Full text of National Economic Trends : May 2002

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May 2002

NationalEconomicTrends

BTUs in GDP
This spring, the U.S. Congress returned to a topic
that has become a staple of political discussion in
Washington: the role of energy in the economy and,
in particular, the dependence of the U.S. economy on
energy imports.
Since 1973, when President Richard Nixon
announced the goal of making the United States energyindependent by the end of that decade, the nation has
steadily increased its energy imports. This trend is
usually expressed in terms of petroleum imports.
According to statistics from the U.S. Department of
Energy, the United States imported about one-quarter
of all the petroleum it used in the early 1970s. By 2000,
that fraction had risen to nearly 57 percent. When all
sources of energy are considered, not just those from
petroleum products, import shares have not been as
large. As measured by total British thermal units
(BTUs) generated from all sources, the U.S. reliance
on imported energy rose from about 10 percent of
total energy used in the early 1970s to nearly 25
percent in 2000.
Over the same period, however, the United States
has become much more efficient in its use of energy
resources, mitigating the overall dependence of the
economy on foreign energy supplies. Economic theory
suggests that when a factor of production such as
energy is subject to supply uncertainties and price
spikes—like we have seen since the 1970s—the users
of that factor have incentives to economize by substituting other factors and switching toward production
techniques that do not depend so heavily on that factor.
As illustrated in the accompanying chart, the U.S.
economy has, indeed, become much more efficient in
its use of energy over past decades, particularly since
the early 1970s. In terms of energy consumption per
unit of real economic output, efficiency has nearly
doubled. Between 1970 and 2000, the energy needed

to produce one dollar of real gross domestic product
(GDP) declined from nearly 19 thousand BTUs to 10.6
thousand BTUs. Were it not for this improvement in
energy efficiency, the U.S. might very well be even
more dependent on imported energy than it is today.
The chart also shows that, as the U.S. economy has
grown and diversified, domestic energy production has
also declined relative to total output. With energy
production and consumption both falling relative to
GDP, the gap between the two—net energy imports
relative to GDP—has changed little since the 1970s:
In 1973, energy imports amounted to 3.0 thousand
BTUs per dollar of real GDP produced. In 2000, that
measure of energy dependence stood at 2.9 thousand
BTUs. When measured relative to total economic
activity, therefore, these statistics show that the economic significance of energy imports has not changed
substantially over the past quarter-century.
—Michael R. Pakko
Energy Production and Consumption
(Per Dollar of Real GDP)
Thousands of BTUs/Real 1996 Dollars
25

20

Consumption
15

10

Production

5

0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Energy.

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.

w w w.stls.frb.org/research

TableofContents
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire
year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of X
between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is:

100 x

[ ( XX )
t

t –1

4

–1

]

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by
writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. Subscription forms may also be
completed online at www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html. For more information on data in this publication, please visit www.stls.frb.org/fred or call (314) 444-8573.
The entire publication is also available on the Internet at www.stls.frb.org/publications/net.

NationalEconomicTrends

Real GDP Growth

05/03/02

Consumer Price Index

Industrial Production

Interest Rates

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Real Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Industrial Production and ISM Index

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Real Change in Private Inventories

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
2000
2nd

3rd

4th

2001
1st

2nd

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3rd

4th

2002
1st

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Interest Rates

Treasury Yield Curve

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

Consumer Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

NIPA Chain Price Indexes

05/03/02

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: Spot and Futures

Consumer Price Index

Consumption Chain Price Index

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Unit Labor Cost

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Employment

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates

Duration of Unemployment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Available Labor Supply and Components

Unemployment Rate and Help-Wanted Advertising Index

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Real Disposable Personal Income

Real Consumption

Retail and Food Services Sales

Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Income and Household Debt Outstanding

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

Real Disposable Personal Income

05/03/02

Personal Saving Rate

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Retail and Food Services Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Investment

Private Fixed Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Real Equipment & Software Investment

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment

Real Residential Fixed Investment

Housing Starts and New Home Sales

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Government Budgets
Unified Budget

National Income Accounts
State and Local
Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Federal Debt

Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-)

Change in Federal Debt

Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis

Federal Government Debt
Total
Public Debt

Held by
Agencies
and Trusts

Total

Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Total

Foreign and
International

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances

Exchange Rates

Goods Export Shares, 2001
UK
5.66%

All Other
23.18%

Goods Import Shares, 2001

Mexico
14.08%

UK
3.61%

Mexico
11.46%
China
8.92%

China
2.67%
Japan
8.00%

Japan
11.04%

All Other
24.66%

Germany
4.18%

France
2.76%

Germany
5.16%

France
2.64%
Other OECD
16.76%

Canada
22.71%

Other OECD
13.61%

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Canada
18.91%

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
United Kingdom

Germany

Canada

France

Japan

Mexico

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour

Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfarm, Nonfinancial Corporations

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Selected Component Shares of National Income

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05103102

Nominal GUP

1998
1999
2000
2001
1999 1
2

8781.5
9268.6
9872.9
10208.1

Final Sales

Real GDP
Percent chan~e
Annual
Year
Billions
rate
ago
of 1996 $

j~8g~gnLgi18ng~
Billions
Annual
Year
Billions
of $
rate
ago
of 1996 $
5.6
5.5
6.5
3.4

8508.933
8856.541
9223.994
9333.808

4.3
4.1
4.1
1.2

8431.826
8792.031
9167.025
9376.509

Percent chance
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Change in
Private Inventories
Billions of 1996 $
Last qtr YearA’ear ago
76.727
62.106
50.587
—61.650

4.2
4.3
4.3
2.3

9093.1
9161.4
9297.4
9522.5

4.9
3.0
6.1
10.0

5.4
5.3
5.5
6.0

8733.483
8771.221
8871.464
9049.917

3.1
1.7
4.7
8.3

4.0
3.9
4.0
4.4

8651.156
8735.136
8825.577
8956.256

3.0
3.9
4.2
6.1

4.4
4.0
4.4
4.3

83.378
32.737
39.558
92.749

69.285
66.976
58.918
62.106

9668.7
9857.6
9937.5
10027.9

6.3
8.0
3.3
3.7

6.3
7.6
6.9
5.3

9102.499
9229.385
9260.091
9303.923

2.3
5.7
1.3
1.9

4.2
5.2
4.4
2.8

9061.640
9148.501
9201.271
9256.687

4.8
3.9
2.3
2.4

4.7
4.7
4.3
3.4

28.917
78.942
51.725
42.765

48.490
60.042
63.083
50.587

4

10141.7
10202.6
10224.9
10263.3

4.6
2.4
0.9
1.5

4.9
3.5
2.9
2.3

9334.472
9341.739
9310.408
9348.614

1.3
0.3
—1.3
1.7

2.5
1.2
0.5
0.5

9347.828
9364.795
9352.498
9440.915

4.0
0.7
—0.5
3.8

3.2
2.4
1.6
2.0

—27.113
—38.287
—61.923
—119.277

36.580
7.273
—21.140
—61.650

2002 1

10431.3

6.7

2.9

9482.141

5.8

1.6

9501,779

2.6

1.6

—36.158

—63.911

3
4
2000 1
2

3
4
2001

1

2
3

Consumption

1998
1999
2000
2001
1999 1
2

Durables Consumption

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

5683.734
5968.444
6257.816
6450.255

Private Axed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

4.8
5.0
4.8
3.1

726.658
817.834
895.529
955.598

NonresidentialFixed Investment

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

10.5
12.5
9.5
6.7

1479.986
1595.386
1716.207
1682.555

11.4
7.8
7.6
—2.0

1135.921
1228.634
1350.670
1307.973

12.5
8.2
9.9
—3.2

5853.953
593 6. 129
6000.026
6083.6 17

4.9
5.7
4.4
5.7

5.0
4.9
5.0
5.2

780.519
809.499
827.161
854.151

7.1
15.7
9.0
13.7

12.7
12.5
13.8
11.3

1558.242
1582.823
1610.836
1629.669

7.1
6.5
7.3
4.8

8.9
7.6
8.4
6.4

1192.630
1214.882
1244.626
1262.408

6.0
7.7
10.2
5.8

8.5
7.3
9.5
7.4

6171.712
6226.286
6292.122
6341.092

5.9
3.6
4.3
3.1

5.4
4.9
4.9
4.2

892.126
886.460
904.104
899.419

19.0
—2.5
8.2
—2.1

14.3
9.5
9.3
5.3

1683.440
1719.215
1730.056
1732.106

13.9
8.8
2.5
0.5

8.0
8.6
7.4
6.3

1309.449
1347.656
1371.096
1374.460

15.8
12.2
7.1
1.0

9.8
10.9
10.2
8.9

3
4

6388.492
6428.402
6443.852
6540. 275

3.0
2.5
1.0
6.1

3.5
3.2
2.4
3.1

922.425
938.115
940.192
1021.659

10.6
7.0
0.9
39.4

3.4
5.8
4.0
13.6

1740.340
1696.380
1671.592
1621.908

1.9
—9.7
—5.7
—11.4

3.4
—1.3
—3.4
—6.4

1373.911
1320.925
1292.018
1245.040

—0.2
—14.6
—8.5
—13.8

4.9
—2.0
—5.8
—9.4

2002 1

6597.520

3.5

3.3

1000.539

—8.0

8.5

1621.278

—0.2

—6.8

1226.773

—5.7

—10.7

3
4

2000 1
2

3
4

2001 1
2

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Index

1998
1999
2000
2001
1999 1

ECI: ~Yages

Employment Cost Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

103.200
104.660
107.040
109.370

05/03/02

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

1.2
1.4
2.3
2.2

138.0
142.4
149.0
155.0

ECI: Benefits

index

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

3.5
3.2
4.6
4.1

135.6
140.3
146.0
151.4

4.0
3.4
4.1
3.7

143.6
147.6
156.0
163.7

2.4
2.8
5.7
4.9

104.100
104.450
104.810
105.280

1.7
1.4
1.4
1.8

1.3
1.4
1.4
1.6

140.2
141.8
143.1
144.6

1.1
4.6
3.7
4.3

3.0
3.3
3.2
3.4

138.1
139.7
140.9
142.3

1.8
4.7
3.5
4.0

3.3
3.6
3.2
3.5

145.2
146.7
148.2
150.2

0.0
4.2
4.2
5.5

2.2
2.5
2.8
3.4

106.250
106.810
107.310
107.780

3.7
2.1
1.9
1.8

2.1
2.3
2.4
2.4

146.6
148.3
149.8
151.1

5.6
4.7
4.1
3.5

4.6
4.6
4.7
4.5

143.9
145.4
146.7
147.9

4.6
4.2
3.6
3.3

4.2
4.1
4.1
3.9

153.1
155.1
157.0
158.8

7.9
5.3
5.0
4.7

5.4
5.7
5.9
5.7

4

108.650
109.220
109.830
109.800

3.3
2.1
2.3
—0.1

2.3
2.3
2.3
1.9

152.8
154.3
155.7
157.3

4.6
4.0
3.7
4.2

4.2
4.0
3.9
4.1

149.4
150.9
152.0
153.4

4.1
4.1
2.9
3.7

3.8
3.8
3.6
3.7

160.8
162.5
164.7
166.8

5.1
4.3
5.5
5.2

5.0
4.8
4.9
5.0

2002 1

110.020

0.8

1.3

158.7

3.6

3.9

154.8

3.7

3.6

168.6

4.4

4.9

2
3
4

2000 1
2

3
4

2001 1
2
3

Expo~s

1998
1999
2000
2001
1999 1

2
3
4

2000 1
2

3
4

2001 1
2
3
4

2002 1

lmpo~s

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

1002.420
1034.852
1133.204
1081.691

Nonf arm Compensation/Hr

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Billions
of 1996 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

2.1
3.2
9.5
—4.5

1223.500
1351.721
1532.260
1490.433

11.8
10.5
13.4
—2.7

110.3
112.9
116.6
118.8

2.6
2.4
3.3
1.9

119.2
124.4
132.5
140.1

5.4
4,4
6.5
5,7

1007.560
1018.015
1041.766
1072.056

—6.8
4.2
9.7
12.1

0.4
2.5
5.5
4.5

1290.592
1331.390
1375.106
1409.808

8.4
13.3
13.8
10.5

9.0
9.5
11.9
11.5

112.2
111.8
112.7
114.8

2.5
—1.4
3.3
7.7

2.4
1.8
2.2
3.0

122.2
123.5
125.1
126.6

3.7
4.3
5.3
4.9

4.5
4.1
4.2
4.5

1095.457
1130.581
1159.306
1147.470

9.0
13.5
10.6
—4.0

8.7
11.1
11.3
7.0

1466.565
1523.380
1570.554
1568.541

17.1
16.4
13.0
—0.5

13.6
14.4
14.2
11.3

114.8
116.7
117.2
117.8

0.0
6.8
1.7
2.1

2.3
4.4
4.0
2.6

128.7
131.2
133.6
136.5

6.8
8.0
7.5
9.0

5.3
6.2
6.8
7.8

1144.061
—1.2
1108.299 —11.9
1052.230 —18.8
1022.176 —10.9

4.4
—2.0
—9.2
—10.9

1548.585 —5.0
1515.039 —8.4
1463.194 —13.0
1434.916 —7.5

5.6
—0.5
—6.8
—8.5

117.8
118.4
118.7
120.2

0.0
2.1
1.0
5.2

2.6
1.5
1.3
2.0

138.1
139.7
141.0
141.8

4.8
4.7
3.8
2.3

7.3
6.5
5.5
3.9

1487.599

—3.9

1039.056

6.8

—9.2

15.5

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment
Thousands Change
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001

129572
131472
133503
135219
135043

2852
1900
2031
1716
—176

2000

1
2
3
4

134995
135246
134987
135649

703
251
—259
662

2001

1
2
3
4

135804
135221
134839
134308

2002

1

2000 Apr

05/03/02

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Thousands Change

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours

Percent chance
Annual Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

2.6
2.6
2.4
2.2
0.4

141.4
145.2
148.4
151.4
150.6

3.5
2.7
2.2
2.1
—0.5

2.3
1.5
1.5
1.3
—0.1

122676
125845
128901
131757
132223

3087
3168
3056
2857
470

2.1
0.7
—0.8
2.0

1.6
1.5
1.1
1.0

130984
131854
131927
132264

877
870
74
336

2.7
2.7
0.2
1.0

2.5
2.6
2.1
1.7

151.0
151.5
151.5
151.6

0.7
0.3
0.0
0.0

3.0
1.2
0.2
0.2

2.7
2.4
1.9
1.1

155
—583
—381
—532

0.5
—1.7
—1.1
—1.6

0.6
—0.0
—0.1
—1.0

132559
132483
132358
131510

295
—76
—125
—848

0.9
—0.2
—0.4
—2.5

1.2
0.5
0.3
—0.6

152.0
151.4
150.3
148.8

0.2
—0.4
—0.7
—1.0

1.0
—1.5
—3.0
—3.8

0.6
—0.0
—0.8
—1.8

133894

—414

—1.2

—1.4

131202

—308

—0.9

—1.0

148.6

—0.1

—0.5

—2.2

Jun

135549
134954
135235

494
—595
281

4.5
—5.1
2.5

2.0
1.2
1.4

131683
131909
131969

242
226
60

2.2
2.1
0.5

2.6
2.7
2.5

151.8
151.1
151.5

0.3
—0.5
0.3

3.2
—5.4
3.2

2.8
2.2
2.2

Jul
Aug
Sep

134777
135016
135167

—458
239
151

—4.0
2.1
1.4

1.0
1.0
1.1

131899
131837
132046

—70
—62
209

—0.6
—0.6
1.9

2.2
2.0
2.0

151.6
151.3
151.7

0.1
—0.2
0.3

0.8
—2.3
3.2

2.0
1.7
2.0

Oct
Dec

135485
135573
135888

318
88
315

2.9
0.8
2.8

1.1
0.9
1.0

132145
132279
132367

99
134
88

0.9
1.2
0.8

1.8
1.7
1.5

151.8
151.8
151.2

0.1
0.0
—0.4

0.8
0.0
—4.6

1.5
1.3
0.7

2001 Jan
Feb
Mar

135870
135734
135808

—18
—136
74

—0.2
—1.2
0.7

0.7
0.5
0.6

132428
132595
132654

61
167
59

0.6
1.5
0.5

1.3
1.3
0.9

152.2
151.7
152.0

0.7
—0.3
0.2

8.2
—3.9
2.4

1.0
0.5
0.4

Apr
May
Jun

135424
135235
135003

—384
—189
—232

—3.3
—1.7
—2.0

—0.1
0.2
—0.2

132489
132530
132431

—165
41
—99

—1.5
0.4
—0.9

0.6
0.5
0.4

151.5
151.5
151.2

—0.3
0.0
—0.2

—3.9
0.0
—2.4

—0.2
0.3
—0.2

Jul
Aug
Sep

135106
134408
135004

103
—698
596

0.9
—6.0
5.5

0.2
—0.5
—0.1

132449
132395
132230

18
—54
—165

0.2
—0.5
—1.5

0.4
0.4
0.1

150.8
150.1
149.9

—0.3
—0.5
—0.1

—3.1
—5.4
—1.6

—0.5
—0.8
—1.2

Oct
Nov
Dec

134615
134253
134055

—389
—362
—198

—3.4
—3.2
—1.8

—0.6
—1.0
—1.3

131782
131427
131321

—448
—355
—106

—4.0
—3.2
—1.0

—0.3
—0.6
—0.8

148.9
148.7
148.8

—0.7
—0.1
0.1

—7.7
—1.6
0.8

—1.9
—2.0
—1.6

2002 Jan
Feb
Mar

133468
134319
133894

—587
851
—425

—5.1
7.9
—3.7

—1.8
—1.0
—1.4

131212
131208
131187

—109
—4
—21

—1.0
—0.0
—0.2

—0.9
—1.0
—1.1

148.4
148.6
148.8

—0.3
0.1
0.1

—3.2
1.6
1.6

—2.5
—2.0
—2.1

Apr

133976

82

0.7

—1.1

131230

43

0.4

—1.0

148.5

—0.2

—2.4

—2.0

May

Nov

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NationalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Retail and Food SeMces Sales
Unempl~
Rate
1997
1998
1999

Indusfrial Production

Percent change
Billions
of dollars

Monthly! Annual
quarterly rate

Percent chance
Year
ago

Index

5.0
5.0
8.4
6.7
3.8

127.944
134.504
139.447
145.732
140.392

Monthly! Annual
quarterly rate

Year
ago

Treasury
Yields
3—mo

10—yr

6.9
5.1
3.7
4.5
—3.7

5.06
4.78
4.64
5.82
3.39

6.35
5.26
5.64
6.03
5.02

4.9
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.8

2769.532
2907.356
3151.004
3360.754
3487.296

4.0
4.0
4.1
4.0

835.780
834.314
843.734
846.926

2.8
—0.2
1.1
0.4

11.7
—0.7
4.6
1.5

9.5
7.1
6.1
4.2

144.033
146.480
146.686
145.730

1.4
1.7
0.1
—0.7

5.8
7.0
0.6
—2.6

4.9
5.8
4.8
2.6

5.52
5.71
6.02
6.02

6.48
6.18
5.89
5.57

3
4

4.2
4.5
4.8
5.6

859.295
868.565
866.398
893.038

1.5
1.1
—0.2
3.1

6.0
4.4
—1.0
12.9

2.8
4.1
2.7
5.4

143.457
141.309
139.606
137.197

—1.6
—1.5
—1.2
—1.7

—6.1
—5.9
—4.7
—6.7

—0.4
—3.5
—4.8
—5.9

4.82
3.66
3.17

5.05
5.27
4.98

1.91

4.77

1

5.6

887.343

—0.6

—2.5

3.3

138.038

0.6

2.5

—3.8

1.72

5.08

2000 Apr
May
Jun

3.9
4.1
4.0

277.862
277.533
278.919

—1.4
—0.1
0.5

—15.4
—1.4
6.2

7.9
6.6
6.8

145.636
146.617
147.188

0.5
0.7
0.4

6.4
8.4
4.8

5.6
5.8
6.1

5.66
5.79
5.69

5.99
6.44
6.10

Jul
Aug
Sep

4.1
4.1
4.0

280.178
279.891
283.665

0.5
—0.1
1.3

5.6
—1.2
17.4

6.4
5.4
6.4

146.532
146.700
146.826

—0.4
0.1
0.1

—5.2
1.4
1.0

5.0
4.6
4.7

5.96
6.09
6.00

6.05
5.83
5.80

Oct
Nov
Dec

3.9
4.0
4.0

282.524
281.316
283.086

—0.4
—0.4
0.6

—4.7
—5.0
7.8

5.7
4.0
2.8

146.266
145.789
145.135

—0.4
—0.3
—0.4

—4.5
—3.8
—5.3

3.5
2.7
1.6

6.11
6.17
5.77

5.74
5.72
5.24

2001 Jan
Feb
Mar

4.2
4.2

286.878
287.182

1.3
0.1

17.3
1.3

4.4
2.9

143.934
143.509

—0.8
—0.3

—9.5
—3.5

0.5
—0.4

4.3

285.235

—0.7

—7.8

1.2

142.928

—0.4

—4.8

—1.3

5.15
4.88
4.42

5.16
5.10
4.89

Apr
May
Jun

4.5
4.4
4.6

288.964
290.022
289.579

1.3
0.4
—0.2

16.9
4.5
—1.8

4.0
4.5
3.8

142.007
141.595
140.326

—0.6 —7.5
—0.3
—3.4
—0.9 —10.2

—2.5
—3.4
—4.7

3.87
3.62
3.49

5.14
5.39
5.28

Jul
Aug
Sep

4.6
4.9

290.319
291.073

0.3
0.3

3.1
3.2

3.6
4.0

140.402
139.954

0.1
—0.3

0.7
—3.8

—4.2
—4.6

5.0

285.006

—2.1

—22.3

0.5

138.461

—1.1

—12.1

—5.7

3.51
3.36
2.64

5.24
4.97
4.73

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.4
5.6
5.8

302.770
295.036
295.232

6.2
—2.6
0.1

106.6
—26.7
0.8

7.2
4.9
4.3

137.670
137.240
136.682

—0.6
—0.3
—0.4

—6.6
—3.7
—4.8

—5.9
—5.9
—5.8

2.16
1.87
1.69

4.57
4.65
5.09

2002 Jan
Feb
Mar

5.6
5.5
5.7

294.852
296.120
296.371

—0.1
0.4
0.1

—1.5
5.3
1.0

2.8
3.1
3.9

137.412

0.5

6.6

—4.5

137.858
138.845

0.3
0.7

4.0
8.9

—3.9
—2.9

1.65
1.73
1.79

5.04
4.91
5.28

Apr

6.0

1.72

5.21

2000
2001

2000

1
2
3
4

2001

2002

1
2

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Nat ionalEconomicTrends

05/03/02

Percent change
Index
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001

2000

1
2

Monthly! Annual
quarterly rate

160.5
163.0
166.6
172.2
177.1

Producer Price Index
Finished Goods

Consumer Price Index
less Food andEnergy

Consumer Price Index
Year
ago

Percent c~~nge~,
Year
to date

Index

Monthly! Annual
quarterly rate

169.5
173.4
177.0
181.3
186.1

2.3
1.5
2.2
3.4
2.8

Year
ago

Year
to date

2.4
2.3
2.1
2.4
2.7

Percent change
Index

Monthly! Annual
quarterly rate

131.8

Year
ago
0.4
—0.9
1.8
3.7
2.0

130.7
133.0
138.0
140.7

3
4

170.1
171.5
173.0
174.2

1.0
0.8
0.9
0.7

3.9
3.3
3.5
3.0

3.2
3.3
3.5
3.4

3.9
3.6
3.6
3.4

179.5
180.7
181.9
183.0

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6

2.4
2.6
2.6
2.5

2.2
2.4
2.6
2.5

2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5

136.4
137.4
138.3
139.9

1.1
0.7
0.7
1.2

4.4
3.0
2.7
4.7

3.7
3.9
3.6
3.7

1
2
3
4

175.9
177.3
177.6
177.5

1.0
0.8
0.2

3.9
3.1
0.8

3.4
3.4
2.7

3.9
3.5
2.6
1.9

2.7
2.6
2.7
2.7

3.0
2.7
2.7
2.7

141.8
142.1
140.6
138.4

4.0
3.4
1.6

1.9

3.0
2.4
2.7
2.7

5.5
0.8
—4.2

—0.3

0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7

1.4
0.2
—1.1

—0.1

184.4
185.5
186.7
187.9

—1.6

—6.1

—1.1

1

178.1

0.3

1.4

1.2

1.4

189.0

0.6

2.3

2.5

2.3

138.5

0.1

0.3

—2.4

2000 Mar

171.0

0.6

7.3

3.7

5.1

180.0

0.3

4.1

2.4

2.7

137.5

0.7

9.2

4.5

Apr
May
Jun

171.0
171.2
172.2

0.0
0.1
0.6

0.0
1.4
7.2

3.1
3.1
3.7

3.8
3.3
3.9

180.4
180.7
181.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.7
2.0
2.0

2.3
2.4
2.5

2.7
2.6
2.5

136.9
137.1
138.1

—0.4
0.1
0.7

—5.1
1.8
9.1

3.6
3.6
4.4

Jul
Aug
Sep

172.6
172.7
173.6

0.2
0.1
0.5

2.8
0.7
6.4

3.6
3.4
3.5

3.8
3.4
3.7

181.4
181.9
182.3

0.2
0.3
0.2

2.7
3.4
2.7

2.5
2.7
2.5

2.5
2.6
2.6

138.1
137.9
138.9

0.0
—0.1
0.7

0.0
—1.7
9.1

4.1
3.3
3.3

Oct
Nov
Dec

173.9
174.2
174.6

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.1
2.1
2.8

3.5
3.4
3.4

3.6
3.4
3.4

182.6
183.1
183.3

0.2
0.3
0.1

2.0
3.3
1.3

2.5
2.6
2.5

2.6
2.6
2.5

139.6
139.9
140.2

0.5
0.2
0.2

6.2
2.6
2.6

3.7
3.8
3.6

2001 Jan
Feb
Mar

175.6
176.0

0.6
0.2

7.1
2.8

3.7
3.5

7.1
4.9

183.9
184.4

0.3
0.3

4.0
3.3

2.6
2.8

4.0
3.7

176.1

0.1

0.7

3.0

3.5

184.8

0.2

2.6

2.7

3.3

141.7
142.0
141.7

1.1
0.2
—0.2

13.6
2.6
—2.5

4.9
4.0
3.1

Apr
May
Jun

176.6
177.4
177.8

0.3
0.5
0.2

3.5
5.6
2.7

3.3
3.6
3.3

3.5
3.9
3.7

185.1
185.4
185.9

0.2
0.2
0.3

2.0
2.0
3.3

2.6
2.6
2.7

3.0
2.8
2.9

142.1
142.4
141.7

0.3
0.2
—0.5

3.4
2.6
—5.7

3.8
3.9
2.6

Jul
Aug
Sep

177.3
177.4
178.1

—0.3
0.1
0.4

—3.3
0.7
4.8

2.7
2.7
2.6

2.7
2.4
2.7

186.3
186.7
187.1

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.7
2.6
2.6

2.8
2.8
2.8

140.0
140.6
141.1

—1.2 —13.5
0.4
5.3
0.4
4.4

1.4
2.0
1.6

Oct
Nov
Dec

177.6
177.5
177.3

—0.3
—0.1
—0.1

—3.3
—0.7
—1.3

2.1
1.9
1.5

2.1
1.8
1.5

187.4
188.1
188.3

0.2
0.4
0.1

1.9
4.6
1.3

2.6
2.7
2.7

2.7
2.9
2.7

139.2
138.3
137.6

—1.3 —15.0
—0.6 —7.5
—0.5
—5.9

—0.3
—1.1
—1.9

2002 Jan

177.6
178.0
178.6

0.2
0.2
0.3

2.0
2.7
4.1

1.1
1.1

2.0
2.4
3.0

188.6
189.1
189.3

0.2
0.3
0.1

1.9
3.2
1.3

2.6
2.5
2.4

1.9
2.6
2.1

137.8
138.1
139.5

2001

2002

Feb
Mar

1.4

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

0.1
0.2
1.0

1.8
2.6
12.9

—2.8
—2.7
—1.6

Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in private inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth
rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the
following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete
information. Real GDP is measured in 1996 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) index is a weighted average of diffusion
indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and
employment. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of
production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio
uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: For information on how to calculate the contribution of a
component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue
of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for
imports.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity;
three-month yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the
yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant
maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb.
18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry
Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot
prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually
taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer price index is
for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the
index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private
nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of
jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm
business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The available labor supply is the sum of the
unemployed and those persons not in the labor force but who want to
work now. Because the household survey was changed in January
1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable.
Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in
a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their
current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving. The comprehensive revision introduced the equipment & software component of business investment.
Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The
unified federal budget surplus/deficit differs from NIPA basis in
four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing
assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include
consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do

the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories;
and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and
receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal
fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent
of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the
public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes
holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal
grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and
local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of
GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54
percent. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.
NOTE: Measures of retail sales (pp. 12-13), manufacturers’ orders,
shipments and inventories (p. 15), and the total business inventory-tosales ratio (p. 5) are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Before January 1992, data are on the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. For more information, see
http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

Sources
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity
United States Department of Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt
The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)