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N a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c

T r e

S eptember 1986
T h e

e c o n o m i c

theory

o f rational

expectations

emp h a s i z e s

A c c o r d i n g t o this t h e o r y , i n d i v i d u a l s alter d e c i s i o n s w h e n
policy,

rather

tax r e f o r m

than

plans.

later w h e n

A

the

n e w

rise in e x p e c t e d

apparently has r e d u c e d

expected

policy

future

actions

taxes

o n

rates o f r e turn a n d ,

that individuals

n e w

are

base

decisions

o n

all a v a i l a b l e

information.

i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n g e s their e x p e c t a t i o n s a b o u t future e c o n o m i c

taken.

i n c o m e

O v e r

f r o m

the past

investment

as a c o n s e q u e n c e ,

year,

expectations

in n e w

reduced

such

plant

a n d

h a v e

b e e n

equipment,

affected b y

for e x a m p l e ,

i n v e s t m e n t as a share o f the na t i o n ’
s

i ncome.

Real

business

fixed investment

first h a l f o f 1 9 8 6 ,
w h e n
in

c o m p a r e d

m i d - 1985.

3.8

percent

S o m e

d o w n
with

T h e
of

analysts

uncertainty

about

that,

e x t e n t to w h i c h
It a l s o

distorts

policy d e p e n d s
of tax

bills

G N P

argue

a n d

the

in

the

a

u p w a r d

trend

of

such

first h a l f o f

that the tax

o n c e

r e f o r m

r e f o r m

notion

can

b e

to b e
b y

a variety

unlikely
has

nearly

correct,

b e e n

f r o m

a d d e d

confirms

c h a n g e

in

about

this

complete,

although

of recent

that p a s s a g e
k n o w n

a n d

investment

for the

a n d

w r o n g

prospective


V ie w s


equaled

o n

assessing

in

v i e w

the

uncertainty

course

developments.

T h e

expectations

for

year

m i g h t

rates

tax

of

G N P

increases

in

m i d - 198 3

are

largest,

rather

of return

sharply.
an

to i g n o r e

This

a n d

t o its p e a k
declined

temporarily

analysis

uncertainty

lessening

that d e p e n d s

Uncertainty

rational

investment
expectations

fixed investment,

s o m e

the

about

to a n e n d .

the uncertainty a r g u m e n t

over

the

o n

the
the

howe v e r .
future

tax

passage

uncertainty.

future taxes c o m e

I n this e v e n t ,

to

reduced

emph asizes

rational expectations,

environment.

to h i g h e r e x p e c t e d

of fixed

quite

than

in the

substantial

earlier.

o f return,

appears

future

tax

rates

rise

p e r c e n t o f real G N P

n o t o n t h e d e t a i l s o r e f f e c t s o f a p a r t i c u l a r t a x act. T h e

adjustments

T h e

a

12.5

T h i s d e c l i n e is e v e n m o r e

percent

future

to e x p e c t e d

expected
This

10.7

percent

investment

o f the tax act will further retard b u s i n e s s
incorporated

4.3

s h o u l d b e g i n to accelerate.

reasons.

f r o m

expected

uncertainty

effective,

of uncertainty

j u d g m e n t s

w h e r e

about

o n the probability of tax c h a n g e s generally,

m e r e l y

equipment)

investment

anticipated.

B u s i n e s s i n v e s t m e n t t e n d s to r e a c c e l e r a t e w h e n
c e s s is n o w

such

spending,

debate

bill b e c o m e s

c h a n g e

of

1 9 8 6

effe c t o f this p a r t i c u l a r t a x

relevant

durable

1 3 p e r c e n t d u r i n g t h e last t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f 1 9 8 5 .

c o m p o n e n t

this p r o s p e c t i v e
the

( p r o d u c e r s ’s t r u c t u r e s a n d

about

the previous

structures

real

investment

f r o m

next

perspective

year

or

suggests,

since the general

so

If t hat p r o ­

w o u l d

will b e

h o w e v e r ,

appear
affected

t h a t it is

pattern of tax c h a n g e s

time.

—

T H E
F E D E R A L
R E S E R V E
R A N K of
S T . I X H T S

e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m .

J o h n

A .

T a t o m

______ TOTAL C I V I L I AM EMPLOYMENT#
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MiìNTH

1-85
2—
85

3-85

2-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

4-86

3-86

2-86

1-86

5-86

6-86

7-86
106,587

3*1

106,951

3-85

3.6

4 .2

4-85

2.1

1 .6

- 0 .9

5-85

1.8

1 .3

-0.1

0 .8

6-85

0 .6

0 .0

- 1 .3

-1 .5

- 3 .7

7-85

1.0

0 .6

- 0 .2

0 .0

-0 .4

3.1

8-85

1.4

1.2

0 .6

1.0

1 .0

3.5

i o ¿ , é ?2
106,939
106,601
106,8^1
3 .9

107,210
107,519

9-85

1.7

1.5

1.1

1.5

1 .6

3.5

3 .7

3.5

10-85

1.9

1.7

1 .4

1.8

2 .0

3.4

3 .6

3 .4

3 .3

11-85

1.9

1 .7

1.4

1 .8

1 .9

3.1

3.1

2.9

2 .5

1 .8

12-85

1.9

1.8

1 .6

1 .9

2 .0

3 .0

3 .0

2 .8

2 .6

2*2

2 .7

1-86

2.5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .6

2 .8

3.8

3 .9

4 .0

4 .1

4*3

5 .6

8 .6

2-86

1.9

1 .9

1.6

1.9

2 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .5

2 .3

2 .1

2 .2

2 .0

107,813
107,969
108,206
108,955
- 4 .3

108,561
108,788

3-86

2.0

1.9

1 .7

2 .0

2 .1

2 .7

2 .7

2.5

2 .4

2 .2

2 .3

2 .2

- 0 .9

4-86

1.9

1.9

1.7

1 .9

2 .0

2 .6

2 .5

2.4

2 .2

2 .0

2.1

1 .9

-0 .2

1.8

1.2

5-86

2.0

1.9

1.7

1 .9

2 .0

2 .6

2 .5

2 .4

2 .2

2 .1

2.1

2 .0

0 .4

2 .0

1*8

2 .4
4 .4

6 .4

6-86

2.2

2 .0

2 .2

2 .2

2 .9

2 .9

2 .4

2.8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .5

2 .7

2 .7

1 .6

3 .1

108,892

3 .3

109,110
109,673
109,882

7-86

2.2

2 .2

2 .0

2 .2

. 2 .4

2 .8

2 .8

2.7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .7

2 .7

1.7

2 .9

3 .0

3.7

4 .3

2 .3

8—
86

2.3

2 .2

2 .1

2 .3

2 .4

2 .9

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .6

2 .7

2 .7

1 .9

3 .0

3 .0 - 3 .5

3 .9

2 .7

3 .0

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7*85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

3-86

110,155

IN IT IA L MONTH
•SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTOM OF CHART OPPOSITE PAGE

COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH

1-85
2-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86
96,507

1 .8

96,870

3-85

3 .2

4 .6

4-85

3.1

3 .8

2 .9

5-85

3.1

3.5

2 .9

2 .9

97,104
97,338
97,442

6-85

2.7

2 .9

2 .4

2.1

1.3

7-85

2.7

2 .9

2 .5

2 .4

2.1

2 .9

8-85

2.7

2 .9

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .8

2 .7

4t»672
97,890
98,120

9-85

2.8

2 .9

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .8

2 .8

3 .0

10-85

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

3.1

3 .1

3 .3

3 .7

11-85

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

3 .0

3 .1

3 .2

3 .3

2 .9

12-85

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

3.0

3 .1

3.2

3 .2

3 .0

3 .0

1-86

3 .0

3 .2

3 .0

3 .0

3 .0

3 .3

3 .4

3.5

3 .6

3 .6

3 .9

4 .8

2-86

2 .9

3 .0

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

3.1

3.1

3 .2

3 .2

3 .1

3 .1

3 .2

98,428
9 8,666
98,910
99,296
99,429

1.6

99,484

3-86

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .3

1 .1

0 .7

4-86

2 .8

2 .9

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .0

2 .2

3 .7

5-86

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .5

1 .9

2 .0

2 .6

1.6

6-86

2 .5

2 .6

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2.5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

1 .9

1.3

1 .3

1.5

0 .4

- 0 .9

7-86

2 .6

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2.5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

1.7

Im i

1 .9

1 .4

1.2

à .4

8-86

2 .6

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .2

2 .2

1 .8

1.8

2 .0

1 .6

i« 6

2 .9

2 .4

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1—
86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

99,783
99,918
99,843
100,122P
100,324P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS
SEPTEMBER 5* 19S6

2

EMPLOYMENT
RA T I O SCALE
MI L L I O N S OF PERSONS

R A T I O SCALE
MI L L I ON S OF PERSONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BEG INNI NO JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEV PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION ANO EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SE AS O N A L L Y ADJUSTED

PERCENT




PERCENT
12.0

1 KO

10.0

9.0

8.0

7 .0

6.0

5 .0

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

3

L O U IS

4. 0

CONSUMER PR IC E INOEX FOR A l l URBAN CONSUMERS* SEASONALLY AOJUSTED
iNNIIAI RATES OF fHANGF-------------------

- TERMINAL

IN IT IA I

-2-J35 -

»9&7-100

MONTH

4 - 8 5- 2-&5- 3=A5— 4=85— 5-8S— 6s&S— Z=&5— 8=&5— 9-8S in-«<
-

1 1 -««

— 3=86— à=A6— 5=8£— 6-BA— I- i à -

3.9________________ _____________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________

317.7

_3=A5_

5mQ

3 19 ..2

_*-85

-fr«-6____¿ * û ____£ t ¿ _

320.3

-

4-.Z- .3^4___ 2.*X..

t t l*3

. 3 * 3 ____ i ^ a ____ i * 3 ____ ¿m-B.-

-- ----- —U S -__2JJ1____k ill323.1

2.5

3.4

3.Û

2 .6

2 .6

2 .4

9-85

3 .3

3 .3

2 .8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .4

2 .6

10-85

3.5

3 .4

3.1

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

3.1

3 .4

4 .5

11-ftS

3 .8

3 .8

3 .5

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

4 .1

4 .5

5 .7

6 .9

12-85

3.9

3 .9

3.7

3 .6

3 .7

3 .8

4 .1

4 .5

5 .3

5 .7

4 .5

1-B6

* „9

3 .9

3 .7

3 .6

3 .8

3 .9

4.1

4 .4

5 .0

5.1

4*3

4 .1

3 .2

3.1

2 .9

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .9

3 .0

2 .6

1 .2

- 0 .4

- 4 .6

?.S

2.2

2 .0

2 .0

1.9

1 .8

1.7

1 .6

1.0

- 0 .4

- 1 .9

- 4 .8

-5*0

323.7

2 .3

324.9
326.7
327.9
329.0
327.7
326.3
325.4

4-86

2 .2 '

2 .1

1 .8

1.6

1.5

1.3

1«2

1.1

0 .9

0 .3

— .0
1

- 2 .3

— .3
4

- 4 .1

- 3 .3

5-86

2 .2

2 .1

1.8

1.6

1 .6

1.4

1*3

1.2

1.1

0 .6

- 0 .4

- 1 .4

- 2 .7

- 2 .1

- 0 .6

6-86

2 .4

2 .3

2.1

1 .9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1 .6

1 .6

1.2

0 .4

-0 .2

- I.I

- 0 .2

1.5

3 .9

5 .7

7-86

2 .3

2 .2

2 .0

1.8

1 .8

1.7

1 .6

1.5

1.4

1.1

0 .4

- 0 .2

- o .a

- 0 .1

1.2

2 .7

3 .0

0 .4

8-86

2 .3

2 .2

2 .0

1 .8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1 .6

1 .5

1 .2

0 .6

0.1

- 0 .4

0 .3

1.4

2 .6

2 .7

1*3

2*2

1—
05

2—
85

3—
85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85^10-85 11-85 1 2 -8Í

1 -Í6

2-86

3=55

¥=15

5-86

6-§6

Ï- B 6

326.0

2*2

327.5
327.6
328*2

-----------------------------------------------m rm nnroinn---------------------------------------------PREPARED BY FE0 EK A T RESERVE BAUR o F “ 5T . LO U IS
SEPTEMBER 23* 1986
PROOUCER PR IC E INOEX* FIN ISH EO GOOOS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTED*
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
MONTH

1967 « 100

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5—86

6-86

7-86
291.9

2-85

0 .0

3-85

0 .2

0 .4

4-85

2 .2

3 .3

6 .3

5-85

2 .4

3 .2

4 .6

2 .9

6-85

1.4

1.8

2 .2

0 .2

7-85

1.7

2 .0

2 .4

1.1

0 .2

2 .9

8-85

0 .9

1.0

1.2

- 0 .1

- 1 .1

- 0 .4

- 3 .6

9-85

-0 .1

- 0 .1

- O .i

- 1 .4

-2 .4

- 2 .4

- 5 .0

- 6 .4

292.0
293.5
294.2
293.6

- 2 .4

294.3
293.4
291.8
294.4

10-85

1.1

1 .3

1.4

0 .6

0 .2

0 .8

0 .1

2 .1

11.2

11-85

1 .9

2 .1

2 .3

1.7

1.5

2 .3

2 .2

4 .2

9 .8

8 .5

3 .2

3.3

5 .1

9 .2

8 .2

12-85

2 .4

2 .6

2 .9

2 .5

2 .4

296.4
298.3

8 .0

1-86

1.4

1 .6

1.7

1 .2

1.0

1.5

1.2

2 .2

4 .5

2 .3

- 8 .5

296.1

2-86

-0*2

- 0 .2

- 0 .3

- 0 .9

- 1 .3

- 1 .2

- 1 .7

- 1 .4

- 0 .4

- 3 .1

- 6 .7 -1 3 .3 - 1 7 .8

291.3

- 1 .1

- 1 .2

- 1 .9

- 2 .3

- 2 .3

—
2*9

- 2 .8

- 2 .2

- 4 .7

- 7 .8 - 1 2 .5 -1 4 .4 - 1 0 .9

288.5

3-86

- 1 .0

- 0 .6

287.0

4-86

- 1 .3

- 1 .4

- 1 .6

- 2 .2

- 2 .7

- 2 .7

- 3 .3

- 3 .3

- 2 .8

- 5 .0

- 7 .4 -1 0 .9 -1 1 .7

- 8 .5

- 6 .1

5-86

- 0 .«

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

- 1 .5

- 1 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .3

- 2 .2

- 1 .6

- 3 .4

- 5 .2

- 7 .6

- 7 .4

- 3 .7

0 .2

6 .9

6—
86

- 0 .8

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

- 1 .5

- 1 .8

- 1 .7

- 2 .1

- 2 .0

- 1 .5

- 3 .0

- 4 .5

- 6 .5

-6*0

-2 *9

0*0

3 .2

-0 *4

7-86

- 1 .1

- 1 .1

- 1 .2

- 1 .7

- 2 .0

- 2 .0

- 2 .4

- 2 .3

- 1 .8

- 3 .2

- 4 .6

- 6 .2

- 5 .9

- 3 .3

- 1 .2

0 .4

- 2 .7

- 4 .9

8-86

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

- 0 .9

- 1 .4

- 1 .6

- 1 .6

- 1 .9

- 1 .8

- 1 .3

- 2 .5

- 3 .7

- 5 .0

- 4 .5

- 2 .1

- 0 .2

1*3

- 0 .6

- 0 .6

3 .8

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

288.6
288.5
287.3
280.2

IN IT IA L MONTH
♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R EV ISEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING




PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE SANK OF S T . L Ú Ü IÍ
SEPTEMBER 12* 1966

4




R A T IO

SC A LE

PRICES

RATI O

S C A LE

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BE«INN IN « JANUARY 197« 18 FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (C P I - U ).
CPI-U OATA BE«INNIN« 1083 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTA«ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN«E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AU«UST
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RT S AE
A IO C L
1967-100

PRODUCER PRICES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RT SA
A IO C LE
1967-100

PERCENTA«ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN«E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» AU6UST

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

PROOUCER PR IC E INOEX» FIN ISM EO CONSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*
TERMINAL
MONTH

1967 » 100

____W I T I AL MONTH
L-05_

r.S5_ 3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-65 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86
273*6

2-85

- 0 .4

3-85

-2 .8

- 5 .1

4-85

- 4 .2

- 6 .0

- 6 .8

5-85

-5*5

- 7 .1

-8.1

- 9 .3

272*4
270*8
266*6
266*4

6-85

-4*6

-5 .6

- 5 .7

- 5 .2

- 0 .9

7-85

- 2 .0

- 2 .4

-1 .6

0 .1

5 .2

11.8

8-85

— .9
2

- 3 .3

- 3 .0

- 2 .0

0 .6

1.3

270*9
269*0

-8 .1

266*4

9-85

- 4 .0

- 4 .5

-4 .4

- 3 .9

- 2 .4

- 2 .9

10-85

- 1 .4

- 1 .5

-1 .0

0 .0

2 .0

2 .7

-0 .1

4 .1

21.7

11-85

0*0

0 .0

0 .7

1.8

3 .8

4 .8

3.1

7 .2

17.6

13.6

12-85

1*1

1.3_

2 .0

3 .2

5.1

6 .1

5.0

8 .6

16.0

13*3

- 9 .6 -1 1 .0

270*6
273*7
276*5

13.0

1-86

0 .4

0 .5

1.1

2 .0

3.5

4 .2

3 .0

5 .3

9 .9

6 .2

- 6 .7

274*9

2-86

-1*1

- 1 .2

- 0 .8

- 0 i2

0 .8

1.1

- 0 .4

1.0

3 .5

- 0 .6

- 4 .9 -1 2 .7 -1 8 .3

270*3

3-86

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

- 0 .6

0 .0

0 .9

1.1

- 0 .1

1.1

3.3

-0 .1

- 3 .3

-8 .1

- 8 .8

4-86

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

-0 .4

0 .1

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.2

3 .0

0.2

- 2 .3

- 5 .7

- 5 .4

1*8

1*8

5-86

0 .3

0 .3

0 .7

1.3

2 .3

2 .6

1.7

2 .8

4 .7

2.5

0 .7

- 1 .6

- 0 .2

6*7

9*2

17.2

6-86

0 .3

0 .3

0 .7

1.2

2.1

2 .3

1.5

2 .5

4 .2

2.2

0 .6

- 1 .3

- 0 .2

5*0

6*0

8.2

0*0

2 .7

270*7

1*8

271*1
274*7
274*7

7-86

1.5

1.6

2 .1

2 .7

3.6

3 .9

3 .3

4 .4

6 .1

4 .5

3 .4

2.1

3 .7

8*7

10*5

13*6

11*9

2 5 .2

8-86

2.3

2 .4

2 .9

3.5

4 .4

4 .8

4 .3

5 .4

7.1

5.7

4 .9

3 .9

5*5

10*1

11*8

14*5

13*6

21*1

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

>
0
«0
1
m

4-66

5-86

279*9
17.1

283*6

?-8 ¿

♦DATA FÜR FOUR MONTHS AGO RfcVlSEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING

PROOUCER P R IC E INOEX« FIN IS H E D GOOOSt EXCLÜOING FOOOS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTED«

______________________CQ PJUtiPfeP ANHliAL- RATCS QF XHAN«_________________________
M
TERMINAL
_1_-A5_ 2^85
2-85

1967 » 100

INI TIAL H N
Q TH
3-85

4-85_ 5-85

M

i . 7-»

8-85

9-85 10-65 11-65 12-65___1-66

2-86

3-86_

4^86

5 - 8 6 _ 6^86

7-66

-0*4

_4z85_

6 .9

296*9

11*1

6-85

3 .3

4 .2

4*7

7-85

2 .8

3 .4

3*6

1*6
1*2

299*7

-3*5
-1*6

299*8

0*4

299*3

8-85

2.1

2 .5

2*4

0*4

-1*7

-0*8

-2*0

9-85

1.2

1.4

1*2

-0*7

-2*6

-2 .2

-3*5

-5*1

10-85

2 .0

2 .3

2*2

0*8

-0*4

0*4

0*4

1*6

8*8

11-85

2 .4

2 .8

2*7

1*6

0*7

1*6

1*9

3*2

7*7

6*6

12-85

2 .8

3.1

3*2

2*2

1*5

2*4

2*8

4*1

7*3

6*6

1-86

1.8

2 .0

1*9

0*9

0*1

0*7

0*7

1*3

2*9

1*1

296*0
300*1
301*7
303*3
300*9

-9*1

2-86

0.1

0 .2

-0*1

-1*1

-2*0

-1*8

-2*1

-2*1

-1*5

-3*9

-13*4 -17*5

296*1

3-86

- 1 .0

- 1 .1

-1*4

-2*4

-3*3

-3*3

-3*8

-4*0

-3*9

-6*2

-13*9 -16*1 -1 4 .7

292*2

4-86

-1 .8

-1*9

-2*3

-3*3

-4*2

-4*3

-4 .8

-5*1

-5*1

-7*3

-13*5 -14*9 -13*6 -12*4

289*0

5-86

-1*2

-1*3

-1*6

-2*5

-3 .3

-3*2

-3*6

-3*8

-3*6

-5*3

-9*6

-9*7

-7*0

-2*8

-1 .2

-1*2

-1*5

-2*4

-3*0

-3*0

-3*3

-3*4

-3*3

-4*7

-8*1

-7*9

-5*4

-2*0

3*6

7-86

-1 .9

-2*0

-2*3

-3*1

-3*8

-3*9

-4*2

-4*4

-4*3

-5*7

-8*9

-8*9

-7*1

-5*0

8-86

-1 .9

-1*9

-2*2

-3*0

-3*6

-3*6

-3*9

-4*1

-4*0

-5*2

-8*0

-7*8

-6*1

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-65

9-85 10-85

12-85

1-86

2-86

290*6

7*7

6-86

-♦
.PATA FQR FOUR M N S AM
O TH




-0*4

290*7

-2*5

-7*2 -13*5

267*2

-4*2

-2*1

-5*1

-7*4

-0*8

3-66

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

287*0

IN IT IA L NONTH
REVISED Î0 REFLECT LATE R E P O R T I N G ___________
PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS
SEPTEMBER 12« 1966

6

INDUSTRIAL
RA T I O SCALE
1977-100

1978

PRODUCT I ON*
R A T I O SCALE
1977-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST PRELIMINARY
«REVISED FROM 1984

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

1 N 0 U S T R IA L

P R O D U C T IO N

co*4>ouhoëô ÁNMiAL *A T É¿ ÖF tU A k te
1977 * 100

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
i—
85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4—
86

5—
86

6—
86

7-86
123*2

2-85

5*0

3-85

3 .5

2 .0

4-85

2 .0

0 .5

5-Ä5

2 .2

l.i

I.Ô

3 .0

6-85

1.8

1.0

0 .6

1.4

123.4
123.3

—1.0

123.0
0 .0

123.6
123.%

t-85

1.1

0 .4

0 .0

0 .3

- 1 .0

- 1 .9

8-85

2 .4

2 .0

2 .0

2 .7

2 *6

3 .9

9-85

2 .0

1.5

1.5

2 .0

1.7

2 .3 ~ % . 5

- 1 .Ô

0 .5

0 .0

0 .0

0 .6

- 3 .è

124.4

10.2

12+.3
i¿ 3 .6

-6."5”

10-85

1.0

0 .5

0 .3

tt-8 5

2.1

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.Ö

2 .3

ä*4

1.3

2.4

l2 *3

l¿ —
85

2 .6

¿«3

2 .4

2« 8

Z *8

3 .3

4 .3

¿ .9

4 .2

10.1

8 .0

i—
86

2 .9

2 .7

2.7“

3.1

3 .¿

3 .6

4 .6

3.5

4 .7

6 .7

6 .9

5 .9

1 .6

- 1 .4

T^RT"

2.Ô

"T.7

1 .7

1.9

l.ö

2 .1

2 .7

1 .5

1.9"

"^ 2

l2 % .0
1 2 ?.o
126.2
125.3 ’

— .2
B

123.6

^-86

0. 6

Ö.3

o .2

0 .3

0 .0

O.o

0 .2

- l.l

- 1 .1

ö .o

- 2 .?

— .2 - l i . ? -1 5 .1
6

4-86

l.i

1 .0

1 .0

1.1

1 .0

l.l

1.4

0 .4

0 .6

i.d

- 0 .2

- 2 .T

- 4 .7

— . B ' 11.2
2

0 .6

0 .6

Ó .7

ò.*>

0*5

Ü. 8

- T ^ 2 ' - 0 .1

0 .0

—1.0

- 2 .7

- 4 .7

— .5
3

5—
86

0 .9

'2 .9

124.7
M .f

Í2 V .2
i¿ 4 .¿

- 3 .8

“ ¿ .6

¿ .0

- 2 .*

Ü.U

- l.^ ~

- 2 .5

- 1 .3 "'

2 .4

- ü .i"

1.9

3 .V

- l.U

- 1 .9

— .B
O

¿• J

U.'Z”

1 .9 "

2 .9

1.9

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

6-66

7-86

¿—
86

0 .9

0 *6

0 .5

0.6

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

- 0 .2

— .1
o

0 .7

- 0 .8

7-86

1.Ù

Ô .Ô '

0 .7

Ö.Ä

0 .7

0.7

1.0

0 .2

0 .3

l.l

- 0 .2

fl-86

1.1

0 .9

0. 8

0 .9

'(r;*

0 .8

1.0

0 .3

0 .4

1.2

0 .0

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

4-86

5-86

124.6P
124.6P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM INARY




PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
S E P r ERBER 16» 1986

7

"

PERSONAL
R A T I O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

INCOME

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
SEASO N A LLY AD JUSTEO

R A T I O SCALE
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3 .0
2.8

2.6

2.4
2.2

2.

2.0

1 .

1.8

1.6

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN9E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL INCOME
COMPOUMOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL
MONTH
1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

Ul

M
1
0
»

'BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L MONTH

3-65

9 .0

4-85

9*7

8 .5

5*8

3 .6

2 .7

5 .9

4 .4

3 .9

0 .4

7-85

6-85

65
9-85 10-65 11-65 12—

1-86

2—
86

3-66

4-66

5-86

6—
66

7-86

- 5 .0

6-85

6-85

ll.l

5-85

5-85

12*2

3*258.3
3 ,2 7 3 .8

5 .9

3 .3 0 2 .7
3 ,2 8 6 .5
3 ,3 0 4 .9

6 .2

5 .5

4 .3

3 .9

1.5

5 .0

3 .9

w
\
CD
1
<
0

3 ,3 1 5 .4

7-85

5*0

3 .9

3 .5

1 .6

3 .9

2 .9

9-85

5 .0

4 .0

3 .7

2 .3

4 .2

3 .6

3.4

5 .0

5*4

4 .6

4 .5

3 .4

5 .2

4 .9

5 .3

7 .0

11-85

5*4

4 .7

4 .5

3 .6

5 .2

5 .0

5 .2

6 .4

7.1

5 .1

12-85

6 .5

5 .9

5 .9

5 .3

6 .8

7 .0

7 .6

9.1

10.5

11.2

17.5

1-86

5 .9

5 .3

5 .3

4 .7

5 .9

5 .9

6 .2

7.1

7 .7

7 .2

8 .3

2-86

5 .9

5 .4

5 .4

4 .8

6 .0

6 .0

6 .3

7 .0

7 .5

7 .0

7 .7

3.1

6 .5

3-86

5 .8

5 .3

5 .2

4 .7

5 .7

5 .7

5 .9

6 .5

6 .8

6 .3

6 .6

3 .2

5 .0

3 .5

4-86

6 .4

6 .0

6 .0

5 .6

6 .6

6 .6

7 .0

7 .6

8 .0

7 .8

6 .3

6 .2

6 .4

9 .3

10-85

1 .9

3 ,3 2 0 .5
3 ,3 3 3 .9
3 ,3 5 8 .3

9 .1

3 ,3 7 2 .3
3 ,4 1 6 .0
3 ,4 1 7 .4

- 0 .2

3 ,4 3 5 .3
3 ,4 4 5 .1
3 ,4 8 6 .6

15.5

5-86

5.8

5 .4

5.4

5 .0

5 .9

5 .8

6 .0

6 .5

6 .7

6 .4

6 .6

4 .5

5.7

5 .5

6 .5

- 1 .9

6-66

5.5

5 .1

5.1

4 .6

5 .4

5 .4

5 .5

5 .9

6 .0

5 .6

5 .6

3 .8

4 .6

4 .1

4 .3

- 0 .8

0 .2

7-86

5 .4

5 .0

5 .0

4 .6

5 .3

5 .2

5 .3

5 .7

5 .7

5.4

5 .4

3 .6

4 .4

4 .0

4 .2

0 .7

2 .0

3 .8

5 .2

5 .2

5 .3

5 .6

5 .6

4 .1

4 .5

5-65

6-85

7-65

8-85

6-86

7-86

5 .4

5 .0

4 .9

1—
85

6-86

4*6

2-85

3-85

4-85

3 .9

4 .4

4 .1

4 .2

1 .6

2 .6

9-85 10-65 I t —
85 12-05

1-66

2-66

3-66

4-66

5-86

5 .3

5 .3

I N I 11AL H4JNIH
P- PRELIMINARY




3 ,4 8 1 .3

SEPTEMBER 2 2 , 1966

8

3 ,4 6 1 .9
3 ,4 9 2 .6
3 ,5 0 5 .3 P

"

RETAIL SALES
R A T I O SCALE
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

1978

1979

R A T I O SCALE
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JULY, AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

R ET A IL SALES

CflHPUUMDEP ANNUAL RATES Of CHAMfiE
£f_

OOLLARS

MONTH
1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-06

4-06

5-06

6-86

7-06
111,935

2-85

16*6

3—
85

8*4

0*7

4-85

14*3

13*1

27*1

111,999
114,256
113,992

5-85

9 .8

7 .6

11*2

-2*7

6-85

6*5

4 .2

5*4

-4*1

-5*4

7-85

7*6

5 .9

7.2

1*3

3 .4

12*9

8-85

9*0

7 .8

9*3

5*3

8*1

15*5

18.1

9-85

11*9

11.3

13*1

10*5

14*1

21*5

26*0

34*3

119,110

3 .8

4*3

0*9

i* 7

3*5

0*6

-7*2 -35*9

114,785

5*4

4*2

4*6

1*8

2*5

4*2

2*1

-2*7 -17.2

12-85

6*3

5*3

5*8

3*4

4*4

6*1

4*8

1*7

-7*4

11*4

15*9

1-86

6*2

5 .3

5*8

3*6

4*4

5*9

4*8

2*3

-4*4

9*2

10*4

5*1

2-86

5*6

4*7

5.1

3*1

3*8

5*0

3*9

1*7

-3*8

6*4

6*3

1*8

-1*5

10-85
11-85

113,460
114,620
116,224

115,433

7*0

116,861
117,349
117,200
116,684

4*8

3*9

4*2

2*3

2*8

3*8

2*7

0*7

-4*0

4*0

3*3

-0*6

-3*4

-5*2

5*2

4*4

4*7

3*0

3*6

4*5

3*6

1*9

-2*0

5*2

4*8

2*2

1*3

2*7

11*1

5-86

5*5

4*8

5*1

3*6

4*1

5 .0

4*3

2*8

-0*6

5*9

5*7

3*8

3*4

5*1

10*7

10*2

6-86

5*3

4*7

4*9

3*5

4*0

4 .8

4*1

2*8

-0*2

5*5

5*3

3*3

4*6

0*0

6*5

2*9

7-86

5*2

4*6

4*8

3*5

3*9

4 .7

4*0

2*9

0*1

5*2

5*0

3*5

3*3

4*3

6*0

5*3

3*0

3*0

8-86

5 .4

4*9

5*1

3*9

4*3

5 .0

4*5

3*4

1*0

5*7

5*5

4*3

4*2

5*1

7*3

6 .4

5*2

6*3

9*7

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-06

4-06

5-06

6-06

7-86

1-85

tr
<
D
1
<
M

3-86
4-86

3*6

117,715
118,675
118,960
il9 * 2 5 8 P
120,178E

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PR E L I M I N A R Y
E— E S T I M A T E D




PR E P A R E D BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUÍS
SE P T E M B E R 12, 1986

9

HOURLY COMPENSATION, B U S IN E S S SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE----TERMINAL
QUARTER

1977*100

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-81

4-81
1-82

8*4

1-82

4-81

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

l- 8 £

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
147.6

6 .5

151.3

10.4

153.8

2-82

7 .9

8.6

6 .8

3-fi 2

7 .8

8.2

7 .1

7 .5

4-82

7 .1

7 .2

6 .2

5 .9

4 .4

1-83

6 .6

6 .6

5 .7

5 .3

4 .3

2-83

6 .0

5.9

5 .0

4 .6

3 .7

3 .3

2 .5

3-83

5 .4

5.3

4 .4

4 .0

3 .1

2 .7

2 .0

1.5

3.1

3 .4

4-63

5 .4

5.3

4 .6

4 .2

156.6
158.3
159.9

4 .1

3 .6

3 .3

160.9
161.5
163.6

5 .3

165.9

1-84

5 .4

5.3

4 .7

4 .4

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

4 .2

5 .5

5 .7

2-84

5.2

5.1

4 .5

4 .2

3 .8

3 .7

3 .6

3 .9

4 .6

4 .3

2 .9

3-84

5 .2

5.0

4 .5

4 .3

4 .6

4 .4

3 .8

4 .6

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

4 .0

167.1
169.0
170.6

4-84

5 .1

4 .9

4 .5

4 .2

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

4 .0

4 .5

4 .3

3 .8

4 .2

3 .8

1-85

5 .0 _

4 .9

4 .4

4 .2

3 .9

3 .8

3.8

4 .0

4 .4

4 .2

3 .9

4 .2

3 .9

4 .0

2-85

5 .0

4 .9

4 .5

4 .3

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .1

4 .5

4 .4

4 .1

4 .4

4 .4

4 .6

5 .2

3-85

5 .0

4 .9

4 .5

4 .3

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .2

4 .5

4 .4

4 .2

4 .4

4 .4

4*6

4*8

4 .4

172.3
174.5
176.4

4-85

4 .9

4 .8

4 .4

4 .3

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .1

4 .4

4 .3

4 .1

4 .3

4 .2

4 .3

4 .4

4 .1

3 .7

1-86

4 .8

4 .7

4 .3

4 .1

3 .9

3 .9

3 .9

4 .0

4 .2

4 .1

3 .9

4 .0

3 .9

4 .0

3 .9

3 .5

3 .1

2 .5

2-86

4 .7

4 .6

4 .2

4 .1

3 .8

3 .8

3.8

3 .9

4 .1

4 .0

3 .8

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

3 .7

3 .4

3 .0

2 .7

2 .9

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

178.0
179.1
180.4

IN IT IA L QUARTER

OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, B U SIN ESS SECTOR
_________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

1977*100

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-81

4-81
1-82

- 2 .9

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
9 9 .9

— .4
5
- 0 .4

9 9 .8
100.2

2-82

- 1 .4

0 .6

1 .6

3-82

- 1 .0

0.5

1 .0

0 .4

4-82

- 0 .2

1.1

1 .6

1 .6

1-83

0 .4

1.6

2 .1

100.3
101.0

2 .8

2*3

3 .2

101.9

3 .6

103.5

2-83

1 .2

2 .4

3 .0

3 .3

4 .3

5 .0

6 .4

3-83

0 .8

1.8

2 .1

2 .2

2 .7

2 .6

2 .2

- 1 .9

4-83

1.1

1.9

2 .3

2 .4

2 .8

2 .8

2 .5

0 .6

3 .1

103.0
103.8
104.9

1-84

1 .4

2.2

2 .5

2 .7

3 .0

3 .1

2 .9

1.8

3 .7

4 .3

2-84

1 .5

2 .2

2 .5

2 .7

3 .0

3 .0

2 .9

2 .0

3 .4

3 .5

2 .7

3-84

1 .4

2.0

2 .2

2 .3

2 .6

2 .5

2 .3

1 .5

2 .4

2 .2

1 .1

- 0 .4

4-84

1.3

1.8

2 .0

2 .1

2 .3

2 .2

2 .0

1.3

1 .9

1.6

0 .8

- 0 .2

0 .0

1-85

1.2

1.8

1 .9

2 .0

2 .1

2 .0

1.8

1.2

1 .7

1.5

0 .8

0 .1

0 .4

0 .6

2-85

I* ?

1.8

2 .0

2 .0

2 .2

2 .1

1 .9

1 .4

1.9

1 .7

1.1

0 .8

1 .1

1 .7

2 .7

1 05.6
105.5
105.5
105.7
106.4
107.3

3-85

1 .4

2 .1

2 .1

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

1«6

2 .1

1.9

1.5

1 .3

1 .7

2 .3

3 .1

3 .4

4-85

1.2

1.6

1 .7

1 .7

1 .8

1 .8

1 .6

l.i

1 .5

1.2

0 .8

0 .5

0 .7

0 .9

0 .9

0 .0

- 3 .3

1-86

1.3

1.7

1 .8

1 .8

1 .9

1 .9

1 .7

1 .3

1 .6

1.5

1.1

0 .9

1 .1

1*4

1 .5

1*1

0 .0

3 .4

2-86

*•2

1.6

1 .7

1 .7

1 .8

1 .7

1 .6

1 .2

1 .5

1.3

1 .0

0 .8

0 .9

1 .1

1.1

0.8

- 0 .1

1 .5

- 0 .4

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-05

4-85

1-86




1 06.4
107.3
1 07.2

I N IT IA L QUARTER

NtefrAft66' feV PÉfttÉftÀL ftg & R V S fcANK Ófr ST . ~L fiÜ fS
AUGUST 2 ? , 1986

10

P R O D U C T IV IT Y ,
RATI O

C O M P E N S A T IO N ,

AND

LABO R

C O STS
RATI O

S C A LE

1977- 100

SOURCEt
P ER CEN TA BE S ARE ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANBE F M
L A T E S T DA T A P L O T T E D «

PE RI ODS

SCALE

1 977- 100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

U.S.

DE PARTME NT OP LABOR

INDI CATED.

2N0 OUARTER
PREPAREO BY F EDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

LOUI S

UNIT LABOR COSTS, B U SIN ESS SECTOR

__________________ CQHPOWtDEP A N
M UAl .RATES. QE CHANCE__________________
QUARTER
3-81
4-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-64

1-65

2-65

3-65

4-65

1-66

12.5

147.6

1-82

11.5

10.4

2-02

9*4

7 .9

5 .4

3-82

8 .9

7 .6

6 .3

4-B2

7 .3

151.5
153.5
156.2

7 .2

156.8

6 .1

4 .7

4 .3

1 .5

4 .8

1-63

3 .5

2 .9

0 .8

0 .0

156.8
155.5

2-83

4 .7

3 .4

2 .1

1 .3

— .6
0

- 1 .7

- 3 .3

3-63

4 .5

3 .4

2 .3

1 .7

0 .4

0 .0

0 .0

3 .4

4-83

4 .3

3 .3

2 .3

1 .8

0 .8

0 .6

0 .8

2 .8

2 .3

1-64

4 .0

3.1

2 .2

1 .7

0 .9

0 .7

0 .9

2 .3

1.8

1.3

2-84

3 .6

2.8

2 .0

1 .6

0 .8

0 .6

0 .8

1 .8

1.3

0.8

0.3

156.8
157.7
158.2
158.3

3-84

3 .7

3 .0

2 .3

1 .9

1.3

1.2

1 .4

2 .4

2 .2

2.1

2 .5

4 .9

4-64

3 .7

3 .0

2 .4

2 .1

1.5

1 .6

1.8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

3 .0

4 .3

3 .8

1-85

3 .7

3.1

2 .5

2 .2

1 .7

1 .8

2 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

3.1

4 .1

3 .7

3 .5

2-85

3 .6

3.0

2 .5

2 .2

1 .8

1.8

2 .0

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .9

3 .6

3 .2

2 .9

2 .2

3-85

3 .5

2 .9

2 .4

2 .1

1 .7

1 .7

1 .9

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .6

3 .1

2 .6

2 .2

1 .6

1.0

4-85

3 .7

3.1

2 .7

2 .5

2 .1

2 .2

2 .4

3 .0

2 .9

3.0

3.2

3 .8

3 .5

3 .5

3 .4

4 .1

7 .2

1-86

3 .4

2 .9

2 .5

2 .3

1.9

2 .0

2 .1

2 .6

2*6

2 .6

2.7

3 .1

2 .8

2*6

2 .4

2 .4

3 .2

- 0 .7

2-66

3 .4

2.9

2 .5

2 .3

2 .0

2 .0

2 .2

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .8

3 .1

2 .8

2 .7

2 .5

2 .6

3*1

1 .1

2 .9

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-64

2-84

3-84

4-64

1-65

2-65

3-85

4-65

1-86




160.2
161.7
163.1
164.0
164 .4
167.3
167.0
168.2

IN IT IA L QUARTER

P R E P A R E O BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST* LOUIS
A U G U S T 27, 1 9 8 6

11

GROSS NATIONAL PROOOCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS
---- CÖHPOUNOEO SWWAL RATES (J E CHANCE------

QUARTE*

I nIT Ial

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3 -8 i

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

4-Ö1
1 -8 2

0« 8

2 -8 2

2*6

2 .9

Z .b

2 .0

4 .3

2*9

3 .1

4 .3

3 .4

1- 8
T

"

" 2 - Ï3

3-33

1-54

-¥=03

2-84" 3^-8*

4-84

1-85 T - 8 5 “T-85

"

4-^05

2 .5

4 -8 2

4 -8 2

6.2

3-82

3 -8 2

1.9

B IL L IO N S OF
" P ULLARS
ANNUAL RATES
l-B«-

3*114.4
-

■

0.2

3 * i l 2 . 6
"

3 *

1 5 9 .5 "

'

3 »179.4
4 .2

3 * 2 1 2 .5

1 -8 3

3 .5

3 .9

4 .9

4 .5

5 .5

6 .8

2-83

4 .8

“ 573"

6 .5

6.6

8. Ü

v .v

l i . i i

3 -8 3

5 .4

5 .9

7 .0

7 .1

8 .3

9.7

1 1 .2

9 .*

4-Ö3"

6*2

6 .7

7 .7

8.CT

9 .1

1 0 .4

11. 6

ÌU .9

1 ^ .4

3*203.6
3*367.4
3*443.9
3 * 5 4 5 .6

1-84

7*0

7 .6

8 .6

9 .0

1 0 .1

1 1 .3

1 2 .*

1 3 .6

1 4 .9

3*6T0.9~

2-84

7.1

7 .6

8 .6

8 .9

9 .8

LU. f

1 1 .5

1 1 .2

1 1 .8

1 1 .5

3*743.8

3-84

7 .0

7 .5

8 .3

Ô .5

9 .3

l O . i

1Ü. 6

1 0 .1

10.3“

4— 84

6 .9

7 .3

8.0

8 .2

8.8

1-85

6 .9

7 .2

7 .9

6 .1

2-65

6 .8

t.l

7 .7

7 .9

9 .7

7.1

t». i

¥ .2 "

8 .5

6. %

5 .5

3*799. T
4 .9

3*445.6

9.4

9 .8

9 .3

8.6

9 .1

9 .4

8 .9

B .tT

8. 1

6 .5

"5.9'

5 ^ 9

0 .0

8 .4

8.8

9 .0

8.5

8 .4

7 .7

6 *4

*►.9

5 .8

6 .3

7 .6

6 .4

6. 1

6 .1

6 .5

6 .3

6 .8

'

'

”

3 *9 09 .3
3 *955 .TT

3-Ô5' '

6 .8

7 .1

7 .7

7 .8

8.2

8 .6

8.8

8.3

8.2

4-85

6 .7

7 .0

7 .5

7 .6

8.0

fl.4

8 .5

8 .1

7*9

7 .4

6 .3

6.0

6*0

6.j

6.1

6«

1-86

6 .7

7 .0

7 .*

T .5

7 .9

8. 2

8 .3

7 .9

7 .7

7 .2

6 .3

6 .1

6.0

6 .3

6.1

6 .2

6 .0

6 .2

2—86

6 .5

6 .7

f.2

7 .2

7 .5

/•8

” 7 .9

/•4

1 .3

6 .8

5«C>

5 .5

5 .0

5 .4

" 5 .3

4 .8

4 .3

2 *6

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

" 5~.9“

1—
84

i

% *U 4 U .9

4 * ü o i. f

5 .8

9 * 1 9 9 .2
4 * 1 7 3 .ò

IN IT IA L QUARTER

GROSS NATIONAL PROÜUCT IN 1962 OOLLARS
tONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATÉS OÉ CHANGE
B IL L IO N S OF
"Dw x w n r

IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-03

4-03

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-04

f-05 "¿- 0 5 “

3-ff* "4-T5

3*219.0

-5 .5

1-82

*5« 7

-5 .9

2-82

- 3 .4

3-82

- 3 .4

- 2 .7

•

4-81

1
f>
s

3-81

ANNUAL RATES
1-8S"

3 * ir o . 4
3 * 1 J9 .9

1 .2
- i.ö

1-83

- 1 .6

3 * 154.5

- 3 .2

0
.6
2
.0

4-82
- Ò .8

3 * i3 ? .3
3 * 106.6

3 .5

0
.8

2 .2

2 .5

4 .4

6 .4

9 .3

3-83

0
.6

1 .5

2 .8

3 .2

4 .8

6 .3

7 .7

6 .0

4-83

1.4“

2 .2

3 .5

3 .8

5 .3

6 .5

7 .5

6.7

7.3

1-84

2 .2 “

3 .1 '

4 .2

4TT~

6
.0

7.2

81
.

7 .7

8 .5

9 .8

2-83

3*256.3
3 *306.4
3*365.1
3 *444.7

2-84

2* “
.

3 .3

4 .3

4 .7

5 .9

6 .8

7 .5

7 .0

"7.*

T i4

5 . IT

3-84

¿ .4

3 .2 '

4.1

4 .5

5 .4

6 .2

6 .6

6.1

6.1

5. f

3 .r

3 .0

3 .9

4 .2

5 .0

5 .6

5 ;9

5 .3

5 .1

9 .0

4-04

"

3*467.1
3*507.4

¿ m i"

2 .9 "

~

IW - ■

r.5”
2. 3

3 * 5 2 0 .4
3 * 5 4 7 .0

1-8 5

¿.4

3 .0

3 .8

4.8

5 .3

5 .5

5 .0

4 .8

4 .3

3 .0

¿ .3

2-85

2 .4

3 .0

" 3 .7

4 .6

5 .Ù

5 .1

4 .6

4 .4

9 .0

2 S' '
.

¿m5~ "ZV3T

¿ . I

2 .3

3 - 8 5

2 .5

3 .1

3 .7

4 .5

4 .9

5 .0

4 .6

4 .4

9 .0 "

3 .T

¿ •t '

3 .2

3 .*

2 .9

2 .0

i.l

3 .1

3 .9

2 .5

3 .0

3 .6

“ * 73~

4r r _

W19

4 .3

4TL

3 .0

18
—
6

2 .5

3 .0

3 .6

4 .3

4 .6

4 .7

4 .3

4 .1

3 .0

2-06

2 .4

2 .9

3 .4

3 .6

4 .1

4 .3

4 .9

4 .u

j.b

•5.%

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-03

” "4 -T 5

3 -8 1




4-03

"

2 .9

z .6

3 .Ü

2T7~~

2 .7

'

" Z .7 "

2 .5

1-04

2-84

2 .T T

3 .1

2 2
.1 .6
3-04

4-04

1-05

"
“

3 * 5 6 7 .6
4 .1
~ 3 .1

—

3 * 6 4 )3 .6
3 * 6 2 2 .3

2 .1

3 * 6 3 9 .9

3 .3

2 .9

3 .0

2 * 6

2
.1

2 .2

0 .6

4-05

1-06

2-05

3-05

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO UIS
SEPTEMBER 18, 1986

12

GROSS N A T I O N A L P RO D U C T
RATIO SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
RATIO SCALE
DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

-------u ---------- u _ i ------ L L ----1— u ------- u ----------1
—
1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983
S O U R C E «

P E R C E N T A G E S

A R E

L A T E S T

P L O T T E D «

D A T A




A N N U A L

R A T E S

2 N D

O F

C H A N C E

F O R

P E R I O O S

1
------ 1
---------- 1
—
1984
U .S .

1985
D E P A R T M E N T

l------2

1986
O F

C O M M E R C E

I N D I C A T E D .

O U A R T E R

PREPARED

13

BY

FED ERA L

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

. 7

GENERAL PRICE

INDEX*

R A T I O SCALE
1982- 100

1978

R A T I O SCALE
1982- 100

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

*AS USED IN NATIONAL INCONE ACCOUNTS

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt 2ND OUARTER
RAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR MOSS NATIONAL PROOUCT

-----------tóHtWkteò

3-81
4-81

kkkùÀL HAT« ÖF

CHAN6E------------

INITIAL QUARTER

TERMINAL
4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

2-83

1-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

i-U

£-85 "

4 6 .8

8*3

9 8.2

1-82

7*1

5 .9

2-82

6*4

5 .4

5 .0

9 9 .4
lOU.O

3-82

6*2

5 .5

S.4

5*8

4-82

5*7

5 .1

4*8

4*7

3*6

1-83

5*3

4 .7

4*4

4*2

3*4

3.2

4 .4

4*1

i* 4

3*3

3*2

3*2

2-83

lO l.T
1 0 2 .5

103.3
104.2

3-83

4*8

4 .3

4*0

3*8

3*4

3,3

3 .3

3 .5

4-83

4*8

4 .3

4*1

4*0

3*6

3 .6

3.8

4*1

4*7

1-84

4*8

4 .4

4*2

4*1

3*8

¿ .8

— 4*0

4*3

4*7

2-84

4*6

4 .2

4*1

3*9

3*7

3.7

3-84

4 .5

4 .2

4*0

3*9

3*7

3.7 “ “ 3.7 - 3 * 9 “

4-84

4*4

4 .1

3*9

3*8

3*6

3.6

3.8

4*0

1 0 $ .4
106.6

4*ó

4.1

3*8

3*9

^•7“

i. r -

3*6

3.3“

109.2

."3.5"

3.4

3.5

3 .2

3 .3

i.T ~

3 .2

3*5

"in -

¿ .3

3.3'

3 .5

3*3

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3.1

3.3

* .3

3*2

3 .0

3 .0

3.0

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4 .4

4 .1

3*9

3*8

3*6

3 .6

3 .7

3*8

3.8

3*6

3*4

2-85

4*3

4 .0

3*9

3*8

3*6

3 .6

3 .6

3*7

3.T

3*6

3-85

4*2

3 .9

3*8

3*7

3*5

3 .5

3.5

3*6

3*6

3*4

4-85

4*1

3 .9

3*8

3*7

3*5

3.5

3.5

3*6

3*6

1 -8 6

4*1

3 .8

3*7

3*6

3*4

3 .4

3 .5

3*5

2 -8 6

3 .9

3 .T

3*6

3*5

3*3

3 .)

^*3

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83




108.3
3 .4

3.5
3.4

1-85

~

3.4
3.4

•

3*8

IÖ 7 .4

3*0

"3 .7

llG .z
III.I

3 .3

3 .6

3.6

2.T3.T”
¿.9“

3 .1

2 .5

2 .9

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .T "

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

¿ .* ■
3 .2

ill.8
1É2.8

4-85

1 1 3 .5
1.8

114.U

1-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
SEPTEMBER 18» 1986

14

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
----------- co * p o u W j e d " a **U a l AATfcS o * ¿U a M £ -----------TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-81
4-81

B IL L IO N S OF
—

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-81

1-82

2-82

3—
82

4^82

1^83

2=83

3-83

4=83

1=84

2=84

3=84

¥=8?

1-8 5

2=55

3=53

¥=55

r o m a n —

ANNUAL RATES
1=55“

4*0

1-82

5.8

7 .6

"¿-82

"577“

6.6

“3=
52"

"6 7 4 "

4-82

772

8 .0

8 .1

9 .4

10.3

1-83

6 .9

> .5

7 .5

8 .2

8 .0

5 .7

2-83

1* 8

8 .4

8. 6

9 .6

9 .3

13.0

3-83

8*0

8 .5

8 .7

9 .5

9 .5

4 .3

11.1

"9".3

8*2

8 .7

8 .9

9 .4

9 .6

$ .4

10.6

9 .5

9 .7

5.2

8 .7

8 .8

9 .5

" 9 .4

9 .2

10.1

9 .2

9 .T "

4-83
"

2 ,0 2 3 .8 '

7“
"772” "771-- 5 5

T , D W . 6 '

_

2 ,1 1 1 .0
2 ,1 4 6 .6
2 ,2 1 3 .U
¿ ,2 6 2 .0
2 ,3 1 3 .0
2 ,9 6 3 .0
2 ,4 1 6 .1

8 .9

9.5

4 .4

9 .2

9 .9

* .2

'9 . 1

8 .0

8 .4

8 .5

8 .8

8*8

8.6

9 .1

8 .3

8.1

7 .0

5 .0

4-84

7.9

8 .3

8 .5

8 .6

8 .6

8.4

8. 8

7 .9

7 .0

6 .0

2 ,4 0 (.2
2 ,5 3 0 .9

1
C
D
V
»

8 .3

3-84

7 .9

8.2

8 .2

8 .5

8 .5

8.3

8 .4

2-85

7 .8

8 .1

8 .2

8 .4

8 .4

8^

6.4

3-85

7 .9

8 .1

8 .2

8 .4

•
0
0

¿-84

O
B
•
«4

i-8 4

"575------

8.2

8.4

4-85

7 .8

8 .0

8 .0

8 .2

8.2

8 .0

6.2

1-86

7 .6

t.8

7 .8

8 .0

7 .9

7.7

7 .9

¿-86

7 .5

7 .7

7 .7

7 .8

7 .7

7 .5

7 .T

3-81

4-81

1—
82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

9 .1

3-83

2 ,4 4 5 .6

7.8

7.1

6 .4

Y .T

7 .1

6 .6

'7 . 3

7.7

7 .3

6 .9

7 .7

8 .2

7 .6

7.2

¿ .8

~ 7 .3

7^3

/• 5

7 .3

6 .8

¿ .5

5 .4

' 5 .T "

5 .5

4 .6

T •3

7.1

¿ .6

6« 3

6. 3

6 .1

5 .4

4 .9

5 .2

1-84

2-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

7 .9

7 .8

IN IT I

4-

2 ,5 7 6 .0
¿ ,6 2 7 .1
2 ,6 0 7 .9

6 .4

2 ,6 9 7 .9
2 ,# 3 2 .0

QUARTER

_______________________________________________________PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 OOLLARS_______________________________________________________
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A tE S 0? CHANGE
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S OF
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L QUARTER
OOLLARS
QUARTER__________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________
ANNUAL RATES
1-86
1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85
1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83
3-81 4-81
1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82
1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84
2 ,0 2 0 .0

4-81

-2 .2

1-82

0 .0

2 .2

2-82

0 .6

2 .1

1.9

3-82

1 .0

2.1

2 .0

2,03172

2 ,U 9 1 .0

2.1

2 ,U #8.1

4-82

2 .9

5.1

3 .7

5 .3

¿ .Ó

2'. 4

5.1

3 .5

4 .2

3 .0

2=83

2 .9

3 .8

4 .1

4 .4

5 .4

5.5

8 .0

3—
83

5 .2

4 .0

4 .3

4 .8

5 .4

5.4

4 .7

4-83

""

1.9

1-83
"

3.4

4 .2

4 .4

4 .9

5 .4

5 .4

4 .3

1-54

3 .5

4 .2

4 .4

5 .2

5.2

5 .7

4 .9

2-84

5 .7

4 .3

4 .6

4 .9

5 .3

5 .3

5 .8

3-84

3 .5

4 .T

4 .2

4 .5

4 .8

4 .7

5 .0

4=84

3 .5

4 .0

4 .2

4 .4

4 .6

4 .5

4. 8

2,IT#4.2
2 ,1 3 5 .1
2 ,1 6 3 .u

5 .3

... ^

2 » 191.9

5.5

¿ ,2 1 3 .0

4 .8

4.1

5 .2

5.2

5.0

6 .0

4 .4

4 .2

3.0

3 .6

1 .3

4 .0

3.6

3 .5

2 .3

3 .J

2 .7

.. ^

2 ,2 * 6 .3
2 ,2 ^ 3 .3

2 ,2 n . I

1-8$

3 .5

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

4 .5

“ 4.4

4 .5 "'

4.1

3.9

3.4

3 .5

3 .5

3 .7

2-85

3 .5

3 .9

4 .1

472“

4 .4

4 .3

4 .5

4 .1

3 .9

3.6

375

3 .5

3 .4

3-85

3 .6

4 .0 “~4:2

4 .3 ” 475

4 .4

4 .4

472

4 .1

3.9

3 .8 " " 3 . 4

3 .9

4 .1

4 .4

4-85

3 .5

3 .9

4 .0

4 .T

4.3

4 .2

4.3"

1-86

3 .5

3 .9

4 .0

4 .1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .2

2-86

3 .4

4 .0

4.1

4.2

4
74

4.3 ■4;4" "471”

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82




—

2 ,0 4 1 .0

3-82

4-82

1-83

2 ,2 v 2 .3
2 « 3 ii.v
5 .3

¿ , 3 4 2 .0

3 . 8 ” 3.5“
3 .9

2-83

3 .5

3 .1

"3 .5 "

375

3.5"

3 .5

1.7

3.8

3.4

3 .5

3 .2

3 .5

3.5

3 .5

¿• 6

3 .6

4 .0

3.5“

3 .8

3 .5 "

3.9

4 .0

375“
4.0“

4 .2 "

3 .8

4.^

6.2

3-84

4-84

3-85

4-85

1-86

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

1-85

2-85

2 ,3 5 1 .r
¿ ,3 f2 .r

2,%WO.%

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
¿£pT£H6Efc i d , "1955-------------------------------

15

■
■

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M ESTIC INVESTMENT IN C URRENT O OLLARS
----------- ¿ o MPó u M éò an * ü a L RATES ÓF CHARSE-----------d

TE R M I N A L
QUAR T E R

BIL LIONS OF

INITIAL QUARTER

“ DÖCLARS

ANNUAL RATES
3^81

4-81

4^81

1^82

2— 82

3^82

^82

P83

2^83

2^83

VHTÌ

F84

M 4

3— 84

4-84

i=B5

2=85

5=3?

i-86
~304.D

-21.8

%i9.5

1-82

-26 * 5 - 3 0 . 9

2-82

-1 6 .6 -1 3 .8

*-82

-1 5 .4 - n . s

4-82

-1 9 .3 -1 8 .7 - 1 4 .2 - 2 3 .3 - 3 2 .7

1-83

- 1 3 .9 -1 2 .2

4 6 7 .8

7 .4

- 6 .8 - I I . 1 - ÌÓ .3

2-83

— .0
6

- 3 .0

3 .8

3-83

—i . 5

I.8

8 .6

4-83

3 .6

7 .3

457.2

-3 .2 - 1 2 .7

6« t
8 .8 “ 1 4 .4 '

14.2

1 5 .4

2 2 .0

428*3

14.6
38.1
37.4

461*3

5975”
47.2

41 .6

5 1 9 .?

35.9

49.8

45.1

"

54.9

8 .7

12.7

19.8

2 1 .7

2 8 .6

46.4

54. Ò

52.2

6 l.O

67 .4

7 .7

11.2

17.3

18.6

2 3 .8

3771“

4Ö.9

34.6

36.8

2 8 .6

—
1.2

¿-84

7 .7

10.9

16. 3

17.3

2 1 .8

32.5

34.8

30.3

29.0

21.3

3 .3

8 .0

' 4=ffT"

¿n

9 .5

14.1

14.8

18.4

27.0

28.2

23.6 ~ 2 T 1 2 ~ 1%*U

0 .3

l.i

- 5 .*

1-85

5 .7

8 .2

12*3

12 .7

15.7

22.8

23.2

18.8

16.2

9W"

2-85

6 .0

8 .3

li.2

1 2 .6

15.2

21.5

21.8

17.7

15.3

V.B

1.5

-0*0

1*8

U.U

-1*9

-ovr

— .1
0

5 .2

7. 3

10.8

1 1 .Ö

13.3

18.8

18.7

14.4

12.5

657 .5
670.3

— .3
1
u.v

7 .4

— .2
0

661.1
650*6

— o*£

66? *1

IU*9

2 .1

03 i

' — 5*

4-85

5.4

7 .4

10.6

10.8

12. 8

17.8

17.6

14.1

11.9

7.5

Ö.9

1.2

3 .9

U. 7

1-84

6 .4

è.3

11.4

ll.7

ir . r ~

18.4

18. 3

15. 1

13.2

9 .3

3#6

4 .3

3*7 '

5 "./“

8 .9 ”'

B * J " 16. 1

IO . 7

/•U ■ T".9

¿•¿.

1*4

¿•0

4 .5

3*U

6* 1

2-83

3-83

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2—
65

3-85

5 .4

7 .1

9 .9

ld .i

3-81

2—
86

11.8 " r r .9 ~ '1 5 . 7 ' 12.6

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

4-83

579.8
659.5

1-84
2-84

3=dT"

---

4UV.6

1-84

66^.5

#*o

708.3

25*3” "

68T?3

3 *4 "—11*3
4-85

1-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER

CROSS PRIVATE OOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 OOLLARS

töWoöKöIb XkMTkC AATE5 OF CHANCE

TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF

DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5=4*" 4=«"

ANNUAL RATES
1-64

4-81

- 2 T .2

517*9

1-82

-31*5 -3 5 .5

464*2
447*5

2-82

-21*5 -1 8 .5

2*9

3-82

-20*0 - Ì 7 . 4

—
4*6

4-82

-22*3 -21.1 -1 5 .6 -23*5 -31*0

1-83

-1 6 .6 -1 4 .3

-15*2

4411*6
408*8
19*1

3 .9

4*1

11*5

41*4

68*9

-3 .3

0 .8

8 .5

9*7

17*0

39*5

51*0

35*0

4-83

1.3

5*6

13.3

15*1

¿2 *3

41*2

■
45.T-

40*5

1-84

6 .0

10*6

18*3

20*6

28*0

44*8

52.Ó

46.8

2-84

5 .5

9 .5

16*1

17*9

23*6

36*2

39.9 3 3

32*4 24*7"

3-84

5 .5

9 .2

15*0

33.5

27.4

25*4

W *3~

4-84

4.4

7 .9

l3 * 0

1-85

3*8

6*6

11*2 ~ i 2 * ó

15*1

1
N

427*1

-9*4

- 4 .0

4*3

7*0

11*2

11*9

3-85

3*5

6*0

9*8

4-85

3 .7

6*0

9*5

1-86

4*5

6*8

2-86

3*6

3*7

3-81

4-81

2-83

-7 *7 '

3-83

- 8 .0 -11*4

486*9
524*8

44*3
53*1

577*2
649*3

60*1

449*7

0*2

658*9

«
0

21*2

31.4

“
14*1 ' 17*4

7 J.T

27.1

21*2

T B .T -

12*4

0*1

0*1

—
5*4

2i.9

2 2.2"

14*7

13*9

8*4

-1*7

-2 *4

—
4*2

-7 *0

14*8

20*é

21*0

14*0

13*4

a*9

0*8

o*9

- o .r

1*0

11.*

10*3

IÌ.8

ìà .ó

17.8

13*2

10*é

4*4

—
0*6

—
0*7

—
2*3

—
1*2

1*8

-7 *0

10*0

li.3

16*9

16*7

12*5

1Ö.2

4*4

0*3

0*4

-O* i

0*5

3*1

-0*7

6*0

10*2

10*7

12*8

17*2

17*0

13*2

11*2

2*4"

3*0

2*5"

4*2

7*2

5*8

12*9

8*8

9 *2

ii* r

14*9

14*6

10*9

9*0

3 *8

l* ü

1*1

u*9

1*5

3*1

1*4

<*^

3 82 4-82
—

1-83

2-83

3-83 4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4—
84

1-85

2-85

3-85

16*5

1-82 2-82




3*0

5*8

649.9
e>«*^

033*0
6 7 i* v

033*2
o84*0

20*2
j

* o -I U .B

4-85

o64* 1

1-86

INITIAL QUARTER

PREPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS

16

“"

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS ANO S E R V IC ES IN CURRENT OOLLARS
COHPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ B IL L IO N S UF
TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ OOLLARS
~ANKUAL R A It S ----QUARTER
1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82
3-81
4-81
1-83 2-83 3-83 4*83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86

5 .9

622.1
625.7

7 .7

4 .1

3-82

9*3

7 .4

8 .2

14.4

10*7

9 .5

10.8

15.3

16.2

1-83

8*4

7 .1

7 .4

9 .1

6 .6

- 2 .2

2-83

7*8

6 .6

6 .8

7 .9

5 .8

1 .0

4 .3

3-83

7*2

6 .1

6 .2

7 .0

5 .2

1 .8

3 .8

6* 1

5 .0

4 .9

5 .3

3 .6

0 .6

1 .6

1-84

6*5

5 .6

5 .6

6 .0

4 .7

2 .5

3 .8

3 .6

3 .7

2-84

C
D
•
**

2 .3

2-82

+
>
1
C
D
N

10*5

6 13 .3

15*3

1-82

1
0
»
w

4-81

7 .4

7 .6

8 .3

7 .4

6 .0

7 .7

8 .6

10.4

17.6

25.2

3-84

7*9

7 .3

7.4

8 .0

7 .2

6 .0

7 .4

9 .3

13.6

15.1

5 .9

4-84

8*1

7 .6

7 .7

8 .3

7 .6

6 .6

7 .9

8 .5

9 .6

12*9

13.7

8 .4

647.1
671.8
668.1
675.2
680.7

3 .3

676.1

- 2 .7

693.2

10.5

7 33.3
743.8
763*4

11.0

8*1

7 .6

7 .7

8 .2

7 .6

' 6 .7

7 .9

8 .4

9 .3

11.8

12.1

8.1

9 .2

7 .5

M
1
0
»
s*

7 77.3

1-85

8*3

7 .9

8 .0

8*5

8 .0

7 .2

8*3

8 .8

9 .6

11.8

12.0

9 .0

10.0

9 .5

11.6

3-85

8*8

8 .4

8 .6

9 .1

8 .6

8 .0

9 .1

9 .6

10.4

12.4

12.7

10.4

11.5

1 1 .7

13 .9

1 6 .3

4-85

9*1

£• 7

8 .9

9 .4

9 .0

8 .4

9 .4

9 .9

10.7

12.5

12.8

10*8

11.9

12.1

13.7

14.7

13.1

1-86

8*0

7 .6

7 .7

8 .1

7 .6

7 .0

7 .8

8 .1

8 .6

9 .9

9 .9

7 .8

8 .2

7 .6

7 .6

6*3

1 .7

- 8 .5

8*2

7 .8

7 .9

8 .3

7 .9

7 .3

8 .1

8 .4

8 .9

10.1

10.1~

8*3

8 .7

8 .3

8 .5

7 .7

5 .0

1 .2

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2—
85

3-85

4-85

2-86

7 9 9 .0
829.7
8 55.6
836.7
1 2 .0
l- W

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS ANO S ER V IC ES IN 1982 OOLLARS
_________
COHPOUNPSO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE____________________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S "U F
OOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

AMMML

3-81
4-81

860.8

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
63 5 .9

3 .7

634 .6

1-82

1*4

-0*8

2-82

— I
0*

-1*9

-3*1

3-82

2*0

1*4

2*5

8*4

4-82

3*8

3*8

5*4

9*9

11*4

629.7
642.5
660.1
649.2

1-83

2*0

1*7

2*3

4*2

2*1

—
6*4

2-83

1*9

1*6

2*0

3*4

1*7

-2*8

1*1

3-83

1*8

1*6

2*0

3 .0

1*7

-1*3

1*4

1 .7

4-83

0*8

0*5

0*7

1*3

0*0

-2*7

-1*4

-2*7

— 6*8

1-84

1*3

1*0

1*2

1*8

0*8

-1*2

0*2

-0*1

-1*0

650*9
653*6
642*2
650*2

5*1

2-84

2*7

2*6

3*0

3*8

3*1

1*8

3*6

4*2

5*0

11*5

18*4

3-84

2*6

2*5

2*9

3*5

3*0

1*8

3*2

3 .7

4*2

8*1

9*7

1*7

4-84

2*9

2*8

3*2

3*8

3*3

2*4

3*7

4 .1

4*6

7*7

8*6

4*0

6 .3

3*1

3*7

6*6

6*9

3*4

4*2

1-85

2*8

KAI

2*8

3*2

2*3

3*5

3 .8

4*2

678*2
681*0
691*5
695*3

2*2

2-85

3*2

3*1

3*4

4*0

3*6

2*9

3*9

4 .3

4*7

6*7

T .l

4*4

5 .4

4 .9

7*7

3-85

3*8

3*8

4*2

4*7

4*4

3*8

4*9

5*3

5*8

7*7

8*2

6*3

7*5

7*8

10*8

1 3 .9

4-85

4*2

4*2

4*5

5*1

4*8

4*3

5*4

5*8

6*3

8*0

8*5

6*9

8*0

8 .4

10 .5

11*9

1 0 .0

1-86

3*2

3 .1

3*4

3*8

3*5

2*9

3*8

4*0

4*2

5*6

5*6

3 .9

4*3

3*9

4*3

3*2

-1.8

-1 2 .3

2-86

3*5

3*5

3*8

4*2

3*9

3*4

4*2

4 .5

4*7

6*0

6*1

4*6

5*0

4*8

5*4

4*8

1 .9

- 1 .9

9 *7

3-81

4-81

1—
82

Z—
82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

Z—
84

3—
84

4-84

1-8»

2-85

J- 8 5

4-85

1^86




708*3
731*8
749*4
725*2
742*2
......... —

PREPARED B F FEUfcRAL RES E R V E BANK, UF S T* LO U IS
SEPTEMBER 11« 1986

17

“

D ISPO SABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUMPEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_________

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

3-84

2-84

1-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
2*187.0

4-81

4*7

1-82

4*2

3 .7

2-82

5*0

5 .1

6 .4

3—
82

5*4

5 .6

6 .6

6 .7

4-82

5*7

6 .0

6 .8

6 .9

7 .1

1-83

5*6

5 .8

6 .3

6 .2

6 .0

4 .8

6 .9

6 .9

6 .8

8 .7

2*207.2
2*241.8
2 *278.6
2*318.1
2*345.7
2*395.4

2-83

6*0

6 .3

6 .8

3-83

6*3

6 .5

7 .0

7 .1

7 .2

7 .3

8 .5

8 .2

4-83

7 .2

7 .5

8 .1

8 .3

8 .7

9.1

10.5

11.4

14.6

1-84

7 .9

8 .2

8 .8

9 .1

9 .6

10.0

11.4

12.3

14.4

14.1
5 .2

2*443.2
2 *527.9
2*612.7
2*646.3

2-84

7 .6

7 .9

8 .4

8 .6

8 .9

9 .2

10*1

1 0 .5

11.2

9 .6

3-84

7 .6

7 .9

8 .3

8 .5

8 .7

9 .0

9 .7

9 .8

10*3

8 .8

6 .3

7 .4

4-84

7 .4

7 .7

8 .0

8 .2

8 .4

8 .5

9 .0

9 .1

9 .3

8 .0

6 .0

6 .4

5 .4

7 .1

5 .5

5 .5

4 .6

3 .8

7 .4

8 .4

13*2

2*693.8
2 *729.6
2*755.4

1-85

7 .2

7 .4

7 .7

7 .8

7 .9

8 .0

8 .4

8 .3

8 .3

2-85

7*6

7*8

8 .1

8 .2

8 .4

8 .5

8 .9

8 .9

9 .0

8 .1

7 .0

7 .4

3-85

7 .0

7*1

7 .4

7 .5

7 .5

7 .6

7 .8

7 .7

7 .7

6 .7

5 .5

5 .6

5 .1

5 .0

5 .6

- 1 .4

7*5

7 .5

7 .8

7 .7

7 .6

6 .8

5 .8

5 .9

5 .6

5 .6

6 .2

2 .8

7 .3

5 .9

6 .0

6 .5

4 .4

7 .4

7 .5

7 .0

6 .8

6 .0

4—03

4—
00

4-85

7*0

7 .1

7 .4

7*4

2 *842.3

1-86

7 .0

7 .2

7 .4

7 .5

7 .5

7 .5

7 .8

7 .7

7.6

6 .9

6 .0

6 .1

2-86

7 .0

7 .1

7 .3

7 .4

7 .4

7 .4

7 .6

7 .5

7.5

6 .8

6 .0

6 .1

5 .9

6 .0

6 .4

4 .8

4-Bl

i- d z

2-ffZ

3-82

4-*7~ 1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-83

2*832.0

2-03

2*882.2
2*935*1
2*978.5

----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1R1I1AL UUARIfcR

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 OOLLARS
____ COMPOUMOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL
QUARTER

U I L L TUNS IfF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-81

4-81
1-82

- 1 .5

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

- 1 .6

2*253.T
2*245.7

- 1 .4

2-82

— .1
0

0 .6

2 .7

3-82

0 .0

0 .6

1 .6

0 .4

2*2 60 .9

4-82

0 .5

1 .0

1 .8

1 .3

2*263.4
2*276.1

2 .3

1-83

0 .7

1 .2

1 .9

1 .6

2 .2

2 .2

2-83

1 .2

1 .7

2 .3

2 .2

2 .8

3.1

4 .0

3-83

1 .6

2 .1

2 .6

2 .6

3 .2

3.5

4 .1

4-83

2 .5

3 .0

3 .7

3 .8

*•5

5 .1

6.1

7 .2

10.2

1-84

3 .2

3 .7

4 .4

4 .6

5 .3

6 .0

6 .9

7 .9

9 .8

9 .4

2-84

3 .1

3 .6

4 .1

4 .3

4 .9

5 .3

6 .0

6 .5

7.2

5 .7

2 .2

2 *288.4
2*311.1
2*3 35 .4

4 .3

2*392.7
2 *446.9
2*460.3

3-84

3*1

3 .6

4 .1

4 .2

4«7

5 .1

5 .6

5 .9

6 .3

5 .0

2 .9

3 .6

4-84

3 .0

3 .4

3 .9

4 .0

4 .4

4 .7

5 .0

5 .2

5 .4

4 .2

2 .5

2 .7

1 .8

2*493.1

1-85

2 .8

3 .2

3 .6

3 .7

4 .0

4 .2

4 .4

4 .5

4.5

3 .4

2 .0

1 .9

1.1

0 .4

2 *4 95 .7

2-85

3*2

3 .6

4 .0

4 .1

4 .4

4 .7

4 .9

5 .1

5.2

4 .4

3 .4

3 .7

3 .7

4 .7

9 .1

3-85

2 .8

3 .1

3 .4

3 .5

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

3 .1

2 .1

2 .1

1*7

1 .7

2 .3

- 4 .0

4-85

2*8

3 .0

3 .3

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

3 .9

3 .9

3 .8

3 .0

2 .2

2 .2

1 .9

1 .9

2 .4

- 0 .8

2 .6

1-86

3 .0

3 .2

3 .5

3 .6

3 .8

3 .9

4.1

4 .1

4 .1

3 .4

2 .7

2 .8

2 .6

2 .8

3 .4

1 .6

4 .5

6 .5

2-86

3 .2

3 .5

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .2

4 .3

4 .3

4.4

3 .8

3 .2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

4 .1

2 .9

5 .4

6 .8

3-81

4-81

1-8Z

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

3-84

4-84

1-85-

2=85”




inniM.

1-84

2 *4 81 .9

2 *5 50 .8
2*5 24 .7
2*540.7
2*581.2
7 .1

2*625.7

3-85 “ 4-85- 1-86

U U A K IU

PRfcPARfcO Hr FfcUfeKAL KfcSfcEVfc HANR Uf- S I . LO UIS
SEPTEMBER 18, 1986

18

”

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES*
CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL R A ÌÉ Ì Ó* tHAHÎÈ
TERMINAL
W A &Tfeft
»-81

B IL L IO N S OF
--- E H X S K 5 ---ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER

3-8 i

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

»-83

1-8»

2^8»

»— 8»

1-85

*=85

3-8 5

»-85

l-*6

T ÏÏX

-9*1
- » » * 6 -6 6 .2

1ÖT.5“

-32.9 - » 2 .»

1-82

107*0
"10773

-25*7 -30*5

- 0 .»

»-82

-2 2 .9 -26*0

- 3 .9

1-83

-1 6 .3 -1 7 .7

2 .9

» .5

6*2

26*»

- 6 .9

1 » .0

Ì8 .Ì

24.7

»7*3

3-82

2-83

- 7 .2

1*1

104*3

- 5 .0 - 1 0 .7

110*6
71. Ì

rz s * 6
l» l* o

3-03

- 1 .2

0 .0

19.8

2 » .7

3 1 .»

» 9 .5

62.5

53.9

»-83

- 0 .3

0 .8

17.9

21*6

26*1

37.5

» 1 .»

28 .3

7*0

1-8»

0*6

1 .7

16.7

19.6

23*0

31.2

32 .»

2 1 .»

7.8

2-8»

0.1

1.1

1»«2

16.3

18.7

2 »*»

2». 1

1 » .»

3 .6

3-8»

- 2 .0

- 1 .»

9 .8

11.2

12.5

16.3

i» .t

4 .8

- 3 .7

»-8»

- 2 .3

- l.t

8 .»

9 .5

10.4

ti* 4

11.6

1-85

- 3 .8

-3 *»

5 .»

6.1

6 .6

8*8

6 .7

2-85

- 3 .»

- 3 .0

5.2

5 .8

6 .2

8.1

6*2

3-85

- 2 .0

- 1 .5

6 .»

7 .0

7.5

9 .»

7*8

»-85

- 0 .8

- 0 .3

7.2

7 .9

8 .»

10.2

8.8

1-86

- 1 .5

- 1 .0

5.9

6 .*

'6.8

8 .3

6 .9

2-86

- 0 .9

- 0 .5

6*1

6 .6

6 .4

8.3

7 .0

3~8l

»-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

»-82

1-83

l» 3 * »
8.6

146*»

2.0

144*8

— .3
»

133*0

1».Ö -22 6
- 7 .0 —

4.9
3*4 -5*9 —¿ . 5 -11.Ö -l» 2 —
9 -1^*9 - ¿¿.I
-Ö .3 -772" ^9*5"-13.9 -16
Z *2
8
- 5 .9 - 7 .4 -10.9 - 2 5 — .8 - IÖ .7
1
0 .0
l2 .l
6
2 .»
-2*7 -4.Ö - 6 .0 - 3 —1.8 - è .7
.1
2 2 ~^7T 14.4
3 .9
—
0*5 - 1 .4 -y.ö - 5
7.3
0 .7
2 .»
- 1 .7 - 2 .6 - 3 .9 -3 è - 0 .3
7 .5
0*9 1 .9
¿.9
- 0 .8 -1*5 — . 6
¿
-2 »
2-83

3-83

»-83

1-8»

2-1B»

3-8»

»-84

1-85

TJÇÏ1
1Z6*0
126* r
22*9

2 .1
1
9*0
0*9
2-85

133*4

19*7
2 —
.T 11*5
4* Ö -2*0
3-85

4-85

139*4
135*2 '
H'mb "

Ii9*U

1-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER
♦ NATIONAL INCOME B A SIS
PREPAREO BV FEOERAL RESCRVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS
5 e # T E N B E j r t a ~ t m ----------------------------------------

HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly
presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for
1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of
Current Business. Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82
and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate
volumes.
These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy
printout. For further information and prices, write to the National
Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

IN V EN TORIE S COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE
68

6 8

6 4

6 4

6 0

6 0

5 6

5 6

5 2

5 2

1 . 4 8

4 8

4 4

44

1 . 4 0

4 0

3 6

3 6

3 2

3 2

2 8

2 8

2 4

2 4
1 9 7 2

1 9 7 3

1 9 7 4

1 9 7 5

1 9 7 6

1 9 7 7

1 9 7 8

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 0

* RAT I OS BASED O SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA.
N
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.

1 9 8 1

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 6

SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

LATEST DATA PLOTTEDs JULY PRELIMINARY



PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

20


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102