Full text of National Economic Trends : October 2000

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October 2000

NationalEconomicTrends

the flat line through the middle of the data. Of
course, the price of oil is determined in a volatile
global market, and one way to measure the volatility
is to calculate a standard deviation, which is about
$5.24 for these data. The two lines through the top
and bottom of the data represent the mean plus or
minus two standard deviations, respectively, a rule of
thumb that can help us think about what would constitute an “unusually high” oil price. Observed prices
outside these bands would be considered very unusual according to the rule of thumb.
According to the chart, there are only two periods
of very unusual real crude oil prices during this period. One occurred during 1990-91, when the Gulf
War caused prices to spike. The other occurred during 1998, when the Asian Crisis sent prices to very
low levels. Current prices, by contrast, do not seem
very unusual by this calculation, since they remain
well within two standard deviations of the mean.
Thus, while the real price of oil has increased substantially, much of the increase represents a return to
the mean from very low levels experienced during 1998.

What Constitutes a
High Price of Oil?

—James Bullard

Oil Price, in Constant 2000 $

Economists have been concerned about oil price
shocks since the 1970s and 1980s, when sharp increases
in crude oil prices were associated with both declines
in real output and increases in inflation in many industrialized countries. A run-up in crude oil prices over
the last eighteen months has caused a good deal of
concern that a new shock is in the making. A severe
enough change in prices might be enough to end the
long U.S. expansion and simultaneously raise inflation. But, what would “severe enough” be?
In a previous cover page (NET, April 2000), I argued
that the “real” or constant-dollar price of crude oil—the
spot crude oil price deflated by the consumer price
index—was quite a bit higher in the past, peaking at
more than $75 per barrel (in today’s dollars) during
the early 1980s, versus a price less than $30 per barrel as of March 2000. However, one might argue that
the very high prices observed during the 1970s and
1980s are irrelevant today. U.S. firms and households
may have become accustomed to the
new, lower price of oil that has prevailed
Real Oil Prices
over the last decade and a half. If that is
Monthly Average of Daily Data.
the case, then current prices may be
50
moving out of that comfort zone. In particular, businesses and consumers may
40
have become used to the very low crude
oil prices associated with the Asian Crisis
30
during 1998. So, are current prices unusual when compared to recent experience?
20
The chart suggests that the answer is “no.”
The chart shows the monthly average
10
of the real spot price of a barrel of West
Texas Intermediate crude oil from 1988
0
to the present, in today’s dollars. The
inflation-adjusted price has fluctuated
1988
1990
1992
around a mean of $23.50, represented by

Mean
+/- 2 Std. Dev.
1994

1996

1998

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

2000

TableofContents
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from
the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate
would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The
percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is:

100 x

[ ( XXt –1t )

4

–1

]

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.

NationalEconomicTrends

Real GDP Growth

10/02/00

Consumer Price Index

Industrial Production

Interest Rates

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Real Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Industrial Production and NAPM Index

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1998
3rd

4th

1999
1st

2nd

3rd

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

4th

2000
1st

2nd

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Interest Rates

Treasury Yield Curve

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

Consumer Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

10/02/00

Crude Oil Price

Consumer Price Index

Consumption Chain Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Unit Labor Cost

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Employment

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates

Duration of Unemployment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Available Labor Supply and Components

Unemployment Rate and Help-Wanted Advertising Index

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Real Disposable Personal Income

Real Consumption

Retail Sales

Household Debt Outstanding

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

Real Disposable Personal Income

10/02/00

Personal Saving Rate

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Real Investment

Real Private Fixed Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/03/00

Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Real Equipment & Software Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Housing Starts and New Home Sales

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Government Budgets
Unified Budget

National Income Accounts
State and Local
Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Change in Federal Debt

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Federal Government Debt
Total
Public Debt

Held by
Agencies
and Trusts

Total

Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Total

Foreign and
International

NationalEconomicTrends

10/03/00

Trade and Investment Income Balances

Exchange Rates

Goods Export Shares, 1999
UK
5.6%

Goods Import Shares, 1999

Mexico
12.7%

All Other
22.9%

UK
3.8%

China
7.9%

China
1.9%
Japan
8.4%

Japan
12.7%
All Other
24.8%

Germany
3.9%

France
2.8%

Other OECD
17.5%

Mexico
10.7%

Germany
5.4%

France
2.5%
Canada
24.3%

Other OECD
12.9%

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Canada
19.3%

NationalEconomicTrends

10/03/00

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
United Kingdom

Germany

Canada

France

Japan

Mexico

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour

Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

10/02/00

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Selected Component Shares of National Income

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

1O/O2~OO

NominalGOP
Billions
of $
1996
1997
1998
1999
1997

1
2

3
4
1998 1
2

3
4
1999 1
2

3
4
2000 1

2

Real GDP

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

7813.2
8318.4
8790.2
9299.2

1997
1998
1999

1997 1
2
3
4

1998 1
2

3
4

1999 1
2
3
4
2000 1

2

Billions
of 1996 $

5.6
6.5
5.7
5.8

7813.170
8159.450
8515.652
8875.761

Billions
of 1996 $

3.6
4.4
4.4
4.2

7783.176
8095.204
8435.173
8826.900

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Chanqe in
Private lnven~ories
Billions of 1996 $
Last qtr YeariYear ago

3.6
4.0
4.2
4.6

29.994
63.757
80.169
45.287

8124.2
8279.8
8390.9
8478.6

7.4
7.9
5.5
4.2

6.5
6.4
6.8
6.2

8016.391
8131.947
8216.564
8272.897

4.4
5.9
4.2
2.8

4.4
4.2
4.8
4.3

7966.392
8043.212
8164.863
8206.269

3.5
3.9
6.2
2.0

3.9
3.5
4.8
3.9

49.283
88.306
51.336
66.102

40.919
55.429
55.452
63.757

8634.7
8722.0
8829.1
8974.9

7.6
4.1
5.0
6.8

6.3
5.3
5.2
5.9

8404.861
8465.570
8537.607
8654.492

6.5
2.9
3.4
5.6

4.8
4.1
3.9
4.6

8289.394
8402.717
8463.426
8584.999

4.1
5.6
2.9
5.9

4.1
4.5
3.7
4.6

117.319
60.914
73.069
69.374

80.766
73.918
79.351
80.169

9104.5
9191.5
9340.9
9559.7

5.9
3.9
6.7
9.7

5.4
5.4
5.8
6.5

8729.967
8783.175
8905.764
9084.060

3.5
2.5
5.7
8.3

3.9
3.8
4.3
5.0

8680.265
8764.868
8861.769
9000.543

4.5
4.0
4.5
6.4

4.7
4.3
4.7
4.8

48.073
13.101
39.096
80.878

62.858
50.904
42.411
45.287

9752.7
9945.7

8.3
8.2

7.1
8.2

9191.804
9318.924

4.8
5.6

5.3
6.1

9148.034
9235.283

6.7
3.9

5.4
5.4

36.634
78.603

42.427
58.803

Consump~on

1996

Final Sales

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Private Axed Investment

Durables Consump~on

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent chang4
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual Year
rate
ago

5237.499
5423.902
5678.654
5978.815

3.2
3.6
4.7
5.3

616.475
657.347
727.268
817.779

Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

5.6
6.6
10.6
12.4

1212.696
1328.630
1485.274
1621.375

9.3
9.6
11.8
9.2

899.433
1009.344
1140.256
1255.285

10.0
12.2
13.0
10.1

5350.681
5375.664
5462.083
5507.125

4.5
1.9
6.6
3.3

3.4
2.8
4.0
4.1

641.473
636.510
670.509
680.890

10.5
—3.1
23.1
6.3

6.6
2.6
8.5
8.8

1275.405
1311.094
1356.728
1371.305

8.3
11.7
14.7
4.4

9.5
8.9
10.2
9.7

960.756
992.659
1036.974
1046.985

10.9
14.0
19.1
3.9

11.5
12.1
13.4
11.8

5572.385
5651.576
5710.969
5779.790

4.8
5.8
4.3
4.9

4.1
5.1
4.6
5.0

696.376
719.352
726.670
766.673

9.4
13.9
4,1
23.9

8.6
13.0
8.4
12.6

1427.367
1477.585
1496.394
1539.748

17.4
14.8
5.2
12.1

11.9
12.7
10.3
12.3

1095.977
1136.398
1146.336
1182.332

20.1
15.6
3.5
13.2

14.1
14.5
10.5
12.9

5860.238
5940.214
6013. 80 1
6101.005

5.7
5.6
5.0
5.9

5.2
5.1
5.3
5.6

782.677
810.480
826.150
851.802

8.6
15.0
8.0
13.0

12.4
12.7
13.7
11.1

1574.043
1607.125
1637.758
1666.560

9.2
8.7
7.8
7.2

10.3
8.8
9.4
8.2

1209.432
1237.494
1272.464
1301.758

9.5
9.6
11.8
9.5

10.4
8.9
11.0
10.1

6213.455
6260. 644

7.6
3.1

6.0
5.4

898.223
886.688

23.6
—5.0

14.8
9.4

1730.930
1777.643

16.4
11.2

10.0
10.6

1365.267
1412.488

21.0
14.6

12.9
14.1

Federal Reserve lank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends
GDPChain Price Index
Index

1996
1997
1998
1999
1997

1

Employment Cost Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

100.000
101.950
103.230
104.770

io~o
ECI: Benefits

ECI: ~lages

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

1.9
2.0
1.3
1.5

129.3
133.3
138.0
142.4

2.8
3.1
3.5
3.2

126.0
130.4
135.7
140.2

Percent chang4~
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

3.3
3.5
4.0
3.4

137.4
140.2
143.6
147.6

1.8
2.0
2.5
2.8

101.360
101.820
102.120
102.490

2.9
1.8
1.2
1.5

2.0
2.1
1.9
1.8

131.6
132.7
133.7
135.1

3.1
3.4
3.0
4.3

2.9
2.9
3.0
3.4

128.5
129.7
131.0
132.4

3.5
3.8
4.1
4.3

3.3
3.3
3.6
3.9

138.9
139.7
140.4
141.6

1.2
2.3
2.0
3.5

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2

102.750
103.040
103.420
103.690

1.0
1.1
1.5
1.0

1.4
1.2
1.3
1.2

136.2
137.3
138.8
139.7

3.3
3.3
4.4
2.6

3.5
3.5
3.8
3.4

133.7
134.9
136.5
137.5

4.0
3.6
4.8
3.0

4.0
4.0
4.2
3.9

142.2
143.2
144.1
144.9

1.7
2.8
2.5
2.2

2.4
2.5
2.6
2.3

3
4

104.250
104.630
104.900
105.310

2.2
1.5
1.0
1.6

1.5
1.5
1.4
1.6

140.3
141.8
143.1
144.5

1.7
4.3
3.7
4.0

3.0
3.3
3.1
3.4

138.1
139.7
140.9
142.2

1.8
4.7
3.5
3.7

3.3
3.6
3.2
3.4

145.4
146.8
148.2
149.9

1.4
3.9
3.9
4.7

2.3
2.5
2.8
3.5

2000 1
2

106.170
106.800

3.3
2.4

1.8
2.1

146.6
148.2

5.9
4.4

4.5
4.5

143.9
145.4

4.9
4.2

4.2
4.1

153.4
155.3

9.7
5.0

5.5
5.8

2

3
4
1998 1
2

3
4
1999 1
2

Expo~s

1996
1997

1998
1999
1997 1

2
3
4
1998 1
2

3
4
1999 1

2
3
4

2000 1
2

Nonf arm Output per Hour

Impoth

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

874.163
981.458
1003.557
1032.963

8.2
12.3
2.3
2.9

963.128
1094.778
1224.579
1355.333

Nontarm Compensatio~Hr

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanQe
Annual
Year
rate
ago

8.6
13.7
11.9
10.7

105.4
107.3
110.2
113.4

2.5
1.8
2.7
2.9

109.8
112.9
118.6
124.4

3.0
2.8
5.0
4.9

940.346
979.229
1004.186
1002.071

7.5
17.6
10.6
—0.8

11.1
13.9
15.8
8.5

1034.322
1079.801
1123.758
1141.230

15.3
18.8
17.3
6.4

12.3
13.6
14.3
14.3

106.1
107.1
108.0
108.1

0.8
3.8
3.4
0.4

1.4
1.4
2.4
2.1

111.7
112.0
113.0
114.7

2.2
1.1
3.6
6.2

3.0
2.4
2.4
3.2

1004.509
996.826
988.775
1024.117

1.0
—3.0
—3.2
15.1

6.8
1.8
—1.5
2.2

1179.803
1216.575
1232.900
1269.017

14.2
13.1
5.5
12.2

14.1
12.7
9.7
11.2

109.3
109.8
110.3
111.2

4.5
1.8
1.8
3.3

3.0
2.5
2.1
2.9

116.4
117.9
119.4
120.8

6.1
5.3
5.2
4.8

4.2
5.3
5.7
5.3

1003.277
1017.613
1042.588
1068.376

—7.9
5.8
10.2
10.3

—0.1
2.1
5.4
4.3

1283.060
1332.170
1385.190
1420.903

4.5
16.2
16.9
10.7

8.8
9.5
12.4
12.0

112.0
112.1
113.6
115.8

2.9
0.4
5.5
8.0

2.5
2.1
3.0
4.1

122.1
123.6
125.2
126.5

4.4
5.0
5.3
4.2

4.9
4.8
4,9
4.7

1084.819
1121.787

6.3
14.3

8.1
10.2

1461.653
1525.219

12.0
18.6

13.9
14.5

116.3
118.0

1.7
6.0

3.8
5.3

127.8
129.4

4.2
5.1

4.7
4.7

Federal Reserve E ink of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment

IO!O2R~O

Nontarm Payroll Employment

NonfarmAggregate Hours

Thousands

Change

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

124908
126715
129565
131463
133492

1837
1807
2850
1898
2030

1.5
1.4
2.2
1.5
1.5

117188
119597
122677
125845
128772

3053
2409
3080
3168
2926

3
4

130861
131256
131526
132208

413
394
270
682

1.3
1.2
0.8
2.1

1.8
1.5
1.2
1.3

124748
125486
126180
126967

793
737
695
787

2.6
2.4
2.2
2.5

2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4

144.2
144.7
145.5
146.4

0.8
0.4
0.5
0.7

3.1
1.5
2.0
2.7

3.3
2.6
2.5
2.3

1
2
3

133077
133214
133526

869
137
312

2.7
0.4
0.9

1.7
1.5
1.5

127800
128430
129073

833
630
644

2.6
2.0
2.0

2.4
2.3
2.3

147.1
147.8
148.5

0.5
0.5
0.5

1.9
1.9
1.8

2.0
2.1
2.1

4

134153

626

1.9

1.5

129783

710

2.2

2.2

149.6

0.7

2.9

2.1

1
2

135247
135200

1095
—47

3.3
—0.1

1.6
1.5

130626
131552

843
926

2.6
2.9

2.2
2.4

150.7
151.2

0.8
0.3

3.2
1.2

2.4
2.3

1998 Aug
Sep

131381
131922

107
541

1.0
5.1

1.1
1.5

126225
126469

378
244

3.7
2.3

2.7
2.5

145.6
145.6

0.3
0.0

3.4
0.0

2.7
2.2

Oct
Nov
Dec

131950
132156
132517

28
206
361

0.3
1.9
3.3

1.4
1.2
1.4

126677
126939
127286

208
262
347

2.0
2.5
3.3

2.4
2.4
2.4

146.2
146.3
146.8

0.4
0.1
0.3

5.1
0.8
4.2

2.4
2.2
2.4

1999 Jan
Feb
Mar

133225

708

6.6

1.8

133029
132976

—196
—53

—1.8
—0.5

1.6
1.6

127463
127883
128054

177
420
171

1.7
4.0
1.6

2.3
2.5
2.5

146.8
147.5
147.1

0.0
0.5
—0.3

0.0
5.9
—3.2

1.7
2.3
2.1

Apr
May
Jun

133054
133190
133398

78
136
208

0.7
1.2
1.9

1.4
1.5
1.6

128282
128377
128630

228
95
253

2.2
0.9
2.4

2.5
2.3
2.3

147.7
147.6
148.2

0.4
—0.1
0.4

5.0
—0.8
5.0

2.4
1.7
2.3

Jul
Aug
Sep

133399

1

0.0

1.6

133530
133650

131
120

1.2
1.1

1.6
1.3

128898
129057
129265

268
159
208

2.5
1.5
2.0

2.4
2.2
2.2

148.5
148.4
148.6

0.2
—0.1
0.1

2.5
—0.8
1.6

2.3
1.9
2.1

Oct
Nov
Dec

133940
134098
134420

290
158
322

2.6
1.4
2.9

1.5
1.5
1.4

129523
129788
130038

258
265
250

2.4
2.5
2.3

2.2
2.2
2.2

149.3
149.6
149.8

0.5
0.2
0.1

5.8
2.4
1.6

2.1
2.3
2.0

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

135221
135362
135159

801
141
—203

7.4
1.3
—1.8

1.5
1.8
1.6

130387

349

3.3

2.3

150.6

0.5

6.6

2.6

130482
131009

95
527

0.9
5.0

2.0
2.3

150.6
151.0

0.0
0.3

0.0
3.2

2.1
2.7

Apr
May
Jun

135706
134715
135179

547
—991
464

5.0
—8.4
4.2

2.0
1.1
1.3

131419
131590
131647

410
171
57

3.8
1.6
0.5

2.4
2.5
2.3

151.7
150.5
151.3

0.5
—0.8
0.5

5.7
—9.1
6.6

2.7
2.0
2.1

Jul
Aug

134749
134912

—430
163

—3.8
1.5

1.0
1.0

131596
131491

—51
—105

—0.5
—1.0

2.1
1.9

151.4
150.9

0.1
—0.3

0.8
—3.9

2.0
1.7

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1998

1999

2000

1
2

Thousands Change

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

2.7
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.3

133.4
136.6
141.4
145.2
148.3

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percent change
—
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago
2.7
2.4
3.5
2.7
2.1

NationalEconomicTrends

IO~2~O

Retail Sales

Indusifial Production

Unempl.
Rate

Billions
of dollars

Percent chance
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

5.6
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.2

2361.343
2496.503
2612.931
2745.714
2994.224

5.1
5.7
4.7
5.1
9.1

114.418
119.445
126.953
132.365
136.980

1
2

4.7
4.4
4.5
4.4

668.657
684.020
686.919
706.118

0.9
2.3
0.4
2.8

3.8
9.5
1.7
11.7

3.4
6.1
4.2
6.6

130.897
131.856
132.811
133.895

0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8

4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1

723.050
739.876
757.222
774.076

2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2

9.9
9.6
9.7
9.2

8.1
8.2
10.2
9.6

134.569
136.109
137.721
139.521

4.1
4.0

799.014
802.972

3.2
0.5

13.5
2.0

10.5
8.5

1998 Sep

4.5

230.610

1.1

14.2

Oct
Nov
Dec

4.5
4.4
4.4

233.751
235.251
237.116

1.4
0.6
0.8

1999 Jan
Feb
Mar

4.3
4.4
4.2

239.154
241.580
242.316

Apr
May
Jun

4.3
4.2
4.3

Jul
Aug

Sep

Treasury
Yields
3—mo

10—yr

4.9
4.4
6.3
4.3
3.5

5.49
5.01
5.06
4.78
4.64

6.58
6.44
6.35
5.26
5.64

2.4
3.0
2.9
3.3

5.7
4.8
3.8
2.9

5.05
4.98
4.82
4.26

5.59
5.60
5.20
4.67

0.5
1.1
1.2
1.3

2.0
4.7
4.8
5.3

2.8
3.2
3.7
4.2

4.41
4.45
4.65
5.04

4.98
5.54
5.88
6.14

141.724
144.474

1.6
1.9

6.5
8.0

5.3
6.1

5.52
5.71
6.02

6.48
6.18
5.89

4.7

133.548

—0.0

—0.4

3.7

4.61

4.81

17.6
8.0
9.9

6.3
6.5
6.9

134.108
133.777
133.801

0.4
—0.2
0.0

5.1
—2.9
0.2

3.5
2.8
2.5

3.96
4.42
4.39

4.53
4.83
4.64

0.9
1.0
0.3

10.8
12.9
3.7

7.7
8.5
8.2

134.052
134.509

0.2
0.3

2.3
4.2

2.4
2.9

135.147

0.5

5.8

3.1

4.34
4.44
4.44

4.72
5.00
5.23

244.556
247.325
247.995

0.9
1.1
0.3

11.7
14.5
3.3

8.1
8.6
7.8

135.472
136.215
136.639

0.2
0.5
0.3

2.9
6.8
3.8

2.9
2.9
3.9

4.29
4.50
4.57

5.18
5.54
5.90

4.3
4.2

250.003
253.471

0.8
1.4

10.2
18.0

9.5
11.1

4.2

253.748

0.1

1.3

10.0

137.363
137.736
138.064

0.5
0.3
0.2

6.5
3.3
2.9

4.6
3.1
3.4

4.55
4.72
4.68

5.79
5.94
5.92

Nov
Dec

4.1
4.1
4.1

254.959
257.489
261.628

0.5
1.0
1.6

5.9
12.6
21.1

9.1
9.5
10.3

139.056
139.433
140.075

0.7
0.3
0.5

9.0
3.3
5.7

3.7
4.2
4.7

4.86
5.07
5.20

6.11
6.03
6.28

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

4.0
4.1
4.1

263.493
267.164
268.357

0.7
1.4
0.4

8.9
18.1
5.5

10.2
10.6
10.7

141.117
141.635
142.419

0.7
0.4
0.6

9.3
4.5
6.8

5.3
5.3
5.4

5.32
5.55
5.69

6.66
6.52
6.26

Apr
May
Jun

3.9
4.1
4.0

267.119
267.417
268.436

—0.5
0.1
0.4

—5.4
1.3
4.7

9.2
8.1
8.2

143.528
144.709
145.185

0.8
0.8
0.3

9.8
10.3
4.0

5.9
6.2
6.3

5.66
5.79
5.69

5.99
6.44
6.10

Jul
Aug
Sep

4.0
4.1

270.750
271.205

0.9
0.2

10.8
2.0

8.3
7.0

145.207
145.681

0.0
0.3

0.2
4.0

5.7
5.8

5.96
6.09
6.00

6.05
5.83
5.80

1998

3
4
1999

1

2
3
4
2000

1

2
3

Oct

Index

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

IO~2~O

Consumer Price Index
less Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index
Index

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Year
to date

Index

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

152.5
157.0

1
2

162.1
162.8
163.5
164.2

0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4

1.0
1.7
1.7
1.7

1.5
1.6
1.6
1.5

1.0
1.3
1.5
1.5

172.2
173.2
174.2
175.1

3
4

164.9
166.2
167.2
168.4

0.4
0.8
0.6
0.7

1.7
3.3
2.5
2.9

1.7
2.1
2.3
2.6

1.7
2.5
2.5
2.6

1
2

170.2
171.7

1.0
0.9

4.3
3.7

3.2
3.3

4.3
4.0

1998 Aug
Sep

163.5
163.6

0.1
0.1

1.5
0.7

1.7
1.4

1998

3
4
1999

2000

1
2

2.8

161.4
165.8
169.7
173.7
177.3

2.9
2.3
1.6
2.2

160.6
163.1
166.7

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

ProducerPrice Index
Finished Goods
Year
to date

3.0
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.1

Index

Percent change
Monthly! Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

127.9
131.3
131.8
130.7
133.0

1.9
2.6
0.4
—0.9
1.8

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5

2.7
2.5
2.2
2.1

2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4

2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4

130.6
130.5
130.6
131.0

—0.8
—0.0
0.1
0.3

—3.0
—0.1
0.2
1.1

—1.6
—0.7
—0.6
—0.5

175.9

0.5

176.8
177.7
178.7

0.5
0.5

1.9
2.1
1.9

2.2
2.1
2.0

1.9
2.0
2.0

2.3

2.1

2.1

0.4
0.7
1.0
0.8

1.4
2.7
4.0
3.4

0.7
1.4
2.3

0.6

131.4
132,3
133.6
134.7

179.8
181.1

0.6
0.7

2.5
3.0

2.2
2.4

2.5
2.7

136.3
137.5

1.2
0.8

4.8
3.4

3.7
3.9

1.6
1.5

174.2
174.5

0.2
0.2

2.8
2.1

2.5
2.4

2.6
2.5

130.4
130.6

—0.3
0.2

—3.6
1.9

—0,8
—0.9

2.9

Oct

163.9

0.2

2.2

1.4

1.6

Nov
Dec

164.2
164.4

0.2
0.1

2.2
1.5

1.5
1.6

1.6
1.6

174.7
175.0
175.5

0.1
0.2
0.3

1.4
2.1
3.5

2.3
2.3
2.5

2.4
2.4
2.5

131.0
130.8
131.1

0.3
—0.2
0.2

3.7
—1.8
2.8

—0.7
—0.6
—0.1

1999 Jan
Feb
Mar

164.7
1 64.8
165.1

0.2
0.1
0.2

2.2
0.7
2.2

1.7
1.7
1.8

2.2
1.5
1.7

175.8
175.8
176.1

0.2
0.0
0.2

2.1
0.0
2.1

2.3
2.1
2.1

2.1
1.0
1.4

131.6
131.1
131.6

0.4
—0.4
0.4

4.7
—4.5
4.7

0.8
0.5
0.8

Apr
May
Jun

166.2
166.2
166.2

0.7
0.0
0.0

8.3
0.0
0.0

2.3
2.1
2.0

3.3
2.6
2.2

176.7
176.8
177.0

0.3
0.1
0.1

4.2
0.7
1.4

2.2
2.0
2.0

2.1
1.8
1.7

132.2
132.3
132.4

0.5
0.1
0.1

5.6
0.9
0.9

1.2
1.4
1.5

Jul
Aug

0.3
0.3
0.4

3.7
3.7
4.4

2.1
2.3
2.6

2.4
2.6
2.8

177.4
177.5
178.1

0.2
0.1
0.3

2.7
0.7
4.1

2.1
1.9
2.1

1.9
1.7
2.0

132.7

0.2

2.8

1.5

Sep

166.7
167.2
167.8

133.5
134.6

0.6
0.8

7.5
10.3

2.4
3.1

178.4
178.7
178.9

0.2
0.2
0.1

2.0
2.0
1.4

2.1
2.1
1.9

2.0
2.0
1.9

134.6
134.7
134.9

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.9
1.8

2.7
3.0
2.9

Oct

168.1

0.2

2.2

2.6

2.7

Nov
Dec

168.4
168.8

0.2
0.2

2.2
2.9

2.6
2.7

2.7
2.7

2000 Jan
Feb
Mar

169.2

0.2

2.9

2.7

2.9

170.1
171.3

0.5
0.7

6.6
8.8

3.2
3.8

4.7
6.1

179.3
179.6
180.4

0.2
0.2
0.4

2.7
2.0
5.5

2.0
2.2
2.4

2.7
2.4
3.4

135.0
136.5
137.5

0.1
1.1
0.7

0.9
14.2
9.2

2.6
4.1
4.5

Apr
May
Jun

171.3
171.5
172.4

0.0
0.1
0.5

0.0
1.4
6.5

3.1
3.2
3.7

4.5
3.9
4.3

180.8
181.1
181.4

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.7
2.0
2.0

2.3
2.4
2.5

3.2
3.0
2.8

137.0
137.3
138.1

—0.4
0.2
0.6

—4.3
2.7
7.2

3.6
3.8
4.3

Jul
Aug

172.8
172.7

0.2
—0.1

2.8
—0.7

3.7
3.3

4.1
3.5

181.8
182.1

0.2
0.2

2.7
2.0

2.5
2.6

2.8
2.7

138.1
137.8

0.0
—0.2

0.0
—2.6

4.1
3.2

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth
rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the
following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete
information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The Purchasing
Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new
orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment.
The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys
over 300 firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by
industry share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are
paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: Beginning with the October 1999 comprehensive revision to
the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), a new formula is
used to calculate the contribution of a component to the overall GDP
growth rate. The new formula produces estimates roughly equivalent to
the old formula. For more information, see the October 1999 issue of
the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for imports.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and
Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return:
capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 2000 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other series were minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the
unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to
work now. The household survey was significantly changed in January
1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons
around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10.
Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in
a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their
current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment.

Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The
unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main
ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2)
NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption
of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3)
NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are
from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year
starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal
debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings
of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid
to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts
and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of
GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54
percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity
United States Department of Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt
The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)