Full text of National Economic Trends : May 1989
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s May 1989 In th e fir s t q u a r te r o f 1 9 8 9 , th e n a t io n ’ s r e a l G N P r o s e at a 5 .5 p e r c e n t a n n u a l r a te , s u g g e s t in g a r e v e r s a l th e p r e v io u s s l o w i n g t o a 2 . 8 p e r c e n t r a te in 1 9 8 8 f r o m a 5 p e r c e n t g r o w t h r a te in 1 9 8 7 . T h e s u r g e in o u t p u t g r o w t h c a n b e e x p la in e d l a r g e l y , h o w e v e r , b y a n a s s u m e d r e b o u n d f r o m la s t y e a r ’ s d r o u g h t . F o r e x a m p l e , a s s h o w n in t h e t a b le b e l o w , th e m a r k e d in c r e a s e in fa r m i n v e n t o r y a c c u m u l a t i o n i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r r e f l e c t s t h is a d j u s t m e n t a n d a c c o u n t s f o r m u c h o f t h e s h a r p r is e in o u t p u t . A c c o r d in g to th e D e p a r tm e n t o f C o m m e r c e , th e d r o u g h t r e d u c e d re a l G N P g r o w th b y a b o u t $ 1 2 b illio n , o r 0 .6 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s , d u r in g t h e f o u r q u a r t e r s o f 1 9 8 8 . T h e d r o u g h t - r e l a t e d l o s s in o u t p u t w a s r e a l i z e d in t h e la s t t h r e e q u a r te r s o f 1 9 8 8 a n d r e d u c e d a n n u a l r e a l G N P g r o w t h b y 0 . 9 , 0 . 5 a n d 1 .1 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y ; t h e r e p o r t e d g r o w t h ra tes w e r e 3 , 2 .5 a n d 2 .4 p e r c e n t. B e c a u s e fa r m s a le s a p p e a r e d t o b e u n c h a n g e d , m u c h o f t h e r e d u c t i o n in fa r m o u t p u t w a s c a p t u r e d b y a d e c l i n i n g p a c e o f in v e n t o r y a c c u m u la t io n . T o th e e x t e n t th a t fa r m o u t p u t h a s r e tu r n e d to a n o r m a l l e v e l , th e c o n s i d e r a b l e fir s t -q u a r t e r g r o w t h in r e a l G N P la r g e ly r e fle c t s a o n e - t i m e r e b o u n d in fa r m o u t p u t f o l l o w i n g th e d r o u g h t . T h e D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e e s t im a te s th at a b o u t 2 .5 p e r c e n t a g e p o in t s , o r $ 2 5 b i l l i o n , o f fir s t -q u a r te r r e a l G N P g r o w t h c a n b e a t t r ib u t e d t o t h is r e b o u n d . C hanges in R eal G N P (b illio n s 1 /1 9 8 8 R eal G N P $ 3 3 .1 an d S e le c te d o f 1982 C om p on en ts d o lla r s ) 1 1 /1 9 8 8 I I I /1 9 8 8 I V /1 9 8 8 $ $ $ 2 9 .1 2 4 .2 2 4 .0 1 /1 9 8 9 $ 5 4 .8 P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t io n e x p e n d it u r e s F i x e d in v e s t m e n t 2 8 .1 1 9 .2 2 4 .8 2 2 .4 8 .6 5 .3 1 6 .8 6 .9 1 .4 9 .6 -1 .1 -3 0 .7 4 .2 -1 0 .4 2 4 .7 -6 .1 -7 .7 2 1 .1 C h a n g e in b u s in e s s i n v e n t o r ie s N o n fa rm G ov e rn m e n t p u rch ases N et ex p orts 1 5 .2 00 oo 1 F arm -1 6 .3 -2 1 .8 1 0 .3 -2 .8 3 .5 -1 6 .2 7 .4 -1 0 .3 2 2 .0 2 .2 1 7 .0 1 6 .4 -1 .3 -1 1 .5 9 .8 — M i c h e l l e R . G a r fm k e l THE FEDERAL RESKRU lUNkot ST. IX>1 IS Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T (Com pounded A n n u a l R ates o f C hange) INITIAL MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 9-87 -1 .5 10-87 1.1 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-68 12-88 1-89 2-89 112*896 115,225 5.6 115*460 11-87 1.6 5.0 2.5 12-87 1.9 5.0 2.8 5.0 1-88 2.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 2-88 2.2 5.0 2.8 2.9 2 .8 2.5 5-88 1.7 2 .2 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.4 -1 .5 4-88 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 5.7 5-88 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 1.4 -2 .7 6-88 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 5.1 1.8 115*740 114*055 114*275 114*129 114*660 114*405 6.5 115*001 115*054 7-88 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 2 .4 1.5 5.4 0.5 8-88 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 2 .5 1.4 2.8 1.1 1.8 9-88 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 2 .2 1.5 2.6 1.5 1.8 115.205 115*570 1.8 115*575 10-88 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.1 11-88 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 5.0 12-88 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 0.6 1-89 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.4 5.0 2.6 2.9 5.2 5.5 4.0 4.0 7.5 2-89 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 5.1 5.4 5.2 4.4 1.5 5-89 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 5.1 5.5 5.1 5.9 2.2 2.9 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 8-87 115*947 4.0 116*009 116*711 116*855 117*156 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 7* 1989 PAYROLL EM PLOYMENT (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 INITIAL MONTH 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6—88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 102*906 9-87 2.8 10-87 4.2 5.6 11-87 4.0 4 .6 5.6 12-87 5.9 4.5 5.7 5.8 1-88 5.8 4 .0 5.5 5.4 5.1 2-88 4.0 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.5 5-88 4.0 4.2 5.9 5.9 4.0 4.4 4-88 5.8 4.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 4.0 5.2 5.0 5-88 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 6-88 4.0 4.1 5.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.9 4.0 4.5 6.7 7-88 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.8 4.5 2.4 8-88 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.6 2.1 1.8 9-88 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 2.6 2.7 5.6 10-88 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 2.6 2.7 5.1 2.7 11-88 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.9 12-88 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.8 2.5 1-89 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8 4.1 5.7 4.8 2-89 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.5 4.0 5.2 5-89 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.5 2.6 2.0 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 1-89 2-89 105*571 105*678 104*001 104*262 104*729 5.4 105*020 105*281 105*489 106*057 106*271 106*425 106*757 106*975 5.1 107*419 107*641 ! ! 1 8-87 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 108*065 108*345P 108*525P I N IT IA L MONTH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AP R IL 7* 1 9 8 9 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MILLIONS OF PERSONS 130 i 1 * I5 * $ if « § SCALE MILLIONS OF PERSONS 130 t \ 125 i 120 120 2 l 1 7.1 T A T •• TOT AL 115 115 +2. 110 ^108.5 105 110 105 +4 ( t /.S Z 1*/ JX 100 100 - /.o r 95 + 4 . 61 H .2 Z 90 80 7 95 PA YROLL ^ 90 A -I .9 Z 85 7 r > $ 5 t t Ï 1981 1982 $ $ % 1 t 1983 1984 1985 85 $ 1986 1987 1988 I 1989 80 SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 198«. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3*. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* MARCH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT RATE PERCENT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 1 .0 10. 1 0 .0 9. 9.0 8. 8 .0 7 7.0 . 6. 6 .0 5. 5.0 4 . 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED; MARCH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 4.0 C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S (Com pounded A n n u a l R ates o f Ch an ge) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 1982-84-100 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 114.6 9-87 2.1 10-87 3.2 4.3 11-87 3.5 4.3 4.3 115.0 115.4 115.6 12-87 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.1 1-88 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.7 5.3 116.1 2-88 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 2.1 3-88 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.9 3.1 116.3 4.2 116.7 4-88 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.2 3.8 4.7 5.3 5-88 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.9 5.3 5 .2 117.2 6-88 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.7 4.9 4 .7 4.2 7-88 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.7 5.2 8-88 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.1 117.7 118.1 118.6 119.0 9-88 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.2 10-88 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.9 4 .8 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.1 119.5 11-88 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.0 12-88 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.6 120.0 120.3 4.1 120.7 1-89 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.6 7.2 2-89 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.9 4 .8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.4 6.1 5.1 3-89 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 4 .9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.6 6.1 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 8-87 121.4 121.9 122.5 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 18» 1989 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G OODS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 9-87 INITIAL MONTH 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 1982 * 100 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 106.2 5.8 -2 .2 106.0 10-87 1.7 11-87 1.1 -1 .1 0.0 12-87 0.0 -1 .9 -1 .7 -3 .3 1-88 1.6 0.6 1.5 2.3 8 .2 2-88 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 4.0 0.0 3-88 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.3 4 .2 2.3 4.6 4-88 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.5 4 .0 2.7 4.0 3.4 5-88 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.7 3.9 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 6-88 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.6 2.7 3.4 3.0 2 .8 2.3 7-88 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.1 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.6 6.9 8-88 2.6 2.4 2.8 3.2 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.9 4 .0 4.2 5.1 3.4 9-88 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.3 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.7 5.1 6.8 10-88 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.3 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.9 4 .0 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.9 1.1 11-88 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.6 3.7 2.2 3.3 12-88 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.0 3.9 4 .5 1-89 3.5 3.4 3.8 4 .0 4.6 4.3 4.7 4.7 4 .9 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 6.8 8 .5 12.7 4 .6 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.4 5 .6 5 .9 6.3 6.3 6.7 6.7 8 .2 9.8 12.6 12.6 4.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5 .6 5 .8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.5 7.6 8 .7 10.2 9.0 5.5 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 2-89 4 .0 3.9 4.3 3-89 4.1 4.0 4.4 8-87 106.0 105.7 106.4 106.4 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.6 108.2 108.5 109.1 109.2 109.5 109.9 111.0 112.1 112.6 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 14» 1989 4 RATIO SCALE 1982-100 P R IC E S RATIO SCALE 1982-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CONSUMER P R I C E S D A T A AR E ON A I 9 S 2 - S 4 - I 0 0 I A S E C P I - U O A TA B E G IN N IN G I « S 3 IN C O R P O R A T E A R E N T A L E M I V A L E N C E M EASURE FOR HOM EOVNERSH1P C O S T S . P E R C E N TA G E S A R E AN NU AL R A T E S OP CHANGE F O R P ER 100 8 I N D IC A T E D . L A T E S T O A T A P L O T T E D « MARCH PREPARE» I Y ratio scale 1982-100 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E RANK O f S T . L O U IS PRODUCER PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED P E R C E N TA G E S A R E AN NU AL R A T E S OF CHAN GE FOR P E R IO D S SCALE 1982-100 ratio IN D IC A T E D . L A T E S T O A T A P L O T T E O t MARCH PREPAREO SY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOOIS 5 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S (Com pounded A n n u a l R ates o f Change) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 1982 « 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 1 00 2-89 9-87 6.8 10-87 2.8 -1 .1 109.9 11-87 2.6 0.5 12-87 -1 .4 -5 .9 1-88 2.4 1.4 2-88 1.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 6.8 -4 .5 5-88 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 6.8 l.l 4-88 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 5.0 0.7 5.5 0.0 5-88 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 5.4 2.2 4.4 5.5 6.7 6-88 5.1 2.7 5 .8 5.5 8 .4 10.2 7-88 5.6 5.5 6.4 6.4 8.6 9.5 8 .9 8-88 5.9 5.7 4.2 4.4 6.7 5.0 6.7 6.6 8.4 8 .9 8.5 7.7 9-88 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.0 7.2 5.8 7.5 7.4 8.9 9.5 9.2 9.4 11.1 114.6 114.7 109.8 2.2 110.0 108.8 -5 .5 -1 2 .5 2.2 5.2 5.8 2 .2 5.5 4.0 110.4 19.1 6.2 6.5 5.7 4.6 110.0 110.6 6.7 110.6 111.2 112.1 112.9 115.6 10-88 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.7 6.5 5.2 6.5 6 .4 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.5 6.0 1.1 11-88 4.2 4.0 4.4 4.6 6.5 5.1 6.2 6.2 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.4 2.6 5.0 4.5 2.1 2.6 1.0 6.5 6.2 5.1 6.4 7.5 14.4 115.1 4.5 12-88 4.0 5.8 4.2 4.4 5.9 4.8 5.7 5.6 6.5 6.2 5.6 1-89 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.0 6.5 5.5 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.2 6.8 2-89 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 7.1 6.5 7.2 7.2 8 .0 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.1 8.6 10.1 14.9 15.4 8.1 8.1 7.6 9.0 10.2 15.5 15.0 10.7 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5.5 8-87 7.4 6.6 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.2 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 5.4 5.8 6.0 115.2 116.5 117.9 118.9 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 14. 1989 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S, EXCLUDING FOODS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 9-87 5.9 10-87 1.2 INITIAL MONTH 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 1982 * 100 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 105.0 -5 .4 104.7 11-87 0.4 -2 .5 -1 .1 12-87 0.6 -1 .1 0.0 1.2 1-88 1.2 0.0 1.2 2.5 3.5 2-88 1.5 0.7 1.7 2.7 5.5 3.5 5-88 1.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 5.1 2.9 2.5 4-88 2.0 1.5 2.5 5.0 3.5 3.5 5.5 4.6 5-88 2.0 1.6 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 5.1 3.5 104.6 104.7 105.0 105.5 105.5 105.9 2.5 106.1 6-88 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.1 0.0 7-88 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 5.0 5.2 2.7 2.9 106.1 5.8 106.6 8-88 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.1 5.1 5.2 2.9 5.1 4.6 5.4 9-88 2.5 2.2 2.7 5.1 3.3 3.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 10-88 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.9 5.1 3.1 5.0 5.1 2.9 5.0 5 .7 5.0 2.8 1.1 11-88 2.4 2.2 2.6 5.0 3.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.7 5.1 5.0 2 .5 5.4 12-88 2.6 2.4 2.9 5.2 3.3 5 .5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 4.0 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.6 5 .7 1-89 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5 .4 6.9 8 .7 11.7 2-89 5.5 5.4 5.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.4 7.7 9.2 11.0 10.4 5-89 5.6 5.5 5.9 4.5 4.5 * .6 4.6 4.8 4 .9 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.2 7.5 8 .5 9.2 7.9 5.6 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 8-87 106.9 107.5 107.4 107.7 108.2 109.2 110.1 110.6 I N IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS APRIL 1 4 » 1 9 8 9 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1977-100 SCALE 1977-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt MARCH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 INITIAL MONTH 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 1977 » 100 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 131.0 9-87 -1 .8 10-87 6.1 14.6 11-87 6.2 10.5 6.5 12-87 6.5 9.2 6.5 6.5 1-88 6.0 8 .0 5.9 5.5 4 6 2-88 4 .9 6.5 4.4 5.7 2 5 5—88 4.6 5.7 4 .0 5.4 2 4 1.5 2 .7 4-88 4.8 5.8 4.4 4.0 5 4 3.0 4.5 152.5 155.2 155.9 154.4 0.0 154.4 154.7 6.4 155.4 5-88 5.0 5.9 4.7 4.4 4 0 3.8 5.2 6.4 6.4 6-88 4.9 5.6 4.6 4.5 5 9 3.8 4.8 5.5 5.0 3.6 7-88 5.7 6.4 5.6 5.5 5 5 5.4 6.5 7.5 7.9 8 .7 14.0 8-88 5 .6 6.5 5.5 5 .5 5 2 5 .3 6.2 6.9 7.0 7.2 9.1 4.4 9-88 5 .2 5.8 5.0 4 .9 7 4 .7 5.4 5.9 5.8 5.6 6.3 2.6 0.9 10-88 5.5 5.9 5.2 5.1 9 5 .0 5.6 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.5 4.1 4.0 7.2 11-88 5.5 5.8 5.1 5.0 9 4.9 5.5 5.8 5.8 5 .7 6.1 4 .2 4.1 5 .8 4 .4 12-88 5.2 5.7 5.1 5.0 9 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.6 5 .5 5 .8 4 .2 4.2 5 .3 4 .4 4.4 1-89 5.2 5.7 5.1 5.0 9 4 .9 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.4 5 .7 4 .4 4.4 5.3 4 .7 4.8 5.3 2-89 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.7 5 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.0 4 .8 5.0 3.8 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.2 2.6 0.0 5-89 4.7 5.0 4.5 4.4 2 4.2 4 .5 4 .7 4.5 4.3 4 .4 3.3 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 8-87 156.1 156.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 159.9 140.4 141.0 141.OP 141.OP IN IT IA L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 14# 1989 7 PERSONAL RATIO INCOME MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.6 3.2 2 .8 2.4 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCEi U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt MARCH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOM E (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 INITIAL MONTH 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5,820.8 9-87 5 5 10-87 15 7 26.8 11-87 8 7 10.4 5,897.2 -4 .0 5,884.1 5,959.0 12-87 11 1 15.0 6.6 18.5 1-88 7 6 8.1 2.5 6.0 -5 .1 2-88 7 7 8.1 5.9 6.6 1.2 7.9 5-88 8 4 8.8 5.5 8.1 4.8 10.2 5,921.8 5,946.7 12.6 5,985.9 4,001.0 4-88 7 9 8.2 5.4 7.4 4.8 8 .5 8 .5 4.6 5-88 7 7 8.0 5.5 7.2 5.1 7.8 7.8 5.5 6.5 4,021.4 4,044.9 4-88 7 7 7.9 5.7 7.2 5.4 7.7 7.7 6.1 6.8 7.2 7-88 7 8 8 .0 6.1 7.5 6.0 8 .0 8 .0 6.9 7.6 8 .5 9.4 8-88 7 6 7.8 6.0 7.2 5.9 7.5 7.5 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.2 5.0 9-88 7 5 7.7 6.1 7.2 6.0 7.5 7.4 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.1 5.9 6.9 10-88 8 5 8.5 7.1 8 .2 7.2 8 .7 8.8 8 .3 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.2 12.9 11-88 7 5 7.7 6.5 7.2 6.5 7.5 7.4 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.5 6.8 7.4 7.6 -2 .9 7.8 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.6 8.2 8 .6 5.7 10.8 4,075.5 4,091.8 4,114.7 19.2 4,175.5 4,165.2 4,200.8 12-88 7 7 7.9 6.6 7.5 6.6 7.8 1-89 8 5 8.7 7.6 8 .5 7.8 8 .9 9.0 8 .7 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.9 11.9 9.6 16.4 22.5 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.2 12.1 10.4 15.2 17.6 15.0 10.5 15.9 4,271.9 2-89 8 8 9.0 7.9 8 .8 8 .1 9.2 9.3 5-89 8 8 9.0 8.1 8 .9 8 .5 9.3 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.7 14.9 11.4 9.9 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 8-87 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 4,515.6 4 ,5 4 9 .7P IN IT IA L MONTH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS A PR IL 27» 1989 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1981 1982 SEASONALLY AOJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1986 1987 SOURCEt U .S . 1988 1989 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: FEBRUARY, MARCH ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL MONTH 8-87 9-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 INITIAL MONTH DOLLARS 5-88 6-88 4-88 - 8 .5 MILLIONS OF 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 129*427 10-87 - 9 .5 -1 0 .5 11-87 —5 .6 -4 .0 2.9 12-87 - 1 .2 1.4 7.9 13.1 1-88 0.0 2.2 6.8 8 .8 2-88 2.2 4.5 8 .7 10.7 9.5 14.5 5—88 4.5 6.9 10.7 12.8 12.7 16.9 19.4 4-88 5.5 5.1 8 .0 9.0 8 .0 9.2 6.6 -4 .9 5-88 3.8 5.5 8 .0 8 .9 8.1 8 .9 7.1 1.5 8 .2 8 .0 8 .8 8.1 8 .8 7.4 3.6 8 .2 8 .2 7.4 7.1 6.0 128*235 128*541 129*870 4.7 150*564 151*846 155*806 155*249 154*150 6-88 4.3 5.8 7-88 4.4 5.8 7.8 8 .4 7.8 8 .3 7.1 4.2 8—88 4.3 5 .6 7.4 7.9 7.2 7.6 6.5 4.1 6.4 5.8 4.7 3.5 6.4 6.8 6.1 6.3 5.1 2.9 4.6 3.7 2.2 0.4 -2 .6 5.2 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.6 8 .2 20.1 6.5 8 .2 8 .2 10.6 17.9 15.7 6.3 7.1 10.5 6.0 - 2 .9 9.8 6.5 2.2 9-88 3.8 4.9 10-88 4 .9 6.0 7.5 11-88 5.6 6.7 8.1 12-88 5.0 6*0 7.3 1-89 5.2 6.1 7.3 7.6 7.2 2-89 4 .5 5 .3 6.4 6.6 6.2 5-89 4.3 5.1 6.1 8-87 7.9 8 .5 7.6 7.4 8.1 7.2 7.7 8 .5 6.9 7.8 8 .2 155*662 8 .8 156*050 155*751 157*842 139*529 139,189 6.7 5.4 6.8 6.6 7.4 6.8 5.6 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 7.2 6.3 5.6 4.5 5.4 5.1 4 .8 4.6 4.8 6.3 3.1 -0 .8 0.3 - 6 .5 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.3 5.5 2 .8 -0 .2 0.7 -2 .6 1.4 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 7.4 5.8 5.9 5.3 4.2 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 6.3 155*010 6.4 7.6 140,040 139»258P 159*419E IN IT IA L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL IS* 1989 9 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (Com pounded A n n u a l R a tes o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-84 2-8« 2.7 5-84 5.5 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 5-86 2-86 1977*100 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 166.9 4.4 168.7 4-84 5*6 4.1 5.8 1-85 4.0 4 .5 4.6 5 .5 2-85 4.0 4 .4 4.4 4 .6 4.0 5-85 4.2 4 .5 4.6 4 .8 4.6 170.5 172.5 174.2 5.1 176.4 4-85 4 »4 4.7 4.8 5 .0 4.9 5.4 5.6 1-86 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.6 5.6 2-86 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4 .5 4.5 5.6 5.6 5-86 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.9 4.0 4.5 4-86 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.1 4 .5 4.7 4.9 178.8 180.4 182.0 184.0 186.2 1-87 4.1 4.5 4 .5 4 .5 4.2 4.2 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.6 2.4 2-87 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.0 5.7 5-87 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.9 4.0 5.9 5.5 4.1 4.5 4-87 4.5 4.4 4.4 4 .4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.2 1-88 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.8 2-88 4.5 4 .4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4 .2 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.8 5-88 4.4 4 .5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 6.2 4-88 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 .5 4 .5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.4 4.7 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 187.5 189.0 191.1 194.0 195.8 198.1 201.1 205.4 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 7» 1989 OU TPU T PER H OU R OF ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 INITIAL QUARTER 2-84 5-84 2-84 1.9 5-84 0.8 -0 .4 4-84 1.0 0.6 1.5 1-85 1.5 1.4 2.5 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 1977-100 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 105.6 105.5 105.9 5.1 106.7 2-85 1.8 1.8 2.5 5.0 5.0 5-85 2.0 2.0 2.7 5.0 5.0 107.5 5.0 108.5 4-85 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 0.7 1-86 2.5 2 .6 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.7 4.1 7.6 2-86 2.2 2 .2 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 5.5 -0 .4 5-86 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 -0 .9 -1 .4 4-86 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 -0 .8 -1 .1 -0 .7 1-87 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .2 0.4 2-87 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 5-87 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.9 1.5 2 .5 5.5 4.0 4-87 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.2 0.4 1-88 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.7 2 .2 2.6 2.7 2.0 5.6 2-88 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 5-88 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 -0 .9 1.8 4-88 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 -1 .2 0.0 -1 .8 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 108.5 110.5 110.4 110.0 109.8 109.9 110.6 111.7 111.8 112.8 -5 .5 111.8 112.5 111.8 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 7» 1989 10 P R O D U C T IV IT Y , C O M PEN SA T IO N , RATIO SCALE 1977-100 1981 AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE 1977-100 SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCE« U .S . D E P A R TM E N T OF LAB O R P E R C E N TA G E S AR E AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S L A T E S T O A TA P L O T T E D » IN D IC A T E D . 4 TH O U A R TE R PREPARED BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS UNIT LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 INITIAL QUARTER 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 2-84 0.5 5-84 2.7 4.9 4-84 2.5 5.6 2.5 1-85 2.4 5.0 2.1 2.0 2-85 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 5-85 2 .2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.5 4-85 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.6 5.5 4.5 1-86 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 - 3 .6 2-86 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.1 4.0 3-86 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2 .0 5.0 6.0 4-86 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 5.1 5.2 2.9 5.2 5.8 5-86 1977*100 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 158.0 159.9 160.8 161.6 162.0 165.0 164.8 165.5 164.9 167.5 5.6 169.6 1-87 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 5.0 5.0 2.8 4.4 4.6 5.9 2.1 2-87 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 3.7 5.6 2.8 1.4 0.7 5-87 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 .2 3.2 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.7 170.5 170.8 0.7 171.1 4-87 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 2.5 2.4 5.2 5 .7 1-88 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 5.1 2.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.8 0.0 2-88 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 5.0 5.1 2.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 2.9 5.1 5.7 4 .7 4.2 8 .6 5-88 2.8 5.0 2.9 2.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 3.1 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.5 3.8 4 .6 4.2 6.4 4.4 4-88 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 3.4 4.0 4.0 5.8 5.6 5.8 4.5 5.1 4 .9 6.6 5.6 6.9 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 175.5 175.5 177.1 179.0 182.0 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 7» 1989 11 G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o a p o u d e d A n n u a l R a tes o f Ch an ge) IN IT IA L QUARTER t e r m in a l quarter 2 -8 4 5-84 4 -8 4 1-85 2-8 5 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-8 4 5-86 4 -8 6 1-87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2 -8 8 5-88 4 -8 8 5—84 5 .8 4-84 5 .5 4.7 1-85 6.1 6.5 7.9 2-85 6.0 6.0 6.7 5.6 5-85 6.2 6.5 6.8 6.5 7.0 4-85 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.2 6.6 6.2 1-86 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.2 2-86 5 .9 5 .9 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.5 4.9 2.6 5-86 5 .9 5 .9 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.5 4-86 5 .6 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.0 4.7 5.4 1-87 5 .9 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.9 5.9 2-87 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.6 6.8 8 .5 8 .7 5-87 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.5 6.1 6.8 7.0 8 .2 8 .2 7.7 4-87 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 7.1 7.5 8 .5 8 .5 8.1 8 .6 1-88 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.0 5.4 2-88 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.0 8 .7 5-88 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.1 8 .0 7.5 4-88 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.8 7.4 7.6 1-89 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.4 7.5 8 .0 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.7 8 .5 8 .2 8 .6 9.7 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5 ,8 0 7 .9 5,851.8 5,925.6 5,979.0 4,047.0 4,107.9 4,180.4 4,207.6 5.9 4,268.4 4,504.6 8 .4 4,591.8 4,484.2 4,568.0 4,662.8 4,724.5 4,825.8 4,909.0 4,999.7 5,1 1 6 .8E INITIAL QUARTER E- ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26# 1989 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1 9 » DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 INITIAL QUARTER 5-84 5-84 2 .6 4-84 2.1 1.7 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5,520.6 5,555.2 1-85 5.0 5.5 4.9 2-85 2.9 5.0 5.7 2.4 5-85 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.5 4-85 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.2 5.5 &.0 1-86 5.6 5.7 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.6 6.4 2-86 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.1 2.8 2.7 -0 .8 5-86 2 .8 2.8 5.0 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 0.1 1.0 4-86 2 .7 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.6 1.2 1.4 1-87 2 .8 2.8 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 1.5 2.5 5.0 4.6 2-87 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 5.0 5.7 4.8 5.0 5-87 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 2.6 5.5 5.9 4.7 4.7 4-87 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.8 4.5 5 .0 5.2 5.5 6.1 1-88 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.7 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.7 "4.8 5.4 2-88 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.6 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 5.2 3.0 5-88 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.5 5.8 4.1 4.1 5.9 5.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 4-88 5.2 5.5 5.4 3.5 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 2.8 2 .6 2.4 2.4 1-89 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.8 4.1 4.0 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.0 5.5 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5,577.5 5,599.2 4.1 5,655.8 5,662.4 5,719.5 3,711.6 3,721.5 3,754.7 5,776.7 5,825.0 5,865.5 4.5 5,925.0 5,956.1 5,985.2 4,009.4 4,055.4 4,0 8 8 .2E IN IT IA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS APRIL 26* 1989 12 GROSS RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF NATIONAL PRODUCT Q U A R T E R L Y TOT AL S AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS S E A S O N A L L Y ADJU S TE D T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2 .8 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOU RCE« PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLO TTED« DATA ANNUAL RATES 1ST OF Q U ARTER CHANGE FOR ADVANCE P E R IO D S 1987 U .S . 1988 D E PARTM EN T 1989 OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . E S T IM A T E PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS 13 2 . 6 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO SCALE 1982-100 1981 1982-100 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 1987 1988 1989 SOUftCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* 1ST QUARTER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FO R GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 INITIAL QUARTER 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1982 « 100 1-87 5-84 5.4 4-84 5.2 5.0 1-85 5.0 2.8 2.6 2-85 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5-85 5.0 2.9 2 .8 2.9 2.6 4-85 5.0 2 .9 2 .9 5.1 2.*9 5.5 1-86 2 .7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 2-86 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 5.6 5-86 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.1 4.7 4-86 2.9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2.8 2.9 2.8 5.5 5.4 2.1 1-87 5.0 2 .9 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.5 5.4 2.8 5.5 2-87 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.5 5-87 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.4 5.5 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.2 112.4 115.4 114.7 115.5 116.5 117.5 5.1 118.2 4-87 5.0 2.9 2 .9 5.0 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.5 5.2 2.9 5.1 5.0 2.7 2.4 1-88 2 .9 2.9 2.8 2 .9 2.8 2.8 2 .8 5.1 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.7 2-88 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.5 5-88 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.1 4.7 4-88 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 4.5 5.2 5.0 5.5 1-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.6 5.9 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 118.9 119.4 121.0 122.4 124.0 125.2E IN IT IA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) B IL LIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 3-84 5 6 4-84 6 4 7.2 1-85 7 7 8.7 10.2 2-85 7 5 8.2 8.7 7.1 3-85 8 0 8 .6 9.1 8.5 9.9 4-85 7 7 8.1 8.3 7.7 7.9 6.0 1-86 7 4 7.7 7.8 7.2 7.2 5.9 5.8 2-86 7 1 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.6 5.6 5.4 4.9 3-86 7 5 7.7 7.8 7.4 7.4 6.8 7.1 7.7 4-86 7 2 7.4 7.4 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.6 4.8 1-87 7 1 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.3 5 .6 6.5 2-87 7 4 7.5 7.6 7.3 7.5 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.9 7.1 8 .2 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 2,450.3 2*493.4 2,554.9 2.599.3 2 .661.4 2,700.4 2 ,739.0 2,772.1 2,842.8 10.6 2,876.0 2,921.7 2,992.2 10.0 3,058.2 5-87 7 5 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 8 .2 7.6 8.5 9.6 9.1 4-87 7 1 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.2 6.5 7.0 7.1 5.7 2.4 1-88 7 1 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 6.6 7.0 7.1 6.1 4.6 6.9 2-88 7 2 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.4 6.9 7.3 7.4 6.8 6.0 7.8 3,076.5 3,128.1 3,194.6 8 .8 3,261.2 3-88 7 3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.1 6.6 8.1 8 .7 8 .6 4-88 7 4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.3 7.0 8 .1 8 .5 8 .4 8 .2 1-89 7 3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.2 6.9 7.8 8.1 7.8 7.4 6.7 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 3,326.4 3 ,3 8 0 .4E INITIAL QUARTER E- ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 D O IX A RS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 3-84 INITIAL QUARTER 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 1.9 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2,257.5 4-84 3.1 4.3 1-85 4.3 5.6 6.8 2-85 4.0 4.8 5.0 3.2 3-85 4.6 5.3 5.6 5.0 6.8 4-85 4.1 4.6 4.6 3.9 4.3 1.9 1-86 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.5 3.5 4.8 2-86 4 .2 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.7 4.6 4.3 2,281.1 2,519.1 2,357.4 2,575.9 2,586.9 2,415.1 2,4 40.9 3-86 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.3 5.2 5.3 6.3 4-86 4.1 4.4 4 .4 4.1 4.2 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 2,478.6 1.2 2,4 86.2 1-87 5.8 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.7 0 .9 0.6 2-87 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.7 3 .8 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.1 2 .0 2.5 4.3 3-87 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.4 2 .7 3.2 4.5 4.6 4-87 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.7 2 .5 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.2 -2 .1 1-88 3.5 5.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.0 2 .8 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.5 1.2 4 .5 2-88 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 2 .5 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.8 5.8 5.0 3-88 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.1 2 .9 2 .5 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.5 5.8 5.5 5.9 4-88 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2 .6 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.5 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.5 1-89 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2 .8 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.5 5.2 2 .9 2.9 2.4 1.5 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 2,4 90.2 2,5 16.6 2,5 45.2 2 ,531.7 2 ,559.8 2,5 79.0 2,6 03.8 2 ,6 26.2 2.634.8E IN IT IA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOU IS APRIL 2 6 * 1 9 8 9 15 GROSS PRIVATE DOM ESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOULARS (Compounded Annua) Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 2 -8 4 5-84 4 -8 4 5-84 5.7 4-84 - 0 .7 -5 .0 1-85 -5 .0 -9 .0 -1 2 .9 2-85 - 1 .8 -5 .6 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-8 8 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 670.5 661.8 - 2 .9 659.5 8 .4 652.5 -5 .9 -1 4 .8 5-85 - 4 .5 -6 .5 - 7 .0 4-85 -1 .0 - 1 .9 -1 .2 5.1 0.6 18.7 1-86 1.9 1.6 5.0 7.4 7.1 20.0 2-86 0.5 -0 .2 0.6 5.6 2.4 8.8 5-86 - 0 .8 -1 .5 - 0 .8 1.4 0.1 4.2 -0 .2 -9 .5 -8 .6 4-86 - 0 .5 -0 .9 -0 .4 1.5 0.4 5.8 0.4 -5 .8 -5 .4 2.1 1-87 1.2 0.9 1.6 5.6 2.9 6.2 5.8 -0 .2 5.5 10.2 18.9 2-87 1.7 1.5 2.2 4 .0 5.5 6.4 4.5 1.4 4.6 9.4 15.2 626.7 654.1 21.4 686.6 4.2 -1 0 .5 667.8 655.0 656.4 685.5 7.8 698.5 5-87 1.8 1.6 2 .2 5.9 5.4 5.9 4.2 1.6 4.2 7.6 9.5 5.1 2.5 4-87 4.1 4.1 4.9 6.7 6.6 9.5 8.1 6.4 9.5 15.5 16.5 15.7 19.9 40.5 1-88 5.8 5.8 4.5 6.1 5.9 8.2 7.1 5.4 7.9 11.0 12.8 11.4 12.6 18.0 -0 .8 2-88 5.4 5.5 4 .0 5.4 5.1 7.2 6.1 4.5 6.5 8 .9 10.1 8 .4 8.5 10.6 -1 .8 -2 .7 5-88 5.6 5.6 4.2 5 .6 5.5 7.2 6.2 4.8 6.7 8 .8 9.8 8 .5 8.4 9.9 1.5 2.4 702.8 764.9 765.4 758.1 7.8 772.5 4-88 5.4 5.4 5.9 5 .2 4.9 6.6 5.7 4.4 6.0 7.7 8 .4 7.0 6.9 7.8 0.9 1.5 5.7 -0 .5 1-89 4.4 4.5 5.0 6.5 6.1 7.8 7.0 5.9 7.6 9.5 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.5 5.5 6.9 10.5 11.6 24.8 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 772.0 81 5.9E INITIAL QUARTER E- ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 GROSS PRIVATE DOM ESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 INITIAL QUARTER 5-84 5-84 5.6 4-84 - 0 .8 -5 .0 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 664.2 655.7 1-85 - 4 .9 -8 .8 -1 2 .4 2-85 - 1 .7 -5 .5 - 2 .5 5-85 - 4 .9 - 6 .9 - 7 .6 4-85 -1 .1 - 2 .0 - 1 .2 1-86 1.7 1.4 2.7 2-86 -0 .5 - 1 .0 - 0 .4 654.5 8 .6 647.5 - 5 .0 -1 7 .0 6.9 618.1 0.2 20.8 6.5 20.5 0.7 7.4 648.0 678.0 19.8 1.5 -14.4 652.1 5-86 -2 .1 - 2 .8 - 2 .5 - 0 .7 -2 .5 1.5 -4 .2 -1 4.5 -1 4 .2 4-86 - 2 .6 - 5 .5 - 5 .0 -1 .6 -5 .2 -0 .2 -4 .9 -1 1.9 -1 0 .6 627.6 -6 .9 616.5 1-87 - 0 .7 -1 .1 - 0 .6 0.9 -0 .1 5.0 -0 .2 -4 .7 -1 .2 6.1 20.9 2-87 0.1 - 0 .2 0.5 1.8 1.0 5.8 1.2 -2 .1 1.2 7.0 14.6 8 .8 5-87 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.4 4.0 1.7 -1 .0 1.9 6.4 11.5 6.8 4.8 4-87 2.8 2.7 5.4 4 .6 7.5 5.8 5.9 7.5 12.2 17.6 16.5 20.5 58.6 1-88 2 .7 2.7 5.5 4 .7 4.4 6.8 5.4 5.7 6.6 10.5 14.5 12.8 14.1 19.1 2 .5 2-88 2.1 2.0 2 .5 5.8 5.4 5.4 4.0 2.4 4 .7 7.7 10.4 8 .4 8 .5 9.5 -2 .6 -7 .4 5-88 2 .5 2.5 2 .8 5.9 5.6 5.5 4.2 2.8 4 .9 7.6 9.8 8.1 7.9 8 .7 0.5 -0 .8 6.5 4-88 1.9 1.8 2 .5 5.0 4.7 5.4 2.1 5.9 6.1 7.9 6.1 5.7 5.9 -1 .0 -2 .2 0.6 -4 .9 1-89 2 .8 2.8 5.5 4.0 5.7 4.7 5.5 5 .5 7.5 9.2 7.8 7.7 8 .2 2.9 5.1 6.8 7.1 20.5 2-84 5-84 4-84 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-85 646.4 660.1 667.9 724.7 728.9 715.1 726.1 717.1 751.4E IN IT IA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Com pounded A n n u a l Rates o f Ch an ge) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 BILLIO NS OF INITIAL QUARTER 5-84 5-84 6.0 4-84 8 .0 9 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 DOLLARS <ANNUAL RATES 746.6 764.5 1-85 8 .9 10 4 10.8 2-85 9.0 10 0 10.0 9.1 784.4 801.7 840.2 S-85 11.2 12 5 15.4 14.7 20 6 4-85 10.7 11 6 12.1 12.5 14 2 8.1 1-86 8 .4 8 8 .6 8.1 7 1.8 -4 .1 2-86 8 .7 0 8 .9 8 .5 8 4.6 2.8 10.5 5-86 8 .4 7 8 .5 8.1 7 5.0 5.9 8 .2 6.1 4-86 7.7 9 7.7 7.2 6 4.4 5.5 6.1 4.1 2.1 1-87 7.8 9 7.7 7.5 7 5 .0 4.4 6.6 5.4 5.1 8 .0 2-87 7.6 7 7.5 7.1 6 5.0 4.5 6.4 5.4 5.2 6.7 5.4 5-87 7.6 7 7.5 7.1 6 5.5 4.9 6.5 5 .8 5.7 6.9 6.4 7.4 4-87 7.5 6 7.4 7.1 6 5.5 5.2 6.5 5 .9 5.9 6.9 6.5 7.0 6.6 1-88 6.9 0 6.7 6.4 6 2 4.8 4.5 5 .6 4 .9 4.7 5.5 4.6 4.5 2.8 - 0 .9 2-88 6.9 0 6.8 6.5 6 2 5.0 4.7 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.1 5.0 4 .2 5.0 7.1 5-88 6.5 4 6.1 5.8 5 5 4.4 4 .0 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.4 5.8 5.4 2 .5 1.1 2.1 - 2 .6 4-88 7.0 1 6.9 6.6 6 4 5.4 5.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.6 5 .5 7.4 7.6 18.9 1-89 6.9 0 6.8 6.5 6 4 5.4 5 .2 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.0 5.8 5.8 5 .6 5.5 7.0 6.9 12.0 5 .5 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 856.7 847.8 868.8 881.8 886.5 905.8 915.7 952.2 947.5 945.2 961.6 955.5 997.5 1»010.9E INITIAL QUARTER E- ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2-88 5-88 4-88 684.5 5-84 2.6 4-84 5.9 5.2 1-85 5.0 6.2 695.2 7.5 705.5 716.7 2-85 5.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 5-85 8.1 9.5 11.0 15.0 19 8 10 5 749.8 4-85 7.0 7.9 8 .6 9.0 1-86 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.1 752.7 2-86 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.0 5 9 1.6 1.6 9.5 5-86 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.7 5 6 2.5 2.5 6.9 4.5 1.6 4 7 -2 .1 -5 .7 741.8 758.8 766.9 4-86 5 .5 5.6 5.7 5 .5 5 5 2 .6 2.9 5 .9 4.2 4.0 1-87 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.7 4 4 2 .0 2.1 4 .2 2 .5 1.6 -0 .8 2-87 4.5 4 .5 4.4 4.1 5 8 1.7 1.7 5.5 1.8 0.9 -0 .6 -0 .4 5-87 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4 0 2.2 2.5 5.7 2 .5 2.1 1.4 2.6 5.7 4-87 4 .5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4 1 2.5 2.6 5.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 5.4 5.4 5 .0 774.5 772.9 772.2 782.9 792.6 1-88 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.2 5 0 1.4 1.4 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.7 - 1 .7 - 7 .9 2-88 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5 0 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.6 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.2 - 2 .2 5.9 776.4 785.8 5-88 5.1 5.1 5.0 2.7 2 4 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 -0 .1 0.1 0.1 -1 .2 - 5 .2 - 0 .7 - 5 .2 4-88 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5 0 1.8 1.9 2 .6 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.4 5.5 5 .0 11.9 1-89 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.1 2 9 1.8 1.8 2 .5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 0 .5 2.7 2.4 6.4 1.1 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 775.5 795.5 797.7E IN IT IA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 17 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Com pounded A n n u a l Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 BILLIONS OP DOLLARS 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 2*691.1 5-84 7.5 4-84 6.6 5 .7 1-85 6.2 5.5 5.4 2-85 7.9 8 .0 9.1 2*728.6 2*764.6 15.1 2*850.7 5-85 5 .9 5.5 5 .5 -1 .5 4-85 6.4 6.1 6.5 6.6 5.5 8.6 1-86 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.5 5.4 9.0 9.4 2-86 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.2 5.8 8.4 8 .2 7.1 5-86 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.4 5.1 6.8 6.2 4.6 4-86 6.1 5 .9 6.0 6.1 4.9 6.5 5.7 4.5 5.2 1-87 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6 5.8 7.0 6.7 6.0 5 .7 7.5 10.7 2-87 6.1 5 .9 6.0 6.0 5.2 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.6 5.4 5.9 1.5 5-87 6.5 6.2 6.4 5.6 6.6 6.5 5.8 5 .5 6.5 7.0 5.2 9.5 4-87 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.2 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 7.4 8 .2 7.4 10.5 11.8 1-88 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6 .« 7.4 8 .0 7.4 9.5 9.6 7.4 2-88 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.0 8 .5 8 .2 6.5 2*840.0 2*899.5 2*965.1 5*016.5 5*052.4 2.2 4.5 5*064.7 5*145.9 5*154.1 5*224.9 5*515.8 5*575.6 5.6 5*421.5 5-88 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.5 8 .0 7.6 8 .9 8 .8 7.8 8 .0 10.4 4-88 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.7 7.4 7.5 7.1 7.1 7.7 8.1 7.7 8 .9 8 .8 8 .0 8 .5 9.6 8 .8 1-89 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 8 .2 8.7 8 .4 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.5 10.9 11.1 15.5 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5*507.5 5*582.5 5*696.4E INITIAL QUARTER E- ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOM E IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compovaded Annual Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85- 5-85 4-85 1-86 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 2*479.2 5-84 5.7 4-84 5.5 2.8 1-85 2 .9 2.5 2.1 2-85 4.4 4.6 5.5 8 .9 5-85 2 .6 2.5 2.1 2.1 -4 .5 4-85 2 .9 2.7 2 .7 2 .8 -0 .1 4 .4 1-86 5.6 5.6 5.8 4 .2 2 .7 6.5 8 .5 2-86 4 .0 4.0 4 .2 4 .6 5.6 6.4 7.4 6.5 5-86 5 .5 5.5 5.5 5.5 2.5 4 .5 4.2 2.5 -1 .8 4-86 5.1 5.0 5.0 5 .2 2.2 5.6 5.4 1.8 -0 .5 0.8 2*496.5 2*509.4 2*565.5 2*555.4 2*562.8 2*614.5 2*655.9 2*645.9 2*649.4 1-87 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 2 .6 5.8 5.6 2.5 1.2 2.7 4.6 2-87 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 1.7 2 .6 2.5 1.2 -0 .1 0.4 0.5 -5 .9 5-87 2 .8 2.7 2 .7 2 .7 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.5 4 .8 4-87 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.2 2.5 1.8 2 .6 5.0 2 .5 5.8 6.9 1-88 5 .2 5.1 5.2 5.5 2 .8 5.5 5.4 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.4 5.1 5 .5 5 .9 5 .0 2-88 5.0 2.9 2.9 5.0 2.5 5.2 5.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 2 .5 4.1 5.9 2.5 0.0 5-88 5.1 5.1 5.1 5 .2 2 .8 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.4 2.9 5.2 5 .0 4 .4 4 .5 5.5 2.8 5.6 4-88 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 2 .8 5.4 5.5 2.9 2 .5 5.0 5.5 5.1 4 .4 4 .5 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.1 1-89 5 .4 5.4 5.4 5 .5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.5 5.8 5.7 4 .8 4 .8 4.4 4.5 5.8 5.8 7.7 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 2*679.6 2*652.8 2*685.9 2*728.9 2*762.5 2*762.2 2*800.4 2*828.4 2*881.IE IN IT IA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS A PR IL 26» 1989 18 C O R P O R A T E P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S (Com pounded A n n u a l Rates o f Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1 -8 4 2-84 5-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 151.2 141.4 -1 1 .5 -1 5 .2 -1 9 .5 -2 4 .2 -2 4 .6 -5 9 .4 2-85 -1 5 .1 -1 7 .9 -1 5 .9 -2 0 .4 5-85 -1 0 .5 -1 1 .8 2-86 2 -8 5 -1 4 ,0 -2 5 .5 1-85 1-86 1 -8 5 -5 .4 4-84 4-85 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER -6 .1 159.2 122.8 4.6 124.2 -8 .6 -9 .5 10.7 -7 .2 -5 .5 -2 .9 15.7 18.5 19.9 -1 0 .1 -1 1 .0 -8 .8 -9 .5 0.5 -1 .1 -9 .1 -5 1 .0 -6 .6 -6 .7 1.7 1.0 -5 .9 -1 4 .0 -6 .6 -8 .5 -8 .9 17.1 129.2 155.2 125.2 125.4 7.5 152.6 5-86 -5 .4 -5 .7 -5 .2 -2 .7 5.5 5.4 2.6 -2 .6 15.8 25.0 4-86 -5 .6 -5 .6 -1 .1 -0 .5 6.9 7.2 5.4 2.0 16.2 20.9 17.0 1-87 -5 .9 -5 .9 -1 .7 -1 .2 5.0 5.1 5.2 0.2 10.0 10.9 4.4 157.9 155.5 -6 .8 2-87 -2 .4 -2 .5 -0 .1 0.5 6.4 6.6 5.2 2.9 11.5 12.5 8.6 4.7 17.6 5-87 -0 .6 -0 .5 1.9 2.6 8.2 8.6 7.6 5.9 15.8 15.1 12.7 11.4 21.7 26.0 141.1 4-87 -1 .2 -1 .1 0.9 1.5 6.4 6.6 5.5 5.8 10.1 10.5 7.8 5.7 10.2 6.6 -9 .8 1-88 -0 .5 -0 .5 1.6 2.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 4.6 10.1 10.5 8.5 6.6 10.5 7.9 -0 .1 149.5 145.7 10.6 149.4 162.7 2-88 1.5 1.8 5.8 4.6 9.0 9.4 8 .7 7.7 15.2 15.9 12.4 11.7 15.8 15.5 11.9 24.7 40.7 5-88 2.5 2.7 4.6 5.5 9.6 10.0 9.4 8.5 15.5 14.2 12.9 12.4 15.9 15.6 15.1 22.0 28.1 16.7 4-88 2.9 5.2 5.1 5.8 9.8 10.2 9.7 8.9 15.5 14.1 15.0 12.5 15.6 15.2 15.2 19.8 25.0 15.0 15.4 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 169.1 174.5 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS APRIL 26» 1989 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF RATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1985-88:11 are published in the July 1988 Survey of Current Business. Data for 1984 is in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 is in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States. 1929-82: Statistical Tables. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 72 72 68 68 64 64 1 .60 60 1 .56 56 52 52 48 48 44 44 1 .40 40 36 36 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE *BEGINNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHAN6ES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY REVISED FROM 1982 PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
@FedFRASER