Full text of National Economic Trends : October 2002
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October 2002 NationalEconomicTrends —Drew B. Winters Inventory ($US millions) Commercial Paper ($US millions) 1,250,000 400,000 350,000 1,200,000 300,000 1,150,000 250,000 200,000 1,100,000 150,000 1,050,000 100,000 1,000,000 50,000 0 2 02 l-0 Ju 1 nJa 01 l-0 Ju 0 l-0 nJa 00 Total Business Inventory Ju 9 l-9 nJa 99 n- Ju 8 Ja -9 Ju l 98 950,000 n- The nightly financial market news wrap-up tells investors where major stock market indices and benchmark government bonds stand. The financial news, however, rarely touches on private-issue money markets— the commercial paper market in particular—despite the important role they play in the healthy functioning of the economy. Commercial paper is unsecured short-term corporate debt, and I make a couple of points here about the commercial paper market to highlight its importance. First, I examine the relative contribution of commercial paper outstanding to the total market value of firms, which includes the values of their debt and equity. At the end of 2000, the total equity value of domestic companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange was $11.5 trillion with corresponding equity values for NASDAQ, Tokyo, and London of $3.6 trillion, $3.2 trillion, and $2.6 trillion, respectively. At the same time, there was $1.615 trillion of commercial paper outstanding. During 2000, the New York Stock Exchange experienced record trading volume with an average of $43.9 billion per day. By comparison, using the historical weighted average of time to maturity for the commercial paper market (about 42 days), the average daily turnover in commercial paper is $38.5 billion. So, using size and volume, we see the contribution of the commercial paper market to the value of firms and the transfer of that value. Second, size alone does not convey how important the commercial paper market is to business activity. Commercial paper—with common terms to maturity of 7, 15, 30, 60, and 90 days—is a vital source of funding for day-to-day business operations. The purpose of this short-term corporate debt is to fund working capital (accounts receivable and inventory) so that businesses can provide the goods and services desired by consumers. One example of the link between business activity and the commercial paper market is the relationship between non-financial commercial paper outstanding and total business inventory. From January 1998 through January 2001 there was a roughly $150 billion increase in inventories accompanied by a roughly $150 billion increase in non-financial commercial paper outstanding; from January 2001 through June 2002 there was a decrease in inventory of about $100 billion and a similar decrease in commercial paper outstanding. The correlation in monthly changes in inventory and outstanding commercial paper is 0.49, which suggests a strong positive relationship between inventory and outstanding commercial paper. This relationship exists because the commercial paper market provides important funds that allow businesses to manage inventories and to adjust to unanticipated changes in inventories. The flexibility provided by the commercial paper market allows businesses to react adeptly to economic trends, which enhances their cash flows and, ultimately, their profitability. Ja Commercial Paper: A Colossal Market Non-Financial Commercial Paper Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org TableofContents Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: 100 × [ ( xx ) t t –1 4 –1 ] For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. Subscription forms may also be completed online at www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html. For more information on data in this publication, please visit www.stls.frb.org/fred or call (314) 444-8573. The entire publication is also available on the Internet at www.stls.frb.org/publications/net. NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 10 0.8 8 0.6 6 0.4 4 0.2 2 0.0 0 -0.2 -2 -0.4 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14245 1999 14610 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2.4 8 1.8 7 1.2 6 0.6 5 0.0 4 -0.6 3 -1.2 2 -1.8 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 10-Year Treasury 3-Month Treasury 1 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14245 1999 14610 2000 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 700 6.5 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 600 500 6.0 400 300 5.5 200 100 5.0 0 -100 4.5 -200 -300 4.0 -400 -500 3.5 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14245 1999 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Index Percent change from year ago 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 -12 34 -18 26 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 7 7 7 Private 8 8 8Nonfarm 8 8 8 8 8 Aggregate Hours 7 8 9 0 1 2 Percent change from year ago 3 4 5 6 88 8 8 7 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 0 3 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 7 Advance Preliminary Final Annual Revision 6 8 5 GDP (bar) 6 4 Final Sales 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 14610 2000 14976 2001 2002 15341 Index 1.2 Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) 0.6 0.0 -0.6 ISM (right scale) -1.2 -1.8 14610 2000 14976 2001 2002 15341 2001:3 2001:4 2002:1 2002:2 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 2001:2 15706 Compounded annual rates of change 62 10 56 8 50 6 44 4 38 2 32 0 14610 15706 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 34.75 0.75 0.50 34.50 0.25 0.00 34.25 -0.25 -0.50 34.00 -0.75 -1.00 33.75 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Real Change in Private Inventories 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 1996 dollars Manufacturing and trade 120 1.46 90 1.44 60 30 1.42 0 1.40 -30 -60 1.38 -90 1.36 -120 -150 1.34 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 00Q3 00Q4 01Q1 01Q2 01Q3 01Q4 02Q1 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 02Q2 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2000 2001 2002 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 1.69 1.23 2.67 -0.45 -0.20 4.13 2.44 -0.06 -1.12 -0.14 -3.27 -1.14 -0.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 Consumption 2.54 1.37 1.53 0.92 0.97 4.05 2.22 1.22 Fixed Investment 0.04 -0.41 -0.38 -1.95 -0.72 -1.49 -0.07 -0.15 0.46 -0.41 -0.71 -1.93 -0.73 -1.33 -0.66 -0.27 Residential -0.42 0.00 0.34 -0.02 0.02 -0.16 0.60 0.12 Government -0.18 0.51 0.99 1.00 -0.21 1.85 1.04 0.27 Federal -0.45 0.12 0.54 0.36 0.07 0.80 0.47 0.47 0.28 0.39 0.45 0.64 -0.28 1.05 0.56 -0.21 Net Exports -0.72 -0.23 0.53 -0.42 -0.24 -0.28 -0.75 -1.40 Exports 1.25 -0.46 -0.69 -1.42 -1.94 -0.99 0.33 1.29 Imports -1.97 0.23 1.22 1.00 1.70 0.70 -1.08 -2.69 Residual 0.13 0.06 0.45 0.50 0.07 0.42 -0.05 0.27 Real GDP Growth 0.57 1.09 -0.60 -1.59 -0.29 2.74 5.04 1.25 Final Sales Change in Inventory Nonresidential State and Local Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 6.0 Sep 2001 4.5 3.0 Sep 2002 1.5 3m 1y . Week Ending: 09/27/2002 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 6 Excl. Food and Energy 3 All Items 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Excl. Food and Energy 5 0 PPI -5 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 5 Dollars per million btu 36 32 4 Gross Domestic Purchases 3 14 Oil Futures (left scale) Spot Oil (left scale) 12 28 GDP (bar) 10 24 8 2 Gas Futures (right scale) 20 1 6 16 0 12 -1 8 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 4 Spot Gas (right scale) 2 0 1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000 2001 Note: Futures prices as of 09/30/2002 2001 2002 2002 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 15 8 Excl. Food & Energy 6 2003 2003 2004 Excl. Food & Energy 10 4 2 5 0 0 PCE (bar) -2 -5 CPI (bar) -4 -6 -10 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 14610 2000 14976 2001 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 15.0 15341 2002 15706 25 Excl.Food & Energy 7.5 20 15 0 0.0 Nonfarm 10 5 -7.5 0 PPI (bar) -15.0 -5 -22.5 Manufacturing (bar) -10 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 14610 2000 14976 2001 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 8 20 6 15 15341 2002 15706 Wages and Salaries 4 10 Compensation 2 5 Benefits 0 0 13515 1997 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 12 67 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 4.50 16 3.75 14 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 3.00 12 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 700 100 600 500 50 400 300 0 200 100 -50 0 -100 -100 -200 -300 -150 -400 -500 -200 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 Change in Household Employment 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 2.5 1300 975 2.0 90% Confidence 650 325 0 Labor Force 1.5 Pop. 1.0 -325 0.5 -650 0.0 -975 -0.5 -1300 -1625 -1.0 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 Available Labor Supply and Components 1997 13515 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Index Percent of labor force Percent 11 8.0 95 7.5 90 7.0 85 10 6.5 Available Labor Supply Help-Wanted (right scale) 6.0 8 90% Confidence 9 Index 5.5 7 5.0 6 4.5 Unemployed 5 Want to Work 2 1997 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 65 50 3.0 45 2.5 40 2.0 13515 70 55 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3.5 3 75 60 4.0 4 80 35 1997 13515 1998 13880 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1999 14245 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 7 7and 7 Food 8 8 Services 8 8 8 Sales 8 8 Retail 87 8 7 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 88 8 8 89 90 8 9 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 01 0 0 0 1 02 0 2 0 3 16 12 8 4 0 -4 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 *Data before January 1992 are not strictly comparable (see End Notes). 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 15 14 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 95 96 97 98 99 00 10 01 02 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 3.2 6 2.4 1.6 4 0.8 0.0 -0.8 2 -1.6 -2.4 -3.2 0 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 Real Consumption 13515 1997 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 8 3.2 2.4 6 1.6 0.8 4 0.0 -0.8 2 -1.6 0 -2.4 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 8 6 Total (bar) 4 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 18 23 15 22 12 21 9 20 Durables (bar) (left scale) 6 2 0 18 0 17 -3 Ex. Autos -2 19 3 16 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -6 -4 15 -9 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 14 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 120 50 2002 15706 40 110 30 20 100 10 0 90 -10 80 -20 13515 1997 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 5 Nonresidential 0 -5 -10 -15 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 24 10 Overall Saving (left scale) 22 8 20 6 18 4 16 2 Private Saving (left scale) 14 0 12 -2 NFI (right scale) 10 -4 8 -6 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 20 30 15 20 10 02 02 03 Equipment & Software Investment 10 5 0 0 Orders -10 -5 -20 -10 -15 -30 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 13515 1997 13880 1998 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 2002 15706 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 20 2.0 15706 Millions, annual rate 1.04 New Home Sales (right scale) 15 1.9 10 1.8 0.96 5 1.7 0.92 0 1.6 0.88 -5 1.5 -10 0.84 Housing Starts (left scale) 1.4 -15 1.00 0.80 1.3 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 14610 0.76 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1996 dollars Percent of GDP 35 1800 Total Outlays 1600 Total 30 1400 1200 Total Receipts State & Local 1000 25 Fed. Outlays 800 20 600 Federal 400 Fed. Receipts 200 15 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts 1072.3 Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1287.6 -215.3 1055.0 1324.4 -269.4 1991 716.0 723.8 -7.8 1992 772.2 777.2 -5.0 1121.3 1418.9 -297.6 1091.3 1381.7 -290.4 1993 823.2 821.7 1.5 1197.3 1471.5 -274.2 1154.4 1409.5 -255.1 1994 873.8 865.2 8.6 1293.7 1506.0 -212.3 1258.6 1461.9 -203.3 1995 917.9 902.5 15.4 1383.7 1575.7 -192.0 1351.8 1515.8 -164.0 1996 960.4 939.0 21.4 1499.1 1635.9 -136.8 1453.1 1560.6 -107.5 1997 1011.3 980.3 31.0 1625.5 1678.8 -53.3 1579.3 1601.3 -22.0 1998 1074.4 1033.7 40.7 1749.7 1705.9 43.8 1721.8 1652.6 69.2 1999 1144.1 1105.8 38.3 1867.2 1755.3 111.9 1827.5 1701.9 125.5 2000 1214.2 1196.2 18.0 2033.9 1827.1 206.8 2025.2 1788.8 236.4 2001 1261.3 1292.6 -31.3 2008.4 1936.4 72.0 1991.0 1863.9 127.1 1999Q3 1151.4 1117.6 33.8 1876.3 1758.9 117.4 448.7 418.6 30.1 1999Q4 1179.1 1139.5 39.6 1922.4 1793.6 128.8 443.6 463.9 -20.3 2000Q1 1195.9 1163.2 32.7 2009.6 1786.4 223.2 433.7 448.7 -15.0 2000Q2 1204.7 1184.5 20.2 2022.9 1825.7 197.2 656.0 444.3 211.8 2000Q3 1225.4 1206.2 19.2 2049.1 1835.9 213.2 491.7 431.3 60.4 2000Q4 1230.8 1231.0 -0.2 2054.1 1860.3 193.8 462.0 464.3 -2.3 2001Q1 1247.3 1263.8 -16.5 2072.9 1899.1 173.8 459.8 482.2 -22.5 2001Q2 1261.1 1293.4 -32.3 2072.3 1927.8 144.5 660.3 466.5 193.7 2001Q3 1253.6 1299.8 -46.2 1896.0 1947.7 -51.7 409.0 450.9 -41.9 2001Q4 1283.2 1313.3 -30.1 1992.3 1971.0 21.3 466.3 501.7 -35.4 2002Q1 1273.3 1329.1 -55.8 1884.7 2030.5 -145.8 412.6 509.2 -96.6 2002Q2 1302.5 1347.6 -45.1 1889.0 2079.3 -190.3 522.6 506.9 15.6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 04 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 20 -8 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Change in Federal Debt 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 8 750 6 500 4 Total Excl. interest payments 250 2 0 0 Held by Public Total -250 -2 -4 -500 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Total 1999 5656.3 1989.1 3667.2 489.0 3175.4 1281.4 2000 5674.2 2235.7 3438.5 511.4 2936.2 1057.9 2001 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1004.3 March 5651.6 1857.1 3794.6 465.7 3327.5 1272.3 June 5638.8 1953.6 3685.2 484.9 3199.2 1258.8 September 5656.3 1989.1 3667.2 489.0 3175.4 1281.4 December 5776.1 2060.6 3715.5 478.0 3233.9 1268.7 March 5773.4 2085.4 3688.0 501.7 3182.8 1106.9 June 5685.9 2190.2 3495.7 505.0 2987.4 1082.0 September 5674.2 2235.7 3438.5 511.4 2936.2 1057.9 December 5662.2 2248.7 3527.4 511.7 2880.4 1034.2 March 5773.7 2339.4 3434.4 523.9 2892.9 1029.9 June 5726.8 2452.6 3274.2 535.1 2722.6 1000.5 September 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1004.3 December 5943.4 2549.7 3393.8 551.7 2819.5 1053.1 March 6006.0 2562.4 3443.7 575.4 2849.5 1047.5 June 6126.5 2662.9 3463.5 590.7 2819.8 1072.4 1999 2000 2001 2002 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 98 00 02 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 20 2 Investment Income (left scale) 10 1 0 0 Current Account (right scale) -10 -20 -1 -2 -30 -3 -40 -4 -50 -5 -60 -6 -70 -7 -80 -8 Goods and Services (left scale) -90 -9 -100 -10 -110 -11 -120 -12 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 Exchange Rates 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) 100 150 Yen (right scale) 80 Euro (right scale) Ecu (right scale) 75 60 0 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 Goods Export Shares, 2001 UK 5.66% All Other 23.12% 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 03 Goods Import Shares, 2001 Mexico 14.09% UK 3.61% Mexico 11.46% China 8.93% China 2.67% Japan 7.99% Japan 11.04% All Other 24.65% Germany 4.17% Germany 5.16% France 2.76% France 2.65% Other OECD 16.78% 02 02 Canada 22.74% Other OECD 13.64% Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Canada 18.87% NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 30 -5 25 -10 20 Imports 15 -15 10 Goods and Services -20 Exports 5 -25 0 -30 -5 -35 -10 -40 -15 Goods -45 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 -20 2002 15706 14610 2000 14976 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 2001 2002 15341 40 0 -20 15.0 Imports (left scale) 20 -40 15706 7.5 0 0.0 -60 -20 -40 -100 -7.5 Exports (right scale) -80 -15.0 -60 -120 -140 -22.5 -80 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 -30.0 14610 2000 14976 2001 2002 15341 15706 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 00 2000 01 Canada 2001 02 2002 03 02 2002 03 02 2002 03 France 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 00 2000 01 2001 Mexico Japan 18 45 12 30 6 15 0 0 -6 -15 -12 -30 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 00 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 01 2001 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfarm Business Sector 3 0 Nonfinancial Corporations -3 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 12 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 15706 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 15 77 Corporate Profits (left scale) 13 75 11 73 Compensation (right scale) 9 71 Proprietors’ Income (left scale) 7 69 5 67 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 80 60 40 20 All 0 -20 Nonfinancial -40 -60 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 NationalEconomicTrends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 10/01/02 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 1996 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 1998. 8781.5 . 5.6 8508.933 . 4.3 8431.826 . 4.2 . 76.727 1999. 9274.3 . 5.6 8858.963 . 4.1 8793.899 . 4.3 . 62.755 2000. 9824.6 . 5.9 9191.413 . 3.8 9121.104 . 3.7 . 64.976 2001. 10082.2 . 2.6 9214.540 . 0.3 9258.399 . 1.5 . -61.357 1999 1 9092.7 4.9 5.4 8733.171 3.0 4.0 8654.269 3.1 4.4 80.016 68.445 . 2 9171.7 3.5 5.5 8775.518 2.0 3.9 8740.974 4.1 4.1 31.181 65.746 . 3 9316.5 6.5 5.7 8886.934 5.2 4.2 8833.593 4.3 4.5 47.626 59.706 . 4 9516.4 8.9 5.9 9040.072 7.1 4.3 8946.605 5.2 4.2 92.198 62.755 2000 1 9649.5 5.7 6.1 9097.421 2.6 4.2 9042.883 4.4 4.5 45.335 54.085 . 2 9820.7 7.3 7.1 9205.711 4.8 4.9 9111.141 3.1 4.2 91.496 69.164 . 3 9874.8 2.2 6.0 9218.681 0.6 3.7 9150.447 1.7 3.6 63.136 73.041 . 4 9953.6 3.2 4.6 9243.840 1.1 2.3 9179.789 1.3 2.6 59.938 64.976 2001 1 10028.1 3.0 3.9 9229.932 -0.6 1.5 9243.767 2.8 2.2 -26.918 46.913 . 2 10049.9 0.9 2.3 9193.054 -1.6 -0.1 9234.349 -0.4 1.4 -58.297 9.465 . 3 10097.7 1.9 2.3 9186.413 -0.3 -0.4 9230.535 -0.2 0.9 -61.772 -21.762 . 4 10152.9 2.2 2.0 9248.762 2.7 0.1 9324.945 4.2 1.6 -98.441 -61.357 2002 1 10313.1 6.5 2.8 9363.225 5.0 1.4 9379.350 2.4 1.5 -28.937 -61.862 . 2 10376.9 2.5 3.3 9392.446 1.3 2.2 9377.871 -0.1 1.6 4.931 -46.055 Consumption Billions of 1996 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1998. 5683.734 . 4.8 726.658 . 10.5 1479.986 . 11.4 1135.921 . 12.5 1999. 5964.464 . 4.9 812.539 . 11.8 1595.205 . 7.8 1228.392 . 8.1 2000. 6223.930 . 4.4 878.945 . 8.2 1691.893 . 6.1 1324.199 . 7.8 2001. 6377.231 . 2.5 931.888 . 6.0 1627.414 . -3.8 1255.132 . -5.2 1999 1 5851.439 4.7 4.9 777.640 5.5 12.3 1560.473 7.7 9.0 1197.451 7.7 8.9 . 2 5932.777 5.7 4.8 804.185 14.4 11.7 1587.565 7.1 7.9 1220.423 7.9 7.8 . 3 6000.079 4.6 5.0 824.116 10.3 13.3 1610.569 5.9 8.4 1243.250 7.7 9.4 . 4 6073.613 5.0 5.0 844.213 10.1 10.0 1622.199 2.9 5.9 1252.433 3.0 6.6 2000 1 6151.862 5.3 5.1 879.506 17.8 13.1 1673.617 13.3 7.3 1297.108 15.0 8.3 . 2 6198.213 3.0 4.5 871.338 -3.7 8.4 1700.940 6.7 7.1 1329.083 10.2 8.9 . 3 6256.821 3.8 4.3 888.464 8.1 7.8 1701.667 0.2 5.7 1340.677 3.5 7.8 . 4 6288.822 2.1 3.5 876.479 -5.3 3.8 1691.347 -2.4 4.3 1329.929 -3.2 6.2 2001 1 6326.008 2.4 2.8 900.596 11.5 2.4 1682.070 -2.2 0.5 1311.445 -5.4 1.1 . 2 6348.006 1.4 2.4 912.358 5.3 4.7 1633.538 -11.1 -4.0 1260.978 -14.5 -5.1 . 3 6370.946 1.5 1.8 922.616 4.6 3.8 1615.663 -4.3 -5.1 1241.712 -6.0 -7.4 . 4 6463.964 6.0 2.8 991.988 33.6 13.2 1578.384 -8.9 -6.7 1206.409 -10.9 -9.3 2002 1 6513.825 3.1 3.0 975.898 -6.3 8.4 1576.408 -0.5 -6.3 1188.412 -5.8 -9.4 . 2 6542.422 1.8 3.1 980.664 2.0 7.5 1572.624 -1.0 -3.7 1181.099 -2.4 -6.3 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 10/01/02 Employment Cost Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1998. 103.200 . 1.2 138.0 . 3.5 135.6 . 4.0 143.6 . 2.4 1999. 104.690 . 1.4 142.4 . 3.2 140.3 . 3.4 147.6 . 2.8 2000. 106.890 . 2.1 149.0 . 4.6 146.0 . 4.1 156.0 . 5.7 2001. 109.420 . 2.4 155.0 . 4.1 151.4 . 3.7 163.7 . 4.9 1999 1 104.120 1.8 1.3 140.2 1.1 3.0 138.1 1.8 3.3 145.2 0.0 2.2 . 2 104.520 1.5 1.5 141.8 4.6 3.3 139.7 4.7 3.6 146.7 4.2 2.5 . 3 104.840 1.2 1.4 143.1 3.7 3.2 140.9 3.5 3.2 148.2 4.2 2.8 . 4 105.280 1.7 1.6 144.6 4.3 3.4 142.3 4.0 3.5 150.2 5.5 3.4 2000 1 106.080 3.1 1.9 146.6 5.6 4.6 143.9 4.6 4.2 153.1 7.9 5.4 . 2 106.690 2.3 2.1 148.3 4.7 4.6 145.4 4.2 4.1 155.1 5.3 5.7 . 3 107.130 1.7 2.2 149.8 4.1 4.7 146.7 3.6 4.1 157.0 5.0 5.9 . 4 107.680 2.1 2.3 151.1 3.5 4.5 147.9 3.3 3.9 158.8 4.7 5.7 2001 1 108.660 3.7 2.4 152.8 4.6 4.2 149.4 4.1 3.8 160.8 5.1 5.0 . 2 109.320 2.5 2.5 154.3 4.0 4.0 150.9 4.1 3.8 162.5 4.3 4.8 . 3 109.920 2.2 2.6 155.7 3.7 3.9 152.0 2.9 3.6 164.7 5.5 4.9 . 4 109.780 -0.5 2.0 157.3 4.2 4.1 153.4 3.7 3.7 166.8 5.2 5.0 2002 1 110.140 1.3 1.4 158.7 3.6 3.9 154.8 3.7 3.6 168.6 4.4 4.9 . 2 110.480 1.2 1.1 160.4 4.4 4.0 156.3 3.9 3.6 170.9 5.6 5.2 Exports Billions of 1996 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1996 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1998. 1002.420 . 2.1 1223.500 . 11.8 110.3 . 2.6 119.1 . 5.3 1999. 1036.329 . 3.4 1356.816 . 10.9 112.9 . 2.4 124.3 . 4.4 2000. 1137.199 . 9.7 1535.958 . 13.2 116.2 . 2.9 133.0 . 7.0 2001. 1076.121 . -5.4 1492.010 . -2.9 117.5 . 1.1 136.6 . 2.7 1999 1 1007.490 -6.9 0.4 1290.659 8.4 9.0 112.1 2.5 2.3 123.2 7.1 5.4 . 2 1018.076 4.3 2.5 1337.698 15.4 10.0 111.9 -0.7 1.9 123.4 0.7 4.0 . 3 1044.100 10.6 5.7 1383.736 14.5 12.6 112.9 3.6 2.4 124.5 3.6 3.8 . 4 1075.631 12.6 4.9 1415.153 9.4 11.9 114.7 6.5 3.0 126.3 5.9 4.3 2000 1 1095.781 7.7 8.8 1464.619 14.7 13.5 114.7 0.0 2.3 130.8 15.0 6.2 . 2 1133.877 14.6 11.4 1528.465 18.6 14.3 116.4 6.1 4.0 131.5 2.2 6.6 . 3 1165.469 11.6 11.6 1578.615 13.8 14.1 116.6 0.7 3.3 134.3 8.8 7.9 . 4 1153.668 -4.0 7.3 1572.152 -1.6 11.1 117.1 1.7 2.1 135.3 3.0 7.1 2001 1 1135.809 -6.0 3.7 1540.311 -7.9 5.2 116.7 -1.4 1.7 136.3 3.0 4.2 . 2 1098.832 -12.4 -3.1 1513.594 -6.8 -1.0 116.6 -0.3 0.2 136.3 0.0 3.7 . 3 1048.017 -17.3 -10.1 1466.988 -11.8 -7.1 117.2 2.1 0.5 136.7 1.2 1.8 . 4 1021.827 -9.6 -11.4 1447.158 -5.3 -8.0 119.3 7.4 1.9 137.2 1.5 1.4 2002 1 1030.560 3.5 -9.3 1477.140 8.5 -4.1 121.8 8.6 4.4 138.4 3.5 1.5 . 2 1065.526 14.3 -3.0 1552.919 22.2 2.6 122.3 1.7 4.9 139.7 3.8 2.5 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago 10/01/02 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Index Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago 1997. 129572 2852 . 2.3 122671 3082 . 2.6 141.4 . . 3.5 1998. 131472 1900 . 1.5 125851 3180 . 2.6 145.2 . . 2.7 1999. 133503 2031 . 1.5 128904 3053 . 2.4 148.4 . . 2.2 2000. 135219 1716 . 1.3 131719 2814 . 2.2 151.3 . . 2.0 2001. 135043 -176 . -0.1 131925 207 . 0.2 150.2 . . -0.8 2000 1 134995 703 2.1 1.6 130995 882 2.7 2.5 150.9 0.6 2.5 2.7 . 2 135246 251 0.7 1.5 131819 824 2.5 2.6 151.3 0.3 1.1 2.3 . 3 134987 -259 -0.8 1.1 131876 57 0.2 2.1 151.5 0.1 0.4 1.9 . 4 135649 662 2.0 1.0 132185 309 0.9 1.6 151.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 2001 1 135804 155 0.5 0.6 132433 249 0.8 1.1 151.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 . 2 135221 -583 -1.7 -0.0 132193 -240 -0.7 0.3 150.9 -0.4 -1.7 -0.3 . 3 134839 -381 -1.1 -0.1 131943 -250 -0.8 0.1 150.0 -0.6 -2.4 -1.0 . 4 134308 -532 -1.6 -1.0 131130 -813 -2.4 -0.8 148.4 -1.0 -4.1 -2.1 2002 1 133894 -414 -1.2 -1.4 130759 -371 -1.1 -1.3 148.2 -0.1 -0.5 -2.2 . 2 134149 255 0.8 -0.8 130706 -53 -0.2 -1.1 148.3 0.0 0.2 -1.7 2000 Aug 135016 239 2.1 1.0 131777 -50 -0.5 2.0 151.3 -0.1 -0.8 1.7 135167 151 1.4 1.1 132023 246 2.3 2.0 151.7 0.3 3.2 2.0 . Sep . Oct 135485 318 2.9 1.1 132018 -5 -0.0 1.7 151.9 0.1 1.6 1.5 . Nov 135573 88 0.8 0.9 132217 199 1.8 1.6 151.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 . Dec 135888 315 2.8 1.0 132319 102 0.9 1.5 151.1 -0.5 -6.1 0.5 2001 Jan 135870 -18 -0.2 0.7 132382 63 0.6 1.3 152.0 0.6 7.4 0.9 . Feb 135734 -136 -1.2 0.5 132457 75 0.7 1.2 151.3 -0.5 -5.4 0.3 . Mar 135808 74 0.7 0.6 132461 4 0.0 0.8 151.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 . Apr 135424 -384 -3.3 -0.1 132243 -218 -2.0 0.5 151.0 -0.2 -2.4 -0.4 . May 135235 -189 -1.7 0.2 132229 -14 -0.1 0.3 151.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 . Jun 135003 -232 -2.0 -0.2 132108 -121 -1.1 0.1 150.6 -0.3 -3.1 -0.5 . Jul 135106 103 0.9 0.2 132045 -63 -0.6 0.2 150.4 -0.1 -1.6 -0.7 . Aug 134408 -698 -6.0 -0.5 131966 -79 -0.7 0.1 149.9 -0.3 -3.9 -0.9 . Sep 135004 596 5.5 -0.1 131819 -147 -1.3 -0.2 149.6 -0.2 -2.4 -1.4 . Oct 134615 -389 -3.4 -0.6 131414 -405 -3.6 -0.5 148.7 -0.6 -7.0 -2.1 . Nov 134253 -362 -3.2 -1.0 131087 -327 -2.9 -0.9 148.2 -0.3 -4.0 -2.4 . Dec 134055 -198 -1.8 -1.3 130890 -197 -1.8 -1.1 148.3 0.1 0.8 -1.9 2002 Jan 133468 -587 -5.1 -1.8 130871 -19 -0.2 -1.1 148.1 -0.1 -1.6 -2.6 . Feb 134319 851 7.9 -1.0 130706 -165 -1.5 -1.3 148.3 0.1 1.6 -2.0 . Mar 133894 -425 -3.7 -1.4 130701 -5 -0.0 -1.3 148.2 -0.1 -0.8 -2.0 . Apr 133976 82 0.7 -1.1 130680 -21 -0.2 -1.2 148.1 -0.1 -0.8 -1.9 . May 134417 441 4.0 -0.6 130702 22 0.2 -1.2 148.1 0.0 0.0 -1.9 . Jun 134053 -364 -3.2 -0.7 130736 34 0.3 -1.0 148.6 0.3 4.1 -1.3 . Jul 134045 -8 -0.1 -0.8 130803 67 0.6 -0.9 147.5 -0.7 -8.5 -1.9 . Aug 134474 429 3.9 0.0 130842 39 0.4 -0.9 147.9 0.3 3.3 -1.3 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 1997. 4.9 2769.532 . . 5.0 127.944 . . 6.9 5.06 6.35 1998. 4.5 2907.356 . . 5.0 134.504 . . 5.1 4.78 5.26 1999. 4.2 3151.004 . . 8.4 139.447 . . 3.7 4.64 5.64 2000. 4.0 3360.754 . . 6.7 145.732 . . 4.5 5.82 6.03 2001. 4.8 3487.441 . . 3.8 140.392 . . -3.7 3.39 5.02 2000 1 4.0 835.780 2.8 11.7 9.5 144.033 1.4 5.8 4.9 5.52 6.48 . 2 4.0 834.314 -0.2 -0.7 7.1 146.480 1.7 7.0 5.8 5.71 6.18 . 3 4.1 843.734 1.1 4.6 6.1 146.686 0.1 0.6 4.8 6.02 5.89 . 4 4.0 846.926 0.4 1.5 4.2 145.730 -0.7 -2.6 2.6 6.02 5.57 2001 1 4.2 859.776 1.5 6.2 2.9 143.457 -1.6 -6.1 -0.4 4.82 5.05 . 2 4.5 868.614 1.0 4.2 4.1 141.309 -1.5 -5.9 -3.5 3.66 5.27 . 3 4.8 866.013 -0.3 -1.2 2.6 139.606 -1.2 -4.7 -4.8 3.17 4.98 . 4 5.6 893.038 3.1 13.1 5.4 137.197 -1.7 -6.7 -5.9 1.91 4.77 2002 1 5.6 887.519 -0.6 -2.4 3.2 138.090 0.7 2.6 -3.7 1.72 5.08 . 2 5.9 896.843 1.1 4.3 3.2 139.496 1.0 4.1 -1.3 1.72 5.10 . 3 . . . . . . . . . 1.64 4.26 2000 Sep 4.0 283.665 1.3 17.4 6.4 146.826 0.1 1.0 4.7 6.00 5.80 Index 3-mo 10-yr Percent Percent . Oct 3.9 282.524 -0.4 -4.7 5.7 146.266 -0.4 -4.5 3.5 6.11 5.74 . Nov 4.0 281.316 -0.4 -5.0 4.0 145.789 -0.3 -3.8 2.7 6.17 5.72 . Dec 4.0 283.086 0.6 7.8 2.8 145.135 -0.4 -5.3 1.6 5.77 5.24 2001 Jan 4.2 286.878 1.3 17.3 4.4 143.934 -0.8 -9.5 0.5 5.15 5.16 . Feb 4.2 287.182 0.1 1.3 2.9 143.509 -0.3 -3.5 -0.4 4.88 5.10 . Mar 4.3 285.716 -0.5 -6.0 1.4 142.928 -0.4 -4.8 -1.3 4.42 4.89 . Apr 4.5 288.366 0.9 11.7 3.8 142.007 -0.6 -7.5 -2.5 3.87 5.14 . May 4.4 290.567 0.8 9.6 4.7 141.595 -0.3 -3.4 -3.4 3.62 5.39 . Jun 4.6 289.681 -0.3 -3.6 3.9 140.326 -0.9 -10.2 -4.7 3.49 5.28 . Jul 4.6 289.971 0.1 1.2 3.5 140.402 0.1 0.7 -4.2 3.51 5.24 . Aug 4.9 291.036 0.4 4.5 4.0 139.954 -0.3 -3.8 -4.6 3.36 4.97 . Sep 5.0 285.006 -2.1 -22.2 0.5 138.461 -1.1 -12.1 -5.7 2.64 4.73 . Oct 5.4 302.770 6.2 106.6 7.2 137.670 -0.6 -6.6 -5.9 2.16 4.57 . Nov 5.6 295.036 -2.6 -26.7 4.9 137.240 -0.3 -3.7 -5.9 1.87 4.65 . Dec 5.8 295.232 0.1 0.8 4.3 136.682 -0.4 -4.8 -5.8 1.69 5.09 2002 Jan 5.6 294.852 -0.1 -1.5 2.8 137.557 0.6 8.0 -4.4 1.65 5.04 . Feb 5.5 296.468 0.5 6.8 3.2 138.125 0.4 5.1 -3.8 1.73 4.91 . Mar 5.7 296.199 -0.1 -1.1 3.7 138.589 0.3 4.1 -3.0 1.79 5.28 . Apr 6.0 299.642 1.2 14.9 3.9 138.777 0.1 1.6 -2.3 1.72 5.21 . May 5.8 296.567 -1.0 -11.6 2.1 139.419 0.5 5.7 -1.5 1.73 5.16 . Jun 5.9 300.634 1.4 17.8 3.8 140.293 0.6 7.8 -0.0 1.70 4.93 . Jul 5.9 303.918 1.1 13.9 4.8 140.900 0.4 5.3 0.4 1.68 4.65 . Aug 5.7 306.208 0.8 9.4 5.2 140.542 -0.3 -3.0 0.4 1.62 4.26 . Sep . . . . . . . . . 1.63 3.87 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NationalEconomicTrends 10/01/02 Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Year to date Index Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 1997. 160.5 . . 2.3 . 169.5 . . 2.4 . 131.8 . . 0.4 1998. 163.0 . . 1.5 . 173.4 . . 2.3 . 130.7 . . -0.9 1999. 166.6 . . 2.2 . 177.0 . . 2.1 . 133.0 . . 1.8 2000. 172.2 . . 3.4 . 181.3 . . 2.4 . 138.0 . . 3.7 2001. 177.1 . . 2.8 . 186.1 . . 2.7 . 140.7 . . 2.0 2000 1 170.1 1.0 3.9 3.2 3.9 179.5 0.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 136.4 1.1 4.4 3.7 . 2 171.5 0.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 180.7 0.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 137.4 0.7 3.0 3.9 . 3 173.0 0.9 3.5 3.5 3.6 181.9 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 138.3 0.7 2.7 3.6 . 4 174.2 0.7 3.0 3.4 3.4 183.0 0.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 139.9 1.2 4.7 3.7 2001 1 175.9 1.0 3.9 3.4 3.9 184.4 0.7 3.0 2.7 3.0 141.8 1.4 5.5 4.0 . 2 177.3 0.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 185.5 0.6 2.4 2.6 2.7 142.1 0.2 0.8 3.4 . 3 177.6 0.2 0.8 2.7 2.6 186.7 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 140.6 -1.1 -4.2 1.6 . 4 177.5 -0.1 -0.3 1.9 1.9 187.9 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 138.4 -1.5 -5.9 -1.0 2002 1 178.1 0.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 189.0 0.6 2.3 2.5 2.3 138.4 -0.0 -0.1 -2.4 . 2 179.6 0.8 3.4 1.3 2.4 190.0 0.5 2.2 2.5 2.2 138.8 0.3 1.3 -2.3 2000 Aug 172.7 0.1 0.7 3.4 3.4 181.9 0.3 3.4 2.7 2.6 137.9 -0.1 -1.7 3.3 Sep 173.6 0.5 6.4 3.5 3.7 182.3 0.2 2.7 2.5 2.6 138.9 0.7 9.1 3.3 . Oct 173.9 0.2 2.1 3.5 3.6 182.6 0.2 2.0 2.5 2.6 139.6 0.5 6.2 3.7 . Nov 174.2 0.2 2.1 3.4 3.4 183.1 0.3 3.3 2.6 2.6 139.9 0.2 2.6 3.8 . Dec 174.6 0.2 2.8 3.4 3.4 183.3 0.1 1.3 2.5 2.5 140.2 0.2 2.6 3.6 2001 Jan 175.6 0.6 7.1 3.7 7.1 183.9 0.3 4.0 2.6 4.0 141.7 1.1 13.6 4.9 . Feb 176.0 0.2 2.8 3.5 4.9 184.4 0.3 3.3 2.8 3.7 142.0 0.2 2.6 4.0 . Mar 176.1 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.5 184.8 0.2 2.6 2.7 3.3 141.7 -0.2 -2.5 3.1 . Apr 176.6 0.3 3.5 3.3 3.5 185.1 0.2 2.0 2.6 3.0 142.1 0.3 3.4 3.8 . May 177.4 0.5 5.6 3.6 3.9 185.4 0.2 2.0 2.6 2.8 142.4 0.2 2.6 3.9 . Jun 177.8 0.2 2.7 3.3 3.7 185.9 0.3 3.3 2.7 2.9 141.7 -0.5 -5.7 2.6 . Jul 177.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.7 2.7 186.3 0.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 140.0 -1.2 -13.5 1.4 . Aug 177.4 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.4 186.7 0.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 140.6 0.4 5.3 2.0 . Sep 178.1 0.4 4.8 2.6 2.7 187.1 0.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 141.1 0.4 4.4 1.6 . Oct 177.6 -0.3 -3.3 2.1 2.1 187.4 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.7 139.2 -1.3 -15.0 -0.3 . Nov 177.5 -0.1 -0.7 1.9 1.8 188.1 0.4 4.6 2.7 2.9 138.3 -0.6 -7.5 -1.1 . Dec 177.3 -0.1 -1.3 1.5 1.5 188.3 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.7 137.8 -0.4 -4.3 -1.7 2002 Jan 177.6 0.2 2.0 1.1 2.0 188.6 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 137.8 0.0 0.0 -2.8 . Feb 178.0 0.2 2.7 1.1 2.4 189.1 0.3 3.2 2.5 2.6 138.1 0.2 2.6 -2.7 . Mar 178.6 0.3 4.1 1.4 3.0 189.3 0.1 1.3 2.4 2.1 139.3 0.9 10.9 -1.7 . Apr 179.5 0.5 6.2 1.6 3.8 189.8 0.3 3.2 2.5 2.4 139.1 -0.1 -1.7 -2.1 . May 179.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.0 190.1 0.2 1.9 2.5 2.3 138.6 -0.4 -4.2 -2.7 . Jun 179.7 0.1 1.3 1.1 2.7 190.2 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.0 138.8 0.1 1.7 -2.0 . Jul 179.9 0.1 1.3 1.5 2.5 190.5 0.2 1.9 2.3 2.0 138.5 -0.2 -2.6 -1.1 . Aug 180.5 0.3 4.1 1.7 2.7 191.1 0.3 3.8 2.4 2.2 138.5 0.0 0.0 -1.5 . Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity; three-month yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to work now. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. Page 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pp. 16-17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The unified federal budget surplus/deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Measures of retail sales (pp. 12-13), manufacturers’ orders, shipments and inventories (p. 15), and the total business inventory-tosales ratio (p. 5) are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Before January 1992, data are on the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. For more information, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)
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