Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1986
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National E c o n o m i c Trends S eptember 1986 T h e e c o n o m i c theory o f rational expectations emp h a s i z e s A c c o r d i n g t o this t h e o r y , i n d i v i d u a l s alter d e c i s i o n s w h e n policy, rather tax r e f o r m than plans. later w h e n A the n e w rise in e x p e c t e d apparently has r e d u c e d expected policy future actions taxes o n rates o f r e turn a n d , that individuals n e w are base decisions o n all a v a i l a b l e information. i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n g e s their e x p e c t a t i o n s a b o u t future e c o n o m i c taken. i n c o m e O v e r f r o m the past investment as a c o n s e q u e n c e , year, expectations in n e w reduced such plant a n d h a v e b e e n equipment, affected b y for e x a m p l e , i n v e s t m e n t a s a s h a r e o f t h e n a t i o n ’s i ncome. Real business fixed investment first h a l f o f 1 9 8 6 , w h e n in c o m p a r e d m i d - 1985. 3.8 percent S o m e d o w n with T h e of analysts uncertainty about that, e x t e n t to w h i c h It a l s o distorts policy d e p e n d s of tax bills G N P argue a n d the in the a u p w a r d trend of such first h a l f o f that the tax o n c e r e f o r m r e f o r m notion can b e to b e b y a variety unlikely has nearly correct, b e e n f r o m a d d e d confirms c h a n g e in about this complete, although of recent that p a s s a g e k n o w n a n d investment for the a n d w r o n g prospective V ie w s equaled o n assessing in v i e w the uncertainty course developments. T h e expectations for year m i g h t rates tax of G N P increases in m i d - 198 3 are largest, rather of return sharply. an to i g n o r e This a n d t o its p e a k declined temporarily analysis uncertainty lessening that d e p e n d s Uncertainty rational investment expectations fixed investment, s o m e the about to a n e n d . the uncertainty a r g u m e n t over the o n the the howe v e r . future tax passage uncertainty. future taxes c o m e I n this e v e n t , to reduced emph asizes rational expectations, environment. to h i g h e r e x p e c t e d of fixed quite than in the substantial earlier. o f return, appears future tax rates rise p e r c e n t o f real G N P n o t o n t h e d e t a i l s o r e f f e c t s o f a p a r t i c u l a r t a x act. T h e adjustments T h e a 12.5 T h i s d e c l i n e is e v e n m o r e percent future to e x p e c t e d expected This 10.7 percent investment o f the tax act will further retard b u s i n e s s incorporated 4.3 s h o u l d b e g i n to accelerate. reasons. f r o m expected uncertainty effective, of uncertainty j u d g m e n t s w h e r e about o n the probability of tax c h a n g e s generally, m e r e l y equipment) investment anticipated. B u s i n e s s i n v e s t m e n t t e n d s to r e a c c e l e r a t e w h e n c e s s is n o w such spending, debate bill b e c o m e s c h a n g e of 1 9 8 6 effe c t o f this p a r t i c u l a r t a x relevant durable 1 3 p e r c e n t d u r i n g t h e last t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f 1 9 8 5 . c o m p o n e n t this p r o s p e c t i v e the ( p r o d u c e r s ’s t r u c t u r e s a n d about the previous structures real investment f r o m next perspective year or suggests, since the general so If t hat p r o w o u l d will b e h o w e v e r , appear affected t h a t it is pattern of tax c h a n g e s time. — T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E R A N K of S T . I X H T S e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m . J o h n A . T a t o m -______ TOTAL C I V I L I AM EMPLOYMENT# COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MiìNTH 1-85 2—85 3-85 2-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 4-86 3-86 2-86 1-86 5-86 7-86 106,587 3*1 106,951 3-85 3.6 4 .2 4-85 2.1 1 .6 - 0 .9 5-85 1.8 1 .3 -0.1 0 .8 6-85 0 .6 0 .0 - 1 .3 -1 .5 - 3 .7 7-85 1.0 0 .6 - 0 .2 0 .0 -0 .4 3.1 8-85 1.4 1.2 0 .6 1.0 1 .0 3.5 i o ¿ , é ?2 106,939 106,601 106,8^1 3 .9 107,210 107,519 9-85 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 1 .6 3.5 3 .7 3.5 10-85 1.9 1.7 1 .4 1.8 2 .0 3.4 3 .6 3 .4 3 .3 11-85 1.9 1 .7 1.4 1 .8 1 .9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2 .5 1 .8 12-85 1.9 1.8 1 .6 1 .9 2 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2 .8 2 .6 2*2 2 .7 1-86 2.5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .6 2 .8 3.8 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4*3 5 .6 8 .6 2-86 1.9 1 .9 1.6 1.9 2 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .3 2 .1 2 .2 2 .0 107,813 107,969 108,206 108,955 - 4 .3 108,561 108,788 3-86 2.0 1.9 1 .7 2 .0 2 .1 2 .7 2 .7 2.5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 - 0 .9 4-86 1.9 1.9 1.7 1 .9 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 2.4 2 .2 2 .0 2.1 1 .9 -0 .2 1.8 1.2 5-86 2.0 1.9 1.7 1 .9 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .1 2.1 2 .0 0 .4 2 .0 1*8 2 .4 4 .4 6 .4 6-86 6-86 2.2 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 2 .4 2 .9 2 .9 2.8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .5 2 .7 1 .6 3 .1 3 .3 108,892 109,110 109,673 109,882 7-86 2.2 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 . 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 2.7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 1.7 2 .9 3 .0 3.7 4 .3 2 .3 8—86 2.3 2 .2 2 .1 2 .3 2 .4 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 1 .9 3 .0 3 .0 - 3 .5 3 .9 2 .7 3 .0 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7*85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 3-86 110,155 IN IT IA L MONTH •SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTOM OF CHART OPPOSITE PAGE COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL M ON T H 1-85 2-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 96,507 1 .8 96,870 3-85 3 .2 4 .6 4-85 3.1 3 .8 2 .9 5-85 3.1 3.5 2 .9 2 .9 97,104 97,338 97,442 6-85 2.7 2 .9 2 .4 2.1 1.3 7-85 2.7 2 .9 2 .5 2 .4 2.1 2 .9 8-85 2.7 2 .9 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .8 2 .7 4t»672 97,890 98,120 9-85 2.8 2 .9 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 10-85 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 3.1 3 .1 3 .3 3 .7 11-85 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 3 .0 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 2 .9 12-85 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 3.0 3 .1 3.2 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 1-86 3 .0 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 3 .3 3 .4 3.5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .9 4 .8 2-86 2 .9 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 3.1 3.1 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .1 3 .2 98,428 9 8,666 98,910 99,296 99,429 1.6 99,484 3-86 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1 .1 0 .7 4-86 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .0 2 .2 3 .7 5-86 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 1 .9 2 .0 2 .6 1.6 6-86 2 .5 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2.5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1.3 1 .3 1.5 0 .4 - 0 .9 7-86 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2.5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1.7 Im i 1 .9 1 .4 1.2 à .4 8-86 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2 .2 1 .8 1.8 2 .0 1 .6 i« 6 2 .9 2 .4 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1—86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 99,783 99,918 99,843 100,122P 100,324P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS SEPTEMBER 5* 19S6 2 EMPLOYMENT RA T I O SCALE MI L L I O N S OF PERSONS R A T I O SCALE MI L L I ON S OF PERSONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEG INNI NO JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEV PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION ANO EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SE AS O N A L L Y ADJUSTED PERCENT PERCENT 12.0 1 KO 10.0 9.0 8.0 7 .0 6.0 5 .0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 3 L O U IS 4. 0 CONSUMER PR IC E INOEX FOR A l l URBAN CONSUMERS* SEASONALLY AOJUSTED iNNIIAI RATES OF fHANGF------------------- - TERMINAL IN IT IA I -2-J35 - »9&7-100 MONTH 4 - 8 5-- 2-&5-- 3=A5— 4=85— 5-8S— 6s&S— Z=&5— 8=&5— 9-8S in-«< 1 1 -«« — 3=86— à=A6— 5=8£— 6-BA— I- i à - 3.9________________ _____________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ 317.7 _3=A5_ 5mQ 3 19 ..2 _*-85 -fr«-6____¿ * û ____£ t ¿ _ 320.3 - 4-.Z- .3^4___ 2.*X.. t t l*3 . 3 * 3 ____ i ^ a ____ i * 3 ____ ¿m-B.- -- ----- —U S -__2JJ1____k ill323.1 2.5 3.4 3.Û 2 .6 2 .6 2 .4 9-85 3 .3 3 .3 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .6 10-85 3.5 3 .4 3.1 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 3.1 3 .4 4 .5 11-ftS 3 .8 3 .8 3 .5 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 4 .1 4 .5 5 .7 6 .9 12-85 3.9 3 .9 3.7 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 4 .1 4 .5 5 .3 5 .7 4 .5 1-B6 * „9 3 .9 3 .7 3 .6 3 .8 3 .9 4.1 4 .4 5 .0 5.1 4*3 4 .1 3 .2 3.1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 3 .0 2 .6 1 .2 - 0 .4 - 4 .6 ?.S 2.2 2 .0 2 .0 1.9 1 .8 1.7 1 .6 1.0 - 0 .4 - 1 .9 - 4 .8 -5*0 323.7 2 .3 324.9 326.7 327.9 329.0 327.7 326.3 325.4 4-86 2 .2 ' 2 .1 1 .8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1«2 1.1 0 .9 0 .3 —1 .0 - 2 .3 —4 .3 - 4 .1 - 3 .3 5-86 2 .2 2 .1 1.8 1.6 1 .6 1.4 1*3 1.2 1.1 0 .6 - 0 .4 - 1 .4 - 2 .7 - 2 .1 - 0 .6 6-86 2 .4 2 .3 2.1 1 .9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1 .6 1 .6 1.2 0 .4 -0 .2 - I.I - 0 .2 1.5 3 .9 5 .7 7-86 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 1.8 1 .8 1.7 1 .6 1.5 1.4 1.1 0 .4 - 0 .2 - o .a - 0 .1 1.2 2 .7 3 .0 0 .4 8-86 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 1 .8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1 .6 1 .5 1 .2 0 .6 0.1 - 0 .4 0 .3 1.4 2 .6 2 .7 1*3 2*2 1—05 2—85 3—85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85^10-85 11-85 1 2 -8Í 1 -Í6 2-86 3=55 ¥=15 5-86 6-§6 Ï- B 6 326.0 2*2 327.5 327.6 328*2 -----------------------------------------------m rm nnroinn---------------------------------------------PREPARED BY FE0 EK A T RESERVE BAUR o F “ 5T . LO U IS SEPTEMBER 23* 1986 PROOUCER PR IC E INOEX* FIN ISH EO GOOOS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTED* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 0 .0 3-85 0 .2 0 .4 4-85 2 .2 3 .3 6 .3 5-85 2 .4 3 .2 4 .6 2 .9 6-85 1.4 1.8 2 .2 0 .2 7-85 1.7 2 .0 2 .4 1.1 0 .2 2 .9 8-85 0 .9 1.0 1.2 - 0 .1 - 1 .1 - 0 .4 - 3 .6 9-85 -0 .1 - 0 .1 - O .i - 1 .4 -2 .4 - 2 .4 - 5 .0 - 6 .4 2-86 3-86 4-86 5—86 6-86 7-86 292.0 293.5 294.2 293.6 - 2 .4 294.3 293.4 291.8 294.4 10-85 1.1 1 .3 1.4 0 .6 0 .2 0 .8 0 .1 2 .1 11.2 11-85 1 .9 2 .1 2 .3 1.7 1.5 2 .3 2 .2 4 .2 9 .8 8 .5 3 .2 3.3 5 .1 9 .2 8 .2 2 .4 1-86 291.9 2-85 12-85 1967 « 100 IN IT IA L MONTH 1-85 2 .6 2 .9 2 .5 2 .4 296.4 298.3 8 .0 1-86 1.4 1 .6 1.7 1 .2 1.0 1.5 1.2 2 .2 4 .5 2 .3 - 8 .5 296.1 2-86 -0*2 - 0 .2 - 0 .3 - 0 .9 - 1 .3 - 1 .2 - 1 .7 - 1 .4 - 0 .4 - 3 .1 - 6 .7 -1 3 .3 - 1 7 .8 291.3 - 1 .1 - 1 .2 - 1 .9 - 2 .3 - 2 .3 —2*9 - 2 .8 - 2 .2 - 4 .7 - 7 .8 - 1 2 .5 -1 4 .4 - 1 0 .9 288.5 3-86 - 1 .0 - 0 .6 287.0 4-86 - 1 .3 - 1 .4 - 1 .6 - 2 .2 - 2 .7 - 2 .7 - 3 .3 - 3 .3 - 2 .8 - 5 .0 - 7 .4 -1 0 .9 -1 1 .7 - 8 .5 - 6 .1 5-86 - 0 .« - 0 .9 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 1 .9 - 1 .9 - 2 .3 - 2 .2 - 1 .6 - 3 .4 - 5 .2 - 7 .6 - 7 .4 - 3 .7 0 .2 6 .9 6—86 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 1 .8 - 1 .7 - 2 .1 - 2 .0 - 1 .5 - 3 .0 - 4 .5 - 6 .5 -6*0 -2 *9 0*0 3 .2 -0 *4 7-86 - 1 .1 - 1 .1 - 1 .2 - 1 .7 - 2 .0 - 2 .0 - 2 .4 - 2 .3 - 1 .8 - 3 .2 - 4 .6 - 6 .2 - 5 .9 - 3 .3 - 1 .2 0 .4 - 2 .7 - 4 .9 8-86 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 - 1 .4 - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 1 .9 - 1 .8 - 1 .3 - 2 .5 - 3 .7 - 5 .0 - 4 .5 - 2 .1 - 0 .2 1*3 - 0 .6 - 0 .6 3 .8 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 288.6 288.5 287.3 280.2 IN IT IA L MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R EV ISEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE SANK OF S T . L Ú Ü IÍ SEPTEMBER 12* 1966 4 R A T IO SC A LE PRICES RATI O S C A LE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BE«INN IN « JANUARY 197« 18 FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (C P I - U ). CPI-U OATA BE«INNIN« 1083 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTA«ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN«E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AU«UST PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RATIO SCALE 1967-100 PRODUCER PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO SCALE 1967-100 PERCENTA«ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN«E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» AU6UST PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 PROOUCER PR IC E INOEX» FIN ISM EO CONSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* TERMINAL MONTH 1967 » 100 ____W I T I AL MONTH L-05_ r.S5_ 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-65 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 273*6 2-85 - 0 .4 3-85 -2 .8 - 5 .1 4-85 - 4 .2 - 6 .0 - 6 .8 5-85 -5*5 - 7 .1 -8.1 - 9 .3 272*4 270*8 266*6 266*4 6-85 -4*6 -5 .6 - 5 .7 - 5 .2 - 0 .9 7-85 - 2 .0 - 2 .4 -1 .6 0 .1 5 .2 11.8 8-85 —2 .9 - 3 .3 - 3 .0 - 2 .0 0 .6 1.3 270*9 269*0 -8 .1 266*4 9-85 - 4 .0 - 4 .5 -4 .4 - 3 .9 - 2 .4 - 2 .9 10-85 - 1 .4 - 1 .5 -1 .0 0 .0 2 .0 2 .7 -0 .1 4 .1 21.7 11-85 0*0 0 .0 0 .7 1.8 3 .8 4 .8 3.1 7 .2 17.6 13.6 12-85 1*1 1.3_ 2 .0 3 .2 5.1 6 .1 5.0 8 .6 16.0 13*3 - 9 .6 -1 1 .0 270*6 273*7 276*5 13.0 1-86 0 .4 0 .5 1.1 2 .0 3.5 4 .2 3 .0 5 .3 9 .9 6 .2 - 6 .7 274*9 2-86 -1*1 - 1 .2 - 0 .8 - 0 i2 0 .8 1.1 - 0 .4 1.0 3 .5 - 0 .6 - 4 .9 -1 2 .7 -1 8 .3 270*3 3-86 - 0 .9 - 1 .0 - 0 .6 0 .0 0 .9 1.1 - 0 .1 1.1 3.3 -0 .1 - 3 .3 -8 .1 - 8 .8 4-86 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 -0 .4 0 .1 1.0 1.2 0.1 1.2 3 .0 0.2 - 2 .3 - 5 .7 - 5 .4 1*8 1*8 5-86 0 .3 0 .3 0 .7 1.3 2 .3 2 .6 1.7 2 .8 4 .7 2.5 0 .7 - 1 .6 - 0 .2 6*7 9*2 17.2 6-86 0 .3 0 .3 0 .7 1.2 2.1 2 .3 1.5 2 .5 4 .2 2.2 0 .6 - 1 .3 - 0 .2 5*0 6*0 8.2 0*0 2 .7 270*7 1*8 271*1 274*7 274*7 7-86 1.5 1.6 2 .1 2 .7 3.6 3 .9 3 .3 4 .4 6 .1 4 .5 3 .4 2.1 3 .7 8*7 10*5 13*6 11*9 2 5 .2 8-86 2.3 2 .4 2 .9 3.5 4 .4 4 .8 4 .3 5 .4 7.1 5.7 4 .9 3 .9 5*5 10*1 11*8 14*5 13*6 21*1 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 >0 «0 1 m 4-66 5-86 279*9 17.1 283*6 ?-8 ¿ ♦DATA FÜR FOUR MONTHS AGO RfcVlSEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PROOUCER P R IC E INOEX« FIN IS H E D GOOOSt EXCLÜOING FOOOS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTED« ______________________CQMPJUtiPfeP ANHliAL- RATCS QF XHAN«_________________________ TERMINAL _1_-A5_ 2^85 2-85 1967 » 100 INI TIAL HQNTH 3-85 4-85_ 5-85 M i . 7-» 8-85 9-85 10-65 11-65 12-65___1-66 2-86 3-86_ 4^86 5 - 8 6 _ 6^86 7-66 -0*4 _4z85_ 6 .9 296*9 11*1 6-85 3 .3 4 .2 4*7 7-85 2 .8 3 .4 3*6 1*6 -3*5 1*2 -1*6 299*7 299*8 0*4 299*3 8-85 2.1 2 .5 2*4 0*4 -1*7 -0*8 -2*0 9-85 1.2 1.4 1*2 -0*7 -2*6 -2 .2 -3*5 -5*1 10-85 2 .0 2 .3 2*2 0*8 -0*4 0*4 0*4 1*6 8*8 11-85 2 .4 2 .8 2*7 1*6 0*7 1*6 1*9 3*2 7*7 6*6 12-85 2 .8 3.1 3*2 2*2 1*5 2*4 2*8 4*1 7*3 6*6 1-86 1.8 2 .0 1*9 0*9 0*1 0*7 0*7 1*3 2*9 1*1 296*0 300*1 301*7 303*3 300*9 -9*1 2-86 0.1 0 .2 -0*1 -1*1 -2*0 -1*8 -2*1 -2*1 -1*5 -3*9 -13*4 -17*5 296*1 3-86 - 1 .0 - 1 .1 -1*4 -2*4 -3*3 -3*3 -3*8 -4*0 -3*9 -6*2 -13*9 -16*1 -1 4 .7 292*2 4-86 -1 .8 -1*9 -2*3 -3*3 -4*2 -4*3 -4 .8 -5*1 -5*1 -7*3 -13*5 -14*9 -13*6 -12*4 289*0 5-86 -1*2 -1*3 -1*6 -2*5 -3 .3 -3*2 -3*6 -3*8 -3*6 -5*3 -9*6 -9*7 -7*0 -2*8 7*7 6-86 -1 .2 -1*2 -1*5 -2*4 -3*0 -3*0 -3*3 -3*4 -3*3 -4*7 -8*1 -7*9 -5*4 -2*0 3*6 7-86 -1 .9 -2*0 -2*3 -3*1 -3*8 -3*9 -4*2 -4*4 -4*3 -5*7 -8*9 -8*9 -7*1 -5*0 8-86 -1 .9 -1*9 -2*2 -3*0 -3*6 -3*6 -3*9 -4*1 -4*0 -5*2 -8*0 -7*8 -6*1 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-65 9-85 10-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 -♦.PATA FQR FOUR MONTHS AM 290*6 -0*4 290*7 -2*5 -7*2 -13*5 267*2 -4*2 -2*1 -5*1 -7*4 -0*8 3-66 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 287*0 IN IT IA L NONTH REVISED Î0 REFLECT LATE R E P O R T I N G ___________ PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS SEPTEMBER 12« 1966 6 INDUSTRIAL RA T I O SCALE 1977-100 1978 PRODUCT I ON* R A T I O SCALE 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST PRELIMINARY «REVISED FROM 1984 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 1 N 0 U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N co*4>ouhoëô ÁNMiAL *A T É¿ ÖF tU A k te 1977 * 100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH i —85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 5*0 3-85 3 .5 2 .0 4-85 2 .0 0 .5 5-Ä5 2 .2 l.i I.Ô 3 .0 6-85 1.8 1.0 0 .6 1.4 3-86 6—86 7-86 123.0 0 .0 123.6 123.% 1.1 0 .4 0 .0 0 .3 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 2 .0 2 .0 2 .7 2 *6 3 .9 9-85 2 .0 1.5 1.5 2 .0 1.7 2 .3 ~ % . 5 - 1 .Ô 0 .5 0 .0 0 .0 0 .6 - 3 .è 124.4 10.2 12+.3 i¿ 3 .6 -6."5” 10-85 1.0 0 .5 0 .3 tt-8 5 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.Ö 2 .3 ä*4 1.3 2.4 l2 *3 l ¿ —85 2 .6 ¿«3 2 .4 2« 8 Z *8 3 .3 4 .3 ¿ .9 4 .2 10.1 8 .0 i —86 2 .9 2 .7 2.7“ 3.1 3 .¿ 3 .6 4 .6 3.5 4 .7 6 .7 6 .9 5 .9 1 .6 - 1 .4 "T.7 1 .7 1.9 l.ö 2 .1 2 .7 1 .5 1.9" "^ 2 l2 % .0 1 2 ?.o 126.2 125.3 ’ —B .2 123.6 ^-86 0. 6 Ö.3 o .2 0 .3 0 .0 O.o 0 .2 - l.l - 1 .1 ö .o - 2 .? —6 .2 - l i . ? -1 5 .1 4-86 l.i 1 .0 1 .0 1.1 1 .0 l.l 1.4 0 .4 0 .6 i.d - 0 .2 - 2 .T - 4 .7 —2 . B ' 11.2 0 .6 0 .6 Ó .7 ò.*> 0*5 Ü. 8 - T ^ 2 ' - 0 .1 0 .0 —1.0 - 2 .7 - 4 .7 —3 .5 0 .9 5—86 123.3 2 .4 5—86 4—86 —1.0 8-85 2.Ô 2-86 123.4 t-85 T^RT" 1-86 123*2 2-85 '2 .9 124.7 M .f Í2 V .2 i¿ 4 .¿ - 3 .8 “ ¿ .6 ¿ .0 - 2 .* Ü.U - l.^ ~ - 2 .5 - 1 .3 "' 2 .4 - ü .i" 1.9 3 .V - l.U - 1 .9 —O .B ¿• J U.'Z” 1 .9 " 2 .9 1.9 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 6-66 7-86 ¿ —86 0 .9 0 *6 0 .5 0.6 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 - 0 .2 —o . 1 0 .7 - 0 .8 7-86 1.Ù Ô .Ô ' 0 .7 Ö.Ä 0 .7 0.7 1.0 0 .2 0 .3 l.l - 0 .2 fl-86 1.1 0 .9 0. 8 0 .9 '(r;* 0 .8 1.0 0 .3 0 .4 1.2 0 .0 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 4-86 5-86 124.6P 124.6P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM INARY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS S E P r ERBER 16» 1986 7 " PERSONAL R A T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS INCOME MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES SEASO N A LLY AD JUSTEO R A T I O SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 .0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 2.0 1 . 1.8 1.6 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN9E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUMOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL MONTH 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 Ul M 1 0» 'BILLIONS OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L MONTH 12*2 3-65 9 .0 4-85 9*7 8 .5 ll.l 5-85 5*8 3 .6 2 .7 - 5 .0 6-85 5 .9 4 .4 3 .9 0 .4 5-85 6-85 7-85 6-85 9-85 10-65 11-65 12—65 1-86 2—86 4-66 5-86 6—66 7-86 3*258.3 3 ,2 7 3 .8 5 .9 3 .3 0 2 .7 3 ,2 8 6 .5 3 ,3 0 4 .9 6 .2 5 .5 4 .3 3 .9 1.5 5 .0 3 .9 w\ CD 1 <0 3 ,3 1 5 .4 7-85 5*0 3 .9 3 .5 1 .6 3 .9 2 .9 9-85 5 .0 4 .0 3 .7 2 .3 4 .2 3 .6 3.4 5 .0 5*4 4 .6 4 .5 3 .4 5 .2 4 .9 5 .3 7 .0 11-85 5*4 4 .7 4 .5 3 .6 5 .2 5 .0 5 .2 6 .4 7.1 5 .1 12-85 6 .5 5 .9 5 .9 5 .3 6 .8 7 .0 7 .6 9.1 10.5 11.2 17.5 1-86 5 .9 5 .3 5 .3 4 .7 5 .9 5 .9 6 .2 7.1 7 .7 7 .2 8 .3 2-86 5 .9 5 .4 5 .4 4 .8 6 .0 6 .0 6 .3 7 .0 7 .5 7 .0 7 .7 3.1 6 .5 3-86 5 .8 5 .3 5 .2 4 .7 5 .7 5 .7 5 .9 6 .5 6 .8 6 .3 6 .6 3 .2 5 .0 3 .5 4-86 6 .4 6 .0 6 .0 5 .6 6 .6 6 .6 7 .0 7 .6 8 .0 7 .8 6 .3 6 .2 6 .4 9 .3 10-85 3-66 1 .9 3 ,3 2 0 .5 3 ,3 3 3 .9 3 ,3 5 8 .3 9 .1 3 ,3 7 2 .3 3 ,4 1 6 .0 3 ,4 1 7 .4 - 0 .2 3 ,4 3 5 .3 3 ,4 4 5 .1 3 ,4 8 6 .6 15.5 5-86 5.8 5 .4 5.4 5 .0 5 .9 5 .8 6 .0 6 .5 6 .7 6 .4 6 .6 4 .5 5.7 5 .5 6 .5 - 1 .9 6-66 5.5 5 .1 5.1 4 .6 5 .4 5 .4 5 .5 5 .9 6 .0 5 .6 5 .6 3 .8 4 .6 4 .1 4 .3 - 0 .8 0 .2 7-86 5 .4 5 .0 5 .0 4 .6 5 .3 5 .2 5 .3 5 .7 5 .7 5.4 5 .4 3 .6 4 .4 4 .0 4 .2 0 .7 2 .0 3 .8 5 .2 5 .2 5 .3 5 .6 5 .6 4 .1 4 .5 5-65 6-85 7-65 8-85 6-86 7-86 6-86 5 .4 5 .0 4 .9 4*6 1—85 2-85 3-85 4-85 3 .9 4 .4 4 .1 4 .2 1 .6 2 .6 9-85 10-65 I t —85 12-05 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 5-86 5 .3 5 .3 I N I 11AL H4JNIH P- PRELIMINARY 3 ,4 8 1 .3 SEPTEMBER 2 2 , 1966 8 3 ,4 6 1 .9 3 ,4 9 2 .6 3 ,5 0 5 .3 P " RETAIL SALES R A T I O SCALE B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1978 1979 R A T I O SCALE B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JULY, AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R ET A IL SALES CflHPUUMDEP ANNUAL RATES Of CHAMfiE £f_ OOLLARS MONTH 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-06 4-06 5-06 6-86 7-06 111,935 2-85 16*6 3—85 8*4 0*7 4-85 14*3 13*1 27*1 111,999 114,256 113,992 5-85 9 .8 7 .6 11*2 -2*7 6-85 6*5 4 .2 5*4 -4*1 -5*4 7-85 7*6 5 .9 7.2 1*3 3 .4 12*9 8-85 9*0 7 .8 9*3 5*3 8*1 15*5 18.1 9-85 11*9 11.3 13*1 10*5 14*1 21*5 26*0 34*3 119,110 3 .8 4*3 0*9 i* 7 3*5 0*6 -7*2 -35*9 114,785 5*4 4*2 4*6 1*8 2*5 4*2 2*1 -2*7 -17.2 12-85 6*3 5*3 5*8 3*4 4*4 6*1 4*8 1*7 -7*4 11*4 15*9 1-86 6*2 5 .3 5*8 3*6 4*4 5*9 4*8 2*3 -4*4 9*2 10*4 5*1 2-86 5*6 4*7 5.1 3*1 3*8 5*0 3*9 1*7 -3*8 6*4 6*3 1*8 -1*5 10-85 11-85 113,460 114,620 116,224 115,433 7*0 116,861 117,349 117,200 116,684 4*8 3*9 4*2 2*3 2*8 3*8 2*7 0*7 -4*0 4*0 3*3 -0*6 -3*4 -5*2 5*2 4*4 4*7 3*0 3*6 4*5 3*6 1*9 -2*0 5*2 4*8 2*2 1*3 2*7 11*1 5-86 5*5 4*8 5*1 3*6 4*1 5 .0 4*3 2*8 -0*6 5*9 5*7 3*8 3*4 5*1 10*7 10*2 6-86 5*3 4*7 4*9 3*5 4*0 4 .8 4*1 2*8 -0*2 5*5 5*3 3*3 4*6 0*0 6*5 2*9 7-86 5*2 4*6 4*8 3*5 3*9 4 .7 4*0 2*9 0*1 5*2 5*0 3*5 3*3 4*3 6*0 5*3 3*0 3*0 8-86 5 .4 4*9 5*1 3*9 4*3 5 .0 4*5 3*4 1*0 5*7 5*5 4*3 4*2 5*1 7*3 6 .4 5*2 6*3 9*7 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-06 4-06 5-06 6-06 7-86 1-85 tr <D 1 <M 3-86 4-86 3*6 117,715 118,675 118,960 il9 * 2 5 8 P 120,178E IN IT IA L MONTH P- PR E L I M I N A R Y E— E S T I M A T E D PR E P A R E D BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUÍS SE P T E M B E R 12, 1986 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION, B U S IN E S S SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE----TERMINAL QUARTER 1977*100 IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-81 4-81 6 .5 1-82 8*4 1-82 4-81 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 l- 8 £ 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 147.6 151.3 153.8 2-82 7 .9 8.6 6 .8 7 .8 8.2 7 .1 7 .5 4-82 7 .1 7 .2 6 .2 5 .9 4 .4 1-83 6 .6 6 .6 5 .7 5 .3 4 .3 2-83 6 .0 5.9 5 .0 4 .6 3 .7 3 .3 2 .5 3-83 5 .4 5.3 4 .4 4 .0 3 .1 2 .7 2 .0 1.5 3.1 3 .4 5 .4 4-83 10.4 3-fi 2 4-63 3-83 5.3 4 .6 4 .2 156.6 158.3 159.9 4 .1 3 .6 3 .3 160.9 161.5 163.6 5 .3 165.9 1-84 5 .4 5.3 4 .7 4 .4 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .2 5 .5 5 .7 2-84 5.2 5.1 4 .5 4 .2 3 .8 3 .7 3 .6 3 .9 4 .6 4 .3 2 .9 3-84 5 .2 5.0 4 .5 4 .3 4 .6 4 .4 3 .8 4 .6 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 167.1 169.0 170.6 4-84 5 .1 4 .9 4 .5 4 .2 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .5 4 .3 3 .8 4 .2 3 .8 1-85 5 .0 _ 4 .9 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 3 .8 3.8 4 .0 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 2-85 5 .0 4 .9 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .5 4 .4 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 5 .2 3-85 5 .0 4 .9 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .4 4*6 4*8 4 .4 172.3 174.5 176.4 4-85 4 .9 4 .8 4 .4 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 .3 4 .1 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 4 .4 4 .1 3 .7 1-86 4 .8 4 .7 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .5 3 .1 2 .5 2-86 4 .7 4 .6 4 .2 4 .1 3 .8 3 .8 3.8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3 .8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .4 3 .0 2 .7 2 .9 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 178.0 179.1 180.4 IN IT IA L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, B U SIN ESS SECTOR _________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________ TERMINAL QUARTER 3-81 4-81 —5 .4 1-82 - 2 .9 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 9 9 .9 - 0 .4 9 9 .8 100.2 2-82 - 1 .4 0 .6 1 .6 3-82 - 1 .0 0.5 1 .0 0 .4 4-82 - 0 .2 1.1 1 .6 1 .6 1-83 1977*100 IN IT IA L QUARTER 0 .4 1.6 2 .1 100.3 101.0 2 .8 2*3 3 .2 101.9 3 .6 103.5 2-83 1 .2 2 .4 3 .0 3 .3 4 .3 5 .0 6 .4 3-83 0 .8 1.8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .7 2 .6 2 .2 - 1 .9 4-83 1.1 1.9 2 .3 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 2 .5 0 .6 3 .1 103.0 103.8 104.9 1-84 1 .4 2.2 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .1 2 .9 1.8 3 .7 4 .3 2-84 1 .5 2 .2 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .0 3 .4 3 .5 2 .7 3-84 1 .4 2.0 2 .2 2 .3 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .1 - 0 .4 4-84 1.3 1.8 2 .0 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 1.3 1 .9 1.6 0 .8 - 0 .2 0 .0 1-85 1.2 1.8 1 .9 2 .0 2 .1 2 .0 1.8 1.2 1 .7 1.5 0 .8 0 .1 0 .4 0 .6 2-85 I* ? 1.8 2 .0 2 .0 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1 .4 1.9 1 .7 1.1 0 .8 1 .1 1 .7 2 .7 1 05.6 105.5 105.5 105.7 106.4 107.3 3-85 1 .4 2 .1 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1«6 2 .1 1.9 1.5 1 .3 1 .7 2 .3 3 .1 3 .4 4-85 1.2 1.6 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1 .8 1 .6 l.i 1 .5 1.2 0 .8 0 .5 0 .7 0 .9 0 .9 0 .0 - 3 .3 1-86 1.3 1.7 1 .8 1 .8 1 .9 1 .9 1 .7 1 .3 1 .6 1.5 1.1 0 .9 1 .1 1*4 1 .5 1*1 0 .0 3 .4 2-86 *•2 1.6 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1 .7 1 .6 1 .2 1 .5 1.3 1 .0 0 .8 0 .9 1 .1 1.1 0.8 - 0 .1 1 .5 - 0 .4 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-05 4-85 1-86 1 06.4 107.3 1 07.2 I N IT IA L QUARTER NtefrAft66' feV PÉfttÉftÀL ftg & R V S fcANK Ófr ST . ~L fiÜ fS AUGUST 2 ? , 1986 10 P R O D U C T IV IT Y , RATI O C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND LABO R C O STS RATI O S C A LE 1977- 100 SOURCEt P ER CEN TA BE S ARE ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANBE F M L A T E S T DA T A P L O T T E D « PE RI ODS SCALE 1 977- 100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED U.S. DE PARTME NT OP LABOR INDI CATED. 2N0 OUARTER PREPAREO BY F EDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUI S UNIT LABOR COSTS, B U SIN ESS SECTOR __________________ CQHPOWtDEP AMNUAl .RATES. QE CHANCE__________________ QUARTER 3-81 4-81 12.5 4-81 1-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-64 1-65 2-65 3-65 4-65 1-66 147.6 1-82 11.5 10.4 2-02 9*4 7 .9 5 .4 3-82 8 .9 7 .6 6 .3 4-B2 7 .3 1-63 2-82 151.5 153.5 156.2 7 .2 156.8 6 .1 4 .7 4 .3 1 .5 4 .8 3 .5 2 .9 0 .8 0 .0 156.8 155.5 2-83 4 .7 3 .4 2 .1 1 .3 —0 .6 - 1 .7 - 3 .3 3-63 4 .5 3 .4 2 .3 1 .7 0 .4 0 .0 0 .0 3 .4 4-83 4 .3 3 .3 2 .3 1 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0 .8 2 .8 2 .3 1-64 4 .0 3.1 2 .2 1 .7 0 .9 0 .7 0 .9 2 .3 1.8 1.3 2-84 3 .6 2.8 2 .0 1 .6 0 .8 0 .6 0 .8 1 .8 1.3 0.8 0.3 156.8 157.7 158.2 158.3 3-84 3 .7 3 .0 2 .3 1 .9 1.3 1.2 1 .4 2 .4 2 .2 2.1 2 .5 4 .9 4-64 3 .7 3 .0 2 .4 2 .1 1.5 1 .6 1.8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 3 .0 4 .3 3 .8 1-85 3 .7 3.1 2 .5 2 .2 1 .7 1 .8 2 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 3.1 4 .1 3 .7 3 .5 2-85 3 .6 3.0 2 .5 2 .2 1 .8 1.8 2 .0 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .9 3 .6 3 .2 2 .9 2 .2 3-85 3 .5 2 .9 2 .4 2 .1 1 .7 1 .7 1 .9 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 3 .1 2 .6 2 .2 1 .6 1.0 4-85 3 .7 3.1 2 .7 2 .5 2 .1 2 .2 2 .4 3 .0 2 .9 3.0 3.2 3 .8 3 .5 3 .5 3 .4 4 .1 7 .2 1-86 3 .4 2 .9 2 .5 2 .3 1.9 2 .0 2 .1 2 .6 2*6 2 .6 2.7 3 .1 2 .8 2*6 2 .4 2 .4 3 .2 - 0 .7 2-66 3 .4 2.9 2 .5 2 .3 2 .0 2 .0 2 .2 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .8 3 .1 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .6 3*1 1 .1 2 .9 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-64 2-84 3-84 4-64 1-65 2-65 3-85 4-65 1-86 160.2 161.7 163.1 164.0 164 .4 167.3 167.0 168.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER P R E P A R E O BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST* LOUIS A U G U S T 27, 1 9 8 6 11 GROSS NATIONAL PROOOCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS ---- CÖHPOUNOEO SWWAL RATES (J E CHANCE------ QUARTE* I nIT Ial TERMINAL QUARTER 3 -8 i 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 4-Ö1 1.9 1 -8 2 0« 8 2 -8 2 2*6 2 .9 6.2 3-82 Z .b 2 .0 4 .3 2 .5 4 -8 2 2*9 3 .1 4 .3 3 .4 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1- 8T " " 2 - Ï3 3-33 1-54 -¥=03 2-84" 3^-8* 4-84 1-85 T - 8 5 “T-85 " 4-^05 B IL L IO N S OF " P ULLARS ANNUAL RATES l-B«- 3*114.4 - ■ 0.2 3 * i l 2 . 6 " 3 * 1 5 9 .5 " ' 3 »179.4 4 .2 3 * 2 1 2 .5 1 -8 3 3 .5 3 .9 4 .9 4 .5 5 .5 6 .8 2-83 4 .8 “ 573" 6 .5 6.6 8. Ü v .v l i . i i 3 -8 3 5 .4 5 .9 7 .0 7 .1 8 .3 9.7 1 1 .2 9 .* 4-Ö3" 6*2 6 .7 7 .7 8.CT 9 .1 1 0 .4 11. 6 ÌU .9 1 ^ .4 3*203.6 3*367.4 3*443.9 3 * 5 4 5 .6 1-84 7*0 7 .6 8 .6 9 .0 1 0 .1 1 1 .3 1 2 .* 1 3 .6 1 4 .9 3*6T0.9~ 2-84 7.1 7 .6 8 .6 8 .9 9 .8 LU. f 1 1 .5 1 1 .2 1 1 .8 1 1 .5 3*743.8 3-84 7 .0 7 .5 8 .3 Ô .5 9 .3 l O . i 1Ü. 6 1 0 .1 10.3“ 4— 84 6 .9 7 .3 8.0 8 .2 8.8 1-85 6 .9 7 .2 7 .9 6 .1 2-65 6 .8 t.l 7 .7 7 .9 9 .7 7.1 t». i ¥ .2 " 8 .5 6. % 5 .5 3*799. T 4 .9 3*445.6 9.4 9 .8 9 .3 8.6 9 .1 9 .4 8 .9 B .tT 8. 1 6 .5 "5.9' 5 ^ 9 0 .0 8 .4 8.8 9 .0 8.5 8 .4 7 .7 6 *4 *►.9 5 .8 6 .3 7 .6 6 .4 6. 1 6 .1 6 .5 6 .3 6 .8 ' ' 3 *9 09 .3 3 *955 .TT 3-Ô5' ' 6 .8 7 .1 7 .7 7 .8 8.2 8 .6 8.8 8.3 8.2 4-85 6 .7 7 .0 7 .5 7 .6 8.0 fl.4 8 .5 8 .1 7*9 7 .4 6 .3 6.0 6*0 6.j 6.1 6« 1-86 6 .7 7 .0 7 .* T .5 7 .9 8. 2 8 .3 7 .9 7 .7 7 .2 6 .3 6 .1 6.0 6 .3 6.1 6 .2 6 .0 6 .2 2—86 6 .5 6 .7 f.2 7 .2 7 .5 /•8 ” 7 .9 /•4 1 .3 6 .8 5«C> 5 .5 5 .0 5 .4 " 5 .3 4 .8 4 .3 2 *6 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 " 5~.9“ 1—84 ” i % *U 4 U .9 4 * ü o i. f 5 .8 9 * 1 9 9 .2 4 * 1 7 3 .ò IN IT IA L QUARTER GROSS NATIONAL PROÜUCT IN 1962 OOLLARS tONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATÉS OÉ CHANGE B IL L IO N S OF 4-81 1-82 2-82 *5« 7 -5 .9 2-82 - 3 .4 3-82 - 3 .4 - 2 .7 • 1-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-03 4-03 3-84 4-04 f-05 "¿- 0 5 “ - i.ö 3 * 154.5 - 3 .2 0.6 2.0 - Ò .8 3 * i3 ? .3 3 * 106.6 3 .5 0.8 2 .2 2 .5 4 .4 6 .4 9 .3 1 .5 2 .8 3 .2 4 .8 6 .3 7 .7 6 .0 4-83 1.4“ 2 .2 3 .5 3 .8 5 .3 6 .5 7 .5 6.7 7.3 1-84 2 .2 “ 3 .1 ' 4 .2 4TT~ 6.0 7.2 8. 1 7 .7 8 .5 9 .8 3*256.3 3 *306.4 3*365.1 3 *444.7 2-84 2. * “ 3 .3 4 .3 4 .7 5 .9 6 .8 7 .5 7 .0 "7.* T i4 5 . IT 3-84 ¿ .4 3 .2 ' 4.1 4 .5 5 .4 6 .2 6 .6 6.1 6.1 5. f 3 .r 3 .0 3 .9 4 .2 5 .0 5 .6 5 ;9 5 .3 5 .1 9 .0 " 3*467.1 3*507.4 ¿ m i" 2 .9 " ~ IW - ■ r.5” 2. 3 1-8 5 ¿.4 3 .0 3 .8 4.8 5 .3 5 .5 5 .0 4 .8 4 .3 3 .0 ¿ .3 2-85 2 .4 3 .0 " 3 .7 4 .6 5 .Ù 5 .1 4 .6 4 .4 9 .0 2. S' ' ¿m5~ "ZV3T ¿ . I 2 .3 3 - 8 5 2 .5 3 .1 3 .7 4 .5 4 .9 5 .0 4 .6 4 .4 9 .0 " 3 .T ¿ •t ' 3 .2 3 .* 2 .9 2 .0 i.l 3 .1 3 .9 2 .5 3 .0 3 .6 “ * 73~ 4r r _ W19 4 .3 4TL 3 .0 1— 86 2 .5 3 .0 3 .6 4 .3 4 .6 4 .7 4 .3 4 .1 3 .0 2-06 2 .4 2 .9 3 .4 3 .6 4 .1 4 .3 4 .9 4 .u j.b •5.% 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-03 ” "4 -T 5 3 -8 1 3-ff* "4-T5 3 * 1 J9 .9 0.6 4-04 2-84 1 .2 3-83 2-83 1-84 3 * ir o . 4 4-82 - 1 .6 3-82 ANNUAL RATES 1-8S" 3*219.0 -5 .5 1 fs> 3-81 4-81 1-83 "Dw x w n r IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL 4-03 ' " 2 .9 z .6 3 .Ü 2T7~~ 2 .7 2 .5 1-04 2-84 " Z .7 " 2 .T T 3 .1 2.1 2.6 3-04 4-04 1-05 3 * 5 2 0 .4 " 3 * 5 4 7 .0 “ 3 * 5 6 7 .6 4 .1 ~ 3 .1 — 3 * 6 4 )3 .6 3 * 6 2 2 .3 2 .1 3 * 6 3 9 .9 3 .3 2 .9 3 .0 2 * 6 2.1 2 .2 0 .6 4-05 1-06 2-05 3-05 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO UIS SEPTEMBER 18, 1986 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L P RO D U C T RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S -------u ---------- u _ i ------ L L ----1— u ------- u ----------1— 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 S O U R C E « P E R C E N T A G E S A R E L A T E S T P L O T T E D « D A T A A N N U A L R A T E S 2 N D O F C H A N C E F O R P E R I O O S 1------ 1---------- 1— 1984 U .S . 1985 D E P A R T M E N T l------2 1986 O F C O M M E R C E I N D I C A T E D . O U A R T E R PREPARED 13 BY FED ERA L RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS . 7 GENERAL PRICE INDEX* R A T I O SCALE 1982- 100 1978 R A T I O SCALE 1982- 100 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 *AS USED IN NATIONAL INCONE ACCOUNTS 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt 2ND OUARTER RAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR MOSS NATIONAL PROOUCT -----------tóHtWkteò 3-81 4-81 kkkùÀL HAT« ÖF CHAN6E------------ INITIAL QUARTER TERMINAL 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 2-83 1-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 i-U £-85 " 4 6 .8 8*3 9 8.2 1-82 7*1 5 .9 2-82 6*4 5 .4 5 .0 9 9 .4 lOU.O 3-82 6*2 5 .5 S.4 5*8 4-82 5*7 5 .1 4*8 4*7 3*6 1-83 5*3 4 .7 4*4 4*2 3*4 3.2 4 .4 4*1 i* 4 3*3 3*2 3*2 2-83 lO l.T 1 0 2 .5 103.3 104.2 3-83 4*8 4 .3 4*0 3*8 3*4 3,3 3 .3 3 .5 4-83 4*8 4 .3 4*1 4*0 3*6 3 .6 3.8 4*1 4*7 1-84 4*8 4 .4 4*2 4*1 3*8 ¿ .8 — 4*0 4*3 4*7 2-84 4*6 4 .2 4*1 3*9 3*7 3.7 3-84 4 .5 4 .2 4*0 3*9 3*7 3.7 “ “ 3.7 - 3 * 9 “ 4-84 4*4 4 .1 3*9 3*8 3*6 3.6 3.8 4*0 1 0 $ .4 106.6 4*ó 4.1 3*8 3*9 ^•7“ i. r - 3*6 3.3“ 109.2 ."3.5" 3.4 3.5 3 .2 3 .3 i.T ~ 3 .2 3*5 "in - ¿ .3 3.3' 3 .5 3*3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3.1 3.3 * .3 3*2 3 .0 3 .0 3.0 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4 .4 4 .1 3*9 3*8 3*6 3 .6 3 .7 3*8 3.8 3*6 3*4 2-85 4*3 4 .0 3*9 3*8 3*6 3 .6 3 .6 3*7 3.T 3*6 3-85 4*2 3 .9 3*8 3*7 3*5 3 .5 3.5 3*6 3*6 3*4 4-85 4*1 3 .9 3*8 3*7 3*5 3.5 3.5 3*6 3*6 1 -8 6 4*1 3 .8 3*7 3*6 3*4 3 .4 3 .5 3*5 2 -8 6 3 .9 3 .T 3*6 3*5 3*3 3 .) ^*3 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 108.3 3 .4 3.5 3.4 1-85 ~ 3.4 3.4 • 3*8 IÖ 7 .4 3*0 "3 .7 llG .z III.I 3 .3 3 .6 3.6 2.T3.T” ¿.9“ 3 .1 2 .5 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .T " 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 ¿ .* ■ 3 .2 ill.8 1É2.8 4-85 1 1 3 .5 1.8 114.U 1-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS SEPTEMBER 18» 1986 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS ----------- co * p o u W j e d " a **U a l AATfcS o * ¿U a M £ -----------TERMINAL QUARTER 3-81 4-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3—82 4^82 1^83 2=83 3-83 4=83 1=84 2=84 3=84 ¥=8? 1-8 5 2=55 3=53 ¥=55 r o m a n — ANNUAL RATES 1=55“ 4*0 1-82 5.8 7 .6 "¿-82 "577“ 6.6 “3=52" "6 7 4 " 4-82 772 8 .0 8 .1 9 .4 10.3 1-83 6 .9 > .5 7 .5 8 .2 8 .0 5 .7 2-83 1* 8 8 .4 8. 6 9 .6 9 .3 13.0 3-83 8*0 8 .5 8 .7 9 .5 9 .5 4 .3 11.1 "9".3 8*2 8 .7 8 .9 9 .4 9 .6 $ .4 10.6 9 .5 9 .7 5.2 8 .7 8 .8 9 .5 " 9 .4 9 .2 10.1 9 .2 9 .T " 4-83 " "575------ 2 ,0 2 3 .8 ' "772” "771-- 575“ T , D W . 6 ' _ 2 ,1 1 1 .0 2 ,1 4 6 .6 2 ,2 1 3 .U ¿ ,2 6 2 .0 2 ,3 1 3 .0 2 ,9 6 3 .0 2 ,4 1 6 .1 8 .9 9.5 4 .4 9 .2 9 .9 * .2 '9 . 1 8 .0 8 .4 8 .5 8 .8 8*8 8.6 9 .1 8 .3 8.1 7 .0 5 .0 4-84 7.9 8 .3 8 .5 8 .6 8 .6 8.4 8. 8 7 .9 7 .0 6 .0 2 ,4 0 (.2 2 ,5 3 0 .9 1 CD V» 8 .3 3-84 7 .9 8.2 8 .2 8 .5 8 .5 8.3 8 .4 2-85 7 .8 8 .1 8 .2 8 .4 8 .4 8^ 6.4 3-85 7 .9 8 .1 8 .2 8 .4 • 00 ¿-84 OB • «4 i-8 4 B IL L IO N S OF — IN IT IA L QUARTER 8.2 8.4 4-85 7 .8 8 .0 8 .0 8 .2 8.2 8 .0 6.2 1-86 7 .6 t.8 7 .8 8 .0 7 .9 7.7 7 .9 ¿-86 7 .5 7 .7 7 .7 7 .8 7 .7 7 .5 7 .T 3-81 4-81 1—82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 9 .1 2 ,4 4 5 .6 7.8 7.1 6 .4 Y .T 7 .1 6 .6 '7 . 3 7.7 7 .3 6 .9 7 .7 8 .2 7 .6 7.2 ¿ .8 ~ 7 .3 7^3 /• 5 7 .3 6 .8 ¿ .5 5 .4 ' 5 .T " 5 .5 4 .6 T •3 7.1 ¿ .6 6« 3 6. 3 6 .1 5 .4 4 .9 5 .2 1-84 2-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 7 .9 7 .8 IN IT I 4- 2 ,5 7 6 .0 ¿ ,6 2 7 .1 2 ,6 0 7 .9 6 .4 2 ,6 9 7 .9 2 ,# 3 2 .0 QUARTER _______________________________________________________PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 OOLLARS_______________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A tE S 0? CHANGE _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL IN IT IA L QUARTER OOLLARS QUARTER__________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________ ANNUAL RATES 1-86 3-85 4-85 2-85 1-85 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 " "" 2 ,0 2 0 .0 4-81 -2 .2 1-82 0 .0 2 .2 2-82 0 .6 2 .1 1.9 3-82 1 .0 2.1 2 .0 2,03172 2 ,U 9 1 .0 2.1 2 ,U #8.1 4-82 1.9 2 .9 5.1 3 .7 5 .3 1-83 ¿ .Ó 2'. 4 5.1 3 .5 4 .2 3 .0 2=83 2 .9 3 .8 4 .1 4 .4 5 .4 5.5 8 .0 3—83 5 .2 4 .0 4 .3 4 .8 5 .4 5.4 4 .7 4-83 3.4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .9 5 .4 5 .4 4 .3 1-54 3 .5 4 .2 4 .4 5 .2 5.2 5 .7 4 .9 2-84 5 .7 4 .3 4 .6 4 .9 5 .3 5 .3 5 .8 3-84 3 .5 4 .T 4 .2 4 .5 4 .8 4 .7 5 .0 4=84 3 .5 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .6 4 .5 4. 8 2,IT#4.2 2 ,1 3 5 .1 2 ,1 6 3 .u 5 .3 ... ^ 2 » 191.9 5.5 ¿ ,2 1 3 .0 4 .8 4.1 5 .2 5.2 5.0 6 .0 4 .4 4 .2 3.0 3 .6 1 .3 4 .0 3.6 3 .5 2 .3 3 .J 2 .7 .. ^ 2 ,2 * 6 .3 2 ,2 ^ 3 .3 2 ,2 n . I 1-8$ 3 .5 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 “ 4.4 4 .5 "' 4.1 3.9 3.4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .7 2-85 3 .5 3 .9 4 .1 472“ 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 4 .1 3 .9 3.6 375 3 .5 3 .4 3-85 3 .6 4 .0 “~4:2 4 .3 ” 475 4 .4 4 .4 472 4 .1 3.9 3 .8 " " 3 . 4 3 .9 4 .1 4 .4 4-85 3 .5 3 .9 4 .0 4 .T 4.3 4 .2 4.3" 1-86 3 .5 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 2-86 3 .4 4 .0 4.1 4.2 474 4.3 ■4;4" "471” 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 — 2 ,0 4 1 .0 3-82 4-82 1-83 3 .9 2-83 2 ,2 v 2 .3 2 « 3 ii.v 5 .3 ¿ , 3 4 2 .0 3 . 8 ” 3.5“ 3 .5 3 .1 "3 .5 " 375 3.5" 3 .5 1.7 3.8 3.4 3 .5 3 .2 3 .5 3.5 3 .5 ¿• 6 3 .6 4 .0 3.5“ 3 .8 3 .5 " 3.9 4 .0 375“ 4.0“ 4 .2 " 3 .8 4.^ 6.2 3-84 4-84 3-85 4-85 1-86 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 1-85 2-85 2 ,3 5 1 .r ¿ ,3 f2 .r 2,%WO.% IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS ¿£pT£H6Efc i d , "1955------------------------------- 15 ■■ G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M ESTIC INVESTMENT IN C URRENT O OLLARS ----------- ¿ o MPó u Md éò an * ü a L RATES ÓF CHARSE------------ TE R M I N A L QUAR T E R BIL LIONS OF INITIAL QUARTER “ DÖCLARS ANNUAL RATES 3^81 4-81 -21.8 4^81 1^82 2— 82 3^82 2^83 2^83 VHTÌ F84 M 4 3— 84 4-84 -26 * 5 - 3 0 . 9 -1 6 .6 -1 3 .8 *-82 -1 5 .4 - n . s 4-82 -1 9 .3 -1 8 .7 - 1 4 .2 - 2 3 .3 - 3 2 .7 1-83 - 1 3 .9 -1 2 .2 5=3? 3 .8 3-83 —i . 5 I.8 8 .6 7 .3 4 6 7 .8 457.2 - 6 .8 - I I . 1 - ÌÓ .3 - 3 .0 6« t 8 .8 “ 1 4 .4 ' 14.2 1 5 .4 2 2 .0 --- 4UV.6 428*3 14.6 38.1 5975” 37.4 47.2 41 .6 461*3 5 1 9 .? 35.9 49.8 45.1 54.9 " 8 .7 12.7 19.8 2 1 .7 2 8 .6 46.4 54. Ò 52.2 6 l.O 67 .4 7 .7 11.2 17.3 18.6 2 3 .8 3771“ 4Ö.9 34.6 36.8 2 8 .6 —1.2 ¿-84 7 .7 10.9 16. 3 17.3 2 1 .8 32.5 34.8 30.3 29.0 21.3 3 .3 8 .0 ' 4=ffT" ¿n 9 .5 14.1 14.8 18.4 27.0 28.2 23.6 ~ 2 T 1 2 ~ 1%*U 0 .3 l.i - 5 .* 1-85 5 .7 8 .2 12*3 12 .7 15.7 22.8 23.2 18.8 16.2 9 W " 2-85 6 .0 8 .3 li.2 1 2 .6 15.2 21.5 21.8 17.7 15.3 V .B 1.5 -0*0 1 *8 U.U -1*9 -ovr —0 .1 7. 3 10.8 1 1 .Ö 13.3 18.8 18.7 14.4 12.5 657 .5 670.3 —1 .3 u.v 7 .4 —0 .2 661.1 650*6 — o*£ 66? *1 IU*9 2 .1 03 i '— 5* 4-85 5.4 7 .4 10.6 10.8 12. 8 17.8 17.6 14.1 11.9 7.5 Ö.9 1.2 3 .9 U. 7 1-84 6 .4 è.3 11.4 ll.7 ir . r ~ 18.4 18. 3 15. 1 13.2 9 .3 3#6 4 .3 3*7 ' 5 "./“ 8 .9 ”' B * J " 16. 1 IO . 7 /•U ■ T".9 ¿•¿. 1*4 ¿•0 4 .5 3*U 6* 1 2-83 3-83 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2—65 3-85 5 .4 7 .1 9 .9 ld .i 11.8 " r r .9 ~ '1 5 . 7 ' 12.6 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 4-83 579.8 659.5 1-84 2-84 2—86 i-86 -3 .2 - 1 2 .7 —6 .0 5 .2 2=85 7 .4 2-83 3=dT" i=B5 %i9.5 1-82 3 .6 P83 ~304.D 2-82 4-83 ^82 1-84 66^.5 #*o 708.3 25*3” " 68T?3 3 *4 "—11*3 4-85 1-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER CROSS PRIVATE OOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 OOLLARS töWoöKöIb XkMTkC AATE5 OF CHANCE TERMINAL QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5=4*" 4=«" ANNUAL RATES 1-64 4-81 - 2 T .2 517*9 1-82 -31*5 -3 5 .5 464*2 447*5 2-82 -21*5 -1 8 .5 2*9 3-82 -20*0 - Ì 7 . 4 —4*6 4-82 -22*3 -21.1 -1 5 .6 -23*5 -31*0 1-83 -1 6 .6 -1 4 .3 -15*2 4411*6 408*8 19*1 3 .9 4*1 11*5 41*4 68*9 -3 .3 0 .8 8 .5 9*7 17*0 39*5 51*0 35*0 4-83 1.3 5*6 13.3 15*1 ¿2 *3 41*2 ■45.T- 40*5 1-84 6 .0 10*6 18*3 20*6 28*0 44*8 52.Ó 46.8 2-84 5 .5 9 .5 16*1 17*9 23*6 36*2 39.9 3 3 32*4 24*7" 3-84 5 .5 9 .2 15*0 33.5 27.4 25*4 W *3~ 4-84 4.4 7 .9 l3 * 0 1-85 3*8 6*6 11*2 ~ i 2 * ó 15*1 1 N 427*1 -9*4 - 4 .0 4*3 7*0 11*2 11*9 3-85 3*5 6*0 9*8 4-85 3 .7 6*0 9*5 1-86 4*5 6*8 2-86 3*6 3-81 2-83 -7 *7 ' 3-83 - 8 .0 -11*4 486*9 524*8 44*3 53*1 577*2 649*3 60*1 449*7 0*2 658*9 «0 21*2 31.4 “14*1 ' 17*4 7 J.T 27.1 21*2 T B .T - 12*4 0*1 0*1 —5*4 2i.9 2 2.2" 14*7 13*9 8*4 -1*7 -2 *4 —4*2 -7 *0 14*8 20*é 21*0 14*0 13*4 a*9 0*8 o*9 - o .r 1*0 11.* 10*3 IÌ.8 ìà .ó 17.8 13*2 10*é 4*4 —0*6 —0*7 —2*3 —1*2 1*8 -7 *0 10*0 li.3 16*9 16*7 12*5 1Ö.2 4*4 0*3 0*4 -O* i 0*5 3*1 -0*7 6*0 10*2 10*7 12*8 17*2 17*0 13*2 11*2 2*4" 3*0 2*5" 4*2 7*2 5*8 12*9 3*7 8*8 9 *2 ii* r 14*9 14*6 10*9 9*0 3 *8 l* ü 1*1 u*9 1*5 3*1 1*4 <*^ 4-81 1-82 2-82 3— 82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4— 84 1-85 2-85 3-85 16*5 3*0 5*8 649.9 e>«*^ 033*0 6 7 i* v 033*2 o84*0 20*2 j * o -I U .B 4-85 o64* 1 1-86 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS 16 “" GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS ANO S E R V IC ES IN CURRENT OOLLARS COHPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ B IL L IO N S UF TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ OOLLARS ~ANKUAL R A It S ----QUARTER 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 3-81 4-81 1-83 2-83 3-83 4*83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 6 13 .3 5 .9 622.1 625.7 2 .3 2-82 7 .7 4 .1 3-82 9*3 7 .4 8 .2 14.4 10*7 9 .5 10.8 15.3 16.2 1-83 8*4 7 .1 7 .4 9 .1 6 .6 - 2 .2 2-83 7*8 6 .6 6 .8 7 .9 5 .8 1 .0 4 .3 3-83 7*2 6 .1 6 .2 7 .0 5 .2 1 .8 3 .8 6* 1 5 .0 4 .9 5 .3 3 .6 0 .6 1 .6 1-84 6*5 5 .6 5 .6 6 .0 4 .7 2 .5 3 .8 3 .6 3 .7 2-84 CD • ** 10*5 +> 1 CD N 15*3 1-82 1 0» w 4-81 7 .4 7 .6 8 .3 7 .4 6 .0 7 .7 8 .6 10.4 17.6 25.2 3-84 7*9 7 .3 7.4 8 .0 7 .2 6 .0 7 .4 9 .3 13.6 15.1 5 .9 4-84 8*1 7 .6 7 .7 8 .3 7 .6 6 .6 7 .9 8 .5 9 .6 12*9 13.7 8 .4 647.1 671.8 668.1 675.2 680.7 3 .3 676.1 - 2 .7 693.2 10.5 7 33.3 743.8 763*4 11.0 8*1 7 .6 7 .7 8 .2 7 .6 ' 6 .7 7 .9 8 .4 9 .3 11.8 12.1 8.1 9 .2 7 .5 M 1 0» s* 7 77.3 1-85 8*3 7 .9 8 .0 8*5 8 .0 7 .2 8*3 8 .8 9 .6 11.8 12.0 9 .0 10.0 9 .5 11.6 3-85 8*8 8 .4 8 .6 9 .1 8 .6 8 .0 9 .1 9 .6 10.4 12.4 12.7 10.4 11.5 1 1 .7 13 .9 1 6 .3 4-85 9*1 £• 7 8 .9 9 .4 9 .0 8 .4 9 .4 9 .9 10.7 12.5 12.8 10*8 11.9 12.1 13.7 14.7 13.1 1-86 8*0 7 .6 7 .7 8 .1 7 .6 7 .0 7 .8 8 .1 8 .6 9 .9 9 .9 7 .8 8 .2 7 .6 7 .6 6*3 1 .7 - 8 .5 8*2 7 .8 7 .9 8 .3 7 .9 7 .3 8 .1 8 .4 8 .9 10.1 10.1~ 8*3 8 .7 8 .3 8 .5 7 .7 5 .0 1 .2 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2—85 3-85 4-85 2-86 7 9 9 .0 829.7 8 55.6 836.7 1 2 .0 l- W GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS ANO S ER V IC ES IN 1982 OOLLARS _________ COHPOUNPSO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE____________________ TERMINAL QUARTER AMMML 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 63 5 .9 634 .6 1-82 1*4 -0*8 —0* I -1*9 -3*1 3-82 2*0 1*4 2*5 8*4 4-82 3*8 3*8 5*4 9*9 11*4 629.7 642.5 660.1 649.2 1-83 2*0 1*7 2*3 4*2 2*1 —6*4 2-83 1*9 1*6 2*0 3*4 1*7 -2*8 1*1 3-83 1*8 1*6 2*0 3 .0 1*7 -1*3 1*4 1 .7 4-83 0*8 0*5 0*7 1*3 0*0 -2*7 -1*4 -2*7 — 6*8 1-84 1*3 1*0 1*2 1*8 0*8 -1*2 0*2 -0*1 -1*0 650*9 653*6 642*2 650*2 5*1 2-84 2*7 2*6 3*0 3*8 3*1 1*8 3*6 4*2 5*0 11*5 18*4 3-84 2*6 2*5 2*9 3*5 3*0 1*8 3*2 3 .7 4*2 8*1 9*7 1*7 4-84 2*9 2*8 3*2 3*8 3*3 2*4 3*7 4 .1 4*6 7*7 8*6 4*0 6 .3 3*1 3*7 6*6 6*9 3*4 4*2 2*8 KAI 1-86 3 .7 2-82 1-85 B IL L IO N S "U F OOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-81 4-81 860.8 2*8 3*2 2*3 3*5 3 .8 4*2 678*2 681*0 691*5 695*3 2*2 2-85 3*2 3*1 3*4 4*0 3*6 2*9 3*9 4 .3 4*7 6*7 T .l 4*4 5 .4 4 .9 7*7 3-85 3*8 3*8 4*2 4*7 4*4 3*8 4*9 5*3 5*8 7*7 8*2 6*3 7*5 7*8 10*8 1 3 .9 4-85 4*2 4*2 4*5 5*1 4*8 4*3 5*4 5*8 6*3 8*0 8*5 6*9 8*0 8 .4 10 .5 11*9 1 0 .0 1-86 3*2 3 .1 3*4 3*8 3*5 2*9 3*8 4*0 4*2 5*6 5*6 3 .9 4*3 3*9 4*3 3*2 -1.8 -1 2 .3 2 -8 6 3*5 3*5 3*8 4*2 3*9 3*4 4*2 4 .5 4*7 6*0 6*1 4*6 5*0 4*8 5*4 4*8 1 .9 - 1 .9 9 *7 3-81 4-81 1—82 Z—82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 Z—84 3—84 4-84 1 -8 » 2-85 J- 8 5 4-85 1 ^86 708*3 731*8 749*4 725*2 742*2 ......... — PREPARED B F FEUfcRAL RES E R V E BANK, UF S T* LO U IS SEPTEMBER 11« 1986 17 “ D ISPO SABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUMPEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_________ B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 3-84 2-84 1-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2*187.0 4-81 4*7 1-82 4*2 3 .7 2-82 5*0 5 .1 6 .4 3—82 5*4 5 .6 6 .6 6 .7 4-82 5*7 6 .0 6 .8 6 .9 7 .1 1-83 5*6 5 .8 6 .3 6 .2 6 .0 4 .8 6 .9 6 .9 6 .8 8 .7 2*207.2 2*241.8 2 *278.6 2*318.1 2*345.7 2*395.4 2-83 6*0 6 .3 6 .8 3-83 6*3 6 .5 7 .0 7 .1 7 .2 7 .3 8 .5 8 .2 4-83 7 .2 7 .5 8 .1 8 .3 8 .7 9.1 10.5 11.4 14.6 1-84 7 .9 8 .2 8 .8 9 .1 9 .6 10.0 11.4 12.3 14.4 14.1 5 .2 2*443.2 2 *527.9 2*612.7 2*646.3 2-84 7 .6 7 .9 8 .4 8 .6 8 .9 9 .2 10*1 1 0 .5 11.2 9 .6 3-84 7 .6 7 .9 8 .3 8 .5 8 .7 9 .0 9 .7 9 .8 10*3 8 .8 6 .3 7 .4 4-84 7 .4 7 .7 8 .0 8 .2 8 .4 8 .5 9 .0 9 .1 9 .3 8 .0 6 .0 6 .4 5 .4 7 .1 5 .5 5 .5 4 .6 3 .8 7 .4 8 .4 13*2 2*693.8 2 *729.6 2*755.4 1-85 7 .2 7 .4 7 .7 7 .8 7 .9 8 .0 8 .4 8 .3 8 .3 2-85 7*6 7*8 8 .1 8 .2 8 .4 8 .5 8 .9 8 .9 9 .0 8 .1 7 .0 7 .4 3-85 7 .0 7*1 7 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .6 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 6 .7 5 .5 5 .6 5 .1 5 .0 5 .6 - 1 .4 7*5 7 .5 7 .8 7 .7 7 .6 6 .8 5 .8 5 .9 5 .6 5 .6 6 .2 2 .8 7 .3 5 .9 6 .0 6 .5 4 .4 7 .4 7 .5 7 .0 6 .8 6 .0 4—03 4—00 4-85 7*0 7 .1 7 .4 7*4 2 *842.3 1-86 7 .0 7 .2 7 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 7 .8 7 .7 7.6 6 .9 6 .0 6 .1 2-86 7 .0 7 .1 7 .3 7 .4 7 .4 7 .4 7 .6 7 .5 7.5 6 .8 6 .0 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 6 .4 4 .8 4-Bl i- d z 2-ffZ 3-82 4-*7~ 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-83 2-03 2*832.0 2*882.2 2*935*1 2*978.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1R1I1AL UUARIfcR DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 OOLLARS ____ COMPOUMOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL QUARTER U I L L TUNS IfF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-81 4-81 - 1 .6 1-82 - 1 .5 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2*253.T 2*245.7 - 1 .4 2-82 —0 .1 0 .6 2 .7 3-82 0 .0 0 .6 1 .6 0 .4 2*2 60 .9 4-82 0 .5 1 .0 1 .8 1 .3 2*263.4 2*276.1 2 .3 1-83 0 .7 1 .2 1 .9 1 .6 2 .2 2 .2 2-83 1 .2 1 .7 2 .3 2 .2 2 .8 3.1 4 .0 3-83 1 .6 2 .1 2 .6 2 .6 3 .2 3.5 4 .1 4-83 2 .5 3 .0 3 .7 3 .8 *•5 5 .1 6.1 7 .2 10.2 1-84 3 .2 3 .7 4 .4 4 .6 5 .3 6 .0 6 .9 7 .9 9 .8 9 .4 2-84 3 .1 3 .6 4 .1 4 .3 4 .9 5 .3 6 .0 6 .5 7.2 5 .7 2 .2 2 *288.4 2*311.1 2*3 35 .4 4 .3 2*392.7 2 *446.9 2*460.3 3-84 3*1 3 .6 4 .1 4 .2 4«7 5 .1 5 .6 5 .9 6 .3 5 .0 2 .9 3 .6 4-84 3 .0 3 .4 3 .9 4 .0 4 .4 4 .7 5 .0 5 .2 5 .4 4 .2 2 .5 2 .7 1 .8 2*493.1 1-85 2 .8 3 .2 3 .6 3 .7 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4.5 3 .4 2 .0 1 .9 1.1 0 .4 2 *4 95 .7 2-85 3*2 3 .6 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .9 5 .1 5.2 4 .4 3 .4 3 .7 3 .7 4 .7 9 .1 3-85 2 .8 3 .1 3 .4 3 .5 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .1 2 .1 2 .1 1*7 1 .7 2 .3 - 4 .0 4-85 2*8 3 .0 3 .3 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .0 2 .2 2 .2 1 .9 1 .9 2 .4 - 0 .8 2 .6 1-86 3 .0 3 .2 3 .5 3 .6 3 .8 3 .9 4.1 4 .1 4 .1 3 .4 2 .7 2 .8 2 .6 2 .8 3 .4 1 .6 4 .5 6 .5 2-86 3 .2 3 .5 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 4.4 3 .8 3 .2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 4 .1 2 .9 5 .4 6 .8 3-81 4-81 1-8Z 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 3-84 4-84 1-85- 2=85” inniM. 1-84 2 *4 81 .9 2 *5 50 .8 2*5 24 .7 2*540.7 2*581.2 7 .1 2*625.7 3-85 “ 4-85- 1-86 U U A K IU PRfcPARfcO Hr FfcUfeKAL KfcSfcEVfc HANR Uf- S I . LO UIS SEPTEMBER 18, 1986 18 ” CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL R A ÌÉ Ì Ó* tHAHÎÈ TERMINAL W A &Tfeft »-81 1-82 3-8 i 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 2-83 3-83 »-83 1-8» 2^8» »— 8» 1-85 *=85 3-8 5 »-85 l-*6 T ÏÏX - » » * 6 -6 6 .2 1ÖT.5“ -32.9 - » 2 .» 107*0 "10773 - 0 .» »-82 -2 2 .9 -26*0 - 3 .9 1-83 -1 6 .3 -1 7 .7 2 .9 » .5 6*2 26*» - 6 .9 1 » .0 Ì8 .Ì 24.7 »7*3 2-83 1-83 -9*1 -25*7 -30*5 3-82 B IL L IO N S OF --- E H X S K 5 ---ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER - 7 .2 1*1 104*3 - 5 .0 - 1 0 .7 110*6 71. Ì rz s * 6 l» l* o 3-03 - 1 .2 0 .0 19.8 2 » .7 3 1 .» » 9 .5 62.5 53.9 »-83 - 0 .3 0 .8 17.9 21*6 26*1 37.5 » 1 .» 28 .3 7*0 1-8» 0*6 1 .7 16.7 19.6 23*0 31.2 32 .» 2 1 .» 7.8 2-8» 0.1 1.1 1»«2 16.3 18.7 2 »*» 2». 1 1 » .» 3 .6 3-8» - 2 .0 - 1 .» 9 .8 11.2 12.5 16.3 i» .t 4 .8 - 3 .7 »-8» - 2 .3 - l.t 8 .» 9 .5 10.4 ti* 4 11.6 1-85 - 3 .8 -3 *» 5 .» 6.1 6 .6 8*8 6 .7 2-85 - 3 .» - 3 .0 5.2 5 .8 6 .2 8.1 6*2 3-85 - 2 .0 - 1 .5 6 .» 7 .0 7.5 9 .» 7*8 »-85 - 0 .8 - 0 .3 7.2 7 .9 8 .» 10.2 8.8 1-86 - 1 .5 - 1 .0 5.9 6 .* '6.8 8 .3 6 .9 2-86 - 0 .9 - 0 .5 6*1 6 .6 6 .4 8.3 7 .0 3~8l »-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 »-82 1-83 l» 3 * » 8.6 146*» 2.0 144*8 —» . 3 133*0 - 7 .0 —1».Ö -22 6 4.9 3*4 -5*9 —¿ . 5 -11.Ö -l» 2 — 9 -1^*9 - ¿¿.I -Ö .3 -772" ^9*5"-13.9 -16 - 5 .9 - 7 .4 -10.9 12 5 —8 .8 - IÖ .7 Z *2 0 .0 l2 .l 2 .» -2*7 -4.Ö - 6 .0 -6 3 —1.8 - è .7 5 2 .1 ~^7T 14.4 2 3 .9 —0*5 - 1 .4 -y.ö 7.3 0 .7 2 .» - 1 .7 - 2 .6 - 3 .9 -3 è - 0 .3 7 .5 0*9 1 .9 ¿.9 - 0 .8 -1*5 —¿ . 6 -2 » 2-83 3-83 »-83 1-8» 2-1B» 3-8» »-84 1-85 TJÇÏ1 1Z6*0 126* r 22*9 21.1 9*0 0*9 2-85 133*4 19*7 2.T —11*5 4* Ö -2*0 3-85 4-85 139*4 135*2 ' H'mb " I i9*U 1-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ♦ NATIONAL INCOME B A SIS PREPAREO BV FEOERAL RESCRVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS 5 e # T E N B E j r t a ~ t m ---------------------------------------- HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for 1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of Current Business. Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82 and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate volumes. These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy printout. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 IN V EN TORIE S COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 68 6 8 6 4 6 4 6 0 6 0 5 6 5 6 5 2 5 2 1 . 4 8 4 8 4 4 44 1 . 4 0 4 0 3 6 3 6 3 2 3 2 2 8 2 8 2 4 2 4 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 * RAT I OS BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE LATEST DATA PLOTTEDs JULY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 20
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