Full text of National Economic Trends : May 1971
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. n o T i o n m Economic t r e i i d s PREPARED M O N T H 'E N D IN G : A p r il BY 3 0 , 1971 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS RELEASED: M ay 2 4 , 1971 The pace of economic activity has increased moderately since last simmer. T o tal spending on goods and services rose at a 7.3 p e r cent annual rate from the third quarter of 1970 to the first quarter of 1971 (according to revised Commerce Department estimates), compared wi t h a 4.6 per cent increase in the pr e c e d ing year (pages 8 and 9). Final sales, that is, spending other than for inventory accumulation, rose at a slightly faster rate than total spending, advancing at an 8 . 2 per cent pace from late summer to early 1971, compared with a 5.2 per cent increase in the preceding year (pages 1 0 and 1 1 ). Personal income has risen at about the same rate since last summer as in the preceding year, while the pace of retail sales has p i cked up moderately since mid-1970. P e r sonal income increased at a 6 . 6 per cent annual rate from August to April (pages 6 and 7), after rising 6.3 per cent in the preceding year. Retail sales increased at a 7.9 per cent rate in the August-toM a rch p e r i o d (pages 6 and 7), compared w i t h a 4.9 p e r cent rise in the p r eceding year. A strong surge in the early months of 1971 accounted for much of the retail sales gain. Real product increased at a 1.5 p e r cent rate from the third quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, com p a red w i t h a 0.5 per cent decline in the preceding year (pages 8 and 9). P a y roll employment and total civilian employment have changed little over the past year and a half (pages 2 and 3). The unemployment rate averaged 6 per cent of the labor force the first four months of 1971, compared wit h 5.8 per cent in the last four months of 1970. Industrial production has been increasing slowly, but is still b e l o w its 1969 peak. The output of consumer goods has risen moderately since the termination of w o r k stoppages in the auto industry last fall, but the output of business and de fense equipment has remained sluggish. Industrial p r o duction rose at a 2.9 p e r cent annual rate from February to April (pages 4 and 5), compared w i t h a 3.2 per cent decline the year preceding the auto strike. Wholesale prices of all commodities increased at a 2.9 p e r cent rate from July to April (page 14), compared w i t h a 3.8 per cent rise in the preceding year. Consumer prices increased at a 4 pe r cent rate in the July-to-April period (pages 12 and 13), after rising 5.9 per cent in the preceding year. 2 i- TOTAL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT OF CHA NGF HDEQ A ^ U A L ,_ cohphu TPBMINAI MONTH INITIAL 0- A9 10-(* <1 1 1 -A 17- 4 9 1- 70 7-70 3- 7 0 4-70 5-70 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH ¿-70 7- 7 0 3- 7 0 9 - 7 0 10 - 70 11- 70. 12- 70 L- 71 2- 71 3- 7 1 _ 78. 451 i n. AO 1 4 1 7- 49 7- 7 7. 1 78 , 543 7. 9 7 8 . 728 78,943 1- 70 7. q 3. 1 3.3 7- 7 * 1.«1 f 3 1. 7 0. 4 -7.4 3- 70 7. 0 f 1 i. 1. 7 0.7 7.9 4- 7 0 1.5 1,,] 1 ,, I 0.4 -0.1 0.« «5-70 3.3 r . ,3 0,, 1 -0.4 -1.3 -0.9 - 2 . ft -4.3 A—70 0.7 -0.3 -1 . 1 -1.0 -1.3 -3.4 -4.4 -0. I 78, 781 78,969 7 8 , 886 -1.3 78, 601 1 ->.6 -4.5 78,299 / 1 1- 69 0.6 0. ,2 ft-70 0.4 0., 1 -0., | 0-70 0.3 0.,0 -0,, 1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 c r* i c 7 8 , 574 7- 70 r\ t, I 0. A 0,, ^ 0, , 7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 1. 5 0. 4 1. 4 3.3 11- 70 0*4 ,| r. -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 r ,. « - .-i,« 0 *7 0.5 -2.1 - n •3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0,1 -1.7 “ 1*3 0. 7 -0.1 0. 1 -0.7 -n.o n .5 1. 7 0.7 1. 1 1. 5 0.9 2.4 6. 3 -0.3 - 0. 1» -0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0,1 0. 1 0.? -0*6 . - a . i 0.6 .-.4*9 -0.^ 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 -0.7 -0.3 0. 1 “ 2.9 -0.9 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.9 -0.« _1jl2_ i c ~ ?o 11 - 7 0 1 2 - 7 0 1-71 2- 71 12 - 70 0.3 o, A ,1 1-71 0.* 0, •4 n ,'t 7-71 0. 1 ^,] **-71 0.7 0.,0 4-71 0. 4 0,. 7 , , X -1 . 4 -*.5 1. 4 -1.) -0.3 -0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -1.6 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1 .4 -0.7 - 1,, 1 -0.2 4.3 -0 . 1 -0.5 -".4 -0. A -0.6 -0.0 -0.7 -0.1 -0 . 1 -0.7 0. 1 0.6 0. 2 9 - 4 9 n - ' >9 1 1- 60 1 7- A9 1- 70 ?-7j 3- 70 4-70 5- 7 0 6-70 7 - 7 ’> . 1 INITIAL A 00/ '.£ ./ Q 7 8 . 508 78*479 78 , 691 0*5 _ 9-70 78 , 5 5 0 £>RF » APF O INITIAL 0-40 10-69 4.7 11-69 7. 1 . 10-69 11-40 . 17- f 0 1-70 1.6 1.3 0 ., 0 1.6 2-70 t.9 1 ,»3 1.9 ■> , 5 7.4 3-70 7 . ** 1 , 1.9 7 7.? o.6 . 6 - 7 0 ....... 5-70 MAV «Y F FOFRAL RESERVF BAMK OF 6-7 n 7-70 lo u is THOUSANDS OF P E R S O N S 8-^0 9-70 10-70. 1 1 -7 0 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 *0*842 70,992 •6 71,135 71,256 7.11 0 ,r Q __ I . ’ 1 ,4 1.0 0 ., 0 0.1 0 to -0.4 - 1.6 -0.5 fr -1.3 * -o, 0.1 0.6 0. 7. . . 71,163 - V ,6 - 3 ,4 -5.1 - 2.2 -?i -4.6 -4.1 -3.4 - 2 .'. 70,852 70.603 - 0.0 •Os - 0.6 -1..3 - 2.0 -3,, 0 3-70 - 0.2 - 0 ., 7 -2.7 -0 f9 -1 .4 . -2 .0 ,3 - 0, - n .5 - r f4 - 1 .0 -1. 5. .. . - 7 , - 2.1 -1 .4 . - 0 ., 9 -I,?. -1 ,1 - l . r’ - 2 . -7. 7 -7.3 -l.H -7.0 - 1 .. 0 - 1.0 -1 -1 * 5 . ..- 2 . 0 - 2.6 - 2.2 - l . i -l.o - r ; ,.ft -0.7 -q ,3 - 1.1 -1.4 - 1 , - 1.8 -1.3 -1*3 1.0 3.8 - 0, - 0.2 -r ,2 -0.5 . -c .v _ - I , .0 - 1.0 -0.4 0.1 \ 3 0.5 7.7 5.0 6.1 7-71 - 0, * -o . 7 ,3 -*.5 - r .« - I , .0 “ 1.0 -0,5 - 0.0 3.1 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.5 ~1 . 0 3-71 11 - 0 ., 2 -0. 7 l? -'.4 ..-1 . 1 -0.3 - 0 . 3 .... . " a .......... 1 m "». 4 i .6 2.5 2.1 rt. l 1.2 4-71 . y.i - 0 ., 1 - 0.1 -r> . 1 - : . i -^.5 -fl..7 - 0.6 - 0.2 ? ^.3 ^ 1,3 _ 2.2 0.4 l. l 0-69 1 0 - 6« 11-49 1 7-40 l-7r >-70 3-7C 4-70 5-70 6-7 3 7-70 1-71 2-71 -3. 1 70,546 - 1.6 - >. 7 -0 .5 11-70 -0.3 0.1 ,5 - ' ,1 . 3 70,414 A TO / 0 7 /o — - 9-70 1-71 sr. MH s i t h 7-70 1 7—7 C 3- 71 7* -O ,7 10-70 78 . 698 _ 70,808 1-70 . 1.5 4-7 0 \ 3*5 70*8M 12-69 5-70 .3-70 78.47! » - n „, 5 0 ., 1 4-70 7-70 ..........,?.!h_53T . mo n t h P A Y R O L L F Mt>t OYMc \‘ T r . OMPHUNOF O A NN U A L R A T F S OF C U A N 3 E TFSmiAl MONT H 7 8 , 463 78,864 70,531 7.,r -5.9 - 1 .*> .5 - ■‘ . 3 n #A -3.7 70,182 -1.6 70,085 70.303 70,652 ^ 70,590 7 0 , 662P 1.0 \ 70*7I9P ‘ INITIAL p- M- 1C <5 - 7 n 10-70 lt-70 12-70 3-71 MONTH O Q f| f Ml NJAPV- PKfEPARFO BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK O f S T . MAY 7 t 1971 LOUIS ... 3 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE MILLIONS 1963 OF PERSONS 1964 SEASONALLY 1965 1966 MILLIONS ADJUSTED 1967 1968 1969 SOURCEs PER CENT A GES ARE ANNUAL R AT E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LA T E S T DATA PLOTTED* APRIL OF 1970 U.S.DEPARTMENT SCALE PERSONS 1971 OF LABOR INDICATED. PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L OU I S 4 INDUSTRIAL C O MP O U N D E D A NN U A L T F RM I N Al MONT H INITIAL 9-/, 9 10-69 1 1 - *9 1 ?-■fiq 10-69 - V .4 11-69 -R .3 - 1 1 ,. 2 1 ? - 6Q - f ti , 3 “ fl,, 7 , 1 1-70 -5,.9 - 6 ,. 1 .5 -4 .8 2-70 -4 , .6 -4,.4 - 2 .1 -7 . 1 3-70 - 1 ,. 2 - 2 ,■ a 4-70 - 3 • ft 1 - 7 il 2-70 3 - 7(1 4 - 70 5-70 6-70 PRODUCTION R A T E S OF C H A N G E 1957-59 MONTH 7 - 70 8- 70 9-70 10-70 11-70 2-71 = 100 3-71 173.1 171.1 0 •n 170.4 170.5 0 .7 171.1 4.3 ? -3 . 3 - l .7 - 1 .6 - 0 .5 - 1.1 -ft •1 .2 - 4 .0 -2 - 2 .9 - 2 .4 -3.5 -7 .1 -8 .1 - 3 ,7 - 2 • ft ,7 - 2 ,2 -3.0 - 5 .3 - 4 ■ fi 170.2 169.0 - 3 .9 - 3 .2 - 3 ■P - l .9 - 1 .9 - 1 .4 - 1.8 - 3 .3 - 2 .3 0.7 2.9 ft— 7 f) -3 .2 -3 .0 - 2 .0 - 2 .0 - 1 .6 - 2.0 -3 .2 - 2 .4 -0.5 0.0 Q-7n -4 .7 - 4 •ft -3 .9 -4 . 1 - 4 ■0 -4.7 -ft .1 -ft . 1 -5 .6 - 6 . 9 - 1 1 .5 -7.1 -fl .7 - 9 .1 -9.3 -11.1 - 1 5 .3 - 2 1 .0 - 2 2 .6 -7.0 - 8 .3 - H . ft -8 .7 -10.1 -1 3 .0 - 1 ft . 2 3 -ft . 2 -ft . 2 - 5 . fl -ft . 1 -ft . 11-70 -ft . 1 -ft . ? - 5 .rt -ft . 1 -ft . 2 1 c c 6—7 C 7 — 70 168.8 -1 .4 169.2 - 2 .8 168.8 165.8 -1 9 ,4 -14 .6 162.3 -5.8 161.5 i ?— 7 n -4 .4 -4 . 3 -3 .a -3 .9 - 3 . fl -4.3 - 5 .2 -5 . 1 -4.6 -5.1 - 6 .7 - 7 •ft -3.3 B.O 23.8 1-71 - 3 .6 -3 .5 - 2 .9 -3 .0 - ~>. fl -3.1 -3 -3 .6 -3.0 -3.2 - 4 .2 - 4 ,5 -0.4 8.4 16.2 7-71 - 3 ■ ft - 3 .4 - 2 .9 -3 .0 3-7 1 -3 .2 -1 .1 - ? •ft -? 4-71 -2 - 2 •n - 164.4 9. 1 165.6 - 2 .8 -3.1 -3 - 3 .5 -3.0 -3.2 - 4 .0 -4 ,2 -0.9 5.5 9.5 3.0 -2 .9 • - 2 .*5 -7 .7 -1 .3 -3 .0 -2.5 -2.6 -3 .3 ,3 -0.4 4.8 7.6 2.7 -0.4 2.2 .2 - 2 .1 -2 .3 - 2 .8 -2 . 5 -1.9 -2.0 - 2 .5 -2 .5 0.2 4.6 6.8 2.9 1.0 2.9 3.7 1 0 - i i>9 1 1 - ! ft 9 1 2 - i VO 1 - 70 2-70 3 - 70 4 - 70 5-70 6-70 7 - 70 8- 7 0 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 ?.2 ft INITIAL P- 1-71 171.4 5-70 Q— iS9 12-70 165.2 1 6 5 .5 9 1 6 6 . OP MONT H PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L MAY 1 4 . 1 9 7 1 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LQUiS 5 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE 1957-59-100 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« SCALE 1957-59-100 INDICATED. APRIL PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 6 RFTAI I SAI FS COMPOUNDED ANNIIAt RATES OF CHANGE _____ 8- 70 9- 7 0 ____________________________________MI LLI ONS OF DOLLARS 12- 70 10- 70 11- 70 !\> 1 7- 7 0 1 ____ M 1 O T FRMINAL______________ ____________________________________________________ I NI TI AI . MONTH MONTH 5- 70 0 - 6 9 10- 69 l l - A O 12- 69 8-69 6- 7 0 3- 7 0 4- 7 0 1- 7 0 -3.5 29 , 259 10- 69 5. 7 15. 9 2 9 , 620 11- 69 1. 7 4.4 -5.9 12- 69 0.7 2.2 -4.0 -2.1 -0.7 2. 0 6.3 9- 6 9 1- 70 1. 8 3. 2 29, 471 29 , 419 29 , 570 29 , 980 ? - 70 4.4 6.0 ■*. 7 7. 1 12. 0 18. 0 3- 70 ?.7 3.7 1. 5 3.4 5. 3 4.8 -6.9 4- 7 0 6. 1 7.6 6. 1 8.9 11. 8 13. 7 11. 7 29, 801 30 , 536 34.0 f 30 , 502 5- 70 5.3 6. A 5. 2 7. 1 9. 1 9.8 7. 1 6- 7 0 A.8 5. 8 4.6 6.2 T.6 7. 9 5.5 10 . 0 -0.4 7- 70 5.? 6. 1 5. 0 6.5 7. 8 8.0 6. 1 9.6 2. 6 4.5 0.6 ^v. 30 , 518 3 0 , 729 . . r \ 8- 70 A.9 5.7 4.7 6.0 7.0 7. 1 5. 4 8. 1 2.4 3.7 5. 3 2.0 9- 70 A.8 5.6 4.7 5.8 6.7 6.7 5. 2 7.4 2. 8 3.8 4.9 3. 1 10- 7 0 3. 5 4.0 3.1 3. 9 4. 6 4.4 2. 8 4. 3 -0.0 0.3 0. 2 -2.5 2. 5 1. 0 2. 1 - 1 .8 -1.9 -2.4 -5.0 -7.2 -12.5 3.6 2.2 3. 3 C. O 0. 2 0. 1 -1.5 -2.4 -4.4 0.1 13. 9 5. 3 5. 2 4. 1 5.3 2. 5 3. 0 3. 3 2.« 2. 5 2. 1 7.6 19. 1 5. 3 6. 4 6.4 5. 4 6.6 4.2 4.9 5. * 5. 0 5.5 5. 7 11 . 0 19. 0 23. 0 21 , f t \ 6. 8 7.4 7.5 6. 8 8.0 5.0 6.6 7. 3 7.2 7. 0 8.6 13. 5 20. 9 23 . 4 22 . 8 24.0 1 f 1- 69 12 - 6 0 1- 70 2- 7 0 3-70 4-70 5- 70 6-70 7- 70 8-70 9- 70 10 - 70 11- 70 Î 2 - 7 0 1- 71 7- 71 1. 8 3.5 ? •6 1-71 A. 2 4.7 4.r> 4.7 5. 1 5.6 6.0 6.6 6.0 8-69 Q- 69 10- 69 30 , 208 2.6 2.8 3- 71 30,534 -4.7 -12.8 2. 9 2. 3 3.0 2- 71 30,885 3. 8 1 1- 70 12- 7 0 r, . ^ 30 , 781 •r 09/ s jo .y/o 4. 1 INITIAL _____30, 537 24. 5 31 , 100 3 1, 61 IP 3 2 , 1 83P MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE PREPARED BY FÉDERÀL RESERVE BANK 0É S T . WAY 10, 1971 BI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L MONTH T ERMI NAL MONTH 9 - 6 9 10- 69 11- 69 1 9 1- 70 2-70 3-70 4-73 5-70 6-70 7-70 8- 7 0 9 - 7 0 10- 70 1 1 - 70 1 2 - 70 1- 71 2- 7 1 3- 7 1 7 6 6. 7 10- 69 5. 8 1 1- 69 6.0 6.3 12- 69 6.0 6.1 5.9 1- 70 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 2—70 5. 9 5. 9 5. 8 5. 7 5.9 3- 70 A. 5 6.7 6. 8 7.0 7.8 9.8 4- 7 0 9- 8 10. 5 11. 4 12. 8 15. 3 20.3 31 . 9 5- 70 7. 3 7. 5 7. 7 8. 1 8.7 9.6 9.6 -9.0 A - 70 b .? 6.? 6.3 6.4 6. 5 5.5 -5.7 -2.2 7- 70 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.1 -1.3 2. 7 7.9 8- 70 6. 2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 5. 8 0. 1 3.4 6.3 4.7 4.6 7.0 6,6 8. 5 9- 7 0 6.4 6.4 770.6 6.5 77 4. 3 6.5 77 7. 8 78 1 . 5 6.6 6.a 78 7. 6 6.3 806.0 l.B 799.7 79 8. 2 80 3 . 3 806.4 811. 9 809. 9 10- 70 5. 6 5. 6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.9 1.0 3. 1 4,5 3, 3 2.6 -2.9 11- 70 5.5 5.5 5. 5 5.4 5.4 5. 3 4.8 1.4 3.3 4.4 3, 5 3. 1 0.5 4. 1 12- 70 5.7 5.7 5. 6 5. 6 5.6 5. 6 5.1 2.1 3. 8 4.9 4.3 4.2 2. 8 5.8 7.5 812.6 81 7. 5 8 2 7. 4 1- 71 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6. 1 3.6 5. 2 6.4 6. 1 6.4 5. 8 8.9 11.4 15. 5 2- 71 6. 1 6.2 6. 2 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.9 3.6 5. 2 6, 1 5.9 6.0 5.6 7.8 9.1 9.8 4.4 3- 71 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6,5 6.5 6. 2_ 4.2 5. 6 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.2 8.2 9.2 9.8 7.0 9.7 4-71 6,4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 4.4 5.7 6,5 6.4 6.6 6.3 7.9 8.7 9.0 6.9 8. 1 6.6 10- 69 11- 69 12- 69 1- 70 2-70 3- 7 0 4-70 5- 7 0 6-70 7-70 8- 70 9-70 10- 70 1 1 - 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 9- 6 9 LOUIS I NITIAL 830*4 836. 8P 841. 3P MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST * LOUIS May 13, 19 71 *. RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS RATIO OF 1963 DOLLARS 1964 SE ASONAL L Y ADJ U S T E D 1965 1966 1967 BILLIONS 1968 1969 SO U RCE« U . S . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR P E R IQ O S LA TEST DATA PLOTTED: 1970 OF 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . MARCH P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RE SE RV E BANK OF ST . PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS MONTHLY DOLLARS L O U IS INCOME T OT AL S AT ANNUAL RAT E S SE ASONAL L Y A DJ U S T E D RATIO TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 SOURCEi PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST OATA PLOTTED« A P R IL U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E !). P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . L O U IS 8 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE________ miLLNAL. QUARTE P — _____ — 2 .- 64 INITIAL 3- 6 6 1-66 7.Q 4- 6 6 7.5 -.-L=feZ.-— 4-66 2-67 4- 6 7 1- 68 2-68 3- 68 4-68 1- 69 2- 6 9 3- 6 9 4- 69 1- 7 0 2-70 3-70 4 - TO 755*9 7 7 0. 7 __ 5.C 774,4 5 .1 ___ i u C _ 7 8 4. 5 ~1*A. - 5jl1____1*0.. 6.9 6.9 7. 7 k.A ___JLâJL..... T.a 4. 1 - Î 2Ü------- . J L d L — U X — 4 7.6 ______ J UÎ L . . JL*A_ 9. 4 J O »A.. * a9 _SLU_. 834 . 9 658. I J l J U A __________1 l x h ____ a*JL. 7,5.. 375, 8 1 - 6 9 ____ 77 .. 11 ____7»_6___ i T. 5 8 .3 .h 7 ^. S 3.2; 3.5 7 *6 „ U M . . iUL.. 2-6^ 2 .? S 800.9 _8 *Jfe - Î u i ____ i u X , J l z â jL . 3- 6 ? 8.1 _ 2 r i t L ___ 5 , 5 _ 1- 67 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER Jh X 8.5 I jlL , .JL lS_ e. 6 89 1. 4 _LO_ 7 »9_ 8.4 7.4 7. 4 923.7 7.3. I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . MAY 14, 1971 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT I N CONS T ANT 1958 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMI NAL QUARTER 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1- 68 2-68 3- 68 4-63 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1- 7 0 2-70 rat £S 4-70 660.2 66 8 . 1 4-66 4.0 1-67 2.4 1.9 2-6 7 2.5 2.3 1.1 3.C 3-67 ?.o 2. 8 (># ? 3". 7 4.4 4-67 2.9 2.9 2.3 3.4 3.6 2.3 1-6 8 3.3 3.3 3.0 <►. 0 4.4 4.3 5.9 2-68 3.8 3.9 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.2 6.5 7.0 3.8 3,q 3.* 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.6 4.1 666.6 -3.9 671.6 678.9 683.6 693.5 705.4 71 2 . 6 71 7 . 5 4-68 3.7 3. F 3.6 4.3 A .5 4.5 5.C 4.6 3.5 2.8 1-69 3.6 3.6 3.5 4. 1 4.2 4.2 4.5 4. 1 3.2 2.7 2.6 2-69 3.5 3.5 3. 4 3.9 4.C 3.9 4.1 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 3-69 3.4 3.4 3.3 3. a 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 4-69 3.1 3.1 3.G 3.3 3.3 3.2 3. 3 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 -0.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -1.9 - 2 . 9 V\ J ^ 0 - 2 / i 2.5 2.5 2.5 729.2 7 2 3. 8 2.4 2. 4 2.0 1.4 l.u 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -1 .1 -1.2 0.6 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.4 1 .0 0 .9 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 1.4 -0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 -L.3 -3.8 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 2.1 .... 2. 1 1.9 ¿.1 2.0 1.8 1,8 1*4 0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.1 1 - 71 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 1. 8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 2-66 3-66 ■♦-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 3—68 4-68 1-69 2-69 73 0. 9 \ 2.5 2.5 2.6 3-7 0 P 2.6 ?.6 7.3 2-70 2.7 2. 2 ?.4 2.5 726. 1 ?,6 2.8 2.7 7 2 2. 1 2.6 2.8 2.7 1-70 3-70 3.2 4.9 3-68 B I L L I ONS OF DOLLARS QUARTER An n u a l 2-66 3-66 LOUI S DOLLARS INITIAL I .2 | 3-69 72 4 . 9 VV ^ 72 7 . 4 \ 720. 3 7. 1 | 73 2. 7 4-70 QUAK TER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T , LOUIS u , 1071 mav 9 DEMAND RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS PRODUCTION TOTALS AT QUARTERLY OF 1963 AND DOLLARS 1964 SEASONALLY 1965 U.GNP IN CURRENT D OL L A R S . ILGNP IN 1966 ANNUAL ADJUSTED 1967 RATIO RATES 1968 SOURCEt TRILLIONS 1969 U.S. 1970 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1958 D O L L A R S . PER CENT A GES ARE ANNUAL RATES L A T E S T DATA PLOTTED: OF CHANGE FO R P E R I O D S INDICATED. 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S 10 F I N A L SALES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _____________________________________________________________________________ C O MP O U N D E D A NN UA L R A T E S OF C HA NG E ______________________________________________________________________________ b il l io n s T E R M I N A L ____________________ ___ ____________________________________________________ I N I T I A L of Q U A R T E R _______________________________________ _ _ ___________ ______________________ D O L L A R S ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 3-69 2-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 744.0 1-66 9.6 4-66 6.6 3.7 1-67 7.0 5.7 2-67 7.3 6.5 7.9 8.2 3-67 7.1 6. 5 7.4 7.3 750.8 ' 764.8 780.0 6.4 792.2 8 05.9 4-67 7.1 6.6 7.3 7.2 6.8 7.1 1-68 8.0 7.8 8.6 8.8 9.0 10.4 13.8 2-68 8.0 7.7 8.4 8.6 8.7 9.5 10.7 7.7 8.8 8.9 9.5 10.3 8.7 i n/ \TQ .I/0 8 32.3 847.8 \ 867.6 3-63 8.2 8.0 8.6 4-68 8.0 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.5 8. 1 8.3 6.,S 1-69 8.1 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 8.2 8.3 7.7 8.5 900.2 2-69 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.9 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.8 915.9 3-69 7.9 7.8 8. 1 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.6 7.8 7.8 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.9 4-69 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.0 8.0 8. 1 8.3 7.5 7.5 7.0 7. 1 6.6 6.3 5.8 944« 5 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.2 5.8 5 . ^ 957.9 882.1 9 3 1 ^ 2 ___ ] 1-70 7.6 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.3 2-70 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.3 5. 1 V 4.3 3-70 7.3 7.1 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 2 . 6 ^ n^ 6.6 6.4 6.3 6. 2 6.3 6.4 7.1 8.2 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 I 4-70 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.2 5.9 1-7! 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.0 6.9 6.7 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 3-68 INITIAL 2 - 7CT TERMINAL QUARTER 3-66 4-*6 1- 6 7 ^-67 3-67 4-67 1-63 14. 1 J 1 1,019.3 ' 3 - 7 0 ” 4^70 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES" iQ U A R T E R 4 — 68 3-63 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 4-70 3-70 649. 1 3-66 6.1 4-66 3. 1 0.2 1-67 3.7 2.6 5. :> 2-67 4. 3 3. 8 5.6 6 .1 649.5 657.5 667.3 v + 4 . 4 % 3-67 3 .9 3. 3 4.4 4 .0 2.0 4-6 7 3.0 1. 1 3. H 3.4 2. 1 2.3 1-68 4.5 4.3 5.1 5.1 4.3 6.2 10.3 4. 7 4.6 4.3 5 .1 6.5 2.8 2-68 2-63 9 86.3 IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 D O L L A R S ,A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E initial 2-66 980.0 'v QU A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y 1F E D E R A L M A Y 14, 1 9 7 1 FINAL SALES COMPOUNDED 968.1 \ + 6 .4 % 670-6 674.4 691*1 6 9 5 ®9 4. 3 4. 1 3-63 4.4 4.2 .3 4 .3 4.5 5.2 6.1 4. 1 5 .5 4-63 4.2 4. C 4 .T 4 .4 4. 1 4.6 5.1 3.5 3.3 705.2 2.2 709.0 4. ? 4.0 4.4 4. 1 4.5 4.9 3.6 3.9 3. 1 4.1 2-69 4. n 3.8 4.2 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.4 3.3 3.4 2. 7 3.0 1.9 3-69 3.? 3.6 3. 9 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.2 1. 3 o 4-6 9 3.6 3.4 3.6 3 .5 3.3 3.4 3.5 2 .6 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 1-70 3.3 3. 1 3. 3 3. 2 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 1. 5 0.9 0.6 0.4 -0.3 ^ \ + 2-70 3. 1 2.9 3.1 ? .9 2.7 2.7 2.3 2 .C 1 .9 1. 3 1 .2 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 3-70 2.9 2.7 2.9 > .7 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.8 1 .7 1. 2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 2.5 ? •1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.2 C .7 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0. 3 -1.0 -1.3 -3.1 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.3 1. 5 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.3 3-6 7 4-67 1-68 2-63 3-63 4-63 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 > I o 1-69 4.4 2.6 1- 7 1 2.9 2.7 2. 2.7 2.5 2-66 3-6 6 4-6n 1- 6 7 2-07 INITIAL 716.1 1 \ + 1 . 3 % 719»-« . . 72C.9 \ [ \ 1. 2 T2 3 . 0 0 . 9 % 722.4 721.9 7 2 2 13 \ ^ 717.1 731.5 QUARTER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L MAY 1 4 , 197 1 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 FINAL SALES TOTAL SPENDING LESS CHANGES IN B U SIN E SS RATIO SCALE 1963 QUARTERLY 1964 1965 1966 TOTALS AT 1967 ANNUAL L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D. RATIO RATES 1968 SOURCE: P ER C ENTA GES ARE ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHAN6E FOR P E R I O D S INVENTORIES 1969 U.S. 1970 SCALE 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 1ST OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS 1 2 C O N S U M E R PRICE 1N0EX * » ATES iOF CHANGE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL 1 1967 * 100 I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 9- 6 9 4.4 11- 69 5.5 10- 69 11- 69 12- 6 9 1- 70 2-70 3- 7 0 4-70 7- 70 6-70 5- 7 0 9-70 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 7 1 111. 6 112. 2 6.6 112. 9 12- 69 6. 3 7.2 7. 7 1- 70 5. 9 6.2 6.0 4.3 7- 70 5.9 6.3 6.2 5. 4 6. r 3- 70 6.0 6.4 6.3 5.« 6.5 * l o I 0-6*3 q_7C 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.9 7.0 7. 6 6.5 6. 5 *.3 J 1 3 . 3 ____ 113. 9 114. 5 6. 5 115. 2 115. 7 5- 70 6. 1 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.5 6- 7 0 6.2 6.4 6.3 6. 1 6.5 6.5 6. 4 5.9 6.4 7- 70 6.0 6. 1 6. 1 5.8 6. 1 6. 0 5.9 5.3 5. 3 4.2 <»-70 5.6 5.7 5. 6 5.4 5. 5 5. 3 5. 1 4.5 4.2 3. 1 2. 1 6.3^^^^ 117. 5 H 11 6. 3 . n 116. 7 116. 9 9-7 0 5. 7 5.8 5.7 5. 6 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 4.2 10- 70 5.7 5.8 5. 8 5.6 5. 7 5.6 5. 5 5. 1 5. 1 4. 7 4.9 6.3 6 . 3 ^ >Vv v ^ “I " 4 . 0 % 118. 1 11- 70 5. 6 5.7 5. 6 5.4 5.5 5. 4 5. 3 5.0 4. 9 4.6 4.7 5.6 5.2 4 .1 ^ X ^ 118. 5 S* 5, 6 5.5 5. 4 5. 1 5. 1 4. 9 5. 0 5. 8 5.6 5.2 6.2V S s X k 119. 1 5. 1 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7 4. 6 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.4 3. 9 3.6 119. 2 12- 70 5. 6 5.7 *.7 1-71 5. 3 5.4 5.3 2- 71 5.2 5. 2 5.1 4.9 5. 0 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 4. 0 4.0 4.3 3.9 3. 3 3. 1 1. 5 2. 0 3-7], 5. 1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 4. 3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.3 2. 4 3. 1 4. 1 \ 4- 71 5. 0 5. 1 5. 0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4. 6 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.5 2. 8 3.4 4.1 4.1 9- 6 9 10- 69 11- 6 9 12- 6 9 1- 70 2- 70 3-70 4-70 « -70 6- 70 7-70 8-7n 9- 7 0 10- 70 1 1 - 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 INITIAL 1.0 119. 4 119. 8 1 120. 2 MONTH NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED * PREPARED BY FEDERAL «ESERVE MAY 21* 1971 WHOLHSAtr ooTCFS - INDUSTRI AL CrV' MODITIPS * CPMpniJNOEn ANWIJAL »ATPS OF r.HANGF BANK OF S T . 1967 « I N I T I A L MONTH TTRMTNAt MONTH 9- 69 10- 69 11- 69 1 1- 70 2-_7.0_ 3- 70 4-70 5 - 7 0 _ 6- 70 7- 70 LOUTS 9-70 9- 7 0 10- 70 11 - 70 12 - 70 1-71 2- 71 100 3- 71 107. 1 10- 69 7. 0 1 1-ft«? 5. 2 *.4 107. 4 12- 69 5.A 4. 0 ......4 . 6. ..... 107. 8 1-7.0 5. ¿ 4.6 5.1 5. ) 4. 5 /, . Q «'.I 4. * 4. 6 4. 1 4. ? 4. 1 3. 4 2. 2 4. 2 4, 3 4.2 3. 7 3. 4 4. 5 3. 7 4.5 .3.4 3. 1 3. 3 ?. ? . ?*o 3.1 2.6 1 .7 2. 2 3. o ?. 3 ? •9 ?.* 1 2. 2 2 .2 2,2 7- 70 ...........3-75..... 108. 3 5,7 ..'1,5 5- 7 0 4. 5 4.? 4. ? 4 . 3 .... . 3, 0 6- 7 0 4. 2 ___3 .9 3. 9 ^1? ÍÜ o 4-7 0 4. 0 3.6 9- 7C 3. 1 3. 5 .......... 3^ 3 , 7 ... 3. 4 10 8. 7 108. 9 109. 3 4.5 [ 109. 7 ... \ 10 9. 8 110. 0 110. 2 3. 4 3.4 W 2.9 2. 4 2. 2 10- 70 4 . ? .... 3. 9 4. ^ 3 .9 3 „ 7 ...... 3.^6.. 3. 9 3.7 ..’ .5. . 4,2 4, 9 6. 1 10. 2 0 1 N . 2. 2 3. 6 3. 6 3. 5 ■>. 3 3. 2 3. 3 3. 2 3. 9 . 3, 3 3, 6 4. 1 3.7..... 3. 6 3.4 3. 3 3. 4 3. 3 3.1 3. 5 3. 7 3. 3 ?.9 3 3. 5 3. 6 3.6 3. 4 3. n 4.0 _ 3. 6 .....3.. 5 * .4 3. 7 3. 0 ..... 3. f 9- 7 0 ......3. ? 1 7- 70 1-71 3. 0 .......3. 7 .. a ^:........ 3. 9 2- 71 3. 0 3- 71 3. 9 . —3 . 7 4- 71 .......4.0. 9- 69 3. 9 .3.*«. . i . 7 .. -7.Í.0 ?*7. 3 . /S ... - 3. 5 i 110. 4 / o/ V 111. 3 5. 0 O. 0 111. 3 4. 1 4,9 2, 2 4 , 4 <VSV w 4,4 5,0 3. 1 5.0 5. 5 \ 112. 2 4.? 4. 6 3. 3 4.4 4.4 3. 3 112. 5 111. 7 1. 7 3 . 7 ... - 3 . .6 3. 5 ....3. 6 3. 5 3 .4 . 3. 7 3. 9 4, 1 4,4 3, 3 4. 1 4, 0 3. 3 1..9. 1.9 3. 7 3. ' ... 3. 7 3. 7 ’ .6 3. 9 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.0 4.3 10- 69 11- 69 1 7- 6 0 1- 7r 2- 70 3- 70 4-70 5- 70 6-70 7- 70 9-70 9-70 10-7C U-70 12-70 1-71 2- 71 3 . ft INTTÍAI. * „ v_+3.6% Mill S F A s r m i i y 112. 8 5.4^ 113. 3 3- 7 1 1HOMTH i n. msi , En '»».FPAOEU RY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 7, 1971 13 RATIO PRICES SCALE RATIO 1 9 6 7-100 130 1967-100 130 I SCALE I \ Mat. '69 * 'SJ Mvr. ja rs / ‘s s * JOHETO i r Artt. V7 125 125 *4 .0 Kr*i20.2 120 CONSUK ER 115 *6. A V s 120 1 15 110 110 + 4 .6 Z / ' 105 105 100 100 +2. * t' 95 95 120 120 115 “ r j , Oé 1 10 ....... ....... 13.3 1 10 * J . 9k 105 105 *i +1.6X 100 115 WHOL E S A L E N D U S T R 1 A L ------ 1 0 0 +C>. 6X 95 95 Mfcf. ’SS JAM. ’SS 90 i. ................ ............ _ | I t 1963 1964 1965 1966 JULY'S/ ocr. 's 9 t 1 1967 may 1L ....... . 1968 t 1969 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P ER I O D S to 1970 aM . V 7 iL i _ - . 1971 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I ND I CAT E D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED» A P R I L PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 90 14 WHOLESALT PRI CES, ________________________________ '______________________________________________C O MP O U N D E D AI L COMMODITIES ♦ A NN U A L RATES OF C H A N G E ________________________________________________________________________________ 100 c 1 TERMI NAL______________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH____________________________________________________________________1967 » MONTH 1-70 4 - 7 0 1- 71 9 - 6 9 10- A9 11- 60 17- 6* 6-70 2-70 9 - 7 0 10- 70 1 1 - 7 0 7-70 8-70 1 - 7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 5-70 10- 69 _ 107.4 1. 4 108*1 5.7 8. 1 12- 69 5.1 6.1 4.5 1- 70 6.1 7.1 6.9 9.7 1 o 11 - 69 5.9 6.6 6. 1 4.8 4.* 1- 7 0 5. 1 5.7 5. 1 5.1 3. 1 2.2 4- 70 4.5 4.7 4.1 2.7 I . I 4,1 1. 7 3.6 2. 7 1.5 l . l 2.2 6- 70 4.0 4.1 1. 5 1.1 2.2 1. 6 1. 5 2.2 2.2 7- 70 4.1 4 .4 1. 9 1.« 2.9 2.6 2. 8 1.7 4.4 1.5 1.« 2.8 1.9 1 .5 1. 3 1.6 1. 5 l . l 9-70 1. 6 1.7 1. 2 1. 1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2. 4 2.5 2.6 0.5 5 .6 10- 70 3.4 1.4 7.9 7.« 2. 1 1. 8 1 .7 2.0 7.0 1. 9 ".4 2.7 5- 7C ... 8—70 108.5 109.3 109.Î 109.9 109.9 0.0 110.1 110.3 110.9 6.7 110.5 - 4 . 2 l l l . O 0.0 l l l . O 110.9 11- 70 Ï.3 1.0 7.6 2.4 1. 8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1. 5 1. 1 0.0 1 .5 17 - 70 2. 9 7.9 7. * 2.1 1 .7 1.4 1. 3 1. 5 1.4 l . l 0.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 7.9 *>.8 2.1 2 .1 2 .1 7.3 7.1 2.3 1. 6 2 .8 2 .2 2 .9 5 .0 9 .0 1 .7 1.7 1. 5 1. 4 1. 0 2.8 2 .9 3.2 3.1 3.4 1. 0 4 .2 3 .9 4 .9 7 .0 10.1 S'? 1.7 1.4 •*.1 7.9 2.8 2. 8 1.1 1. 7 1.1 7 .9 3 .9 3 .6 4 .4 5 .8 7 .4 6 .6 2 . 1 1*6 1.6 ”» . 4 1. 1 7.9 2.8 2.9 1.1 1. 7 1.1 2.9 3.8 3.6 5.3 6.3 5.5 2.7 3.2 î ' i - AO 1 1-*»9 12-6-3 V -70 2-70 1- 70 4-70 5- 7 0 6-70 7-70 8-70 9 - 7 0 10- 70 1 1 - 7 0 1 2 - 7 0 1- 71 2-71 3- 7 1 - ....... 1 - 7 1 2- 71 1- 71 4- 71 ...... 0-69 INITIAL *------MOT S E A S O N Al l . Y - 0 . 5 0.0 - l . l 0.0 4.2 1 1 1 . 0 l . l 111.8 112.8 1 1 . 3 113.0 1 1 3. 3 MONTH A D J U S T F '-I PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUI S May 7, 1971_ . WHOLESALF PRICES - FARM PRODUCTS, AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS* _________________________________________________________________f-OMPOllNOFO ANNUAL *AT£S OF CHANGE__________________________________________________________________ TERMINAI________ ;__________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L ^ N T H ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1967 ,» 100 MONTH __________ Q- 69 10- *O 11- 60 l?-*>0 1 - 7 r> 2—70 1 - 7 0 4-70 5-70 6-7^ 7- 7 0 8- 7 0 9 - 7 0 10- 70 11 - 7 0 1 2 - 70 1- 71 2-71 1- 71______________ _ 10—6 9 0 . 0 ___________________________________________________ _______ ____ ______________________________________________________ ______________ __________________ 1-08*7 11-6 9 7.4 15. 1__________________________________________________ ;----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1 0 ± 0 _ Ifr-ftS_____ I f I , ..l l i . Q_____'>»7 1- 7 0 n.4 14. 1 n.S 7- 7 0 9.1 11 , 7 10. * ..3-.7Q_____ LL2___ 2ju5___ M 4-70 ______________ ________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________ _____ *10*£ 71, 4____________________ _______ _________________________________________________________ ________________________________________ H 2 . j _ 1 ? . «S 4.4 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 112. 8 ..Il.S ____IL L ------- LuL.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- L12* 2_ 4.9 5.3 4.0 5- 7 0 1. 5 4.0 ?.? 1. 1 - 1 . 7 ___- 5 . 6 __ - 9 . 7__ -ft . 3----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1 1 . 2 _ » 6—70 1. 7 4.7 7. 7 7.0 - 1 . 5 __ - ¿ . 9 __ Z & + 2 __ _________ L * 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- U l -tl - 4.7 4 . 4 1. 8 7- 7 0 5.7 5. 8 1.1 -7.1 - 5 . 7 - 1 1 . 1 ______________________________________________ _________________________________________________________ U 1 . JL. 1. 1________ U 2 ____ 5la-2___1?. 5___15^2----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 113f * _ ft-70 7. 5 7.9 1. 5 n.ft - 1 . 8 9- 70 1. 6 1.9 7. 0 7 . 40.1 -7.8 1. 5 0.1 - 0 . 1 —7 . 5 -0.1 -l.ft -1 .6 -*.5 1 1.7 1.8 - , ? ? . ? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 1 1 . 2 - 1 . 1______ z ± ± 2 ___ U u 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------i l 2 t £ - 10- 70 1.4 1 1 - 70 1.Ì 1. 0 --Ì.1 - 0 . 7- 7 . 7 -1.4 -4.0 -7.0 »7.1 -1.3 - 9 . 0 _____ r 't.jt-6 T. 11»*__ r.» .t ^________________________________________________109t 9 _ 17- 70 0.4 0.5 -».fr -1.7-1.0 -1.7 -4.7 -1.1 - 7.9 -4.1 -1.5 1-71 1.4 1.5 ^.5 0. 1 - 1 . 1 _____- 3 . 9 __ - 2 * 1 __ - 1 . 9 ___" ? . 7 - 1 Q . S ----- r ' t » 8 - 2 1 . 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ;------------------ U 0 t 3 _ -1.5 -7.0 -7.1 -1.1 -5.0 -11.2 -5.1 - 6 . 4 __________________________________________ 1 9 9 * 3 - - 4 . 7 ____ - 1 . 1___- 5 . Q____ Ljl5____ *LmÄ___16. 5________ _______________________ I I P » ? . 7- 71 1.7 1.4 7..S 7.1 1. 0 C.7 0.7 1. 9 ?.07.6 * . 1_______ 4 . 4 1- 71 ?.9 1.0 “>.1 7.0 O.fl 0.5 0.4 1. 6 7. 4 7 . ” 0.0 1.4 1.4 6 . 9 _______ 2jl2___L£jl2___L5jl£__ z Z a l ________________ 1 1 ? > £ - 4- 71 7.7 7 . ft 7.1 1. 8 o.* 0.4 0.1 1.?. ? . l 1. 7 -0.1 2. P 1. 1 5.5 g_V4 t o- AO U - A < i 17 -f ) 1-7*’' 7-70 1-70 — * -^.7-1.* NOT S EASONAL LY «-7 ? - 5-70 - 6 -7 0 initiai 7-70 8-70 ? . i____ Sjl2___14 . 2__ 2. &J___3 6 . 4 ________________________ 113/6-.- 9-70 7.6 11. 4_______ 9 . 7 10-7 0 1 1 -7 0 1 2 -7 0 1-71 - 1 . 6 __ - | , L ________ U V 3 2-71 1-71 MONTH A I U Ü S J E 3 _______ _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS May 7 , 1971 15 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1958-100 1963 ■AS USED SCALE 1958-100 1964 1965 IN N AT IO NA L 1966 1967 1968 INCOME AC C O U N T S SOURCE« P E R C E N T A G E S ARE ANNU AL RATE S OF CHAN GE FOR P E RI OD S L A TE ST DATA PLOTTED« 1969 U.S. 1970 1971 D E P A R T M E N T OF CO MM ER CE INDICATED. 1ST Q U AR TE R PR EP A R E D BY FEDER AL R E SE RV E BANK OF ST. LOUIS i M P L l C I T P R I C E D E F L A T O R FOR GROS S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T ____________ C O MP O U N D E D A NN UA L R A T E S OF C H A N G E _______________ INITIAL TERMINAL QUARTER ?-66 3-66 3.6 4-66 3,4 3-66 4-66 1-6 7 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 1958 * 100 QUARTER 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-70 4-70 115. 4 ^.2 3.0 ?.rt 2.7 2.4 ?. 1 3-6 7 3.2 3. 1 3.0 3.1 4.2 4-6 7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.8 1-68 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.1 4,1 4.2 4.2 3.9 4,4 4.2 3.9 4,2 4.0 4,2 4.1 4.3 4.3 116. 8 118. 0 .+ 4 .2 % 11 9. 4 12 0. 4 3.4 121. 7 ?-68 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3-68 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.3 4-6 8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.« 4.0 4.3 4. 3 4,2 4,4 4,4 4.6 4.6 .3 , 9 .. 1 . 9 4.0 A. Ì 4.4 4.4 4,3 4.5 4.5 4,7 4.7 4.9 4. 1 4. 1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.5 4. 7 4,8 5.0 5.1 5,3 5.8 4.0 2-70 116. 2 2.9 3-69 1-70 1 1 4. 5 1-4 7 1-69 4-69 3. ? 2-6 7 ?-69 3-69 F T | 4.2 12 2. 9 . + 4 7 % 124. 3 4.6 125. 7 . + 5 7 % 127. 2 129. 0 130. 5 4-69 4.1 4. 1 4.2 4, 3 4.5 4,6 4.5 4. 7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 1-70 4. ? 4.3 4.4 4,5 4.7 4,8 4,8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 4.9 5. 1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.4 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 5,2 5,0 5,1 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.1 -5^2 5.3 5.2 5.3 4.9 5. 1 5.7 5. 1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.6 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 2-7" 4,2 4,3 4.4 4.5 4. 7 4.7 4,7. 4.9 3 - ?0 4.3 4. 3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4,7 4.3 4.9 4-70 4.3 .... 4 . 4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4. a 4.8 4. 9 5,0 1-71 4.4 4.5 4.5 4,6 4,8 4,9 4.9 5,0 5,0 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 . 3-68 INITIAL 4-68 5.3' 1-69 5.7 6.6 1r \ v. X ^ 1 t e 1 3 2. 6 10/ O.I/0 13 4 . 0 135. 5 N 137. 4 139. 3 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS" I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING * RAT I OS BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED S H A D E D A R E A S R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF A S D E F I N E D BY THE N A T I O N A L B U R E A U LATEST DATA PLOTTED: MARCH AND TRADE DATA. SOURCE: U. S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUSINESS RECESSIONS OF E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H . PRELIM INARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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