Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1995

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NOVEMBER 1995

National
Economic
Trends
U.S. Merchandise
Exports: Alive and Well

merchandise exports relative to productivity growth
in other sectors.
In nominal terms, merchandise exports as a
share o f GDP have risen from 5.5 percent in 1985 to
8.2 percent in the first three quarters o f 1995, while
service exports have risen from 2 percent to 3 percent
over the same period. Adjusting for changes in relative
prices, merchandise exports as a share o f GDP have
nearly doubled between 1985 and 1995, rising from
5.3 percent in 1985 to 10.1 percent based on the first
three quarters o f 1995, as shown in the chart. This
measure indicates that the boom in merchandise
exports has substantially exceeded the expansion of
service exports, which the chart shows increased as a
share o f GDP from 2 percent in 1985 to 3 percent in
the first two quarters o f 1995.
The growth in U.S. service exports in recent years
has certainly been robust. Equally, and possibly more,
impressive has been the growth in merchandise exports.

One indicator o f the internationalization o f the
U.S. economy is that exports, both absolutely and as a
share o f gross domestic product (GDP), have risen
over time. In recent years, most observers have tended
to focus on the growth o f service exports. While service
exports have grown rapidly, such a focus tends to
overlook the rapid expansion in merchandise exports.
In fact, a case can be made that merchandise exports
have grown more rapidly than service exports.
Merchandise exports increased in nominal terms at
a 10.5 percent annual rate between the third quarters
o f 1985 and 1995. Meanwhile, service exports increased
in nominal terms at a 10.6 percent annual rate. Using
1987 dollars, however, merchandise grew at a 10 per­
cent annual rate, which exceeds the 7 percent annual
growth rate o f service exports.
The impressive growth in merchandise
U.S. Real Exports as a Share of Real GDP
exports is fueled by exports o f capital goods,
Percent
most notably computer hardware, and is
vividly demonstrated by calculating how
exports as a share o f gross domestic product
have changed. Such a calculation may be
made in more than one way. One method
is to divide nominal merchandise exports
by nominal GDP, while another method di­
vides real merchandise exports by real GDP.
I f the prices o f merchandise exports rise at
different rates from the general level o f
prices, the two measures will differ. In fact,
prices o f merchandise exports have tended
to rise more slowly than the general level
o f prices. One explanation is faster
productivity growth in the production o f

— Cletus C. Coughlin

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System

N ational Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve

Economic
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.



Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter of 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate o f growth from 11/1990 to HI/1991 can be
found at the intersection o f the n/1990 column and the HI/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Annual Rates
2-91

2-90

1.5

3-90

0.3

-0.9

4-90

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




3-91

2

4,867.9
4,879.9
0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92

3.9
3.9
3.5
4.2
4.4

5.0
4.4
3.8
4.6
4.7

3.8
3.2
4.5
4.7

2.6
4.8
4.9

7.1
6.1

5.2

4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2

5.5
5.5
5.3
5.3

5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3

5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4

6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6

5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95 2-95

2.8

4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5,636.8
5,705.9
5,759.9
5.796.6
5.896.8
5,971.3

5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5

6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6

5.7
5.6
5.4
5.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

5.9
5.8
5.5
5.4

6.2
6.0
5.6
5.5

6.5
6.1
5.6
5.5

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

6.6
6.1
5.5
5.4

6.3
5,8
5.1
5.0

6.4
5.5
4.7
4.7

4.7
3.9
4.2

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

3.0
3.9

4.8

6,897.2
6,977.4
7,030.0
7,113.2

1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




6.7
6.4
5.9
5.8

3

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2 .5

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
“ ” — —Trend is ten-year moving average of fixed—weight (1987 dollar) growth rate. The chain—weight trend (not shown)
differs only slightly.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90
-2.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.4
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

1-91 2-91

2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1

1.0
0.5
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.1

0.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2

3.1
2.8
3.0
3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.5

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.4
2.9
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.5

3.5
4.6
3.5
3.2
3,1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.6

5.7
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.6

12
1.8
2.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.4

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.4
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.7
38
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.6

2.7
4.5
4 1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.7

3.3
3.7
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.4
3.5

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.




6.3
48
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.2
3.8
3.9

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

4.1
4.1
4.4
4.0
3.4
3.6

4.0
4.6
3.9
3.3
3.5

5.1
3.9
3.0
3.3

2.7
2.0
2.7

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95 2-95

1.3
2.7

4.2

4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,367.0
5,433.8
5,470.1
5,487.8
5,544.6

1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

4

Implicit and Chain Price Deflators for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3*91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90
5.0
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3

1-91 2-91

4-90

1-91 2-91

2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2

2.8
2.7
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2

3-91 4-91

2.7
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-95 2-95
116.4
117.2
118.0
118.8

3.8
3.2
2.6
2.6
2,8
2.6
2,3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2,2
2.2
2,1

3-91 4-91

119.9
2.7
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0

120.7
1,3
2.0
2.4
2.2
2,0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9

121.1
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9

121.9
3,3
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
1.9

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

122.9
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.7

1.0
1.1
1.7
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.7

1.3
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.8

2.9
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2.9
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.0
1,8

1.9
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.5

1.3
1.7
1.7
1,4

2.2
1.9
1.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1.6
1.1

0.6

123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5
126.9
127.6
128.1
128.3

1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31, 1995

5

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
5.3
4.2
3 1
3.8
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.0
2.9
2.7
3.6
3.2
3.2
3;2
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.0
30
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2,9
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Third quarter data are advance estimates.

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
116.8

1987=100
1-95 2-95

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

117.7
118.6
119.4
3.4
3.0
2.7
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.5
4.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2,8
2.8
2.8
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

120.5
121.5
122.3
123.2
124.4
2.6
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.5
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2,8
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5
128.5
129.4
130.3

3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.7
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2.8
2.5
2.1
1-95 2-95

131.3
132.2
132.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3*91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1*94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
3.4
2.9
2.4
2.7
3,1
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.1
2.9
3,4
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.5
2.9
3.0
30
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3,0
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2,6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95 2-95
118.5

119.2
120.1
121.1
122.1
3.7
2.6
1.6
3.1
2.8
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.3
2.2
24
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.0
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.6
1.7
2.2
19
2 1
2.3
2.5
2.5
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.4
2 1 2.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
22
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2,5
2.3
2.2
22
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
22
2,3
2,3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.1
2 I
2.3
2.3
2.1
2 1 2.0
2.2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

123.2
123.7
124.9

3.2
3.2
2.7
2.6
26

3.1
25

19
,2.4
2.0
2.2
2.2
24
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.8
2*3
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

25
1.7
0.9
1-95 2-95

125.7
126.4
126.8
127.5
127.9
128.9
129.9
130.5
131.2
132.0
132.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

Consumer Price Index
Percent

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)

il

■'

III

00
<N

3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95

Initial Month
1982-84=100
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
2.5
147.1
2.5
2.5
147.4
2.2
2.1
16
-3*«C ,
*
147.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
4.1
148.1
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.7
3.3
148.5
3.2
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.1
5.0
149.1
3.1
3.2
3,7
iffiffe
3.3
3.7
3.6
2.4
149.4
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.0
1.6
149.6
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.6
1.6
1.6
1.9
" ....
149.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.7
24
2.9
2.6
2.0
1.9
2.0
150.1
: ............
.........2.9
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.4
2.4
4.1
2.7
3.2
150.6
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.2
3.7
3.2
2.6
2.8
151.0
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.6
3.0
3.2
2.4
2.8
151.3
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.4
2.8
3.1
3.6
3.5
36
4.9
151.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.5
4.0
3.2
152.3
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.2
2.4
1.6
3.1
152.5
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.4
2.0
2.4
152.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.2
1.9
2.0
1.6
153.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
153.2
«Ip
#§

Terminal
Month

2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

7

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

8

-2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Month

3-94
4-94
5-94
6 94
7-94
8 94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12 94
| ':i“95
2-95
3 95
4 95
5 95
6-95
7-95
8-95
1 9-95

Initial Month

1982=100

2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
>
0.0
0.0 0.0
-0.3 -0.5 -1.0
1.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.6 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.9
2.4 3.6 4 9 6.9
16
19
0.8
1.0 1.2 1,7 1.9 1.4 “3.7
0.2 -0.6 -4 2 -4 7
02
04
0.1 0.1
'
>
1.4 7.9
1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 -0.3
1.0 1.1
39
5.9
2.2
0
7
1
9
2.1
1.2 1.4
1.6
1.9
1.7 3.1 5.9 4.9 5.8
1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.6
1.9
1 8 2.9 4.9 3.9 3.9
1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2 5 2.5
1.9
1.9
3.2
3.4
2.7
-4.3
1.6
2.4
1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5
1.9 2.7 4.0 3.3 3 1 2.2 2.4 2.9
2.1
2.4 2 5 2 5
18
19
24
1.9
1.9 2.6 3.7 3.0 2.9 2.1 22
1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
1.2
09
0.0
-1.9
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.1
3.0
1.5
2.0
1.8 2.0 2.1
16
17
* A
O 7
0.9
0.7
1.1
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.9
0-0..
-0-9...M
........
.........
1.7
1.8
1.5 1.6
m
1.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9
1.7
1.6 2.3
1.7
1.6 1.2
1.5
1.7
1.3 1.4
1.4 3.8
1.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.9
1.9
1.8 2.4
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.4
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
3-95
1-95
2-95
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94




125.2
125.2
125.1
125.2
125.5
126.2
125.8
125.3
126.1
126.5
127.1
127.3
127.5
127.8
128.0
127.8
127.8
127.7
128.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.5
4.5
4.1
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1

2.8
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2

»

3.9
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2

4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0




1-95 2-95

»

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0

3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.9

3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Data are for the last month of quarter.

June 1989=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8

3.3
3.0
2.7
2.8
2.7

2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5

2.3
2.6
2.5

2.9
2.6

2.3

108.4
109.7
110.8
111.9
113.0
113.8
114.6
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.3
125.2
125.9

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

9

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
-1.1
1.1 3.3
1.4
2.7
1.4
2.2

1.6
2.2
2.1
2.2

2.3

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2.2
1.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.4
1.9

2.8

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.8
2.1

1.8
1.8
2.1
2.0
1.8

2.1
2.1

1.9

1.9

2.0
2.2
2.2

2.0
2.2
2.2

2.0
2.0
2.2

2.9

112.3
2.5
3.8
3,1
3.1
3.2
2.3

2.0
2.1
2.4
2.3

113.0
5.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.3
1.9

2.0
2.4
2.3
1.9

2.0
2.2
2.1

2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2

2.1
2.2
2.2

2.3

2,4

2.4

2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2

1.9

1.9

2.0
2.2
2.2

2.4

23

3-90 4-90

1-95

112.0
1.1
1.8

2.8
2.6

1.9

1982=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

110.5
111.4

1.9
2.7
2.5

2.3
2.3

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91




114.4

1.8
2.5

2.8
1.6

3.2
3.3
1.5

1,3
1.5

1.2

2.0

2.0
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2

1.9

1.6
1.8
2,0
2.0
2.2

1.5

3.5
0.7

0.6
1.0
1,8
1.8

-2.0
-0.9
1.4
1.4

0.3
1.4
2.5
2.3

1.3

1.0

1.6
1.9
1.9

1.3
1.7
1.7

2.1

2.0

2.4

0.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.6

2.4
3.6
3.0
1.9

4.9
3.3
1.7

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.2
2.2

2.5
2.4
2.7

2.5
2.4

2.0

1.0
2.0
2.0

2.8

2.4

2.5

17

0.2
1.2
1.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-1.3
3.4
3.7
3.2
3,5

4.1
3.0
3.6

2.0
3.3

4.7

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

114.9
115.8
116.8
116.2
116.3
117.0
118.4
118.9
118.5
119.5
120.7
121.3
122.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis
October 31, 1995

10

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

1987-100

1987=100

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month

1987=100

2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95

10-94

5.1

4.3

4.9

4.3

3.9

4.5

2.0

5.2

119.5

\_______________
12-94
.

6.4

? .r .......* .........

2-95
3*95
4-95
5*95
6-95
7-95
8-95

5.9

6.5

6.4

6.4

—

—

—

° ,u —

5.6 5.2
5.1 4.6
4.1 3.6
lift 3.5
3.7 3.3
3*8 3.1
4.2 3.8

7.3

6.7

____$ 2 ___ 2 !S ___ 0 ,0

5.6
5.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
3*3
4.0

5.4 5.3
4.7 4.5
3.5 3.3
3,4 3.Î
3.1 2.9
3.0 2.7
3.7 3.5

9.4

-------- — - --------

5.7
4,9
3.4
3,3
3.0
2,8
3.7

-------- ~

fry

5.1
4.2
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.2
3.2

__ _____ .____ _

11.6 14.9

6.4
6.7
5,1 5.1
3.2 2.9
3.0 2.7
2.7 2.4
2,5 2*2
3.6 3.4

J U

6.1
4.3
1.8
1.8
16
1.5
2.9

121.7

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1~ 0 0 A

2.0
1.0
-1.2
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
1.5

_______________ ü_______ ________

1.0
0.0
-2.6
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8
1.3

*1.0
-4.3
-2,3
-1.7
-1.2
1.3

■

___________

122.1
122.0
-7.6
-2#?', 2,0 ; 1 " '
-2.0
1.0 0.0
-1.2 1.0 0.5 1.0
1.8 4.3 5.0 7.6 14.7

121.2
121.4
121.4
121.5
122.9

2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-94 3-94 4-94
3-94 -0.5
4-94
1.0
2.4
5-94 1.6 2.7
3,0
6-94 1.1
1.1
1.6
7-94 1.1
1.5
1.2
8-94 1.6
2.0
2.0
9-94 2.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
10-94 2.4
2.9
11-94 2.4
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.7
12-94 2.3
2.4
2.4
1-95 2.2
2.7
2.7
2-95 2.4
2.5
3-95 2.3
2.6
4-95 2.0
2.2
2.2
1.5
5-95 1.4
1.4
6-95 1.4
1.5
1.5
1.7
7-95 1.6
1.7
8-95 1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
9-95 1.5
1.6
2-94 3-94 4-94

Thousands of
Initial Month
Persons
5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
122,160
122,402
122,703
-0.7
122,635
0.4
122,781
1.4
123,197
4.1
1.6
2.8
123,644
2.3
3.3
4.3
4.4
2.8
3.7
4.7
4.9
124,141
4.5
2.8
3.5
4.0
3.7
2.6
124,403
4.0
2.6
2.1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.0
1.6
124,570
:
■■ ■ / . '
0.7
2.4
1.1
3.0
2.4 " 1 6
2.8
2.8
124,639
2.7
4.8
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.3
32
125,125
2.2
2.1
2.3
1.4 ....
3.1
2.5
2.7
125,274
3.1
2.9
2.9
1.2
1.4 -0.3 -1.9
1.5
1.3
2.1
2.4
2.5
23
2.0
125,072
0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -2.6 -4.S -7.0
1.3
1.5
1.2 0.8
1.5
124,319
0.4
0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -1.5 -2.5 -2.8
1.6
1.3
0.9
1.3
1.5
1.5
124,485
0.7
0.5
0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4
3.1
4.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.3 0.9
1.6
124,959
0.4
03
0.6
0.2 -0 6 -0.9 -0.7
1.5
1.4 -1.7
10
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.3
124.779
0.7
0.6
0.0 -0.2 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.9 3.5
1.6
1.2 0.9
0.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
11! 125,140
5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

12

Payroll Employment
Millions

Seasonally Adjusted

Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
1 7-95
8-95
9-95

Initial Month
Thousands
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
,
5.6
113,087
4.3
3.0
113,363
*
3.8
2k0 3,0
113,638
3.7
3.1
3.1
3.3
113,943
114,171
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.8
2,4
3.0
3.5
3.1
36
3.1
3.0
114,510
3.4
3.0
2.7
114,762
3,0
2.9
3.1
3*0
3.2
2.8
2.8
2.8
26
2.7
2.2
18
114,935
««5ti»
3.4
115,427
3.1
3.1
3.5
5.3
3.2
3.2
3.3
33
3.0
3.0
3.7
2.1
3.0
3.0
3 1 29
3.0
115,624
3.1
2,9
2.7
1.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.0
2.8
2.8
3.1
115,810
32
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.6
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
3 1 24
116,123
3.1
2.8
1.9
2*8
2.8 n o
2.7
2.4
2.6
116,302
2.8
2.7
2.3
29
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.0 0 1
2.6
1.7
2.5
2.5
2.4
1.8
2.3
2.4
1.8
116,310
0.4 -0.3 -0.6
2.6
2,4
2.3
2.3
1.4
2.2
2.2
1.3
1.1
1.9 2.0
2.0
116,248
2.4
2.4
2.6
24
1.2
1.1
0.8
3.1
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.5
116,547
2.1
2.1
1.7
1.7 0.3
0.7
2.5
2.3
2.3
0.9
2.2
2.1
2,1
1.3 0.9
116,575
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.5
1.4
23
1.1
1.4
2.0
2.5
2.3
2.2
1.2
1.5
2.7
2.2
2.2
116,837
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.5
2.0
1.6
1.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
1.2
2.0
1.3
1.8
21
12
116,958
2 1 2.0
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.5
1,1
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95

Billions of Dollars
Initial Month
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
3.1
-0.4 -3.8
3.2
3.2 10.6
2.2
1.9
4.8 -0.6
2.1
0.5
1.8 3.8
1.6
1.7
2.4
2.3
3.9
2.9
4.2
2.7
2.9
4.3
3.9
2.9
5.1
5.9
4.7
6.2
5.4
6.9
8.7 11.1 16.5
4.5
5.0
4.1
5.0
5.9
3.8
3.8
6.8 -2.2
6.5
5.4
4.7
6.4
8.4
4.2
4.3
5.6
7.3
3.0
6.9
1
4.2
5.2
6.4
3.9
4.3
4.6
5.3
6.0
3.3
6.1
6.3
5.2
3.7
3.3
3.5
5.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
5.5
3.5
4.9
1.1 -0.7 -2.2 -4.9 -13.0
0.5
2.7
1.0
0.3 -0.7 -3.0
1.6 2.2
8.3
3.3
1.7
1.2
2.0
2.6
0.6 -0.5
6.5
3.5
4.8
3.0
2.2
1.9
3.7
2.4
1.6
6.2
1.0
5.2
5.6
3.9
2.6
1.9
1.6
3.4
2.7 -0.2
2.1
1.3
0.8
4.6
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.4
2.3
4.9
3.7
2.4
2r8
2.2
1.4
^.6
3.5
1.8
2.Q
3.3
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
7-94
8-94
1-95
2-95
4-95
3-95
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94
4.1
4.1
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.3

4.2
4.2
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.2

5.1
5.0
3.3
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
3.7

4.5
4.4
2.7
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.3

5.1
5.0
3.0
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.6

5.6
5.4
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
3.7

5.9
5.6
3.1
3.6
3.7

3,803.1
3,790.9
3,822.9
3,820.9
3,826.0
3,839.2
3,857.6
3,907.0
3,899.9
3,926.1
3,938.6
3,950.0
3,962.9
3,917.0
3,943.0
3,958.4
3,976.3
3,975.7
3,991.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates

14

Retail Sales
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
Q.ÛÎ
« 'S ’
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
x 9-95

Initial Month
Billions of Dollars
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95
125.005
13 6
124.543
4.3 -4.3
124.090
1.3 -4.3 -4.3
125.026
3.3
0.1
2.3
9.4
124.872
2.3 -0.3
3.8 -1.5
126.056
3.7
3.9
2.0
6.5
5.0 12.0
37
126.440
3.9
2.3
3.7
4.6
5.8
7.8
4.1
56
7.7
128.003
5.3
7 3 10.4
9.6 15.9
* .
5.2
128.251
5.0
7.1
8.9
3.9
6.3
2.3
6.8
8.3
3.4
4.4
128.176
4.4
5.7
5.1
5.1
5.6
0.8 -0.7
6.5
X
4.1
128.353
4.1
3.2
1.7
4.4
1.1
0.5
5.2
4.6
5.7
4.6
2.4
127.065
2.7
1.8
1.2 -2.2 -3.6 -5.1 -11.4
3.2
3.0
1.6
2.5
127.662
2.7
3,0
2.1
2.2
1.9 -0.6 -1.4 -1.6 -3.2
5.8
3.5
2.8
3.4
127.072
2.3
1.5
20
2.4
1.2
0.9 -1.4
-2.6 -3.9
0.0 -5.4
2.6
2.0
. . ...... -2.2
•* A
128.107
2.9
2.1
2.6
2.7
2.0
0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6
3.3
2.1 10.2
3.2
3.1
2.2
129.032
3.2
2.6
3.1
2.7
4.7
4.4
9.0
3.7
3.2
36
2.8
1.2
1.0
1.3
1.3
9.6
128.318
1.0 -6.4
2.0
1.8 0.3
0.1
0.2 -0.1
2.4
1.5 4.0
2.6
2.0
2.4
2.9
2.4
2.8
4.1
128.753
2.0 -1.3
4.0
2.7
2.1
0.7
2.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
3.0
2.5
W SBM SSM
27
2 j
IQ
A
2.9
1.6
128.926
0.7
25
0.6
2.0
2.?
2 «»
25
2
5
0.8
9*8
3?
? TP
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95 8-95

Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

15

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing
Period
1992
1993
1994

Retail Trade

Total Business(3)

Shipments (1)
2931.95
3100.14
3364.60

Inventories (2)
379.24
377.43
391.81

Sales (1)
1944.61
2072.61
2233.59

Inventories (2)
251.99
267.68
290.02

Sales (1)
6720.25
7113.59
7671.01

1994
October
November
December

283.98
291.19
296.05

388.06
389.99
391.81

191.49
192.12
192.39

288.67
289.99
290.02

653.12
661.90
671.28

908.57
913.83
916.55

1995
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

297.79
298.56
298.44
295.29
297.09
298.71
293.47
302.34
NA

396.10
399.73
402.08
405.68
408.29
410.01
412.42
412.47
NA

193.30
191.87
193.15
193.02
195.11
196.77
196.07
196.99
197.51

294.30
296.00
297.20
299.69
300.53
300.33
299.41
302.51
NA

673.92
675.48
674.80
672.91
678.44
682.96
675.78
686.09
NA

928.67
936.09
942.74
95224
956.52
960.16
964.89
969.12
NA




Inventories
838.90
860.98
916.55

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-2.4
-0.3
1.8
-0.5 0.5 "0.8
0.2 -0.5 -0.2
-0.4
0.6
1.4
4.8
1.2
2.3
1.4
0.8
1.3
2.0
3.1
1.7
1.7
2.4
3.2
1.1
2.4
3.8
1.7
3.0
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.5
3.1
1.5
3.0
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.2
1.7
2.2
2.6
3.0
2.1
2.6
3.4
2.6
3.0
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.9
3.3
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.2
2.4
3.4
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.8
2.8
3.4
3.1
2.5
3.3
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.4
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1.5
2.5
3.5
3.5
4.5
5.6
2.7
3.1
0.2
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.7
1.3
2.7
3.0
2.8
1.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.2
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
2.4
3.2
2,8
6.4
4.0
4.8
2.2
3.5
3.9 4.3
3.3
3.4
1.8
1.5
3.1
3.5
3.6
2.6
2.9
3.3
4.3
3.9
4.0
3.4
3.8
5.7
3.7
5.0
2.6
3.5
3.2
3.8
4.2
4.1
3.5 3.7
2.6
3.3
3.1
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.4
3.5
3.8
3.1
3,3
3.6 3.7
3.5
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Annual Rates
1-95 2-95

2.6
3.4
1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

17

5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,310.0
5,384.4
5.419.0
5,453.5
5.509.3

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate
3-95
Real GDP

4.20

2 - 95

1-95
2.70

1.30

4-94

3-94

5.07

2-94

1-94

4-93

4.04

4.09

3.35

6.26

Components (1)
Final Sales

4.13

2.55

2.57

5.66

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

Change in Business
Inventories

0.07

-1.22

0.13

-0.57

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

Expenditures

1.97

2.24

1.06

3.39

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

Fixed Investment

1.55
1.12

0.87
1.48

2.47
2.63

2.22
2.12

-0.61

-0.15

0.10

1.40
1.09
0.30

1.67

0.42

1.40
1.67
-0.27

1.26
0.41

3.38
2.30
1.05

Government Purchases
Federal
State and Local

0.51
0.28
0.23

0.04
-0.18
0.21

-0.13
-0.24

-0.73
-0.97
0.25

-0.21
-0.53
0.31

-0.89
-0.72

0.11

1.13
0.66
0.46

-0.16

-0.02
-0.35
0.33

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

0.07
1.34

-0.60
0.84

-0.39
1.71

-0.59

-1.27

-1.43

-1.66
-0.43
-1.24

2.35
-1.99

Personal Consumption

Nonresidential
Residential

-0.84

0.74

0.61
-1.44

2.36
-1.59

1.86
-2.41

-2.08

0.32

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-95

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-2.8
-0.4
2.1
17
02
1.3
-0.0
0.9
0.4 -0.5
2.1
5.8
2.1
2.6
1.1
1.2
2.0
3.7
2.3
2.0
16
2.3
2.7
2.4
3.8
2.8
2.9
3.3
4.2
2.1
2.0
2.7
2.7
3.0
3.7
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.5
2.1
2.8
3.0
3.6
2.3
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.6
2.4
2.9
3.7
3.3
3.0
3.1
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.5
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.6
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.0
2.6
3.0
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.4

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

:

:

1.7
2.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.3

3.9
4.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.4

5.6
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.3

1.6
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.1

2.6
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.3

3.9
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.4
3.4

Annual Rates
1-95 2-95

■
4.0
4.3
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.3

4.7
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.1
3.2

1.3
2.2
3.1
2.8
2.9

3.1
4.1
32
3.3

5.1
3.3
3.3

1.6
2.5

3.4

2.7
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.2
3.3 3.3 3.1
3.2
3.3 3.2
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.2 2.6 3.2
2.9
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.




3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8
3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,584.7
3,629.6
3,643.9
3,674.3

3,701.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

18

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90
-24.8
-12.3
-3.8
0.7
4.7
7.5
6.5
8.5
8.2
6.5
6.8
8.4

1-91 2-91

2.2
8.7
10.9
13.7
15.4
12.9
14.4
13.2
10.7
10.6
12.0
8.5 11.9
8.4 11.5
7.4 10.1
7.0
9.6
8.7
6.4
5.2
7.3
5.5
7.5
4-90 1-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

15.6
15.6 15.6
17.8 18.9 22.4
19.0 20.2 22.6 22.7
15.1 15.0 14.8 11.2 0.8
16.5 16.7 17.0 15.3 11.7
14.9 14.7 14.6 12.7 9.5
11.8 11.2 10.5 8.3
5.0
11.5 11.0 10.4 8.5
5.9
13.1 12.8 12.5 11.1 9.3
12.8 12.5 12.2 11.0 9.4
12.3 12.0 11.6 10.5 9.1
8.7
10.8 10.4 9.9
7.3
10.1 9.7
9.3
8.1
6.8
8.7
7.3
8.2
5.8
9.2
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.4
4.0
5.7
7.8
7.3
6.8
4.5
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

23.8
14.2 5.3
6.4 -1.3 -7.6
7.2
2.1
0.6
11.1 8.1
9.0
10.9 8.5
9.3
10.3 8.2
8.8
8.1
6.1
6.2
7.5
5.6
5.6
6,3
4.4
4.5
2.2
4.3
2.6
4.9
3.3
3.1
3-92 4-92 1-93

9.4
18.4
15.5
13.3
9.2
8.0
6.3
3.5
4.3
2-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

28.2
18.7 10.0
14.7 8.5
7.0
3.4
9.1
0.3
7.7
3.1
0.9
5.8
1.8 -0.2
2.7 -1.0 -3.0
3.7
0.6 -0.8
3-93 4-93 1-94

-6.0
-2.0
-2.4
-5.4
-2.3
2-94

2.3
-0.6
-5.2
-1.4
3-94

1-95 2-95
164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
186.7
196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
231.5
229.5
221.2
227.0

-3.4
-8.7 -13.7
-2.6 -2.2 10.9
4-94 1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90
-12.7
-7.9
-6.3
-6.2
-5.0
-1.9
-1.0
0.1
1.6
3.0
3.8
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.0
7.8
8.0
8.0
4-90

1-91 2-91
-3.0
-3.0
-3.9
-2.9
0.4
1.1
2.0
3.6
4.9
5.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.8
8.5
9.2
9.4
9.3
1-91

-3.0
-4.4
-2.9
1.3
2.0
2.9
4.6
5.9
6.6
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.7
9.3
10.1
10.2
10.1
2-91

3-91 4-91

-5.7
-2.9
2.7
3.3
4.1
5.9
7.2
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
10.3
11.1
11.1
10.9
3-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
522.2

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95 2-95
518.3
514.4
506.9

-0.1
7.2 15.0
6.4
9.9
5.0
6.7
9.1
6.2
8.3 10.6 9.1
9.5 11.6 10.7
9.9 11.7 11.0
11.2 13.0 12.6
11.2 12.7 12.4
11.0 12.3 12.0
11.3 12.5 12.2
11.8 12.9 12.7
12.5 13.6 13.5
12.4 13.4 13.3
12.1 13.1 12.9
4-91 1-92 2-92

506.8
524.8
7.5
11.3
12.7
12.6
14.2
13.7
13.0
13.1
13.6
14.4
14.1
13.6
3-92

531.2
540.9
15.1
15.4
14.3
16.0
14.9
13.9
14.0
14.4
15.2
14.8
14.2
4-92

560.3
15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3
15.2
14.8
14.1
1-93

12.2
16.5
14.6
13.2
13.4
14.1
15.1
14.6
13.9
2-93

21.1
15.9
13.6
13.7
14.5
15.6
15.0
14.1
3-93

10.9
10.0
11.4
12.9
14.6
14.0
13.2
4-93

9.2
11.6
13.6
15.5
14.7
13.6
1-94

14.1
15.9
17.7
16.1
14.5
2-94

17.6
19.6
16.7
14.6
3-94

21.5
16.3 11.3
13.5 9.7
8.3
4-94 1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

19

581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
680.0
708.2
743.6
763.7
779.0

St. Louis

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
3.0
1.7
-0,2
-0.8
-0,4
-0.8
-0,2
-0.1

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

1-91

2-91

0.5
-1.7 -3.9
-2.1 -3.4
-1.2 -1.8
-1.6 -2.1
-0.8 -1.0
-0.5 -0.7
-0.8 -1.2 -1.5
-0.6 -1.0 -1.1
-0.4 -0.7 -0.9
-0.4 -0.7 -0.8
-0.7 -1.1 -1.2
-0.8 -1.1 -1.2
-0.3 -0.5 -0.6
-0.5 -0.8 -0.9
-0.6 -0.8 -0.9
-0.5 -0.7 -0.8
-0.3 -0.5 -0.6
4-90 1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

-2.9
*0.7
1.5
-1.5 -0.8
-0.3
0.6
0.7
-0.1
'1.1 -0.7
-0.7 -0.4
-0.5 -0.2
-0.5 -0.2
-0.9 -0.7
-0.9 -0.7
-0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.4
-0.6 -0.5
-0.6 -0.4
-0.4 -0.2
3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-3.0
0.1
0.4
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0
-0.2
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
1-92

3.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
2-92

0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.4
3-92

-5.9
-2.4
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.7
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-0.8

1.2
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.5
-0.7 -1.3
-0.8 -1.3
0.4
0.2
-0.3 -0.5
-0.3 -0.5
-0.3 -0.4
-p.5
0.1 -0.1
4-92 1-93 2-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

-0.1
-2.5 -4.9
-2.1 -3.1
0.0
0.1
-0.8 -1.0
-0.8 -0.9
-0.7 -0.8
-0.2 -0.2
3-93 4-93

-1.2
2.6
6.7
1.1 -4.1
0.3
0.1
0.5 -2.5 -0.7
0.4 -1.6 -0.3
0.1
0.6
0.9 -0.4
0.8
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95 2-95

0.2
1.6
3.1
1-95 2-95

949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
932.0
922.2
920.5
921.0
928.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

-1.1
-5.8 -10.2
-7.1 -9.9
-5.6 -7.1
-5.5 -6.5
-3.3 -3.7
-2.7 -2.9
-4.3 -4.8
-4.3 -4.7
-4.1 -4.5
-3.2 -4.2 -4.5
-3.7 -4.7 -5.1
-4.0 -5.0 -5.3
-3.1 -3.9 -4.1
-3.8 -4.7 -4.9
-3.8 -4.6 -4.8
-3.8 -4.5 -4.7
-3.4 -4.0 -4.2
4-90 1-91 2-91

3-91

Annual Rates
1-95 2-95
395.2

394.1
-9.5
-5.5
-5.3
-2.0
-1.4
-3.9
-3.8
-3.7
-3.9
-4.5
-4.8
-3.6
-4.5
-4.4
-4.3
-3.8
3-91

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.




4-91

-1,3
-3.1
0,7
0.8
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
-3.1
-3.9
-4.4
-3.1
-4.1
-4.0
-4.0
-3.4
4-91

-4.8
1.7
1.5
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-3.4
-4.3
-4.7
-3.2
-4.3
-4.3
-4.2
-3.5
1-92

8.6
4.8
-2.4
-2.7
-2,8
-3.1

1.1
-7.5
-6.2
-5.4
-5.3
-6.2
-4.7 -6.4
-3.1 -4.4
-4.3 -5.6
-4.2 -5.4
-4.1 -5.2
-3.4 -4.4
2-92 3-92
to

1-91 2-91

o

3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

*

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94

4-90
9.3
4.0
-1.0
-3.2
-2.8
-3.2
-1.6
-1.2
-2.9
-3.0

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

-15.4
-9.7
-7.5
-6.9
-7.6
-7.6
-5.2
-6.4
-6.1
-5.8
-4,9
4-92

-3.6
-3.3
-3.9
-5.5
-6.0
-3.4
-5.0
-4.9
-4.7
-3.7
1-93

-3.0
-4.0
-6.1
-6.6
-3.3
-5.3
-5.1
-4.8
-3.8
2-93

-5.0
-7.7
-7.8
-3.4
-5.7
-5.4
-5.0
-3.9
3-93

-10.3
-9.1 -7.9
1.1
-2.9
-5.9 -4.4
-5.5 -4.2
-5.1 -4.0
-3.7 -2.6
4-93 1-94

10.9
-2.6 -14.4
-3.0 -9.3 -3.8
-3.0 -7.2 -3.4
-1.4 -4.3 -0.7
2-94 3-94 4-94

r
-2.9
0.9
4.9
1-95 2-95

383.6
374.1
372.9
368.3
376.0
377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1
341.7
334.7
343.5
330.4
327.2
324.8
328.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31,1995

Real Exports
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
519.0

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
-L I
9.3 20.7
0.6
544.8
6.3 10.2
7.0 13 7
8.1 11.4
6.7
7 7 10.0
9.8
6.1
5.3
8.3
7.0
6.6
3.8
1.5
5.3
7.8
6,6
3,4
6.4
4.3
5.3
7.7
5.6
6.7
6.5
5.0
4.6
6.2
7.2
6.5
4.7
5,7
5,4. 3.8
3,2
38
3.0 -1.0
6.7
5.0
5.9
5.7
4.7
4.4
4.1
4.6
3.2
7.7
5.6
4.1
5.0
4,5
3.3
2,8
3.1
2.5
1.0 2.1 -3.2
7.0
5.7
6.3
5.4
6.3
5.3
6.0
6.1
8.2
5.8
8.5 21.7
5.5
6.1
4.8
4.4
5,3
4.2
3.9
5.2
4.6
4.4
4.3
8.3 -3.5
*<i » ♦
6.9
5.8
6.3
6.3
5.5
5.5
7.4
6.1 16.6
6.0
6.1
5.9
7.3 11.0
7.4
6.4
7.1
6.8
7.0
6.4
6.9
8.7 12.0
6.4
7.2
8.6
8,9 15.7 14.8
8.2
7.4
7.9
7.4
8.2
8.7 10.2 10.6 13.6 11.6 17.2 17.5 20.2
7.6
7.6
8.5
8.0
7.2
7.7
7.2
7.3
7.9
8.3
9.5
7.4
8.2
9.7 12.1 10.2 14.0 13.1 12.3
4.8
7.2
7.6
7.2
73
7.4
7.9
7.8
8.0
8.1
9.2
9.3 11.3
9.6 12.5 11.4 10.4
5.7
6.6
7.4
7.8
7.4
7,5
8.0
8.2
8.3
9.3
8.1
9.5 11.2
9,8 12.2 11,3 10.4
8.6 10.6
7.6
7.3
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Third quarter data are advance estimates.

544.0
562.6
571.0
573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9
706.2
717.6
735.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Real Imports
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1*91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1*93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3*94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

4-90
-12.2
0.2
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.9
7.6
7.6
8.3
8.4
9.1
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.7
9.6
4-90

1-91
•
14.4
12.4
10.0
9.2
9.9
9.7
9.2
9.5
10.1
9.8
10.4
10.3
10.9
11.3
11.3
11.2
11.1
11.0
1-91

2-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

10.4
5.4
7.9
7.5
6,6
6.0
9.8 13.0
8.8
8.3
8.7
8.3
9.3 10.7
8.4
8.0
8.6
9.3
9,2
8.8
8.6
9.9
9.6
9.4 10.1 10.8
9.3
9.2
9.7 10.2
10.0
9.9 10.5 11.1
9.9
9.9 10,4 10.9
10.6 10.7 11.2 11 7
11.0 11.1 11.6 12.1
11.1 11.1 11.6 12.0
11.0 11.0 11,5 11.9
10.9 11.0 11.4 11.7
10.8 10.8 112 115
2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95 2-95
539.4
557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8

:

607.1
8.4
7.4
6.5
8,8
9.0 11,6
10.3 10.9 13.2
9.7 10.0 11,2
10.7 11.2 12.4
10,6 10.9 11.8
11.6 12.0 13.0
12.0 12.5 13,3
11.9 12.4 13.1
11.8 12.1 12.8
11.6 11.9 12.5
11.4 11.6 12.1
2-92 3-92 4-92

,

14.9
11.1
7.4
12.7 11.6 16.0
11.9 10.9 12.7
9.5
13.2 12.8 14.7 14.1
13.6 13.4 15.0 14.6
13.3 13.1 14.2 13.8
12.9 12 6 13.5 13.0
12.6 12.3 13.0 12.5
12.2 11,9 12.4 11.9
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

18.9
17.2 15.6
15.3 13.5 11.4
14,0 12.4 10.8 10.1
9.9
13.1 11.7 10.5 10.0
9.2
8.6
9.5
12,4 11.1 10.0
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95
Prepared

Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices.

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

21

by Federal

619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6
707.4
723.6
755.6
783.5
805.0
824.6
844.3
861.8

Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

1989

Billions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

2-95

1- 95

4-94

3-94

2-94

1-94

4-93

3-93

194,302

189,189

184,873

178,274

171,823

166,231

166,422

158,613

45,261

43,254

38,307

36,031

32,338

30,942

30,412

29,931

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad
Imports
Goods and Services
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.

-227,670 -218,629 -212,340 -207,081 -198,746 -189,247 -186,912 -180,601
-48,135

-45,215

-42,878

-38,564

-34,623

-30,826

-30,376

-26,741

Balance on Current Account

-43,622

-39,025

-43,277

-39,714

-37,986

-30,271

-31,176

-27,032

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad

-75,107

-75,343

-55,156

-27,940

-5,973

-36,783

-77,657

-46,270

U.S. Official Reserve Assets

-2,722

-5,318

2,033

-165

3,537

-59

-673

-545

-72,228

-69,873

-56,258

-27,492

-10,001

-37,125

-76,666

-45,529

114,218

94,841

84,715

79,736

46,526

80,390

99,458

77,928

Foreign Official Assets

37,759

22,308

-421

19,691

9,162

10,977

24,311

19,386

Other Foreign Assets

76,459

72,533

85,136

60,045

37,364

69,413

75,147

58,542

U.S. Private Assets

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

G ross S aving

G ross P rivate Saving

G ross P rivate
D om estic In v e s tm e n t

U.S. N et
F ore ig n In v e s tm e n t
O/ (

Period

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

1991:1
2
4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

1992: 1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

1993: 1
2
3
4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3

13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7

15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
■2.4

1995:1
2
3

1006.0
983.8
NA

14.4
14.0
NA

1126.4
1090.0
NA

16.1
15.5
NA

1107.8
1094.1
1113.4

15.9
15.6
15.7

-160.4
-177.3
NA

-2.3
-2.5
NA

3

Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S-




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
7.4
35.4
24.6
15.2
14.1
14.7
11.1
3.7
11.6
10.2
11.8
13.4
14.3
11.4
12.5
11.9
10.9
10.7
10.8

4-90
70.7
34.1
18.0
15.9
16.2
11.7
3.2
12.1
10.5
12.2
14.0
14.9
11.8
12.9
12.2
11.2
10.8
u .o

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

5.4
-1.9
1.8
5.5
2.6
-5.1
5.6
4.7
7.1
9.5
10.8
7.9
9.3
8.9
8.0
7.9
8.2

-8.7
0.1
5.6
2.0
-7.1
5,6
4.6
7.3
9.9
11.4
8.1
9.7
9.1
8.2
8.1
8.4

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92

9.7
13.6 17.6
5.8
3.9 -8.2
-6.7 -11.5 -23.3
8.7
8,5 5.6
7.0
6.4
3.8
9.9
9.9
8.4
12.5 12.9 12.2
13.9 14.4 14.0
10.0 10.0 9.1
11.5 11.7 11.0
10.8 10.9 10.2
9.6
9.6
8.9
9.4
9.4
8.7
9.6
9.6
9.0
3-91 4-91 1-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
3-92 4-92 1-93

2-93

3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6

-35.8
13 3 100.2
-1.4
8.2 40.5
12.7
13.0 36.5
19.1
16.8 35.6
18.2 33,5 20.6
11.2
11.8 22.7
13.7 23.4
13.9
12.2
12.5 20.7
10.8
17.8
10.2
10.4
9.7
16.5
10.6
16,2
10 1
2-92 3-92 4-92

238.6

28.8
30.9 33.1
29.0 29.1 25.3
10.2
0.3 -19.7
14.6
14.4 8.8
17.2
1.4 28.1
12.1
7.4
14.7
2.0 14.9 3.1
12.0
9.4
5.2 0.7
8.6 -0.1
11.2
8.9
5.3
1.7
7.9
1.9
6.4
3.5
8.9 4.6
11.4
9.4
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

-3.1
1.4
5.1

3-94

6.1
9.4 12.9
4-94 1-95

283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
349.8
360.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31, 1995

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)

Period

Corporate
ProfitsÇI)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Capitai
Dividends Consumption

Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

3
4

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

1993: 1
2
3
4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3

324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8

572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9

1995: 1
2
3

569.7
581.1
NA

349.8
360.6
NA

217.1
219.9
223.7

445.3
454.7
461.0

-39.0
-28.2
-7.4

38.1
35.2
35.4

616.9
623.7
NA

1991: 1
2

3
4
1992: 1

2

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit( - ) /Surplus(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

0

0

-5 0

-50
T<>tal

•100

— -v
N

-1 5 0 .

-1 0 0

\
V

✓

_

r✓

______

✓

Federal

■200

-2 0 0
"

/ ^ . /
/ ✓
/ /

\ \
\ \

..... “ ..............\

a
-3 0 0

'

I

'

1

1989

1

1

1990

"...r "'" I

1

1991

-2 5 0

V /

1

1

1

1992

... /

-2 5 0

-3 5 0

•150

^

/
-3 0 0

1

1..._ r H
1993

'......I..... 1
1994

1

1

!.....

-3 5 0

1995

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Private
by Federal
Investors
Reserve Banks

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal Debt

991: March
June
September
December

3465.4
3539.0
3678.0
3785.6

881,3
885.5
922.7
959.4

2585.6
2655.2
2755.9
2822.4

252.4
254.2
267.8
274.2

2343.4
2409.1
2498.2
2560.2

462.0
475.0
481.2
488.1

992: March
June
September
December

3884.6
3984.8
4078.7
4157.2

980.3
998.0
1019.4
1036.8

2905.2
2989.9
3059.5
3116.5

273.1
275.7
299.7
294.9

2646.7
2723.9
2775.2
2635.9

505.8
532.0
538.9
545.4

993: March
June
September
December

4237.1
4351.4
4426.9
4512.2

1061.6
1089.4
1119.9
1140.6

3175.8
3266.0
3307.0
3367.4

311.4
326.5
329.0
336.1

2877.6
2950.0
2993.9
3042.4

562.0
570.7
595.2
618.0

994: March
June
September
December

4585.2
4644.5
4709.1
4774.7

1162.5
1191.9
1216.2
1242.9

3422.8
3456.8
3492.5
3527.7

349.4
355.6
358.7
365.9

3077.1
3099.8
3139.5
3162.1

629.6
636.7
659.9
682.9

995: March
June

4875.1
4949.7

1277.8
1304.8

3598.2
3649.2

376.6
386.6

3221.4
3256.4

726.6
788.3

Period

Federal Debt hel
by Foreign
Investors

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR E A S U R Y BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RE SE RVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Federal
PeriodReceipts
Expenditures
1991: 1
1120.1
1264.5

Federal. State and Local
Surplus/
Deficit(-)
>144.4

Period

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

1734.0

1868.4

-134.4

144.3

1744.7

1937.4

1768.5

1964.2

-192.8
-195.8

154.7

1121.8

1329.4

-207.6

1132.5

1346.0

-213.6

1140.5

1386.3

-245.8

1155.7

1435.6

-279.9

1991: 1
2
3
4
1992:1

2

1171.0

1455.8

-284.8

3

1166.5

1460.4

-293.9

4
1993:1
2
3
4
1994: 1

1219.9

1492.0

-272.1

1212.7

1496.2

-283.5

1263.7

1500.6

-237.0

2
3
4
1992:1

G
151.7

1788.7

2009.4

-220.7

162.6

2073.5

-260.0

164.6

2

1813.5
1836.9

2005.8

-258.9

172.8

3

1837.0

2110.5

-273.5

174.6

4
1993:1
2
3
4
1994: 1

1908.8

2147.9

-239.1

176.6

1901.C
1965.1

2162.9
2176.7

-261.9
-211.6

176.7
182.9
187.8

1272.7

1497.6

-224.9

1313.6

1533.7

-220.1

1337.4

1513.7

-176.2

2

1380.7

1525.9

-145.1

3

1388.8

1542.8

-154.0

4
1995: 1

1408.8

1569.9

-161.1

2303.4

-132.3

205.5

1589.6

-148.6

4
1995: 1

2171.1

1441.0
1475.5

1605.1

-129.6

2

2331.7
2357.9

-120.4

2

2211.2
2251.6

-106.2

211.0
215.7

3

NA

1615.0

NA

3

NA

NA

NA

220.7

1980.9

2181.9

-201.0

2035.4

2221.0

-185.6

197.0

2066.5

2217.6

-151.1

190.0

2

2121.9

2240.1

-118.1

194.4

3

2138.8

2268.9

-130.1

200.3

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local governm ent are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total governm ent m easures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Estimate
Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$1,357
1.518

$1,257.7

$1,153.5
1.408.7

$1,090.5

1,460,9

1,380,9

$1,054.3
1.323.4

$1,031.3
1.252.7

-161

-203.2

-255.1

-290.4

-269.2

-221.4

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$1,379.0

$1,265.7

$1,178.3

$1,128.7

$1,111.4

1.538.1

1.507.0

1.460.9

1.331.6

1.274.9

-159.1

-241.4

-282.7

-202.9

-163.5

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through Septem ber 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimate is Congressional Budget Office baseline projection from TH E E C O N O M IC & B U D G E T O U TLO O K : U P D A TE (August 1995).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Termina
Quarter
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-2.8
-0.6
1.6
-0.2 1.1
0,6
3.9
2.0
2.2
0.8
3.4
2.2
2.4
2.9
1.2
3.2
4.0
4.1
5.4
2.9
1.9
4.4
5.4
3.6
4.6
2.4
3.3
3.2
2.7
3.0
3 1
1.9
2.6
5.7
6.1
3.7
5.0
7.0
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.1
5.0
3.1
3.8
6.5
7.1
5.5
6.1
4.4
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.0
6.5
4.2
4.9
6.5
6.8
7.3
4.9
5.6
6.0
6.6
6.9
7.3
5.7
5.1
6.1
7.2
7.5
7.9
6.6
5.6
6.3
7.4
5.4
6.8
7.0
6.0
6.3
6.7
6.9
7.3
5.5
6.0
6.3
7.1
5.7
6.2
6.5
6.9
7.5
7.1
6.4
6.7
7.3
7.6
5.9

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5.4
1.9
7.5
4.9
7.4
6.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.8

-1.5
8.5
4.8
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8.6
7.9
7.7
7.8
8.0

19.6
8.1
11.3
9.1
10.0
9.5
10.1
9.1
8.7
8.8
8.9

-2.3
7.3
5.8
7.7
7.6
8.6
7.7
7.5
7.7
7.9

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

17.9
10.1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5
8.9
9.0
9.1

2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5
7.8
8.1

13.5
10.4
11.5
9.1
6.5
8.6
8.8

7.4
10.5
7.7
7.2
7.7
8.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

13.6
7.8
7.2
7.7
8.2

2.4
4.1
5.9
6.9

5.9
7.7
8.4

9.5
9.7

9.9

1.115.8
1,120.1
1.121.8
1,132.5
1,140.5
1,155.7
1,171.0
1,166.5
1.219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1,272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1,380.7
1,388.8
1.408.8
1,441.0
1,475.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31, 1995

Second quarter data are final estimates.

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90
-12.4
3.5
4.0
6.1
7.8
7.5
6.6
6.8
6.2
5.7
5.1
5.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6

22.2
13.3
13.0
13.5
11.9
10.1
9.9
8.8
7.9
7.0
7.3
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.6

4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5.1
8.7
10.8
9.5
7.8
8.0
7.0
6.2
5.4
5.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7

12.5
13.8
11.0
8.5
8.6
7.3
6.4
5.5
6.0
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7

15.0
10.3
7,2
7.6
6,3
5.4
4.5
5.2
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.2

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

5.7
3.5
5.3
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.4

1.3
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.3
3.5
2.3
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.2

8.9
5.0
3.7
2.5
4.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.4

1.1
1.2

0.5
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.2
0.2 -0.8
3.4
4.5 10.0
1.2
1.2 2.2 -5.1
1.7
1.6
2.5 -1.0 3.3
2.1
2.2
3.0
0.8
3.9
4.5
2.8
3.1
2.4
3.8
5.0
5.9
7.2
3.1
3.3
4.1
2.9
5.0
5.6
6.2
5,1
4.5
3.4
5.4
3.2
4.0
3.1
4.8
5.2
3.8
4.7
3.1
3.3
3.8
3.0 4.4
4.6
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Annual Rates
1-95 2-95

4.0
3.2

2.5

1-95 2-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31, 1995

27

1,264.5
1,329.4
1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1,460.4
1,492.0
1,496.2
1,500.6
1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1,569.9
1,589.6
1,605.1
1,615.0

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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