Full text of National Economic Trends : May 1993

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May 1993

N ational
Economic
Trends
Why High-Tech Is at the
Center of the Industrial
Policy Debate
Why are high-technology industries at the center of a
controversy over whether the United States should have
an explicit industrial policy like those found in South
Korea and France?
High-technology industries, such as electronics and
computers, aerospace, pharmaceutical products, and
scientific instruments, account for an increasingly signif­
icant portion of total manufacturing in the United States.
According to the National Science Foundation, hightechnology output increased in the 1980s as a percent
of both total manufacturing output (from 20 percent to
an estimated 30 percent) and gross domestic product
(from 4.3 percent to 5.4 percent). Using a broader
classification of high technology (because of data
restrictions), employment in high-technology industries
grew 12 percent over the period 1972 to 1989, compared
with 3 percent growth in manufacturing employment
over the same period. Average wages are also higher
in high-technology industries. In 1972, wages in hightechnology industries were 78 percent higher than for
the overall private nonfarm sector; by 1989, they were
more than twice as high. The United States has also
faced increasing international competition in these
industries, with the U.S. share of the global market for
high-technology products declining from about 40 per­
cent in 1980 to an estimated 36 percent in 1990.
High-technology industries by definition conduct
most U.S. research and development (R&D), seeking
more efficient ways to produce existing products or

trying to invent new or improved products. The underly­
ing reason for targeting these industries is the view that
high-technology industries are more beneficial because
they provide higher wages and better employment op­
portunities than other industries. In addition, evidence
indicates that these industries generate positive externali­
ties that provide a benefit to society that is greater than
the benefit that the firm and its customers accrue. For
example, the social benefits of Henry Ford’s moving as­
sembly line for automobile production exceeded the cost
savings for Ford Motor Company because it was adopted
with little cost by many other companies as well. By
increasing productivity in various industries, this innova­
tion had a positive effect on long-run economic growth.
According to economic theory, in the presence of
externalities, private investment in R&D tends to be too
low from a social point of view. To maximize the social
benefit from innovation, the divergence between the
social and private costs should be eliminated. Two ways
to accomplish this are by granting and enforcing proper­
ty rights and by direct government intervention. The
United States provides property rights for innovations in
the form of patents and copyrights and is currently at­
tempting to extend these to cover new types of innova­
tion, such as computer chips and biotechnology. Direct
government intervention includes funding education and
academic R&D and providing tax incentives for R&D,
as well as providing subsidies for high-technology in­
dustries (that is, R&D funds for a private corporation)
or engaging in high-risk R&D itself, as the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration does.
Because no consensus exists as to whether these
types of policies are cost-effective, the debate on indus­
trial policy continues.
—Alison Butler

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442. St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal

computer
and a modem at 314-621-1824.



Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
8-91

Initial Month
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

1982-84*100
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
137.0

9-91

3.6

10-91

3.1

2.7

11-91

3.6

3.6

4.5

12-91

3.3

3.3

3.5

2.6

1-92

3.4

3.3

3.5

3.1

3.5

2-92

3.2

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.1

2.6

3-92

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

4.4

137.3
137.8
138.1
138.5
138.8
139.3

4-92

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.5

5-92

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.6

1.7

6-92

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.6

2.2

2.6

7-92

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

3.0

8-92

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6

9-92

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.7

10-92

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

5.2

11-92

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.9

2.6

12-92

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.1

1.7

1-93

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.4

3.9

6.1

2-93

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.6

4.0

5.2

4.3

3-93

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.2

3.4

4.0

3.0

1.7

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




139.7
139.9
140.2
3.5

140.6
140.9
141.1
141.7
142.0
142.2
142.9
143.4
143.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 9, 1993

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

<i-92 5-92

6-92

1982-84=100
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
136.1

9-91

0.0

10-91

0.0

0.0

11-91

2.1

3.1

6.3

12-91

2.4

3.3

4.9

3.6

1-92

1.8

2.2

3.0

1.3

-0.9

2-92

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.1

1.3

3.6

3-92

2.4

2.8

3.4

2.7

2.4

4.0

4.5

4-92

2.2

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.0

2.9

2.6

0.9

5-92

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.0

0.5

0.9

0.0

-2.2

-5.1

6-92

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.2

-1.2

-2.2

7-92

1.1

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.0

-1.1

-1.7

0.0

-0.9

8-92

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.5

0.4

2.3

3.1

7.2

9-92

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.0

2.6

3.2

5.4

3.5

10-92

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.1

2.4

3.5

1.7

0.0

11-92

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.5

0.4

0.9

12-92

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.2

2.1

2.3

3.0

2.0

1.4

2.2

3.5

1-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.4

2.2

2.9

4.0

4.4

2-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.1

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.7

3-93

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.7

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91

136.1
136.8
137.2
137.1
137.5
138.0
138.1
137.5
137.6

0.9

137.5
138.3
138.7
138.7
138.8
139.2
139.7
139.9
140.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 9, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

1982-84=100
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
101.1

9-91

2.4

10-91

1.8

1.2

11-91

2.4

2.4

3.6

12-91

3.3

3.6

4.8

1-92

0.5

0.0

-0.4

101.2
101.5
102.0

6.1
-2.3 -10.1

101.1

2-92

-0.4

-0.9

-1.5

-3.1

-7.4

-4.6

3-92

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.5

-3.9

-0.6

3.6

100.7

4-92

0.6

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-2.0

0.8

3.6

3.6

5-92

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.6

-0.5

2.1

4.4

4.8

101.0
101.3
101.8

6.1

6-92

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.2

4.8

7.3

8.6

11.1

16.4

7-92

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

5.4

7.5

8.5

10.2

12.4

8.5

8-92

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.1

3.9

5.4

5.8

6.3

6.4

1.8

-4.5

9-92

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.8

3.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

1.2

-2.3

0.0

10-92

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.2

3.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.3

0.4

2.9

6.0

11-92

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2

3.6

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

4.1

2.3

12-92

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

1.9

3.0

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

1.6

0.2

1.5

1.9

0.0

-2.3

1-93

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

3.3

4.0

4.1

4.1

3.9

2.2

1.2

2.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

5.9

2-93

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

2.6

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

1.3

0.3

1.2

1.4

0.3

-0.4

0.6

-4.5

3-93

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.1

3.0

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.4

2.1

1.3

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.7

3.1

1.7

8.4

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




103.1
103.8
103.4
103.4
103.9
104.1
103.9
104.4
104.0
104.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 9, 1993

3

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

9-91

2.0

10-91

2.5

3.0

11-91

2.3

2.5

2.0

12-91

1.0

0.7

-0.5

-2.9

1-92

0.8

0.5

-0.3

-1.5

0.0

2-92

1.2

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

1982 « 100
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
121.7
122.0
122.2
121.9
121.9
122.2

3-92

1.4

1.3

1.0

0.7

2.0

3.0

3.0

4-92

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.2

2.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

5-92

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.6

2.6

3.2

3.3

3.5

4.0

6-92

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

2.6

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.0

7-92

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

0.0

8-92

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.0

9-92

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.0

3.0

10-92

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.2

1.6

2.0

1.0

11-92

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.6

-0.5

-1.9

12-92

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

-0.3

-1.0

0.0

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

2-93

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.2

2.3

3.4

4.9

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.9

3.9

4.9

4.9

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




122.5
122.8
123.2
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.9
124.0
123.8
123.8
124.0
124.5
125.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 8, 1993

4

Civilian Em ploym ent and U nem ploym ent Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of P erso n s

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rate s of ch an ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

9-91

6.2

10-91

2.4

-1.3

1-92

2-92

3-92

Initial Month
Persons
5-92 6-92

4-92

Thousands of
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
117,108

116,980

11-91

1.4

-0.9

-0.5

12-91

0.6

-1.2

-1.2

-1.8

1-92

1.1

-0.2

0.2

0.5

3.0

2-92

0.8

-0.3

0.0

0.1

1.1

-0.8

3-92

1.1

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.8

1.2

3.1

116,932
116,752
117,036
116,962
117,264

4-92

1.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2.0

1.7

2.9

2.6

5-92

1.2

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.4

2.1

1.6

0.6

6-92

1.0

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.3

1.0

1.4

0.8

0.0

-0.7

7-92

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.2

8-92

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.4

0.6

9-92

1.0

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.6

10-92

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.4

11-92

1.1

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

3.9

12-92

1.1

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

2.0

3.2

2.5

1-93

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.0

-2.4

2-93

1.1

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.5

2.0

1.3

0.7

3.9

3-93

1.1

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.3

0.9

2.5

1.2

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




117,518
117,580
117,510
117,722
117,780
117,724
117,687
118,064
118,311
118,071
118,451
118,565

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 2, 1993

5

Payroll Em ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of P ersons

1987

1988

1989

1990

Millions of Persons

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

9-91

0.3

10-91

0.1

-0.1

11-91

-0,5

-0.9

-1.6

12-91

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

0.2

1-92

-0.4

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

-0.6

1-92

2-92

3-92

Initial Month
Persons
5-92 6-92

4-92

Thousands of
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
108,293
108,285
108,139
108,154

108,100

2-92

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.1

0.5

3-92

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

4-92

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

5-92

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.3

6-92

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.3

-0.8

7-92

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.5

1.9

8-92

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.0

0.3

-1.2

9-92

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.0

0.3

-0.5

0.1

108,142
108,200
108,377
108,496
108,423
108,594
108,485
108,497

10-92

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.8

11-92

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.8

0.8

12-92

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1-93

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

2-93

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.0

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.7

4.1

3-93

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.9

-0.2

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




108,571
108,646
108,752
108,865
109,232
109,210

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 2, 1993

6

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

9-91

0.9

10-91

0.7

0.6

11-91

0.2

-0.1

-0.8

12-91

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.6

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

84,538
84,581
84,526
84,570

1-92

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

2-92

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.6

3-92

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.7

4-92

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.6

2.6

5-92

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.4

6-92

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.1

7-92

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.3

2.6

8-92

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.8

1.2

-0.2

9-92

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.5

10-92

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.3

1.4

11-92

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.1

1.2

0.9

12-92

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.7

1-93

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.5

2-93

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.7

3.8

3-93

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.2

0.6

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91

Thousands of
Persons

84,573
84,617
84,668
84,847
84,948
84,953
85,135
85,123
1.1

85,201
85,301
85,366
85,489
85,598
85,864
85,907

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 2, 1993

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

Thousands of
Persons
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

9-91

-1.8

10-91

-2.2

-2.5

11-91

-3.0

-3.5

-4.5

12-91

-2.6

-2.8

-3.0

-1.5

1-92

-2.6

-2.9

-3.0

-2.2

-2.9

2-92

-2.2

-2.3

-2.2

-1.5

-1.5

-0.1

3-92

-1.9

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

-0.9

0.1

0.4

4-92

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

0.1

-0.1

5-92

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.9

6-92

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.0

-1.5

-3.9

7-92

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.7

-0.9

-1.2

-2.2

-0.6

8-92

-1.8

-1.8

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-2.1

-3.1

-2.7

-4.9

9-92

-1.9

-1.9

-1.9

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.7

-2.0

-2.4

-3.2

-2.9

-4.1

-3.3

10-92

-1.9

-1.9

-1.8

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-2.2

-2.8

-2.5

-3.2

-2.3

-1.3

11-92

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-1.6

-1.8

-2.3

-1.9

-2.3

-1.4

-0.4

0.5

12-92

-1.7

-1.7

-1.6

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.7

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.3

-0.6

-0.2

-0.9

1-93

-1.6

-1.5

-1.5

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.8

-1.5

-1.6

-1.0

-0.4

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

2-93

-1.2

-1.2

-1.1

-0.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-1.0

-0.7

-0.7

0.1

0.7

1.3

1.5

2.7

5.3

3-93

-1.3

-1.3

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.9

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-1.0

-0.4

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.9

-3.3

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

23,755
23,704




23,613
23,584
23,527
23,525
23,532
23,530
23,548
23,470
23,459
23,362
23,296
23,270
23,280
23,263
23,267
23,368
23,303

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April Z, 1993

7

Change in th e E m ploym ent Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total com pensation is the sum of benefits and w ages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

June 1989 = 100
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
96.6

3-88

3.8

4-88

4.4

5.1

1-89

4.3

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.4

4.6

4.3

4.5

3-89

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.3

4-89

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.4

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

1-92

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.8

4.0

2-92

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.9

3-92

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

97.8
98.8
99.9
101.2
102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.9
3.7

111.9
113.0
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.9

Data are for the last month of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 27, 1993

8

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

1987-100

1987

1988

1989

1990

1987=100

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tage s are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

9-91

4.5

10-91

2.2

0.0

11-91

0.4

-1.6

-3.3

12-91

-1.7

-3.6

-5.4

-7.5

1-92

-3.1

-4.9

-6.5

-8.0

-8.6

2-92

-1.5

-2.6

-3.3

-3.3

-1.1

7.0

3-92

-0.6

-1.5

-1.8

-1.4

0.7

5.8

4.6

4-92

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

0.0

2.0

5.7

5.1

5.7

5-92

1.1

0.7

0.8

1.5

3.4

6.6

6.5

7.5

4-92

5-92

6-92

1987 = 100
7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
108.4
108.4
108.1
107.4
106.6
107.2
107.6
108.1

9.3

108.9

6-92

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.6

2.1

4.3

3.7

3.4

2.2

-4.3

7-92

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.8

3.2

5.3

5.0

5.1

4.9

2.8

10.4

8-92

1.0

0.7

0.8

1.2

2.4

4.1

3.6

3.4

2.8

0.7

3.4

-3.2

108.5
109.4
109.1

9-92

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.9

1.9

3.3

2.7

2.4

1.8

0.0

1.5

-2.7

-2.2

10-92

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.6

2.6

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.0

1.8

3.4

1.1

3.3

9.2

11-92

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.1

3.1

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.7

2.8

4.3

2.8

4.9

8.6

7.9

12-92

2.1

1.9

2.1

2.5

3.4

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.1

3.3

4.7

3.5

5.3

7.9

7.3

6.7

1-93

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.6

3.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.1

3.5

4.6

3.7

5.1

7.0

6.3

5.6

4.4

2-93

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.9

3.7

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.3

3.8

4.9

4.1

5.4

7.0

6.4

5.9

5.5

6.7

3-93

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.7

3.4

4.3

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.4

4.3

3.6

4.6

5.8

5.1

4.4

3.7

3.3

0.0

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




108.9
109.7
110.4
111.0
111.4
112.0
112.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 16, 1993

9

Personal Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

4 .8

4 .8

4 .4

4 .4

.1%
1.6%

4 .0

, —2.6%>I
1W W '

1.4%

3.6%

4 .0

Total Peri onal Income
\
1

3 .6

I ' " “ " '
1.6%

' v - K

3 .2

2.8

~""T_ 1.. —

'

1987

1 '

AvsS

....!.... ;...’

1988

1
i

-

I

3 .6

I

.3%

1

Disposablee Personal lnc<)me

0.3%

]

1989

1990

3 .2

----------- !

1991

"T I ..1 ' '

,

1992

2.8

1993

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates o f chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

9-91

-0.5

10-91

2.4

5.3

11-91

0.1

0.4

-4.3

12-91

3.4

4.8

4.5

14.2

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Ratas
2-93

1-93

3,511.3
3,526.4
3,513.4
3,552.5

1-92

2.5

3.3

2.6

6.3

-1.1

2-92

3.1

3.8

3.4

6.1

2.3

5.8

3,549.3
3,565.9

3-92

3.4

4.1

3.8

6.0

3.4

5.6

5.5

4-92

2.6

3.0

2.7

4.1

1.8

2.7

1.3

3,581.9
-2.8

3,573.3

5-92

2.5

2.9

2.6

3.7

1.8

2.5

1.4

-0.6

1.8

6-92

2.2

2.5

2.1

3.1

1.3

1.8

0.9

-0.6

0.5

-0.8

7-92

1.9

2.2

1.8

2.6

1.1

1.4

0.6

-0.6

0.1

-0.7

-0.6

8-92

2.1

2.3

2.0

2.7

1.4

1.8

1.1

0.2

1.0

0.8

1.6

3.8

9-92

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.3

1.1

1.4

0.8

0.0

0.6

0.3

0.6

1.2

-1.3

10-92

2.5

2.7

2.5

3.1

2.1

2.4

2.0

1.5

2.3

2.3

3.2

4.4

4.8

11-92

2.1

2.3

2.0

2.6

1.6

1.9

1.4

0.9

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.1

3.8

-3.1

12-92

2.6

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.4

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.7

2.8

3.4

4.3

4.4

6.3

4.0

1-93

2.6

2.7

2.6

3.1

2.3

2.6

2.3

2.0

2.5

2.6

3.1

3.7

3.7

5.0

3.0

6.2

1.1

2-93

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.6

2.0

2.1

2.4

2.9

2.7

3.5

1.7

3.4

-0.5

-2.1

3-93

2.5

2.7

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.9

3.3

3.3

4.0

2.7

4.2

1.8

2.1

6.5

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

8-91




3,578.6
3,576.1
3,574.4
3,585.5
3,581.7
11.2

3,613.4
3,604.0
11.6

3,637.1
3,640.5
3,634.1
3,653.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 30, 1993

10

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
P ercen tage s are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month

Terainal
Month
8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93
113,903

9-91

-2.7

10-91

-3.1

-3.5

11-91

-3.0

-3.1

-2.7

12-91

-2.0

-1.8

-0.9

1.0

1-92

1.3

2.3

4.3

8.0

15.6

2-92

3.3

4.6

6.7

10.0

14.8

3-92

1.0

1.6

2.6

4.0

5.1

4-92

0.7

1.1

1.9

2.9

3.4

-0.4

-6.9

-1.6

5-92

1.3

1.8

2.6

3.5

4.0

1.3

-2.6

2.5

6.8

6-92

0.8

1.2

1.8

2.5

2.7

0.3

-2.8

0.4

1.4

-3.6

7-92

1.2

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.1

1.2

-1.2

1.7

2.8

0.8

113,570
113,308
113,400
114,776
116,040

14.0

114,813

0.2 -12.0

114,658
115,284
114,931
115,445

5.5

8-92

1.5

1.9

2.4

3.0

3.3

1.6

-0.3

2.2

3.1

2.0

4.9

4.2

9-92

1.8

2.2

2.7

3.3

3.5

2.1

0.5

2.7

3.6

2.9

5.1

5.0

5.7

10-92

3.1

3.5

4.1

4.8

5.2

4.1

2.9

5.2

6.4

6.4

9.0

10.2

13.3

21.5

11-92

2.6

2.9

3.4

4.0

4.3

3.2

2.0

3.9

4.8

4.4

6.1

6.3

7.0

7.6

-4.7

12-92

3.1

3.5

4.1

4.6

4.9

4.0

3.0

4.8

5.7

5.5

7.1

7.5

8.3

9.2

3.5

12.3

1-93

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.9

4.1

3.2

2.2

3.8

4.4

4.1

5.3

5.2

5.4

5.4

0.5

3.2

-5.2

2-93

2.0

2.3

2.7

3.0

3.2

2.3

1.4

2.7

3.1

2.7

3.5

3.2

3.1

2.6

-1.7

-0.7

-6.6

-7.9

117,616

3-93

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.9

2.0

1.1

0.2

1.3

1.5

1.0

1.5

1.1

0.6

-0.2

-4.1

-3.9

-8.8 -10.5 -13.0

116,256

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

8-91

115,844
116,379
118,280
117,811
118,956

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

118,427

1-93

2-93

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100J.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 13, 1993

11

Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

i ------ 1------ 1------------ 1------ 1------ 1------------ 1------ 1------ r
1987

1988

1989

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of S t. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month
7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93
824,609

8-91

0.8

9-91

2.9

4.9

10-91

2.9

4.0

3.1

11-91

2.3

2.8

1.8

0.5

12-91

2.7

3.2

2.6

2.3

4.2

1-92

1.4

1.5

0.6

-0.2

-0.6

-5.1

2-92

1.3

1.4

0.7

0.1

0.0

-2.1

1.0

3-92

1.6

1.7

1.2

0.8

0.9

-0.2

2.3

3.6

4-92

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

2.9

3.8

4.0

5-92

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.1

1.1

0.5

2.0

2.3

1.7

-0.5

6-92

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.6

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.1

6.8

7-92

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.0

3.3

3.7

3.8

3.7

5.9

4.9

8-92

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.2

3.3

3.7

3.7

3.6

5.0

4.1

3.2

9-92

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.6

3.4

2.2

0.9

-1.4

10-92

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.4

3.0

2.0

1.1

0.0

1.4

.11-92

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.8

2.0

1.2

0.6

1.6

1.8

12-92

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.2

2.1

2.5

3.2

1-93

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.9

2.3

1.9

1.6

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

2-93

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.0

2.6

2.2

2.1

2.8

3.1

3.6

3.8

4.4

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

827,925
830,005
830,373
833,213
829,609
830,330
832,772
835,471
835,106
839,721
843,101
845,350
844,388
845,341
846,585
848,805
851,018
854,045

Revised fro* 1987, reflecting revisions of retail and wholesale trade.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 14, 1993

12

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

P ercen tage s are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3-88

2.5

4-88

3.2

3.9

1-89

3.2

3.5

3.2

2-89

2.9

3.0

2.5

1.8

3-89

2.3

2.2

1.7

0.9

0.0

4-89

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.2

2.8

2-90

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.9

1.0

3-90

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.9

0.7

-0.3

-1.6

4-90

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-1.6

-2.8

1-91

0.7

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-1.9

-2.9

-3.5

-3.0

2-91

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-1.2

-1.7

-1.8

-0.7

1.7

3-91

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-0.1

1.5

1.2

4-91

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.9

-0.7

0.1

1.2

0.9

0.6

1-92

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.9

2-92

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.8

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.2

1.5

3-92

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.4

4-92

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.6

3.1

3.2

4.1

4.7

1-93

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

1.6

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.2

1.8

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

4,734.5
4,779.7
4,817.6
4,839.0
4,839.0
4,856.7
4,890.8
4,902.7
4,882.6
-3.9

4,833.8
4,796.7
4,817.1
4,831.8
4,838.5
4,873.7
4,892.4
4,933.7
4,990.8
5,013.1

First quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

13

Im plicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1987 * 100
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
104.5

3-88

5.1

4-88

4.5

3.9

1-89

4.8

4.6

5.4

2-89

4.7

4.6

5.0

4.6

3-89

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

1-90

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.4

2-90

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.8

105.5
106.9
108.1
109.1
3.7

110.1
111.3
112.6

3-90

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.7

4-90

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.3

3.9

1-91

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

5.3

2-91

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.4

113.9
115.0
116.5
117.5

3.5

3-91

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.7

2.9

2.4

4-91

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.4

118.2

1-92

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.1

2-92

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3-92

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.0

4-92

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.3

1-93

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.8

3.3

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

118.9
119.8
120.6
121.2
121.9
122.9

First quarter data are advance estivates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
4,710.9

3-88

1.9

4-88

3.0

4.1

1-89

2.5

2.8

4,758.7
1.5

4,776.3

2-89

2.4

2.6

1.8

2.2

3-89

2.3

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

4,802.0

4-89

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

2.4

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

4.3

2-90

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.6

-1.1

3-90

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

-0.5

0.1

4-90

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

1-91

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-1.3

-1.3

-2.0

-3.2

2-91

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

1.3

3-91

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

0.4

-0.5

4-91

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

0.3

-0.3

0.0

1-92

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.4

1.3

1.4

2.3

4.7

2-92

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.2

-0.1

3-92

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

1.3

1.3

1.8

2.4

1.3

2.8

4-92

1.4

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.9

2.0

2.5

3.1

2.6

4.0

5.2

1-93

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.4

1.9

2.5

2.4

-0.3

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

4,823.0
4,831.8
4,883.3
4,870.0
4,871.4
4,860.6
4,821.8
4,837.4
4,831.2
4,830.9
4,886.3
4,884.6
4,918.7
4,981.0
4,977.4

Prepared by Federal Reserva Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

___
3,170.6

3-88

2.9

4-88

3.5

4.1

1-89

2.4

2.1

0.1

2-89

2.0

1.8

0.6

1.1

3-89

2.2

2.0

1.4

2.0

2.9

4-89

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

2.0

1.9

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.5

2.2

2-90

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.1

0.1

3-90

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.7

4-90

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-3.1

1-91

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.1

-1.5

-3.1

-3.0

2-91

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-1.4

-0.5

2.0

3-91

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

1.7

1.5

4-91

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.6

0.0

1.1

0.6

-0.3

1-92

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

1.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

5.1

2-92

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.4

-0.1

3-92

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.7

1.2

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.8

3.7

4-92

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.7

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.4

2.9

4.4

5.1

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.4

3.0

2.5

3.3

3.1

1.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2
3,235.3
3,242.0
3,259.5
3,260.1
3,273.9
3,248.0
3,223.5
3,239.3
3,251.2
3,249.0
3,289.3
3,288.5
3,318.4
3,359.9
3,369.9

First quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

3-88

2.7

4-88

3.0

3.3

1-89

0.1

-1.2

-5.4

2-89

-3.0

-4.8

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

-3.9

-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-7.6

4-89

-4.2

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-2.9

-3.9

-5.2

-5.2

-2.9

-0.5

2-90

-4.7

-5.7

-7.1

-7.4

-6.3

-5.9

3-90

-6.9

-8.0

-9.5 -10.2

4-90

-8.6

-9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
223.5
225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0

5.3

210.7

-5.9 -15.9

201.8

-9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9

189.1
177.5

1-91

-10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9

2-91

-9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6

3-91

-7.5

-8.3

-9.2

-9.6

-9.4

-9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8

4-91

-6.2

-6.9

-7.7

-7.9

-7.5

-7.5

-7.7

-9.4

1-92

-4.7

-5.2

-5.8

-5.8

-5.3

-5.0

-4.9

2-92

-3.7

-4.1

-4.6

-4.5

-3.9

-3.6

3-92

-3.4

-3.8

-4.3

-4.2

-3.6

-3.2

4-92

-2.0

-2.3

-2.7

-2.5

-1.8

-1.3

1-93

-1.9

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-1.6

-1.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

164.1
7.0

166.9

-8.7

-3.7

10.6

14.4

-8.3

-5.0

-0.1

10.9

12.9

11.3

-6.1

-4.7

-1.2

3.6

13.1

15.2

15.6

20.1

-3.3

-4.2

-2.7

0.6

5.1

13.0

14.6

14.6

16.3

12.6

-3.0

-3.8

-2.3

0.6

4.4

10.8

11.5

10.8

10.7

6.2

0.2

-0.9

-1.5

0.1

3.0

6.8

12.7

13.7

13.5

14.1

12.2

11.9

25.1

-0.8

-1.3

0.1

2.8

6.0

11.1

11.7

11.2

11.2

9.1

7.9

11.9

0.2

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

172.6
177.3
185.6
191.2
191.3
202.3
202.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
535.2

3-88

2.9

4-88

2.8

2.7

1-89

2.0

1.6

538.8
539.5

0.5

2.0

1.7

1.3

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

0.7

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

1.4

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.6

1.1

6.2

2-90

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-1.2

-1.5

-0.4

-6.6

3-90

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

1.5

-0.7

5.6

4-90

-0.2

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

-1.8

-1.4

-3.8

-2.3

1-91

-1.7

-2.1

-2.7

-3.1

-3.8

-4.3

-4.5

-6.9

-7.1 -12.8 -15.8

2-91

-1.8

-2.2

-2.7

-3.1

-3.7

-4.2

-4.2

-6.2

-6.1

-9.7

-9.7

-3.1

3-91

-1.9

-2.3

-2.8

-3.1

-3.6

-4.1

-4.1

-5.7

-5.6

-8.1

-7.6

-3.2

-3.4

4-91

-2.2

-2.6

-3.0

-3.3

-3.8

-4.2

-4.2

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

-7.0

-3.9

-4.3

-5.2

1-92

-1.8

-2.2

-2.5

-2.8

-3.2

-3.5

-3.5

-4.6

-4.3

-5.9

-5.1

-2.2

-1.9

-1.2

3.0

2-92

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

-1.4

-1.7

-1.8

-1.7

-2.5

-2.0

-3.0

-1.8

1.2

2.3

4.3

9.4

16.1

3-92

-0.6

-0.8

0
H
1

542.2

2-89
3-89

-1.1

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.9

-1.4

-2.3

-1.1

1.5

2.5

4.0

7.3

9.5

4-92

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

-0.4

-1.0

0.2

2.7

3.7

5.1

7.9

9.5

6.4

9.7

1-93

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

-0.4

0.2

-0.3

0.7

3.0

3.9

5.2

7.4

8.6

6.1

7.7

5.6

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

541.8
536.7
544.8
535.6
542.9
529.3

-9.6

507.0
503.0
498.7
492.1
495.8
514.7
518.7

3.1

530.9
538.2

First quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

3-88

6.8

4-88

10.3

14.0

1-89

12.1

14.9

15.7

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

424.1
438.2
454.5

2-89

13.1

15.3

16.0

16.3

3-89

10.5

11.5

10.7

8.3

0.8

4-89

11.0

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

1-90

10.9

11.6

11.2

10.1

8.0

11.9

10.7

2-90

10.4

11.0

10.5

9.4

7.8

10.2

8.8

7.0

3-90

9.2

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.1

7.5

5.7

3.3

-0.2

4-90

9.4

9.7

9.2

8.3

7.0

8.3

7.2

6.0

5.5

11.6

472.0
472.9
487.7
500.2
508.7
508.4
522.6

1-91

8.0

8.2

7.5

6.5

5.2

6.0

4.6

3.1

1.9

3.0

-5.0

2-91

8.7

8.9

8.4

7.6

6.6

7.4

6.5

5.7

5.4

7.3

5.2

16.6

515.9

3-91

8.5

8.7

8.2

7.5

6.5

7.3

6.5

5.8

5.5

7.0

5.5

11.3

6.2

4-91

8.9

9.0

8.6

8.0

7.2

7.9

7.3

6.8

6.8

8.3

7.4

11.9

9.7

536.1
544.2
13.3

561.4

1-92

8.4

8.6

8.2

7.5

6.8

7.4

6.8

6.3

6.2

7.3

6.5

9.6

7.4

7.9

2.9

2-92

7.8

7.9

7.4

6.8

6.1

6.6

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.1

7.3

5.1

4.7

0.7

-1.4

565.4

3-92

7.9

7.9

7.6

7.0

6.3

6.8

6.2

5.8

5.7

6.4

5.7

7.6

5.9

5.8

3.5

3.7

9.2

563.4
575.9

4-92

7.9

8.0

7.6

7.1

6.5

6.9

6.5

6.1

6.0

6.7

6.1

7.8

6.4

6.4

4.8

5.4

9.0

8.9

1-93

7.1

7.1

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.9

5.3

4.9

4.7

5.2

4.5

5.8

4.4

4.1

2.3

2.2

3.4

0.6

-7.1

588.3

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

577.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

3-88

8.7

4-88

10.2

11.7

1-89

5.0

3.1

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

526.1
540.9
-4.8

534.3

2-89

5.2

4.0

0.4

5.8

3-89

5.4

4.6

2.4

6.2

6.5

541.9

4-89

5.1

4.4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

4.7

4.1

2.6

4.5

4.1

3.0

2.6

550.5
555.0
558.6

2-90

4.8

4.2

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.7

3.9

5.1

3-90

4.4

3.9

2.8

4.1

3.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

1.5

565.6

4-90

3.0

2.4

1.3

2.2

1.6

0.7

0.1

-0.8

-3.6

567.7
-8.5

555.3

1-91

1.3

0.6

-0.6

0.0

-0.9

-2.0

-3.1

-4.4

-7.4 -11.6 -14.6

2-91

2.4

1.9

0.9

1.6

1.1

0.3

-0.2

-0.7

-2.1

-3.3

-0.6

15.6

3-91

3.5

3.1

2.3

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.4

1.4

5.0

16.4

17.1

4-91

3.5

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.0

4.8

12.2

10.5

1-92

3.5

3.2

2.5

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.2

4.5

9.9

8.1

3.9

3.5

2-92

4.2

3.9

3.4

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.9

6.1

10.9

9.7

7.4

9.0

14.7

533.8
553.5
575.8
581.8

4.2

586.8
607.3

3-92

4.8

4.6

4.1

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.2

7.3

11.5

10.7

9.2

10.9

14.8

14.8

4-92

4.8

4.6

4.2

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.9

4.9

5.3

7.1

10.7

9.9

8.5

9.5

11.6

10.1

5.7

1-93

4.4

4.2

3.7

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.1

4.4

5.9

8.8

7.9

6.4

6.9

7.7

5.5

1.1

-3.2

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

628.6
637.3
632.2

First quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

3-88

-0.9

4-88

2.0

5.0

1-89

0.8

1.6

-1.6

2-89

1.9

2.8

1.8

5.3

3-89

2.4

3.2

2.6

4.9

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

883.7
894.5
890.8
902.3
4.5

912.2

4-89

2.0

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

2.6

3.2

2.9

4.0

3.6

3.2

6.4

2-90

2.4

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

2.5

3.7

1.1

3-90

1.9

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.0

1.4

1.8

-0.4

-2.0

4-90

2.3

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

6.1

1-91

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.0

2.3

4.4

2.8

2-91

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.4

1.6

1.7

3.0

1.5

0.2

3-91

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.9

1.7

0.2

-1.0

-2.3

4-91

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

-0.6

-1.7

-2.6

-3.0

1-92

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.5

0.9

-0.1

-0.9

-1.2

-0.7

.1-7

2-92

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

-1.2

-0.8

0.2

-1.2

3-92

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.6

1.0

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

1.4

1.3

3.8

4-92

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.6

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

0.4

0.0

0.6

-2.6

1-93

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

-0.8

-1.3

-1.5

-1.3

-1.0

-1.7

-1.8

-4.5

-6.4

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

912.6
926.8
929.4
924.8
938.5
945.1
945.6
940.2
933.1
937.0
934.2
943.0
936.8
921.5

First quarter data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88
2-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

14.5

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

364.2

3-88

7.6

1.2

4-88

10.0

7.9

15.0

365.3
378.3

1-89

4.9

1.9

2.3

-9.1

2-89

4.0

1.6

1.7

-4.4

369.4
369.9

0.5

3-89

1.0

-1.5

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

0.4

-1.8

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

-8.2

1-90

2.2

0.5

0.4

-2.3

-0.5

-0.8

5.8

15.6

2-90

3.9

2.7

2.9

1.0

3.1

3.8

10.1

17.3

19.1

3-90

-0.1

-1.6

-1.9

-4.1

-3.3

-4.0

-1.7

-1.2

-8.6 -29.9

4-90

-0.8

-2.3

-2.6

-4.6

-4.0

-4.7

-3.0

-3.0

-8.5 -19.7

-8.2

1-91

-0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.4

-2.7

-3.2

-1.4

-1.1

-4.9 -11.8

-1.0

6.7

2-91

-0.4

-1.6

-1.8

-3.4

-2.7

-3.1

-1.6

-1.4

-4.4

-9.6

-1.6

1.9

-2.6

3-91

-0.9

-2.0

-2.2

-3.7

-3.1

-3.5

-2.3

-2.2

-4.8

-9.0

-2.9

-1.1

-4.7

-6.8

4-91

-0.4

-1.4

-1.6

-2.8

-2.2

-2.5

-1.3

-1.0

-3.2

-6.5

-1.0

0.9

-1.0

-0.1

7.1

1-92

2.2

1.4

1.4

0.5

1.3

1.4

2.9

3.6

2.2

0.0

6.1

9.2

9.8

14.3

26.7

49.8

2-92

2.3

1.6

1.6

0.8

1.6

1.6

3.1

3.7

2.5

0.6

5.9

8.4

8.8

11.8

18.9

25.2

3-92

1.4

0.6

0.6

-0.3

0.4

0.3

1.5

2.0

0.7

-1.2

3.2

4.9

4.6

6.1

9.6

10.5

-5.1 -13.9

4-92

4.2

3.7

3.8

3.2

4.0

4.3

5.8

6.5

5.7

4.5

9.2

11.6

12.3

15.0

20.0

23.5

15.7

21.7

72.1

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

357.3
-3.1

354.5
367.6
384.0
351.4
344.0
349.6
347.3
341.2
347.1
384.0
388.4

4.7

374.1
428.5

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

18

Gross Saving as a P ercent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
P ercent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus governm ent surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
797.0

2-88

-1.7

3-88

-0.8

4-88

2.4

4.5

9.2

1-89

3.3

5.0

7.6

6.0

2-89

1.1

1.8

2.3

-0.9

3-89

0.9

1.4

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

4-89

2.0

2.6

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

3.5

4.2

4.9

4.1

3.7

7.6

11.6

14.4

2-90

4.3

5.0

5.8

5.2

5.1

8.4

11.4

12.7

11.0

3-90

1.0

1.3

1.5

0.4

-0.5

1.0

1.2

-1.2

-8.2 -24.1

4-90

2.6

3.1

3.4

2.7

2.2

3.9

4.7

3.7

0.4

-4.5

20.1

1-91

3.6

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.7

5.4

6.3

5.8

3.8

1.5

17.4

2-91

3.6

4.0

4.4

3.9

3.7

5.2

5.9

5.4

3.7

2.0

12.5

8.9

3.4

3-91

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.8

4.0

4.4

3.8

2.2

0.5

7.8

4.0

-1.0

-5.2

4-91

4.2

4.7

5.0

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.2

5.1

4.1

11.0

8.8

6.9

8.6

24.5

1-92

4.4

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.9

6.5

6.3

5.3

4.5

10.2

8.4

6.8

8.0

15.3

6.7

2-92

4.6

5.0

5.3

5.0

5.0

6.1

6.6

6.4

5.6

4.9

9.9

8.3

7.0

7.9

12.7

7.3

7.8

3-92

4.9

5.3

5.6

5.4

5.3

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.0

5.5

9.9

8.6

7.6

8.4

12.1

8.3

9.0

10.3

4-92

4.1

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.3

5.1

5.5

5.3

4.5

3.8

7.5

6.1

4.9

5.1

7.3

3.4

2.3

-0.3

-9.9

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

797.0

0.0
814.8
826.7

811.0

-7.4

811.2
828.6
856.9
879.5
820.9
859.3
14.8

889.4
896.9
884.9
934.8
950.1
968.1
992.1
966.6

Fourth quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

19

B usiness Productivity and Com pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1982 = 100
4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
110.1

2-88

-1.4

3-88

0.0

1.5

4-88

0.0

0.7

0.0

1-89

-0.6

-0.4

-1.3

-2.5

2-89

-0.6

-0.4

-1.0

-1.4

-0.4

3-89

-0.8

-0.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.1

-1.8

4-89

-0.6

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-0.6

-0.7

0.4

1-90

-0.5

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.4

-0.4

0.4

0.4

2-90

-0.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.7

3.0

3-90

-0.3

-0.1

-0.4

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.7

-1.4

4-90

-0.3

-0.1

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.4

-0.9

-0.4

1-91

-0.4

-0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-1.1

-0.9

-1.5

2-91

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.2

1.8

3-91

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.5

1.8

1.8

4-91

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.8

2.3

2.6

3.3

1-92

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.1

3.0

3.7

4.0

2-92

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

2.5

1.1

3-92

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.4

4-92

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.6

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

110.5

-0.3




110.5

-0.4
-0.5

109.8
109.7
109.2
109.3
109.4
110.2
109.8
109.7

0.3

-0.4

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.7

0.9

0.9

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.9

109.3
109.8
110.3
111.2
112.3

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.4

2.6

2.8

1.5

1.3

1.7

2.0

2.5

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.1

3.2

1.8

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.0

3.9

4.7

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

2.7

112.6
113.5
114.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 9, 1993

20

N e t

F e d e r a l

D e b t

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of
Dollars

Initial Quarter
1 -8 8

2 -8 8

6 .7

3 -8 8

7 .5

2 -8 8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1-91

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

1 -9 2

4 -9 1

2 -9 2

3 -9 2
2 ,0 2 1 .2
2 , 0 6 2 .0

8 .3

4 -8 8

6 .6

6 .6

4 .9

1 -8 9

6 .7

6 .7

6 .0

7 .1

2 -8 9

6 .5

6 .5

5 .8

6 .3

5 .6

3 -8 9

6 .7

6 .7

6 .2

6 .7

6 .5

4 -8 9

7 .0

7 .0

6 .7

7 .2

7 .3

8 .1

8 .7

1 -9 0

7 .9

8 .1

8 .1

8 .7

9 .1

1 0 .3

1 1 .8

1 5 .0

2 -9 0

8 .3

8 .5

8 .6

9 .2

9 .6

1 0 .6

1 1 .7

1 3 .2

1 1 .5

3 -9 0

8 .7

8 .9

9 .0

9 .6

1 0 .0

1 0 .9

1 1 .8

1 2 .8

1 1 .7

2 , 0 8 6 .6
2 , 1 2 2 .5
2 ,1 5 1 .7
7 .5

2 , 1 9 0 .8
2 , 2 3 6 .9
2 , 3 1 6 .3
2 , 3 8 0 .4
2 , 4 4 8 .3

1 1 .9

2 , 5 2 7 .5

4 -9 0

9 .1

9 .4

9 .5

1 0 .1

1 0 .5

1 1 .3

1 2 .1

1 3 .0

1 2 .3

1 2 .7

1 3 .6

1 -9 1

9 .1

9 .3

9 .4

1 0 .0

1 0 .3

11.0

1 1 .6

1 2 .2

1 1 .5

1 1 .5

1 1 .3

9 .1

2 , 5 8 3 .4
2 , 6 5 6 .6

2 -9 1

9 .3

9 .5

9 .7

1 0 .1

1 0 .5

1 1 .1

1 1 .6

1 2 .1

1 1 .6

1 1 .6

1 1 .5

1 0 .5

1 1 .8

3 -9 1

9 .8

1 0 .0

1 0 .2

1 0 .7

11.0

1 1 .7

1 2 .2

1 2 .7

1 2 .3

1 2 .5

1 2 .6

1 2 .3

1 3 .9

1 6 .1

4 -9 1

9 .8

1 0 .0

1 0 .1

1 0 .6

1 0 .9

1 1 .5

1 1 .9

1 2 .3

1 2 .0

1 2 .0

1 2 .0

1 1 .7

1 2 .5

1 2 .9

9 .7

1 -9 2

9.9

1 0 .1

1 0 .2

1 0 .7

11.0

1 1 .5

1 1 .9

1 2 .2

1 1 .9

1 2 .0

1 2 .0

1 1 .7

1 2 .3

1 2 .5

1 0 .7

2 , 7 5 7 .6
2 , 8 2 2 .2
2 ,9 0 1 .1

1 1 .7

2 , 9 9 2 .5

2 -9 2

1 0 .1

1 0 .3

1 0 .4

1 0 .9

1 1 .1

1 1 .6

1 2 .0

1 2 .3

1 2 .1

1 2 .1

1 2 .2

1 1 .9

1 2 .5

1 2 .6

1 1 .5

1 2 .4

1 3 .2

3 -9 2

1 0 .1

1 0 .3

1 0 .4

1 0 .8

11.0

1 1 .5

1 1 .8

1 2 .1

1 1 .8

1 1 .8

1 1 .8

1 1 .6

1 2 .0

1 2 .0

11.0

1 1 .5

11.4

9 .6

4 -9 2

9.9

1 0 .1

1 0 .2

1 0 .5

1 0 .8

1 1 .2

1 1 .5

1 1 .7

1 1 .4

1 1 .4

1 1 .3

11.0

1 1 .3

1 1 .2

1 0 .3

1 0 .4

1 0 .0

8 .5

7 .4

1 -8 8

2 -8 8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

2 -9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

1 -9 2

2 -9 2

3 -9 2

3 ,0 6 1 .7
3 ,1 1 6 .5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 2 9 , 1993

FEDERAL G O VER NM EN T DEBT
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs )
S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d E nd o f M o n th T o ta ls
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

374.9
367.3
398.3
392.5

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

383.8
389.3
406.9
419.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

427.2
436.2
443.7
452.3

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.0

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

471.6
492.2
502.1
509.4

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts
National
income accounts
budget

Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-149.9
-20 6.3
-18 2.0
-18 7.2

-133.7
-18 3.7
-179.5
-190.6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-18 3.3
-22 3.8
-21 9.7
-17 7.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-15 2.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-10 9.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1086.7
1109.6
1119.9
1113.3

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1254.5
1266.5
1265.5
1307.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-167.8
-156.9
-145.6
-194.6

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1114.6
1117.3
1127.7
1129.4

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.4
1329.4
1348.7
1388.1

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-149.9
-212.2
-221.0
-258.7

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1143.3
1149.8
1155.4
1193.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1432.5
1452.7
1459.8
1488.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-289.2
-302.9
-304.4
-295.5

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1

N.A.

N.A.

1490.1

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A. — Not A vailab le
Fiscal years
Estimates

Actual
1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Total budget

Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$ 734.1 $ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1091.6
946.4

990.3

1003.9

1064.1

1143.2

1252.7

1323.8

1381.8

$ -21 2.3 $ -2 2 1 .2 $ -149.8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .2

$ 1147.6 $ 1230.3
1474.9
1522.7
$ -3 2 7 .3

$ -2 9 2 .4

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$ 788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1122.2 $ 1160.4
969.9

1028.2

1065.6

1109.0

1181.6

1273.6

1332.7

1458.4

$ -18 1.4 $ -2 0 1 .0 $ -151.8 $ -1 3 6 .6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 1 0 .4 $ -2 9 8 .0

Cyclically adjusted budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
980.3

1029.4

1071.6

1189.6

1278.1

$ -171.9 $ -1 8 5 .4 $ -154.0 $ -1 6 6 .2 $-1 64 .1

1115.9

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from OMB’s Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Alternatives for the Future (January 6, 1993).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




22

Government D eficit(-)/S u rp lu s( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions o f Dollars

1987

1988

1989

Billions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1993

National income accoun ts basis
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of S t. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-92

3-92

294.0

3-88

-1.1

<*-88

1.4

3.9

1-89

-0.6

-0.3

-4.4

2-89

1.2

1.9

0.9

6.6

3-89

2.8

3.8

3.8

8.2

296.8
293.5
298.2
305.3

9.9

302.5

4-89

1.7

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

3.2

4.0

4.0

6.2

6.0

4.2

12.6

2-90

3.0

3.6

3.6

5.3

4.9

3.3

7.0

1.7

3-90

2.0

2.4

2.2

3.4

2.7

1.0

2.6

-2.0

-5.6

4-90

3.7

4.3

4.4

5.7

5.5

4.7

6.8

5.0

6.7

20.6

1-91

4.5

5.0

5.2

6.4

6.4

5.8

7.8

6.7

8.4

16.2

11.9

2-91

3.4

3.8

3.8

4.8

4.5

3.8

5.1

3.7

4.2

7.6

1.7

-7.6

3-91

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.7

3.6

2.2

2.3

4.4

-0.5

-6.2

-4.8

4-91

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.2

1.4

2.0

0.6

0.4

1.6

-2.6

-7.0

-6.8

-8.7

1-92

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.8

1.1

1.6

0.3

0.1

1.1

-2.4

-5.7

-5.0

-5.1

-1.4

311.6
312.9
308.4
323.2
332.4
325.9
321.9
314.7
313.6
311.7

2-92

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.9

1.5

0.8

1.2

0.0

-0.2

0.6

-2.4

-5.0

-4.4

-4.2

-1.9

-2.4

3-92

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.5

2.2

1.5

2.0

1.0

0.9

1.8

-0.6

-2.6

-1.5

-0.7

2.1

3.9

10.5

4-92

1.7

1.9

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.7

0.8

0.7

1.4

-0.8

-2.5

-1.6

-0.9

1.1

2.0

4.2

1-93

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.9

0.5

-0.1

0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.6

-2.7

-4.4

-3.9

-3.7

-2.7

-3.1

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-9:

1-92

319.6
-1.7

318.2

-3.3

-9.5 -16.7

304.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

First quarter data are advanca estiaates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Fcst Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Su bscriber:

Please include address label with
subscription inquiries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91

2-90

3-88

-3.4

4-88

7.2

1-89

9.5

16.6

14.4

2-89

8.1

12.2

9.1

4.1

3-89

6.5

9.1

6.0

2.1

4-89

7.8

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

9.1

11.3

9.8

8.7

10.3

15.8

16.6

2-90

8.5

10.3

8.9

7.9

8.9

11.9

10.5

3-98

7.7

9.2

7.8

6.8

7.3

9.2

7.4

3.0

1.5

4-90

8.1

9.5

8.4

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

6.0

6.6

1-91

5.2

6.1

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.2

2.2

-1.2

-3.0

2-91

7.4

8.4

7.4

6.7

7.0

8.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
803.3

18.8

838.7
867.3
876.0
0.1

876.2
907.3
942.9
4.6

953.6
957.1
12.0

984.7
932.0

-5.2 -19.7
6.5

3.9

34.4

1,003.5

3-91

7.6

8.5

7.6

7.0

7.3

8.3

7.3

5.8

6.1

7.3

5.7

21.4

9.6

4-91

8.4

9.3

8.6

8.1

8.5

9.4

8.8

7.7

8.2

9.6

9.0

20.7

14.4

1,026.8
19.4

1,073.4

1-92

9.«

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.3

10.3

9.8

8.9

9.6

11.0

10.8

20.1

15.6

18.7

18.1

2-92

8.9

9.8

9.2

8.8

9.2

10.1

9.6

8.8

9.4

10.6

10.3

17.6

13.7

15.1

13.0

8.1

3-92

8.4

9.2

8.5

8.1

8.4

9.2

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.1

8.7

14.4

10.8

11.0

8.4

3.8

-0.3

4-92

8.5

9.3

8.7

8.3

8.6

9.3

8.9

8.2

8.5

9.4

9.0

13.9

10.8

11.0

9.0

6.2

5.2

11.0

1-93

8.4

9.0

8.5

8.1

8.4

9.0

8.6

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.6

12.8

10.0

10.1

8.3

6.0

5.3

8.2

5.5

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1,118.9
1,141.0
1,140.2
1,170.4
1,186.1

First quarter data are advance estiaates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 29, 1993

24