Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1971
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n n n o n n L
PREPARED
MONTH ENDING:
BY
August 31, 1971
E c o n o m ic
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK
t r c d d s
OF
ST. LOUIS
RELEASED: September 22, 1971
Economic activity advanced at a moderate pace last
spring and summer, according to recent monthly indicators. A
strong rebound from the late 1970 auto strike, combined with
rapid inventory accumulation in preparation for a possible
steel strike, helped boost activity in the first half of this
year. In fact, second quarter GNP gains wer e larger than re
ported previously (see b o x below). Steel inventory liquidation
has tended to restrain production in recent months. It is still
too early to assess the short-term impact of the Administration's
program to stimulate production and employment and to curb in
flation.
The cutback in steel output this summer adversely af
fected both overall industrial production and employment. N e i
ther industrial production nor payroll employment rose in any
month from May to August. Unemployment averaged 5.9 per cent
of the civilian labor force from May to August, little changed
from the 6 per cent average rate in the first four months of
the year. Personal income rose at an 8.7 per cent annual rate
from May to August, after increasing 6 per cent in the preceding
year. N e w housing starts rose each month from A p r i l to August.
Wholesale prices of all commodities increased at a 3.9
per cent annual rate from May to August, compared w i t h a 6.2 per
cent rate of advance from December to May. A slowing of the rate
of increase in wholesale prices of agricultural goods partially
offset recent advances in the wholesale prices of industrial com
modities .
Gross national product and final sales data for the
second quarter of 1971 have bee n revised since the preparation
of charts and triangles on pages 8 - 11 of this release. E s
timates of the net exports of goods and services ha v e b e e n re
vised upward by the Department of Commerce, wit h the effect that
gross national product in current dollars for the second quarter
of 1971 was $1043.1 billion, up from $1041.3 billion, and gross
national product in constant 1958 dollars was $738.4 billion, up
from $737 billion. Final sales data were increased similarly.
As a result of the revision, the U.S. trade deficit in the second
quarter was $. 5 \billion, rather than $ 2 . 2 billion as reported
earlier.
2
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IN IT IA L MONTH
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SFPTF*BFR 3 . 1971
3
E MP L OY ME NT
RATIO
SCALE
RATIO
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
SOURCE:
DATA FOR PAYROLL
PERCENTAGES
EMPLOYMENT R E V I S E D
FROM JANUARY
AUGUST
1971
OF LABOR
1970
ARE ANNUAL RAT E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S
LA T ES T DATA PLOTTEDs
1970
U.S.DEPARTMENT
SCAl E
INDICATED.
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .
l OUIS
4
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PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T .
SEPTEMBER 16« 1971
LOUI S
5
INDUSTRIAL
RATIO
PRODUCTION
SCALE
1963
RATIO
1964
1965
1966
1967
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt
1968
1969
1970
SCALE
1971
I N D I C AT E D .
AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.
LOUIS
6
R E TA IL SALES
COMPOUNDED
ANNUAL
RATES
OF
CHANGE
MILLIONS OF
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INITIAL MONTH
T ER M IN A L
MONTH
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IN IT IA L MONTH
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
PEHSONAL INCOME
C O M P O U N D S ANNUAL RATES Hi- CHANGE
TFavi^AL
40NTM
BILLI O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
INITIAL MONTH
1- 7 0
?-7r
P R EPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 1 0 . 1 9 7 1
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n. '»
6.7
6.5
4.fl
6.0
6.6
6 .7
6 .8
6 .5
7 . fl
8 .6
8 .7
7.4
8 .3
7 .6
8 .3
6-71
3 . ")
4.2
h.l
6.6
7.a
8. 6
8,8
9.1
9 .1
10. 6
1 1 .7
12. 3
1 2 .0
13 .9
15 .3
19 .7
6 .7
6.8
6.6
7 .5
8. 1
8.1
7 .2
7 .7
7 .1
7 .2
6 .7
- 1 4 .0
6.9
5.5
6.6
7. 1
7 .2
7 .1
7 .1
8 .1
8 .6
fl.7
8 .0
8 .5
8 .1
8 .6
8 .7
- 1 . 4
1 1 .0
3- 7 0
4-70
S - 70
6 -7 0
7 -7 0
8 -7 C
11 -7 0
12 -7 0
1 -7 1
2 -7 1
3 -7 1
4 -7 1
5 -7 1
6 -7 1
7 -7 1
7-71
6.7
8- 71
-7j J_ì .
1- 7
?-/r
9 - 10
10 -7 P
INITIAL
p-
8 4 0 .0
19.4
8 7 0 .1
8 4 9 .
MUNTH
preliminary
2P
A A A . OP
PK6PARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEMBER 17* 1971
RETAIL
RATI O
SALES
RATI O
SCALE
BILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SCALE
OF DOLLARS
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
SO U RCE!
PERCEN T AG ES ARE ANNUAL R AT ES OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S
LA TE ST DATA P LO TT E D !
U .S .
departm ent
of
com merce
IN D IC A T E D .
JULY P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPA RED BY FED ERA L R E SE R V E BANK OF ST .
PERSONAL
RATIO SCALÊ
TRILLIONS
INCOME
RATI O
MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
OF DOLLARS
L O U IS
TRILLIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SCALE
OF DOLLARS
0.
0.7
0.
0.6
0.
0.5
0.4
0.
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
SO U R C E i
P ERCEN T AG ES ARE ANNUAL RAT ES QF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S
LA T E ST DATA PLOTTED»
1969
U .S .
1970
1971
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
IN D IC A T E D .
AUGUST P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPA RED BY FEDERA L
R E SE R V E BANK OF ST .
L O U IS
8
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
_____ C Q H P O U N P E P
ANN UA L
R A Tt;$
4- 68
1- 69
QF Q H A N Q E_________
BI LLI ONS OF
ANNUAL RATES
OUARTER
3- 66
1- 67
2- 67
3- 67
4- 67
1- 68
2- 6 8
3- 68
2- 6 9
3- 69
4- 69
1- 70
3- 70
2- 70
4-70
1- 71
770. 7
4 - 66
8. 1
1- 67
5. 0
1. 9
2- 67
5. 1
3. 6
5. 3
8.6
8. 2
774. 4
6.0
5. 3
7. 0
4- 67
6. 3
5. 9
7. 2
784. 5
8 0 0.9
8 1 5 .9
7. 7
1—68
6.8
6. 5
7. 7
8. 5
8. 4
9. 2
2- 68
7. 5
7. 4
8. 5
9.3
9.*^
10.4
11. 7
3- 68
7.6
8. 5
9. 1
9.3
9. 8
10.1
8. 6
7.8
7.0
7. 7
7. 3
92* *Q
4- 6 8
7. 5
8. 3
8. 8
8. 8
9. 1
9. 1
1- 69
7. 5
8.2
8. 6
8. 6
8. 8
8. 7
857. 4
875. 2
890. 2
9 0 6. 4
7. 5
92 1. 8
2- 69
7. 5
8.1
8. 4
8.4
8. 5
8. 3
7.5
7. 2
7. 2
7. 0
3- 69
7. 5
8. 1
8. 4
8.3
8. 4
8. 3
7.7
7. 4
7. 6
7. 6
8.2
4- 69
7. 2
7.6
7. 9
7. 8
7. 8
7. 6
6.9
6.6
6. 5
6. 2
5. 8
7. 4
940. 2
T
^
1 i in/
3.4
948. 0
956. 0
1- 70
6. 9
6.9
7. 3
7. 5
7. 3
7. 3
7.1
6.4
6.1
5. 9
5. 5
5. 0
3.4
3. 4
2- 70
6. 8
6. 7
7.1
7. 3
7. 2
7.1
6.9
6. 3
6. 0
5. 8
5. 4
5. 1
4.0
4.4
5 .3
3- 70
6.8
6.7
7.1
7.2
7. 1
7. 0
6. 8
6. 3
6. 0
5. 9
5. 6
5.3
4.6
5. 0
5 .8
6.3
4- 7 0
6. 5
6.4
6. 7
6. 8
6. 7
6.6
6.4
5. 9
5. 6
5. 4
5. 1
4.8
f 4. l l
4. 3
4 .5
4 .2
7. 3
7. 7
7.1
7. 0
6.5
6. 3
6. 3
6. 1
6.0
5.6
6. 1
6.8
7. 3
7.7
7. 9 i l l . o l
9 6 8 .5
6. 8
2-71
7.0
6. 9
7. 2
7. 3
7.3
7. 2
7. 1
6. 7
6. 5
6. 5
6. 4
6.3
6.0
6. 5
7. 1
7. 5
3- 66
4-66
1- 6^
2- 67
3- 67
4- 67
1-68
2- 6 8
3- 68
4- 68
1- 69
2- 69
3- 69
4- 69
1- 7 0
2- 70
Y-^. +11.0%
3- 70
„ . . 'V
1
6. 9
7. 2
9 8 3 .5
9«ft*4
1. 020. 8
8 .3
0
1-71
\
I
1 .0 4 1 .3
T
3- 67
*
1
'
4- 6 6
I N I T I A L QUARTER
.ÜOMTEft
3-f>6
4- 66
1- 6 7
2 - 1>7
3- 6 7
4—66
4.9
1-67
1.9
2- 67
2. 3
1. 1
3.Ü
3- 67
2. 8
2. 2
3. 7
4.4
4-t>7
2. 8
2.3
3. 4
3.6
2. 8
4- 6 7
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 2 0 . 1971
NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 195S DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
BI LLt ONS OF
I N I T I A L UUAKTER
DOLLARS
""
........... ÄWKJÄE RÀTÉ5
1- 69
2- 69
3- 68 4 - 6 6
3- 69 4 - 6 9
1- 68 2- 68
1- 70
2- 7 0 3 - 7 0 4 - 7 0
1- 71
6 6 8. 1
-0.9
666.6
6 7 1. 6
67 8 . 9
683.6
1- 68
3.2
2.9
3. 9
4.2
4. 1
5.4
2- 68
3.8
3.7
4.6
5.0
5. 2
6. 4
7.5
3-bW
3. 9
3.7
4.5
4.8
4.9
Ô.6
5.8
4.0
4- 6 8
3.7
3.6
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.8
4.6
3. 2
692.6
7 0 5. 3
712. 3
2.4
71 6. 5
1- 69
3. 6
3. 5
4.0
4.2
4. 1
4. 4
4.2
3. 1
2.6
2. 8
2 - 6 ‘»
3.4
3. 3
3.«
3.?
3. 8
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.2
2.2
1. 6
3-69
3. 3
3.2
3. 6
3. 6
3.5
3. 6
3. 4
2.5
2.2
2. 1
1. 8
4-69
2. 9
2.a
3. 1
3.1
i.O
3. 0
2.7
1. 9
1. 4
1.2
0.7
0.3
1-7J
2 . r>
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.4
2. 3
1. 9
1. 2
0.
7
0. 4
-0.2
-0.8
-2.2
-2.9
2-70
.2.4
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.2
2. 2
1. 8
1.1
0.7
0. 4
-0.0
-0.4
-1.2
-1.1
0.7
-0.6
-0.3
1. 0
1- 1. 3 1 - 1 . 3
L...
.1
0.2
0.5
-0.7
-1.4
1. 4
1. 6
1 .8
721.4
7 2 4. 2
2.0
r
727. 8
\
■ST
725. 2
l.w/O—
719. 8
721. 1
3-70
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.3
2. 1
2. 1
1. 7
1. 1
0.«
0. 5
0. 2
-0.1
4-70
1.9
1. 7
1.9
1. 8
1. 6
1. 6
1. 2
0.6
0.2
-O.t
-0.4
-0.8
1-71
2.2
2. 1
2. *
2.2
2.1
2.0
1. 8
1. 2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
2-71
2.3
2.2
2.4
2. 4
2.2
2. 2
1. 9
1. 5
1. 2
l.l
1. 0
0.9
0.7
l.l
1. 9
2.2
2.5
3- 66
4-6o
1- 67
2 - 67
3- 6 7
4-6 7
1- 68
2- 6 8
3- 68
4- 6 8
1- 69
2- 69
3 - 69
4- 6 9
1- 7 0
2- 7 0
3 - 70
1. 2 X
7 2 3. 3
- . r Y
\
+ 6 .0 %
» . A
1 6.0 1 4.1
4-70
715.9
7 2 9. 7
v
1
737.0
1- 71
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 19, 1971
9
DEMAND
RATIO
SCALE
1963
U.GNP
AND
PRODUCTION
TOTALS
AT
QUARTERLY
1964
1965
1966
1967
IN CURRENT DOLLARS.
I2JSNP IN
ANNUAL
RATIO
RATES
1968
SOURCEt
1969
U.S.
1970
SCALE
1971
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1958 DOLLARS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O O S
LATEST OATA PLOTTEOt
I NO I C A T E O .
2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
10
F I N A L S AL F T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
CO MP OU N D ED A NN U A L K A T E S OF C HA NG E
BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
INITIAL QUARTER
TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-*6
4-66
1-67
2-67
i-67
4-67
1-68
2-68
,3-68
4-68
1-69
2-69
3-69
4-69
1-70
3-70
2-70
4-70
1-71
•
4-66
3.7
i-67
5.7
7.7
2-67
*>.5
7.9
8.2
3-67
6.5
7.4
7.1
6.4
4-67
6.6
7.3
7.2
.,8
750.8
764.8
780.0
792.2
7.1
805.9
831.2
1-68
7. f
8.5
8.7
8.8
10.1
2-68
7.7
8.4
8.6
8.7
9.5
10.7
8.2
3-68
a.**
8.6
8.9
9.5
1C. 3
8.9
13.2
847.8
9.6
867.5
882*1-------
4-68
7.9
H.4
s.*
8.5
9.0
9.5
8.2
8.3
1-69
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.9
9.2
8.3
8.3
7.6
8.3
2-69
7.8
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.6
8.8
8.0
7.9
7.4
7.6
6.9
899.8
915.0
6.9
K + 5 A %
929*1------
8.3
6.5
7.8
7.7
7.2
7.3
6.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
7.4
7.3
6.8
6.8
6.3
6.1
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.2
7.1
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0
5,5
rrri
5.8
r v
6.3
_ 5.9
5.6
5.3
5.2
4.6
\
6.1
5.7
5.5
5 .2
5 .1
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.3
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.1
3.8
6.3
6.3
6.4
6#4
6 .4
6 .5
1-69
2-69
3-69
4-69
7.7
4-69
7.5
1-70
7.4
7.7
2-K
7.2
7.5
M
7.4
7.5
1.5
6.9
6 r8
6*4
3-7u
7.1
7.3
7t3
7.2
7.3
7 f3
6.7
6.6
6.2
*
i
o
6.1
6.6
3-69
6.8
7.0
? t0
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.4
6.2
5.8
1-71
7.2
7.4
7f4
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.0
6.9
6.6
2-71
7.2
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.0
6.9
6.7
6.6
4-66
1-6*
2-6*
3-67
4-67
1-68
2-6 8
3-68
4-68
1 3.1 1 8.1
XZ± J
7.9
7.9
\
! n ! T ! al
942.3
1—
1
1
\
1-70
955.6
^JO.O/o
«78.4
984.7
2.6
>
8.2
14.0
7.1
7.9
10.6
2-70
3-70
4-70
\
1.017.*
7.3 1
1.035.6
1-71
o'uAfefE«
"
PREPARED
BY F E D E R A L
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
LO U IS
FIW Ä I"SALES
C U M POU NO eO
IN CONSTANT 1 9 5 « DOLLARS AUGUST 2 0 * 1971
A NNU AL R A T E S OF CH A NG E____________________________________________________________________________
B ILLIO N » W
I N I T I A L QU A R TE R
OOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T ^ *
TERM INAL
QUAJtTkrA
0.2
1- 67
2.6
l-<»7
2-67
3 - 67
4-67
1- 68
2-68
3- 68
1- 69
4-69
2-69
3- 6 9
4-69
0
1
CM
4- 6 6
4-66
0
1
3- 66
3- 70
4-70
1- 71
649.5
*».o
657.5
2- 6 7
?• 8
5.6
6.1
3- 6 7
4.3
4.4
4.0
2.3
4-67
3. 1
3.8
4.4
2. 1
1—68
4.2
5.0
4.*
2- 68
4.1
4.8
4.7
3- 6 8
4. 2
4.8
4-68
4.0
4.5
667.3
w +44%
674.4
5.9
9.6
*•4
5. 2
6.7
3.8
4. 8
4.5
5. 2
6.2
4.5
5.2
4.4
4.1
4.6
5. 1
3.7
3.6
3. 7
690.0
1- 69
4. C
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.9
3.7
2-69
3.8
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.C
4.3
3.3
3- 6 9
3.4
3.7
3. 6
3. 3
3.5
3. 7
2.7
4-69
3.3
3.5
3. 4
3. 1
3.2
3.3
1- 70
3. j
3. 2
3.0
2.8
2.9
2. 9
2-70
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.6
3- 7C
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.3
4-70
2.2
2.4
2. 2
I
t
I
1
670.6
2.3
696.5
705.3
?.}
709.0
.
+ 0 5 %
3.0
3.*>
2.5
2.6
1. 4
2.5
1. 9
i.e
0.8
2,5
2.3
1. 7
1. 6 - 1 o« * 1 0 . 6
0.9
2, 1
1.9
1. 3
1. 2
0. 5
0.2
0.3
-0.4
2.6
1.9
1.6
1.1
C.9
0.4
0. 1
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
2. 4
2.4
1. 7
1.4
1.0
C.tt
0.3
o.l
0. 1
-0.2
-0.0
0.2
719.4
1. 9
1.9
1. 9
1. 2
0.9
0.5
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.6
-1.0
-1.2
-1.7
712.8
0.8
l.l
718.3
0.2
718.6
\
1- 71
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.3
2,3
1.8
\ •*
l.l
0.8
0.7
0.8
2- 71
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
1. 8
It*
1,4
1. 3
1. 0
1. 0
1. 1
3- 66
4-66
1- 67
?-67
3- 67
4-67
1- 6 8
2- 68
3- 6 8
4-68
1- 6 9
2-69
3- 69
INITIAL
ouartpr
715.8
> v
720.3
\
1 1. 1 1 1'.4
4-69
1-70
719.5
>
+ 1 .1 %
719.1
1. 5
2.2
8.3
\
1. 8
2.4
5.5
2.8
2-70
3-70
4-70
1- 71
.......... -
727.1
1
732.1
—
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 2 0 9 1971
11
FINAL
SALES
TOTAL SPENDING LESS CHANGES IN BU SI N ESS
RATIO
SCALE
TRILLIONS
QUARTERLY
OF
DOLLARS
TOTALS
AT
SEASONALLY
ANNUAL
INVENTORIES
RATIO
RATES
ADJUSTED
TRILLIONS
OF
SCALE
DOLLARS
2
1
1
.
.
1
1.0
0 .
0 .
0.8
0 .
0.7
0 .
0.6
0 .
0.5
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
SOURCE:
PER CENT A GES ARE ANNUAL R AT E S
LA TES T
DATA PLOTTED:
OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S
1969
U.S.
1970
DEPARTMENT
1971
OF COMMERCE
INDICATED.
2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.
LOUI S
12
CONSUMER PRICE tNDEX *
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of XHANfiE.
TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH___________________________________________________________________ L9£3_*_l Qfi ------MONTH
1-70
2-70 3- 70
4-70
7-70
8-70
9 - 7 0 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70
1-71
2- 71
3- 71
4- 71
5- 71
5-70
6.-71
7- 7 1.
6-70
2-70
6.5
3-70
6.5
6.5
4-70
6.9
7.0
5-70
6.5
6-70
6.5
7- 7 0
113. 9.
6.5
6.5
5.3
6.4
5.9
6.4
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.3
5.3
5.5
•
IT
5. 1
4.5
4.2
3.1
5.6
5.5
50
4.9
4.7
4.2
10- 70
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.1
5.1
11 - 70
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.9
1 2- 70
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.1
5.1
1- 71
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
2- 71
5. 0
4.8
4.7
4.4
. 6 - 7 1 . .__
7- 71
_
8- 71
_.
4.7
4.9
6.3
4.6
4.7
5.6
__ 5 . 2
4.
4.9
5.0
5.8
5.6
5.
6.
4.6
4.3
4.3
4.8
4.4
3, .8
3. ft
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.3
3.9
3,,3
3.
11
?\ + 4 .3 %
119. 2
1.0
1
1.5
2.0
110. 4
1 19.P,
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.0
3, ,5
3i 3
2.4
3. 1
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.0
3«.ft
3, 5
2.8
3.4
4. 1
4. 1
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.2
4«i**
3.
5a
1*0
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.6
4..3
4. 4
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.4
4.2
4*3.—
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.3
4^5
4.4
4.,2
2- 7 0
3-70
4-70
5-70
0
4.4
4.3
1
f*
4.6
4.6
8- 70
120. ?
3-5
4. 1
4 . ft
5. 1
6.?
4. 1
4-7
5 .4
5.«
6 .7
4.2
3 .9
4.4
4 .9
5 .1
5 .4
5 .1
3 .0
4. 2
3 .9
4.4
4.7
4 .9
5. 1
4 .7
*.5
9 - 7 0 10—70 1 1 - 7 0 12- 7C
1- 71
2- 71
3- 7 1
5- 71
6-71
9
1
______ 119. 1...... ...
4.8
6- 70
ft-
______ 118. 5
4.7
4- 71
7 .2
1 2 1 .5
1 71 - f l
122
\
4.01
.?
7-71
I N I T I A L MONTH
* _ _ NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED____________________________________________________________
PREPARFO
WHOLESALE PRICES r n M P r w iM r > P n
8Y FEDERAL
RFSEPVF
BANK
OF
ST.
LOUIS
INDUSTRI AL COMMODITIES *
a m m iia i
b a t f
^
of
r.HAMfiP-----------------
I N I T I A L MONTH
TERMINAL
1 -7 0
7 - 7 rs
*-7 0
4 -7 0
«Í-7 Q
A -7 ft
7 -7 (1
f l - 7 0 ____Q - 7 r t
1 0 -7 0
1 1 -7 0
1 9 - 7 0 ____ L = 2 J -------2 = i l ------ 2L=ZJ—
4=2J—
5 e 3 J ------ 6 = 2 1 —
7 r I.L .,
io a ,7
? -7 0
10 8 . 9
-£ = 2 £ L .
J X jJ L .
■¿a.4
UMU3L
4.5
IN IT IA L MONTH
_±— NOT SEASONALLY- A D J U S T E D .
_
...
11 7 . 5
6 .3 ^ ^
4.9
1- 7 0
7_
11 6..°
4.2
4.8
.......5- 71. .
J L L 5 ji
...
116. 7
8- 7 0
4- 71
.
._
rv
9- 70
_ ...3 - J 1
_
115. 2
7.6
6 *5
_
.
114. 5
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
_£JEJ»TFMRFR
1971
13
RATIO
PR I C E S
SCALE
RATIO
SCALE
1967-100
130
1967-100
1 30
I
JA*. ‘6J
11
*
jw .rsr
\
Mif i. 'S S
*
AOS. W
*
jùm 'ro
125
1 25
+4.
3 A0 l l . 1
120
CONSUL ER
1 15
120
1 15
*6 1Z
1 10
1 10
*•4. 6X
105
/
oo
95
105
S '
100
+2 . 9 X ^
- +• /ir
95
JF
1 20
1 15
1 1 0
105
100
95
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
SOURCE:
P ER CENTA GES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S
L A T E S T DATA PLOTTED:
1970
U.S.DEPARTMENT
1971
OF LABOR
INDICATED.
AUGUST
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.
LOUI S
90
14
WHOLESALE PRICES« ALL COMMODITIES *
r.flMPfUmDFO AMfmiAl RATES OF CHAMfiF___
MONTH
1047 «
IMITI AL MOUTH
T E R MI N AL
i,Tft
-2&I0-
*-7n
4.7ft
x -in
ft
M
a .™
T-7rt
«wmi i/wtft i i v M
i*.to
i-t i
> .t i
^ fi
i J i — SsZf— t e ll— Zs2JL
1Q « « 1
Ì 4 Ì ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ................. .... - — -------------------------
„ LQ fr.3 .
-3 * 3 ____2 * 2 -
-à sIQ ,,
- 2*2____ L*l _
J U L .
-5=-7..0—
- 2*2--------U i .
.1 + 1
&.?n
9
1
9
&
1
1
io*»a .
11 ft. i
-2*2-
.
«
9
«
fH?n
9
9
1111*3.
9
1
110*5—
1
•
0.70
9 .»
9.. n
9.. ft
9.. A
9
«
9._ A
A .«
ft . A
1-
i
a
1 .. ft
1 A
1
i.
1
e
i .9
A
A
1. «
—ft .ft
.1 . t
1
0
•%. a
9 Q
» .9
1
9
9
4
ft
A. 9
9.0
4i °
7 ,i ft
\A ., \
9 .O
9 |a
^
4 i*
1 i fl
7 ,4
.ft
9 a
9
4
4 1?
1 i
n
«1 , ^
\
Ai4
«J , 3
fti ?
V
1 ,.ft
1 PI
1_T
t
a
? 1°
7f
9
a
* !
f —71
9
t
Tt i( ft
Iftft
9
9
9 ( 1
5
2
%
a
t
9
9
9
n
? j9
9 A
9
«
9
K
9
1
A
* 4 1n
1
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1 1 L *Q .._
-------- 1 1 J U 9
--------U 2 * 8 —
1 11
?, , 1
--------1 X 3 * 0 —
,7
i?
A,
_____ 1 1 3 * 3 ------
.
-
,
ft—71
f
n
J i! |
7
4
9
K
■*
A| |
4 j rt
▲ , it
If , 3
A in
5, , ^
A.iO
4. ,7
« t*
* r * - ..........
7_ 7 1
9 r9
a (^
9 .9
9 IA
*
«;
9
A
9.9
*■ 1 !
* r°
A.9
5, fj
if . ft
« ., 1
3, i 9
4., \
A. 7
A ->
a —-» i
9
9
» . 1
9
a
U
1
e
9
A.
9
i.n
9
A. 9
L.. n
ft.
4.. A
V .A
4.. 1
1- 7 0
?-70
1- 71
2- 7 1
3-71
9
3-70
4-7«
5-70
6-70
9
7-70
8-70
Q
9 - 7 0 10 - 70 11 - 70 12 - 7 0
TN ITTA L
.
4- 71
-
-
ii3 *a —
.. - I I A * 3 -------
-
_____ L L f c * 6 -------
».O
“I - ?
5-71
6-71
_ ...... 1 1 4 * 9 ---------
7-Tl
MONTH
_*— tOQ.T- SE ASIN-ALI * ..AO JUS TP 0
PRFPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST» LOUIS
C C P T P M ft C P
%.
1071
W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S - FARM P « O m » C . T S t ANO P R O C E S S E D F OO DS ANO F E E D S *
------------------------------------------- CflMPaUMOffO AMftUAAI. R A T F S OF C H A N f if -----------------------------------------------------
..ESAMINAI
- U l f l — 2 * Jfl— IsJLQ—
-
2.1.7-Q-.
A» *
—
-JbOfì-
-1- 1
?
- s . ft
-ft,.7
-A t9
,q
-4,.?
- f i T •?
s,^
7« 7ii ... .... \ r fl
1,?
1 ,. 9
*»-A
1 ? , *5
•fl
• “Kx.A
- l rA
0 ,. 0
*7 - 7 0 i ,q
1*7
3,. *1
,1
irV, -0
.9,7
*1 , g
n±.
ft
Ci
IS
II
Oj
i
- .....i n - 7-0
. 1,
| .0
1H-4
-4,, ?
, *i
111-2
1 ft i, ?
112-4
«Ai , a ■?1 19
1 1 ft. %
T 7 t,7
-Hi , 4
- 6 1rn
-7,0
- 2. 1
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•9 (, 7
^4 mr? ■- Ì*»?
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*- 71
- 0, a
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- .
III-?
12- 70
3- 71
M 4
.... - .... 4- 71
7 —7 |.
V,
■ -1, 9
*9
- o , .0
10 0 .0
•ft . —4i, 3
- Ai ■ft
,3
l ft O. 9
- 4 rA
1 A ■4
11 ft- T
«?!■n
9
-1 , 9
7
0, 7
0 ,t 7
I ,0
?,g
.4
0<i il
4,, A
?,1
i ,?
2A , 1
3ft , 4
r, , s
ft, A .... J ^
? ,4
*0
Oi.n
* ,4
1,A
, q .... «1 , 0.
1 s ,9
15 •ft
—ft .’n ..... l . ,
1 , § . _ 4_, \
1.V
2i , i
17
i
i ,l
1.r )
2. 1
2 ■fl
*5
1 <,0
V ,7
?
i,7
1 ,.a
4{Ti
3,, ^
*^
11,9
A,•4
1
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t?
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ft,
....
1 19.A
-? , 1
11 4 - 4
r 1
It"».*
7, A
11
A
9 7
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A t 5_
14 . 1
10 , 1
? ■5
4 t O.
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7, i o
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1j , s
in , ^
4 •R
7.»
1 1. A
li.J
A. 1
r.7
.... 1 T *i
i ,>4,
1 •J*-
9-9
? ,<3
*7
1 .,4
v ,7
7 .ft
7
_____ a- 7J _ .. .. 1- ?
i.1
1. 1
1. 0
?,. 4
.3
1. n
1.. i
. 1.a
u .. 7
1- T 0
?-7 r
3-70
4-70
*5-70
6 70
7-70
8-70
-F T1
?.n
0, 1
7 ,9
3 .0
ft^7_
7 .4
a.
1
i .A
Ì.A.
1 - 71
? - 71
3-71
9 - 70 10- 70 11- 70 l ? - 70
T N I T ! AL
—r— Max s g a s a m i *
i l 2 ..a
1 1 1- 7
H-7n
- ....... 1,-71-
......
,r *»■
_ - 0, i
___
1 . 1 7-fl 12-.7.0___ La 2J___ 2r J J ___ 3a i l ___ A&2J___ S a i l ___ t e t t ------2 = 2 1 .
-112*9...
• \ A, *i
R-7n
...
<àa2L___S * IA ___&a..lA...I r r l f l___ 0*2.Q___flm .Zfl.-lflr.lfl
- - .............. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
..? - 7 .
- .....«i - rn. ...
*—70
19A7 Jt. l QO.
. . I N I T I A L MONTH
■
114.«
1 -1
4- 71
5- 71
1l f t . 4
-4. 1
11 ft.ft
-4.1
-4.1
6-71
7- 7 1
114.A
MONTH
AnjusTfo
PRFPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
S£2X£MB£R 3 . 1971
15
GENERAL
RATIO
PRICE
INDEX*
SCALE
RATIO
1 95 8 - 1 0 0
SCALE
1958-100
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
*A S USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
1969
1970
1971
SOURCE* U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED 0Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF
ST. LO UIS
I MPL I CI T PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GRiTSTS” IWTTDNA1 PRODUCT
_________•_________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________________________________________________________________
TERMINAL________________________________________________
OUARTER
1-6B
2- 67
3-67
4-67
3- 66
4-66
1- 67
4- 66
3. 2
1- 67
3. 0
I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ 1958 «
2-68
4- 68
3- 68
1- 69
3- 69
2-69
4-69
1- 7 0
3-70
2- 7 0
4-70
100
1- 71
115. 4
2.8
116. 2
2- 67
2. 7
2.4
2. 1
\
116. 8
3- 67
3. 1
3.0
3. 1
4.2
118. 0
4—67
3. 4
3.5
3. 7
4.5
1- 68
3.4
3. 5
3. 6
4. 1
2- 68
3. 5
3.6
3. 7
3- 68
3. 6
3.7
3. 8
4- 6 8
3.7
3. 8
3. 9
1- 69
3. 8
3.8
4. 0
2- 69
3. 9
4.0
4. 1
3- 69
4. 1
4.2
4. 3
r
119. 4
1 20. 4
4. I
3. 4
4. 1
4. 1
3. 7
4.0
4.2
4.2
3. 9
4.2
4. 3 Ì
4.2
4. 2
4.1
4. 3
4.5
4 .6
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.4
,.2 '
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
*5. 5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4. 8
5.0
5. 1
5.3
5. 8
6.1
129. 2
4.6
4.8
4.9
5. 0
5.1
5.5
5.4
130. 7
12 1. 6
x
_
11
4 -A
122. 9
QO/
124. 3
X
125. 6
r s
)
1
127. 3
+5
1 J . U8%
/O r
^
4- 6 9
4.2
4. 2
4.4
4.6
4.6
1- 70
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.8
4. 8
5. 0
5.2
5. 3
5.4
5. 7
5.8
5.7
6.6
2- 7 0
4.3
4. 4
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.8
5. 0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5. 5
5 .5
5.3
5.6
132. 8
1
1
4.6
.
134. 3
+5 1%
3- 70
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
4. 8
5. 0
5. 1
5.2
5.3
5. 4
5. 4
5.3
5.4
4.9
5. 2
4- 7 0
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.9
5. 0
5. 0
5. 1
5.2
5. 3
5.4
5. 6
5. 6
5.5
5.7
5.4
5. 7
6.3
X
1-71
4.6
4.6
4. 7
4.9
5. 0
5.0
5. 1
5.2
5. 3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.6
5.3
5. 6
5. 8
5.3
X
2- 71
4.5
4.6
4. 7
4.9
4.9
4.9
5. 0
5. 1
5. 2
5 .3
5. 4
5.4
5.2
5. 3
5. 1
5.2
5.2
4.7
4.1
3- 66
4- 66
1- 67
2- 67
3- 67
4-67
1- 68
2-68
3- 68
4-68
1- 6 9
2-69
3-69
4-69
1- 70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1- 71
136. 0
136. 1
139. 9
1
141. 3
I N I T I A L QUARTER
7KEFXffED~B?.FEDERAL I E S E K V T S A W ÖF"5T. LOUIS
AUGUST 19» 1971
INVENTORIES
COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING
«RATIOS
BASED
ON S E A S O N A L L Y
ADJUSTED
AND
TRADE
DATA.
S OU RC E t
U . S . DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
S H A D E D A R E A S R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S
AS D E F I N E D BY THE N A T I O N A L BURE AU OF E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H .
LATEST
DATA
♦ D A T A R E V I S E D
PLOTTED:
JULY
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED
BY F E D E R A L
RESERVE
BANK
OF S T .
LOUIS
@FedFRASER