Full text of National Economic Trends : March 1993

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March 1993

National
Economic
Trends
shows (in 1988 dollars) the movements of these esti­
mated costs and real GDP over three sub-periods
relative to their 1977 levels (1977=100). The first
interval (1977— 1982) shows real output growth aver­
aging 1.3 percent a year while real regulatory costs fell
at an average annual rate of between 1.7 percent and
2.4 percent. During the period 1982— 1988 (with the
exception of 1987), regulatory costs continued to fall
The slow rate of economic growth and job creation
while growth in real GDP accelerated sharply.
during the past several years has puzzled many
Since 1988, however, the trend of real regulatory
analysts. Among the many conjectures offered to
costs
has been reversed, rising between 2.3 percent and
explain these developments, some say greater regula­
2.7 percent each year.
tory burdens have both
Average growth in real
raised the cost of hiring
GDP during the same
Total Regulatory Costs (High- and Low-Cost Scenarios) and
of new workers and
Real
GDP
(1988
dollars)
period has slowed to a
^educed profit margins.
1977=100
rate near 1 percent.
i true, increased regula­
140Although the 1992
tion would discourage a
percent
estimates
are based on
general increase in out­
130
incomplete data, their
Real GDP
put and thereby retard
120
high and low cost values
job creation as well.
s 3.9 percent
(in 1988 dollars) now
Moreover, even if they
110
range between $533 bil­
have no effect on total
100
lion and $413 billion.
output, employmentMoreover,
because these
related regulations will
90
estimates do not include
encourage firms to seek
the 1990 amendments to
production processes
80
the
Clean Air A c t,
that substitute capital for
70
which
experts project
workers.
1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 1992
will add $25 billion a
Some broad evidence
year to the costs of regu­
to support this hypothe­
latory compliance for the years 1992 and beyond, the
sis can be found in a recent review of studies that
chart underestimates the recent rise in regulatory costs
attempt to quantify the costs of regulatory
under either scenario.
compliance.1 Based on complete data for 1977 and
1988 and partial data for other years, the author of this
— Michael T. Belongia
survey synthesizes the available evidence into high and
VSee Hopkins, Thomas D. Cost of Regulation (Rochester
Institute of Technology, 1991).
low estimates of regulatory costs. The chart below

Have Regulatory
Burdens Slowed the
Growth of Real GDP?

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer
and a modem at 314-621-1824.




Consumer Price Index —All Urban Consumers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
1982-84=100

Initial Month

Terminal
Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
136.3

7-91

2.7

8-91

2.7

2.7

9-91

3.0

3.1

3.6

10-91

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.7

11-91

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.6

4.5

12-91

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.5

2.6

1-92

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.5

3.1

3.5

2-92

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.1

2.6

3-92

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

4.4

4-92

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.5

5-92

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.6

1.7

6-92

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.6

2.2

2.6

7-92

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

3.0

3.5

8-92

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6

9-92

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.7

10-92

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

5.2

11-92

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.9

2.6

12-92

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.1

1-7

1-93

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.4

3.9

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

136.6
137.0
137.3
137.8
138.1
138.5
138.8
139.3
139.7
139.9
140.2
140.6
140.9
141.1
141.7
142.0
142.2
6.1

142.9

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Revised fro* 1933




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 18, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1982-84=100
5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
136.7

7-91

-5.9

8-91

-5.5

-5.1

136.1
136.1

9-91

-3.7

-2.6

0.0

10-91

-2.8

-1.7

0.0

0.0

11-91

-1.0

0.2

2.1

3.1

6.3

12-91

-0.3

0.9

2.4

3.3

4.9

3.6

1-92

-0.4

0.6

1.8

2.2

3.0

1.3

-0.9

2-92

0.1

1.0

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.1

1.3

3.6

3-92

0.6

1.4

2.4

2.8

3.4

2.7

2.4

4.0

4.5

4-92

0.6

1.4

2.2

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.0

2.9

2.6

0.9

5-92

0.1

0.7

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.0

0.5

0.9

0.0

-2.2

-5.1

6-92

0.1

0.7

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.2

-1.2

-2.2

0.9

7-92

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.0

-1.1

-1.7

0.0

-0.9

8-92

0.6

1.1

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.5

0.4

2.3

3.1

7.2

9-92

0.8

1.3

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.0

2.6

3.2

5.4

3.5

10-92

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.1

2.4

3.5

1.7

0.0

1.5

0.4

3.0

2.0

1.4

2.2

3.5

2.2

2.9

4.0

11-92
12-92
1-93

0.7
0.9

1.1
1.3

1.6
1.7

1.1

1.5

1.9

6-91

7-91

8-91

1.7
1.8

136.1

1.8
1.9

136.8

1.5
1.6

137.2

1.3
1.5

137.1

1.5
1.7

137.5

1.3
1.5

138.0
138.1

0.9

0.9
1.2

1.2

137.5

1.9
2.1

137.6

2.1
2.3

137.5
138.3

2.9

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.4

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

2.0

2.1

1.8

138.7
138.7
138.8

0.9

139.2
4.4

139.7

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Revised fro* 1988
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 18, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month
6-91

Initial Month
7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1982-84=100
5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
100.6

7-91

-1.2

8-91

1.2

3.6

9-91

1.6

3.0

2.4

10-91

1.5

2.4

1.8

1.2

11-91

1.9

2.7

2.4

2.4

3.6

12-91

2.6

3.4

3.3

3.6

4.8

1-92

0.7

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.4

-2.3 -10.1

2-92

0.0

0.2

-0.4

-0.9

-1.5

-3.1

-7.4

-4.6

100.9
101.1
101.2
101.5
102.0

6.1

101.1
100.7

3-92

0.4

0.6

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.5

-3.9

-0.6

3.6

4-92

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-2.0

0.8

3.6

3.6

5-92

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.6

-0.5

2.1

4.4

4.8

6.1

6-92

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.2

4.8

7.3

8.6

11.1

16.4

7-92

2.8

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

5.4

7.5

8.5

10.2

12.4

8.5

8-92

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.1

3.9

5.4

5.8

6.3

6.4

1.8

-4.5

9-92

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.8

3.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

1.2

-2.3

0.0

10-92

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.2

3.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.3

0.4

2.9

6.0

11-92

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2

3.6

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

4.1

2.3

12-92

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

1.9

3.0

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

1.6

0.2

1.5

1.9

0.0

-2.3

1-93

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

3.3

4.0

4.1

4.1

3.9

2.2

1.2

2.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

101.0
101.3
101.8
103.1
103.8
103.4
103.4
103.9
104.1
103.9
5.9

104.4

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Revised froe 1988




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 18, 1993

3

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1982 = 100
5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
121.3

7-91

-1.0

8-91

0.5

2.0

9-91

1.0

2.0

2.0

10-91

1.5

2.3

2.5

3.0

11-91

1.6

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.0

12-91

0.8

1.2

1.0

0.7

-0.5

-2.9

1-92

0.7

1.0

0.8

0.5

-0.3

-1.5

0.0

2-92

1.0

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

3-92

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.0

0.7

2.0

3.0

3.0

4-92

1.4

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.2

2.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

5-92

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.6

2.6

3.2

3.3

3.5

4.0

6-92

1.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

2.6

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.0

7-92

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

0.0

8-92

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.0

9-92

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.0

3.0

121.5
121.7
122.0
122.2
121.9
121.9
122.2
122.5
122.8
123.2
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.9

10-92

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.2

0.7

1.0

1.0

-1.0

11-92

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.3

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.3

-1.0

-1.0

12-92

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

-0.3

0.0

1.0

1-93

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.2

0.6

1.5

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

123.8
123.7
123.8
2.0

124.0

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Revised fro* 1988




4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 12, 1993

Civilian Em ploym ent and U nem ploym ent Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons

126

119

112

105

■>—

T

1987

1988

1989

1993

1992

1991

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

7-91

-1.8

8-91

-1.8

-1.9

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

Thousands of
Persons
5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
116,711

116,522

9-91

0.8

2.1

6.2

10-91

0.2

0.9

2.4

-1.3

11-91

0.1

0.6

1.4

-0.9

-0.5

12-91

-0.2

0.1

0.6

-1.2

-1.2

-1.8

1-92

0.2

0.6

1.1

-0.2

0.2

0.5

3.0

2-92

0.1

0.4

0.8

-0.3

0.0

0.1

1.1

-0.8

3-92

0.4

0.7

1.1

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.8

1.2

3.1

4-92

0.7

0.9

1.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2.0

1.7

2.9

2.6

5-92

0.6

0.9

1.2

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.4

2.1

1.6

0.6

6-92

0.5

0.7

1.0

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.3

1.0

1.4

0.8

0.0

-0.7

7-92

0.7

0.9

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.2

8-92

0.7

0.8

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.4

0.6

9-92

0.6

0.7

1.0

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.6

10-92

0.5

0.7

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.4

11-92

0.7

0.9

1.1

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

3.9

12-92

0.8

1.0

1.1

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

2.0

3.2

2.5

1-93

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.0

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92




117,108
116,980
116,932
116,752
117,036
116,962
117,264
117,518
117,580
117,510
117,722
117,780
117,724
117,687
118,064
118,311
-2.4

118,071

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 5, 1993

Payroll Em ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

85

i------1------ 1------------ 1------1------1------ ------ 1------1------1------ ------ r

1987

1988

1989

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
108,190

7-91

-0.4

8-91

0.2

0.9

9-91

0.2

0.6

0.3

10-91

0.2

0.4

0.1

108,267
108,293
-0.1

108,285

11-91

-0.2

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.6

12-91

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

0.2

108,139

1-92

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

-0.6

2-92

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.1

0.5

3-92

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

4-92

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

108,154
108,100
108,142
108,200
108,377

5-92

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.3

6-92

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.3

-0.8

7-92

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.5

1.9

8-92

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.0

0.3

-1.2

9-92

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.0

0.3

-0.5

0.1

108,496
108,423
108,594
108,485
108,497

10-92

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.8

11-92

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.8

0.8

12-92

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.0

1-93

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.1

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92




108,571
108,646
108,736
1.2

108,842

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 5, 1993

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

-0.3

8-91

0.4

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
84,398

1.1

84,476
84,538

9-91

0.6

1.0

0.9

10-91

0.6

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.2

-0.1

-0.8

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

2-92

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.6

3-92

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

4-92

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.6

2.6

5-92

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.4

6-92

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.1

7-92

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.3

2.6

8-92

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.8

1.2

-0.2

9-92

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.5

1.1

10-92

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.3

1.4

11-92

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.8

1.1

1.2

0.9

12-92

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.5

1-93

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.6

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

0.3

11-91
12-91
1-92

84,581
84,526
84,570
84,573
84,617
84,668

0.7

84,847
84,948
84,953
85,135
85,123
85,201
85,301
85,366
85,475
1.6

85,588

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 5, 1993

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

Initial Month
Persons
3-92 4-92

2-92

Thousands of
5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
23,792

7-91

-0.9

8-91

-0.5

-0.1

9-91

-0.9

-0.9

-1.8

10-91

-1.3

-1.5

-2.2

-2.5

11-91

-2.0

-2.2

-3.0

-3.5

-4.5

12-91

-1.9

-2.1

-2.6

-2.8

-3.0

-1.5

1-92

-2.0

-2.2

-2.6

-2.9

-3.0

-2.2

-2.9

2-92

-1.8

-1.9

-2.2

-2.3

-2.2

-1.5

-1.5

-0.1

3-92

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

-0.9

0.1

0.4

4-92

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

0.1

-0.1

5-92

-1.2

-1.2

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.9

6-92

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.0

-1.5

-3.9

23,791
23,755
23,704
23,613
23,584
23,527
23,525
23,532
23,530
23,548
23,470

7-92

-1.4

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.7

-0.9

-1.2

-2.2

-0.6

8-92

-1.6

-1.7

-1.8

-1.8

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-2.1

-3.1

-2.7

-4.9

23,459
23,362

9-92

-1.7

-1.8

-1.9

-1.9

-1.9

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.7

-2.0

-2.4

-3.2

-2.9

-4.1

-3.3

10-92

-1.7

-1.8

-1.9

-1.9

-1.8

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-2.2

-2.8

-2.5

-3.2

-2.3

-1.3

11-92

-1.6

-1.6

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-1.6

-1.8

-2.3

-1.9

-2.3

-1.4

-0.4

0.5

23,296
23,270
23,280

12-92

-1.5

-1.6

-1.7

-1.7

-1.6

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.7

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.3

-0.6

-0.2

-1.0

1-93

-1.5

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.3

-1.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4

-1.6

-1.9

-1.6

-1.7

-1.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.7

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92




23,261
-0.4

23,254

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 5, 1993

7

Change in th e E m ploym ent Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total com pensation is the sum of benefits and w ages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

June 1989 ■ 100
4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
95.7

2-88

5.2

3-88

4.5

3.8

4-88

4.7

4.4

5.1

1-89

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.3

4.5

3-89

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

4-89

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.6

96.6
97.8
98.8
99.9
101.2

5.3

102.4
103.8

2-90

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

105.1

4-90

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

106.2
107.2
108.4

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.4

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.7

1-92

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.8

109.7
110.9
111.9
4.0

113.0

2-92

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.9

3-92

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

4-92

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.5

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

113.8
114.7
115.7

Data are for the last aonth of quarter. Revised froa 1988.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
January 26, 1993

8

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

1987=100

1 9 8 7 -1 0 0

120

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rates of ch an ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1987 * 100
5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
108.1

7-91

9.3

8-91

4.0

-1.1

9-91

4.2

1.7

4.5

10-91

3.1

1.1

2.2

0.0

11-91

1.8

0.0

0.4

-1.6

-3.3

12-91

0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.6

-5.4

-7.5

1-92

-1.1

-2.8

-3.1

-4.9

-6.5

-8.0

-8.6

2-92

-0.1

-1.4

-1.5

-2.6

-3.3

-3.3

-1.1

7.0

3-92

0.4

-0.7

-0.6

-1.5

-1.8

-1.4

0.7

5.8

4.6

<4-92

0.9

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

0.0

2.0

5.7

5.1

5.7

5-92

1.6

0.9

1.1

0.7

0.8

1.5

3.4

6.6

6.5

7.5

9.3

6-92

1.1

0.4

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.6

2.1

4.3

3.7

3.4

2.2

-4.3

7-92

1.8

1.2

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.8

3.2

5.3

5.0

5.1

4.9

2.8

10.4

8-92

1.4

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.8

1.2

2.4

4.1

3.6

3.4

2.8

0.7

3.4

-3.2

9-92

1.2

0.6

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.9

1.9

3.3

2.7

2.4

1.8

0.0

1.5

-2.7

-2.2

10-92

1.7

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.6

2.6

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.0

1.8

3.4

1.1

3.3

9.2

11-92

2.0

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.9

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.5

2.6

4.0

2.5

4.5

8.0

6.8

12-92

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.7

2.0

2.9

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.3

2.5

3.7

2.4

3.9

6.0

4.5

2.2

1-93

2.2

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.9

2.3

3.1

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.6

2.9

4.0

2.9

4.2

5.9

4.8

3.9

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

108.0




108.4
108.4
108.1
107.4
106.6
107.2
107.6
108.1
108.9
108.5
109.4
109.1
108.9
109.7
110.3
110.5
5.6

111.0

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Propared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 18, 1993

9

Personal Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
P ercen tages are annual rate s of chan ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

Initial Month
Annual Rates
3-92 4-92 5-92

2-92

Billions of Dollars
6-92

7-92

8-92

7-91

-1.2

8-91

-0.2

0.8

9-91

-0.3

0.2

-0.5

10-91

1.1

1.8

2.4

5.3

11-91

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.4

-4.3

12-91

2.2

2.9

3.4

4.8

4.5

14.2

1-92

1.7

2.2

2.5

3.3

2.6

6.3

-1.1

2-92

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.8

3.4

6.1

2.3

5.8

3-92

2.6

3.1

3.4

4.1

3.8

6.0

3.4

5.6

5.5

4-92

2.0

2.4

2.6

3.0

2.7

4.1

1.8

2.7

1.3

-2.8

5-92

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.6

3.7

1.8

2.5

1.4

-0.6

1.8

6-92

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.1

3.1

1.3

1.8

0.9

-0.6

0.5

-0.8

7-92

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.2

1.8

2.6

1.1

1.4

0.6

-0.6

0.1

-0.7

8-92

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.0

2.7

1.4

1.8

1.1

0.2

1.0

0.8

1.6

3.8

9-92

1.5

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.3

1.1

1.4

0.8

0.0

0.6

0.3

0.6

1.2

-1.3

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

3,510.4
3,512.7
3,511.3
3,526.4
3,513.4
3,552.5
3,549.3
3,565.9
3,581.9
3,573.3
3,578.6
3,576.1
3,574.4

-0.6

3,585.5
3,581.7

10-92

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.5

3.1

2.1

2.4

2.0

1.5

2.3

2.3

3.2

4.4

4.8

11.2

11-92

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.6

1.6

1.8

1.4

0.9

1.5

1.4

1.8

2.5

2.0

3.7

-3.2

12-92

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.3

2.5

2.8

2.5

2.2

2.8

3.0

3.6

4.5

4.6

6.7

4.5

12.9

1-93

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.5

3.1

2.2

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.6

3.6

4.9

2.9

6.0

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92




3,613.4
3,603.5
3,640.1
-0.4

3,638.9

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
March 1, 1993

10

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

190

190

170

150

130

1
1987

1

1

1988

I

1

1

1989

T
1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
P ercen tages are annual rates of ch an ge for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Tentinal
Month

Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month
6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
113,470

7-91

-2.7

8-91

-6.0

-9.1

9-91

-4.4

-5.2

-1.1

10-91

-3.2

-3.4

-0.4

0.4

11-91

-3.7

-4.0

-2.2

-2.7

-5.8

12-91

-3.1

-3.2

-1.7

-1.8

-3.0

0.0

1-92

-0.5

-0.1

1.8

2.6

3.3

8.2

17.1

2-92

1.8

2.5

4.5

5.7

7.1

11.8

18.2

3-92

-0.5

-0.2

1.2

1.6

1.8

3.8

5.1

-0.5 -16.9

4-92

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

1.4

1.6

3.1

3.9

-0.2

-8.6

0.4

5-92

0.0

0.3

1.4

1.7

1.9

3.2

3.9

0.8

-4.7

2.1

112,567
112,461
112,501
111,940
111,938
113,420
115,096

19.2
113,333

113,375
3.8

113,732

6-92

-0.3

-0.1

0.9

1.1

1.2

2.2

2.6

0.0

-4.4

0.2

0.1

-3.5

7-92

0.5

0.8

1.7

2.0

2.2

3.3

3.7

1.7

-1.5

2.7

3.5

3.3

10.6

113,397

8-92

0.4

0.6

1.5

1.8

1.9

2.8

3.1

1.3

-1.4

2.0

2.4

1.9

4.7

-1.0

9-92

0.8

1.1

1.9

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.6

2.0

-0.2

2.8

3.3

3.2

5.5

3.1

7.2

10-92

2.1

2.4

3.3

3.6

3.9

4.8

5.3

4.1

2.4

5.5

6.3

6.8

9.6

9.2

14.7

22.6

11-92

1.7

2.0

2.8

3.1

3.3

4.1

4.5

3.3

1.6

4.2

4.8

4.9

6.7

5.8

8.1

8.5

-3.9

12-92

2.1

2.4

3.2

3.5

3.7

4.4

4.8

3.8

2.3

4.7

5.3

5.5

7.1

6.4

8.3

8.6

2.2

8.8

1-93

1.9

2.1

2.9

3.1

3.3

4.0

4.3

3.3

1.9

4.0

4.5

4.5

5.7

4.9

6.1

5.9

0.8

3.3

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

114,356
114,265
114,933
116,899
116,508
117,333
-2.0

117,139

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100). CPI revised froa 1988.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 11, 1993

11

Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

1.54

-i------ 1------ 1------ ------ 1------ 1------ 1------------ i------ 1------r

1987

1988

1989

1992

1991

1990

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

6-91

-5.0

7-91

-3.1

-1.1

8-91

-2.2

-0.7

-0.3

9-91

-0.6

0.9

1.9

4.1

10-91

0.0

1.3

2.2

3.5

2.8

11-91

0.0

1.0

1.6

2.2

1.3

-0.1

12-91

0.6

1.6

2.2

2.8

2.4

2.1

4.5

1-92

2-92

Millions of
Dollars

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92

820,671
819,898
819,684
822,418
824,342
824,239
827,246

1-92

0.0

0.7

1.0

1.3

0.6

-0.1

-0.1

-4.4

2-92

0.1

0.7

1.0

1.2

0.6

0.1

0.2

-1.9

3-92

0.3

0.9

1.2

1.4

0.9

0.5

0.7

-0.5

1.5

2.3

4-92

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.3

1.0

1.3

0.5

2.2

3.0

3.6

5-92

0.5

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.2

1.4

1.7

1.3

-0.9

6-92

0.9

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.1

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.4

824,150
0.7

824,609
826,204
828,630
828,032
5.7

831,872

7-92

1.2

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.7

3.2

3.4

3.3

5.4

5.2

8-92

1.2

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.1

1.8

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.1

4.4

3.7

2.3

9-92

1.0

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.3

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.0

2.7

1.7

0.1

-2.2

10-92

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.4

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.6

1.8

0.7

-0.1

1.9

11-92

1.1

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.4

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.5

1.8

1.0

0.6

2.0

2.0

12-92

1.3

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.7

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.7

2.3

1.7

1.5

2.8

3.2

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92




835,373
836,972
835,457
836,788
838,164
4.4

841,207

9-92 10-92 11-92

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 12, 1993

12

Gross Dom estic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

P ercen tages are annual rates o f chan ge for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

2-88

4.3

3-88

3.4

2.5

4-88

3.6

3.2

3.9

1-89

3.5

3.2

3.5

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
4,704.8
4,734.5
4,779.7

3.2

4,817.6

2-89

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.5

1.8

3-89

2.6

2.3

2.2

1.7

0.9

0.0

4-89

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.5

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.2

2.8

2-90

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.9

1.0

3-90

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.9

0.7

-0.3

-1.6

4-90

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-1.6

-2.8

-3.9

1-91

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-1.9

-2.9

-3.5

4,839.0
4,839.0
4,856.7
4,890.8
4,902.7
4,882.6
4,833.8
-3.0

4,796.7

2-91

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-1.2

-1.7

-1.8

-0.7

1.7

3-91

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-o.i

1.5

4-91

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.9

-0.7

0.1

1.2

0.9

0.6

1-92

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.9

2-92

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.8

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.2

1.5

3-92

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.4

4-92

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.2

4.1

4.8

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-9«

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4,817.1
4,831.8

1.2

4,838.5
4,873.7
4,892.4
4,933.7
4,991.5

Fourth quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

13

Im plicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

----- r 5 . 1

4 .3

4 .3

3 .5

3 .5

2 .7

2 .7

— I------ ,------1- 1 . 9
19 8 7

19 8 8

19 8 9

19 9 0

19 9 3

19 9 2

Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1987 «= 100
4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
103.2

2-88

4.4

3-88

4.8

5.1

4-88

4.5

4.5

3.9

1-89

4.7

4.8

4.6

5.4

2-89

4.7

4.7

4.6

5.0

4.6

3-89

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

1-90

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.4

2-90

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.8

3-90

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

104.5
105.5
106.9
108.1
109.1
110.1
111.3
112.6
113.9

4.7

4-90

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.3

3.9

1-91

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

115.0
116.5

5.3

117.5

2-91

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.4

3.5

3-91

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.7

2.9

2.4

4-91

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.4

118.2
118.9
119.8

1-92

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.1

2-92

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3-92

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.0

4-92

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.0

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

120.6
121.2
121.8

Fourth quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88
2-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

4.6

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

2-92

3-92

4,688.7

3-88

3.2

1.9

4-88

3.5

3.0

4.1

4,710.9
4,758.7

1-89

3.0

2.5

2.8

1.5

2-89

2.9

2.4

2.6

1.8

2.2

3-89

2.7

2.3

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

4-89

2.4

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

4.3

2-90

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.6

4,776.3
4,802.0
4,823.0
4,831.8
4,883.3
4,870.0

-1.1

4,871.4

3-90

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

-0.5

0.1

4-90

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

1-91

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-1.3

-1.3

-2.0

-3.2

4,860.6
4,821.8

2-91

1.3

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

1.3

3-91

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

0.4

-0.5

4-91

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

0.3

-0.3

0.0

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.4

1.3

1.4

2.3

4.7

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.2

1-92

1-92

4,837.4
4,831.2
4,830.9
4,886.3
4,884.6

-0.1

2-92

1.2

3-92

1.3

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

1.3

1.3

1.8

2.4

1.3

2.8

4-92

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.9

2.0

2.5

3.1

2.6

4.0

5.2

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4,918.7
4,981.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
3,147.8

2-88

2.5

3-88

2.7

2.9

4-88

3.2

3.5

4.1

1-89

2.4

2.4

2.1

0.1

3,170.6
3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2

2-89

2.1

2.0

1.8

0.6

1.1

3-89

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.4

2.0

2.9

4-89

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

3,235.3
3,242.0

0.8

3,259.5

1-90

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.5

2.2

2-90

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.1

3-90

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.7

4-90

1.4

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-3.1

1-91

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.1

-1.5

-3.1

-3.0

2-91

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-1.4

-0.5

2.0

3-91

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

1.7

1.5

4-91

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.6

0.0

1.1

0.6

-0.3

1-92

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

1.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

5.1

2-92

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.4

-0.1

3-92

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.7

1.2

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.8

3.7

4-92

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.7

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.3

2.8

4.3

4.8

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

3,260.1

0.1

3,273.9
3,248.0
3,223.5
3,239.3
3,251.2
3,249.0
3,289.3
3,288.5
3,318.4
3,357.7

Fourth quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

2-88

3.7

3-88

3.2

2.7

4-88

3.2

3.0

3.3

1-89

1.0

0.1

-1.2

-5.4

2-89

-1.7

-3.0

-4.8

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

-2.7

-3.9

-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-7.6

4-89

-3.2

-4.2

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-2.1

-2.9

-3.9

-5.2

-5.2

-2.9

-0.5

2-90

-3.8

-4.7

-5.7

-7.1

-7.4

-6.3

-5.9

3-90

-5.9

-6.9

-8.0

-9.5 -10.2

4-90

-7.5

-8.6

-9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92

2-92

222.0
223.5
225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0
5.3

210.7

-5.9 -15.9

201.8

-9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9

189.1
177.5

1-91

-9.3 -10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9

2-91

-8.1

-9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6

3-91

-6.7

-7.5

-8.3

-9.2

-9.6

-9.4

-9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8

-8.7

-3.7

10.6

14.4

4-91

-5.6

-6.2

-6.9

-7.7

-7.9

-7.5

-7.5

-7.7

-9.4

-8.3

-5.0

-0.1

10.9

12.9

11.3

1-92

-4.2

-4.7

-5.2

-5.8

-5.8

-5.3

-5.0

-4.9

-6.1

-4.7

-1.2

3.6

13.1

15.2

15.6

20.1

2-92

-3.2

-3.7

-4.1

-4.6

-4.5

-3.9

-3.6

-3.3

-4.2

-2.7

0.6

5.1

13.0

14.6

14.6

16.3

12.6

3-92

-3.1

-3.4

-3.8

-4.3

-4.2

-?.6

-3.2

-3.0

-3.8

-2.3

0.6

4.4

10.8

11.5

10.8

10.7

6.2

0.2

4-92

-1.7

-2.0

-2.3

-2.6

-2.4

-1.7

-1.3

-0.9

-1.4

0.2

3.1

6.9

12.8

13.8

13.7

14.3

12.5

12.4

26.1

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

164.1
7.0

166.9
172.6
177.3
185.6
191.2
191.3
202.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92

2-92

531.4

11.0

535.2

3-88

6.9

2.9

4-88

5.5

2.8

2.7

1-89

4.2

2.0

1.6

2-89

3.8

2.0

1.7

1.3

3-89

3.1

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

2.1

0.7

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

2.6

1.4

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.6

1.1

6.2

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-1.2

-1.5

-0.4

-6.6

538.8
539.5

0.5

542.2

2.0

541.8
536.7
544.8
535.6

2-90

1.5

3-90

1.9

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

1.5

-0.7

5.6

4-90

0.8

-0.2

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

-1.8

-1.4

-3.8

-2.3

1-91

-0.7

-1.7

-2.1

-2.7

-3.1

-3.8

-4.3

-4.5

-6.9

-7.1 -12.8 -15.8

2-91

-0.9

-1.8

-2.2

-2.7

-3.1

-3.7

-4.2

-4.2

-6.2

-6.1

-9.7

-9.7

-3.1

3-91

-1.1

-1.9

-2.3

-2.8

-3.1

-3.6

-4.1

-4.1

-5.7

-5.6

-8.1

-7.6

-3.2

-3.4

4-91

-1.3

-2.2

-2.6

-3.0

-3.3

-3.8

-4.2

-4.2

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

-7.0

-3.9

-4.3

-5.2

1-92

-1.1

-1.8

-2.2

-2.5

-2.8

-3.2

-3.5

-3.5

-4.6

-4.3

-5.9

-5.1

-2.2

-1.9

-1.2

3.0

2-92

-0.1

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

-1.4

-1.7

-1.8

-1.7

-2.5

-2.0

-3.0

-1.8

1.2

2.3

4.3

9.4

16.1

3-92

0.0

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.9

-1.4

-2.3

-1.1

1.5

2.5

4.0

7.3

9.5

3.1

4-92

0.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.3

-0.9

-0.3

-1.0

0.2

2.7

3.7

5.2

7.9

9.6

6.5

9.9

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

542.9
529.3

-9.6

507.0
503.0
498.7
492.1
495.8
514.7
518.7
531.1

Fourth quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

2-88

10.3

3-88

8.5

6.8

4-88

10.3

10.3

14.0

1-89

11.6

12.1

14.9

15.7

454.5

2-89

12.6

13.1

15.3

16.0

16.3

472.0

3-89

10.5

10.5

11.5

10.7

8.3

0.8

472.9

4-89

10.9

11.0

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

487.7

1-90

10.8

10.9

11.6

11.2

10.1

8.0

11.9

10.7

2-90

10.4

10.4

11.0

10.5

9.4

7.8

10.2

8.8

3-90

9.3

9.2

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.1

7.5

4-90

9.5

9.4

9.7

9.2

8.3

7.0

8.3

1-91

8.2

8.0

8.2

7.5

6.5

5.2

6.0

4.6

3.1

1.9

3.0

-5.0

2-91

8.8

8.7

8.9

8.4

7.6

6.6

7.4

6.5

5.7

5.4

7.3

5.2

16.6

3-91

8.6

8.5

8.7

8.2

7.5

6.5

7.3

6.5

5.8

5.5

7.0

5.5

11.3

6.2

4-91

8.9

8.9

9.0

8.6

8.0

7.2

7.9

7.3

6.8

6.8

8.3

7.4

11.9

9.7

1-92

8.6

8.4

8.6

8.2

7.5

6.8

7.4

6.8

6.3

6.2

7.3

6.5

9.6

7.4

7.9

2.9

2-92

7.9

7.8

7.9

7.4

6.8

6.1

6.6

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.1

7.3

5.1

4.7

0.7

3-92

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.6

7.0

6.3

6.8

6.2

5.8

5.7

6.4

5.7

7.6

5.9

5.8

3.5

3.7

9.2

4-92

8.1

8.0

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.6

7.0

6.5

6.2

6.1

6.8

6.2

7.9

6.5

6.6

5.0

5.7

9.5

9.8

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

417.2
424.1
438.2

500.2
7.0

508.7

5.7

3.3

-0.2

508.4

7.2

6.0

5.5

522.6

11.6

515.9
536.1
544.2
561.4

13.3

565.4
563.4

-1.4

575.9
589.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

2-88

-4.0

3-88

2.2

8.7

4-88

5.3

10.2

11.7

1-89

2.7

5.0

3.1

-4.8

2-89

3.3

5.2

4.0

0.4

5.8

3-89

3.8

5.4

4.6

2.4

6.2

6.5

4-89

3.7

5.1

4.4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

3.6

4.7

4.1

2.6

4.5

4.1

3.0

2.6

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
515.2

526.1
540.9
534.3
541.9
550.5
555.0
558.6

2-90

3.8

4.8

4.2

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.7

3.9

5.1

3-90

3.5

4.4

3.9

2.8

4.1

3.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

1.5

4-90

2.4

3.0

2.4

1.3

2.2

1.6

0.7

0.1

-0.8

-3.6

1-91

0.8

1.3

0.6

-0.6

0.0

-0.9

-2.0

-3.1

-4.4

-7.4 -11.6 -14.6

2-91

1.9

2.4

1.9

0.9

1.6

1.1

0.3

-0.2

-0.7

-2.1

-3.3

-0.6

15.6

3-91

2.9

3.5

3.1

2.3

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.4

1.4

5.0

16.4

17.1

4-91

3.0

3.5

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.0

4.8

12.2

10.5

4.2

1-92

3.0

3.5

3.2

2.5

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.2

4.5

9.9

8.1

3.9

565.6
567.7
-8.5

555.3
533.8
553.5
575.8
581.8
586.8

3.5

2-92

3.7

4.2

3.9

3.4

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.9

6.1

10.9

9.7

7.4

9.0

14.7

3-92

4.3

4.8

4.6

4.1

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.2

7.3

11.5

10.7

9.2

10.9

14.8

14.8

4-92

4.4

4.8

4.6

4.2

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.9

4.9

5.3

7.1

10.7

9.9

8.5

9.6

11.7

10.2

5.7

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

607.3
628.6
637.4

Fourth quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

2-88

0.9

3-88

0.0

-0.9

4-88

1.6

2.0

5.0

1-89

0.8

0.8

1.6

-1.6

2-89

1.7

1.9

2.8

1.8

5.3

3-89

2.1

2.4

3.2

2.6

4.9

4.5

4-89

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.9

4.0

3.6

3.2

6.4

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-92

2-92

885.6
883.7
894.5
890.8
902.3
912.2
912.6
926.8

2-90

2.3

2.4

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

2.5

3.7

1.1

3-90

1.8

1.9

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.0

1.4

1.8

-0.4

-2.0

4-90

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

6.1

1-91

2.3

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.0

2.3

4.4

2.8

929.4
924.8
938.5
945.1

2-91

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.4

1.6

1.7

3.0

1.5

0.2

3-91

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.9

1.7

0.2

-1.0

-2.3

4-91

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

-0.6

-1.7

-2.6

-3.0

1-92

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.5

0.9

-0.1

-0.9

-1.2

-0.7

1.7

2-92

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

-1.2

-0.8

0.2

-1.2

3-92

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.6

1.0

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

1.4

1.3

3.8

4-92

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

0.5

0.1

0.8

-2.1

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

945.6
940.2
933.1
937.0
934.2
943.0
938.0

Fourth quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1992

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

4-89

Billions of Dollars
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92
352.1

1-88

10.7

2-88

12.5

14.5

3-88

8.6

7.6

1.2

4-88

10.2

10.0

7.9

1-89

6.0

4.9

1.9

2.3

-9.1

2-89

5.1

4.0

1.6

1.7

-4.4

3-89

2.3

1.0

-1.5

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

1.6

0.4

-1.8

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

3.1

2.2

0.5

0.4

-2.3

-0.5

-0.8

5.8

15.6

2-90

4.6

3.9

2.7

2.9

1.0

3.1

3.8

10.1

17.3

19.1

384.0

3-90

0.9

-0.1

-1.6

-1.9

-4.1

-3.3

-4.0

-1.7

-1.2

-8.6 -29.9

351.4

4-90

0.1

-0.8

-2.3

-2.6

-4.6

-4.0

-4.7

-3.0

-3.0

-8.5 -19.7

-8.2

1-91

0.6

-0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.4

-2.7

-3.2

-1.4

-1.1

-4.9 -11.8

-1.0

6.7

0.3

-0.4

-1.6

-1.8

-3.4

-2.7

-3.1

-1.6

-1.4

-4.4

-1.6

1.9

2-91

364.2
365.3
15.0

378.3
369.4
369.9

0.5

357.3
354.5
367.6

-9.6

344.0
349.6
-2.6

347.3
341.2

3-91

-0.2

-0.9

-2.0

-2.2

-3.7

-3.1

-3.5

-2.3

-2.2

-4.8

-9.0

-2.9

-1.1

-4.7

-6.8

4-91

0.3

-0.4

-1.4

-1.6

-2.8

-2.2

-2.5

-1.3

-1.0

-3.2

-6.5

-1.0

0.9

-1.0

-0.1

7.1

1-92

2.7

2.2

1.4

1.4

0.5

1.3

1.4

2.9

3.6

2.2

0.0

6.1

9.2

9.8

14.3

26.7

49.8

2-92

2.8

2.3

1.6

1.6

0.8

1.6

1.6

3.1

3.7

2.5

0.6

5.9

8.4

8.8

11.8

18.9

25.2

3-92

1.8

1.4

0.6

0.6

-0.3

0.4

0.3

1.5

2.0

0.7

-1.2

3.2

4.9

4.6

6.1

9.6

10.5

-5.1 -13.9

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

347.1
384.0
388.4

4.7

374.1

2-92

Corporate profits Mith capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Third quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

18

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus governm ent surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-87
1-88

8.8

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

4-89

Billions of Dollars
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

800.4

2-88

3.4

-1.7

3-88

2.3

-0.8

0.0

4-88

4.0

2.4

4.5

9.2

1-89

4.4

3.3

5.0

7.6

6.0

2-89

2.3

1.1

1.8

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

2.0

0.9

1.4

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

4-89

2.8

2.0

2.6

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

4.0

3.5

4.2

4.9

4.1

3.7

7.6

11.6

14.4

2-90

4.7

4.3

5.0

5.8

5.2

5.1

8.4

11.4

12.7

11.0

3-90

1.7

1.0

1.3

1.5

0.4

-0.5

1.0

1.2

-1.2

-8.2 -24.1

4-90

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.4

2.7

2.2

3.9

4.7

3.7

0.4

1-91

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.7

5.4

6.3

5.8

2-91

3.9

3.6

4.0

4.4

3.9

3.7

5.2

5.9

5.4

3-91

3.3

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.8

4.0

4.4

797.0
797.0
814.8
826.7
811.0
811.2
828.6
856.9
879.5
820.9

-4.5

20.1

3.8

1.5

17.4

14.8

3.7

2.0

12.5

8.9

3.4

3.8

2.2

0.5

7.8

4.0

-1.0

-5.2

859.3
889.4
896.9
884.9

4-91

4.5

4.2

4.7

5.0

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.2

5.1

4.1

11.0

8.8

6.9

8.6

24.5

1-92

4.6

4.4

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.9

6.5

6.3

5.3

4.5

10.2

8.4

6.8

8.0

15.3

6.7

2-92

4.8

4.6

5.0

5.3

5.0

5.0

6.1

6.6

6.4

5.6

4.9

9.9

8.3

7.0

7.9

12.7

7.3

7.8

3-92

5.1

4.9

5.3

5.6

5.4

5.3

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.0

5.5

9.9

8.6

7.6

8.4

12.1

8.3

9.0

10.3

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

934.8
950.1
968.1
992.1

Third quarter 1992 data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

19

B usiness Productivity and Com pensation
Percent Change From Previous Y ear
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1982 » 100
4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

-1.8
-0.2

1.5

4-88

-0.1

0.7

0.0

1-89

-0.8

-0.5

-1.4

-2.9

2-89

-0.7

-0.4

-1.0

-1.4

0.0

3-89

-0.8

-0.7

-1.2

-1.6

-0.9

-1.8

4-89

-0.7

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-0.5

-0.7

0.4

1-90

-0.5

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.3

-0.4

0.4

0.4

2-90

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.4

0.5

1.2

1.7

3.0

3-90

-0.3

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.7

-1.4

4-90

-0.3

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.4

-0.9

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-1.1

-0.9

-1.5

-0.2

-0.3

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

-0.4

0.0

0.2

1.8

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.7

1.8

1.8

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.6

1.0

1.4

2.3

2.6

3.3

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.7

3.0

3.7

4.0

2-91
3-91

-0.4
-0.2
-0.1

2-92

3-92
110.1

2-88
3-88

1-91

1-92

-0.3
-0.1

110.5

-0.4

110.5
109.7

4-91

0.1

0.3

0.2

1-92

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.5

109.7
109.2
109.3
109.4
110.2
109.8
109.7
109.3
109.8
110.3
111.2
112.3

2-92

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.5

1.1

3-92

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.7

2.0

2.5

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.1

4-92

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.6

3.9

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92




112.6
113.5

3.2

114.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 4, 1993

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billion? of
Dollars

Initial Quarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

1-88

9.4

2-88

8.1

3-88

8.2

7.6

8.3

4-88

7.3

6.6

6.4

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92
1,988.4

6.8

2,021.6
2,062.4
4.6

2,085.7

1-89

7.3

6.7

6.7

5.9

7.2

2-89

7.0

6.6

6.5

5.9

6.5

5.9

3-89

7.1

6.7

6.7

6.3

6.8

6.6

7.4

4-89

7.2

6.9

6.9

6.7

7.2

7.2

7.9

8.3

1-90

8.1

7.9

8.1

8.0

8.7

9.1

10.2

11.6

15.0

2-90

8.5

8.4

8.6

8.6

9.3

9.7

10.7

11.8

13.5

12.0

3-90

8.8

8.7

8.9

9.0

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.9

11.9

4-90

9.1

9.1

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.5

11.2

12.0

13.0

12.3

12.4

13.1

1-91

9.1

9.1

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.3

10.9

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.3

11.1

2,122.1
2,152.7
2,191.4
2,235.7
2,315.4
2,382.2
2,449.1

11.7

2,525.8
2,582.0

9.2

2-91

9.4

9.4

9.6

9.7

10.2

10.5

11.1

11.7

12.3

11.7

11.6

11.6

10.8

12.5

3-91

9.8

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.7

11.1

11.6

12.2

12.8

12.4

12.4

12.6

12.5

14.1

15.8

4-91

9.8

9.8

10.0

10.1

10.6

10.9

11.4

11.9

12.3

11.9

11.9

12.0

11.7

12.5

12.5

9.4

1-92

9.8

9.9

10.1

10.2

10.6

10.9

11.4

11.8

12.2

11.9

11.8

11.9

11.6

12.2

12.1

10.3

2-92

10.1

10.1

10.3

10.5

10.9

11.2

11.6

12.0

12.4

12.1

12.1

12.2

12.0

12.6

12.6

11.6

12.7

14.2

3-92

10.0

10.1

10.3

10.4

10.8

11.1

11.5

11.8

12.1

11.9

11.8

11.8

11.7

12.1

12.0

11.1

11.6

11.8

9.5

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

2,658.9
2,758.3
2,820.8
2,897.3

11.3

2,994.8
3,063.6

Prepared by' Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26., 1993

FEDERAL G O VERNM ENT DEBT
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs )
S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d End o f M o n th T o ta ls
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.5
2548.8
2614.3
2672.8

498.9
528.3
552.1
584.8

1988.4
2021.6
2062.4
2085.7

220.8
227.1
232.7
231.6

1765.2
1796.9
1830.8
1853.8

330.9
343.5
348.6
362.7

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.1
2801.9
2870.1
2942.1

617.3
650.3
678.7
702.9

2122.1
2152.7
2191.4
2235.7

232.5
231.2
224.4
221.1

1887.1
1921.0
1967.8
2011.0

374.8
367.7
398.8
391.7

1990 March
June
September
December

3046.9
3146.8
3247.7
3353.0

734.0
766.2
798.4
822.3

2315.4
2382.2
2449.1
2525.8

223.5
230.7
236.8
250.9

2096.6
2156.0
2217.6
2282.6

383.3
390.0
407.8
418.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3458.3
3542.0
3681.5
3788.4

880.3
884.9
922.9
961.4

2582.0
2658.9
2758.3
2820.8

252.3
254.4
269.8
271.7

2339.8
2414.6
2500.6
2556.6

426.3
437.3
445.0
451.4

1992 March
June
September

3873.6
3988.7
4080.9

978.4
995.9
1020.4

2897.3
2994.8
3063.6

273.1
276.3
302.1

2640.2
2731.5
2776.6

469.8
493.9
503.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




21

FEDERAL G O VE R N M E N T B UD G ETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

__________ Expenditures__________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Receipts____________
Cyclically
National
adjusted
income accounts
budget
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-1 4 9 .9
-2 0 6 .3
-1 8 2 .0
-1 8 7 .2

-1 3 3 .7
-1 8 3 .7
-1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-1 8 3 .3
-2 2 3 .8
-2 1 9 .7
-1 7 7 .5

-1 8 5 .0
-2 1 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-1 8 9 .7
-1 3 0 .3
-1 3 4 .5
-1 5 2 .7

-1 8 2 .3
-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 1 0 .0
-1 0 9 .7
-1 2 8 .0
-1 4 1 .5

-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1086.7
1109.6
1119.9
1113.3

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1254.5
1266.5
1265.5
1307.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 7 .8
-1 5 6 .9
-1 4 5 .6
-1 9 4 .6

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1114.6
1117.3
1127.7
1129.4

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.4
1329.4
1348.7
1388.1

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-1 4 9 .9
-2 1 2 .2
-2 2 1 .0
-2 5 8 .7

- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1143.3
1149.8
1155.4
N.A.

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1432.5
1452.7
1459.8
1481.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-2 8 9 .2
-3 0 2 .9
-3 0 4 .4
N.A.

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Estimates

Actual
1986

1985

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Total budget

Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$

734.1 $
946.4

769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1091.6
1381.8
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8

$ -2 1 2 .3 $ -2 2 1 .2 $ -14 9.8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .2

$ 1147.6 $ 1230.3
1474.9
1522.7
$ -3 2 7 .3

$ -2 9 2 .4

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$

788.6 $

969.9
$ -1 8 1 .4

827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1122.2 $ 1161.5
1028.2
1456.7
1065.6
1109.0
1181.6
1273.6
1332.7

$ -2 0 1 .0

$ -1 5 1 .8

$ -1 3 6 .6

$ -1 2 2 .3

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -2 1 0 .4

$ -2 9 5 .2

Cyclically adjusted budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$

808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
980.3
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1

$ -1 7 1 .9

$ -1 8 5 .4

$ -15 4.0

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -1 6 4 .1

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from OMB’s Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Alternatives for the Future (January 6, 1993).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




22

Government D eficit(—)/S u rp lu s( +)
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accou n ts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rales o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
294.8

2-88

-2.5

3-88

-1.8

-1.1

4-88

0.0

1.4

3.9

1-89

-1.1

-0.6

-0.3

-4.4

2-89

0.4

1.2

1.9

0.9

6.6

3-89

1.9

2.8

3.8

3.8

8.2

4-89

1.1

1.7

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

2.5

3.2

4.0

4.0

6.2

6.0

4.2

12.6

2-90

2.4

3.0

3.6

3.6

5.3

4.9

3.3

7.0

1.7

3-90

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.2

3.4

2.7

1.0

2.6

-2.0

-5.6

4-90

3.2

3.7

4.3

4.4

5.7

5.5

4.7

6.8

5.0

6.7

20.6

1-91

3.9

4.5

5.0

5.2

6.4

6.4

5.8

7.8

6.7

8.4

16.2

11.9

2-91

2.9

3.4

3.8

3.8

4.8

4.5

3.8

5.1

3.7

4.2

7.6

1.7

-7.6

3-91

2.4

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.7

3.6

2.2

2.3

4.4

-0.5

-6.2

-4.8

4-91

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.2

1.4

2.0

0.6

0.4

1.6

-2.6

-7.0

-6.8

-8.7

1-92

1.4

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.8

1.1

1.6

0.3

0.1

1.1

-2.4

-5.7

-5.0

-5.1

-1.4

2-92

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.9

1.5

0.8

1.2

0.0

-0.2

0.6

-2.4

-5.0

-4.4

-4.2

-1.9

-2.4

3-92

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.5

2.2

1.5

2.0

1.0

0.9

1.8

-0.6

-2.6

-1.5

-0.7

2.1

3.9

10.5

4-92

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.4

1.8

0.9

0.8

1.5

-0.7

-2.3

-1.4

-0.7

1.4

2.3

4.7

-0.7

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-SI

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

294.0
296.8
293.5
298.2
9.9

305.3
302.5
311.6
312.9
308.4
323.2
332.4
325.9
321.9
314.7
313.6
311.7
319.6
319.0

Fourth quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
subscription inquiries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-88
2-88

4.5

3-88

0.5

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91

1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92
810.2

-3 4

803.3
838.7

4-88

6.3

7 2

18.8

1-89

8.2

9 5

16.6

14.4

2-89

7.4

8 1

12.2

9.1

4.1

3-89

6.1

6 5

9.1

6.0

2.1

4-89

7.4

7 8

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

8.5

9 1

11.3

9.8

8.7

10.3

15.8

16.6

2-90

8.0

8 5

10.3

8.9

7.9

8.9

11.9

10.5

4.6

3-90

7.4

7 7

9.2

7.8

6.8

7.3

9.2

7.4

3.0

1.5

4-90

7.8

8 1

9.5

8.4

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

6.0

6.6

1-91

5.2

5 2

6.1

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.2

2.2

-1.2

-3.0

867.3
876.0
0.1

876.2
907.3
942.9
953.6
957.1
12.0

984.7

-5.2 -19.7

932.0

2-91

7.2

7 4

8.4

7.4

6.7

7.0

8.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

6.5

3.9

34.4

3-91

7.3

7 6

8.5

7.6

7.0

7.3

8.3

7.3

5.8

6.1

7.3

5.7

21.4

9.6

4-91

8.1

8 4

9.3

8.6

8.1

8.5

9.4

8.8

7.7

8.2

9.6

9.0

20.7

14.4

19.4

1-92

8.7

9 0

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.3

10.3

9.8

8.9

9.6

11.0

10.8

20.1

15.6

18.7

18.1

2-92

8.7

8 9

9.8

9i2

8.8

9.2

10.1

9.6

8.8

9.4

10.6

10.3

17.6

13.7

15.1

13.0

8.1

1,003.5
1,026.8
1,073.4
1,118.9
1,141.0

3-92

8.2

8 4

9.2

8.5

8.1

8.4

9.2

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.1

8.7

14.4

10.8

11.0

8.4

3.8

-0.3

4-92

8.2

8 4

9.1

8.5

8.1

8.4

9.1

8.6

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.7

13.5

10.3

10.5

8.3

5.3

3.8

8.1

1,140.2

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

1,162.7

Fourth quarter data are preliminary estivates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 26, 1993

24