Full text of National Economic Trends : March 1989
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s March 1989 T h e such current records e c o n o m i c start. a n n u a l rate. S o m e F r o m to its r e c e n t Federal real G N P fourth w h i c h quarter billion (national i n c o m e a n d for expenditures, several b y S u c h are m o r e is t h e longest quarter of peacetime 1988, real expansion G N P since e x p a n d e d c h i e f l y d u e to a r i s i n g f e d e r a l b u d g e t deficit. I n a c c o u n t basis) w a s d o w n it r o s e t o a p e a k o f $ 2 1 2 . 8 $2.6 billion f r o m 1854, at a 4 . 1 w h e n percent 1988, however, 1982. T h e budget billion d u r i n g fiscal 1 9 8 6 b e f o r e falling a are subject to deficit m e a s u r e cyclical prepared calculating the b u d g e t b y balance m o v e m e n t s . the U.S. T h e associated with u s e f u l t h a n t h e ac t u a l deficit in e x a m i n i n g table b e l o w D e p a r t m e n t s h o w s of C o m m e r c e an u n e m p l o y m e n t fiscal a c t i o n s that c o u l d rate stimulate output. adjusted deficit a l m o s t h i g h - e m p l o y m e n t real G N P 1982, fourth growth, is d o n e of 6 percent. deficit m e a s u r e s G N P with This half. product along the cyclical influence. than a n d like real subperiods that r e m o v e s T h e late to the level. receipts a n d in 1 9 8 2 substantially t h r o u g h o u t the e x p a n s i o n : g r o w t h spending b e g a n of a n a l y s t s a r g u e that this a c h i e v e m e n t w a s t h e deficit o f $ 1 4 3 . 3 deficit d i d v a r y expansion, the T h e n , doubled deficit c l i m b e d w h e n the s l o w e d in 1 9 8 8 , b y an during e v e n d e f i c i t fell $ 3 0 the first p e r i o d larger a m o u n t billion in 1987, in the in the output t h e deficit r o s e slightly. M o v e m e n t s table, second g r o w t h in real G N P rising period f r o m $56.9 s h o w n , accelerated to billion real a 5 in 1982. G N P g r o w t h percent rate. W h i l e the fell b y m o r e Finally, w h e n g r o w t h i n v a r i o u s s u b p e r i o d s i n this e x p a n s i o n h a v e b e e n o p p o s i t e to t h o s e o f t h e h i g h - e m p l o y m e n t deficit, s u g g e s t i n g t h a t b i g g e r deficits d o n o t f o s t e r e c o n o m i c e x p a n s i o n s . T h e P e r i o d H i g h - E m p l o y m e n t R e a l B u d g e t G N P g r o w t h Deficit a n d t h e C u r r e n t rate E x p a n s i o n H i g h - e m p l o y m e n t I V /1982-11/1984 7 . 0 % II/1 9 8 4 - 1 V / 1 9 8 6 2.7 187.6 I V / 1 9 8 6 / I V / 1 9 8 7 5.0 157.6 I V / 1 9 8 7 - I V / 1 9 8 8 2.7 162.8 !D a t a is t h e $ 1 1 1 . 8 a r e f o r t h e y e a r e n d i n g i n t h e last q u a r t e r o f t h e p e r i o d i n d i c a t e d , latest e x c e p t for 1 9 8 8 w h e r e b u d g e t deficit1 billion the year ending in III/1 9 8 8 available. views — T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E of R A N K ST. u r n s e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t official p o s i t i o n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m . Jo h n A. T a t o m T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS INITIAL MONTH 6-87 7-87 7 -87 3.5 8-87 4.0 4.4 9-87 2.2 1. 5 8-87 9— <*7 1 0 - 8 7 1 1 - 8 7 1 2 - 8 7 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 112*613 113*019 112*896 -1.3 113*225 1 0 -87 2.5 2.2 1 .1 3.6 1 1-87 2.5 2.3 1.6 3.0 2.5 113*460 113*740 1 2 -87 2.6 2.4 1 .9 3.0 2.8 3.0 1-88 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 2-88 2.7 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.3 3 -8 8 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.4 -1.5 114.055 114*273 114*129 114*660 4-88 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2 .1 2.0 5.7 5-88 2.1 1. 9 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1. 4 0.9 0.5 1. 4 -2.7 6-88 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 3.1 1.8 114*403 115.001 6.5 115.034 7 -88 2.3 2 .1 1.9 2.3 2.1 2 .1 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.4 1.3 3.4 0.3 8-88 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 1,9 1.7 1.6 2.3 1.4 2.8 1 .1 1.8 9 -88 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 2 .1 2.0 1. 9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1. 9 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 4.0 115.203 115.370 1.8 115*573 10-88 2.2 2 .1 1.9 2.2 2 .1 2.0 1. 9 1.8 11-88 2.3 2.2 2 .1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2 .1 2.0 12-88 2.2 2 .1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1 .9 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.0 2 .1 2.2 2.3 0.6 1-89 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 2.0 115*947 116*009 116*711 7.5 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 INITIAL MONTH P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 3, 1 9 8 9 P A Y R O L L E M P L O Y M E N T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 7-87 4.2 8-87 3 .5 2.9 9- 8 7 3.3 2.8 2.8 10- 8 7 3 .8 3.7 4.2 5.6 11-87 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.6 3.6 12-87 3.8 3 .7 3.9 4.3 3.7 3.8 1-88 3.7 3 .6 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.4 1-88 INITIAL MONTH OF PERSONS 2-88 3 - 8 8 4 - 8 8 THOUSANDS 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 102*430 102*672 102.906 103*371 103.678 104.001 3 .1 104*262 2-88 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.3 5.5 3-8 8 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.4 104*729 3.4 105*020 4-88 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.2 3.0 5-88 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 6-88 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.5 6.7 105*281 105*489 106*057 7-88 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.5 2.4 8-88 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.6 2.1 1.8 9-88 3.6 3 .6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 2.6 2.7 3.6 10-88 3.6 3. 5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.7 3.1 106*271 106*425 106.737 2.7 106.973 11-88 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 3. 1 3.3 3.8 3.9 5.1 1 2-83 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.8 2.5 1-89 3.7 3.« 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.7 3 .7 4.1 3.6 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 1 0 - 8 7 11- 8 / 1 2 - 8 7 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 IN IT IA L Í* 107*419 107.640P 4.6 108.048P 9 - 8 S 10-88 11-88 12-88 M ONTH PR E LIM IN A R Y PREPARED 8 V F E T ^ A L FE B R U A R Y 3» 19»* 2 R ES E R VE BANK O F S T . L O U IS EMPLOYMENT RATI O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS RATI O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS 130 S E A S O N A L L Y A D J US T E D 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1086. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEV PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 X . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT SEASO NALLY RATE PERCENT A D JU S T E D 10. 10.0 9. 9 .0 8. 8.0 7. 7 .0 6. 6.0 5. 5 .0 4. 4 .0 1981 1 98 2 1983 1 98 4 1 98 5 1 98 6 198 7 1988 198 9 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JANUARY PREPARED BY FEO ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . 3 LOUIS C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S * (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN ITIA L MONTH 4-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1982-84*100 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 113.9 7-87 S.2 8-87 4.3 5.4 9-87 3.4 3.7 2 .1 10-87 3.7 3.9 3.2 4.3 11 - 8 7 3.8 4.0 3.5 4.3 4.3 12 - 8 7 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 2 .1 1-88 3.8 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.7 5.3 2-88 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 114.4 114.6 115.0 115.4 115.6 11 6 . 1 116.3 2 .1 116.7 5 -88 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.9 3.1 4.2 4-88 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.2 3.8 4.7 5.3 5-88 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.2 4-88 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.2 117.2 117.7 11 8 . 1 118.6 7-88 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.7 5.2 8-88 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.1 9-88 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.2 10-88 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.1 11-88 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.0 12-88 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.6 4.1 1 -89 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.4 4-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 119.0 119.5 120.0 120.3 120.7 7.2 121.4 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 INITIAL MONTH ■DATA R E V I S E D F R O M 1 9 8 4 P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 22» 1989 P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S * ( C o m p o u d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 4-87 7-87 7-87 2.3 8-87 1 .7 1 .1 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1982 • 100 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 105.6 105.7 9-87 3.1 3.5 5.8 10-87 1. 7 1 .5 1.7 - 2.2 11-87 1. 4 1 .1 1 .1 - 1 .1 0 12-87 0.6 0.2 0.0 -1.9 7 -3.3 1-88 1.6 1. 5 1.6 0.6 5 2.3 2-88 1 .4 1. 3 1.3 0.5 1 1.5 4.0 0.0 3-88 1.8 1.7 1.8 1 .1 8 2.3 4.2 2.3 4.4 4-88 1 .9 1.9 2.0 1.5 2 1 2.5 4.0 2.7 4.0 3.4 5-88 2 .1 2.0 2.2 1.7 2 3 2.7 3.9 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 6-88 2 .1 2 .1 2.2 1.8 2 3 2.6 3.4 2.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.3 7-88 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2 8 3.1 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.4 6.9 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.1 3.4 4.3 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.7 5.1 4.8 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.2 3.4 3.4 106.2 106.0 -1 106.0 8-88 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2 8 3.2 9-88 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.7 3 2 3.5 10-88 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.5 2 9 S.2 105.7 106.4 8.2 104.4 104.8 107.1 107.4 107.4 108.2 108.5 109.1 109.1 0.0 11-88 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.4 S 0 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.4 3.4 1.7 3.4 12-88 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 3 1 3.4 4.0 S.4 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.0 4.5 5.4 1-8 9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3 8 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 7.2 9.1 4-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 4-88 7-88 8-88 109.4 109.9 12.7 111.0 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 IN ITIA L MONTH ■DATA REVISED FROM 1984 PREFARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 10» 1989 4 RATIO PRICES* SCALE R A T IO SCALE CONSUMER P R IC E S D A TA AR E ON A 1 9 8 2 -8 4 -1 0 0 B ASE C P I - U O A TA B E G IN N IN G 1983 IN C O R P O R A T E A R E N TA L E Q U IV A L E N C E MEASURE FOR HO M EOW NERSHIP C O S TS . PE R C E N TA G E S AR E AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FO R P E R IO O S L A T E S T D A TA P L O T T E O t IN D IC A T E D . JA N U A R Y * R E V IS E D FROM 1984 PR EP A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS R A T I O S CA L E PRODUCER P R IC E S PE R C E N TA G E S A R E AN NU AL R A T E S OF CHANGE F O R P E R IO O S L A T E S T D A T A P L O T T E D t JA N U A R Y *DATA REVISED FROM 1984 * RA T IO SCALE I N D IC A T E D , . . . . . . . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S * (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 4-87 7-87 -5.2 8-87 -5.8 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1982 « 100 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-68 12-88 110.1 109.5 -8.4 9-87 - 1.8 - 1 .1 4.8 109.9 10 - 8 7 -1.4 - 1 .1 2.8 - 1 .1 109.8 11-87 -0.9 -0.5 2.4 0.5 12-87 -2.9 - 2.8 -1.4 -5.9 1-88 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.4 2.2 2.2 19.1 2-88 -0.5 - 0.2 1. 5 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.8 -4.5 5-88 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.4 4.8 1 .1 4.7 4-88 0.2 0.4 1.8 1 .1 1.5 1. 5 5.0 0.7 5.5 5-88 0.8 1.2 2.5 1.8 2.2 5.4 2.2 4.4 5.5 4.7 2.0 5.1 2.7 5.2 5.5 4.2 5.7 5.8 5.5 8.4 10.2 5. 4 5.5 5.8 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.4 6.4 8.4 9.5 8.9 4.4 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.4 8.4 8.9 8.5 7.7 7.2 5.8 7.5 7.4 8.9 9.5 9.2 9.4 1 1 .1 4-88 1 .5 1.5 110.0 2.2 108.8 -5.5 -12.5 1.8 110.4 110.0 110.6 110.6 0.0 111.2 112.1 112.9 7-88 2 .1 2.5 8-88 2.5 2.9 5.9 5.7 4.2 9-88 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 10-88 5.0 5.4 4.5 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.4 4.6 7.7 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.5 2 .1 11-88 5.0 5.4 4.2 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.1 4.2 6.2 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.4 2.6 5.2 12-88 2.9 5.2 4.0 5.8 4.2 4.4 5.9 4.8 5.7 5.6 4.5 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.1 2 .1 1.0 1- 8 9 5.5 5.8 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.0 4.5 5.5 4.5 6.4 7 a 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.1 6.1 7.5 4-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 115.6 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.2 14.4 116.5 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-68 12-88 INITIAL MONTH ■DATA R E V I S E D F R O M 1 9 8 4 P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST . L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 10* 1 9 8 9 P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S * ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rat e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 4-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1982 « 100 5-88 4-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-68 104.0 7-67 2.5 8-87 4.1 5.9 9-87 4.7 5.9 10-87 2.6 2.7 1.2 -5.4 11-87 1 .9 1 .7 0.4 -2.5 - 1 .1 12-87 1 .7 1.6 0.4 - 1 .1 0.0 1-88 2.0 1 .9 1.2 0.0 1.2 2.5 5.5 2-88 2.2 2.2 1.5 0.7 1.7 2.7 5.5 5.5 5-88 2.2 2.2 1 .4 1.0 1.8 2.4 5. 1 2.9 104.5 105.0 5.9 104.7 104.6 104.7 105.0 105.5 2.5 105.5 4-88 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 2.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.4 5-88 2.4 2.4 2.0 1. 4 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.5 2.5 6-88 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 1 .1 0.0 105.9 106.1 106.1 7-88 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.9 5. 1 5.1 5.0 5.2 2.7 2.9 5.8 8-88 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 2.9 5. 1 4.6 5.4 9-88 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.7 5 .1 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.4 4.4 4.0 4.6 10-88 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 5.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 5.4 2.7 2.5 0.0 11-88 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.7 5.2 2.4 2.5 1 .1 2.5 12-88 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.9 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 4.0 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.1 8.1 1 -89 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.4 7.5 9.9 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-67 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-68 4-88 5-88 4-88 7-68 8-88 106.6 106.9 107.5 107.5 107.5 108.2 11.7 109.2 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 IN IT IA L MONTH ■DATA R EV ISED FROM 1984 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 10» 1989 6 I N D U S T R I A L R A T IO P R O D U C T I O N S C A L E R A T IO 1 97 7- 100 SEASONALLY S C A L E ADJUSTED 197 7-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL P R O D U C T I O N ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rat e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 7-87 14.9 8-87 10.2 5.7 9-87 6.0 1. 9 - 1.8 10-87 8 .1 5.9 6.1 14.6 11-87 7.8 6.1 6.2 10.5 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1 9 7 7 * 10 0 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 150.6 151.2 151.0 152.5 6.5 155.2 12-87 7.6 6.2 6.5 9.2 6.5 6.5 1-88 7.1 5.9 6.0 8.0 5.9 5.5 4.6 2-88 6.2 5.0 4.9 6.5 4.4 5.7 2.5 0.0 5-88 5.8 4.7 4.6 5.7 4.0 5.4 2.4 1.5 2.7 4-88 5.9 4.9 4.8 5.8 4.4 4.0 5.4 5.0 4.5 6.4 5-88 5.9 5.1 5.0 5.9 4.7 4.4 4.0 5.8 5.2 6.4 6.4 6-88 5.7 4.9 4.9 5.6 4.6 4.5 5.9 5.8 4.8 5.5 5.0 5.6 7-88 6.5 5.7 5.7 6.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 6.5 7.5 7.9 8.7 14.0 8-88 6.2 5.6 5.6 6.5 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.5 6.2 6.9 7.0 7.2 9.1 4.4 9-88 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.8 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.4 5.9 5.8 5.6 6.5 2.6 0.9 10-88 5.9 5.4 5.5 5.9 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.5 4.1 4.0 7.2 11-88 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 4.2 4.1 5.8 4.4 12-88 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.1 4.6 4.6 5.9 5.5 6.2 1-89 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.8 4.5 4.6 5.5 5.0 5.5 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 155.9 154.4 154.4 154.7 155.4 1 56.1 156.5 158.0 158.5 158.6 159.4 159.9 1 4 0 . 6P 4.4 1 4 1 . IP 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 15» 1989 7 P E R S O N A L R A T IO S C A L E MONTHL Y TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS I N C O M E TOTALS AT ANNUAL ; RATES R A T IO S C A L E TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 4 .4 4 .0 3 .6 3 .2 2.8 2 .4 1981 198 2 19 8 3 198 4 198 5 19 8 6 19 8 7 19 8 8 19 8 9 SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L I N C O M E ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL MONTH 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 7- 8 7 10.6 8-87 9.4 8.5 9-87 8 .1 6.9 5.5 10-87 12.5 15.2 15.7 26.8 1 1- 8 7 9.0 8.6 8.7 10.4 12-87 10.5 10.5 1 1 .1 15.0 6.6 18.5 1-88 8.1 7.7 7.6 8 .1 2.5 6.0 -5.1 2-88 8 .1 7 .7 7.7 8 .1 5.9 6.6 1.2 7.9 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 5»778,6 5 »805.7 5*820.8 5*897.2 -4.0 5*884.1 5*959.0 5*921.8 5*946.7 5-88 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.8 5.5 8.1 4.8 10.2 12.6 4-88 8.2 7.9 7.9 8.2 5.4 7.4 4.8 8.5 8.5 4.6 5-88 8.0 7.8 7.7 8.0 5.5 7.2 5.1 7.8 7.8 5.5 6.5 6-88 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.9 5.7 7.2 5.4 7.7 7.7 6.1 6.8 7.2 7-88 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 6.1 7.5 6.0 8.0 8.0 6.9 7.6 8.5 9.4 8-88 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.8 6.0 7.2 5.9 7.5 7.5 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.2 5*985.9 4*001.0 4*021.4 4*044.9 4*075.5 5.0 4*091.8 9-88 7 .8 7.6 7.5 7.7 6.1 7.2 6.0 7.5 7. 4 6.6 7.0 7.1 7 .1 5.9 6.9 10-88 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.6 7.2 8.5 7.5 8.8 8.9 8.4 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.5 15.4 20.2 11-88 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.8 6.5 7.4 6.4 7.7 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.9 8.4 - 2.2 12-88 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.0 6.8 7.7 6.8 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.9 8 .1 8.2 8.0 8.8 9.4 4.5 11.4 1-89 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.9 7.8 8.7 8.0 9.2 9.5 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.5 10.4 11.5 12.7 10.5 17.2 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 4*114.7 4*178.5 4*170.4 4*208.0 25.5 4 * 2 8 2 . OP IN ITIAL MONTH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 1» 1989 8 RETAIL R A T IO SALES R A T IO S C A L E BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1981 1 98 2 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 19 8 3 1 98 4 19 8 5 S C A L E 1986 1 98 7 1988 198 9 SOURCE» U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» DECEMBER, JANUARY ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 INITIAL MONTH DOLLARS 2-88 3 - 8 8 4 - 8 8 MILLIONS OF 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 127*122 7-87 6.5 8-87 15.0 9-87 5.7 10-87 1.4 11-87 1.9 0.8 - 6.0 -3.5 4.0 12-87 3.6 3.0 -1.7 1.5 8 .1 12.3 1-88 3.4 2.9 -0.9 1. 7 6.1 7.2 2.3 2-88 4.4 4.1 1.0 3.6 7.5 8.6 6.9 11.6 5-88 6.2 6.1 3.8 6.4 10.2 11.7 11.6 16.5 21.6 4— 8 8 5.0 4.8 2.6 4.7 7.5 8.2 7.2 8.9 7.6 -4.8 5-88 5.5 5.4 3.5 5.5 7.9 8.6 7.9 9.3 8.6 2.6 10.7 6-88 5.7 5.6 3.9 5.7 7.9 8.4 7.8 8.9 8.3 4.2 9.0 7.3 7-88 5.7 5.7 4.1 5.8 7.7 8.2 7.6 8.6 8.0 4.8 8.2 7.0 6.7 8-88 5.6 5.5 4.1 5.6 7.3 7.7 7.2 7.9 7.3 4.6 7.1 5.9 5.2 3.8 9-88 5.0 4.8 3.5 4.8 6.3 6.5 5.9 6.3 5.6 3.2 4.8 3.4 2.2 0.0 -3.7 10-88 5.9 5.9 4.7 6.0 7.5 7.8 7.4 8.0 7.5 5.6 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.8 8.3 21.7 11-88 6.5 6.5 5.4 6.7 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.8 8.5 6.9 8.7 8.4 8.6 9.1 10.9 19.0 16.3 12-88 6.1 6.0 5.0 6.2 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.8 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.7 11.8 7.2 - 1.2 1-89 6.1 6.1 5.1 6.2 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.7 7.4 6.1 7.3 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.6 10.6 7. 1 2.7 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 6-88 7-88 8-88 129*448 24.3 128*211 5.3 -10 . 9 127*036 -0.3 -10.7 -10.5 127*456 128*691 128*940 130*121 132*259 131*717 132*833 133*617 134*342 134*759 134*341 136*560 138*292 138*153P 6.8 138*913E 9 - 8 8 10-88 11-88 12-88 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM IN A RY E- ESTIM ATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 14» 1989 9 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN ITIA L QUARTER 1-84 2-84 2 7 5-84 5 5 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-8« 2-86 5-84 1977*100 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 166.9 168.7 4.4 170.5 4-84 5 6 4.1 5 1-85 4 0 4.5 4 5.5 2-85 4 0 4.4 4 4.6 4.0 5-85 4 2 4.5 4 4.8 4.6 5.1 4-85 4 4 4.7 4 5.0 4.9 5.4 5.6 1-86 4 5 4.5 4 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.6 5.6 172.5 174.2 176.4 178.8 180.4 182.0 2-86 4 2 4.4 4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.6 5.6 5-86 4 5 4.4 4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.9 4.0 4.5 4-86 4 4.5 4 5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 1 -87 4 4.5 4 5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.6 2.4 2-87 4 4.2 4 2 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.0 184.0 186.2 187.5 5.7 189.0 5-87 4 4.5 4 2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.9 4.0 5.9 5.5 4.1 4.5 4-87 4 4.4 4 4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.2 1-88 4 4.4 4 5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.0 191.1 194.0 5.8 195.8 2-88 4 4.4 4 4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.8 5-88 4 4.5 4 5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 6.2 4-88 4 4.5 4 5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.4 4.7 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 1-84 198.1 201.1 205.4P INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 6» 1 9 8 9 O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS S E C T O R ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-84 2-84 1.9 5-84 0.8 -0.4 4-84 1.0 0.6 1 .5 1-85 1 .5 1.4 2.5 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 1977»100 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 105.6 105.5 105.9 5.1 106.7 2-85 1.8 1.8 2.5 5.0 5.0 5-85 2.0 2.0 2.7 5.0 5.0 107.5 5.0 108.5 4-85 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 0.7 1-86 2.5 2.6 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.7 4.1 7.6 2-86 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 5.5 -0.4 5-86 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2 .1 1.9 1.6 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 4-86 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1 .1 1.2 - 0.8 -l.l -0.7 1-8 7 1.5 1. 5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 -0.5 - 0.6 - 0.2 2-87 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 5-87 1.8 1. 7 1. 9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.5 5.5 4.0 4-87 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1. 4 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.2 0.4 1-88 1.8 1.8 1. 9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.0 2-88 1 .5 1 .4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1 .1 0.1 0.0 -5.5 5-88 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 -0.9 1.8 4-88 1 .5 1 .5 1. 4 1.4 1.5 1 .1 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 - 1.2 0.0 - 1.8 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 108.5 110.5 110.4 110.0 109.8 0.4 109.9 110.6 111.7 111.8 5.6 112.8 111.8 112.5 111.8P IN ITIA L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 4» 1989 10 P R O D U C T I V IT Y , C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND LA BO R C O STS R A T IO SCALE R A T IO SCALE 1977-100 1981 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SO URCEt U . S . D E P A R TM E N T OP LA B O R P E R C E N TA G E S A R E AN NU AL R A T E S O f CHANGE FO R P E R IO D S IN D IC A T E D . L A T E S T D A TA P L O T T E O t 4 TH Q U A R TE R P R E L I N I N ARY PR EP AR E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS UNIT L A B O R COSTS, BUSINESS S E C T O R ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R ates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-65 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-86 5-86 1977*100 4-86 1-87 2-67 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-68 2-84 0.5 5-64 2.7 4.9 4-64 2.5 5.4 2.5 1-65 2.4 5.0 2 .1 2.0 2-85 2 .1 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 5-85 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.5 4-85 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.4 5.5 4.5 1-84 1 .7 1.9 1.4 1.2 1 .1 1 .1 0.4 -5.4 2-86 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.1 4.0 5-84 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 5.0 6.0 4-86 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 5.1 5.2 2.9 5.2 5.8 5.6 1-87 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 5.0 5.0 2.8 4.4 4.4 5.9 2 .1 2-87 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 5.7 5.4 2.8 1.4 0.7 5-87 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 5.2 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.7 4-87 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 2.5 2.4 5.2 5.7 1-88 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.1 2.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 2 .1 2.8 0.0 2-88 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 5.0 5.1 2.9 5.7 5.4 5.5 2.9 5 .1 5.7 4.7 4.2 8.4 5-88 2.8 5.0 2.9 2.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.8 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4-88 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.4 4.0 4.0 5.8 5.6 5.8 4.5 5.1 4.9 4.4 5.4 4.9 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-84 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 158.0 159.9 160.8 161.6 162.0 165.0 164.8 165.5 164.9 167.5 169.6 170.5 170.8 171.1 175.5 175.5 177.1 179.0 1 8 2 . OP IN ITIA L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS FEBRUARY 4» 1969 11 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ! R a t e s of C h a n g e ) INITIAL QUARTER t e r m in a l QUARTER 1—84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 2-84 8 .9 5-84 7.4 4-84 4.5 5.5 4.7 1-85 6.8 6.1 4.5 7.9 2-85 «.« 6.0 4.0 4.7 5.4 5-85 6.6 6.2 4.5 4.8 4.5 4-85 6.6 6.2 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.2 1- 8« 6.7 6.5 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.7 7.2 2- 8« 6.2 5.9 5.9 4.1 5.7 5.7 5.5 4.9 5-8« 6.2 5.9 5.9 4.0 5.7 5.8 4-8« 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.4 1-87 6.1 5.9 5.9 4.0 5.8 5.8 2-87 6.5 6 .1 4.1 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.0 5-87 6.4 6.2 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.5 4-87 4.4 6.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 1-8« 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5*75 4.2 5*807.9 5 » 8 5 1 .8 5*925.6 5*979.0 7.0 4*047.0 4*107.9 4*180.4 2.4 4*207.4 4.5 5.9 4.0 4.7 5.4 5.1 5.9 5.9 8.4 4.0 5.8 4.4 4.8 8.5 8*7 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.8 7.0 8.2 8.2 7.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 7.1 7.5 8.5 8.5 8 .1 8.4 5.1 4.8 4*268.4 4*504.4 4*591.8 4*484.2 4»548.0 4 »442.8 1-88 6.5 6.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 6.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.0 5.4 2-88 6.6 6.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 7 .1 7.2 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.0 8.7 5-88 6.6 6.5 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.4 7.1 7.2 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.1 8.0 7.5 4-88 6.7 6.6 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 7.1 7.2 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.4 7 .1 7.7 7.2 7.2 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4»724.5 4*825.8 4*909.0 4»995.2P INITIAL QUARTER PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1989 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN i m D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n n a l Rat e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 2-84 5.5 5-84 4.0 2.4 4-84 5.2 2 .1 1.7 1-85 5.4 5.0 5.5 4.9 2-85 5.4 2.9 5.0 5.7 2.4 5-85 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.5 4.1 4-85 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.5 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-84 5-86 4-84 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 5»498.0 5*520.6 5*535.2 5*577.5 5*599.2 5*455.8 5.0 5»442.4 1-84 5.8 5.4 5.7 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.4 2-84 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.1 2.8 2.7 - 0.8 5-84 5 .1 2.8 2.8 5.0 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 0.1 4-84 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 1-87 5.0 2.8 2.8 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.5 5.0 4.4 2-87 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 5.0 5.7 4.8 5.0 5-87 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.5 5. 1 5.2 5.1 5.1 2.4 5.5 5.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 4-87 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.8 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 4.1 1-88 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.7 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.8 2-88 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.4 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 5.2 5.0 5-88 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.5 5.8 4.1 4.1 5.9 5.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 4-88 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 5*719.5 5*711.4 5*721.5 1.0 5*754.7 5»774.7 5 »825.0 5*845.5 5,925.0 5*954.1 5.4 5*985.2 4*009.4 4 * 0 2 9 . 7P IN IT IA L QUARTER PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 28» 1989 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T R A T I O SCALE QUARTERLY TOTALS T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S SEASONALLY R A TI O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 5.4 AT ANNUA L RATES ADJUSTED 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4. 2 4.0 3.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4. 2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2 . 8 2 . 6 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCE: U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS IN DICATED . L A T E S T DATA PLOTTED« 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPA RED 13 BY FED ERA L R ESER V E BA N K OF ST . L O U IS G E N E R A L R A T IO P R I C E I N D E X * S C A L E R A T IO S C A L E 1982-100 1981 1982-100 1982 198 3 19 84 198 5 1986 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 19 8 7 1988 19 8 9 SOURCE* U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 1-84 2-64 5-84 4-84 1- 6 5 2—84 5.0 5-84 5.2 5.4 4-84 5.1 5.2 5.0 1-85 5.0 5.0 2.8 2.6 2-85 5. 1 5 .1 5.0 5.0 5.5 2-85 5-85 4-65 1-86 2-86 5-86 1962 « 100 4-66 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 107.5 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.6 5-85 5.0 5.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 4-85 5.0 5.0 2.9 2.9 5.1 2.9 1-86 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2-86 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 5-86 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4-86 2.9 2.9 2.9 1-87 5.0 5.0 2.9 2-87 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5- 8 7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5. 1 4-87 5.0 5.0 2.9 2.9 1-88 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2-88 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5. 1 5.1 5.5 5-88 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 4-88 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 1-64 2-84 5-64 4-84 1-85 2-65 5-85 4-85 1-86 2.8 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.0 5.0 111.5 5.5 112.2 2.2 2.0 0.7 112.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.4 2 .1 5.5 5.4 2.8 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.4 5.4 2.9 5.5 5.2 2.8 5.1 5.0 5.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 5.1 2.9 5.0 5.0 2.8 2.9 115.4 114.7 115.5 5.5 116.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 117.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.1 2.9 5 .1 5.0 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.0 5.5 5 .1 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.1 4.7 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 4.5 5.2 5.0 5.5 2-86 5-86 4-66 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-68 2-88 5-68 118.2 118.9 119.4 1.7 121.0 122.4 1 2 4 . OF IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER 1-64 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-65 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 2-64 9.8 5-84 7.7 5.6 4-84 7.5 6.4 7 2 1-65 8.2 7.7 8 7 10.2 2-65 8.0 7.5 8 2 8.7 7.1 5-85 8.5 8.0 6 9.1 8.5 4-65 8.0 7.7 1 8.5 7. 7 7.9 6.0 1-66 7.7 7.4 7 7.8 7.2 7.2 5.9 5.8 2-66 7.4 7.1 5 7.5 6.7 6.6 5.6 5.4 4.9 5-86 7.7 7.5 7 7.8 7.4 7.4 6.8 7.1 7.7 10.6 4-86 7.4 7.2 4 7.4 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.6 4.8 1-87 7.4 7.1 5 7.5 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.5 5.6 4-86 1-67 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-8 8 2*417.0 2*450.5 2*495.4 2*554.9 2*599.5 9.9 2*661.4 2*700.4 2*759.0 2*772.1 2*842.8 2*876.0 6.5 2*921.7 2*992.2 2-87 7.6 7.4 5 7.6 7.5 7.5 6.9 7. 1 7.5 7.9 7.1 8.2 10.0 5-87 7.7 7.5 7 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.2 7.6 8.5 9.6 4-87 7.5 7.1 5 7.5 7.0 7.0 1-88 7.5 7.1 2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.7 9. 1 5*058.2 5*076.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 6.5 7.0 7.1 5.7 2.4 6.8 6.9 7.1 6.6 7.0 7.1 6.1 4.6 6.9 5*128.1 5*194.6 2-88 7.4 7.2 5 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.0 7. 1 7.4 6.9 7.5 7 .4 6.8 6.0 7.8 8.8 5-88 7.4 7.5 4 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.1 6.6 8 .1 8.7 8.6 4-88 7.5 7.5 4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.5 7 .7 7.5 6.9 8 .1 6.5 8.5 8 .1 1-84 2-64 5-84 4-64 1-65 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 5*261.2 5 * 5 2 5 . IP INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED B Y F E D ERAL R E S E R V E BANK O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28* 1989 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-64 4-84 1-85 2-84 6.4 5-84 4.1 1.9 4-84 4.2 5.1 1-85 4.8 4.5 5.6 6 8 2-85 4.5 4.0 4.8 5 0 5.2 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2-86 5 - 8 6 4 - 8 6 BILLIONS O F DOLLARS 1-67 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 2*246.7 2*257.5 4.5 2*281.1 2*519.1 2*557.4 5-85 4.9 4.6 5.5 5 6 5.0 6.8 4-85 4.4 4.1 4.6 6 5.9 4.5 2*575.9 2*586.9 1-86 4.5 4.2 4.6 7 4.1 4.5 2-86 4.5 4.2 4.6 6 4.2 4.4 5.7 4.6 4.5 5-86 4.7 4.5 4.8 9 4.5 4.8 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.5 4-86 4.5 4.1 4.4 4 4.1 4.2 5.7 4.2 5.9 5. 7 1.2 1- 8 7 4.0 5.8 4.0 0 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.4 5. 1 2.7 0.9 0.6 2-87 4.0 5.9 4.0 0 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.1 2.0 2.5 4.5 5-87 4.1 5.9 4.1 1 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.4 2.7 5.2 4.5 4.6 4-87 5.7 5.5 5.6 5 5.2 5.2 2.9 5.0 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.2 - 2 .1 1-68 5.7 5.5 5.7 6 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.0 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.5 1.2 2-88 5.7 5.5 5.6 5 6 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.0 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.8 5.8 5.0 5-88 5.7 5.5 5.6 5 6 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.1 2.9 2.5 2.7 5.0 2.8 2.5 5.8 5.5 5.9 4-88 5.7 5.5 5.6 5 6 5.4 5.4 5. 1 5.2 5.1 5.0 2.6 2.8 5.1 2.9 2.5 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.5 1- 8 4 2-64 5-84 1-85 2-65 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-66 4-66 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-67 1-68 2-88 5-88 4-84 4.8 2*415.1 2*440.9 2*478.6 2*486.2 2*490.2 2*516.6 2*545.2 2*551.7 4.5 2*559.8 2*579.0 2*605.8 2 * 6 2 6 . OP IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS 15 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 0.7 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 664.2 5 -84 2.2 5.7 4-84 - 0.2 -0.7 -5.0 1-85 -5.6 -5.0 -9.0 -12.9 2-65 -1.5 - 1.8 -5.6 -2.9 5-8 5 -5.7 -4.5 -6.5 -7.0 4-85 - 0.8 - 1.0 -1.9 - 1.2 670.5 661.8 659.5 8.4 652.5 -5.9 -14.8 5. 1 626.7 0.6 18.7 654.1 1-86 1.8 1.9 1.6 5.0 7. 4 7.1 20.0 2-86 0.5 0.5 - 0.2 0.6 5.6 2.4 8.8 5-86 - 0.6 - 0.8 -1.5 - 0.8 1.4 0.1 4.2 - 0.2 -9.5 — 8.6 4-86 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 1.5 0.4 5.8 0.4 -5.8 -5.4 2.1 1- 8 7 1 .1 1.2 0.9 1.6 5.6 2.9 6.2 5.8 - 0.2 5.5 10.2 18.9 2-87 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.2 4.0 5.5 6.4 4.5 1.4 4.6 9.4 15.2 7.8 5-87 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.2 5.9 5.4 5.9 4.2 1.6 4.2 7.6 9.5 5.1 2.5 4-87 5.9 4.1 4.1 4.9 6.7 6.6 9.5 8 .1 6.4 9.5 15 . 5 16.5 15.7 19.9 40.5 1-88 5.6 5.8 5.8 4.5 6.1 5.9 8.2 7.1 5.4 7.9 11.0 12.8 11.4 12.6 18.0 - 0.8 2-88 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.0 5.4 5.1 7.2 6.1 4.5 6.5 8.9 10.1 8.4 8.5 10.6 - 1.8 -2.7 5-88 5.5 5.6 5.6 4.2 5.6 5.5 7.2 6.2 4.8 6.7 8.8 9.8 8.5 8.4 9.9 1.5 2.4 7.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.9 5.1 4.9 6.6 5.6 4.5 5.9 7.6 8.5 6.9 6.7 7.6 0.7 1.2 5.5 -1.1 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1- 8 5 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 21.4 686.6 4.2 -10 . 5 667.8 655.0 656.4 685.5 698.5 702.8 764.9 765.4 758.1 772.5 770.4P INITIAL QUARTER PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1989 G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1- 8 5 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2-86 5 - 8 6 4 - 8 6 2-84 2.0 5-84 2.8 5.6 4-84 0.1 - 0.8 -5.0 1-85 -5.2 -4.9 - 8.8 - 1 2 . 4 2-85 -0.9 -1.7 -5.5 -2.5 5-85 -5.8 -4.9 -6.9 -7.6 4-85 - 0.6 - 1 .1 - 2.0 - 1.2 2.9 0.2 20.8 1-86 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.7 6.9 6.5 20.5 2-86 - 0.2 -0.5 - 1.0 -0.4 2.2 0.7 7.4 5-86 -1.7 - 2 .1 - 2.8 -2.5 -0.7 -2.5 1.5 -4.2 -14.5 -14.2 4-86 - 2.2 - 2.6 -5.5 -5.0 - 1.6 -5.2 - 0.2 - 4 . 9 - 1 1 . 9 - 10.6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5— 8 8 658.4 664.2 655.7 654.5 647.5 8.6 618.1 -5.0 -17.0 648.0 678.0 19.8 652.1 1. 5 - 1 4 . 4 627.6 -6.9 616.5 1-87 -0.4 -0.7 - 1 .1 - 0.6 0.9 - 0.1 5.0 - 0.2 -4.7 - 1.2 6.1 20.9 2-87 0.2 0.1 - 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.0 5.8 1.2 - 2 .1 1.2 7.0 14.6 8.8 5-87 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 2 .1 1. 4 4.0 1.7 - 1.0 1.9 6.4 11.5 6.8 4.8 4-87 2.7 2.8 2.7 5.4 5.0 4.6 7.5 5.8 5.9 7.5 12.2 17.6 16.5 20.5 58.6 1-88 2.7 2.7 2.7 5.5 4.7 4.4 6.8 5.4 5.7 6.6 10.5 14.5 12.8 14.1 19.1 2.5 2-88 2 .1 2 .1 2.0 2.5 5.8 5.4 5.4 4.0 2.4 4.7 7.7 10.4 8.4 8.5 9.5 - 2.6 -7.4 5-88 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 5.9 5.6 5.5 4.2 2.8 4.9 7.6 9.8 8 .1 7.9 8.7 0.5 - 0.8 6.5 4-88 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.2 5.2 2.9 4.6 5.5 2.0 5.8 6.0 7.7 5.9 5.5 5.6 -1.5 -2.5 0.0 -5.9 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 646.4 660.1 667.9 724.7 728.9 715.1 726.1 7 1 5 . IP IN IT IA L QUARTER PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 28» 1989 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S I N (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) C U R REN T D O LLA R S BILLIONS OF TERMINAL QUARTER 1-8 4 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2-86 5 - 8 6 4 - 8 6 DOLLARS 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 2-84 24.6 5-84 14.9 755.8 4-84 15.2 8.0 9.9 764.5 1-85 12.6 8.9 10.4 10.8 784.4 2-85 11.9 9.0 10.0 10.0 5-85 15 . 5 11.2 12.5 15.4 14.7 20.6 4-85 12.6 10.7 11.6 12.1 12.5 14.2 1-86 10 . 5 8.4 2-86 10 . 5 8.7 5-86 9.9 8.4 8.7 4-86 9.2 7.7 7.9 7.7 1-87 9.1 7.8 7.9 7.7 2-87 8.8 7.6 7.7 7.5 7. 1 5-87 8.7 7.6 7.7 7.5 7. 1 4-87 8.5 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.1 6.9 1-88 7 .9 6.9 7 .0 6.7 6.4 7.0 6.8 6.5 746.6 6.0 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.9 8.5 801.7 9.1 840.2 856.7 8.1 847.8 1.8 -4.1 4.6 2.8 10.5 7.9 5.0 5.9 8.2 6.1 7.2 6.9 4.4 5.5 6.1 4.1 2.1 7.5 7.1 5.0 4.4 6.6 5.4 5.1 8.0 6.9 5.0 4.5 6.4 5.4 5.2 6.7 5.4 6.9 5.5 4.9 6.5 5.8 5.7 6.9 6.4 7.4 5.5 5.2 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.9 6.5 7.0 6.6 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.6 4.9 4.7 5.5 4.6 4.5 2.8 -0.9 6.2 5.0 4.7 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.0 7.1 8.1 8.5 8 .1 7.7 8.4 868.8 881.8 886.5 905.8 915.7 952.2 947.5 945.2 961.6 2-88 7.9 6.9 5-88 7.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 4.4 4.0 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.4 5.8 5.4 2.5 1 .1 2 .1 - 2.6 4-88 7. 8 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.4 5.5 5.1 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.0 7.0 7.0 17.5 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 955.5 994.5P INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28* 1989 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 19S2 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2-86 5 - 8 6 4 - 8 6 17. 7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 680.2 684.5 5-84 9.9 2.6 4-84 8.5 5.9 5.2 1-85 8.0 5.0 6.2 7.5 2-85 7.7 5.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 5-85 9.7 8 .1 9.5 11.0 15.0 19.8 4-85 8.5 7.0 7.9 8.6 9.0 10.5 1.6 1-86 6.6 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.1 4.7 - 2 .1 2-86 6.9 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.9 1.6 1.6 9.5 5-86 6.6 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 2.5 2.5 6.9 695.2 705.5 716.7 749.8 752.7 -5.7 741.8 758.8 4.5 766.9 4-86 6.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 2.6 2.9 5.9 4.2 4.0 1-87 5.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.4 2.0 2 .1 4.2 2.5 1.6 - 0.8 774.5 2-87 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.1 5.8 1.7 1.7 5.5 1.8 0.9 - 0.6 -0.4 772.9 772.2 5-87 5.5 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.0 2.2 2.5 5.7 2.5 2.1 1.4 2.6 5.7 4-87 5.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.1 2.5 2.6 5.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.0 1-88 4.4 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.0 1.4 1.4 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.7 -1.7 -7.9 2-88 4.4 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.0 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.6 1 .5 0.8 1 .1 1.5 0.2 - 2.2 5.9 5-88 5.8 5.1 5.1 5.0 2.7 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 - 0.1 0.1 0.1 - 1.2 -5.2 -0.7 -5.2 4-88 4.1 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.1 2.9 1.7 1.7 2.4 1. 7 1. 4 1 .1 1 .4 1.7 0.9 - 0.1 2.7 2 .1 9.8 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 782.9 792.6 776.4 785.8 775.5 791.8P IN ITIA L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS FEBRUARY 28» 1989 17 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2 -86 5-86 4-86 2-84 4.8 5-84 6.2 7.5 4-84 6.0 6.6 5.7 1- 8 5 5.9 6.2 5.5 5.4 2-85 7.5 7.9 8.0 9.1 15. 1 5-85 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 -1.5 4-85 6.2 6.4 6.1 6.5 6.6 5.5 8.6 1-86 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.5 5.4 9.0 9.4 2-86 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.2 5.8 8.4 8.2 7.1 5— 8 6 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.4 5.1 6.8 6.2 4.6 2.2 4-86 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.1 4.9 6.5 5.7 4.5 5.2 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 2 » 6 4 2 .8 2»691.1 2 »728.6 2*764.6 2»850.7 2*840.0 2*899.5 2*965.1 5»016.5 5*052.4 4.5 5»064.7 1-87 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6 5.8 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.7 7.5 10.7 2-87 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.2 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.6 5.4 5.9 1. 5 5,145.9 5 »154.1 5-87 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.5 6.4 5.6 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.5 6.5 7.0 5.2 9.5 4-87 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.2 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 7.4 8.2 7.4 10.5 11.8 1-88 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 7. 2 7.0 6.7 6.6 7.4 8.0 7.4 9.5 9.6 7.4 2-88 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 7. 0 6.8 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.0 8.5 8.2 6.5 5.6 5-88 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.5 8.0 7.6 8.9 8.8 7.8 8.0 10.4 4-88 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.8 8.2 7.8 9.0 8.9 8.2 8.5 9.9 9.4 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 5*224.9 5*515.8 5*575.6 5*421.5 5*507.5 5*587.4P INITIAL QUARTER PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1989 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rat e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-84 1.6 5-84 2.7 5.7 4-84 2.7 5.5 2.8 1-85 2.6 2.9 2.5 2 .1 2-85 5.8 4.4 4.6 5.5 8.9 2-85 5-85 4-85 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-86 2-86 5 - 8 6 4 - 8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 2*456.6 2*479.2 2*496.5 2*509.4 2*565.5 2*555.4 5-85 2.4 2.6 2.5 2 .1 2 .1 -4.5 4-85 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 - 0.1 4.4 2*562.8 2*614.5 1-86 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.8 4.2 2.7 6.5 8.5 2-86 5.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.6 6.4 7.4 6.5 5-86 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 2.5 4.5 4.2 2.5 - 1.8 4-86 2.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2 2.2 5.6 5.4 1.8 -0.5 0.8 1- 8 7 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 2.6 5.8 5.6 2.5 1.2 2.7 4.6 2-87 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 1 .7 2.6 2.5 1.2 - 0.1 0.4 0.5 -5.9 5-87 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.5 4.8 4-87 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.2 2.5 1.8 2.6 5.0 2.5 5.8 6.9 1-88 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.5 2.8 5.5 5.4 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 5.5 5.9 5.0 2-88 2.9 5.0 2.9 2.9 5.0 2.5 5.2 5.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.5 4.1 5.9 2.5 0.0 5-88 5.0 5 .1 5.1 5.1 5.2 2.8 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.4 2.9 5.2 5.0 4.4 4.5 5.5 2.8 5.6 4-88 5 .1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.5 5.4 5.0 2.6 5. 1 5.4 5.2 4.5 4.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 4.8 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 2*655.9 2*645.9 2*649.4 2*679.6 2*652.8 2*685.9 2*728.9 2*762.5 2*762.2 2*800.4 2 * 8 5 5 . IP IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 28» 1989 18 C O R P O R A T E P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-83 1-84 27.9 2-84 11.2 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 152.5 -3.4 151.2 3-84 -1.9 -14.0 -23.5 4-84 -2.9 -11.5 -15.2 141.4 139.2 - 6.1 1-85 -11.7 -19.5 -24.2 -24.6 -39.4 2-85 -9.1 -15.1 -17.9 -15.9 -20.4 122.8 4.6 124.2 3-85 - 5 . 8 - 1 0 . 5 - 11.8 - 8.6 -9.5 10.7 1 7.1 4-85 -2.9 ^7.2 -3.5 -2.9 13.7 18.5 19.9 135.2 1-86 - 6 . 5 - 10.1 - 11.0 - 8.8 -9.3 0.3 -l.l -9.1 -31.0 123.2 -3.9 -14.0 - 6.6 129.2 125.4 2-86 -5.2 -8.3 -8.9 - 6.6 -6.7 1 .7 1.0 3-86 - 2.8 -5.4 -5.7 -3.2 -2.7 5.3 5.4 2.6 - 2.6 15.8 25.0 4-86 -1.3 -3.6 -3.6 - 1 .1 -0.5 6.9 7.2 5.4 2.0 16.2 20.9 17.0 1- 8 7 -1.7 -3.9 -3.9 -1.7 - 1.2 5.0 5.1 3.2 0.2 10.0 10 . 9 4.4 2-87 -0.5 -2.4 -2.3 - 0.1 0.5 6.4 6.6 5.2 2.9 11. 5 12.5 8.6 4.7 17.6 3-87 1 .1 - 0.6 -0.3 1.9 2.6 8.2 8.6 7.6 5.9 13.8 15.1 12.7 11.4 21.7 26.0 4-87 0.4 - 1.2 - 1 .1 0.9 1.5 6,4 6.6 5.5 3.8 10.1 10.5 7.8 5.7 10.2 6.6 -9.8 7. 3 132.6 137.9 135.5 - 6.8 141.1 149.5 145.7 1-88 1.0 -0.5 -0.3 1.6 2.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 4.5 10.1 10.5 8.3 6.6 10.3 7.9 - 0.1 10.6 2-88 2.8 1.5 1.8 3.8 4.6 9.0 9.4 8.7 7.7 13.2 13.9 12.4 1 1.7 15.8 15.3 11.9 24.7 40.7 149.4 3-88 3.5 2.3 2.7 4.6 5.3 9.6 10.0 9.4 8.5 13.5 14.2 12.9 12.4 15.9 15.6 13.1 22.0 28.1 16.7 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 162.7 1 69 . 1 INITIAL QUARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S F E B R U A R Y 28» 1989 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF RATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1985-88:11 are published in the July 1988 Survey of Current Business. Data for 1984 is in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 is in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States. 1929-82: Statistical Tables. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY S A L E S M A N U F A C T U R IN G AND TRAD E .72 • 681 .64 .60 .56 .52 .48 .44 .40 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SOURCE: U. S. DEPART MENT OF COMMERCE " B E G I N N I N G IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN E S T I MA T I O N PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSI ONS. L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : DECEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. LO U IS .36
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