Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1995
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OCTOBER 1995 National Economic Trends Introducing Chain-Weight GDP Data in National year. T o lessen the bias in measuring current econom ic growth, the base year is regularly updated. Although such a revision presents a more accurate picture o f the current econom y, it further distorts the history o f the series. Economic Trends Th e chain-weight index w ill m inim ize the bias in herent in a fixed-weight index and eliminate the changes A t the end o f this year, the Department o f Com m erce in historical growth rates that occur when a new base w ill change the w ay it calculates real gross domestic product (G D P ). For nearly 50 years, real G D P has been year is established. U nder this method, real G D P is calculated using a fixed-w eigh t index. This method o f question. F or exam ple, the calculation o f 1991 real calculation w ill be replaced with a chain-weight index. G D P uses the prices in 1990 and 1991 as weights. Starting with this issue o f National Economic Trends, Real G D P fo r 1992 uses the prices in 1991 and 1992 calculated using prices in years close to the year in w e have added the chain-w eight series to the charts on as weights. M o v in g through tim e form s a chain o f pages 4 and 5. This change w ill more accurately measure the level weights that gives the index its name. o f output and econom ic growth. To measure output in sured growth under the tw o indexes. In years close to Th e table below illustrates the difference in mea any year, the Departm ent o f C om m erce first establish the base year (1987), there is little substitution bias, so es a base year. In the base year, currently 1987, real growth is the same using either index. A s expected, G D P is set equal to nominal GDP. Under a fixed- however, the chain-weight index indicates higher w eigh t index, the prices in the base year are used to growth in years prior to the base year and slower determine real G D P in every year. Thus, real G D P o f growth in years beyond the base year. Furthermore, $5,344 billion in 1994 indicates how much the econo as one m oves further from the base, the substitution my produced i f goods and services cost the same as bias inherent in the fixed-w eight index accumulates, resulting in an increasing divergence between the they did in 1987. There are, however, problem s with this method o f tw o indexes. calculation. A s prices change, people and businesses - Patricia S. Pollard alter their purchases, substituting away from goods w hose prices are rising relative to AVERAGE ANNUAL REAL GDP GROWTH others and toward goods w hose relative prices are declining. Period Chain-Weight Fixed-Weight (1987$) Difference 1961-1975 3.75% 3.38% 0.37 % points goods at their previous higher prices overstates output growth. 1975-1986 3.18 2.88 0.30 1986-1991 2.02 2.02 0 B y contrast, growth may be under stated in years before the base 1991-1994 2.72 3.16 Thus, output increases most fo r those goods w hose relative prices are falling. Evaluating these -0.44 Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824. Table o f Contents Page 3-4 5-6 7-8 9 10 11 12-13 14 15 16-17 18-21 22 23 24 25-27 Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P) Price Deflators Consumer and Producer Prices Employment Costs Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Industrial Production Employment and Unemployment Real Personal Income Retail Sales Inventories and Final Sales Components o f Real GDP U.S. International Transactions Gross Saving and Investment Corporate Profits and Cash Flow Government Budget Data How to Use the Triangles in this Publication This publication makes extensive use o f “ triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar ter o f 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1990 to m/1991 can be found at the intersection o f the D/1990 column and the HI/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next. Real Gross Domestic Product (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-90 2-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Annual Rates 2-91 3-91 4,917.1 1.5 3-90 0.3 -0.9 4-90 -0.8 -2.0 -3.2 -2.0 -2.6 -2.1 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 2.2 4,906.5 4,867.2 1-91 -1.1 2-91 -0.5 3-91 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 1.6 1.0 4-91 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 1.1 0.5 • 4,842.0 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. 2 4,867.9 4,879.9 0.1 4,880.8 Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices. Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 1.0 2.8 1.9 2.9 3.9 3.2 3.9 3.5 3.0 4.2 3.7 4.4 3.9 4.5 4.0 5.0 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.7 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.2 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5.0 4.4 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 3.8 3.2 4.5 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 2.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 7.1 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.7 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 5.597.9 5,636.8 5,705.9 5,759.9 5.2 5.0 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.6 5,796.6 5,896.8 5,971.3 4.9 6.7 6.0 5.5 52 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 8.6 6.5 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 4.4 4.3 4.1 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 4.2 4.0 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.5 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 3.8 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.6 7.7 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.1 5.6 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Second quarter data are final estimates. Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 7.2 6.7 6.6 6.1 5.5 6.2 6.3 5.8 5.1 6.4 5.5 4.7 4.7 3.9 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 6,043.6 6.169.3 6,235.9 6,299.9 6,359.2 6,478.1 6,574.7 6,689.9 6,791.7 6.897.2 6,977.4 7,030.0 3.0 1-95 Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis October 2 ,1 9 9 5 3 Real Gross Domestic Product Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 5.0 ... Percent 5.0 ^ 1987 dollar ^ Tren d (Fixed—w eight) f/2 1 2.5 2.5 Chain—weigh t & 0.0 / 1989 É “ ' 1 i * .1 1 1991 o 1 / CO CO -2 .5 --------- * I 0.0 _r" I ' - 1992 1 1 1 - 1993 1 1 1 1 . 1 1 99 4 -2 .5 1995 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. differs oriyeslfg'htl>fn~^ear mov'n^ avera9® of fixed—weight (1987 dollar) growth rate. The chain—weight trend (not shown) Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Gross Domestic Product (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 -3.2 -2.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 LI 1.4 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.7 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1.0 0.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 0.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 3.0 2.7 2,6 2.6 3,0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 4,867.2 2.2 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 4,842.0 4,867.9 4,879.9 4,880.8 4,918.5 2,4 2.9 3,9 3.2 3,0 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3,7 3.6 3.4 3.5 4.6 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 5.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.6 3.6 3,7 3.7 3.9 3.7 3,5 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.3 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2.4 2.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.5 6.3 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.3 3,7 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.4 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.4 4.0 4,6 3.9 3,3 5.1 3.9 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.3 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. 2.7 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.7 4,947.5 4,990.5 5,060.7 5,075.3 5,105.4 5,139.4 5,218.0 5,261.1 5.314.1 5,367.0 5,433.8 5,470.1 5,487.8 4 Implicit and Chain Price Deflators for GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Implicit Price Deflator (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 4-91 3-90 4-90 4.3 5.0 4.6 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 1-91 2-91 3-91 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.8 2,7 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-95 115.0 116.4 117.2 118.0 2.7 3.2 3,1 2.6 2.6 2.7 2,6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 118.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 119.9 2,7 2.0 2,2 2.5 2,3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2,2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2,1 120.7 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 121.1 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 121.9 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 17 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.9 2,9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 122.9 123.4 123.7 124.1 125.0 125.9 126.5 126.9 127.6 128.1 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2 ,1 9 9 5 Second quarter data are final estimates. 1987=100 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5 GDP Fixed Weight Deflator (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 3.5 4.4 5.3 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 29 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1987=100 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 115.3 116.8 117.7 118.6 119.4 120.5 3,4 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 29 2,8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 121.5 122.3 2.6 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.6 26 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 28 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 2.8 1-95 123.2 124.4 125.2 125.8 126.6 127.5 128.5 129.4 130.3 131.3 132.2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 Second quarter data are final estimates. Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter CO CN 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1987=100 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 117.5 118.5 24 2.7 3 1 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 29 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 25 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 26 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 119.2 120.1 121.1 122.1 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 23 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 2.0 2.2 22 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 2.5 1-95 128.9 129.9 130.5 131.2 132.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Second quarter data are final estimates. 123.2 123.7 124.9 125.7 126.4 126.8 127.5 127 9 1.6 ;► — <0 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 3-90 4-90 6.7 3.4 5.1 4.2 2.9 3.0 3.9 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.1 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.4 30 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 3-90 4-90 October 2, 1995 6 Consumer Price Index Percent Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 Initial Month 1982-84=100 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 3.3 146.8 2.9 2.5 147.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 147.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.6 147.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 4.1 148.1 2.9 2.8 3.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 148.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.1 5.0 149.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.6 2.4 149.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 1.6 149.6 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 1.6 149.8 2.6 19 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.4 150.1 1.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.2 4.1 150.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 3.2 3.7 2.6 2.8 3.2 151.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.4 2.8 151.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.9 151.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.2 152.3 3.1 3.5 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1 152.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.4 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 152.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 153.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.2 19 2.0 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2,1995 7 Producer Price Index - Finished Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 8 -2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index - Finished Goods (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 2.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 2.9 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 1.9 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 Initial Month 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 125.2 125.2 125.2 125.1 -3.7 -4.2 -0.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 -4.7 1.4 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.6 7.9 5.9 5.9 4.9 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.3 3.9 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 5.8 3.9 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.9 2.4 19 1.2 0.9 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 1982=100 125.2 125.5 126.2 125.8 125.3 126.1 126.5 127.1 127.3 127.5 127.8 127.9 127.8 127.8 127.7 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 Employment Cost Index and Its Components Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 8 Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 1-91 2-91 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 107.2 108.4 109.7 110.8 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 111.9 4.0 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3-91 4-91 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.9 4.1 3,9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Data are for the last month of quarter. June 1989=100 1-95 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.3 2,6 2.9 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.7 116.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.3 125.2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 9 Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent 8 -2 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Sector - Output Per Hour (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 -1.1 3.3 1.1 2.7 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 1-91 2-91 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1982=100 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 110.5 111.4 2.2 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.1 1.8 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.8 3.1 3.1 32 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 5.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 3-91 4-91 1.8 2.5 2.8 1.6 1,3 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.8 2,0 2.0 2,2 3.2 3.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 3.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 1,8 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.1 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.4 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2.4 3.6 3.0 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 4.9 3.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.8 1.7 0,2 1.2 1.9 2.0 2,4 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 -1.3 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.4 3.7 3.2 4.1 3.0 2.0 3,5 3.6 3,3 4.7 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of October 2 ,1 9 9 5 10 112.0 112.3 113.0 114.4 114.9 115.8 116.8 116.2 116.3 117.0 118.4 118.9 118.5 119.5 120.7 121.3 122.7 St. Louis Industrial Production Seasonally Adjusted 1 987 -1 00 1987=100 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Industrial Production (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 Initial Month 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 9.8 10.4 10.9 7.2 5.8 1.0 7.2 6.4 4.2 7.4 6.4 4.9 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.2 5.5 4.2 5.2 4.2 2.1 5.2 6.7 6.1 6.3 5.9 5.7 9.5 4.2 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.1 3.4 4.1 -1.0 5.1 4.3 5.6 4.9 5.2 4.3 3.9 4.5 2.0 5.5 4.8 5.9 6.7 8.3 5.3 5.0 4.7 5.4 4.1 6.4 5.9 6.7 6.5 9.4 11.6 14.9 6.4 6.4 7.3 6.7 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.1 8.6 5.9 7.8 8.8 5.9 6.5 5.9 5.2 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.7 6.7 6.1 5.1 6.4 5.4 5.1 4.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.2 5.1 4.3 5.1 4.1 3.6 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.9 1.8 2.7 3.2 4.0 4.3 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.3 2.7 2.6 3.0 1.8 3.6 4.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.3 3.6 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.6 4.2 4.5 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.0 1987=100 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 • 3.0 2.0 1.0 -1.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.6 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1.0 0.0 -2.6 -1.5 -1.6 -0.7 1.4 1-95 -1.0 -4.3 -7.6 2.0 -2.3 -2.9 0.0 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 1.3 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 4.0 4.5 5.4 1.5 2.0 9.2 14.7 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 115.6 116.6 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.2 119.1 119.0 119.5 120.3 121.7 122.0 122.1 122.0 121.2 121.4 121.2 121.6 123.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 11 Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Percent 130 t | i 1989 I | 1990 i I i | i 1991 i | 1992 i i | i 1993 i | i 1994 i | r 1995 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. * Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Employment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 1-94 2-94 3.0 3-94 1.3 4.-Q4. 1.6 5-94 2.0 6-94 1.4 7-94 1.4 8-94 1.8 9-94 2.1 10-94 2.5 11-94 2.5 12-94 2.4 1-95 2.2 2-95 2.4 3-95 24 4-95 2.1 5-95 1.5 6-95 1.5 7-95 1.7 8-95 1.5 1-94 Thousands of Initial Month 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 122,208 -0.5 1.0 2.4 2.7 1.6 3.0 1.1 1.1 -0.7 1.6 1.1 0.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.8 4.1 2.0 2,0 1.6 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 3.7 4.7 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.8 4.5 4.9 2.4 2.8 2.8 4.0 3.7 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.4 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.7 2.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.7 4.8 2.7 3.3 3.2 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.3 3 1 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 1.4 2.3 2.9 3.1 1.2 1.4 -0.3 -1.9 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -7.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 14 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -1.5 -2.5 -2.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4 1.7 1.6 3.1 4.7 1.3 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 1.4 1.5 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 -1.7 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 Persons 122,160 122,402 122,703 122,635 122,781 123,197 123,644 124,141 124,403 124,570 124,639 125,125 125,274 125,072 124,319 124,485 124,959 124,779 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 12 Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted i 1 — — 1 — i— ' 1989 1990 100 1 — i— '— — 1 T 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Payroll Employment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 4»H CO 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 Initial Month 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 3.0 4.3 5.6 4.3 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.4 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 5.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 19 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.0 3.3 3.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 18 1.0 0.1 2,5 24 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 2.0 19 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.1 1,2 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.4 19 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.1 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2,1 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.5 19 2.0 1.5 1,3 1.3 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.5 Thousands 112,576 113,087 113,363 113,638 113,943 114,171 114,510 114,762 114,935 115,427 115,624 115,810 116,123 116,302 116,310 116,248 116,547 116,553 116,802 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2,1995 13 Real Personal Income Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 4.6 4.2 3.8 3 .4 Disposable Personal Income -i 1989 -| 1990 i i---1---1-- ---1-- 1---1------1---1 -- r 1991 1992 1993 1 1994 r 1995 Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987= 100). Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Disposable Personal Income (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Billions of Dollars Initial Month 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 2-94 18.1 3.793.3 3-94 10.4 3.1 4-94 5.4 -0.4 -3.8 3.790.9 5-94 6.7 3.2 3.2 10.6 ♦ 6-94 5.2 2.2 1.9 4.8 -0.6 7-94 4.6 2.1 1.8 3.8 0.5 1.6 3,826.0 8-94 4.5 2.4 2.3 3.9 1.7 4.2 2.9 9-94 4.7 2.9 2.9 4.3 2.7 5.1 5.9 3.9 10-94 6.0 4.7 8.7 11.1 16.5 4.5 6.2 5.4 6.9 11-94 5.1 3.8 3.8 5.0 4.1 6.5 6.8 -2.2 5.0 5.9 12-94 5.4 4.2 8.4 4.3 5.4 4.7 6.9 7.3 3,0 5,6 6.4 4.2 5.2 6.1 3.9 1-95 5.3 4.3 4.6 6.4 3.3 5.3 6.0 6.3 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.2 2-95 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.6 5.8 3.3 3.7 35 5.9 4.2 4.1 5.0 4.4 4.9 4.0 3-95 5.1 5.6 5.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 5.0 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.3 2.7 4-95 3.7 0.5 1.1 -0.7 -2.2 -4.9 -13.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.7 3.1 3.7 1.6 5-95 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.3 1.0 0.3 -0.7 -3.0 8.3 1.7 1.2 3.2 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.6 2.6 6-95 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 2,0 0.6 -0.5 6.5 4.8 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.6 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.8 3.3 7-95 4.1 1.5 0.8 5.9 4.8 4.8 3.5 1,6 |,3 3.1 8-95 3.8 4.0 2.6 1.6 -1.6 3-3 34 1.9 2.4 3,0 m M 34 10 04 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Annual Rates 3,803.1 3,822.9 3.820.9 3,839.2 3,857.6 3,907.0 3,899.9 3.926.1 3,938.6 3.950.0 3,962.9 3.917.0 3,943.0 3.958.4 3,974.0 3.968.8 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 14 Retail Sales Billions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84=100). Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Retail Sales (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 23.2 18.3 13.6 4.3 -4.3 10.2 6.4 13 -4.3 -4.3 3.3 0.1 2.3 9.4 7.0 1.1 3.8 -1.5 5.5 2.3 -0.3 3.5 6.3 4.8 1.9 6.4 3.8 2.7 4.2 6.5 5.5 4.2 6.4 5.6 7.7 7.3 4.1 7.1 5.3 5.2 3.9 6.8 6.3 5.0 6.6 3.4 4.4 5.7 4.4 5.1 6.0 3.2 4.1 5.2 4.1 4.6 5.6 2.4 2.7 3.2 2.5 1.8 4.2 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.5 2.8 4.3 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.6 3.6 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.2 4.0 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.2 4.3 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.4 3.7 2.9 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.8 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 Initial Month Billions of Dollars 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 123.681 125.005 124.543 124.090 125.026 124.872 11.4 125.999 9.2 7.0 126.712 10.4 9.9 12.9 128.003 8.3 7.3 7.5 2.3 128.251 6.5 5.3 4.7 0.8 -0.7 128.176 5.7 4.5 3.9 1.1 0.5 1.7 128.353 1.7 3.0 0.7 -2.2 -3.6 -5.1 -11.4 127.065 3.4 2.3 1.5 -0.6 -1.4 -1.6 -3.2 5.8 127.662 2.4 1.3 0.5 -1.4 -2.2 -2.6 -3.9 0.0 -5.4 127.072 2.1 10.2 3.1 2.2 3.3 1.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 128.107 4.7 4.4 9.6 9.0 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.2 1.0 1.3 13 129.032 1.5 2.7 2.3 3.9 0.8 -6.7 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 128.287 2.4 3.0 2.9 0.8 4.4 2.6 -0.5 6.1 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 128.922 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84= 100). Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2 ,1 9 9 5 15 Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio Seasonally Adjusted Ratio Ratio Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Inventories and Sales (Billions of Dollars) Manufacturing Period 1992 1993 1994 Retail Trade Total Business(3) Shipments (1) 2931.95 3100.14 3364.60 Inventories (2) 379.24 377.43 391.81 Sales (1) 1944.61 2072.61 2233.91 Inventories (2) 251.99 267.68 290.02 Sales (1) 6720.25 7113.59 7671.01 Inventories (2) 838.90 860.98 916.55 1994 September October November December 286.13 283.98 291.19 296.05 386.53 388.06 389.99 391.81 189.31 191.49 192.12 192.39 287.25 288.67 289.99 290.02 651.40 653.12 661.90 671.28 902.12 908.57 913.83 916.55 1995 January February March April May June July August 297.79 298.56 298.44 295.29 297.09 298.71 292.82 NA 396.10 399.73 402.08 405.68 408.29 410.01 412.45 NA 193.30 191.87 193.15 193.02 195.11 196.77 196.02 197.25 294.30 296.00 297.20 299.69 300.53 300.33 298.25 NA 673.92 675.48 674.80 672.91 678.44 682.96 674.95 NA 928.67 936.09 942.74 952.24 956.52 960.16 962.83 NA 1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales. 2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks. 3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 16 Real Final Sales and Real GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices. Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Final Sales (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 -0.6 -1.5 -2.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 1.8 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 4,888.0 4,858.4 1-95 4,879.8 -0.8 -0.5 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 1-91 2-91 4,869.5 -0.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3 1 3.1 4.8 3.1 3.2 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.4 33 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3-91 4-91 1.5 2.5 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.5 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 5,6 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.3 3,1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3,3 0.2 1.3 1.9 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.4 2.8 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 4.8 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 6.4 4.3 3.4 3.6 4,0 3.8 3.6 2.2 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1.5 2.9 3.8 3.5 33 4.3 5.0 4.2 3.8 5.7 4.1 3.6 2.6 2,6 2.6 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 4,867.3 4,924.8 4,943.2 4,985.3 5,054.1 5,056.8 5,086.5 5.126.5 5.207.2 5,235.7 5,254.9 5,310.0 5,384.4 5,419.0 5.453.5 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2,1995 17 Components of Real GDP Growth Rate 2-95 1.30 Real GDP 1 -95 4-94 3-94 5.07 2.70 2-94 1 -94 4-93 3-93 4.04 4.09 3.35 6.26 2.69 Components m 2.55 2.57 5.66 4.21 1.47 2.20 6.43 3.17 -1.22 0.13 -0.57 -0.16 2.59 1.12 -0.17 -0.46 Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.24 1.06 3.39 2.04 0.88 3.11 2.67 2.61 Fixed Investment 0.87 2.47 2.22 1.40 1.40 1.67 3.38 1.70 Nonresidential Residential 1.48 2.63 2.12 1.67 1.09 1.26 2.30 1.33 -0.61 -0.15 0.10 -0.27 0.30 0.41 1.05 0.37 Final Sales Change in Business Inventories Government Purchases Federal State and Local 0.04 -0.13 -0.73 1.13 -0.21 -0.89 -0.02 0.20 -0.18 -0.24 -0.97 0.66 -0.53 -0.72 -0.35 -0.21 0.21 0.11 0.25 0.46 0.31 -0.16 0.33 0.41 Net Exports -0.60 -0.84 0.74 -0.39 -0.59 -1.66 0.32 -1.33 Exports Imports 0.84 0.61 2.36 1.71 1.86 -0.43 2.35 -0.38 -1.43 -1.44 -1.59 -2.08 -2.41 -1.24 -1.99 -0.94 (1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated. Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 2.1 -1.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 1.7 1.3 -0.6 -0.0 0.9 0.4 -0.5 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 5.8 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 3.7 2.0 1.0 2.4 2.7 3.8 1.6 2.3 1.5 4.2 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.7 1.5 2.7 3.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.5 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.6 2.6 3.0 3.7 2.2 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.5 2.2 2.7 3.6 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1.7 2.8 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.7 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.4 5.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.1 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.3 4.7 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.2 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. 3.9 3.9 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1.3 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.1 4.1 3.2 3.3 5.1 3.3 3.3 1.6 2.5 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 3.265.9 3,242.9 3,259.5 3,269.8 3,265.3 3,311.4 3,325.4 3,357.6 3,403.4 3,417.2 3,439.2 3,472.2 3,506.2 3,546.3 3,557.8 3,584.7 3.629.6 3,643.9 3.4_________ 3,674.3 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2,1995 18 Real Residential Fixed Investment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 -24,3 -24.5 -16.5 -9.4 4-90 -24.8 -12.3 -3.8 -4.9 0.7 -0.8 4.7 2.2 7.5 2.1 6.5 4.3 8.5 4.4 8.2 3.2 6.5 3.7 6.8 5.4 8.4 5.8 8.5 5.8 8.4 7.4 5.1 7.0 4.9 4.4 6.4 5.2 3.4 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2.2 8.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 17.8 18.9 19.0 20.2 15.1 15.0 16.5 16.7 14.9 14.7 11.8 11.2 11.5 11.0 13.1 12.8 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.7 8.7 9.2 7.1 7.3 7.6 1-91 2-91 3-91 10.9 13.7 15.4 12.9 14.4 13.2 10,7 10.6 12,0 11.9 11.5 10.1 9.6 8.7 22.4 22.6 14.8 17.0 14.6 10.5 10.4 12.5 12.2 11.6 9.9 9.3 8.2 6.5 4-91 22.7 11.2 0.8 15.3 11,7 12.7 9.5 8.3 5.0 8.5 5.9 11.1 9.3 11.0 9.4 10.5 9.1 8.7 7.3 8.1 6.8 7.1 5.8 5.4 4.0 1-92 2-92 23.8 14.2 5.3 6.4 -13 -7.6 2.1 7.2 0.6 n .i 8.1 9.0 10.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 8.2 8.8 8.1 6.1 6.2 5.6 7.5 5.6 4.5 4.4 6.3 4.3 2.6 2.2 3-92 4-92 1-93 9.4 18.4 15.5 13.3 9.2 8.0 6.3 3.5 2-93 28.2 18.7 10.0 14.7 8.5 7.0 3.4 0.3 9.1 7.7 0.9 3.1 5.8 1.8 -0.2 2.7 -1.0 -3.0 3-93 4-93 1-94 -6.0 -2 0 2.3 -2.4 -0.6 -3.4 -5.4 -5.2 -8.7 -13.7 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 176.3 164.2 165.1 171.2 177.5 186.7 196.5 196.9 207.7 210.4 206.3 211.0 224.5 229.9 233.8 230.2 231.5 229.5 221.2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2 ,1 9 9 5 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 -12.7 -7.9 -6.3 -6.2 -5.0 -1.9 -1.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.0 1.9 3.8 2.7 5.1 4.1 5.5 4.5 5.8 4.8 6.3 5.4 7.0 6.1 7.8 6.9 80 7.1 3-90 4-90 00 o' 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 -7.7 -10.2 -7.9 -6.7 -6.5 -5.4 -2.8 -1.8 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 540.2 Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 522.2 -3.0 -3.0 -3.9 -2.9 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 4.9 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.8 85 9.2 9.4 1-91 518.3 -3.0 -4.4 -2.9 1.3 2.0 2.9 4.6 5.9 6.6 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.7 9.3 10.1 10.2 2-91 -5.7 -2.9 2.7 3.3 4.1 5.9 7.2 7.8 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.3 111 11.1 3-91 -0.1 7.2 6.4 6.7 8.3 9.5 9.9 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.5 12.4 4-91 15.0 9.9 9.1 10.6 11,6 11.7 13,0 12.7 12,3 12.5 12.9 13.6 13.4 1-92 5.0 6.2 9.1 10.7 11.0 12.6 12.4 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.5 13.3 2-92 7.5 11.3 12.7 12.6 14.2 13.7 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.4 14.1 3-92 15.1 15.4 14.3 16.0 14.9 13.9 14.0 14.4 15.2 14.8 4-92 15.6 13.9 16.2 14.9 13.7 13.8 14.3 15.2 14.8 1-93 12.2 16.5 14.6 13.2 13.4 14.1 15.1 14.6 2-93 21.1 15.9 13.6 13.7 10.9 10.0 11.4 14.5 12.9 15.6 14.6 15.0 14.0 3-93 4-93 9.2 11.6 13.6 15.5 14.7 1-94 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. 17.6 19.6 21.5 16.7 16.3 11.3 3-94 4-94 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Second quarter data are final estimates. 14.1 15.9 17.7 16.1 2-94 514.4 506.9 506.8 524.8 531.2 540.9 560.3 581.0 597.9 627.2 643.6 657.9 680.0 708.2 743.6 763.7 October 2,1995 19 Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 5.8 4.4 3.0 3.1 1.7 1.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.8 0.6 -0.4 0.1 -0.8 0.5 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.8 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 942.4 949.5 0.5 -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 -1.6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -3.9 -3.4 -1.8 *2.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 1-91 2-91 . ' -2.9 -0.7 1.5 -1.5 ♦0.8 -3.0 3.4 0.1 0.6 -0.3 2.1 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 Afin,, 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 950.6 941.3 934.4 937.8 0.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -5.9 -2.4 1.2 -1.2 1.1 -1.0 0.7 -1.8 -0.7 -1 7 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.3 -1.0 -0.3 „ ¡ M , -0.8 -0.$ 3-92 4-92 1-93 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. 1.1 0.5 -1.3 -1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 930.7 938.5 940.6 926.5 929.3 931.8 931.5 919.9 917.1 932.0 922.2 920.5 -0.1 -2.5 *2.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.8 -4.9 -3.1 -1,2 6.7 0.1 2.6 -1.0 0.3 1.1 -4,1 -0.9 0.1 0.5 -2.5 -0.7 (?,1 0.4 -0.3 :P,rT -0,8 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 0.2 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2 ,1 9 9 5 Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 7.5 8.4 9.3 4.0 -1.1 5.1 1.1 -1.0 -5.8 -10.2 -1.2 -3.2 -1.2 -2.8 -5.6 -7.1 -5.5 -1.3 -1.7 -3.2 -5.5 -6.5 -5.3 -3.1 -0.5 -1.6 -3.3 -3.7 -2.0 0.7 -0.3 -1.2 -2.7 -2.9 -1,4 0.8 -1.9 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8 -3.9 -2.7 -2.1 -3.0 -4.3 -4.7 -3.8 -2.8 -2.2 -3.0 -4.1 -4.5 -3.7 -2.9 -2.4 -3.2 -4.2 -4.5 -3.9 -3.1 -3.0 -3.7 -4.7 -5.1 -4.5 -3.9 -3.3 -4.0 -5.0 -5.3 -4,8 -4.4 -2.5 -3.1 -3.9 -4.1 -3.6 -3.1 -3.2 -3.8 -4.7 -4.9 -4.5 -4.1 -3.2 -3.8 -4.6 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.2 -3.8 -4.5 -4.7 -4.0 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Billions of Dollars Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 386.5 1-95 395.2 394.1 383.6 374.1 -4.8 1.7 1.5 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3,4 -4.3 -4,7 -3.2 -4.3 -4.3 8.6 4.8 -2.4 -2.7 -2.8 -3.1 -4.2 -4.7 -3.1 -4.3 -4.2 -4.1 1-92 2-92 11 -7.5 -6,2 -5.4 -5,3 -6.2 -6.4 -4.4 -5.6 -5.4 -5.2 3-92 -15.4 -9.7 -7.5 -6.9 -7.6 -7.6 -5.2 -6.4 -6.1 -5.8 4-92 -3.6 -3.3 -3.9 -5.5 -6.0 -3.4 -5.0 -4.9 -4.7 1-93 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.1 -7.7 -10.3 -6.6 -7.8 -9.1 -7.9 1.1 -3.3 -3.4 -2.9 -5.3 -5.7 -5.9 -4.4 -5.1 -5.4 -5.5 -4.2 -4.8 -5.0 -5,1 -4.0 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 10.9 -2.6 -14.4 -3.0 -9.3 -3.8 -3.0 -7.2 -3.4 -2.9 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2,1995 20 372.9 368.3 376.0 377.0 361.6 358.3 355.6 351.1 341.7 334.7 343.5 330.4 327.2 324.8 Real Exports (Compound Annual R a te s o f Change) Terminal Quarter Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 9.6 4.1 -1.1 9.4 9.3 20.7 7.1 6.3 10.2 0.6 8.4 8.1 11.4 7.0 13.7 8.0 7.7 10.0 6.7 9.8 6.1 7.1 6.6 8.3 5.3 7.0 3.8 1.5 6.8 6.4 7.8 5.3 6.6 4.3 3.4 5.3 6.9 7.7 6.7 6.5 5.6 5,0 4.6 6.2 7.2 6.1 5.7 6.5 4.7 5.4 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.0 -1.0 6.7 5.7 3.2 6.2 5.9 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.7 4.6 7.7 5.4 5.0 2.8 1.0 2.1 -3.2 5.6 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.1 2.5 6.6 6.3 5.7 6.3 5.4 5.3 6.1 8.2 8.5 21.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 4.4 4.2 4.4 5.2 5.5 4.8 5.3 4.6 3.9 4.3 6.1 8.3 -3.5 5.5 6.5 6.3 5.8 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.9 7.4 6.1 16.6 6.9 7.3 11.0 7.0 6.4 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.9 7.2 7.1 8.6 8.7 12.0 6.8 7.4 8.9 15.7 14.8 77 7.4 8.5 8.7 10.2 10 6 13.6 n .6 17.2 17.5 20.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 7,4 7.6 8.2 7.7 8.2 9.7 12.1 10.2 14.0 13.1 12.3 7.6 7.4 8.0 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.3 9.5 4.8 5.7 6.6 7.4 7.9 7.2 7.6 7,2 7.8 8.0 9.2 9.3 11,3 9.6 12.5 11.4 10.4 7.5 7.3 8.1 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. 520.4 519.0 544.0 544.8 562.6 571.0 573.1 580.5 590.7 589.2 600.2 595.3 625.2 619.6 643.9 666.5 697.9 706.2 717.6 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2 ,1 9 9 5 Real Imports (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 -9.1 - 10.7 -12.2 -3.0 0.2 14.4 0.2 3.5 12.4 10.4 1.2 7.9 5.4 4.0 10.0 7.5 2.1 4.5 9.2 6.0 6.6 9.9 8.8 8.3 3.6 5.9 9.8 13,0 9.7 8.7 4.2 6.2 8.3 8.4 9.3 10.7 9.2 8.4 8.0 6.3 7.4 4.4 9.3 8.6 9.5 8.8 6.9 8.6 8.8 5.1 9.2 9.9 9.6 6.0 7.6 10.1 9.4 10.1 10.8 10.3 9.8 9.3 9.7 7.6 9.2 6.1 9.7 10.2 8.3 10.4 10.0 9.9 10.5 11.1 10.7 6,8 8.4 10.3 9.9 7.0 9.9 10.4 10.9 10.6 9.1 10.9 10.6 10.7 11.2 11.7 11.6 7.8 9.5 11.3 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.0 8.2 9.6 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.6 12.0 11.9 8.4 9.7 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.5 11.9 11.8 8.5 9.7 11.1 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.6 8.6 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 Dollars are measured using 1987 prices. Second quarter data are final estimates. Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 6.5 9.0 11.6 10.9 13.2 14.9 10.0 11.2 11.1 7.4 11.2 12.4 12.7 11.6 16.0 10.9 11.8 11.9 10.9 12.7 9.5 12.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 14.7 14.1 18.9 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.4 15.0 14.6 17.2 15.6 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.1 14.2 13.8 15.3 13.5 11.4 12.1 12.8 12.9 12.6 13.5 13.0 14.0 12.4 10.8 10.1 11.9 12.5 12.6 12.3 13.0 12.5 13.1 11.7 10.5 10.0 9.9 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 557.2 539.4 557.8 571.8 579.4 588.8 607.1 619.4 629.3 646.8 669.6 681.6 707.4 723.6 755.6 783.5 805.0 824.6 844.3 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 Trade and Current Account Balances Current Prices Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 1989 199 0 1991 1992 1993 1 99 4 1995 The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months. Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bonk of St. Louis U.S. In te rnation al T ra n sa ctio n s (Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted) 2-95 1 -95 4-94 3-94 2-94 194,302 189,189 184,873 178,274 171,823 45,261 43,254 38,307 36,031 32,338 4-93 3-93 166,231 166,422 158,613 30,942 30,412 29,931 1 -94 Exports Goods and Services Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad Imports Goods and Services -227,670 -218,629 -212,340 -207,081 -198,746 -189,247 -186,912 -180,601 -48,135 -45,215 -42,878 -38,564 -34,623 -30,826 -30,376 -26,741 Balance on Current Account -43,622 -39,025 -43,277 -39,714 -37,986 -30,271 -31,176 -27,032 Change in U.S. Assets Abroad -75,107 -75,343 -55,156 -27,940 -5,973 -36,783 -77,657 -46,270 Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -2,722 -5,318 2,033 -165 3,537 -59 -673 -545 -72,228 -69,873 -56,258 -27,492 -10,001 -37,125 -76,666 -45,529 114,218 94,841 84,715 79,736 46,526 80,390 99,458 77,928 Foreign Official Assets 37,759 22,308 -421 19,691 9,162 10,977 24,311 19,386 Other Foreign Assets 76,459 72,533 85,136 60,045 37,364 69,413 75,147 58,542 U.S. Official Reserve Assets U.S. Private Assets Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S. Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 22 Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1989 1990 1991 Percent 1992 1993 1 99 4 1995 Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Saving and Investment (Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP) G ross Saving G ross Private Saving Period S Billion % of GDP $ Billion 1990:1 2 3 4 735.5 765.9 705.5 683.8 13.5 13.8 12.6 12.2 867.4 888.5 825.5 863.1 1991:1 2 3 4 798.8 744.5 722.1 740.1 14.2 13.0 12.5 12.8 1992:1 2 3 4 719.1 722.3 731.9 718.5 1993:1 2 3 4 %( Gross Private Dom estic Investm ent U.S. Net Foreign Investm ent $ Billion % of GDP $ Billion % of GDP 15.9 16.0 14.8 15.4 828.9 837.8 812.5 756.4 15.2 15.1 14.6 13.5 -80.3 -73.8 -92.1 -67.7 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 933.2 937.3 917.9 960.7 16.6 16.4 15.9 16.6 732.8 733.1 756.5 756.8 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.1 55.8 17.6 -22.2 -18.8 1.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.6 979.1 981.2 1005.3 957.5 16.6 16.4 16.6 15.5 747.7 787.9 795.5 822.0 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.3 -26.6 -54.1 -59.9 -85.6 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4 760.1 775.0 788.9 825.8 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.7 1022.0 986.6 989.9 1011.4 16.4 15.7 15.6 15.6 853.8 869.7 882.2 922.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.2 -68.3 -88.9 -98.8 -113.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 1994:1 2 3 4 886.2 923.3 922.6 950.3 13.5 13.8 13.6 13.8 1037.3 1041.4 1052.7 1082.7 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.7 966.6 1034.4 1055.1 1075.6 14.7 15.5 15.5 15.6 -116.4 -135.1 -153.6 -167.7 -1.8 -2.0 -2.3 -2.4 1995:1 2 1006.0 983.8 14.4 14.0 1126.4 1090.0 16.1 15.5 1107.8 1094.1 15.9 15.6 -160.4 -177.3 -2.3 -2.5 Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy. U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S.. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 Corporate Profits After-Tax (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 7.4 35.4 24.6 15.2 14.1 14.7 11.1 3.7 11.6 10.2 11.8 13.4 14.3 11.4 12.5 11.9 10.9 10.7 10.8 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 70.7 5.4 34.1 18.0 -1.9 1.8 15.9 16.2 5.5 11.7 2.6 3.2 -5.1 5.6 12.1 4.7 10.5 7.1 12.2 14.0 9.5 14.9 10.8 7.9 11.8 12.9 9.3 12.2 8.9 11.2 8.0 10.8 7.9 11,0 8.2 4-90 -8.7 0.1 5.6 2.0 -7.1 5.6 4.6 7.3 9.9 11.4 8.1 9.7 9.1 8.2 8.1 8.4 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Initial Quarter 3-92 4-92 1-93 9.7 13.6 17.6 5.8 3.9 -8.2 -6.7 -11.5 -23.3 -35.8 8.7 8,5 5.6 13.3 100.2 8.2 40.5 7.0 6.4 3.8 9.9 8.4 13.0 36.5 9.9 12.5 12.9 12.2 16.8 35.6 13.9 14.4 14.0 18.2 33.5 10.0 10.0 9.1 11.8 22.7 11.5 11.7 11.0 13.7 23.4 10.8 10.9 10.2 12.5 20.7 9.6 9.6 8.9 10.8 17.8 9.4 9.4 8.7 10.4 16.5 9.6 9.6 9.0 10.6 16,2 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 -1.4 12.7 19.1 20.6 11.2 13.9 12.2 10.2 9.7 10,1 4-92 2-93 28.8 30.9 29.0 14.6 17.2 14.7 12.0 11.2 11.4 1-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 33.1 29.1 25.3 10.2 0.3 -19.7 14.4 8.8 14 28.1 12.1 7.4 2.0 14.9 9.4 5.2 0.7 8.6 8.9 5.3 1.7 7.9 9.4 6.4 3,5 8.9 2-93 3-93 4-93 3.1 -0.1 -3.1 1.9 1.4 6.1 9.4 12.9 4.6 5,1 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments. Second quarter data are final estimates. 225.8 258.1 261.5 255.6 261.6 272.4 266.6 238.6 283.8 282.8 301.3 323.6 342.4 324.1 344.8 347.4 344.7 349.8 360.6 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2 ,1 9 9 5 Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow (Billions of Dollars) Period Corporate Profits(1) After-Tax ProfitsiD Capital Dividends Con Inventory Capital Valuation Consumption Adjustment Net Cash Flow 1990: 1 2 3 4 382.6 409.3 367.5 362.8 250.6 269.5 221.8 225.8 149.9 154.6 155.7 153.7 360.4 365.0 371.3 376.2 -2.0 8.9 -31.5 -19.5 35.8 31.4 22.8 13.5 463.1 471.0 468.9 467.9 1991: 1 2 3 4 385.4 391.5 389.6 394.7 258.1 261.5 255.6 261.6 158.0 159.4 161.6 160.9 380.7 382.4 384.1 386.1 10.4 12.1 1.4 -0.8 13.7 18.9 22.5 22.4 470.5 472.4 476.7 487.6 1992: 1 2 3 4 412.1 412.6 363.2 432.5 272.4 266.6 238.6 283.8 161.0 166.8 174.4 182.1 388.6 391.3 410.4 396.8 -4.0 -16.6 -7.3 2.1 19.0 15.8 10.9 16.9 504.0 507.9 481.8 496.5 1993: 1 2 3 4 442.5 473.1 493.5 533.9 282.8 301.3 323.6 342.4 188.2 190.7 193.2 194.6 402.3 404.8 413.3 411.1 -11.2 -10.0 3.0 -6.5 21.0 26.5 31.7 38.8 508.0 525.4 540.6 565.5 1994: 1 2 3 4 508.2 546.4 556.0 560.3 324.1 344.8 347.4 344.7 196.3 202.5 207.9 213.9 432.2 425.9 432.6 438.0 -12.3 -14.1 -19.6 -32.1 37.0 37.4 37.5 38.8 572.2 582.3 591.7 600.9 1995: 1 2 569.7 581.1 349.8 360.6 217.1 219.9 445.3 454.7 -39.0 -28.2 38.1 35.2 616.9 623.7 (1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment. The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption. Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis 24 Government Deficit( - )/ Surplus(+ ) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Government Debt (Billions of Dollars) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Period 1991: March June September December 1992: March June September December 1993: March June September December 1994: March June September December 1995: March June Gross Federal Debt Federal Debt held by Agencies and Trusts Net Federal Debt 3465.4 3539.0 3678.0 3785.6 881.3 885.5 922.7 959.4 2585.6 2655.2 2755.9 2822.4 252.4 254.2 267.8 274.2 2343.4 2409.1 2498.2 2560.2 462.0 475.0 481.2 488.1 3884.6 3984.8 4078.7 4157.2 980.3 998.0 1019.4 1036.8 2905.2 2989.9 3059.5 3116.5 273.1 275.7 299.7 294.9 2646.7 2723.9 2775.2 2835.9 505.8 532.0 538.9 545.4 4237.1 4351.4 4426.9 4512.2 1061.6 1089.4 1119.9 1140.6 3175.8 3266.0 3307.0 3367.4 311.4 326.5 329.0 336.1 2877.6 2950.0 2993.9 3042.4 562.0 570.7 595.2 618.0 4585.2 4644.5 4709.1 4774.7 1162.5 1191.9 1216.2 1242.9 3422.8 3456.8 3492.5 3527.7 349.4 355.6 358.7 365.9 3077.1 3099.8 3139.5 3162.1 629.6 636.7 659.9 682.9 4875.1 4949.7 1277.8 1304.8 3598.2 3649.2 376.6 386.6 3221.4 3256.4 726.6 788.3 Federal Debt held Federal Debt held by Federal by Private Reserve Banks Investors Federal Debt hel by Foreign Investors Columns m ay not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR E A S U R Y BULLETIN and also in the FE DER AL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 Government Budgets (Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis) Federal Period 1990: 1 2 3 4 Federal. State and Local Receipts Expenditures Surplus/ Deficit(-) 1091.3 1114.5 1123.7 1257.8 -166.4 1266.5 -152.0 -144.6 -191.0 1268.3 1306.9 Period 1990: 1 Receipts Expenditures Surplus/ Deficit(-) 1676.1 1808.0 1827.7 -131.9 -122.7 127.7 1848.6 -119.9 -179.3 -134.4 131.9 137.6 2 3 4 1705.0 1728.7 1726.5 I 131.9 1734.0 1744.7 1937.4 -192.8 1346.0 -207.6 -213.6 1991: 1 2 3 1905.8 1868.4 1768.5 1964.2 -195.8 1386.3 -245.8 4 1788.7 2009.4 -220.7 162.6 -279-9 1171.0 1435.6 1455.8 1813.5 1836.9 2073.5 2095.8 -260.0 -258.9 164.6 172.8 1166.5 1460.4 -293.9 1992: 1 2 3 1837.0 2110.5 -273.5 174.6 4 1219.9 1492.0 -272.1 4 1908.8 2147.9 -239.1 176.6 1993: 1 2 3 4 1994: 1 2 3 4 1995: 1 2 1212.7 1496.2 1263.7 1500.6 -283.5 -237.0 1993: 1 2 3 4 1994: 1 2 3 4 1995: 1 2 1901.0 1965.1 2162.9 2176.7 -261.9 -211.6 176.7 182.9 1980.9 2035.4 2181.9 -201.0 187.8 2221.0 -185.6 197.0 2066.5 2121.9 2217.6 2240.1 -151.1 -118.1 190.0 194.4 2138.8 2268.9 -130.1 200.3 2171.1 2303.4 -132.3 2211.2 2251.6 2331.7 1991: 1 1264.5 1329.4 3 1120.1 1121.8 1132.5 4 1140.5 1992: 1 2 3 1155.7 2 ¡1 -144.4 -284.8 1272.7 1497.6 1313.6 1533.7 1337.4 1380.7 1513.7 1525.9 *176.2 1388.8 1542.8 -154.0 1408.8 1569.9 -161.1 1441.0 1475.5 1589.6 1605.1 -148.6 -129.6 -224.9 -220.1 -145.1 144.3 151.7 154.7 205.5 * Fo o 1115.8 211.0 215.7 -106.2 2357.9 (1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total government measures. Federal Budgets Fiscal Years (Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis) Total Budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) 1994 1593 1592 1551 1530 $1,257.7 $1,153.5 1.408.7 $1,090.5 $1,054.3 1.323.4 $1,031.3 1.252.7 -269.2 -221.4 1. 460.9 -203.2 -255.1 1 ,380.9 -290.4 Calendar Years (Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis) National Income Account Budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit(-) 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 $1,379.0 $1,265.7 $1,178.3 $1,128.7 $1,111.4 1.538.1 1.507.0 1.460.9 1.331.6 1.274.9 -159.1 -241.4 -282.7 -202.9 -163.5 Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30. Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget. Estimate is Congressional Budget Office baseline projection from TH E E C O N O M IC & B U D G ET O UTLO O K: U PDA TE (August 1995). Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 26 Federal Government Receipts (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 5,9 6.4 1.6 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.6 4.6 3.8 5.1 4.9 5.6 5.7 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.2 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 0.6 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.6 2.7 5,0 4.1 5.5 5.2 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 3.9 3.4 4.0 4.4 3.2 5.7 4.6 6.1 5.8 6.5 6.6 7.2 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.1 2.9 4.1 4.6 3.0 6.1 4.7 6.5 6.0 00 3-90 -2.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 1.2 19 2.4 1.9 3,7 3.1 4.4 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.7 2 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 6.9 7.5 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.3 5.4 5.4 3.1 7.0 5.0 7.1 6.5 7.3 7.3 7.9 7.4 7.3 7.5 76 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5.4 1.9 7.5 4.9 7.4 6.6 7.6 7.6 8.2 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.8 -1.5 8.5 4.8 7.9 6.9 8.0 7.9 8.6 7.9 7.7 7.8 8.0 19.6 8.1 -2.3 11.3 7.3 9.1 5.8 10.0 7.7 9.5 7.6 10.1 8.6 7.7 9.1 8.7 7,5 8.8 7.7 8.9 7.9 17.9 10.1 11.2 10.3 10.9 9.5 8.9 9.0 9.1 2.9 8.1 7.9 9.3 7.8 7.5 7.8 8.1 13.5 10.4 11.5 9.1 8.5 8.6 8.8 7.4 10.5 7.7 7.2 7.7 8.1 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Second quarter data are final estimates. Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 13.6 7.8 7.2 7.7 8.2 2.4 4.1 5.9 6.9 5.9 7.7 8.4 9.5 9.7 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 9.9 1,115.8 1,120.1 1,121.8 1,132.5 1,140.5 1,155.7 1.171.0 1,166.5 1,219.9 1,212.7 1,263.7 1,272.7 1,313.6 1,337.4 1,380.7 1,388.8 1,408.8 1,441.0 1,475.5 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1995 Federal Government Expenditures (Compound Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-90 12.7 -0.6 6,5 6.1 7.4 8.6 8.2 7.3 7.5 6.8 6.3 5.7 6,0 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4-90 -12.4 3.5 4.0 6.1 7.8 7.5 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.1 5.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 22.2 13.3 13.0 13.5 11.9 10.1 9.9 8.8 7.9 7.0 7.3 6.2 6.0 5.8 5,9 5.9 5.8 5.1 8.7 10.8 9.5 7.8 8.0 7.0 6.2 5.4 5.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 12.5 13.8 n .o 8.5 8.6 7.3 6.4 5.5 6.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4,8 15.0 10.3 7.2 7.6 6.3 5.4 4.5 5.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 3-91 4-91 Initial Quarter 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5.7 3.5 5.3 4.2 3.6 2.9 3.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.5 1.3 5.0 3.7 3.1 2.3 3.5 2.3 2,4 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 8.9 5.0 3.7 2.5 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 1.1 1.2 0.5 2.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.0 1.2 0.2 3.4 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.2 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 -0.8 4.5 1.2 1.7 2.2 3.1 3.3 3,4 10.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.8 4.1 4.0 -5.1 -1 0 0.8 2.4 2.9 3,1 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Second quarter data are final estimates. Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 3.3 3.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.5 5.9 5.6 5.2 7.2 6.2 5,4 5.1 4.5 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 4.0 1,306.9 1,264.5 1,329.4 1,346.0 1,386.3 1,435.6 1,455.8 1,460.4 1,492.0 1,496.2 1,500.6 1,497.6 1,533.7 1,513.7 1,525.9 1,542.8 1,569.9 1,589.6 1,605.1 1-95 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loui; October 2, 1995 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.