Full text of National Economic Trends : March 1986

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Economic Trends
March 1986
In late 1985, the rate of price increase accelerated, but recent reductions in oil prices have improved the near-term
outlook for prices. From September 1985 to January 1986, the consumer price index (CPI) rose at a 5.0 percent annual
rate, up sharply from the 2.5 percent rate over the previous four months. For the same periods, producer prices of finished
goods (PPI) increased at a 4.9 percent rate, after declining at a 2.6 percent rate. In February, however, the CPI declined
at a 4.6 percent rate, while the PPI fell at a 17.1 percent rate.
The current and prospective slowing is due to oil price developments. The average price of oil has fallen sharply since
December 1985 when refiners paid an average of $26.82 per barrel. The price for West Texas Intermediate Crude in
mid-March was down to about $13 per barrel in the spot market.
A decline in oil and other energy prices affects various measures of price increase differently. Broader measures of
prices are for diverse groups of goods and services, so oil purchases have relatively more effect on some measures (PPI)
than others (CPI and GNP deflator). The share of oil or energy purchases in the group of goods is an incomplete measure
of its importance because the prices for nonenergy goods and services are also influenced by the relative importance of
oil and energy in their production.
In the table below, the rates of change of the broad measures and PPI for energy (fuel, related products and power)
are shown for several periods when the latter changed sharply relative to prices generally. When such changes occur,
broad measures of prices generally are affected in the same direction, though some relatively more than others. The recent
decline in oil prices will reduce the PPI relatively more than the CPI, which, in turn, is affected more than the GNP
deflator. The timing of price effects also differs, with the PPI tending to adjust more quickly than the CPI and the GNP
deflator adjusting more slowly (about five quarters).

Annual Rates of Increase of Price Measures
Periods
IV/1973-ÜI/1974
IV/1978-H/1981
Ü/1981-IV/1985

PPI-energy
78.8%
35.6
- 2 .4
Dec. 1985-Feb. 1986
-4 9 .7

PPI

-

CPI

18.3%

11.8 %

12.2

12.1

2.1

4.4
- 0 .4

12.6

GNP deflator
9.5%
9.2
4.5
N.A.


Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f th e Federal Reserve System.


—John A. Tatom

t o t a l c i v i l i a n e iP U X Y w e r r *
C0HPQUNP60 A>#*UAL RATTS OF CHAN6€

IN IT IA L

TERMINAL
NOHTH
7-84
8-64

- 2 ,7

$-64.

9-64

10-64 11-84

12-64

1-85

2-65

3—65

THOUSANDS
OF

MONTH

4-65

5-65

6-65

7-65

10-65

9-85

£-85

n-65

12-65

1-66
105 ,2 2 2
1 05 ,4 1 5

9-64

- 0 .3

2 .2

10-64-

0 .7

2 .5

2 .8

11-64

1 .4

2 .9

3 .2

3 .6

12-64

I ♦8

3 .0

3 .2

3 .4

3 .2

1-65

1 .6

2 .5

2 .6

2 .5

2 .0

0 .8

2-65

we

2 .6

2 .7

2 .7

2 .3

1 .9

3 .1

1 0 5 ,6 5 7
1 05 ,9 7 1
1 0 6 ,2 4 8
106 ,3 1 5
1 06 ,5 6 7
106,951

3-65

2 .1

2 .8

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

2 .7

3 .6

4 .2

4-65

1 .8

2 .4

2 .4

2 .3

2 .1

1 .8

2 .1

1 .6

- 0 .9

5-65

i .7

2 .2

•2 .2

2 .1

1.8

1 .6

1.8

1.3

-0 .1

0 .8

6-65

1 .2

1 .6

1 .5

1 .3

1 .0

0 .7

0 .6

0. 0.

- 1 .3

- 1 .5

- 3 .7

106 ,8 7 2
1 0 6 ,9 3 9
106 ,6 0 1
106,871

.7-8-5

1.3

1.7

1.7

1 .5

1 .3

1 .0

1 .0

0 .6

-0 .2

0 .0

- 0 .4

3 .1

8-65

1.5

1 .9

1 .9

1 .8

1 .6

1 .4

1 .4

1 .2

0 .6

1.0

1 .0

3 .5

3 .9

9-65

1 .7

2 .0

2 .0

1 .9

1 .8

1 .6

1 .7

1 .5

1 .1

1.5

1 .6

3 .5

3 .7

3 .5

10-85

1.8

2 .1

2. 1

2 .0

1 .9

1 .8

1 .9

1 .7

1 .4

1 .8

2 .0

3 .4

3 .6

K a

3 .3

11-65

1 .8

2. 1

2 .1

2 .0

1 .9

1 .8

1 .9

1 .7

1 .4

1.8

It?

3 .1

3 .1

2 .9

2 .5

1 .8

1 .9

1 .8

1 .6

1.9

2 .0

3 .0

3 .0

2 .2

2 .7

1 0 7 ,2 1 0
1 0 7 ,5 1 9
1 0 7 ,8 1 3
1 07 ,9 6 9
1 08 ,2 0 6

L2-65

1 .8

2.1

2 .1

2 .1

1 .9

1 .8

2 .6

2 .6

1-66

2 .2

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .6

2 .8

3 .8

3*?

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

5 *6

8 .6

2-66

1 .8

2 .1

2. 1

2 .1

2 .0

1 .9

1 .9

1 .9

1 .6

1.9

2 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .5

2 .3

2 .1

2 .2

2 .0

- 4 .3

7-84

8-84

9-64

10-84

11-84 12-64

1-65

¿-65

3-65

4—65

5-65

¿- 6 5

7-05

6-65

11-65 12-65

1-66

.

10-95

1 0 8 ,9 5 5
1 08 ,5 6 1

INITIAL 'HtONTH
•SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTOM OF CHART O P P O S IT E

PA O f

PAYROLL ENPLOYWFNT
COHPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES O f CHANGE
IN IT IA L

THOUSANDS
w w a rs

MONTH

MOSNTH
T-e-4
$-64

3 .6

9—64

4 .0

8-64

9-84

10-64 11-84

12-64

1-65

2- 85

3-65

4-85

5-65

6—65

7-65

8-65

9-65

10-65

11-85

12-65

1—66
9 4 ,8 9 3

4 .5

9 5 ,2 3 6
9 5 ,5 7 3

10-64

4 .1

4 .4

4 .3

11-64

4 .1

4 .2

4 .1

3 .9

U-84

3 .8

3 .8

3 .6

3 .3

2 .7

1-65

3 .8

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

3 .4 .

9 5 ,6 6 2
9 6 ,0 9 2
9 6 ,4 1 9

4 .2 .

9 6 ,5 9 1

2-65

3 .6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .2

3 .0

3 .2

2 .2

3-65

3 .7

3 .7

3 .5

3 .4

3 .3

3 .4

3 .1

4 .0

4—65

3 .5

3 .5

3 .4

3 .3

3 .1

3 .2

2 .9

3 .3

2 .6

9 6 ,9 1 0
9 7 ,1 2 0

5-65

3 .6

3 .6

3 .5

3 .3

3 .2

3 .4

3 .2

3 .5

3 .2

3 .8

¿- 6 5

3 .3 .

3 .3

3 .1

3 .0

2 .9

2 .9

2 .6

2 .8

2 .3

2 .2

0 .6

9 7 ,4 2 1

7-65

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .0

2 .9

2 .9

2 .7

2 .8

2 .5

2 .4

1 .8

2

9 7 ,4 7 3
9 7 ,7 0 7

2 .9

9 7 ,9 7 7

6-65

3 .3

3 .2

3. 1

3 .0

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .3

3 .1

3 .4

9-65

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .0

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2*7

2 .5

3 .1

3 .2

3 .0

10-65

3 .3

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .0

3. 1

3 .0

2 .9

3 .0

2 .8

3 .4

3 .5

3 .6

9 6 ,2 1 7 »
9 6 ,5 5 9

4 .3

11-65

3 .3

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .0

3. 1

3 .0

2 .9

3 .0

2 .9

3 .3

3 .4

3 .4

3 .6

3 .0

_.U_-65

3 .3

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .1

3. 1

3 .0

3 .0

3. 1

2 .9

3 .3

3 .4

3 .4

3 .6

3 .3

3 .5

1-66

3 .4

3 .4

3 .3

3 .3

3 .2

3 .3

3 .2

3 .2

3 .3

3 .2

3 .6

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

3 .9

4 .4

5 .2

2-66

3 .4

3 .4

3 .3

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3 .5

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .6

3 .6

4 .0

2 .6

7-64

8-64

9-64

*- 6 5

6—§5

7-65

12-«5

1-64

10-64 11-64

1-45

2- 65

5-65

H 5

*- 6 5

9 8 ,8 0 1
9 9 ,0 6 6
9 9 ,5 0 7 P
9 9 ,7 3 3 P

» i i i — iIBBH U -P * 6 L IN IN A * Y




”
P * m « D
MARCH 7 ,

2

«V"PrnfWiLHKWVf H R K W
19*6

ST. U5UI5

EMPLOYMENT
r a t io

RATIO

s c a l e

M I L L I ONS

OF

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PERSONS

M I L L IONS

OF

SCALE

PERSONS
120

I 15
I 10

105

100

95

90

85

80

75
1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984
s o iR c t.

ec« ihm i t * ja m va a y i m ,

total

»C A *?***

AMO

Of

I MM 1 9ftAT I OH

P C R C C ir T A tt S

A JtE

LATEST

PLO TTEO .

OAT A

AM M VAL

u * io m r r

L M IftR A T IO N

RATES

Of

P E M fA A Y

CHANGE

data

I H C Ä 6 A4 I T O T A L
FO R

P E R 100$

• .$ .ô £ P A n m irT of l a w *

r R o c t a m s for e s t im a t im *

E M f lO Y lÄ H T

BY

A 8 0W T

0 .3 1 .

IÄ IC A T E O .

UNEMPLOYMENT




1986

P R É JL I M I H A R Y
P R E f A R E I*

SEASONALLY

PERCENT

mc*

ih c o r po h a t e

1985

BY

FED ERA I

R ESERVE

B A I*

Of

ST.

LOW 18

RATE

ADJUSTED

PERCENT

12. 0

I I

.

I I .0

10.

10.0

9.

9.0

8.

8.0

7.

7.0

6

.

6.0

5.

5.0

4.

1978

1979

1980

198 1

1982

1983

1984
SO U RC E.

PERC EN T
LA TEST

OF
DATA

C IV IL IA N
PLO TTED.

LABOR

U .S .

1985

1986

O EPAA TM EH T

OF

LABOR

ST.

L O U IS

FO RCE

FEBRUA RY
PREPA RED

3

BY

FED ERA L

R ESERVE

B A I«

OF

4.0

CONSUMER P R IC E

INDEX FQft__AU. URBAN C O N S U L S , SEASONA L LY A D JU ST fO
COHPOLf«OEO A * « JA L RATES OF CHAHGE

TERM INAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L
8-64

7-84

9-64

10—84 11—84

12-64

1-85

2-85

MONTH
4—65

3-65

1967*100
5-85

6-85

5 .1

9 —6 4

4 .7

4 .3

10-64

4 .4

4 .1

3 .9

11-64

3 .9

3 .5

3 .1

1-66

12-65

3 1 4 .7
2 .3

3 1 5 .3
316. 1

2 .7

3 .1

2 .6

2 .7

3 .3

3 .1

2 .9

3 .1

3 .1

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

3 .5

3 .5

3 .8

4 .0

4 .8

5 .8

4-65

3 .9

3 .7

3 .6

3 .6

3 .8

4 .0

4 .6

5 .0

5-65

3 .6

3 .6

3 .5

3 .5

3 .6

3 .8

4 .1

4 ,2

3 .4

2*7

6-65

3 .7

3 .5

3 .5

3 .4

3 .6

3 .6

3 .9

3 .9

3 .3

2 .8

3 .0

3 .3

3 .3

3 .4

3 .4

3 .6

3 .6

3 .0

2*6

2 .6

2 .3

3 .4

3.5-

3 .2

2-65

3 .6

3-65

3 .6

11-65

3 1 3 .7

• 2 .9

3 .7

1-85

7-05

10-85

9-85

8-65

3 12 *6

8 —64

12—84

7-85

3 .4

3. 1

3 1 6 .7

2 .3

3 1 7 .7
3 1 9 .¿
3 2 0 .3

4 .2

3 2 1 .0
3 2 1 .8
3 2 2 .4
3 2 3 .1

6-65

3 .5

3 .4

3 .3

3 .2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

3 .4

3 .0

2 .6

2 .6

2 .4

2 6

9-65

3 .4

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3 .2

3 .2

3 .3

3*3

2 .8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .4

2 4

2*3

10-65

3 .5

3 .4

3 .3

3 .2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

3 .4

3. 1

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

3 l

3 .4

4 .5

11-65

3 .7

3 .6

3 .5

3 .5

3 .6

3 .7

3 .8

3 .8

3 .5

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

4 l

4 .5

5 .7

12-65

3 .7

3 .6

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .7

3 .9

3 .9

3 .7

3 .6

3 .7

3 .8

4

4 .5

5 .3

5 .7

1-66

3 .8

3 .7

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .8

3 .9

3 .$

3 .7

^ .6

3.Ö

3 .4

A l

i TT "

5 .0

T71

4T3~

2 .9

3 .0

¿ .6

1 .2

- 0 .4

- 4 .6

6-65

9-65

10-65

11-65

12-65

1-86

3 .3

3 .2

3 .1

3. 1

3 .1

3. 1

3 .2

T r 0-4

8 —64

9-64

10-84

11-84

12-64

1-65

2-66

3. 1

2-85

l

2 .9

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 8

3-85

4-65

5-65

6-85

T-85

IN IT IA L

3 2 3 .7
3 2 4 .9
326. 7

6 .9

PRODUCER P R IC E IN O E X , F IN IS H E D GOOOS - s e a s o n a l l y
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L
7-64

8-64

9-84

10-64 11-04

12-64

l- ? 5

2-85

3-85

- 2*0

9-64

- 1 ,0

0 ,0

10-64

- 1 .0

- 0 .4

11-64

0 ,1

0 ,8

1 ,2

3 .3

12-64

0*2

0*0

1 ,1

2 ,1

0 .6

1-65

0 .1

0 .5

0 .6

1. 1

0 .0

-0 * 8

5-85

1967 ■ 100
6-85

7-65

8-65

9-85 10-65

12-65

1-66

2 9 2 .1
2 9 1 .9

0 ,5

0 .8

0 .0

- 0 .4

. 0 .0

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

0 .1

-0 .1

0 .2

0 .4

4-65

0 .8

1.1

1 .3

1 .7

1 .3

1 .4

2 .2

3 .3

6 .3

1 .8

1 .6

1 .7

2 .4

3 .2

4 .6

2 .9

1 .5

2 9 1 .9
2 9 2 .0
2 9 3 .5
2 9 4 .2

i,o

1,3

6-65

0 .7

0 .9

1 .1

1 .3

1 .0

1 .0

1 .4

1 .8

2 .2

0 .2

- 2 .4

7-85

0 .9

l.l

1 .2

1 .5

1 ,2

1 .3

1.7

2 .0

2 .4

1 .1

0 .2

8-65

0 ,5

0 ,7

0 .8

0 .9

0 ,7

0 .7

0 .9

1 .0

1 .2

—0 . 1

- 1. 1

- 0 .4

- 3 .6

0 ,1

0 ,1

0 .2

- 0 .1

-0 . 2

-0 .2

-0 .2

- 0 .3

- 1 .5

- 2 .6

- 2 .7

- 5 .4

- 7 .1

0 ,9

NO

1,1

0 .9

0 ,9

I .1

1 .3

0 .6

0 .2

0 .8

O .l

2 .1

1 2 .2

2 .0

2 .2

2 .4

1 .9

1 .7

2 .6

2 .5

4 .6

1 1 .0

9 .8

11-65

11-85

2 9 1 .9

0 ,4

7

L O U IS

2 9 1 .3

O tl

t

ST*

2 9 1 .1

0 .1

O

*27.7"

A D JU ST ED *

-0 .8

2 —95

- O tl

R ESE R V E PANK O f

MONTH

4-65

3-65

10-65

3 ¿ 9 .0

2 9 1 .3

8-64

5-65

4.1

WONTH

PREPA REO 6Y FEO ERA L
MARCH 2 5 , 1 9 *6 '

TE Rn INAL
MONTH

3 2 7 .9

4 .5

1,3

1 ,5

1 ,6

1 ,0

1 .6

1 ,7

2 9 3 .6
2 9 4 .3

2 .9

2 9 3 .4
2-91.6
2 9 4 .4
2 9 6 .7

1*6

1 .6

1 .9

2 .1

2 .0

2 .1

2 .4

2 .6

2 .9

2 .5

2*4

3 .2

3 .3

5 .1

9 .5

8 .2

6 .7

1-66

1 .0

1 .2

1.3

1 .4

1 .3

1 .3

1 .5

1 .6

1*8

1 .3

1.1

1 .6

1 .4

2 .4

4 *9

2 .6

- 0 .8

2-66

0 .0

0 .1

0 .1

0 .2

-0 .1

-0 . 1

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 *1

- 0 .7

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

- 1 .5

- 1 .2

- 2 .7

- 6 .6

7-64

6 —64

9—3 4

10-64

11-64 12-44

1-05

2-85

3-85

4—85

5-6 5

b -d $

7-84

6 - i*

<>-85 1^-65

il- 6 5

tN lT lA L

*OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V IS E O




TO R E f L E C T

0. 1

2 9 8 .3
- 7 .8

2 9 6 .3

- 1 2 .6 - 1 7 .1

12-65

2 9 1 .7

1-66

N O N tH

LATE R EPO R T IN G ________________________________________________________________________________________

¿*épat t b
KAÄCH

4

14,

b 'ÿ - m X & k i k t tÇ k v F T Â m
1986

ö* ST. I Ö U U




RATIO

PR I C E S

SCALE

RATIO

SCALE

1967-100

CO*M*( CA M i c e
C f l - V »ATA
ftH C Í(n A « € $

INMK

« « I N N I * « JA WA A Y 1 9 7 $ 1$ f 0 * A l l Wt *A # 0 0 « « « * $
1 9 * 4 l # C O V O * A T i A 8 f MTlAJL ( 0 9 I V A i ( M C t « U M ( f 0 *

AAE AJHMQAi. M T Í > Of

CHA«(

fO * reiU O **

(C M -*).
HOWCOVMCMHI f

COSTÌ.

IM p lC A U D .

LATcsi o*t a n o n e » . ío m a h y
rttrA Jie»

PRODUCER

RA T 10 S C A L E
1967-100

SEASONALLY

f C A C Í N T A M í A At AXNWAl
LA teai

oaia

fio rito .

*AT6¿

rteaoA *Y

OF C H A W t

IT

Í LMJlAJL

Jtm ftV t

PRICES

I A N * Of

10*18

R A T I0 S C A L E
1967-100

AOJUSTEO

PO* f C A l O O »

ST.

I M tH CA U O.

f ae fA rtC O

er

fc o e t A L

* c«í*ve

6 a toc o f

$ 1 . lo o i t

P R O W C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D CO NSIHER FQOOS - SEASONALLY A D JU ST ED *
_____________________ ANHMAl RATES Of CHANSE_____________________________________________

J E M I M A L _____________________________________________________________ lìm

_____________________________________________________ _________ 1967_;. 100

W .

MONTH
7-84
8 —84

- 2 .2

. a -04

9—64

10—84 11-04

12—0 4

1-85

2-05

3-05

5-65

4—05

6-05

7—05

$-65

9-05

10-65

ii - 6 5

12-65

1-66
274 t 3
2 7 4 .0

9-84

-1*7

-1*3

10-04

- 1 ,6

- 1 .3

-1*3

11-64

-1*1

-0*7

- 0 *4

2 7 3 .7
0 .4

2 7 3 .0
2 7 4 .7

12-84

—o * i

0*4

uo

2 .2

4 .0

1—05

- 0 .8

- 0 .5

- 0 .3

0 .0

- 0 .2

—4* 3

2-85

—0 ♦7

- 0 .5

-0*4

- 0 .1

. - 0 .3

- 2 .4

2 7 3 .7
2 7 3 .6
2 7 2 .4

3 —85

- 1 .3

- 1.2

- 1 .2

- l.l

- 1 .5

- 3 .3

- 2 .0

- 5 .1

4—85

- 1 .9

-1*9

- 2 .0

-2. 1

- 2 .6

—4 .2

- 4 .2

- 6 .0

—6 . 0

5-85

_ - 2 ,7

-2*9

-2*9

- 3 .2

-3*0

- 5 .2

- 5 .5

-7. 1

-0. 1

- 9 .3

6-85

-2*5

- 2*6

- 2 .7

- 2 .9

- 3 .4

- 4 .5

- 4 .6

- 5 .6

- 5 .7

- 5 .2

7-85

-1*4

- 1 .4

- 1 .4

-1*4

- 1*6

- 2 .4

- 2 .0

- 2 .4

- 1 .6

5 .2

1 1 .0

8-05

- 1 .9

-1*9

0
<NJ
1

- 0 .4

- 2. 1

- 2 .3

- 3 .1

- 2 .9

- 3 .3

- 3 .0

- 2 .0

0 .6

1 .3

- 2 .0

- 2 .9

- 3 .2

—4 . 0

- 4 .0

- 4 .5

- 4 .4

- 3 .9

- 2 .4

- 2 .9

- l. 1

- 1 .1

-1 .2

- 1 .7

- 1 .4

- 1 .5

- 1 .0

0 .0

2 .0

2 .7

9-85

- 2*6

- 2 .7

10-85

- 1*2

- It i

11-05

—0*2

- 0 .1

0 .0

0. 1

0 .0

- 0 .3

12-85

0 .3

0 .4

0 .6

0 .7

0 .7

0 .4

270 .0
2 6 6 .6
2 6 0 .4

- 0 .9

0. 1

4. 1

2 7 0 .0

2 1 .7

4 .0

5 .0

3 .4

7 .5

10.1

1 4 .6

2 .0

4 .7

5 .7

4 .5

7 .9

1 5 .0

1 1.0

9 .1

2 .0

3 .5

4. 1

2 .9

5 .3

9 .0

6 .0

2 .0

- 4 .7

- 0 .3

l.l

3 .7

- 0 .3

- 4 .9

- 1 1 .2

- 1 7 .2

0—65

9-05

10-65

11-Ò5 12-05

l- 6 o

0. 3

0 .3

0 .0

0 .4

0 .5

l.l

2-86

- l.o

- 0 .9

- 0 .9

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

- 1 .3

- 1.1

- 1 .1

- 0 .0

-0. 1

0 .9

1 .2

7-84

8-84

9—04

10-04

11-04

12-64

1-05

2-85

3-05

4-05

5-85

6-05

I n it ia l
LATE REPO RTIN G

*\
1

2 .0

1 .7

CD

0 .0

1 .0

0 .2

TO r e f l e c t

-0. 1

0. 1

0 .1

R E V IS E D

2 6 6 .4

0. 1

0 .0

ago

2 6 9 .0

-^9.6 - 1 1 .0

0 .9

1-86

»d a t a FOR FOUR. m o n t h s

2 7 0 .9
-6 .1

2 7 3 .9
2 7 5 .9
2 7 4 .0
2 7 0 .5

nonth

PRODUCER P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D GOODS, EXCLUDING FOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A O JU ST ED *
_____________________________ COHPOUNQED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_________________________________
IN IT IA L

TERMINAL

1967 *

MONTH

100

m o n th

10-84

11-04

12H?4

1-05

2-05

3-05

4-65

5-65

6-05

CO

9-64

0-65

9-05

10-05

9-64

-0 *8

Or 4

10-6 4

- 0 .7

0 .0

- 0 .4

11—04

0*4

1.2

1 .6

3 .7

12-64 •

0 ,3

0*9

1*1

1*0

o .o

1-65

0 .3

0 .8

0 .9

1 .4

0 .2

0 .4

2 9 4 .8

2 9 5 .6
295*6
2 9 5 .7
295 .6

2-85

0 .2

. 0*6

0*7

0*9

0 *0

0 .0

- 0 .4

0*6

0 .9

1*0

1 .3

0 .7

1 .0

1 .2

2 .9

4-6 5

1*7

2*1

2*4

2*9

2*7

3 .4

4 .4

6 .9

2*2

2*7

3 *0

3 .5

3 .4

4 .1

5 .1

6 .9

9 .0

7 .0

1*7

2 .0

2 .2

2 .6

2 .4

2 .0

3 .3

4 .2

4 .7

1.6

- 3 .5

1 .6

N ?

2 .0

2 .3

2 .1

2 .4

2 .0

3 .4

3 .6

1.2

- 1 .6

1 .7

1 .9

2 9 6 .3
2 9 0 .9

U .l
3 0 0 .6

2-9?. 7
0 .4

29-9.8

.it3 .

1 .6

1 .7

1 .9

2 .1

2 .5

2 .4

0 .4

- 1 .7

-0 . 0

- 2 .0

9-65

0*8

NO

1 .0

l.l

0 .9

1 .0

l.l

1.3

1 .0

- 0 .9

-2 .0

- 2 .5

-3.9-

IQ -45

1*3

1 .6

1 .7

1*0

1 .7

1 .0

2 .0

2 .3

2 .2

0 .0

- 0 .4

0 .4

0 .4

1 .6

9 .7

2 .2

3 .7

0 .0

7 .9

2 9 9 .3
- 5 .9

29 7 .8
3 0 0 .1

I T7

2 t<?

2 .1

2 .3

2 .2

2 .4

2 .6

2 .9

2 .9

1.0

0 .9

1 .9

2 tJ2_ .

2 .2

2 .3

2 .5

2 .4

2 .6

2 .0

3 .2

3 .2

2 .3

1 .6

2 .5

2 .9

4 .2

7 .7

6 .0

5 .7

1-66

1.4

1.6

1 .6

1 .0

1 .6

1 .7

1 .9

2 .1

2 .0

1 .0

0 .3

0 .9

0 .9

1 .5

3 .5

1 .5

- 1 .6

£-*6

0 .3

0 .4

0 .4

0 .5

0 .2

0 .3

0 .2

0 .3

0 .1

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

- 1 .6

- 1 .9

- 1 .9

- 1 .0

- 3 .6

7-84

8-64

9-64

10-04

11—64

12-64

1-04

à-é5

4^ST

7-45

è-è 5

11-65
12-9?

..

1-66

12-65

2 9 4 .7

3-85

8-65 ..

11-05

294 .7

-2 *0

6-65

...

8-64

A

7-84
0—04

•DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V IS E D




3 0 2 .0
3 0 3 .4
- 6 .4

- 7 . 1 - 1 2 .9

301 .2
- 1 7 .2

296 .5

10-45

I M I T I A i 1HOWTW
TO R E F L E C T LA TE R EPO R T IN G

IsggPTfffft é T T t b t t l L ' KgSgftVt~b À W ~Of S T . LOUIS
Nà AjCH | 4 ,

6

1966

INDUSTRIAL
RATIO

PRODUCTION
RATIO

SCALE

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

rtA C tW T A tt« AJtC AMM9U 'A T '* 0? CtUAtt f 0 « fU lO O S
IA U S T

OATA

flO T T C O t

FC-M 9AAY

SCALE

1967-100

SEASONALLY AOJUSTED

1967-100

1984

1985

1986

I MO I CATC^O.

P U fc L I M I M AJtT
fttfA Jrw

in o u s tm a l

or

fc o tm a

i t i a v !

»am c

o f

it .

i» * i$

p r o o u c t io w

C W P O U N P E P AHHUAl RATES O f CHAUCE
1977 »

HE RHINA L
MONTH
7 -6 4

8 -M

9 -6 4

1 0 -6 4

ll-»4

1 2 -8 4

l-$ 3

2 -6 3

3 -8 3

4 -6 3

3 -6 3

6 -6 3

7 -8 5

$ -6 3

»»S 3

1 0 -6 3

1 1 -6 3

1 2 -6 5

I -«6

3«0
9-64

123 . 3
12 3 *3

9 t?

-N9

10—64

-1 .6

-3 .8

U^4

0 ,5

- 0 ,3

Q tZ

- Q t? ____ SLtO____ ? t Q

0*3____ L d _

0*2

0 .7

0 .7

0 .3

0 .8

1 ,0

0 .7

I . 1

4-65

1*0

0*7

1*1

5-65

0 *9

0*6

6 -6 3 __

1*0

7-Ç3

0*7

6-65

I *3

2-65
3-83

.

1 2 2 *7

-3 *7

0 .7

1-63

100

3 .0

12 3 *3

- It Q

123 * 6

1 .0

3 .0

2*5

1 ,0

2*0

1*0

2 *6

1 .5

2 .3

2 .0

2 .9

2*3

1*4

2 .0

1*6

2*0

1 .0

1*0

2 ,0

l.l

1 .6

1.2

1 .3

0 .3

0 .0

0*6

l.l

2 .0

1 .3

1 .6

1 .4

1 .5

1 .0

1 .0

0 .3

0 .6

1 .5

0 .9

1. 1

0 .8

0 .8

0 .2

1.4

1 .7

2 .4

1 .9

2 .3

2 .2

2 .4

2 .3

2 .7
1.9

123 .7
1 2 4 .0
124.1
124. 1
1 24 .3

2 .0

124.1

0 .0

- 1 .9

3 .6

4 .4

11.2

123 .2
1 25 .1

9-65

1 *3

1.2

1 .5

2 .1

1 .7

2 .0

1 .8

1 .9

1.8

2 .4

2 .6

4 .9

- 1 .0

10-65

0*6

0 .6

0*6

1*4

0 .9

I. 1

0 .9

0 .9

0 .6

0 .6

0 .2

i.o :

- 3 .6

—6*5

11-65

1*3

1*2

1*5

2 .0

1 .6

1 .9

1.8

1.8

1 .7

2. 1

2 .1

3 .2

0 .6

1 .4

1 0.1

12-65

I .8

1*7

1*9

2 .5

2 .2

2 .4

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

2 .7

3 .1

3 .2

4 .3

2 .7

3 .9

9 .3

9 .0

1-66

1 .8

1.7

1 .9

2 .3

2-1

2 .4

2 .3

2 .5

2 .4

2 .6

2 .9

3 .1

3 .9

2 .5

3 .4

6 .9

5 .4

1*9

2-66

1 .3

1.2

1 .4

1 .8

1 .5

1 .7

1 .6

1 .6

1 .5

1 .5

1*7

1 .7

2 .2

0 .8

1 .2

3 .2

1 .0

- 2 .8

- 7 .3

7-64

8-64

9-64

10-64

11-64

12-64

1-65

2-65

5-83

4-83

5-65

¿-6 5

7-85

8-45

*-65

10-65

11-83

12-63

1-66

124 .4
123*4
1 26 .3
1 2 6 .5P
1 2 5 .7P

" i w im i 'w w T w
P- P R E L IM IN A R Y




WÉPAfcjfìT'&V- P'?frefcÀt f r R É S V m W
MARjC-H 1 4 ,

7

1966

t* ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL
RATIO

SCALE

monthly

T R J..L L I O.N-S, OlF

DOLLARS

totals

INCOME
at

annual

RATIO

rates

ADJUSTED

seasonally

TRILLIONS

3.

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

3.7
3.6
3.5
3*. 4
3.3
3. 2

3. I
3.0
2.9

3.
3.
2 .

2

.

2

.

2

.

2

.

2 .

2.
2.
2 .

2.
I

I .9

.

I , 8

I .7
I .6
1978

1979

1980

1982

198 1

1983

1984

¿o rn e .
rU tC £ * T A fr€ $

A*E

LA TEST

PLO TTED .

DATA

ANNUAL

H A TES

Of

FEBRUARY

CHAM 4E

f4>ft

P E D IO O S

.1985

1986

u .s . depammént of c o a y f ic t

IH O l C A T E O .

P * £ L IIIIK A A Y
PR EPA RED

PERSONAL

8Y

FED ERA L

R ESERVE

8AKX

Of

ST.

LO O I S

INCOME

■
CQWPQJUNQED AftfUAL RATES O F
IN IT IA L

TFtWTWát

B IL L IO N S

MONTH

OF

d o lla rs

ANNUAL KATES
9-44

10-44

ñ-tUr

7 .3
ft .?

ft.9

10—4 4

5*6

4*7

0 *6

11-44

5*9

5*3

3*6

6 .6

6 *3

¿-3

3 .4

7*9

11—&4

___ 2-85

12-44

3-85___4-43___ 5-45

7-83

8-43

»-4 5

10-43

1 1-4?

12-45___ l-fr6
3 .1 4 3 .1

3 .1 ¿ 5 ,5
3 » 1 67 .2
3 , 144 . 0
3 ,2 0 7 .4

9*2

3 ,2 1 7 .3

6*1

5*8

5*0

6 .5

6 .4

3 .6

A .A

6-7

6 .3

7*8

4 *2

7*7

1 1.7

*4-45

6*3

6*4

5 *9

7*0

7 .2

6 .5

7 .9

4 .1

4-43

7*1

7*0

6 *4

7*8

4 .1

7 .8

9 .2

7 .9

1 1 .8

3-A3

3 .7

3 .5

3*1

5 .7

5 .6

4 .8

5*1

3 .0

2 .4

- 6 .2

A-A3

3*5

5*3

4 *9

5 *4

5*3

4 *6

4 .8

3 .1

2 .8

- 1 .5

3 .5

7-45

5*3

5*1

4 *7

5 .2

5 .0

4 .5

4 .6

3 .2

3 .0

0 .2

3 ,5

1-43

6-43

3 ,2 4 7 .2

3 ,2 4 8 .6
3 ,2 7 1 .2
3 ,2 8 0 .5
3 ,2 9 0 .0 .

3 ,5

3 ,2 9 5 .5

4 .7

4 .1

4 .2

3 .0

2 ,4

0 .6

3 ,0

2 .8

Z *o

4 .8

4 .3

4 .3

3 .3

3 .2

1 .6

3 ,6

3 .*

3 .7

3 .8

2 ,6

4 *4

4 ,7

5 ,0

6 ,6

7 .8

4 .1

3 .0

4*7

4 .9

5 *3

6*3

6 .8

5 .9

5 .2

__ 4 .4

6 .0

6 .4

7 .0

8 .3

9 ,3

10.1

1 4 .4

4 .7

4 .4

4 ,0

5 .4

5 .6

6 .0

6-* 8

7 .2

6 .9

7 .5

1 .0

5 .4

4 .9

5 .0

4*3

5 .5

5 ,8

6 ,1

6 ,8

7 .1

7 .0

7 .3

4 .0

7 .0

1-45

2-85

3-85

4-45

5-45

6-45

T-85

4-45

9-85

10-45

11-85

12-45

1-46

4-43

5*1

4*8

4 *5

4 .9

_ 9-45

5 .L

4*9

4 *6

4 .9

10-43

5*3

5*1

4 *4

5 .2

5 .0

4 .6

4 .7

3 .9

11-A3

5*3

5*1

4 *9

5*2

5 .1

4 *7

4*8

4 .1

12-45

5*4 ___5 .7 -

5*5

5*8

5 .5

5 .7

5 .1

1-46

5 .5

3*4

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5 .2

5*3

2-AA

5 *¿

5*5

5 .3

5 .6

5 .5

5 .3

7—44

4-44

9-44

10-44 11-44 12-44

.

3 ,2 5 8 .2

IN IT IA L

5 .4

3 ,3 0 9 .9
3 ,3 3 0 .7
3 ,3 4 6 .6
3 ,3 4 4 .3
3 ,3 4 7 .1
3 ,4 0 6 .3 P

MONTH

f*- PfLBLlM THAAt




F *C P A *EO 4Y F F O S U L
NAAjCH 2 0 , 1946

8

R E S E R V É BANK. OF ST* L O U IS

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES
R A T 1=0 S C A L E

SCALE

B I L L IONS

OF

1978

S€ A*4MAUY ADJUSTED

DOLLARS

1979

I960

1981

1982

BILLlOtiS

1983

1984
e .9 .

P C fttttfT A lO

AA£

lA U t T

n # T T t* .

DATA

AM M OAl

IU T C $

JA W ART,

CM AM ftC
f t * * * AÄY

F M

ft A lfr fS

A*VA *C€

OF

19*5
O C P A t T M C lf t

DOLLARS

1986
W

C 0 M M C JU 4

IM U C A T L D .

t $ T lU A T C

M tfA M ft t t f t K A A t It W i t V t » A M #f $T. i H l t

ftF T A lL S A L E S

CWQWOtQ

AfffttAL M TES OP CBAttfrg

INITIAL HOWTW

fi i u i t m
Of
DOLLARS

MONTH
9-« 4 10—€4

11-A4 12-04

1—85

6 -*3

?- 6 ?

9-«?

IH ?

11-85

12—8?

1-84

7—€4

ft-04

4 .6

1 1 .5

106 ,3 7 3
1 0 6 ,9 7 4

H 5

3—85

4-85

H 5

8—6 ?

10 7 .3 9 6

Ä-Ä4

10-84

5 *4

9 .1

6 *9

11-04

7 .7

1 1 .1

1 0 .9

1 5.1

12-04

5

7 .6

6 .3

6 .0

- 2 .3

6 *4

8 .2

7*4

7*5

4 *0

1 0 .6

2-03

7 .3

8 .9

ft.4

8 . ft

6 . ft

1 1 .7

1 2 .9

3-05

6 *0

7 .2

6 .5

6 .5

4 .4

6 .8

4 *9

—2 i-6
4 4 .7

1—85

1 10 ,2 5 5
110*042
110 ,9 7 2
1 12 ,0 9 6
1 11 ,8 5 4
1 15 ,3 5 1

4—65

9 *8

1 1 .3

1 1.3

1 2 .0

1 1.5

1 5 .2

1 6.7

18*7

5-05

8 .2

9 .4

9 .1

9 .5

8 .6

1 0 .9

1 1 .0

10*-3

17*4

- 4*8

4-85

6 .3

7 .1

6 .6

6 .6

5 .5

6 .8

6 *1

4^4

6 .9

- 8 .1

- 1 1 .4

7-85

6 .4

7 .2

6 .7

6 .7

5 .7

6 *9

6 .3

5 *0

7 .0

- 3 .2

-2*4

Û-«5

8 .1

8 .9

8 .7

8 .9

8 .2

9 .6

9 .5

8*9

11*3

»-«5

9 .5

1 0 .4

1 0 .3

10*6

1 0.2

11*7

1 1.8

11*6

1 4 .2

LO-85

5 .4

5 .9

5 .5

5 .4

4 *6

5 .3

4 .7

3*7

4 .7

11-85

5 .4

5*9

5 .S

5 .4

4 .7

5 .3

1 14 ,6 6 4
1 1 3 ,7 3 0
1 14 ,4 1 7

7 .5

7 .5

1 8 .4

3 0*4

8 .9

12*7

2 2 *0

3 0 .0

-0*8

- 0 .1

3 *0

1*6

4 .3

4 .8

4 .0

4 .8

0 .1

0 .9

3 *6

2 *6

1 16 ,9 7 7
2 9 .7
t
o

9-64

-5*3

1 1 9 ,5 3 6
11 4 ,^ 6 0

- ? 8 .L
- 1 9 .0

5 .9

1 1 5 ,4 0 9

12—85

6 .5

7 .0

6 .7

6 .7

6 .1

6*8

6 .5

5 .9

6 .9

2 .9

4 .0

6 *9

6 *7

1*5

- 6*4

1 5 .0

2 4 .9

1-^6

6 .0

6*5

6 *2

6* L

?*?

6 *1

_?*6

5*1

5 .9

2 .3

3*3

5 .5

5 .2

0 .8

—5 *4

9 .0

1 0 .6

- 2 .1

2 .8

4 .7

4 .3

0 .5

- 4 .5

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P- P R E l iM lN A R Y
g- e s t i m a t e d




P R E P A R E 0 8Y P f O e U L
NAJRCH 1 3 , 1966

9

R E S E R V E BANK 0 * S T ,

L O U IS

HOURLY C O N P © *S A T IO W , BUS INES-S SECTOR
COKPOUNOEP A>*«LUL RATES OF CHANS€

T CRH IH AI_________________________._______________________________________________ I N I T I A L

QUARTER______________________________________ |_______________ ________________ 1977-100

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__________ COHPQIHOEO ANNUAL RATES Of CHAfftE . .
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FEBRU ARY 2*7, 19*4

10

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PRODUCTIVITY,
R A T I0 S C A L E
I977 - I O O

COMPENSATION,

AND LABOR COSTS

•
•'

R A T I0 S C A L E
197 7 - 1 0 0

S EASONALLY AOJUSTEO

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TERMINAL___________ _________________________________________________ ___________ I N I T I A L QUARTER________________________________________________________ _______________1977»100

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fCSRUAJRY Z 7P 1966

11

U 3 .6
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1 6 4 .3

BANK TH» ~ S T.

L 6 9 .0

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12

ST.

L O U IS

1

GROSS N A T I O N A L
R A T I O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF

P R OD UCT

QUARTERLY TOTAL S AT ANNUAL R A T E S

DOLLARS

S E ASONAL L Y AD J US T ED

TRILLIONS

R A T I O SCALE
OF D O L L A R S

4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2 . 8

2 . 6

4. I
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
2
I
0

9
8
7

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983
SOURCE.

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS
LATEST DATA PLOTTED.




1984
U.S.

1985

1986

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I N O I C A TE O .

4TH QUARTER
PREPARED e r FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

13

LOUIS

GENERAL
RATIO

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

1978
■A4

RATIO

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

IM M AllfMAl I MCOOt ACCOWfTS

P t t c t i r r m s arc am m u i a t e s of c*A m t ton r u u m
IA T C IT

OAT A P l O T T t O «

4 TH

1984'
. • *

SCALE

1985

1986

D V U T ì t i n Of CttMftCC

im o ic a t u .

OO AÄTUt

p u ra u

it f i K i u

tttc m

u u c of i t .

im ii

I M P L I C IT P R IC 6 OEFLATOR F OP GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
-------------------------------------------------------------- CWWJUNOfcD ANNUAL RATÉS OF CHANCE------------------------------------------------------:---------

T P RH IMAI----------------------------------------------- ---------------INITIAL QUARTER--------------------------------------------------:----------1987 ■ 100
QUARTER________________________________________
4—01
V B l
1-ÔI
Z - f ll
1-82
2-« I

2- b z

3-BZ

4—BZ

1-8 r

7-83

3-83

4-83

1—0 4

ir-B4

3-»4

4-**

1-55

Z-05

3-85

•*7

'" '" 7 7 . 8

3-61

5 .0

9 .4

4—0 I

8 .1

8*0

"9 4 .9
8 .3

V *. 8

1 -€ 2

7 .6

Y.Ö

7 .1

5 .9

2-02

7 .0

7. 1

6 .4

5 .4

5 .0

3 -«Z

6.B

6.Ö

6 .Z

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5 .4

vo .7

6 .3

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“ 5 .1

1-63

5 .9

5 .8

5. Z

4 .6

Z-63

5 .6

* .5

4 .9

4 .4

4 .1

4 .^

4 .4

4 .Z

10Ü.8

4Y7

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4 .0

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7 .“8

7. 8 '

3. Z

3. U

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3 .6

3 .6

'3 .9

4 .7

'3 . 9

3 .6

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3 .8

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3 .5

4TB
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3-63

5 .5

5 .4

A-—6 3

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5. Z

4 .7

4 .3

4. 1

1~B 4

5 .3

5 .2

4 .8

4 .4

4 .7

4. 1

3 .8

z-fl 4

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5 .1

4. 7

4 .3

4 .1

4 .0

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4-62

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101. 7
107 .4
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4-84

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3 .5

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1-81

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4-61

1-82

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1U . 1
1 1 3 .0

QUARTER

PREPA REO 8 Y FEOÇRAL R E S E R V E SANK O f S T . L O U IS
MARCH 19 » 19 86----------------------------------------

14

PERSONAL' CONSOMPTION EXPEN D IT U R ES

ÎM CURRENT OOLLARS

C0W*0UWED W fU X C THk TES O f CHAHftt
b il l io n s

T E w r im r
1-81

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1-82

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t

TE AH M A I
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1-81

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Z—65

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BY F E 0 6 R A L R E S E R V E 6ANK OF S T .

L O U IS

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COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R a t ES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L

TERM IH AL
QUARTER
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2-61

3 -5 T - V-61

2-81

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2—63

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QUARTER

GROSS P R IV A T E OOHESTIC INVESTM ENT IN 1982 DOLLARS
LUWHJUNUtU W M i l l K A f E S U K LHAHW:
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l- B 'l
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BANK OF S T .

HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly
presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for
1984:iI - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of
Current Business. Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82
and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate
volumes♦
These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy
printout♦ For further information and prices, write to the National
Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

L O U IS

I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING

AND

TRADE

68
64

.60

60

. 56

56
52
48

. 48

44
40
♦36

36

. 32

32

. 28

28
24
1972

«RATIOS

1973

1974

BASED

ON

SHADE D

AREAS

LATEST

DATA




I

REPRESENT
PLOTTEDt

1977

I

SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

PERIODS

JANUARY

OF

1978

1979

1980

1981

DATA.

BUSINESS

1982

SOURCEt

1983

1984

U . S . DEPARTMENT

1985
OF

1986

C O M M ERC E

RECESSIONS.

PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS