Full text of National Economic Trends : March 1980
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rs S T io n R L ic o n o m ic u m m PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA 3K O F ST. LOUIS MONTH ENDING: February 29, 1980 RELEASED: March 31, 1980 The U.S. economy is demonstrating considerable resiliency despite some sectoral weaknesses. As is typical of most cyclical expansions in their advanced stages, the rate of price increase has accelerated and the growth o f output has slowed. The rate of price increase has been particularly rapid in recent months, reflecting another sharp run-up in energy prices as well as expectational factors. Production growth has been sluggish since late 1978, yet employment has continued to advance, implying poor productivity performance. Industrial production in February was up at a slight 0.7 percent annual rate from December 1978 compared with a 6.6 percent average rate of expansion in the previous two years. Payroll employment, however, rose at a relatively strong 2.5 percent annual rate from December 1978 to February 1980, but less than the average rate o f advance in the 1976-78 period. Although energy prices have been an important influence, the rise in prices since late 1979 has been spread broadly over all sectors except food. The accompanying table compares producer price movements over the past two months with the previous two years. Energy prices, of course, have risen sharply, but food prices have declined or increased relatively slowly. The jump in rates of increase for finished consumer goods other than food and energy, capital equipment, and intermediate materials other than food and energy indicates that the recent surge in prices has not been attributable to special factors impinging on supply and demand in one particular sector. PRODUCER PRICES Relative importance Dec. 1979 Finished goods Consumer goods Foods Energy Other Capital equipment Intermediate materials Foods and feeds Energy goods Other 1 0 0 .0 % 19.9 % 21.9 -7.5 99.3 26.1 15.0 12.6 % 14.2 7.5 62.7 9.4 8.8 9.2 % 9.7 12.1 7.9 8.6 8.1 % 31.4% 16.9 71.8 26.0 15.9 % 8.3 42.5 12.8 8.6% 14.0 4.2 8.9 71.6 24.3 10.3 37.0 28.4 1 0 0 .0 5.1 13.6 81.3 * Computed from seasonally adjusted data. Annual rates of change* Dec. 1979 Dec. 1978 Dec. 1977 to to to Feb. 1980 Dec. 1979 Dec. 1978 TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE INITIAL MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 7 -7 8 8 -7 8 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 2 -7 9 1 -7 9 8 -7 8 4 .9 9 -7 8 3 .5 2 .2 10 -78 4*2 3 .9 5 .5 1 1 -78 4 .2 4 .0 4 .9 4 .2 12—78 376 3 .3 3 .7 2 .7 1 .3 1 -7 9 3 .7 3 .5 3 .8 3 .2 2 .7 4*2 2 -T 9 378 376 3 .9 J .I 3 .2 4*2 3 .5 > .1 2 .8 Y .J 1. A 1 .3 i.T 6 .4 -1 .5 -0 .0 3 -7 9 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 5 -7 9 4 -7 9 7 -7 9 6 -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1 -8 0 «#<♦,602 9 4 ,9 7 3 *5.<»0i ---- ■ 3—79 375 5 .3 4—*?9 ¿ .6 ¿73 5 -7 9 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .0 1 .6 1 .7 1 .1 6 -7 9 2 .6 2 .3 274 2 .0 1 .7 1 .7 1 .2 0 .5 ~ 0 . 1 2.1 nT -----2 .0 ■ 1 .6 9 5 , tt 31 V 6 ,1 5 7 ---... ---- ---- ---- T .r ----- ------- ~ V6.496~ ..................... ■' •>6,623 9 6 ,2 5 4 -0 .8 3 .0 * c — 96,V#5~ ------- 7 -7 9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .8 2 .5 2 .3 2 .4 2 .1 1 .7 1 .8 3 .9 4 .4 6 .8 8 -7 9 2 .5 2 .3 2 .3 2 .0 1 .8 1 .8 1 .5 l7 l 0 .9 274 2 .1 2 .2 9 -7 9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .7 2 .4 2 .2 2 .3 2 .1 l.flf 1 .8 3 .1 3 .2 3 .6 ~ 2 7 0 2 .6 1 0 -7 9 2 «6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 2 .1 1 .8 1 .5 1 .5 2 .6 2 .5 1 1 -7 9 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .1 2 .0 2 .0 178 175 " “ 17 5 2 .4 2 .3 “ "274 " 1 2 -7 9 2 .6 2 .5 ' 2 7 5~ 2 .3 2 .1 T .2 1 .8 1 .8 2 .6 2 .5 1 -8 0 2*4 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 1 .9 1 .9 1 .5 1 .5 2 .2 2 .0 2 -8 0 2 7 3 ” ‘ 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 1 .9 " 1 .9 1 .5 1 .5 T .l 2 .0 27T -i= n ?-T9 9 6 ,6 5 7 V 7 ,ltt* \ 1 . 5 % -2 .2 ^ ,0 0 4 ~ 6 .4 V 7.5C K 1 .2 2 .9 -0 .4 1 .3 275 “076 9 7 ,^ 7 4 2 .6 1 .8 ¿7s ~ i7 T 2 .7 3 .8 2 .1 1 .3 2 .0 0 .9 1 .4 1 .2 1 .4 2 .0 1 .1 175 1*4 Iz lf 8 -7 ? f-7 ? 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 8-79 9-79 10-79 U -79 12-79 1-80 " ii r s “ V 7.6 0 6 V 7.91 2 1 , *»! oi ! 9 5 .7 2 « ------ 7 -7 8 _9“14_ W f l W i 1 .7 1 1 -7 9 .12r l f i _ . 1 -7 9 ^•7? V 7 .6 0 4 -1 .3 ^ ~ o .j T T »o \ . 9 7 ,9 5 3 INITIAL MONTH _________ PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAtES OF~CHANtlE TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL NONTH 7-78 8-78 2*7 9-78 2.4 10—78 3*4 u - t T 12-78 470" 4*1 8-78 »-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 THOUSANOS OF PERSONS *6,8<»0 2*1 8 7 ,0 3 2 3*8 5.5 ^75 r.7~ 5.9 8 7 ,8 * 0 4*4 5*2 ~57o 0 8 ,1 3 3 o 7 ,4 2 4 8 8 ,4 3 3 8 8 .7 0 0 “ 8 9 ,0 3 9 ” 4-79 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.3 " 372“ 5-79 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 6-79 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.4 7-79 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.1 8-79 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.3 8 9 ,0 3 6 5.0 ¿9,398~ 3.2 2.7 4.0 3«! 2.9 2.8 2.3 3.1 2.1 1.2 v 278 2.6 2 .4” 1.6 0.9 0.7 v 2.0 2.5 897626 , 2 .1% 89,713 »9,702 89780F 9-79 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.7 2*5 2.3 27l 1.7 2.1 1*4 0.8 0*4 0.5 ' V 1 0 -7 9 3 .0 3 .1 3 .1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 1 .8 2 .1 1 .6 1 .2 1*2 1 .5 1 1 -7 9 2 .9 3 .0 3 .0 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .3 2 .1 1 .8 2 .1 1 .6 "173 1 .3 T 7 5 ~ T7o 1 2 -7 9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .1 1 .8 2 .0 1 .6 1*4 r^ r T .6 1 -8 0 3 .0 3 .0 3.1 2.9 2.7 2*6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 2 .0 2 -8 0 2.9 2 .9 3.0 2.8 2 .6 2.5 2.4 2.3 270“ M 270 7-78 8-78 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 f 2 .1~|~ 2.3 3-79 4-79 »-79 6-79 7-79 2.2 2^2~ 8-79 2*4 \ 8 9 ,9 8 2 1 7 6 ^ ^ 9 0 ,1 0 0 ’ ¿7o 1 .7 i . 9 \ 2.7 2.7 3.3 477^ 9 0 ,5 9 0 P 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.3 9 0 »7 3 IP 90,241” 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 j-80 initial month P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 7» 1980 EMPLOYMENT RATIO R A T I O SC A L E SC A L E MILLIONS OF P E R S O N S M I L L I O N S OF P E R S O N S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY PREPAAEO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT RATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERCENT 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF X I VILI AN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED: FEBRUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO ♦ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 8 -7 8 1967*100 8 -7 8 9 -7 8 »V 1 00 IN I T I A L MONTH 7 -7 8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 2 -7 9 1 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 6 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1 -8 0 1 9 7 .3 7 .6 19 8.9 9 -7 8 9 .9 1 0 .2 1 0 -7 8 9 .7 1 0 .8 1 1 .4 1 1 -7 8 9 .3 9 .9 9 .7 2 0 0 .7 8 .1 12 -78 9 .3 9 .7 9 .6 8 .7 1 -7 9 9 .7 1 0 .1 1 0 .1 9 .7 2 -7 9 1 0 .4 1 0 .8 1 0 .9 1 0 .8 3 -7 9 1 0 .7 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 4 -7 9 1 1 .0 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 ¿ 0 2 .0 9 .3 ¿O j .3 2 0 3 .4 1 0 .3 ' 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 3 .0 1 4 .3 ¿ 0 7 .7 1 1 .4 1 2 .2 1 3 .2 1 3 .9 1 1 .6 1 2 .3 1 3 .1 1 3 .5 1 3 .1 1 2 .7 1 2 .9 1 2 .6 \ 2 0 9 .9 1 3 .5 " 2 1 2 .0 5 -7 9 1 1 .1 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 1 .7 1 2 .3 1 3 .0 1 3 .3 6 -7 9 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .9 1 2 .0 1 2 .5 1 3 .1 1 3 .3 1 3 .1 1 3 .0 13 .1 1 3 .7 7 -7 9 1 1 .5 1 1 .9 1 2 .1 12 . 1 1 2 .7 137* 1 3 .4 1 3 .2 1 3 .1 1 3 .3 1 3 .6 1 3 .5 X 8 -7 9 1 1 .6 1 2 .0 1 2 .1 12 .2 1 2 .7 1 3 .1 1 3 .3 1 3 .1 1 3 .0 13 .1 1 3 .3 1 3 .1 1 2 . o 'ssn^ ^ 2 2 0 .9 9 -7 9 1 1 .8 1 2 .2 1 2 .3 1 2 .4 1 2 .8 1 3 .2 1 3 .4 1 3 .3 1 3 .3 1 3 .4 1 3 .6 1 3 .6 1 3 .6 14. 2 2 3 .4 10 -79 1 1 .9 1 2 .2 1 2 .3 1 2 .4 1 2 .8 1 3 .2 1 3 .3 1 3 .2 1 3 .2 1 3 .2 1 3 .4 1 3 .3 1 3 .2 1 3 .5 1 2 .5 1 1 -7 9 1 1 .9 1 2 .2 1 2 .4 1 2 .4 1 2 .8 1 3 .1 1 3 .3 1 3 .2 1 3 .1 13.2 1 3 .3 1 3 .2 1 3 .2 1 3 .3 1 2 .7 1 2 .9 12 -79 1 2 .2 1 2 .4 1 2 .6 1 2 .7 1 3 .0 1 3 .4 1 3 .5 1 3 .4 1 3 .4 1 3 .5 1 3 .7 1 3 .7 1 3 .7 1 3 .9 1 3 .7 1 4 .4 1 5 .8 1 -8 0 1 2 .5 1 2 .8 1 3 .0 1 3 .1 1 3 .4 1 3 .8 1 3 .9 1 3 .9 1 3 .9 14 .1 1 4 .3 1 4 .3 1 4 .3 1 4 .8 1 4 .9 1 5 .7 1 7 .2 1 8 .6 2 -8 0 1 2 .8 1 3 .1 1 3 .2 1 3 .4 1 3 .7 1 4 .0 1 4 .2 1 4 .2 1 4 .3 1 4 .4 1 4 .6 1 4 .8 1 4 .9 1 5 .3 1 5 .5 1 6 .2 1 7 .3 1 8 .1 Ift-ZJL. 11-78 12-78 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -79 _4-Z9. 2.-7JL_ * -7 8 1 2 .6 \ u . < 21 4.1 % 2 1 6 .4 5-79 . 6rJ9 ¿ 1 8 .7 Ir.79 ..frr_I9 2 2 3 .6 2 2 7 .9 ¿ 3 0 .7 2 3 4 .0 lT W '^ ¿ 3 7 .2 9.-79 10-79 JL1.-7V 12^29 . „ l r f l O .. IN I T I A L MONTH •CPI-W FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS ANO CLER IC AL WORKERS Pft£PAftfeO BY FEP6RAJL A£Sfcftttfc_ BANK OF S T« LOUIS HARCH 259 1980 PRODUCER PRICE IN D EX , FIN IS H ED GOOOS - SESAONAL _____________ _____££M&UNQ£iL-AIifc(jUA4»-iiAIRLjQ£-£tiAMi£- __TEJUUMAL- 1967 « 100 1M1TLAL MQHIhL MONTH 7 -7 8 8—78__ 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 b 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 __ 1=29__ 2 r J 9 , __ S -7 9 6 -7 9 __ 7 -1 9 __ 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 __ | -g Q _ S .Q ___________________ ______ ;____ ____________________________________________ ______________ _____________ _______________________________________ -1 9 7 . ft -6 l*12____& «9_ __lQ~Zft____7.fr _199*2 *£___ Zm.IL- - .11.-26____1*±- jQ »3 _Bjl2___ 9 »9 ____lr 2 5 L 10*1 11*1__ _______ 12*fr 14t $ '1 5 .B 1 0 .6 1 1 .3 1 4 .3 ___ 1 2 .0 U .Q -290.j>0- — U -r lg 2 r7 9 1 9 6 .4 1 2 .9 ___ ISbJL - I l t A . .- - L L t l __ l ? t 7 13*3 l? t l, ¿QA jlL . 13 t 9 12t9 !?♦£ __LL*2 — 5 b Z9 ___Jtfl«* . lP .t f . 11.0 11.4— l l t f i __ 11.5 11.2 11 .4 1 1.6 11.2__ L I . 7 11«? 10.4___ S>4 ll.it ..-1 1 .2 ...1 f t t S — M U S -O Q .fe . 12t2 1 0 r I9 1 1 .4 — 11 .9 — 12*1__ 12.4. 1 1 -7 9 1 1 .1 2 .Q 12.7__ 1 2 . 1 - 1 2 .3 __ IZ*Z-JL2jlZ __ 12*J>__ 13^9_ 15*5__ 15*1__ 16 .4 12.2— L2.4— 12^Ji— 12.7__ 12*4__ 12,3 1-flO____12*jQ__ 12*4__ L2*2___1 2 .9 __ 13*2___1 3 .2 __ 1 3 . Q__ 1 3 .0 2 -A O 17-4 12* « 13*0 7 -7 8 8 -7 » 9 -7 8 2 2 1 .> 1 3 .1 ^ ^ -^ 223.9 R 12.3__ L2*£__ 13.7__ _______ L2^fl__ L i i i __ Li*4__ 1 3 .U I2r.79____ L l* 5 __ 1 1 .9 __ 12*Z__ 12*4__ 12*1___12*£__ 12*3__ 12*2__ 1 2 .2 __ 1 2 .5 2 IB . 3 14tfr_ l& j £ * . 12.0__ 1 2 t 3 -1 2 .f r __ L2*£__ 12*1__ 11*.9_- 11.9 __ 12.2 _13*3L_16«1__ 16*£__ 1 3 t l S ^ _______ „ 1 3 .4 1 4 .5 ¿ 2 6 «2 1 4 .3 ___1 4 .4 1 2 .9 __ 12*4__ 1 1 . 1 _22fl*JL_ 1 3 .0 __ 1 3 .3 1 4 .3 1 5 .3 1 5 .4 ___1 5 .6 1 4 .8 ___L i* J ___1 6 * J_ 13*6 13*5 13 *% 13 * 6 1 3*9 14. H 15*8 13*9 16*2 15*6 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1* . * 1 3 *i» 16*1 17*1 1 V *9 l« # * l\ ^ 35*3 1 -8 0 I N I T I A L MONTH PREPAREO BY FtO ER AL RESERVE 0ANK OF S T . LOUIS MARCH 7 . 19flQ----------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- 4 RATIO PRICES SCALE 1967-100 1972 SEASONALLY 1973 1974 1975 RATIO 1976 1977 SCALE 1967-100 ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 * Ite v i SCO FRON I f f f TO 1 9 7 7 . l i p f l - M FOR A l l URBAN CONSUMERS U £ P I - * POM URBAN V U I EARNERS AN» C LE R IC A L tORK ERS PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR P E R I Otl$ IN © 1C ATEO . LATEST OATA P LO TTE D . FEBRUARY PREPAREO t Y PEOERAL RESERVE SANK OP S T . L O U IS RATIO SCALE PRODUCER PRI CES RATIO SCALE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO O S I MO 1CATEO . LATE ST DATA PLOTTED« FEBRUARY P|EPA R EO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PROOUCER PRICE IN O C X , F IN IS H E O CONSUMER FQOOS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTfcO ____________________CONFOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE___________________ TERNINAL NONTH I N I T I A L NONTH 7 -7 8 8 -7 8 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 8 -7 8 -0 .6 9 -7 8 6 .5 1 0 -78 1 1 .6 1 8 .3 2 2 .6 11 -7 8 9 .5 1 3 .1 1 2 .6 3 .4 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 1967 « 100 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 i-e o 207.*9 1 4 .1 2 1 0 .2 2 1 3 .0 2 1 4 .4 1 2 -78 1 1 .3 1 4 .5 1 4 .6 1 0 .8 1 -7 9 1 2 .6 1 5 .4 1 5 .7 1 3 .5 1 9 .0 1 9 .2 2 -7 9 1 3 .5 1 6 .0 1 6 .4 1 4 .9 1 8 .9 1 9 .0 1 8 .9 1 8 .8 2 1 7 .5 2 2 0 .7 2 2 3 .9 3 -7 9 1 3 .8 1 6 .0 1 6 .3 1 5 .1 1 8 .2 1 8 .0 1 7 .5 1 6 .1 * -7 9 1 1 .6 1 3 .2 1 3 .1 1 1 .5 1 3 .2 1 1 .9 9 .6 5 .2 2 2 6 .7 -4 .7 2 2 5 .8 3 -7 9 9 .0 1 0 .1 9 .6 7 .9 8 .7 6 .7 3 .9 -0 .7 -8 .2 -1 1 .6 2 2 3 .5 6 -7 9 7 .0 7 .8 7 .1 5 .3 5 .6 3 .5 0 .7 -3 .4 - 9 .2 -1 1 .4 -1 1 .2 2 2 1 .3 7 -7 9 7 .1 -1 .2 -5 .1 -5 * 2 -1 .9 8 .4 ___8 -7 9 7 .8 7 .2 5 .7 5 .9 4 .2 1 .9 8 .8 8 .3 7 .0 7 .4 6 .1 4 .3 2 .1 -0 .5 0 .5 4 .9 1 4 .0 1 9 .9 8 .4 7 .3 5 .9 4 .2 2 .3 3 .8 8 .0 1 5 .3 1 8 .8 1 7 .7 7 .5 6 .4 5 .1 3 .5 1 .8 2 .9 6 .1 1 1 .0 1 1 .8 7 .9 -1 .0 ?•<>_ 5 .8 _4*5 5 .9 9 .1 1 3 .7 1 5 .1 1 3 .5 1 1 .5 25*6 9 -7 9 8 .7 9 .5 9 .1 _ 1 0 -7 9 8 .0 8 .7 8 .3 7 .2 ?.•? 9 .4 ••5 1 2 -7 9 8 .6 ’ •2 1 -8 0 7 .6 8 .0 2 -8 0 6 .8 1*2 2 2 9 .3 2 2 9 .IR 2 3 3 .5 8 .4 7 .5 6 .5 5 .4 4 .3 5 .4 8 .1 1 1 .7 1 2 .4 1 0 .6 8 .3 1 3 .2 2 .1 6 .8 7 .0 6 .1 5 .1 4 .0 2 .8 3 .7 5 .8 8 .4 8 .4 6 .3 3 .6 5 .2 -3 .8 -9 .3 6 .1 5 .3 4 .3 3 .1 2 .0 2*7 4 .4 6 .6 6 .3 4 .2 1 .7 2 .4 -4 .4 -7 .5 -5 .5 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 12—78 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 U - 7 9 12—79 1 -8 0 9 - 7 9 10-79 11-79 1 2-79 1 -80 _ 9 -7 8 2 2 6 .2 8 .0 7 .7 7 -7 8 ___ 8 .1 2 2 2 .8 2 3 3 .9 2 3 2 .0 2 3 0 .9 PKUDUCER PRICE INDEX» FIN IS H ED GOODS » EXCLUDING FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OF CHANGE___________________________________ ________________________________COHPQtMQED ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L TERMINAL NONTH 7-7 8 11— 714 a -7h 9-78 10- 7 » 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 *-79 1967 * 1 0 0 MONTH 5-79 6-79 8-79 5.8 190.8 192.0 9-7 H 6 .H 7.8 10- 7 h 6. 0 6. 1 *.5 11 - 7 A 7.1 7.5 7.* 10 . * 12-78 fi. 1 H. 7 9.0 11 . * 192.7 19* . 3 196.2 12. * 198.3 1-79 9.0 9.7 10.2 12.1 13.0 ' 13.6 7« 9.5 1O. 1 10.6 12 . 1 12.7 12.9 12.1 3-79 9.7 10.3 10.7 12.0 12.4 12. * 11.7 11.3 *-79 10.3 10.9 11.3 12.5 12.9 13.1 12.9 13.3 15.2 5- 7 V 10 . 6 1 1.1 11.5 12.6 13.0 13.1 12.9 13.2 14.1 13.0 6-79 10.9 11. * 11.8 12.8 1 3 .1 13.3 1 3 .2 1 3 .* 1 4 .2 13.6 l* .2 ^ v 7- 7 9 11. * 1 1.9 12.* 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.9 1*.2 1*.9 1*.9 15.8 17.3 M—79 11.5 12 . Ù 12. * 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.9 1*.5 1*«3 1*.7 1*.9 9-79 12.1 1 2.6 13.0 13.8 l* .l 1* . 3 1* . * 1*.7 15.3 15.3 15.9 10-79 12 . S 1 4.0 13 . * 1* . 2 1* .6 1* . 8 1*.9 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.5 ? - 7-79 200.2 20 2.0 206.5 \1 6 .4 % 17.1 209*9 . ..¿ 1 1 .6 2 1 3.7 12.6 16.0 19.5 L 7.1 19. * 216.9 19^ \ ¿ 211.1 R 221.7 11-79 12.3 1 2.8 13 . 1 13.8 l* .l 1*.3 1* .3 14.6 15.0 1*.9 15.3 15.5 15.0 15.8 1 *.0 12-79 12.4» 12.9 13.2 13.9 l* .l 1*.3 1* .3 1* . 6 1*.9 1*.9 15.1 15.3 1*.9 15.5 1*.2 11.7 1* . * 1-80 13.5 1* .G 14» . * 15.0 15.* 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.7 17.7 18.8 18.6 18.* 23.* 33.1 7-80 I * .? 1* . 7 15 . 1 15.8 16.2 16 . * 16.6 17.0 17.6 1 7.8 18.3 18.9 19.1 20. 2 20.3 20.6 2* . 7 30.3 7 -7 » 8- 7» 9-78 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 * -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 9. 1 ^ 22* .2 229.6 2 7 .5 ^ 23*.3 1 -8 0 I N I T I A L NONTH R-REVISED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF S T . LOUIS 198 0 __________ _________________________ MARf.N T . 6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1967-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 P E R C E N T A G E S ARE AN N U A L R A T E S OF CH ANGE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST O A TA P L O T T E O t 1967-100 1978 1979 1980 IN O IC A T E O . FE B R U A R Y P R E L IM IN A R Y PR E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS IN D U S TR IA L PRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ to^dUNOTCT««liUAir RATE S Of CHAS££------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TERMINAL------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ INITIAL H0N1H--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOT » 1 0 0 MONTH ____________ 8 - ? ^ * - 7 9 1 6 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1 -8 6 - T - 7 Î T 6 -7 8 *^7fc 1 5 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 1 ^7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 3 - 7 9 “5^79 7 —79 8—78 > .6 9 -7 8 6*3 5 .0 1 0 -78 r .y 7 .1 1 48.0 14 8.6 9 .3 1 4 9.7 1 1 -7 8 7 .3 7 .2 8 .4 7 .5 12- t 8 ? .!' 7 .9 8 .9 8 .7 1 0 .0 1 -7 9 6 .1 5 .8 6 .0 4 .9 3 .6 -2 .3 2 -7 9 5 .8 5 .5 5 .6 4 .7 3 .8 0 .8 \ 4.<> 3 -7 9 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 5 .4 4 .9 3 .2 6 «1 * -7 9 3 .4 2 .9 2 .6 1 .5 0 .3 -2 .0 -1 .8 5 -7 9 *•3 4 .0 3 .9 3 .1 2 .4 1 .0 1 .8 1 .1 -2 .3 1 3 .5 6 -7 9 4 .1 3 .7 3 .6 2 .9 2 .3 1 .1 1 .8 1 .2 -1 .0 7 .4 15 0.6 151.8 15 1.5 15 2.0 8 .2 153.0 - 4 . 6 -1 6 .0 150.8 152.* ^ 0 .7 % 1* 2.6 1 .6 7 -7 9 3 .9 3 .5 3 .4 2 .8 2 .2 1*1 1 .7 1 .3 -0 .4 5 .4 1 .6 8 -7 9 2 .8 2 .4 2 .2 1 .5 0 .9 -0 .2 0 .1 -0 .5 -2 .2 1«6 -2 .1 15 2 .8 1 .6 * -3 .9 151.6 -9 .0 " 9 -7 9 3 .1 2 .7 2 .6 2 .0 1 .4 0 .5 0 .9 0 .5 -0 .8 2 .6 0 .0 -0 .5 -1 .6 6 .5 \ ^ 152.4 1 0 -7 9 2 .8 2 .4 2 .2 1 .7 1 .2 0 .3 0 .6 0 .2 -0 .9 1 .9 -0 .3 -0 .8 -1 .6 2 .4 -1 .6 15 2.2 1 1 -7 9 2 .5 2 .2 2 .0 1 .5 1*0 0 .2 0 .5 0 .1 -0 .9 1 .5 -0 .4 -0 .8 -1 .4 1 .3 -1 .2 152.1 1 2 -7 9 2 .4 2 .1 1 .9 1 .4 1 .0 6 .3 0 .5 0 .2 -0 .* 1 .4 -6 .2 -0 .5 -0 .9 1 .2 -0 .5 0 .0 0 .8 ^ s . 1 -6 0 2 .5 2 .2 2 .1 1 .6 1 .2 0 .5 0 .8 0 .5 -0 .2 1 .7 0 .3 0 .1 -0 .1 1 .6 0 .6 1 .3 2 .4 4 .0 ^ 1 5 2 .7P 2 -6 0 2 .5 2 .2 2 .1 1 .6 1*3 0 .7 0 .9 0 .7 0 .0 1 .8 0 .5 0 .4 0 .2 1 .9 0 .9 1 .6 2 .4 3 .2 153.OP 7 -7 8 8 -7 8 9 -7 6 1 0 -7 6 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 8 -7 9 " 1 5 2 .2 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1 -6 0 I N I T I A L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY ____________________ _________ PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MARCH 14» 1960 7 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE INCOME RATIO SCALE MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2.2 2. I 2.0 1 .9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 I.2 I. I 1.0 0.9 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 0.8 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCONE ___________________________CQHPOUNOEO ANNUAL KATES OF CHANSfc_______________________________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL_______ ___ _ _ ___ ;_____________________________I N I T I A L MONTH__________________ _________________________________________________ POL LARS ANNUAL RATES MONTH 3 -7 9 * -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1 -6 0 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 7 -7 8 8 -7 b 9 -7 8 10—7 d 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 » 1 .7 * 1 .3 1 * J_ 9^78 ..... 1 * 7 5 6 .1 J?S*. J 0 . 7 1 0 -7b 12*3 1**5 I B .* n -? b 1 2 .9 1**5 1 6 .5 12—71* 1 * .0 1 5 .5 1 7 .1 1 6 .5 1 8 .3 1 *b 26.b 1 2 .* 1 3 .3 1 * .0 1 2 .5 11*5 l.b 4 * .J 1 -7 9 1 .7 6 1 .0 1*. 6 1 * 8 0 1 .* 1 3 .5 1 2 .3 1 1 .6 b .* 1 1 .8 1 3 .2 1 3 .6 1 2 .7 1 2 .2 10*3 1 3 .0 1**3 * -7 9 1 1 .8 1 2 .2 1 2 .5 1 1 .5 1 0 .9 9 .1 1 0 .5 9 .9 îz l '* 1 ! 1 3 .0 * I 1 ,8 5 1 .* 12. à 1 2 .6 2 -7 9 ^ v 1 .8 7 2 .1 1 .8 8 0 .7 1 .8 9 1 .6 n * l_ iliJ ? M *® 10? 8 .7 9 .7 9 .0 6 .* _.6“ T* U si li t * » 11*5 10 « 6 1 0 .1 b .b 9 .5 9 .0 7 .2 8 .0 7 -7 9 1 1 .7 1 2 .1 1 2 .2 1 1 .6 1 1 .2 1 0 .2 11*1 1 0 .9 10*1 11*6 13*9 1 9 .2 ^ ^ M r?? 1 1 .5 L 1 .0 11*3 1 0 .9 1 0 .0 1 0 .7 1 0 .5 9 .8 1 0 .9 1 2 .1 1 3 .8 8 9—79 11 .3 1 1 .5 !!• * _ 1 1 .0 1 0 .7 9 .8 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 9 .6 1 0 .* 1 1 .3 1 2 .1 8 .6 8 1 0 -7 9 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 11. b 1 1 .2 1 0 .9 10*2 1 0 .8 1 0 .7 10*2 1 1 .0 1 1 .7 12*5 10*3 1 1 .2 13*f \ 1 .9 8 1 * 2 1 1 -7 9 IL .7 1 2 .0 U*1 11*6 1 1 .3 1 0 .7 11*3 11*2 1 0 .9 1 1 .6 1 2 .* 13*1 1 1 .6 1 2 .7 1**7 15*8 2 .0 0 3 .5 H -7 V IW ? 1 2 .1 11*Z il* 8 11*6 1 1 .0 11*6 11*6 11*3 1 2 .0 1 2 .7 1 3 .* 1 2 .2 1 3 .1 1 * .7 1 5 .1 1 4 .5 1-bO 1 1 .8 1 2 .0 1 2 .1 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 1 1 .0 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .2 1 1 .8 1 2 .* 1 2 .9 1 1 .9 1 2 .6 1 3 .6 1 3 .5 1 2 .* ¿ -Ç 0 H fi 11*6 1 1 .6 11*2 1 1 .0 10*5 10*9 1 0 .8 1 0 .5 11*0 11 .5 1 1 .8 10 *8 11*1 11*6 1 1 .1 9*6 7 - 7b 8 —7 b 9 -7 b 1 0 -7 b l l - 7 b 1 2 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 * -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 6 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 11— 79 1 2 -7 9 \ -1 0 .5 % 8*9 V 1 .9 0 5 .1 1 .9 3 3 .2 1 .9 * 6 .5 j \ 1 .9 6 0 .1 2*028*3 10^3^^ 7 .2 * .l\ 2 .0 * 5 .0 2 *031.9 P 1 -6 0 I N I T I A L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS NARCH IB* I 9 BO 8 RETAIL SALES* RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE BI LLIONS OF DOLLARS 1972 1973 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PlOTTEDt JANUARY, FEBRUARY ADVANCE ESTIMATE * " tVIM # F"°" '* ” ■ PREPARED » r FEOEftAl «UCftVE SANK OF «1. 10«IS R E TA IL SALES« CQHPQUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 7—7 b 8 -7 » 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 » 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 * -7 9 5 -7 9 M ILLIO N S UF OOLLARS 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 « —79 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 11—79 1 2 -7 9 1-BO 67*469 8 -7 8 12 *» 9 -7 8 1 1 .* 1 0 .0 10—78 1 5 .0 1 6 .1 2 2 .5 6 « »0 0 6 6 9 .1 6 * 1 1 -78 1 * .5 1 5 .0 1 7 .6 1 3 .0 12-71» 1 5 .1 1 5 .7 1 7 .7 1 5 .* 1 7 .8 6 9 .8 7 1 1 -7 9 1 3 .9 l* .i 1 5 .2 1 2 .9 1 2 .8 7 0 .8 3 2 8 .1 7 1 .2 9 3 2 -7 9 1 1 .» 1 1 .6 1 1 .9 9 .* 8 .2 3 .7 -0 .5 3 -7 9 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 1 2 .2 1 0 .3 9 .6 7 .0 6 .5 13. 9 7 .2 6 .1 3 .3 1 .8 2 .9 5 .0 * .3 5 .9 * -7 9 9 .7 9 .3 9 .2 5 -7 9 1 0 .0 9 .6 9 .6 7 .9 7 .0 7 1 .2 6 6 \ 7 2 .0 * 5 7 1 .6 0 6 2 .1 72*^92 I 2 . l \ ^ 9 .8 % 6 -7 9 8 .7 8 .3 8 .1 6 .* 5 .5 3 .6 2 .7 3 .5 0 .3 * .2 -3 .3 7 -7 9 6 .0 7 .5 7 .3 5 .7 * .V 3 .1 2 .3 2 .9 0 .3 2 .9 -1 .* 0 .5 8 -7 9 1 1 .1 1 1 .0 1 1 .1 1 0 .0 9*7 8 .7 8 .» 141.* 9 .7 1 * .3 1 5 .1 2 5 .5 5 è .7 \ 7 2 .0 9 3 \ 7 2 .1 2 1 7 4 .8 7 1 9 —79 1 2 .5 1 2 .5 1 2 .7 1 1 .9 1 1 .8 1 1 .1 1 1 .5 1 3 .3 1 3 .2 1 7 .8 1 9 .3 2 7 .9 * * .3 1 U -7 9 1 0 .* 1 0 .2 1 0 .2 9 .3 9 .0 B .l 8 .1 9 .2 8*6 1 1 .* 1 1 .3 1 5 .2 2 0 .6 5 .8 - 1 5 . 7 V 1 1 -7 9 1 0 .6 1 0 .5 1 0 .5 9 .6 9 .* « .6 8 .7 9 .» 9 .2 1 1 .8 1 1 .7 1 5 .0 1 9 .0 8 .5 -1 .9 10*0 9*6 1 1 .8 1 7 .6 9 .* 2 .5 13*1 1 2 .1 3 ^ 7 6 .6 6 6 7 5 .5 8 3 l ^ l V # 6 .421 _ 12—79 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 9 .8 9 .6 8 .9 9 .0 11*8 1**5 l-eo 1 2 .3 1 2 .3 1 2 .* 11. B 1 1 .7 11*3 1 1 .5 1 2 .7 12*6 1 5 .0 1 5 .* 1 8 .3 2 1 .6 1 5 .6 1 1 .6 2 2 .5 2 7 .0 4 3 .» 2—BO 1 1 .2 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 9 .« 9 .9 10*8 1 0 .6 12*5 1 2 .5 14*7 1 6 .9 1 1 .3 7 .* i* .l 14* i 1**2 7 -7 « 8 —7 « 9 -7 8 1 0 -7 « 11 -7 8 1 2 -7 B 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 * -7 9 .5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 B—79 7 7 .1 5 0 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 U — 79 1 2 -7 9 f9 .5 2 3 P -T > | I 7 8 .9 8 9 t 1-B O I N I T I A L MONTH •REVISED FROM 1 9 7 7 . P - PRELIMINARY fc- ESTIM ATED PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST» LOUIS MARCH IB* 1980 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR ______ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________ TERMINAL QUARTER 196T » 100 I N I T I A L QUARTER 1-75 2 t I 5 _ J ?-7? -± rJ > ,7 .2 % 2 =15 8*T _M5 7t2 5*7^ -4 t I5 7*7 7 .2 8*» .Ir ? * 9** 8 .3 9 .6 2 -7 4 8 .5 8 .4 9 .4 3 -7 6 ft? 8 .4 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 1 8 2 .6 1 8 6 .5 1 0 .5 \ 1 9 1 .2 9 .7 8 .9 s 1 V 5 .3 9 .3 8 .7 1 W .3 4 -7 6 8 .5 8 .5 9 .2 8 .7 8 .7 8 .5 8 .5 9fQ 9 .0 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 2 -7 7 9f? 8 .2 8 .6 8 .5 8 .1 7 .9 7 .8 7 .2 6 .1 2 0 3 .6 2 0 7 .7 3 -7 7 8 .3 8 .3 8 .6 8 .6 8 .2 8 .1 8 .0 7 .7 7 .5 V . o ./ Vo e . e V 4 -7 7 8 ti 8 .0 8 .3 8 .2 7*9 7*8 7 .6 7 .3 7 .0 7 .4 1 -7 8 8 .3 8 .3 8 .6 8 .5 8 .3 8 .2 8 .2 8 .0 7 .9 2 1 0 .8 2 1 5 .3 6 .1 8 .4 2 1 8 .5 IO .9 V ¿ 2 4 .2 2 -7 8 8 .3 8 .3 8*5 8 .5 8 .2 8 .2 8 .1 8 .0 7 .9 8 .4 8 .3 ... H 8 .4 8 .3 8.6 8 .5 8 .3 8 .3 8 .3 8*2 8.1 8 .6 8 .5 9 .3 8.6 9 .2 V 4 -7 8 8 .4 8 .3 8 .6 8 .5 8 .4 8 .3 8 .3 8 .2 8 .2 8.5 8 .5 9 .1 8 .5 8 .9 8 .5 lr I2 _ _ 9*5 _ 8*5. _ 8 .7 .8*7 8 .6 8 .6 8 .6 . 8*1.... 8 .6 8 .9 _ 8_,9 9 .5 9 ,2 9 .6 9 ,8 Zrl± 2 2 8 .5 2 3 3 .6 \ 2 3 8 .4 2 4 4 .8 8 « fr ___ ________________8±it____________2*0____2*û____ 2*5____ 2*2____2*5____2*£__ LÛ*2____9 . 3 8*6____i u * ____fLi_Ü____ &*Ji____&*6____&*£____6*6 Jtrl9 1 -7 9 18 0 .1 X -7 7 i 4 -7 8 8*S____ ft*5_ 1-7 5 2 -7 5 8 .6 -J U 2 ____2*Q____ 2*4____2*1____ 2*4____2*4____2*1____2*5____ft* I_ 8*1____Z*1____0*4____8*5____8*5____ 8*5____8*5____ 8*8____8 .8 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 9 .1 ____ 8 .9 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 9 .0 9 .0 9 .1 8 .4 8 ,0 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 -2 5 5 »A l_. 7 .2 ) 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, PR IVATE BUSINESS SECTOR ______________ CPHPQUNPEP ANNUAL HATE* QF XHA_NSE_________________ INITIAL QUARTER 1967 « 100 QUARTER 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 1 1 2 .4 1 1 4 .4 3 -7 5 9 .5 7 .3 X 4 -7 5 5 .4 2 .3 1 -7 6 5 .9 1 2 .5 7*6V 4 .4 1 .4 s 1 .6 1 1 3 .7 11 5 .8 1 1 6 .2 2 -7 6 5 .0 3.4 _ 2 .1 3 -7 6 4 .5 3 .0 2 .0 3 .5 4 -7 6 ___ 4 .1 2 .8 2 .0 3 .1 1 .6 1.7 rT V . 4 .1 3 .1 2 .4 3 .4 2 .3 2 .6 3 .1 4. V s * .7 2 .4 It*. 1 .5 1 .4 1 .2 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 1 -7 7 1 1 .8 s^ 9 . 5 % 2 .4 _2.-2T 1 *4 1 -7 5 _ l* û 2 -7 5 w 11 6 .7 V 1 1 7 .2 1 A 07 ........... - 2 . 0V 1 1 8 .5 1 1 7 .9 J 3 *l 3—75 4 —7 5 7^76 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS FEBRUARY 2 7 « 1980 10 PRODUCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATI ON, AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE 1967-100 SEASONALLY SCALE 1967-100 240 ADJUSTED 220 200 180 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 SOURCE: PER CENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL RA TES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO O S LA T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : U .S . 1979 1980 DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR IN D IC A T E D . 4TH OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 10 .5 6 .2 7 .0 6 .5 7 .0 6 .9 7 .0 6 .9 7 .6 7 .* 8 .9 9 .2 5 .8 3 -7 8 5 .6 6 .3 6 .9 6 .5 6 .9 6 .9 6 .9 6 .9 7 .5 7 .3 8 .3 8#4 6 .2 6 .6 * -7 8 5 .8 6 .* 1 7 .0 6 .7 7 .0 7 .0 7 .1 7 .0 7 .6 7 .* 8 .3 8 .3 6 .8 7 .3 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 5 .5 - --- - • -0 CD • o U N IT LABUR CU STSt PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 7 .1 6 .6 7 .1 7 .1 7 .2 7 .1 8 .1 1 2 .8 " 1 8 9 .* 1 9 2 .1 1 9 5 .2 1 9 9 .0 #- ° w 1 -7 9 6 .3 ~ 6 .9 7 .5 7 .3 7 .6 7 .7 7 .8 7 .8 8 .* 8 .* 9 .3 9 .5 8 .7 9 .7 1 1 .3 1 * .6 2 -7 9 Ó. 6 7 .2 7 .8 7# b 8 .0 8*0 8*1 6*2 8 .8 8*8 9 .6 9 .9 9 .3 1 0 .2 1 1 .* 1 3 .2 1 1 .8 ^ 3 -7 9 6*8 7 .* 8 .0 7 .8 8 .1 8 .2 8 .3 8 .* 8 .9 9 .0 9 .7 1 0 .0 9 .5 1 0 .2 1 1 .2 1 2 .2 1 1 .1 * -7 9 6 .9 7. * 8 .0 7 .8 8 .1 8 .1 8 .3 8*4 8 .8 8 .9 9 .5 9 .7 9 .2 9 .8 1 0 .5 1 1 .1 1 0 .0 1 ^ 7 i_ .2 -7 5 3 -7 5 W 5 i -7 2 -Jk-77 . i - z a _ 2-78 JLrZfi 1 -1 6 - Z -l b ... 3 -7 6 .JLr7I . 2-77 2 0 5 .9 2 1 1 .7 lo .^ X 9 .1 4 t 7£ . 1 - 7 2 - 2 -1 3 2 1 7 .0 7 .8 \ 2 2 1 .1 a -7 » I N I T I A L QUARTER 11 PBPPAttfrn ftv EPnPttAI FEBRUARY 2 7 , 1980 BPSfttWE RAM* n t S I - IfM llS GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS CPMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGfe TERMINAL QUARTER _________________I N I T I A L QUARTER___________________ 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 5 .6 1 6 .6 1 3 .3 1 3 .7 9 .0 1 4 .0 1 1 .8 1 4 .7 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 * -7 8 1 -7 » ¿ -7 V 3 -7 V 0I I I i o n s u f POLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2.-7* i £*98.« 6 4 -7 5 1 -7 5 1 *56* »U A *5Vtt.U 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 IN I T I A L QUARTER GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS CONFOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER l -7 5 _ 2 -7 5 3k75 4 -7 5 6 .4 3 -7 5 8 .4 1 0 .5 4 -7 5 6 .5 6 .5 2 .6 1 -7 6 7 .5 7 .9 6 .6 1 0 .7 2 -7 6 6 .5 6 .5 5 .2 6 .5 5 .9 3 -7 6 6 .0 2 -7 7 5 .8 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 1 -7 7 4 -7 6 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 * -7 8 1 -7 9 3 -7 9 2 -7 9 5 .8 1 * 2 2 0 .0 4 .7 1 * 2 2 7 .9 5 .* 5 .4 1 -7 7 1 -7 6 1 t lt t v .y 2 -7 5 5 .9 5 .8 5 .2 5 .7 5 .1 5 .5 1 * 2 5 9 .5 I 2 .5 1* 2 6 7 .4 2 .8 1 * 2 7 7 .1 . V 3*<> ___3 .3 3 .5 4 .5 6 .1 4 .5 5 .1 5 .0 5 .7 1 * 288.1 1* 3 1 5 .7 8 . 8 s" \ ^ 4 .6 % 6 .8 1 * 331 .2 3 -7 7 6 .0 5 .9 5 .3 5 .7 4 .9 5 .4 6 .0 6 .9 5 .9 7 .0 ^ I *353.9 4 -7 7 5 .6 5 .5 5 .0 5 .3 4 .5 4 .9 5 .2 5 .7 4 .6 4 .6 1 * 3 6 1 .3 1 -7 8 5 .3 5 .2 4 .7 4 .9 4 .2 4 .5 4 .7 4 .9 4 .0 3 .7 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 5 .2 4* T 4 .9 3 -7 8 5 .4 5 .3 4 .9 5 .1 4 .5 4 .8 * -7 8 5 .4 4ft9„ 5 .1 4 f6 lr l± 2 -7 9 .Ir r » 4 -7 9 _ *♦* _ S .9 _ 4*J 4 .6 4 .2 4 .3 4» 6 . 4 , 1 . 4 .1 .. 4* g 4 .7 3 .8 5 .5 4 .8 * .8 4 .1 5 .0 8 .3 ^ 5 .2 4 .6 4 .5 3 .9 4 .5 5 .9 3*5^ „5.2^ _ 4 . 7 4 .7 4 .3 4 .8 5 .8 4 .6 5 .6 4 .1 4 .6 3 .4 3 .3 1 .9 1 .4 4*6 _ 4 JLe. 4 .3 4 .2 3 .4 2 .9 3 .0 3 .2 3* 13*3 2. 9 3. 0 3 * 2 . . ?*2 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 _ 3 . 5 1** 3*? 4*0^ 4*4 4*2 4*^ 4 ,1 3*6 3*7 1*$ 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 I *367.0 1 .3 9 5 .2 5 .0 5*0 . 4 * A _ _ 4*3. „ 4 , 5 1 .9 \ fM * US 2 -7 8 2 .1 3*6_ 3 .7 2** 1 -7 7 4 -7 6 ~ 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 * * 0 7 .4 1 .8 _ 1 .* 2 6 .6 1 * * 3 0 .6 1 . X -9 * * -2 t ? . 0 ,6 0 .4 3 .1 s 1*5 2*1 .1 * 2 [ U ± \ -0 * 3 - 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2*> 2 -7 9 I .* 2 2 .3 _____ 1*Q\ l i * 4 0 fA 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER- ~ PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS MARCH 19« 1980 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L R A T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF 2 2 PRODUCT RATI O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S Q UAR T E R L Y TOT AL S AT ANNUAL R A T E S DOLLARS S E AS O NA L L Y AD J US T E D 6 2.5 A 2 2 2 2 2 2.3 0 . 9 .8 7 6 .5 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 1.3 2 1. 1 0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOP. PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1978 U .S . 1979 1980 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 13 LOUIS GENERAL PRICE INDEX* RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1972-100 1972-100 1972 ■AS USED 1973 IN N A T IO N A L 1974 1975 1976 IN C O N E AC CO UN TS SOURCE: P E R C E N T A G E S ARE AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FO R P E R IO D S LATEST D A TA P L O T T E D * 1977 1978 U .S . 1979 1980 D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE I N D IC A T E D . 4 T H QU ARTER PR E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS IM P L IC IT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________ TERMINAI I N I T I A L QUARTER 1972 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS MARCH 19• 1980 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL___________________________ ______________________________________ IN I T I A L QUARTER 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 2 -7 6 3—76 4—76 3 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 7 4 -7 5 1-77 2 -7 5 3r77 4-77 1 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 ANNUAL RATES _____________ 9 6 * .9 Urß 12. 6 4 -7 5 12, * 12,1 11*4 1 2 .5 12.* v v * .o 1 -7 6 12.6 2 -7 6 lift 3 -7 6 11.* 11.1 11*5 11.2 11.0 1 -7 7 11.8 11.6 2 -7 7 1 1 .3 3 -7 7 * -7 7 1 , 021.6 1 3 .2 1• 0 5 3 .6 10,8 1 0 .5 7 .8 1 .0 7 3 .7 1 0 .7 10.* 9 .1 1 0 .4 10.8 10.0 11.2 12.0 11.* 11. * 1 0 .9 12.0 1 2 .9 11.1 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 10.2 1 0 .9 11.1 10.6 7 .5 11.2 11.0 10.8 1 0 .7 10*3 10.8 1 0 .9 10.6 9 .0 10*5 11.* 11*3 11*1 11.0 1 0 .7 11*2 11.* 1 1 .3 1 0 .5 12.0 1 3 .* 1 0 .5 10*9 11.0 JU 3 1 ,1 0 0 .5 1 ,1 3 2 .0 1 ,1 6 9 .1 1 3 .8 1 ,1 9 0 .5 1, ¿ 20.6 1 # 2 5 9 .7 !_-78 _ 11.2 11.0 1 0 .9 10.8 10.8 10.1 11.0 11.2 9 .0 1 -7 6 11*3 H*3 11*2 l i t 2_ 1 0 .9 11*3 U ._5 11. * 1 0 .9 11.8 1 2 .3 1 1 .7 I* .4 3 -7 8 1 1 .3 1 1 .* 1 1 ,3 1 1 ,2 11*0 1 1 .4 11*5 11 *5 11*1 11*8 1 2 .2 1U 8 13*2 -13 1-7? H*L _I1** a *7 11*6 1 1 .5 1 1 .3 11.8 1 1 .5 12*2 12.6 1 2 .4 1 1 .3 11*7 U*T 11. B 1 1 .5 11.8 11.8 1 1 .3 12*1 12. * 12. ? 2 -7 9 1 1 .3 11.1 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.2 10.9 11*3 11,3 11.1 *2 1 1 .5 11,6 1 1 .5 1 1 .3 11*8 11*9 11.2 1 1 .5 11*1 3-7? 11*5. li*4 11*4 11*3 M 4 -7 * 3 -7 8 13*1 ,3 r ll 4 2 -7 8 B IL L IO N S OF 1 ,2 8 / .* 1 * 3 3 1 .2 • 11*9 1 3 6 V ,3 1 3 .5 13*1 I ,* 1 5 .* 13.0 12*3 12.8 11. * 11*6 10*9 10*3 8 .7 6 .1 1 1 .7 12.1 11*7 11.6 10.8 1 0 .5 1 3 ,1 ___ 1**2 1 ** 5*,2 1 .4 7 5 . 9 lit? 11*6 1 1 ,5 11*5 11.4 11*7 11*8 1 1 ,8 11*6 1 2 ,0 1 2 ,2 1 2 .0 12*4 12*1 1 2 .2 1 1 .7 11 *7 14*7 14*3 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 W 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 W 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 I t 5 « Q .4 I N I T I A L QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANSE________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL ________________________________________________________________ f -f * T | Al QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ B P ll* * ? _____ QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 * -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 * -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 * -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 * -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 _________________ 2 -7 5 7 .0 3 -7 5 6 .0 5*0 * -7 5 6 .0 5 .5 6 .0 1 -7 6 6 .6 6 .5 7 .2 8 .* 2 -7 6 6 .0 5 .8 6 .0 6 .0 3 .6 3 -7 6 5 .8 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 * .2 * .7 * -7 6 5 .8 5 .7 5 .7 * .8 5 .* 1 -7 7 5 .9 5 .7 5 .9 5 .8 5 .2 5 .7 2 -7 7 5 .* 5 .2 5 .3 5 .2 * .5 * .7 3 -7 7 5 .4 5 .8 ____________________________________________________________7 9 1 .1 _______________________________________________________________ ;_________ ___________ « 0 7 .3 6 .2 6 .2 * .7 6 .3 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 * 9 .2 * .0 1 .8 ________________________________________________________________________________________ « 5 3 .1 5 .2 5 .2 5 .1 * . 6 ___* .8 4 .8 * .* 3 .* 5 .1 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .1 5 .* 5 .5 5 .3 5 .0 6.6 8 .2 ______________________________________ ' 3 .2 ____5 .1 5 .1 5 .0 * .6 * .7 4 .7 4 .* 3*9 4 .7 4 .4 0 .8 _________________________________________________________________ 8 8 2 .7 2 -T Ö 3 .3 3 .1 3 ,1 3 ,1 **7 4 .8 4 .8 * .6 4 .3 4 .9 4 .8 3 .2 3 -7 8 3 .2 3 .1 5 .1 3,Q ____ **7 * .8 *«8 M 4 -7 « 5 ,3 5 .2 5 ,2 5 .2 * ,9 5 ,0 5*0 4 .9 * -7 7 1 -Ii 5 .7 _________________________ _____________ ____________________________________ 8 6 3 .7 *«8 ____ 4*4____4 .9 4 .7 5 .2 3 .2 _____________________________ « « 0 . 9 3 . 6_________________________________________________________ « 9 * . « 3 .7 ____5*2____*¿8________________________________________________ 9 0 5 .3 * .5 5 .7 5 .8 6 . 8 ___________ _____________________________ 9 2 0 .3 1 -7 9 5 ,0 4*9 4 ,9 4*9. + .3 4*£ 4*4 *,,4____ * » 2 2 -7 9 4 .6 4 .4 4 .4 ____ 4 .2 3 .9 * .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 , 4 _____3*6 -j tl - j t ?________________________ 9 1 3 .0 3 -7 9 * .6 * s4 4 ,* * ,3 4±0 4 .0 4 .0 3*8 3 .3 3 .7 3 .3 2 .9 3*2 2 .8 2 .3 0 .8 0*9 4 .9 _________________ 9 2 3 .9 4 -7 9 4 ,5 *¿ 4 * A* * ,3 4 ,0 4*0 4±0 3 .8 3 .6 3 .8 3 .6 3 .0 3 .4 3 .0 2 .7 1 .6 2 .0 * .3 4 .2 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 * -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 * -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 _ 4 * 5 ___ 4*4____h>2____4 , 4 4 ,0 3*7____________ ___________________________ 3*1*9 . 3*4____ _______ Z s l ____Z±1____1*4 9 3 5 .* IN I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS MARCH 19* 19B0 15 • GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE U R H I N A L _____________________ ______ QUARTER 4 -7 5 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 Ö ILL1Ü NS Of_____________________ ____________ I N IT IA L QUARTER________________________________________________________________ OQLLAKS ANNUAL RATES 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 1-77 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4-77 3-78 4 —7 « 1 -7 9 2 -7 v 1-7 8 3 -7 V 2 -7 8 2 -7 5 -S .5 3 -7 5 3 5 .4 9 4 .1 4 -7 5 2 0 .1 3 5 .4 -5 .5 L-7_6 31*4 4 6 .7 2 ? .5 2 -7 6 2 8 .0 38. 1 2 3 , 2_ 4 0 .7 .**•2 3 -7 ö _24.2_ 31. 1_?.0 2 8 .4 11.0 7*0 *_-76 2 1 .7 2 7 .0 16*6 2 3 .0 9 .9 7 .4 7*? 1 -7 7 2 5 .6 3 0 .8 2 2 .5 2 9 .0 2 0 .1 2 1 .8 2 9 .9 5 6 .5 .2 -7 7 2 6 .2 3 0 .9 2 3 .7 2 9 .4 2 2 .2 2 4 .0 3 0 .3 4 3 .2 3 1 .0 3 -7 7 2 5 .8 2 9 .9 2 3 .6 2®? 4 2 2 .3 2 3 .7 2 * .3 3 6 .0 2 6 .8 2?. 6 4 -7 7 2 3 ,4 2 6 .8 2 0 .9 2 4 .7 1 9 .1 1 9 .7 22. 5 2 6 .4 1 7 .7 1 1 .6 I7!>.< ¿06 .0 2 0 j •v 7 2 .0 ...2.33 .!> ¿ 4 1 .9 . _ ¿«*0.0 *!>0.7 2 0 0 .4 _300 . 0_ 31j>.'/ 1 .5 316 .V 1 -7 8 22*5 2 5 .5 2 0 .1 2 3 .4 1 8 .3 1 8 .8 2 0 .9 2 3 .7 1 6 .6 1 2 .2 7 .3 1 3 .4 2 -7 8 2 3 .4 2 6 .2 2 1 .4 2 4 .5 2 0 .1 2 0 .7 2 2 .8 2 5 .5 2 0 .0 1 7 .4 1 5 .7 2 3 .6 3 4 .7 3 -7 8 2 2 .0 2 4 .4 1 9 .9 2 2 .5 1 8 ,4 1 8 .8 2 0 .3 2 2 .2 1 7 .3 1 4 .7 1 2 .8 1 6 .9 1 8 .7 4 .5 4 —7.8 2 1 .6 2 3 .9 1 9 .7 22*0 1 8 .3 1 8 .6 2 0 .0 2 1 .6 17*3. 15.1 1 3 .7 1 6 .9 18_.l_ 1 0 .6 1 -7 ? 2 0 .4 2 2 .4 . 1®*4 2 0 .5 17 .Q 1 7 .1 .1 8 .2 1 9 .4 15*_5 1 3 . 4 . J _ 1 .9 _.L4_._l . 1 4 .3 ._ _®_. 2 10*1. 2 -7 V 2 0 .7 2 2*6 18*9 2 0 ,8 1 7 .6 1 7 ,8 1 8 ,8 2 0 ,0 1 6 .5 1 4 .8 1 3 .7 1 5 .9 1 6 .4 1 2 .2 1 4 .9 3 -2 ? l? f 2 . 2 0 .9 17*4 1?*! 1 6 ,0 1 6 .0 1 6 .8 I?.? 14*4 _ -12 *7 M'2. 1 3 .0 .1 2 .? 9 .0 10. L 4 - ? ? .. 1 7 ,8 1?* 3 1 5 «? 1 7 .4 1 4 .4 1 4 .4 15_.fi 11*6 1 2 .5 . 1.0*7 . 9 .? 1 0 ,5 liUl _**! 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-7 8 2 -7 7 3<i/.0 3 b 2 .3 _ 2 -7 8 3 5 6.2 ...370*5_ 17*1 _ 4 .? 3 -7 8 .3 .6 __ . .3 73^8. . 1 3 .9 2 5 .2 7 .9 1 0 .1 .4*5 . 4 -7 8 395.«» .“^3*1__ _ - -5 .1 4 ^ -T 4 ,1 1 -7 9 2—79 3 * 2 .3 3d/.<: 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER GROSS PRIVATE 00MEST1C INVESTMENT IN 1972 DOLLARS COHPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1 -7 5 1 -7 5 Iris -3 .8 3 -7 5 3 0 .4 4 -7 5 1 4 .4 _ 2 4 # 8 1 -7 6 ? * t2 3 -7 5 ♦ -7 5 1—76 2^76 3^76 4 -7 6 -.1 .-7 7 2 -7 7 3^77 __4_-77.. 13 3 .3 1 5 3 .7 ■=11»» 38*2 2 1 .2 1 * 8 .9 1 6 9 .9 6 9 .5 1 7 3 .0 2 -7 6 2 2 .7 3 0 .4 1 7 .8 3 6 ,2 9 ,5 1 8 .8 2 3 .9 1 3 .3 2 3 .3 5 .1 0 .9 4 -7 6 1 6 .4 2 0 .2 1 1 .3 1 8 .0 4 .6 2 .2 3 .5 1 7 4.2 1 7 5.7 191 .0 1 -7 7 1 9 .1 22. 8 1 5 .6 2 2 .0 1 2 ,4 1 3 ,4 2 0 .2 3 9 .7 2 -7 7 1 9 .1 2 2 .4 1 6 .1 2 1 .6 1 3 .8 1 4 .8 1 9 .9 2 9 .1 1 9 .3 3 -7 7 1 8 .7 2 1 .5 1 6 .0 2 0 .6 1 4 .0 1 4 .9 1 8 .7 2 4 .2 17 .1 1 9 9.6 2 0 6 .7 1 5 .0 4 -7 7 16*1 1 8 .3 1 3 .2 1 6 ,8 1 0 ,7 1 0 ,9 1 3 ,0 1 5 ,5 8 ,5 3 ,4 -7 ,0 L -7 8 IV*«- 17*8 1 3 .1 1 6 .3 .IP,?. 11*1 1 2 .9 1 4 .9 9 .4 6 .3 2 .2 1**« 1 7 .6 Ik? 1 6 ,2 1 1 .4 11s 7 1 3 ,3 _ L 5 ,e 9 .7 1 0 .8 1 1 .9 3 -7 8 14*2 1 -7 8 7 6 .8 3 -7 6 2 -7 9 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER TERN M A L QUARTER 1 5 .7 1 1 .7 1 4 .1 9 .7 . _®*4 10_*7_ 7 .9 2 0 3 .0 6 .6 _ 1 4 .1 5 .7 3 .5 4 .1 209 .U 1 2 .4 7 .3 _ 1? *5_. 4 .8 2 1 6 .6 £ 14 .0 -5 .1 7 .1 5 .4 0 .6 6 ,5 5 .4 .3 .? . 0*2 .1*5 6 .1 4 .8 2 .3 4 .8 4 -7 8 1 3 .6 4 5 .0 11 «3 1 3 .4 ? .4 ? ,4 1Q.3 1.1.2 7 ,7 5 .9 1 -7 9 1 2 .7 1 3 ,9 1 0 ,4 1 2 ,3 8 ,5 8 ,4 9 ,2 ?*? 4 ,6 *.? 2 -7 9 1 2 .5 1 3 .6 1 0 .3 1 2 .0 8 .5 8 .5 9 .2 9 .7 6 .8 5 .4 4 .1 .3 -7 ? 1 0 .9 lit* • •7 .10*2 6 .8 6 .6 7 -1 7 .? 4 ,7 Jbti 1*® 3t.l ..1*7. 4 -7 9 9 ,6 1 0 ,4 7*3 9* 7 5*5 5 ,2 5*6 5 ,7 3 t l. fi,2 .1*2 .=0*4 -2 * ft =2*4 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 2 -7 7 2 1 / .* -0 .4 . 4 .0 - 1 *0.. . . . 0 *1 .. _-2*fi 4 -7 8 ¿17*2 2 2 1 .7 8 .5 -2 * JL _-1 2 * ? ¿ 1 4 .2 _ ri*4 ¿Mal. 1 -7 9 - 1 2 . 2 -1 1 ,< L ._ 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MARCH 19* 1980 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ____________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL_______________________________________________________ _________ IN IT IA L Q U A R T E R ________ ____________________________________________________OOLLAKS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 1 -7 9 3 -7 9 1 -7 5 2 -7 9 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 2 -7 5 2 -7 6 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 33 h .2 2 -7 5 10*7 3 -7 5 10*3 9 .9 .W 5 . 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 1 .3 1 -7 6 9 .0 8 .4 7 .7 4 .2 2 -7 6 7 .7 7 .0 6 .0 3 .4 3 4 2 .2 3 5 1 .5 3 5 5 .1 2 .7 3t>7.5 3 6 2 .4 3 -7 6 7 .4 6 .7 5 .9 4 .2 4 .2 5 .6 4—76 7 .6 7 .1 6 .5 5 .3 5 .7 7 .3 9 .0 1 -7 7 8 .0 7 .6 7 .2 6 .4 7 .0 0 .5 9 .9 1 0 .9 2 -7 7 8 .5 8 .2 8 .0 7 .5 0 .1 9 .5 1 0 .9 1 1 .0 1 2 .0 3 7 0 .3 3 8 0 .0 3 -7 7 8 .6 8 .4 8 .2 7 .7 8 .4 9 .5 1 0 .5 1 1 .0 1 1 .1 * -7 7 9 .0 8 .8 8 .7 8 .4 9 .0 1 0 .1 1 1 .0 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 -7 8 8 .8 8 .6 8 .5 8 .2 8 .7 9 .6 1 0 .2 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 3 9 1 .6 * 0 0 .5 9 .4 4 1 2 .0 1 2 .9 H A 9 .7 9 .6 * 1 9 .* 6 .6 * ¿ » .3 2 -7 8 8 .8 8 .6 8 .5 8 .2 8 .7 9 .5 1 0 .0 1 0 .2 1 0 .0 9 .4 9 .4 7 .7 0 .0 3 -7 8 9 .0 8 .9 8 .8 8 .6 9 .0 9 .0 1 0 .3 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .0 10 .1 9 .2 10 .5 1 2 .3 * -7 8 9 .2 9 .1 9 .1 8 .9 9 .3 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .7 1 0 .7 1 0 .3 1 0 .5 9 .9 11 .1 1 2 .3 8 .8 1 -7 9 9 .0 8 .9 2 -7 9 8 .8 8 .7 3 -7 9 8 .9 8 .8 4 -7 9 9 .5 1 -7 5 «»* 0 .9 1 2 .2 _____* 6 0 .1 8 .6 9 .0 9 .6 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 1 0 .0 9 .6 9 .7 9 .1 9 .7 1 0 .0 0 .9 5 .7 8 .4 8 .8 9 .3 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .1 0 .5 0 .9 0 .9 7 .0 5 .7 5*8 8 .7 8 .5 8 .8 9 .3 9 .7 9 .7 9 .6 9*2 9 .2 0 .7 9 .1 9 .1 0 .4 7 .1 7 .0 .1.0*0 9 .4 9 .4 9 .3 9*6 1 0 .1 1 0 .0 1 0 .4 12*1 1 3 .4 2 1 .1 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 3 -7 7 2 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 * 0 9 .6 4 7 7 .« > 0 1 .2 IN I T I A L QUARTER GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOOOS ANO SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 2 -7 0 1 -7 8 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 2 6 1 .6 2 -7 5 3 .6 3 -7 5 3 .5 3 .4 * -7 5 3 .3 3 .2 2 6 3 .8 2 6 5 .7 2 .9 1 -7 6 2 .1 1 .6 0 .7 -1 .5 2 -7 6 1 .1 0 .5 -0 .5 -2 .1 3 -7 6 0 .9 0 .3 -0 .4 -1 .5 -1 .5 -0 .3 _ 0*7. 0 .3 -0 .4 — 1 .2 -l.l -0 .2 4—76 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 2 6 4 .7 -2 ,7 2 6 2 .9 2 6 2 .7 -0 .2 262 . 6 1 -7 7 1 .0 0 .6 0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .1 0 .0 1*4 2 .9 2 -7 7 1 .4 1 .1 0 .8 0 .5 0 .9 1 .0 2 .5 3 .0 4 .0 3 -7 7 1 .7 1 .5 1 .2 1 .0 1 .4 2 .2 2 .9 3 .9 4 .4 4 .1 ¿ 6 4 .5 2 6 7 .6 2 7 0 .3 4 -7 7 1 .7 1 .5 1 .3 1 .1 1 .5 2 .2 2 .7 3 .4 3 .5 ? t* 1 .0 1 -7 8 1 .4 1 .3 1 .0 0 .8 1 .1 1 .7 2 .0 2*5 2 .3 1?5 0 .3 -1 .2 2 -7 8 1 .4 1 .2 1 .0 __ 0 .8 1 .6 1 .9 2 .2 2 .1 1*4 0 .5 -0 .1 2 7 1 .5 2 7 0 .7 0 .9 2 7 1 .3 3 -7 0 1 .7 1 .5 1 .4 1 .2 1 .5 2 .0 2 .3 2 .6 2 .6 ? tl 1 .6 1 .6 3 .0 5 .1 4 -7 8 1*7 1 .3 1 .4 1 .3 1 «3 . 2 .0 _ 2 .2 _ 2 .5 2 .5 2 .1 1 .7 1 .7 2 .6 3 .5 1 .9 1 -7 9 1*5 1*3 1 .2 1 .0 A il . _ 1a6 1 .8 l± o 1*? 1*5 1 .1 0 .9 1 .5 1 .7 0 .0 1 .3 1 .5 1 .3 0*9 0 .4 0 .2 0 .5 0 .4 -1 .1 -2 .6 -3 .3 1*3 1* 4„.. 1 .3 0*9 . 0 .5 0*3 0#6 0*5 -0 .6 -1 * 4 -1 .2 1 .0 1*0 _1*3. 0 * 4 _ 1*2 _Ä *i 2 -7 9 1 .2 1 .0 0 .9 0 .7 0 .9 1 .2 3 -7 9 1 .2 1 .0 £*9 0*7 0 ,9 U l 4 -7 9 1*4 1*3 1*2 1*1 i* £ 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 1*7 _ l* J t 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 L*7_ 1 -7 7 1*4 _ .._ U 1 ._ 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 0 _ l*4t 2 -7 0 2 7 4 .7 i> * i 3 -7 0 2 7 6 .0 -1 .9 4 -7 0 2 7 4 .7 1 -7 9 2 7 2 .4 2 -7 9 2 7 3 .1 ____ -¿77*1_ 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS MARCH 19, 1900 17 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS __________ COMPOUNDED *NNIIA 1 RATES n c ______________ B IL L IO N S OF TERN I N A L ____________________________________________________________ f M l T I H QUARTER__________________________________________ _____________________ OULLARS QUARTER ANNUAL KATES 1 ^7 5 2 -7 * 3 -T 5 4 -7 5 1—76 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 » -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -T 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 -2=75— _3 0 , 1 __________ -1=1* -------15.1 _ ____________ ___________ ______________________ 4 —75 13*3 5*7 9*6 1—76 12*4 7*0 9 .7 9 .7 2 -7 6 11*1 6*9 8*6 8*0 6*4 3 -7 6 10*6 7*1 8*4 8*0 7 .2 8 .1 4 -7 6 10*6 7*6 8*8 B .6 8 .2 9*2 10*3 1 -7 7 .-1Q*4 7*9 8 .9 8 .7 8 .5 9 .2 9*8 9 .3 2 -7 7 10*6 8*4 9 .3 9 .3 9 .2 9 .9 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 3 -7 7 1 0 .7 8*8 9 .7 _ -2* 7^ 1 0 .3 1 0 .9 kk±l _ 1 2 . o . 1 2 .1 4 -7 7 -JLQ±* 9 .1 9 .9 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .6 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 l-7 § JkQa*_ **2 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 10*0 1 0 .6 1 1 .0 ll.l 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .1 1 0 .3 1 0 * 3 _ 1 0 .8 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 11*7 1 1 .5 _1Q*9 _ 1,0 95* 1 _ U .l 9*9 1 ,15 2*2 1Q.*J If tt * 1 0 .6 15*6 1 0 .7 1*170*2 1 ,1 93* 1 1 ,2 2 2 * 6 1 ,2 5 0 * 1 1 2 .0 1 ,2 8 6 .0 1*323*2 1*361*2 1 .3 9 5 .0 1 2 .7 1 ,4 3 7 * 3 1 0 .9 11*2 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 1 1 .7 11*6 11*5 1 2 .0 1 1 .4 1 1 .2 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 12*0 1 2 .6 12*5 1 ,4 7 6 * 5 1 3 .7 1 .5 2 4 * 8 lrJS . 1 1 .3 1 0 .1 1 0 .7 10*8 1 0 .9 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 1 2 .1 1 2 .2 1 2 .2 1 2 .2 1 2 .7 1 2 .7 1 3 .4 13*0 .*-?* 11*1 1 0 .0 10*5 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 11*0 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 1 1 .5 10*3 7 .7 3 -7 9 11 *0 10*0 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .3 1 1 .5 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 11*4 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 1 0 .2 8*8 4 -7 9 _u* o 1<M> 10*6 1 0 .6 11*2 JL U * _ l i t * .11*3 11*2 1 1 .? 1 1 .1 11*9 1 0 .4 M lf i.4 IQ t ? 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 3 -7 5 1 ,1 0 0 ,3 1 ,1 25* * 19*2 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 _ 1 . » ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________ _____________ _10*9_ 11*2 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2—77 1 .5 7 2 * 2 1*601*7 9*9 1 .6 4 0 .0 I N I T I A L QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 8 .2 6 .8 -0 .5 4*0 1 -7 6 6 .4 1 .4 4 .7 5 .3 2 -7 6 5 .5 1 .6 3 .8 3 .7 2 .1 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 8 6 3 .1 8 7 1 .7 8 8 3 .1 8 8 7 .7 8 9 3 .4 3 -7 6 5 .0 1 .8 3 .5 3 .3 2 .3 2 .6 4 -7 6 5 .0 2 .2 3 .7 3 .6 3 .1 3 .5 4 .5 1 -7 7 4 .6 2 .2 3 .4 3 .3 2 .8 3 .1 3 .3 903*3 2 .1 908*0 921*5 2 -7 7 4 .8 2*7 3*8 3 .8 3 .5 3 .8 4 .2 4 .1 3 -7 7 4 .9 3*1 4*2 4 .2 4 .0 4 .4 4 .8 4 .9 6 .3 6 .6 4 -7 7 5*1 3 .5 4* 4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .8 5 .2 5 .4 6 .5 6 .7 6 .8 4 .2 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 5 .4 5 .1 4 .4 2 .0 4 .9 6 .1 936*3 9 5 1 .8 9 5 6 .6 9 6 6 .1 2 -7 8 4*8 3 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4*3 4*6 4 .6 5 .1 4 .8 4*3 3 .0 4 .0 3 -7 8 4 .8 3 .5 4 .2 4*2 4 .1 4*3 4 .5 4 .5 4 .9 4 .7 4 .3 3*4 4 .1 4 .2 4 -7 8 4 .9 3 .7 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 4 .7 4 .8 5 .2 5 .0 4 .7 4 .2 4 .9 5 .3 9 7 6 .¿ 9 9 1 .5 1 -7 9 4 .7 3 .6 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .5 4*8 4*6 4 .2 3 .7 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 2 -7 9 4 .3 3 .2 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 3 .9 3*9 4 .1 3 .8 3 .4 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .3 0 .3 2 .1 m »6 993*4 3*1 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .6 3 .5 3*7 3 .4 3 .0 2 .5 2 .5 2 .3 1 .8 0 .3 —0 * 4 0 .2 3 .9 2 .9 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 3 .4 3 .3 3 .4 3 .2 2 .8 2 .3 2 .3 2 .1 1 .6 0 .5 -0 .1 0 .6 1 .1 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 3 -7 9 *•79 1 -7 9 8 7 4 .1 4 -7 5 1 -7 8 1 -7 8 2 3 .1 -4 .9 3 -7 5 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER . 9 9 ^ .2 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST* LOUIS MARCH 19, 1980 18 CORPORATE PR O FITS AFTER TAXES * CQHPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANfeE QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF POLLARE ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER t e r m in a l 1-75 2-75 3—75 4—75 1-76 2—76 3-76 4-76 1-77 Z -J 1 _ 3—77_ W 7 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-7» 3-79_____________ 2-75 +2*8 6 4 .6 ______ *-!? 74*6 113.6 7Ö.1 4-75 50.5 54.5 11.8 do ,3 54.0 57.9 35.8 64.9 42*0 41.8 23*7 30*1 2.7 3-76 35.2 33.7 19.0 21.5 4.2 V I. 0 / V* .V 29.7 27.7 15.2 16.1 3.2 3.5 1.3 1-77 29.6 27.8 17.3 18.4 9 .0 11.2 1 4 .0 2 8 .3 2 -7 7 28.4 26.7 17*6 1 8 .6 11.0 1 3 .2 1 5 .8 23*8 W.2 103.7 1 9 .4 ________ 107.«:____ 3 -7 7 *619 2 5 .2 17*2 1 8 .0 1 1 .5 1 3 .4 1 5 .4 2 0 .5 1 6 .8 14 .2 4-77 24.5 2 2 ,8 15.4 1 5 .9 1 0 .2 1 1 .5 1 2 .7 1 5 .8 1 1 .9 8 .3 2 .6 1 -7 8 21*8 2 0 .0 1 3 .3 13*5 8 .3 9 .1 9.7 1 1 .4 7 .6 3 .9 -0 .9 -4 .4 2 -7 8 2 5 .1 2 3 .7 1 7 .7 18*4 14 .1 15*6 1 7 .1 1 9 .9 1 8 .3 18*0 1 9 .3 2 8 .7 3 -7 8 23*8 2 2 .4 1 6 .8 1 7 .3 13*4 14*7 1 5 .8 1 8 .0 16.4 15 .8 16*2 2 1 .2 36.4 7.4 4-78 2 4 .0 _ 2 £ .7 ^ 17.6 1 8 .1 14*6 1 5 .8 1 7 .0 19*1 17.9 17.6 1 8 .3 2 2 .6 33*2 1 6 .8 27*1 A rJ9 2*.5 23*4 1 6 .6 19*2 | 6 .0 17 *1 1 8 ,5 2 0 .6 1 9 .6 19*7 2 0 .6 24*6 3 3 .1 2 1 .9 2 9 .9 2 -7 » 2 2 .4 2 1 .2 1 6 .7 17*0 14*0 l? tQ lit? 17»4 16,3 l? t 9 16 t l 19,6 ¿3,9 1? »9 16*9 lltfe 17t4. j7t8 15*0 _16*ji_16*9 18*4 17,4 \h i _5rî?__ Zl s l IU7.V ________ 1 0 6 . 7 ____ 1^*4 7 3 .2 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 124.6 __ 14<*.0 3 2 .7 19*?_ 139*3 r2 ± A - 1 4 » *a 1*«^__!£*£_t^_!4.1 2 -7 7 __ _________ 16*4-- _ 3 jlI 16*2 1>*.9 1 -7 5 »1*6 5.8 p ! 1+1 11 1-76 2-76 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 1*4_ 3 -7 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER » INMHE PASIS P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAfBC OF ST* L O U IS MARCH 19* 1980 SOURCES OF DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Source: 1929-72: 1973 1974 1975 1976-78 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230 The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-74, A Survey of (jurrent Business Supplement. Survey of Current Business, July 1976* Survey of Current Business, July 1977* Survey of Current Business, July 1978* Survey of Current Business, July 1979* The Survey is available from most district offices of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 19 IN V E N T O R IE S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 72 1 68 1 . 64 64 1 60 1.56 56 1 52 1.48 48 44 40 1. 3 8 - 36 1 1971 1 # RAT I OS B A S E D ON S E A S O N A L L Y REVI SED FROM 1 9 7 7 . S HA D E D AREAS LATEST D ATA REPRESENT PLOTTED: ADJUSTED PERIODS 1972 1973 1 DATA. 1976 SOURCE: OF B U S I N E S S 1977 1978 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1979 1980 OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. JANUARY P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED 20 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS