Full text of National Economic Trends : March 2005
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NationalEconomicTrends March 2005 Twist and Shout, or Back to the Sixties performance. The average annualized quarterly growth rates he Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has of key variables were a lot alike during 2002:Q1 to 2004:Q4 increased the target federal funds rate at each meetas compared with the corresponding 1961:Q2 to 1964:Q4 ing since June 2004, to 2.5 percent following the period. Average nonfarm business sector productivity growth, February 2005 meeting. A puzzling aspect of recent financial for instance, was almost identical during the two periods, market developments has been that, despite the rise of 150 3.90 percent today versus 3.80 percent in the early 1960s. basis points in the Fed’s target rate, longer-term rates have Inflation rates were similar as well, with the core consumer remained roughly constant. In recent testimony, Fed Chairman price index increasing, on average, 1.80 percent during the Alan Greenspan commented extensively on this issue, current period versus 1.40 percent during the earlier era. Real eventually concluding that the market behavior “remains a output growth was robust in both periods as well, 3.50 percent 1 conundrum.” in the early 2000s versus 5.40 percent in the early 1960s. There was a time when this same behavior would not The expansion of the 1960s was one of the longest on have been considered so unusual. It occurred in the early record, lasting until December 1969, when a relatively mild 1960s, a cherished era among monetary economists and recession occurred. Inflation began to rise unexpectedly during policymakers. That era sported relatively rapid growth in the last half of the 1960s, setting the stage for the economiboth real output and productivity, low inflation rates, and cally volatile decade to follow. Whether today’s FOMC will low rates of interest, not unlike the present day. Although manage a 1960s-style expansion remains to be seen, but the many years have passed since that time, the intervening years era may be a good one to learn from given the similar levels have been associated with higher inflation—at times substanof inflation and Fed credibility. tially higher—and have been dominated by Federal Reserve efforts to move inflation lower and build credibility for con—James B. Bullard tinued low inflation. The low level of inflation and high level 1 Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual of Fed credibility characteristic of the early 1960s returned Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Before the Committee on Banking, in the early 2000s. Thus, the early 1960s may give a better Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, February 16, 2005. indication of the nature of today’s financial markets than most of the intervening years. The chart shows the evolution of short- and longerInterest Rates, Then and Now term interest rates during the 38 months following the Basis Points last month of the recession relevant to each era. The most 600 recent recession ended in November 2001, while for 10-Year Treasury Yield, 2000s the earlier era it ended in February 1961. The chart 500 shows the effective federal funds rate along with the 400 longer-term 10-year Treasury note yield. The most strik10-Year Treasury Yield, 1960s ing characteristic is that in both eras, once the federal 300 funds rate began rising following the recession, the longer-term bond yield remained anchored near 4 perEffective Federal Funds Rate, Early 1960s 200 cent. One explanation is that, in both eras, the private sector viewed movements in short-term interest rates as 100 Effective Federal Funds Rate, Early 2000s exactly those necessary to keep inflation low and steady, 0 so that longer-term inflation expectations and hence Jun 02/ Mar 04/ Nov 01/ Aug 03/ Jan 03/ Oct 04/ longer-term bond yields could remain anchored. Sep 61 Jun 63 Feb 61 Nov 62 Apr 62 Jan 64 Similarities in the interest rate environment may Months Since End of Recession, 1961 and 2001 also be attributable in part to similarities in economic T Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 27 Economy at a Glance Output and Growth Interest Rates Inflation and Prices Labor Markets Consumer Spending Investment Spending Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year. Compounded annual rate of change shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The compounded annual rate of change of x between the previous quarter t –1 and the current quarter t is: [(xt /x t – 1 )4 –1] × 100. For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 3. All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org National Economic Trends is published by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Visit the Research Division’s website at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8573. updated through 03/02/05 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 10 0.8 8 0.6 6 0.4 4 0.2 2 0.0 0 -0.2 -0.4 -2 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 15341 2002 15706 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change Percent 1.5 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 7 6 1.0 10-Year Treasury 5 0.5 4 0 0.0 3 -0.5 3-Month Treasury 2 -1.0 1 -1.5 0 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 400 6.5 300 6.0 200 100 5.5 0 -100 5.0 -200 -300 4.5 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 03/01/05 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 5 0 -5 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index 18 74 Industrial Production (left scale) 12 66 6 58 0 50 ISM (right scale) -6 42 34 -12 -18 26 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 2 1 0 -1 -2 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/01/05 National Economic Trends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 7 8 Advance Preliminary Final Annual Revision 6 Final Sales 6 5 4 4 GDP (bar) 3 2 2 0 1 0 -2 15341 2002 15706 2003 2004 16071 Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change ISM (right scale) 1.2 0.6 0 0.0 -0.6 Industrial Production (bar) (left scale) -1.2 -1.8 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 2004:1 2004:2 2004:3 2004:4 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index 1.8 2003:4 16437 Compounded annual rates of change 68 12 62 10 56 8 50 6 44 4 38 2 32 0 15341 16802 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Hours 34.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 33.75 0.25 0.00 -0.25 33.50 -0.50 -0.75 -1.00 33.25 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Real Change in Private Inventories 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 2000 dollars Manufacturing and trade 75 1.44 60 1.42 1.40 45 1.38 30 1.36 15 1.34 0 1.32 -15 1.30 -30 1.28 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual rates 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 03Q1 03Q2 03Q3 03Q4 04Q1 04Q2 04Q3 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment 04Q4 Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 2003 2004 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final Sales 2.38 5.12 6.84 3.72 3.32 2.52 4.97 3.21 Consumption 1.84 2.72 3.58 2.50 2.90 1.10 3.57 2.89 Fixed Investment 0.35 1.55 2.59 1.57 0.69 2.07 1.37 1.52 -0.01 1.10 1.50 1.07 0.42 1.21 1.27 1.40 0.36 0.44 1.09 0.50 0.27 0.86 0.09 0.12 0.04 1.40 -0.23 0.33 0.48 0.18 0.33 0.12 0.05 1.35 0.03 0.31 0.48 0.41 0.13 0.22 State and Local Imports 0.02 -0.05 0.26 -0.02 0.00 0.23 -0.20 0.10 0.29 -0.34 -0.39 -2.22 -1.46 -1.77 -0.69 -1.67 Change in Inventory Nonresidential Residential Federal Government -0.45 -1.01 0.57 0.47 1.17 0.78 -0.97 0.60 Exports -0.15 -0.15 1.02 1.55 0.70 0.70 0.59 0.24 Net Exports 0.14 -0.50 0.64 -0.66 -0.76 -1.06 -0.10 -1.43 Residual 0.09 0.05 -0.10 0.02 0.02 0.01 -0.10 -0.09 Real GDP Growth 1.93 4.11 7.41 4.19 4.49 3.30 4.00 3.81 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/02/05 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 18 15 12 9 10-Year Treasury 6 3-Month Treasury 3 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 5.25 4.75 4.25 Week Ending: 02/25/2005 3.75 3.25 2.75 Feb 2005 2.25 1.75 Feb 2004 1.25 0.75 0.25 3m 1y . 2y 5y 7y 10y Standard and Poor's 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends Percent change from year ago 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from year ago 12 10 8 6 4 GDP 2 Gross Domestic Purchases 0 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 6 Excl. Food and Energy 3 All Items 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 98 97 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 Excl. Food and Energy 5 0 PPI -5 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 12 9 Comp. per Hour 6 3 ECI 0 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/01/05 National Economic Trends NIPA Chain Price Indexes Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Compounded annual rates of change Dollars per barrel Dollars per million btu 54 5 22 50 4 20 46 42 38 Gross Domestic Purchases 3 Spot Oil (left scale) 34 2 1 0 -1 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 16437 14 12 10 26 8 22 18 6 Spot Gas (right scale) 4 Gas Futures (right scale) 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: Futures prices as of 02/28/2005. Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 16 Oil Futures (left scale) 30 14 10 GDP (bar) 18 8 8 6 6 CPI (bar) PCE (bar) 4 4 2 2 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -2 Excl. Food & Energy -2 -4 -6 -4 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15706 2003 16071 2004 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 24 15 16 16437 2005 16802 10 PPI (bar) Manufacturing (bar) 8 5 0 0 Excl. Food & Energy -8 Nonfarm -5 -16 -10 -24 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15341 2002 15706 2003 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Compounded annual rates of change 8 16071 2004 16437 8 6 6 Benefits Compensation 4 4 Wages and Salaries 2 2 0 0 14245 1999 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 02/04/05 National Economic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 8 6 4 Payroll Survey 2 Household Survey 0 -2 -4 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 See the Notes section at the end of this publication for the Feb. 7, 2003, revisions to the Household Survey, and the June 6, 2003, revisions to the Establishment Survey. Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population 15 70 Labor Force/Population (right scale) 67 12 Employment/Population (right scale) 9 64 6 61 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 3 58 0 55 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 4.50 16 3.75 14 Unemployed < 5 Weeks (left scale) 3.00 12 2.25 10 Unemployed > 15 Weeks (left scale) 1.50 8 Median (right scale) 0.75 6 0.00 4 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/24/05 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 400 50 300 0 200 100 -50 0 -100 -100 -200 -300 -150 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Change in Household Employment 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Labor Force and Population Thousands Percent change from year ago 3.0 1050 2.5 700 2.0 350 90% Confidence 1.5 0 -350 Pop. 1.0 0.5 Labor Force 0.0 -700 -0.5 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Available Labor Supply and Components 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Index Percent of labor force Percent 11 8.0 95 7.5 90 7.0 9 Available Labor Supply 85 Unemployment Rate (left scale) 6.5 6.0 8 5.5 7 5.0 6 4.5 4.0 Unemployed 5 80 90% Confidence 10 Index 75 70 65 60 55 3.5 50 3.0 4 45 Help-Wanted (right scale) 2.5 3 40 2.0 Want to Work 35 1.5 2 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 30 2000 14610 2001 14976 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 2006 16802 17167 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 8 4 0 -4 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 24 12 Durables (left scale) 16 8 8 4 Total (right scale) 0 0 -8 -4 -16 -8 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 *Data from Jan. 1992 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan. 1992 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Percent of disposable personal income 18 15 15 14 Debt Service Payments (right scale) 12 13 9 12 6 11 Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) 3 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 10 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/28/05 National Economic Trends Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 5 6 4 3 4 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 Real Consumption 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Percent change 8 1.6 6 0.8 4 0.0 2 -0.8 0 -1.6 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 16437 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change Millions of vehicles, annual rate 9 3 20 Durables (bar) (left scale) 6 19 1 3 18 0 0 17 2 Ex. Autos -1 16 -3 Total (bar) Autos and Light Trucks (right scale) -6 -2 2003 15706 2004 16071 2005 16437 16802 15706 2003 16071 15 2004 16437 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Compounded annual rates of change 120 2005 16802 30 110 20 100 10 90 0 80 70 -10 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Investment Percent of nominal GDP 24 22 Total 20 18 16 Private 14 12 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 30 24 18 Nominal 12 6 Real 0 -6 -12 -18 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment Percent change from year ago 25 20 Equipment & Software 15 10 5 Nonresidential 0 -5 -10 -15 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Real Residential Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/28/05 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 25 20 Gross Private Saving 15 10 5 Gross Govt. Saving 0 BOCA -5 -10 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Compounded annual rates of change Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 21 30 18 03 03 04 04 05 20 15 10 12 9 Equipment & Software Investment 0 6 -10 3 0 Orders -20 -3 -6 -30 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 14610 2000 14976 2001 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Real Equipment & Software Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 2005 16802 -15 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Real Residential Fixed Investment 15341 2002 2003 15706 16071 2004 16437 Housing Starts and New Home Sales Compounded annual rates of change Millions, annual rate 25 3.1 Millions, annual rate 1.48 2.9 20 2.7 15 2.5 10 5 1.40 New Home Sales (right scale) 1.32 1.24 2.3 1.16 2.1 1.08 1.9 1.00 0.92 1.7 0 Housing Starts (left scale) 1.5 -5 0.84 1.3 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 15706 0.76 2003 16071 2004 16437 2005 16802 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Billions of 2000 dollars Percent of GDP 2000 35 Total Expenditures 1800 Total 1600 30 1400 Total Receipts 1200 State & Local 25 1000 Fed. Expenditures 800 20 600 Federal 400 Fed. Receipts 200 15 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years Fiscal Years State and Local 1991 Federal Federal Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) 789.2 793.3 -4.1 1101.3 1315.0 -213.7 1055.0 1324.3 -269.3 -290.3 Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1992 845.7 845.0 0.7 1147.2 1444.6 -297.4 1091.3 1381.6 1993 886.9 886.0 0.9 1222.5 1496.0 -273.5 1154.4 1409.5 -255.1 1994 942.9 932.4 10.5 1320.8 1533.1 -212.3 1258.6 1461.9 -203.2 1995 990.2 978.2 12.0 1406.5 1603.5 -197.0 1351.8 1515.8 -164.0 1996 1043.3 1017.5 25.8 1524.0 1665.8 -141.8 1453.1 1560.5 -107.5 1997 1097.4 1058.3 39.1 1653.1 1708.9 -55.8 1579.3 1601.2 -21.9 1998 1163.2 1111.2 52.0 1773.8 1734.9 38.9 1721.8 1652.6 69.2 1999 1236.7 1186.3 50.4 1891.2 1787.6 103.6 1827.5 1701.9 125.5 2000 1319.5 1269.5 50.0 2053.8 1864.4 189.4 2025.2 1789.1 236.2 2001 1373.0 1368.2 4.8 2016.2 1969.5 46.7 1991.2 1863.0 128.2 2002 1411.9 1436.9 -25.0 1847.3 2101.8 -254.5 1853.2 2011.0 -157.8 2003 1494.9 1498.1 -3.2 1877.0 2241.6 -364.6 1782.3 2159.9 -377.6 . 1567.9 . . 2341.5 . 1880.1 2292.2 -412.1 -28.9 1844.6 2053.1 -208.5 412.6 509.2 -96.6 2004 2002Q1 1380.9 1409.8 2002Q2 1404.1 1427.7 -23.6 1850.5 2102.1 -251.6 522.6 506.9 15.6 2002Q3 1423.9 1445.3 -21.4 1847.9 2103.1 -255.2 451.7 493.2 -41.5 2002Q4 1438.5 1464.8 -26.3 1846.2 2148.8 -302.6 427.3 535.6 -108.2 2003Q1 1437.7 1486.6 -48.9 1888.6 2170.2 -281.6 397.7 542.6 -144.9 2003Q2 1484.6 1490.2 -5.6 1902.5 2266.9 -364.4 527.6 544.2 -16.6 2003Q3 1511.4 1504.9 6.5 1816.4 2249.4 -433.0 429.4 536.9 -107.4 2003Q4 1545.8 1510.5 35.3 1900.6 2279.8 -379.2 440.8 570.9 -130.2 2004Q1 1550.6 1538.8 11.8 1915.3 2306.3 -391.0 409.6 580.4 -170.8 2004Q2 1583.9 1565.7 18.2 1949.1 2329.1 -380.0 549.9 575.6 -25.7 2004Q3 1574.7 1570.2 4.5 1965.8 2340.8 -375.0 479.5 565.2 -85.7 2004Q4 . 1596.8 . . 2389.7 . 487.2 605.1 -117.9 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 70 4 Total 60 2 0 50 NIPA -2 40 Held by Public -4 30 Unified Budget -6 20 -8 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 8 750 6 500 4 250 Total Excl. interest payments 0 2 0 -250 Held by Public Total -500 -2 -750 -4 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts 2002 6228.2 2675.7 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1200.8 2003 6783.2 2859.3 3924.0 656.1 3268.0 1455.5 2004 7379.1 3075.7 4303.4 700.3 3607.0 1861.9 March 5773.7 2339.4 3434.4 523.9 2892.8 1029.9 June 5726.8 2452.6 3274.2 535.1 2722.6 1000.5 September 5807.5 2468.8 3338.7 534.1 2779.7 1005.5 December 5943.4 2549.7 3393.8 551.7 2819.5 1051.2 March 6006.0 2562.4 3443.7 575.4 2849.2 1067.1 June 6126.5 2662.9 3463.5 590.7 2849.8 1135.4 September 6228.2 2675.7 3552.6 604.2 2924.8 1200.8 December 6405.7 2758.3 3647.4 629.4 3018.5 1246.8 March 6460.8 2750.0 3710.8 641.5 3069.9 1286.5 June 6670.1 2853.8 3816.3 652.1 3164.7 1382.8 September 6783.2 2859.3 3924.0 656.1 3268.0 1455.5 December 6998.0 2954.5 4044.1 666.7 3377.9 1538.1 March 7131.1 2954.4 4176.7 674.1 3502.8 1704.8 June 7274.3 3055.6 4218.7 687.4 3531.5 1799.8 September 7379.1 3075.7 4303.4 700.3 3607.0 1861.9 2001 2002 2003 2004 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 03/01/05 National Economic Trends Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly rate Percent of GDP 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 -110 -120 -130 -140 -150 -160 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 Investment Income (left scale) Current Account (right scale) Goods and Services (left scale) 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 Exchange Rates 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Yen/US$ 100 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Index, March 1973 = 100 160 375 140 300 120 225 Major Currency Index (left scale) 100 150 Yen (right scale) Euro Ecu (right scale) (right scale) 80 75 60 0 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 Goods Export Shares, 2004 UK 4.45% 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 Goods Import Shares, 2004 Mexico 10.57% Mexico 13.72% All Other 23.37% UK 3.15% China 13.35% China 4.30% Japan 6.74% Japan 8.79% All Other 25.46% Germany 3.89% France 2.63% Other OECD 17.36% 91 91 Germany 5.24% France 2.16% Canada 23.55% Canada 17.37% Other OECD 13.91% Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/10/05 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 25 20 15 Imports 10 Goods and Services 5 0 Exports -5 -10 Goods -15 -20 15341 2002 2003 15706 16071 2004 16437 15341 2002 2003 15706 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 20 -20 15 -40 10 -60 16071 2004 16437 Imports 5 -80 0 -100 Exports -5 -120 -140 -10 -160 -15 -180 -20 15341 2002 2003 15706 16071 2004 16437 15341 2002 15706 2003 16071 2004 16437 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual rates of change United Kingdom Germany 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 02 2002 03 Canada 2003 04 2004 05 04 2004 05 04 2004 05 France 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 02 2002 03 Japan 2003 Mexico 30 12 20 6 10 0 0 -10 -6 -20 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 02 2002 03 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 02/16/05 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from year ago Percent 15 90 Utilization Rate (level) (right scale) 10 80 5 70 Output/Hour (left scale) 0 60 -5 50 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 *Data from 1987 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 1987 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). 03 04 04 05 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 10 Nominal 5 Real 0 -5 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from year ago 9 6 Nonfinancial Corporations 3 Nonfarm Business Sector 0 -3 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Compounded annual rates of change 10 12 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 16437 2002 15341 2003 15706 2004 16071 16437 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 75 15 13 73 Corporate Profits (left scale) 71 11 Proprietors' Income (left scale) 9 69 67 7 5 65 Compensation (right scale) 3 63 61 1 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Corporate Profits Percent of GDP 12 Profits (Before Tax) 10 8 6 Profits (After Tax) 4 2 0 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 2001. 2002. 10128.0 2003. 2004. 11004.0 2001 1 Real GDP Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 3.2 9890.700 . 3.5 10074.800 . 4.9 10381.300 11733.5 . 6.6 10021.5 2.8 4.1 10487.0 Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . 0.8 9920.900 . 1.9 10063.200 . 3.0 10379.900 10841.600 . 4.4 9875.600 -0.5 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Change in Private Inventories Billions of 2000 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago . 1.6 . -31.700 . 1.4 . 11.700 . 3.1 . -0.800 10793.400 . 4.0 . 46.600 1.9 9883.200 1.6 2.2 -7.800 47.800 22.350 . 2 10128.9 4.4 3.1 9905.900 1.2 0.6 9908.700 1.0 1.6 -2.500 . 3 10135.1 0.2 2.8 9871.100 -1.4 0.4 9899.900 -0.4 1.2 -29.900 0.825 . 4 10226.3 3.6 2.7 9910.000 1.6 0.2 9992.300 3.8 1.5 -86.700 -31.725 2002 1 10338.2 4.4 3.2 9993.500 3.4 1.2 10000.400 0.3 1.2 -7.400 -31.625 . 2 10445.7 4.2 3.1 10052.600 2.4 1.5 10044.900 1.8 1.4 7.900 -29.025 . 3 10546.5 3.9 4.1 10117.300 2.6 2.5 10095.200 2.0 2.0 22.700 -15.875 . 4 10617.5 2.7 3.8 10135.900 0.7 2.3 10112.500 0.7 1.2 23.800 11.750 2003 1 10744.6 4.9 3.9 10184.400 1.9 1.9 10173.300 2.4 1.7 9.600 16.000 9.625 . 2 10884.0 5.3 4.2 10287.400 4.1 2.3 10302.500 5.2 2.6 -17.600 . 3 11116.7 8.8 5.4 10472.800 7.4 3.5 10473.900 6.8 3.8 -3.500 3.075 . 4 11270.9 5.7 6.2 10580.700 4.2 4.4 10569.600 3.7 4.5 8.600 -0.725 2004 1 11472.6 7.4 6.8 10697.500 4.5 5.0 10655.800 3.3 4.7 40.000 6.875 2 11657.5 6.6 7.1 10784.700 3.3 4.8 10722.300 2.5 4.1 61.100 26.550 . . 3 11814.9 5.5 6.3 10891.000 4.0 4.0 10854.700 5.0 3.6 34.500 36.050 . 4 11988.9 6.0 6.4 10993.300 3.8 3.9 10940.700 3.2 3.5 51.000 46.650 Consumption Billions of 2000 $ 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. Durables Consumption Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ 2.5 900.700 . 6910.400 . 7123.400 . 3.1 959.600 . 3.3 1030.600 . 3.8 1098.800 7355.600 7632.300 Private Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ 4.3 1629.400 . 6.5 1548.900 . 7.4 1627.300 . 6.6 1793.600 Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago . -3.0 1180.500 . -4.2 . -4.9 1075.600 . -8.9 . 5.1 1110.800 . 3.3 . 10.2 1228.200 . 10.6 2001 1 6853.100 1.7 2.9 879.500 6.7 0.8 1678.200 -2.6 1.6 1234.400 -4.3 3.2 . 2 6870.300 1.0 2.5 878.900 -0.3 3.2 1640.500 -8.7 -2.9 1190.200 -13.6 -3.9 . 3 6900.500 1.8 2.0 885.600 3.1 2.5 1621.900 -4.5 -3.8 1169.300 -6.8 -6.1 . 4 7017.600 7.0 2.8 958.700 37.3 10.8 1577.000 -10.6 -6.7 1128.200 -13.3 -9.6 2002 1 7049.700 1.8 2.9 937.800 -8.4 6.6 1559.600 -4.3 -7.1 1099.800 -9.7 -10.9 . 2 7099.200 2.8 3.3 947.800 4.3 7.8 1545.900 -3.5 -5.8 1072.400 -9.6 -9.9 . 3 7149.900 2.9 3.6 979.300 14.0 10.6 1546.600 0.2 -4.6 1069.500 -1.1 -8.5 . 4 7194.600 2.5 2.5 973.400 -2.4 1.5 1543.500 -0.8 -2.1 1060.900 -3.2 -6.0 2003 1 7242.200 2.7 2.7 973.200 -0.1 3.8 1552.700 2.4 -0.4 1060.500 -0.2 -3.6 . 2 7311.400 3.9 3.0 1020.000 20.7 7.6 1593.400 10.9 3.1 1090.600 11.8 1.7 . 3 7401.700 5.0 3.5 1059.600 16.5 8.2 1660.600 18.0 7.4 1131.100 15.7 5.8 . 4 7466.800 3.6 3.8 1069.700 3.9 9.9 1702.700 10.5 10.3 1161.000 11.0 9.4 2004 1 7543.000 4.1 4.2 1075.500 2.2 10.5 1721.400 4.5 10.9 1173.000 4.2 10.6 . 2 7572.400 1.6 3.6 1074.700 -0.3 5.4 1778.300 13.9 11.6 1207.900 12.4 10.8 . 3 7667.800 5.1 3.6 1118.300 17.2 5.5 1816.100 8.8 9.4 1245.300 13.0 10.1 . 4 7746.200 4.2 3.7 1127.000 3.1 5.4 1858.500 9.7 9.2 1286.700 14.0 10.8 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/25/05 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Index 2001. 2002. 102.402 2003. 2004. 106.003 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Employment Cost Index Index . 2.4 155.0 . 1.7 160.9 . 1.8 167.3 108.287 . 2.2 2001 1 101.507 3.3 . 2 102.290 . 3 102.690 . 4 103.122 2002 1 103.470 1.4 . 2 103.853 1.5 . 3 104.280 1.7 . 4 104.786 2003 1 . Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index 4.1 151.4 . 3.8 156.4 . 4.0 161.0 173.7 . 3.8 2.2 152.7 4.3 3.1 2.5 154.2 1.6 2.4 155.7 1.7 2.4 Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 3.7 163.7 . 4.9 . 3.3 171.7 . 4.9 . 2.9 182.5 . 6.3 165.0 . 2.5 195.4 . 7.1 4.2 149.4 4.1 3.8 160.7 4.6 5.0 4.0 4.0 150.8 3.8 3.7 162.5 4.6 4.8 3.9 3.9 152.0 3.2 3.6 164.7 5.5 4.9 157.4 4.4 4.2 153.5 4.0 3.8 167.0 5.7 5.1 1.9 158.8 3.6 4.0 154.8 3.4 3.6 168.4 3.4 4.8 1.5 160.5 4.4 4.1 156.2 3.7 3.6 170.8 5.8 5.1 1.5 161.5 2.5 3.7 156.9 1.8 3.2 172.6 4.3 4.8 2.0 1.6 162.8 3.3 3.4 157.7 2.1 2.7 175.0 5.7 4.8 105.490 2.7 2.0 165.0 5.5 3.9 159.3 4.1 2.9 178.6 8.5 6.1 2 105.780 1.1 1.9 166.4 3.4 3.7 160.3 2.5 2.6 181.1 5.7 6.0 . 3 106.158 1.4 1.8 168.2 4.4 4.1 161.7 3.5 3.1 183.8 6.1 6.5 . 4 106.586 1.6 1.7 169.5 3.1 4.1 162.5 2.0 3.0 186.3 5.6 6.5 2004 1 107.314 2.8 1.7 171.3 4.3 3.8 163.5 2.5 2.6 191.2 10.9 7.1 108.169 3.2 2.3 173.0 4.0 4.0 164.4 2.2 2.6 194.5 7.1 7.4 104.097 . ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 2 . 3 108.551 1.4 2.3 174.5 3.5 3.7 165.8 3.5 2.5 196.4 4.0 6.9 . 4 109.115 2.1 2.4 175.8 3.0 3.7 166.4 1.5 2.4 199.3 6.0 7.0 Exports Billions of 2000 $ 2001. 1036.700 2002. 1012.300 2003. 1031.800 2004. 1119.800 Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 2000 $ . -5.4 1435.800 . -2.4 1484.400 . 1.9 1550.300 . 8.5 1704.000 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Year Annual rate ago . -2.7 118.3 . 2.4 . 3.4 123.5 . . 4.4 129.0 . 9.9 134.2 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Index Percent change Year Annual rate ago 139.3 . 4.0 4.4 143.8 . 3.2 . 4.5 149.7 . 4.1 . 4.0 156.0 . 4.2 2001 1 1097.200 -5.3 3.4 1495.400 -3.7 5.9 116.5 -0.3 2.5 138.1 6.6 4.5 . 2 1060.600 -12.7 -2.9 1445.800 -12.6 -1.4 118.1 5.6 2.0 138.9 2.3 4.8 . 3 1008.700 -18.2 -9.9 1407.100 -10.3 -7.2 118.5 1.4 2.6 139.6 2.0 3.3 . 4 980.300 -10.8 -11.9 1394.900 -3.4 -7.6 120.4 6.6 3.3 140.7 3.2 3.5 2002 1 991.600 4.7 -9.6 1436.500 12.5 -3.9 122.4 6.8 5.1 142.6 5.5 3.3 . 2 1017.800 11.0 -4.0 1475.900 11.4 2.1 122.8 1.3 4.0 143.8 3.4 3.5 . 3 1025.500 3.1 1.7 1495.300 5.4 6.3 124.1 4.3 4.7 144.3 1.4 3.4 . 4 1014.500 -4.2 3.5 1529.800 9.6 9.7 124.6 1.6 3.5 144.7 1.1 2.8 2003 1 1010.600 -1.5 1.9 1522.300 -1.9 6.0 125.8 3.9 2.8 146.6 5.4 2.8 . 2 1006.500 -1.6 -1.1 1531.700 2.5 3.8 127.8 6.5 4.1 148.7 5.9 3.4 . 3 1033.800 11.3 0.8 1542.500 2.9 3.2 130.6 9.1 5.2 150.9 6.1 4.6 . 4 1076.200 17.4 6.1 1604.500 17.1 4.9 131.7 3.4 5.7 152.5 4.3 5.4 2004 1 1095.400 7.3 8.4 1645.500 10.6 8.1 132.8 3.4 5.6 153.3 2.1 4.6 . 2 1114.800 7.3 10.8 1695.100 12.6 10.7 134.1 4.0 4.9 155.5 5.9 4.6 . 3 1131.100 6.0 9.4 1714.300 4.6 11.1 134.7 1.8 3.1 156.8 3.4 3.9 . 4 1137.800 2.4 5.7 1761.200 11.4 9.8 135.0 0.9 2.5 158.0 3.1 3.6 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 updated through 02/04/05 National Economic Trends Household Survey Employment 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . . Change Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago Thousands Change Index 136901 3400 . 2.5 131792 2800 . 2.2 103.5 136940 40 . 0.0 131833 41 . 0.0 102.1 136483 -458 . -0.3 130345 -1487 . -1.1 100.0 137734 1252 . 0.9 129999 -347 . -0.3 139248 1513 . 1.1 131473 1474 1 136096 -126 -0.4 -1.2 130500 2 136367 271 0.8 -0.5 130346 2003 . 2004 . 2002 Thousands Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 1.8 . . -1.4 . . -2.0 98.6 . . -1.4 . 1.1 100.3 . . 1.7 -419 -1.3 -1.5 100.3 -0.2 -0.7 -2.9 -154 -0.5 -1.4 100.2 -0.1 -0.4 -2.3 . . 3 136824 457 1.3 0.1 130274 -72 -0.2 -1.1 99.8 -0.4 -1.6 -1.9 . 4 136642 -182 -0.5 0.3 130262 -12 -0.0 -0.5 99.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 2003 1 137415 773 2.3 1.0 130093 -169 -0.5 -0.3 99.0 -0.4 -1.7 -1.3 . 2 137652 237 0.7 0.9 129845 -248 -0.8 -0.4 98.3 -0.8 -3.1 -2.0 . 3 137574 -77 -0.2 0.5 129890 45 0.1 -0.3 98.3 0.1 0.3 -1.5 . 4 138296 722 2.1 1.2 130168 278 0.9 -0.1 98.8 0.5 2.0 -0.6 2004 1 138408 112 0.3 0.7 130541 374 1.2 0.3 99.3 0.5 2.0 0.3 . 2 138883 475 1.4 0.9 131325 784 2.4 1.1 100.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 . 3 139608 725 2.1 1.5 131731 406 1.2 1.4 100.6 0.6 2.4 2.3 . 4 140092 484 1.4 1.3 132294 564 1.7 1.6 101.3 0.7 2.8 2.5 2003 Jan 137429 1029 9.4 1.3 130247 86 0.8 -0.3 99.3 0.0 0.0 -1.1 . Feb 137365 -64 -0.6 0.7 130125 -122 -1.1 -0.3 98.9 -0.4 -4.7 -1.4 . Mar 137451 86 0.8 0.9 129907 -218 -2.0 -0.4 98.9 0.0 0.0 -1.4 . Apr 137628 177 1.6 1.1 129853 -54 -0.5 -0.4 98.3 -0.6 -7.0 -2.1 . May 137552 -76 -0.7 0.7 129827 -26 -0.2 -0.4 98.2 -0.1 -1.2 -2.0 . Jun 137775 223 2.0 1.0 129854 27 0.2 -0.4 98.3 0.1 1.2 -1.8 . 137511 -264 -2.3 0.8 129857 3 0.0 -0.3 98.3 0.0 0.0 -1.4 . Jul Aug 137593 82 0.7 0.6 129859 2 0.0 -0.3 98.3 0.0 0.0 -1.6 . Sep 137619 26 0.2 0.2 129953 94 0.9 -0.2 98.4 0.1 1.2 -1.5 . Oct 138022 403 3.6 0.7 130076 123 1.1 -0.2 98.8 0.4 5.0 -0.8 . Nov 138457 435 3.8 1.4 130172 96 0.9 -0.1 99.1 0.3 3.7 -0.4 . Dec 138409 -48 -0.4 1.5 130255 83 0.8 0.1 98.6 -0.5 -5.9 -0.7 2004 Jan 138481 72 0.6 0.8 130372 117 1.1 0.1 99.3 0.7 8.9 0.0 . Feb 138334 -147 -1.3 0.7 130466 94 0.9 0.3 99.4 0.1 1.2 0.5 . Mar 138408 74 0.6 0.7 130786 320 3.0 0.7 99.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.4 . Apr 138645 237 2.1 0.7 131123 337 3.1 1.0 99.7 0.4 4.9 1.4 . May 138846 201 1.8 0.9 131373 250 2.3 1.2 100.3 0.6 7.5 2.1 . Jun 139158 312 2.7 1.0 131479 106 1.0 1.3 99.9 -0.4 -4.7 1.6 . 139639 481 4.2 1.5 131562 83 0.8 1.3 100.3 0.4 4.9 2.0 . Jul Aug 139658 19 0.2 1.5 131750 188 1.7 1.5 100.5 0.2 2.4 2.2 . Sep 139527 -131 -1.1 1.4 131880 130 1.2 1.5 100.9 0.4 4.9 2.5 2.4 . Oct 139827 300 2.6 1.3 132162 282 2.6 1.6 101.2 0.3 3.6 . Nov 140293 466 4.1 1.3 132294 132 1.2 1.6 101.1 -0.1 -1.2 2.0 . Dec 140156 -137 -1.2 1.3 132427 133 1.2 1.7 101.5 0.4 4.9 2.9 2005 Jan 140241 85 0.7 1.3 132573 146 1.3 1.7 101.4 -0.1 -1.2 2.1 Research Division 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 03/02/05 National Economic Trends Retail and Food Services Sales Unempl. Rate 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . 2003 . 2004 . 2002 Billions of dollars 4.0 3372.438 4.8 3475.898 5.8 3564.420 6.0 3754.204 5.5 4038.969 Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Industrial Production Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index . 6.6 115.380 . . 3.1 111.266 . . 2.5 110.959 . 5.3 110.932 . . 7.6 115.494 . . 1 5.7 878.111 -1.2 -4.7 2.4 109.994 888.077 2.3 111.188 Treasury Yields (Percent) 3-mo 10-yr . 4.3 5.82 6.03 . . -3.6 3.39 5.02 . . -0.3 1.60 4.61 . -0.0 1.01 4.02 . . 4.1 1.37 4.27 0.6 2.3 -2.9 1.72 5.08 1.72 5.10 . . . 2 5.8 1.1 4.6 1.1 4.4 -0.6 . 3 5.7 896.786 1.0 4.0 4.1 111.648 0.4 1.7 1.0 1.64 4.26 . 4 5.9 901.446 0.5 2.1 1.4 111.007 -0.6 -2.3 1.5 1.33 4.01 2003 1 5.8 913.320 1.3 5.4 4.0 110.825 -0.2 -0.7 0.8 1.16 3.92 . 2 6.1 927.858 1.6 6.5 4.5 109.707 -1.0 -4.0 -1.3 1.04 3.62 . 3 6.1 952.983 2.7 11.3 6.3 110.825 1.0 4.1 -0.7 0.93 4.23 . 4 5.9 960.043 0.7 3.0 6.5 112.369 1.4 5.7 1.2 0.92 4.29 2004 1 5.7 985.234 2.6 10.9 7.9 113.920 1.4 5.6 2.8 0.92 4.02 . 2 5.6 1000.594 1.6 6.4 7.8 115.130 1.1 4.3 4.9 1.08 4.60 . 3 5.4 1014.464 1.4 5.7 6.5 115.893 0.7 2.7 4.6 1.49 4.30 . 4 5.4 1038.677 2.4 9.9 8.2 117.032 1.0 4.0 4.1 2.01 4.17 2003 Feb 5.9 301.347 -1.1 -12.5 2.7 111.034 0.1 1.6 1.2 1.17 3.90 . Mar 5.8 307.262 2.0 26.3 4.8 110.551 -0.4 -5.1 0.2 1.13 3.81 . Apr 6.0 308.132 0.3 3.5 3.6 109.538 -0.9 -10.5 -1.1 1.13 3.96 . May 6.1 307.397 -0.2 -2.8 4.6 109.640 0.1 1.1 -1.2 1.07 3.57 . Jun 6.3 312.329 1.6 21.0 5.2 109.942 0.3 3.4 -1.7 0.92 3.33 . 6.2 315.123 0.9 11.3 5.2 110.616 0.6 7.6 -1.0 0.90 3.98 . Jul Aug 6.1 320.843 1.8 24.1 6.7 110.528 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 0.95 4.45 . Sep 6.1 317.017 -1.2 -13.4 6.8 111.331 0.7 9.1 -0.3 0.94 4.27 . Oct 6.0 317.127 0.0 0.4 6.2 111.559 0.2 2.5 0.4 0.92 4.29 . Nov 5.9 321.973 1.5 20.0 7.3 112.657 1.0 12.5 1.3 0.93 4.30 . Dec 5.7 320.943 -0.3 -3.8 5.9 112.892 0.2 2.5 2.0 0.90 4.27 2004 Jan 5.7 324.420 1.1 13.8 6.5 113.223 0.3 3.6 2.1 0.88 4.15 . Feb 5.6 326.996 0.8 10.0 8.5 114.426 1.1 13.5 3.1 0.93 4.08 . Mar 5.7 333.818 2.1 28.1 8.6 114.110 -0.3 -3.3 3.2 0.94 3.83 . Apr 5.5 331.131 -0.8 -9.2 7.5 114.736 0.5 6.8 4.7 0.94 4.35 . May 5.6 335.920 1.4 18.8 9.3 115.534 0.7 8.7 5.4 1.02 4.72 . Jun 5.6 333.543 -0.7 -8.2 6.8 115.120 -0.4 -4.2 4.7 1.27 4.73 . 5.5 336.944 1.0 12.9 6.9 115.930 0.7 8.8 4.8 1.33 4.50 . Jul Aug 5.4 336.059 -0.3 -3.1 4.7 116.036 0.1 1.1 5.0 1.48 4.28 . Sep 5.4 341.461 1.6 21.1 7.7 115.714 -0.3 -3.3 3.9 1.65 4.13 . Oct 5.5 345.033 1.0 13.3 8.8 116.649 0.8 10.1 4.6 1.76 4.10 . Nov 5.4 344.877 -0.0 -0.5 7.1 116.822 0.1 1.8 3.7 2.07 4.19 . Dec 5.4 348.767 1.1 14.4 8.7 117.624 0.7 8.6 4.2 2.19 4.23 2005 Jan 5.2 347.665 -0.3 -3.7 7.2 117.667 0.0 0.4 3.9 2.33 4.22 . Feb . 2.54 4.17 . . . . . . . . Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 updated through 02/23/05 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index 2000 . 2001 . 172.2 2002 . 2003 . 179.8 184.0 2004 . 188.9 2002 177.1 Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago . 3.4 . 2.8 . . 1.6 . . 2.3 . 2.7 . . . Year to date Index . 181.3 . 186.1 . 190.4 . 193.2 . 196.6 Monthly/ quarterly Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 138.0 . . . 140.7 . . 1.9 . 138.9 . . -1.3 . 143.3 . . 3.2 . 1.8 . 148.5 . . 3.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 138.2 -0.2 -1.0 -2.4 0.3 1.3 -2.3 2.4 . 2.7 . . 2.3 . . 1.5 . . Year to date . . . Producer Price Index Finished Goods 3.9 1 178.1 0.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 189.0 0.6 . 2 179.5 0.8 3.3 1.3 2.3 190.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 2.2 138.6 . 3 180.4 0.5 2.1 1.6 2.3 191.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 138.8 0.1 0.5 -1.4 . 4 181.4 0.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 191.8 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.1 139.9 0.8 3.1 1.0 2003 1 183.2 1.0 4.2 2.9 4.2 192.4 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.4 142.7 2.0 8.4 3.3 . 2 183.4 0.1 0.4 2.2 2.3 192.8 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.1 142.2 -0.4 -1.5 2.5 . 3 184.4 0.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 193.6 0.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 143.5 0.9 3.8 3.4 . 4 184.8 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.9 194.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 144.9 1.0 4.0 3.6 2004 1 186.6 1.0 3.9 1.8 3.9 195.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 1.9 145.9 0.7 2.8 2.2 188.6 1.1 4.4 2.8 4.2 196.2 0.6 2.6 1.8 2.2 148.0 1.4 5.8 4.1 . 2 . 3 189.4 0.4 1.6 2.7 3.3 197.1 0.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 148.6 0.4 1.6 3.5 . 4 191.0 0.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 198.2 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 151.5 2.0 8.0 4.5 2003 Jan 182.3 0.4 4.7 2.6 4.7 192.3 0.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 141.2 1.1 13.7 2.5 . Feb 183.3 0.5 6.8 3.0 5.7 192.5 0.1 1.3 1.8 1.6 142.6 1.0 12.6 3.3 . Mar 184.1 0.4 5.4 3.1 5.6 192.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.0 144.3 1.2 15.3 3.9 . Apr 183.5 -0.3 -3.8 2.3 3.2 192.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.8 142.2 -1.5 -16.1 2.4 . May 183.3 -0.1 -1.3 2.1 2.3 192.9 0.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 141.7 -0.4 -4.1 2.5 . Jun 183.4 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 193.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.0 142.6 0.6 7.9 2.8 . 183.8 0.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 193.4 0.2 2.5 1.5 1.3 142.8 0.1 1.7 3.0 . Jul Aug 184.4 0.3 4.0 2.2 2.3 193.6 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 143.6 0.6 6.9 3.5 . Sep 185.0 0.3 4.0 2.3 2.5 193.7 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 144.1 0.3 4.3 3.6 . Oct 184.8 -0.1 -1.3 2.0 2.1 194.0 0.2 1.9 1.3 1.3 144.8 0.5 6.0 3.4 . Nov 184.6 -0.1 -1.3 1.8 1.8 194.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 144.6 -0.1 -1.6 3.4 . Dec 185.0 0.2 2.6 1.9 1.9 194.2 0.1 1.1 145.3 0.5 6.0 4.0 1.2 1.1 2004 Jan 185.9 0.5 6.0 2.0 6.0 194.6 0.2 2.5 1.2 2.5 145.7 0.3 3.4 3.2 . Feb 186.5 0.3 3.9 1.7 5.0 194.9 0.2 1.9 1.2 2.2 145.6 -0.1 -0.8 2.1 . Mar 187.3 0.4 5.3 1.7 5.1 195.5 0.3 3.8 1.6 2.7 146.4 0.5 6.8 1.5 . Apr 187.7 0.2 2.6 2.3 4.4 195.9 0.2 2.5 1.8 2.6 147.4 0.7 8.5 3.7 . May 188.8 0.6 7.3 3.0 5.0 196.2 0.2 1.9 1.7 2.5 148.3 0.6 7.6 4.7 . Jun 189.3 0.3 3.2 3.2 4.7 196.6 0.2 2.5 1.9 2.5 148.2 -0.1 -0.8 3.9 . 189.2 -0.1 -0.6 2.9 3.9 196.8 0.1 1.2 1.8 2.3 148.3 0.1 0.8 3.9 . Jul Aug 189.3 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 196.9 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 148.5 0.1 1.6 3.4 . Sep 189.6 0.2 1.9 2.5 3.3 197.5 0.3 3.7 2.0 2.3 148.9 0.3 3.3 3.3 . Oct 190.7 0.6 7.2 3.2 3.7 197.9 0.2 2.5 2.0 2.3 150.9 1.3 17.4 4.2 . Nov 191.2 0.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 198.2 0.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 152.0 0.7 9.1 5.1 . Dec 191.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.4 198.5 0.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 151.5 -0.3 -3.9 4.3 2005 Jan 191.3 0.1 0.6 2.9 0.6 198.9 0.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 151.9 0.3 3.2 4.3 Research Division 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories. Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. Real GDP is measured in 2000 dollars. The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers’) Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth rate, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p. 16. The sign is changed for Imports. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages. All rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The 30-year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb. 18, 2002. Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month. Consumer Price Index is for all urban consumers. The Consumption Chain Price Index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10, 11: Effective with the May 2003 Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 1987 SIC system to the 2002 NAICS system. All published NAICS-based labor series have been revised back to at least 1990. For more information see http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about 400,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about 60,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. The 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 290,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. Because the household survey was changed in January 1994, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb. 7, 2003, with the release of the January 2003 data. For more information, see <www.bls.gov/cps/>. Page 13: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Page 15: Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp. 18-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements. Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital. Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows). Pages 16, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs. The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal Fiscal Year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997. Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The Investment Income Balance equals income received from U.S.-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Nonfarm business accounted for about 76 percent of the value of GDP in 1996, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about 54 percent. Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. NOTE: Most measures of economic activity are now based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 1987 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system. Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept. of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept. of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity. United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt. Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, household debt. The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index. The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED). 27
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