Full text of National Economic Trends : May 1980
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nflnonfli Economic t r e d d s P R E P A R E D Month Ending: B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E A pril 30, 1980 B A N K O F ST. L O U I S Released: May 30, 1980 Economic a c tiv ity has weakened dram atically since early in the year, and signs of accumulating downward momentum are beginning to appear. Prices continue to surge upward despite developing signs of economic weakness. Trends in the U.S. economy over the past two years are summarized in the accompanying table. The table focuses on the period since January, comparing it with the previous 10 months and with the year ending March 1979. The period since January is one of economic decline, and the March 1979 to January 1980 period is one in which economic a c tiv ity slowed from the rapid pace of expansion that occurred from March 1978 to March 1979. The economic expansion which began in March 1975 showed signs of weakening during 1979. Relative to the previous year, the growth rates of income and sales changed lit t le during the March 1979 to January 1980 period, but production and employment growth slowed as prices accelerated. Since January 1980, measures of income and sales growth have dropped sharply. These declines, in combination with a further acceleration of prices, have resulted in a sharp reduction in production and employment. Trends in Business In d icators (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Jan. 1980 to Apr. 1980 Mar. 1979 to Jan. 1980 Mar. 1978 to Mar. 1979 4.7 % -19.3 11.3 % 12.5 13.2 % 12.4 -10.3 2.6 -1.5 -0.3 1.5 2.2 7.7 3.8 4.4 15.9 14.3 - 8.7 22.4 13.9 13.0 2.8 16.6 10.4 10.6 12.9 9.8 Income and sales Personal income R etail sales Produc tion and employment Industrial production Total c iv ilia n employment Payroll employment Prices Consumer Producer -- finished goods Consumer foods Excluding foods _______ t o t a l COMPOUNDED INITIAL TfcRHINAL KQNTH C I V I L I A N fcHPLPyMfcH T ___ _ A N N U A L R A T E S O F CHANGfc 9—7 ti 10-70 11-78 12—7 B 1-79 2-79 3-79 *-7 9 5-79 THOUSANDS ij f PERSONS MONTH 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 l-ttO ¿- « U 3-ttO 5 .5 ~ 11-78 4 .9 W 12-78 3 .7 2*7 1^ 79 ~3*8 2 .7 V 6» kt> 2-79 3 .9 3 .5 3.2 ~V 6*49t> 3—79 3 .5 3.1 2 .8 3 .3 2 .9 1 .6 96*o¿3 4-79 2 .3 1 .8 1.3 1 .3 0 .* - 1 .5 V 6*Z 54 T-79 2 .4 2 .0 1 .6 1 .7 -©To - 0 .8 3 .0 6-79 2 .4 2 .0 1 .7 1 .7 1.2 0 .5 0 .1 2 .5 2 .0 2 .4 2 .1 1 .7 1 .8 3 .9 4 .4 6 .8 ^ x ^ 1.5 1 .1 0 .9 2 .4 2 .1 2.2 2 .1 1 .8 1 .8 3 .1 2 .5 ~8—79 2 .3 2 .0 9-79 2 .7 2 .4 10-79 T .V 2 .2 11-79 2 .4 2*1 95*t»5l 1 .3 l a ' ' <0 • Hr-79 1 10-78 2 .3 1.8 2*2 2-80 2 .1 1 .8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .0 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 2 .0 1 .9 3-80 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 4—80 1 .4 1.2 1 .0 1 .0 96,*9!> 1.1 1.1 1 .3 0.8 0.6 0 .5 ..«-:7ft l f l - 7 f i . l i r . l f t 12.-7 a -L r3 9 . 2 r J 9 . . 3 -7 ? 2 .4 2 .3 2 .6 2 .5 2 .1 v7,ltt*» 97*004 - 2 * 2 ^ n^ - 0 . 5 % 97*504 2 .0 2 .6 1 .2 2.9 - 0 .4 2 .4 1 .3 2.5 0 .6 97*474 97*608 1 .7 97*912 1.7 2 .0 1 .6 1 .4 1.4 0 .9 0 .7 0.6 4 -7 ? V6*65¿ ................ ..... 2 .0 1 .5 2 .0 2 .0 1-80 1 .8 r 1 .4 0 .7 - 0 .0 2.0 1.2 0.2 5 t 7S . A riS L .J t z to L. 5 r2 2 1.1 1 .5 1 .2 -1.3 97*804 1 .4 0 .3 97 * 9 * 5 0 .3 0 .4 0 .1 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 - 3 .6 - 0 .6 -0 .7 - 1 .1 - 2 .3 - 2 .6 - 4 .8 Í - 1 X . 10-79 11-79 12-79 97*656 97*154 - 6 .0 ^ 1-ftO . 2 rfi0 3-«Q . . 1-80 3-80 IN IT IA L MONTH COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 10—78 THOUSANOS OF P£ft£OCI& IN IT IA L MONTH 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 2-80 5 .5 87*424 11-78 5 .7 5 .9 12-78 5 .2 5 .0 4 .1 1-79 4 .9 4 .7 4 .1 4 .2 2-79 4 .7 4 .4 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3—79 4 .7 4 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .7 4-79 4 .0 3 .7 3 .3 3 .1 2 .8 2 .3 |[ - 0 .0 5-79 4 .1 3 .9 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 2 .4 5 .0 ©7*840 88*133 08*433 88*700 89*059 89*036 89*398 89*626 6-79 4 .0 3 .8 3 .5 3 .4 3 .3 3 .2 2 .7 4 .0 3 .1 " 7-79 3 .7 3*5 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .3 3 .1 2 .1 1.2 •-79 3 .4 3 .2 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .0 2 .5 1 .6 0 .9 0 .7 9-79 3 .2 3 .0 2 .7 2 .5 2 .3 2 .1 1 .7 2 .1 1 .4 0 .8 0 .6 10-79 3 .1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 1 .8 2 .1 1 .6 1 .2 1.2 ... 11-79 3 .0 2.8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .3 2 .1 1 .8 2 .1 1 .6 1 .3 1 .3 1.5 2 .0 1 .6 \ 12-79 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .1 1 .8 2 .0 1 .6 1.4 1 .4 1.6 2 .0 1 .7 89*713 89*762 89*803 89*982 90*100 1 .9 90*241 1-80 3.1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .4 2 .1 2 .0 2.1 2 .4 2 .9 3 .0 3 .7 5 .6 2-80 3.1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 2 .4 2 .8 2 .9 3 .3 4 .1 3-80 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 1 .9 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 1 .0 —0 .6 4-80 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 1 .9 1.7 1*6 1 .3 1 .4 1.1 0 .9 0 .9 0 .9 1 .0 0 .8 0 .6 0 .3 - 1 .5 - 3 .4 - 6 .1 J 9-78 -10—78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 90*652 90,845 90 * ?99P 90*320P P- PRELIMINARY pr epa r ed MAV 2 * 2 by 1980 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK -Of JUT*.. LO UIS EMPLOYMENT R A T I O SCALE R A T I O S CA L E M I L L I O N S OF P ERS O N S M I L L I O N S OF P ERS O N S SEA SO N A LLY ADJUSTED SOURCE t U .S.D EPARTM EN T OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PER IOPS INOICATEO. LATEST OATA PLOTTEO: A P R IL PRELIM IN ARY PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C IV I L I A N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED» A PR IL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 CONSUMER PRICE M O f X t S C à g j U A i U ADJUSTED ♦ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 10-78 11*4 11-78 9 .7 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5—79 6-79 1967*100 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 200.7 8 .1 202.0 12-78 9 .6 8 .7 9 .3 1—79 10.1 9 .7 10.5 203 11.8 2-79 1 0 .9 10.8 11.8 13 .0 14.3 3-79 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 12.2 13.2 13.9 1 3 .5 4-79 1 1 .6 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.5 13.1 12 .7 12.6 \12.6 207.7 209.9 212.0 5-79 11.7 11.7 12.3 1 3 .0 13.3 12.9 6-79 11.9 12.0 12.5 1 3.1 13.3 13.1 1 3 .0 13.1 13.7 ^ - V U . 2 % 7-79 12.1 12.1 12.7 13.1 1 3.4 13.2 13.1 1 3 .3 13.6 13.5 8-79 12.1 1 2 .2 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.1 13.0 13.1 13^ 13.1 12.8 214.1 216.4 218.7 220.9 9-79 12.3 1 2.4 12.8 13.2 13.4 1 3 .3 1 3.3 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.6 14.5 10-79 12.3 1 2 .4 12.8 13.2 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.5 12.5 11-79 12*4 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.3 12.7 12-79 1 2 .6 1 2 .7 1 3 .0 1 3 .4 13.5 1 3 .4 1 3 .4 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 13.7 14.4 15.8 1-80 13.0 13.1 1 3 .4 13 .8 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.9 1 5 .7 1 7 .2 18 .6 1 7 .3 18.1 2 23.4 225.6 12.9 227.9 230.7 13.2 1 3 .4 13.7 1 4 .0 14.2 1 4.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 1 4 .9 15.3 15.5 16.2 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 1 4.5 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15 .7 15.9 16.6 1 7 .5 18.1 1 7 .9 1 8 .0 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.3 1 4 .3 1 4 .4 1 4.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 1 5 15.8 1 6 .4 16.6 1 5 .9 1 5 .0 12 .1 ] 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 * 2-80 © 234.0 3-80 i a 205.4 a 1 7 .7 237.2 N . 240.5 242.8 IN IT IA L MONTH ♦CPI-N FOR URBAN MACE EARNERS ANO CLERICAL WORKERS PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 23» 1980 PRODUCER PR IC E INDEX» FIN ISH ED GOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ------------------------- COMPOUNDED 'ANNUAL KATES OF CHANGE----------------------- 9-7* 10-78 il- 7 è 12-78 é .è il- T é 8 .8 A. 8 12-78 i6 .i 11.0 1-74 " " "5-7* 1-79 ■"2=49 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 T - 7 * “ ' 9-79 16-79 11-79 H - 7 S ” 1—80 2-80 3-80 199.2 10-78 "2-74 ' 1967 « 106 IN IT IA L MONTH T E M lN A L MONTH 200 . 6 202.7 13.3 14.6 r \ 15.8 205.2 11.6 12.6 12.6 12.9 “ T 4 \ 5 ~ 1 4 .7 13.7 12. i Ì2 .7 12.9 1 3 .7 13.9 207.4 204.4 12.2 4-*9 il.è 1 2 .3 1 3 .0 12.0 “ i i . r 5-79 1 1 .0 11.4 11.6 1 1 .5 ro .4 " T - 7 *~ 16.7 « .♦ 11.2 16. t 7-7* t l.t 11.3 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 *".4 ~ 1 6.7 1 6 . 1 \ 1 0 .2 ^ 711.1 212.1 8 .6 5# o 779“ o# 7 7 .6 9 .6 " 9# 4 11.2 \ - v J3 .4 % 15.6 213.4 215.9 218 . 3 8-79 11.4 11.6 1 1 .9 1 1 .8 11.2 16.8 16.5 16.4 12.2 14.6 9-79 12.0 12.3 Ì2 .6 1 2 .6 12.1 11.9 11 .9 12.2 1 Ì. 9 14.1 " I M Ì9 .1 221.5 10—79 u v r 1 2 .4 12. i T277 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.5 13.9 1 5 . 5 1 5 7 T T6'.4 1 ¿2 5 .9 IT-7 4 1 2 .4 " 12.6 13 .0 TT& 12 .6 12.5 12.6 12.4 14.1 ~ T 5 .5 15.6 T 4 .I 1 .6 12-7* 12.2 12.5 12.8 12 .7 12.4 T 2 .5 1 2 .T ” 12 .6 15.6 " 1 4 .7 14.6 T 7 .7 1 .3 13.0 16.5 1-80 1 2 .7 12.9 13.2 13 .2 13.6 13.0 13 .6 13.3 14.3 T 5 . '3 15.4 T 5 .6 1 .8 15.1 14.9 19 .4 s ¿-80 13 .0 ÌT .1 13.6 1 3 .6 1T.3- 13. 5 " 1 3 .* 15 .4 l4 .è 15.8 15.4 T 4 .2 1 .4 16.1 IS . 3 14.2 3-80 1 3 .5 1 5 .6 1 3 .9 1 3 .9 13 .8 1 3 .« t 5 . r ~ 14.5 13.2 Ì6 .0 i? ;2 T 6 . 5 " 1 .6 16.5 1 6 .7 ' 18.9 1 8 .6 18.2 ' 4-80 1 2 .9 15.2 1 3 .4 1 3 .4 11.3 ÌT .2 13.3 1 3 .6 14.3 15.0 IF . 6 T 5 .1 1 .4 14.7 14.6 15.6 14.3 12.0 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11—79 12-79 1-80 2-80 14.2 " 226.6 228.5 R 231.9 235.3 19 .1 4 238.6 X 6 .2 >i 239.8 3-80 IN IT IA L MONTH R-REVISED PREPARED BY MAY 9» 1980 4 FSOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RATIO PR I C E S SCALE 1967- 100 197 2 RATIO 197 3 974 1 97 5 1 97 6 1 977 SCALE 1 96 7- 1 0 0 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 97 8 197 9 198 0 IL C P I- U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS & .C P I-1 FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS ANO C L E R IC A L WORKERS PERC ENTACES ARE ANNUAL (TATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LATEST DATA PLO TTED. IN D ICA TED . A P R IL PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . PRODUCER RATIO SCALE 1967-100 250 PRICES RATIO SCALE 1967-100 250 S E A SO N A LLY AD JU STED 973 197 4 1 97 5 1 976 PERCENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S '.ATEST DATA PLOTTED. 1977 L O U IS 1 978 1 97 9 1 98 0 IN D IC A TED . APRIL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S . LOUIS 5 PRUDUC6K P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N SUH 6RFUO O S - S E A S O N A L L Y A D JU S T E D COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAtES OF CHANGE TERMINAL IN IT IA L MONTH 196 7 * 100 HUNTH_____________________ _______________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ l6 — 79 7^79 “ 5^79 9-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2—80 3—80 2-/9 3-79 4-79 “ 5-79 6-7* 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-7« 1-79 “21378“ 10-78 22.'4' 11—78 12.6 12-78 14*6 10» 8 18.8 1-79 15.7 13.5 19.0 1 * .2 2 -7 * 16*4 14 .9 1 8 .* 14.0 18.9 3 -7 * 16.3 15.1 Id .2 16.0 17.5 4-79 rs rr 11.5 T 5 .T 11.* *.6 5.2 -4 .7 225.8 ' *-79 4.6 7.4 8.7 6.7 3.9 -0 .7 -8 .2 ' - T l . 4 223.5 ¿-79 7.1 - 5'. 3 £.4 0.7 -3 .4 —* .2 -1 1 .4 -1 1.2 221.3""" -r ^ r r - T .r 5.7 5.9 * .2 1.9 =1.2~ -5 .1 -5 .2 -1** fi4~74 ~3.4 217.5 22(5.7 226.7 222.8 8.4 226.2 8-79 8*3 7 .0 7 .4 6. 1 4 .3 2 .1 -0 .5 0.5 4 .9 14.0 19.9 9-79 9# 1 7 .9 8 .4 7 .* $ .9 4 .2 2 .* 3 .8 8 .0 15.3 18.8 T 7 . T 7 .5 6 .4 5.1 3 .5 1 .8 2 .9 6 .1 ii.o 11.8 10-79 8 .3 7 .2 229.3 7.9 - 1 .0 229.1 ~ 2337V“- 11-79 9*4 8 .5 8 .9 8 .1 7 .0 “ 5 .8 4 .5 5 .9 9 .1 13.7 15.1 13.5 11.5 25.6 12-79 9 .0 8 .1 8 .5 7.6 6 .6 5.5 4 .4 5 .6 8 .3 ¿ 1 .9 12.6 10.8 8 .6 13.6 1-80 7 .7 6.8 7 .0 6. 1 5.1 4 .0 2.8 3 .7 5.8 8 .4 8.4. 6.3 3.6 5 .2 - 3 .8 -10.2 2-80 6 .9 5 .9 6 .1 5 .3 4 .3 3 .1 2 .0 2 .7 4.4 6 .6 6 .3 4.2 1.7 2 .4 - 4 .4 3-80 7 .2 6.4 6 .6 5 .8 4 .9 3 .9 3 .0 3 .7 5.3 7 .4 7 .2 5.5 3 .6 4 .6 - 0 .1 - 1 .2 4-80 4 .9 4.0 4 .0 3 .2 1.1 0 .0 0 .4 1 .6 3 .0 2 .4 0 .4 -1 .9 -2 .0 - 6 .7 -9 .1 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 223.9 1 16.1 3.1 2 3 4 .1R ~ 232.0 - 7 .9 230.9 - 5 .5 13.8 233.4 - 8 .7 -10.2 -2 9 .1 226.8 3 .7 9—79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 IN IT IA L MONTH PROOUCER P R IC E IND EX, FIN ISH ED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----------------------- COMPOUNDED ANNUAL ftAtES 0 ? CHANGE-------------------------- TERMINAL "'1 * 4 ? '» 100 IN IT IA L MONTH 9=7* 16=78 11-7* 12-7© 10-78 4 .5 11-78 7 .4 1 0.4 12-78 9 .0 11 .4 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-7* 5-7* 4-7* 7-79 *- 7 * *-79 H P 7 * 11-7* 12-7* "T -*6 3-86 192.7 194.3 12.4 196.2 1-7* 1 6 .2 12.1 1 3 .0 13. 6 2-79 10.6 12.1 1 2 .7 1 2 .9 1271 1*6.3 3-79 n>~7~ 12.0 1 2 .4 I I . 4' 11.7 11.3 4-7* 11.3 12.5 1 7 .* 13. 1 1 2 .* 13.3 260.2 202.0 15.2 204.4 5-79 11*5 12.6 1 3 .0 13.1 12.9 13.2 14.1 13.0 6-7* 11.0 l2 . 8 1 T .I 1 3 .3 13.2 13.4 14.2 13.6 14.2 7-7* 12.4 13.3 13.6 13. 8 1 3 .* 14.2 14.9 14.9 15 .8 17.3 8-79 12.4 13.2 13.5 1 3 .7 13.7 13.9 14.5 14.3 14.7 14.9 12.6 9-79 13.0 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.0 19.5 10-79 13*4 14.2 14.6 1 4 .0 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.1 19.4 19.2 11-79 13.3 14.1 1 4 .4 14 .5 14.6 14.9 1 5 .4 15.4 15.8 16.1 15.8 16.9 15.6 12.1 12-79 13 .4 1 4.0 14.3 1 4.5 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.4 16.1 ’ 15.0 12.9 13.8 \ 1-80 1 4 .4 15.0 1 5 .4 15 .6 15.8 16.1 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.7 17.7 18.8 18.6 18.4 2 1 .7 30.2 2-80 15.1 15 .0 16.2 1 6 .4 16.6 17.0 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.1 20.2 20.3 20.6 2 3 .6 2 8 .9 2 7 .5 ° «9 T «■ > 1 5 .3 16.0 1 6 .4 16*6 16.8 17.2 1 7.7 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.1 20.1 20.2 20*4 2 2 .6 2 5 .7 2 3 .4 19.5 4-80 15 .6 1 6 .2 16 .6 1 6 .9 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.3 20.1 20.2 2 0 .4 22.1 24 .3 2 2 .4 19.9 2 0 .4 ^ 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-7 8 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 266.5 208.8 16.9% T i l .4 213.7 216.9 220.1 222.2 224.6 R 229.6 234.3 237.8 241.5 IN IT IA L MONTH R-REVISED PREPAREO 8Y MAY 9, 1980 6 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST» LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION R A T I O SCALE R A T I O SCALE 1967-100 1972 SEASO N ALLY 1973 1974 1975 1976 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED» 1967-100 A D JU S T E D 1977 1978 1979 1980 IND ICATED. A P R IL PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL R E SE R V E BANK OF S T . ____ _______ - __ __________ INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION_______ _______ LO U IS ______ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL IN IT IA L MONTH 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 10-78 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 1*47 • 0-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-00 2-80 3—80 149.7 9 .3 11-70 0 .4 7 .5 12-70 0 .9 0 .7 1-7* 6 .0 4 .9 2-79 5 .6 4 .7 3 .0 150.6 151.0 l 0 *# r \ 3 .6 - 2 .3 0 .8 151.5 152.0 4 .0 3-79 6 .0 5 .4 4 .9 3 .2 6«1 4—79 2 .6 1 .5 0 .3 - 2 .0 -1.8 5-79 3 .9 3 .1 2 .4 1 .0 1.8 153.0 0 .2 150.0 -4 .6 «-16.0 1.1 - 2 .3 13.5 152.4 152.6 6-79 3 .6 2 .9 2 .3 1 .1 i.0 1.2 -1 .0 7 .* 1 .6 7-79 3 .4 2 .0 2 .2 1 .1 1.7 1 .3 - 0 .4 5 .4 1 .6 1.6 0-79 2 .2 1.5 0 .9 - 0 .2 0.1 -0 .5 -2 .2 1 .6 - 2 .1 - 3 .9 -9 .0 9-79 2 .6 2 .0 1.4 0 .5 0 .9 0 .5 -0 .8 2 .6 0 .0 -0 .5 - 1 .6 6.5 10-79 2 .2 1 .7 1 .2 0 .3 0 .6 0 .2 - 0 .9 1.9 - 0 .3 -0.0 -1 .6 2 .4 -1.6 11-79 2 .0 1.5 1.0 0 .2 0 .5 0 .1 - 0 .9 1.5 - 0 .4 -0 .0 -1 .4 1.3 -1 .2 12-79 1 .9 1.4 1.0 0 .3 0 .5 0 .2 - 0 .7 1 .4 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .9 1.2 -0.5 0 .0 0 .0 1-00 2 .0 1 .5 1.1 0 .5 0 .7 0 .4 - 0 .3 1.6 0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .3 1# 6 0 .4 1.1 2 .0 2-00 1.6 1.3 0 .9 0 .3 0.5 0 .2 - 0 .5 1.2 - 0 .1 - 0 .3 -0 .6 0 .9 -0.2 0 .2 0 .5 0 .4 - 2 .3 3-00 1 .2 0.0 0 .3 - 0 .3 -0.1 - 0 .4 -1 .1 0 .4 -0 .9 -1.1 -1 .5 -0 .3 -1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .6 -2 .3 - 5 .0 -1 .6 - 2 .0 -2 .7 -1 .5 - 2 .0 -3 .2 -3 .7 -3.1 - * .3 -4.0 - 5 .6 -7 .1 -10.3 -14.1 -20.1 1 -7 « 2 -7 « 3 -7 « 4 -7 « S-T9 ¿ -7 « 7 -7 « A—7 0 0 -7 0 lft-7 * 11—7 0 4-00 — 1-79 - 0 .0 - 0 .5 - 1 .0 - 1 .6 9 -7 tt 1 ft—7ft 1 1 —7® 1 2 -7 8 \ jr 0 .3 % 152.0 151.6 152.4 152.2 152.1 - 0 .0 ^ ^ ^ 152.2 152.6 3 .2 1 2 -7 9 l- a o - 7 .6 ) 2 -A O 151.3 P ¡Â 8 .5 P ____ PRELIM INARY PREFACED .AX. FEDERAL » F V i w f *Am n f t i . MAY 7 16» 1*00 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS T O T A LS INCOME AT SEA SO N A LLY ANNUAL RATIO SCALE RATES T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS A D JU S T E D 2.2 2. ' 2.0 I .9 1.8 1. 1.6 1.5 I. I .3 1. 1. I .0 0. 0.9 0.8 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IND ICATED. A P R IL P R ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF ST . LO U IS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE B IL L IO N S Of INITIAL MONTH--- TERMINAL MONTH ANNUAL RATES 2-74 3-74 4-7* ¿-7 * 7-79 8-74 9-79 10-74 11-79 12-74 1-80 2-80 3-8Ö r * ? 8 i. o 17101*4 1 7 8 2 6 .8 1*834.3 2-79 ÏÎ.5 3-79 13.6 4 -t9 12.5 5-79 6-79 T 2 .T 11.6 8.4 “ i r a 1*851.4 12. 7"“ 12.2 id .3 Ì3 .0 14.3 .5 10.9 9.1 10.5 9.9 5.7 11.8 10.9 10.3 ¿•7 9.7 4.0 6 #4 ^772 11.5 10.6 10.1 8.8 9.5 4.0 T«2 i t i » IT 2 7 T " 1»fcvO.7 8.0 1#0*1.6 8 .9 N 1 , W .1 9 .8 % 1 -7 9 12.2 11.6 11.2 10.2 1 1 . 1 10.9 10.1 11.6 13.9 T 9 .7 8-79 11.9 11.3 IÖ .9 i o . o 1 0 .7 10.5 9.8 10.9 12.1 9-79 11.6 11.0 1Ö.7 9.0 1 0 . 5 10.3 9.6 10-79 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.2 T 0 .8 10.7 10.2 ll.O ll-? 4 12.1 11.6 11.3 10.7 11.3 11.2 10.4 11.6 T274" li-J * 12.2 ll.i 11.6 11.Ò 11.6 11.6 11.3 12.ô l2 .t 13.4 Î2VT 11.8 11.6 11.1 1 Î . Ï 11.5 11.3 T 1 .4 12.5 13.1 1 2 .1 2-SÖ It .8 11.4 11.1 10.6 h T I ^ - - ÏÜ .7 - 11.3 11.7 12.1 r i.i 3—80 11.6 IT .lt" l l.O 10.5 10.9 10.$ 11.0 lt.4 lt .? 10.8 4-80 1Ô.9 VO.5 1 0 7 3 1Ö.I 10.3 1Ô.5 4 .6 4 .7 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 1-80 9 .8 i < r a ~ 9—78 10-78 11-78 12-78 ;i 1-79 16.8 10.0 2-79 4 .7 “ 3-79 1 ,934.Z 13.8 8.6 1Ö.4 n . 3 12.1 8.6 8#7 ll.7 12.5 10.3 11.2 13.T 13.1 1 1 . 6 12.7 14.7 13.1 14.7 B .l 12.TT- 13.8 13.4 12.9 11.3 11.T“ 12.1 urrr 10.4 8.4 5.5 1 1 .1 ' 11.5 l l. O 9.9 8 .4 7.0 8 .5 7 .9 6 .3 4 .7 47 3 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 in it ia l 12.2 1*946.5 ' 1796071' 9 .8 1,901.2 2,005.5 15.8 972 2 *028.3 2,046.5 2 *055.6 2 »069.6 0 .3 ^ 2 ,0 7 0 .I P 3-80 month PREPARED 8V FEDERAL RESERVE N A Y 19, 190 0 8 \ SANK OF ST . L O U I S RETAIL SALES R A T I O SCALE R A T I O SCALE B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1972 1973 SEASO N ALLY 1974 1975 A D JU S T E D 1976 1977 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1978 1979 1980 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PlOTTEOt MARCH, APRIL ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED DY FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF ST. LOUIS ______________ R ET A IL SALES_____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL IN IT IA L MONTH M ILLIO N S OF MONTH__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ OOLLARS 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11—79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 69,164 10-78 22 .5 11-78 17.6 13.0 12-78 17.7 15.4 17.8 l- * 9 15.2 12.9 12.8 r8. i 11.9 9 .4 8 .2 3 .7 - 0 .5 3 -t9 12.2 10.3 * .6 7 .0 6 .* 71 »293 71*244 72,645 Ü .9 4—79 9 .2 7 .2 6 *i 3.3 1.8 2 .9 -i.r 5—79 9 .6 7 .9 7 .0 $ .0 4 .3 5 .4 2 .1 12.1 6 - Ï9 à. 1 6* 4 7-79 T .3 5.7 8-79 11.1 10.0 9-79 12.7 11.9 10-79 10.2 9 .3 10.5 9 .6 *i ---y 6,4 ¿2 2 - t9 I - 49,871 71,404 71*292 3 .6 T7T 3.5 6 .3 4 .2 -5.T 4 .9 3 .1 2 .3 ¿ .9 0 .3 2 .* - 1 .4 0 .5 9 .T “ 8 .7 8 .8 10.4 9 .7 14.3 15.1 25.5 5 6 .7 11.8 11.1 11.5 13.3 13.2 17.8 19 .3 2 7 .9 44 .3 9 .0 8 .1 8.1 9 .2 8 .6 11.4 11.3 15.2 20.6 5 .è - 1 * . 9 .4 8 .6 8 .7 9 .8 9 .2 lt.8 t r . y 15.0 19.0 6.* ..72,m 6.1% “72*121 ‘ 74*871 32.9 74*444 f - 1 .9 n ;n y —^MTl 14.1 12-79 10.6 9 .8 9 .6 8 .9 9 .0 10.0 9 .6 11.8 11.8 14.5 17.6 9.4 2 .5 îà.t 12.1 1-80 12.4 11.7 11.7 11.2 11.5 12.6 12.5 14.9 15.2 18.2 21.4 15.4 11.4 22.2 2 6 .4 2-80 10.2 9 .4 9 .2 8 .6 8 .6 9 .4 9 .0 10.8 10.7 12.5 14.4 8.5 4 .2 9 .9 8 .5 \ ”7T*iJè 4 2 .6 >9*444 6 .7 -20.1 77*993 3-80 7 .9 7.1 6 .8 6 .1 5 .9 6 .4 5 .8 7 .1 6 .6 7.7 8 .7 3.1 - 1 .1 2 .1 - 0 .7 - 4 .7 - 2 2 .0 - 2 3 . 9 1 4-80 6 .7 5 .9 5 .4 4 .7 4 .5 4 .9 4 .2 5 .2 4 .6 5.4 6 .0 0.9 - 3 .0 - 0 .7 - 3 .4 - 6 .9 —1 9 .3 -1 8 .8 -1 3 .4 9-78 10-78 U - 7 8 12-78 *-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 74*2J4P 75*323E 3-80 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM INARY_______________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________ E- ESTIMATED ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ i______________________F R E P 4 R E 0 » V FED ER A L R E S ER V E BANK OF S T » L O U IS NAY *• m o 9 %ttumI V f t y f M C A T i n ^ — IV A T E K I K I M K S I K T M I CONHNMOED ANNUAL R A T E S O f CHANCE T ER M IN A L INITIAL QUARTER 2-75 3-75 3-75 5 .9 4-7 5 7 .2 1 8 .6 " 1-76 ••3 9 .5 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 163.0 186.6 X 191.5 10.5 2-7 6 ••5 9 .4 9 .8 9 .1 3-76 • •5 9 .1 9 .3 8 .7 8 .4 4 -7 6 6 .6 9 .1 9 .3 8 .9 8 .8 9 .1 1-77 8 .5 8 .9 9 .0 8 .6 8 .5 8 .5 195.7 199.7 X 204.1 7 .9 206.0 \ 2-77 8 .2 8 .5 8 .5 8 .1 7 .9 7 .7 7 .0 6 .1 ^ \ S . S % 211.1 3 -7 7 • •2 8 .5 8 .5 8 .2 8.1 8 .0 7 .6 7 .4 8 .8 215.6 4-7 7 ••0 8 .3 8 .2 7 .9 7 .7 7 .6 7 .2 7 .0 7 .4 6.1 216.6 1—7* ••3 8 .5 8 .5 8 .3 8.2 8 .1 7 .9 7 .9 8 .6 8 .4 10.8 2—7» ••2 8 .5 8 .5 8 .2 8.1 8 .1 7 .9 7 .9 8 .4 8.2 9 .3 8 .1 8 .6 8.5 9 .3 3-71 8 .3 8 .5 8 .5 8 .3 8.2 8 .2 8 .1 4-7# 8 .3 8 .5 8 .5 8 .3 8 .3 8 .3 8 .1 8 .2 8 .5 8.5 9 .1 1-79 8 .5 8 .7 8 .7 8 .6 8.5 8 .5 8 .5 8 .6 8 .9 8 .9 9 .5 2-79 8 .6 8 .7 8 .8 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 9 .0 9 .0 9 .5 3-79 8 .6 8 .8 8 .8 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 8 .7 8 .9 9 .0 4 -7 9 8 .5 8 .7 8 .7 > F"... ■ 8 .6 8 .5 8 .5 8 .5 8 .5 8 .8 8 .8 224.5 226.6 9 .2 233.9 8.5 8 .8 8 .5 236.7 9.2 9 .6 9 .8 11.2 9 .2 9 .5 9 .6 10 .2 9 .4 9.1 9 .4 9 .4 9 .1 8 .9 9 .1 9 .0 8.5 245.1 9 .3 \ ^ 250.6 9 .8 9 .1 8 .9 ^ ^ 256.0 9 .2 8 .5 8 .1 260.6 2 6 7 .3P *— 1.7A 7.TA 1.77 5-77 IJV i 9.71 a—7« -----INITIAL QUARTER----------- --- - ................ «REVISED FRON 1*75. r » w H i w a a i Y ---------- CONPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 2-75 3-75 1967 « 100 INITIAL QUARTER TERNMAL 3-75 4-75 1—76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 114.6 7 .3 113.9 4-7 5 2 .3 1-76 4 .0 2 .5 7.6^ 2-76 3 .4 2 .1 4 .4 1 .4 s 116.0 116.4 3-7 6 3 .1 2 .1 3 .6 1 .7 2.1 4-7 6 2 .8 1.9 3 .1 1 .6 1 .7 1 .4 117.0 1-77 3 .1 2 .4 3 .4 2 .3 2 .6 2 .9 2-7 7 2 .4 1 .7 2 .4 1 .4 1 .4 1 .1 1 .0 3 -7 7 2 .7 2 .2 2 .8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .2 2 .5 1 .5 5 .5 " 4 -7 7 2 .2 1 .7 2 .2 1 .5 1 .5 1 .4 1 .4 0 .3 1 .7 - 2 .0 119.0 1-78 1 .9 1 .3 1 .8 1.1 1 .0 0 .9 0 .7 - 0 .2 0 .6 - 1 .8 116.5 2-78 1 .9 1 .4 1 .8 1 .2 1 .2 1 .0 1 .0 0 .3 0 .9 - 0 .6 0 .2 2.0 N . 3-78 1 .9 1 .5 1 .9 1 .3 1 .3 1 .2 1 .2 0 .6 1.2 0 .2 0 .9 2.2 2 .4 119.6 4 -7 8 1 .8 1 .4 1 .7 1 .2 1.2 1.1 1 .1 0 .6 1.1 0 .2 0 .8 1.6 1 .3 119.9 1-79 1 .5 1.1 1 .4 0 .9 0 .6 8 .7 0 .6 8 .1 0 .5 - 0 .3 0 .0 0 .4 - 0 .1 - 1 .3 -3 .0 N . 0 .7 0 .9 0 .5 0 .4 0 .7 049 0 .4 0 .4 0 .7 0.8 0 .4 0 .4 | —7 A. 9 .7 4 \ 117.4 116.7 4 .5 2-7* 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1-00 1.1 1.0 1.0 JW ft 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0 .3 116.0 - 2 .3 \ - ^ 1 . 4 % -0 .2 -8 .2 -0 .2 1—77 119.6 119.1 o .» \ ^ 119.0 .2 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 - 0 .1 - 0 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .» - 2 .0 0.0 -0 .7 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 -2 .1 -1 .7 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .3 -1 .7 - 1 .2 -0 .8 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .5 - 1 .0 -1 .3 -0 .0 -0 .5 0 .0 4—77 1-7« 9—7a 1-7« H>.0 0.0 >-77 -»—77 v m it ia j 116.0 N 117.9 . 0 .3 ] 116.0P M u a rn «REVISED FRON 1 9 7 5 . r - P R F l IN D IA * » ------ W I > M « « V F f Ot R A L A F R I L 2 »* I f N MIN O F S I . L U U lt P R OD U C T I V I T Y , COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS* RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1 96 7 - 1 0 0 SEA SO N A LLY 1967-100 A D JU S T E D SOURCE: PER CEN T A G ES ARE ANNUAL R ATE S OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S L A T E S T DATA PL O T T E D . * U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABO R IN D IC A T E D . 1ST OUARTER P R E L IM IN A R Y R E V IS E D 1967 TO I 9 M . PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS i m i T LA BOI C O S T S » P R I V A T E M I S l i S S S E C T O I » CONPOUNOEO AN NU AL M I E S OF C H A N C E r a w IN A L h lA M T P g ___ IN IT IA L 2-75 3-75 4—75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1*47 « 100 QUARTER 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-71 >-71 4 -7 8 1-7» 2-7» 3-7» 4 -? » 3-75 - i.5 4-75 4 .7 1-76 4 .0 2-76 4*9 7 .2 5*2 7 .7 168.2 3-76 5 .2 6*9 5 .5 6 .9 1 70.7 4-76 5 .5 7 .0 6 .0 7 .1 6 .8 7*5 1-77 5 .2 6 .4 5 .5 6 .2 5 .7 5 .5 fr^ 6 .9 164.0 2 .7 165.1 173.8 3 .5 175.3 2-77 5 .6 6 .7 6 .0 6 .6 6 .4 6 .5 6 .0 8 .5 3-77 5*3 6 .2 5*5 6*0 »•7 5 .6 4 .9 5 .7 2 .9 4-77 5 .6 6 .5 5 »* 6 .4 6 .1 6 .1 5 .8 6 .6 5 .7 1-7« 6 .3 7 .1 6*6 7 .1 7*0 7 .2 7 .1 8 .0 7 .9 2-78 6 .2 6*9 6 .5 7 .0 6 .9 7 .0 6 .9 7 .6 178.9 7 .0 % \ 180.2 8 .5 183.9 18.5 12.5 7 .4 8 .* 9 .1 5.8 7 .2 8 .3 6 .6 189.4 192.1 3-78 6 .2 6 .9 6 .5 6 .9 6 .8 6 .9 6 .9 7 .4 8 .3 6.2 4-78 6 .4 7 .0 6 .7 7 .0 7 .0 7 .1 7 .0 7 .5 7 .4 8 .3 8.2 6.8 7 .3 1-7* 6 .9 7 .5 7 .3 7 .6 7 .6 7 .8 7 .8 8 .4 8 .4 9 .3 9 .5 8 .7 9 .7 11.3 K , 1 4 .6 8 .2 8 .7 8 .8 9 .6 9 .8 9 .3 10.2 1 1 .4 1 3 .2 7 .2 7 .8 7 .6 3-7* 7 .4 8 .0 7 .8 4-7* 7*4 8 .0 7 .8 2-7* 8 .0 195.2 1 • o 8 .0 ^ 205.9 211.7 11.8 ^ 1 0 . 9 % 8 .0 8 .1 8 .1 8 .2 8 .3 8 .4 8 .9 * .0 9 .7 9 .9 9.5 10.2 11.2 12.2 11.1 8 .1 8*1 8 .3 8 .4 8 .8 8 .8 9 .5 9 .6 9.2 9 .8 10.5 11.1 1 0 .0 1 0 .4 ^ ^ 9 .1 217.0 7 . 8 ,\ 221.1 2 2 6 .5 P 2-75— 3-75 ■ ^05- 1-76 2-76— 3—Z6- 4-76 1-77 2-77 - 3-77 6-77 1-18 2-18 3-78 -*-08- 1-79 1-7R— 4-79--- Q UA8TER « R E V IS E D FRO N 1 9 7 5 * fc* H E L I U M A R Y • R it A R » A P R IL 25» 11 IWHft RAWf O l IT » LOUIS c a n s s ü A T tnüAt M n n i i f î tpi ch w m t r w iiiia s COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 5 10*6 4 -7 5 1 3 .7 1 -7 6 1 4 .0 il. e 1 4 .7 2 -7 6 1 2 .3 1 0 .3 10. * 1 7 . 3 3 -7 6 1 1 .4 * .7 *♦* 7 .7 8.0 4 -7 6 l l . i * .7 * .* 8 .3 8 .9 1 —7 7 1 1 .7 1 —7 8 2 -7 1 3 -7 « 4 -7 « 1 -7 * 2 -7 * 3 -7 * 4 -7 * 1 -8 0 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 A A TC t 4 -7 * l » 5 6 4 .0 1 » 5 9 8 .0 1»653y x \ 4 -7 7 3 -7 6 *.0 r 2 -7 7 DOLLARS AU M U I 2 -7 5 3 —7 7 BILLIONS OF INITIAL QUARTER T ER M IN A L — QUARTER 1 » 6 8 3 .1 1 » 7 1 5 .8 * .7 10.6 11.0 10.1 11.0 1 2 . 5 11. * 11.0 1 1 * 3 10*6 1 1 . 5 12.6 11. * 11.1 1 1 . 4 1 0 . 9 11.6 1 2 . 5 11.6 10.8 11.1 10.6 11.1 1 1 . 7 10.6 10.0 1 0 * 3 1 0 . 7 11*2 1 1 .3 12.0 1 1 . 4 11*6 1 1 . 3 11.8 1 2 . 4 11. * 1 1 . 4 11*6 1 1 . 3 1 1 . 7 12.2 12.1 11.6 l l . t 111.6 12.0 1 2 . 5 12.0 1 1 . 5 1 1 . 7 1 1 . 5 11. * 1 2 . 3 11.2 1 1 . 4 11.1 1 1 . 4 11.8 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 11*3 11.2 1 1 . 5 11.8 11.6 11.2 1 1 . 4 11*1 1 1 * 4 1 1 . 7 1 1 .5 11.1 1 1 . 3 11.1 1 1 * 3 11.6 9 .T C 1*74 9 .T A v n 1 » 7 5 6 .1 \ 1 5 .4 1 » 8 2 0 .2 1 4 .1 12*8 1 3 .5 1 2 .5 12.1 1 2 .3 11.2 1 0 .4 8 .7 * .7 8 .5 1 1 .5 10*5 12.8 1 2 .3 1 2 .5 1 * 8 7 6 .0 \ -v U .6 % 1 » 9 3 0 .5 1 * 9 7 1 .3 8 .4 12.2 12.2 1 3 . * 12.1 11. * 11. * 12. * 2 * 0 1 1 .3 l* . 8 1 5 .3 2 » 1 0 4 .2 11.0 12.8 1 4 . 8 ^ v 12.1 12.6 10.6 1 0 .7 10.6 8.6 11.0 11.0 9 . 7 12.8 1 2 . 5 1 2 . 4 1 2 . 4 1 3 . 4 1 5 . 1 12.6 12.2 12.1 12.1 12*8 1 4 . 0 12.0 11.6 1 1 . 4 1 1 . 3 11*8 1 2 . 5 12.0 11.6 1 1 . 5 1 1 . 4 11.8 1 2 . 4 11.8 1 1 . 5 1 1 . 4 1 1 . 3 11.6 12.1 1 0 . 9 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 11.2 1 1 . 5 11.8 10.8 4 -7 4 1-77 9—77 *—77 4—77 1 -7 1 2 » 1 5 9 .6 2 » 2 3 5 .2 _.._ 2 » 2 9 2 .1 4 .7 ^ 9 . 9 % 2 » 3 2 9 .8 * .3 1 2 .0 1 0 .9 9 .9 * .7 1 1 .2 1 0 .5 2 » 3 9 6 .5 1 0 .7 9 .9 9 .8 10*8 1 0 .2 2 * 4 5 6 .9 1 0 . 0 s) 2 * 5 1 6 .1 9-711 __________________________________________________________________ INITIAL QUARTE!------------------------------------------------------------------ CROSS MAT M U A I PROfMITT IN 1*77 M M I M S COHPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL M in a is INITIAL QUARTER 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 DOLLARS 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 “ L> 4-79 3-75 10.5 4-75 6*5 2.6 1-76 7 .* 4.6 10.7 2-76 6.5 5.2 6.5 2.5 3-76 5.8 4.7 5.4 2.8 3.1 4-76 5.4 4 .4 4 .9 3 .0 3.3 1-77 5.9 5.2 5.7 4 .5 5.1 2-77 5.8 5.1 5.5 4 .5 5.0 5.7 6.8 4.8 4-77 5.5 5.0 5.3 4 .5 4.9 5.2 5*7 4.6 4.6 2.2 1-78 5.2 4.7 4 .9 4.2 4.5 4 .7 4.9 4.0 3.7 2.1 2-78 5 .4 5.0 5.2 4 .7 4.9 5.2 5.5 4.8 4.8 4.1 5.0 8.3 3-78 5.3 4 .9 5.1 4 .5 4.8 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.5 3.9 4.5 5.9 3.5 5.3 4 .* 5.1 4 .6 4.8 5.0 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.8 5.8 4.6 1»426.6 1»430.6 1*220.0 1*227.9 1*259.5 1*267.4 1*277.1 1*288.1 1*315.7 1*331.2 1*353.9 3-77 4-78 4.7 1*361.3 1»367.8 1.9 l »395.2 1»407.3 1-79 5 .0 4.7 4.8 4 .3 4.5 4 .6 4.8 4.3 4.2 3.7 4.1 4.6 3.4 3.3 1.1 2-79 4 .6 4.2 4.3 3*8 3.9 4.0 4 .0 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.0 3.2 1.9 1.4 —0 .6 3-7* 4 .5 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 .0 3.5 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.2 1*8 0.6 0.4 3 .1 ^ ^ 1 »433.3 4-7* 4 .3 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.5 2.0 1 »440.3 1-80 4.1 3.8 3.* 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.7 | 0.9 0.8 1.9 1.3 1 .7 4 9.14 1—T7 9—77 « —77 1—7* 9 .7 t 1-7* 9 .7 * *-7 « l.f K I 1»422.3 -2*3 X ^ O . 9 % 0.6 \ 1»442.6 ir t t _________________________________________________________________- -INITIAL QUA8TF8--------------------------— ------------- — ------------------------------------ ******** I V MAY 20* 12 1980 ««nMâl AANU ng ST. IOUIS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT RATI O SCALE QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES R AT I O S CAL E T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS 2 . 6 .5 .4 .3 . 2 . 0 .9 . 8 .7 . 6 .5 . 8 .7 . 6 .5 .4 .3 I.I I . 0 0 .9 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1ST OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS 13 GENERAL PR ICE INDEX* RATI O SCALE RATIO SCALE 1972-100 180 175 170 y * +M Ai / / 165 1972-100 1 80 ? m . i i - 1 75 1 70 1 65 Â yK------- 160 160 155 1 55 / 150 y 1 50 145 1 45 / ¿ S I 40 1 40 135 1 35 130 130 125 1 25 + 1t 'ô z / j r 120 1 20 15 10 105 100 95 90 85 1 15 / y TZ / y +3.6X / 1 10 1 05 / & $ S $ t 100 $ \ £ i 1 S i t 1972 «A S USED 1973 IN NATIONAL k % § t t 1974 90 s t 1975 1976 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1977 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P ERIO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 95 t 1978 U .S . 1979 85 1980 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IND ICATED. 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS IM P L IC IT PMICE DEFLATOR FOB CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL IN IT IA L QUARTER 1972 « 100 QUARTFR---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 3-75 7 .3 128.19 P£FPA*EQ..ay FFflf B AI B F S F B WF RANK flF ST . 1ÛU I-SMAV 2 0 9 1980 14 - P E R SO N A! C O N S U M P T I O N E I P E R O I T U R E S 1 11 C U R R E N T C O MPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTE^ ----- -----------------------------------ft I I t IONS.. JOE — OOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2<-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 * r» l (M 2-75 DOLLAR S 3-79 4-79 994.0 3-75 12*6 4-75 12* 1 11.6 1-76 12.5 12.4 13*2 2-76 11.3 10.8 10.5 1 ,0 2 1 .6 1 «053.8 1 ,0 7 3 .7 1 ,1 0 0 .5 11.1 10.7 1 0 .4 9 .1 10.4 4-76 11*2 11.0 10*8 1 0 .0 11.2 12 .0 1-77 11.6 11.4 1 1 .* 10.9 12.0 12 .9 13.8 2-77 11.1 10 .9 10.7 10.2 10.9 11.1 10.6 3-77 11 .0 10.8 10.7 10.3 10.8 10.9 10.6 9 .0 10.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.7 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.5 12.0 13.4 1-78 11 .0 10.9 10.8 10.5 10.9 11 .0 10.8 10.1 11.0 11.2 9 .0 * 3-76 h» r* i 7 .8 1 ,1 3 2 .0 1 ,1 6 9 .1 1 ,1 9 0 .5 7 .5 1 ,2 2 0 .6 1 ,2 5 9 .7 1 ,2 8 7 .2 1 ,3 3 1 .2 2-78 11*3 11.2 11.2 10 .9 11.3 11 .5 11 .4 10.9 11.8 12.3 11.7 14.4 3-78 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.1 11*8 12.2 11.8 13.2 11.9 4-78 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.4 13.5 13.1 14.2 1 ,3 6 9 .3 1 ,4 1 5 .4 1 ,4 5 4 .2 1-79 11*6 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.5 12.1 12.4 12.2 13.0 12.5 12.8 1 1 .4 2-79 11.2 11*1 11.1 10 .9 11.2 1 1.3 11.2 10 .9 11.3 11.5 11.1 11.6 10.9 10.5 8 .7 6 .1 3-79 11 .4 11*4 11.3 11 .2 1 1 .5 11.6 11.5 1 1 .3 11.8 11.9 11.7 12.1 11.7 11.6 1 0 .8 10.5 1 5 .1 4-79 11.6 11.5 11.5 11 .4 11.7 11.8 11.8 1 1.6 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.4 12.1 12 .2 1 1 .7 11.7 1 4 .7 14 .3 1-80 11.7 1 1.6 11.6 11.5 11.8 1 1.9 11.8 1 1.7 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.5 12.2 12.3 1 1 .9 12 .0 1 4 .0 1 3 .5 1 2 .8 Aw?* 4 .7 4 1.74 Î-7A ■*—74 4*7K 1-77 7-77 A—77 4.77 1-7 A 7-7A 1.7A A .7 A 1.7 0 9-1« 1 *7 « 4 .7 0 î|(fT tll 1 ,4 7 5 .9 1 ,5 2 8 .6 1 ,5 8 0 .4 1,6 2 8*7 flMiBTCB PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 2-75 3-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 779.7 5 .0 5 .5 - 6 .0 791.1 807 .3 1-76 6 .5 7 .2 8 .4 2-76 5 .8 6 .0 6 .0 3 .6 3-76 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 4 .2 4-76 5 .7 5.8 5 .7 4 .8 5 .4 6 .2 1-77 5 .7 5 .9 5 .8 5 .2 5 .7 6 .2 6 .3 2-77 5 .2 5.3 5 .2 4 .5 4 .7 4 .7 4 .0 1.8 3-77 5 .2 5.2 5*1 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 4 .4 3 .4 5.1 «g 4-75 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .1 5 .4 5 .5 5 .3 5 .0 6 .6 8.2 1-78 5 .1 5.1 5 .0 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .4 3 .9 4 .7 4 .4 0.8 4 .9 4 .8 3.2 * ATLLTQMS OF OOLLARS AMÉKIAI BAT tC IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL hilA BT M 814.5 824 .0 4 .7 83 6 .4 849.2 853.1 863.7 880.9 882.7 894.8 5.6 2-78 5 .1 5.1 5 .1 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 4 .6 4 .3 3-78 5 .1 5.1 5 .0 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 4 .6 4 .4 4 .9 4«8 3 .7 5.2 4 .8 4-78 5 .2 5.2 5 .2 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 4 .9 4 .7 5 .2 5.2 4 .5 5.7 5 .8 6 .8 1-79 4 .9 4 .9 4 .8 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 3 .7 4 .4 4 .0 3 .7 0 .7 2-79 4 .4 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 .4 3 .6 3.4 2.6 2.9 2 .3 1 .4 -1 .1 - 2 .9 3-79 4 .4 4 .4 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .8 3 .5 3 .7 3.5 2 .9 3.2 2 .8 2 .3 0 .8 0 .9 4 .9 4 .4 4 .4 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .8 3 .6 3 .8 3.6 3 .0 3 .4 3 .0 2 .7 1 .6 2 .0 4 .5 4 .2 1 .5 3 .1 2 .2 0 .3 1 -7 « *.?<» *-7 * 4 -7 « 4-79 1-80 4 .2 4.1 905 .3 920.3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 3 .3 3 .4 3.3 2 .7 3.0 2 .6 2 .2 1 .4 4*7« | -7 A 7 -7 4 A—7 4 4 .7 4 1 -7 7 7-77 ^ -7 7 4 -7 7 1—78 ?-7A 4-7ft 4 -7 R 921.8 915~.0 9 25.9 9 3 5 .4 9 3 6 .0 - IN IT IA L lQUARlEfL PREPARED ftY FFHFftAI MAY 20« 15 1980 B f V U t f É A â M f it m ilK GROSS TERMINAL QUARTER . 2-75 P R I V A T E On M F S T I C Im v p s t m p m t i m r t n u f - M C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E dollar* BI LIIONS OF _ DOLLARS ANNUAI R A T E S INITIAL QUARTER 3-75 4— 75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 9 4*1 ¿ 0 6 .8 4-75 35.4 -5.5 1-76 4 6 .7 2 7 .5 7 2 .0 2-76 38.1 2 3 .2 4 0 .7 15 .2 3-76 3 1 .2 1 9 .0 2 8 .4 1 1 .0 7 .0 4-76 2 7 .0 1 6 .6 2 3 .0 9 .9 7 .4 7 .9 1-77 30 .8 2 2 .5 2 9 .0 2 0 .1 2 1 .8 2 9 .9 56.5 2-77 3 0 .9 2 3 .7 2 9 .4 2 2 .2 2 4 .0 3 0 .3 43.2 3 1 .0 3—77 2 9 .9 2 3 .6 2 8 .4 2 2 .3 2 3 .7 2 8 .3 36 .0 2 6 .8 2 0 3 .9 233.5 246.0 250 .7 280.4 22.6 4-77 2 6 .8 2 0 .9 2 4 .7 19.1 19 .7 2 2 .5 2 6 .4 17.7 11.6 1.5 1-78 25 .5 2 0 .1 2 3 .4 1 8 .3 18.8 2 0 .9 2 3 .7 16 .6 12.2 7 .3 13.4 2-78 2 6 .2 2 1 .4 2 4 .5 2 0 .1 2 0 .7 22 .8 25.5 20.0 17.4 15.7 23 .6 34.7 316.9 3 *7 .0 3-78 2 4 .4 1 9 .9 2 2 .5 1 8 .4 18.8 2 0 .3 22.2 17.3 14.7 12.8 16.9 18.7 4 .5 4-78 2 3 .9 1 9 .7 2 2 .0 1 8 .3 18.6 2 0 .0 2 1 .6 17.3 15.1 13.7 16 .9 10.1 10.6 17.1 1-79 2 2 .4 1 8 .4 2 0 .5 1 7 .0 17.1 18.2 19 .4 15.5 13.4 11.9 14.1 14.3 8.2 10.1 3 .6 2-79 2 2 .6 1 8 .9 2 0 .8 1 7 .6 17.8 1 8 .8 2 0 .0 16.5 14.8 13.7 15.9 16.4 12.2 14.9 13.9 25.2 370.5 373.8 395.4 3-79 2 0 .9 1 7 .4 19.1 1 6 .0 16.0 16.8 17.7 14.4 12.7 11.5 13.0 12.9 9 .0 10.1 7 .9 10.1 - 3 .1 4-79 1 9 .3 1 5 .9 1 7 .4 1 4 .4 14.4 15.0 15.6 12.5 10.7 9 .5 10.5 10.1 6 .5 6 .9 4 .5 4 .8 - 4 .1 -5 .1 1-80 1 8 .0 1 4 .7 16.1 13.2 13.1 13.6 14.0 11.0 9 .4 8.1 8 .9 8 .4 5 .0 5 .1 2 .9 2 .7 - 3 .8 - 4 .2 — 2ir7S. ■3*75 4«75 1»T6 ■.2-16. 3r76.. 1-77 ...2&ZZ- 3=I7_ _4 aZ 2 _ ..ls ia - 2i»7ft IN 171 At. QUARTER— lw79 392.3 387.2 - 3 .3 2«7.9 --3«Xa— 384.0 ------ -- CROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 2-75 3-75 M L L IQ M S OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 153.7 7 6 .8 148.9 4-75 2 4 .8 - 1 1 .9 1-76 3 8 .2 2 2 .2 6 9 .5 2-76 3 0 .4 1 7 .8 3 6 .2 9 .5 3-76 2 3 .9 1 3 .3 2 3 .3 5 .1 4-76 2 0 .2 1 1 .3 1 8 .0 4 .6 2 .2 3 .5 1-77 2 2 .8 1 5 .6 2 2 .0 1 2 .4 1 3.4 20.2 3 9 .7 19.9 29.1 19.3 2-77 2 2 .4 169.9 173.8 174.2 0 .9 16 .1 2 1 .6 1 3 .8 14.8 175.7 191.0 199.6 206.7 3-77 2 1 .5 1 6 .0 2 0 .6 1 4 .0 14.9 18.7 2 4.2 17.1 15.0 4-77 18.3 1 3 .2 16 .8 1 0 .7 10.9 1 3 .0 15.5 8 .5 3 .4 - 7 .0 1-78 1 7.8 13.1 16 .3 1 0 .9 11.1 12.9 14.9 9 .4 6 .3 2.2 12.4 2-78 1 7 .6 13 .3 16 .2 1 1 .4 11.7 13.3 15.0 10.7 8 .6 6 .6 14.1 15.8 3-78 1 5 .7 1 1 .7 14.1 9 .7 9 .7 10.8 11.9 7 .9 5 .7 3 .5 7 .3 4 .8 -5 .1 4-78 1 5 .0 1 1 .3 1 3 .4 9 .4 9 .4 10.3 11.2 7 .7 5 .9 4 .1 7.1 5.4 0 .6 6 .5 6 .6 4 .9 3 .4 5 .6 3.9 0 .2 3 .0 - 0 .4 4.1 6.1 4 .8 2 .3 4 .8 4 .0 203.0 209.0 216.8 214.0 217.4 217.2 1-79 13.9 1 0 .4 12 .3 8 .5 8 .4 9 .2 9 .9 2-79 13.6 1 0 .3 12 .0 8 .5 8 .5 9 .2 9 .7 6 .8 5 .4 3-79 1 1.8 8 .7 10 .2 6 .8 6 .6 7 .1 7 .5 4 .7 3 .2 1.8 3.1 1.7 - 1 .0 0 .1 - 2 .0 - 2 .7 - 1 2 .9 214.2 4-79 1 0 .4 7 .3 8 .7 5 .5 5.2 5 .6 5 .7 3.1 1 .6 0 .2 1.2 - 0 .4 - 2 .8 - 2 .4 - 4 .5 —5 .8 -12 .2 -1 1 .6 207.7 - 1 .6 - 3 .9 - 3 .7 - 5 .6 - 6 .9 -1 1 .6 -10 .9 - 1 0 .2 202.2 1-80 9 .2 6 .3 -2-75- .3*315 7 .5 4 .4 4 .1 4t 75 -1-76 —2.rJ6 4 .4 4 .4 3-76. 4-76 1 .9 0 .5 1-77-.2-7 7 - 0 .9 -0 .2 221.7 8 .5 3-77 -6-77 _L=za_ -2—78— 3--78. A-ia 2-78 3—79-- 4--J9------ IN IT IA L QUARTER PttPPAttPn ftv FPnfrttAi MAY 16 20, 1980 h am * op ST. i n m s TERMINAL ÛÉIABTFB OF DOLLARS AÉÉMIIAL KATES A lliu m s INITIAL QUARTER 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 9 .9 4 -7 5 10.6 1 -7 6 8 .4 7 .7 2 -7 6 7 .0 6.0 3 .4 2 .7 3 -7 6 6 .7 5 .9 4 .2 4 .2 * —7 6 7 .1 6 .5 5 .3 1 -7 7 7 .6 7 .2 6 .4 8.0 7 .5 8 .1 ~ sT 2 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 4 -7 8 3 -7 8 2 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 3 5 1 .5 1 1 .3 355*1 4 .2 357*5 5 .6 362*4 5 .7 7 .3 9 .0 370*3 7 .0 8 .5 9 .9 1 0 .9 9 .5 1 0 .9 11.8 12*8 3 8 0 .0 391*6 3 -7 7 8 .4 8.2 7 .7 8 .4 9 .5 1 0 .5 11.0 11.1 9 .4 * —7 7 8.8 8 .7 8 .4 9 .0 10.1 11.0 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 11.1 1 2 .9 400*5 412*8 1 -7 8 8.6 8 .5 8 .2 8 .7 9 .6 10.2 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 9 .6 9 .7 6.6 2 -7 8 8*6 8 .5 8 .2 8 .7 9 .5 10.0 10.2 10.0 9 .4 9 .4 7 .7 3 -7 8 8 .9 8.8 8.6 9 .0 9 .8 1 0 .3 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 10.0 1 0 .1 9*2 1 0 .5 4 -7 8 9 .1 9 .1 8 .9 9 .3 10.0 1 0 .5 1 0 .7 1 0 .7 1 0 .3 1 0 .5 9 .9 11.1 1 2 .3 12.2 1 -7 9 8 .9 8.8 8.6 9 .0 9 .6 10.0 10.1 10.0 9 .6 9 .7 9 .1 9 .7 10.0 8*9 5 .7 2 -7 9 8 .7 8.6 8 .4 8.8 9 .3 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .1 8 .5 8 .9 8 .9 7 .8 5 .7 419*4 8.8 4 2 8 .3 440*9 1 2 .3 453*8 460*1 4 6 6 .6 5 .8 3 -7 9 8.8 8 .7 8 .5 8.8 9 .3 9 .7 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .2 8 .7 9 .1 9 .1 8*4 7 .1 7 .8 10.0 4 -7 9 9 .4 9 .4 9 .3 9 .6 10.1 1 0 .5 10.6 10.6 1 0 .4 1 0 .5 1 0 .2 1 0 .7 11.0 10.8 1 0 .4 12.1 15*4 21.1 1 -6 0 9 .6 9*6 9 .5 9 .9 1 0 .4 1 0 .7 10.8 10.8 1 0 .7 10.8 10.6 11.1 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 11.1 1 2 .5 1 4 .« 1 7 .3 2 * 7 5 ___3 * 2 5 ___* a Z 5 — 1 = 2 * ___2 = 2 * ___3 - 7 * * r» 7 * ___1 - 1 7 ___2 - 7 2 ___3 = 7 7 __ * - J 7 ___1 - 7 0 ___? .- 7 8 ___ H i 3-75 3-75 3*4 4-75 3 .2 2 .9 1-76 1*6 0 .7 4-75 1-76 2-76 -2 .1 - 1 .5 - 1 .5 -0 .3 4-76 0 .3 - 0 .4 -1 .2 - l.l -0 .2 1-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 262*9 . 1, - 0 .5 - 0 .4 2-78 GOVERNMENT H T .tM S F S OF CnfffiS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS____________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE _______________________________________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S OF INITIAL QUARTER DOLLARS ▲MftttlAI l i T C t 3-77 4-79 4-77 1-77 2-77 2-79 3-79 3-76 4-76 1-79 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 2 64.7 0*5 3-77 262.7 -0*2 262 *6 0.6 0.2 - 0 .4 - 0 .1 0.8 1 .4 2 .9 1.1 0.8 0 .5 0 .9 1.8 2*5 3 .8 4*8 1.5 1.2 1.0 1 .4 2.2 2 .9 3 .9 4 .4 4 .1 1*3 1.5 1*1 1*5 2.2 2 .7 3 .4 3.5 2 .9 1.8 1.0 0*8 1.1 1 .7 2*0 2*5 2*3 1*5 0*3 -1*2 1 .3 1.2 1*0 0*8 1*1 1.6 1*9 2*2 2*1 1*4 0*5 -0*1 0 .9 1 .4 1 .5 1*2 1*5 2.0 2*3 2*6 2.6 2*1 1*6 1*6 3.0 2.0 2*2 2*5 2.5 2*1 1*7 1*7 2.6 1.5 1*4 1*3 1 .5 1 .3 1.2 1*0 1.2 1.6 1*8 2*0 1*9 1*5 1*1 0*9 1.5 264 .5 267 .6 270*3 271.5 270 .7 271.3 274 .7 5.1 3*5 1*9 1*7 0.0 276 .0 - 1 .9 274 .7 2-79 1 .0 0*9 0*7 0 .9 1.2 1 .3 1*5 1 .3 0*9 0 .4 0*2 0.5 0*4 -4*1 -2*6 -3*3 3-79 1 .0 0*9 0 .7 0 .9 1.2 1*3 1*4 1*3 0*9 0*5 0.3 0 .6 0*5 -0*6 -1*4 - 1 .2 4-79 1.3 1-80 1.4 _________________ -1 .5 0 .3 4-77 5 1 7 .4 263*8 2-76 2-77 501*2 1 3 .6 2 65.7 3-76 1-77 4 7 7 .8 ___* = 2 B ___ U 2 S __ 2 = 2 9 __ 3 = 2 9 __ * - 7 9 - __ IN IT IA L QUARTER________________________________________ ________-____ TERMINAL OilABTM 2-75 4 -7 9 342*2 3 -7 5 2 —7 7 o 1 0 c n u n m m t T M u r t a s « (tf finar» amo s m v i c f s «M rilM CMT DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1*2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1 .4 1.3 1.5 1*7 1*8 1*7 1*8 2*0 __ 3*25— **25— 1*2*— 2*26— *r7* 2 7 2 .4 1*0 273.1 1*7 1*4 1*1 1.0 1.3 1.4 0*7 0*4 1.2 3 .5 6.0 1*9 1*7 1*4 1.7 1.8 1*3 1*2 1*9 3*7 5*1 1.4 *»7ft— 1*22— 2*22— 3*22 IN IT IA L 277.1 4 .3 2 8 0 .0 *«77__ laZfl— 2*2»— 3*28— **XS— 1*29— 2*29— 3*29— *«2a QUARTER------- t R E B A R fcO-.BY B E Q C B A L NAY 20, 1990 17 B F S F B V E R A N K O F S J . I,Qui t D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L INf.QMF I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE t e r m i n a l INITIAL QUARTER 2—75 3 -7 5 3-75 1 .9 4 -7 5 5 .7 9 .6 1-76 7 .0 9 .7 4 —75 1—7 6 2-76 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 DOLLARS ANIBIAI BA T FS 4-79 I ,1 0 0 .3 9 .7 6.4 8 .6 1,170.2 7 .1 8 .4 8*0 7 .2 4 -7 6 7 .6 8 .8 8 .6 8 .2 9*2 1 0 .3 1 -7 7 7 .9 8 .9 8 .7 8 .5 9 .2 9 .8 9 .3 2 -7 7 9 .3 9 .3 9 .2 9 .9 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 2 .0 3 -7 7 9 .7 9 .7 9 .7 1 0 .3 1 0 .9 1 1 .1 1 2 .0 1 2 .1 9 .1 9 .9 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .6 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 8*1 1 ,2 2 2 . 6 1,2 5 0.1 1 ,2 8 6 .0 1.3 2 3.2 1 .3 6 1 .2 1 -7 8 9 .2 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 10*6 1 1 .0 1 1 .1 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .1 1 0 .3 2 -7 8 9 .5 1 0 .2 10*3 1 0 .3 1 0 .8 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 2 .7 3 -7 8 9 .6 1 0 .3 1 0 .4 1 0 .4 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 11*5 1 2 .0 1 1 .4 1,3 9 5.0 1,4 3 7.3 1 ,4 7 6 .5 4 -7 8 9 .9 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .2 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 12*6 1 2 .5 1 3 .7 1 -7 9 1 0 .1 1 0 .7 1 0 .8 1 0 .9 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .8 1 2 .1 1 2 .2 1 2 .2 1 2 .2 1 2 .7 1 2 .7 1 3 .4 1 3 .0 2 -7 9 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .0 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 1 1 .5 1 0 .3 3 -7 9 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .3 1 1 .5 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 1 0 .2 8 .8 4 -7 9 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 1 1 .3 1 1 .1 1 1 .0 1 0 .4 9 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .9 1 -8 0 1 0 .2 1 0 .7 1 0 .7 1 0 .8 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 1 0 .9 1 0 .4 1 1 .4 1 2 .1 ■2 - 7 5 — 3 - 7 5 — 4 - 2 5 -----1 * 2 6 ___2 * 2 6 ___3 = 2 6 __ 4 = 2 6 ___1 - 7 7 __ 2 = 2 2 ___3 - 2 2 1 ,5 2 4 .8 1 ,5 7 2.2 7 .7 1 ,6 0 1 .7 1 ,6 4 0 .0 1,6 8 3.1 1 3 .2 1 ,736.2 A r H ___1 = 2 8 ___2 - 1 8 ________________________________________________________________ __________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ____________ D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A ! IN f.flM F I N 1 9 2 2 D O L L A R S C O M PO U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 4 -7 5 -0 .5 4 .0 1 -7 6 1 .4 4 .7 5 .3 3 .8 3 .7 2.1 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 B IL L D O LLA R S im a m b a ie s QUARTER 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 5 1 -7 7 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.2 2 -7 7 2 .7 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 871.7 8 8 3 .1 8 8 7 .7 3 .5 3 .3 2 .3 2.6 893 .4 3 .7 3 .6 3 .1 3 .5 9 0 3 .3 3 .4 3 .3 2.8 3 .1 2.1 3 .8 3 .8 3 .5 3 .8 4 .1 9 0 8 .0 6.1 9 2 1 .5 3 -7 7 3 .1 4 .2 4*2 4 .0 4 .4 4 .9 6 .3 6.6 4 -7 7 ) 1 -7 8 3 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .8 5 .4 6 .5 6 .7 6.8 3 .3 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 5 .4 5 .1 4 .4 2.0 2 -7 8 3 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .6 5 .1 4 .8 4 .3 3 .0 4 .0 3 -7 8 3 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .9 4 .7 4 .3 3 .4 4 .1 4 .2 4*3 4 .5 4 .8 5 .2 5 .0 4 .7 4 .2 4 .9 5 .3 6 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 2.1 2.8 2 .3 0 .3 9 3 6 .3 9 5 1 .8 9 5 6 .6 4 -7 8 3 .7 4 .4 4 .4 1 -7 9 3 .6 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .8 4 .6 4 .2 3 .7 2 -7 9 3 .2 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 3 .8 3 .4 2 .9 3 .0 3 .1 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .7 3 .4 3 .0 2 .5 2 .5 3#3 3 .4 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 2 .9 1 -8 0 2.8 3 .4 3 .3 3 .4 3 .2 3 .3 3 .1 1_f 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .2 2 .9 1—7T 7.77 2.8 2 .3 2 .3 2.6 2.1 2.1 ■»-77 4 .7 7 i —7» 9 6 6 .1 9 7 6 .2 1.8 2.1 1.6 2 .3 1 .9 1 .5 9 9 1 .5 0 .3 0 .5 0 .5 9 9 6 .6 9 9 3 .0 -1 .4 0.2 0.6 1.1 —0 . 1 0.1 0.6 0 . 9 9 9 3 .4 —0 . 6 9 9 6 .2 0 .6 9 9 7 .8 9—7* ----------------- I N I T IA L QUARTER------------- 60§ r a l p re p a re d a y > MAY 2 0» 1980 18 r e se rve ba nk, ng s t . l om is - ---- e n » p a t A T E P R O F I T S 1 F T F « H I H » CO M P O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERM IN A L DOC LARS IN IT IA L QUARTER O ilA fiT P B A M M IA I 2-75 3-75 1 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 113*6 5 4.5 11*8 1-76 57*9 35*8 64*9 2-76 41*8 23*7 30*1 2*7 3-76 33*7 19*0 21*5 4*2 1-79 4-78 2-79 3-79 BA T FS 4-79 9 2 .9 15*2 16*1 3*2 3*5 17*3 18*4 9 *0 11*2 14*0 28*3 2-77 26*7 17*6 18*6 11*0 13*2 15*8 23*8 19*4 93 .2 1*3 99 .2 1 03.7 17.2 18*0 11 .5 1 3 .4 1 5 .4 2 0 .5 16.8 14.2 1 5 .4 1 5 .9 10.2 11*5 12*7 15*8 11.9 8*3 13*3 13*5 8*3 9*1 9*7 11*4 7*6 3*9 107.2 2*6 107.9 -0*9 - 4 .4 2-78 2 3 .7 1 7 .7 18*4 14*1 15*6 17.1 19*9 18 .3 18.0 19*3 28*7 3-78 22*4 16*8 17*3 13*4 14*7 15*8 18*0 16*4 15*8 16*2 4-78 2 2 .7 17*6 18*1 14*6 1 5 .8 1 7 .0 19.1 17*9 17.6 18.3 21*2 22*6 1-79 2 3 .4 1 8 .6 1 9 .2 16*0 17 .3 18.5 20.6 14.6 19 .7 20.6 2-79 1 6 .7 17*0 14*0 15.0 1 5 .9 17 .4 16 .3 15 .9 16.1 1 7 .4 17*8 15*0 16*0 1 6 .9 18*4 17*4 17.2 4-79 21.2 21.6 20.0 16*0 16*3 13*6 14*4 15*1 16*4 15*3 1-80 2 0 .3 16*5 16*8 14*3 15*2 15*9 17*1 16*2 ? —7* ? —7? 7f t —'74 2—74 *-7 * 3-79 3-78 9 1 .6 2 7 .7 25*2 2-78 5*8 27*8 22*8 20*0 1-78 »0 .3 1-77 3-77 4-77 9 1 .0 4-76 4-77 3-77 78.1 4-75 1-78 2-77 1 06.7 122.4 73*2 124.6 36*4 7*4 33*2 16*8 27.1 24*6 33.1 21*9 2 9 .9 3 2 .7 18.6 23.8 13.8 16.0 10 .9 - 7 .4 17.6 19.9 24.5 16*6 19.0 1 6 .4 9 .1 28*5 1 4.9 15.0 16*7 20*0 12*9 14.1 11.0 4*6 11*2 15*9 16*0 17*6 20*7 14*7 15.9 1 3 .8 9 .5 15*8 1-77 ?-77 4— 77 4«77 1 7 ? —7ft TU 7 1-7° — A ■ IM IT I Al 132*3 A * 142*0 f 139*3 148*3 - 3 .7 9 .9 7*70 — 70 A 146*9 2 5 .6 155.51» 4—T ? f M IA B T F R ♦ NATIONAL INCONE B A S IS I 4 0 Ü < 1 a FflEEABEn. BY NAT 2 0 . 1990 BfeSFBttF BANK OF ■S T . L O U IS SOURCES OF DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Source: 1929-72: 1973 1974 1975 1976-78 1947-79 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230 The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-74, A Survey of Current Business Supplement. Survey of Current Business, July 1976. Survey of Current Business, July 1977. Survey of Current Business, July 1978. Survey of Current Business, July 1979. Survey of Current Business. January 1980 (summary tables of selected series) The Survey is available from most district offices of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 19 . . INVENTORIES COMPARED W I T H MANUFACTURING AND MONTHLY SALES* T R A DE 1 .7 2 1 .6 8 ' •6 4 ( I .6 0 1 .5 6 i . 52 I .4 8 1 . 44 1 . 40 I .3 6 * UATI OS BAS ED ■¡HADED ARE AS TE S T ON S E ASONAL LY REPRESENT DATA P L O T T E D : ADJ USTE D PERIODS MARCH PRE L SOURCE: DATA. OF 8USI NESS U. S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. MI NARY P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST 2 0 i.00 . S
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