Full text of National Economic Trends : May 2013
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NationalEconomicTrends May 2013 This publication contains charts and tables compiled by the Data Desk staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data are related to the state of the U.S. economy: output, inflation, labor markets, interest rates, government budgets, international trade, and more. Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 29 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits FOMC Economic Projections Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 5 0.8 4 0.6 3 0.4 2 0.2 1 0.0 0 -0.2 -0.4 -1 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 18263 2010 18628 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 2.0 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 5 1.5 10-Year Treasury 4 1.0 3 0.5 2 0.0 1 -0.5 3-Month Treasury -1.0 0 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 600 10.4 500 10.0 400 9.6 300 9.2 200 8.8 100 8.4 0 8.0 -100 7.6 -200 7.2 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 -10 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 12 1 2 13 1 3 1 4 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 6 8 Final Sales 6 4 Advance Second Third Annual Revision 4 2 2 0 0 GDP (bar) -2 -2 18628 2011 18993 2012 2013 19359 2012:1 19724 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 Industrial Production and ISM Index Nominal Gross Domestic Product Percent change Compounded annual rates of change Index 68 2 2013:1 8 Industrial Production (bar/left scale) 1 62 0 56 -1 50 6 4 2 ISM (right scale) -2 44 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 0 -2 18628 19724 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 1.00 19724 34.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0.00 33.50 -0.25 -0.50 33.25 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Real Change in Private Inventories 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2005 dollars Manufacturing and trade 100 1.30 1.29 75 1.28 50 1.27 25 1.26 1.25 0 1.24 -25 1.23 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 Consumption Imports 12Q2 12Q3 Exports Inventories 12Q4 13Q1 Government Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Final Sales 2.47 2.35 1.56 2.35 1.71 2.38 1.90 1.47 Consumption 0.70 1.18 1.45 1.72 1.06 1.12 1.28 2.24 Fixed Investment 1.39 1.75 1.19 1.18 0.56 0.12 1.69 0.53 1.30 1.71 0.93 0.74 0.36 -0.19 1.28 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.26 0.43 0.19 0.31 0.41 0.31 Government -0.16 -0.60 -0.43 -0.60 -0.14 0.75 -1.41 -0.80 Federal 0.23 -0.36 -0.35 -0.34 -0.02 0.71 -1.23 -0.65 -0.39 -0.24 -0.08 -0.26 -0.12 0.04 -0.18 -0.14 Net Exports 0.54 0.02 -0.64 0.06 0.23 0.38 0.33 -0.50 Exports Imports 0.56 0.83 0.21 0.60 0.72 0.27 -0.40 0.40 -0.02 -0.81 -0.85 -0.54 -0.49 0.11 0.73 -0.90 Change in Inventory 0.01 -1.07 2.53 -0.39 -0.46 0.73 -1.52 1.03 Residual 0.03 -0.25 0.14 -0.13 -0.06 0.17 -0.28 -0.17 Real GDP Growth 2.48 1.28 4.09 1.96 1.25 3.11 0.38 2.50 Nonresidential Residential State and Local Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 12 10 10-Year Treasury 8 6 4 3-Month Treasury 2 0 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 2.5 2.0 Apr 2012 1.5 ||| || || || || 1.0 Apr 2013 Week Ending: 04/26/2013 0.5 0.0 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 04/30/13 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 -2 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Excl. Food and Energy 2 All Items 0 -2 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 12 8 Excl. Food and Energy 4 0 PPI -4 -8 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel Dollars per million btu 150 5 Gross Domestic Purchases 4 30 125 3 100 2 75 1 50 GDP (bar) -1 2011 18628 2013 19359 19724 15 10 Spot Gas (right scale) 5 Gas Futures (right scale) 0 2012 18993 20 Oil Futures (left scale) 25 0 25 Spot Oil (left scale) 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: Futures prices as of 5/1/2013. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 9 6 6 4 PCE (bar) CPI (bar) 3 2 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -3 Excl. Food & Energy -2 -6 -4 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 19724 18628 2011 2012 18993 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 20 12 15 Excl. Food & Energy 19359 2013 19724 Nonfarm 6 10 0 5 Manufacturing (bar) 0 -6 PPI (bar) -5 -10 -12 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 19724 18263 2010 18628 2011 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 18993 2012 19359 12 4 9 3 6 2 Benefits 1 || ||| Compensation ||| || || Wages and Salaries 3 0 0 -3 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 04/05/13 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 -6 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 6.00 28 5.25 25 4.50 22 3.75 19 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 3.00 16 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 2.25 13 10 1.50 Median (right scale) 0.75 7 0.00 4 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/09/13 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 350 60 300 50 250 40 200 30 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 -10 -50 -20 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 19724 Change in Household Employment 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 19724 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 1.8 1000 750 Pop. 1.2 500 0.6 250 0.0 90% Confidence 0 -250 -500 Labor Force -0.6 -1.2 -750 -1.8 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 19724 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Available Labor Supply and Components Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent of labor force Percent 16 11 8 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 10 12 9 10 8 8 7 6 Unemployed 4 Want to Work 2 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 7 6 90% Confidence Available Labor Supply 14 Percent Job Openings Rate (right scale) 5 4 6 3 5 2 4 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 1 2008 17532 2009 17898 2010 18263 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 2014 19724 20089 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 12 1 2 13 1 3 1 4 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 10 0 9 -3 8 87 8 7 88 8 8 89 8 9 90 9 0 91 9 1 92 9 2 93 9 3 94 9 4 95 9 5 96 9 6 97 9 7 98 9 8 99 9 9 00 0 0 01 0 1 02 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 09 0 9 11 10 1 0 1 1 12 1 2 1 3 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/29/13 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 4 10 2 8 0 6 -2 4 -4 2 -6 0 2011-01-01 2011 2012 2012-01-01 2013-01-01 2013 2014-01-01 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 Real Consumption Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 5 0.8 4 0.6 3 0.4 2 0.2 1 0.0 0 -0.2 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 -0.4 -1 2011-01-01 2011 2012 2012-01-01 2013-01-01 2013 2014-01-01 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 2012 2013-01-01 2013 2014-01-01 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 3 Millions of vehicles, annual rate 6 2 4 Total (bar) 17 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) 15 1 0 Ex. Autos -1 -2 2 13 0 11 -2 2011 18628 2012 18993 2013 19359 19724 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) 18628 Durables (bar) (left scale) 2011 18993 9 2012 19359 2013 19724 Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 90 22.5 80 15.0 70 7.5 60 0.0 50 -7.5 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 2011-01-01 2011 2012-01-01 2012 2013-01-01 2013 2014-01-01 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 10 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 30 Equipment & Software 24 18 12 6 Nonresidential 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 11 10 10 11 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 25 30 20 20 12 12 13 13 14 Orders 10 15 0 10 Equipment & Software Investment -10 5 -20 0 -30 -5 -40 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 17532 2008 17898 2009 18263 2010 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 2013 19724 -5 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Real Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 25 1.1 0.55 20 1.0 0.50 Millions, annual rate 0.9 15 0.8 10 0.7 5 0.45 New Home Sales (right scale) || | 0.40 0.35 0.6 0 0.5 -5 0.4 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 18628 0.30 Housing Starts (left scale) 0.25 0.20 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2005 dollars Percent of GDP 39 2700 2400 Total Expenditures 2100 33 Total 1800 1500 Total Receipts 27 State & Local 1200 Fed. Expenditures 900 21 Federal 600 Fed. Receipts 300 15 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1996 1045.1 1022.1 23.0 1526.4 1674.7 -148.3 1453.1 1560.5 -107.4 1997 1099.5 1063.2 36.3 1656.2 1716.3 -60.1 1579.2 1601.1 -21.9 1998 1164.5 1117.6 46.9 1777.9 1744.3 33.6 1721.7 1652.5 69.3 1999 1240.4 1198.6 41.8 1895.0 1796.2 98.8 1827.5 1701.8 125.6 2000 1322.6 1281.3 41.3 2057.1 1871.9 185.2 2025.2 1789.0 236.2 2001 1374.0 1389.9 -15.9 2020.3 1979.8 40.5 1991.1 1862.8 128.2 2002 1412.7 1466.8 -54.1 1859.3 2112.1 -252.8 1853.1 2010.9 -157.8 2003 1496.3 1535.1 -38.8 1885.1 2261.5 -376.4 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6 2004 1601.0 1609.3 -8.3 2013.9 2393.4 -379.5 1880.1 2292.8 -412.7 2005 1730.4 1704.5 25.9 2290.1 2573.1 -283.0 2153.6 2472.0 -318.3 2006 1829.7 1778.6 51.1 2524.5 2728.3 -203.8 2406.9 2655.1 -248.2 2007 1923.1 1910.8 12.3 2654.7 2900.0 -245.3 2568.0 2728.7 -160.7 2008 1944.8 2017.0 -72.2 2502.2 3115.7 -613.5 2524.0 2982.5 -458.6 2009 1961.4 2074.6 -113.2 2226.5 3455.8 -1229 2105.0 3517.7 -1413 2010 2042.4 2132.1 -89.7 2395.4 3703.4 -1308 2162.7 3457.1 -1294 2011 2064.4 2166.3 -101.9 2519.6 3757.0 -1237 2303.5 3603.1 -1300 2012 2069.5 2198.5 -129.0 2675.7 3757.7 -1082 2450.2 3537.1 -1087 2011Q2 2098.0 2172.6 -74.6 2522.9 3830.6 -1308 714.1 855.2 -141.1 2011Q3 2045.2 2163.2 -118.0 2511.3 3743.3 -1232 568.5 894.7 -326.3 2011Q4 2040.5 2157.0 -116.5 2534.3 3716.8 -1183 555.4 877.2 -321.7 2012Q1 2050.4 2178.1 -127.7 2664.9 3723.6 -1059 508.9 966.2 -457.2 2012Q2 2066.7 2190.3 -123.6 2659.5 3774.8 -1115 759.7 885.0 -125.3 2012Q3 2069.2 2209.2 -140.0 2673.4 3760.6 -1087 625.0 810.0 -185.0 2012Q4 2091.9 2216.4 -124.5 2705.0 3771.6 -1067 615.6 908.9 -293.3 2013Q1 . 2221.4 . . 3730.5 . 581.1 888.2 -307.2 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 110 4 100 2 90 Unified Budget 0 80 Total -2 70 NIPA -4 60 -6 50 -8 40 Held by Public 30 -10 20 -12 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 16 1000 12 500 8 0 Total Total 4 Excl. interest payments -500 -1000 0 Held by Public -1500 -4 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 2009 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 2010 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.2 2011 14790.3 4658.3 10132.0 1664.7 8462.4 4912.2 2012 16066.2 4791.9 11274.4 1645.3 9619.4 5475.4 March 11126.9 4290.6 6836.3 492.3 6341.7 3265.7 June 11545.3 4368.8 7176.5 656.5 6518.5 3460.8 September 11909.8 4355.3 7554.5 769.2 6782.7 3570.6 December 12311.4 4497.0 7814.4 776.6 7034.4 3685.1 March 12773.1 4478.9 8294.3 776.7 7513.3 3877.9 June 13201.8 4562.6 8639.2 777.0 7856.7 4070.0 September 13561.6 4534.0 9027.6 811.7 8211.1 4324.2 December 14025.2 4629.8 9395.4 1021.5 8368.9 4435.6 March 14270.1 4613.6 9656.6 1340.5 8311.1 4481.4 June 14343.1 4596.2 9746.9 1619.5 8122.7 4690.6 September 14790.3 4658.3 10132.0 1664.7 8462.4 4912.2 December 15222.9 4770.4 10452.5 1663.5 8783.3 5007.4 March 15582.1 4730.1 10852.0 1661.1 9185.1 5148.3 June 15856.4 4806.8 11049.5 1659.9 9379.7 5312.4 September 16066.2 4791.9 11274.4 1645.3 9619.4 5475.4 December 16432.7 4846.2 11586.6 1666.1 9909.1 NA 2009 2010 2011 2012 3570.6 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 80 10 60 8 Investment Income (left scale) 40 6 20 4 0 2 -20 0 -40 -2 Current Account (right scale) -60 -80 -100 -4 -6 -8 Goods and Services (left scale) -120 -140 -10 -12 -160 -14 -180 -16 -200 -18 -220 -20 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Exchange Rates 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 80 Euro (right scale) Ecu (right scale) 75 60 0 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 Goods Export Shares, 2012 UK 3.50% 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 Goods Import Shares, 2012 Mexico 12.07% Mexico 13.83% China 18.51% UK 2.39% China 7.07% All Other 31.56% Japan 6.37% Japan 4.48% Germany 3.12% France 1.97% Germany 4.72% All Other 27.78% Canada 14.10% Canada 18.70% Other OECD 15.76% France 1.81% Other OECD 12.24% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/14/13 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 25 Goods and Services -12 20 Exports -24 15 -36 10 -48 5 Imports -60 0 Goods -72 18628 2011 -5 2012 18993 19359 2013 19724 18628 2011 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 2012 18993 19359 2013 19724 14 12 -30 Exports 10 8 -60 6 -90 4 2 -120 Imports 0 -150 -2 18263 2010 2011 18628 18993 2012 19359 18628 2011 18993 2012 19359 2013 19724 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 6 12 4 8 2 4 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -4 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 10 2010 11 Canada 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 -3 -2 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 12 2012 13 12 2012 13 France 9 10 2011 12 2012 13 10 2010 11 Japan 2011 Mexico 9 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 6 3 0 -3 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 10 2010 11 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 18 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 12 80 6 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -6 50 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 13 14 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 12 8 Nonfinancial Corporations 4 0 Nonfarm Business Sector -4 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 9 9 6 6 3 3 0 0 -3 -3 2010 18263 2011 18628 2012 18993 19359 2010 18263 2011 18628 2012 18993 19359 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 75 15 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 11 71 9 69 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 7 67 65 5 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 14 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 03/22/13 National Economic Trends March 2013 Projections Change in Real GDP (Q4/Q4) Percent 6 3 Actual 0 -3 -6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Long Run 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Long Run 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Long Run 2015 Long Run Unemployment Rate (Q4) Percent 11 9 7 Actual 5 3 2007 2008 2009 Change in PCE Price Index (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Change in PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy Prices (Q4/Q4) Percent 4 3 Actual 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/22/13 National Economic Trends FOMC Quarterly Projections for 2013 and 2014: A Timeline Change in Real GDP for 2013 Change in Real GDP for 2014 Percent Percent 6 6 5 5 4 4 Nov. 2011 3 2 3 Nov. 2010 Mar. 2013 2 Mar. 2013 1 1 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 Unemployment Rate for 2013 (Q4) Unemployment Rate for 2014 (Q4) Percent Percent 10 2013 10 Mar. 2013 8 8 Mar. 2013 6 6 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2011 4 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 Change in PCE Price Index for 2013 Change in PCE Price Index for 2014 Percent Percent 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Mar. 2013 Nov. 2011 Mar. 2013 Nov. 2010 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2013 Change in PCE Core Price Index for 2014 Percent Percent 3 2 3 Nov. 2010 2 Mar. 2013 1 1 0 Mar. 2013 Nov. 2011 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 04/26/13 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2005 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 2009. 13973.7 . -2.2 12757.933 . -3.1 12899.691 . -2.3 . -139.013 2010. 14498.9 . 3.8 13062.966 . 2.4 13010.287 . 0.9 . 50.914 2011. 15075.7 . 4.0 13299.103 . 1.8 13265.277 . 2.0 . 31.022 2012. 15684.8 . 4.0 13593.233 . 2.2 13539.356 . 2.1 . 42.974 2010 1 14270.3 3.9 2.5 12947.560 2.3 1.9 12914.678 0.1 0.3 30.499 -93.829 . 2 14413.5 4.1 3.8 13019.593 2.2 2.5 12985.355 2.2 0.7 33.220 -39.145 . 3 14576.0 4.6 4.5 13103.500 2.6 2.8 13005.501 0.6 0.6 94.908 29.961 . 4 14735.9 4.5 4.3 13181.209 2.4 2.4 13135.613 4.1 1.7 45.029 50.914 2011 1 14814.9 2.2 3.8 13183.780 0.1 1.8 13154.403 0.6 1.9 30.344 50.875 . 2 15003.6 5.2 4.1 13264.662 2.5 1.9 13234.143 2.4 1.9 27.540 49.455 . 3 15163.2 4.3 4.0 13306.922 1.3 1.6 13311.155 2.3 2.4 -4.326 24.647 . 4 15321.0 4.2 4.0 13441.048 4.1 2.0 13361.406 1.5 1.7 70.532 31.023 2012 1 15478.3 4.2 4.5 13506.429 2.0 2.4 13440.138 2.4 2.2 56.948 37.674 . 2 15585.6 2.8 3.9 13548.540 1.3 2.1 13497.854 1.7 2.0 41.404 41.140 . 3 15811.0 5.9 4.3 13652.519 3.1 2.6 13577.396 2.4 2.0 60.281 57.291 . 4 15864.1 1.4 3.5 13665.444 0.4 1.7 13642.036 1.9 2.1 13.260 42.973 2013 1 16010.2 3.7 3.4 13750.077 2.5 1.8 13691.768 1.5 1.9 50.318 41.316 Consumption Billions of 2005 $ Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2009. 9032.601 . -1.9 1109.109 . -5.4 1602.236 . -19.0 1259.845 . -18.1 2010. 9196.162 . 1.8 1178.250 . 6.2 1598.660 . -0.2 1268.478 . 0.7 2011. 9428.842 . 2.5 1262.592 . 7.2 1704.458 . 6.6 1378.156 . 8.6 2012. 9603.336 . 1.9 1360.913 . 7.8 1853.068 . 8.7 1487.871 . 8.0 2010 1 9100.836 2.5 0.7 1135.919 5.5 4.1 1553.115 -0.9 -7.4 1222.689 2.1 -7.7 -0.3 . 2 9159.354 2.6 1.8 1164.522 10.5 7.3 1606.516 14.5 0.8 1258.550 12.3 . 3 9215.995 2.5 1.9 1184.896 7.2 4.1 1602.672 -1.0 1.4 1282.144 7.7 3.7 . 4 9308.465 4.1 2.9 1227.665 15.2 9.5 1632.338 7.6 4.9 1310.530 9.2 7.7 2011 1 9380.907 3.1 3.1 1249.392 7.3 10.0 1626.971 -1.3 4.8 1306.285 -1.3 6.8 . 2 9403.231 1.0 2.7 1242.277 -2.3 6.7 1675.405 12.5 4.3 1351.329 14.5 7.4 . 3 9441.884 1.7 2.5 1258.582 5.4 6.2 1736.799 15.5 8.4 1411.263 19.0 10.1 . 4 9489.346 2.0 1.9 1300.117 13.9 5.9 1778.658 10.0 9.0 1443.746 9.5 10.2 12.5 2012 1 9546.818 2.4 1.8 1336.076 11.5 6.9 1820.635 9.8 11.9 1470.042 7.5 . 2 9582.549 1.5 1.9 1335.282 -0.2 7.5 1840.574 4.5 9.9 1482.938 3.6 9.7 . 3 9620.117 1.6 1.9 1364.011 8.9 8.4 1844.794 0.9 6.2 1476.084 -1.8 4.6 . 4 9663.860 1.8 1.8 1408.284 13.6 8.3 1906.270 14.0 7.2 1522.421 13.2 5.4 2013 1 9740.005 3.2 2.0 1436.067 8.1 7.5 1925.490 4.1 5.8 1530.286 2.1 4.1 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/30/13 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2009. 109.532 . 0.9 2010. 111.002 . 2011. 113.369 . 2012. 115.388 2010 1 . 2 . . Employment Cost Index Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 108.5 . 1.2 1.6 111.3 . 2.6 1.7 115.1 . 3.4 . 1.8 117.8 . 2.3 111.4 1.8 1.5 110.3 4.9 2.0 111.9 1.8 1.6 110.9 2.2 2.5 1.9 112.3 1.4 1.6 111.7 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.1 112.8 1.8 1.7 112.2 1.8 2.9 2.1 2.0 113.2 1.4 1.6 113.6 5.1 3.0 3.9 109.8 . 1.5 110.3 . 1.6 1.3 111.9 . 1.9 112.1 . 2.1 114.3 . 2.2 114.0 . . 1.8 116.5 . 1.9 116.0 110.234 1.5 0.6 111.1 2.6 1.6 110.686 1.7 1.3 111.6 1.8 1.9 3 111.248 2.0 1.6 112.1 1.8 4 111.838 2.1 1.8 112.7 2011 1 112.389 2.0 2.0 113.3 . 2 113.109 2.6 2.2 114.2 3.2 2.3 113.8 2.1 1.7 115.2 5.8 . 3 113.937 3.0 2.4 114.6 1.4 2.2 114.2 1.4 1.7 115.4 0.7 3.3 . 4 114.041 0.4 2.0 115.1 1.8 2.1 114.7 1.8 1.7 116.2 2.8 3.6 2012 1 114.608 2.0 2.0 115.7 2.1 2.1 115.3 2.1 1.9 116.7 1.7 2.7 . 2 115.050 1.6 1.7 116.3 2.1 1.8 115.8 1.7 1.8 117.4 2.4 1.9 . 3 115.807 2.7 1.6 116.8 1.7 1.9 116.3 1.7 1.8 118.1 2.4 2.3 . 4 116.085 1.0 1.8 117.3 1.7 1.9 116.7 1.4 1.7 118.8 2.4 2.2 2013 1 116.423 1.2 1.6 117.7 1.4 1.7 117.3 2.1 1.7 118.4 -1.3 1.5 Exports Billions of 2005 $ Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2005 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 1.4 2009. 1498.658 . -9.1 1853.839 . -13.5 106.069 . 2.9 113.117 . 2010. 1665.553 . 11.1 2085.212 . 12.5 109.392 . 3.1 115.473 . 2.1 2011. 1776.855 . 6.7 2184.862 . 4.8 110.052 . 0.6 118.439 . 2.6 2012. 1837.325 . 3.4 2238.045 . 2.4 110.820 . 0.7 120.153 . 1.4 2010 1 1608.233 5.9 10.7 1980.923 10.4 6.7 108.940 3.1 4.9 114.551 1.8 2.7 . 2 1645.408 9.6 13.1 2074.155 20.2 16.7 108.815 -0.5 3.1 115.346 2.8 1.8 . 3 1683.919 9.7 12.1 2142.808 13.9 15.9 109.665 3.2 2.6 115.823 1.7 1.8 . 4 1724.650 10.0 8.8 2142.960 0.0 10.9 110.141 1.7 1.9 115.914 0.3 1.6 2011 1 1748.828 5.7 8.7 2165.407 4.3 9.3 109.793 -1.3 0.8 118.705 10.0 3.6 . 2 1766.423 4.1 7.4 2165.996 0.1 4.4 109.953 0.6 1.0 118.460 -0.8 2.7 . 3 1792.875 6.1 6.5 2190.765 4.7 2.2 109.919 -0.1 0.2 118.234 -0.8 2.1 . 4 1799.294 1.4 4.3 2217.280 4.9 3.5 110.541 2.3 0.4 117.888 -1.2 1.7 0.7 2012 1 1818.678 4.4 4.0 2234.201 3.1 3.2 110.350 -0.7 0.5 119.519 5.6 . 2 1842.119 5.3 4.3 2249.558 2.8 3.9 110.827 1.7 0.8 119.873 1.2 1.2 . 3 1850.878 1.9 3.2 2246.105 -0.6 2.5 111.672 3.1 1.6 120.220 1.2 1.7 . 4 1837.623 -2.8 2.1 2222.315 -4.2 0.2 111.142 -1.9 0.5 120.996 2.6 2.6 2013 1 1850.759 2.9 1.8 2251.520 5.4 0.8 . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 04/05/13 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 2008 . 145373 -677 . -0.5 136849 -793 . -0.6 105.9 . . -1.1 2009 . 139894 -5480 . -3.8 130859 -5990 . -4.4 98.6 . . -6.9 2010 . 139077 -817 . -0.6 129911 -948 . -0.7 98.8 . . 0.2 2011 . 139882 805 . 0.6 131500 1589 . 1.2 101.3 . . 2.5 2012 . 142469 2587 . 1.8 133737 2237 . 1.7 103.9 . . 2.7 2011 1 139456 310 0.9 0.6 130663 379 1.2 1.0 99.9 0.3 1.2 2.1 . 2 139564 108 0.3 0.2 131315 652 2.0 1.0 101.0 1.1 4.3 2.4 . 3 139848 284 0.8 0.4 131734 419 1.3 1.4 101.7 0.7 2.7 2.6 . 4 140660 813 2.3 1.1 132287 553 1.7 1.5 102.4 0.7 2.9 2.8 2012 1 141882 1222 3.5 1.7 133058 771 2.4 1.8 103.5 1.0 4.2 3.5 . 2 142228 346 1.0 1.9 133509 451 1.4 1.7 103.7 0.2 0.9 2.7 . 3 142463 235 0.7 1.9 133918 409 1.2 1.7 104.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 . 4 143303 841 2.4 1.9 134463 545 1.6 1.6 104.6 0.6 2.3 2.1 2013 1 143367 63 0.2 1.0 135047 584 1.7 1.5 105.3 0.6 2.6 1.7 2011 Mar 139643 172 1.5 0.6 130865 205 1.9 1.1 100.5 0.6 7.5 2.6 . Apr 139606 -37 -0.3 0.2 131169 304 2.8 1.1 101.0 0.5 6.1 2.6 . May 139681 75 0.6 0.3 131284 115 1.1 0.8 100.9 -0.1 -1.2 2.1 . Jun 139405 -276 -2.3 0.2 131493 209 1.9 1.1 101.1 0.2 2.4 2.5 . Jul 139509 104 0.9 0.2 131571 78 0.7 1.2 101.6 0.5 6.1 2.6 . Aug 139870 361 3.1 0.3 131703 132 1.2 1.3 101.4 -0.2 -2.3 2.3 . Sep 140164 294 2.6 0.6 131928 225 2.1 1.5 102.0 0.6 7.3 2.8 . Oct 140314 150 1.3 0.9 132094 166 1.5 1.5 102.2 0.2 2.4 2.5 . Nov 140771 457 4.0 1.2 132268 174 1.6 1.5 102.4 0.2 2.4 2.9 . Dec 140896 125 1.1 1.1 132498 230 2.1 1.6 102.6 0.2 2.4 2.9 2012 Jan 141608 712 6.2 1.7 132809 311 2.9 1.8 103.3 0.7 8.5 3.9 . Feb 142019 411 3.5 1.8 133080 271 2.5 1.9 103.6 0.3 3.5 3.7 . Mar 142020 1 0.0 1.7 133285 205 1.9 1.8 103.5 -0.1 -1.2 3.0 . Apr 141934 -86 -0.7 1.7 133397 112 1.0 1.7 103.6 0.1 1.2 2.6 . May 142302 368 3.2 1.9 133522 125 1.1 1.7 103.7 0.1 1.2 2.8 . Jun 142448 146 1.2 2.2 133609 87 0.8 1.6 103.8 0.1 1.2 2.7 . Jul 142250 -198 -1.7 2.0 133762 153 1.4 1.7 104.0 0.2 2.3 2.4 . Aug 142164 -86 -0.7 1.6 133927 165 1.5 1.7 103.8 -0.2 -2.3 2.4 . Sep 142974 810 7.1 2.0 134065 138 1.2 1.6 104.2 0.4 4.7 2.2 . Oct 143328 354 3.0 2.1 134225 160 1.4 1.6 104.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 . Nov 143277 -51 -0.4 1.8 134472 247 2.2 1.7 104.7 0.5 5.9 2.2 . Dec 143305 28 0.2 1.7 134691 219 2.0 1.7 104.9 0.2 2.3 2.2 2013 Jan 143322 17 0.1 1.2 134839 148 1.3 1.5 104.7 -0.2 -2.3 1.4 . Feb 143492 170 1.4 1.0 135107 268 2.4 1.5 105.5 0.8 9.6 1.8 . Mar 143286 -206 -1.7 0.9 135195 88 0.8 1.4 105.6 0.1 1.1 2.0 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/01/13 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr 2008 . 5.8 4393.940 . . -1.2 96.6232 . . -3.4 1.37 3.67 2009 . 9.3 4080.144 . . -7.1 85.7213 . . -11.3 0.15 3.26 2010 . 9.6 4306.360 . . 5.5 90.5915 . . 5.7 0.14 3.21 2011 . 8.9 4650.751 . . 8.0 93.6372 . . 3.4 0.05 2.79 2012 . 8.1 4884.041 . . 5.0 97.0316 . . 3.6 0.09 1.80 3.46 2011 1 9.0 1136.788 2.5 10.3 7.9 92.6324 0.6 2.6 4.8 0.13 . 2 9.0 1154.588 1.6 6.4 8.1 92.8555 0.2 1.0 2.9 0.05 3.21 . 3 9.0 1168.321 1.2 4.8 8.6 93.9839 1.2 5.0 2.6 0.02 2.43 . 4 8.7 1191.054 1.9 8.0 7.4 95.0770 1.2 4.7 3.3 0.01 2.05 2012 1 8.3 1209.562 1.6 6.4 6.4 96.3341 1.3 5.4 4.0 0.07 2.04 . 2 8.2 1208.388 -0.1 -0.4 4.7 97.0312 0.7 2.9 4.5 0.09 1.82 . 3 8.0 1223.988 1.3 5.3 4.8 97.0990 0.1 0.3 3.3 0.10 1.64 . 4 7.8 1242.103 1.5 6.1 4.3 97.6619 0.6 2.3 2.7 0.09 1.71 2013 1 7.7 1254.181 1.0 3.9 3.7 98.8614 1.2 5.0 2.6 0.09 1.95 2011 Apr 9.0 383.810 0.4 5.5 7.2 92.5765 -0.6 -6.7 3.7 0.06 3.46 . May 9.0 383.733 -0.0 -0.2 7.9 92.9126 0.4 4.4 2.5 0.04 3.17 2.4 0.04 3.00 Jun 9.1 387.045 0.9 10.9 9.2 93.0774 0.2 2.1 . Jul 9.0 388.064 0.3 3.2 9.2 93.6088 0.6 7.1 2.4 0.04 3.00 . Aug 9.0 388.718 0.2 2.0 8.4 94.1212 0.5 6.8 2.7 0.02 2.30 . Sep 9.0 391.539 0.7 9.1 8.2 94.2216 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.01 1.98 . Oct 8.9 396.633 1.3 16.8 8.2 94.7474 0.6 6.9 3.5 0.02 2.15 . Nov 8.6 397.370 0.2 2.3 7.3 94.9598 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.01 2.01 . Dec 8.5 397.051 -0.1 -1.0 6.6 95.5239 0.6 7.4 3.0 0.01 1.98 2012 Jan 8.3 400.197 0.8 9.9 6.5 96.1959 0.7 8.8 3.9 0.03 1.97 . Feb 8.3 402.559 0.6 7.3 6.2 96.6672 0.5 6.0 4.9 0.09 1.97 . Mar 8.2 406.806 1.1 13.4 6.5 96.1393 -0.5 -6.4 3.2 0.08 2.17 . . Apr 8.1 404.112 -0.7 -7.7 5.3 96.8572 0.7 9.3 4.6 0.08 2.05 . May 8.2 403.641 -0.1 -1.4 5.2 97.1042 0.3 3.1 4.5 0.09 1.80 . Jun 8.2 400.635 -0.7 -8.6 3.5 97.1322 0.0 0.3 4.4 0.09 1.62 1.53 . Jul 8.2 403.587 0.7 9.2 4.0 97.5571 0.4 5.4 4.2 0.10 . Aug 8.1 407.696 1.0 12.9 4.9 96.7850 -0.8 -9.1 2.8 0.10 1.68 . Sep 7.8 412.705 1.2 15.8 5.4 96.9549 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.11 1.72 1.75 . Oct 7.9 411.997 -0.2 -2.0 3.9 96.8409 -0.1 -1.4 2.2 0.10 . Nov 7.8 414.036 0.5 6.1 4.2 98.0321 1.2 15.8 3.2 0.09 1.65 . Dec 7.8 416.070 0.5 6.1 4.8 98.1127 0.1 1.0 2.7 0.07 1.72 2013 Jan 7.9 415.797 -0.1 -0.8 3.9 98.0345 -0.1 -1.0 1.9 0.07 1.91 . Feb 7.7 420.100 1.0 13.2 4.4 99.0731 1.1 13.5 2.5 0.10 1.98 . Mar 7.6 418.284 -0.4 -5.1 2.8 99.4765 0.4 5.0 3.5 0.09 1.96 . Apr . . . . . . . . . 0.06 1.76 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 27 updated through 04/17/13 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Year to date Index Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 2008 . 215.254 . . 3.8 . 215.565 . . 2.3 . 177.3 . . 6.4 2009 . 214.567 . . -0.3 . 219.235 . . 1.7 . 172.8 . . -2.5 2010 . 218.085 . . 1.6 . 221.336 . . 1.0 . 180.0 . . 4.2 2011 . 224.935 . . 3.1 . 225.006 . . 1.7 . 190.8 . . 6.0 2012 . 229.604 . . 2.1 . 229.754 . . 2.1 . 194.5 . . 1.9 2011 1 222.027 1.1 4.4 2.1 4.4 223.052 0.5 1.8 1.1 1.8 187.4 2.4 10.0 4.8 . 2 224.565 1.1 4.7 3.4 4.5 224.337 0.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 190.7 1.8 7.3 6.7 . 3 226.178 0.7 2.9 3.7 4.0 225.784 0.6 2.6 1.9 2.3 192.2 0.8 3.1 7.0 . 4 226.971 0.4 1.4 3.3 3.3 226.851 0.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 193.0 0.4 1.7 5.5 2012 1 228.269 0.6 2.3 2.8 2.3 228.042 0.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 193.7 0.4 1.6 3.4 . 2 228.841 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.7 229.409 0.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 192.8 -0.5 -1.8 1.1 . 3 230.030 0.5 2.1 1.7 1.8 230.308 0.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 195.2 1.2 5.0 1.6 . 4 231.277 0.5 2.2 1.9 1.9 231.258 0.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 196.2 0.5 2.0 1.7 2013 1 232.103 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 232.459 0.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 196.5 0.2 0.7 1.4 2011 Mar 223.106 0.5 6.7 2.6 4.9 223.405 0.1 1.7 1.2 2.1 188.9 0.7 8.6 5.4 . Apr 223.879 0.3 4.2 3.0 4.7 223.771 0.2 2.0 1.3 2.1 190.2 0.7 8.6 6.3 . May 224.747 0.4 4.8 3.5 4.7 224.351 0.3 3.2 1.5 2.3 191.0 0.4 5.2 6.8 . Jun 225.070 0.1 1.7 3.6 4.2 224.888 0.2 2.9 1.6 2.4 190.9 -0.1 -0.6 7.0 . Jul 225.594 0.2 2.8 3.6 4.0 225.353 0.2 2.5 1.8 2.4 192.0 0.6 7.1 7.3 . Aug 226.187 0.3 3.2 3.7 3.9 225.906 0.2 3.0 1.9 2.5 191.4 -0.3 -3.7 6.5 . Sep 226.753 0.3 3.0 3.9 3.8 226.093 0.1 1.0 2.0 2.3 193.1 0.9 11.2 7.0 5.9 . Oct 226.728 -0.0 -0.1 3.5 3.4 226.457 0.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 192.5 -0.3 -3.7 . Nov 227.049 0.1 1.7 3.5 3.3 226.860 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 193.3 0.4 5.1 5.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 -0.1 -1.2 4.7 . Dec 227.137 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.0 227.236 0.2 193.1 2012 Jan 227.605 0.2 2.5 3.0 2.5 227.739 0.2 2.7 2.3 2.7 193.3 0.1 1.2 4.1 . Feb 228.253 0.3 3.5 2.9 3.0 227.945 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.9 193.9 0.3 3.8 3.4 . Mar 228.950 0.3 3.7 2.6 3.2 228.443 0.2 2.7 2.3 2.1 194.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 . Apr 228.951 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.4 228.945 0.2 2.7 2.3 2.3 193.6 -0.2 -2.4 1.8 . May 228.648 -0.1 -1.6 1.7 1.6 229.406 0.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 192.4 -0.6 -7.2 0.7 . Jun 228.924 0.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 229.877 0.2 2.5 2.2 2.3 192.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 . Jul 228.836 -0.0 -0.5 1.4 1.3 230.097 0.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 193.2 0.4 4.5 0.6 . Aug 230.026 0.5 6.4 1.7 1.9 230.236 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.0 195.2 1.0 13.2 2.0 . Sep 231.227 0.5 6.4 2.0 2.4 230.591 0.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 197.2 1.0 13.0 2.1 . Oct 231.623 0.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 230.991 0.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 196.9 -0.2 -1.8 2.3 . Nov 231.071 -0.2 -2.8 1.8 1.9 231.258 0.1 1.4 1.9 1.9 196.0 -0.5 -5.3 1.4 . Dec 231.137 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 231.526 0.1 1.4 1.9 1.9 195.6 -0.2 -2.4 1.3 2013 Jan 231.198 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 232.108 0.3 3.1 1.9 3.1 196.0 0.2 2.5 1.4 . Feb 232.770 0.7 8.5 2.0 4.3 232.512 0.2 2.1 2.0 2.6 197.3 0.7 8.3 1.8 . Mar 232.340 -0.2 -2.2 1.5 2.1 232.758 0.1 1.3 1.9 2.1 196.2 -0.6 -6.5 1.1 Research Division 28 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Second, and Third GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2005 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the January 2008 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 2002 NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Statistics). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 430,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. The Job Openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 77 percent of the value of GDP in 2000, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Pages 22, 23: The economic projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are published four times a year. Except for the unemployment rate, the projections for the current and following years are on a Q4/Q4 horizon. The shaded area represents the range of the economic projections of the FOMC members, and the dot signifies the mid-point of the ranges. The projections of the changes in the total PCE price index and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) are presumed to converge over time. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. -1), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 29
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