Full text of National Economic Trends : May 2005
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NationalEconomicTrends May 2005 Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation S ocial Security is a publicly run, mandatory retirement program. A number of analysts have suggested that the program be privatized. I discuss here the difference between the current Social Security program and an effectively equivalent private program with respect to wealth accumulation and saving at the individual and national levels. Under current law, Social Security requires each covered worker to pay into the program 12.4 percent of their taxable income (6.2 percent each from employee and employer). In return, those covered by Social Security receive payments that are determined by several factors, including age at retirement and the amount of payroll tax contributions made while working. In an essentially equivalent private program, the government could require each covered worker (and/or the employer) to pay into a private investment account 12.4 percent of their taxable income and prevent workers from accessing these accounts until they retired. In the private program, however, workers would own their accumulated contributions and earnings. That is, workers would accumulate wealth. Individuals would thereby have considerable flexibility. They could be given some discretion on how the funds are invested. Moreover, unlike the one-size-fits-all approach of Social Security, individuals could be given considerable discretion as to how the funds would be disbursed upon retirement. Those who were interested in providing their children with opportunities they never had might decide to work longer and pass all or most of their wealth to their heirs. Alternatively, individuals with relatively short life expectancies might opt to retire at the earliest possible date and/or disburse funds more quickly. In the event of an untimely death, the wealth accumulated in their account could be passed to their heirs or given to philanthropic causes. This flexibility could be particularly important to low- and moderate-income earners who may find it difficult to save beyond what they are required to contribute to Social Security. Private accounts would give these earners a greater opportunity to accumulate wealth that they could use at their discretion, which would provide them opportunities not available under the obligatory Social Security annuity. Economists have long known that current consumption and investment—at both the individual and national levels—do not depend so much on current income as on permanent income, which is to say, wealth. It is difficult to estimate how much private wealth accumulation would have differed had Social Security been administered privately rather than publicly. However, the Social Security trust fund balance—the accumulated Social Security tax receipts less Social Security payments plus earnings—at the end of 2004 was $1.68 trillion, about two-fifths as large as the federal debt held by the public. Whereas private savings are channeled through financial markets and ultimately lent to individuals, businesses, and governments—state, local, and federal—currently, the Social Security trust funds are not being allocated through competitive financial markets and are not earning a market-determined rate of return. Thus, unlike private saving, Social Security taxes are not directly available to finance private spending and investment. This year’s Social Security tax receipts are used to pay this year’s Social Security benefits. In years when tax receipts are greater than benefits paid, Social Security experiences a surplus. If the surplus were used to reduce the national debt, the funds available for private consumption or investment would be essentially the same as under a private system. This has not been the case, however. Since the early 1980s, Social Security has been running a persistent surplus. Instead of reducing the national debt and, thereby, increasing the pool of funds available for private spending, most often Social Security surpluses have been used to fund “on-budget” deficit spending. This practice has had the effect of making the unified budget deficit smaller than would have been the case had Social Security been privately run. In reporting to Congress recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan noted that “[t]he major attraction of personal or private accounts is that they can be constructed to be truly segregated from the unified budget and, therefore, are more likely to induce the federal government to take those actions that would reduce public dissaving and raise national saving.”1 The government would not be able to simply divert Social Security surpluses to cover on-budget deficits. Rather, it would have to compete in financial markets with private investors for private savings. The extent to which fostering private wealth accumulation and increasing the flow of funds into competitive financial markets would promote economic growth or reduce the incentives for government borrowing (and spending) is difficult to say. Nevertheless, it is clear that the current system diverts funds from competitive financial markets and reduces the control that low- and moderate-income earners have over their retirement funds. —Daniel L. Thornton 1 Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan, Future of the Social Security Program and Economics of Retirement, before the Special Committee on Aging, U.S. Senate, March 15, 2005. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 10 0.8 8 0.6 6 0.4 4 0.2 2 0.0 0 -0.2 -0.4 -2 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15341 2002 15706 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 1.5 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 7 6 1.0 10-Year Treasury 5 0.5 4 0.0 3 -0.5 3-Month Treasury 2 -1.0 1 -1.5 0 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 400 6.5 300 6.0 200 100 5.5 0 -100 5.0 -200 -300 4.5 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 7 8 Advance Preliminary Final Annual Revision 6 Final Sales 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 0 1 GDP (bar) 0 -2 15706 2003 16071 2004 2005 16437 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change 2004:1 16802 12 62 10 0.6 56 8 0.0 50 6 44 4 38 2 32 0 ISM (right scale) -0.6 Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) -1.2 -1.8 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 2004:4 2005:1 Compounded annual rates of change 68 1.2 2004:3 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index 1.8 2004:2 15706 16802 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 34.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0.00 -0.25 33.50 -0.50 -0.75 -1.00 33.25 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Real Change in Private Inventories 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2000 dollars Manufacturing and trade 90 1.44 75 1.42 60 1.40 45 1.38 30 1.36 15 1.34 0 1.32 -15 1.30 -30 1.28 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 03Q2 03Q3 03Q4 04Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 05Q1 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2003 2004 2005 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Final Sales 5.12 6.84 3.72 3.32 2.52 4.97 3.39 1.88 Consumption 2.72 3.58 2.50 2.90 1.10 3.57 2.92 2.45 Fixed Investment 1.55 2.59 1.57 0.69 2.07 1.37 1.65 0.82 1.10 1.50 1.07 0.42 1.21 1.27 1.46 0.49 0.44 1.09 0.50 0.27 0.86 0.09 0.19 0.32 1.40 -0.23 0.33 0.48 0.18 0.33 0.09 0.04 1.35 0.03 0.31 0.48 0.41 0.13 0.16 0.10 Nonresidential Residential Federal Government State and Local Imports -0.05 0.26 -0.02 0.00 0.23 -0.20 0.07 0.06 -0.34 -0.39 -2.22 -1.46 -1.77 -0.69 -1.67 -2.19 Change in Inventory -1.01 0.57 0.47 1.17 0.78 -0.97 0.46 1.21 Exports -0.15 1.02 1.55 0.70 0.70 0.59 0.32 0.69 Net Exports -0.50 0.64 -0.66 -0.76 -1.06 -0.10 -1.35 -1.49 Residual 0.05 -0.10 0.02 0.02 0.01 -0.10 -0.09 0.01 Real GDP Growth 4.11 7.41 4.19 4.49 3.30 4.00 3.85 3.09 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 5.25 4.75 Apr 2005 4.25 3.75 Week Ending: 04/29/2005 3.25 2.75 2.25 1.75 Apr 2004 1.25 0.75 0.25 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 04/29/05 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 6 Excl. Food and Energy 3 All Items 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Excl. Food and Energy 5 0 PPI -5 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel 5 Dollars per million btu 60 4 22 20 55 Gross Domestic Purchases 50 Spot Oil (left scale) 45 3 40 18 Oil Futures (left scale) 16 14 35 2 1 30 12 10 25 8 20 6 15 0 Spot Gas (right scale) 10 GDP (bar) 5 -1 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: Futures prices as of 04/29/2005. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 4 Gas Futures (right scale) 8 8 6 6 CPI (bar) PCE (bar) 4 4 2 2 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -2 Excl. Food & Energy -2 -4 -6 -4 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15706 2003 16071 2004 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 24 15 16 16437 2005 16802 10 PPI (bar) Manufacturing (bar) 8 5 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -8 Nonfarm -5 -16 -10 -24 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15341 2002 15706 2003 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 8 16071 2004 16437 8 6 6 Benefits Compensation 4 4 Wages and Salaries 2 2 0 0 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 04/01/05 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 See the Notes section at the end of this publication for the Feb. 7, 2003, revisions to the Household Survey, and the June 6, 2003, revisions to the Establishment Survey. Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 4.50 16 3.75 14 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 3.00 12 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 400 50 300 0 200 100 -50 0 -100 -100 -200 -300 -150 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Change in Household Employment 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 3.0 1050 2.5 700 90% Confidence 2.0 350 0 1.5 Pop. 1.0 0.5 Labor Force -350 0.0 -700 -0.5 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Available Labor Supply and Components 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Index Percent of labor force Percent 11 8.0 95 7.5 90 7.0 9 Available Labor Supply 85 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 6.5 6.0 8 5.5 7 5.0 6 4.5 4.0 Unemployed 5 80 90% Confidence 10 Index 75 70 65 60 55 3.5 50 3.0 4 45 Help-Wanted (right scale) 2.5 3 40 2.0 Want to Work 35 1.5 2 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 30 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 2006 16802 17167 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 10 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/29/05 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 5 6 4 3 4 2 1 2 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Real Consumption 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 8 1.6 6 0.8 4 0.0 2 -0.8 0 -1.6 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change Millions of vehicles, annual rate 9 3 20 Durables (bar) (left scale) 6 19 1 3 18 0 0 17 2 Ex. Autos Total (bar) -1 16 -3 Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -6 -2 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15706 2003 16071 15 2004 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 120 2005 16437 16802 30 110 20 100 10 90 0 0 80 70 -10 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 5 Nonresidential 0 -5 -10 -15 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 Gross Govt. Saving 5 0 BOCA -5 -10 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 21 30 18 04 04 05 05 06 20 15 10 12 9 Equipment & Software Investment 0 6 -10 3 Orders -20 0 -3 -30 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 25 20 20 2005 16802 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Real Residential Fixed Investment 15706 2003 2004 16071 16437 2005 16802 Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 25 3.1 Millions, annual rate 1.48 2.9 20 2.7 15 2.5 10 5 1.40 New Home Sales (right scale) 1.32 1.24 2.3 1.16 2.1 1.08 1.9 1.00 0.92 1.7 0 Housing Starts (left scale) 1.5 -5 0.84 1.3 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15706 0.76 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2000 dollars Percent of GDP 2000 35 Total Expenditures 1800 Total 1600 30 1400 Total Receipts 1200 State & Local 25 1000 Fed. Expenditures 800 20 600 Federal 400 Fed. Receipts 200 15 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local 1991 Federal Federal Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) 789.2 793.3 -4.1 1101.3 1315.0 -213.7 1055.0 1324.3 -269.3 -290.3 Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1992 845.7 845.0 0.7 1147.2 1444.6 -297.4 1091.3 1381.6 1993 886.9 886.0 0.9 1222.5 1496.0 -273.5 1154.4 1409.5 -255.1 1994 942.9 932.4 10.5 1320.8 1533.1 -212.3 1258.6 1461.9 -203.2 1995 990.2 978.2 12.0 1406.5 1603.5 -197.0 1351.8 1515.8 -164.0 1996 1043.3 1017.5 25.8 1524.0 1665.8 -141.8 1453.1 1560.5 -107.5 1997 1097.4 1058.3 39.1 1653.1 1708.9 -55.8 1579.3 1601.2 -21.9 1998 1163.2 1111.2 52.0 1773.8 1734.9 38.9 1721.8 1652.6 69.2 1999 1236.7 1186.3 50.4 1891.2 1787.6 103.6 1827.5 1701.9 125.5 2000 1319.5 1269.5 50.0 2053.8 1864.4 189.4 2025.2 1789.1 236.2 2001 1373.0 1368.2 4.8 2016.2 1969.5 46.7 1991.2 1863.0 128.2 2002 1411.9 1436.9 -25.0 1847.3 2101.8 -254.5 1853.2 2011.0 -157.8 2003 1494.9 1498.1 -3.2 1877.0 2241.6 -364.6 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6 2004 1585.3 1567.8 17.5 1965.7 2341.2 -375.5 1880.1 2292.2 -412.1 2003Q1 2170.2 -281.6 397.7 542.6 -144.9 1437.7 1486.6 -48.9 1888.6 2003Q2 1484.6 1490.2 -5.6 1902.5 2266.9 -364.4 527.6 544.2 -16.6 2003Q3 1511.4 1504.9 6.5 1816.4 2249.4 -433.0 429.4 536.9 -107.4 2003Q4 1545.8 1510.5 35.3 1900.6 2279.8 -379.2 440.8 570.9 -130.2 2004Q1 1550.6 1538.8 11.8 1915.3 2306.3 -391.0 409.6 580.8 -171.2 2004Q2 1583.9 1565.7 18.2 1949.1 2329.1 -380.0 549.9 575.7 -25.8 2004Q3 1574.7 1570.2 4.5 1965.8 2340.8 -375.0 479.5 565.2 -85.7 2004Q4 1632.0 1596.4 35.6 2032.5 2388.7 -356.2 487.2 605.2 -118.1 2005Q1 . 1625.6 . . 2454.4 . 451.8 628.4 -176.6 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 20 -8 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 8 750 6 500 4 250 Total Excl. interest payments 0 2 0 -250 Held by Public Total -500 -2 -750 -4 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 2002 6228.2 2675.7 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1200.8 2003 6783.2 2859.3 3923.9 656.1 3268.0 1455.8 2004 7379.1 3075.7 4303.4 700.3 3607.0 1886.2 March 5773.7 2339.4 3434.4 523.9 2892.8 1029.9 June 5726.8 2452.6 3274.2 535.1 2722.6 1000.5 September 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1005.5 December 5943.4 2549.7 3393.8 551.7 2819.5 1051.2 March 6006.0 2562.4 3443.7 575.4 2849.2 1067.1 June 6126.5 2662.9 3463.5 590.7 2849.8 1135.4 September 6228.2 2675.7 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1200.8 December 6405.7 2758.3 3647.4 629.4 3018.5 1246.8 March 6460.8 2750.0 3710.8 641.5 3069.9 1285.9 June 6670.1 2853.8 3816.3 652.1 3164.7 1388.8 September 6783.2 2859.3 3923.9 656.1 3268.0 1455.8 December 6998.0 2954.5 4044.1 666.7 3377.9 1535.6 March 7131.1 2954.4 4176.7 674.1 3502.8 1680.8 June 7274.3 3055.6 4218.7 687.4 3531.5 1828.3 September 7379.1 3075.7 4303.4 700.3 3607.0 1886.2 December 7596.1 3189.1 4407.1 717.8 3667.1 1942.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 -110 -120 -130 -140 -150 -160 -170 -180 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 -17 -18 Investment Income (left scale) Current Account (right scale) Goods and Services (left scale) 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 Exchange Rates 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) Yen (right scale) 100 150 Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 Goods Export Shares, 2004 UK 4.45% 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Goods Import Shares, 2004 Mexico 10.58% Mexico 13.72% All Other 23.38% UK 3.15% China 13.35% China 4.30% Japan 6.74% Japan 8.80% All Other 25.43% Germany 3.89% France 2.63% Other OECD 17.36% 91 91 Germany 5.24% France 2.16% Canada 23.55% Canada 17.37% Other OECD 13.92% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/12/05 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 30 25 Imports 20 Goods and Services 15 10 Exports 5 0 Goods -5 15706 2003 2004 16071 16437 2005 16802 15706 2003 16071 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 2004 16437 2005 16802 25 -20 20 -40 -60 Imports 15 -80 -100 10 Exports -120 5 -140 -160 0 -180 -200 -5 15341 2002 2003 15706 16071 2004 16437 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 02 2002 03 Canada 2003 04 2004 05 04 2004 05 04 2004 05 France 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 02 2002 03 Japan 2003 Mexico 30 12 20 6 10 0 0 -10 -6 -20 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 02 2002 03 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 04/15/05 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 04 05 05 06 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 12 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 16437 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 16437 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 75 15 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 71 11 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 9 69 67 7 5 65 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 04/28/05 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 2001. 2002. 10128.0 2003. 2004. 11004.0 2002 1 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 3.2 9890.694 . 3.5 10074.763 . 4.9 10381.347 11735.0 . 6.6 10338.2 4.4 10487.0 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 0.8 9920.940 . 1.9 10063.248 . 3.0 10379.878 10841.885 . 4.4 3.2 9993.478 3.4 1.2 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2000 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago . 1.6 . -31.720 . 1.4 . 11.736 . 3.1 . -0.753 10794.576 . 4.0 . 45.686 10000.391 0.3 1.2 -7.403 -31.630 . 2 10445.7 4.2 3.1 10052.576 2.4 1.5 10044.898 1.8 1.4 7.893 -29.042 . 3 10546.5 3.9 4.1 10117.270 2.6 2.5 10095.165 2.0 2.0 22.687 -15.886 . 4 10617.5 2.7 3.8 10135.922 0.7 2.3 10112.538 0.7 1.2 23.765 11.736 2003 1 10744.6 4.9 3.9 10184.418 1.9 1.9 10173.346 2.4 1.7 9.585 15.983 . 2 10884.0 5.3 4.2 10287.398 4.1 2.3 10302.477 5.2 2.6 -17.629 9.602 . 3 11116.7 8.8 5.4 10472.841 7.4 3.5 10473.871 6.8 3.8 -3.524 3.049 . 4 11270.9 5.7 6.2 10580.729 4.2 4.4 10569.622 3.7 4.5 8.556 -0.753 2004 1 11472.6 7.4 6.8 10697.453 4.5 5.0 10655.807 3.3 4.7 40.020 6.856 . 2 11657.5 6.6 7.1 10784.726 3.3 4.8 10722.276 2.5 4.1 61.073 26.531 . 3 11814.9 5.5 6.3 10891.044 4.0 4.0 10854.725 5.0 3.6 34.502 36.038 . 4 11994.8 6.2 6.4 10994.318 3.8 3.9 10945.498 3.4 3.6 47.150 45.686 2005 1 12182.7 6.4 6.2 11078.155 3.1 3.6 10996.155 1.9 3.2 80.153 55.720 Consumption Billions of 2000 $ 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ 2.5 900.682 . Private Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ 4.3 1629.396 . 6.5 1548.906 1627.331 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . -3.0 1180.536 . -4.2 . -4.9 1075.625 . -8.9 1110.801 . 3.3 1228.624 . 10.6 6910.356 . 7123.388 . 3.1 959.587 . 3.3 1030.621 . 7.4 . 5.1 . 3.8 1099.340 . 6.7 1794.443 . 10.3 7355.559 7632.548 Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago 2002 1 7049.659 1.8 2.9 937.779 -8.5 6.6 1559.618 -4.3 -7.1 1099.786 -9.7 -10.9 . 2 7099.193 2.8 3.3 947.837 4.4 7.8 1545.867 -3.5 -5.8 1072.360 -9.6 -9.9 . 3 7149.941 2.9 3.6 979.297 14.0 10.6 1546.622 0.2 -4.6 1069.502 -1.1 -8.5 . 4 7194.623 2.5 2.5 973.443 -2.4 1.5 1543.516 -0.8 -2.1 1060.853 -3.2 -6.0 2003 1 7242.203 2.7 2.7 973.236 -0.1 3.8 1552.700 2.4 -0.4 1060.508 -0.1 -3.6 . 2 7311.416 3.9 3.0 1019.985 20.6 7.6 1593.382 10.9 3.1 1090.607 11.8 1.7 . 3 7401.724 5.0 3.5 1059.586 16.5 8.2 1660.574 18.0 7.4 1131.069 15.7 5.8 . 4 7466.826 3.6 3.8 1069.678 3.9 9.9 1702.683 10.5 10.3 1161.045 11.0 9.4 2004 1 7543.049 4.1 4.2 1075.462 2.2 10.5 1721.437 4.5 10.9 1172.984 4.2 10.6 . 2 7572.365 1.6 3.6 1074.685 -0.3 5.4 1778.254 13.9 11.6 1207.938 12.5 10.8 . 3 7667.795 5.1 3.6 1118.258 17.2 5.5 1816.148 8.8 9.4 1245.319 13.0 10.1 . 4 7746.982 4.2 3.8 1128.954 3.9 5.5 1861.934 10.5 9.4 1288.257 14.5 11.0 2005 1 7814.241 3.5 3.6 1129.006 0.0 5.0 1884.936 5.0 9.5 1303.005 4.7 11.1 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 04/29/05 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 2001. 2002. 102.402 2003. 2004. 106.003 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Employment Cost Index Index . 2.4 155.0 . 1.7 160.9 . 1.8 167.3 108.298 . 2.2 2002 1 103.470 1.4 . 2 103.853 . 3 104.280 . 4 Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index . 4.1 151.4 . 3.8 156.4 . 4.0 160.9 173.9 . 3.9 1.9 158.8 3.3 4.0 1.5 1.5 160.5 4.4 4.1 156.2 1.7 1.5 161.5 2.5 3.7 156.9 104.786 2.0 1.6 162.8 3.3 3.4 157.7 2.1 2003 1 105.490 2.7 2.0 165.0 5.5 3.9 159.3 4.1 . 2 105.780 1.1 1.9 166.4 3.4 3.7 160.3 2.5 . 3 106.158 1.4 1.8 168.2 4.4 4.1 161.6 3.3 . 4 106.586 1.6 1.7 169.6 3.4 4.2 162.5 2004 1 107.314 2.8 1.7 171.5 4.6 3.9 . 2 108.169 3.2 2.3 173.1 3.8 . 3 108.551 1.4 2.3 174.8 4.0 . 4 109.159 2.3 2.4 176.2 2005 1 110.038 3.3 2.5 177.3 104.097 Exports Billions of 2000 $ 2001. 1036.699 2002. 1012.340 2003. 1031.777 2004. 1120.348 2002 1 . ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index . 3.7 163.8 . 5.0 . 3.3 171.7 . 4.9 . 2.9 182.5 . 6.3 165.0 . 2.5 195.4 . 7.1 154.8 3.7 3.5 168.3 2.7 4.7 3.7 3.6 170.6 5.6 5.0 1.8 3.2 172.7 5.0 4.9 2.8 175.2 5.9 4.8 2.9 178.5 7.7 6.1 2.6 180.9 5.5 6.0 3.0 183.9 6.8 6.5 2.2 3.0 186.7 6.2 6.6 163.5 2.5 2.6 190.9 9.3 6.9 4.0 164.5 2.5 2.6 194.1 6.9 7.3 3.9 165.7 3.0 2.5 196.7 5.5 7.0 3.2 3.9 166.4 1.7 2.4 199.9 6.7 7.1 2.5 3.4 167.4 2.4 2.4 202.0 4.3 5.8 Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index . -5.4 1435.782 . -2.7 118.3 . . -2.3 1484.393 . 1.9 1550.256 . 3.4 123.5 . . 4.4 128.9 . 8.6 1704.034 . 9.9 134.1 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change Year Annual rate ago Percent change Year Annual rate ago Index 139.3 . 4.4 143.8 . 3.2 . 4.4 149.6 . 4.0 . 4.0 156.3 . 4.5 2.4 4.0 991.576 4.7 -9.6 1436.505 12.5 -3.9 122.4 6.8 5.2 142.5 5.2 3.2 2 1017.799 11.0 -4.0 1475.922 11.4 2.1 122.8 1.3 4.0 143.8 3.7 3.5 . 3 1025.517 3.1 1.7 1495.314 5.4 6.3 124.1 4.3 4.7 144.3 1.4 3.4 . 4 1014.456 -4.2 3.5 1529.847 9.6 9.7 124.6 1.6 3.5 144.7 1.1 2.8 2003 1 1010.575 -1.5 1.9 1522.261 -2.0 6.0 125.8 3.9 2.8 146.7 5.6 2.9 . 2 1006.529 -1.6 -1.1 1531.721 2.5 3.8 127.9 6.8 4.2 148.7 5.6 3.4 . 3 1033.794 11.3 0.8 1542.494 2.8 3.2 130.5 8.4 5.2 150.8 5.8 4.5 . 4 1076.220 17.5 6.1 1604.520 17.1 4.9 131.5 3.1 5.5 152.3 4.0 5.3 2004 1 1095.449 7.3 8.4 1645.531 10.6 8.1 132.7 3.7 5.5 153.1 2.1 4.4 . 2 1114.809 7.3 10.8 1695.087 12.6 10.7 134.0 4.0 4.8 155.3 5.9 4.4 . 3 1131.100 6.0 9.4 1714.346 4.6 11.1 134.4 1.2 3.0 157.4 5.5 4.4 . 4 1140.035 3.2 5.9 1761.172 11.4 9.8 135.1 2.1 2.7 158.7 3.3 4.2 2005 1 1159.461 7.0 5.8 1822.667 14.7 10.8 . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 04/01/05 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . 2003 . 2004 . 2003 Thousands Change Percent change Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 136901 3400 . 2.5 131792 2800 . 2.2 103.5 136940 40 . 0.0 131833 41 . 0.0 102.1 . 1.8 . . -1.4 136483 -458 . -0.3 130345 -1487 . -1.1 100.0 . 137734 1252 . 0.9 129999 -347 . -0.3 . -2.0 98.6 139248 1513 . 1.1 131475 1476 . 1.1 . . -1.4 100.3 . . 1.7 . 1 137415 773 2.3 1.0 130093 -169 -0.5 -0.3 99.0 -0.4 -1.7 -1.3 137652 237 0.7 0.9 129845 -248 -0.8 -0.4 98.3 -0.8 -3.1 -2.0 . 2 . 3 137574 -77 -0.2 0.5 129890 45 0.1 -0.3 98.3 0.1 0.3 -1.5 . 4 138296 722 2.1 1.2 130168 278 0.9 -0.1 98.8 0.5 2.0 -0.6 2004 1 138408 112 0.3 0.7 130541 374 1.2 0.3 99.3 0.5 2.0 0.3 . 2 138883 475 1.4 0.9 131325 784 2.4 1.1 100.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 . 3 139608 725 2.1 1.5 131731 406 1.2 1.4 100.6 0.6 2.4 2.3 . 4 140092 484 1.4 1.3 132302 571 1.7 1.6 101.2 0.6 2.4 2.4 2005 1 140295 203 0.6 1.4 132772 470 1.4 1.7 101.7 0.5 2.0 2.3 2003 Mar 137451 86 0.8 0.9 129907 -218 -2.0 -0.4 98.9 0.0 0.0 -1.4 . Apr 137628 177 1.6 1.1 129853 -54 -0.5 -0.4 98.3 -0.6 -7.0 -2.1 . May 137552 -76 -0.7 0.7 129827 -26 -0.2 -0.4 98.2 -0.1 -1.2 -2.0 . Jun 137775 223 2.0 1.0 129854 27 0.2 -0.4 98.3 0.1 1.2 -1.8 . 137511 -264 -2.3 0.8 129857 3 0.0 -0.3 98.3 0.0 0.0 -1.4 . Jul Aug 137593 82 0.7 0.6 129859 2 0.0 -0.3 98.3 0.0 0.0 -1.6 . Sep 137619 26 0.2 0.2 129953 94 0.9 -0.2 98.4 0.1 1.2 -1.5 . Oct 138022 403 3.6 0.7 130076 123 1.1 -0.2 98.8 0.4 5.0 -0.8 . Nov 138457 435 3.8 1.4 130172 96 0.9 -0.1 99.1 0.3 3.7 -0.4 . Dec 138409 -48 -0.4 1.5 130255 83 0.8 0.1 98.6 -0.5 -5.9 -0.7 2004 Jan 138481 72 0.6 0.8 130372 117 1.1 0.1 99.3 0.7 8.9 0.0 . Feb 138334 -147 -1.3 0.7 130466 94 0.9 0.3 99.4 0.1 1.2 0.5 . Mar 138408 74 0.6 0.7 130786 320 3.0 0.7 99.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.4 . Apr 138645 237 2.1 0.7 131123 337 3.1 1.0 99.7 0.4 4.9 1.4 . May 138846 201 1.8 0.9 131373 250 2.3 1.2 100.3 0.6 7.5 2.1 . Jun 139158 312 2.7 1.0 131479 106 1.0 1.3 99.9 -0.4 -4.7 1.6 . 139639 481 4.2 1.5 131562 83 0.8 1.3 100.3 0.4 4.9 2.0 . Jul Aug 139658 19 0.2 1.5 131750 188 1.7 1.5 100.5 0.2 2.4 2.2 . Sep 139527 -131 -1.1 1.4 131880 130 1.2 1.5 100.9 0.4 4.9 2.5 . Oct 139827 300 2.6 1.3 132162 282 2.6 1.6 101.2 0.3 3.6 2.4 . Nov 140293 466 4.1 1.3 132294 132 1.2 1.6 101.1 -0.1 -1.2 2.0 . Dec 140156 -137 -1.2 1.3 132449 155 1.4 1.7 101.2 0.1 1.2 2.6 2005 Jan 140241 85 0.7 1.3 132573 124 1.1 1.7 101.5 0.3 3.6 2.2 . Feb 140144 -97 -0.8 1.3 132816 243 2.2 1.8 101.7 0.2 2.4 2.3 . Mar 140501 357 3.1 1.5 132926 110 1.0 1.6 101.8 0.1 1.2 2.5 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 05/02/05 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . 2003 . 2004 . 2003 . Billions of dollars 4.0 3284.226 4.8 3388.094 5.8 3474.391 6.0 3623.849 5.5 3887.628 1 5.8 884.854 2 6.1 895.092 Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index . 6.6 115.380 . . 3.2 111.266 . . 2.5 110.959 . 4.3 110.932 . . 7.3 115.528 0.9 3.8 3.3 1.2 4.7 3.3 . . Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr . 4.3 5.82 6.03 . . -3.6 3.39 5.02 . . -0.3 1.60 4.61 . -0.0 1.01 4.02 . . 4.1 1.37 4.27 110.825 -0.2 -0.7 0.8 1.16 3.92 109.707 -1.0 -4.0 -1.3 1.04 3.62 . . . 3 6.1 919.020 2.7 11.1 5.0 110.825 1.0 4.1 -0.7 0.93 4.23 . 4 5.9 924.883 0.6 2.6 5.5 112.369 1.4 5.7 1.2 0.92 4.29 2004 1 5.7 946.503 2.3 9.7 7.0 113.920 1.4 5.6 2.8 0.92 4.02 5.6 962.689 1.7 7.0 7.6 115.130 1.1 4.3 4.9 1.08 4.60 . 2 . 3 5.4 977.181 1.5 6.2 6.3 115.893 0.7 2.7 4.6 1.49 4.30 . 4 5.4 1001.255 2.5 10.2 8.3 117.168 1.1 4.5 4.3 2.01 4.17 2005 1 5.3 1014.496 1.3 5.4 7.2 118.217 0.9 3.6 3.8 2.54 4.30 2003 Apr 6.0 297.241 0.0 0.0 2.3 109.538 -0.9 -10.5 -1.1 1.13 3.96 . May 6.1 296.481 -0.3 -3.0 3.7 109.640 0.1 1.1 -1.2 1.07 3.57 . Jun 6.3 301.370 1.6 21.7 4.0 109.942 0.3 3.4 -1.7 0.92 3.33 . 6.2 303.921 0.8 10.6 4.1 110.616 0.6 7.6 -1.0 0.90 3.98 . Jul Aug 6.1 308.875 1.6 21.4 5.1 110.528 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 0.95 4.45 . Sep 6.1 306.224 -0.9 -9.8 5.9 111.331 0.7 9.1 -0.3 0.94 4.27 . Oct 6.0 305.969 -0.1 -1.0 5.3 111.559 0.2 2.5 0.4 0.92 4.29 . Nov 5.9 309.864 1.3 16.4 6.2 112.657 1.0 12.5 1.3 0.93 4.30 . Dec 5.7 309.050 -0.3 -3.1 5.1 112.892 0.2 2.5 2.0 0.90 4.27 2004 Jan 5.7 311.973 0.9 12.0 5.4 113.223 0.3 3.6 2.1 0.88 4.15 . Feb 5.6 313.973 0.6 8.0 7.7 114.426 1.1 13.5 3.1 0.93 4.08 . Mar 5.7 320.557 2.1 28.3 7.8 114.110 -0.3 -3.3 3.2 0.94 3.83 . Apr 5.5 318.330 -0.7 -8.0 7.1 114.736 0.5 6.8 4.7 0.94 4.35 . May 5.6 323.040 1.5 19.3 9.0 115.534 0.7 8.7 5.4 1.02 4.72 . Jun 5.6 321.319 -0.5 -6.2 6.6 115.120 -0.4 -4.2 4.7 1.27 4.73 . 5.5 324.034 0.8 10.6 6.6 115.930 0.7 8.8 4.8 1.33 4.50 . Jul Aug 5.4 323.700 -0.1 -1.2 4.8 116.036 0.1 1.1 5.0 1.48 4.28 . Sep 5.4 329.447 1.8 23.5 7.6 115.714 -0.3 -3.3 3.9 1.65 4.13 . Oct 5.5 332.280 0.9 10.8 8.6 116.649 0.8 10.1 4.6 1.76 4.10 . Nov 5.4 332.392 0.0 0.4 7.3 116.948 0.3 3.1 3.8 2.07 4.19 . Dec 5.4 336.583 1.3 16.2 8.9 117.908 0.8 10.3 4.4 2.19 4.23 2005 Jan 5.2 336.785 0.1 0.7 8.0 117.948 0.0 0.4 4.2 2.33 4.22 . Feb 5.4 338.412 0.5 6.0 7.8 118.176 0.2 2.3 3.3 2.54 4.17 . Mar 5.2 339.299 0.3 3.2 5.8 118.527 0.3 3.6 3.9 2.74 4.50 . Apr . . . . . . . . . 2.78 4.34 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 04/20/05 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index Monthly/ quarterly 2000 . 2001 . 172.2 2002 . 2003 . 179.8 184.0 2004 . 188.9 . 1 183.2 . 2 183.4 . 3 Percent change Annual Year rate ago 181.3 . 186.1 . 190.4 . 193.2 . 2.7 . 196.6 1.0 4.2 2.9 4.2 192.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 2.2 2.3 192.8 0.2 184.4 0.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 193.6 0.4 . 4 184.8 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.9 194.1 2004 1 186.6 1.0 3.9 1.8 3.9 188.6 1.1 4.4 2.8 4.2 2003 3.4 . 2.8 . . 1.6 . . 2.3 Index Monthly/ quarterly . 177.1 . Year to date . . Percent change Annual Year rate ago Producer Price Index Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago . 138.0 . . . 140.7 . . 1.9 . 138.9 . . -1.3 . 143.3 . . 3.2 1.8 . 148.5 . . 3.6 1.4 1.8 1.4 142.7 2.0 8.4 3.3 0.8 1.5 1.1 142.2 -0.4 -1.5 2.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 143.5 0.9 3.8 3.4 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 144.9 1.0 4.0 3.6 195.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 1.9 145.9 0.7 2.8 2.2 196.2 0.6 2.6 1.8 2.2 148.0 1.4 5.8 4.1 . 2.4 . 2.7 . . 2.3 . . 1.5 . . . . 3.9 . 2 . 3 189.4 0.4 1.6 2.7 3.3 197.1 0.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 148.6 0.4 1.6 3.5 . 4 191.0 0.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 198.2 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 151.6 2.0 8.3 4.6 2005 1 192.2 0.6 2.4 3.0 2.4 199.5 0.6 2.6 2.3 2.6 152.7 0.7 2.9 4.6 2003 Mar 184.1 0.4 5.4 3.1 5.6 192.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.0 144.3 1.2 15.3 3.9 . Apr 183.5 -0.3 -3.8 2.3 3.2 192.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.8 142.2 -1.5 -16.1 2.4 . May 183.3 -0.1 -1.3 2.1 2.3 192.9 0.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 141.7 -0.4 -4.1 2.5 . Jun 183.4 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 193.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.0 142.6 0.6 7.9 2.8 . 183.8 0.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 193.4 0.2 2.5 1.5 1.3 142.8 0.1 1.7 3.0 . Jul Aug 184.4 0.3 4.0 2.2 2.3 193.6 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 143.6 0.6 6.9 3.5 . Sep 185.0 0.3 4.0 2.3 2.5 193.7 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 144.1 0.3 4.3 3.6 . Oct 184.8 -0.1 -1.3 2.0 2.1 194.0 0.2 1.9 1.3 1.3 144.8 0.5 6.0 3.4 . Nov 184.6 -0.1 -1.3 1.8 1.8 194.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 144.6 -0.1 -1.6 3.4 . Dec 185.0 0.2 2.6 1.9 1.9 194.2 0.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 145.3 0.5 6.0 4.0 3.2 2004 Jan 185.9 0.5 6.0 2.0 6.0 194.6 0.2 2.5 1.2 2.5 145.7 0.3 3.4 . Feb 186.5 0.3 3.9 1.7 5.0 194.9 0.2 1.9 1.2 2.2 145.6 -0.1 -0.8 2.1 . Mar 187.3 0.4 5.3 1.7 5.1 195.5 0.3 3.8 1.6 2.7 146.4 0.5 6.8 1.5 3.7 . Apr 187.7 0.2 2.6 2.3 4.4 195.9 0.2 2.5 1.8 2.6 147.4 0.7 8.5 . May 188.8 0.6 7.3 3.0 5.0 196.2 0.2 1.9 1.7 2.5 148.3 0.6 7.6 4.7 . Jun 189.3 0.3 3.2 3.2 4.7 196.6 0.2 2.5 1.9 2.5 148.2 -0.1 -0.8 3.9 . 189.2 -0.1 -0.6 2.9 3.9 196.8 0.1 1.2 1.8 2.3 148.3 0.1 0.8 3.9 . Jul Aug 189.3 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 196.9 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 148.5 0.1 1.6 3.4 . Sep 189.6 0.2 1.9 2.5 3.3 197.5 0.3 3.7 2.0 2.3 148.9 0.3 3.3 3.3 . Oct 190.7 0.6 7.2 3.2 3.7 197.9 0.2 2.5 2.0 2.3 151.1 1.5 19.2 4.4 . Nov 191.2 0.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 198.2 0.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 152.1 0.7 8.2 5.2 . Dec 191.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.4 198.5 0.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 151.5 -0.4 -4.6 4.3 2005 Jan 191.3 0.1 0.6 2.9 0.6 198.9 0.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 151.9 0.3 3.2 4.3 . Feb 192.0 0.4 4.5 2.9 2.5 199.4 0.3 3.1 2.3 2.8 152.5 0.4 4.8 4.7 . Mar 193.2 0.6 7.8 3.2 4.3 200.1 0.4 4.3 2.4 3.3 153.6 0.7 9.0 4.9 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2000 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the May 2003 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 1987 SIC system to the 2002 NAICS system. All published NAICS-based labor series have been revised back to at least 1990. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 290,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Most measures of economic activity are now based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 1987 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 27
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