Full text of National Economic Trends : November 2008
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NationalEconomicTrends November 2008 Predicting Consumption: A Lesson in Real-Time Data C to a researcher at the time of the estimate. The approximated ontinuing crises in U.S. housing and financial markets have increased concerns about an impending recesmeasure for 2008:Q3 is –2.3 percent, suggesting the first sion, which typically involves two quarters of negative decline in PCE since the fourth quarter of 1991. On average, GDP growth. All recessions since the early 1950s, except the the second-month PCE is close to the reported quarterly data; one in 2001, included a contraction in personal consumption however, it under predicts the advance release by an average expenditures (PCE). Because roughly 70 percent of the of 0.15 percentage points over the sample. The correlation country’s GDP can be attributed to PCE on goods and servbetween the two series in the chart is 0.90. ices, any contraction in consumption expenditures weighs Most of the difference between the two series disappears heavily on economic growth. when data are revised. In fact, the actual quarterly PCE growth The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) measures GDP rate and the approximation using second-month data is and, two months after the end of each quarter, releases its GDP almost perfect, differing by only 0.03 percentage points when estimates for that quarter.1 In addition to releasing data on both growth rates are computed using current data. In sumtotal output, the BEA releases data on each component of mary, this simple calculation can provide a quite accurate GDP: PCE, investment, government expenditures, and net picture of the quarterly consumption growth rate a month exports. Unlike the other components, PCE estimates are ahead of the BEA’s first official release. In addition, the use also released monthly as part of the BEA’s “Personal Income of real-time (or unrevised) data is essential for evaluating and Outlays” report. Quarterly PCE is the average of monthly the performance of this or any calculation. PCE over the three months in the quarter, and both monthly —Riccardo DiCecio and Charles S. Gascon and quarterly data are subsequently revised multiple times. 1 Both the GDP and the “Personal Income and Outlays” releases are available These monthly PCE releases have been spotlighted at http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm. The current release schedule for the recently: As it turns out, the PCE measure for the second National Economic Accounts is available at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/ month of a given quarter is close to the measure for the news_release_sort_national.htm. entire quarter. For example, the PCE for February 2008 (reported March 28) was Annualized Growth Rate of Real Personal Consumption Expenditures $8,365.5 billion; the advance release of 2008:Q1 PCE (reported May 1) was 10 $8,369.1 billion. The rationale for using the second month as a proxy for a quar8 ter’s average is simple: It is available sooner—one month before the advance 6 release of the quarterly figure. It is also 4 quite reliable: On average, the economy tends to grow; if the growth rate of con2 sumption from month to month within a quarter is constant, the PCE for the sec0 ond month is close to that quarter’s average. –2 Second-Month Estimate The chart plots the approximated Reported (second-month) and actual growth rates –4 of PCE since 1991 using real-time data: 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 That is, the growth rates at each point NOTE: At time of publication, the actual 2008:Q3 data had not been reported by the BEA; only the second-month estimate is reported in the chart. on the chart are computed using only SOURCE: Authors’ calculations with real-time ALFRED data; http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/. the data that would have been available Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 1.6 8 1.2 6 0.8 4 0.4 2 0 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.8 -2 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 16437 2005 16802 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 6 1.5 1.0 10-Year Treasury 5 0.5 0.0 4 3-Month Treasury -0.5 3 -1.0 -1.5 2 -2.0 1 -2.5 -3.0 0 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 400 6.2 300 5.7 200 100 5.2 0 4.7 -100 -200 4.2 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 8 8 6 Advance Preliminary 6 Final Annual Revision 5 Final Sales 4 7 4 3 2 2 1 0 GDP (bar) 0 -2 -1 16802 2006 17167 2007 2008 17532 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 68 ISM (right scale) 62 0.6 56 0.0 50 -0.6 44 Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) -1.2 38 -1.8 32 -2.4 26 -3.0 20 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index 1.8 1.2 2007:3 17898 Compounded annual rates of change 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16802 17898 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 1.00 34.25 0.75 0.50 34.00 0.25 0.00 33.75 -0.25 -0.50 33.50 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Real Change in Private Inventories 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2000 dollars Manufacturing and trade 80 1.34 60 1.32 40 1.30 20 0 1.28 -20 1.26 -40 1.24 -60 -80 1.22 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 08Q3 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2006 2007 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Final Sales 2.91 1.11 4.32 4.07 0.79 0.89 4.33 -0.81 Consumption 2.55 2.71 1.42 1.44 0.67 0.61 0.87 -2.25 -1.27 -0.57 0.47 -0.15 -0.97 -0.86 -0.25 -0.83 Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local 2008 -0.09 0.33 1.07 0.91 0.36 0.26 0.27 -0.11 -1.18 -0.91 -0.60 -1.06 -1.33 -1.12 -0.52 -0.72 0.30 0.17 0.77 0.75 0.16 0.38 0.78 1.15 0.12 -0.26 0.47 0.51 -0.04 0.41 0.47 0.97 0.18 0.43 0.30 0.24 0.19 -0.03 0.31 0.18 Net Exports 1.33 -1.20 1.66 2.03 0.94 0.77 2.93 1.13 Exports Imports 1.66 0.06 1.01 2.54 0.53 0.63 1.54 0.78 -0.33 -1.25 0.65 -0.51 0.40 0.14 1.39 0.35 Change in Inventory -1.41 -1.06 0.47 0.69 -0.96 -0.02 -1.50 0.56 Residual -0.22 -0.24 -0.15 -0.24 -0.34 -0.10 0.02 0.26 1.50 0.05 4.79 4.76 -0.17 0.87 2.83 -0.25 Real GDP Growth Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 5.0 Oct 2007 4.5 4.0 3.5 Week Ending: 10/31/2008 3.0 Oct 2008 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 10/31/08 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Excl. Food and Energy 2 All Items 0 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 12 8 Excl. Food and Energy 4 0 PPI -4 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 5 Gross Domestic Purchases 4 48 132 40 3 108 2 84 1 60 0 Spot Oil (left scale) 36 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 2004 2005 Gas Futures (right scale) 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: Futures prices as of 10/31/2008. 2007 2008 2008 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 15 12 10 24 8 Spot Gas (right scale) 12 2006 32 Oil Futures (left scale) 16 GDP (bar) -1 Dollars per million btu 156 2009 2009 0 2010 8 PCE (bar) CPI (bar) 5 4 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -5 Excl. Food & Energy -4 -10 -8 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 16802 2006 2007 17167 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 40 18 30 17532 2008 17898 12 PPI (bar) 20 6 Nonfarm 10 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -10 Manufacturing (bar) -6 -20 -12 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 16802 2006 17167 2007 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 17532 2008 17898 15 8 Benefits 12 6 9 Compensation 4 6 3 2 Wages and Salaries 0 0 -3 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 10/03/08 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 70 15 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 4.50 16 3.75 14 3.00 12 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 375 20 300 10 0 225 -10 150 -20 75 -30 0 -40 -75 -50 -150 -60 -225 -70 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Change in Household Employment 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 2.0 800 600 1.5 400 90% Confidence 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Pop. 1.0 0.5 Labor Force 0.0 -800 -1000 -0.5 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Available Labor Supply and Components 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 10 7.0 Percent 4.5 9 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 6.5 8 Available Labor Supply 90% Confidence 2006 6.0 7 6 4.0 3.5 5.5 3.0 5.0 2.5 5 Unemployed 4 4.5 2.0 Job Openings Rate (right scale) 3 Want to Work 4.0 2 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 1.5 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 2009 17898 18263 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 10 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/31/08 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Real Consumption 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 6.0 0.9 4.5 0.6 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.3 -3.0 -4.5 -0.6 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 16802 2006 2007 17167 17532 2008 17898 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change Millions of vehicles, annual rate 20 6 4 3 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) 4 Ex. Autos 2 18 2 16 0 14 1 0 Durables (bar) (left scale) -2 -1 12 Total (bar) -2 10 -4 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 110 22.5 100 15.0 90 7.5 80 0.0 70 -7.5 60 50 -15.0 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 Nonresidential 5 0 -5 -10 -15 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 -5 -10 -10 07 07 08 08 09 Orders Equipment & Software Investment -20 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 24 24 18 18 12 12 6 6 0 0 -6 2008 17898 -6 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Real Residential Fixed Investment 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 20 2.6 1.32 2.2 1.16 10 Millions, annual rate 1.00 1.8 0 Housing Starts (left scale) 1.4 -10 New Home Sales (right scale) 1.0 -20 0.84 0.68 0.6 -30 0.52 0.2 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 16802 0.36 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2000 dollars Percent of GDP 2400 35 Total Expenditures 2100 30 1800 Total Total Receipts 1500 25 1200 Fed. Expenditures State & Local 900 20 Federal 600 Fed. Receipts 300 15 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local 1991 Federal Federal Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) 789.2 793.3 -4.1 1101.3 1315.0 -213.7 1055.1 1324.3 -269.2 -290.3 Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1992 845.7 845.0 0.7 1147.2 1444.6 -297.4 1091.3 1381.6 1993 886.9 886.0 0.9 1222.5 1496.0 -273.5 1154.5 1409.5 -255.1 1994 942.9 932.4 10.5 1320.8 1533.1 -212.3 1258.7 1461.9 -203.2 1995 990.2 978.2 12.0 1406.5 1603.5 -197.0 1351.9 1515.9 -164.0 1996 1043.3 1017.5 25.8 1524.0 1665.8 -141.8 1453.2 1560.6 -107.4 1997 1097.4 1058.3 39.1 1653.1 1708.9 -55.8 1579.4 1601.3 -21.9 1998 1163.2 1111.2 52.0 1773.8 1734.9 38.9 1722.0 1652.7 69.3 1999 1236.7 1186.3 50.4 1891.2 1787.6 103.6 1827.6 1702.0 125.6 2000 1319.5 1269.5 50.0 2053.8 1864.4 189.4 2025.5 1789.2 236.2 2001 1373.0 1368.2 4.8 2016.2 1969.5 46.7 1991.4 1863.2 128.2 2002 1410.1 1444.3 -34.2 1853.2 2101.1 -247.9 1853.4 2011.2 -157.8 -377.6 2003 1494.2 1514.5 -20.3 1879.9 2252.1 -372.2 1782.5 2160.1 2004 1594.3 1592.8 1.5 2008.9 2379.5 -370.6 1880.3 2293.0 -412.7 2005 1714.4 1684.9 29.5 2266.9 2558.6 -291.7 2153.9 2472.2 -318.3 2006 1811.4 1765.3 46.1 2510.4 2711.6 -201.2 2407.3 2655.4 -248.2 2007 1902.8 1892.4 10.4 2651.2 2880.5 -229.3 2567.7 2729.2 -161.5 2006Q4 1828.4 1796.6 31.8 2568.6 2721.8 -153.2 573.5 653.9 -80.4 2007Q1 1877.5 1854.3 23.2 2612.8 2837.9 -225.1 547.4 725.4 -178.0 2007Q2 1909.8 1874.0 35.8 2648.1 2859.5 -211.4 824.4 686.9 137.5 2007Q3 1905.5 1900.7 4.8 2664.9 2909.2 -244.3 622.3 662.9 -40.6 2007Q4 1918.4 1940.7 -22.3 2679.2 2915.6 -236.4 606.2 713.0 -106.8 -205.9 2008Q1 1922.9 1975.3 -52.4 2672.5 3003.2 -330.7 539.8 745.7 2008Q2 1955.4 2022.3 -66.9 2488.4 3128.4 -640.0 787.9 761.0 26.9 . 2050.0 . 3139.6 . 590.0 758.9 -169.0 2008Q3 . Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 20 -8 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 8 750 6 500 4 250 Total 2 0 0 -250 Excl. interest payments Total Held by Public -500 -2 -750 -4 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 2005 7932.7 3331.1 4601.6 736.4 3864.9 1930.6 2006 8507.0 3663.8 4843.2 768.9 4074.2 2027.3 2007 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2237.2 March 7776.9 3204.5 4572.4 717.3 3855.4 1956.3 June 7836.5 3308.9 4527.6 724.7 3803.0 1879.6 September 7932.7 3331.1 4601.6 736.4 3864.9 1930.6 December 8170.4 3455.8 4714.6 744.2 3970.6 2036.0 March 8371.2 3498.4 4872.8 758.5 4114.0 2084.5 June 8420.0 3622.6 4797.5 766.4 4030.8 1979.8 September 8507.0 3663.8 4843.2 768.9 4074.2 2027.3 December 8680.2 3779.0 4901.2 778.9 4122.1 2105.0 March 8849.7 3795.4 5054.3 780.9 4273.1 2196.7 June 8867.7 3924.7 4943.0 790.5 4152.6 2193.9 September 9007.7 3958.4 5049.2 779.6 4269.7 2237.2 December 9229.2 4092.9 5136.3 740.6 4395.7 2355.1 March 9437.6 4103.6 5334.0 591.2 4742.9 2515.6 June 9492.0 4207.0 5285.0 478.8 4806.2 2648.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 6 40 Investment Income (left scale) 20 4 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -80 -4 -6 Goods and Services (left scale) -100 -8 -120 -10 -140 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Exchange Rates 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 Goods Export Shares, 2007 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Goods Import Shares, 2007 UK 4.37% Mexico 10.71% Mexico 11.85% All Other 26.76% China 16.33% UK 2.89% China 5.68% Japan 7.39% Japan 5.46% Germany 4.32% All Other 27.24% Germany 4.79% France 2.39% Other OECD 17.50% Canada 21.67% Canada 16.11% France 2.11% Other OECD 12.43% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/10/08 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 25 0 -12 20 -24 Exports 15 Goods and Services -36 -48 10 -60 5 -72 Imports Goods -84 0 16802 2006 2007 17167 17532 2008 17898 16802 2006 17167 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 2007 17532 2008 17898 25 -40 20 Exports -80 15 -120 10 -160 Imports 5 -200 -240 0 16802 2006 2007 17167 17532 2008 17898 16802 2006 17167 2007 17532 2008 17898 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 6 9 4 6 2 3 0 0 -3 -2 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 06 2006 07 Canada 2007 08 2008 09 08 2008 09 08 2008 09 France 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 06 2006 07 Japan 2007 Mexico 6 12 4 8 2 4 0 0 -2 -4 -4 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 06 2006 07 2007 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 10/16/08 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 07 08 08 09 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 9 9 6 6 3 3 0 0 -3 -3 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 2006 16802 2007 17167 2008 17532 17898 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 75 15 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 71 11 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 9 69 67 7 65 5 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 10/30/08 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 2004. 2005. 11685.9 2006. 2007. 13178.4 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 6.6 10675.757 . 6.3 10989.508 . 6.1 11294.816 13807.5 . 4.8 2005 1 12155.4 7.1 . 2 12297.5 . 3 12538.2 . 4 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 3.6 10619.790 . 2.9 10947.255 . 2.8 11249.341 11523.944 . 2.0 6.6 10875.827 3.0 4.8 5.9 10946.117 8.1 6.4 11049.980 12696.4 5.1 6.3 2006 1 12959.6 8.6 . 2 13134.1 5.5 . 3 13249.6 . 4 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2000 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago . 3.3 . 54.268 . 3.1 . 38.946 . 2.8 . 42.301 11523.416 . 2.4 . -2.480 3.2 10799.286 2.3 2.8 74.596 64.179 2.6 2.9 10925.879 4.8 3.4 16.724 52.139 3.8 3.0 11035.489 4.1 3.5 11.001 39.875 11086.107 1.3 2.7 11028.364 -0.3 2.7 53.464 38.946 6.6 11217.261 4.8 3.1 11167.646 5.1 3.4 45.924 31.778 6.8 11291.674 2.7 3.2 11232.065 2.3 2.8 56.922 41.828 3.6 5.7 11314.057 0.8 2.4 11257.833 0.9 2.0 53.270 52.395 13370.1 3.7 5.3 11356.368 1.5 2.4 11339.723 2.9 2.8 13.086 42.301 2007 1 13510.9 4.3 4.3 11357.840 0.1 1.3 11370.469 1.1 1.8 -15.044 27.059 . 2 13737.5 6.9 4.6 11491.351 4.8 1.8 11490.523 4.3 2.3 -2.821 12.123 . 3 13950.6 6.4 5.3 11625.746 4.8 2.8 11605.013 4.0 3.1 16.001 2.806 . 4 14031.2 2.3 4.9 11620.739 -0.2 2.3 11627.950 0.8 2.5 -8.058 -2.481 12421.9 2008 1 14150.8 3.5 4.7 11645.968 0.9 2.5 11653.718 0.9 2.5 -10.182 -1.265 . 2 14294.5 4.1 4.1 11727.351 2.8 2.1 11778.847 4.4 2.5 -50.550 -13.197 . 3 14429.2 3.8 3.4 11719.988 -0.3 0.8 11755.227 -0.8 1.3 -38.480 -26.818 Consumption Billions of 2000 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Private Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2004. 2005. 7561.380 . 3.6 1084.786 . 6.3 1712.757 . 7.3 1144.264 . 5.8 7791.732 . 3.0 1134.384 . 4.6 1829.815 . 6.8 1226.160 . 7.2 2006. 2007. 8028.958 . 3.0 1185.122 . 4.5 1865.493 . 1.9 1318.159 . 7.5 . 2.8 1242.395 . 4.8 1808.543 . -3.1 1382.929 . 4.9 2005 1 7697.515 1.7 3.0 1111.627 0.6 4.3 1790.510 5.3 8.7 1200.397 3.7 9.2 . 2 7766.392 3.6 3.3 1143.717 12.1 6.8 1823.502 7.6 7.3 1218.952 6.3 8.1 . 3 7838.099 3.7 3.3 1158.894 5.4 6.2 1847.243 5.3 6.4 1237.089 6.1 6.6 . 4 7864.922 1.4 2.6 1123.291 -11.7 1.2 1857.972 2.3 5.1 1248.226 3.6 4.9 2006 1 7947.412 4.3 3.2 1173.061 18.9 5.5 1895.228 8.3 5.8 1295.218 15.9 7.9 . 2 8002.135 2.8 3.0 1178.310 1.8 3.0 1883.072 -2.5 3.3 1315.436 6.4 7.9 . 3 8046.346 2.2 2.7 1188.386 3.5 2.5 1859.953 -4.8 0.7 1332.661 5.3 7.7 . 4 8119.940 3.7 3.2 1200.722 4.2 6.9 1823.721 -7.6 -1.8 1329.322 -1.0 6.5 2007 1 8197.173 3.9 3.1 1227.322 9.2 4.6 1807.821 -3.4 -4.6 1340.423 3.4 3.5 8252.773 . 2 8237.272 2.0 2.9 1242.274 5.0 5.4 1821.269 3.0 -3.3 1373.787 10.3 4.4 . 3 8278.517 2.0 2.9 1249.405 2.3 5.1 1816.954 -0.9 -2.3 1402.876 8.7 5.3 . 4 8298.196 1.0 2.2 1250.580 0.4 4.2 1788.160 -6.2 -1.9 1414.655 3.4 6.4 2008 1 8316.055 0.9 1.5 1237.008 -4.3 0.8 1762.404 -5.6 -2.5 1423.095 2.4 6.2 . 2 8341.328 1.2 1.3 1228.280 -2.8 -1.1 1754.899 -1.7 -3.6 1431.818 2.5 4.2 . 3 8275.215 -3.1 -0.0 1182.532 -14.1 -5.4 1729.815 -5.6 -4.8 1428.343 -1.0 1.8 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 10/31/08 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 2004. 2005. 109.462 2006. 2007. 116.676 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Employment Cost Index Index ECI: Wages Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index . 3.8 96.8 99.2 ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index . 2.9 96.2 . 3.3 99.2 . 3.1 . 3.2 102.1 . 2.9 102.1 119.819 . 2.7 105.2 . 3.1 2005 1 111.778 4.0 3.3 98.2 3.8 . 2 112.357 2.1 2.9 98.8 . 3 113.487 4.1 3.4 99.5 . 4 114.536 3.7 3.5 100.2 2006 1 115.536 3.5 3.4 100.8 2.4 2.6 100.8 2.8 2.5 100.8 2.0 2.9 . 2 116.317 2.7 3.5 101.6 3.2 2.8 101.6 3.2 2.8 101.6 3.2 2.8 . 3 117.109 2.8 3.2 102.5 3.6 3.0 102.5 3.6 3.1 102.5 3.6 2.8 . 4 117.742 2.2 2.8 103.3 3.2 3.1 103.3 3.2 3.2 103.4 3.6 3.1 2007 1 118.935 4.1 2.9 104.0 2.7 3.2 104.3 3.9 3.5 103.1 -1.2 2.3 . 2 119.531 2.0 2.8 104.8 3.1 3.1 105.1 3.1 3.4 104.2 4.3 2.6 . 3 119.984 1.5 2.5 105.6 3.1 3.0 105.9 3.1 3.3 105.0 3.1 2.4 . 4 120.826 2.8 2.6 106.5 3.5 3.1 106.7 3.1 3.3 105.8 3.1 2.3 2008 1 121.613 2.6 2.3 107.3 3.0 3.2 107.6 3.4 3.2 106.4 2.3 3.2 . 2 121.951 1.1 2.0 107.9 2.3 3.0 108.4 3.0 3.1 106.9 1.9 2.6 . 3 123.203 4.2 2.7 108.6 2.6 2.8 109.0 2.2 2.9 107.5 2.3 2.4 113.039 Exports Billions of 2000 $ 2004. 1126.134 2005. 1205.274 . 2.7 94.8 . 6.8 . 2.5 99.2 . 4.6 . 2.9 102.1 . 2.9 105.5 . 3.4 104.5 . 2.4 3.5 98.3 2.5 2.6 98.0 6.4 5.5 2.5 3.1 98.8 2.1 2.5 98.8 3.3 4.7 2.9 2.9 99.4 2.5 2.3 99.7 3.7 4.5 2.8 3.0 100.1 2.8 2.5 100.3 2.4 3.9 Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 9.7 1719.939 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Year Annual rate ago Percent change Year Annual rate ago . 11.3 131.571 . 2.8 155.899 . 3.6 . 5.9 133.887 . 1.8 162.179 . 4.0 135.180 168.367 Index . 7.0 1821.900 2006. 1314.848 2007. 1425.912 . 9.1 1930.515 . 6.0 . 1.0 . 3.8 . 8.4 1972.412 . 2.2 137.081 . 1.4 175.290 . 4.1 2005 1 1177.922 8.1 6.9 1801.652 3.2 9.1 133.301 3.2 2.3 160.015 2.8 4.6 . 2 1203.137 8.8 7.5 1804.427 0.6 5.5 133.394 0.3 1.3 160.775 1.9 3.9 . 3 1204.299 0.4 6.8 1807.939 0.8 4.5 134.616 3.7 1.9 163.199 6.2 4.0 . 4 1235.740 10.9 7.0 1873.551 15.3 4.8 134.232 -1.1 1.5 164.677 3.7 3.6 2006 1 1284.261 16.7 9.0 1920.229 10.3 6.6 135.071 2.5 1.3 166.793 5.2 4.2 . 2 1301.418 5.5 8.2 1920.864 0.1 6.5 135.672 1.8 1.7 167.081 0.7 3.9 . 3 1312.622 3.5 9.0 1935.666 3.1 7.1 134.957 -2.1 0.3 167.887 1.9 2.9 . 4 1361.067 15.6 10.1 1945.317 2.0 3.8 135.021 0.2 0.6 171.676 9.3 4.3 2007 1 1363.150 0.6 6.1 1981.783 7.7 3.2 135.013 -0.0 -0.0 173.744 4.9 4.2 . 2 1392.190 8.8 7.0 1963.366 -3.7 2.2 136.384 4.1 0.5 174.098 0.8 4.2 . 3 1466.244 23.0 11.7 1978.005 3.0 2.2 138.320 5.8 2.5 175.505 3.3 4.5 . 4 1482.053 4.4 8.9 1966.509 -2.3 1.1 138.606 0.8 2.7 177.806 5.3 3.6 2008 1 1500.591 5.1 10.1 1962.628 -0.8 -1.0 139.511 2.6 3.3 179.486 3.8 3.3 . 2 1544.749 12.3 11.0 1926.000 -7.3 -1.9 140.983 4.3 3.4 181.131 3.7 4.0 . 3 1566.960 5.9 6.9 1916.938 -1.9 -3.1 . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 10/03/08 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Thousands Change 2003 . 2004 . 137729 1248 139242 1512 2005 . 2006 . 141716 2474 144421 2706 2007 . 146049 1628 . 1 143356 704 2.0 2.1 2 144083 727 2.0 1.8 2006 . Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change . 0.9 129996 -344 . 1.1 131419 1423 . 1.8 133695 2276 . 1.9 136092 2397 1.1 137618 1527 135383 722 135840 457 Index . -0.3 98.6 . . . 1.1 100.2 . . 1.6 . 1.7 102.8 . . 2.6 . 1.8 105.7 . . 2.9 . 1.1 107.2 . . 1.4 2.2 2.1 104.9 0.9 3.8 3.2 1.4 1.9 105.6 0.7 2.7 3.1 -1.4 . 3 144604 521 1.5 1.6 136354 514 1.5 1.7 106.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 . 4 145642 1038 2.9 2.1 136789 434 1.3 1.6 106.4 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.6 2007 1 145983 340 0.9 1.8 137184 395 1.2 1.3 106.6 0.2 0.8 . 2 145904 -78 -0.2 1.3 137500 316 0.9 1.2 107.2 0.5 2.1 1.5 . 3 146019 115 0.3 1.0 137758 259 0.8 1.0 107.5 0.3 1.1 1.4 . 4 146291 272 0.7 0.4 138031 272 0.8 0.9 107.7 0.2 1.0 1.3 2008 1 146070 -221 -0.6 0.1 137917 -113 -0.3 0.5 107.4 -0.3 -1.1 0.8 . 2 146089 19 0.1 0.1 137699 -218 -0.6 0.1 107.2 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 . 3 145517 -572 -1.6 -0.3 137448 -251 -0.7 -0.2 106.7 -0.5 -2.0 -0.7 Sep 144846 175 1.5 1.7 136528 165 1.5 1.7 105.9 -0.3 -3.3 2.3 . Oct 145395 549 4.6 2.0 136601 73 0.6 1.7 106.3 0.4 4.6 2.6 . Nov 145583 188 1.6 2.1 136783 182 1.6 1.5 106.2 -0.1 -1.1 2.1 . Dec 145949 366 3.1 2.2 136982 199 1.8 1.6 106.7 0.5 5.8 2.4 2007 Jan 145915 -34 -0.3 2.0 137108 126 1.1 1.5 106.5 -0.2 -2.2 1.6 . Feb 145888 -27 -0.2 1.8 137133 25 0.2 1.3 106.2 -0.3 -3.3 1.3 . Mar 146145 257 2.1 1.8 137310 177 1.6 1.2 107.1 0.8 10.7 1.9 . Apr 145713 -432 -3.5 1.3 137356 46 0.4 1.2 106.8 -0.3 -3.3 1.1 . May 145913 200 1.7 1.3 137518 162 1.4 1.3 107.1 0.3 3.4 1.6 . Jun 146087 174 1.4 1.2 137625 107 0.9 1.3 107.6 0.5 5.7 1.7 . 146045 -42 -0.3 1.2 137682 57 0.5 1.1 107.4 -0.2 -2.2 1.3 . Jul Aug 145753 -292 -2.4 0.7 137756 74 0.6 1.0 107.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 . Sep 146260 507 4.3 1.0 137837 81 0.7 1.0 107.6 0.2 2.3 1.6 1.3 2006 . Oct 146016 -244 -2.0 0.4 137977 140 1.2 1.0 107.7 0.1 1.1 . Nov 146647 631 5.3 0.7 138037 60 0.5 0.9 107.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 . Dec 146211 -436 -3.5 0.2 138078 41 0.4 0.8 107.8 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 2008 Jan 146248 37 0.3 0.2 138002 -76 -0.7 0.7 107.4 -0.4 -4.4 . Feb 145993 -255 -2.1 0.1 137919 -83 -0.7 0.6 107.3 -0.1 -1.1 1.0 . Mar 145969 -24 -0.2 -0.1 137831 -88 -0.8 0.4 107.6 0.3 3.4 0.5 . Apr 146331 362 3.0 0.4 137764 -67 -0.6 0.3 107.5 -0.1 -1.1 0.7 . May 146046 -285 -2.3 0.1 137717 -47 -0.4 0.1 107.1 -0.4 -4.4 0.0 . Jun 145891 -155 -1.3 -0.1 137617 -100 -0.9 -0.0 107.0 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6 . 145819 -72 -0.6 -0.2 137550 -67 -0.6 -0.1 106.9 -0.1 -1.1 -0.5 . Jul Aug 145477 -342 -2.8 -0.2 137477 -73 -0.6 -0.2 106.8 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6 . Sep 145255 -222 -1.8 -0.7 137318 -159 -1.4 -0.4 106.3 -0.5 -5.5 -1.2 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/03/08 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars 2003 . 2004 . 6.0 3614.120 5.5 3832.862 2005 . 2006 . 5.1 4078.592 4.6 4313.695 2007 . 4.6 4488.464 2006 1 Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index . 4.2 101.2448 . 6.1 103.7644 . . 6.4 107.2099 . . 5.8 109.5711 . . . . . 4.1 111.3932 Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr . 1.2 1.01 . 2.5 1.37 4.27 . . 3.3 3.15 4.29 . . 2.2 4.73 4.79 . 1.7 4.35 4.63 . . 4.02 4.7 1070.109 3.1 13.0 7.6 108.8526 0.8 3.2 2.1 4.39 4.57 0.5 109.5473 0.6 2.6 5.07 . 2 4.7 1075.965 2.2 6.0 2.2 4.70 . 3 4.6 1082.149 0.6 2.3 5.0 110.0689 0.5 1.9 2.8 4.91 4.90 . 4 4.4 1085.472 0.3 1.2 4.6 109.8155 -0.2 -0.9 1.7 4.90 4.63 2007 1 4.5 1105.203 1.8 7.5 3.3 110.2336 0.4 1.5 1.3 4.98 4.68 . 2 4.5 1119.377 1.3 5.2 4.0 111.0922 0.8 3.2 1.4 4.74 4.85 . 3 4.7 1127.893 0.8 3.1 4.2 112.0778 0.9 3.6 1.8 4.30 4.73 . 4 4.8 1135.991 0.7 2.9 4.7 112.1693 0.1 0.3 2.1 3.39 4.26 2008 1 4.9 1138.145 0.2 0.8 3.0 112.2848 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.04 3.66 . 2 5.3 1148.626 0.9 3.7 2.6 111.3970 -0.8 -3.1 0.3 1.63 3.89 . 3 6.0 1136.927 -1.0 -4.0 0.8 109.6831 -1.5 -6.0 -2.1 1.49 3.86 2006 Oct 4.4 359.706 0.1 1.6 4.5 109.7437 -0.1 -0.9 2.5 4.92 4.73 . Nov 4.5 360.428 0.2 2.4 4.0 109.5274 -0.2 -2.3 1.2 4.94 4.60 . Dec 4.4 365.338 1.4 17.6 5.3 110.1754 0.6 7.3 1.3 4.85 4.56 4.76 2007 Jan 4.6 365.610 0.1 0.9 2.1 109.7791 -0.4 -4.2 0.9 4.98 . Feb 4.5 368.271 0.7 9.1 3.6 110.5181 0.7 8.4 1.6 5.03 4.72 . Mar 4.4 371.322 0.8 10.4 4.1 110.4036 -0.1 -1.2 1.3 4.94 4.56 . Apr 4.5 370.568 -0.2 -2.4 3.1 110.9530 0.5 6.1 1.4 4.87 4.69 . May 4.5 376.206 1.5 19.9 5.0 110.9686 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.73 4.75 . Jun 4.6 372.603 -1.0 -10.9 4.0 111.3551 0.3 4.3 1.4 4.61 5.10 . 4.7 374.270 0.4 5.5 3.7 112.0024 0.6 7.2 1.7 4.82 5.00 . Jul Aug 4.7 374.253 -0.0 -0.1 3.4 111.9712 -0.0 -0.3 1.6 4.20 4.67 . Sep 4.7 379.370 1.4 17.7 5.6 112.2598 0.3 3.1 2.2 3.89 4.52 . Oct 4.8 376.802 -0.7 -7.8 4.8 111.8262 -0.4 -4.5 1.9 3.90 4.53 . Nov 4.7 381.280 1.2 15.2 5.8 112.2962 0.4 5.2 2.5 3.27 4.15 . Dec 5.0 377.909 -0.9 -10.1 3.4 112.3855 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.00 4.10 2008 Jan 4.9 380.019 0.6 6.9 3.9 112.5704 0.2 2.0 2.5 2.75 3.74 . Feb 4.8 378.106 -0.5 -5.9 2.7 112.2604 -0.3 -3.3 1.6 2.12 3.74 . Mar 5.1 380.020 0.5 6.2 2.3 112.0235 -0.2 -2.5 1.5 1.26 3.51 . Apr 5.0 380.788 0.2 2.5 2.8 111.4410 -0.5 -6.1 0.4 1.29 3.68 . May 5.5 383.769 0.8 9.8 2.0 111.2978 -0.1 -1.5 0.3 1.73 3.88 . Jun 5.5 384.069 0.1 0.9 3.1 111.4523 0.1 1.7 0.1 1.86 4.10 . 5.7 381.578 -0.6 -7.5 2.0 111.4349 -0.0 -0.2 -0.5 1.63 4.01 . Jul Aug 6.1 379.876 -0.4 -5.2 1.5 110.3603 -1.0 -11.0 -1.4 1.72 3.89 . Sep 6.1 375.473 -1.2 -13.1 -1.0 107.2540 -2.8 -29.0 -4.5 1.13 3.69 . Oct . . . . . . . . . 0.67 3.81 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 10/16/08 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index 2003 . 2004 . 2005 . 2006 . 2007 . 2006 184.000 188.908 195.283 Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Year to date Index . 2.3 . 193.225 . . 2.7 . 196.633 . . 3.4 . 200.875 . Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index . 1.5 . 143.3 . . 1.8 . 148.5 . . 2.2 . 155.7 . 160.3 . 166.6 . 201.583 . . 3.2 . 205.933 . . 2.5 207.345 . . 2.9 . 210.731 . . 2.3 Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago . 3.2 . . 3.6 . . 4.9 . . 3.0 . . 3.9 . 1 199.433 0.4 1.8 3.7 1.8 203.667 0.6 2.5 2.1 2.5 159.6 0.1 0.6 4.5 . 2 201.267 0.9 3.7 3.9 2.7 205.400 0.9 3.4 2.5 3.0 160.8 0.8 3.0 4.3 . 3 203.200 1.0 3.9 3.3 3.1 206.867 0.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 161.1 0.2 0.8 2.8 . 4 202.433 -0.4 -1.5 1.9 1.9 207.800 0.5 1.8 2.7 2.7 159.8 -0.8 -3.3 0.3 2007 1 204.269 0.9 3.7 2.4 3.7 208.975 0.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 162.7 1.9 7.6 2.0 . 2 206.566 1.1 4.6 2.6 4.1 210.025 0.5 2.0 2.3 2.2 166.2 2.1 8.8 3.4 . 3 207.989 0.7 2.8 2.4 3.7 211.309 0.6 2.5 2.1 2.3 166.9 0.4 1.6 3.6 . 4 210.555 1.2 5.0 4.0 4.0 212.615 0.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 170.5 2.2 9.1 6.7 2008 1 212.796 1.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 213.931 0.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 174.3 2.2 9.2 7.1 . 2 215.426 1.2 5.0 4.3 4.7 214.919 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.2 178.8 2.6 10.6 7.6 . 3 218.958 1.6 6.7 5.3 5.4 216.612 0.8 3.2 2.5 2.5 182.5 2.1 8.6 9.4 Sep 202.900 -0.4 -5.2 2.1 3.2 207.300 0.2 2.3 2.9 3.0 160.0 -1.4 -15.7 0.9 . Oct 201.900 -0.5 -5.8 1.4 2.2 207.600 0.1 1.8 2.8 2.8 158.1 -1.2 -13.4 -1.2 . Nov 202.100 0.1 1.2 1.9 2.1 207.700 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.6 160.1 1.3 16.3 0.9 . Dec 203.300 0.6 7.4 2.6 2.6 208.100 0.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 161.1 0.6 7.8 1.1 2007 Jan 203.552 0.1 1.5 2.1 1.5 208.608 0.2 3.0 2.7 3.0 160.9 -0.1 -1.5 0.2 . Feb 204.158 0.3 3.6 2.4 2.6 209.085 0.2 2.8 2.7 2.9 162.9 1.2 16.0 2.6 . Mar 205.098 0.5 5.7 2.8 3.6 209.233 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.2 164.4 0.9 11.6 3.2 . Apr 205.751 0.3 3.9 2.6 3.7 209.650 0.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 165.5 0.7 8.3 3.2 . May 206.700 0.5 5.7 2.7 4.1 209.978 0.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 166.5 0.6 7.5 3.7 . Jun 207.246 0.3 3.2 2.6 3.9 210.446 0.2 2.7 2.2 2.3 166.6 0.1 0.7 3.2 . 207.708 0.2 2.7 2.4 3.7 210.926 0.2 2.8 2.2 2.3 167.5 0.5 6.7 4.0 . Jul Aug 207.749 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.3 211.265 0.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 166.1 -0.8 -9.6 2.3 . Sep 208.509 0.4 4.5 2.8 3.4 211.737 0.2 2.7 2.1 2.3 167.0 0.5 6.7 4.4 6.2 2006 . Oct 209.055 0.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 212.115 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 167.9 0.5 6.7 . Nov 210.930 0.9 11.3 4.4 4.1 212.626 0.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 172.3 2.6 36.4 7.6 . Dec 211.680 0.4 4.4 4.1 4.1 213.103 0.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 171.4 -0.5 -6.1 6.4 7.8 2008 Jan 212.516 0.4 4.8 4.4 4.8 213.765 0.3 3.8 2.5 3.8 173.4 1.2 14.9 . Feb 212.571 0.0 0.3 4.1 2.6 213.851 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.1 174.0 0.3 4.2 6.8 . Mar 213.301 0.3 4.2 4.0 3.1 214.176 0.2 1.8 2.4 2.0 175.6 0.9 11.6 6.8 . Apr 213.743 0.2 2.5 3.9 3.0 214.398 0.1 1.3 2.3 1.8 176.1 0.3 3.5 6.4 . May 215.132 0.6 8.1 4.1 4.0 214.832 0.2 2.5 2.3 2.0 178.6 1.4 18.4 7.3 . Jun 217.403 1.1 13.4 4.9 5.5 215.526 0.3 3.9 2.4 2.3 181.7 1.7 22.9 9.1 . 219.181 0.8 10.3 5.5 6.2 216.230 0.3 4.0 2.5 2.5 183.9 1.2 15.5 9.8 . Jul Aug 218.880 -0.1 -1.6 5.4 5.1 216.650 0.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 182.2 -0.9 -10.5 9.7 . Sep 218.813 -0.0 -0.4 4.9 4.5 216.956 0.1 1.7 2.5 2.4 181.5 -0.4 -4.5 8.7 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2000 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 27
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