv ely large fa m ilies, with r ela tiv ely low income often of MexicanAmerican eth n icity. The primary emphasis in the second component, however, is on fa m ilie s .* * *Standardized variables are simply the values for each tract corrected by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation, so that they represent the number of standard deviation away from the mean on the variable in question. **The use of the standard deviation for determining important differences may have had much to do with the fact that the second principal component depends heavily on fa m ilies, since the importance of a variable when working with standardized variables depends in part on i t s standard deviation, and the standard deviation o f household s iz e , (.6 ) is fa ir ly sm all. This may be acting to in fla te the importance of household s iz e . 264 -1 0 8 - The third principal component has i t s heaviest values on those over 65 in homes that are owner occupied. The distin ction occurring in this component is related to age and home ownership. These weights together with the negative weighting on median income in this component indicates that tracts which have strong positive scores on the component contain people who are moderately w e ll-o ff , own their own homes, and are older. Tracts which score in a strong negative direction thus contain people who are rela tiv ely low income, younger renters. In summary, we id en tified three principal components* which explain 92 percent of the to ta l variance: (1) an economic w ell-being component, representing 54.7 percent of the variance, (2) a large, poor fam ilies component, representing 29.2 percent of the variance, and (3) an older, homeowners (or, indigenous) component, representing 8 percent of the variance. By means of these three principal components, then, we reduced a nine dimensional problem to a three dimensional problem. An attempt at cluster analysis demonstrated that there are no "c lu s te r s " of tracts in Santa Clara County in a s t r ic t ly s t a t i s t i c a l sense. This simply means that while one tract may d iffe r a great deal from another, there are many tracts in between which tend to make the transformation from one tract to another more or less continuous. Bimodalities and m ultim odalities, necessary to clustering in the s t r ic t sense, are esse n tia lly missing from the data. However, we found that tracts which had the largest and sm allest loadings on the fi r s t principal component were never extremely negative on the second principal component. This suggested a method for grouping the tra c ts. Using a two dimensional subspace, with the x axis being the f i r s t principal component *The fourth principal component represented 3 .5 percent of the variance, and i t seemed that the primary feature being explained by the values on the component was the fact that some of the tracts are heterogeneous. We have ignored this component because of it s small variation and because no useful interpretation could be derived from i t . 265 -1 0 9 - and the y axis being the second principal component, we grouped tracts into s ix clu sters* - a term we continue to use with the understanding that i t s imagery far outweighs i t s s t a t i s t i c a l accuracy. These new clusters have considerable though not complete agreement with the groupings e lic ite d from our ea rlier index. Table C shows the tracts included in each cluster and indicates how they were placed according to the e a rlier index. We have achieved two major advantages by this approach. F ir s t, we have increased the accuracy o f the clu sters. For example, tract 126 which was formerly rated as su b critic a l now f a ll s in the cluster of lowest economic w ell-b ein g; tract 88 which was formerly rated as c r it ic a l has moved to a cluster of low (though not lowest) economic w ell-bein g. Since tract 126 is considerably lower on every economic variable than tract 88, i t is obvious that the c la s s ific a tio n has been improved. Second, we have reduced the heterogeneity o f the 32 tracts in our former su b critica l c lu ster. About h alf of these tracts now f a l l in cluster 3 and one-third in cluster 2. In the following discussion i t w ill become apparent that these two clusters are quite differen t in their so cia l (demographic) characteristics and that while both share a sim ilar le v e l of economic deprivation, their more sp e c ific economic problems vary quite rad ica lly . The most apparent anomaly is that fiv e su b critic a l tracts (of the e a rlier defin ition ) now l i e in Cluster 5 - a set of tracts whose economic problems are not extreme. In terestin g ly , these turn out to be tracts with the highest Mexican-American populations for the *In the two dimensional subspace, the x axis ( f i r s t principal component) runs from a minimum value of -5 .9 5 to a maximum value of 4.0 88; the y value extends from - 4 .8 to 4.095 (the second principal component). For clu ster 1, we combined the 17 tracts which were sm allest on the f i r s t principal component, including a ll tracts whose value li e s below - 2 . 9 . Clusters 2 and 3 correspond to a ll tracts whose f i r s t principal component is between - 2 .9 and 0 , 0 being the central value. A tract f a ll s in clu ste r 2 i f the second principal com ponent was le ss than -1 .2 5 ; otherwise, the tract is placed in clu ster 3. (The value -1 .2 5 was chosen because a l l tracts in cluster 1 had second principal components greater than - 1 .2 5 ) . Clusters 4 and 5 are defined as those tracts with f i r s t principal component between 0 and 1 .5 . Cluster 4 includes those tracts with second principal component values less than -1 .2 5 ; and remaining tracts f a l l in c lu ster 5 . Cluster 6 includes a ll tracts whose f i r s t principal component exceeds 1 .5 . 266 -noclu ster. With the exception of tract 35, these tracts rank lowest in the cluster on the economic well-being component. Nevertheless, their overall characteristics are much closer to the dominantly Anglo white tracts of their cluster than to the tracts of Cluster 3, for example, where higher percentages of Mexican-Americans liv e . 267 -1 1 1 - Table A -3 SANTA CLARA COUNTY CENSUS TRACTS, BY CLUSTER 1 [ 8] [17] [10] [14] [12] [18] 126 6 [11] [19] [37] [ 7] [36] [15] [ 2] [46] 1 2 20 9 113 57 16 95 71 4 13 51 94 115 91 5 23 97 3 3 124 [96] 121 56 [31] 52 125 [88] 123 40 41 [87] 86 24 34 127 65 122 39 4 5 6 25 107 70 22 59 116 112 114 103 21 32 50 38 93 118 60 55 58 92 90 89 43 85 64 54 35 27 67 63 33 26 98 53 109 45 106 48 120 72 44 77 42 110 28 99 30 66 80 78 68 73 105 119 82 62 29 83 84 61 104 102 69 74 100 76 79 111 81 108 117 75 101 Numbers In brackets indicate c r it i c a l tracts in ea rlier c la s s ific a tio n Numbers in i t a li c s indicate su b critica l tracts in ea rlier c la s s ific a tio n Numbers in arabic indicate n oncritical tracts in ea rlier c la s s ific a tio n 269 WN-7658-NSF October 1971 RAND URBAN POLICY PROGRAM: AND FIRST YEAR-PLAN STRATEGY FOR SELECTION OF CITIES Rand Urban Policy Analysis Group prepared for the NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION T h is N o t e w as p r e p a r e d t o f a c i l i t a t e c o m m u n i c a t i o n o f p r e l i m in a r y research results. Views o r co ncl us ion s expressed h e re in m ay be te n ta tiv e a n d d o n o t r e p r e s e n t t h e o f f i c i a l o p i n i o n o f th e s p o n s o rin g agency. SANTA MONICA, CA. 90406 8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 1 8 270 -iii- CONTENTS PREFACE AND SUMMARY........................................... ............................................................ 1 Section I. INTRODUCTION............................................... .......................................................... 5 II. SELECTION OF URBAN A R E A S ................‘.............................................. 7 7 G e n e r a liz a t io n ............................................................................................ In stitu tio n al Factors in Choice of C it ie s .................................... 19 III. FIRST-YEAR PLAN................................................................................................... 25 Major Studies................................................................................................... 25 Supplementary Studies................................................................................. 29 Appendix 1. CORRESPONDENCE FROM URBAN OFFICIALS.........................................................37 2. DATA SOURCES AND UTILIZATION........................................................................ 43 3. BIBLIOGRAPHY OF RAND URBAN PROBLEMS PUBLICATIONS........................... 56 271 RAND URBAN POLICY PROGRAM: STRATEGY FOR SELECTION OF CITIES AND FIRST-YEAR PLAN PREFACE AND SUMMARY The proposed Rand program o f Urban Policy Analysis has two major o b jectiv es: o To provide assistance in the design and choice of o To provide sim ilar assistance in the design and choice of policy altern atives to l o c a l and s t a t e decisionmakers, national urban p o lic ie s to f e d e r a l decisionmakers. The lo c a l objective is exemplified by the companion piece to th is £ paper, the i n i t i a l report on A lt e r n a t i v e Growth S t r a t e g ie s f o r San J o s e . The subject of th is paper is how a lim ited number (eight to ten) in-depth analyses of sp e c ific metropolitan areas can contribute to national urban p o lic ie s , how the eight to ten areas w ill be chosen to make a maximum contribution to such p o lic ie s , and how the choices fo r the f i r s t year of the program (San Jose, S t. Louis, and S e attle) f i t into th is strategy of se le c tio n . I t is obvious that no approach to s t a t i s t i c a l generalization about a l l American urban areas is possible from a sample of eight to ten areas; i t seems lik e ly , in fa c t , that the variety of urban areas is such that generalization of th is sort would be d i f f i c u lt regardless of the siz e of the sample. We are aiming for gen eralization, but generalization of a broader, n o n -s ta tis tic a l so rt. Indeed, one major conclusion may be that the sp e c ific e ffe c ts of many national p o lic ie s on d iffe re n t areas d iffe r so much that such p o lic ies w ill have to be carefu lly adapted, case by c a s e .. To look for such sp e c ific e f fe c t s , as w ell as wider applications of p o licy, we have designed a strategy of planned variations to ensure that the variety of urban areas i s represented in the sample. Statements about national urban p o lic ie s — and their differin g e ffe c ts on various types of areas — can then be drawn from analysis designed to uncover fundamental relationships within and among d ifferen t functional *Rand Corporation Working Note //7657-NSF, October, 1971. 272 - 2- realms (demographic, economic, p o li t i c a l, e t c .) in d ifferen t sorts of urban areas. The strategy of choice has four major c h a ra c teristic s: o Specification of a few key dimensions along which o A sequential selectio n process by which, since the the sample should vary, needed dimensions of variation w ill be more fu lly understood as a resu lt of the f i r s t analyses of sp e c ific areas, choice of areas a fter the f i r s t set w ill wait upon substantial analysis of the f i r s t s e t . o Supplementation of the sample of depth analyses with smaller projects designed to f i l l in gaps in the sample, to gather information from other ongoing related p ro jec ts, and to a s s is t in the process of aggregation, o Generalizations — including generalizations about uitfeiisiLy — fiom the Lliiee previous steps. of generalization has already begun. This sort Our San Jose analysis suggests, for example, that federal p o lic ie s not ordinarily specified as urban — e . g . , m ilitary procurement and tax p o lic ie s — lim it severely the space within which lo c a l authorities can make e ffe c tiv e p o lic y . This is a hypothesis we w ill trace through the various areas we in ve stig ate. We have i n i t i a l l y decided upon six dimensions of v ariatio n . Two of these concern variations in the urban problem s that seem on an a p r io ri- basis to be of greatest current importance. 1. The sta te of economic and demographic growth or decline both of a metropolitan area and i t s central c ity . 2. The in ten sity of so cia l problems associated with r a c ia l tension, poverty, slums, and the lik e . The other four dimensions cover variations in presumed c a u ses of prob lems that i n i t i a l ly seem lik e ly to d iffe re n tia te selected urban areas. 273 -3 - 3. The p o lit ic a l structure of the area, including both the structure of ju risd ic tio n s in the metropolitan area and the politica l/b u reau cratic/a d m in istrative structure of the central c ity . 4. Federal spending in the area. 5. Size. 6. Regional location . In addition to this conceptual basis for choice of our sample — the need for planned variations in each of these dimensions — fin a l choice of s p e c ific urban areas w ill necessarily be based in part on certain in s titu tio n a l fa c to rs. o The cooperation and in terest of lo c a l people and o The a b ilit y of lo c a l people and organizations to help. o The a v a ila b ility of data. organizations. In some cases (including San Jose) we may do some survey work of our own, but for the most part we w ill have to depend on existin g data. o o The assistance we can give to lo c a l problem-solving. The p o s s ib ility of building cooperative relationships with lo c a l academic in stitu tio n s. Based on both the conceptual and the in stitu tio n a l grounds for choice, we have decided upon three major urban area analyses, to begin during the f i r s t year of the program. 1. San Jose, where we have already begun the analysis of growth stra te g ie s. 2. S t. Louis, where the analysis w ill focus on problems of neighborhood change and abandonment. S t. Louis d iffe r s su bstan tially from San Jose in most of the dimensions: growth/decline, in ten sity of so cia l problems, p o li t ic a l structure, s iz e , and regional se ttin g . 3. S e a ttle, which can provide a major variation from both San Jose and St. Louis in a key dimension — that of growth and declin e. San Jose has been growing rapidly, but can foresee a slowdown; St. Louis i s w ell past i t s 274 -4 peak growth. S e a ttle, however, may be studied ju s t as i t has peaked out, and analysis of the a rea's adaptation may be of unique importance in understanding urban change. In addition to these three major studies, we expect to begin in the f i r s t year: a r e la tiv e ly low -level planning e ffo r t for a la te r analysis of the fe a s i b i li t y of resid e n tial desegregation in Los Angeles; supplementation of an ongoing Rand project concerning the so c ia l uses of cable TV in Dayton, Ohio; possible small supplementa tion of other proposed Rand work in San Francisco to include a growth analysis p a r a lle l to that being done in San Jose; secondary analysis of the three years of work of the New York City-Rdnd In situ te , to gather m aterial relevant to urban generalization; and in itia tio n of one or more studies of urban problems cutting across the s p e c ific c ity analyses. Three p o s s ib ilit ie s in this la s t category are; examination of the "Two Black S o c ie tie s" and the related "C r is is Ghetto" hypotheses; in vestigation of "th e problems of the a fflu e n t" as exemplified in the f i r s t instance in San Jose; and examination of what current national urban p o lic ie s — e x p lic it and im p licit — are. Of these, the la s t — current national urban p o lic ie s — is most lik e ly to be begun during the f i r s t year of the program. 275 -5 - RAND URBAN POLICY PROGRAM: STRATEGY FOR SELECTION OF CITIES AND FIRST-YEAR PLAN I. INTRODUCTION The integrated la rg e-sc a le program of Urban Policy Analysis proposed by Rand has two o b jec tiv es: to a s s is t lo c a l policymakers in urban areas to understand the lik e ly e ffe c ts of d iffe re n t policy alternatives under their control; and to aid national policymakers in understanding the consequences of the various options that may be included in what i s sometimes called "a national urban p o lic y .11 The consequences of various "n ation al urban p o lic y " options may w ell d iffe r su b stan tially for d ifferen t urban areas; i f so , that in i t s e l f w ill be a major policy finding. To achieve these policy ends, the core of the program w ill be a series of from eight to ten studies of sp e c ific c i t i e s , carried out over a period of three to fiv e years. For each c ity — or more properly, each urban area, since c ity problems can be best understood in metro politan contexts — we w ill concentrate i n i t i a l l y on a broad complex of problems that i s both important in i t s e l f and w ill illum inate the s o c ia l, economic, and p o lit ic a l structure of the area and the e ffe c ts on the area of key policy a lte rn a tiv es, both lo c a l and nation al. Such an i n i t i a l focus i s important to organize data and concepts; i t is not intended to constrain the ultimate scope of the study. The f i r s t o bjectiv e — that of providing lo c a l assistan ce — is s elf-ev id en t in i t s meaning. Local decisionmakers we have talked to have uniformly exhibited a strong in terest in analysis of the in te r mediate and long-run consequences (roughly fiv e to fifte e n years) of their policy choices; almost as uniformly, they lack an in-house cap- a b ilit y to examine the consequences of policy choices. How we intend to go about such lo c a l analysis may be le s s evident and le s s easy to describe than the objective of the a na ly sis, but the companion piece to th is paper, our i n i t i a l report on "A ltern ative Growth Strategies for San Jose" provides an example of our methods. 276 - 6- The other and perhaps more d i f fi c u lt question, however, is how we w i ll s e le c t the eight to ten urban areas we want to examine, and how we hope to generalize to something approaching "n ation al urban p o lic y " from such a lim ited sample. Generalization, properly understood, must be the primary prin cip le for selectio n of urban areas for a na ly sis. The second p rin cip le, almost as important, is a more in stitu tio n a l one: our a b ilit y to carry out a study in a sp e c ific area; and the long- and short-run aid such a study w ill provide to such an area. The la tt e r includes both the immediate assistance that might be contributed by a study of roughly a year’ s duration, and the long-run assistance stemming from the organization of lo c a l — largely academically based — c a p a b ilitie s to continue in the vein we have started. The next section of th is paper discusses our plans for selectin g urban areas for study. I t describes the conceptual basis of selectio n and considers the expected d i f fi c u lt ie s of obtaining usefu l generalization s. I t depicts our strategy for getting around some of these d i f f i c u l t i e s , and then suggests an in stitu tio n a l basis for selectio n . The fin a l section provides more detailed information on our fir s t -y e a r plan — the c it ie s we have selected and why; that may be undertaken. and suggests supplementary studies 277 -7 - II. SELECTION OF URBAN AREAS GENERALIZATION In discussing our o bjective of identifyin g generalizations leading toward a national urban p o lic y , i t i s necessary to make two points about what we do n o t mean. F ir s t, i t i s impossible to obtain s c ie n t ific a lly v a lid s t a t i s t i c a l generalizations from eight to ten urban areas. But even i f the sample were enlarged su b sta n tia lly , we suspect that s t a t i s t i c a l generalization would be meaningless because the number of relevant variables defining structural relationships within urban areas would overwhelm any number of observations. Instead, we propose to in i t i a t e , over a period of years, eight to ten urban analyses, each of s u ffic ie n t depth to id e n tify functional relationships within the subject area — why have things happened as they have, as a guide to what i s lik e ly to happen in the future under various assumptions. I f we can obtain in sights — whether s t a t i s t i c a l or more h eu ristic — into uniform ities in individual and in stitu tio n a l behavior under sp e c ific circumstances, then generalization of a n o n -s ta tis tic a l nature w ill be p o ssib le. This strategy for generalization resembles that used in community studies such as those carried out at Yale ten years ago, which isolated conform ities. * We intend to analyze problems and p o lic ie s within sp e c ific metropolitan areas down to understandable building blocks, and then to restructure these blocks to provide insights into problems and p o lic ie s over a much wider number of areas than those chosen fo r the sample. E ssential to th is e ffo r t is a group of analysts of the sort who have already begun to work together — a group that includes the d iscip lin e s of economics, sociology, mathematics, operations a nalysis, and urban planning. Such a group is needed to construct a conceptual framework with broad a p p lic a b ility across varying types of behavioral relationships as w ell as across d iffe rin g urban areas. Such a group - In p a rticu la r, Robert Dahl, Who G overns? (New Haven: Yale, 1961), and Nelson* Polsby, Community "Power and P o l i t i c a l Theory (New Haven: Y ale, 1963). 278 - 8- can examine relationships within a variety of fie ld s and between these f i e ld s . The second c a v e a t concerning generalization is that our most important finding may well be that simple universal gen eralization s, aggregated to American c itie s as a c la s s , are not very u sefu l. Our hypothesis is that American c it ie s are so diverse in their structu res, problems, and other policy ch aracteristics that any national urban p olicy w ill necessarily a ffe c t them d if fe r e n t ia lly . To the extent th is turns out to be the case, one policy im plication w ill be a need for discriminating urban p o lic ies applied to sp e c ific urban areas as they are, rather than to urban areas as an abstract construct. Even so, however, certain relevant national p o licies w ill necessarily be nationwide in scope ( e . g . , income taxation) and insofar as such p o licies are evaluated in terms of their e ffe c ts on c i t i e s , th is evaluation w ill have to be understood in terms of d iffe r e n tia l e ffe c ts in d iffe rin g urban areas. Thus, i f this hypothesis is v e r ifie d , a generalized national urban policy w ill have to be in part general, and in part fle x ib le enough to apply to particular problems in particular areas. Given these con strain ts, there is a need for planned v a r i a ti o n among types of c itie s selected for study in order to make possible the examination of a major portion of the range of national urban problems and the major e ffe c ts of national p o licies upon these problems. As we see i t now, such a strategy w ill have four key ch a ra c te ristic s: 1. Specification of a f in it e number of dimensions ( e . g . , rate and type of economic change, size of area, regional location) along which our sample should vary; and choice of areas so that we do, in f a c t , have s u ffic ie n t variation in each dimension - - along each a x is. 2. A sequential selection process, whereby analysis of the i n i t i a l set of areas (which have already been chosen, as described below), w ill throw further lig h t on the needed dimensions of v ariatio n , enabling us to make subsequent selections on the basis of informed 279 -9 - judgment rather than speculation. Our i n i t i a l thought, fo r example, has been that we must sample from each of four broad regions — Far West, Midwest, East, and South. But early analysis in St. Louis and Dayton, Ohio, might convince us that the Midwest i s a heterogeneous region needing further d iv isio n . 3. analyses. Two types of supplementation to the eight to ten depth F ir s t, a set of addition al, more lim ited , analyses designed to f i l l gaps in the sample on sp e c ific very Important dimensions, and to bring in additional information economically by "adding on" analyses of our type to other ongoing Rand and non-Rand studies with im plications for s p e c ific urban areas. Rand is currently analyzing the so cia l uses of cable TV in Dayton, fo r example. Some supplementation of the so c ia l analysis there w ill enable us to add to our sample a r e la tiv e ly small Midwestern c ity at low co st. The second type of supplementation would use data from large numbers of (or a l l ) urban areas to obtain b etter sp e cifica tio n of the size and proportions over the United States of d iffe re n t sorts of problems id en tifie d by the depth analyses. One obvious example i s the computation of segregation indices for metro politan areas. 4. F in ally, generalization about problems and p o lic ie s from the three previous steps. I t should be noted, however, that while th is i s la s t in a lo g ic a l sequence, more or le ss tentative generaliza tions w ill be drawn from the very outset of the program. We do not foresee a black box that w ill spring open in three to fiv e years and reveal a l l there i s to be known about national urban p o lic y . Indeed, as i s noted in the companion San Jose paper, our method leads to some very tentative attempts to generalize even from a sample of one. We have ten tativ ely id e n tifie d two dimensions or axes along which we want to vary our sample of urban areas. called a set of output axes. One of these might be These are dimensions of variation in the urban problem s we now perceive to be of greatest current importance. I t i s obvious, of course, that such perceptions are a p r i o r i . This is one reason why we want to use the sequential decisionmaking process 280 - 10 - mentioned above for further choice of areas fo r a n alysis. other set of dimensions may be termed input axes. The These include variation s in conditions that i n i t i a l ly seem lik e ly to oau se d i f ferences among the problems of major urban areas. They may or may not turn out to be causally important (maybe small metropolitan areas rea lly work pretty much the same way as Los Angeles or Chicago, for example), but unless we bring such variations into our selected sample, we w ill never know whether they are important or not. Looking f i r s t at the output axes, we can distinguish i n i t i a l l y two complex sorts of problem v a r ia tio n : the current state of growth or decline for both the metropolitan area and i t s central c it y ; and the in ten sity of the sort of so c ia l problems characterized by r a c ia l cleavage and poverty. These two dimensions are not n ecessarily independent of one another, but since we are not trying to carry out formal s t a t i s t i c a l generalization, non-independence i s lik e ly to help our a n a ly sis. We expecL uui sample of eight to ten urban areas to have clu sters of ch a ra cteristics. I f v ir tu a lly a l l "d ec lin in g " areas have intense s o cia l problems, while rapidly growing areas lack such problems, there would be no need to search for areas where growth and intense so cia l problems go together. Unfortunately, however, important cross-categories in these two dimensions may e x is t: Los Angeles, for example, may represent a metropolitan area that has intense so cia l problems while i t i s far from evidencing the decline shown by some Eastern c i t i e s . Chicago might be another example. 1. Growth/Decline. We are interested in the trends — recent, current, and projectable — of both the economic base and the population s iz e of both an urban area and i t s central c ity . Santa Clara County, whicli is the metropolitan area surrounding the central c ity of San Jose, has at le a st u n til recently experienced very rapid growth inside and outside the central c i t y , although th is may now be changing. In contrast, Seattle and i t s metropolitan area have peaked out and may now be entering a phase of r e la tiv e ly long-run secular decline. Both of these urban areas, however, are d ifferen t from many in the Midwest and 281 -1 1 - East, where decline began some time ago. And even in the East, declining c i t i e s may d iffe r according to whether the central c ity i s on the downgrade but the area is growing and prosperous, as is the case thus far in S t. Louis, or whether the entire area is in a sta te of declin e, as seems to be true of the Pittsburgh area. Important variations may e x ist too in the relationship of the urban core — frequently a poverty area — to the central c ity as a whole. Factors relevant to growth and decline obviously, include the diver s ific a tio n or concentration of the area's economic base as w ell as this history and prospects of key in du stries, particu larly in areas dependent upon only a few in du stries. not explain everything. But economic base alone may Although most demographic theory treats economic variables as independent fa c to r s, with population change consequent upon economic change, there i s some reason to believe at le a st in the so -c a lle d "Sun B e l t ," stretching from California to F lorida, population growth can be expected on a basis somewhat independent of economic support. in vestigation . This hypothesis, of course, requires Another sp e c ific variable that comes into th is growth/ decline complex is the extent of f i s c a l d i f f i c u lt ie s in urban areas, particu larly central c i t i e s . We make th is i n i t i a l l y subordinate here because the state of the public purse seems to depend very heavily both on change of economic base — we have strong evidence in San Jose to bear th is out — and on the c i t y 's own in du strial and population base re la tiv e to i t s metropolitan hinterland. 2. Social Problems. housing, and the lik e . These include ra c ia l tension, poverty, bad The phrase "th e urban c r i s i s " is one that is le ss descriptive than i t might seem; i t is reasonably clear that although many American c it ie s are in c r i s i s , these crise s vary widely. Indeed, that i s one of the hypotheses of th is program. But "urban c r i s i s , " to the extent that i t has meaning, ordinarily brings to mind the s o c ia l problems enumerated above. In San Jose, however, an urban c r is is of this type does not r ea lly e x is t. Poor people, m in orities, bad housing do e x is t, but whether because such problems are truly le ss intense than in many other c i t i e s , because of r e la tiv e d o c ility o f the poor, or for other reasons (making comparisons 282 - 12 - lik e th is w ill ultim ately be an important part of our generalization pro cess), such problems have not turned c r it i c a l in anyone's d e fin itio n . Perhaps such a c r is is li e s in San Josefs future, but not i t s present; one of our early findings has been that so c ia l problems of th is in San Jose seem to be unrelated to the rapid growth that has been the chief phenomenon of the area. This fin d in g, in teresting and important in i t s e l f , also indicates the range of in ten sity of s o c ia l problems in American c i t i e s . In St. Louis, so c ia l problems of th is nature are the major phenomenon. In Newark, in Cleveland, in D etro it, they sometimes seem overwhelming. Concentration on the urban areas at the distressed end of the scale would lead to biased perceptions about urban problems and the e ffe c t of national urban p o lic ie s ; thus some variations must be considered. Social problems are not confined to the lower end of the income and s o cia l sc a les. For example, an interestin g finding from San Jose has been that crime, which in many c it ie s is associated with low income — for victim s as w ell as perpetrators — i s to a great extent a middle class problem in that area. This i s true for victims in San Jose; evidence indicates that is true of criminals too. some It may be that th is w i l l characterize rapidly growing areas of San J ose's type, but on th is point i t is impossible to generalize from a sin gle e x a m p le . In any case, variation along the axis of in ten sity of so cia l problems — those associated with poverty and race and those which may not be so associated — is essen tia l for generalization. The remaining four dimensions we have i n i t i a l ly id e n tifie d are those we c a ll input dimensions. We are not sure that they are asso ciated — causally or otherwise — with important problem or p o lic y related variations among American urban areas, but they may be, and i t i s necessary to find th is out, as a step toward gen eralization . 3. P o litic a l Structure. of d ifferen t c itie s is of two types. Variation among the p o lit ic a l structures One is the relationship of the central c ity or c i t i e s of a Standard Metropolitan S t a t is t ic a l Area to the area as a whole. The most common accepted version i s a large cental 283 -1 3 c ity ringed by suburbs, with the central c ity the dominant focus of the area. But in some urban areas — San Jose is an example — the central c ity i s not dominant; indeed, throughout the West, governmental structure makes counties far more powerful units of government than in most other parts of the country. And in a l l parts of the country — Boston as w ell as Los Angeles — there ex ist urban areas where the central city/suburban pattern does not resemble the typical ring configuration at a l l . Rather, for various h is to r ic a l reasons, municipal ju r isd ic tio n s are mixed with one another and mixed with county ju r isd ic tio n s. In Los Angeles one moves to the suburbs by moving to the San Fernando V alley, which is part of the c ity . In Boston one hardly enters a typ ical suburb by moving to Cambridge. This dimension of variation is also related to the growth/ decline pattern discussed above. A relevant question is whether there ex ist typ ical patterns in the processes of suburban growth. Another variation is found in the p o lit ic a l structure of the central c ity i t s e l f . C ities in the West are typ ica lly governed, at le ast nominally, by non-partisan adm inistrations; in the Midwest and East, administrations of most large c it ie s are elected by party, which makes for major d ifferen ces, at le a st in urban sty le and quite lik e ly in real p o lit ic a l processes. Beyond t h is , there are questions of the strength or weakness of c ity government. Easterners neither understood nor believed him when Mayor Yorty of Los Angeles told a Senate Subcommittee several years ago that he r ea lly did not have the power to do the kinds of things they were asking. Yet Los Angeles — typ ical of most of the West — has a weak Mayor system with much of the power vested in rela tiv e ly independent commissions (appointed by the Mayor, however) and even more of i t under the completely independent ju r isd ic tio n of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. Contrast this to the c ity of New York, where — a ty p ically for American c i t i e s — the c ity admin is tr a tio n controls even the Board of Education. structure is not the only important v ariation . And formal p o li t ic a l Although Los Angeles does have a weak Mayor system, i t is not impossible to conceive of a C alifornia version of Richard Daley, who could put together a p o lit ic a l 284 -1 4 machine that would transcend v ir tu a lly a l l formal ju r isd ic tio n a l bounds. In any case, the c i t i e s selected must vary over a number of these p o lit ic a l dimensions. 4. Federal Spending. Because a major objective of the research program w ill be to analyze the impact of existing federal policy on urban areas as a basis fo r estimating the e ffe c t of future policy v a ria tio n s, the use of the federal purse is obviously cru cia l. On the revenue sid e , although both the quantity of federal tax money and the pattern in which i t is taken out of an area are both important, at le a st there is a necessarily uniform p o lic y . This is not so for spending. Urban areas vary su b stan tially according to the share of federal m ilita ry expenditures they a ttr a c t, and in the case of San Jose the variation of these expendi tures over time seems to be a crucial factor affectin g change. The same may be true for S e a ttle , although i t should be noted that i t was a decline in c iv ilia n a ir c r a ft production at Boeing that h it S e a ttle ’ s economy, not a change in m ilitary spending. On the c i v i l expenditure sid e , geographic variation in the federal impact is lik e ly to be le s s , simply because discretionary federal c i v i l expenditures are smaller than m ilitary expenditures (by "discretio n ary" is meant federal expenditures net of major items lik e so c ia l security, which are distributed auto m atically ju s t as taxes are collected autom atically). Nonetheless, i t w ill be necessary to examine c i v i l expenditures, particu larly in the s o cia l f i e ld s , as they go d iffe r e n tia lly to various urban areas. One hypothesis may be, "them that has, g e t s ," because the "haves" seem to possess, among other things, better pipelines into Washington. 5. S iz e . c i t i e s studied. Another obvious dimension to be varied is the s iz e of While i t seems unlikely that we w ill analyze a c ity as big or complex as New York (p articu larly since, as noted below, we have other ways to get data and analyses from New York to add to our g en era liza tio n s), we propose to consider American c it ie s of other s iz e s . boundry; A central c ity population of 100,000 may w ell be a lower the upper boundary i s lik e ly to be Los Angeles and/or Chicago. 285 "156. Location. F in ally, we must know to what degree generaliza tions are lik e ly to hold for urban areas in d iffe re n t regions of the United States. Regional variation has been implied in the above discussion, for example, where p o li t ic a l structure has been mentioned. We have started on the West Coast and propose to move to the Midwest in the near future. Our sample w ill include urban areas in both the East and the South. H isto ric a l and cu ltu ral variations — and quite possibly climate — seem lik e ly to make fo r important d ifferen ces. The o bjective w ill be to choose eight to ten urban areas fo r analysis so that various points within the relevant ranges of variation on each o f these six axes are represented. For each dimension, i t w ill be important to have at le a st one area representing a "moderately extreme" value fo r each end of that axis ( e . g . , not New York, but Los Angeles, Chicago, and/or Philadelphia). also be important to For each dimension, i t w ill have reasonable representation of intermediate p oin ts. This means, then, that we need growing and declining urban areas and central c i t i e s , and c i t i e s in d iffe re n t stages of growth; need c itie s with old industries and with new ones; severe so cia l problems and without such problems; we need urban areas with central c ity dominance and with more diffused power; c it ie s with both strong and weak central governance; with d ifferen t le ve ls of federal spending; and sm all; we we need c it ie s with we need we need c i t i e s we need large c i t i e s ' we need c it ie s in the East and South as well as in the Midwest and West. Even with eight to ten c i t i e s , providing eight to ten points on each a x is, we w ill be nowhere near the order of magnitude that would be needed for s t a t i s t i c a l induction, but should be able to iden tify the range of variations in the relevant dimensions. How well the ranges are represented w ill ultim ately depend le ss on the number and nature o f sample points chosen than on the depth of analysis we can bring to each sample urban area. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --1 9 286 -1 6 Indeed, given th is kind of a n a ly sis, i t may be possible to begin to generalize — very ten tativ ely — even from a sample of one. Our San Jose/Santa Clara County study, fo r example, has begun to indicate quite strongly that Federal and sta te policy put together leave remarkably l i t t l e space for lo c a l decisionmakers to a ffe c t lo c a l fu tu res. On the Federal sid e, p o lic ie s not ordinarily thought of as "urban" have major, perhaps even overwhelming impact, The cause of San J ose 's rapid growth in the la s t two decades has been the m ilitary procurement which has b u ilt up San Jose industries and turned i t into both a major electron ics center and a heavily populated area. Federal tax policy tends to encourage land speculation, which has made lo c a l control even more d iffic u lt. And sta te policy has constrained the devices with which lo c a l decisionmakers could deal with the e ffe c ts of growth and specula tio n . This is detailed in the companion San Jose report. Although no generalization about the national e ffe c ts of Federal or sta te constraints can be b u ilt on th is one case, i t suggests important issu es tc be in v e sti gated intensively in our other urban studies with a view toward general iza tio n . I f we can pinpoint why Federal p o lic ie s of th is type have affected San Jose th is way, and how and why they a ffe c t other c i t i e s that d iffe r from San Jose in the various dimensions, we may be able to say a great deal about the e ffe c ts of such national p o lic ie s on d ifferen t sorts of c i t i e s and the e ffe c ts changes in these p o lic ie s might ultim ately have. The basis described here in selecting urban areas for depth analysis i s s t i l l very general indeed. Using ideas lik e these,however, (together with more in stitu tio n a l and mundane considerations of our a b ilit y to mount studies in particular areas and the long-run payoff from such stu d ie s), we have chosen our f i r s t areas, as discussed below. Each new s i t e chosen w ill be influenced by our past insights and a n a ly sis. Our understanding of these dimensions and problems i s s t i l l imperfect — far too imperfect to permit laying out a complete ana ly tica l program at th is time. Indeed, the imperfection of our understanding is the reason 287 -1 7 - that we want to carry out th is program in the f i r s t place. However, we do have some a p r i o r i perceptions about the kinds of urban problems that e x ist and their in te n sity , perceptions that lead us to b elieve that analysis of this sort can be important and u sefu l. These same perceptions have enabled us to c la s s ify urban areas and set up our i n i t i a l dimensions. As we develop our analyses, however, new under standing may well lead us to want to a lte r the dimensions. We have started one analysis — of San Jose and Santa Clara County — and have proposed another — S e a ttle , — largely because of i t s known and important variations from San Jose along the particular axis of growth and decline — the f i r s t example of th is sequential choice. In addition, we proposed to study a c ity that i s quite d iffe re n t from either San Jose or S eattle — S t. Louis — to begin a sequence on another b asis from that started with San Jose, although these sequences must necessarily interact at la te r stages. These choices are discussed in more d e ta il in Part I I I . Beyond these i n i t i a l analyses, the next set of se le c tio n s, beginning toward the end of the f i r s t year of the program, w ill 'depend very heavily on the problems illuminated by the f i r s t s e t. We know that we w ill need more regional v ariatio n , a beginning in the East and the South, and more in the Midwest. Philadelphia, or Worcester or Trenton; or Charlotte; But whether to go to Boston, to A tlan ta, Birmingham, Houston to Cleveland, D etroit or Peoria — w ill depend on what we learn in San Jose, S e a ttle, and St. Louis. Whether to include Toronto as a control — a large U .S .-s t y le English-speaking c ity lacking ra c ia l tensions — a p o s s ib ility suggested in our July proposal, w ill be determined by the resu lts of our i n i t i a l analysis. In any case, our basis for generalization w ill not stem from the eight to ten depth analyses alone. Rather, these w ill be supplemented by two additional portions of our research strategy. One of these is a set of le s s expensive p a rtia l analyses in a number of areas where for various reasons such analyses would appear to have a high payoff r e la tiv e to their 288 -1 8 c o s ts . In Dayton, Ohio, Rand is doing substantial so cia l analysis in con nection with the study of the e ffe c ts of cable te le v isio n ; expanding the so cia l portion qf th is research i s lik e ly to give us an extra fu ll-blow n sample point at very low cost. Dayton seems lik e ly to provide a sample point some distance from our i n i t i a l ones along a number of axes. Given our i n i t i a l emphasis on the West Coast, San Francisco would not be so interesting per se. Nonetheless, the p o s s ib ilit y of other relevant Rand work in San Francisco may w ell make a small addition of e ffo r t there p r o fita b le . In addition to these two, the New York City-Rand In stitu te has, in the past three years, generated a wide variety of analyses, some of which — a study of housing abandon ment, development of neighborhood observation techniques, an analysis of population movement and job location — are d ir e c tly relevant to the themes with which our depth analyses are concerned. Such existing and prospective New York analyses w ill provide an additional sample point for out generalization — a sample point in a c ity that i s too large for us to handle in depth were we to sta r t from scratch. These three are examples of supplementary analyses representing targets of opportunity — permitting us to enrich our basis fo r generalization with r e la tiv e ly small additional e ffo r t and c o st. In subsequent stages o f our research program, we expect to mount another sort of supplementary a n alysis. Where our ongoing studies show s p e c ific gaps in important dimensions of v aria tio n , we may mount narrower studies of sp e c ific phenomena in urban areas where these gaps can be f i l l e d . I f , fo r example, analyses of race relation s indicate two polar types of areas among those covered, but we know that intermediate urban areas ex ist and we want sp e c ific information about such intermediate areas, s p e c ific narrower and le ss expensive analyses may be undertaken in these areas. And f i n a lly , as a supplement to the eight to ten w hole-city analyses, we w ill expect to use more aggregated data from census and other sources to obtain some idea of proportions. We may know the difference between San Jose and Dayton, between S eattle and 289 -1 9 - S t. Louis — but for purposes of generalization, we also must know what proportion of American urban areas are represented by a San Jose or a S e attle, what proportion by a Dayton or a St. Louis. To conclude, we are aiming for a combination of planned variation and depth analysis as exemplified by our i n i t i a l report on San Jose. We are not anticipating universal generalizations where i t can be said that, "This is true of American c i t i e s . " I t i s more lik e ly that our generalizations w ill refer to d iffe r e n tia l impact of sp e c ific p o lic ie s on s p e c ific problems in varied c i t i e s ; variation along the several axes. that is why we emphasize Thus, our generalizations must depend upon structured judgment of the type outlined above. INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS IN CHOICE OF CITIES In addition to providing a b asis fo r generalization , our choice of urban areas for analyses must also depend heavily on in stitu tio n a l considerations; our a b ilit y to do analyses in a sp e c ific area ( e . g . , the a v a ila b ility of lo cal cooperation and of data); the lo c a l payoffs, both long- and short-run, from the analyses; to use other Rand work relevant to the area. and our a b ilit y Wherever there i s rea l c o n flic t between the c r ite r ia for generalization and the in stitu tio n a l c r ite r ia for choice, generalization w ill have to receive f i r s t con sideration . For example, we are not going to stay out of the South because analyses might be more d i f f i c u lt there. Nonetheless, the a b ilit y to do analyses is quite important. This w ill depend on a number of considerations: 1, The cooperation and in terest of lo c a l people and organizations. Cooperation of lo c a l o f f i c i a l s w ill not s u ffic e alone. Private i n s t i tu tion s, such as banks, which are frequently sources of esse n tia l data, minority organizations and community action groups, and academic in s titu tio n s , must a l l be so lic ite d for cooperation. Thus fa r , we have been fortunate in our i n i t i a l choice of areas, in that such cooperation seems to be forthcoming with l i t t l e d i f fi c u lt y . Appendix 1) (See Indeed, the assurance of such cooperation was a major reason for the i n i t i a l choice of San Jose. 290 - 2. Informed A ssistan ce. 20 - Cooperation must not only be forthcoming: i t must be informed cooperation. In San Jose, c ity and county o f f i c i a l s at a l l levels have an excellent reputation for competence and we had l i t t l e worry on th is score. What was perhaps more surprising, however, i s that in S t. Louis, which has a reputation as an "o ld lin e " c ity , the a b ilit y of lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and private individuals was also g ra tify in g ly high. This may not be the case everywhere, however. 3. Data. As our San Jose report shows, the methods we use depend heavily on the gathering, reduction, and analysis of quantita tiv e data. Rand has extraordinary ca p a b ilitie s fo r handling and organizing large quantities of data, and we expect in each case to make use of these fa c ilitie s . For each urban area we enter, we w ill make intensive in v e sti gation of sources and a v a ila b ility of data ranging across economic, demo graphic, p o li t ic a l, and a ttitu d in a l categories. come from a number of sources. Such data ordinarily The 1970 census, becoming available at an ideal time for th is research program, covers a l l urban areas. using the census is neither simple nor t r i v i a l . But The Rand computing f a c i li t y has put substantial e ffo r t into organizing a capability to use census data. Appendix 2A contains a description of Rand's approach to census data. Beyond the census, however, much of the s t a t i s t i c a l m aterial to be used comes from other fe d e ra l, sta te , lo c a l and private sources. I t i s necessary to integrate such s t a t i s t i c a l series on matters lik e employment, ethnic d istrib u tio n by area and school d i s t r i c t , land use, economic projection, p o li t ic a l behavior and attitu des with one another and with the census data. Appendices 2B and C contain our i n i t i a l approach to simple id e n tific a tio n of such data for the nation and for C aliforn ia. Beyond id e n tific a tio n , of course, u t iliz a t io n requires some degree of s t a t i s t i c a l soph istication . Our San Jose report again provides an example here. In many cases, however, existin g data series w ill not s u ffic e . In particu lar, an important phase of many studies concerns public a ttitu d e s. A ttitu din al surveys ex ist in large numbers for many areas, of course, but frequently their quality is not high. In San Jose, for example, public a ttitu des toward "urban sprawl" are important, 291 - 21- and at le a st one existing survey touches on th is . But the survey is d e fic ien t, and we expect to mount a small e ffo r t of our own, both to pin down these attitudes in differen t population groups, and to obtain other information, concerning in particular past and prospective m obility of people in San Jose. 4. Assistance to Local Problem Solving. The other major in s titu tion al question concerning selectio n of urban areas, in addition to our capability to mount a study in such an area, concerns the lo c a l payoffs from such a study. These may be of two types. One is our d irect help to lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and private citize n s on lo c a l problems. This w i l l, of course, be proportional to the quality of the analysis we provide and to the in terest of lo c a l people in i t . Our method of operation has been, and w ill continue to be, to work clo sely with lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and to respond to their needs in ways which f i t w ell with our overa ll c a p a b ilitie s . These c a p a b ilitie s under th is program are not primarily for rapid-response operational research; although the New York City-Rand In stitu te provides some assistance of that type, this ic not Rand’ s ordinary contribution, nor is i t proposed here. Rather, we w i l l work with lo c a l o f f i c i a l s on operational aspects of the basic problems with which this program i s concerned. One example is the c ity of San J ose's desire to obtain long-run cost estimates for the public services which w ill be committed when new housing tracts are opened; because our central concern in San Jose i s with problems of growth, th is operational aspect is closely aligned with our g oals. Sim ilarly in S e a ttle , as part of our project to examine the constraints put on S e a ttle ’ s future by i t s current economic d is tr e s s , we w ill be working both with a current city government project on "go als for S e a t t le ," and with the University of Washington on their e ffo r t to id entify economic recovery options for the area. For th is sort of participation with lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and in stitu tio n s in searching for solutions to problems of common in te r e st, the kind of funding we have been receiving from the National Science Foundation, which allows us to be responsive to lo c a l in te re sts without being respon sible to them, i s very appropriate. As important as our immediate assistance is the question of what we leave behind us. In each of these cases we are talking about an urban 292 -2 2 - area study lastin g roughly one year, and in few or none of them do we expect to remain in the area in stitu tio n a lly on any continuing basis * We w i ll work with lo c a l people and in stitu tio n s much beyond one year. and try to leave behind not only a deeper understanding of lo c a l pro blems and a set of policy options, but also a continuing a b ilit y to carry out required a n alysis. This w ill mean special e ffo r t on our part and also development of a lo c a l capability to absorb our techniques and approaches. We are, in f a c t , talking about two kinds of lo c a l c ap ab ility, not one. One of these is the building of a methodological capability within public in stitu tio n s. As noted above, both the c ity of San Jose and Santa Clara County have the a b ility to carry out some ana ly tica l work. The same is lik e ly to be true in St. Louis and S e a ttle , other c it ie s we have approached seriously for our f i r s t phase. 5. University R elationships. Perhaps even more interesting and more important than developing a public capability to continue th is sort of analyses, however, is the exploiting of private in stitu tio n a l a b i li t i e s . These are found primarily -in lo c a l academic in s titu tio n s , and we have been making special e ffo r ts to involve these in stitu tio n s in each area we have entered or intend to enter. We have found that lo c a l u n iversities are anxious to provide policy assistan ce, particu la rly on the sort of urban problems in which we are most in terested , but are frequently not w ell organized to do so. experience can be an important cata lyst here. Rand’ s policy To take the three major examples on which we have begun: a. In San Jose/Santa Clara County, Professor Benton Massell of Stanford (Palo Alto is in northern Santa Clara County) has begun to work with the County, particu larly on problems of lo c a l assessment practices and of supply and demand for housing. We, in turn, have been working with Massell — who was Director of the NSF-funded Summer In New York C ity, of course, the New York City-Rand In stitu te which antedates this program is a continuing in stitu tio n . Such in stitu te s have been discussed in one or two other c i t i e s , although such discussions have not been d irectly connected with the program ‘described here. Any place such an in s titu te is set up in p a ra lle l we w i l l , of course, try to take advantage of i t s existence, but such a continuing in stitu tio n a lize d program is quite d iffe re n t from that discussed here. 293 -2 3 - In stitu te for College and University Teachers in Urban Economics at Stanford, and i s a ffi lia t e d with the Stanford In stitu te of Public Policy Analysis — not merely to bring him into our e ffo r t as an individual, but also to in stitu tio n a liz e h is relationship on a continuing b asis. future. This e ffo r t seems lik e ly to bear fr u it in the near In addition, in th is area, the principal investigator on th is proposal w ill become a V isitin g Professor of Public Policy on the faculty of the Stanford Business School for two days a week, beginning in January 1972. This double connection with Stanford is the beginning of our adaptation to lo c a l needs in that area. b. In S e attle, the In stitu te for Government Research at the University of Washington has received a Ford Foundation grant to provide immediate assistance to lo c a l public o f f i c i a l s , particularly in analysis related to economic recovery. We worked with the In stitu te on their grant proposal, and since the grant was received we have been working with Llieai uu Llieil program. In a general sense they arc working on the short-run; we in our own program expect to work on the intermediate to long-run. These d iffe re n t time frames cannot be divorced, however, and we expect to continue the kind cff feedback mechanism that we have already begun, with the ultimate objective of enabling the In stitu te a fter a year to carry on the kind of work we have in itia te d , as w ell as the kind they have begun. c. In S t. Louis, the situ ation d iffe r s because a number of lo c a l u n iversities have excellent but d iffe rin g c a p a b ilitie s. These can be characterized in a general way by saying that the Washington University In stitu te for Urban and Regional Studies i s "conceptual" and national in i t s in terests — a broad "n a tio n a l" research center p a r a lle l in a way to Harvard and Yale Law Schools as "n a tio n a l" law schools. St. Louis U niversity, on the other hand, is equally capable, le ss conceptual, and closer to lo cal problems. We have begun discussions with both of these in s titu tio n s, and intend in the near future to approach the third of St. L o u is's f i r s t -r a t e u n iv e rsitie s, the University of Missouri 294 -2 4 - at St. Louis. The academics we have talked with have expressed a desire to get together with each other and with us on urban research — and lo c a l o f f i c i a l s and foundations have expressed support fo r these in it ia t iv e s . The general feelin g is that Rand, as an outside ca ta ly st, w ill be extremely usefu l in bringing together the group which could, in the future, provide much assistance to policymakers in the S t. Louis area. In each case, we have been trying to build long-run university-based c ap ab ilitie s for the kind of policy analyses we have been carrying out in our program. The c a p a b ilitie s now ex ist in embryo; the problem in each area is to bring such embryos through periods of gestation and create in s titu tio n a l c a p a b ilitie s adapted to the particular areas. 6. Other Rand Work. The fin a l in stitu tio n a l question concerned with choice of urban areas is the feedback possible from other ongoing Rand work. The primary example — our hope to build on the work of the New York City-Rand In stitu te — has already been mentioned. The In stitu te is and must be primarily c lie n t-o r ie n te d , and has l i t t l e time to ask i t s e l f general questions concerning common themes that jo in the various stu dies. In this case, and in others discussed below ( e . g . , Dayton and San Francisco), we have hopes, as part of this program, to enrich Rand c a p a b ilitie s to build on immediate c lien t-o rien ted studies to answer more general questions. Ordinarily, such study enrichment w ill not form the basis for the i n i t i a l choice of a c ity in our sample of eight to ten, but rather supplement the sample, as described above. A bibliography of other Rand urban work is included as Appendix 3. 295 -2 5 - III. FIRST-YEAR PLAN The previous sections have outlined our general strategy for choice of urban areas for analyses and our expectations regarding policy generalization from such analyses. We have pointed out that because we are talking about a program continuing over a number of years and because we expect to apply lessons learned from ea rlier studies to the making of la te r choices, we cannot now lay out in d e ta il the sp e c ific resu lts of th is strategy for choice. We have, however, determined on the steps which w ill be begun in the f i r s t year of the program. These choices and the reasons for making them are both important in themselves and w ill help illum inate the overall strategy. Major Studies Our program w ill begin with three major urban analyses we expect to sta r t in the l i i a l yeai — iii Che metropolitan areas of San vJosG, St. Louis, and S e attle. 1. Our i n i t i a l study of the San Jose urban area was begun 1 July under a planning grant from the National Science Foundation. The reason for startin g in San Jose was primarily in s titu tio n a l. At about the time we began to plan th is program of urban analysis and to lay out the methodologies associated with i t , San Jose City Manager Thomas Fletcher came to Rand to ask us to consider investigating a problem with which he was very much seized , that of growth in the San Jose area. Rapid growth had dominated the area fo r two decades, and City Manager Fletcher wanted analysis of stra te gie s he could use to control th is growth. We were interested in carrying out the analysis for a number of reasons. The f i r s t and most obvious one was that we were approached at the right time, when we were looking for areas to which to apply this new program. In addition, Fletcher’ s problem, although not the f i r s t item that would come to one’ s mind under the rubric "urban c r i s i s , " seemed representative of a class of major urban problems too frequently ignored. Yet in a sense, i t was a "good" problem — one on which we could develop our methodology in a way that would be 296 -2 6 - re la tiv e ly free from the pressures associated with the acute problems of many American c i t i e s . I t would enable us to get a feelin g for how to work in these areas and to tool up for more d i f f i c u lt e ffo r ts that would ultim ately dominate our program simply because such problems aw dominate the American urban scene. In addition to th is reason for choice, San Jose and Santa Clara County have had an excellent reputation for top-notch administration. The recent choice of Fletcher as City Manager confirmed t h is , but i t has long been f e l t to be generally true. Furthermore, and not unconnected with the administrative reputation, excellent data have been known to be available for that area. F in a lly , San Jose was near enough to Santa Monica for us to be able to begin there with r e la tiv e ease. The San Jose study is somewhat le s s than one-third through at present. It is reported on in A lt e r n a t i v e Growth S t r a t e g ie s f o r San J o se : A n a ly sis P r o j e c t 3 2. The I n i t i a l R ep ort o f th e Rand Urban the companion piece to this study. The second study w ill be of neighborhood change and abandon ment in St. Louis. As noted above, we knew that San Jose was sp e c ia l, r e la tiv e ly easy, and not typ ical of the "urban c r i s i s " (although i t should also be noted that i f enough c it ie s are a ty p ical, th is would raise a question about the meaning of the "urban c r i s i s " ) . Having started on San Jose, we wanted a very d iffe re n t problem area, one more nearly r eflec tin g the conventional cross-sectio n of urban problems. S t. Louis is almost a polar opposite of San Jose on our two major problem axes discussed above. San Jose has been growing rap id ly, the c ity of St. Louis has been declining. San Jose has "s o c ia l problems" in the conventional sense only in a minor way — i t has roughly a 12% Mexican-American minority and, as noted in our San Jose report, the neighborhoods characterized by the greatest minority and poverty problems appear almost untouched by the central change phenomenon of the c ity . I t i s important to specify that i t is the c ity that has been declining; the metropolitan area had a very small net in-m igration in the 1960-70 decade. This is a major reason why we chose St. Louis as the focus of a study of neighborhood abandonment; we wanted to look at such abandonment i n i t i a l ly primarily as a so cia l phenomenon, abstracting from the problems of economic decline of the whole area, which we w ill get into at a la ter stage. 297 -2 7 - The urban core of St. Louis is dominated by neighborhood change, ra c ia l tension, poverty, and related so cia l problems. In addition, S t. Louis w ill move us out of the Far West and into a new region as well as a new and acute cla ss of problems. We wanted to consider the kind of acute problems characterized by neighborhood change and abandonment in St. Louis. not the only c ity with such problems: to Newark, to D etroit. But St. Louis is we could have gone to Cleveland, Why St. Louis in particular? The answer to th is is to be found in the in stitu tio n a l basis for choice as w ell as * the need for sampling gen eralization . The St. Louis Standard Metropolitan S t a tis t ic a l Area i s esse n tia lly self-con tain ed and the c ity can expect to have continuity in government, at le a s t for a while. In addition, on the in stitu tio n a l le v e l, St. Louis has people in both the c ity government and academic in stitu tio n s with whom we can work, as noted above. On th is b a sis, we v is ite d St. Louis, discussed the p o s s ib ilit y of such a study with public o f f i c i a l s , academics, and others. The v i s i t convinced us that St. Louis provided a combination of important problems very d ifferen t from the ones we had encountered in San Jose, and c a p a b ilitie s to carry out a study that would be useful both at lo c a l and national le v e ls , with strong p o s s ib ili t i e s , beyond the study i t s e l f , of helping the c ity with the creation of an enduring in s titu tio n a l cap ab ility. 3. S e a ttle. The third area we expect to include early in the program is I f San Jose was chosen largely for in stitu tio n a l reasons, and St.. Louis largely because of the nature of i t s problems and as a planned variation in our overall program, Seattle was chosen fo r a combination of reasons of both so rts. I t marks our f i r s t application of sequential selection to the choice of areas for an alysis. At the very Ultim ately, we may well want to carry out an analysis for Cleveland, among other reasons as a comparison with St. Louis, but Cleveland i s about to undergo a change of c ity administration, making th is a bad time to begin a study. Newark is part of the New York City urban area and i s more d i f f i c u lt to study alone for that reason; one hope is that under th is program we can extend the focus of the New York City-Rand In stitu te into parts of the metropolitan area beyond the c ity to which they are primarily responsible. 298 - 28- beginning of our San Jose study, the central problem that emerged was that the c ity and i t s metropolitan area were heavily dependent economically upon a'rapid rate of growth, a rate that could not possibly continue in d e fin ite ly and, indeed, seemed to be slowing down (th is is detailed in the i n i t i a l report on San J o s e ). A major policy im plication for San Jose is that i t should be thinking hard about adapting to the slowdown in growth. growth sequence. S eattle apparently marks another stage in th is S eattle is in the throes of adapting to a sudden turn down without having been prepared for i t . We believe that this process is an extremely important one in American c i t i e s . Many Midwestern and Eastern c itie s have long since gone through th is "peaking out” and have eith er been rev ita lized or are s t i l l in the throes of adaptation; Jose is a city that may be reaching this peak; Seattle is one that it seems possible for us to capture in the tra n sition a l s ta te . a very important sample point. San This can be In addition, S e a ttle ’ s problems of attempting to recover economically and to adapt to the current recession are important ones in their own rig h t. Added to t h is , again, are the in stitu tio n a l fa c to r s. There is a marked degree of cap ability and in terest in the governments of both the c ity of Seattle and of King County. The c it y , in addition to strug gling with the economic recovery problem, as is every ju risd ic tio n in the Puget Sound area, is carrying out a project to determine "g o a ls’1 for S e a ttle , and for this reason has been interested in our delineating an a ly tica lly a series of alternative futures for Seattle to mesh with their goals e f fo r t . In addition, as noted above, the University of Washington's In stitu te for Governmental Research is carrying on a c tiv itie s which would be p a ra llel t o , but differen t from ours, and we have established excellent working relationships with the U niversity. These in stitu tio n a l reasons confirm those factors which can make S eattle an important sample point for our program and have, th erefore, led us to direct our e ffo r ts toward th is area. 299 -2 9 - Supplementary Studies In addition to these three major "w h o le-city " analyses, a number of supplementary e ffo r ts beginning in the f i r s t year of the program are also proposed. 1. We w ill begin a r e la tiv e ly low -level planning e ffo r t for a subsequent study concerning the p o s s ib ilit ie s of resid en tial desegre gation in Los Angeles. Here, the i n i t i a l considerations for doing th is are in s titu tio n a l. F irst of a l l , Rand is located in the Los Angeles area, and we fe e l that a major long-run a nalytical e ffo r t to examine policy problems in American c itie s should not leave out a major urban area of th is nature with which we must be directly concerned. Second, a number of important opportunities ex ist for cooperation with other ongoing work in in stitu tio n s in the Los Angeles area. An existing RANN grant is funding LosAngeles Technical Services to id en tify needed an alytical work in the Los Angeles area and existing and needed data sources. The LATS grant has not produced any analyses; not intended to. i t was But Rand a na ly tica l work, in cooperation with LATS, can have a major payoff for both grants. The LATS1 role in th is would be to identify data, a s s is t with analyses, and to aid the study by using i t s excellent working relationship with the city government of Los Angeles. In addition, the Metropolitan Applied Research Center, a national group headed by Professor Kenneth Clark, has been interested in beginning some an a ly tica l work on the West Coast. Professor Clark, Professor Hylan Lewis, and others associated with MARC have been quite interested in our desegretation study design and are anxious to work with us on i t . They have already provided one researcher to work with Rand, both as training for him and to a s s is t the study in taking o f f . Beyond th is , MARC can be expected to aid with both a n alytical capability and access to the Los Angeles black community — access which is obviously needed in any kind of desegregation study. And f i n a lly , we 300 -3 0 have been carrying on discussions with The United Way, Los Angeles' Community Chest c o a litio n , which is interested in commencing a community planning e f fo r t , to which we might be of major assistan ce. A third related reason for looking seriously at Los Angeles is that other relevant Rand work is being carried on here. Just being completed is an HEW-sponsored study of p o s s ib ilit ie s fo r desegregation of the Los Angeles schools. This is being done on an austere b a sis, and is con cerned primarily with r a c ia l mixes and bussing times. A study of resid en tial desegregation p o s s ib ilit ie s in Los Angeles such as we have proposed, could build upon and enrich th is , investigating the in te r actions between segregation/desegregation processes in schools and residences, and looking across the many so cia l and p o lit ic a l factors that rea lly determine whether and what kinds of desegregation are workable. In addition, Los Angeles, even though i t would be our third West Coast c ity , can be important to our mode of generalization. Looking at various of the axes for variation discussed above, Los Angeles might be considered: - a bigger "San Jose" - with serious growth decisions in i t s future - a more d iv ersified "S e a t tle " - seriously affected by federal funding decisions a more open "S t . Louis" - from an in stitu tio n a l standpoint This la s t is quite important. Race is one of the two central problems we need to examine in American c i t i e s . And Los Angeles is a c ity with major racial problems — not, perhaps, to the degree found in St. Louis, but s t i l l major. and Mexican-Americans. Los Angeles has two large m in orities, blacks I t is quite segregated by most c r it e r ia . Yet the city of Los Angeles and the metropolitan area seem to be s o c ia lly "open" in approaching problems as compared to many other American c i t i e s , probably including St. Louis. Although much of the Los Angeles 301 -3 1 - population — both white and black — originated in the South or other primarily rural areas, the c ity i s imbued with both a degree of West Coast liberalism and some of the fro n tier type optimism that s t i l l exists in the West eighty years a fter the fro n tier closed. In addition, race in Los Angeles is not associated with f i s c a l problems of the sort found elsewhere. Things seem p o ssib le. I f there is hope for real desegregation, i t may sta rt in the West rather than St. Louis, Cleveland, Newark, or even New York, which is generally considered the most lib e r a l of American c i t i e s . (An altern ative th e sis, however, i s that in fa ct desegregation would be more d i f f i c u lt in Los Angeles because the c ity is dominated by a "sm all -town" ethos. We intend to use voting and a ttitu d in a l data to examine such hypotheses.) In any case, i t is possible that Los Angeles may provide the key to under standing and solution of the crucial national problems centered on ra c ia l segregation and discrim ination. xevex ouuuy i- - _ LO uc a ------- - j------ j bLdi. L lu w u lu We intend th is i n i t i a l low ___ j. j_ina jl ng, uUu. W ithal, we want to begin looking at Los Angeles at a low le v e l of e ffo r t: because three major studies in the f i r s t year are a l l we want to commit ourselves to at a time of build-up; because Los Angeles is bigger and more complex than any other c ity we have proposed to study. (As noted, we do not propose to do th is set of analyses in New York; Chicago is lik e ly to depend sequentially upon the outcome in Los Angeles.) In addition, we want to go slowly on Los Angeles because i t is on the West Coast lik e San Jose and S e a ttle, and we want to make a iuajor commitment in the East. 2. An additional project w ill supplement on-going Rand research in Dayton, Ohio. The Rand communications research program is conduct ing an analysis of the uses of cable TV, with particular emphasis on i t s use as a medium for various sorts of community a c t i v i t i e s . Dayton i s the sample point which has been chosen for this study, and because of the nature of the study — stressing so cia l rather than technical aspects of cable TV — a p a rtia l analysis of the so cia l structure of Dayton i s ’ included in the study. Among other c h a ra c teristic s, Dayton o ffe r s the unique opportunity to compare ecological indices of urban 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 -- 2 0 302 -3 2 - change with a ttitu d e changes among lo c a l residen ts. A recent survey of Dayton area residents has already shown that v ir tu a lly no people, i f given the choice, would want to move from the suburbs to the central c ity . Such a preference i s not surprising in view of the p o ten tia lly serious so cia l problems in Dayton, and in lig h t of the recent and sig n ifica n t population decline in the central c ity . But what i s fascinating is the opportunity to study, through subsequent surveys, how such resid e n tial attitudes may be both causes and e ffe c ts of urban change. Moreover, in the context of our group of c i t i e s , Dayton serves as a good sample point. I t is a Midwestern c ity much smaller than St. Louis, but with many sim ilar c h aracteristics. In addition, while i t is far differen t from a c ity lik e San Jose, i t s economy shares some of the m ilitary bases (a very large Air Force in s ta lla tio n , Wright-Patterson AFB, is ju s t outside Dayton), and the c ity varies on a number but not a l l of the axes discussed above. 3. Another p o s s ib ility is that under other auspices Rand may begin work in San Francisco which w i ll ultim ately be sim ilar to what is being done in New York City. One aspect of Rand’ s proposal for San Francisco has been a look at change and growth in much the same manner as we have been analyzing i t in San Jose. San Francisco, unlike San Jose, is constrained — v ir tu a lly any growth w ill have to be upward — and whether th is growth should be encouraged is a major problem for lo c a l policymakers. Because of our i n i t i a l concentration on the West Coast, we would not ordinarily contemplate mounting an additional study in San Francisco, but i f the other Rand work there m aterializes, we intend to in vestigate the p o s s ib ility of a high payoff from a small additional expenditure. 4. More firm and more important, however, is an additional study that w ill begin to gather relevant experience from the New York C ityRand In s titu te . New York City and the New York metropolitan area are far too big to be the scene of whole-city analyses lik e those in San Jose and St. Louis. But the New York City-Rand In stitu te has been carrying out both sp e c ific operational and general stu dies, many 303 -3 3 - of which are relevant to our in te re sts. These include studies o f: - Housing abandonment - Fire alarm rates as an indicator of neighborhood change - Development of participant-observer techniques in the analysis - Job location and population movement in the New York metropolitan of neighborhood change area and their relation to one another - Causes of the increase i f welfare caseloads Thus far these have not been collected or brought into focus within a sin gle frame of reference. Our intention i s to do this to see whether we can d i s t i l l from the New York studies generalizations about growth and decline in New York, about so cia l problems in New York, and about other related problems that are p a r a lle l to the structural and policy inferences that w ill stem from our w hole-city stu dies. I t is not yet clear to what extent such conclusions or hypotheses about New York w ill be an aid to our overall generalizations; g en e r is . New York is su i But New York is also at one polar end of many of our axes of in te re st, and generalization w ill be firmer i f th is pole can be included at modest expense, rather than by treating New York as an extrapolation — as a big Los Angeles or Chicago. 5. In addition to studies of sp e c ific c i t i e s , our July proposal included substantial discussion of a number of possible cross-cuttin g studies that we hoped we would ultim ately undertake. These would be studies of particular aspects of urban l i f e and policy that drew upon data and observations from a number of c i t i e s . I t i s unlikely that we w ill proceed with any of these u n til we have accumulated m aterial from several c i t i e s . Nonetheless, a number of these are so in terestin g that they may be considered during our f i r s t year, before the completion of most of the i n i t i a l whole-city studies. Some of the more in teresting p o s s ib ilit ie s include: o A study of the "two black s o c ie tie s " hypothesis. discussed at some length in our i n i t i a l proposal. This was B asica lly , i t proposes an investigation of the p o s s ib ility that, while 304 -3 4 blacks are on the average becoming better o ff and more equal to whites, and most blacks are improving their lo t su b sta n tia lly , these very fa cts of improvement are separating the black majority from a black minority oriented around welfare and other aspects of so cia l pathology. The geographical interpretation of th is hypothesis has been termed by Walter W illiam s, "The C risis G hetto." This is the interpretation that Williams based on a special census taken of Cleveland in the mid '60s — that the w o rst-off portion of the black population was becoming increasingly concentrated in the worst portions of the ghettos, and that these areas were on the declin e, even as the overall black population was on the upgrade. o An additional cross-cuttin g study, the idea for which stems from the San Jose a n a ly sis, concerns "th e problems of the a fflu e n t ." The question i s whether re la tiv e affluence in an urban setting does not bring with i t i t s own so cia l and psychological problems. We have had some indication of th is in San Jose, where crime seems to be a m iddle-class rather than a low-income problem. One p o s s ib ility is that, using San Jose as a starting poin t, we may want to look at a number of urban areas for evidence of th is phenomenon. In seeking to discern the future character of urban problems, i t may be that in the long-run but foreseeable future the current urgent so c ia l problems associated with poverty w ill be solved; lacking Utopia at that point, the next range of problems may be those we now think of as the problems of the a fflu en t. o Another cross-cutting problem stressed in the July proposal was the determination of what, in fa c t, constitutes "national urban p o lic y ." As part of our basic methodology, we w ill be making projections for the future of an urban area on the b asis of an Walter William s, "C leveland's C risis Ghetto, TRANS-aotion_, September 1967. 305 -3 5 - assumption of no fundamental change in current policy — th is w ill be used as a baseline projection against which to te st proposed changes in p o lic ie s . of what current policy i s . knowledge; Yet this presupposes a knowledge In a general sense we have this in s p e c ific s , i t needs at le a st compilation and probably su b stan tially more analysis. We can l i s t the programs and p o lic ies under which the Department of Housing and Urban Development operates and we can analyze the "zero base" e ffe c ts of these. But HUD p o lic ie s are only a small part of the whole; we suspect — and our San Jose study seems to be bearing i t out — that p o lic ie s usually not considered in the "urban" category — income taxation and m ilitary procurement, for example — are far more in flu e n tia l in a ffectin g the plight of c it ie s than are sp e c ific urban p o lic ie s . I t may be very important, early in our program, to in it ia t e an investigation of what dominant current urban p o lic ie s are. These are some examples of cross-cuttin g analyses. With the exception of the la s t one, they are most lik e ly to stem from our i n i t i a l c ity studies rather than to involve new studies. I t seems reasonably certain that, ju s t as i n i t i a l work in San Jose has led us to consider the "problems of the a f flu e n t ," additional studies w ill generate additional problems for possible cross-cuttin g analyses. Rand mode of operation is well adapted to th is p o s s ib ilit y . The Under broad grants of the sort we have applied for here, Rand has been able to maintain the s e lf-d is c ip lin e necessary to produce policy-relevan t products over f i n i t e periods of time (the preliminary draft of the accompanying San Jose report, for example, was submitted to NSF in six weeks), while allowing i t s s t a f f enough freedom to think beyond the immediate problem. This is an esse n tia l part of the process of gen eralization , which has been the main subject of th is paper. The kind of in terd iscip lin ary group that has been assembled to work on San Jose is not only capable of drawing generalizations from i t s analyses; such an a b ilit y to generalize is as much of an in te lle c tu a l payoff as is the a b ilit y to 306 -3 6 - address the immediate concentrate problems. Even while the e ffo r t i s giving considerable attention to immediate c lie n t needs, the core group now assembled is deliberately working broadly rather than narrowly. With the funding requested here, this core group can be expanded both in siz e and in the number of d iscip lin e s represented (see July proposal) and the a b ility to work fle x ib ly , both in sp e c ific areas and on generalized topics w ill be su b stan tially increased. This, more than any mechanical method, is the basis of our mode of producing general policy analysis from the sp e c ific studies undertaken. 307 -3 7 - APPENDIX 1 CITY OF SAN JOSE CALIFORNIA July 2 2 , 1971 C it y H a u l S a n J o s e , C A C iro nN iA 9 5 1 I D T elepho ne 2 9 2 -3 1 4 1 CIT Y M A N A G E R M r . Robert A . Levine The Rand Corporation 1700 Main Street Santa M onica, CA 90406 Dear Bob: I was very pleased that your p ilot program on "systematic analysis of urban policy" was funded by the National Science Foundation and that ours w ill be the pilot c ity . I am now even more convinced that Rand's proposed program for the "urban structure analysis" w ill provide us with some of the tools so badly needed to make urban p o licy . As you know, I am particularly interested in analytical tools that \yi!i give us ccrr.c better understanding of urban growth ond to h<= nhle to determine what effect alternative proposals for land use would have in our decision-making process. We w ill, of course, provide you with all data that we have availab le and access to people in and out of the City's official structure who can help you understand the City and its problems. I hope that our joint efforts w ill provide the funding you need to create the fuli program using the analytical methods pre-tested in San Jose. I am looking forward to a long and continued relationship belween Rand and San Jose. Sincerely, T. C ity Manager 308 -38- CITY O F SEATTLE DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 400 Seattle Municipal Building • Seattle , Washington 98104 WES UHLMAN, Mayor JAMES BRAN1AN, Director Hr. R o b e r t A. L e v i n e T h e RAND C o r p o r a t i o n 1 7 0 0 M a i n S treet S a n t a Mo n i c a , C a l i f o r n i a Augu s t 18, 1971 90406 D e a r Mr. Levi n e : T h i s letter is a f o l l o w - u p to the d i s c u s s i o n s w h i c h h a v e bee n g o i n g on p e r i o d i c a l l y o ver the last yea r be t w e e n the RA N D Co r p o r a t i o n and v a r i o u s o f f icials of the City family, incl u d i n g f o rmer D e p u t y M a y o r Ri c h a r d Page, B udget D i r e c t o r R. W. Wilkin s o n , Jr., and m y A s s i s t a n t D irector, P eter Shepherd. The. p r o b l e n s of g o a l d e v e l o p m e n t and l o ng - r a n g e analysis a re of i n t e r e s t to this a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . At M a y o r Uh l m a n * s direction, m y staff is n o w u n d e r t a k i n g a n i n e - n o n t h effort to d evelop goals a nd o b j e c t i v e s for Seattle. Y o u r p r o p o sal to do w o r k in d e v e l o p i n g " a l t e r n a t e f u t ures" for S eattle st r i k e s us as an e xcellent c o m p a n i o n p i e c e and f o l l o w - o n to the w o r k w e are p r e s e n t l y doing. W e also th i n k that City staff w o u l d b e benefited thro u g h a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h the R A N D C o rporation. I am, there f o r e , d e l i g h t e d to hear of your N a t i o n a l Sc i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n p l a n n i n g grant. T he C i t y ’ s o w n l i mited f i n a n c i a l reso u r c e s p r e c l u d es our "b u y i n g in" on such a pr o ject on a cash basis. B ut w e a r e ce r t a i n l y i n t e r e s t e d in p u r s u i n g d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h a n eye to S e a t t l e ' s b e c o m i n g o ne of the " pilot cities" in your N S F project. S i n c e r e ly yours, cc: Mayor Wes Uhlman R. U. W i l k i n s o n , Jr., Budget D i r e c t o r OFFICE OF THE M AYOR C IT Y OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI A. J.fcCERV ANTES Wa vo r Mr. Ro b e r t A. L e v i n e 'The R a n d C o r p o r a t i o n 1700 M a i n Street Santa M o n ica, C a l i f o r n i a August 23, 1971 90406 Dear Bob: I was glad to see you on July 29 and 1 hope that ypu found i t rewarding. Y o u r o v e r a l l p r o g r a m as d e s c r i b e d in y o ur p r o p o s a l to the N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n can. if it w o r k s nut-, he of g reat use in p r o v i d i n g b a c i c a n a l y s i s not o n l y of the ove r a l l p r o b l e m s of our city, bu t the a n alysis that w e need c o n c e r n i n g n e i g h b o r h o o d c h a n g e an d ho u s i n g a b a n d o n m e n t in St. Louis. B e c a u s e this p r o c e s s has b e e n o c c u r ing wit h such r a p i d i t y in this city, it is i m p o r t a n t for us to get w h a t e v e r a n a l y t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n m a y b e br o u g h t to b e a r an d to r e c e i v e a ny p o l i c y r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s that ar e c o n s e q u e n t upo n this a n a l y t i c a l information. A s w e d i s c u s s e d today, the p r o b l e m is not si m p l y one of h o u s i n g in the C i t y of St. L o u i s b u t it is one that ha s m a n y social d i m e n s i o n s and cuts a c r o s s the b o u n d a r y lines of the total m e t r o p o l i t a n area. I find that the a p p r o a c h of the R a n d C o r p o r a t i o n in this p a r t i c u l a r p r o p o s a l s u b m i t t e d to the N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n to be pertin e n t , p r a c t i c a l and v e r y n e c e s s a r y f r o m the v i e w p o i n t of the C i t y of St. Louis. P l e a s e f e e l free to c a l l u p o n m e for a n y a d d i t i o n a l help. I hope that w h e n the p r o j e c t is f unded that w e w i l l b e seeing m o r e y o u a nd the o t her R a n d people. Sincerely, L u c i u s F . C e rvan t e s , Ph.D. A s s i s t a n t to t h e M a y o r 310 -40- M E M O R A N D U M DATE: NO.: TO: List FROM: A. H. Rosenthal SUBJECT: THE PLANS AND STATUS OF THE 1970 CENSUS FILES AT RAND 8 October 1971 CJM-49 (Please read memo number CJM-48, dated 5 October before reading this m e m o .) Rand has worked closely for the past year with the Bureau of the Census Field Office in Los Angeles called SCRIS (Southern California Regional Information Study). We joined the Research/University sector of SCRIS and, because of this, we have been one of the first organizations to successfully check out their computer programs. An example was the Admatch (address matching) OS version program which will soon be made available to the public. This program enables the user to match geographic codes to local data files, such as census tracts, or census blocks (geographic codes) to fire incidence files. We have used other programs written by SCRIS during the past months; although these are not as yet available to the public. Here is a brief description of each of them. They are intended to be used with the Census 1970 summary tapes. a) First Count Reporter - This program is used to obtain population, housing statistics, and age - sex pyramids. Data may be organized by the standard geographic codes such as census tracts or specially defined areas such as school or political districts. b) Census Summary Tape Selecter (Censlct). This is a program to select and reblock logical records from the census summary tapes. The program also creates up to five copies of the selected re cords. Records may be selected according to certain geographic codes, such as selecting out Los Angeles and Orange County from the California Census tapes. 311 TO: List 6 October 1971 -41- c) Columnar Aggregation and Tabulation System (CATS). Sometimes called STRIP (Summary Tape Retrieval and Information Processors). These are a set of computer programs designed to extract user selected data from the 1970 census summary tapes. The program provides for the aggregation of data, data manipulation and report generation as well as record selection. d) GRIDS (Grid Related Information Display System). This is a generalized computer graphics system capable of performing a wide variety of computer mapping tasks. We have used each of the above programs with success. In addition, SCRIS has provided us with the First Count Summary File for California and a special California MEDLIST (Master Enumeration District List) file with coordinates. In general, a MEDLIST file contains the alphabetic descriptions of the geo graphic codes used in the summary count tapes and therefore en ables the user to identify the codes used. For example, a code 37 in the summary count tapes stands for Los Angeles County. The special MEDLIST tape we received had the geographic coordinates for each of the blor.k groups records. We matched the MEDLIST file with the First Count Summary tape on block groups and created a new First Count tape with coordinates for each of the records. This enabled us to use this tape for computer mapping. Which we did successfully in two of our California research projects. Now for future plans. I have made plans for Rand to receive the California Second Count tapes from the Division of Highways in Sacramento in exchange for our First Count Summary tape with coordinates. We need SCRIS* permission to release it, but expect to obtain it shortly. Plans are being formulated to obtain the summary tapes for the nation as they are made available. We are tentatively setting up a ’ ’ working arrangement" with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) . They have contracted with Dualabs to receive Dualabs' version of the summary count tapes and I have been negotiating with ORNL to have them reproduce those files for us. In addition we may be able to get all of the Dualabs1 software programs as well. ORNL would charge us only for tape copying which happens to be very reasonable. They are being subsidized with HUD funds for the purchase of the census files. 312 TO: List 6 October 1971 -42- Around the middle of October, I hope to make the necessary arrangements to obtain a copy of the First Count Summary tape for New York State. In addition, I'll need the matching MEDLIST file. Project Rand, through John White's grant of $250, will finance the purchase of this file as well as the entire national file. This seed money will just take care of the acquisition costs not the processing costs. Funding will have to be provided so we can check out and implement some Du a l a b s 1 programs as well. The ideal situation would be to use the programs in a New York City subset of the census file. If they work, I ’ ll make the necessary arrangements to obtain the entire national file for our future research projects. AHR:sj 313 -43- A P P E N D I X 2. A M E M O R A N D U M DATE: NO.: 5 October 1971 CJM-48 TO: List FROM: A. H. Rosenthal SUBJECT: BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FORTHCOMING CENSUS FILES THEIR CONTENTS, AND TENTATIVE RELEASE DATES The present plan of the Bureau of the Census is to release the results of the 1970 census on six Public Use Summary Computer Tape files. The six will contain certain basic population and housing information about every person and housing unit surveyed. This information will be organized by what are referred to a° exhibits. The following is a brief description of these exhibits. EXHIBIT 1, SUBJECT ITEMS INCLUDED IN THE 1970 CENSUS Exhibit 1, items are referred to as complete count or 100% data items; it includes items such as race, age, sex, number of units, rooms, etc. There were additional questions asked of 20% of the respondents and these are referred to as the sample or 20%, 157o, and 5% data items. These are only found in the 4th, 5th, and 6th count files. The 100% items or complete count items are in all six files. Examples of the sample items are: income in 1969, education, bathroom, automobile, etc. EXHIBIT 2, PUBLIC USE SUMMARY COMPUTER TAPE FILES OF THE 1970 POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES In Exhibit 2, Column 1 "Name of File11 refers to the six different Summary Public Use Computer Tape files. They are called '‘ count11 files. Column 2 refers to the coverage namely complete (100%) or sample (20%, 15%, 5%) data items. Columns 3-5 refer to the smallest geographic area breakdown of the files. Note, that the census block is the smallest geographic area and that appears only in the 3rd count. After the census block, approximately in order of increasing size, is the block group (BG) or enumeration district (ED), tracts, places, minor civil divisions (MCD), and census county divisions (CCD) up to counties and states. The sixth column refers to the different number of crosstabs that 314 TO: List 5 October 1971 -44- will be available for each of the counts. The seventh column refers to the tentative release date of the files subject to change. I have revised the original schedule to reflect the current status. The eighth column indicates the subdivision or subfiles of the various counts by geographic area. For example, in the First Count, File A, the values for the crosstabs are for an individual block group or enumeration district; for the same count, File B, the values are for state leve, county levels, going down to congressional district levels. EXHIBIT 3, ITEM DETAIL IN THE VARIOUS DATA REPORTS Exhibit 3 illustrates some of the crosstabs that make up the data cells that are enumerated in Column 6 of Exhibit 2. EXHIBIT 4, SUMMARY TAPE FILES AND THE TYPES OF AREAS FOR WHICH THEY PROVIDE DATA Exhibit 4 illustrates the various summary count files and the geographic area that the data reflects. The Bureau of the Census is planning to issue in addition to the Public Use Summary Computer Tape files, another type of file called Public Use Samples. These are individual records and will permit identification of areas of less than 250,000 population. There will be three Public Use Sample files. The first will pro vide estimates at the state level; the second will be grouped by states and will provide data on neighborhood characteristics; and the third will provide estimates for the large S M S A 1s as well as county groupings containing the smaller SMSA 1s . The sampling ratio will be 1 in 100. In 1960, a 1 in 1,000 sample tape was created. The Bureau has updated this file to reflect a 1 in 100 ratio to make it com parable to the 1970 Public Use Samples file. The 1960 1/100 PUS has been released and the 1970 PUS should be out by the middle of 1972. This, briefly describes the various type of files that the Bureau of the Census has or will release with some of the tentative dates. 315 TO: List -4 5 - 5 October 1971 Rand has made arrangements with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to obtain the necessary files that it would need for its research program. This will include the First, Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Count Summary tapes when they are made available, as well as the 1960 and 1970 17o Public Use Sample Files. AHR:sj 316 -46E x h i b l t 1 . — SUBJECT ITEMS INCLUDED IN THE 1970 CENSUS COMPLETE COUNT DATA ITEMS -Included in each Count, 1st thru 6th -Shown for all census areas including city blocks Housing I tecs' Population Items 100 percent. .Relationship to head of household Color or race Age Sex Marital status Number of units at this address Telephone Private entrance to living quarters Complete kitchen facilities Roora3 Water supply Flush toilet Bathtub or shower Basement Tenure Commercial establishment on property Value Contract rent Vacancy status Months vacant SAMPL5 DATA ITEMS -Included on 4th, 5th and 6th Counts only -Shown for census tracts, MCCa and larger census areas Population Items 20 percent. 15 percent. 5 percent. .State or cou n try of birth Years of school completed Number of children ever born Employment status Hours vorked last week Weeks vorked in 1969 Last year in which vorked Occupation, industry, and class of worker Activity 5 years ago Income in 1969 •Country of birth of parents Mother tongue Year moved into this house Place of residence 5 years ago School of college enrollment (public cr private) Veteran status Place of work Means of transportation to work •Mexican or Spanish origin or descent Citizenship Year of immigration When married Vocational training completed Presence and duration of disability Occupation-industry 5 years ago iioi4si^^.,I,tem3 Components of gross rent Heating equipment Year structure built Number of units in structure ar.d whether a trailer Farm residence Source of water Sewage disposal Bathrooms Air conditioning Automobile 3 Stories, elevator in structure Fuel— heating, cooking, vater heati Bedrooms Clothes washing machine Clothes dryer Dishwasher Home feed freezer Television Radio Second home Exhibit 2 — PUBLIC USE SUMMARY COMPUTER TAPE FILES OF THE 1970 POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES OCTOBER 1 9 7 1 ^ Smallest geographic area Name of file (i) Cover age (2) In file (3) 1st Count.. 100£ Blockgroup/ ED 2nd Count.. 10056 Tract/ MCD(CCD) 3rd Count.. 4th Count.. 100% Block 20% Tract/ 15% MCD(CCD) 5% 100% 5th Count., 6th Count.. 20% 15% 5% 3- or 5digit ZIP area Approximate number in U.S. Average pop ulation size _ (4L 820 fract: A,000 '•ICD's: 200to one nilllon+ 90 Tract: 4,000 MCD's: 200to one rdllion+ 260.000 (3dli;it areas) 10.000 (5digit areas 100% in SMSA's 20% Pop.-Cities 500,000 15/o of 100,000! % Hous.-Citio:; 100% of 50,000+ . (5i. . 250,000 ED' 3 awl Blockrroups Tracts 34,600 Approximate number of data cells for each geographic area __ .(Ax__ - 1 7 1 — MCD's (CCD's) 35,000 1,500,000 Tracts 34,600 MCD's (CCD's) 35,000 uroao in the U.S. 400 Sept. 1971 3,500 Oct. 1971 250 Nov. 13,000 1 (File A & B, and Places) 1 Q 71 April 1972 ! 30,000 File C (ex cept Places) 800 788 (3-digit arcus) J2,5UG£/ (5digit aroas in SMS-A'n) 132 f100,0004-; Pop. 150,000 333 (50,000+; Hons. 110,000 _l7 Additional sucmary tape files will be developed subsequent!/. vill bo tabulated for the population in 5-digit areas that 2J Data Tentative tirrdng Jan. 1972 Jan. 1972 fall within SMSA's. File subdivisions File A: B'i or ED Summaries ;Filo B: State, County, HCD(CCD), MCD-Place, Place, Congressional District File A: Tract Summaries File B: State, County, MCD(CCD), Places, SMSA, and Component Areas Not applicable File A: Tract Summaries File B: MOD(CCD) Summaries File C: State, County, Places, SMSA, and Component Areas File A: 3-digit ZIP area File B: 5-digit ZIP areas in SMSA's Pop.-Metr.Counties, Non-Metr. Counties 50,000f, Cities 100,000+, Central Cities, SMSA's. Hous.-Sfcite, Metr. Counties, Non-Metr. Counties 50,000+, Cities 50,000+, Central Cities. SMSA's. There is a total of 39,000 5-digit 318 -48- Exhibit 3 — ITEM DETAIL IN THE VARIOUS DATA REPORTS ____________ ____________ Illustrative Examples AGE 1st Count SuEj&ary Tapes 2nd Count Summary Tapes 3rd Count Surras ry Tapes 4th Count Sutciary Tapes Under’5 5 6 7-9 10-13 14 15 16 17 18-19 20 21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-61 62-64 65-74 75 and over Under 3 3-4 5 6 7-9 10-1.3 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-61 62-64 65-69 70-74 75 and over Crosstabulated by Sex Under 5 5 6 7-9 10-13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-24 25-34. 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-61 62-64 65-74 75 and over Under 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Crosstabulated by Sex Cresstabulated by Sex by Race Crosstabulated by Sex 1st Count Summary Tapes 2nd Co-ant Sumary Tapes 3rd Count 5’ jnr.iary Taues 99 100 and over RACE White Negro or Elack Indian Japanese Chinese Filipino Hawaiian Korean Other Crosstabulated Three of the categories cros: by Sex tabulated by sex White Negro or Black Indian Other Specified Face Other White Negro or Black Other Crosstabulated by Sex 4th Count Suj^a r y Taoes * White Negro or Black Other Spanish language/ Puerto Rican Crosstabulated by over 1,CC0 cells of sarple information 319 -49- Exhibit 3 — Item Detail in the Various Data' Reports— Cont. plumbing 1st Count Summary Tapes Abilities Lacking one or more facili ties Fa cilities 2nd Count Summary Tapes 3rd Count Summary Tape3 4th Count Summary Tapes With all facilities With all facilities With ell facilities Lacking one or Lacking piped hot water only more facili ties Lacking piped hot water only Lacking other plumbing facilities Lacking other plumbing facilities Crosstabulated Crosstabulated Crosstabulated By owner-renter By ovner-renter Ey ovner-renter Ey race of head Ey race of head Ey race of head Also Crosstabulated by value, rent, size of struc ture, number of rooms, and other housing statistics INCOME 1st Count Summary Tapes 2nd Count Summary Tapeb 3rd Count Summary Printed Block 4th Count Summary Tape *5 N.A. N.A. tf.A. Under $1000 $1-2,000 $2-3,000 $3-4,000 $4-5,000 $5-6,000 $6-7,000 $7-8,000 $8-9,000 $9-10,000 $10-12,000 $ 12 - 15,000 $15-25,000 $25-50,000 $ 50,000 and over available | Computed for families, un related in dividuals Individual earnings cross tabula ted by sex and by certain occu pations E x h i b i t 4 . — SUMMARY TAPE F I L E S AND THE TY P ES OF AREAS FOR WHICH THEY PROVIDE DATA COMPLETE COUNT DATA ONLY F I R S T COUNT F ile A F ile S t a t e s . ......................... ...................... X C o n g r e ssio n a l D i s t r i c t s . . X S M S A 's ................................................... X B SECOND COUNT F ile A F ile B SAMPLE AND COMPLETE COUNT ITEM S THIRDi COUNT FOURTH COUNT F ile A F ile B F ile X X X X X P l a c e s ................................................... X X T ra c ts (in SM SA ’ s ) ................. B lo c k s (in U A ’ s ) ....................... Z i p C o d e A r e a s ............................. C CO C o u n t i e s ............................................. E n u m e r a tio n D i s t r i c t s o r B l o c k g r o u p s ....................... SIX T H COUNT to o L a rg o C i t i e s an d C o u n t i e s ........................................ M in o r C i v i l D i v i s i o n o r C e n su s C o u n ty D i v i s i o n . F IF T H COUNT X SOCIO-ECONOMIC Name Attributes or D e s c r i p t i o n Ti m e Period 1. L o n g i t u d i n a l EmployerEmployee D a t a (LEED) F i l e or 17. Continuous Work History Sample P e r s o n s who ha v e a S e c u r i t y n u m b e r and w o r k e d in a c o v e r e d p l o y m e n t : Age, sex, earnings, employer d u st ry ) 2. To e s t i m a t e the ch a r s c t e r i s t i c s of the poor: Age, f a m i l y sta t u s, ho u si n g , m a r i t a l h i s tory, tr a i ni ng , as se t s , liabilities Household revisited the s e c on d ye a r S u r v e y of Economic Opportunity (SEO) f i le Social have enrace, (in 3. M i c h i g a n L o n g i E c o n o m i c st a t us , ecotudinal Survey noraic b e h a v i o r , p e r F i l e or s o n a l i t y and a t t i t u d e s Survey R e f r o m a 3 ,0 0 0 SRC sa mp le search Center and 1, 9 0 0 SEO 1967 (SRC) L o n g i s a m p l e (o r i e n t e d to tudinal File poor people). House ho l d wi l l be r e v i s i t e d 1 95 7 1 9 66 OR URBAN Number of R e c o r d s 900,000 in dividuals in the U. S. DATA FILES Geographic Level October Quality Very Good County of Employer 1 96 6 and 19 67 30,000 households in the U.S. SMS A l e ve l 19 6 8 1 96 9 1 97 0 4,900 households in the U.S. County G o od , a cor rected fi l e is avail able Source Restrict ion Social Security Administra t ion Yes , Rand Use Only O f f i c e of Economic Opportun ity, Assist Corp. Yes , Rand Only Acquisition Co 3 t 1971 Update and $2000/yr update Contin u o u sl y, on a yearly ba s i s $50 0 On e T i m e $10 , 0 0 0 N o n e to us, bu t S u rv ey Research Center (SRC) has a f i xed co st Yearly y early Current Population Survey (CPS) Sample survey conducted m o n t h l y to o b t a i n es t im a t e s of e m p l o y m e n t , u n e m p l o y m e n t , and ot h er g e n e r a l la b o r f o r c e and of the p o p u l a t i o n as a w h o le ; in a d d i t i o n , s a m p l e q u e s t i o n s dea l w i t h p e r s o n a l and f a m i l y in c o me , m i g r a t i o n , e d u cational attainment 1963,1969 197 0 (Reflects M a r c h 1967 " 19 68 " 1969 surveys) 52,500 households; 105,000 persons, 16 y e a r s or o v er in U.S. 449 p r i mary samp 1 ing units co m prising 863 c o u n ties an d independent cities Bureau Yes, of L a b o r Rand Statistics Only and OEO N o n e to Yearly us , but B u r e a u of C e n s u s has a fi x e d cost oJ^Pber Name 5. IRS/ZIP Code Area Data File 1966 6 . Census Public U s e S a mp le , 19 6 0 7. Industry Profile Attributes or D e s c r i p t i o n Ti me P er iod N u m b er of Re c. cr ds Geo g r a p h i c L eve l 1966 3 0 , 0 0 0 zip c o d e a re a in U.S. Five digit zip c o d e are a C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s fr om the 1 9 6 0 C e n s u s of 0.1% s a m p l e of the U.S. P o p u lation, housing, h o u s e ho l d , d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the i n dividual 196 0 160,000 ind iv i d u al s in the U.S. Four regions in U.S . I n d u s t r y p r o f i l e s rel a t i n g to e m p l o y m e n t , payrolls, manhours, v a l u e of s h ip m e n t ; a d d e d v a l u e and c a p i tal e x p e n d i t u r e s for all m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s (424 SIC n u m b e r s - 4 d i g i t code) 1958 1967 424 i n d u s t ri es for 10 y e a r s National Good Source Restric tio n D ep t, of C o m e r ce Clearing H o u s e and Internal Revenue S e r v ic e Ac q u i sition Cost $55 Update On e tim B u r e a u of Yes, the C e n s u s Ra nd and U n i v e r - On l y s i t y of W i s consin Un known OO De p t , of Commerce Clearing House $55 to to -52 S t a t i s t i c s of 1966 I n c o m e by f i v e di g i t zip co de a r e a by fou r a d j u s t e d income classes, number of r e t u r n s , n u m b e r of joint returns, number of e x e m p t i o n s ( d e p e n d e n t s ) , to tal tax, to tal a d j u s t e d g ro s s in c o m e s Quality 1971 8 . K e a 1 1h Ir.forsa tio n Foundation Survey Hou s e h o l d survey 196 4 r e f l e c t i n g the f a m i l y Reflects e x p e n d i t u r e s for h e a l t h 19 63 data s e r v i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s u s e d. Also contains socio-economic char a c t e r i s t i c s of h o u s e h o l d s 2,36 7 f am ilie s (household d a t a only) S M SA *1 evel Good N O R C and Yes, Center Rand for H e a l t h Only A d m . Studies at U n i v e r s i t y of C h i c a g o $5 0 0 O ne 9. T i m e B u d g e t Survey H o u s c h o I d /Family Survey r e f l e c t i n g the b u d g e t i n g or a l l o c a t i o n cf time and h o w it c o n t r i b u t e s to inc o m e of the fa mi ly ; contains socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f a m i l y 2,21 4 adulta (f a m i l i e s ) Nat i on al by r e g i o n Good Survey Research Center. Michigan $350 One tine Jan-Feb 1965 Reflects 1964 d at a Yes, Rand Only time SOCIO-ECONOMIC OR URBAN DATA FILES October 1971 CALIFORNIA A t t r i bu t e s or D e s c r i p t i o n ® Appendix 2C 2. Time Period N u m b er of R e c o r d s Geographic L e v e l ____ Quality Source 1970 Census 10 0 % items First Count P o p u l a t i o n : H e a d of S u n a a r y T a p e s h o u s e h o l d , race, age, fo r C a l i f o r sex, m a r i t a l st a tu s, ni a etc. H o u s i n g : U ni ts , rooms, v a lu e, c o n t r a c t rent, f l u s h toile t, t e l e ph on e , w a t e r su p p ly , etc. A p r i l 1, 19 7 0 25,000 B l o c k group, California Very Good Bureau of the Census Master Enumeration D is trict List (MEDLIST) f or C a l i f o r n ia A p r i l 1, 19 7 0 25,000 B l o c k gr ou p, California Very Good Bureau of the Census Marvick UCLA P u r p o s e to j oi n the na m e s of c o u n t i e s an d pl ac es , l i k e c i ti e s , w i t h the g e o g r a p h i c co de s a s s i g n e d to each. T h e s e cod e s are us e d in the 19 70 ce n su s file s; p o p u l a t i o n and h o u s i n g u ni t c o u n t s are included . f i l e s a) V o t i n g R e c o r d s by C e n s u s T r a c t s s in c e 1964 b) 19 6 0 C e n s u s Da t a c.) 1968 Lo 3 A n g e l e s Regional Planning Com mission Population Re po rt d) Et h n i c S c h o o 1 P o p u l a t i o n as of 1967 as r e p o r t e d to H E W 1950 Census, Ex trac ti on for Lo s Ang e l e s City P o p u l a t i o n M i x by C e n sus T ra c t 19641 97 0 1,300 C e n s u s trac t » L os A n g e l e s County C e n s u s tract * Lo s A n g e l e s City Restrict ion a) U C L A Yes , Po l i t i c a l Rand Science Us e Dept. ' Only Bureau of the Census and C o m munity A n a l y s is Bureau Ac qu isition Cost Update Dec e n n i a 1 Regularly after elec tion y e ar and decennial Decennial I 00 to CO October 1971 C A L I F O R NIA Name Attributes 'or D e s c r i p t i o n Tim e Period Nu m b € r of R e c o r d s Geographic 19 7 0 500 c as e s per s u r v e y 1,639 5. Spccial polit ic a l s u r v e y s Los A n g e l e s Voter attitudes, 8 Surveys 6. Ethnic School S u r v e y - Los Angeles County E t h n i c b r e a k d o w n of school population by s c h o o l School Address F i l e - Los A ngeles School D i s t r i c t and Sur r o u n d ing A c t u a l a d d r e s s of sc hoo l, C e n s u s b l o c k an d tr act, p o p u l a t i o n of s c ho o l ; and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s suc h as gr a d e , j u n i o r high, high , s p e c i a l , etc. 1971 Household Survey Char a c t e r i s t i c s on ho u s i n g , family, education, m i g r a t i o n , et h n i c occupation, industry 1967 Area Los Angeles Regional Trans p o r t a t i o n Study LARTS 9. Oc tob er 19 7 0 Qua 1 i ty Source Los A n g e l e s Ci t y Good Corey A s so c. Individual s c h o o l s in Lo 6 A n g e l e s County Very Good 1,200 Los A n geles ar ea Very Good 1 6 , 0 0 0 in Los A n g e l e s County L A R T S zo n e s of a n a l y s i s Go o d s c h o o l s in Los A n g e l e s County schools O n e ti me Yearly Yes , R a nd Use Only Y es , Rand Use Only D iv i s ion of H i g h w a ys , Sacra mento Y es , Rand Us e Only None O ne tim e One time I Un I Los Angeles County T ax Assessor Ye s , Ra nd Us e On l y Co s t of T a pe Co p y Continuous 6, 0 0 0 in Santa Clara County B A TS zon es analysis Santa Clara County G oo d D i v i s ion of H i g h w a y s, San F r a n c is co Ye s, Rand U se Only $200 One of: Individual Lots Sa n t a Clara County Ye s , Rand Us e Only Periodically Records with G ind i v i d u a l id en t if ica t ion r e m o v e d , ca n be s u m m e d to c e n s u s t r a ct S a n ta Clara County Ye s , Rand Us e Only O n e time H o u s e h o l d s u rv e y: Char a c t e r i s t i c s on ho u s i n g , family, education, m i g r a t i o n , et h n i c, occupation, industry a n d o r i g i n and d e s t i n a tion of t ri ps 19 65 11. Land Use File Santa Clara C o u n ty L a n d use. by p a r c e l L a n d u se w i t h tax 196 2 1965 1957 225.000 260.000 300.000 12. Special Census f or S a n t a C l a r a C o u n t y - 196 6 Population & Housing C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s similar to an a c t u a l d e c e n n i a l census 1966 280.000 Update F ai r Bay Area Transportation S t u d y - BAT S Santa Clara County sub fil e assessed value a nd bl oc k. fi l e m a t c h e d a s s e s s o r fil e A c q u isition Co s t Lo s A n g e l e s County Block Ow n e r , p a r c e l n u m be r, a s s e s s e d l a n d va l u e , real p r o p e r t y , zo ni n g , tax r e v e n u e , u s e code, commercial employment 10. Restrict ion Ha l f M i l l i o n - C o u n ty T ax As s e s s o r F i l e L os A ng ele s Current 1971 Leve l time October CALIFORNIA Attributes ,or D e s c r i p t i o n Ti m e Period N u m b er of R e c o r d s - G e og r a p h i c Level Quality Source Restricti on Acqui sition Cos t 1971 Update 13. First Count 1970 Census S u m m a r y Ta p e Santa Clara County 1 0 0 % it e m s Census f r o m the 19 70 1 9 70 Block Group p S a n t a Cl a r a County Bureau of the Census Decennial 14. First Count 197 0 C e n s u s , Summary Tape Lo s A n g e 1 e s 1 0 0% i te m s f r o m the 19 7 0 Census 19 7 0 B l o c k Gro up, Los A n g e l e s County Bureau of the Census Dec e n n ia l County 00 to Oi 326 -56Appendix 3 A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF The Rand C o rp o ra tio n 1700 Main Street Santa M onica C alifornia 90406 September !97! SB-1 007 URBAN PROBLEMS BOOKS Book S t u d i e s in t h e E c o n o m i c s o f Transportation. K. B e c k m a n n , C. B. M c G u i r e , C. B. tfinsten. 19 5 6 . A n e x a m i n a t i o n of the t h e o r e t i c a l a s p e c t s o f h i g h w a y and. r a i l r o a d s y s t e m s . Concepts and m e t h o d s a re d e v e l o p e d for a s s e s s i n g t he c a p a b i l i t i e s and e f f i c i e n c y of e x i s t ing and projected traffic systems. 3 7 5 pp. ( P u b l i s h e d by Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1956. A v a i l a b l e on l y from b o o k s e l l e r s or the publisher.) (Non-RAN'H book, b a s e d o n a R A N D s t u d y , R M - 1 4 S 3 , p u b l i s h e d in 1955 u n d e r the same title.) B u r e a u c r a t s are clas s i f i e d as five basic types— climbers, conservers, zealots, ad vocates, and s t a t e s m e n — and the m o t i v a t i o n s and n o r m a l b e h a v i o r p a t t e r n s of each type are described. In c o n t r a s t t o the c o m m o n l y held notion that a b u r e a u c r a t i c m o n o l i t h i s d e p r i v i n g m e n of t h e i r f r e e d o m , t he a v e r a g e c i t i z e n of t o d a y e n j oy s a f a r g r e a t e r r a n g e of c h o i c e of p o s s i b l e behavior than his p r e d e c e s s o r s . 307 pp. (Published by Little, Brown and C o m p a n y , 1967, 5 6 . 5 0. Available only f r o m b o o k s e l l e r s o r the: p u b l i s h e r . ) Book Inside Bureaucracy. A. D o w n s . 1967. A s t u d y of b u r e a u s and b u r e a u c r a t s b a s e d on t h e p r e m i s e that, as a s p e c i e s , b u r e a u cratic organizations demonstrate predict a ble t r a i t s and habits. It is a s s u m e d that all b u r e a u s have s i m i l a r s t r u c t u r e s and s u r v i v a l i n s t i n c t s , and that most b u r e a u c r a t s arp b asically r a tional and a c t in t h e i r o w n i n t e r e s t s . The p e c u l i a r i t i e s , the c o n f l i c t i n g and c o m p l e x mo t i v e s of r e a l b u r e a u c r a t s p r o v i d e t h e d a t a for the a n a l y s i s . The typical life c y c l e of b u r e a u s a s t h e y m o v e f r o m b i r t h t h r o u g h g r o w t h to d e c l i n e a nd e v e n t u a l s t a g n a t i o n , rebirth or d e ath is d e s c r i b e d . Book A Data P r o c e s s i n g S ystem for S t a t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t s . E. F. P. H e a r l e , R. J. M a s o n . 1963. A s t u d y o f th e n a t u r e o f d a t a u s e d by s t a t e and local g o v e r n m e n t s and the d e s i g n of c o m p r e h e n s i v e s y s t e m s to s e rv e their l o n g - r a n g e needs. R e s e a r c h for t h i s book f o c u s e d on the t o t a l c o m p l e x o f f u n c t i o n s p e r f o r m e d by such g o v e r n m e n t s r a t h e r than on t he o p e r a t i o n s of a ny one a g e n c y , so t h a t the a n a l y s i s i s c o n c e p t u a l r a t h e r than procedural. C o n c e r n e d p r i m a r i l y with da t a p r o c e s s i n g , not d o c u m e n t or r e c o r d h a n d l i n g , t h e s t u d y d e s c r i b e s th e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and c a p a b i l i t i e s of data p r o c essing equipment; discusses the functions, 327 -57- structures, relationships, and prospects of s t a t e and local g o v e r n m e n t s ; a n a l y z e s the data these g o v e r n m e n t s handle; pro p o s e s t h e U n i f i e d I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e a as a l o n g - r a n g e g oal; a n d d i s c u s s e s s t e p s t h a t a g e n c i e s can ta ke both to i o p r o v e p r e s e n t d a t a s y s t e m s a n d to p r o v i d e l o g i c a l t r a n s i t i o n to t h e U n i f i e d I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m e n v i s i o n e d for the 1 9 7 0 ’ s. Appendixes pro v i d e f a r ther det a i l about data, present s e v e r a l m a j o r p r i n c i p l e s of d a t a s y s t e m de s i g n , c o m m e n t on e q u i p m e n t e v a l u a t i o n a n d s e l e c t i o n , and f u r n i s h r e f e r e n c e s for ad d i tional guidance. 158 pp. Bibliog. ( P u b l i s h e d by P r e u t i c e - H a l 1, I n c . , 1 9 6 3 , $4.95. Available only from books e l l e r s or the publisher.) Book Hater Supply: Economics, Tech n o l o g y , and P o l i c y . J. H i r s h l e i f e r , J. C. D e H a v e n , J. V. . M i l l i m a n 0 19 6 0 . A c r i t i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n of c u r r e n t a n d proposed water management schemes. Im p r o v e m e n t in a l l o c a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g w a t e r s u p p l i e s anti d e v e l o p m e n t o f a d d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s a r e c o n t r a s t e d as wa y s of m e e t i n g water demands. T w o c a s e s t u d i e s of c r u cial w a t e r - s u p p l y d e c i s i o n s , the C a n n o n v i ] 1p Prnjprt in Np u York Citv pin/ } H o F e a t h e r K i v e r P r o j e c t in S o u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a , a r e a n a l y z e d to i l l u s t r a t e and d e f i n e the technical, economic, and legal a s p e c t s of t h e p r o b l e m . 3 7 8 pp. (Pub l i s h e d by T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 96 0, 3 7 . 5 0 , Available only from b o o k s e l l e r s or the publisher.) Book Efficiency in Government Through Systems Analysis: W i t h E m p h a s i s on Water Resource Development. R. N. McKean. 1958. A n i n q u i r y i n t o the a n a l y s i s o f w a t e r resource investments and civil govern ment o p e r a t i o n s . T h e b a s i c aim of this s t u d y is t o s h o w h o w i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y d e r i v e s fr o m i m p r o v e d m e t h o d s of q u a n t i tative analysis. The author discusses t h e p r i n c i p l e s of o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h a n d s y s t e m s a n a l y s e s in t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f a l ternative w a t e r-resource inves t m e n t s and th e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f or a p p l y i n g s u c h t e c h n i q u e s o f a n a l y s i s to o t h e r g o v e r n m e n t a l activities. 34 8 pp. Bibliog. (Published by J o h n W i l e y & S o n s , I n c . , 1 9 5 8 , $ 8 . 0 0 . A v a i l a b l e o n l y f r o m b o o k s e l l e r s or the publis her.) Book The Urban T r a n s p ortation Problem. J. R. M e y e r , J. F. K a i n , N. W o h l . 1965. A study integrating div e r s e but relevant i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m i n a n e f f o r t to e x p e d i t e m o r e c o g e n t d i s c u s s i o n s of t h e a v a i l a b l e a l t e r natives. T h e e m p h a s i s i s on b a s i c i s s u e s rather than specific problems. Under l y i n g forcer; c o n d i t i o n i n g t h e g r o w t h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p a t t e r n s of a l l m e t r o p o l i t a n areas are i d entified and explored. In t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d a r e c h a n g e s in t h e t e c h n o l o g y of u rban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ; the c h a n g ing p a t t e r n of l a n d use w i t h i n m e t r o p o l i t a n areas; trip-making behavior, including c h o ic e of mode; and g o v e r n m e n t a l p o l i c y a f f e c t i n g l and use a nd t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e quirements. Appendixes summarize descrip t i o n s a n d c o s t s of v a r i o u s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems. 5 4 7 pp. ( P u blished by H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965, $ 1 1 . 9 5 . Available onl y f r o m b o o k s e l l e r s or the p u b l i s h e r . ) Book Thinking About Cities: New Per s p e c t i v e s on U r b a n P r o b l e m s . Edited by A. H. P a s c a l . 1970. A c o l l e c t i o n of p a p e r s o r i g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d f o r a 1 9 6 8 w o r k s h o p on U . S . u r b a n p r o b l e m s , j o i n t l y s p o n s o r e d by R a n d a n d The F ord Foundation. T h e w o r k s h o p ’s p u r p o s e w a s to d e f i n e and i n i t i a t e a c o m p r e h e n s i v e , l o n g - t e r m r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m w i t h i n Rand on u r b ? n p o l i c y i ^ n o s ^ n d to i n t e r e s t o - h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s in u n d e r t a k i n g r e l a t e d work. Participants included scientists, scholars, f e d e r a l and NYC o f f i c i a l s , and Rand s t a f f members. Contents, grouped thematically, c o v e r (1) r a c e r e l a t i o n : ; in t h e c i t y , (2) m u n i c i p a l o b j e c t i v e s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n , (3) t h e r e f o r m o f u r b a n p r o g r a m s , a n d (4) u r b a n v i o l e n c e and p u b l i c order. Specific con s i d e r a t i o n w a s g i v e n to r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s for p r o g r a m i n i t i a t i v e s , r e s e a r c h , and e x p e r i m e n t s in e d u c a t i o n , h e a l t h s e r v i c e s , welfare/public assistance, jobs and man power training, housing and urban planning, po l i c e s e r v i c e s and p u b l i c o rder, and m u n i c i p a l finance and a d m i nistration. 1 9 8 pp. ( P u b l i s h e d by D i c k e n s o n P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y , Inc., 1970, $4.95. A v a i l a b l e o nly from b o o k s e l l e r s or t h e p u b l i s h e r . ) (Also p u b l i s h e d b y R a n d a s P - 3 8 6 8 , A u g u s t 1 968.) (TC) REPORTS R-486-RSF T h e S o c i a l E f f e c t s of C o m munication Technology. E d i t e d by H. G o l d h a m e r , R. W e s t r u m . H a y 1970. T h i s r e p o r t r e v i e w s , in a n o n t e c h n i c a l fashi o n , the p r i n c i p a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s th a t u n d e r l i e the c o m m u n i c a t i o n r e v o l u t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y the t r a n s i s t o r and the computer. A n u m b e r of d e v i c e s and c o m m u n i c a t i o n s u b s y s t e m s t h a t m a k e u s e of 328 -5 8- t h o s e d e v c l o p m e n t s <u'o d e s c r i b e d , t o g e t h e r w i t h th e n e w c a p a b i l i t i e s t h a t t h e y p e r m i t . T h o p r i n c i p a l d i s c u s s i o n c o n t o r s on p o s sible* s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e s t)f tho c o m m u n i c at i o n r e v o l u t i o n and i n d i c a t e s s o m e po l i c y q u e s t i o n s they raise. In s o m e c a s e s c h a n g e s a r e a l r e a d y u n d e r way. Social e f f e c t s a r e d i s c u s s e d in t h e f i e l d s o f education, political behavior, crime, e c o n o m i c l i fe, g o v e r n m e n t a l r e g u l a t o r y a c t i o n , a n d the q u a l i t y of life. There i s r e a s o n for b o t h o p t i m i s m a n d p e s s i m i s m a b o u t t h e s e v a r i o u s e f f e c t s , but c o n s i d e r ably more analysis, research, and social e x p e r i e n c e w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o f o r e s e e f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t s a n d e n a b l e s t e p s to b e t a k e n t h a t w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e c h a n c e s of favorable outcomes. Some guidelines are p r o v i d e d for r e s e a r c h on the so c i a l e f f e c t s of c o m munication technology. 33 pp. (A u t h o r ) R-529-NYC An A n a l y s i s o f t h e A p p r e h e n s i o n A c t i v i t i e s of t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y Police Department. P. V. G r e e n w o o d . S e p t e m b e r 1 9 70 . T h i s report d e s c r i b e s a set of c r i t e r i a for eval u a t i n g a p p r e hension efforts that a r e c o n s i s t e n t vith the o v e r a l l oMp r ' t i of t h e c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m , a n d t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s e c r i t e r i a to e x i s t i n g programs. f o c u s is on p r o g r a m s l e a d i n g t o t h e a r r e s t of P a r t I o f f e n d e r s : homi cide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny, auto theft. "Probability of a r r e s t " was a d o p t e d a s the m e a s u r e of program effectiveness. For Part I crimes, i t w a s f o u n d t h a t p r o b a b i l i t y of a r r e s t is h i g h f o r c r i m e s o f p a s s i o n — h o m i c i d e , rape, a s s a u l t — and tha t p r o b a b i l i t y in c r e a s e s w i t h e f f o r t d e v o t e d to e a c h c a s e . F o r c r i m e s of p r o f i t , p r o b a b i l i t y o f a r r e s t i s e x t r e m e l y low and d o e s no t a p p e a r to i n c r e a s e with e f f o r t . General patrol a p p e a r s t o be m o r e p r o d u c t i v e t h a n t a i l s or stakeouts, and p l a i n c l o t h e s d e t ective p a t r o l p r o v e d m o r e p r o d u c t i v e in a r r e s t i n g serious offenders than uniformed patrol and i n v e s tigation activities. 7 3 pp. (DGS) N u m b e r of E m e r g e n c y Units B u s y at A l a r m s Which R e q u i r e M u l t i p l e Servers. J. C h a i k e n . M a r c h 197 1. C a l l s f or s e r v i c e a r r i v e a t a n i n f i n i t e s e r v e r q u e u e a c c o r d i n g to a m i x t u r e o f Poisson processes. S e r v i c e for e a c h p r o c e s s o c c u r s in a n u m b e r o f i n d e p e n d e n t s t a g e s ; s t a g e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d by t h e n u m b e r of e m e r g e n c y u n i t s b u s y s e r v i n g th e call. Assuming arbitrary finite mean-serv i c e - t i m e d i s t r i b u t i o n s , t he d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e n u m b e r of b u s y u n i t s a t a n y t i m e i s d e t e r m i n e d , a n d t h e a p p r o a c h to a s t e a d y - s t a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n is p r o v e d . 2*4 pp. Ref. (See a l s o R - 5 J 2 , R - 5 3 3 , P - 5 6 7 . ) (Author) R-532-NYC/HUD R e s p o n s e A r e a s for Two E m e r g e n c y !lnit.s, G. M. C a r t e r , J. Chaiken, F . Tgnall. M a r c h 1971. F o r a m o d e l in w h i c h 2 u r b a n e m e r g e n c y u n i t s c o o p e r a t e in r e s p o n d i n g t o c a l l s f rom a regi o n that may h a v e i n h o m o g e n e o u s l y d i s t r i b u t e d d e m a n d s a n d c o m p l i c a t e d travel times, the e x p e c t e d r e s p o n s e tine to cal l s fo r s e r v i c e an d the w o r k l o a d of e a c h unit a re c a l c u l a t e d as f u n c t i o n s of the b o u n d a r y t h a t s e p a r a t e s the 2 r e s p o n s e a r e a s . The bo u n d a r y that m i n i m i z e s mean r e s p o n s e time i s d e t e r m i n e d ; it ma y d i f f e r from the usual bo u n d a r y c o n s i s t i n g of poi n t s equidistant, from the 2 units. Some b o u n d a r i e s m a y be do m i n a t e d , in the s e n s e that a n o t h e r boundary improves both workload balance and r e s p o n s e time. The set of u n d o m i n a t e d b o u n d a r i e s is f o u n d . 5 6 pp. Ref. (Se e a l s o F- 53 1, R - 5 3 3 , R - 5 6 7 . ) (Author) O n I n s e n s i t i v i t i e s in Urban Redi s t r i c t i n g and F acility L o c a tion. R. c . L a r s o n . K . A. S t e v e n s o n . M a r c h 197 1 . T h e e x p e c t e d r e s p o n s e time of v e h i c l e s , d i s p a t c h e d f r o m f i x e d f a c i l i t i e s to s p a t i a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d i n c i d e n t s , i s s h o w n to be i n s e n s i t i v e to s u b s t a n t i a l c h a n g e s in f a c i l i t y l o c a t i o n s or r e s p o n s e d i s t r i c t design. R e p o s i t i o n i n g a set of r a n d o m l y located f a c i l i t i e s so that they are o p t i mally l o cated reduces mean r e s p o n s e time by no m o r e than 25%. A n a l y s i s of s i m p l e 2 - f a c i l i t y m o d e l s s h ows, in a d d i t i o n , that w i d e v a r i a t i o n s in t h e p o s i t i o n o f o n e facility imply r elatively small variations in t h e p o s i t i o n of t h e s e c o n d f a c i l i t y fo r t h e m i n i m i z a t i o n of m e a n r e s p o n s e t i m e . A c c o r d i n g l y , i t is s u g g e s t e d t h a t r e d i s t r i c t i n g and f a c i l i t y l o c a t i o n b a s e d on c r u d e a s s u m p t i o n s c o u p l e d w i t h an a w a r e n e s s of the h e u r i s t i c p r o p e r t i e s i l l u s t r a t e d by simple a n a lytic m o dels may yield mean re s ponse times very near the m i n i m u m p o s sible. 33 pp. Ref. (See a l s o P - 5 3 1 , R-532, R-567.) (Author) R-533-NYC/HnD 8 - 5 3 1 - NYC/MUD R-567-NYC/HOD An E x t e n s i o n o f E r l a n g ' s Formulas which Distinguishes Individual Servers. J. C h a i k e n , E . I g n a l l . March 1971. T h e m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o o f o f a r e s u l t u s e d in R - 5 3 2 - - c o n c e r n i n g the a r e a s s e r v e d by 2 e mergency units- - t o g e t h e r with related findings about certain n-unit systems. For a m o d e l in w h i c h t h e u n i t s c o o p e r a t e in r e s p o n d i n g to c a l l s in a r e g i o n , the s t e a d y - s t a t e p r o b a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g a 329 -59p a r t i c u l a r u n i t or s p e c i f i e d c o m b i n a t i o n s o f u n i t s b u s y is f o u n d f o r an a r b i t r a r y sorvice-time distribution21 p p. Ref. ( S e e a,lso R - 5 3 1 , R - 5 3 2 , R - 5 3 3 . J (Author) R-570-FF Cable Television: Opportuni ties and P r o b l e m s in Lo c a l Program Origination. N. E. F e l d a a n . September 1970. E valuates past CATV experience with local p r o g r a m m i n g in C a n a d a ; in t h e s o m e w h a t isolated tract of Dale City, Virginia; a n d in L a k e w o o d , O h i o , a s u b u r b o f C l e v e land. T h e s t u d y c o n c l u d e s t h a t (1) l o c a l p r o g r a m m i n g c an c o s t l i t t l e t o p r o d u c e , (2) c o m m u n i t y - o r i e n t e d p r o g r a m m i n g c a n a t t i m e s h a v e h i g h a u d i e n c e a p p e a l , (3) l o c a l volunteer groups can produce only a few h o u r s of p r o g r a m m i n g p e r w e e k t o a t m o s t p e r h a p s e n o u g h f o r 1 o r 2 c h a n n e l s , (4) to sur v i v e financially, CATV s ystems gen e r a l l y must i mport d i s t a n t s t a t i o n s as well as c a r r y s i g n a l s fro m loc a l s t a t i o n s (no o t h e r m e a n s f o r a t t r a c t i n g s u b s c r i b e r s h a s y e t b e e n s h o w n t o b e v i a b l e ) , (5) C A T V o p e r a t o r s s h o u l d b e r e g u i r e d to r e n t o u t e q u i p m e n t , to m a k e a v a i l a b l e t h e i r s t u d i o s , and to p r o v i d e free c h a n n e l s for c o m m unity p r o g r a m m i n g , a n d (6) C A T V o p e r a t o r s s h o u l d a l s o be r e q u i r e d to m a k e c h a n n e l s a v a i l a b l e on a leased basis with the c a b l e o p e r a t o r a b s o l v e d of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for p r o g r a m content. U3 pp. (A u t h o r ) R-576-OEO E a r n i n g s Mob i l i t y and E c o nomic Growth. J. J. M c C a l l . October 1970. A m o d i f i e d Markov a n a l y s i s of movem e n t into a n d o ut of l ow e a r n i n g s by w o r k e r s ag e d 2 5 to 55 d u r i n g 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 6 . B a s e d on t h e S o c i a l S e c u r i t y 1% C o n t i n u o u s W o r k H i s t o r y Sample, yearly transition probabilities were c a l c u l a t e d for i n d i v i d u a l 10-year e a r n i n g p r o f i l e s a n d a l s o h o r i z o n t a l l y by age group. Alternative low-earning stan dards were $1500, S3000, and $4500 per year. A s i g nificant number of employed p e r s o n s r e m a i n e d p o o r r e g a r d l e s s of e c o n o m i c gro w t h ; c h a n c e s w e r e s i m i l a r for non w h ^ t e males and w h i t e females, highest for n o n w h i t e females. White males were m o s t l i k e l y to s t a y o u t o f p o v e r t y . Ex c l u d i n g t h o s e t h a t r e m a i n b o t h in p o v e r t y and out of po ve rt y, GNP i n c r e a s e led to upward m o v e m e n t — more for nonwhite males tha n for w h i t e males. M o v ement into c o v e r e d em p l o y m e n t was more closely related t o p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e s in G N P f o r f e m a l e s than males. The proportion of female e a r n e r s w h o a r e o u t of t h e p o v e r t y l e v e l w a s s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r for whi t e s , e x c ept for the 25-34 age group. 80 pp. Ref . (MW) R-577-OEO S t r u c t u r e , I n c o m e , and Race: A S t u d y in I n t e r n a l L a b o r M a r k e t s . A. J. A l e x a n d e r . O c t o b e r 19 7 0 . E x a m i n e s the s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s a m o n g job s t a b i l i t y , f i r m a n d i n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e , and the w o r k e r s * age, e x p e r i ence, race, and e a r nings, from data in over 16,000 Social Security records for 1 9 6 5 f r o m m a l e s a g e d 20 t o 6 0 ( 9 0 % w h i t e ) . Large, complex, high-capital, h i g h - t e c h nology, high-paying "manorial" firms are i d e n t i f i a b l e by 85% or m o r e job s t a b i l i t y . M a n o r i a l i n d u s t r y r a n k i n g s on t h a t b a s i s alone agree with economists' observations. N onwhi t e s ' income, h i g h e s t in m a n o r i a l i n d u s t r i e s , is t w i c e a s r e s p o n s i v e as whites' to firm size. T h e i r a v e r a g e p a y o f f to ag e a n d e x p e r i e n c e is m u c h less, h o w e v e r , m ainly b ecause n o n w h i t e s did not reach the hig h e s t positions. T h e e v i d e n c e is strong for separate racial promotion lad d e r s , e x p e c i a l l y in t h e S o u t h , w h e r e n o n w h i t e s a p p e a r to be r e l e g a t e d to d e a d - e n d jobs. Previous industry experience out s i d e the f i r m p a y s o f f a l m o s t e q u a l l y b e t w e e n races; a f t e r a b o u t 5 y e a r s of f i r m e x p e r i e n c e the n o n w h i t e s ' i n c o m e c u r v e p a r a l l e l s the w h i t e s ' , s u g g e s t i n g th a t pe r haps em p l o y e r s regard their first few ye a r s ' e x p e r i e n c e a s an e x t e n d e d t r ial period. 37 pp. (MW) R-578-OEO R a c e D i f f e r e n c e s in I n c o m e . A. W o h l s t e t t e r , S. B. C o l e m a n . October 1970. C o m p a r e s the e n t i r e n o n w h i t e / w h i t e i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n over time, for i n dividuals, for f a m i l i e s , a n d for m a l e s and f e m a l e s , c o r r e c t s for age, e d u c a t i o n a l , and o c c u p a tional distribution, and uses a new tec h nique for d e t e r m i n i n g i n e g u a l i t y within groups. A s of 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 6 9 , n o n w h i t e i n d i v i dual and family i n c o m e s are much lower than those of whites, the d i s p a r i t y being acute at th e t o p of t he d i s t r i b u t i o n . Nonwhite i n c o m e is a l s o m or e u n s t a b l e . Educational return is sma l l e r for n o n w h i t e men than w h i t e men, but l a r g e r for n o n w h i t e w o m e n than white women. Income difference be t w e en men and wo me n is s m a l l e r a m o n g no nwhites than among whites. For women, white income su p e r i o r i t y is due a l most entirely to o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n ; for men o n l y a t h i r d of the d i s p a r i t y c an be a t t r i b u t e d to m a j o r o c c u p a t i o n s . Since unemployment r a t e s a nd d i f f e r e n t p r o p o r t i o n s in p o v e r t y a c c o u n t for ve r y l i t t l e of t h e o v e r a l l i n c o m e d i s p a r i t y , an a p p r o p r i a t e p o l i c y o b jective would p r o b a b l y be a more equal d i s t r i b u t i o n of n o n w h i t e s and w h i t e s a m o n g middle- and high-paying detailed occupa tions. 1 1 8 pp. Ref(MW) 330 -6 0 - R-579-OEO Income' G u a r a n t e e s a n d t h e W o r k i n g ?oor: The e f f e c t of I n c o m e M a i n t e n a n c e P r o g r a m s on t h e H o a r s of W o r k o f Mali' F a m i l y H e a d s . D. H. Groo n b t i r g , .V. K o s t e r s . D e c e m b e r 1970. Analyzer, e c o n o m i c e f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e income maintenance programs, considering n a l e r e c i p i e n t s ' w o r k or l e i s u r e c h o i c e s . L a b o r s u p p l y p a r a m e t e r s w e r e e s t i m a t e d by regression techniques from annual hours w o r k e d in 1967 by a b o u t 6 0 0 0 m a l e h o u s e h o l d h e a d s u n d e r 62 w i t h v a r y i n g l e v e l s of wage and nonemployment income. About 2.3 m i l l i o n s uch f a m i l i e s would p r o b a b l y p a r t i c i p a t e in t h e N i x o n F a m i l y A s s i s t a n c e P r o g r a m , r e c e i v i n g $4 b i l l i o n a n n u a l l y in c a s h a nd f o o d s t a m p s . A b o u t 6 2 % w o u l d go to w h i t e s ; 167. t o H e g r o e s ; o v e r 2 / 1 to f a m i l i e s of 6 or m o r e ; 1/3 t o i n n e r c i t i e s ; 1/3 to r u r a l a r e a s ; m o r e t h a n h a l f to f a m i l i e s with p r e p r o g r a m incomes over $4000. P a r t i c i p a t i n g f a m i l y heads' work w o u l d d e c r e a s e by 19 T ( w o r t h 5 1 . 4 b i l l i o n ) — o n e h a l f of o n e p e r c e n t o f h o u r s w o r k e d by the e n t i r e labor f o r c e — so f a m i l y i n c o m e w o u l d i n c r e a s e by 5 2 . 6 b i l l i o n not. All e f f e c t s a r e h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e to ta x r a t e s a n d t h e g e n e r o s i t y of th e pla n a d o p t e d . 146 pp. (FW) R-580-QEO E n h a n c i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s in Job Markets; S u m m a r y of R e s e a r c h an d R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s for Poli c y . A. H. Pascal. M a r c h 1 9 71. Policy and program re c o m m e n d a t i o n s and a s y n t h e s i s of 1 9 7 0 r e s e a r c h o n m a n p o w e r program evaluation, youth employment op p o r t u n i t y , l a b o r m a r k e t i m p e d i m e n t s to d i s a d v a n t a g e d worke r s , e f f e c t s of n a t i o n a l p o l i c y on t h e p o o r , a n d r a c e d i f f e r e n c e s in income. A s u s t a i n e d h i g h l e v e l of a g g r e g a t e d e m a n d is i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e e c o n o m i c h e a l t h of f a m i l i e s of p o o r a n d mod e r a t e incomes. A d m ission into new o c c u p a t i o n s would give b l a c k s a structure s i m i l a r to w h i t e s . S e n s i t i v i t y to d e m a n d i s n o t c o u n t e r b a l a n c e d by d i s a d v a n t a g e s i m p o s e d by i n f l a t i o n o n t h e p o o r . In e q u a l i t y in j o b o p p o r t u n i t y c o n t i n u e s to be p e r v a s i v e E m p l o y e r s ' c o n t i n u e to act o u t t h e i r u n c e r t a i n t y o v e r n e w h i r e s in l e s s - f r e q u e n t h i r i n g a n! p r o m o t i o n of di s a d v a n t a g e d workers. W a y s to i n c r e a s e p r o m o t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s s h o u l d be u r g e n t l y sought. A h i g h gua ra nt.ee/h i g h t a x e a r n i n g w e l f a r e p r o g r a m would b e n e f i t the p oor without decreasing national output sub stantially. Other suggestions include (1) f i n a n c i a l g r a n t s f o e l o n g - d i s t a n c e m o v e s ; (2) a m i n i m u m w a g e t a i l o r e d to y o u n g w o r k e r s ; (3) a n e w s y s t e m o f v o c a t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n ; a n d (4) i m p r o v e d o r g a n i zation of exi s t i n g data. 6 5 pp. Ref. (SH) R - 5 9 3— T!riD/RC A i d s to D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in P olice Patrol. J. S. K a k a l i k , S. Wildhorn. F e b r u a r y 1971. O v e r v i e w of m a j o r f i n d i n g s o f a s t u d y o f a i d s to p o l i c e p a t r o l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . With incr e a s i n g d e m a n d s on U n i t e d local g o v e r n m e n t funds, t h e r e is a g r o w i n g need f o r e f f e c t i v e a i d s t o d e c i s i o n m a k i n g in determining proper patrol force strength, e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of p a t r o l s e r v i c e s by p o l i c e d i s t r i c t and tour of duty, and ef f ective o p e r ational policies and tactics for police patrol. In a d d r e s s i n g t h e s e m a j o r i s s u e r , this s t u d y s u g g e s t s that p o l i c e d e p a r t m e n t s (1) u s e c e r t a i n m u l t i p l e c r i t e r i a in d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , (2) d e v e l o p i n p r o v e d m e t h o d s in a l l o c a t i n g p a t r o l r e s o u r c e s , (1) c o l l e c t c e r t a i n m a n a g e m e n t o r i e n t e d d a t a , (4) h i r e c o m p e t e n t c i v i l i a n p l a n n e r s a n d g i v e t h e m r e a d y a c c e s s to t o p p o l i c e m a n a g e m e n t , a n d (r') u n d e r t a k e l o n g term r e s e a r c h to b r i d g e gaps in p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n p o l i c e r e s o u r c e s and police effectiveness. 11 5 pp. (See a l s o R-593 (Abridged), R-594.) (KB) R - 5 9 3 - H U D / R C (Abridged) A i d s to D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in P o l i c e P a t r o l : A Summary of S t u d y F i n d i n g s . J. S. K a k a l i k . S. W ild horn. F e b r u a r y 1971. T h i s r e p o r t is a s u m m a r y of R-593-I1UD/PC. 15 pp. (KB) R-594-HUD/PC A i d s t o D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in Police Patrol: Survey Response. J. S. K a k a l i k , S. W i l d h o r n . F e b r u a r y 1971. A c o m p a n i o n stu d y to R-593, t h i s r e p o r t c o n t a i n s the d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s of a s u r v e y of p o l i c e p a t r o l in 6 m a j o r U .S. p o l i c e jurisdictions: L .A . City Police, L . A . C o u n t y S h e r i f f ' s D e p a r t m e n t , P h o e n i x Police, St. L o u i s M e t r o p o l i t a n P o l i c e , a n d t w o other municipal police departments. Infor m a t i o n w a s o b t a i n e d by b o t h q u e s t i o n n a i r e , and p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w on f u n c t i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s of the p a t r o l force; c o s t s , m a n p o w e r use a nd o p e r a t i o n ; p a t r o l t a c t i c s a n d o p e r a t i o n s ; d e p l o y m e n t itc t h o d o l o g y ; pa t r o 1 - s e r v i c e demand; records and handling data; c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s e r v i c e s ; i n t e r n a l p l a n n i n g and r e s e a r c h ; o u t s i d e c o n s u l t a n t s ; and the j u r i s d i c t i o n ' s v i e w of i m p o r t a n t problems. S u r ve y r e s p o n s e is p r e s e n t e d v e r b a t i m a n d in d e t a i l in t h i s d o c u m e n t . 112 p p . (See a l s o R - 5 9 3 . ) (SM) R-621-NYC The Police Internal A d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f J u s t i c e in New Y o r k C i t y . B. C o h e n . N o v e m b e r 1970. A n a n a l y s i s of N Y C P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t r e c o r d s s h o w i n g a l l e g a t i o n s of m i s c o n d u c t a g a i n s t 1 9 1 5 p o l i c e o f f i c e r s a p p o i n t e d in 331 -611957, a nd the d i s p o s i t i o n of t h o s e a l l o c a tions. T h e m ain f i n d i n g s were: Of 204 c r i s i i n a l - m i s b c h a v i o r a l l e g a t i o n s , 31 w e r e b r o u g h t to d e p a r t m e n t a l trial; 6 r e s u l t e d in s e v e r e d i s p o s i t i o n s . Of t h e 2 0 4 a l l e g a t i o n s , 1HU w o r e f o r c o r r u p t i o n ; 23 r e s u l t e d in f o r m a l c h a r g e s a n d a h e a r i n g , a n d 5 of t h e s e w e r e g i v e n s e v e r e d i s p o s i tions. O nly 1 off i c e r c h a r g e d with a c c e p t ing a gratuity received a penalty more severe than a verbal sanction or minor fine. Host civilian complaints were dis m i s s e d or f i l e d ; of 54 1 r e c o r d e d , 21 o f f i c e r s we r e found guil t y , w ith 1 c a s e re s u l t i n g in a fine. None of 230 " p r o t e s t s u m m o n s " c a s e s w ere b r o u g h t to trial. F o r an 1 1 - y e a r p e r i o d , o n l y 5 o f t h e 1 9 1 5 men were s u s pended for c r i m i n a l c h a r g e s or civilian complaints. No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s in t h e w a y t h e d e p a r t m e n t h a n d l e s mi s c o n d u c t were obs e r v e d between races. 94 pp. (DGS) R-632-NYC A Simulation Model of Fire Department Operations: Design and Pre l iminary Results. G. M. C a r t e r , E. Ignall. N o v e m b e r 1970. A s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l d e s i g n e d to c o m p a r e different policies for locating, relocat ing, a nd d i s p a t c h i n g f i r e - f i g h t i n g u n i t s describedI treated include: the u s e o f i n t e r n a l m e a s u r e s of p e r f o r m a n c e as p r o x i e s for g l o b a l o n e s ; the use of a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s f o r v a r i o u s subprobleras to yield policies to be tested; the han d l i n g of l o s s o f l i f e a n d o t h e r i m p o r t a n t but ra r e events. The S I M S C R I P T 1.5 s i mula tor and input and post-simulation analysis programs are described. Results that have been used by the Fire D e p a r t m e n t of the C i t y of N e w York, a r e p r e s e n t e d a n d a n a lyzed. 44 pp. Ref. (Author) R-634-NYC Factors Affecting Maintenance a n d O p e r a t i n g C o s t s in F e d e r a l P u b l i c Housing Projects. C. P. R y d e l l . De c e m b e r 19 7 0 . A s t u d y o f c o s t s in N e w Y o r k C i t y p u b l i c housing, using m ultiple r e gression ana l y s i s to investigate price inflation, produc t i v i t y of i n p u t s , s t a n d a r d s o f s e r v i c e , deterioration, e c o n omies of scale, tenant w e a r and tear, p r o j e c t d e s i g n , a nd p r o j e c t l o c a t i o n as h y p o t h e s i z e d c a u s e s of c os t variation. F rom 1 9 3 9-1967, 91% of m a i n tenance and operating cost variation re s u lted from price inflation, project aging, c h a n g e s in s e r v i c e , p r o j e c t s ize, a nd a v e r a g e unit size. M&O e x p e n s e s have in c r e a s e d 5% per y ear s i n c e the 1940s; t h i s means that housing rents must increase f a s t e r o r n e w k i n d s of s u b s i d i e s m u s t be found. Project aging increases maintenance costs. Larger a p a r t m e n t s are more e x p e n s i v e to run, but the i n c r e a s e is l e s s than p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e i n c r e a s e in s i z e . O b s e r v e d c o s t s a v i n g s in l a r g e r p r o j e c t s s e e m to r e s u l t f r o m l a r g e r M & O o r g a n i z a ti o n s , n o t from p h y s i c a l s i z e . 8 6 pp. (SM) R-638-NYC T h e F l o w of A r r e s t e d Adu l t D e f e n d a n t s t h r o u g h the M a n h a t t a n C r i m i n a l C o u r t in 1 9 6 3 a n d 1 9 6 9 . J. B. Jennings. J a n u a r y 1971. T h i s s t u d y is d e s i g n e d to i d e n t i f y o p e r a t ing p r o b l e m s and to p r o v i d e a f r a m e w o r k fo r a n a l y s i s of r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n p r o b l e m s and c o urt procedures. The s t u d y followed some 5000 cases through the court, 90% of w h i c h f o l l o w e d o n e o f 8 o r 9 direct, p a t h s t h r ough arra i g n m e n t , heari n g , and trial. N u m b e r s o f a r r a i g n m e n t s i n c r e a s e d b y 15 % in 1969. D i s p o s i t i o n p a t t e r n s r e m a i n e d the same. Average duration for cases entering t h e c o u r t w a s 9 w e e k s ; 5 E t o o k o v e r 10 months. Duration varied from 1 3 . 1-week av e r a g e for felonies and 1 2.8-week a v e r a g e f o r m i s d e m e a n o r s to 2 . 7 - w e e k a v e r a g e f o r violations. Felonies and vi o l a t i o n s showed n o c h a n g e in d u r a t i o n , b u t m i s d e m e a n o r s p a s s e d t h r o u g h mo r e q u i c k l y , with 2 7 % i n c r e a s e in n u m b e r s i n 1 9 6 9 . U p d a t i n g of t h i s s u r v e y is s u g g e s t e d and a p r e d i c t i v e 1 n'.odol. o f t h case-flow (See a l s o process is recommended. RM-6464.) (SM) ?_^ 14 4 pp. R-648-NYC H o u s i n g C o d e E n f o r c e m e n t in New York City. M. B. T e i t z , S. Rosenthal. F e b r u a r y 19 7 1 . A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f N Y C ’s e f f o r t s t o e n f o r c e the Hou s i n g M a i n t e n a n c e Code for rental h o using through the O f f i c e of C o d e E n f o r c e ment (OCE). Wid e s p r e a d u n d e r m a i n t e n a n c e r e s ults from e conomic and s o cial forces t o o p o w e r f u l t o b e o v e r c o m e b.y t h e O C E . T o o - r i g i d rent controls, o p e r a t i n g cost i n c r e a s e s , p o v e r t y - s t r i c k e n t e n a nt s, and v a n d a l i s e f o r c e l a n d l o r d s to u n d e r m a i n t a i n and aba n d o n buildings. Much O C E e f f o r t is wasted: i n s p e c t i o n s r e v e a l t r i v i a l or d u p l i c a t e c o m p l a i n t s , or c h r o n i c o f f e n d e r s . I n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d when c o m p l a i n t s are p l a c e d and d u r i n g i n s p e c t i o n s is i n a d e quate. Reso u r c e s a v a i l a b l e through OCF i n c l u d e n o n e a p p r o p r i a t e f o r b u i l d i n g s in real financial distress. Violators brought to c o u r t t y p i c a l l y r e c e i v e t r i v i a l p u n i s h ment. The system needs redesigning: (1) OCE must a c q u i r e legal a u t h o r i t y and fi n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s to r e s p o n d p r o m p t l y , a p propriately, effectively. (2) H o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s n e e d r e v i s i o n to r e f l e c t t h e r e a l i t i e s of the m a r k e t p l a c e . (3) O C E n e e d s p r o c e d u r e s to i d e n t i f y s u b s t a n d a r d b u i l d i n g s in e n o u g h d e t a i l for a p p r o p r i a t e response. Even s uch a r e d e s i g n e d program 332 - 62 - n e e d s support from a 'jo^r a \ i y improved uarkot. 77 pp. (SM) R-649-NYC R e n t a l H o u s i n g in Nev.- t o r k City. V o l u m e II: T h e D e m a n d for Shelter. I. S. L o w r y , J. S. D o S a l v o , B. V o o d f ill. J u n e 19 7 1 . Th i s s t u d y i s i n t e n d e d p r i m a r i l y to s h e d l i g h t o n t h e a b i l i t y of t h e C i t y ' s 2.1 m i l l i o n r e n t e r h o u s e h o l d s t o pay for a d e quate housing. It t r a c e s r e c e n t c h a n g e s in t h e n u m b e r s a n d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e City's households, their living arrange ments, and their incomes. I t e x a m i n e s t he c h a n g i n g p a t t e r n of r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e s by t h e s e h o u s e h o l d s and a n a l y z e s t h e v a r i a tions in rent e x p e n d i t u r e s among different t y p o s of h o u s e h o l d s a n d i n t h e C i t y ' s principal housing submarkets. It shows who has benefited from the C i t y ' s program of rent c o n t r o l and how l a r g e t h e b e n e f i t s have been. It a l s o s h o w s h o w t h e s y s t e m of rent c o n t r o l has a f f e c t e d the p a t t e r n of h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n a n d r e n t e x p e n d i tures. F i n a l l y , on t h e b a s i s o f 1 9 6 8 d a t a , it a t t e m p t s to d i s t i n g u i s h w h i c h a m o n g t h e Ci t y ' s renter ho u s e h o l d s were then unable to a f f o r d a d e q u a t e h o u s i n g w i t h o u t some f o r m of a s s i s t a n c e a n d t o e s t i m a t e h o w much a s s i stance these h o useholds needed. 34 3 pp. (See a l s o P M - 6 1 9 0 . ) (Author) R-675-H0D R e s p o n s e of E m e r g e n c y Units: T h e E f f e c t s of B a r r i e r s , D i s c r e t e Streets, and O ne-Way Streets. R. C. Larson. A p r i l 1971. In r e a l i s t i c u r ban e n v i r o n m e n t s , e m e r g e n c y r e s p o n s e vehicles may e n c o u n t e r o n e - w a y s t r e e t s and b a r r i e r s s uch a s r i v e r s t hat impede rapid response. Formulas are de v e l o p e d for the a s s o c i a t e d i n c r e a s e in m e a n t r a v e l d i s t a n c e , u s i n g a m o d e l in w h i c h b o t h the d e m a n d s f o r s e r v i c e a n d t h e l o c a t i o n s of t h e v e h i c l e are u n i f o r m l y d i s t r i b u t e d over the r e s p o n s e area. Bar r i e r s of e v e n m o d e r a t e s i z e are found to i n c rease average travel distance less than 10%, a n d a s y s t e m o f o n e - w a y s t r e e t s i n c r e a s e s t h e a v e r a g e d i s t a n c e by 2 b l o c k lengths. H o w e v e r , in 6 . 2 % o f r e s p o n s e s o n a o n e - w a y s t r e e t grid, the v e h i c l e has t o t r a v e l an e x t r a 6 b l o c k l e n g t h s . 42 pp. (Author) R-680-HUD/USF Methods for A l l o c a t i n g Urban Emergency Units. J. C h a i k e n , R. C. L a r s o n . May 1971. A s u r v e y of c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h on the a l l o c a t i o n of m u n i c i p a l e m e r g e n c y s e r v i c e s y s tems, w i t h the e m p h a s i s on p o l i c e p a t r o l car.; a n d f i r e e n g i n e s a n d l a d d e r s . The a s p e c t s of allo c a t i o n p olicy d i s cussed are (1) d e t e r m i n i n g t h e n u m b e r o f u n i t s ( v e h i c l e s ) n e e d e d on d u t y in e a c h g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s o f t h e d a y or w e e k , (2) s e l e c t i n g t h e u n i t (s) t o r e s p o n d t o a p a r t i c u l a r i n c i d e n t , (3) d e t e r m i n i n g Lhe l o c a t i o n s o r p a t r o l a r e a s f o r t h e u n i t s c'1* d u t y ar.* d e s i g n i n g p a t r o l c o v e r a g e patterns’ , " l' d e c i d i n g w h e n u n i t s s h o u l d be r e d e p l o y e d ^ '.-.prove s e r v i c e in areas where a large number u I units are t e m p o r a r i l y busy. The report describes bot h t r a d i t i o n a l r u l e s of t h u s b f or a l l o c a tion and newer q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d s based o n q u e u i n g t h e o r y , g e o g r a p h i c a l m o d e l s , and s i m u lation models. 6 6 pp . Ref. (Author) R-681 Urban Fire Protection: Studies of the O p e r a t i o n s of the New York Ci t y Fire Department. E. H. B l u n . January 1 971. D e s c r i p t i o n of u r b a n f i r e p r o t e c t i o n s t u d i e s b e i n g c o n d u c t e d j o i n t l y h y t h e Fir»» D e p a r t m e n t o f t h e C i t y o f N e w Y o r k (FDNY) and The New York C i t y - H a n d I n s t i t u t e . Un der w a y now nearly three years, these s t u d i e s have: (1) c r e a t e d t h e p e r s p e c t ive s , m e t h o d s , a p p r o a c h e s a n d r e s u l t s of a n e w a n a l y t i c a l f i e l d ; (2) t r a ^ f s f o r n e d these re s e a r c h p r o d u c t s into policies, h e l p e d p u t the p o l i c i e s i n t o p r a c t i c e and e v a l u a t e d r e s u l t s ; (3) h e l p e d a l t e r t h e F D N Y 's f i r e - f i g h t i n g t e c h n o l o g y , t h e o p e r a t i o n of i t s d i s p a t c h i n g s y s t e m , a n d t h e w a y s it m a n a g e s a n d d e p l o y s i t s m e n a n d e q u i p m e n t ; (4) y i e l d e d g a i n s in o p e r a t i o n a l e f f e c t i v e n e s s v a l u e d at m a n y a i l l i o n d o l l a r s p e r y e a r — a n n u a l r e t u r n s m o r e t h a n ter* t i m e s t h e s t u d i e s ' c o s t ; (5) h e l p e d t h e FDNY develop new problem-solving c a p a b i l i ties and i m p r o v e i ts b a s e s f o r f u t u r e d e cis i o n s and policies. ( P r e s e n t e d at S y m p o s i u m on U r b a n F i r e s , AAAS 137th A n n u a l Meeting.) 23 p p. (Author) R-702-NYC M i n o r i t y R e c r u i t i n g in t h e New York City Police Department: Part I. T h e A t t r a c t i o n o f C a n d i d a t e s ; PartII. T h e R e t e n t i o n of C a n d i d a t e s . I. C. H u n t , J r . , B. Cohen.. M a y 197 1. The P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t i n c r e a s e d the p r o p o r t ion of m i n o r i t y g r o u p r e c r u i t s f rom i n 1 9 5 7 t o 18* i n 1969.. Nonetheless, since t h e C i t y p o n u l a t i o n i s 11 % b l a c k a n d P u e r t o Rican, f u r t h e r e f f o r t s at m i n o r i t y r e c r u i t i n g are required. Advertisements in t h e D a i l y N e w s a n d o n s u b w a y p o s t e r s , use of e x i s t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n s of m i n o r i t y group policemen, and greater personal c o n t a c t with a p p l i c a n t s by the P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t a p p e a r to be th e b e s t a p p r o a c h e s . Minority group can d i d a t e s are more in t e r e s t e d in t h e s e r v i c e a s p e c t s of p o l i c e work, as o p p o s e d to pay or f r i n g e b e n e f i t s , than their white count e r p a r t s . They are 8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 7 2 - pt. 1 - - 2 2 333 -63- a l s o m o r e l i k e l y t o d r o p o u t of the l e n g t h y and somewhat c o n f u s i n g a ppointment process. T h i s a t t r i t i o n s e ens to r e s u l t froa the i n d i v i d u a l s l a c k o f 1a o t i v a t i o n r a t h e r than froa outright rejection. Among candi dates who completed all the steps in the application process, the fraction accepted by the police Departaent did not differ by race. 117 p p . (Author) 8-703-NSF Fire I n s u r a n c e and the Inner City. H. D. S h a p i r o . F e b r u a r y 1971. F i r s t in a s e r i e s of p r o j e c t e d r e p o r t s on t h e p r i v a t e m a r k e t in f i r e p r o t e c t i o n . This report describes the problems dealing v i t h t he s t a t e o f f i r e i n s u r a n c e in t he i n n e r c o r e of m a j o r m e t r o p o l i t a n area s . Fire insurance plays a significant role in t h e e c o n o m i c h e a l t h of i n n e r - c i t y n e i g h borhoods because most financial institu t i o n s r e q u i r e a p r o p e r t y t o b e c o v e r e d by in surance before they will lend its owner any money. In r e c e n t y e a r s , i n n e r - c i t y property owners have had great difficulty in o b t a i n i n g i n s u r a n c e c o v e r a g e . After the c i v i l d i s o r d e r s of the m i d - 1 9 6 0 s e x a c e r b a t e d the problem, federal l e g islation was introduced; while it has e x p a n d e d the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i n s u r a n c e , c o v e r a g e is still costly or unobtainable for many inner-city property owners. The sources of t h e p r o b l e m lie in t h e d e c a y of the i n n e r c i t y a n d t h e r e f u s a l of the i n s u r a n c e i n d u s t r y to a d a p t its m e t h o d s to t he c h a n g ing urban environment. U1 p p . (Author) RAND MEMORANDA RM-2824-FF Transportation for Future Orban Communities: A Study Prospectus. Logistics Department. A u g u s t 1961. Pre l i m i n a r y out l i n e of the RAND s t udy of urban transportation. T e c h n i q u e s u s e d by many major m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s in urban analysis are described, and the gross c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a m o d e l d e s i g n e d to ■eet s o m e s u g g e s t e d c r i t e r i a f o r f u r t h e r research are examined. The discussion presents a framework for a research pro gram on u r b a n tra n s p o r t a t i o n , a nd then divides the subject into a number of s t u d i e s t h a t not only vi l l make an i m p o r tant ind e p e n d e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n to urban a n a l y s i s , b ut w i l l a l s o a l l o w an o v e r - a l l i n t e g r a t i o n of r e s u l t s . 5 3 pp. RH-2878-FF A First Approximation to a R A H D M o d e l f o r S t u d y of O r b a n T r a n s p o r tation. J , F. K a i n , J. R. M e y e r . No- v e m b e r 1961. A d e s c r i p t i o n of a g e n e r a l i z e d m o d e l o f a n urban complex for studying the i n t r i c a t e interrelationships between transportation a n d the s p a t i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of e c o n o m i c activities. While the behavioral rela t i o n s h i p s s u g g e s t e d in t h i s f i r s t a p p r o x i m a t i o n f a l l s h o r t of c o n s t i t u t i n g a f u l l " s t r u c t u r a l m o d e l " of u r b a n e c o n o m i c a n d social processes, they do provide a sys t e m a t i c f r a m e w o r k for c o l l e c t i n g s o m e of t h e i n f o r m a t i o n n e e d e d to c o n s t r u c t m o r e c o m p l e t e and b a s i c models. 5 7 p p. RM-2922-FF A u t o m o b i l e s — Today and Tonorrov. G. A. n o f f m a n . N o v e m b e r 1962A d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e g e n e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s tics of modern a u t o m obiles. The presentday p a s s e n g e r ca r is a n a l y z e d i n t o its b a s i c c o m p o n e n t s ; a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n is established between each component and over-all vehicle weight. Future possibil it i e s in a u t o m o b i l e c o m p o n e n t s are examined, a n d the p r o b a b l e v e h i c l e s of t he 1970's are described. 9 1 pp. RH— 308 6 — FF A Hultiple Equation Model of H o u s e h o l d L o c a t i o n a l a n d Tripraaking Behavior. J. F. K a i n . A p r i l 19 6 2 . A d e s c r i p t i o n of a m u l t i p l e - e q u a t i o n m o d e l of h o u s e h o l d l o c a t i o n a l and t r ipmaking behavior. T h e a n a l y s i s is d e s i g n e d to e x p l o r e the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s in consumption between housing and trans portation. The multiple-equation recur sive model used is e s t i m a t e d by a p p l y i n g least-squares multiple regression tech n i q u e s to data o b t a i n e d froa the 1953 De troit Area T r a f f i c Study. 7 6 pp. RM-3099-FF D e c r e a s i n g T r a v e l Time for F r e e w a y Users. R. H. H a a s e . October 1962. A n i n v e s t i g a t i o n of p o s s i b l e m e t h o d s of i n c r e a s i n g t h e u s e of f r e e w a y s . The cri t e r i o n used is t h a t of m i n i m i z i n g t r a v e l time r a t h e r than m a x i m i z i n g flow. An i d e a l i z e d m o d e l of a t y p i c a l f r e e w a y t rip s h o w s t hat t r a v e l t i m e may be r e d u c e d by ma i n t a i n i n g the d e n s i t y of c a r s below a cr i tical level. T h i s c a n be a c c o m p l i s h e d b y r e s t r i c t i n g th e f l o w of c a r s o n t o t he f r e e w a y a n d by m a i n t a i n i n g o f f - r a m p c a p a c ity in excess of on-ramp capacity. Sug gestions are included for possible techni cal d e v e l o p m e n t s that may increase freeway utility. 3 2 pp. RH-3298-PF Hoffman. Blectric M o tor Cars. M a r c h - 1963. G. A. 334 -64- & study of e lectric a u t o m o b i l e s that are d e s i g n e d as the e q u i v a l e n t of their gasol i n e - e n g i n e c o u n t e r p a r t s in s i z e , c o m fort, perfor n a n r e , and initial a c c e l e r a tion. T o p spee d s c o m p a r a b l e to those of s a a l l p r e s e n t - d a y c a r s a r e s h o w n to be realizable, though the range between re f u e l i n g i s not. B a t t e r i e s a r e found to be a m o r e p r o m i s i n g p r o s p e c t f or s t o r i n g and d e l i v e r i n g ene r g y to the m o tor than f ue l c o l l s u s i n g i n e x p e n s i v e fuels. Since t h e u s e o f e l e c t r i c a u t o n o b i l e s w o u l d re d u c e not o n l y a i r p o l l u t i o n a n d n o i s e , b u t v e h i c l e c o s t s a s w e l l , it i s c o n c l u d e d that e l e c t r i c c ars could be substi t u t e d a d v a n t ageously for conventional cars for individual urban transportation. 61 p p . Population Growth. J. H. N i e d e r c o r n . O c t o b e r 1963. A d e s c r i p t i o n of a n e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l d e s i g n e d to e x p l a i n the g r o w t h of e m p l o y m e n t a n d p o p u l a t i o n i n 36 o f t h e n a t i o n ' s l a r g est m e t r o politan areas. The mode is f o r mulated, estim a t e d , and tested. Forecasts m a d e with it i n d i c a t e tha t p o p u l a t i o n and e m p l o y m e n t g r o w t h w i l l be r a p i d in m o s t of these areas. Central cities will beco m e i n c r e a s i n g l y s p e c i a l i z e d in w h i t e - c o l l a r employment, while blue-collar employment w i l l te n d to m o v e to t he s u b u r b s . In creased c o m muter traffic between the c en t r a l c i t y a n d i t s s u b u r b s is l i k e l y i n a m a j o r i t y o f t h e 36 m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s . 47 pp. RH-3664-1-FF Recent L a n d-use Trends in F o r t y - e i g h t L a r g e A m e r i c a n C i t i e s . J. H. N i e d e r c o r n , E. F. R. H e a r l e . S e p t e m b e r 1963. A n e x a m i n a t i o n of c h a n g e s in the p r o p o r t i o n s o f v a r i o u s t y p e s of l a n d in u r b a n use. A full set of the data regarding l a n d use, p o p u l a t i o n , a n d e m p l o y m e n t used in t h e a n a l y t i c a l p a r t of t h i s M e m o r a n d u m i s i n c l u d e d in t h e a p p e n d i x e s . The landu s e d a t a w e r e c o l l e c t e d f r o m the c i t y p l a n n i n g c o m m i s s i o n s of t h e 48 c i t i e s ; the e m p l o y m e n t and population data are e s t i m a t e s m a d e by t h e a u t h o r s . To their K n o w l e d g e , it i s t h e m o s t n e a r l y c o n p l e t e s e t o f s u c h d a t a in a s i n g l e p u b l i c a t i o n . 4 8 pp. RM-3904-RC T h e R a t e of C o m m e r c i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n in a C r o s s - s e c t i o n o f A m e r i can Cities, 1957-1958. J. L. B o w e r . D e c e m b e r 19 6 3 . D i s c u s s i o n of an e c o n o m e t r i c s t u d y o f i n v e s t m e n t in c o m m e r c i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n in the U n i t e d S t a t e s , 1957 a n d 1958. The M e m o r a n d u m d e v e l o p s a s t r u c t u r a l m o d e l of t he t w o p r i n c i p a l s e c t o r s of the coromercialconstruction industry (office buildings and r e t a i l s t o r e s ) an d f i t s t h e m o d e l to d a t a d e s c r i b i n g o f f i c e c o n t r u c t . i o n in 13 standard metropolitan statistical areas ( S M S A * s ) a n d s t o r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n 18 SMSA's. Several problems with the data, precluding a fully successful conclusion in a n y s t a t i s t i c a l sense, ar e d i s c u s s e d a n d s u g g e s t i o n s m a d e on h o w t h e y m i g h t b e r e s o l v e d in f u t u r e work. 42 pp. RM-3680-RC Urban Underground Highways and Parking Facilities. G. A. H o f f m a n . A u g u s t 1963. An e x a m i n a t i o n of the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r h i g h - v o l u m e a u t o m o t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n in t he c e n t r a l c i t y by d e e p u n d e r g r o u n d t u n nels and parking areas. T h e c o s t s of c on v e n t i o n a l urban surface highways and of underground highways are presented. One i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the data is that b e f o r e the end of th i s c e n t u r y , if t r e n d s c o n t i n u e , it. m i g h t b e c h e a p e r i n m a n y c i t i e s to move and park cars u n derground. S o m e d e s i g n a n d o p e r a t i n g f e a t u r e s of underground construction and travel are considered. The study c o n c l u d e s with e x a m p l e s of w h a t h i g h w a y n e e d s m i g h t b e if a l l t h e u s e r s of m a s s t r a n s i t s y s t e m s w e r e t r a n s f e r r e d to p a s s e n g e r c a r s in L o s A n g e l e s , C h i c a g o , an d M a n h a t t a n , a n d it offers some suggestions for future study a n d t e c h n i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f the u n d e r ground-highway concept. 5 6 pp. RH-3966-PC Performance of Land T r a n s portation Vehicles. P. H. H a a s e , S. H. T. H o l d e n . J a n u a r y 1964. This Memorandum examines certain l i m i t a tions, so m e p r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and n u m e r i c a l e x a m p l e s in d e v e l o p i n g e q u a t i o n s of m o t i o n f o r v a r i o u s v e h i c l e p r o pulsion systems. The main body o f the study c o n s i s t s of four a p pendixes: (A) an a n a l y s i s and s u m m a r y of p u b l i s h e d i n for m a t i o n o n v e h i c l e r e s i s t a n c e ; (B) a n a n a l ysis and s u m mary of publ i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e p r o p u l s i o n g e n e r a t e d by v a r i o u s t y p e s o f e n e r g y c o n v e r s i o n s y s t e m s ; (C) a c c e l e r a t i o n - s p e e d and time cu r v e s for v a r i o u s veh i c l e p r o p u l s i o n s ystems; and (D) e q u a t i o n s o f m o t i o n f o r t h e f o u r p h a s e s of a t y p i c a l t rip: accelerating, d e c e l e r a t i o n , t r a v e l i n g at c o n s t a n t v e l ocity, and r e maining stationary. 153 pp. Bibliog. R M - 3 7 5 8 — RC An I m p r o v e d E c o n o m e t r i c M o d e l of M e t r o p o l i t a n E m p l o y m e n t a nd RN-4035-RC M o d e l of Metr o p o l i s . Lowry. A u g u s t -196 4 . I. S. 335 -65- d e s c r i p t i o n of a c o m p u t e r m o d e l of t h e s p a t i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of h u m a n a c t i v i t i e s •ithin a metropolitan area. T h e m o d e l is I n t e n d e d as a dev i c e for e v a l u a t i n g the i m p a c t on m e t r o p o l i t a n form of publ i c d e cisions concerning urban renewal, tax policies, land-use controls, and trans p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s ; and for p r e d i c t i n g t h e e f f e c t s on m e t r o p o l i t a n form, o v e r t i m e , o f c h a n g e s in s u c h k e y v a r i a b l e s a s e m p l o y m e n t pat t e r n , e f f i c i e n c y of t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n sy st e m, an d the g r o w t h of population. This model has been fitted to data for Pittsburgh. 1 4 7 pp . Bibliog. k RH-4043-RC A M o d e l of R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d Values. E. F. B r i g h a m . A u g u s t 1964. P r e s e n t a t i o n o f t he f i n d i n g s of a p i l o t st u d y of the d e t e r m i n a n t s of res i d e n t i a l l a n d v a l u e s in a n u r b a n a r e a . The model re l a t e s land values to several diff e r e n t factors, p a r t i c u l a r l y to a s i te*s a m e n i ties and its accessibility to various forms of economic activity. 10 1 p p . Illus. B H — ft 1 2 5 - R C Metropolitan Populations t o 1985: Trial Projections. I. S. Lowry. S e p t e m b e r 1964. A s u m m a r y o f r e s u l t s of t w o s e r i e s o f demographic trial projections covering e a c h o f t h e 52 l a r g e s t s t a n d a r d m e t r o p o l i t a n s t a t i s t i c a l a r e a s ( S M S A ’s) in t h e United States. For e a c h SMSA, t he 1960 p o p u l a t i o n is d i v i d e d i n t o 60 c o m p o n e n t s ( age, by s e x a n d c o l o r ) . O n t h e b a s i s of e x p l i c i t a n d d e t a i l e d a s s u m p t i o n s (out lined in appendixes) as to birth, death, and migration, the size of each component is e s t i m a t e d at f i v e -year intervals, from 19 6 0 t o 1 9 8 5 . R e s u l t s a r e c o m p a r e d to n a t i o n a l p r o j e c t i o n s p r e p a r e d by t he B u reau of the Census, and to SHSA projections p r e p a r e d by v a r i o u s l o cal agencies. 8 8 pp . R H - 4 1 8 6 - RC The Impact of Urban Renewal on Land-use. E. F. R. H e a r l e , J. H. Kiedercorn. J u n e 1964. An e x a m i n a t i o n , u s i n g d a t a f r o m 2 9 7 u r b a n r e n e w a l p r o j e c t s i n 10 2 c i t i e s , o f c h a n g e s i n t h e m e a n p r o p o r t i o n s of l a n d in v a r i o u s uses, b efore and a f ter renewal. Within p r o j e c t areas, the m a j o r i m p a c t of r e n e w a l is to double the land area devoted to in d u s t r y a n d t o t r i p l e t h e a r e a u s e d f or public purposes. Residential area is sh a rply reduced, commercial area increased, a n d s t r e e t area left a b o u t the same. 3 5 pp . RH— 4 977-EDA Economic Viability and gional Development. S. S. H a n d e l . Re JLpril 1966. A scheme for identifying underdeveloped but v i a b l e e c o n o m i e s in w h i c h p u b l i c l y financed development programs have the g r e a t e s t p r o s p e c t s for s u c c e s s from bo t h the local and n ational points of view. An a r e a is c o n s i d e r e d d e v e l o p e d if a l l m e m bers of its population are able to earn a s m u c h a s p e o p l e of c o m p a r a b l e a b i l i t y e l s e w h e r e in t h e n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y , a n d if r e g i o n a l a g g r e g a t e w e l f a r e i s at a m a x i mum. A r e g i o n is c o n s i d e r e d e c o n o m i c a l l y v i a b l e if it c a n be d e v e l o p e d w i t h o u t e i t h e r p e r m a n e n t s u b s i d y o r l o s s of p o p u l a tion. For viab l e but u n d e r d e v e l o p e d re gions, the proper policy is to remove mar ket i m p e r f e c t i o n s and provide i n f r a s t r u c ture where equity conside r a t i o n s warrant or historical agglomeration patterns are inappropriate. For nonviable economies, t h e a l t e r n a t i v e t o p e r m a n e n t s u b s i d y is p o p u lation a d j u stment through new e d u c a tional techniques, i n f ormation and aid f o r a l t e r n a t i v e e m p l o y m e n t , a nd l o a n s on h u m a n c a p i t a l . , 2 7 pp. RH-4973-EDA Federal Loans to Private E n t e r p r i s e under the Eco n o m i c D e v e l o p me n t Act of 1965. I. S. L o w r y . April 1966. P r o c e d u r e s for e v a l u a t i n g p r o j e c t p r o p o s als s u b m itted to the E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t A g e n c y in t e r m s of t h e i r e f f e c t s on o t h e r e n t e r p r i s e s and on o t h e r c o m m u n i t i e s . An a n a l y s i s of the m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h e l i g i b l e f i r m s c a n be a s s i s t e d r e v e a l s t hat t h e n e t r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of e m p l o y m e n t in f a v o r of the r e d e v e l o p m e n t area will be min i m a l if the p r incipal c o m p e t i t o r s of t h e E D A - a s s i s t e d e n t e r p r i s e a r e l o c a t e d in the s a m e a rea. Negative i m p a c t s a r e l ess l i k e l y to f o c u s on on e o r a f e w c o m m u n i t i e s if p r o d u c e r s in t h i s mark e t are g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d i s p e r s e d and i f t h e m a r k e t d e m a n d f o r t h e p r o d u c t is expanding. Markets c h a r acterized by ex cess capacity are not generally attrac tive for new firms unless they have a significant cost-advantage over their predecessors. A p p l i c a n t s for EDA a s s i s t a n c e will s e l d o m be in t h i s p o s i t i o n . A q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s of the p o s s i b l e i m p a c t s o f E D A - a s s i s t e d v e n t u r e s on t h e sales and employment of competing firms and of the c o m m u n i t i e s w here t h e s e f i r m s a r e l o c a t e d is p r e s e n t e d . It is r e c o m m e n d e d t h a t E D A i n v e s t h e a v i l y in m a r k e t r e s e a r c h o n b e h a l f of a p p l i c a n t s f o r f e d e r a l a s s i s t a n c e t o e n t e r p r i s e s in r e d e v e l o p m e n t areas. 4 6 p p. Refs. RM-4979-EDA EDA. G. S. A p r i l 1966. Project Fishman, E v a l u a t i o n for D. A. F i t c h e t t . 336 -6 6 - A n e v a l u a t i o n m o d e l i s d e v e l o p e d to a s s i s t t h e E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n in a l l o c a t i n g r e s ources among requests for f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e from r e g i o n s in the Un i t e d Stat e s where high rates of unem ployment chronically exist. The « a j o r c r i t e r i a for a c c e p t i n g or r e j e c t i n g a p r o p o s e d p r o j e c t a r e t h e i n c r e a s e in f l o w o f f a a i l y i n c o m e in t h e a r e a b e c a u s e o f t h e p r o j e c t , t h e r a t i o o f t h i s i n c o m e in c r e a s e t o the c o s t of the p r o j e c t , a n d t h e p r o j e c t ’s i m p a c t o n u n e m p l o y m e n t . T i m e s t r e a m s of c o s t s and b e n e f i t s must be properly discounted. Once the propos als have been evaluated, three preference o r d e r i n g s can be made: the first, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e in f a m i l y i n c o m e at r e s p e c t i v e l e v e l s of c u r r e n t f a m ily income; second, t he benefit/cost, ratio; and t hird, the n u m b e r of j o b s c r e a t e d a nd the respective current unemployment rates of the applicants. Additional factors meriting consideration are project inter actions, community involvement and re s o u r c e fungibility, and the e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n v a l u e of s o m e proj e c t s . 28 pp. RM-4980-EDA C r i t e r i a for the L o c a t i o n of Federal ^pginnal Facilities. A. H. P a s c a l , N. E. H a u s n e r . A p r i l 19 6 6 . G u i d e l i n e s f or u s e in s e l e c t i n g l o c a t i o n s for Federal regional facilities. The s t udy deals particularly with the in c r e a s e s i n s y s t e m c o s t a t t r i b u t a b l e to e s t a b l i s h i n g a r e g i o n a l f a c i l i t y in a d e s ignated economic redevelopment area rather t h a n a t t h e m o s t e f f i c i e n t l o c a t i o n in t e r m s of o f f i c e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . As a c a s e s t u d y , t he c r i t e r i a d e v e l o p e d a r e a p p l i e d to t he l o c a t i o n p a t t e r n s of the Small Business Administration. Fairly well structured quantitative relationships s h o u l d be d e v e l o p e d in t h e f o l l o w i n g a r e a s : c o s t s of f a c i l i t y o p e r a t i o n s a s a f u n c t i o n of tra v e l and a c c e s s r e q u i r e m e n t s , local o f f i c e s p ace costs, and local labor costs; m e a s u r e s of t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f i n c r e m e n t s to th e local e c o n o m i c base as a f u n c t i o n of local e c onomic s t r u cture; and the e v a l u a t i o n of i m p a c t b e n e f i t s a s a f u n c t i o n of t h e p o l i c y - m a k e r ’s o b j e c t i v e s . In the ex a m p l e c h osen for detai l e d a n a lysis, the P a c i f i c C o a s t a l Area, t h e S m a l l B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n has made a re a s o n a b l e c h o i c e of field h e a d q u a r t e r s l o c a t i o n on c o s t - e ffective grounds; regional facilities s u c h as these, h o w e v e r , c o u l d m a k e a s i g nificant contribution to economic advance in depressed areas without substantially a f f e c t i n g agency costs. 84 pp. Refs. RH-5268-PR Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n in the 1970's: P r o b l e m s and O p p o r tunities. T. F . C a r t a i n o . J a n u a r y 19 6 8 . An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m s , a n d p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s , of c o m m e r c i a l air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n in t h e 1 9 7 0 ' s , w i t h e m p h a s i s o n s u b s o n i c p a s s e n g e r v e h i c l e s t h a t w i l l be i n o p e r a t i o n b y 1975. Major air transpor t a t i o n p r o b l e m s in t he 1 9 7 0 ' s w i l l be c e n t e r e d in a n d a r o u n d t h e t e r m i n a l a r e a s . A i r p o r t noise and the a d v e r s e r e a c t i o n s of adjacent communities are already serious. E c o n o m i c c o m p a r i s o n s of n e w a i r c r a f t t y p e s for domestic and international transport a r e m a d e on the b a s i s of a t h e o r e t i c a l fare, i.e., t he f a r e t h a t an a i r l i n e o p e r a t o r w o u l d h a v e t o c h a r g e to e a r n a g i v e n r a t e o f r e t u r n on h i s i n v e s t m e n t . Possible solutions include estab l i s h m e n t of regional air c e n t e r s away from m e t r o p o l i t a n areas; VTOL veh i c l e s for s h o r t - h a u l interc i t y , c ity-to-airport, and airport-to - a i r p o r t t r a n s p o r t ( 50-2 00 m i l e s ) ; a i r b u s s e s f o r m edium-haul transport (500-2000 m i l e s ) ; the s u b s o n i c s t r e t c h e d jet a n d j u m b o jet f o r d o m e s t i c l o n g - h a u l t r a n s p o r t (2500 miles). The s u b s o n i c s are c o m p e t i t i v e f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l o n g - h a u l t r a n s p o r t up to 4 0 0 0 miles; t h e j u m b o jet h a s a 6 0 0 0 mile full-load range. Technological ad vances i n c l u d e the s u p e r c r i t i c a l wing; e c o n o m i c a l m e t h o d s of using ti t a n i u m for lighter, safer airframes; and improved safety devices. 38 pp. RM-5503-HDD Recommendations for Re s e a r c h in S u p p o r t o f F e d e r a l O r b a n P r o grams. E d i t e d b y I. S. L o w r y . April 1968. RAND's recommendations for research re l a t e d t o p r o g r a m s of th e D e p a r t m e n t of H o u s i n g a n d U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t (HUD). P o l i c y i s s u e s and r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s a r e d i s c u s s e d in t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n t e x t s : (1) f u n c t i o n s o£ p r o g r a m a n a l y s i s within HOD; (2) m e t h o d s o f i m p r o v i n g t h e q u a l i t y o f u r b a n p l a n n i n g ; (3) i n c e n t i v e s f o r i n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l c o o p e r a t i o n ; (4) t h e M o d e l C i t i e s p r o g r a m ; (5) r a c e r e l a t i o n s i n f e d eral h ousing and d e v e l o p m e n t p r o grams; (6) h o u s i n g p r e f e r e n c e s a n d h o u s i n g w e l f a r e ; a n d (7) i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a r r i e r s t o reduced housing costs. 1 1 2 pp. R J1-5510 - R C T h e E c o n o m i c s of H o u s i n g Segregation. A. H- P a s c a l . November 1967. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e d e g r e e to w h i c h s o c i o e c o n o m i c factors, rather than racial prej udice, d e t e rmine o bserved n o n white r e s i d e n t i a l s e g r a t i o n in t h e C h i c a g o and D e t roit M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas. Multiple re g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e u sed to t e s t a s o c i o e c o n o m i c model, and i n t e n s i v e e x a m i nation of the r e s u l t s r e v eals that o nly a f r a c t i o n of o b s e r v e d s e g r e g a t i o n c a n be 337 -67- ■ e x p l a i n e d ” by s o c i o e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s . Ad d i t i o n a l t e s t s p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e of p r e j u d i c e in t h e w h i t e c o m m u n i t y - - e i t h e r a c t u a l or a n t i c i p a t e d — a s tble m a j o r c o n s t r a i n i n g f o r c e in t h e " u n e x p l a i n e d ” s e g r e g a t i o n . T h e i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t e f f o r t s to i m p r o v e n o n w h i t e s o c i o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s m u s t be c o n t i n u e d and that specific a n t i s e g r e g a t ion p r o g r a m s ha v e a r ole to play2 3 9 pp, Bibliog. RM-5603-RC C i t i e s in T r o u b l e : An A ge nd a for U r b a n R e s e a r c h . E d i t e d by A. H. P a s c a l ; S. G e n e n s X y , W. A. J o h n s o n , D. F. L o v e d a y , I. S. L o w r y , R. R o s e n k r a n z , D. tfeiler, C. T. W h i t e h e a d . A u g u s t 1968. An e x a m i n a t i o n of the p r o b l e m s of the c i ties and a proposed agenda for research in u r b a n h o u s i n g , e m p l o y m e n t , w e l f a r e , p u b l i c order, and health services. This s t u d y is t h e r e s u l t o f c o n t r i b u t i o n s p r e p a r e d by m e m b e r s o f t h e R A N D s t a f f f o l l o w ing a W o r k s h o p on Urban Probl e m s finan c e d by the Ford Foundation and The RAND Cor poration. L i t t l e s y s t e m a t i c d a t a on A m e r i c a n c i t i e s exist, a nd there is an i n a d e q u a t e c a t a l o g c\ p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s a nd of t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s that may r e s u l t f r o m t h e c h o i c e of p a r t i c u l a r a i t e r n a t i v e s . T h e u n s o l v e d p r o b l e m s of t h e c i t i e s a r e n o t l i k e l y to r e s p o n d to s u p e r f i c i a l a t tacks with limited resources. Solid ana l y t i c a l w o r k i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e to s u c c e s s ful programs. In t h e e f f o r t t o s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s o f t he c i t i e s , u n i v e r s i t i e s a n d private research organizations have a role t o p l a y in w o r k t h a t c u t s a c r o s s d i s c i p l i n a r y l i n e s — g a t h e r i n g d a t a in t h e f i e l d a s w e l l a s in t h e l i b r a r y , a n d m a i n t a i n i n g a n d r e n e w i n g an o p e n n e s s to ideas. Even t h e most e f f e c t i v e r e s e a r c h will not be e n o u g h t o s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s o f th e c i t i e s , b u t , w i t h o u t it, t h o s e p r o b l e m s w i l l n o t b e r e s o l v e d e v e n in p a r t . 166 pp. R H - 5 6 3 1 - DOT Putting the Analysis and Evaluation of T raffic Safety Measures into Perspective. H. V o h l . April 1968. An a p p r a i s a l o f t h e b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s of t r a f f i c s a f e t y m e a s u r e s , b o t h in a g g r e g a tive and d i f f e r e n t i a l terms. Operation a l l y , the t r a f f i c s a f e t y p r o b l e m is to d e t e r m i n e the a g g r e g a t e l e v e l s of benefit and cost a s s o c i a t e d with t he adopt i o n of s a f e t y meas u r e s and to determine who will b e n e f i t f r o m t h e s e m e a s u r e s and how much a n d who w i l l pa y f or t h e m a n d h ow much. An e x a m i n a t i o n of three s a f e t y m e a s u r e s — seat belts, s i d e-marker lights, and con t r o l s o n d r i n k i n g d r i v e r s — s h o w s t h a t (1) s a f e t y p e r se s h o u l d not b e v i e w e d in i s o l a t i o n ; (2) s o c i e t y s h o u l d n o t r e g a r d s a f e t y as a n e c e s s a r y g o o d r e g a r d l e s s of a l l e l s e ; (3) g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n o r c o n t r o l is n o t a l w a y s n e c e s s a r y a n d in s o m e c a s e s may ten d to u n d e r m i n e the p u b l i c w e l f a r e ; (4) t h e m e r e l a c k o f s a f e t y p r o g r e s s on the p a r t of the a u t o m o t i v e i n d u s t r y d o e s not i n d i c a t e a lack of p r o p e r m o t i v e s ; (5) e q u i t y i s s u e s s u r r o u n d t h e traffic safety problem. 51 p p . (See a l s o R H - 5 6 3 2 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 3 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 & - D O T , Rrt5 6 3 5 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 6 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 7 - DOT.) (BG) Rfl-5632-DOT A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Tra f f i c Safety System Measures. M . Wohl. A p r i l 1968. A d e s c r i p t i o n of a c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k for evaluating traffic safety system m e a s u r e s a n d a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e r e s e a r c h r e q u i r e d to m a k e the s y s t e m a n a l y s i s and evaluation framework operational. An e v a l u a t i o n of a t r a f f i c s a f e t y a c t i o n r e q u i r e s t h a t a v a l u e be p l a c e d on t he a d verse, beneficial, present and future e f f e c t s of the action. A benefit-cost a n a l y s i s r e v e a l s that the most e c o n o m i c a l l y w o r t h w h i l e p l a n w i l l be t h e o n e th a t has the hig h e s t n o n n e gative net present value. Six r e s e a r c h c a t e g o r i e s have been e s t a b l i s h e d to p r o v i d e a f o r m a t for a n a l y s i n g a m i e v a l u a t i n g s a f e t y actior.c: accident prediction; criticality predic tion; s e v e r i t y p r e d i c t i o n ; m a r k e t beh a v i o r ; c o s t a n d r e s o u r c e c o m m i t m e n t p r e d i c t i o n and valuation; and trav e l forecasting. Al though these c a t egories are not mutually e x c l u s i v e , they c o n f o r m to t h e c u r r e n t s t r a t i f i c a t i o n s of the t r a f f i c s a f e t y s y s tem a nd p r o v i d e a m e c h a n i s m for j u d g i n g worth, p r i o r i t y , and t i m e - s e q u e n c i n g of the research. 3 8 pp. ( See a l s o R M - 5 6 3 1 DOT, R M - 5 6 3 3-DOT, R M - 5 6 3 4 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 5 D O T , R M - 5 6 3 6 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 7 - D O T .) (LK) R M - 5 6 3 3 - DOT M o d e l i n g the T r a f f i c - S a f e ty S y s t e m . B. F. G o e l l e r . A p r i l 1968. A m o d e l for a n a l y z i n g t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s that r e l a t e s u n s a f e d r i v i n g to o p e r a t i o n al and e n v i r o n m e n t a l variables, the pro duc t i o n of i n j u r i e s and pro p e r t y damage, and the saf e t y m e a s u r e s that might r educe the i n c i d e n c e a n d s e v e r i t y o f a c c i d e n t s . An a c c i d e n t is c o n c e p t u a l i z e d as having three stages--pre-accident, intra-acci dent, and p o s t - a c c i d e n t — and a s p a s s i n g through a chain of phases, all physically o b s e rvable, with c l e a r c u t outc o m e s . Em p h a s i s is on th e p r e - a c c i d e n t s t a g e , w h i c h c o n s i s t s of four phases: predisposition, initiation, juxtaposition (confrontation with a h a z a r d ) , and evasion. The i n t r a accident stage c o n s i s t s of the first-col l i s i o n p h a s e ( i m p a c t on v e h i c l e ) an d s e c o n d - c o l l i s i o n p h a s e (impact on p a s s e n g e r s ) . For the p e r s o n s inv o l v e d , the p o s t - a c c i 338 -68- d e n t stage? r e s u l t s in i n i t i a l t r e a t m e n t , e m e r g e n c y transport, and primary t r eat ment. 75 pp. Refs. ( S e e a l s o R M - 5 6 31DOT, Rtt-5632-DOT, R M - 5 6 3 4 - D 0 T , R M - 5 6 3 5 DOT, R H - 5 6 3 6 - D 0 T , Rfl-5637-DOT.) (MW) RM-5634-D0T Vehicle Safety: Why the M a r k e t D i d N o t E n c o u r a g e I t a n d H o w It flight Be H a d e T o D o So. A. C a r l i n . A p r i l 1968. A n a n a l y s i s of t h e r e a s o n s w h y t h e m a r k e t m e c h a n i s m h a s no t p r o v e d e f f e c t i v e in p r o mot i n g veh i c l e safety and of pos s i b l e ways t hat m a r k e t f o r c e s m i g h t be u s e d to c r e a t e a g r e a t e r d e m a n d for s a f e t y in the future. Because consumers have shown little inter e s t in v e h i c l e s a f e t y f e a t u r e s a n d b e c a u s e m a n u f a c t u r e r s have found that safety d o e s n ’t s e l l , t h e m a r k e t h a s n o t o p e r a t e d to r a i s e s a f e t y s t a n d a r d s . This situation m i g h t b e c h a n g e d (1) b y i n c r e a s i n g t h e p u b l i c ' s a b i l i t y to d i s t i n g u i s h t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y o f d i f f e r e n t m o d e l s o f c a r s by e i t h e r a h i e r a r c h y of e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d F e d e r a l v e h i c l e s a f e t y s t a n d a r d s o r by d i r e c t c o m p a r i s o n s o r r a n k i n g of r e l a t i v e v e h i c l e s a f e t y o r (2) by c r e a t i n g g r e a t e r i n c e n t i v e s f o r t h e p u b l i c to d e m a n d s a f e r c a r s or to i n s t a l l an d use s a f e t y e q u i p m e n t . 2 8 p p. (See a l s o R K - 5 6 3 1 - D O T , R W - 5 6 3 2 D O T , R M - 5 63 3 - D O T , R H - 5 6 3 5 - D O T , Rfl-5636DOT, R M - 5 6 3 7 - D O T . ) (RG) RM-5635-DOT Alcohol and T raffic Acci dents. H. H. M i t c h e l l . A p r i l 196 8 . A c o l l e c t i o n of s t a t i s t i c s from s elected s t u d i e s sho w i n g the dr i n k i n g dr i v e r ' s in v o l v e m e n t in t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s , t h e r e l a tio n s h i p between blood alcohol levels and i m p a i r m e n t of d r i v i n g a b i l i t y , a n d the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f d r i n k i n g p a t t e r n s in a l c o h o l -implicated traffic accidents. Al c o h o l i s s h o w n to b e a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n t r a f f i c a cc idents, e s p e c i a l l y th o se in v o l v i n g s e r i o u s i n j u r y and death. Impair ment of d r i v i n g a b i l i t y is d e m o n s t r a t e d a t b l o o d l e v e l s of a l c o h c l b e l o w t h e l e g a l d e f i n i t i o n of i n t o x i c a t i o n , a n d t h e r i s k o f h a v i n g a n a c c i d e n t is s h o w n to i n c r e a s e a s b l o o d a l c o h o l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s rise. A b o u t 15 p e r c e n t of a l l a c c i d e n t s i n v o l v e a d r i v e r w i t h 50 m g m p e r c e n t b l o o d a l c o h o l c o n c e n t r a t i o n or higher. Other stud i e s s h o w t h a t a l c o h o l is p r o b a b l y a c a u s a l f a c t o r i n 50 p e r c e n t of t h e s i n g l e v e h i c l e fatalities. C o n trol m e a s u r e s need further s t u d y to p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n l e a d i n g to ■ore e f f e c t i v e h a n d l i n g of t h e d r u n k d r i v ing problem. 37 pp. (Se e a l s o R . 1 -5631D O T , R B - 5 6 3 2 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 3 - P O T , Rtt-5634DOT, R M - 5 6 3 6 - D 0 T , R M - 5 6 3 7 - D O T . ) (BG) RM-5636-DnT M e d i c a l P r o b l e m s and Phys i cal F i t n e s s a s R e l a t e d to O c c u r r e n c e of T r a f f i c A c c i d e n t s . H. H. M i t c h e l l . A p r i l 1968. A s u r v e y of the l i t e r a t u r e on m e d i c a l p r o b l em s and p h y s i c a l f i t n e s s as they r e l a t e to the o c c u r r e n c e of t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s . The publ i s h e d data do not p r o vide s u f f i c i e n t e v i d e n c e f o r a n e s t i m a t e to b e m a d e of the c o n t r i b u t i o n of v a r i o u s m e d i c a l c o n d i t i o n s to the a c c i d e n t r a te. There are also insjfficient quantitative studies t o f o r m a r a t i o n a l b a s i s for a c t i o n by r e g u l a t o r y a u t h o r i t y in c h a r g e of l i c e n sure for driving. If d o n e a t a l l , t h e c u r r e n t s c r e e n i n g of d r i v e r s b e f o r e l i c e n s u r e i s a p p a r e n t l y b a s e d on q u a l i t a t i v e m e d i c a l judgment. It is s u g gested that c o n t r o l l e d s t u d i e s be m a d e to e v a l u a t e the c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e a c c i d e n t p r o b l e m of t h e v a r i o u s m e d i c a l c o n d i t i o n s tha t m i g h t be s i g nificant, for example, epilepsy, diabetes, cardiac disease. These studies should de t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t on t h e a c c i d e n t r a t e o f removal of specified c a t e gories of d i s eased individuals. Particular attention s h o u l d be paid to the n u m b e r of l i c e n s e s t h a t w o u l d h a v e to be d e n i e d for e a c h category studied. 30 pp. Refs. (See a l s o R M - 5 6 3 1 - D O T , R;i-56 3 2 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 3 - D O ' T ’ , RT— 563U-DOT, RM-5635-DOT, RM-5537-DOT.) (LK) R M - 5 6 3 7 - D O ,T' Emergency Medical Care and T r a ffic Fatalities. H. R. M i t c h e l l . A p r i l 1968. A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f U .S. m i l i t a r y e m e r g e n c y m e d i c a l c a r e in o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a b a s i s for d e t e r mining how improved civilian e m e r g e n c y medical care might affect traffic-accident fatalities. Since data are l a c k i n g o n e m e r g e n c y c a r e of c i v i l i a n traumatic injuries, military records were s t u d i e d fo r i n f o r m a t i o n on the r e s u l t s to be e x p e c t e d for v a r i o u s t y p e s of t r a u m a in r e l a t i o n to t h e s k i l l a n d r e s o u r c e s a p p l i e d to t h e i r c a r e . E x a m i n a t i o n of traffic casualty doscriptions provided a s t a t i s t i c a l p i c t u r e of the t y p e s of i n j u r i e s tha t kill a c c i d e n t victims. By j u x t a posing the military ex p e r i e n c e and t r a f fic f a t a l i t y d e s c r i p t i o n s , s o m e i n s i g h t w a s g a i n e d i n t o the p o t e n t i a l for l o w e r i n g t r a f f i c - c a s e f a t a l i t y r a t e s in t e r m s o f resources. A l t h o u g h i m p r o v i n g the cas e f a t a l i t y r a t e s will be d i f f i c u l t , a signal d e v i c e c o u l d b e d e v i s e d to l o c a t e t h e a c c i d e n t , f o l l o w e d by h e l i c o p t e r o r a m b u l a n c e d i s p a t c h of t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l to t h e s c e n e to g i v e first aid to t h o s e w h o now d ie b e c a u s e of h e m o r r h a g e , r e s p i r a t o r y d i f f i c u l ty , e a r l y s h o c k , e t c . A triage system (for s t o r i n g an d c l a s s i f y i n g th e woun d e d ) c o u l d t h e n be us e d to s e n d the i n j u r e d to s pecial trauma centers. 37 pp. Refs. (Se e a l s o R M - 5 6 3 1 - D O T , R M - 5 6 3 2 - D O T , R H - 339 -69- 5 6 3 3 - D O T , R H - 5 6 34— D O T , R H - 5 6 3 5 - D O T , 5 6 3 6 “D O T . ) (BG) BM - BH-5673-NYC A Guide to Government A c t i v i t i e s in N ew Y o r k C i t y ' s H o u s i n g Markets. D. D r e y f u s s , J. H e n d r i c k s o n . H o v e m b e r 1968. A compr e h e n s i v e survey of government a c t i v i t i e s in N e w Y o r k C i t y ' s h o u s i n g m a r kets. T h e s tu d y c o v e r s 24 h o u s i n g pro g r a m s f u n d e d a n d a d m i n i s t e r e d by C i t y , State, and Federal governments, including land assembly and clearance, public owner s h i p and opera t i o n of h o using units, v a r i o u s f o r m s of a i d to p r i v a t e o w n e r s a nd developers, direct financial assistance t o c o n s u m e r s of h o u s i n g , r e g u l a t i o n of r e n t s , a n d e n f o r c e m e n t of c o n s t r u c t i o n and m a i n t e n a n c e standards. S o u r c e s of in f o r m a t i o n were reports published by HDA and i t s p r e d e c e s s o r agencies, the New York City Housing Auth o r i t y , the City Planning Commission, and the Bureau of the Budget; u n p u b l i s h e d data fr o m the f i l e s of t h e s e a g e n c i e s ; e x p e n d i t u r e r e c o r d s from the O f f i c e of t h e C i t y Com t r o l l e r a n d f r o m H D A ’s B u r e a u o f A u d i t a nd F i n a n c e ; r e p o r t s a n d r e c o r d s of the N e w Y o r k S t a t e D i v i s i o n of H o u s i n g a n d C o m m u n i t y Renewal and of the Federal Housing Administration. Annual outputs and expenditures for each program are c o m p i l e d for the p e riod 1963-1967. These d a t a are u sed to c o m p i l e a b a s e c a s e of o u t p u t s and e x p e n d i t u r e s for fiscal 19671 9 6 8 as a b e n c h m a r k f o r p r o g r a m b u d g e t i n g f or f u t u r e years. 1 3 2 pp. (HJP) BM-5726— NYC T h e S e r v i c e F a c i l i t i e s of t h e B u r e a u of Fire C o m m u n i c a t i o n s : A Cost An a l y s i s of a P r o p o s e d C o n s o l i d a tion. G. S. L e v e n s o n , A. J. T e n z e r . S e p t e m b e r 1 968. A n a n a l y s i s of a p r o p o s e d c o n s o l i d a t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n t h e B u r e a u of F i r e C o m m u n i c a t i o n s of the C i t y of N ew Y o r k in t e r m s of the c o s t b e n e f i t s t h a t m i g h t be o b t a i n e d by c o n s o l i d a t i n g t h e 11 f a c i l i t i e s in Brooklyn, Bronx, Manhattan, and Queens that are now used for engineering, i n s t a l l a tion, m a i n t e n a n c e , a nd r e p a i r of the F ire D e p a r t m e n t ' s fire alarm s y stem and radio equipment. Consolidation of facilities offers these benefits: (1) c l o s e r s u p e r v i s i o n by r e d u c i n g t h e a r e a t o b e c o n t r o l l e d ; (2) m o r e f l e x i b l e w o r k s c h e d u l i n g b e c a u s e o f c e n t r a l i z e d m a n a g e m e n t of r e s o u r c e s ; (3) t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m f o r n e w e m p l o y e e s at the c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n ; (4) a m o r e e f f i c i e n t u s e o f r e s o u r c e s ; (5) a g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t y f o r e c o n o m y in p r o c u r e m e n t a n d s t o r a g e ; a n d (6) t he h i g h e r m o r a l e a m o n g p e r s o n n e l that mod ern facilities induce. To tran s l a t e these b e n e f i t s into quanti t a t i v e terms, co s t s w e r e d i v i d e d in t o the c a t e g o r i e s of i n v e s t me n t a n d o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o v e r a p e r i o d of 5 years, and a base case e s t a b l i s h e d a g a i n s t w h ich t he c o s t s of s i x a l t e r n a t i v e ^ were compared. T h e a n a l y s i s s h o w s that e f f i c i e n c y w o u l d n e e d to be i n c r e a s e d by o n l y 6 p e r c e n t f o r the 5 - y e a r c o s t s of c o n s o l i d a t i o n to e g u a l t h e 5 - y e a r c o s t s of t h e p r e s e n t o p e r a t i o n . If efficiency c o u l d b e i n c r e a s e d b y 15 p e r c e n t t h r o u g h c o n s o l i d a t i o n , a s a v i n g s of $ 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 per year would result. 40 pp. (LK) RM-5739-0E0 An A n a l y s i s of P o v e r t y : A Suggested Methodology. J. J. M c C a l l . O c t o b e r 1968. A d e s c r i p t i o n of two m o d e l s of the i n c i dence, persistence, and con t r o l of p o v e r ty. T h e f i r s t is b a s i c a l l y p r o b a b i l i s t i c a n d u s e s the t h e o r y of M a r k o v p r o c e s s e s to d e s c r i b e m o v e m e n t s i n t o a n d o u t o f poverty. The s e c o n d i s n o r m a t i v e and e v a l u a t e s a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s for a l l e v i a t ing poverty. The d e s c r i p t i v e model per mits several important hypotheses about p o v e r t y to be i n v e s t i g a t e d : (1) the a d e q u a c y o f a M a r k o v i a n m o d a l in d e s c r i b i n g i n c o m e m o b i l i t y ; (2) the differences of the same age and b e t w e e n N e g r o e s and C a u c a s i a n s o f t h e s a m e a g e ; (3) the e f f e c t o f t h e b u s i n e s s c y c l e on i n c o m e m o b i l i t y a n d i t s d i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t on N e g r o e s and Caucasians. T h e o b j e c t i v e of the n o r m a t i v e m o d e l i s to c h o o s e a c o m b i n a t i o n of c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s t h a t y i e l d s the m ost desirable transition matrix. Tvo p olicy va r i a b l e s are considered: expenditures on t r a i n i n g a n d on i n c o m e m a i n t e n a n e e . With a fixed budget for poverty a l l e v i a t i o n , t h e o b j e c t i v e is to a l l o c a t e f u n d s b e t w e e n t h e t w o v a r i a b l e s so a s t o m i n i m i z e t h e n u m b e r o f p e o p l e in p o v e r t y . Several other criteria are also investi gated, and methods for a c h i eving optimal a l l o c a t i o n s are o u t lined. 3 5 pp. Refs. (See a l s o R M - 5 7 4 1 - O E O . ) (MJP) RM-57UO-OEO E m p l o y e r s and M a n p o w e r T r aining Programs: Data C o l l e c t i o n and Analysis. D. H. G r e e n b e r g . Octo b e r 1968. An i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e a d v a n t a g e s a nd d i s a d v a n t a g e s of c o l l e c t i n g d a t a on g r a d uates of m a n p o w e r train i n g p r o g r a m s from the firms that e m p l o y them, and an e v a l u a t i o n of f o u r l o c a l t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s : on-the-job training, Opportunities Indus t r i a l i z a t i o n C e n t e r , S o u t h C e n t r a l I.os Angeles Youth Training and Employment Project, and East Los A n g e l e s You t h T r a i n ing and E m p l o y m e n t Project. The a nalysis doe s not show a c l e a r - c u t a d v a n t a g e for 340 -70- any one program. If s u c c e s s is m e a s u r e d i n t e r m s of w a g e s , h o w e v e r , t r a i n e e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h on-*-the- j o b t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s ha v e boon relatively more s uccessful. The e a p l o y o r a p p r o a c h to f o l l o w - u p on g r a d u a t e s of m a n p o w e r t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s y i e l d s i n e x p e n s i v e b u t r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d lata. F u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m s w e r e e n c o u n t e r e d in d e v e l o p i n g m e a n i n g f u l m e a s u r e s of s uc c e s s and in c o p i n g wi t h c o l l i n e a r i t y a m o n g s ets of i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . These problems and a p p r o a c h e s that c a n c o n t r i b u t e to their solution are discussed. 37 pp. (LK) RM-5741-OFO M a n p o w e r P r o g r a m s as Markov Chains. E. P. D u r b i n . October 1 96 8. A d i s c u s s i o n o f how m a n p o w e r t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s c a n be d e s c r i b e d a s M a r k o v p r o c e s s e s a n d o f t h e u t i l i t y of s u c h a c o n c e p t u a l dcscrijition. A l t h o u g h p r o g r a m s may hav e the s a m e name and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e t h e y m a y be v e r y d i f f e r e n t in o p e r a t i o n and e f f e c t i v e n e s s . Markov chains provide a s i m p l e # s a t i s f a c t o r y way of d e s c r i b i n g differences between programs. In d e s c r i b i n g t h e d y n a m i c s of a t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m b y a M a r k o v ch a i n , the p r o g r a m is v i e w e d as a s e t o f t r a n s i t i o n s f r o m o n e s t a t e to a n o t her. Programs t y pically consist of a f i n i t e n u m b e r of p r o g r e s s i o n l e v e l s a n d o u t c o m e s that can serve as the state d e scriptors: (1) n o s e r v i c e , (2) i n t a k e , (.3) c o u n s e l i n g o n l y , (4) i n - t r a i n i n g , a n d (5) e m p l o y m e n t . While movement of people from one state to a n o t h e r o ccurs c o n t i n u a l l y , it i s p o s s i b l e t o r e v i e w a p r o g r a m o n l y p e r i o d i c a l l y (sa y o n c e e a c h m o n t h ) and d e t e r m i n e for each s t a t e the p r o p o r t i o n of p e o p l e who ha v e m o v e d to a n o t h e r state. T h e mov e m e n t r a t e s m a y d i f f e r g r e a t l y for d i f f e r e n t p r o g r a m s e v e n though r e s o u r c e and p e r s o n n e l a l l o c a t i o n s are similar. By c o m p u t i n g t h e n u m e r i c a l t r a n s i t i o n r a t e s b e t w e e n c a t e g o r i e s in p r o grams, significant interprogram differ e n c e s and s i m i l a r i t i e s b e c o m e a p p a r e n t and t h e r e a s o n s fo r t h e m c a n be f u r t h e r e x plored. 17 pp. Refs. (See a l s o R M - 5 7 3 9 OEO.) (MW) SM-57U3-OEO Evaluating Federal Man power Programs: N o t e s and O b s e r v a tions. T. K. G l e n n a n , Jr . September 1969. A d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e u s e o f e v a l u a t i o n s of m a n p o w e r t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s b y 0 E 0 in p l a n ning and policymaking. T h e e x p e r i e n c e of past and present manpower programs should b e a v a l u a b l e s o u r c e of d a t a to g u i d e t he d e v e l o p m e n t and p l a n n i n g of f u t u r e p r o grams. T h e m a j o r p r o b l e m to be o v e r c o m e in a n e v a l u a t i o n of p r o g r a m i m p a c t is finding a reference or c o n t r o l group with w h i c h t o c o m p a r e t h e w o r k e x p e r i e n c e s of the p r o gram enrollees. E v e n if s u c h a g r o u p is found, the r e s u l t s of e v a l u a t i o n s c a n n o t b e c o m p a r e d b e c a u s e of i n consistent analytical assumptions. Sug g e s t e d m e a s u r e s for i m p r o v i n g the r e l e vance and u s efulness of e v a l u a t i o n s are (1) t o u s e l o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d y d e s i g n s , (2) t o m a k e n e w p r o g r a m s mo; experimen t a l , (3) t o e s t a b l i s h a n a l y t i c c o n v e n tions for conducting b e nefit-cost studies, (4) t o i m p r o v e i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s a t t h e l o c a l l e v e l , a n d (5) t o i n c r e a s e c o o p e r a tion between e v a l u a t o r s and polic y m a k e r s . 5 5 pp. Bibliog. (CD) RM-5745-OEO E c o n o m i c s of I n f o r m a t i o n and Job Search. J. J. M c C a l l . Novem b e r 1968. T w o m o d e l s o f an e m p l o y e e ’s s e a r c h f o r work, using some r e s u l t s from the t h e o r y of o p t i m a l s t o p p i n g r u l e s . Included are an o p t i m a l s e a r c h p o l i c y for a s i m p l e m o d e l of t h e s e a r c h p r o c e s s , a m o r e g e n e r a l m o d e l of u n e m p l o y m e n t (which c o n s i d e r s the a n t i c i p a t e d p e r i o d of e m p l o y m e n t as we l l a s the wa g e r a t e as f a c t o r s in the d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s ) , a n d an a d a p t i v e s e a r c h p o l i c y ( w h i c h r e s u l t s f r o m r e v i s i o n s i n the s e a r c h e r ' s i m p e r f e c t k n o w l e d g e of h i s w a g e rate distribution). The distinction be tween hardcore and f r i c tional u n e m p l o y m e n t a nd t h e e f f e c t s of v a r i o u s p o l i c i e s to r e duce unemployment are interpreted within t he f r a m e w o r k o f t h e s i m p l e m o d e l . It is s h o w n t h a t a m i n i m u m w a g e law has no e f f e c t on the f r i c t i o n a l l y u n e m p l o y e d . 30 p p . Refs. (CC) RM-5746-OEO Appraising Selected Man p o w e r T r a i n i n g P r o g r a m s in the Los A n g e l e s Area. L. P. H o l l i d a y . April 1969. A s u m m a r y of the p r i n c i p a l t h e o r e t i c a l and e m p i r i c a l f i n d i n g s of R a n d s t u d i e s f o r t h e O f f i c e o f E c o n o m i c O p p o r t u n i t y on m a n p o w e r p r o g r a m s in t h e L o s A n g e l e s a r e a with s u g g e s t i o n s a nd r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s for the d e s i g n of f u t u r e m a n p o w e r p r o g r a m s . T he e m p h a s i s is on the p r o b l e m s of d e vising a m e thodology for e v a l u a t i n g man power programs. Future evaluation ef f o r t s s h o u l d s e e k f i n d i n g s r e l a t e d to program d e c i s i o n s and should d e v elop new methodologies, data systems, and criteria for future e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s . O n e of t h e f i v e d a t a s y s t e m s e x a m i n e d , t h e " E x t e n s i o n Zero*' s y s t e m , a p p e a r s t o have potential for supporting local d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a n d , if w i d e l y u s e d , n a t i o n al e v a l u a t i v e analysis. Some of the r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e to c o n d u c t a l o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d y , t o seek- l o w - c o s t s o u r c e s o f 341 -71- f o l l o w - u p d a t a for e v a l u a t i o n , t o c o n sider c o m p u t e r - b a s e d inf o r m a t i o n systems, t o f o c u s j o b d e v e l o p m e n t on p r o m i s i n g firms, to d evelop stan d a r d s for costb e n e f i t s t u d i e s , and to e x a m i n e youth p r o g r a m goals. In a d d i t i o n , t h e s t u d y suggests two demonst r a t i o n projects: a computer-based, rea c t i v e data system sim i l a r t o '’E x t e n s i o n Z e r o " a n d a n e x p e r i mental manpower project using the ex p e r i e n c e g a i n e d to d a t e . 4 1 pp. (Se e RM-57 39-OEO, RM-574 0 - O E O , RH-5741-OEO, RM-5745-OEO.) (MJP) RH-5815-PA Alternative Development S t r a t e g i e s for Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n in the New York Region, 1970-1980. H. S. C a m p b e l l , A. C a r l i n , S. L. K a t t e n , T. F. K i r k w o o d , D. M. L a n d i , R. E. P a r k , L. R o e n n a u , A. J. R o l f e . August 1969. A n o v e r v i e w of s o m e p o s s i b l e a v e n u e s o f d e v e l o p m e n t f o r N e w Y o r k ’s a i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m from now u n t i l 1980. Three w a y s o f a d d i n g t o t h e s y s t e m ’s c a p a c i t y are investigated: (1) c o n t i n u i n g t o o p e r a t e m a i n l y f r o m t he p r e s e n t t h r e e a i r p o r t s i t e s ; (2) d e v e l o p i n g n e w c a p a c i t y f o r t h e short- and medium-leng t h - o f - t r i p market; a n d (3) c o n s t r u c t i n g a f o u r t h m a j o r a i r p o r t 40 o r 50 m i l e s f r o m M a n h a t t a n . The t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e c o m p a r e d in terras of major investment outlays, time phasing of capa c i t y additions, and vuln e r a b i l i t y to for e c a s t errors. The analysis indi c a t e s that e x p a n s i o n in the n e x t s e v e r a l y e a r s w ill be l i m i t e d to the t y p e e n v i s i o n e d by t h e V / S T O L s y s t e m , e . g . , c r e a t i o n of a m a j o r S T O L p o r t n e a r m i d - M a n hattan. If a p r o g r a m o f p e r i p h e r a l a nd V/STOT. a i r p o r t s c a n b e d e v e l o p e d t o s e r v e a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f a i r t r a v e l in t h e area, t h e ne e d for a f o u r t h a i r p o r t may be d e l a y e d . H o w e v e r , i t m a y be w i s e to a c q u i r e o w n e r s h i p or c o n t r o l of a s i t e as soon as possible. 84 pp. Fefs. (See also F M - 5816, RM-5817, RM-5818, RM-5319.) (CC) RM-5816-PA T h e P o t e n t i a l of V / S T O L A i r c r a f t f o r P a s s e n g e r T r a v e l in t h e New York Region. T. F. K i r k w o o d , S. L. K a t t e n . A u g u s t 1969. C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the use of V / S T O L a i r c r a f t to r e d u c e a i r t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n at t h e m a j o r N o w Y o r k a r e a a i r p o r t s w h i l e incre a s i n g overall terminal capacity. T h r e e t i m e p e r i o d s — 1970, 1975, a n d 1 9 8 0 — are considered; for each period c o m p a r i sons are drawn between forecast V/STOL and conventional aircraft. Calculations i n d i c a t e that, w h i l e V / S T O L c a n a t t r a c t o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of t h e s h o r t h a u l m a r k e t in t h e e a r l y p e r i o d s , b y 1 9 8 0 a do w ntown V/3T0L port might a t t r a c t 10,000 p a s s e n g e r s a day. It w i l l b e n e c e s s a r y t o s e g r e g a t e V/STOL and c o n v e n t i o n a l o p e r a tions. Also V/STOL could substantially r e d u c e a c c e s s t i m e to f u t u r e p e r i p h e r a l airports. H owever, the i n t r o d u c t i o n of V / S T O L in N e w Y o r k m a y d e p e n d o n h o w m a n y o t h e r a r e a s f i n d s i m i l a r a d v a n t a g e s in t h e i r u s e or on a g o v e r n r a e n t - s u b s i d i z e d d e v elopment program. 9 2 pp. Refs. (S o p also RM-5815, RM-5817, RM-5818, RM-5819.) (CC) RM-5817-PA The E fficient Use of A i r p o r t R u n w a y C a p a c i t y in a T i m e of S c a r city. A. C a r l i n , R. E. P a r k . August 1969. An e x a m i n a t i o n of th e e x t e n t and n a t u r e of the a i r p l a n e d e lay pro b l e m and a l t e r n a t i v e s h o r t - t e r m p o l i c i e s to i n c r e a s e the e f f i c i e n c y of r u n w a y use. Relevant data, m a i n l y f rom the t h r e e m a j o r New Y o r k a i r p o r t s for the p e r i o d A p r i l 1967 t h r o u g h M a r c h 1 9 6 8 , a r e i n v e s t i g a t e d a n d a simple* q u e u e i n g m o d e l is p r e s e n t e d . Calculations show total delays during the o n e - y e a r pe r i o d o f 3 . 3 m i l l i o n m i n u t e s a t K e n n e d y , .9 m i l l i o n a t L a G u a r d i a , a n d .7 m i l l i o n at Newark. E f f i c i e n c y c o u l d be i m p r o v e d by a s y s t e m of p r o p o r t i o n a l m a r g i n a l co s t p r i c i n g , which wou l d c h a n g e the b a s i s for r u n w a y u s e f e e s f r o m a i r c r a f t weight, t o h o u r of day, and by a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e a s u r e s i n v o l v i n g e l i m i n a t i o n of some or all gener al a v i a t i o n . A c o m b i n a t i o n of t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s w o u l d be ev e n m o r e e f f i c i e n t , as wo u l d a p o l i c y of i s s u i n g s h o r t - t e r m p e r m i t s d u r i n g p a r t i c u l a r h o u r s a c c o r d i n g to use. 2 6 5 pp. (Se e a l s o R K - 5 S 1 5 , Rtf-5816, R M - 5 8 18, R M - 5 8 19.) (CC) RM-5818-PA A M o d e l and C o m p u t e r C o d e for S tudying A l t e r n a t i v e Air P a s s e n g e r Processing Strategies. D. 1. L a n d i , A. J. R o l f e . A u g u s t 1969. D e s c r i p t i o n of a m e t h o d f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s of a l t e r n a t i v e a i r p o r t l o c a tions, pa s s e n g e r ter m i n a l locations, and m a s s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s i n v o l v e d in p r o c e s s i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r s to t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n s in a l a r g e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . Data i n p u t s to t h e m o d e l a r e t h e n o d e s a n d a r c s of a r o a d t r a v e l - t i m e or t r a v e l - c o s t n e t work, the l o c a t i o n s of p a s s e n g e r t e r m i n a l s in t h e n e t w o r k , t h e t i m e s or c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h d e s t i n a t i o n s e r v e d by e a c h t e r m i n a l , a n d t h e v o l u m e s of p a s s e n g e r trips from population centroids. The p r o g r a m , w r i t t e n in F O R T R A N T V f o r t h e I B r 7044, is a p p e n d e d . It c o m p u t e s v o l u m e s of p a s s e n g e r t r i p s p r o c e s s e d by e a c h t e r minal for each trip orig i n an d the a v e r a g e p a s s e n g e r t rip t i m e s o r c o s t s for e a c h t e r m i n a l a n d f o r t h e entire' s y s t e m . It 342 -72- can a l s o l o c a t e p a s s e n g e r t e r m i n a l s or a i r p o r t s that, m i n i m i z e t h e o v e r a l l a v e r a g e trip time or cost. 7fl pp. Refs. (See also RM-5815, RM-5816, RM-5817, RM-5819.) (CC) RM-5819-PA Systems for Air Tr a n s p o r t a tion S e r v i n g the New Yor k M e t r o p o l i t a n Area, 1970-1980. H. S. C a m p b e l l , D. ML a n d i , A. J. R o l f e . A u g u s t 1969. D e s c r i p t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f the costs, b e n e f i t s , a n d o p e r a t i o n a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of a l t e r n a t i v e enl a r g e d air tr a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s for the New Y o r k region, i n c l u d i n g (1) e x p a n d i n g p r e s e n t c a p a c i t y o f t h e m a j o r a i r p o r t s , (2) e x p a n d i n g s h o r t - h a u l s e r v i c e u s i n g V / S T O L a i r c r a f t , a n d (3) b u i l d i n g a fourth major airport. A n a l y s i s s h o w s the V / S T O L s y s t e m to b e s u p e r i o r , p r o v i d i n g g r e a t e s t p a s s e n g e r t r i p - t i m e b e n e f i t s at t h e l o w e s t cost, w ith a n e s t i m a t e d $25m illion per year a d v a n t a g e over the other two systems. V/STOL could also be effec t i v e in t h e i n t e r i m r e q u i r e d f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of th e o t h e r plans, s i n c e b o t h re q u i r e l e a d t i m e s of s e v e r a l years. Addi t i o n a l p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d with the o t h e r s y s t e m s a r e (1) i n c r e a s i n g p r e s e n t c a p a c i t y w o u l d l e a d to s e v e r e g r o u n d a c c e s s p r o b l e m s a t K e n n e d y , a n d (2) t h e d i s t a n c e of the fourth airport from Manhattan would r e q u i r e high-s p e e d rail c o n n e c t i o n s and air s h u t t l e service. 7 5 pp. Refs. (See also RM-5815, RM-5816, RM-5817, FM-5818.) (CC) RH-5846-NYC A p p l y i n g t h e C o n c e p t s of P r o g r a m B u d g e t i n g to t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y Police Department. A. J. T e n z e r , J. B. B e n t o n , C. T e n g . J u n e 196 9. A d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s of a 9 - m o n t h e f f o r t to develop a p r o g r a m - b u d g e t i n g s y s tem for the New York Police Department. The Memorandum presents a detailed dis c u s s i o n of t he p r o g r a m b u d g e t f o r m a t , i n c l u d i n g not only the p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e a n d c o s t s t r u c t u r e , b u t a l s o t he t e c h n i q u e s d e v i s e d to e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t of p o l i c e programs. It a l s o d e s c r i b e s a c o m p u t e r i z e d cost model designed for ana lyzing police department services. Pro grammed for Pand ' s JOSS system, the model w a s d e v e l o p e d by u s i n g t h e c o s t f a c t o r s and cost-estimating techniques presented in t h e s t a d y . I n g e n e r a l , t h e m o d e l d e s c r i b e s a s y s t e m ( s o m e p a r t of t h e p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e ) in t e r m s of i t s o p e r a t i o n s and the r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d to per form them. The output presents static c o s t s tha t can be used to a n a l y z e the e f f e c t of p o s s i b l e c h a n g e s in e q u i p m e n t d e s i g n a n d in s y s t e m o p e r a t i o n on t o t a l syst e m cost. 6 5 pp. (MJP) RM-5865-DOT Assessing Alternative T r a n s portation Systems. J. P. M i l l e r . A p r i l 1969. A d e s c r i p t i o n of an e x p l i c i t , l o g i c a l l y c o n s i s t e n t , an d r e p l i c a b l e p r o c e d u r e to a id in e v a l u a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r tation systems. It i s a s s u m e d t h a t a de c ision c o n text has been s p ecified and that a fix e d set of d i s c r e t e a l t e r n a t i v e s has been produced. ^ h o p r o c e d u r e to a i d in the a s s e s s m e n t and d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s is q u a n t i t a t i v e t h r o u g h o u t a n d r e l i e s he a v i l y on s u b j e c t i v e i n p u t s from r e sponsible decisionmaking personnel. The m a j o r t h e s i s of th e p r o c e d u r e is th a t a s s e s s m e n t and final c h o i c e must depend on s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s , b u t that a s y s t e m a t i c and q u a n t i t a t i v e m e t h o d of making such judgments proves quite help fu l . R e s u l t s d r a w n frorr: a n e x p e r i m e n t th a t was p e r f o r m e d to test t h e p r o c e d u r e (in a s i m p l e r , n o n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n t e x t ) s u p p o r t this view. T h i s s t u d y is o n e o f t h r e e (se e R M - 5 8 6 8 a n d R M - 5 3 7 7 ) d e a l i n g wi t h t e c h n i q u e s f or a n a l y s i s of m u l t i di m e n s i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s and c o n t r i b u t i n g to an o v e r a l l r e s e a r c h e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o w a r d d e v e l o p m e n t of c o m p r e h e n s i v e a n d s y s t e m a t i c m e t h o d o l o g y for e v a l u a t i n g the p o t e n t i a l u t i l i t y of a l t e r n a t i v e transportation proposals. 176 pp. Bibliog. (MJP) RM-5869-DOT M e asurement and Evaluation of T r a n s p o r t a t i o n System E f f e c t iveness. F. S. P a r d e e , T. F. K i r k w o o d , K . P. H a c C r i m m o n , J. R. M i l l e r , C. T. P h i l l i p s , J. W. R a n f t l , K. V. S m i t h , D. K. W h i t c o m b . S e p t e m b e r 1969. O n e in a s e r i e s o f s t u d i e s p r e p a r e d f o r the N o r t h e a s t C o r r i d o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Project, this work concen t r a t e s p r i n c i p a l l y on t h e p r o b l e m s o f (1) i d e n t i f y i n g h i e r a r c h i c a l s t r u c t u r e s in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n analysis, (2) m e a s u r i n g a t t r i b u t e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and its impact on usprs, o p e r a t o r s a n d s o c i e t y , a n d (3) d e v e l o p i n g s p e c i f i c techn i q u e s for c o m b ining a t t r i bute measures. M e a s u r e s a re d e s i g n e d to d e f i n e the i n t e r f a c e b e t w e e n f e a t u r e s of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n d e m a n d e d a n d t h e techbologica1 alternatives proposed to s u p p l y this ser v i c e . In e f f e c t , a choice among alternative system changes c a n b e m a d e by i n c o r p o r a t i n g l a t a i n t o a cost-benefit or system analytic framework fo r a s p e c i f i e d b u d g e t i n c r e m e n t , a nd then testing various mode mixes. Examples i l l u s t r a t e the p r o p o s e d t e c h n i q u e s . 4 7 8 pp. Refs. (See a l s o F M - 5 B 6 5 , RM-5868, RM-5873, RM-5874, RM-5877.) (KF) 343 -73- RH-5873-DOT S a f e t y in T r a n s p o r t a t i o n : T h e R o l e of G o v e r n m e n t , L a w , a n d I n s u r ance. L. B- L a v e . A p r i l 19 6 9 . A n a n a l y s i s o f h o w ati o p t i n a l l e v e l o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a f e t y c a n be a c h i e v e d in t e r m s of v a r i o u s r o l e s o f c u r r e n t i n s t i tutions. Transportation safety results f r o m t h e i n t e r a c t i o n of p a s s e n g e r s , g o v e r n m e n t , law , a n d i n s u r a n c e . The unique r o l e e a c h p l a y s in o p t i m i z i n g s a f e t y i s i n v e s t i g a t e d w i t h the u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e of i d e n t i f y i n g th e role of g o v e r n m e n t and r e g u l a t i o n in a c c o m p l i s h i n g s o c i e t y * s s a f e t y goals. W h i l e l i a b i l i t y laws and i n s u r a n c e have w e l l - d e f i n e d roles in o p timizing transportation safety, govern m e n t is s o m e t h i n g of a r e s i d u a l c l a i m a n t . D e p e n d i n g on th e p a r t i c u l a r c i r c u m s t a n ces, g o v e r n m e n t mig h t be c a l l e d up o n t o d o n o t h i n g or to s e t t l e e v e r y t h i n g by fiat. It i s r e a s o n a b l e t o a s s e r t t h a t whenever there are important deviations f r o m o p t i m a l s a f e t y , government, h a s s o m e o b l i g a t i o n to f i n d a w ay of c o r r e c t i n g the s i tuation. T h e s o l u t i o n s o p e n to g o v e r n m e n t t ake three basic forms: help p e r f e c t t h e m a r k e t d i r e c t l y , c r e a t e in s t i t u t i o n s to p e r f e c t t h e m a r k e t , o r c o r r e c t t h e d e v i a t i o n by fiat. H Q pp. (KB) tion Planning. K. P. K a c C r i m m o n . A p r i l 1969. A des c r i p t i o n of two methods of a n a l y z i n g m u l t i - d i m e n s i o n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s in t h e d e s i g n a n d e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s , a p p l i e d in t h e c o n t e x t of f u t u r e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t ems for the Northeast Corridor. The first m e t h o d de v e l o p s and e x h i b i t s f e a s i b l e / a c c e p t a b l e r a n g e s of v a l u e s for use in r e d u c i n g the c o m p l e x i t y of a p o t e n t i a l selection process. The second method u t i l i z e s a n i n d i f f e r e n c e a n a l y s i s or t r a d e o f f a p proach to improve u n d e r s t a n d ing of t he r e l a t i o n s h i p a m o n g a t t r i b u t e s a s v i e w e d by v a r i o u s u s e r , o p e r a t o r , a n d s o c ietal groups. Tradeoff curves are s h o w n i n t e r m s of b o t h e q u a l p r e f e r e n c e a n d e q u a l b u d g e t f o r v a r i o u s m i x e s of technical possibilities. When these two f a m i l i e s of c u r v e s a re c o n s i d e r e d t o g e th e r t h e y p r o v i d e a l i n e of o p t i m a l d e sign which can h i g h l i g h t a s p e c i f i c s y s tem d e s i g n goal. T h i s p o r t r a y a l of the i n t e r a c t i o n between e v a l u a t i o n and design c o n s i d e r a t i o n s c a n be h e l p f u l t h r o u g h o u t the process of design improvement. 40 pp. Bibliog. (See a l s o R M - 5 8 6 5 , RM-5868.) (MJP) RH-5874-DOT Transportation, City Size and Conge s t i o n Tolls. L. B. L a v e . A p r i l 1969. P r e l i m i n a r y m o d e l s of c i t y c e n t e r s pe r mi t the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of v a r i o u s f a c t o r s re l at i n g to t r ansportation: rent patterns, l o c a t i o n a l choice, c h o i c e of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n mode, and l o c a t i o n a n d t r a n s p o r t a tion externalities. A relatively simple m o d e l o f a ci t y c e n t e r is t a k e n as th e s tarting point. In the model, all land o u t s i d e t he ci t y c e n t e r is a l l o c a t e d to h o u s i n g ; c o s t a n d t ime r e q u i r e d to t r a v e l to t h e c e n t e r a r e p r o p o r t i o n a l to d i s M-5891-u e o Youth and Work: Toward a H o d e l of L i f e t i m e E c o n o m i c P r o s p e c t s . S. J. C a r r o l l , A. H. P a s c a l . April 1969. A n a n a l y s i s o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l i s s u e s in r e s e a r c h on y o u t h e m p l o y m e n t e m b o d i e d i n a general, dynamic model c o n s i s t i n g of a system of s i m u l t a n e o u s equations. The m o d e l i s b a s e d on t h e p r e s u m p t i o n t h a t a youth's economic prospects are a conse quence of three sets of inter a c t i n g vari ables, summarized as experience, per c e p tions, and opportunities. E q u a l i t y of e c o n o m i c o p p o r t u n i t y is, e s s e n t i a l l y , a long-run concept. T he e x t e n t to w h ich an i n d i v i d u a l s u f f e r s f r o m i n e q u a l i t i e s in tance. economic k A measure of the benefit of an opportunity depends on his econo i m p r o v e m e n t in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s m a d e i n t e r m s o f c h a n g e s in c o s t o f t r a v e l a n d l a n d rent. Subsequent complications are a d d e d to t h e m o d e l in o r d e r t o r e f l e c t transportation-related problems. Among t h e s e a re t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n of rich and poor with two transport modes, t h e p r o b l e m of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n g e s t i o n , a n d t h e q u e s t i o n of t h e o p t i m a l d e g r e e of d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n *•w h e n e c o n o m i e s o f s c a l e a n d f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t b e t w e e n a n u m b e r of city ce n t e r s are assumed. 5 3 pp. Bibliog. (KB) m i c p r o s p e c t s at v a r i o u s p o i n t s i n t i m e . T h e r e f o r e , the r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n b e h a v i o r at a p o i n t in t i m e a n d o p p o r t u n i t y o v e r time are developed. The model e x a m i n e s a n u m b e r of p h e n o m e n a t h a t h a v e b e e n o f f e r e d a s e x p l a n a t i o n s of the u n s a t i s f a c t ory e c o n o m i c f u t u r e c o n f r o n t i n g lovincome urban youth. The i m p l i cations for policy anal y s i s and program evalu a t i o n are e x p l o r e d at length. Research priorities are s u g g e s t e d and data a v a i l a b i l i t y and requirements are discussed. 6 2 pp. Bibliog. (HJP) RM-5 877-DOT Improving the System D e sign and E v a l u a t i o n P r o cess by the Use of T r a d e - O f f I n f o r m a t i o n : An A p p l i c a tion to Northeast C o r r i d o r T r a n s p o r t a RH-5903-SJS An E v a l u a t i o n D e s i g n f o r S a n J o s e U n i f i e d S c h o o l D i s t r i c t ’s Compensatory Education Program. M . L. R a p p , G. L. Brun.ner, E. M. S c h e u e r . 344 -74- M a y 196 9 . & d e s i g n for t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e S a n Jose Unified School D i strict's compen satory education program, which serves primarily Mexican-American children. The n a j o r o b j e c t i v e of the e v a l u a t i o n is to o b t a i n a d e q u a t e i n f o r m a t i o n for planning, d e s i g n i n g , and i m p l e m e n t i n g f u t u r e p r o grams. Dat a w i l l be g a t h e r e d on t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e c u r r e n t p r o g r a m on t h e a c a d e m i c p e r f o r m a n c e a n d a t t i t u d e s of the p a r t i c i p a n t s ; a s u r v e y will g a t h e r a d d i t i o n a l b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e f a m i l i a l a n d c u l t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e s t u d e n t s in t h e p r o g r a m . Information on s t u d e n t a c h i e v e m e n t w i l l b e a s s e s s e d by regr e s s i o n analysis. D ata on a t t i t u d e an d a t t i t u d e c h a n g e , as d e t e r m i n e d by b ot h sc h o o l - and b a c k g r o u n d - r e l a t e d f a c t o r s , w i l l be m e a s u r e d u s i n g c r o s s - t a b u lar analysis. D i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t s of p r o g r a m c o m p o n e n t s a n d c o m b i n a t i o n s of c o m p o n e n t s will be s o u g h t at e a c h g r a d e l e v e l , i n a d d i t i o n to a s s e s s i n g t h e o v e r a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n o f p r o g r a m c o m p o n e n t s to student achievement. 1 24 pp. Refs. (CC) RM-6014-RC M o d e l s of S e g r e g a t i o n . T. C. S c h e l l i n g . M a y 19 6 9 . T w o t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l s a r e d e v e l o p e d to e x a m i n e the individual i ncentives and p e r c e p t i o n s of d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n p e o p l e t h a t c a n lead, c o l l e c t i v e l y , to t he se g r e g a t i o n o f v a r i o u s s u b - p o p u l a t i o n s. T h e m o d e l s a l s o c l a r i f y t h e e x t e n t to w h i c h i n f e r e n c e s c a n be d r a w n from the p h e n o m e n o n of c o l l e c t i v e s e g r e g a t i o n a b o u t the p r e f e r e n c e s of i n d i v i d u a l s , the s t r e n g t h s of t h o s e p r e f e r e n c e s , a n d the f a c i l i t i e s for e x e r c i s i n g t h e m . The f i r s t of t h e s e t w o c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l s is a si m u l a t i o n model that d i s t r i b u t e s in d i v i d u a l s w i t h i n a n a r e a in a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s a b o u t the c o m p o s i tion of the neighborhood. The variables a r e t h e r a t i o of the t w o r a c e s in the p o p u l a t i o n , the d e m a n d s for n e i g h b o r s l i k e o n e s e l f , an d the s i z e of the n e i g h b o r h o o d w i t h i n w h i c h an i n d i v i d u a l ’s p r e f e r e nces operate. T h e s e c o n d model, w h i c h is a n a l y t i c a l , e x a m i n e s t h e q u e s tions: W h a t d i s t r i b u t i o n of c o l o r t o l e r a n c e s a m o n g the p o p u l a t i o n m a y b e c o m p a t ible with dynamically st a b l e mixtures? What e f f e c t will the i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s a n d t h e d y n a m i c s of m o v e m e n t h a v e o n t h e outcome? What k i n d s of n u m e r i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s might a l t e r the r e s u l t s ? U s e of t h e f o r m a l m o d e l to e x a m i n e t h e p h e n o m e non of n e i g h b o r h o o d t i p p i n g d o e s not r e veal any important d i s c o n t i n u i t y n e c e s s a r i l y o c c u r r i n g at t h e c o m m o n l y a c c e p t e d t o l e r a n c e v a l u e of 20 p e r c e n t b l a c k . 89 pp. (HJP) Rn-6041-PC/O^O Statistical Problems i n A s s e s s i n g R a c i a l D i s p a r i t i e s in Income. S. B. C o l e m a n . N o v e m b e r 196**. T he p r o b l e m of d e t e r m i n i n g i n c o m e i n e q u a l i t i e s b e t w e e n w h i t e s a n d n o n w h i t e s in t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s is p ut i n t o a f r a m e w o r k of statistical inference which includes con s i d e r a t i o n o f p r o b l e m s of n e a s u r e m e n t of variables and interpretation. Advantages and d i s a d v a n t a g e s of s e v e r a l m e a s u r e s of income inequality— income differences, in c o m e rati o s , " y e a r s b e h i n d , " and r a t i o s of p r o p o r t i o n s — a r e w e i g h e d in t h i s f r a m e w o r k r e s u l t i n g in a c h o i c e o f i n c o m e r a t i o s a s t h e m o s t m e a n i n g f u l m e a s u r e of i n e q u a l ity in t e r m s of a c o m p a r i s o n of w h i t e and nonwhite income distribution. Four crite ria a r e a p p l i e d in m a k i n g t h i s c h o i c e : (1) T h e m e a s u r e m u s t r e f l e c t t h e e n t i r e i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n , and not just some summary statistic. (2) I t s h o u l d a s s i g n d e g r e e of i n e q u a l i t y in a m a n n e r c o n s i s t e n t with i n d i v i d u a l u t i l i t y for income. (3) I t s h o u l d d i r e c t l y a d d r e s s c u r r e n t as well as past i nequalities. (4) T h e v a l u e t h e m e a s u r e t a k e s s h o u l d not b e d e p e n d e n t on t h e y e a r fo r w h i c h an i n e q u a l i t y is b e i n g m e a s u r e d , s i n c e v a l u e s f o r d i f f e r e n t y e a r s m u s t b e c o m p a r e d in m e a s u r i n g c h a n g e s o v e r time. A formula is w o r k e d out for t a k i n g s a m p l i n g e r r o r s into account. £J 2 pp. Refs. (See a l s o RH-6125.) (TC) RM-606 9-RC T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s in Urban Development. H. S. D o r d i c k , L. G. C h e s l e r , S. I. F i r s t m a n , P. Bretz. J u l y 1969. W a y s in w hich t e l e v i s i o n can be u s e d to i m p r o v e life in the urb a n ghetto. A sur v e y , m a d e in L o s A n g e l e s a n d N e w O r l e a n s , in d i c a t e s that the failure to c o m m u n i c a t e c ommunity i n f o r mation within the ghetto and b e t w e e n the g h e t t o and n e i g h b o r i n g c o m m u n i t i e s is l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e for t he i s o l a t i o n of g h e t t o r e s i d e n t s a n d f o r t h e i r i n a b i l i t y to e n t e r i n t o the e c o n o m i c mainstream. Television, as a familiar and r e l a t i v e l y t r u s t e d medium, has a g r e a t p o t e n t i a l f o r c o m m u n i c a t i n g m a n y t y p e s of information. T h i s s t u d y c o n s i d e r s t h e ro.lp of t e l e v i s i o n in t h r e e m a j o r a r e a s of education: preschool; e l e m e n t a r y and s e c o n d a r y ; and adult. The m a j o r c o n c l u sion is t h a t one or m o r e p i l o t p r o j e c t s s h o u l d be i m p l e m e n t e d t o a s s e s s t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s r e q u i r e d to p r o d u c e and b r o a d c a s t these p ro grams, p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s of f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t , a n d d e g r e e of p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e a nd use. The pro j e c t would in c l u d e two S o u t h C e n t r a l L o s A n g e l e s c o m m u n i t i e s an d w o u l d p r o v i d e p r o g r a m s on jo b i n f o r m a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i ties, c i t y hall news, and c u l t u r a l e v e n t s . 1 92 p p. Refs. Bibliog. (MJP) 345 -75- R8—6 133-OEO An A n a l y s i s o f P o v e r t y : Some Preliminary FindingsJ- J. HcC&ll• De c e a b e r 1969. S t a t i s t i c s o n r a c o , fcge, s e x , a n d e s t i a a t e d a n n u a l i n c o m e up to $ 4 5 0 0 f o r 8 3 6 , 0 0 0 A n e r i c a n s in t h e p e r i o d 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 6 5 were processed using a probabilistic model to d e t e rmine patterns of income mobility. R e s u l t s s h o w e d th a t d u r i n g th i s p e r i o d of sustained economic growth non-white males c l o s e to t h e p o v e r t y l i n e ( m o s t o f w h o m were blacks) b e n e f i t e d more from e x panded job opportunity than their white counter parts. H o w e v e r , a n o t h e r l a r g e n u m b e r of blacks, the hard-core poor, remained aired in poverty. Findings suggest that while u p w a r d m o b i l i t y m a y w e l l be l i n k e d to a r i s e in t h e G N P , a n d w h i l e m a t u r e b l a c k ■ale w o r k e r s a r e m o r e s e n s i t i v e t o t h e b u s i n e s s cycle than many of their white c o u n t e r p a r t s , t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n g r o u p s in s o c i e t y t h a t r e m a i n u n a f f e c t e d by e c o n o m i c growth. 5 3 pp. Refs. (See a l s o R H - 5 7 3 9 OEO.) (TC) RH-6162-OEO Racial Discrimination in the Job Market: T h e R o l e of I n f o r m a tion and Search. J. J. M c C a l l . Janu a r y 1 970. k theo r y of the value of d i s c r i m i n a t i o n in t h e j o b m a r k e t a s a f u n c t i o n of t h e b u s i n e s s c y c l e , b a s e d on e l e m e n t a r y m o d e l s of e c o n o m i c b e h a v i o r in which, a m o n g o t h e r things, employer uncertainty about employee c a p a c i t y t o p r o d u c e is i n c o r p o r a t e d . A favorable economic environment is assumed t o i n d u c e e m p l o y e r s t o e n g a g e in h i r i n g e x periments, which, if they prove f a v o r able, may e l i m i n a t e race as a scree n i n g d evice when labor markets become less tight. If valid, the h y p o t h e s i s i m p l i e s t h a t d i s c r i m i n a t i o n by e m p l o y e r s — and by t h e n o n - w h i t e p o o r in t h e i r job s e a r c h — i s e x p l i c a b l e on p u r e l y e c o n o m i c g r o u n d s and t h a t a tight labor market could cause b o t h g r o u p s to a l t e r b e l i e f s t h a t g i v e r i s e to d i s c r i m i n a t o r y p r a c t i c e s . 3 7 pp. Ref. (TC) RM— 619 0 — NYC R e n t a l H o u s i n g in N e w Y o r k C i t y , V o l u m e I: C o n f r o n t i n g the Crisis. E d i t e d b y I. S. L o w r y . Feb r u a r y 1 9 70. Summarizes a projected five-volume study by t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y - R a n d I n s t i t u t e of the City ' s rental housing market. The study concludes that the current crisis i n r e n t a l h o u s i n g - - m a n i f e s t e d in an e x t r e m e l y low vac a n c y rate, rapid d e t e r i o r a tion of the stock, a b a n d o n m e n t of rent a l p r o perty by its owners, and increasing friction between landlords and tenants— is p r i m a r i l y d u e to a g r o w i n g d i s p a r i t y b e t w e e n r e n t a l r e v e n u e s a n d t h e c o s t s of supplying rental housing. Revenues are c o n s t r a i n e d b o t h by r e n t c o n t r o l a n d b y low-incoae tenancy. Present City programs of regulation, assist a n c e , and d irect in t e r v e n t i o n are i n c a p a b l e of c o r r e c t i n g this basic c o st-revenue imbalance. The s t u d y p r o p o s e s (1) r e n t c o n t r o l c h a n g e s , (2) r e n t a s s i s t a n c e f o r l o w - i n c o n e f a m i l i e s , (3) c o d e e n f o r c e m e n t r e f o r m s , (4) c l i n i c a l t r e a t m e n t of p r o b l e m b u i l d i n g s , (5) p r o m p t a c q u i s i t i o n o f c e r t a i n t y p e s o f d e l i n q u e n t b u i l d i n g s , a n d (6) a n e x p e r imental program assisting community groups to a c q u i r e r e n t a l h o u s i n g f o r n o n p r o f i t or c o o p e r a t i v e management. 49 pp. (A u thor) RH-6236 Working With a C i t y G o v e r n ment. P. L. S z a n t o n . J a n u a r y 19 7 0 . A l o o k at the e v o l u t i o n of R a n d r e s e a r c h o n u r b a n p r o b l e m s in N e w Y o r k C ity. Since i n i t i a l c o n t r a c t s for a h a n d f u l of s t u d i e s w e r e s i g n e d i n J a n u a r y 19 6 8 , i n v o l v e m e n t w i t h s u b s t a n t i v e c i t y p r o b l e m s h a s l e d to c reation of The New York C i t y -Rand Insti tute, a n o n p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n w i t h i t s own b o a r d of t r u s t e e s a nd 85 p r o f e s s i o n a l a n a l y s t s a t w o r k on m o r e t h a n 40 s e p a r a t e studies for 9 city agencies. I n t h i s RM. o r i g i n a l l y d e l i v e r e d a s an a d d r e s s b e f o r e the N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y of E n g ineering, the author examines the link between researcher and d e c i s i o n m a k e r , the i n t r i c a t e p r o c e s s of i n v o l v i n g m u n i c i p a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s as p a r t i c i p a n t s in t h e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t to e n a b l e t hem to make the best, most c r e a t i v e use of m o d e r n a n a l y t i c t e c h n i q u e s . The results: the f i r s t a t t e m p t by a m a j o r city g o v e r n m e n t and a r esearch institution to e s t a b l i s h a c e n t e r for the c o n t i n u i n g a p p l i c a t i o n of s c i e n c e and a n a l y t i c t e c h n i q u e s to p r o b l e m s of u r b a n l i f e a n d l o c a l government. 0 pp. (TC) RM-6253-RC Some Models of Racial Dis c r i m i n a t i o n in t h e L a b o r M a r k e t . K. J. Arrow. F e b r u a r y 1971. P a r t of a Rand s t u d y on t he m e a s u r e m e n t of r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n in t h e e c o n o m i c sphere. Although neoclassical theory can offer a coh e r e n t and p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n of the i m p a c t of r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a n d a c c o u n t s in a g r o s s w a y f o r t h e k n o w n facts, some p r o blems remain. This memo randum describes a s imple model by which an e m p l o y e r can p u r c h a s e b l a c k l a b o r at a fixed price; for this labor he must choose s o m e p o i n t on an i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e b e t w e e n w a g e s a n d t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f w h i t e s in t h e firm. The implications--no wage differen t i a l s on the o n e h a n d a n d s e g r e g a t i o n on t he o t h e r — a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y c o n t r a r y to and h a r m onious with observation. Thus, there is a f a i l u r e of c o n v e x i t y — e x t r e m e a l t e r 346 -76- na t ives aro preferred to compromises. T e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s o f t h e m o d e l is p r e s e n t e d in n o t e s f o l l o w i n g t h e text.. This m e m o r a n d u m is b e i n g a d a p t e d f o r i n c l u s i o n in a f o r t hcoming Rand book, Th e A m e r i c a n E c o n o m y in 3 l a c k anil W h i t e ; A s s a y s on R a c e D i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n E c o n o m i c L i f e. 6 0 pp. (KR) RM-6255-DOT A n a l y s i s of I n t e r c i t y Transport Improvements: Forecasting Dema n d and Evaluating User Benefits. Z. F. L a n s d o v n e . Ma y 1970. O n e o f a s e r i e s of m e m o r a n d a d e v e l o p i n g p r o c e d u r e s for e v a l u a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e transportation proposals. T his s t u d y de vises a method for analyzing prospective m o d i f i c a t i o n s of intercity facilities. C u r r e n t m o d e l s for p r e d i c t i n g t r a v e l d e mands deal with neither new transportation m o d e s n o r m a j o r i m p r o v e m e n t s in e x i s t i n g inodes. The proposed intercity travel model a s s u m e s that the user c h o o s e s among modes a c c o r d i n g to t h e i r a t t r i b u t e s - - e . g . , t r a v e l c o s t , time, an d s a f e t y - - a n d s e l e c t s the r o u t e t h a t m a x i m i z e s h i s t r i p ’s u t i l i t y . A ne w m o d e may be i n t r o d u c e d by s p e c i f y i n g its attributes. In the p r o p o s e d u s e r - b e n e fit model, the b e nefits recei v e d from t r a n s p o r t i m p r o v e m e n t s a r e m e a s u r e d in d o l l a r s and aro a g g r e g a t e d over all origindestina t i o n - p o i n t pairs and time periods. 8 5 p p. Ref. (See a l s o R M - 5 8 6 9 . ) (LC) RM-6273-OEO T h e E f f e c t s of M i n i m u m W a g e s on t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C h a n g e s in A g g r e g a t e E m p l o y n e n t . M_ K o s t e r s , F. R. W e l c h . S e p t e m b e r 1970. A n a l y z e s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s i n a g g r e g a t e e m p l o y m e n t i n t h e U.S . b e t w e e n n o n w h i t e s and whites, mal e s and fem a l e s , a n d t e e n a g e r s a n d a d u l t s in t h e p e r i o d 1954-1968. T he m a r k e d i m p r o v e m e n t of the i n c o m e p o s i t i o n of n o n w h i t e s m a y be p a r t l y a t t r i b u t a b l e to t h e s u s t a i n e d e c o n o m i c e x p a n s i o n of the e a r l y 1960s and thus s u b j e c t to r a p i d e r o s i o n a s e x p a n s i o n s l o w s o r is r e v e r s e d . N o n w h i t e s (except for ad u l t females) are d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y a f f e c t e d by employment, f l u c t u a t i o n s . Teen a g e r s a r e most h e a v i l y a f f e c t e d by s h o r t term employment changes: males more than females, non w h i t e s more than whites. Ef fective minimun-wage increases have made t e e n a g e r s m o r e v u l n e r a b l e t h a n b e f o r e to s h o r t - t e r m changes, and have decreased t h e i r s h a r e of n o r m a l e m p l o y m e n t , p a r t i c ularly nonwhite teenagers. The a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s that s l a c kening economic growth wi l l a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t nonwhit.es and n o n white teenagers. 3 2 pp. (DGS) P I - 6 3 2 4 - DOT* ( V o l u m e 1) M e a s u r e m e n t and Evaluation of Alternative R e g i o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Mixes: V o l u m e I, S u m mary. F. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s , K. V. S m i t h . A u g u s t 1 9 70. O v e r v i e w of a c o m p r e h e n s i v e m e t h o d o l o g y a n d e v a l u a t i v e procedure for a n a l y z i n g po t e n tial b e n e fits, r a t h e r than cos t , of a l t e r native transportation proposals. Attention is d i r e c t e d t o w a r d i n v e s t i g a t i n g the im p a c t o v e r t i m e o f m i x e s of m o d e s r a t h e r than s i ngle transpo r t a t i o n systems. Since t h e s c o n e of t h e p l a n s i s r e g i o n a l , e m p h a s i s is o n i n t e r c i t y t r a v e l . A set of o b j e c t i v e s and p o l i c y o p t i o n s i s d e v e l o p e d to a s s e s s the c o n t r i b u t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s to the g o a l s of a region. User and so c i e tal a n a l y s e s predict b e n e f i t s and are p e r form e d by i d e n t i f y i n g , me a s u r i n g , and c o m b i n i n g a t t r i b u t e s of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n m i x e s of m o d e s b e i n g e v a l u a t e d . An a g g r e g a t i o n is also m a d e o v e r the n e t w o r k and region as a whole. User and s o c i e t a l benef i t s are combi n e d with ope r a t o r b e n e fits, w h i c h may be v i e w e d as c o n s t r a i n t s to b e s a t i s f i e d to p r o d u c e an i n f o r m a t i o n p a c k a g e for e ach a l ternative. This in f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e s t r a d e o f f d a t a to t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p lanner, f e e d b a c k to the s y s t e m des i g n , and f o r m s a b a s i s for s e n sitivity analyses. 53 pp. Ref. (See a l s o R M - 6 3 2 4 , V o l u m e II a n d I I I . ) (KB) R K - 6 3 2 4 - D O T ( V o l u m e 2) M e a s u r e m e n t and E v a l u a t i o n of A l t e r n a t i v e R e g i o n a l Transpo r t a t i o n Mixes: V o l u m e II , M e t h odology. F. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s , K. V. S m i t h . A u g u s t 19 7 0 . C u r r e n t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e in a g i v e n r e g i o n c a n be v i e w e d as a mix of h a r d w a r e sys t e m s or modes oper a t i n g over a network of l i n k s . C h a n g e s in t h e c u r r e n t m i x o c c u r a s a r e s u l t of r e v i s i o n s in p r i c i n g , r o u t e structure, scheduling changes, and t e c h nological changes. C h a n g e s o c c u r at d i f f e r e n t l i n k s o f t h e n e t w o r k a n d in d i f ferent time periods. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the r e g i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t i t s e l f , s u c h as p o p u l a t i o n o r i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , can also c h a n g e over time. This memorandum d e v e l o p s a m e t h o d o l o g y for e v a l u a t i n g the p o t e n t i a l b e n e f i t of a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r c i t y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o p o s a l s for a r e g i o n . M e t h o d s of m e a s u r e m e n t i n c l u d e o r d e r i n g a ? attribute, p e r f o r m a n c e s c a l e s , d i r e c t a s s i g n m e n t of w o r t h e s t i m a t e s , t h e d o l l a r wo r t h s u m mary, v a r i o u s t e c h n i q u e s for a s s i g n i n g w e i g h t s to a t t r i b u t e s , and the use of i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e s . Information de r iv ed from using t h e s e m e t h o d s can be p r e s e n t e d in a c o n d e n s e d f o r m s o t h a t d e c i s i o n s c a n be m ade using s u f f i c i e n t , but not excessive, a m o unts of data. 140 pp. Ref. (See a l s o R M - 6 3 2 4 , V o l u m e s I a n d III.) (K 9) 347 -77- H M - 6 3 2 Q - D O T ( V o l u m e 3) M e a s u r e m e n t and Evaluation of Alternative Regional T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Mixes: V o l u m e III, Ex ample. P. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s , K. V. S m i t h . A u g u s t 1970. I l l u s t r a t i o n of the a p p l i c a t i o n of a d e t a i l e d m e t h o d o l o g y for e v a l u a t i n g c h a n g e s t o an e x i s t i n g mix of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n modes. T h e s e t t i n g f o r t h e e x a m p l e is a g e o g r a p h i cal r e g i o n that is part of the Nor t h e a s t C o r r i d o r of the U.S. Two alternative en v i r o n m e n t s and three alternative transpor t a t i o n m i x e s a r e s p e c i f i e d for the r e g i o n o ver the time p eriod 1970-2000. Popula t i o n s in t h e r e g i o n ' s c i t i e s and d i s t r i but i o n s within these citi e s are assuaed for each environment. Separate evaluations a r e p e r f o r m e d to d e t e r m i n e b o t h u s e r a n d societal benefits. 151 p p . Ref. {See a l s o R M - 6 3 2 4 , V o l u m e s I a n d II.) (KB) RM-6339-NYC Planning Public Expendi tu r e s on M ental Heal t h S e r v i c e Delivery. F. A. S l o a n . F e b r u a r y 1 971. k n e c o n o m i c analysis of mental health services, expecially community centers, p r e p a r e d f or N Y C p o l i c y m a k e r s ' use. De l i v e r y of m e n t a l h e a l t h s e r v i c e s m a y be i m p r o v e d by r e f i n i n g e x i s t i n g m a r k e t sochanissoM ore e f f o r t u<m be ndue t o i m p r o v e c o n s u m e r k n o w l e d g e by m e ans of publications describing service alterna t ive s , w i t h o u t m a j o r use of p u b l i c funds. C o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s can d e m o n s t r a t e the r e l a t i v e w o r t h of p r o g r a m s , but e f f i c i e n c y an a l y s i s based on production-function a n a l y s i s , e v e n e v a l u a t i o n of o u t p u t e f f e c t i v e n e s s , i s f o r the f u t u r e , b e c a u s e p rer e q u i s i t e data are lacking. A pilot st u d y was c o n d ucted at two community mental health centers. It d e m o n s t r a t e s that persons with widely different educa t i o n a l b a c k g r o u n d p e r f o r m the same f u n c tion; inputs are highly substitutable; diseconomies of scale exist; reduction in t h e s e v e r a l s o u r c e s of i n e f f i c i e n t p r o d u c t i o n u n r e l a t e d to s c a l e w o u l d m e a n operational cost savings; personnel-patient r a t i o s oust c h a n g e m a r k e d l y to a l ter d irect patient care; and patient contact c o s t s m o r e in s o m e c o m m u n i t y m e n t a l h e a l t h c e n t e r s than in private p s y c h iatric pra c tice. 131 pp. Bibliog. (SM) t r a f f i c c a s e s p r o c e s s e d in 1967. Numbers of d e f e n d a n t s at e a c h s t a g e a r e s h o w n , as w e l l a s the m e t h o d by w h i c h e a c h e s t i m a t e was derived. R e f i n ements and ex t e n s i o n s of the research are suggested that would provide a more complete picture of court o p e r a t i o n s f o r u s e in a l l o c a t i n g c o u r t resources, identifying bo t t l e n e c k s and o p e r a t i o n a l problems, and e x a m i n i n g the i n teractions between the court and other agencies. Difficulties encountered under s c o r e the nee d f o r an o v e r h a u l of t h e e n tire information system: s t a t i s t i c s re ported by various agencies are incompati ble, s t a t i s t i c s in r e p o r t s a g g r e g a t e physically distinct operations, procedures are not uniform, and s t a t i s t i c a l report preparation means long delays3 8 pp. Ref. (See a l s o R-638.) (SM) RH-6366-RC T w o M o d e l s of t h e U r b a n Crisis: An A n a l y t i c a l E s s a y o n B a n f i e l d and Forrester. H. A v e r c h , R. A. L e v i n e . S e p t e m b e r 1970. An a s s e s s m e n t o f E. C. B a n f i e l d ' s r e c e n t T h e U n h e a v e n l y C i t y a n d J. W. F o r r e s t e r ’s U r b a n D y n a m i c s. As u r b a n e x p e r t s , b o t h are considered influential. But Banfield.'s work i s f l a w e d by l o g i c a l i n c o n s i s t e n c y a n d m i s u s e ot e v i d e n c e , a n d F o r r e s t e r ' s work lacks empirical evidence. Thus they c o n t r i b u t e l i t t l e to r e s o l v i n g s e r i o u s urban problems. Rather, they reduce the n u m b e r o f p o l i c y i n s t r u m e n t s to p u b l i c e d u c a t i o n , e f f o r t s to u n d e r s t a n d t h e p e r verse nature of c u r r e n t programs, and pa tience. " F o r e x a m p l e " , w r i t e the a u t h o r s , " B a n f i e l d p r e f e r s a z e r o m i n i m u m or low minimum wage and Forrester pr e f e r s a larges cale s lum de m o l i t i o n with no r ehousing of s lum resid e n t s and u n c l e a r e d land given to i n d u s t r y und e r f a v o r a b l e terms. On the b a s i s of the e v i d e n c e . . . p o l i c y m a k e r s would b e i l l a d v i s e d t o p r o c e e d on t h e i r r e c om m endationsAn a l t e r n a t i v e is that p r o m i s i n g c u r r e n t p r o g r a m s b e r e f i n e d . . .and t h a t we c o n t i n u e t o s e a r c h f o r e f f i c i e n t new programs through social e x p e r i m e n t s . " 3 3 pp. (TC) PAPERS RH-6364-NYC The F low of D e f e n d a n t s t hrough the New York City Criminal Court i n 1967. J. B. J e n n i n g s . September 1970. K d e t a i l e d q u a n t i t a t i v e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e f l o w o f d e f e n d a n t s t h r o u g h the C r i m i n a l C o u r t of t h e C i t y o f N e w Y o r k Presented d i a g r a m m a t i c a l l y as f low charts, the d e s c r i p t i o n of c a s e s is r e s t r i c t e d to a r r a i g n m e n t s a n d f i n a l d i s p o s i t i o n s of non- P-1556 C o m m e n t s on A u t o m o b i l e T r a f f i c . J . D. W i l l i a m s . N o v e m b e r 1958. An a t t e m p t t o v i e w a u t o m o b i l e f a t a l i t i e s in c o n t e x t . T h e t h e s i s d i s c u s s e d is t h a t a s u b s t a n t i a l n u m b e r of f a t a l i t i e s i s a n i n e v i t a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e of an o p e r a t i o n of t h e m a g n i t u d e a n d c h a r a c t e r of t h a t c o n d u c t e d on our h i g h w a y s , t h a t the p r esent rate is not alar m i n g when viewed 348 -78- a g a i n s t th o v a l u e d e r i v e d from tho a u t o n o b i l e , a n d t h a t th** r a t e c a n p r o b a b l y be r e d u c e d without, r e d u c i n g t h o u t i l i t y of the o p e r a t i o n . 21 pp. P-1621 P r o p o s a l fo r a " S m o g T a x . " D. M. F o r t , W. A. M i s k a n e n , A. H. P a s c a l , V. F. S h a r p e . F e b r u a r y 1950. A p r o p o s a l for t a x i n g o a c h o p e r a t o r a c c o r d i n g to his v e h i c l e ' s t o t a l output of air p o l l u t a n t s w i t h i n tho L o s A n g o l o s basin. Th o authors contend that this m e a s u r e w o u l d r e d u c e th e t o t a l e m i s s i o n o f a i r p o l l u t a n t s fro"' a u t o m o b i l e e x h a u s t s i n t h o L o s A n g e l o s b a s i n to an a c c e p t a b l e level, a c h i e v e tho d e s i r e d r e d u c t i o n as soon as p o s s i b l e , m i n i m i z e the r e q u i r e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e n s e and i n t e r f e r e n c e in i n d i v i d u a l a f f a i r s , a n d t r e a t i n d i v i d u a l s in d i f f e r e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s a s e q u i t a b l y as p o s s i b l e . T h i s p r o p o s a l is a lso c o m p a r e d with a l t e r n a t i v e s m o g - c o n t r o l proposals. 27 pp. P-192U ^he P o t e n t i a l of E l e c t r o n i c D a t a P r o c e s s i n g in M u n i c i p a l G o v e r n ment. E. F. H . liearie. F e b r u a r y i960. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e m a j o r c h a r a c t e r i s tics of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g e q u i p m e n t a n d of t h e u s e o f c o m p u t e r s in s o l v ing m u n i c i p a l problems. Almost all muni c i p a l a c t i v i t i e s u s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n c a n be d e s c r i b e d i n t e r m s of i n p u t , p r o c e s s i n g , storage, and output. The c o n c e p t that E D P is t o o c o s t l y f o r s m a l l c i t i e s w i l l b e ob s o lete' b y 1 9 8 0 , a n d t h e a u t h o r t h u s a r g u e s t h a t ve s h o u l d a n a l y z e o u r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s and d e s i g n m u n i c i p a l i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s to take fu l l a d v a n t a g e of the capab i l i t y our technology will pro vide. 8 pp. P - 2 0 62 T he F u ture of Data P r o c e s s i n g in S t a t e G o v e r n m e n t . S. F. R. R e a r l e , R. J. M a s o n . A u g u s t 1 9 60. F o r e c a s t s on d a t a - p r o c o s s i n g - e g u i p r a e n t c a p a b i l i t i e s in t h e 1 9 7 0 ’s a n d s u g g e s t i o n s a s t o how s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s s h o u l d p r e p a r e t h e m s e l v e s to u s e t h e s e c a p a b i l i t i e s m o s t effectively. D a t a p r o c e s s i n g in b o t h m a n ual and a u t o m a t i c s y s t e m s i s d e s c r i b e d in t e r m s of input, storaje, p r o c e s s i n g , o u t put., a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n . Better-designed i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s w i l l l e a d to b e t t e r d e c i s i o n s and u l t i m a t e l y to s i g n i f i c a n t op e r a t i n g econ o m i e s and i mproved state operations. 9 pp. P-2422 morrow. The A u t o m o b i l e — T o d a y and ToG. A. H o f f m a n . J a n u a r y 1 962. A p r e d i c t i o n of f u t u r e a u t o m o b i l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , d e r i v e d by e x a m i n i n g o a c h c o m p o n e n t of p r e s e n t - d a y a u t o m o b i l e s in t h e l i g h t of e m e r g i n g t e c h n i c a l a n d e c o nomic pressures. The e v o l v e d c o m p o n e n t s are rec o n s t r u c t e d into p o s s i b l e v e h i c l e s of a d e c a d e or two henc e , p e r m i t t i n g a p r e d i c t i o n of weights, c a p a c i t i e s , p e r f o rmances, speeds, sizes, m a n e u v e r a b i l ities, and initial and o p e r a t i n g costs. 29 pp. P-2452 Possible Economies Through E l e c t r o n i c Data P r o c e s s i n g F. F. R. Hearle. O c t o b e r 196 1 . A d i s c u s s i o n of m u n i c i p a l d a t a p r o c e s s in g . E c o n o m i e s p o s s i b l e t h r o u g h the use of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a p r o c e s s i n g d e p e n d d i r e c t l y o n t h e e x t e n t to w h i c h m u n i c i p a l o f f i c i a l s are ab l e to s p e c i f y the p r e c i s e r o l e of da t a in c i t y o p e r a t i o n s . Until r e c e n t l y , it. w a s s u f f i c i e n t t o c o n c e n t r a t e s o l e l y o n t h e u s e o f d a t a in c l e r i c a l a p plications. F r o m n o w on , t h e a u t h o r c o n c l udes, c i t i e s must a lso i m p r o v e the use of d ata in m a n a g e m e n t d e c i s i o n s . 10 pp. P-2454 C a n E D P b e A p p l i e d to All P o lice Agencies? E. F. R. H e a r l e . Oc t o b e r 1961. A n a t t e m p t to d e t e r m i n e t h e v a l u e o f e l e c t r o n i c d a t a p r o c e s s i n g in p o l i c e a g e n cies. T he a u t h o r d i s c u s s e s the n a t u r e of the d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g job f a c i n g law e n f o r c e ment a g e n c i e s , the e q u i p m e n t a v a i l a b l e now a n d in t h e f u t u r e f o r h a n d l i n g t h i s j o b , and what p o l i c e d e p a r t m e n t s ca n a nd s h o u l d do n o w a b o u t EDP. 12 pp. P-2453-1 W h a t to d o A b o u t T e a c h e r Shortages. F. N. M c F o a n , J. A. K e r shaw. N o v e m b e r 19 6 1 . A s u g g e s t i o n that the s h o r t a g e s o f t e a c h e r s in p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d s can be a l l e v i a t e d if s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s a d o p t a n e w k i n d o f salary schedule that permits higher s a l a r i e s for r e l a t i v e l y s c a r c e s k i l l s . Tho a u t h o r s u r g e t h a t , if i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s a n d t h e n a t i o n as a w h o l e a r e t o p r o v i d e adequate e ducation at a c c e p t a b l e costs, boards of education, school administrators, a n d o t h e r c i t i z e n s s h o u l d adopt, s u c h s a l ary d i f f e r e n t i a l s , s e r i o u s l y w e i g h i n g t h e potential gains against the difficulties. 15 pp. P-2U39 T ho J o u r n e y - t o - W o r k as a D e t e r m inant of Resid e n t i a l Location. J. P. K a i n . D e c e m b e r 196 1. D a t a o n t h e m a n n e r in w h i c h t r a n s p o r t a - 349 -79- tion costs infl u e n c e the h o u s e h o l d s c h o i c e of a r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n . A r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n m o d e l is a l s o d e s c r i b e d that c onsiders this problem somevhat d i f f e r e n t l y from p r e v i o u s models. It is shown that h o u s e h o l d s su b s t i t u t e journey-to-work expenditures for site ex penditures. This substitution depends primarily on household preferences for l o v - d e n s i t y as o p p o s e d to h i g h - d e n s i t y resi d e n t i a l services. 40 pp. P— 2492 E. F. 1962. R. Data Pr o c e s s i n g for Cities. H e a r l e , B. J. M a s o n . February S u g g e s t i o n s for i m p r o v e m e n t o f the e f f i c i e n c y of r o u t i n e d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g a c t i v i ties of mun i c i p a l gover n m e n t s . The Paper d e s c r i b e s the a c t i v i t i e s c a r r i e d out in a d a t a systeia, t h e e q u i p m e n t a v a i l a b l e n o w and in the f o r e s e e a b l e fut u r e for f a c i l i tating these activities, the nature of m u n i c i p a l data, the d e s i g n and m e c h a n i z a tion of muni c i p a l data systems, and the selection of data processing equipment. 50 pp. P-2533 Urban E c o n o m i c A c c o u n t s and Research: A Comment. F. T. M o o r e . F e b r u a r y 1 962. C o m m e n t s on two p a p e r s d e l i v e r e d b e f o r e the A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c Associ a t i o n at New Y o r k , D e c e m b e r 27, 1 9 6 1 . B o t h p a p e r s (on e b y Dr. H a r v e y P e r l o f f a n d t h e o t h e r by P r o f . W e r n e r H i r s h ) a t t e m p t to i n c r e a s e t h e extent and type of information collected on urban and r egional affairs. Hir s c h has s p e c i f i c s u g g e s t i o n s f o r a c c o m m o d a t i n g the i n f o r m a t i o n in a s i n g l e f r a m e w o r k , w h e r e a s P e r l o f f suggests proceeding on four inter related fronts. 4 pp. P-2549 A R e p o r t o n an U r b a n T r a n s p o r t ation Hodel: Some P r o g r e s s and Some Problems. J. F. K a i n . J u n e 19 6 2 . A d e s c r i p t i o n of p r o g r e s s on a R A N D m o d e l t h a t i s i n t e n d e d as a m e a n s f o r e v a l u a t ing the general underlying technological and e c o n o m i c c h a n g e s occur r i n g in the r e l a t i o n s h i p between land use and t r ans p o r t a t i o n in t o d a y ’s u r b a n a r e a s . This m o d e l c o n s i s t s of a s e r i e s of s t a t i s t i cally estimated sub-models tied together by m a c h i n e i n s t r u c t i o n s or decis i o n rules p r e s p e c i f i e d w ithin the model itself, or s p e c i f i e d o u t s i d e the mac h i n e for an e n t i r e m a c h i n e ru n o r for e a c h i t e r a t i o n of the model. 26 pp. 81-745 O - 72 - pt. 1 --23 P-2557 A Data-Processing System for State and Local Governments. E. F. R. Hearle. M a r c h 19 6 2 . A n a p p r o a c h to d a t a s y s t e a s f o r s t a t e and local g o v e r n m e n t s that l o o k s beyond m e c h a n i z a t i o n of p r e s e n t p r o c e d u r e s t o the d e v e l o p m e n t of fresh c o n c e p t s of in f orm a t i o n h andling through the use of electronic data-processing technology. The P a per e m p h a s i z e s the p eriod from 1970 to 1975 b oth as to f o r e s e e a b l e EDP e q u i p ment c a p a b i l i t i e s and as to t r e u d s in gov e r n m e n t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s that affect data systems. The e n t i r e c o m p l e x of f u n c t i o n s performed by states, counties, cities, t o w n s h i p s , and d i s t r i c t s is c o n s i d e r e d r a t h e r than the p a r t i c u l a r o p e r a t i o n s of any s p e cific agency. 13 pp. P-2614-1 C h a n g e s in t h e L o c a t i o n o f Food and General M e r c h a n d i s e Store Em ployment Within M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas, 1948-1958. J. h . N e i d e r c o r n , J. F. Kain. A u g u s t 196 2 . An e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l e x p l a i n i n g c h a n g e s in f o o d and d e p a r t m e n t s t o r e e m p l o y m e n t f r o m 1948 t h r o u g h 1954 a n d f r o m 1954 t h r o u g h 1958. T he P a p e r s h o w s the i m p o r t a n c e o f the nhtori c h a n g e i n t h e v a r i a b l e r a t i o of l a b o r to s a l e s fo r c e n t r a l city equations. It i l l u s t r a t e s the im portance of technological change, innova t io n , an d o t h e r s h i f t s in t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n in d e t e r m i n i n g l e v e l s of e m p l o y ment. It a l s o s h o w s t h a t c h a n g e s in p r o d u c t i v i t y a r e n ot i n d e p e n d e n t of c h a n g e s in e m p l o y m e n t and new investment. In r a p i d l y g r o w i n g a r e a s , c h a n g e s in e m p l o y m e n t a n d n e w i n v e s t m e n t a p p e a r to i n fluence produc t i v i t y more than a u t o n o m o u s c h a n g e s in the l a t t e r i n f l u e n c e t h e f o r mer. 2 3 pp. P-2625 A n a l y s i s of S o m e L a n d T r a n s p o r tation Vehicles— Today and Tomorrow. R. H. H a a s e . A u g u s t 1962. A c o n s i d e r a t i o n of f i v e c a t e g o r i e s of urban-transportation technology: vehicles, p r o p ulsion systems, r i g h t - o f - w a y and allied structures, storage and mainte n a n c e f a c i l i ties, a n d c o n t r o l s y s t e m s . Ve h i c l e s of to day and t o m orrow are d e s c ribed, and some c h a l l e n g e s for f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t are noted. 27 pp. P-2641 Suburbanization of Employment and Population, 1948-1975. J. H. N i e d e r c o r n , J. F. K a i n . J a n u a r y 1963. An a n a l y s i s of t h e p o s t w a r r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e m p l o y m e n t a n d p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n 39 o f the l a r g e s t U.S. m e t r o p o l i t a n areas. Rap id g r o w t h h a s o c c u r r e d i n t h e m e t r o p o l i 350 —80— ta n ring and only slow growth in the c o n trol city. An e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l i n d i c a t e s th.it. t h e s e t r e n d s a r e l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e i n t.hc f u t u r e . The s i g n i f i c a n c e of these fi n d i n g s for urban d e v e l o p m e n t and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g is d i s c u s s e d . 39 pp. P-2651, M o d e l s of U r b a n C h a n g e : Their Role in Urban T r a nsportation Research. C. «J. Z w i c k . O c t o b e r 1962. k d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e r o l e of u r b a n - c h a n g e m o d e l s in u r b a n - t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s e a r c h . T h e s e m o d e l s can bo used as m e a n s for f ore c a s t i n g , a s r e s e a r c h t oo l s to s t u d y t he p r o c e s s of urban change, and as e d u c a t i o n a l devices. C o m p o n e n t s t u d i e s in t h e d e v e l o p ment of s u c h m o d e l s i n c l u d e the t e c h n o l o g y of urban transportation, employment dis tribution, residential location, tripmaking b eh a v i o r and mode choice, and gove r n m e n t p o l i c y a f f e c t i n g la n d use. 17 p p . P-2662 S y s t e m C o n s i d e r a t i o n s in R e gional Information Exchange. E. F. R. Hearle. N o v e m b e r 1962. A d i s c u s s i o n of the r e a s o n s f or the widethe r e g ional e x c hange of health, medical, and welfare information. First, s u b s t a n t i a l a d v a n c e s in b o t h r e s e a r c h a n d p a t i e n t c a r e Btight b e a c h i e v e d i f t h e v o l u m e s o f v a l u a b l e d a t a b u r i e d in f i l e s o f health, medical, and wel f a r e a g e n c i e s were more accessible. Second, data elec t r o n i c d e v i c e s o f f e r r e a l p r o m i s e of m a k i ng b e t t e r a c c e s s to suc h d a t a t e c h n o l o g ically feasible. C o n s i d e r a t i o n is also g i v e n to t h e d e s i g n of a r e g i o n a l i n f o r m a tion s y s t e m c h a r a c t e r i z e d by many g e o g r a p h i c a l l y remote input and output s t a t i o n s l i n k e d to a c e n t r a l p r o c e s s i n g and s t o r a g e facility. 10 pp. P-2663 An E c o n o m e t r i c M o d e l o f M e t r o politan Development. J. H. N i e d e r c o r n , J. P. K a i n . D e c e m b e r 196 2 . T h i s P a p e r p r e s e n t s a m o del of t he p o p u l ati o n and emplo y m e n t cha n g e s that oc c u r r e d in t h e 39 l a r g e s t s t a n d a r d m e t r o p o l i t a n s t a t i s t i c a l a r e a s f r o m 1954 to 1958. A m o n g the q u e s t i o n s this m o d e l is i n t e n d e d to ans w e r are the following: Do population changes lead to employment changes? Ts the opposite true? Or do the t w o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y e x e r t s o m e i n f l u e n c e on each other? Are empl o y m e n t and p o p u lation d e c l i n e s o c c u r r i n g i n s o m e of th e o l d e r c e n t r a l c i t i e s a t t r i b u t a b l e to t r a n s p o r t a tion system c hanges r esulting from biases in pu b l i c policy that favor c a p ital ex pen d i t u r e s for highways over those for public transit? Or a r e t h e s e d e c l i n e s c a u s e d by s h i f t s in e m p l o y m e n t l o c a t i o n s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o c h a n g e s in p r o d u c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s and h o u s e h o l d l o c a t i o n s ? 38 pp. P-2667 A C o n t r i b u t i o n to t h e U r b a n T r ansportation Debate: An E c o n o m e t r i c M o d e l of U r b a n R e s i d e n t i a l a n d T r a v e l Behavior. J. P. K a i n . N o v e m b e r 1962. T h i s P a p e r i l l u s t r a t e s the a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f a s i m p l e e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l in e x p l a i n ing t r a v e l and r e s i d e n t i a l b e h a v i o r of urban households. The model r e p r e s e n t s a s u c c e s s f u l a t t e m p t to d e a l w i t h t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s and s u b s t itution r e l a t i o n ships involving travel media and housing and commuting expenditures. It a l s o p r o v i d e s an e x a m p l e of o n e way in w h i c h t h e e c o n o m i s t s ' s k i l l s c an be b r o u g h t to bea r on the c o m p l e x and i n c r e a s i n g l y difficult. problems facing urban areas. 3 7 pp. P-2682 The Demand for T r a n s f o r a t i o n S e r v i c e s in a G r o w i n g E c o n o m y . C. J. Zwick. D e c e m b e r 1962. A p r e s e n t a t i o n of th e v i e w t h a t , b e c a u s e a r e l a t i v e l y high level of p e r c a p i t a i n come and a relatively ubiquitous supply o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e x i s t in a l l r e g i o n s o f the U n i t e d States, m o s t of o u r f u t u r e e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w i l l b e r o o t e d in f o r c e s outside the transportation industry. As future t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s will be i n t i m a t e l y li nk ed to thi s g r ow t h, the f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t of o u r e c o n o m y m u s t be a n t i c i p a t e d in p l a n n i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems. 10 pp. P-2712 Battery-operated Electric Auto mobiles. G. A. H o f f m a n . M a r c h 19 6 3 . A c o m p a r i s o n of b a t t e r y - o p e r a t e d and g a s o l i n e - d r i v e n cars. T he c o m p a r i s o n is m a d e on the b a s i s of p e r f o r n a n c e , size, comfort, and initial acceleration. General efficiency, including lifetime costs, ap p r o a c h e s t h a t of the p r e s e n t - d a y c o m p a c t . With u se of t h e i m p r o v e d b a t t e r i e s n ow a n t i c i p a t e d , t he m e r i t s of t h e e l e c t r i c a u t o c o u l d then be r e a l ized; n a m e l y , l e s s air p o l l u t i o n , l e s s of a r e q u i r e m e n t for l and f or a u t o m o t i v e use, l e s s n o i s e . 31 pp. P-2714 E l e c t r o n i c Data P r o c e s s i n g for C i t i e s — The Broad Look. E. F. R. Hearle. F e b r u a r y 19 6 3 . A s u m m a r y of w ha t e l e c t r o n i c d a t a - p r o c e s s i n g e q u i p m e n t c a n d o f o r c i t i e s n o w a n d in the near future. Modern automatic datap r o c e s s i n g e q u i p m e n t g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e s the c a p a b i l i t y of m u n i c i p a l a g e n c i e s to h a n d l e i n f o r m a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y if a n o v e r - a l l . 351 - 8 1 - integrated system serving the entire muni c ipal organization is developed, rather t h a n a p i e c e m e a l m e c h a n i z a t i o n of f a m i l i a r clerical operations. 11 pp. P-2735 C o m m u t i n g and the R e s i d e n t i a l Decisions of Chicago and Detroit Cen tral Business District WorkersJ. F. Kain. A p r i l 196 3 . A p r e s e n t a t i o n of a mod e l f or e x p l a i n i n g a n d p r e d i c t i n g the t r a v e l a n d r e s i d e n t i a l b e h a v i o r of the u r ban p opulation. The ■ odel i s t e s t e d u s i n g d a t a o n w o r k t r a v e l o b t a i n e d from t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s of C h i c a g o and Detroit. For the m ost part, the test r e s u l t s a r e f o u n d to be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s of t h e e m p i r i c a l studies. 4 3 pp. P-2740 H a v e We L e a r n e d A n y t h i n g from Transportation Studies? F.. F. R. Hearle. M a y 1 9 63. C o m m e n t s on t h e v a l u e r e c e i v e d f o r t h e $ 5 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 s p e n t in the p a s t d e c a d e f o r urban transportation studies. The meney a p p e a r s to have b een well spent. The hawn mi won r rn in rp h p n s i v f i c o n s i d e r a t i o n to all a p p r o p r i a t e modes and fa c i l i t i e s w i t h i n a s y s t e m i n t e n d e d to s e r v e t h e o v e r - a l l r e q u i r e m e n t s of a r e gion. Planners and other officials are b e g i n n i n g t o t h i n k in r e g i o n a l p e r s p e c t i v e s a n d in t e r m s of w h o l e s y s t e m s , r a t h e r t h a n in v i l l a g e p e r s p e c t i v e s a n d in h i g h w a y o r m o n o r a i l t e r m s . 12 pp. P-2754 Systems Analysis and Orban Planning. C. J. Z w i c k . J u n e 19 6 3 . A g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n of s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s a n d t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n to u r b a n problems. The analytical approach pro v i des a s y s t e m a t i c means to a s s e s s the i m p a c t a n d i n t e r a c t i o n of t e c h n o l o g i c a l and e c o n o m i c c o n s t r a i n t s and is a p p l i c a b l e t o m a n y a r e a s of u r b a n p l a n n i n g . 14 pp . P-2755 T r a n s p o r t T e c h n o l o g y and the ••Real W o r l d . M H. H e y m a n n , J r . June 1 963. A d i s c u s s i o n of t r a n s p o r t p l a n n i n g and technology. The P a per p o i n t s out that t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s s h o u l d r e s p o n d to h u m a n n e eds and should not become a cost l y e n d in t h e m s e l v e s . T h o u y h t m u s t be giv e n t o t h e i m p a c t o f s u c h s y s t e m s on t h e qua l i t y and char a c t e r of c o m m u n i t y and n a t i o n a l lif e and on the l o c a t i o n a l p a t t e r n of e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y . 13 pp. P-2764 Are C i t i e s H e r e to S t a y ? E. P. P. H e a r l e . J u l y 1963. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e g r o w t h o f c i t i e s in t h r e e d i m e n s i o n s : faots--how cities h a v e c h a n g e d s i n c e W o r l d Wa r IT ; f o r c e s — what cau s e s have brought about these c h a n g e s ; f u t u r e - - w h a t f o r e c a s t s c a n be made c o n c e r n i n g the c h a r a c t e r of c i t i e s a d e c a d e or two from now. It is urged that so l u t i o n s of t r affic e n g i n e e r i n g p r o b l e m s take into account the t e c h n o l o g ical, economic, social, and p o l i tical f o r c e s p r o p e l l i n g t h e c h a n g e s in c i t i e s . 14 pp . P-2765 Information Sys t e m s for Urban Planning. E. F. R. H e a r l e . J u l y 19 6 3 . A di s c u s s i o n of a p p r o a c h e s to urban i n for m a t i o n s y s t e m s a n d c u r r e n t e f f o r t s in t h i s field under way around the country. The i m p o r t a n c e o f th e w o r d s s y s t e m a n d i n t e q r a t i o n is e m p h a s i z e d . Two approaches are d e s c r i b e d : (1) t h e " i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b i l i t y 11 a p p r o a c h , in w h i c h t h e p u r p o s e is to d e s i g n a s y s t e m t h a t will h a n d l e a w i d e r a nge of information, l a r g e l y i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e u s e s to w h i c h t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s p u t ; a n d (2) t h e " i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s ” a p p r o a c h . , in w h i c h t h e o b j e c t i v e is t o d e s i g n a s y s t e m to h a n d l e o n l y t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d for s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n s and o p e r a t i o n s which have t h e m s e l v e s been a n a l y z e d in c o n s i d e r a b l e deta i l . The " i nfor m a t i o n a v a i l a b i l i t y " a p p r o a c h is p r e f e r r e d . 18 pp. P-2803 I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m s for City Management. E. F. R. H e a r l e . October 1963. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m o f h a n d l i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a s p a r t o f t h e c i t y m a n a g e r ’s job. P r e d i c t i n g that t h i s p r o b l e m is go ing to b e c o m e i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t , the Paper stresses a more systematic approach to i n f o r m a t i o n - h a n d l i n g a c t i v i t i e s . 11 pp. P— 2807 Some Pit f a l l s in the A n a l y s i s of R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n a l P r e f e rences. 13. F. B r i g h a m . O c t o b e r 1963. A c r i t i q u e of a r e c e n t l y p u b l i s h e d m e t h o d fo r e v a l u a t i n g t he s t r e n g t h of a m e t r o p o l i t a n p o p u l a t i o n ’s p r e f e r e n c e f o r c e n tral residential locations. While recog n i z i n g the value of the m e t h o d u n d e r q u e s t i o n , the P a p e r p o i n t s o u t t wo i m p o r t a n t e r r o r s in i t s i l l u s t r a t i o n : the use of a si n g l e , a t y p i c a l s a m p l e to r e p r e s e n t an e n t i r e a rea, a nd a f a i l u r e to take in t o acc o u n t the a m e n i t y level. Los A n g e l e s i s the f o c u s of t h e d i s c u s s i o n , but the c riticisms and s u g g ested i mprove ments are generally applicable. 8 pp. 352 - 82 - P-2313 A r e We W i l l i n g t o P a y f o r C o n gestion-Frce Transportation? R. H. Haase. J a n u a r y 19 f>4. h b r i e f c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t he p r o b l e m s of peak-hour traffic congestion. The author s u g g e s t s t h a t , b e c a u s e we c a n n o t a f f o r d the cost of providing the f a c i l i t i e s nec e s s a r y to e l i m i n a t e c o n g e s t i o n , we will h a v e to e i t h e r c o n t i n u e to l i v e w i t h rushh o u r c o n g e s t i o n or c h a n g e o u r p a t t e r n s of l i v i n g t o e l i m i n a t e p e a k i n g i n t h e u s e of transportation facilities. 15 p p . P-2R18 Divergences Between Individual and Total Costs Within Government. P. N. M c K e a n . N o v e m b e r 196 3 . A s t u d y of the c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d t h e p r i v a t e a n d p u b l i c p o r t i o n s of the oconomy; namely, the d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n c o s t s and r e w a r d s as p e r c e i v e d by d e c i s i o n m a k e r s , and t o t a l c o s t s and re w a r d s p r o d u c e d by t h e i r acti o n s . These differences are often called external e c o n o m i e s o r d i s e c o n o m i e s or s p i l l o v e r e f f e c t s ; t hey s o m e t i m e s a f f e c t p e o p l e in ways tha t de c i s i o n m a k e r s do not take into account. The effect of the function of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s in g o v e r n m e n t o p e r a t i o n s is presented. 9 pp. P-2963 Inside Bureaucracy. A. D o w n s . A u g u s t 1964. A t h e o r e t i c a l study of b u r e a u c r a t i c de cisionmaking. It a t t e m p t s t o p r o v i d e bot h a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e o p e r a t i o n of b u r e a u s a n d to s u p p l y the t e c h n i q u e s for predicting their behavior. 29 pp. P-2991 R e s u m e of t h e H A N D C o n f e r e n c e on U r b a n E c o n o m i c s . J. H. N i e d e r c o r n , A. H. P a s c a l . O c t o b e r 1964. A r e s u m e of the C o n f e r e n c e on n r b a n E c o n o m i c s h e l d 2 4 - 2 5 A u g u s t 1964 at RAND. T h i s c o n c l a v e of p u b l i c o f f i c i a l s a nd r e sear c h e r s discussed race rela t i o n s and poverty, urban transportation, and ways in w h i c h a c o o r d i n a t e d s e t of p o l i c y t o o l s for a t t a c k i n g u r b a n p r o b l e m s and i m p r o v i n g u r b a n func t i o n s might h e l p in shaping a better metropolis. 3 2 pp. P-3002 O n M i n i m i z i n g t h e L a n d U s e d by A u t o m o b i l e s a n d P u s e s in t h e U r b a n C e n tral Core: Und e r g r o u n d H ighways and Parking Facilities. G. A. H o f f m a n . O c t o b e r 1964. An e x a m i n a t i o n of the p o s s i b i l i t i e s for r e d u c i n g the a m o u n t o f l a n d u sed for u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n in t h e c e n t r a l c i t y b y p r o viding autom o t i v e acce s s with d eep un d e r ground tunnels and parking areas. The c o s t of c o n v e n t i o n a l u r b a n h i g h w a y s b u i l t t hrough d e n sely p o p u l a t e d a r e a s is c o m pa r e d wi t h the c o s t s of c o n s t r u c t i n g an d ventilating vehicular tunnels. Design f e a t u r e s of u n d e r g r o u n d c o n s t r u c t i o n a nd travel are considered. Recommendations a r e g i v e n for s t u d y of the u n d e r g r o u n d hi ghway c o n c e p t and d e v e l o p m e n t of p r o t o type machi n e s c a p a b l e of rapid e x c a v a t i o n of v e h i c u l a r t u n n e l s i n m o s t r o c k c o n d i tions. 3 0 pp . P-3031 A Theory of Bureaucracy. A. Downs. N o v e m b e r 1964. P r e s e n t a t i o n of a t h e o r y of b u r e a u c r a t i c d e c i s i o n m a k i n g based upon the h y p o t h e s i s that burea u c r a t i c o f f i c i a l s are motivated by t h e i r own s e l f - i n t e r e s t s at lea s t p a r t of the time. The t h e o r y as de v e l o p e d has two m a j o r p u r p o s e s : to permit a better u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e o p e r a t i o n s o f b u reaus, a n d to m ake p o s s i b l e n ore a c c u r a t e predictions about their behavior. 13 p p . P-3059-1 T h e E f f e c t of t h e G h e t t o on the D i s t r i b u t i o n and L e v e l of N o n w h i t e E m p l o y m e n t in U r b a n A r e a s . J. F. K a i n . R e v i s e d Hay 1965. An a n a l y s i s of t h e e f f e c t of d i s c r i m i n a tion in t he h o u s i n g m a r k e t on the d i s t r i b u t i o n an d l e v e l of n o n w h i t e e m p l o y m e n t in urban areas. The h y p o t h e s e s e v a l u a t e d are t h a t r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n in t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t : (1) a f f e c t s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f n o n w h i t e e m p l o y m e n t ; a n d (2) r e d u c e s n o n w h i t e job o p p o r t u n i t i e s . The hypot h e s e s are tested empirically, using origin and d e s t i n a t i o n data ob t a i n e d from the 1952 Detroit Area T r a f f i c Study a nd the 1956 C h i c a g o Area T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Study. 2 3 pp . P - 3002-1 Economic Growth and Poverty. R. R. N e l s o n . A p r i l 1965. A d i s c u s s i o n o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a s it r e l a t e s to p r o b l e m s of p o v e r t y a n d t h e i r resolution. The factors promoting eco nomic growth in the Uni t e d States, a d j u s t m e n t s r e q u i r e d , a nd p r o s p e c t s for the future are covered. 12 pp. P-3092 R e c o n n a i s s a n c e for the War on Poverty. A. H. P a s c a l . M a r c h 1965. A d i s c u s s i o n of fac t o r s for c o n s i d e r a t i o n in p l a n n i n g t h e w a r on p o v e r t y a n d s u g gestions for further research. Labor mar ket policies, d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n and t r a i n i n g , a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to ~9353 poverty 7 pp. levels are discussed briefly. P-3095 The Economics of Housing Segre gation. A. H. P a s c a l . M a r c h 19 6 5 . A n a t t e m p t to s e p a r a t e the c a u s e s o f o b s e r v e d s e g r e g a t i o n o f n o n w h i t e s in U . S . cities into socio-economic differences and prejudice. The major hypothesis t e s t e d i s that r e s i d e n t i a l s e g r e g a t i o n is s o c i o - e c o n o m i c i n c h a r a c t e r , i.e., i s a t t r i b u t a b l e to w h i t e / n o n w h i t e d i f f e r e n t i a l s in income and vealth, family size and c o m p osition, and the job locat i o n of its working members. The P a per proves this hypothesis untenable and supports this c o n c l u s i o n by s u p p l e m e n t a r y t e s t s . Nei ther could a g o o d case be made for v o l u n t a r y s e g r e g a t i o n by n o n w h i t e s a s a n e x p l a na t i o n of their r e s i d e n t i a l pattern. 2 8 p p. P-3114 A Sh o r t Course in Model Design. I. S. L o w r y . A p r i l 1965. An e x a m i n a t i o n of the m o d e l - b u i l d e r * s way o f t h i n k i n g a n d t h e m e a n i n g of t h e t e r m s cf his trade, as yell as s u g gested s t a n d a rds for e v a l u a t i n g his product. Basing his a n a l y s i s on cur r e n t m o d e l s of urban l a n d use and s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , the a u t h o r d i s c u s s e s their use, the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e o r i e s to them, t h e s t r a t e g y of d e s i g n , a n d the f i t t i n g a n d t e s t i n g of a model. He c o n c l u d e s tha t o r d i n a r i l y a c l i e n t a c c e p t s from the m o d e l - b u i l d e r a tool of unk n o w n e f f i c a c y and that the tests are at best partial and indecisive. He a lso maintains, however, that the p roc e s s of m o d e l - b u i l d i n g is e d u c a t i o n a l and its future is promising. 2 8 pp. Bibliog. P-3293-1 S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s a s an A i d in Air Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n Planning. D. N. Fort. M a r c h 196 6 . A d i s c u s s i o n of p o s s i b l e uses and l i m i t a t i o n s of s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s as an aid in air transportation planning. Following g e n e r a l r e m arks on the subject, c o n s i d e r a t i o n is g i v e n to the a p p l i c a t i o n of s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t o a few a r b i t r a r i l y s e lected non-military air transportation p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m s , to i l l u s t r a t e v a r i o u s pertinent points. T h e e m p h a s i s i s on t h e i m p o r t a n t i n i t i a l s t e p s in f o r m u l a t i n g the analysis, beginning with the identi f i c a t i o n a nd d e f i n i t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m . T h e n e e d for r e a l i s t i c a n d r e l e v a n t i n p u t s is stressed. No a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n to p a r t i c u l a r a n a l ytical or c o m p u t a t i o n a l models or techniques. It is s u g g e s t e d t h a t s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c a n be a n y t h i n g f r o m v e r y u s e f u l t o w o r s e t h a n u s e l e s s in air transportation planning, the q u a lity of the analysis. d e p e n d i n g on 47 pp. P-3HH O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h on U r b a n Problems. F. T. M o o r e . J u n e 1966. A c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f th e v a l u e of o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h in d i f f e r e n t a r e a s o f social welfare. Some a n a lysts feel that t h e i r s y s t e m s s h o u l d be w i d e l y used; others believe that various substantive constraints nullify their best efforts. T h e p r o b l e m is to d e f i n e the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h o s e p r o j e c t s for w h i c h t he t e c h n i q u e s are p a r t i c u l a r l y s u i t a b l e or which contain severely restrictive dif ficulties. The t r a d e - o f f s b e t ween social, e c o n o m i c , public, and p r i v a t e b e n e f i t s are discussed. 9 pp. P-3460 S t atic And D y n a m i c Society. P. K e c s k e m e t i . S e p t e m b e r 1966. A view f r o m M e g a l o p o l i s of t r a d i t i o n a l a n d m o d e r n man a s m e m b e r s of s t a t i c a n d dynamic societies. Trad i t i o n and i n ven t i o n a s f a c t o r s in t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f modern s o c iety are e v aluated. It i s c o n c l u d e d t h a t n r o rtr e s s t o v s r d a. " o r e r a tional world may not point toward more and more pure dynamism, but rather toward a s y n t h e s i s of d y n a m i s m , t r a d i t i o n a l i s m , and charisma. 35 p p . P-3475 Land Use Information. G. R. Hall. N o v e m b e r 1966. A r e v i e w of " L a n d U s e I n f o r m a t i o n : A C r i t i c a l S u r v e y of U.S. S t a t i s t i c s I n c l u d i n g P o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r G r e a t e r U n i f o r m i t y , 11 b y M a r i o n C l a w s o n , w i t h C h a r l e s L. S t e w a r t . T h e b o o k m a r k s t h e t r a n s i t i o n to a n e w e r a c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y (1) a c o n c e r n w i t h p a t t e r n s of l a n d u s e a n d a w i l l i n g n e s s to i n f l u e n c e t h e m t h r o u g h p u b l i c p r o g r a m s ; (2) a n i n t e r e s t in b a s i n g d e c i s i o n s o n q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s ; a n d (3) a n i n c r e a s i n g c a p a b i l i t y to c r e a t e an d han d l e q u a n t i t i e s of d a t a h e r e t o f o r e i n f e a s i b l e . 7 pp. P-3562 U r b a n N o d e in t h e I n f o r m a t i o n Network. P. B a r a n , M. G r e e n b e r g e r . A p r i l 1967. A d i s c u s s i o n of the t e c h n o l o g i e s of c o m p u t e r s a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s in t e r m s o f t h e m a j o r c o n t e m p o r a r y p r o b l e m s of c i t i e s . S ince the c o m m u n i c a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n m ay well bo the m o s t c e n t r a l a n d most v i t a l f u n c t i o n of a n u r b a n c o m p l e x , t he i n f o r m a t i o n - b a s e d t e c h n o l o g i e s c o u l d be t he n e x t m a j o r f o r c e in t h e e v o l u t i o n of the city. Computer-communication tech nology could foster a widening, sparser 354 -84- d i s t r i b u t i o n of peo p l e aro u n d the world, w ith u r b a n p o c k e t s of a c t i v e p e r s o n a l i n t eraction among intellectual, c o m m e r cial, industrial, and political leaders. S u c h u r b a n c e n t e r s w o u l d be s o u r c e s of i d e a s and t o p - l e v e l d e c i s i o n s and would s e r v e a s i n p u t n o d e s in n a t i o n a l a n d t r a n s n a t i o n a l inform a t i o n networks. 2 5 pp. Bibliog. P-3628 E n g i n e e r i n g and P u b l i c Affairs: S ome D i r e c t i o n s for E d u cation and Re search. E. H. P l u m . J u l y 1967. W h e n m an a b d i c a t e s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o n t r o l l i n g technology, the modern ci t y is the most conspicuous, but not the only, evidence. The p r o b l e m i s to c r e a t e m e a n ingful, systematic interaction between p eople and technology. Educational pro grams combining technology and public af fairs would provide leadership for inter d i s c i p l i n a r y p r o j e c t s to f i n d s o l u t i o n s . P r o j e c t s u g g e s t i o n s and a d e s c r i p t i o n of the Princeton University program are i n cluded. 13 pp. P— 3668 A Pro p o s a l for Wired C i t y T e l e vision. H. J. b a r n e t t , ts. A. G r e e n berg. A u g u s t 1967. A national system of wired city television i s p r o p o s e d as a m e a n s of p r o v i d i n g pro grams that educate, inform, and entertain s p e c i a l i z e d i n t e r e s t s as well as a p p e a l to mas s tastes. Additional c h a n n e l s would b e a v a i l a b l e for e d u c a t i o n a l t e l e v i s i o n , pay-TY, poli t i c a l uses, c r e d i t purchases, a n d an a l m o s t i n d e f i n i t e l i s t of o t h e r functions. Th e c o s t w o u l d be low, a nd the s y s t e m w ould free the p r e s e n t TV s p e c t r u m for other vital private and governmental purposes. 37 pp . P-3673 Seven Models of Urban D e v elop ment: A Structural Comparison. I. S. Lowry. S e p t e m b e r 196 7 . A t h e o r y of t he u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t i s p r e s e n t e d in p a r a d i g m a s a p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e f o r a n a l y s i s of a l t e r n a t i v e models. Seven s p e c i f i c m o d e l s of u r b a n s p a t i a l o r g a n i s a t i o n a r e r e v i e w e d in d e t a i l , i n c l u d i n g o n e s t h a t f o c u s on p a t t e r n s o f l a n d u s e , land-use succession, location, migration, m a r k e t supply, and market demand. 47 pp. P-373U C o m p u t e r S i m u l a t i o n in U r b a n Research. J. P. C r e c i n e . November 1967. R e s t r i c t i n g the t e r m " c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n ’ * to mode l s which are s u r r o g a t e s for re a l - w o r l d urban processes, this paper d i s c u s s e s t h o s e d e v e l o p e d f o r ur.o in t w o m a j o r a r e a s of e m e r g i n g r e s e a r c h : (1) urban growth, development, and spatial l o c a t i o n ; (2) l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t d e c i s i o n making. It also considers two hybrid e f f o r t s a i m e d at s i m u l a t i n g a s y n t h e s i s of economic, political, and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e l e m e n t s of an u r b a n s y s t e m . The f u t u r e in t he a r e a of d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a p pears bright, since progress is being m a d e in t h e t e c h n o l o g y f o r t r a n s l a t i n g a bst r a c t ideas, concepts, and s y m bols into computer language. I n t h e a r e a of urban research, however, a lack of data is l i m i t i n g d e v e l o p m e n t . 27 pp. P-3736 A N ot So C o m m o n V i e w o f t he Ground Transportation Problem. M. Wohl. N o v e m b e r 19 6 7 . T h i s P a p e r s u g g e s t s (1) t h a t t h e g r o u n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m , the p o r t i o n of the t r i p p a c k a g e d u r i n g w h i c h the t r a v e l e r is n o t a c t u a l l y airbcvrne, is c a p a b l e o f s i g n i f i c a n t i m p r o v e m e n t if t h e i n t e r a c t i o n of the m u l t i p l e s o c i o e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g i t a r e c o n s i d e r e d a n d (2) t h a t t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for t h i s s t u d y and a n a l y s i s is p r o p e r l y the b u r d e n of the air ind u s t r y . Av a i l a b l e data s u p port the theo r y that a m u l t i p o r t c o m p l e x s e r v e d b y V/'STOL t y p e a i r c r a f t (for t r i p s u p t o 8 0 0 m i l e s ) w o u l d be a m o r e p r a c t i c a l a n d s a t i s f a c t o r y s o l u t i o n to p r e s e n t a n d f u t u r e p r o b l e m s of air p o r t access, i n n e r - t e r m i n a l delays, and aircraft queueing delays than rapid-transit s y s t e m s b e t w e e n c e n t r a l a i r p o r t s and d o w n town centers. 2 6 pp. Refs. P-3769-1 C o m m u n i c a t i o n s G o a l s for Los Angeles: A W o r k i n g Pap e r for the Los Angeles Goals Program. L. G. C h e s l e r , H. S. D o r d i c k . J u n e 1968. A t e c h n o l o g i c a l and c o s t a n a l y s i s of t h r e e m o d e s of TV t r a n s m i s s i o n — U H F , V H F , and C a b l e - - p r e p a r e d for the Los Angeles G o als P r o g r a m o f the C i t y P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t . R e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e s t h a t 100 p e r c e n t of g h e t t o r e s i d e n t s use T V as a n e w s s o u r c e , w h i l e n e w s p a p e r s a r e u s e d by o n l y 3 p e r c e n t as a news source; therefore, a program u s i n g TV to c o m m u n i c a t e w i t h t h e g h e t t o s h o u l d be i n s t i t u t e d i m m e d i a t e l y , f i r s t , for i n t r a - g h e t t o c o m m u n i c a t i o n , and, ultimately, through a city built and oper ated network. On the b a s i s of f l e x i b i l i t y and, in r e a l i t y , f e a s i b i l i t y , a C a b l e s y s t em s e e m s the m o s t p r o m i s i n g b e c a u s e o f it s a b i l i t y to a d a p t t o o t h e r e d u c a t i o n a l needs. 3 7 pp. Refs. P-3776 A p p r o a c h e s to D e a l i n g Motor Vehicle Air Pollution: with Report 355 -85- o f t h e S u b p a n e l on T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S y s t e m R e q u i r e m e n t s of the P a n e l on Electrically Powered Vehicles. E. H. Blum. D e c e m b e r 19 6 7 . k d iscussion of the non t e c h n o l o g i c a l as p e c t s of a i r p o l l u t i o n . T h i s report, one of si x s u b p a n e l reports, trac e s the nature and extent of the control problem and p r o b l e m s in p o l i c y a n a l y s i s ; d e s c r i b e s t h e s t r u c t u r e of the s y s t e m a t i c a n a l y s i s t ha t is f o l l o w e d ; d e v e l o p s e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a ; examines policy constraints, criteria for c o n t r o l a n d costs, and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and e c o n o m i c c onsiderations; and deve l o p s two quanti t a t i v e models. It examines a broad spectrum of alternatives and considers t h e i r i m p a c t on the n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y , the d i s a d v a n t a g e d , a n d t he poor. Uncertain ties and their policy implications are examined. 5 6 pp. P-38Q1 Televised Ombudsman. K. A. A r c h i b a l d , B. O a g d i k i a n . H ay 1968. P r o p o s a l for a TV p r o g r a m on w h i c h p e o p l e in poverty areas could voice specific c o m p l a i n t s with which the program would c o n f r o n t the r e sponsible public or pri v a t e a g e ncies, request action, and f ollow up afterward. A s k i l l e d a n d f l u e n t MC, w h o is cl e a r l y not representative of e s t a b l i s h e d a u t h o r i t y , w o u l d be e s s e n t i a l t o p r o tect the p rogram from b e c o m i n g dull, repetitious, maudlin, irrational, or de s t r u c t i v e l y hostile. Community groups s u c h a s t h e S o n s of W a t t s o r V e n i c e G a n g b u s t e r s c o u l d be u s e d to c h e c k o ut c o m p l a i n t s a n d the r e s u l t i n g a c t i o n or i n action. Possible formats range from fair ly e l a b o r a t e d o c u m e n t a r i e s to w a l k i n g the street with a handheld camera and asking passersby, "What*s bugging you?" 12 pp. P-3803 A Dynamic Model of Urban Struc ture. J. P. C r e c i n e . H a r c h 1968. A d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e l a t e s t v e r s i o n of the T i m e - O riented Metropolitan Model (T.O.M.M.). The model depicts the in t e r a c t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s in an u r b a n s y s t e m . T h r e e c l a s s e s of v a r i a b l e s ar e included: P-3868 C o n t r i b u t i o n s to t h e A n a l y s i s of U r b a n Problems: A S e l e c t i o n of P a p e r s f rom the Rand W o r k s h o p on Urba n P r o g r a m s , D e c e m b e r 18, 1 9 6 7 - J a n u a r y 12, 1 9 6 8 . E d i t e d b y A. H. P a s c a l . A u g u s t 1968. A c o m p i l a t i o n of f o u r t e e n p a p e r s a n a l y z i n g d ll t iX O y e f t O u S e m p lo y m e n t S e c to r, uu Sudog e n o u s c o m m e r c i a l e m p l o y m e n t sector, and a h ousehold or population sector. The c ity is d i v ided into a disjoint and e x h a u s t i v e s e t o f a r e a l u n i t s in w h i c h v a r i a b l e s a r e located spatially. S u p e r imposed is a transportational system providing access ibilities between various activities within t h e a r e a units. In the f o r m a l m o d e l o f T . O . M . M . , the n u m b e r of a r e a l u n i t s i s v a r i a b l e a n d in p r a c t i c e w o u l d g e n e r a l l y b e d e t e r m i n e d b y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the urban area involved and data availability. 6 1 pp. P-3827 S o m e C o m m e n t s on U r b a n R e s e a r c h . S. G e n e n s k y . A p r i l 1968. A d i s c u s s i o n of R A N D r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s for t h e C i t y of New York, w i t h s o m e p r o s a n d c o n s of i n v o l v e m e n t in an u r b a n p r o g r a m . C o n t r a c t s with the City's Fire Department, Health Services Administration, Housing Development Administration and Police De p a r t m e n t form the b a s i s of c o n t i n u i n g r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s for RAND. However, re s e a r c h w i t h i n t h e u r b a n s p h e r e c a n be d i f f i c u l t d u e to (1) t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e d d e m a n d f o r i m m e d i a t e r e s u l t s ; (2) u n f a v orable criticism from premature p u b l i c e x p o s u r e ; (3) p o s s i b l e s u b p o e n a of c o n f i d e n t i a l m a t e r i a l s ; (4) d i v i d e d a u t h o r i t y ; a n d (5) m u l t i p l e - s o u r c e f u n d i n g p r o b lems. T h e a d v a n t a g e s , c e n t e r i n g in t h e o p p o r t u n i t y to s o l v e m a j o r u r b a n p r o b l e m s and implement solutions, are seen as out wei g h i n g the d isadvantages. pp. Ford Foundation, the t h r e e - w e e k Ran d wor k s h o p w a s intended to d e f i n e and i n i t i a t e a l o n g - t e r m r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m on u r b a n p o l i c y i s s u e s a nd to i n t e r e s t o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s in u n d e r t a k i n g r e l a t e d work. P artic i p a n t s included scientists, scholars. F e d e r a l and NYC officials, and Rand staff members. They were i n v i t e d to p r e p a r e preliminary papers recommending program initiatives, research, and experiments in the program areas of education, health services, we l f a r e / p u b l i c a s s i s tance, jobs and m a npower training, housing and urban planning, p olice s e r v i c e s and p ublic order, and municipal finance and administration. P a p e r s w e r e a l s o i n v i t e d on n o n p r o g r a m issues, such as r a c e r e l a t i o n s and b u r e a u c racy. T h e selected p a p e r s i n c l u d e d in this c o m pilation are grouped under four h e a d ings: (1) u r b a n p e r s p e c t i v e s , (2) m u n i c i p a l o b j e c t i v e s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n , (3) u r b a n p o v e r t y , (4) u r b a n v i o l e n c e a n d p u b l i c order. 190 pp. (Se e a l s o R M - 5 6 0 3 - R C . ) (EB) P-3877 New D i r e c t i o n s f o r P a s s e n g e r Demand Analysis and Forecasting. G. K r a f t , M. W o h l . J u n e 1968. A d i s c u s s i o n of the s i g n i f i c a n t i s s u e s i n v o l v e d in d e v e l o p i n g a m o d e l t h a t w i l l h el p to e v a l u a t e a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t p r o g r a m s i n terras o f t h e c h a n g e s t h e y m a y e v o k e o r to j u s t i f y a p r o g r a m on t h e b a s i s of r e l i a b l e f o r e c a s t s of t he v a l u e s a s sociated with the project. The demand 356 - 8 6 - ftodel d e s c r i b e d , i n c o r p o r a t i n g d i r e c t a n d c r o s s - e l a s t i c i t i e s , p e r m i t s bo t h the t otal a m o u n t of t r i p m a k i n g a n d the s p l i t a m o n g ■ odes to b e a l t e r e d a s t h e t r i p p r i c e o r t r a v e l t i m e fo r a n y m o d e i s c h a n g e d , a n d t r e a t s t r i p d e c i s i o n s a s s i m u l t a n e o u s and interrelated. A s a t i s f a c t o r y model must also recognize that travel decisions are d e r i v e d f r o m a l a r g e n u m b e r of s o c i o e c o no m i c factors and that there are a rela t i v e l y l a rge number of a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l a b l e to t h e t r a v e l e r in t e r m s o f p u r p o s e , mode, time, route, price, etc. In a d d i t i o n , for f o r e c a s t i n g p u r p o s e s , the model must interrelate demand and price/perfor m a n c e f u n c t i o n s and r e c o g n i z e the i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e i n c r e a s e in t r i p m a k i n g a s s e r v i c e i m p r o v e s a n d th e b u i l d - u p of c o n g e s t i o n a n d r e d u c t i o n in s e r v i c e a s the volume increases. Lastly, the long-term i n f l u e n c e o f c h a n g e s in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s on s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t in a n u r b a n a r e a s h o u l d n o t b e iynored. Mor e i n t e n s i v e e f f o r t in dat a c o l l e c t i o n in t h i s a r e a i s r e q u i r e d . 61 pp. P-3906 A Framework for Planning Social Services. A. FI. P a s c a l . A u g u s t 1968. An o u t l i n e of a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s for s o c i a l s e r v i c e s , p r e p a r e d for t h e T a s k F o r c e on t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n of S o c i a l Serv i c e s , D e p a r t m e n t of Health, rducation, and Wel fare. T h e f i r s t s t e p is t o a d o p t a c l a s s i fication scheme indicating where resouccea l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s m ust be m a d e p o l i t i c a l l y and w h e r e th e y o u g h t to be m a d e t e c h nically. Functions could be distinguished by m a j o r c l a s s e s , b y t a r g e t g r o u p s , by s o c i e t a l o b j e c t i v e s , o r b y a c o m b i n a t i o n of these classifications. O n c e r e s o u r c e s have b e e n a l l o c a t e d , s t a n d a r d s to m e a s u r e a c h i e v e m e n t a n d a m e t h o d fo r a t t a i n i n g t h e g o a l c a n be determined. There arc four general in stit u t i o n a l arrangements for furthering a s o cial purpose: (1) ’ ’ ’ he g o v e r n m e n t d i s t r i b u t e s g e n e r a l i z e d pu r c h a s i n g power. (2) The government provides a particular social service. (3) An o u t s i d e i n s t i t u t i o n p r o vides a given service under government contract. (4) T h e g o v e r n m e n t p r o v i d e s s c r i p o r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n car,Is t h a t a r e u s e d to p u r c h a s e g o o d s o r s e r v i c e s f r o m competing offerors. rach d e l i v e r y system h a s a d v a n t a g e s , but t h e l a s t m e t h o d , w h e r e applicable, goes farthest toward increas ing e fficiency through c o m p e tition while m a i n t a i n i n g i n d i v i d u a l free^on'. Although each syst e m will have its own crite r i a f or e v a l u a t i o n , s u f f i c i e n t f e e l b a c k must be p r o v i d e d to a l l o w f o r s e l f - c r i t i c i s m a n d a d a p t i v e behavior. 11 pp. P-3918 the An E c o n o m i c R e - F v a l u a t i o n o f Proposed Los Angeles Rapid Transit System. A. C a r l i n , H. W o h l . Septem ber 1968. E x a m i n a t i o n of t h e e c o n o m i c j u s t i f i c a t i o n for a rail t r a n s i t s y s t e m for Los A n g e l e s a s p r e s e n t e d in t h e F i n a l P e ^ o r t o f t h e Southern C a l i fornia Rapid Transit District. T h e syst e m , c o v e r i n g 90 r o u t e - m i l e s , would be f i n a n c e d by a s a l e s t a x j f o n e - h a l f of o n e p e r c e n t o v e r t h e n e x t 50 y e a r s . The a u t h o r s c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e p r o j e c t is e c o n o m i c a l l y unjustified, as c o s t s will e x ceed benefits. Through economically un s o u n d c j n c o p t i o n a n d p r o c e d u r e , t h e F i nal Re£ort o v e r e s t i m a t e s the number of users on which e c o n o m i c c a l c u l a t i o n s are based; o v e r s t a t e s a n n u a l b e n e f i t s b y $8 0 m i l l i o n ; and claims excessive ’ ’ community benefits." R e c o m p u t a t i o n to a d j u s t the f o r e g o i n g e r r o r s reveals that annual c o s t s would e x c e e d b e n e f i t s b y $ 1 5 m i l l i o n in 1 9 8 0 . T h e r a i l t r a n s i t p r o p o s a l s h o u l d be r e v i e w e d in c o m p a r i s o n w i t h o t h e r p o s s i b l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t s , s u c h as e x p r e s s b u s s e r v i c e a l o n g s p e c i a l r o a d s to provide direct-connection feeder service; addit i o n a l cross-town freeways; and substi t u t i o n of " f r e e - e n t r y ” t a x i s e r v i c e for the p r e s e n t f r a n c h i s e type. 19 pp . (CD) P-3931 Medical Care Cost Incentives: S o m e Q u e s t i o n s and A p p r o a c h e s for Research. I. L e v e s o n . S e p t e m b e r 196R. A d i s c u s s i o n of the p r o b l e m s a n d r a n g e of a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l a b l e for d e v e l o p i n g in centives for medical care cost reduction. T h e m a j o r p r o b l e m s w i l l be t o d e v e l o p a d e q u a t e d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e o u t p u t of m e d i c a l c a r e a n d m e a s u r e m e n t s for th e v a l u e o f t h e attribute.*; o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n c e n t i v e s to c o n t r o l c o s t s c a n v a r y b y t y p e , o b j e c t , s t a g e in t h e p r o d u c t i o n pro c e s s , or lev e l of o p e r a t i o n s . An. u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s a n d their possible combinations clarifies the r a n g e of a l t e r n a t i v e s . Some sugges t i o n s for s p e c i f i c a r e a s for r e s e a r c h include cost studies, productivity ana l ysis, o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e a n a l y s i s , capital allocation studies, alternative m e t h o d s of p r o d u c t i o n , a nd t he e f f e c t of pricing policies. 21 pp . Refs. (K J P ) P-3945 H ow M u c h I s G o o d H e a l t h W o r t h ? V. D. T a y l o r . J u l y 196 9 . A c o n s u m e r d e m a n d or s u b j e c t i v e v a l u e a p p r o a c h to g o v e r n m e n t - p r o v i d e d o r - s u b s i dized medical services. The usual co s t / b e n e f i t o r h u m a n c a p i t a l a p p r o a c h is i r r e l e v a n t to h u m a n p r e f e r e n c e s a n d a c t i o n s of d e c i s i o n m a k e r s . For the nonpoor, g o v e r n m e n t a c t i o n s h o u l d g e n e r a l l y be r e s t r i c t e d to w h a t c o n s u m e r s c a n n o t o b t a i n elsewhere: r e g u l a t o r y a c t i o n s , c o n t r o l of i n f e c t i o u s d i s e a s e s a n d p o l l u t i o n , a i d to 357 -87- b io m e d i c a l research. Governnent activi t i e s a r e w o r t h wh a t p e o p l e w o u l d be w i l l i n g t o p a y f o r them-, S e r v i c e s t o t h o s e v h o c o u l d n o t p a y a re j u s t i f i e d by the w i l l i n g n e s s o f t h e n o n p o o r t o p a y for then. G i v i n g the poor what t hey want in stead of what some index says they need w o u l d b e t t e r s e r v e the total p e r c e i v e d well-being, since present programs arouse hostilityD i r e c t m o n e y t r a n s f e r s to the po o r cost far less to del i v e r tha n medical s e r v i c e s and would p r o b a b l y c o n t ribute ■ore t o i m p r o v i n g h e a l t h t h r o u g h b e t t e r living conditions. 3 8 pp. Refs. (MB) P-3962 Methodology for Determining Traffic Safety Priorities; A Colli s ion Predi c t i o n Model. B. F. G o e l l e r . F e b r u a r y 1969. A n i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t in t h e t r a f f i c s a f e t y d e c i s i o n f r a m e w o r k is a p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l t h a t c a n i n t e r r e l a t e t h e full r a n g e of alternative safety-system components and predict their performance quantitatively. D i s c u s s i o n f o c u s e s on t h e p r e - a c c i d e n t s t a g e of a p r e l i m i n a r y m o d e l in w h i c h four phases are identified: (1) p r e d i s p o s i t i o n , c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e d r i v e r ’s b i o g r a p h y a n d f a c t o r s in h i s a c c i d e n t b a c k g r o u n d ; (2) i n i t i a t i o n , c o n c e r n e d w it h t he d r i v e r ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y r o l e — the e x p e c t e d n u m b e r of haz a r d s he i ncurs in a g i v e n m i l e o f d r i v i n g ; (3) j u x t a p o s i tio n , n a m e l y , p r e d i c t i o n of t h e n u m b e r of i m m i n e n t colli s i o n s e x p ected from the vul n e r a b i l i t i e s , a n d (4) e v a s i o n . The last p h a s e is a nalyzed with r e s p e c t to con f r o n t a t i o n a n d c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s to p r e v e n t collision. The vulnerability concept pro v i des a useful and m e a s u r a b l e i n dex of d r i v i n g errors, unsafe b ehavior, and i m pairment. Marked correlation has been shown between a driver's vulnerability rate and his accident record. 3 6 pp. Refs. (KB) P-3968 Population Policy, Welfare, and Regional Development. I. S. L o w r y . N o v e m b e r 1968. An e x a m i n a t i o n of some fea s i b l e o b j e c t i v e s a n d m e t h o d s to c o n t r o l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . T h e e f f o r t s of p o o r r e g i o n s t o s t i m u l a t e a g r o w t h in a g g r e g a t e i n c o m e to r e t a r d t h e r a p i d g r o w t h of p o p u l a t i o n h ave b e e n mostly unsuccessful. S i n c e an o p t i m u m l e v e l of p o p u l a t i o n e x i s t s for a n y r e g i o n ( i l l u s t r a t e d b y c o n s t r u c t i o n of l a b o r f o r c e and population m o d els), effective methods of p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l must e n a b l e the g r o w t h t o m a i n t a i n that level. Methods are considered which regulate the death rate, t he b i r t h rate, a n d m i g r a t i o n . The la t t e r is feasible, viewed through 25-year s i m u l a t i o n s of m i g r a t i o n e f f e c t s on p o p u l a tion, and m a y be an a l t e r n a t i v e o r s u p p l e m e n t to b i r t h c o n t r o l in r e d u c i n g t h e r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . (Pre s e n t e d to t h e C o n f e r e n c e on R e g i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t P l a n n i n g , P u e r t o R i c o , in M a r c h 1 9 6 7 . ) 41 p p . (BB) P-3980 The Demand for N e i ghborhood M e d i c a l Care. I. L e v e s o n . December 1968. A st u d y of the demand for medical care. T h e r o l e s of the f a c t o r s m o s t a f f e c t i n g t h i s d e m a n d in g e n e r a l , a n d t h e d e m a n d for urban neighborhood ambulatory medical c a r e in p a r t i c u l a r , a r e h y p o t h e s i z e d an d t h e n a n a l y z e d s t a t i s t i c a l l y in t e r m s of the Q u e e n s b r i d g e Heal t h M a i n t e n a n c e Ser v i c e , a c l i n i c s e t up i n N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 1 for r e sidents of a housing p r o j e c t for the elderly. T h e s a m p l e c o n s i s t s of 1219 of the a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1400 r e s i d e n t s . H ealth status, income, educat i o n , and price variables (especially travel dis tance) a r e the m o s t p o w e r f u l d e t e r m i n a n t s o f p a t t e r n s of m e d i c a l care. Education and i ncome are p ositively correlated. When income and other variables are held c o n s t a n t , e d u c a t i o n e n c o u r a g e s use of c l i n i c services, and c o lor is not im p o r tant. On the whole, t h e r e a r e s u b s t a n t i a l s o c i a l a nd e c o n o m i c b a r r i e r s to the r e c e i p t o f a m b u l a t o r y c a r e e v e n w h e n it is provided without charge at a c o nve nient location. 42 pp. (LC) P-4002 R e s e a r c h on N e w Y o r k C i t y ' s Housing Problems. I. S. L o w r y . Decem b e r 1968. A r e p o r t on t h e f i r s t n i n e m o n t h s o f R a n d * s pro g r a m of r e search and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s for New York City's Housing and D e v e l o p m e n t Administration. Most c i t y o f f i c i a l s per c eive four major housing problems: not e n o u g h h o u s i n g is b e i n g p r o d u c e d ; r e n t s a n d p r i c e s in t h e u n c o n t r o l l e d i n v e n t o r y a r e to o high; t he c o n t r o l l e d i n v e n t o r y is b adly un d e r m a i n t a i n e d and the Ci t y ' s h o u s ing stock is rapidly deteriorating; many n e i g h b orhoods are r apidly det e r i o r a t i n g as Negro and Puerto Rican ghettos expand and m i d d l e c l a s s w h i t e s m o v e to t h e s u b u r b s . R a n d wo r k has beg u n in t h r e e a r e a s : (1) g a t h e r i n g d a t a a n d i n f o r m a t i o n on h o u s i n g i n v e n t o r y and urban r e newal p r o g r a m s o p e r a t i n g in the c i t y to s u p p o r t the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a p l a n n i n g , p r o g r a m m i n g , b u d g e t ing s y s t e m g r o u p e d by t h e i n c o m e s of t h e f a m i l i e s the progr a m s are des i g n e d to s e r v e ; (2) g a t h e r i n g c o s t a n d b e n e f i t dal-a on p u b l i c l y - a s s i s t e d h o u sing p rograms; and (3) s t u d y i n g h o u s i n g a n d n e i g h b o r h o o d d e terioration. In a l l t h r e e a r e a s , t h e b a s i c barrier to policy analysis and program e v a l u a t i o n is l a c k of c u r r e n t a nd c o m p r e 358 -8 8 - h e n s i v e d a t a anil o f a g e n e r a l m o d e l o f t h e City's housing market. T h e next few m o n t h s s h o u l d he very f r u i t f u l in t e rms of new d a t a w h i c h , in t u r n , w i l l b o h e l p f u l in f o r m u l a t i n g the model. 9 pp. (MJP) P-40H0 Directed Res e a r c h C e n t e r s and Public Problems. D. J. A l e s c h . Feb r u a r y 1969. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f th e c h a n g i n g r o l e of the directed research cen t e r s and their rele v a n c e in t h e s o l u t i o n o f p u b l i c p r o b l e m s . T h e a c c e l e r a t i n g i n v o l v e m e n t b y the di rected research c e n t e r s in societal prob l e m s at t h e s t a t e a n d l o c a l l e v e l s u g g e s t s t h a t i m m e d i a t e a t t e n t i o n be paid to d e v e l o p i n g an a g e n d a f o r r e s e a r c h . While con t i n u i n g t o work on s u b s t a n t i v e p r o b l e m s , a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n of the r e s e a r c h e n e r g y m u s t be s h i f t e d to d e v i s i n g and inst i t u t i o n a l i z i n g more adequate public processes and institutions, particularly for anticipating public policymaking. The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of d i r e c t e d r e s e a r c h c e n t e r s w i l l d e p e n d upon t h e a n s w e r s to t h r e e q u e s tions: (1) C a n g o v e r n m e n t a n d d i r e c t e d r e s e a r c h c e n t e r s s t a n d t h e i n i t i a l s h o c k of i n v o l v e m e n t with one a n o t h e r ? (2) C a n t h e center?; m a n a g e t o b e b o t h i n n o v a t i v e a n d practical? (3) In w h a t w a y s c a n t h e c e n t e r s he l p p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s to b e c o m e mo r e d y n a m i c than they are t o day? 5 pp. (MJP) P-H045 A S y s t e m s A n a l y t i c A p p r o a c h to t h e E m p l o y m e n t P r o b l e m s of D i s a d v a n t a g e d Youth. S. J. C a r r o l l , A. H. Pascal. *iarch 1 9 6 9 . A d i s c u s s i o n of t h e e m p l o y m e n t p r o b l e m s of d i s a d v a n t a g e d youth and a d e s c r i p t i o n of a m o d e l of y o u t h e m p l o y m e n t p r o s p e c t s . P u b l i c con c e r n ov e r these p r oblems has s p a w n e d a v a r i e t y of p r o g r a m s , r a n g i n g from c o m p e n s a t o r y e d u c a t i o n through antid e l i n y u e n c y a nd a n t i - d r o p o u t , t o s k i l l t r a i n i n g and job p l a c e m e n t p r o g r a m s . P r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n s a nd the c o s t / b e n e f i t a n a l y s e s n e c e s s a r y for the d e s i g n of e f f e c t i v e p r o g r a m p a c k a g e s c a n n o t bo c o n d u c t e d u n t i l the c o m p l e x , d y n a m i c i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s that u nderlie youth behavior and o p p o r t u n i t i e s , with all o f the m a n i fold feedback loops, are understood. This i s a f i r s t s t e p in t h i s e f f o r t . The con c e p t u a l m o d e l of t h e y o u t h e m p l o y m e n t s i t u a t i o n c o n s i s t s of a set of s i m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n s that p r e d i c t the e c o n o m i c p r o s p e c t s for an i n d i v i d u a l on the b a s i s of his exper i e n c e s , tastes, abilities, perceptions, and opportunities. (Pre p a r e d f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n at a N A T O C o s t B e n e f i t A n a l y s i s S y m p o s i u m t o be h e l d a t T h e H ague, J u l y 7-11, 1969.) 25 pp. (MJP) P-40U6 T h e C o n c e p t of a C o m m u n i t y Information System To Mea s u r e the Q u a l i t y of P u b l i c S e r v i c e s . S. H. Clarke. F e b r u a r y 1969. An o u t l i n e of a C o m m u n i t y I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e (CTS) t h a t w o u l d a l l o w t h e l a y m a n to m a k e i n f o r m e d j u d g m e n t s r e g a r d i n g the q u a l i t y of publ i c serv i c e s . The operator o f t h e C I S s h o u l d be a n e n t i t y o t h e r t h a n the p u b l i c s e r v i c e and s h o u l d h a v e e n o u g h p o w e r to o b t a i n t h e r e g u i r e d d a t a a n d e n o u g h t e c h n i c a l c o m p e t a n c e t o m a k e it u s e f u l to the c o m m u n i t y . Data being c o l l e c t e d would be a n a l y z e d a nd a d d i t i o n a l data would be s p e c i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r r e l e v a n c e in m e a s u r i n g p r e d e t e r mined performance standards. P e r i o d i c and s p e c i a l r e p o r t s w o u l d be i s s u e d a s r e quired. Abuses of the system might in c l u d e i m p r o p e r use of c o n f i d e n t i a l i n f o r mation, reaching ov e r l y hasty conclusions, and s tifling w o rthwhile i nnovation and experimentation. H o w e v e r , t h e n e e d of t he c o m m u n i t y to form better j u d g m e n t s o u t w e i g h s the r i s k s i n v o l v e d . 5 pp. (MJP) P-4059 A Mix-of-Hodes Evaluation Model for transportation Systems. K. V. S m i t h . May 1969. A met h o d o l o g y for es t i m a t i n g the incre mental benefit.s/disbenefits and the bene f i t - c o s t r a t i o o f c h a n g e s in t h e t o t a l mix of t r a n s p o r t s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e . Benefits/disbenefits are compared along m an y d i m e n s i o n s f r o m t h e v i e w p o i n t s of users, op e ra t o r s , and the g en e r a l public. An i m p o r t a n t d i s t i n c t i o n i s m a d e b e t w e e n p r i m a r y d e m a n d (as f o r a n i n t e r c i t y f l i g h t ) and d e r i v e d d e m a n d ( t ravel to and from the a i r p o r t s ) . F r e e w a y t r a v e l is c o n s i d ered a s e p a r a t e mode. B e c a u s e of i t s s t r a i g htforward a d d itive features, the m o d e l c a n r e a d i l y be e x t e n d e d to i n c l u d e c l a s s e s of users, and p e r h a p s a ful l n e t w ork a n a l y s i s c a n be f o r m u l a t e d i n a p r o gramming context. (An e x p a n d e d v e r s i o n a p p e a r s in RM-5B69.) 2 9 pp. Refs. (MW) P-4079 N e w D e p a r t u r e s in S o c i a l S e r vices. H. P a s c a l . A p r i l 1969. Broadly defined, social services are t h o s e noncash resources made available under p u b l i c a u s p i c e s o r a s a r e s u l t of p u b l i c f i n a n c i n g fo r t h e f u r t h e r a n c e o f s o c i e t y ' s goals. T h e s e g o a l s a r e the p r o t e c t i o n of i n c o m p e t e n t s , th e i m p r o v e m e n t of c o n s u m e r c h o i c e , t h e e n h a n c e m e n t of s o c i a l f u n c tioning, the a d v ance of equal opportunity, a nd the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of m i n i m u m mat e r i a l adequacy. O n c e the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s has g e n e r a t e d d e c i s i o n s on t h e r e s o u r c e c o m m i t m e n t s a n d the p r o g r a m s t hat fall u n d e r each objective, the institutional a r r a n g e - 359 -89- a e n t f o r f u r t h e r i n g t h e g o a l c a n be s e l e c t e d f r o m a m o n g the f o u r types: government con tractor, individual benefits, and cash transfers. Individual b e nefits and cash transfers have s u b stantial advantages over the first t w o m e t h o d s in p r e s e r v i n g free c h o i c e and in m a i n t a i n i n g e c o n o m i c efficiency. However, s i n c e the ind i v i d ua l ized benefit approach would be a r a d i c a l d e p a r t u r e in m a n y a r e a s , s u c h a s e d u c a t i o n , a s e r i e s of d e m o n s t r a t i o n s of the s y s t e m s h o u l d be c o n d u c t e d b e f o r e a n y large-scale implementation. 12 pp . (HJP) P— 408 3 Some Projected Effects of Jet N o i s e on R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y N e a r Los A n g e l e s I n t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t by 1970. P. T. M c C l u r e . A p r i l 1969. A s t u d y o f the jet n o ise p r o b l e m and a r e v i e w of r e s e a r c h in t h e field, w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o th e e f f e c t on residential property near Los Angeles In t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t b y 1970. T h e b e s t of t he a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s s e e m s to b e large-scale land acquisition, although the political, social, and financial ram i f i c a t i o n s are immense. If, f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e D e p a r t m e n t of A i r p o r t s w e r e to a c q u i r e a l l o f t h e r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y in the n o i s e c o n t o u r a r e a in 1 9 7 0, t h e c o s t B o u l d b e a p p r o x i m a t e l y $1 b i l l i o n . While t o o m a n y h y p o t h e s e s r e m a i n t o be t e s t e d t o f o r m u l a t e a d e f i n i t i v e pla n of r e m e dial action, a proposed solution would in c l ude acquisition and r e zoning of the p r o p e r t y b y the D e p a r t m e n t of A i r p o r t s in su i t a b l y sized "blocks" for immediate sale to private developers, any profits to be pro-rated among the former owners. A m o n g the a d v a n t a g e s of t h i s p l a n i s t hat t h e o w n e r s w o u l d be r e l i e v e d o f m a n y o f t h e p r o b l e m s a n d c o s t s i n v o l v e d in i n d i v i d u a l sales. 163 pp. Refs. (MJP) P-4108 T elevision and Ghetto Educa tion: The Chicago Schools Approach. R. B r e t z . J u n e 1969. An e v a l u a t i o n of the ITV c l u s t e r p r o g r a m mi n g a p p r o a c h d e v e l o p e d in C h i c a g o , w i t h e m p h a s i s on t h e u s e f u l n e s s of t h e p r o g r a m i n p r o v i d i n g mat e r i a l to the c l a s s r o o m s of ghet t o areas. The Chicago public s c h o o l s have moved toward a practical s o l u t i o n to t h e p r o b l e m of i m p r o v i n g ghetto schools through a very localized use of i n s t r u c t i o n a l t e levision systems. As a d i r e c t r e s u l t o f ITV, s t a f f m e m b e r s o f p a r t i c i p a t i n g c l u s t e r s c h o o l s of C h i cago report a significant improvement in b o t h a t t i t u d e a n d a c h i e v e m e n t of the a v e rage pupil. M o r e o v e r , t e a c h e r s who h a v e l i t t l e o r n o e x p e r i e n c e in w o r k i n g with underprivileged children can bene fit g r e a t l y f rom t he i n - s e r v i c e t r a i n i n g r e c e i v e d when o b s e r v i n g t e c h n i g u e s of more experienced television instructors. T h e s e and o t her a s p e c t s of c l u s t e r p r o g r a m ming are compared with c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the c e n t r a l pr o d u c t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e in t e r m s of c o s t a s well a s s e r v i c e s . Sug g e s t i o n s a re m a d e for the u r b a n s c h o o l of the future. 17 p p . Refs. (KB) P-4117 I n d i c a t o r s of the Eff e c t of Jet N o i s e on t h e V a l u e of R e a l E s t a t e . P. T. M c C l u r e . J u l y 1969. A n a n a l y s i s of t he e f f c c t of jet n o i s e on residential property value as indicated b y (1) m a r k e t v a l u e c h a n g e s — d e t e r m i n e d thr o u g h a comp a r i s o n of the mean annual v a r i a t i o n s , d u r i n g 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 7 , in s a l e p r i c e s of s i n g l e - f a m i l y r e s i d e n c e s n e a r Los Angeles International Airport with n o i s e e x p o s u r e s u p t o 1 0 5 P N d B ; (2) c o s t of i n s u l a t i n g s t r u c t u r e s a g a i n s t jet n o i s e ; (3) c o s t o f a v i g a t i o n ( f l y o v e r ) e a s e m e n t s ; a n d (4) d a m a g e s s o u g h t i n a i r port noise litigation. The first three i n d i c a t o r s are r e l a t e d to a h y p o t h e t i c a l 1 2 0 0 s q ft, s e v e n - r o o m , $ 2 4 , 0 0 0 s t u c c o h o u s e e x p o s e d t o 1 00 P N d B . The findings w e r e t hat, for t h e h y p o t h e t i c a l house, (1) p r o p e r t y v a l u e c h a n g e s art* i m t sifln i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d to jet n o i s e e x p o s u r e ; (2) i n s u l a t i o n w o u l d c o s t a b o u t $ 3 8 0 0 ; (3) t h e a v i g a t i o n e a s e m e n t w o u l d c o s t a b out $3400. Litigation damages sought a v e r a g e about $ 3 1,000 per home. 3 7 pp . Refs. (LC) P-4118 Black Nationalism and Prospects f o r V i o l e n c e in t h e G h e t t o . G. J . • Pauker. J u n e 1969. A n a s s e s s m e n t of t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r b l a c k t e r r o r i s m in the United States. T h e r e has bee n a c c e l e r a t i o n in t he r e v o l u t i o n a r y p r o cess among b l acks in the last 3 years, a i d e d p a r t i c u l a r l y by C o m m u n i s t C h i n a . While a black nationalist-revolutionary m o v e m e n t m a y b e i m p r a c t i c a l in t h e U . S . , some ob s e r v e r s think that black t e r r o r i s m i s i n e v i t a b l e i f t h e b l a c k c o m m u n i t y ’s d e m a n d s a r e n ot met. Special measures a r e n e e d e d for the b e n e f i t of b l a c k v e t er a n s of the Vi e t n a m War, not only because j u s t i c e r e q u i r e s them, but t o c o u n t e r t he i n f l u e n c e of t h e g h e t t o e n v i r o n m e n t to which the veter a n s will return. Measures to d e t e r t hem f r o m l e n d i n g t h e i r s k i l l s an d e n e r g y to e x t r e m i s m w o u l d b e useful. The DOD's PROJECT TRANSITION, a voluntary p r o g r a m for men with l ittle ser v i c e time remaining, offers counseling, skill en hancement, education, and job placement. H o w e v e r , ev e n g r e a t e r m e a s u r e s may be required. 17 pp. (EB) 360 -9 0 - P-4129 An A n a l y s i s o f A l t e r n a t i v e M e a s u r e s of T e n a n t B e n e f i t s of G o v e r n ment Housing Programs with I]lustrative C a l c u l a t i o n s from Public HousingE. 0. O l s e n , J. R. P r e s c o t t . N o v e m b e r 1 9 69. A n e w m e a s u r e of t o t a l t e n a n t b e n e f i t i s d e r i v e d w h ich is c o n s i s t e n t with the t h e ory of c o n s u m e r cho i c e and the best a v a i l a b l e e m p i r i c a l w ork on the d e m a n d c u r v e for housing service. Alternative exist i n g m e a s u r e s (which r e q u i r e less i n f o r m a t i o n and c a l c u l a t i o n and w h i c h are, t h e r e f o r e , l e s s c o s t l y t o use) a r e c o m p a r e d , with the resulting c o n c l u s i o n that good e s t i m a t e s of t e n a n t b e n e f i t are p o s s i b l e u s i n g m e a n d a t a for p r o j e c t s o r f o r t h e p r o g r a m as a whole. Other inferences can be drawn from the sample: Public housing r e s u l t s in r o u g h l y 10 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e in r e a l i n c o m e w h i l e g i v i n g 18 p e r c e n t m o r e housing service. It is e s t i m a t e d that a b o u t 60 p e r c e n t o f t h e b e n e f i t s o f p u b l i c h o u s i n g to its t e n a n t s c o m e s from g r e a t e r c o n s u m p t i o n of n o n - h o u s i n g g o o d s a n d a b o u t 40 p e r c e n t from gre a t e r h o u sing service. T h e s e benef i t s vary i n v e r s e l y with family i n c o m e an<3 d i r e c t l y w i t h f a m i l y s i z e . 21 p p. Refs. (MT) P-4163 Environmental Simulation T o o l in a M a r i n e W a s t e D i s p o s a l S t u d y o f J a m a i c a Bay. J. J. L e e n d e r t s e . M a r c h 1970. D e s c r i p t i o n of a m o d e l of f l u i d w a s t e d i s c h a r g e s in an e s t u a r y i n v o l v i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n the w a s t e load, the l o c a t i o n o f d i s c h a r g e s , t h e d e g r e e of t r e a t m e n t , the g e o m e t r y of the e s t u a r y , the f l o w in t h e estuary, and the temperature. Since pres ent c o m p u t a t i o n a l t e c h niques are inade q u a t e to d e a l w i t h t h e t h r e e - d i m e n s i o n a l c o m p u t a t i o n s of f l u i d fl o w and t h e c o m p l i c a t e d b o u n d a r i e s of e s t u a r i e s , v e r t i c a l i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e e q u a t i o n of m o t i o n a n d c o n t i n u i t y is used to r e d u c e the p r o b l e m to a t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l one. The discrete v a l u e s of the v a r i a b l e s a r e d e s c r i b e d on a g ri d , u s i n g a s p a c e - s t a g g e r e d s c h e m e , in which water levels and v e l o c i t i e s are de s c r i b e d at d i f f e r e n t g r i d p o i n t s . Since m a s s d e n s i t i e s a r e d e s c r i b e d at t he s a m e l o c a t i o n as the water levels, t h e r e e x i s t s i n t h e f o r m u l a , o p e r a t e d u p o n in t i m e , a c e n t r a l l y l o c a t e d s p a t i a l d e r i v a t i v e for t h e l i n e a r term. Water levels and mass d e n s i t i e s a r e c o m p u t e d on g r a p h i c a l d i s p l a y s o f t h e o u t l i n e of t h e b a y w i t h g r i d points. 12 pp. Ref. (See a l s o R M - 6 2 3 0 , D ~ 2 0 0 2 4 . ) (MT) P-4217 Crime, Punishment, and P s ychi atry. T. H a l l i n a n . O c t o b e r 19 6 9 . A R e v i e w of T h e C r i m e o f P u n i s h m e n t by K a r l M e n n i n g e r , w h o s e b a s i c t h e s i s is t h a t ps y c h i a t r y has more fu n c t i o n a l value w i t h in t h e c r i m i n o l o g i c a l s y s t e m t h a n h a s b e e n hitherto realized. W e n n i n g e r ’s s u g g e s t e d r e f o r m s f o r o u r s y s t e m i n c l u d e (1) t r i a l s w h i c h d e t e r m i n e t h e f a c t s of a c r i m e ; (2) s e n t e n c e s of i n d e t e r m i n a t e c h a r a c t e r , to b e d e c i d e d by p e n o l o g i s t s on t h e b a s i s o f e a c h p r i s o n e r ' s r e a c t i o n to t r e a t m e n t ; (3) d i a g n o s t i c c e n t e r s f o r t h e c r i m i n a l l y i n c l i n e d ; (4) i n d u s t r i a l s c h o o l s f o r d e l i n q u e n t m i n o r s ; a n d (5) g r e a t l y e x t e n d e d p r e - r e l e a s e and p o s t - r e l e a s e programs. T h e r e v i e w e r r e g r e t s l a c k of e x p a n s i o n of these proposals and also finds i n c onsis t e n t M e n n i n j o r ’s s u p p o r t o f a u t o m a t i c , p r e d e t e r m i n e d p e n a l t i e s with h i s a p p e a l f or more se l e c t i v e t reatment of prisoners. He a l s o g u e s t i o n s w h ether g r a n t i n g greater a u t o n o m y t o p s y c h i a t r i s t s in t r e a t i n g p r i s o n e r s will n e c e s s a r i l y b e t t e r the s y s tem. D e s p i t e t h e s e r e s e r v a t i o n s , the a u t h o r fee l s t his b o o k may e v e n t u a l l y be a ’ ’ c l a s s i c in i t s f i e l d . ” 8 pp. (MT) P-4234 The A n a l y s i s of R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation. A. H. P a s c a l . October 1969. A review of r e s i d e n t i a l segregation. P e e l i n g mainly w i t h M a r k A m e r i c a n s ' h o u s i n g , t h i s P a p e r c o n s i d e r s (1) w h y s e g r e g a t i o n i s a n i m p o r t a n t t o p i c ; (2) t h e c u r r e n t m a g n i t u d e o f s e g r e g a t i o n in A m e r i c a n c i t i e s a n d r e c e n t t r e u d s ; - (3) t h e o r e t i c a l , e m p i r i c a l , a n d p o l i c y i s s u e s ; (4)' a n e w m o d e l of h o u s i n g s e j r e g a t i o n . Attitudinal s e g r e g a t i o n is e n f o r c e d by w h i t e r a c i s m , abetted by black r acism and cla s s p r e j u dice. A r u dimentary model of residential c h o i c e is d i s c u s s e d t h a t c a n a i d in e x p l a i n i n g how s e g r e g a t i o n o riginates, since it i n c o r p o r a t e s a racism variable. There is a lac k of k n o w l e d g e a b o u t t h e e f f e c t s of s e g r e g a t i o n on o t h e r s o c i a l p h e n o m e n a a s well, which c o m p o u n d s the p r o b l e m of policymaking. Various public policies s h o u l d be a n a l y z e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i r relat i v e m erits in a c h i e v i n g h o u s i n g i n t e gration, and more fundamental a n alysis s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n to d e t e r m i n e h o w a n d why s e g r e g a t i o n e x i s t s a nd w h a t i t s social i m p a c t s are. Until then, l ittle can be a c c o m p l i s h e d in h e a l i n g t he b r e a c h b e t w e e n the two societies, M a c k and white. 5 4 pp. Refs. (EB) P-4237 The I m p l i c a t i o n s of G e o g r a p h i c S p e c i f i c i t y f o r Air P o l l u t i o n A b a t e ment Strategy. A. C a r l i n . October 1969. A r e v i e w o f a p r e s e n t a t i o n b y R. E. K o h n a t t he S y m p o s i u m on the D e v e l o p m e n t o f A i r Q u a l i t y S t a n d a r d s in L o s A n g e l e s i n O c t o b e r 1969. P r o f e s s o r K o h n ’s d i s c u s s i o n of a i r p o l l u t i o n a b a t e m e n t s t r a t e g y c o u l d 361 -91- b e e x p a n d e d by c o n s i d e r i n g an a d d i t i o n a l strategy wherein each pollution control authority determines which air quality s t a n d a r d s a r e exceeded, e s t a b l i s h e s pro g r e s s i v e l y s m a ller annual limits for th e e m i s s i o n of c o r r e s p o n d i n g p o l l u t a n t s by specified categories of emitters until t h e d e s i r e d ai r s t a n d a r d s a r e met, a n d then auctions off permits c orresponding to th e s e limits. This approach appears to offer significant advantages over e i t h e r s t r a t e g y d i s c u s s e d by Kohn, if the a s s u m p t i o n o f the g e o g r a p h i c - s p e c i f i c i t y p r o b l e m (that e m i s s i o n s f r o a all s o u rces, r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i r l o c a t i o n in t h e a i r shed, h a v e eq u a l e f f e c t on air q u a l i t y at a r e c e p t o r point) is i g n o r e d . If con sidered, then r e s t ricted a u c t i o n s with m i n i m u m b i d s e q u a l to t h e c o m p u t e d e m i s sion charges for each district and emis sion limit would appear optimum. 6 pp. (EB) P-V250 P u b l i c Ord e r S t u d i e s in New York City. S. w i l d h o r n . November 1969. A p r e s e n t a t i o n o n R a n d N I C r e s e a r c h at an OBSA session, this Paper desc r i b e s Rand police studies, the minority recruitment s t u d y in p a r t i c u l a r . The findings: Dis p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y f ewer n o n w h i t e s a p p l y to be c o m e New York policemen, and more drop o u t a t e a c h s t a g e of t h e p r o c e s s . Minority youths, unlike their white counterparts, a r e m o s t a t t r a c t e d to p o l i c e wo r k b y i t s service aspects. S t a r t i n g s a l a r y was u n d e r e s t i m a t e d b y 11 p e r c e n t . The y were n o t a w a r e that s o m e r e q u i r e m e n t s c a n be o b t a i n e d after p a s sing the examination. Sending a questionaire drew more response from nonwhites. Recommendations: (1) NYCPD should have a separate recruiting budget, with a c i v i l i a n nonwhite as di r e c t o r , (2) p u b l i c i t y s h o u l d e m p h a s i z e t h e appeals and supply the information indi c a t e d b y t h e f i n d i n g s , (3) N Y C P D s h o u l d en c o u r a g e e fforts of n o n w h i t e police o r g a n i z a t i o n s in m i n o r i t y c o m m u n i t i e s , a n d (U) a n i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s h o u l d b e se t up to trace e a c h a p p l i c a n t from first c o n t a c t to a p p o i n t m e n t or r e j e c t i o n . 13 p p . (MW) P-!J2 5 6 Can Public C o n s t r u c t i o n and Re h a b i l i t a t i o n I n c r e a s e the Q u a n t i t y of H o u s i n g S e r v i c e C o n s u m e d b y L o w - I n come Families? E. 0. O l s e n . December 1969. This paper demonstrates, via a demand t h e o r y o f Muth,. t h a t p u b l i c c o n s t r u c t i o n and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n have no e f f e c t on the l o n g run e q u i l i b r i u m g u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g service. T h i s t h e o r y m a k e s c l e a r t h a t it is the subsidy which accompanies public c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t r e s u l t s in g r e a t e r c o n s u m p t i o n of hous i n g . Under simple assump tions concerning human behavior and market st r u c t u r e , the a u t h o r d e d u c e s the r e a c t i o n s of b u y e r s a n d s e l l e r s of h o u s i n g s e r v i c e t o a g o v e r n m e n t p r o g r a m in w h i c h d w e l l i n g units are purchased, destroyed, and rebuilt or r e h a b i l i t a t e d and then marketed by the government without subsidy. If this public a c t i o n is u n a n t i c i p a t e d , t h e n t h e r e w i l l b e a s h o r t r u n i n c r e a s e in t h e q u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g c o n s u m e d , b u t i n l o n g run e q u i l i b r i u m t he c o n s u m p t i o n by e a c h i n d i v i d u a l w i l l be the s a m e as p r i o r to g o v e r n ment action. I n t he c a s e of p e r f e c t a n ticipation, p u blic c o n s t r u c t i o n would not e v e n i n c r e a s e the q u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g c o n s u m e d in t he s h o r t run. 12 pp. Refs. (RG) P-4257 T he E f f e c t s of a S i m p l e R ent C o n t r o l S c h e m e in a C o m p e t i t i v e H o u s i n g Flarket. E. 0. O l s e n . D e c e m b e r 1969. T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s p a p e r is t o s h o w t h a t t he a s s u m p t i o n s of M u t l ^ s t h e o r y of t h e h ousing market imply that a s imple rent c o n t r o l p r o g r a m r e s u l t s in a d e c r e a s e in the q u a ntity of housing s e r v i c e c o n sumed in the l o n g run. In the s h o r t run, rent co n t r o l h a s t e n s d e t e r i o r a t i o n of rent c o n t r o l l e d housing, and, hence, w o r s e n s the h o u s i n g o c cupied by the t e n a n t s of these dwellings. It is further deduced that rent control subsidizes the consump t i o n of n o n - h o u s i n g g o o d s by t e n a n t s o f r e n t c o n t r o l l e d u n i t s at t he e x p e n s e of t h e o w n e r s of t h e s e u n i t s . In t h e l o n g run, rent control does not affect the c on s u m p t i o n of a n y g o o d by a n y b o d y b e c a u s e all units would, in time, bec o m e u n c o n t r o l l e d a n d we w o u l d r e t u r n t o t h e s i t u a t i o n p r i o r to r e n t c o n t r o l . F i n a l l y , it is d e m o n s t r a t e d that u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s of p r i c e s t a b i l i t y t he v a l u e of re n t c o n t r o l to the tena n t d e c l i n e s as time passes. 12 pp. Refs. (RG) P-4258 An E f f i c i e n t M e t h o d o f I m p r o v i n g t h e Ho us in g of Lo w I n c o m e F a m i l i e s . E. 0. O l s e n . D e c e m b e r 1969. T h e a u t h o r prese n t s , in s o m e d e t a i l , a rent c e r t i f i c a t e plan for a C i t y designed to i n c r e a s e the q u a n t i t y of h o u s i n g c o n s u med by low i n c o m e famil i e s . This plan p e r m i t s a s e t o f f a m i l i e s to p u r c h a s e r e n t c e r t i f i c a t e s for an a m o u n t l e s s t h a n t he f a c e value of the c e r t i f i c a t e . Seller^ of h o u s i n g s e r v i c e may r e d e e m t h ese c e r t i ficates at face from the city government. The basic p arameters of a rent ce r t i f i c a t e p lan are: (1) w h o w i l l b e e l i g i b l e f o r r e n t c e r t i f i c a t e s , (2) t h e f a c e v a l u e o f t h e c e r t i f i c a t e , (3) t h e a m o u n t e a c h p e r s on m u s t p a y to r e c e i v e his c e r t i f i c a t e . 362 -92- T h e e f f e c t s of c h a n g e s in t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s >n t h e c o s t to t h e g o v e r n m e n t , t h e n u m b e r of familier. who will p a r t i c i p a t e , a nd the ex t e n t of the im p r o v e m e n t in t h eir housing are deduced. The rent c e r t i f i c a t e plan i s m a d e m o r e s p e c i f i c by a n u m e r i c a l example. The a u t h o r s u g g e s t s some r e search p e r t i n e n t to p r e d i c t i n g e f f e c t s o f a r e n t c e r t i f i c a t e program. 2 3 pp. Refs. (RG) P-4277 T h e P o s s i b i l i t i e s of D e v e l o p ing an E f f e c t i v e N a t i o n a l T r a n s p o r t S y s t e m in t h e 1 9 7 0 s . L. R o e n n a u . M a r c h 1970. S u g g e s t i o n s for b a s i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n re s e a r c h a n d a p r e v i e w of p o s s i b l e d e v e l o p ments. Basic to o l s needed for an a nalytic a p p r o a c h a r e (1) a d e q u a t e n a t i o n a l d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , s t o r a g e , a n d e v a l u a t i o n ; (2) a m e t h o d o l o g y for l o n g r ange, m u l t i m o d e t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t s ; (3) p r o p e r u s e o f g o v e r n m e n t a l r e g u l a t i o n ; (4) m o d a l - s p l i t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s — u n d e r s t a n d i n g the f a ctors at w o r k wh e n t h e r e is a c h o i c e b e t w e e n t w o m o d e s ; a n d (5) t r a f f i c f l o w l i m i t a tions. T h e s e t o o l s can be u s e d to s o l v e s o m e of t h e m a j o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m s : a d e q u a c y of s ervice, d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a nreFerrpfl m a r k e t for a c o m p o n e n t transport mode, cargo transport, traffic flow c o n trol s y s tems and modal interfaces, noise p o l l u t i o n , a nd the s o c i o e c o n o m i c a s p e c t s of m u l t i m o d a l systems. In t he future, automated aircushion vehicles traveling f r e e w a y s or e x i s t i n g ra i l r i g h t - o f - w a y s a t 1 00 m p h m a y l i n k o u t l y i n g r e g i o n s o f the megapolis, a irports, and oth e r major t r a n s f e r points. I n t o r u r b a n t r a v e l may b e by V / S T O L c r a f t c a r r y i n g 1 0 0 p a s s e n g e r s over independent airway systems, and con v e n t i o n a l a i r c r a f t may land at o f f s h o r e ports. 20 pp . (N?) P-4288 Patterns of Negro-White Resi dential Segregation. K. E. T a e u b e r . J a n u a r y 1970. A c r i t i c a l r e v i e w of s o m e q u a n t i t a t i v e em p i r i c a l s t u d i e s of r a c i a l r e s i d e n t i a l s e g r e g a t i o n , p r i n c i p a l l y N e g r o e s in C i t i e s : R e s i d e n t i a l S e g r e g a t i o n a nd N e i g h b o r h o o d C h ang by T a e u b e r a n d T a e u b e r , w h i c h u s e s a n " i nd e x of d i s s i m i l a r i t y " as t he p r i n c i ple independent variable. Index values s p e c i f y t h e p e r c e n t a g e of p o p u l a t i o n o f either race that would have to move from o n e b l o c k to a n o t h e r to b r i n g i t s r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t o l i n e wi t h t h a t of t h e o t h e r race. With this measure, racial residential s e gregation was not greatly d i f f e r e n t a m o n g t h e 10 9 c i t i e s s t u d i e d . T h e v a r i a n c e in the c h a n g e s of man y c i t i e s i s l a r g e l y e x p l a i n e d by a n u m b e r o f i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s in a r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . O t h e r i n d i c e s that h a v e b e e n used to c o m p ile trend series are discussed. The au t h o r c o m m e n t s on the e t h n i c s e g r e g a t i o n s t u d i e s of Kantr o w i t z and c o m p a r e s the d i f f e r e n c e s in p h i l o s o p h y a n d m e t h o d o l o g y b e t w e e n hi s w ork a nd a r e c e n t s t u d y by Pascal. 2 6 pp . (RG) P - 4295 Black Gold and Black Capitalism: A Short c u t for N e g r o e s i n t o the E c onomic Mainstream. A. R. P a s c a l . January 1970. The Italian produce merchant, Polish steel w o r k e r a n d the I r i s h c o p a r e A m e r i c a n c l i c h e s today, but the o r i g i n a l e s t a b l i s h ment of indu s t r i a l e n c l a v e s by ethnic mi norities did serve a purpose: it p r o v i d e d a f o o t h o l d for l a u n c h i n g them i n t o the m a i n s t r e a m of the A m e r i c a n e c o n o m y a n d u l t i m a t e l y i n t o v i a b l e p o s i t i o n s in t h e society. In t h i s p a p e r it i s a r g u e d t h a t e s t a b l i s h m e n t of s i m i l a r s e m i - m o n o p o l i e s for newly emerging minorities--chiefly B l a c k s — c o uld do the same. What's needed is a field w h e r e o p p o r t u n i t y is high, i n v e s t m e n t i s low, t r a i n i n g t i m e i s s h o r t , p r o f i t s are s u bstantial, and e n t r e p r e n e u r s h i p is v i r t u a l l y a s s u r e d . The answer: gasoline dealerships. T h e r e 2 2 0 , 0 0 0 in the U.S., q e n e r a t i n q $ 2 5 b i l l i o n in a n n u a l s a l e s and with an a n n u a l p a y r o l l of $2 b i l lion. For openers, a federal investment o f $1 b i l l i o n w o u l d r e s u l t i n 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 b l a c k - o w n e d and b l a c k - o p e r a t e d s e r v i c e stations. C o n c l u d e s the author: it is a practical proposal with i n c e ntives and a d v a n t a g e s few o t h e r s offer. 20 pp. (TC) P-4314 Urban Metapolicy and Urban EducationT. D r o r F e b r u a r y 1970. I n n o v a t i v e c h a n g e s in b o t h u r b a n m e t a p o l i c y a n d in u r b a n e d u c a t i o n a r e n e e d e d t o ' m e e t present and future urban problems. Meta policy d e a l s with p o l i c i e s on p o l i c y making, in c l u d i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the pol icymaking system and basic policy frame works and postures. R e q u i r e d c h a n g e s in raetapolicy i n c l u d e : (1) d e v e l o p m e n t o f u r b a n p o l i c y s c i e n c e s k n o w l e d g e ; (2) i n v e n t i o n o f n e w u r b a n p o l i c y t o o l s ; (3) e x p l i c i t s t r a t e g y d e t e r m i n a t i o n ; (4) n e w policy-contributing institutions and/or p o l i c y r e s e a r c h o r g a n i z a t i o n s ; (5) i m p r o v e m e n t of u r b a n p o l i c y m a k i n g p e r s o n n e l ; (6) a d v a n c e m e n t o f c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n impo r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s for urban educators: (1) s i m i l a r i m p r o v e m e n t s in t h e u r b a n e d ucation policymaking subsystem are needed f o r b e t t e r u r b a n e d u c a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s , (2) s o m e r a d i c a l c h a n g e s in u r b a n e d u c a t i o n a r e n e e d e d to me e t the n e e d s of b e t t e r urban metapolicies. T h e s e i n c l u d e : (1) e d u c a t i o n of a d u l t s for more a c t i v e r o l e s i n u r b a n p o l i c y m a k i n g ; (2) p r e p a r a t i o n o f c h i l d r e n f o r a c t i v e r o l e s ; (3) t r a i n i n g o f 363 -93- urban policy p r a c t i t i o n e r s for new patterns o f u r b a n p o l i c y m a k i n g ; (*»■ ) training of new t y p e s of u r b a n p o l i c y p r o f e s s i o n a l s ; a n d (5) d e v e l o p m e n t o f p o l i c y s c i e n t i s t s . U r b a n me t a p o l i c y and urban e d u c a t i o n are interrelated; thus c a l ling for multidie ens i o n a l reforms. 24 p p . (Author) P-4320 PACRIR— A Form of Regional Governmental Cooperation. E. J. S a v a g e . M a r c h 1970. E x a mines the purpose, scope, and ac c o m p l i s h m e n t s of t h e P a c i f i c C o a s t B o a r d of Intergovernmental Relations (PACBIR), a regional, voluntary assembly of national, state, and local leaders formed shortly a f t e r W o r l d W a r II t o s t u d y i n t e r g o v e r n mental problems. B e c a u s e PACBIR had no f o r m a l o r l e g a l powe r , it a c c o m p l i s h e d its p u r p o s e s thr o u g h the e x c h a n g e of i n f o r m a tion and the formul a t i o n of r e c o m m e n d a tions. Because PACBIR brought together i n f o r m a l l y all l e v e l s of g o v e r n m e n t a l of f i c i a l s , it e s t a b l i s h e d f r i e n d l y i n t e r g ov e r n m e n t a l w orking relat i o n s h i p s and e n a b l e d the speedy m o bilization of any g o v e r n m e n t a l a g e n c y on the P a c i f i c Coast. S p e c i f i c p r o b l e m s it c o n s i d e r e d d u r i n g i t s 5 years of successful operation included: d u p l i c a t i o n among national, state, and local laws; welfare costs; i ntergovern mental fiscal relations; disaster prepared ness planning; the i m p a c t of the increa s i n g p e r c e n t a g e o f e l d e r l y p e o p l e in t he p o p u lat i o n ; a n d c o n s e r v a t i o n of w a t e r r e sources. 23 pp. Ref. (LC) P-4332 T h e A u t o m o b i l e ’s R o l e i n t h e Future. J. L. H u l t . M a r c h 1970. E xplores the comp e t i t i o n between various m o d e s of t r a v e l as a f u n c t i o n of ran g e , and the choice between travel or e l e c tronics for communicating. An e v o l u t i o n a r y d e v e l o p m e n t of o u r m e a n s of t r a v e l is de scribed that would introduce new concepts for impr o v i n g the c a p acity and c a pability of our urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s while reducing unwanted side effects. A Freeway E x p r e s s T r a n s i t is o u t l i n e d t h a t w o u l d bet t e r use the a l r e a d y huge i n v e s t m e n t c o m m i t m e n t s in land, e q u i p m e n t , and s o c i a l w ay o f l ife t h a t have m a d e the a u t o m o b i l e s u c h an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r . It w o u l d r e t a i n t h e e m i n e n t r o l e of the a u t o m o b i l e w h i l e evolving a more socially satisfying trans portation system. 5 pp. Ref. (Author) P-4345 A Case Study in Urban Develop ment: F r o m " F a c t o r y T o w n " to B a l a n c e d Community. E. J. S a v a g e . A p r i l 1970. A n a s s e s s m e n t of f u t u r e p r o s p e c t s f o r b a l a n c e d s o c i o - e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in R i c h m o n d , C a l i f . , a B a y Ar e a i n d u s t r i a l b o o m t o w n in W o r l d W a r II t h a t t o d a y i s f a c e d w i t h p r o b lems of race, une m p l o y m e n t , o v e r c r o w d i n g , d o w ntown deterioration, and e x p l o s i v e s u b urban growth. The author probes c u r r e n t physical, social, and e c o n o m i c pres s u r e s and e v a l u a t e s oppo r t u n i t i e s for urban growth and redevelopment that will restore t h e c o n c e p t of a c o r e C i t y w i t h a s t r o n g i n d u s t r i a l b ase a n d p r o v i d e jobs, h o u s i n g , r e c r e a t i o n , a n d e d u c a t i o n f o r t h e a r e a ’s burgeoning minority population. Among s p e c i f i c needs: (1) quality high-density r e s i d e n t i a l a n d c o m m e r c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t , (2) p r e s e r v a t i o n o f o p e n s p a c e , a n d (3) r e c l a m a t i o n of much t i d e l a n d area for multiple l a n d use . Richmond has natural advantages, good c i t y a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , and an a d e q u a t e general plan for balanced development; the q u e s t i o n is, w i l l f u t u r e g r o w t h a d h e r e t o planners' guidelines? 28 pp. Ref. (TC) P-&346 The A d v i s o r y C o m m i s s i o n on In tergovernmental Relations— A Data Base for Urban Planners. E. J . S a v a g e . A p r i l 197 0 . ACIR, a 5 - y e a r - o l d i n s t i t u t i o n c o n c e r n e d with p r o b l e m s of i n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l r e l a t i o n s a t t h e n a t i o n a l level., h a s b e e n snrrp<sRfni. in engendering greater inter-level co o p e r a t i o n in the U.S. f e d e r a l s y s t e m , thus helping to reduce the ideological tug-ofwar between those who favor dece n t r a l i z e d d i s p e r s i o n of p o w e r a n d t h o s e who back strong centralized power. This paper ex a m i n e s A C I R f r o m the s t a n d p o i n t o f o r i g i n , structural composition, and interests and accomplishments. I n t e r w o v e n is a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f A C I R *s u n i q u e f e a t u r e s , i n c l u d i n g it s p o l i c y role and an a n a l y s i s of ACIR l i t e r a t u r e on g o v e r n m e n t a l r e o r g a n i z a t i o n in m e t r o p o l i t a n a reas. 23 pp . Ref. (TC) P-4364 A M e t h o d o l o g y for E v aluating Housing Programs. J. S. D e S a l v o . April 1970. Proposes a methodology for evaluating hous ing programs, based on b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s with a mathematical model. Housing programs ben e f i t p a r t i c i p a n t s by p r o v i d i n g th e m with a d e q u a t e housing at l e s s - t h a n - m a r k e t costs, and b e n e f i t n o n p a r t i c i p a n t s , e . g . , by neighborhood upgrading. Both types of ben efits, as well a s r e s o u r c e c osts, shou l d be cons i d e r e d in p r o gram evaluation. There fore, a m o d e l of c o n s u m e r c h o i c e in t h e rental housing market is devel o p e d for theoretically determining and empirically measuring costs and benefits. It c o n s i d e r s , b a s i c a l l y , (1) n e t t e n a n t b e n e f i t s — t h e a d d i t i o n a l i n c o m e the p a r t i c i p a n t n e e d s to be a s well off w i t h o u t the p r o g r a m as wit h i t ; (2) g r o s s t e n a n t b e n e f i t s — t h e p r e v i o u s amount plus that a c t u a l l y paid for the 364 -94- d w e l l i u g ; (3) t o t a l b e n e f i t s — n o n t e n a n t b e n e f i t s plus g r oss tenant benefits; and (4) t o t a l r e s o u r c e c o s t . These benefits and c o s t s are estim a t e d from the actual rent of the p r o g r a m unit, t e n a n t inco m e , t h e m a r k e t r e n t of the unit, and the t e n a n t ' s n o n p r o y r a m r e n t / i n c o m e ratio. 37 pp. (LC) P-4374-1 The R a t i o n a l e for a Policy on P o p u l a t i o n D i s t r i b u t i o n . P. A. Morrison. J u l y 1970. Lacking any n a t ional policy on the spatial d i s t r i b u t i o n of our p opulation, Federal and state policies unintentionally exacer b a t e our p r o b l e m s by a t t r a c t i n g the p r o s p e r o u s a w a y f rom the poor, whi c h t e n d s a lso to s e p a r a t e the races. Without elaborate p r e c a u t i o n s , ne w c i t i e s a r e l i k e l y to d e s t r o y the o ld ones. The spontaneous mi g r a t o r y flow of y o u n g a d u l t s c o u l d be r e directed without interfering with i n d i v i d u al f r e e d o m of c h o i c e by a c t i n g to m a k e certain selected destinations more attrac tive than others. Resettlement programs a n d o n - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n g at s p e c i f i e d loca t i o n s c o u l d be o f f e r e d to a c a l c u l a t e d mix of migrants. Public and private employbu t p r i v a t e i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n h a s b e e n d i f f i c u l t to i n f l u e n c e , a n d t h e l o c a l i s m o f A m e r i c a n p o l i t i c s is a f o r m i d a b l e o b s t a c l e to making public i n v e s t m e n t a work a b l e inst r u m e n t of any policy. Neverthe less, we must f o r m u l a t e o u r goals. This — w i t h t h e a t t e n d a n t v e n t i l a t i o n of i s s u e s — is t h e n e c e s s a r y f i r s t s t e p i n m a r s h a l ing a c o m m i t m e n t to act. (Revised for t h e a n n u a l m e e t i n g of t h e A m e r i c a n P o l i t ical Science Association.) 21 pp. Ref. (MW) P-4379 L o n g - R a n g e P l a n n i n g in t h e C r i m inal Justice System: What State Plan n i n g A g e n c i e s C a n Do. P. W. G r e e n w o o d . J u n e 1 970. The state criminal justice planning agen c i e s r e q u i r e d by th e C r i m e C o n t r o l A c t of 1 9 6 8 m u s t , to a c h i e v e t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s , o v e r c o m e t he u s u a l s o u r c e s o f p l a n f a i l u r e - - r e s i s t a n c e of t h e a g e n c i e s i n v o l v e d to ou t s i d e control; s e p a ration of p lanning f r o m b u d g e t i n g ; p l a n n i n g in a v a c u u m a p a r t from d e c i s i o n m a k e r s who a c c e p t o r reject; l a c k of f l e x i b i l i t y (many i n f o r m a t i o n s y s tems are obs o l e t e b efore they go o n - l i n e ) ; f a i l u r e to c o n s i d e r all a l t e r n a t i v e s ; and l a c k of e v a l u a t i o n data. P r o b l e m s to be faced specifically: res o u r c e short a g e with demand outstripping capacity; obscure func tions and historically based hangups; poor a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ; and divis i o n of fu n c t i o n s a m o n g a g e n c i e s , r e s u l t i n g in f r a g m e n t a t i o n a n d o f t e n in c o n f l i c t i n g e f f o r t s . Coor- d i n a t o d p l a n n i n g is e s s e n t i a l to p r e v e n t o v e r l a p p i n g a nd o v e r s i g h t , to u s e r e s o u r c e s e f f i c i e n t l y , to r e d u c e a n g u i s h , a n d to make r esea r c h widely useful. A n a l y s i s is needed at e v e r y step, r e q u i r i n g e c o n o m i s t s , o p e r a tions researchers, psychologists, engineers, and information scientists. ( P r e s e n t e d to the I l l i n o i s Law E n f o r cement C o m m i s s i o n s t a f f , A p r i l 1970.) 8 pp. Ref. (MW) P-4420 The TRY Foundation: A Case S t u d y in P r i v a t e C o m m u n i t y D e v e l o p a e n t Organizations. P. T. M c C l u r e . Januarv 1971. T he TRY F o u n d a t i o n is a p r i v a t e l y funded, n o n p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n in L o s A n g e l e s d ev o t e d to c o m m u n i t y a nd hu ma n d e v e l o p m e n t in d i s a d v a n t a g e d a r e a s . T R Y ’s a c t i v i t i e s are of inter e s t p r i m a r i l y b s c a u s e g o v e r n mental programs with similar objectives have not been unif o r m l y successful. This p aper d e s c r i b e s the origins, goals, and p r o b l e m s of T R Y a n d b r i e f l y e x a m i n e s p e r sonnel issues such as recruiting, c o m p e n s a tion, an d m o t i v a t i o n . T h e r e a r e no c o m p l e x a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e q u i r e m e n t s t o b e m e t in TRY. P r o g r a m s a r e a d o p t e d o n an ad h oc b a s i s ; n e w a c t i v i t i e s a r e p r o p o s e d by whoo v o r n 1 * n ^ to d i r p r t the new urogram. If T R Y f o l l o w s t h e p a t t e r n of m o s t d e v e l o p i n g organizations, this will change as opera tions become more extensive and the org a n i zation matures. Some tentative c o n clusions d r a w n f r o m T R Y ’s f i r s t y e a r o f e x p e r i e n c e : S u p p o r t a n d c o n t r i b u t i o n s c a n be r a i s e d more e a s i l y for specific rath e r than for g e n e r a l i z e d tasks. P r o g r a m s must be f l e x ible. P e r s o n a l c o m m i t m e n t by i n d i v i d u a l s is the s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t i n g r e d i e n t of success. 34 pp. (KB) P-4424 The U t i l i t y of U t i l i t y T h e o r y in R e g i o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n M i x A n a l y s i s . F. S. P a r d e e , C. T. P h i l l i p s . August 1 970. M e t h o d s f o r a p p l y i n g u t i l i t y t h e o r y to m e a s u r e b e n e f i t s of a l t e r n a t i v e r e g i o n a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n m ixes, as p a r t of a c o m prehensive evaluation. The b a s e c a s e is a l w a y s the c o n t i n u a t i o n of p r e s e n t trends. I nterest groups are defined--users, op erators, other social groups affected, implementing and regulatory agencies, lobbying groups. The a t t r i b u t e s d e s ir e d by e a c h a r e s p e c i f i e d , e x c l u d i r g t h o s e t h a t a re i n f e a s i b l e or u n a c c e p t a b l e . Ways a r e p r e s e n t e d for m e a s u r i n g them and for a g g r e g a t i n g o v e r l o w e r - l e v e l a t t r i b u t e s to find s u m m a r y u t i l i t y m e a s u r e s . A r a n g e of m e t h o d s is p r oposed for o v e r a l l co m p a r i s o n : qualitative evaluation; ordinal scaling a r r a n g e d so the p r e f e r r e d v a l u e is a l w a y s a t t he right; d i r e c t a s s i g n m e n t of w o r t h scores; construction of worth func t i o n s 8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 7 2 - pt. 1 - - 2 4 365 -9 5- f o r e a c h a t t r i b u t e ; w e i g h t i n g on s o m e p o licy b a s i s — e.g., rega r d i n g i a p o rtance t o i n f l u e n t i a l g r o u p s or to t he d i s a d v a n taged. The worth functions and weighting ■ ethods m a y be e i t h e r d e t e r a i n i s t i c o r probabilistic. (Prepared for the 36th n a t i o n a l O R S A m e e t i n g , N o v e m b e r 1969.) 21 p p . Ref. (HW) P-4U25 New D e v e l o p m e n t s in T r a n s p o r t a tion Analysis: E v a l u a t i o n of M i x e s of B o d e s in A l t e r n a t i v e R e g i o n a l E n v i r o n ments. F. S. P a r d e e . J u l y 1970. I l l u s t r a t e s the a p p l i c a t i o n of r e c e n t re s e a r c h on the a n a l y s i s of a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s portation investments. E m p h a s i s is on a c o mprehensive approach to identification, d e f i n i t i o n , a n d m e a s u r e m e n t of b e n e f i t s to u s e r s o f t he t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y stea, to i ts o p erators, and to society. Two alternative s i x e s a re c o m p a r e d wi t h the b a s e m ix (cur r e n t a u t o , b u s , r a i l , a n d a i r s e r v i c e ) in two alternative regional environments during the 1970-1990 period. Each mix involves a $5 b i l l i o n i n v e s t m e n t . Alternative 1 assuraes t h e b a s e m i x p l u s t r a c k e d a i r c u s h i o n (TACV) s e r v i c e o n h i g h - d e n s i t y o r i g i n destination links and short takeoff and l a n d i n g (STOL) a i r c r a f t f o r l o w e r - d e n s i t y service links. A l t e r n a t i v e 2 assuraes t h e b a s e mix p l u s t he i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a dualn o d e s y s t e m c o n s i s t i n g of e l e c t r i c p a s s e n g e r cars and buses o p e r a t i n g on city str e e t s at c o n v e n t i o n a l s p e e d s a nd a t h i g h e r s p e e d s on intercity tracks. Models were con s t r u c t e d to a s s i s t in t h e e v a l u a t i o n e x ercise. 28 pp. Bibliog. (DGS) P-U437 E f f e c t s of t h e P r o p e r t y T a x o n O per a t i n g and Investment Decisions of Rental Property Owners. J. S. D e S a l v o . A u g u s t 1970. M o d e l s t h e e f f e c t s of p r o p e r t y t a x e s o n t h e investment and operating decisions, partic ularly those c o n c e r n i n g upgrading, of rent a l p roperty owners. T h e l a n d l o r d is a s s u m e d to m a x i m i z e p r o f i t s . When inputs t o t h e m o d e l a r e v a r i a b l e (the " l o n g r u n ”) , p r o p e r t y t a x i n c r e a s e s r e s u l t in le s s c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t and, in a c o m p e t i t i v e h o u s i n g market, d e c r e a s e d use of v a r i a b l e factors. T h u s if " u p g r a d i n g " B e a n s i n c r e a s e d c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t , then t a x d e c r e a s e s i n i t i a t e it in t h e l o n g r u n . H o w e v e r , if " u p g r a d i n g " m e a n s i n c r e a s e d h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s , then, in a c o m p e t i t i v e market, tax decreases will c a u s e upgrading; b u t i n a m o n o p o l i s t i c m a r k e t , t h e r e i s no un a m b i g u o u s result. F i n a l l y , w hen the c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t i s f i x e d (the " s h o r t r u n " ) , c h a n g e s in p r o p e r t y t a x r a t e s d o not c a use upgrading. All results hol d for assessment rate changes. T hat rate nay be a d j u s t e d to a l l o w f o r and abatements. 10 p p . ta x e x e m p t i o n s (LC) P-tlUUO Chronic Movers and the Future R e d i s t r i b u t i o n of P o p u l a t i o n : A Lon gitudinal Analysis. P. A. M o r r i s o n . O c t o b e r 19 7 0 . T h i s res e a r c h has 2 purposes: (1) I t a t t e m p t s to i d e n t i f y q u a n t i t a t i v e r e l a t i o n ships between individual- and householdlevel f a c t o r s and the d i f f e r e n t i a l p r o p e n s i t y to move. The findings indicate t h a t r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n m a y be l a r g e l y a ma t t e r of h a b i t u a l m o v e r s c h a n g i ng r e s i d e n c e r e p e a t e d l y and f r e q u e n t l y . (2) I t e x a m i n e s h o w t h e e f f e c t s o f h a b i t u a l m o v e m e n t a r e m a n i f e s t e d at t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n s c ale and i d entifies a g g r e g a t e i n d ices that c a p t u r e the most i m p o r t a n t f e a t u r e s of local population composition for predictive purposes. R a t e s of p o p u l a t i o n a o v e m e n t a r e fou n d to vary p r i n c i p a l l y wi t h the r e l a t i v e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of c h r o n i c m o v e r s in a s t a n d a r d m e t r o p o l i t a n s t a t i s t i c a l area. s e v e r a l i m p l i c a t i o n s for p o l i c i e s to guide future population distribution are discussed. 31 pp . (Author) P-4U46 E v a l u a t i o n a n d I n n o v a t i o n in Urban Research. G. D. B r e w e r . August 1970. A n a l y z e s t he m e t h o d o l o g y of c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n in t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s an d it s a b i l i t y to mana g e c o m p l e x l y o r g a n i z e d s y s tems. T h e "i n p r i n c i p l e " a r g u m e n t s a d v a n c e d in s u p p o r t of the m e t h o d h a v e bee n i n s u f f i c i e n t l y t e m p e r e d by h o n e s t a p p r a i s a l of past "in pr a c t i c e " experiences. A c o n t i n u a t i o n of the e x i s t i n g t r e n d s cou l d harm both the met h o d and the pro c e s s e s of p r o b l e m s o l v i n g in a s o c i a l c o n text. An i n i t i a l p r o b l e m is t h e d e v e l o p ment of an a p p r a i s a l f u n c t i o n — i.e., a s e r i e s of q u e s t i o n s or c r i t e r i a a g a i n s t which a c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n may be judged. The e x p e r iences from 2 empirical contexts a r e r e l a t e d in e f f o r t s t o c o n s t r u c t a s o c a l l e d p o l i c y - a s s i s t i n g c l a s s cf s i m u l a t i o n models. D e f i c i e n c i e s in the a p p r a i s a l i n c l u d e d the v a s t l y d i f f e r e n t o r i e n t a t i o n s of p a rticipants interviewed, salesmanship, and v a r i o u s tech n i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l shortcomings. 47 pp. (KB) P-U46U An A p p r o a c h t o D e v e l o p i n g A cco u n t a b i l i t y M easures for the Public Schools. S. M . B a r r o . S e p t e m b e r 1970. A general strategy for evaluating pupils' p r o g r e s s so t h a t e a c h e d u c a t o r is held responsible for those o u tcooes--and only t h o s e outcome's— t h a t he c a n a f f e c t , to the e x t e n t t h a t he c a n a f f e c t t h e m . The basic 366 -96- s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e is m u l t i p l e r e g r e s sion analysis. Several stages are needed (1) t o t a k e a c c o u n t o f v a r i a t i o n d u e to the p u p i l s ’ backgrounds and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , (2) to e s t i m a t e t h e r e m a i n i n g i n t e r c l a s s r o o m v a r i a t i o n , a n d (3) t o a t t r i b u t e it t o p a r t i c u l a r t e a c h e r s , o t h e r c l assroom variables, and other school characteristicsIn p r i n c i p l e , t h e m e t h o d c a n be e x t e n d e d to e v a l u a t e the c o n t r i b u tions of administrators, provided the d i s t r i c t is large e n o u g h for adequ a t e comparisons. The interclassroom variation r e m a i n i n g after nont e a c h e r effects have b e e n a c c o u n t e d f o r is p r o b a b l y t h e m o s t widely useful measure. Complex econometric m o d e l s m a y be r e q u i r e d t o c o p e w i t h i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t s — t h e e f f e c t of p r o b l e m c h i l d r e n on t h e i r c l a s s m a t e s , or of l a s t y e a r ' s t e a c h e r o n t h i s y e a r ’s p e r f o r m a n c e . 30 pp. (MW) P-4470 N e t w o r k E v a l u a t i o n of C o m p l e x Transportation Systems. K. V. S m i t h , C. T. P h i l l i p s , R. J. L e w i s . October 1 9 70. The proposed methodology studies transpor t a t i o n s y s t e m e f f e c t i v e n e s s by e v a l u a t i n g a c o mplex syst e m of inter- and i n t r a c i t y travel modes— including access, egress, and transfer services— within a geographic region. S u c h a s y s t e m c a n be v i e w e d as a n e t w o r k of n o d e s (cities) and l i n k s (travel modes). T h e m e t h o d o l o g y is i l l u s t r a t e d in t e r m s of a s i n g l e u s e r g r o u p - - m i d d l e - i n c o m e p e o p l e on b u s i n e s s t r i p s — w i t h o u t cons i d e r i n g access and egress. Each link i s d e s c r i b e d by type, s c h e d u l e , a n d c a p a c it y , a s w e l l a s b y i t s p o s i t i v e a n d n e g a tive a t t r i b u t e s perceived by users, such as t r avel time and cost, safety, c o n v e nience, and comfort. User att i t u d e s to ward d ifferent links are summarized by a matrix. T h e e n t r i e s in t h i s m a t r i x a r e n e t w o r k i m p e d a n c e s - - i . e . , s u m m a r i e s of the i n c o n v e n i e n c e s ( " d isbenefits") to t r a v e l e r s u s i n g g i v e n links. If t h e m a t r i x r o w s r e p r e s e n t origin t e r m i n a l s and the c o lumns r e p r e s e n t de s t i n a t i o n t e r m inals, then ap p l i c a t i o n of a s h o r t e s t ' - p a t h a l g o r i t h m to t h e n e t w o r k r e s u l t s i n the o p t i m a l r o u t i n g fo r e a c h o r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n pair. 15 pp. Ref. (LC) P-4477 T h e L a n d l o r d R e i n v e s t m e n t Model: A C o m p u t e r B as ed Meth od of E v a l u a t i n g t h e F i n a n c i a l F e a s i b i l i t y of A l t e r n a t i v e T r e a t m e n t s for P r o b l e m B u i l d i n g s . C. P. Rydell. O c t o b e r 1970. O r i g i n a l l y w r i t t e n for t he O c t o b e r 1970 m e e t i n g o f t he I n s t i t u t e of M a n a g e m e n t Scien c e s , this paper d e s c r i b e s the La n d lord Reinv e s t m e n t Model, a com p u t e r pro gram that prepares fi n a n c i a l a n a l y s e s of a l t e r n a t i v e a s s i s t a n c e tr e a t m e n t s *or b u i l d i n g s r e q u i r i n g r e p a i r s to m e e t MYC housing code standards. It e n a b l e s e s t i m a t i o n of t h e l e v e l o f C i t y a s s i s t a n c e n e e d e d t o i n d u c e a l a n d l o r d to r e i n v e s t in h i s p r o p e r t y t h r o u g h p e r f o r m a n c e of r e q u i r e d r e p a i r s , p a y m e n t of d e b t s , a n d provision for a d e q u a t e fut u r e maintenance. The m o d e l was d e s i g n e d for the P r o b l e m Bu i l d i n g s Evaluation and T r e a t m e n t System, an e x p e r i m e n t a l u n i t in the NYC M o u s i n g a nd D e v e l o p m e n t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r m e d to c o m b a t the loss of h o u s e s fro m e x i s t i n g inventories. T h e d i m e n s i o n s of t h a t p r o h lem: b e t w e e n 1 9 6 5 a n d 1968, 1 1 4 , 0 0 0 h o u s i n g u n i t s w ere l o s t to NYC, m o s t abandoned as f i n a n c i a l l y h o p e l e s s by la n d lords. 16 pp. Ref. (TC) P-4438 R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n in C o l o m bia. T. P. S c h u l t z . O c t o b e r 19 7 0 . T h e g r e a t e s t e f f e c t of C o l o m b i a ' s p o s t w a r p opulation explosion has been a massive m i g r a t i o n f r o m r u r a l to u r b a n a r e a s . U s ing a mode l , this s t u d y e x p l o r e s the c a u s e s of i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n . Massive i n t e r r e g i o n a l s h i f t s of p o p u l a t i o n a r e a d y n a m i c a d j u s t m e n t to i m b a l a n c e s b e t w e e n r e g i o n a l s u p p l y and d e m a n d for labor. O t h e r f a c t o r s a f f e c t t h e d e c i s i o n to m i grate: the c o s t of m i g r a t i o n ; the m i g r a n t ' s e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l ; an d , in C o l o m bia, t h e l e v e l o f v i o l e n c e w i t h i n a l o c a l region. M i g r a t i o n to t h e c i t i e s i s a l s o sex and age selective, d r a wing forth young, able-bodied, and u n e n c u m b e r e d workers - - p a r t i c u l a r l y women, who o f ten h a v e mor e to g a i n t h a n men f r o m l e a v i n g t r a d i t i o n a l rural society. The proposed model in t e r p r e t s l o c a l a g e - a n d s e x - s p e c i f i c r a t e s of i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n as a p p r o x i m a t e l y linear functions for independent vari ables: l o c a l w a g e r a t e s in a g r i c u l t u r e ; 2 m e a s u r e s of e d u c a t i o n ; the e s t i m a t e d l o c a l r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e w i t h no m i g r a t i o n ; the l e v e l of r e g i o n a l p o l i t i c a l viol e nc e; and d i s t a n c e to the n e a r e s t l a r g e town. 2 5 pp. Ref. (LC) P-4512 Fire Service: C h a l l e n g e to Modern Management. E. H. B l u m . Novem b e r 197 0. F i r e d e p a r t m e n t e f f e c t i v e n e s s , on w h i c h t h e U . S . a n n u a l l y s p e n d s a b o u t $3 b i l l i o n , is b e i n g e r o d e d by c h a n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s and community problems. Ov e r 90% g o e s for manpower. The n u m b e r of f a l s e a l a r m s , r u bbish fires, ab a n d o n e d b u i l d i n g fires, d e l i b e r a t e l y s e t f i r e s , a n d n.jn f i r e e m e r g e n c i e s h a v e c h a n g e d the n a t u r e of fir e service demands. M o s t a r c c o n c e n t r a t e d in slum a r e a s where fire insp e c t i o n can ac c e l e r a t e the p r o c e s s of a b a n d o n m e n t a n d t h u s i n c r e a s e t he l i k e l i h o o d of fi r e s . 367 -97- Insurance rating schemes work against new and improved procedures. Congress passed t h e F i r e R e s e a r c h a n d S a f e t y Act in 1968, but without funding. R e s e a r c h of n a t i o n a l s c o p e is needed. D e p a r tments must co o p e r a t e to seek e c o n o m i e s of s c a l e in p r o c u r e m e n t a nd to a l l o w i n t e r c i t y m o b i l i t y of firemen. Increased minority membership and lateral entry into fire service are needed. C o urage and the firefighting tr a d i t i o n a r e not eno u g h . Fire chiefs must be trained as managers, capable of matching re s o u r c e s to needs. (Reprinted from Public Management . ) 5 pp . (HW) P-Q515-1 Orban Growth, New Cities, and "The Population Problem." P. A. Morrison. D e c e m b e r 19 7 0 . C o n s t r u i n g the " p o p u l a t i o n problem" e x c l u s i v e l y as a c r i s i s of n u m b e r s neg l e c t s s e v e r a l r e l a t e d i s s u e s of g r e a t e r u r g e n c y . A n e w c i t i e s p r o g r a m has b e e n p r o p o s e d as p a r t of; a n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y t o a m e l i o r a t e an a d v e r s e d i s t r i b u t i o n of e x i s t i n g popu lation and absorb a portion of its projec ted future increase. This paper highlights t he p r i n c i p a l d i m e n s i o n s of m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d t h e d y n a m i c s of p o p u l a t i o n m o v e m e n t s . T h e r a t i o n a l e for new c i t i e s is th e n d i s c u s s e d i n Lt; la L i u u Lv above objectives, a n d t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f u s i n g new c i t i e s to s h a p e p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n is e x a m i n e d in l i g h t o f e x i s t i n g r e s e a r c h find i n g s . D e s p i t e its attra c t i v e n e s s , the logic of a n e w ' c i t i e s p r o gram is f r a u g h t with d e m o g r a p h i c weaknesses that would reduce its e f f e c t i v e n e s s a n d c o u l d p r o v e to be counterproductive. Such a program must be coordinated with other forces influenc i n g t h e a r r a n g e m e n t of p o p u l a t i o n . A b r o a d e r p olicy on popu l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n and b a l a n c e is a d v o c a t e d . 37 pp . ( A u t h o r ) P— 4519 F r e i g h t T r a n s p o r t in U r b a n Areas: Issues for R e s e a r c h and Action. B. F. G o e l l e r . N o v e m b e r 1970. A s y n t h e s i s of t h e q u e s t i o n s r a i s e d d u r i n g a f r e i g h t s e m i n a r of the 1967 R a n d / H U D / D O T S u m m e r P r o g r a m in U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , revised and republished for the December 1970 C o n f e r e n c e on U r b a n C o m m o d i t y F l o w s p o n s o r e d by th e U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Cana d i a n T r a n s p o r t Ministry. P r i m a r i l y , it is a l i s t o f i s s u e s u n d e r t h e s e major topics: m o v e m e n t of u r b a n freight; i n t e raction of freight and pas senger traffic; freight transport as a c o m p o n e n t o f u r b a n s o c i e t y , u s e r of u r b a n l a n d , a n d t o o l in u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t ; a n d the government role in fostering new tec h n o l o g y a n d in r e g u l a t i o n . Most of t h e i s s u e s of 1967 a r e s t i l l p r e s s i n g t o d a y , but some have been ameliorated. Containerization has progressed, and DOT now h a s a s p e c i a l o f f i c e to c e n t r a l i z e i n f o r aation about freight transport. 30 p p . (HW) P-4532 Admatch, A C o m p u t e r Too l for Urban Studies. A. H. R o s e n t h a l . De c e m b e r 1970. D e s c r i p t i o n of Admatch, a set of c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m s for match i n g g e o g r a p h i c c o d e s from a r e f e r e n c e file to local data rec o r d s that contain house addresses. The geographic c o d e s may i n c l u d e zip cod e s , c e n s u s tracts, c o n g r e s s i o n a l d i s t r i c t s , and m a r k e t i n g areas. A d m a t c h req u i r e s two m a c h i n e - r e a d able files: a local data file and a ref e r e n c e file. The p r eprocessing program uses expandable tables that allow varia t i o n s in s t r e e t n a m e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s or a l t e r n a t i v e s p e l l i n g s of s t r e e t o r s t r e e t type. The matcher program specifies the level of d i s c r e p a n c y that can exist between the reference file and the data file and still pe r m i t the record for the data file t o be mat c h e d . The postprocessor program c o m b i n e s r e j e c t s from t h e p r e p r o c e s s i n g step with the accep t e d r e c o r d s from the m a t c h i n g step. D i s c u s s i o n c o v e r s the role t h a t R a n d h a s p l a y e d in t e s t i n g a n d d e v e l o p i n g the A d m a t c h programs, d e f ines the e q u i p m e n t , and f o r e c a s t s to urban studies. 13 pp. (KB) P-H5U4 The Impact of I n c o m e M a i n t e n a n c e P r o g r a m s on H o u r s of Work a n d I n c o m e s of the W o r k i n g Poor: Some Empirical Re sults. D. H. G r e e n b e r g , M. R o s t e r s . D e c e m b e r 1970. Most welfare reform programs i n c o r p o r a t e n ega t i v e income tax principles. However, if a p r o g r a m r e d u c e s t h e w o r k i n c e n t i v e a n d t h e r e f o r e the h o u r s of w o r k of it s new participants, projected income increases will be lower and s u b s i d y co s t s higher than e x p e c t e d , u n l e s s t h e l a b o r r e d u c t i o n is o f f s e t by i n c r e a s e d w o r k b y t h o s e u n d e r current welfare programs. A simulation of a l t e r n a t i v e a s s i s t a n c e pl a n s i n d i c a t e s that a b o u t 1/3 o f t h e s u b s i d y u n d e r t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s proposed F a m i l y A s s i s t a n c e Plan and Foo d S t a m p P r o g r a m (FAP-FSP) w o u l d be dev o t e d to the p u r c h a s e of i n c r e a s e d l e i s u r e by t h e m a l e h e a d s o f p a r t i c i p a t i n g f a m i l i e s among the wor k i n g poor. These m a l e h e a d s w o u l d r e d u c e t h e i r h o u r s of work by a b o u t 20%, t h o u g h lab o r ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n to n a t i o n a l o u t p u t w o u l d b e r e d u c e d by o n l y 0.03%. F o r fa m i l i e s e l i g i b l e for FSP but not for F A P , the s u b s i d y would b r i n g n o n e t i n c r e a s e in f a m i l y i n c o m e . State supplements would aff e c t total FAP-FSP program costs negatively. 13 pp. (LC) 368 -98- P-4570 R e f o r m i n g R e n t C o n t r o l in N o w York City; T h e R o l e of R e s e a r c h ' in Policy Making. I. S. L o w r y . November 19 7 0 . T h e t e x t of a b r i e f i n g p r e p a r e d for R a n d ' s B o a r d o f T r u s t e e s on N o v e m b e r 13, 19 7 0 . I t d e s c r i b e s t h e r o l e of t h e N e w York. C i t y Rand I nstitute and other research g roups i n t h e rent, c o n t r o l r e f o r m s e n a c t e d by t h e N e w Y o r k C i t y c o u n c i l in J u n e 1 970, s u m m a r i z e s the m a j o r r e s e a r c h and a n a l y t i cal s t u d i o s p e r f o r m e d in th i s c o n n e c t i o n by I n s t i t u t e staff members, and offers som e l e s s o n s for those c o n t e m p l a t i n g s i m i l a r w o r k for p u b l i c a g e n c i e s . 18 pp. (A u t h o r ) P— 4573-1 L o v e a n d L i f e b e t w e e n the Censuses. M. N e r l o v e , T. P. S c h u l t z . H a y 1971. A s i m u l t a n e o u s equation model for various d e m o g r a p h i c e c o n o m i c b e h a v i o r -l i n k e d t o the family f o r mation process is described. It p r e d i c t s fertility, re g i o n a l migration, pe r s o n a l incomes, legal and cons e n s u a l m a r r i a g e s , and w o m e n ' s p a r t i c i p a t i o n in t he l a b o r force as j o i n t l y d e t e r m i n e d f u n c t i o n s of d e a t h r a t e s , i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c ture, e d u ca ti on , and u n e m p l o y m e n t . The m o d e l i s b a s e d on d a t a o b t a i n e d f r o m c o n t e m p o r a r y c e n s u s a n d v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s f or 75 m u n i c i p i o s of P u e r t o R i c o . 19 pp. ( A uthor) P-4582 D o e s P o p u l a t i o n A d j u s t to the Environment? A Comment. T. P. Schultz. F e b r u a r y 1971. C o m m e n t s e v o k e d by a p a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t the D e c e m b e r 1970 A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c s As s o c i a t i o n m e e t i n g s by P r o f e s s o r R i c h a r d A. Easterlin. I’ ast.erlin ' s t h e s i s t h a t m a n ' s r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r r e s p o n d s to his e n v i r o n m e n t i s n o t yet a c c e p t e d by a l l those concerned with r e d u c i n g popu l a t i o n growth. While E a s t erlin's hypotheses ap p e a r s o u n d , lie h a s n o t p r o v e d t h a t t h e y a c c o u n t for fertility d i f f e r e n c e s over t i m e a n d a m o n g 7 U.S . C e n s u s r e g i o n s ; quite different conceptual and statistical a p p r o a c h e s a r e n e e d e d t o d o so. A simul t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n s t e c h n i j u e is r e q u i r e d to express, and a formal s t atistical model to test, the c o m p l e x m u l t i f a c e t e d h y p o t h e sis. A s e r i e s o f R a n d s t u d i e s (R - 6 4 3 , RM-5405, RF-5970, RM-5981, RH-6322, R M - 6 3 B 5 , P - 4 4 4 9) h a v e u n r a v e l e d w h a t a p p e a r to b e e c o n o m i c d e t e r m i n a n t s of f a m i l y size. These suggest that the fe r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s may reflect child m ortality r a t e s a n d the v a l u e of the m o t h e r s 1 time more than the c o s t s of c h i l d r earing. 7 pp. (MW) P-4539 F i f t y M o r e T i m e l y P r o b l e m . of the E n v i r o n m e n t . L. H. L i b b y . March 1971. A s e q u e l to P-4415, w ith b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n s of 50 e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o b l e m s c o m p i l e d from p u b l i c a t i o n s such as Air and W a t er N e w s , E x p l o r e r s J o u r n al, C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g. E n g i n e e r i n i H e w s - R e c o r d , S c i e n c e , M a t u re, and m a j o r n e w s p a p e r s , a n d s u g g e s t i o n s for r e s e a r c h on each. T h i s pa p e r , like its p r e d e c e s s o r , i s s u i t a b l e f o r .use in g r o u p s such as lay d i s c u s s i o n g r o u p s a n d high school classes. Topics include earthquakeresistant structures; noise pollution; fog c o n t r o l ; s m o g d a m a g e to c r o p s ; m e r c u r y contamination; water resources, pollution, an d t r e a t m e n t ; land use; o r b i t i n g s p a c e junk; e c o l o g i c a l c h a n g e s f r o m d a m s and n e w w a t e r w a y s ; a r s e n i c a n d e n z y m e s in detergents; tanker submarines; dredged sludge; w a ste c o l l e c t i o n and disposal; Arctic oil rights; land sinkage; s u p e r s o n i c d a m a g e to o ld b r i c k a nd stone; t r a d e o f f s b e t w e e n tal l s m o k e s t a c k s and SO?-reraoving equipment; STOL airports; p o l yvinyl plumbing for e a r t h q u a k e areas; p o s s i b i l i t y of s t o c k i n g l a k e s w i t h n o r t h e r n R u s s i a n f i s h a d a p t e d to eut.rophied a n d p o l l u t e d water. 66 pp. (MW) P-4590 O p t i m i z a t i o n of P r i c e and Q u a l i t y in S e r v i c e S y s t e m s . J. C.. W i r t . M a r c h 1971. D i s c u s s i o n of t e c h n i q u e s f o r q u a n t i t a t i v e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the o p t i m a l p r i c e s and service q u a l i t y in a wide cl a s s of systems. A p r o b a b i l i s t i c d e m a n d m o d e l s e n s i t i v e to bo t h p r i c e a nd q u a l i t y is d e r i v e d fr o m t h e m i c r o e c o n o m i c concept that a consumer c h o o s e s the s e r v i c e t h a t m a x i m i z e s the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n w i l l i n g n e s s to p a y a n d price. T h i s m o d e l i s t h e n a g g r e g a t e d to obtain a partial equilibrium macroeconomic m o d e l of demand. A B a y e s i a n t e c h n i q u e is d e v e l o p e d fo r u s i n g d a t a t o r e d u c e u n c e r tainty about consumers' values. Following this, c r i t e r i a a r e l i s t e d for o p t i m i z i n g prices and choosing among alternative q u a l i t i e s of ser v i c e . A stochastic ap p r o x i m a t i o n i s a p p l i e d t.o f i n d i n q o p t i m a l p r i c e s in s e r v i c e s y s t e m s ; i n t h e c a s e s t e s t e d , o n l y a m a r g i n a l i n c r e a s e in a g g r e g a t e s o c i a l w e l f a r e is o b t a i n e d f r o m e s t a b lishing multiple priorities. A major s h i f t o c c u r s , h o w e v e r , in t h e i n c i d e n c e o f benefits. 184 pp. Ref. (KB) P-U598 T h e R o l e o f M i g r a t i o n in C a l i f o r n i a ’s G r o w t h . P. A. M o r r i s o n . Mav 19 7 1 . T r a c e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f C a l i f o r n i a ’s p op u l a t i o n , with s pe c i a l e m p h a s i s on the m i g r a t i o n c o m p o n e n t of i t s g r o w t h . Sepa r a t e s e c t i o n s a r e d e v o t e d to (1) t r e n d s 369 -99- m t d e r w a y in t h e s t a t e a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n t o n a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s ; (2) t h e h i s t o r i c a l r o l e o f C a l i f o r n i a ' s m i g r a t i o n ; (3) i n d i cations of a differentiated urban system c o m p o s e d of s e v e r a l d o m i n a n t ce n t e r s that attract p opulation from e v ery region and d i s t r i b u t e it a m o n g C a l i f o r n i a ' s o t h e r B d t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s ; (4) t h e s e l e c t i v e c h a r a c t e r of s t a t e - w i d e m i g r a t o r y growth; (5) h i g h l i g h t s o f r e c e n t r e s e a r c h o n m i g r a n t s a nd their o r i g i n s and d e s t i n ations; a n d (6) i a p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e a b o v e f o r s t a t e p o p u l a t i o n policy. 35 pp. (Author) t e r m r e s e a r c h a n d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n to b r i d g e g a p s in p r e s e n t k n o w l e d g e of r e lationships between police r e s o u r c e s and police effectiveness. 11 p p . (SH) P-Q599 Where Will All the People Go? How Much Will They Dump When They Get There?— Population Distribution, Envi r o n mental Damage, and the Q u a lity of Life. A. H. P a s c a l . M a r c h 19 7 1 . A speech proposing that the affluent so c i e t y is m o r e a n d m ore the e f f l u e n t s o ciety, an d that the q u a l i t y of e x i s t e n c e w i l l be a f u n c t i o n of t h e g e o g r a p h i c d i s tribution of the American population. The s p e e c h a d v o c a t e s a l o n g-term research prog r a n o n t h e n a t u r e of p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n as i t a f f e c t s n a t u r e a n d so ci et y. The rese a r c h would be directed at five tasks: (1) f o r e c a s t i n g t h e s p a t i a l s e t t l e «#»nt p a t t e r n f o r the T1-S- p o p u l a t i o n i n 2 0 0 0 A . D . ; (2) e s t i m a t i n g t h e t h r e a t t o t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ; (3) s p e c i f y i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s ; (4) i d e n t i f y i n g a n d a s s e s s i n g p o l i c y m e c h a n i s m s ; a n d (5) c a l c u l a t i n g the ma g n i t u d e and i n c i d e n c e of costs. 6 pp. (SH) P-4625 Predicting the Demand for Fire Service. J. C h a i k e n , J. E. R o l p h . Hay 1971. An a n a l y s i s of H Y C f i r e a l a r m d i s t r i b u t i o n , a d e s c r i p t i o n o f s o m e a n a l y t i c a l 'm e t h o d s , a n d a n e x a m p l e o f an a p p l i c a t i o n o f e s t i mated alarm i n c i d e n c e rates. Data show s t e a d y e x p o n e n t i a l in c r e a s e s in n o n s t r u c taral fires, e x c l u d i n g brush fires. Using a P o i s s o n d i s t r i b u t i o n , the a u t h o r s d e s c r i b e a method for s h o r t - t e r m pr e d i c t i o n of i n c i d e n c e rates for var i o u s t y pes of f i r e a l a r m s a s a f u n c t i o n of l o c a t i o n , t i m e , m e t h o d of r e p o r t i n g , a n d w e a t h e r . P r e d i c t e d i n c i d e n c e a p p l i c a t i o n s a r e as v a r i e d as l o n g - t e r m p r o b l e m s o f n e w s t a t i o n - h o u s e location, s e l e c t i o n of r e l o c ation and preposi t i o n i n g strategies, a nd a c t u a l d i s p a t c h i n g of u n i t s to i n c o m i n g alarms. The exa m p l e a d d r e s s e s the problem: G i v e n the l o c a t i o n a nd n u m b e r o f u n i t s to be dispatched, which sho u l d be as s i g n e d to a particular alarm? Results include (1) f o r m u l a s f o r u n i t w o r k l o a d a n d a v e r a g e r e s p o n s e time to all i n c i d e n t s as a f u n c t i o n o f r e s p o n s e d i s t r i c t s ; (2) d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a d i s t r i c t b o u n d a r y t h a t m i n i m i z e s a v e r a g e r e s p o n s e t i m e ; (3) c o n d i t i o n s w h e r e i n the e q u i d i s t a n t b o u n d a r y i s d o m i n a t e d by oth e r s . 31 pp . (See a l s o R - 5 3 2 . ) (SH) P-4614 A i d s t o D e c i s i o n m a k i n g in Police Patrol: An O v e r v i e w o f S t u d y Findings. J. S. K a k a l i k , S. W i l d h o r n . M a r c h 197 1 . K s u m m a r y o f f i n d i n g s in a 5 - m o n t h s t u d y of police patrol. With increasing demands on l imited funds, d e c i s i o n m a k i n g aids are n e e d e d t o d e t e r m i n e (1) p r o p e r p a t r o l f o r c e s t r e n g t h ; (2) e q u i t a b l e a n d e f f e c tive d i s t r i b u t i o n of p a t r o l s e r v i c e s by p o l i c e d i s t r i c t a n d t o u r o f d u t y ; (3) e f fective o perational policies and tactics for p o l i c e patrol. I n c r e a s e s in p o l i c e s t r e n g t h h a v e n o t k e p t p a c e w i t h t h o s e in r eported crime, a l t hough they have o ut paced population change. This study sug g e s t s t h a t p o l i c e d e p a r t m e n t s (1) e m p l o y m u l t i p l e c r i t e r i a in d e c i s i o n m a k i n g ; (2) use a more c o m p r e h e n s i v e a p p r o a c h to p o l i c e - r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n , by p r e d i c t i n g d e m a n d for services, by p r e v e n t i n g as well a s r e s p o n d i n g to c r ime, a n d by u s i n g s i m u l t a n e o u s criteria to ensure maintenance o f m i n i m u m s e r v i c e l e v e l s ; (3) c o l l e c t m a n a g e m e n t - o r i e n t e d d a t a ; (4) h i r e c o m p e t e n t c i v i l i a n p l a n n e r s w i t h a c c e s s to t o p p o l i c e m a n a g e m e n t ; (5) u n d e r t a k e l o n g P-4630 Unresolved Questions about Popu lation Distribution Policy: An Agenda for Further Research. P. A. M o r r i s o n . A p r i l 1971. Current thinking about population distri bu t i o n c o n f u s e s t h e p r e s s u r e of t o o m a n y p e o p l e with the c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h e i r m a l distribution. T o p r o m o t e t he d e s i g n of a n ational urban p o p u lation distri b u t i o n p o l i c y , it is n e c e s s a r y to d e f i n e the p r o b lems, i d e n t i f y p r e f e r a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s , and d ev e l o p potential strategies for i n f l u e n c i n g d i s t r i l .cion. Within these areas, 6 tasks are suggested: (1) p r o j e c t f u t u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n s ; (2) i d e n t i f y t h e economic, social, and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of p r o j e c te d d i s t r i b u t i o n p at te rn s ; (3) e v a l u a t e a n t i c i p a t e d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f alt e r n a t i v e s by studying regional and city-size populations with both low- and h i g h - d e n s i t y p a t t e r n s ; (4) a n a l y z e " h i d d e n p o l i c i e s , " i.e., s e c o n d a r y e f f e c t s of e x i s t i n g f e d e r a l p r o g r a m s on p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u u t i o n ; (5) a n a l y z e i n d i v i d u a l a n d a g g r e g a t e d y n a m i c s of the mob i l i t y process, distinguishing forces that m o bilize and retain population or reinforce selected 370 -1 0 0 - ■ i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s ; (6) i d e n t i f y n a t u r a l growth centers, exploring existent success f ul p r o c e s s e s of ch a n g e . 3 p p. (SM) P - 4 6 33 D e s igning for Security. M. I. Liechenstein. A p r i l 1971. T h e s i g n i f i c a n t role t h a t t o t a l p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g an d d e s i g n m a y p l a y in s e c u r i n g g r e a t e r personal safety in future housing is considered. The paper f o c u s e s on the l a c k of c o o r d i n a t i o n a m o n g a r c h i t e c t s , s e c u r i t y experts, and social p s ychologists d u r i n g tho c r u c i a l p l a n n i n g p h a s e s of new c o n s t r u c t i o n , in o r d e r to s t i m u l a t e f u r t her r e search and a c t i o n along an a v e nue that appears most f r u i t f u l for pre v e n t i n g c r i m e and e n h a n c i n g public well-being. T h i s w o r k is p a r t of a b r o a d e r s t u d y on i m p r o v i n g s a f e t y i n u r b a n h i g h - r i s e h o u s i n g that w as s p o n s o r e d by M a y o r L i n d s a y ’s C r i m i n a l J u s t i c e C o o r d i n a t i n g C o u n c i l d u r i n g 1969. 17 pp. Ref. (Author) P— 4 645 Housing Assistance for Low-Income Urban Families: A Fresh Approach. I. S. L o w r y . M a y 1971. A p r o p o s a l for a g e n e r a l p r o gram of housing as£ii»lciiice f o r i o w - x n e o m e f a m i l i e s in ce n t r a l urban areas. Neither new housing n o r m a j o r r e h a b i l i t a t i o n is a p p r o p r i a t e or e c o n o m i c a l for the needs of t h ese families. Instead, t h i s p r o p o s a l r e s p o n d s to t h e most c r i t i c a l problem: too,little effective d e m a n d for ad e q u a t e m a i n t e n a n c e o f exi s t i n g older buildinys. T h e p l a n i s d e s i g n e d to p r o v i d e (1) m o d e s t i m p r o v e m e n t s t o e x i s t i n g h o u s i n g ; (2) e q u a l a s s i s t a n c e f o r a l l e l i g i b l e f a m i l i e s based on a s l i d i n g perc e n t - o f - i n c o r a e f o r m u l a ; (3) r e n t c e r t i f i c a t e s — a n e w d e v i c e to a s s i s t l o w - i n c o m e f a m i l i e s to find t h e i r o w n h o u s i n g , d e a l i n g d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e l a n d l o r d ; (*») a c o n t i n u o u s c h e c k on h o u s i n g q u a l i t y . The plan p r o h i b i t s t ho use of p u b l i c f u n d s fo r s u b sidy of substandard units and creates in c e n t i v e s f o r b o t h l a n d l o r d s a n d t e n a n t s to c o o p e r a t e in h o u s i n g m a i n t e n a n c e and i m provement. 57 p p . (SM) P-4671 Neighborhood Government. D- T. Y a t e s , Jr . Jul y 1971. Advocacy of neighborhood g overnment should b e b a s e d o n a c a r e f u l a s s e s s n e ;t o f p o s s i b l e dangers and deficiencies, as well as merits. T h e o b s t a c l e s to i n c r e a s i n g n e i g h b o r h o o d p o w e r i n c l u d e t h e c o s t s of c o m m u n i t y o r g a n i z i n g in t e r m s o f time a nd effort, community conflict, c i t y -neighborhood conflict, and g e n e r a l p o l i t i c a l c o n flict. To persuade individuals to engage i n c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n , i t i s n e c e s s a r y that, the r e w a r d s of s u c h a c t i o n be g r e a t e r tha n the p e r s o n a l costs. Serious participation is l i k e l y to o c c u r o n l y when n e i g h b o r h o o d government programs offer visible rewards a nd w o r k to s o l v e c o n c r e t e p r o b l e m s . There i s a s p e c i f i c a w a r e n e s s t h a f many u n i o n s and pol i t i c i a n s will fight nei g h b o r h o o d g o v e r n m e n t a n d t h a t t h e y h a v e the p o w e r to d a m a g e o r d e s t r o y i t. T h e r e is a l s o the sense that, w h e r e a s t h ere has been s u c c e s s in d e v e l o p i n g c o m m u n i t y s t r u c t u r e s , it has been difficult to move government toward decentralization, toward more flexible administrative procedures. 13 pp. Ref. (KB) 371 Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you very much, Mayor Mineta. I must say that this strikes me as one of the boldest, most articulate, and most thoughtful statements that this subcommittee has received from any public interest group. I heartily congratulate you upon it. Mayor M i n e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Ashley. Mr. A s h l e y . It is a courageous statement because, of course, the statement is not without its indictments, muted or softened though they may and must be. You say, for example, throughout your statement, that the leverage exerted by Federal activity has enormously benefited our private sec tor, yet it also has had very, very unfortunate results in terms of the ability of the private sector to plan coherently for growth in our cities and our suburbs, and, indeed, in our rural areas, too. You say that this urban policy, if it can be called such, is an acci dental policy, that it is largely of Federal making, and that it is largely one of inadvertence. It seems to me that in many respects there was not very much that local communities could do to control their own devel opment. The F H A program, for example, is one that is not a Federalcity program; it is a Federal-private sector program. Wouldn’t you agree with me that in many respects communities, particularly in that volatile postwar period, were, in effect, the innocent victims of this rather thoughtless, at least in terms of its ultimate ramifications, Federal policy? Mayor M i n e t a . There is no question that with the accumulated cash and other fiscal financial resources that were available following the Second World War, with the FHA policies as they existed at the time, that they did allow for communities like San Jose to grow. These poli cies encouraged developments such as Levittown and many, many other similar communities across the country. Mr. A s h l e y . I am going to call on Mr. Brown now, but before I do I would say this. Of course, your area of greatest knowledge is San Jose. Mayor M in e t a . Yes, sir. Mr. A s h l e y . But the fact of the matter is that you are familiar with other communities and you do speak this morning for the U.S. Con ference of Mayors and the National League of Cities. Mayor M in e t a . That is correct. Mr. A s h l e y . And so your statement represents the thinking not only of the mayor of San Jose with the problems which you have described with such persuasion, but indeed of many other communities, includ ing Toledo, Ohio, that some of us are familiar with. Mayor M i n e t a . That is correct. Mr. A s h l e y . Mr. Brown. Mr. B r o w n . Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you, Mayor Mineta. May I echo the comments of the chairman, I think it is a very fine statement. I think that you have gotten to the heart of the problem better than most have and it is an analysis that I have felt should have been made in many other areas; that is, we need to look at the ramifications of our tax laws to see what impact they have had on many of our problems. I have said we ought to look at the deductibility of interest, for instance, in worrying about the flow of money in tight money times to the high-interest payers because the Federal Government is subsidizing 50 percent of its cost through its 372 tax laws. That is why you don’t get money into individual mortgages. We attempt to come up in a vacuum with an urban growth policy and ignore all of those things that are diametrically opposed to the very policy we are attempting to create. They are disincentives to carrying out that policy. One thing you didn’t mention in your statement; you didn’t talk about the property tax, about the whole idea of an ad valorem tax which says that if you improve your property, you have to pay more taxes. Our tax laws are disincentive to improvement of property in the inner cities. You improve your property and you have to pay more tax. Maybe we should provide that if you improve your property you will pay less in taxes. Mayor M i n e t a . That specific approach is one we are looking into at this moment in California. Under our State assessment laws, we might try to distinguish between capital improvements on the home and what might be termed “plain maintenance.” One of the things our current assessments procedure is doing is to create a negative influence on people who invest in maintenance activity, a disincentive which en courages the deterioration of properties. Mr. B r o w n . But once again you have covered that in your statement because probably you have a State law on property taxation that is an ad valorem tax. Mayor M i n e t a . That is right. Mr. B r o w n . Y ou have to assess at value. So you have no authority really to reverse the tendency to let properties decline in value in the inner city through providing a tax incentive for improvements. Mayor M i n e t a . That is correct. Mr. B r o w n . S o once again you are hamstrung there. Mayor M i n e t a . Yes, sir. Mr. B r o w n . I must get to the floor. Again I want to thank you for your statement. Mayor M in e t a . Thank you. Mr. B r o w n . Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. A s h l e y . Mr. Stephens. Mr. S t e p h e n s . Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mayor Mineta, I am delighted to see you here in Washington and also to have the opportunity of hearing the fine statement you have made. I might point out to you, Mr. Ashley, that in the population growth figures, between 1965 and 1972, there is an increase from 328,300 to 471,400. I f it hadn’t been for my daughter and her husband who moved out there, there would have been only 471,398. Mr. Mayor, I am pleased to renew the acquaintanceship we have had and to say that I believe you have brought forward some things that very desperately needed to be said. In some ways, as I read what you have pointed out, it sounded a little like John C. Calhoun in the era before the War Between the States and the States rights issue. But I do agree that what you have said is true, that the decisions that have affected urban growth are made here in Washington. There has been, definitely, a direct attempt to supervise, so to speak, from Wash ington, to bypass everybody in between the Washington scene and the mayors of cities. 373 President Johnson, as you will recall, designated Vice President Humphrey as a direct liaison between the U.S. Government and the mayors of cities. And, in addition to that, there has been a direct chan nel between Washington and private enterprise. In other words, when a developer would like to get into development, he finds out what the zoning laws are and he doesn’t necessarily consult with the mayor and the council. He goes directly to the Federal authorities and they ap prove or disapprove what he has to offer. Now, Mr. Ashley has had ad hoc hearings and we have discussed at great length the development of area planning. We are in the pres ent housing bill going to propose a pilot project. Mr. Eckfield was with us in hearings we had in Dayton. I think that w^e are searching for some way to get around the policymaking being so drastically per formed by Washington. But, as you say, it is inadvertently done. We all know that only 600,000 of the 2.6 million housing units we need are going to be built under direct Government subsidy. Mr. Romney has made it abun dantly clear that 2 million units are going to have to be built by pri vate enterprise. We have got to do what you say to work together, local governmental entities and the Federal Government, in order to effect some more effective growth management. I think your statement brings out as clearly as any that I have seen in a long time— or ever— that there has to be more cooperation be tween all of us. I for one believe that major development should be the responsibility of our private sector, but that the private sector must be provided proper public guidance. I like the statement very much and I do agree that the policymaking in taxes and otherwise has certainly affected development patterns. Mayor M i n e t a . Thank you. Mr. S t e p h e n s . I will remind you of a story about the little girl who wrote a letter to God. It got into the dead-letter office in Wash ington and was opened. The little girl’s letter said: “Please! We are having trouble. I need $100. My father is sick and my mother is trying to work. We need $100 to eat on.” The fellow felt bad about it but he couldn’t send $100. He sent $5. A fewTmonths later there came a letter addressed to God and it got to the same clerk in the dead-letter office, from the same little girl. He opened it up and she said: “Dear God: Thank you very much for sending me the $100 but the next time don’t send it through Washington, D.C., because they took out $95 before I got it.” I think that is part of our problem. Thank you very much for being here and I will look forward to seeing you soon. Mayor M i n e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Stephens. Mr. A s h l e y . Let me ju st ask one or tw o questions in conclusion. On page 8 of your statement, you say that Federal mortgage policy facilitated individual moves, yet ignored the consequences of the over all movement. The Report on National Growth 1972, issued earlier this year, puts understandable but nonetheless great emphasis on the proper role of individual decisionmaking. I think that you, without commenting specifically on the growth report, and on that particular aspect of it, point out emphatically that the consequences of overall movement that are reflected in the sum total of individual decisions 374 does have enormous implications and spawns enormous problems. I think that was really overlooked in the growth report. What you say and I think what Mr. Stephens has indicated agree ment with is that where people live and how they live is really a mat ter of public, as well as private, decisionmaking. And I might say further that in many respects this is true not only with respect to our assisted housing programs, but with respect to our unassisted housing programs as well, because in toto these units determine where people in fact are going to live. And at the present time, of course, these decisions, even with regard to the section 235 and 236 programs, and indeed our public housing programs, are the decisions almost entirely of private decisionmakers who have a very, very direct pecuniary in terest in the outcome or the results of their decisions. Mayor M in e t a . Mr. Chairman, the summation, I think, of those in dividual moves has created a situation in which, as I recall the figures, something like 73.5 percent of the population lives on 1.53 percent of the land mass here in the United States. I think this is the kind of sig nificant result that we have had from this inadvertent “national urban policy.” Mr. A s h l e y . What you are saying is that the magnet that has drawn people to this very small land mass is a private sector magnet. Mayor M i n e t a . That is correct. Mr. A s h l e y . Not a combination of private and public sector? Mayor M i n e t a . That is right. Mr. A s h l e y . I quite agree with you. Let me finally ask you this: On page 14 of your testimony, you say “yet it is clear that F H A has had far more impact on American housing conditions than all of the moneys going into low-income hous ing projects.” To my mind, the implication of that statement and the implied thrust really of your entire testimony seems to be that regional F H A operations should be subject in some way to a national urban growth policy. To some extent I think that we at least tried to approach this in the housing bill that the subcommittee has just recommended. In effect what we have tried to do there is to provide a more stringent basic mortgage amount which the F H A is authorized to insure, but then allow for a more liberal amount where the particular property will significantly contribute to the comprehensively planned development of the area in which it is located. Clearly this is only a small and, as you would say, piddling step in the direction in which your testimony and my thinking tends to go, but I would like to have such comments as you might wTant to offer with respect to this effort. Mayor M i n e t a . One of the things that that provision would give us at the local level is a handle on planning by which, through a carrot and stick mechanism, wTe could encourage superior design. It is a ques tion of stimulating the development of comprehensive design or com prehensive planning procedures. I think that what the proposal is, is a fine tuning of a specific aspect of an overall urban policy. I think there are bigger, broader areas of concern, but this is the kind of fine tuning that we can use in the short run. 375 Mr. A s h l e y . I think you are right. What you are saying is that since we really haven’t been able to come to grips with the major considera tions in housing location, that instead we try to do it in this way, which is really allowing the tail to wag the dog in many respects. Mayor M in e t a . In fact, I guess another way to put it is that it is a band-aid approach to a greater problem. Mr. A s h l e y . Well, I can only say that I agree with you. I will say this in conclusion: I can’t think of any testimony that more clearly ,focuses on such urgent problem areas. I think that when it is compared with the Report on National Growth, 1972, and other such documents, the very real significance of your testimony will be realized. I am pleased to say that we do look forward to issuing a report later this year which will contain the testimony before this subcommittee and other statements furnished for the record. We expect that that will receive very broad distribution and your contribution will be among those most highly prized, I can assure you. Mayor M in e t a . Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Mr. A s h l e y . Thank you, Mr. Mayor. The subcommittee will stand adjourned until 2 o’clock this after noon. (Whereupon, at 12:15 p.m., the hearing was recessed, to reconvene at 2 p.m. the same day.) A fter n o o n S ession Mr. A s h l e y . The subcommittee will come to order. We are continuing the subcommittee’s hearings on national growth policies and this afternoon our witnesses will be Prof. Alan Rabinowitz, University of Washington, Seattle, Wash., with the American Institute of Planners; Mr. Stanley Waranch, president of the Na tional Association of Home Builders; and Mr. Albert A. Walsh, president, National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Offi cials. Other members have indicated that they will be here shortly, but because we do have three witnesses this afternoon I think it is best if we start at this time. Professor Rabinowitz, if you would be good enough to step forward. Your statement, I see, has an addendum with respect to A IP ’s posi tion on the National Growth Report, 1972. Without objection that document will be inserted into the record following your statement. STATEMENT OF ALAN RABINOWITZ, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, ON BEHALF OF THE AMERICAN INSTI TUTE OF PLANNERS; ACCOMPANIED BY ALBERT L. MASSONI, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL AFFAIRS, AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PLANNERS Mr. R a b i n o w i t z . Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I am Alan Rabinowitz, member of the American Institute of Planners and mem ber of its task force on national development policy and after many years of living in the East I am now associate professor of urban plan ning, University of Washington. 376 We have submitted a prepared statement for the record and for the sake of brevity I would like your permission merely to highlight cer tain aspects of it in testimony this afternoon. Mr. A s h l e y . We will place your full statement in the record. You may proceed. Mr. R a b in o w it z . Fine; thank you very much. On behalf of the membership of the institute, I would like to thank the committee for the opportunity to appear and present our views on the various issues, both explicit and implied, in the President’s First Report on National Growth, and challenges the Congress must face in the interim before the next such report. Mr. A s h l e y . Would you care to identify for the record-----Mr. R a b i n o w i t z . Accompanying me today is Albert L. Massoni, di rector of national affairs for the institute. We would like to commend the subcommittee for its continuing in terest in urban growth policy. Testimony this morning by Mayor Mineta and Arthur Davis are a fine beginning and I see the rest of the schedule is going to contain a very representative group of Ameri cans. Two years ago when our institute appeared before this committee in support of the Urban Growth and New Community Development Act of 1970 we stressed the urgent need for this country to begin de veloping a national growth policy. The final bill passed by this committee and the 91st Congress was consistent with the objectives of the American Institute of Planners. It declared that “the Federal Government * * * must assume respon sibility for the development of a national urban growth policy * * As this committee well knows, the past 2 years have been a time of dramatic change in the institutions of government that are concerned with domestic issues, and a national urban growth policy, which would never have been easy to formulate or articulate in the best of circum stances, is even more needed today than it ever was. And more than ever we need something more than just an inventory of Federal, State, and local agencies and a list of pious hopes. We need both thought ful leadership and effective forums for reconciling deep differences of opinion. There has been a good deal of testimony before the fact that the President’s first report left a great deal to be desired. Without going into the details of our position paper, we noted that it avoided the hard questions and rehashed familiar statistics. Let me be specific about what we felt the deficiencies are. This will be short, because we want to speak on what should happen from now on. First. It fails to show leadership by the executive branch in defining a comprehensive policy; indeed, the report says no such policy is ap propriate, and the Domestic Council even goes so far as to reject the call for an urban growth policy report in favor of a report on national growth, a significantly different matter which is itself hardly treated in the report. Second. It fails to examine the implications of the giving of Federal categorical programs in favor of State-local priorities and procedures. 377 Third. It fails to explain how affirmative Federal policies in hous ing, transportation, environmental improvement, and land-use con trol will be made to work. Fourth. It fails to state what resources will be made available and whether such resources will be adequate for the stated purposes. Fifth. It fails to establish mechanisms by which many different groups of people will be involved in the process by which decisions concerning their urban environment will be made in the future. I want to add to this last point before considering the future. It is important here to say something about how citizens and community groups should be involved in the planning process and it is important to differentiate between the planning process and planners. The lesson of the postwar era in governmental programs in the urban field is the lesson that private enterprise learned long ago, that the consumer is sovereign; the citizen-voter is the key to effective planning and policymaking, and even the best-laid projects will come to nought if the citizen-voter has not been sold on them. And citizens have a way of voting with their feet as well as in the ballot box. People have been leaving the rural nonurban areas for the last few generations; there has to be more than a goal and a policy to bring them back, if that is what we want; it will have to be clear to them that there is a life worth living out there. Similarly, people have been leaving the central cities for the suburbs since the turn of the century, and this trend, more than anything else, is the most important politi cal fact of the 1970’s, especially as the one-man-one-vote rule changes the composition of State legislatures. The first point is that any governmental program, at either the local. State, or Federal level, must be well thought out, w^ell financed, and well administered to have any chance at all of being implemented. Any such program in housing, transportation, health services, educa tion, and environmental improvement must offer something significant to the citizens, if it expects to change the system by which people lo cate their businesses, homes, and places for recreation. Thus the second point is that governmental programs must be sold to the citizen voters, and this means that, from the very beginning, people must be involved in the program. This is particularly true if we are trying to change a complex system that breaks down because ordinary citizens continue to do the ordinary activities of life, buying and selling property, going to work by car, and avoiding troubles, taxes, and costs if they can. So the process by which change and improvements will come to the urban scene is all important. The process is far more important than the plans themselves. The citizens must be heard, and it will take great political leadership to make them listen and participate. Plan ners are people who want to help this process. A planner is not in terested in making a plan to be imposed on the system. He is some one equipped to help the process of intelligent democratic decision making. Yes, we need more rationality and comprehensiveness in the planning process; yes, we need to improve the capacity of State and local government in the area of “planning and management’-; and yes, in the United States of the 1970’s we need to relv upon the democratic process to get an urban growth policy which is comprehensive and 378 implementable. In fact, in order to get useful urban growth strategies and policies, we need to improve both the legislative and executive branches of all levels of government. W e have very high standards for what we think may be included in the next urban growth report and the ones thereafter. We believe that work on that report should start today. We urge both the Congress and the administration to put more of their resources into the process immediately, so that the next report, due in less than 2 years, will reflect greater achievement than the President’s Report on National Growth 1972. 1. The report should show the relationship between the Nation’s fiscal policies— including current thinking on revenue sharing, tax credits, and guaranteed income— to national urban growth strategies. And I think Mayor Mineta’s testimony this morning brought out very strongly that there is an intimate connection between such fiscal policies as tax shelter and what has happened to our urban areas. 2. The report should examine the costs and benefits of major ap proaches, showing, for example, how the net benefits of a dollar spent in rural areas compares to a dollar spent in urban areas, or how a dollar for housing compares to a dollar for transportation. And on this I would like to also add that to get that kind of infor mation about how expenditures are really benefiting the system, we need to have a good deal more of the kind of report that Mayor Mineta talked about. I haven’t seen the Rand analysis, but it sounds like it has gone into a wider range of subjects than most local plan ning reports, and I think it is something that deserves a good deal of serious investigation. I think Mr. Davis this morning, in talking about the possibility for alternative budgets on behalf of the executive de partment, also implies that there has to be the kind of thoughtful anal ysis which is pretty scarce. 3. The report should discuss the relationship between the local pub lic economy and the monetary system, particularly in reference to the impact of inflation and recession on local efforts. And I would like to add here that there may be an intimate rela tionship between the amount of money that the K ation has for revenue sharing, if we adopt it, and the state of the economy, and one of the choices we will have is whether we want to maintain a flow of money to the local public economy for continuation of useful efforts. 4. The report should discuss the allocation of the Nation’s economic resources, not only between the public and private sectors, but among the various functional categories, such as community development, ed ucation, social welfare, and environmental quality. 5. The report is incomplete if it omits a forthright evaluation of progress within the executive departments and the independent regu latory agencies. A most important section of the report should be devoted to an evaluation of the manner in which the partnership between the States and the Federal Government is developing in the new era of national urban growth policymaking. In the words of our critique: Given the nature of the partnership between the Federal Government and the States, who bear the constitutional responsibility for establishing local govern ments, a national urban growth policy requires that certain Federal funds be dis bursed by the States. A wise man will inquire about the stewardship of his part 379 ners, and it is incumbent upon the Federal Government to evaluate each State’s progress in supporting the objectives of national policy. The next National Urban Growth Report, therefore, should contain an evaluation, State by State, of the extent to which funds have been made available to local communities, the extent of reorganization of State fiscal and administrative systems, and the extent to which State and local agencies are planning together for the amelioration of social-economic and physical problems in both metropolitan and rural areas. An important part of the evaluation should be a consideration of the relative merit of categorical and revenue-sharing programs. We also believe that Congress can play an important role in evaluat ing the effectiveness of the process by which national urban goals are being pursued. In effect, it is— in fact it has always been— Congress’ function to evaluate the success and failure of the legislation it has passed— and the consequences of not passing legislation. This function it performs in a number of different ways: Holding hearings, commis sioning reports by knowledgeable individuals, asking questions of the Legislative Reference Service of the Library of Congress, and pro viding funds and leadership for such exemplary organizations as the U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. We submit that the flood of urban legislation and the prospect of wholesale changes in organization of the executive branch and the form of financial assistance by the Federal Government to the Statelocal sector requires a considerably higher level of congressional stewardship than even before. We should like to see a continuing joint committee established and staffed to represent part of Congress’ interest in the subject. I believe that idea was discussed this morning. Its role would be to analyze national goals and growth policies of various legislative proposals. The joint committee needs a high order of information and I would like to point out that the hardest kind of information to get, the kind that would be of most use to the committee, is qualitative rather than quantitative information. A congressional office of policy and planning would support the joint committee and provide it with information and data. The most critical form ojf qualitative information, in our opinion, will be concerned with the readiness of State and local government to function effectively under a system of revenue sharing, combined with a new emphasis on metropolitan areas as the relevant territory in place of the jurisdictional boundaries of separate cities or counties. In our opinion, the only way a State can be ready to move effectively in its own behalf in performing its constitutional function of establish ing necessary forms and procedures for local government is to have an effective planning process as part of its legislative and executive structure. It is clear to us that the criteria for such a process are more stringent and less compartmentalized than they needed to be in former years. I think I should also add there is no one particular stated pat tern of such structure and the work of the American Law Institute, which you will hear testimony on, I guess tomorrow or the next day, indicates the range of possibility. The important thing that is there bea real structure and a real possibility for interaction between the var ious units of government. It is also clear to us that few States have established effective rela tionships between State, regional, metropolitan, county, city, and town agencies within their State. 380 Without such a planning process for and within the State, it is hard to believe that the State can be an adequate partner to the Federal Government as it seeks to articulate and administer national strategies, nor can it even be an adequate partner to its neighboring State. Thus, without such a planning process, the A -95 review process and the other elements of planning suggested by the Intergovernmental Cooperation Act of 1968 may well be a mockery of Federal legislative and execu tive intentions. This concept of each State’s readiness to handle present and future problems is a touchy subject. The Federal Government cannot tell its State and local partners what to do, but it is certainly entitled to make a judgment about how well they are doing it, and Congress, in addition, is able to use a carrot where it cannot use a stick. Just as there might well turn out to be a bonus under the revenue-sharing acts for those States with a certain form of fiscal system, a State income tax, for instance, so there might also be a bonus in the distribution of categorical or functional bloc grants for those States judged by Fed eral Government to have an effective planning and management struc ture in being. It is this kind of qualitative information that we believe the Con gress must have available to it as it evaluates present and future urban growth reports. Perhaps it can get the information it requires from Federal departments. But we are not at all convinced that the executive branch has pulled itself together effectively in order to con sider the goals and implication of all of the things it is doing. We would like to urge that there be a central planning and development co ordination mechanism in the Executive Office of the President. Just as the Joint Economic Committee works with the economic agencies of the executive branch, so the Joint Urban Growth Policy Committee of the Congress might work with a centralized part of the executive. Whatever the means chosen, we do believe that Congress and the executive branch need to have better information about the effec tiveness of the State-local planning process upon which so much of the national urban growth strategy is based. And we also believe that Congress should make sure that adequate resources are available at all levels of government for such effective planning-management processes. We thank you for the opportunity to present our views and would be willing to provide the committee with any additional information. Thank you. (Mr. Rabinowitz’ prepared statement follows:) P repared S t a t e m e n t o f A l a n R a b i n o w i t z , AIP, o n B e h a l f I n s t it u t e of P l a n n e r s of the A m e r ic a n Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee, I am Alan Rabinowitz, Mem ber of the American Institute of Planners Task Force on National Development Policy and Associate Professor of Urban Planning, University of Washington in Seattle. The American Institute of Planners is the national professional plan ning organization devoted to the study and advancement of the art and science of city, regional, state, and national comprehensive planning. The over 7,000 mem bers of the Institute have major responsibilities in government and in private practice working with elected officials as well as with private organizations whose actions and policies directly affect the quality of the national environment 381 and the development of the communities of this Nation. Accompanying me todaj is Albert L. Massoni, Director of National Affairs for the Institute. On behalf of the membership of the Institute, I would like to thank the Com mittee for the opportunity to appear and present our views on the various issues both explicit and implied in the President’s First Report on National Growth, and challenges the Congress must face in the interim before the next such Report. Planning is concerned with the unified social, economic and physical develop ment of communities and their environs and of States, regions, and the Nation. The essential objective of such concern is the same as the basic objective of all government and political action— guiding the patterns and forces of society for the benefit of its people. Planning provides the means by which a unit of govern ment may fulfill its commitment to its people by anticipating and preparing for future needs inherent in the process of growth and change. Thus the primary objective of planning is achieved in improving the effectiveness of government. Two years ago when our Institute appeared before this Committee in support of the Urban Growth and New Community Development Act of 1970 we stressed the urgent need for this country to begin developing a national growth policy. There is still today that same urgent need for the Federal government to estab lish a framework for the development of a national urban growth policy in order to provide the guidelines for a more national redistribution of our population and for the selection of new urban growth centers throughout the United States. Most importantly, such a national growth policy should consist of guidelines for action on a national and regional basis which are flexible enough to meet the goals of specific regions and localities and accommodate national needs at the same time. As a matter of principle the AIP believes that our national growth policy should clearly define several points : 1. The Federal interest in urban areas must be defined. 2. Structuring the role of the Federal agencies and the state and local govern ments in planning and fostering urban growth must be continued and must be strengthened. 3. We must organize methods of coordinating local policies among local, metro politan, regional, and state authorities. 4. We must assure that means of guaranteeing adherence of Federal programs to such local planning is implemented. 5. We must design the appropriate division of fiscal responsibility between levels of government to assure wise investment in urban areas. The final bill passed by this Committee and the 91st Congress was consistent with the objectives of the American Institute of Planners. It declared that “the Federal Government . . . must assume responsibility for the development of a national urban growth policy . . As this Committee well knows, the past two years have been a time of dramatic change in the institutions of government that are concerned with domestic is sues, and a national urban growth policy, which would never have been easy to formulate or articulate in the best of circumstances, is even more needed today than it ever was. And more than ever we need something more than just an in ventory of Federal, State and local agencies and a list of pious hopes. We need both thoughtful leadership and effective forums for reconciling deep differences of opinion. AIP itself created a National Task Force to study this issue and involved a score of government officials, planning consultants and academicians in its de liberations over the two year period. We were prepared to assist in the creation of the first Urban Growth Report and to contribute to the discussion after it was published. In fact, no one from outside the White House staff was involved in the writing of the Report, and so we are contributing as best we can, after the fact, by analyzing its contents, passing resolutions and testifying here today. We had high hopes that the President’s First Report on National Growth would also further our general body of knowledge in the urban field and at the same time respond to the Congressional intent of the 1970 legislation to assist in the development of new ideas and policies. It is the opinion of the Board of Governors of the Institute that the President’s report does not achieve either goal. Subsequent to the unceremonious release of the President’s Report in March, our Institute thoroughly reviewed and com mented on the Report. Based on a critique of our Task Force on National De velopment Policy the AIP Board of Governors adopted a position statement at 8 1 - 7 4 5 O - 72 - pt. 1 - - 2 5 382 its April 1972 board meeting that was critical of the President’s First Report and at the same time reaffirmed the role of planning in coordinating future devel opment patterns in the United States. Both our position statement and the cri tique are appended to the end of our testimony and are being submitted for the record. Without going into the details of our position paper, we noted that it avoided the hard questions and rehashed familiar statistics. Let me be specific about what we felt the deficiencies are: This will be short, because we want to speak on what should happen from now on. 1. It fails to show leadership by the Executive Branch in defining a compre hensive policy; indeed, the Report says no such policy is appropriate, and the Domestic Council even goes so far as to reject the call for an urban growth policy report in favor of a report on national growth, a significantly different matter which is itself hardly treated in the Report. 2. It fails to examine the implications of the giving of Federal categorical programs in favor of state-local priorities and procedures. 3. It fails to explain how affirmative Federal policies in housing, transporta tion, environmental improvement, and land-use control will be made to work. 4. It fails to state what resources will be made available and whether such resources will be adequate for the stated purposes. 5. It fails to establish mechanisms by which many different groups of people will be involved in the process by which decisions concerning their urban en vironment will be made in the future. I want to add to this last point before considering the future. It is important here to say something about how citizens and community groups should be in volved in the planning process and it is important to differentiate between the planning process and planners. TH E NEED FOR LEADERSHIP The lesson of the post-war era in governmental programs in the urban field is the lesson that private enterprise learned long ago, that the consumer is sovereign; the citizen-voter is the key to effective planning and policy-making, and even the best-laid projects will come to nought if the citizen-voter has not been sold on them. And citizens have a way of voting with their feet as well as in the ballot box. People have been leaving the rural non-urban areas for the last few generations ; there has to be more than a goal and a policy to bring them back, if that is what we want; it will have to be clear to them that there is a life worth living out there. Similarly, people have been leaving the central cities for the suburbs since the turn of the century, and this trend, more than anything else, is the most important political fact of the 1970’s, especially as the one man one vote rule changes the composition of state legislatures. The first point is that any governmental program, at either the local, State or Federal level, must be well thought out, well financed, and wTell administered to have any chance at all of being implemented. Any such program in housing, transportation, health services, education, and environmental improvement must offer something significant to the citizens, if it expects to change the system by which people locate their businesses, homes, and places for recreation. Thus the second point is that governmental programs must be sold to the citizen voters, and this means that, from the very beginning, people must be involved in the program. This is particularly true if we are trying to change a complex system that breaks down because ordinary citizens continue to do the ordinary activities of life, buying and selling property, going to wTork by car, and avoid ing troubles, taxes and costs if they can. A single automobile is a great asset; too many automobiles create chaos; citizens must be sold on the need for some controls and some alternatives to the unrestricted use of the private automobile. Similarly, a single family house on a half-acre is a fine thing; but too many single-family houses create urban sprawl, leave too many people unhoused, and may be an inefficient use of our resources of money and land. There is no point in having a housing policy that creates housing projects in which people do not choose to live, or which are too expensive for the work ing man to use, or which are not allowed to be built in the areas of greatest need. There is no point in having a Model Cities program if there is no money to make the cities livable again. There is no point in having a mass transportation program if we cannot convince people to use the new facilities. 383 So the process by which change and improvements will come to the urban scene is all important. The process is far more important than the plans them selves. The citizens must be heard, and it will take great political leadership to make them lis-ten and participate. Planners are people who want to help this process. A planner is not interested in making a plan to be imposed on the system. He is someone equipped to help the process of intelligent democratic decision-making. Yes, we need more rationality and comprehensiveness in the planning process, and yes, we need to improve the capacity of State and local government in the area of “planning and management”, and yes, in the United States of the 19 <Os, we need to rely upon the democratic process to get an urban growth policy which is comprehensive and implementable. In fact in order -to get useful urban growth strategies and policies, we need to improve both the legislative and executive branches of all levels of government. This general point of view is stated more precisely in the policy statement adopted this past April by our Board. CRITERIA FOR TH E NEXT REPORT As to the future, we believe it begins today in creating better mechanisms for generating and evaluating urban growth policies. We urge both the Congress and the Administration to put more of their resources into the process im mediately, so that the next Report, due in less than two years, will reflect greater achievement than the President’s Report on National Growth, 1972. In the critique of that Report which is appended to this statement, we have spelled out in some detail some of the hard questions which we believe should be addressed in future reports. Let me summarize our thinking briefly: 1. The Report should show the relationship between the Nation’s fiscal poli cies— including current thinking on revenue sharing, tax credits, and guaranteed income— to national urban growth strategies. 2. The Report should examine the costs and benefits of major approaches, showing, for example, how the net benefits of a dollar spent in rural areas com pares to a dollar spent in urban areas, or how a dollar for housing compares to a dollar for transportation. 3. The Report should discuss the relationship between the local public economy and the monetary system, particularly in reference to the impact of inflation and recession on local efforts. 4. The Report should discuss the allocation of the Nation’s economic re sources, not only between the public and private sectors, but among the various functional categories, such as community development, education, social welfare, and environmental quality. 5. Lastly, the Report is incomplete if it omits a forthright evaluation of prog ress within the Executive Branch toward inter-agency cooperation, toward im proved procedures for planning, programming, and budgeting, and toward greater cohesion between the Executive Departments and the independent regulatory agencies. A most important section of the Report should be devoted to an evaluation of the manner in which the partnership between the States and the Federal gov ernment is developing in the new era of national urban growth policy-making. In the words of our critique : “Given the nature of the partnership between the Federal government and the states, who bear the constitutional responsibility for establishing local gov ernments, a national urban growth policy requires that certain Federal funds be disbursed by the States. A wise man will inquire about the stewardship of his partners, and it is incumbent upon the Federal government to evaluate each state’s progress in supporting the objectives of national policy. The next National Urban Growth Report, therefore, should contain an evaluation, State by state, of the extent to which funds have been made available to local communities, the extent of reorganization of state fiscal and administrative systems, and the extent to which state and local agencies are planning together for the ameliora tion of social-economic and physical problems in both metropolitan and rural areas. An important part of the evaluation should be a consideration of the relative merit of categorical and revenue-sharing programs. OPPORTUNITY FOR TH E CONGRESS We also believe that Congress can play an important role in evaluating the effectiveness of the process by which national urban goals are being pursued. In effect, it is— in fact it has alwrays been— Congress’ function to evaluate the sue- 384 cess and failure of the legislation it has passed— and the consequences of not passing legislation. This function it performs in a number of different ways: holding hearings, commissioning reports by knowledgeable individuals, asking questions of the Legislative Reference Service of the Library of Congress, and providing funds and leadership for such exemplary organizations as the U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. We submit that the flood of urban legislation and the prospect of wholesale changes in organization of the Executive Branch and the form of financial assist ance by the Federal government to the State-local sector requires a considerably higher level of Congressional stewardship than even before. We should like to see a continuing Joint Committee established and funded to represent part of Congress’ interest in the subject. It’s role would be to analyze national goals and growth policies of various legislative proposals. A Congres sional Oliice of Policy and Planning would support the Joint Committee and provide it with information and data. Of even more importance is to make sure that the Congress has available to it the kind of information that would be most useful for its deliberations, and that kind of information is qualitative rather than quantitative. And qualitative information is, admittedly, the hardest kind of all to get. The most critical form of qualitative information, in our opinion, will be con cerned with the readiness of state and local government to function effectively under a system of revenue sharing combined with a new emphasis on metro politan areas as the relevant territory in place of the jurisdictional boundaries of separate cities or counties. In our opinion, the only way a State can be ready to move effectively in its own behalf in performing its Constitutional function of establishing necessary forms and procedures for local government is to have an effective planning proc ess as part of its legislative and executive structure. It is clear to us that the criteria for such a process are more stringent and less compartmentalized than they needed to be in former years. It is also clear to us that few states have established effective relationships between state-regional-metropolitan-county-city-and-town agencies within their state. Without such a planning process for and within the state, it is hard to be lieve that the state can be an adequate partner to the Federal government as it seeks to articulate and administer national strategies, nor can it even be an adequate partner to its neighboring states. Thus, without such a planning proc ess, the A-95 review process and the other elements of planning suggested by the Intergovernmental Cooperation Act of 1968 may well be a mockery of Federal legislative and executive intentions. This concept of each State’s readiness to handle present and future problems is a touchy subject. The Federal government cannot tell its state and local partners what to do, but it is certainly entitled to make a judgment about how well they are doing it, and Congress, in addition, is able to use a carrot where it cannot use a stick. Just as there might well turn out to be a bonus under the revenue sharing acts for those states with a certain form of fiscal system, where there is a state income tax, for instance, so there might also be a bonus in the distri bution of categorical or functional bloc grants for those states judged by Fed eral government to have an effective planning and management structure in being. It is this kind of qualitative information that we believe the Congress must have available to it as it evaluates present and future Urban Growth Reports. Perhaps it can get the information it requires from Federal Departments. But even when considering the Executive Branch we feel that it lacks the means to effectively consider the goals and implications of its various department, bureau and agency programs and multiple administrative rules and regulations. There needs to be established a central planning and development coordination mech anism in the Executive Office of the President. AIP has since 1969 called for the establishment of such an agency as an arm of Presidential authority which would identify national goals and priorities, coordinate all Federal programs affecting social, economic and physical development, determine realistic costs and seek the appropriations necessary to initiate comprehensive planning and development programs for the satisfaction of domestic needs. It would appear that two bills in various stages of introduction in the Senate, both the Hartke bill on National Growth Policy Planning and the Humphrey bill on Balanced National Growth and Developmnt would begin to make some sense 385 out of the duplicative, confusing and most often, absent system of planning, policy analysis and goal evaluation needed to truly begin to develop a national growth and development policy for this Nation. Even though we haven