Full text of National Economic Trends : March 1990
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s M a rc h 1990 P r o d u c e r a n d fo o d W h e n th e a n d v ie w e d m id d le in to th e a n d e x c lu d in g a n d a s h o w p r ic e s h a lf. o v e r 1 4 .1 s h a r p ly la r g e p e r s p e c t iv e , h o w e v e r , a e n d o f la s t a n d o f c h a n g e p e r io d . th e p e r c e n t y e a r . e n e r g y r e d u c tio n s . th is ro s e u n u s u a lly fo o d w h e n p r ic e s T h e s e R a te s s im ila r I V / 1 9 8 9 , t h e ir c o n s u m e r c o m p o n e n ts . T h e y 8 .3 th e v e r y t a b le b e lo w p r ic e a ls o r e f le c t ra te s p e r c e n t th e o f M g r o w th th e a n d ra te s M D e c e m b e r Ja n u a r y -od ucer th e ra te s th e G N P o f p r ic e s lo w e r w e r e o v e r o v e r th e im o f 1989- fa c t, la s t p lic it p r ic e th e a n d ju m p s th e p r ic e a n d h a lf r e fle c t o f tw o Ju n e 1 9 9 0 th e p e r c e n t P r i c e la r g e o v e r o f p ro d u c e r g r o w th p r e v io u s R a t e s in in c r e a s e 2 .8 o f c o n c e r n o f p r ic e s c o n s u m e r p r ic e 1 9 8 9 in f lu e n c e p e r c e n t th e ir w it h th e fix e d - w e ig h t o f s lo w e r a g g re g a te s in c lu d in g p r ic e y e a r in d e x — in 1 /1 9 8 7 d o w n fr o m p r io r g r o w th fr o m r e s p e c tiv e ly , e n e rg y in f la t io n . c o n s id e r a b ly in c r e a s e s , c o m p a r e d a n d o f o f a c c e le r a tin g s lo w e d m o n e ta ry 4 .5 th e in c r e a s e s d e fla to r th e in p ro s p e c t e n e rg y th ro u g h s h a r p ly fr o m y e a r s . C h a n g e 1989- D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 9 D e c e m b e r Ju n e 1987- 1 9 8 9 D e c e m b e r 1984- D e c e m b e r 1987 p r ic e s g o o d s F in is h e d 2 4 .1 % e n e rg y g o o d s F o o d E x c lu d in g C o n s u m e r A ll o f 2 b e c a u s e e m e r g e s ; s h a r p ly ra te s im p a c t l A n n u a l m is h e d s h o w s , fe ll a r ily p ro m p te d p ic tu r e m e a s u re s — in p r im h a v e d iffe r e n t d e c e le r a tio n s g r o w th Ja n u a r y , c o m p o n e n ts , b ro a d e r T h e s e a n n u a l a n d in A s p r ic e in in c r e a s e s fo o d an d e n e rg y 2 .6 % 5 .0 % 0 .6 % 3 6 3 .3 - 1 0 .2 2 7 .7 6 .2 5 .3 1 .1 1 .0 3 .3 4 .6 2 .5 3 .6 % 4 .8 % 7 .5 - 1 1 .3 p r ic e s it e m s 1 4 .1 % E n e rg y 8 1 .7 - 4 .7 2 6 .1 4 .5 5 .6 3 .3 7 .5 4 .1 4 .6 4 .1 F o o d E x c lu d in g fo o d an d e n e rg y II/ 8 9 - IV / 8 9 G N P d e fla to r G N P f ix e d - w e ig h t in d e x 3 .1 % 5 .3 - 3 .8 IV / 8 7 - II/ 8 9 3 .2 % 4 .1 % 3 .3 4 .6 IV / 8 4 - IV / 8 7 3 .3 - C o u rte n a y T H F E D E E R A L R E S E R V E liA X K o f N T . i j o r i s v ie w s expressed do not necessarily re fle ct official positions of the Federal Reserve System. C . S to n e T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 6-88 7-88 0.2 8-88 1.1 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 115*031 2.0 115*219 9-88 1.3 1.9 1.8 10-88 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.7 11-88 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.9 12-88 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.3 1-89 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 5.3 2-89 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.2 1.2 5-89 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.1 3.0 4-89 2.2 2.4 *2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.5 1.7 0.4 5-89 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.5 6-89 2.2 2.4 ?•« 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.4 4.3 115*393 115*647 116*012 116*141 116*640 116*757 117*047 117*084 117*132 117*542 117*436 7-89 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 -1.1 8-89 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 1.2 9-89 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 10-89 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.7 117*550 117*419 117*585 11-89 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.6 12-89 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 1-90 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.1 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 1.5 117*836 117*888 -0.3 117*863 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 2* 1990 P A Y R O L L E M P L O Y M E N T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 7-88 2.4 8-88 2.3 2.1 9-88 2.5 2.5 2.9 10-88 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 11-88 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.0 12-88 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.1 1-89 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.9 2-89 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.0 IN IT IA L MONTH OF PERSONS 3-89 4-89 THOUSANDS 2-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 105*768 105*954 106*207 106*475 106*824 107*097 107*442 107*711 3-89 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 4-89 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 5-89 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 6-89 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 7-89 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 8-89 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 9-89 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.3 10-89 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 107*888 108*101 2.3 108*310 108*607 1.8 108*767 108*887 109*096 109*171 11-89 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.1 12-89 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.1 1-90 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.1 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 109*452 109.548P 3.1 109»823P 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 INIT I A L M O N T H P- P R ELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 2» 1990 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERSONS MILLIONS OF SCALE PERSONS SOURCE * U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3Z. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UN EM PL OY M EN T RATE PERCENT S E A S O N A L L Y PERCENT A D J U S T E D 1 1 .0 10 1 0 .0 9.0 8 .0 7.0 6 .0 5.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JANUARY P R EP A R E D 3 BY FEDE RA L RE SE RV E BANK OF ST. LOUIS 4.0 C O N S U M E R PRICE IN D E X F O R A LL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S * ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL M O N T H 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1982-84*100 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 118.6 7-88 5.2 8-88 4.7 4.1 9-88 5.2 5.2 6.2 10-88 4.9 4.8 5.1 4.1 11-88 4.5 4.4 4.4 5.6 5.0 12-88 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.7 5.6 4.1 1-89 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.7 5.6 7.2 2-89 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.4 6.1 5.1 5-89 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.6 6.1 119.0 119.6 120.0 120.5 120.7 121.4 121.9 122.5 125.5 4-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.6 6.4 7.1 8.1 5-89 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.0 6.4 6.5 6-89 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.0 2.9 7-89 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.0 5.4 5.9 8-89 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.0 2.9 2.5 1.9 9-89 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.1 5.8 2.9 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.9 10-89 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.1 5.4 5.1 5.2 2.9 4.4 125.8 5.0 124.1 124.5 124.5 0.0 124.8 125.4 5.9 11-89 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.1 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.2 4.9 5.9 12-89 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.2 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.9 125.8 1-90 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 6.5 7.1 7.5 9.4 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 126.5 14.1 127.7 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 IN IT IA L MONTH ■REVISED FROM 1985. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 21. 1990 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D G O O D S* (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1982 » 100 5-89 6-89 7-89 7-88 8.1 8-88 6.5 4.5 9-88 6.1 5.1 5.7 10-88 5.1 4.1 5.9 2.2 11-88 5.0 4.2 4.1 5.5 4.5 12-88 4.7 4.0 5.9 5.5 5.9 3.3 1-89 6.0 5.6 5.8 5.9 7.1 8.5 15.9 2-89 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.5 7.5 8.3 10.8 7.8 5-89 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.9 7.6 9.0 6.7 5.5 4-89 6.5 6.1 6.5 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.7 7.0 6.6 7.7 5-89 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.7 7.5 7.8 8.7 7.5 7.5 8.3 8.8 6-89 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.4 6.2 5.7 5.8 4.9 1.1 7-89 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.7 4.4 5.7 5.2 1.8 -1.6 -4.1 8-89 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.5 2.5 1.9 0.5 -2.1 -5.6 -3.1 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 108.2 108.6 109.1 109.5 109.7 110.0 111.2 111.9 112.4 115.1 115.9 114.0 115.6 113.5 9-89 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.9 5.4 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.4 2.7 8.8 10-89 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.2 5.8 5.5 2.8 1.7 1.9 5.9 7.6 6.5 11-89 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.9 5.5 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.7 5.2 5.4 5.7 12-89 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.7 5.2 2.4 2.6 4.1 5.9 5.0 4.5 7.6 1-90 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 4.9 5.5 7.2 9.4 9.5 10.5 15.6 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 114.1 114.7 1.1 114.8 115.5 24.1 117.6 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S FE B R U A R Y 9» 1990 4 P R IC E S * RA T I O SCALE SEASONALLY 1982-100 135 R A T I O SCALE 1982-100 AD JUSTED 125 1 15 105 95 .SS n o 100 90 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 CONSUUER P R IC ES DATA ARE ON A I982-84 i I00 BASE CPI-U OATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATED RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE -FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« JANUARY * REVISED FROM 1985 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS * RATI O SCALE 1982-100 P R O D U C E R P R I C E S RATI O SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SCALE 1982-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« JANUARY « R E V ISE D FROM 1985 PR E PA R E D BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S * ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 1982 « 100 IN IT IA L MONTH 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 112.8 7-88 11.3 8-88 9.5 7.7 9-88 10.8 10.5 13.5 10-88 8.3 7.3 7.1 1.1 11-88 7.7 6.8 6.5 3.2 5.4 12-88 6.7 5.8 5.4 2.8 3.7 2.1 1-89 8.1 7.6 7.6 6.1 7.9 9.2 16.7 2-89 8.3 7.9 7.9 6.8 8.3 9.3 13.1 9.6 5-89 8.2 7.8 7.8 6.9 8.1 8.8 11.2 8.5 4-89 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.6 3.5 0.5 -5.9 5-89 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.6 4.2 2.4 0.0 6.3 6-89 5.5 4.9 4.7 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 1.9 0.0 -2.3 -0.5 113.5 114.7 114.8 115.3 115.5 117.0 117.9 118.6 7.4 118.0 118.6 117.9 -6.9 118.1 7-89 5.2 4.7 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 1.9 0.4 -1.3 0.3 -2.5 2.1 8-89 5.1 4.7 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.2 1.0 -0.2 1.3 -0.3 3.1 4.1 9-89 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 -0.8 0.2 -1.3 0.7 0.0 -4.0 10-89 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.9 2.2 4.7 5.5 6.2 118.5 118.1 119.7 17.5 120.8 11-89 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.9 3.3 2.8 4.1 3.7 6.0 7.0 8.0 14.5 11.6 12-89 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.2 3.7 3.3 4.5 4.2 6.2 7.0 7.8 12.0 9.4 7.2 1-90 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 6.8 6.9 9.0 10.2 11.5 15.7 15.2 17.0 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 121.5 27.7 124.0 IN IT IA L MONTH «REVISED FROM 1985. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 9* 1990 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D IN G FO O D S * (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1982 * 100 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 106.6 7-88 7.0 8-88 5.2 3.4 9-88 4.6 3.4 3.4 106.9 107.2 107.4 10-88 4.0 3.0 2.8 2.3 11-88 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.6 12-88 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.6 107.8 4.5 108.2 1-89 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.9 8.0 11.7 2-89 5.7 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.4 8.4 10.4 9.2 3-89 5.6 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.4 6.8 4.5 4-89 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.6 8.2 9.1 8.3 7.9 11.4 5-89 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.7 9.6 9.1 9.0 11.4 11.3 6-89 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.5 7.9 7.5 8.6 7.2 3.3 7-89 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.3 5.4 4.6 4.7 2.5 -1.6 -6.2 8-89 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.6 2.7 2.4 0.3 -3.2 -6.2 -6.2 9-89 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.0 4.4 4.4 3.0 1.1 0.4 3.8 14.9 10-89 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 4.7 4.1 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.8 3.3 8.3 109.2 110.0 110.4 111.4 112.4 112.7 112.1 111.5 112.8 2.1 113.0 11-89 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.4 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 1.9 4.7 0.0 -2.1 12-89 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.4 3.0 5.5 2.5 2.7 7.7 1-90 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.6 4.9 4.2 4.3 6.2 8.8 7.4 9.1 15.2 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 ■REVISED F R O M 1985. 112.8 113.5 23.3 115.5 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 INITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 9. 1990 6 I N D U S T R I A L RATIO P R O D U C T I O N SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY AOJÜSTEO 1977-100 SCALE 1977-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JANUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 6-88 IN IT IA L MONTH 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1977 « 100 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 158.0 7-88 14.0 8-88 9.1 4.4 9-88 6.5 2.6 0.9 10-88 6.5 4.1 4.0 7.2 11-88 6.1 4.2 4.1 5.8 4.4 12-88 5.8 4.2 4.2 5.5 4.4 4.4 1-89 5.5 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.1 5.9 2-89 4.4 3.1 2.9 5.5 2.4 1.7 0.4 -2.5 3-89 4.1 2.9 2.7 5.1 2.5 1.7 0.9 -0.4 1.7 4-89 4.6 3.6 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.1 2.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 5-89 4.1 3.1 5.0 5.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 5.2 5.9 -0.8 6-89 4.0 5.2 5.0 5.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.1 5.2 5.7 1.5 5.4 7-89 3.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 2.4 2.6 0.6 1.5 -0.8 8-89 3.8 5.0 2.9 5.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.9 5.1 1.7 2.6 2.1 5.2 9-89 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.7 -1.7 10-89 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -2.9 -4.1 11-89 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 -0.8 -0.4 5.4 12-89 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.6 5.0 1-90 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -1.5 -1.4 -2.7 -2.9 -2.5 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 158.5 158.6 159.4 159.9 140.4 140.8 5.5 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 142.0 141.9 142.5 142.5 141.8 142.2 2.6 -5.4 -12.7 142.5P 140.9P I N ITIAL M O N T H P- P R E L IMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LO UIS FE B R U A R Y 16» 1990 7 P E R S O N A L RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS IN C O M E RATIO MONTHLY T O T A L S AT ANNUAL RA T E S OF DOLLARS TRILLIONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4. 4.6 4. 4,2 3. 3.8 3 . 3.4 3. 3.0 2 . 2 .6 2 . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 2 .2 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L IN C O M E (C o m p o u n d e d A r a s a i R a t e s o f C fe a a g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 6—88 7-88 9.4 8-88 6.8 IN IT IA L MONTH 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 BILLION S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 12-89 11-89 10-89 9-89 4*079.8 4*094.2 4.5 4*118.6 9-88 7.0 5.8 7.4 10-88 10.0 10.2 15.5 19.6 11-88 7.2 6.7 7.5 7.6 -5.5 12-88 7.9 7.6 8.4 8.8 5.8 11.3 4*180.4 4*168.9 4*206.3 4*273.1 1-89 9.7 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.2 16.0 20.8 2-89 10.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 10.5 15.5 17.5 15.8 4*319.5 5-89 10.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 10.7 14.4 15.5 12.9 12.1 4-89 10.1 10.2 10.9 11.4 10.1 15.0 15.5 11.1 9.8 7.5 5-89 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.5 9.0 11.2 11.2 8.9 7.5 5.0 2.5 6-89 9.1 9.1 9.5 9.8 8.6 10.4 10.5 8.5 7.0 5.5 4.2 5.9 7-89 9.0 8.9 9.5 9.5 8.5 10.0 9.9 8.1 7.0 5.8 5.5 6.6 7.4 8-89 8.6 8.5 8.9 9.0 8 .0 9.5 9.1 7.5 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 9-89 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.5 7.5 8.6 8.4 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.9 4.6 5.2 2.8 10-89 8 .5 8.2 8.5 8.6 7.7 8 .7 8.5 7.2 6.4 5.6 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.5 6.2 9.7 11-89 8.5 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.0 9.0 8.8 7.7 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.9 8.0 10.8 11.8 8 .8 8 .6 7.5 6.9 6.5 6.2 6.7 6.9 6.8 7.6 9.2 9.0 6.2 8.9 8.7 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.5 7.5 8.0 9.4 9.3 8.0 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 12-89 8 .5 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.9 1-90 8 .4 8.4 8.6 8.7 8 .0 6-88 7-88 8-88 4*360.7 4*387.1 4*396.5 4*417.5 4*445.7 4*456.9 4*467.1 4*501.8 4*545.9 4*566.6 9.9 4.602.5P 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 INITIAL M O N T H P R E L IMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S M A R C H 1* 1990 8 RETAIL SALES RATIO RATIO SCALE B IL L IO N S 1982 OF DOLLARS 1983 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1984 1985 1986 B IL L IO N S 1987 1988 1989 SCALE OF DOLLARS 1990 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* DECEMBER, JANUARY ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E T A IL S A L E S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 IN IT IA L MONTH DOLLARS 2-89 5-89 4-89 MILLIONS OF 5-89 6-89 7-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8-89 155*741 7-88 6*2 8-88 5.5 0.5 9-88 1.1 -1.4 -5.5 10-88 7.5 7.6 11.4 28.5 11-88 8.2 8.7 11.5 19.8 11.9 12-88 6.5 6.5 8.1 12.1 4.9 -1.7 1-89 6.5 6.5 7.5 10.4 5.0 1.8 5.4 2-89 4.9 4.7 5.4 7.2 2.6 -0.4 0.5 -4.5 5-89 4.4 4.2 4.7 6.1 2.2 -0.1 0.5 -1.9 0.8 4-89 5.7 5.6 6.5 7.7 4.6 5.2 4.5 4.2 8.9 17.6 5-89 6.1 6.0 6.7 8.0 5.4 4.5 5.6 5.6 9.2 15.7 10.0 6-89 5.5 5.4 5.9 7.0 4.6 5.6 4.6 4.4 6.8 8.8 4.7 -0.4 7-89 5.8 5.8 6.2 7.5 5.1 4.5 5.2 5.2 7.5 8.9 6.2 4.5 9.5 8-89 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.6 5.8 5.1 6.0 6.1 7.9 9.4 7.5 6.7 10.4 11.5 9-89 6.0 6.0 6.4 7.5 5.6 4.9 5.7 5.8 7.5 8.5 6.7 5.9 8.1 7.5 10-89 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.9 2.9 1.5 2.0 -0.4 155*800 155*421 158*259 159*561 159*556 159*970 159*428 159*516 141*415 142*545 142*500 145*555 144*860 145*293 5.6 -5.8 -14.4 145*426 11-89 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.6 4.1 5.5 5.9 5.8 4.8 5.5 5.6 2.6 5.2 1.7 -1.5 -5.7 8.5 12-89 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.2 4.0 4.4 2.8 1.8 2.2 0.8 -1.7 -5.4 2.7 -2.7 1-90 5.2 5.2 5.4 6.0 4.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 5.5 5.9 4.7 4.1 4.7 4.0 2.6 2.5 8.5 8.6 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 144*587 144.058P 21.5 146»592E 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 INITIAL M O N T H P- P RE L I M I N A R Y E- E S T I M A T E D P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS F E B R U A R Y IS* 1990 9 H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SE C T O R ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TE RMINAL Q UARTER INITIAL Q U A R T E R 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1977*100 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 173.5 2-85 4.0 3-85 4.8 5.6 4-85 5.3 6.0 175.9 178.6 6.3 181.0 1-86 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.5 2-86 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 3-86 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.7 4-86 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.1 1-87 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 1.9 2-87 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.3 2.6 3-87 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.8 4.9 4-87 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.8 6.0 1-88 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.9 4.9 2.7 2-88 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.1 183.0 185.1 187.4 188.3 189.5 191.8 195.1 7.1 196.4 199.1 5.6 201.9 3-88 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.7 5.7 5.7 4-88 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.3 1-89 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.8 2-89 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.9 3-89 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 4.6 4-89 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 6.0 5.6 6.5 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 204.5 206.9 210.4 212.8 216.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 5» 1989 O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1977«100 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 107.1 2-85 3.0 3-85 3.2 3.4 4-85 2.5 2.3 1.1 108.0 108.3 110.3 1-86 3.8 4.0 4.3 7.6 2-86 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 -0.7 3-86 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 -1.3 -1.8 4-86 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.7 1-87 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 2-87 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.6 3-87 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.7 4-87 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 2.9 1-88 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 2-88 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.2 -2.1 3-88 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 2.9 4-88 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.4 1-89 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 1.1 2-89 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 3-89 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 i. 3 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 4-89 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.0 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 110.1 109.6 109.8 110.0 0.7 1.6 110.7 111.7 112.5 113.2 112.6 113.4 113.5 113.8 114.2 114.7 114.7 I N I TIAL Q U A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 5» 1989 10 PR O D U C TIVITY, RATIO COM PENSATION, AND LABOR SCALE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1977-100 7 -1— 0 LI1982 COSTS RATIO --------------1 — 1983 SCALE 1977-100 I----------------------------------U --LI1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 4TH OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U N IT L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S SE C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 2-85 0.7 3-85 1.7 2.7 4-85 2.7 3.7 4.7 1-86 1.5 1.8 1.4 2-86 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.7 5.5 3-86 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.2 5.9 6.4 4-86 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.3 5.2 4.1 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1977*100 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 161.9 163.0 164.9 -1.9 164.1 166.3 168.9 170.6 1-87 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.0 4.3 3.9 2.7 1.4 2-87 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 3-87 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 4-87 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.6 171.2 171.3 171.6 4.5 173.5 1-88 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.2 0.0 2-88 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.3 4.1 4.0 8.1 3-88 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.5 5.3 2.5 4-88 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.9 5.2 3.8 5.0 1-89 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.8 4.4 3.8 2-89 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.9 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.9 3-89 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.9 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.3 4-89 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 6.2 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 173.5 176.9 178.0 180.2 181.9 184.1 185.6 188.4 INITIAL Q UARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 5» 1989 11 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5-89 IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-85 5 .6 5-85 6.5 7.0 4-85 6.2 6.6 6.2 1-86 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.5 2-86 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.5 5-86 5 .5 5.5 5.1 4.7 4-86 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.6 1-87 5.7 5.8 5.6 5 .4 6.2 6.5 8.8 2-87 6.0 6.1 5.9 5 .9 6.7 7.0 8.5 8.2 5-87 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.1 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.5 8.4 4-87 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.6 8.5 8.7 9.0 1-88 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 6.5 2-88 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.5 8.6 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5.979.0 4.047.0 4*107.9 4.181.5 1.5 4*194.7 5.7 5.7 4*255.5 4.2 4*297.5 4*588.8 4*475.9 4*566.6 4*665.8 4.759.8 4.858.5 5-88 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.6 8.1 8 .0 8.0 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.5 4-88 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 4*926.9 1-89 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.7 7.9 2-89 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 5-89 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.2 4-89 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.5 4.4 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5*017.5 5*115.1 5*201.7 5*281.0 5*357.6P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 28. 1990 G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 2-85 2.4 5-85 5.5 4.1 4-85 5.2 5.5 5.0 1-86 4.0 4.5 4.7 6.6 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5*599.2 5*655.8 5*662.4 5*721.1 2-86 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.3 -1.8 5-86 2.5 2 .5 2.1 1.8 -0.5 0.8 4-86 2.5 2 .5 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.6 5*704.6 5*712.4 2.5 5*755.6 1-87 2.8 2 .9 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.8 5.8 5.4 2-87 5.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 5.2 4.0 4.9 4.4 5*785.0 5*825.5 5-87 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 2.7 5.6 4.5 5.0 4.8 5.5 4-87 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.6 1-88 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.0 2-88 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.9 5.7 3*872.8 3*955.6 5*974.8 4*010.7 5-88 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 5.6 5.4 5.2 4-88 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.8 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 5.4 5.2 2.9 2.7 1-89 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.8 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.7 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.5 5.7 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.5 5-89 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 4.0 3.9 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.8 5.0 4-89 5.5 5.5 3.3 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.7 3.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.9 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5—88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4*042.7 4*069.4 4*106.8 4*152.5 4*162.9 4*172.4P I N ITIAL QUAR T E R P - P R E L I MINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28. 1990 12 GROSS RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF NATIONAL PRODUCT QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 8 0 8 6 3.2 0 2 . 8 2.6 1982 1983 1984 986 985 1987 S O U R C E : P E R C E N T A G E S A R E L A T E S T P L O T T E D » D A T A A N N U A L R A T E S 4 T H O F Q U A R T E R C H A N G E FO R P E R IO D S 1988 U . S . 1989 D E P A R T M E N T 1990 O F C O M M ER C E IN D IC A T E D . P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS G E N E R A L RATIO P R I C E I N D E X * SCALE RATIO SCALE 1982-100 1982 1982-100 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IM P L IC IT P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-85 3.3 3*85 2.9 2.6 4—85 3.1 2.9 3.3 1-86 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 2-86 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.9 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1982 « 100 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 110.6 111.3 112.2 112.4 113.2 3-86 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 4.0 5.0 4-86 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 1.8 1-87 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.2 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.5 3.8 3-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.3 2.8 4-87 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.4 1-88 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2-88 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.4 4.8 3-88 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.6 4.4 4-88 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.7 1-89 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 2-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.6 3-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 4-89 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.2 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 114.6 115.1 116.0 117.1 117.9 118.6 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 124.5 125.9 126.9 127.9P IN ITIAL QUA R T E R P- P R E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T ERMINAL QUARTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 2-85 1-85 2-85 7.1 5-85 8.5 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 1-88 4-87 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2*599.5 9.9 2*661.4 2*700.4 4-85 7.7 7.9 6.0 1-86 7.0 7.0 5.6 5 1 2-86 6.4 6.2 5.0 4 5 4.0 5-86 7.0 6.9 6.2 6 2 6.8 9.8 2*754.5 2*761.0 2*826.0 2*868.5 4-86 6.8 6.8 6.2 6 2 6.6 7.9 6.2 1-87 6.8 6.8 6.2 6 5 6.6 7.5 6.4 6.6 2-87 7.2 7.2 6.9 7 0 7.4 8.5 7.8 8.6 2*914.7 2*989.4 10.7 5*055.9 5-87 7.4 7.5 7.2 7 5 7.7 8.5 8.1 8.8 9.9 9.2 4-87 7.1 7.1 6.8 6 9 7.1 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.8 6.4 1-88 7.2 7.2 6.9 7 1 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.1 6.1 8.7 2-88 7.2 7.2 7.0 7 1 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.6 8.0 5*085.5 5.6 5*148.1 5*204.9 7.4 5*265.4 5-88 7.2 7.5 7.0 7 1 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.5 6.8 7.9 7.5 7.5 4-88 7.5 7.5 7.1 7 2 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.5 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.6 5*524.0 5*581.4 1-89 7.5 7.5 7.1 7 2 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 2-89 7.5 7.5 7.1 7 2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.6 5-89 7.5 7.5 7.1 7 2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 4-89 7.2 7.2 7.0 7 1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.9 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.2 4.8 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5*444.1 5*508.1 5*549.5P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 28» 1990 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 2-88 1-88 5-88 1-89 4-88 2-89 5-89 2*557.4 2-85 5.2 5-85 5.0 6.8 4-85 5.9 4.5 1.9 2*575.9 2*586.9 1-86 4.0 4.2 5.0 4.1 2-86 5.9 4.1 5.2 5.8 5.6 2*410.9 5-86 4.1 4.5 5.7 4.4 4.5 4-86 5.9 4.0 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 2.2 1-87 5.4 5.4 2.9 5.1 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.1 2-87 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.5 2.4 4.8 5-87 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 2.9 5.2 4.8 4.7 4-87 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.0 -0.7 1-88 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.2 2.9 5.0 5.7 5.4 2.7 6.2 2-88 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.8 2.9 5.5 5.2 2.7 4.4 2.5 5-88 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.5 5.2 2.8 4.0 2.9 5.5 4-88 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.4 5.2 2.9 5.8 5.0 5.2 2*452.4 5.4 2*464.4 2*477.8 2*478.5 2*507.7 2*556.5 2*552.5 2*570.8 2*586.8 2*608.1 5.0 2*627.7 1-89 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 2.8 2.9 5.2 5.0 2.7 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.0 2-89 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 5.1 2.9 2.6 5.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 5-89 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.6 4-89 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 5.1 2.9 2.7 5.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 5.0 0.4 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2*641.0 2*655.7 2*690.1 2*692.6P INIT I A L QUARTER P R E L IMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1990 15 G R O S S PRIV A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o a n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 BI L L I O N S O F DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-8$ 5-89 8.4 652.5 -5.9 -14.8 626.7 4-85 5.1 0.6 18.7 1-86 7.0 6.5 19.1 2-86 2.2 0.8 6.5 1.0 -14.7 5-86 0.9 -0.6 5.4 -1.5 -10.5 -5.7 4-86 0.8 -0.4 2.8 -0.8 -6.8 -2.5 0.7 1-87 2.6 1.8 4.9 2.5 -1.6 5.2 8.0 15.8 2-87 5.1 2.4 5.1 5.0 0.0 4.1 7.6 11.2 6.7 5-87 5.5 2.7 5.1 5.5 0.9 4.5 7.0 9.1 5.9 5.2 4-87 6.0 5.7 8.5 7.1 5.4 9.2 12.4 15.6 15.5 20.1 1-88 4.5 4.1 6.2 4.9 5.2 6.1 8.2 9.7 8.5 8.8 10.7 -10.7 2-88 5.0 4.7 6.7 5.5 4.1 6.7 8.6 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.8 -0.5 11.2 5-88 5.5 5.5 7.2 6.2 4.9 7.4 9.1 10.4 9.5 10.1 11.5 5.8 11.9 12.7 4-88 4.5 4.2 5 .8 4.8 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 0.4 4.4 1.2 -9.2 654.1 19.4 685.8 657.2 647.7 648.8 675.1 684.1 692.8 57.1 749.7 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 1-89 4.7 4.5 6.0 5.1 4.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.9 7.0 7.5 2.1 5.6 5.8 -0.4 9.2 2-89 4.6 4.4 5.8 5.0 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 2.2 5.0 5.6 0.7 6.0 2.8 769.6 5-89 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.8 5.8 5.4 6.4 6.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 2.2 4.5 5.5 1.0 4.7 2.5 2.1 4-89 4.1 5.9 5.1 4.5 5.5 4.8 5.6 6.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 1.6 5.5 2.2 0.5 2.8 0.7 -0.4 -2.8 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 775.0 779.1 775.6P IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 28» 1990 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o a n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 647.5 8.6 -5.0 -17.0 618.1 648.0 4-85 2.9 0.2 20.8 1-86 6.6 5.9 19.6 2-86 1.0 -0.8 5.5 -1.8 -18.5 5-86 -1.0 -2.8 1.1 -4.7 -14.5 -10.5 4-86 -1.7 -5.4 -0.4 1-87 0.9 -0.1 5.0 2-87 1.6 0.7 5.5 5-87 2.5 1.6 4.2 4-87 4.8 4.4 7.1 18.5 676.1 -5.1 -11.8 642.5 625.1 615.2 -8.5 -6.2 -4.4 0.8 6.9 21.8 0.9 -2.5 2.2 6.8 15.9 6.6 2.1 -0.4 5.6 7.5 12.4 8.0 9.5 5.5 5.8 8.0 12.1 17.2 15.7 20.6 52.8 9.4 10.5 10.8 -0.2 646.5 1-88 5.7 5.2 5.5 5.9 2.5 5.6 8.6 11.8 2-88 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.9 2.4 5.4 7.9 10.4 5-88 4.2 5.9 5.9 4.6 5.5 6.1 8.5 10.6 8.8 4-88 5.0 2.6 4.5 5.0 1.7 4.0 5.8 7.4 5.4 1-89 5.5 2.9 4.5 5.5 2.2 4.5 5.9 7.5 5.6 2-89 5.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 1.9 5.9 5.5 6.5 5-89 5.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 2.0 5.8 5.0 4-89 2.7 2.4 5.7 2.7 1.7 5.5 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 656.7 671.7 721.1 707.0 -7.6 715.5 8.4 -2.1 5.7 9.5 9.2 2.5 7.7 11.8 5.5 4.4 -1.7 0.4 -1.2 -12.7 5.5 4.8 0.0 2.0 1.4 -5.4 6.9 4.9 4.7 4.0 -0.1 1.4 0.9 -2.5 5.0 -0.7 6.1 4.7 4.5 5.9 0.5 1.7 1.2 -1.2 2.9 1.0 2.7 4.4 5.4 4.0 5.7 5.1 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -1.5 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -2.5 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 8.2 8.6 755.6 709.1 721.1 719.8 724.6 720.0P INITIAL Q U ARTER PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1990 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) T ERMINAL QU ARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-65 2-85 9 1 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-86 5-8« 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5-89 801.7 5-85 14 7 20.« 4-85 12 5 14.2 8.1 840.2 1-86 8 4 8.2 2.4 -5.0 2-8« 8 « 8.4 4 .« 3.0 9.2 5-86 8 0 7.8 4.8 5.7 7.2 5.2 4-86 7 4 7.1 4 .« 3.8 «.1 4.6 4 .0 1-87 7 5 7.5 5.2 4.7 «.7 5.8 6.1 8.5 2-87 7 2 «.9 5.1 4 .« «.2 5.5 5 .« «.4 4.4 5-87 7 2 7.0 5.4 5.0 «.4 5.8 «.0 «.7 5.9 7.5 4-87 7 «.9 5.5 5.2 «.4 5.9 «.1 6.6 6.0 6.8 6.5 856.7 850.5 869.5 880.5 888.9 906.9 916.8 955.2 947.5 945.7 1-88 6 «.2 4.8 4.5 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.5 4.2 2.7 -0.8 2-88 6 «.2 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.5 4.7 4.7 5.9 2.7 6.2 5-88 5 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.8 5.6 2.7 1.6 2.7 -0.6 960.1 958.6 1*011.4 4-88 7 «.9 5.9 5.7 «.5 6.2 « .4 «.7 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.7 9.4 11.0 25.9 1-89 6 « .5 5 .« 5.4 «.1 5.8 5.9 «.1 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 7.4 7.8 12.5 1.8 2-89 6 «.5 5.7 5.5 «.2 5.9 «.0 «.2 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.5 7.6 10.5 4.4 6.9 5-89 6 «.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.5 6.5 8.4 5.6 4.6 2.2 4-89 6 5 «.5 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.6 6.5 6.6 8 .0 4.4 5.5 4.5 6.7 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-8« 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 1»016.0 1»055.2 1*038.9 1»056.OP IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 28» 1990 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 3-85 2-85 6.5 3-85 13.0 19.8 4-85 9.0 10.5 1.6 1-86 5.5 5.1 -1.5 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 716.7 749.8 752.7 -4.5 744.1 2-86 6.3 6.2 2.0 2.5 9.5 3-86 5.6 5.4 2.1 2.2 5.8 2.1 4-86 5.6 5.4 2.8 5.1 5.8 5.9 5.8 1-87 4.9 4.7 2.4 2.5 4.4 2.7 5.0 0.5 761.2 765.2 776.0 776.6 2-87 4.3 4.0 1.9 2.0 5.5 1.8 1.7 -0.5 -0.9 3-87 4.3 4.0 2.2 2.5 5.5 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.8 4 5 4-87 4.3 4.1 2.5 2.6 5.6 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.7 4 5 1-88 3.2 2.9 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.9 -0.1 -0.2 0 0 -2.1 -8.5 2-88 3.5 5.0 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.7 1 0 -0.1 -2.5 4.1 3-88 2.8 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0 1 -1.0 -2.7 0.2 -5.6 4-88 5.6 5.4 2.3 2.5 5.0 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.2 1-89 5.2 5.0 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 2-89 3.5 5.1 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 3-89 5.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 4-89 2.9 2.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 774.9 783.5 4.5 792.1 775.1 783.0 775.9 2 7 2.5 1.8 5.4 «.1 1.5 18 1.4 0.8 5.2 2.9 6.2 -3.3 1.9 2 3 1.9 1.5 5.6 5.5 6.0 1.0 1 7 1.4 0.9 2.6 2.5 5.8 -0.2 1.4 -2.4 1 7 1.4 1.0 2.4 2.1 3.3 0.2 1.4 -0.6 1.3 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 16.7 806.4 799.7 5.4 810.3 805.3 807.9P INITIAL QUARTER P R E L I MINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1990 17 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL Q U A RTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-85 15.1 5-85 5.5 -1.5 4-85 6.6 5.5 8 .6 1-86 7.0 5.1 8.6 8 .5 2-86 6.9 5.5 7.9 7.5 6.5 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5-89 2.850.7 2*840.0 2.899.5 2*959.2 5*006.5 5-86 6.2 4.8 6.5 5.8 4.4 2.4 4-86 6.0 4.9 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.8 5.5 1-87 6^6 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 8.0 10.8 2-87 5.8 4.9 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 5.0 4.9 -0.6 5-87 6.5 5.6 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.6 7.0 5.2 11.5 4-87 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 7.6 11.9 12.4 1-88 6.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.1 7.4 10.5 9.7 7.0 2-88 6.9 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.6 8.0 7.4 9.5 8.9 7.1 7.2 5-88 7.1 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.8 8.1 7.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 8.2 9.1 4-88 7.2 6.8 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 7.9 9.5 8.9 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.9 5*024.5 5*065.4 5*142.8 5*158.1 5*225.5 5*519.4 5*576.4 5*455.9 5*511.7 5*587.4 1-89 7.5 7.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 8.5 8.6 8 .5 9.7 9.4 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.9 2-89 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.1 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 6.5 5-89 7.4 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 8 .0 9.0 8.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 6.5 6.5 4-89 7.4 7.1 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.9 8.1 7.9 8.8 8.5 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 6.7 6.8 7.2 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 5*689.5 5*747.7 5*806.8 5.875.4P IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 28. 1990 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-85 2-85 8 .9 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 5-87 2-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 BILLION S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5-89 2.565.5 2.555.4 5-85 2.1 -4.5 4-85 2.8 -0.1 4.4 1-86 4.0 2.4 5.9 7.4 2-86 4.4 5.5 6.0 6.8 6.2 5-86 5.4 2.5 4.0 5.9 2.2 -1.7 4-86 5.1 2.1 5.5 5.5 1.9 -0.2 1.4 1-87 5.2 2.4 5.6 5.4 2.4 1.2 2.7 4.0 2-87 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.8 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -5.8 5-87 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.2 6.7 4-87 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 5.0 2.7 7.2 7.8 1-88 5.2 2.7 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.2 4.6 2-88 5.1 2.7 5.5 5.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.5 2.4 5-88 5.2 2.8 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.9 4-88 5.5 2.9 5.5 5.4 5.1 2.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.0 5.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.4 6.6 2-89 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 2.9 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.5 5.9 5.8 4.1 5.9 5.7 0.8 5-89 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 5.9 4.2 4.0 5.9 2.6 4.4 4-89 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.5 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 2.6 5.6 2.7 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2.562.8 2.609.2 2*648.6 2*657.5 2*646.2 2*672.5 2*652.5 2*675.6 2*726.2 2*757.2 2*775.5 2*806.4 2*855.9 2*881.7 2*887.6 2*919.2 2*958.5P IN ITIAL Q U A R T E R PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28. 1990 18 C O R P O R À T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T ERMINAL QU ARTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL Q U ARTER 4-04 1-85 -59.4 2-85 -20.4 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« 4-8« 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 122.8 4 .« 124.2 5-85 -9.5 10.7 17.1 4-85 -2.9 15.7 18.5 1-8« -15.4 2-8« -15.9 5-8« -9.9 -5.8 -5.4 -10.5 -18.« 4-8« -«.8 -0.8 -1.7 9.7 18.4 18.8 1-87 -2.5 5.4 5.5 1.1 -2.5 1«.4 24.9 28.5 2-87 0.1 5.8 5.9 4.4 2.1 18.4 25.4 27.9 52.7 2 « .7 5-87 2.5 7.8 8 .2 7.1 5.4 19.9 25.9 28.0 51.2 27.4 28.1 4-87 2.5 7.5 7.5 «.5 4.9 17.1 21.5 22.2 25.1 18.1 14.1 1.« 1-88 4.4 9.2 9.« 8.9 7.7 19.0 25.1 25.9 25.0 21.7 20.1 1«*5 55.0 2-88 5.5 9.9 10.4 9.8 8.8 19.0 22.5 25.2 25.9 21.1 19.7 17.1 25.« 18.7 5-88 «.0 10.5 10.8 10.5 9.4 18.7 21.8 22.2 22.7 20.2 19.0 1«.8 22.5 17.5 1«.0 4-88 «.0 10.0 10.4 9.9 9.1 17.4 20.1 20.5 20.5 18.0 1«.« 14.5 17.9 15.5 10.7 129.2 19.9 155.2 -8.1 -11.9 -25.« -51.4 112.9 -7 .« -10.5 -18.1 -52.4 111.2 -5.9 5.4 -5.1 -10.5 18.0 115.9 121.0 151.4 59.1 159.4 148.5 148.9 159.9 1««.9 175.2 175.« 5.7 1-89 5.5 9.0 9.5 8.8 8.0 15.4 17.« 17.5 17.4 14.9 15.4 11.1 15.1 8 .« 5.4 2-89 5.5 « .« «.7 «.1 5.1 11.« 15.2 12.7 12.1 9.5 7.5 4.8 5.4 0.« -5.5 5-89 1.9 4.9 4.9 4.2 5.2 8 .9 10.2 9 .« 8 .8 «.1 4.0 1.4 1.5 -5.2 -7.0 -12.0 -17.2 -22.9 -19.9 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-8« 5-8« 4-8« 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 0.5 175.« -4.5 1«1.1 -9.2 -15.8 -25.8 5-88 4-88 1-89 152.4P 2-89 IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS FEBRUARY 28» 1990 H IS T O N A T IO N A L E s t i m o f C u r r e n t J u N I P A l y r e s p T h e B u l e s s i n 1 9 8 6 , e N a t i o n F o r W e a l t h l y D e p a r t m e n t t a t i s r t h D o t h e D f e t i c e r a n C o m m r J u l y f o r l T I P A a b O F t h e r e g A C C O U N T S u l a r p u b l i s h e d 1 9 8 4 a n d S u r v e y s e r i e s A c c o u n t s q i n u o f f o C r a r t e r l y t h e 1 9 8 5 D A T A J u a r e u r r e n t t h e w r i t e U r e s e n 1 9 8 9 B u s i n a r e n i t e d n a l y s i s , p t a t i o n S u r v e y p u b l i s h e d 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 o f p l y i n o f t h e e s s , u b l i s h e d S t a t e i n s . l e s . a t i o n W S O U R C E S P R O D U C T 1 9 8 8 N P r o d u c t ( B E - 5 e r c e , i n a r e 1 9 8 3 , a n d i n f o r m i v i s i o f o a t e s a n d A N D s e r i e s a t a 1 9 8 7 In c o m IN C O M E 1 9 8 6 - 8 9 :1 1 E s t i m a l f u r r e s s . J u S f o f o c t i v e l y . 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 : a n d a t e s t a b R IC A L 4 ) , a n d p B u r e a u a s h i n g t o n , r i c e s , o f E c o n o m D . C . 19 ic 2 0 2 3 0 . t o A t h e N a t i o U n . S . a l In c o m e INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY MA NUFACTURING AND TRADE SE A S O N A L L Y SALES A D JU S T E D 1 .7 2 72 1 .6 8 68 1 .6 4 64 1 .6 0 60 56 56 52 52 1 .5 2 48 48 44 44 40 40 36 36 1976 19 7 7 1978 19 7 9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SO U R C E : ¡"B E G IN N IN G IN SH A D ED A R E A S L A T E S T D A TA 1 9 8 2 , IN V E N T O R Y R E P R E S E N T P L O T T E D : DATA P E R IO D S D EC EM B ER OF R E F L E C T B U S IN E S S C H A N G ES IN E S T IM A T IO N 1987 1988 U .S .D E P A R T M E N T 19 8 9 O F 1990 CO M M ERCE P R O C E D U R E S . R E C E S S IO N S . P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED 2 0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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