Full text of National Economic Trends : November 2010
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NationalEconomicTrends November 2010 Mortality Rates and the Business Cycle L The strong negative correlation between unemployment ong ago, economist Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) stressed that mortality rates tended to rise sharply and the mortality rate is not unique to the United States. A in economic recessions.1 His explanation was that similar association exists in other developed countries. Ruhm reduced incomes lead to widespread malnutrition in economies notes, however, that the unfavorable effects of temporary where many people live at or near subsistence.2 In modern economic expansions on mortality tend to be offset if ecodeveloped economies, however, few people live in such nomic growth is long lasting (an increase in permanent income circumstances. Mortality rates no longer rise sharply in tends to reduce mortality). The most recent recession, which economic recessions. If anything, they now tend to fall. In was unusually severe by historical standards, indicates that other words, an economic boom may be bad for your health. the favorable effects of recessions on mortality might also The chart plots the unemployment and mortality rates in be offset during prolonged economic downturns. The chart the United States from 1965 to 2009. Over this period, unemshows that rising unemployment since 2007 has been accomployment and mortality had a negative correlation of about panied by a recent spike in mortality rates. 60 percent. According to these data, a 1-percentage-point —Rubén Hernández-Murillo and Christopher J. Martinek increase in the unemployment rate relative to its historical average leads to about 12,000 fewer deaths annually. 1 Malthus, Robert T. “An Essay on the Principle of Population.” Second Ed. Why does mortality now fall in bad economic times? 1803; www.gutenberg.org/files/4239/4239-h/4239-h.htm. Economist Christopher J. Ruhm suggests the main reason is 2 This statement forms the basis of Malthusian growth theory. that, during temporary downturns, the opportunity cost of 3 Ruhm, Christopher J. “Are Recessions Good for Your Health?” Quarterly leisure time falls and individuals opt for healthier lifestyles Journal of Economics, May 2000, 115(2), pp. 617-50. because they have more time to prepare healthier meals at 4 Miller, Douglas L.; Page, Marianne E.; Stevens, Ann Huff and Filipski, home, engage in physical activity, and visit the doctor.3 Mateusz. “Why Are Recessions Good for Your Health?” American Economic During expansions, the additional favorable opportunities in Review, May 2009, 99(2), pp. 122-27. the labor market increase the opportunity cost of leisure time, so individuals have less time for healthy activities such as dieting and exercise. Relationship between Unemployment Rates and Mortality Rates Ruhm notes that lifestyle changes are not the only 3 channel through which the business cycle affects mortality. For example, if health is an input in the production 2 of goods and services, then during expansions, as individuals work longer hours, hazardous working condi1 tions, exertion from employment, and job-related stress are more prevalent and may lead to more work-related 0 accidents. Factors outside the workplace, such as motor vehicle accidents, are also more common during upturns, –1 as improved economic conditions lead to more highway traffic. Between 1965 and 2009, motor vehicle –2 fatalities during recessions averaged 18.9 deaths per 100,000 individuals compared with 19.6 per 100,000 –3 during expansions. In fact, Douglas et al. recently found 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 that the bulk of the correlation in mortality and unemUnemployment Rate Mortality Rate Recessions ployment for adults of prime working age is explained NOTE: Mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 people) for 2008 and 2009 are preliminary estimates. Unemployment and mortality rates are detrended using a linear trend and normalized to have matching by a positive correlation between motor vehicle acciscales by subtracting the mean of the detrended variable and dividing by its standard deviation. SOURCE: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Centers for Disease Control and dents and the business cycle, not leisure choices or Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics; and Bureau of Labor Statistics. work-related factors.4 Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 29 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits FOMC Economic Projections Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 9 1.2 0.8 6 0.4 3 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.8 -3 -1.2 -6 -1.6 -9 -2.0 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 17167 2007 17532 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 6 2 1 5 10-Year Treasury 0 4 -1 3 3-Month Treasury -2 2 -3 1 -4 -5 0 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 600 11.2 400 10.2 200 9.2 0 8.2 -200 7.2 -400 6.2 -600 5.2 -800 4.2 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 85 8 5 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 10 1 0 1 1 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 15 Advance GDP (bar) 6 12 Second 4 Final Sales 2 Third 9 Annual Revision 0 6 -2 3 -4 0 -6 -8 -3 17532 2008 2009 17898 2010 18263 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 2 1 2009:3 18628 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) Compounded annual rates of change 62 8 56 6 0 50 -1 44 4 2 0 -2 38 ISM (right scale) -3 32 -4 -5 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 -2 -4 26 -6 20 -8 17532 18628 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 18628 34.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0.00 33.50 -0.25 33.25 -0.50 -0.75 33.00 -1.00 -1.25 32.75 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Real Change in Private Inventories 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2005 dollars Manufacturing and trade 120 1.50 80 1.46 40 1.42 0 1.38 -40 1.34 -80 1.30 -120 1.26 -160 -200 1.22 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 Consumption Imports 09Q4 10Q1 Exports Inventories 10Q2 10Q3 Government Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2008 2009 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Final Sales -4.46 -3.78 0.33 0.50 2.18 1.09 0.90 0.57 Consumption -2.26 -0.34 -1.12 1.41 0.69 1.33 1.54 1.79 Fixed Investment -4.01 -5.71 -1.26 0.12 -0.12 0.39 2.06 0.10 -2.84 -4.49 -0.72 -0.13 -0.10 0.71 1.51 0.91 -1.18 -1.22 -0.54 0.25 -0.02 -0.32 0.55 -0.80 0.31 -0.61 1.24 0.33 -0.28 -0.32 0.80 0.68 0.61 -0.40 1.11 0.45 0.01 0.15 0.72 0.71 -0.30 -0.21 0.13 -0.12 -0.29 -0.48 0.08 -0.03 Net Exports 1.50 2.88 1.47 -1.37 1.90 -0.31 -3.50 -2.01 Exports Imports -3.03 -3.61 -0.08 1.30 2.56 1.30 1.08 0.61 4.53 6.48 1.55 -2.67 -0.66 -1.61 -4.58 -2.61 -2.31 -1.09 -1.03 1.10 2.83 2.64 0.82 1.44 0.16 0.19 0.27 0.24 -0.04 0.03 -0.18 0.03 -6.77 -4.87 -0.70 1.60 5.01 3.73 1.72 2.01 Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Change in Inventory Residual Real GDP Growth 2010 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Week Ending: 10/29/2010 2.0 Oct 2010 1.5 1.0 Oct 2009 0.5 0.0 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 -2 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Excl. Food and Energy 2 All Items 0 -2 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 12 8 Excl. Food and Energy 4 0 PPI -4 -8 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 6 4 Dollars per million btu 156 48 132 40 GDP (bar) 108 2 0 84 Gross Domestic Purchases -2 36 -6 17532 17898 2010 18263 18628 Gas Futures (right scale) 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Futures prices as of 10/29/2010. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 15 10 10 16 8 Spot Gas (right scale) 12 2009 24 Oil Futures (left scale) 60 -4 2008 32 Spot Oil (left scale) PCE (bar) CPI (bar) 5 5 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -5 Excl. Food & Energy -5 -10 -10 -15 -20 -15 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 17532 2008 17898 2009 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 30 18 18263 2010 18628 Manufacturing (bar) 20 12 PPI (bar) 10 6 0 0 -10 Excl. Food & Energy -20 -6 Nonfarm -12 -30 -40 -18 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 17532 2008 17898 2009 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 6 18263 2010 18628 12 Benefits 5 9 Wages and Salaries 4 6 3 3 | | | | Compensation 2 1 0 -3 0 -6 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 10/08/10 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 -6 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 6.00 28 5.25 25 4.50 22 3.75 19 3.00 16 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 2.25 13 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 10 Median (right scale) 0.75 7 0.00 4 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/08/10 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 600 50 400 0 200 -50 0 -100 -200 -150 -400 -200 -600 -250 -800 -1000 -300 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 Change in Household Employment 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 1200 2.4 900 1.8 Pop. 90% Confidence 600 300 0 -300 1.2 0.6 Labor Force 0.0 -600 -0.6 -900 -1200 -1.2 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 16 12 9 14 11 8 90% Confidence Percent 10 12 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 9 10 7 6 8 5 8 Job Openings Rate (right scale) 7 Available Labor Supply 6 Unemployed 4 Want to Work 2 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 4 6 3 5 2 4 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 1 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 18993 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 85 8 5 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 10 1 0 1 1 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 15 18 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 10 0 9 -3 8 85 8 5 86 8 6 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 10 1 0 1 1 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 6 10 4 8 2 6 0 4 -2 2 0 -4 2008-01-01 2008 2009 2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2010 2011-01-01 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 Real Consumption Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 4.5 1.2 3.0 0.9 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.3 -3.0 -0.6 -4.5 -0.9 2008-01-01 2008 2009 2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2010 2011-01-01 2008-01-01 2008 2009-01-01 2009 2010-01-01 2010 2011-01-01 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 3 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 10 Total (bar) 1 27 Durables (bar) (left scale) 2 5 21 0 15 0 -1 -2 -5 Ex. Autos -3 9 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -10 -4 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) 17532 3 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 110 30.0 22.5 100 15.0 90 7.5 80 0.0 -7.5 70 -15.0 60 -22.5 50 -30.0 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2008-01-01 2008 2009-01-01 2009 2010-01-01 2010 2011-01-01 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 10 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 30 Equipment & Software 24 18 12 6 Nonresidential 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 30 40 20 30 20 10 09 09 10 10 11 Orders 10 0 0 -10 Equipment & Software Investment -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 2010 18628 -50 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 30 1.8 0.84 1.4 0.68 Millions, annual rate 20 10 New Home Sales (right scale) 0 1.0 -10 -20 0.6 -30 -40 0.52 0.36 Housing Starts (left scale) 0.2 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 17532 0.20 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2005 dollars Percent of GDP 2700 39 2400 Total Expenditures 2100 33 Total 1800 1500 Total Receipts 27 State & Local 1200 Fed. Expenditures 900 21 Federal 600 Fed. Receipts 300 15 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1996 1045.1 1022.1 23.0 1526.4 1674.7 -148.3 1453.1 1560.5 -107.4 1997 1099.5 1063.2 36.3 1656.2 1716.3 -60.1 1579.2 1601.1 -21.9 1998 1164.5 1117.6 46.9 1777.9 1744.3 33.6 1721.7 1652.5 69.3 1999 1240.4 1198.6 41.8 1895.0 1796.2 98.8 1827.5 1701.8 125.6 2000 1322.6 1281.3 41.3 2057.1 1871.9 185.2 2025.2 1789.0 236.2 2001 1374.0 1389.9 -15.9 2020.3 1979.8 40.5 1991.1 1862.9 128.2 2002 1412.7 1466.8 -54.1 1859.3 2112.1 -252.8 1853.1 2010.9 -157.8 2003 1496.3 1535.1 -38.8 1885.1 2261.5 -376.4 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6 2004 1601.0 1609.3 -8.3 2013.9 2393.4 -379.5 1880.1 2292.9 -412.7 2005 1730.4 1704.5 25.9 2290.1 2573.1 -283.0 2153.6 2472.0 -318.3 2006 1829.7 1778.6 51.1 2524.5 2728.3 -203.8 2406.9 2655.1 -248.2 2007 1923.1 1910.8 12.3 2654.7 2900.0 -245.3 2568.0 2728.7 -160.7 2008 1967.2 2014.6 -47.4 2503.1 3119.3 -616.2 2524.3 2982.9 -458.6 2009 2005.8 2025.9 -20.1 2205.8 3457.5 -1252 2105.0 3517.7 -1413 2008Q4 1948.1 2009.9 -61.8 2452.9 3132.9 -680.0 547.4 879.9 -332.5 2009Q1 1964.8 2006.4 -41.6 2223.9 3227.1 -1003 442.3 891.2 -448.9 2009Q2 1986.6 2020.2 -33.6 2191.2 3527.9 -1337 598.8 903.7 -304.9 2009Q3 2017.2 2036.4 -19.2 2176.3 3532.9 -1357 515.9 845.3 -329.4 2009Q4 2054.4 2040.6 13.8 2231.7 3542.0 -1310 487.8 875.8 -388.1 2010Q1 2095.7 2067.2 28.5 2322.8 3637.1 -1314 466.1 795.0 -328.9 2010Q2 2108.1 2092.4 15.7 2346.5 3701.2 -1355 643.1 930.1 -287.0 2010Q3 . 2095.8 . . 3751.0 . 564.8 854.8 -290.1 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 90 4 2 80 Total 0 70 -2 60 NIPA -4 50 Unified Budget -6 Held by Public 40 -8 30 -10 20 -12 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 16 1000 12 500 8 Excl. interest payments 0 Total Total -500 4 0 -1000 Held by Public -1500 -4 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 2007 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2235.3 2008 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2799.5 2009 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3575.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 March 8849.7 3795.4 5054.3 780.9 4273.1 2194.8 June 8867.7 3924.7 4943.0 790.5 4152.6 2192.0 September 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2235.3 December 9229.2 4092.9 5136.3 740.6 4395.7 2353.2 March 9437.6 4103.6 5334.0 591.2 4742.9 2505.8 June 9492.0 4207.0 5285.0 478.8 4806.2 2587.2 September 10024.7 4210.5 5814.2 476.6 5332.0 2799.5 December 10699.8 4327.2 6372.7 475.9 5893.4 3075.9 March 11126.9 4290.6 6836.3 492.3 6341.7 3264.6 June 11545.3 4368.8 7176.5 656.5 6518.5 3460.3 September 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3575.3 December 12311.4 4497.0 7814.4 776.6 7034.5 3691.5 March 12773.1 4478.9 8294.3 776.7 7513.3 3885.0 June 13201.8 4562.6 8639.2 777.0 7856.7 4005.0 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 8 60 40 6 Investment Income(left scale) 20 4 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -80 -4 -6 -100 -8 Goods and Services (left scale) -120 -140 -10 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 Exchange Rates 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 Goods Export Shares, 2009 UK 4.28% 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Goods Import Shares, 2009 Mexico 11.21% Mexico 12.06% China 18.81% UK 3.01% All Other 29.76% China 6.50% Japan 6.08% Japan 4.79% Germany 4.05% Germany 4.54% All Other 27.03% France 2.48% Canada 14.36% Other OECD 16.92% Canada 19.15% France 2.17% Other OECD 12.78% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/15/10 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 40 30 Goods and Services -12 20 -24 10 -36 0 -48 -10 -60 Exports -20 -72 Imports -30 Goods -84 -40 17532 2008 2009 17898 18263 2010 18628 17532 2008 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 2009 17898 18263 2010 18628 30 -40 20 -80 10 Imports -120 0 -160 Exports -10 -200 -240 -20 17532 2008 2009 17898 18263 2010 18628 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 8 12 4 6 0 0 -4 -6 -8 -12 -18 -12 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 08 2008 09 Canada 2009 10 2010 11 10 2010 11 10 2010 11 France 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 08 2008 09 Japan 2009 Mexico 16 8 0 -8 -16 -24 -32 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 08 2008 09 2009 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 10/18/10 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 10 11 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 20 8 16 6 12 4 8 2 4 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -4 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 18628 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 15 75 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 11 71 9 69 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 7 67 5 65 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 07/30/10 National Economic Trends June 2010 FOMC Projections Change in Real GDP (Q4/Q4) Percent 9 7 5 Actual 3 1 -1 -3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Long Run 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Long Run 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Long Run 2012 Long Run Unemployment Rate (Q4) Percent 11 9 7 Actual 5 3 2004 2005 2006 Change in PCE Price Index (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Change in PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy Prices (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 07/14/10 National Economic Trends FOMC Quarterly Projections for 2010 and 2011: A Timeline Change in Real GDP for 2010 Change in Real GDP for 2011 Percent Percent 6.0 6.0 4.5 4.5 3.0 3.0 Oct. 2008 1.5 June 2010 June 2010 Oct. 2007 1.5 0.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Unemployment Rate for 2010 (Q4) Unemployment Rate for 2011 (Q4) Percent Percent 12 2010 12 June 2010 10 10 8 8 6 6 Oct. 2008 June 2010 Oct. 2007 4 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Change in PCE Price Index for 2010 Change in PCE Price Index for 2011 Percent Percent 3 2010 3 June 2010 2 Oct. 2007 2 1 1 Oct. 2008 0 June 2010 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2010 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2011 Percent Percent 3 3 June 2010 2 June 2010 Oct. 2007 1 2 1 Oct. 2008 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2005 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 2.7 12917.095 . 2.6 . . 1.9 13200.021 . 2.2 . 27.725 . -0.0 13268.069 . 0.5 . -37.628 12880.611 . -2.6 12992.795 . -2.1 . -113.124 4.6 13089.316 0.9 1.3 13071.141 1.3 1.7 17.324 47.301 4.9 13194.148 3.2 1.8 13146.400 2.3 2.0 44.868 40.382 4.4 5.2 13268.458 2.3 2.3 13230.370 2.6 2.6 36.093 32.528 14291.3 3.8 5.0 13363.488 2.9 2.3 13352.175 3.7 2.5 12.617 27.726 14328.4 1.0 3.9 13339.175 -0.7 1.9 13346.167 -0.2 2.1 -8.231 21.337 2006. 13398.9 . 6.0 12976.249 . 2007. 14061.8 . 4.9 13228.853 2008. 14369.1 . 2.2 13228.848 2009. 14119.0 . -1.7 2007 1 13789.5 5.3 . 2 14008.2 6.5 . 3 14158.2 . 4 2008 1 59.423 . 2 14471.8 4.1 3.3 13359.046 0.6 1.2 13382.406 1.1 1.8 -20.570 4.977 . 3 14484.9 0.4 2.3 13223.507 -4.0 -0.3 13249.638 -3.9 0.1 -27.390 -10.894 . 4 14191.2 -7.9 -0.7 12993.665 -6.8 -2.8 13094.063 -4.6 -1.9 -94.321 -37.628 2009 1 14049.7 -3.9 -1.9 12832.619 -4.9 -3.8 12964.162 -3.9 -2.9 -125.799 -67.020 . 2 14034.5 -0.4 -3.0 12810.012 -0.7 -4.1 12971.411 0.2 -3.1 -161.784 -102.324 . 3 14114.7 2.3 -2.6 12860.800 1.6 -2.7 12984.468 0.4 -2.0 -128.213 -127.529 . 4 14277.3 4.7 13051.139 2.1 -0.3 -36.701 -113.124 0.6 13019.012 5.0 0.2 2010 1 14446.4 4.8 2.8 13138.832 3.7 2.4 13085.459 1.1 0.9 44.131 -70.642 . 2 14578.7 3.7 3.9 13194.862 1.7 3.0 13114.741 0.9 1.1 68.847 -12.984 . 3 14730.2 4.2 4.4 13260.654 2.0 3.1 13133.171 0.6 1.1 115.505 47.946 Consumption Billions of 2005 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Private Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2006. 9073.500 . 2.9 1150.416 . 4.1 2171.281 . 2.3 1453.944 . 7.9 2007. 9289.471 . 2.4 1198.550 . 4.2 2132.666 . -1.8 1552.020 . 6.7 2008. 9265.013 . -0.3 1136.430 . -5.2 1996.966 . -6.4 1556.598 . 0.3 2009. 9153.892 . -1.2 1094.557 . -3.7 1630.657 . -18.3 1290.786 . -17.1 2007 1 9235.175 2.4 2.8 1181.156 4.6 3.4 2127.670 -1.0 -3.3 1498.999 6.8 5.2 . 2 9270.456 1.5 2.6 1194.470 4.6 4.8 2147.243 3.7 -1.9 1539.104 11.1 6.1 . 3 9310.002 1.7 2.4 1205.662 3.8 4.6 2140.846 -1.2 -1.0 1574.072 9.4 7.4 . 4 9342.251 1.4 1.7 1212.910 2.4 3.9 2114.906 -4.8 -0.8 1595.905 5.7 8.2 2008 1 9324.067 -0.8 1.0 1178.646 -10.8 -0.2 2081.564 -6.2 -2.2 1603.661 2.0 7.0 . 2 9326.226 0.1 0.6 1169.997 -2.9 -2.0 2057.336 -4.6 -4.2 1597.027 -1.6 3.8 . 3 9243.479 -3.5 -0.7 1133.162 -12.0 -6.0 1993.318 -11.9 -6.9 1561.530 -8.6 -0.8 . 4 9166.282 -3.3 -1.9 1063.913 -22.3 -12.3 1855.646 -24.9 -12.3 1464.174 -22.7 -8.3 2009 1 9154.133 -0.5 -1.8 1076.587 4.9 -8.7 1663.435 -35.4 -20.1 1313.651 -35.2 -18.1 . 2 9116.975 -1.6 -2.2 1068.226 -3.1 -8.7 1619.634 -10.1 -21.3 1288.291 -7.5 -19.3 . 3 9161.603 2.0 -0.9 1118.302 20.1 -1.3 1622.421 0.7 -18.6 1282.875 -1.7 -17.8 . 4 9182.858 0.9 0.2 1115.113 -1.1 4.8 1617.136 -1.3 -12.9 1278.327 -1.4 -12.7 2010 1 9225.371 1.9 0.8 1138.938 8.8 5.8 1630.454 3.3 -2.0 1302.552 7.8 -0.8 . 2 9275.656 2.2 1.7 1157.837 6.8 8.4 1702.463 18.9 5.1 1355.305 17.2 5.2 . 3 9334.598 2.6 1.9 1175.184 6.1 5.1 1705.952 0.8 5.1 1387.168 9.7 8.1 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/29/10 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Employment Cost Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2006. 103.263 . 3.3 102.1 . 2.9 102.0 . 2.9 102.1 . 2.9 2007. 106.301 . 2.9 105.2 . 3.1 105.5 . 3.4 104.5 . 2.4 2008. 108.598 . 2.2 108.2 . 2.9 108.7 . 3.0 107.2 . 2.6 2009. 109.618 . 0.9 109.8 . 1.5 110.4 . 1.5 108.5 . 1.2 2007 1 105.366 4.4 3.2 103.9 2.3 3.1 104.3 3.9 3.6 103.1 -0.8 2.3 . 2 106.188 3.2 3.1 104.8 3.5 3.1 105.1 3.1 3.4 104.2 4.3 2.6 . 3 106.709 2.0 2.8 105.6 3.1 3.0 105.9 3.1 3.3 105.0 3.1 2.4 . 4 106.940 0.9 2.6 106.5 3.5 3.1 106.7 3.1 3.3 105.8 3.1 2.4 2008 1 107.454 1.9 2.0 107.2 2.7 3.2 107.6 3.4 3.2 106.5 2.7 3.3 . 2 108.295 3.2 2.0 108.0 3.0 3.1 108.4 3.0 3.1 107.0 1.9 2.7 . 3 109.488 4.5 2.6 108.6 2.2 2.8 109.1 2.6 3.0 107.5 1.9 2.4 . 4 109.154 -1.2 2.1 109.1 1.9 2.4 109.6 1.8 2.7 107.9 1.5 2.0 2009 1 109.465 1.1 1.9 109.3 0.7 2.0 109.8 0.7 2.0 108.1 0.7 1.5 . 2 109.555 0.3 1.2 109.6 1.1 1.5 110.1 1.1 1.6 108.3 0.7 1.2 . 3 109.759 0.7 0.2 110.0 1.5 1.3 110.5 1.5 1.3 108.6 1.1 1.0 . 4 109.693 -0.2 0.5 110.4 1.5 1.2 111.0 1.8 1.3 108.9 1.1 0.9 2010 1 109.959 1.0 0.5 111.1 2.6 1.6 111.4 1.4 1.5 110.4 5.6 2.1 . 2 110.485 1.9 0.8 111.6 1.8 1.8 111.9 1.8 1.6 111.0 2.2 2.5 . 3 111.108 2.3 1.2 112.1 1.8 1.9 112.4 1.8 1.7 111.6 2.2 2.8 Exports Billions of 2005 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2006. 1422.020 . 9.0 2151.204 . 6.1 100.914 . 0.9 103.769 . 3.8 2007. 1554.404 . 9.3 2209.290 . 2.7 102.517 . 1.6 107.924 . 4.0 2008. 1647.699 . 6.0 2151.749 . -2.6 103.582 . 1.0 111.475 . 3.3 2009. 1490.742 . -9.5 1853.766 . -13.8 107.212 . 3.5 113.544 . 1.9 2007 1 1496.360 6.4 7.7 2192.720 4.6 3.4 101.282 0.2 0.3 106.857 3.8 4.1 4.0 . 2 1521.264 6.8 7.7 2217.475 4.6 3.4 101.937 2.6 0.9 107.178 1.2 . 3 1577.995 15.8 11.6 2244.568 5.0 3.4 102.977 4.1 2.5 107.988 3.1 4.4 . 4 1621.999 11.6 10.1 2182.397 -10.6 0.7 103.881 3.6 2.6 109.674 6.4 3.6 2008 1 1644.695 5.7 9.9 2174.606 -1.4 -0.8 103.527 -1.4 2.2 110.950 4.7 3.8 . 2 1696.610 13.2 11.5 2190.400 2.9 -1.2 103.837 1.2 1.9 110.898 -0.2 3.5 . 3 1674.951 -5.0 6.1 2189.780 -0.1 -2.4 103.497 -1.3 0.5 111.898 3.7 3.6 . 4 1574.541 -21.9 -2.9 2052.211 -22.9 -6.0 103.477 -0.1 -0.4 112.202 1.1 2.3 2009 1 1451.598 -27.8 -11.7 1840.835 -35.3 -15.3 104.346 3.4 0.8 111.148 -3.7 0.2 . 2 1447.840 -1.0 -14.7 1789.850 -10.6 -18.3 106.467 8.4 2.5 113.587 9.1 2.4 . 3 1490.030 12.2 -11.0 1880.823 21.9 -14.1 108.276 7.0 4.6 114.543 3.4 2.4 . 4 1573.500 24.4 -0.1 1903.558 4.9 -7.2 109.862 6.0 6.2 114.983 1.5 2.5 2010 1 1616.422 11.4 11.4 1954.800 11.2 6.2 110.912 3.9 6.3 114.716 -0.9 3.2 . 2 1652.095 9.1 14.1 2101.053 33.5 17.4 110.411 -1.8 3.7 114.514 -0.7 0.8 . 3 1672.276 5.0 12.2 2187.161 17.4 16.3 . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 10/08/10 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 2005 . 141710 2470 . 1.8 133694 2275 . 1.7 102.8 . . 2.6 2006 . 144414 2704 . 1.9 136086 2392 . 1.8 105.8 . . 3.0 2007 . 146042 1629 . 1.1 137588 1503 . 1.1 107.3 . . 1.4 2008 . 145363 -680 . -0.5 136777 -812 . -0.6 105.9 . . -1.3 2009 . 139881 -5482 . -3.8 130911 -5866 . -4.3 98.8 . . -6.7 2008 1 146253 73 0.2 0.1 137897 35 0.1 0.5 107.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 . 2 146032 -221 -0.6 0.1 137491 -406 -1.2 -0.1 107.0 -0.4 -1.7 -0.5 . 3 145241 -791 -2.2 -0.5 136700 -791 -2.3 -0.7 105.7 -1.2 -4.5 -1.5 . 4 143924 -1317 -3.6 -1.5 135019 -1680 -4.8 -2.1 103.5 -2.1 -8.3 -3.8 2009 1 141587 -2337 -6.3 -3.2 132814 -2205 -6.4 -3.7 100.8 -2.6 -9.9 -6.2 . 2 140459 -1128 -3.1 -3.8 131112 -1702 -5.0 -4.6 98.7 -2.1 -8.0 -7.7 . 3 139339 -1120 -3.2 -4.1 130078 -1035 -3.1 -4.8 98.0 -0.7 -2.9 -7.3 . 4 138138 -1201 -3.4 -4.0 129639 -438 -1.3 -4.0 97.7 -0.3 -1.4 -5.6 2010 1 138626 488 1.4 -2.1 129697 58 0.2 -2.3 98.2 0.6 2.3 -2.5 . 2 139331 705 2.0 -0.8 130392 694 2.2 -0.5 99.1 0.9 3.7 0.4 . 3 139200 -131 -0.4 -0.1 130283 -108 -0.3 0.2 99.4 0.3 1.2 1.5 Sep 145021 -166 -1.4 -0.8 136283 -458 -3.9 -1.0 105.0 -1.0 -11.8 -2.1 2008 . Oct 144677 -344 -2.8 -0.8 135729 -554 -4.8 -1.5 104.5 -0.5 -5.6 -2.7 . Nov 143907 -770 -6.2 -1.8 135001 -728 -6.2 -2.1 103.4 -1.1 -11.9 -3.8 . Dec 143188 -719 -5.8 -2.0 134328 -673 -5.8 -2.6 102.5 -0.9 -10.0 -4.7 -5.2 2009 Jan 142221 -967 -7.8 -2.9 133549 -779 -6.7 -3.2 101.8 -0.7 -7.9 . Feb 141687 -534 -4.4 -3.1 132823 -726 -6.3 -3.7 100.8 -1.0 -11.2 -6.1 . Mar 140854 -833 -6.8 -3.6 132070 -753 -6.6 -4.2 99.8 -1.0 -11.3 -7.2 . Apr 140902 48 0.4 -3.7 131542 -528 -4.7 -4.5 99.2 -0.6 -7.0 -7.6 . May 140438 -464 -3.9 -3.8 131155 -387 -3.5 -4.6 98.9 -0.3 -3.6 -7.5 . Jun 140038 -400 -3.4 -3.9 130640 -515 -4.6 -4.8 98.1 -0.8 -9.3 -8.0 . Jul 139817 -221 -1.9 -3.9 130294 -346 -3.1 -4.9 98.2 0.1 1.2 -7.4 . Aug 139433 -384 -3.2 -4.0 130082 -212 -1.9 -4.9 98.0 -0.2 -2.4 -7.6 . Sep 138768 -665 -5.6 -4.3 129857 -225 -2.1 -4.7 97.8 -0.2 -2.4 -6.9 . Oct 138242 -526 -4.5 -4.4 129633 -224 -2.1 -4.5 97.2 -0.6 -7.1 -7.0 . Nov 138381 139 1.2 -3.8 129697 64 0.6 -3.9 97.9 0.7 9.0 -5.3 . Dec 137792 -589 -5.0 -3.8 129588 -109 -1.0 -3.5 97.9 0.0 0.0 -4.5 2010 Jan 138333 541 4.8 -2.7 129602 14 0.1 -3.0 98.2 0.3 3.7 -3.5 . Feb 138641 308 2.7 -2.1 129641 39 0.4 -2.4 98.0 -0.2 -2.4 -2.8 . Mar 138905 264 2.3 -1.4 129849 208 1.9 -1.7 98.5 0.5 6.3 -1.3 . Apr 139455 550 4.9 -1.0 130162 313 2.9 -1.0 99.0 0.5 6.3 -0.2 . May 139420 -35 -0.3 -0.7 130594 432 4.1 -0.4 99.3 0.3 3.7 0.4 . Jun 139119 -301 -2.6 -0.7 130419 -175 -1.6 -0.2 99.1 -0.2 -2.4 1.0 . Jul 138960 -159 -1.4 -0.6 130353 -66 -0.6 0.0 99.2 0.1 1.2 1.0 . Aug 139250 290 2.5 -0.1 130296 -57 -0.5 0.2 99.5 0.3 3.7 1.5 . Sep 139391 141 1.2 0.4 130201 -95 -0.9 0.3 99.6 0.1 1.2 1.8 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/01/10 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr 2005 . 5.1 4092.650 . . 6.5 95.2558 . . 3.2 3.15 4.29 2006 . 4.6 4312.711 . . 5.4 97.3910 . . 2.2 4.73 4.79 2007 . 4.6 4454.282 . . 3.3 100.0000 . . 2.7 4.35 4.63 2008 . 5.8 4409.379 . . -1.0 96.6917 . . -3.3 1.37 3.67 2009 . 9.3 4131.549 . . -6.3 87.7159 . . -9.3 0.15 3.26 3.66 2008 1 5.0 1125.390 -0.7 -2.6 2.3 99.8781 -0.4 -1.6 0.8 2.04 . 2 5.3 1131.023 0.5 2.0 2.1 98.3712 -1.5 -5.9 -1.8 1.63 3.89 . 3 6.0 1116.164 -1.3 -5.2 0.2 95.9030 -2.5 -9.7 -4.5 1.49 3.86 . 4 7.0 1036.802 -7.1 -25.5 -8.5 92.6147 -3.4 -13.0 -7.6 0.30 3.25 2009 1 8.2 1019.214 -1.7 -6.6 -9.4 88.2492 -4.7 -17.6 -11.6 0.21 2.74 . 2 9.3 1018.867 -0.0 -0.1 -9.9 85.8926 -2.7 -10.3 -12.7 0.17 3.31 . 3 9.6 1037.186 1.8 7.4 -7.1 87.6144 2.0 8.3 -8.6 0.16 3.52 . 4 10.0 1056.282 1.8 7.6 1.9 89.1076 1.7 7.0 -3.8 0.06 3.46 2010 1 9.7 1077.305 2.0 8.2 5.7 90.6482 1.7 7.1 2.7 0.11 3.72 . 2 9.7 1089.386 1.1 4.6 6.9 92.1931 1.7 7.0 7.3 0.15 3.49 . 3 9.6 1095.902 0.6 2.4 5.7 93.2738 1.2 4.8 6.5 0.16 2.79 2008 Oct 6.6 355.484 -3.1 -31.7 -5.3 93.8781 1.0 12.5 -6.1 0.67 3.81 . Nov 6.9 345.704 -2.8 -28.4 -9.0 92.9318 -1.0 -11.4 -7.4 0.19 3.53 Dec 7.4 -2.9 -29.9 -11.1 91.0342 -2.0 -21.9 -9.4 0.03 2.42 . 335.614 2009 Jan 7.7 341.617 1.8 23.7 -9.5 89.1316 -2.1 -22.4 -11.0 0.13 2.52 . Feb 8.2 341.390 -0.1 -0.8 -8.5 88.4567 -0.8 -8.7 -11.5 0.30 2.87 . Mar 8.6 336.207 -1.5 -16.8 -10.3 87.1592 -1.5 -16.2 -12.5 0.21 2.82 . Apr 8.9 336.671 0.1 1.7 -10.5 86.4726 -0.8 -9.1 -12.5 0.16 2.93 . May 9.4 338.785 0.6 7.8 -10.2 85.6975 -0.9 -10.2 -12.9 0.18 3.29 . Jun 9.5 343.411 1.4 17.7 -9.1 85.5076 -0.2 -2.6 -12.7 0.18 3.72 . Jul 9.4 343.518 0.0 0.4 -8.7 86.6896 1.4 17.9 -11.5 0.18 3.56 . Aug 9.7 351.128 2.2 30.1 -5.9 87.7569 1.2 15.8 -9.3 0.17 3.59 . Sep 9.8 342.540 -2.4 -25.7 -6.7 88.3967 0.7 9.1 -4.9 0.12 3.40 . Oct 10.1 348.321 1.7 22.2 -2.0 88.6350 0.3 3.3 -5.6 0.07 3.39 . Nov 10.0 353.863 1.6 20.9 2.4 89.1049 0.5 6.6 -4.1 0.05 3.40 . Dec 10.0 354.098 0.1 0.8 5.5 89.5830 0.5 6.6 -1.6 0.05 3.59 2010 Jan 9.7 355.197 0.3 3.8 4.0 90.4834 1.0 12.8 1.5 0.06 3.73 . Feb 9.7 357.272 0.6 7.2 4.7 90.4613 -0.0 -0.3 2.3 0.11 3.69 . Mar 9.7 364.836 2.1 28.6 8.5 90.9998 0.6 7.4 4.4 0.15 3.73 3.85 . Apr 9.9 365.997 0.3 3.9 8.7 91.4788 0.5 6.5 5.8 0.16 . May 9.7 362.219 -1.0 -11.7 6.9 92.5218 1.1 14.6 8.0 0.16 3.42 . Jun 9.5 361.170 -0.3 -3.4 5.2 92.5788 0.1 0.7 8.3 0.12 3.20 . Jul 9.5 362.829 0.5 5.7 5.6 93.2333 0.7 8.8 7.5 0.16 3.01 . Aug 9.6 365.403 0.7 8.9 4.1 93.3980 0.2 2.1 6.4 0.16 2.70 . Sep 9.6 367.670 0.6 7.7 7.3 93.1902 -0.2 -2.6 5.4 0.15 2.65 . Oct . . . . . . . . . 0.13 2.54 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 updated through 10/15/10 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Year to date Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 2005 . 195.267 . . 3.4 . 200.867 . . 2.1 . 155.8 . . 4.9 2006 . 201.550 . . 3.2 . 205.942 . . 2.5 . 160.3 . . 2.9 2007 . 207.335 . . 2.9 . 210.729 . . 2.3 . 166.6 . . 3.9 2008 . 215.247 . . 3.8 . 215.568 . . 2.3 . 177.2 . . 6.4 2009 . 214.549 . . -0.3 . 219.236 . . 1.7 . 172.7 . . -2.5 2008 1 212.824 1.1 4.7 4.2 4.7 213.951 0.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 174.3 2.2 9.0 7.2 . 2 215.557 1.3 5.2 4.3 4.9 214.985 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.2 178.9 2.6 11.0 7.7 . 3 218.909 1.6 6.4 5.3 5.4 216.501 0.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 182.5 2.0 8.3 9.4 . 4 213.698 -2.4 -9.2 1.6 1.6 216.834 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.0 173.0 -5.2 -19.3 1.4 2009 1 212.493 -0.6 -2.2 -0.2 -2.2 217.670 0.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 170.6 -1.4 -5.5 -2.2 . 2 213.473 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.2 218.934 0.6 2.3 1.8 1.9 171.6 0.6 2.5 -4.1 . 3 215.417 0.9 3.7 -1.6 1.1 219.752 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 173.0 0.8 3.2 -5.2 . 4 216.813 0.6 2.6 1.5 1.5 220.590 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 175.6 1.5 6.2 1.5 2010 1 217.636 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.5 220.569 -0.0 -0.0 1.3 -0.0 179.3 2.1 8.5 5.1 . 2 217.244 -0.2 -0.7 1.8 0.4 221.064 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 179.1 -0.1 -0.4 4.3 . 3 218.040 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 221.745 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 179.4 0.2 0.8 3.7 Sep 218.846 0.0 0.4 5.0 4.7 216.783 0.1 1.3 2.5 2.3 182.0 0.1 0.7 8.9 2008 . Oct 216.832 -0.9 -10.5 3.7 3.1 216.768 -0.0 -0.1 2.2 2.0 177.3 -2.6 -26.9 5.3 . Nov 212.923 -1.8 -19.6 1.0 0.8 216.873 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.9 172.3 -2.8 -29.1 0.2 . Dec 211.339 -0.7 -8.6 -0.0 -0.0 216.860 -0.0 -0.1 1.7 1.7 169.4 -1.7 -18.4 -1.2 2009 Jan 211.959 0.3 3.6 -0.1 3.6 217.249 0.2 2.2 1.7 2.2 171.2 1.1 13.5 -1.2 . Feb 212.877 0.4 5.3 0.1 4.4 217.674 0.2 2.4 1.8 2.3 170.9 -0.2 -2.1 -1.7 . Mar 212.643 -0.1 -1.3 -0.4 2.5 218.086 0.2 2.3 1.8 2.3 169.6 -0.8 -8.8 -3.5 . Apr 212.810 0.1 0.9 -0.6 2.1 218.617 0.2 3.0 1.9 2.5 170.6 0.6 7.3 -3.3 . May 213.050 0.1 1.4 -1.0 2.0 218.920 0.1 1.7 1.8 2.3 170.6 0.0 0.0 -4.6 1.9 1.7 2.2 173.7 1.8 24.1 -4.3 . Jun 214.558 0.7 8.8 -1.3 3.1 219.265 0.2 . Jul 214.774 0.1 1.2 -2.0 2.8 219.533 0.1 1.5 1.6 2.1 171.6 -1.2 -13.6 -6.6 . Aug 215.566 0.4 4.5 -1.5 3.0 219.687 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.0 174.1 1.5 19.0 -4.3 . Sep 215.911 0.2 1.9 -1.3 2.9 220.035 0.2 1.9 1.5 2.0 173.3 -0.5 -5.4 -4.8 . Oct 216.357 0.2 2.5 -0.2 2.9 220.459 0.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 173.6 0.2 2.1 -2.1 . Nov 216.859 0.2 2.8 1.8 2.9 220.546 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 176.2 1.5 19.5 2.3 . Dec 217.224 0.2 2.0 2.8 2.8 220.764 0.1 1.2 1.8 1.8 177.1 0.5 6.3 4.5 2010 Jan 217.587 0.2 2.0 2.7 2.0 220.463 -0.1 -1.6 1.5 -1.6 179.4 1.3 16.7 4.8 . Feb 217.591 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.0 220.579 0.1 0.6 1.3 -0.5 178.5 -0.5 -5.9 4.4 . Mar 217.729 0.1 0.8 2.4 0.9 220.664 0.0 0.5 1.2 -0.2 179.9 0.8 9.8 6.1 . Apr 217.579 -0.1 -0.8 2.2 0.5 220.768 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 179.7 -0.1 -1.3 5.3 . May 217.224 -0.2 -1.9 2.0 0.0 221.037 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.3 179.1 -0.3 -3.9 5.0 . Jun 216.929 -0.1 -1.6 1.1 -0.3 221.388 0.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 178.4 -0.4 -4.6 2.7 . Jul 217.597 0.3 3.8 1.3 0.3 221.676 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.7 178.7 0.2 2.0 4.1 . Aug 218.150 0.3 3.1 1.2 0.6 221.779 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 179.4 0.4 4.8 3.0 . Sep 218.372 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 221.781 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 180.2 0.4 5.5 4.0 Research Division 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Second, and Third GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2005 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Pages 22, 23: The economic projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are published four times a year. Except for the unemployment rate, the projections for the current and following years are on a Q4/Q4 horizon. The shaded area represents the range of the economic projections of the FOMC members, and the dot signifies the mid-point of the ranges. The projections of the changes in the total PCE price index and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) are presumed to converge over time. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 29
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